RAND corporation

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pages: 558 words: 164,627

The Pentagon's Brain: An Uncensored History of DARPA, America's Top-Secret Military Research Agency by Annie Jacobsen

Albert Einstein, Berlin Wall, colonial rule, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Fall of the Berlin Wall, game design, John Markoff, John von Neumann, license plate recognition, Livingstone, I presume, low earth orbit, megacity, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, Murray Gell-Mann, mutually assured destruction, Norman Mailer, operation paperclip, place-making, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, social intelligence, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, zero-sum game

“Quarterly Report on Viet Cong Motivation and Morale Project, October–December 1966.” RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, January 1967. ______. “Some Findings of the Viet Cong Motivation and Morale Study, January–June 1966: A Briefing to the Joint Chiefs of Staff.” RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, August 1, 1966. ______. Some Preliminary Observations on NVA Behavior During Infiltration. D-16339-PR. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, November 3, 1967. ______. “Southeast Asia Trip Report. Part 1. The Impact of Air Power in South Vietnam.” RM-4400/1-PR. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, December 1964. Gouré, Leon, Douglas Scott, and Anthony J. Russo. Some Findings of the Viet Cong Motivation and Morale Study: June–December 1965. RM-4911-2-ISA/ARPA. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, February 1966. Gouré, Leon, and C.

Kirtland AFB, NM, November 1961. Headquarters Department of the Army. Tactics in Counterinsurgency. Field Manual no. 3-24.2. Washington, DC, April 2009. Hickey, Gerald C. The Highland People of South Vietnam: Social and Economic Development. RM-5281/1-ARPA. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, September 1967. ______. The Major Ethnic Groups of the South Vietnamese Highlands. RM-4041-ARPA. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, April 1964. ______. “The Military Advisor and His Foreign Counterpart: The Case in Vietnam.” RM-4882-ARPA. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, March 1965. Historical Division Joint Secretariat, Joint Chiefs of Staff. The History of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the War in Vietnam, 1960–1968. Part 3. 87-F-0671, July 1970. Historical Division Office of Information Services, Air Force Special Weapons Center.

Utility of Modeling and Simulation in the Department of Defense: Initial Data Collection. IDA Document D-1825. Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria, VA, May 1996. Zasloff, Joseph J. Origins of the Insurgency in South Vietnam: The Role of the Southern Vietminh Cadres. RM-5163/2-ISA/ARPA. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, March 1967. ______. Political Motivation of the Viet Cong: The Vietminh Regroupees. RM-4703/2-ISA/ARPA. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, August 1966. ______. The Role of North Vietnam in the Southern Insurgency. RM-4140-PR. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, July 1964. Statements to Congress Abizaid, General John P. Commander, U.S. Central Command, “Testimony Before Congress, Senate Armed Services Committee,” September 25, 2003. Alexander, Jane A. Acting Director, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, “Statement Submitted to the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities Committee on Armed Services,” U.S.


pages: 323 words: 100,772

Prisoner's Dilemma: John Von Neumann, Game Theory, and the Puzzle of the Bomb by William Poundstone

Albert Einstein, anti-communist, cuban missile crisis, Douglas Hofstadter, Frank Gehry, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, Jacquard loom, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, RAND corporation, Richard Feynman, statistical model, the market place, zero-sum game

This will undoubtedly be the case if the authors have succeeded in establishing a new exact science—the science of economics.” In the years after the publication of Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, game theory and its terms became popular buzzwords with economists, social scientists, and military strategists. One of the places where game theory found immediate acceptance was the RAND Corporation. RAND, the prototypic “think tank” was founded at the Air Force’s behest shortly after World War II. The RAND Corporation’s original purpose was to perform strategic studies on intercontinental nuclear war. RAND hired many of the scientists leaving wartime defense work, and took on as consultants an even larger orbit of stellar thinkers. RAND thought highly enough of game theory to hire von Neumann as a consultant and to devote a great deal of effort not only to military applications of game theory but also to basic research in the field.

Robert Oppenheimer at unveiling of the Institute for Advanced Study’s computer. (Photo by Alan W. Richards, © Mrs. Alan W. Richards) John von Neumann, confined to wheelchair, receives the Medal of Freedom from President Eisenhower. This was von Neumann’s last public appearance. (Photo © UPI/Bettmann Newsphotos) Robert Axelrod. Bertrand Russell. (Photo © UPI/Bettmann Newsphotos) 5 THE RAND CORPORATION The RAND Corporation is housed in a unspectacular low-and mid-rise complex a block from the beach at 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica. Blocky, in colors of pinkish terra-cotta and putty white, RAND’s buildings resemble those that might occupy a California state college campus. Discrete signs identify the complex and warn that it is private property. There are no obtrusive gates or fences, and the landscaping of palms and large-leafed tropicals harks back to that favored in California in the 1950s.

Herman Kahn, one of RAND’s best-known analysts, interrupted his thinking about the unthinkable to take a midday swim in the Pacific. When John von Neumann visited, he usually stayed in the nearby Georgian Hotel, still in business, now as an oceanfront home for senior citizens. To many, the RAND Corporation epitomizes modern Machiavellianism. Both hawks and doves are apt to perceive it as a secret lair where amoral geniuses conspire darkly. RAND was well known enough to rate as a target for a Pete Seeger satirical folk song in the 1960s (“The RAND Corporation’s the boon of the world/They think all day long for a fee./They sit and play games about going up in flames/For counters they use you and me …”1. Business Week reported, “The military professionals dub these civilian interlopers into the national security arena ‘defense intellectuals,’ ‘RANDsters,’ ‘technocrats,’ and worse.


pages: 463 words: 118,936

Darwin Among the Machines by George Dyson

Ada Lovelace, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, British Empire, carbon-based life, cellular automata, Claude Shannon: information theory, combinatorial explosion, computer age, Danny Hillis, Donald Davies, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, finite state, IFF: identification friend or foe, invention of the telescope, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, low earth orbit, Menlo Park, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, packet switching, pattern recognition, phenotype, RAND corporation, Richard Feynman, spectrum auction, strong AI, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Turing machine, Von Neumann architecture, zero-sum game

., Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata (Urbana: Universsity of Illinois Press, 1966), 75. 36.John von Neumann, “Defense in Atomic War,” Journal of the American Ordnance Association (1955): 22; reprinted in John von Neumann, Theory of Games, Astrophysics, Hydrodynamics and Meteorology, vol. 6 of Collected Works (Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1963), 524. 37.von Neumann, “Defense in Atomic War” (1955), 23; (1963), 525. 38.RAND Articles of Incorporation, 1948, in The RAND Corporation: The First Fifteen Years (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1963). 39.Contract of 2 March 1946 establishing project RAND; in Bruce Smith, The RAND Corporation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966), 30. 40.A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1955; reprint. New York: Free Press, 1966), xii (page citation is to the reprint edition). 41.Louis Ridenour and Francis Clauser, Preliminary Design of an Experimental Earth-Circling Spaceship, U.S. Air Force Project RAND Report SM-11827, 2 May 1946, 2, 16. 42.RAND, The RAND Corporation, 23. 43.Paul Baran, interview by Judy O’Neill, 5 March 1990, OH 182, Charles Babbage Institute, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. 44.J.

Chester, Cost of a Hardened, Nationwide Buried Cable Network, RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-2627-PR, 1 October 1960. 45.Baran, interview. 46.Ibid. 47.Paul Baran, Summary Overview, vol. 11 of On Distributed Communications, RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-3767-PR, August 1964, 1. 48.Paul Baran, “Packet Switching,” in John C. McDonald, ed., Fundamentals of Digital Switching, 2d ed. (New York: Plenum Publishing, 1990), 204. 49.Baran, interview. 50.Paul Baran, Reliable Digital Communications Systems Utilizing Unreliable Network Repeater Nodes, RAND Corporation Memorandum P-1995, 27 May 1960, 1–2. 51.Baran, Digital Communications Systems, 7. 52.Paul Baran, History, Alternative Approaches, and Comparisons, vol. 5 of On Distributed Communications, RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-3097-PR, August 1964, 8. 53.Warren S.

., New York: John Wiley, 1947), 2 (page citation is to the 2d edition). 3.Loren Eiseley, Darwin’s Century (New York: Doubleday, 1958), 39. 4.André-Marie Ampère, Considérations sur la théorie mathématique du jeu (Lyons, France: Frères Perisse, 1802), 3. (Author’s translation.) 5.Jacob Marschak, “Neumann’s and Morgenstern’s New Approach to Static Economics,” Journal of Political Economy 54, no. 2 (April 1946): 114. 6.J. D. Williams, The Compleat Strategyst (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1954), 216. 7.John Nash, Parallel Control, RAND Corporation Research Memorandum RM-1361, 27 August 1954, 14. 8.John von Neumann, “A Model of General Economic Equilibrium,” Review of Economic Studies 13 (1945): 1. 9.John von Neumann, The Computer and the Brain (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1958), 79–82. 10.John von Neumann, 1948, “General and Logical Theory of Automata,” in Lloyd A. Jeffress, ed., Cerebral Mechanisms in Behavior: The Hixon Symposium (New York: Hafner, 1951), 24. 11.Stan Ulam, quoted by Gian-Carlo Rota, “The Barrier of Meaning,” Letters in Mathematical Physics 10 (1985): 99. 12.von Neumann, “Automata,” 24. 13.Stan Ulam, quoted by Rota, “The Barrier of Meaning,” 98. 14.D.


pages: 204 words: 53,261

The Tyranny of Metrics by Jerry Z. Muller

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Atul Gawande, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, Chelsea Manning, collapse of Lehman Brothers, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, deskilling, Edward Snowden, Erik Brynjolfsson, Frederick Winslow Taylor, George Akerlof, Hyman Minsky, intangible asset, Jean Tirole, job satisfaction, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, performance metric, price mechanism, RAND corporation, school choice, Second Machine Age, selection bias, Steven Levy, total factor productivity, transaction costs, WikiLeaks

., “Public Reporting of Mortality Rates for Hospitalized Medicare Patients and Trends in Mortality for Reported Conditions,” Annals of Internal Medicine, published online May 31, 2016. 21. M. W. Friedberg et al., “A Methodological Critique of the ProPublica Surgeon Scorecard” (Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., 2015), http://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE170.html, and David M. Shahian et al., “Rating the Raters: The Inconsistent Quality of Health Care Performance Measurement,” Annals of Surgery 264, no. 1 (July 2016), pp. 36–38. 22. Cheryl L. Damberg et al., Measuring Success in Health Care Value-Based Purchasing Programs: Summary and Recommendations (Rand Corporation, 2014), p. 18. Rachel M. Werner et al., “The Effect of Pay-for-Performance in Hospitals: Lessons for Quality Improvement,” Health Affairs 30, no. 4 (April 2011), pp. 690–98. Similarly, and most recently, Aaron Mendelson et al., “The Effects of Pay-for-Performance Programs on Health, Health Care Use, and Processes of Care: A Systematic Review,” Annals of Internal Medicine 165, no. 5 (March 7, 2017), pp. 341–53. 23.

In fact, if you were going to be faithful to the data, you would conclude that public reporting slowed down the rate of improvement in patient outcomes.”20 As if that were not enough of a problem, many of these public rankings, such as ProPublica’s surgical report card, are based on what experts regard as dubious criteria, as likely to be misleading as genuinely illuminating.21 Another recent report, this time from the Rand Corporation, came to similar conclusions. Most studies of pay-for-performance, it noted, examined process and intermediate outcomes rather than final outcomes, that is, whether the patient recovered. “Overall,” it reports, “studies with stronger methodological designs were less likely to identify significant improvements associated with pay-for-performance programs. And identified effects were relatively small.”22 Nor was this finding new.

And since at least the Vietnam era, it has tried to use metrics in its counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns, most recently in Iraq and Afghanistan. Though a small part of the U.S. military’s use of metrics, COIN is a particularly instructive case, with larger ramifications for our topic. For not only has the military made extensive use of metrics in the interests of accountability and transparency, its efforts have also been scrutinized by academic researchers working at American military academies and at the Rand Corporation, which conducts research for the Department of Defense. Some of these researchers are both soldiers and scholars, while others have a more conventional academic background. What characterizes their work is close contact with actual experience, either in the form of direct participation in counterinsurgency or of access to recently deployed officers. Writing in good part for policymakers and officers who will be deployed in the future, the stakes of their scholarship are high.


Turing's Cathedral by George Dyson

1919 Motor Transport Corps convoy, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Benoit Mandelbrot, British Empire, Brownian motion, cellular automata, cloud computing, computer age, Danny Hillis, dark matter, double helix, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, finite state, Georg Cantor, Henri Poincaré, housing crisis, IFF: identification friend or foe, indoor plumbing, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, John von Neumann, mandelbrot fractal, Menlo Park, Murray Gell-Mann, Norbert Wiener, Norman Macrae, packet switching, pattern recognition, Paul Erdős, Paul Samuelson, phenotype, planetary scale, RAND corporation, random walk, Richard Feynman, SETI@home, social graph, speech recognition, Thorstein Veblen, Turing complete, Turing machine, Von Neumann architecture

Pseudo-random numbers could be generated within a computer as needed, but as von Neumann warned, “any one who considers arithmetical methods of producing random digits is, of course, in a state of sin.”71 The U.S. Air Force’s Project RAND (progenitor of the RAND Corporation), for whom von Neumann was consulting in Santa Monica, took it upon themselves, in April 1947, to build an electronic roulette wheel and compile a list of one million random numbers, available first as punched cards and later expanded and published as a book. “Because of the very nature of the tables, it did not seem necessary to proofread every page of the final manuscript in order to catch random errors,” the editors explained.72 Between June 29 and July 1, 1949, a conference on the Monte Carlo method—sponsored by the RAND Corporation, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the National Bureau of Standards’ Institute for Numerical Analysis—was held at UCLA.

Klára von Neumann to Harris Mayer, April 8, 1949, KVN. 71. John von Neumann, “Various Techniques Used in Connection with Random Digits,” in A. S. Householder, ed., Monte Carlo Method, Proceedings of a Symposium held June 29, 30 and July 1, 1949, in Los Angeles, California, under the sponsorship of the RAND Corporation, and the National Bureau of Standards, with the cooperation of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, National Bureau of Standards Applied Mathematics Series 12, issued June 11, 1951, p. 36. 72. A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1955), p. xii. 73. Klára von Neumann to Stan Ulam, May 15, 1949, SUAPS. 74. Klára von Neumann to Carson Mark, June 28, 1949, KVN. 75. Herman Kahn, “Use of Different Monte Carlo Sampling Techniques,” in Meyer, ed., Symposium on Monte Carlo Methods, p. 147.

Teller, “The Work of Many People,” p. 268. 32. Ibid., p. 269. 33. Edward Teller, Testimony, United States District Court, District of Minnesota, Fourth Division, 4-67 Civil 138: Honeywell, Inc., Plaintiff, v. Sperry Rand Corporation and Illinois Scientific Developments, Inc., Defendants, Transcript of Proceedings, vol. 47, Minneapolis, Minn., Monday, August 30, 1971, p. 6702. 34. Hans A. Bethe, “Comments on the History of the H-Bomb,” written in 1954, declassified in 1980, with a new introduction by Hans Bethe, in Los Alamos Science (Fall 1982): 47. 35. Teller, Testimony, Honeywell, Inc., Plaintiff, v. Sperry Rand Corporation and Illinois Scientific Developments, Inc., Defendants, p. 6771. 36. E. Bretscher, S. P. Frankel, D. K. Froman, N. Metropolis, P. Morrison, L. W. Nordheim, E. Teller, A. Turkevich, and J. Von Neumann, “Report on the Conference on the Super,” LA-575, February 16, 1950. 37.


pages: 1,117 words: 270,127

On Thermonuclear War by Herman Kahn

British Empire, business cycle, defense in depth, John von Neumann, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, oil shale / tar sands, Project Plowshare, RAND corporation, zero-sum game

In spite of the elaborate in-house capabilities, the Army and Air Force still contract out with private agencies to do the special kind of long-range planning and the analyses that we have been discussing. The Army's contracts are with the Operations Research Office (Johns Hopkins), Stanford Research Institute, and others. The Air Force contracts are with The RAND Corporation, Anser, Institute of Air Weapons Research, Mitre Corporation, and others. The RAND Corporation, with which I have been for some years, is the largest and possibly the most prestigious of these organizations. It has over 900 employees, approximately two-thirds of whom have technical backgrounds. Its Air Force budget runs to some $13,000,000 annually. In spite of its size and expense the RAND Corporation has no formal staff responsibilities. Only a small percentage of the studies undertaken at the organization are created "to order" and must meet deadlines imposed from outside. In essence, RAND researchers have access to every level and every part of the Air Force, yet nobody has to act on their advice and they do not (usually) have to research exactly what outsiders think they want at the moment.

It is with the hope of decreasing the probability of catastrophe and alleviating the consequences of thermonuclear war if it comes that I offer these pages to all with the interest—and the courage—to read them. Herman Kahn Princeton, New Jersey June 10, 1960 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Concepts on which these three lectures are based originated in work done under the auspices of The RAND Corporation and continued at The Center of International Studies at Princeton University while I was on leave of absence from RAND. While many of the things that I discuss grew out of studies done by The RAND Corporation, the presentation and synthesis are my own. I accept full responsibility for them. However, I owe a tremendous debt to many friends and colleagues—so many that it would be impossible for me to identify them all. I will content myself with mentioning some of the major debts. In particular, I owe a good deal to early work done by E.

Digby in air defense, by Bernard Brodie in the general field of strategic planning, by Jack Hirshleifer on civil defense, and by Albert Wohlstetter, Frederic Hoffman, and H. S. Rowen on survival of strategic forces. Much of Lecture I, parts of Lecture II, and the Appendix derive from joint effort devoted to a RAND Corporation civil defense study which I led. This study is reported in RAND Report R-322-RC, A Report on a Study of Non-Military Defense, July 1,1958. Because so much of the book is based on the findings of this study, I would like to repeat here some remarks that prefaced the report on that study: The study . . . [was] supported by The RAND Corporation as part of its program of RAND-sponsored research. In addition to its work for the United States Air Force and other government agencies, the Corporation regularly sponsors, with its own funds, research projects in areas of importance to national security and public welfare.


pages: 325 words: 90,659

Narconomics: How to Run a Drug Cartel by Tom Wainwright

Airbnb, barriers to entry, bitcoin, business process, call centre, collateralized debt obligation, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, failed state, financial innovation, illegal immigration, Mark Zuckerberg, microcredit, price mechanism, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Sam Peltzman, Skype

Look at the evolution of the price of a kilogram of the drug, as it makes its way from the Andes to Los Angeles. To make that much cocaine, one needs somewhere in the neighborhood of 350 kilograms of dried coca leaves. Based on price data from Colombia obtained by Gallego and Rico, that would cost about $385. Once this is converted into a kilo of cocaine, it can sell in Colombia for $800. According to figures pulled together by Beau Kilmer and Peter Reuter at the RAND Corporation, an American think tank, that same kilo is worth $2,200 by the time it is exported from Colombia, and it has climbed to $14,500 by the time it is imported to the United States. After being transferred to a midlevel dealer, its price climbs to $19,500. Finally, it is sold by street-level dealers for $78,000.10 Even these soaring figures do not quite get across the scale of the markups involved in the cocaine business.

The evidence is that they charge quite reasonable prices for doing so: witnesses say that the New York mafia’s fee for fixing prices in the concrete industry was only 2 percent of the contract price; in Sicily, the construction industry reportedly paid 5 percent to the mafia (of which it kept 3 percent and used the remaining 2 percent to pay bribes to politicians). If the price-fixing agreement means that a firm can jack up its rates substantially, these fees are well worth it. (And it seems they can: a study in the 1980s by the RAND Corporation found that residential customers on Long Island were paying 15 percent more for their garbage collection than they would in a competitive market, and commercial customers were paying 50 percent more.)12 The agreements were so robust that garbage-collection firms were even able to buy and sell “contracts” to serve particular customers or neighborhoods, with the exclusive rights guaranteed by the mafia.

If Signor Pucci were around today and involved in the drugs business, the “multi-commodity drug broker” is surely the one to whom he would want to marry his daughter. Occupying the very middle of the network, these middlemen are the best-connected people in the business. Furthermore, acting as the link between the wholesalers and the retailers, they have a high degree of “betweenness centrality.” The findings of the Home Office report seem to agree with other studies on pricing in the drugs business. The RAND Corporation found that the single-biggest leap in the price of cocaine in the United States occurs during the transfer from middle dealers to retailers, when the price of a kilo shoots up from $19,500 to $78,000.10 If the police are to focus their energies in one place, it may be that they cause the most disruption not by targeting the small fry on the streets, or even the big fish doing the importation, but instead by aiming squarely at the middle, where the dealers are the best connected and, it seems, making the most money.


pages: 592 words: 161,798

The Future of War by Lawrence Freedman

Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, British Empire, colonial rule, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Donald Trump, drone strike, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Google Glasses, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Markoff, long peace, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, open economy, pattern recognition, Peace of Westphalia, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, speech recognition, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, the scientific method, uranium enrichment, urban sprawl, Valery Gerasimov, WikiLeaks, zero day

Both Groeteschele and Strangelove were modelled on Herman Kahn, who had written the bestselling account of nuclear strategy, On Thermonuclear War, published in 1960, and had become something of a celebrity as a result of his provocative analyses and an apparent tendency to playfulness when talking about mass death. Kahn was a favourite target of critics, and his humanity had been questioned—‘no one could write like this; no one could think like this.’22 He had written his book at the RAND Corporation, the most famous of the ‘think-tanks’ where the mysteries of nuclear strategy were explored, although he left soon after its publication to set up his own Hudson Institute, in part because his colleagues at RAND objected to his showmanship and because he felt they were becoming too bureaucratic.23 In both movies the Kahn character allows nuclear war to be discussed in terms of a cold rationality, detached from any human emotion.

It was therefore vital to demonstrate without ambiguity that there was no premium in a first strike. This should encourage both sides to be more cautious and concentrate on diplomacy in a crisis. This was the aspect of the nuclear relationship that Schelling had identified as the key to avoiding war through miscalculation. Whether or not a first strike option could be developed was the pressing issue of the moment. In 1954 a team at the RAND Corporation, led by Albert Wohlstetter, was asked to consider the optimum basing configurations for the US strategic bomber force. They introduced as a key criterion vulnerability to a surprise attack and in so doing demonstrated how the United States might be caught out by a calculating Soviet Union with a pre-emptive strike.12 This was the modern-day version of war fiction, except that there was no character development or narrative tension.

The West’s victory over communism was seen as a triumph for the democratic way of life. If others followed the same path there was a possibility of a transcendent community of shared values that would produce peace if only because there would be nothing to fight about. But the spread of democracy was bound to be contentious and would be resisted by autocrats. As European communism imploded Francis Fukuyama of the RAND Corporation announced that this was not just ‘the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of post-war history’, but ‘the end of history as such’. By this he meant ‘the end point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.’2 Talking of the ‘end of history’ invited misinterpretation. He was not suggesting that there would be no more conflict, or other transformational events, only that there was now no serious ideological alternative to the political and economic model that had been embraced by the Western world, to their enormous benefit.


Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren't Fair (And What We Can Do About It) by William Poundstone

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, business cycle, Debian, desegregation, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, Everything should be made as simple as possible, global village, guest worker program, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, invisible hand, jimmy wales, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, manufacturing employment, Nash equilibrium, Paul Samuelson, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prisoner's dilemma, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, slashdot, the map is not the territory, Thomas Bayes, transcontinental railway, Unsafe at Any Speed, Y2K

Black himself must have written the jacket copy: "Whatever the merits or demerits of the book, it can safely be said that there is no other which has at+ tempted to deal with this subject." Black was not entirely out of the loop. In December 1948 the RAND Corporation's Joseph Goldsen wrote Black that "a group of 52 The Big Bang American mathematicians and political scientists" were interested in his work and would appreciate receiving offprints. Black had never heard of the RAND Corporation. He checked it out with the British Consul in San Francisco, An official informed him that "the activities of the Rand Corporation are highly classified" and the "United States Air Force would much prefer that, if you decided to respond to Mr. Goldsen's enquiry, it should be communicated to the Corporation through themselves." Black must have decided he wanted nothing to do with the RAND Corporation and its highly classified activities. He never replied to Goldsen. For the past half century scholars and journalists have struggled to understand what the impossibility theorem means.

Center for Legislative Archives) To Scott Contents Prologue: The Wizard and the Lizard 3 THE PROBLEM 25 I. Game Theory Kurt Code! • Adolf Hitler· Albert Einstein· Oskar Morgenstern· Bambi· the u.s. Constitution· Joseph Goebbels • God· Kaiser Wilhelm II • John von Neumann" Kenneth Arrow" J\'larxism • Alfred Tarski • intransitivity· Harold Hotelling· ice cream· John Hicks· "Scissors, Paper. Stone" • Duncan Black· the "forty-seven-year-old wife of a machinist liVing in Dayton. Ohio" • the RAND Corporation· Condoleezzrl Rice· Olaf Helmer· Harry Truman· Joseph Stalin· Abram Bergson 2. The Big Bang Michelle Kwan • the Great Flip.Flop • 45 Repuhlicans • Democrats • Communists· Sidney Morgenbesser • irrelevant alternatives" /\.'tichelangelo • Joe McCarthy • Winston Churchill • Wooclrow Wilson· Boss Tweed· Amartya Sen Contents 3. A Short History of Vote Splitting 59 Spoilers· the electoral college· James Polk· Henry Clay· James Birney· cholera· Zachary Taylor· Martin Van Buren· Lewis Cass • Abraham Lincoln· Stephen Douglas • John Breckinridge • John Bell • James Blaine • moral values • temperate Republican women • Grover Cleveland • John St.

The presidential candidate who captures her vote will win the election. There is nothing too mysterious about this. The median voter, like everyone else, favors the candidate whose views are closest to her own. This means that the candidate who captures the center will win a two-way race. Six years Into his peripatetic career as grad student, Arrow accepted an unusual job. He agreed to go to California to think about nuclear doomsday. The RAND Corporation was the greatest monument to von Neumann's-and Morgenstern's-game theory. RAND began as the air force's Project RAND (for Research ANd Development), a scientific consultancy initially contracted to Douglas Aircraft. Conceived as a peacetime Manhattan Project, RAND was recruiting many of the nation's best minds to ponder the challenges of the nuclear age. 41 GAMING THE VOTE Arrow heard about RAND from his wife's former employer, Abe Girschick.


pages: 254 words: 61,387

This Could Be Our Future: A Manifesto for a More Generous World by Yancey Strickler

basic income, big-box store, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, effective altruism, Elon Musk, financial independence, gender pay gap, global supply chain, housing crisis, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Nash: game theory, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Louis Pasteur, Mark Zuckerberg, medical bankruptcy, new economy, Oculus Rift, off grid, offshore financial centre, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Snapchat, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, stem cell, Steve Jobs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Travis Kalanick, universal basic income, white flight

The decade before, America dropped the first (and hopefully only) atomic bombs in history, on Japan. They unleashed unprecedented power that became even scarier after the Soviet Union got the bomb, too. As the two nations faced off, the newly invented Doomsday Clock—created to reflect mankind’s proximity to self-annihilation—read just two minutes from the apocalypse. The Defense Department asked a group of scientists and mathematicians at an elite think tank called the RAND Corporation to come up with a strategy for what the United States should do in this new nuclear age. To study the situation, the researchers turned to a then-new field called game theory. Game theory uses mathematical models to determine the optimal, rational strategies in games and other strategic conflicts. When applied to the nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union, game theory allowed the scientists to consider different approaches the United States might take, how the USSR might respond, and where things might go from there.

Some of the first people to play Prisoner’s Dilemma were the secretaries at RAND. Many of them chose to stay loyal to their partners. Their relationships were what mattered to them. The secretaries achieved the ideal outcome of the game. According to the model of rationality set by game theory, the secretaries weren’t playing correctly. Pursuing your immediate self-interest was the rational thing to do. * * * ■ ■ ■ ■ The RAND Corporation published The Compleat Strategyst with the goal of expanding the application of game theory in day-to-day life. “We believe it possible that Game Theory, as it develops—or something like it—may become an important concept and force in many phases of life,” author J. D. Williams wrote. They were right. Game theory became a tool for a new kind of “hyperrational” way of thinking. A view that, among other things, teaches the rationality of maximizing one’s self-interest.

And they’d be like, Sure, it sounds awful to you. But we’re a data-driven company, so why don’t we let the data decide? Why don’t we do a test? And we’d do a test, and it would show that maybe people would unsubscribe at a slightly higher rate, but the increase in purchasing would more than make up for it. You’d get in a situation where it doesn’t feel right, but it does seem like a rational decision. The RAND Corporation’s book on game theory defined what’s rational as “to gain as much from the game as a player can, safely, in the face of a skillful opponent who is pursuing an antithetical goal.” In the real world, getting as much as you can right now often comes at a long-term cost. And once growth expectations are set, that mitigating word “safely” becomes increasingly optional when it comes to gaining “as much from the game as a player can.”


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Dark Territory: The Secret History of Cyber War by Fred Kaplan

Cass Sunstein, computer age, data acquisition, drone strike, dumpster diving, Edward Snowden, game design, hiring and firing, index card, Internet of things, Jacob Appelbaum, John Markoff, John von Neumann, kremlinology, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, national security letter, packet switching, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, Stuxnet, uranium enrichment, Y2K, zero day

David Kahn, The Codebreakers (New York: Scribner; rev. ed., 1996), Ch. 14. a man named Donald Latham: Warner, “Cybersecurity: A Pre-history”; and interviews. In April 1967: Willis H. Ware, Security and Privacy in Computer Systems (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, P-3544, 1967). This led to a 1970 report by a Defense Science Board task force, known as “the Ware Panel,” Security Controls for Computer Systems (declassified by RAND Corporation as R-609-1, 1979); and interviews. He well understood: Willis H. Ware, RAND and the Information Evolution: A History in Essays and Vignettes (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2008). Ware was particularly concerned: Ibid., 152ff. In 1980, Lawrence Lasker and Walter Parkes: Extra features, WarGames: The 25th Anniversary Edition, Blu-ray disc; and interviews. The National Security Agency had its roots: See Kahn, The Codebreakers, 352.

“It took decades”: Department of Defense, Defense Science Board, Task Force Report, Resilient Military Systems and the Advanced Cyber Threat, 51. Actually, in the mid-1990s, the RAND Corporation did conduct a series of war games that simulated threats and responses in cyber warfare; several included upper-midlevel Pentagon officials and White House aides as players, but no insiders took them seriously; the games came just a little bit too early to have impact. The games were summarized in Roger C. Molander, Andrew S. Riddile, Peter A. Wilson, Strategic Information Warfare: A New Face of War (Washington, D.C.: RAND Corporation, 1996). The dearth of impact comes from interviews.The presented a ninety-page paper, explaining how they did the hack (and spelling out disturbing implications), at the August 2015 Black Hat conference in Las Vegas (Remote Exploitation of an Unaltered Passenger Vehicle,” illmatics.com//remote7.20Car7.20Hacking.pdf).

In April 1967, shortly before ARPANET’s rollout, an engineer named Willis Ware wrote a paper called “Security and Privacy in Computer Systems” and delivered it at the semiannual Joint Computer Conference in New York City. Ware was a pioneer in the field of computers, dating back to the late 1940s, when there barely was such a field. At Princeton’s Institute for Advanced Studies, he’d been a protégé of John von Neumann, helping design one of the first electrical computers. For years now, he headed the computer science department at the RAND Corporation, an Air Force–funded think tank in Santa Monica, California. He well understood the point of ARPANET, lauded its goals, admired its ambition; but he was worried about some implications that its managers had overlooked. In his paper, Ware laid out the risks of what he called “resource-sharing” and “on-line” computer networks. As long as computers stood in isolated chambers, security wouldn’t be a problem.


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In Pursuit of the Traveling Salesman: Mathematics at the Limits of Computation by William J. Cook

complexity theory, computer age, Computer Numeric Control, four colour theorem, index card, John von Neumann, linear programming, NP-complete, P = NP, p-value, RAND corporation, Richard Feynman, traveling salesman, Turing machine

In the words of Alan Hoffman and Philip Wolfe, Whitney served “possibly as a messenger from Menger” in bringing the salesman to the mathematics community.23 And on to the RAND Corporation There is not a record of the study of the salesman problem, under the TSP name, in the late 1930s and into the 1940s, but by the end of the 1940s it had become a known challenge. At this point the center of TSP action had moved from Princeton to RAND, coinciding with Flood’s relocation to California. Princeton University’s Harold Kuhn writes the following in a December 2008 e-mail letter. The traveling salesman problem was known by name around Fine Hall by 1949. For instance, it was one of a number of problems for which the RAND corporation offered a money prize. I believe that the list was posted on a bulletin board in Fine Hall in the academic year 1948–49.

QA164.C69 2012 511’.5—dc23 2011030626 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Minion Printed on acid-free paper ∞ Typeset by S R Nova Pvt Ltd, Bangalore, India Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Listen, mate, I’ve traveled every road in this here land. —Geoff Mack, Lyrics to “I’ve Been Everywhere.” Contents Preface xi 1 Challenges 1 Tour of the United States 2 An Impossible Task? 6 One Problem at a Time 10 Road Map of the Book 16 2 Origins of the Problem 19 Before the Mathematicians 19 Euler and Hamilton 27 Vienna to Harvard to Princeton 35 And on to the RAND Corporation 38 A Statistical View 39 3 The Salesman in Action 44 Road Trips 44 Mapping Genomes 49 Aiming Telescopes, X-rays, and Lasers Guiding Industrial Machines 53 Organizing Data 56 Tests for Microprocessors 59 Scheduling Jobs 60 And More 60 4 Searching for a Tour 62 The 48-States Problem 62 Growing Trees and Tours 65 Alterations While You Wait 75 Borrowing from Physics and Biology The DIMACS Challenge 91 Tour Champions 92 51 84 viii Contents 5 Linear Programming 94 General-Purpose Model 94 The Simplex Algorithm 99 Two for the Price of One: LP Duality 105 The Degree LP Relaxation of the TSP 108 Eliminating Subtours 113 A Perfect Relaxation 118 Integer Programming 122 Operations Research 125 6 Cutting Planes 127 The Cutting-Plane Method 127 A Catalog of TSP Inequalities 131 The Separation Problem 137 Edmonds’s Glimpse of Heaven 142 Cutting Planes for Integer Programming 144 7 Branching 146 Breaking Up 146 The Search Party 148 Branch-and-bound for Integer Programming 8 Big Computing 153 World Records 153 The TSP on a Grand Scale 163 9 Complexity 168 A Model of Computation 169 The Campaign of Jack Edmonds 171 Cook’s Theorem and Karp’s List 174 State of the TSP 178 Do We Need Computers?

By an ingenious application of linear programming—a mathematical tool recently used to solve production-scheduling problems—it took only a few weeks for the California experts to calculate “by hand” the shortest route to cover the 49 cities: 12,345 miles. The California experts were George Dantzig, Ray Fulkerson, and Selmer Johnson, part of an exceptionally strong and influential center for the new field of mathematical programming, housed at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica. The RAND team’s guarantee involves some pretty mathematics that we take up later in the book. For now it is best to think of the guarantee as a proof, like those we learned in geometry class. The Dantzig et al. proof establishes that no tour through the 49 cities can have length less than 12,345 miles. Matching the proof with their tour of precisely this length shows that this particular instance of the TSP has been settled, once and for all.


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Surveillance Valley: The Rise of the Military-Digital Complex by Yasha Levine

23andMe, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, AltaVista, Amazon Web Services, Anne Wojcicki, anti-communist, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, bitcoin, borderless world, British Empire, call centre, Chelsea Manning, cloud computing, collaborative editing, colonial rule, computer age, computerized markets, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, digital map, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, drone strike, Edward Snowden, El Camino Real, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, Elon Musk, fault tolerance, George Gilder, ghettoisation, global village, Google Chrome, Google Earth, Google Hangouts, Howard Zinn, hypertext link, IBM and the Holocaust, index card, Jacob Appelbaum, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, life extension, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, PageRank, Paul Buchheit, peer-to-peer, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, plutocrats, Plutocrats, private military company, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Ross Ulbricht, Satoshi Nakamoto, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, slashdot, Snapchat, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Telecommunications Act of 1996, telepresence, telepresence robot, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Hackers Conference, uber lyft, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, WikiLeaks

Anders Sweetland, Rallying Potential among the North Vietnamese Armed Forces (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, December 1970). 63. Although many of these ARPA studies had the appearance of scientific objectivity, those that produced results that fit preconceived notions or that provided rationales for existing military doctrine got wider play and attention; those that didn’t were buried or ignored. 64. Remote Area Conflict Research and Engineering Semi-annual Report (Washington, DC: Advanced Research Projects Agency, Project AGILE, July 1–December 31, 1963). 65. H. P. Phillips and D. A. Wilson, Certain Effects of Culture and Social Organization on Internal Security in Thailand (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, June 1964). 66. Carolyn Fluehr-Lobban, Ethics and the Profession of Anthropology: Dialogue for Ethically Conscious Practice (Lanham, MD: AltaMira Press, 2002), 60–61. 67.

ARPA doled out millions to studies of Vietnamese peasants, captured North Vietnamese fighters, and rebellious hill tribes of northern Thailand. Swarms of ARPA contractors—anthropologists, political scientists, linguists, and sociologists—passed through poor villages, putting people under a microscope, measuring, gathering data, interviewing, studying, assessing, and reporting.58 The idea was to understand the enemy, to know their hopes, their fears, their dreams, their social networks, and their relationships to power.59 The RAND Corporation, under an ARPA contract, did most of this work. Based out of a building overlooking the wide, tan beaches of Santa Monica, RAND was a powerful military and intelligence contractor that had been created by the US Air Force several decades earlier as a private-public research agency.60 In the 1950s, RAND was central to formulating America’s belligerent nuclear policy. In the 1960s, it added a big counterinsurgency division and became a de facto privatized extension of ARPA’s Project Agile.

Anthony Russo, a RAND contractor who worked on ARPA projects and who would later help Daniel Ellsberg leak the Pentagon Papers, discovered that when results of ARPA studies contradicted military wishes, his bosses simply suppressed and discarded them.77 “The more I grew to admire Asian culture—especially Vietnamese,” Russo wrote in 1972, “the more I was outraged at the Orwellian horror of the U.S. military machine grinding through Vietnam and destroying everything in its path. Tens of thousands of Vietnamese girls were turned into prostitutes; streets that had been lined with beautiful trees were denuded to make room for the big military trucks. I was fed up with the horror and disgusted by the petulance and pettiness with which the RAND Corporation conducted its business.”78 He believed that ARPA’s entire Project Agile apparatus was a giant racket used by military planners to give scientific cover to whichever existing war policies they were intent on pursuing. This wasn’t cutting-edge military science, but a boondoggle and a fraud. The only people benefiting from Project Agile were the private military contracting firms hired to do the work.


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Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order by Parag Khanna

"Robert Solow", Admiral Zheng, affirmative action, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, Bartolomé de las Casas, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, call centre, capital controls, central bank independence, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, complexity theory, continuation of politics by other means, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, different worldview, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, energy security, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, flex fuel, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global supply chain, haute couture, Hernando de Soto, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, invisible hand, Islamic Golden Age, Khyber Pass, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, land reform, low cost airline, low skilled workers, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, open economy, Parag Khanna, Pax Mongolica, Pearl River Delta, pirate software, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, Potemkin village, price stability, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, South China Sea, special economic zone, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Thomas L Friedman, trade route, trickle-down economics, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce

Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005. ———. Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002. Oliker, Olga, and David A. Shlapak. U.S. Interests in Central Asia: Policy Priorities and Military Roles. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2005. Oliker, Olga, and Tanya Charlick-Paley. Assessing Russia’s Decline: Trends and Implications for the United States and the U.S. Air Force. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2002. Organski, A.F.K. World Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1968. Pape, Robert A. Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. New York: Random House, 2005. Pastor, Robert A. A Century’s Journey: How the Great Powers Shape the World. New York: Basic Books, 1999. Patten, Chris. Cousins and Strangers: America, Britain, and Europe in a New Century.

East Meets West: Human Rights and Democracy in East Asia. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2000. Bergsten, C. Fred, Bates Gill, Nicholas Lardy, and Derek Mitchell. China: The Balance Sheet—What the World Needs to Know Now About the Emerging Superpower. New York: Public Affairs, 2006. Bernard, Cheryl. Civil, Democratic Islam: Partners, Resources, and Strategies. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2003. Birdsall, Nancy, and Augusto de la Torre. Washington Contentious: Economic Policies for Social Equity in Latin America. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Inter-American Dialogue, 2001. Blank, Stephen. After Two Wars: Reflections on the American Strategic Revolution in Central Asia. Carlisle, Penn.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2005.

.: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, World Bank, 2004. de Soto, Hernando. The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else. New York: Basic Books, 2003. Diamond, Jared. Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York: Penguin, 2004. Dobbins, James. The UN’s Role in Nation-Building: From the Congo to Iraq. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2005. Dominguez, Jorge I., and Byung Cook Kim, eds. Between Compliance and Conflict: Between East Asia, Latin America, and the “New” Pax Americana. New York: Routlege, 2005. Doyle, Michael. Empires. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1986. Drakuli, Slavenka. Café Europa: Life After Communism. London: Penguin, 1996. Dresch, Paul, and James Piscatori, eds. Monarchies and Nations: Globalization and Identity in the Arab States of the Gulf.


From Airline Reservations to Sonic the Hedgehog: A History of the Software Industry by Martin Campbell-Kelly

Apple II, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, business process, card file, computer age, computer vision, continuous integration, deskilling, Donald Knuth, Grace Hopper, information asymmetry, inventory management, John Markoff, John von Neumann, linear programming, longitudinal study, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, Network effects, popular electronics, RAND corporation, Robert X Cringely, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, software patent, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

In the absence of a private-sector contractor willing to take on the programming challenge, the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit government-owned research organization, was given the task. RAND (a contraction of “research and development”) had been incorporated in Santa Monica in 1948 as a “think tank” to provide the Air Force with research studies in the “techniques of air warfare,” a spectrum of activities that ranged from secure communications to psychological studies of man-machine systems. RAND had already been involved with SAGE, training Air Force personnel for the Cape Cod system, and that activity continued alongside programming throughout RAND’s 8 years of involvement with the SAGE project. In December 1955, the RAND Corporation created an autonomous Systems Development Division to undertake the programming work.

The software firms’ competencies and their knowledge of their specialized markets enabled the more successful firms to maintain dominant positions in their own sector but made it difficult for them to cross over into either of the other sectors. Thus, the very strengths that The Software Industry 5 enabled a firm to succeed in one market segment became institutional rigidities in another. This is the main reason why few firms have successfully escaped the confines of their particular sector.12 Software Contractors The defining event for the software contracting industry came in 1956, when the US-government-owned RAND Corporation created the Systems Development Corporation (SDC) to develop the computer programs for the huge SAGE air defense project. This was the first of several multi-billion-dollar defense projects in the 1950s and the 1960s, known as the L-Systems, that provided an important market for early software contractors. At the same time, computer manufacturers and private corporations were also creating a demand for software, albeit on a smaller scale.

A set of binary-to-decimal and decimalto-binary conversion programs were needed at every installation, and most people wrote their own.”9 According to a joke of the day, “there were 17 customers with 701s and 18 different assembly programs.”10 This duplication of effort, unavoidable during the early learning period, clearly was untenable in the long run. Some form of cooperative association, it was felt, might alleviate the problem. The idea of a cooperative association was first proposed by R. Blair Smith, a 701 sales manager in IBM’s Santa Monica sales office.11 Smith had sold 701s to the RAND Corporation and to the Douglas Aircraft Company, and their early experiences had left him “afraid that the cost of programming would rise to the point where users would have difficulty in justifying the total cost of computing.”12 Before joining IBM, Smith had been an accounting machine manager and a founder of the Los Angeles chapter of the National Machine Accountants Association, which seemed to him an appropriate model for a computer user group.


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The Computer Boys Take Over: Computers, Programmers, and the Politics of Technical Expertise by Nathan L. Ensmenger

barriers to entry, business process, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, deskilling, Donald Knuth, Firefox, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Grace Hopper, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, job satisfaction, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, loose coupling, new economy, Norbert Wiener, pattern recognition, performance metric, Philip Mirowski, post-industrial society, Productivity paradox, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Shoshana Zuboff, sorting algorithm, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the market place, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thorstein Veblen, Turing machine, Von Neumann architecture, Y2K

SDC was the RAND Corporation spin-off responsible for developing the software for the U.S. Air Force’s Semi-Automated Ground Environment (SAGE) air-defense system. SAGE was perhaps the most ambitious and expensive of early cold war technological boondoggles. Comprised of a series of computerized tracking and communications centers, SAGE cost approximately $8 billion to develop and operate, and required the services of over two hundred thousand private contractors and military operators. A major component of the SAGE project was the real-time computers required to coordinate its vast, geographically dispersed network of observation and response centers. IBM was hired to develop the computers themselves but considered programming them to be too difficult. In 1955 the RAND Corporation took over software development.

In 1954, leaders in industry, government, and education gathered at Wayne State University for the Conference on Training Personnel for the Computing Machine Field. The goal was to discuss what Elbert Little, of the Wayne State Computational Laboratory, suggested was a “universal feeling” among industry leaders that there was “a definite shortage” of technically trained people in the computer field.12 This shortage, variously described by an all-star cast of scientists and executives from General Motors, IBM, the RAND Corporation, Bell Telephone, Harvard University, MIT, the Census Bureau, and the Office of Naval Research, as “acute,” “unprecedented,” “multiplying dramatically,” and “astounding compared to the [available] facilities,” represented a grave threat to the future of electronic computing. Already it was serious enough to demand a “cooperative effort” on the part of industry, government, and educational institutions to resolve.13 The proceedings of the Conference on Training Personnel for the Computing Machine Field provide the best data available on the state of the labor market in the electronic computer industry during its first decade.

Beginning with John von Neumann’s work on numerical meteorology in the late 1940s, computational models were increasingly being used to provide solutions—approximate solutions in many cases, but solutions nonetheless—to scientific problems that had previously been thought intractable.5 Over the course of the 1950s, in fields as diverse as economics, linguistics, physics, biology, ecology, psychology, and cognitive science, techniques and concepts drawn from computing promised dramatic new insights and capabilities.6 As was the case with Dijkstra, many of the most enthusiastic advocates of computer science had come from fields that had been transformed by the electronic computer. Computing was “as broad as our culture, as deep as interplanetary space,” declared Herbert Grosch, a former astronomer (and future president of the ACM).7 “Never before in the history of mankind” had there been a phenomenon of equal importance to “the pervasion of computers and computing into every other science field and discipline,” argued Paul Armer, the head of computing at the RAND Corporation (and another future ACM president). “We’ve always thought of mathematics as the queen of the sciences pervading every other field, but computing is going to go much farther than that.”8 For many of these pioneering computer scientists, not only was theirs a “real” scientific discipline, it was perhaps the scientific discipline. Even for those computer specialists whose professional aspirations were more commercial than academic, there were powerful incentives to encourage the establishment of an independent discipline of theoretical computer science.


pages: 561 words: 120,899

The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Bayesian statistics, bioinformatics, British Empire, Claude Shannon: information theory, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, double helix, Edmond Halley, Fellow of the Royal Society, full text search, Henri Poincaré, Isaac Newton, Johannes Kepler, John Markoff, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, linear programming, longitudinal study, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nate Silver, p-value, Pierre-Simon Laplace, placebo effect, prediction markets, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Robert Mercer, Ronald Reagan, speech recognition, statistical model, stochastic process, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, traveling salesman, Turing machine, Turing test, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War

Air Force Project Rand. RAND Corp. Jardini, David R. (1996) Out of the Blue Yonder: The RAND Corporation’s Diversification into Social Welfare Research, 1946–1968. Dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University. Kaplan, Fred. (1983) The Wizards of Armageddon. Simon and Schuster. Madansky, Albert. (1964) Externally Bayesian Groups. RAND Corp. ———. (1990) Bayesian analysis with incompletely specified prior distributions. In Bayesian and Likelihood Methods in Statistics and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of George A. Barnard, ed. S. Geisser. North Holland. 423–36. Mangravite, Andrew. (spring 2006) Cracking Bert’s shell and loving the bomb. Chemical Heritage (24:1) 22. Smith, Bruce LR. (1966) The RAND Corporation: Case Study of a Nonprofit Advisory Corporation. Harvard University Press. U.S.

Yet at the same time, it solved practical questions that were unanswerable by any other means: the defenders of Captain Dreyfus used it to demonstrate his innocence; insurance actuaries used it to set rates; Alan Turing used it to decode the German Enigma cipher and arguably save the Allies from losing the Second World War; the U.S. Navy used it to search for a missing H-bomb and to locate Soviet subs; RAND Corporation used it to assess the likelihood of a nuclear accident; and Harvard and Chicago researchers used it to verify the authorship of the Federalist Papers. In discovering its value for science, many supporters underwent a near-religious conversion yet had to conceal their use of Bayes’ rule and pretend they employed something else. It was not until the twenty-first century that the method lost its stigma and was widely and enthusiastically embraced.

A friend told him, “Jerry, I’m so glad to see you.” Smiling, Cornfield replied, “That’s nothing compared to how happy I am to be able to see you.”13 As he was dying he said to his two daughters, “You spend your whole life practicing your humor for the times when you really need it.”14 9. there’s always a first time Bayes’ military successes were still Cold War secrets when Jimmie Savage visited the glamorous new RAND Corporation in the summer of 1957 and encouraged two young men to calculate a life-and-death problem: the probability that a thermonuclear bomb might explode by mistake. RAND was the quintessential Cold War think tank. Gen. Curtis E. LeMay, the commander of the Strategic Air Command (SAC), had helped start it in Santa Monica, California, 10 years earlier as “a gimmick” to cajole top scientists into applying operations research to long-range air warfare.1 But RAND, an acronym for Research ANd Development, considered itself a “university without students” and its 1,000-odd employees “defense intellectuals.”


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The Generals: American Military Command From World War II to Today by Thomas E. Ricks

affirmative action, airport security, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, Charles Lindbergh, Columbine, continuation of politics by other means, cuban missile crisis, hiring and firing, MITM: man-in-the-middle, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Yom Kippur War

“didn’t provide anything”: Franks, teleconference with journalists, August 2, 2004, 18. the variety of ways he had devised: Franks, American Soldier, 410. “basic grand strategy”: Franks, American Soldier, 340–41. “The October 2002 Centcom war plan”: “Final Report of the Independent Panel to Review DoD Detention Operations,” August 24, 2004, 11. “post conflict stabilization”: RAND Corporation, “Iraq: Translating Lessons into Future DoD Policies,” attachment to letter from James Thompson, president and chief executive officer, RAND Corporation, to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, February 7, 2005, 6. “There’s never been a combat operation”: Franks, American Soldier, 524. “I just think it’s interesting”: Franks teleconference, August 2, 2004, 16. “The guys who did well”: Telephone interview with American civilian official in Kabul who requested anonymity, December 2007.

This omission on his part became disastrous, because no one above him in the Bush Administration was focusing on the problem, either. In 2004, an official Pentagon review led by two former defense secretaries, James Schlesinger and Harold Brown, unambiguously concluded, “The October 2002 Centcom war plan presupposed that relatively benign stability and security operations would precede a handover to Iraq’s authorities.” The following year, the head of the RAND Corporation, hardly a hostile observer, would send a memorandum to Defense Secretary Rumsfeld stating that after extensive review of internal documents, his researchers had found that “post conflict stabilization and reconstruction were addressed only very generally, largely because of the prevailing view that the task would not be difficult.” At times, Franks’s account of his wars was just stunning.

MacFarland’s point is one not often made, but worth pausing over, because its implications are far-reaching. Imagine a U.S. military at the other extreme—tactically mediocre and manned with draftees. In such a circumstance, it is hard to imagine the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan being allowed to meander for years without serious strategic direction. A few reliefs might have broken the strategic logjam, but the vocabulary of accountability had been lost. In 2005, a RAND Corporation study of Army generalship referred not to “firings” or “relief for cause” but, vaguely, to “performance departures”—which could mean leaving voluntarily or not. Similarly, a fine essay by Col. George Reed on “toxic leadership” in the military analyzed the problem bravely but tiptoed around the obvious solution, saying only, rather tentatively, “If the behavior does not change, there are many administrative remedies available.”


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Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict by Eli Berman, Joseph H. Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro, Vestal Mcintyre

basic income, call centre, centre right, clean water, crowdsourcing, demand response, drone strike, experimental economics, failed state, George Akerlof, Google Earth, HESCO bastion, income inequality, income per capita, information asymmetry, Internet of things, iterative process, land reform, mandatory minimum, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, natural language processing, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, statistical model, the scientific method, trade route, unemployed young men, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey

Shatz, “Insurgent Compensation: Evidence from Iraq,” American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 103, no. 3 (2013): 518–22; Patrick Johnston, Jacob N. Shapiro, Howard J. Shatz, Benjamin Bahney, Danielle F. Jung, Patrick K. Ryan, and Jonathan Wallace, Foundations of the Islamic State: Management, Money, and Terror in Iraq (Arlington, VA: RAND Corporation, 2016). 35. Craig Davis, “Reinserting Labor into the Iraqi Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs,” Monthly Labor Review 128, no. 6 (2005): 53–61. 36. Benjamin W. Bahney, Howard J. Shatz, Carroll Ganier, Renny McPherson, and Barbara Sude, An Economic Analysis of the Financial Records of al-Qa’ida in Iraq (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2010). 37. Johnston et al., Foundations of the Islamic State. 38. Ibid., 93. 39. Ibid., 85. 40. Philip Verwimp, “An Economic Profile of Peasant Perpetrators of Genocide: Micro-level Evidence from Rwanda,” Journal of Development Economics 77, no. 2 (2005): 297–323; Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M.

EVIDENCE FROM THE PHILIPPINES Proposition 2 (modest, secure aid programs reduce violence) seems to be borne out for the conflict it was designed to explain, the insurgency in Iraq. Does our model work in other asymmetric conflicts? For evidence let’s return to the Philippines, and a study by Joe and two of his coauthors, Ben Crost (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) and ESOC alumnus Patrick Johnston (RAND Corporation), on the effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) using the remarkable data on individual conflict incidents introduced in chapter 2 and village-level measures of insurgent influence.64 CCT programs distribute cash payments directly to poor households that meet a number of prerequisites (hence “conditional”), such as vaccinating their children or keeping them in school. Over the past decade CCTs have become a staple of development aid, with many studies showing positive effects on the well-being of the poor.

Army Civil Affairs community, was a member of the CAAT and provided significant support to the effort. 15. Though, as we’ll discuss in the conclusion, it did not remain so and was once again the scene of intense fighting by mid-2015. 16. The broad need to exercise caution when using administrative data from conflict zones is amply demonstrated by the many examples in Ben Connable’s excellent Embracing the Fog of War: Assessment and Metrics in Counterinsurgency (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2012). 17. Pakistan data from the BFRS Dataset of Political Violence in Pakistan. For details, see Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Christine Fair, Jenna Jordan, and Rasul Bakhsh Rais, “Measuring Political Violence in Pakistan: Insights from the BFRS Dataset,” Conflict Management and Peace Science 32, no. 5 (2015): 536–58. Philippines data from the ESOC Philippines Database, which compiles unclassified details of over 45,000 individual internal security incidents reported by the Armed Forces of the Philippines from 1977 to 2008. 18.


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Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion ofSafety by Eric Schlosser

Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Haight Ashbury, impulse control, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, life extension, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Stanislav Petrov, Stewart Brand, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche

Kissinger, Subject, Minutes of the Verification Panel Meeting Held August 9, 1973,” August 15, 1973 (TOP SECRET SENSITIVECODE WORD/declassified), NSA, p. 8. It was called QUICK COUNT: For information about the computer model, see N. D. Cohen, “The Quick Count System: A User’s Manual,” RAND Corporation, RM-4006-PR, April 1964. I learned about Quick Count from another report, one that was “designed to be of use to those who have only a rudimentary knowledge of targeting and the effects of nuclear weapons but who need a quick means of computing civil damage to Western Europe.” See “Aggregate Nuclear Damage Assessment Techniques Applied to Western Europe,” H. Avrech and D. C. McGarvey, RAND Corporation, Memorandum RM-4466-ISA, Prepared for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense/International Security Affairs, June 1965 (FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY/declassified). Between pages 19 and 23, you will find a guide to potential blast mortalities in the twenty-four largest cities in Western Europe, derived using Quick Count.

