M-Pesa

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pages: 383 words: 81,118

Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms by David S. Evans, Richard Schmalensee

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For example, it cost 30 Kenyan shillings (KShs) to send KShs 35,000 to a registered user and it cost KShs 400 to send that same amount to an unregistered person.12 That price structure provided strong incentives for senders to persuade those to whom they wanted to send money to register for M-PESA. Table 11-1 summarizes M-PESA’s fees as of 2009.13 TABLE 11-1 M-PESA’s fee structure, 2009 (in KShs) Transaction type Transaction range Customer charge Minimum Maximum Deposit cash 100 35,000 0 Send money to registered 100 35,000 30 M-PESA user Send money to 100 2,500 75 nonregistered M-PESA user 2,501 5,000 100 5,001 10,000 175 10,001 20,000 350 20,001 35,000 400 Withdraw cash by registered 100 2,500 25 M-PESA user at M-PESA 2,501 5,000 45 agent outlet 5,001 10,000 75 10,001 20,000 145 20,001 35,000 170 Withdraw cash by registered 200 2,500 30 M-PESA user at PesaPoint 2,501 5,000 60 ATM 5,001 10,000 100 10,001 20,000 175 Withdraw cash by 100 35,000 0 nonregistered M-PESA user Buy airtime (for self or other) 20 10,000 0 Platform Ignition When M-PESA opened its doors in March 2007, it had some members of all sides on board.

Other data shows that the number of registered users in March 2015 reached 25.7 million, which amounted 99 percent of the adult population (those over fifteen), and annual transaction volume reached 45 percent of GDP in 2014.18 FIGURE 11-4 Number of registered M-PESA users and transaction volume between March 2007 and March 2015 FIGURE 11-5 Number of M-PESA/CICO agents and transaction volume between March 2007 and March 2015 FIGURE 11-6 Annual M-PESA transaction volume as a percentage of GDP M-PESA got through the treacherous early months and went on to enjoy overwhelming success. Other mobile network operators in Kenya followed Safaricom’s lead and established mobile money systems. Mainly because of M-PESA’s great success, the people of this poor African country of only 44.9 million are more likely to use mobile money, and to conduct more transactions monthly, than the people of any other country in the world.19 But M-PESA’s success was far from inevitable. There’s an App for That Once people had signed on and were actively using the platform to transfer money, and M-PESA had its dense agent network throughout the country, it could consider other services that could use the same platform.

Using the Swahili word for money, pesa, it called the mobile money platform M-PESA and set it up as a subsidiary of Safaricom. M-PESA needed more than this technology, though. Kenyans needed a way to exchange cash for e-money that they could send, and M-PESA had to figure out a way they could exchange e-money for cash at the other end, since that’s what they needed to pay for virtually everything. That required a network of physical locations where people could put cash in to the mobile money system and take cash out. Building a network of specialized cash-in and cash-out (CICO) agents that would cover the country, particularly its rural areas, was unattractive to M-PESA for the same reason that banks found it uneconomical to build many rural branches: volumes would be too low at many locations to cover fixed costs. M-PESA had to attract a network of physical CICO agents that had already established businesses generating revenue streams that could help cover fixed costs.


pages: 382 words: 120,064

Bank 3.0: Why Banking Is No Longer Somewhere You Go but Something You Do by Brett King

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Within three months, there were 268,499 registered M-Pesa customers and within the first year, one million. By 2012, that number had climbed to 15 million customers. Almost half of the Kenyan population of 35 million have embraced M-Pesa in its short five-year history. Also impressive has been the increase in the number of monthly transactions, which increased by 4627 per cent over the period from July 2007 to July 2009. M-Pesa averages 11 to 14.6 person-to-person transfers each month, with over 56 billion Kenyan shillings a month (US$675m/month) moved through the M-Pesa network. Mobile money transfers in total crossed the 1-trillion shilling mark in 2011. With over 37,000 outlets and reseller agencies around Kenya, M-Pesa outstrips the top four banks’ reach by more than 50 to 1. This is why M-Pesa has become ubiquitous so quickly.

This is why M-Pesa has become ubiquitous so quickly. M-Pesa also facilitates bill payments for more than 700 companies across Africa. M-Pesa has now expanded its field abroad. In October 2009, Safaricom launched its M-Pesa services in the UK through Western Union, Provident Capital Transfers, KenTV and others. While there are some AML restrictions on the usage of M-Pesa for transfers by a single individual, the system still allows a Kenyan working in the UK to deposit pounds or euros in the UK with a remittance agent, and have his family or associates collect that money in Kenyan shillings back in the home country with the use of their mobile phone. With 37,000 outlets, 15 million users and close to $700m per month, the M-Pesa mobile payments network is a huge success. M-Pesa has extended its reach further across Africa with its relaunch of M-Pesa in Tanzania.

Many of us would be familiar with the rapid rise of M-Pesa as the world’s leading mobile-centric financial system. M-Pesa started as a project funded by the UK Government Department for International Development (DFID) to provide a means for more efficient collection of microfinance loan repayments (see the case study later in this chapter). While the initial goal for M-Pesa was quite humble, no one was prepared for its incredible growth. The system addressed a long-time systemic deficiency in the Kenyan financial system that excluded a majority of the population. In 2012, the World Bank estimated that 25 per cent of Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product runs through M-Pesa each year—not surprising, considering that around 50 per cent of the Kenyan population is on M-Pesa, which also has a positive effect on the users’ financial lives.


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Digital Bank: Strategies for Launching or Becoming a Digital Bank by Chris Skinner

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This is because electronic payment processing is both traceable and immediate, with no challenge of distance, and the best example of such change is seen in M-PESA in Kenya, although this is not a typical implementation of mobile payments. M-PESA – ‘M’ is for mobile and ‘PESA’ means money in Swahili – was launched in September 2007 when the Kenyan government asked Safaricom, a Division of Vodafone, to help improve the way money was moved between citizens. At that time, most payments from towns to villages were made through physical transport of notes and bills using bus and taxi drivers. Under the M-PESA system, agents manage the transfers with mobile text messaging, allowing simple and immediate real-time transfer. The result is that M-PESA has rapidly become the most trusted form of payment in Kenya and the mobile operator, Safaricom, is now the largest financial operator in the country. By 2010, M-PESA had attracted 9.5 million customers increasing to 17 million by 2013, of which over 10 million make at least one transaction per month.

So, the bank’s plan for 2020 is to have 200 branches, 5000 team members, 1 million customers and £20 billion of assets. M-PESA, KENYA An interview with John Maynard, Senior Business Development Manager for M-PESA at Vodafone Group Mobile payments have taken off massively over the past few years, with the most notable success being M-PESA in Kenya. Launched in March 2007, with an expected one million customers after year one, the system far exceeded expectations and now has over 17 million registered accounts. That represents nearly one account for every adult in Kenya, but the system has not been as successful overseas. What is it that constituted M-PESA’s success in Kenya and where does it go next? Perhaps you can give us a little background to start with as to why M-PESA has been so successful in Kenya and why did Vodafone get into this space?

Around 17% of Safaricom’s total revenues come from M-PESA, which is bigger than SMS and data combined. We make money from the network but so do our agents in the network. We have 40,000 agents in Kenya and believe we have created about 50,000 jobs. Those agents are also making money and enough money to employ people as a result. Why is that success not repeated in other countries? We were lucky in Kenya. We launched at the right time and the availability of the product during the turmoil following the elections of 2007-2008 helped Kenyans out – M-Pesa was the safest way to send cash or buy airtime. I don’t think we’ll see that success repeated so quickly elsewhere. Having said that, we’ve got 32 million customers registered worldwide (M-Pesa is live in 7 markets), and B if you look Tanzania, it shows an example of a market that has taken longer to get there but is now just as important.


pages: 364 words: 99,897

The Industries of the Future by Alec Ross

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How far this potential will ultimately bring Africa depends both on what new technologies and new creations will be produced and on how the financial and governance systems adapt. Kenya’s M-Pesa program is a prime example of these new technologies that show the growing power of coded money and markets. Pesa is Swahili for “money,” and “M” stands for mobile. In communities where bank accounts are rare, M-Pesa allows customers to send and receive payments through their cell phones. In Kenya, M-Pesa has become wildly successful. By 2012, 19 million M-Pesa accounts had been created in a country of 43 million people, and approximately 25 percent of Kenya’s GNP flows through the network. While estimates vary, the adoption of M-Pesa has increased rural households’ incomes anywhere from 5 to 30 percent. For such a huge impact, the way that M-Pesa works is incredibly simple. Anyone with a valid identification card or passport can register with one of the tens of thousands of M-Pesa agents in the region, located conveniently at gas stations, markets, and stores.

Anyone with a valid identification card or passport can register with one of the tens of thousands of M-Pesa agents in the region, located conveniently at gas stations, markets, and stores. Just hand over some cash to the agent, who then loads it onto the new account. If you want to send money, go to the M-Pesa menu on your phone and send a text to the intended recipient with the amount of money in the body of the text. Within seconds, the money is delivered. Withdrawing money is just as easy and can be done by visiting an M-Pesa agent or going to an ATM—no cards or bank offices needed. The process is safe, since M-Pesa verifies each transaction and keeps the money in an account at the Commercial Bank of Africa in Nairobi. In addition to money transfers, M-Pesa includes loans and savings products. Safaricom recently launched M-Shwari, Swahili for “cool” or “calm,” a new service that allows users to save and borrow money while earning interest.

How Did It Start?” OurMobileWorld.org, January 1, 2012, http://ourmobileworld.org/post/35349373601/what-is-mpesa-how-does-it-work-how-did-it-start. The process is safe, since M-Pesa: “Dial M for Money,” Economist, June 28, 2007, http://www.economist.com/node/9414419. M-Shwari also facilitates the disbursement: Ignacio Mas and Tonny Omwansa, “NexThought Monday: A Close Look at Safaricom’s M-Shwari,” next billion, December 10, 2012, http://www.nextbillion.net/blogpost.aspx?blogid=3050. In another program, M-Pesa works: “Deacons Kenya Customers to Pay Via M-Pesa,” Safaricom, March 15, 2011, http://www.safaricom.co.ke/personal/m-pesa/m-pesa-resource-centre?layout=edit&id=437. Approximately $40 billion is sent: Sanket Mohaprata and Dilip Ratha, Remittance Markets in Africa (Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2011), http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTDECPROSPECTS/Resources/476882-1157133580628/RMA_FullReport.pdf; “Remittances Gaining Increasing Importance in Africa: New Report from the African Development Bank,” SilverStreet Capital, July 22, 2013, http://www.silverstreetcapital.com/Publisher/File.aspx?


pages: 233 words: 66,446

Bitcoin: The Future of Money? by Dominic Frisby

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More and more people own one and a mobile is enough to transact via M-Pesa. Second is M-Pesa’s ease of use. Older, technologically naïve, rural folk will find it easier to get to grips with SMS payments than they will with downloading Bitcoin wallets and all the rest of it. The M-Pesa is a centralized money issued by mobile phone networks, unlike the decentralized open source creation that is Bitcoin. The M-Pesa has more limited use and less potential functionality than Bitcoin. It is not a money without borders. But given the stage of development that much of rural Asia and Africa is at, I’m inclined to agree that the M-Pesa has greater potential in these parts of the world over the next few years. It also has significant first-mover advantage. But the prospects of the M-Pesa emphasize the point that people the world over need better systems of sending money and that these better systems are coming.

In fact, something similar is already happening – but it doesn’t involve Bitcoin. It is most apparent in Kenya with the M-Pesa. M stands for mobile. Pesa is Swahili for money – so you have ‘mobile money’. It began quite organically in the early 2000s in various parts of Africa. People started transferring their mobile phone minutes – their airtime credits – to friends or family. This airtime, of course, has a definite value. Based on a ‘real thing’ it would become a modern day commodity currency. Safaricom and Vodafone both picked up on the practice and brought in systems to both regulate and facilitate it. You can send airtime, M-Pesas, by text (SMS) message. As early as 2009, such was the pace at which the M-Pesa was expanding, Kenyan banks actually lobbied the government to audit M-Pesa in an attempt to slow its growth. But it made little difference.

Now something like two-thirds of Kenyans now use the M-Pesa and as much as 43% of national GDP flows through it.190 Only 40% of Kenyans have a bank account.191 According to the World Bank, in 2012 over 70% had a mobile phone.192 With the M-Pesa, the ‘unbanked’ now have access to basic financial services. People can deposit and withdraw money, transfer money (even to non-users), pay bills, buy airtime and, in some cases, actually transfer money to a bank account. They can even obtain credit. This is precisely how Szabo envisages Bitcoin changing the world. Mobile phones are replacing banks. ‘Financial inclusion is reported to be at 80% in Kenya’, says Sitoyo Lopokoiyit of Safaricom. ‘When you remove mobile money, it drops to 23%. So you can see what mobile money does for financial inclusion in Kenya.’193 The M-Pesa has been launched in Tanzania, South Africa, India, Afghanistan and Eastern Europe.


pages: 275 words: 77,017

The End of Money: Counterfeiters, Preachers, Techies, Dreamers--And the Coming Cashless Society by David Wolman

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The shopkeeper’s account is credited the corresponding amount for the groceries.10 After less than four years of operation, M-Pesa counted thirteen million users—more than half the adults in the country. In contrast, it took a century for the conventional banking industry in Kenya to reach five million customers. Stores offering M-Pesa are in virtually every community, with the logo advertised in windows, on flags, or hand-painted on cinderblock walls. More money already passes through the M-Pesa system in Kenya than all the Western Union transactions worldwide.11 Kenya’s central bank has reported a drop in cash usage, and M-Pesa payments are now being accepted by a few of the country’s major retailers and the national airline.12 Other Kenyans, such as taxi drivers, load up their accounts whenever possible, so that they don’t have to hold on to cash. In the earliest days of the M-Pesa experiment, an anthropology researcher interviewed a man who put money on his phone while visiting one side of Nairobi, and then, just forty minutes later, took it out again in a shop on the other side of the city.

But it’s people in the developing world, where the only other option has always been cash, who could deliver cash its lethal blow. The early success story that has development experts doing backflips is a service in Kenya called M-Pesa (the M is for “mobile” and pesa is Kiswahili for “money”). It’s run by a subsidiary of the huge telecom company Vodafone, and the first thing you need to know is that M-Pesa isn’t a bank. It’s a transfer service akin to PayPal, but you don’t need an Internet hookup. To the people of Kenya, the benefits of this service have been staggering. Instead of spending two days on buses to deliver money to grandma back in the village, you can go to a local shop—any one of the 23,000 tied into the network of M-Pesa agents—plunk down the cash you want to convert and send, and then type in the necessary codes on your cell phone. Grandma receives a text that says money has been flashed to her account, and she goes to her local shop to redeem the cash.

But those rules are anachronistic now that mobile technology is enabling “branchless banking” accounts, allowing people to convert cash into electronic money almost anywhere and send it to a savings account. “That pharmacy you visited in Delhi—that is not a bank branch,” says Mas. “The stores are essentially selling electronic money (for cash), just like they would sell rice. They don’t hold anything.” Nor do the conduit companies. For M-Pesa users, Vodafone’s subsidiary in Kenya doesn’t hold the money. M-Pesa customer funds are pooled and held in trust in a regular old bank, depositor insurance and all. Should Vodafone go bankrupt tomorrow, or if executives suddenly decide they want to ditch the mobile money business and buy the Chicago Cubs, peoples’ money would, or should, be safe at the bank. The same goes for people using Eko: the money is with the State Bank of India and insured like the funds of other bank customers, whether or not Eko thrives or dies in the years to come.


pages: 457 words: 128,838

The Age of Cryptocurrency: How Bitcoin and Digital Money Are Challenging the Global Economic Order by Paul Vigna, Michael J. Casey

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The gambit worked; the group was able to get aid to an isolated community, and the cost of Safaricom’s transaction fees was far less than the cost of transporting food and material. Not only that, Concern Worldwide brought these remote villages technology that would prove useful beyond the crisis, and the crisis itself showed M-Pesa’s true worth to its customers, who’ve been steadfastly loyal ever since. An M-Pesa stand (© Tom Spender) M-Pesa has proven to be a lifesaver in other unusual ways, too. On its Web site, Vodafone notes that in Tanzania, where some citizens don’t live near a hospital and can’t afford to travel to one, an organization called Comprehensive Community Based Rehabilitation sent patients money via M-Pesa to cover their travel expenses. But here’s the rub: M-Pesa is not a frictionless system, and in some ways its drawbacks mirror those we’ve outlined in chapter 4: what appears automatic to the user has a massive, unwieldy, and expensive infrastructure behind it.

And Vodafone, which owns 40 percent of Safaricom, has rolled out the product in Tanzania, South Africa, Mozambique, Egypt, Fiji, India, and even Romania. To use M-Pesa, people sign up for an account and get an e-wallet on their phone. To add money to it, they go to their local Safaricom agent—more than fifteen thousand are spread across Kenya—and give the agent cash for an equivalent amount of “e-float.” This money isn’t actually held in the form of Kenyan shillings but as a separate claim on the overall M-Pesa e-float, all of which is backed by deposits in the banks with which Safaricom has accounts. Users can then send money to other M-Pesa account holders, buy airtime, or pay bills. To withdraw money, users go to the agent and put in for a withdrawal. As long as they have an equivalent amount of e-float in their account, the agent will hand them over the cash right there and then. M-Pesa had a few things going for it.

For one thing, Safaricom already had a massive infrastructure in place, not just the telecommunications equipment, but those thousands of agents. M-Pesa was also lucky enough to escape government regulation early on. Lastly, a different form of politics may have played a part. After the country’s hotly contested December 2007 election, violence burst out across Kenya. Scores were killed, and the entire country was thrust into a crisis. With the nation’s institutions essentially frozen, people realized there was one way to move money effectively: M-Pesa. For example, one relief group, Concern Worldwide, prevented by violence and cost from getting aid to the region’s remote Kerio Valley, found a solution in M-Pesa. They sent representatives into the valley and set people up with accounts, giving some families phones and solar chargers.


pages: 322 words: 84,752

Pax Technica: How the Internet of Things May Set Us Free or Lock Us Up by Philip N. Howard

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If the state is strong but the society weak, information technologies can do a lot to facilitate new forms of governance.36 Today, wherever financial institutions have failed whole communities, mobile phones support complex networks of private lending and community-banking initiatives. M-Pesa is a money-transfer system that relies on mobile phones, not on traditional banks or the government.37 Airtime provides an alternative currency to government-backed paper. Since several countries in Africa lack a banking sector with regulatory oversight, people have taken to using their phones to collect and transfer value. In the first half of 2012, M-Pesa moved some $8.6 billion, far from chump change.38 Moreover, people make personal sacrifices to gain access to the technology needed to participate in this new institutional arrangement. iHUB research found that people would forgo meat if it would save enough funds to allow them to make a call or to send a text message that might eventually result in some economic return.39 A typical day laborer in Kenya might earn a dollar a day, but the value of personal sacrifice for cell phone access amounts to eighty-four cents a week.40 Two-thirds of Kenyans now send money over the phone.

These days, in response, whenever or wherever financial institutions have failed whole communities, mobile phones support complex networks of private lending and community-banking initiatives. Plenty of other large projects involve institutional innovation through technology, so let’s evaluate a few. M-Pesa is a money-transfer system that relies on mobile phones, not banks or the government.8 Airtime itself has become a kind of transferable asset alternative to government-backed paper currency.9 M-Pesa is popular in Kenya, but almost every country in Africa has an equivalent service because the banking sectors are either corrupt, too small, or just not interested in serving the poor. Since the “governance good” that can come from having a banking sector that gets some regulatory oversight is missing, people have taken to using their phones to collect and transfer value.

Such projects, for example, use device networks to bear witness, publicize events, produce policy-relevant research, and attract new members.46 These may seem like isolated examples, but the reason such initiatives are important is that they are contagious. In the past ten years, we’ve gone from imagining that the internet might one day change the nature of governance to finding a plethora of examples of how this is done. Cell phone companies across Africa, Latin America, and Asia now offer asset-transfer systems, many of which are structured like M-Pesa. International aid can help to prop up a failing state and fund rebuilding operations in a state that has failed. Of course, people do the hard work of rebuilding. In the new world order, as people see their state falling apart, they pull out their mobile phones and make their own arrangements. Aging dictators may hold together dirty networks, but in many countries there are inspiring blooms of digital activism.


pages: 313 words: 84,312

We-Think: Mass Innovation, Not Mass Production by Charles Leadbeater

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1960s counterculture, Andrew Keen, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, c2.com, call centre, citizen journalism, clean water, cloud computing, complexity theory, congestion charging, death of newspapers, Debian, digital Maoism, double helix, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, frictionless, frictionless market, future of work, game design, Google Earth, Google X / Alphabet X, Hacker Ethic, Hernando de Soto, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jean Tirole, jimmy wales, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, lone genius, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, microcredit, new economy, Nicholas Carr, online collectivism, planetary scale, post scarcity, Richard Stallman, Silicon Valley, slashdot, social web, software patent, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, supply-chain management, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Whole Earth Catalog, Zipcar

What will happen when these bottom-up, self-help models are combined with low-cost communications technologies that allow mass collaboration? One glimpse of the future is M-PESA, a micro-finance pilot in Kenya, which uses mobile phones to connect borrowers and lenders. Only 1.3 per cent of Kenyans have Internet access and there are only 300,000 land-line telephones in the country, mainly in government offices. Only 10 per cent of people, mainly in towns, have bank accounts. Yet mobile-phone networks cover 70 per cent of the country and by 2007 some 6.5 million people had mobile phones, up from just 1 million in 2000. In 2004 Vodafone’s Kenyan affiliate, Safaricom, and the UK government’s Department for International Development (DFID) each invested about £900,000 in M-PESA (pesa means money in Swahili) which allows someone to use their mobile phone like a credit card or bank account. An M-PESA member can go to a mobile-phone airtime provider, usually a local shop, and upload some credit from their telephone service providers.

An M-PESA member can go to a mobile-phone airtime provider, usually a local shop, and upload some credit from their telephone service providers. They can use the credit themselves or transfer it to another user directly, without going through the bank. Kenya has few banks but lots of airtime dealers. Overnight M-PESA created a low-cost banking infrastructure that can be used from dawn till midnight, ideal for a highly distributed and poor population who transfer small sums: in the pilot phase of the project the average transfer between users was $4.50. In February 2007 Vodafone announced a joint venture with Citibank to take the M-PESA model worldwide, targeting transfers from the world’s 190 million migrant workers back to their families, transfers worth in total about $268 billion a year. The reach of services using mobile phones could be vast. In 1996 there were 15 million telephone lines in Africa.

Hundreds of millions of poor consumers will not be able to pay for high-cost, professional solutions to their needs for information, education, banking and health. They will be much more open to shared, collaborative solutions that blend the network and the village, the geek and the peasant. The slow-moving, top-heavy industrial models of organisation that developed in Europe and the US in the 20th century will not work in these fast-growing but low-income economies. They instead go for low-cost solutions such as Grameen and M-PESA that mobilise participants in their millions. Will We-Think be good for equality? Yes. Freedom In Thomas More’s Utopia, which is more a warning of the risks of living in an ideal society than a blueprint for one, there are no police because the citizens keep an eye on one another. Critics of the web such as Andrew Keen, author of the polemic Cult of the Amateur, allege that this is exactly what the web is creating: a user-generated police state, in which everyone keeps track of everyone else.


pages: 296 words: 86,610

The Bitcoin Guidebook: How to Obtain, Invest, and Spend the World's First Decentralized Cryptocurrency by Ian Demartino

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3D printing, AltaVista, altcoin, bitcoin, blockchain, buy low sell high, capital controls, cloud computing, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, distributed ledger, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, ethereum blockchain, fiat currency, Firefox, forensic accounting, global village, GnuPG, Google Earth, Haight Ashbury, Jacob Appelbaum, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, litecoin, M-Pesa, Marshall McLuhan, Oculus Rift, peer-to-peer lending, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, ransomware, Satoshi Nakamoto, self-driving car, Skype, smart contracts, Steven Levy, the medium is the message, underbanked, WikiLeaks, Zimmermann PGP

Not having to travel to perform banking services has proven to be very effective in turning the unbanked into the banked. M-Pesa is a mobile banking solution that was built by Safaricom, Kenya’s largest cell phone operator. It has been essential for remittance within Kenya (from urban immigrants to their rural hometowns) and basic banking services for Kenya’s lower classes. M-Pesa is nothing like a cryptocurrency; it is centralized and keeps track of fiat balances rather than acting as its own currency. It’s a bit as if PayPal were created by AT&T and existed solely on cell phones, and there were money-exchange stores all over the nation where you could withdraw cash from your account or pay bills directly. This penetration has led to attempts by Bitcoin remittance companies to piggyback off the success of M-Pesa’s success and use it for the last mile of Bitcoin remittance in Kenya.

