Dunning–Kruger effect

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Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann

Abraham Maslow, Abraham Wald, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, anti-pattern, Anton Chekhov, Apollo 13, Apple Newton, autonomous vehicles, bank run, barriers to entry, Bayesian statistics, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, business process, butterfly effect, Cal Newport, Clayton Christensen, cognitive dissonance, commoditize, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark pattern, David Attenborough, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, discounted cash flows, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, Dunning–Kruger effect, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, effective altruism, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, fake news, fear of failure, feminist movement, Filter Bubble, framing effect, friendly fire, fundamental attribution error, Goodhart's law, Gödel, Escher, Bach, heat death of the universe, hindsight bias, housing crisis, if you see hoof prints, think horses—not zebras, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, illegal immigration, imposter syndrome, incognito mode, income inequality, information asymmetry, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John Nash: game theory, karōshi / gwarosa / guolaosi, lateral thinking, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, LuLaRoe, Lyft, mail merge, Mark Zuckerberg, meta-analysis, Metcalfe’s law, Milgram experiment, minimum viable product, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Network effects, nocebo, nuclear winter, offshore financial centre, p-value, Paradox of Choice, Parkinson's law, Paul Graham, peak oil, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, placebo effect, Potemkin village, power law, precautionary principle, prediction markets, premature optimization, price anchoring, principal–agent problem, publication bias, recommendation engine, remote working, replication crisis, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Salesforce, school choice, Schrödinger's Cat, selection bias, Shai Danziger, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, Streisand effect, sunk-cost fallacy, survivorship bias, systems thinking, The future is already here, The last Blockbuster video rental store is in Bend, Oregon, The Present Situation in Quantum Mechanics, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, uber lyft, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, urban planning, vertical integration, Vilfredo Pareto, warehouse robotics, WarGames: Global Thermonuclear War, When a measure becomes a target, wikimedia commons

As a coach, you should keep in mind the Dunning-Kruger effect and be aware of where your team members are along the curve. When you are working with people who have less expertise, help them properly recognize their level of abilities so they don’t become overconfident, but at the same time praise their learning progression so they don’t become discouraged. It’s a balancing act. As they get closer to the middle of the curve, they will need more and more encouragement as their confidence plummets. And don’t forget to also keep the model in mind when you are learning a skill yourself. While the Dunning-Kruger effect explains what happens psychologically across the whole learning curve, it is often used to refer to just the first spike, i.e., the phenomenon where low-ability people think they are high-ability, unable to recognize their own skill level (or lack thereof) in a particular area.

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First is impostor syndrome, in which someone is plagued with the feeling that they are an impostor, fearing being exposed as a fraud, even though in reality they are not. Surveys indicate that 70 percent of people become inflicted with impostor syndrome at some point in their careers. Have you? Dunning-Kruger Effect When people fall victim to impostor syndrome, they dismiss their successes as luck or deception and focus on their failures or fear of failure. This constant focus on failure can lead to high stress and anxiety, and negative behaviors like overexertion, perfectionism, aggression, or defeatism.

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Explain that small failures are expected when you are operating out of your comfort zone. This explanation can help people recharacterize mistakes as learning opportunities. Connect them with other peers or mentors who have faced impostor syndrome. A second model to consider is the Dunning-Kruger effect, named after social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger. This model describes the confidence people experience over time as they move from being a novice to being an expert. You usually make a lot of progress when you start out learning something, because there is so much new to learn.

The Intelligence Trap: Revolutionise Your Thinking and Make Wiser Decisions by David Robson

active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Atul Gawande, autism spectrum disorder, availability heuristic, behavioural economics, classic study, cognitive bias, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, deep learning, deliberate practice, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, Dunning–Kruger effect, fake news, Flynn Effect, framing effect, fundamental attribution error, illegal immigration, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, knowledge economy, Large Hadron Collider, lone genius, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, obamacare, Parler "social media", pattern recognition, post-truth, price anchoring, reality distortion field, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, sunk-cost fallacy, tacit knowledge, TED Talk, the scientific method, theory of mind, traveling salesman, ultimatum game, Y2K, Yom Kippur War

Not only did the participants get better at what they did; their increased knowledge also helped them to understand their limitations.7 Since Dunning and Kruger first published their study in 1999, the finding has been replicated many times, across many different cultures.8 One survey of thirty-four countries – from Australia to Germany, and Brazil to South Korea – examined the maths skills of fifteen-year-old students; once again, the least able were often the most over-confident.9 Unsurprisingly, the press have been quick to embrace the ‘Dunning?Kruger Effect’, declaring that it is the reason why ‘losers have delusions of grandeur’ and ‘why incompetents think they are awesome’ and citing it as the cause of President Donald Trump’s more egotistical statements.10 The Dunning-Kruger Effect should have an upside, though. Although it may be alarming when someone who is highly incompetent but confident reaches a position of power, it does at least reassure us that education and training work as we would hope, improving not just our knowledge but our metacognition and self-awareness.

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Lee, C. (2016), ‘Revisiting Why Incompetents Think They Are Awesome’, Ars Technica, 4 November 2016, https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/11/revisiting-why-incompetents-think-theyre-awesome/. Flam, F. (2017), ‘Trump’s “Dangerous Disability”? The Dunning?Kruger Effect’, Bloomberg, 12 May 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-12/trump-s-dangerous-disability-it-s-the-dunning-kruger-effect. 11 Fisher, M. and Keil, F.C. (2016), ‘The Curse of Expertise: When More Knowledge Leads to Miscalibrated Explanatory Insight’, Cognitive Science, 40(5), 1251?69. 12 Son, L.K. and Kornell, N. (2010), ‘The Virtues of Ignorance’, Behavioural Processes, 83(2), 207?

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The legal system, for instance, is notoriously plagued by bias – and in response to this research, the American Judges Association has now issued a white paper that advocated mindfulness as one of the key strategies to improve judicial decision making, while also advising each judge to take a moment to ‘read the dials’ and interrogate their feelings in detail, just as neuroscientists and psychologists such as Feldman Barrett are suggesting.50 Ultimately, these findings could change our understanding of what it means to be an expert. In the past, psychologists had described four distinct stages in the learning curve. The complete beginner is unconsciously incompetent – she does not even know what she doesn’t know (potentially leading to the over-confidence of the Dunning?Kruger effect we saw in Chapter 3). After a short while, however, she will understand the skills she lacks, and what she must do to learn them; she is consciously incompetent. With effort, she can eventually become consciously competent – she can solve most problems, but she has to think a lot about the decisions she is making.

Know Thyself by Stephen M Fleming

Abraham Wald, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, AlphaGo, autism spectrum disorder, autonomous vehicles, availability heuristic, backpropagation, citation needed, computer vision, confounding variable, data science, deep learning, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, Douglas Hofstadter, Dunning–Kruger effect, Elon Musk, Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science, fake news, global pandemic, higher-order functions, index card, Jeff Bezos, l'esprit de l'escalier, Lao Tzu, lifelogging, longitudinal study, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, patient HM, Pierre-Simon Laplace, power law, prediction markets, QWERTY keyboard, recommendation engine, replication crisis, self-driving car, side project, Skype, Stanislav Petrov, statistical model, theory of mind, Thomas Bayes, traumatic brain injury

Cross (1977); Alicke et al. (1995). In a phenomenon known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, after its discoverers, overconfidence biases are most pronounced in those who perform poorly (Dunning, 2012; Kruger and Dunning, 1999). Kruger and Dunning propose that low performers suffer from a metacognitive error and not a bias in responding (Ehrlinger et al., 2008). However, it is still not clear whether the Dunning-Kruger effect is due to a difference in metacognitive sensitivity, bias, or a mixture of both. See Tal Yarkoni, “What the Dunning-Kruger Effect Is and Isn’t,” [citation needed] (blog), July 7, 2010, https://talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-and-isnt; and Simons (2013). 10.