“Analytical Support for the Joint Chiefs of Staff: The WSEG Experience, 1948–1976,” John Ponturo, Institute for Defense Analyses, International and Social Studies Division, IDA Study S-507, July 1979. “Assessing the Capabilities of Strategic Nuclear Forces: The Limits of Current Methods,” Bruce W. Bennett, N-1441-NA, RAND Corporation, June 1980. “Assessment Report: Titan II LGM 25 C, Weapon Condition and Safety,” Prepared for the Senate Armed Services Committee and House Armed Services Committee, May 1980. “Attack Warning: Better Management Required to Resolve NORAD Integration Deficiencies,” Report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Defense, Committee on Appropriations, House of Representatives, United States General Accounting Office, July 1989. “The Ballistic Missile Decisions,” Robert L. Perry, RAND Corporation, October 1967. “Ballistic Missile Staff Course Study Guide,” 4315th Combat Crew Training Squadron, Strategic Air Command, Vandenberg Air Force Base, July 1, 1980.

If P1 = the population of a city before destruction, P2 = the population of a city after destruction, H1 = the number of housing units before destruction, H2 = the number of housing units after destruction, and F = the number of fatalities, then “the fully compensating increase in housing density,” could be expressed as a mathematical equation: Iklé was impressed by the amount of urban hardship and overcrowding that people could endure. But there were limits. The tipping point seemed to be reached when about 70 percent of a city’s homes were destroyed. That’s when people began to leave en masse and seek shelter in the countryside. Iklé’s dissertation attracted the attention of the RAND Corporation, and he was soon invited to join its social sciences division. Created in 1946 as a joint venture of the Army Air Forces and the Douglas Aircraft Company, Project RAND became one of America’s first think tanks, a university without students where scholars and Nobel laureates from a wide variety of disciplines could spend their days contemplating the future of airpower. The organization gained early support from General Curtis LeMay, whose training as a civil engineer had greatly influenced his military thinking.


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A Beautiful Mind by Sylvia Nasar

"Robert Solow", Al Roth, Albert Einstein, Andrew Wiles, Brownian motion, business cycle, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, experimental economics, fear of failure, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Conway, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, linear programming, lone genius, longitudinal study, market design, medical residency, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, Paul Erdős, Paul Samuelson, prisoner's dilemma, RAND corporation, Ronald Coase, second-price auction, Silicon Valley, Simon Singh, spectrum auction, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, upwardly mobile, zero-sum game

Letter from John von Neumann, 1.54. 39. Kuhn, interview, 11.18.96. 40. Shapley, interview, 10.94. 12: The War of Wits 1. John McDonald, “The War of Wits,” Fortune (March 1951). 2. William Poundstone, Prisoner’s Dilemma, op. cit.; Fred Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon, op. cit.; The RAND Corporation: The First Fifteen Years (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, November 1963) and 40th Year Anniversary (Santa Monica: RAND, 1963); John D. Williams, An Address, 6.21.50; Bruce L. R. Smith, The RAND Corporation (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1966); Bruno W. Augenstein, A Brief History of RANDs Mathematics Department and Some of Its Accomplishments (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, March 1993); Alexander M. Mood, “Miscellaneous Reminiscences,” Statistical Science, vol. 5, no. 1 (1990), pp. 40–41. 3.

The descriptions of Arrow’s contributions are taken from Mark Blaug, Great Economists Since Keynes (Totowa, N.J.: Barnes & Noble, 1985), pp. 6–9. 18. Kenneth Arrow, professor of economics, Stanford University, interview, 6.26.95. 19. McDonald, interview. 20. Richard Best, former manager of security, RAND Corporation, interview, 5.22.96. 21. Interviews with Alexander M. Mood, professor of mathematics, Universih of California at Irvine, former deputy director, mathematics department, RAND Corporation, 5.23.96, and Mario L. Juncosa, mathematician, RAND, 5.21.96 and 5.24.96. 22. Kaplan, op. cit., p. 51. 23. Bernice Brown, retired statistician, RAND, interview, 5.22.96. 24. Augenstein, interview. 25. Arrow, interview. 26. Chronicle of the Twentieth Century, op. cit., p. 667. 27. David Halberstam, The Fifties, op. cit. 28.

The paper, more substantial than most doctoral dissertations, was published in the Annals in 1950. Milnor also dazzled the department — and Nash — by winning the Putnam competition in his second semester at Princeton (in fact, he went on to win it two more times and was offered a Harvard scholarship).51 Nash was choosy about whom he would talk mathematics with. Melvin Peisakoff, another student who would later overlap with Nash at the RAND Corporation, recalled: “You couldn’t engage him in a long conversation. He’d just walk off in the middle. Or he wouldn’t respond at all. I don’t remember Nash having a conversation that came to a nice soft landing. I also don’t remember him ever having a conversation about mathematics. Even the full professors would discuss problems they were working on with other people.”52 On one occasion in the common room, however, Nash was sketching an idea when another graduate student got very interested in what he was saying and started to elaborate on the idea.53 Nash said, “Well, maybe I ought to write a Note for the Proceedings of the National Academy on this.”


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America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy by Francis Fukuyama

affirmative action, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, European colonialism, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Internet Archive, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, transaction costs, uranium enrichment, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus

Wolfowitz on two occasions, first at the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and later at the State Department; he was also responsible for recruiting me to come to the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies while he was dean there. I worked with his mentor Albert Wohlstetter at the latter's consulting firm, Pan Heuristics, and like him was an analyst for several years at the Rand Corporation. I was a student of Allan Bloom, himself a stu- Preface dent of Leo Strauss and the author of The Closing of the American Mind. I was a classmate of William Kristol in graduate school and wrote frequently for the two magazines founded by his father, Irving Kristol, The National Interest and The Public Interest, as well as for Commentary magazine. And yet, unlike many other neoconservatives, I was never persuaded of the rationale for the Iraq war.

ALBERT WOHLSTETTER Leo Strauss said virtually nothing about foreign policy, however much students or students of students may have sought to translate his philosophical ideas into policies. The same cannot be said for Albert Wohlstetter, on the other hand, who was the teacher of Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Zalmay Khalilzad, and other people in or close to the Bush administration. Wohlstetter was a mathematical logician who worked at the Rand Corporation in its glory days in the 1950s and later taught The Neoconservative Legacy at the University of Chicago. His career was marked by a longstanding concern with two central issues. The first was the problem of extended deterrence. Wohlstetter argued against the belief, promoted in early Cold War days by strategists like the French general Pierre Galois, that a minimum nuclear deterrent would be a cheap and effective form of national defense.

It is perhaps not an accident that MacArthur lived in East Asia almost continuously from the time he helped establish the Philippine Army in the 1930s until his recall by President Truman during the Korean War. 16. See Francis Fukuyama, "The March of Equality," Journal of Democracy 11, no. 1 (2000): 11-17. 17. Albert Wohlstetter, Henry S. Rowen, et al., Selection and Use of Strategic Air Bases (Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand Corporation, R-266, 1954). A shorter version was published as "The Delicate Balance of Terror" in Foreign Affairs 2 7, no. 2 (Jan. 1959). 18. Henry A. Kissinger,/4 World Restored: Europe After Napoleon (Gloucester, Mass.: Peter Smith, 1973); Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994). 19. This was true of Strauss's students as well; it is even harder to extract an economic ideology from his writings than a political one. 20.


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Where Wizards Stay Up Late: The Origins of the Internet by Katie Hafner, Matthew Lyon

air freight, Bill Duvall, computer age, conceptual framework, Donald Davies, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, fault tolerance, Hush-A-Phone, information retrieval, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, natural language processing, packet switching, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, Steve Crocker, Steven Levy

In the relatively mundane capacity of technician, he tested parts for radio tubes and germanium diodes on the first commercial computer—the UNIVAC. Baran soon married, and he and his wife moved to Los Angeles, where he took a job at Hughes Aircraft working on radar data processing systems. He took night classes at UCLA on computers and transistors, and in 1959 he received a master’s degree in engineering. Baran left Hughes in late 1959 to join the computer science department in the mathematics division at the RAND Corporation while continuing to take classes at UCLA. Baran was ambivalent, but his advisor at UCLA, Jerry Estrin, urged him to continue his studies toward a doctorate. Soon a heavy travel schedule was forcing him to miss classes. But it was finally divine intervention, he said, that sparked his decision to abandon the doctoral work. “I was driving one day to UCLA from RAND and couldn’t find a single parking spot in all of UCLA nor the entire adjacent town of Westwood,” Baran recalled.

Although DARPA couldn’t provide financial support, the agency sent Bob Kahn to the meeting as an advisor. NSF, which had raised the academic network issue five years earlier, sent Kent Curtis, the head of its computer research division. After the meeting, Landweber spent the summer working with Peter Denning from Purdue, Dave Farber from the University of Delaware, and Tony Hearn who had recently left the University of Utah for the RAND Corporation, to flesh out a detailed proposal for the new network. Their proposal called for a network open to computer science researchers in academia, government, and industry. The underlying medium would be a commercial service provider like TELENET. Because CSNET would be using slower links than those used by the ARPANET, and did not insist on redundant linkages, the system would be far less expensive.

Journal, Magazine, and Newspaper Articles Abramson, Norman. “Development of the Alohanet.” IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, January 1985. Anderson, Christopher. “The Accidental Superhighway.” The Economist, 1 July 1995. Baran, Paul. “On Distributed Communications Networks.” IEEE Transactions on Communications Systems, 1 March 1964. ———.“Reliable Digital Communications Systems Using Unreliable Network Repeater Nodes.” RAND Corporation Mathematics Division Report No. P-1995, 27 May 1960. Boggs, David R., John F. Shoch, Edward A. Taft, and Robert M. Metcalfe. “PUP: An Internetwork Architecture.” IEEE Transactions on Communications, April 1980. “Bolt Beranek Accused by Government of Contract Overcharges.” Dow Jones News Service–Wall Street Journal combined stories, 27 October 1980. “Bolt Beranek and Newman: Two Aides Plead Guilty to U.S.


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The Curse of Cash by Kenneth S Rogoff

Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, business cycle, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, cashless society, central bank independence, cryptocurrency, debt deflation, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, Edward Snowden, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, financial exclusion, financial intermediation, financial repression, forward guidance, frictionless, full employment, George Akerlof, German hyperinflation, illegal immigration, inflation targeting, informal economy, interest rate swap, Isaac Newton, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Johannes Kepler, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, large denomination, liquidity trap, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, moveable type in China, New Economic Geography, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, payday loans, price stability, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, RFID, savings glut, secular stagnation, seigniorage, The Great Moderation, the payments system, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, transaction costs, unbanked and underbanked, unconventional monetary instruments, underbanked, unorthodox policies, Y2K, yield curve

Speech presented to the Swedish House of Finance, January 23. Available at http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Tal/Jochnick/2015/tal_af_jochnick_150123_eng.pdf. Johnson, Boris. 2013. 2020 Vision: The Greatest City on Earth: Ambitions for London (June). City Hall, London: London Greater Authority. Johnson, Patrick B. 2014. “Countering ISIL’s Financing.” The RAND Corporation Testimony Series. Testimony presented before the House Financial Services Committee on November 13. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Jost, Patrick M., and Harjit Singh Sandbu. 2000. “Hawala: The Hawala Alternative Remittance System and Its Role in Money Laundering.” Prepared by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network of the United States Department of Treasury in cooperation with INTERPOL/FOPAC. Judson, Ruth. 2012. “Crisis and Calm: Demand for U.S. Currency at Home and Abroad from the Fall of the Berlin Wall to 2011.”

The basic takeaway from these studies is that the cash consumers admit to holding can account for perhaps 5–10% of the total currency supply.5 We begin with the United States and then look at Europe and Canada. The United States The two important sources of data on US consumer cash holdings are the “Survey of Consumer Payment Choice” and the “Diary of Consumer Payment Choice.”6 The first is an annual survey conducted by the Federal Reserve that makes use of the RAND Corporation’s “American Life Panel” survey respondents. The second is a consumer diary project (where consumers are asked to keep diaries, something akin to the Nielsen diaries for rating TV shows). It gives a more detailed snapshot of consumer holdings of cash, but so far only for the month of October 2012.7 Nevertheless, the diary snapshot is especially valuable, because, in addition to answering questions on total currency held on person (e.g., wallet, pocket, and purse) and on property (e.g., home and car), respondents were also asked the denominations of the notes they held.

Although there do not seem to be any aggregate statistics on cash seizures for the United States, I invite the reader to try online searching on the words “bust,” “cash,” “drugs,” or the like, to get an idea of the extent of the activity. Admittedly, the oft-quoted fact that some 90% of all US currency has traces of cocaine overstates the connection between drugs and cash. The contamination occurs in modern high-speed counting machines, including ATMs, where one bill can pollute a batch.32 The RAND Corporation has estimated the combined size of the market for four major illegal drugs in the United States to be more than $100 billion in 2010, with cocaine (including crack) $28 billion, heroin $27 billion, marijuana $41 billion, and methamphetamine (meth) $13 billion. This is only the footprint in the United States.33 The last attempt to do a comprehensive measure of the global drug market, by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime for the year 2003, came up with an estimate of $322 billion.


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Speculative Everything: Design, Fiction, and Social Dreaming by Anthony Dunne, Fiona Raby

3D printing, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, Buckminster Fuller, Cass Sunstein, computer age, corporate governance, David Attenborough, en.wikipedia.org, Fall of the Berlin Wall, game design, global village, Google X / Alphabet X, haute couture, life extension, Mark Zuckerberg, mouse model, New Urbanism, Peter Eisenman, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, social software, technoutopianism, Wall-E

It had room for deck games, an orchestra, a gymnasium, a solarium, airplane hangars, and could sleep 606 passengers. Bel Geddes intended it to be built and flown between Chicago and London, but sadly, was unable to raise the necessary funding. Norman Bel Geddes, Airliner No. 4, 1929. Image courtesy of the Edith Lutyens and Norman Bel Geddes Foundation. In the shadowlands of big thinking is the RAND Corporation and Herman Kahn. The RAND Corporation developed many of the techniques used today for scenario building." Kahn, who coined the phrase "thinking the unthinkable," more than many, really did think the unthinkable. At one point he reconceptualized the practicalities of nuclear war by thinking through the aftermath in a rational way: what the costs would be and how America could rebuild itself after a nuclear war.

Rem Koolhaas, AMO, Roadmap 2050 Eneropa, 2010. 0 OMA. THE UNITED MICRO-KINGDOMS: A THOUGHT EXPERIMENT20 Inspired by all this big thinking we decided to try a design experiment to take the literary imagination behind the Sternberg Solution series, or The World, Who Wants It, and combine it with more concrete design speculations. After finding the wonderfully titled The Beginner's Guide to NationBuilding published by the RAND Corporation in 2007,21 we began to wonder how nations were built and if states could be designed. Architects have long developed master plans for cities and regions. Could we talk about big ideas through small things? The Design Museum in London invited us to try. It is common in the design of technology products and services to start with personas, then develop scenarios, all within existing reality.

Andrea Hyde, Metahaven's Facestate Social Media and the State: An Interview with Metahaven. Available at http://www.walkerart.org/ magazine/2011/metahavens-facestate. Accessed December 23, 2012. 20. The project was commissioned by the Design Museum in London and exhibited there as "The United Micro Kingdoms: A Design Fiction" between May 1 and August 25, 2012. 21. James Dobbins et al., The Beginner's Guide to Nation - Building (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2007). Available at http://www.rand.org/pubs/ monographs/MG557.html. Accessed December 24, 2012. 22. Torie Bosch, "Sci-Fi Writer Bruce Sterling Explains the Intriguing New Concept of Design Fiction," Slate blog, March 2, 2012. Available at http:// www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/03/02/bruce_sterling_on_design_ fictions_.html. Accessed December 24, 2012. 23. This title is from a document Cynthia Weber, a professor of international relations, produced for a student project we ran related to this theme.


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A Curious Mind: The Secret to a Bigger Life by Brian Grazer, Charles Fishman

4chan, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Apple II, Asperger Syndrome, Bonfire of the Vanities, en.wikipedia.org, game design, Google Chrome, Howard Zinn, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, Norman Mailer, orbital mechanics / astrodynamics, out of africa, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, the scientific method, Tim Cook: Apple

Cox: chief lobbyist for the National Rifle Association Steve Coz: former editor of National Enquirer Donald Cram: professor of chemistry at UCLA, Nobel laureate in chemistry Jim Cramer: investor, author, TV personality, host of CNBC’s Mad Money Clyde Cronkhite: criminal justice expert, former police chief of Santa Ana, former deputy police chief of Los Angeles Mark Cuban: investor, owner of the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks Heidi Siegmund Cuda: journalist, former music critic for the Los Angeles Times Thomas Cummings: leading expert in designing high-performing organizations and strategic change at USC Marshall School of Business Fred Cuny: disaster relief specialist Mario Cuomo: governor of New York, 1983–1994 Alan Dershowitz: attorney, constitutional scholar, professor emeritus at Harvard Law School Donny Deutsch: advertising executive, TV personality Jared Diamond: evolutionary biologist, author, professor at UCLA, winner of the Pulitzer Prize Alfred “Fred” DiSipio: record promoter investigated during payola scandal DMX: musician, actor Thomas R. Donovan: former CEO of the Chicago Board of Trade Jack Dorsey: cofounder of Twitter, founder and CEO of Square Inc. Steve Drezner: specialist in systems analysis and military projects for RAND Corporation Ann Druyan: author and producer specializing in cosmology and popular science Marian Wright Edelman: founder and president of the Children’s Defense Fund Betty Edwards: author of Drawing on the Right Side of the Brain Peter Eisenhardt: astronomer, physicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory Paul Ekman: psychologist, pioneer in the study of emotions and their relation to facial expressions Anita Elberse: professor of business administration at Harvard Business School Eminem: musician, music producer, actor Selwyn Enzer: futurist, former director of USC Center for Futures Research Susan Estrich: lawyer, author, first female campaign manager of a major presidential campaign (for Michael Dukakis) Harold Evans: journalist, author, former editor of the Sunday Times, founded Condé Nast Traveler Ron W.

Beyoncé Knowles: musician, actress Christof Koch: neuroscientist and professor at California Institute of Technology, specializing in human consciousness Clea Koff: forensic anthropologist who worked with United Nations to reveal genocide in Rwanda Stephen Kolodny: attorney; practices family law Rem Koolhaas: architect, architectural theorist, professor at Harvard Graduate School of Design Jeff Koons: artist Jesse Kornbluth: journalist, editor of a cultural concierge service Richard Koshalek: former director of the Museum of Contemporary Art, Los Angeles Mark Kostabi: artist, composer Anna Kournikova: former professional tennis player Lawrence Krauss: theoretical physicist, cosmologist, professor at Arizona State University Steve Kroft: journalist, correspondent for CBS’s 60 Minutes William LaFleur: author, professor at the University of Pennsylvania, specializing in Japanese culture Steven Lamy: professor of international relations at the University of Southern California Lawrence Lawler: former special agent in charge of the Los Angeles field office of the FBI Nigella Lawson: journalist, author, food writer, TV host Sugar Ray Leonard: professional boxer who won world titles in five weight divisions Maria Lepowsky: anthropologist, professor at University of Wisconsin–Madison, lived with the indigenous people of a Papua New Guinea island Lawrence Lessig: activist for Internet freedom and Net neutrality, professor at Harvard Law School Cliff Lett: professional race car driver, designer of radio-controlled cars Robert A. Levine: former economist at RAND Corporation Ariel Levy: journalist, staff writer at New York magazine Dany Levy: founder of DailyCandy email newsletter Roy Lichtenstein: Pop artist John Liebeskind: former professor at UCLA, leading researcher in the study of pain and its relation to health Alan Lipkin: former special agent for the criminal investigation division of the IRS Margaret Livingstone: neurobiologist specializing in vision, professor at Harvard Medical School Tone Loc: musician, actor Elizabeth Loftus: cognitive psychologist and expert on human memory, professor at the University of California, Irvine Lisa Love: West Coast director for Vogue and Teen Vogue Jim Lovell: Apollo-era astronaut, commander of the crippled Apollo 13 mission Thomas Lovejoy: ecologist, professor at George Mason University, former assistant secretary for environmental and external affairs at the Smithsonian Institution, expert in tropical deforestation Malcolm Lucas: chief justice of the California Supreme Court, 1987–1996 Oliver Luckett: founder and CEO of social media content company the Audience Frank Luntz: political consultant and pollster Peter Maass: author and journalist who covers international affairs, war, and conflict Norman Mailer: author, playwright, filmmaker, journalist, cofounder of the Village Voice Sir John Major: prime minister of the United Kingdom, 1990–1997 Michael Malin: astronomer, designer, developer of cameras used to explore Mars P.

Army general Ned Preble: former executive, Synectics creative problem-solving methodology Ilya Prigogine: chemist, professor at the University of Texas at Austin, Nobel laureate in chemistry, author of The End of Certainty: Time, Chaos, and the New Laws of Nature Prince: musician, music producer, actor Wolfgang Puck: chef, restaurateur, entrepreneur Pussy Riot: Maria Alyokhina and Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, the two members of the Russian feminist punk rock group who served time in prison Steven Quartz: philosopher, professor at California Institute of Technology, specializing in the brain’s value systems and how they interact with culture James Quinlivan: analyst at the RAND Corporation, specializing in introducing change and technology into large organizations William C. Rader: psychiatrist, administers stem cell injections for a variety of illnesses Jason Randal: magician, mentalist Ronald Reagan: president of the United States, 1981–1989 Sumner Redstone: media magnate, businessman, chairman of CBS, chairman of Viacom Judith Regan: editor, book publisher Eddie Rehfeldt: executive creative director for the communications firm Waggener Edstrom David Remnick: journalist, author, editor of the New Yorker, winner of the Pulitzer Prize David Rhodes: president of CBS News, former vice president of news for Fox News Matthieu Ricard: Buddhist monk, photographer, author of Happiness: A Guide to Developing Life’s Most Important Skill Condoleezza Rice: U.S. secretary of state, 2005–2009, former U.S. national security advisor, former provost at Stanford University, professor of political economy at the Stanford Graduate School of Business Frank Rich: journalist, author, former columnist for the New York Times, editor at large for New York magazine Michael Rinder: activist and former senior executive for the Church of Scientology International Richard Riordan: mayor of Los Angeles, 1993–2001, businessman Tony Robbins: life coach, author, motivational speaker Robert Wilson and Richard Hutton: criminal defense attorneys Brian L.


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Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy by Cathy O'Neil

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Bernie Madoff, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, call centre, carried interest, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crowdsourcing, Emanuel Derman, housing crisis, I will remember that I didn’t make the world, and it doesn’t satisfy my equations, illegal immigration, Internet of things, late fees, mass incarceration, medical bankruptcy, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, new economy, obamacare, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, price discrimination, quantitative hedge fund, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, Rubik’s Cube, Sharpe ratio, statistical model, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, working poor

Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet: Lily Dayton, “BMI May Not Be the Last Word on Health Risks, Some Experts Say,” Los Angeles Times, December 19, 2014, www.​latimes.​com/​health/​la-​he-​bmi-​20141220-​story.​html. Keith Devlin, the mathematician: Keith Devlin, “Top 10 Reasons Why The BMI Is Bogus,” NPR, July 4, 2009, www.​npr.​org/​templates/​story/​story.​php?​storyId=​106268439. the $6 billion wellness industry: Rand Corporation, “Do Workplace Wellness Programs Save Employers Money?,” Rand Corporation Research Brief, 2013, www.​rand.​org/​content/​dam/​rand/​pubs/​research_​briefs/​RB9700/​RB9744/​RAND_​RB9744.​pdf. “Here are the facts”: Joshua Love, “4 Steps to Implement a Successful Employee Wellness Program,” Forbes, November 28, 2012, www.​forbes.​com/​sites/​theyec/​2012/​11/​28/​4-​steps-​to-​implement-​a-​successful-​employee-​wellness-​program/.

The idea, as we’ve seen so many times, springs from good intentions. In fact, it is encouraged by the government. The Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, invites companies to engage workers in wellness programs, and even to “incentivize” health. By law, employers can now offer rewards and assess penalties reaching as high as 50 percent of the cost of coverage. Now, according to a study by the Rand Corporation, more than half of all organizations employing fifty people or more have wellness programs up and running, and more are joining the trend every week. There’s plenty of justification for wellness programs. If they work—and, as we’ll see, that’s a big “if”—the biggest beneficiary is the worker and his or her family. Yet if wellness programs help workers avoid heart disease or diabetes, employers gain as well.

Corinthian Colleges amounted to $3.5 billion: Tamar Lewin, “Government to Forgive Student Loans at Corinthian Colleges,” New York Times, June 8, 2015, www.​nytimes.+com/+2015/+06/+09/+education/+us-+to-+forgive-+federal-+loans-+of-+corinthian-+college-+students.+html. investigators at CALDER/American Institutes: Rajeev Darolia, Cory Koedel, Paco Martorell, Katie Wilson, and Francisco Perez-Arce, “Do Employers Prefer Workers Who Attend For-Profit Colleges? Evidence from a Field Experiment,” RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2014, accessed January 9, 2016, www.​rand.+org/+pubs/+working_+papers/+WR1054.+html. The top 20 percent of the population: William Domhoff, “Wealth, Income, and Power,” Who Rules America?, first posted September 2005, updated February 2013, accessed January 9, 2016, http://​whorulesamerica.+net/+power/+wealth.+html. Gregory W. Cappelli: Josh Harkinson, “The Nation’s 10 Most Overpaid CEOs,” Mother Jones, July 12, 2012, www.​motherjones.


What We Say Goes: Conversations on U.S. Power in a Changing World by Noam Chomsky, David Barsamian

banking crisis, British Empire, Doomsday Clock, failed state, feminist movement, Howard Zinn, informal economy, liberation theology, mass immigration, microcredit, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Thomas L Friedman, union organizing, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus

There is a new study just done by a couple of major terrorism specialists, Peter Bergen and others, and their estimate is that what they call “the Iraq effect”—the effect of the Iraq war on terrorism—has been a “sevenfold increase in the yearly rate of fatal jihadist attacks,” focused particularly on regions and populations that have been involved in the invasion, “amounting to literally hundreds of additional terrorist attacks and thousands of civilian lives lost.”12 That’s quite an increase. It’s a long, careful, important study, using the Rand Corporation database.13 I haven’t seen anything about the report in the mainstream press. You can also see this short-term thinking right now in the case of Iran. I don’t know if the Bush administration is planning to invade, but in order to achieve a short-term gain in domestic political power and shifting attention away from their catastrophe in Iraq, war planners may trap themselves into invading, with consequences that are unimaginable.

In a demonstration of their military capacity, the Chinese recently shot down one of their own anti-satellite systems.19 Afterward, there was a big hubbub: China is starting the Cold War, they’re a major threat, and so on. All this is totally predictable. I wrote about the possibility of this happening years ago—not because I have any insight, I was just quoting the major strategic analysts. You can read about it in Hegemony or Survival.20 I quoted the Rand Corporation, leading military figures, and so on, all of whom pointed out the obvious, that other countries regard what we call “missile defense” as a first-strike weapon. A missile shield could never impede a first strike, but it could conceivably impede a retaliatory strike. So if you have a functioning missile defense system, and the adversary has no way around it, they’re going to understand it as a first-strike weapon.

Foreign Policy and Human Rights Violations in Latin America: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Aid Distributions,” Comparative Politics 13, no. 2 (January 1981), pp. 155, 157. 10 For discussion, see Chomsky, Hegemony or Survival, pp. 52–53. 11 Alfredo Molano, Dispossessed: Chronicles of the Desterrados of Colombia, trans. Daniel Bland (Chicago: Haymarket Books, 2005), see foreword by Aviva Chomsky. 12 See C. Peter Rydell and Susan S. Everingham, Controlling Cocaine: Supply Versus Demand Programs, Rand Corporation (2004), online at http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR331/index2.html. 13 Hugh O’Shaughnessy and Sue Branford, Chemical Warfare in Colombia: The Costs of Coca Fumigation (London: Latin America Bureau, 2005), p. 120, citing Martin Jelsma and Pien Metaal, “Cracks in the Vienna Consensus: The UN Drug Control Debate,” Drug War Monitor, Washington, D.C., Washington Office on Latin America, January 2004. 14 Ewen MacAskill and Suzanne Goldenberg, “Bush’s Last Stand,” Guardian (London), 11 January 2007; Michael Gordon, “Deadliest Bomb in Iraq Is Made in Iran, U.S.


pages: 637 words: 199,158

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics by John J. Mearsheimer

active measures, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, colonial rule, continuation of politics by other means, deindustrialization, discrete time, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, illegal immigration, long peace, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, oil shock, Pareto efficiency, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Yom Kippur War

., Nuclear Targeting, pp. 84–108; and Richard Pipes, “Why the Soviet Union Thinks It Could Fight and Win a Nuclear War,” Commentary 64, No. 1 (July 1977), pp. 21–34. 173. See Benjamin S. Lambeth, “Uncertainties for the Soviet War Planner,” International Security 7, No. 3 (Winter 1982–83), pp. 139–66. 174. Benjamin S. Lambeth, Selective Nuclear Options in American and Soviet Strategic Policy, R-2034-DDRE (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, December 1976); and Jack L. Snyder, The Soviet Strategic Culture: Implications for Limited Nuclear Options, R-2154-AF (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, September 1977). 175. Robert Jervis, for example, has written a book titled The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1984). 176. See note 159 in this chapter. 177. One author estimates that the ratio of conventional to nuclear spending in the U.S. defense budget was roughly 1.45:1 in 1961, 4:1 in 1971, and 6.7:1 in 1981.

Russia and the Outside World, CSIA Studies in International Security (Washington, DC: Brassey’s, 1994), pp. 77–106; and Sergey Rogov, Security Concerns of the New Russia, vol. 1, The Challenges of Defending Russia, Occasional Paper (Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analyses, July 1995). 90. See Zalmay Khalilzad et al., The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1999); and Michael D. Swaine and Ashley J. Tellis, Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2000). 91. For a generally optimistic assessment of the future of China’s economy, see World Bank, China 2020: Development Challenges in the New Century (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1997). For more pessimistic assessments, see the articles in “The FPRI Conference on China’s Economy,” Orbis 43, No. 2 (Spring 1999), pp. 173–294; and Nicholas R.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 56, No. 3 (May–June 2000), p. 49. The Yugoslav government claims that the number of civilians killed was 2,000. See Posen, “War for Kosovo,” p. 81. 66. Pape, Bombing to Win, p. 68. For a discussion of why punishment from the air usually fails, see ibid., pp. 21–27; Stephen T. Hosmer, Psychological Effects of U.S. Air Operations in Four Wars, 1941–1991: Lessons for U.S. Commanders, RAND Report MR-576-AF (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1996); and Irving L. Janis, Air War and Emotional Stress: Psychological Studies of Bombing and Civilian Defense (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1951). 67. There is also some evidence in the public domain that a decapitation strategy was employed against Yugoslavia in 1999. Specifically, it appears from some of the targets that NATO struck (TV stations, Milosevic’s house, important government buildings, party headquarters, high-level military headquarters, and the businesses of Milosevic’s close friends) that it aimed either to kill him or to precipitate a coup.


pages: 109 words: 33,946

Tribe: On Homecoming and Belonging by Sebastian Junger

banking crisis, Credit Default Swap, Ferguson, Missouri, financial independence, income inequality, Paul Samuelson, RAND corporation, Yom Kippur War

“Risk Factors for PTSD and Other Diagnoses in a General Sample of Vietnam Veterans.” American Journal of Psychiatry 147 (June 1990): 729–33. Hanwella, R., and V. de Silva. “Mental Health of Special Forces Personnel Deployed in Battle.” Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology 47 (2012): 1343–51. Helmus, Todd C., and Russell W. Glenn. Steeling the Mind: Combat Stress Reactions and Their Implications for Urban Warfare. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2005. Hirshon, J. M., et al. “Psychological and Readjustment Problems Associated with Emergency Evacuations of Peace Corps Volunteers.” Journal of Travel Medicine 4, no. 3 (September 1997): 128–31. Institute of Medicine of the National Academies. Treatment for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Military and Veteran Populations: Initial Assessment. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2012.

Journal of Anxiety Disorders 27 (2013): 520–26. Marlowe, David H. Cohesion, Anticipated Breakdown, and Endurance in Battle: Considerations for Severe and High Intensity Combat. Unpublished manuscript, Washington, DC: Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, 1979. ———. The Psychological and Psychosocial Consequences of Combat and Deployment with Special Emphasis on the Gulf War. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2001. Medical Surveillance Monthly Report 20, no. 3 (March 2013). https://www.afhsc.mil/documents/pubs/msmrs/2013/v20_n03.pdf. Morley, Christopher A., and Brandon A. Kohrt. “Impact of Peer Support on PTSD, Hope, and Functional Impairment.” Journal of Aggression, Maltreatment and Trauma 22 (2013): 714–34. National Center for Veterans Analysis and Statistics. “Trends in the Geographic Distribution of VA Expenditures (GDX): FY2000 to FY2009.” http://www.va.gov/vetdata/docs/QuickFacts/Expenditures_quickfacts.pdf.

Clinical Psychology Review 30 (2010): 635–41. Shah, Sabir. “US Wars in Afghanistan, Iraq to Cost $6 Trillion.” Global Research News, February 12, 2014. http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-wars-in-afghanistan-iraq-to-cost-6-trillion/5350789. Tanielian, Terri, and Lisa H. Jaycox, eds. Invisible Wounds of War: Psychological and Cognitive Injuries, Their Consequences, and Services to Assist Recovery. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2008. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG720.sum.pdf. Thompson, Mark. “They Don’t Seem to Get Better…” Time, February 23, 2012. http://nation.time.com/2012/02/23/they-dont-seem-to-get-better/. Toll, W. A., et al. “Promoting Mental Health and Psychosocial Well-Being in Children Affected by Political Violence.” In Handbook of Resilience in Children of War, edited by Chandi Fernando and Michel Ferrari.


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Protocol: how control exists after decentralization by Alexander R. Galloway

Ada Lovelace, airport security, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, Bretton Woods, computer age, Craig Reynolds: boids flock, discovery of DNA, Donald Davies, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Grace Hopper, Hacker Ethic, informal economy, John Conway, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, late capitalism, linear programming, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, Menlo Park, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, Norbert Wiener, old-boy network, packet switching, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, phenotype, post-industrial society, profit motive, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, semantic web, SETI@home, stem cell, Steve Crocker, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, telerobotics, the market place, theory of mind, urban planning, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Review, working poor

American anxiety over Soviet technological advancement was very real after the Sputnik launches. “The launching of the sputniks told us,” wrote John Dunning for The New York Times Introduction 4 ration decided to create a computer network that was independent of centralized command and control, and would thus be able to withstand a nuclear attack that targets such centralized hubs. In August 1964, he published an eleven-volume memorandum for the Rand Corporation outlining his research.6 Baran’s network was based on a technology called packet-switching7 that allows messages to break themselves apart into small fragments. Each fragment, or packet, is able to find its own way to its destination. Once there, the packets reassemble to create the original message. In 1969, the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) at the U.S. Department of Defense started the ARPAnet, the first network to use Baran’s packet-switching technology.

Eisenhower System of Interstate & Defense Highways, better known as the interstate highway system. The highway system was first approved by Congress immediately following World War II, but was not officially begun until June 29, 1956, when President Eisenhower signed it into law. (This is exactly the same period during which Internet pioneer Paul Baran began experimenting with distributed, packet-switching computer technologies at the Rand Corporation.11) The highway system is a distributed network because it lacks any centralized hubs and offers direct linkages from city to city through a variety of highway combinations. For example, someone traveling from Los Angeles to Denver may begin by traveling on Interstate 5 north toward San Francisco turning northwest on Interstate 80, or head out on Interstate 15 toward Las Vegas, or even Interstate 40 toward Albuquerque.

These include standards for Ethernet18 (the most common local area networking protocol in use today), Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and others. “The IEEE,” Paul Baran observed, “has been a major factor in the development of communications technology.”19 Indeed Baran’s own theories, which eventually would spawn the Internet, were published within the IEEE community even as they were published by his own employer, the Rand Corporation. Active within the United States are the National Institute for Standardization and Technology (NIST) and ANSI. The century-old NIST, formerly known as the National Bureau of Standards, is a federal agency that develops and promotes technological standards. Because it is a federal agency and not a professional society, it has no membership per se. It is also nonregulatory, meaning that it does not enforce laws or establish mandatory standards that must be adopted.


pages: 389 words: 108,344

Kill Chain: The Rise of the High-Tech Assassins by Andrew Cockburn

airport security, anti-communist, drone strike, Edward Snowden, friendly fire, Google Earth, license plate recognition, RAND corporation, risk/return, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, too big to fail, WikiLeaks

The Pentium III microprocessor: Information supplied by Dr. Herb Lin, National Research Council, March 1, 2013. This inherent problem was apparently lost on Cebrowski: Vice-Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski and John A. Garstka, “Net-Centric Warfare, Its Origin and Future,” Proceedings Magazine, U.S. Naval Institute, January 1998. Two Rand Corporation researchers: John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, eds., In Athena’s Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 1997). Their report, “Transforming Defense: National Security in the 21st Century”: Report of the National Defense Panel, “Power Projection,” December 1997. http://www.dod.gov/pubs/foi/administration_and_Management/other/902.pdf. Paul Van Riper, for example: Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper, Testimony before Procurement Subcommittee and Research and Development Subcommittee of the House National Security Committee, March 20, 1997.

The Soviets even coined a helpful catchphrase to describe this claimed ability to see everything, strike anything—the “military technical revolution”—and proclaimed their intention of producing their own versions. In no time, talk of this revolution was gathering momentum in U.S. military commentaries, largely thanks to assiduous promotion by an already legendary Pentagon official, Andrew Marshall. Trained as an economist, Marshall had spent his early career at the Rand Corporation, the famed Santa Monica–based think tank staffed with brilliant minds devising nuclear war strategies for the U.S. Air Force, which financed the undertaking. In retrospect it is clear that Rand’s core mission was to devise strategies justifying and whenever possible enhancing the air force budget. When, for example, the navy’s development of invulnerable ballistic-missile submarines threatened the air force’s strategic nuclear monopoly in the early 1960s, Rand quickly served up a rationale for a “counterforce” strategy.

This inherent problem was apparently lost on Cebrowski, who suggested that if every soldier and warplane was connected up like the Wal-Mart cash registers, an entire force could operate as a coordinated mechanism, identifying and destroying targets with maximum efficiency and discrimination. Jasons pondering how to block the Ho Chi Minh Trail back in the summer of 1966 would have caught on to the idea immediately. Unsurprisingly, the defense intelligentsia was quick to fall into line. Two Rand Corporation researchers, David Ronfeldt and John Arquilla, academic foot soldiers in the revolution in military affairs, popularized the notions of “cyberwar” and “netwar” as well as the catchy slogan “It takes a network to defeat a network.” Meanwhile, politicians were getting in on the act. In 1996 Senators Joseph Lieberman and Dan Coats sponsored a National Defense Panel as a forum to advance “the revolution in military affairs.”


pages: 518 words: 128,324

Destined for War: America, China, and Thucydides's Trap by Graham Allison

9 dash line, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, borderless world, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, facts on the ground, Flash crash, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, game design, George Santayana, Haber-Bosch Process, industrial robot, Internet of things, Kenneth Rogoff, liberal world order, long peace, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, one-China policy, Paul Samuelson, Peace of Westphalia, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, special economic zone, spice trade, the rule of 72, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade route, UNCLOS, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game

New technologies allow for asymmetric responses, like missiles that can be launched from the Chinese mainland to destroy aircraft carriers, or antisatellite weapons that for a million dollars can destroy a multibillion-dollar US satellite.62 Although it has devoted on average just 2 percent of its GDP to defense since the late 1980s (the US has spent closer to 4 percent),63 three decades of double-digit economic growth have allowed Chinese military capabilities to expand eightfold.64 Today its defense budget of $146 billion in market exchange rates (or $314 billion in PPP) ranks second only to that of the US, and is twice Russia’s.65 China’s growing military might will be discussed in greater detail in chapter 6. For now, suffice it to say that China has already secured a number of advantages on the battlefield. The most authoritative assessment of the changing balance of military power in the region is a 2015 RAND Corporation study called “The U.S.-China Military Scorecard.” The report finds that, by 2017, China will have an “advantage” or “approximate parity” in six of the nine areas of conventional capability: for instance, in launching attacks on air bases or surface targets, achieving air superiority, and preventing an opponent from using space-based weapons. The report concludes that over the next five to fifteen years, “Asia will witness a progressively receding frontier of U.S. dominance.”66 Like its economic progress, China’s military advances are rapidly undercutting America’s status as a global hegemon and are forcing US leaders to confront ugly truths about the limits of American power.

The United States temporarily controlled the islands after World War II, but in the early 1970s returned them to Japan, which had claimed them since the nineteenth century. But in the 1970s, China also claimed sovereignty over the islands. Chinese ships regularly pass through these waters, raising tensions between Beijing and Tokyo and risking a collision that could set off a chain reaction. Consider a scenario that provided the story line for a recent war game designed by the RAND Corporation.30 A group of Japanese ultranationalists sets sail for the Senkakus in small civilian watercraft. On social media, they explain they are headed for Kuba Jima, one of the smaller islands, which they intend to claim and occupy on behalf of Japan. They land and begin building unidentified structures. Taking a page out of the Chinese playbook, they live-stream their activities for the world to see.

See World Bank, “Military Expenditure (% of GDP),” http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS. [back] 64. Recall the Rule of 72: divide 72 by the annual growth rate to determine how long it will take to double. [back] 65. International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2016 (New York: Routledge, 2016), 19. [back] 66. Eric Heginbotham et al., The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017 (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2015), xxxi, xxix. [back] 67. In remarks to reporters at the May 2012 Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing, Clinton said of the US and China: “We look at the future with great optimism. And we believe that neither of us can afford to keep looking at the world through old lenses, whether it’s the legacy of imperialism, the Cold War, or balance-of-power politics. Zero sum thinking will lead to negative sum results.


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Computer: A History of the Information Machine by Martin Campbell-Kelly, William Aspray, Nathan L. Ensmenger, Jeffrey R. Yost

Ada Lovelace, air freight, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, Build a better mousetrap, Byte Shop, card file, cashless society, cloud computing, combinatorial explosion, computer age, deskilling, don't be evil, Donald Davies, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, Frederick Winslow Taylor, game design, garden city movement, Grace Hopper, informal economy, interchangeable parts, invention of the wheel, Jacquard loom, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, light touch regulation, linked data, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, natural language processing, Network effects, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, Occupy movement, optical character recognition, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, Pierre-Simon Laplace, pirate software, popular electronics, prediction markets, pre–internet, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, Robert X Cringely, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, the market place, Turing machine, Vannevar Bush, Von Neumann architecture, Whole Earth Catalog, William Shockley: the traitorous eight, women in the workforce, young professional

In yet another example of his widespread, polymathic influence, John von Neumann, this time in his role as the developer of modern game theory, would provide the tools for economists to reconceptualize their discipline in terms of systems of information exchange and processing. And in policy circles, the systems theorist Herman Kahn would pioneer the application of game theory and computer simulation to the geopolitics of thermonuclear war. Against the backdrop of late 1950s Cold War tensions, Kahn and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation developed computerized war games to “simulate the unthinkable.” The use of computer games to model complex social phenomena, having soon transcended the walls of the RAND Corporation and the Pentagon, was eventually applied to political analysis, policy formation, and city planning. THE COMPUTER BECOMES A COMMODITY Today, with the hindsight of historical perspective, IBM’s early domination of the computer market can be seen as largely a fortuitous inheritance. For twenty years, from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, IBM was blessed with a unique combination of organizational capabilities that equipped it perfectly for the mainframe computer market.

The second market was for “custom” programs of modest size, for ordinary computer users who did not have the in-house capability or resources to develop software. The first major firm in the large-systems sector of software contracting was the RAND Corporation, a government-owned defense contractor. It developed the software for the SAGE air-defense project. When the SAGE project was begun in the early 1950s, although IBM was awarded the contract to develop and manufacture the mainframe computers, writing the programs for the system—estimated at a million lines of code—was way beyond IBM’s or anyone else’s experience. The contract for the SAGE software was therefore given to the RAND Corporation in 1955. Although lacking any actual large-scale software writing capability, the corporation was judged to have the best potential for developing it. To undertake the mammoth programming task, the corporation created a separate organization in 1956, the System Development Corporation (SDC), which became America’s first major software contractor.

Martin Greenberger, a professor at the MIT Management School who was probably the first to describe the utility concept in print, argued in an Atlantic Monthly article that the drive for computer utilities was unstoppable and that “[b]arring unforeseen obstacles, an on-line interactive computer service, provided commercially by an information utility, may be as commonplace by A.D. 2000 as the telephone service is today.” The computer utility vision was widely shared by computer pundits at the end of the 1960s. Paul Baran, a computer-communications specialist at the RAND Corporation, waxed eloquent about the computer utility in the home: And while it may seem odd to think of piping computing power into homes, it may not be as far-fetched as it sounds. We will speak to the computers of the future in a language simple to learn and easy to use. Our home computer console will be used to send and receive messages—like telegrams. We could check to see whether the local department store has the advertised sports shirt in stock in the desired color and size.


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If Then: How Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future by Jill Lepore

A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, anti-communist, Buckminster Fuller, computer age, coronavirus, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, game design, George Gilder, Grace Hopper, Hacker Ethic, Howard Zinn, index card, information retrieval, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, Jeffrey Epstein, job automation, land reform, linear programming, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, mass incarceration, Maui Hawaii, Menlo Park, New Journalism, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, packet switching, Peter Thiel, profit motive, RAND corporation, Robert Bork, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Telecommunications Act of 1996, urban renewal, War on Poverty, white flight, Whole Earth Catalog

   — antiwar movement and, 234–35    — arrest in Atlanta, 120    — assassination, 102, 268–69, 270, 276, 322    — Montgomery bus boycott, 73–74    — speech at Lincoln Memorial, 199    — Wofford and, 14, 112 Kissinger, Henry, 290 Kochen, Manfred, 76–77, 347n Komer, Robert, 228, 241, 247, 248, 250, 267 Kristol, Irving, 192, 308, 367n Kubrick, Stanley, 148, 173–75, 276–77, 364n Lang, Kurt, 265 Lanier, Jaron, 322 Lansdale, Edward, 61, 219 Lasky, Victor, 132–33 Lasswell, Harold    — Burdick and, 31–33    — Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 34, 37, 44    — content analysis, 55, 262    — education and early career, 33    — Experimental Division for the Study of Wartime Communications, 53–54    — Greenfield and, 13, 31, 33–34, 61    — on Morgan’s article in Harper’s, 126    — Pool and, 52, 53–55, 343nn    — RAND Corporation and, 50    — Simulmatics Corporation founder, 32, 142    — at Stanford, 54–55    — Stevenson and 1960 election, 103 Lazarsfeld, Paul    — Bureau of Applied Social Research at Columbia, 34, 81–82, 84, 87    — Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 34, 37, 44    — McPhee and, 81–82, 83–84, 87, 348n    — RAND Corporation and, 50    — Stevenson and 1960 election, 103 Le, Kim, 238–39, 303 Lederer, William, 157–58, 182, 247–48, 361n Lehrer, Tom, 171 Leibovitz, Annie, 312 Lerner, Daniel, 54–55, 58, 344n Levandowski, Anthony, 328 Lewis, Anthony, 309 Leyland, George, 293–94, 384n “Liberty in Shackles” (Wicker), 309 Libraries of the Future (Licklider), 284 Library of Congress, 33, 53, 280 Licklider, J.C.R

Gaither’s report complained that existing ways of studying human behavior—both ancient humanistic fields like philosophy and political theory and modern fields like psychology and sociology—were “polemical, speculative, and pre-scientific.” He recommended turning the study of human behavior into a science, like physics, to be based on “experiment, the accumulation of data, the framing of general theories, attempts to verify the theories, and prediction.”25 After all, if a body of knowledge couldn’t be used to make predictions, what use was it? Before working for Ford, Gaither had helped found the RAND Corporation, in Santa Monica. RAND—short for “Research and Development”—had begun as an arm of the U.S. Air Force, part of the Douglas Aircraft Company, but in 1948, newly independent, and with funding from both the Department of Defense and the Ford Foundation, RAND had hired a pioneer in psychological warfare to head its new Social Science Division.26 Its projects included charting, mathematically, “a general theory of the future.”27 Prophecy is ancient, a species of mysticism.

Describing the social sciences as “the new humanities of the Twentieth Century,” Pool argued that while statesmen in times past had consulted philosophy, literature, and history, statesmen of the Cold War era were instead obligated to consult the behavioral sciences. The “McNamara revolution,” he argued, had “remade American defense policy in accordance with a series of ideas that germinated in the late 1950’s in the RAND corporation.” Given a choice “between policy based on moralisms and policy based on social science,” he was glad to report that the secretary of defense had rejected the humanities and morality in favor of behavioral science and rationality.30 The more unpopular the war in Vietnam, the deeper Pool’s commitment, and the closer he grew not only to the Pentagon but to the White House. He’d sometimes bring his young son with him when he went to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue; he’d park him in the Oval Office.


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The Rise of the Network Society by Manuel Castells

"Robert Solow", Apple II, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Noyce, borderless world, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, complexity theory, computer age, computerized trading, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, declining real wages, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, deskilling, disintermediation, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, edge city, experimental subject, financial deregulation, financial independence, floating exchange rates, future of work, global village, Gunnar Myrdal, Hacker Ethic, hiring and firing, Howard Rheingold, illegal immigration, income inequality, Induced demand, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, intermodal, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, job-hopping, John Markoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, Leonard Kleinrock, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, moral panic, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, packet switching, Pearl River Delta, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, popular capitalism, popular electronics, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social software, South China Sea, South of Market, San Francisco, special economic zone, spinning jenny, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Ted Nelson, the built environment, the medium is the message, the new new thing, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, urban renewal, urban sprawl, zero-sum game

For an empirical study of the growth of the Internet, see Batty and Barr (1994). For a discussion of Internet’s prospects, see a study by the Rand Corporation available only on-line at the time of writing: Rand Corporation (1995). 72 Cerf (1999). 73 Kahn (1999). 74 Zook (2000c). 75 UNDP (1999); UNESCO (1999); US Department of Commerce (1999b); Castells and Kiselyova (2000); Zook (2000a). 76 See, for instance, Comision de nuevas tecnologias (1999). 77 Dutton (1999); UNESCO (1999). 78 Zook (2000b). 79 Markoff (1995). 80 De Kerckhove (1997). 81 Harmon (1999); Linus Torvalds (personal communication, 1999). 82 Himannen (2001). 83 Gitlin (1987); Rand Corporation (1995). 84 To follow Rheingold’s (1993) biological image. 85 Rheingold (1993). 86 Rheingold (1993); Turkle (1995); Jones (1995, 1997, 1998); Kiesler (1997). 87 Barlow (1995: 40). 88 Mitchell (1995, 1999). 89 Turkle (1995: 267). 90 Slouka (1995). 91 Wolton (1998). 92 Kraut et al. (1998). 93 Wellman et al. (1996); Wellman (1997); Wellman and Gulia (1999). 94 Castells (1972); Wellman (1979); Fischer (1982). 95 Wellman and Gulia (1999: 355). 96 Putnam (1995). 97 Wellman and Gulia (1999: 350). 98 Sproull and Kiesler (1991); Rand Corporation (1995). 99 Hiltz and Turoff (1993); Sato et al. (1995), US Department of Commerce (1999). 100 Gurstein (1990). 101 Montgomery (1999: 15). 102 Baym (1998: 55). 103 Dyson (1998). 104 US Library of Congress (1999). 105 Lanham (1993); Rand Corporation (1995). 106 Specter (1994). 107 Armstrong (1994). 108 Abramson et al. (1988); Epstein (1995). 109 Castells et al. (1996). 110 Ganley (1991); Varley (1991). 111 Patrice Riemens (personal communication – face to face, handwritten mail, electronic mail – 1997/99). 112 Schuler (1996). 113 Keck and Sikkink (1998). 114 December (1993), cited and summarized by Benson (1994). 115 De Kerckhove (1997: 51). 116 Dutton (1999). 117 Fischer (1992). 118 Rheingold (1993). 119 Castells and Kiselyova (2000). 120 Sullivan-Trainor (1994). 121 Telecommunications Council (1994). 122 Thery (1994). 123 Banegas (1993). 124 See, among a myriad of business sources on the matter, Bird (1994); Bunker (1994); Dalloz and Portnoff (1994); Herther (1994). 125 The Economist (1994a). 126 Schiller (1999). 127 Business Week (1994h). 128 Elmer-Dewwit (1993); Poirier (1993); Business Week (1994d). 129 New Media Markets (1993). 130 Owen (1999: ch.17). 131 Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (1994); New Media Markets (1994). 132 Kaplan (1992); Sellers (1993); Booker (1994); Business Week (1994e); Lizzio (1994); Wexler (1994). 133 Owen (1999: 313). 134 Business Week (1994f). 135 Dentsu Institute for Human Studies (1994: 117). 136 Martin (1994). 137 Owen (1999: 4). 138 Bunker (1994); Business Week (1994f); Cuneo (1994); The Economist (1994a). 139 Piller (1994). 140 Tobenkin (1993); Martin (1994). 141 Van der Haak (1999). 142 Moran (1993). 143 Dentsu Institute for Human Studies (1994: 140–3). 144 Negroponte (1995). 145 Baudrillard (1972); Barthes (1978). 146 Oxford Dictionary of Current English (1992). 6 The Space of Flows Space and time are the fundamental, material dimensions of human life.

For a discussion of Internet’s prospects, see a study by the Rand Corporation available only on-line at the time of writing: Rand Corporation (1995). 72 Cerf (1999). 73 Kahn (1999). 74 Zook (2000c). 75 UNDP (1999); UNESCO (1999); US Department of Commerce (1999b); Castells and Kiselyova (2000); Zook (2000a). 76 See, for instance, Comision de nuevas tecnologias (1999). 77 Dutton (1999); UNESCO (1999). 78 Zook (2000b). 79 Markoff (1995). 80 De Kerckhove (1997). 81 Harmon (1999); Linus Torvalds (personal communication, 1999). 82 Himannen (2001). 83 Gitlin (1987); Rand Corporation (1995). 84 To follow Rheingold’s (1993) biological image. 85 Rheingold (1993). 86 Rheingold (1993); Turkle (1995); Jones (1995, 1997, 1998); Kiesler (1997). 87 Barlow (1995: 40). 88 Mitchell (1995, 1999). 89 Turkle (1995: 267). 90 Slouka (1995). 91 Wolton (1998). 92 Kraut et al. (1998). 93 Wellman et al. (1996); Wellman (1997); Wellman and Gulia (1999). 94 Castells (1972); Wellman (1979); Fischer (1982). 95 Wellman and Gulia (1999: 355). 96 Putnam (1995). 97 Wellman and Gulia (1999: 350). 98 Sproull and Kiesler (1991); Rand Corporation (1995). 99 Hiltz and Turoff (1993); Sato et al. (1995), US Department of Commerce (1999). 100 Gurstein (1990). 101 Montgomery (1999: 15). 102 Baym (1998: 55). 103 Dyson (1998). 104 US Library of Congress (1999). 105 Lanham (1993); Rand Corporation (1995). 106 Specter (1994). 107 Armstrong (1994). 108 Abramson et al. (1988); Epstein (1995). 109 Castells et al. (1996). 110 Ganley (1991); Varley (1991). 111 Patrice Riemens (personal communication – face to face, handwritten mail, electronic mail – 1997/99). 112 Schuler (1996). 113 Keck and Sikkink (1998). 114 December (1993), cited and summarized by Benson (1994). 115 De Kerckhove (1997: 51). 116 Dutton (1999). 117 Fischer (1992). 118 Rheingold (1993). 119 Castells and Kiselyova (2000). 120 Sullivan-Trainor (1994). 121 Telecommunications Council (1994). 122 Thery (1994). 123 Banegas (1993). 124 See, among a myriad of business sources on the matter, Bird (1994); Bunker (1994); Dalloz and Portnoff (1994); Herther (1994). 125 The Economist (1994a). 126 Schiller (1999). 127 Business Week (1994h). 128 Elmer-Dewwit (1993); Poirier (1993); Business Week (1994d). 129 New Media Markets (1993). 130 Owen (1999: ch.17). 131 Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications (1994); New Media Markets (1994). 132 Kaplan (1992); Sellers (1993); Booker (1994); Business Week (1994e); Lizzio (1994); Wexler (1994). 133 Owen (1999: 313). 134 Business Week (1994f). 135 Dentsu Institute for Human Studies (1994: 117). 136 Martin (1994). 137 Owen (1999: 4). 138 Bunker (1994); Business Week (1994f); Cuneo (1994); The Economist (1994a). 139 Piller (1994). 140 Tobenkin (1993); Martin (1994). 141 Van der Haak (1999). 142 Moran (1993). 143 Dentsu Institute for Human Studies (1994: 140–3). 144 Negroponte (1995). 145 Baudrillard (1972); Barthes (1978). 146 Oxford Dictionary of Current English (1992). 6 The Space of Flows Space and time are the fundamental, material dimensions of human life.