This penetration has led to attempts by Bitcoin remittance companies to piggyback off the success of M-Pesa’s success and use it for the last mile of Bitcoin remittance in Kenya. Both igot and BitPesa integrate with M-Pesa and expand the advantages it offers for domestic remittance internationally. People can send Bitcoin to their families in these countries using their cell phones; the recipients can use their own phones to exchange that money into M-Pesa money that can then be turned into fiat as it normally is.14,15 Bitcoin needs use cases beyond speculative trading and the purchase of black-market and gray-market goods. Its use cases also have to involve something Bitcoin can do better than current fiat options. Remittance is an obvious candidate. It can do what fiat currencies can more cheaply and quickly. It can also accomplish tasks impossible for customers using traditional services, such as sending small or extremely large amounts of money or providing advanced investment services for the previously unbanked.

Accessed June 22, 2015. https://localbitcoins.com/statistics. 13 Renzenbrink, Anne. “World Bank: 75 Percent of Poor Don’t Have Bank Accounts.” CNN. April 19, 2011. Accessed June 22, 2015. http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/19/business/poor-bank-accounts/index.html. 14 Torpey, Kyle. “Bitcoin Exchange Igot Launches in Kenya via M-Pesa Integration.” Inside Bitcoins. February 25, 2015. Accessed June 22, 2015. http://insidebitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-exchange-igot-launches-in-kenya-via-m-pesa-integration/30194. 15 Vigna, Paul. “Kenya’s BitPesa Launches Beta Test of Remittance Service.” MoneyBeat RSS. May 23, 2014. Accessed June 22, 2015. http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/05/23/kenyas-bitpesa-launches-beta-test-of-remittance-service/. Chapter 19: Microtransactions When the Internet first came into public use, it was hailed as a liberation from conformity, a floating world ruled by passion, creativity, innovation and freedom of information.


pages: 494 words: 116,739

Geek Heresy: Rescuing Social Change From the Cult of Technology by Kentaro Toyama

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Albert Einstein, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, blood diamonds, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, cognitive dissonance, computer vision, conceptual framework, delayed gratification, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, fundamental attribution error, germ theory of disease, global village, Hans Rosling, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Khan Academy, Kibera, knowledge worker, libertarian paternalism, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, microcredit, mobile money, Nicholas Carr, North Sea oil, pattern recognition, Peter Singer: altruism, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, randomized controlled trial, rent-seeking, RFID, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, school vouchers, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, technoutopianism, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Upton Sinclair, Walter Mischel, War on Poverty, winner-take-all economy, World Values Survey, Y2K

The Panic Virus: A True Story of Medicine, Science, and Fear. Simon and Schuster. Morawczynski, Olga. (2011). Examining the adoption, usage and outcomes of mobile money services: The case of M-PESA in Kenya. PhD Thesis, University of Edinburgh, https://www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/bitstream/1842/5558/2/Morawczynski2011.pdf. Morawczynski, Olga, and Mark Pickens. (2009). Poor people using mobile financial services: Observations on customer usage and impact from M-PESA. CGAP Brief, Aug. 2009, https://www.cgap.org/sites/default/files/CGAP-Brief-Poor-People-Using-Mobile-Financial-Services-Observations-on-Customer-Usage-and-Impact-from-M-PESA-Aug-2009.pdf. Morozov, Evgeny. (2011). The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom. PublicAffairs. ———. (2013). To Save Everything Click Here: The Folly of Technological Solutionism.

For a comprehensive overview of telecenter research, see Sey and Fellows (2009). 9.Digital Green was modeled on another project we supported at Microsoft Research India called Digital StudyHall (n.d.). 10.Gandhi et al. (2009). 11.For an alternate description of Digital Green, see Bornstein (2014). 12.Jack and Suri (2011), Mbiti and Weil (2011), and Morawczynski and Pickens (2009) all report that the frequency of urban-rural remittances is greater with M-PESA. Mbiti and Weil (2011) and Morawczynski and Pickens (2009) also suggest that the total amount of remittances is greater. Morawczynski’s (2011) PhD thesis looks at M-PESA’s rise and usage patterns in depth. 13.It’s very tempting at this point to suggest that Partner X become the go-between between the Internet and Partner X’s constituents. Whatever pregnant mothers want to know, Partner X would look up online and relay to the mothers. But unless Partner X has health-care providers on its staff, this is naïve and dangerous.

See Radio; Television The Matrix (film), 54 Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan (MKSS), 113 McFerrin, Bobby, 91 McGonigal, Jane, 115 Measles, 65, 212 Measurement, fetish of, 91–95 Medhi, Indrani, 27–28, 189 Memorabilia (Xenophon), 209 Menon, Geeta, 17 Mentorship aspirations, 199–201 building the relationship, 197–199 business, 205 corruption, 198, 202, 271–272(n12) difference from other approaches, 198, 202–203, 205 hope, 271(n9) incentives, 272(n15) intrinsic growth, 201–202 moral responsibility for outcomes, 271(n11) multilevel application, 208–209 packaged interventions and, 206–208 teaching as, 202–203 time commitment, 203–204 youth development, 272(n16) See also Education and training Merchants of Culture: The Publishing Business in the Twenty-First Century (Thompson), 75–76 Meritocracy, 79, 93, 96, 97–98, 181 Mexico: for-profit microlending, 58–60, 66–67, 236(n7) Microcredit alternatives to, 57–60 beneficiary demographics, 61 evaluation of, 59–61, 236–237(n14) financial education, 124 global spending on, 72 importance of implementation, 61, 66–72 packaged intervention, 57–61, 66–72 India’s failed institutions, 236(n7) India’s self-help groups, 196 leaders, implementers, and beneficiaries, 66–68 Microfinance Information Exchange, 72 Microsoft Corporation, xi–xiv, 4, 7, 44, 114, 159–160, 162, 164, 166, 183–184, 227(n2) Microsoft Research India, xiv, 3–7, 17–20, 27–29, 31–32, 103–109, 122–125, 141–142, 183–184, 188–189, 227(n6), 247(n9) Miguel, Ted, 143–144 Mill, John Stuart, 88 Mischel, Walter, 173, 251–252(n15) Mitra, Sugata, 11–12, 125, 228(n24) Mobile phones Arab Spring, 33 aspirational consumption, 200–201 digital divide, 234(n24) international development, ix–xi, 25, 28, 37, 49, 69, 91, 108, 110, 209, 234(n24) interpersonal communication, 29, 40–41 micro-entrepreneurs, 28 saving the world with, ix–xi, 91, 110, 234(n24) texting, 25, 56, 69, 235(n33) unintended consequences of technology, 56 See also M-PESA transfer system Modernization, 174–188 aspirations and, 178–182 India, 3, 174–177, 182, 185 Japan, 179, 266(n11) mass values, 179–182 process of, 178, 266–267(n11) United States, 177–178 See also Economics; International development Money transfer systems, 108, 247(n12) Moral relativism, 97, 169, 263–264(n44) Moral self-licensing, 86, 243(n34) Morozov, Evgeny, 23, 35–36, 214, 236(n1) Morsi, Mohamed, 62 Motivation, 90, 126–129, 162–164, 259(n6). See also Maslow’s hierarchy of needs M–PESA transfer system, 108, 247(n12) Mubarak, Hosni, 37 MultiPoint, 4–5, 15–16, 29–30, 227(n2) Mumford, Lewis, 37 Murphy, Tim, 42 Music advantages of learning, 192–193, 208 distraction of, 119, 123, 231(n25) Law of Amplification, 38–40 marketing, 233(n1) self-actualization, 168, 186 Shanti Bhavan curriculum, 141 shrinking middle, 76 Venezuela’s El Sistema, 193–194, 207–208, 270(n2), 273(n23) See also Walkman, Sony Mycoskie, Blake, 84–87, 243(n31) The Myth of the Machine (Mumford), 37 Nakkalbande, Bangalore, India, 17–19 Narasimha (cab driver), 174–177, 188 Narcissism, 166, 262(n34), 275(n4) National development.


pages: 370 words: 112,602

Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty by Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo

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Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, Cass Sunstein, charter city, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, congestion charging, demographic transition, diversified portfolio, experimental subject, hiring and firing, land tenure, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, microcredit, moral hazard, purchasing power parity, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, school vouchers, Silicon Valley, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thomas Malthus, urban planning

The “self-help groups” popular in India and elsewhere represent one way to reduce costs, leveraging the idea that if members pool their savings and coordinate their withdrawals and deposits, the total amount in the account will be larger, and the bank will be happy to take it. Technology can also play a role. In Kenya, M-PESA allows users to deposit money into an account linked to their cell phones and then use the cell phone to send money to other people’s accounts and to make payments. Someone like Jennifer Auma, for example, could deposit cash at one of the many local grocery shops that happens to be an M-PESA correspondent. This would credit her M-PESA account. She could then send a text message to her cousin in Lamu, who would be able to present the text message to his local correspondent to get his money. Once he gets the cash, the money would be deducted from her M-PESA account. Once M-PESA is linked to banks, people will be able to wire money in and out of their savings accounts using a local M-PESA correspondent, without having to trek all the way to the bank.

Banerji, Rukmini Bangladesh Rehabilitation Assistance Committee (BRAC) Bank of America Banking Correspondent Act Bankruptcy Banks problems with Barker, David Basic skills, focus on Basix Becker, Gary Bed nets buying income gain and subsidized Beliefs faith and weak Ben Sedan, Allal Bhopa diseases, doctor diseases and Bloomberg, Michael Bongaarts, John Boyce, Jim Brain process Breast-feeding Bribes Burgess, Robin Business process outsourcing centers (BPOs) Businesses borrowing by investment in poor and Businesses (continued) profits for small/medium starting Calories consumption of production and Capital capitalists without human Case, Anne Castes Casual labor Centers for Disease Control Chattopadhyay, Raghabendra Chavan, Madhav Child mortality Children educated family size and as financial instruments higher-caste/lower-caste income and Chlorin Chlorine Cica Das Citibank Civil liberties Civil society Cohen, Jessica Coimbatore Collier, Paul Common Wealth (Sachs) Community Driven Development Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) Consumption Contraception access to availability of Corruption fighting Cortisol Credit Curriculum Dai Manju Das, Jishnu Data Deaton, Angus Debt freedom from Decentralization Decisionmaking family Default rates Demand wallahs Democracy in practice Depression Development economics Deworming Dhaliwal, Iqbal Diarrhea treating Dickens, Charles Diet poor and rich and Discrimination Diseases Doctor diseases, bhopa diseases and Doctors allopatic government private/public Dreze, Jean Drought Dry sand, making Duflo, Esther fertilizer and panchayat survey by Dupas, Pascaline study by Earth Institute East India Company College Easterly,William bed nets and demand wallahs and democracy and poverty traps and on RCT Economic growth Education family size and girls and income and investing in parental interest in poverty and primary quality reengineering remedial secondary value of Education for All Summit (2000) Education policy demand wallahs and supply wallahs and tools of choice in top-down “Efficient household” model Einstein, Albert Elders, caring for Emergency (1975–1977) Emptat, Ibu Entrepreneurs micro- rules of thumb and Entrepreneurship microcredit and poor and problems with rates of return for technologies and Ethnicity Experiment Faith Family extended function of Family planning encouraging Family Planning and Maternal and Child Health Program (FPMCH) Family size education and savings and Farmers insurance and suicide of Farming Fertility control over decrease in income and rates therapies Fertilizer buying using Field, Erica Financial instruments, children as Financial sector Financing Fish sauce Fogel, Robert Food aid availability of budget for consumption of income and prices Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Food prices Foreign aid Foster, Andrew Foundation for International Community Assistance (FINCA) Free markets Fruit and vegetable sellers Funerals, spending on Gandhi, Indira Gandhi, Sanjay Gates Foundation Gibbons, Donna Governments credibility for foreign aid and local problems for Gram Panchayat (GP) Gram Vikas Grameen Bank Green, Donald Green, Jennifer Green Revolution Hammer, Jeff Harlem Children’s Zone Hartman, Betsey Harvest Plus Hatch, John Health free market economists and improving investing in maternal Health care effectiveness of family size and immunizations and learning about overtreatment and problem of spending on Health insurance market for problems with providing Health shocks Health trap Helms, Brigit HIV/AIDS Hope Hospitalization Hunger Hyderabad businesses in schools in survey in Ibu Emptat Ibu Tina shock on fortunes of ICICI ICS Africa Ideology Immunization benefits of health care and incentives for information about rates Immunization camps Income agricultural children and decline in drought and education and fertility and food and growth of illness and malaria and steady/predictable Indian Council of Medical Research Indian Institute of Management Indian Institute of Technology Information collecting imperfect Infosys INPRES Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Institutions bad colonial economic innovation by international manipulating political See also Microfinance institutions Insurance demand for fraud health informal poor and understanding weather Insurance companies, poor and Interest rates poor and International Child Support Intervention education government public supply-side top-down Investments Iodine Iron Iron law of oligarchy Iyer, Lakshmi Jensen, Robert Jobs buying good Johnson, Simon Jolie, Angelina Karlan, Dean KAS, bankruptcy of Kecamatan Development Project (KDP) Kennedy (farmer) Keynes, John Maynard Khanna,Tarun Khetan, Neelima Knowledge Is Power Program (KIPP) schools Kremer, Michael on chlorine dispenser fertilizers and SAFI and Kristof, Nicholas L-shape curve Law Commission of India Learning and Educational Achievement in Pakistan Schools (LEAPS) Learning to Read Lehman Brothers Lei, Miao Levy, Santiago Loans collecting on emergency government-sponsored home-equity home improvement local long-term project mandatory political priorities and poor and problems with repaying London School of Economics Lotteries, business grant M-PESA Macro programs, micro insight for Madiath, Joe Malaria eradication of Malnutrition Malthus,Thomas Maquilladoras Margin, changes at Marginal return Maternal mortality Matlab program Mbarbk, Oucha Medicare Medicine Meillassoux, Claude Microcredit effectiveness of limits of poor/future and Microfinance contracts movement Microfinance (continued) poor and poverty and repayment discipline and Microfinance institutions (MFIs) borrowing from insurance for loans from microcredit and monitoring by poor and subsidizing of successful borrowers and zero default and See also Institutions Micronutrient Initiative Micronutrients Migration Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Miller, Nolan Miracles, underutilized Modimba, Anna Modimba, Michael Moneylenders MFIs and problems for Monitoring Mor, Nachiket Moral hazards Moyo, Dambisa Mullainathan, Sendhil Munshi, Kaivan Murthy, Narayan National Family Health Survey (NFHS 3) NGOs Nilekani, Nandan Nudges Nurses Nutrition calories and family size and income and obesity/diabetes and poverty traps and pregnancy and Olken, Benjamin Olympic Games, poor countries and Omidyar, Pierry One-child policy OPORTUNIDADES Opportunities Opportunity International Oral rehydration solution (ORS) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Orwell, George Otieno, Wycliffe Pak Awan Pak Solhin poverty trap and Pak Sudarno Pande, Rohini Parmentier, Antoine Paternalism Paxson, Chris Pensions Performance Pitt, Mark Police Act (1861) Police Reform Commissions Policies anti-poverty developing education food good/bad macroeconomic one-child politics and population social Political economy Politics economics and ethnic good policies and women and Population control Population Council Population growth Population policy Population Services International (PSI) Poverty breaking cycle of decrease in education and eradicating extreme fertility and hunger and microfinance and self-control and Poverty Action Lab Poverty trap education and escaping health-based inverted L-shape and nutrition and S-shape curve and Pradhan Prahalad, C.

Frugal Innovation: How to Do Better With Less by Jaideep Prabhu Navi Radjou

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3D printing, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bretton Woods, business climate, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, connected car, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, Elon Musk, financial innovation, global supply chain, income inequality, industrial robot, Internet of things, job satisfaction, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, late fees, Lean Startup, low cost carrier, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, megacity, minimum viable product, more computing power than Apollo, new economy, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, precision agriculture, race to the bottom, reshoring, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Ronald Coase, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, smart grid, smart meter, software as a service, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, TaskRabbit, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, women in the workforce, X Prize, yield management, Zipcar

In November 2013, IBM inaugurated its first African R&D lab in Nairobi, Kenya – a Silicon Savannah – a frugal innovation hotbed that draws on mobile phone technology. Nearly 20 million Kenyans now use M-Pesa, a mobile-based money transfer service whose users do not need a bank account (indeed, many Kenyans may decide that they will never need one). Over 50% of Kenya’s GDP flows through M-Pesa. Charles Graeber, a Bloomberg BusinessWeek contributor, spent ten days in Kenya with no cash or debit or credit card, relying on his phone to pay for taxis, food, accommodation and even safari tours. He concluded:24 “I feel like a caveman who’s just been handed a Bic lighter.” Increasingly, M-Pesa is becoming the source of other disruptive business models in energy, education and health care. M-KOPA, a solar lighting solution, allows Kenyans to lease the solar equipment and make micro-payments using M-Pesa. When all the instalments have been paid, consumers own the product and receive free, clean electricity.

Distributing to the last mile Fulfilling orders for customers in far-flung locations is a particular challenge. The so-called last-mile challenge exists because it is costly for companies to deploy physical distribution (such as bank branches or retail stores) in places with few users. Innovative distribution models, which make use of trusted locals and networks, are often used in emerging markets. These include using corner shops for financial services (for example, M-Pesa in Kenya) and community personnel to sell consumer goods (for example, Unilever’s Project Shakti and Essilor’s door-to-door ophthalmic-lens salespeople in rural India). US and European companies can use such proximity networks to solve the last-mile problem in Western markets as well. Integrating manufacturing and logistics In the mass-production model, companies first make their products and then move them to customers.

When all the instalments have been paid, consumers own the product and receive free, clean electricity. M-Pesa and M-KOPA embody kanju, an African “make do” attitude that makes the best use of what people already have – mobile interconnectivity and abundant sunshine.25 Researchers at IBM’s Nairobi lab use kanju to improve the city’s traffic congestion, which is among the worst in the world. They have adapted a clever solution, Megaffic, originated by their Japanese colleagues, which optimises traffic flows by predicting congestion points and offering drivers alternative routes. Rather than relying on costly roadside sensors, as in Western capitals, this frugal solution uses image processing and advanced analytics to detect traffic conditions from a small number of low-resolution webcams installed in roads in Nairobi. As Osamuyimen Stewart, co-founder and chief scientist at IBM Research – Africa, explains:26 IBM couldn’t come to Africa with a big technology armoury and ask local governments to invest billions of dollars in the costly solutions we sell in the West.


pages: 271 words: 52,814

Blockchain: Blueprint for a New Economy by Melanie Swan

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23andMe, Airbnb, altcoin, Amazon Web Services, asset allocation, banking crisis, bioinformatics, bitcoin, blockchain, capital controls, cellular automata, central bank independence, clean water, cloud computing, collaborative editing, Conway's Game of Life, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, disintermediation, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, ethereum blockchain, fault tolerance, fiat currency, financial innovation, Firefox, friendly AI, Hernando de Soto, Internet Archive, Internet of things, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, litecoin, Lyft, M-Pesa, microbiome, Network effects, new economy, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, post scarcity, prediction markets, ride hailing / ride sharing, Satoshi Nakamoto, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, sharing economy, Skype, smart cities, smart contracts, smart grid, software as a service, technological singularity, Turing complete, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, web application, WikiLeaks

Having neutrality-oriented, easy-to-use solutions (the “Twitter of emerging market Bitcoin”) for Bitcoin could trigger extremely fast uptake in underbanked markets, continuing the trend of 31 percent of Kenya’s GDP being spent through mobile phones.95 There are different SMS Bitcoin wallets and delivery mechanisms (like 37Coins96 and Coinapult, and projects like Kipochi97 that are integrated with commonly used emerging-markets mobile finance platforms like M-Pesa. A similar project is a mobile cryptowallet app, Saldo.mx, which uses the Ripple open source protocol for clearing, and links people living in the United States and Latin America for the remote payment of bills, insurance, airtime, credit, and products. Digital Divide of Bitcoin The term digital divide has typically referred to the gap between those who have access to certain technologies and those who do not.

Global Public Health: Bitcoin for Contagious Disease Relief Another application of blockchain health is in global public health, for the efficient, immediate, targeted delivery of aid funds for supplies in the case of crises like Ebola and other contagious disease breakouts.133 Traditional banking flows hamper the immediacy of aid delivery in crisis situations, as opposed to Bitcoin, which can be delivered immediately to specific publicly auditable trackable addresses. Individual peer-to-peer aid as well as institutional aid could be contributed via Bitcoin. In emerging markets (often with cellphone penetration or 70 percent or higher) there are a number of SMS Bitcoin wallets and delivery mechanisms, such as 37Coins134 and Coinapult, and projects such as Kipochi135 that are integrated with commonly used mobile finance platforms like M-Pesa (in Kenya, for example, 31 percent of the GDP is spent through mobile phones136). Apps could be built on infectious disease tracking sites like Healthmap and FluTrackers to include Bitcoin donation functionality or remunerative appcoin more generally. Charity Donations and the Blockchain—Sean’s Outpost Perhaps the world’s best-known Bitcoin-accepting charity is Sean’s Outpost, a homeless outreach nonprofit organization based in Pensacola, Florida.

Bitcoin Forum, June 24, 2011. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=21732.0. 93 Chaia, A. et al. “Half the World Is Unbanked.” McKinsey & Co, March 2009. http://mckinseyonsociety.com/half-the-world-is-unbanked/. 94 “2013 FDIC National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households,” U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, updated October 28, 2014, https://www.fdic.gov/householdsurvey/. 95 Mims, C. “M-Pesa: 31% of Kenya’s GDP Is Spent Through Mobile Phones.” Quartz, February 27, 2013. http://qz.com/57504/31-of-kenyas-gdp-is-spent-through-mobile-phones/. 96 Cawrey, D. “37Coins Plans Worldwide Bitcoin Access with SMS-Based Wallet.” CoinDesk, May 20, 2014. http://www.coindesk.com/37coins-plans-worldwide-bitcoin-access-sms-based-wallet/. 97 Rizzo, P. “How Kipochi Is Taking Bitcoin into Africa.” CoinDesk, April 25, 2014. http://www.coindesk.com/kipochi-taking-bitcoin-africa/. 98 It is not impossible that two files could produce the same hash, but the chance is one in trillions of trillions or more. 99 Cawrey, D.


pages: 424 words: 121,425

How the Other Half Banks: Exclusion, Exploitation, and the Threat to Democracy by Mehrsa Baradaran

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access to a mobile phone, affirmative action, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, barriers to entry, British Empire, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cashless society, credit crunch, David Graeber, disintermediation, diversification, failed state, fiat currency, financial innovation, financial intermediation, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, housing crisis, income inequality, Internet Archive, invisible hand, Kickstarter, M-Pesa, McMansion, microcredit, mobile money, moral hazard, mortgage debt, new economy, Own Your Own Home, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, price discrimination, profit maximization, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, savings glut, the built environment, the payments system, too big to fail, trade route, transaction costs, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, union organizing, white flight, working poor

The main roadblock to a Wal-Mart bank will be the nation’s large and small banks, who will certainly wage war on any proposed law that allows Wal-Mart to lend—just as they did in 2005 when Wal-Mart applied for a banking charter.76 MOBILE BANKING Mobile banking, or conducting financial transactions using your mobile phone either through a bank or through an independent provider, has not taken off in the United States but is an international phenomenon. The M-Pesa program in Kenya is the most-cited example of mobile banking successfully leading to financial inclusion. In 2007, Kenya’s leading mobile company, Safaricom, joined up with the Central Bank of Kenya to launch M-Pesa for Kenyans, who are 80 percent unbanked. As of January 2013 (in just under six years), 17 million adults (approximately 74 percent of Kenya’s adult population) used M-Pesa, and over 25 percent of Kenya’s gross domestic product was funneled through mobile money services.77 With over forty thousand agents across the country, users can make deposits, transfer funds to anyone with a mobile phone, pay bills, distribute employee salaries, and even get loans.

Financial inclusion of the unbanked in Kenya has resulted in significant benefits. Not only do Kenyans waste less time waiting in lines at banks or paying bills, one study even found that in rural Kenya, households that used M-Pesa enjoyed increased incomes of 5 to 30 percent! In addition, the network’s ease and reliability has led to a host of new startups, which are building their business models on M-Pesa. This success has influenced many countries, including the Philippines, Uganda, South Africa, India, Afghanistan, and Romania, to attempt similar programs. None of these programs have yet to enjoy the broad success of M-Pesa. In some ways, Kenya had the perfect political and economic environment to launch this product: a strong central bank, a powerful mobile provider with a monopoly, a weak coalition of national banks, and a large majority of the public with a mobile phone but no bank account.