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See Tal Yarkoni, “What the Dunning-Kruger Effect Is and Isn’t,” [citation needed] (blog), July 7, 2010, https://talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-kruger-effect-is-and-isnt; and Simons (2013). 10. Ais et al. (2016); Song et al. (2011). 11. Mirels, Greblo, and Dean (2002); Rouault, Seow, Gillan, and Fleming (2018); Hoven et al. (2019). 12. Fleming et al. (2014); Rouault, Seow, Gillan, and Fleming (2018); Woolgar, Parr, and Cusack (2010); Roca et al. (2011); Toplak, West, and Stanovich (2011); but see Lemaitre et al. (2018). 13. Fleming et al. (2015); Siedlecka, Paulewicz, and Wierzchoń (2016); Pereira et al. (2020); Gajdos et al. (2019). 14. Logan and Crump (2010). 15. Charles, King, and Dehaene (2014); Nieuwenhuis et al. (2001); Ullsperger et al. (2010). 16.

The Knowledge Illusion by Steven Sloman

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Air France Flight 447, attribution theory, bitcoin, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, combinatorial explosion, computer age, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, CRISPR, crowdsourcing, Dmitri Mendeleev, driverless car, Dunning–Kruger effect, Elon Musk, Ethereum, Flynn Effect, Great Leap Forward, Gregor Mendel, Hernando de Soto, Higgs boson, hindsight bias, hive mind, indoor plumbing, Isaac Newton, John von Neumann, libertarian paternalism, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, meta-analysis, Nick Bostrom, obamacare, Peoples Temple, prediction markets, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, Rodney Brooks, Rosa Parks, seminal paper, single-payer health, speech recognition, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Wisdom of Crowds, Vernor Vinge, web application, Whole Earth Review, Y Combinator

Ray Dalio quote: Interview with Fareed Zakaria, April 27, 2015. CONCLUSION: APPRAISING IGNORANCE AND ILLUSION ignorance documentation: D. Dunning (2011). “The Dunning-Kruger Effect: On Being Ignorant of One’s Own Ignorance.” Ed. J. M. Olson and M. P. Zanna, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 44: 247–296. “We’re not very good”: David Dunning in interview with Errol Morris, New York Times Opinionator, June 20, 2010. Dunning-Kruger effect: J. Kruger and D. Dunning (1999). “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments.”

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If you’re relatively accident free, then you might think you’re a pretty darn good driver because you’re unaware that some people can also drive in the city, in emergency situations in all kinds of weather, in mud, on ice, and even on the beach. Relative to people with such broad experience driving, your skills may be quite limited. Expertise means that you have skills as well as knowledge about what constitutes being skilled. Ignorance means you have neither. This pairing explains what is commonly known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, that those who perform the worst overrate their own skills the most. The effect is found by giving a group of people a task to do and then asking them how well they think they’ve done on the task. Poor performers overestimate how well they’ve done; strong performers often underestimate their performance.

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See chaos theory consequences vs. values arguments, 182–87 contribution of individuals example of group thinking, 122 Copernicus, Nicolaus, 198–99 counterfactual thought, 64–65 Galileo’s experiments with dropping different weights, 65–66 imagining scenarios to figure out likely outcomes, 66 crowdsourcing expertise, 146–50 ox’s weight example, 148 Pallokerho-35 Finnish soccer club example, 148 prediction market, 149 user ratings, 148 crows ability to reason diagnostically, 62 CRT (Cognitive Reflection Test), 80–84 bat and ball problem, 81 lily pad problem, 81–82 machines and widgets problem, 82 crystallized intelligence, 202 cult communities, 260 cultural values and cognition, 160–63 reconciling conflicting beliefs, 161–62 “Science Mike” (Mike McHargue), 160–62 cumulative culture, 117–18 curse of knowledge, 128, 244 curving bullets example of physics, 69–70 Dalio, Ray, 253 Damasio, Antonio, 103 decentralized collaborative activity, 149–50 Bitcoin, 150 block chain technology, 150 Ethereum, 150 decision-making, 103–05, 240, 241, 248–49, 250–53 deficit model of science attitudes, 157–60 Dehghani, Morteza, 185–86 Descartes, René, 87 de Soto, Hernando, 244–45 DeVito, Danny, 45–46 Dewey, John, 216 diagnostic reasoning, 58–62 crow example, 62 lethargy example, 59–61 diSessa, Andrea, 71 disgust, feelings of, 104–05 division of cognitive labor, 14, 109–11, 120–21, 128–29 area of expertise example, 120 car analogy example, 207–08 in the field of science, 222–23 household finances, 247 wine expert example, 120 dogs Cassie example, 49–50 Pavlovian conditioning, 50–51 doorway example of optic flow, 99–100 driving ability example of ignorance, 257–58 Dunbar, Robin, 113 Dunning, David, 257–58 Dunning-Kruger effect, 258 Eastwood, Clint, 172 economics of science, 227–28 education application of classroom learning, 216–17 becoming a car mechanic example, 219–20 expressing desire to learn that which is unknown, 221 financial issues, 240–41 history of Spain example, 220 Ignorance course, 221 illusion of comprehension, 217–18 just-in-time, 251–52 learning to accept what you don’t know, 220–21 mathematical abilities of Brazilian children, 215–16 peer, 230–31 purpose of, 219–21 teaching science, 222, 225–32 Einstein, Albert, 199 embodied intelligence, 91–93 embodiment, 102 emotional responses that influence decision-making, 103–05, 240 engagement as a human concept, 117 environment, knowledge of your personal, 94–96 Ethereum, 150 expertise and crowdsourcing, 146–50 in scientific matters, 226–27 to understand community issues, 188–89 explanation foes and fiends, 237–39 advertising, 239–40, 241–42 Band-Aids example, 237–38 skin care example, 239–40 vesting service letter example, 243–44 explorers’ self-confidence, 263 eyesight.

The Internet Is a Playground by David Thorne

anti-globalists, Dunning–Kruger effect, Large Hadron Collider, late fees, Naomi Klein, peer-to-peer, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs

Remember to cut inside of the line to ensure the right size. Step 6 Insert the packet into the hole you have just cut until the bevel is flush with the picture. Step 7 And there you are. Your homemade fine art scanning device is complete. Scott Dunning-Kruger effect poster boy When not appearing as poster boy for the Dunning-Kruger effect, Scott divides his time between eating and “writing” on his beige blog, attempting to prove to the world that everything I write is fake. From: Scott Redmond Date: Friday 17 September 2010 2:11 p.m. To: David Thorne Subject: Fake Davey Davey Davey.