The creation of the Internet The creation and development of the Internet in the last three decades on the twentieth century resulted from a unique blending of military strategy, big science cooperation, technological entrepreneurship, and countercultural innovation.49 The origins of the Internet lie in the work of one of the most innovative research institutions in the world: the US Defense Department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA). When in the late 1950s the launching of the first Sputnik alarmed the American high-tech military establishment, ARPA undertook a number of bold initiatives, some of which changed the history of technology and ushered in the Information Age on a grand scale. One of these strategies, developing an idea conceived by Paul Baran at Rand Corporation in 1960–4, was to design a communications system invulnerable to nuclear attack. Based on packet-switching communication technology, the system made the network independent of command and control centers, so that message units would find their own routes along the network, being reassembled in coherent meaning at any point in the network. When, later on, digital technology allowed the packaging of all kind of messages, including sound, images, and data, a network was formed that was able to communicate its nodes without using control centers.


pages: 509 words: 132,327

Rise of the Machines: A Cybernetic History by Thomas Rid

1960s counterculture, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Alistair Cooke, Apple II, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Brownian motion, Buckminster Fuller, business intelligence, Charles Lindbergh, Claude Shannon: information theory, conceptual framework, connected car, domain-specific language, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, dumpster diving, Extropian, full employment, game design, global village, Haight Ashbury, Howard Rheingold, Jaron Lanier, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Kubernetes, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, Mother of all demos, new economy, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, Simon Singh, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Telecommunications Act of 1996, telepresence, The Hackers Conference, Vernor Vinge, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, Y2K, Yom Kippur War, Zimmermann PGP

He foresaw the widespread use of nuclear reactors for power, new techniques for birth control, commercial oil extraction from shale, “pocket phones,” and the use of home computers. Nineteen sixty-seven was one year before Intel was founded and two years before ARPANET was launched, the famous predecessor to the internet initially funded by the Pentagon’s Advanced Research Projects Agency Network, later called DARPA (the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency). Yet Kahn saw the writing on the wall: the computer revolution—as this man, the Rand Corporation’s foremost nuclear thinker saw it—was the most important, most salient, and most exciting aspect of modern technology.80 Remarkably, Kahn even suspected that “each user” might have a private file space in a central computer, for such uses as consulting the Library of Congress. Computer access would be used to reduce crime, as police can check immediately the record “of any person stopped for questioning.”

On April 25, 1963, Licklider wrote a famous memorandum, addressed to “members and affiliates of the Intergalactic Computer Network.”85 This was meant in irony, “as you may have detected in the above-Subject,” he wrote to his colleagues and collaborators in the memo. “I am at a loss for a name.” Then Licklider articulated in more detail what this computer network was supposed to be all about: the advancement of the art of information processing, and “the advancement of intellectual capability (man, man-machine, or machine),” Licklider wrote. The memo went out to ARPA-contracted researchers at Stanford University, UC Berkeley, UCLA, MIT, the Rand Corporation, and several contractors in industry. To make progress in these endeavors, he reckoned, each researcher needed hardware facilities, as well as a software base more complex and more extensive than one person alone could build. The only solution was a network of computers, a network of individual “thinking centers,” as he called it. The researchers played a key role in conceiving and funding ARPANET.

These weapons would be “autonomous,” in one of the phrases then preferred by weapon designers. An example was the navy’s Tomahawk cruise missile. Cyberwar meant crewless tanks, cruise missiles that behave like kamikaze robots, head-to-toe battle gear with microclimate control and hazard protection for the infantry, as well as “anti-missile satellites.”20 Some thought this characterization was too simple. The following year, two Rand Corporation analysts—John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt—published an influential paper, “Cyberwar Is Coming!” Autonomous weapons weren’t enough, they argued. The respected think-tank veterans injected a fresh and controversial idea into the Washington defense establishment. Arquilla and Ronfeldt also disagreed with the prevailing view within the Joint Staff, then still headed by Colin Powell: that overwhelming force was necessary to win the next war.


The Washington Connection and Third World Fascism by Noam Chomsky

anti-communist, business climate, colonial rule, declining real wages, deliberate practice, European colonialism, friendly fire, Gini coefficient, income inequality, income per capita, land reform, land tenure, new economy, RAND corporation, strikebreaker, union organizing

To cite only one of innumerable examples, the Wall Street Journal published a forecast by former CIA analyst, Samuel Adams, that 100,000 people would be murdered in the event of a Communist victory in Vietnam, which relied heavily on a hysterical propaganda tract by Craig Hosmer put out by the Rand Corporation.110 The Journal refused at the time to publish any criticism of the Adams piece and has subsequently never gotten around to discussing where the Adams forecast went wrong. For readers of the Journal, the Vietnamese Communists might be said to have killed 100,000 people in a postwar bloodbath, an “Asian Auschwitz”(see note 109, chapter 2). It is one of the public functions of both right-wing and official think tanks like the Rand Corporation, the Hoover Institution, the Hudson Institute, and academic social science scholarship more broadly, to show that they are evil and we are good—though we occasionally err.

Bishop Dom Pedro Casaldaliga, “The Gospel Is My Weapon,” 12 October 1975, Latin America Press (6 November 1975). 39. “I Have Heard the Cry of my People,” a statement signed by 18 Catholic religious leaders of Northeast Brazil, 6 May 1973, IDOC translation and reprint, p. 43. 40. E. Bradford Burns, “Brazil: The Imitative Society,” The Nation, 10 July 1972, quoted in Black, op. cit., p. 261. 41. Konrad Kellen, “1971 and Beyond: The View From Hanoi,” Rand Corporation (June 1971), pp. 14-15. 42. The flavor of “our” South Vietnam may be captured, however, in the finding by one former AID employee: “I have personally witnessed poor urban people literally quaking with fear when I questioned them about the activity of the secret police in a post election campaign. One poor fisherman in Da Nang, animated and talkative in complaining about economic conditions, clammed up in near terror when queried about the police....”

As Buttinger remarks, “It required a tidal wave of falsehood to persuade Americans into accepting the myth that not French, but Communist, aggression was responsible for the first Indochina war” (ibid., p. 22), as was constantly trumpeted by Dean Acheson and a host of sycophants. 15. Jeffrey Race, War Comes to Long An, University of California, 1971, p. 197; to date, the best account of the origins of the insurgency under the U.S.-Diem regime. There is also important material on this subject in the massive “Vietcong Motivation and Morale Study” undertaken by the Rand Corporation. For an interesting study based on this generally ignored material, see David Hunt, “Organizing for Revolution in Vietnam,” Radical America, vol. 8, nos. 1-2, 1974. See also Georges Chaffard, Les deux guerres du Vietnam, La Table Ronde, Paris, 1969. U.S. government sources, in addition to the Pentagon Papers, also contain much useful information: see Robert L. Sansom, The Economics of Insurgency In the Mekong Delta, MIT Press, 1970; Douglas Pike, Viet Cong, MIT Press, 1966 (here, one must be careful to distinguish the documentary evidence presented from the conclusions asserted); William A.


pages: 453 words: 111,010

Licence to be Bad by Jonathan Aldred

"Robert Solow", Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, Ayatollah Khomeini, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Snowden, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, feminist movement, framing effect, Frederick Winslow Taylor, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, full employment, George Akerlof, glass ceiling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Long Term Capital Management, Louis Bachelier, mandelbrot fractal, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mont Pelerin Society, mutually assured destruction, Myron Scholes, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, nudge unit, obamacare, offshore financial centre, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, plutocrats, Plutocrats, positional goods, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, spectrum auction, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, Vilfredo Pareto, wealth creators, zero-sum game

Some ideas are flawed from the start. In all this messy diversity we see the interplay of politics, culture and chance in shaping the spread of ideas. And the paradoxical quality of appealing, seductive ideas which turn out to do great damage. The stories of these high priests are varied, but together they show how economics has come to dominate our lives. 2 Trust No One Oh, the RAND Corporation is the boon of the world; They think all day for a fee. They sit and play games about going up in flames, For counters they use you and me, Honey Bee, For counters they use you and me.1 In the fall of 1948 most of the newly arrived postgraduate maths students at Princeton University in New Jersey were cocky, but one was even cockier. Still only nineteen, he was always boasting about his mathematical prowess.

To understand Nash’s brilliant idea – and the way it changed the direction of economics, as well as much of social science, biology, philosophy and law – we need to begin with the time, the place and the theory out of which it emerged. The time and place was early 1950s Santa Monica, at the end of the Malibu Beach Crescent, just west of Los Angeles. The seaside promenade was lined with hotels and retirement homes, shades of cream and pink punctuated by bursts of vivid bougainvillea. The scent of oleander hung in the air. Santa Monica was an improbable setting for the offices of the RAND Corporation, a secretive think tank employing mathematicians and scientists to develop military strategy for potential nuclear war with the USSR. The Korean War had just begun and the Cold War was getting hot. The atmosphere at RAND combined paranoia, megalomania and a worship of abstract logic. Nuclear military technology was still in its infancy, and during the Second World War US generals had realized that they needed advice on the best way to deploy the latest weapons, from radar to long-range missiles, as well as the atom bomb.

It is the world of modern economic theory, one which I was hoping to persuade economists to leave.’23 The usual spelling is ‘Coasean’, not Coase’s choice of ‘Coasian’. Poor Ronald Coase – he didn’t even get to control the spelling of ‘Coasean world’, let alone what it means. 4 The Government Enemy In the early 1950s John von Neumann and John Nash were not the only geniuses associated with the RAND Corporation. RAND was the incubator for another intellectual revolution, as significant as game theory but completely independent of it. And this time the genius behind it was a lowly intern. The earliest and most enthusiastic adopters of game theory had been the military analysts at RAND, who wanted to use its powerful mathematical tools to outwit the Soviets in Cold War nuclear strategizing. But logical rigour was everything to the RAND thinkers, and by 1948 a possible flaw had been spotted in the logic of analysing nuclear conflict in game-theoretic terms.


pages: 1,073 words: 314,528

Strategy: A History by Lawrence Freedman

Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, Black Swan, British Empire, business process, butterfly effect, centre right, Charles Lindbergh, circulation of elites, cognitive dissonance, coherent worldview, collective bargaining, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, defense in depth, desegregation, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, endogenous growth, endowment effect, Ford paid five dollars a day, framing effect, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, lateral thinking, linear programming, loose coupling, loss aversion, Mahatma Gandhi, means of production, mental accounting, Murray Gell-Mann, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Nelson Mandela, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, oil shock, Pareto efficiency, performance metric, Philip Mirowski, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, shareholder value, social intelligence, Steven Pinker, strikebreaker, The Chicago School, The Myth of the Rational Market, the scientific method, theory of mind, Thomas Davenport, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Torches of Freedom, Toyota Production System, transaction costs, ultimatum game, unemployed young men, Upton Sinclair, urban sprawl, Vilfredo Pareto, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game

This was not because it was uniquely fitted for this intellectual purpose but because of deliberate decisions to adopt it as the foundation of a new science of decision-making and the active promotion of this new science by bodies such as the RAND Corporation and the Ford Foundation, both of which encouraged its embrace by business schools. As with Plato’s philosophy, a new discipline that offered eternal truths was created in part by disparaging and caricaturing what had gone before for its lack of rigor. The best place to start this story is with the RAND Corporation, which we identified in the last section as the home of game theory and the belief that a formal science of decision could be developed. This effort gained credibility because of the very special issues posed by nuclear weapons. The effort transformed thinking about not only strategy but also economics because it demonstrated the possibilities opened up by powerful computing capabilities for modeling all forms of human activity.

See also crowd psychology Cornford on, 618 of the deed (Bakunin), 275–276 First World War and, 337, 339 Lippmann on, 339 Nazis and, 336, 342–343, 414 Propaganda (Bernays), 341 Protagoras, 36 Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, The (Weber), 302 Proudhon, Joseph, 251, 270, 274, 668n27 Prussia Austro-Prussian War and, 105 Franco-Prussian War and, 105–107, 112, 274–275 Napoleonic Wars and, 78–79, 82 Public Opinion (Lippman), 337, 340 Pullman strike, 313–315 Quakerism, 346 quantitative analysis. See also game theory limitations of, 150, 203 McNamara and, 149–150, 199, 202, 501–502, 546 RAND Corporation and, 147–148, 152–153, 513–514 Quayle, Dan, 452–453, 690n51 Quiet American, The (Greene), 187 “Quiz Kids.” See “Whiz Kids” radical Islamists, 222, 235–236. See also al-Qaeda Raff, Daniel, 616 Raiffa, Howard, 161–162, 514 Ramsey, Douglas, 506 RAND Corporation game theory and, 161–162, 513 nuclear strategy and, 161–162, 168 quantitative emphasis of, 147–148, 150, 152–153, 513–514 rational choice theory and, 575–577 Randolph, A. Philip, 356 Raphals, Lisa, 43 Rapoport, Anatol, 585 Rapport, Mike, 250 rational choice theory.

As one of the key figures in the British program noted, the methodology used was closer to classical economics than physics, although economists were not directly engaged.8 During the course of the war, operations research—as the new field came to be known—made major strides in support of actual operations, including working out the safest arrangement for convoys in the face of submarine attack or choosing targets for air raids.9 Mathematicians and physicists made more of an impact in the United States, notably those who became involved in the Manhattan Project, the organization which had led to the production of the first atomic bomb. The center for the postwar application of such methods to practical, and particularly military, problems was the RAND Corporation, which became the prototypical “think tank.” The organization was set up under an air force grant to develop operational research. It soon became an independent nonprofit corporation addressing defense issues and other aspects of public policy using advanced analytical techniques. RAND began by recruiting natural scientists and engineers who expected to deal with hardware. Sharon Ghamari-Tabrizi describes RAND as fashioning itself as a cold war avant-garde, self-consciously exploratory and experimental, with an “insouciant disregard” for traditional forms of military experience.10 Soon it was hiring economists and other social scientists.


pages: 330 words: 83,319

The New Rules of War: Victory in the Age of Durable Disorder by Sean McFate

active measures, anti-communist, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, cognitive dissonance, commoditize, computer vision, corporate governance, corporate raider, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, double helix, drone strike, European colonialism, failed state, hive mind, index fund, invisible hand, John Markoff, joint-stock company, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, offshore financial centre, pattern recognition, Peace of Westphalia, plutocrats, Plutocrats, private military company, profit motive, RAND corporation, ransomware, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, Stuxnet, technoutopianism, Washington Consensus, Westphalian system, yellow journalism, Yom Kippur War, zero day, zero-sum game

Grand Strategy The problem is that the United States has tied its end state to maintaining global peace and prosperity but has failed to conjure a meaningful grand strategy to achieve this. There is also another problem. “Grand strategy is the biggest crock of shit.” “Say again?” I ask, nearly dropping my sandwich. “Grand strategy is a myth. It doesn’t exist,” says Dan, a colleague at the RAND Corporation, a Department of Defense–sponsored think tank. “Those are fighting words,” I say, half-seriously. “Bring it on,” he replies, slurping his sweet tea with a smirk. We are sitting on a park bench in the middle of the Pentagon courtyard eating lunch. It’s the only park in America that has no squirrels. At the center is a small building that has fueled conspiracy theorists for generations. In reality, it’s a café that was nicknamed “Ground Zero” during the Cold War, and it’s where we picked up our lunch.

Wars no longer end but smolder in perpetuity: Matthew Hoddie and Caroline Hartzell, “Civil War Settlements and the Implementation of Military Power-Sharing Arrangements,” Journal of Peace Research 40, no. 3 (2003): 303–20; Monica Duffy Toft, Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009); Ben Connable and Martin C. Libicki, How Insurgencies End, vol. 965 (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2010); Roger Mac Ginty, “No War, No Peace: Why So Many Peace Processes Fail to Deliver Peace,” International Politics 47 no. 2 (2010): 145–62; Jasmine-Kim Westendorf, Why Peace Processes Fail: Negotiating Insecurity after Civil War (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2015). Why Do We Get War Wrong? 1. War futurists are almost always wrong: Lawrence Freedman, The Future of War: A History (New York: Public Affairs, 2017). 2.

Schooner and Collin Swan, “Contractors and the Ultimate Sacrifice,” The George Washington University Law School, working paper no. 512 (September 2010); Christian Miller, “Civilian Contractor Toll in Iraq and Afghanistan Ignored By Defense Dept,” ProPublica, 9 October 2009. 11. Contractor PTSD and casualties: Molly Dunigan et al., Out of the Shadows: The Health and Well-Being of Private Contractors Working in Conflict Environments (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2013); Contingency Contracting: DOD, State, and U.S.AID Continue to Face Challenges in Tracking Contractor Personnel and Contracts in Iraq and Afghanistan, GAO-10-1 (Washington: US Government Accountability Office, 2009), www.gao.gov/new.items/d101.pdf; Justin Elliott, “Hundreds of Afghanistan Contractor Deaths Go Unreported,” Salon, 15 July 2010. “Statistics on the Private Security Industry,” Private Security Monitor, University of Denver, accessed 13 June 2018, http://psm.du.edu/articles_reports_statistics/data_and_statistics.html. 12.


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Armed Humanitarians by Nathan Hodge

Andrei Shleifer, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, clean water, colonial rule, European colonialism, failed state, friendly fire, IFF: identification friend or foe, jobless men, Khyber Pass, kremlinology, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, old-boy network, Potemkin village, private military company, profit motive, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, walking around money

., p. xiii. 8 David Petraeus, “The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam: A Study of Military Influence and the Use of Force in the Post-Vietnam Era,” Ph.D. diss., Princeton University, 1987. 9 See Robert Komer, The Malayan Emergency in Retrospect: Organization of a Successful Counterinsurgency Effort (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1972). 10 Sylvia Ellis, Britain, America and the Vietnam War (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2004), p. 2. 11 Sir Robert Thompson, “Squaring the Error,” Foreign Policy, April 1968. 12 Robert Thompson, Peace Is Not at Hand (New York: David McKay, 1974), p. 71. 13 Colby and McCargar, Lost Victory, p. 263. 14 Robert Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S-GVN Performance in Vietnam (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1972), pp. v–ix. 15 Thompson, Peace Is Not at Hand, p. 59. 16 Ibid., p. 35. 17 Colby and McCargar, Lost Victory, p. 91. 18 Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing, p. 113. 19 Ibid., p. 115. 20 Ibid., p. xi. 21 Nguyen Van Thieu, letter to President Richard Nixon, March 20, 1973, The American Presidency Project, www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?

Vietnam: A History. Revised and updated. New York: Penguin Books, 1997. Kilcullen, David. The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009. Komer, Robert. Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S-GVN Performance in Vietnam. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1972. Komer, Robert. The Malayan Emergency in Retrospect: Organization of a Successful Counterinsurgency Effort. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1972. Krepinevich, Andrew. The Army and Vietnam. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986. LeMoine, Ray, and Jeff Neumann, with Donovan Webster. Babylon by Bus. New York: Penguin Press, 2006. Loeffler, Jane. The Architecture of Diplomacy: Building America’s Embassies. New York: Princeton Architectural Press, 1998.

: Washington Institute for Near East Policy), January 27, 2005. 10 Sergeant First Class Doug Sample, “Task Force Commander Says Insurgents ‘Desperate, Isolated,’ ” American Forces Press Service, March 9, 2004. 11 Daniel Gonzales, John Hollywood, et al., Networked Forces in Stability Operations: 101st Airborne Division, 3/2 and 1/25 Stryker Brigades in Northern Iraq (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2007). 12 Colonel Lloyd Sammons, interview by Plotkin. 13 Gonzales, Hollywood, et al., Networked Forces in Stability Operations. 14 U.S. General Accounting Office, “Defense Transformation: Army’s Evaluation of Stryker and M113A3 Infantry Carrier Vehicles Provided Sufficient Data for Statutorily Mandated Comparison,” publication GAO-03-671, May 2003, www.gao.gov/new.items/d03671.pdf. 15 “Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 45: Non-Governmental Organizations.” 16 Integrated Regional Information Network, Iraq: “NGO registration causes controversy,” January 13, 2004, www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?


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The Great Firewall of China by James Griffiths;

A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, bitcoin, borderless world, call centre, Chelsea Manning, Deng Xiaoping, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, gig economy, jimmy wales, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mitch Kapor, mobile money, Occupy movement, pets.com, profit motive, QR code, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Snapchat, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Stuxnet, technoutopianism, undersea cable, WikiLeaks, zero day

Law enforcement officials said the purpose may have been to build up a giant database of federal employees who could be targeted at a later time for blackmail or identity theft, potentially compromising dozens of government agencies.16 China, just like in previous cases, strenuously denied the allegations, but in mid-2017 the FBI arrested a Chinese national in connection with the case as he entered the US for a security conference.17 In the wake of the Unit 61398 indictments and the OPM hack, President Barack Obama hosted Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House, where the two men signed a major bilateral agreement promising “that neither country’s government will conduct or knowingly support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, including trade secrets or other confidential information”.18 The deal was a big diplomatic win for Obama as he neared the end of his second term, one of the few concessions he scored from an increasingly assertive China despite his much vaunted ‘pivot to Asia’ and attempts to contain Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea. The Rand Corporation, a US think tank closely linked to the government and defence industry, described the agreement as a “good first step”, but many were sceptical about how closely China would stick to the letter of the deal.19 Initial signs were good. Security agency FireEye said in a 2016 report that there had been a “notable decline” in the number of Chinese intrusions against companies in the US and twenty-five other countries.

Hai, ‘Statement of Lin Hai, computer scientist, Shanghai, China’, Congressional-Executive Commission on China, 4 November 2002, https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-107hhrg83512/html/CHRG-107hhrg83512.htm 8G. Epstein, ‘Cat and mouse’, The Economist, 6 April 2013, https://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21574629-how-china-makes-sure-its-internet-abides-rules-cat-and-mouse 9M. Chase and J. Mulvenon, You’ve Got Dissent! Chinese dissident use of the internet and Beijing’s counter-strategies, Santa Monica CA: Rand Corporation, 2002, p. 54, https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1543.html 10K. Platt, ‘China hits at e-mail to curb dissent’, The Christian Science Monitor, 31 December 1998, https://www.csmonitor.com/1998/1231/123198.intl.intl.1.html 11C. Smith, ‘China sentences internet entrepreneur for trading e-mail list with dissidents’, The Wall Street Journal, 21 January 1999, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB916818019827637500 12Smith, ‘China sentences internet entrepreneur’. 13Barme and Ye, ‘The Great Firewall of China’. 14S.

Perez, ‘FBI arrests Chinese national connected to malware used in OPM data breach’, CNN, 24 August 2017, http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/24/politics/fbi-arrests-chinese-national-in-opm-data-breach/index.html 18‘President Xi Jinping’s state visit to the United States’, Office of the Press Secretary, White House, 25 September 2015, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/fact-sheet-president-xi-jinpings-state-visit-united-states 19S. Harold, ‘The US–China cyber agreement: a good first step’, Rand Corporation, 1 August 2016, https://www.rand.org/blog/2016/08/the-us-china-cyber-agreement-a-good-first-step.html 20FireEye, Red Line Drawn: Chinese recalculates its use of cyberespionage, Milpitas CA: FireEye, 2016, https://www.fireeye.com/content/dam/fireeye-www/current-threats/pdfs/rpt-china-espionage.pdf 21S. Kravchenko, ‘Russia more prey than predator to cyber firm wary of China’, Bloomberg, 25 August 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-25/russia-more-prey-than-predator-to-cyber-firm-wary-of-china Part 4 Chapter 17 1My account of Ilham and Jewher’s attempted flight from China is based on interviews with Jewher, and the account she gives in her book Jewher Ilham: a Uyghur’s fight to free her father. 2T.


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Let Them In: The Case for Open Borders by Jason L. Riley

affirmative action, business cycle, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, declining real wages, deindustrialization, desegregation, guest worker program, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, mass immigration, open borders, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Silicon Valley, trade liberalization, War on Poverty, working poor, working-age population, zero-sum game

California has by far the country’s largest illegal alien population at 2.8 million (though the state’s share of the nation’s total has been falling), followed once again by Texas, which has half as many undocumented migrants. The experience of these two states is instructive, or should be, for anyone interested in facts about public benefits and immigrants, rather than emotion or populist rhetoric. In what its authors describe as “the most detailed analysis to date of immigrants and their use of health services,” a 2006 Rand Corporation study estimates that each year the United States spends “about $1.1 billion in federal, state, and local government funds on heath care for illegal immigrants aged 18-64.” That works out to $11 per household. Lou Dobbs informs his viewers that thousands of illegal alien lepers are scurrying across the Mexican border, infecting Americans and spiking health-care costs. But the Rand researchers found that nonelderly adult immigrants, both legal and illegal, made fewer visits to the hospital than their native-born counterparts.

Myers is hardly the only social scientist to notice Latino upward mobility, and California isn’t the only place it’s happening. In a definitive longitudinal study in the 1990s, sociologists Alejandro Portes and Ruben Rumbaut found substantial second-generation progress among Latinos in Miami and Fort Lauderdale as well. Nationwide cross-generational studies show the same results. In 2006, economist James Smith of the RAND Corporation found that successive generations of Latinos have experienced significant improvements in wages relative both to their fathers and grandfathers and to the native whites with whom they compete for jobs. And Roger Waldinger and Renee Reichl, two UCLA social scientists, found that while first-generation Mexican men earned just half as much as white natives in 2000, the second generation had upped their earnings to three-quarters of their Anglo counterparts.

See Republican restrictionist argument Ponnuru, Ramesh Pope, Carl population argument. See overpopulation argument Population Bomb, The (Ehrlich) population growth Portes, Alejandro Poverty Powell, Benjamin Prager, Dennis Prescott, Edward productivity professionals, immigrant ProjectUSA Proposition protectionism public school system Puerto Rican immigrants Race Betterment Foundation Racism RAND Corporation Randolph, A. Philip Reagan, Ronald, ix Rector, Robert Reichl, Renee Republican restrictionist argument alienation of Hispanic voters and Bracero Program and Bush, George W. vs. - concession of Hispanic vote and gamble on immigration issue in congressional elections of and House immigration “field hearings” and Immigration Control and Reform Act of (ICRA) and Kennedy-McCain bill of and losses in congressional elections of and Proposition in California and talk radio and welfare and Resource reduction-population increase argument restaurant industry Ricardo, David Richardson, Bill Ridge, Tom Rios, Xavier Rockefeller Foundation Rodgers, T.


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From Counterculture to Cyberculture: Stewart Brand, the Whole Earth Network, and the Rise of Digital Utopianism by Fred Turner

1960s counterculture, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, back-to-the-land, bioinformatics, Buckminster Fuller, business cycle, Claude Shannon: information theory, complexity theory, computer age, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dematerialisation, distributed generation, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, future of work, game design, George Gilder, global village, Golden Gate Park, Hacker Ethic, Haight Ashbury, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, informal economy, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, market bubble, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, means of production, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, Mother of all demos, new economy, Norbert Wiener, peer-to-peer, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, Productivity paradox, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Richard Stallman, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, South of Market, San Francisco, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Ted Nelson, Telecommunications Act of 1996, The Hackers Conference, theory of mind, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, Yom Kippur War

Paul Edwards has pointed out that in addition to researchers at MIT and government officials, SAGE involved heavy contributions from IBM (which built some fifty-six SAGE computers for approximately $30 million each) and the RAND Corporation (which wrote much of the computers’ software). Edwards, Closed World, 101–2. Hughes, Rescuing Prometheus, 16, 4. 54. Air Defense Systems Engineering Committee, “Air Defense System: ADSEC Final Report,” October 24, 1950, MITRE Corporation Archives, Bedford, MA, 2 –3, quoted in Hughes, Rescuing Prometheus, 21. 55. Hughes, Rescuing Prometheus, 66. 56. As Sharon Ghamari-Tabrizi has noted, there were important exceptions to this trend. On May 11, 1959, for instance, Life magazine published a photo essay on the RAND Corporation. Although most of the images depicted “people doing something iconically scientific,” the final image showed a group of analysts in suits, reclining together on the floor, surrounded by “the mise en scene for the modern intellectual,” including “futuristic chairs and a Japanese paper kite dangling from the ceiling.”

In its meetings, its publications, and its presentations, GBN offered those individuals a vision of the New Economy as a networked entity, open to management by elite social groups and charismatic leaders and linked by interpersonal and informational networks, an entity whose laws could be made visible through a mix of systems theory, collaborative social practice, and mystical insight. GBN’s particular blending of countercultural and techno-cultural organizational styles depended on its roots in two organizations, the Stanford Research Institute and Royal Dutch/Shell. In the 1950s and 1960s, SRI and Shell represented the apogee of the military and the industrial worlds. SRI had been founded in 1947 to offer business consulting for the oil industry, but, along with the RAND Corporation, it very quickly became one of the two leading American think tanks for the U.S. military. Royal Dutch/Shell was a multinational behemoth devoted to extracting and refining oil. Yet, elements of both organizations had embraced countercultural practices. GBN cofounders Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz, for instance, both worked at SRI just as the military-industrial consulting firm found itself coming to grips Networking the New Economy [ 185 ] with the counterculture around it.

They swallowed up the personal wisdom of senior officers rooted in combat experience in favor of intuitions arising from repeated trials of laboratory-staged simulations of future war.”18 Under conditions of nuclear uncertainty, analysts had to imagine the data to which they might apply the mathematical formulas, game theories, and computer technologies they had developed for earlier forms of combat. In short, they had to simulate the future. At the RAND Corporation and later, at his own Hudson Institute, Herman Kahn, perhaps the most well-known analyst of this period, began to present his simulations in the form of scenarios—narrative scripts of possible futures. These included his infamous scenarios for nuclear Armageddon, in which he tried to convince policymakers that nuclear warfare was a real possibility and one for which they should prepare, and his equally wellknown visions for America in the year 2000.19 On the one hand, Kahn’s work on nuclear war seemed to many to be the epitome of American technocratic hubris.


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In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan by Seth G. Jones

business climate, clean water, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, failed state, friendly fire, invisible hand, Khyber Pass, Mikhail Gorbachev, Murray Gell-Mann, open borders, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, trade route, zero-sum game

There he studied with strategic thinker Albert Wohlstetter, a prominent international relations scholar who led groundbreaking work on nuclear deterrence. Wohlstetter influenced the design and deployment of U.S. strategic forces through his research, developed the “second-strike” theory for deterring nuclear war, and originated “fail safe” and other methods for reducing the probability of accidental nuclear war.2 Wohlstetter served as a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, as an adviser to President John F. Kennedy during the Cuban missile crisis, and, beginning in 1964, as a professor at the University of Chicago. He had a significant influence on Khalilzad and helped him make contacts in Washington. After leaving Chicago in 1979, Khalilzad moved to New York to become a professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.3 The Brutal-Hearted Mountain Tribes During his studies with Wohlstetter, Khalilzad continued to monitor events in Afghanistan and, with his academic training completed, he began writing articles on the invasion using a pseudonym to protect members of his family who were still there.

The city is divided by the stream which bears its name, and is surrounded, particularly on the north and west, by numerous gardens and groves of fruit trees…. The charms of the climate and scenery of Caubul have been celebrated by many Persian and Indian writers. The beauty and abundance of its flowers are proverbial, and its fruits are transported to the remotest parts of India.32 As Kabul crumbled during the fighting, Zalmay Khalilzad, a senior analyst at the RAND Corporation, became perturbed at the waning U.S. interest in the region. “America has not helped Afghans and our friends in the region make the right decisions,” Khalilzad wrote in a scathing 1996 opinion piece in the Washington Post. “After the fall of the Soviet Union we stopped paying attention. This was a bad decision. Instability and war in Afghanistan provided fertile ground for terrorist groups to train and hide,” he noted cryptically.

The tribes were granted maximum autonomy and allowed to run their affairs in accordance with their Islamic faith, customs, and traditions. Tribal elders, known as maliks, were given special favors by the British in return for maintaining peace, keeping open important roads such as the Khyber Pass, and apprehending criminals. After partition in 1947, Pakistan continued this system of local autonomy and special favors. FIGURE 6.2 Pakistan’s Tribal Agencies Courtesy of RAND Corporation Pakistan’s founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, laid the foundation for this independence in remarks to a tribal jirga in Peshawar in 1948: “Keeping in view your loyalty, help, assurance and declarations we ordered, as you know, the withdrawal of troops from Waziristan as a concrete and definite gesture on our part…. Pakistan has no desire to unduly interfere with your internal freedom.”52 The system of administration remained fairly consistent after Pakistan’s independence, despite demands by the educated and enlightened sections of the tribal population, and Pakistani courts and police had no jurisdiction in the tribal areas.


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Future Shock by Alvin Toffler

Albert Einstein, Brownian motion, Buckminster Fuller, Charles Lindbergh, cognitive dissonance, Colonization of Mars, corporate governance, East Village, global village, Haight Ashbury, information retrieval, invention of agriculture, invention of movable type, invention of writing, longitudinal study, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, Menlo Park, New Urbanism, Norman Mailer, post-industrial society, RAND corporation, social intelligence, the market place, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, urban renewal, Whole Earth Catalog, zero-sum game

If you can define a task and a human can do it, then a machine can, at least in theory, also do it. The converse, however, is not true." Intelligence and creativity, it would appear, are not a human monopoly. Despite setbacks and difficulties, the roboteers are moving forward. Recently they enjoyed a collective laugh at the expense of one of the leading critics of the robot-builders, a former RAND Corporation computer specialist named Hubert L. Dreyfus. Arguing that computers would never be able to match human intelligence, Dreyfus wrote a lengthy paper heaping vitriolic scorn on those who disagreed with him. Among other things, he declared, "No chess program can play even amateur chess." In context, he appeared to be saying that none ever would. Less than two years later, a graduate student at MIT, Richard Greenblatt, wrote a chess-playing computer program, challenged Dreyfus to a match, and had the immense satisfaction of watching the computer annihilate Dreyfus to the cheers of the "artificial intelligence" researchers.

The possibility of enhancing human (and machine) intelligence by linking them together organically opens enormous and exciting probabilities, so exciting that Dr. R. M. Page, director of the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, has publicly discussed the feasibility of a system in which human thoughts are fed automatically into the storage unit of a computer to form the basis for machine decisionmaking. Participants in a RAND Corporation study conducted several years ago were asked when this development might occur. Answers ranged from as soon as 1990 to "never." But the median date given was 2020—well within the lifetime of today's teen-agers. In the meantime, research from countless sources contributes toward the eventual symbiosis. In one of the most fascinating, frightening and intellectually provocative experiments ever recorded, Professor Robert White, director of neurosurgery at the Metropolitan General Hospital in Cleveland, has given evidence that the brain can be isolated from its body and kept alive after the "death" of the rest of the organism.

We have noted, for example, that the basic organization of the present school system parallels that of the factory. For generations, we have simply assumed that the proper place for education to occur is in a school. Yet if the new education is to simulate the society of tomorrow, should it take place in school at all? As levels of education rise, more and more parents are intellectually equipped to assume some responsibilities now delegated to the schools. Near Santa Monica, California, where the RAND Corporation has its headquarters, in the research belt around Cambridge, Massachusetts, or in such science cities as Oak Ridge, Los Alamos or Huntsville, many parents are clearly more capable of teaching certain subjects to their children than are the teachers in the local schools. With the move toward knowledge-based industry and the increase of leisure, we can anticipate a small but significant tendency for highly educated parents to pull their children at least partway out of the public education system, offering them home instruction instead.


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Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions by Brian Christian, Tom Griffiths

4chan, Ada Lovelace, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anthropic principle, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, Bayesian statistics, Berlin Wall, Bill Duvall, bitcoin, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, constrained optimization, cosmological principle, cryptocurrency, Danny Hillis, David Heinemeier Hansson, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, diversification, Donald Knuth, double helix, Elon Musk, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, Firefox, first-price auction, Flash crash, Frederick Winslow Taylor, George Akerlof, global supply chain, Google Chrome, Henri Poincaré, information retrieval, Internet Archive, Jeff Bezos, Johannes Kepler, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, knapsack problem, Lao Tzu, Leonard Kleinrock, linear programming, martingale, Nash equilibrium, natural language processing, NP-complete, P = NP, packet switching, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prediction markets, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Robert X Cringely, Sam Altman, sealed-bid auction, second-price auction, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, sorting algorithm, spectrum auction, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, stochastic process, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Malthus, traveling salesman, Turing machine, urban planning, Vickrey auction, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, Y Combinator, zero-sum game

“the prisoner’s dilemma”: The prisoner’s dilemma was first conceived by Merrill Flood (of secretary problem and traveling salesman problem fame) and Melvin Drescher at RAND Corporation. In January 1950, they staged a game between UCLA’s Armen Alchian and RAND’s John D. Williams that had prisoner’s dilemma–like payoffs (Flood, “Some Experimental Games”). Princeton’s Albert Tucker was intrigued by this experiment, and in preparing to discuss it that May in a lecture at Stanford, he gave the problem its now famous prison formulation and its name. A detailed history of the origins of game theory and its development in the work of the RAND Corporation can be found in Poundstone, Prisoner’s Dilemma. a price of anarchy that’s a mere 4/3: Roughgarden and Tardos, “How Bad Is Selfish Routing?” Roughgarden’s 2002 Cornell PhD also addresses the topic of selfish routing.

More significantly, Win-Stay, Lose-Shift doesn’t have any notion of the interval over which you are optimizing. If your favorite restaurant disappointed you the last time you ate there, that algorithm always says you should go to another place—even if it’s your last night in town. Still, Robbins’s initial work on the multi-armed bandit problem kicked off a substantial literature, and researchers made significant progress over the next few years. Richard Bellman, a mathematician at the RAND Corporation, found an exact solution to the problem for cases where we know in advance exactly how many options and opportunities we’ll have in total. As with the full-information secretary problem, Bellman’s trick was essentially to work backward, starting by imagining the final pull and considering which slot machine to choose given all the possible outcomes of the previous decisions. Having figured that out, you’d then turn to the second-to-last opportunity, then the previous one, and the one before that, all the way back to the start.

A century later, Gantt charts still adorn the walls and screens of project managers at firms like Amazon, IKEA, and SpaceX. Taylor and Gantt made scheduling an object of study, and they gave it visual and conceptual form. But they didn’t solve the fundamental problem of determining which schedules were best. The first hint that this problem even could be solved wouldn’t appear until several decades later, in a 1954 paper published by RAND Corporation mathematician Selmer Johnson. The scenario Johnson examined was bookbinding, where each book needs to be printed on one machine and then bound on another. But the most common instance of this two-machine setup is much closer to home: the laundry. When you wash your clothes, they have to pass through the washer and the dryer in sequence, and different loads will take different amounts of time in each.


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Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought by Andrew W. Lo

"Robert Solow", Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, algorithmic trading, Andrei Shleifer, Arthur Eddington, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, asset-backed security, backtesting, bank run, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Bonfire of the Vanities, bonus culture, break the buck, Brownian motion, business cycle, business process, butterfly effect, buy and hold, capital asset pricing model, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Carmen Reinhart, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computerized trading, corporate governance, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Diane Coyle, diversification, diversified portfolio, double helix, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Ernest Rutherford, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, Flash crash, Fractional reserve banking, framing effect, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, Henri Poincaré, high net worth, housing crisis, incomplete markets, index fund, interest rate derivative, invention of the telegraph, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Meriwether, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, martingale, merger arbitrage, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, money market fund, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, Nick Leeson, old-boy network, out of africa, p-value, paper trading, passive investing, Paul Lévy, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, predatory finance, prediction markets, price discovery process, profit maximization, profit motive, quantitative hedge fund, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, RAND corporation, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Sam Peltzman, Shai Danziger, short selling, sovereign wealth fund, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, statistical arbitrage, Steven Pinker, stochastic process, stocks for the long run, survivorship bias, Thales and the olive presses, The Great Moderation, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, too big to fail, transaction costs, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, ultimatum game, Upton Sinclair, US Airways Flight 1549, Walter Mischel, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game

But there are many others. 52 • Chapter 2 One of the first cracks in the orthodox view of market rationality comes from the high-stakes world of the Cold War. The RAND Corporation is a legendary—some would say notorious—think tank based in Santa Monica, California. RAND was founded in 1948 to maintain the close relationship between scientific research and military planning that had developed during the Second World War.7 As the nation’s leading technological research institute, RAND attracted “the best and the brightest” academics across a wide assortment of scientific fields (although the nearby California beaches didn’t hurt), and put them to work on the most pressing problems of the Cold War. RAND went out of its way to include economists in its scientific mix: in fact, twenty-two Nobel Prize winners in economics have worked at the RAND Corporation over the years. One of the bright young economists at RAND was an unusual man named Daniel Ellsberg.

As a Harvard fellow, Ellsberg gave a series of popular lectures at the Boston Public Library on political decision making in the uncertain conditions of the Cold War. Dramatically titled “The Art of Coercion,” and broadcast by WGBH radio, Ellsberg’s lectures cemented his reputation as a theorist and public intellectual in the making.8 Ellsberg’s mixture of the scholar and the soldier proved irresistible to the RAND Corporation, even though his publication history was thin and his doctorate unfinished. Ellsberg was hired by RAND in 1959, where he was soon immersed in the fine details of strategic nuclear war planning. In that hothouse environment, Ellsberg was a deft conversationalist who loved to kibitz in a seminar or over someone’s shoulder, but Ellsberg’s frustrated colleagues urged him to write up his results in academic style.

Almost a century ago, the economist Frank Knight introduced a useful distinction between risk and uncertainty into the economic lexicon: he called “risk” the kind of randomness that can be measured or quantified, and he called “uncertainty” the kind of randomness that can’t.10 The roulette wheel, blackjack, or the lottery are examples of Knightian risk; finding intelligent life outside our solar system, exploiting fusion as a new source of energy, or surviving a nuclear war with Russia are examples of Knightian uncertainty. (Ellsberg’s own distinction between risk and uncertainty may have led him to leak the Pentagon Papers from the top-secret safes of the RAND Corporation to the pages of the New York Times during the Vietnam War.) Knight redefined risk and uncertainty for entirely practical reasons: he wanted to explain why some entrepreneurs made tremendous fortunes in their businesses, while others barely made enough to survive from day to day. Knight’s answer was simple. For industries with Knightian risk, where the random element of the business could be measured, it would be measured, and the forces of competition would eventually drive excess profits down to zero as that particular business became commoditized.


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You Are Here: From the Compass to GPS, the History and Future of How We Find Ourselves by Hiawatha Bray

A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Albert Einstein, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, bitcoin, British Empire, call centre, Charles Lindbergh, crowdsourcing, Dava Sobel, digital map, don't be evil, Edmond Halley, Edward Snowden, Firefox, game design, Google Earth, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, Isaac Newton, job automation, John Harrison: Longitude, John Snow's cholera map, license plate recognition, lone genius, openstreetmap, polynesian navigation, popular electronics, RAND corporation, RFID, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Thales of Miletus, trade route, turn-by-turn navigation, uranium enrichment, urban planning, Zipcar

“The achievement of a satellite craft by the United States would inflame the imagination of mankind and would probably produce repercussions in the world comparable to the explosion of the atomic bomb.”25 Although the study focused on the scientific and technological challenges of creating such a satellite rather than its military applications, it briefly mentioned the use of satellites as surveillance platforms for measuring the accuracy of bombing raids and tracking weather conditions over enemy targets. In 1951 the now-independent think tank RAND Corporation went further, in a report arguing that it should be possible to build a satellite with a television camera that could soar over the Soviet Union, broadcasting images back to the United States. The quality of the images would not be terribly impressive. At best the TV technology of the time would be able to detect only objects two hundred feet or larger in size. However, the study concluded that such relatively crude images would still provide valuable intelligence.26 A more detailed report issued in 1954 concluded that the US Air Force could—and should—build a television recon satellite.

Meanwhile, the air force spy satellite program had been put on hold. The Soviets’ launch of Sputnik in October 1957 cured Eisenhower of his complacency. It also eased his concerns about international law. The Soviets had gone first; the way was clear. Within days of Sputnik’s launch, Eisenhower and Assistant Secretary of Defense Donald Quarles were talking about how to get some spy satellites aloft.28 By this time the RAND Corporation had soured on its plan to broadcast the images via television. They had concluded that the best equipment that could be squeezed onto a satellite would produce images too poor to be of any use. Yet there was another way—complex and technically demanding, but possible. The satellite could use a specialized type of film, capable of handling the temperature extremes and radiation found in space.

Worst of all, Corona images were days old by the time policy makers saw them. For example, in 1967 a Corona satellite caught images of Soviet troops massing on the border of Czechoslovakia. By the time the film had been returned to earth, developed, analyzed, and provided to the Johnson administration, the Russians had already invaded.31 What the United States needed was something like the RAND Corporation’s original vision—a satellite that captured images electronically and broadcast them directly to earth. It was not until 1976 that such a satellite could be created, thanks to a technical breakthrough that was destined to capture a Nobel Prize and to restructure an entire global industry. In 1969 a pair of scientists at Bell Labs, William Boyle and George Smith, were working on electronic memory devices for computers.


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Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq by Thomas E. Ricks

business process, clean water, cognitive dissonance, David Brooks, facts on the ground, failed state, friendly fire, Isaac Newton, lateral thinking, Naomi Klein, private military company, Project for a New American Century, RAND corporation, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War

But what do they [then] drag us into?" Wolfowitz's alleged "fantasy" Perhaps the low point for the Wolfowitz view was a biting article in Foreign Affairs magazine that appeared during winter 1998-99. Siding with Zinni, it mocked 24 FIASCO the idea of having Iraqi exiles seize territory, supported by U.S. airpower. Essentially, the three authors, each from a mainstream national security institution— the Rand Corporation, the National Defense University, and the Council on Foreign Relations—argued that only people who know nothing about military affairs could think that a small force of Iraqi rebels could topple Saddam easily. The article cited a few proponents of what it disparaged as the "Rollback Fantasy," but singled out Wolfowitz, quoting him disapprovingly, and then stated that he was wrong, and that, in fact, "for the United States to try moving from containment to rollback in Iraq would be a terrible mistake that could easily lead to thousands of unnecessary deaths."

"We said, 'Oh, shit,' did a mission analysis, and focused on humanitarian issues," such as minimizing the displacement of people, stockpiling food to stave off famine, and protecting the infrastructure of the oilfields,he said. The decision to place the Defense Department—whether at the Pentagon or at the Central Command headquarters—in charge of postwar Iraq may have doomed the American effort from the start. As a subsequent Rand Corporation study put it, "Overall, this approach worked poorly, because the Defense Depart- THE RUN-UP 79 ment lacked the experience, expertise, funding authority, local knowledge, and established contacts with other potential organizations needed to establish, staff, support and oversee a large multiagency civilian mission." It wasn't that there was no planning. To the contrary, there was a lot, with at least three groups inside the military and one at the State Department working on postwar issues and producing thousands of pages of documents.

THE SURPRISE 335 Popaditch also was on his way to a new life: He would receive the Silver Star for his actions, be medically retired from the Corps, and then enroll in college with the ambition of becoming a high school teacher. A two-front war As Fallujah ground on in early April 2004, and the fighting spread to nearby Ramadi, the broad middle of Iraq, from Mosul in the north to Baghdad to Najaf in the south-central area, began to spin out of control. On April 9, 2004, Bruce Hoffman, a Rand Corporation terrorism expert who had been consulting at the CPA, was leaving the country at the end of a four-week visit. "We had three incidents on the way to Baghdad's airport, and then heard a huge explosion while we were there—it was the attack on the convoy that got Thomas Hammill." Hammill was a truck driver taken captive in one of the worst incidents involving contractors of the entire war. A twenty-six-vehicle convoy bringing an emergency shipment of jet fuel from the big U.S. base at Balad to the Baghdad airport was ambushed five miles short of its destination.


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Red Plenty by Francis Spufford

affirmative action, anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, asset allocation, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, cognitive dissonance, computer age, double helix, Fellow of the Royal Society, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, Kitchen Debate, linear programming, market clearing, MITM: man-in-the-middle, New Journalism, oil shock, Philip Mirowski, plutocrats, Plutocrats, profit motive, RAND corporation, Simon Kuznets, the scientific method

For an accessible way in, see Alec Nove, Economic History of the USSR, and Paul R. Gregory and Robert C. Stuart, Russian and Soviet Economic Performance and Structure, 6th edn. (Reading MA: Addison-Wesley, 1998). For Western calculations during the Cold War, see Abram Bergson and Simon Kuznets, eds, Economic Trends in the Soviet Union (Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press, 1963); Janet G. Chapman, Real Wages in Soviet Russia Since 1928, RAND Corporation report R-371-PR (Santa Monica CA, October 1963); Franklyn D. Holzman, ed., Readings on the Soviet Economy (Chicago: Rand-McNally, 1962). As a useful retrospective, see Angus Maddison, ‘Measuring the Performance of a Communist Command Economy: An Assessment of the CIA Estimates for the USSR’, Review of Income and Wealth vol. 44 no. 3 (September 1998), pp. 307–23. For Soviet reassessments of the historic growth record during perestroika, see Tatyana Zaslavskaya, ‘The Novosibirsk Report’, English translation by Teresa Cherfas, Survey 1 (1984), pp. 88–108; Abel Aganbegyan, Challenge: The Economics of Perestroika, translated by Michael Barratt Brown (London: I.B.Tauris, 1988); and most pessimistic of all, G.I.Khanin’s calculations, as described in Mark Harrison, ‘Soviet economic growth since 1928: The alternative statistics of G.I.Khanin’, Europe–Asia Studies vol. 45 no. 1 (1993), pp. 141–67.

: see Graham, ‘A Cultural Analysis of the Russo-Soviet Anekdot’. 5 New cybernetics institutes and departments had sprung up: see Gerovitch, From Newspeak to Cyberspeak. 6 But Nemchinov himself was no longer in charge: for a sharp-tongued account of his sudden loss of standing, and the appointment of Academician Fedorenko to TSEMI instead, see Katsenelinboigen, Soviet Economic Thought and Political Power in the USSR. Trying to read the situation from California eight years later, Simon Kassel, Soviet Cybernetics Research: A Preliminary Study of Organisations and Personalities, RAND Corporation report R-909-ARPA (Santa Monica CA, December 1971), pp. 86–7, remarked that Fedorenko seemed to be ‘without observable experience in computer technology or automation’, and wondered whether this was why TSEMI ‘appears to have gradually changed from an economics laboratory, engaged in the realization of a preconceived theoretical system of ideas, into an operational support agency for the Gosplan’.

For an accessible way in, see Alec Nove, Economic History of the USSR, and Paul R. Gregory and Robert C. Stuart, Russian and Soviet Economic Performance and Structure, 6th edn. (Reading MA: Addison-Wesley, 1998). For Western calculations during the Cold War, see Abram Bergson and Simon Kuznets, eds, Economic Trends in the Soviet Union (Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press, 1963); Janet G. Chapman, Real Wages in Soviet Russia Since 1928, RAND Corporation report R-371-PR (Santa Monica CA, October 1963); Franklyn D. Holzman, ed., Readings on the Soviet Economy (Chicago: Rand-McNally, 1962). As a useful retrospective, see Angus Maddison, ‘Measuring the Performance of a Communist Command Economy: An Assessment of the CIA Estimates for the USSR’, Review of Income and Wealth vol. 44 no. 3 (September 1998), pp. 307–23. For Soviet reassessments of the historic growth record during perestroika, see Tatyana Zaslavskaya, ‘The Novosibirsk Report’, English translation by Teresa Cherfas, Survey 1 (1984), pp. 88–108; Abel Aganbegyan, Challenge: The Economics of Perestroika, translated by Michael Barratt Brown (London: I.B.Tauris, 1988); and most pessimistic of all, G.I.Khanin’s calculations, as described in Mark Harrison, ‘Soviet economic growth since 1928: The alternative statistics of G.I.Khanin’, Europe–Asia Studies vol. 45 no. 1 (1993), pp. 141–67.


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Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance by Noam Chomsky

anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, Doomsday Clock, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, invisible hand, liberation theology, long peace, market fundamentalism, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, uranium enrichment

China was particularly alarmed, Steinbruner and Lewis write, by a 1998 long-range planning document of the US Space Command outlining a new concept of “global engagement,” including “space-based strike capabilities” that would allow the US to attack any country and to “deny similar capability to any other countries,” another Clinton-era precursor to the National Security Strategy of September 2002. The UN Conference on Disarmament has been deadlocked since 1998 by China’s insistence on maintaining the use of space for peaceful means and Washington’s refusal to agree, alienating many allies and creating conditions for confrontation.8 A May 2003 Rand Corporation study concludes that “the potential for an accidental or unauthorized nuclear missile launch in Russia or the United States has grown over the past decade despite warmer U.S.-Russian relations.” Neglecting these risks “could produce possibly the greatest disaster in modern history, and possibly in world history,” said former senator Sam Nunn, cochairman of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which funded the report.

And they know as well as US military analysts that “flights by U.S. EP-3 planes near China,” such as the one shot down in early 2001, engendering a mini-crisis, “are not just for passive surveillance; the aircraft also collect information used to develop nuclear war plans.”25 China’s interpretation of BMD is shared by US strategic analysts, in virtually the same words: BMD “is not simply a shield but an enabler of U.S. action,” a Rand Corporation study observed. Others agree. BMD “will facilitate the more effective application of U.S. military power abroad,” Andrew Bacevich writes in the conservative National Interest: “by insulating the homeland from reprisal—albeit in a limited way—missile defense will underwrite the capacity and willingness of the United States to ‘shape’ the environment elsewhere.” He cites approvingly the conclusion of Lawrence Kaplan in the liberal New Republic that “missile defense isn’t really meant to protect America.

See also Michael Gordon and Steven Lee Myers, New York Times, 28 May 2000, and Glaser and Fetter, International Security 26, no. 1 (summer 2001). 7. David Sanger, New York Times, 2 September 2001. Sanger, New York Times, 5 September 2001. Jane Perlez, New York Times, 2 September 2001. Clinton, see William Broad, New York Times, 1 May 2000. 8. John Steinbruner and Jeffrey Lewis, Daedalus, fall 2002. 9. David Ruppe, Global Security Newswire, 22 May 2003. Rand Corporation, Beyond the Nuclear Shadow, May 2003. Paul Webster, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July–August 2003. 10. Judith Miller, New York Times, 20 January 2003. Nunn-Lugar initiative, see note 5. 11. Krepon, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January–February 2003. 12. Michael Gordon, Eric Schmitt, New York Times, 11 March 2002. William Arkin, Los Angeles Times, 26 January 2003. 13. Carl Hulse and James Dao, New York Times, 29 May 2003. 14.