., 40, 42 Morris, Arthur, 94, 98, 214 Morris Banks, 94–99, 153, 181 Morris Plan, 96 Mortgage lending: and GSEs, 18; race in, 47; redlining, 47, 50, 90, 154, 163; discrimination in, 49; by savings banks, 79; by savings and loans, 92–93; Adjustable Rate Mortgages, 93; standardization of, 150; subprime loans, 156, 157, 158–159, 160, 288n75. See also Fannie Mae; Freddie Mac; home financing; homeownership M-Pesa, 177–178 Nash, Ogden, 140 National Bank Acts, 37 National Credit Union Administration v. First National Bank and Trust Co., 74 National Credit Union Association (NCUA), 71, 74, 75 National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund, 71 National Currency Act, 36 National Farmer’s Alliance, 193 National Federation of Community Development Credit Unions, 76–77 National Housing Act, 46 National Housing Association (NHA), 258n126 National Monetary Commission, 40 Native American reservations, 110, 125 NCUA (National Credit Union Association), 74, 75 Nehemiah, 103, 109 New Deal: banking reforms during, 45–48; social contract of, 52; credit unions in, 70; building and loans in, 89; opposition to, 201.


pages: 464 words: 127,283

Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia by Anthony M. Townsend

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1960s counterculture, 4chan, A Pattern Language, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, anti-communist, Apple II, Bay Area Rapid Transit, Burning Man, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, charter city, chief data officer, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, computer age, congestion charging, connected car, crack epidemic, crowdsourcing, DARPA: Urban Challenge, data acquisition, Deng Xiaoping, East Village, Edward Glaeser, game design, garden city movement, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, ghettoisation, global supply chain, Grace Hopper, Haight Ashbury, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, interchangeable parts, Internet Archive, Internet of things, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, Jane Jacobs, jitney, John Snow's cholera map, Khan Academy, Kibera, knowledge worker, load shedding, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, mobile money, mutually assured destruction, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, Occupy movement, openstreetmap, packet switching, patent troll, place-making, planetary scale, popular electronics, RFC: Request For Comment, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, social software, social web, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stuxnet, supply-chain management, technoutopianism, Ted Kaczynski, telepresence, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, too big to fail, trade route, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, working poor, working-age population, X Prize, Y2K, zero day, Zipcar

Its American equivalent, the Khan Academy, requires an expensive laptop and high-speed Internet connection to access its recorded video lectures and chat rooms.22 In Kenya mobiles are the backbone of a new branchless banking system that is bringing financial services to millions for the first time. M-Pesa, named after the Swahili word for money, launched in 2007 and is now used by over 15 million people. Instead of building out a costly network of branches, or even automated teller machines, M-Pesa uses small retailers as its tellers. Through a secure process that confirms the electronic transfer in seconds, customers can withdraw or deposit cash with a few clicks. But as more of the country moves to electronic transfers, many transactions never even materialize as cash, flowing through the system entirely electronically. Safaricom, the country’s dominant wireless carrier, created M-Pesa as a public-service initiative with a million-pound grant from the British government, and never expected it to turn a profit.

Safaricom, the country’s dominant wireless carrier, created M-Pesa as a public-service initiative with a million-pound grant from the British government, and never expected it to turn a profit. Instead, it broke even in just two years and now delivers nearly one-sixth of the firm’s revenues. During peak use, over two hundred transactions per second and 20 percent of Kenya’s GDP streams through the M-Pesa network.23 It is being rolled out across India, where it could eventually bring banking to hundreds of millions of poor people. Most of the world’s cities are now lit up by some kind of wireless service. But as Ericsson, a leading supplier of network equipment, points out, “Reaching the next billion subscribers means expanding to rural off-grid areas.”24 The company has developed highly efficient solar-powered cell towers for use in outlying areas where there is no electric-power infrastructure. On the consumer side, in 2010 Vodafone launched a $32 solar-powered phone in India.25 Presumably, the arrival of modern telecommunications in the countryside might provide new local economic opportunities and slow migration to cities.

“Imagine it’s 2009, the rains are late, and food and fuel prices are rising,” said Robert Kirkpatrick, director of the organization’s Global Pulse project. “What would it have looked like in data collected by a mobile operator?”30 He rattled off a list of telltale signs of distress. People might shift to smaller, more frequent purchases of airtime as their economic anxiety increased. Increased defaults on microloans would show up in payment systems like M-Pesa. Calls to livestock dealers would spike as families liquidated agricultural assets to survive. Phones purchased in villages would suddenly request connections with urban cell towers, as displaced farmers flooded the city looking for work. The financial crisis of 2008 hit the world’s poor hard. Food and fuel prices were already rising just as the contagion spreading through global financial markets released a parallel shock wave at the bottom of the pyramid.


pages: 225 words: 61,388

Dead Aid: Why Aid Is Not Working and How There Is a Better Way for Africa by Dambisa Moyo

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affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, Bretton Woods, colonial rule, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, diversification, diversified portfolio, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, failed state, financial innovation, financial intermediation, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, invisible hand, M-Pesa, market fundamentalism, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, microcredit, moral hazard, Ponzi scheme, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, sovereign wealth fund, The Chicago School, trade liberalization, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, Washington Consensus, Yom Kippur War

In Latin America, for example, the International Remittance Network facilitates remittance flows from the United States to Latin America. Similar initiatives in Africa would undoubtedly do the same. It is encouraging to note that innovative mobile phone technology is making it both cheaper and quicker for people to send and receive money. In April 2007, a money transfer system called M-Pesa was launched in Kenya enabling subscribers to send large sums of money in an instant transaction. Within just two weeks of the launch over 10,000 account holders were registered and more than US$100,000 had been transferred. At the moment the M-Pesa programme only facilitates money transfers within the country’s borders, usually from richer urban dwellers to their poorer rural relations. However, there are plans underway to roll the scheme out on an international basis, not only tapping the billions of international remittances Kenyans regularly send home, but doing it in the most competitive way – that is, getting more cash into the recipient’s pocket.

D. 46 Heavily Indebted Poorest Country debt relief programme (HIPC) 53 HIV–AIDS pandemic 4–5, 7, 71–2 Hu Jintao 104, 108 Human Development Report (1994) 52 Hungary 85–6 IMF (International Monetary Fund) aid warning 47 appointment of Irwin Blumenthal 53 debt crisis 18–19 and foreign capital 63 inception 11–13 and Malawi 55–6 and ‘nit-picking’ 108–9 Structural Adjustment Facilities 21 In Search of Prosperity (Rodrik) 34 India 112, 117, 123, 132, 134, 137–8 India–Africa Forum 112, 123 Indonesia 34, 56 Industrial and Commercial Bank (China) 106 inflation 61–5 innovation 139–40 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development see World Bank International Development Association (IDA) 37–8 International Development and Food Assistance Act (US 1975) 16 International Peace Research Institute (Stockholm) 59 International Remittance Network 136 International Trade Organization 11 investment bonds 77–83, 87–96 borrowing costs 84–5 credit ratings 78, 83, 87–8 emerging markets 79–81, 85 portfolio diversification 80–82 Ireland 37, 125 Israel 134 Italy 125 Ivory Coast 109–10 Jamaica 136 Japan 99, 102–3, 112, 125 Johannesburg Stock Exchange 4 John Paul II, Pope 26 joint liability 129 Jubilee Debt Campaign 26 Kagame, President Paul 27–8, 148–9 Kanbur, Ravi 54 Kariba dam 15 Kenya and EBA 118 and exports 62 favourable view of China 109 fragile democracy 72 HIV prevalence rates 3 and long-term debt 87–8 money transfer systems 136 population 124 and rampant corruption 48 stake in the economy 152 trade-oriented commodity-driven economy 146 turbulent elections 2008 33 Keynes, John Maynard 11 Kibaki, Mwai 33 Kiva 130 Kurtzman, Joel 51 Lambsdorff, Graf 51 Landes, David 33–4, 147 least-developed countries (LDC) 123 Lensink, R. 136 Lesotho 118 life expectancy 5 Lin Yifu, Justin 153 Live Aid 26 Lumumba, Patrice 14 Lundin, Lukas 98 M-Pesa (money transfer system) 136 Mahajan, Vijay 132 McLiesh, Caralee 101 McNamara, Robert 16, 17 maize scandal (Malawi) 56 Malawi 55–6, 106, 117, 145 Mali 71–2, 94, 109–10, 116 Maren, Michael 60 Markit (data/index firm) 91 Marshall, George C. 12 Marshall Plan 12–13, 35–8 Mauritania 120 Mauritius 34, 89 Maystadt, Philippe 107 Mengistu Haile Mariam 14, 23 Mexico 18, 82, 84, 117, 132, 144, 151 micro-finance 126–32, 140 middle class 57–8 Millennium Challenge Corporation aid campaign (US) 40, 56 Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 45, 96–7 Mkapa, President Benjamin 26 Mobutu Sese Seko, President 14, 22–3, 48, 53, 108 Monterrey Consensus 2002 74 Moody’s Investors Service 83 morality 150 ‘More Aid for the Poorest’ (UK white paper) 16 mosquito net producer (example) 44–5, 114, 122, 130–31 Mozambique 117, 134 Mugabe, Grace 146 Mugabe, Robert 108, 146–7 Mwanawasa, President Levy 53 Mystery of Capital, The (de Soto) 137–8 Na’m, Moisés 107 Namibia 89, 93 ‘negative corruption’ 57; see also corruption Netherlands 63 New York City 151; see also United States New Zealand 121 Nicaragua 151 Nigeria and AGOA duty-free benefits 118 aid from World Bank 107–8 assets looted 48 banking sector 4 beneficiary of FDI 105 and the bond index 92 and corruption 23 cotton revenues 116 favourable view of China 109 humanitarian catastrophe 26 independence 71 and long-term credit ratings 88 Maiduguri money find 137 many tribes 32 natural-gas reserves development 112 rebuilding colonial-era railway 106 remittances 133 ‘No Donor Money, No Loans’ policy 128 North, Douglass 41 Norway 73 ODA (official aid) 25 Odinga, Raila 33 oil 17–18, 48–9, 82, 105–6, 108–9, 120 oil crisis 1979 17–18 Olson, Mancur 41 Olympics 2008 108 Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 115 Oxfam 117 Pakistan 34, 124 Pan-African Infrastructure Development Fund (PAIDF) 95 Paris Club of creditors 108 PEPFAR (AIDS Relief) 7 Peru 151 Peters Projection Map 121 Pew Report 2007 109 Philippines, the 135 PIMCO (bond investment organization) 91 Poland 8–6 Ponzi schemes 130 ‘positive’ corruption 56, 59; see also corruption Private Equity investments 4–5 programme aid 21 Protestantism 31 Przeworski, Adam 43 Raiffeisen, Friedrich 131 Rajan, Raghuram G. 142 Ramalho, Rita 101 Ramesh, Jairam 123 Reagan, Ronald 20, 22 Reichel, R. 46 remittances 133–6 Resource Flows to Africa (UN) 133 Revolutionary United Front (Sierra Leone) 59 Rodrik, Dani 34 Rosenstein-Rodan, Paul 39 Ruiz-Arranz, Marta 136 Russia 84, 87, 112 Rwanda 27, 32, 148 Sachs, Jeffrey 96–7 Sani Abacha, President 48 São Tomé and Principe 106 savings 137–40 Schulze-Delitzsch, Herman 131 Scottish Banks 139–40 Second Conference of Chinese and African Entrepreneurs 114 securitization 96 Sen, Amartya 42 Senegal 109–10 Short, Clare 56 Sierra Leone 59 Singapore 152 Singh, Manmohan 123 small/medium enterprises (SMEs) 125 social capital 58–9 Somalia 60, 118, 133 South Africa abandoning foreign aid 144 and AGOA duty-free benefits 118 and bond issues 89, 92–3 and credit league tables 82 1997 stock market fall 84 not reliant on aid 150 and PAIDF 95 remittances 133 setting an example 78 South Korea 45, 82, 87 Sovereign Wealth Funds 112 Spain 86 Spatafora, N. 133 stabilization programme 20 Standard & Poor’s rating agency 83, 87–8 Standard Bank 106 sterilization 64–5 stock market liquidity 4 Structural Adjustment Facilities 20–21 Subramanian, Arvind 142 subsidies 115–16 Sudan 105–6, 108, 120 sugar production 116–17 Svensson, J. 39, 52 Swaziland 5, 106 Sweden 73 Tanzam Railway 103–4 Tanzania 26, 56, 97, 103–4, 110, 124, 131 taxation 52, 66 Thailand 57 Thatcher, Margaret 20, 67 Togo 94, 116 Tokyo International Conference on African Development 112 Toxopeus, H. 136 trade 17, 19–21, 38–40, 62, 64, 112, 114, 117–24 Transparency International 51, 56, 71 Turkey 93, 112, 117 Uganda aid-fuelled corruption 53 and bonds 65, 97 favourable view of China 109 and HIV–AIDS 71 improved economic growth 101 plunderers and despots 108 population 124 remittances 134 trade-oriented commodity-driven economy 146 UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 102 United Kingdom 108, 120 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 25 United Nations Human Development Report 5 United States and African Growth and Opportunity Act 118 aid history 12–17, 40 bond comparisons 80 diplomatic ties with Zimbabwe 108 Energy Information Administration 103 Food For Peace budget 45 freer trade access for African countries 149 influence compared to China 109–10 and Malawi 56 public’s desire on aid 74 Soft Banks 139 and subsidies 115–16 trading partner status 119 2006 foreign aid 99–100 US Farm Security and Rural Investment Act 2005 115 USSR 14, 19, 24 Venezuela 86 venture capital (VC) 139 Wade, President Abdoulaye 149 Washington Consensus 21–2 Wealth and Poverty of Nations, The (Landes) 33–4, 147 Weber, Max 31 Weder, Beatrice 52 Wen Jibao 104, 114 West African Economic and Monetary Union 88 What makes Democracies endure?


pages: 422 words: 113,525

Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto by Stewart Brand

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agricultural Revolution, back-to-the-land, biofilm, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, business process, Cass Sunstein, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dark matter, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Elon Musk, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, glass ceiling, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, Hernando de Soto, informal economy, interchangeable parts, invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Kevin Kelly, Kibera, land tenure, M-Pesa, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, microbiome, New Urbanism, out of africa, Paul Graham, peak oil, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, stem cell, Stewart Brand, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thomas Malthus, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, working-age population, Y2K

The great monetizer is prepaid SIM (Subscriber Identity Module) cards—a business worth $3 billion across Africa in 2007, run by local entrepreneurs. SIM cards are sold at vegetable stands and the like, along with “scratch cards” that reload the SIM with additional minutes. Some people carry just a card and borrow a phone when needed. Safaricom, in Kenya, has a service called M-Pesa that lets the cell work as an ATM; to send someone money, you text-message the appropriate code to them, and they get cash from a local M-Pesa agent. Cellphone minutes are traded by phone as a cash substitute. Credit card payments are made by cellphone. Remittances from relatives overseas come by cellphone. (Amounting to about $350 billion a year these days, remittances are expected to reach $1 trillion soon; in some developing countries, the remittance total is already higher than foreign aid and foreign investment combined.)

A South African company called Wizzit offers bankless banking via cellphone, with services I wish we had in California. You can open an account in two minutes anytime, anywhere. You can transfer money from your Wizzit account to virtually any other bank account, pay your bills with it, and get cash at any ATM worldwide. Its service centers are multilingual. Children can have accounts. Services similar to those of M-Pesa and Wizzit are offered by GCash in the Philippines. There are cellphones with software for Muslims: Five times a day the cellphone calls the user to prayer and then shuts itself off for twenty minutes. An NGO in the Republic of the Congo provides smart phones “to local teachers, elders and business leaders so that they can report incidents of children being drafted as soldiers.” Some phones include games that teach languages.

McClure, Michael McIntyre, Joan McKibben, Bill McKnight Foundation Madagascar mad cow disease maize Maker Faires malaria Malpai Borderlands Group Malthus, Thomas mammoths Man and Nature (Marsh) Manaus, Brazil Mann, Charles MapEcos March of Unreason, The (Taverne) Margulis, Lynn mariculture Mark, Jason Marsh, George Perkins Martin, John Martin, Paul Martine, George Marvier, Michelle Masai “Masque of Mercy, A” (Frost) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Maximum City (Mehta) Meadows, Donella medicine: genetic engineering and radiation and Medina, Martin Megatons to Megawatts Mehta, Suketu Mendel in the Kitchen (Federoff) Menninger, Rosemary metagenomics methane Mexico genetic engineering and microbes human body and see also bacteria; viruses Microbial Inhabitants of Humans microfinance microreactors Mills, Stephanie milpa field system Molecular Sciences Institute monarch butterflies Monsanto Montefiore, Hugh Montreal Protocol (1989) Mooney, Pat Moore, Patrick More, Max Morton, Oliver Moyers, Bill M-Pesa Mumbai, India Mumford, Lewis Mwanawasa, Levy Mycio, Mary mycotoxin poisoning Myth of Marginality, The (Perlman) Nabhan, Gary Nabokov, Peter Naím, Moisés National Academy of Sciences National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) National Biodiversity Council, Mexican National Commission on Energy Policy National Geographic National Institute of Oceanography, Indian National Institutes of Health (NIH) National Oceanography Centre, British National Research Council Native Americans milpa field system of native-plant movement Natural Capitalism (Hawken and Lovins) natural gas Naturalist (Wilson) Nature Nature (Coates) Nature Conservancy Nature by Design (Higgs) negative feedback Netherlands Neuwirth, Robert Nevada, nuclear waste issue and New Mexico New Science of Metagenomics, The New Scientist New Urbanism New Yorker New York Times New Zealand Next Four Billion, The (Hammond et al.)


pages: 302 words: 73,581

Platform Scale: How an Emerging Business Model Helps Startups Build Large Empires With Minimum Investment by Sangeet Paul Choudary

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3D printing, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, business process, Clayton Christensen, collaborative economy, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, data acquisition, frictionless, game design, hive mind, Internet of things, invisible hand, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, multi-sided market, Network effects, new economy, Paul Graham, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, social graph, social software, software as a service, software is eating the world, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, TaskRabbit, the payments system, too big to fail, transport as a service, two-sided market, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, Wave and Pay

They can initially incentivize the side that is more difficult to attract, much like the Ladies’ Night strategy used by bars and pubs. However, to sustainably encourage high-risk interactions, these platforms must invest in curation, and must signal high-quality supply to the demand side. Solving the chicken-and-egg problem on such platforms requires solving quality control issues rather than gunning for a critical mass of users. 4.6 THE CURIOUS CASE OF NEW PAYMENT MECHANISMS Why M-Pesa Works Finding adoption for a new payment mechanism has always involved solving a chicken-and-egg problem. Ranging from the introduction of new forms of currency in medieval to early modern times, and the adoption of credit cards to the rise of PayPal (as alluded to in many of the strategy discussions in this section) and the recent rage around Bitcoin, new payment systems have regularly offered some of the most complex chicken-and-egg challenges.

Merchants were allowed the option to continue with the old behavior or adopt a new, more efficient one. If CheckFree had insisted that all merchants accept e-payments from the outset, it would not have been able to build a comprehensive portfolio of merchants, which would have prevented it from gaining traction among consumers. EFFICIENT REINTERMEDIATION OF A TRANSACTION Over the last decade, mPesa has established itself as a revolutionary payment mechanism in Kenya. North and East African nations already had a system of money transfer, inherently linked to the Islamic business order, known as Hawala. In the Hawala system, the sender asks a Hawala agent to transfer money to an acquaintance in another location, who then contacts another Hawala agent in the new location to pay the receiver. The sender then pays the sum to the first agent along with a small fee.

MPesa adopted this behavior, without trying to introduce new ones, and made it more efficient by tracking the movement of money. The user-agent relationship remained the same while the agent-agent relationship improved significantly. Instead of logging in transactions in a book and settling them at a later date, the payments system allows the agents to settle money transfers instantly, over the network. While reintermediating an existing payments business, mPesa brings in added efficiency to the transaction, without reinventing the end-user behavior. BACKWARD COMPATIBILITY AS A ROAD TO GRADUAL BEHAVIOR DESIGN Any form of payment has to combat a behavioral problem. Hence, building in some form of ‘backward compatibility’ helps spur adoption because users have the choice to continue with the existing method or transition to a new one. Visa and MasterCard have extensive experience regarding disrupting the payments space.


pages: 437 words: 115,594

The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World by Steven Radelet

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Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, business climate, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, clean water, colonial rule, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, income inequality, income per capita, invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, John Snow's cholera map, Joseph Schumpeter, land reform, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, oil shock, out of africa, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, special economic zone, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, women in the workforce, working poor

By 2008, the company employed seven hundred field workers covering forty-seven hectares and earned $8 million in annual revenue through sales to the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, Italy, France, England, Russia, Chile, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Kuwait.7 Safaricom is East Africa’s largest mobile telecommunications provider, and is widely considered one of the most innovative companies in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2007 Safaricom launched M-Pesa, Africa’s first text-message-based money transfer service, which, since then, has become one of the most sophisticated mobile payment systems in the world. M-Pesa (the M is for “mobile,” and pesa is a Swahili word for “money”) allows users with a national ID card or passport to deposit, withdraw, and transfer money with a mobile device. For a small fee, users can deposit money into an account stored on their cell phones, send balances through short message service (SMS) text messages to other users (including shops and businesses), and redeem deposits for cash. In just five years, more than 17 million M-Pesa accounts were registered in Kenya. There are hundreds of similar examples of growing businesses in dozens of developing countries around the world—in countries that most casual observers would not think of as promising places for economic growth.