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Kilda Swamp Shannon asks a favor after denying me petty cash Hello, my name is Lucius, and I am a straight man Love letters from Dick, Rove’s biggest fan Life-size Lucius™ free cutout doll Guns, baseball caps, and pickup trucks: 3 weeks in the USA Belly messages pretending to be a girl on the Internet Mr. Carganovsky extreme stuntman to the max Mr. Carganovsky’s lawyer writes a letter That Tuesday and why I was not at work Hello, my name is Jason, and I own a MacBook Pro Write me a speech and don’t be a dickhead about it Dear Jason a guide to fine art scanning Scott Dunning-Kruger effect poster boy Hello, my name is John, and I ride a bicycle Hello, my name is Josh, and I live in New Zealand Bees are attracted to yellow—it is a scientific fact Barnesyfan67 online dating profile Lesley the adventurous, outdoors type JEREMY P. TARCHER/PENGUIN Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, USA Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario M4P 2Y3, Canada (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.)

Evil by Design: Interaction Design to Lead Us Into Temptation by Chris Nodder

4chan, affirmative action, Amazon Mechanical Turk, cognitive dissonance, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Donald Trump, drop ship, Dunning–Kruger effect, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, game design, gamification, haute couture, Ian Bogost, jimmy wales, Jony Ive, Kickstarter, late fees, lolcat, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, Monty Hall problem, Netflix Prize, Nick Leeson, Occupy movement, Paradox of Choice, pets.com, price anchoring, recommendation engine, Rory Sutherland, Silicon Valley, Stanford prison experiment, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, sunk-cost fallacy, TED Talk, telemarketer, Tim Cook: Apple, trickle-down economics, upwardly mobile

This behavior—unskilled individuals suffering from illusive superiority, whereas skilled individuals suffer from illusive inferiority—is now known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Dunning and Kruger’s studies used tests of logical reasoning, grammar, and humor, but the same effect holds across other domains, at least for a Western audience. There are several online activities that are open to anyone to participate in, but which require some serious skills to actually succeed at. One of the most obvious areas is online financial trading. Although it’s probably true that you could observe the Dunning-Kruger effect in action with simple stock trading sites, the most fun occurs on sites that broker trades in the derivatives market: options and futures.

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By warping or removing our capacity to use these reference points of what’s rationally correct, companies can set new anchor points for us that make us think it’s OK to do things we’d otherwise consider spiteful or selfish. Another way that people are separated from reality is in terms of the level of mastery they feel. Counterintuitively, as the Dunning-Kruger effect demonstrates, it takes at least a degree of skill to know that you aren’t very skillful. Without understanding their true level of skill, people can easily get drawn in to working with systems they do not truly understand. It’s easy for companies to convince us that we can win by downplaying luck and emphasizing the skill and mastery we already think we have, even when we don’t.

Going Dark: The Secret Social Lives of Extremists by Julia Ebner

23andMe, 4chan, Airbnb, anti-communist, anti-globalists, augmented reality, Ayatollah Khomeini, Bellingcat, Big Tech, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, Cambridge Analytica, citizen journalism, cognitive dissonance, Comet Ping Pong, crisis actor, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, deepfake, disinformation, Donald Trump, Dunning–Kruger effect, Elon Musk, fake news, false flag, feminist movement, game design, gamification, glass ceiling, Google Earth, Greta Thunberg, information security, job satisfaction, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, Network effects, off grid, OpenAI, Overton Window, pattern recognition, pre–internet, QAnon, RAND corporation, ransomware, rising living standards, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, social intelligence, Social Justice Warrior, SQL injection, Steve Bannon, Steve Jobs, Transnistria, WikiLeaks, zero day

The same study found that individuals who think that bin Laden was already dead when US special forces raided his Abbottabad compound in 2011 are also more likely to believe that he is still alive.26 These individuals possess what psychologists call a ‘conspiracy mentality’: if you believe in one conspiracy theory, you are also more likely to believe in other conspiracy theories, even if they contradict one another.27 People with fewer years of education are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. If you know very little about a subject, you are more likely to have high confidence in your knowledge and judgement. This is known as the Dunning–Kruger Effect, or ‘Mount Stupid’.28 (Il)logical deductions can of course go on and on and on, rendering conspiracy theories bottomless: there are even conspiracy theories about conspiracy theories. To the Swiss-German historian Daniele Ganser the term ‘conspiracy theorist’ is a ‘political battle cry’ invented by the CIA – an unlikely scenario considering that Austrian-born philosopher Karl Popper used the term in 1940, seven years before the CIA was created.29 On 8chan, users can post questions to Q, as if approaching an oracle:30 What is the big secret in Antarctica?

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Sutton, ‘Dead and alive: Belief in contradictory conspiracy theories’, Social Psychology and Personality Science 3, 2012, pp. 767–73. 27S. Moscovici, ‘The conspiracy mentality’, in C. F. Graumann and S. Moscovici (eds), Changing Conceptions of Conspiracy (New York: Springer, 1987), pp. 151–69. 28David Dunning, ‘Chapter Five: The Dunning–Kruger Effect: On Being Ignorant of One’s Own Ignorance’, Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 44, 2011, pp. 247–96. Available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123855220000056. 29See https://twitter.com/danieleganser/status/824953776280854528?lang=en. 30See https://8ch.net//qresearch//res/4279775.html#4280231. 31See https://www.qanon.pub. 32Kyle Feldscher, ‘QAnon-believing “conspiracy analyst” meets Trump in the White House’, CNN, 25 August 2018.

