Climategate

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pages: 692 words: 127,032

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto

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affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Berlin Wall, Brownian motion, carbon footprint, Cepheid variable, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, desegregation, double helix, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fudge factor, ghettoisation, Harlow Shapley and Heber Curtis, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, informal economy, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, sharing economy, smart grid, Solar eclipse in 1919, stem cell, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, University of East Anglia, War on Poverty, white flight, Winter of Discontent, working poor

New York Times, December 5, 2009. www.nytimes.com/2009/12/06/opinion/06pubed.html?scp=54&sq=climategate&st=nyt. 70. Richert, C. Inhofe Claims That E-Mails “Debunk” Science Behind Climate Change. Politifact.com, December 11, 2009. http://politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/dec/11/james-inhofe/inhofe-claims-cru-e-mails-debunk-science-behind-cl. 71. Henig, J. “Climategate”: Hacked E-Mails Show Climate Scientists in a Bad Light but Don’t Change Scientific Consensus on Global Warming. FactCheck.org, December 10, 2009. www.factcheck.org/2009/12/climategate. 72. Borenstein, S., et al. Review: E-Mails Show Pettiness, Not Fraud.

Review: E-Mails Show Pettiness, Not Fraud. Associated Press, December 12, 2009. www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34392959/ns/us_news-environment. 73. McClatchy Washington Bureau. Commentary: “Climategate” Is a Lesson in the Politics of Science. McClatchy Newspapers, December 15, 2009. www.mcclatchydc.com/2009/12/15/v-print/80663/commentary-climategate-is-a-lesson.html. [opinion] 74. Sensenbrenner, F. J. Sensenbrenner Urges IPCC to Exclude Climategate Scientists. Letters from the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, December 8, 2009. http://republicans.globalwarming.house.gov/Press/PRArticle.aspx?NewsID=2749. 75.

BBC News, December 5, 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8387737.stm. 81. US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Minority Staff. “Consensus” Exposed: The CRU Controversy. Washington, DC: US Senate, 2010. 82. Laing, A. “Climategate” Professor Phil Jones “Considered Suicide over Email Scandal.” Daily Telegraph, February 7, 2010. www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7180154/Climategate-Professor-Phil-Jones-considered-suicide-over-email-scandal.html. 83. Schneider, S. Science as a Contact Sport. Washington, DC: National Geographic Society, 2009. 84. Fogarty, D. Climate Debate Gets Ugly as World Moves to Curb CO2.

 

pages: 217 words: 61,407

Twilight of Abundance: Why the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short by David Archibald

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Bakken shale, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, deindustrialization, energy security, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, income per capita, means of production, mutually assured destruction, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, peak oil, price discovery process, rising living standards, South China Sea, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War

And their moral bankruptcy in promoting the notion of global warming using apparently fraudulent statistics is reprehensible; hopefully they will be duly punished, in this world or the next. The history of the global warming fraud has been detailed in a number of books published recently, including a number on the Climategate emails alone. One good analysis of the malfeasance of the climate scientists is The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert, published by Canadian investigative journalist Donna Laframboise in 2011.18 One of the earliest Climategate emails shows how the results of research were tailored to a political agenda. On July 29, 1999, Adam Markham of WWF (a non-government organization formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund) wrote to University of East Anglia climate scientists Mike Hulme and Nicola Sheard about a paper that Hulme and Sheard had written about climate change in Australasia: “I’m sure you will get some comments direct from Mike Rae in WWF Australia, but I wanted to pass on the gist of what they’ve said to me so far.

Humlum, “The Long Sunspot Cycle 23 Predicts a Significant Temperature Decrease in Cycle 24,” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 80, May 2012. 6.James Delingpole, “Lovelock Goes Mad for Shale Gas,” Telegraph, June 16, 2012, http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100165783/lovelock-goes-mad-for-shale-gas/. Chapter 2: A Less Giving Sun 1.John Costella, ed., The Climategate Emails (Melbourne, Victoria: Lavoisier Group, March 2010), http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/climate-change/climategate-emails.pdf. 2.Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen, “Variation of Cosmic Ray Flux and Global Cloud Coverage—a Missing Link in Solar-Climate Relationships,” Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 59 (1997): 1225. 3.Eigil Friis-Christensen and Knud Lassen, “Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate,” Science 254 (1991): 698–700. 4.C.