., 46 Matela Weavers, 57 maternal mortality rates, 246 Mauritania, 281 Mauritius: aid to, 216 child mortality in, 84 as democracy, 98 growth in, 5, 37, 50, 126, 128 Mbasogo, Teodoro Obiang Nguema, 184 Mearsheimer, John, 290–91 measles, 92, 94, 161 Mecca, Zheng He’s trip to, 152 medical equipment, 20, 165 medicine, 21, 31 megacities, 277 Meiji Restoration, 25–26, 146 Melaka, 136 Menchú Tum, Rigoberta, 18 Mexico, 159, 162 default by, 101–2 democracy strengthening in, 115 demonstrations in, 281 emigration from, 284 growth in, 235 Micklethwait, John, 295 middle class, 20, 240–41 Middle East, 36, 184, 256, 265 conflict in, 146 democracy and, 265 financing in, 259 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 82–83 oil from, 201 trade and, 159 middle-income trap, 261 Milanovic, Branko, 65, 70 Millennium Challenge Corporation, 216 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), 18, 30–31, 95, 217, 242 Millennium Summit, 217 Mills, John Atta, 189 minerals, 22, 152, 205–6 Ming China, 151–53 minimum wage, 165 mining, 278 Ministry of Finance, Gambia, The 190 Mitteri Bridge, 203 Mobarak, Mushfiq, 59 Mobile Alliance for Maternal Action (MAMA), 178 mobile devices, 47 mobile phones, 157, 175–78, 176 Mobilink-UNESCO, 179 Mobutu Sese Seko, 11, 100, 127, 141, 143, 145, 222 Moi, Daniel Arap, 103 Moldova, 6, 7, 36, 143 Mongolia, 108 aid to, 223 coal and iron ore exported by, 53 democracy in, 104, 122, 123, 144 growth in, 6, 7, 45, 128 Moran, Ted, 164–65 Moreira, Sandrina Berthault, 226 Morocco: demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 6, 50 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 poverty in, 36 Morrisson, Christian, 25, 27, 28 mosquitoes, 212 Moyo, Dambisa, 12 Mozal aluminum smelter, 44 Mozambique, 11, 18, 43–45, 159 aid to, 214, 216 aluminum exported by, 53 and democracy, 248 demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 6, 50, 261 inequality in, 67 infrastructure investment in, 216 reforms in, 192 state-owned farms in, 195 war in, 100, 145 M-Pesa, 47 Mubarak, Hosni, 113, 125, 185 Mugabe, Robert, 8, 106, 113, 127, 144, 181, 182, 185, 221 Mumbai, 287 Museveni, Yoweri, 112, 187 Musharraf, Pervez, 113 Mussolini, Benito, 104, 146 Myanmar, 9, 22, 112, 144, 184, 208, 263 child mortality in, 82 cyclones in, 281 health improvements in, 93 Namibia, ix, x, 37 democracy in, 135 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 266 war in, 100, 145 National Academy of Sciences, US, 172 National Constituent Assembly, Tunisia, 124 National Institutes of Health, US, 302 natural capital, 62–63 Natural Resource Governance Institute, 306 Nazarbayev, Nursultan, 106 Nazism, 124, 146, 265, 309 Ndebele tribe, 180 Nepal, 37, 174, 203–4, 208 democracy in, 107, 122, 123 demonstrations in, 281 as landlocked, 202, 205 poverty in, 122 Netherlands, 47 Indonesian colonialism of, 136–37, 138, 139 New Development Bank, 259 New Orleans, La., 201 New York, N.Y., 201, 277 New York Times, 104, 176–77, 270 New Zealand, 25, 78, 167, 202, 231 Nicaragua, 11, 36 democracy in, 104 war in, 100, 145 Niger, 208 agriculture in, 204 democracy in, 124, 263 as landlocked, 202, 205 mobile phones in, 177–78 Nigeria, 115, 159, 243, 245, 287 dictatorship in, 99, 113 health technology in, 175 oil in, 285 per capita wealth in, 62 Nike, 165, 202 Nkomo, Joshua, 181 noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), 268 non-governmental organization (NGOs), 110, 221 Noriega, Manuel, 144 North Africa, 36 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 82–83 trade and, 159 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 156, 162 North Korea, 8, 9, 100, 144, 184, 192, 208, 243 nutrition, 232 Obama, Barack, 297 Obama administration, 297 O’Hanlon, Michael, 299 oil, 44, 53, 62, 67, 114–15, 201, 205, 285 in Equatorial Guinea, 223 in Indonesia, 138, 139 oil crises, 10 open markets, 131 Opium Wars, 153 oral rehydration therapy (ORT), 94, 173, 215 overfishing, 61 overtime regulations, 165 Paarlberg, Rob, 172 Pakistan, 37, 162, 243, 245, 285–86 conflict in, 118, 119 coup in, 113 and democracy, 263 emigration from, 284 factories in, 58 India’s wars with, 141, 145 terrorism in, 287 violence in, 146 Panama, 9 growth in, 50, 128, 238 US invasion of, 144 Panama Canal, 211 Panasonic, 202 Papua New Guineau, 50, 213 Paraguay, 50, 280 Park Chung-hee, 99, 122 patents, 157 Peace Corps, 75, 90, 202 pensions, 38, 241 People Power Revolution, 186 Perkins, Dwight, 235 pertussis, 94, 161 Peru, 159, 185, 285, 287 agriculture in, 56–57 copper exported by, 53 demonstrations in, 281 pharmaceuticals, 20, 165 Philippines, 7, 11, 17, 18, 100, 103, 121, 127, 184, 185, 201, 222, 289, 290, 297 call centers in, 178 corruption in, 264 democracy in, 104, 106, 109, 122, 123, 250, 263 growth in, 242 inequality in, 67 nickel exported by, 53 rice yields in, 215–16 transcribers in, 56 Piketty, Thomas, 68–69 Pinker, Steven, 115 Pinochet, Augusto, 107–8, 122, 141, 143–44, 187 Plano Real (“Real Plan”), 187 Plundered Planet, The (Collier), 292 pneumonia, 73 Poland, 6, 18, 36, 103, 143, 184, 186 protests in, 134 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 polio, 94, 119, 161, 215 Polity IV Project, 107, 109 pollution, 302 Population Bomb, The (Ehrlich), 274 population growth, 21, 80–81, 84, 95, 233, 234, 272, 273–77, 276 Portfolios of the Poor (Collins et al.), 32, 33–34 Port of Cotonou, 216 Portugal, 105, 123, 136 poverty, 94, 294 definitions and terminology of, 26–27 democracy and, 121 as exacerbated by conflicts, 119, 119 as man-made, 180 poverty, extreme, 5, 8, 25, 26, 27–30, 30, 31–35, 36, 41, 42, 118, 231, 232, 240, 241–45, 244, 256, 271 in China, 35, 36, 242 in Indonesia, 136 in South Africa, 183 poverty, reduction of, 3, 4, 5, 8, 17, 21, 27–31, 28, 30, 34–35 in Africa, 12 in China, 201 after global food crisis (2007), 12 ignorance of, 10 lack of attention to, 10 poverty traps, 14–16 pregnancy, 178 press, freedom of, 198–99 Preston, Samuel, 92 Preston curves, 92 Pritchett, Lant, 89, 235, 262 Programa Bolsa Família, 38, 67 progress in developing countries, x, 3–5, 45–53, 46, 49, 229, 237–39, 238 democratization and, see democracy factors for, 16–19 future of, 21–23 as good for West, 19–21 income growth in, 240–41, 240 investment in, 238 and long historical perspective, 13 and microlevel studies, 13–14 middle class emergence in, 240–41 pessimism about, 9–12 possible stalling of, 255–56 possible tripling of incomes in, 277–78 and poverty traps, 14–16 reduction of poverty in, see poverty, reduction of threats to, 291–92 transforming production in, 262–63 property rights, 142, 303 protein, 280 Protestant work ethic, 120–21 Publish What You Pay, 305 Punjab, 178–79 Putin, Vladimir, 224, 255 Radelet, John, 60 Rahman, Ziaur, 271 Rajan, Raghuram, 225, 237 Rajasthan, 33 Ramos, Fidel, 103 Ramos-Horta, José, 184 Ravallion, Martin, 27, 29, 64, 227, 243 Rawlings, Jerry, 188–89 Rebirth of Education, The (Pritchett), 89 recession (1980s), 10, 191 Reebok, 164 religion, freedom of, 198–99 religious bodies, 110 Reserve Bank, Zimbabwe, 181 resource curse, 54, 163, 206 resource demand, 21, 233, 272, 281 resource extraction, 162–63 resources, 275 in Africa, 261 resource wars, 284–86 retail trade, 37, 45 Return of History and the End of Dreams, The (Kagan), 253 Reuveny, Rafael, 272 Rhodes, Cecil, 180 Rhodesia, 43 rice, 139, 215–16 rickshaw drivers, 32–33 Ridley, Matt, 11 rights, 131, 161, 198–99 rinderpest, 215 Rio de Janeiro, 46, 58, 159, 201 river blindness, 214 roads, 169, 233, 235 aid for, 216 in South Africa, 202 Robinson, James, 13, 140, 249 robotics, 261, 301 Rockefeller Foundation, 170 Rodrik, Dani, 261, 263 Roll Back Malaria Partnership, 212 Romania, 36, 50, 134, 143 Romero, Óscar, 100 Roosevelt, Franklin, 100 Roosevelt, Theodore, 169 Ross, Ronald, 211 Royal Economic Society, 226 Russia, 47, 146, 222, 256 democracy in, 113, 263, 264 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 slowing of progress in, 250, 264 Ukraine invaded by, 192, 233 US aid banned by, 224 Rutagumirwa, Laban, 176–77 Rwanda, 144, 159 aid to, 214, 216, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 growth in, 6, 7, 45, 50, 125, 128, 261 individual leadership in, 187 as landlocked, 207 Sachs, Jeffrey, 14–15, 175, 205, 210, 213, 219 Safaricom, 47 salinity, 171, 215 Sall, Macky, 114 Samoa, 202 sanitation, 73, 77, 216, 303 Sargsyan, Vazgen, 113 Saudi Arabia, 115 savings rate, 201 schistosomiasis, 205 Schlesinger, Arthur, Jr., 121 Schumpeter, Joseph, 249 Second Machine Age, The (Brynjolfsson and McAfee), 166, 300 secular stagnation, 257 seed drill, 25 seeds, 171 semiconductors, 20 Sen, Amartya, 19, 123, 127, 128 Sendero Luminoso, 287 Senegal, 7, 37 aid to, 223, 224 corruption in, 114 democracy in, 123, 124, 263 demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 261 inequality in, 67 Senkaku islands, 288 Seoul, 201 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks of, 269 services, 67, 260, 261–62 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 82, 267 Seychelles, 284 Shanghai, 201 Shenzhen, 91 Sherpas, 203 Shikha, 33–34 Shinawatra, Thaksin, 254–55, 264 Shinawatra, Yingluck, 255 Shining Path, 287 shipping, 202 shipping containers, 167–68 shock therapy, 219 shoes, 56, 139, 162, 262 Sierra Leone, 220, 285 democracy in, 104, 107 Ebola in, 82 growth in, 50 health system in, 266 violence in, 146, 206 Silk Road, 206 silks, 152 silver, 152 Simon, Julian, 294 Sin, Jaime, 18, 103 Singapore, 7, 16, 184 benign dictatorship in, 126 and democracy, 122, 248, 250 and globalization, 155 growth in, 125, 139, 147 universities in, 247 Singh, Manmohan, 192 Six-Day War, 285 skills and capabilities, 16, 190–92 slavery, 142, 156, 180, 206 smallpox, 214, 215 Smith, Adam, 151, 156, 200–201 Smith, David, 43 Smith, Marshall, 178–79 SMS text messages, 47, 178 Snow, John, 77 social safety net, 38, 39, 68, 164, 307 Sogolo, Nicéphore, 144 soil, 171, 215 Solow, Robert, 165 Somalia, 8, 9, 99, 119, 213, 243 aid to, 224 power vacuum in, 184 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Somoza García, Anastasio, 100, 127 Song-Taaba Yalgré women’s cooperative, 178 South Africa, 7, 17, 18, 20, 22, 37, 43, 46, 127, 143, 145, 155, 182–83, 207 aid to, 223 apartheid in, 44, 57, 68, 100, 103, 135, 141, 180, 182 banks in, 56 corruption in, 264 economic growth in, 183, 235, 262 future of, 234 HIV in, 174 inequality in, 68 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 life expectancy in, 266 political turmoil in, 57 roads in, 202 universities in, 247 South Asia, 37, 50 Southeast Asia, 5, 12, 167 colonialism in, 140 growth in, 141 Southern Rhodesia, 180 South Jakarta, 286 South Korea, 36, 127, 159, 184, 201, 288, 290 aid to, 214, 216 benign dictatorship in, 126 democracy in, 104, 122, 126, 250 as dictatorship, 99, 122 and globalization, 155 growth in, 7, 16, 29, 71, 125, 139, 147, 236, 262 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 68 lack of resources in, 205 land redistribution in, 68 Soviet Union, x, 50, 126, 133–34, 145, 148, 298, 309 Afghanistan invaded by, 134, 146 collapse of, 16, 81, 103, 131, 135, 142, 156, 250, 251 countries controlled by, 141 dictatorships supported by, 100 malaria in, 210 Spain, 105, 123, 140 speech, freedom of, 198–99 Spence, Michael, 86, 165 Spratly Islands, 289 Sputnik, 147, 250 Sri Lanka, 11, 37 economic problems in, 255 engineers from, 56 malaria in, 211 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Stalin, Joseph, 127 state-owned farms, 195 Stavins, Robert, 297 steam engine, 25, 300 Steinberg, James, 299 Stern, Nicholas, 213, 292 Stiglitz, Joseph, 213, 227 stock exchanges, 241 Strait of Malacca, 201 student associations, 110 Subic Bay Naval Station, 201 Subramanian, Arvind, 225 Sudan, 114, 115, 185, 206, 208, 285 aid to, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 violence in, 285 Suharto, 99, 112, 122, 126, 138–39, 144 Sumatra, 152 Summers, Lawrence, 88, 227, 235, 246, 257 Sustainable Development Goals, 217 Swaziland, life expectancy in, 266 sweatshops, 58 Sweden, 159 Switzerland, 27, 202 Sydney, 201 Syria, 8, 285 aid to, 224 conflict in, 118, 119, 146, 233, 255 in Six-Day War, 285 Taiwan, 29, 153, 201, 289, 290 aid to, 216 benign dictatorship in, 126 democracy in, 122, 126, 250 and globalization, 155 growth in, 125, 139, 147, 236, 262 individual leadership in, 187 lack of resources in, 205 Tajikstan, 205, 208 Tanzania: aid to, 214, 216 and democracy, 248 fruit markets in, 58 growth in, 45, 50, 238, 240, 261 purchasing power in, 27 reforms in, 192 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 tariffs, 44, 102, 155, 167, 193, 263, 305 Tarp, Finn, 226 tax revenues, 241, 247 Taylor, Charles, 99, 145 technology, x, 17, 19, 22, 94–96, 135, 150, 151–79, 183, 200, 206–7, 234, 245, 258, 294, 301 for agriculture, 170–71 for banking, 175, 179 in China, 154–55, 236 for education, 178–79 globalization and, 156, 166 for health, 173–75, 179, 293 terrorism and, 287–88 telecommunications, 158 Terai, 211 terms-of-trade ratio, 54 terrorism, 19, 20, 21, 146, 286–88 tetanus, 94, 161 textiles, 25, 56, 139, 152 Thailand, 9, 22, 36, 253–55, 265 benign dictatorship in, 126 child mortality in, 84 corruption in, 254, 264 and democracy, 248, 253–54, 255, 263 growth in, 139, 147, 262 protests in, 255, 263 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Theroux, Paul, 12 Things Fall Apart (Achebe), 72 think tanks, 110 Third Wave, The (Huntington), 121 Thomas, Brendon, 90–91 Tiananmen Square, 148 Tibet, 203 Tigris, 285 timber, 61, 139, 206, 223, 285 Timbuktu, 206 Timor-Leste, 36, 139, 144, 184, 220 aid to, 223 democracy in, 106, 122 infrastructure investment in, 216 poverty in, 122 tin, 139 Tokyo, 201, 277 totalitarianism, 10–11, 16 tourism, 45 toys, 56, 139 trade, x, 6, 17, 20, 22, 52, 156, 157, 162–63, 193, 203, 204–5, 234, 257, 303 in agriculture, 273 Asian economic miracle and, 170, 201 growth of, 157, 158–59, 160 sea-based, 200–201 shipping containers and, 167–68 trade unions, 110 transportation, 166, 261 Truth and Reconciliation Commission, 182 T-shirts, 159, 164 Tuareg, 265 tuberculosis, 75, 94, 161, 205, 214 Tull, Jethro, 25 Tunisia: democracy in, 7, 106, 124, 255, 263 growth in, 50, 238 Turkey, 36, 127, 285 aid to, 223 authoritarian rule in, 255 demand in, 53 democracy in, 106, 123, 124, 263 future of, 234 growth in, 6, 7, 22, 235, 238 protests in, 263 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 Turkmenistan, 114, 266, 285 Tutu, Desmond, 18, 103, 185 Uganda, 106, 112, 144, 159, 287 aid to, 216 and democracy, 263, 264 growth in, 50 horticulture producers in, 169 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 infrastructure investment in, 216 mobile phones in, 176–77 Ukraine, 143, 192, 233 Ultimate Resource, The (Simon), 294 unemployment benefits, 38, 164 United Fruit Company, 223 United Nations, 79, 212, 217, 258, 275, 298, 309 United Nations’ International Labour Organization, 57 United States, 19, 47, 68, 148, 231, 292, 300 China’s relationship with, 298–99 countries controlled by, 141 coups supported by, 100 democracy criticized in, 126 democracy in, 112, 296 and dictatorships, 139, 222 Iraq invasion by, 8, 118, 124, 146 leadership needed by, 234 natural capital in, 63 Panama invaded by, 144 post–World War II boom in, 262 protection provided by, 289–90 in World War II, 137 universities, 247 urbanization, 4, 22, 233, 268, 276–77, 279 US Agency for International Development (USAID), 95, 170, 171, 216, 308 Uyuni Sal Flat, 205 Uzbekistan, 8, 145, 185, 281, 285 vaccines, 77, 94, 161, 214, 233, 302 Velvet Revolution, 103 Venezuela, 22, 47, 106, 115 and democracy, 248, 263, 264 economic problems in, 255 natural capital in, 63 Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie (VOC), 136–37 Vietnam, 36, 106, 144, 289 aid to, 214, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 growth in, 7, 45, 50, 125, 128, 147, 262 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 life expectancy in, 78 rice yields in, 215–16 textiles from, 56 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Vietnam War, 100, 138, 141, 145, 289 Vincent, Jeffrey, 61 violence, 6, 20, 290 decline in, 4, 115–20, 116, 117, 119, 145–46 poverty deepened by, 119, 119 and poverty traps, 15 over resources, 284–86 Vitamin A deficiency, 173–74 Viviano, Frank, 152 Wade, Abdoulaye, 114, 224 Wałesa, Lech, 18, 103, 143, 149, 184, 186 Walls, Peter, 181 Walmart, 46 Wang Huan, 90–91 war, 5 attention to, 10 and poverty traps, 15 reduction of, 3, 4, 6 watchdog groups, 110 water, 77, 80, 161, 216, 275, 277–80, 307 water conservation, 233 water pollution, 8 water shortages, 22, 73 Watt, James, 25 Wealth and Poverty of Nations, The (Landes), 13 Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 200–201 Weber, Max, 120 West Africa, 8, 10, 22, 205 colonialism in, 140 West Bengal, 31 Western Samoa, 75, 202 What We Know (AAAS report), 281–82 “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down” (Eichengreen et al.), 236 White, Howard, 226 white supremacy, 124 “Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed?”


pages: 315 words: 99,065

The Virgin Way: Everything I Know About Leadership by Richard Branson

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barriers to entry, call centre, carbon footprint, Celtic Tiger, clean water, collective bargaining, Costa Concordia, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, friendly fire, glass ceiling, illegal immigration, index card, inflight wifi, Lao Tzu, low cost carrier, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, Northern Rock, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Tesla Model S, trade route

Another GE programme has produced the natural gas-powered ‘Flex Efficiency’ power plant – the emissions reduction in a year from operating just one of these instead of a coal-powered unit is the equivalent to eliminating the annual CO2 emissions of nearly three million cars in Japan. Taking a stand on something you know to be right can lead to innovation and further business opportunities. Consider the leadership demonstrated by Safaricom and Vodafone in Kenya and Tanzania with ‘M-Pesa’. This first of its kind mobile-phone-based ‘branchless’ banking service allows users with a national ID card or passport to deposit, withdraw and transfer money easily with a mobile device. Within four years of its launch in Kenya alone, M-Pesa had attracted seventeen million subscribers, many of whom had previously had little or no access to financial institutions. The system has provided millions with new opportunities, which is driving economic growth and reducing poverty. Closer to home, a few years ago Virgin Unite and some great partners were instrumental in launching the Carbon War Room, an initiative to identify and scale up market-based solutions to climate change.

No 118 Drake, Francis 293 Drolet, Phil 289 Drucker, Peter 127, 227, 240 Duende 48, 259 Duffell, Ian 182 Durex 55 easyJet 36 Ecomagination initiative 354 see also General Electric Econet Wireless Group 360 Edwards, Jamal 280–1 Eisenhower, Dwight D. 155 Elders, The 37–38, 118, 291 Emerson, Ralph Waldo 202 Enron 102 entrepreneurs 127–31 and established businesses 285–6 female 284–5 government help for 281–3 mentoring of 282, 283, 287–91 and ‘next big thing’ 369 nurturing of, early 276–9 and Pioneers programme 280–2 and social enterprises 360–4 and Virgin StartUp 283 VMP survey of 281–2 see also Branson Centres of Entrepreneurship Ertegun, Ahmet 135 Europe in Summer Café 275 ‘Everybody Better Off’ (EBO) 188, 190 see also Virgin Money ex-prisoners 23–4 Exorcist, The 135 Facebook 131 Fadell, Tony 365, 366–7, 368–70 Fair Labor Standards Act 220 Faris, Ron 111–12, 171, 173 Fast Company 350 Financial Times 21 FirstGroup 335–40 Fiver Challenge 277–8 focus groups, informal 54 Food Basket Farm 275 Fortune 285 Founders Forum For Good 363 Fox, Nick 337 Fox, Robyn 275–6 Friedkin, William 135 Frost, David 255 G-Tech 31 Gabriel, Peter 323 Gadhia, Jayne-Anne 186, 188, 257–8, 285 Gandhi, Mohandas (Mahatma) 2 Gardner, Roy 200 Gates, Bill 195 General Dynamics 285 General Electric 353, 354 General Motors 285 Genesis 323 Giving Pledge 195 Global Entrepreneurship Week 279 Global Impact Challenge 361–3 Godfrey, Brett 72, 141, 178, 236, 243–5 GoGo 312 Goizueta, Roberto 60–1 Golden Bull Award 106 Goldman Sachs 330–1 Goodwin, Jonnie 363 Google 130–1, 137, 138, 198–9, 288, 312 April Fool stunts by 268–9 Global Impact Challenge of 361–3 and Nest 369 and Project Oxygen 214 Google Maps 310–11 Griffiths, Martin 338 Hail Merry Seasoned Nut Blend 286 Haji-Ioannou, Stelios 36–7 Happiness Advantage, The (Achor) 259–60 Harvard Business Review 322 Hastings, Reed 56, 57–8 Helen (RB’s assistant) 338 Hemingway, Ernest 86, 104 Herwald, Kurt 231 hiring: bartender who became airport manager 250–1 candidates from straitjacketed environment 210–12 and capability vs expertise 203–4 and character 202–3 cleaner who became station manager 249–50 and CV 203 and first impressions 204–5 as number-one priority 197–200 and promoting from within 205–6, 212 and retaining staff 213–14 HIV 55 HMV 181 Hoare, David 237–8 Hoberman, Brent 363 Holly Baking Company’s Chocolate Chip Cookies 286 home working 221–3 Hope, Allie 62–3 Horton, Willie 301 Howard, Anthony 90–1 HP 312 Huffington, Arianna 357, 358, 359 Huffington Post 357, 359 Hyundai 174–5 I Love Lucy 214 IBM 285 Immelt, Jeffrey 354 ‘Insights into Organization’ 97 Intel 288 iPad 149 iPhone 149, 310, 366, 371 iPod 127, 262, 366, 368, 371 Isaacson, Walter 323 iTunes 126, 169, 182, 262, 315 Jagger, Mick 97 JBL 311–12 jetBlue 222 Jobs 365 Jobs, Steve 3, 68, 126, 130, 137, 148, 191, 262, 288, 365–8, 370 and collaboration 324 on creativity 323–4 movie about 365–6 Jones, Kelly 98 Jones, Kenton ‘Keny’ 208–9 Jones, Leesa 208–9 Junior Achievement (JA) 277, 278 Just In Time (JIT) 327 Kasbah Kamadot 209 Keep it simple, stupid (KISS) 80, 98–9 Kelleher, Herb 229, 231–4, 239 Keller, Helen 180 Kennedy, John F. 32 Kerby, Chuck 350 Kia 174–5 Kiam, Victor 64 King, Lord 42, 301 KISS (Keep it simple, stupid) 80, 98–9 Kodak 124–6 Krave Turkey Jerky 286 Kreeger, Craig 76–7 Laker Airways 200, 297–300 Laker, Freddie 200, 233, 287, 289, 297–300, 305–6 Lao Tzu 117 le Carré, John 5, 30 leadership: and accessibility 47–51 akin to bringing up children 26–7 and culture 228–9; see also culture and decisions, see decisions defined and discussed 117–30 and delegation 124, 195, 198, 199–200 and entrepreneurs 127–31 Lao Tzu’s take on 117 listening as ‘bum rap’ in 31 and ‘next big thing’ 369 and oratory 31–2 and passion, see passion and simplicity 79 and today’s teenagers 276 unexpected provenance of 13 Virgin research to define 43–7, 191 and women 284–5 Leal, Raul 63–4 Leica 125, 311 Lennon, John 5 Leonardo da Vinci 178–9 Liberty Global 162 Light Brigade, Charge of 295 light bulbs, low-energy 349–53 listening: and accessibility 47–51 and anagrams 30 interrupting as opposed to 39–40 and leadership, Virgin companies’ views on 45–6 merely hearing is not 33 notable practitioners of 37–8 and note-taking 5, 30–1, 33–7 and reading between the lines 41–2 and unspoken word 40–1 Lockheed Martin 285, 311 London Marathon 322 Lone Ranger 293 M-Pesa 354 McCall, Patrick 337 McCallum, Gordon 160, 161 McCue, Mike 365 McDonald’s 147 Machel, Graça 117 McKinsey & Co. 96–7 McLaughlin, Patrick 338, 339–40 Magnuss Ltd 355 Malaysia Airlines 342–3 Manchester United FC 258 Mandela, Nelson 37–8 Markkula, Mike 288 Masiyiwa, Strive 360 Masson, Margaret 344 Mates condoms 56 Maxwell, Gavin 85 Mayer, Marissa 107, 222, 285 biography of 307 mentoring 282, 283, 287–91 Microsoft 310, 315 mission statements 101–14 B Team’s 358 brevity of 105–6 Bristol-Myers’s 106–7 Enron’s 102 and Golden Bull Award 106 Virgin Active’s 108 Yahoo!’


pages: 293 words: 81,183

Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Make a Difference by William MacAskill

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barriers to entry, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Cal Newport, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, effective altruism, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, follow your passion, food miles, immigration reform, income inequality, index fund, Isaac Newton, job automation, job satisfaction, labour mobility, Lean Startup, M-Pesa, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Nate Silver, Peter Singer: altruism, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, randomized controlled trial, self-driving car, Skype, Stanislav Petrov, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, universal basic income, women in the workforce

DMI currently operates in Burkina Faso, and has plans to run similar programs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Cameroon, and the Ivory Coast. The third organization is GiveDirectly. Its program is simple: it transfers money from donors directly to some of the poorest people in Kenya and Uganda who are then free to use that money however they wish. Using what is called the M-Pesa system, cell phones are used as makeshift bank accounts, thereby enabling an easy transfer of money from foreign bank accounts to the poor. GiveDirectly uses satellite images to find households with thatched roofs (a strong indicator of poverty, compared to iron roofs) and then contacts those households to discuss the program. If the household is willing, GiveDirectly transfers them a lump sum of $1,000, which is equal to a little more than one year’s total income for that household.

