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A Man for All Markets by Edward O. Thorp
3Com Palm IPO, Albert Einstein, asset allocation, beat the dealer, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, Black-Scholes formula, Brownian motion, buy low sell high, carried interest, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, Claude Shannon: information theory, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, compound rate of return, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, diversification, Edward Thorp, Erdős number, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, financial innovation, George Santayana, German hyperinflation, Henri Poincaré, high net worth, High speed trading, index arbitrage, index fund, interest rate swap, invisible hand, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, Jeff Bezos, John Meriwether, John Nash: game theory, Kenneth Arrow, Livingstone, I presume, Long Term Capital Management, Louis Bachelier, margin call, Mason jar, merger arbitrage, Murray Gell-Mann, Myron Scholes, NetJets, Norbert Wiener, passive investing, Paul Erdős, Paul Samuelson, Pluto: dwarf planet, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, publish or perish, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, race to the bottom, random walk, Renaissance Technologies, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, rolodex, Sharpe ratio, short selling, Silicon Valley, statistical arbitrage, stem cell, survivorship bias, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Predators' Ball, the rule of 72, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, Upton Sinclair, value at risk, Vanguard fund, Vilfredo Pareto, Works Progress Administration
To get quick approximate answers to compound interest problems like these, accountants have a handy trick called “the rule of 72.” It says: If money grows at a percentage R in each period then, with all gains reinvested, it will double in 72/R periods. Example: Your money grows at 8 percent per year. If you reinvest your gains, how long does it take to double? By the rule of 72, it takes 72 ÷ 8 = 9 years, since a period in this example is one year. Example: The net after-tax return from your market-neutral hedge fund averages 12 percent a year. You start with $1 million and reinvest your net profits. How much will you have in twenty-four years? By the rule of 72, your money doubles in about six years. Then it doubles again in the next six years, and so forth, for 24 ÷ 6 = 4 doublings. So it multiplies by 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 = 16 and becomes $16 million. For more on the rule of 72, see appendix C.
The return series depends on the time period and on the specific index chosen. Appendix C * * * THE RULE OF 72 AND MORE The rule of 72 gives quick approximate answers to compound interest and compound growth problems. The rule tells us how many periods it takes for wealth to double with a specified rate of return, and is exact for a rate of 7.85 percent. For smaller rates, doubling is a little quicker than what the rule calculates; for greater rates, it takes a little longer. The table compares the rule in column 2 with the exact value in column 3. The “exact rule” column shows the number that should replace 72 to calculate each rate of return. For an 8 percent return, the number, rounded to two decimal places, is 72.05, which shows how close the rule of 72 is. Notice that the number in column 4 for the exact rule should equal the column 1 return per period multiplied by the corresponding values in column 3 (actual number of periods to double), but that the column 4 figures don’t quite agree with this.
Practice in the UK adds six zeros at each stage so a billion has twelve zeros, etc. one standard deviation Standard deviation indicates the size of a typical fluctuation around an average value. to the news See Nassim Taleb’s readable and insightful book Fooled by Randomness. quick mental estimate By the rule of 72, discussed later, a 24 percent annual growth rate doubles money in about 72/24=3 years. After nine years we have three doublings, to two, then four, and finally eight times the starting value. But it actually takes about 3.22 years because the rule of 72 underestimates the doubling time more and more as rates increase beyond 8 percent. of the Alamo The story of this epic battle and the subsequent ordeals of those held captive by the Japanese is told by Eric Morris in Corregidor: The American Alamo of World War II, Stein and Day, New York, 1981, reprinted paperback, Cooper Square Press, New York, 2000.
