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Chinese Spies: From Chairman Mao to Xi Jinping by Roger Faligot
active measures, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, autonomous vehicles, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, business intelligence, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Fall of the Berlin Wall, housing crisis, illegal immigration, index card, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, new economy, offshore financial centre, Pearl River Delta, Port of Oakland, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, special economic zone, stem cell, union organizing, young professional, éminence grise
Lin Biao’s army, Zhou Enlai’s diplomatic service and Wang Dongxing’s special units all preserved entire sections of the system. Zhou guaranteed the decent treatment of some jailed functionaries. This was the case for some political figures, including Deng Xiaoping, and for some intelligence agents. The collapse of the Diaochabu After the death of Kang Sheng’s rival Li Kenong in 1961, Kong Yuan, who had been Kang’s secretary at the CCP’s Shanghai Organization Department in the 1930s, took over as head of the Diaochabu, the CCP’s intelligence department. Kong was a close friend of Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping—so close indeed that in September 1939 Kong and Deng had married two women who were themselves close friends in a joint celebration at Yan’an, with a small party organized by Mao. Zhuo Lin, Deng’s new wife, was a secret agent behind Japanese lines.15 From 1961 onwards, Kong Yuan’s task had become increasingly challenging, for the Diaochabu was now responsible not only for the investigation and monitoring of party cadres, but also for intelligence missions abroad under various diplomatic or journalistic guises.
His body was slumped and his eyes deeply sunken in his emaciated face.”39 He may have been dying, but this did not stop Kang from trying to set up a third force, hostile to both Deng Xiaoping’s faction and to the Gang of Four; he had collaborated in turn with both clans. Even on his deathbed, Kang wanted to send Mao a “file” on Madame Mao and Zhang Chunqiao claiming that they had both been spies for the Kuomintang since the 1930s.40 It’s true that during the early 1970s, at the time of Lin Biao’s fall, there did exist within the security apparatus a group of people who, according to Hong Kong-based historian Ting Wang, indeed constituted a sort of “third force” led by Kang Sheng.41 Kang Sheng died on 16 December 1975, closely followed in January 1976 by Zhou Enlai, and then Mao Zedong that September. The following month, October 1976, the moderate group supporting Wang Dongxing and Deng Xiaoping was responsible for the arrest of the Gang of Four.
A month later his widow, along with the rest of the Gang of Four, was arrested by commandos from Unit 8341, the army’s political security unit. State security forces, with the support of the army under Marshal Ye’s leadership, were poised to bring Deng Xiaoping to power.44 However, Hua Guofeng’s and Wang Dongxing’s reign in Zhongnanhai, government headquarters, continued. Having gained power in mid-October, they were trying to expand the prerogatives and activities of the Diaochabu, the party’s intelligence bureau, which was re-established on 28 July 1978 under the leadership of Luo Qingchang. Their goal was to consolidate their position and, with Luo’s help, remove their rivals. Deng Xiaoping, already in a strong position within both the party and the army, was opposed to this. No doubt he did not want this organization, which had caused him and many other functionaries so much trouble, to regain the upper hand.
Strange Rebels: 1979 and the Birth of the 21st Century by Christian Caryl
anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, colonial rule, Deng Xiaoping, financial deregulation, financial independence, friendly fire, full employment, income inequality, industrial robot, Internet Archive, Kickstarter, land reform, land tenure, liberal capitalism, liberation theology, Mahatma Gandhi, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mohammed Bouazizi, Mont Pelerin Society, Neil Kinnock, new economy, New Urbanism, oil shock, open borders, open economy, Pearl River Delta, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price stability, rent control, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, single-payer health, special economic zone, The Chicago School, union organizing, upwardly mobile, Winter of Discontent, Xiaogang Anhui farmers, Yom Kippur War
Restless Empire: China and the World Since 1750, Odd Arne Westad, 373. 7. Deng Xiaoping: Portrait of a Chinese Statesman, David Shambaugh, 61–62. 8. Coming Alive! China After Mao, Roger Garside, 255. 9. China’s War with Vietnam, 1979: Issues, Decisions, and Implications, King C. Chen, 151. 10. The Deng Xiaoping Era: An Inquiry into the Fate of Chinese Socialism, 1978–1994, Maurice Meisner, 109. 11. “The Fifth Modernization,” Wei Jingsheng, 171–172, in The China Reader: The Reform Era, edited by Orville Schell and David Shambaugh. 12. Sowing the Seeds of Democracy in China: Political Reform in the Deng Xiaoping Era, Merle Goldman, 55. 13. Deng Xiaoping Era, Meisner, 109. 14. Ibid., 121. 15. Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping (1975–1982), Deng Xiaoping, 1984. 16. Deng Xiaoping Era, Meisner, 11–12. CHAPTER 14: THE EVANGELIST 1.
Deng: A Political Biography, Benjamin Yang. East Gate Books, Armonk, NY, 1998. Deng Xiaoping: Chronicle of an Empire, Ruan Ming, translated and edited by Nancy Liu, Peter Rand, and Lawrence R. Sullivan. Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1994. Deng Xiaoping: My Father, Deng Maomao. Basic Books, New York, 1995. Deng Xiaoping: Portrait of a Chinese Statesman, David Shambaugh. Oxford University Press, New York, 1995. Deng Xiaoping and the Chinese Revolution: A Political Biography, David S. G. Goodman. Routledge, New York, 1994. Deng Xiaoping and the Cultural Revolution: A Daughter Recalls the Critical Years, Deng Rong. Doubleday, New York, 2005. Deng Xiaoping and the Making of Modern China, Richard Evans. Penguin Books, New York, 1995. Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Ezra Vogel. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 2011.
CHAPTER 10: TRUTH FROM FACTS 1. Deng Xiaoping Shakes the World, Yu Guangyuan, 21. 2. Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Ezra F. Vogel, 193. 3. Ezra Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, 103–109. 4. “The 1979 Truth Criterion Controversy,” Michael Schoenhals. The Chinese Quarterly, no. 126 (June 1991). 5. The Deng Xiaoping Era: An Inquiry into the Fate of Chinese Socialism, 1978–1994, Maurice Meisner, 91. 6. Ibid. 7. The China Reader: The Reform Era, edited by Orville Schell and David Shambaugh, 158. 8. Coming Alive! China After Mao, Roger Garside, 212. 9. “China’s Winds of Change,” David Butler, Holger Jensen, and Lars-Erik Nelson. 10. Coming Alive!, Garside, 220–221. 11. Ibid., 219. 12. Ibid., 221. 13. Ibid., 215. 14. Deng Xiaoping Shakes the World: An Eyewitness Account of China’s Party Work Conference and the Third Plenum (November-December 1978), Yu Guangyuan, 21. 15.
Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is in Jeopardy by George Magnus
3D printing, 9 dash line, Admiral Zheng, Asian financial crisis, autonomous vehicles, balance sheet recession, banking crisis, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business process, capital controls, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, cloud computing, colonial exploitation, corporate governance, crony capitalism, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial repression, fixed income, floating exchange rates, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, high net worth, hiring and firing, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of movable type, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, land reform, Malacca Straits, means of production, megacity, money market fund, moral hazard, non-tariff barriers, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, old age dependency ratio, open economy, peer-to-peer lending, pension reform, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, regulatory arbitrage, rent-seeking, reserve currency, rising living standards, risk tolerance, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, special economic zone, speech recognition, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, total factor productivity, trade route, urban planning, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce, working-age population, zero-sum game
The east wind is surely blowing, but so are China’s red flags. That they will have trenchant consequences for China and the world is not in doubt. They point to a brittleness in Xi Jinping’s China which is not apparent when considering only the supposed omnipotence of the leader and the Party. That places Xi’s China in jeopardy. ENDNOTES Introduction 1. There are few better insights into Deng Xiaoping than Deng Xiaoping: Portrait of a Chinese Statesman, ed. David Shambaugh, Oxford University Press, 1995. 2. Henry Kissinger, On China, Penguin Books, 2012, p. 443. 3. The first foreign company to set up in Shenzhen in 1981 was a joint venture between a Thai agricultural company, Charoen Pokphand Group, and Continental Grain of the US. See ‘Company 0001, the first foreign company in Shenzhen’, Nikkei Asian Review, 18 December 2016, <https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Dhanin-Chearavanont-18-Company-0001-the-first-foreign-company-in-Shenzhen>. 4.
–China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (i) Hua Guofeng (i) Huangpu district (Shanghai) (i) Huawei (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) hukou (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Human Freedom Index (i) Human Resources and Social Security, Ministry of (i) Hunan (i) Hungary (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) ICORs (incremental capital-output ratios) (i), (ii), (iii) n4 IMF Article IV report (i) on broadening and deepening of financial system (i) China urged to devalue (i) China’s integration and (i) concern over smaller banks (i) concern over WMPs (i) credit gaps (i) credit intensity (i) GP research (i) ICOR (i) n4 laissez-faire ideas (i) pensions, healthcare and GDP research (i), (ii), (iii) Renminbi reserves (i) risky corporate loans (i) Special Drawing Rights (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) WAPs (i) immigrants see migrants income inequality (i) India Adam Smith on (i) ASEAN (i) BRI misgivings (i) BRICS (i), (ii) comparative debt in (i) demographic dividend (i) economic freedom level (i) frictions with (i) Nobel Prize (i) pushing back against China (i) regional allies of (i) SCO member (i) Indian Ocean access to ports (i) African rail projects and (i) Chinese warships enter (i) rimland (i) shorelines (i) Indo-Pacific region (i), (ii) Indonesia Asian crisis (i) BRI investment (i) debt and GDP (i) GDP (i) rail transport projects (i) RCEP (i) retirement age (i) trade with China (i) Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (i), (ii) Industrial Revolution (i), (ii) industrialisation (i), (ii) Industry and Information Technology, Minister of (i) infrastructure (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) (i) Inner Mongolia (i), (ii) innovation (i), (ii) Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (Adam Smith) (i) Institute for International Finance (i) institutions (i), (ii) insurance companies (i), (ii), (iii) intellectual property (i) interbank funding (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) investment (i), (ii), (iii) Iran (i) Ireland (i), (ii), (iii) Iron Curtain (i) ‘iron rice bowl’ (i) Israel (i), (ii) Italy (i), (ii), (iii) Jakarta (i), (ii) Japan acts of aggression by (i) aftermath of war (i) ASEAN (i) between the wars (i) bond market (i) Boxer Rebellion and (i) Chiang Kai-shek fights (i) China and (i) China’s insecurity (i) credit gap comparison (i) dispute over Diaoyu islands (i), (ii) export-led growth (i), (ii) financial crisis (i) friction with (i) full-scale war with China (i), (ii) growth (i) high-speed rail (i) India and (i) Liaodong peninsula (i) Manchuria taken (i), (ii), (iii) Mao fights (i) middle- to high-income (i) migrants to (i) Okinawa (i) old-age dependency ratio (i) pensions, healthcare and GDP research (i) pushing back against China (i) RCEP (i) Renminbi block, attitude to (i) research and development (i) rimland (i) robots (i) seas and islands disputes (i) Shinzō Abe (i) TPP (i) trade and investment from (i) yen (i) Jardine Matheson Holdings (i) Jiang Zemin 1990s (i) Deng’s reforms amplified (i), (ii), (iii) influence and allies (i) Xiao Jianhua and (i) Johnson, Lyndon (i) Julius Caesar (i) Kamchatka (i) Kashgar (i) Kashmir (i) Kazakhstan (i), (ii) Ke Jie (i) Kenya (i) Keynes, John Maynard (i) Kharas, Homi (i) Kissinger, Henry (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Korea (i), (ii), (iii) see also North Korea; South Korea Korean War (i), (ii) Kornai, János (i), (ii), (iii) n16 Kowloon (i), (ii) Krugman, Paul (i) Kunming (i) Kuomintang (KMT) (i), (ii) Kyrgyzstan (i) Kyushu (i) labour productivity (i) land reform (i) Laos (i), (ii), (iii) Latin America (i), (ii), (iii) Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (i) leadership (i) Leading Small Groups (LSGs) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Lee Kuan Yew (i) Lee Sodol (i) Legendary Entertainment (i) Lehman Brothers (i) lending (i) Leninism governance tending to (i) late 1940s (i) party purity (i) Xi’s crusade on (i), (ii) Lenovo (i), (ii) Lewis, Arthur (i) Lewis turning point (i) LGFVs (local government financing vehicles) (i) Li Keqiang (i), (ii) Liaodong peninsula (i), (ii) LinkedIn (i) Liu He (i), (ii), (iii) Liu Xiaobo (i) local government (i), (ii), (iii) London (i), (ii), (iii) Luttwak, Edward (i), (ii), (iii) Macartney, Lord George (i), (ii), (iii) Macau (i), (ii) Made in China 2025 (MIC25) ambitious plans (i) importance of (i) mercantilism (i) priority sectors (i) robotics (i) Maddison, Angus (i), (ii), (iii) n3 (C1) Maghreb (i) major banks see individual entries Malacca, Straits of (i) Malay peninsula (i) Malaysia ASEAN member (i) Asian crisis (i) high growth maintenance (i) Nine-Dash Line (i) rail projects (i), (ii) Renminbi reserves (i) TPP member (i) trade with (i) Maldives (i) Malthus, Thomas (i), (ii) Manchuria Communists retake (i) Japanese companies in (i) Japanese puppet state (i), (ii), (iii) key supplier (i) North China Plain and (i) Pacific coast access (i) Russian interests (i) targeted (i) Manhattan (i), (ii) see also New York Mao Zedong arts and sciences (i) China stands up under (i) China under (i) Communist Party’s grip on power (i) consumer sector under (i) Deng rehabilitated (i) Deng, Xi and (i) east wind and west wind (i) Great Leap Forward (i) industrial economy under (i) nature of China under (i) People’s Republic proclaimed (i) positives and negatives (i) property rights (i) women and the workforce (i) Xi and (i) Maoism (i) Mar-a-Lago (i) Mark Antony (i) Market Supervision Administration (i) Marshall Plan (i), (ii) Marxism (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Mauritius (i) May Fourth Movement (i) McCulley, Paul (i) n18 Mediterranean (i) Menon, Shivshankar (i) mergers (i) MES (market economy status (ii)) Mexico completion of education rates (i) debt comparison (i) GDP comparison (i) NAFTA (i) pensions comparison (i) TPP member (i) US border (i) viagra policy (i) Middle East (i), (ii), (iii) middle-income trap (i), definition (i) evidence and argument for (i) governance (i) hostility to (i) hukou system (i) lack of social welfare for (i) low level of (i) migrant factory workers (i) patents and innovation significance (i) significance of technology tech strengths and weaknesses (i) total factor productivity focus (i) vested and conflicted interests (i) ultimate test (i) World Bank statistics (i) migrants (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Ming dynasty (i) Minsky, Hyman (i) mixed ownership (i), (ii) Modi, Narendra (i) Mombasa (i) monetary systems (i) Mongolia (i), (ii) Monogram (i) Moody’s (i) Morocco (i) mortality rates (i) see also population statistics mortgages (i) motor cars (i), (ii) Moutai (i) Mundell, Robert (i) Muslims (i) Mutual Fund Connect (i) Myanmar ASEAN (i) Chinese projects (i) disputes (i) low value manufacturing moves to (i) Qing Empire in (i) ‘string of pearls’ (i) ‘Myth of Asia’s Miracle, The’ (Paul Krugman) (i) NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) (i) Nairobi (i) Namibia (i) Nanking (i) Treaty of (i), (ii) National Bureau of Statistics fertility rates (i) GDP figures (i) ICOR estimate (i), (ii), (iii) n4 SOE workers (i) National Cyberspace Work Conference (i) National Development and Reform Commission (i), (ii), (iii) National Financial Work Conferences (i) National Health and Family Planning Commission (i) National Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology (i) National Natural Science Foundation (i) National People’s Congress 2007 (i) 2016 (i) 2018 (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) National People’s Party of China (i) National Science Foundation (US) (i) National Security Commission (i) National Security Strategy (US) (i), (ii) National Supervision Commission (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Needham, Joseph (i) Nepal (i), (ii) Netherlands (i) New Development Bank (i), (ii) New Eurasian Land Bridge (i) New Territories (i), (ii) New York (i) see also Manhattan New Zealand (i), (ii), (iii) Next Generation AI Development Plan (i) Nigeria (i) Nine-Dash Line (i) Ningpo (i) Nixon, Richard (i) Nobel Prizes (i), (ii) Nogales, Arizona (i) Nogales, Sonora (i) Nokia (i) non-communicable disease (i) non-performing loans (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) North China Plain (i) North Korea (i) see also Korea Northern Rock (i) Norway (i) Nye, Joseph (i) Obama, Barack Hu Jintao and (i) Pacific shift recognised (i) Renminbi (i) US and China (i), (ii) OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) China’s ranking (i) GDP rates for pension and healthcare (i) GP doctors in (i) tertiary education rates (i) US trade deficit with China (i) Office of the US Trade Representative (i) Official Investment Assistance (Japan) (i) Okinawa (i) old-age dependency ratios (i), (ii), (iii) Olson, Mancur (i) Oman (i) one-child policy (i), (ii) Opium Wars financial cost of (i) First Opium War (i), (ii), (iii) Qing dynasty defeated (i) Oriental Pearl TV Tower, Shanghai (i) Pacific (i), (ii), (iii) Padma Bridge (i) Pakistan Economic Corridor (i) long-standing ally (i) Renminbi reserves (i) SCO member (i) ‘string of pearls’ (i) Paris (i) Party Congresses see numerical list at head of index patents (i) Peking (i), (ii), (iii) see also Beijing pensions (i) People’s Bank of China see also banks cuts interest rates again (i) floating exchange rates (i) lender of last resort (i), (ii) long term governor of (i) new rules issued (i) new State Council committee coordinates (i) places severe restrictions on banks (i) publishing Renminbi values (i) Renminbi/dollar rate altered (i) repo agreements (i) sells dollar assets (i) stepping in (i) Zhou Xiaochuan essay (i) People’s Daily front-page interview (i), (ii) on The Hague tribunal (i) riposte to Soros (i) stock market encouragement (i) People’s Liberation Army (i), (ii) Persia (i) Persian Gulf (i), (ii) Peru (i) Pettis, Michael (i) n12 Pew Research (i) Peyrefitte, Alain (i) Philippines (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Piraeus (i) PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) (i) Poland (i), (ii), (iii) ‘Polar Silk Road’ (i) Politburo (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) pollution (i) Polo, Marco (i) Pomeranz, Kenneth (i) population statistics (i) see also ageing trap; WAP (working-age population) consequences of ageing (i) demographic dividends (i), (ii) hukou system and other effects (i) low fertility (i), (ii), (iii) migrants (i), (ii) old-age dependency ratios (i), (ii), (iii) one-child policy (i), (ii) places with the most ageing populations (i) rural population (i) savings trends (i) technology and (i) under Mao (i) women (i) Port Arthur (i) Port City Colombo (i), (ii) Portugal (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) pricing (i), (ii) private ownership (i), (ii) productivity (i), (ii) Propaganda, Department of (i) property (i) property rights (i) Puerto Rico (i) Punta Gorda, Florida (i) Putin, Vladimir (i) Qianlong, Emperor (i) Qing dynasty (i), (ii), (iii) Qingdao (i) Qualcomm (i) Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (i), (ii) Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (i), (ii) Qiushi, magazine (i) rail network (i), (ii) RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) (i), (ii), (iii) real estate (i), (ii) reform authoritative source warns of need for (i), (ii) different meaning from West (i) of economy via rebalancing (i), (ii) as embraced by Deng Xiaoping (i) fiscal, foreign trade and finance (i), (ii) Hukou (i) of ownership (i) state-owned enterprises (i) third plenum announcements (i) in Xi Jinping’s China (i) ‘Reform and Opening Up’ (Deng Xiaoping) (i), (ii), (iii) regulations and regulatory authorities (financial) (i), (ii) Reinhart, Carmen (i) Renminbi (i) 2015 mini-devaluation and capital outflows (i), (ii) appreciates (i) banking system’s assets in (i) bloc for (i) capital flight risk (i) devaluation (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) dim sum bonds (i) efforts to internationalise (i) end of peg (i) foreign investors and (i) fully convertible currency, a (i) growing importance of (i) IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (i) Qualified Institutional Investors (i) in relation to reserves (i) Renminbi trap (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) share of world reserves (i) significance of (i), (ii) Special Drawing Rights and (i), (ii) US dollar and (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) repo markets (i), (ii) research and development (R&D) (i), (ii) Resources Department (i) retirement age (i) Rhodium Group (i) rimland (i) Robinson, James (i) robots (i) Rogoff, Kenneth (i) Roman Empire (i) Rotterdam (i) Rozelle, Scott (i) Rudd, Kevin (i) Rudong County (i) Rumsfeld, Donald (i) Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme (i) rural workers (i) Russia see also Soviet Union 19th century acquisitions (i), (ii) ageing population (i) BRI and (i) BRICS (i), (ii), (iii) C929s (i) China’s view of (i) early attempts at trade (i) fertility rates (i) Human Freedom Index (i) middle income trap and (i) Pacific sea ports (i) Polar Silk Road (i) Renminbi reserves (i) SCO member (i) Ryukyu Islands (i) Samsung (i) San Francisco (i) SASAC (i), (ii) Saudi Arabia (i) savings (i), (ii), (iii) Scarborough Shoal (i) Schmidt, Eric (i) Schumpeter, Joseph (i) SCIOs (i) Second Opium War (i) Second World War China and Japan (i), (ii) economic development since (i) Marshall Plan (i), (ii) US and Japan (i) Senkaku islands see Diaoyu islands separatism (i), (ii) Serbia (i) service sector (i), (ii) Seventh Fleet (US) (i) SEZs (special economic zones) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) shadow banks (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix) n18 see also banks Shandong (i), (ii) Shanghai 1st Party Congress (i) arsenal (i) British influence in (i) central bank established (i) Deng’s Southern Tour (i) firms halt trading (i) income per head (i) interbank currency market (i) PISA scores (i) pollution (i) property price rises (i) stock market (i), (ii), (iii) Western skills used (i) Shanghai Composite Index (i), (ii) Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) (i), (ii), (iii) Shanghai Free Trade Zone (i), (ii), (iii) Shanghai–Hong Kong Bond Connect Scheme (i) Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme (i), (ii) Shanghai World Financial Centre (i) Shenzhen first foreign company in (i) n3 (Intro.)
He insists that the primacy of the Party is indispensable to developing China in the twenty-first century and managing its growing footprint overseas. If his health holds and his opponents stay subdued, he could remain a strongman president for life. Whilst economists and China-watchers have been well aware of the global consequences of a rising China for some time, Xi’s China is going to resonate much more for all of us in future. If, as several Chinese thinkers now assert, China stood up under Mao Zedong and got rich under Deng Xiaoping, it is becoming powerful again under Xi Jinping, who articulates that China’s troubled twentieth century now lies firmly in the past as the Communist Party under his leadership pursues the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, based around ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’. Under Xi, China has become more controlling, more confident and more assertive. Driven by its own sense of and pride in millennia of history, it is determined to ‘take back’ its place in Asia and the world, and consign to history forever what it calls its ‘century of humiliation’.
Super Continent: The Logic of Eurasian Integration by Kent E. Calder
3D printing, air freight, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, blockchain, Bretton Woods, business intelligence, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cloud computing, colonial rule, Credit Default Swap, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, energy transition, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Gini coefficient, housing crisis, income inequality, industrial cluster, industrial robot, interest rate swap, intermodal, Internet of things, invention of movable type, inventory management, John Markoff, liberal world order, Malacca Straits, Mikhail Gorbachev, mittelstand, money market fund, moral hazard, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, seigniorage, smart cities, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, special economic zone, supply-chain management, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, trade route, transcontinental railway, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, union organizing, Washington Consensus, working-age population, zero-sum game
Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (New York: Basic Books, 1997), 31. 2. For the classic study of Deng Xiaoping and his key role in making Chinese politicaleconomic history, see Ezra F. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Harvard, 2011). 3. On the early genesis of the Four Modernizations, see Immanuel Chung-yueh Hsu, China without Mao: The Search for a New Order, 2nd ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990); and Vogel, Deng Xiaoping, 184 –248. 4. Hsu, China Without Mao, 92 –93. 5. Ibid., 94. 6. Hua thus, in Vogel’s view, deserves more credit for China’s opening than conventionally given, especially for instituting the SEZ concept. See Vogel, Deng Xiaoping, 185 and 190. 7. On the differences in the Hua and Deng approaches to Chinese economic development, see Edwin Moise, Modern China: A History, 2nd ed.
The epic policy changes orchestrated by Deng Xiaoping, beginning at the climactic December 1978 CPC meetings, represented a historic directional shift in China’s political-economic course. They provoked a quantum leap in the country’s economic magnitude, with fateful implications for the broader world. Such changes could not, of course, reorient China overnight. It was, instead, the economic growth unleashed through the incentive shifts created by the Four Modernizations, combined with policy fine-tuning over three decades and more, that finally converted Deng’s creative new policy line into the sharply more proactive, continental, influential, and increasingly globalist China that we encounter on the world stage today. The Four Modernizations were national objectives first set out definitively by Deng Xiaoping to strengthen four sectors of the Chinese economy: agriculture, industry, national defense, and science/technology.
For China’s response to this, see John Garver, China’s Quest: The History of the Foreign Relations of the People’s Republic of China (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016), 416 –19. 11. Calder, The New Continentalism, 67. 12. Ibid. 13. Ibid. 14. Shenzhen and Zhuhai were picked in August 1980, followed by Xiamen in October 1980 and Guangdong in October 1981. Hainan did not become an SEZ until April 1988. 15. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping, 403. 16. See Vogel, Deng Xiaoping, Chapter 14; and Barry Naughton, “China’s Emergence and Prospects as a Trading Nation,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1966): 273 –344. 17. On the Soviet decline, see David Remnick, Lenin’s Tomb: The Last Days of the Soviet Empire (New York: Random House, 1993). 18. Fatalities included 11,321 Red Army, 548 KGB, and 28 Ministry of Internal Affairs combat deaths. See G.
China's Future by David Shambaugh
Berlin Wall, capital controls, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, facts on the ground, financial intermediation, financial repression, Gini coefficient, high net worth, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, low skilled workers, market bubble, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, open economy, Pearl River Delta, rent-seeking, secular stagnation, short selling, South China Sea, special drawing rights, too big to fail, urban planning, Washington Consensus, working-age population, young professional
See Franklyn Griffiths, “A Tendency Analysis of Soviet Policymaking,” in H. Gordon Skilling and Franklyn Griffiths (eds.), Interest Groups in Soviet Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1971). 3. Ibid. 4. See Deng Xiaoping Wenxuan (1975–1982) [Collected Works of Deng Xiaoping], (Beijing: Renmin chubanshe, 1983), pp. 302–25. 5. See Harry Harding, China’s Second Revolution: Reform After Mao (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1987). 6. For Zhao’s background, see David Shambaugh, The Making of a Premier: Zhao Ziyang’s Provincial Career (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1983). 7. Bruce Gilley, “Deng Xiaoping and His Successors,” in William A. Joseph (ed.), Politics in China: An Introduction (New York: Oxford University Press, 2014), p. 135. 8. Communique on the Current State of the Ideological Sphere: A Notice from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s General Office, full translation available at: http://www.chinafile.com/document-9-chinafile-translation.
After more than three decades of successful reforms, the nation has reached critical junctures in its economic, social, political, environmental, technological, and intellectual development, as well as in national security, foreign affairs, and other realms of policy. Diminishing returns have set in and it has become plainly evident that the main elements of the broad reform program first launched by Deng Xiaoping in 1978 are no longer applicable or sustainable for spurring China’s continued modernization over the coming decades. Change is required. Indeed, China’s own contemporary leaders have evinced their deep concerns. In 2007, former Premier Wen Jiabao bluntly described the nation’s economy as characterized by the “four ‘uns’”: “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.”1 And this came from the man in charge of the national economy.
See David Shambaugh, “The Coming Chinese Crack-Up,” Wall StreetJournal, March 7, 2015. 3 China’s Society No dimension of China has changed as rapidly or as thoroughly during the reform era as has society, and no society in history has experienced such profound transformations in such an abbreviated period: from an agrarian, pre-industrial, poor, uneducated, closed, conformist, and sedentary society entirely dependent on the state for basic provisions to an urbanized, industrial, increasingly wealthy, educated, open, variegated, and mobile society able to purchase most of life’s necessities in the marketplace. Anyone who has been traveling through China annually over the past (almost) four decades, as I have, can testify to the extraordinary transformations in the lives of one-fifth of humanity. I recall when I first visited in the late 1970s, the reforms were getting under way, Deng Xiaoping invoked the notion “to get rich is glorious,” and Chinese urbanites aspired to possess the “four rounds” (things that went around: a bicycle, a wristwatch, a sewing machine, a washing machine) and “three electrics” (a television, refrigerator, and private telephone). Nowadays Chinese nouveaux riches travel and buy property abroad (in 2014 Chinese tourists took 109 million trips abroad), pay exorbitant foreign tuition prices for their children’s education, own their own luxury cars, live in privately purchased homes, and have huge disposable incomes.
Transcending the Cold War: Summits, Statecraft, and the Dissolution of Bipolarity in Europe, 1970–1990 by Kristina Spohr, David Reynolds
anti-communist, bank run, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, computer age, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Kickstarter, Kitchen Debate, liberal capitalism, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Nixon shock, oil shock, open borders, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, shared worldview, Thomas L Friedman, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game
When Gorbachev broached the subject of reforms, arguing that while China was ahead economically, the Soviet Union led politically, Li answered with reserve: ‘Every country has its circumstances, every man walks his own road.’35 As with Bush’s visit, the height of the summit was Gorbachev’s meeting with Deng Xiaoping, which, the Chinese indicated, marked the official moment of Sino-Soviet normalization. The meeting also symbolized for many protestors the course they hoped to take. ‘Gorbachev 58, Deng Xiaoping 85’, read some of the banners in the streets, denoting their respective ages and highlighting the contrast between the dynamism of one and the conservatism of the other. Gorbachev came from the generation of the Soviet shestidesyatniki—those who had politically matured during the atmosphere of relative openness of Khrushchev’s de-Stalinization.
Ezra F. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Cambridge, MA, 2011), 485–6. The Bush-Deng arrangement formed the basis, when formally negotiated, of a ‘United States-China Joint Communique on United States Arms Sales to Taiwan’ (17 August 1982). 15. Mann, About Face, 176. See also Mann’s more polemical The China Fantasy: How our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression (New York, 2007). 16. Mann, About Face, 159. 17. Intelligence Research Report, State Department, 17 December 1987, State Department FOIA reading room; Intelligence Research Report, State Department, 21 October 1987, 10. Both available at https://foia.state.gov/search/results.aspx?searchText=China&beginDate=19871001&endDate=19871231&publishedBeginDate=&publishedEndDate=&caseNumber=. 18. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping, 423. 19.
GBPL, BSF, Presidential Correspondence, Memcon, Welcoming banquet in Beijing, China, 25 February 1989, https://bush41library.tamu.edu/files/memcons-telcons/1989-02-25--Peng.pdf. 27. GBPL, BSF, Presidential Correspondence, Memcon, Bush’s meeting Deng Xiaoping, 26 February 1989, https://bush41library.tamu.edu/files/memcons-telcons/1989-02-26--Xiaoping.pdf. 28. GBPL, BSF, Presidential Correspondence, Memcon, Bush’s meeting with Zhao Ziyang, 26 February 1989, https://bush41library.tamu.edu/files/memcons-telcons/1989-02-26--Ziyang.pdf. 29. GBPL, BSF, Presidential Correspondence, Memcon, Bush’s meeting with Zhao Ziyang, 26 February 1989, https://bush41library.tamu.edu/files/memcons-telcons/1989-02-26--Ziyang.pdf. 30. GBPL, BSF, Presidential Correspondence, Memcon, Bush’s meeting Deng Xiaoping, 26 February 1989, https://bush41library.tamu.edu/files/memcons-telcons/1989-02-26--Xiaoping.pdf. 31. Mann, About Face, 178.
The Cold War: A New History by John Lewis Gaddis
American ideology, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, European colonialism, full employment, land reform, long peace, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Potemkin village, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Sinatra Doctrine
[Friedberg, In the Shadow of the Garrison State, p. 82n; Gaddis, Strategies of Containment, p. 393; International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, 1979–1980 (London: IISS, 1979), p. 9.] 44 Arbatov, The System, p. 206. 45 Baum, Burying Mao, pp. 11, 56–65; Richard Evans, Deng Xiaoping and the Making of Modern China (New York: Penguin, 1997), pp. 184–89, 212–43. The quote from Mao is in Li Zhisui, The Private Life of Chairman Mao: The Memoirs of Mao’s Personal Physician, translated by Tai Hung-chao (New York: Random House, 1994), p. 577. I have also benefited from reading Bryan Wong, “The Grand Strategy of Deng Xiaoping,” International Studies Senior Essay, Yale University, 2005. 46 “The ‘Two Whatevers’ Do Not Accord with Marxism,” March 24, 1977, http://English.people.com.cn/dengxp/vol2/text/b1100.html. 47 For the relevant statistics, see Baum, Burying Mao, p. 391. 48 Mikhail Gorbachev and Zdeněk Mlynář, Conversations with Gorbachev: On Perestroika, The Prague Spring, and the Crossroads of Socialism, translated by George Schriver (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002), p. 189. 49 William I.
There is therefore no need to fear.89 “The Pope!” Josef Stalin was reputedly fond of asking. “How many divisions has he got?”90 John Paul II, during the nine days he spent in Poland in 1979, provided the answer. This too was a development, as Dobrynin might have put it, “totally beyond the imagination of the Soviet leadership.” CHAPTER SIX ACTORS Be not afraid! —JOHN PAUL II1 Seek truth from facts. —DENG XIAOPING 2 We can’t go on living like this. —MIKHAIL GORBACHEV3 THE POPE HAD BEENan actor before he became a priest, and his triumphant return to Poland in 1979 revealed that he had lost none of his theatrical skills. Few leaders of his era could match him in his ability to use words, gestures, exhortations, rebukes—even jokes—to move the hearts and minds of the millions who saw and heard him.
There was Lech Wałęsa, the young Polish electrician who stood outside the locked gate of the Lenin shipyard in Gdansk one day in August, 1980—with the pope’s picture nearby—to announce the formation of Solidarność, the first independent trade union ever in a Marxist-Leninist country. There was Margaret Thatcher, the first woman to become prime minister of Great Britain, who relished being tougher than any man and revived the reputation of capitalism in Western Europe. There was Deng Xiaoping, the diminutive, frequently purged, but relentlessly pragmatic successor to Mao Zedong, who brushed aside communism’s prohibitions on free enterprise while encouraging the Chinese people to “get rich.” There was Ronald Reagan, the first professional actor to become president of the United States, who used his theatrical skills to rebuild confidence at home, to spook senescent Kremlin leaders, and after a young and vigorous one had replaced them, to win his trust and enlist his cooperation in the task of changing the Soviet Union.
The Last Kings of Shanghai: The Rival Jewish Dynasties That Helped Create Modern China by Jonathan Kaufman
anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Charles Lindbergh, colonial rule, Deng Xiaoping, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Honoré de Balzac, indoor plumbing, joint-stock company, life extension, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, Mikhail Gorbachev, old-boy network, plutocrats, Plutocrats, rent control, Steve Jobs, trade route
Thatcher then invited Lawrence to London to attend a state dinner in honor of Mao’s handpicked successor, Hua Guofeng, who was visiting Europe for the first time. Lawrence was “very well impressed” meeting the titular Chinese leader, though Deng Xiaoping was already maneuvering to replace him. Lawrence found Hua “very well informed as to what is going on in the world” and eager to “preserve and maintain the prosperity that we now have, and to enlarge and help it to grow.” At a private meeting with a senior Chinese leader in Guangdong, Lawrence was told that the entire Chinese leadership, including Deng Xiaoping, was eager to see the project succeed. “It could be the future of Hong Kong we are talking about,” Lawrence told Thatcher. In 1981, formal talk began between China and Britain about what would happen in 1997 when the lease on the New Territories expired.
Her death shattered the family and turned her into a figure of fascination and reverence for the Chinese. Lawrence Kadoorie (1899–1993). Elly and Laura’s eldest son. Sturdy, with powerful shoulders and a love for fast cars, Lawrence had dreams of becoming a lawyer but was forced into the family business by his father. Refusing to abandon China after the Communists seized Shanghai, he rebuilt the family fortune in Hong Kong and was embraced by Deng Xiaoping and the Chinese when China emerged from isolation in the 1970s. Horace Kadoorie (1902–1995). Lawrence’s younger brother. Shy where his brother was gregarious; tall and thin where his brother was five-foot-nine and built like a boxer. A lifelong bachelor, Horace lived with his father in Shanghai’s largest mansion and then in a country house away from the center of Hong Kong. He and his brother shared an extraordinary bond, and together they saved 18,000 Jewish refugees who fled Nazism and later helped 360,000 Chinese who fled communism rebuild their lives in Hong Kong.
His army was forced to flee Shanghai and abandon the mainland in 1949 and establish a new government on the island of Taiwan. Mao Zedong (1893–1976). The Chinese Communist revolutionary was a tenant of Silas Hardoon. Mao Zedong loved Shanghai for its radicalism and hated it for its capitalism, and the city played a pivotal role for him and his wife, Jiang Qing, as they transformed China. His death paved the way for the return of the Kadoories to Shanghai and the city’s reevaluation of the Sassoons. Deng Xiaoping (1904–1997). The leader of China from 1978 to 1992, he was determined to modernize China. He ordered officials to reach out to Lawrence Kadoorie to build China’s first nuclear plant and welcomed the Kadoories back into the circle of power at the Great Hall of the People. The Bund in Shanghai in the 1930s Introduction It was a muggy late-summer day in 1979 when I stepped out of the Shanghai heat into the cool marble lobby of the Peace Hotel.
How Asia Works by Joe Studwell
affirmative action, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, borderless world, Bretton Woods, British Empire, call centre, capital controls, central bank independence, collective bargaining, crony capitalism, cross-subsidies, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, financial deregulation, financial repression, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, land reform, land tenure, large denomination, liberal capitalism, market fragmentation, non-tariff barriers, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, passive investing, purchasing power parity, rent control, rent-seeking, Right to Buy, Ronald Coase, South China Sea, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, urban sprawl, Washington Consensus, working-age population
He is the ephor [the senior magistrate in ancient Greece] of the exchange economy.’ Joseph Schumpeter, A Theory of Economic Development, translated by Redvers Opie (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1934), p. 74. Part 4 – Where China Fits In 1. Li Xiangqian and Han Gang, ‘Xin faxian Deng Xiaoping yu Hu Yaobang deng sanci tanhua jilu’ (‘Newly Discovered Record of Three of Deng Xiaoping’s Talks with Hu Yaobang and Others’), Bainianchao, n0. 3 (1999): 4–11, reprinted in Xie Chuntao, ed., Deng Xiaoping xiezhen (A Portrait of Deng Xiaoping) (Shanghai: Shanghai cishu chubanshe, 2005), p. 192. 2. The hugely polluting cement kilns developed in China are a form of vertical kiln into which ingredients are loaded by hand before ignition. The glass-making process is known as the Luoyang technique. For more on China’s ‘alternative’ technologies, see Joe Studwell, The China Dream: The Elusive Quest for the Last Great Untapped Market on Earth (London: Profile, 2002), p. 192. 3.
H Coase, ‘The Institutional Structure of Production’, American Economic Review 82, no. 4 (September 1992). Klaus W. Deininger, Land Policies and Land Reform (Washington DC: World Bank Publications, 2004). Klaus W. Deininger, Land Policies for Growth and Poverty Reduction (Washington DC: World Bank Publications, 2003). Klaus Deininger and Lyn Squire, ‘New Ways of Looking at Old Issues: Inequality and Growth’, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 57, no. 2 (1998). Deng Xiaoping, Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping, vol. 3 (1982–1992) (Beijing: People’s Publishing House, 1993). Department of Agrarian Reform, Republic of the Philippines, ‘Philippine Agrarian Reform: Partnerships for Social Justice, Rural Growth and Sustainable Development’, 3 March 2006. Marleen Dieleman, How Chinese are Entrepreneurial Strategies of Ethnic Chinese Business Groups in Southeast Asia? A Multifaceted Analysis of the Salim Group of Indonesia (Leiden: Leiden University Press, 2007), available at https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/bitstream/handle/1887/12076/Thesis.pdf;jsessionid=AE9DC528BA72429D09929BBB8B671B38?
Any progress on this front will be reported at www.howasiaworks.com. Unless otherwise noted, exchange rates are those that applied in the year or period that is being discussed. Finally, pretty much every country in Asia has produced competing systems of romanisation of Asian languages. In writing names of people and places, I have attempted to use the romanised forms that are most familiar to contemporary English language readers. Hence Deng Xiaoping is rendered in the mainland Chinese pinyin system, whereas Chiang Kai-shek is rendered in the Wade-Giles system favoured in Taiwan. In South Korea, a degree of romanisation anarchy reigns. The McCune-Reischauer system, the Yale system, the new Revised Romanisation system and more exist concurrently and Koreans take their pick when romanising their names. Moreover, there is no accepted convention for the hyphenation and capitalisation of given names.
China's Disruptors: How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies Are Changing the Rules of Business by Edward Tse
3D printing, Airbnb, Airbus A320, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, bilateral investment treaty, business process, capital controls, commoditize, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Graeber, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, experimental economics, global supply chain, global value chain, high net worth, industrial robot, Joseph Schumpeter, Lyft, money market fund, offshore financial centre, Pearl River Delta, reshoring, rising living standards, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, thinkpad, trade route, wealth creators, working-age population
Others suffer from sustained official prejudice that favors state-owned firms, a factor that can make matters of everyday business, such as securing a bank loan, a nightmare. Many of today’s most successful Chinese entrepreneurs, most of them now in their 40s, 50s, and 60s, had no experience in business when they started their companies. They had to learn things as they went along through a continual process of trial and error. They were “crossing the river by feeling the stones,” as Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 to 1998, characterized his approach to economic reform. Among those who started businesses in the period from the 1980s through the early 2000s, not one could have foreseen the China of 2014. Yet these are the people who have played the single biggest role in creating the wealth that exists in China today. Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at Washington, D.C.
A GUIDE TO CHINA’S DISRUPTORS This book explores the rise of China’s entrepreneurs, the nature of their success and the challenges they pose to existing international companies, and the opportunities their rise will generate. It explores these themes in the following order. First, in Chapter 1, I look at what drives China’s entrepreneurs to push beyond the normal boundaries expected of even the most successful businesspeople. This chapter examines the features that characterize their approach to business by looking at the various waves of entrepreneurship in China since Deng Xiaoping launched his program of economic reform at the end of the 1970s. An understanding of recent Chinese history is necessary to grasp how a socialist, centrally planned economy became home to the world’s most powerful private sector in just three decades, and I provide a primer here. In Chapter 2, I explore the environment that is producing and shaping these entrepreneurs. I consider China’s scale, its market openness, the role of the government, and the role of technology, particularly the Internet, and how these four factors have produced tremendously fast-growing, aggressive, and adaptive companies.
Partly this will call for integrating their China operations into their global operations—indeed, making them a core part of their global operations—and partly this will require a reworking of their organizational and conceptual frameworks to integrate management practices now taking shape in China. Finally, in this book’s conclusion, I look at the wider implications of Chinese entrepreneurship, beyond business, in the realms of political and social disruption. Ever since Deng Xiaoping launched his country’s economic-reform program in the late 1970s, and even more so after he relaunched them in 1992, the entire country has been moving forward on a tide of innovation and risk taking. As a result, I believe that China has embarked on a renaissance that could not just rival its greatest era in history—the Tang dynasty of the seventh through the tenth centuries—but could go a step further and lead to it playing a crucial role in shaping global governance.
Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth, and Faith in the New China by Evan Osnos
conceptual framework, crony capitalism, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Brooks, Deng Xiaoping, East Village, financial independence, Gini coefficient, income inequality, indoor plumbing, information asymmetry, land reform, Lao Tzu, low skilled workers, market fundamentalism, Mohammed Bouazizi, plutocrats, Plutocrats, rolodex, scientific worldview, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, transcontinental railway, Washington Consensus, Xiaogang Anhui farmers, young professional
The strategy, as Chen Yun put it, was to move without losing control—to “cross the river by feeling for the stones.” (Deng, inevitably, received credit for the expression.) In 1979 the Party announced that it would no longer tag people as “landlords” and “rich peasants,” and later Deng Xiaoping removed the final stigma: “Let some people get rich first,” he said, “and gradually all the people should get rich together.” The Party extended the economic experiment. Officially, private businesses were permitted to hire no more than eight employees—Marx had believed that firms with more than eight workers were exploitative—but eventually small enterprises began popping up so fast that Deng Xiaoping told a Yugoslav delegation that it was “as if a strange army had appeared suddenly from nowhere.” He did not take credit. “This is not the achievement of our central government,” he said. All over the country, people were exiting the collective farms that had dominated their lives.
For a vivid history of Quemoy’s role in the conflict between Taiwan and mainland China, see Michael Szonyi, Cold War Island: Quemoy on the Front Line (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2008); Michael Shaplen, “Letter from Taiwan,” The New Yorker, June 13, 1977, p. 72; and Richard James Aldrich, Gary D. Rawnsley, and Ming-Yeh T. Rawnsley, The Clandestine Cold War in Asia, 1945–65: Westrern Intelligence, Propaganda and Special Operations (New York: Routledge, 2000). For background on the relationship between senior leaders at the advent of reform, see Barry Naughton, “Deng Xiaoping: The Economist,” China Quarterly 135, Special Issue: Deng Xiaoping: An Assessment (Sept. 1993): 491–514; Jonathan Spence, The Search for Modern China (New York: W. W. Norton and Company, 1990); Zhao Ziyang, Prisoner of the State: The Secret Journal of Premier Zhao Ziyang (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009); and Kate Xiao Zhou, How the Farmers Changed China: Power of the People (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1996). 2. THE CALL For a narrative history of the demonstrations at Tiananmen Square, see Orville Schell, Mandate of Heaven: In China, a New Generation of Entrepreneurs, Dissidents, Bohemians, and Technocrats Grasps for Its Country’s Power (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1994).
But the numbers were fiction, and as starvation spread, many who complained were tortured or killed. The Party barred people from traveling to find food. Mao’s Great Leap Forward resulted in the world’s worst famine, which killed between thirty and forty-five million people, more than World War I. By the time Captain Lin defected from Taiwan, the People’s Republic was poorer than North Korea; its per capita income was one-third that of sub-Saharan Africa. Deng Xiaoping had been China’s paramount leader for less than six months. At seventy-five, he was a persuasive but plainspoken statesman, and a survivor—repeatedly purged from the leadership by Chairman Mao, twice rehabilitated. In the years since, he has often been described as the sole architect of the boom that followed, but that view is the handiwork of Party historians. Deng understood the limitations of his knowledge.
Zero-Sum Future: American Power in an Age of Anxiety by Gideon Rachman
Asian financial crisis, bank run, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bonfire of the Vanities, borderless world, Bretton Woods, BRICs, capital controls, centre right, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, colonial rule, currency manipulation / currency intervention, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, global reserve currency, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, illegal immigration, income inequality, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, laissez-faire capitalism, Live Aid, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, offshore financial centre, open borders, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, pension reform, plutocrats, Plutocrats, popular capitalism, price stability, RAND corporation, reserve currency, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Sinatra Doctrine, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, The Myth of the Rational Market, Thomas Malthus, trickle-down economics, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent, zero-sum game
They would surf the Internet rather than riot in the streets. The notion of a win-win world did not seem incredible in the heyday of globalization, for this was also an Age of Optimism in much of Asia and in the European Union. Predictions that the Chinese miracle would be ended by the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989 proved wide of the mark. Instead Chinese growth was relaunched at an even faster pace, after Deng Xiaoping’s “southern tour” of the country’s manufacturing heartlands in 1992. Almost two more decades of rapid economic growth led the Chinese cheerfully to embrace the idea of a win-win world. Hu Jintao, China’s president, even used the phrase when he toured a Boeing plant near Seattle in 2006, saying that “Boeing’s co-operation with China is a vivid example of mutually beneficial co-operation and a win-win outcome.”5 By the mid-1990s it was clear that India too was growing rapidly, and the rise of the Indian information technology (IT) industry became one of the clichés of globalization.
PART ONE THE AGE OF TRANSFORMATION, 1978–91 INTRODUCTION No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come. —Manmohan Singh, India’s finance minister, July 1991 The Age of Transformation began in December 1978 in Beijing at the third plenary session of the eleventh Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. It ended on Christmas Eve, 1991, when the flag of the Soviet Union was lowered for the last time over the Kremlin. In late 1978, Deng Xiaoping laid the foundations for the opening of China and his country’s emergence as an economic superpower. By contrast, the economic and political reforms initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev in the mid-1980s brought about the breakup of the Soviet Union. But while the domestic political effects of Russian and Chinese economic reforms were very different, their global significance was similar. At the beginning of the 1980s it still made sense to speak of a socialist and a capitalist world.
The cold war was the defining principle of international politics, as it had been since 1949. By the end of the Age of Transformation, the world was no longer divided into two rival political and economic camps. The celebration of capitalism and wealth creation seemed all but universal. In the United States, President Ronald Reagan insisted that “what I want to see above all is that this country remains a country where someone can always get rich.” In China, Deng Xiaoping agreed. “To get rich is glorious,” he famously proclaimed. While the period was bookended by events in the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China, it was not just the communist world that was transformed between 1978 and 1991. In the United States and Britain, the Reagan revolution and Margaret Thatcher’s radical reforms heralded a resurgence of free-market ideas and private enterprise, and a rethinking of the role of the state.
Post Wall: Rebuilding the World After 1989 by Kristina Spohr
American Legislative Exchange Council, Andrei Shleifer, anti-communist, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, Bretton Woods, central bank independence, colonial exploitation, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, G4S, Kickstarter, mass immigration, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, open economy, price stability, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, software patent, South China Sea, special economic zone, Thomas L Friedman, Transnistria, uranium enrichment, zero-coupon bond
On China’s reorientation of the economy, see Barry Naughton Growing out of the Plan: Chinese Economic Reform Cambridge UP 1995 pp. 38–55, 59–96 Back to text 54. On Deng’s reform course, see Ezra F. Vogel Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China Harvard UP 2013 pp. 377–476 Back to text 55. Arne Westad ‘The Great Transformation: China in the Long 1970s’ in Niall Ferguson et al. (eds) The Shock of the Global: The 1970s in Perspective Belknap Press 2011 p. 77; see also Vogel Deng Xiaoping pp. 333–48 Back to text 56. United States–People’s Republic of China Agreements Remarks at the Signing Ceremony 17.9.1980 APP. See also Dong Wang ‘US–China Trade, 1971–2012’ Asia-Pacific Journal 11, 24 (June 2013) Back to text 57. Meeting with Deng Xiaoping US Embassy Secret – Cable 16.6.1981 pp. 1–5, DNSA collection: China, 1960–1998; Arne Westad Restless Empire pp. 372–80. See also Henry S.
Shambaugh China’s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation Woodrow Wilson Center Press 2008 pp. 43–5 Back to text 68. See Deng Xiaoping [and Chong-Pin Lin] ‘Deng’s 25 April Speech: “This is not an Ordinary Student Movement but Turmoil”’ World Affairs 152, 3 (Winter 1989–90) [China’s 1989 Upheaval] pp. 138–40. As historian Merle Goldman noted, Deng appeared to console himself with the thought that, unlike Poland, China did not have to worry about the church and the workers, and he had no doubts that China’s intellectuals and students could be handled relatively easily. See Merle Goldman ‘Vengeance in China’ NYRB 9.11.1989 Back to text 69. Philip Taubman ‘Chinese Visit Aims to Break the Soviet Ice’ NYT 1.12.1988; Engel & Radchenko ‘Beijing and Malta, 1989’ p. 186 Back to text 70. Deng’s younger son quoting his father, in Ezra Vogel Deng Xiaoping p. 423 Back to text 71. Politburo meeting 16.7.1987 ‘Following the trip of the delegation of the Supreme Council to China’, printed in V.
GHWBPL NSC – SitRoom TSCF China – part 1 of 5  (OA/ID CF01722–003) From SSO DIA – China: Situation report 22.5.1989 Back to text 142. Claudia Rosett ‘Miss Liberty Lights Her Lamp in Beijing’ WSJ 31.5.1989 Back to text 143. GHWBPL NSC – SitRoom TSCF China – part 2 of 5  (OA/ID CF01722–007) Am. embassy Beijing to Baker Cable – Subj: Sitrep. No. 18 Central party organs endorse Deng line 27.5.1989 pp. 1–2; Vogel Deng Xiaoping pp. 625–7 Back to text 144. Nicholas D. Kristof ‘Troops Attack and Crush Beijing Protest – Thousands Fight Back, Scores Are Killed, Square Is Cleared’ NYT 4.6.1989 Back to text 145. Ibid.; Vogel Deng Xiaoping pp. 625–32; Heather Saul ‘Tiananmen Square: What happened to tank man? What became of the unknown rebel who defied a column of tanks?’ Independent 4.6.2014. See also GHWBPL NSC – SitRoom TSCF China – part 3 of 5  (OA/ID CF01722–011) Am. embassy Beijing to Baker Cable – Subj: Siterep No. 32 The morning of 6.4.1989, 4.6.1989 pp. 1–4; and Am. embassy Beijing to Baker Cable – Subj: Chaos within China 4.6.1989 pp. 1–5; Baker to Am. embassy Beijing Cable – Subj: SSO TF3–3: China Task Force Situation 4.6.1989 p. 1.
Brilliant, Crazy, Cocky: How the Top 1% of Entrepreneurs Profit From Global Chaos by Sarah Lacy
Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, BRICs, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, fear of failure, Firefox, income per capita, intangible asset, Jeff Bezos, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, McMansion, megacity, Network effects, paypal mafia, QWERTY keyboard, risk tolerance, Skype, social web, Steve Jobs, Tony Hsieh, urban planning, web application, women in the workforce, working-age population, zero-sum game
Contents Acknowledgments Chapter 1: Nothing to Lose Chapter 2: The Death of Risk in America Too Much Cash End of a High-Tech Era The Curse of Short-Term Thinking Too Little Reward Israel Chapter 3: How Israel Became a Startup Powerhouse China Chapter 4: Deng Xiaoping, for the Win Chapter 5: Revenge of the Copycats India Chapter 6: India’s Invisible Infrastructure Connections Education Telecommunications The Service Economy Chapter 7: India’s Mighty Microeconomy Brazil Chapter 8: Do You Know Who You Are Talking To? Indonesia Chapter 9: The Emerging World’s Big Secret Rwanda Chapter 10: Africa’s Hottest and Riskiest Startup Epilogue: Beyond Greed and Fear Notes Author’s Note Index Praise for Brilliant, Crazy, Cocky “Anyone who thinks they know entrepreneurship should read Sarah Lacy’s Brilliant, Crazy, Cocky.
If Eisenberg is wrong, this once-unstoppable startup nation risks sliding into irrelevance in an increasingly global entrepreneurship ecosystem. Israel proved that an almost intangible spirit of risk taking could make up for limitations like market size and access to capital. So what happens when you apply a spirit of risk to a domestic market with 1.3 bil ion people? You get modern-day China. Unlike Israel, China doesn’t have to depend on the United States or Silicon Val ey’s money to take off. China Chapter 4 Deng Xiaoping, for the Win It’s a balmy May Saturday night on one of a dozen rooftop bars in between the Drum and Bel Towers. New York native Yan Zhang is in his element. Wearing a crisp white shirt neatly tucked into his low-slung jeans, Zhang is introducing his dozen or so friends—again. He’s excited and slurring his words just enough to show this Saturday night has been just like any other in Beijing.
Unlike the United States, China is making more money than it is consuming. Despite massive infrastructure projects and a vast government-employed workforce, China has put tril ions of dol ars of its GDP into one of the safest investments—U.S. Treasury Bonds. In terms of industry, China’s economic growth is hardly just about government spending. Every industry you can imagine is developing at the same time in modern China. And it al started some 30 years ago with Deng Xiaoping. The powerful leader of China’s communist party was known more for his practicality than for his communist dogma. In the 1970s, Deng almost single-handedly converted a then-closed, backwards, sleeping monolith into a surging 21st-century capitalist superpower. To understand the unique pistons of the Chinese economy, think about the difference between an economy developing in serial—or one wave of modernization at a time, organical y—and an economy where industries that should be at different stages develop al at once, or in parallel.
China's Great Wall of Debt: Shadow Banks, Ghost Cities, Massive Loans, and the End of the Chinese Miracle by Dinny McMahon
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, bank run, business cycle, California gold rush, capital controls, crony capitalism, dark matter, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, eurozone crisis, financial innovation, fixed income, Gini coefficient, if you build it, they will come, income inequality, industrial robot, invisible hand, megacity, money market fund, mortgage debt, new economy, peer-to-peer lending, Ponzi scheme, Ronald Reagan, short selling, Silicon Valley, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, urban planning, working-age population, zero-sum game
Classification: LCC HJ8811 (ebook) | LCC HJ8811 .M36 2018 (print) | DDC 336.3/40951—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017045344 Cover design by David Drummond Author photograph © Jean Lachat/University of Chicago eISBN 978-1-328-84602-0 v1.0218 To my mum and dad, for choosing Chinese Introduction: Fear and Greed IN 1985, HU YAOBANG, the general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and the second-most important man in China, after Deng Xiaoping, visited Australia. In an action that was somewhat unusual for a world leader, Hu didn’t head straight for Canberra, the capital, or any of the major cities. He started his visit by flying into Paraburdoo. Paraburdoo, or “Para” to the locals, is a small mining town just inside the southern edge of the Pilbara, a sprawling band of red earth that starts at the Indian Ocean and stretches deep into the Australian interior.
It’s also one of the hottest places in Australia, and home to swarms of flies—a major concern for the advance team of Chinese officials who visited three weeks ahead of their boss. What drew Hu to this remote, inaccessible corner of Australia was, in fact, the red dirt. Paraburdoo, and the Pilbara more generally, is one of the richest sources of iron ore anywhere in the world. Soon after consolidating power, in 1978, Deng Xiaoping launched a major program to modernize the Chinese economy after decades of stagnation under Mao Zedong. To do so required resources. Hu had flown into Paraburdoo to visit Mount Channar twenty kilometers down the road, an ore-rich hill that would become the first overseas-resources investment by the Chinese state. Standing atop the future mine site, Hu, speaking halting English, called the hill “a treasure house.”
He alleges that his incarceration was the result not of “independent state action, but rather by Silvercorp exerting its influence over the local” police. Put another way, he is claiming that Chinese authorities acted not in the interest of justice or the law but explicitly to help a private company discredit him and to visit retribution upon him. The Chinese government no longer controls the economy as it once did. Before Deng Xiaoping set about reforming the economy, in the 1980s, the price of most things was set by the government, whereas today, only energy prices and a few freight rates are state controlled. Whereas once everyone was employed by the government, these days state firms account for less than 15% of the urban workforce. State monopolies have gone from being the norm to affecting only a handful of strategically important industries, like banking, energy, and telecommunications.
When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Rise of the Middle Kingdom by Martin Jacques
Admiral Zheng, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, Bob Geldof, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, credit crunch, Dava Sobel, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, discovery of the americas, Doha Development Round, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global reserve currency, global supply chain, illegal immigration, income per capita, invention of gunpowder, James Watt: steam engine, joint-stock company, Kenneth Rogoff, land reform, land tenure, lateral thinking, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, new economy, New Urbanism, one-China policy, open economy, Pearl River Delta, pension reform, price stability, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, special economic zone, spinning jenny, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, the scientific method, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Westphalian system, Xiaogang Anhui farmers, zero-sum game
In many respects, it proved a highly effective mechanism for governing, certainly in comparison with the late imperial state and the Nationalists. The key figure was Mao Zedong. Notwithstanding his colossal abuses of power, which resulted in the deaths of millions, as the architect of the revolution and the founder of an independent and unified China, he played the central role in sustaining the popularity and legitimacy of the new regime, and he remains, even today, a venerated figure in the eyes of many Chinese, even more than Deng Xiaoping, who presided over the reform period from 1978. Prior to 1949, the Communist Party’s main base of support lay amongst the peasantry, who constituted the overwhelming majority of the population, rather than in the cities, where the Nationalists were strong. This was very different from the Bolsheviks in the USSR, whose support was concentrated in the cities and was very weak in the countryside.92 The underlying strength and resilience of the new regime was demonstrated by the ability of the Communist Party to renew itself after the death of Mao.93 Despite the calamities of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, both of which Mao had been responsible for, the Communist Party succeeded in restoring its legitimacy amongst the people and then embarking on a very different kind of economic policy, which led to a sustained period of extremely rapid economic growth and a remarkable transformation in China’s situation and prospects.
It is clear from the exchange that maintaining a distinct Chinese core was non-negotiable as far as these students were concerned: the two women, Gao Yi and Huang Yongyi, were shortly off to do doctorates at American universities, while the young men, Wang Jianxiong and Zhang Xiaoming, had landed plum jobs with American firms in Shanghai.111 They were the crème de la crème, the ultimate beneficiaries of Deng Xiaoping’s open-door policy, Chinese winners from globalization. Wang: In the last century Chinese culture became marginal while Western culture became dominant. The Chinese have been much more preoccupied with the past, with their history, than the West. We have to understand why we are behind other countries, why we haven’t been able to develop our country. The West has won a very great victory and this has meant a big crisis for Chinese civilization.
There were brand-new motorways, bridges, factories, warehouses, and a lot more cars; and little sign of the juxtaposition of eras that had so fascinated me two years earlier. I enlisted the help of a couple of officials, but as I described the scenes I wanted to recapture on film they shrugged as if to suggest that they lay in the distant past. For me it was just two years ago; for them it could have been a different century. Guangdong, the brainchild of Deng Xiaoping, was well on the way to becoming the industrial centre of China, full of factories, many Hong Kong-owned, making cheap, mass-produced goods for the global market. This is how and where China’s economic transformation started. Now Guangdong, just fifteen years after that first volcanic eruption, is turning over a new page in its history. It can no longer sustain its old comparative advantage.
Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace by Matthew C. Klein
Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, asset-backed security, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business climate, business cycle, capital controls, centre right, collective bargaining, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deglobalization, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, financial innovation, financial repression, fixed income, full employment, George Akerlof, global supply chain, global value chain, illegal immigration, income inequality, intangible asset, invention of the telegraph, joint-stock company, land reform, Long Term Capital Management, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, manufacturing employment, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, mortgage debt, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, paradox of thrift, passive income, reserve currency, rising living standards, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, Scramble for Africa, sovereign wealth fund, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, trade liberalization, Wolfgang Streeck
While this demographic shift subsequently became an important source of China’s extraordinary economic growth, it would have proven politically and socially devastating had China’s economy continued along the earlier path.4 To prevent collapse, the Chinese economy had to be transformed in a way that eliminated the many constraints on economic productivity that had developed over the preceding decades. Deng Xiaoping’s reforms did just that and, what is more, were immediately successful. Between 1950 and 1977, real output per person in China grew at an average yearly rate of just 2.5 percent. (By comparison, real output per person in Japan, which was also recovering from wartime devastation, grew at an average yearly rate of 7 percent over the same period.) After 1977 and until this decade China has experienced only three years in which yearly GDP growth came in below 7 percent: in 1982, when China grew by 5.2 percent; in 1990, when it grew by 4.0; and in 1991, when it grew by 3.8 percent.5 Under Deng Xiaoping’s program of “reform and opening up,” the government relaxed laws preventing unplanned economic activity, reduced the role of central planning in favor of localized planning, and allowed farmers to keep their surplus food after selling a minimum quota to the state.
As we will explain, starting with China, the answers have nothing to do with cultures of thrift or profligacy. Instead, they have everything to do with the distribution of income and the structure of the global monetary system. F•O•U•R From Tiananmen to the Belt and Road Understanding China’s Surplus The Chinese economy has grown at a breakneck pace for four decades. Initially, this was because Maoism had been replaced with the moderate reformism of Deng Xiaoping and his colleagues after they took over the leadership of the Communist Party in 1978. After nearly a century of war and repression, the latent entrepreneurial energies of the Chinese people were finally allowed to flourish. This produced significant gains in living standards in the decade or so after the start of the 1978 reforms. It also produced difficult political problems that were subsequently suppressed in exchange for a new model that generated rapid growth at all costs.
Unproductive investments have failed to pay for themselves.2 The danger is that the Chinese government, having reached the limits of its ability to generate rapid growth through debt-funded investment, will once again attempt to shift the costs of its economic model to the rest of the world through trade surpluses and financial outflows. The only way to prevent this is to rebalance the Chinese economy so that household consumption is prioritized over investment. That means reversing all of the existing mechanisms transferring purchasing power from Chinese workers and retirees to companies and the government—reforms at least as dramatic and politically difficult as the reforms implemented by Deng Xiaoping beginning in 1978. Unfortunately for China, the choices of the past few decades have become politically entrenched. It is easy for an antidemocratic authoritarian regime to suppress workers’ rights and shift spending power from consumers to large companies. Stalin did it, after all. The problem is that years of state-sponsored income concentration creates a potent group of “vested interests”—Premier Li Keqiang’s preferred term—that will fiercely resist any reforms that would shift spending power back to consumers.
Overbooked: The Exploding Business of Travel and Tourism by Elizabeth Becker
airport security, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, BRICs, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, collective bargaining, colonial rule, computer age, corporate governance, Costa Concordia, Deng Xiaoping, European colonialism, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Frank Gehry, global village, happiness index / gross national happiness, haute cuisine, indoor plumbing, Kickstarter, Masdar, Murano, Venice glass, open borders, out of africa, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, statistical model, sustainable-tourism, the market place, union organizing, urban renewal, wage slave, young professional, éminence grise
For one talk on tourism: China National Tourism Administration, “Deng Xiaoping on Tourism,” 1979, http://www.chinatourism.ch/eg/event_show.php?id=28. China’s rule of Tibet: “The Effect of Tourism on Tibet,” Free Tibet, http://www.freetibet.org/about/tourism. “Water pollution in the Lijiang River”: Honggen Xiao, “The Discourse of Power.” China asked for help to make domestic: Author interview with Patrice Tedjini, May 28, 2009. “We took a group from the Atmospheric Research Center”: Author interview with Barbara Dawson, January 18, 2012. Deng scored his first impressive economic victory: James Mann, About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship with China, from Nixon to Clinton (New York: Knopf, 1999), p. 156. Great Wall Hotel: Richard Baum, Burying Mao: Chinese Politics in the Age of Deng Xiaoping (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), p. 169.
All those decades of revolution competed with the traditional image of China, with its Confucian scholars, blue and white porcelain, scroll paintings, shimmering silk robes and the snaking Great Wall. In the 1980s, Chinese leaders radically changed direction and jumped into the global economy. The goal was nothing less than to make China one of the world’s new superpowers. The Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping declared that “poverty is not socialism. To be rich is glorious.” Factories sprang up along the coast and then in the interior. They made automobiles, computers, televisions, furniture, toys and clothing, especially clothing. Whole cities were devoted to the manufacturing of socks or underwear or sweaters. Thanks to very cheap labor and technological breakthroughs, from container ships to the Internet, China could ship around the globe and wipe out competition on every continent.
From the beginning of the seismic economic reforms, China’s leaders believed that tourism would be critical to its economic development and play a major “diplomatic” role, winning over foreign tourists with China’s preeminence as one of the world’s greatest ancient cultures and wowing them with its modern transformation. They would control that message by overseeing nearly every aspect of tourism. China took to heart the boast of the tourism industry that every foreign visitor was a potential citizen ambassador to the world. No one better exemplifies this approach than Deng Xiaoping, China’s supreme leader who opened up the country to the world. Shortly after he wrested power in late 1978, Deng gave five talks on the central role of tourism. The titles don’t translate well: “Tourism Should Become a Comprehensive Industry,” and “There’s a Lot To Be Achieved Through Tourism.” But the overall message was strong. Tourism was essential to China’s new “open door” policy to rejoin the world and become appreciated and respected again as a major power.
Destined for War: America, China, and Thucydides's Trap by Graham Allison
9 dash line, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, borderless world, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, facts on the ground, Flash crash, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, game design, George Santayana, Haber-Bosch Process, industrial robot, Internet of things, Kenneth Rogoff, liberal world order, long peace, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, one-China policy, Paul Samuelson, Peace of Westphalia, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, special economic zone, spice trade, the rule of 72, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade route, UNCLOS, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
David was by this point leaning forward across the table as I opened a report from someone whose incisive, far-sighted understanding could inform Washington’s response to the greatest geopolitical challenge of our lifetime. As I said to the new director, this individual had succeeded beyond all expectations. He had seen up close China’s convulsions from the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution in the 1960s to Deng Xiaoping’s capitalist pivot in the 1980s. Indeed, he had established serious working relationships with many of the people who governed China, including China’s future president, Xi Jinping. I began reading the first set of questions from fifty pages of Q&A with this asset: Are China’s current leaders serious about displacing the United States as the number-one power in Asia in the foreseeable future?
Uniquely, as Lee studied China and its leaders, they also studied him and his country. In the late 1970s, when Deng began to think about leading China on a fast march to the market, Chinese leaders looked to Singapore as a laboratory in not only economic but also political development. Lee spent thousands of hours in direct conversations with Chinese presidents, prime ministers, cabinet officers, and rising leaders of his “neighbor to the North.”2 Every Chinese leader from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping has called him “mentor,” a term of ultimate respect in Chinese culture. My biggest takeaway from Lee for the new CIA director addresses the most troubling question about China’s trajectory: What does its dramatic transformation mean for the global balance of power? Lee answered pointedly: “The size of China’s displacement of the world balance is such that the world must find a new balance.
At the core of these national goals is a civilizational creed that sees China as the center of the universe. In the Chinese language, the word for China, zhong guo (中国), means “Middle Kingdom.” “Middle” refers not to the space between other, rival kingdoms, but to all that lies between heaven and earth. As Lee summarized the world view shared by hundreds of Chinese officials who sought his advice (including every leader since Deng Xiaoping), they “recall a world in which China was dominant and other states related to them as supplicants to a superior, as vassals came to Beijing bearing tribute.”8 In this narrative, the rise of the West in recent centuries is a historical anomaly, reflecting China’s technological and military weakness when it faced dominant imperial powers. Xi Jinping has promised his fellow citizens: no more. THE WORLD ACCORDING TO CHINA As befits the oldest continuous civilization on earth, the Chinese have a uniquely long sense of history.
The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World by Steven Radelet
"Robert Solow", Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, business climate, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, clean water, colonial rule, creative destruction, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, global supply chain, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, John Snow's cholera map, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, land reform, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, off grid, oil shock, out of africa, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, special economic zone, standardized shipping container, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, women in the workforce, working poor
A remarkable 98 percent of registered voters turned out over five days to select delegates to a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution and set the stage for presidential elections and the formation of a new government.1 The Namibians lining up that day had no way of knowing it, but their actions would reverberate far beyond their borders and mark the beginning of a slow but steady sweep of democracy across Africa. They could not know that exactly as they were voting, forces were under way that would bring about some of the most important changes in world history. Far to the east that same day, Deng Xiaoping was resigning as chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, his last formal post in the Communist Party leadership. Deng had transformed the Chinese economy by abandoning Mao Tse-tung’s rigid Communism and adopting a more mixed, market-based economy. His resignation marked a key political change: It effectively ended the tradition of Chinese leaders ruling like emperors until death.2 It also shifted power from a single supreme leader to the group leadership of the party and effectively marked the beginning of de facto term limits.
Poverty only deepened during the violent days of the Cultural Revolution (1966–1976). In 1976 Mao single-handedly and dramatically changed the direction of global poverty with one simple act: he died. While Mao had overseen some economic growth alongside dramatic improvements in health, he left China a poor country. In 1981 there were 838 million Chinese living in extreme poverty—fully 84 percent of its population. But as Deng Xiaoping began to introduce wide-ranging economic reforms in the 1980s, starting with the decollectivization of agriculture, economic growth accelerated and the number of extreme poor began to fall. By 1993—just twelve years later—the number of extreme poor had dropped to 646 million, and the share of the population in extreme poverty had dropped to 55 percent. Incredibly, following that fast start, the pace accelerated even more, so that by 2011, the number of extreme poor in China had dropped to 84 million, and the share had plummeted to just 6 percent.
There is still a long way to go, but it is an enormously important start. * * * I. The Meiji Restoration was a political revolution that ended the Tokugawa shogunate and consolidated control of Japan under the emperor Meiji, resulting in enormous political, social, and economic changes in Japan in the decades that followed. THREE THE WEALTH OF A NEW GENERATION To get rich is glorious. —Deng Xiaoping WHEN MOZAMBIQUE’S CIVIL WAR ENDED in 1992, the country was in ruins.1 ARMED rebellion against Portuguese colonial rule started in the 1960s, but conflict intensified significantly after the 1974 coup in Lisbon led to Portugal’s withdrawal. When the Portuguese pulled out, “they did so with spite, sabotaging vehicles and pouring concrete down wells, elevator shafts, and toilets, leaving the country in disarray,” according to David Smith of the Guardian.2 The new government in Maputo established one-party rule, aligned itself with the Soviet Union, and provided support to the liberation movements in South Africa and Rhodesia, while the governments of South Africa and Rhodesia countered by financing an armed rebellion to fight the Mozambican government.
The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? by Ian Bremmer
affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, BRICs, British Empire, centre right, collective bargaining, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, diversified portfolio, Doha Development Round, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global reserve currency, global supply chain, invisible hand, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, laissez-faire capitalism, low skilled workers, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, new economy, offshore financial centre, open economy, race to the bottom, reserve currency, risk tolerance, shareholder value, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trade route, tulip mania, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game
On December 25, 1991, a dazed Mikhail Gorbachev looked deeply into the lens of a single television camera and told his people that they were living in a new world. Proud that he had helped guide the Soviet people “toward the market economy,” he resigned as Soviet president, shuffled the papers before him, and waited for aides to signal that he was off the air. Six days later, the Soviet Union went out of business. Within three weeks, Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping had embarked on his famous “southern tour,” which created new momentum behind free-market reform in China. Within a year, even Fidel Castro had accepted the need for a little capitalist experimentation. Former Warsaw Pact states began the march toward membership in NATO and the European Union. Free-market capitalism looked to have permanently carried the day. But as Russians discovered the hard way over the course of the 1990s, it’s a long step from a command economy to free-market capitalism.
We have one important piece of experience of the past thirty years, that is to ensure that both the visible hand and invisible hand are given full play in regulating the market forces.”11 Three decades ago, the invisible hand was truly invisible in China. When Mao Zedong died in 1976, he left behind a society in turmoil, an economy in ruins, and a ruling party in real danger of irrelevance. Within two years, paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and his premier, Zhao Ziyang, overcame considerable resistance from senior Communist Party officials to launch a slow but deliberate plan to experiment with capitalism. For China’s economy and the ruling party’s future, it was a matter of necessity, and without Deng’s personal and political talents, the changes might never have been made. Years before Mikhail Gorbachev first charmed a Western audience, a willingness to move beyond Mao and an openness to Western culture transformed Deng into one of the American media’s most improbable celebrities of all time.
Since 1978, the Chinese Communist Party leadership has, by fits and starts, enabled market forces to shape the country’s domestic economy and opened China to foreign trade and investment. In the process, it has leveraged its enormous population and low labor costs to become a fast-emerging economic powerhouse. But it has also created internal vulnerabilities that Mao Zedong-era bureaucrats could never have imagined. Over the centuries, China has endured extended periods of chaos and self-destruction. It’s possible that as Deng Xiaoping weighed the decision to send tanks into Tiananmen Square, he thought of the Cultural Revolution, the Mao-inspired decade of violence that crippled his son, drove his brother to suicide, and temporarily cost him his freedom. When future Chinese leaders face the threat of large-scale disorder, they may well remember the costs of Tiananmen Square itself. The Chinese leadership’s fear of anarchy is not abstract; it’s a powerful force that prevents China’s state capitalists from fully embracing free markets.
A History of Future Cities by Daniel Brook
Berlin Wall, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, carbon footprint, Celtic Tiger, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, Edward Glaeser, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, glass ceiling, indoor plumbing, joint-stock company, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, open economy, Parag Khanna, Pearl River Delta, Potemkin village, profit motive, rent control, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, starchitect, trade route, urban planning, urban renewal, working poor
Not only were the symbols of a century of foreign domination eradicated but so, too, were relics of China’s thousands of years of civilization before the unequal treaties, now tarred as a “feudal” pre-Communist culture irrelevant to New China. Rather than come to terms with its past, China erased it. With Mao’s death in 1976, a nation exhausted and impoverished after a decade adrift sought pragmatic leadership. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping, whose cosmopolitan youth studying in France and working as a Party organizer in Jazz Age Shanghai had led to his tarring as a “capitalist roader” during the Cultural Revolution, took power. For all his Shanghai values—his gaze fixed on the market and the outside world—Deng was wary of Shanghai itself. The city had been the birthplace of Chinese capitalism but also the cradle of the Cultural Revolution that had destabilized the country.
As Yeltsin struggled with the massive task of moving a vast nation dotted with collective farms and unproductive state-owned factories toward a market economy, Mayor Sobchak rushed ahead with his vision for St. Petersburg. He called his city “the only Russian door to Europe” and dreamed of a St. Petersburg restored to its prerevolutionary role as Russia’s banking and financial hub. Sobchak hoped to turn St. Petersburg into a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of the type he had seen on a trip to Deng Xiaoping’s China in his days as a professor—a city with special business regulations to woo foreign investment. The appeal of the SEZ concept for Sobchak was obvious: his West-facing city could finally be decoupled from Russia’s backward hinterlands. Under Sobchak’s leadership, the city privatized its local businesses much faster than the rest of Russia. His old university partnered with the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, to open a school of management, and Duke University opened an executive training program for businessmen in the city.
But one thing is certain: despite the miserable slog of Russian history, as long as there is St. Petersburg—a city where even at midnight, a glimmer of sunlight still peeks out over the horizon—there is hope. 9 THE HEAD OF THE DRAGON Shanghai, 1989–Present Pudong skyline, seen from a demolition site in the former French Concession When Shanghai’s leaders looked out over the new New China born of Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms, it seemed history had gone off the rails. It wasn’t Shanghai, the city that invented Chinese capitalism, but Deng’s new experimental instant metropolis, Shenzhen, on the border with Hong Kong, that was brimming with factories and drawing thousands of ambitious young people from across the country. It was as if Deng had held a great national casting call for China’s next business hub and upstart Shenzhen had gotten the part Shanghai assumed she was destined to play.
Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order by Bruno Maçães
active measures, Admiral Zheng, autonomous vehicles, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, cloud computing, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, different worldview, Donald Trump, energy security, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global supply chain, global value chain, industrial cluster, industrial robot, Internet of things, Kenneth Rogoff, land reform, liberal world order, Malacca Straits, one-China policy, Pearl River Delta, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, trade liberalization, trade route, zero-sum game
But its logic and structure are also a natural—almost inevitable—development of the recent trajectory in China’s development and cannot be understood in isolation from that context. The Belt and Road did not spring from the earth fully formed, ready to take on the world. It has a history or, better put, a story. That must be the starting point for our exploration. * * * As China embarked on its watershed “reform and opening up” under Deng Xiaoping, Chinese foreign policy had to adapt to the new focus on economic development. The possibility—always present with Mao—of a coming war with the Soviet Union or the United States receded from view. Deng’s main political achievement was to convince the Chinese Communist Party that the country’s national interest now lay in developing peaceful and even friendly relations with the capitalist world.
China Merchants, the company running both Doraleh and Hambantota in Sri Lanka, has a long history steeped in the structures of global capitalism. Founded in 1873, its primary purpose was to compete with foreign companies that operated steamships in Chinese waters. Its founder, Li Hongzhang, saw an opportunity to draw Chinese capital invested in foreign firms to a new company. By 1877 it owned thirty steamships and could boast the highest tonnage among steamship companies in China—just the achievement Deng Xiaoping would have envied at the beginning of his efforts to modernize China’s merchant navy a hundred years later. Remarkably, having survived for almost 150 years through a number of radical transformations—in 1951 the Central Government reorganized the Shanghai Head Office of China Merchants into the People’s Navigation Company and merged it with the General Navigation Office under the Ministry of Communications—China Merchants has emerged as a core company of the Belt and Road, whose main presuppositions are those held by Li Hongzhang in the nineteenth century: the global economy embodies deep structures of power and if China wants to occupy the center of the system and infuse it with its own ideas, it needs to think and act globally and compete with foreigners on the same scale.
In an essay published in the Guangzhou journal Open Times in January 2018, the Peking University constitutional lawyer Jiang Shigong tries to show why Xi Jinping’s thought provides the right framework for a new historical period when China will occupy the center of the world system. ‘Standing up’, ‘getting rich’, and ‘becoming powerful’ are ways to divide the histories of the Party and the Republic, referring respectively to the Mao Zedong era, the Deng Xiaoping era, and the Xi Jinping era that we are currently entering. History does not unfold naturally; it is created by “leaders leading people.” Western thought may attempt to obscure this truth, in which case it is Western thought that must be overcome. As Jiang puts it, the construction of China’s rule of law gradually fell into the erroneous zone of Western concepts in the process of studying the Western rule of law, and consciously or not, the notions of ‘rule of law’ and ‘rule of man’ came to be seen as antagonistic.
China into Africa: trade, aid, and influence by Robert I. Rotberg
barriers to entry, BRICs, colonial rule, corporate governance, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, global supply chain, global value chain, income inequality, Khartoum Gordon, land reform, megacity, microcredit, offshore financial centre, one-China policy, out of africa, Pearl River Delta, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Scramble for Africa, South China Sea, special economic zone, structural adjustment programs, trade route, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
.), Strategic Reports on the Development of Sino-African Relationship in the 21st Century (Beijing, 2000), 12–13. 12. Li Liqing, “Chinese Communist Party’s Contacts with African Political Parties: History and Present,” West Asia and Africa, Issue 3 (2006), 16–19. 13. Collection of Documents of the Twelfth Assembly of the Communist Party of China (Beijing, 1982), 50. 14. China hosted the Third Asian Parties International Conference in 2004. See also Huang Wendeng, “Deng Xiaoping Theory and Sino-Latin American Party Relations,” Journal of Latin American Studies, Issue 6 (1998), 1–7. 15. Jiang, Records on Visits to Foreign Parties, 670–671. As the vice minister of the International Department of the CPC, Jiang recorded his eleven visits to sub-Saharan African countries in the book. 16. Li, “Chinese Communist Party’s Contacts,” 16–19; “Furthering the Development of Sino-Africa Relationship: Reports on 5th African Parties’ Seminar,” Contemporary World, Issue 6 (2002), 18–19; Zhong Weiyun, “The Contemporary Situation of Parties in Sub-Saharan Africa and Sino-African Parties Relationship,” in Center for African Studies of Peking University (ed.), China and Africa, 129–142. 17.
The attraction of diaspora Chinese capital from Hong Kong and Taiwan led to the integration of these economies with the mainland, despite the political separation and differences between the respective governments in Beijing, Hong Kong, and Taipei. SEZs also served as the model for market liberalization across China. This process of rapid liberalization continues to be introduced across western, southwestern, and northeastern China. The success of the SEZs gave credibility to Deng Xiaoping’s reform program and laid the foundation for the commitment to liberal market forces that the PRC continues to pursue to this day. China’s SEZ Model Moves Offshore It is nearly three decades since the inception of SEZs, and China is currently establishing SEZs in targeted foreign economies. Adapted from China’s own domestic experience in running preferential economic zones, the PRC’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) is encouraging Chinese enterprises to “go global” by locating their foreign operations in designated Chinese SEZs in the global economy.
Tanzanian SEZ: A Logistics Hub Following the commitment made by the PRC to establish three to five SEZs in Africa before the next FOCAC summit in late 2009, the Chinese government has formally announced two such zones in countries that are not only strategically and commercially important but also have enjoyed a long relationship of political trust with the People’s Republic. One is the aforementioned Zambian SEZ. Beijing continues to hold former Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda in high regard. During his twenty-seven years in the presidency (1964–1991), Kaunda cemented a close political relationship with a number of generations of China’s leadership including Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai, and Deng Xiaoping. He visited China four times as president of Zambia. The same long relationship was built between the PRC and Tanzania. Julius Nyerere visited China as president of Tanzania five times from 1964 to 1985 and on eight occasions as chairman of the South Commission between 1987 and 1997. Like Kaunda, Nyerere had a special relationship with China, and this contributed to China constructing the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (Tanzam Railway) in the 1970s.
Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles by Ruchir Sharma
3D printing, affirmative action, Albert Einstein, American energy revolution, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, BRICs, British Empire, business climate, business cycle, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, cloud computing, collective bargaining, colonial rule, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, eurozone crisis, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, housing crisis, income inequality, indoor plumbing, inflation targeting, informal economy, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, land reform, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, mass immigration, megacity, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Nelson Mandela, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, quantitative easing, reserve currency, Robert Gordon, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, software is eating the world, sovereign wealth fund, The Great Moderation, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, working-age population, zero-sum game
The nature of emerging-market vulnerability to troubles in the West also takes many forms. Many Asian countries still depend on exports to the West, while several eastern European countries rely more on lending from the West to fund growth. Not All Trees Grow to the Sky There has also been a halt to the reforms that set many developing countries on the “emerging” path in the first place. After Deng Xiaoping began experimenting with free-market reform in the early 1980s, China went on to launch a “big bang” reform every four to five years, and each new opening—first to private farming, then to private businesses, then to foreign businesses—set off a new spurt of growth. But that cycle has run its course. The unthinking faith in the hot growth stories of the last decade also ignores the high odds against success.
These costs are starting to spill over into higher inflation, and Beijing has openly acknowledged that all this points to a slowdown in the economy. Yet such is the overblown faith in China’s economic stewards that the China bulls seem to think Beijing can achieve growth targets the country itself no longer aims to achieve. The amazing story of China’s relentless reform—which had persisted in good times and bad since the landmark reign of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and his immediate successors—appears to have exhausted itself in the last few years. China boomed the old-fashioned way, by building roads to connect factories to ports, by developing telecommunication networks to connect business to business, and by putting underemployed peasants to work in better jobs at urban factories. Now all these drivers are reaching a mature stage, as the pool of surplus rural labor dries up, factory employment reaches maximum capacity, and the highway network reaches a total length of 46,000 miles, the second largest in the world behind the 62,000 miles in the United States.
To control the runaway housing market, Beijing has been hiking interest rates through the central bank, which will slow investment and overall economic growth. Outsiders who think Chinese leaders care only about fast growth overlook their mounting concern about the anger over inflation, and the threats to social stability. Beijing recently banned billboards advertising luxury goods, not to restrain spending but to avoid stirring up resentment. Whereas Deng Xiaoping proclaimed that “it’s glorious to be rich,” his successors are making sure no one gets too rich. Not a single billionaire in China has a net worth of more than $10 billion; compare that to eleven billionaires with a net worth of more than $10 billion in Russia and six in India, which have far smaller economies. Only one tycoon who made China’s list of top-ten billionaires five years ago was still on the roster in 2011.
Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty by Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson
"Robert Solow", Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, Atahualpa, banking crisis, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, BRICs, British Empire, central bank independence, clean water, collective bargaining, colonial rule, conceptual framework, Corn Laws, creative destruction, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, discovery of the americas, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, financial independence, financial innovation, financial intermediation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Francisco Pizarro, full employment, income inequality, income per capita, indoor plumbing, invention of movable type, invisible hand, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, land reform, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, minimum wage unemployment, Mohammed Bouazizi, Paul Samuelson, price stability, profit motive, Rosa Parks, Scramble for Africa, Simon Kuznets, spice trade, spinning jenny, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, trade liberalization, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, union organizing, upwardly mobile, Washington Consensus, working poor
In the 1960s, he propagated the Cultural Revolution, which led to the mass persecution of intellectuals and educated people—anyone whose party loyalty might be doubted. This again led to terror and a huge waste of the society’s talent and resources. In the same way, current Chinese growth has nothing to do with Chinese values or changes in Chinese culture; it results from a process of economic transformation unleashed by the reforms implemented by Deng Xiaoping and his allies, who, after Mao Zedong’s death, gradually abandoned socialist economic policies and institutions, first in agriculture and then in industry. Just like the geography hypothesis, the culture hypothesis is also unhelpful for explaining other aspects of the lay of the land around us today. There are of course differences in beliefs, cultural attitudes, and values between the United States and Latin America, but just like those that exist between Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, or those between South and North Korea, these differences are a consequence of the two places’ different institutions and institutional histories.
China, for example, is one of the countries that made the switch from economic policies that caused poverty and the starvation of millions to those encouraging economic growth. But, as we will discuss in greater detail later, this did not happen because the Chinese Communist Party finally understood that the collective ownership of agricultural land and industry created terrible economic incentives. Instead, Deng Xiaoping and his allies, who were no less self-interested than their rivals but who had different interests and political objectives, defeated their powerful opponents in the Communist Party and masterminded a political revolution of sorts, radically changing the leadership and direction of the party. Their economic reforms, which created market incentives in agriculture and then subsequently in industry, followed from this political revolution.
Though scholars debate the role of Mao’s policy compared with the impact of droughts at the same time, nobody doubts the central role of the Great Leap Forward in contributing to the death of between twenty and forty million people. We don’t know precisely how many, because China under Mao did not collect the numbers that would have documented the atrocities. Per capita income fell by around one-quarter. One consequence of the Great Leap Forward was that a senior member of the Communist Party, Deng Xiaoping, a very successful general during the revolution, who led an “anti-rightist” campaign resulting in the execution of many “enemies of the revolution,” had a change of heart. At a conference in Guangzhou in the south of China in 1961, Deng argued, “No matter whether the cat is black or white, if it catches mice, it’s a good cat.” It did not matter whether policies appeared communist or not; China needed policies that would encourage production so that it could feed its people.
The Return of Marco Polo's World: War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-First Century by Robert D. Kaplan
Admiral Zheng, always be closing, California gold rush, collective bargaining, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, Haight Ashbury, kremlinology, load shedding, mass immigration, megacity, one-China policy, Parag Khanna, Pax Mongolica, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, trade route, Westphalian system, Yom Kippur War
Had they justified the arms transfers purely in terms of helping embattled post-Holocaust Jewry—rather than in terms of power politics as they did—it would have made for a much weaker argument in Washington, where officials rightly had American interests at heart more than Israeli ones. George McGovern was possibly a more ethical man than either Nixon or Kissinger. But had he been elected president in 1972, would he have acted so wisely and so decisively during the 1973 Middle East war? The fact is, individual perfection, as Machiavelli knew, is not necessarily synonymous with public virtue. Then there is the case of Deng Xiaoping. Deng approved the brutal suppression of students at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in 1989. For that he is not respected among humanitarians in the West. But the consolidation of Communist Party control that followed the clampdown allowed for Deng’s methodical, market-oriented reforms to continue for a generation in China. Perhaps never before in recorded economic history have so many people seen such a dramatic rise in living standards, with an attendant rise in personal (if not political) freedoms, in so short a time frame.
Aside from the successful interventions in the Balkans, the greatest humanitarian gesture in my own lifetime was President Richard Nixon’s trip to the People’s Republic of China in 1972, engineered by Kissinger. By dropping the notion that Taiwan was the real China, by giving China protection against the Soviet Union, and by providing assurances against an economically resurgent Japan, the two men helped place China in a position to devote itself to peaceful economic development; China’s economic rise, facilitated by Deng Xiaoping, would lift much of Asia out of poverty. And as more than one billion people in the Far East saw a dramatic improvement in living standards, personal freedom effloresced. Pundits chastised Kissinger for saying, in 1973, that Jewish emigration from the Soviet Union was “not an American concern.” But as J. J. Goldberg of The Jewish Daily Forward was careful to note (even while being very critical of Kissinger’s cynicism on the subject), “Emigration rose dramatically under Kissinger’s detente policy”—but “plummeted” after the 1974 passage of the Jackson-Vanik amendment, which made an open emigration policy a precondition for normal U.S.
More generally, Mearsheimer’s very cold, mathematical, states-as-billiard-balls approach ignores messy details—like the personalities of Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and Slobodan Milošević—that have had a monumental impact in deciding how wars and crises turn out. International relations is as much about understanding Shakespeare—and the human passions and intrigues that Shakespeare exposes—as it is about understanding political science theories. It matters greatly that Deng Xiaoping was both utterly ruthless and historically perceptive, so that he could set China in motion to become such an economic and military juggernaut in the first place. Manifest Destiny owes as much to the canniness of President James K. Polk as it does to Mearsheimer’s laws of historical determinism. But given the limits of social science theories, even as we rely on them to help us make some sense of the Bruegelesque jumble of history, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics is a signal triumph.
Why geography matters: three challenges facing America : climate change, the rise of China, and global terrorism by Harm J. De Blij
agricultural Revolution, airport security, Anton Chekhov, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial exploitation, complexity theory, computer age, crony capitalism, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Eratosthenes, European colonialism, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, illegal immigration, Internet Archive, John Snow's cholera map, Khyber Pass, manufacturing employment, megacity, Mercator projection, MITM: man-in-the-middle, Nelson Mandela, out of africa, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, special economic zone, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, UNCLOS, UNCLOS
If Nixon's opening to China caused misgivings in the West (and, to be sure, in the Soviet Union, no longer on China's ideological page), it also contributed to qualms in China itself. Mao adamantly opposed changing the political or the economic system that had made the People's Republic what it was. Zhou was in no position to change Mao's mind, but as premier he was able to promote party leaders who took a more pragmatic view of China's needs. One of those leaders was the man would guide post-Mao China from torpor to tiger: Deng Xiaoping. In the fateful year of 1976, when power struggles and natural disasters buffeted the state, Deng readied policies that would combine continued communist dictatorship with market-driven economics. Within decades, not distant generations, China was a power to be reckoned with on the global stage. By the turn of the century it was a nuclear power, an economic heavyweight, a military juggernaut with the world's largest standing army and a growing navy, and a political force with increasing influence in its own backyard and beyond.
Gleaming new airports, high-speed intercity highways, multilane urban ringroads, state-of-the-art suspension bridges, hydroelectric projects, vast factory complexes, and modern container-port facilities reflected China's burgeoning economic power. Foreign investment from Japan, the United States, even (indirectly) from Taiwan propelled the process, and on the insatiable American market Chinese goods sold in quantities unimag-ined before, creating a huge trade surplus for Beijing and financial reserves undreamed of even by Deng Xiaoping himself. With economic strength comes political clout, and by the turn of the century the outlines of a new geopolitical relationship between the United States and China were visible. After the Second World War, the Japanese had become allies of the United States; after the Korean War, South Korea achieved democracy as well as economic success. American troops remained based in both Japan and South Korea.
Mao often referred to any control of population growth as a capitalist plot to weaken communist societies, and, like his cohorts in Moscow, he encouraged mothers to have numerous children (in the 1960s, Soviet women bearing ten children or more were designated "Heroines of the State"). As a result, following the end of the Great Leap Forward, population growth in China during the 1960s and 1970s was as high as 3 percent, and while the official figures are unreliable, China was adding as many as 20 million per year, rushing toward 1 billion. When Deng Xiaoping's pragmatists took over following Mao's death, one of their priorities was to get this spiral under control, and they instituted their infamous "One Child Only" policy to achieve this. Today, China's official growth rate is 0.7 percent, which, on a base of more than 1.3 billion, still results in an annual increase of 9 million. 138 WHY GEOGRAPHY MATTERS The second Maoist initiative was to try to erase the legacies of China's most influential philosopher and teacher, Confucius (Kongfuzi or Kongzi in modern Chinese).
The Socialist Manifesto: The Case for Radical Politics in an Era of Extreme Inequality by Bhaskar Sunkara
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Bernie Sanders, British Empire, business climate, business cycle, capital controls, centre right, Charles Lindbergh, collective bargaining, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, Donald Trump, equal pay for equal work, feminist movement, Ferguson, Missouri, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, gig economy, Gunnar Myrdal, happiness index / gross national happiness, Honoré de Balzac, income inequality, inventory management, labor-force participation, land reform, land value tax, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, Neil Kinnock, new economy, Occupy movement, postindustrial economy, precariat, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, telemarketer, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, union organizing, Upton Sinclair, urban renewal, We are the 99%
His was a kind of anti-Stalinist Stalinism, eager to take risks for ideological reasons, confident that he was one with the masses and that the masses demanded not peace but constant upheaval. Mao’s ally, defense minister Lin Biao, started things off by encouraging students to criticize “bourgeois liberalism and Khrushchevism” in late 1965, though the real targets appeared to be head of state Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping. Earlier that year, Mao also had his wife, Jiang Qing, and future Gang of Four member Yao Wenyuan denounce key Beijing officials. Wrestling control of press organs in early 1966, Mao established the Cultural Revolution Group. He used state media and a May politburo meeting to announce that the bourgeoisie had snuck “into the Party, the government, the army, and various spheres of culture.” These clever foes would, like Khrushchev, “wave the red flag to oppose the red flag.”
His practical objective, however, was complete. Mao no longer had to apologize: he was exalted as a demigod, with “Marxism-Leninism–Mao Zedong Thought” now constitutionally enshrined. Liu, once the second most important person in China, was arrested and subjected to public beatings and denunciations, contributing to his November 1969 death. He wouldn’t be allowed to do to Mao what Khrushchev had done to Stalin. Deng Xiaoping was a Red Guard victim, too. He was forced to reeducate himself through manual labor at a tractor factory in Jiangxi, where he once helped the party survive in the 1930s. That Deng—China’s Bukharin—wasn’t executed outright like the real Bukharin suggests another, admittedly small difference between Mao and Stalin, but he suffered for years. (Deng’s son was tortured and thrown out of a four-story window, surviving as a paraplegic.)
The CPC had begun to see its neighbor, the Soviet Union, as its primary rival and sought any advantage against it, while dressing up its new course in dogmatic Marxist language. A party dedicated to national development above all else now had a nationalist foreign policy to match. AFTER MAO’S DEATH in 1976, the hard-line Gang of Four were his most zealous defenders and tried to carry on the “continuous revolution.” Yet Deng Xiaoping eventually won a power struggle with them and challenged Maoist policies. Pro-market experiments to restore productivity were expanded, but the Great Helmsman himself could not be repudiated. As Deng would say in 1978, “We will never do to Mao what the Soviets did to Stalin.” Mao’s body lies embalmed in Tiananmen Square, and his portrait is still on the Gate of Heavenly Peace and Chinese currency.
The Great Race: The Global Quest for the Car of the Future by Levi Tillemann
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, car-free, carbon footprint, cleantech, creative destruction, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, demand response, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, factory automation, global value chain, hydrogen economy, index card, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, manufacturing employment, market design, megacity, Nixon shock, obamacare, oil shock, Ralph Nader, RFID, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, smart cities, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Tesla Model S, too big to fail, Unsafe at Any Speed, zero-sum game, Zipcar
Its early trucks were based on the Soviet ZIS 150—a four-ton military vehicle produced at the Stalin Auto Plant in Moscow.4 And the ZIS design had actually been copied from Ford years earlier.5 The plush government limousines that Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai commuted in were also knockoffs—based on an old Mercedes. During the 1960s, while Japan was feverishly consolidating its automotive producers to gain scale and technological competence, China was building miniature clones of Soviet auto factories throughout the country’s interior to protect its industry from foreign military attack. When Deng Xiaoping began his economic reforms in the 1970s, China’s government arranged for a manufacturing partnership between a struggling American Motors Company—the maker of Hummer and Jeep—and the Beijing Automotive Industrial Corporation. It set the stage for many more Sino-foreign joint ventures to come. This kind of manufacturing partnership—where foreigners supplied automotive technology and manufacturing expertise in exchange for access to mainland markets—dominated Chinese auto production from the 1980s through the 2010s.
Foreign companies worried about handing over their blueprints to Chinese partners, but the market potential was too alluring. So one after the other, foreigners fell in line. China was a wild new world, completely uncharted, and everyone wanted in on the game. There were Jeeps, VWs, and Citroëns, but also a number of oddballs. One, called Panda Motor Corporation, was funded through a $250 million investment from the Korean reverend Sun Myung Moon’s Unification Church.6 As Deng Xiaoping’s reforms took hold and the country’s central government released the reins of economic control, cities and provinces shook off the shackles of central planning and became increasingly entrepreneurial. Many local governments started to build their own automotive concerns—some of them based around the carcasses of Leninist factory relics.7 They did not produce quality vehicles. Early diesel trucks had only one cylinder—as opposed to six, eight, or ten in U.S. or European trucks—and they spewed so much black soot that foreigners called them “ink fish.”8 And China’s market was still not producing at scale.
That month, four of China’s most prominent scientists—Wang Daheng, Wang Ganchang, Yang Jiachi, and Chen Fangyun—presented a report to the Communist Party titled “on the follow-up study of foreign strategic high-tech development proposals.”9 The study made what should have been an obvious point: China’s technology had fallen badly behind that of the West. The unsurprising assessment was still an embarrassment to the state—and its critique of the Chinese system was a serious risk for its authors. But the China of 1986 was far more open to criticism than it had been under Mao. So, instead of muzzling the scientists and shunning the technology manifesto, Deng Xiaoping and his reformers embraced it. The State Council ordered a vigorous research and commercialization program to be undertaken to target key industrial sectors. These would come to include biotechnology, robotics, deep sea exploration, optical computing, and, eventually, automobiles.10 One of the key goals of the 863 Program was not just to develop new technologies, but to develop them domestically without borrowing from abroad.
The End of Cheap China: Economic and Cultural Trends That Will Disrupt the World by Shaun Rein
business climate, credit crunch, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, facts on the ground, glass ceiling, high net worth, illegal immigration, income per capita, indoor plumbing, job-hopping, Maui Hawaii, price stability, quantitative easing, Silicon Valley, Skype, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, thinkpad, trade route, trickle-down economics, upwardly mobile, urban planning, women in the workforce, young professional, zero-sum game
Marshal Ye was ranked number three in the Party hierarchy during the Cultural Revolution, behind only Mao himself and Wang Hongwen one of the members of the Gang of Four. Despite Marshal Ye’s power, or perhaps because of it, his children were jailed during the Cultural Revolution, some in solitary confinement. As soon as Mao died, Marshal Ye led the arrest of the Gang of Four. He acted as the president of the country in the 1980s when he was Chairman of the Standing Committee of the Politburo, China’s highest governing body. Deng Xiaoping was another leader at the time; he ranked behind Marshal Ye in the Party chain of command and had also suffered at the hands of tyranny. His son, Deng Pufang, was paralyzed after the Red Guards threw him out of a three-story window at Peking University during the Cultural Revolution. Red Guards denied him medical treatment, which doctors later said might have saved his ability to walk, because his father had been denounced as a capitalist.
This approach was smart for two reasons. First, wealth creation makes it a lot easier for people to stop dwelling on the suffering they faced in earlier years, and less likely to push for violent change. Second, countries that push for gender equality generally develop more quickly and foster more vibrant economies and cultures. During the Cultural Revolution, being labeled a capitalist was a heinous crime, as Deng Xiaoping and his paralyzed son knew all too well. Now that notion has been turned upside down. People who are not making money are too often looked down on because they lack ambition, potential, and social status. In many cases, the drive to make money has resulted in excesses, including many unscrupulous businessmen who lie, cheat, and cut corners as they try to get rich. Many Shanghainese girls told me they would not even consider marrying someone who has not already bought a house (without a mortgage) and car.
Eighty percent of my firm’s Chinese hires in the last three years went abroad to get master’s degrees before returning to start their careers in China. Parent after parent tells me the main reason they send their child abroad is their lack of faith in the Chinese educational system. Even China’s top leaders send their children abroad. The daughter of Xi Jinping, China’s presumptive next president after Hu Jintao, is an undergraduate at Harvard. The grandchildren of past leaders like Hu Yaobang, Chen Yun, Deng Xiaoping, and Bo Yibo all studied at Yale, Harvard, and Duke. Can you imagine Barack Obama sending his daughters abroad for their undergraduate studies? If the very top of Chinese society is looking abroad for education, it is clear something is lacking at home, no matter what the test scores, or alarm by pundits like Wadhwa, indicate. After the Cultural Revolution, when many scholars were harassed and universities’ doors were shut, China’s intellectual capital was so far behind in terms of innovation and entrepreneurship that the government actively promoted leading scholars’ studies abroad.
The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World by Ruchir Sharma
Asian financial crisis, backtesting, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, business climate, business cycle, business process, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, colonial rule, Commodity Super-Cycle, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, currency peg, dark matter, debt deflation, deglobalization, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Freestyle chess, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, inflation targeting, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, lateral thinking, liberal capitalism, Malacca Straits, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, mass immigration, megacity, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, mittelstand, moral hazard, New Economic Geography, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, pets.com, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price stability, Productivity paradox, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, secular stagnation, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Kuznets, smart cities, Snapchat, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, The Future of Employment, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, trade route, tulip mania, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, unorthodox policies, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, working-age population
The first big shock to postwar prosperity came in the 1970s, when much of the world felt leaderless in the face of stagflation—stagnant economic growth coupled with high inflation, triggered by a complex of forces including the excess spending of the welfare states and sharp oil price hikes engineered by the OPEC cartel and the petrostates. The widespread sense that their countries were coming apart prepared many nations to accept the idea of radical change and led to the rise of pioneering free market reformers: Margaret Thatcher in Britain, Ronald Reagan in the United States, and Deng Xiaoping in China. As is often the case in crisis periods, the promise of these leaders was often obscured by the gloom of the times; early on many observers dismissed Reagan as an ex-actor, Thatcher as a grocer’s daughter, and Deng as a faceless member of China’s collective leadership. China circa 1978 was too shell shocked by the recent mob violence of the Cultural Revolution to harbor high expectations for any leader.
Within months, however, she began moving to grant amnesty to her brother, triggering a new revolt and a coup that toppled her in May 2014. The renewed turmoil took a toll on Thailand’s economy, and the country’s growth rate slumped from 5 percent in early 2013 to 2 percent in 2015. A particularly auspicious mix of personality traits in a leader is a combination of public charisma and private earnestness. Deng Xiaoping was a visionary reformer and magnetic public personality, yet in private he could also surprise visitors like Henry Kissinger with his capacity for going on about the affairs of the department of metallurgy. India’s new prime minister Narendra Modi is a bit like that—shockingly nuts and bolts in the flesh. So is the president of the Philippines, Noynoy Aquino, whose earthy charm helps ordinary Filipino voters overlook the fact that he hails from the landed aristocracy.
China is the very different case of a successful technocracy that may be growing too confident in the ability of its technocrats to control economic growth. For years, China reported much less volatile economic growth than other developing nations, creating suspicion that it was manipulating the numbers to make the economy look like a smoothly running machine, and to foster social harmony. For a long time, I thought that suspicion was overblown. When Deng Xiaoping took power in 1979, one of the first things he told his underlings was that he wanted honest data—not the inflated numbers they had been feeding Mao to stroke his ego. Even in 1990, after the fallout from the events in Tiananmen Square, the Deng regime reported growth of less than 4 percent, way below the official target of 8 percent. And as recently as 2003, Deng’s handpicked and equally pragmatic successors were openly criticizing provincial leaders for overstating local growth numbers in an attempt to advance their careers.
The Great Firewall of China by James Griffiths;
A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, bitcoin, borderless world, call centre, Chelsea Manning, Deng Xiaoping, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, gig economy, jimmy wales, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mitch Kapor, mobile money, Occupy movement, pets.com, profit motive, QR code, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Snapchat, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Stuxnet, technoutopianism, undersea cable, WikiLeaks, zero day
On 19 May, Zhao Ziyang, the popular reformist general secretary of the Party who advocated dialogue with the students, visited the square and apologised for having “come too late”. Zhao was soon sidelined by the hardliners and placed under house arrest. The next day, Premier Li Peng declared martial law in Beijing. On the square in late May, as numbers were dropping in the face of seemingly inevitable violence, student leaders discussed how to proceed even as the Party seemed to dither on taking action. Only years later did it emerge that paramount leader Deng Xiaoping and others who supported a crackdown faced defiance from within the Party leadership and the military, staying their hand for a time. Finally, on 3 June, more than 10,000 armed troops moved towards Beijing. “Their large numbers, the fact that they are helmeted, and the automatic weapons they are carrying suggest that the force option is real,” a US State Department cable warned. Hundreds were killed and thousands arrested as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) cleared protesters from the streets of the Chinese capital with tanks and sniper rifles.
Those who could afford it drove gleaming Japanese cars (or at least cheaper domestic knock-offs), and tourists thronged the city’s ancient sites, as new developments of gleaming glass and chrome sprang up among the dreary Stalinist architecture that dominated the centre of the city.3 In the Great Hall of the People, the blocky white palace to Party bureaucracy overlooking Tiananmen Square, Mao’s successor Deng Xiaoping welcomed 150 leading academics from fifty countries to the second conference of the Third World Academy of Sciences.4 A tiny man – at under five feet he was regularly dwarfed by other world leaders – Deng had a round, lined face with deep-set eyes and a mischievous smile that gave him an elfin quality. Addressing the audience in his heavily Sichuan-accented Mandarin, Deng was keen to draw a line under the anti-intellectualism of the Cultural Revolution, lauding China’s achievements in science and technology, and calling for more cooperation with Western institutions.
An assistant professor at Beijing Medical University, he had been taking photographs on 3 June with a camera borrowed from a colleague. The mood among the protesters was tense and noisy. Many leaders of the movement and older intellectuals had already urged the students to vacate the square, to consolidate their victories and prepare for the next stage of the struggle, before the government moved to wipe them out completely. There were signs that such a decision was coming: Deng Xiaoping had declared martial law two weeks earlier, and throughout 3 June state television broadcast warnings to stay off the streets, saying that troops would use “any and all means” to enforce order.5 Thousands of People’s Liberation Army troops were already at the outskirts of the city, and scuffles were breaking out between them and local residents. Concerned more for the safety of his colleague’s camera than his own person, Li reluctantly decided to leave the square and go home at around 9pm.
The Age of Stagnation: Why Perpetual Growth Is Unattainable and the Global Economy Is in Peril by Satyajit Das
"Robert Solow", 9 dash line, accounting loophole / creative accounting, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Anton Chekhov, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business cycle, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collaborative economy, colonial exploitation, computer age, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, declining real wages, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, Downton Abbey, Emanuel Derman, energy security, energy transition, eurozone crisis, financial innovation, financial repression, forward guidance, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global supply chain, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, happiness index / gross national happiness, Honoré de Balzac, hydraulic fracturing, Hyman Minsky, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, indoor plumbing, informal economy, Innovator's Dilemma, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, light touch regulation, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mahatma Gandhi, margin call, market design, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, Mikhail Gorbachev, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old age dependency ratio, open economy, passive income, peak oil, peer-to-peer lending, pension reform, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Potemkin village, precariat, price stability, profit maximization, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, Rana Plaza, rent control, rent-seeking, reserve currency, ride hailing / ride sharing, rising living standards, risk/return, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Satyajit Das, savings glut, secular stagnation, seigniorage, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Slavoj Žižek, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, TaskRabbit, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the market place, the payments system, The Spirit Level, Thorstein Veblen, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade route, transaction costs, uber lyft, unpaid internship, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, Washington Consensus, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, Y2K, Yom Kippur War, zero-coupon bond, zero-sum game
This paved the way for the reintegration of these economies into Western Europe and the global trading system, although former German chancellor Willy Brandt feared that the mental barriers would outlast the concrete wall.3 In a parallel development, China cautiously embraced market-based reforms. The objective was to improve the living standards of ordinary Chinese, some of whom remained desperately poor as the result of Mao Zedong's failed Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution of the late fifties and sixties. Deng Xiaoping, China's “Paramount Leader,” embraced a change in philosophy: “Poverty is not socialism. To be rich is glorious.” India too embarked on economic reforms in the nineties. Countries affected by the 1980s debt crisis gradually recovered, assisted by debt forgiveness and the recovery of the global economy. A reintegrated China, India, Russia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America now helped drive growth.
India passed a reformist budget, devalued the rupee, and opened the door to limited foreign investment. These actions paved the way for the economy to quadruple in size, growing at an average rate of about 7 percent per annum and over 9 percent from 2005 to 2007. Mr. Singh quoted French author Victor Hugo: “No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.”7 The emergence of India as a major economic power seemed within reach. Under Deng Xiaoping, leader of the Communist Party from 1978, China implemented Gaige Kaifang (Reforms and Openness), a program of domestic social, political, and economic policy changes combining socialism and elements of the market economy. It reversed the traditional policy of self-reliance and a lack of interest in trade. Over the next three decades, China emerged as a major global economy, with average annual growth rates of more than 9 percent.
Emerging markets followed writer Bertolt Brecht's observation in The Threepenny Opera that eating takes precedence over morality. Emerging market growth led to improved living standards, at least for some. As momentum increased, foreign businesses invested to take advantage of the growth and rising spending power of a nascent middle class. Opportunities encouraged nationals living, studying, and working in advanced economies to return to their native lands, as Deng Xiaoping had predicted: “When our thousands of Chinese students abroad return home, you will see how China will transform itself.” Expansion brought hubris. An editorial in an official Chinese publication boasted: “High-level figures from the Western political and economic spheres…envy China's superb performance…as well as ‘China's spirit’—the kind of solid, unbreakable ‘Great Wall’ at heart…”9 Much ink was spilled over culture, values, and the merits of different political systems.
Grave New World: The End of Globalization, the Return of History by Stephen D. King
9 dash line, Admiral Zheng, air freight, Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, bilateral investment treaty, bitcoin, blockchain, Bonfire of the Vanities, borderless world, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, central bank independence, collateralized debt obligation, colonial rule, corporate governance, credit crunch, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, debt deflation, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, eurozone crisis, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, floating exchange rates, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, George Akerlof, global supply chain, global value chain, hydraulic fracturing, Hyman Minsky, imperial preference, income inequality, income per capita, incomplete markets, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, Internet of things, invisible hand, joint-stock company, Kickstarter, Long Term Capital Management, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, moral hazard, Nixon shock, offshore financial centre, oil shock, old age dependency ratio, paradox of thrift, Peace of Westphalia, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price stability, profit maximization, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, rent-seeking, reserve currency, reshoring, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, Second Machine Age, Skype, South China Sea, special drawing rights, technology bubble, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the market place, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, trade liberalization, trade route, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game
Thereafter, its presence became increasingly global: by 1959, there were 1,700 bottling operations supplying more than 100 countries. Its increasing presence behind the Iron Curtain – Hungary and Yugoslavia in 1968, Poland in 1972 and the first Soviet bottling plant in 1985 – only served to emphasize the remarkable dominance of the world’s most famous secret recipe. The Chinese got their first taste of the ‘Real Thing’ in 1978, while Deng Xiaoping was still in the middle of consolidating his power base. By 2015, Coke was selling 1.7 billion ‘products’ to its thirsty customers each and every day. Roughly half those sales were outside North America.12 Disney, meanwhile, increasingly invested abroad, most visibly in Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland and Disney Resorts in both Tokyo and Shanghai. Alongside its 200 US stores, there are now also 40 in Japan and 80 scattered through countries in Western Europe.
Thereafter, France adopted the so-called franc fort policy, a largely successful attempt to emulate the German Bundesbank’s pre-existing commitment to monetary rigour. Indeed, without the French commitment to a strong and stable franc, it is doubtful that the euro would ever have become a reality. A decade or two later, it was easy to believe that ‘free-market capitalism’ – if not liberal democracy – had triumphed. The evidence seemed to be everywhere: Deng Xiaoping’s reforms had paved the way for Western and Japanese capital to pour into China; the Berlin Wall had come down; Latin American economies had embarked on ‘free-market’ and ‘sound-money’ reforms which were bringing hitherto excessive inflation to heel; Western Europe was completing the ‘single market’, built on the so-called ‘four freedoms’ (free movement of goods, services, capital and labour – principles first established, if not acted upon, in the 1957 Treaty of Rome); and the ‘commanding heights’ of industry were, in the majority of countries, rapidly being privatized.
Inevitably, their relative military capabilities followed suit. THE LATE TWENTIETH-CENTURY REVOLUTION Late twentieth-century globalization changed all that. Political upheavals helped. The collapse of the Soviet Empire and its satellites allowed a large number of Eastern European countries to join the European Union: their citizens headed west, while capital from Western European countries headed east. Deng Xiaoping’s decision to open China for business was, in economic terms, even more momentous. Economic reforms also did their bit: as we saw in Chapter 4, the gradual abolition of capital controls in the 1980s and beyond meant that capital previously ‘trapped’ within national boundaries was suddenly free to go in search of the best combination of low wages, long hours and high productivity. The emerging-market revolution owes a great deal to this new-found cross-border movement of capital.
Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World by Ian Bremmer
airport security, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, Bretton Woods, BRICs, capital controls, clean water, creative destruction, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, global rebalancing, global supply chain, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Julian Assange, Kickstarter, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, Nixon shock, nuclear winter, Parag Khanna, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Stuxnet, trade route, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, Yom Kippur War
ENTER THE DRAGON China’s rise began in 1976 with the death of Mao Zedong. A year later, China still accounted for just 0.6 percent of world trade.36 In 2010, it surpassed Japan to become the world’s second largest economy, and Western bankers and economists are now taking bets on just how soon China will claim the title of the world’s largest trading nation.37 Beginning in the late 1970s, Mao’s successor as paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, began the reform process by establishing four “special economic zones,” coastal enclaves that served as capitalist laboratories where foreign companies were invited to invest on favorable terms. Spurred by early success, Deng gradually expanded the experiment. In 1984, fourteen coastal cities were opened to a surge of foreign investment. In the countryside, agricultural production soared as new rules gave farmers new freedoms and new incentives to produce.
America’s willingness to play the global policeman has given China time to open and maintain trade routes and sea lanes, and develop trade and investment relations abroad. The willingness of successive U.S. presidents to pull punches on Beijing’s human rights record in favor of better trade relations created the makings of, if not a beautiful friendship, at least a profitable partnership. Despite the delay imposed by events in Tiananmen Square, the death of European and Soviet communism helped the aging Deng Xiaoping persuade China’s elite that only a rising standard of living would save the country’s one-party system and that a more ambitious experimentation with market-driven capitalism was the only way to get there. To create jobs, Beijing worked to open consumer markets around the world, especially in America and Europe, to Chinese exports. The drive to build a modern economy also required a warm welcome for foreign companies that could provide Chinese companies with access to state-of-the-art technology, management and marketing expertise, best commercial practices, and unprecedented levels of foreign direct investment.
China’s urban employment grew from 190.4 million workers in 1995 to an estimated 256.4 million in 2003. Eswar Prasad, ed., China’s Growth and Integration into the World Economy: Prospects and Challenges, Occasional Paper 232 (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2004), http://prasad.dyson.cornell.edu/doc/books/ChinasGrowthAndIntegrationWithTheWorldEconomy-ProspectsAndChallenges_IMFOP232_2004.pdf. 43. When Deng Xiaoping died in 1997, China’s foreign-exchange reserves stood just below $140 billion. By 2004, they were estimated above $650 billion. Eswar Prasad and Shang-Jin Wei, “The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations,” in Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, Consequences, ed. Sebastian Edwards (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007), http://prasad.dyson.cornell.edu/doc/PrasadWeiChinaKFLowsNBERFinal.pdf. 44.
War and Gold: A Five-Hundred-Year History of Empires, Adventures, and Debt by Kwasi Kwarteng
accounting loophole / creative accounting, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, Atahualpa, balance sheet recession, bank run, banking crisis, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, California gold rush, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, credit crunch, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of the americas, Etonian, eurozone crisis, fiat currency, financial innovation, fixed income, floating exchange rates, Francisco Pizarro, full employment, German hyperinflation, hiring and firing, income inequality, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, labour market flexibility, liberal capitalism, market bubble, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, new economy, oil shock, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price mechanism, quantitative easing, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, South Sea Bubble, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, War on Poverty, Yom Kippur War
., p. 21. 51Otmar Issing, speech delivered at the Danish Society of Financial Analysts’ 25th Jubilee, Copenhagen, 7 May 1999. 52Francesco Giordano and Sharda Persaud, The Political Economy of Monetary Union: Towards the Euro, London, 1998, p. 37. 53Ibid., p. 53. 54Issing, The Birth of the Euro, p. 193. 55Der Spiegel, ‘Aufbruch ins Ungewisse’, 29 December 2001. 56Matthew Lynn, Bust: Greece, the Euro and the Sovereign Debt Crisis, London, 2011, p. 34. Chapter 18: The Rise of China 1New York Times, ‘Deng Xiaoping: A Political Wizard Who Put China on the Capitalist Road’, 20 February 1997. 2Ezra F. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Cambridge, MA, 2011, p. 49. 3Ibid., pp. 217–18. 4Ibid., pp. 218, 220. 5Eli Heckscher, Mercantilism, 2 vols, 1st English edn, London, 1935, vol. 2, p. 46. 6Paul Krugman, from ‘The Conscience of a Liberal’, a blog appearing in the New York Times, 31 December 2009. 7Patrick Buchanan, ‘Yankee Utopians in a Chinese Century’, 2 July 2010, found on http://buchanan.org/blog/yankee-utopians-in-a-chinese-century-4227. 8Ibid. 9Lawrence J.
This proved to be a fateful event which made the lives of investors, politicians and, most importantly, the Greek people less comfortably secure than might otherwise have been the case. 18 The Rise of China At the end of the twentieth century, the most significant global development, strictly in terms of international currency, was undoubtedly the creation and successful launch of the euro. More widely, the greatest economic phenomenon of the time was almost certainly the growth of China. After adopting a peculiar brand of Marxism with the victory of the Chinese Communist Party in 1949, China abandoned doctrinaire Communism as an economic philosophy in 1978. It was in this year that Deng Xiaoping finally seized the reins of power in China and began a process which continued to propel that country in the early twenty-first century. Deng was born in 1904 and was already seventy-four when he became China’s ‘paramount leader’ in 1978. At such an age, many people thought he would be ‘too old to be anything but a transitional figure’.1 Deng’s journey had been tortuous. Mao had first placed him in the upper reaches of the party in the early 1950s.
Mitchell, Wesley, ‘Review of Lionel Robbins, The Great Depression’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 49, no. 3 (May 1935), pp. 503–7. Morrison, Wayne M. and Labonte, Marc, China’s Currency Policy: An Analysis of the Economic Issues, CRS Report for Congress, Washington, DC, 19 December 2011. New York Times, advertisement, 11 February 2003. New York Times, ‘China Won’t Reduce Value of Currency, Official Says’, 1 December 1997. New York Times, ‘Deng Xiaoping: A Political Wizard Who Put China on the Capitalist Road’, 20 February 1997. New York Times, ‘Devaluation by China’, 16 December 1989. New York Times, ‘The Doctrine was Not to Have One’, 25 August 2005. New York Times, ‘Greece’s Stumble Follows a Headlong Rush into the Euro’, 5 May 2010. New York Times, ‘Greek Leader Offers Plan to Tackle Debt Crisis’, 15 December 2009. New York Times, ‘Greek Opposition Leader Seeks Conference on Debt’, 25 January 2013.
Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy by Francis Fukuyama
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, Atahualpa, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, British Empire, centre right, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, colonial rule, conceptual framework, crony capitalism, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Snowden, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Francisco Pizarro, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, Gini coefficient, Hernando de Soto, Home mortgage interest deduction, income inequality, information asymmetry, invention of the printing press, iterative process, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, labour management system, land reform, land tenure, life extension, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, means of production, Menlo Park, Mohammed Bouazizi, Monroe Doctrine, moral hazard, Nelson Mandela, new economy, open economy, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, Port of Oakland, post-industrial society, post-materialism, price discrimination, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Scientific racism, Scramble for Africa, Second Machine Age, Silicon Valley, special economic zone, stem cell, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, trade route, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Vilfredo Pareto, women in the workforce, World Values Survey, zero-sum game
Then, as now, the central problem of Chinese politics has not been how to concentrate and deploy state power but rather how to constrain it through law and democratic accountability. The task of balancing state, law, and accountability that was completed in Japan by the late 1940s has been only partially accomplished in China. Under Mao Zedong, law virtually disappeared and the country became an arbitrary despotism. Since the reforms that began under Deng Xiaoping in 1978, China has been moving slowly toward a political system that is more rule based. But the rule of law is still far from secured, and the regime’s sustainability will depend heavily on whether this becomes the main line of political development in the twenty-first century. THE NATURE OF CHINESE LAW China represents the one world civilization that never developed a true rule of law. In ancient Israel, the Christian West, the Muslim world, and India, law originated in a transcendental religion and was interpreted and implemented by a hierarchy of religious scholars and jurists.
Mao’s revolution ended any semblance of rule-based administration, undermined the operations of government, and terrorized the party itself, much like Stalin’s purges of the Soviet Communist Party during the 1930s.21 REBUILDING RULE BY LAW AFTER 1978 It is impossible to understand the China that emerged after the death of Mao and the reforms that began in 1978 except in relation to the trauma experienced by those who lived through the Cultural Revolution. The Communist elite that survived this period, led by one of the greatest statesmen of the twentieth century, Deng Xiaoping, was determined that Mao’s form of personal dictatorship must never be allowed to occur again. The political reform process that unfolded subsequently centered around the slow construction of a series of rules that would limit the ability of any future charismatic leader to emerge and wreak havoc on the whole of Chinese society in the manner of Mao. In addition, law was seen as a mechanism by which the party could channel and monitor popular grievances against the government.
The newer versions also returned some powers from the party to the state, reflecting the latter’s larger role in economic management. These constitutional provisions, however, were more declarations of new policy initiatives decided on by the party than serious legal instruments that would govern the party’s own behavior. The contemporary Chinese constitution is built around two potentially contradictory principles. On the one hand, Deng Xiaoping asserted in 1978 that “democracy has to be institutionalized and written into law, so as to make sure that institutions and laws do not change whenever the leadership changes, or whenever the leaders change their views.”22 The Chinese constitution provides for an elected National People’s Congress (NPC), which is held to be the “supreme organ of state power,” along with people’s congresses at lower levels of government.
China: A History by John Keay
Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Berlin Wall, Deng Xiaoping, imperial preference, invention of movable type, land tenure, mass immigration, means of production, Pax Mongolica, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, special economic zone, spice trade, trade route, transcontinental railway, upwardly mobile, éminence grise
Liu Shaoqi, a fine-looking and capable bureaucrat whom Mao had installed as head of state and his prefered successor (dynastic preference trumped egalitarian principle in such matters), conducted a Socialist Education Campaign that found corruption and impropriety to be endemic in the Party, the provincial administrations and the state industries. The resultant arrests ran into the hundreds of thousands. The campaign was supported by Premier Zhou Enlai, Mao’s bushy-browed and utterly dependable associate, and by Party secretary Deng Xiaoping, a small and dynamic pragmatist whose devotion to the Party may have exceeded that to its Chairman. Between them, Zhou and Deng presided over a stabilisation of the economy. The criterion for advancement was now to be technical and professional ability as much as political orthodoxy. A quip, later appropriated by Deng Xiaoping, about it being immaterial whether a cat is black or white ‘so long as it catches the mouse,’ first surfaced in 1961.2 ‘Learning from the facts’, another Deng-ism, inevitably meant skimping on the theory. The rural communes were down-sized and their regimented ethic diluted.
With the Gang now in control, Deng Xiaoping was again denounced, deprived of all his offices and placed under surveillance. Five months later, in September 1976, the Great Helmsman himself passed away. This time mourners in their millions bade farewell. Their tears were genuine and there were no incidents. For all his faults, a China without ‘the great red sun in our hearts’ was unimaginable. Similarly, without its ‘gang of one’, the Gang of Four was rudderless. A doomed bid for power ended within the month when Jiang Qing and her associates were arrested. Ostensibly the work of Hua Guofeng, Mao’s nominated successor (the fourth by most counts), this rejection of all that remained of the Cultural Revolution depended on PLA support as orchestrated by Deng Xiaoping. For the third time, the diminutive Deng was bouncing back.
In 1976 it acquired a positively insidious dimension when on 3–5 April a display of Qingming floral wreaths and poster poems brought crowds of mourners to Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. They were protesting against official indifference to the recent death of Premier Zhou Enlai, which they saw as disparagement of a revered and long-serving revolutionary by the hard left leadership of the Cultural Revolution. Cars were overturned and a police post torched. But the main casualty was Vice-Premier Deng Xiaoping; accused of orchestrating the affair, he was dismissed from all his Party offices. Sometimes known as the Tiananmen incident, this 1976 protest is now more commonly called the Qingming incident, so avoiding confusion with the more prolonged Tiananmen confrontation of 1989. Deng of course soon rose again; and thirty years later, on 5 April 2006, Qingming itself was back in favour. Next day the papers were full of it.
Factory Girls: From Village to City in a Changing China by Leslie T. Chang
anti-communist, Deng Xiaoping, estate planning, financial independence, index card, invention of writing, job-hopping, land reform, Mason jar, mass immigration, new economy, Pearl River Delta, risk tolerance, special economic zone
One day my father was surprised to hear his government handlers say that Deng Xiaoping, the Party official most committed to modernization and reform, would soon be deposed. His handlers were so worried about their own futures that they let this slip in front of my father. The following April, Deng was purged from the Party leadership for the third and last time. In our house in suburban New York, we listened over and over to the records my father had brought back from China. The sun in the east is rising, The People’s Republic is growing; Our supreme leader Mao Zedong Points our direction forward. Our lives are improving day by day, Our future shining in glorious splendor. My father returned to China for the second time in 1979. The United States and China had established diplomatic relations; Deng Xiaoping was firmly in charge, rehabilitating the millions of victims of the Cultural Revolution and launching economic reforms that would soon change the face of the country.
In 1878, the governor of Hong Kong suggested founding the Inferior Protection Bureau to protect Chinese women and children. The exhibit marched quickly through the Second World War and straight to Communist victory, a blurry photo of happy faces. Millions of people rejoiced at the liberation. In the next room, a title stretched across one wall: “A Vision Made Real: From Agricultural County to IT City.” A light board showed photos of the Communist Party meeting at which Deng Xiaoping set forth his program for economic reform and opening to the West. That was in 1978. From one room to the next, the exhibit had jumped thirty years, skipping over the founding of Communist China, the land reform and the execution of counterrevolutionaries, the attacks against “class enemies” and the establishment of the communes, the Great Leap Forward and the famine that killed at least twenty million people, and the decade of the Cultural Revolution.
The Cultural Revolution took everything the Chinese people had long held sacred and smashed it to pieces, like an antique vase hurled against the wall. It finished off the world of moral certainty and Confucian values into which my grandfather, and countless generations before him, had been born. And what took its place? For a while, radical fervor was enough. But when the Cultural Revolution finally ended and pragmatic leaders like Deng Xiaoping took over, the Chinese would find themselves living in a vacuum—stripped of all belief and blank as newborns, looking upon a ruined world they must somehow make anew. In 1968, Red Guards came to my grandfather’s tomb in Shenyang. They dug up the coffin and scattered his remains; they smashed the tomb and the grave marker. They beat the base of the stele until it cracked, but they left the stele itself intact.
The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of the World by Peter Frankopan
active measures, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, cashless society, clean water, cryptocurrency, Deng Xiaoping, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, global supply chain, illegal immigration, income inequality, invisible hand, land reform, Mark Zuckerberg, mass incarceration, Nelson Mandela, purchasing power parity, ransomware, Rubik’s Cube, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, trade route, trickle-down economics, UNCLOS, urban planning, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game
Mandela insisted, however, that forgiveness was a vital part of reconciliation.3 Things looked promising in the Korean peninsula, where, in an echo of the discussions that took place in 2018, an outline agreement was reached between the US and North Korea to great fanfare about the peaceful reunification of Korea and about a pathway for denuclearisation that was welcomed as a significant step forward for non-proliferation and also for a safer region and for a safer world.4 In 1993, an important agreement was also reached between China and India that established the framework for dealing with disputed border issues that had been a source of rivalry and bitterness for three decades – while both sides also agreed to reduce troop levels along the frontier and work together towards a conclusion that was mutually acceptable.5 This was important for both countries at a time when economic expansion and liberalisation was at the forefront for their respective political leaders. In China, Deng Xiaoping had recently undertaken a tour of the southern provinces to press for faster reforms, and to deal with hardliners who opposed the liberalisation of markets that had seen the stock exchange open in communist China in Shanghai in 1990.6 South Korea’s transformation was already well underway. In the 1960s, the country had been one of the poorest in the world, with no natural resources and an unpromising location at the eastern extremity of Asia.
‘Western civilisation is built on a philosophical-theological tradition of binary antagonisms,’ wrote Jiang Shigong, a prominent Chinese intellectual, in an essay that has been described as the ‘authoritative statement of the new political orthodoxy under Xi Jinping’.205 For centuries, notes Jiang, ‘Chinese culture was the envy of the west’. Since the time of the Opium Wars, however, ‘China has experienced humiliation and misery’. The Chinese people, he states, ‘who have long suffered in the modern age, have now made a great leap’. Dividing history into the eras of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping, Jiang states that these correspond respectively to China ‘standing up’, ‘becoming rich’ and ‘becoming strong’. What is happening in China under Xi Jinping, both domestically and internationally, is the natural and logical culmination, in other words, of deep trends and a long process that Jiang ultimately traces back to 1921 and the foundation of the Communist Party. ‘The great revival of the Chinese nation,’ he concludes, ‘is not only an economic and political revival.
In fact, the rumour mills are busy whirring in Beijing, trying to keep up with events, seeking to make sense of what China is having to contend with in a changing global situation and how to best respond to it. Part of this is shaped by working out how to apply ‘Xi Jinping Thought’, a fourteen-point manifesto that was added formally to the country’s constitution – alongside ‘Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought and Deng Xiaoping Theory’ – in March 2018 at the National People’s Congress. One of the key elements to this is creating an international community with a shared future, based on collaboration and cooperation. That is not easy when others either do not want to share a future or want to advance a different vision altogether.174 Perhaps it is no surprise that the top ‘hot research topic’ of 2017 in China was reported to be research on Xi Jinpging thought.175 It is not just other parts of the world that are at a crossroads and are looking to see what may, or may not, lie ahead
Tech Titans of China: How China's Tech Sector Is Challenging the World by Innovating Faster, Working Harder, and Going Global by Rebecca Fannin
Airbnb, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, blockchain, call centre, cashless society, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, cloud computing, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, cryptocurrency, data is the new oil, Deng Xiaoping, digital map, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, El Camino Real, Elon Musk, family office, fear of failure, glass ceiling, global supply chain, income inequality, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of movable type, Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Menlo Park, money market fund, Network effects, new economy, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, QR code, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, sharing economy, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, smart transportation, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, Tim Cook: Apple, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, urban planning, winner-take-all economy, Y Combinator, young professional
Military conflicts over pending trouble spots in the South China Sea and China’s claim to Taiwan. Poorly implemented state-backed reforms on a local level. Growing criticism over China-styled colonialism, such as using loans to gain control over strategic locations, notably the Sri Lanka port and surrounding land. It’s conceivable that China could roll back the capitalistic reforms ushered in by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s to return to Chairman Mao’s drab communism of several decades ago. National security and technological leadership frictions will no doubt heighten as China marches forward. Technologies we use every day—Siri, touchscreen, GPS, the internet, and the iPhone—came out of the US Department of Defense and government-funded scientists for military purposes. “Anyone who is trying to understand China today without understanding what’s happening from the innovation perspective or what’s happening to China’s entrepreneurs, is not thoughtful,” says tech investor Gary Rieschel, a thought leader in the world of venture and entrepreneurship.
Enormous progress has been made since 2000, when digital China first arrived, thanks to the foresight and leadership of the BAT CEOs: Robin Li of Baidu, Jack Ma of Alibaba, and Tencent’s Ma Huateng, known as Pony Ma (derived from his family name, which means horse in Chinese). It’s hard to imagine they would have come so far, so quickly—and stayed in power for so long. They are regarded as superheroes in the first generation of entrepreneurs since China’s Cultural Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s nearly destroyed the economy, and the later reforms of former leader Deng Xiaoping opened China to a socialist market economy and made it glorious to get rich. All three founders cranked up their startups soon after the US dotcom bubble burst about two decades ago. They did become very rich—among the richest in the world—initially by copying. Baidu’s quiet-spoken search expert Li, who came to the United States for a computer science graduate degree and jobs at Dow Jones and Disney-owned search company Infoseek before returning home, has a $10 billion fortune made in China.
“We got in early when the space was not so competitive and we’ve partnered with the best entrepreneurs in China,” said Sequoia partner Sun.1 “As with any good investment company, you have to be performance driven and a meritocracy, and I think making money is the only thing that really matters.” Certainly Sequoia, named after the giant trees in the Sierra Nevada range, is a money machine and embraces the slogan made famous by Chairman Mao’s successor Deng Xiaoping: “To get rich is glorious.” “As with any good investment company, you have to be performance driven and a meritocracy, and I think making money is the only thing that really matters.” Glen Sun Partner, Sequoia Capital China The alpha at Sequoia Capital China is founding partner partner Neil Shen, a graduate of the Yale School of Management, former investment banker, and a cofounder of Expedia-like Ctrip and budget hotel chain Home Inn.
The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor by William Easterly
"Robert Solow", air freight, Andrei Shleifer, battle of ideas, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, Carmen Reinhart, clean water, colonial rule, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, discovery of the americas, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, Francisco Pizarro, fundamental attribution error, germ theory of disease, greed is good, Gunnar Myrdal, income per capita, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, John Snow's cholera map, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, M-Pesa, microcredit, Monroe Doctrine, oil shock, place-making, Ponzi scheme, risk/return, road to serfdom, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, urban planning, urban renewal, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey, young professional
It turns out that when the rights of local people are respected, new trades happen, new technologies happen, new public services happen. This challenges conventional wisdom about the “benevolent autocrats” behind many success stories. There is, for example, more evidence for attributing the rise of China as an economic superpower to the anonymous spread of the potato to China than to Chinese ruler Deng Xiaoping’s economic policies. Appreciation of this phenomenon allows us, finally, to have the biggest development debate of all, on conscious design of development by experts versus spontaneous solutions by individuals. Ironically, most of the economists involved in this recent research were not trying to solve the global poverty problem; they were just trying to better understand and explain the world.
It was partly due to the potato that China’s masses became what the comic strip Doonesbury once called “friendly but teeming.” According to a recent quantification of the potato’s impact, it could account for as much as a fourth of the substantial population growth in China and the rest of the Old World between 1700 and 1900.32 It is off balance that all the talk today about the huge size of China’s economy concentrates only on recent leaders like Deng Xiaoping; a lot more credit should go to Mr. Potato Head. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND CREATIVE DESTRUCTION: THE GREENE STREET BLOCK The textile boom story on the Greene Street block already featured an important role for technological improvements in transportation. New Yorkers got access to the new technologies by importing products embodying them from Great Britain—such as the railroad and the steamboats—with further refinements by New York innovators.
The closing sentence of the report says that outcomes depend “on the wisdom, strength, and determination of the Chinese leadership.”3 The World Bank still seems to prefer the same authoritarian development approach to 2013 China that Western actors held for 1930s China (Chapter Three). AUTOCRATIC MIRACLES There is a strong tradition of folklore about benevolent autocrats who deliver development to their people. And indeed the list of autocrats who seem to have worked miracles goes on and on: Deng Xiaoping in China, Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore, Park Chung Hee in South Korea, Chiang Kai-shek in Taiwan, Augusto Pinochet in Chile, Suharto in Indonesia, and Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia. The evidence that autocrats cause rapid growth seems overwhelming. We now must confront the evidence that there really are benevolent autocrats. Such evidence would favor conscious direction over spontaneous solutions.
Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty by Bradley K. Martin
anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, four colour theorem, illegal immigration, informal economy, kremlinology, land reform, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, Potemkin village, profit motive, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, special economic zone, stakhanovite, UNCLOS, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, zero-sum game
Reportedly it had died a natural death. As for publicly displayed art and sculpture, most of what I saw depicted Kim Il-sung. A Japanese newsman, in Pyongyang to cover the table tennis tournament, was sent home early after he filed an article reporting that the gold coating on a sixty-five-foot (twenty-meter) bronze statue of the Great Leader had been removed. His article cited a rumor among foreign residents in Pyongyang that Deng Xiaoping, during a visit not long before, had suggested to President Kim that a golden statue might be a bit too extravagant a display for a socialist country seeking Chinese economic aid. Son-hui arrives at the village where, following her wartime rescue from a burning house, she spent her childhood. She is deeply moved to see the village now becoming a model cooperative farm. It is harvest time, and “the rice stacks rise mountain-high,” the farmers sing.
I visited the school in 1982 and found a large statue of Kim in the courtyard. A slogan on the school building proclaimed: “Long Live Sino-Korean Friendship.” Strangely the marble tablets on Kim’s statue were blank. I wonder whether the Chinese had erased them— perhaps during the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s and ’70s, when the Red Guards criticized Kim harshly, or during the subsequent movement led by Deng Xiaoping and other reformers to stamp out signs of the discredited personality cult built around China’s own Mao Zedong. Or could it have been the North Koreans who chose to leave the tablets blank—because it was not then considered politic, from the standpoint of Korean nationalism, to advertise that Kim had been educated in a foreign language? When he chose a Chinese school after leaving the Korean Huadian School, he did have a choice, as there were Korean schools in Jilin.56 Simply to continue his studies was an economic struggle for Kim.
Partly because it was such a big country, though, Big Brother could not indoctrinate and monitor the people there as thoroughly and efficiently as in North Korea. Indeed, life in China had already started to change. Mao Zedong was dead and, with him, his catastrophic Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. Although I did not yet know it, the vitality I saw was to power the amazing changes that were about to come to China under Deng Xiaoping’s reform-minded rule. At the time, though, if I could credit what my eyes revealed in terms of economic development, the comparison between North Korea and China seemed much more startling than any that could be made between North and South Korea.47 That seemed a likely partial explanation, at least, of why the Pyongyang regime contemplated only minor deviations from past practice. Perhaps the North’s leaders themselves were lulled by the evidence of their successes, taking reports of the South’s advances less seriously than they might have if their own system had less to show for it.
The end of history and the last man by Francis Fukuyama
affirmative action, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, business cycle, centre right, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, European colonialism, Exxon Valdez, F. W. de Klerk, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, Gini coefficient, Gunnar Myrdal, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, Isaac Newton, Joan Didion, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, kremlinology, land reform, liberal world order, liberation theology, life extension, linear programming, long peace, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, New Journalism, nuclear winter, old-boy network, open economy, post-industrial society, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Socratic dialogue, strikebreaker, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, zero-sum game
Perhaps the best label to describe the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe of the Brezhnev era is that used by Václav Havel, who called these regimes “post-totalitarian,” indicating that while they were no longer bloody police states of the 1930s and 40s, they still lived under the shadow of earlier totalitarian practice.16 Totalitarianism was not sufficient to kill the democratic idea in these societies, but its legacy constrained their ability to democratize subsequently. Totalitarianism failed as well in the People’s Republic of China and the countries of Eastern Europe. Central government control over the Chinese economy even at the height of the PRC’s “Stalinist” period had never been as complete as in the Soviet Union, with perhaps a quarter of the economy never having come under the purview of the national plan. When Deng Xiaoping set the country on the course of economic reform in 1978, many Chinese still had a vivid memory of markets and entrepreneurship from the 1950s, so it is perhaps not surprising that they were able to take advantage of economic liberalization in the following decade. While continuing to pay lip service to Mao and Marxism-Leninism, Deng effectively restored private property in the countryside and opened up the country to the global capitalist economy.
The total failure of centrally planned economies in countries like the Soviet Union and China to move beyond a 1950s level of industrialization undercut their ability to play important roles on the international stage, or even to safeguard their own national security. Mao’s persecution of competent technocrats during the Cultural Revolution proved to be an economic disaster of the first order that set China back a generation. One of Deng Xiaoping’s first acts when coming to power in the mid-1970s was therefore to restore prestige and dignity to the technical intelligentsia and to protect them from the vagaries of ideological politics, choosing the path of co-optation adopted by the Soviets a generation earlier. But the efforts to co-opt technological elites in the service of ideology eventually worked the other way as well: that elite, given a relatively greater degree of freedom to think and study the outside world, became familiar with and began to adopt many of the ideas current in that world.
Nonetheless, the unfolding of technologically driven economic modernization creates strong incentives for developed countries to accept the basic terms of the universal capitalist economic culture, by permitting a substantial degree of economic competition and letting prices be determined by market mechanisms. No other path toward full economic modernity has been proven to be viable. 9 The Victory of the VCR —Deng Xiaoping, in a 1982 speech1 Not a single country in the world, no matter what its political system, has ever modernized with a closed-door policy. The fact that capitalism was in some sense inevitable for advanced countries, and that Marxist-Leninist socialism was a serious obstacle to the creation of wealth and a modern technological civilization, may have seemed like commonplace knowledge by the last decade of the twentieth century.
Losing Control: The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity by Stephen D. King
Admiral Zheng, asset-backed security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, Celtic Tiger, central bank independence, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, credit crunch, crony capitalism, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Diane Coyle, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, financial innovation, fixed income, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, G4S, George Akerlof, German hyperinflation, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, income per capita, inflation targeting, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, liberal capitalism, low skilled workers, market clearing, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Naomi Klein, new economy, old age dependency ratio, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, price mechanism, price stability, purchasing power parity, rent-seeking, reserve currency, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, sovereign wealth fund, spice trade, statistical model, technology bubble, The Great Moderation, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, The Market for Lemons, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y2K, Yom Kippur War
These relationships are now rapidly being rebuilt. Changing patterns of trade and investment opportunities around the world provide compelling evidence of this shift. Yet many people are in denial. They still tend to think in the old domestic mindsets. They are slaves to national economic data that, for the most part, include only the most recent domestic economic developments. They are slaves to a world that, in effect, crumbled as Deng Xiaoping opened up China to the global economy at the beginning of the 1980s and as the Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989. During the 1980s, as cumbersome mainframe computers were replaced by PCs, economists began to calibrate statistically the ways in which economies operated. With reams of annual, quarterly, monthly, daily and even intra-day data at their disposal and with significant advances in computing power, they were able to build economic models linked to past reality (and, as the models became more complex, to ‘expected’ future reality).
And, even if multinationals only focused on the West’s best educational establishments, they’d happily find that the best universities, in turn, cast their nets further and further afield to grab the world’s brightest young people.18 Meanwhile, entrepreneurs can come from all over the world. There’s no reason why, for example, software development should reside only in Silicon Valley. Nowadays, India has its own technology industry. The economic effects of this ‘opening up’ are extraordinary. Since the 1980s, for example, Chinese incomes have risen at a faster rate than those in Europe for the first time in six centuries, thanks to Deng Xiaoping’s willingness to encourage China to engage with the rest of the world. China’s share of global output has consequently soared (from a low of 5 per cent in 1950 to 15 per cent by the beginning of the twenty-first century).19 So has its share of world trade. Chairman Mao famously boasted in the 1950s about China’s Great Leap Forward. As it turned out, he was forty or fifty years too early. Similar stories can be found all over what is now called the emerging world.
The resources used per passenger mile are less than 30 per cent of those used in the Comet. This vast improvement in productivity is, of course, good news both for the passengers and the environment. The calculation, however, reflects only technology improvement. In a world of scarce resources, what matters is not so much the improvement in technology but on how many occasions that technology is replicated. Before the arrival of Deng Xiaoping and the collapse of the Berlin Wall, technology replication was limited. Too many countries were shut off from new technologies and, even where they had access, they channelled those technologies into military, rather than civilian, ventures. No longer is this the case. More and more countries are using technology replication to improve the lives of their citizens. It may be that the Airbus A380 is much more fuel-efficient than the Comet, but, with a sevenfold rise in passenger numbers over the last forty years, greater efficiency is still consistent with higher resource utilization.
The Scandal of Money by George Gilder
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, bank run, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, borderless world, Bretton Woods, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, Claude Shannon: information theory, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, corporate governance, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Deng Xiaoping, disintermediation, Donald Trump, fiat currency, financial innovation, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, George Gilder, glass ceiling, Home mortgage interest deduction, index fund, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, inflation targeting, informal economy, Innovator's Dilemma, Internet of things, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Law of Accelerating Returns, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, Metcalfe’s law, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage tax deduction, obamacare, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, Ponzi scheme, price stability, Productivity paradox, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, Ray Kurzweil, reserve currency, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Sand Hill Road, Satoshi Nakamoto, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, secular stagnation, seigniorage, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, special drawing rights, The Great Moderation, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, time value of money, too big to fail, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, Turing machine, winner-take-all economy, yield curve, zero-sum game
I called for an efflorescence of entrepreneurship: “Let a billion flowers bloom.”2 When asked what would happen in 1997, when Great Britain was to transfer control of Hong Kong to the People’s Republic of China, I said, “1997 is the year that Hong Kong will begin to take over China.” At the time, I had no real sense of how this would happen. But the mayor of Shanghai and later PRC president, Jiang Zemin, and Premier Deng Xiaoping led a movement to duplicate the success of Hong Kong in “free zones” all along the coast of China. Beginning with Jiang’s Shanghai, these free zones, modeled on Hong Kong, produced what we all know now as the “Chinese miracle.” Conceived by Deng and Jiang, the free-zone strategy contrasts with the largely failed one-zone approach of the Soviet Union. The effort to emancipate the USSR from the center out maximized resistance, provoking bitter last-ditch opposition from all who benefited from the old system.
They do control vast regions of the country, but they do not dominate the rapidly emerging Chinese culture of enterprise, which for all its flaws and excesses is rapidly moving toward ascendancy in the world economy. China’s economic achievement, which has moved more people out of poverty than any country has ever done, proves that Jiang was right. Economic progress can definitely precede political democratization. Since 1982, when Deng Xiaoping declared that “to get rich is glorious,” China’s city dwellers have increased their incomes fourteenfold.8 Now the challenge is to show that a communist regime can use capitalist freedoms to expand democracy and civil liberty, which should be the next step for Jiang’s free-zone strategy. But our next step should be to address China’s critique of our own manipulative monetary policy. A key reason why China has led the world in growth for twenty-five years has been its rejection of American monetary advice.
See also global financial crisis Cuba, 46 currency digital, 67, 69, 72, 78–79, 86 floating, 10, 20, 33–34, 45, 57, 59, 106, 154 gold currency, 159 gold standard and, 9–10, 55, 75 manipulation, 14, 32, 40, 45–46, 49, 51 market-based, 81, 83 trading, 11–14, 34, 45, 54, 66, 89, 96–97, 101–10, 128, 133, 167–68, 170 D debt, 11, 13, 80, 89, 91, 94–95, 117, 129, 142, 152, 156–57 deflation and, 13, 78, 80, 116 inflation and, 116, 156 U.S. government, xiii–xiv, xvi, 3, 5–7, 14–15, 24, 32, 62, 93 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, xxii deflation, xix, 13, 78–81, 83, 85, 98–99, 116, 156 Democratic Party, Democrats, xi–xiii, xviii, xxi–xxii, 3–4, 6 Deng Xiaoping, 42, 51 deregulation, xvi, 13, 50, 150–51, 153 Deutsche Bank, 104, 127 digital currencies, 44, 68, 72, 79, 168, 170. See also bitcoin; Hayek money critiques of, 77 and elimination of currency speculation, 67 irreversibility of, 62–63, 70, 72, 74, 93, 157, 161, 163 popularity of, 69–70 Disney, 122 Dodd-Frank Act, 6, 57, 94 dot-com bubble, 13, 116–17, 121, 132 E eBay, 160 Ebbers, Bernie, 13 economies, xviii–xix, 23, 33, 47, 59, 85, 88, 105–6, 110, 116, 142, 156.
The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations by Daniel Yergin
3D printing, 9 dash line, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, addicted to oil, Admiral Zheng, Albert Einstein, American energy revolution, Asian financial crisis, autonomous vehicles, Ayatollah Khomeini, Bakken shale, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, British Empire, coronavirus, COVID-19, Covid-19, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, distributed generation, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, failed state, gig economy, global pandemic, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, Kickstarter, LNG terminal, Lyft, Malacca Straits, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, Masdar, mass incarceration, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, new economy, off grid, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, paypal mafia, peak oil, pension reform, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, supply-chain management, trade route, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, ubercab, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce
China’s historical chronology in State Council, People’s Republic of China, “China Adheres to the Position of Settling Through Negotiation the Relevant Disputes Between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea,” July 2016; State Council, White Paper on South China Sea, July 2016, http://english.www.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2016/07/13/content_281475392503075.htm (illegal claim). 7. Interviews with Robert Beckman and Antonio Carpio. 8. Shih Hsiu-Chuan, “Ma Addresses Nation’s Role in S China Sea,” Taipei Times, September 2, 2014; “Joining the Dashes,” The Economist, October 4, 2014. Chapter 20: “Count on the Wisdom of Following Generations” 1. Ezra Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2013); Richard Baum, Burying Mao: Chinese Politics in the Age of Deng Xiaoping (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994); Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw, The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy (New York: Touchstone, 2002), p. 197. 2. Bill Hayton, The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014), pp. 28, 121 (“not wise enough”). 3.
Or, to use a more appropriate metaphor, two navies were on a collision course.8 Chapter 20 “COUNT ON THE WISDOM OF FOLLOWING GENERATIONS” In previous decades, flare-ups over the South China Sea receded as the nations in the region focused on economic growth. For no country was that truer than for China, with its 10 percent or more annual economic growth and what it would call its “peaceful rise.” And peace was the absolute necessity to allow such growth and China’s expanding role in the global economy. Deng Xiaoping knew, from all his life experience, the costs of war and upheaval. Paramount leader for two decades, Deng masterminded China’s move toward the market and its integration with the world economy. Once one of Mao’s most important lieutenants, he had been purged twice. That gave him ample time, first during years of exile, as a laborer in a tractor factory, and then under house arrest in Mao’s later years, to reflect on what had gone wrong with the revolution.
He has reasserted the primacy of the Communist Party and the state’s dominating role in the economy, initiated a massive anticorruption campaign, promoted a more assertive great power role for China on the world stage, elevated the navy and the air force, and reined in the internet. In 2018, the National People’s Congress made him president for life, breaking with the post-Deng tradition of term limits for presidents. The congress also elevated “Xi Jinping Thought” to the level of “Mao Zedong Thought” and “Deng Xiaoping Thought.” In turn, Xi declared that China now “stood tall and firm.” He evoked a “mighty east wind” that would carry China forward. And, with a message that he said was aimed at those “who are accustomed to threatening others,” and clearly referring to the South China Sea, he declared, “It is absolutely impossible to separate a single inch of territory of our great country.” That determination would be backed up, he said, by a continued military buildup aimed at a “world-class armed forces” and what he called a “modern combat system with distinctive Chinese characteristics.”5 Incidents and near collisions continue in the South China Sea between Chinese ships and American navy vessels making “freedom of navigation patrols,” including in October 2019, when a Chinese destroyer came within forty-five yards of an American destroyer, forcing it to “jam on the brakes.”
The Post-American World: Release 2.0 by Fareed Zakaria
affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, airport security, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, call centre, capital controls, central bank independence, centre right, collapse of Lehman Brothers, conceptual framework, Credit Default Swap, currency manipulation / currency intervention, delayed gratification, Deng Xiaoping, double entry bookkeeping, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, global reserve currency, global supply chain, illegal immigration, interest rate derivative, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), knowledge economy, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, mutually assured destruction, new economy, oil shock, open economy, out of africa, Parag Khanna, postindustrial economy, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade route, Washington Consensus, working-age population, young professional, zero-sum game
That year, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, digging its grave as a superpower. And that year, China launched its economic reforms. The signal for the latter event came in December 1978 at an unlikely gathering: the Third Plenum of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, typically an occasion for empty rhetoric and stale ideology. Before the formal meeting, at a working-group session, the newly empowered party boss, Deng Xiaoping, gave a speech that turned out to be the most important in modern Chinese history. He urged that the regime focus on economic development and let facts—not ideology—guide its path. “It doesn’t matter if it is a black cat or a white cat,” Deng said. “As long as it can catch mice, it’s a good cat.” Since then, China has done just that, pursuing a path of modernization that is ruthlessly pragmatic.
In a delicately phrased set of warnings delivered in China in 2005, Lee Kuan Yew described his concerns not about China’s current leadership, or even the next generation, but about the generation after that, which will have been born in a time of stability, prosperity, and rising Chinese influence. “China’s youth must be made aware of the need to reassure the world that China’s rise will not turn out to be a disruptive force,” he said in a speech at Fudan University. Lee implied that what has kept Chinese leaders humble since Deng Xiao-ping is the bitter memory of Mao’s mistakes—fomenting revolutions abroad, the Great Leap Forward, and the Cultural Revolution, which together resulted in the deaths of about forty million Chinese. “It is vital,” Lee went on, “that the younger generation of Chinese who have only lived through a period of peace and growth and have no experience of China’s tumultuous past are made aware of the mistakes China made as a result of hubris and excesses in ideology.”
As one official there said to me, “We are clear-eyed. China has occupied Vietnam for a thousand years. It has invaded us thirteen times since then.” But he also acknowledged, “it is a huge presence, our biggest exporter”—which means that their governments and peoples must approach the relationship pragmatically. Bookstores I visited in Vietnam prominently displayed the collected speeches of the Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao. Before arriving in Vietnam, I had been in Tokyo, during Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s 2007 state visit, and I heard a similar refrain. Wen finessed the many points of tension between the two countries and instead accentuated the positive—their booming economic ties. This détente, however, is fragile and points to the principal danger in Beijing’s foreign policy—its effort to co-opt nationalism for its own purposes.
Capitalism: Money, Morals and Markets by John Plender
activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Andrei Shleifer, asset-backed security, bank run, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Black Swan, bonus culture, Bretton Woods, business climate, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, computer age, Corn Laws, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of the americas, diversification, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, financial innovation, financial intermediation, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, God and Mammon, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Meriwether, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, labour market flexibility, liberal capitalism, light touch regulation, London Interbank Offered Rate, London Whale, Long Term Capital Management, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, means of production, Menlo Park, money market fund, moral hazard, moveable type in China, Myron Scholes, Nick Leeson, Northern Rock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price stability, principal–agent problem, profit motive, quantitative easing, railway mania, regulatory arbitrage, Richard Thaler, rising living standards, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, shareholder value, short selling, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, spice trade, Steve Jobs, technology bubble, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, the map is not the territory, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, time value of money, too big to fail, tulip mania, Upton Sinclair, Veblen good, We are the 99%, Wolfgang Streeck, zero-sum game
The trail blazed first by Japan, then by the Asian Tiger economies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore, has been followed by other emerging market countries across the globe. As they go through one industrial revolution after another, these countries’ growth rates have accelerated to levels far beyond anything achieved through industrialisation in Europe and North America – most spectacularly so in the case of China, where the Communist Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping signalled a milestone in capitalism’s slow march towards respectability by declaring that ‘to get rich is glorious’. China’s economy grew at 10 per cent per annum on average during the 1990s and 2000s, while the three decades to 2010 saw an eightfold increase in per capita gross domestic product. That rate of growth is not exceptional by recent Asian standards. What is exceptional is the breathtaking scale on which poverty has been reduced.
Yet, before writing off Weber it is important to remember that his concern here related to the very specific question of whether non-European traditions had religious and cultural characteristics that were capable of giving rise spontaneously to capitalist development in the way that Protestantism had done. The fact that non-Europeans subsequently borrowed the capitalist means of production from Europeans is not, in itself, a refutation of his thesis. The ultimate watershed on business’s long march from pariah status towards semi-respectability came when the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping declared, after starting to open up China’s economy in 1978, that ‘to get rich is glorious’. Nuances may have been lost in the translation, but this embrace of capitalist values by a hardened veteran of the Communist struggle definitively put the big battalions behind the materialist side of the moral argument and appeared to draw down the curtain on the socialist backlash. It is no coincidence that Deng’s conversion broadly coincided with the ascendancy of the Chicago school of economics and the presidency of Ronald Reagan, who oversaw the conclusion of the Cold War.
The Japanese elite saw that rapid industrialisation offered the only escape from the threat of colonisation, after this crude naval attempt by the Americans to open up Japan to foreign trade. In a variation on the same theme, state revenue from manufacturing could also be put to use in financing wars. In mid-nineteenth-century Prussia, cash from substantial state-owned enterprises enabled Bismarck to escape accountability to a democratic parliament that he despised. In our own time, China’s decision under Deng Xiaoping to embrace a form of market capitalism from 1978 was driven as much or more by the desire to reassert China’s power and influence in the world – and no doubt by the Communist rulers’ urge to hang on to office – as by the wish to raise Chinese living standards. This connection between manufacturing capability and power seems to me to provide a genuine argument for concern about a decline in the manufacturing base, much as it does on the issues of energy and food security.
More From Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources – and What Happens Next by Andrew McAfee
back-to-the-land, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, Corn Laws, creative destruction, crony capitalism, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, Erik Brynjolfsson, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Haber-Bosch Process, Hans Rosling, humanitarian revolution, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, indoor plumbing, intangible asset, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Snow's cholera map, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Khan Academy, Landlord’s Game, Louis Pasteur, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, market fundamentalism, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, oil shale / tar sands, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, precision agriculture, profit maximization, profit motive, risk tolerance, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, Second Machine Age, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, telepresence, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Davenport, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, total factor productivity, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, Veblen good, War on Poverty, Whole Earth Catalog, World Values Survey
“has access to more information than the US president did just fifteen years ago”: Peter Diamandis, “The Future Is Brighter Than You Think,” CNN, May 6, 2012, https://www.cnn.com/2012/05/06/opinion/diamandis-abundance-innovation/index.html. The World Bank estimated that in 2016 more than 45 percent: “Individuals Using the Internet (% of Population),” The World Bank Data, accessed March 25, 2019, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.NET.USER.ZS?end=2016&start=1960&view=chart. “There are no fundamental contradictions between socialism and a market economy”: “Deng Xiaoping, Chinese Politician, Paramount Leader of China,” Wikiquote, September 5, 2018, https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping. the Russian-made felt pen Gorbachev tried to use didn’t work: Conor O’Clery, “Remembering the Last Day of the Soviet Union,” Irish Times, December 24, 2016, https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/conor-o-clery-remembering-the-last-day-of-the-soviet-union-1.2916499. Soviet-style socialism ended… behind the Iron Curtain: “Eastern Bloc,” Wikipedia, March 25, 2019, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Bloc#Population.
Once again new technologies are remaking our world, as they did during the Industrial Era. This time, it’s happening with head-spinning speed. Massive Market Entry Has capitalism also spread around the world in recent years? Yes. In 1978, two years after Mao Zedong died, the Central Committee of China’s Communist Party convened to decide on the country’s economic strategy. Paramount leader Deng Xiaoping persuaded his colleagues to adopt an approach radically different from the Marxist path of strong central planning and hostility to private property and international trade that had prevailed up to that point. The new approach was called “reform and opening up.” It was also referred to as “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” but a better label for it might be “Chinese authoritarianism with some capitalist characteristics.”
Møller-Maersk, 257 Apollo 8 mission, 53–54 apparent consumption, 78–79 Apple, 102, 111, 169, 235, 257 Applebaum, Anne, 218 Arab oil embargo, 161 Ardekani, Siamak, 75 artificial intelligence, 205 Asch, Solomon, 226 Atacama Desert, 17 “Atoms for Peace,” 58–59 Audubon, John James, 43, 258 Austin, Benjamin, 254 Ausubel, Jesse, 4–5, 75, 76, 78, 183 authoritarianism, 174, 217–18, 220 automobiles, 161–63 back to the land movement, 67–68, 91–93 bananas, 24 Baron, Jonathan, 127 BASF, 31 Beach, Brian, 41 beefalo, 182 Bergius, Friedrich, 31 Berzin, Alfred, 164 Bezos, Jeff, 206 Bhattacharjee, Amit, 127 Bishop, Bill, 227 Bismarck, Otto von, 225 bison, 44–46, 96, 152–53, 183 Blake, William, 40–41 Blomqvist, Linus, 270 Bloom, Paul, 210 blue whales, 47 Borlaug, Norman, 31–32, 262 Bosch, Carl, 31 Boulding, Kenneth, 63–65 Boulton, Matthew, 15–16, 20, 121, 206 Bowling Alone (Putnam), 213 Brand, Stewart, 67–68, 182, 183 Brandeis, Louis, 259 Brazil, 173, 174 Brynjolfsson, Erik, 112, 205 Bump, Philip, 224 cap-and-trade programs, 143–44, 145, 187, 188 capitalism, 2–3, 4, 5, 36, 99–123, 113, 125–39, 141, 151, 158–59, 161, 167–68 critiques of, 126–31 defining of, 115–18 negatives of, 142–43 spread of, 170–73 carbon capture systems, 187 carbon dioxide, 185, 188–89 carbon offsets, 259–60 carbon taxes, 187, 249–50, 252, 257, 259 Caro, Robert, 29n Case, Steve, 256 CBS Evening News with Walter Cronkite, 53 central planning, 116, 122, 170 cerium, 107 Chávez, Hugo, 134–35 Chicago and North Western Railway, 105–06 child labor, 35, 38–39, 167 child mortality, 196–97 China, 85, 93–94, 106, 110, 133, 145, 154, 172, 174, 185 chlorofluorocarbons, 149–50, 185, 228, 249 cholera, 22–23, 26 Christensen, Clay, 265 Christmas Carol, A (Dickens), 24 chromium, 72 Church, George, 182 Cichon, Steve, 101–02 circle of sympathy, 176 Civil War, US, 38 Clapham, Phillip, 163 Clark, Gregory, 10–11, 20 Clean Air Act, 66, 95, 122, 143, 147, 161 Clean Water Act (1972), 66, 190, 252–53 climate change, 60, 158, 185, 228, 243, 248, 257, 269, 274 Clinton, Hillary, 201, 224 Closing Circle, The (Commoner), 64 coal, 16, 18, 19, 40, 41, 56 as finite resource, 48–49 Coal Question, The (Jevons), 48, 49 Coase, Ronald, 143 collusion, 129 colonialism, 35, 39–40, 167 Commoner, Barry, 64 commons, 183–84 communism, 133, 172 Communist Manifesto, The (Marx and Engels), 21 comparative advantage, 19n competition, 109–10, 116, 129, 203 computer-aided design, 113 computers, 141 concentration, 199–210, 218, 224 economic, 202–03 industrial, 204 of wealth, 205–07 Condition of the Working Class in England, The (Engels), 21 Congo Free State, 39 conservationists, 95–96 conspicuous consumption, 152 Constitution, US, 38 consumption, 63–64, 88–90 contract enforcement, 116 Cooke, Earl, 60 Coors, 101 copper, 79, 80, 90, 107, 120 coprolite, 18 Cordier, Daniel, 106–07 Corn Laws, 18, 172 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, 162 corporatism, 129 corruption, 175 cotton industry, 38 cotton textiles, 19 Cramer, Kathy, 221 CRIB, 62–68, 87–97 cronyism, 129 Crookes, William, 30 crude oil, 58 “Crude Oil” (GAO), 103 Crutzen, Paul, 150 Cuba, 133 Cutler, David, 28 Cutter, Bo, 105 Cuyahoga River, 54 Daimler, Gottlieb, 26–27 Dana, Jason, 127 Davenport, Thomas, 27 de-extinction movement, 182 death penalty, 176 deaths of despair, 214, 216, 219–20, 247 Deaton, Angus, 210, 213–14, 220 DeepMind, 239–40 deforestation, 43, 184–85 degrowth, 63–64, 88 demand, 50–51 dematerialization, 4–5, 71, 72–73, 75–85, 87, 125, 141, 144, 151–52, 160, 167, 168, 235, 247–48, 259 causes of, 99–123 paths to, 110–11 Demick, Barbara, 94 democracy, 174 Democracy in America (Tocqueville), 89–90 democratic socialism, 133–34 Deng Xiaoping, 170 Denmark, 117–18 developing countries, 56 Devezas, Tessaleno, 73 Dickens, Charles, 24 digital tools, 234–35 Dijkstra, Lewis, 199 Dimon, Jamie, 256 Ding Xuedong, 253 disconnection, 211–29, 247, 253–54, 255, 270–71 diversity, 216–17 Dodge, Irving, 45 Donora, Pa., 41, 55, 66, 145 Dragusanu, Raluca, 268 data centers, 240 Duolingo, 236 DuPont, 149 Durkheim, Emile, 215–16, 219 Earth Day, 3, 53, 60–61 Earthrise, 53–54 Ecology as Politics (Gorz), 63–64 Edison, Thomas, 27 education, 177, 195, 256 Ehrlich, Paul, 55, 59, 62, 65, 71–72, 75, 151, 244–45 Eisenhower, Dwight, 58 electrical power, 26–28, 29, 30, 36 Elephant Graph, 221–23 elephants, 153–54 Elop, Stephen, 102 Emancipation Proclamation, 38 emancipative values, 176 energy consumption, 58–60, 59 Energy Information Administration, US, 103 Engels, Friedrich, 21 Engels Pause, 20, 23 England, 18–20, 22, 38 abolitionist movement in, 37 air pollution in, 41 population of, 10–11 population versus wages in, 20 Enlightenment, 122–23 Enlightenment Now (Pinker), 37, 176, 179 environmental movement, 53, 65, 68, 122 Environmental Protection Agency, 66, 95 ephemeralization, 70–71 epidemiology, 22 Essay on the Principle of Population, An, (Malthus), 8–9, 10, 13 Evans, Benedict, 173 externalities, 142 extinctions, 35, 36, 42–43, 61, 96, 151–52, 167, 181–82 Factfulness (Rosling), 179 Factory Act (1833), 38 factory ships, 47 Fair Trade certification, 268 false imprisonment, 175 famine, 12, 13, 61, 62, 69 Famine 1975!
From the Ruins of Empire: The Intellectuals Who Remade Asia by Pankaj Mishra
anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, British Empire, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, Deng Xiaoping, European colonialism, financial innovation, invention of the telegraph, joint-stock company, Khartoum Gordon, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, Monroe Doctrine, New Urbanism, plutocrats, Plutocrats, profit motive, Scramble for Africa, the scientific method, upwardly mobile, urban planning, Washington Consensus, young professional
He also successfully advocated China’s entry into the First World War in 1917; he calculated that to emerge on the winning side was the best way to insert China into the international system, cancel the unequal treaties that still bound her, and recover the Shandong peninsula from the Japanese. As part of Liang’s deal with the Allied powers, Chinese workers and students, among them the first generation of Communist leaders such as Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping travelled to France to work and study there. Nevertheless, Liang’s political career had proved to be disastrous. Returning to China after fifteen years, he had thrown himself into the tumult of the post-Qing state only to find himself utterly compromised by politically expedient associations with corrupt and violent warlords. One of the many wild pendulum swings of political fortune in post-Yuan China finally dispossessed him, and forced him to retire from active involvement in the political scene.
Still hopelessly aspiring to restore the monarchy with Confucian underpinnings, Kang Youwei nevertheless admitted that if any ‘real public opinion or real people’s rights have been seen in China in the eight years’, it was due to the ‘students’ actions’.45 The Chinese worker-students who had gone to France during the war had not been as unlucky as Vietnamese and Indian soldiers. Still, they returned to China radicalized by their harsh exposure to Europe. Deng Xiaoping later recalled the ‘sufferings of life and the humiliations brought upon [us] by … the running dogs of capitalists’.46 Upon arrival in France, I learned from those students studying on a work-study program who had come to France earlier that two years after World War I, labor was no longer as badly needed as in the wartime … and it was hard to find jobs. Since wages were low, it was impossible to support study through work.
Many Chinese looked forward to 1997 – the year the British lease on Hong Kong, exacted from the hapless emperor after the Opium War, was to expire – as a likely salve for a ‘century of humiliation’; and anyone appearing to stand in their way – Margaret Thatcher, the British prime minister, or Chris Patten, the last British viceroy of Hong Kong – or seeming to display the old British attitude of condescension and superiority was attacked, often viciously. Nothing revealed British weakness in Chinese eyes (and gladdened Chinese hearts) more than a widely distributed picture of Mrs Thatcher emerging from a blunt talking-to by Deng Xiaoping and then stumbling on the steps of Beijing’s Great Hall of the People and ending up on her knees. The handover of 1997 came and went. The British retreated; Hong Kong returned to Chinese control. But Chinese nationalism, inflamed again in 1999 by NATO’s accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and by other real and imagined slights from the West, remains a potent force. One of the entrances to the parklands of the Summer Palace still displays a sign saying: ‘Do not forget the national shame, rebuild the Chinese nation.’
The Next Factory of the World: How Chinese Investment Is Reshaping Africa by Irene Yuan Sun
barriers to entry, Bretton Woods, capital controls, clean water, Computer Numeric Control, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, European colonialism, floating exchange rates, full employment, global supply chain, invisible hand, job automation, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, manufacturing employment, means of production, mobile money, post-industrial society, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Skype, special economic zone, structural adjustment programs, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, union organizing, Washington Consensus, working-age population
Whereas Japan had taken thirty-five years to double its GDP, South Korea took only eleven and became the first country to rise from the UN’s “least developed country” status to membership in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the club of wealthy nations.13 It was no accident, then, that these same countries invested in factories in China. As Mr. Sun was dropping out of school and going to work in a factory in Wenzhou, foreign investment from companies experiencing high costs in their home countries flooded into China, and large numbers of Chinese laborers, like the Mr. Chens, went to work for Taiwanese and other foreign firms. In the early 1980s, when China was poorer on a per capita basis than Ethiopia and Mali, Deng Xiaoping set the country a target that seemed crazy at the time: quadrupling its GDP in twenty years and quadrupling it again in another fifty years—that is, increasing it sixteenfold by 2050.14 Ignoring the Washington Consensus and other Western development advice, the Chinese strategy was Mr. Sun’s strategy on a grand scale: learn how to make things, make them, and sell them. It worked. China became the Factory of the World, accounting for a quarter of the entire global manufacturing output.15 In the process, its GDP grew at nearly 10 percent a year for three decades, lifting 750 million people out of poverty—the most that any nation has ever accomplished.16 China beat South Korea’s record for doubling GDP, doing it in only nine years and erasing any suspicion that the flying geese theory applied only to the small countries of Asia.
It happens in factories and shops, in run-down government offices and on unwieldy pieces of industrial machinery, in the aspirations of men trying to start their own businesses and the spirit of women going to work for the first time. True development is a micro process, not a macro one. For the development institutions of this moment to chart a new path past the failures of their predecessors, they must refashion global development to be more humble, more creative, and more responsive to changing conditions and emerging opportunities. Two generations ago, China pioneered this approach when Deng Xiaoping called for his country to “cross the river by feeling the stones”—advice that recognizes the limits of grand planning and instead privileges learning and flexibility. Rather than re-creating and extending an ossified global development industry, with its theories and its experts, the new institutions backed by developing countries should aim for a different model, one that rejects dogma and reflects their own incremental, idiosyncratic experiences.
., 52 unions in, 102–105 See also textile manufacturing Coca-Cola, 138 colonialism, 129 commitment, personal, 32–33, 45–47, 70–71, 85, 167–169 commodity prices, 65 competitor sets, 52–53 corruption, 7–8, 74, 130 in manufacturing, 74–81 in Nigeria, 39, 40–41, 63, 75–78, 136–140 Corruption Perceptions Index, 77 Côte d’Ivoire, 120 cultural differences, 97–98 customers, 52–54, 65 Dangote, Aliko, 10 demand, changes in, 65 demographics, 92–94, 181n11, 190n14 Deng Xiaoping, 29–30, 175 Department for International Development, UK, 82, 154 diversity, 51–54 Doctors Without Borders, 158–159 donor fatigue, 158–159 Dutch disease, 36 East Asian miracle, 29 Ebola virus, 158 economic development, 106–107 bootstrapping, 132–136, 147–148, 165–166 China, 18–19, 28, 29–30 East Asia, 29 education and, 4–5 endowment theory of, 9–10, 135–136 flying geese theory and, 27–29 future of, 174–177 industrialization and, 12–13, 20 leapfrogging, 22 overconfidence for, 165–166 Washington Consensus on, 20–22 education, 4–5, 30, 95–96 worker skills training, 129–134, 148–150 Edwards, Lawrence, 57 efficiency, 46–47, 71–72, 118 employment, 43–44, 89–107 benefits of manufacturing, 94–96 cultural differences and, 96–98 difficulty of factory, 91, 100–101 fluctuations in, 57, 64 full, 91, 93 informal sector, 94 labor- vs. capital-intensive production and, 51, 52 learning manufacturing through, 17–19, 23–26, 89–91 of locals vs. expatriates, 57, 92–93, 184n5 stability in, 60–61, 64 of youth, 130 enabling context, 135 endowment theory of development, 9–10, 135–136 environmental issues, 7–8, 70, 74, 75, 81, 175–177 ethics issues, 159–160 Ethiopia, 11, 73 factory ownership in, 113 local ownership in, 120–123 pharmaceutical industry, 121–123, 156–157, 163–169 Eubank, Nicholas, 140–141 European Union, 53–54 exchange rates, 36–37, 54, 56, 65 FAW, 2, 5–6, 12 flexibility, 146–148 flip-flops, 46–47, 63 flying geese theory, 9, 23–30, 93, 112–113 Fokuo, Isaac, 129–132 Ford Foundation, 82 foreign investment, 33–34, 42–44, 73–74 Formosa denim mill, 57–61, 64, 184n6 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, 137 Four Asian Tigers, 29 Frederick, Kenneth, 79–81 French, Howard, 97 Gap, Inc., 117 Gates Foundation, 154 GDP from African manufacturing, 41 China, 2–3, 29–30 Ghana, 41 Lesotho, 62, 184n13 manufacturing and increased, 26–27 Nigeria, 36, 62 gel capsules, 121–123 Germany, pharmaceutical industry in, 156, 192n12 Gerschenkron, Alexander, 99 Ghana, 41 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), 166, 167, 194n37 global competition, 37–39, 40–41, 70, 71–74 Global Corruption Barometer, 137 Global Fund, 154, 159 Goodall, Jane, 129 governance, 22, 82 bootstrapping development and, 132–136 good enough, 129–150 improving through using, 136–142 innovation and, 142–148 Nigerian customs agency and, 136–140 prevailing views on, 134–136 government development of with industrialization, 82–84 enforcement capacity and, 79–81 export-oriented manufacturing and, 63–64 loans, 65 Nigerian textile manufacturing and, 35, 37–39, 53 pharmaceutical industry and, 164–165 regulatory systems, 70, 74–75 in shaping manufacturing sectors, 65–66 Washington Consensus on, 20 Gu, Barry, 67–69, 84–85 Han, Jason, 138–140 hardships, willingness to endure, 167–168.
Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism by George A. Akerlof, Robert J. Shiller
"Robert Solow", affirmative action, Andrei Shleifer, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, business cycle, buy and hold, collateralized debt obligation, conceptual framework, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, financial innovation, full employment, George Akerlof, George Santayana, housing crisis, Hyman Minsky, income per capita, inflation targeting, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jean Tirole, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, market bubble, market clearing, mental accounting, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Myron Scholes, new economy, New Urbanism, Paul Samuelson, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price stability, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, South Sea Bubble, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, transaction costs, tulip mania, working-age population, Y2K, Yom Kippur War
The stories people tell are also stories about how the economy behaves. Indeed, it is in this last category, stories, where Animal Spirits itself fits in, because the goal of the book is to give its own story about how the economy behaves. Its intent is to tell a more accurate story than the dominant one of the past thirty years or so, ever since the free market revolution that swept the world, under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, Deng Xiaoping, Manmohan Singh, Mikhail Gorbachev, Brian Mulroney, Bertie Ahern, Carlos Salinas de Gotari, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Carlos Menem, and others. These stories, embellished by oft told vignettes of newly successful people, and in their mostly justified enthusiasm for expanded free markets, led to too much economic tolerance. Underlying this revolution is the powerful principle of the “invisible hand”—that market forces should be the fundamental framework of resource allocation.
A 1990 poster shows a smiling Lei Feng, a young, handsome, traditional hero, writing the word save on a money box. In the 1990s big red banners were hung in the streets: “Saving is glorious.” These campaigns, which made saving everyone’s patriotic duty, set the stage for today’s high saving rates. The modern economic history of China begins in 1978, two years after the death of Chairman Mao Zedong. In a celebrated speech at the third plenum of the Eleventh Party Congress, Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping made it clear that the government would support private investment in China. The Chinese economic miracle had begun. Some small Chinese villages, such as Huaxi and Liutuan, made spectacularly successful investments in village enterprises starting in the late 1970s. Renowned for their success, they became models throughout China. In these villages saving, in the form of labor or money contributed to the village enterprise, was practically demanded by the village elders.
We old people don’t really like to buy fancy stuff and it’s the young generation like you who want fancy cars and fancy clothes. We are still influenced by the old Lei Feng example of frugality and struggle against harsh conditions.” Andy asked him if he had made any appeal to patriotism or collectivism to get the villagers to contribute to the enterprise, and the mayor answered: “Yes indeed. I basically used three kinds of arguments. First, the country has been changing. Deng Xiaoping has opened the country up and what we would be doing would change the country and make it a better place. Secondly, I told them that the village business is good for the village itself and was good for everybody. Thirdly, I told them that I managed this business secretly for ten years and I knew how it worked, so my managerial skills could be trusted.” “Did they trust you?” “They did. I was very grateful that they were trusting.
Reinventing the Bazaar: A Natural History of Markets by John McMillan
"Robert Solow", accounting loophole / creative accounting, Albert Einstein, Alvin Roth, Andrei Shleifer, Anton Chekhov, Asian financial crisis, congestion charging, corporate governance, corporate raider, crony capitalism, Dava Sobel, Deng Xiaoping, experimental economics, experimental subject, fear of failure, first-price auction, frictionless, frictionless market, George Akerlof, George Gilder, global village, Hernando de Soto, I think there is a world market for maybe five computers, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job-hopping, John Harrison: Longitude, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, land reform, lone genius, manufacturing employment, market clearing, market design, market friction, market microstructure, means of production, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, ought to be enough for anybody, pez dispenser, pre–internet, price mechanism, profit maximization, profit motive, proxy bid, purchasing power parity, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, sealed-bid auction, second-price auction, Silicon Valley, spectrum auction, Stewart Brand, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transaction costs, War on Poverty, Xiaogang Anhui farmers, yield management
Then a high-level Beijing official traveled to Xiaogang and neighboring villages to study the effects of individual farming. His report, which concluded that individual farming increased output and improved living standards, became influential when it was circulated among the national leaders. At a Communist Party conference in 1982, four years after the Xiaogang villagers’ meeting, China’s paramount leader Deng Xiaoping endorsed the reforms. In 1983 the central government formally proclaimed individual farming to be consistent with the socialist economy and therefore permissible. By 1984, just six years after Xiaogang started the movement, there were no communes left. The communes had relied on appeals to work for the common good more than on individual incentives. Attempts had been made to create some personal incentives, but they were mostly ineffectual.
“The enthusiasm of the farmers was frustrated,” said Yan Junchang, a Xiaogang village leader. “No matter how hard I rang the bell or blew the whistle, I couldn’t get anyone to go into the fields.” The missing incentives translated into low output. Agricultural productivity was actually lower in 1978 than it had been in 1949, when the communists took over. Some in the West used to see the communes in a romantic light. At a White House dinner party held in honor of Deng Xiaoping during his visit to the United States in 1979, just after the reforms had begun, he was seated next to Shirley MacLaine. The movie star took the opportunity to describe her trip to China in 1973, during the Cultural Revolution, that time of national paranoia when many who were out of favor with Mao Zedung’s government were forcibly removed from the cities and compelled to work in communes. “Learn from the peasants,” these displaced urbanites were ordered.
The political situation in China through the 1980s and 1990s was stable but not impregnable. While the communist government faced no challenge, it had lost whatever legitimacy it might once have had, reform-era China being communist only in name. Its legitimacy as the government, and its ability to preempt any future political opposition, rested on its delivering economic growth. High officials in Deng Xiaoping’s government understood enough about economics to recognize that growth requires markets and markets require assured property rights. The Communist Party had retained its highly disciplined organization and so was able to prevent self-seeking behavior by low-level officials. The state motivated local officials to maintain agricultural output growth by rewarding them with bonus payments and promotion, and by firing them if output targets were not met.
Mad Mobs and Englishmen? Myths and Realities of the 2011 Riots by Steve Reicher, Cliff Stott
A breath of madness seemed to have passed over this mob. If we move closer to the present day we find a Romanian Communist Party Official describing the crowds challenging the rule of President Ceausescu as ‘hooligans, fascists, and corrupt and retrograde elements ... They also attracted children into these actions. All were drunk, including the children and the women.’47 Equally, the Chinese Communist leader Deng Xiaoping characterized the events of Tiananmen Square as ‘a planned conspiracy’. Those taking part were ‘an extremely small number of people with ulterior motives taking advantage of the young students’ feelings ... to spread all kinds of rumours to poison and confuse people’s minds.’48 Finally, moving right up to 2011, we can look to the Arab Spring. In Tunisia, the country that started things off, the former Defence Minister Kamel Morjane complained in his resignation speech that ‘the Government is working hard from within to portray the protestors as mindless terrorists destroying their country and refusing any peaceful discussion.’49 Not long afterwards unrest spread to Egypt, where President Mubarak acknowledged that at first protestors were noble and peaceful.