., 130 Krugman, Paul, 131 Kuyichi, 132 Laos, 130 law of diminishing returns, 58–61, 62–66 Lean Startup movement, 159 legal profession as career choice, 164 Levitt, Steven, 84–86 Lewis, Greg and earning to give, 74–78 on impact of medicine, 62–66, 74–75, 76 medical ambitions of, 55, 56 life expectancies, 19, 45 Lipeyah, Paul, 6–7 literacy, 103–4 lives saved by doctors, 63–66, 75 Living Goods, 125–26, 127 lower-bound reasoning, 91 low-probablity events, 83–84 malaria and bed nets, 52, 53, 112, 113–14, 117 deaths from, 46–47, 60 and expected values, 81–82 funding dedicated to, 61–62 and program implementation, 117 See also Against Malaria Foundation marginal utility, 57–58 marketing careers, 165, 167 Massachusetts, 87 Mather, Rob, 157, 177 Matthews, Dylan, 174 measles, 121 meat and meat consumption, 136, 141–43 media coverage of disasters and causes, 59–60 medicine as career choice, 164 mega-charities, 120 Mercy for Animals, 143, 175, 190 Mexico, 133, 137 microcredit/microloans, 114–15 micromorts, 82–83 migrants, 187–89 Miliband, Ed, 90 missions of charities, 109, 110 Monbiot, George, 137–38, 140 Montagnier, Luc, 171 Montenegro, Claudio, 188 monthly donations, 197 moral licensing, 144–46 motivation, altruistic, 166–67 Moyo, Dambisa, 43, 44, 45, 46, 50 Mozambique, 3, 104, 123 M-Pesa system, 105 Mulder, Frederick, 177 National Area Health Education Center Organization, 63 National Mobilization Against Sweatshops, 129 natural disasters, 80 natural gas, 136 neglectedness of problems/causes, 181, 183 neglected tropical diseases, 183 Net Impact, 55 New Hampshire, 86 Niehaus, Paul, 169 Niemi, Niina, 134 Nigeria, 188 Nike, 129 Noda, Yoshihiko, 80 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), 77 Nordhaus, William, 170 normal distributions in statistics, 47–48, 48 Norwood, Bailey, 141–42 No Sweat Apparel, 129 Nothing But Nets, 113–14 Nuclear Threat Initiative, 194 Obama, Barack, 179 objections to charitable giving, 40–41 Occupy Wall Street, 15 offsetting greenhouse gases emissions, 137–40 One Foundation, 3 100x Multiplier, 15–25, 62, 66 “the 1 percent,” 15–18 One Water, 3 Orbinski, James, 29–34 Ord, Toby, 12 outsourcing of jobs, 165 overhead costs of charities, 106 Oxfam, 120 Parliament (MP), value of career in, 90–94 passion and career choices, 149–53, 154 Penna, Robert M., 40 People Tree, 132 personal fit with problems/causes, 41–43, 148–55, 181 Peru, 191 Pew Charitable Trusts, 187 pigs and pork, 141–42, 143 Piketty, Thomas, 15 plastic bags, 136 PlayPumps, 1–5, 9–10, 47 PlayPumps International, 2–3, 11 polio, 121 political careers, 89–94, 174 political causes, 182 political rally participation, 88 poor countries and career choices, 76–78 cost effectiveness of programs in, 62, 121 and fair-trade products, 133 and law of diminishing returns, 61 lives saved by doctors in, 66 and sweatshop laborers, 131–32 presidential election of 2008, 85 preventable diseases, deaths from, 46–47, 60 Pritchett, Lant, 188 programming skills, 161, 164 Public Broadcasting System (PBS), 5 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) concept of, 34–39 and cost-effectiveness evaluations, 112 and evidence behind claims of programs, 116–17 graphs illustrating, 35, 36 and lives saved by doctors, 63, 65 Quirk, Lincoln, 170 Quoidbach, Jordi, 150–51 Rath, Pim Srey, 130 regression to the mean, 73–74 Reid, Harry, 179 research, funding spent on, 110 research careers, 171–73 rich countries cost effectiveness for programs in, 62 and easily preventable diseases, 62 lives saved by doctors in, 66 Ries, Eric, 159 Round-about Water Solutions, 5 Rumsfeld, Donald, 44 Rwandan genocide, 29–32 Sachs, Jeffrey, 131 sacrifices in altruism, 12 sales careers, 165, 167 Salvation Army, 32–33 scale of problems/causes, 181 Scared Straight program, 70–74, 114 Schindler’s List (1993), 196–97 Schistosomiasis Control Initiative founder of, 157 GiveWell’s endorsement of, 124–25, 127, 197 and neglected tropical diseases, 183 scientific research careers, 171–73 Shapiro, Arnold, 70–71 Silver, Nate, 85 Singapore, 131 SKAT, 11 Skoll Global Threats Fund, 99 slavery, 94–95 smallpox, eradication of, 45–46, 47, 67–69, 121 social cost of greenhouse gas emissions, 97–98 software engineering, 164 Solar Radiation Management Governance Initiative, 193 Somalia, 68 South Africa, 2, 3 South Korea, 131 Soviet Union, 68–69 Spain, 136 Stern Review, 190–91 Stocker, Thomas F., 179 strokes, 35 Stuiver, Ronnie, 1 sub-Saharan Africa health education in, 104 life expectancy in, 45 and Against Malaria Foundation, 125 and Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, 124 supply and demand, law of, 87–88 Swaziland, 3 SweatFree Communities, 129 sweatshops, 128–32 alternatives to, 132 conditions in, 129, 130 desirability of jobs in, 130–31 economic pressures of, 130 and extreme poverty, 130, 132 Swiss Resource Centre and Consultancies for Development (SKAT), 3–4 Taiwan, 131 Taleb, Nassim, 98 Teach for America, 55 Tea Party rallies, 89 technology oriented careers, 163, 164 tenure, 153 testing effectiveness of programs, 74 textbooks, 7, 103–4, 108–9 Thailand, 130 Theroux, Louis, 78 thinking at the margin, 57 Time magazine, 3 tractability of problems/causes, 181, 182–83 trade professions, 165 travel, carbon foot print from, 136, 137–38 Trigg, Jason, 166 tsunamis, 58, 79 tuberculosis, 60 Tversky, Amos, 173 Uganda and fair-trade products, 134 and GiveDirectly, 105, 122 and Living Goods, 125 Under the Knife (2007), 78 UNICEF, 3–4, 11, 120, 132 United Kingdom affluence of, 17 homicide rate in, 185 medical students in, 55 political careers in, 174 and social cost of greenhouse gas emissions, 97 value of political careers in, 90–94 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, 191 United States benefits from medicine in, 63, 65 career choices in, 164 and climate change, 191 cost effectiveness for programs in, 62 and factory farms, 190 and fair-trade products, 134 greenhouse gases of, 135 homicide rate in, 185 income and income inequality in, 15–16, 17, 22 and Industrial Revolution, 131 infrastructure costs in, 46 lives saved by doctors in, 75 medical students in, 55 poverty in, 18, 184 and presidential election of 2008, 85 and quality of goods, 20 and social cost of greenhouse gas emissions, 97 social security spending of, 44 and sweatshop laborers, 131–32 and value of charitable giving, 22 voting in, 84–87 United Students Against Sweatshops, 129 United Way, 33–34 University of Chicago Crime Lab, 187 University of Oxford Geoengineering Programme, 193 US Department of Labor, 132 US Department of Transportation, 46 US Environmental Protection Agency, 46 US Food and Drug Administration, 46 vaccination programs, 118 Valkila, Joni, 134 vegetarianism, 87–88, 141–43, 175 Virginia, 86 volunteering, 175–76 voting, expected value of, 84–87 Washington State Institute for Public Policy, 72 water, 1–5, 56–57 Watts, Alan, 149–50 Wave, 170–71 well-being, subjective assessments of, 21, 21–23, 39–40 Well-Being-Adjusted Life Years (WALYs), 39–40 What If Money Was No Object (YouTube video), 149 The White Man’s Burden (Easterly), 43 Whittlestone, Jess, 168 Wikipedia, 175 Wilson, Timothy, 150–51 Winfrey, Oprah, 55 World Bank, 60, 134 World Bank Development Marketplace Award, 2 World Health Organization (WHO), 60, 69 WorldVision, 120 World War II, 98 Wozniak, Steve, 152 Yunus, Muhammad, 114 Zambia, 3 Zhdanov, Viktor, 68–69 Zimbabwe Bush Pump, 4 Looking for more?


pages: 411 words: 114,717

Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles by Ruchir Sharma

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3D printing, affirmative action, Albert Einstein, American energy revolution, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, BRICs, British Empire, business climate, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, cloud computing, collective bargaining, colonial rule, corporate governance, crony capitalism, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, eurozone crisis, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, housing crisis, income inequality, indoor plumbing, inflation targeting, informal economy, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, labour market flexibility, land reform, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, market bubble, megacity, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, quantitative easing, reserve currency, Robert Gordon, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, software is eating the world, sovereign wealth fund, The Great Moderation, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, working-age population

Two decades behind China along comes Africa, leaping from no telecommunications straight into the age of advanced digital services, delivered on mobile devices. To cite just one example, consider the success of mobile banking, which offers a way for people on the low end of the economic scale to leap into the world of modern finance without having to build a single bank. With an M-Pesa “electronic wallet” a Kenyan can use his cell phone to pay for a ride in a taxicab, a service that is not available in the West. Since 2007 the number of Kenyans who keep money in a bank has risen from one in five to one in two, thanks in large part to M-Pesa. The increase in bank savings could serve as a new pool of money to finance the building of roads and other critical infrastructure, and its potential to grow is huge. Even in better-developed South Africa, the opportunity is substantial because while there are only twenty million South Africans with bank accounts, there are forty million with mobile phones.

., 129 Kenya, 191, 205, 209 Keynes, John Maynard, 109 KGB, 86 Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 87 Kia, 161, 162–63 kidnappings, 78–79, 190–91 Kim Jong Il, 170 Kinshasa, 205 Kirchner, Cristina, 89 Kirchner, Nestor, 89 Klaus, Vaclav, 108 Koç family, 125 “Korea Discount,” 167–69 “Korean Wave,” 122, 167 KOSPI index, 70, 153, 155, 156, 164, 165 K-pop, 122, 154, 167 Kuala Lumpur, 147, 148, 151 Kumar, Nitish, 50–51 Kuwait, 187–88, 214, 216, 218, 219 Kuznets curve, 76 labor market, 7, 17, 21–23, 27, 32, 38, 47, 55, 64, 65, 76, 77, 102, 103, 104, 164, 169–70, 174–75, 179, 180–81, 199, 203–4, 246–47 Lada, 86 Lafarge, 213 Lagos, 211, 212, 213 landlines, 207 land-use laws, 25, 168 Laos, 188 laptop computers, 158, 164 large numbers, law of, 7 Last Train Home, The, 22–23 Latin America, viii, 40–41, 42, 73–75, 81, 89, 246 see also specific countries Latvia, 101 Lavoisier, Antoine, 235–36 law, rule of, x, 50–51, 89, 96, 127, 181–82 lead, 19 Leblon neighborhood, 61 Lee Kwan Yew, 118, 148, 193 Lehman Brothers, 164 Le Thanh Hai, 203 Lewis, Arthur, 21 “Lewis turning point,” 21 LG, 158, 163 “Liberation Tigers” of Tamil Eelam, 192–93, 197 Liberty, 178 Libya, 127, 216 Limpopo River, 171 Linux, 238 liquidity, 9, 228–30 liquor stores, 126 literacy rate, 52 Lithuania, 101, 109 Lixin Fan, 22–23 loans, personal, 12, 24, 116, 125, 150 long-run forecasting, 1–14 L’Oréal, 31 Louis Vuitton, 31 Lugano, 40 Lula da Silva, Inácio, 59, 61, 66, 70, 210, 226, 248 luxury goods, vii–viii, 12, 25, 31, 236 Macao, 201 macroeconomics, 7–8, 13, 66, 67, 145–46, 188 “macromania,” 7–8, 188 Made in America, Again, 246–47 “made in” label, 155, 246–47 Madhya Pradesh, 52 maglev (magnetic levitation) trains, 15–16, 231 Magnit, 90–91 Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), 41–42 Malaysia, 146–52 in Asian financial crisis, 18, 131–32, 146–47, 149–50 banking in, 146, 149–50, 151, 252 currency of (ringgit), 131, 146–47, 149 economic planning in, 150–52, 161 economy of, 18, 118, 150–52, 161, 235 electronics industry of, 147–48 as emerging market, 10, 45, 118, 149, 161, 235 foreign investment in, 146–50, 151 foreign trade of, 6, 144, 147, 157 GDP of, 145, 147, 149 government of, 146, 148–52 growth rate of, 9, 147–48, 149, 244 income levels of, 138, 148 manufacturing sector in, 147–48, 150 political situation in, 146–49 Singapore compared with, 118 stock market of, 131, 235 Thailand compared with, 144, 145, 147 wealth of, 148 Mali, 208 Malta, 30, 106 Malthus, Thomas, 225, 231–32 Mandela, Nelson, 171, 172, 176 Manila, 130, 138, 139, 140, 141 Manuel, Trevor, 176 manufacturing sector, 17–18, 22–23, 28, 43, 54, 75, 80, 88–89, 90, 110, 124, 132, 147–48, 150, 155, 157, 158–59, 160, 161–66, 168, 170, 180, 221, 230, 235, 246–47, 265 Maoism, 37, 47 Mao Zedong, 21, 27, 29 Marcos, Ferdinand, 138, 139, 210 markets: black, 13–14, 96, 126 capital, 69, 70–71; see also capital flows commodity, 12, 13–14, 223–39 currency, 4, 9, 13, 28 domestic, 36, 43, 183 emerging, vii–x, 2–11, 37–38, 47, 64, 94, 185–91, 198–99, 242–49, 254–55, 259–62 free, x, 8–9, 96, 104 frontier, 89, 185–91, 213, 261–62 housing, 5–6, 16, 18, 24–25, 28–29, 31, 32, 61, 92, 103–4 labor, 7, 17, 21–23, 27, 32, 38, 47, 55, 64, 65, 76, 77, 102, 103, 104, 164, 169–70, 174–75, 179, 180–81, 199, 203–4, 246–47 see also stock markets Mato Grosso, 232 Mayer-Serra, Carlos Elizondo, 78 MBAs, 225 Mbeki, Thabo, 176, 206 Medellín drug cartel, 79 Medvedev, Dmitry, 95–96 Mercedes-Benz, 86, 144 Merkel, Angela, 108 Mexican peso crisis, 4, 9 Mexico, 73–82 antitrust laws in, 81–82 banking in, 81, 82 billionaires in, 45, 47, 71, 78–80 Brazil compared with, 71, 75 China compared with, 80, 82 consumer prices in, 75–76 corruption in, 76–77 currency of (peso), 4, 9, 73, 80, 131 drug cartels in, 79–80 economy of, 4, 12, 28, 73–82, 178, 183 emigration from, 79, 82 foreign exports of, 6, 75, 80, 158 GDP of, 76, 77, 81 government of, 76–78 growth rate of, 73–82, 244 income levels of, 8, 73–75, 76, 113 labor unions in, 76, 77 national debt of, 76, 80–81 nationalization in, 77–78 oil industry of, 75, 77–78, 82 oligopolies in, 73, 75, 76–82, 178 parliament of, 76–77 political situation in, 76–78, 82 population of, 73 stock market of, 73, 75, 76, 81 taxation in, 76 U.S. compared with, 75, 79, 80 Mexico City, 75 micromanagement, 151 middle class, 10, 19–20, 33, 42–43, 52–56, 182, 211, 236 Middle East, 38, 65, 68, 113, 116, 122, 123, 125, 166, 170, 189, 195, 214–21, 234, 246 middle-income barrier, 19–20, 144–45 middle-income deceleration, 20 Miller, Arthur, 223 minimum wage, 29, 63, 126, 137 mining industry, 44, 93, 154, 175, 176, 178–80 Miracle Year (2003), 3–6 misery index, 248–49 Mittal, Sunil Bharti, 204–5, 206, 209 mobile phones, 53, 86, 204–5, 207–8, 212, 237 Mohammed, Mahathir, 146–47, 148, 151 Moi, Daniel arap, 205 monetization, 225 Money Game, The (Smith), 234 Mongolia, 191 monopolies, 13, 73, 75–76, 178–79 Monroe, Marilyn, 129 Monte Carlo, 94 “morphic resonance,” 185 mortgage-backed securities, 5 mortgages, 5, 92, 105–6 Moscow, 12, 83, 84, 90, 91, 96, 136, 137, 232 mosques, 111 Mou Qizhong, 46 Mozambique, 184, 194–95, 198, 206 M-Pesa, 208 MTN, 212–13 Mubarak, Gamal, 218 Mubarak, Hosni, 92, 127, 218 Mugabe, Robert, 176, 181 Multimedia Supercorridor, 151 multinational corporations, 53, 73, 75, 81, 151, 158–59, 160, 184, 230 Mumbai, 43, 44, 79, 214, 244 Murder 2, 167 Murphy’s law, 11 Muslim Brotherhood, 127 Mutual, 178 mutual funds, 178–79 Myanmar, 30 Myspace, 41 Naipaul, V. S., 50 Najaf, 122 Namibia, 173, 184 Nanjing, 31 National Action Party, 77 “national car,” 161 National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, 27–28 national income streams, 16–17 Nationalist Party, 174–75 nationalization, 77–78, 176, 177 national key economic areas (NKEAs), 151 natural resources, 3, 10, 19, 51–52, 59, 61, 63, 67–68, 69, 127, 133–34, 159, 176, 220, 223–39 Naxalites, 46 Nazif, Ahmed, ix Nellore, 52 nepotism, 47 Netflix, 239 Netherlands, 179, 220 “new apartheid,” 181 new economic model (NEM), 151 “new economy,” 225–26 “new normal,” 6, 226 “new paradigms,” 225–26 New Science of Life, A (Sheldrake), 185 Newsweek International, 42 New Zealand, 249 nickel, 133, 141 Niger Delta, 210, 211 Nigeria, 209–14 Christians vs.


pages: 700 words: 201,953

The Social Life of Money by Nigel Dodd

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accounting loophole / creative accounting, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, blockchain, borderless world, Bretton Woods, BRICs, capital controls, cashless society, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, computer age, conceptual framework, credit crunch, cross-subsidies, David Graeber, debt deflation, dematerialisation, disintermediation, eurozone crisis, fiat currency, financial innovation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial repression, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, German hyperinflation, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Hyman Minsky, illegal immigration, informal economy, interest rate swap, Isaac Newton, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kula ring, laissez-faire capitalism, land reform, late capitalism, liquidity trap, litecoin, London Interbank Offered Rate, M-Pesa, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, mental accounting, microcredit, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage debt, new economy, Nixon shock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, paradox of thrift, payday loans, Peace of Westphalia, peer-to-peer lending, Ponzi scheme, post scarcity, postnationalism / post nation state, predatory finance, price mechanism, price stability, quantitative easing, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, remote working, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Satoshi Nakamoto, Scientific racism, seigniorage, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade liberalization, transaction costs, Wave and Pay, WikiLeaks, Wolfgang Streeck, yield curve, zero-coupon bond

It is therefore worth pausing to ask why there has been such an explosion of payment services in recent years, before discussing what it might mean for the future of money. Google Wallet and Wave and Pay are forms of “mobile money” that have been developing alongside the growth of alternative monies. Mobile monies appeal to users because they remove from the act of payment the inconveniences and impositions associated with traditional banking. Some forms of mobile money do this explicitly. Take the M-Pesa system, which mainly operates in Kenya, Tanzania, Afghanistan, South Africa, and India. M-Pesa48 uses mobile phones to transfer money, advertising itself as a cheap and easy way to move money without needing banks (or, in many cases, not visiting bank branches). Other forms of mobile money, such as Square Wallet, still use banks but eliminate most of the aggravation that usually come with banks.49 With Square, once a merchant and a customer have both registered for the service, the merchant needs only the customer’s name; the customer’s photograph appears on the merchant’s terminal while the system manages the details, sending the customer a text message to confirm.

The classic expression of such interests, of course, is seigniorage, which used to be the difference between the value of money and what it cost to produce. Seigniorage was classically seen as a tax—economists called it an inflation tax—because it was usually the state (via its central bank) that produced the notes and coins in question. Today, however, the “tax” on the everyday use of money is paid not to the state but to the providers of the payment networks. These are the very providers—PayPal, Square, Google, and M-Pesa—whose primary attraction lies in the fact that they are not government. This phenomenon is the new, private, seigniorage.50 The expansion of mobile money has proceeded hand in hand with the development of increasingly sophisticated ways for private corporations to “mine value in the act of payment” (Maurer 2011: 10). The payment services “industry” is still dominated by the credit card companies, but they are increasingly being joined by social networking platforms and mobile phone companies, all vying for the 1 to 4 percent slice that gets extracted from virtually every payment made.

See also complementary currency; cool money; counterfeit money; credit money; debt-free money; digital money; ecological money; endogenous money; floating money; helicopter money; high-powered money; LETS; local currency; perfect money; postnational money; private money; sacred money; savage money; state fiat money; stateless money; territorial money money of account, 8, 51, 54, 104, 109–10, 219n, 292, 297; in the Eurozone, 258–59 money manager capitalism, 120 money supply, 121, 122n, 211, 318, 319–20, 349n Monnerot, Jules, 172n monopoly, 59, 60 monopoly capitalism, 191, 197, 209 Montandon, George, 283 Moore, Basil, 106n19 Moore, Demi, 203 Moore, Heidi, 386 Moore, John H, 92n M-Pesa, 377–78 More, Thomas, 14, 313, 339 Morgan Stanley, 114, 221 Morrill, Calvin, 292 Morris, William, 327n Mosaic law, 26 Moses, 332–33 Mt. Gox, 366, 367, 369 multitude, and money, 77, 268; and finance, 248; in Hardt and Negri, 238, 239, 246, 247–49, 351; versus society, 293; in Spinoza, 77 Mundell, Robert, 253 Munn, Nancy, 215 mutualism, 353, 354, 357, 360, 363, 372, 382 mutuality, 101 myth, 16–17, 47 Nakamoto, Satoshi, 364, 381, 382 Namecoin, 370n40 Nantes, 165 narrow banking, 133 nationalism, 240 nation-state, 8 natural money, 361 nature, 155, 185, 188, 189, 232, 311, 328; in Bashō, 331; in Bataille, 196; in Baudrillard, 196; in Benjamin, 331; versus civilization, 283; in Fromm, 334–35, 337; in Goethe, 331; immortality of, 141; irrationality of, 77n; in Marx, 58; in Nietzsche, 141, 154; in Polanyi, 280, 311; in Proudhon, 354; and sacrifice, 168; state of, 223; in Tennyson, 331 negative equity, 132 Negri, Antonio, 13, 77, 237–51, 293; on bare life, 249–50; on biopower, 239–40; on the commons, 249, 380; Commonwealth, 237, 245, 250; on desire, 241; Empire, 237, 250; on empire, 238–41, 260, 263; on finance, 249–50; on globalization, 237–38; on imperialism, 237–38; on money, 241–42, 244, 245–46, 250–1; on money and community, 250; Multitude, 237; on the multitude, 238, 239, 246, 247–49, 351; on reterritorialization, 241; on the society of control, 239–40; on sovereignty, 238, 239, 244, 245, 247; Time for Revolution, 266; on time, 251 neochartalism, 103, 106–11, 1, 12n, 254, 359.


pages: 296 words: 87,299

Portfolios of the poor: how the world's poor live on $2 a day by Daryl Collins, Jonathan Morduch, Stuart Rutherford

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Cass Sunstein, clean water, failed state, financial innovation, financial intermediation, income per capita, informal economy, job automation, M-Pesa, mental accounting, microcredit, moral hazard, profit motive, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, transaction costs

But Kenya, with a much sparser population, also boasts remarkable examples of convenient and flexible services. Equity Bank has had success with “mobile banking,” using four-wheel drive vehicles to reach remote villages on a weekly basis to offer a range of lowcost savings and loan products. This allowed Equity to quickly build a big clientele among poor and middle-income Kenyans. Examples of providers exploiting the potential of wireless devices can also be found in Africa: M-Pesa of Kenya was one of the first to roll out services featuring money transfers over mobile phones, though it was beaten to it by providers in the Philippines. The potential of these advances is now well recognized by the wider financial services industry. Not everything that is new will meet its promise, but microfinance has now entered a period of fast evolution in which, sooner or later, suppliers are likely to figure out 183 CHAPTER SEVEN how best to serve the real financial needs of poor households eager for good-quality financial services.