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Finsbury Mosque attack Israel here, here, here, here, here Israel Defense Forces here, here Jackson, Michael here jahiliyya here Jakarta attacks here Jamaah Ansharud Daulah (JAD) here Japanese anime here Jemaah Islamiyah here Jesus Christ here Jewish numerology here Jews here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here see also anti-Semitism; ZOG JFG World here jihadi brides here, here JihadWatch here Jobs, Steve here Johnson, Boris here Jones, Alex here Jones, Ron here Junge Freiheit here Jurgenson, Nathan here JustPasteIt here Kafka, Franz here Kampf der Niebelungen here, here Kapustin, Denis ‘Nikitin’ here Kassam, Raheem here Kellogg’s here Kennedy, John F. here, here Kennedy family here Kessler, Jason here, here Khomeini, Ayataollah here Kim Jong-un here Kohl, Helmut here Köhler, Daniel here Kronen Zeitung here Kronos banking Trojan here Ku Klux Klan here, here Küssel, Gottfried here Lane, David here Le Loop here Le Pen, Marine here LeBretton, Matthew here Lebron, Michael here Lee, Robert E. here Li, Sean here Li family here Libyan Fighting Group here LifeOfWat here Lifton, Robert here Littman, Gisele here live action role play (LARP) here, here, here, here, here, here lobbying here Lokteff, Lana here loneliness here, here, here, here, here, here, here Lorraine, DeAnna here Lügenpresse here McDonald’s here McInnes, Gavin here McMahon, Ed here Macron, Emmanuel here, here, here, here MAGA (Make America Great Again) here ‘mainstream media’ here, here, here ‘Millennium Dawn’ here Manosphere here, here, here March for Life here Maria Theresa statue here, here Marighella, Carlos here Marina Bay Sands Hotel (Singapore) here Marx, Karl here Das Kapital here Masculine Development here Mason, James here MAtR (Men Among the Ruins) here, here Matrix, The here, here, here, here May, Theresa here, here, here Meechan, Mark here Meme Warfare here memes here, here, here, here and terrorist attacks here Men’s Rights Activists (MRA) here Menlo Park here Mercer Family Foundation here Merkel, Angela here, here, here, here MGTOW (Men Going Their Own Way) here, here, here MI6, 158, 164 migration here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here see also refugees millenarianism here Millennial Woes here millennials here Minassian, Alek here Mindanao here Minds here, here misogyny here, here, here, here, here see also Incels mixed martial arts (MMA) here, here, here, here Morgan, Nicky here Mounk, Yascha here Movement, The here Mueller, Robert here, here Muhammad, Prophet here, here, here mujahidat here Mulhall, Joe here MuslimCrypt here MuslimTec here, here Mussolini, Benito here Naim, Bahrun here, here Nance, Malcolm here Nasher App here National Action here National Bolshevism here National Democratic Party (NPD) here, here, here, here National Health Service (NHS) here National Policy Institute here, here National Socialism group here National Socialist Movement here National Socialist Underground here NATO DFR Lab here Naturalnews here Nawaz, Maajid here Nazi symbols here, here, here, here, here, here, here see also Hitler salutes; swastikas Nazi women here N-count here Neiwert, David here Nero, Emperor here Netflix here Network Contagion Research Institute here NetzDG legislation here, here Neumann, Peter here New Balance shoes here New York Times here News Corp here Newsnight here Nietzsche, Friedrich here, here Nikolai Alexander, Supreme Commander here, here, here, here, here, here 9/11 attacks here, here ‘nipsters’ here, here No Agenda here Northwest Front (NWF) here, here Nouvelle Droite here, here NPC meme here NSDAP here, here, here Obama, Barack and Michelle here, here, here, here, here Omas gegen Rechts here online harassment, gender and here OpenAI here open-source intelligence (OSINT) here, here Operation Name and Shame here Orbán, Viktor here, here organised crime here Orwell, George here, here Osborne, Darren here, here Oxford Internet Institute here Page, Larry here Panofsky, Aaron here Panorama here Parkland high-school shooting here Patreon here, here, here, here Patriot Peer here, here PayPal here PeopleLookup here Periscope here Peterson, Jordan here Pettibone, Brittany here, here, here Pew Research Center here, here PewDiePie here PewTube here Phillips, Whitney here Photofeeler here Phrack High Council here Pink Floyd here Pipl here Pittsburgh synagogue shooting here Pizzagate here Podesta, John here, here political propaganda here Popper, Karl here populist politicians here pornography here, here Poway synagogue shooting here, here Pozner, Lenny here Presley, Elvis here Prideaux, Sue here Prince Albert Police here Pro Chemnitz here ‘pseudo-conservatives’ here Putin, Vladimir here Q Britannia here QAnon here, here, here, here Quebec mosque shooting here Quilliam Foundation here, here, here Quinn, Zoë here Quran here racist slurs (n-word) here Radio 3Fourteen here Radix Journal here Rafiq, Haras here Ramakrishna, Kumar here RAND Corporation here Rasmussen, Tore here, here, here, here Raymond, Jolynn here Rebel Media here, here, here Reconquista Germanica here, here, here, here, here, here, here Reconquista Internet here Red Pill Women here, here, here, here, here Reddit here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here redpilling here, here, here, here refugees here, here, here, here, here Relotius, Claas here ‘Remove Kebab’ here Renault here Revolution Chemnitz here Rigby, Lee here Right Wing Terror Center here Right Wing United (RWU) here RMV (Relationship Market Value) here Robertson, Caolan here Robinson, Tommy here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here Rockefeller family here Rodger, Elliot here Roof, Dylann here, here Rosenberg, Alfred here Rothschilds here, here Rowley, Mark here Roy, Donald F. here Royal Family here Russia Today here, here S., Johannes here St Kilda Beach meeting here Salafi Media here Saltman, Erin here Salvini, Matteo here Sampson, Chris here, here Sandy Hook school shooting here Sargon of Akkad, see Benjamin, Carl Schild & Schwert rock festival (Ostritz) here, here, here Schilling, Curt here Schlessinger, Laura C. here Scholz & Friends here SchoolDesk here Schröder, Patrick here Sellner, Martin here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here Serrano, Francisco here ‘sexual economics’ here SGT Report here Shodan here, here Siege-posting here Sleeping Giants here SMV (Sexual Market Value) here, here, here Social Justice Warriors (SJW) here, here Solahütte here Soros, George here, here Sotloff, Steven here Southern, Lauren here Southfront here Spencer, Richard here, here, here, here, here, here Spiegel TV here spoofing technology here Sputnik here, here SS here, here Stadtwerke Borken here Star Wars here Steinmeier, Frank-Walter here Stewart, Ayla here STFU (Shut the Fuck Up) here Stormfront here, here, here Strache, H.

The Art of Scalability: Scalable Web Architecture, Processes, and Organizations for the Modern Enterprise by Martin L. Abbott, Michael T. Fisher

always be closing, anti-pattern, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, business climate, business continuity plan, business intelligence, business logic, business process, call centre, cloud computing, combinatorial explosion, commoditize, Computer Numeric Control, conceptual framework, database schema, discounted cash flows, Dunning–Kruger effect, en.wikipedia.org, fault tolerance, finite state, friendly fire, functional programming, hiring and firing, Infrastructure as a Service, inventory management, machine readable, new economy, OSI model, packet switching, performance metric, platform as a service, Ponzi scheme, power law, RFC: Request For Comment, risk tolerance, Rubik’s Cube, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, software as a service, the scientific method, transaction costs, Vilfredo Pareto, web application, Y2K

By being a better leader, you will get more out of your organizations and your organizations will make decisions consistent with your vision and mission. The result is greater scalability, more benefit with less work (or rework), and happier shareholders. Taking Stock of Who You Are Most people are not as good a leader as they think. We make this assertion from our personal experience, and while relying on the Dunning-Kruger effect. Through their studies, David Dunning and Justin Kruger witnessed that we often overestimate our abilities and that the overestimation is most severe where we lack experience or have 67 68 C HAPTER 4 L EADERSHIP 101 a high degree of ignorance.1 With very little formal leadership training available in our universities or workplaces, we believe that leadership ignorance abounds and that as a result, many people overestimate their leadership skills.

…

In their book Resonant Leadership, Richard Boyatzis and Annie McKee discuss the three components necessary for change in individuals as mindfulness, hope, and compassion.2 Mindfulness here is the knowledge of one’s self, including feelings and capabilities, whereas hope and compassion help to generate the vision and drivers for change. Unfortunately, as the Dunning-Kruger effect would argue, you probably aren’t the best person to evaluate where you are today. All of us have a tendency to inflate certain self-perceived strengths and potentially even misdiagnose weaknesses. Elite military units strip a potential leader down to absolutely nothing and force him to know his limits.