The more carbon dioxide we can put into the atmosphere, the better life on Earth will be for human beings and all other living things. If all that is true, you will ask, how is it that the United Nations–derived Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came up with its ice cap–melting prediction of a 6°C increase in average global temperature by the end of this century? The notorious Climategate emails,1 released on November 20, 2009, appear to show scientists manipulating data to produce the answers they desired, bullying those who disagreed with them, plotting against scientific journal editors, and deliberately concocting misleading figures, among other apparent acts of willful malfeasance.

 

pages: 258 words: 77,601

Everything Under the Sun: Toward a Brighter Future on a Small Blue Planet by Ian Hanington

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agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, Exxon Valdez, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, hydraulic fracturing, oil shale / tar sands, stem cell, sustainable-tourism, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, urban planning, urban sprawl

Environmental Protection Agency over its ruling that carbon dioxide and other global warming gases are a threat to human health and welfare. Many Republicans, some of whom also reject the science of evolution and believe the earth was created six thousand years ago and that humans and dinosaurs walked together, have followed his lead. As for the so-called Climategate brouhaha (where more than one thousand emails between climate scientists at the University of East Anglia were stolen or leaked by hackers), a fifth investigation, this time led by Republicans in response to a request from one of their own, Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma, again found no “evidence to question the ethics of our scientists or raise doubts about [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s] understanding of climate change science.”

The world’s largest oil company had admitted that it funded these efforts but promised in 2008 it would stop giving money to groups that lobbied against the need to find clean-energy sources. It’s also an embarrassment for those who, in the face of overwhelming scientific evidence, deny the existence of climate change—or admit that it’s happening but say we can’t and shouldn’t do anything about it. Of course, they will continue to repeat the same discredited points about “Climategate” and medieval warm periods and CO2 as plant food, and they’ll continue to take the advice of climate-change denial PR people like Tom Harris to bombard the media with opinion articles, letters to editors, and comments under online articles. Some people rightly point out that we should look at the science and not at who is paying for the research.

Meanwhile, evidence that our fossil-fuel addiction contributes to dangerous climate change and harms the environment in other ways mounts every day, with oil spills, pipeline leaks, and other events. Let’s take a look at some of what we are now learning. Six independent investigations have found that the unimaginatively named Climategate was anything but the scandal or “nail in the coffin of anthropogenic global warming” that deniers claimed. After the illegal theft and release of emails from scientists at the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, some reports found that the scientists could have been more open about sharing data; however, their science was rigorous and sound.

 

pages: 829 words: 229,566

This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate by Naomi Klein

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1960s counterculture, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, big-box store, bilateral investment treaty, British Empire, business climate, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, energy security, energy transition, equal pay for equal work, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, financial deregulation, food miles, Food sovereignty, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, ice-free Arctic, immigration reform, income per capita, Internet Archive, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, market fundamentalism, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, new economy, Nixon shock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open borders, patent troll, planetary scale, post-oil, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Rana Plaza, Ronald Reagan, smart grid, special economic zone, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, structural adjustment programs, Ted Kaczynski, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, wages for housework, walkable city, Washington Consensus, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks

May 2, 2010; HANSEN: William Lajeunesse, “NASA Scientist Accused of Using Celeb Status Among Environmental Groups to Enrich Himself,” Fox News, June 22, 2011; Christopher Horner, “A Brief Summary of James E. Hansen’s NASA Ethics File,” American Tradition Institute, November 18, 2011; VINDICATED: David Adam, “ ‘Climategate’ Review Clears Scientists of Dishonesty over Data,” Guardian, July 7, 2010; FUELED: James Delingpole, “Climategate: The Final Nail in the Coffin of ‘Anthropogenic Global Warming’?” Daily Telegraph, November 20, 2009; James Delingpole, “Climategate: FOIA—The Man Who Saved the World,” Daily Telegraph, March 13, 2013; BILLBOARD CAMPAIGN: Wendy Koch, “Climate Wars Heat Up with Pulled Unabomber Billboards,” USA Today, May 4, 2012. 27.