See also behavioral economics methodology: diary method, strengths and weaknesses of, 205, 208–10; financial diaries (see financial diaries); gifts to participating households, 261– 62n.8; the interviews, 188–89, 197, 203–5; mixing qualitative and quantitative, 186–87; the samples, 14–15, 189–203, 262n.9; wealth ranking, 190 Mgidlana, Lwandle, 261n.6 microfinance: competition in local markets among providers of, 249n.17; credit, going beyond, 23–26; “credit-life” insurance in Bangladesh, 75; emergency loans, 94, 107; flexibility as an issue for, 63; foreign investment in, 260n.3; the future of, 171–73, 175–77, 180; Grameen Bank (see Grameen Bank); the Grameen II diaries, information gleaned from, 159–60; insurers in India, premium collection for, 72; interest rates of, 132–36, 144–45 (see also prices); loan repayment, gender and, 248n.7; origins and initial success of, 156–57; partnerships with formal insurance companies, formation of, 92, 252n.10; payment schedules, size and flexibility of, 57–60, 92; payment schedules and cash flows, mismatches between, 125– 28; post-1990s resurgence in, 154–55; price of borrowing, impact on, 152; “relationship” banking and, 250n.9; reliability of, 27; remaining shortcomings of, 171–73; saving and borrowing for short-term household needs, example of, 47–48; supply-side development of, 183–84; up-front fees charged on 278 INDEX loans, 143–44; use of loans, insights from Grameen II diaries regarding, 164–67; women as target of, concerns regarding, 172 (see also women) micro health insurance schemes, 92 Millenium Development Goals, 5–7, 247n.5 moneyguarding, 51, 163, 205, 208 moneylenders: mahajan and mashonisa, 141, 208; as members of the community, 141–44; from outside the community, 257–58n.9. See also loans money-sharing arrangements, 51–52 Mongake, Abel, 261n.6 Montgomery, Heather, 257n.4 moral hazard, 88–89 Morduch, Jonathan, 187, 248n.7, 248n.12, 249n.13, 249n.18, 250n.1, 250n.3, 251– 52n.5, 251n.3, 251n.13, 253n.22, 255n.10, 255n.15, 256–57nn.1–4, 258n.15, 260n.7, 263n.15 Mosley, Paul, 261n.3 M-Pesa (Kenya), 183 Mullainathan, Sendhil, 255n.11 Muravha, Tshifhiwa, 261n.6 Mutesasira, Leonard, 260n.6 Mzansi account, 24 negative net worth, rarity of, 10 Nepal, 254n.7 net present value (NPV), 136, 138 Nicaragua, 249n.17 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), microfinance by, 155–56 NPV. See net present value “obligatory” lending and borrowing, 50–51 O’Donahue, Ted, 255n.13 Pakistan, 120 Participatory Wealth Ranking (PWR) manual, 262n.10 Patole, Meenal, 252nn.6–7, 257n.7, 261n.5 Pauly, Mark, 253n.22 Peru, 249n.17 Philippines, the, 120, 123, 183, 249n.17, 256n.22 poor, the: assumptions that can mislead regarding, 12–13, 17; commonalties across households, 15–17, 31, 46–47, 49, 100–1; definition of, 1, 5, 7, 190, 195–97; festivals, spending on, 254n.7; financial and nonfinancial challenges facing, 174–75, 184; as a market, 62; number of, 1; opportunities that could assist, 177–80 portfolios: complexity of, reasons for, 19–20; diversification of, prices and, 151–53; examples of, 34, 211–41; extant knowledge of, 14; of funeral coverage in South Africa, example of, 81; informal transactions as dominant in, 53 (see also informal financial sector); large cash flows as common feature of, 31 (see also short-term cash-flow management); methodology for study of the functioning of (see methodology); opportunities for improvement of, 177–80; partial solutions from different sources, perspective on, 67; prices understood through, 21–23 (see also prices); savings as common feature of, 46–47 (see also savings); of transactions and relationships, 49–52.


pages: 349 words: 114,038

Culture & Empire: Digital Revolution by Pieter Hintjens

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4chan, airport security, anti-communist, anti-pattern, barriers to entry, Bill Duvall, bitcoin, blockchain, business climate, business intelligence, business process, Chelsea Manning, clean water, congestion charging, Corn Laws, correlation does not imply causation, cryptocurrency, Debian, Edward Snowden, failed state, financial independence, Firefox, full text search, German hyperinflation, global village, GnuPG, Google Chrome, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, hiring and firing, informal economy, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Rulifson, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, M-Pesa, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, national security letter, new economy, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, packet switching, patent troll, peak oil, pre–internet, private military company, race to the bottom, rent-seeking, reserve currency, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, Satoshi Nakamoto, security theater, Skype, slashdot, software patent, spectrum auction, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, trade route, transaction costs, union organizing, web application, WikiLeaks, Y2K, zero day, Zipf's Law

The massive volumes of free content also hurt the case for micropayments. There are a few businesses that use so-called "paywalls" successfully. Typically, these are existing publishers whose subscribers already expect to pay. The focus however is on subscriptions, not micropayments. In 2002, the M-Pesa system formalized mobile phone micropayments in Kenya. Before that, users sent each other phone credit. Phone credit makes an extraordinarily good digital currency, as it is safe, portable, and has minimal transaction costs. Systems like M-Pesa succeeded in Africa mainly because there was no existing financial industry to lobby against it. Good luck trying to get a Visa card if you live in Lagos, Nigeria. Digital Currencies: From E-Gold to BitCoin The first digital currency was e-gold, founded in 1996. At its peak, e-gold had five million users and transactions of $2 billion a year.


pages: 371 words: 108,317

The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future by Kevin Kelly

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3D printing, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, AI winter, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, bank run, barriers to entry, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, bitcoin, blockchain, book scanning, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, cloud computing, computer age, connected car, crowdsourcing, dark matter, dematerialisation, Downton Abbey, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Filter Bubble, Freestyle chess, game design, Google Glasses, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, index card, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of movable type, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, linked data, Lyft, M-Pesa, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, Minecraft, multi-sided market, natural language processing, Netflix Prize, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, placebo effect, planetary scale, postindustrial economy, recommendation engine, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, slashdot, Snapchat, social graph, social web, software is eating the world, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steven Levy, Ted Nelson, the scientific method, transport as a service, two-sided market, Uber for X, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Review

But moving physical cash around is not practical as our economy goes global. PayPal and other peer-to-peer electronic systems are able to bridge the vast geographical spans on a global economy, but each of its peer-to-peer payments must go through a central database to be sure a dollar is not spent twice or is not fraudulent. Mobile phone and internet companies devised very useful payment schemes for impoverished areas based on a phone app, such as M-Pesa. But until recently even the most advanced e-money system needed a central bank to keep the money honest. Six years ago some shady characters who wanted to sell drugs online with the anonymity of cash were looking for a currency without a government hand. And some admirable characters championing human rights were looking for a money system that would work outside of corrupt or repressive governments, or in places of no governance at all.

subscribe to Photoshop: “Subscription Products Boost Adobe Fiscal 2Q Results,” Associated Press, June 16, 2015. Uber for laundry: Jessica Pressler, “‘Let’s, Like, Demolish Laundry,’” New York, May 21, 2014. Uber for doctor house calls: Jennifer Jolly, “An Uber for Doctor House Calls,” New York Times, May 5, 2015. sizable bag rental business: Emily Hamlin Smith, “Where to Rent Designer Handbags, Clothes, Accessories and More,” Cleveland Plain Dealer, September 12, 2012. phone app, such as M-Pesa: Murithi Mutiga, “Kenya’s Banking Revolution Lights a Fire,” New York Times, January 20, 2014. has $3 billion in circulation: “Bitcoin Network,” Bitcoin Charts, accessed June 24, 2015. 100,000 vendors accepting the coins: Wouter Vonk, “Bitcoin and BitPay in 2014,” BitPay blog, February 4, 2015. Six times an hour: Colin Dean, “How Many Bitcoin Are Mined Per Day?,” Bitcoin Stack Exchange, March 28, 2013.


pages: 478 words: 126,416

Other People's Money: Masters of the Universe or Servants of the People? by John Kay

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Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, Basel III, Bernie Madoff, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, bitcoin, Black Swan, Bonfire of the Vanities, bonus culture, Bretton Woods, call centre, capital asset pricing model, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, cross-subsidies, dematerialisation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, Elon Musk, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, eurozone crisis, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, Flash crash, forward guidance, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, George Akerlof, German hyperinflation, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Growth in a Time of Debt, income inequality, index fund, inflation targeting, interest rate derivative, interest rate swap, invention of the wheel, Irish property bubble, Isaac Newton, London Whale, Long Term Capital Management, loose coupling, low cost carrier, M-Pesa, market design, millennium bug, mittelstand, moral hazard, mortgage debt, new economy, Nick Leeson, Northern Rock, obamacare, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shock, passive investing, peer-to-peer lending, performance metric, Peter Thiel, Piper Alpha, Ponzi scheme, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, railway mania, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, regulatory arbitrage, Renaissance Technologies, rent control, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Schrödinger's Cat, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the market place, The Myth of the Rational Market, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Tobin tax, too big to fail, transaction costs, tulip mania, Upton Sinclair, Vanguard fund, Washington Consensus, We are the 99%, Yom Kippur War

Banks have been slower to promote debit cards, which integrate electronic payment systems with current accounts. We don’t need to use paper any more, whether in the form of banknotes, cheques or bank statements. The use of transport smartcards has speeded the adoption of contactless payment, and you can readily see the resulting savings in time and staffing and reduced congestion. Transfers via mobile phones have been particularly important in some poor countries (famously Kenya’s M-Pesa) where the mobile phone network is the most – perhaps the only – efficient component of the national infrastructure. PayPal, the largest internet payment system, is owned by the online auction house eBay. It is not hard to visualise a world in which notes and coins have disappeared. You would wave a pre-loaded card to make a small payment, while larger payments would take place by direct electronic transfer between accounts.

C. 282 Levy, Gus 118 Lewis, Ken 300 Lewis, Michael 33 Liar’s Poker 110 LIBOR scandal 35, 272, 295 Library of Congress, Washington DC 115 life insurance companies 197, 199, 201, 282 life-expectancy 77, 257 Liikanen Committee 194, 287 limited liability companies 31, 32, 234 liquidity 29, 40, 41, 43, 79, 87–95, 163, 205, 210, 212, 289 definition 89 end-users 93, 94 and the global financial crisis 188, 278, 286 government intervention 91–2 high-frequency traders 94 illusion of 92, 95, 188 milk analogy 87–8, 89, 91–2 panic buying 89 pursuit of 226 solvency issue 91 speculation 93 and the supply chain 92 supplying or reducing 244 ticket touts 94–5 Litton Industries 45 Lloyd, Edward 61, 62 Lloyds Bank 24, 38, 138, 139, 268 Lloyd’s coffee house, London 61, 62, 71, 87, 258 Lloyd’s of London and Equitas 107 Lloyd’s building 62 Lutine Bell 62 ‘names’ 62, 63, 100 ‘the Room’ 62 LMX spiral 62–3, 64 loan guarantees 138 loan-to-value ratios 262 logistics 80, 81 London attractive to oligarchs and corrupt foreign politicians 269 underground network 159 London Metal Exchange 17 London Stock Exchange 26–7, 28, 29, 31, 212 London Transport 263 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) 69, 90, 98, 110, 111, 131, 134 ‘long-term greedy’ slogan 118 Longfellow, H.W.: Hyperion 220 Loomis, Carol 108 lotteries 65, 66, 68, 72 Lucas, Robert 40 Lynch, Dennios 108 Lynch, Peter 108, 109 M M-Pesa 186 Maastricht Treaty (1993) 243, 250 McCardie, Sir Henry 83, 84, 282, 284 McGowan, Harry 45 Machiavelli, Niccolò 224 McKinley, William 44 McKinsey 115, 126 Macy’s department store 46 Madoff, Bernard 29, 118, 131, 132, 177, 232, 293 Madoff Securities 177 Magnus, King of Sweden 196 Manhattan Island, New York: and Native American sellers 59, 63 Manne, Henry 46 manufacturing companies, rise of 45 Marconi 48 marine insurance 62, 63 mark-to-market accounting 126, 128–9, 320n22 mark-to-model approach 128–9, 320n21 Market Abuse Directive (MAD) 226 market economy 4, 281, 302, 308 ‘market for corporate control, the’ 46 market risk 97, 98, 177, 192 market-makers 25, 28, 30, 31 market-making 49, 109, 118, 136 Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MIFID) 226 Markkula, Mike 162, 166, 167 Markopolos, Harry 232 Markowitz, Harry 69 Markowitz model of portfolio allocation 68–9 Martin, Felix 323n5 martingale 130, 131, 136, 139, 190 Marx, Groucho 252 Marx, Karl 144, 145 Capital 143 Mary Poppins (film) 11, 12 MasterCard 186 Masters, Brooke 120 maturity transformation 88, 92 Maxwell, Robert 197, 201 Mayan civilisation 277 Meade, James 263 Means, Gardiner 51 Meeker, Mary 40, 167 Melamed, Leo 19 Mercedes 170 merchant banks 25, 30, 33 Meriwether, John 110, 134 Merkel, Angela 231 Merrill Lynch 135, 199, 293, 300 Merton, Robert 110 Metronet 159 Meyer, André 205 MGM 33 Microsoft 29, 167 middleman, role of the 80–87 agency and trading 82–3 analysts 86 bad intermediaries 81–2 from agency to trading 84–5 identifying goods and services required 80, 81 logistics 80, 81 services from financial intermediaries 80–81 supply chain 80, 81 transparency 84 ‘wisdom of crowds’ 86–7 Midland Bank 24 Milken, Michael 46, 292 ‘millennium bug’ 40 Miller, Bill 108, 109 Minuit, Peter 59, 63 Mises, Ludwig von 225 Mittelstand (medium-size business sector) 52, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172 mobile banking apps 181 mobile phone payment transfers 186–7 Modigliani-Miller theorem 318n9 monetarism 241 monetary economics 5 monetary policy 241, 243, 245, 246 money creation 88 money market fund 120–21 Moneyball phenomenon 165 monopolies 45 Monte Carlo casino 123 Monte dei Paschi Bank of Siena 24 Montgomery Securities 167 Moody’s rating agency 21, 248, 249, 313n6 moral hazard 74, 75, 76, 92, 95, 256, 258 Morgan, J.P. 44, 166, 291 Morgan Stanley 25, 40, 130, 135, 167, 268 Morgenthau, District Attorney Robert 232–3 mortality tables 256 mortgage banks 27 mortgage market fluctuation in mortgage costs 148 mechanised assessment 84–5 mortgage-backed securities 20, 21, 40, 85, 90, 100, 128, 130, 150, 151, 152, 168, 176–7, 284 synthetic 152 Mozilo, Angelo 150, 152, 154, 293 MSCI World Bank Index 135 muckraking 44, 54–5, 79 ‘mugus’ 118, 260 multinational companies, and diversification 96–7 Munger, Charlie 127 Munich, Germany 62 Munich Re 62 Musk, Elon 168 mutual funds 27, 108, 202, 206 mutual societies 30 mutualisation 79 mutuality 124, 213 ‘My Way’ (song) 72 N Napoleon Bonaparte 26 Napster 185 NASA 276 NASDAQ 29, 108, 161 National Economic Council (US) 5, 58 National Employment Savings Trust (NEST) 255 National Institutes of Health 167 National Insurance Fund (UK) 254 National Provincial Bank 24 National Science Foundation 167 National Westminster Bank 24, 34 Nationwide 151 Native Americans 59, 63 Nazis 219, 221 neo-liberal economic policies 39, 301 Netjets 107 Netscape 40 Neue Markt 170 New Deal 225 ‘new economy’ bubble (1999) 23, 34, 40, 42, 98, 132, 167, 199, 232, 280 new issue market 112–13 New Orleans, Louisiana: Hurricane Katrina disaster (2005) 79 New Testament 76 New York Stock Exchange 26–7, 28, 29, 31, 49, 292 New York Times 283 News of the World 292, 295 Newton, Isaac 35, 132, 313n18 Niederhoffer, Victor 109 NINJAs (no income, no job, no assets) 222 Nixon, Richard 36 ‘no arbitrage’ condition 69 non-price competition 112, 219 Norman, Montagu 253 Northern Rock 89, 90–91, 92, 150, 152 Norwegian sovereign wealth fund 161, 253 Nostradamus 274 O Obama, Barack 5, 58, 77, 194, 271, 301 ‘Obamacare’ 77 Occidental Petroleum 63 Occupy movement 52, 54, 312n2 ‘Occupy Wall Street’ slogan 305 off-balance-sheet financing 153, 158, 160, 210, 250 Office of Thrift Supervision 152–3 oil shock (1973–4) 14, 36–7, 89 Old Testament 75–6 oligarchy 269, 302–3, 305 oligopoly 118, 188 Olney, Richard 233, 237, 270 open market operations 244 options 19, 22 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 263 Osborne, George 328n19 ‘out of the money option’ 102, 103 Overend, Gurney & Co. 31 overseas assets and liabilities 179–80, 179 owner-managed businesses 30 ox parable xi-xii Oxford University 12 P Pacific Gas and Electric 246 Pan Am 238 Paris financial centre 26 Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards 295 partnerships 30, 49, 50, 234 limited liability 313n14 Partnoy, Frank 268 passive funds 99, 212 passive management 207, 209, 212 Patek Philippe 195, 196 Paulson, Hank 300 Paulson, John 64, 109, 115, 152, 191, 284 ‘payment in kind’ securities 131 payment protection policies 198 payments system 6, 7, 25, 180, 181–8, 247, 259–60, 281, 297, 306 PayPal 167, 168, 187 Pecora, Ferdinand 25 Pecora hearings (1932–34) 218 peer-to-peer lending 81 pension funds 29, 98, 175, 177, 197, 199, 200, 201, 208, 213, 254, 282, 284 pension provision 78, 253–6 pension rights 53, 178 Perkins, Charles 233 perpetual inventory method 321n4 Perrow, Charles 278, 279 personal financial management 6, 7 personal liability 296 ‘petrodollars’ 14, 37 Pfizer 96 Pierpoint Morgan, J. 165 Piper Alpha oil rig disaster (1987) 63 Ponzi, Charles 131, 132 Ponzi schemes 131, 132, 136, 201 pooled investment funds 197 portfolio insurance 38 Potts, Robin, QC 61, 63, 72, 119, 193 PPI, mis-selling of 296 Prebble, Lucy: ENRON 126 price competition 112, 219 price discovery 226 price mechanism 92 Prince, Chuck 34 private equity 27, 98, 166, 210 managers 210, 289 private insurance 76, 77 private sector 78 privatisation 39, 78, 157, 158, 258, 307 probabilistic thinking 67, 71, 79 Procter & Gamble 69, 108 product innovation 13 property and infrastructure 154–60 protectionism 13 Prudential 200 public companies, conversion to 18, 31–2, 49 public debt 252 public sector 78 Q Quandt, Herbert 170 Quandt Foundation 170 quantitative easing 245, 251 quantitative style 110–11 quants 22, 107, 110 Quattrone, Frank 167, 292–3 queuing 92 Quinn, Sean 156 R railroad regulation 237 railway mania (1840s) 35 Raines, Franklin 152 Rajan, Raghuram 56, 58, 79, 102 Rakoff, Judge Jed 233, 294, 295 Ramsey, Frank 67, 68 Rand, Ayn 79, 240 ‘random walk’ 69 Ranieri, Lew 20, 22, 106–7, 134, 152 rating agencies 21, 41, 84–5, 97, 151, 152, 153, 159, 249–50 rationality 66–7, 68 RBS see Royal Bank of Scotland re-insurance 62–3 Reagan, Ronald 18, 23, 54, 59, 240 real economy 7, 18, 57, 143, 172, 190, 213, 226, 239, 271, 280, 288, 292, 298 redundancy 73, 279 Reed, John 33–4, 48, 49, 50, 51, 242, 293, 314n40 reform 270–96 other people’s money 282–5 personal responsibility 292–6 principles of 270–75 the reform of structure 285–92 robust systems and complex structures 276–81 regulation 215, 217–39 the Basel agreements 220–25 and competition 113 the origins of financial regulation 217–19 ‘principle-based’ 224 the regulation industry 229–33 ‘rule-based’ 224 securities regulation 225–9 what went wrong 233–9 ‘Regulation Q’ (US) 13, 14, 20, 28, 120, 121 regulatory agencies 229, 230, 231, 235, 238, 274, 295, 305 regulatory arbitrage 119–24, 164, 223, 250 regulatory capture 237, 248, 262 Reich, Robert 265, 266 Reinhart, C.M. 251 relationship breakdown 74, 79 Rembrandts, genuine/fake 103, 127 Renaissance Technologies 110, 111, 191 ‘repo 105’ arbitrage 122 repo agreement 121–2 repo market 121 Reserve Bank of India 58 Reserve Primary Fund 121 Resolution Trust Corporation 150 retirement pension 78 return on equity (RoE) 136–7, 191 Revelstoke, first Lord 31 risk 6, 7, 55, 56–79 adverse selection and moral hazard 72–9 analysis by ‘ketchup economists’ 64 chasing the dream 65–72 Geithner on 57–8 investment 256 Jackson Hole symposium 56–7 Kohn on 56 laying bets on the interpretation of incomplete information 61 and Lloyd’s 62–3 the LMX spiral 62–3, 64 longevity 256 market 97, 98 mitigation 297 randomness 76 socialisation of individual risks 61 specific 97–8 risk management 67–8, 72, 79, 137, 191, 229, 233, 234, 256 risk premium 208 risk thermostat 74–5 risk weighting 222, 224 risk-pooling 258 RJR Nabisco 46, 204 ‘robber barons’ 44, 45, 51–2 Robertson, Julian 98, 109, 132 Robertson Stephens 167 Rockefeller, John D. 44, 52, 196 Rocket Internet 170 Rogers, Richard 62 Rogoff, K.S. 251 rogue traders 130, 300 Rohatyn, Felix 205 Rolls-Royce 90 Roman empire 277, 278 Rome, Treaty of (1964) 170 Rooney, Wayne 268 Roosevelt, Franklin D. v, 25, 235 Roosevelt, Theodore 43–4, 235, 323n1 Rothschild family 217 Royal Bank of Scotland 11, 12, 14, 24, 26, 34, 78, 91, 103, 124, 129, 135, 138, 139, 211, 231, 293 Rubin, Robert 57 In an Uncertain World 67 Ruskin, John 60, 63 Unto this Last 56 Russia defaults on debts 39 oligarchies 303 Russian Revolution (1917) 3 S Saes 168 St Paul’s Churchyard, City of London 305 Salomon Bros. 20, 22, 27, 34, 110, 133–4 ‘Salomon North’ 110 Salz Review: An Independent Review of Barclays’ Business Practices 217 Samuelson, Paul 208 Samwer, Oliver 170 Sarkozy, Nicolas 248, 249 Savage, L.J. 67 Scholes, Myron 19, 69, 110 Schrödinger’s cat 129 Scottish Parliament 158 Scottish Widows 26, 27, 30 Scottish Widows Fund 26, 197, 201, 212, 256 search 195, 209, 213 defined 144 and the investment bank 197 Second World War 36, 221 secondary markets 85, 170, 210 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 20, 64, 126, 152, 197, 225, 226, 228, 230, 232, 247, 292, 293, 294, 313n6 securities regulation 225–9 securitisation 20–21, 54, 100, 151, 153, 164, 169, 171, 222–3 securitisation boom (1980s) 200 securitised loans 98 See’s Candies 107 Segarra, Carmen 232 self-financing companies 45, 179, 195–6 sell-side analysts 199 Sequoia Capital 166 Shad, John S.R. 225, 228–9 shareholder value 4, 45, 46, 50, 211 Sharpe, William 69, 70 Shell 96 Sherman Act (1891) 44 Shiller, Robert 85 Siemens 196 Siemens, Werner von 196 Silicon Valley, California 166, 167, 168, 171, 172 Simon, Hermann 168 Simons, Jim 23, 27, 110, 111–12, 124 Sinatra, Frank 72 Sinclair, Upton 54, 79, 104, 132–3 The Jungle 44 Sing Sing maximum-security gaol, New York 292 Skilling, Jeff 126, 127, 128, 149, 197, 259 Slim, Carlos 52 Sloan, Alfred 45, 49 Sloan Foundation 49 small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), financing 165–72, 291 Smith, Adam 31, 51, 60 The Wealth of Nations v, 56, 106 Smith, Greg 283 Smith Barney 34 social security 52, 79, 255 Social Security Trust Fund (US) 254, 255 socialism 4, 225, 301 Société Générale 130 ‘soft commission’ 29 ‘soft’ commodities 17 Soros, George 23, 27, 98, 109, 111–12, 124, 132 South Sea Bubble (18th century) 35, 132, 292 sovereign wealth funds 161, 253 Soviet empire 36 Soviet Union 225 collapse of 23 lack of confidence in supplies 89–90 Spain: property bubble 42 Sparks, D.L. 114, 283, 284 specific risk 97–8 speculation 93 Spitzer, Eliot 232, 292 spread 28, 94 Spread Networks 2 Square 187 Stamp Duty 274 Standard & Poor’s rating agency 21, 99, 248, 249, 313n6 Standard Life 26, 27, 30 standard of living 77 Standard Oil 44, 196, 323n1 Standard Oil of New Jersey (later Exxon) 323n1 Stanford University 167 Stanhope 158 State Street 200, 207 sterling devaluation (1967) 18 stewardship 144, 163, 195–203, 203, 208, 209, 210, 211, 213 Stewart, Jimmy 12 Stigler, George 237 stock exchanges 17 see also individual stock exchanges stock markets change in organisation of 28 as a means of taking money out of companies 162 rise of 38 stock-picking 108 stockbrokers 16, 25, 30, 197, 198 Stoll, Clifford 227–8 stone fei (in Micronesia) 323n5 Stone, Richard 263 Stora Enso 196 strict liability 295–6 Strine, Chancellor Leo 117 structured investment vehicles (SIVs) 158, 223 sub-prime lending 34–5, 75 sub-prime mortgages 63, 75, 109, 149, 150, 169, 244 Summers, Larry 22, 55, 73, 119, 154, 299 criticism of Rajan’s views 57 ‘ketchup economics’ 5, 57, 69 support for financialisation 57 on transformation of investment banking 15 Sunday Times 143 ‘Rich List’ 156 supermarkets: financial services 27 supply chain 80, 81, 83, 89, 92 Surowiecki, James: The Wisdom of Crowds xi swap markets 21 SWIFT clearing system 184 Swiss Re 62 syndication 62 Syriza 306 T Taibbi, Matt 55 tailgating 102, 103, 104, 128, 129, 130, 136, 138, 140, 152, 155, 190–91, 200 Tainter, Joseph 277 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas 125, 183 Fooled by Randomness 133 Tarbell, Ida 44, 54 TARGET2 system 184, 244 TARP programme 138 tax havens 123 Taylor, Martin 185 Taylor Bean and Whitaker 293 Tea Party 306 technological innovation 13, 185, 187 Tel Aviv, Israel 171 telecommunications network 181, 182 Tesla Motors 168 Tetra 168 TfL 159 Thai exchange rate, collapse of (1997) 39 Thain, John 300 Thatcher, Margaret 18, 23, 54, 59, 148, 151, 157 Thiel, Peter 167 Third World debt problem 37, 131 thrifts 25, 149, 150, 151, 154, 174, 290, 292 ticket touts 94–5 Tobin, James 273 Tobin tax 273–4 Tolstoy, Count Leo 97 Tonnies, Ferdinand 17 ‘too big to fail’ 75, 140, 276, 277 Tourre, Fabrice ‘Fabulous Fab’ 63–4, 115, 118, 232, 293, 294 trader model 82, 83 trader, rise of the 16–24 elements of the new trading culture 21–2 factors contributing to the change 17–18 foreign exchange 18–19 from personal relationships to anonymous markets 17 hedge fund managers 23 independent traders 22–3 information technology 19–20 regulation 20 securitisation 20–21 shift from agency to trading 16 trading as a principal source of revenue and remuneration 17 trader model 82, 83 ‘trading book’ 320n20 transparency 29, 84, 205, 210, 212, 226, 260 Travelers Group 33, 34, 48 ‘treasure islands’ 122–3 Treasuries 75 Treasury (UK) 135, 158 troubled assets relief program 135 Truman, Harry S. 230, 325n13 trust 83–4, 85, 182, 213, 218, 260–61 Tuckett, David 43, 71, 79 tulip mania (1630s) 35 Turner, Adair 303 TWA 238 Twain, Mark: Pudd’nhead Wilson’s Calendar 95–6 Twitter 185 U UBS 33, 134 UK Independence Party 306 unemployment 73, 74, 79 unit trusts 202 United States global dominance of the finance industry 218 house prices 41, 43, 149, 174 stock bubble (1929) 201 universal banks 26–7, 33 University of Chicago 19, 69 ‘unknown unknowns’ 67 UPS delivery system 279–80 US Defense Department 167 US Steel 44 US Supreme Court 228, 229, 304 US Treasury 36, 38, 135 utility networks 181–2 V value discovery 226–7 value horizon 109 Van Agtmael, Antoine 39 Vanderbilt, Cornelius 44 Vanguard 200, 207, 213 venture capital 166 firms 27, 168 venture capitalists 171, 172 Vickers Commission 194 Viniar, David 204–5, 233, 282, 283, 284 VISA 186 volatility 85, 93, 98, 103, 131, 255 Volcker, Paul 150, 181 Volcker Rule 194 voluntary agencies 258 W wagers and credit default swaps 119 defined 61 at Lloyd’s coffee house 71–2 lottery tickets 65 Wall Street, New York 1, 16, 312n2 careers in 15 rivalry with London 13 staffing of 217 Wall Street Crash (1929) 20, 25, 27, 36, 127, 201 Wall Street Journal 294 Wallenberg family 108 Walmart 81, 83 Warburg 134 Warren, Elizabeth 237 Washington consensus 39 Washington Mutual 135, 149 Wasserstein, Bruce 204, 205 Watergate affair 240 ‘We are the 99 per cent’ slogan 52, 305 ‘We are Wall Street’ 16, 55, 267–8, 271, 300, 301 Weber, Max 17 Weill, Sandy 33–4, 35, 48–51, 55, 91, 149, 293, 314n40 Weinstock, Arnold 48 Welch, Jack 45–6, 48, 50, 52, 126, 314n40 WestLB 169 Westminster Bank 24 Whitney, Richard 292 Wilson, Harold 18 windfall payments 14, 32, 127, 153, 290 winner’s curse 103, 104, 156, 318n11 Winslow Jones, Alfred 23 Winton Capital 111 Wolfe, Humbert 7 The Uncelestial City 1 Wolfe, Tom 268 The Bonfire of the Vanities 16, 22 women traders 22 Woodford, Neil 108 Woodward, Bob: Maestro 240 World Bank 14, 220 World.Com bonds 197 Wozniak, Steve 162 Wriston, Walter 37 Y Yellen, Janet 230–31 Yom Kippur War (1973) 36 YouTube 185 Z Zurich, Switzerland 62