In one of those cities alone, Detroit, 43 people died, 467 were injured, there were over 7,000 arrests whilst over 2,000 buildings were destroyed.81 Yet, for all this, evidence moved Fogelson to write that restraint and selectivity were among the most crucial features of the riots.82 Agitator Arguments This final approach serves two functions. On the one hand, the notion that outsiders – especially foreign outsiders – control crowds allows authorities to declare that riots are not the work of ‘our’ people but rather work against our people. From Deng Xiaoping and his ‘planned conspiracy’ to Ceausescu and his ‘small number of people with ulterior motives’ and the Daily Express’s ‘Moscow trained hit squads’, the idea is that anyone who condones riots is a traitor. On the other hand, the agitator myth implicitly recognizes that riots are more organized and less chaotic than is often admitted. This theory explains the efficiency of mobs. After all, if mobs are mindless, surely someone must be telling them what to do?
Capitalism, Alone: The Future of the System That Rules the World by Branko Milanovic
"Robert Solow", affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, assortative mating, barriers to entry, basic income, Berlin Wall, bilateral investment treaty, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, colonial rule, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of the americas, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, ghettoisation, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global value chain, high net worth, income inequality, income per capita, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, land reform, liberal capitalism, low skilled workers, Lyft, means of production, new economy, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-materialism, purchasing power parity, remote working, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, uber lyft, universal basic income, Vilfredo Pareto, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce, working-age population, Xiaogang Anhui farmers
This is the first important characteristic of the system—that bureaucracy (which is clearly the primary beneficiary of the system) has as its main duty to realize high economic growth and implement policies that allow this goal to be achieved. Growth is needed for the legitimization of its rule. The bureaucracy needs to be technocratic and the selection of its members merit-based if it is to be successful, especially since the rule of law is absent. The absence of a binding rule of law is the second important characteristic of the system. Deng as the founding father of modern political capitalism Deng Xiaoping, China’s preeminent leader from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, could be considered the founding father of modern political capitalism, an approach—more than an ideology—that combines private-sector dynamism, efficient rule of bureaucracy, and a one-party political system. Zhao Ziyang, who was prime minister of China and, for a brief period, secretary general of the Communist Party (but was deposed in 1989 after the Tiananmen events), described in his memoirs Deng’s political views thus: “[He] was particularly opposed to a multiparty system, tripartite separation of power and the parliamentary system of western nations—and firmly rejected them.
The Soviet Union, after World War II, simultaneously liberated and occupied some of these same countries by imposing its own economic and political system. Likewise, and on a much grander scale, the United States promoted and often imposed the capitalist system through coups and military actions. Is China ready to do the same? But first we have to ask whether political capitalism, as defined by Deng Xiaoping, is likely to survive for a long time in China itself. 3.5a Will the Bourgeoisie Ever Rule the Chinese State? China is not the West. But what exactly is the difference, in the long-term context, between the two? This is a huge question that has acquired additional importance in the past two decades due to the rise of China, the evident contrast between the organization of Chinese and Western economies, and (not least) the much improved historical data we now have.
Report No. 113092, Washington DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/147231519162198351/pdf/China-SCD-publishing-version-final-for-submission-02142018.pdf. World Bank. 2019. The Changing Nature of Work. World Development Report 2019. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/816281518818814423/2019-WDR-Concept-Note.pdf. World Inequality Report 2018, coordinated by Facunto Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman. Paris, December 2017. Wu, Guoyou. 2015. The Period of Deng Xiaoping’s Reformation. Beijing: Xinhua Publishing House / Foreign Language Press. Wu, Ximing, and Jeffrey Perloff. 2005. “China’s Income Distribution, 1985–2001.” Review of Economics and Statistics 87(4): 763–775. Xia, Ming. 2000. The Dual Developmental State: Development Strategy and Institutional Arrangements for China’s Transition. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate. Xie, Chuntao. 2016. Fighting Corruption: How the CPC Works.
McMafia: A Journey Through the Global Criminal Underworld by Misha Glenny
anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, BRICs, colonial rule, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Firefox, forensic accounting, friendly fire, glass ceiling, illegal immigration, joint-stock company, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, Pearl River Delta, place-making, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Skype, special economic zone, Stephen Hawking, trade liberalization, trade route, Transnistria, unemployed young men, upwardly mobile
Its dissolution followed no obvious pattern, occurring instead as a series of seemingly disparate events: the spectacular rise of the Japanese car industry; Communist Hungary’s clandestine approach to the International Monetary Fund to explore a possible application for membership; the stagnation of India’s economy; President F. W. de Clerk’s first discreet contacts with the imprisoned Nelson Mandela; the advent of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in China; Margaret Thatcher’s decisive confrontation with Britain’s trades union movement. Individually, these and other events seemed to reflect the everyday ups and downs of politics; at most they were adjustments to the world order. In fact, powerful currents below the surface had provoked a number of economic crises and opportunities, especially outside the great citadels of power in Western Europe and the United States, that were to have profound consequences for the emergence of what we now call globalization.
Tens of millions didn’t make it or were so damaged by the state-inflicted violence that their lives were barely worth living. This was especially so in Chen’s poor community in Fujian. Mao Zedong suspected this backward province of harboring all manner of class traitors and counterrevolutionaries, and so for two decades he neglected the region as a punishment for suspected thought crimes and recidivist bourgeois habits. Perhaps it was to compensate for Mao’s vindictive behavior that China’s great reformer, Deng Xiaoping, chose the city of Xiamen in southern Fujian as one of the first special economic zones (SEZs) in the early 1980s to inspire local entrepreneurs in thawing out the economy that had been frozen solid by the Maoist ice age. Agog at the success of the Xiamen experiment, it wasn’t long before Fuzhou’s local bosses opened up the provincial capital as well. Deng did not confer the honor on Fujian by chance—80 percent of Taiwan’s people trace their roots back to Fujian.
A few weeks before this, the government in Beijing had relaxed restrictions on foreign journalists, allowing them to travel anywhere in the country without prior permission. Nonetheless, within a matter of hours of his arrival in Zhushan, Reynolds was detained, interrogated, and then expelled from the town. Anything is possible in the Chinese strategy of creating jobs. “It doesn’t matter whether the cat is black or white,” mused Deng Xiaoping when he was explaining the need to introduce economic reforms in the 1980s. “It only matters if it catches mice.” It doesn’t matter how China runs the economy, as long as it makes money. Deng realized that for the Chinese to make money, the traditions of central economic planning had to be dumped, and so for twenty-five years (and especially since the early 1990s) the government has afforded the provinces considerable autonomy in their economic policy.
Divided: Why We're Living in an Age of Walls by Tim Marshall
affirmative action, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, end world poverty, facts on the ground, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, New Urbanism, open borders, openstreetmap, profit motive, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, the built environment, trade route, unpaid internship, urban planning
For the most part, they settled for ignoring it – to begin with, at least. During the Cultural Revolution, however, the most fervent of the Red Guards actively destroyed sections of the wall – to them it was a part of the ‘Four Olds’, which had no place in the new China: Old Customs, Old Culture, Old Habits and Old Ideas. Mao died in 1976, and with him the Cultural Revolution. After 1978 the new leader, Deng Xiaoping, began a methodical reconstruction of the wall. He started slowly – the early post-Mao years were a time for caution – but by 1984 he was confident enough to pronounce, ‘Let us love our China and restore our Great Wall.’ In this particular endeavour, it’s likely that Deng had one eye on tourism and foreign currency; the Communist leadership was beginning to embrace aspects of capitalism, and was well aware of how far it had fallen behind other parts of the world.
Mao may have reunited the country but it came at the cost of development, and at exactly the time when other nations in the region were emerging into the world economy and rapidly improving themselves. Japan, South Korea, Singapore and others were all outpacing China in economic terms, some in a military capacity as well. If this trend were to continue, it would threaten both China’s defensive security and its internal cohesion, once it became apparent to all how far behind the Chinese had fallen. Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, took a deep breath and a gamble: if Chinese consumers were too poor to buy many of the goods China could produce, the economy had to be opened up to the outside world once more. This meant trading via the Pacific coast, so the coastal regions would again prosper more quickly than the interior, thus risking a repeat of the divisions of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. It was, and still is, a race against the clock.
Macgoye) 159 Communist Party Chinese government 12, 15, 18–21, 23–33 Soviet Union 188 Congress Party, India 132 Cornish nationalists 225 Coulter, Ann 39 Creemers, Rogier 28–9, 30, 31 crime rates, African 172 Crisis Resolution Security Services 40–1 Croatia 2, 199, 200 Cultural Revolution, Chinese 15 cyber-security legislation, Chinese 30–3 Cyprus 244 D Dalits/Untouchables 146–9 Darling, Patrick 160 d’Azeglio, Massimo 196 defection from East Germany 185–6, 188–90 Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) 107 Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) 164, 166 Deng Xiaoping 15–16, 21, 26 Denmark 2, 200, 202–3 Deterling, Harry 186 Dome of the Rock 82 drug running 46, 51–2 Duffy, Gillian 234 Durand, Henry Mortimer 143 Durand Line 143 Dynamo Dresden ‘Ultras’ 210 E e-commerce 33 East Germany 183–7, 188–9, 190–1 East Pakistan see Bangladesh Eastern European migrants 194–6, 234–5 Eastern Turkestan Republic 17 The Economist 173 education China 24–5 Germany 191 Israel 85 Middle East 115 United Kingdom 231 United States of America 58–9, 63–4 Edward I of England, King 222 Egypt 78, 89–90, 101, 106 Egyptian–Israel border wall 78 English Channel 200 Eritrea 165 Estonia 2, 198 Ethiopia 165 Europe 2, 6, 116, 186–8 European Commission 197 European Economic Community (EEC) 193 European Union 3, 6, 193 border controls 198–200, 210–11 dilution of sovereignty 193–4 Eurozone 194, 196 financial crash (2008) 196 freedom of movement 194–6 immigration 194–6, 197–202, 203–11, 246, 250–1 Muslim population and integration 203–6, 239–40 nationalism 6, 193, 196–8, 206–12 public services 201–2 terrorism 200, 201, 205 uniting East and West Europe 194–6 see also individual countries by name F Facebook 4, 29 Farook, Syed Rizwan 51 Farrakhan, Louis 65 Fatah 87, 88–9 Federally Administered Tribal Areas 144 Fergany, Nader 112 financial crash (2008) 196 financial inequality 175 Africa 170–1, 172–3, 174, 176–7 China 12, 20, 21–3, 26 Germany 191 Israel 81–2, 85 United Kingdom 231–3 First Intifada (1987–93) 74, 90 flooding 133–6 Foreign Affairs magazine 205–6, 246–7 foreign aid budgets 250 France 201–2, 203, 204–6, 211 Freedom Party, Austria 211 G Gandhi, Indira 129 Gandhi, Mahatma 125, 147 Gandhi, Rajiv 129 gated communities 172–6 Gaza 74, 87–90, 245–6 General Law of Population (1974), Mexican 50 Gerges, Fawaz 78, 114 Germany ageing population 201 Berlin Wall 1, 183–4, 185–6, 188–9, 192 East and West Germany 183–93 immigration 201, 207–11 Muslim population figures 204 right-wing parties 209–11 unification 189–93 Ghana 169, 176 Gleicke, Iris 209 globalization 4, 53, 170, 233, 249 ‘Gold Star parents’, US 61 Good Friday Agreement (1998) 226–7 Goodhart, David 232–3 Goodwill Zwelithini kaBhekuzulu, King 171 Gorbachev, Mikhail 1, 188 Graham, Lindsey 40 Great Depression 46 Great Firewall of China 27–33 Great Wall of China 12–16 Greece 2, 194, 199, 200–1, 205, 207 Green March, Moroccan 156 Green Zone, Baghdad 100–1, 243–4 Guizhou province, China 24 H Hadith 113 Hadrian, Rod 40 Hadrian’s Wall 217–18, 219, 220–1 Hamas 78, 87–9, 91, 93 Han people 13–14, 17, 18, 19, 27 Handala 72 Haredi Jews 80, 81–4 Hari, Michael 41 Harkat-ul-Jihad al Islami 132 Heyer, Heather 64 Hezbollah 102 Himalayas 19, 134, 140 Hindus 125, 128–9, 131–2, 135, 145–50 Hollande, François 205 Honecker, Erich 188 Houphouët-Boigny, Félix 169 Houthis’ forces, Shia 104, 108 hukou system 24 Human Rights Watch 130 human settlement, early 4 Hungary 2, 188, 194, 199–200, 205, 207, 246 hunter-gatherers 2 Hussein, Saddam 101, 107, 109, 111 Hutus 166 I ijtihad 113 immigration within Africa 171–2 Egyptian–Israel border 78 European Union 194–6, 197–202, 205–6, 207–12, 246, 250–1 importance of integration 250–1 India 124–5, 126, 127, 128–32, 135, 248 Kuwait–Iraq border 110 Mexico 44–5, 50 ‘open borders’ theory 246–9 United Kingdom 234–5 United States of America 41, 46–51, 56–7 Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) 46–7 independence movements, African 155–7, 164–5 India 19 Bangladesh border fence 2, 123–5, 130, 133 Bango Bhoomi theory 132–3 Bhutan and Nepal borders 140 caste system 145–9 Comprehensive Integrated Border Management System (CIBMS) 141–2 immigration 124–5, 126, 127, 128–32, 135 Kashmir – ‘Line of Control’ 141, 142, 143 Myanmar border and Naga tribes 138–40 Pakistan border 2, 140–3, 145 partition of 125–6, 127, 140, 141 religious divisions 125–6, 129, 131–3, 135, 145–9 unrest in Assam 128–30 India Pakistan Border Ground Rules Agreement (1960–61) 142 Initium Media 29 Inkatha Freedom Party 168 Inner Mongolia 17 International Court of Justice (ICJ) 167–8 International Organization for Migration 134–5 internet 5, 27–33, 112, 113 Iran 2, 6, 102, 104, 105, 106, 108, 110, 111, 116, 144 Iran–Iraq War 5 Iraq 2, 42, 100–1, 103–4, 107–8, 109–10, 111, 116, 246 Iraq War (2003–11) 100–1, 109, 116 Iraqi Kurdistan 111 Ireland 229, 235 Iron Curtain 184, 186–7 Islam in Africa 170 Dome of the Rock 82 ijtihad and the ‘closing of the Arab mind’ 113 in India 125–6, 129 integration in the EU 203–6 radical organizations 18, 51, 79, 101, 104, 105, 107, 114, 128, 137, 246 Sunni and Shia division 4, 5, 6, 102–3, 104–6, 107–8, 109, 115, 116, 144 Uighur Muslims 18 in the United Kingdom 204, 237–9 Islamic State (IS) 18, 79, 104, 105, 107, 114, 246 Israel 1, 6 Arab population 84–6 Bedouin community 85–6 Christian population 85 comparative stability 92–3 division amongst Jews 80–4 education 85 ethnic divides 79 financial inequality 81–2, 85 gender divisions 82–3 Israel Defense Force (IDF) 86 political divides 83 religious sites 82–3 Israel and Palestine 1, 6, 71–3 East Jerusalem 74 Gaza border 78, 245 history of borders dispute 73–4 Iron Dome anti-missile system 245–6 Israeli point of view 74, 76–8, 79, 84 Jewish settlements in the West Bank 74, 76 Palestinian point of view 74, 76, 78, 90–1 suicide bombers 76–7, 78, 245 two-state solution 77, 84, 88, 92 ‘Walled Off Hotel’ 72–3 West Bank dividing wall 71–3, 74, 76–7 Italy 196, 197, 200, 201, 205 Ivory Coast 169 J Jabotinsky, Ze’ev (Vladimir) 77–8 Jacobite army 220–1 Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen 132 James VI of Scotland and I of England, King 222 Japan 20 Jerusalem 74, 93 see also Western Wall jihadist organizations 18, 51, 79, 101, 114, 115 see also Islam; Islamic State (IS); terrorism Jinnah, Muhammad Ali 125 Jones, Reece 124, 133 Jordan 76, 91–2, 106–7 Journal of Housing and the Built Environment 175 Judt, Tony 197 Juncker, Jean-Claude 197 Jung, Carl 186 K Karachi Agreement (1949) 142 Kashmir 141, 142, 143 Kassem, Suzy 95 Kenya 159, 165 Khan, Abdur Rahman 143 Khan, Humayun 61 Khan, Khizr and Ghazala 61 Khatun, Felani 124 Klein, Horst 186 Kohl, Helmut 188 Koran 113, 116 Kornbluth, David 77, 79, 84 Krenz, Egon 188 Kshatriyas 146 Kurdistan/Kurds 110–11 Kuwait 2, 106, 109–10 L Labour Party, UK 233 Lagos, Nigeria 174 Lambert, Charles 205–6 Land and Maritime Boundary dispute 164–5, 167 Latin America 174 see also Mexico Latvia 2, 198 Le Guin, Ursula K. 119 Le Monde newspaper 205 Le Pen, Marine 211 Lebanon 42, 91 Liberia 166 Libya 101, 106 Lincoln, Abraham 65 Lithuania 2, 198 Louisiana Purchase 43 Lu Wei 32–3 M Macedonia 2, 200 Machel, Graça 173 Malik, Tashfeen 51 Manchuria 13–14, 17 Manusmriti 145–6 Mao Zedong 15, 18, 20–1 Marshall Plan 250 Mauritania 156 Maximus, General Magnus 219–20 McCain, John 61 Melilla 198–199 Merkel, Angela 192, 207, 210, 211 Mexican–American War 43, 45 Mexican Repatriation 46 Mexico 3, 43–54 Middle East Arab minority groups 110–11, 116 attitude to Palestine 91–2 barrier building 99–100, 106–10 civil wars 104–5, 106–7, 108, 198 defensive city walls 99–100 development reports 112–13, 114–15 education 115 Green Zone, Baghdad 100–1 ijtihad 113 refugees 198 religious division 102–6, 107–8, 109, 115–16 terrorist threat 99–101, 103–4 ‘Three Deficits’ 112–13 uniting Arabia 114–17 see also individual countries by name migration see immigration Mimroth, P.
The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World (Hardback) - Common by Alan Greenspan
"Robert Solow", addicted to oil, air freight, airline deregulation, Albert Einstein, asset-backed security, bank run, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, business cycle, business process, buy and hold, call centre, capital controls, central bank independence, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, Corn Laws, corporate governance, corporate raider, correlation coefficient, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crony capitalism, cuban missile crisis, currency peg, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, double entry bookkeeping, equity premium, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, financial innovation, financial intermediation, full employment, Gini coefficient, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, income per capita, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, land reform, Long Term Capital Management, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, market bubble, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Myron Scholes, Nelson Mandela, new economy, North Sea oil, oil shock, open economy, Pearl River Delta, pets.com, Potemkin village, price mechanism, price stability, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, random walk, reserve currency, Right to Buy, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, short selling, Silicon Valley, special economic zone, stocks for the long run, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, trade route, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, urban renewal, working-age population, Y2K, zero-sum game
More ebooks visit: http://www.ccebook.cn ccebook-orginal english ebooks This file was collected by ccebook.cn form the internet, the author keeps the copyright. THE CHOICES THAT A W A I T C H I N A I had grown quite fond of Zhu and was saddened to realize that we were unlikely to meet again. We'd become friends when he was vice premier and head of China's central bank, and I had followed his career closely He was the intellectual heir of Deng Xiaoping, the great economic reformer who had brought China from the age of the bicycle to the age of the motor vehicle and all that that implies. Unlike Deng, who had a broad political base, Zhu was a technician; his influence, as best I can judge, rested on deep support from Jiang Zemin, China's president from 1993 to 2003 and Party leader from 1989 to 2002. It was Zhu who had brought to realization many of the sweeping institutional reforms that Deng had initiated.
Marx's economic model in practice—in the USSR and elsewhere—could not produce wealth or justice, as is now generally recognized. The rationale for collective ownership failed. Socialists in the West, adjusting to the failure of Marxist economics, have redefined socialism to no longer require that all the means of production be owned by the state. Some simply advocate government regulation rather than state ownership to foster societal well-being. Deng Xiaoping, confronting Marx's fall from favor, bypassed Communist ideology and rested Party legitimacy on its ability to meet the material needs of over a billion people. He set in motion a process that led to an unprecedented near-eightfold increase in real per capita GDP, a fall in infant mortality, and greater life expectancy. But as many in the Party leadership 300 More ebooks visit: http://www.ccebook.cn ccebook-orginal english ebooks This file was collected by ccebook.cn form the internet, the author keeps the copyright.
I cannot believe that the Party is unaware 301 More ebooks visit: http://www.ccebook.cn ccebook-orginal english ebooks This file was collected by ccebook.cn form the internet, the author keeps the copyright. THE AGE OF T U R B U L E N C E that affluence and recent education initiatives are moving China toward a far less authoritarian regime. Today, President Hu appears to wield less political power than did Jiang Zemin, and he less than Deng Xiaoping. And Deng far less than Mao. At the end of this road of ever-lessening power is the democratic welfare state of Western Europe. Along that way are the many hurdles that still separate China from "developed economy" status, Deng's avowed goal. Many of the huge challenges China's reformers face are well known: the reactionary old guard; the vast rural population that is to date barely sharing in the boom and is with modest exceptions forbidden to migrate to cities; the huge remaining chunks of the Soviet-style command economy, including still-bloated, inefficient state-owned enterprises; the largely struggling banking system that serves those enterprises; the lack of modern financial and accounting expertise; corruption, the almost necessary by-product of any pyramidal power structure based on discretion; and finally, lack of political freedom, which may not be needed for markets to function in the short run, but is an important safety valve for public distress about injustice and inequity.
The Collapse: The Accidental Opening of the Berlin Wall by Mary Elise Sarotte
anti-communist, Berlin Wall, conceptual framework, Deng Xiaoping, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, hindsight bias, Mikhail Gorbachev, open borders, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, urban decay, éminence grise
While such violence might have been a sensible response early on (from the point of view of the regime) when protests were small and could be crushed in secrecy, such violence became a much riskier strategy once the ranks of protestors swelled and the possibilities for information leaking out multiplied. Once that happened, the use of violence carried added costs that ultimately served to undermine the regime.39 A comparison with the People’s Republic of China is useful in illuminating this point, the numerous differences between China and East Germany notwithstanding. Unlike Honecker, Deng Xiaoping, the de facto leader in Beijing in 1989, appears to have understood this dynamic—that violence cannot easily be scaled up, that bloodshed on a large scale carries added costs—and adjusted his course accordingly. Deng authorized the bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square in June 1989 in order to keep the party’s control over the country intact in the short term, but he realized that he needed a different strategy to succeed in the long term.
November 1989 Berliner Bürger zu den Grenzübergängen eilten, weil ein Politbüromitglied sie falsch informiert hatte, waren wir einer bürgerkriegsähnlichen Auseinandersetzung näher als das viele heute wahrhaben wollen”; (2) “Am Abend des 9. November und im Verlaufe des 10. November bestand die reale Gefahr einer militärischen Eskalation, in die auch die Großmächte hätten hineingezogen werden können.” 39. On the immense size of the Leipzig protest in particular, see Opp, Voss, and Gern, Die volkseigene Revolution, 47. 40. For more on this story, see Sarotte, “China’s Fear of Contagion,” and Ezra F. Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2011), 602–694. 41. In hindsight, it is surprising that he did not use even more violence. Honecker’s plans for the Oct. 16 march in Leipzig—an aerial assault—suggest that he was moving in that direction. The fact that he had not used such measures already seems to have resulted from a combination of factors: the collapse of cooperation among the member states of the Warsaw Pact appears to have made him uncertain, rightly, about how much support from his allies he would have; and, in addition, there was the awkward need to extract support from Bonn, and to regard its wishes for a lessening of violence in return.
See also Border guards/soldiers Czechoslovakia, 110, 112, 172 number of secret police in, 9 refugee crisis in, 27–30, 94–95 refugee crisis in, and abandoned cars, 31, 31 (photo) refugee crisis in, and threat to close border, 101, 105–106 refugee crisis in, and travel law, draft of, 99–101 refugee crisis in, as inspiration for Czech opposition, 105–106 resumption of travel under old rules in, 94 Daily Telegraph, 118 Death strip, 11 (photo) Defense Ministry, 10 Democratic Awakening, 147, 150 Demonstrations. See Protests/demonstrations Deng Xiaoping, and Honecker, comparison between, 178–179 Dickel, Friedrich, 51 and emigration, and hole variant, 103 and Honecker, coup against, 78 plans/preparations for Leipzig ring road march and, 54 and travel law, draft of, 93, 100, 105–106 Dictators, disobedience by subordinates of, xxv Die Zeit, 13 Dissidents/activists and Berlin Wall opening, displeasure with, 153 churches as havens/shelters for, 9 election 1990 and, 172 Gethsemane Church and, 85–87 vs.
Seasteading: How Floating Nations Will Restore the Environment, Enrich the Poor, Cure the Sick, and Liberate Humanity From Politicians by Joe Quirk, Patri Friedman
3D printing, access to a mobile phone, addicted to oil, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, business climate, business cycle, business process, California gold rush, Celtic Tiger, Charles Lindbergh, clean water, Colonization of Mars, Dean Kamen, Deng Xiaoping, drone strike, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, failed state, financial intermediation, Gini coefficient, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Kickstarter, low skilled workers, Machinery of Freedom by David Friedman, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, minimum wage unemployment, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, offshore financial centre, open borders, paypal mafia, peak oil, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, price stability, profit motive, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, special economic zone, standardized shipping container, stem cell, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, undersea cable, young professional
The sudden wealth attracted attention, the plan was disclosed, and neighbors accused the Xiaogang villagers of “digging up the cornerstone of socialism.” The heads of the eighteen families awaited their execution. By this time, however, Mao had died, in 1976, and the new leader, Deng Xiaoping, received the news of this curious experiment in outlawry. “This is how the entire new Chinese economy started,” explains Zhai. “They divided this property, which was supposed to belong to the state. But the party official who discovered this illegal activity did not arrest them. He wrote a secret report to Deng Xiaoping, who ordered that the village be observed. They spread this policy all around the country and changed the entire ecosystem for one billion farmers. This is a very good example of how a small experiment can lead to a great change in a larger country.”
One of the most liberal market economies in the world nestled aside the most hard-line Communist nation. Next to the behemoth, Hong Kong seemed fragile as a butterfly. So why didn’t the behemoth invade, squash the bug, and confiscate its wealth? Remember this answer the next time somebody predicts large nations will invade seasteads. China didn’t attack. It learned and adapted. Chinese leaders were so impressed by the Hong Kong experiment, leader Deng Xiaoping announced China’s new “open door” policy in December 1978. In 1980 it designated four “special economic zones,” or SEZs, which curled along the crescent of China coastline. The first was Shenzhen, established just across the river from Hong Kong, followed quickly by Zhuhai, Shantou, and Xiamen. Sudden growth in these SEZs was so startling, only four years later, former Communist strongmen designated fourteen coastal cities to be SEZs, triggering the construction of modern container ports, which would come in handy as China began to produce and export the goods that drove a cornucopia of consumer goods for the West.
Glenn, 239 Cold War, 180 Coleridge, Samuel Taylor, 72 Collier, Paul, 295 Columbus, Christopher, 289–90 Committee to Protect Journalists, 29 Communism, 186, 191, 208 Complete Idiot’s Guide to Global Economics, The (Rehmke), 280–81 Conscious Capitalists and Capitalism, 196–97 Conservation International, 127, 128 contiguous zone, 13 Cook Islands, 104 corals and coral reefs, 49, 51, 108, 170, 179 Corinth, 281 Coriolis force, 159 corn, 134 in fish pellets, 116 low in lysine, 78 as pollutant, 93 slow growth of, 76 subject to blight, 80 subsidies for, 70, 93 Costa Rica: aquaculture in, 71, 80, 85, 86, 93 medical tourism in, 224 Crain’s Chicago Business, 243 Critical Path (Fuller), 24 Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), 16 cruise ships: desalination on, 260 employment on, 16–17, 271–72 as floating cities, 11–17 as health care providers, 221–23 laws governing, 13–15, 264 profitability of, 12 and waste disposal, 259 see also specific ships Crystal Serenity (cruise ship), 16 Cullom, Philip, 136 Cultivated Seaweeds for Food Project, 72, 80–81 Curetalk (online forum), 241 cyanobacteria, 73 cyclicity, 122 Czapiewska, Karina: on Blue Revolution, 53–56 on cities, 45, 46–49, 48–49, 259 on seasteading, 50, 57–58 Dai-Ichi National Bank, 173 Daily Mail, 16 Darwin, Charles, 137 dead zones, 69, 74, 83–84, 134, 139 Deep Ecology, 123 Deep Space Industries, 160 Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, 151 deforestation, 76 de Graaf, Rutger: on Blue Revolution, 53–56 on cities as parasites, 47–50 on floating cities, 42–57 on flood control, 41 on peak phosphate, 51–52 on snap-on modules, 43 Deist, Charlie, 123 Delft, 42 Deloitte Management Consulting, 227, 229 DeltaSync: on aquaculture, 47–48, 49, 126 on cyclicity, 122 designs and constructs Floating Pavilion, 44–45 mission of, 42, 180, 259 partners with Waterstudio, 45–46 seastead feasibility project, 57–59 Demick, Barbara, 186 democracy, 8, 37, 208 see also government and governance Deng Xiaoping, 190, 215 desalination, 260 Diamandis, Peter, 65, 242 Diamond, Jared, 125, 289 diesel fuel, 117, 137, 268 DigInfo (online video news site), 174 dikes, 41, 46 Dini, Enrico, 170 Discovery Channel, 46 diving industry, 51 DNA, 52 Dominican Republic, 187 Dove soap, 135 drifter cages, 117–19 drones, 238 Drucker, Peter, 78 Duarte, Carlos M., 115 Durant, Will, 289 Dura Vermeer, 45 Dutch, see Netherlands Dutch Docklands, 25, 26 “Dynamic Geography” (essay), 9 ear canal bone anchor, 242 eBay, 28 EconLog (blog), 299 “Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?”
The Evolution of Everything: How New Ideas Emerge by Matt Ridley
"Robert Solow", affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, AltaVista, altcoin, anthropic principle, anti-communist, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Columbian Exchange, computer age, Corn Laws, cosmological constant, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of DNA, Donald Davies, double helix, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, endogenous growth, epigenetics, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, falling living standards, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, George Santayana, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, hydraulic fracturing, imperial preference, income per capita, indoor plumbing, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, land reform, Lao Tzu, long peace, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, Necker cube, obamacare, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, price mechanism, profit motive, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Feynman, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, smart contracts, South Sea Bubble, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, twin studies, uber lyft, women in the workforce
He quickly recognised, thanks to his military experience, that (in the words of the anthropologist Susan Greenhalgh) ‘The one-child-for-all policy both assumed and required the use of big-push, top–down approaches in the social domain.’ Song was proposing social engineering in the most literal sense. Vice-Premier Wang Zhen was an immediate convert on reading Song’s report, and put it in front of Chen Yun and Hu Yaobang, senior lieutenants of Deng Xiaoping himself. Deng apparently liked the fact that Song argued that Chinese poverty was caused by overpopulation, not economic mismanagement, and was bamboozled by the mathematics into not questioning his assumptions. At a conference in Chengdu in December 1979 Song silenced critics who were worried about the humanitarian consequences, and persuaded the party to accept his calculation that China needed to reduce its population by about one-third by 2080 in order to live within its ecological means.
As Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, has argued in his book The Churchill Factor: How One Man Made History, it is almost impossible to conceive of any other British politician close to power in May 1940 who would have chosen not to negotiate with Hitler in search of peace, however humiliating. Nobody else in the War Cabinet had the courage, the insanity, the sheer effrontery to defy the inevitable and fight on. As Johnson makes the case, this really is a sure example of one person changing history. So is history driven by great men? The emergent nature of China’s reform I am not so sure. Consider the reform of China’s economy that began under Deng Xiaoping in 1978, leading to an economic flowering that raised half a billion people out of poverty. Plainly, Deng had a great impact on history and was in that sense a ‘Great Man’. But if you examine closely what happened in China in 1978, it was a more evolutionary story than is usually assumed. It all began in the countryside, with the ‘privatisation’ of collective farms to allow individual ownership of land and of harvests.
Incentivised by the knowledge that they could profit from their work, in the first year they grew more food than the land had produced in the previous five years combined. The local party chief soon grew suspicious of all this work and this bountiful harvest, and sent for Yen, who faced imprisonment or worse. But during the interrogation the regional party chief intervened to save Yen, and recommended that the Xiaogang experiment be copied elsewhere. This was the proposal that eventually reached Deng Xiaoping’s desk. He chose not to stand in the way, that was all. But it was not until 1982 that the party officially recognised that family farms could be allowed – by which time they were everywhere. Farming was rapidly transformed by the incentives of private ownership; industry soon followed. A less pragmatically Marxist version of Deng might have delayed the reform, but surely one day it would have come.
A Brief History of Neoliberalism by David Harvey
affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, business climate, business cycle, capital controls, centre right, collective bargaining, creative destruction, crony capitalism, debt deflation, declining real wages, deglobalization, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, financial intermediation, financial repression, full employment, George Gilder, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, labour market flexibility, land tenure, late capitalism, Long Term Capital Management, low-wage service sector, manufacturing employment, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, means of production, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Mont Pelerin Society, mortgage tax deduction, neoliberal agenda, new economy, Pearl River Delta, phenotype, Ponzi scheme, price mechanism, race to the bottom, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, special economic zone, structural adjustment programs, the built environment, The Chicago School, transaction costs, union organizing, urban renewal, urban sprawl, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent
Figures 1.2, 1.5 and 6.2 reprinted by permission of the publisher from Capital Resurgent: Roots of the Neoliberal Revolution by Gérard Duménil and Dominique Lévy, translated by Derek Jeffers, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, Copyright © 2004 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. Figure 4.2 is reproduced courtesy Blackwell Publishing from S. Corbridge, Debt and Development, 1993. Introduction Future historians may well look upon the years 1978–80 as a revolutionary turning-point in the world’s social and economic history. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping took the first momentous steps towards the liberalization of a communist-ruled economy in a country that accounted for a fifth of the world’s population. The path that Deng defined was to transform China in two decades from a closed backwater to an open centre of capitalist dynamism with sustained growth rates unparalleled in human history. On the other side of the Pacific, and in quite different circumstances, a relatively obscure (but now renowned) figure named Paul Volcker took command at the US Federal Reserve in July 1979, and within a few months dramatically changed monetary policy.
It has been part of the genius of neoliberal theory to provide a benevolent mask full of wonderful-sounding words like freedom, liberty, choice, and rights, to hide the grim realities of the restoration or reconstitution of naked class power, locally as well as transnationally, but most particularly in the main financial centres of global capitalism. 5 Neoliberalism ‘with Chinese Characteristics’ In December 1978, faced with the dual difficulties of political uncertainty in the wake of Mao’s death in 1976 and several years of economic stagnation, the Chinese leadership under Deng Xiaoping announced a programme of economic reform. We may never know for sure whether Deng was all along a secret ‘capitalist roader’ (as Mao had claimed during the Cultural Revolution) or whether the reforms were simply a desperate move to ensure China’s economic security and bolster its prestige in the face of the rising tide of capitalist development in the rest of East and South-East Asia. The reforms just happened to coincide—and it is very hard to consider this as anything other than a conjunctural accident of world-historical significance—with the turn to neoliberal solutions in Britain and the United States.
M. 99–100 De la Rua, F. 105 debt of developing countries 9, 29, 162, 193 neoliberal state 73–5 uneven development and crises 94–6, 99, 104, 108 decadence of individualism 85–6 decolonization 55–6 deficit financing 188 deflation 162, 194–5 deindustrialization 26, 53, 59 Dembour, M.-B. 220 democracy demand for 110 excess of 184 as luxury 66 meaning of 206 Democrats (US) 49, 51 consent, construction of 51, 53–4, 62–3 uneven development 92, 93, 103, 110 see also Clinton; Roosevelt Deng Xiaoping 1–2, 120–5 passim, 135–6, 168 deregulation 3, 22, 26, 65, 67, 114, 161 derivative rights 182 Derthick, M. 219 devaluation 103, 105, 135 developing countries 71–4 see also Africa; Asia; debt; inequalities; Latin America; uneven development Dicken, P. 91, 102, 109, 131, 216, 219 dignity, human 5 see also freedom dirigisme 10 disposable commodity, labour as 70, 153, 157, 164, 167–71 dispossession see accumulation dissident movements 5 see also student movements Dongguan 132, 147, 149 Duhalde, E. 105–6 Duménil, G. 207, 213, 219–20 freedom concept 16–17, 18, 24, 26, 30, 33, 209 freedom’s prospect 191, 222 Eagleton, T. 198 earnings see income/wages East Asia 2 and China 122, 141 consent, construction of 59 freedom concept 10, 11, 23, 35 freedom’s prospect 190, 193–4, 197, 199, 206 neoliberal state 66, 72, 85 neoliberalism on trial 154, 156, 169 uneven development 87–94 passim, 96, 97, 106–12, 115, 116, 118 see also China; Hong Kong; Japan; South East Asia; South Korea; Taiwan East and Central Europe 5, 17, 71 neoliberalism on trial 154, 170 uneven development 94, 95, 117 ecosystems see commons Ecuador 95 Edsall, T. 48, 49, 51, 54–5, 211 Edwards, M. 220 egalitarianism 203–4 Eley, G. 208 elites and restoration of power China 123, 145 consent, construction of 39, 42–5, 51, 52 freedom concept 15–19, 23, 26, 29–30, 31–8 freedom’s prospect 197, 203–4 neoliberal state 66, 69, 84 neoliberalism on trial 152, 153, 156 uneven development 90–3, 96–9, 103–6, 108, 112, 114, 117, 119 see also financial system ‘embedded liberalism’ 11–12 employment see labour Enron 32, 77, 162 entrepreneurialism 23, 31 environment see commons equality 120 see also inequalities ERM 98 ethnicity 85 Europe 109, 157 European Union 79, 89, 91–2, 93, 114–15 freedom concept 11–15, 17, 19, 24, 27–8 freedom’s prospect 193–4, 200, 206 uneven development 89, 91–2, 93, 114 see also Britain; East and Central Europe; France; Germany; Italy; Sweden Evans, P. 212 excess capacity 194 exchange as ethic 3, 13 exchange rates 10, 12, 123–4, 141 exploitation of natural resources 8–9, 159, 164, 174–5 export-led growth 107 China 128, 130, 135–7 see also East Asia; FDI; market economy; South East Asia failure of neoliberalism 154–6 see also neoliberalism on trial Falklands/Malvinas war 79, 86 Falwell, J. 49 Farah, J. 219 FDI (foreign direct investment) 6, 7, 23, 28–30 China 21, 123, 125, 126, 129, 133–4, 141, 147 decline 190, 191 uneven development 90–4 passim, 98, 100, 101, 103, 105, 109, 117–18 see also debt; financial system Federal Reserve (US) see Volcker financial system and power 40, 62 China and state-owned banks 123, 125, 126, 129, 133–4, 141, 147 crises 12, 44–8, 68, 189, 193–4 uneven development 94–7, 104–5 see also debt; deflation; inflation decline 190 financialization 161–2 neoliberal state 71–5, 78, 80 neoliberalism on trial 157, 158, 161–2 uneven development 88–93, 94–9, 104–5, 108, 114, 119 see also corporations; currency; elites; FDI; IMF; income; Treasury; World Bank Fisher, W. 222 Fishman, T. 216 ‘flexible accumulation’ 75–6 flexible labour 100, 112 force see coercion/force Ford, G. 46 foreign direct investment see FDI Forero, J. 214, 217 Fortune 500 17, 44 four modernizations (China) 120 Fourcade-Gourinchas, M. 208, 211 Fox, V. 98 France 41, 157, 200 freedom concept 5, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 24, 27 neoliberal state 66, 84, 85 uneven development 91, 115, 117 Frank, T. 172, 210, 211, 213 free trade/market see market economy freedom, concept of 5–38, 207–9 as catchword 39, 41–2 class power 31–6 definitions 36–7 divergent concepts 183–4 four cardinal 183, 206 neoliberal theory, rise of 19–31 neoliberal turn, reasons for 9–19 freedom’s prospect 36–8, 186–206, 221–2 end to neoliberalism, possible 188–98 neoliberalism, alternatives to 198–206 Freeman, J. 46 French, H. 216 Friedman, M. 8, 20, 22, 44 future see freedom’s prospect G7/G8 countries 33, 66, 94 ‘Gang of Four’ see Hong Kong; Singapore; South Korea; Taiwan GATT 100 General Motors 130, 134, 135, 157 Geneva Conventions 6, 198 George, S. 207, 222 Germany 66, 87, 91, 157 West 24, 41, 88–9, 90 Gilder, G. 54 Gill, L. 220, 222 Gills, B. 221 Gindin, S. 28, 208, 219 Giuliani, R. 48, 100 global warming 172, 173, 174 globalization 70, 80, 159, 163 see also market economy; WTO Glynn, A. 208 Goldwater, B. 2 Gowan, P. 209, 213 Gramsci, A. 39, 78 Gray, J. 152–3 Guangdong 121, 128, 135, 136, 137 Haggard, S. 211 Hainan Island 131 Hale, D. and L. 215, 216 Hall, P. 211 Hall, S. 211 Harris, P. 220 Harrison, J. 208 Hart-Landsberg, M. 215, 217 Harvey, D. 211, 212, 213, 219, 221, 222 freedom concept 14, 207, 209 Hayek, F. von 20, 21, 22, 37, 40, 57 Hayter, T. 211 health, poor 154 Healy, D. 212 hedging 97–8 hegemony see power Held, D. 222 Henderson, J. 72, 213 Henwood, D. 209 Hofstadter, R. 82–3 Holloway, J. 219 Hong Kong 2, 89, 96, 157 and China 121, 123, 128, 130, 132, 136, 138, 141, 147 Hout, T. 216 Huang, Y. 124, 215 Huawei 134–5 Hulme, D. 220 human rights see rights hyper-inflation 193 Hyundai 107, 111 IBM 13, 146 ideologies see neoliberalism; values illiteracy 156 IMF (International Monetary Fund) 3 China 122, 141 consent, construction of 40, 54, 58 freedom concept 8, 10, 12, 24, 30 freedom’s prospect 185, 189, 201, 205 neoliberal state 69, 72, 73, 75 neoliberalism on trial 152, 154, 162–3, 175, 182 uneven development 92–9 passim, 103, 105–6, 111, 116–18 imperialism see neocolonialism imports 139–40 cheap 101 substitution 8, 98 income/wages China 126–7, 136, 138, 143–4, 148 falling 18 individual 176–7 inequalities 15–19, 88, 92, 100 neoliberalism on trial 154, 156 policies 12 and productivity 25 uneven development 88, 92, 100, 114 India 9, 134 freedom’s prospect 186, 194, 202, 206 neoliberal state 76, 85 neoliberalism on trial 154, 156, 174 individualism 23, 42, 57 neoliberal state 65–6, 79–8, 82, 85–6 see also freedom Indonesia 199 and China 138, 139 freedom concept 31–2, 34 neoliberal state 76, 85 neoliberalism on trial 153, 163, 167, 168, 175, 178 uneven development 89, 91, 96–7, 108–9, 117, 118 inequalities China 142–51 income 15–19, 88, 92, 100 increased 89–90, 118 see also class; developing countries; power; uneven development inflation 1, 135 consent, construction of 51, 59 control as only success 156 freedom concept 12, 14, 22, 23–5 freedom’s prospect 189, 193 stagflation 12, 22, 23, 24–5, 57 uneven development 88, 93, 100 informal economy 103 information technology 3–4, 34, 157, 159 innovation see technology, new Institute of Economic Affairs (UK) 22, 57 institutions 40, 64, 75 see also IMF; World Bank; WTO intellectual property rights 64, 68, 160 interest rates 23–4, 51, 59, 99, 162 international agreements 6, 92, 198 see also IMF; WTO intervention 20–1, 79 lack of 69 see also pre-emptive action investment see FDI Iran 28, 85, 139, 206 Iraq 179–80, 181, 204 reconstruction 184 War 6–7, 9, 35, 39, 153, 160, 184, 197 Isaacs, W. 193 Islam 83, 186 see also Middle East Israel 12 Italy 66, 96 freedom concept 11, 12, 13, 15 Japan 2, 59, 156 and China 123, 134, 136, 138–40, 142 freedom concept 10, 11, 23 freedom’s prospect 190, 193 neoliberal state 66, 85 uneven development 87–94 passim, 107 Jensen, D. 186 Jessop, B. 211 Jevons, W.
The Looting Machine: Warlords, Oligarchs, Corporations, Smugglers, and the Theft of Africa's Wealth by Tom Burgis
Airbus A320, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, BRICs, British Empire, central bank independence, clean water, colonial rule, corporate social responsibility, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, F. W. de Klerk, Gini coefficient, Livingstone, I presume, McMansion, megacity, Nelson Mandela, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, purchasing power parity, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, structural adjustment programs, trade route, transfer pricing, upwardly mobile, urban planning, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game
By some accounts he worked as an asset for Chinese intelligence in the 1990s within the inner circle of Cambodia’s Communist ruler, Hun Sen, helping to repair relations between him and Beijing, which had supported the man Hun Sen overthrew, the genocidal tyrant Pol Pot. What is clear is that Pa mastered what many of his colleagues in the Chinese security services also attempted: translating connections made in the world of espionage into business opportunities. When Deng Xiaoping ousted the Maoists and began reforming China’s economy in 1978, he encouraged the military to bring in its own revenues through business, freeing up the national budget to fund development projects. By the end of the following decade the PLA’s network of twenty thousand companies had interests ranging from pharmaceuticals to manufacturing weapons and smuggling commodities. ‘The profits were meant to fund improved living conditions for ordinary soldiers,’ writes Richard McGregor, a former Financial Times bureau chief in Beijing.7 ‘In reality, much of the money went into the pockets of venal generals and their relatives and cronies.’
The details of her past are as fragmented as Pa’s, and, as with Pa, it is hard to differentiate between genuine connections and an ability to broadcast an impressive aura of guanxi that may overstate the extent of their relationships. Company filings in Hong Kong show no record of any business ventures in which Lo participated before her alliance with Pa. Mahmoud Thiam, the Guinean minister who would work with Lo and Pa years later, was one of several people who heard that she used to be a translator for Deng Xiaoping.20 Between them, Pa and Lo had ‘extensive business connections in Africa and South America’ by the time they came together, according to a court filing years later.21 It was Lo who signed the Venezuela agreement. When she appeared with Hugo Chávez on Aló Presidente, his weekly broadcast, to trumpet the deal, the Venezuelan president told the nation that his guest came from a prestigious military family and was the daughter of a general.22 Lo exudes an authority that many foreigners who have met her have found hard to decode.
Lo derived a portion of her guanxi from her marriage.24 Her husband, Wang Xiangfei, is a serious businessman with a background in finance who has sat in some of China’s most prestigious boardrooms. He studied economics at the elite Renmin University in Beijing and became an associate professor of finance there. When his wife and Sam Pa began to craft their business venture in 2002, Wang had already spent two decades at China Everbright, an important state-owned financial conglomerate. Wang joined Everbright in 1983, the year it was founded as an early embodiment of Deng Xiaoping’s desire for China to take its place on the international commercial stage. It grew to hold assets worth hundreds of billions of dollars, including its own bank. Wang served both at the parent group in China and at its subsidiaries in Hong Kong, holding a succession of senior posts. China Everbright’s management reports directly to the State Council, the highest organ of the Chinese government and the most powerful body in the land after the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party, and its executives move in the upper echelons of China’s interlocking elites.
Order Without Design: How Markets Shape Cities by Alain Bertaud
autonomous vehicles, call centre, colonial rule, congestion charging, creative destruction, cross-subsidies, Deng Xiaoping, discounted cash flows, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, extreme commuting, garden city movement, Google Earth, Jane Jacobs, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, land tenure, manufacturing employment, market design, market fragmentation, megacity, new economy, New Urbanism, openstreetmap, Pearl River Delta, price mechanism, rent control, Right to Buy, Ronald Coase, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, special economic zone, the built environment, trade route, transaction costs, transit-oriented development, trickle-down economics, urban planning, urban sprawl, zero-sum game
The system allocating resources in the former Soviet Union was so inefficient that its economy collapsed suddenly. There was not much time to ensure a smooth transition from one system to another. It resulted in a rapid and opaque privatization of many state enterprises that produced oligopolies that only remotely resemble markets. Some Russian cities have real land market; in others the system of land allocation is less clear. Under Deng Xiaoping, China chose a different path. It gradually reformed its system until it made a progressive, orderly transition from a command to a market economy. However, the shift of the system in China was not due to an ideological conversion. As Ronald Coase and Ning Wang explained in their book on China’s reform, “China became capitalist while it was trying to modernize socialism.”5 Indeed, the Chinese government allowed cities to experiment with small-scale labor and land market liberalization before expanding successful experiments to the entire country.
The current poor performance of public infrastructure—roads, transport, sewer, drainage, and power—in major Indian cities is in part the result of misguided national spatial policy conducted over the past 50 years. If planners are unable to control the growth rate of cities, how can we explain the successful growth of entirely planned cities like St. Petersburg; Brasília, Brazil; or Shenzhen, created ex nihilo by powerful rulers as diverse as Peter the Great, Juscelino Kubitschek, and Deng Xiaoping? These planned cities became large and successful as the result of two major factors: • First, each city’s location was selected because of a geopolitical necessity6 and not because of an abstract planning concept. • Second, each city had the strong political and financial support of a powerful ruler of a very large country. This support allowed these cities to sink large amounts of money into infrastructure investment without having to borrow and tax their own initially fledgling economies.
Industrial Policy Resolution of the Government of India adopted in 1956 under the provisions of the Industrial Development and Regulation Act, 1951. 6. St. Petersburg was created by Peter the Great to open a port toward Western Europe in order to gain new technology through trade and cultural contact. Brasília, created by President Juscelino Kubitschek of Brazil, was part of an effort to develop the center of the country and to make the capital more politically independent from the large cities on the coast. Deng Xiaoping’s main objective in creating Shenzhen was to graft and test within a limited perimeter some of the market institutions and technical knowhow used across the border by his Chinese compatriots in Hong Kong. 7. In Russian: “Gosudarstvennaya Planovaya Comissiya” [State Planning Committee], in charge of the Soviet economy. 8. Sam Staley and Adrian Moore, Mobility First (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2009). 9.
Gorbachev by William Taubman
active measures, affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, card file, conceptual framework, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, haute couture, indoor plumbing, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, Neil Kinnock, Potemkin village, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Saturday Night Live, Stanislav Petrov, trade liberalization, young professional
Oldenbourg Verlag, 1998), 281. 47 Savranskaya, Blanton, and Zubok, Masterpieces of History, 465–66; Küsters and Hofmann, Deutsche Einheit, 283. 48 Savranskaya, Blanton, and Zubok, Masterpieces of History, 465–66; Hannes Adomeit, Imperial Overstretch: Germany in Soviet Policy from Stalin to Gorbachev (Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 1998), 398–99. 49 Gorbachev, Sobranie sochinenii, 14:600, n. 362; Küsters and Hofmann, Deutsche Einheit, 279. 50 Adomeit, Imperial Overstretch, 396, 399; Gorbachev, Zhizn’, 2:161; Savranskaya, Blanton, and Zubok, Masterpieces of History, 475. 51 Bozo, Mitterrand, 62–65. 52 Savranskaya, Blanton, and Zubok, Masterpieces of History, 490–91; Gorbachev, Sobranie sochinenii, 15:529, n. 86; Gorbachev, Zhizn’, 2:93. 53 Kirill Lavrov, “No byt’ zhivym, zhivim i tol’ko . . . ,” in Karagez’ian and Poliakov, Gorbachev v zhizni, 231. 54 Ezra Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2011), 616–32. 55 See excerpts from transcripts of Gorbachev-Deng and Gorbachev-Zhao talks, in Gorbachev, Sobranie sochinenii, 14:203–5; and in Gorbachev, Zhizn’, 2:435–47. 56 Cited in Vogel, Deng Xiaoping, 423. 57 Shakhnazarov notes for Gorbachev prior to October 6, 1988, Politburo meeting, in Vladislav Zubok, “New Evidence on the ‘Soviet Factor’ in the Peaceful Revolutions of 1989,” Cold War International History Project Bulletin, no. 12/13 (Fall/Winter 2001): 15. 58 Chernyaev notes on January 21, 1989, Politburo session, ibid., 16–17. 59 A third report on Eastern Europe, by the Foreign Ministry, consisted mostly of boilerplate, confirming that the ministry’s role in Eastern Europe was subsidiary to that of the Soviet party’s Central Committee.
When Gorbachev aide Shakhnazarov later asked Chief of the General Staff Sergei Akhromeyev why the country needed so many weapons, Akhromeyev answered, “Because through enormous sacrifice we have created first-class plants that are no worse than what the Americans have. What are we going to do, tell them to stop working and make pots and pans instead? That’s simply utopian.”42 What about economic reforms of the sort the Chinese carried out after Mao Zedong died in 1976? Deng Xiaoping’s reforms freed peasants from collectives and spurred them to produce for the market as well as for themselves. The result was an agricultural boom that in turn fueled miraculous economic growth. The Chinese postponed political reforms and to this day are still resisting democratization and glasnost. Could Gorbachev have tried the Chinese road? He, too, began with the economy. But Soviet farmers, brutalized by Stalin’s decades-long war against the peasantry, couldn’t have matched the Chinese agricultural revival.
I see that you are keeping your promises.” It was no wonder Gorbachev considered his talks with Mitterrand “a breakthrough,” demonstrating that “at last Western leaders believed in perestroika.”52 GORBACHEV’S NEXT VISIT was to China, from May 15 through 18. What happened there in Tiananmen Square and his own reaction to it shaped his approach to turmoil he faced in Eastern Europe. China’s paramount leader, the octogenarian Deng Xiaoping, was also a reformer. But whereas Gorbachev concluded that economic reform was impossible without democratization and political pluralism, Deng was proceeding to introduce a market economy, while jealously guarding the party’s monopoly of political power. In both countries the reforms unleashed pressure from below for more radical change. The day that Gorbachev arrived in Beijing, thousands of students were occupying Tiananmen Square.
Power Hungry: The Myths of "Green" Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future by Robert Bryce
addicted to oil, Bernie Madoff, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, cleantech, collateralized debt obligation, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Menlo Park, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks
Imports by Country of Origin,” http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_a.htm. 6 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2009_downloads/renewables_section_2009.pdf. 7 For the first ten months of 2009, OPEC production was about 28 million barrels per day. Global consumption is about 84 million barrels per day. See MEES.com, “OPEC Crude Oil Production,” n.d., http://www.mees.com/Energy_Tables/crude-oil.htm. 8 Wikipedia, “Deng Xiaoping,” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deng_Xiaoping. For Deng quote, see Farago, “Editorial: The Truth About Rare Earths and Hybrids.” 9 “Molycorp Minerals: Global Outlook,” n.d., http://www.molycorp.com/globaloutlook.asp. 10 Farago, “Editorial: The Truth About Rare Earths and Hybrids.” 11 Leo Lewis, “Crunch Looms for Green Technology as China Tightens Grip on Rare-Earth Metals,” Times (London), May 28, 2009, http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article6374603.ece. 12 Steve Gorman, “As Hybrid Cars Gobble Rare Metals, Shortage Looms,” Reuters, September 2, 2009, http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-BusinessofGreen/idUSTRE57U02B20090902; Keith Bradsher, “China Tightens Grip on Rare Minerals,” New York Times, September 1, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/business/global/01minerals.html?
These same neoconservatives hate OPEC—but OPEC only controls about one-third of world oil production.7 Now compare the diffused global oil market with the constricted market for the lanthanides—lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, dysprosium, neodymium, and the others. China controls—depending on whose numbers you believe—between 95 and 100 percent of the global market in those elements. The fact that China sits atop such favorable geology for mining the lanthanides is pure luck. But the Chinese are aiming to make the most of that luck. Deng Xiaoping, the former Communist Party boss, once said, “There is oil in the Middle East. There are rare earths in China. We must take full advantage of this resource.”8 China is doing just that. It has about 1,000 Ph.D.-level scientists working on technologies related to the mining and separation of rare earth elements as well as on ways to turn those elements into salable products.9 At the same time that China is increasing its knowledge base on rare earths, it is cutting its exports of those same materials.
Cuban, Mark Cubic Mile of Oil, A (Crane, Kinderman, and Malhotra) Curtis, John Curtiss, Peter S. Dams, dismantling of Danish Center for Political Studies (CEPOS) Danish Energy Agency Darley, Julian Darwin, Charles de Merode, Emmanuel De Nysschen, Johan de Soto, Hernando Death rates, energy poverty and Decarbonization trend Deffeyes, Kenneth deForest Ralph, H. Deforestation DeGette, Diana Democrats view of, toward nuclear power See also names of specific politicians Deng Xiaoping Denmark and carbon capture and sequestration carbon dioxide emissions of (fig.) and carbon intensity(fig.) coal consumption in (fig.) electricity rates in(fig.) energy consumption in (fig.) and energy intensity(fig.) myths involving and natural gas(fig.) and oil(fig.) and oil consumption and wind power (fig.) Desalinization, need for Desert Protective Council DeSoto Parish Developing countries and carbon dioxide emissions desire for electricity in See also specific countries Diesel demand, increase in Diesel engines(photo) (fig.)
The Edifice Complex: How the Rich and Powerful--And Their Architects--Shape the World by Deyan Sudjic
Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, call centre, colonial rule, Columbine, cuban missile crisis, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Frank Gehry, glass ceiling, Guggenheim Bilbao, haute couture, haute cuisine, megastructure, Mikhail Gorbachev, new economy, New Urbanism, oil shock, Peter Eisenman, Ronald Reagan, Socratic dialogue, urban planning, urban renewal, V2 rocket, Victor Gruen
It will be a colossus that takes the form of two leaning towers, seventy floors high, that prop each other up with links at top and bottom to form a gigantic Möbius strip, containing everything from studios to offices. An adjacent hotel block takes the form of an open chest of drawers. This is not just another tower; it has ambitions every bit as explicit as the Great Hall of the People to represent China’s place in the world, and its newfound might. In the years since Deng Xiaoping took the first steps toward unleashing China’s economic potential, Beijing has built a vast number of new buildings, many of them designed by foreign architects with international reputations. But with the exception of the Fragrant Hills Hotel, I. M. Pei’s fruitless attempt to show the land of his birth that modernity did not have to mean the destruction of Beijing’s extraordinary urban fabric, few have yet showed any real architectural ambition.
In stage two, useful for bringing troublesome discussions to a positive conclusion or indicating a particular degree of warmth, all rise and move to the second sofa in front of the fire. The President comes from behind his desk to join the visitors and sit side by side with them, in steps as hallowed by custom as a rain-making dance. This is no doubt exactly what happened when, as Carter puts it, ‘Deng Xiaoping came to Washington to visit with me’. What does it matter if nobody remembers a word of what was said? What does it matter if you have inadvertently left the impression that America would sit on its hands in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, when you have gone through a ceremony like that? In Reagan’s day, the layout was more static and offered less in the way of ritual. A pair of three-seater sofas were positioned in the middle of the room on the long axis, allowing the President a direct view of the fireplace from his desk and to meet visitors that included Mother Teresa, Gorbachev, Mrs Thatcher and a selection of Beirut hostages.
There is a giant plywood model of the dome of Congress, and a mock-up of the White House. His time in China is signalled by a pagoda that looks much like the kind of thing you might find in an upmarket but somewhat old-fashioned Chinese restaurant. Nixon’s library does something similar, not surprising since both were designed by the same firm. There is the bicycle Bush was given when he was America’s Ambassador in China, but which shows no signs of ever having been used. Deng Xiaoping is portrayed in tapestry form meeting Bush in 1985. The moment was captured by two artists from the Shanghai Red Star Tapestry Factory, who spent fifty-three days weaving it, kindred spirits of Ms Goodnight and her galloping horses outside. Bush’s time as Ambassador to the UN is encapsulated, daringly in the context of the limited world view of the Texas backwoods, by a row of UN flags. There are lots of photographs of Bush in dinner jackets, though none that record the evening in Tokyo when he started throwing up over his hosts.
Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis by Anatole Kaletsky
"Robert Solow", bank run, banking crisis, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, bonus culture, Bretton Woods, BRICs, business cycle, buy and hold, Carmen Reinhart, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, Corn Laws, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, credit crunch, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deglobalization, Deng Xiaoping, Edward Glaeser, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, eurozone crisis, experimental economics, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, floating exchange rates, full employment, George Akerlof, global rebalancing, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, laissez-faire capitalism, Long Term Capital Management, mandelbrot fractal, market design, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Nelson Mandela, new economy, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, oil shock, paradox of thrift, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, pets.com, Ponzi scheme, post-industrial society, price stability, profit maximization, profit motive, quantitative easing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, rent-seeking, reserve currency, rising living standards, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, short selling, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, statistical model, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, Vilfredo Pareto, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
Among the world’s biggest economies, China alone had emerged from the crisis more confident and powerful than before. In this environment, to believe in the ultimate success of a new form of democratic capitalism demanded a leap of faith. And indeed, nothing is preordained in history, nor anything immutable in economics. In the past forty years, dozens of relatively small events could have changed the course of history and transformed economic conditions the world over. Imagine if Deng Xiaoping had died in the Cultural Revolution alongside his mentor Liu Shaoqi. Or if Gorbachev had been passed over for the Soviet leadership. Or if John Hinckley’s bullet had been aimed an inch higher at Ronald Reagan’s chest. Or if Argentina had not invaded the Falklands, saving the government of Margaret Thatcher. Or if the hanging chads in Florida had fallen for Al Gore instead of George W. Bush. Any of these events would certainly have transformed the pace of change, but would they have moved history in a different direction?
As revealed by the epigraphs to this chapter, the aftershocks from this sudden and unexpected implosion spread far beyond the Soviet bloc—to India, China, South Africa, and every country and political movement that had been beguiled by the deceptive logic of socialist delusions. Two, Asia, and especially China, emerged as a significant part of the global economy. In theory, China’s gradual transformation into one of the most fiercely competitive and profit-oriented systems of private enterprise the world had ever seen began with Deng Xiaoping’s introduction of “Socialism with Chinese characteristics” in 1978.7 However, these reforms only began to deliver impressive results about a decade later, in the late 1980s, turning China into a serious commercial power, transforming the global trading system, and shifting the center of gravity of the world economy toward Asia. Three, a technological revolution accelerated in the late 1980s and did for human memory and intelligence what the steam engine and electricity did in the nineteenth century for muscle power.