It is intolerable and deeply offensive. Those preaching this doctrine have to be resisted and indeed denounced.”25 And denounce they do, the more personal, the better—whether it’s former Vice President Al Gore for his mansions, or famed climate scientist James Hansen for his speaking fees. Then there is “Climategate,” a manufactured scandal in which climate scientists’ emails were hacked and their contents distorted by the Heartlanders and their allies, who claimed to find evidence of manipulated data (the scientists were repeatedly vindicated of wrongdoing). In 2012, the Heartland Institute even landed itself in hot water by running a billboard campaign that compared people who believe in climate change (“warmists” in denialist lingo) to murderous cult leader Charles Manson and Unabomber Ted Kaczynski.

., 349 clear-cutting, 296, 304, 310 Climate Action Network, 149 climate change, 73, 110, 165, 176, 177, 230, 249 acceptable risk and, 335 astronaut’s-eye view of, 284–90, 296 centrist organizations and, 198–201 community and, 364–65 computer models of, 270–71 corporate deregulation and, 20 defining of, 210 democracy and, 363–64 developing world on, 75 disasters and, 2–3, 17, 102–3, 154, 406, 465 fracking and, 199 as transformative force, 7, 8, 152–60 Indigenous rights and, 380–84, 385 individual vs. corporate conservation in, 116–18 marine infertility and, 433–35 mitigation of, 134 negotiations on, 11 past and future generations in, 158–59 as planetary emergency, 6, 7, 15, 17, 18, 449–50, 459–60 planetary exodus as solution to, 288–89 and power relation between humans and earth, 175 as result of cumulative emissions, 21, 40, 56, 175, 409–10, 416 roots of, 159–60 sacrifice zones and, 310–11, 315 “safe” limit of, 12–13 tipping points for, 14, 412 2 degrees Celsius boundary in, 87–88, 89, 150, 354, 456 wealth creation and, 46–52 weather patterns and, 269 climate change denial, 2–5, 26, 43, 91, 119, 282–83, 394, 407, 451 economics as factor in, 3, 45–46, 59–60 extractive industries’ funding of, 44–45, 149, 198 increase in, 35 partisan approach to, 35–36 right-wing, 31–63, 154, 178 socioeconomic privilege and, 46–52 technological miracles and, 3 Climate of Corruption (Bell), 33 climate debt, 5, 7, 457 owed to developing world, 5, 7, 40, 387, 408–18 owed to Indigenous peoples, 387, 388–99, 408 seen as politically toxic, 414 Climate Depot, 32, 45 Climategate, 41 climate justice, see climate debt climate manipulation, see geoengineering climate movement: coming of age of, 11–12 deregulated capitalism and, 20 economic justice and, see climate debt growing power and interconnectedness of, 451–52 historical precedents for, 452–57, 459–61 Keystone XL protests and resurgence of, 139–40 lack of sustained and populist, 157 moral imperative in, 336, 386–87, 464 and need for viable economic alternatives to extraction industries, 349, 398, 399, 400–401, 403, 413–18 origins of, 73–75 see also Blockadia climate science, 46, 59, 127, 152, 158 climate treaty negotiations, 11, 77–80, 411 see also emission reduction Clinton, Bill, 83–85, 213, 231–32 Clinton administration, carbon trading proposed by, 218 Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting of 2006, 231 Clodumar, Kinza, 165 Clorox, 356, 357 cloud brightening, 258 cloud seeding, 279 Club of Rome, 185–86 CNN, 45 Coal & Climate Summit, 200 coal, 102, 128, 143, 159, 176, 214, 224 capitalism and, 175, 176 collapsing U.S. market for, 319–20 exporting of, 144n, 301, 320, 322, 349, 352, 362, 374, 376 lignite, 136 as “portable climate,” 174 rail transport of, 234, 362, 389, 397 water