…

Designing to be disabled architectural principles, 201 markdown functionality, 282–283 Designing to be monitored, 470–471 Destructive interference communication breakdown, 105–106 in dysfunctional organizations, 212 Detection, incident management, 136–138 Diagnosis, incident management, 138 Dining philosophers problem, 394 Dirty cache data, 381 Disaster recovery, data center planning, 496–497 Distributed object caches, AKF Scale Cube for databases, 360 Documentation, crisis management activities, 154 Dot com bubble, 427 Downtime costs, of scalability failure, 114–117 DRIER (Detect, Report, Investigate, Escalate, Resolve) process, incident management, 138–139, 146–147 Dunning, David, 67 Dunning-Kruger effect, 67–68 Dysfunctional organizations, 211–213 E EBay, crisis management case studies, 152, 505–506 Ecommerce AKF Scale Cube for applications, 350–351 AKF Scale Cube for databases, 370–372 Educating executives, 111–112 Educational mismatch, communication breakdown, 106 I NDEX Efficiency, influences of organizational design, 44 Ego, role in leadership, 71 Elevation, data centers, 486 Employee reviews, leadership, 69 Employees.

Heart of the Machine: Our Future in a World of Artificial Emotional Intelligence by Richard Yonck

3D printing, AI winter, AlphaGo, Apollo 11, artificial general intelligence, Asperger Syndrome, augmented reality, autism spectrum disorder, backpropagation, Berlin Wall, Bletchley Park, brain emulation, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, computer age, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, crowdsourcing, deep learning, DeepMind, Dunning–Kruger effect, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Fairchild Semiconductor, friendly AI, Geoffrey Hinton, ghettoisation, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of writing, Jacques de Vaucanson, job automation, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Loebner Prize, Menlo Park, meta-analysis, Metcalfe’s law, mirror neurons, Neil Armstrong, neurotypical, Nick Bostrom, Oculus Rift, old age dependency ratio, pattern recognition, planned obsolescence, pneumatic tube, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Skype, social intelligence, SoftBank, software as a service, SQL injection, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, TED Talk, telepresence, telepresence robot, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, theory of mind, Turing test, twin studies, Two Sigma, undersea cable, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Review, working-age population, zero day

Enard W., Przeworski M., Fisher S.E., Lai C.S., Wiebe V., Kitano T., Monaco A.P., Pääbo S. “Molecular evolution of FOXP2, a gene involved in speech and language.” Nature 418, 869–872 (August 22, 2002). 12. Today we refer to such overconfidence as the Dunning-Kruger effect, a form of cognitive bias. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect. 13. Christiansen, M.H., Kirby, S. “Language evolution: consensus and controversies.” TRENDS in Cognitive Sciences, Vol.7 No.7. July 2003. 14. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. “The neural and cognitive correlates of aimed throwing in chimpanzees: a magnetic resonance image and behavioural study on a unique form of social tool use,” January 12, 2012, vol. 367 no. 1585 37–47. 15.

The Glass Half-Empty: Debunking the Myth of Progress in the Twenty-First Century by Rodrigo Aguilera

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", "World Economic Forum" Davos, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Alan Greenspan, Anthropocene, availability heuristic, barriers to entry, basic income, benefit corporation, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, Brexit referendum, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, capitalist realism, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, centre right, clean water, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, Colonization of Mars, computer age, Corn Laws, corporate governance, corporate raider, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, death from overwork, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, Dunning–Kruger effect, Elon Musk, European colonialism, fake news, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, fundamental attribution error, gig economy, Gini coefficient, Glass-Steagall Act, Great Leap Forward, green new deal, Hans Rosling, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, index fund, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jean Tirole, Jeff Bezos, Jeremy Corbyn, Jevons paradox, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, karōshi / gwarosa / guolaosi, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, lake wobegon effect, land value tax, Landlord’s Game, late capitalism, liberal capitalism, long peace, loss aversion, low interest rates, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, means of production, meta-analysis, military-industrial complex, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, moral panic, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, opioid epidemic / opioid crisis, Overton Window, Pareto efficiency, passive investing, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, principal–agent problem, profit motive, public intellectual, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, rent-seeking, risk tolerance, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Robert Solow, savings glut, Scientific racism, secular stagnation, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Slavoj Žižek, Social Justice Warrior, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, sovereign wealth fund, Stanislav Petrov, Steven Pinker, structural adjustment programs, surveillance capitalism, tail risk, tech bro, TED Talk, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade liberalization, transatlantic slave trade, trolley problem, unbiased observer, universal basic income, Vilfredo Pareto, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent, Y2K, young professional, zero-sum game

Nearly everyone has encountered at least one colleague who merely by the fact that he (yes, usually a he) behaves like a bigger expert than he is tends to climb the corporate ladder faster. Such behavior has been particularly noted among less competent individuals who tend to be more self-deluded about their own abilities. This phenomenon, known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect,28 basically has it that illusory superiority is strongest among those of lowest competence in whatever activity is being assessed. In contrast, people of moderate competence are more aware of their limitations, while those of high competence both recognize their abilities but also recognize the inherent complexity of the issues which results in them knowing that they don’t know everything.

…

In short, the stupider someone is the more convinced they are that they’re right about everything, an embarrassing spectacle that almost everyone who has been on social media over the past few years has surely encountered on an alarmingly regular basis. And though debating Twitter and Facebook trolls might be frustrating and futile, what’s more worrying is when the Dunning-Kruger Effect is found in environments that actually matter. Like the workplace or in politics, where incompetent but supremely self-assured individuals are perceived to be more authoritative and tend to nab the promotions and get voted into office. The current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue (and at time of writing, 10 Downing Street) being by far the best examples.

Doing Data Science: Straight Talk From the Frontline by Cathy O'Neil, Rachel Schutt

Amazon Mechanical Turk, augmented reality, Augustin-Louis Cauchy, barriers to entry, Bayesian statistics, bike sharing, bioinformatics, computer vision, confounding variable, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, data science, distributed generation, Dunning–Kruger effect, Edward Snowden, Emanuel Derman, fault tolerance, Filter Bubble, finite state, Firefox, game design, Google Glasses, index card, information retrieval, iterative process, John Harrison: Longitude, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, machine translation, Mars Rover, Nate Silver, natural language processing, Netflix Prize, p-value, pattern recognition, performance metric, personalized medicine, pull request, recommendation engine, rent-seeking, selection bias, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, statistical model, stochastic process, tacit knowledge, text mining, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, X Prize

But what we probably should focus on, or at least emphasize more strongly, is how students behave when they don’t know the answer. We need to have qualities that help us find the answer. Speaking of this issue, have you ever wondered why people don’t say “I don’t know” when they don’t know something? This is partly explained through an unconscious bias called the Dunning-Kruger effect. Basically, people who are bad at something have no idea that they are bad at it and overestimate their confidence. People who are super good at something underestimate their mastery of it. Actual competence may weaken self-confidence. Keep this in mind and try not to over- or underestimate your abilities—give yourself reality checks by making sure you can code what you speak and by chatting with other data scientists about approaches.