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Earth Wars: The Battle for Global Resources by Geoff Hiscock

Admiral Zheng, Asian financial crisis, Bakken shale, Bernie Madoff, BRICs, butterfly effect, clean water, cleantech, corporate governance, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, energy security, energy transition, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, flex fuel, global rebalancing, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, Long Term Capital Management, Malacca Straits, Masdar, mass immigration, megacity, Menlo Park, Mohammed Bouazizi, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Panamax, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, trade route, uranium enrichment, urban decay, WikiLeaks, working-age population, Yom Kippur War

Central Asia: Border Disputes and Conflict Potential. Brussels: International Crisis Group, 4 April 2002. Chaze, Aaron. India: An Investor’s Guide to the Next Economic Superpower. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia), 2006, 321 pp. China and India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment. Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, 22 August 2011. Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle. Menlo Park, CA: U.S. Geological Service, 2008. Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences and Strategies for Deterrence. Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, October 2011. Corruption Perceptions Index 2011. Berlin: Transparency International, 26 October 2011. Cunningham, Fiona, and Rory Medcalf. The Dangers of Denial: Nuclear Weapons in China-India Relations. Sydney: Lowy Institute, 18 October 2011. Diamond, Jared.

Japan acknowledges that the Chinese drills are operating in Chinese waters, but says they might tap into a gas field that extends into the disputed territory, in which case Japan might have a claim on some of the gas. China has dismissed the Japanese position, in much the same way as it refuses to acknowledge various territorial claims further south in the oil-rich South China Sea by Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, and Taiwan. These waters, it constantly reminds its neighbours, always have been and always will be Chinese. A recent study prepared for the U.S. Army by the RAND Corporation on possible regional conflicts involving China found that “an ongoing territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and overlapping claims to exclusive economic zones in the East China Sea are persistent irritants to the (China-Japan) relationship. Conflict could arise from an at-sea incident in the East China Sea, or from the escalation of a war of words amplified by some sort of maritime encounter.”3 Just such an incident happened in September 2010, when Japanese authorities arrested the captain of a Chinese fishing trawler after his vessel rammed a Japanese coastguard ship near the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

The process, where a photocatalyst is driven by sunlight to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, is viewed as a promising medium to long-range renewable energy alternative.11 Notes 1. Japanese Ministry of Defense, 2011 White Paper, Tokyo, 2 August 2011. 2. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ma Zhaoxu, Beijing, 3 August 2011, reacting to Japan’s Defense White Paper. 3. James Dobbins, David Gompert, David Shlapak, Andrew Scobell, Occasional Paper, Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence, (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation), October 2011. 4. Ross Garnaut, Australia and the Northeast Asian Ascendancy (Canberra: Australian Government Publishing Service, 1989), p. 36. 5. Ibid., p. 13. 6. Ibid., p. 36. 7. HSBC, “The World in 2050,” Hong Kong, January 2011. 8. Goldman Sachs, “BRICs and Beyond,” 23 November 2007. 9. Remarks at Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s press conference, 2 September 2011. 10. Son, Masayoshi, “Tsunami Clears Way for Solar-Powered Japan,” Asia Times, 23 September 2011. 11.


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The Cultural Logic of Computation by David Golumbia

Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, American ideology, Benoit Mandelbrot, borderless world, business process, cellular automata, citizen journalism, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, corporate governance, creative destruction, en.wikipedia.org, finite state, future of work, Google Earth, Howard Zinn, IBM and the Holocaust, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, jimmy wales, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, late capitalism, means of production, natural language processing, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Stallman, semantic web, Shoshana Zuboff, Slavoj Žižek, social web, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Stewart Brand, strong AI, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, Ted Nelson, telemarketer, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Turing machine, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, web application

A few scholars have begun to trace certain political movements within the English-speaking academy in the 1950s and early 1960s that point toward the existence of a directed search for a particular ideological view that would help to guide intellectual work toward a goal we have now come to recognize as neoliberalism, and that would condition in a profound manner the intellectual climate established in leading universities (see Amadae 2003; Edwards 1996; McCumber 2001; Reisch 2005). In a deliberate and also largely covert effort to resist the possibility of communist/Marxist encroachment on the U.S. conceptual establishment (which points at something far broader than institutional philosophy), individuals, government entities including the military and intelligence bodies (De Landa 1991), and private foundations like the RAND Corporation, promoted values like objectivity and rationalism over against subjectivity, collectivity, and shared social responsibility. Dovetailing precisely with the emerging availability of computing machinery in universities and with the waning productivity of the first wave of computing theorists (Turing, von Neumann, Shannon, et. al.), Chomsky offered the academy at least two attractive sets of theses that, while framed in terms of a profoundly new way of understanding the world, in fact harkened back to some of the most deeply entrenched views in the Western intellectual apparatus.

In addition to being perhaps the chief exponent of rationalism in the Western philosophical tradition, Hobbes is “generally recognized to be the classic exponent [of] the doctrine of sovereignty,” according to which “the rights of sovereignty are assigned to the supreme power on the basis . . . of natural law”; “plenitude [of power] belongs to the ruling authority as of right” (191). This doctrine, as Strauss’s approving invocation of Hobbes shows, has played a curious and in some ways determinative role in 20th-century political and intellectual practice. In several recent books (esp. Amadae 2003, Edwards 1996, and McCumber 2001) researchers have shown the deliberate creation of rationalist doctrines in the mid-20th century by U.S. think tanks, particularly the RAND corporation, such that this thought appears to be the spontaneous work of university academics but actually forms part of a coordinated plan to shape U.S. democratic practice. Of course, using rationalism as a basis for democracy makes a great deal of sense on the surface; but the deeper connections between the concept of natural right and the need for an absolute sovereign must be played down to make the theory palatable.

It is thus no accident that proponents of rationalism are often proponents of technological progressivism, perhaps most classically in computer history in the figure of Leibniz himself, who continually worked to build machines that would in some way or another perform the actions of thought for human beings. Amadae (2003) points to the concomitant emphasis on rationality and technology in the rational choice theorists, not least as expressed in the writings of the RAND corporation, historically a major proponent of both in contemporary U.S. thought. As Amadae puts it, “the mathematical formalism structuring rational choice theory is impelled by the same academy-wide momentum propelling an increased emphasis on formal models as an indication of scientific standing” (158), also pointing to the influence of one of the founders of modern computing, John von Neumann, on rational choice doctrine (via his writings on game theory, von Neumann and Morgenstern 1944).


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The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity by Amy Webb

Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Airbnb, airport security, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, Bayesian statistics, Bernie Sanders, bioinformatics, blockchain, Bretton Woods, business intelligence, Cass Sunstein, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive bias, complexity theory, computer vision, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Deng Xiaoping, distributed ledger, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Filter Bubble, Flynn Effect, gig economy, Google Glasses, Grace Hopper, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Inbox Zero, Internet of things, Jacques de Vaucanson, Jeff Bezos, Joan Didion, job automation, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, natural language processing, New Urbanism, one-China policy, optical character recognition, packet switching, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rodney Brooks, Rubik’s Cube, Sand Hill Road, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, SETI@home, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Skype, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, strong AI, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, Turing machine, Turing test, uber lyft, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero day

Department of Mathematics MIT Cambridge, MA Rosenblith, Walter R.L.E., MIT Cambridge, MA Rothstein, Jerome 21 East Bergen Place Red Bank, NJ Sayre, David IBM Corporation 590 Madison Avenue New York, NY Schorr-Kon, J. J. C-380 Lincoln Laboratory, MIT Lexington, MA Shapley, L. Rand Corporation 1700 Main Street Santa Monica, CA Schutzenberger, M. P. R.L.E., MIT Cambridge, MA Selfridge, O. G. Lincoln Laboratory, MIT Lexington, MA Shannon, C. E. R.L.E., MIT Cambridge, MA Shapiro, Norman Rand Corporation 1700 Main Street Santa Monica, CA Simon, Herbert A. Department of Industrial Administration Carnegie Institute of Technology Pittsburgh, PA Solomonoff, Raymond J. Technical Research Group 17 Union Square West New York, NY Steele, J. E., Capt. USAF Area B., Box 8698 Wright-Patterson AFB Ohio Webster, Frederick 62 Coolidge Avenue Cambridge, MA Moore, E.

That second half, more formally, is called “scenario planning” and develops scenarios about the future using a wide variety of data across numerous sources: statistics, patent filings, academic and archival research, policy briefings, conference papers, structured interviews with lots of people, and even critical design and speculative fiction. Scenario planning originated at the start of the Cold War, in the 1950s. Herman Kahn, a futurist at the RAND Corporation, was given the job of researching nuclear warfare, and he knew that raw data alone wouldn’t provide enough context for military leaders. So instead, he created something new, which he called “scenarios.” They would fill in the descriptive detail and narration needed to help those in charge of creating military strategy understand the plausible outcomes—that is, what could happen if a certain set of actions were taken.

“Deep Learning with Differential Privacy.” In Proceedings of the 2016 ACM SIGSAC Conference on Computer and Communications Security (CCS 2016), 308–318. New York: ACM Press, 2016. Abstract, last revised October 24, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1607.00133. Ablon, L., and A. Bogart. Zero Days, Thousands of Nights: The Life and Times of Zero-Day Vulnerabilities and Their Exploits. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1751.html. Adams, S. S., et al. “Mapping the Landscape of Human-Level Artificial General Intelligence.” AI Magazine 33, no. 1 (2012). Agar, N. “Ray Kurzweil and Uploading: Just Say No!” Journal of Evolution and Technology 22 no. 1 (November 2011): 23–26. https://jetpress.org/v22/agar.htm. Allen, C., I. Smit, and W. Wallach. “Artificial Morality: Top-Down, Bottom-Up, and Hybrid Approaches.”


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The Rise of the Quants: Marschak, Sharpe, Black, Scholes and Merton by Colin Read

"Robert Solow", Albert Einstein, Bayesian statistics, Black-Scholes formula, Bretton Woods, Brownian motion, business cycle, capital asset pricing model, collateralized debt obligation, correlation coefficient, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, discovery of penicillin, discrete time, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, financial innovation, fixed income, floating exchange rates, full employment, Henri Poincaré, implied volatility, index fund, Isaac Newton, John Meriwether, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Long Term Capital Management, Louis Bachelier, margin call, market clearing, martingale, means of production, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, Paul Samuelson, price stability, principal–agent problem, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, RAND corporation, random walk, risk tolerance, risk/return, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Sharpe ratio, short selling, stochastic process, Thales and the olive presses, Thales of Miletus, The Chicago School, the scientific method, too big to fail, transaction costs, tulip mania, Works Progress Administration, yield curve

Sharpe began to ponder the broader implications of Markowitz’s big idea regarding the optimal risk–reward trade-off in the new Modern Portfolio Theory. With a Master’s degree in economics in hand, Sharpe took a job with the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, California, just a few minutes’ drive from UCLA. This job opportunity permitted him to become immersed in an intellectually stimulating environment while he also pursued a PhD at UCLA under the continued mentorship of Professor Alchian. It also allowed him to cross paths with Harry Markowitz himself. The RAND Corporation While at RAND, Sharpe had the opportunity to rub shoulders with some of the greatest minds ever assembled to address the sciences, mathematics, and social sciences demanded in the Cold War-immersed USA. The Early Years 47 RAND’s mission was “to further and promote scientific, educational, and charitable purposes, all for the public welfare and security of the United States of America.”1 Even today, it remains a think tank devoted to research and development that helps to secure the leadership of the USA in security-related studies.

Markowitz’s model is most profound if we accept the assumptions that a security can be priced based on its mean historic return and its Expected return Capital allocation line Efficient portfolio frontier Risk-free return Risk Figure 10.1 The capital allocation line 64 The Rise of the Quants Expected return High risk tolerance Capital allocation line Efficient portfolio frontier Low risk tolerance Risk-free return Risk Figure 10.2 Various choices of risk and return along the capital allocation line variance or standard deviation. However, it also acted as a springboard to an equally elegant interpretation from one of Markowitz’s associates, William Forsyth Sharpe. The Sharpe insight By the time William Forsyth Sharpe introduced himself to Markowitz in 1960 at the RAND Corporation, at the behest of a mentor, Fred Weston at UCLA, Modern Portfolio Theory was still a relatively theoretical insight. Computational challenges prevented a powerful theoretical tool from making the leap from academia into practice. Serendipity was repeated when, following a chance meeting in the waiting room of Jacob Marschak a decade earlier that gave rise to Modern Portfolio Theory, the speculative knock on the office door of Markowitz changed Sharpe’s academic fortunes and would establish a new theory as the foundational tool of securities pricing.


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The death and life of the great American school system: how testing and choice are undermining education by Diane Ravitch

David Brooks, desegregation, hiring and firing, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, longitudinal study, mega-rich, Menlo Park, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, school choice, school vouchers, The Death and Life of Great American Cities

The founder of the organization, a former insurance company executive, allegedly collected $100 million from the state to finance his statewide chain of charter schools.29 Pennsylvania passed a charter law in 1997. Ten years later, there were 127 charter schools, nearly half in Philadelphia. The city adopted what is known as the “diverse provider model,” in which district schools compete with charter schools and privately managed schools (operating under contract to the district and not entirely free of districtwide mandates). Researchers from the RAND Corporation noted that achievement had improved in Philadelphia, but “with so many different interventions under way simultaneously in Philadelphia, there is no way to determine exactly which components of the reform plan are responsible for the improvement.” The RAND team concluded in 2008 that students in charter schools made gains that were statistically indistinguishable from the gains they experienced while attending traditional public schools.

: U.S. Department of Education, 2007), 50, 58. 29 Sam Dillon, “Collapse of 60 Charter Schools Leaves Californians Scrambling,” New York Times, September 17, 2004. 30 Kristen A. Graham, “SRC Told Firms Need New Role,” Philadelphia Inquirer, June 11, 2009; Brian Gill et al., State Takeover, School Restructuring, Private Management, and Student Achievement in Philadelphia (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2007), 39-41; Ron Zimmer et al., “Evaluating the Performance of Philadelphia’s Charter Schools,” Working Paper, RAND Education, Mathematica Policy Research, and Research for Action, 2008, iii. See also Kristen A. Graham, “Study: District-Run Phila. Schools Top Manager-Run Ones,” Philadelphia Inquirer, April 9, 2009. 31 Martha Woodall, “Charter Schools’ Problems Surfacing,” Philadelphia Inquirer, December 29, 2008; Dan Hardy, “Charter School Appeals to Block Release of Records,” Philadelphia Inquirer, June 11, 2009. 32 Buckley and Schneider, Charter Schools: Hope or Hype?

Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2006), iii-v. 42 Christopher Lubienski and Sarah Theule Lubienski, Charter, Private, Public Schools and Academic Achievement: New Evidence from NAEP Mathematics Data (New York: National Center for the Study of Privatization in Education, Teachers College, Columbia University, 2006), 2-5, 40. See also Ron Zimmer et al., Charter Schools in Eight States: Effects on Achievement, Attainment, Integration, and Competition (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2009). 43 Erik W. Robelen, “NAEP Gap Continuing for Charters: Sector’s Scores Lag in Three Out of Four Main Categories,” Education Week, May 21, 2008, 1, 14. 44 Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Thomas Kane, et al., Informing the Debate: Comparing Boston’s Charter, Pilot and Traditional Schools (Boston: The Boston Foundation, 2009), 39; Boston Globe, “Top-Scoring Schools on the 10th Grade MCAS,” 2008, www.boston.com/news/special/education/mcas/scores08/10th_top_schools.htm; Jennifer Jennings, “The Boston Pilot/Charter School Study: Some Good News, and Some Cautions,” Eduwonkette blog, January 7, 2009, http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/eduwonkette/2009/01/the_boston_pilotcharter_school.html. 45 Vaznis, “Charter Schools Lag in Serving the Neediest.” 46 Center for Research on Education Outcomes (CREDO), Multiple Choice: Charter School Performance in 16 States (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, 2009); Lesli A.


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What the Dormouse Said: How the Sixties Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry by John Markoff

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Apple II, back-to-the-land, beat the dealer, Bill Duvall, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Buckminster Fuller, California gold rush, card file, computer age, computer vision, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, different worldview, Donald Knuth, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, Edward Thorp, El Camino Real, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, general-purpose programming language, Golden Gate Park, Hacker Ethic, hypertext link, informal economy, information retrieval, invention of the printing press, Jeff Rulifson, John Markoff, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Mahatma Gandhi, Menlo Park, Mother of all demos, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, Paul Terrell, popular electronics, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, Robert X Cringely, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South of Market, San Francisco, speech recognition, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, The Hackers Conference, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, union organizing, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, William Shockley: the traitorous eight

The goal of the study was to discover which device would allow a user to get to a given point on the screen most quickly as well as repeatedly with the fewest errors. English was anxiously looking for a project to get into, and so Engelbart told him to begin organizing pointer experiments. Other kinds of pointing devices were already in use, including light pens, trackballs, and tablets with styli. The RAND Corporation had invented the latter, and though Engelbart hoped for a while that he could persuade them to lend him one for their research, the company told him it didn’t have any available. The actual idea of a rolling, handheld pointing device came to Engelbart one day when he was at a computer-graphics conference. As he often did, he was feeling like an outsider, because everyone was talking, and he was uncomfortable and having trouble making himself heard.

Instead, computers had become fast enough so that by slicing the computer’s programming resources into tiny time slots and allocating them to different users, each user would have the illusion that he had a single large computer all to himself. Since computers did things at lightning speed, and since in the days before graphical displays most user interaction with the machine consisted of merely entering text and data at a keyboard, the vast majority of the computer’s time was being wasted while it waited for user input. To be sure, there had been an earlier time-sharing machine invented at the RAND Corporation known as JOSS, but it consisted of lights on top of terminals—the computer’s time was allocated to the terminal whose light was switched on at the moment! In the late 1950s, however, McCarthy’s notion was prescient and similar to Doug Engelbart’s vision for the Augmentation machine. However, they remained fundamentally different concepts. At the deepest level, the question was whether humans would remain in the loop.

They decided that, according to Moore’s Law, it wouldn’t be possible until the late seventies or early eighties—an impossibly long time into the future. During his travels, Kay also visited the nation’s best computer-science research centers. He spent time in Menlo Park with the Augment Group, where Bill English took him under his wing and introduced him to many of Engelbart’s best young researchers. He traveled to MIT, where he visited with Papert. He traveled to the RAND Corporation and learned about a system called GRAIL that made it possible for a computer to respond directly to human gestures. He was already familiar with the ARPAnet ideas that would ultimately lead to today’s Internet. Moreover, in Hawaii, ARPA-funded experimenters were playing with the idea of creating wireless networks, and so it made sense that his notebook-sized Flex machine would have a wireless connection to the outside world as well.


Smart Mobs: The Next Social Revolution by Howard Rheingold

A Pattern Language, augmented reality, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, business climate, citizen journalism, computer vision, conceptual framework, creative destruction, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, experimental economics, experimental subject, Extropian, Hacker Ethic, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, Howard Rheingold, invention of the telephone, inventory management, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Metcalfe's law, Metcalfe’s law, more computing power than Apollo, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, pez dispenser, planetary scale, pre–internet, prisoner's dilemma, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, Renaissance Technologies, RFID, Richard Stallman, Robert Metcalfe, Robert X Cringely, Ronald Coase, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, skunkworks, slashdot, social intelligence, spectrum auction, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, the scientific method, transaction costs, ultimatum game, urban planning, web of trust, Whole Earth Review, zero-sum game

These are the kind of rules that don’t fit real life with predictive precision, but that do attract economists, because they map onto the behavior of observable phenomena like markets, arms races, cartels, and traffic. After World War II, von Neumann joined other mathematicians and economists to brainstorm game theory at a mundane building that still houses the same institution near the Santa Monica beach. The RAND Corporation was the first think tank, where intellectuals with security clearances thought about the unthinkable, as RANDite Herman Kahn referred to the craft of thermonuclear war strategy.31 Because the arms race seemed to be closely related to the kind of bluff and counter-bluff described by game theory, the new field became popular among the first nuclear war strategists. In 1950, RAND researchers came up with four fundamental elements of Morgenstern- and von Neumann-style games: Chicken, Stag Hunt, Deadlock, and Prisoner’s Dilemma.

In addition to the organizers’ all-points network, protest communications were leavened with individual protesters using cell phones, direct transmissions from roving independent media feeding directly onto the Internet, personal computers with wireless modems broadcasting live video, and a variety of other networked communications. Floating above the tear gas was a pulsing infosphere of enormous bandwidth, reaching around the planet via the Internet.18 From Seattle to Manila, the first “netwars” have already broken out. The term “netwar” was coined by John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, two analysts for the RAND corporation (birthplace of game theory and experimental economics), who noticed that the same combination of social networks, sophisticated communication technologies, and decentralized organizational structure was surfacing as an effective force in very different kinds of political conflict: Netwar is an emerging mode of conflict in which the protagonists—ranging from terrorist and criminal organizations on the dark side, to militant social activists on the bright side—use network forms of organization, doctrine, strategy, and technology attuned to the information age.

William Poundstone, Prisoner’s Dilemma: John von Neumann, Game Theory, and the Puzzle of the Bomb (New York: Doubleday, 1992). 30. J. Bronowski, The Ascent of Man (Toronto: Little, Brown, 1973). 31. Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1960). 32. Jean-Jacques Rousseau, ADiscourse on Inequality (London: Penguin, 1984). 33. Merrill M. Flood, “Some Experimental Games,” Research Memorandum RM789 (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1952). 34. A. W. Tucker, “On Jargon: The Prisoner’s Dilemma,” UMAP Journal 1 (1950): 101. 35. Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation (New York: Basic Books, 1985). 36. Ibid., 12. 37. Ibid., 31. 38. Ibid., viiiix. 39. Ibid., 21. 40. R. L. Trivers, “The Evolution of Reciprocal Altruism,” Quarterly Review of Biology 46 (1971): 3537. 41. Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation. 42.


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The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force Us to Choose Between Privacy and Freedom? by David Brin

affirmative action, airport security, Ayatollah Khomeini, clean water, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, data acquisition, death of newspapers, Extropian, Howard Rheingold, illegal immigration, informal economy, information asymmetry, Iridium satellite, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, mutually assured destruction, offshore financial centre, open economy, packet switching, pattern recognition, pirate software, placebo effect, plutocrats, Plutocrats, prediction markets, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Robert Bork, Saturday Night Live, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, telepresence, trade route, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game, Zimmermann PGP

DARPA had an ulterior motive in developing this valuable research tool. A motive that would fundamentally affect all the networks that followed, and perhaps alter society forever. Ironically, this fantastic device for peaceful rambunctiousness arose out of bloody-minded contemplations, then called “thinking about the unthinkable.” Pondering what to do during and after a nuclear war. Back in 1964, Pentagon officials asked the Rand Corporation to imagine a transcontinental communication system that might stand a chance of surviving even an atomic cataclysm. Since every major telephone, telegraph, and radio junction would surely be targeted, generals were desperate for some way to coordinate with government, industry, and troops in the field, even after a first strike against U.S. territory. Rand researcher Paul Baran found that such a survivable system was theoretically possible.

Each era seems to have its own fads regarding how best to do forecasts. In the 1960s and 1970s there was passionate interest in “Delphi polling,” which involved asking a large number of knowledgable people about the likelihood of certain future events. The average of their opinions was thought for a while to have some unbiased validity, when in fact it simply reflected the notions that were most fashionable at the time. In one infamous example, the renowned Rand Corporation released a set of predictions that included reliable long-range weather forecasting and mind control by 1975; manipulation of weather, controlled fusion, and electronic organs for humans by 1985; and sea floor mines, gene correction, and intelligent robots by 1990. Modern institutions of government and private capital are deeply concerned over the murkiness of their projections. Each summer many hold workshops, encouraging top-level managers to consult with experts, futurists, and even science fiction authors in pondering the long view.

Recognize that doing all these things properly will involve letting go of hierarchical power, without necessarily giving up the advantages of a clearly defined modern state. This is hard to do, but the neo-West already has a myriad precedents, as well as an educated population that is more than willing to turn the devolution of skill and authority into a national resource. This final theme arises in a recent book about netwar and cyberwar, edited by Rand Corporation researchers John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt: In Athenaʼs Camp: Preparing for Conflict in the Information Age, a collection of papers that explores many of the new and perilous types of confrontation that we touched upon briefly here. Most of the contributing authors appear to agree on one conclusion: the information revolution favors and strengthens networked forms of organization, while making life difficult for hierarchical forms.


pages: 667 words: 149,811

Economic Dignity by Gene Sperling

active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Cass Sunstein, collective bargaining, corporate governance, David Brooks, desegregation, Detroit bankruptcy, Donald Trump, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Elon Musk, employer provided health coverage, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, full employment, gender pay gap, ghettoisation, gig economy, Gini coefficient, guest worker program, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, income inequality, invisible hand, job automation, job satisfaction, labor-force participation, late fees, liberal world order, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum wage unemployment, obamacare, offshore financial centre, payday loans, price discrimination, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, speech recognition, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Toyota Production System, traffic fines, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, War on Poverty, working poor, young professional, zero-sum game

“About half (51 percent) of employed Americans say they get a sense of identity from their job, while the other half (47 percent) say their job is just what they do for a living.”12 Education mattered in this study: 77 percent of workers with a postgraduate degree and 60 percent of those with a college degree say their job gives them a sense of identity, while only 38 percent of those who have a high school diploma or less say the same.13 The type of employment also matters. Over 60 percent of those in government jobs, self-employment, or nonprofit work report deriving identity from work, compared with 42 percent in the private sector.14 The RAND Corporation found somewhat more positive outcomes than other studies. It asked Americans ages twenty-one to seventy-five if their work provides them with the “satisfaction of work well done,” a “feeling of doing useful work,” a “sense of personal accomplishment,” the ability to “make positive impact on community/society,” “opportunities to fully use talents,” and “goals to aspire to.” About 80 percent of Americans say their job provides at least one of these qualities always or most of the time.

And it’s clear that we must address activity and learning gaps even when school is not in session. The “summer slide” or summer “enrichment gap” or “Harry Potter divide”84 shows that much of the gap between poor and wealthier students gets even worse in the summer, when students of more means are much more likely to participate in enriching activities including camps, learning programs, and even reading Harry Potter books. Trials by the Wallace Foundation and RAND Corporation found that low-income students who consistently attended free, voluntary five- or six-week summer programs received significant reading and math gains compared with students who applied for the programs but were not accepted.85 PAVING THE ROAD TO COLLEGE Many, like me, realize only later in life the gift we inherited at birth of a high—almost assumed—expectation of going to college, and a tremendous support system that served as a magnet to keep us on track.

“How Americans View Their Jobs,” Pew Research Center, October 6, 2016, https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/3-how-americans-view-their-jobs/. 13. “How Americans View Their Jobs.” 14. “How Americans View Their Jobs.” 15. Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen, David Powell, Till von Wachter, and Jeffrey B. Wenger, Working Conditions in the United States: Results of the 2015 American Working Conditions Survey (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2017), 46. 16. Michaelson et al., “Meaningful Work,” 80. 17. Catherine Bailey and Adrian Madden, “What Makes Work Meaningful—or Meaningless,” MIT Sloane Management Review (2016), accessed November 8, 2019, https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/what-makes-work-meaningful-or-meaningless/. 18. Amy Wrzesniewski and Jane E. Dutton, “Crafting a Job: Revisioning Employees as Active Crafters of Their Work,” Academy of Management Review 26, no. 2 (2001): 179, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/259118.pdf. 19.


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The Paradox of Choice: Why More Is Less by Barry Schwartz

accounting loophole / creative accounting, attribution theory, Atul Gawande, availability heuristic, Cass Sunstein, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, endowment effect, framing effect, hedonic treadmill, income per capita, job satisfaction, loss aversion, medical residency, mental accounting, Own Your Own Home, Pareto efficiency, positional goods, price anchoring, psychological pricing, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, science of happiness, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith

If you want to experience this problem for yourself, pick some prescription drug that is now being marketed directly to you, then do a web search to find out what you can about the drug that goes beyond what the ads tell you. I just tried it for Prilosec, one of the largest-selling prescription medications in existence, which is heavily advertised by its manufacturer. I got more than 20,000 hits! And there is good evidence that the absence of filters on the Internet can lead people astray. The RAND Corporation recently conducted an assessment of the quality of web sites providing medical information and found that “with rare exceptions, they’re all doing an equally poor job.” Important information was omitted, and sometimes the information presented was misleading or inaccurate. Moreover, surveys indicate that these web sites actually influence the health-related decisions of 70 percent of the people who consult them.

As advertising professor J. Twitchell, Lead Us into Temptation: The Triumph of American Materialism (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999). The quote is on p. 53. Yet several studies R.B. Zajonc, “Attitudinal Effects of Mere Exposure,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1968, 9 (part 2), 1–27. The Internet can On rating the raters one finds on the Internet, see the Nadel article. The RAND Corporation On the accuracy of medical web sites, see T. Pugh, “Low Marks for Medical Web Sites,” Philadelphia Inquirer, May 23, 2001, p. A3. For a thorough discussion of strategies for information seeking and decision making in the modern, information-laden world, see J.W. Payne, J.R. Bettman, and E.J. Johnson, The Adaptive Decision Maker (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993). Even if we can There are several very useful compendia of research on how we make decisions.

See surveys Porter, Roy positional competition positional goods positive liberty postdecision regret posters PPOs prescription drugs presumptions Prilosec Princeton University prison population product placement, in movies prospect theory comparisons and description of endowment effect and neutral point and sunk costs and psychological accounting public television, ads on Putnam, Robert Q Quarterlife Crisis R racial identification RAND Corporation Real Simple, reasoning, satisfaction and reference prices regret anticipated aversion of counterfactuals and effects of maximizing and mitigation of near misses and omission bias and postdecision Regret Scale responsibility and satisfaction and sunk costs and upside to see also trade-offs Regret (Landman) religion remembered utility responsibility, regret and restaurants retirement plans reversible decisions risk, risk assessment: loss and gain preferences and and most frequent causes of death prospect theory and see also decision-making risk aversion risk seeking romantic relationships, reasoning and routines rules, as means of eliminating choice “rules of the game,” S salience definition of omission bias and perception and satisfaction: misprediction of reasoning and regret and “three gap” assessment and see also happiness satisfaction treadmill Satisfaction with Life Scale satisficers definition of as maximizers maximizers compared with social comparison and trade-offs and scarcity Scitovsky, Tibor Seabrook, John second-order decisions security, primary importance of self-blame self-determination self-esteem, in comparison with others self-respect, freedom and Seligman, Martin Sen, Amartya shopping: comparison framing and reference prices and by maximizers by satisficers time vs. pleasure and Silent World of Doctor and Patient, The (Katz) Simon, Herbert simplicity Sipress, David sitcoms, decreasing length of Smaller, Barbara Smeloff, Edward A.


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Scrum: The Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the Time by Jeff Sutherland, Jj Sutherland

Baxter: Rethink Robotics, business cycle, call centre, clean water, death of newspapers, fundamental attribution error, knowledge worker, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, minimum viable product, pets.com, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, Shai Danziger, Silicon Valley, Tony Hsieh, Toyota Production System

Researchers point out, for example, that nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are often treated as forces for good even if they aren’t, that car companies will create one “halo” car to give a whole line a good impression, and that the Apple iPod gave all Apple’s products a veneer of coolness. As with the bandwagon effect, people who are focused on the “halo” don’t look at actual data—rather, they gravitate toward something that has a positive sheen to it. Again, this isn’t a failure of will; this is the nature of people. Fighting it head-on is silly—it’s like fighting gravity. But you can be clever about it. In the 1950s, the Rand Corporation was asked to answer some questions—the terrifying kind that got bandied about during the Cold War. Invoking in their terminology the Oracle of Delphi, the priestess who could predict the future, Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer published in 1963 a blandly titled paper, “An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts,” with the helpful reference “Memorandum RM-727/1-Abridged.”

If everyone is within two cards of each other (say a five, two eights, and a thirteen), the team just adds them all up and takes the average (in that case 6.6) and moves on to the next item. Remember, we’re talking estimates, not ironbound schedules. And estimates on small pieces of the project. If people are more than three cards apart, then the high and the low cards talk about why they think what they do. Then everyone does another round of Planning Poker. Otherwise they just average the estimates, which will approximate the numbers that the statisticians at the Rand Corporation came up with. Here’s an example: Let’s say you’re painting the interior of a house, and you need to estimate how long it will take to paint the living room, the kitchen, and two bedrooms. And you’re doing this with a team that you’ve painted rooms with before. So first the two bedrooms: everyone estimates those at a three. No real disagreement; you’ve all done this before and see bedrooms as fairly straightforward.

., 7.1 Omaha Beach OODA loop, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 8.1, 185, 8.2, 8.3 OpenView Venture Partners, 1.1, 3.1, 5.1, 8.1 Org Chart Orient, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 8.1, 185 output, as measurable standard Overburden Palm paper airplanes, PDCA cycle in making Pashler, Harold passivity, elimination of PatientKeeper, 7.1, 7.2 patterns: negative in Scrum PDCA cycle (Plan, Do, Check, Act), 2.1, 2.2, 5.1, 7.1 peer review “Perils of Obedience, The” (Milgram) Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) personal growth Petraeus, David Pets.com, 8.1 planning, 1.1, 6.1 Waterfall, see Waterfall method weddings, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 Planning Poker, 6.1, 6.2, 9.1 Porath, Christine Portal poverty, 9.1, 9.2, 9.3 prioritization, 1.1, 7.1, 7.2, 8.1 process, happiness in product attributes, 172 Product Backlog, see Backlog product development: incremental value in productivity happiness and hours worked and, 5.1, 103, 8.1 Scrum and Product Marketing Product Owner, 2.1, 8.1, 8.2, app.1, app.2 essential characteristics of feedback and, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4 incremental value and as internal customer product vision, 8.1, 172, 8.2 Backlog and profit margins Progress Out of Poverty Index projects, prioritizing between, 93 ProPublica, purpose, 2.1, 7.1 Putnam, Lawrence Quattro Pro for Windows Rand Corporation, 6.1, 6.2 rat race Reasonableness, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 relative size, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 releases, incremental, see incremental development and delivery renovations, time frame for Rethink Robotics retrospective revenue, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3 in venture capital review rituals re-work RF-4C Phantom reconnaisance jet rhythm, 5.1, 5.2 risk robots, 2.1, 4.1, 9.1 rockets Rodner, Don Rogers Commission Roomba Roosevelt, Theodore rugby as analogy New Zealand All Blacks team in Rustenburg, Eelco Said, Khaled Salesforce.com, 1.1, 3.1 Agile practices at sales teams Sanbonmatsu, David Schwaber, Ken Scrum Backlog as power of freedom and rules in and Heathcare.gov, 1.1 implementing in Japan, 2.1 managers’ difficulty with and Medco, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4 at NPR at OpenView origins at Easel, 2.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 origins in software development of positive behavior rewarded in productivity increases with reaching greatness with at Salesforce.com, 3.1 system examined and fixed in team size in time conceptualized in transparency in at Valve workweek and, 103 Scrum board, 7.1, 7.2, 8.1, 9.1, app.1 in education “SCRUM Development Process” (Sutherland and Schwaber) Scrum Master, 3.1, 4.1, 7.1, 8.1, 8.2, app.1, app.2, app.3 “Secret Weapon: High-value Target Teams as Organizational Innovation” (Lamb and Munsing) self-control, decision making and Senate Judiciary Committee set-based concurrent engineering Shook, John short cycles short term memory, retention in Shu Ha Ri, 2.1, 9.1 single-tasking sizing, relative, 6.1, 6.2 skills small teams, superiority of, 3.1, 3.2 SMART government Smithsonian Institution soccer social motivation software, fixing bugs in software development, 2.1, 3.1 Sony Soviet Union space travel, private specialization, communication damaged by, 4.1, 4.2 Special Operations Forces (SOF), U.S.


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The Inner Lives of Markets: How People Shape Them—And They Shape Us by Tim Sullivan

"Robert Solow", Airbnb, airport security, Al Roth, Alvin Roth, Andrei Shleifer, attribution theory, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Brownian motion, business cycle, buy and hold, centralized clearinghouse, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, clean water, conceptual framework, constrained optimization, continuous double auction, creative destruction, deferred acceptance, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, experimental subject, first-price auction, framing effect, frictionless, fundamental attribution error, George Akerlof, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Gunnar Myrdal, helicopter parent, information asymmetry, Internet of things, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, iterative process, Jean Tirole, Jeff Bezos, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, late fees, linear programming, Lyft, market clearing, market design, market friction, medical residency, multi-sided market, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Occupy movement, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, pets.com, pez dispenser, pre–internet, price mechanism, price stability, prisoner's dilemma, profit motive, proxy bid, RAND corporation, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, school choice, school vouchers, sealed-bid auction, second-price auction, second-price sealed-bid, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, Tacoma Narrows Bridge, technoutopianism, telemarketer, The Market for Lemons, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transaction costs, two-sided market, uber lyft, uranium enrichment, Vickrey auction, Vilfredo Pareto, winner-take-all economy

One, the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics, founded in Colorado Springs in 1932 by businessman and economist Alfred Cowles, aimed to link economic theory more closely to math and statistics in an effort to model the economy. Cowles was inspired by the Great Depression and driven by the desire to bring scientific rigor to the study of the economy. The foundation’s founding motto was “Science is Measurement.”11 The second, the RAND Corporation, first established as a joint project by the Douglas Aircraft Company and the US Department of War in 1945, used game theory to analyze the United States’s geopolitical position relative to the Soviet Union. Game theory—a mathematical approach to analyzing strategic choices—emerged from the work of Princeton mathematician John von Neumann in the 1930s, who collaborated with his economist colleague Oskar Morgenstern to write Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (published in 1944), which launched the field.

To grasp the basic idea behind the way students in Boston, Paris, and Shanghai are matched to schools, doctors get their residencies, and graduates of the Air Force Academy are assigned to postings, it’s easiest to go back to the middle-school gym to figure out a better way of assigning girls and boys to their first dance.2 Lloyd Shapley, Matchmaker In 1962, the mathematician Lloyd Shapley was working at the RAND Corporation (which, you may recall from Chapter 2, along with the Cowles Foundation, helped spur the post–World War II mathematization of economics). Shapley preferred to spend his time thinking about problems like matching girls and boys at the dance rather than the strategic intricacies of the Cold War. We’re fortunate that RAND gave him the freedom to do so. Shapley came from a family of scientists.

Woods store, 1–2 person’s life, value of, 166–167 philanthropic commitments, 72–75 Pillow Pets, 128–129 platforms babysitting, 121 Champagne fairs as, 126–128 competition, 124–126 credit card, 113–116 economics of, 107–112 greed in, 128–129 mobile market, 116 multisided, 14 rules for, 112–117 video game system, 116 See also economics Podolny, Joel, 39, 43 poker, bluffing in, 26 See also chess; Cold War Pontiff, Jeffrey, 11–12 posting system, 79–81, 100–101 POW camps, 7–13, 175–177 power law distributions, 22 practice, market, 14–15 Prendergast, Canice, 154–160 “Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality” (Milgrom and Roberts), 70–71 price discovery, 83 priceless, when something is, 132–133 prisoners’ dilemma game, 178–179 property, expected value of, 56 Radford, R. A., 7–10, 22–23 Ranau Japanese POW camp, 10–11 RAND Corporation, 25, 27, 134–136 reality-based economic modeling, 35–37, 49–51, 141 See also lemon markets theory recessions, 36, 48, 75 Roberts, John, 66, 70–71 Ross, Lee, 177–179 Roth, Al, 140, 141, 163–165 rush, fraternity/sorority, 140 Rutland, VT, 1 Rysman, Marc, 109 Samuelson, Paul, 28–29, 44 Samuelson, William, 55–57 San Fernando Valley gangs, 61–62 San Fers gang, 61–62 Sandakan camp, Borneo, 10–11 Sauget, IL, 168–169 scams internet, 52–55 money-back, 69–70 Scarf, Herbert, 163–164 school choice, in Sweden, 151–152 school to student matching, 138–139, 141–142, 143–149 Schultz, Theodore, 35 Schumpeter, Joseph, 24, 49–50 Scottish auctions, 82 Sears, 115–116 second-bid auction, 81–82 second-price sealed-bid auctions, 87–89 “Selection process starts with choices, ends with luck” (article), 146 self-destructive behaviors, signaling theory and, 67–68 selfish, markets making us, 177–179 seller misrepresentation, 52–55 sellers, knowing more than buyers, 41, 44–55 Seven Minute Abs, 172 Shakin’ Cat Midgets gang, 61 Shapley, Lloyd, 134–136, 137–138, 163–164 Shapley-Gale algorithm, 137–140 Shi, Peng, 148 Shleifer, Andrei, 180–181 shopping malls, as two-sided markets, 122–123 Shoup, Carl, 85 sick organizations, 142–143 signaling model applications of, 66–68 commitment signs, 62–66 competitive signaling, 69–71 integrity, 71–75 Silicon Valley, market friction and, 169–173 Skoll, Jeff, 39–40, 43, 51 Smith, Adam, 21 Snider, James, 42 social efficiency, auctions, 89 social well-being, assessing, 22 Solow, Robert, 35 Solow model, 35 Sönmez, Tayfun, 144 Sony’s Blu-ray format war, 125–126 sorority rush, 140 spectrum auction theory, 102–103 Spence, Michael, 62–66 Stack, Charles, 42–43 Stalag VII-A POW camp market, 5–6, 7–10, 13 stamp collecting, 82–84 Stiglitz, Joseph, 35–36, 76, 182 strategy proofness mechanism, 145 student to school matching, 138–139, 141–142, 143–149 Summers, Larry, 166–167 Super Bowl advertising, 70–71 supply and demand, 96 survival rates, of Japanese vs.


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How to Survive a Pandemic by Michael Greger, M.D., FACLM

coronavirus, COVID-19, Covid-19, double helix, friendly fire, global pandemic, global supply chain, global village, inventory management, Kickstarter, mass immigration, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Journalism, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, phenotype, profit motive, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, statistical model, stem cell, supply-chain management, the medium is the message, Westphalian system, Y2K, Yogi Berra

Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense. National Defense Research Institute, RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG135.pdf. 1031. Chalk P. 2004. Hitting America’s soft underbelly: the potential threat of deliberate biological attacks against the U.S. agricultural and food industry. Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense. National Defense Research Institute, RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG135.pdf. 1032. Chalk P. 2004. Hitting America’s soft underbelly: the potential threat of deliberate biological attacks against the U.S. agricultural and food industry. Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense. National Defense Research Institute, RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG135.pdf. 1033. Watts G. 2005.

Deputy Secretary of Agriculture, but also as a direct attack on our citizenry. In 2004, the RAND Corporation prepared a report on agroterrorism for the Office of the Secretary of Defense titled Hitting America’s Soft Underbelly. They blamed America’s vulnerability in part on the “concentrated and intensive nature of contemporary U.S. farming practices.”1027 According to the last USDA census, the top 1 percent of the nation’s feedlots produced about half of the cattle1028 and 1 percent of U.S. egg farms confine more than 90 percent of the nation’s egg-laying hens.1029 Given that “highly crowded” animals are reared in “extreme proximity” in the United States, one infected animal could quickly expose thousands of others.1030 The RAND corporation points out that individual animals raised by U.S. agriculture have become progressively more prone to disease as a result of increasingly routine invasive procedures: Herds that have been subjected to such modifications—which have included everything from sterilization programs to dehorning, branding, and hormone injections—have typically suffered higher stress levels that have lowered the animals’ natural tolerance to disease from contagious organisms and increased the viral and bacterial “volumes” that they normally shed in the event of an infection.1031 Long-distance live transport could then ferry the spreading infection, according to USDA models, to as many as twenty-five states within five days.1032 Curtailing the long-distance live transport of animals, as well as the concentration and intensification of the food animal industry, could thus potentially be a matter of national security.

Hitting America’s soft underbelly: the potential threat of deliberate biological attacks against the U.S. agricultural and food industry. Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense. National Defense Research Institute, RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG135.pdf. 1026. Ishmael W. 2003. A soft underbelly. Beef, July 1, p. 11. beef-mag.com/mag/beef_soft_underbelly/index.html. 1027. Chalk P. 2004. Hitting America’s soft underbelly: the potential threat of deliberate biological attacks against the U.S. agricultural and food industry. Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense. National Defense Research Institute, RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG135.pdf. 1028. National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. 2017. Table 18. Cattle and calves—number sold per farm by sales: 2017. 2017 Census of Agriculture—United States Data.


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The Digital Doctor: Hope, Hype, and Harm at the Dawn of Medicine’s Computer Age by Robert Wachter

"Robert Solow", activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AI winter, Airbnb, Atul Gawande, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, computer age, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, deskilling, disruptive innovation, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Firefox, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Google Glasses, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Internet of things, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, lifelogging, medical malpractice, medical residency, Menlo Park, minimum viable product, natural language processing, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, personalized medicine, pets.com, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, Skype, Snapchat, software as a service, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the payments system, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Toyota Production System, Uber for X, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Yogi Berra

Hirschtick, “A Piece of My Mind: Copy-and-Paste,” Journal of the American Medical Association 295:2335–2336 (2006). 72 Ross Koppel, a University of Pennsylvania sociologist Interview of Koppel by the author, July 18, 2014. 73 In 2013, Steve Stack, board chair of the American Medical Association Quoted in F. Quinn, “Why Are Doctors Frustrated in Using EHR?,” MedCity News, November 7, 2013, available at http://medcitynews.com/2013/11/doctors-frustratedusing-ehr/. 73 investigators at the RAND Corporation M. W. Friedberg, P. G. Chen, K. R. Van Busum, et al., “Factors Affecting Physician Professional Satisfaction and Their Implications for Patient Care, Health Systems, and Health Policy” (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2013). 73 “We had one question in the interview guide” Interview of Mark Friedberg by the author, July 25, 2014. 74 “Our study does not suggest that physicians are Luddites” M. Friedberg, F. J. Crosson, and M. Tutty, “Physicians’ Concerns About Electronic Health Records: Implications and Steps Towards Solutions,” Health Affairs blog, March 11, 2014, available at http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2014/03/11/physicians-concerns-about- electronic-health-records-implications-and-steps-towards-solutions/. 74 A separate 2013 survey reported “New IDC Health Insights Survey of Ambulatory Providers Reveals Dissatisfaction with Ambulatory EHR,” press release, November 13, 2013, available at http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?

In 2013, Steve Stack, board chair of the American Medical Association and a true believer in healthcare technology, explained the reasons: “EHRs have been and largely remain clunky, confusing, and complex. Though an 18-month-old child can operate an iPhone, physicians with seven to ten years of postcollegiate education are brought to their knees by their electronic health records.” That same year, investigators at the RAND Corporation reported the results of an indepth study of 30 physician practices designed to assess the effects of healthcare reform on doctors’ professional satisfaction. The researchers did not set out to examine physicians’ reactions to their EHRs; in fact, their initial plans called for a survey containing not a single question about computers. Before administering the surveys, the investigators sat down with groups of doctors to be sure they weren’t missing something.

See Problem-Oriented Medical Record privacy, 13–14 See also Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) Problem-Oriented Medical Record, 46, 79 productivity, 244 productivity paradox, 244–253 Quantified Self movement, 117, 122 radiologists alienation of, 56–58 busyness of, 58–59 economic pressures, 59–60 nighthawks, 60–61 replacement by computers, 61–62 resisting isolation, 62 radiology, 50 impact of PACS on, 53–56 teleradiology, 60–61 transition from film to computerized radiology, 51 RAND Corporation study of healthcare reform’s effects on doctor’s professional satisfaction, 73, 74 study on healthcare costs, 81, 247 rationing, 15 Reason, James, 131 regional health information exchanges (RHIOs), 187 Reider, Jacob, 211–212, 229–230 Reiser, Stanley, 30, 33, 41 relational coordination, 57 relationships, 77–78 demise of, 268 See also doctor-patient relationships Relman, Arnold “Bud”, 23–25 RHIOs.


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How to Kill a City: The Real Story of Gentrification by Peter Moskowitz

affirmative action, Airbnb, Bay Area Rapid Transit, British Empire, clean water, collective bargaining, David Brooks, deindustrialization, Detroit bankruptcy, drive until you qualify, East Village, Edward Glaeser, Golden Gate Park, housing crisis, income inequality, Jane Jacobs, Kickstarter, Kitchen Debate, late capitalism, mortgage tax deduction, Naomi Klein, new economy, New Urbanism, private military company, profit motive, RAND corporation, rent control, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Silicon Valley, starchitect, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, trickle-down economics, urban planning, urban renewal, white flight, working poor, Works Progress Administration, young professional

.… It looks like a lot of that place should be bulldozed.” The country’s collective ignoring of black New Orleanians’ lives also explains why there was no federal effort undertaken to figure out where exactly all the evacuees from Katrina had ended up. Ten years later, not one federal agency is studying the diaspora caused by Katrina. The biggest study of their whereabouts was performed by the nonprofit RAND Corporation, and that tracking program ended five years ago. A decade after the man-made failures that preceded and followed Katrina tore New Orleans apart, the “other America” narrative has been completely forgotten. The chasm has closed. And a new narrative—one of rebirth and growth—has overtaken the country’s popular media. The city has been “resurrected,” according to the Daily Beast. Its growth is an “economic miracle,” according to the National Journal.

“Fires are in fact a ‘leading indicator’ of social pathology for a neighborhood,” Moynihan wrote to Reagan. “They come first. Crime, and the rest follows. The psychiatric interpretation of fire-setting is complex, but it relates to the types of personalities which slums produce.… The time may have come when the issue of race could benefit from a period of benign neglect.” In 1976, the city cut thirty-four fire companies, relying on a study from the RAND Corporation that said the effects of shutting down those stations would be minimal, though letters from RAND employees from the time showed that at least some people knew the study was incorrect. Nearly all of the shut fire stations were in the Bronx and poor areas of Manhattan and Brooklyn. The effects were immediate and devastating. Fires destroyed entire neighborhoods. In some neighborhoods in the South Bronx, 80 percent of the population fled between 1970 and 1980.

According to Ishiwata, phrases like these: Eric Ishiwata, “‘We Are Seeing People We Didn’t Know Exist’: Katrina and the Neoliberal Erasure of Race,” in The Neoliberal Deluge: Hurricane Katrina, Late Capitalism, and the Remaking of New Orleans, ed. Cedric Johnson (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 2011). “I don’t know. That doesn’t make sense to me”: Charles Babington, “Hastert Tries Damage Control After Remarks Hit a Nerve,” Washington Post, September 3, 2005. The biggest study of their whereabouts: Narayan Sastry and Christine Peterson, “The Displaced New Orleans Residents Survey Questionnaire,” RAND Corporation, 2010, www.rand.org/labor/projects/dnors.html. The city has been “resurrected”: Jason Berry, “Eight Years After Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans Has Been Resurrected,” Daily Beast, August 29, 2013. Its growth is an “economic miracle”: Adam Kushner, “How New Orleans Pulled Off an Economic Miracle,” National Journal, April 7, 2013. People are experiencing New Orleans through fresh eyes: Lizzy Goodman, “Experiencing New Orleans with Fresh Eyes and Ears,” New York Times, March 6, 2014.


Paper Knowledge: Toward a Media History of Documents by Lisa Gitelman

Andrew Keen, computer age, corporate governance, deskilling, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, East Village, en.wikipedia.org, information retrieval, Internet Archive, invention of movable type, Jaron Lanier, knowledge economy, Marshall McLuhan, Mikhail Gorbachev, national security letter, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, optical character recognition, profit motive, QR code, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, Turing test, WikiLeaks, Works Progress Administration

Not only was the government’s case against Ellsberg eventually dismissed on the grounds of prosecutorial misconduct, but further covert operations by the Plumbers would include the infamous Watergate break-­ in, a key link in the twisted chain of events that led to Nixon’s resignation in 1974. The whole affair started in October 1969, when Ellsberg began to copy in installments a multivolume work with the ungainly title “History of U.S. Decision-­Making Process on Vietnam Policy,” also known as the “Report of the Office of the Secretary of Defense Vietnam Task Force.” He took sections of the history home from his office at the rand Corporation, returning each section after secretly photocopying it at night on a machine in the office of a sympathetic friend. The history was bound in cardboard covers with metal tapes, which could be removed for copying. There were forty-­seven volumes in all, and Ellsberg started in the middle. He was Xeroxing one of fifteen extant duplicates, produced in house at the Pentagon at the behest of Robert McNamara.

The history was made with and out of photocopies, it seems—and photocopies of photocopies, photocopies of transcripts of cables, photocopies of mimeograph copies, and so on— while the heterogeneity of the final version reflected that process when it was typed and reproduced in house.19 Ellsberg himself had been recruited XEROGRAPHERS OF THE MIND 89 F I G U R E 3 .1. Map 2, a photocopy of a photocopy (notice the multiply reproduced loose-­leaf holes), reproduced as part of the Pentagon Papers Part IV-­B-­2 (1969) to document the beginning of the U.S.-­backed “Strategic Hamlet Program” in South Vietnam (1962), digitized by the National Archives and Records Administration in 2011. as an author for the history while he was an employee of the rand Corporation. He worked for several months during 1967 compiling material and drafting a section on the policy of President John F. Kennedy’s administration—although, according to Gelb, little of Ellsberg’s draft survived in the final version.20 Ellsberg was now effectively reediting the edit to which he and his subject had been subject. While part of Ellsberg’s investment in the photocopies as photocopies was editorial, another part of it was mimetic, concerning reproduction itself.

See xerographics photography, 112–13, 149 Piper, Andrew, 19, 153n21 Planet pdf, 123 Poe, Edgar Alan, 28, 29, 50, 51; “The Purloined Letter,” 28–29 portable document format (pdf), 7, 18, 100, 114–19, 121–34 PostScript, 121, 123, 125, 132 Power, Eugene, 73–74, 79–80, 119, 130, 132 Preston, Cathy Lynn, 105 Price, Leah, 252n8 “print culture,” 7–9, 11, 20, 25 Printers’ Circular, 37, 42, 45 printers’ monopoly, 51–52, 82, 137, 146 Privacy Act of 1974, 97 ProQuest, 54, 79–80 Public Company Accountability Reform and Investor Protection Act of 2002, 97 Putnam, Herbert, 107 rand Corporation, 86, 91 Raney, M. Llewellyn, 73 receipts, 3, 21–22, 24, 30, 34, 36, 46 Reign of Terror, 16 Ritchie, Dennis, 97–100 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 59 Rostow, Walter, 94 Rotsler, Bill, 147 R. R. Donnelley & Sons, 66 Rumble, Walker, 162n60 Rumsfeld, Donald, 97 Russo, Anthony, 88–89, 91 samizdat, 95, 100, 174n41 Sánchez-­Eppler, Karen, 140, 141 Scalia, Antonin, 97 scholarly communication, 13–15, 52, 56, 60, 70–72, 133 Schwartz, Hillel, 172n3, 173n17 scientific management, 37, 56 Selden, Charles, 33–35; Selden’s Condensed Ledger, 33–34 Selden, Elizabeth, 34 Sellen, Abigail, 4, 111, 128, 130, 152n9 Sheehan, Neil, 92, 94–95 Shirky, Clay, 20, 136 Short Title Catalogue (Pollard and Redgrave), 73, 119 Sieyès, Emmanuel Joseph, 158n4 Sketchpad, 120–21 Smithsonian Institution, 52 Social Science Research Council, 14, 54, 57, 60, 63.


pages: 308 words: 84,713

The Glass Cage: Automation and Us by Nicholas Carr

Airbnb, Airbus A320, Andy Kessler, Atul Gawande, autonomous vehicles, Bernard Ziegler, business process, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Charles Lindbergh, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, computerized trading, David Brooks, deliberate practice, deskilling, digital map, Douglas Engelbart, drone strike, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, High speed trading, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jacquard loom, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, natural language processing, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, place-making, plutocrats, Plutocrats, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, software is eating the world, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, turn-by-turn navigation, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Langewiesche

What we’ve learned is that automation has a sometimes-tragic tendency to increase the complexity of a job at the worst possible moment—when workers already have too much to handle. The computer, introduced as an aid to reduce the chances of human error, ends up making it more likely that people, like shocked mice, will make the wrong move. CHAPTER FIVE WHITE-COLLAR COMPUTER LATE IN THE SUMMER OF 2005, researchers at the venerable RAND Corporation in California made a stirring prediction about the future of American medicine. Having completed what they called “the most detailed analysis ever conducted of the potential benefits of electronic medical records,” they declared that the U.S. health-care system “could save more than $81 billion annually and improve the quality of care” if hospitals and physicians automated their record keeping.