Financial Independence by John J. Vento
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, asset allocation, diversification, diversified portfolio, estate planning, financial independence, fixed income, high net worth, Home mortgage interest deduction, money market fund, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, oil shock, Own Your Own Home, passive income, risk tolerance, the rule of 72, time value of money, transaction costs, young professional, zero day
You can truly appreciate this over time, because the outcome can be astonishing. The Rule of 72 Before I describe how to use the financial tables provided in the following pages, I would like to explain the Rule of 72, which unlocks the answer to how long it will take you to double your money. Of course, the answer to this depends on your interest rate (rate of return). Simply divide the assumed rate of return into 72. For example: • If your assumed rate of return is 10 percent, divide 10 into 72, which equals 7.2 years. • If your assumed rate of return is 5 percent, divide 5 into 72, which equals 14.4 years. So, for the purpose of this example, let us assume a rate of return of 10 percent per year and a starting point of $25,000. Based on the Rule of 72 (see Exhibit 11.1), here’s how that amount will increase: • • • • • • c11.indd 286 In 7.2 years, that $25,000 will double to $50,000.
Tax System 12 Organizing and Retaining Your Records 15 Tax-Preparation Services 16 Accumulating Wealth through Tax Planning 18 ix ftoc.indd ix 26/02/13 11:17 AM x Contents Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 ftoc.indd x Determining Your Financial Position 23 Figuring Your Financial Net Worth 24 Case Study: How One Couple Learned They Were Spending More Than They Earned 24 Making Sense of Cash Flow 35 Establishing Your Financial Goals 57 Finding Trusted Advisors 61 Managing Debt 67 Case Study: How Two Doctors Went Bankrupt in Only a Few Years—What Not to Do 67 Basic Principles for Managing Debt 71 Good Debt versus Bad Debt 73 Credit-Card Debt 74 Auto Loans 80 Student Loans 81 Home Mortgage Loans 82 Business and Investment Loans 86 Understanding Credit 87 Your Credit Report and Your Credit Score 89 Preventing Identity Theft 93 Analyzing Your Debt 94 Insuring Your Health and Life 99 Choosing a Health Insurance Plan 100 Long-Term Care Insurance 111 Disability Insurance 118 Life Insurance 122 Buying Insurance Policies 128 Protecting Your Property with Insurance 133 Case Study: How a Lack of Insurance Wiped Out One Woman’s Life Savings 134 Homeowner’s Insurance 136 Automobile Insurance 140 Umbrella Liability Insurance 144 Buying Insurance Policies 147 26/02/13 11:17 AM Contents Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9 Paying for College 153 Case Study: How Not Saving for Your Child’s Education Can Ruin Your Finances—and Your Child’s 156 Conducting a “Needs Analysis” for Your Children’s College Educations 160 Strategies for Saving Money for College Education 162 Education Tax Deductions and Credits 179 Planning for Retirement 187 Case Study: Saving versus Not Saving for Retirement: The $1.7 Million Difference 187 Retirement Equation: Calculating Your Personal Point X 191 The High Cost of Waiting to Save for Retirement 193 What You Can Expect to Receive from Social Security 196 Qualiﬁed Retirement Plans 198 The Difference between Traditional IRAs and Roth IRAs 203 Fixed and Variable Annuities 209 Retirement Funding: “Needs Analysis” 212 Managing Your Investments 221 Analyzing Your Risk Tolerance 222 Stocks, Bonds, Mutual Funds, and Exchange-Traded Funds 226 Diversiﬁcation and Modern Portfolio Theory 234 Asset Allocation and Rebalancing 237 Dollar-Cost Averaging 243 Inﬂation and Taxes: The Biggest Drains on Investment Return 245 Medicare Surtax on Net Investment Income 246 Chapter 10 Preserving Your Estate ftoc.indd xi xi 251 The Federal Gift and Estate Tax System 252 Legal Documents to Consider for Estate Planning 252 The Probate and Administration Process and Why You May Want to Avoid It 257 Using a Planned Gifting Strategy 261 Ownership of Property and How It Is Transferred 262 Reasons for Creating a Trust 265 Beneﬁt from a Family Limited Partnership 277 Estate Tax Planning and Life Insurance 278 26/02/13 11:17 AM xii ftoc.indd xii Contents Chapter 11 The Time Value of Money 285 The Rule of 72 286 Appendix A: Selecting a Trusted Advisor 301 Appendix B: 101 Ways to Save $20 or More per Week 311 Appendix C: Basic Concepts and Definitions of Various Types of Taxes 321 About the Author 341 Index 343 26/02/13 11:17 AM Preface Living the American Dream M y first clients were quintessential examples of successful American Dreamers. They came to the United States from Italy after World War II with nothing, and they created a wonderful life for themselves and their children by working hard, living modestly, and saving.