The phrase dismal science was first used by the conservative historian Thomas Carlyle in a diatribe against what Carlyle described as John Stuart Mill’s dismal argument that landowners should be expected to pay normal wages on their West Indian plantations—and that if plantation economics did not allow such wages to be paid, the owners should be put out of business rather than allowed to enslave their fellow human beings. Yet the dismal adjective has stuck firmly to economics despite its paradoxical origin. Peter Groenewegen, “Thomas Carlyle, ‘The Dismal Science,’ and the Contemporary Political Economy of Slavery,” History of Economics Review 34 (Summer 2001): 74-94. 6 Galbraith quoted in The Observer, London, April 3, 1977. 7 Deng Xiaoping, “Build Socialism with Chinese Characteristics,” Speech to the Council of Sino-Japanese Non-Governmental Persons (June 30, 1984), printed in William De Bary and Richard Lufrano, eds., Sources of Chinese Tradition: From 1600 Through the Twentieth Century, vol. 2, 507-510. 8 The key events in computer technology were the introduction of the first standardized IBM personal computers and Intel microprocessors in 1983, the addition of a Graphical User Interface (GUI) to the Apple Macintosh in 1984, the Windows GUI by Microsoft in 1986, and the release in 1990 of Windows 3.0, a much improved GUI developed for the IBM 386 computer. 9 See, for example, Edward Glaeser and Janet Kohlhase, “Cities, Regions and the Decline of Transport Costs,” and Nils-Gustav Lundgren, “Bulk Trade and Maritime Transport Costs: The Evolution of Global Markets,” Resources Policy 22:1-2 (March-June 1996): 5-32. 10 Jeffrey Frankel, “The Japanese Cost of Finance: A Survey,” Financial Management 20:1 (Spring 1991).
The Fourth Revolution: The Global Race to Reinvent the State by John Micklethwait, Adrian Wooldridge
Admiral Zheng, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Asian financial crisis, assortative mating, banking crisis, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, British Empire, cashless society, central bank independence, Chelsea Manning, circulation of elites, Clayton Christensen, Corn Laws, corporate governance, credit crunch, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, Detroit bankruptcy, disintermediation, Edward Snowden, Etonian, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, Gunnar Myrdal, income inequality, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, land reform, liberal capitalism, Martin Wolf, means of production, minimum wage unemployment, mittelstand, mobile money, Mont Pelerin Society, Nelson Mandela, night-watchman state, Norman Macrae, obamacare, oil shale / tar sands, old age dependency ratio, open economy, Parag Khanna, Peace of Westphalia, pension reform, pensions crisis, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, popular capitalism, profit maximization, rent control, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, school choice, school vouchers, Silicon Valley, Skype, special economic zone, too big to fail, total factor productivity, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent, working-age population, zero-sum game
In South Korea, for instance, about 80 percent of what you get out of the system is tied to what you put in.15 In Asia as a whole, public-health spending is still only 2.5 percent of GDP, compared with about 7 percent in the OECD group of rich nations. The second reason is the crisis of the Western model of democracy and free-market capitalism. In the 1990s Lee’s lectures on Asian values seemed somewhat eccentric, even to Asians. The Washington consensus was sweeping all before it. Francis Fukuyama talked about “the total exhaustion of viable systematic alternatives to Western liberalism.”16 Rather than associating Deng Xiaoping’s China with economic greatness, Americans thought of the lone student walking toward the tanks in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Bill Clinton told China’s president, Jiang Zemin, to his face that he was “on the wrong side of history.”17 The Asian economic crisis in 1997 only reinforced the conceit of Western democracy, especially when the IMF had to launch a $40 billion program to help South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia, which had all borrowed too much from foreign banks.
China is also infinitely more brutal: The spoonful of medicine is sometimes applied this time by Rosa Klebb, not Mary Poppins. Above all, there is the size of the Middle Kingdom: Singapore would only just make it into a list of China’s twenty biggest cities. With a fifth of humanity within its borders, China is sui generis. It represents a Chinese alternative, not the Asian one. Yet in terms of direction—and direction matters enormously in China—Singapore plays an outsized role. Deng Xiaoping discovered the Singapore model in the 1980s as he tried to rebuild China after the disaster of Mao’s final years. “There is good social order in Singapore,” he observed in 1992. “We should draw from their experience, and do even better than them.”23 And ever since then China’s leaders have made pilgrimages to Singapore to visit Lee while their underlings, from places like CELAP, have been sent to study in Singapore.
., 20 deficits, deficit spending, 14, 100, 118–22, 177, 231–32, 241 unfunded liabilities and, 119, 232 democracy: in Asian-state model, 17 big government as threat to, 251, 264–69 as central tenet of Western state, 5, 8, 16–17, 22–23, 136, 141, 221 Founding Fathers and, 226, 250, 265 Fourth Revolution and, 249–70 globalization and, 262 imperfections of, 17, 127–28, 141, 143–44, 145, 226–27, 247–48, 251, 269 income inequality and, 263 in India, 136, 146 individual freedom as threatened by, 226, 250–51 nation-states and, 259, 262 presumed link to capitalism of, 261–62 as presumed universal aspiration, 261–62 as rooted in culture, 262 scarcity and, 247–48 self-interest and, 250, 260 short-term vs. long-term benefits in, 260–61, 264 special-interest groups and, 16–17, 111–15, 247, 251 strengths of, 263 twentieth-century triumph of, 252 twenty-first-century failures of, 252–61 uneven history of, 249–50 welfare state as threat to, 22, 142 Democracy in America (Tocqueville), 252 Democracy in Europe (Siedentop), 251 Democratic Party, U.S., 97, 240 spending curb approved by, 12 spending cuts opposed in, 100, 255 Democratic Review, 55 Deng Xiaoping, 142 Singapore as inspiration to, 145 Denmark, 22, 210 disability insurance in, 244 “flexicurity” system in, 173, 176 innovation in, 220 1980s financial crisis in, 176 reinvention of welfare state in, 173–74 Depression, Great, 69–70, 85 Detroit, Mich., 218–19 bankruptcy of, 14, 119 Detter, Dag, 236 Dicey, A.V., 57 Dickens, Charles, 50, 57–58 Dirksen, Everett, 192–93 disability-insurance reform, 244 Discovery Group, 211 discretionary spending, 195 diversity, 214–16 DNA databases, 182 Dodd-Frank Act (2010), 117, 239 Doncaster Prison, 214 Downey, Alan, 177 Drucker, Peter, 198 Dubai, 144, 217 Dukakis, Michael, 95 Dundase family, 49–50 East India Company, 36, 40, 47, 48, 50, 56, 150, 240 Eastman Kodak, 190–91 École Nationale d’Administration, 194 economic-freedom index, 174 Economist, 86, 97 Edison, Thomas, 179 education, 7, 9, 16, 48, 58, 197 charter schools in, 212, 214, 215 in China, 147, 148–49, 164 cost/outcome disparities in, 194–95 declining quality of, 111 diverse models for, 214–15 government domination of, 10 international rankings of, 19, 148, 206–7 preschool, 123 reform of, 58–59, 212 in Sweden, 171, 176–77 technology and, 179–80 voucher systems for, 171, 176–77, 220 in welfare state, 68, 69 Education Act (British, 1944), 75 Egypt, 155 failure of democracy in, 253, 262 Mubarak regime overthrown in, 144, 253 Eisenhower, Dwight, 77 elections, U.S., cost of, 257 electrocardiogram (ECG) machines, 205 elitism, 135, 136, 138–39 in Chinese Communist Party, 161–62 in U.S., 162 welfare state and, 77–78 Emanuel, Rahm, 216 emerging world: agriculture in, 238 as failing to grasp technological change, 18 innovation in, 17 lack of public confidence in, 13 local government in, 217 need for reform in, 14 urban population shift in, 218 “End of History, The” (Fukuyama), 262 Energetically Autonomous Tactical Robot (EATR), 182 Enlightenment, 42 entitlement reform, 95, 217, 234, 241–46 beneficiaries’ responsibilities and, 245 conditionality in, 17, 206, 244 disability insurance and, 244 globalization and, 245 information revolution and, 245 in Latin America, 17, 206, 244 means testing and, 243, 245 transparency and, 244–45 entitlements, 9, 10, 15, 16, 79, 100, 127, 141, 222, 228 aging population and, 124, 183–84, 232, 241–42 middle class and, 11, 17 pensions as, 79, 184, 243 as unfunded liabilities, 245–46, 264, 265 universal benefits in, 124, 141, 243–44 equality: capitalism and, 262–63 liberal state and, 69 of opportunity vs. result, 79, 228 sexual, 169 welfare state and, 68–69, 74, 79, 222 Western state and, 221 Equality (Tawney), 69 Erdogan, Recep Tayyip, 13, 254 Estonia, 121, 210 Euclid, 31, 33 eugenics, 67–68, 78, 169 euro, 99, 100, 258 euro crisis, 12, 100, 126, 130, 258–59 Europe: age of conquest in, 36–37, 39 compulsory sterilization in, 78 contest for secular supremacy in, 38–39 democracy’s failures in, 258–59 dysfunctional political systems in, 126 economic crisis in, 126 Enlightenment in, 42 government bloat in, 98–99 mercantilist policies in, 40 national consolidation in, 38–39 old-age dependency ratio in, 14–15 postwar era in, 78 public spending in, 99–100 revolutions of 1848 in, 54 technocratic bent in, 76–77, 259 transnational cooperation in, 76 wars of religion in, 34, 38 welfare state in, 75 European Atomic Energy Community, 76 European Central Bank, 258–59 European Coal and Steel Community, 76 European Commission, 254 European Economic Community, 76 European parliament, 258 European Union, 13, 16, 17, 76, 99, 108, 109, 258–59, 260 Extraordinary Black Book, The (Wade), 49 Exxon, 154 Fabians, 8, 21, 67, 72, 73, 96, 134, 169, 220 Facebook, 190–91 Falklands War, 94 Farrell, Diana, 132 fascism, 8, 71, 77, 252 Fatal Conceit: Errors of Socialism, The (Hayek), 134 Federal Communications Commission, 73 Federalist Papers, 5, 265 Federal Register, 117 Ferdinand II, King of Aragon, 37 filibusters, 256 financial crisis of 2007–8, 100, 164, 263 financial-services industry, 239 Finer, Samuel, 27, 276 Finland, 210 innovation in, 220 1990s financial crisis in, 176 fiscal crisis, as incentive for change, 198 Fisher, Antony, 81–82, 90, 92, 280 “flexicurity,” 173, 176 Ford, Henry, 189, 191, 201 fossil fuels, government subsidies for, 239 Foster, William, 58 Founding Fathers, 108 democracy and, 226, 250, 265 liberal state and, 44–45, 222 Fourteenth Amendment, 120 Fourth Revolution, 5 Asian-state competition as impetus for, 17, 163–64, 247 decentralization and, 216–19 democratic reform and, 249–70 diversity and, 214–16 entitlement reform and, see entitlement reform failure of current model as impetus for, 14–17 freedom and, 247, 248, 268, 270 government efficiency in, 233 ideological foundation of, 21, 28, 221–23, 232 information revolution and, 245, 246–47 infrastructure and, 232 innovation and, 219–20 monetary and fiscal reform in, 266–67 pluralism in, 211–14 as postbureaucratic, 211 pragmatism and, 18–19, 232–33 privatization and, 234–37 security and, 232 small government as principle of, 232, 264–69 subsidy-cutting and, 237–41 technology and, 18, 19–20, 233, 266–67 France, 43, 78 deficit spending in, 14 expanded bureaucracy in, 60 government bloat in, 12 pension age in, 16 public spending in, 75, 99–100 ruling elite of, 194 state capitalism in, 235 Francis I, King of France, 37 Fraser Institute, 174 fraternity, welfare state and, 74, 79 Frederick the Great, King of Prussia, 38 freedom: balance between security and, 230–31 as central tenet of Western state, 8, 23, 46, 68–69, 222, 256 core elements of, 223–24 democracy as threat to, 226, 250–51 diminished concept of, 225–27, 228–29 Fourth Revolution and, 247, 248, 268, 270 Hobbes and, 33 as ideological basis of liberal state, 69, 223–26 Mill and, 47–48, 55, 222, 224, 228, 250, 256, 268 necessary constraints on, 223 welfare state as threat to, 22, 74, 222, 265 see also rights Freedom House, 143, 252 free markets, 49, 59, 142 Friedman as evangelist for, 84, 86 Thatcher and, 93 free trade, 50, 54, 57 Mill’s espousal of, 55 French Revolution, 6, 44, 45–46, 249 Friedman, Milton, 81–87, 89, 93, 106, 128, 171, 280 background of, 82 big government as target of, 82, 84–85, 88 as free-market evangelist, 84, 86 Nobel Prize of, 82, 86, 91 Reagan and, 86 “Road to Hell” lecture of, 84 single currency opposed by, 99 Thatcher-Reagan revolution and, 8, 28, 97, 100 Friedman, Thomas, 163 Friedrich, Carl, 265 Fukuyama, Francis, 142, 143, 256, 262 Future of Freedom, The (Zakaria), 143 G20 countries, 15 Galbraith, John Kenneth, 85, 86 Galtieri, Leopoldo, 94 Galton, Francis, 68 Gardels, Nathan, 124 Gaskell, Elizabeth, 57 Gates, Bill, 97 Gazprom, 152, 153, 154 Geely, 150 General Electric (GE), 205, 243 General Motors (GM), 189, 190, 191, 233 General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, The (Keynes), 70 Geometry (Euclid), 31 George III, King of England, 11, 41 Germany, Federal Republic of (West Germany), 75, 78, 232, 265 Germany, Imperial, 6, 60–61 Germany, Nazi, 71, 232 Germany, unified, 12, 22, 173, 186, 212 gerrymandering, 13, 106, 113, 125, 256–57, 264, 267 see also rotten boroughs Gillray, James, 227 Gladstone, William, 7 economizing by, 51–52, 224 small government as principle of, 51–52, 60 tax policy of, 51 globalization, 10, 191, 193 democracy and, 262 entitlement reform and, 245 government and, 10, 96, 200–207 health care and, 200–201 national determination and, 259–60, 262 Glorious Revolution (1688), 43 GOATs (Government of All the Talents), 215 Godolphin, Sidney, 31 Golden Dawn party, 259 Goldman Sachs, 120 Goldwater, Barry, 80, 86 Google, 189–90, 191, 233 Gore, Al, 95, 131, 198 government: anti-innovation bias of, 194–95, 212, 219 bloat in, 9–11, 18–19, 89–90, 98, 177, 222–23, 227, 229–30, 231, 233 centralization bias of, 192–93, 212, 216 challenges to reform in, 196–98 coercive power of, 198 efficiency of, 18–21, 37, 89, 187, 198–99, 213, 233, 247, 255 entrenched workforce of, 193–94 globalization and, 200–207 in-house bias of, 192, 212 local, 216–19, 267 public contempt for, 106, 112, 227–28, 230, 233, 251, 261 sunset clauses and, 118, 246, 266 technology and, 200, 207–11 uniformity bias of, 193–94, 212, 214 volunteerism and, 216 Government Accountability Office, 235 Grace Commission, 198 Gray, Vincent, 210 Great Britain: asylum seekers in, 54 as capitalist state, 50–54 commercial empire of, 39–40 deficit of, 177 education reform in, 58–59, 79, 212, 214–15 falling crime rate in, 181 fiscal reform in, 130–31 government bloat in, 89–90 health-care spending in, 90 landed artistocracy of, 48, 49 liberal revolution in, 46 low public confidence in, 11 national pride in, 61–62 patronage vs. meritocracy in, 50, 52–53, 222 postwar era in, 78 power of Anglican Church in, 48 public spending in, 9, 75 wars of, 6 “winter of discontent” in, 93 Great Depression, 69–70, 85 Great Exhibition of 1851, 54 Great Society, 77, 192 Great Western Railway, 65 Greece, 16 economy of, 120, 259 public-sector employees in, 115 public spending in, 99 Green, T.H., 61 Green River Formation, 236 Grenville family, 49–50 Grillo, Beppe, 12, 227 gross domestic product (GDP), unreliability of, 121 Grote, George, 54 Guangdong, China, 217 Gunpowder Plot (1605), 31 Hagel, Chuck, 256 Hall, Joseph, 35 Halsey, A.H., 88 Hamilton, Alexander, 5, 150 Hamilton, James, 120 happiness, right to, 48, 49 Hard Times (Dickens), 58 Havel, Václav, 252 Hayek, Friedrich, 10, 83, 85–86, 92, 93, 134, 170 Health and Social Security Department, British, 89 health care, 7, 9, 90, 98, 213 aging population and, 15, 183, 242 in China, 164 cost of, 110, 121, 205, 242–43 cost/outcome disparities in, 195 globalization and, 200–201 government domination of, 10 in India, 17, 18, 200–206 labor productivity in, 200 mass production in, 201–3 Obamacare and, 20, 98, 117, 199, 208, 217 role of doctors in, 203–5, 243 single-payer systems in, 205, 233, 243 special interest groups and, 200 in Sweden, 171–73 technology and, 183, 208–9 healthcare.gov, 199 health insurance, 141 health registries, 172, 183, 209 Heath, Edward, 92–93 Hegel, G.W.F., 45, 60–61 71 Helsinki, 220 Heritage Foundation, 92 Hewlett, Bill, 105 Higgins, David, 215 Hilton, Steve, 132 History of the Peloponnesian War (Thucydides), 250 Hitler, Adolf, 71 Hobbes, Thomas, 6, 8, 9, 21, 27–28, 29, 40, 44, 63, 135–36, 181, 219, 268 background of, 30–31 as controversial thinker, 31–32 on human nature, 29–30, 44–45 individual liberty and, 33 as materialist, 33 as royalist, 6, 18, 31–32 social contract and, 32, 34, 42, 222 Hogarth, William, 227 Hollande, François, 12, 16, 153, 184, 194 Holocaust, 78 Homestead Act (U.S., 1862), 62 House of Cards (TV show), 227 House of Commons, 127 House of Representatives, U.S., 97, 127 Howard, Philip, 118, 132, 195 Hu Jintao, 2 Huldai, Ron, 216 Hume, David, 43 Hungary, 254 Huntington, Samuel, 41–42 Hurun Report, 161 Iceland, 261 India, 8, 35, 36 China contrasted with, 146, 153 democracy in, 136, 146 economic stagnation in, 147 education in, 147 health care in, 17, 18, 200–206 infant mortality rate in, 201 lack of public confidence in, 13 local government in, 217–18 nepotism in, 162–63 Thatcherite reform in, 96 as weak state, 37 Indonesia, 142–43 health insurance in, 141 industry, landed aristocracy as opponent of, 48 Industry and Trade (Marshall), 233 information, access to, 210–11, 214 information revolution, 245, 246–47 information technology (IT), 18, 19–20 infrastructure: Fourth Revolution and, 232 spending on, 122, 232 innovation, 219–20 in business sector, 194 government bias against, 194–95, 212, 219 nation-state and, 37, 39 Institute for Energy Research, 236 Institute of Economic Affairs, 82, 92 Institute of Medicine, 204 Institute of Racial Biology, 78 interest groups, 16–17, 90, 111–15 Interior Department, U.S., 236 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 15, 76, 90 Asian financial crisis and, 142–43 Internet, 191, 260 health care and, 208–9 self-help and, 209 Iran, China and, 152 Iraq, 253 Iraq War, 143, 253 Ireland, 38 public spending in, 99–100 Isabella I, Queen of Castile, 37 Islamic world: antiscientific attitudes in, 41 in sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, 35 Istanbul, 35 Italy, 196, 259 pension reform in, 130 politicians’ pay and benefits in, 115 public spending in, 99–100 voter apathy in, 12 It’s Even Worse Than It Looks (Mann and Ornstein), 125–26, 227 Jackson, Andrew, 55 Jacques, Martin, 163 Jagger, Mick, 90 James I, King of England, 31 James II, King of England, 43 Japan, 15, 17, 36 Jarvis, Howard, 91 Jay, Douglas, 77 Jiang Jiemin, 154 Jiang Zemin, 142 Johnson, Boris, 216–17 Johnson, Lyndon, 77, 80, 87 Joseph, Keith, 92, 93 Juncker, Jean-Claude, 128 Kamarck, Elaine, 131–32 Kangxi, Emperor of China, 40 Kansas, 130 Kant, Immanuel, 224 Kaplan, Robert, 144 Kapoor, Anish, 34 Kennedy, Joseph, 73 Kentucky Fried Chicken, 185 Kerry, John, 96 Keynes, John Maynard, 22, 69–70, 76, 97 pragmatism of, 70–71 Keynesianism, 71, 77, 83, 95 counterrevolution against, 82–84 Khan, Salman, 180 Khan Academy, 180 King, Martin Luther, Jr., 79 Kingsley, Charles, 58 Kirk, Russell, 85 Kissinger, Henry, 133, 136 Kleiner, Morris, 118 Knight, Frank, 84 Knowledge Is Power Program (KIPP), 215 Kocher, Robert, 200 Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 120 Kristol, Irving, 87 Kroc, Ray, 185 Labour Party, British, 68, 69, 70, 77, 93, 94–95, 114 laissez-faire economics, 56, 57, 61, 65–66, 70, 71 Laski, Harold, 68, 134 Latin America: economies of, 8 entitlement reform in, 17, 206, 244 Lazzarini, Sergio, 153 Lee Hsien Loong, 135, 138 Lee Kuan Yew, 4, 17, 53, 133–34, 137, 139–41, 143, 144, 145, 147, 156, 170, 183, 244 authoritarianism of, 137, 138 small-government ideology of, 140, 165 Left, 62, 73, 88, 183 government bloat and, 10–11, 98 government efficiency and, 20, 187, 213 and growth of big government, 10, 98, 131, 175, 185, 228, 230, 231 subsidy-cutting and, 234, 237–38 Lehman Brothers, 14 Lenovo, 150 Le Pen, Marine, 259 Le Roy, Louis, 276 Leviathan, 10 Leviathan (Hobbes), 29, 32, 33, 34, 42 Leviathan, Monumenta 2011 (Kapoor), 34 Liberal Party, British, 68, 70 liberals, liberalism: and debate over size of government, 48, 49, 232 freedom as core tenet of, 69, 223–26, 232 right to happiness as tenet of, 48, 49 role of state as seen by, 21–22, 222–23, 226, 232 see also Left; liberal state liberal state, 6–7, 8, 220, 221 capitalism and, 50–54 competition and, 247 education in, 7, 48, 58–59 equality and, 69 expanded role of government in, 56–62 Founding Fathers and, 44–45, 222 freedom as ideological basis of, 69, 223–26, 232, 268 industrial revolution and, 246–47 meritocracy as principle of, 50, 52–53 protection of rights as primary role of, 45 rights of citizens expanded by, 7, 9, 48, 49, 51 rise of, 27–28, 269 small government as principle of, 48, 49, 51–52, 61, 232 libertarian Right, 82 liberty, see freedom Libya, 253 LifeSpring Hospitals, 202–3 Lincoln, Abraham, 62, 92 Lindahl, Mikael, 176 Lindgren, Astrid, 170 Lisbon, Treaty of (2007), 258 Little Dorrit (Dickens), 50 Liu Xiaobo, 166 Livingston, Ken, 217 Lloyd George, David, 62 lobbies, Congress and, 238–40, 257 Locke, John, 42, 43, 45 social contract and, 42, 222 Logic of Collective Action, The (Olson), 111 London School of Economics, 67, 74 Louis XIV, King of France, 38 Lowe, Robert, 58–59 L.
When the Money Runs Out: The End of Western Affluence by Stephen D. King
Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, congestion charging, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crony capitalism, cross-subsidies, debt deflation, Deng Xiaoping, Diane Coyle, endowment effect, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, financial repression, fixed income, floating exchange rates, full employment, George Akerlof, German hyperinflation, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, income per capita, inflation targeting, invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, joint-stock company, Kickstarter, liquidationism / Banker’s doctrine / the Treasury view, liquidity trap, London Interbank Offered Rate, loss aversion, market clearing, mass immigration, moral hazard, mortgage debt, new economy, New Urbanism, Nick Leeson, Northern Rock, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old age dependency ratio, price mechanism, price stability, quantitative easing, railway mania, rent-seeking, reserve currency, rising living standards, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, technology bubble, The Market for Lemons, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Tobin tax, too big to fail, trade route, trickle-down economics, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce, working-age population
The resulting increase in consumer demand encouraged industry to deliver substantial economies of scale, with mass production becoming ever more commonplace. Social security systems designed to prevent a repeat of the terrible impoverishment of the 1930s became increasingly widespread, reducing the need for households to stuff cash under the mattress for unforeseen emergencies: they could thus spend more freely. With the reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping at the end of the 1970s and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, countries that had been trapped in the economic equivalent of a deep-freeze were able to come in from the cold, creating new opportunities for trade and investment: trade between China and the US, for example, expanded massively. Women, sorely underrepresented in the workforce through lack of opportunity and lack of pay, suddenly found themselves in gainful employment thanks to sex discrimination legislation.
In any case, without expansion, the risk of Smith-style melancholy becomes that much greater. At the same time, economies with low per capita incomes and rising income inequality may be able to expand relatively easily 159 4099.indd 159 29/03/13 2:23 PM When the Money Runs Out if, for example, there is support for political reform to allow a faster rate of economic growth. Think, for example, of China’s economic success – thanks to reforms launched by Deng Xiaoping – since the 1980s. Even with high levels of income inequality, rapid growth can keep Smith’s melancholy at bay. Indeed, China’s success has been accompanied by a persistent rise in income inequality. Fast-developing economies typically go through a period of rapidly rising inequality as the new urban ‘rich’ see their incomes fast outstripping those of the rural poor, thanks to higher levels of productivity in manufacturing than in rural endeavours.
‘Forecasting Recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Law’, NBER Working Paper No. 2066, Nov. 1986 278 4099.indd 278 29/03/13 2:23 PM INDEX Africa 19 ageing populations 78, 88, 250 age-related expenditure 48 generational divide 171–4, 241, 243–5 Germany 136 Japan 23, 25 AIG 30 Akerlof, George 123–4 American War of Independence 154 ancien régime and the French Revolution 151–7 Angola 19, 82 Anwar Ibrahim 200 Arab Spring 160 Argentina 13–19, 24–6, 39, 42, 161 Arizona Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighbourhoods Act (SB 1070) 192 Armstrong, Neil 9–10, 35 Arrow, Kenneth J. 132–3 Asian crisis 192–6 recovery from 204–5, 206, 208–9 asset prices 62–3 asset-backed securities 73 Audit Commission 173–4 austerity 67–8, 111, 205, 226, 242 and political extremism 227 Statute of Labourers 211 versus stimulus 4 wartime 114, 143 see also Snowden’s budget Australia 15, 16, 117, 187 Austria 225 baby boomers 1, 7, 243 bailouts 61–2, 241 Balls, Ed 101 Bank Negara 199 Bank of England 33, 61, 90–2 economic growth forecasts 74 interest rates 71, 102 and Libor 126 Bank of Japan 21 banking free 255, 257 and protectionism 215 union (eurozone) 256 banks 125–31, 252–7 bankers’ rewards 48–9 failure 30–1, 255 liquidity buffers 84, 90 mortgage loan-to-value ratios 51–2 regulatory uncertainty 251–2 and savers 136 see also central banks Barclays Bank plc 126, 127–8 279 4099.indd 279 29/03/13 2:23 PM When the Money Runs Out Basel III regulations 83 Bean, Charlie 63–5, 75 Bear Stearns 30 Belgium 184 Ben Ali, Zine al-Abidine 160 Benedetti, Count 182 benefits 47, 203–4 see also social spending Bernanke, Ben 4, 21–2 Beveridge, William 44–5 bimetallism 184–5 Bismarck, Otto von 182 Black Death 209–10, 213 blame culture 108, 161, 189, 200–1, 226–7 Blenheim Palace 222–3 bonds 73, 77, 80, 86, 221 borrowers 97, 133–4, 137 borrowing, government borrower of last resort 86–7 heavy 143–4 international 142 and low interest rates 71, 245 and the New Deal 109 to offset private saving 217–18 relative to national income 198, 247 rising 32 see also credit: queues Botswana 19 Brazil 19, 89, 163 Britain see UK (United Kingdom) British Empire 14, 15, 16 Bryan, William Jennings 187 budget deficits 58, 69, 79, 110, 117 France 54 Germany 54 Spain 54 UK 52, 54, 66–7 US 53–4, 66–7, 118 Buenos Aires 15 Business Week 29–30 Buxton, Thomas Fowell 128 California 173 Calonne, Charles-Alexandre de 154–5 Canada 15, 16 capital adequacy ratios 256 controls 16, 199–200, 201, 234 flight and the euro 191 foreign 198, 202 immobile 250–2 markets 31, 133 and the rise of living standards 180 Carr, Jimmy 148 Case-Shiller house price index 63 Catalonia 153 Central African Republic 163 central banks and bailouts 241 expansion of remit 86 and government debt 80–1 and illusory wealth 64–5 interest rates 71 and a new monetary framework 245–6 nominal GDP targeting 247–50 and politics 78, 89–90, 91–5 and redistribution 121 see also quantitative easing (QE) Chicago 15 China and commodity prices 77 financial systems 135 and globalization 167 income inequality 160, 163 living standards 27 per capita incomes 251 and regional tensions 228 renminbi currency 177 silver standard 183, 185 trading partners 82 and the US 12, 139 Chinese Exclusion Act 188–9 Chrysi Avgi 227 Churchill, Winston 103 circuit breakers 242, 256 Coinage Act 184–5 Committee on National Expenditure 98–9 commodity prices 77, 109, 116–17 conduits 129–30 Connecticut 163 consumer credit 11–12, 52, 135 contingent redistribution 236 credit consumer 11–12, 52, 135 derivation of word 125 expansion 56–7 and the property boom 61 and protectionism 215 queues 80–1, 83–4, 85–9, 217 Creditanstalt 225 creditors creditor nations 224–5, 232 and debtors 139–43, 174–7, 188, 191, 232–4 280 4099.indd 280 29/03/13 2:23 PM Index foreign 193, 221, 223 home grown 138 Japan 22 cross-subsidization, of banking services 256–7 currencies 177, 221 ‘currency wars’ 82, 190 see also eurozone; renminbi; ringgit; sterling Darling, Alistair 92–3 debt and asset prices 63 and central banks 241–2 eurozone crisis 145, 235–9 excessive 67, 213–14 France 154 household 12, 63–4, 85 and inflation 220 Japan 23 and national incomes 52, 118, 141–2 and quantitative easing (QE) 79–80 repaying 34 debt deflation 115 debtors and creditors 139–43, 174–7, 188, 191, 232–4 eurozone 224–5 home grown 138 deficient demand 57, 59 deficit expansion 119 deficit reduction 242 deficits 58, 69, 79, 110, 117 France 54 Germany 54 Korea 202 pension funds 75, 172 Spain 54 and surpluses 134–7, 232–4 UK 52, 54, 66–7 US 53–4, 66–7, 118 deflation 21–2, 185 democratic deficit 143, 221 Deng Xiaoping 12, 160 Denmark 158 the Depression 55–7, 59, 70, 106–10, 131 and the UK 98, 101 Dexia 30 Diamond, Bob 126 Dickens, Charles 43 disaster-avoidance 7 District of Columbia 163 dollar standard 190 dotcom bubble 169 Draghi, Mario 94 economics profession 3–4, 5–6, 258–9 Edelman Trust Barometer 148 education 12 financial 257–9 literacy 15 training 254 Edward III 211 Egana, Amaia 153 emerging nations 28, 116 employment 115–16 see also labour; unemployment enfranchisement 222, 242–4 the Enlightenment 6, 11, 154 entitlement culture 45, 48, 137, 143, 209, 218 absent from Asia 204, 209 need to reduce 178, 205 equities 79, 172 ethics 254 Ethiopia 19 European Central Bank (ECB) 92, 93–5, 119–20, 144–5, 146 eurozone banking union 256 crisis 224–6, 235–9 and the European Central Bank 93–5 northern creditors and southern debtors 67, 139, 145, 157, 191, 232–3 and trust 145–6 and the UK 111, 214 variations in borrowing costs 215–16 exchange rates 81–2, 111–12, 175, 239–42 executive pay 48 exports 11, 112 extremism, political 226–9 Fannie Mae 190 Federal Reserve 74, 92, 105, 241 and the Great Depression 59, 106–7 Ferguson, Niall 26 Ferguson, Roger 194 feudalism 213 financial services 168–70 innovations 11–12, 38, 133–4 Financial Services Authority (FSA) 171 Finland 158 First World War 103, 114 ‘fiscal club’ concept 237–9 fiscal policy 58, 66–7, 69–70, 77–8, 246–7 fiscal trap 79–81 281 4099.indd 281 29/03/13 2:23 PM When the Money Runs Out fiscal unions 236–7 Fisher, Irving 108, 115 football 165 forecasting 52–3, 63, 71–2, 74, 108 Fortis 30 France age-related expenditure 48 ancien régime and the Revolution 151–7 and Austria 225–6 benefits 204 budget deficit 54 exports 82 Latin monetary union 184 per capita incomes 101, 105 and political extremism 192 and public spending 49 Franco-Prussian War 182 Frank, Barney 65 fraudulent acts 35–6 Freame, John 127–8 Freddie Mac 190 free banking 255, 257 French Revolution, and the ancien régime 151–7 Freud, Sigmund 51 Friedman, Milton 59, 60, 86, 106, 188 Fuld, Dick 253 GDP forecasts 48, 52–4 targeting 247–50 General Strike 104 generational divide 171–4, 241, 243–5 see also ageing populations Germany ageing population 48, 136, 171 benefits 204 budget deficit 54 and the eurozone crisis 34, 191, 225, 232–3, 235 exports 82 Franco-Prussian War reparations 184, 186 government borrowing 71, 144 interest rates 146 late 19th-century economy 186, 189–90 living standards 13–14 national income 32 per capita incomes 101, 105 and the Protestant work ethic 26 and public spending 50 surplus 135–7 Treaty of Versailles 103 unification 182–3 Weimar Republic 55–6, 89 GfK/NOP Inflation Attitudes Survey 92 globalization 166–7, 169, 214–16, 224–6, 250–1 Gold Standard 186 and Germany 184 and the UK 57, 98–9, 102, 103, 105 and the US 107, 109, 187–8 gold standards 183–4, 185 Golden Dawn Party 227 Goodwin, Fred 253 Gordon, Robert J. 4 government bonds 73, 77, 80, 86, 221 government borrowing borrower of last resort 86–7 heavy 143–4 international 142 and low interest rates 71, 245 and the New Deal 109 to offset private saving 217–18 relative to national income 198, 247 rising 32 see also credit: queues government debt and central banks 241–2 eurozone crisis 145 excessive 67, 213–14 France 154 and inflation 220 and national incomes 52, 118, 141–2 and quantitative easing (QE) 79–80 governments and central bank bailouts 241 and credit queues 83–92 mistrust 140, 147–8, 217–18 social spending 45–7 spending 58, 109, 119, 142, 203 spending increases 49–50, 66 Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act 242 Great Depression 55–7, 59, 70, 106–10, 131 and the UK 98, 101 Great Railroad Strike 187 Greece 82, 134, 140–1, 144–6, 234 and the euro 191 and political extremism 192, 227 Greenback Party 187 Greenspan, Alan 61–2 growth forecasting 74 global 28 start of the 21st century 169–70 targeting 247–50 282 4099.indd 282 29/03/13 2:23 PM Index Hamada Marine Bridge 23 Hayek, Friedrich 56, 207 HBOS 30 health spending 45–6 Helmsley, Leona 148 high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) 83–4 home bias 215–16, 251–2 Hong Kong 163, 204 Hoover administration 118 housing markets 30–1, 61, 63–5, 115–16, 130 foreign buyers 177, 223 see also mortgage-backed securities; subprime HSBC 126, 254 Hundred Years War 209–10 Hungary 89 hyperinflation 78, 89 Iceland 32 Illinois 173, 174 illusions and asset prices 62–3 illusory prosperity 49–51, 56–7, 64–5, 68 and investment philosophy 137–8 public sector 52–3 IMF 200, 202 import tariffs 16 income inequalities 25, 34, 48, 158–70 income, national 32, 49–50, 141–2, 247 Germany 33 Japan 32 UK 110–11, 112 US 117–18 incomes, per capita 27, 49, 159–60, 163 Argentina 14 China 251 France 101, 105 Germany 14, 101, 105 India 27, 251 Indonesia 197 Japan 21 Korea 202 Malaysia 198 UK 1, 44, 101, 105 US 14, 101 India 27, 183, 185, 251 Indonesia 193, 195, 196–7 industrial relations 103–4 Industrial Revolution 38 IndyMac 30 inflation and ageing populations 250 Argentina 18 and commodity prices 116–17 deflation 21–2, 185 excessive 77–8, 89 housing market 64 and the New Deal 109 and stagnation 219–20 targeting 59–61, 87–8, 246, 247 UK 114 US 115 infrastructure projects 236 innovations, financial 11–12, 38, 133–4 interest rates and asset prices 63 credit queue jumping 83–92, 217 expected future 87–8 falls 32, 69, 137, 146–7 inflation versus GDP targeting 248–9 Libor 126 and monetary and fiscal policies 245–6 persistently low 72, 75, 76, 89–91, 239 and stimulus 58 subsidizing 190 UK 61, 71, 102 US 57, 61, 105, 135, 193 intergenerational divide 171–4, 241, 243–5 see also ageing populations International Monetary Fund (IMF) 144–5, 200, 201, 202 international/domestic conflict 232–5 investment demand for financial services 168 and income inequality 162–3 international 134, 136, 176–7, 193, 232 private investors 144–5 Ireland 49, 134 Israeli–Palestinian conflict 122–3 Italy 49–50, 82, 146, 184, 191 ageing populations 171 Japan 20–6 ageing populations 171 attempted reforms 42 debt repayment 135 exports 11 government borrowing 144 government debt 52 liquidity trap 72 living standards 14 national income 32–3 and quantitative easing (QE) 85 stockpile of assets 240 and trust 161 unreliable estimates 113 283 4099.indd 283 29/03/13 2:23 PM When the Money Runs Out Jay Cooke and Company 186 Jerusalem trip 122–3 Jews, attitudes towards 189, 200–1, 213 jobs 115–16 see also labour; unemployment Kahneman, D. 41 Kalecki, Michael 59 Das Kapital(Marx) 179 Keynes, John Maynard 38, 57–9, 72, 86, 108 ‘Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren’ 259–60 Essays in Persuasion 100 The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money 58–9, 89 on the Gold Standard 104 How to Pay for the War 114 Keynes Plan 233 Keynesian policies 60 on the Snowden budget 99 King, Mervyn 73, 90–1, 92–3, 180 Knetsch, J.
The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty by Daron Acemoglu, James A. Robinson
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, AltaVista, Andrei Shleifer, bank run, Berlin Wall, British Empire, California gold rush, central bank independence, centre right, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, colonial rule, Computer Numeric Control, conceptual framework, Corn Laws, corporate governance, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crony capitalism, Dava Sobel, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of the americas, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, information asymmetry, interest rate swap, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Harrison: Longitude, joint-stock company, Kula ring, labor-force participation, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, mass incarceration, Maui Hawaii, means of production, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, obamacare, openstreetmap, out of africa, PageRank, pattern recognition, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Skype, spinning jenny, Steven Pinker, the market place, transcontinental railway, War on Poverty, WikiLeaks
“standing on tiptoe at midnight” (these were all names for types of punishment)—were common. They would make us eat shit and drink urine and call it eating fried dough sticks and drinking wine. They were really inhuman. Luo was not arrested during the Great Leap Forward, but in March 2001, when China was already a respected member of the international community and an economic powerhouse. Indeed, the Reeducation Through Labor system was expanded after 1979 by Deng Xiaoping, the engineer of China’s legendary economic growth over the last four decades, who saw it as a useful complement to his “economic reform” program. In 2012 there were around 350 reeducation camps with 160,000 detainees. A person can be committed to such a camp for up to four years without any legal process. The reeducation camps are just one part of an extensive gulag of detention centers and various illegal “black jails” dotting the Chinese countryside and are complemented by an expanded “community corrections system,” which has grown rapidly in recent years.
But in the absence of any constraints on the power of the omnipotent ruler, these movements could always be reversed. Over the next 2,000 years China was periodically rocked by various attempts to reassert the model of Shang Yang, the most recent being the rise to power of the Communists after 1949 who implemented their own version of the well-field system in the form of collectivized agriculture. The contemporary incarnation of the Confucian model is what we have seen since 1978 under Deng Xiaoping when collectivization went into reverse and Chinese leaders started attacking corruption, since this violated Confucian principles of virtuous rule. To know what’s likely to happen in the future in China, it is important to understand this historical oscillation between legalism and Confucianism. The first attempt to reintroduce strict state control over the economy after the demise of the Qin came from the Han emperor Wu, who ruled for fifty-four years, between 141 and 87 BCE.
Merchants and industrialists were treated pretty much the same way as they were under the imperial state, and were only allowed to become members of the party in 2001. It was not until 2007 that a law governing private property rights was passed that made their assets more secure. Growth Under Moral Leadership Things changed after Mao’s death in 1976. A bitter power struggle at the top of the Communist Party concluded with Deng Xiaoping’s dominance over the party and the state in 1978. Deng initiated a radical transformation of the economy, preparing the ground for the subsequent massive boom of the Chinese economy. Should we see a rupture with the past in this transition? Though there are undoubtedly many new elements in the post-1978 Chinese economy and politics, and it is critical to recognize these, there are remarkable continuities too.
Globish: How the English Language Became the World's Language by Robert McCrum
Alistair Cooke, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, call centre, Charles Lindbergh, colonial rule, credit crunch, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, Etonian, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, invention of movable type, invention of writing, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, jimmy wales, knowledge economy, Livingstone, I presume, Martin Wolf, Naomi Klein, Norman Mailer, Parag Khanna, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Republic of Letters, Ronald Reagan, sceptred isle, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, Steven Pinker, the new new thing, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transcontinental railway, upwardly mobile
In 2010, if there is one nation whose modernizing mission should benefit from Globish, it must be the new China. But how exactly, and when? The beginnings of the new China are to be found not in the Communist takeover of 1949 but in the prelude to the Third Plenum of the Eleventh Central Committee, which met in December 1978. Mao Zedong had been dead for just over two years but his revolutionary heirs still held the reins of power. So it was all the more remarkable that the new party chairman, Deng Xiaoping, a feisty survivor of the Cultural Revolution, should make a speech in advance of the Third Plenum arguing that the reality of the world economy, not narrow party ideology, should govern China’s future policy and direction. ‘It does not matter if it is a black cat or a white cat,’ Deng observed. ‘As long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat.’ This homely incitement to pragmatism launched the Chinese economic miracle of the last three decades. 2 How to convey the awesome scale of China’s self-transformation?
Now, in the twenty–first century, the challenge for China will be how to integrate Globish values into the alien matrix of the Chinese tradition. Some commentators, like the (London) Observer’s Will Hutton, do not believe it can be done. In The Writing on the Wall, Hutton declares: ‘for all China’s success to date, ultimately the system that the communists have created is structurally unstable.’ China’s ‘new left’, who support the market reforms inaugurated by Deng Xiaoping in 1979, disagree with this bleak diagnosis, which they see as uninformed, and talk instead about institutional innovation, with frequent references to low–price health care, green development programmes and the reform of property laws to incentivise workers in the state’s project. According to Leonard, ‘the balance of power in Beijing is subtly shifting towards the [new] left’. In the 11th Five Year Plan of 2005, for instance, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao were happy to describe a blueprint for a ‘harmonious society’ rather than insisting on a forced march towards more economic growth, previously China’s great ambition.
Five Point Someone features soft drugs, binge drinking, and an affair between a student and his professor’s daughter. One Night @ the Call Centre is a romantic comedy set in a call centre office where bored young Indians try to resolve the mindless enquiries of midwestern American technophobes. Bhagat says that his novel reflects a generational divide in India. His model society is China, not the modernising China of Deng Xiaoping, but the radicalising China of Mao Zedong. ‘India needs a cultural revolution to change mindsets,’ Bhagat told the Guardian. ‘In China it was bloody, but India needs to learn that the old ways are not always the best ways.’ One Night @ the Call Centre has already sold about 2 million copies. In October 2008 it reached a new audience when a Bollywood film adaptation went on general release. Bollywood is another example of Globish in microcosm, and a vital barometer of linguistic and cultural change in India today.
Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Gobal Crisis by James Rickards
Asian financial crisis, bank run, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Black Swan, borderless world, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business climate, buy and hold, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Deng Xiaoping, diversification, diversified portfolio, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, full employment, game design, German hyperinflation, Gini coefficient, global rebalancing, global reserve currency, high net worth, income inequality, interest rate derivative, John Meriwether, Kenneth Rogoff, laissez-faire capitalism, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, market bubble, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Myron Scholes, Network effects, New Journalism, Nixon shock, offshore financial centre, oil shock, one-China policy, open economy, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, price mechanism, price stability, private sector deleveraging, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, special economic zone, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, time value of money, too big to fail, value at risk, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
Implementation was delayed, however, due to disruptions caused by Zhou’s death in January 1976, followed by the death of Communist Party chairman Mao Zedong in September of that year and the arrest one month later of the radical Gang of Four, including Madame Mao, after a brief reign. Mao’s designated successor, Hua Guofeng, carried forward Zhou’s vision and made a definitive break with the Maoist past at a National Party Congress in December 1978. Hua was aided in this by the recently rehabilitated and soon to be dominant Deng Xiaoping. Real change began the next year, followed by a period of experimentation and pilot programs aimed at increasing autonomy in decision making on farms and in factories. In 1979, China took the landmark decision to create four special economic zones offering favorable work rules, reduced regulation and tax benefits designed to attract foreign investment, especially in manufacturing, assembly and textile industries.
The surest way to rapid, massive job creation was to become an export powerhouse. The currency peg was the means to this end. For the Communist Party of China, the dollar-yuan peg was an economic bulwark against another Tiananmen Square. By 1992, reactionary elements in China opposed to reform again began to push for a dismantling of Deng’s special economic zones and other programs. In response, a visibly ailing and officially retired Deng Xiaoping made his famous New Year’s Southern Tour, a personal visit to major industrial cities, including Shanghai, which generated support for continued economic development and which politically disarmed the reactionaries. The 1992 Southern Tour marked a second-stage takeoff in Chinese economic growth, with real GDP more than doubling from 1992 to 2000. However, the effect of this spectacular growth in the 1990s on U.S.
Cold War era Collapse of Complex Societies, The (Tainter) collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) commodities Commodity Futures Modernization Act Communist Party of China competitive devaluations complexity theory Connally, John connectedness, in complex systems convening power theory copper correlation, in global financial warfare Cosmic Evolution (Chaisson) Coughlin, Charles counterfeiting Credit-Anstalt Bank of Vienna critical state systems critical thresholds currency collapse capital flight response to dollar collapse in complexity theory 1920s currency convergence currency devaluations competitive dollar devaluation against gold, 1930s and 1970s 1930s and 1970s sterling devaluations Tripartite Agreement of 1936 and currency markets currency peg currency wars Atlantic theater benefits of chaos as outcome of Currency War I (1921–1936) Currency War II (1967–1987) Currency War III (2010–) Eurasian theater Pacific theater Czechoslovakia Davison, Henry P. Dawes, Charles Dawes Plan, 1924 de Gaulle, Charles debasement Defense, U.S. Department of, and financial war game deficits under gold exchange standard international trade and U.S. dollar vulnerability deflation China’s yuan exchange rate and 1920s gold prices and in 1930s and U.S. gold devaluation U.S. fears during 2000, 2002–2011 Deng Xiaoping derivatives derivatives contracts Deutsche Bundesbank devaluations China’s fears of U.S. currency devaluation competitive 1930s currency U.S. 1930s gold devaluation Dodd-Frank reform legislation of 2010 dollar inflation dollar, U.S. black market trade of Bretton Woods system and collapse in complexity theory collapse of dollar-denominated markets collapse of, potential counterfeit one-hundred-dollar bills devaluation of dollar-gold parity early warning attacks on euro-dollar exchange rate Federal Reserve and dollar price stability on floating rate system 1920s Germany, value in 1930s devaluation against gold 1970s devaluation against gold 1980s return of under Nixon’s New Economic Policy reserve currency, as global Russian ruble and and SDRs in dollar replacement strategy as supercurrency yen-dollar relationship yuan-dollar exchange rate Dow Jones Industrial Average Drudge Report Dubai economics behavioral financial misuse of efficient markets theory Eichengreen, Barry elite rent seeking embargoes Emergency Banking Act of 1933 emergent properties, in complex system energy, money-as-energy model England and depression of 1920–1921 and German hyperinflation gold reserves and gold standard London Gold Pool 1960s sterling crisis 1968 closing of gold market and Panic of 1931 and Paris Peace Conference of 1919 and Treaty of Versailles and Tripartite Agreement of 1936 “Enhancing International Monetary Stability—A Role for the SDR?”
The Elements of Power: Gadgets, Guns, and the Struggle for a Sustainable Future in the Rare Metal Age by David S. Abraham
3D printing, Airbus A320, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, commoditize, Deng Xiaoping, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, glass ceiling, global supply chain, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, reshoring, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, telemarketer, Tesla Model S, thinkpad, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks, Y2K
Countries such as Japan that are unable to meet resource demands either through their own mining and production or through secure stable trade, will find companies leaving their shores and taking thousands of jobs with them. When it comes to rare earth and other rare metals, this is a migration that China is counting on. The importance of rare metals and specifically rare earth elements in China’s development goes back to the country’s revolutionary leader, Deng Xiaoping. In 1992 he said, “There is oil in the Middle East; there is rare earth in China.” By then, China, out of necessity, had begun to mine its rare metal resource deposits. Fifteen years earlier, the country had started developing its manufacturing and construction sectors, which led to a growing reliance on imported material supplies. To reduce that dependence, China increased its investment in primary products it found domestically—including mined commodities, mostly minor metals.32 China was often able to produce many rare metals at a 50–60 percent discount due to lower labor costs and environmental standards.
To achieve these goals, China reversed its export incentives for rare earths and other metals during the beginning of the first decade of the 2000s and began export restrictions, including quotas, to stem the overseas flow of resources. Lower domestic prices enticed foreign companies to bring their operations to China for unrestricted access to its abundant rare metal resources base. Echoing Deng Xiaoping, Gan Yong, the head of the China Society of Rare Earths put into words what had long been Chinese policy in 2013: “The real value of rare earths is realized in the final product.”34 China’s unabashed attempt to control the entire high-tech supply chain, from rare earths to finished products, worries many. But no one has outlined the risks quite the way Gerald van den Boogaart has. If one were to call central casting for a German mathematician, it would likely send you Boogaart from the Helmholtz Institute Freiberg for Resource Technology.
See also Rare metals Critical Materials Strategy (Department of Energy), 207 Cukier, Kenneth, 119 Currid, Arch, 255n35 Da Costa, Jeová Moreira, 42 Daido Steel, 113 Dalahai, China, pollution in, 175–77 DDG 51 Aegis destroyers, 168 Decision-making processes, for rare metal usage, 227–28 Deckinger, Ken, 187–88 Defense Logistics Agency, 240n31 Defense sector. See Military (U.S.); Wars Dell Corporation, 14, 224 Democratic Party of Japan, 23–24 Democratic Republic of Congo, rare metals production in, 48 Deng Xiaoping, 32 Dentistry, historical origins, 115 Department of ___. See U.S. Department Design Journal, on Sinclair’s calculator, 118 Developing countries: challenges to metal operations in, 48–49 rise in standard of living in, 10–11 technological improvements in, 218–19 technology use in, 125–27 Diamond, Jared, 10 Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands), territorial dispute over, 22–24 Didymium, 72 Dingnan, China, 173–75 Diodes, 117, 164–65, 277n27, 278n30.
The Despot's Accomplice: How the West Is Aiding and Abetting the Decline of Democracy by Brian Klaas
Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Boris Johnson, citizen journalism, clean water, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, eurozone crisis, failed state, financial independence, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, global pandemic, moral hazard, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, Skype, Steve Jobs, trade route, Transnistria, unemployed young men, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
The more Russia and China succeed themselves, the more other governments will see their style of ruling as a path forward, in contrast to the vision offered by Western liberal democracy. This has become particularly threatening to the Western model in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008–9, because China’s economy grew by 9 per cent in 2009, while the economy of countries like Japan contracted by more than 5 per cent.30 And, until late 2008, “nearly every top Chinese official still lived by Deng Xiaoping’s old advice to build China’s strength while maintaining a low profile in international affairs.”31 Now, Beijing is promoting its pathway of econoÂ�mic, but not political, liberalization as the Beijing Consensus, a Â€ 206 THE BEAR AND THE DRAGON term specifically modeled to parrot and mock the liberal Washington Consensus. China’s government is actively trying to export it. â•… As the strength of their models grows in the eyes of prospective adopters from Latin America to Sub-Saharan Africa, China and Russia are both using a multitude of tools to actively replicate similar governance around the globe.
Â€ Â€ Â€ 256 INDEX Air Force One, 58 Ajax, 22, 38, 230 Alert, Nunavut, 231 Alfonso IX, King of Léon, 30–1 Algeria, 155 Aliyev, Ilham, 82–5 Allende, Salvador, 45–7 amplification effect, 57 Anaconda Copper, 48 Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, 38 Angola, 112–13 Antananarivo, Madagascar, 7, 85, 86 Apple, 20, 83, 135–6, 145, 151 Arab Spring (2011), 2, 10, 12–16, 18, 65, 94, 124–6, 130, 132–3, 163, 168, 218 Argentina, 34–5, 149, 156 Aristide, Jean-Bertrand, 114–15, 117 Aristogeiton, 28 Aristophanes, 29 Aristotle, 29 Armenia, 59–60, 209 Armitage, Richard, 53 Asghabat, Turkmenistan, 25 Ashkelon, Israel, 102 Asian financial crisis (1997), 196 Abbas, Mahmoud, 100 Abbottabad, Pakistan, 53 Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, King of Saudi Arabia, 172 Abdullah II, King of Jordan, 18, 214 Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, 19, 105, 106–7 Abraham, 124 Achilles, 22, 230 Afghanistan, 2, 5, 20, 49, 54, 67, 69, 70, 78, 98, 136–8, 213 1982 arrival of Bin Laden, 78 2001 US-led invasion, 70, 71, 84, 98 2009 presidential election, 70–1 2014 presidential election, 71; power-sharing agreement, 75–6; USAID announces women’s empowerment project, 136–8, 145 Afifi, Omar, 163–4, 247 African-Americans, 176, 207, 250 Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 168 Ahmed, Mohammed, 123–4, 126, 130, 224 AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome), 116, 207 257 INDEX al-Assad, Bashar, 120 AT&T, 135 Athena, 22 Athens, 20, 27–30, 31, 156 Australia, 29–30, 112, 153, 156 Azerbaijan, 20, 82–5, 90, 209, 211, 238 Ba’ath party, 63, 72, 77, 124, 128 Badawi, Raif, 16 Baghdad, Iraq, 72 Bahrain, 59, 155, 209, 225 Bangkok, Thailand, 198, 200, 202, 203, 223 Bangladesh, 106 Bardo Museum attack (2015), 131 Barraket Essahel affair (1991), 123, 126, 224 Basra, Iraq, 72, 73 beheadings, 11, 12, 16, 19 Beijing Consensus, 206–7 Belarus, 3, 19, 60–7, 154, 192–5, 205–6, 212, 218, 222 1991 dissolution of Soviet Union; independence, 192–3 1994 presidential election; Lukashenko comes to power, 193–4 1996 Commonwealth with Russia established, 194 2002 proposal for re-integration with Russia, 194 2004 US passes Belarus Democracy Act, 63, 194; referendum on Lukashenko’s third term; Western sanctions, 63 2006 presidential election, 61; EU asset ban on Lukashenko, 63 2010 presidential election, 61–2, 65; Statkevich impris- 258 oned for organizing protest, 61–2, 222 2015 economic crisis, 64; release of political prisoners, 65, 222; presidential election, 64–5; pressured by Russia to host military base, 65, 195 2016 EU suspends sanctions, 65, 67, 195 Belarus Democracy Act (2004), 63, 194 Belgian Congo (1908–60), 42 Belgium, 43–4, 90, 220 Ben Ali, Zine El Abidine, 13, 123–33, 155 benign dictatorship, 215, 220 Benin, 23, 27, 156 Berlin Wall, 35, 201 Bermudo II “the Gouty”, King of Léon, 30, 231 Bever, James, 101 Bhumibol Adulyadej, King of Thailand, 165 Biamby, Philippe, 117 Bible, 179 Big Brother, 180 Bin Laden, Osama, 18, 50, 52–3, 78 Binti Salan Mustapa, Sumiati, 12 Biya, Paul, 121 Black Hawk Down incident (1993), 116 Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), 211 blackballing, 29 Blagoy, Ivan, 208 Blair, Anthony “Tony”, 6, 92 Blueberry Hill (Fats Domino), 207 Boehner, John, 181 Bohemian Rhapsody (Queen), 121 Boko Haram, 177 Bolivia, 143, 154 INDEX Bolšteins, Ludvigs, 147 Bono (Paul Hewson), 92 Boston University, 111 Botswana, 149 Bourguiba, Habib, 126 BP (British Petroleum), 38 Bradley effect, 176, 250 Brazil, 56, 149, 152, 156 Bremer, Lewis Paul, 72 Brexit, 1 bribery, 170–1 British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), 94 Brunei, 155, 229 bubonic plague, 6 BudgIT, 171 Buenos Aires, Argentina, 34 Bulgaria, 149 Burkina Faso, 177–8 Burundi, 95 Bush, George Herbert Walker, 115, 121, 190 Bush, George Walker, 54–7, 63, 69, 99, 100, 101, 190, 194, 201 Bush, Sarah, 59 Cairo, Egypt, 9–10, 13, 163–4, 218 California, United States, 26, 188, 209 Cambodia, 59 Cameroon, 121 Canada, 94, 112, 143, 153, 155, 156, 230–1 Caravana de la Muerte, 47 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 52, 73 Carothers, Thomas, 52, 73, 141, 144, 189 Carter Center, 89, 238 Carter, James Earl “Jimmy”, 116, 120, 238 Caspian Sea, 84 Castro, Fidel, 49 Castro, Raul, 49 caudillos, 33 Cédras, Raoul, 115–20 censorship, 161–3, 165 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 20, 39–49, 59, 98, 201, 207, 208 Chan-ocha, Prayuth, 164, 203 Charles I, King of England, Scotland and Ireland, 31 Chemonics, 58, 138 Chicago, Illinois, 182 Chile, 27, 36, 38, 45–8, 153, 220, 225 Chiluba, Frederick, 190 China, 4, 23–7, 105–6, 109, 168– 70, 176, 190, 191–2, 196–212, 215–16, 218, 221, 223, 229 1958 launch of Great Leap Forward, 24 1990 Deng Xiaoping’s “24-Character Strategy”, 206 1992 propaganda-industry tax introduced, 209 2003 SARS outbreak, 25–6 2013 endorsement of Azerbaijani election, 211; monitoring of Malagasy election, 211 2014 Umbrella Movement protests in Hong Kong, 168–9, 176, 221; rail deal with Thailand, 203 2016 Lunar New Year celebrations, 208; Mong Kok riots, 169 China Central Television (CCTV), 207–9 Chow, Holden, 169 Christianity, 105, 179 Churchill, Winston, 22, 190, 215 259 INDEX Ciftci, Bilgin, 20, 161–3, 165, 176 citizen journalism, 135 citizen participation, 27 Citizens United v.