Stanton, “Attention and Automation: New Perspectives on Mental Overload and Performance,” Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 3, no. 2 (2002): 178–194. 6.Mark W. Scerbo, “Adaptive Automation,” in Raja Parasuraman and Matthew Rizzo, eds., Neuroergonomics: The Brain at Work (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), 239–252. Chapter Five: WHITE-COLLAR COMPUTER 1.“RAND Study Says Computerizing Medical Records Could Save $81 Billion Annually and Improve the Quality of Medical Care,” RAND Corporation press release, September 14, 2005. 2.Richard Hillestad et al., “Can Electronic Medical Record Systems Transform Health Care? Potential Health Benefits, Savings, and Costs,” Health Affairs 24, no. 5 (2005): 1103–1117. 3.Reed Abelson and Julie Creswell, “In Second Look, Few Savings from Digital Health Records,” New York Times, January 10, 2013. 4.Jeanne Lambrew, “More than Half of Doctors Now Use Electronic Health Records Thanks to Administration Policies,” The White House Blog, May 24, 2013, whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/05/24/more-half-doctors-use-electronic-health-records-thanks-administration-policies. 5.Arthur L.

., 60–61, 154 death of, 53 erosion of expertise of, 54–58, 62–63 human- vs. technology-centered automation and, 168–70, 172–73 income of, 59–60 see also autopilot place, 131–34, 137, 251n place cells, 133–34, 136, 219 Plato, 148 Player Piano (Vonnegut), 39 poetry, 211–16, 218, 221–22 Poirier, Richard, 214, 215 Politics (Aristotle), 224 Popular Science, 48 Post, Wiley, 48, 50, 53, 57, 62, 82, 169 power, 21, 37, 65, 151, 175, 204, 217 practice, 82–83 Predator drone, 188 premature fixation, 145 presence, power of, 200 Priestley, Joseph, 160 Prius, 6, 13, 154–55 privacy, 206 probability, 113–24 procedural (tacit) knowledge, 9–11, 83, 105, 113, 144 productivity, 18, 22, 29, 30, 37, 106, 160, 173, 175, 181, 218 professional work, incursion of computers into, 115 profit motive, 17 profits, 18, 22, 28, 30, 33, 95, 159, 171, 172–73, 175 progress, 21, 26, 29, 37, 40, 65, 196, 214 acceleration of, 26 scientific, 31, 123 social, 159–60, 228 progress (continued) technological, 29, 31, 34, 35, 48–49, 108–9, 159, 160, 161, 173, 174, 222, 223–24, 226, 228, 230 utopian vision of, 25, 26 prosperity, 20, 21, 107 proximal cues, 219–20 psychologists, psychology, 9, 11, 15, 54, 103, 119, 149, 158–59 animal studies, 87–92 cognitive, 72–76, 81, 129–30 psychomotor skills, 56, 57–58, 81, 120 quality of experience, 14–15 Race against the Machine (Brynjolfsson and McAfee), 28–29 RAND Corporation, 93–98 “Rationalism in Politics” (Oakeshott), 124 Rattner, Justin, 203 reading, learning of, 82 Reaper drone, 188 reasoning, reason, 120, 121, 124, 151 recession, 27, 28, 30, 32 Red Dead Redemption, 177–78 “Relation of Strength of Stimulus to Rapidity of Habit-Formation, The” (Yerkes and Dodson), 89 Renslow, Marvin, 43–44 Revit, 146, 147 Rifkin, Jeremy, 28 Robert, David, 45, 169–70 Robert Frost (Poirier), 214 Roberts, J.


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Going Dark: The Secret Social Lives of Extremists by Julia Ebner

23andMe, 4chan, Airbnb, anti-communist, anti-globalists, augmented reality, Ayatollah Khomeini, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, citizen journalism, cognitive dissonance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, feminist movement, game design, glass ceiling, Google Earth, job satisfaction, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, Network effects, off grid, pattern recognition, pre–internet, QAnon, RAND corporation, ransomware, rising living standards, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, Transnistria, WikiLeaks, zero day

Most campaigns involved the circulation of misinformation in the run-up to critical junctions such as elections, referendums and crises.36 The disappearance of trust in independent information sources is a slow poison that threatens to undermine the fundamental pillars of our democracies. The erosion of civil discourse, political paralysis, alienation and uncertainty are among the most severe consequences of the ‘Truth Decay’, as researchers of the RAND Corporation have called it.37 Trust doesn’t vanish overnight, but over the past few years we have watched its gradual erosion on different levels. First came the distrust in the political and financial establishment. The 2008 global financial crisis and its various connected scandals fuelled fears that national and international political and economic bodies were not acting in the public’s interest and had secret agendas that might at any point afflict the average man’s bank account.

zd=6&zi=csitrt27. 36Samantha Bradshaw and Philip N. Howard, ‘Challenging Truth and Trust: A Global Inventory of Organized Social Media Manipulation’, Working Paper 2018.1, Oxford, UK, Project on Computational Propaganda. Available at comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk. 37Jennifer Kavanagh and Michael D. Rich, ‘Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life’, RAND Corporation. Available at https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2314.html. 38Public Policy Polling, April 2013. The press release and summary are available at https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_National_ConspiracyTheories_040213.pdf. 39Kavanagh and Rich, ‘Truth Decay: An Initial Exploration of the Diminishing Role of Facts and Analysis in American Public Life’. 40Fabian Klask, ‘Die Stille nach der lauten Nacht’, Die Zeit, 29 December 2017.

., Daniel here Habeck, Robert here HackerOne here hackers and hacking here ‘capture the flag’ operations here, here denial of service operations here ethical hacking here memory-corruption operations here political hacking here ‘qwning’ here SQL injections here techniques here Halle shooting here Hamas here, here Hanks, Tom here Happn here Harris, DeAndre here ‘hashtag stuffing’ here Hate Library here HateAid here, here Hatreon here, here, here Heidegger, Martin here Heise, Thorsten here, here Hensel, Gerald here, here Herzliya International Institute for Counter-Terrorism here Heyer, Heather here, here, here Himmler, Heinrich here Hintsteiner, Edwin here Histiaeus here Hitler, Adolf here, here, here, here, here Mein Kampf here, here Hitler salutes here, here, here, here Hitler Youth here HIV here Hizb ut-Tahrir here, here, here Höcker, Karl-Friedrich here Hofstadter, Richard here Hollywood here Holocaust here Holocaust denial here, here, here, here, here Holy War Hackers Team here Home Office here homophobia here, here, here Hooton Plan here Hoover Dam here Hope Not Hate here, here, here Horgan, John here Horowitz Foundation here Hot or Not here House of Saud here Huda, Noor here human trafficking here, here Hussein, Saddam here, here Hutchins, Marcus here Hyppönen, Mikko here Identity Evropa here, here iFrames here Illuminati here Incels (Involuntary Celibacy) here, here Independent here Inkster, Nigel here Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here Intelius here International Business Times here International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR) here International Federation of Journalists here International Holocaust Memorial Day here International Institute for Strategic Studies here Internet Research Agency (IRA) here iPads here iPhones here iProphet here Iranian revolution here Isabella I, Queen of Castile here ISIS here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here hackers and here, here, here, here, here Islamophobia here, here, here, here, here, here, here Tommy Robinson and here, here see also Finsbury Mosque attack Israel here, here, here, here, here Israel Defense Forces here, here Jackson, Michael here jahiliyya here Jakarta attacks here Jamaah Ansharud Daulah (JAD) here Japanese anime here Jemaah Islamiyah here Jesus Christ here Jewish numerology here Jews here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here see also anti-Semitism; ZOG JFG World here jihadi brides here, here JihadWatch here Jobs, Steve here Johnson, Boris here Jones, Alex here Jones, Ron here Junge Freiheit here Jurgenson, Nathan here JustPasteIt here Kafka, Franz here Kampf der Niebelungen here, here Kapustin, Denis ‘Nikitin’ here Kassam, Raheem here Kellogg’s here Kennedy, John F. here, here Kennedy family here Kessler, Jason here, here Khomeini, Ayataollah here Kim Jong-un here Kohl, Helmut here Köhler, Daniel here Kronen Zeitung here Kronos banking Trojan here Ku Klux Klan here, here Küssel, Gottfried here Lane, David here Le Loop here Le Pen, Marine here LeBretton, Matthew here Lebron, Michael here Lee, Robert E. here Li, Sean here Li family here Libyan Fighting Group here LifeOfWat here Lifton, Robert here Littman, Gisele here live action role play (LARP) here, here, here, here, here, here lobbying here Lokteff, Lana here loneliness here, here, here, here, here, here, here Lorraine, DeAnna here Lügenpresse here McDonald’s here McInnes, Gavin here McMahon, Ed here Macron, Emmanuel here, here, here, here MAGA (Make America Great Again) here ‘mainstream media’ here, here, here ‘Millennium Dawn’ here Manosphere here, here, here March for Life here Maria Theresa statue here, here Marighella, Carlos here Marina Bay Sands Hotel (Singapore) here Marx, Karl here Das Kapital here Masculine Development here Mason, James here MAtR (Men Among the Ruins) here, here Matrix, The here, here, here, here May, Theresa here, here, here Meechan, Mark here Meme Warfare here memes here, here, here, here and terrorist attacks here Men’s Rights Activists (MRA) here Menlo Park here Mercer Family Foundation here Merkel, Angela here, here, here, here MGTOW (Men Going Their Own Way) here, here, here MI6, 158, 164 migration here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here see also refugees millenarianism here Millennial Woes here millennials here Minassian, Alek here Mindanao here Minds here, here misogyny here, here, here, here, here see also Incels mixed martial arts (MMA) here, here, here, here Morgan, Nicky here Mounk, Yascha here Movement, The here Mueller, Robert here, here Muhammad, Prophet here, here, here mujahidat here Mulhall, Joe here MuslimCrypt here MuslimTec here, here Mussolini, Benito here Naim, Bahrun here, here Nance, Malcolm here Nasher App here National Action here National Bolshevism here National Democratic Party (NPD) here, here, here, here National Health Service (NHS) here National Policy Institute here, here National Socialism group here National Socialist Movement here National Socialist Underground here NATO DFR Lab here Naturalnews here Nawaz, Maajid here Nazi symbols here, here, here, here, here, here, here see also Hitler salutes; swastikas Nazi women here N-count here Neiwert, David here Nero, Emperor here Netflix here Network Contagion Research Institute here NetzDG legislation here, here Neumann, Peter here New Balance shoes here New York Times here News Corp here Newsnight here Nietzsche, Friedrich here, here Nikolai Alexander, Supreme Commander here, here, here, here, here, here 9/11 attacks here, here ‘nipsters’ here, here No Agenda here Northwest Front (NWF) here, here Nouvelle Droite here, here NPC meme here NSDAP here, here, here Obama, Barack and Michelle here, here, here, here, here Omas gegen Rechts here online harassment, gender and here OpenAI here open-source intelligence (OSINT) here, here Operation Name and Shame here Orbán, Viktor here, here organised crime here Orwell, George here, here Osborne, Darren here, here Oxford Internet Institute here Page, Larry here Panofsky, Aaron here Panorama here Parkland high-school shooting here Patreon here, here, here, here Patriot Peer here, here PayPal here PeopleLookup here Periscope here Peterson, Jordan here Pettibone, Brittany here, here, here Pew Research Center here, here PewDiePie here PewTube here Phillips, Whitney here Photofeeler here Phrack High Council here Pink Floyd here Pipl here Pittsburgh synagogue shooting here Pizzagate here Podesta, John here, here political propaganda here Popper, Karl here populist politicians here pornography here, here Poway synagogue shooting here, here Pozner, Lenny here Presley, Elvis here Prideaux, Sue here Prince Albert Police here Pro Chemnitz here ‘pseudo-conservatives’ here Putin, Vladimir here Q Britannia here QAnon here, here, here, here Quebec mosque shooting here Quilliam Foundation here, here, here Quinn, Zoë here Quran here racist slurs (n-word) here Radio 3Fourteen here Radix Journal here Rafiq, Haras here Ramakrishna, Kumar here RAND Corporation here Rasmussen, Tore here, here, here, here Raymond, Jolynn here Rebel Media here, here, here Reconquista Germanica here, here, here, here, here, here, here Reconquista Internet here Red Pill Women here, here, here, here, here Reddit here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here redpilling here, here, here, here refugees here, here, here, here, here Relotius, Claas here ‘Remove Kebab’ here Renault here Revolution Chemnitz here Rigby, Lee here Right Wing Terror Center here Right Wing United (RWU) here RMV (Relationship Market Value) here Robertson, Caolan here Robinson, Tommy here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here Rockefeller family here Rodger, Elliot here Roof, Dylann here, here Rosenberg, Alfred here Rothschilds here, here Rowley, Mark here Roy, Donald F. here Royal Family here Russia Today here, here S., Johannes here St Kilda Beach meeting here Salafi Media here Saltman, Erin here Salvini, Matteo here Sampson, Chris here, here Sandy Hook school shooting here Sargon of Akkad, see Benjamin, Carl Schild & Schwert rock festival (Ostritz) here, here, here Schilling, Curt here Schlessinger, Laura C. here Scholz & Friends here SchoolDesk here Schröder, Patrick here Sellner, Martin here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here Serrano, Francisco here ‘sexual economics’ here SGT Report here Shodan here, here Siege-posting here Sleeping Giants here SMV (Sexual Market Value) here, here, here Social Justice Warriors (SJW) here, here Solahütte here Soros, George here, here Sotloff, Steven here Southern, Lauren here Southfront here Spencer, Richard here, here, here, here, here, here Spiegel TV here spoofing technology here Sputnik here, here SS here, here Stadtwerke Borken here Star Wars here Steinmeier, Frank-Walter here Stewart, Ayla here STFU (Shut the Fuck Up) here Stormfront here, here, here Strache, H.


pages: 465 words: 124,074

Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism From Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda by John Mueller

airport security, Albert Einstein, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Doomsday Clock, energy security, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, long peace, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, oil shock, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, side project, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, Yom Kippur War

The precise calculations and the cool, comfortable vocabulary were coming all too commonly to be grasped not merely as tools of desperation but as genuine reflections of the nature of nuclear war.22 The central concept explored and developed in that living dreamworld was deterrence. The thinking process is nicely summarized in the recent recollections of Brian Jenkins, who, as an analyst at the RAND Corporation, has been at the center of this intellectual development for decades. The italics are mine: Each [side in the cold war] possessed an arsenal capable of ending modern civilization. Avoiding nuclear war became the major preoccupation of leaders of both sides. This required military planners to persuade their opponents that neither side could gain sufficient advantage to make starting a nuclear war even thinkable—neither could escape annihilation by launching a preemptive attack.

Paper presented at the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association. San Francisco, CA, 26–29 March. Jenkins, Brian Michael. 1975. “International Terrorism: A New Mode of Conflict.” In International Terrorism and World Security, ed. David Carlton and Carolo Schaerf. New York: Wiley, 13–49. ______. 2006. Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy and Strengthening Ourselves. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. ______. 2008. Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? Amherst, NY: Prometheus. Jentleson, Bruce W., and Christopher A. Whytock. 2005/06. “Who ‘Won’ Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy.” International Security 30(3) Winter: 47–86. Jervis, Robert. 1979. “Deterrence Theory Revisited.” World Politics 31(2) January: 289–324. ______. 1980. “The Impact of the Korean War on the Cold War.”

“Ballistic Missiles and Chemical Weapons: The Legacy of the Iran-Iraq War.” International Security 15(2) Fall: 5–34. McNeill, William H. 1982. The Pursuit of Power: Technology, Armed Force, and Society since A.D. 1000. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. McPhee, John. 1974. The Curve of Binding Energy. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux. Meade, Charles, and Roger C. Molander. 2006. Considering the Effects of a Catastrophic Terrorist Attack. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Mearsheimer, John J. 1983. Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. ______. 1984/85. “Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in Europe.” International Security 9(3) Winter: 19–47. ______. 1988. Liddell Hart and the Weight of History. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. ______. 1990. “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War.” International Security 15(1) Summer: 5–56. ______. 1993.


pages: 413 words: 119,587

Machines of Loving Grace: The Quest for Common Ground Between Humans and Robots by John Markoff

"Robert Solow", A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, AI winter, airport security, Apple II, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bill Duvall, bioinformatics, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, call centre, cellular automata, Chris Urmson, Claude Shannon: information theory, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, collective bargaining, computer age, computer vision, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, DARPA: Urban Challenge, data acquisition, Dean Kamen, deskilling, don't be evil, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Hofstadter, Dynabook, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, factory automation, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, future of work, Galaxy Zoo, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Grace Hopper, Gunnar Myrdal, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hacker Ethic, haute couture, hive mind, hypertext link, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, information retrieval, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of the wheel, Jacques de Vaucanson, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Conway, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, loose coupling, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, medical residency, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, Mother of all demos, natural language processing, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Stallman, Robert Gordon, Rodney Brooks, Sand Hill Road, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, semantic web, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Singularitarianism, skunkworks, Skype, social software, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, strong AI, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, Ted Nelson, telemarketer, telepresence, telepresence robot, Tenerife airport disaster, The Coming Technological Singularity, the medium is the message, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Catalog, William Shockley: the traitorous eight, zero-sum game

This results in a system of almost unlimited productive capacity which requires progressively less human labor.”15 The resulting National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress would include a remarkable group ranging from Reuther, Thomas J. Watson Jr. of IBM, and Edwin Land of Polaroid, to Robert Solow, the MIT economist, and Daniel Bell, the Columbia sociologist. When the 115-page report appeared at the end of 1966 it was accompanied by 1,787 pages of appendices including special reports by outside experts. The 232-page analysis of the impact of computing by Paul Armer of the RAND Corporation did a remarkable job of predicting the impact of information technology. Indeed, the headings in the report have proven true over the years: “Computers Are Becoming Faster, Smaller, and Less Expensive”; “Computing Power Will Become Available Much the Same as Electricity and Telephone Service Are Today”; “Information Itself Will Become Inexpensive and Readily Available”; “Computers Will Become Easier to Use”; “Computers Will Be Used to Process Pictorial Images and Graphic Information”; and “Computers Will Be Used to Process Language,” among others.

Although Weizenbaum’s critique was about the morality of building intelligent machines, the more heated debate was over whether such machines were even possible. Seymour Papert, Winograd’s thesis advisor, had become engaged in a bitter debate with Hubert Dreyfus, a philosopher and Heidegger acolyte, who, just one decade after McCarthy had coined the term, would ridicule the field in a scathing paper entitled “Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence,” published in 1965 by the RAND Corporation.11 (Years later, in the 2014 movie remake of RoboCop, the fictional U.S. senator who sponsors legislation banning police robots is named Hubert Dreyfus in homage.) Dreyfus ran afoul of AI researchers in the early sixties when they showed up in his Heidegger course and belittled philosophers for failing to understand human intelligence after studying it for centuries.12 It was a slight he would not forget.

_r=0. 9.David W. Dunlap, “Looking Back: 1978—‘Farewell, Etaoin Shrdlu,’” Times Insider, New York Times, November 13, 2014. 10.Terry Winograd, “Procedures as a Representation for Data in a Computer Program for Understanding Natural Language,” MIT AI Technical Report 235, February 1971, 38–39, http://hci.stanford.edu/winograd/shrdlu/AITR-235.pdf. 11.Hubert Dreyfus, “Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence,” RAND Corporation, 1965, http://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P3244.html. 12.Hubert Dreyfus, “Why Heideggerian AI Failed and How Fixing It Would Require Making It More Heideggerian,” http://leidl mair.at/doc/WhyHeideggerianAIFailed.pdf. 13.Dreyfus, “Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence.” 14.Seymour Papert, “The Artificial Intelligence of Hubert L. Dreyfus: A Budget of Fallacies,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Project Mac, Memo.


Autonomous Driving: How the Driverless Revolution Will Change the World by Andreas Herrmann, Walter Brenner, Rupert Stadler

Airbnb, Airbus A320, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, blockchain, call centre, carbon footprint, cleantech, computer vision, conceptual framework, connected car, crowdsourcing, cyber-physical system, DARPA: Urban Challenge, data acquisition, demand response, digital map, disruptive innovation, Elon Musk, fault tolerance, fear of failure, global supply chain, industrial cluster, intermodal, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, Lyft, manufacturing employment, market fundamentalism, Mars Rover, Masdar, megacity, Pearl River Delta, peer-to-peer rental, precision agriculture, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, ride hailing / ride sharing, self-driving car, sensor fusion, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, Steve Jobs, Tesla Model S, Tim Cook: Apple, uber lyft, upwardly mobile, urban planning, Zipcar

It’s the last 10 per cent cially in urban areas in the most challenging traffic situations and espethat makes the difference. That’s why the vehicles have to be tested in as many traffic situations as possible so that experience is gained on their reactions. A similar argument is presented by Jen-Hsun Huang, CEO of Nvidia, who demands accuracy of 99.999999 per cent in the development of autonomous cars, whereby the last percentage point can only be achieved at very great expense. Toyota and Rand Corporation have published calculations of the number of miles self-driving cars have to be tested before they can be assessed as roadworthy because the algorithms required for driverless cars undergo self-learning in multiple road traffic situations. The more traffic situations these algorithms are exposed to, the better prepared they are to master a new situation. Designing this training process so that the accuracy demanded by Jen-Hsun Huang is obtained will be the crucial challenge in the development of autonomous vehicles.

According to the latest research of the World Health Organisation, 90 per cent of the world’s population lives in places with poor air quality. One of the main causes is traffic, along with heating, garbage incineration and coal power plants [8]. In numerous places, there are ongoing discussions about banning cars from inner cities altogether so as to meet the air-quality standards. Research by the Rand Corporation also attempted to determine the social costs of a driven mile [3]. In conjunction with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, six important externalities were defined for the United States: oil-security costs, air pollution, climate change, traffic congestion, accidents and noise. All in all, they amount to some 13 cents per driven mile. Some of these externalities vary by time and location, such as congestion and noise costs, which are lower outside urban areas and higher within them.

and we intend to work on that with commit- This page intentionally left blank BIBLIOGRAPHY [1] ACEA Scientific Advisory Group Report, 2014: Carsharing: Evolution, Challenges, and Opportunities, Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London. [2] Alessandrini, A., Campagna, A., Delle Site, P., Filippi, F., Persia, L., 2015: Automated Vehicles and the Rethinking of Mobility and Cities, in: Transportation Research Procedia, 145 160. [3] Anderson, J. M., Kalra, N., Stanley, K. D., Sorensen, P., Samaras, C., Oluwatola, O. A., 2014: Autonomous Vehicle Technology: A Guide for Policymakers, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica. [4] Arbib, J., Seba, T., 2017: Rethinking Transportation 2020 2030, Rethink Disruption Report. [5] Arup Foresight, 2014: Future of Rail 2050, London. [6] Bainbridge, L., 1983: Ironies of Automation, in: Automatica, 775 779. [7] Barclays, 2015: Disruptive Mobility. [8] Barth, M., Boriboonsomsin, K., Wu, G., 2014: Vehicle Automation and its Potential Impacts on Energy and Emissions, in: Meyer, G., Beiker, S., Road Vehicles Automation, Berlin, 103 112. [9] Bécsi, T., Aradi, S., Gáspár, P., 2015: Security Issues and Vulnerabilities in Connected Car Systems, in: IEEE Models and Technologies for Intelligent Transportation Systems, 477 482. [10] Beiker, S., 2012: Legal Aspects of Autonomous Driving, in: Santa Clara Law Review, Article 1. 413 Bibliography 414 [11] Beiker, S., 2016: Deployment Scenarios for Vehicles with Higherorder Automation, in: Maurer, M., Gerdes, C.


Theory of Games and Economic Behavior: 60th Anniversary Commemorative Edition (Princeton Classic Editions) by John von Neumann, Oskar Morgenstern

Albert Einstein, business cycle, collective bargaining, full employment, Isaac Newton, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, linear programming, Nash equilibrium, Parkinson's law, Paul Samuelson, profit motive, RAND corporation, the market place, zero-sum game

If Shubik had come two years earlier, he would have found the situation in the mathematics department somewhat similar. Samuel Karlin (who received his Ph.D. at Princeton in mathematics in the spring of 1947 then took a faculty position at Cal Tech, and almost immediately started to consult at the RAND Corporation under the tutelage of Frederic Bohnenblust) has written that he never heard game theory mentioned during his graduate studies. Nevertheless, many observers agree that in the following decade Princeton was one of the two centers in which game theory flourished, the other being the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica. The story of the RAND Corporation and its research sponsored by the Air Force has been told on several occasions (see [11], [12]). We shall concentrate on the activity in the mathematics department at Princeton, a story that illustrates the strong element of chance in human affairs.

Thus, game theory was very much a work in progress, in spite of von Neumann’s opinion that the book contained a rather complete theory. Through the efforts at RAND and at Princeton University, many new directions of research had been opened and the way had been paved for the applications to come. The TGEB was published with unparalleled accolades from the cream of the mathematical economists of the era, then ignored by the economists while mathematicians at the RAND Corporation and at Princeton quietly pushed the boundaries of the subject into new territory. It took nearly a quarter century before reality overcame the stereotypical view that it was merely a theory of zero-sum two-person games and that its usefulness was restricted to military problems. Once these myths were countered, applications came tumbling out and, by the time the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics was awarded in 1994 to Nash, John Harsanyi, and Reinhard Selten, the theory of games had assumed a central position in academic economic theory.

McKinsey, Introduction to the Theory of Games, New York (1952). (5) A. Wald, Statistical Decision Functions, New York (1950). (6) J. Williams, The Compleat Strategyst, Being a Primer on the Theory of Games of Strategy, New York (1953). Bibliographies on the subject are found in all of the above books except (6). Extensive work in this field has been done during the last years by the staff of the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California. A bibliography of this work can be found in the RAND publication RM-950. In the theory of n-person games, there have been some further developments in the direction of “non-cooperative” games. In this respect, particularly the work of J. F. Nash, “Non-cooperative Games,” Annals of Mathematics, Vol. 54, (1951), pp. 286–295, must be mentioned. Further references to this work are found in (1), (2), and (4).


Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action by Elinor Ostrom

agricultural Revolution, clean water, Gödel, Escher, Bach, land tenure, Pareto efficiency, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, RAND corporation, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs

In Paradoxes of Rationality and Cooperation, eds. R. Campbell and L. Sowden, pp. 3-41. Vancouver: Uni­ versity of British Columbia Press. Carruthers, I., and R. Stoner. 1981. Economic Aspects and Policy Issues in Groundwater Development. World Bank staff working paper No. 496, Wash­ ington, D.C. Cave, J. A. K. 1984. The Cold Fish War: Long-Term Competition in a Dynamic . Game. Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand Corporation. Central and West Basin Water Replenishment District. 1987. Annual Survey Re­ port on Ground Water Replenishment. Glendale, Calif.: Bookman, Edmmonston Engineering. Chamberlin, J. 1974. Provision of Collective Goods as a Function of Group Size. American Political Science Review 68:707-16. Chambers, J. D., and G. E. Mingay. 1966. The Agricultural Revolution, 1750­ 1880. New York: Schocken Books.

., and P. C. Ordeshook. 1973. An Introduction to Positive Political Theory. New York: Prentice-HalL Roberts, M. 1980. Traditional Customs and Irrigation Development in Sri Lanka. In Irrigation and Agricultural Development in Asia, ed. E. W. Coward, Jr., pp. 186-202. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press. Rolph, E. S. 1982. Government Allocation of Property Rights: Why and How. Technical report, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, California. Rolph, E. S. 1983. Government Allocation of Property Rights: Who Gets What? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 3:45-61. Rose-Ackerman, S. 1977. Market Models for Water Pollution Control: Their Strengths and Weaknesses. Public Policy 25:383--406. Rosenberg, N. 1982. Inside the Black Box: Technology and Economics. Cambridge 264 References University Press.


pages: 422 words: 131,666

Life Inc.: How the World Became a Corporation and How to Take It Back by Douglas Rushkoff

addicted to oil, affirmative action, Amazon Mechanical Turk, anti-globalists, banks create money, big-box store, Bretton Woods, car-free, Charles Lindbergh, colonial exploitation, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, computer age, corporate governance, credit crunch, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, death of newspapers, don't be evil, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, easy for humans, difficult for computers, financial innovation, Firefox, full employment, global village, Google Earth, greed is good, Howard Rheingold, income per capita, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, laissez-faire capitalism, loss aversion, market bubble, market design, Marshall McLuhan, Milgram experiment, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, negative equity, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, peak oil, peer-to-peer, place-making, placebo effect, Ponzi scheme, price mechanism, price stability, principal–agent problem, private military company, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, RFID, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, short selling, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, social software, Steve Jobs, Telecommunications Act of 1996, telemarketer, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, trade route, trickle-down economics, union organizing, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, Victor Gruen, white flight, working poor, Works Progress Administration, Y2K, young professional, zero-sum game

” — MARGARET THATCHER If our economic theorists seem particularly coldhearted and zero-sum in their thinking about human behavior, we might blame it at least in part on the Cold War. By the 1950s, most of the best mathematicians and social scientists had been hired either directly or through grants to work out America’s nuclear-war-game scenarios against the Soviet Union. In a situation where the enemy might be signing a nonproliferation treaty while actually stockpiling an arsenal, paranoia made good sense. The think-tank logicians at the Rand Corporation called it “the prisoner’s dilemma.” The scenario went something like this: Two suspects are arrested by the police, who have insufficient evidence to convict either one. If one betrays the other, who remains silent, the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives a ten-year sentence. If both remain silent, they both get six months. If both betray each other, they each get a five-year sentence.

In Reagan’s persona as well as his politics, the independent, shoot-from-the-hip individualism of the Marlboro Man became compatible—even synergistic—with the economics and culture of self-interest. No-blink brinksmanship with the “evil” Soviet empire, the dismantling of domestic government institutions, the decertification of labor unions, and the promotion of unfettered corporate capitalism all came out of the same combination of Rand Corporation game theory and the 1960s antipsychiatry movement. Regulations designed to protect the environment, worker safety, and consumer rights were summarily decried as unnecessary government meddling in the marketplace. As if channeling Friedrich Hayek by way of R. D. Laing, Reagan shrank the social-welfare system by closing the public-psychiatric-hospital system. Almost simultaneously in the U.K., just a few months after becoming head of the Conservatives, Margaret Thatcher explicitly made Hayek her party’s patron saint.

The principles of the intentionally corporatized marketplace are not embedded in the human genome, nor is self-interested behavior an innate human instinct. If anything, it’s the other way around: a landscape defined by the competitive market will promote self-interested behavior. It’s the surest path to a corporatist society. Maybe that was the objective all along. Central Currency The economy in which we all participate is no more natural than the game scenarios John Nash set up to test the Rand Corporation’s secretaries. It is a model for human interaction, based on a set of false assumptions about human behavior. Even if we buy the proposition that people act as self-interestedly as they possibly can, we must accept the reality that people’s actual choices don’t correspond with their own financial well-being. They do not act in their own best financial interests. People are either both greedy and stupid, or something else entirely.


How I Became a Quant: Insights From 25 of Wall Street's Elite by Richard R. Lindsey, Barry Schachter

Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, Andrew Wiles, Antoine Gombaud: Chevalier de Méré, asset allocation, asset-backed security, backtesting, bank run, banking crisis, Black-Scholes formula, Bonfire of the Vanities, Bretton Woods, Brownian motion, business cycle, business process, butter production in bangladesh, buy and hold, buy low sell high, capital asset pricing model, centre right, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computerized markets, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, discounted cash flows, disintermediation, diversification, Donald Knuth, Edward Thorp, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, financial innovation, fixed income, full employment, George Akerlof, Gordon Gekko, hiring and firing, implied volatility, index fund, interest rate derivative, interest rate swap, John von Neumann, linear programming, Loma Prieta earthquake, Long Term Capital Management, margin call, market friction, market microstructure, martingale, merger arbitrage, Myron Scholes, Nick Leeson, P = NP, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, pensions crisis, performance metric, prediction markets, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, shareholder value, Sharpe ratio, short selling, Silicon Valley, six sigma, sorting algorithm, statistical arbitrage, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Levy, stochastic process, systematic trading, technology bubble, The Great Moderation, the scientific method, too big to fail, trade route, transaction costs, transfer pricing, value at risk, volatility smile, Wiener process, yield curve, young professional

So off I went across the river for courses in the mathematics of stock market prices and options. They were more of a diversion than an avocation, but the accident of the brackets had more influence subsequently than I could have imagined at the time. Harry also enlisted me as the department’s representative on the Committee on Graduate Education, which gave me a reason to hang out in the dean’s office. He was on the board of the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, and suggested it might be a nice place to work, right on the beach with no blizzards. I put it on my list. Grey Silver Shadow When the time came to find a real job, I was going out to UCLA to interview for a faculty position, and I added RAND to the schedule. UCLA JWPR007-Lindsey 14 May 7, 2007 16:12 h ow i b e cam e a quant told me to stay in the Holiday Inn on Wilshire Boulevard, rent a car, and come out in February of 1977.

Formerly he was first vice president of the Prudential Insurance Company of America, where he served as senior managing director of a quantitative equity management affiliate of the Prudential Asset Management Company and managing director of the discretionary asset allocation unit. Prior to that, he was on the finance faculty of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and consulted to the Rand Corporation. Dr. Jacobs has a BA from Columbia College, an MS in Operations Research and Computer Science from Columbia University’s School of Engineering and Applied Science, an MSIA from Carnegie Mellon University’s Graduate School of Industrial Administration, and an MA in Applied Economics and a PhD in Finance from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He is an associate editor of The Journal of Trading and on the Advisory Board of The Journal of Portfolio Management.

Kritzman received an MBA in business at New York University. David Leinweber is the founder of two pioneering financial technology firms. Clients at his consulting and software development business include some of the world’s largest investment managers and hedge funds. These tasks involve trading systems and automated analysis of textual and Internet information sources. All build on his history of innovation in financial technology. At the RAND Corporation, he directed research on real-time applications of artificial intelligence that led to the founding of Integrated Analytics Corporation. IAC was acquired by the Investment Technology Group, (NYSE:ITG) and, with the addition of electronic order execution, its product became QuantEx, an electronic execution system still in use for millions of institutional equity transactions daily. Large institutions concerned with controlling transactions costs and proprietary traders found them particularly valuable.


The Dream Machine: J.C.R. Licklider and the Revolution That Made Computing Personal by M. Mitchell Waldrop

Ada Lovelace, air freight, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Apple II, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bill Duvall, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Byte Shop, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Donald Davies, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, experimental subject, fault tolerance, Frederick Winslow Taylor, friendly fire, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, Haight Ashbury, Howard Rheingold, information retrieval, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Rulifson, John von Neumann, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, pink-collar, popular electronics, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Robert Metcalfe, Silicon Valley, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, Turing machine, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Von Neumann architecture, Wiener process, zero-sum game

Bigelow, meanwhile, was turning these ideas into working hardware, with far-reaching results. Because it was the first true stored-program computer-and because the Pentagon wanted replicas of its own for nuclear-weapons calculations- the Institute for Advanced Study's machine would serve as the model for first- generation computers constructed during the 1950s at the University of Illinois, the RAND Corporation, IBM, and the national laboratories at Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, and Argonne. Software. By 1947, von Neumann and Goldstine had laid the foundations for software engineering with the first installment of "Planning and Coding Prob- lems for an Electronic Computing Instrument," a report that they would pub- lish in three parts over the next year and that by default would become the standard textbook for the whole first generation of programmers.

Not only did he see it as the kind of adolescent saber-rattling that was going to get us all incinerated, but he felt that his old friend had come to personify a dangerously seductive brand of intellectual hubris. Through the use of innovative analytical tools such NEW KINDS OF PEOPLE 91 as von Neumann's game theory, went the argument-an argument that was al- ready being embraced by strategic thinkers in the government and in newly formed think tanks such as the RAND Corporation-the nuclear-arms race could be rationalized, mathematized, reasoned about, and managed. Wiener begged to differ. He certainly didn't favor ilTationality in human af- fairs; the world, he felt, had already heard entirely too much about the "triumph of the will" from Hitler and his ilk. But he did want to see this rising generation of mathematical Cold Warriors be a little less naive about the uncertainties of the world.

First, MIT had no desire to put so many people on the Lincoln Lab payroll for a single project. One day the air-defense programming would be finished, and then what would they do? IBM had much the same reaction, as did Bell Labs, another subcontractor. The upshot was that the programming respon- THE FREEDOM TO MAKE MISTAKES 119 sibility, along with many of the original Lincoln Lab programmers, were eventu- ally transferred to Santa Monica and the RAND Corporation's system develop- ment division, which in December 1956 would break away and become the independent Systems Development Corporation. Second, in the early 1950s there probably were no more than a few thousand programmers in the whole country. So the SAGE project soon found itself in the business of mass education. Special programming courses were set up at MIT, IBM, and RAND, and people from every walk of life were invited to en- roll.


pages: 257 words: 94,168

Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths by Steven M. Gorelick

California gold rush, carbon footprint, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, income per capita, invention of the telephone, meta analysis, meta-analysis, North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, statistical model, Thomas Malthus

As an energy source, the main drawback of oil shale is that it is a very low-energy-content fuel. It contains about one-eighth the energy of conventional oil on an energy-per-ton basis (5 million British thermal units (BTU) per ton versus almost 40 million BTU per ton in crude oil). It is not economic to exploit oil shales that would generate less than about 15 gallons of oil per ton. A 2005 study by the Rand Corporation concluded that oil prices would have to remain above $70 to $95 (2005$) per barrel for the firstgeneration mining and surface retorting plants to be profitable using existing technology. Such an oil price was surpassed in 2008, but it remains uncertain that such a price would be sustained in the future to justify commercial investment in large-scale recovery. Earlier Rand studies suggested that after 0.5 billion barrels were produced, the technology would improve, production costs would drop by 50 percent, and the oil shale resource would be profitable at $35 to $48 per barrel (2005$).

Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, www.capp.ca/default.asp? V_DOC_ID=603 158. Park, G. (2008). “Alberta oil sands frenzy fizzling,” Petroleum News, 13(51), December 21, 2008: 8; “Study sees pause in oil sands output growth,” Oil and Gas Journal, February 16, 2009: 5. 159. Rand Report (2005). Bartis, J. T., T. LaTourrette, L. Dixon, D. J. Peterson, and G. Cecchine (2005). Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issues, Rand Corporation, Monograph series. 160. Ibid. 161. Ibid. 162. Biglarbigi, K., H. Mohan, M. Carolus, and J. Killen (2009). “Analytic approach estimates oil shale development economics,” Oil and Gas Journal, February 2, 2009: 48–53. 163. “Israel presses for oil from shale,” Business Week, July 5, 2006. 164. Dyni, J. R. (2003). “Geology and resources of some world oil-shale deposits,” Oil Shale, 20(3): 193–252. 165.

., 126 237 SEC rules, 69, 125–6 status in 2008, 31–2 oil resource pyramids, 160–5 global, 163–5 US, 161–2 oil sands Canada, 27, 29, 122, 132, 136, 168–70 US, 162, 168 oil shale global, 172–3 US, 162, 170–2 oil shocks, 155–6 oil, unconventional, 27, 165–75 oil-use efficiency see efficiency oil-use intensity, 148–52 oil wells, 96–7 oil window, 170 Oklahoma, 62 OPEC, 21, 23–6 dependence on, 36–7, 208 members, 23 price control, 24–6, 218 price rises in 1970s, 63–4 production, 24–5, 118, 218 quotas, 24, 67 reserves, 23 estimates, 67–8, 124–5 OPEC Basket, 24, 41, 56 Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, see OAPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, see OPEC Orimulsion, 167 Orinoco heavy-oil belt, 167 overshoot and collapse, 60 palm oil, 212–13 panic, see oil crises patent activity, 222 PDVSA, 168 peak oil, 3–4 effects, 62 Hubbert predictions, 7–9, 11–12 238 Index peak oil (cont’d ) modern proponents, 124 oil company views, 16 oil discovery volume and, 73–4 oil endowment and, 68–9 US Department of Energy predictions, 81 peanut oil, 212 Pennsylvania, 1, 20, 160, 176 Peru, oil reserves, 144 petroleum composition, 18–19 definition, 17 refinement, 18–19 unconventional, 27 see also gasoline and oil petroleum endowment, 178–9 Petroleum Producers Association, 20 petroleum products, from barrel of oil, 37–8 Petroleum Week, 88 placer deposits, 156 plankton, 17 platinum, 106 political stability, 217, 221 population growth, 5, 58–61, 111 Porter, Edward, 114 predictions, 2, 4–13, 60–3, 87–93, 95–99, 123–4, 128, 130, 134–5, 223 price elasticity of demand, 45, 56 price gouging, 48–9 PricewaterhouseCoopers, 217 primary recovery, 162 private investment, 144 processing gain, 38, 39 producer rebound, 200 production costs, 23, 42–3, 133–4, 142 production decline, scarcity and, 98–103 profitable oil extraction prices, 113–4 Prudhoe Bay oil field, 128 Qatar, 23, 74, 176 Rand Corporation, 172 reasonable certainty, 125–6 rebound, 199–200 recession, 25, 154–5 recovery factor, definition, 18 remaining reserves, 28 renewable energy resources, 216 renewable resources, 98–100, 102 Requa, Mark L., 63 research and development spending, 222 reserve additions, 127, 130, 136–7 reserve base, 184 reserve growth, 28, 127, 134–6 reserves booking, 125–6 definition, 17, 122 private investment and, 144 revisions based on backdating, 136 see also gold reserves; natural gas reserves; oil reserves resource endowment, 6 resource pyramid, 156–73 resource substitution, 107–8, 207 resources definition, 17, 122 non-renewable, 100–3 renewable, 98–100, 102 reserves vs., 126 rock bit, 223 Royal Dutch Shell in-situ recovery method, 170 oil discoveries, 144 oil reserves, 23, 69, 125–6 Russia heavy oil, 166–7 natural gas, 145 oil production, 32, 144–5 oil reserves, 144 Sasol, 176 Saudi Arabia oil consumption, 74 oil production, 32, 71–2 Index incremental cost, 114 spare capacity, 118 oil reserves, 72 OPEC membership, 23 scarcity, 61, 77–9, 98–116, 186, 196, 219, 222 scarcity rent, 116–18 Science, 2, 5, 65, 90 Scientific American, 106 SEC, 69, 125, 126 SEC Rule (4–10), 125 secondary recovery, 162 security, 12–3, 64, 195, 217–9, 221 Shell see Royal Dutch Shell Shell Canada, 169 Shenhua China Coal Liquefaction Corporation, 177 silver, 106, 108 Simmons, Mathew, 104 Simon-Ehrlich bet, 103–5 Simon, Julian, 103–4 Six Day War (1967), 112–13, 115 Smithsonian Institute, 63 social disintegration, 217 solar power generation, 214 “sour” oil, 40 South Africa, transportation fuels from coal, 176 South America, heavy oil, 167 South Korea, vehicle ownership, 205 South Pars field, 138 soybean oil, 212–13 Spindletop, 160 spot price, 48 St.


Pirates and Emperors, Old and New by Noam Chomsky

American ideology, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, Fall of the Berlin Wall, land reform, liberation theology, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, union organizing, urban planning

Considerably more significant for U.S. policy is Colombia, where the terrible crimes of earlier years mounted sharply in the 1990s, and Colombia became the leading recipient of U.S. arms and training in the hemisphere, in conformity to a consistent pattern. By the decade’s end political murders were running at about ten a day (since perhaps doubled according to Colombian human rights organizations), and the number of displaced people had risen to two million, with some 300,000 more each year, regularly increasing. The State Department and Rand Corporation concur with human rights organizations that some 75–80 percent of the atrocities are attributable to the military and paramilitaries. The latter are so closely linked to the military that Human Rights Watch refers to them as the army’s “sixth division,” alongside the five official divisions. The proportion of atrocities attributed to the six divisions has remained fairly constant through the decade, but with a shift from the military to the paramilitaries as terror has been privatized, a familiar device, employed in recent years by Serbia, Indonesia, and other terror states that seek “plausible deniability” for their crimes.

For the record, “there have been some 18 anti-American terrorist incidents in Western Europe and the Middle East in the three months since the Libyan raid, compared with about 15 during the 31/2 months before it” while “In the world as a whole, the rate of anti-American terrorism looks like being little different from last year,” the Economist observed (while lauding Reagan’s act of courage); and the Rand Corporation’s leading specialist on terrorism noted that terrorist attacks after the raid persisted at about the same level as before.55 Completing the record, on July 3 the FBI released a 41-page report reviewing terrorist incidents within the United States in 1985. Seven were listed, with two people killed. In 1984, there had been 13 terrorist acts. The number has dropped each year since 1982, when 51 terrorist incidents were recorded.56 The FBI report received some coverage.

These included a variety of means to strengthen the authority of the very powerful state to which “conservatives” are deeply committed, among them, sharp increases in military spending designed to enhance the enormous disparity between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Included are the plans to extend the “arms race” into space—a “race” with one competitor only—undermining the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and other international obligations. Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) is only a small component, and even that is understood to be an offensive weapon: “not simply a shield but an enabler of action,” the RAND corporation explained, echoing not only the thoughts but even the words of Chinese authorities, who, realistically, regard it as a weapon directed against them. Strategic analysts realistically describe the program as a means to establish U.S. global “hegemony,” which is what the world needs, they explain, echoing many distinguished predecessors. The far broader programs of militarization of space are explained in high level public documents as the natural next step in expanding state power.


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WikiLeaks and the Age of Transparency by Micah L. Sifry

1960s counterculture, Amazon Web Services, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, Buckminster Fuller, Chelsea Manning, citizen journalism, Climategate, crowdsourcing, Google Earth, Howard Rheingold, Internet Archive, Jacob Appelbaum, John Markoff, Julian Assange, Network effects, RAND corporation, school vouchers, Skype, social web, source of truth, Stewart Brand, web application, WikiLeaks

New funding model for journalism: try doing it for a change.”10 WikiLeaks new level of visibility prompted New York Times reporter Noam Cohen to pose a fascinating question: “What Would Daniel Ellsberg do with the Pentagon Papers today?” Would he have given them to The New York Times and waited for them to be analyzed and published? Or would he just post them online? Back in 1970–71, it had taken Ellsberg, then a high-level analyst with the Rand Corporation, several months to photocopy the ten-thousand-page secret history of America’s war, and months more of efforts to get them published. Ellsberg told Cohen, “As of today, I wouldn’t have waited that long. I would have gotten a scanner and put them on the Internet.” Ellsberg admitted that the government’s effort to stop their publication was useful in garnering public attention; when Nixon’s Justice Department got a court injunction stopping the Times from continuing to publish the papers, Ellsberg passed copies to The Washington Post.

Daniel Ellsberg makes a very similar point in his autobiography Secrets: A Memoir of Vietnam and the Pentagon Papers. Ellsberg was a defense analyst with top security clearances for many years before he decided to leak the Pentagon Papers. He had worked on nuclear war planning policy for the National Security Council before studying Vietnam policy for the Pentagon and State Department. In the fall of 1968, he was working for the Rand Corporation, still with his clearances, and was part of a group tasked by Henry Kissinger—the incoming national security adviser to Presidentelect Richard Nixon—to prepare a study of options for the new president on Vietnam. While presenting that report to Kissinger, he tried to warn of the dangers of relying too much on top secret information. Here’s how he recounts that moment in his book: Kissinger was not rushing to end our conversation that morning, and I had one more message to give him.


pages: 186 words: 49,595

Revolution in the Age of Social Media: The Egyptian Popular Insurrection and the Internet by Linda Herrera

citizen journalism, crowdsourcing, Google Earth, informal economy, Julian Assange, knowledge economy, minimum wage unemployment, Mohammed Bouazizi, moral panic, Nelson Mandela, Occupy movement, RAND corporation, Rosa Parks, Silicon Valley, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, WikiLeaks

Consecrate them with a lofty mission; inflame them with emulation and praise; spread through their ranks the word of fire, the word of inspiration; speak to them of country, of glory, of power, of great memories. The above quote from Italian nationalist Guiseppe Mazzini opens the 2003 report “The Youth Factor: The New Demographics of the Middle East and the Implications for U.S. Policy.” The report, authored by Graham Fuller, formerly of the CIA, US Foreign Service, and RAND Corporation, joined a chorus of voices from the Washington, DC establishment in the post-9/11 and post-Cold War era trumpeting the need to contain and capture the hearts and minds of Arab and Muslim youth through “soft power.” With up to 75 percent of the population of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under thirty-five years old, the young were well placed to act as what Mazzini calls the “apostles for a new religion.”

., 26 Obama, Barack, 2, 42, 83, 106, 148 2008 Presidential Campaign, 36, 40, 119 One Million Voices Against FARC, 35 See also FARC Open Door, 14 Open Source Center, 40 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 7 Othman, Ahmed, 47, 59 Otpor, 33–5 Pedagogy of the Oppressed (Freire), 154 PlayStation, 8, 74 Police Day, 89–90, 96 Policy Planning, 2, 23, 29, 33, 41–2 See also State Department pornography, 4, 9 Port Said, 75 Powell, Colin, 26 al-Qadaseen. See Church of the Two Saints Rabaa al-Adawaya, 137, 140 Radio Sawa, 32 Ramadan, Tariq, 146–7 RAND Corporation, 25 Rebel. See Tamarud Reporters Without Borders, 103–4 Revolution 2.0, 1, 42, 64, 79, 121, 149 See also Ghonim, Wael Ross, Alec, 42–3 Sabahi, Hamdeen, 124 Said, Khaled, 46, 47–101, 107, 108, 110–11, 150–5 January 25th event and, 5, 19 See also “We Are All Khaled Said” saint, 151–5 Saint Avatatas, 11 Sakhr, 7 Sakr, Rehab, 121 Salafi Front, 91–2 satellite dishes, 7, 8–10, 12 Satellite Thief (Harami al-Dish), 9 Saweris, Nagib, 10 Schmidt, Eric, 44 See also Google Serbia, 18, 33–4 Shafik, Ahmed, 120, 122 Sharp, Gene, 35, 88 Sidi Bouzid, 99, 101 silent stand, 65–68, 87–89, 97 el-Sisi, Abdel Fattah, 136–41, 155–6 6th of April Youth Movement, 22–3, 34, 59, 86–7, 107 AYM and, 35, 38, 46 members of, 37, 75, 107, 110, 119 Skype, 35 soft power, 25–7, 156 Spacenet Internet cafe, 47, 49 State Department, 2, 23–4, 28–44, 106, 146–8 Stepka, Matthew, 1 Stone, Biz, 22 See also Twitter Suez, 114 canal, 14 Supreme Constitutional Court, 136 Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), 3, 74, 120 taboos, 12–14, 158 Al Taghrir.


pages: 328 words: 100,381

Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State by Dana Priest, William M. Arkin

airport security, business intelligence, dark matter, drone strike, friendly fire, Google Earth, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, immigration reform, index card, Julian Assange, profit motive, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, WikiLeaks

For this reason, contractors are specifically prohibited from carrying out what the federal regulations call “inherently government functions.” One reason for this is obvious: “Their interest is just not the interest of the government. It’s the interest of their company,” said Bernard Rostker, the Pentagon’s former policy adviser on recruitment matters. Rostker studies government workforce issues at the Rand Corporation. Despite these rules, in Top Secret America, contractors carry out inherently governmental work all the time in every intelligence and counterterrorism agency. What started as a clever temporary fix has turned into a dependency that calls into question whether the federal government is still even able to stand on its own. Consider the following: At the Department of Homeland Security, the number of contractors equals the number of federal employees.

Longoria killed two enemy snipers, helped recapture the escapees, moved wounded Pakistani casualties, and tended to seventeen dead Pakistani soldiers in what the Pentagon called “the bloodiest escape and firefight in Pakistan during Operation Enduring Freedom.” For his efforts, he was awarded the Bronze Star in a private ceremony. In contrast to its successes, which usually went unpublicized, JSOC’s mistakes reverberated around the world. In what the Rand Corporation labeled “the single most serious errant attack of the entire war,” on July 1, 2002, a JSOC-operated AC-130 gunship fired upon and killed at least forty-eight civilians in the small village of Kakarak in the Deh Rawod area of Uruzgan province. The incident took many inside the Pentagon by surprise, a senior air force officer said at the time, as most people had already shifted their attention to preparing for war with Iraq.

The National Security Enterprise (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2011). Bradley Graham. By His Own Rules: The Ambitions, Successes, and Ultimate Failures of Donald Rumsfeld (New York: Public Affairs, 2009). Rebecca Grant. The First 600 Days of Combat: The U.S. Air Force in the Global War on Terrorism (Washington, DC: IRIS Press, 2004). Benjamin S. Lambeth. Air Power Against Terror: America’s Conduct of Operation Enduring Freedom (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 2005). Matt J. Martin (with Charles W. Sasser). Predator: The Remote-Control Air War over Iraq and Afghanistan: A Pilot’s Story (Minneapolis, MN: Zenith Press, 2010). General Richard B. Myers, USAF, Ret. (with Malcolm McConnell). Eyes on the Horizon: Serving on the Front Lines of National Security (New York: Threshold Editions [A Division of Simon & Schuster, Inc.], 2009). Sean Naylor.


pages: 328 words: 96,141

Rocket Billionaires: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and the New Space Race by Tim Fernholz

Amazon Web Services, autonomous vehicles, business climate, Charles Lindbergh, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, Colonization of Mars, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, high net worth, Iridium satellite, Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, low earth orbit, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, minimum viable product, multiplanetary species, mutually assured destruction, new economy, nuclear paranoia, paypal mafia, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, pets.com, planetary scale, private space industry, profit maximization, RAND corporation, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, skunkworks, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, trade route, undersea cable, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, X Prize, Y2K

The regulators declined to take up any of the fledgling space company’s ideas for a fairer deal. Indeed, it had largely written off SpaceX, as the company was popularly known, and anyone else trying to build new rockets in the United States. “Successful new entry into the relevant markets is unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future,” the FTC concluded. A government-mandated study of the launch market published by the RAND Corporation a year later was similarly skeptical: “The evaluation of Falcon 9 at this time presents an unclear picture . . . The lack of launch experience raises questions about the validity of the available launch prices . . . [and] makes an objective evaluation of the actual costs of this new vehicle extremely difficult.” Now, these evaluators weren’t necessarily being unfair. For starters, no new company had ever broken into the orbital launch market.