They both managed to save $20,000, but they ended up with significantly different results when they reached the age of 65: Because Brian started 10 years later than Melanie, his savings were $100,000 less than Melanie’s! This example verifies that time is money and that one of your most valuable financial assets is time. By getting off to an early start with your retirement savings program, you can take advantage of the power of compounding. Your annual savings have the potential of earning a rate of return, and so does your reinvested earnings. Look at the Rule of 72 in Exhibit 11.1 to see just how powerful compounding can be. This is the secret to financial independence: by letting your money work for you, eventually, you will no longer have to work to maintain your desired standard of living. If you have been finding it difficult to save money on a regular basis, implement the following savings strategies that will take money directly from your paycheck on a pre-tax basis.
The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing by Taylor Larimore, Michael Leboeuf, Mel Lindauer
asset allocation, buy low sell high, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, endowment effect, estate planning, financial independence, financial innovation, high net worth, index fund, late fees, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, Louis Bachelier, margin call, market bubble, mental accounting, money market fund, passive investing, Paul Samuelson, random walk, risk tolerance, risk/return, Sharpe ratio, statistical model, survivorship bias, the rule of 72, transaction costs, Vanguard fund, yield curve, zero-sum game
THE MAGIC IS IN THE COMPOUNDING Most people earning $25,000 a year believe that their only shot at becoming a millionaire is to win the lottery. The truth is that the odds of anyone winning a big lottery are less than the odds of being struck twice by lightning in a lifetime. However, the power of compound interest and the accompanying Rule of 72 illustrate how anyone can slowly transform small change into large fortunes over time. The Rule of 72 is very simple: To determine how many years it will take an investment to double in value, simply divide 72 by the annual rate of return. For example, an investment that returns 8 percent doubles every 9 years (72/8 = 9). Similarly, an investment that returns 9 percent doubles every 8 years and one that returns 12 percent doubles every 6 years. On the surface that may not seem like such a big deal, until you realize that every time the money doubles, it becomes 4, then 8, then 16, and then 32 times your original investment.
By starting 10 years earlier and making one third of the investment, Eric ends up with 29 percent more. We have all heard the old cliches: If I only knew then what I know now. We are too soon old and too late smart. 0 Youth is too precious to be wasted on the young. If you are a young person, we strongly encourage you use the leverage of your youth to make the power of compounding work for you. And if you are no longer young, it's even more important. Use the time you have to make the Rule of 72 work for you. THIS ABOVE ALL: SAVING IS THE KEY TO WEALTH As you will soon learn, the Boglehead approach to investing is easy to understand and easy to do. It's so simple that you can teach it to your children, and we urge you to do so. For most people the most difficult part of the process is acquiring the habit of saving. Clear that one hurdle, and the rest is easy. What's that? You want an investment system where you don't have to save and can get rich quickly?
I Will Teach You To Be Rich by Sethi, Ramit
Albert Einstein, asset allocation, buy low sell high, diversification, diversified portfolio, index fund, late fees, money market fund, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, prediction markets, random walk, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, survivorship bias, the rule of 72, Vanguard fund
When you send money to your Roth IRA account, it just sits there. You’ll need to invest the money to start making good returns. The easiest investment is a lifecycle fund. You can just buy it, set up automatic monthly contributions, and forget about it. (If you really want more control, you can pick individual index funds instead of lifecycle funds, which I’ll discuss on page 188.) The Rule of 72 * * * The Rule of 72 is a fast trick you can do to figure out how long it will take to double your money. Here’s how it works: Divide the number 72 by the return rate you’re getting, and you’ll have the number of years you must invest in order to double your money. (For the math geeks among us, here’s the equation: 72 ÷ return rate = number of years.) For example, if you’re getting a 10 percent interest rate from an index fund, it would take you approximately seven years (72 ÷ 10) to double your money.