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Blockchain Revolution: How the Technology Behind Bitcoin Is Changing Money, Business, and the World by Don Tapscott, Alex Tapscott

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Airbnb, altcoin, asset-backed security, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Bretton Woods, business process, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, disintermediation, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, ethereum blockchain, failed state, fiat currency, financial innovation, Firefox, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, future of work, Galaxy Zoo, George Gilder, glass ceiling, Google bus, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, informal economy, interest rate swap, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, Lean Startup, litecoin, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, microcredit, mobile money, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, performance metric, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, price mechanism, Productivity paradox, quantitative easing, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, renewable energy credits, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, seigniorage, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart contracts, smart grid, social graph, social software, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, supply-chain management, TaskRabbit, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Nature of the Firm, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, Turing complete, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, unorthodox policies, X Prize, Y2K, Zipcar

According to Tyler Winklevoss, banks don’t serve most of the world and have no existing plans to serve them. However, new technology could remove that step. He said, “A lot of African countries leapfrogged the infrastructure of landline telecoms with cellular. They skipped that step. Blockchain will have the greatest impact in areas where the payment networks don’t exist or are very poor.”20 Blockchain will push many nascent initiatives, such as mobile-money service providers like M-Pesa in Kenya, owned by Safaricom, and microcredit outfits globally, into high gear by making them open, global, and lightning fast. A bank is the most common financial institution, and so we will use it as an example here. How do you open a bank account? If you live in the developing world today, you will likely have to visit the branch in person. In Nicaragua, there are only 7 bank branches per 100,000 people compared with 34 per 100,000 in the United States.

See First era of the Internet Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF), 271, 281, 299, 305 Internet Governance Forum (IGF), 300 Internet of Things (IoT), 3, 38, 146, 147–48, 152–55 economic payoffs, 161–64 future developments, 164–67 hacking your future, 168–69 public sector use of, 206–7 twelve disruptions, 156–61 Internet Society, 281, 300 Intrade, 84 Investing, in financial services, 62–63, 64 IPOs (initial public offerings), 82–84, 127, 180, 181 Iran, 13 Ito, Joichi, 246–49, 286, 289, 301 Jaques, Elliot, 106 Jennings, Eric, 147–48, 157, 162–63, 260 Jensen, Michael, 100, 108 Jive, 139 Jobanputra, Jalak, 287 Job killer, 270–71 JPMorgan Chase, 8, 43, 63 Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act, 82–83 Jurisdiction issues, 264 Justice system, 220–21, 223 Kahn, Bob, 281 Kahneman, Daniel, 279 Kaminska, Izabella, 78, 257–58, 266 Karpeles, Mark, 247 Kaye, David, 244 Kaye, Max, 216 Keating, Zoë, 21, 235–36, 237 Kessler, Sarah, 135 Keyless signature infrastructure (KSI), 199 Kidder, Tracy, 150 Kim, Joyce, 170–72, 177, 287 Kirby, Peter, 194 Knowledge networks, 300–301 Kulin, Haluk, 43, 46, 48, 178 Kurzweil, Ray, 336n Labor markets, 270–71 Land title registration, 8, 19–20, 51, 188–89, 193–95, 198 Larsen, Chris, 59, 67 Law enforcement, 286–87 Law profession, 102–3 Lawsky, Benjamin, 8, 287, 289–92 Leadership, 24, 281–309 framework for governance, 298–307 new agenda for next digital age, 307–9 the players, 283–89 regulation and, 289–93, 296–97 Lederman, Leon, 4–5 Ledger of Everything, 152 Ledger of Things, 145–69 economic payoffs, 161–64 evolution of computing, 150–52 future developments, 164–67 hacking your future, 168–69 Internet of Things, 152–55 power to the people, 146–50 twelve disruptions, 156–61 Legal disputes, 100, 105, 193, 219, 221 Legal frameworks, 264 Legal recourse, lack of, 258 Lending value, in financial services, 62, 64 Libertarianism, 199–200, 201, 327n Library of Congress, 133 Licensed exchanges, 291 Lightfoot, Gordon, 29 Lighthouse, 94 Lih, Andrew, 131 Lincoln, Abraham, 199 LinkedIn, 99 Linux, 12, 88, 129–30, 141, 282 Linux Foundation, 69, 285 Lipset, Seymour Martin, 201 Liquid democracy, 218–19 Liquidity, 256, 295 Litecoin, 257 Litecoin Association, 267 Literacy, 172, 195, 249 Live Nation, 229 Living standards, 172 Locally generated power, 148, 149–50 London School of Economics, 74 LO3 Energy, 148, 149 Lubin, Joseph, 15–16, 88–91, 112–13, 141, 177–78 Ludwin, Adam, 68 Lundkvist, Christian, 76 Lyft, 134, 164 MaidSafe, 95 Mainframes, 150 Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, 213 Managers (management) ConsenSys, 89–91 public sector, 206–7 smart devices and IoT, 157, 159–60, 161 Manifesto for the Digital Age, 308–9 Manila, remittances, 182–83, 186 Manufacturing, 160, 174 Marketing, search costs, 97 Massive open online courses (MOOCs), 248–49 Masters, Blythe, 8, 63, 65, 66, 68, 73, 287, 289 McAdam, Cindy, 287 McKinsey, 156, 163–64, 169, 194 McLuhan, Marshall, 14 McWaters, Jesse, 66, 306 Meckling, William, 100 Medical records, 158 Medici, 83 Member ownership, 89–91 Members of a social network, 262 Mesh networks, 123, 146–47 Metaverse, 38 Metering economy, 135–36, 180, 233 MHITs, 50–51 Microblogging, 246 Microfinance, 56, 170–72, 191–92 current issues with, 191–92 inclusion design principle, 49–51 Nicaragua example, 170–72, 176 prosperity passport, 177, 178 Microgrids, 148–50 Micromonetizing, 180–81, 233 Microsoft, 4, 150, 270, 310 Microsoft Yammer, 139–40 Millennials, 174 Mi.Mu, 228 Miners, 30–32, 240–41, 260, 267, 268–69 Mining, 240–41, 259–60, 268–69 Mining rate, 38 MintPal, 266 MIT Bitcoin Project, 247 MIT Digital Currency Initiative, 247, 282, 284, 286, 301, 303, 305 MIT Media Lab, 27, 246–47, 286, 305 M-of-N signature, 104 Monegraph, 133 Monetary policy, 37–38, 56, 294–95, 309 Money laundering, 176, 275–76 Monks, Robert, 78 Monopolies, 57, 93–95 Moore’s law, 4, 51, 307–8 Moreira, Carlos, 11, 14, 15, 154, 204 Morgan, Pamela, 219, 287 Mornini, Tom, 73–74, 77 Morris, Gilbert, 173 Motion detectors, 254 Moving value, in financial services, 61, 64 M-Pesa, 176 Mt. Gox, 9, 247 Mugabe, Robert, 216–17 Muller, Ralf, 237–38 Mulligan, Mark, 230 Multisignature (multisig), 103–5 Multistakeholders, 282, 297, 298–99 Murdoch, Rupert, 310 Music, 21, 226–39 A&R, 238–39 basic copyright registration, 236, 237–38 business complexity, 228–31 digital content management system, 238 emergence of new business model, 231–35 ownership rights, 45–49, 132–33 self-launched artists, 235–37 smart contracts, 47, 231 Music copyright, 45–49, 132–33, 228–31, 234, 236, 237–38 Music Key, 236 Musk, Elon, 274 MyBarackObama.com, 224 Nadex, 84 Napster, 21, 263 NASDAQ, 83–84 NASDAQ Linq, 65 Nathan, Oz, 27–28 National Institute of Standards and Technology, 40 National Rifle Association, 200–201, 276 National Security Agency, 42, 274 Natural disaster relief, 20–21, 188–89, 190–91 “Nature of the Firm, The” (Coase), 92–93 Nest, 275 Networked institutions, 306 Networked integrity, 10, 30–33 Networked intelligence, 164 Network effects, 51, 67, 175 Network protocol, 271–72 Neutral Voting Bloc (NVB), 216 New business formation, rate of, 173–74 New business models, 115–44, 168 autonomous agents, 122–25 bAirbnb vs.

Future Files: A Brief History of the Next 50 Years by Richard Watson

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Albert Einstein, bank run, banking crisis, battle of ideas, Black Swan, call centre, carbon footprint, cashless society, citizen journalism, computer age, computer vision, congestion charging, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, deglobalization, digital Maoism, disintermediation, epigenetics, failed state, financial innovation, Firefox, food miles, future of work, global supply chain, global village, hive mind, industrial robot, invention of the telegraph, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, knowledge economy, linked data, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, Northern Rock, peak oil, pensions crisis, precision agriculture, prediction markets, Ralph Nader, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, RFID, Richard Florida, self-driving car, speech recognition, telepresence, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Turing test, Victor Gruen, white flight, women in the workforce, Zipcar