Decker, General Accounting Office, letter to Senate Subcommittee on Strategic Forces (“Defense Space Activities: Continuation of Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle Program’s Progress to Date Subject to Some Uncertainty”), GAO-04-778R, June 4, 2004. “statements or projections”: Decker, “Defense Space Activities.” “or face extinction”: Decker, “Defense Space Activities.” “supplier readiness, and transportation”: Forrest McCartney et al., National Security Space Launch Report (Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation, 2006), 30. whole fracas to rest: David Bowermaster, “Boeing Probe Intensifies over Secret Lockheed Papers,” Seattle Times, January 9, 2005. “support the loss of competition”: Kenneth Krieg, Letter to Federal Trade Commission Chairman Deborah Majoras, August 15, 2006. surpass $1 billion in 2018: Department of Defense Fiscal Year (FY) 2018 Budget Estimates, Space Procurement, Air Force, May 2017

See also McDonnell Douglas NASA space taxi program bids, 112–13 reusable (X-15), 16, 215–16 SpaceX challenges, 78, 107 Orbital Sciences Corporation, 59, 206–7, 228 Antares, 121, 206–7, 228 Antares explosion, 206–8 Cygnus, 121, 206, 208 NASA space taxi program, 121, 137 Orlando Sentinel, 142 P; PayPal, 2, 18, 45, 66 Pegasus, 235 Peregrine vehicle, 242 Pettit, Donald, 149, 157–58, 164 PICA-X, 156 Planetary Resources, 56 Planetary Society, 124 Powell, Colin, 75 Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne, 140 Putin, Vladimir, 10, 181, 183, 185 Q; Qualcomm, 51, 234 R; Ramon, Ilan, 73 RAND Corporation, 38 Raptor engine, 243–44 Rasky, Dan, 156 RD-180 (Russian engine), 59, 182, 190 injunction on imports, 187–88 McCain bill banning imports, 190 Reaction Research Society, 51, 63 Reagan, Ronald, 19, 53 Red Mars (Robinson), 46 Ressi, Adeo, 59 reusable rockets, 195–96, 241, 250. See also Falcon 9; New Shepard Richards, Bob, 242 Robert J. Collier Award, 218 Robinson, Kim Stanley, 46 Rocketdyne, 100, 131.


pages: 370 words: 97,138

Beyond: Our Future in Space by Chris Impey

3D printing, Admiral Zheng, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, AltaVista, Berlin Wall, Buckminster Fuller, butterfly effect, California gold rush, carbon-based life, Charles Lindbergh, Colonization of Mars, cosmic abundance, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, discovery of DNA, Doomsday Clock, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Eratosthenes, Haight Ashbury, Hyperloop, I think there is a world market for maybe five computers, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Johannes Kepler, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, life extension, low earth orbit, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mars Rover, mutually assured destruction, Oculus Rift, operation paperclip, out of africa, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, phenotype, private space industry, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Rubik’s Cube, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Searching for Interstellar Communications, Silicon Valley, skunkworks, Skype, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, supervolcano, technological singularity, telepresence, telerobotics, the medium is the message, the scientific method, theory of mind, There's no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home - Ken Olsen, wikimedia commons, X Prize, Yogi Berra

An antimatter engine has a performance gain of a factor of a hundred, and the fuel requirement drops to about 100,000 kilograms or ten railway tankers of propellant to get there in less than a millennium. These numbers double because the spacecraft will need fuel to decelerate when it reaches its destination. Gathering this much antimatter will be impossible for the foreseeable future. At the moment, it would cost $100 billon just to create one milligram of antimatter.11 For those wanting to try this at home—the calculation, not actually building an interstellar rocket—the RAND Corporation used to sell the nifty (and very retro) Rocket Performance Calculator, dating from 1958.12 This circular slide rule incorporates the rocket equation and it can still be found occasionally on eBay, making for a great conversation piece. Figure 50. NASA’s version of the Project Orion concept, where pulsed nuclear fusion projects the power. The design combines high thrust and high exhaust velocity.

University of California Los Alamos Lab, unclassified document archived at http://www.webcitation.org/5uzTHJfF7. For more recent technical design work, see “Physics of Rocket Systems with Separated Rockets and Propellant” by A. Zuppero 2010, online at http://neofuel.com/optimum/. 11. “Reaching for the Stars: Scientists Examine Using Antimatter and Fusion to Propel Future Spacecraft,” April 1999, NASA, online at http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/1999/prop12apr99_1/. 12. The Rand Corporation, online at http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM2300.html. 13. “Galactic Matter and Interstellar Flight” by R. W. Bussard 1960. Astronautica Acta, vol. 6, pp. 179–94. 14. “Roundtrip Interstellar Travel Using Laser-Pushed Lightsails” by R. L. Forward 1984. Journal of Spacecraft, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 187–95. 15. “Magnetic Sails and Interstellar Travel” by D. G. Andrews and R. Zubrin 1988.

., 239 Los Angeles Times, 71 Losing My Virginity (Branson), 86, 87 Louis IX, king of France, 23 Louis XVI, king of France, 68 Lovelock, James, 286 Lowell, Percival, 163–64 Lucian of Samosata, 20 Lucretius, 18–19 Luna program, 50–51 Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, 156 Lunokhod rover, 143 Lynx rocket plane, 101 M5 fiber, 161 McAuliffe, Christa, 55, 74 Mack 3 Blackbird, 69 McKay, Chris, 173 McLellan, William, 283 magnetic implants, 207 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), 190 magnetic sails, 186, 223 magnitude of time, 248–50, 249 Manhattan Project, 36, 221 Manifest Destiny, applied to space, 146–47, 199 Manned Habitat Unit, 169 many worlds concept, 17–20, 17, 49, 267 Mao Zedong, 141 Marconi, Guglielmo, 237 Mariner 2, 51 Mariner 4, 164 Marino, Lori, 190 Marriott hotels, 145 Mars, 28, 237, 270 challenges of travel to, 166–70 distance from Earth to, 50, 148, 166 Earth compared to, 171–72, 216 establishing a colony on, 166–71, 169, 192, 195, 200–201, 203, 214, 248 evidence of water on, 124–25, 163–66, 165, 173 fly-bys of, 51, 170 imaginative perceptions of, 163–65 latency on, 178 map of, 163 obstacles to exploration of, 66–67, 148 one-way journey to, 166, 170–71, 200 as potentially habitable, 124–25, 163, 165–66, 171, 172–74, 234, 278 privately funded missions to, 170–71 probes to, 40, 51, 52, 164–65, 176, 246 projected exploration of, 94–98, 101, 104, 115, 119, 157, 161, 163–74, 178, 181, 182 property rights on, 145, 198–99 sex and reproduction on, 200 simulated journey to, 169–70 soil of, 170 staging points for, 161 terraforming of, 172–74, 182, 216, 227 tests for life on, 52 Mars Direct, 169 Mars500 mission, 169 Mars One, 170–71, 198–201 Mars Society, 166 Mars 3 lander, 51 Masai people, 120 Massachusetts General Hospital, 250 Masson-Zwaan, Tanja, 199 mathematics, 19 as universal language, 236–37 Matrix, The, 260 matter, manipulation of, 258 matter-antimatter annihilation, 220, 220, 221–22 Mavroidis, Constantinos, 182 Max-Q (maximum aerodynamic stress), 46 Maxwell, James Clerk, 183 Mayor, Michel, 126–28, 133 medicine: challenges and innovation in, 92–93, 263 cyborgs in, 205 medicine (continued) as lacking in space, 200 in life extension, 259 nanotechnology in, 225, 259 robots in, 180, 181, 182, 205 mediocrity, principle of, 261 Mendez, Abel, 278 mental models, 13–17, 18–19 Mercury: orbit of, 126, 215 property rights on, 145 as uninhabitable, 124 mercury poisoning, 118 Mercury program, 41, 42, 71, 74, 272 meta-intelligence, 94 meteorites, 152, 160, 160, 164, 195 methane, 52–53, 125, 132, 278 as biomarker, 217–18 methanogens, 217 “Method of Reaching Extreme Altitudes, A” (Goddard), 30, 31 Methuselah, 131 mice, in scientific research, 48–49, 250–51 microbes, microbial life, 97–98, 173, 174, 217, 241, 246, 286 habitable environments for, 122–25, 165–66, 186 microcephaly, 203 microgravity, 115 microsatellites, 90 Microsoft, 84, 188 microwaves: beaming of, 223–24 signals, 187 Microwave Sciences, 223 Middle East, population dispersion into, 8, 118 migration: early human population dispersion through, 5–9, 9, 15, 19 motivation for, 9–12, 11 military: covert projects of, 69–72 Eisenhower’s caveat about, 79 in Internet development, 77, 78–79 nanotechnology in, 180–81, 225 in rocket development, 30, 32–39, 55–56, 71 in space programs, 73, 76, 79, 144, 153 Milky Way galaxy, 227, 240, 253, 263, 270 ancient Greek concept of, 18 Drake equation for detectable life in, 188, 233–35 Earth-like exoplanets in, 129–33, 233, 291 formation and age of, 235 size of, 242 Millis, Marc, 290 mind control, 245 mind uploading, 259 miniaturization, see nanotechnology minimum viable population, 201, 251 mining: of asteroids, 155–56, 182, 214 of Enceladus, 227 on Moon, 214 by robots, 178, 182 Minsky, Marvin, 177, 179 MirCorp, 75 mirrors, 173 Mir Space Station, 75, 115, 167–68 Miss Baker (monkey), 47–48, 48 Mission Control, 43, 100, 158, 269 MIT, 38, 77, 90, 141, 226, 257 mitochondrial DNA, 6, 9 Mittelwerk factory, 33, 35 Mojave Desert, 71, 82, 83 population adaptation to heat in, 118–19 molecules, in nanotechnology, 151 Mongols, 23, 24 monkeys, in space research, 47–48, 48 Montgolfier brothers, 68 Moon: age of, 50 ancient Greek concept of, 18 in asteroid capture, 156 distance from Earth to, 49–50, 150, 166, 267 first animals on, 49 first man on, 71, 158 latency on, 178 lunar base proposed for, 157–63, 158, 160, 195, 214, 248 manned landings on, 44–45, 49–50, 54, 56, 63, 71, 84, 99, 104, 108, 143, 157, 158, 176, 219, 270, 272 obstacles to exploration of, 66 orbit of, 25 probes to, 40, 51, 129, 140, 143 projected missions to, 92, 143, 157–63, 166, 214, 275 property rights on, 145–47, 198–99 proposed commercial flights to, 102 in science fiction, 20, 26 soil of, 159, 160, 162 as staging point for Mars, 161 staging points for, 148 telescopic views of, 31, 49–50 as uninhabitable, 124, 166 US commitment to reach, 41–45 Moon Treaty (1979), 146 Moon Treaty, UN (1984), 279 Moore, John, 203 Moravec, 259–60 Morgan, Barbara, 74 Morrison, Philip, 187, 239 Mosaic web browser, 79 Moses, 148 motion, Newton’s laws of, 25, 67–68 multistage rockets, 29 multiverse, 252–57, 255 Musk, Elon, 94–98, 97, 100–101, 112–13, 148, 205 mutation, 6–7 cosmic rays and, 204 7R, 10–12, 11, 15 mutually assured destruction, 42 Mylar, 184, 225 N1/L3 rocket, 44, 54 nanobots, 179–82, 181, 224–28 NanoSail-D, 184, 185 nanosponges, 180 nanotechnology, 151–52, 179–82, 208, 214, 245, 280, 283 projected future of, 257–59 see also nanobots National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 83, 90, 96, 97–98, 114, 116–17, 128, 144, 153, 156, 176, 178, 182, 184–85, 185, 195, 200, 205, 206, 216, 224, 226, 271, 275, 280, 290 and Air Force, 71 artistic depiction of space colonies by, 196, 196 budget of, 39, 42, 43, 49, 54, 64, 75, 99, 104, 140, 144, 158, 166, 188, 238, 270, 272, 284 cut back of, 45, 49, 54, 188 formation of, 38–39, 145, 269 private and commercial collaboration with, 99–102, 104 revival of, 103–5 space program of, 51, 55–56, 71–76, 92, 157–58, 285–86 stagnation of, 63–67, 141, 147, 166 National Geographic Society, 7, 265 National Radio Astronomy Observatory, 187–88 National Science Foundation (NSF), 78–79 Native Americans, 118 naturalness, 256 natural selection, 6, 16, 123, 164, 251, 291 Nature, 187 Naval Research lab, 37 Navy, US: Bureau of Aeronautics, 30 in rocket development, 36–37 Nayr, Ernst, 238 Nazis, 48 Propaganda Ministry of, 32 von Braun and, 32–34, 141, 269 NBC, 75 Nedelin, Mitrofan, 43 “needle in a haystack” problem, 188–89, 242–43 “Nell” (rocket), 29 Neptune, 127, 131, 225 as uninhabitable, 125 Nergal, 163 Netscape, 80 New Mexico, 88, 88, 105 Newton, Isaac, 24–25, 25, 30, 67–68, 110, 262, 267 New York Times, 30, 94 Nicholas, Henry, 214 Niven, Larry, 198, 253 Nixon, Richard, 108, 167 Nobel Prize, 126, 180, 214 nomad planets, 128 Noonan, James, 266 nuclear fission, 220, 220, 221 nuclear fusion, 110, 161–62, 220, 221, 221, 222 nuclear reactors, 224 nuclear weapons, 36, 42, 78, 129, 146, 197–98, 222, 234–35, 244, 245, 246, 286 Nuremberg Chronicles, 17 Nyberg, Karen, 200 Obama, Barack, 104 Oberth, Hermann, 28, 31–32, 36, 268 oceans: acidification of, 195 sealed ecosystem proposed for, 197 Oculus Rift, 176 Ohio, astronauts from, 74 Okuda, Michael, 228 Olsen, Ken, 213 100 Year Starship project, 224 100 Year Starship Symposium, 229 101955 Bennu (asteroid), 156 O’Neill, Gerard, 196, 251–52 Opportunity rover, 165 optical SETI, 190, 243 Orbital Sciences Corporation, 100–101, 275 orbits: concept of, 25 geostationary, 149–50, 150 legislation on, 146 low Earth, 49, 54, 63, 70–71, 70, 74–75, 97, 100, 110, 113–14, 151, 155, 184 manned, 40–41, 141–42 staging points from, 148 orcas, 190 Orion spacecraft, 104 Orteig, Raymond, 90 Orteig Prize, 90–91 Orwell, George, 35 OSIRIS-REx, 156 Outer Space Treaty (1967), 145–47, 198–99 “Out of the Cradle, Endlessly Rocking” (Clarke), 201 oxygen, 156, 159, 161, 170, 172, 173–74, 182, 193–95, 214 Oymyakon, Siberia, population adaptation to cold in, 119–20 ozone, as biomarker, 217 Pacific Ocean, 9, 224 Pac-Man, 175 Page, Larry, 92 Paine, Thomas, 167 Pale Blue Dot (Sagan), 121 “Pale Blue Dot,” Earth as, 53, 118–22, 121, 130 Paperclip, Operation, 141 parabolic flight, 93 paradox, as term, 241 Paratrechina longicornis (crazy ant), 193 Parkinson’s disease, 202–3 particle physics, standard model of, 256 Pascal, Blaise, 120 Pauley, Phil, 196–97 PayPal, 95, 97 Pensées (Pascal), 120 People’s Daily, 162 People’s Liberation Army, 144 Pericles, 18 Pettit, Don, 100, 273 phenotype, 6 philanthropy, 95 PhoneSat, 185 photons, 183, 186 in teleportation, 229, 230, 231 photosynthesis, as biomarker, 217 pigs, 250 Pinker, Steven, 16 Pioneer probes, 50, 51–52 piracy, 24 Pitcairn Island, 202 planetary engineering, 172 Planetary Resources, 156 planetary science, 51–52, 176 Planetary Society, 184 planets: exploration of, 49–53 formation of, 156 plate techtonics, 132, 241 play, imagination in, 10, 14 pluralism, 17–20, 17, 49 plutonium, 66 poetry, space, 272–73 politics, space exploration and, 63–64, 104, 141, 214, 238 Polyakov, Valeri, 115, 167–68 population bottleneck, 201–2, 287 Poynter, Jane, 193 Princess of Mars, A (Burroughs), 164 Principia (Newton), 25 Project Orion, 221, 221 Project Ozma, 187–88, 237, 253 prokaryotes, 172 property rights, in space, 145–47, 198 Proton rockets, 65, 113 proton scoop, 222–23 Proxmire, William, 238 Puerto Rico, 239, 243 pulsar, 131 Pythagorean Theorem, 238 Qian Xuesen, 141 Qi Jiguang, 24 Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize, 92 quantum entanglement, 230–32, 230 quantum genesis, 255 quantum mechanics, 258 quantum teleportation, 230–32, 230 quantum theory, 189 qubits, 230 Queloz, Didier, 126–28, 133 R-7 rocket, 37 R-16 rocket, 43 radiation, infrared, 109, 253–54, 254 radioactivity, as energy source, 124, 181 radio waves, 66, 187, 189, 242 ramjets, 222–23 RAND Corporation, 222 Rare Earth hypothesis, 241 RCS Energia, 106 RD-180 engine, 72 Reagan, Ronald, administration of, 167, 271 reality TV, 75, 171, 214, 282 “Realm of Fear,” 229 reasoning, human capacity for, 13–17, 18–19 red dwarfs, 131 Red Mars (Stanley), 174 Red Scare, 141 Redstone rocket, 36–37, 71 reindeer, 119–20 remote sensing, 175–91, 224 RepRap Project, 227 reproduction, sexual, 6, 172 Ride, Sally, 74 “Right Stuff,” as term, 71, 114 Right Stuff, The (Wolfe), 272 Ringworld series (Niven), 253 risk: as basic to human nature, 9, 262 genetic factor in, 10–12 of living on Mars, 167–70 in pushing human limits, 120 of space tourism, 102, 105–9, 155 of space travel, 42–43, 55–56, 56, 106–9, 152–53 Robinson, Kim Stanley, 174 robonaut project, 179 robots, robotics: as aids to humans, 249, 250 in asteroid redirection, 104 commercial, 178 ethical issues of, 179 nanotechnology in, 179–82, 181 remote control of, 177–78 remote sensing through, 176 self-assembly and self-replication by, 226–28, 258, 259 in spacecraft, 50, 100, 100 space exploration by, 53–57, 66, 98, 133, 161, 177–79, 179, 208, 224–28 see also cyborgs; nanobots Rocketdyne, 112 rocket equation, 27, 53, 72–73, 110–11, 111, 148, 220, 268 rocket fuel, 110–13, 148, 156, 159, 161 comparison of efficiency of, 219–24 Rocket Performance Calculator, 222 rockets: alternatives to, 148–53 “bible” of, 267 challenges in launching of, 43–44, 46–49, 106, 107, 111–12, 148 comparison of US and Soviet, 44 cost of, 112–13, 113 developing technology of, 21–39, 43, 101, 103, 112–13, 183, 262 fuel for, 110–13, 148, 156, 159, 161, 220–21 launched from planes, 84 liquid-fueled, 28–29, 29 physics and function of, 110–14 proposed energy technologies for, 220–24 reusable, 101, 103, 111, 112, 113 solar sails compared to, 183 as term, 23 visionaries in development of, 26–30, 94 in warfare, 22–24, 30, 32–34 see also specific rockets “Rockets to the Planets in Space, The” (Oberth), 28 Rogers Commission, 271 Rohrabacher, Dana, 284 Rome, ancient, 18, 67, 163 Rovekamp, Roger, 207 rovers, 66–67, 92, 125, 140, 143, 158, 165, 167 nanotechnology in, 181–82 remote sensing through, 176 Rozier, Jean-François de, 68 RP-1 kerosine, 110 RS-25 rocket, 112 Russia, 23, 26–27, 149, 178 space program of, 37, 65–66, 72, 75, 84, 91, 104, 106, 107–8, 113, 114, 140, 143, 168, 184, 195, 200, 271 space tourism by, 75, 102 tensions between US and, 72 see also Soviet Union Russian Revolution, 27, 47 Russian Space Agency, 102 Rutan, Burt, 72, 82–86, 85, 88, 88, 89, 91, 97–98, 105–6, 214 Rutan, Dick, 83–84 Rutan Aircraft Factory, 83 Saberhagen, Fred, 177, 259 Sagan, Carl, 53, 121–22, 121, 176–77, 184, 198, 234–35, 238, 240 Sahakian, Barbara, 98 Sahara Desert, 238 sails: solar, 183–86, 185 wind-driven, 67–68, 183, 262 Salyut space station, 54, 108 satellites: artificial Earth, 36–39, 37, 40, 65, 71, 106 commercial, 96, 105 communications, 101, 142, 153 in energy capture, 253 geostationary, 149 GPS, 144 launching of, 154, 154 miniature, 90, 184–85 Saturn: moon of, 125, 227 probes to, 52–53 as uninhabitable, 125 Saturn V rocket, 43, 44, 46, 54, 83, 104, 111, 113, 113, 166 Scaled Composites, 83, 89 science fiction, 192, 196, 222, 223, 239, 250, 253 aliens in, 186–87 in film, 28, 204 Mars in, 164, 174 roots of, 20 technologies of, 228–32, 259 see also specific authors and works scientific method, 213 Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI), 187–90, 234, 239, 254 evolution and technology of, 237–39, 242–43, 242 lack of signals detected by, 236–37, 240–44 new paradigms for, 258 “Searching for Interstellar Communications” (Cocconi and Morrison), 187 sea travel: early human migration through, 8, 9 exploration by, 109, 262 propulsion in, 67–68 self-replication, 226–28, 258, 259 Senate, US, Armed Services Preparedness Committee of, 39 SETI Institute, 188 78–6 (pig), 250 sex: promiscuous, 12 in reproduction, 6, 172 in space, 200, 214 Shackleton Energy Company, 161 Shane, Scott, 98 Shatner, William, 88–89 Shelley, Mary, 206 Shenlong (“Divine Dragon”), 145 Shenzhou 10, 142–43 Shepard, Alan, 41, 84 Shostak, Seth, 243 Siberia, 65, 119–20, 238 population dispersion into, 8, 118, 218 Sidereal Messenger, The (Galileo), 270 Siemienowicz, Kazimierz, 267 Simonyi, Charles, 75 Sims, 175 simulation: infinite regression in, 261 living in, 257–62 simulation hypothesis, 261 Sinatra, Frank, 45 singularity, 207 in origin of cosmos, 255 and simulation, 257–62 technological, 258–59 Singularity University, 94, 259 Skylab space station, 54, 116 Skype video, 176 smart motes, 181, 225 smartphones, 92, 185 Smithsonian Institution, 30, 81 Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum, 85, 91, 271 Snow Crash (Stephenson), 103 Snowden, Edward, 178 social media, 195 Sojourner rover, 165 SolarCity, 96–97 solar flares, 167 solar power, 96, 181, 183–86 solar sails, solar sailing, 183–86, 185, 223, 225, 227 Solar System: discovery of first planet beyond, 126–27 edge of, 50, 53, 121 formation of, 156 habitability potential in, 122, 124–26 latency variations in, 178 probes into, 51–52, 66, 177, 185–86, 208, 270 projected travel within, 248–49, 263 property rights in, 145–47, 198 worlds beyond, 126–29, 156, 208, 215, 250, 263 solar wind, 162, 223 sound barrier, breaking of, 69, 71 South America, 11, 202, 218 Soviet Union, 30, 34, 37, 141 fall of, 47, 65, 75, 197, 271–72 rocket development in, 35–39 space program failures and losses of, 43, 47, 50–51, 54, 269 space program of, 37–39, 40–43, 141, 149, 237, 271 Soyuz spacecraft, 43, 55, 75, 84, 91, 102, 106, 113, 143 crash of, 107–8 space: civilians in, 55, 74 civilian vs. military control of, 37–39, 69–71, 79, 153 commercialization of, 55, 63, 73–76, 79–80, 88–89, 92, 97, 99–109, 100, 110, 147, 153–56, 154, 199, 214, 249, 275 debris in, 144, 152 first American in, 41 first man in, 40–41, 41 first women in, 40, 74 as infinite, 18, 19, 22 as inhospitable to human beings, 53–54, 114–17, 121 legislation on, 39, 78, 90, 144, 145–47, 198–200 living in, 192–208 “living off the land” in, 166, 200 peaceful exploration of, 39 potential for human habitabilty in, 123 prototype for sealed ecosystem in, 192–97 Space Act (1958), 39, 90 Space Adventures, 102, 275 space colonization: challenges of, 197–201 cyborgs in, 204–8 evolutionary diversion in, 201–4 legal issues in, 198–200 of Mars, 166–71, 169, 192, 195, 203 off-Earth human beings in, 215, 250–51 prototype experiments for, 192–97 space elevators, 27, 148–53, 150, 160–61, 185, 280 “Space Exploration via Telepresence,” 178 Spaceflight Society, 28 space hotels, 102–3 Space Launch System (SLS), 104 space mining, 155–56, 161–62 “Space Oddity,” 142 spaceplanes, 71–72, 85, 144 Spaceport America, 1–6, 105 Space Race, 35–39, 37, 40–43, 50, 55, 139 SpaceShipOne, 72, 85, 85, 88–89, 88, 91 SpaceShipTwo, 88, 101, 105 Space Shuttle, 45, 46, 49, 64, 72, 84, 85, 111–13, 112, 159, 167, 194, 219–20, 222, 275 disasters of, 55–56, 56, 74–75, 107, 111–13 final flight of, 271 limitations of, 55–56, 64–65 as reusable vehicle, 54–55 space sickness, 114 spacesuits, 89, 182, 195–96 space-time, 255, 255 manipulation of, 258 space tourism, 63, 73, 75–76, 79–80, 88–89, 91, 101–3, 154, 170, 214 celebrities in, 88, 101–2 revenue from, 154–55, 155 risks of, 102, 105–9, 155 rules for, 105 space travel: beyond Solar System, see interstellar travel bureaucracy of, 105–10, 271 cost of, 39, 42, 45, 49, 54, 55, 66, 75, 81–82, 91, 112–14, 113, 139–49, 153, 155–56, 158–59, 161, 166, 179, 183, 198, 214, 217, 222, 224–26, 252, 270, 275, 284 early attempts at, 21–22, 22 effect of rocket equation in, see rocket equation entrepreneurs of, 81–98 erroneous predictions about, 214 failures and disasters in, 21–22, 22, 38, 43, 47, 50–51, 54–56, 56, 63–64, 68, 72, 74–75, 101, 102, 107, 142, 184, 269, 271, 275 fatality rate of, 107–9 fictional vignettes of, 1–4, 59–62, 135–38, 209–12 Internet compared to, 76–80, 77, 80 life extension for, 250–51 lifetimes lived in, 251 living conditions in, 114–17 new business model for, 99–105 Newton’s theories as basis of, 25 obstacles to, 21, 63, 66–67, 105–109 space travel (continued) as part of simulation, 261–62 public engagement in, 45, 73, 85, 93, 162, 177, 217 remote sensing vs., 175–91 risks of, 43–44, 83, 89, 93, 105–9 speculation on future of, 76–80, 133, 213–32, 248–52 suborbital, 84 telescopic observation vs., 49–50 visionaries of, 26–39, 80, 94, 109 SpaceX, 96, 97, 100–103, 113–14, 275 SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, 96, 100, 100, 102, 170 special theory of relativity, 228, 231 specific impulse, 220 spectroscopy, 127, 165, 176 spectrum analyzer, 237 Speer, Albert, 34 Spielberg, Steven, 238 Spirit of St.


The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future by Michael Levi

addicted to oil, American energy revolution, Berlin Wall, British Empire, business cycle, Carmen Reinhart, crony capitalism, deglobalization, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fixed income, full employment, global supply chain, hiring and firing, hydraulic fracturing, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kenneth Rogoff, manufacturing employment, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea

Natural Resources Defense Council, “Reducing Imported Oil.” 30. Kuuskraa et al., “Improving Domestic Energy Security.” 31. James T. Bartis, Tom LaTourrette, Lloyd Dixon, D. J. Peterson, and Gary Cecchine, Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issues (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2005). Figures were converted from 2005 dollars to 2012 dollars by using CPI. 32. James T. Bartis, Frank Camm, and David S. Ortiz, Producing Liquid Fuels from Coal: Prospects and Policy Issues (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2008). Figures were converted from 2007 dollars to 2012 dollars by using CPI. 33. Bartis et al., Oil Shale Development in the United States. 34. Ibid. 35. Quoted in David Ignatius, “An Economic Boom Ahead?” Washington Post, May 4, 2012. NOTES FOR PAGES 65–78 • 227 36. Jocelyn Fong, “20 Experts Who Say Drilling Won’t Lower Gas Prices,” Media Matters for America, March 22, 2012, http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/ 03/22/20-experts-who-say-drilling-wont-lower-gas-pric/184040. 37.

Oil shale is forebidding. Having broken so many hearts so many times over, it still scares most suitors away. “I know that when something has a bad name,” Jonas says, “people are very hesitant to go back there, even if things have totally changed.” That change is what a few investors are betting on. Modern oil prices and new technology could eventually make oil shale economically viable. In 2005, Jim Bartis at the RAND Corporation led a team to study the ENERGY INDEPENDENCE ON THE HORIZON • 63 issue. They estimated oil shale could become profitable at an oil price between $80 and $110 a barrel, with costs eventually falling over time as the industry gained experience.31 (Three years later, Bartis brought together another group of researchers to look at the prospect of turning coal into liquid fuel; they concluded it could work with prices around sixty to seventy dollars per barrel.)32 But oil shale would take a lot of time to develop at a commercial scale; the RAND teams estimated it would be at least twenty years before production might be brought up to a million barrels a day.


pages: 174 words: 56,405

Machine Translation by Thierry Poibeau

AltaVista, augmented reality, call centre, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, combinatorial explosion, crowdsourcing, easy for humans, difficult for computers, en.wikipedia.org, Google Glasses, information retrieval, Internet of things, Machine translation of "The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak." to Russian and back, natural language processing, Necker cube, Norbert Wiener, RAND corporation, Robert Mercer, Skype, speech recognition, statistical model, technological singularity, Turing test, wikimedia commons

In both cases, the approach consisted in encoding all the necessary information needed for translation in a specific representation model. The interlingua is thus an artificial language that has nothing to do with any existing language, whereas a pivot language uses an existing language (generally English) for this representation. Several research groups (in Washington and at Harvard and the Rand Corporation, for example) made every effort to develop large bilingual dictionaries (Russian-English), either manually or with the help of a statistical analysis of specific corpora, which helped ensure that the most frequent or the most important words would be processed first. Polysemy—the fact that a single word can have several meanings, such as “bank,” which can refer to a financial institution or the side of a river5—was seen from the beginning as one of the major problems to solve.

See Testing phase Professional translator, 10–13, 22, 47, 72, 78–79, 81, 89, 91–92, 109, 121, 199–204, 222, 224, 226–227, 243–246 Programming language, 15, 58, 65, 84 Prolog, 84 Promt, 228, 229, 231, 232, 234 Pronoun resolution, 175 Proper noun, 107, 115, 160, 192 Propositional semantics, 179 Proust, Marcel, 199 Pseudo-root (of a word), 51 Psychology, 8, 76 Public administration. See Governmental administration Punch cards, 46, 73 Quality of machine translation. See Evaluation Query, 238–239, 241 Rand Corporation, 63 Reordering rule, 27, 62, 173 Richens, Richard H., 51, 66, 270 Rule-based machine translation, 25–32, 49–74, 109, 170–174, 176, 190, 194, 217 Russia, 45–46, 232 Russian, 47, 53, 56, 60–61, 63, 79, 81–82, 85, 167, 210, 233, 250 Sabatakakis, Dimitris, 233 Samsung, 236, 249, 250 Schleyer, Johann Martin, 42 Search engine, 51, 92 Segment-based machine translation, 147–155 Semantic primitive, 47, 66–67 Semantic resources, 67, 159, 160, 172, 207, 228.


pages: 309 words: 54,839

Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain: Bitcoin, Blockchain, Ethereum & Smart Contracts by David Gerard

altcoin, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, blockchain, Blythe Masters, Bretton Woods, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, distributed ledger, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Extropian, fiat currency, financial innovation, Firefox, Flash crash, Fractional reserve banking, index fund, Internet Archive, Internet of things, Kickstarter, litecoin, M-Pesa, margin call, Network effects, peer-to-peer, Peter Thiel, pets.com, Ponzi scheme, Potemkin village, prediction markets, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, Ross Ulbricht, Ruby on Rails, Satoshi Nakamoto, short selling, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Singularitarianism, slashdot, smart contracts, South Sea Bubble, tulip mania, Turing complete, Turing machine, WikiLeaks

Some of those are going to discover the legal consequences very cert– ah, sure … well, I won’t say exactly when, and I won’t say who quite yet, but they’re coming.” [187] Peter Todd (@petertoddbtc). “If that scammer tries to sue me I’m going to lol so hard…” Twitter, 30 June 2017. [188] Kristy Kruithof, Judith Aldridge, David Décary Hétu, Megan Sim, Elma Dujso, Stijn Hoorens. “Internet-facilitated drugs trade: An analysis of the size, scope and the role of the Netherlands”. Rand Corporation, 2016. [189] Herb Weisbaum. “Ransomware: Now a Billion Dollar a Year Crime and Growing”. NBC News, 9 January 2017. [190] “Frequently Asked Questions: Find answers to recurring questions and myths about Bitcoin”. bitcoin.org. (Archive of 29 July 2015; archive of 4 August 2015; archive of 7 August 2015.) [191] Giuseppe Pappalardo, T. Di Matteo, Guido Caldarelli, Tomaso Aste. “Blockchain Inefficiency in the Bitcoin Peers Network”. arXiv:1704.01414, 5 April 2017

“Bitcoin Node Numbers Fall After Spam Transaction ‘Attack’”. CoinDesk, 15 October 2015. [196] Jordan Pearson. “Is Bitcoin Under Attack?” Motherboard, 1 March 2016. [197] Izabella Kaminska. “The currency of the future has a settlement problem”. FT Alphaville (blog), Financial Times, 17 May 2017. [198] Nathaniel Popper. “A Bitcoin Believer’s Crisis of Faith”. New York Times, 14 January 2016. [199] Rand Corporation’s estimate of the darknet drug market as $14.2m in January 2016 would make it $170m/year; the UN Office on Drugs and Crime estimated the whole global illegal drug market at $321.6 billion in 2003, and presumably more now. All these figures are extremely rubbery (which may be why the latest global figure is from 2003), but “less than 0.1%” seems a safe statement. “World Drug Report 2005: Volume 1: Analysis”.


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Data and Goliath: The Hidden Battles to Collect Your Data and Control Your World by Bruce Schneier

23andMe, Airbnb, airport security, AltaVista, Anne Wojcicki, augmented reality, Benjamin Mako Hill, Black Swan, Boris Johnson, Brewster Kahle, Brian Krebs, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, citizen journalism, cloud computing, congestion charging, disintermediation, drone strike, Edward Snowden, experimental subject, failed state, fault tolerance, Ferguson, Missouri, Filter Bubble, Firefox, friendly fire, Google Chrome, Google Glasses, hindsight bias, informal economy, Internet Archive, Internet of things, Jacob Appelbaum, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, lifelogging, linked data, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, moral panic, Nash equilibrium, Nate Silver, national security letter, Network effects, Occupy movement, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, payday loans, pre–internet, price discrimination, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, RFID, Ross Ulbricht, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, South China Sea, stealth mode startup, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, TaskRabbit, telemarketer, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, undersea cable, urban planning, WikiLeaks, zero day

Daniel Engber (2 Jul 2014), “The cannibal cop goes free, but what about the murderous mechanic?” Slate, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/crime/2014/07/the_cannibal_cop_gilberto_valle_goes_free_what_about_michael_van_hise_and.html. Already law enforcement agencies: Walter L. Perry et al. (2013), “Predictive policing: The role of crime forecasting in law enforcement operations,” RAND Corporation, https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/243830.pdf. US National Institute of Justice (13 Jan 2014), “Predictive policing research,” http://www.nij.gov/topics/law-enforcement/strategies/predictive-policing/Pages/research.aspx. This notion of making certain crimes: Michael L. Rich (Mar 2013), “Should we make crime impossible?” Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy 36, http://www.harvard-jlpp.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/36_2_795_Rich.pdf.

the IRS uses data mining: US Government Accountability Office (2013), “Offshore tax evasion: IRS has collected billions of dollars, but may be missing continued evasion,” Report GAO-13-318, http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/653369.pdf. IBM Corporation (2011), “New York State Tax: How predictive modeling improves tax revenues and citizen equity,” https://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/leadership/nystax/assets/pdf/0623-NYS-Tax_Paper.pdf. the police use it: Walter L. Perry et al. (2013), “Predictive policing: The role of crime forecasting in law enforcement operations,” RAND Corporation, https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/243830.pdf. Terrorist plots are different: John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart (2011), Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security, Oxford University Press, chap. 2, http://books.google.com/books?id=jyYGL2jZBC4C. even highly accurate … systems: Jeff Jonas and Jim Harper (11 Dec 2006), “Effective counterterrorism and the limited role of predictive data mining,” Cato Institute, http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/effective-counterterrorism-limited-role-predictive-data-mining.

Kaspersky Government Cybersecurity Forum, http://kasperskygovforum.com. These tend to be totalitarian: Here’s a proposal to institute a sort of “cyber draft” to conscript networks in the event of a cyberwar. Susan W. Brenner and Leo L. Clarke (Oct 2010), “Civilians in cyberwarfare: Conscripts,” Vanderbilt Journal of Trans-national Law 43, http://www.vanderbilt.edu/jotl/manage/wp-content/uploads/Brenner-_Final_1.pdf. The 1878 Posse Comitatus Act: RAND Corporation (20 Mar 2001), “Overview of the Posse Comitatus Act,” in Preparing the U.S. Army for Homeland Security, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1251/MR1251.AppD.pdf. Charles Doyle and Jennifer K. Elsea (16 Aug 2012), “The Posse Comitatus Act and related matters: The use of the military to execute civilian law,” Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R42659.pdf.


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Multitude: War and Democracy in the Age of Empire by Michael Hardt, Antonio Negri

affirmative action, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, conceptual framework, continuation of politics by other means, David Graeber, Defenestration of Prague, deskilling, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, global village, Howard Rheingold, Howard Zinn, illegal immigration, Joseph Schumpeter, land reform, land tenure, late capitalism, liberation theology, means of production, Naomi Klein, new economy, Paul Samuelson, post-work, private military company, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, Richard Stallman, Slavoj Žižek, The Chicago School, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, transaction costs, union organizing, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus

For some varied examples, see Max Horkheimer and Theodor Adorno, The Dialectic of Enlightenment (New York: Continuum, 1972); Guy Debord, The Society of the Spectacle (New York: Zone, 1994); Paul Virilio, Desert Screen: War at the Speed of Light (New York: Continuum, 2002). 73 See John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, eds., Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy (Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 2001). 74 For an excellent history of U.S. counterinsurgency strategy, which focuses on the behaviorist paradigm at military think tanks like the Rand Corporation, see Ron Robin, The Making of the Cold War Enemy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001). The major part of the book deals with the Korean War, but there is a fascinating chapter on the shift in counterinsurgency strategy during the Vietnam War away from attempting “constructively” to change the psychology of the enemy—winning hearts and minds—toward simply and coercively trying to change the enemy’s behavior. 75 Arquilla and Ronfeldt consider swarming the primary military strategy of netwar.

The major part of the book deals with the Korean War, but there is a fascinating chapter on the shift in counterinsurgency strategy during the Vietnam War away from attempting “constructively” to change the psychology of the enemy—winning hearts and minds—toward simply and coercively trying to change the enemy’s behavior. 75 Arquilla and Ronfeldt consider swarming the primary military strategy of netwar. See John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, Swarming and the Future of Conflict (Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 2000). 76 Much of the U.S. writing on unilateralism is tinged with the hypocritical pathos that Rudyard Kipling’s notion of the “white man’s burden” carried in a previous era. For laments on the solitude and reluctance of the United States in a unilaterialist role, see Samuel Huntington, “The Lonely Superpower,” Foreign Affairs 78, no. 2 (March-April 1999): 35-49; and Richard Haass, The Reluctant Sheriff: The United States After the Cold War (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1997). 77 We should note that human rights has become fundamental—a European legal philosopher from the last century would say “dogmatic”—in the field of international law.

We will return to discuss these electronic movements when we consider questions of immaterial property in chapter 2. 110 See, for example, Arquilla and Ronfeldt, Networks and Netwar. 111 Pierre Clastres, Society Against the State: Essays in Political Anthropology, trans. Robert Hurley in collaboration with Abe Stein (New York: Zone, 1987), especially chapter 11. 112 See Arquilla and Ronfeldt, Swarming and the Future of Conflict (Santa Monica: Rand Corporation, 2000). 113 See, for example, James Kennedy and Russell Eberhart with Yuhai Shi, Swarm Intelligence (San Francisco: Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, 2001). 114 Kennedy and Russell, with Shi, 103-104. For a more colorful account of insect communication, see Karl von Frisch, The Dancing Bees, trans. Dora Ilse (London: Methuen, 1954). 115 Emile Zola, La debacle (Paris: Charpentier, 1899), 210. 116 See Kristin Ross, The Emergence of Social Space: Rimbaud and the Paris Commune (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1988), 105.


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The Innovators: How a Group of Inventors, Hackers, Geniuses and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution by Walter Isaacson

1960s counterculture, Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, AltaVista, Apple II, augmented reality, back-to-the-land, beat the dealer, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, bitcoin, Bob Noyce, Buckminster Fuller, Byte Shop, c2.com, call centre, citizen journalism, Claude Shannon: information theory, Clayton Christensen, commoditize, computer age, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Debian, desegregation, Donald Davies, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Hofstadter, Dynabook, El Camino Real, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, en.wikipedia.org, Firefox, Google Glasses, Grace Hopper, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hacker Ethic, Haight Ashbury, Howard Rheingold, Hush-A-Phone, HyperCard, hypertext link, index card, Internet Archive, Jacquard loom, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, Mother of all demos, new economy, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, Norman Macrae, packet switching, PageRank, Paul Terrell, pirate software, popular electronics, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, Robert Metcalfe, Rubik’s Cube, Sand Hill Road, Saturday Night Live, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, slashdot, speech recognition, Steve Ballmer, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, technological singularity, technoutopianism, Ted Nelson, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Nature of the Firm, The Wisdom of Crowds, Turing complete, Turing machine, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, wikimedia commons, William Shockley: the traitorous eight

The Defense Department and National Science Foundation soon became the prime funders of much of America’s basic research, spending as much as private industry during the 1950s through the 1980s.24 The return on that investment was huge, leading not only to the Internet but to many of the pillars of America’s postwar innovation and economic boom.11 A few corporate research centers, most notably Bell Labs, existed before the war. But after Bush’s clarion call produced government encouragement and contracts, hybrid research centers began to proliferate. Among the most notable were the RAND Corporation, originally formed to provide research and development (hence the name) to the Air Force; Stanford Research Institute and its offshoot, the Augmentation Research Center; and Xerox PARC. All would play a role in the development of the Internet. Two of the most important of these institutes sprang up around Cambridge, Massachusetts, just after the war: Lincoln Laboratory, a military-funded research center affiliated with MIT, and Bolt, Beranek and Newman, a research and development company founded and populated by MIT (and a few Harvard) engineers.

“Each may take different routes to get to the destination, and then they’re reassembled.”54 As Scantlebury explained in Gatlinburg, the person who first fully conceived a packet-switched network was an engineer named Paul Baran (pronounced BEAR-en). His family had immigrated from Poland when he was two and settled in Philadelphia, where his father opened a small grocery store. After graduating from Drexel in 1949, Baran joined Presper Eckert and John Mauchly in their new computer company, where he tested components for UNIVAC. He moved to Los Angeles, took night classes at UCLA, and eventually got a job at the RAND Corporation. When the Russians tested a hydrogen bomb in 1955, Baran found his life mission: to help prevent a nuclear holocaust. One day at RAND he was looking at the weekly list sent by the Air Force of topics it needed researched, and he seized on one that related to building a military communications system that would survive an enemy attack. He knew that such a system could help prevent a nuclear exchange, because if one side feared that its communications system could be knocked out it would be more likely to launch a preemptive first strike when tensions mounted.

“It’s just this one little case that seems to be an aberration,” he added, referring disparagingly to Kleinrock.72 Interestingly, until the mid-1990s Kleinrock had credited others with coming up with the idea of packet switching. In a paper published in November 1978, he cited Baran and Davies as pioneers of the concept: “In the early 1960’s, Paul Baran had described some of the properties of data networks in a series of RAND Corporation papers. . . . In 1968 Donald Davies at the National Physical Laboratories in England was beginning to write about packet-switched networks.”73 Likewise, in a 1979 paper describing the development of distributed networks, Kleinrock neither mentioned nor cited his own work from the early 1960s. As late as 1990 he was still declaring that Baran was the first to conceive of packet switching: “I would credit him [Baran] with the first ideas.”74 However, when Kleinrock’s 1979 paper was reprinted in 2002, he wrote a new introduction that claimed, “I developed the underlying principles of packet switching, having published the first paper on the subject in 1961.”75 In fairness to Kleinrock, whether or not he had claimed that his work in the early 1960s devised packet switching, he would have been (and still should be) accorded great respect as an Internet pioneer.


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A Fiery Peace in a Cold War: Bernard Schriever and the Ultimate Weapon by Neil Sheehan

Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Charles Lindbergh, cuban missile crisis, double helix, European colonialism, John von Neumann, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Norman Macrae, nuclear winter, operation paperclip, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, undersea cable, uranium enrichment

He allocated as well $10 million to the Douglas Aircraft Company for a one-year program of long-range studies. The first study, completed in May 1946, was on the feasibility of launching a satellite into space for a variety of military uses from photoreconnaissance to weather reporting and communications. The Douglas enterprise, called Project RAND, for “research and development,” was separated from the aircraft firm within a couple of years and metamorphosed into the RAND Corporation, located in Santa Monica, California, the think tank that provided the soon to be independent U.S. Air Force with strategic and tactical analyses throughout the Cold War. Then, in January 1946, with less than a month to go before his retirement to his ranch in Northern California, Arnold had taken his final step. He had summoned Schriever and given him the mission of cultivating relations with the civilian scientific community in the postwar years through a new Scientific Liaison Branch to be established within the Research and Engineering Division. 22.

The aircraft, for example, while next-generation, had to be achievable within what could reasonably be foreseen in the advance of technology. Schriever, of course, lacked the knowledge to complete such projections by himself. To formulate them he had to organize teams of scientists and engineers and other specialists in each area, drawing on the talent pool available to him from the Scientific Advisory Board, the RAND Corporation, and consultants recruited from the universities and industry. The Development Planning job turned out to be excellent preparation for the work that lay ahead of him in overseeing the building of the intercontinental ballistic missile. Because he was always dealing with what was to be accomplished tomorrow and not today, he was learning how to differentiate between what was future-feasible and future-fantasy and to do so in a variety of disciplines, not just in aeronautical engineering, where he had specific competence.

The technology that applied to sending the bomb up and bringing it back down again intact applied to virtually everything else. The first American astronauts to venture into space were, in fact, to ride up on military missiles and to return in capsules that were modified versions of the initial hydrogen bomb warhead. Bennie imparted some of the exhilaration of this adventure in a secret briefing he gave to the staff of the Air Force’s think tank, the RAND Corporation, in nearby Santa Monica on January 31, 1955. He spoke of a warhead flashing through space at the previously unimaginable speed of 20,000 feet per second, of the “invulnerability” of this nuclear spear point to Soviet defenses. And yet, he said, the real objective of the adventure was to contribute to the preservation of peace. The ICBM was not being built to be used as a weapon. Rather, as an instrument of war the ICBM would have the “highest probability of Not being used.”


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How Not to Network a Nation: The Uneasy History of the Soviet Internet (Information Policy) by Benjamin Peters

Albert Einstein, American ideology, Andrei Shleifer, Benoit Mandelbrot, bitcoin, Brownian motion, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, computer age, conceptual framework, continuation of politics by other means, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Davies, double helix, Drosophila, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, hive mind, index card, informal economy, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jacquard loom, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, linear programming, mandelbrot fractal, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, Paul Erdős, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, scientific mainstream, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, stochastic process, technoutopianism, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, transaction costs, Turing machine

At important times, the complex in cold war American science proved vexatious, if not impossible, to navigate. Take, for example, Paul Baran (1926–2011), a Polish-born engineer who was raised in Philadelphia and Boston. Baran is widely remembered today for innovating packet-switching and distributed-network designs, which now are central to modern-day networking, but his struggles are less well remembered. In 1960 at the RAND Corporation, a research think tank under contract with the U.S. Air Force, Baran articulated the “hot-potato heuristic” behind modern-day data traffic on the Internet: break down a message into packets (or envelopes) of information, release each packet to travel on its own traffic-reducing pathway to its final destination, and resequence and receive all packets in their original order. In the early 1960s, Baran also designed the celebrated idea of a distributed network in which every node in a network connects to its neighboring nodes and not to any decentralized or centralized node arrangement (figure 3.2).

In the early 1960s, Baran also designed the celebrated idea of a distributed network in which every node in a network connects to its neighboring nodes and not to any decentralized or centralized node arrangement (figure 3.2). Figure 3.2 Three network types: (a) Centralized, (b) decentralized, and (c) distributed. Source: From Paul Baran, “Introduction to Distributed Communication Networks.” On Distributed Communications, RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-3420-PR, August 1964, 2. Reproduced with permission of The Rand Corp. Widely celebrated as a prototype to “end-to-end” intelligence and a liberal democratic mode of communication, Baran’s network innovations were colored and shaped by the cold war military complex as well as cybernetic sources. In the embarrassing aftermath of Sputnik, the U.S. Defense Department ordered ARPA to design a “survivable” network that would last long enough in a nuclear strike to send a “go-code” to guarantee “second-strike capability.”

John von Neumann and the Origins of Modern Computing. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1990. Aspray, William. “The Scientific Conceptualization of Information.” Annals of the History of Computing 7 (2) (1985): 117–140. Aspray, William, and Paul E. Ceruzzi. The Internet and American Business. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2008. Baran, Paul. “Introduction to Distributed Communication Networks.” On Distributed Communications. RAND Corporation Memorandum RM-3420-PR, August 1964. Bartol, Kathryn M. “Soviet Computer Centres: Network or Tangle?” Soviet Studies 23 (4) (1972): 608–618. Becker, Abraham S. “Input-Output and Soviet Planning: A Survey of Recent Developments.” Memorandum prepared for the United States Air Force, RAND Memorandum RM 3523-PR, March 1963. Accessed July 18, 2013, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=AD0401490.


Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health by Laurie Garrett

accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, biofilm, clean water, collective bargaining, desegregation, discovery of DNA, discovery of penicillin, Drosophila, employer provided health coverage, Fall of the Berlin Wall, germ theory of disease, global pandemic, illegal immigration, indoor plumbing, Induced demand, John Snow's cholera map, Jones Act, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, mass incarceration, Maui Hawaii, means of production, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mouse model, Nelson Mandela, new economy, nuclear winter, phenotype, profit motive, Project Plowshare, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Right to Buy, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, stem cell, the scientific method, urban decay, urban renewal, War on Poverty, working poor, Works Progress Administration, yellow journalism

Analysis of National Entity Survival. Sponsored by the Office of Civil Defense (SRI 7979–007), November, 1967; Mitchell, H. H., The Rand Corporation. Guidelines for the Control of Communicable Disease in the Postattack Environment. Sponsored by the Atomic Energy Commission (RM-5090-TAB), August, 1966; Mitchell, H. H., The Rand Corporation. Plague in the United States: An Assessment of Its Significance as a Problem Following a Thermonuclear War. Sponsored by the Atomic Energy Commission (RM-4868-TAB), June, 1966; Mitchell, H. H., The Rand Corporation. The Problem of Tuberculosis in the Postattack Environment. Sponsored by the U.S. Air Force (RM-5362-PRB), June 1967; Pogrund R. S., The Rand Corporation. Nutrition in the Postattack Environment. Sponsored by the Atomic Energy Commission (RM-5052-TAB), December, 1966; Johnson, T. and Johnston, D.

Because export-quality vodka, such as Stolichnaya Cristall, sold for about thirty dollars a liter in Moscow or Kyiv, few local people would dream of wasting their money on such a product. Most vodka was sold for less than eight dollars a liter, and some was available in street kiosks for a dollar. “Between December 1990 and December 1994, consumer prices [in Russia] increased by 2,020 times for all goods and services, by 2,154 times for food products, but only 653 times for alcoholic beverages,” stated a report issued jointly by the California-based Rand Corporation and Moscow’s Center for Demography and Human Ecology.35 “This means that over this period, in relative terms, alcohol became over three times cheaper than these other products.”36 Adult alcohol consumption in 1996 was 18 liters a year of pure alcohol, or the rough equivalent of 38 liters of 100-proof vodka, according to the Russian Ministry of Health. That’s the equal of consuming one and a half bottles of high-proof vodka weekly.

More probable was a cycle in which greater numbers of uninsured Americans spiraled into debt trying to pay their share of premiums and deductibles, possibly returning to work prematurely following illness, and, as a result, becoming less healthy. Few tears were shed among Washington insiders. The GOP leadership washed its hands of health care—block grants shifted funds to the states, so if Rhode Island’s populace wanted universal health care, well, fine, they could have it. But could they? A 1997 Rand Corporation survey found that few, if any, of the fifty states could sustain the sort of tax increase that would be necessary to supply health coverage to all their citizens. Without substantial federal assistance, expanded access to medicine seemed unlikely—indeed, more probable was rising noninsurance in every state in the United States.615 What was public health to do? How could it survive if America was unlikely to entertain another fundamental reassessment of its health goals until a catastrophe or financial failure occurred?


On Power and Ideology by Noam Chomsky

anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, feminist movement, imperial preference, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Stanislav Petrov, union organizing

Newspeak be instituted. In pursuance of these aims, the U.S. followed a dual-track policy. One was the reconstitution of the National Guard, from 1979 according to Nicaraguan exiles and Salvadoran officers who participated, with aid and training from agents of the neo-Nazi Argentine generals acting “as a proxy for the United States in Central America” (terrorism specialist Brian Jenkins of the Rand Corporation) from 1980, and direct U.S. control from 1981. The second track was an early offer of aid to the new government, but designed so as to strengthen the private business sector. U.S. aid was also supported by international banks, which feared that Nicaragua would not be able to service the vast debt resulting from their collaboration with Somoza, particularly now that he had fled with a large part of the country’s remaining assets.

Shane, Hoofprints on the Forest: Cattle Ranching and the Destruction of Latin America’s Tropical Forests (ISHI, 1986); William H. Durham, Scarcity and Survival in Central America (Stanford U., 1979); Dr. Thorn Kerstiens and Drs Piet Nelissen, Report on the Elections in Nicaragua, 4 November 1984, on behalf of [Dutch] Government Observers; David Felix, “How to Resolve Latin America’s Debt Crisis,” Challenge, Nov./Dec. 1985; Brian Jenkins, New Modes of Conflict (Rand Corporation, June 1983); Inter-American Development Bank Report No. DES-13, Nicaragua, Jan. 1983, cited in Penrose, op. cit.; Jim Morrell, “Nicaragua’s War Economy,” International Policy Report, Nov. 1985; Morrell, “Redlining Nicaragua,” ibid., Dec. 1985; Jim Morrell and William Goodfellow, “Contadora: Under the Gun,” International Policy Report, May 1986; David MacMichael, testimony, International Court of Justice, Sept. 16, 1985, UN A/40/907, S/17639, 19 Nov. 1985, 26; Thomas W .


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Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq by Peter R. Mansoor, Donald Kagan, Frederick Kagan

Berlin Wall, central bank independence, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, friendly fire, HESCO bastion, indoor plumbing, land reform, open borders, RAND corporation, Saturday Night Live, zero-sum game

Agency for International Development made it abundantly clear that a lack of coordination prevailed among interested parties in Baghdad. This was largely a function of the failure to plan effectively for “Phase IV” operations, or those that would take place once regime change occurred. The inadequacy of planning for stabilization and reconstruction activities following the cessation of major combat operations is now well understood. A study by the RAND Corporation concludes, No planning was undertaken to provide for the security of the Iraqi people in the post conflict environment, given the expectations that the Iraqi government would remain largely intact; the Iraqi people would welcome the American presence; and local militia, police, and the regular army would be capable of providing law and order. By not including civil police in its nation-building 26 Baghdad operations, the burden for handling public security in Iraq fell upon coalition military forces, which were ill-prepared.

It’s 116 degrees here today, and I don’t even get a cold beer—GO #1 strikes again. So yet another go-round with the extended Betty Ford clinic. At least I’m drawing combat pay. I have a spare cot for you if you make it to Baghdad. My HQ is in the Martyr’s Monument east of the Tigris River. Alcohol not allowed, but bring cigars. Otherwise, enjoy the summer and drink a cold one for me. Ready First! Pete This page intentionally left blank Notes 1. Baghdad 1. RAND Corporation, “Iraq: Translating Lessons into Future DoD Policies,” Washington, D.C., February 7, 2005. 2. Rajiv Chandrasekaran, Imperial Life in the Emerald City: Inside Iraq’s Green Zone (New York: Knopf, 2006). 3. George Packer, The Assassin’s Gate (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2005), 181. 4. Samuel R. Berger, Brent Scowcroft, William L. Nash, et al., In the Wake of War: Improving U.S. Post-Conflict Capabilities (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2005), 4. 5.

As we now know, Saddam Hussein ordered the destruction of Iraq’s stockpiles of chemical weapons during the 1990s, well before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Kevin M. Woods, Michael R. Pease, Mark E. Stout, Williamson Murray, and James G. Lacey, Iraqi Perspectives Project: A View of Operation Iraqi Freedom from Saddam’s Senior Leadership (Washington, D.C.: Institute for Defense Analysis, 2006), 91–95. 2. Rusafa 1. Bruce Hoffman, “Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq,” Washington, D.C., RAND Corporation, June 2004; Kalev I. Sepp, “Best Practices in Counterinsurgency,” Military Review, May–June 2005, 8–12; Huba Wass de Czege, “On Policing the Frontiers of Freedom,” Army 56, no. 7 (2006), 14–22. 2. The first two were killed before my arrival. Private Shawn Pahnke was killed on June 16, 2003, and Private First Class Robert Frantz was killed on June 17, 2003. 3. “Top NCOs Rise to the Occasion,” Spartan Doughboy, December 1, 2003, 4. 4.