asset allocation, backtesting, capital asset pricing model, commoditize, computer age, correlation coefficient, diversification, diversified portfolio, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, fixed income, index arbitrage, index fund, intangible asset, Long Term Capital Management, p-value, passive investing, prediction markets, random walk, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, South Sea Bubble, survivorship bias, the rule of 72, the scientific method, time value of money, transaction costs, Vanguard fund, Yogi Berra, zero-coupon bond
Your inflation-adjusted portfolio expected return can be calculated as follows: 1. 25% of your portfolio in small stocks: .25 ⫻ 6% ⫽ 1.5% 2. 25% of your portfolio in large stocks: .25 ⫻ 4% ⫽ 1.0% 3. 50% of your portfolio in bonds: .5 ⫻ 3% ⫽ 1.5% Thus, the real long-term expected return of your portfolio is: 1.5% ⫹ 1% ⫹ 1.5% ⫽ 4% This means that you will about double the real value of your portfolio every 18 years. (This is easily calculated from “the rule of 72,” which says that the return rate multiplied by the time it takes to double your assets will equal 72. In other words, at 6% return your capital will double every 12 years.) Take another break. Don’t look at this book for at least a few more days. In the next chapter we shall explore the strange and wondrous behavior of portfolios. Summary 1. Risk and reward are inextricably intertwined. Do not expect high returns without high risk.
The Intelligent Investor (Collins Business Essentials) by Benjamin Graham, Jason Zweig
3Com Palm IPO, accounting loophole / creative accounting, air freight, Andrei Shleifer, asset allocation, buy low sell high, capital asset pricing model, corporate governance, corporate raider, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversified portfolio, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, George Santayana, hiring and firing, index fund, intangible asset, Isaac Newton, Long Term Capital Management, market bubble, merger arbitrage, money market fund, new economy, passive investing, price stability, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, sharing economy, short selling, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, Steve Jobs, survivorship bias, the market place, the rule of 72, transaction costs, tulip mania, VA Linux, Vanguard fund, Y2K, Yogi Berra
) * This figure, now known as the “dividend payout ratio,” has dropped considerably since Graham’s day as American tax law discouraged investors from seeking, and corporations from paying, dividends. As of year-end 2002, the payout ratio stood at 34.1% for the S & P 500-stock index and, as recently as April 2000, it hit an all-time low of just 25.3%. (See www.barra.com/ research/fundamentals.asp.) We discuss dividend policy more thoroughly in the commentary on Chapter 19. * Why is this? By “the rule of 72,” at 10% interest a given amount of money doubles in just over seven years, while at 7% it doubles in just over 10 years. When interest rates are high, the amount of money you need to set aside today to reach a given value in the future is lower—since those high interest rates will enable it to grow at a more rapid rate. Thus a rise in interest rates today makes a future stream of earnings or dividends less valuable—since the alternative of investing in bonds has become relatively more attractive
* Today’s defensive investor should probably insist on at least 10 years of continuous dividend payments (which would eliminate from consideration only one member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average—Microsoft—and would still leave at least 317 stocks to choose from among the S & P 500 index). Even insisting on 20 years of uninterrupted dividend payments would not be overly restrictive; according to Morgan Stanley, 255 companies in the S & P 500 met that standard as of year-end 2002. † The “Rule of 72” is a handy mental tool. To estimate the length of time an amount of money takes to double, simply divide its assumed growth rate into 72. At 6%, for instance, money will double in 12 years (72 divided by 6 = 12). At the 7.1% rate cited by Graham, a growth stock will double its earnings in just over 10 years (72/7.1 = 10.1 years). * Graham makes this point on p. 73. † To show that Graham’s observations are perennially true, we can substitute Microsoft for IBM and Cisco for Texas Instruments.