A 311 Index ‘O’ Garage 170 3D printers 56 accelerated education 57 accidents 159, 161–6, 173, 246 ACNielsen 126 adaptive cruise control 165 Adeg Aktiv 50+ 208 advertising 115–16, 117, 119 Africa 70, 89, 129, 174, 221, 245, 270, 275, 290, 301 ageing 1, 10, 54, 69, 93, 139, 147–8, 164, 188, 202, 208, 221, 228–9, 237, 239, 251, 261, 292, 295, 297–8 airborne networks 56 airlines 272 allergies 196–7, 234, 236 Alliance Against Urban 4x4s 171 alternative energy 173 alternative futures viii alternative medicine 244–5 alternative technology 151 amateur production 111–12 Amazon 32, 113–14, 121 American Apparel 207 American Express 127–8 androids 55 Angola 77 anti-ageing drugs 231, 237 anti-ageing foods 188 anti-ageing surgery 2, 237 antibiotics 251 anxiety 10, 16, 30, 32, 36, 37, 128, 149, 179, 184, 197, 199, 225, 228, 243, 251, 252, 256, 263, 283–4, 295–6, 300, 301, 305 Apple 61, 115, 121, 130, 137–8, 157 Appleyard, Bryan 79 Argentina 210 Armamark Corporation 193 artificial intelliegence 22, 40, 44, 82 131, 275, 285–6, 297, 300 Asda 136, 137 Asia 11, 70, 78, 89, 129, 150, 174, 221, 280, 290, 292 Asimov, Isaac 44 Asos.com 216 asthma 235 auditory display software 29 Australia 20–21, 72–3, 76, 92, 121, 145, 196, 242, 246, 250, 270, 282 Austria 208 authenticity 32, 37, 179, 194, 203–11 authoritarianism 94 automated publishing machine (APM) 114 automation 292 automotive industry 154–77 B&Q 279 baby boomers 41, 208 bacterial factories 56 Bahney, Anna 145 Bahrain 2 baking 27, 179, 195, 199 Bangladesh 2 bank accounts, body double 132 banknotes 29, 128 banks 22, 123, 135–8, 150, 151 virtual 134 Barnes and Noble 114 bartering 151 BBC 25, 119 Become 207 Belgium 238 313 314 benriya 28 Berlusconi, Silvio 92 Best Buy 223 biofuel 64 biomechatronics 56 biometric identification 28, 35, 52, 68, 88, 132 bionic body parts 55 Biosphere Expeditions 259 biotechnology 40, 300 blended families 20 blogs 103, 107, 109, 120 Blurb 113 BMW 289 board games 225 body double bank accounts 132 body parts bionic 55 replacement 2, 188, 228 Bolivia 73 Bollywood 111 books 29, 105, 111–25 boomerang kids 145 brain transplants 231 brain-enhancing foods 188 Brazil 2, 84, 89, 173, 247, 254, 270, 290 Burger King 184 business 13, 275–92 Bust-Up 189 busyness 27, 195, 277 Calvin, Bill 45 Canada 63, 78, 240 cancer 251 car sharing 160, 169, 176 carbon credits 173 carbon footprints 255 carbon taxes 76, 172 cars classic 168–9 driverless 154–5 flying 156, 165 hydrogen-powered 12, 31, 157, 173 pay-as-you-go 167–8 self-driving 165 cascading failure 28 cash 126–7, 205 cellphone payments 129, 213 cellphones 3, 25, 35, 51, 53, 120, 121, FUTURE FILES 129, 156, 161, 251 chicken, Christian 192 childcare robots 57 childhood 27, 33–4, 82–3 children’s database 86 CHIME nations (China, India, Middle East) 2, 10, 81 China 2, 10, 11, 69–72, 75–81, 88, 92–3, 125, 137, 139–40, 142, 151, 163, 174–5, 176, 200, 222, 228, 247, 260, 270–71, 275, 279, 295, 302 choice 186–7 Christian chicken 192 Christianity, muscular 16, 73 Chrysler 176 cinema 110–11, 120 Citibank 29, 128 citizen journalism 103–4, 108 City Car Club 168 Clarke, Arthur C. 58–9 Clarke’s 187 classic cars 168–9 climate change 4, 11, 37, 43, 59, 64, 68, 74, 77–9, 93, 150, 155, 254, 257, 264, 298–9 climate-controlled buildings 254, 264 cloning 38 human 23, 249 CNN 119 coal 176 Coca-Cola 78, 222–3 co-creation 111–12, 119 coins 29, 128, 129 collective intelligence 45–6 Collins, Jim 288 comfort eating 200 Comme des Garçons 216 community 36 compassion 120 competition in financial services 124–5 low-cost 292 computers disposable 56 intelligent 23, 43 organic 56 wearable 56, 302 computing 3, 33, 43, 48, 82 connectivity 3, 10, 11, 15, 91, 120, Index 233, 261, 275–6, 281, 292, 297, 299 conscientious objection taxation 86 contactless payments 123, 150 continuous partial attention 53 control 36, 151, 225 convenience 123, 178–9, 184, 189, 212, 223, 224 Coren, Stanley 246 corporate social responsibility 276, 282, 298 cosmetic neurology 250 Costa Rica 247 Craig’s List 102 creativity 11, 286; see also innovation credit cards 141–3, 150 crime 86–9 forecasting 86–7 gene 57, 86 Croatia 200 Crowdstorm 207 Cuba 75 cultural holidays 259, 273 culture 11, 17–37 currency, global 127, 151 customization 56, 169, 221–2, 260 cyberterrorism 65, 88–9 Cyc 45 cynicism 37 DayJet 262 death 237–9 debt 123–4, 140–44, 150 defense 63, 86 deflation 139 democracy 94 democratization of media 104, 108, 113 demographics 1, 10, 21, 69, 82, 93, 202, 276, 279–81, 292, 297–8 Denmark 245 department stores 214 deregulation 11, 3 Destiny Health 149 detox 200 Detroit Project 171 diagnosis 232 remote 228 digital downloads 121 evaporation 25 315 immortality 24–5 instant gratification syndrome 202 Maoism 47 money 12, 29, 123, 126–7, 129, 132, 138, 150, 191 nomads 20, 283 plasters 241 privacy 25, 97, 108 readers 121 digitalization 37, 292 Dinner by Design 185 dirt holidays 236 discount retailers 224 Discovery Health 149 diseases 2, 228 disintegrators 57 Disney 118–19 disposable computers 56 divorce 33, 85 DNA 56–7, 182 database 86 testing, compulsory 86 do-it-yourself dinner shops 185–6 dolls 24 doorbells 32 downshifters 20 Dream Dinners 185 dream fulfillment 148 dressmaking 225 drink 178–200 driverless cars 154–5 drugs anti-ageing 231, 237 performance-improving 284–5 Dubai 264, 267, 273 dynamic pricing 260 E Ink 115 e-action 65 Earthwatch 259 Eastern Europe 290 eBay 207 e-books 29, 37, 60, 114, 115, 302 eco-luxe resorts 272 economic collapse 2, 4, 36, 72, 221, 295 economic protectionism 10, 15, 72, 298 economy travel 272 316 Ecuador 73 education 15, 18, 82–5, 297 accelerated 57 lifelong learning 290 Egypt 2 electricity shortages 301 electronic camouflage 56 electronic surveillance 35 Elephant 244 email 18–19, 25, 53–4, 108 embedded intelligence 53, 154 EMF radiation 251 emotional capacity of robots 40, 60 enclosed resorts 273 energy 72, 75, 93 alternative 173 nuclear 74 solar 74 wind 74 enhancement surgery 249 entertainment 34, 121 environment 4, 10, 11, 14, 64, 75–6, 83, 93, 155, 171, 173, 183, 199, 219–20, 252, 256–7, 271, 292, 301 epigenetics 57 escapism 16, 32–3, 121 Estonia 85, 89 e-tagging 129–30 e-therapy 242 ethical bankruptcy 35 ethical investing 281 ethical tourism 259 ethics 22, 24, 41, 53, 78, 86, 132, 152, 194, 203, 213, 232, 238, 249–50, 258, 276, 281–2, 298–9 eugenics 252 Europe 11, 70, 72, 81, 91, 141, 150, 174–5, 182, 190, 192, 209 European Union 15, 139 euthanasia 238, 251 Everquest 33 e-voting 65 experience 224 extended financial families 144 extinction timeline 9 Facebook 37, 97, 107 face-recognition doors 57 fakes 32 family 36, 37 FUTURE FILES family loans 145 fantasy-related industries 32 farmaceuticals 179, 182 fast food 178, 183–4 fat taxes 190 fear 10, 34, 36, 38, 68, 150, 151, 305 female-only spaces 210–11, 257 feminization 84 financial crisis 38, 150–51, 223, 226, 301 financial services 123–53, 252 trends 123–5 fish farming 181 fixed-price eating 200 flashpacking 273 flat-tax system 85–6 Florida, Richard 36, 286, 292 flying cars 165 food 69–70, 72, 78–9, 162, 178–201 food anti-ageing 188 brain-enhancing 188 fast 178, 183–4 functional 179 growing your own 179, 192, 195 history 190–92 passports 200 slow 178, 193 tourism 273 trends 178–80 FoodExpert ID 182 food-miles 178, 193, 220 Ford 169, 176, 213, 279–80 forecasting 49 crime 86–7 war 49 Forrester Research 132 fractional ownership 168, 175, 176, 225 France 103, 147, 170, 189, 198, 267 Friedman, Thomas 278–9, 292 FriendFinder 32 Friends Reunited 22 frugality 224 functional food 179 Furedi, Frank 68 gaming 32–3, 70, 97, 111–12, 117, 130, 166, 262 Gap 217 Index gardening 27, 148 gas 176 GE Money 138, 145 gendered medicine 244–5 gene silencing 231 gene, crime 86 General Motors 157, 165 Generation X 41, 281 Generation Y 37, 41, 97, 106, 138, 141–2, 144, 202, 208, 276, 281, 292 generational power shifts 292 Genes Reunited 35 genetic enhancement 40, 48 history 35 modification 31, 182 testing 221 genetics 3, 10, 45, 251–2 genomic medicine 231 Germany 73, 147, 160, 170, 204–5, 216–17, 261, 267, 279, 291 Gimzewski, James 232 glamping 273 global currency 127 global warming 4, 47, 77, 93, 193, 234 globalization 3, 10, 15–16, 36–7, 63–7, 72–3, 75, 81–2, 88, 100, 125, 139, 143, 146, 170, 183, 189, 193–5, 221, 224, 226, 233–4, 247–8, 263, 275, 278–80, 292, 296, 299 GM 176 Google 22, 61, 121, 137, 293 gout 235 government 14, 18, 36, 63–95, 151 GPS 3, 15, 26, 50, 88, 138, 148, 209, 237, 262, 283 Grameen Bank 135 gravity tubes 57 green taxes 76 Greenpeace 172 GRIN technologies (genetics, robotics, internet, nanotechnology) 3, 10, 11 growing your own food 178, 192, 195 Gucci 221 Gulf States 125, 260, 268 H&M 217 habitual shopping 212 Handy, Charles 278 317 Happily 210 happiness 63–4, 71–2, 146, 260 health 15, 82, 178–9, 199 health monitoring 232, 236, 241 healthcare 2, 136, 144, 147–8, 154, 178–9, 183–4, 189–91, 228–53, 298; see also medicine trends 214–1534–7 Heinberg, Richard 74 Helm, Dieter 77 Heritage Foods 195 hikikomori 18 hive mind 45 holidays 31, 119; see also tourism holidays at home 255 cultural 259 dirt 236 Hollywood 33, 111–12 holographic displays 56 Home Equity Share 145 home baking 225 home-based microgeneration 64 home brewing 225 honesty 152 Hong Kong 267 hospitals 228, 241–3, 266 at home 228, 238, 240–42 hotels 19, 267 sleep 266 human cloning 23, 249 Hungary 247 hybrid humans 22 hydrogen power 64 hydrogen-powered cars 12, 31, 157, 173 Hyperactive Technologies 184 Hyundai 170 IBM 293 identities, multiple 35, 52 identity 64, 71 identity theft 88, 132 identity verification, two-way 132 immigration 151–2, 302 India 2, 10, 11, 70–72, 76, 78–9, 81, 92, 111, 125, 135, 139, 163, 174–5, 176, 247, 249–50, 254, 260, 270, 275, 279, 302 indirect taxation 86 318 individualism 36 Indonesia 2, 174 industrial robots 42 infinite content 96–7 inflation 151 information overlead 97, 120, 159, 285; see also too much information innovation 64, 81–2, 100, 175, 222, 238, 269, 277, 286–8, 291, 297, 299 innovation timeline 8 instant gratification 213 insurance 123, 138, 147–50, 154, 167, 191, 236, 250 pay-as-you-go 167 weather 264 intelligence 11 embedded 53, 154 implants 229 intelligent computers 23, 43 intelligent night vision 162–3 interaction, physical 22, 25, 97, 110, 118, 133–4, 215, 228, 243, 276, 304 interactive media 97, 105 intergenerational mortgages 140, 144–5 intermediaries 123, 135 internet 3, 10, 11, 17–18, 25, 68, 103, 108, 115–17, 124, 156, 240–41, 261, 270, 283, 289, 305 failure 301 impact on politics 93–4 sensory 56 interruption science 53 iPills 240 Iran 2, 69 Ishiguro, Hiroshi 55 Islamic fanaticism 16 Italy 92, 170, 198–9 iTunes 115, 130; see also Apple Japan 1, 18, 26, 28–9, 54–5, 63, 80–81, 114, 121, 128–9, 132, 140, 144–5, 147, 174, 186, 189, 192, 196, 198, 200, 209–10, 223, 240, 260, 264, 271, 279, 291 jetpacks 60 job security 292 journalism 96, 118 journalism, citizen 103–4, 107 joy-makers 57 FUTURE FILES Kaboodle 207 Kapor, Mitchell 45 Kenya 128 keys 28–9 Kindle 60, 121 Kramer, Peter 284 Kuhn, Thomas 281 Kurzweil, Ray 45 Kuwait 2 labor migration 290–91 labor shortages 3, 80–81, 289–90 Lanier, Jaron 47 laser shopping 212 leisure sickness 238 Let’s Dish 185 Lexus 157 libraries 121 Libya 73 life-caching 24, 107–8 lighting 158, 160 Like.com 216 limb farms 249 limited editions 216–17 live events 98, 110, 304 localization 10, 15–16, 116, 128, 170, 178, 189, 193, 195, 215, 220, 222–3, 224, 226, 255, 270, 297 location tagging 88 location-based marketing 116 longevity 188–9, 202 Longman, Philip 71 low cost 202, 219–22 luxury 202, 221, 225, 256, 260, 262, 265–6, 272 machinamas 112 machine-to-machine communication 56 marketing 115–16 location-based 116 now 116 prediction 116 Marks & Spencer 210 Maslow, Abraham 305–6 masstigue 223 materialism 37 Mayo Clinic 243 McDonald’s 130, 168, 180, 184 McKinsey 287 Index meaning, search for 16, 259, 282, 290, 305–6 MECU 132 media 96–122 democratization of 104, 108, 115 trends 96–8 medical outsourcing 247–8 medical tourism 2, 229, 247 medicine 188, 228–53; see also healthcare alternative 243–4 gendered 244–5 genomic 231 memory 229, 232, 239–40 memory loss 47 memory pills 231, 240 memory recovery 2, 228–9, 239 memory removal 29–30, 29, 240 Menicon 240 mental health 199 Meow Mix 216 Merriman, Jon 126 metabolomics 56 meta-materials 56 Metro 204–5 Mexico 2 micromedia 101 micro-payments 130, 150 Microsoft 137, 147, 293 Middle East 10, 11, 70, 81, 89, 119, 125, 129, 139, 174–5, 268, 301 migration 3, 11, 69–70, 78, 82, 234, 275, 290–91 boomerang 20 labor 290–91 Migros 215 military recruitment 69 military vehicles 158–9 mind-control toys 38 mindwipes 57 Mitsubishi 198, 279 mobile payments 123, 150 Modafinil 232 molecular biology 231 monetization 118 money 123–52 digital 12, 29, 123, 126–7, 129, 132, 138, 150, 191 monitoring, remote 154, 168, 228, 242 monolines 135, 137 319 mood sensitivity 41, 49, 154, 158, 164, 187–8 Morgan Stanley 127 mortality bonds 148 Mozilla Corp. 289 M-PESA 129 MTV 103 multigenerational families 20 multiple identities 35, 52 Murdoch, Rupert 109 muscular Christianity 16, 73 music industry 121 My-Food-Phone 242 MySpace 22, 25, 37, 46, 97, 107, 113 N11 nations (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, Vietnam) 2 nanoelectronics 56 nanomedicine 32 nanotechnology 3, 10, 23, 40, 44–5, 50, 157, 183, 232, 243, 286, 298 napcaps 56 narrowcasting 109 NASA 25, 53 nationalism 16, 70, 72–3, 139, 183, 298, 302 natural disasters 301 natural resources 2, 4, 11, 64, 298–9 Nearbynow 223 Nestlé 195 Netherlands 238 NetIntelligence 283 networkcar.com 154 networks 28, 166, 288 airborne 56 neural nets 49 neuronic whips 57 neuroscience 33, 48 Neville, Richard 58–9 New Economics Foundation 171 New Zealand 265, 269 newspapers 29, 102–9, 117, 119, 120 Nigeria 2, 73 Nike 23 nimbyism 63 no-frills 224 Nokia 61, 105 Norelift 189 320 Northern Rock 139–40 Norwich Union 167 nostalgia 16, 31–2, 51, 169–70, 179, 183, 199, 203, 225, 303 now marketing 116 nuclear annihilation 10, 91 nuclear energy 74 nutraceuticals 179, 182 Obama, Barack 92–3 obesity 75, 190–92, 199, 250–51 oceanic thermal converters 57 oil 69, 72–3, 93, 151, 174, 176, 272, 273, 301 Oman 2, 270 online relationships 38 organic computers 56 organic food 200, 226 osteoporosis 235 outsourcing 224, 292 Pakistan 2 pandemics 4, 10, 16, 59, 72, 128, 232, 234, 272, 295–7, 301 paper 37 parasite singles 145 passwords 52 pictorial 52 pathogens 233 patient simulators 247 patina 31 patriotism 63, 67, 299 pay-as-you-go cars 167–8 pay-as-you-go insurance 167 payments cellphone 129, 213 contactless 123, 150 micro- 130, 150 mobile 123, 150 pre- 123, 150 PayPal 124, 137 Pearson, Ian 44 performance-improving drugs 284–5 personal restraint 36 personal robots 42 personalization 19, 26, 56, 96–8, 100, 102–3, 106, 108–9, 120, 138, 149, 183, 205–6, 223, 244–5, 262, 267, 269 Peru 73 FUTURE FILES Peters, Tom 280 Pharmaca 244 pharmaceuticals 2, 33, 228, 237 Philippines 2, 212, 290 Philips 114 Philips, Michael 232–3 photographs 108 physical interaction 22, 25, 97, 110, 118, 133–4, 215, 228, 243, 276, 304 physicalization 96–7, 101–2, 106, 110, 120 pictorial passwords 52 piggy banks 151 Pink, Daniel 285 plagiarism 83 polarization 15–16, 285 politics 37, 63–95, 151–2 regional 63 trends 63–5 pop-up retail 216, 224 pornography 31 portability 178, 183–4 power shift eastwards 2, 10–11, 81, 252 Prada 205–6, 216 precision agriculture 181–2 precision healthcare 234–7 prediction marketing 116 predictions 37, 301–2 premiumization 223 pre-payments 123, 150 privacy 3, 15, 41, 50, 88, 154, 165–7, 205, 236, 249, 285, 295 digital 25, 97, 108 Procter & Gamble 105, 280 product sourcing 224 Prosper 124, 135 protectionism 67, 139, 156, 220, 226, 301 economic 10, 15, 72, 299 provenance 178, 193, 226 proximity indicators 32 PruHealth 149 psychological neoteny 52 public ownership 92 public transport 171 purposeful shopping 212 Qatar 2 quality 96–7, 98, 101, 109 Index quantum mechanics 56 quantum wires 56 quiet materials 56 radiation, EMF 251 radio 117 randominoes 57 ranking 34, 83, 109, 116, 134, 207 Ranking Ranqueen 186 reality mining 51 Really Cool Foods 185 rebalancing 37 recession 139–40, 202, 222 recognition 36, 304 refrigerators 197–8 refuge 121 regeneration 233 regional food 200 regional politics 63 regionality 178, 192–3 regulation 124, 137, 143 REI 207 Reid, Morris 90 relationships, online 38 religion 16, 58 remote diagnosis 228 remote monitoring 154, 168, 228, 242 renting 225 reputation 34–5 resistance to technology 51 resorts, enclosed 273 resource shortages 11, 15, 146, 155, 178, 194, 254, 300 resources, natural 2, 4, 11, 64, 73–4, 143, 298–9 respect 36, 304 restaurants 186–8 retail 20–21, 202–27, 298 pop-up 216, 224 stealth 215 theater 214 trends 202–3 Revkin, Andy 77 RFID 3, 24, 50, 121, 126, 149, 182, 185, 192, 196, 205 rickets 232 risk 15, 124, 134, 138, 141, 149–50, 162, 167, 172, 191, 265, 299–300, 303 Ritalin 232 321 road pricing 166 Robertson, Peter 49 robogoats 55 robot department store 209 Robot Rules 44 robotic assistants 54, 206 concierges 268 financial advisers 131–2 lobsters 55 pest control 57 soldiers 41, 55, 60 surgery 35, 41, 249 robotics 3, 10, 41, 44–5, 60, 238, 275, 285–6, 292, 297 robots 41, 54–5, 131, 237, 249 childcare 57 emotional capacity of 40, 60 industrial 42 personal 42 security 209 therapeutic 41, 54 Russia 2, 69, 72, 75, 80, 89, 92–3, 125, 174, 232, 254, 270, 295, 302 safety 32, 36, 151, 158–9, 172–3, 182, 192, 196 Sainsbury’s 215 Salt 187 sanctuary tourism 273 satellite tracking 166–7 Saudi Arabia 2, 69 Schwartz, Barry 186 science 13, 16, 40–62, 300 interruption 53 trends 40–42 scramble suits 57 scrapbooking 25, 108, 225 Sears Roebuck 137 seasonality 178, 193–4 second-hand goods 224 Second Life 133, 207–8 securitization 124, 140 security 16, 31, 151 security robots 209 self-driving cars 165 self-medication 242 self-publishing 103, 113–14 self-reliance 35, 75 self-repairing roads 57 322 self-replicating machines 23, 44 Selfridges 214 sensor motes 15, 50, 196 sensory internet 56 Sharia-based investment 125 Shop24 209 shopping 202–27 habitual 212 laser 212 malls 211–5 purposeful 212 slow 213 social 207 Shopping 2.0 224 short-wave scalpels 57 silicon photonics 56 simplicity 169–70, 179, 186, 202, 218, 224, 226, 272 Singapore 241 single-person households 19–20, 202–3, 208–9, 221, 244, 298, 304 skills shortage 293, 302 sky shields 57 sleep 159–60, 188, 228, 231, 246–7, 265 sleep debt 96, 266 sleep hotels 266 sleep surrogates 57 slow food 178, 193 slow shopping 213 slow travel 273 smart devices 26–7, 28, 32, 35, 44, 50, 56, 57, 164, 206, 207 smart dust 3, 15, 50, 196 smartisans 20 Smartmart 209 snakebots 55 social networks 97, 107, 110, 120, 133, 217, 261 social shopping 207 society 13, 15–16, 17–37 trends 15–16 Sodexho 193 solar energy 74 Sony 114, 121 South Africa 84, 149, 242 South America 82, 270 South Korea 2, 103, 128–9 space ladders 56 space mirrors 47 space tourism 271, 273 FUTURE FILES space tugs 57 speed 164, 202, 209, 245, 296–7 spirituality 16, 22, 282, 298, 306 spot knowledge 47 spray-on surgical gloves 57 St James’s Ethics Centre 282 stagflation 139 starch-based plastics 64 stealth retail 215 stealth taxation 86 Sterling, Bruce 55 storytelling 203 Strayer, David 161 street signs 162–3 stress 32, 96, 235, 243, 245–6, 258–9, 265, 257–9, 275, 277, 283–5 stress-control clothing 57 stupidity 151, 302 Stylehive 207 Sudan 73 suicide tourism 236 Super Suppers 185 supermarkets 135–6, 184–6, 188, 191–2, 194, 202–3, 212, 215, 218–19, 224, 229 surgery 2, 31 anti-ageing 2, 237 enhancement 249 Surowiecki, James 45 surveillance 35, 41 sustainability 4, 37, 74, 181, 193–5, 203, 281, 288, 298–9 Sweden 84 swine flu 38, 251, 272 Switzerland 168, 210, 215 synthetic biology 56 Taco Bell 184 Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model 49 tagging, location 86, 88 Taiwan 81 talent, war for 275, 279, 293; see also labor shortages Target 216 Tasmania 267 Tata Motors 174, 176 taxation 85–6, 92, 93 carbon 76, 172 conscientious objection 86 Index fat 190 flat 85–6 green 76 indirect 86 stealth 86 Tchibo 217 technology 3, 14–16, 18, 22, 26, 28, 32, 37, 40–62, 74–5, 82–3, 96, 119, 132, 147–8, 154, 157, 160, 162, 165–7, 178, 182, 195–8, 208, 221, 229, 237, 242–3, 249, 256, 261, 265–6, 268, 275–6, 280, 283–4, 292, 296–7, 300 refuseniks 30, 51, 97 trends 40–42 telemedicine 228, 238, 242 telepathy 29 teleportation 56 television 21, 96, 108, 117, 119 terrorism 67, 91, 108, 150, 262–3, 267, 272, 295–6, 301 Tesco 105, 135–6, 185, 206, 215, 219, 223 Thailand 247, 290 therapeutic robots 41, 54 thermal imaging 232 things that won’t change 10, 303–6 third spaces 224 ThisNext 207 thrift 224 Tik Tok Easy Shop 209 time scarcity 30, 96, 102, 178, 184–6, 218, 255 time shifting 96, 110, 116 time stamps 50 timeline, extinction 9 timeline, innovation 8 timelines 7 tired all the time 246 tobacco industry 251 tolerance 120 too much choice (TMC) 29, 202, 218–19 too much information (TMI) 29, 51, 53, 202, 229; see also information overload tourism 254–74 cultural 273 ethical 259 food 273 323 local 273 medical 2, 229, 247 sanctuary 273 space 271, 273 suicide 238 tribal 262 Tourism Concern 259 tourist quotas 254, 271 Toyota 48–9, 157 toys, mind-control 38 traceability 195 trading down 224 transparency 3, 15, 143, 152, 276, 282, 299 transport 15, 154–77, 298 public 155, 161 trends 154–6 transumerism 223 travel 2, 3, 11, 148, 254–74 economy 272 luxury 272 slow 273 trends 254–6 trend maps 6–7 trends 1, 5–7, 10, 13 financial services 123–5 food 178–80 healthcare 228–9 media 96–8 politics 63–5 retail 202–3 science and technology 40–42 society 15–16 transport 154–6 travel 254–6 work 275–7 tribal tourism 262 tribalism 15–16, 63, 127–8, 183, 192, 220, 260 trust 82, 133, 137, 139, 143, 192, 203, 276, 282–3 tunnels 171 Turing test 45 Turing, Alan 44 Turkey 2, 200, 247 Twitter 60, 120 two-way identity verification 132 UAE 2 UFOs 58 324 UK 19–20, 72, 76, 84, 86, 90–91, 100, 102–3, 105, 128–9, 132, 137, 139–42, 147–9, 150, 163, 167–8, 170–71, 175, 185, 195–6, 199, 200, 206, 210, 214–16, 238, 259, 267–8, 278–9, 284, 288 uncertainty 16, 30, 34, 52, 172, 199, 246, 263, 300, 303 unemployment 151 Unilever 195 University of Chicago 245–6 urban rental companies 176 urbanization 11, 18–19, 78, 84, 155, 233 Uruguay 200 US 1, 11, 19–21, 23, 55–6, 63, 67, 69, 72, 75, 77, 80–83, 86, 88–90, 92, 104–5, 106, 121, 129–33, 135, 139–42, 144, 147, 149, 150, 151, 162, 167, 169–71, 174, 185, 190–3, 195, 205–6, 209, 211, 213, 216, 218, 220, 222–3, 237–8, 240–8, 250, 260, 262, 267–8, 275, 279–80, 282–4, 287, 291 user-generated content (UGC) 46, 97, 104, 289 utility 224 values 36, 152 vending machines 209 Venezuela 69, 73 verbal signatures 132 VeriChip 126 video on demand 96 Vietnam 2, 290 Vino 100 113 Virgin Atlantic 261 virtual adultery 33 banks 134 economy 130–31 protests 65 reality 70 sex 32 stores 206–8 vacations 32, 261 worlds 157, 213, 255, 261, 270, 305 Vocation Vacations 259–60 Vodafone 137 voice recognition 41 voice-based internet search 56 voicelifts 2, 237 FUTURE FILES Volkswagen 175 voluntourism 259 Volvo 164 voting 3, 68, 90–91 Walgreens 244 Wal-Mart 105, 136–7, 215, 219–20, 223, 244, 282 war 68–9, 72 war for talent 275, 279; see also labor shortages war forecasting 49 water 69–70, 74, 77–9, 199 wearable computers 55 weather 64 weather insurance 264 Web 2.0 93, 224 Weinberg, Peter 125 wellbeing 2, 183, 188, 199 white flight 20 Wikipedia 46, 60, 104 wild swimming 273 Wilson, Edward O. 74 wind energy 74 wine producers 200 wisdom of idiots 47 Wizard 145 work 275–94 trends 275–94 work/life balance 64, 71, 260, 277, 289, 293 worldphone 19 xenophobia 16, 63 YouTube 46, 103, 107, 112 Zara 216–17 Zipcar 167 Zopa 124, 134


pages: 587 words: 117,894

Cybersecurity: What Everyone Needs to Know by P. W. Singer, Allan Friedman

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4chan, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blood diamonds, borderless world, Brian Krebs, business continuity plan, Chelsea Manning, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, Edward Snowden, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fault tolerance, global supply chain, Google Earth, Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, Julian Assange, Khan Academy, M-Pesa, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, packet switching, Peace of Westphalia, pre–internet, profit motive, RAND corporation, ransomware, RFC: Request For Comment, risk tolerance, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, Steve Jobs, Stuxnet, uranium enrichment, We are Anonymous. We are Legion, web application, WikiLeaks, zero day

Mobile technology can transform the world by putting data directly into our hands, but what makes it even more powerful is the number of hands the devices reach, especially outside the developed world. Whereas the mobile phone started as an expensive device that only those rich drug dealers on Miami Vice could afford, now it spreads computing power across the income spectrum, with immense consequences. In East Africa, mobile technology has revolutionized banking and commerce; anyone with a mobile phone can pay anyone else with a phone using M-Pesa, which doesn’t require access to a bank or credit system. This growing role in the developing world economy, however, means that security becomes even more important, and unfortunately it becomes most pressing in places least able to afford high-end security solutions. This demographic shift in the makeup of those who consider cyberspace home points to a fourth important trend when considering the future of cybersecurity.


pages: 387 words: 112,868

Digital Gold: Bitcoin and the Inside Story of the Misfits and Millionaires Trying to Reinvent Money by Nathaniel Popper

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4chan, Airbnb, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, banking crisis, bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, capital controls, Colonization of Mars, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Extropian, fiat currency, Fractional reserve banking, Jeff Bezos, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, life extension, litecoin, lone genius, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, Occupy movement, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, Ponzi scheme, price stability, Satoshi Nakamoto, Silicon Valley, Simon Singh, Skype, slashdot, smart contracts, Startup school, stealth mode startup, the payments system, transaction costs, tulip mania, WikiLeaks

Wences was somewhat taken aback, but this was not the first time he had been challenged by a powerful person. He quickly said that Bitcoin could indeed be used anonymously—but so could cash. And Bitcoin services could easily be set up so that users were not anonymous. He then spoke directly to the work that Gates was doing, and noted that the foundation had been pushing people in poor countries into expensive digital services that came with lots of fees each time they were used. The famous M-Pesa system allowed Kenyans to hold and spend money on their cell phones, but charged a fee each time. “You are spending billions to make poor people poorer,” Wences said. Gates didn’t just roll over. He vigorously defended the work his foundation had already done, but Gates was less hostile than he had been a few moments earlier, and seemed to evince a certain respect for Wences’s chutzpah. Wences saw the crowd that was watching the conversation, and knew he had to be careful about antagonizing Bill Gates, especially in front of others.


pages: 483 words: 134,377

The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor by William Easterly

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air freight, Andrei Shleifer, battle of ideas, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, Carmen Reinhart, clean water, colonial rule, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, discovery of the americas, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, Francisco Pizarro, fundamental attribution error, germ theory of disease, greed is good, income per capita, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, John Snow's cholera map, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, M-Pesa, microcredit, Monroe Doctrine, oil shock, place-making, Ponzi scheme, risk/return, road to serfdom, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, urban planning, urban renewal, Washington Consensus, World Values Survey, young professional

Erik Eckermann, World History of the Automobile, trans. Peter Albrecht (Warrendal, PA: Society of Automotive Engineers, 2001), 16. This is the source for much of this section. 39. Ibid., 168. 40. Wanda James, Driving from Japan: Japanese Cars in America (Jefferson, NC: Mc-Farland and Company, 2007), 37–38. 41. Data from World Bank World Development Indicators. 42. Ignacio Mas and Daniel Radcliffe, “Mobile Payments Go Viral: M-PESA in Kenya,” in Yes Africa Can: Success Stories from a Dynamic Continent, eds. P. Chuhan-Pole and M. Angwafo, World Bank, August 2011; http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/0,,contentMDK:22551641~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:258644,00.html, accessed September 12, 2013. 43. “Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa: Sustaining the Expansion,” International Monetary Fund, World Economic and Financial Surveys, October 2011, 50; http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2011/afr/eng/sreo1011.pdf, accessed September 12, 2013. 44.


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Future Crimes: Everything Is Connected, Everyone Is Vulnerable and What We Can Do About It by Marc Goodman

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23andMe, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, airport security, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bill Joy: nanobots, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, borderless world, Brian Krebs, business process, butterfly effect, call centre, Chelsea Manning, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, data acquisition, data is the new oil, Dean Kamen, disintermediation, don't be evil, double helix, Downton Abbey, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Filter Bubble, Firefox, Flash crash, future of work, game design, Google Chrome, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Gordon Gekko, high net worth, High speed trading, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, hypertext link, illegal immigration, impulse control, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Harrison: Longitude, Jony Ive, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kuwabatake Sanjuro: assassination market, Law of Accelerating Returns, Lean Startup, license plate recognition, litecoin, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, mobile money, more computing power than Apollo, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, national security letter, natural language processing, obamacare, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, offshore financial centre, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, pre–internet, RAND corporation, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, refrigerator car, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rodney Brooks, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, security theater, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, strong AI, Stuxnet, supply-chain management, technological singularity, telepresence, telepresence robot, Tesla Model S, The Wisdom of Crowds, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, uranium enrichment, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Wave and Pay, We are Anonymous. We are Legion, web application, WikiLeaks, Y Combinator, zero day

One area in which this will be most clearly seen is in the disappearance of physical currency. The future of money is mobile and virtual, and a bevy of new sensors and apps are on track to replace your wallet and the cash in your pocket. In fact, some mobile phone providers, such as Safaricom in Africa, dominate the overall payment space. In Kenya, for example, 25 percent of the nation’s GNP is actually transacted on Safaricom’s M-PESA payment system. Mobile money payment systems, which did not even exist at the turn of the last century, are now available in over seventy countries and are used to move billions of dollars every month. In particular, they have been incredibly useful in getting previously “unbanked” populations in the developing world access to the global world of commerce with significant positive impact for local economies.