After Apollo?: Richard Nixon and the American Space Program by John M. Logsdon

John von Neumann, low earth orbit, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan

He had served the Nixon 1968 presidential campaign as its link to the financial community. As he assumed his White House position in April, Flanigan inherited from Ellsworth’s staff the previously mentioned Tom Whitehead as one of his staff; Whitehead was Flanigan’s primary assistant for NASA issues. Whitehead held a doctorate in management from MIT, where he had first majored in engineering. He during the 1960s had spent time at the Rand Corporation, a think-tank steeped in a systems analysis approach to assessing policy issues. Flanigan and Whitehead were to play key policy roles 46 A f t e r A p o l l o? Nixon assistants Peter Flanigan (left) and Clay Thomas Whitehead (right). (Photographs WHPO 1092–21 and MUG-W-322, courtesy of the Richard Nixon Presidential Library & Museum) in shaping the approach that the Nixon administration would take to the post-Apollo space program.

D e b at i n g a S h u t t l e D e c i s i o n 215 OMB’s Rice was personally sympathetic to the idea of not going ahead with the shuttle, noting that Niskanen and his group “wanted to kill it, just kill it off,” but that he had “adopted the view fairly early on that while that may well be the desirable thing to do from a broader public interest point of view, I didn’t believe that the President was in fact going to take the country out of manned space flight.” This skeptical perspective would lead Rice in the following weeks to seek the least costly shuttle program possible, putting him in direct opposition to NASA’s insistence that only a large space shuttle made sense. Rice’s background was in the type of systems analysis that had been developed at the Rand Corporation (which he would later head) and applied during the 1960s under Robert McNamara at the DOD; both Rice and Niskanen had worked at DOD then. Rice had pushed NASA to take a “whole systems” approach to evaluating the shuttle and possible alternatives for space transportation in terms of their cost-effectiveness. This approach, with its emphasis on quantitative measures, gave primary importance to economic factors.

Stark Draper, MIT; William Foster, former head of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency; T. Keith Glennan, first NASA administrator; Peter Goldmark, CBS Laboratories; Najeeb Halaby, Pan American Airlines; Frederich Kappel, former head of AT&T; Foy Kohler, former ambassador to the Soviet Union; William Deming Lewis, Lehigh University; John Love, governor of Colorado; Richard Olgilvie, Governor of Illinois; Henry Rowen, Rand Corporation; Leon Schacter, Amalgamated Meat Cutter and Butchers Workman Union; Dan Seymour, J. Walter Thompson Company; and Frank Stanton, CBS. (Stanton had also been one of the nongovernment people consulted by Lyndon Johnson in 1961 as he prepared the recommendations to President Kennedy that led to Project Apollo.) 15. Remarks of Vice President Agnew, July 7, 1969, attached to Memorandum from Russell Drew to Members and Observers of the Space Task Group, July 29, 1969; no author, “Report of Discussion at Invited Contributors Meeting, July 7, 1969,” July 18, 1969; memorandum from Milton Rosen to Thomas Paine, “Meeting of Invited Contributors to the President’s Space Task Group,” August 6, 1969, all in LSN/NHRC. 16.


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The Economists' Hour: How the False Prophets of Free Markets Fractured Our Society by Binyamin Appelbaum

"Robert Solow", airline deregulation, Alvin Roth, Andrei Shleifer, anti-communist, battle of ideas, Benoit Mandelbrot, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, Celtic Tiger, central bank independence, clean water, collective bargaining, Corn Laws, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, Diane Coyle, Donald Trump, ending welfare as we know it, financial deregulation, financial innovation, fixed income, floating exchange rates, full employment, George Akerlof, George Gilder, Gini coefficient, greed is good, Growth in a Time of Debt, income inequality, income per capita, index fund, inflation targeting, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jean Tirole, John Markoff, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, land reform, Long Term Capital Management, low cost airline, manufacturing employment, means of production, Menlo Park, minimum wage unemployment, Mohammed Bouazizi, money market fund, Mont Pelerin Society, Network effects, new economy, oil shock, Paul Samuelson, Philip Mirowski, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price stability, profit motive, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, rent control, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, road to serfdom, Robert Bork, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Sam Peltzman, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, starchitect, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, ultimatum game, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban renewal, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus

To overhaul defense spending, Kennedy turned to Robert McNamara, a forty-four-year-old whiz kid who had won a measure of fame by reviving the Ford Motor Company. “You cannot make decisions simply by asking yourself whether something might be nice to have,” the new secretary of defense said. “You have to make a judgment on how much is enough.”4 And McNamara knew what kind of person he needed to make those judgments: he needed an economist. He hired Charles Hitch, the head of the economics department at the Rand Corporation, a think tank created by the air force after World War II to keep some of the nation’s best minds working on military problems. Though academics no longer could be compelled to take orders, they could be induced to work on interesting questions in beachfront offices in Santa Monica, California. Hitch, one of the early recruits, was a conspicuously brilliant man. Born in Missouri in 1910, he became the first Rhodes Scholar offered a faculty position at Oxford University, then remained in Britain at the start of World War II, working on a team that picked targets for Allied bombers.

The Clean Air Act, for example, required sharp cuts in auto emissions that were impossible using available technologies. Lee Iacocca, then a Ford vice president, warned that enforcing the rules “could prevent continued production of automobiles.”31 Instead, General Motors created a filter called a catalytic converter to neutralize the pollution.* The Value of Life One of the first assignments the air force gave the Rand Corporation in the late 1940s was to figure out the best way to blow up the Soviet Union. Rand’s experts carefully considered the problem and advised the air force to send wave after wave of cheap, slow bombers into the teeth of the Soviet defenses. They had put a price on the bombs and the airplanes, but not on the pilots. The endorsement of kamikaze tactics did not amuse the air force, which is run by pilots, and Rand found itself scrambling to salvage its credibility with its only major client.

Arnold Harberger, “Sense and Economics: An Oral History with Arnold Harberger,” conducted by Paul Burnett in 2015 and 2016, Oral History Center, Bancroft Library, University of California, Berkeley. 123. Neil Irwin, “Finland Shows Why Many Europeans Think Americans Are Wrong About the Euro,” New York Times, July 20, 2015. Chapter 9. Made in Chile 1. Charles J. Hitch, “The Uses of Economics,” November 17, 1960, Rand Corporation. 2. The provision of technical assistance to Latin America, primarily in the areas of agriculture, geology, aviation, and child welfare, was initiated by President Franklin Roosevelt and expanded by Truman and Eisenhower. “We must embark on a bold new program for making the benefits of our scientific advances and industrial progress available for the improvement and growth of underdeveloped areas,” Truman declared in his 1949 inaugural address.


pages: 402 words: 110,972

Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines and Wired Markets by David J. Leinweber

AI winter, algorithmic trading, asset allocation, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, business cycle, butter production in bangladesh, butterfly effect, buttonwood tree, buy and hold, buy low sell high, capital asset pricing model, citizen journalism, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, Craig Reynolds: boids flock, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Danny Hillis, demand response, disintermediation, distributed generation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, experimental economics, financial innovation, fixed income, Gordon Gekko, implied volatility, index arbitrage, index fund, information retrieval, intangible asset, Internet Archive, John Nash: game theory, Kenneth Arrow, load shedding, Long Term Capital Management, Machine translation of "The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak." to Russian and back, market fragmentation, market microstructure, Mars Rover, Metcalfe’s law, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Myron Scholes, natural language processing, negative equity, Network effects, optical character recognition, paper trading, passive investing, pez dispenser, phenotype, prediction markets, quantitative hedge fund, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Renaissance Technologies, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, semantic web, Sharpe ratio, short selling, Silicon Valley, Small Order Execution System, smart grid, smart meter, social web, South Sea Bubble, statistical arbitrage, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Tacoma Narrows Bridge, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, time value of money, too big to fail, transaction costs, Turing machine, Upton Sinclair, value at risk, Vernor Vinge, yield curve, Yogi Berra, your tax dollars at work

Aronson Managing Partner, Aronson⫹Johnson⫹Ortiz Past Chairman, CFA Institute xi Acknowledgments T he most recent of the essays in this book were written in December 2008, while others go back to the start of electronic markets—a span of over 20 years, so there are a lot of people to thank. In more or less chronological order, Karen Goldberg, of the MacArthur High School math department for letting me play with what passed for a computer there, Henry Kendall of MIT, for letting me play with a real one, Harry Lewis at Harvard, for suggesting that my empty course brackets be filled at the Business School; Bruno Augenstein and Willis Ware, at RAND Corporation, for getting me interested in real-time artificial intelligence; Steve Wyle at LISP Machines and Don Putnam and Lew Roth at Inference Corporation for encouragement and assistance to hammer the square peg of early artificial intelligence into the round hole of finance; Dale Prouty, Yossi Beinart, and Mark Wright of Integrated Analytics for rounding off the peg into MarketMind and later QuantEx; Ray Killian and Frank Baxter of Jefferies and ITG, for noticing that the rounded peg now did fit the finance hole.

They were more of a diversion than an avocation, but the accident of the brackets had more influence subsequently than I could have imagined at the time. Harry also enlisted me as the computer science department’s representative on the Committee on Graduate Education, which gave me a reason to hang out in the dean’s office. Grad students wait for deans, and while perusing the reading material near his couch I found he was on the board of the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica. He suggested it Intr oduction xxi might be a nice place to work, right on the beach with no blizzards. I put it on my list. Gray Silver Shadow When the time came to find a real job, I was going out to the University of California at Los Angeles to interview for a faculty position, and I added RAND to the schedule. UCLA told me to stay in the Holiday Inn on Wilshire Boulevard, rent a car, and come out in February 1977.

In Imaginary Weapons: A Journey Through the Pentagon’s Scientific Underworld, Defense Technology International editor Sharon Weinberger tells the remarkable story of how tens of millions of dollars were spent on a crackpot idea for what amounted to a nuclear hand grenade, despite the efforts of the most senior Pentagon scientists to scuttle the project, and the dubious utility of such a weapon. Who would want to throw it? Does the world need a nuke that fits in a lunch bag?10 My personal favorite for a bad technology idea, now in second place after the models that helped create the financial meltdown (but only because it was never built), was described at a RAND Corporation seminar in the early 1980s by then Undersecretary of 288 Nerds on Wall Str eet Defense Bill Perry (later Secretary of Defense in the Clinton years, and not to be confused with the Fridge of the Chicago Bears). I asked him what the worst idea ever to cross his desk at the Pentagon was. Without hesitation, he said that, to his consternation, a proposal had gotten as far as his office to place a huge array of nuclear-powered rocket engines on the far side of the moon, and in the event of hostilities, fire the rockets to plunge the moon into the Soviet Union.


pages: 394 words: 117,982

The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage, and Fear in the Cyber Age by David E. Sanger

active measures, autonomous vehicles, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, British Empire, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, computer age, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Google Chrome, Google Earth, Jacob Appelbaum, John Markoff, Mark Zuckerberg, MITM: man-in-the-middle, mutually assured destruction, RAND corporation, ransomware, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, Valery Gerasimov, WikiLeaks, zero day

Sanger and Jeremy Peters, “A Promise of Changes for Access to Secrets,” New York Times, June 14, 2013, www.nytimes.com/2013/06/14/us/nsa-chief-to-release-more-details-on-surveillance-programs.html?mtrref=www.google.com. That explains why about one-third: Philip Bump, “America’s Outsourced Spy Force, by the Numbers,” The Atlantic, June 10, 2013, www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/06/contract-security-clearance-charts/314442/. In 2005 the air force hired the RAND Corporation: Evan S. Medeiros et al., A New Direction for China’s Defense Industry, Rand Corporation, 2005, www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG334.pdf. blocked the purchase: Steven R. Weisman, “Sale of 3Com to Huawei Is Derailed by U.S. Security Concerns,” New York Times, February 21, 2008, www.nytimes.com/2008/02/21/business/worldbusiness/21iht-3com.html. That was the name of a covert program: David E. Sanger and Nicole Perlroth, “N.S.A.

It feared that Huawei’s equipment and products—everything from cell phones to giant switches that run telephone networks to corporate computer systems—were riddled with secret “back doors.” Classified intelligence reports and unclassified congressional studies all warned that one day the People’s Liberation Army and China’s Ministry of State Security would exploit those back doors to get inside American networks. In 2005 the air force hired the RAND Corporation to examine the threat from Chinese networking firms. Huawei was high on the list of threats: RAND concluded that a “digital triangle” of Chinese firms, the military, and state-run research groups were working together to bore deeply into the networks that keep the United States and its allies running. At the center of the action, they suggested, was the founder of Huawei, Ren Zhengfei, a former PLA engineer who, the Americans suspected, had never really left his last job.


pages: 395 words: 116,675

The Evolution of Everything: How New Ideas Emerge by Matt Ridley

"Robert Solow", affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, AltaVista, altcoin, anthropic principle, anti-communist, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Columbian Exchange, computer age, Corn Laws, cosmological constant, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of DNA, Donald Davies, double helix, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, endogenous growth, epigenetics, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, falling living standards, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, George Santayana, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, hydraulic fracturing, imperial preference, income per capita, indoor plumbing, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, land reform, Lao Tzu, long peace, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, Necker cube, obamacare, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, price mechanism, profit motive, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Feynman, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, smart contracts, South Sea Bubble, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, twin studies, uber lyft, women in the workforce

The most influential disciple was General William Draper, whose commission on foreign aid reported to President Eisenhower in 1959 that aid should be tied explicitly to birth control, in order to decrease the supply of recruits to communism. Eisenhower did not buy this, and nor did his Catholic successor John F. Kennedy. But Draper did not give up. His Population Crisis Committee gradually won over many of the most influential people in American public life to the thesis that coercive population control was essential to defeating communism. Eventually, with the help of a RAND Corporation study which argued (using an absurd 15 per cent discount rate) that children had negative economic value, Draper and his allies won Lyndon Johnson’s endorsement in 1966, and population control became an official part of American foreign aid. Under its ruthless director Reimert Ravenholt, the Office of Population grew its budget till it was larger than that of the rest of the entire US aid budget.

There is a long and sterile argument to be had about who deserves credit for inventing the internet – government or private industry. Barack Obama is in no doubt that, as he put it in a speech in 2012, ‘The Internet didn’t get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet.’ He was referring to the fact that the decentralised network we know today began life as the Arpanet, a project funded by the Pentagon, and that relied on an idea called packet switching, dreamt up by Paul Baran at the RAND Corporation, whose motive was chiefly to make something that could survive a Soviet first strike and still transmit messages to missile bases to retaliate. Hence the decentralised nature of the network. That’s nonsense, say others. The internet is more than package-switching. It requires computers, communications, all sorts of software and other protocols, many of which the government-funded research projects would have bought from private enterprise.

(with Paul Paddock) 207 Page, Larry 188 Pagel, Mark 80, 81–2 Pakistan 32, 206 Paley, William 38–9, 41–2, 51 Panama 286 Paris 102, 121, 254 Park, Walter 139 Parris, Matthew 303 Parys Mine Company, Anglesey 278 Pascal, Blaise 273 Paul, Senator Rand 241 Paul, Ron 114, 285, 292, 295 Paul, St (Saul of Tarsus) 8, 258, 264 Pauling, Linus 121 Pax Romana 239 Peace High School, Hyderabad (India) 181 Peel, Robert 246, 283–4 Peer-to-Peer Foundation 308 Peninsular War 280 People’s Printing Press 288 personality: and the blank slate 156–7, 158–9; and genes 159, 160–2; and homicide 169–71; innateness of behaviour 157–8; intelligence from within 165–7; non-genetic differences 162–5; and parenting 159–60, 161–2; and sexual attraction 172–3; and sexuality 167–9 Peterloo massacre (1819) 245 Pfister, Christian 276 Philippe, duc d’Orléans 286 Philippines 190 Philips, Emo 140 Philostratus 258 Phoenicia 101 Pinker, Steven 28, 30, 31–3, 172–3; The Better Angels of Our Nature 28–9 Pinnacle Technologies 136 Pitt-Rivers, Augustus 127 Pixar 124 Planned Parenthood Foundation 204 Plath, Robert 126 Plato 7, 11 Plomin, Robert 165, 167 Poincaré, Henri 18, 121 Polanyi, Karl 133 Polanyi, Michael 253 politics 314–16 Poor Law (1834) 195 Pope, Alexander 15 Popper, Karl 253; ‘Conjectures and Refutations’ 269 Population: American eugenics 200–3; control and sterilisation 205–8; and eugenics 197–9; impact of Green Revolution 208–10; Irish application of Malthusian doctrines 195–7; Malthusian theory 193, 194–5; and one-child policy 210–14; post-war eugenics 203–5 Population Crisis Committee 206 Portugal, Portuguese 134 Pottinger, Sir Harry 233 ‘Primer for Development’ (UN, 1951) 232 Prince, Thomas 242 Pritchett, Lant 179–80; The Rebirth of Education 176 Procter & Gamble 130 Proudhon, Pierre-Joseph 194–5 Prussia 176 Psychological Review 159 Putin, Vladimir 305 ‘The Puzzle of Monogamous Marriage’ (Henrich, Boyd & Richerson) 89 Pythagoras 85 Pythagorism 259 Qian XingZhong 213 Quesnay, François 98 Raines, Franklin 292 Ramsay, John 25 RAND Corporation 206, 300 Ravenholt, Reimert 206 Ray Smith, Alvy 124 Reagan, Ronald 254, 290 Red Sea 82 Reed, Leonard 43 Reformation 216, 220 religion: and climate change/global warming 271–6; and cult of cereology (crop circles) 264–6; existence of God 14–15; heretics and heresies 141–2; as human impulse 256–8; predictability of gods 259–60; and the prophet 260–3; temptations of superstition 266–8; variety of beliefs 257–8; vital delusions 268–71 Renaissance 220 Ricardo, David 104–5, 106, 246 Richardson, Samuel 88 Richerson, Pete 78, 89 Ridley, Matt, The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves 110–11, 126–7 Rio de Janeiro 92 Roberts, Russ 4 Robinson, James 97–8 Rockefeller Foundation 229, 230–1 Rodriguez, Joã 47–8 Rodrik, Dani 228 Rome 257, 259, 260 Romer, Paul 109 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano 251 Roosevelt, Theodore 197 Rothbard, Murray 243 Rousseau, Jean-Jacques 165, 216 Rowling, J.K. 122 Royal Bank 281 Royal Mint 278, 279 Royal Navy 297 Royal United Services Institution 198 Rudin, Ernst 202 Rufer, Chris 226 Runciman, Garry, Very Different, But Much the Same 94 Rusk, Dean 206–7 Russell, Lord John 195 Russia 119, 204, 227–8, 250, 303 Russian Revolution 318 Sadow, Bernard 126 Safaricom 296 St Louis (ship) 202–3 St Maaz School, Hyderabad (India) 181 Salk Institute, California 67 San Marco, Venice 53 Sandia National Laboratory 136 Sanger, Margaret 201, 204 Santa Fe Institute 93, 126 Santayana, George 10 Sapienza, Carmen 67 Satoshi Nakamoto 307–8, 309–10, 312 Schiller, Friedrich 248 Schmidt, Albrecht 222 Schumpeter, Joseph 106, 128, 251; Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy 106–7; Theory of Economic Development 106 science: as driver of innovation 133–7; as private good 137–9; pseudo-science 269 Science (journal) 70 Scientology 263 Scopes, John 49 Scotland 17, 280–2, 286 Scott, Sir Peter 211 Scott, Sir Walter (‘Malachi Malagrowther’) 283 Second International Congress of Eugenics 200 Second World War 105, 138, 203, 231, 252, 254, 318 Self-Management Institute 226 Selgin, George 297; Good Money 279, 280 Shade, John 188 Shakespeare, William 15, 131, 216, 224 Shanker, Albert 180 Shaw, George Bernard 197 Shaw, Marilyn 155–6 Shelley, Mary, Frankenstein 16 Shelley, Percy 16 Shockley, William 119 Shogun Japanese 130 Sierra Club 204 Silk Road 311–12 Silvester, David 274 Simon, Julian 209 Singapore 190 Sistine Chapel, Rome 256 Skarbek, David, The Social Order of the Underworld 237–8 Skinner, B.F. 156, 267–8 Skirving, William 244 skyhooks 7, 13, 14, 18, 65, 67, 71, 150, 267 Slumdog Millionaire (film, 2008) 185 Smith, Adam 3, 20, 21, 22–7, 28, 33, 110, 112, 117, 234, 243, 244, 246, 249; The Theory of Moral Sentiments 23–4, 27, 28, 37–8, 98; The Wealth of Nations 24, 38, 98–100, 103–4, 137 Smith, John Maynard 53 Smith, Joseph 263, 264, 266 Smithism 110 Snowden, Edward 303 SOLE (self-organised learning environment) 186 Solow, Robert 108, 137 Somalia 32 Song, Chinese dynasty 101 Song Jian 210–11, 212–13 South America 247 South Korea 125, 190, 229 South Sea Bubble (1720) 285, 294 South Sudan 32 Soviet-Harvard illusion 3 Soviet Union 114, 122 Spain 101, 247 Sparkes, Matthew 313 Sparta 101 Spencer, Herbert 216–17, 249, 253 Spenser, Edmund 15 Spinoza, Baruch 20, 141–2, 148, 268; Ethics 142; l’Esprit des lois 142–3 Sputnik 138 Stalin, Joseph 250, 252, 253 Stalling, A.E. 10 Stanford University 184, 185 Stealth bomber 130 Steiner, George, Nostalgia for the Absolute 266 Steiner, Rudolf 271 Steinsberger, Nick 136 Stephenson, George 119 Stewart, Dugald 38, 244 Stiglitz, Joseph 292 Stockman, David 288, 289–90; The Great Deformation 294 stoicism 259 Stop Online Piracy Act (US, 2011) 304 Strawson, Galen 140 Stuart, Charles Edward ‘The Young Pretender’ 282 Stuart, James Edward ‘The Old Pretender’ 281 Sudan 32 Summers, Larry 110 Sunnis 262 Suomi, Stephen 161 Sveikauskas, Leo 139 Swan, Joseph 119 Sweden 101, 284 Switzerland 32, 190, 247, 254 Sybaris 93 Syria 32 Szabo, Nick 307, 310; ‘Shelling Out: The Origins of Money’ 307 Tabarrok, Alex 132; Launching the Innovation Renaissance 132 Taiwan 190 Tajikistan 305 Taleb, Nassim 3, 92, 107, 135, 285, 312 Tamerlane the Great 87 Taoism 259, 260 Taylor, Winslow 250 Taylorism 250, 251 Tea Act (UK, 1773) 282n Tea Party 246 technology: biological similarities 126–31; boat analogy 128; computers 123–5, 126; copying 132–3; electric light 1–2; and fracking 136; inexorable progress 122–6, 130–1; innovation as emergent phenomenon 139; and the internet 299–316; light bulbs 118–19, 120; many-to-many 300; mass-communication 200; open innovation 130; patents/copyright laws 131–2; and printing 220; and science 133–9; simultaneous discovery 120–2; skunk works 130; software 131 TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) lecture 177 Thatcher, Margaret 217 Third International Congress of Eugenics 201–2, 204 Third World 231–2 Thrun, Sebastian 185 Time (magazine) 241 The Times 308 Togo 94 Tokyo 92 Tolstoy, Leo 217 Tooby, John 43 Tooley, James 181–4 Toy Story (film, 1995) 124 Trevelyan, Charles 195 Tuchman, Barbara, A Distant Mirror 29 Tucker, William 90; Marriage and Civilization 89 Tullock, Gordon 35 Turner, Ted 213 Twister (messaging system) 313 Twitter 310, 313 U-2 reconnaissance plane 130 Uber 109 UK Meteorological Office 275 UN Codex Alimentarius 254 UN Family Planning Agency 213 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 254–5 UN General Assembly 305 UNESCO 205 Union Bank of Scotland 281 United Nations 131, 213, 232, 305 United States 34, 122, 125, 138, 139, 176, 200–2, 232, 235–8, 245, 247, 250, 254, 284–5, 286, 302 United States Supreme Court 50 universe: anthropic principle 18–20; designed and planned 7–10; deterministic view 17–18; Lucretian heresy 10–12; Newton’s nudge 12–13; swerve 14–15 University of Czernowitz 106 University of Houston 71 University of Pennsylvania 133 UNIX 302 Urbain Le Verrier 120–1 US Bureau of Land Management 240 US Department of Education 240 US Department of Homeland Security 240, 241 US Federal Reserve 285, 286, 288, 293, 297, 309 US Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission 294 US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) 240 US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration 240 US Office of Management and Budget 290 Utah 89 Uzbekistan 305 Vancouver 92 Vanuatu 81 Vardanes, King 258 Veblen, Thorstein 249 Verdi, Giuseppe: Aida 248; Rigoletto 248 Veronica (search engine) 120 Versailles Treaty (1919) 318 Victoria, Queen 89 Virgil (Publius Vergilius Maro) 10, 23 vitalism 270–1 Vodafone 296 Vogt, William 205, 209; Road to Survival 204 Voltaire, François-Marie Arouet 14, 15, 20, 22, 25, 41, 143, 243, 268; Candide 15 Volvo 101 Wagner, Andreas 47 Wall Street Journal 125, 132 Wallace, Alfred Russell 20, 54–5, 196 Wallison, Peter 294 Walras, Léon 106 Waltham, David, Lucky Planet 19 Walwyn, Thomas 242 Wang Mang, Emperor 267 Wang Zhen 212 Wannsee conference 198 Wapinski, Norm 136 Washington, George 220, 222, 240 Washington Post 241 Watson, James 121, 145 Webb, Beatrice 197 Webb, Richard 5, 319 Webb, Sidney 197 Webcrawler 120 Wedgwood family 38 Wedgwood, Josiah 199 Weismann, August 55 Wells, H.G. 197, 251 West, Edwin 178; Education and the State 177 West, Geoffrey 93 West Indies 134, 286 Whitney, Eli 128 Whittle, Frank 119 Whole Foods 227 Wikipedia 188, 304–5 Wilby, Peter 315 Wilhelm II, Kaiser 198, 247 Wilkins, Maurice 121 Wilkinson, John 278–9 Willeys 278–9, 280 Williams, Thomas 278 Williamson, Kevin 33; The End is Near and it’s Going to be Awesome 238–9 Wilson, Catherine 12 Wilson, Margo 171 Wolf, Alison, Does Education Matter?


Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings by Philip A. Fisher

business climate, business cycle, buy and hold, El Camino Real, estate planning, fixed income, index fund, market bubble, market fundamentalism, profit motive, RAND corporation, the market place, transaction costs

With important new uses such as beryllium copper dies just beginning to be of sales importance, it would seem that the good growth rate of the past ten years may be just an indication of what is to come. This would tend to justify the price-earnings ratio of around 20 at which this stock has frequently sold in the past five years. “Indicating that this growth may continue for many years to come, the Rand Corporation, brilliant research arm of the Air Force owned by the government, has been quoted in the press as predicting an important future in the 1960's for the as yet almost non-existent field of beryllium metal as a structural material. The Rand Corporation, among other things correctly foretold, shortly after the war, the development in titanium. “More immediate than any eventual market that may develop for beryllium as a structural material, 1958 should see this company bring into volume production another brand-new product.

See Price-earnings ratio vs. opportunity significant changes in Price-earnings ratio definition and growth Price ranges, past Printed material, leads from Processes. See also Products Production, low-cost Products Professional advisor. See Financial advisors Profitability Profit margins Profits short-range vs. long-range Promotional companies. See also Young companies Promotion from within Q Quality, of people Quibbling over eighths and quarters R Rand Corporation Raychem Corporation RCA Recessions and bonds Reporting Research, consulting Research and development. See also Market research; Scuttlebutt and size Research scientists, as advisors Risk Rogers Corporation Rohm & Haas Roosevelt, Franklin D. S Safety of investment Sales potential increases in and profit margins research and development and Sales organization Saving, and stock prices Scale School of Random Walkers Scuttlebutt Sears Second dimension, of a conservative investment Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Securities dealers.


pages: 501 words: 114,888

The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives by Peter H. Diamandis, Steven Kotler

Ada Lovelace, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, blood diamonds, Burning Man, call centre, cashless society, Charles Lindbergh, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, Colonization of Mars, computer vision, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Dean Kamen, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, digital twin, disruptive innovation, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, experimental economics, food miles, game design, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, gig economy, Google X / Alphabet X, gravity well, hive mind, housing crisis, Hyperloop, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, late fees, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, lifelogging, loss aversion, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mary Lou Jepsen, mass immigration, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mobile money, multiplanetary species, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, Oculus Rift, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer lending, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, QR code, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart contracts, smart grid, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, stealth mode startup, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supercomputer in your pocket, supply-chain management, technoutopianism, Tesla Model S, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, X Prize

America has almost half-a-million parking spaces: Richard Florida, “Parking Has Eaten American Cities,” CityLab, July 24, 2018. MIT professor of urban planning: Eran Ben-Joseph, ReThinking a Lot (MIT Press, 2012), pp. xi–xix. Hyperloop is the brainchild: For the original whitepaper: https://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha.pdf. Robert Goddard: Malcolm Browne, “New Funds Fuel Magnet Power for Trains,” New York Times, March 3, 1992. RAND corporation: Robert Salter, “The Very High Speed Transit,” Rand Corporation, 1972. See: https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P4874.html. In January 2013: For the full story of Hyperloop One development, see: https://hyperloop-one.com/our-story#partner-program. (Author note: Peter’s VC firm is an investor.) Josh Giegel: Author interview, 2019. It also gave him time to tweet: See: https://twitter.com/elonmusk. with $113 million of Musk’s own money: Dana Hull, “Musk’s Boring Co.

Teaming up with a group of engineers from Tesla and SpaceX, he published a fifty-eight-page concept paper for “The Hyperloop,” a high-speed transportation network that used magnetic levitation to propel passenger pods down vacuum tubes at speeds up to 760 mph. If successful, it would zip you across California in thirty-five minutes—or faster than commercial jets. Musk’s idea wasn’t entirely new. Sci-fi dreamers have long envisioned high-speed travel through low-pressure tubes. In 1909, rocketry pioneer Robert Goddard proposed a vacuum train concept similar to the Hyperloop. In 1972, the RAND Corporation extended this into a supersonic underground railway. But just like flying cars, turning sci-fi into sci-fact required a series of convergences. The first of these convergences wasn’t technological. Rather, it was about the people involved. In January 2013, Musk and venture capitalist Shervin Pishevar were on a humanitarian mission to Cuba when they fell into a discussion about the Hyperloop.


pages: 233 words: 64,479

The Big Shift: Navigating the New Stage Beyond Midlife by Marc Freedman

airport security, Berlin Wall, David Brooks, follow your passion, illegal immigration, Isaac Newton, longitudinal study, McMansion, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, transcontinental railway, working poor, working-age population

The semicolon is an alternative both to the period, designating an ending, and the comma, a brief pause along the way. The semicolon suggests continuity, a genuine break, and more to come. For a life course in desperate need of punctuation, the grown-up gap year is the perfect way to rectify the run-on sentence. Many people are already taking time off, in one form or another. Some even call it retirement. A 2010 study from the RAND Corporation shows that a sizable portion of the U.S. population first retires and then “unretires,” an act researchers find is primarily by design and not the result of unexpected circumstances. In other words, many may be using the cover of retirement, followed by unretirement, as a kind of de facto gap period. And these interludes are hardly exclusive to the United States. In Britain, for example, there are an estimated 200,000 “grey gappers” taking a career break, according to one report.

CHAPTER 7: TEN STEPS TOWARD A NEW STAGE 131 Carl Jung argued that: Carl Jung, “The Stages of Life,” in The Structure and Dynamics of the Psyche, by Carl Jung (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1969). 131 In her groundbreaking “Grandmother Hypothesis”: Kristen Hawkes, “Grandmothers and the Evolution of Human Longevity,” American Journal of Human Biology 15 (2003). 132 Historian Jill Lepore: Jill Lepore, “Baby Talk: The Fuss About Parenthood,” New Yorker, June 29, 2009. 135 the “optimal design for a new stage of life”: “On the Brink of a Brand-New Old Age,” New York Times, January 2, 2001. 135 it’s almost as if the GPS program: I’m indebted to my former colleague John Gomperts for this image. 139 A 2010 study from the RAND Corporation: Nicole Maestas, “Back to Work: Expectations and Realizations of Work After Retirement,” Journal of Human Resources 45, no. 3 (2010): 718–748. 139 In Britain, for example, there are an estimated 200,000: Geraldine Bedell and Rowena Young, eds., The New Old Age: Perspectives on Innovating Our Way to the Good Life for All (London: National Endowment for Science, Technology, and the Arts, 2009), http://www.nesta.org.uk/library/documents/the-new-old-age.pdf. 139 Daniel Pink suggests: Daniel H.


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How We Got Here: A Slightly Irreverent History of Technology and Markets by Andy Kessler

Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, animal electricity, automated trading system, bank run, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Noyce, Bretton Woods, British Empire, buttonwood tree, Claude Shannon: information theory, Corn Laws, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, fiat currency, fixed income, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, Grace Hopper, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, Kickstarter, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Maui Hawaii, Menlo Park, Metcalfe's law, Metcalfe’s law, Mitch Kapor, packet switching, price mechanism, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, profit motive, railway mania, RAND corporation, Robert Metcalfe, Silicon Valley, Small Order Execution System, South Sea Bubble, spice trade, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, tulip mania, Turing machine, Turing test, undersea cable, William Shockley: the traitorous eight

Meanwhile, the British computer industry smoldered in the embers of the burnt Colossus machines. What a turning point. The British Empire had died and now was officially cremated. Work on computers and their acronymic names took off everywhere, with added urgency when the Soviets tested their atomic bomb in 1949: Turing’s MADAM; Maurice Vincent Wilkes’s EDSAC Electronic Delay Storage Automatic Calculator at Cambridge; Rand Corporation’s UNIVAC - Universal Automatic Computer; and topping them all acronymically, Nick Metropolis’ MANIAC - Mathematical and Numerical Integrator and Computer. Each contained more vacuum tubes, more memory and more sophisticated programming. Most were funded directly or indirectly by the Army or Navy, to research guided missiles, hydrogen bombs and aircraft design. These were still vertically organized companies and institutions that insisted on their own computer structure and their own set of codes and software.

It didn’t want no stinking 144 HOW WE GOT HERE theories, it wanted something it could use. NORAD was nervous about being out of touch, especially with its command center dug into the mountains near Cheyenne. So the Air Force sprinkled money around for research on ways to resolve the vulnerability of communications networks, which were dependant on centralized phone switches. Some of it went to the RAND Corporation, a Santa Monica, California think-tank spun out of Douglas Aircraft in 1948 to worry about such things. One researcher there, Paul Baran, was an electrical engineer who had worked at nearby Hughes Aircraft. In August 1964, he laid out his theory in a paper titled “On Distributed Computing.” You can read it at RAND’s website. Baran described standard message blocks and “store and forward” transmissions and hot potato routing.


The Ethical Algorithm: The Science of Socially Aware Algorithm Design by Michael Kearns, Aaron Roth

23andMe, affirmative action, algorithmic trading, Alvin Roth, Bayesian statistics, bitcoin, cloud computing, computer vision, crowdsourcing, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Filter Bubble, general-purpose programming language, Google Chrome, ImageNet competition, Lyft, medical residency, Nash equilibrium, Netflix Prize, p-value, Pareto efficiency, performance metric, personalized medicine, pre–internet, profit motive, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, replication crisis, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Bork, Ronald Coase, self-driving car, short selling, sorting algorithm, speech recognition, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, superintelligent machines, telemarketer, Turing machine, two-sided market, Vilfredo Pareto

The problem is that if I cooperate, you can do even better by sabotaging me and defecting, and vice versa. When we both defect, we each experience close to the worst possible outcome. But since mutual cooperation is not unilaterally stable, we drag each other into the sabotaging abyss of equilibrium, hence the “dilemma”. Despite the simplicity of such games, they have occasionally been applied to rather serious and high-stakes problems. During the Cold War, researchers at the RAND Corporation (a long-standing think tank for political and strategic consulting) and elsewhere used game-theoretic models to try to understand the possible outcomes of US-Soviet nuclear war and détente—efforts that were memorably if darkly lampooned in the 1964 Stanley Kubrick film Dr. Strangelove, which ends with the Prisoner’s Dilemma–like nuclear annihilation of the world. But the lasting influence and scope of game theory (which has also been widely applied to evolutionary biology and many other fields far from its origins) bears testament to the value of deeply understanding a “toy” version of a complex problem.

See also precise specification goal racial data and bias and algorithmic violations of fairness and privacy, 96 and college admissions models, 77 and dating preferences, 94–97 and “fairness gerrymandering,” 86–89 and fairness issues in machine learning, 65–66 and forbidden inputs, 66–67 and Google search, 14–15 and lending decisions, 191 and scope of topics covered, 19 and unique challenges of algorithms, 7 RAND Corporation, 100 randomization and differential privacy, 36–37, 40–44, 47 random lending, 69–71 random sampling, 18–19, 40 and self-play in machine learning, 131–32 and trust in data administrators, 45–47 rare events, 144 regulation of data and algorithms. See laws and regulations reidentification of anonymous data, 22–31, 33–34, 38 relationship status data, 51–52 religious affiliation data, 51–52 reproducibility (replication) crisis, 19–20, 156–60 residency hiring, 126–30 resume evaluation, 60–61 Rock-Paper-Scissors, 99–100, 102–3 Roth, Alvin, 130 RuleFit algorithms, 173 runs on banks, 95–96 sabotage, 99–100 Sandel, Michael, 177–78 SAT tests and fairness vs. accuracy of models, 65, 74–80 and predictive modeling, 8 and word analogy problems, 57 and word embedding models, 59–60 scale issues, 139, 143–45, 192.


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The Bin Ladens: An Arabian Family in the American Century by Steve Coll

American ideology, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, borderless world, Boycotts of Israel, British Empire, business climate, colonial rule, Donald Trump, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial independence, forensic accounting, global village, haute couture, intangible asset, Iridium satellite, Khyber Pass, low earth orbit, margin call, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shock, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, urban planning, Yogi Berra

Mohamed Elmenshawy provided elegant translations and acquired valuable materials during his travels to Egypt. Thanks also to Sunlen Miller, Sami Sockol, Emily Eckland, Alexandra Coll, Emma Coll, Cynthia Zeiss, and Victoria Green for their research and organizing skills Bruce Hoffman, Kim Cragin, Daniel Byman, Martha Crenshaw, Rohan Gunaratna, Nadia Oweidat, Sara Daly, Heather Gregg, and Anna Kasupski of the Rand Corporation’s Early Al Qaeda History Working Group, where I was an ad hoc participant, provided generous support and inspiring scholarship. Anna Kasupski’s work on financial issues proved particularly valuable. In other research forums, Dan Benjamin and Steven Simon made serious discourse unusually enjoyable. As the source notes reflect, Peter Bergen’s journalism and scholarship have been a core resource for this work; his many writings and his oral history, The Osama Bin Laden I Know, provide a foundation for any credible work on Al Qaeda’s development and Osama’s biography.

Clarke, Against All Enemies, p. 39. 3. Coll, Ghost Wars, p. 65, for the U.S. government’s 1981 fiscal year. The brief analysis of U.S. and Saudi governmental attitudes toward the war here and elsewhere in this chapter is drawn from the research for Ghost Wars, chapters 1–5. 4. Al-Rasheed, A History of Saudi Arabia, p. 155. 5. The company had a zakat fund: Interview with Carmen Bin Laden, September 29, 2004. Also, Rand Corporation researcher Anna Kasupski, reviewing materials about the early history of the Services Office in Peshawar, located a 1985 document describing donations from a Bin Laden family foundation. “Rand: Early History of Al Qaeda Working Group, 2006.” 6. Pakistani air force veterans, Mohammed Daoud: Interview with David Grey, February 21, 2006. Karachi in November 1980: Flight logs examined by the author.

KORNBLUH, PETER, ed. The Iran-Contra Affair: The Making of a Scandal, 1983–1988, National Security Archive document set, George Washington University. “The 9/11 COMMISSION REPORT: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States,” July 2004. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office. PROCEEDINGS OF THE EARLY HISTORY OF AL QAEDA WORKING GROUP, 2006–2007, Rand Corporation; Bruce Hoffman and Kim Cragin, co-directors; Daniel Byman, Martha Crenshaw, Peter Bergen, Lawrence Wright, Rohan Gunaratna, Nadia Oweidat, Sara Daly, Heather Gregg, Ann Kasupski, researchers and presenters. RECORDS OF THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE, U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, College Park, Maryland. RECORDS OF THE FEDERAL FOREIGN OFFICE, Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany), Berlin.


pages: 497 words: 124,144

Red Moon Rising by Matthew Brzezinski

Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Columbine, cuban missile crisis, Kitchen Debate, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, skunkworks, trade route, Vanguard fund, walking around money, white picket fence

The same 1954 Land report that had urged the creation of the U-2 had also made a recommendation for the development of another type of high-altitude reconnaissance craft, a satellite. The idea, at the time, had been met with skepticism by the National Security Council, owing to its technological complexity, though it was hardly revolutionary. The notion of using the cosmos as a surveillance platform had long stirred the imagination of rocket scientists and spies on both sides of the cold war divide. As early as 1946, a West Coast military think tank, the RAND Corporation, had envisioned successors of von Braun’s V-2 rockets one day carrying cameras beyond the stratosphere. Von Braun himself had made a similar pitch to the army brass in 1954. “Gone was the folksy fellow with rolled-up sleeves and Disneyesque props,” wrote the historian William Burrows of the meeting. “He was replaced by a grim-faced individual with a dark suit who puffed on cigarettes from behind a desk.

Another trade publication, Astronomer’s Circular, advised its readers, “The Astronomical Council of the USSR Academy of Sciences requests all astronomical organizations, all astronomers of the Soviet Union, and all members of the All-Union Astronomical and Geodetic Society to participate actively in preparations for the visual observation of artificial satellites.” The message from Moscow was loud and clear: a Soviet satellite would soon be orbiting the earth, and ordinary citizens would be able to see and hear it. The warning signals did not fall completely on deaf ears in America. The New York Times started researching a story about an impending Soviet launch. The RAND Corporation also carefully clipped all the Soviet press briefs and forwarded them to the Pentagon with an appended note concluding that the Soviets must be serious. But in Washington, no one had time for talk of satellites. The country was in the throes of a looming crisis that had begun with the opening of the school year and was quickly escalating into a major challenge to President Eisenhower’s authority

“Father thirsted for revenge”: Author telephone interview with Sergei Khrushchev, November 27, 2005. 131 “They blamed us”: Richard Nixon, RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon (New York: Grosset and Dunlap, 1978), p. 182. a Ford repair shop at Fifth and K streets: Bissell, Reflections of a Cold Warrior, p. 104. “I don’t ‘believe’ that the Soviets are ahead”: New York Times, February 6, 1957. 132 “Every day we don’t reverse our policy is a bad day for the Free World”: Ibid., August 18, 1957. a West Coast military think tank, the RAND Corporation: Dickson, Sputnik, p. 46. “Gone was the folksy fellow”: Burrows, This New Ocean, p. 145. 133 SR-71 Blackbird: http://www.sr-71.org/blackbird/sr-71/html. Bissell was alarmed that it was not even at the blueprint stage: Bissell, Reflections of a Cold Warrior, p. 134. 134 to personally inspect every Jupiter C launch: Bergaust, Wernher von Braun, p. 243. “I knew our national effort”: Bissell, Reflections of a Cold Warrior, p. 134. 135 “in view of the competition we might face”: http://www.history.nasa.gov/sputnik/chapter2.html.


pages: 448 words: 117,325

Click Here to Kill Everybody: Security and Survival in a Hyper-Connected World by Bruce Schneier

23andMe, 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Brian Krebs, business process, cloud computing, cognitive bias, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Heinemeier Hansson, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, fault tolerance, Firefox, Flash crash, George Akerlof, industrial robot, information asymmetry, Internet of things, invention of radio, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, loose coupling, market design, medical malpractice, Minecraft, MITM: man-in-the-middle, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, national security letter, Network effects, pattern recognition, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, ransomware, Rodney Brooks, Ross Ulbricht, security theater, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart transportation, Snapchat, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, The Market for Lemons, too big to fail, Uber for X, Unsafe at Any Speed, uranium enrichment, Valery Gerasimov, web application, WikiLeaks, zero day

Murdoch and Ross Anderson (9 Nov 2014), “Security protocols and evidence: Where many payment systems fail,” FC 2014: International Conference on Financial Cryptography and Data Security, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-662-45472-5_2. 100Amazingly, the UK may make this: Patrick Jenkins and Sam Jones (25 May 2016), “Bank customers may cover cost of fraud under new UK proposals,” Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/e335211c-2105-11e6-aa98-db1e01fabc0c. 100And similarly, in the US: Federal Trade Commission (Aug 2012), “Lost or stolen credit, ATM, and debit cards,” https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/0213-lost-or-stolen-credit-atm-and-debit-cards. 101“security is a tax on the honest”: Bruce Schneier (2012), Liars and Outliers: Enabling the Trust That Society Needs to Thrive, Wiley, http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Wiley Title/productCd-1118143302.html. 101“guard labor”: Arjun Jayadev and Samuel Bowles (Apr 2006), “Guard labor,” Journal of Development Economics 79, no. 2, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387806000125. 101The tech analyst firm Gartner estimates: Gartner (16 Aug 2017), “Gartner says worldwide information security spending will grow 7 percent to reach $86.4 billion in 2017,” https://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3784965. 101If we want more security: Allison Gatlin (8 Feb 2016), “Cisco, IBM, Dell M&A brawl may whack Symantec, Palo Alto, Fortinet,” Investor’s Business Daily, https://www.investors.com/news/technology/cisco-ibm-dell-ma-brawl-whacks-symantec-palo-alto-fortinet. 102A 2017 Ponemon Institute report concluded: Ponemon Institute (20 Jun 2017) “2017 cost of data breach study,” http://info.resilientsystems.com/hubfs/IBM_Resilient_Branded_Content/White_Papers/2017_Global_CODB_Report_Final.pdf. 102A Symantec report estimated: Symantec Corporation (23 Jan 2018), “2017 Norton cyber security insights report: Global results,” https://www.symantec.com/content/dam/symantec/docs/about/2017-ncsir-global-results-en.pdf. 103“We found that resulting values are”: I was a member of the steering committee for this research project. Paul Dreyer et al. (14 Jan 2018), “Estimating the global cost of cyber risk,” RAND Corporation, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2299.html. 6. WHAT A SECURE INTERNET+ LOOKS LIKE 105“disconcerting lack of regard”: Finn Lützow-Holm Myrstad (1 Dec 2016), “#Toyfail: An analysis of consumer and privacy issues in three internet-connected toys,” Forbrukerrådet, https://consumermediallc.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/toyfail_report_desember2016.pdf. 106Germany banned My Friend Cayla: Philip Oltermann (17 Feb 2017), “German parents told to destroy doll that can spy on children,” Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/17/german-parents-told-to-destroy-my-friend-cayla-doll-spy-on-children. 106Mattel’s Hello Barbie had: Samuel Gibbs (26 Nov 2015), “Hackers can hijack Wi-Fi Hello Barbie to spy on your children,” Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/nov/26/hackers-can-hijack-wi-fi-hello-barbie-to-spy-on-your-children. 106In 2017, the consumer credit-reporting agency Equifax: Tara Siegel Bernard et al. (7 Sep 2017), “Equifax says cyberattack may have affected 143 million in the U.S.,” New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/business/equifax-cyberattack.html.

Dan Goodin (17 May 2017), “Fearing Shadow Brokers leak, NSA reported critical flaw to Microsoft,” Ars Technica, https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/05/fearing-shadow-brokers-leak-nsa-reported-critical-flaw-to-microsoft. 165Vulnerabilities are independently discovered: Andy Greenberg (7 Jan 2018), “Triple Meltdown: How so many researchers found a 20-year-old chip flaw at the same time,” Wired, https://www.wired.com/story/meltdown-spectre-bug-collision-intel-chip-flaw-discovery. 165This implies that if the US government: In 2017, I tried to estimate the annual rate of rediscovery, using available data sets, and found it to be between 11% and 22%. Independently, a group of researchers from the RAND Corporation tried to estimate it as well, using different assumptions and a different data set; they found the rate to be less than 6%. We’re all blind folks touching different parts of the elephant. We each extrapolate from our own tiny pieces of data. Clearly we’re not going to learn much about the NSA’s capabilities this way. Trey Herr, Bruce Schneier, and Christopher Morris (7 Mar 2017), “Taking stock: Estimating vulnerability recovery,” Belfer Cyber Security Project White Paper Series, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?

Trey Herr, Bruce Schneier, and Christopher Morris (7 Mar 2017), “Taking stock: Estimating vulnerability recovery,” Belfer Cyber Security Project White Paper Series, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2928758. Lillian Ablon and Timothy Bogart (9 Mar 2017), “Zero days, thousands of nights: The life and times of zero-day vulnerabilities and their exploits,” RAND Corporation, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1751.html. 165Plus, NOBUS doesn’t take into account: Scott Shane, Matthew Rosenberg, and Andrew W. Lehren (7 Mar 2017), “WikiLeaks releases trove of alleged C.I.A. hacking documents,” New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/07/world/europe/wikileaks-cia-hacking.html.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/12/us/nsa-shadow-brokers.html. Scott Shane, Nicole Perlroth, and David E.


pages: 410 words: 119,823

Radical Technologies: The Design of Everyday Life by Adam Greenfield

3D printing, Airbnb, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, bank run, barriers to entry, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, business intelligence, business process, call centre, cellular automata, centralized clearinghouse, centre right, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, cloud computing, collective bargaining, combinatorial explosion, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, Conway's Game of Life, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, dematerialisation, digital map, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, drone strike, Elon Musk, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, fiat currency, global supply chain, global village, Google Glasses, IBM and the Holocaust, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Conway, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, late capitalism, license plate recognition, lifelogging, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, megacity, megastructure, minimum viable product, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, natural language processing, Network effects, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, Pearl River Delta, performance metric, Peter Eisenman, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, post scarcity, post-work, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, RFID, rolodex, Satoshi Nakamoto, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, social intelligence, sorting algorithm, special economic zone, speech recognition, stakhanovite, statistical model, stem cell, technoutopianism, Tesla Model S, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, transaction costs, Uber for X, undersea cable, universal basic income, urban planning, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce

In urban planning, the idea that certain kinds of challenges are susceptible to algorithmic resolution has a long pedigree. It’s present in the Corbusian doctrine that the ideal and correct ratio of spatial provisioning in a city can be calculated from nothing more than an enumeration of the population, it underpins the complex composite indices Jay Forrester devised in his groundbreaking 1969 Urban Dynamics, and it lay at the heart of the RAND Corporation’s (eventually disastrous) intervention in the management of 1970s New York City.40 No doubt part of the idea’s appeal to smart-city advocates, too, is the familial resemblance such an algorithm would bear to the formulae by which commercial real-estate developers calculate air rights, the land area that must be reserved for parking in a community of a given size, and so on. These are tools developers already know how to use, and in the right context and at the appropriate scale, they are surely helpful.

“Economic and Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes, 2010 (Revised),” May 2015, crashstats. nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812013. 11.Lt. Col. Dave Grossman, On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill In War and Society, London: Little, Brown, 1995. 12.The reality of the US remote assassination program is comprehensively detailed in the Intercept, “The Drone Papers,” October 15, 2015, theintercept.com. 13.Daniel Gonzales and Sarah Harting, “Designing Unmanned Systems With Greater Autonomy,” Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2014. For a poignant, if chilling, depiction of an autonomous combat system nearing the threshold of self-awareness, see Peter Watts, “Malak,” rifters.com, 2010. 14.American Civil Liberties Union, “War Comes Home: The Excessive Militarization of American Policing,” June 2014, aclu.org; see also Daniel H. Else, “The ‘1033 Program,’ Department of Defense Support to Law Enforcement,” Congressional Research Service, August 28, 2014, fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R43701.pdf. 15.Alex Williams and Nick Srnicek, “#ACCELERATE MANIFESTO for an Accelerationist Politics,” Critical Legal Thinking, May 14, 2013; Novara Media, “Fully Automated Luxury Communism,” podcast, June 2015, novaramedia.com/2015/06/fully-automated-luxury-communism/. 16.Shulamith Firestone, The Dialectic of Sex, New York: Bantam Books, 1971. 17.Valerie Solanas, SCUM Manifesto, New York: Olympia Press, 1968. 18.Quoctrung Bui, “Map: The Most Common* Job In Every State,” National Public Radio, February 5, 2015, npr.org. 19.Elon Musk, “Master Plan, Part Deux,” July 20, 2016, tesla.com. 20.See the site of Amazon’s fully owned robotics subsidiary at amazonrobotics.com, and the video of one of its warehouses in operation at youtube.com/watch?

., 195 Ostrom, Elinor, 171 output neuron, 215 overtransparency, 240–1, 243 Pai, Sidhant, 98 Pandora music service, 220 Panmunjom Truce Village, 65 Pareto optimality, 55, 59 Paris, 1–6, 292 Pasquale, Frank, 244, 253 path dependence, 232, 299 PayPal, 120, 136, 220 PCWorld, 45 People Analytics, 198, 226, 232 perceptron, 214 Père Lachaise cemetery, 2, 5, 26 persoonskaart, Dutch identity card, 60 Pew Research Center, 41, 193 Pinellas County, Florida, 256 Placemeter, 51 polylactic acid plastic filament (PLA), 94, 98, 101 Pokémon Go, 63–5, 76, 79 Polari, 311 policy network, 264 Pollock, Jackson, 261 Pony Express, 256 porosity, 28, 173 POSIWID, 155, 302 Postcapitalism (Paul Mason), 88 power/knowledge, 62 predictive policing, 227, 230, 232, 235 PredPol, 229, 231, 236, 244, 254 proof-of-work, 128–30, 140–1, 143, 290 prosopagnosia. See faceblindness Protoprint, 99–100, 102 provisioning of mobile phone service, 17, 56 Průša, Josef, 105 psychogeography, 40, 51 Quantified Self movement, 33–6, 40 Radical Networks conference, 314 radio frequency identification (RFID), 200, 296 Radiohead, 35 RAND Corporation, 56–8 RATP, 5 recall, 217, 234–5 redboxing, 229–30 regtech, 157 Reich, Robert, 196 Relentless (AN and Omerod), 265 Rensi, Ed, 195 RepRap 3D printer, 86–7, 93, 104–5, 306 RER, 2, 5 Richelieu, Cardinal, 62 Rifkin, Jeremy, 88, 205, 312 RiteAid, 197 Riverton, Wyoming, 63 Royal Dutch Shell Long-Term Studies Group, 287 Samsung, 285–6 Sandvig, Christian, 252 “Satoshi Nakamoto,” 115, 118, 147, 303 scenario planning, 287 Schneier, Bruce, 45, 243 Scott, James C., 311 SCUM Manifesto (Valerie Solanas), 191 Seoul, 6, 18, 54, 264–5, 284 Metro, 54 Sennett, Richard, 111 sentiment analysis, 198 Serra, Richard, 70 SHA–256 hashing algorithm, 123 Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, 18–19, 43 Shodan search engine, 43 Shoreditch, London neighborhood, 136 Shteyngart, Gary, 246 Sidewalk Labs.