Federal Election Commission, 185, 188 City on a Hill, 10, 35, 179, 188, 189 Cleisthenes, 28 climate change, 209 Clinton, Hillary, 5–6, 112, 178, 190 Clinton, William “Bill”, 52, 92, 102, 112, 115–16, 184, 190 Cobra Gold, 201 Cold War, 1, 20, 35–6, 37–50, 55, 66, 75, 81, 93, 149, 150, 200–1, 204, 221 Colombia, 27, 33, 171, 189 Commonwealth of Independent States Observation Mission (CISEMO), 211 Communist Party of China, 208 of Moldova, 195 of Thailand, 199 Community College of Denver, 209 Confucius Institutes, 209 Congo, 20, 36, 38, 42–4, 47, 48, 95, 121 Congress, US, 32, 33, 35, 184, 194 Connecticut Compromise, 32–3 constitutions, 31–2, 150–1, 190, 197 Contadora Island, Panama, 117 COPPPAL (Conferencia Permanente de Partidos Políticos de América Latina y el Caribe), 211 Corner House, Riga, 147–8, 160, 225 corruption, 73, 82, 99, 107, 139, 260 170–1, 197, 200, 201, 209, 210, 219 Côte d’Ivoire, 3, 19, 104–10, 111, 119 2000 presidential election, 104 2002 outbreak of civil war, 104 2010 presidential election, 104–5; outbreak of violence, 105–6, 119; Gbabgbo offered asylum in the US, 111 2011 UN/French intervention, 106, 108–10; Gbabgbo extradited to ICC, 106, 109, 119 2015 presidential election, 110 Council of Europe, 84 Council of Five Hundred, 29 counterfeit democracies, 3, 6–9, 20, 23, 33–4, 52, 70, 73, 79, 82–90, 158–9, 173, 175, 204, 210, 216–17, 220, 223 Crimea, 64, 65 crisis of democracy, 180 Critias, 29 Croatia, 75 Cuba, 45, 49–50, 176 curse of low expectations, see Madagascar Effect Daily Show, The, 53 Dark Ages, 30, 219 Dayton, Mark, 186–7 DDoS (Distributed Denial-ofService), 168 death squads, 47, 114, 117 Delian League, 29 democracy deficit, 180 democracy promotion industry, 58–60, 138 democracy wars, 67, 69–79, 220 Democratic Party, 35, 58, 84, 92, 124, 142, 182–8 INDEX Democratic Republic of the Congo, see Congo demos, 27, 28 Deng Xiaoping, 206 Denmark, 77, 220 Denver, Colorado, 209 Department for International Development (DFID), 59 Department of Defense, 115 Detention Site Green, Udon Thani, 201 Development Alternatives Inc., 138 Development Assistance Committee (DAC), 58 Devlin, Larry, 43 Diamond, Larry, 171 Dictator’s Learning Curve, The (Dobson), 210 digital communications, 49, 125, 161–75, 207, 208, 221, 223 Dirección de Inteligencia Nacional (DINA), 48 direct democracy, 28–9 disabled rights, 141, 144 disinformation, 207–8 Dobson, Will, 210 “Don’t Forget Me” (GooGoosha), 140 Dubai, 82 Duékoué, Côte d’Ivoire, 105 Dulles, Alan, 41 Durack, Western Australia, 29–30 Duvalier, Jean-Claude “Baby Doc”, 114 Ebola, 184 echo chamber effect, 165 Egypt, 6, 9–10, 13–16, 27, 88, 155, 163–4, 225 1987 US aid payments begin, 14 2001 EU Association Agreement, 155 2008 Afifi exiled to US, 163 2009 Clinton describes Mubaraks as ‘friends of my family’, 6; Obama’s Cairo speech, 9–10, 218 2011 Tahrir Square protests begin, 10, 13, 163–4; Mubarak ousted, 13, 164 2012 Morsi elected president, 14; anti-Morsi demonstrations begin, 164, 247 2013 coup d’état; el-Sisi comes to power, 14–16, 88, 164; Saudi Arabia announces aid package, 15 Eid al-Kabir, 124 Eisenhower, Dwight David, 38, 43 elections campaign finance, 185–8, 238 foreign aid/intervention, 97–110, 143 “free and fair”, 8, 14, 88–90, 102, 159, 193 gerrymandering, 180–5, 188, 251 grade inflation, 88–9, 158, 159 inclusivity, 24, 129–31, 221 observation/monitoring, 8, 65, 81, 83–4, 88–90, 102, 158–9, 173–4, 178, 211, 223 polling, 174–6 respect for, 5, 37–48 rigging of, 22–3, 34, 61, 63–4, 70–1, 83–5, 87, 112, 158–9, 166, 210–11 short-term thinking, 26, 54, 56 turnout, 180, 184 Electoral Integrity Project, 189, 238 Elizabethville, Congo, 43 “emerging democracy”, 88 Emory University, 136 261 INDEX “End of History”, 163, 214 English Civil War (1642–51), 31 Ennahda party, 126–8 Equatorial Guinea, 6, 11, 121, 173, 220 Erdoggan, Recep Tayyip, 20, 161–3, 176 Eritrea, 11, 24 Estonia, 17, 149, 151 Ethiopia, 27 Eton College, Berkshire, 202 European Commission, 150 European Parliament, 84, 180 European Partnership for Democracy (EPD), 58 European Union (EU), 2, 3, 56, 61–3, 65–7, 84, 90, 100, 143, 145, 148–56, 160, 180, 195, 214, 223, 225, 247 1999 European Parliament elections, 180 2004 Eastern Bloc countries accede to Union, 148–9 2005 intervention in Palestinian election campaign, 100 2006 asset ban on Lukashenko government, 63 2008 aid given for Ghanaian election, 143 2009 Eurozone crisis begins, 180, 190 2013 endorsement of Azerbaijani election, 84; endorsement of Malagasy election, 90 2014 Riga designated European Capital of Culture, 148, 225 2015 Riga summit; Juncker slaps Orbán, 150 2016 Belarus sanctions suspended, 65, 67, 195; Zimbabwe sanctions suspended, 247; UK Â€ 262 holds membership referendum, 1 Eurozone crisis, 180, 190 Facebook, 125, 161–3, 165, 168, 172, 223 Falls Church, Virginia, 163 famine, 24 Fatah, 99–102 Fats Domino, 207 Ferjani, Said, 125–33, 142, 156, 221, 224 Fidesz Party, 150–2 financial crisis (2008–9), 185, 206 FixMyStreet, 171 Florida, United States, 117 Forces Nouvelles, 106 Ford, Gerald, 45 Foreign Affairs, 53 foreign aid, 14–15, 47, 49, 52, 57, 89, 90, 92, 93, 95, 100–1 Fourteen Points (1918), 35 France, 2, 33, 44, 55–6, 58, 72, 89, 106, 108–10, 115, 129, 214, 225 “free and fair”, 8, 14, 88–90, 102, 159, 193 free speech, 94, 103, 161–3, 165, 188 free trade zones, 152–60 Freedom House, 139, 140, 189 Friedrich Ebert Foundation, 189 Front Populaire Ivorien, 105 FSB (Federal’naya sluzhba bezopasnosti), 61 Fukuyama, Francis, 74, 163, 214 fungibilty, 95 Gaddafi, Muammar, 24, 76–9, 102, 113, 129 Gambia, The, 121 Gandhi, Jennifer, 136 INDEX Gaza, Palestine, 100–1, 240–1 Gbabgbo, Laurent, 105–10, 111, 119 General Motors, 48 Geneva Convention, 177 Geneva, Switzerland, 140 George III, King of the United Kingdom, 31 Georgia, 143 Geraldton, Western Australia, 30 Germany, 17, 23, 35, 44, 56, 58, 74–5, 103–4, 147–8, 165, 189, 201, 204, 208, 213, 223 Gerry, Elbridge, 181–2 gerrymandering, 180–5, 188, 251 Ghana, 17, 143, 144, 171 Ghani, Rula, 137 globalization, 153 Globe & Mail, 94 golden handcuffs, 111, 119–21, 154 golden parachutes, 19, 116–21 Gollum, 20, 161–3, 165, 176 Google, 164 GooGoosha (Gulnara Karimova), 140, 145 Government Organized NonGovernmental Organizations (GONGOs), 209–10, 212 grade inflation, 88, 99, 158, 159 Great Leap Forward (1958–61), 24 Greece, 20, 21, 22, 27–30, 31, 156, 230 Green Revolution (2009), 135–6, 166–8 gridlock, 184–5, 187 Guardian, 166 gun regulation, 186–7 gunboat diplomacy, 116, 118, 120 Gutiérrez, Luis, 182 Guyana, 171, 220 Guys and Dolls, 40 Hague, William, 77 Haiti, 114–21 Hamas, 99–104, 241 Harmodius, 28 Harvard University, 45 health care, 184–5 Henry IV “the Impotent”, King of Castile and Léon, 30, 231 Herodotus, 29 Higiro, Robert, 94 Hipparchus, 28 Hitler, Adolf, 23, 103–4, 165 HIV (human immunodeficiency virus), 116, 207 Hobart, Tasmania, 153 homosexuality, 12, 20 Hong Kong, 168–70, 176, 221 House of Representatives, 33, 181 human rights, 10, 11, 52, 54, 57, 64, 113, 118, 139, 209, 213 Humphrey, Hubert, 21 Hungary, 150–2, 160, 171 Hussein, Saddam, 63, 72, 73, 79, 124, 156–7 I Paid a Bribe, 170–1 Ibragimbekov, Rustam, 82 Iceland, 88 Iglesias, Julio, 140 “illiberal democracy”, 227 Illinois, United States, 182–3 Iloniaina, Alain, 222–3 imihigo program, 93 Immunization of the Revolution, 127 inclusion, 24, 129–31 India, 56, 98, 152, 156, 170–1, 172, 220 Indonesia, 27, 156, 218 Indyk, Martin, 102 insidious model effect, 46, 48 Inter-Commission Working Group 263 INDEX on International Cooperation, 211 Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), 52, 53 International Criminal Court (ICC), 106, 109, 118, 119 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 105 International Republican Institute (IRI), 58, 142 Internet, 49, 125, 161–75, 207, 208, 221, 223 iPad, 151 iPhones, 20, 83, 135–6, 145 Iran, 26, 30, 36, 38, 47, 48, 69, 98, 117, 135–6, 145, 208, 232 1951 nationalization of AngloIranian Oil Company, 38 1953 Operation Ajax; Mossadegh ousted, 38–42, 98, 208 1979 Islamic Revolution, 42, 117, 216 2009 intervention in Lebanese election, 98; presidential election; Green Revolution protests, 135–6, 166–8 2010 VOA announces “citizen journalism” iPhone app, 135–6, 145 2015 nuclear deal, 26 Iraq, 2, 5, 20, 49, 63, 67, 72–5, 77, 78, 79, 98, 124, 128, 129, 133, 156–7, 198, 213 1979 Saddam comes to power, 72, 129 1990 invasion of Kuwait, 156 2003 US-led invasion, 63, 72–3, 77, 84, 98, 156, 201, 234; de-Ba’athification campaign, 72, 77, 124, 128 2006 formation of al-Maliki government, 73 264 2015 IS execute election officials, 74 Ireland, 90, 217 Islam, 11, 12, 16, 99, 105, 123–6, 129, 131, 177, 218 Islamic State (IS), 74, 78, 131 Islamism, 99, 123–6, 129, 131, 177 Israel, 14, 99–104 Italy, 98, 192 Jackson, Peter, 162 Jammeh,Yahya, 121 Japan, 17, 24, 35, 56, 58, 74–5, 89, 112, 154, 156, 164, 204, 206, 217, 218, 220 al-Jazeera, 76 Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 172 Joan of Portugal, Queen consort of Castile, 231 Jobs, Steve, 151 Johnson, Boris, 202 Jordan, 18, 60, 155 Juncker, Jean-Claude, 150 Kabila, Joseph, 121 Kabul, Afghanistan, 70 Kagame, Paul, 6, 91–6 Kagan, Robert, 217–18 Kakul Military Academy, 53 Kallel, Abdallah, 124 Kant, Immanuel, 118 Karbala, Iraq, 201 Karegeya, Patrick, 94 Karimov, Islam, 139–40, 142, 154 Karimova, Gulnara, 139–40, 145 Karnataka, India, 170 Karoui, Nébil, 131 Karzai, Hamid, 70 Katanga, Congo, 43–4 Keane, John, 30 INDEX Kennedy, John Fitzgerald, 11, 35–6, 55, 190, 192 Kenya, 220 KGB (Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti), 3, 61–2, 147–8, 194, 225 Khan, Rana Sanaullah, 52 Khomeini, Ruhollah, 167 Kim Jong-un, 136, 181 Kingdom of Ebla, 28 Kipling, Rudyard, 69 Kissinger, Henry, 44–7, 214 knee-jerk reactions, 26, 55 Koch Brothers, 185–6 Konrad Adenauer Foundation, 58, 189 Kounalakis, Eleni, 151 kratos, 27 Kununurra, Western Australia, 30 Kuwait, 156, 229 Kyrgyzstan, 185 2011 NATO-led intervention, 76–7; death of Gaddafi, 76–7, 113 2013 Political Isolation Law, 77, 128 LINE, 164–5 Literary Digest, 174 lobbying, 186–7 local-level democracy, 3, 18, 169–73 locusts, 6–7 London, England, 132–3 long-term thinking, 4, 46, 48, 51–67, 138, 141, 234 Lord of the Rings (Tolkien), 20, 161–3, 165, 176 “Luck Be a Lady Tonight”, 40 Lukashenko, Alexander, 61–7, 154, 193–5, 206, 222 Lumumba, Patrice, 42–4 Lumumbashi, Congo, 43 Lake, Anthony, 117 Landon, Alf, 174 Langouste (Ramakavélo), 87 Laos, 200 Latin Earmuffs, 182 Latvia, 147–50, 151–2, 154, 160, 225 League of Democracies, 152–60, 212 Lebanon, 98 Léon, 30–1, 231 Léopoldville, Congo, 43 Levy, Phil, 157 Libya, 2, 5, 20, 24, 49, 67, 69, 76–9, 102, 113, 128, 129, 133, 156, 213 1969 coup d’état; Gaddafi comes to power, 78, 113, 129 2008 Rice makes visit, 76 MacCann, William, 34 Madagascar, 3, 6–9, 17, 20, 59, 85–91, 96, 200, 220, 222–3, 234–5 1991 Panorama Convention, 87 1992 presidential election, 87 1993 population census, 89 2006 presidential election, 85–6 2009 coup d’état; Rajoelina comes to power, 6, 90 2012 Rajoelina announces capture of bandits’ sorcerer, 7 2013 general election, 8, 89–90, 211, 222–3 Madagascar Effect, 6–8, 17, 81, 96, 159, 204, 234–5 Madison, James, 31–2 Malaysia, 153, 218 al-Maliki, Nouri, 73–4 Mao Zedong, 23, 24 265 INDEX marketplace of ideas, 24, 219 Mauritius, 220 May, Theresa, 26 McCain, John, 77 McMahon, Michael, 83 McSpedon, Joe, 49 Megara, 156 Mejora Tu Escuela, 171 El Mercurio, 47 Merkel, Angela, 208 Mesopotamia, 28 Mexico, 27, 149, 155, 156, 171, 172, 178 MI6, 43 Miami, Florida, 117 Miloševicc, Slobodan, 98, 120 Minnesota, United States, 21, 186–7 Minsk, Belarus, 19, 61–2, 66, 192, 193 Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 119 Mobutu, Joseph-Desiré, 43–4 Mogadishu, Somalia, 116 Moghaddam, Ismail Ahmadi, 167 Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Shah of Iran, 39–42, 117 Moldova, 195–6 Mondale, Walter, 21 Mong Kok riots (2016), 169 Mongolia, 17, 30, 189 Morjane, Kamel, 130 Morocco, 155, 171 Morsi, Mohammed, 14, 15, 164, 247 Moscow, Russia, 210 Mossadegh, Mohammed, 38–42, 43, 232 Mosul, Iraq, 72, 73 al-Moubadara, 130 Mubarak, Hosni, 6, 13, 164 Mugabe, Robert, 112–13, 157–8 Mugenzi, Rene Claudel, 94–5, 189 Â€ 266 Muhirwa, Alice, 93 Muñiz de Urquiza, María, 90 Munyuza, Dan, 94 Musharraf, Pervez, 51–7 Myanmar, 218, 225 Nasiri, Nematollah, 40 Nation, The, 198 National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), 197 National Democratic Institute (NDI), 58, 92, 142 National Endowment for Democracy (NED), 58, 60, 144, 247 National Rifle Association (NRA), 186–7 Native Americans, 32, 33 Nawabshah, Pakistan, 51 Nazi Germany (1933–45), 23, 44, 74–5, 103–4, 147–8, 165 Nepal, 98 Netherlands, 58, 89, 143 Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy, 58 New Stanford Hospital, Palo Alto, 26 NewYork Times, 71, 93, 185–6 New Zealand, 112, 156, 209 Nicaragua, 24, 98 Nidaa Tounes, 131 Niger, 185 Nigeria, 171, 172 Nixon, Richard, 44–7 Niyazov, Saparmurat, 25 Nobel Prize, 18, 24, 131, 156, 163 non-alignment, 43 non-governmental organizations (NGOs), 58–60, 141–2, 144, 158, 209–10, 212, 238 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 45, 55, 77 INDEX North Carolina, United States, 183 North Korea, 4, 11, 136, 138, 144, 173, 176, 181 Norway, 24, 77, 205, 219 nuclear power/weapons, 26, 192 Nunavut, Canada, 153, 230–1 Nunn, Sam, 116 Nuristan, Afghanistan, 70 Nyaklyayew, Uladzimir, 61–2, 65 Nyamwasa, Faustin Kayumba, 94 Obama, Barack, 6, 9–10, 14, 49, 54, 55, 57–8, 76, 96, 111, 183, 204, 205, 218 Obiang, Teodoro, 6, 121 Odysseus, 22, 153 oil, 4, 11, 16, 24, 84, 192, 229 olive oil, 125 Operation Ajax (1953), 38–42, 98, 208 Operation Desert Storm (1991), 156 Operation Enduring Freedom (2001–14), 70 Operation Uphold Democracy (1994–5), 116 Orbán, Viktor, 150–2 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), 64 Ortega, Daniel, 98 Orwell, George, 15, 101, 199 Oswald, Lee Harvey, 192 Ouattara, Alassane, 105–10, 119 Oxford University, 198, 202 OxfordGirl, 166 Pakistan, 18, 50–7, 70, 220, 233 Palestine, 99–104, 108, 240–1 Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), 99 Panama, 117 Panorama Convention (1991), 87 Papua New Guinea, 188 parliaments, 31 partisan engagement, 99–104 Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC), 156 People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), 197, 202 Pericles, 29 Persia, 28 Peru, 153 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 33 Philippines, 218 Pinochet, Augusto, 47–8, 225 Piromya, Kasit, 204–5 Plateau Dokui, Abidjan, 107 Plato, 29 Poland, 201 Political Isolation Law (2013), 77, 128 polling, 174–6 Pomerantsev, Peter, 210 Pongsudhirak, Thitinan, 165 Port-au-Prince, Haiti, 117 Portugal, 218, 231 Pouraghayi, Saeedah, 167 Powell, Colin, 116, 120 Préval, René, 117 Price, Melissa, 30 Princeton University, 186 prisoner’s dilemma, 200 process engagement, 99–100 propaganda-industry tax, 209 protectionism, 177 proto-democracy, 28 Public Diplomacy of the Public Chamber of Russia Elections, 211 Pul-i-Charki, Kabul, 71 Putin, Vladimir, 63, 64–5, 194–5, 204, 207, 214 267 INDEX al-Qaeda, 18, 50, 52–3, 55, 78, 177, 234 Qatar, 155, 229 Qatif, Saudi Arabia, 11, 16 Queen, 121 racism, 176, 218, 250 Rajoelina, Andry, 6 Ramadan, 126 Ramakavélo, Desiré-Philippe, 86–7 Rao, Bhaskar, 170 Rassemblement des Républicains, 105 Ratchaburi, Thailand, 199 Ravalomanana, Marc, 6 Reagan, Ronald, 35–6, 55 realpolitik, 4, 45, 48, 98, 104 refugees, 208 representative democracy, 30–3 Republican Party, 39, 58, 79, 124, 142, 181, 182–8 Rever, Judi, 94 Riahi, Taghi, 39–40 Rice, Condoleeza, 76, 102 Riga, Latvia, 147–8, 150, 160, 225 rock lobster, 87 Rojanaphruk, Pravit, 198–9, 221, 223–4 Romania, 149, 209 Rome, Ancient (753 BC–476 AD), 21, 30 Romney, Mitt, 112 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 39, 174 Roosevelt, Kermit, 38–40, 208 Roosevelt, Theodore “Teddy”, 39 de Rosas, Juan Manuel, 34–5 Roskam, Peter 183 rule of law, 10, 27, 73, 77, 136, 159, 209, 218 Rumsfeld, Donald, 145 Russia Today (RT), 207–9 268 Russian Federation, 24, 27, 60–1, 63–5, 82, 106, 140, 149, 190, 191–6, 204, 205–12, 214, 221, 229 1996 Commonwealth with Belarus established, 194 2002 proposal for re-integration of Belarus, 194 2005 support for Moldovan opposition on Transnistria, 195–6; Russia Today established, 207 2010 Putin sings Fats Domino’s Blueberry Hill, 207 2013 endorsement of Azerbaijani election, 211 2014 annexation of Crimea; intervention in Ukraine, 64, 65; RT reports “genocide” in Ukraine, 207; RT reports CIA behind Ebola outbreak, 207 2015 NED banned, 60; pressure on Belarus to host military base, 65, 195 2016 RT report on rape of “Lisa” in Germany, 208; Putin praised by Trump, 214 Rwanda, 6, 20, 91–6, 120, 185, 189, 215, 216 Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), 91 San Diego State University, 209 sanctions, 52, 62–5, 67, 103, 106, 135–6, 145, 156–8, 160, 195, 247, 253 Sandinista National Liberation Front, 98 Sandy Hook massacre (2012), 186 dos Santos, José Eduardo, 112–13 Sarkozy, Nicolas, 108 INDEX SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), 25–6 Saudi Arabia, 5–6, 9–12, 15–16, 19–20, 85, 98, 138, 144, 200, 216, 229 1962 slavery abolished, 11 2009 intervention in Lebanese election, 98; children sentenced to prison and lashes for stealing exam papers, 11, 16; Jeddah floods, 172 2010 Indonesian maid mutilated by employer, 11, 12; arms deal with US, 10–12 2011 Qatif protests, 16 2013 aid package to Egypt announced, 15; purchase of US naval craft announced, 16; Badawi sentenced to prison and lashes, 16 Saudi Arabia Effect, 5, 9, 16, 85, 138, 200 Schneider, René, 45 School of the Americas, 115 Seattle, Washington, 77 Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), 43 Sen, Amartya, 24 Senate, US, 32–3, 187 Senegal, 42, 121 September 11 attacks (2001), 18, 52–3, 55, 70 Serbia, 98, 120 Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 211 Sharif, Nawaz, 51–2, 233 Shinawatra, Thaksin, 196, 199, 201, 202, 205 Shinawatra,Yingluck, 198 short-term thinking, 3–4, 26, 46, 48, 51–67, 120, 138, 141, 234 Shushkevich, Stanislav, 192–3 Siberia, 147, 148 Sidick, Koné Abou Bakary, 107–9 Sierra Leone, 88, 171, 209 Singapore, 23, 24, 27, 93, 155, 215, 216, 217, 229 Siripaiboon, Thanakorn, 165 el-Sisi, Abdel Fattah, 15 Skujenieks, Knuts, 148 Skype, 62 slavery, 11, 29, 32 social media, 49–50, 125, 161–70, 173, 176, 199, 207, 208, 223 Socrates, 29 Solon, 28 Somalia, 42, 116 Sophocles, 29 Sopko, John, 137 Sousse attacks (2015), 131 South Africa, 27, 94, 157, 189 South Korea, 17, 27, 112, 152, 156, 218 Soviet Union (1922–91), 1, 22–3, 35–6, 37–50, 61, 64, 82, 121, 147–8, 150, 160, 192–4, 201, 204, 206–7 Spain, 218 Sparta, 28, 29 St John’s College, Oxford, 202 Stalin, Joseph, 23 Stanford University, 171 State Department, 11, 15, 54, 202 state power, 27 Statkevich, Mikalai, 61–2, 65, 222 Stewart, Jon, 53 Sting (Gordon Sumner), 140 Stockholm Syndrome, 199 Sudan, 206 Sukondhapatipak, Werachon 198 Sundaravej, Samak, 197 Super PACs, 185 Supreme Court, US, 185, 188 Sweden, 92, 220 269 INDEX Switzerland, 118, 140, 205 Syria, 78, 120, 131, 198, 208, 217, 224, 225 Szájer, József, 151 Tahrir Square, Cairo, 10, 13, 163–4 Taiwan, 27, 218 Taliban, 18, 52, 56, 71, 138 tame democracy promotion, 59 Taming of Democracy Assistance, The (Bush), 59 Tarakhel Mohammadi, 70–1 Tasmania, Australia, 153 Tasting and Grumbling, 197 Tea Party, 185 terrorism, 11, 16, 18, 19, 20, 26, 52–3, 55, 63, 70, 78, 97, 100, 101, 131, 156, 201, 234 Tetra Tech, 138 Thailand, 3, 19, 27, 154, 164–5, 196–206, 212, 221, 223–4, 253 1973 pro-democracy uprising, 199 1976 student protests, 199 1982 launch of Cobra Gold exercises with US, 201 2003 troops dispatched to Iraq, 201 2006 coup d’état, 196, 197 2008 judicial coup, 196, 197, 202, 253 2010 protests and crackdown, 202 2014 NCPO coup d’état, 164, 196–206, 221; junta gives out free haircuts, 154; rail deal with China, 203; junta releases LINE “values stickers”, 164–5 2015 man arrested for insulting Tongdaeng, 165 270 2016 constitutional referendum, 197, 223 Thirty Tyrants, 29 Thucydides, 28, 29 time horizon, 55 Tobruk, Libya, 77 Togo, 170, 177–8 Tolkien, John Ronald Reuel, 20, 161–3, 165, 176 Tongdaeng, 165 torture, 11, 28, 43, 48, 52, 124–7, 132, 139, 141, 222, 224 Trans-Pacific Partnership, 153 Transnistria, 196 transparency, 26, 82, 170, 174, 212, 218 Tripoli, Libya, 77 Trojan War, 22 Trump, Donald, 1, 20, 25, 79, 178, 180, 187, 188, 204, 205 Tudeh Party, 41, 232 Tunisia, 12–13, 17, 18, 19, 27, 65, 77, 123–33, 142, 143, 144, 155, 156, 209, 218, 221, 224–5 1987 coup d’état; Ben Ali comes to power, 124, 126, 129 1991 Barraket Essahel affair, 123, 126, 224 1995 EU Association Agreement, 155 2010 self-immolation of Bouazizi; protests begin, 12, 126, 224 2011 ousting of Ben Ali, 13, 124–6, 130 2014 assembly rejects bill on political exclusion, 128; law on rehabilitation and recognition of torture victims, 224; presidential election, 130 2015 Bardo Museum and Sousse attacks, 131, 156; National INDEX Dialogue Quartet awarded Nobel Peace Prize, 18, 131 Tunisia’s Call, 131 Turkey, 20, 27, 39, 149, 161–3, 165, 176 Turkmenistan, 11, 25, 26, 138, 144, 154 Twitter, 49, 162, 163, 166, 168, 176, 199, 208 U2, 92 Udon Thani, Thailand, 201 Uganda, 166, 176 Ukraine, 2, 27, 64, 65, 171, 198, 207, 213 Umbrella Movement (2014), 168, 176, 221 United Arab Emirates (UAE), 229 United Kingdom (UK), 1–3, 31, 33, 38, 43–4, 56, 58, 71–2, 92, 94–5, 126, 129, 132–3, 156, 166, 171–2, 180, 189, 202, 214 1707 Acts of Union, 31 1947 Churchill’s statement on democracy, 22, 190, 215 1951 Mossadegh nationalizes Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, 38 1987 Ferjani arrives in exile, 126 1999 European Parliament election, 180 2003 invasion of Iraq, 72–3 2009 OxfordGirl tweets on Iranian Green Revolution, 166; Blair meets with Kagame, 6, 92 2011 intervention in Libya, 77; Kagame appears on BBC radio; threat against Mugenzi, 94–5, 189 2012 launch of FixMyStreet, 171 2016 EU membership referendum, 1 United Nations (UN), 104, 105, 106, 108–10, 118, 130, 132, 140, 152 United States (US) 1787 Constitutional Convention, 31 1812 redrawing of Massachusetts senate election districts, 181–2 1869 Wyoming grants women vote, 33 1870 non-white men receive vote, 33 1913 Seventeenth Amendment enacted, 32 1917 Wilson’s “safe for democracy” speech, 35 1918 Wilson’s Fourteen Points, 35 1920 women receive vote, 33 1924 protections to ensure Native American voting rights, 33 1936 presidential election, 174 1948 CIA intervention in Italian election, 98 1953 Operation Ajax; Mossadegh ousted in Iran, 38–42, 98, 208 1960 plot to assassinate Lumumba with poisoned toothpaste, 43 1961 Foreign Assistance Act, 14–15 1962 Saudi Arabia pressured into abolishing slavery, 11; Cuban Missile Crisis, 50 1963 Kennedy’s Berlin speech, 35; assassination of Kennedy, 192 271 INDEX 1965 protections to ensure minority voting rights, 33 1973 ousting of Allende in Chile, 47 1982 launch of Cobra Gold exercises with Thailand, 201 1987 Reagan’s Berlin speech, 35; aid payments to Egypt begin, 14 1988 Reagan’s “city on a hill” speech, 10, 35, 179, 188, 189 1990 intervention in Nicaraguan election, 98 1991 launch of Operation Desert Storm in Iraq, 156 1992 presidential and House of Representatives elections, 183–4 1993 Clinton assumes office, 115; Battle of Mogadishu, 116 1994 launch of Operation Uphold Democracy in Haiti, 116; Cessna crash at White House, 116; Cédras given “golden parachute”, 116–17 1997 USAID Cambodia claims to have “exceeded expectations”, 59 1999 Pakistan urged to return to democracy, 52, 53 2001 September 11 attacks, 18, 52–3, 55, 70; cooperation with Pakistan begins, 52–3, 55; invasion of Afghanistan, 70, 71, 84, 98 2002 Bush announces new approach for Israel/Palestine conflict, 99 2003 invasion of Iraq, 63, 72–3, 77, 84, 98, 156, 201, 234 272 2004 Belarus Democracy Act, 63, 194 2005 Senate vote on armorpiercing bullet ban, 187; intervention in Palestinian election campaign, 99–104 2006 Musharraf appears on The Daily Show, 53 2008 Afifi arrives in exile, 163, 247; Rice’s visit to Libya, 76 2009 Obama assumes office, 55, 57; Clinton describes Mubaraks as “friends of my family”, 6; Obama’s Cairo speech, 9–10, 218; military helicopter drops ballot boxes in Afghanistan, 70; Kagame receives Clinton Global Citizen award, 92 2010 VOA announces “citizen journalism” app for Iran, 135, 145; Citizens United v.
The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War by Robert D. Kaplan
Berlin Wall, clean water, Deng Xiaoping, edge city, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Honoré de Balzac, mass immigration, Peace of Westphalia, Ronald Reagan, Thomas Malthus, trade route, unemployed young men, Yom Kippur War
(The Republican majority in Congress and the "religious right" are thus not true conservatives.) A true conservative is in fact a hesitant progressive: he or she seeks to slow change when society is reforming too fast and to instigate moderate change when society is not reforming at all. Burke's writings are the epitome of this search for pacing. I imagine that Kissinger's tolerance of the late Chinese ruler Deng Xiaoping and his successor, Jiang Zemin, can be explained by the fact that the two Chinese dictators represented enlightened conservatism within their own cultural and historical limits. Both fos tered gradual but unmistakable reform that has bettered the material lives of tens of millions of people. At the same time, they averted the kind of revolutionary up heaval that might result from instituting democracy across a vast and geographically riven landscape in which less than 10 percent of the population is middle-class.
., The Twenty Years' Crisis, 170,181 Carter, Jimmy, 103,139 Castlereagh, Robert Stewart, 130,138, 143,144 Catholicism, 122,135 Caucasus, 28-29, 38, 43, 44, 47,114, 144 Ceausescu, Nicolae, 114 Central America, 25 Central Asia, 20, 27, 28, 50 I N D E X Central Intelligence Agency, post-Cold War role of, 105,109,110 Chamberlain, Neville, 131 Chersonites, 114 Chile, 63,133 China, 25,134,146 authoritarianism in, 64-65, 71 crime in, 26 Cultural Revolution, 149 economy, 25, 65, 71 environmental problems, 25-26 human rights, 65, 99,139 Inner, 50 Nixon/Kissinger policy in, 132-33, 148-50 population growth, 25-26 Christianity, 6, 59-60, 79, 94, 98,112 Edward Gibbon on, 115-16,135 Orthodox, 28, 29, 59 in West Africa, 6,15 Christopher, Warren, 127 Churchill, Winston, 170 Clarke, Jonathan, "Searching for the Soul of American Foreign Policy," 139-40 Claudius, 113 Clausewitz, Carl von, 46 climatic change, 52-54,106 Clinton, Bill, 20,140,147,157 cocoa economy, 10 Cold War, 20,102,144,154,171,177 democracies after, 60-98 end of, 18,40, 60, 69, 71,103,141, 154,171,173,177 foreign policy, 20-21,103,148-51, 154,171 peace, 171,177-78 Colombia, 49, 63,177 colonialism, 38-39,102 and cartography, 38-40 French, 10-14,148,158 in West Africa, 10-15 communalism, 6 communism, 13, 49, 73 end of, 60, 69, 71,144 / 189 computers, 86, 93 Comte, Auguste, 180 Conakry, 9,17-18 Congo, 70 Congressional Black Caucus, 55 Conrad, Joseph, 159 Heart of Darkness, 159,160 Nostromo: A Tale of the Seaboard, 157-68 conservatism, 119,136,181 Constantinople, 33 Coon, Carleton Stevens, 35 corporate power, 175 rise of, 80-95, 96 crime, 4 in China, 26 as human trait, 175-76 and Turkey, 32, 41 in United States, 84-86 and war, 48-49,99-104 in West Africa, 4-7,12-15, 26,49, 55 Croatia, 47,102 Cromwell, Oliver, 68, 73, 79, 95 cultural and racial conflict, 19, 26-37, 55-56,122 in Balkans, 29-30, 99-103 and future of war, 43-50 and Islam, 28-30 and mass murder, 99-104 in Turkey, 28-29, 30-37 in United States, 54-56, 87, 94,171 currency, 12-13 Cyprus, 144 Czechoslovakia, 13, 65, 69,106,131 D deforestation, 7, 8-9,18, 20, 25, 52 de Gaulle, Charles, 148 democracy, 21, 59-98,119,122,163, 141,180 in Africa, 62, 63, 66-71, 77-78, 81 early American, 61, 67-68, 95 and ethnic politics, 68-70,102 in Haiti, 65-66,157-58 and hybrid regimes, 78-80, 94, 96,98 190 / I N D E X democracy (cont'd) in India, 51, 71 in Latin America, 63-64, 70, 75 and oligarchy, 95-98 post-Cold War, 60-98 and rise of corporate power, 80-95, 96 in Rome, 113-14 in Russia, 64, 67 and shrinking domain of "politics," 83-89 and umpire regimes, 89-95 value-neutrality of, 61-72 and "world government," 80-83 Deng Xiaoping, 136 Deudney, Daniel, 23 Diana, Princess of Wales, 173 Diani, Marco, 158 Dickens, Charles, 17 Bleak House, 119-20 Diocletian, 113 disease, 3, 20, 51, 57,130,176 in Africa, 3, 7, 9,16-18,121 see also specific diseases displaced-persons camps, 8 Doe, Samuel, 48 Dreiser, Theodore, 87 drugs, 86 cartels, 7,13, 50, 78,106 smuggling, 57,107,109,176,177 Dubrovnik, 47 Dulles, John Foster, 129 E Eagleburger, Lawrence, 127 East Germany, 13,103 Economist, The, 128 economy, 45,46, 67, 80, 96,116 in China, 25, 65, 71 and corporate power, 80-95 in India, 51, 71,120 in Israel, 41 in West Africa, 10,12,13,15 world, 76-77, 80-83,182-83 education, 8, 45,157 and corporate power, 85 political science, 158,167-68 in Turkey, 33 in United States, 54-55 women's, 123 Egypt, 20, 24, 32, 36, 53-54, 71,145, 148 Aswan High Dam, 36 climatic change, 53 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 97,146 Eisner, Michael, 88 El Salvador, 49 Ends of the Earth, The (Kaplan), 146 enlightened despotism, 24, 61, 66, 71-73 Enlightenment, 24, 38, 60, 61, 69, 86, 114,116,135 entertainment, 88,173-75,183 environmental degradation, 18-26, 27, 42 in China, 25-26 deforestation, 7-9,18, 20, 25, 52 and national security, 19-26 rising water levels, 20, 24-25, 53 water shortages, 20, 21, 24, 25 in West Africa, 7-9,18, 25 Ethiopia, 15, 20, 38,100,103,174,178 ethnic cleansing, 69-70 ethnic politics, 18,19, 26-37,122,141 Arab-Israeli, 30, 41, 57,148-52 cultural and racial conflict, 26-37, 99-104 and democratization, 68-70,102 and environment, 20, 25, 27 and mass murder, 99-104 Euripides, 89 Executive Outcomes, 81 existentialism, 175 expatriatism, 92-93 Eyadema, Etienne, 12 F family, 47 planning, 122,123 in West Africa, 6-7 I N D E X famine, 15, 65,166 Ferguson, Adam, 89 feudalism, 38, 39 Finley, Sir Moses, 97 Politics in the Ancient World, 92 Focus on Africa, 6 Ford, Gerald, 148 Foreign Affairs, 20-21, 26, 28 foreign policy, 18,19-20 Cold War, 20-21,148-51,154,171 development assistance, 120-23 early warning, 122,123 and environmental degradation, 19-26 idealism, 137-39 intervention, 122,123-25,139-40 and Henry Kissinger, 127-55 post-Cold War, 69,171-72 proportionalism for Third World, 119-25 Fort Bragg, North Carolina, 105-10 France, 92 colonialism, 10-14,148,158 Revolution, 116,134,135 Franco-Prussian War, 130 Franklin, Benjamin, 61 Freetown, 4, 8, 9,48 Fujimori, Alberto, 75 Fukuyama, Francis, 22, 24 / 191 G Gordion, 112 Goths, 114 government, 49 early American, 61, 67-68, 95 hybrid regimes, 73-80, 94, 96, 98 oligarchy, 60-61, 95-98 and peace, 174-75 post-Cold War democracies, 60-98 and rise of corporate power, 80-95, 96 and shrinking domain of "politics," 83-89 in West Africa, 7-9,12-15,48, 63,81 "world," 80-83 see also specific forms of government Great Britain, 3, 68, 79 appeasement policy, 128,131-33,170 and Castlereagh, 130,138,143 colonialism, 102 Greece, 132,138 ancient, 50, 60-61, 73, 89, 94, 95-96, 98 democracy in, 69-70 oligarchy, 60-61, 95-96 Greenberg, Alan, 16 Greene, Graham, The Heart of the Matter, 9 Grenada, 139 Guinea, 8,13,17-18 Gulf War (1991), 29,40,101,105,133, 181 Garreau, Joel, The Nine Nations of North America, 56 gated communities, 83-84,176 Germany, 29, 54,114,130,141 Nazi, 72, 73, 99,100,101-3,128,129, 133-35,170,174 post-World War I, 62,134,170 post-World War II, 102 Ghana, 8,12,16, 70 Gibbon, Edward, 111, 135 The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, 111-17 globalization, 80-98,182 Gondama, 8 Haig, Alexander, 127 Haiti, 45, 55,101,107,121,139 democracy in, 65-66,107,157-58 Hapsburg Empire, 130,141 Harrington, James, 73, 89 Harvard University, 26,129 Hegel, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich, 24 Helms, Christine M., 42 Henderson, Loy, 144 Herodotus, 30 Herzen, Alexander, 98 Hinduism, 27, 52 H 192 / I N D E X Hitler, Adolf, 61,100,101,114, 128-33,170,174 Hobbes, Thomas, ix, 24, 61,66, 72-73, 75-76 Holocaust, 48, 72, 73, 99,100,101-3, 128,129,133-35 homelessness, 24 Homer-Dixon, Thomas Fraser, 37,45, 52 "On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict," 21-26, 29-30 Houphouèt-Boigny, Félix, 11-12 human rights, 72, 99 in China, 65, 99,139 and mass murder, 99-104 Hume, David, 115 Hungary, 20, 65 Huntington, Samuel P., "The Clash of Civilizations," 26-29 Hussein, King, 71,148 Hussein, Saddam, 21, 63,101,133, 181 hybrid regimes, 73-80,94,96, 98 I idealism, 69,99-104,137,177 of Isaiah Berlin, 72-73 foreign-policy, 137-39 and mass murder, 99-104 India, 19, 25, 34, 50-53,179 climatic change, 52-53 cultural conflict, 27, 43, 51-52 economy, 51, 71,120 government, 51-52, 71 population, 51 Indonesia, 21, 39 industrialization, 24,87,114 intelligence, military, future of, 105-10 Iraq, 22, 37, 38-40,41,94,134,139 Gulf War, 40,101,133 Isaacson, Walter, 150 Islam, 6,17,18, 35, 52, 71 and Arabs, 38,41-42, 53 clash between Turks and Iranians, 28-29 cultural war and, 28-30 North Africa, 6 spread of, 38,41-42 terrorism, 47 in Turkey, 28-29, 30-37 in West Africa, 6,15, 35 Islamic Revolution (1978), 36 isolationism, 121,138,140,180,182 Israel, 30, 36 -Arab conflict, 30,41-42, 57,148-52 economy, 41 Lebanese invasion, 151-52 military-security system, 104 Nixon/Kissinger policy, 148 peace treaty with Egypt (1979), 148 Istanbul, 43 Italy, 62 collapse of Rome, 111-17 Ivory Coast, 4, 8,9-11,14,15 AIDS in, 16 population, 11-12 J Japan, 27,41, 54,114,170 Jews, 114,115 in Palestine, 134 persecution of, 102,104,128,134-35 Jiang Zemin, 136 Johnson, Lyndon B., 144,149 Johnson, Prince, 48 Jordan, 42,133,148,151,152 Judd, Dennis, 84 juju spirits, 6, 30 International Security, 21 intervention policy, 122,123-25, 139-40 Iran, 28, 29,40,110,134,144 oil, 36, 67 and Turkey, 28-29,40-41, 50 K Karachi, 52, 74,109 Kedourie, Elie, 102 Keegan, John, A History of Warfare, 48 I N D E X Kennan, George F., 30,124,133,137, 144 Foreign Affairs article (1947), 20-21 Kennedy, John F., 144 Khartoum, 62,166 Khmer Rouge, 99-101,102,146 Kirkpatrick, Jeane, 139 Kissinger, Henry, 72,127-55 on appeasement, 128,131-33,143, 150 German-Jewish background of, 128, 133-34,140 and Nixon, 132-33,140,145-52 Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy, 129 reputation of, 127-28,143,152, 155 on Vietnam, 139,140,144-52,155 A World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace 1812-1822, 98,128-45, 153-55 Kohut, Andrew, 139 Korea, 124,139,146,171 Korean War, 146,181 Kosovo, 57,140 Kurdistan, 63 Kurds, 38,40-41,43, 50,101 Kurth, James, 54 Kuwait, 133 L Lagos, 4,15, 52 language, 27 Latin America, 83 democratization of, 63-64, 70, 75 see also specific countries Lebanon, 49, 79,151-52 Lee Kuan Yew, 76-77,174 Levin, Bernard, 133 Liberia, 8,44,47 civil war, 6, 8,48 Lincoln, Abraham, 88 literacy rates, 32, 62, 69, 97,120,122, 123,125 / 193 literature, 157-68 Conrad's Nostromo, 157-68 and policy makers, 158-59,168 Lomé, 12 London Observer, The, 13 Los Angeles Times, 55 Lowell, Robert, "For the Union Dead," 184-85 M Madison, James, 61, 95 The Federalist, 93,116 mafias, 49, 50 malaria, 3, 9,16-17 Malaysia, 80-81 Mali, 63 Malraux, André, Man's Fate, 44 Mandelbaum, Michael, 20 maps, 7,10, 37-43 and cartography, 19, 37-43 and colonialism, 38-40 future, 50-57 political, 19,41-43 as three-dimensional hologram, 50-51 and Turkey, 37-43 Marshall, George, 152 mass culture, 90-95 mass murder, 99-104,114 in Bosnia, 99-103 and idealism, 99-104 in Rwanda, 68-69, 99-101 Matthews, Jessica Tuchman, 53-54 Mazrui, Ali A., 13-14 media, 173-75,180 Menem, Carlos, 64 Mengistu Haile Mariam, 100,103, 174 Mesquida, Christian G., 76 Metternich, Prince Clemens von, 128, 130-42,153-54 Mexico, 56, 63, 83,177 -U.S. border, 50-51, 97,119 Middle Ages, 46-47, 50, 59, 93, 94, 98 194 / I N D E X middle class, 44, 70, 95,114,122,136, 157 African, 121 apathy, 89-90 and corporate power, 83-88 and democratization, 64, 70 world, 182 Middle East, see specific countries Middle East peace conference (1973), 145 migrations of populations, 20, 26, 51 Milosz, Czeslaw, 91 Mogadishu, 166 Mohamad, Mahathir, 80-81 money laundering, 13,109 Montesquieu, Baron de, 113 Morgan, J.
Lifestyle Entrepreneur: Live Your Dreams, Ignite Your Passions and Run Your Business From Anywhere in the World by Jesse Krieger
Airbnb, always be closing, bounce rate, call centre, carbon footprint, commoditize, Deng Xiaoping, different worldview, financial independence, follow your passion, income inequality, iterative process, Ralph Waldo Emerson, search engine result page, Skype, software as a service, South China Sea, Steve Jobs
When talking to customers, describe situations where people went for the lower cost option only to have a cheap product that broke a week or two after they bought it. Focus on how reliability and durability set your product apart. However, if you are selling products that are generally available or commoditized emphasize the customer service or satisfaction guarantee. FINDING YOUR SALES STRATEGY “Cross The River By Feeling The Stones” — Deng Xiaoping Taking into account the tips above regarding general sales skills and industry-specific knowledge, you will ultimately develop your own unique sales strategy. In doing so, Deng Xiaoping’s advice proves helpful; to cross the river “by feeling the stones” basically means that you should move slowly and feel out each step before you move to the next one. Start by offering what you think is a reasonable product at a fair price, and try out different tactics to improve effectiveness. But don’t change your whole approach if something is not working, move carefully and identify just what it is that will set you apart from the pack.
Pacific: Silicon Chips and Surfboards, Coral Reefs and Atom Bombs, Brutal Dictators, Fading Empires, and the Coming Collision of the World's Superpowers by Simon Winchester
9 dash line, Albert Einstein, BRICs, British Empire, California gold rush, colonial rule, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, Frank Gehry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), land tenure, Loma Prieta earthquake, Maui Hawaii, Monroe Doctrine, oil shock, polynesian navigation, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, trade route, transcontinental railway, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, undersea cable, uranium enrichment
His Excellency duly flew there and was given banquets and taken to the Great Wall, the Winter Palace, and the Forbidden City and was accorded appropriate respect. And he got the answer to the bankers’ question, from Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese leader at the time. It was not what he, the bankers, or anyone else in the colony wanted to hear. There was absolutely no question, the diminutive Deng declared, of extending any lease. Hong Kong was most assuredly being shepherded back to its motherland. The Chinese wanted all of their territory returned. They wanted the New Territories. They wanted Kowloon. They wanted Hong Kong Island. They wanted, in short, everything. There was no point in any clever British lawyers spluttering that the three treaties signed during Victorian times gave some of the territory to Britain in perpetuity. As far as Deng Xiaoping was concerned, all three treaties were unequal and unfair, had no standing in law or modern reality, and could be torn up and turned into confetti at will.
Thus far, efforts to come up with coherent answers to either of these two basic questions have met with only limited success. Two names, however, keep surfacing. On the Chinese side, there is the late Admiral Liu Huaqing, the revered architect of the country’s long-term naval strategy, the Chinese equivalent of Alfred Mahan or of Teddy Roosevelt.9 The plan China appears to be undertaking today was essentially laid down and promoted by the admiral and his political superior Deng Xiaoping, in 1985. At the time, both men were well on in years: the admiral was seventy, the Chinese leader eighty-one. They were old friends, die-hard Communist revolutionaries, Long March veterans, and as it happens, true visionaries, men whose thinking has had a major impact on the warp-speed development of China in recent decades. Admiral Liu Huaqing is the principal architect of the rapid expansion of the Chinese navy’s presence in the western Pacific.
See also hurricanes; typhoons defined, 236n Tracy, 232–37, 235, 242, 245, 254, 264 Czechoslovakia, 184–85 da Gama, Vasco, 424 Daghlian, Harry, 58 Dalian, China, 118, 407 Darwin, Australia asylum seekers and, 299, 301 atmospheric pressure tracking and, 255 Cyclone Tracy and, 231–37, 235, 239 U.S. Marine base and, 420 Darwin, Charles, 267 Dee, Sandra, 122, 124, 147 deep-sea research, 305–37 Defoe, Daniel, 19 Delmonico International, 108–9 Demon Core, 58, 67 Deng Xiaoping, 221–24, 411–13 Dennis, C.J., 292n desalination plants, 374 Diamond Head volcano, 2 Diaoyu Islands, 409 Diego Garcia evacuation of, for U.S. base, 51n–52n NSA and, 157 Dien Bien Phu, Battle of, 189, 203, 207–8 Dingo Baby, 25 Dismissal, the, 268, 273–77, 299 Disneyland, 25 Divine, Jeff, 146 doldrums, 248, 438 Dole, James, 371 Dole Company, 262, 372 Donnelly, Jack, 320 Dopey (transponder), 318 dove, fruit-eating, 218n Ducie atoll, 216 Duke, Doris, 2 Dutch colonies, 27–28, 190, 202, 212n, 424 Eagle Pull evacuation, 209 earthquakes, 21–22, 259, 358, 378–80 plate tectonics and, 310, 315–16 Earth Simulator 2, 259–60 East China Sea, 118, 408–9, 412, 417 Easter Island, 6, 430–32, 439 Eastman, George, 106 East Pacific Rise, 308–9, 315–23, 328 East Sea (Sea of Japan), 118 East Wind DF-21D antiship ballistic missile, 417–18 Ebeye Island, 14–17 Ecuador, 21, 261, 317, 372 Edinburgh, Tristan da Cunha, 138n Edmond, John, 322–23 Eielson Air Force Base, 32 Einstein, Albert, 39 electric microgrid, 373n Elizabeth, Queen Mother of England, 194 Elizabeth, Queen of England, 25, 213, 271, 281, 288–89 Ellice Islands (later Tuvalu), 9, 212, 214 Ellison, Larry, 369–75 El Niño, 249–64, 252, 258 Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 427 endangered species, 350–57 Endeavour, HMS (ship), 343n, 431 Endless Summer, The (film), 144 energy Australia and, 270 Lana’i and, 373 Enewetak, 68 islanders exiled, 78 nuclear tests, 37, 54n, 67n, 68n, 78 Enlightenment, 102 ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), 254, 258, 259–62 environmental challenges, 28 climate change, 242–47, 254, 262–65, 342, 346–48, 364, 366 coral reefs, 340–50, 341, 443 endangered birds, 350–62 garbage gyre, 362–66, 364, 443 Lana’i Hawaii and, 369–75 overfishing, 366–68 sea level rise, 8, 261, 368 supranational regulation and, 366–68 seafloor mining and, 336–37 Enyu Island, 69 EP-3 spy plane incident, 402–4, 408 equator, Kiribati divided by, 19 eugenics, 97n Everage, Dame Edna, 281 Evergreen container ships, 117 evolution, 353 Exodus, Book of, 50–51 experimentation, 101 explorations, 3, 23 “Eye, The” (Jeffers), 1 FA-18C Hornet fighter, 388 “face,” science and, 101–2 Facebook, 149 Falkland Islanders, 224n Fanfare for the Common Man (Copeland), 290n Fangataufa atomic tests, 37 Farragut, Admiral, 167 Farrelly, Elizabeth, 286–87 Fat Man bomb, 55, 67n Ferrel cells, 262 Field, Sally, 122 Fiery Cross Reef, 398 Fiji, 212–14, 272, 368, 431 Fiji Museum, 214 Filipinos, 21, 441 Australia and, 293 Hawaii and, 5n, 371–72 Finney, Ben, 434–35 First Island Chain, 389, 390, 401, 412–13, 417 First Lightning (Joe 1) atomic test, 32 fishing, 19 El Niño and, 249 marine protected zones, 367–68 overfishing, 366–68 radioactivity and, 77 threat to birds, 362 “Five Visions of Captain Cook” (Slessor), 339 Fleming, Sandford, 8 Florida, 262, 343 Flying Fish Cove drownings, 302 Food and Drug Administration, 77 Forbes, 369 Ford, Alexander Hume, 131–33, 147 Ford, Gerald, 177 Ford Motors, 106 Formosa, 414 Fort Beatrice, 207 Fort Claudine, 207 Fort Eliane, 207 Fort Gabrielle, 207 Fort Huguette, 207 Fort Meade, 157, 159 Foster, Dudley, 328–29 Foxconn, 113 France colonies, 190, 214–15, 214n-16n, 352, 424, 433, 437 Indochina and, 27, 32, 192, 202–9, 211, 397 nuclear tests and, 19, 33, 218 Overseas Collectivities, 215n Pitcairn Island and, 218 surfing and, 140 Fraser, Malcolm, 271, 273–76, 299 Freeth, George, 132–34, 136–37, 139, 142, 147 French Polynesia, 215n Freshwater Beach, Australia, 139 Friends of the Earth, 336 Fuchs, Klaus, 33 Fukushima earthquake and tsunami, 116, 379 fur seals, 261 Futtsu, Japan, 114 Futuna, 215n Galápagos Islands, 48, 317, 327, 346, 353 Gallipoli, battle of, 278 Gambier Islands, 218n Garden Island, 420–21 Gauguin, Paul, 5 Gehry, Frank, 281, 285 General Order No. 1, 155 Geneva peace conference (1954), 208 George, VI, King of England, 31 George (thermonuclear bomb), 42, 67 George Washington, USS (carrier), 241 German East Asiatic Squadron, 9 Germany, 409 colonies, 9–10, 44–45, 190, 211–12, 212n, 433 postwar recovery, 100–101 WWI and, 10 Giap, Vo Nguyen, 207–8 Gibraltar, 157, 224n Gidget (Kohner), 122, 123, 147 films, 122, 123–25, 144, 147 Gilbert Islands (later Kiribati), 9, 18, 212, 214, 253 nuclear tests and, 19 girl surfing, 141–42 Gladstone, Australia, 343 Glenn, John, 214 Gloucester, Duke of, 213 Goat 315, 57 “God Save the Queen” (anthem), 269 Godzilla (black smoker), 332 Goniopora pandoraensis, 340, 345 Google, 149 Goossens, Eugene, 283–84, 290–92 Gracey, Douglas David, 203–6 Grand Budapest Hotel, The (film), 23 Grand Central Terminal, 31, 35 Graves, Alvin Cushman, 67–68, 68, 70–71, 73 Great Barrier Reef, 340–53, 341, 375 Great Moments of Humanity (Zweig), 23–24 Great Pacific Garbage Gyre, 362–66, 364, 443 Greek immigrants, Australia and, 294–95 Greenhill, Denis, 51n Greenpeace, 336, 366 Grimble, Arthur, 6, 214 Guadalcanal, Battle of, 214 Guam, 1–4, 8–9, 32, 389n, 403, 409, 412, 425 U.S. bases in, 9, 418, 422 Guangzhou, China, 424 Guantánamo, 401n Guatemala, 343 Guiuan, Philippines, 239 Gulf of Alaska, 314 Gulf of California, 308–9 Gulf of Tonkin, 393 gyres, defined, 364 Hadley cells, 262 Haeinsa monastery, 184 Hagåtña, Guam, 1, 3 Hainan Island, 393–94, 394, 398, 402–4, 414 Hamburger Hill, 209 Hanford, Washington, nuclear plant, 47 Hanson, Pauline, 296–98, 302 Hasegawa, Hiroshi, 356, 359–62, 361 Hauteclocque, Philippe Leclerc de, 205 Hawaii, 1–4, 116, 392n, 404, 406, 420 bird population, 350–55 care for earth and, 427 China and, 412–14, 425 cultural influences in, 5 diseases brought to, 130 El Niño and, 262 extinctions on, 357n garbage gyre and, 364–65 independence movement, 352n marine protected zones, 367 missionaries and, 44, 130–31 Navarre Plan and, 206 NSA and, 157 Polynesian culture and, 4–6, 9, 127 Polynesian navigation skills and, 4–5, 427–40 Pueblo and, 160 statehood and, 5 surfing and, 27, 122, 127–33, 139–40, 142, 144–45, 149 Typhoon Haiyan and, 237 U.S.
The River at the Centre of the World by Simon Winchester
It did not pass unnoticed that the projected date for the highly symbolic closing of the Yangtze's flow – a central part of a dam-building project, when the waters are passed around the dam site in diversion tunnels – was due to take place in 1997. That was also the year when Hong Kong would revert from British rule back to China's, after 155 years in the barbarian wilderness. The idea that Li Peng's China – or Deng Xiaoping's China, for the former is little more than a puppet of the latter – could in the same year also fly in the face of the barbarian opposition, which was already mounting, and stop up her greatest river: the symbolism of such coincidence augured exceedingly well, in the minds of the masters of the moment. For by now not everyone, particularly outside China, was quite so enthusiastic. The foreign firms and government organizations that had been so eager to support the Chinese from the start of the project began to have their doubts only a few years later, as the avarice of one decade began to transmute into the more considered caution of the next.
Li Peng is a Russian-trained electrical engineer. His determination to have the dam built, come what may, stems both from that fact – his interest in capital projects, the bigger the better – and from his hope that his regime will leave a memorial to Mao and Maoism (and to himself, of course) that will last a thousand years. ‘The pet project of the red emperor' is how Dai Qing has styled the dam, and both Li and Deng Xiaoping have made it clear they expect their engineers to erect a structure of enduring nobility. But almost all of the criticism of the dam is based on the assumption that it will not last for a fraction of the anticipated time, and that its effects will be by turn minimally beneficial and a wholesale environmental disaster – indeed, that it may turn out to be a catastrophe waiting to happen. The debate can be a highly technical one; but in essence the critics – Chinese and Western both – have homed in since the start of construction on a small number of what they regard as dangerous weaknesses in the project.
Moreover, added the rubric below, ‘If your cigarette end burns the carpet, furniture, wall-paper, curtain or anything else in the room, you will be punished 50 yuan for each hole. ‘If the end burns anything on the bed, you will be punished as wholly as it costs. ‘Welcome,’ the notice ends with a flourish, ‘to our hotel.’ * Sichuan is the birthplace of Li Peng, China's premier; it was where Deng Xiaoping was born, too, and the guttural accents of both men remain. In Yibin the locals claim Mr Li as their own, though official biographies published in more disinterested cities say he was born in Chengdu. His picture is everywhere, however, and most notably in the one institution for which the town is known across all China – the great Wuliangye distillery, where China's best-known liquor has been fashioned for the last six hundred years.
The Long Boom: A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity by Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, Joel Hyatt
American ideology, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, centre right, computer age, crony capitalism, cross-subsidies, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, hydrogen economy, industrial cluster, informal economy, intangible asset, Just-in-time delivery, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, life extension, market bubble, mass immigration, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, new economy, oil shock, open borders, Productivity paradox, QR code, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, upwardly mobile, Washington Consensus, Y2K
GfobAlizATtoN EteqiNs The changes in technology and the political economy of the West paralleled the third set of events that fell along that 1980 axis— globalization. Technically, these events also fell in the realm of politics and economics, but with more global implications than what Reagan and Thatcher represented. In 1980, Mikhail Gorbachev became a Politburo member and began the process that led to the Soviet Union's move toward democracy and capitalism. And in 1978, Deng Xiaoping wrestled control of political power in the People's Republic of China and began moving the Chinese toward the market economy. It's hard to exaggerate the significance of these two events. They created the starting point for our truly globalized world. The world had made other attempts to integrate on a more global scale. There was the creation of colonial empires in the late nineteenth century, but they integrated only slices of the overall global economy of that time.
So faced with making an upgrade of its system software to prepare for the New Economy, Japan instead stagnated for the entire decade of the 1990s and went from the most dynamic industrial economy in the world in the 1980s, to one reminiscent of a deer caught frozen in the headlights of an onrushing car. And there was no alternative political opposition to lead the country with a fresh set of ideas. The Chinese have managed great economic success during the Long Boom years, even though they have not followed the rule of 116 The Lowq BOOM twos in the political sphere. They may not continue to be so lucky in the future. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping was able to broker a political succession out of the Mao era and fundamentally change the direction of economic policy. Due to Deng, China did have a credible alternative that time around, but the communist system has no institutional way of replicating that kind of succession again. Any credible alternative must grow furtively within the monolithic culture of Communist Party politics. The Chinese challenge will be to allow the same kind of maturity in their political system that they have allowed in their economic system.
Seriously Curious: The Facts and Figures That Turn Our World Upside Down by Tom Standage
agricultural Revolution, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, blood diamonds, corporate governance, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, failed state, financial independence, gender pay gap, gig economy, Gini coefficient, high net worth, income inequality, index fund, industrial robot, Internet of things, invisible hand, job-hopping, Julian Assange, life extension, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, mega-rich, megacity, Minecraft, mobile money, natural language processing, Nelson Mandela, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, ransomware, reshoring, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, South China Sea, speech recognition, stem cell, supply-chain management, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, undersea cable, US Airways Flight 1549, WikiLeaks
The summit meeting (called a forum) attracted the largest number of foreign dignitaries to Beijing since the Olympic Games in 2008. Yet few European leaders showed up. For the most part they have ignored the implications of China’s initiative. What are those implications, and is the West right to be sanguine? The project is the clearest expression so far of Mr Xi’s determination to break with Deng Xiaoping’s dictum to “hide our capabilities and bide our time; never try to take the lead”. The Belt and Road Forum (with its unfortunate acronym, BARF) was the second set-piece event in 2017 at which Mr Xi laid out China’s claim to global leadership. (The first was a speech against protectionism made at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January.) In 2014, Wang Yi, the foreign minister, said the initiative was the most important component of Mr Xi’s foreign policy.