…

directed edges, Kyle Teague and GetGlue discrete derivative operators, A Baby Model distance metrics (k-NN), Similarity or distance metrics–Similarity or distance metrics sensitivity of, Some Problems with Nearest Neighbors distant reading, Franco Moretti distribution, Populations and Samples conditional, Probability distributions Gaussian, Probability distributions joint, Probability distributions named, Probability distributions normal, Probability distributions distributive crowdsourcing, Background: Crowdsourcing domain expertise vs. machine learning algorithms, Thought Experiment: What Are the Ethical Implications of a Robo-Grader? Dorsey, Jack, About Square Driscoll, Mike, The Current Landscape (with a Little History) Duhigg, Charles, A Bit of History on Data Journalism Dunning-Kruger effect, Cultivating Soft Skills dyads, Terminology from Social Networks, A First Example of Random Graphs: The Erdos-Renyi Model E eBay, Recommendation Engines: Building a User-Facing Data Product at Scale, The Dimensionality Problem edges, Kyle Teague and GetGlue, Terminology from Social Networks ego networks, Terminology from Social Networks Egyptian politics thought experiment, Thought Experiment eigenvalue centrality, Representations of Networks and Eigenvalue Centrality social networks and, Representations of Networks and Eigenvalue Centrality electronic health records (EHR), Research Experiment (Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership), Research Experiment (Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership) embedded methods, Example: User Retention engaged users, Challenges in features and learning entropy, Selection criterion conditional, Entropy feature selection and, Entropy specific conditional, Entropy epidemiology, Epidemiology–Closing Thought Experiment academic statistics and, Modern Academic Statistics confounders in, Stratification Does Not Solve the Confounder Problem–What Do People Do About Confounding Things in Practice?

Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain: Bitcoin, Blockchain, Ethereum & Smart Contracts by David Gerard

altcoin, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Bitcoin Ponzi scheme, blockchain, Blythe Masters, Bretton Woods, Californian Ideology, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, distributed ledger, Dogecoin, Dr. Strangelove, drug harm reduction, Dunning–Kruger effect, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Extropian, fiat currency, financial innovation, Firefox, Flash crash, Fractional reserve banking, functional programming, index fund, information security, initial coin offering, Internet Archive, Internet of things, Kickstarter, litecoin, M-Pesa, margin call, Neal Stephenson, Network effects, operational security, peer-to-peer, Peter Thiel, pets.com, Ponzi scheme, Potemkin village, prediction markets, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, Ross Ulbricht, Ruby on Rails, Satoshi Nakamoto, short selling, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Singularitarianism, slashdot, smart contracts, South Sea Bubble, tulip mania, Turing complete, Turing machine, Vitalik Buterin, WikiLeaks

Attorney’s Office, Southern District of New York (press release), 6 November 2014. [77] Nate Raymond. “Texan gets one-and-a-half years in prison for running bitcoin Ponzi scheme”. Reuters, 21 July 2016. [78] Justin O’Connell. “Lawyer Reveals Details About the Man Behind Bitcoin’s $4.5 Million Ponzi Scheme”. Motherboard, 18 December 2015. [79] Wikipedia: Dunning-Kruger effect. From which another name for bitcoins, “Dunning-Krugerrands.” [80] “Risk of Bitcoin Hacks and Losses Is Very Real”. Reuters, 29 August 2016. [81] Kyt Dotson. “Third Largest Bitcoin Exchange Bitomat Lost Their Wallet, Over 17,000 Bitcoins Missing”. SiliconAngle, 1 August 2011. [82] Coinabul. “10 Questions with Zhou Tong”.

The Joys of Compounding: The Passionate Pursuit of Lifelong Learning, Revised and Updated by Gautam Baid

Abraham Maslow, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, Alan Greenspan, Albert Einstein, Alvin Toffler, Andrei Shleifer, asset allocation, Atul Gawande, availability heuristic, backtesting, barriers to entry, beat the dealer, Benoit Mandelbrot, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Black Swan, book value, business process, buy and hold, Cal Newport, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, Clayton Christensen, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, commoditize, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deep learning, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, discounted cash flows, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, diversification, diversified portfolio, dividend-yielding stocks, do what you love, Dunning–Kruger effect, Edward Thorp, Elon Musk, equity risk premium, Everything should be made as simple as possible, fear index, financial independence, financial innovation, fixed income, follow your passion, framing effect, George Santayana, Hans Rosling, hedonic treadmill, Henry Singleton, hindsight bias, Hyman Minsky, index fund, intangible asset, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it, Jeff Bezos, John Bogle, Joseph Schumpeter, junk bonds, Kaizen: continuous improvement, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, Lao Tzu, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, low interest rates, Mahatma Gandhi, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, Mark Zuckerberg, Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager, Masayoshi Son, mental accounting, Milgram experiment, moral hazard, Nate Silver, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, offshore financial centre, oil shock, passive income, passive investing, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, Ponzi scheme, power law, price anchoring, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, reserve currency, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, risk free rate, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Shiller, Savings and loan crisis, search costs, shareholder value, six sigma, software as a service, software is eating the world, South Sea Bubble, special economic zone, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, stocks for the long run, subscription business, sunk-cost fallacy, systems thinking, tail risk, Teledyne, the market place, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, time value of money, transaction costs, tulip mania, Upton Sinclair, Walter Mischel, wealth creators, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game

The wiser we become, the more we realize how little we know. A lesser-known (and one of my all-time favorite) equation from Albert Einstein rings true: “Ego = 1 / Knowledge. More the knowledge lesser the ego, lesser the knowledge more the ego.” The deeper one dives into any field, the more humble one generally becomes (also known as the Dunning-Kruger effect). By demonstrating intellectual humility and acknowledging what we don’t know, we place ourselves into a beneficial position to learn more—thus, the dawning of wisdom. True expert knowledge in life and investing does not exist, only varying degrees of ignorance. This is not a problem to solve; it is simply how the world works.

…

Martin on, 244; Munger on, 244; overdiversification, 244; risk and, 117–118; sufficient, 246 diversity, Internet and, 291 dividend pay-outs, Fisher on, 217 dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP), 367 Dobelli, Rolf, 75 dog stock, 337 Dollar, US, total real returns on, 274 do-nothing syndrome, 135 dopamine, 270, 348 Doren, Charles Van, 16–17 Dorsey, Pat, on competitive advantage, 221 do-something syndrome, 137 doubt, 53–54 Dow Jones, 54, 88–89, 105 Dow Jones Industrial Average, 220–221, 273 downside volatility, 276 DRIP. See dividend reinvestment plan Druckenmiller, Stanley, 233 Drucker, Peter, 226; on efficiency, 247 dry powder, 299 due diligence, Buffett on, 174 Duhigg, Charles, 359; on habits, 360 Duke, Annie, 341 Dunning-Kruger effect, 51 DuPont analysis, 221 durability, 163–164 Durant, Ariel, 15 Durant, Will, 15, 42 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), 162, 191 earnings per share (EPS), 98, 162 Easterlin, Richard, 84 EBITDA. See earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization economies of scale, 99 Edge, The, 200 Edison, Thomas, 31, 304 education, 47, 82 Education of a Value Investor, The (Spier), 46 ego, 338–340; Einstein on, 51–52; Fisher on, 339 egotism, on Wall Street, 55 Eicher Motors, 309, 326, 346 Einhorn, David, 244 Einstein, Albert, 35, 36, 70, 155; on compound interest, 2, 349; on curiosity, 325; on ego, 51–52; on knowledge, 51–52; on simplicity, 73 Eisner, Michael, 4–5 elementary reading, 16 Ellis, Albert, 35 Ellis, Charles D., 175 emergency funds, 254–255 emerging markets, Munger on, 301–302 emerging moats, 213 Emerson, Harrington, 19 Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 52, 230 emotional arousal, 137, 275 emotional intelligence, 59, 157–158 empathy, in investment, 184–186 employee cost, 130 Endersen, Laurence, 50, 146 End of Accounting, The (Lev & Gu), 312 enterprise value (EV), 191 envy, 135, 339–340; Buffett on, 338 EPS.