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Media Control: The Spectacular Achievements of Propaganda by Noam Chomsky

British Empire, declining real wages, feminist movement, Howard Zinn, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, strikebreaker

The official definition is unusable. It's unusable for two important reasons. First of all, it's a very close paraphrase of official government policy-very close, in fact. When it's government policy, it's called low-intensity conflict or counterterror. Incidentally, it's not just the United States. As far as I'm aware, this practice is universal. Just as an example, back in the mid 1960s the Rand Corporation, the research agency connected with the Pentagon mostly, published a collection of interesting Japanese counterinsurgency manuals having to do with the Japanese attack on Manchuria and North China in the 1930s. I was kind of interested-I wrote an article on it at the time comparing the Japanese counterinsurgency manuals with U.S. counterinsurgency manuals for South Vietnam, which are virtually identical.s That article didn't fly too well, I should say.


pages: 251 words: 76,868

How to Run the World: Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance by Parag Khanna

Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, back-to-the-land, bank run, blood diamonds, Bob Geldof, borderless world, BRICs, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, charter city, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, commoditize, continuation of politics by other means, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, don't be evil, double entry bookkeeping, energy security, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, friendly fire, global village, Google Earth, high net worth, index fund, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Kickstarter, laissez-faire capitalism, Live Aid, Masdar, mass immigration, megacity, microcredit, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, New Urbanism, off grid, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, out of africa, Parag Khanna, private military company, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, sustainable-tourism, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, X Prize

The bottom line, says Kate Willard, another AID leader, is that “there are far more players working on far more levels of global policy than any single organization can reflect.” Thanks to AID, these students are prepared for the open yet sometimes opaque world of neo-medieval diplomacy in which individuals can play multiple roles and juggle multiple issues at the same time. There is no better example of this than Zalmay Khalilzad. After the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the ouster of the Taliban, Khalilzad—an Afghan American working for the RAND Corporation—was appointed special envoy and then ambassador to the country. Armed with knowledge of Dari and Pashto and billions of U.S. dollars, and eventually backed by tens of thousands of American troops, he set about nation building and playing warlord politics. For three years he was constantly whispering in Afghan president Hamid Karzai’s ear, and allegedly also in the ears of his opponents, earning him the label “viceroy.”

New York: Zed Books, 2003. Rodrik, Dani. In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2003. ———. One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2008. Ronfeldt, David. Tribes, Institutions, Markets, Networks: A Framework About Societal Evolution. Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 1996. Root, Hilton L. Alliance Curse: How America Lost the Third World. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2008. Rosenau, James N. Distant Proximities: The Dynamics and Dialectics of Globalization. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2003. ———. Turbulence in World Politics: A Theory of Change and Continuity. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1990. Rosenau, James N., and Ernst-Otto Czempiel, eds.


pages: 296 words: 78,631

Hello World: Being Human in the Age of Algorithms by Hannah Fry

23andMe, 3D printing, Air France Flight 447, Airbnb, airport security, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Brixton riot, chief data officer, computer vision, crowdsourcing, DARPA: Urban Challenge, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, Firefox, Google Chrome, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, John Markoff, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, RAND corporation, ransomware, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, selection bias, self-driving car, Shai Danziger, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Snapchat, speech recognition, Stanislav Petrov, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steven Levy, Tesla Model S, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web of trust, William Langewiesche

Using a variety of factors, it creates a ‘heat list’ of people it deems most likely to be involved in gun violence in the near future, either doing the shooting or being shot. The theory is sound: today’s victims are often tomorrow’s perpetrators. And the programme is well intentioned: officers visit people on the watch list to offer access to intervention programmes and help to turn their lives around. But there are concerns that the Strategic Subject List might not be living up to its promise. One recent investigation by the non-profit RAND Corporation concluded that appearing on it actually made no difference to an individual’s likelihood of being involved in a shooting.41 It did, however, mean they were more likely to be arrested. Perhaps – the report concluded – this was because officers were simply treating the watch list as a list of suspects whenever a shooting occurred. Predictive policing algorithms undoubtedly show promise, and the people responsible for creating them are undoubtedly doing so in good faith, with good intentions.

(TV show) 97–9 John Carter (film) 180 Johnson, Richard 50, 51 Jones Beach 1 Jones, Robert 13–14 judges anchoring effect 73 bail, factors for consideration 73 decision-making consistency in 51 contradictions in 52–3 differences in 52 discretion in 53 unbiased 77 judges (continued) discrimination and bias 70–1, 75 intuition and considered thought 72 lawyers’ preference over algorithms 76–7 vs machines 59–61 offenders’ preference over algorithms 76 perpetuation of bias 73 sentencing 53–4, 63 use of algorithms 63, 64 Weber’s Law 74–5 Jukebox 192 junk algorithms 200 Just Noticeable Difference 74 justice 49–78 algorithms and 54–6 justification for 77 appeals process 51 Brixton riots 49–51 by country Australia 53 Canada 54 England 54 Ireland 54 Scotland 54 United States 53, 54 Wales 54 discretion of judges 53 discrimination 70–1 humans vs machines 59–61, 62–4 hypothetical cases (UK research) 52–3 defendants appearing twice 52–3 differences in judgement 52, 53 hypothetical cases (US research) 51–2 differences in judgements 52 differences in sentencing 52 inherent injustice 77 machine bias 65–71 maximum terms 54 purpose of 77–8 re-offending 54, 55 reasonable doubt 51 rehabilitation 55 risk-assessment algorithms 56 sentencing consistency in 51 mitigating factors in 53 substantial grounds 51 Kadoodle 15–16 Kahneman, Daniel 72 Kanevsky, Dr Jonathan 93, 95 kangaroos 128 Kant, Immanuel 185 Kasparov, Gary 5-7, 202 Kelly, Frank 87 Kerner, Winifred 188–9 Kernighan, Brian x Killingbeck 145, 146 Larson, Steve 188–9 lasers 119–20 Leibniz, Gottfried 184 Leroi, Armand 186, 192–3 level 0 (driverless technology) 131 level 1 (driverless technology) 131 level 2 (driverless technology) 131, 136 careful attention 134–5 level 3 (driverless technology) 131 technical challenge 136 level 4 (driverless technology) 131 level 5 (driverless technology) 131 Li Yingyun 45 Lickel, Charles 97–8 LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) 119–20 life insurance 109 ‘Lockdown’ (52Metro) 177 logic 8 logical instructions 8 London Bridge 172 London School of Economics (LSE) 129 Loomis, Eric 217n38 Los Angeles Police Department 152, 155 Lucas, Teghan 161–2, 163 machine-learning algorithms 10–11 neural networks 85–6 random forests 58–9 machines art and 194 bias in 65–71 diagnostic 98–101, 110–11 domination of humans 5-6 vs humans 59–61, 62–4 paradoxical relationship with 22–3 recognising images 84–7 superior judgement of 16 symbolic dominance over humans 5-6 Magic Test 199 magical illusions 18 mammogram screenings 94, 96 manipulation 39–44 micro-manipulation 42–4 Maple, Jack 147–50 Marx, Gary 173 mastectomies 83, 84, 92, 94 maternity wards, deaths on 81 mathematical certainty 68 mathematical objects 8 McGrayne, Sharon Bertsch 122 mechanized weaving machines 2 Medicaid assistance 16–17 medical conditions, algorithms for 96–7 medical records 102–7 benefits of algorithms 106 DeepMind 104–5 disconnected 102–3 misuse of data 106 privacy 105–7 medicine 79–112 in ancient times 80 cancer diagnoses study 79–80 complexity of 103–4 diabetic retinopathy 96 diagnostic machines 98–101, 110–11 choosing between individuals and the population 111 in fifteenth-century China 81 Hippocrates and 80 magic and 80 medical records 102–6 neural networks 85–6, 95, 96, 219–20n11 in nineteenth-century Europe 81 pathology 79, 82–3 patterns in data 79–81 predicting dementia 90–2 scientific base 80 see also Watson (IBM computer) Meehl, Paul 21–2 MegaFace challenge 168–9 Mercedes 125–6 microprocessors x Millgarth 145, 146 Mills, Tamara 101–2, 103 MIT Technology Review 101 modern inventions 2 Moses, Robert 1 movies see films music 176–80 choosing 176–8 diversity of charts 186 emotion and 189 genetic algorithms 191–2 hip hop 186 piano experiment 188–90 algorithm 188, 189–91 popularity 177, 178 quality 179, 180 terrible, success of 178–9 Music Lab 176–7, 179, 180 Musk, Elon 138 MyHeritage 110 National Geographic ­Genographic project 110 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 135 Navlab 117 Netflix 8, 188 random forests 59 neural networks 85–6, 95, 119, 201, 219–20n11 driverless cars 117–18 in facial recognition 166–7 predicting performances of films 183 New England Journal of ­Medicine 94 New York City subway crime 147–50 anti-social behaviour 149 fare evasion 149 hotspots 148, 149 New York Police Department (NYPD) 172 New York Times 116 Newman, Paul 127–8, 130 NHS (National Health Service) computer virus in hospitals 105 data security record 105 fax machines 103 linking of healthcare records 102–3 paper records 103 prioritization of non-smokers for operations 106 nuclear war 18–19 Nun Study 90–2 obesity 106 OK Cupid 9 Ontario 169–70 openworm project 13 Operation Lynx 145–7 fingerprints 145 overruling algorithms correctly 19–20 incorrectly 20–1 Oxbotica 127 Palantir Technologies 31 Paris Auto Show (2016) 124–5 parole 54–5 Burgess’s forecasting power 55–6 violation of 55–6 passport officers 161, 164 PathAI 82 pathologists 82 vs algorithms 88 breast cancer research on corpses 92–3 correct diagnoses 83 differences of opinion 83–4 diagnosing cancerous tumours 90 sensitivity and 88 specificity and 88 pathology 79, 82 and biology 82–3 patterns in data 79–81, 103, 108 payday lenders 35 personality traits 39 advertising and 40–1 inferred by algorithm 40 research on 39–40 Petrov, Stanislav 18–19 piano experiment 188–90 pigeons 79–80 Pomerleau, Dean 118–19 popularity 177, 178, 179, 183–4 power 5–24 blind faith in algorithms 13–16 overruling algorithms 19–21 struggle between humans and algorithms 20–4 trusting algorithms 16–19 power of veto 19 Pratt, Gill 137 precision in justice 53 prediction accuracy of 66, 67, 68 algorithms vs humans 22, 59–61, 62–5 Burgess 55–6 of crime burglary 150–1 HunchLab algorithm 157–8 PredPol algorithm 152–7, 158 risk factor 152 Strategic Subject List algorithm 158 decision trees 56–8 dementia 90–2 prediction (continued) development of abnormalities 87, 95 homicide 62 of personality 39–42 of popularity 177, 178, 179, 180, 183–4 powers of 92–6 of pregnancy 29–30 re-offending criminals 55–6 recidivism 62, 63–4, 65 of successful films 180–1, 182–3, 183 superiority of algorithms 22 see also Clinical vs Statistical Prediction (Meehl); neural networks predictive text 190–1 PredPol (PREDictive POL­icing) 152–7, 158, 228–9n27 assessing locations at risk 153–4 cops on the dots 155–6 fall in crime 156 feedback loop 156–7 vs humans, test 153–4 target hardening 154–5 pregnancy prediction 29–30 prescriptive sentencing systems 53, 54 prioritization algorithms 8 prisons cost of incarceration 61 Illinois 55, 56 reduction in population 61 privacy 170, 172 false sense of 47 issues 25 medical records 105–7 overriding of 107 sale of data 36–9 probabilistic inference 124, 127 probability 8 ProPublica 65–8, 70 quality 179, 180 ‘good’ changing nature of 184 defining 184 quantifying 184–8 difficulty of 184 Washington Post experiment 185–6 racial groups COMPAS algorithm 65–6 rates of arrest 68 radar 119–20 RAND Corporation 158 random forests technique 56–9 rape 141, 142 re-offending 54 prediction of 55–6 social types of inmates 55, 56 recidivism 56, 62, 201 rates 61 risk scores 63–4, 65 regulation of algorithms 173 rehabilitation 55 relationships 9 Republican voters 41 Rhode Island 61 Rio de Janeiro–Galeão International Airport 132 risk scores 63–4, 65 Robinson, Nicholas 49, 50, 50–1, 77 imprisonment 51 Rossmo, Kim 142–3 algorithm 145–7 assessment of 146 bomb factories 147 buffer zone 144 distance decay 144 flexibility of 146 stagnant water pools 146–7 Operation Lynx 145–7 Rotten Tomatoes website 181 Royal Free NHS Trust 222–3n48 contract with DeepMind 104–5 access to full medical histories 104–5 outrage at 104 Rubin’s vase 211n13 rule-based algorithms 10, 11, 85 Rutherford, Adam 110 Safari browser 47 Sainsbury’s 27 Salganik, Matthew 176–7, 178 Schmidt, Eric 28 School Sisters of Notre Dame 90, 91 Science magazine 15 Scunthorpe 2 search engines 14–15 experiment 14–15 Kadoodle 15–16 Semmelweis, Ignaz 81 sensitivity, principle of 87, 87–8 sensors 120 sentencing algorithms for 62–4 COMPAS 63, 64 considerations for 62–3 consistency in 51 length of 62–3 influencing 73 Weber’s Law 74–5 mitigating factors in 53 prescriptive systems 53, 54 serial offenders 144, 145 serial rapists 141–2 Sesame Credit 45–6, 168 sexual attacks 141–2 shoplifters 170 shopping habits 28, 29, 31 similarity 187 Slash X (bar) 113, 114, 115 smallpox inoculation 81 Snowden, David 90–2 social proof 177–8, 179 Sorensen, Alan 178 Soviet Union detection of enemy missiles 18 protecting air space 18 retaliatory action 19 specificity, principle of 87, 87–8 speech recognition algorithms 9 Spotify 176, 188 Spotify Discover 188 Sreenivasan, Sameet 181–2 Stammer, Neil 172 Standford University 39–40 STAT website 100 statistics 143 computational 12 modern 107 NYPD 172 Stilgoe, Jack 128–9, 130 Strategic Subject List 158 subway crime see New York City subway crime supermarkets 26–8 superstores 28–31 Supreme Court of Wisconsin 64, 217n38 swine flu 101–2 Talley, Steve 159, 162, 163–4, 171, 230n47 Target 28–31 analysing unusual data ­patterns 28–9 expectant mothers 28–9 algorithm 29, 30 coupons 29 justification of policy 30 teenage pregnancy incident 29–30 target hardening 154–5 teenage pregnancy 29–30 Tencent YouTu Lab algorithm 169 Tesco 26–8 Clubcard 26, 27 customers buying behaviour 26–7 knowledge about 27 loyalty of 26 vouchers 27 online shopping 27–8 ‘My Favourites’ feature 27–8 removal of revealing items 28 Tesla 134, 135 autopilot system 138 full autonomy 138 full self-driving hardware 138 Thiel, Peter 31 thinking, ways of 72 Timberlake, Justin 175–6 Timberlake, Justin (artist) 175–6 Tolstoy, Leo 194 TomTom sat-nav 13–14 Toyota 137, 210n13 chauffeur mode 139 guardian mode 139 trolley problem 125–6 true positives 67 Trump election campaign 41, 44 trust 17–18 tumours 90, 93–4 Twain, Mark 193 Twitter 36, 37, 40 filtering 10 Uber driverless cars 135 human intervention 135 uberPOOL 10 United Kingdom (UK) database of facial images 168 facial recognition algorithms 161 genetic tests for Huntington’s disease 110 United States of America (USA) database of facial images 168 facial recognition algorithms 161 life insurance stipulations 109 linking of healthcare ­records 103 University of California 152 University of Cambridge research on personality traits 39–40 and advertising 40–1 algorithm 40 personality predictions 40 and Twitter 40 University of Oregon 188–90 University of Texas M.


pages: 232

Planet of Slums by Mike Davis

barriers to entry, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Brownian motion, centre right, clean water, conceptual framework, crony capitalism, declining real wages, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, edge city, European colonialism, failed state, Gini coefficient, Hernando de Soto, housing crisis, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, jitney, jobless men, Kibera, labor-force participation, land reform, land tenure, liberation theology, low-wage service sector, mandelbrot fractal, market bubble, megacity, microcredit, Nelson Mandela, New Urbanism, Pearl River Delta, Ponzi scheme, RAND corporation, rent control, structural adjustment programs, surplus humans, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, working poor

"The future of warfare," the journal of the Army War College declared, "lies in the streets, sewers, highrise buildings, and sprawl of houses that form the broken cities of the world.... Our recent military history is punctuated with city names — Tuzla, Mogadishu, Los Angeles [!], Beirut, Panama City, Hue, Saigon, Santo Domingo — but these encounters have been but a prologue, with the real drama still to come."8 To help develop a larger conceptual framework for MOUT, military planners turned in the 1990s to Dr. Strangelove's old alma mater, the Santa Monica-based RAND Corporation. RAND, a nonprofit think tank established by the Air Force in 1948, was notorious for wargaming nuclear Armageddon in the 1950s and for helping to strategize the Vietnam War in the 1960s. These days RAND does cities: its researchers ponder urban crime statistics, inner-city public health, and the privatization of public education. They also run the Army's Arroyo Center, which has published a small library of studies on the social contexts and tactical mechanics of urban warfare.

tenure 80 slum-dwellers 32 Konadu-Agyemang, Kwadwo 84—5, 96 structural adjustment programs Korff, Riidiger 65, 83, 183 155-6 Korogocho 44 Khulna City 128 Krasheninnokov, Alexey 166 Kibaki, Mwai 101 Krishnakumar, Asha 140-1 Kibera 92, 94, 95, 101, 139, 143, 145 Krung Thep see Bangkok kidney trade 190 Kuala Lumpur 47, 111, 188 Kingston 32 Kumasi 35, 141-2 Kinshasa 191-8 inequalities 97 Lagos military planning 204 anti-IMF protests 162 population 4 "architecture of fear" 116 public services 155 beautification campaign 104 sewage 139 economic recession 14 slum-dwellers 23, 25 environmental disasters 129 urbanization 2, 16 evictions 101, 102 water 146 fires 128 Kipling, Rudyard 22, 138 land speculation 87 Kirkby, Richard 62 military planning 204 Klak, Thomas 67 overcrowding 93—4 Kohl, Helmut 153 population 4, 5 - 6 Kolkata (Calcutta) relocations 98 Dhapa dump 47 renting 35 evictions 101—2 road networks 119 housing 66 sewage 138 informal sector 181—2 slum-dwellers 23 inner city poverty 32 street-dwellers 36—7 Kipling on 22 structural adjustment programs NGOs 77 152 overcrowding 92 traffic accidents 132, 133 population 4 urbanization 1, 2, 8 poverty line 25n20 Victoria Island 115 privies 143 land speculation 82, 84-9, 91 refugees 55-6 land-titling 80-2, 90 rickshaws 189-90 landlordism 42-3, 44, 82-4, 86-7, 89 slum dwellers 26, 27 see also renting landslides 122-3 Lisbon 42 Laquian, Aprodicio 177 Lobito 49 Larkin, Emmet 16 London 82-3, 94, 175 Latin America conservative reform 81 Los Angeles 12, 16, 36, 124, 203 Luanda inequality 157—8 evictions 102-3 informal sector 176-7, 180, 182 growth of 16 inner-city poverty 32 poverty 25 labor 46-7 refugees 49 loss of manufacturing segregation 97 employment 164 modernization 15 unemployment 164 water sales 145—6 NGOs 77 Lubove, Roy 92 renting 43 Luce, Edward 171 rural migrants 46 Lusaka sanitation problems 137, 139, 148 demolitions 111 semi-proletarianization 174 disease 143 slow urban growth 54—5 poverty 31 squatting 38, 39, 83 segregation 96 structural adjustment programs shantytowns 37 155, 156 urbanization 5, 8, 10, 59-60 sites-and-services scheme 74 urban migration 51 women 158—9 Layachi, Azzedine 125-6 McNamara, Robert 71, 72, 75 Lee-Smith, Diana 44 magic 194, 195, 196-8 Lesbet, Djaffar 65 Malan, Rian 60-1 Lewis, Oscar 32 Malawi 97 liberalization 15, 155-6, 175 Malaysia 9, 26, 47, 188 Lilongwe 97 Mallaby, Sebastian 75, 76 Lima Mamayes 122 earthquakes 127 Managua 118-19 housing 34, 67 Manchester 16, 137, 138 middle classes 33 Mandalay 47-8, 107 population 4 Mangin, William 71 poverty 26-7, 32, 157 Manila squatters 89 beautification campaigns 104 urbanization 1, 16 class conflicts 98-9 Manila (Cont'd.) fires 127, 128 flooding 123-4 gated communities 116 structural adjustment programs 148, 152-3 urbanization 16 Mexico City hazardous slum locations 121 disease 143-4 land ownership 84 environmental disasters 126, 129, land prices 9 2 , 9 9 130 land-titling 82 housing 61—2 population 4 land ownership 91 poverty 26 loss of manufacturing Smoky Mountain 47, 127 employment 164 water sales 145 pollution 129, 133, 137 World Bank project 73 population 2n6, 4, 5 Manshiyet Nasr 93 region-based urbanization 10 Maoism 53, 56 regularization 80-1 Maputo 25, 143 renting 43, 45 Marcos, Imelda 73, 104 rural migrants 46, 55 Marcus, Steven 137-8, 174 Santa Cruz Meyehualco 47 Maroko 101 satellite cities 99 Marx, Karl 16 slum-dwellers 23, 26, 27, 31 Marxism 174 taxation 68 Mathare 142 urban growth 17, 59-60 Mathey, Kosta 66 Meyer, Hannes 61 Mayhew, Henry 20 micro-enterprises 80, 179, 180, 181, Mbuji-Mayi 8 megacities 2, 4, 5-8, 50-1, 147 megaslums 26, 28, 92, 150 183-4 middle classes 32, 43, 157, 202 car use 132,133 Megawati Sukarnoputri 113 housing policy 65, 66, 69 Mehta, Suketu 141 India 97, 100, 150, 171, 172 Mejfa, Manuel 105-6 inner-city housing 83 Mexico land ownership 91 debt crisis 159 property investment 86 housing 67 Russia 166 informal sector 176-7 tax evasion 67 poverty 26, 32, 157, 164-5, 184 World Bank urban projects 73, 74 rural areas 11 slum-dwellers 23, 24 see also elites; social class Middle East 39, 58, 165, 185 migrants 27-9, 46, 51-61, 168n63, 169-70, 172 sewage 138, 140 slum-dwellers 1 8 , 2 3 , 2 6 , 3 1 Milanovic, Branko 21 street-dwellers 36 military planning 202-6 urban development authorities Mitchell, Timothy 85 68-9 Mitlin, Diana 77 water sales 145 Mobutu, Sese Seko 58-9, 191, 192, women 141 193, 194 World Bank project 73-4 Mogadishu 203 Mwacan, Angeline 146 Mohan, Rakesh 40 Mwangi, Meja 138 Moi, Daniel Arap 101 Myanmar (Burma) 52, 107-8 Molina, Humberto 86 Mombasa 18 Nairobi Monrovia 137 child mortality 146 Montevideo 32-3 colonial period 51 Morel, Edmundo 105-6 evictions 101, 102 mortality 146-7 fires 128 Moscow 22, 166-7 inequality 95 Moser, Caroline 159 landlordism 44, 87 Mugabe, Robert 113, 114 overcrowding 94 Mumbai (Bombay) population growth 18 child labor 186 rack-renting 35, 42 colonial period 52 sewage 138, 139, 143 death rates 146-7 water contamination 137 deindustrialization 13 encroachment into protected areas 136 water sales 144-5 Naples 22, 42, 83, 94, 175-6 Nasser, Gamal Abdel 61, 200 evictions 102 natural disasters 122-8 housing 34, 65—6 Navarro 49 inequalities 96, 97 Nedoroscik, Jeffrey 33, 86, 190 land ownership 84 Negri, A. 201 overcrowding 92 Nehru, Jawaharlal 61, 200 pollution 133-4 neoclassical theory 163 population 4, 5 neoliberalism 16, 79, 81, 141, 163, 200 privatization 171 Chile 156 refugees 55-6 Colombian drug cartels 165 satellite cities 99 cost-recovery 72 neoliberalism (Cont'd.) flexible labor 185 Old Havana 32 Olympic Games 106-7 globalization 174 Orientalism 205-6 impact on healthcare 147-8 overcrowding 53, 92-4 India 170, 171, 172 individualism 184 informal sector 180, 186 Pakistan land speculation 84 Mexico 159 poverty 165—6 optimism 202 refugees 48, 56 privatization of toilets 141 South Africa 154 Nepal 23 slum population 24 Palm Springs 42 Paris 64, 98 New Bombay 65-6, 99 Payatas 124 New York 4, 5, 44, 92 Payne, Geoffrey 80, 126 NGOs see non-governmental peasants 53-4, 55, 60, 91, 169, 174 organizations Peattie, Lisa 72-3 Nguyen Due Nhuan 66 Peil, Margaret 87 Nicaragua 38 Penang 47 Nientied, Peter 88 Pentecostalism 195, 196 Nigeria Perez Jimenez, Marcos 54, 59 beautification campaign 104 peripherality 37-8, 93 child mortality 148 Peru housing 66-7 housing policy 62 slum population 24 informal sector 177 structural adjustment programs 152, 156 recession 157 rural migrants 27 Nkrumah, Kwame 200 slum population 24 Nlundu, Thierry Mayamba 198 squatting 38 Nock, Magdalena 11 Pezzoli, Keith 91 non-governmental organizations Philippines (NGOs) 70, 71, 75-9, 154, 184 beautification campaigns 104—5 North Korea 54 health spending 148 Nuru, Karin 51 slum population 24 World Bank project 73 Oberai, A. 67-8, 74, 179 Phnom Penh 35, 54, 107, 145 Ofeimun, Odia 101 Pinochet, Augusto 109, 156 Okome, Onookome 1 Pol Pot 54, 107 politics 100, 109-11 pollution 129-30, 133-4, 136-7, 143, 145-6 polycentric urban systems 9 , 1 0 structural adjustment programs 152, 153 toilets 141-2 transport 132 population density 92-3, 95-6, 99 water 146 population growth 2, 3, 7, 18 World Bank policies 164 Port-au-Prince 92, 142, 188, 204 property rights 45, 79-80, 179 Portes, Alejandro 180, 185n40 protests 161-3 Potts, Deborah 156 PRSP see Poverty Reduction Strategy poverty 24-6, 27, 151-73 Papers Africa 6, 18 public transport 131-2 Algeria 165 Puerto Rico 122 China 170 Pugh, Cedric 72, 160 Eastern Europe 167 Pusan 16 India 5, 170, 171, 172, 173 Putin, Vladimir 167 inner city 31-7 Latin America 156-7 Quarantina 47 Mexico 164-5, 184 Quito 32, 86, 136, 146, 159 Nigeria 156 overurbanization 16 racial segregation 96-7 Pakistan 165-6 Raftopoulos, Brian 114 periurban 201 Rakodi, Carole 155 profiting from 82-9 RAND Corporation 203-4 rural 51 Rangel, Jose Vincente 123 Russia 166 Rangoon 47-8, 102, 107-8, 144 UN-HABITAT report 20, 21 Reagan, Ronald 153 urban hazards 124, 128 refugees 48-9, 55-6, 100, 194 urbanization of 50 regularization 80-1 Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSP) 75-6 privatization renting 42-5 see also landlordism resistance 109-11, 161-3, 202 Algeria 165 Rhodesia see Zimbabwe Congo 193 rickshaws 188-90 education 203 Rigg, Jonathan 26 healthcare 149, 159 Riis, Jacob 20 housing 63, 71 Rio de Janeiro India 171 hazardous slum locations 122 Rio de Janeiro (Cont'd.) 150 inequality 157 colonial period 52, 53 inner city poverty 32 India 171 pollution 129 Mumbai 73 population 4 Santa Cruz Meyehualco 47 slum clearances 99, 102, 108 Santiago 10, 32, 109, 176 slum dwellers 27, 31 Santo Domingo 96, 102, 105-6, 203 verticalization of favelas 93 Rio/Sao Paulo Extended Metropolitan Range (RSPER) 5 Sao Paulo deindustrialization 13 favelas 17, 34 riots 162 gated communities 117-18 Riskin, Carl 168 industrialization 16 road networks 118-19 inner-city poverty 32 Roberts, Bryan 182 loss of manufacturing Robotham, Don 164 employment 164 Rocha, Mercedes de la 184 pollution 129, 130, 133 Rodenbeck, Max 33 population 4 Rodgers, Dennis 118-19 region-based urbanization 10 Rogerson, Christine 160-1 regularization 81 Roma 167 rent prices 86 Roy, Ananya 102 slum dwellers 23 Roy, Arundhati 79, 140 water contamination 136 RSPER see Rio/Sao Paulo Extended Metropolitan Range SAPs see structural adjustment programs Ruggeri, Laura 115,119-20 Schenk, Hans 46, 128 rural areas 1 0 , 1 1 , 1 6 0 Schenk-Sandbergen, Loes 141 China 9, 53-4 Schneider, Cathy 109 India 171-2 Schultz, George 153 see also peasants Scott, James 39 Russian Federation 23-4, 166-7 SCRSs see substandard commercial Sabana Perdida 105 Seabrook, Jeremy 9, 70, 72, 100 residential subdivisions Sadat, Anwar 110-11 Dhaka 189 Sadr City 144, 205 hazardous slum locations 121, St.


pages: 263 words: 78,433

What Doctors Feel: How Emotions Affect the Practice of Medicine by Danielle Ofri

affirmative action, delayed gratification, facts on the ground, job satisfaction, lateral thinking, longitudinal study, medical malpractice, medical residency, RAND corporation

Such characteristics directly affect patients. There is also a growing body of evidence to suggest that burned-out and emotionally fatigued doctors commit more medical errors.18 Measuring this precisely is quite difficult, but the higher doctors score on measures of burnout, the more errors they admit to making. In contrast, doctors who are more engaged in their work and life report fewer errors.19 A seminal study by the Rand Corporation followed twenty thousand patients and their doctors for two years.20 These were patients with ordinary chronic illnesses—diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, and depression—not acutely ill patients in the hospital. Patients and doctors alike were extensively interviewed. One of the most intriguing findings of the study was that patients were much more likely to take their prescribed medications when they were cared for by doctors who were satisfied with their jobs and lives.

See litigation manipulation, 13–14 Manning, Yvonne (patient who died of breast cancer, daughter filed suit), 178–85 MCAT (Medical College Admission Test), 52 medical education: and empathy loss, 30–36, 47, 147–50, 159; hidden curriculum of, 33–36; humanities studies, 49–50; integrated clerkships, 50–52; medical error education, 136–37; and medical terminology, 36–38; mixed messages of, 31–33; multiculturalism studies, 52–54; self-discipline demands of, 18; on shame, 136–37; and slang/gallows humor, 37–40, 43; structure of, 3–4, 32; and time management, 74–75, 143–45, 160–62 medical error: and disillusionment, 160; emotional toll of, 2, 124–27, 134–36, 175–76; and guilt, 87–89; medical education on, 136–37; reduction, 139; studies, 137–38 medical experience, 3 Medicine in Translation (Ofri), 26–27, 62–63, 97, 203, 206–7 Mercedes (patient who was thought to have Lyme disease), 175–76, 199–201 misdiagnosis, 85, 90–91, 175–77; anchoring bias error in, 2, 86–89; consequences of, 87–90, 124–27, 176–77; rates of, 92 Morbidity and Mortality (M&M) conferences, 54, 133–34, 193 multiculturalism studies, 52–54 music, 151–53 Natalie (psychiatric patient who attempted suicide), 187–89 negative emotions, 2 oath of Maimonides, 7, 10 Occam’s razor, 88 Ofri, Danielle, 26–27, 62–63, 97, 200–201, 203, 206–7 On Apology (Lazare), 128, 133 oncologists, 107–9, 134–36, 183–84 online ratings, 196–99 organ transplant, 25–28, 62–63, 95, 142, 170–72, 202–5 Osler, William, 3–4, 56, 57, 147, 210, 212 Overdiagnosed (Welch), 191–92 overdose, drug, 19–22, 76–83 overwhelmed, feeling: and decision making, 74–75; and empathy loss, 159; and fatigue, 30, 34, 70, 148, 169; and medical education structure, 32; and revulsion, 7–9, 10–12, 40–43, 57–58; and time pressures, 83–84 Paolini, Herdley (psychologist who created physician wellness program), 162–66 pain, perception of, 29–30 patient: emotion, 211–12; empathy and health outcomes of, 56–57, 110–13; patient-doctor relationship, 192–93, 210–11; patient-satisfaction surveys, 193, 196–99; personality traits, 12–15; view of misdiagnosis, 85 patient care consequences: and anger, 37, 132–33, 147–50, 159, 210; of grief, 98–105, 108–13, 122–23; of litigation, 139, 154–57, 178, 187, 190–92; of shame, 132–33 Peabody, Francis, 212 peaked T waves, 66–67 personal bias, 13–15 personal enrichment, 150–52 personality traits: patient, 12–15; physician, 133 physician evaluations, 196–99 Physicians Foundation study, 153–54 positive emotions, 2, 210–11 posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), 105–6, 108 Potter syndrome, 99, 101 pride, 124–25, 175–76 prognosis, difficulty telling, 25–28, 61–62, 127 pulmonary embolism, 86–89, 91–92 quality-measures movement, 3, 193–95 racial bias, 29–30 Rand Corporation study, 160 rape, 6–9, 141 Remen, Rachael Naomi, 165 report cards, 193–95 respect, 53–56 revulsion, 7–9, 10–12, 40–43, 57–58 risk management, 173–75, 181–85. See also litigation Robert Wood Johnson Medical School Humanism and Professionalism study, 49–50 sadness. See grief “self-induced” illness, 10, 18–22, 113–19, 146 self-judgment, 199–201 shame: and apology, 128, 133, 139; averting, 139; benefits of, 132, 139; and expectations, 130–31; and guilt, 125–29, 135–36, 138–39; medical education on, 136–37; patient care consequences of, 132–33 Shem, Samuel, 43–44 short-sightedness, 57–59 Singular Intimacies (Ofri), 200–201 slang/gallows humor.


pages: 538 words: 141,822

The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom by Evgeny Morozov

"Robert Solow", A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, don't be evil, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Google Earth, illegal immigration, invention of radio, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Marshall McLuhan, Mitch Kapor, Naomi Klein, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, peer-to-peer, pirate software, pre–internet, Productivity paradox, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Sinatra Doctrine, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, social graph, Steve Jobs, technoutopianism, The Wisdom of Crowds, urban planning, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce

It just took a few months to add analytical luster to Reagan’s pronouncements and turn it into something of a coherent history. In 1990, the RAND Corporation, a California-based think tank that, perhaps by the sheer virtue of its propitious location, never passes up an opportunity to praise the powers of modern technology, reached a strikingly similar conclusion. “The communist bloc failed,” it said in a timely published study, “not primarily or even fundamentally because of its centrally controlled economic policies or its excessive military burdens, but because its closed societies were too long denied the fruits of the information revolution.” This view has proved remarkably sticky. As late as 2002, Francis Fukuyama, himself a RAND Corporation alumnus, would write that “totalitarian rule depended on a regime’s ability to maintain a monopoly over information, and once modern information technology made that impossible, the regime’s power was undermined.”

See also Culture Popular Mechanics Populism Pornography Postman, Neil Pouraghayi, Saeedeh Power “Power of the Powerless” (Havel) Prague Pravda Price, Cedric Prior, Markus Privacy Propaganda and Chavez in China in Egypt in Iran and middle class and public discourse in Russia in South Korea susceptibility to See also Censorship; Spin Protection by obscurity Przeworski, Adam Psiphon Public discourse Public-opinion guidance Putin, Vladimir “Putin and His Ideology” (Chadayev) Putnam, Robert Racism Radio Radio broadcasting Radio Doctor (radio program) Radio Free Europe and CIA Radio Martí Raja News website RAND Corporation Reagan, Ronald Recognizr Red-texting Reductionism Religion RentAFriend.com Reporters Without Borders (RSF) Research funding of Revisionism Revolutionary Guards Reynolds, Glenn Rezaei, Alireza Rice, Condoleezza Ringelmann, Max Ringelmann Effect Rittel, Horst Roberts, Hal Robertson, Pat Romania Roosevelt, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Kermit Roosevelt, Theodore Roosevelt, Theodore, Jr.


pages: 503 words: 131,064

Liars and Outliers: How Security Holds Society Together by Bruce Schneier

airport security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Brian Krebs, Broken windows theory, carried interest, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, commoditize, corporate governance, crack epidemic, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, desegregation, don't be evil, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Douglas Hofstadter, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, George Akerlof, hydraulic fracturing, impulse control, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, iterative process, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Julian Assange, longitudinal study, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nate Silver, Network effects, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, patent troll, phenotype, pre–internet, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Coase, security theater, shareholder value, slashdot, statistical model, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, too big to fail, traffic fines, transaction costs, ultimatum game, UNCLOS, union organizing, Vernor Vinge, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey, Y2K, zero-sum game

There's even evidence that links the number of Facebook friends to the size of certain brain regions. Such social networks are changing the definition of “friend.” How else can you explain that so many of our Facebook pages include people we would never have even considered talking to in high school, and yet we help water their imaginary plants? Chapter 5 (1) The Prisoner's Dilemma was originally framed in the 1950s by Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher at the RAND Corporation, and was named several years later by Albert Tucker.Many researchers have informed and analyzed this game, most famously John Nash and then Robert Axelrod, who used it to help explain the evolution of cooperation. (2) I should probably explain about Alice and Bob. Cryptographers—and I started as a cryptographer—name the two actors in any security discussion Alice and Bob. To us, anyone we don't know is either Alice or Bob.

Robson (Spring 2004), “The Origins of Phreaking,” Blacklisted 411, 6:17–23. Criminals can form Allan Castle (1997), “Transnational Organized Crime and International Security,” Institute of International Relations, The University of British Columbia Working Paper No. 19. Phil Williams (2001), “Transnational Criminal Networks,” in John Arquilla and David F. Ronfeldt, eds., Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy, RAND Corporation, 61–97. Oded Löwenheim (2002), “Transnational Criminal Organizations and Security: The Case Against Inflating the Threat,” International Journal, 57:513–36. Criminals were simply Warwick Ashford (6 Oct 2010), “ISSE 2010: Police Are Playing Catch-Up as Criminals Embrace IT,” Computer Weekly. Stephen Pritchard (2 Jun 2011), “Vulnerabilities: Battle Is Joined on Two Fronts,” Financial Times.

The Economist (26 Feb 2009), “Primates on Facebook: Even Online, the Neocortex Is the Limit.” certain brain regions Ryota Kanai, Bahador Bahrami, Rebecca Roylance, and Geraint Rees (2011), “Online Social Network Size Is Reflected in Human Brain Structure,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, published online before print. Chapter 5 Prisoner's Dilemma Merrill M. Flood (1952), “Some Experimental Games,” Research Memorandum RM 789–1, The RAND Corporation. Republished as: Merrill M. Flood (1958), “Some Experimental Games,” Management Science, 5:5–26. Albert W. Tucker (1980), “A Two-Person Dilemma,” UMAP Journal, 1:101–3. Albert W. Tucker (1983), “The Mathematics of Tucker: A Sampler,” The Two-Year College Mathematics Journal, 14:228–32. Many researchers Sylvia Nasar (2001), A Beautiful Mind: The Life of Mathematical Genius and Nobel Laureate John Nash, Simon & Schuster.


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The Patient Will See You Now: The Future of Medicine Is in Your Hands by Eric Topol

23andMe, 3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Anne Wojcicki, Atul Gawande, augmented reality, bioinformatics, call centre, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, conceptual framework, connected car, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, dark matter, data acquisition, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, don't be evil, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Firefox, global village, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, information asymmetry, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, job automation, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, lifelogging, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Nate Silver, natural language processing, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, placebo effect, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, Snapchat, social graph, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Turing test, Uber for X, uber lyft, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, X Prize

But getting to efficient use of smartphone lab tests and scans, along with virtual visits, is not a slam-dunk, by any means. The next step we need to get into is how to completely capture and archive all of these data, from womb to tomb. Chapter 7 My Records and Meds “Health information technology (HIT) could save $81–$162 billion or more annually while greatly reducing morbidity and mortality.” —THE RAND CORPORATION, 20051 “We’re creating a revolution. Some people are aghast.” ON GIVING PATIENTS ACCESS TO NOTES BY PHYSICIANS. —TOM DELBANCO, HARVARD2 We’re all dressed up with nowhere to go. We’ve got our labs, real-time wireless sensor data, genomic sequence information, and images. Our ability to generate big medical data about an individual has far outstripped any semblance of managing it, and we can’t even build the full GIS yet.

“Survey: Physicians are Aware That Many Medical Tests and Procedures Are Unnecessary, See Themselves as Solution,” Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, April 2014, http://www.rwjf.org/en/about-rwjf/newsroom/newsroom-content/2014/04/survey--physicians-are-aware-that-many-medical-tests-and-procedu.html. 38. J. Appleby, “Hospitals Promote Screenings That Experts Say Many People Do Not Need,” Washington Post, May 13, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/hospitals-promote-screenings-that-experts-say-most-people-should-not-receive/2013/05/13/aaecb272-9ae2-11e2-9bda-edd1a7fb557d_story.html. 39. S. Garber et al., “Redirecting Innovation in US Health Care,” The RAND Corporation, 2014, http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR308.html. 40. R. Sihvonen et al., “Arthroscopic Partial Meniscectomy versus Sham Surgery for a Degenerative Meniscal Tear,” New England Journal of Medicine 369, no. 26 (2013): 2515–2524. 41. S. Eappen et al., “Relationship Between Occurrence of Surgical Complications and Hospital Finances,” Journal of the American Medical Association 309, no. 15 (2013): 1599–1606. 42.

.), 47–49, 285 The Printing Press as an Agent of Change (Eisenstein), 38–42, 47–49 Privacy concerns, 219–235 Privacy Rights Clearinghouse, 228–229 Project Artemis, 252 Project Masiluleke (South Africa), 261–262 Pronovost, Peter, 186 Prostate cancer screening, 118 Protective alleles, 102 Protein biology, 86 Proteome, 81–82, 86 Proteus, 133–134 Proton beam radiation, 146 Qualcomm, 286 Quality in healthcare, 156–157 QuantuMDs, 264, 265(fig.) Quest Diagnostics, 108 Radiation dosages, 28–29, 113–116, 115(table). See also Imaging; Scans Radiation Right campaign, 116 Ramamurthy, Lakshman, 65–66 RAND Corporation, 125(quote), 130–131 Reconstructive surgery after double mastectomy, 58–59 Records, medical Blue Button Initiative, 129–130 human phenome, 82–83 hype in health information technology, 130–132 OpenNotes project, 127–129 patient access to DNA data, 22 patient ownership, 125–126 See also entries beginning with Data Regulatory procedures, 288–289 Reinhardt, Uwe, 139(quote), 142 Religion, 13–14, 17–18, 50, 52 Relman, Arnold “Bud,” 176 Research, personal, 17 Respect, culture of, 20–21, 27–30 Revolution 2.0 (Ghonim), 13 Revolutions, social networks contributing to, 43–44 Rheumatoid arthritis, 144–145, 204 Rifkin, Jeremy, 49 Risk calculation Global Burden of Disease, 258–261 ionized radiation tests, 113–116 leading causes of disease and risk factors for death and disability, 260(table) predictive analysis, 249–250 TBI and gene variants, 94–95 traditional epidemiology, 70–71 RNA, 86, 98, 255–256 Roche, 215 Rosenberg, Tina, 139(quote) Rosenthal, Elisabeth, 140, 142, 148 Rubenstein, David, 37 Rush, Benjamin, 20 Ruthven, David, 189 Sabar, Ariel, 105(quote) Sage Bionetworks, 199–200 Sayfer, Steven, 190–191 Scans alternatives to radiation, 116 miniaturization of, 118–120 MOOMs, 204–205 patient access to test results, 120–121 portable devices for, 118–120 See also Imaging; Lab tests Schekman, Randy, 209–210 Schwamm, Lee, 167–168 Science, modern, 44–46 Seife, Charles, 71–72 Seigler, Mark, 20 Seinfeld (television program), 4 Semmelweis, Ignaz, 275 Sensor Project, 269 The Shallows (Carr), 40 Sharing Clinical Reports Project, 75 Shenkin, Budd, 127 Shortage of physicians, 173(fig.), 270–271 Side effects of drugs, 100–101 Sidereus Nuncius (Galilei), 44–45 The Signal and the Noise (Silver), 40 The Silent World of Doctor and Patient (Katz), 18–19 Silver, Nate, 40 Simon, Elena, 9, 10(fig.), 212 Siri, 164–165, 244 Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia (Townsend), 223 Smart patients, 8–10 Smartphones attachment scopes, 122 biosensors, 83 boredom and, 48–49 compared to printing press, 40 conducting a full physical exam with, 121–123 data archiving, 48 declining cost of, 273(fig.)


pages: 453 words: 130,632

Nine Pints: A Journey Through the Money, Medicine, and Mysteries of Blood by Rose George

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, air freight, airport security, British Empire, call centre, corporate social responsibility, Edward Snowden, global pandemic, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, index card, Jeff Bezos, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Nelson Mandela, obamacare, period drama, Peter Thiel, Rana Plaza, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, Skype, stem cell

Swanson, Banking on the Body: The Market in Blood, Milk, and Sperm in Modern America (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2014), 57.   38. A recent comprehensive report by the RAND corporation into the US blood supply called it “complex” but also “robust.” Harvey Klein and colleagues think differently. The financial bullying might of huge hospital conglomerates, they wrote in 2017, is forcing blood collection centers to lower their prices to unsustainable levels. There is fierce competition and the reduction of margins to the point where research is being cut. Andrew W. Mulcahy, Kandice A. Kapinos, Brian Briscombe, et al., Toward a Sustainable Blood Supply in the United States: An Analysis of the Current System and Alternatives for the Future (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016), https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1575.html; Harvey G. Klein, J. Chris Hrouda, and Jay S.

pigeons Plan India plasma during Battle of Mogadishu cost of donors fractionation fresh frozen Krever Report on proteins in sale of source storage of transfusions of, statistics on in trauma during World War II Plasma for Britain program plasma industry plasma protein therapeutics Plasma Protein Therapeutics Association (PPTA) Plasma Resources UK Plasmafaresis plastic surgery, leeches used in platelets Pliny the Elder pluripotent stem cells Plymouth Hospital PMDD (premenstrual dysmorphic disorder) PMS (premenstrual syndrome) polar bears polycythemia vera PolyHeme Pope Innocent VIII postpartum hemorrhage poverty PRBCs (packed red blood cells) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program pregnancy premenstrual dysmorphic disorder (PMDD) premenstrual syndrome (PMS) President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Prince Regent (future George IV) Principles and Practice of Obstetricy (Blundell) prisoners’ access to menstrual hygiene Prisoners’ Blood Bank for Defense Procter & Gamble prostate-specific antigen (PSA) PSA (prostate-specific antigen) Psychrolousia, or The History of Cold Bathing (Floyer) public executions Pybus, Miss Quebec Quick, Jonathan Racaniello, Vincent race, early blood segregation and Rana Plaza factory building collapse in 2013 RAND corporation rape Rath, Matthias rats Read, Sara REBOA (resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta) red blood cells bone marrow’s production of cost of Filton’s production of official shelf life of packed (PRBCs) presurgical conservation of shape of in sickle-cell anemia stored vs. fresh in trauma Red Cross Red Market, The (Carney) Red Star (Bogdanov) rejuvenation, blood Rely tampons Research and Markets resuscitation.


Year 501 by Noam Chomsky

"Robert Solow", anti-communist, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, Bolshevik threat, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, colonial rule, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, European colonialism, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Howard Zinn, invisible hand, land reform, land tenure, long peace, mass incarceration, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, non-tariff barriers, offshore financial centre, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price stability, Ralph Nader, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, strikebreaker, structural adjustment programs, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, union organizing, War on Poverty, working poor

At that point, they will enter the agenda, like the ozone layer, which became “important” when it seemed likely to endanger rich white folk. Meanwhile, the experiments will continue in the testing areas. 2. Laboratory Animals The concept “testing area” merits particular notice. Similarly, “American strategists have described the civil war in El Salvador as the ‘ideal testing ground’ for implementing low-intensity conflict doctrine” (a.k.a. international terrorism), a DOD-sponsored RAND Corporation report on the experiment concludes. In earlier days, Vietnam was described as “a going laboratory where we see subversive insurgency...being applied in all its forms” (Maxwell Taylor), providing opportunities for “experiments with population and resource control methods” and “nation building.” The Marine occupation of Haiti was described in similar terms, as we have seen. The technical posturing appears to sustain the self-image, at least.7 One finds no intimation that the experimental subjects might have the right to sign consent forms, or even to know what is happening to them.

Adopting the policies favored by Kennedy doves in later years, its military leadership undertook counterinsurgency campaigns, complete with “collective hamlets,” earnest measures to win hearts and minds, and other ideas that have a certain resonance. Among a series of unpleasant—hence unmentionable—facts is the similarity of these operations to the no less brutal and atrocious ones conducted by the United States a few years later near China’s southern border, operations that peaked in murderous violence shortly after the Japanese documents on Manchuria were released by the RAND Corporation in 1967, to be shelved with appropriate silence by the cultural managers.7 The similarity is not entirely accidental. Apart from the fact that the same thoughts naturally come to the minds of similar actors facing similar circumstances, US counterinsurgency doctrine was consciously modelled on the practices and achievements of World War II fascism, though it was the Nazis who were the preferred model.

., 35–36, 38 Pollin, Robert, 156 Pol Pot, 140, 180, 186–87, 251, 348, 350–51, 369 Pool, Ithiel, 52 Porter, Bernard, vii Portes, Richard, 113 Portugal, 187 in New World Order, 66, 181, 188 Portuguese colonialism, 6–7, 6–9, 11, 19, 180 Posey, Darrell, 162 postcolonialism decolonization period, 54–62 Pozzi, Pablo, 257 Prescott, Paul, 364 Preston, Lewis, 86 prisons, 153–154, 177, 224, 392–93 colonialism and, 16, 27, 272 role in New World Order, 83, 153–54, 168, 238 Puebla Institute, 289 Puerto Rico, 272, 336 Puette, Walter, 385 Putin, Vladimir, xii Qaddafi, Muammar, 29, 164 Rabe, Stephen, 215, 234–35 Rabin, Yitzhak, 53 Rabinowitz, Dorothy, 344 race, 38, 217, 275, 277, 281 in colonialism, ix, 27, 36, 274, 281, 307 See also blackness; Noirisme; whiteness racism, 6, 31–32, 48, 74, 195, 275, 277–78, 281, 292, 307, 396, 398 See also colonialism; imperialism; slavery Ramírez, Ivan, 249 RAND Corporation, 169–70, 308, 331 Reagan, Ronald, xii, 89, 112, 114, 268–69, 350, 372, 382 Cold War policy, 157 economic policy, 54, 68, 70–71, 85, 109, 144, 146, 149–50, 155, 228, 385–87 Grenada policy, 117 Guatemala policy, 238 Haiti policy, 284, 286 Korea policy, 141 Nicaragua policy, 206 South Africa policy, 39 Reding, Andrew, 82 refugees, 33, 346 Cuban refugees, 284 Haitian refugees, 284, 293, 296, 298, 302 Indonesian refugees, 181, 187 Salvadoran refugees, 249 from US slavery, 194 Reston, James, 178–79 Reuter, Edzard, 77–78 Rivera, Brooklyn, 120 Roberts, Brad, 257 Robinson, Anthony, 107–09 Röling, Bert, 327 Romania, 81, 111–12, 141 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 59, 96, 197–98, 277, 328, 339–40 Roosevelt, Theodore, 31, 277 Root, Elihu, 215 Rosenfeld, Stephen, 183–84 Rostow, Walt, 174, 176 Roth, Kenneth, 290, 292 Rubinstein, Danny, 53 Rumsfeld, Donald, x Rusk, Dean, 171–73, 183, 225 Russell, Bertrand, 50 Russia, xii, xiii, 92–94, 127, 332 in post–Cold War era, 77, 81, 108, 111–13, 113–15, 151 See also Soviet Union Ryan, Hewson, 283 Sachs, Jeffrey, 107 Sandel, Michael, 253 Sandinistas, 49, 105, 121–22, 201, 205, 263–67, 300 Sarney, José, 260 Saudi Arabia, 52, 56, 235 Savimbi, Jonas, 129 Scanlan, Christopher, 245 Schlesinger, Arthur, xi, 38, 200 Schmidt, Hans, 274, 276–77, 280–81, 303 Schoultz, Lars, 42, 166 Schweid, Barry, 148 Scott, Peter Dale, 171 Seabrook, Jeremy, 237 Serrano, Jorge, 240–41 sexism, 74, 398 Sexton, Patricia, 389, 396 sexual violence, 227, 239, 243 forced sterilization, 277–78 Shamir, Yitzhak, 53 Shawcross, William, 186–87 Shenon, Philip, 180, 333 Sheppar, Nathaniel, 118 Shlaudeman, Harry, 119 Shorrock, Tim, 140 Shultz, George, 141, 286 Sihanouk Norodom, 350–51 Simes, Dimitri, 123, 125 Simpson, John, 257 Singapore, 83–84, 257, 350 Sioux, 32, 363 Skidmore, Thomas, 225–227, 229–30 slavery, x, 43–44, 311–12, 319 in Bolivia, 195 in Brazil, 231–32 in Cuba, 196–97 global slave trade, 6–7, 9, 19, 28–29 in Haiti, 271, 275–76 in India, 241 in US, 33, 36–37, 193–94, 361 Slim, T-Bone, 380 Sloan, Alfred, 309 Smith, Adam, viii, 318 on colonialism, 4–5, 9–11, 20–22, 379 on economics, 13–17, 24–25, 390 legacy of, 77, 79 Smith, Joseph, 214 Smith, Stephen, 143 Smith, Wayne, 203 Smucker, Philip, 354 Somoza García, Anastasio, 140, 263, 265–66, 299 South Africa, 4, 134, 320, 386 actions in Angola, 39, 100, 129–30, 206–07 South Commission, 61 South Korea, 13, 55, 358 in New World Order, 84, 140–42, 145, 256 South-North Human Genome Conference, 159 Soviet Union, 73, 150, 169, 185–86, 220, 325, 360 in Cold War, xii, 62–66, 96–107, 129–30, 157, 167, 199, 210 collapse of, 72, 77, 84, 122–23, 125, 127, 131, 157, 251–52, 395 dissidents, 43 role in Third World, 60, 93–94, 123 See also Cuban missile crisis; Russia Spaatz, Carl Andrew, 326 Spain, 13, 101, 337 Spanish colonialism, 6–7, 9–10, 17, 29, 42–44, 195, 196, 271, 273–274 Stackhouse, John, 353–54 Stavrianos, Leften, 92 Stein, Herbert, 157, 410n15 Stephens, Uriah, 319 Stevens, John, 336 Stewart, Allan, 234–35 Stigler, George, 14, 22 Stimson, Henry, 58, 97 Stivers, William, 279 Story, Joseph, viii Strange, Susan, 70 Strauss, Robert, 115 structural adjustment policies, 4, 85–87, 117, 134, 149, 209, 224, 235–37, 249, 269, 273, 354 Sued-Badillo, Jalil, 272, 420n49 Suharto, 170, 174, 176, 178, 180–81, 185–87, 190, 209, 253 Sukarno, 168–69, 168–70, 173–75, 178, 184 Summers, Lawrence, 151–52 Suskind, Ron, 117 Sweden, 86, 94 Swift, Jonathan, 357 Switzerland, 211, 275 Taft, William Howard, 217 Taiwan, 83, 257, 285 Taylor, Humphrey, 383 Taylor, Lance, 147 Taylor, Maxwell, 165, 421n62 Thailand, 187, 231, 241–42, 349–50 Thatcher, Margaret, 76–77 Thomasson, Gordon, 305–07 Thompson, Edward, 15 Thompson, E.P., 382 Thompson, John, 105 Tibbets, Paul, 327 Tibet, 331 Times Literary Supplement, vii Timor, 140, 180–81, 185–90, 349, 369 Togo, 86 Tojo, Hideki, 340 Torricelli, Robert, 296 Toussaint L’Ouverture, François-Dominique, 271–72, 279, 302 Tracy, James, 10–11 transnational corporations (TNCs), 62, 144, 150, 162, 164, 181 in New World Order, 70, 83–84, 88, 132–33, 146 Tran Viet Cuong, 353 Trevelyan, Charles