For more explainers and charts from The Economist, visit economist.com Index A Africa child marriage 84 democracy 40 gay and lesbian rights 73, 74 Guinea 32 mobile phones 175–6 see also individual countries agriculture 121–2 Aguiar, Mark 169 air pollution 143–4 air travel and drones 187–8 flight delays 38–9 Akitu (festival) 233 alcohol beer consumption 105–6 consumption in Britain 48, 101–2 craft breweries 97–8 drink-driving 179–80 wine glasses 101–2 Alexa (voice assistant) 225 Algeria food subsidies 31 gay and lesbian rights 73 All I Want for Christmas Is You (Carey) 243 alphabet 217–18 Alternative for Germany (AfD) 223, 224 Alzheimer’s disease 140 Amazon (company) 225 America see United States and 227–8 Angola 73, 74 animals blood transfusions 139–40 dog meat 91–2 gene drives 153–4 size and velocity 163–4 and water pollution 149–50 wolves 161–2 Arctic 147–8 Argentina gay and lesbian rights 73 lemons 95–6 lithium 17–18 Ariel, Barak 191 Arizona 85 arms trade 19–20 Asia belt and road initiative 117–18 high-net-worth individuals 53 wheat consumption 109–10 see also individual countries Assange, Julian 81–3 asteroids 185–6 augmented reality (AR) 181–2 August 239–40 Australia avocados 89 forests 145 inheritance tax 119 lithium 17, 18 shark attacks 201–2 autonomous vehicles (AVs) 177–8 Autor, David 79 avocados 89–90 B Babylonians 233 Baltimore 99 Bangladesh 156 bank notes 133–4 Bateman, Tim 48 beer consumption 105–6 craft breweries 97–8 Beijing air pollution 143–4 dogs 92 belt and road initiative 117–18 betting 209–10 Bier, Ethan 153 Bils, Mark 169 birds and aircraft 187 guinea fowl 32–3 birth rates Europe 81–3 United States 79–80 black money 133–4 Black Power 34, 35 Blade Runner 208 blood transfusions 139–40 board games 199–200 body cameras 191–2 Boko Haram 5, 15–16 Bolivia 17–18 Bollettieri, Nick 197 bookmakers 209–10 Borra, Cristina 75 Bosnia 221–2 brain computers 167–8 Brazil beer consumption 105, 106 Christmas music 243, 244 end-of-life care 141–2 gay and lesbian rights 73 murder rate 45, 46 shark attacks 202 breweries 97–8 Brexit, and car colours 49–50 brides bride price 5 diamonds 13–14 Britain alcohol consumption 101–2 car colours 49–50 Christmas music 244 cigarette sales 23–4 craft breweries 98 crime 47–8 Easter 238 gay population 70–72 housing material 8 inheritance tax 119 Irish immigration 235 life expectancy 125 manufacturing jobs 131 national identity 223–4 new-year resolutions 234 police body cameras 191 sexual harassment 67, 68, 69 sperm donation 61 see also Scotland Brookings Institution 21 Browning, Martin 75 bubonic plague 157–8 Bush, George W. 119 C cables, undersea 193–4 California and Argentine lemons 95, 96 avocados 90 cameras 191–2 Canada diamonds 13 drones 188 lithium 17 national identity 223–4 capitalism, and birth rates 81–2 Carey, Mariah 243 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 21 cars colours 49–50 self-driving 177–8 Caruana, Fabiano 206 Charles, Kerwin 169 cheetahs 163, 164 chess 205–6 Chetty, Raj 113 Chicago 100 children birth rates 79–80, 81–3 child marriage 84–5 in China 56–7 crime 47–8 and gender pay gap 115–16, 135–6 obesity 93–4 Chile gay and lesbian rights 73 lithium 17–18 China air pollution 143–5 arms sales 19–20 avocados 89 beer consumption 105 belt and road initiative 117–18 childhood obesity 93 construction 7 dog meat 91–2 dragon children 56–7 flight delays 38–9 foreign waste 159–60 lithium 17 rice consumption 109–10 Choi, Roy 99 Christian, Cornelius 26 Christianity Easter 237–8 new year 233–4 Christmas 246–7 music 243–5 cigarettes affordability 151–2 black market 23–4 cities, murder rates 44–6 Citizen Kane 207 citrus wars 95–6 civil wars 5 Clarke, Arthur C. 183 Coase, Ronald 127, 128 cocaine 44 cochlear implants 167 Cohen, Jake 203 Colen, Liesbeth 106 colleges, US 113–14 Colombia 45 colours, cars 49–50 commodities 123–4 companies 127–8 computers augmented reality 181–2 brain computers 167–8 emojis 215–16 and languages 225–6 spam e-mail 189–90 Connecticut 85 Connors, Jimmy 197 contracts 127–8 Costa Rica 89 couples career and family perception gap 77–8 housework 75–6 see also marriage cows 149–50 craft breweries 97–8 crime and avocados 89–90 and dog meat 91–2 murder rates 44–6 young Britons 47–8 CRISPR-Cas9 153 Croatia 222 Croato-Serbian 221–2 D Daily-Diamond, Christopher 9–10 Davis, Mark 216 De Beers 13–14 death 141–2 death taxes 119–20 democracy 40–41 Deng Xiaoping 117 Denmark career and family perception gap 78 gender pay gap 135–6 sex reassignment 65 Denver 99 Devon 72 diamonds 13–14, 124 digitally remastering 207–8 Discovery Channel 163–4 diseases 157–8 dog meat 91–2 Dorn, David 79 Dr Strangelove 207 dragon children 56–7 drink see alcohol drink-driving 179–80 driverless cars 177–8 drones and aircraft 187–8 and sharks 201 drugs cocaine trafficking 44 young Britons 48 D’Souza, Kiran 187 E e-mail 189–90 earnings, gender pay gap 115–16, 135–6 Easter 237–8 economy and birth rates 79–80, 81–2 and car colours 49–50 and witch-hunting 25–6 education and American rich 113–14 dragon children 56–7 Egal, Muhammad Haji Ibrahim 40–41 Egypt gay and lesbian rights 73 marriage 5 new-year resolutions 233 El Paso 100 El Salvador 44, 45 emojis 215–16 employment gender pay gap 115–16, 135–6 and gender perception gap 77–8 job tenure 129–30 in manufacturing 131–2 video games and unemployment 169–70 English language letter names 217–18 Papua New Guinea 219 environment air pollution 143–4 Arctic sea ice 147–8 and food packaging 103–4 waste 159–60 water pollution 149–50 Equatorial Guinea 32 Eritrea 40 Ethiopia 40 Europe craft breweries 97–8 summer holidays 239–40 see also individual countries Everson, Michael 216 exorcism 36–7 F Facebook augmented reality 182 undersea cables 193 FANUC 171, 172 Federer, Roger 197 feminism, and birth rates 81–2 fertility rates see birth rates festivals Christmas 246–7 Christmas music 243–5 new-year 233–4 Feuillet, Catherine 108 films 207–8 firms 127–8 5G 173–4 flight delays 38–9 Florida and Argentine lemons 95 child marriage 85 Foley, William 220 food avocados and crime 89–90 dog meat 91–2 lemons 95–6 wheat consumption 109–10 wheat genome 107–8 food packaging 103–4 food trucks 99–100 football clubs 211–12 football transfers 203–4 forests 145–6, 162 Fountains of Paradise, The (Clarke) 183 fracking 79–80 France career and family perception gap 78 Christmas music 244 exorcism 36–7 gender-inclusive language 229–30 job tenure 130 sex reassignment 66 sexual harassment 68–9 witch-hunting 26, 27 wolves 161–2 G gambling 209–10 games, and unemployment 169–70 Gandhi, Mahatma 155 gang members 34–5 Gantz, Valentino 153 gas 124 gay population 70–72 gay rights, attitudes to 73–4 gender sex reassignment 65–6 see also men; women gender equality and birth rates 81–2 in language 229–30 gender pay gap 115–16, 135–6 gene drives 153–4 Genghis Khan 42 genome, wheat 107–8 ger districts 42–3 Germany beer consumption 105 job tenure 130 national identity 223–4 sexual harassment 68, 69 vocational training 132 witch-hunting 26, 27 Ghana 73 gig economy 128, 130 glasses, wine glasses 101–2 Goddard, Ceri 72 Google 193 Graduate, The 207 Greece forests 145 national identity 223–4 sex reassignment 65 smoking ban 152 Gregg, Christine 9–10 grunting 197–8 Guatemala 45 Guinea 32 guinea fowl 32–3 guinea pig 32 Guinea-Bissau 32 Guo Peng 91–2 Guyana 32 H Haiti 5 Hale, Sarah Josepha 242 Hanson, Gordon 79 Hawaii ’Oumuamua 185 porn consumption 63–4 health child obesity 93–4 life expectancy 125–6 plague 157–8 and sanitation 155 high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) 53 Hiri Motu 219 holidays Easter 237–8 St Patrick’s Day 235–6 summer holidays 239–40 Thanksgiving 241–2 HoloLens 181–2 homicide 44–6 homosexuality attitudes to 73–4 UK 70–72 Honduras 44, 45 Hong Kong 56 housework 75–6, 77–8 Hudson, Valerie 5 Hungary 223–4 Hurst, Erik 169 I ice 147–8 Ikolo, Prince Anthony 199 India bank notes 133–4 inheritance tax 119 languages 219 rice consumption 109 sand mafia 7 sanitation problems 155–6 Indonesia polygamy and civil war 5 rice consumption 109–10 inheritance taxes 119–20 interest rates 51–2 interpunct 229–30 Ireland aitch 218 forests 145 St Patrick’s Day 235–6 same-sex marriage 73 sex reassignment 65 Italy birth rate 82 end of life care 141–2 forests 145 job tenure 130 life expectancy 126 J Jacob, Nitya 156 Jamaica 45 Japan 141–2 Jighere, Wellington 199 job tenure 129–30 jobs see employment Johnson, Bryan 168 junk mail 189 K Kazakhstan 6 Kearney, Melissa 79–80 Kennedy, John F. 12 Kenya democracy 40 mobile-money systems 176 Kiribati 7 Kleven, Henrik 135–6 knots 9–10 Kohler, Timothy 121 Kyrgyzstan 6 L laces 9–10 Lagos 199 Landais, Camille 135–6 languages and computers 225–6 gender-inclusive 229–30 letter names 217–18 and national identity 223–4 Papua New Guinea 219–20 Serbo-Croatian 221–2 Unicode 215 World Bank writing style 227–8 Latimer, Hugh 246 Leeson, Peter 26 leisure board games in Nigeria 199–200 chess 205–6 gambling 209–10 video games and unemployment 169–70 see also festivals; holidays lemons 95–6 letter names 217–18 Libya 31 life expectancy 125–6 Lincoln, Abraham 242 lithium 17–18 London 71, 72 longevity 125–6 Lozère 161–2 Lucas, George 208 M McEnroe, John 197 McGregor, Andrew 204 machine learning 225–6 Macri, Mauricio 95, 96 Macron, Emmanuel 143 Madagascar 158 Madison, James 242 MagicLeap 182 Maine 216 Malaysia 56 Maldives 7 Mali 31 Malta 65 Manchester United 211–12 manufacturing jobs 131–2 robots 171–2 summer holidays 239 Maori 34–5 marriage child marriage 84–5 polygamy 5–6 same-sex relationships 73–4 see also couples Marteau, Theresa 101–2 Marx, Karl 123 Maryland 85 Massachusetts child marriage 85 Christmas 246 Matfess, Hilary 5, 15 meat dog meat 91–2 packaging 103–4 mega-rich 53 men career and family 77–8 housework 75–6 job tenure 129–30 life expectancy 125 polygamy 5–6 sexual harassment by 67–9 video games and unemployment 169 Mexico avocados 89, 90 gay and lesbian rights 73 murder rate 44, 45 microbreweries 97–8 Microsoft HoloLens 181–2 undersea cables 193 migration, and birth rates 81–3 mining diamonds 13–14 sand 7–8 mobile phones Africa 175–6 5G 173–4 Mocan, Naci 56–7 Mongolia 42–3 Mongrel Mob 34 Monopoly (board game) 199, 200 Monty Python and the Holy Grail 25 Moore, Clement Clarke 247 Moretti, Franco 228 Morocco 7 Moscato, Philippe 36 movies 207–8 Mozambique 73 murder rates 44–6 music, Christmas 243–5 Musk, Elon 168 Myanmar 118 N Nadal, Rafael 197 national identity 223–4 natural gas 124 Netherlands gender 66 national identity 223–4 neurostimulators 167 New Jersey 85 New Mexico 157–8 New York (state), child marriage 85 New York City drink-driving 179–80 food trucks 99–100 New Zealand avocados 89 gang members 34–5 gene drives 154 water pollution 149–50 new-year resolutions 233–4 Neymar 203, 204 Nigeria board games 199–200 Boko Haram 5, 15–16 population 54–5 Nissenbaum, Stephen 247 Northern Ireland 218 Norway Christmas music 243 inheritance tax 119 life expectancy 125, 126 sex reassignment 65 Nucci, Alessandra 36 O obesity 93–4 oceans see seas Odimegwu, Festus 54 O’Reilly, Oliver 9–10 Ortiz de Retez, Yñigo 32 Oster, Emily 25–6 ostriches 163, 164 ’Oumuamua 185–6 P packaging 103–4 Pakistan 5 Palombi, Francis 161 Papua New Guinea languages 219–20 name 32 Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) 203 Passover 237 pasta 31 pay, gender pay gap 115–16, 135–6 Peck, Jessica Lynn 179–80 Pennsylvania 85 Peru 90 Pestre, Dominique 228 Pew Research Centre 22 Phelps, Michael 163–4 Philippe, Édouard 230 phishing 189 Phoenix, Arizona 177 Pilgrims 241 plague 157–8 Plastic China 159 police, body cameras 191–2 pollution air pollution 143–4 water pollution 149–50 polygamy 5–6 pornography and Britain’s gay population 70–72 and Hawaii missile alert 63–4 Portugal 145 Puerto Rico 45 punctuation marks 229–30 Q Qatar 19 R ransomware 190 Ravenscroft, George 101 Real Madrid 211 religious observance and birth rates 81–2 and Christmas music 244 remastering 207–8 Reynolds, Andrew 70 Rhodes, Cecil 13 rice 109–10 rich high-net-worth individuals 53 US 113–14 ride-hailing apps and drink-driving 179–80 see also Uber RIWI 73–4 robotaxis 177–8 robots 171–2 Rogers, Dan 240 Romania birth rate 81 life expectancy 125 Romans 233 Romer, Paul 227–8 Ross, Hana 23 Royal United Services Institute 21 Russ, Jacob 26 Russia arms sales 20 beer consumption 105, 106 fertility rate 81 Rwanda 40 S Sahara 31 St Louis 205–6 St Patrick’s Day 235–6 salt, in seas 11–12 same-sex relationships 73–4 San Antonio 100 sand 7–8 sanitation 155–6 Saudi Arabia 19 Scotland, witch-hunting 25–6, 27 Scott, Keith Lamont 191 Scrabble (board game) 199 seas Arctic sea ice 147–8 salty 11–12 undersea cables 193–4 secularism, and birth rates 81–2 Seles, Monica 197 self-driving cars 177–8 Serbia 222 Serbo-Croatian 221–2 Sevilla, Almudena 75 sex reassignment 65–6 sexual harassment 67–9, 230 Sharapova, Maria 197 sharks deterring attacks 201–2 racing humans 163–4 shipping 148 shoelaces 9–10 Silk Road 117–18 Singapore dragon children 56 land reclamation 7, 8 rice consumption 110 single people, housework 75–6 Sinquefeld, Rex 205 smart glasses 181–2 Smith, Adam 127 smoking black market for cigarettes 23–4 efforts to curb 151–2 smuggling 31 Sogaard, Jakob 135–6 Somalia 40 Somaliland 40–41 South Africa childhood obesity 93 diamonds 13 gay and lesbian rights 73 murder rate 45, 46 South Korea arms sales 20 rice consumption 110 South Sudan failed state 40 polygamy 5 space elevators 183–4 spaghetti 31 Spain forests 145 gay and lesbian rights 73 job tenure 130 spam e-mail 189–90 sperm banks 61–2 sport football clubs 211–12 football transfers 203–4 grunting in tennis 197–8 Sri Lanka 118 Star Wars 208 sterilisation 65–6 Strasbourg 26 submarine cables 193–4 Sudan 40 suicide-bombers 15–16 summer holidays 239–40 Sutton Trust 22 Sweden Christmas music 243, 244 gay and lesbian rights 73 homophobia 70 inheritance tax 119 overpayment of taxes 51–2 sex reassignment 65 sexual harassment 67–8 Swinnen, Johan 106 Switzerland sex reassignment 65 witch-hunting 26, 27 T Taiwan dog meat 91 dragon children 56 Tamil Tigers 15 Tanzania 40 taxes death taxes 119–20 Sweden 51–2 taxis robotaxis 177–8 see also ride-hailing apps tennis players, grunting 197–8 terrorism 15–16 Texas 85 Thailand 110 Thanksgiving 241–2 think-tanks 21–2 Tianjin 143–4 toilets 155–6 Tok Pisin 219, 220 transgender people 65–6 Trump, Donald 223 Argentine lemons 95, 96 estate tax 119 and gender pay gap 115 and manufacturing jobs 131, 132 Tsiolkovsky, Konstantin 183 Turkey 151 turkeys 33 Turkmenistan 6 U Uber 128 and drink-driving 179–80 Uganda 40 Ulaanbaatar 42–3 Uljarevic, Daliborka 221 undersea cables 193–4 unemployment 169–70 Unicode 215–16 United Arab Emirates and Somaliland 41 weapons purchases 19 United Kingdom see Britain United States and Argentine lemons 95–6 arms sales 19 beer consumption 105 chess 205–6 child marriage 84–5 Christmas 246–7 Christmas music 243, 244 drink-driving 179–80 drones 187–8 end of life care 141–2 estate tax 119 fertility rates 79–80 food trucks 99–100 forests 145 gay and lesbian rights 73 getting rich 113–14 Hawaiian porn consumption 63–4 job tenure 129–30 letter names 218 lithium 17 manufacturing jobs 131–2 murder rate 45, 46 national identity 223–4 new-year resolutions 234 plague 157–8 police body cameras 191–2 polygamy 6 robotaxis 177 robots 171–2 St Patrick’s Day 235–6 sexual harassment 67, 68 sperm banks 61–2 Thanksgiving 241–2 video games and unemployment 169–70 wealth inequality 121 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) see drones V video games 169–70 Vietnam weapons purchases 19 wheat consumption 110 Virginia 85 virtual reality (VR) 181, 182 Visit from St Nicholas, A (Moore) 247 W Wang Yi 117 Warner, Jason 15 wars 5 Washington, George 242 Washington DC, food trucks 99 waste 159–60 water pollution 149–50 wealth getting rich in America 113–14 high-net-worth individuals 53 inequality 120, 121–2 weather, and Christmas music 243–5 Weinstein, Harvey 67, 69 Weryk, Rob 185 wheat consumption 109–10 genome 107–8 Wilson, Riley 79–80 wine glasses 101–2 Winslow, Edward 241 wireless technology 173–4 witch-hunting 25–7 wolves 161–2 women birth rates 79–80, 81–3 bride price 5 career and family 77–8 child marriage 84–5 housework 75–6 job tenure 129–30 life expectancy 125 pay gap 115–16 sexual harassment of 67–9 suicide-bombers 15–16 World Bank 227–8 World Health Organisation (WHO) and smoking 151–2 transsexualism 65 X Xi Jinping 117–18 Y young people crime 47–8 job tenure 129–30 video games and unemployment 169–70 Yu, Han 56–7 Yulin 91 yurts 42–3 Z Zubelli, Rita 239
London Review of Books by London Review of Books
But only in 15 to 20 years, after we’re able to raise the population’s living standards.’ * Every so often Taubman’s book halts, and unleashes a jostling, barking pack of questions. Most have real bite. Why did Gorbachev do this, why didn’t he do that, when a different decision might have avoided a defeat or hastened progress? But the question raised by Andropov is one of the biggest, and now overshadows all reflections on Gorbachev’s six years in power. Deng Xiaoping in China was to share broadly the same priorities as Andropov: let us first build an economy that works, enriching both state and people – and only then turn towards political transformation (some day, if we feel it’s safe). So why did Gorbachev do the opposite after he reached the leadership in 1985? No perestroika without glasnost: he was convinced that free, uncensored discussion was the precondition for breaking down massive resistance to economic reform, not the outcome.
The H-Word reconstructs the long history of the concept of hegemony in 12 chapters, moving from Thucydides via Lenin and Gramsci to various German and other imperialists, and from there to British, American and French postwar international relations theory. It takes in American political science and US strategic doctrine; the political economy of the Thatcher years; the work of Ernesto Laclau and Giovanni Arrighi; and, after a particularly exciting treatment of Asia and China from the time before the Warring Kingdoms to Mao and Deng Xiaoping, ends with today’s European Union. Antinomies deals with Gramsci alone; essentially it is a reprint of a long essay published in 1977 in New Left Review . Both books are remarkable examples of the deep, historically situated reading of complex texts. Antinomies contains a preface reflecting on the interval since the first publication of the essay forty years ago, and in an appendix a fascinating report from 1933 on Gramsci in prison, written for the leadership of the Partito Comunista Italiano by a fellow prisoner, published in English here for the first time.
The Human City: Urbanism for the Rest of Us by Joel Kotkin
autonomous vehicles, blue-collar work, British Empire, carbon footprint, Celebration, Florida, citizen journalism, colonial rule, crony capitalism, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Downton Abbey, edge city, Edward Glaeser, financial independence, Frank Gehry, Gini coefficient, Google bus, housing crisis, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, Jane Jacobs, labor-force participation, land reform, life extension, market bubble, mass immigration, McMansion, megacity, new economy, New Urbanism, Own Your Own Home, peak oil, pensions crisis, Peter Calthorpe, post-industrial society, RAND corporation, Richard Florida, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Seaside, Florida, self-driving car, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, starchitect, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, the built environment, trade route, transit-oriented development, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, Victor Gruen, Whole Earth Catalog, women in the workforce, young professional
These poor places—most with median incomes between Dhaka at US$3,100 per capita and Bangkok at US$23,000 per capita—will continue to grow, although their growth rates may also slow due to smaller family size and competition from other generally smaller cities. China, not surprisingly, is home to six megacities, the most of any country, reflecting the country’s extraordinarily rapid urbanization. The second-fastest-growing megacity over the past decade, Shenzhen, was a small fishing village before it became a focus of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s first wave of modernization policies. In 1979, the village had roughly 30,000 people;19 now, it is a thriving metropolis of 12 million whose population grew 56 percent in the past decade. Its rise has been so recent and quick that the Asia Society has labeled it “a city without a history.”20 India matches Japan with three megacities, all growing much faster than any city in the high-income world.
Education was a critical component, and from the start it was seen as the primary way to build both the state and the economy. This policy resulted in a high proportion of technically trained professionals, leading the Center on International Education Benchmarking to name the country “among the most technically competent in the world.”63 THE RISE OF CHINESE GLOBAL CITIES Arguably, the most important export of Singapore was its system. When the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping visited the country in 1978, he quickly saw an ideal formula for elevating his own then very poor country. Deng, Lee would later recall, was most captivated by Singapore’s modern prosperity. “What he saw in Singapore in 1978,” Lee writes, “had become the point of reference as the minimum the Chinese people should achieve.” Singapore presented an appealing model to the feisty Communist autocrat: a top-down, mandarin-led system that also could appeal to global capitalists.64 Anyone visiting China today can see the results of Deng’s insight: gleaming cities, a massive expansion of education, modern roads and transit systems, and most of all, the general prosperity that has lifted the mother country of most Singaporeans to almost unimagined heights.
., 6–7, 12–13 Consumer cities, 24, 36–38, 89 Contini, Edgardo, 157 Conurbations, 155 Coontz, Stephanie, 135, 151, 182 Cooper, James Fenimore, 86 Copenhagen, 118, 154 Core cities, 17 Americans living in, 15 education in, 165–166 environmental impact of, 190–191 executive headquarters in, 186 future economic role of, 185–186 life stages and, 16–18 millennials living in, 171 poverty rate in, 159 reinventing, 31 reversal of loss patterns in, 155 safety of, 166–167 tech employment in, 185 young people living in, 171 Cortright, Joe, 42 Cosmopolitanism, 103, 105 Cox, Pamela, 96 Cox, Wendell, 117, 133–134, 159–160, 165 “Cramming,” 148, 190 Crosland, T. W. H., 145 Culture(s) in ancient cities, 21–22 flattening of, 104 migration and, 137–138 in new consumer cities, 37 in peripheral developments, 142 post-familial society’s influence on, 130–132 of Singapore, 1, 80 D Dallas, 46 Dallas-Fort Worth, 82–83, 85, 185 Damascus, 24 Dang Giang, 77 Datar, Ashok, 49–50 Davies, Alan, 148 De Blasio, Bill, 102 Delhi, 54, 55, 66, 68 Deng Xiaoping, 91 Denmark, 98, 118 Densification, 12–13, 44–45 aging and decline in childbearing as drivers of, 179 enforced, 169–170 environmental concerns with, 189–191 opposition to, 199 suburban resistance to, 178–179 Density, 6 affordability and, 11–12 attractiveness of, 164–165, 168 climate change and, 10–11 cult of, 6–8 in megacities, limits of, 76–78 moral justification for, 10 population growth and, 9–10 prosperity and, 54–56 Denver, 9 DePaulo, Bella, 127 Desai, Rajiv, 65 Descartes, René, 1 De-Shalit, Avner, 22, 104 Des Moines, 9 Detached housing, 152–153, 160 Detroit, 9, 32 Developers desires of citizens vs., 201 of multigenerational homes, 183 Dhaka, Bangladesh, 53, 65, 68–69 Dharavi, 198 Disney, 130 Dispersion, 141–168.
We Are All Fast-Food Workers Now: The Global Uprising Against Poverty Wages by Annelise Orleck
airport security, American Legislative Exchange Council, anti-communist, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, British Empire, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, card file, clean water, collective bargaining, corporate social responsibility, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, Food sovereignty, gig economy, global supply chain, global value chain, immigration reform, indoor plumbing, Kickstarter, land reform, land tenure, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, McJob, means of production, new economy, payday loans, precariat, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, shareholder value, Skype, special economic zone, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, union organizing, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working poor
Even in that heyday of liberalism there were those who argued that any regulation of trade and commerce, any government programs to diminish economic inequality, constrained and weakened individual freedoms. Ronald Reagan popularized that view in his critical 1964 speech “A Time for Choosing,” a clarion call to cut “big government.” But that argument did not become dominant until the 1980s, with the elections of Reagan in the United States, Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom, and the rise of Deng Xiaoping in China. The new era they heralded did more than limit progressive taxation and shred the social safety net. The creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995 institutionalized the “neoliberal” vision that profit-taking was a virtue in and of itself. Over the next two decades almost all the world’s countries joined the WTO. But it always was—and still is—run by and for the wealthiest and most powerful nations.2 The global economy that neoliberals celebrated did not emerge overnight.
We are witnessing the first truly global uprisings since the 1980s “People Power” movements that toppled Duvalier in Haiti, Marcos in the Philippines, Ershad in Bangladesh, and Communist dictatorships across Central and Eastern Europe. That same wave of mass movements unsuccessfully challenged dictators in Nepal, Thailand, Burma, and Tibet. China’s Tiananmen Square student uprising in 1989 was the last of the People Power movements, a tragically suppressed move to weld political freedoms onto the market forces that Deng Xiaoping had unleashed. Like the global 1968 student uprisings before them, the People Power movements of the 1980s spread across national borders, sweeping many parts of the globe. Resistance is contagious; rebellion feels good. The uprisings against poverty wages that are the subject of this book have spread with similar speed. Like other poor people’s movements, they have had to depend on support from allies—labor unions, consumer groups, insurgent politicians, progressive businesspeople.
See also agribusiness; McDonald’s; Walmart; and other multinational corporations and industries COSATU (South African trade union federation), 93 Cosecha (Harvest) activists, 198 cotton production, transformation of, 249 coyotes (human smugglers), 219 Creech, Chrissy, 104 Crenshaw Walmart, Los Angeles, Girshriela Green’s experience working at, 102 Cruise, Tom, 32 Cruz, Evelin: death, 111; and the Pico Rivera Walmart strike, 29, 115; response to managers’ bullying, 107–8; on the struggle for justice, 259; work with OUR Walmart, 30 Cruz, Mariano, 83–84 dairy farming: mega-dairies, 189–90; migrant workers, 195–96. See also agribusiness Dancers’ Union of Bagong Silangan (DUBS), 63 danger zone areas, Manila, 62 Day of Disruption, 2016, 69 “Day of the Landless” actions, 183–84 debts, national, and corporate control over poorer nations, 6 Deida, Lyle, 192 Deida, Lymarie, 198 Dembélé, Antoinette, 184 Democratic Republic of Congo, sexual violence in, 50 Deng Xiaoping, 43 Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV), Vermont, cooperation with ICE, 193 de Quiro, Conrado, 173 Dhaka, Bangladesh, garment factory, 40, 134, 148 Diamond Island, Cambodia, NagaWorld Casino, 22 Diaz, Victor, 196 Dina (Cambodian Worker Information Center facilitator), 162–64 Disneyland workers, hunger strikes by, 90 divorce rights, 50 domestic workers: invisibility, 21; in Manila, organizing approaches, 52–53; working conditions, 52.
The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution by Francis Fukuyama
Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, California gold rush, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, currency manipulation / currency intervention, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, double entry bookkeeping, endogenous growth, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Francisco Pizarro, Hernando de Soto, hiring and firing, invention of agriculture, invention of the printing press, Khyber Pass, land reform, land tenure, means of production, offshore financial centre, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, principal–agent problem, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Right to Buy, Scramble for Africa, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), spice trade, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
By breaking the link between individual effort and reward, collectivization undermined incentives to work, leading to mass famines in Russia and China, and severely reducing agricultural productivity. In the former USSR, the 4 percent of land that remained privately owned accounted for almost one-quarter of total agricultural output. In China, once collective farms were disbanded in 1978 under the leadership of the reformer Deng Xiaoping, agricultural output doubled in the space of just four years. A good deal of theorizing about the importance of private property rights concerns what is called the tragedy of the commons. Grazing fields in traditional English villages were collectively owned by the village’s inhabitants; since no one could be excluded from access to these fields, whose resources were depletable, they were overused and made worthless.
Even today, the Chinese family remains a powerful institution that jealously guards its autonomy against political authority. There has been an inverse correlation between the strength of the family and the strength of the state. During the decrepitude of the Qing Dynasty in the nineteenth century, southern China’s powerful lineages took over control of most local affairs.24 When China decollectivized under Deng Xiaoping’s household responsibility reforms in 1978, the peasant family sprang back to life and became one of the chief engines of the economic miracle that subsequently unfolded in the People’s Republic.25 The Legalists, by contrast, were forward looking and saw Confucianism and its glorification of the family as obstacles to the consolidation of political power. They had little use for Confucianism’s delicate moral injunctions and obligations.
It endures in the countless Chinese mothers around the world who save money to send their children to the best possible schools and push them to excel in standardized examinations. The self-satisfaction that led Emperor Chengu’s successors to cancel long-distance voyages has been replaced by an extraordinary willingness of Chinese leaders to learn from foreign experiences and adopt them when they seem practically useful. It was Deng Xiaoping, the statesman who inaugurated China’s opening to the world, who said, “It doesn’t matter whether the cat is white or black as long as it catches mice.” It is far likelier that cultural attitudes toward science, learning, and innovation explain why China did so poorly in the global economic race in previous centuries, and is doing so well at the present, rather than any fundamental defect in its political institutions.
Age of Discovery: Navigating the Risks and Rewards of Our New Renaissance by Ian Goldin, Chris Kutarna
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, AltaVista, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, bitcoin, Bonfire of the Vanities, clean water, collective bargaining, Colonization of Mars, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Dava Sobel, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, double helix, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, experimental economics, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, full employment, Galaxy Zoo, global pandemic, global supply chain, Hyperloop, immigration reform, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial cluster, industrial robot, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, Islamic Golden Age, Johannes Kepler, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, low cost airline, low cost carrier, low skilled workers, Lyft, Malacca Straits, mass immigration, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, New Urbanism, non-tariff barriers, Occupy movement, On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres, open economy, Panamax, Pearl River Delta, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, post-Panamax, profit motive, rent-seeking, reshoring, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart grid, Snapchat, special economic zone, spice trade, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Stuxnet, The Future of Employment, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trade route, transaction costs, transatlantic slave trade, uber lyft, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, We are the 99%, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, working poor, working-age population, zero day
Since many of them were poor, gradually this term came to refer to underdeveloped countries in general (now such labels are considered pejorative). Today, this map is obsolete. By the 1980s, the failings of centrally planned economies—clunky industries, perverted incentives, uninterested workers—had become painfully obvious, and even the biggest among them bowed to economic reality. Deng Xiaoping opened up China, and his then 1-billion-person economy began to normalize trade relations with the West. Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev pronounced his perestroika (“restructuring”). Economic collapse across a wide range of countries, from the Philippines to Zambia, Mexico, Poland, Chile, Bangladesh, Ghana, Korea, Morocco and others, led them all in search of a better growth model. Import substitution, whereby countries raised trade walls against each other so that they could nurture their own industries at home, proved a failure: the industries could not achieve scale or excellence on the strength of domestic demand alone, nor were they strong enough to compete outside their tariff-padded walls.
They include some 150 regional hubs of 5–10 million inhabitants like China’s Changsha, Brazil’s Joinville and Mexico’s Veracruz; a few hundred midsize growth cities of 1 to 5 million, like India’s Ahmedabad and Russia’s Sochi—often built around local natural resources or industrial clusters; and thousands of smaller boomtowns few of us could find on a map, such as Hengshan, Leibo, Kuchaman City, Konch, Caxias, Timon, Escobedo and Abasolo. China leads the urbanization story. Between 1982 and 1986, the dismantling of state-planned agriculture released surplus workers from their rural posts. China’s urban population catapulted from about 200 million to almost 400 million people in four short, hectic years of transformation.48 China’s next urban boom began after 1992: Deng Xiaoping embarked on his historic Southern Tour of China’s southeast coastal region (during which he may have proclaimed, “To get rich is glorious”), solidified pro-market reforms as Communist Party dogma, and prompted an export-driven expansion that lured rural labor to the coast. Shenzhen, on China’s Pearl River Delta, became the modern-day Seville. A fishing village of some 10,000 people during the 1970s, it was anointed a Special Economic Zone in 1979 and reached 2.5 million inhabitants over the next decade.
See also Catholic Church; Protestant Reformation citizenship, 81, 230, 248, 260–1 climate change, 4, 183, 200, 211, 231, 251–4, 260 Clinton, Bill, 24 Cold War, 10, 21–3, 41, 90, 165, 242 collective dangers, 166–7 collective doubt and diminishing returns, 153–5 and missed expectations, 152–3 in the Renaissance, 150–1 and statistical stagnation, 151–2 collective effort, 141–2 cathedrals, 142–5 citizen science platforms, 148–9 language, 145–7 libraries, 143–5 in the Renaissance, 142–4 and scale, 142–9 collective genius, 132–9 Columbus, Christopher, 1, 7, 19, 39, 60, 67, 143, 150–1, 157, 242, 253 communism and China, 24, 54, 223, 265 and Iron Curtain, 21 complexity and climate change, 200 and cognitive blind spots, 176 and disease, 186 and education, 79 and entanglement, 64–8 and finance, 45–50, 189–90, 214, 227 and flow of ideas, 134–5 international investment flows, 49 and people, 50–60 and policy, 254–5 and printing, 28, 135 in the Renaissance, 2, 7 and supply chains, 43–4 and systemic risk, 8, 175–8, 189–90, 198, 200–1 and technology, 60–4, 136, 198 and trade, 39–44 and video, 34–5 and virtues, 257 concentration and climate change, 200–1 and inequality, 23, 214, 225, 227, 262 and infrastructure, 192–7 and place, 246, 247–8 and systemic risk, 8, 175, 178–9, 186, 190–7, 254–6 and urbanization, 55 Congo, Democratic Republic of, 181, 183 connectivity beyond connected (entanglement), 64–8 and competition, 66–8 and extremism, 205, 207–8 and finance, 45–50 and the New Renaissance, 241–3, 246–9, 255, 259, 266 and people, 50–60 in the Renaissance, 2, 7 and social stresses, 230 and systemic risk, 8, 175–6, 184, 186–7, 189, 192, 194, 196–201 and technology, 31–4, 60–4 and trade, 39–44 Constantinople, 10, 18, 29, 55, 75, 164, 194, 248 convergence, 94 Copernicus, Nicolaus, 1, 29, 105–8, 110–12, 132–5, 141, 150, 236–8 Cortés, Hernán, 19 Crick, Francis, 112 crowdsourcing, 239 Cuba, 19, 24 D-Wave Systems, 126 da Feltre, Bernardino, 204 da Feltre, Vittorino, 80–1 da Gama, Vasco, 1, 18–19, 39–40, 63, 194 da Vinci, Leonardo, 6, 9–10, 132–5, 141, 213, 229, 246, 264, 266 Mona Lisa, 1, 109, 110 Vitruvian Man, 70, 71 DeGeneres, Ellen, 33 della Mirandola, Giovanni Pico, 69–70, 256–6 democracy, 22–5, 68, 89–90, 211, 219 and corruption, 226 defined, 23 democratic revolutions, 22–3 and new maps, 252 and protest, 221–2, 224, 228 and stagnation, 230 Deng Xiaoping, 21, 54 deregulation, 45, 48, 187, 191, 196, 227 Dias, Bartholomew, 18 Dickson, Leonard, 158 digitization, 30–2 and amplification of speech, 35, 237, 261 cloud services, 33, 198 freelance platforms, 111 and group intelligence, 36 impacts, 32–7 international data flows, 34 of shipping, 62 video-sharing, 34–5 See also Internet disease, 2, 7–8, 74, 83–4, 91, 93–4, 127, 129, 153, 155, 162–4, 225 syphilis, 175–7, 179, 205 and systemic risk, 173–7, 179–87 See also health and medicine; pandemics division.
The Jakarta Method: Washington's Anticommunist Crusade and the Mass Murder Program That Shaped Our World by Vincent Bevins
Albert Einstein, American ideology, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, centre right, colonial rule, crony capitalism, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, Gini coefficient, income inequality, land reform, market fundamentalism, megacity, Nelson Mandela, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, South China Sea, structural adjustment programs, union organizing
These were the years in which Mao was sidelined as a result of the disastrous Great Leap Forward, launched in 1958. Suspicious that the Soviets were trying to hold him back, he ignored their agricultural advice and launched a wildly utopian farming program. Millions died in the resulting famine, and the other leaders of the Chinese Communist Party put the blame, rightfully, on Chairman Mao. He was forced to resign from party and national leadership, and starting in 1960 watched as Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping took control of the economy, reintroduced small-scale capitalism, and temporarily reduced Mao to an ideological figurehead.6 More importantly, the PKI didn’t think it had to take orders from anybody.7 It was now the third-largest communist party in the world, the largest outside China and the Soviet Union, and its strategy of nonviolent, direct engagement with the masses had led to impressive results.
Historians who study violence in Latin America believe that 1966 in Guatemala was the first time the region suffered from disappearances as a tactic of state terror.21 The People’s Republic of China October 1 is a special date on the Communist Chinese calendar. It’s National Day, the celebration of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, which turned sixteen years old in 1965. When Mao, Zhou Enlai, and Deng Xiaoping gave speeches that day in Tiananmen Square, some Indonesian students and leftists were in the crowd.22 At a banquet afterward, the Indonesians were the largest foreign delegation.23 As Suharto consolidated control over a new regime in Indonesia, anticommunists used the coincidence of that date to make bad faith accusations that China had somehow engineered the September 30th Movement. Beijing had neither the ability nor the intention to change Indonesia’s government; instead, Chinese officials were profoundly confused as to what was happening.24 At first, they believed a genuine right-wing coup had been stopped; then they thought that Sukarno would regain control of the country and continue to govern with the PKI supporting him; then they were alarmed that Sukarno was unwilling or unable to stop the Army from raiding the homes of Chinese embassy staff in Jakarta.
The Khmer Rouge were driven into the forests and mountains along the Thai border. Vietnam took over most of the country, closed down the killing fields, and allowed Cambodians to return to the cities under a government of their own creation. Around a quarter of Cambodians were dead.30 The United States did not celebrate the fall of the murderous Khmer Rouge. China, which had been moving closer to Washington since Nixon’s visit in 1973, was allied with Pol Pot. Deng Xiaoping was furious, and unwilling to tolerate what he perceived as Vietnam’s aggression against China’s ally. He resolved to invade Vietnam, and told the US about the plan. President Carter said he could not openly condone an attack but assured Deng he understood that “China cannot allow Vietnam to pursue aggression with impunity,” and he privately promised to support Beijing if the Soviets threatened to assist the Vietnamese.31 The Chinese invasion of Vietnam in 1979 is often forgotten, for two reasons.
The Haves and the Have-Nots: A Brief and Idiosyncratic History of Global Inequality by Branko Milanovic
Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, colonial rule, crony capitalism, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deglobalization, Deng Xiaoping, endogenous growth, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, full employment, Gini coefficient, high net worth, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, Joseph Schumpeter, means of production, open borders, Pareto efficiency, plutocrats, Plutocrats, purchasing power parity, Simon Kuznets, very high income, Vilfredo Pareto, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
The economic rise of Pacific Asia, spreading from Japan to Singapore to South Korea to Taiwan, then to Malaysia, increased wealth in these regions to the level of advanced Western countries. These countries became practically a part of the first (rich) world. They also developed institutions (democracy) similar to those existing in the first world. In addition, China’s economic rise combined with the ascendance of Deng Xiaoping and his conservative successors who showed a marked lack of interest in “typical” third world issues further undermined the cohesiveness of the third world. India, too, became much more economically than ideologically minded. It did not seem clear any longer what the third world countries may have in common, and the Non-Aligned Movement, so active in the past, became moribund. Issues of economic growth (or lack of it), religious cleavages, and regional tensions now visibly replaced the erstwhile, always more proclaimed than real, third world solidarity.
society and taxation and wages and welfare Carnegie, Andrew Cassius Dio Cavafy, Constantine Center of Reception and Emergency Aid, Italy Chad Charity Chávez, Hugo Chelsea soccer club Chiang Kai-shek Chile China direct foreign investment in economic growth in GDP per capita in Gini coefficient for global inequality and growth rate in household surveys in income distribution in intercountry inequality and interpersonal inequality and population in price level in Chongqing, China Christianization Citizenship Clark, Gregory Class income distribution and interpersonal inequality and society and solidarity and Clinton, Bill Cohen, Joshua Collins, Reverend William Colquhoun, Robert Commodus (Emperor) Communism intercountry inequality and interpersonal inequality and The Communist Manifesto (Marx) Communist Party Congo Constantine the Great (Emperor) Coprosperity sphere Corsica Cosmopolitans (in political philosophy) Crassus, Marcus Croesus, Greek King Cuba Cultural Revolution (China) Czech Republic Czechoslovakia Dalton, Hugh Darcy, Mr. Das Kapital (Marx) De Silva, Lula Deglobalization See also Globalization Democracy Democratic Party, Democrats Deng Xiaoping Denmark Developed countries household surveys and interpersonal inequality and technology and Discrimination Disney Productions Djilas, Milovan Domestic Servant Pocket Register Dominican Republic Dostoyevsky, Fyodor Dreams from My Father (Obama) East Germany Economic development in China education and income distribution and in India interpersonal inequality and social monopoly and taxation and technology and Economics geopolitics and income distribution and neoclassical Edgeworth, Francis Education economic development and interpersonal inequality and poor and socialism and taxation and wealth and Egypt “80/20 Law,” El Salvador Elites communist income distribution and interpersonal inequality and Employment government socialism and Engels, Friedrich England.
Hit Refresh: The Quest to Rediscover Microsoft's Soul and Imagine a Better Future for Everyone by Satya Nadella, Greg Shaw, Jill Tracie Nichols
"Robert Solow", 3D printing, Amazon Web Services, anti-globalists, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bretton Woods, business process, cashless society, charter city, cloud computing, complexity theory, computer age, computer vision, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, equal pay for equal work, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fault tolerance, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Grace Hopper, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, Mars Rover, Minecraft, Mother of all demos, NP-complete, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, place-making, Richard Feynman, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, special economic zone, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, telepresence, telerobotics, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Tim Cook: Apple, trade liberalization, two-sided market, universal basic income, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, young professional, zero-sum game
Charter cities, on the other hand, are experimental reform zones engineered entirely to create jobs and growth. Citizens could opt in or not. Some will be ready and some won’t. His illustration is Hong Kong and Shenzhen. Hong Kong, located in China but ruled for generations by Great Britain, was free of antimarket Communist rule and became an economic engine, attracting and training workers. Deng Xiaoping, grasping that China needed to become more open in order to grow, created a de facto charter city in nearby Shenzhen, which could take advantage of its neighbor’s talent pool and infrastructure. Unlike the rest of China, Shenzhen’s rules would be attractive to foreign investment and international trade. He knew that Communist China would be slow to embrace these reform zones, but many entrepreneurs and workers would leap at the opportunity.
., 177 Carroll, Pete, 4 Case, Anne, 236 Cavium Networks, 20 CD-ROM, 28 CEO as curator of culture, 100, 241 “disease,” 92 panoramic view of, 118 cerebral palsy, 8–10 Chang, Emily, 129 charter city, 229 Cheng, Lili, 197 chess, 198–99 Chik, Joy, 58 child exploitation, 190 Chile, 223, 230 China, 86, 195, 220, 222, 229, 232, 236 chip design, 25 CIA, 169 Cisco, 174 civil liberties, 172–73 civil rights, 24 civil society, 179 Civil War, 188 clarity, 119 Clayton, Steve, 155 client/server era, 45 climate change, 142, 214 Clinton, Hillary, 230 cloud, 13, 41–47, 49, 51–62, 68, 70, 73, 81, 88, 110, 125, 129, 131, 137, 140, 150, 164, 166, 172, 180–81, 186, 189–92, 216, 219, 223–25, 228 cloud-first mission and, 57–58, 70, 76, 79, 83 public, 42–43, 57 Cloud for Global Good, 240–41 Codapalooza, 104 cognition, 89, 150, 152–53 Cohen, Leonard, 10 collaboration, 88, 102–3, 106–8, 126, 135, 163–64, 166, 200 collaborative robots (co-bots), 204 collective IQ, 142, 143 Colombia, 78 Columbia University, 165 Comin, Diego, 216–17, 226 commitment, shared, 77, 119 Common (hip hop artist), 71 Common Objects in Context challenge, 151 communication, 76–77 Compaq, 29 comparative advantage, 222, 228 competition, internal, 52 competitive zeal, 38–39, 70–71, 102 competitors, 39 partnerships and, 78, 125–38 complexity, 25, 224 computers early, 21–22, 24–26 future platforms, 110–11 programs by, 153–54 computing power, massive, 150–51 Conard, Edward, 220 concepts, 122–23, 141 consistency, 77–78, 182 Constitution Today, The (Amar), 186–87 constraints, 119 construction companies, 153 consumers, 49–50, 222 context, shared, 56–57 Continental Congress, 185 Continuum, 73 Convent of Jesus and Mary (India), 19 Cook, Tim, 177 cook stoves, 43 coolness, 75–76 core business, 142 Cortana, 125, 152, 156–58, 195, 201 Couchbase company, 58 counterintuitive strategy, 56–57 Coupland, Douglas, 74 Courtois, Jean-Philippe, 82 courts, 184–85 Covington and Burling lawyers, 3 Cranium games, 7 creativity, 58, 101, 119, 201, 207, 242 credit rating, 43, 204–5 Creed (film), 44–45 cricket, 18–22, 31, 35–40, 115 Cross-country Historical Adoption of Technology (CHAT), 217 culture bias and, 205 “live site first,” 61 three Cs and, 122–23, 141 transforming, 2, 11, 16, 40, 76–78, 81–82, 84, 90–92, 98–103, 105, 108–10, 113–18, 120, 122–23, 241–42 Culture (Eagleton), 91 Curiosity (Mars rover), 144 customer needs, 42, 59, 73, 80, 83, 88, 99, 101–2, 108, 126, 138 customization, 151 cybersecurity, 171, 190 cyberworld, rules for, 184 data, 60, 151 data analytics, 50 databases, 26 Data General company, 68 data management, 54 data platform, 59 data security, 175–76, 188–89 Deaton, Angus, 236 Deep Blue, 198–99 deep neural networks, 153 Delbene, Kurt, 3, 81–82 Delhi, India, 19, 31, 37 Dell, 63, 87, 127, 129–30 Dell, Michael, 129 democracy, 180 democratization, 4, 13, 69, 127, 148, 151–52 Deng Xiaoping, 229 Depardieu, Gerard, 33 design, 50, 69, 141, 239 desktop software, 27 Detroit, 15, 225, 233 developed economies, 99–100 share of world income, 236 developing economies, 99–100, 217, 225 device management solutions, 58 digital assistants, 142, 156–58, 195–98, 201 digital cable, 28 digital evidence, 191–92 Digital Geneva Convention, 171–72 digital ink, 142 digital literacy, 226–27 digital publishing laws, 185 digital transformation, 70, 126–27, 132, 235 dignity, 205 disabilities, 103, 200 disaster relief, 44 Disney, 150 disruption, 13 distributed systems, 49 diversity, 101–2, 108, 111–17, 205–6, 238, 241 Donne, John, 57 drones, 209, 226 Drucker, Peter, 90 dual users, 79 Dubai, 214, 228 Duke University, 3 Dupzyk, Kevin, 147 D-Wave, 160 Dweck, Carol, 92 dynamic learning, 100 Dynamics, 121 Dynamics 365, 152 dyslexia, 44, 103–4 Eagleton, Terry, 91 earthquakes, 44 EA Sports, 127 economic growth, 211–34 economic inequality, 12, 207–8, 214, 219–21, 225, 227, 236–41 Edge browser, 104 education, 42–44, 78, 97, 104, 106–7, 142, 145, 206–7, 224, 226–28, 234, 236–38 Egypt, 218–19, 223, 225 E-health companies, 222–23 8080 microprocessor, 21 elasticity, 49 electrical engineering (EE), 21–22 elevator and escalator business, 60 Elop, Stephen, 64, 72 email, 27, 169–73, 176 EMC, 129 emotion, 89, 197, 201 emotional intelligence (EQ), 158, 198 empathy, 6–12, 16, 40, 42–43, 93, 101, 133–34, 149, 157, 182, 197, 201, 204, 206, 226, 239, 241 employee resource groups (ERGs), 116–17 employees, 66–68, 75, 138 diversity and, 101, 111–17 empowerment and, 79–80, 126 global summit of, 86–87 hackathon, 10–11 talent development and, 117–18 empowerment, 87–88, 98–99, 106, 108–10, 126 encryption, 161–62, 175, 192–93 energy, generating across company, 119 energy costs, 237 Engelbart, Doug, 142 Engelbart’s Law, 142–43 engineers, 108–9 Enlightiks, 222–23 Enterprise Business, 81 entertainment industry, 126 ethics, 195-210, 239 Europe, 193 Excel, 121 experimental physicists, 162–64 eye-gaze tracking, 10 Facebook, 15, 44, 51, 125, 144, 174, 200, 222 failures, overcoming, 92, 111 Fairfax Financial Holdings, 20 fairness, 236 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 170, 177–78, 189 Federal Communications Commission (FCC), 28 fear of unknown, 110–11 feedback loop, 53 fertilizer, 164 Feynman, Richard, 160 fiefdoms, 52 field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), 161 Fields Medal, 162 firefighters, 43, 56 First Amendment, 185, 190 Flash, 136 focus, 135–36, 138 Foley, Mary Jo, 52 Ford Motor Company, 64 foreign direct investment, 219, 225, 229 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), 173 Fourth Amendment, 185–88, 190, 193 France, 223, 236 Franco, James, 169 Franklin, Benjamin, 186 Freedman, Michael, 162, 166 free speech, 170–72, 175, 179, 185, 190, 238 Fukushima nuclear plant, 44 G20 nations, 219 Galaxy Explorer, 148 game theory, 123–24 Gandhi, Mohandas Mahatma, 16 Gartner Inc., 145 Gates, Bill, 4, 12, 21, 28, 64, 46, 67–69, 73–75, 87, 91, 127, 146, 183, 203 Gavasker, Sunil, 36 GE, 3, 126–27, 237 Gelernter, David, 143, 183 Geneva Convention, Fourth (1949), 171 Georgia Pacific, 29 Germany, 220, 223, 227–36 Gervais, Michael, 4–5 Gini, Corrado, 219 Gini coefficient, 219–21 GLEAM, 117 Gleason, Steve, 10–11 global competitiveness, 78–79, 100–102, 215 global information, policy and, 191 globalization, 222, 227, 235–37 global maxima, 221–22 goals, 90, 136 Goethe, J.W. von, 155 Go (game), 199 Goldman Sachs, 3 Google, 26, 45, 70–72, 76, 127, 160, 173–74, 200 partnership with, 125, 130–32 Google DeepMind, 199 Google Glass, 145 Gordon, Robert, 234 Gosling, James, 26 government, 138, 160 cybersecurity and, 171–79 economic growth and, 12, 223–24, 226–28 policy and, 189–92, 223–28 surveillance and, 173–76, 181 Grace Hopper, 111–14 graph coloring, 25 graphical user interfaces (GUI), 26–27 graphics-processing unit (GPU), 161 Great Convergence, the (Baldwin), 236 Great Recession (2008), 46, 212 Greece, 43 Green Card (film), 33 Guardians of Peace, 169 Gutenberg Bible, 152 Guthrie, Scott, 3, 58, 60, 82, 171 H1B visa, 32–33 habeas corpus, 188 Haber, Fritz, 165 Haber process, 165 hackathon, 103–5 hackers, 169–70, 177, 189, 193 Hacknado, 104 Halo, 156 Hamaker, Jon, 157 haptics, 148 Harvard Business Review, 118 Harvard College, 3 Harvey Mudd College, 112 Hawking, Stephen, 13 Hazelwood, Charles, 180 head-mounted computers, 144–45 healthcare, 41–42, 44, 142, 155–56, 159, 164, 198, 218, 223, 225, 237 Healthcare.gov website, 3, 81, 238 Heckerman, David, 158 Hewlett Packard, 63, 87, 127, 129 hierarchy, 101 Himalayas, 19 Hindus, 19 HIV/AIDS, 159, 164 Hobijn, Bart, 217 Hoffman, Reid, 232, 233 Hogan, Kathleen, 3, 80–82, 84 Holder, Eric, 173–74 Hollywood, 159 HoloLens, 69, 89, 125, 144–49, 236 home improvement, 149 Hong Kong, 229 Hood, Amy (CFO), 3, 5, 82, 90 Horvitz, Eric, 154, 208 hospitals, 42, 78, 145, 153, 223 Hosseini, Professor, 23 Huang, Xuedong, 151 human capital, 223, 226 humanistic approach, 204 human language recognition, 150–51, 154–55 human performance, augmented by technology, 142–43, 201 human rights, 186 Hussain, Mumtaz, 36, 37 hybrid computing, 89 Hyderabad, 19, 36–37, 92 Hyderabad Public School (HPS), 19–20, 22, 37–38, 136 hyper-scale, cloud-first services, 50 hypertext, 142 IBM, 1, 160, 174, 198 IBM Watson, 199–200 ideas, 16, 42 Illustrator, 136 image processing, 24 images, moving, 109 Imagine Cup competition, 149 Immelt, Jeff, 237 Immigration and Naturalization Act (1965), 24, 32–33 import taxes, 216 inclusiveness, 101–2, 108, 111, 113–17, 202, 206, 238 independent software vendor (ISV), 26 India, 6, 12, 17–22, 35–37, 170, 186–87, 222–23, 236 immigration from, 22–26, 32–33, 114–15 independence and, 16–17, 24 Indian Administrative Service (IAS), 16–17, 31 Indian Constitution, 187 Indian Institutes of Technology (IIT), 21, 24 Indian Premier League, 36 IndiaStack, 222–23 indigenous peoples, 78 Indonesia, 223, 225 industrial policy, 222 Industrial Revolution, 215 Fourth or future, 12, 239 information platforms, 206 information technology, 191 Infosys, 222 infrastructure, 88–89, 152–53, 213 innovation, 1–2, 40, 56, 58, 68, 76, 102, 111, 120, 123, 142, 212, 214, 220, 224, 234 innovator’s dilemma, 141–42 insurance industry, 60 Intel, 21, 45, 160, 161 intellectual property, 230 intelligence, 13, 88–89, 126, 150, 154–55, 160, 169, 173, 239 intelligence communities, 173 intensity of use, 217, 219, 221, 224–26 International Congress of the International Mathematical Union, 162 Internet, 28, 30, 48, 79, 97–98, 222 access and, 225–26, 240 security and privacy and, 172–73 Internet Explorer, 127 Internet of Things (IoT), 79, 134, 142, 228 Internet Tidal Wave, 203 Intersé, 3 Interview, The (film), 169–71 intimidation, 38 investment strategy, 90, 142 iOS devices, 59, 72, 123, 132 iPad, 70, 141 iPad Pro, 123–25 iPhone, 70, 72, 85, 121–22, 125, 177–79 Irish data center, 176, 184 Islamic State (ISIS), 177 Istanbul, 214 Jaisimha, M.L., 18, 36–37 Japan, 44, 223, 230 Japanese-American internment, 188 JAVA, 26 Jeopardy (TV show), 199 Jha, Rajesh, 82 jobs, 214, 231, 239–40.
Salt: A World History by Mark Kurlansky
British Empire, clean water, Deng Xiaoping, domestication of the camel, haute cuisine, Hernando de Soto, Honoré de Balzac, invention of movable type, long peace, Mahatma Gandhi, spice trade, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route
—Lu Wenfu, The Gourmet, 1979 In China, southern food, especially Cantonese, is usually said to be the best. But after 1949, when Mao Zedong from Hunan and Deng Xiaoping from Sichuan came to power, the hot spicy food, la, from southwestern China, came into official fashion. “If you don’t eat la, you are not a revolutionary” became a popular saying. In 1959, a restaurant for the political elite was established in a Beijing house of gardened courtyards built for the son of a seventeenth-century emperor. Predictably, it was a Sichuan restaurant, and was simply named the Sichuan Restaurant. Zhou Enlai, the long-time premier, and Deng Xiaoping were regulars. For years it was considered one of the few good restaurants in Communist Beijing. The restaurant remained a symbol of the times when, in 1996, its antique setting was bought by a Hong Kong entrepreneur, who turned the house into a private members-only club with the obsequious gentlemanly service reminiscent of British colonialism.
The brine is still evaporated in pans heated by the gas from the well. In 1835, when the well was drilled, it had an estimated 8,500 cubic meters of gas. In the year 2000, the operators believed it had 1,000 cubic meters left. The Shaanxi guild hall remained a guild hall until the fall of the last emperor. Then it became a local headquarters for the Chinese nationalist movement of Chiang Kai-shek. After the Communists came to power, Deng Xiaoping, a native of Sichuan who became secretary general of the Chinese Communist Party, decided to make it a salt museum. Today in Zigong, there are still some crumbling tile-roofed Chinese houses with the roof tips turned up in the southern style, but most of them are in disrepair, seemingly awaiting demolition. The new buildings seem kitschy spoofs on urban high-rise architecture. As in Beijing, historic monuments were torn down to make way for buildings that will never be completed, that remain concrete and exposed steel rods because the companies building them went bankrupt.
Shadow of the Silk Road by Colin Thubron
This place, Huangling, is only a hundred miles north of modern Xian, but is lost deep in another time of erosion and poverty. Who will come? But the whole site is resurrecting as a national shrine, and already the older temple is filled with the memorial stelae of China’s statesmen offering homage to ‘the father of the nation’. Here is the stone calligraphy of Sun Yatsen from 1912, and of Chiang Kai-shek, predictably coarse; of Mao Zedong, who was later to condemn the Yellow Emperor as feudal; of Deng Xiaoping and the hated Li Peng. The clamour of restoration dies as you climb the track where it snakes through the cypress woods. From somewhere sounds the drilling of a woodpecker, and human voices echo and fade above you. Here and there a yellow flag on a bamboo pole marks the way. You are sinking back in time. Close to the summit the path becomes a stone stairway, and the trees turn phantasmal, their trunks twisted like sticks of barley-sugar or wrenched open on swirling slate-blue veins.
‘Maybe after a year I’ll have five people studying Chinese–all new friends. Here!…here!…and here!’ He planted them in space, like aerial seeds. ‘Soon maybe one of the friends will tell me: Oh, Mr Huang, I have good news–my father or my uncle works in a company that needs…’ So he was planning to make the move most coveted now: out of administration and into business. He had grown up in the new China of Deng Xiaoping, the land where riches were glorious, an arena of accelerating mobility. But I felt an amazed misgiving for him. I said: ‘Do you know anything about Brazil?’ ‘Brazil is in South America. It has some economic problems. Many people have no job. But some economies are better than here in China, some companies. I’ll make contacts in these businesses…’–he began planting airy seeds again–‘touch…touch…touch!