The Behavioral Investor by Daniel Crosby

affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, availability heuristic, backtesting, bank run, behavioural economics, Black Monday: stock market crash in 1987, Black Swan, book value, buy and hold, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, compound rate of return, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, disinformation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Dunning–Kruger effect, endowment effect, equity risk premium, fake news, feminist movement, Flash crash, haute cuisine, hedonic treadmill, housing crisis, IKEA effect, impact investing, impulse control, index fund, Isaac Newton, Japanese asset price bubble, job automation, longitudinal study, loss aversion, market bubble, market fundamentalism, mental accounting, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral panic, Murray Gell-Mann, Nate Silver, neurotypical, Nick Bostrom, passive investing, pattern recognition, Pepsi Challenge, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, random walk, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, science of happiness, Shai Danziger, short selling, South Sea Bubble, Stanford prison experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, stocks for the long run, sunk-cost fallacy, systems thinking, TED Talk, Thales of Miletus, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tragedy of the Commons, trolley problem, tulip mania, Vanguard fund, When a measure becomes a target

Jason Zweig shares that participants in one ambiguous study reported 68% certainty in their ability to determine whether a drawing had been created by an Asian or European child. Likewise, college students reported 66% certainty that they could name which US states had the highest graduation rates. In both cases, the actual results were at or below chance levels. A related concept, perhaps my favorite in all of psychology, is what is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect. To put their findings indelicately, David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University found that dumb people are too dumb to know how dumb they are.34 Their inquiry into the subject was inspired by the case of McArthur Wheeler, a bank robber who attempted to disguise his identity by covering his face in lemon juice.

Transport for Humans: Are We Nearly There Yet? by Pete Dyson, Rory Sutherland

Abraham Maslow, Alan Greenspan, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, behavioural economics, bitcoin, Black Swan, Boeing 747, BRICs, butterfly effect, car-free, carbon footprint, Charles Babbage, choice architecture, cognitive bias, cognitive load, coronavirus, COVID-19, Crossrail, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, decarbonisation, demand response, Diane Coyle, digital map, driverless car, Dunning–Kruger effect, Elon Musk, fake news, functional fixedness, gender pay gap, George Akerlof, gig economy, global supply chain, Goodhart's law, Greta Thunberg, Gödel, Escher, Bach, high-speed rail, hive mind, Hyperloop, Induced demand, informal economy, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, lockdown, longitudinal study, loss aversion, low cost airline, Lyft, megaproject, meta-analysis, Network effects, nudge unit, Ocado, overview effect, Paul Samuelson, performance metric, pneumatic tube, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, remote working, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Rory Sutherland, Sapir-Whorf hypothesis, selection bias, Skype, smart transportation, social distancing, South Sea Bubble, systems thinking, TED Talk, the map is not the territory, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, urban planning, Veblen good, When a measure becomes a target, yield management, zero-sum game

Wherever you are in the world, you will underestimate your chance of getting divorced, being in a car accident or suffering from cancer while overestimating your chance of living a long life or having talented children.3 We are also over-optimistic when it comes to our own abilities, the quality of our plans and our tools for success. Psychologists call this the Dunning–Kruger effect. This is universal and has little to do with intelligence or experience. Consequently, seasoned government officials and politicians are as vulnerable to this effect as anyone else is. One US study tested 600 officials to compare what they thought they knew about climate change and their actual knowledge of it as evaluated in a test.4 Concerningly, the most experienced officials were also the most overconfident, leading them to oppose highly effective risk-reduction policies such as improving agricultural practices to reduce methane levels or protecting coastal settlements from rising sea levels.

The Willpower Instinct: How Self-Control Works, Why It Matters, and What You Can Doto Get More of It by Kelly McGonigal

banking crisis, behavioural economics, bioinformatics, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, cognitive bias, delayed gratification, Dunning–Kruger effect, Easter island, game design, impulse control, lifelogging, loss aversion, low interest rates, meta-analysis, mirror neurons, PalmPilot, phenotype, Richard Thaler, social contagion, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Tragedy of the Commons, Walter Mischel

Willpower Diet Willpower Workout ZZZZZZZZZZ willpower instinct pause-and-plan response Wolfgang Koehler Primate Research Center women, and chocolate Woods, Tiger would-be entrepreneur writer challenges voice of self-criticism Yale University School of Medicine yoga 1 This bias is not unique to willpower—for example, people who think they are the best at multitasking are actually the most distractible. Known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, this phenomenon was first reported by two Cornell University psychologists who found that people overestimate their abilities in all sorts of areas, including sense of humor, grammar, and reasoning skills. The effect is most pronounced among people who have the least skill; for example, those with a test score in the 12th percentile would, on average, estimate themselves to be in the 62nd percentile.

Disrupted: My Misadventure in the Start-Up Bubble by Dan Lyons

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, Ben Horowitz, Bernie Madoff, Big Tech, bitcoin, Blue Bottle Coffee, call centre, Carl Icahn, clean tech, cloud computing, content marketing, corporate governance, disruptive innovation, dumpster diving, Dunning–Kruger effect, fear of failure, Filter Bubble, Golden Gate Park, Google Glasses, Googley, Gordon Gekko, growth hacking, hiring and firing, independent contractor, Jeff Bezos, Larry Ellison, Lean Startup, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Marc Benioff, Mark Zuckerberg, Mary Meeker, Menlo Park, minimum viable product, new economy, Paul Graham, pre–internet, quantitative easing, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, Salesforce, Sand Hill Road, sharing economy, Sheryl Sandberg, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Snapchat, software as a service, South of Market, San Francisco, Stanford prison experiment, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, tech billionaire, tech bro, tech worker, TED Talk, telemarketer, tulip mania, uber lyft, Y Combinator, éminence grise

is an actual question that HubSpot’s twenty-something managers ask job candidates during interviews, according to reviews posted on Glassdoor, a website for job seekers. Also: “What does your desk look like? What would you put on it?” The thing about bozos is that bozos don’t know that they’re bozos. Bozos think they’re the shit, which makes them really annoying but also incredibly entertaining, depending on your point of view. Shrinks call this the Dunning-Kruger effect, named after two researchers from Cornell University whose studies found that incompetent people fail to recognize their own lack of skill, grossly overestimate their abilities, and are unable to recognize talent in other people who actually are competent. Cranium is a classic example. He was one of the first five employees at HubSpot, and in his mind, HubSpot is a huge, important company.