A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing by Burton G. Malkiel
3Com Palm IPO, accounting loophole / creative accounting, Albert Einstein, asset allocation, asset-backed security, backtesting, beat the dealer, Bernie Madoff, BRICs, capital asset pricing model, compound rate of return, correlation coefficient, Credit Default Swap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edward Thorp, Elliott wave, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental subject, feminist movement, financial innovation, fixed income, framing effect, hindsight bias, Home mortgage interest deduction, index fund, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, margin call, market bubble, money market fund, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, Own Your Own Home, passive investing, Paul Samuelson, pets.com, Ponzi scheme, price stability, profit maximization, publish or perish, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, random walk, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, short selling, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, survivorship bias, The Myth of the Rational Market, the rule of 72, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, Vanguard fund, zero-coupon bond
Your $100 grows to $110 at the end of year one. Next year, you also earn 10 percent on the $110 you start with, so you have $121 at the end of year two. Thus, the total return over the two-year period is 21 percent. The reason it works is that the interest you earn from your original investment also earns interest. Carrying it out in year three, you have $133.10. Compounding is powerful indeed. A useful rule, called “the rule of 72,” gives you a shortcut way to find out how long it will take to double your money. Take the interest rate you earn and divide it into the number 72, and you get the number of years it will take to double your money. For example, if the interest rate is 15 percent, it takes a bit less than five years for your money to double (72 divided by 15 = 4.8 years). The implications of various growth rates for the size of future dividends are shown in the table below.
The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio by William J. Bernstein
asset allocation, Bretton Woods, British Empire, buy low sell high, carried interest, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dava Sobel, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edmond Halley, equity premium, estate planning, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, financial independence, financial innovation, fixed income, George Santayana, German hyperinflation, high net worth, hindsight bias, Hyman Minsky, index fund, invention of the telegraph, Isaac Newton, John Harrison: Longitude, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, market bubble, mental accounting, money market fund, mortgage debt, new economy, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, quantitative easing, railway mania, random walk, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, South Sea Bubble, survivorship bias, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the rule of 72, transaction costs, Vanguard fund, yield curve, zero-sum game
For example, at the height of the market froth in the spring of 2000, the three companies mentioned in the last paragraph sold at 48, 84, and 67 times earnings, respectively—from three to four times the valuation of a typical company. This means the market expected these companies to eventually increase their earnings relative to the size of the market to three or four times their current proportion. This is a tricky concept. Let us assume that the stock market grows its earnings at 5% per year. This means that over a 14-year period, it will approximately double its earnings. (This is according to the “Rule of 72,” which states that the earnings rate times the doubling time equals 72. In the above example, 72 divided by 5% is approximately 14. Or, alternatively, at a 12% growth rate, it takes only six years to double earnings.) If a glamorous growth company is selling at four times the P/E ratio of the rest of the market—say, 80 times earnings versus 20 times earnings—then the market is saying that during this same 14-year period, its earnings will grow by a factor of eight (4 × 2 = 8).
Naked Economics: Undressing the Dismal Science (Fully Revised and Updated) by Charles Wheelan
affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bretton Woods, capital controls, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, congestion charging, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, demographic transition, diversified portfolio, Doha Development Round, Exxon Valdez, financial innovation, fixed income, floating exchange rates, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, index fund, interest rate swap, invisible hand, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, libertarian paternalism, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Malacca Straits, market bubble, microcredit, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Network effects, new economy, open economy, presumed consent, price discrimination, price stability, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, random walk, rent control, Richard Thaler, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, The Market for Lemons, the rule of 72, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, trickle-down economics, urban sprawl, Washington Consensus, Yogi Berra, young professional, zero-sum game
From 1947 to 1975, productivity grew at an annual rate of 2.7 percent a year. From 1975 until the mid-1990s, for reasons that are still not fully understood, productivity growth slowed to 1.4 percent a year. Then it got better again; from 2000 to 2008, productivity growth returned to a much healthier 2.5 percent annually. That may seem like a trivial difference; in fact, it has a profound effect on our standard of living. One handy trick in finance and economics is the rule of 72; divide 72 by a rate of growth (or a rate of interest) and the answer will tell you roughly how long it will take for a growing quantity to double (e.g., the principal in a bank account paying 4 percent interest will double in roughly 18 years). When productivity grows at 2.7 percent a year, our standard of living doubles every twenty-seven years. At 1.4 percent, it doubles every fifty-one years.