The Shah flees 1980–88 Iran–Iraq war 1989 Death of Ayatollah Khomeini The West 680 Battle of Kerbela 800 Charlemagne crowned Holy Roman Emperor 1099 First Crusade captures Jerusalem 1260 Mamelukes turn back the Mongols 1453 Ottoman Turks capture Constantinople 1498 Portuguese pioneer the seaway round Africa 1914–18 First World War 1917 The Russian Revolution 1939–45 Second World War 1984–97 Kurdish rebellions in Turkey 2001 World Trade Center attack 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq Searchable Terms Abbasid Caliphate Abdullah (Kurdish driver) Abdurahman, King Afghanistan journey in Afrasiab Africa, seaway round Aga Khan Ahmadjan Ahuramazda (god) Aimaq (nomads) Ain Jalut, battle of Akayev, President of Kyrgyzstan Akbar Khan al- for names beginning al- see under following element of name Alamut Alamut river Alaric Alexander the Great Alexandria Ali (statistician) Ali, Caliph Alik (ex-policeman) Aloban (Nestorian priest) Altun mountains Amanullah, King America see United States of America Amin, Hafezullah Amirali (artist and poet) Amithaba (Buddha of Infinite Light) Amu Darya/Oxus river Anatolia Ancestors, claimed see also Manas Andijan Andkvoi Annar (Kyrgyz) Ansari Antioch Antiochus IV, King Antoninus Pius, emperor Apak Hoja mausoleum, Kashgar Apollo Arabian Incense Road Arabs Aral Sea Arhun (watchman) Armenia Armenians Aryans Asmu, Imam: tomb Assassins Assyria Assyrian church At-Bashy Athens Ata, Mohammed Attar Augustus Caesar, emperor Aurelian, emperor Azerbaijan Iranian Azeris Babur, emperor Babylon Bacon, Francis Bactria Bactrians Badakshan Baghdad Baisanghur, prince Balkh Barnabas, St Basra ‘Beauty of Kroran, The’ Behesht-e Zahra Beijing see also Tiananmen Square Bethlehem Bibi Khanum mosque Samarkand Bihzad bin Laden, Osama Birecik Bishkek Black Jade river, Khotan Black Mountains Bodh Gaya Bolsheviks Bombyx mori (silk moth) Book of Changes Book of Odes Book of Rites Borders Brazil British, the Buddhism in China Bukhara Byron, Robert Byzantine empire Caesar, Julius Canada Carrhae, battle of (53 BC) Caspian Sea Caucasus, the Central Asia time line see also names of countrie Chaldean Church Changan (Xian) palace ruins see also Xian chariots Charklik (Ruoqiang) Charlemagne, emperor Chatyr lake Chechens Chechnya Cherchen (Qiemo) salt plateau of Chiang Kai-shek Chilamachin China journey in time line Chinese (outside China) Chingiz (builder) Chinon Christianity in Antioch in China in modern Iran and Mongols Chrysostom, St John Chychkan river Cicero Cizre Cleopatra Cologne cathedral Columbus, Christopher Communism compass, the magnetic Confucianism Confucius Conrad of Montferrat Constantine the Great, emperor Constantinople Crassus, triumvir Crete crossbows Crusades Cultural Revolution Cyrus, King of Persia Czechoslovakia Da Qin Dalai Lama Damascus Damghan Daniar (Kyrgyz) Daniel (builder) Daphne, groves of (near Antioch) Dasht-e-Laili Demavend, Mount Deng Xiaoping Deobandi schools, Pakistan Dharamsala Dokuz Khatun Dolkon (Uighur) Dost Mohammed, King Dostum, Abdul Rashid Dowlatabad drugs Dubs, Homer Dudayev, General Dunhuang East Turkestan Islamic Movement Edward I, King of England Egypt Eighth Imam (Shia) Elburz mountains Eleanor of Castile, queen Elnura (Kyrgyz) England English language Euclid Euphrates Europe Fatima (daughter of Mohammed) Feng (Hui) Fergana Fergana valley Firdausi Shahnama tomb First Pass under Heaven, The Fitzgerald, Edward Flanders Fraser, James (British traveller) Friendship Bridge Friday Mosque, Herat Gang of Four Gansu corridor Gate of Sorrows, Jiayuguan Gawhar Shad, queen mausoleum of Gawhad Shah mosque and college, Herat Gawhar Shad mosque, Meshed Gazargah Gazur Khan Gelia (artist’s wife) Genghis Khan Germans Germany al-Ghazali Ghorid dynasty Gobi desert Goes, Bento de Golden Horde ‘Golden House’, Antioch Golmud Goths Great Game Great Leap Forward Great Wall Greece Gromov, General Guanyin (goddess) Guarong (Song Guorong) Gul (Uighur) Gulag Gulja Guma Gumbaz mosque, Namangan gunpowder Gutenberg Gwelin Hafizullah (Afghan) Hairatan Hakkari Hamed Han Hangzhou Hari river Haroun al-Rashid Hasan-i-Sabah Hazara Hazrat Ali shrine, Mazar-e- Sharif Heavenly mountains see Tian Shan mountains Hekmatyar, Gulbuddin Helena, St Herat Herodotus Hindu Kush Hinduism Homs Hongming (film-maker) Horses Hu Ji (historian) Huang Huangling Huatuguo Hui Hulagu, emperor Hunan Huns 70 134 Husain Baiqara, sultan Hussein (Iranian acquaintance) Hussein (son of Caliph Ali) Hussein, Saddam Ibn BattutaId Kah mosque, Kashgar Ilkhanid dynasty India Indians Innocent IV, Pope Inventions, Chinese see also crossbows, stirrups Iran journey in time line see also Iran-Iraq war Iran-Iraq war Iranian Azerbaijan Iraq see also Iran-Iraq war Isfahan, Qadi of Islam/Muslims in China see also Mevlevi sect; Naqshbandi sect; Shia; Sunni Ismail, 281, 282 Ismailis see also Assassins Israelis Italy see also Romans; Rome jade Jade Gate Jade Road Jafar (trainee doctor) Japan Jaxartes (Syr Darya) river Jelaleddin Rumi Jerusalem Crusader king of Patriarch of Jesuit missionaries Jesus Christ Jews Jiahuang (painter) Jiayuguan Jielu Jiuquan Jumgal valley Justinian, emperor Juvenal Kabul Kalan minaret, Bukhara Kanikay Karakoram Karakoram mountains Karakoram Highway Karimov, President of Uzbekistan Karzai, President of Afghanistan Kashgar Kazakhs Kazakhstan Kekemeren river Kenkol ravine Kerbela, battle of (AD 680) Keriya Khameini, Supreme Leader, Iran Khan, Ismail Khan family, Bukhara Khatami, President of Iran Khoja Parsa shrine, Balkh Khomeini, Ayatollah tomb of Khorasan Khotan Kitbogha Kizilkum desert Kiziltepe Kochkor mazar near Kochoi, tomb of Kokand Koran Korea Koreans Kublai Khan, emperor Kuchi Kun Lun mountains Kunduz Kurds Kushans Kyanizyak-khatun, princess Kyrgyz Kyrgyzstan journey in Labrang Living Buddha of Lady of the Silk Worms (Lei-tzu) Lanchou University Lanzhou Lao-tzu Lattimore, Owen Lei-tzu see Lady of the Silk Worms Lenin (village) Lenin, V.I.
Enriching the Earth: Fritz Haber, Carl Bosch, and the Transformation of World Food Production by Vaclav Smil
agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Haber-Bosch Process, invention of gunpowder, Louis Pasteur, Pearl River Delta, precision agriculture, recommendation engine, The Design of Experiments
Given a very close fit between China’s pre-1958 average per capita food supply (2,100–2,200 kcal/day) and demand (age- and sex-adjusted needs were about 2,200 kcal/day), the combination of such irrational decisions had a drastic effect on food availability: by the spring of 1959 there was famine in 1/3 of China’s provinces. Weather only exacerbated the suffering.48 During the three years from 1959 to 1961 at least 30 million Chinese died in the greatest famine in human history.49 More pragmatic policies favored by Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping finally put the end to that tragedy. One of their results was the purchase of five midsized ammonia-urea plants from the United Kingdom and the 168 Chapter 8 Netherlands between 1963 and 1965. By 1965 synthetic fertilizers supplied more than 1/4 of all nitrogen. Then the more normal development was cut short again in 1966 with the launching of Mao’s destructive time of ideological frenzy, political vendettas, and localized civil war that became known, most incongruously, as the Cultural Revolution.
Food energy in the PRC. 1977. Current Scene 15:1–11; Smil, V. 1981. China’s food: availability, requirements, composition, prospects. Food Policy 6:67–77. 52. CIA (44), pp. 6–7; Chang (44), pp. 50–52. 53. Based on consumption and production figures for calendar years in the FAO’s database at http:/ /apps.fao.org. 54. China’s annual per capita meat consumption has more than doubled since 1979, the beginning of Deng Xiaoping’s reforms. The FAO’s food balance sheets (http:/ /apps.fao.org) 306 Notes to Chapter 8 show that nationwide the average meat supply almost tripled between 1979 and 1996 to more than 40 kg/capita, but Chinese consumption surveys indicate a less dramatic growth, with rural per capita consumption rising from just 6 kg/year in 1978 to about 13 kg/year by 1995; urban consumption in 1995 was about 24 kg/year; see State Statistical Bureau. 1996.
Name Index Abegg, Richard, 68, 72, 227 Arrhenius, Svante, 72, 229 Commoner, Barry, 189 Crookes, William, 58–60 Bacque, Henry, 46 Beck, Christoph, 99 Beijerinck, Martinus, 15 Bergius, Friedrich, 85, 224 Bernthsen, August, 76, 80 Berthelot, Marceline, 13 Berthollet, Claude-Louis, 3, 5, 61 Birkeland, Kristian, 53 Bohn, René, 75 Borchardt, Philipp, 102 Borlaug, Norman, 139 Bosch, Carl, 64, 75 Boussingault, Jean-Baptiste, 5–6, 12–13 Bradley, Charles, 53 Brauer, Eberhard, 98 Brunck, Heinrich von, 62, 64, 80, 82–83, 87 Buchner, Hans, 2 Buck, John L., 31, 35 Bunsen, Robert Wilhelm, 66 Bunte, Hans, 67 Deng, Xiaoping, 167 Deville, Henri-Étienne Saint-Claire, 61–62 Döbereiner, Johann W., 62 Duisberg, Carl, 87, 223 Dumas, Jean-Baptiste André, 5 Cagniard-Latour, Charles, 2 Caro, Nikodemus, 51 Casale, Luigi, 114 Cato, Marcus, 22, 30 Cavendish, Henry, 53 Chaptal, Jean Antoine, 4 Châtelier, Henry Louis Le, 61, 64, 201 Claude, Georges, 113 Columella, Lucius Junius, 27, 30 Gayon, Ulysse, 16 Gilbert, John Henry, 5, 11–13 Guyton de Morveau, Louis Bernard, 3, 61 Ehrlich, Paul, 103 Einstein, Albert, 103, 231 Engelhorn, Friedrich, 75 Engler, Carl, 76 Erdmann, Otto, 62 Eyde, Samuel, 53 Fahrenhorst, Johannes, 100, 102 Fauser, Giacomo, 114 Fischer, Emil, 103 Fourcroy, Antoine-François de, 3, 41, 61 Frank, Adolf, 51 Frank, Albert, 15 Fulda, Ludwig, 103 Haber (Nathan), Charlotte, 228–229 Haber (Immerwahr), Clara, 68 Haber, Eva, 228 Haber, Fritz, 61, 64, 83, 86, 223 Haber, Hermann, 68, 226, 229–230 330 Name Index Haber, Ludwig Fritz, 228 Haber, Paula, 65 Haber, Siegfried, 65 Hahn, Otto, 231 Hellriegel, Hermann, 14–16 Hessberger, Johannes, 75 Hildebrand, Georg F., 62 Hitler, Adolf, 224, 229–230 Hoffmann, August Wilhelm von, 66 Humboldt, Alexander von, 41 Ingenhousz, Jan, 1 Pasteur, Louis, 2 Pierce, William, 202 Planck, Max, 230 Pope, William, 231 Priestley, Joseph, 1, 3, 53 Raffles, Stamford, 31 Ramsay, William, 61–62, 69, 71 Rathenau, Walter, 103 Revelle, Roger, 178 Rossignol, Robert Le, 61, 71–74, 77–79, 81, 84, 201–202, 229 Rutherford, Daniel, 3 Jost, Fritz, 70, 100, 201 Keller, Hans, 102 Knietsch, Rudolf, 75, 86, 91 Knorr, Ludwig, 67 König, A., 74, 77 Koppel, Leopold, 226, 231 Kranz, Julius, 81 Krassa, Paul, 78, 81 Krauch, Carl, 98, 105, 225 Kuhlmann, Charles F., 99 Landis, W.
Aerotropolis by John D. Kasarda, Greg Lindsay
3D printing, air freight, airline deregulation, airport security, Akira Okazaki, Asian financial crisis, back-to-the-land, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, big-box store, blood diamonds, borderless world, Boris Johnson, British Empire, business cycle, call centre, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, Charles Lindbergh, Clayton Christensen, cleantech, cognitive dissonance, commoditize, conceptual framework, credit crunch, David Brooks, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, digital map, disruptive innovation, edge city, Edward Glaeser, failed state, food miles, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frank Gehry, fudge factor, full employment, future of work, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, global supply chain, global village, gravity well, Haber-Bosch Process, Hernando de Soto, hive mind, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, inflight wifi, intangible asset, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invention of the telephone, inventory management, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Joan Didion, Kangaroo Route, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, kremlinology, low cost airline, Marchetti’s constant, Marshall McLuhan, Masdar, mass immigration, McMansion, megacity, Menlo Park, microcredit, Network effects, New Economic Geography, new economy, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, Peter Calthorpe, Peter Thiel, pets.com, pink-collar, pre–internet, RFID, Richard Florida, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, savings glut, Seaside, Florida, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, spinning jenny, starchitect, stem cell, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, sustainable-tourism, telepresence, the built environment, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Nature of the Firm, thinkpad, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, Tony Hsieh, trade route, transcontinental railway, transit-oriented development, traveling salesman, trickle-down economics, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight, white picket fence, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game
You’d need only one factory, or one person like Casey to orchestrate all the others. The story of China in the coming decades is where they will fly once their top export is ideas, like our own. This transformation has been hastened by the global downturn. Abandoned by many of their shadowy clients, ambitious companies like Casey’s are learning to innovate instead. Both stories begin in Shenzhen. Liam Casey arrived in 1996, a few years after paramount leader Deng Xiaoping declared “to get rich is glorious” while passing through the city on his farewell tour. Deng is the father of Shenzhen, having chosen this sleepy fishing village as the first of China’s “special economic zones” in 1980. Foreign firms were invited to open shop here with few constraints or taxes, triggering the transformation of the Pearl River Delta into “the factory of the world” and Shenzhen into the “Overnight City,” having grown two-hundred-fold since then.
Until then, the layout is hazy and the figures are rounded. The impact of the FedEx hub and its customers in orbit is officially pegged at $63 billion by 2020, compounded by billions more once the battery makers and windmill fabricators envisioned by Beijing are compelled to set up shop around it. Adjacent to the hub is an industrial park modeled on the Guangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone, one of the first commissioned by Deng Xiaoping. Factory zones are to China’s instant cities what the exurbs were to American ones—the simplest formula for propelling growth. A common strategy is to clear the land, flip it to factory owners at below-market rates, and subsidize their investors with tax breaks. The GETDZ pioneered this approach to become the world’s factory for chewing gum, toothpaste, and artificial flavors. The aerotropolis is aiming higher, at the microchip and motherboard makers stranded around FedEx’s abandoned hub in Subic Bay.
It’s too early to tell whether the central bank will succeed in deflating bubbles (or defer-ring them into the future), although one thing is certain: if beggaring the world is what it takes to raise a billion of its own people out of poverty, China is determined to try. Maybe the most notable feature of its record-breaking build-out is where it’s taking place: in the west. Only a few years ago, government investment was still focused along the coast, especially in the Delta, Shanghai, and Beijing. “Let some get rich first,” Deng Xiaoping had ordained, which meant life expectancy in Guizhou province is a decade shorter than in the Delta, only a few hundred miles away. Such massive inequality is the primary source of China’s unrest—an estimated eighty thousand protests each year in rural towns and villages, suppressed and kept (mostly) out of sight. Despite the size of its coastal megacities, China is less urbanized than its peers.
The WikiLeaks Files: The World According to US Empire by Wikileaks
affirmative action, anti-communist, banking crisis, battle of ideas, Boycotts of Israel, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, central bank independence, Chelsea Manning, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, drone strike, Edward Snowden, energy security, energy transition, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, experimental subject, F. W. de Klerk, facts on the ground, failed state, financial innovation, Food sovereignty, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, future of journalism, high net worth, invisible hand, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, liberal world order, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, Mohammed Bouazizi, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, Northern Rock, Philip Mirowski, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, statistical model, structural adjustment programs, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game, éminence grise
No world region received more “aid.”17 Driven by Cold War exigencies—that is, an obsession with the containment or rollback of communism at any cost—the US ended up supporting anticommunist Southeast Asian dictators such as Ferdinand Marcos (Philippines) and Suharto (Indonesia), who committed egregious human rights violations and stubbornly blocked any form of genuine democratization at home.18 THE UNIPOLAR MOMENT By the 1980s, a wave of democratization was sweeping across East Asia, toppling authoritarian regimes in the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan. But “regime change” did not significantly alter these countries’ strategic relationship with—and dependency on—the US. Meanwhile, post-Mao Beijing, under Deng Xiaoping, emerged as a major Western strategic partner, further isolating Moscow and post-unification Hanoi.19 The decisive collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 sparked a triumphalist celebration of American prowess, with conservative thinkers such as Francis Fukuyama prematurely declaring “The End of History.” For Fukuyama, the apparent defeat of communism supposedly underscored the emergence of democratic capitalism as the ideological endpoint of human history, with US hegemony defining and underpinning the architecture of the post–Cold War global order.20 America’s wholesale embrace of its newfound role as the sole global superpower was starkly evident in key strategic documents such as the infamous 1992 Defence Planning Guidance, under the administration of George H.
Washington’s critics, however, maintain that the US is using the maritime disputes as a pretext to isolate China, increase arms exports to allies, and justify as well as further expand its already significant military presence in the region. Chinese leaders argue vehemently that extra-regional actors such as the US should not intervene in what are essentially bilateral, regional disputes in Southeast Asia. CHINA With the disappearance of the Soviet Union, communist China represented a potential source of threat to US hegemony in Asia in the post–Cold War era. But the pragmatic leadership of Deng Xiaoping—who built on the nascent rapprochement between Chairman Mao and President Nixon in the early 1970s—and of his successors, especially Jiang Zemin, paved the way for almost three decades of “strategic co-habitation” between Beijing and Washington.33 For much of the post–Cold War period, Indonesia tried to balance its relations with China and the US equally, welcoming strategic cooperation and economic engagement with both powers.
In spite of the influence wielded by Filipinos of Chinese ancestry, recent scandals have reawakened long-held views among Filipinos that link ethnic Chinese to corrupt practices. [08MANILA998] Interestingly, the cable notes Washington’s confidence that its supposed popularity among the Filipino populace and its self-proclaimed consistent commitment to good governance in the Philippines will ensure revitalized Philippine-China ties “do not imply a weakening of our strong bonds with the Philippines,” and that the latent prejudice against China has been reinforced by Beijing’s recent mishaps—significantly limiting the impact of China’s soft power.35 A crucial indication of rising worries over China’s renewed assertiveness was Singapore’s decision to share its growing concerns with the American diplomats. For decades, Singapore sought a perfect balance between its relations with the US and China, serving as diplomatic intermediary between the two great powers. Singapore’s paramount leader, Lee Kuan Yew, always maintained strong ties with the upper echelons of the Chinese Communist Party, even serving as a trusted advisor to luminaries such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Singapore also played a crucial role in facilitating China’s efforts to improve relations with ASEAN countries, with Singaporean leaders repeatedly emphasizing the benign aspects of China’s rise and downplaying concerns with its opaque political system and rapid military modernization program.36 In a diplomatic cable titled “Singapore Takes Notice as China Becomes More Assertive,” the American embassy in Singapore, after extensive discussions with leading local academics and journalists, aptly reflects the shifting regional attitude toward China in recent years: Singapore hopes the United States will not back down in the face of Chinese pressure because that would encourage China to become increasingly assertive in its dealings with other countries on issues such as its claims in the South China Sea.
The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World by Daniel Yergin
"Robert Solow", addicted to oil, Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, borderless world, BRICs, business climate, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, cleantech, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, colonial rule, Colonization of Mars, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, diversification, diversified portfolio, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, financial innovation, flex fuel, global supply chain, global village, high net worth, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, life extension, Long Term Capital Management, Malacca Straits, market design, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mohammed Bouazizi, mutually assured destruction, new economy, Norman Macrae, North Sea oil, nuclear winter, off grid, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, Piper Alpha, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Robert Metcalfe, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Sand Hill Road, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, smart grid, smart meter, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Stuxnet, technology bubble, the built environment, The Nature of the Firm, the new new thing, trade route, transaction costs, unemployed young men, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, Yom Kippur War
This was the very end of the 1990s when the swelling hordes of cars were beginning to fill the new eight-lane highways and push the bicycles to the side. The burning still mainly came not from the cars but rather from the many hundreds of thousands of oldfashioned coal ovens throughout the city that people were still using to cook and heat their homes. The dinner had gone on for a long time in the China Club, once the home of a merchant, and then a favorite restaurant of Deng Xiaoping, who had launched China’s great reforms at the end of the 1970s. Coal may have been in the air that night, but oil was on the agenda. With the dinner over, the CEO of one of China’s state-owned oil companies had stepped out into the enclosed courtyard with the other guests. Everybody’s overcoats were buttoned to the top against the cold. He and his management team were facing something he would never have anticipated when he started as a geologist in western China, more than three decades ago.
For China, this was a means to strengthen its strategic position against the Soviet Union and reduce the risk of a “two-front war” with the Soviet Union and the United States. This was no mere theoretical matter, for Russian and Chinese military forces had already clashed on the border along the Amur and Ussuri rivers. The Chinese had a second set of reasons as well. The most virulent phase of the Cultural Revolution was over. Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping and others were trying to get the country working again. They knew that self-reliance could not work. China needed access to international technology and equipment to modernize the economy and restore economic growth. But a very big obstacle stood in the way: How to pay for such imports? “Petroleum export–led growth”—that was Deng’s answer. “To import, we must export,” he said in 1975. “The first to my mind is oil.”
There was also an enormous cultural change. “Now you’d have to be competitive,” said Zhou. “You never had to be competitive before.”13 THE “GO OUT” STRATEGY: USING TWO LEGS TO WALK China has become a growing presence in the global oil and natural gas industry. This new role goes by the name of the “go out” strategy. It was enunciated as policy around 2000, though the policy’s roots extend back to the original reforms of Deng Xiaoping. The first steps abroad were very small ones, beginning in Canada, then Thailand, Papua–New Guinea, and Indonesia. In the mid-1990s, CNPC acquired a virtually abandoned oil field in Peru. By applying the kind of intense recovery techniques it had honed to coax more oil out of complex older oil fields in China, it took the field from 600 barrels a day to 7,000. But these projects were small and did not get much attention.
Does Capitalism Have a Future? by Immanuel Wallerstein, Randall Collins, Michael Mann, Georgi Derluguian, Craig Calhoun, Stephen Hoye, Audible Studios
affirmative action, blood diamonds, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business cycle, butterfly effect, creative destruction, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of the americas, distributed generation, eurozone crisis, fiat currency, full employment, Gini coefficient, global village, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Isaac Newton, job automation, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, land tenure, liberal capitalism, liquidationism / Banker’s doctrine / the Treasury view, loose coupling, low skilled workers, market bubble, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, means of production, mega-rich, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, Ponzi scheme, postindustrial economy, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, short selling, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, too big to fail, transaction costs, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks
If the world had gone down this pathway, Gorbachev would now appear the political “sphinx” astutely placating different constituencies with his opaque messages. The visionary pragmatist then would have been praised for taking his country “across the river feeling with his foot one stone at a time” to the shores of capitalist prosperity. The river-crossing metaphor is, of course, Chinese, and it refers to Deng Xiaoping. It is perhaps worth remembering that until the end of 1989, or even later, Gorbachev was universally praised as democracy promoter and the bold unifier of Europe, while Deng was vilified as the butcher of Tiananmen Square. The difference between the Chinese and Soviet exits from communism, however, was not only in the leading personalities and their political styles. There existed plenty of structural differences, the majority of them historically inherited, contingent, and generally unrelated to communism.
In 1989 the Chinese party cadres closed their ranks against the movement because the previous episode of upper-echelon factionalism provoking student militancy, the ultra-Maoist Cultural Revolution of the late 1960s, was very much in their memory. Perhaps more importantly, senior Chinese cadres remained the veterans of armed struggle—unlike Gorbachev and his comrades who were career apparatchiks two generations removed from revolution and civil war. For people like Deng Xiaoping, the notion of power growing from a gun barrel was not merely a metaphor. The suppression of the Tiananmen protests, however, came at a steep ideological cost. The activist students laid claim on the same ideals that legitimated the Communist party itself. The leftist attack on a leftist regime produced a turn to the right even if nobody from the top ever dared to officially acknowledge it.
The Growth Delusion: Wealth, Poverty, and the Well-Being of Nations by David Pilling
Airbnb, banking crisis, Bernie Sanders, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Branko Milanovic, call centre, centre right, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, dark matter, Deng Xiaoping, Diane Coyle, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Erik Brynjolfsson, falling living standards, financial deregulation, financial intermediation, financial repression, Gini coefficient, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Google Hangouts, Hans Rosling, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, invisible hand, job satisfaction, Mahatma Gandhi, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, means of production, Monkeys Reject Unequal Pay, mortgage debt, off grid, old-boy network, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, peak oil, performance metric, pez dispenser, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, rent-seeking, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Rory Sutherland, science of happiness, shareholder value, sharing economy, Simon Kuznets, sovereign wealth fund, The Great Moderation, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, transaction costs, transfer pricing, trickle-down economics, urban sprawl, women in the workforce, World Values Survey
Even a country as big and important as China is not comfortable with economic statistics that suggest it is doing too well. For months Beijing fought fiercely behind the scenes to prevent the release in 2014 of data, compiled under the auspices of the World Bank, that showed China overtaking the US as the world’s biggest economy measured in local prices.12 The Communist Party had long adhered to Deng Xiaoping’s dictum that China should mask its prodigious rise by “hiding its light” and biding its time. Here were meddling economists from the World Bank, of all places, blowing the gaff. Kale had realized just how delicate a subject he was dealing with three years earlier. In 2011, when he had first been approached to oversee the recalculation of Nigeria’s national income, he knew he would have to work out the practicalities of conducting the exercise carefully in such a sprawling and complicated country.
They have to forge forward, and the highly educated people in Africa must get even better health services and education, and then everyone else must follow,” he said. In the long run you need policies to bridge the divide and to redistribute some of the wealth created. If not, you risk social friction or worse. “But the difference between the worst off and the best off doesn’t have to diminish until one to two decades down the road.” Deng Xiaoping made the same argument. The man who set China on the path to transformational growth also famously tweaked the egalitarian principles of communism with his dictum “Let some people get rich first.” Growth and social improvement can be self-reinforcing. “It’s mutual. More money brings better social well-being, and better social well-being gets more money if you run your policies wisely,” Rosling said.
Planet of Slums by Mike Davis
barriers to entry, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Brownian motion, centre right, clean water, conceptual framework, crony capitalism, declining real wages, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, edge city, European colonialism, failed state, Gini coefficient, Hernando de Soto, housing crisis, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, jitney, jobless men, Kibera, labor-force participation, land reform, land tenure, liberation theology, low-wage service sector, mandelbrot fractal, market bubble, megacity, microcredit, Nelson Mandela, New Urbanism, Pearl River Delta, Ponzi scheme, RAND corporation, rent control, structural adjustment programs, surplus humans, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, working poor
In a thought-provoking article comparing recent inner-city redevelopment in the PRC to urban renewal in the United States in the late 1950s and early 1960s, Yan Zhang and Ke Fang claim that Shanghai forced the relocation of more than 1.5 million citizens between 1991 and 1997 to make way for skyscrapers, luxury apartments, malls, and new infrastructure; in the same period nearly 1 million residents of Beijing's old city were pushed into the outskirts 29 In the beginning, urban redevelopment in Deng Xiaoping's China, as in Harry Truman's America, consisted of pilot housing projects that seemed to pose little threat to the traditional urban fabric. When localities scaled up these experiments and accelerated the pace of housing redevelopment, however, there was not a provision in the programs to limit market-rate housing and nonresidential uses. Therefore, moderate and low-income housing quickly lost favor: developers have exploited the loophole to build as many luxury apartments and commercial developments as possible.
Chapin, Edwin 22 slum-dwellers 23, 27 ChapJin, Susan 140, 149 squatters 29, 33, 39, 43 Chatterjee, Gautam 18 state repression 110-11 Chatterjimitra, Banashree 100 traffic accidents 132-3 chawls 34, 36, 178, 202 urbanization 58 Chennai 170, 190 youth disaffection 202 Cheru, Fantu 148 Zamalek 115 Chicago 16 Calcutta see Kolkata children Caldeira, Teresa 118 abandoned 205 Cali 49 child labor 181,186-8 callejones 34 malnutrition 159, 160, 172 Cambodia 15, 54 mortality rates 25, 146, 148-9, Cape Town 60-1, 117, 146 capitalism 23, 50, 80, 199, 202 China 60 crony 92 161, 171, 172, 200 witchcraft 192, 196-8 Chile 109, 156, 157 China informal sector 179,181 agricultural land 135 structural adjustment programs automobiles 132, 133 153 Caracas 54-5, 59, 93 economic development 168-70 evictions 103 housing 176 illegal land speculation 88 riots 162 industrial growth 13 soil instability 122-3 informal sector 177, 178 squatters 38, 39-40 public housing 31, 62 Caribbean 148 rural migration 53-4 Carlos Alfredo Diaz 49 sewage 140 Casablanca 201, 202 slum population 24 Castells, Manuel 89, 176, 185n40 social struggle in 91 Castro, Fidel 61 urbanization 2, 6-7, 9, 11-12, 60 Ceylon 52 women 158 Chad 23 Chittagong 147 The Challenge of Slums 20-1, 22, 25, Choguill, Charles 74 153, 154, 163, 174-5 Chossudovsky, Michel 148 Chamoiseau, Patrick 174, 198 churches 195, 196-7 Chang, Ha-Joon 154 Cite-Soleil 92, 142 Chant, Sylvia 158, 184 Ciudad Juarez 16 civil society 76 housing 66 class see social class pollution 133 Clausen, Eileen 131-2 population 4 clientelism 57, 58, 76, 77 refugees 55—6 Cochabamba 25 satellite cities 99 Colombia 48, 49, 165, 200 sewage 340 Colombo 11, 32, 86, 136, 188 slum-dwellers 18, 23, 26 colonialism 51-3, 96, 97, 114, 139 Congo, Democratic Republic of (formerly Zaire) 16, 53, 191-8 urban/rural hybridization 10 Demarest, Geoffrey 205 democracy 68, 154 Connolly, Priscilla 17 Deng Xiaoping 103 corruption 88, 125-6, 150, 165 deregulation 15 Costa Rica 157, 160 desakotas 9n27, 10, 11 criminals 41, 49 Devas, Nick 68 Cuba 61, 62 development agencies 99 Czegledy, Andre 117 Devisch, Rene 191, 193-4, 195, 196 Dewar, Neil 97 Dhaka Dabu-Dabu 104-5 Dadaad 48 child labor 186 Dakar 46, 53, 74, 98, 102 disease 147 dalals 41 environmental disasters 129 Dar-es-Salaam 16, 51, 74, 134, 146, evictions 111 fires 128 155, 182 Darman, Richard 153 Grameen Bank 183 Darwin, Charles 182 hazardous slum locations 121 Das, Arvind 181 inequality 95-6 Das, P.K. 77-8 informal sector 177 Datta, Kavita 72 land speculation 86 Davis, Diane 55 population 4, 5 De Boeck, Filip 191-2, 194, 197 poverty 191 debt crisis 14, 84, 149, 152, 153-4, refugees 55-6 renting 43 159 deindustrialization 167 Delhi 33, 36, 356, 159, rickshaws 189 sewage 138, 139 slum-dwellers 23, 26, 27 evictions 100 urbanization 2 fires 128 water sales 145 Dhapa dump 47 Dharavi 92, 93 Diaz Ordaz, Gustavo 60 Dick, Philip K. 120 Dickens, Charles 23 disease 52, 142-50, 172 domestic service 188 Dominican Republic 105-6 Drakakis-Smith, David 10 Dublin 16, 31, 175 Diindar, Ozlem 85 Durand-Lasserve, Alain 91 Dushanbe 204 Dutton, Michael 112 earthquakes 126—7 East Asia 6-7, 12-13, 37 Eastern Europe 167-8 Eckstein, Susan 43 economic development 168-73 Ecuador 159 Edwards, Michael 35 Egypt land speculation 85 poverty 165 public housing 69 slum population 24 squatting 38 state repression 110 urbanization 9 El Paso 42 El Salvador 204 Elbasan 168 elites 69, 96, 119, 120, 149-50 see ako middle classes Eltayeb, Galal Eldin 21n3 employment 27, 29, 30, 4 6 - 7 child labor 181, 186-8 China 168-9 India 171, 172-3 informal sector 157, 159, 160^-1, 167, 175-94, 198 structural adjustment programs 157, 163-4 surplus labor 182, 199 women 158-9 see also unemployment empowerment 75 Engels, Friedrich 20, 23, 137, 138 England 137-8 entrepreneurs 41, 46, 80, 144-5, 179, 180, 182 environmental issues 121-50 epidemics 52 Escobar, Augustin 160 Estrada, Joseph 104 Ethiopia 23, 24 ethnic violence 185 Etienne, Yolette 184 Europe 31, 183 Evers, Hans-Dieter 65, 83, 183 evictions 98, 99-103 Bangkok 65 beautification campaigns 104-8 Delhi 66, 100 Manila 92, 99 excrement 137—42 exploitation 181, 186-90 Fabre, Guilhem 54 Faisalabad 145 Fakulteta 167 family separation 160,161 Fang, Ke 103 favelas 27, 34, 93, 202 demolition of 108 Gooptu, Nandini 52, 69, 97-8, 140n67, 178 hazardous locations 122 Gorky, Maxim 22 population growth 17 Goulart, Jao 62 regularization projects 81 Graham, Stephen 205-6 water contamination 136 GrameenBank 183 see also shantytowns grassroots groups 76, 77 Findley, Sally 14n41 Great Britain 137 fire 127-8 gross domestic product (GDP) 13 Firozabad 187-8 Guadalajara 159-60 Flight, Thomas 83 Guangzhou 16 flooding 123-6 Guatemala City 32, 126, 188 Gandy, Matthew 128-9 Guldin, Gregory 8 - 9 Guayaquil 16, 159 gated communities 115—20 Gauteng (Witwatersrand) 4, l l n 3 1 Haiti 16, 184 Gaviria, Cesar 165 Hanoi 135-6, 139, 145 Gaza 48 Harare 96-7, 102, 113-14, 160-1 Gazzoli, Ruben 77 Hardt, M. 201 GDP see gross domestic product Harms, Hans 109 gecekmdus Harris, Nigel 14 37, 38-9, 57, 85, 127, 136, 202 Hart, Keith 178 Geddes, Patrick 134 Haussman, Baron 64, 98 Geertz, Clifford 182 Havana 32, 61 gentrification 43, 73, 85 health issues 142-50,159 geology 122-3 see also sanitation Ghana 35, 141-2, 148 Hewitt, Kenneth 126 Ghannam, Farha 110-11 highways 118-19 Giddens, Anthony 119 Hilat Kusha 47 Gilbert, Alan 43, 50, 81-2, 90 HIV/AIDS 143, 149, 150, 153, GINI coefficients 157,165,166 160-1, 192, 196 Glasser, David 32 Hodges, Tony 102 globalization 11, 150, 163, 168, Hoffman, Kelly 180 174 Goma 48 homelessness 36-7 Hong Kong 3 1 , 3 5 , 3 6 Gonzalez, Mercedes 160 evictions 102 "good governance" 79, 82 gated communities 115 Hong Kong (Cont'd.) public housing 62, 63-4 Triads 41 Horton, Richard 147 middle class 150 sewage 139-40 slum improvement projects 78-9 slum population 24 House, William 180 surplus labor 199 housing 27-9, 30, 176, 200 urbanization 8, 9, 16, 55—6 Beijing 103 individualism 184 hand-me-down 31—4 Indonesia 10, 24, 26, 177 privatization 63, 71 Indore scheme 78-9 public 31, 61-7, 69 industrialization 13, 14, 16, 57, 147 Russia 167 inequality 7, 95, 154, 157-8 self-help 71, 72, 81-2, 90 Africa 96-7 Howard, Allen 97 Angola 164 human organ trade 190 China 168 Human Rights Watch 106,186,187 Colombia 165 Huntington, Samuel 56 India 97 Hyderabad 8, 56, 88, 128, 170 informal sector 181 Hylton, Forrest 201 Pakistan 166 hypercities 5 Russia 166 transport 131-2 IDPs see internally displaced people ILO see International Labour Organization infant mortality 25, 146, 148-9, 161, 171, 172, 200 informal sector 17, 157, 159, 160-1, IMF see International Monetary Fund 167, 175-94, 198 imperialism 76, 78, 174 see also street vendors India inner city poverty 31—7 agricultural land 135 inquilinatos British colonialism 52 insurgency 203-4 34 child labor 187-8 internally displaced people (IDPs) 48 economic development 168, International Labour Organization 170-3 exclusionary geography 97-8 (ILO) 17, 156, 189 International Monetary Fund (IMF) housing policy 34, 65-6, 69 14, 15, 18, 70, 84, 200 human organ trade 190 Congo 192, 193, 194 informal sector 177,178 protests against 161—3 interethnic solidarity 185 structural adjustment programs land ownership 84 62, 148, 152-3, 155, 193 taxation 68,155 Soweto 44-5, 142 involution 182-3,201 Jones, Gareth A. 72 Iran 24, 48, Jones, Gareth Stedman 82-3 Ishash al-Turguman 110 Josaphat, Lovly 142 Islamism 165 Joseph, Jaime 183-4 Israel 111 Istanbul 37, 38-9, 42, 57, 202 Kabul 48, 134, 204 earthquakes 127 Kakkar, Prahlad 140 Omerli forest 136 Kalle, Pepe 121 population 4 Kampala 137, 142 property investment 85 Kamwokya 142 Ivory Coast 156 Kanji, Nazneen 160-1 Kanpur 140n67 Jacquemin, Alain 68-9 Kaplan, Robert D. 202 Jakarta Karachi child labor 188 dalals 41 desakotas 10 informal sector 177 evictions 102 land speculation 84, 88 gated communities 116 military planning 204 land ownership 91 population 4, 5 motorization 131 refugees 55-6 NGOs 77 slum dwellers 18, 23, 26, 27, 31 pollution 129 waste disposal 134 population 4, 5 water sales 145 poverty 26 Kaunda, Kenneth 111 public housing 64 Keeling, David 39, 41 sewage 139 Kelly, Philip 10n30 state repression 112-13 Kenya 16, 18, 48, 87, 142 urbanization 1 Keyder, Qaglar 37, 57-8, 85 waste disposal 134 Khan, Akhtar Hameed 41 Jamaica 67 Khan, Azizur 168 Java 16, 182 Khartoum Jellinek, Lea 77 flooding 124 Jiang Zemin 168 growth of 16, 37 Johannesburg 33, 116-17, 118 Hilat Kusha 47 deindustrialization 13 informal sector 177 geology 122 refugees 48 Khartoum (Cont'd.)
The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System by James Rickards
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, Ayatollah Khomeini, bank run, banking crisis, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, bitcoin, Black Swan, Bretton Woods, BRICs, business climate, business cycle, buy and hold, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, complexity theory, computer age, credit crunch, currency peg, David Graeber, debt deflation, Deng Xiaoping, diversification, Edward Snowden, eurozone crisis, fiat currency, financial innovation, financial intermediation, financial repression, fixed income, Flash crash, floating exchange rates, forward guidance, G4S, George Akerlof, global reserve currency, global supply chain, Growth in a Time of Debt, income inequality, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, invisible hand, jitney, John Meriwether, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, Lao Tzu, liquidationism / Banker’s doctrine / the Treasury view, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, market bubble, market clearing, market design, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mutually assured destruction, obamacare, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open economy, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price stability, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, reserve currency, risk-adjusted returns, Rod Stewart played at Stephen Schwarzman birthday party, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, Stuxnet, The Market for Lemons, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, trade route, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, working-age population, yield curve
Prior to 1979, the Chinese economy operated on the “iron rice bowl” principle. The leadership did not promise high growth, jobs, or opportunities; instead, it promised sufficient food and life’s basic necessities. Collective farms, forced labor, and central planning were enough to deliver on these promises, but not much more. Stability was the goal, and growth was an afterthought. Beginning in 1979, Deng Xiaoping broke the iron rice bowl and replaced it with a growth-driven economy that would not guarantee food and necessities so much as provide people the opportunity to find them on their own. It was not a free market by any means, and there was no relaxation of Communist Party control. Still, it was enough to allow local managers and foreign buyers to utilize both cheap labor and imported know-how in order to create comparative advantage in a wide range of tradable manufactured goods.
This new story revolves around the rise of a Chinese warlord caste, financial not military in kind, that acts in its own self-interest rather than in China’s interest. The new financial warlords operate through bribery, corruption, and coercion. They are a cancer on the Chinese growth model and the so-called Chinese miracle. After the 1949 Communist takeover of China, all businesses were owned and operated by the state. This model prevailed for thirty years, until Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms began in 1979. In the decades that followed, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) took one of three paths. Some were closed or merged into larger SOEs to achieve efficiencies. Certain SOEs were privatized and became listed companies, while those remaining as SOEs grew powerful as designated “national champions” in particular sectors. Among the best known of these super-SOEs are the China State Shipbuilding Corporation, the China National Petroleum Corporation, the China Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC), and China Telecom.
., 209–10 Da Silva, Tekoa, 236 Davoudi, Parviz, 151 “Day After, The” (Ambinder), 63 debasement, of money, 172 debt, 171–80, 290–91 Federal Reserve monetary policy’s relation to, 176–77, 180–89 Federal Reserve Notes as, 167 monetization of, 287–88 sustainable, 171–72, 176–80 tests for acceptable government spending, 173–76 of United States, 171–73 Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions, The (Fisher), 246–47 debt-to-GDP ratio, 159–60, 173 deflation, impact of, 9, 258–59 of Japan, 159, 259, 261 of United Kingdom, 159 of United States, 159, 173, 259 defensive aspects of financial war, 46 deficits, 172–73, 176–80 deflation, 9–11, 76–83, 243–52, 256–64 banking system, impact on, 9, 259 Bernanke’s response to, 76, 77 Chinese imports and, 76 debt-to-GDP ratio and, 9, 258–59 deleveraging after housing market collapse and, 76–77 government debt repayment and, 9, 258 Greenspan’s response to, 76 versus inflation, in depression of 2007 to present, 243–52, 260, 290–91 in Japan, 160–61, 260–62, 264 post-2000 deflationary bias, 76 SDR issuance to prevent, 213–14 tax collection and, 9, 259–60 unemployment and, 77 De Gasperi, Alcide, 116 degree distribution, 265–66 de Léry, Jean, 115 deleveraging, 76–77, 246 DeMint, Jim, 205 Democrats, 175–76, 179, 180, 294 Deng Xiaoping, 93, 97 depressions defined, 244 deflation in, 246–47 Great Depression, 84, 85, 125–26, 155, 221–22, 223–24, 234, 244, 245 Long Depression, in Japan, 160 of 1920, 246–47 regime uncertainty and, 125–26 2007 to present, 3, 76, 87, 126, 197, 243–52, 260, 290–91 derivatives, 80–81 gold as not constituting, 217–18 mortgage-related, 290 risk posed by, 11–12 size of positions in, 11 Deutsche Bank, 32–33 Deutsche Bundesbank, 232 devaluations, 158, 200 of dollar, U.S., 1, 10–11, 235 Gold Bloc devaluations, 222 Great Depression and, 223 digital currencies, 254 dollar, U.S., 161 alternatives to, 254 Beijing Consensus and, 120–21 confidence in, 253–56, 291 contract theory of, 165–67, 169 deflation as threat to, 9–11 demise of, potential paths of, 292–95 devaluation of, 1, 10–11, 235 financial war as threat to, 6–7 geopolitical threats to, 12–13 gold convertibility abandoned, in 1971, 1, 2, 5, 209, 220, 235, 285 inflation as threat to, 7–9 King Dollar (sound-dollar) policy, 118, 176–77, 210, 211 loss of confidence in, in 1970s, 1–2, 5 market collapse as threat to, 11–12 MARKINT as means of detecting attacks on, 40 pegging to, effect of, 155 SDRs as potential reserve currency replacement for, 211–14, 292–93 threats to, 5–13 Volcker’s efforts to save, 2 Washington Consensus and, 118–20 dollar index in 1978, 1, 253–54 in 1995, 2, 253–54 in 2011, 2–3, 253–54 in 2013, 253–54 SDR issuance and weakness in, 210–11 Dr.
The Future Is Asian by Parag Khanna
3D printing, Admiral Zheng, affirmative action, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, Basel III, blockchain, Boycotts of Israel, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, call centre, capital controls, carbon footprint, cashless society, clean water, cloud computing, colonial rule, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, crony capitalism, currency peg, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, energy security, European colonialism, factory automation, failed state, falling living standards, family office, fixed income, flex fuel, gig economy, global reserve currency, global supply chain, haute couture, haute cuisine, illegal immigration, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, Internet of things, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, light touch regulation, low cost airline, low cost carrier, low skilled workers, Lyft, Malacca Straits, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, natural language processing, Netflix Prize, new economy, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, open economy, Parag Khanna, payday loans, Pearl River Delta, prediction markets, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, reserve currency, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, supply-chain management, sustainable-tourism, trade liberalization, trade route, transaction costs, Travis Kalanick, uber lyft, upwardly mobile, urban planning, Washington Consensus, working-age population, Yom Kippur War
That same year, Pol Pot’s revolutionary forces captured Phnom Penh and took over Cambodia, establishing the Communist Khmer Rouge regime in the newly declared Democratic Kampuchea. Pol Pot’s commitment to autarky and social uniformity led to widespread famine and genocide until Vietnamese forces toppled the Khmer regime in 1979. Vietnam and China fought a brief border war as well in 1979, but China withdrew its forces once satisfied that the Soviets would not assist Vietnam. Starting in 1978, Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, sought to blend socialism with the opportunities of the global economy. He decollectivized agriculture, allowed private enterprise, and opened the country to foreign trade and investment as the “tiger” economies had done in the preceding decade. In May 1980, Shenzhen in the Pearl River delta became the first Chinese Special Economic Zone, luring foreign capital with tax exemptions and light regulation.
But more recently, Mao’s dogmatism and Soviet communism were derisively labeled “technocratic” for their disastrous central planning, throwing the term into disrepute. Despite their socialist pretensions, those regimes proved not to be particularly utilitarian, willfully ignoring evidence contradicting their policies and failing to adapt to the international economic environment. After Mao, China recovered some of the virtues (old and new) of technocratic theory and practice. Deng Xiaoping’s admiration of Singapore’s success inspired his pragmatic opening of the economy, unleashing its potential through a mix of shock therapy and small-scale experimentation. Since that time, China has gained four decades’ worth of experience with markets, making many adaptations and course corrections. Successive generations of leaders beginning with Deng and continuing through Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and now Xi Jinping have not only built on the accomplishments of their predecessors but also brought diverse backgrounds in engineering and management to the upper echelons of leadership.
Western, 357–58 Cold War, 2, 3, 6, 14, 19, 51–58, 86, 138, 283 colleges and universities, Asian: all-English programs in, 231 ethnic and cultural diversity in, 338 colleges and universities, European, Asian campuses of, 257 colleges and universities, US: Asian campuses of, 231–32 Asian enrollment in, 224–27 Asian studies departments in, 230 study-abroad programs in, 230–31 colonialism, 6, 22, 24, 27, 329 legacies of, 77–78 Columbus, Christopher, 43 commodities, trade in, 100, 111, 113, 160, 176, 322 China and, 21, 150, 157, 158, 273, 276–77 Russia and, 85, 88 Turkey and, 93, 94 Communist Party, Chinese, 49, 159–60, 300, 301 conflict, regional systems and, 11 Confucianism, 32, 34, 70, 300, 301 Congress, US, 195, 207, 222, 284 Asian Americans in, 221 Congressional Research Service (CRS), 293 Conrad, Sebastian, 28 Constantinople, 36, 39 sacking of, 43, 73, 91 consumerism, 23 corruption, 161, 267, 305 cosmetics industry, 346 Costa Rica, 274 Council of Europe, 57, 92, 241 coworking spaces, 204 Crazy Rich Asians (film), 347 Crimea, Russia’s annexation of, 83 Crimean War, 47 crusades, 39 Cuba, 271 Asian immigrants in, 275 cuisine, Asian: fusion, 345 global spread of, 343–45 Cultural Revolution, 56 culture, Asian, growing cross-border and global awareness of, 340–51 currency exchange rates, 169 Cyprus, 91 Cyrus the Great, Persian emperor, 30 Dalai Lama, 55, 120, 222, 358 Damico, Flávio, 277 Daoism, 31, 34 Darius I, Persian emperor, 30 Darius III, Persian emperor, 32 Defense Department, US, 98, 143 defense spending: in Asia, 17, 105, 137, 138 by Europe, 240, 248 Delhi Sultanate, 38–39 Demetrius, king of Bactria, 33 democracy, 15, 281–86 appeal of stability over ideals of, 285–86, 296, 309–13 Asian versions of, 21–22, 23, 281, 288–89 capitalism and, 352 failures and weaknesses of, 282–86, 294, 302–3 parliamentary, 295 Plato on, 286, 291 policy vs. politics in, 289, 296 populists’ hijacking of, 3 post–Cold War triumph of, 2 Singapore’s melding of technocracy and, 288–89, 290, 298 Deng Xiaoping, 57, 300 Dharma Bums (Kerouac), 331 Didi Chuxing (DiDi), 174–75, 198 digital integration, 186–89 digital technology: Asia and, 324 in governance, 318–20 Djibouti, 263 DNA editing, 201 Doha, art scene in, 342 dollar reserves, Asian holdings of, 163 Dream of the Red Chamber, 353 drones, commercial, 209 drug trade, 106–7 Duara, Prasenjit, 358 Dubai, 172, 173, 202, 212, 251, 261, 334 Dubai Ports World, 104, 261, 263 Durban, 265 Durov, Pavel, 173 Dutch, Southeast Asian colonies of, 45 Duterte, Rodrigo, 123–24, 305, 340 illiberal policies of, 306 Dyson, 210, 257 East Asia, 6, 51, 70, 140 cross-border literary tradition of, 353 democratization of, 61 economic growth of, 9 economic stability of, 63 exports of, 153, 154 Gulf states investments in, 103–4 oil and gas imports of, 82–83, 84–85, 106, 152, 175 in post–Cold War era, 60–61 prehistoric civilizations in, 29 US and, 140–41 US presence in, 16, 73 see also specific countries East Asian Community (EAC), 9 eco-activism, 182 e-commerce, 210–11, 228 Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), 58 economic growth, 3, 4 rule of law and, 309–10 economy, global, 321–22 eco-tourism, 340 Ecuador, 274 education and professional training, 204–5, 317 Egypt, 29, 262 Eilat, 99 election, US, of 2016, 83, 320 electricity transmission systems, 112 electric vehicles, 179 energy: Asian need for, 9, 17, 62, 82–83, 84–85, 96, 100, 102, 103, 106, 152, 175–80, 177, 207 Europe’s need for, 84 Enlightenment, 22 Erdoğan, Recep, 87, 91, 92, 222, 310 Ethiopia, 262 eugenics, 200–201 Eurasia, 81 Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), 85, 87 Europe: alternative energy in, 175 anti-Muslim movements in, 255 anti-Soviet revolutions in, 58 Arabs in, 253, 255, 258 Asians in, 253–58 austerity policies in, 299 China and, 243, 246, 248–50 as coherent regional system, 7 defense spending by, 240, 248 energy needs of, 84 global civilization as influenced by, 21, 22–23 governance systems in, 284 internal trade in, 152 postwar rebuilding of, 14 Russia and, 83–84, 85, 89 Syrian refugees in, 63 US financial holdings of, 164–65 US relations with, 240 in voyages of discovery, 43–44, 68 see also specific countries Europe, Asia and, 239–58 arms sales in, 251 Asian investment in, 163, 246–47 financial sector in, 246, 247 food transport and, 244, 248 free trade agreements in, 250 infrastructure connectivity and, 243–44 retail sector in, 244 tourism in, 254–55 trade in, 13, 14, 241, 250 urban development and, 245–46 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), 241 European Central Bank, 243 European Coal and Steel Community, 7 European Customs Union, 92 European Economic Community, 57 European Investment Bank (EIB), 250 European Union, 2, 11, 13, 14, 127, 133, 249 expansion of, 241, 258 Israel and, 97 execution rates, in Asia, 308 Export-Import Bank of China, 84–85, 110, 273 Facebook, 208, 209, 219, 320 family-run businesses, Asian, 159–60 Far East, use of term, 5–6 Far Eastern Economic Review, 353 fashion: Asian, spread of, 345–46 Asian models in, 346 European, Asianization of, 345–46 Filipino Americans, 217 film industry: in Asia, 347–51 Asian directors in, 347 cross-Asian collaborations in, 348–49 Hollywood’s use of Asian themes in, 346–47 US-Asian collaboration in, 348 finance industry, Asian, 163 bonds in, 163, 164, 165–67 commodities markets in, 176 cross-border investments in, 166 foreign investments in, 167, 168, 171–72 IPO’s in, 167 private equity in, 171–72 privatization and, 169–71 stock markets in, 167–68 US and European investments by, 163–64 venture capital in, 173–74 finance industry, US, 166 Asia and, 167 financial crises: Asian (1997–98), 61, 62, 121, 151 Western (2007–08), 3, 14, 17, 62, 147, 152, 164, 233, 299 fintech (financial technology), 158, 168, 169, 188, 213 Flanagan, Owen, 357 flashpoints, geopolitical, in Asia, 11 food: Asian demands for, 244, 248 Asian production of, 177, 180–81, 182 Foreign Affairs, 8 Fosun International, 159–60 Foxconn, 132, 153, 194, 228 France: Arab immigrants in, 253 Asian immigrants in, 253 Asian trade of, 244 Indochina colonized by, 45 and loss of Indochina, 52 West Asian mandates of, 49 Francis I, Pope, 358 Franco-Prussian War, 286 Freedom House, 308 free trade: Asia and, 8, 102, 124, 129, 133, 153, 154, 158, 223, 250, 252, 272, 273 Western promotion of, 2–3, 158 Fujimori, Alberto, 276 Fukuoka, 135–36 Funabashi, Yoichi, 8–9 Funan Kingdom, 34 Fung, Spencer, 184 Future Forward Party, Thailand, 307 Gama, Vasco da, 43 Gandhara, 32, 33, 34 Gandhi, Mohandas K., 49, 265, 316 Ganges region, 29, 32 Ganges River, 33, 35, 46 “Gangnam Style” (music video), 343 Gates, Bill, 317 Geely, 194 General Electric, 110, 168, 211 Genghis Khan, 39–40 Georgia, Republic of, 59 technocracy in, 307 Germany, Nazi, 50 Germany, unified: Arab refugees in, 255 Asian immigrants in, 253, 254, 256 Asia’s relations with, 242 multiparty consensus in, 284 Ginsberg, Allen, 331 Giving Pledge, 317 Global-is-Asian, 22 globalization: Asia and, 8–9, 162, 357–59; see also Asianization growth of, 14 global order, see world order Goa, 44, 89, 186 Göbekli Tepe, 28 Goguryeo Kingdom, 34 Go-Jek, 187 Golden Triangle, 123 Google, 199, 200, 208–9, 219 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 58 governance: digital technology in, 318–19 inclusive policies in, 303 governance, global: Asia and, 321–25 infrastructure and, 322 US and, 321 government: effectiveness of, 303 trust in, 291, 310 violence against minorities by, 308–9 Government Accountability Office (GAO), 293 GrabShare, 174–75 grain imports, Asian, 90 Grand Canal, China, 37, 42 Grand Trunk Road, 33 Great Britain: Asian investments in, 247 Brexit vote in, 283–84, 286, 293–94 civil service in, 293–94 colonial empire of, 46–47 industrialization in, 46 Iran and, 252 populism in, 283–84 South Asian immigrants in, 253, 254 West Asian mandates of, 49–50 Great Game, 47 Great Leap Forward, 55 Great Wall of China, 31 Greece, 60, 91, 248 Greeks, ancient, 29, 34 greenhouse gas emissions, 176–77, 182 gross domestic product (GDP), 2, 4, 150 Grupo Bimbo, 272 Guam, 50, 136 Guangdong, 42, 98 Guangzhou (Canton), 37, 48, 68 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), 58, 101, 102 Gulf states (Khaleej), 6, 9, 57, 62, 81 alternative energy projects in, 251 Asianization of, 100–106 China and, 101, 102 European investment in, 251 India and, 102 Israel and, 99–100, 105 Japan and, 102 oil and gas exports of, 62, 74, 100–101, 176 South Asian migrants in, 334 Southeast Asia’s trade with, 102 South Korea and, 102 technocracy in, 311–12 US arms sales to, 101 women in, 315 see also specific countries Gulliver, Stuart, 148, 150 Gupta Empire, 35 H-1B visas, 219 Hamas, 59, 100, 139 Hamid, Mohsin, 184 Han Dynasty, 32, 33, 34, 300 Hanoi, 180 Han people, 31–32, 37, 69 Harappa, 29 Hardy, Alfredo Toro, 275 Hariri, Saad, 95 Harun al-Rashid, Caliph, 37 Harvard University, 230 Haushofer, Karl, 1 health care, 201–2 Helmand River, 107 Herberg-Rothe, Andreas, 75 Herodotus, 30 heroin, 106–7 Hezbollah, 58, 95, 96, 106 Hindus, Hinduism, 29, 31, 32, 34, 38, 70–71 in Southeast Asia, 121 in US, 220, 221 Hiroshima, atomic bombing of, 51 Hispanic Americans, 217 history, Asian view of, 75 history textbooks: Asia nationalism in, 27–28 global processes downplayed in, 28 Western focus of, 27–28, 67–68 Hitler, Adolf, 50 Ho, Peter, 289 Ho Chi Minh, 52 Ho Chi Minh City, 56 Honda, 275 Hong Kong, 56, 74 American expats in, 234 art scene in, 342 British handover of, 60, 141 civil society in, 313 Hongwu, Ming emperor, 42 honor killings, 315 Hormuz, Strait of, 103, 106 hospitality industry, 190, 214 Houthis, 106, 107 Huan, Han emperor, 33–34 Hulagu Khan, 40 Human Rights Watch, 313 human trafficking, 318 Hunayn ibn Ishaq, 37 Hungary, 40, 248, 256 Huns, 35, 76 hunter-gatherers, 28 Huntington, Samuel, 15 Hu Shih, 332 Hussein, Saddam, 58, 62, 101 Hyundai, 104 IBM, 212 I Ching, 30 Inclusive Development Index (IDI), 150 income inequality: in Asia, 183–84 in US, 228, 285 India, 101, 104 Afghanistan and, 118 Africa and, 264–66 AI research in, 200 alternative energy programs in, 178–79, 322 Asian investments of, 118 Australia and, 128 British Raj in, 46, 49 charitable giving in, 316–17 China and, 19–20, 113, 117–18, 155, 156, 332 civil society in, 313 in Cold War era, 52, 55, 56 corporate debt in, 170 corruption in, 161, 305 demonetization in, 184, 186–87 diaspora of, 333–34 early history of, 29, 30–31 economic growth of, 9, 17, 148, 185–86 elections in, 63 European trade partnerships with, 250–51 expansionist period in, 38, 41–42 failure of democracy in, 302 family-owned businesses in, 160 film industry in, 349–51 financial markets in, 186 foreign investment in, 192 gender imbalance in, 315 global governance in, 322–23 global image of, 331–32 Gulf states and, 102 inclusive policies in, 304 infrastructure investment in, 63, 110, 185 Iran and, 116, 118 Israel and, 98–99 IT industry in, 204, 275 Japan and, 134, 156 Latin America and, 275 manufacturing in, 192 as market for Western products and services, 207 naval forces of, 105 Northeast Asia and, 154–55 oil and gas imports of, 96, 107–8, 176 Pakistan and, 53, 55, 61, 77–78, 117–18 partitioning of, 52–53 pharmaceutical industry in, 228, 275 population of, 15, 186 in post–Cold War era, 61, 62 privatization in, 170 returnees in, 226 Russia and, 86–87 service industry in, 192 Southeast Asia and, 154–55 special economic zones in, 185 spiritual heritage of, 332 technocracy in, 304–6 technological innovation in, 186–87 territorial claims of, 11 top-down economic reform in, 305 traditional medicine of, 355 West Asia and, 155 Indian Americans, 217, 218, 219–20, 222 Indian Institutes of Technology (ITT), 205 Indian Ocean, 38, 47, 74, 105, 261, 262, 266 European voyages to, 44 Indians, in Latin America, 276 IndiaStack, 187 Indochina, 45, 50, 52 see also Southeast Asia Indo-Islamic culture, 38 Indonesia, 53, 61, 121, 125, 182 art scene in, 342 in Cold War era, 54 economic growth of, 17, 148 eco-tourism in, 340 failure of democracy in, 302 foreign investment in, 187 illiberal policies of, 306 inclusive policies of, 304 Muslims in, 71 technocracy in, 304–5 Indus River, 32, 113 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), 92, 159 industrialization, spread of, 22 Industrial Revolution, 2, 46, 68 Indus Valley, 29 infrastructure investment, in Asia, 6, 62, 63, 85, 88, 93, 96, 104, 108, 109, 110–11, 185, 190, 191, 243–44 see also; Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank; Belt and Road Initiative Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po), 257, 286–87 insurance industry, 210 intermarriage, 336, 337–38 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 162, 163, 166, 323 International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), 116 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 100 International Systems in World History (Buzan), 7 Internet of Things (IoT), 134, 136, 197 Interpol, 324 Iran, 11, 15, 62, 92, 95, 98, 101, 140 China and, 101, 106–7, 116 in Cold War era, 54 European trade with, 251–52 growing opposition to theocracy in, 312 India and, 116, 118 Islamic revolution in, 57 Israel and, 99, 100 nuclear program of, 62 oil and gas exports of, 50, 94, 106, 107–8, 118, 176 in post–Cold War era, 58–59 privatization in, 170 re-Asianization of, 81, 106 Russia and, 87 Saudi Arabia and, 95–96, 100, 105–6 Syria and, 106 tourism in, 252 Turkey and, 94 US sanctions on, 87, 107, 241, 251, 252 women in, 315 Yemen and, 107 Iran-Iraq War, 58, 106 Iraq, 9, 11, 16, 49 Kuwait invaded by, 59 oil exports of, 55, 96 Sunni-Shi’a conflict in, 312 Iraq Reconstruction Conference (2018), 96 Iraq War, 3, 62, 91, 217, 240 Isfahan, 41 Islam, 40, 316 politics and, 71–72 spread of, 36, 38–39, 43, 69–72, 74 Sunni-Shi’a conflict in, 95, 312 Sunni-Shi’a division in, 36 see also Muslims; specific countries Islamic radicalism, 58, 59, 62, 65, 68, 71, 72, 115, 117, 139 see also terrori