Beginners: The Joy and Transformative Power of Lifelong Learning by Tom Vanderbilt

AlphaGo, crowdsourcing, DeepMind, deliberate practice, Downton Abbey, Dunning–Kruger effect, fake it until you make it, functional fixedness, future of work, G4S, global supply chain, IKEA effect, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, lateral thinking, Maui Hawaii, meta-analysis, mirror neurons, performance metric, personalized medicine, quantum entanglement, randomized controlled trial, Rubik’s Cube, self-driving car, side hustle, Silicon Valley, Skype, Socratic dialogue, spaced repetition, Steve Jobs, zero-sum game

In the clumsily self-conscious early stages of skill learning, it can be hard to remember to take note of your surroundings. But progress will come. Just enjoy the moment; take it all in. THE BEGINNERS’ ADVANTAGE Even as your skills and knowledge progress, there is a potential value to holding on to that beginner’s mind. In what’s come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, the psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger famously showed that on various cognitive tests the people who did the worst were also the ones who most “grossly overestimated” their actual performance. They were “unskilled and unaware of it.” This can certainly be a stumbling block for beginners.

How to Talk to a Science Denier: Conversations With Flat Earthers, Climate Deniers, and Others Who Defy Reason by Lee McIntyre

2021 United States Capitol attack, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Alfred Russel Wallace, An Inconvenient Truth, Boris Johnson, carbon credits, carbon tax, Climategate, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, coronavirus, correlation does not imply causation, COVID-19, crisis actor, different worldview, disinformation, Donald Trump, Dunning–Kruger effect, en.wikipedia.org, Eratosthenes, experimental subject, fake news, false flag, green new deal, Higgs boson, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), lockdown, Mark Zuckerberg, Michael Shellenberger, obamacare, off-the-grid, Paris climate accords, post-truth, precautionary principle, Recombinant DNA, Richard Feynman, scientific mainstream, selection bias, social distancing, sovereign wealth fund, stem cell, Steven Levy, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, Upton Sinclair, Virgin Galactic, WikiLeaks

I talked to Cornelia Betsch on the phone, and she was interested in the possibility of working with me to try to set up a future experiment. Notes 1. James H. Kuklinski et al., “Misinformation and the Currency of Democratic Citizenship,” Journal of Politics 62, no. 3 (August 2000), https://www.uvm.edu/~dguber/POLS234/articles/kuklinski.pdf. 2. This is called the Dunning-Kruger effect. I discuss it in Post-Truth, 51–58. 3. A telephone survey is surely not as personal as a face-to-face encounter, but it is more personal than interacting with subjects only online. Kuklinski’s work involved a half-hour phone conversation with each of his participants. That is a long time to be on the phone with someone. 4.

The Personal MBA: A World-Class Business Education in a Single Volume by Josh Kaufman

Albert Einstein, Alvin Toffler, Atul Gawande, Black Swan, Blue Ocean Strategy, business cycle, business process, buy low sell high, capital asset pricing model, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Heinemeier Hansson, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Dean Kamen, delayed gratification, discounted cash flows, Donald Knuth, double entry bookkeeping, Douglas Hofstadter, Dunning–Kruger effect, en.wikipedia.org, Frederick Winslow Taylor, George Santayana, Gödel, Escher, Bach, high net worth, hindsight bias, index card, inventory management, iterative process, job satisfaction, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Kaizen: continuous improvement, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Lao Tzu, lateral thinking, loose coupling, loss aversion, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, Network effects, Parkinson's law, Paul Buchheit, Paul Graham, place-making, premature optimization, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rent control, scientific management, side project, statistical model, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, subscription business, systems thinking, telemarketer, the scientific method, time value of money, Toyota Production System, tulip mania, Upton Sinclair, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, Y Combinator, Yogi Berra

The more a person actually knows, the better their ability to self-assess their capabilities, and the more likely they are to doubt their capabilities until they have enough experience to know they’ve mastered the subject. According to David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University, Charles Darwin’s famous quip “Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge” is literally true. They explain the “Dunning-Kruger effect” as follows:1. Incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill. 2. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others. 3. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy. 4. If they can be trained to substantially improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill.

Principles: Life and Work by Ray Dalio

Alan Greenspan, Albert Einstein, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, backtesting, Bear Stearns, Black Monday: stock market crash in 1987, cognitive bias, currency risk, Deng Xiaoping, diversification, Dunning–Kruger effect, Elon Musk, financial engineering, follow your passion, global macro, Greenspan put, hiring and firing, iterative process, Jeff Bezos, Long Term Capital Management, margin call, Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager, microcredit, oil shock, performance metric, planetary scale, quantitative easing, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, transaction costs, yield curve

; “Are we going to try to convince each other that we are right or are we going to open-mindedly hear each other’s perspectives to try to figure out what’s true and what to do about it?”; or “Are you arguing with me or seeking to understand my perspective?” 27 Psychologist and science journalist Daniel Goleman originally coined this term in Emotional Intelligence. 28 Some of this may be a result of what is called the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals believe that they are in fact superior. 4 Understand That People Are Wired Very Differently Because of the different ways that our brains are wired, we all experience reality in different ways and any single way is essentially distorted.

Engineering Security by Peter Gutmann

active measures, address space layout randomization, air gap, algorithmic trading, Amazon Web Services, Asperger Syndrome, bank run, barriers to entry, bitcoin, Brian Krebs, business process, call centre, card file, cloud computing, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, cognitive load, combinatorial explosion, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Debian, domain-specific language, Donald Davies, Donald Knuth, double helix, Dr. Strangelove, Dunning–Kruger effect, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, false flag, fault tolerance, Firefox, fundamental attribution error, George Akerlof, glass ceiling, GnuPG, Google Chrome, Hacker News, information security, iterative process, Jacob Appelbaum, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, John Conway, John Gilmore, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Ken Thompson, Kickstarter, lake wobegon effect, Laplace demon, linear programming, litecoin, load shedding, MITM: man-in-the-middle, Multics, Network effects, nocebo, operational security, Paradox of Choice, Parkinson's law, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, Pierre-Simon Laplace, place-making, post-materialism, QR code, quantum cryptography, race to the bottom, random walk, recommendation engine, RFID, risk tolerance, Robert Metcalfe, rolling blackouts, Ruby on Rails, Sapir-Whorf hypothesis, Satoshi Nakamoto, security theater, semantic web, seminal paper, Skype, slashdot, smart meter, social intelligence, speech recognition, SQL injection, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, sunk-cost fallacy, supply-chain attack, telemarketer, text mining, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Market for Lemons, the payments system, Therac-25, too big to fail, Tragedy of the Commons, Turing complete, Turing machine, Turing test, Wayback Machine, web application, web of trust, x509 certificate, Y2K, zero day, Zimmermann PGP

There’s a well-documented phenomenon in psychology in which people have an unrealistically positive opinion of themselves, often totally unsupported by any actual evidence. This phenomenon is sometimes known as the Lake Wobegon effect after US humorist Garrison Keillor’s fictional community of the same name, in which “the women are strong, the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average”, or more formally the Dunning-Kruger effect in which unskilled people, unable to recognise their own lack of skill in an area and therefore to determine whether they’ve performed well or not, make poor decisions based on an overestimation of their own abilities [355], and is something that’s uniformly present across people from all age groups, races, education levels, and socioeconomic statuses [356].