power vs., 171–73 coal-fired power plants, 3, 67–68, 81–82, 83, 97, 136–39, 141, 200, 208, 236, 247–48 global campaign against, 319–20, 348–49, 350–52, 365 public utilities and, 100, 196 coal industry, 197, 300–301 opposition to, see anti-coal movements political and economic power of, 316, 321 see also extractive industries coal mining, 145, 398 in Appalachia, 309, 353 in Montana, 320, 342–43, 346, 370, 388–93, 395, 397, 445 mountaintop removal in, 2, 303, 309, 310, 329, 353 water supply contamination from, 332 coal-powered economies, 88 Coates, Ta-Nehisi, 415 Cobenais, Marty, 318–19, 332 Cochabamba, Bolivia, 444n Cohen, Nick, 156 Cold War, 15, 42, 43, 74, 261 collective action, 36 collective sacrifice, 16–17 colleges and universities: divestment movement and, 354–55, 401 renewable energy investment by, 401–2 Colombia, 202, 348, 376–77 colonialism, 154, 370, 414–16 coal and, 173, 176 extractivism and, 169–70 Industrial Revolution and, 171, 175, 457 Scientific Revolution and, 170–71 Colorado, 52, 357n Colorado School of Public Health, 428 Combes, Maxime, 304n, 317–18 Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, 45 Common Sense (Paine), 314 communism, 20, 39, 42, 44, 177 communities, 106 building of, 92 climate change and, 364–65 renewable energy in, 131–32, 133 see also worldview, communitarian Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) programs, 405 compassion, 62–63, 462 Competitive Enterprise Institute, 32, 45, 411 complexity, 267, 290 composting systems, 108 computer models, of climate change, 270–71 Conant, Lionel, 380 Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, 319 Conference Board of Canada, 145 Congo, 220 ConocoPhillips, 226, 227–28, 246 Conservation Fund, 196, 205 Conservation International, 84, 189, 196, 205–6, 209, 211–12 Conservative Party (Canadian), 36 Constitution, Canadian, 371 construction, green, 90 consumer lifestyles, 2, 75, 116–17 consumption, 116 decrease in, 90 excess, 85, 91, 92, 93, 210, 412, 413 green, 211–13, 252 container ships, 76, 79 Conway, Erik, 42 Cook, James, 266 Cook, Katsi, 419 coolants, 219–20 “Cool Dudes” (McCright and Dunlap), 46–47 Coon, David, 374 co-ops: energy, 130, 131–32 worker-run, 122–23, 133 Coos Bay, Oreg., 349 Copenhagen Climate Summit of 2009, 11–14, 34, 150, 262, 451 copper, 91n, 296 coral, coral reefs, 301, 348, 434 Corexit, 432 Cornell University, 143, 217, 317 corn ethanol, 239, 240 corporate donors, 83, 210n corporations, 25 centralization under, 179 crisis exploited by, 8 democracy vs., 7 deregulation of, 19, 20, 72, 142, 154, 210 disaster prevention at, 51–52 environmental groups’ cooperation with, 196, 206–11 freedom from regulation for, 19 free speech for, 151 goals of private, 129–30 ideology of, 75 impact of climate change on, 49 Indigenous peoples vs., 221–23 natural world vs., 60–61 political power of, 199, 124–26, 141–52 right-wing think tanks funded by, 44, 50 taxes avoided by, 115 USCAP and, 226–28 Correa, Rafael, 180–81, 410–11 corruption, of government regulators, 333–34 Cosbey, Aaron, 70 Costa Rica, 348 Coste, Torrance, 363 “Cowboys and Indians alliance,” 302, 318–19, 322–23, 346 crash of 1929, 88 Crawford, Julia Trigg, 361 Crompton, Tom, 60 crops, 9, 34, 57 crowdfunding, 198 Crow Reservation, 389, 397 Crutzen, Paul, 261–62 Cuadrilla, 130 cultural cognition, 36, 44–45, 59, 63, 186 Culture of Narcissism (Lasch), 117 Czechoslovakia, 178 Czech Republic, 42–43, 144, 348 Dai, Aiguo, 272, 275 Daily Mail, 5454 Dallas, Tex., 329 Daly, Herman, 173 dams, 180, 183, 202 Daniel, Patrick, 331–32 dark money, 44 Darling, Jay Norwood “Ding,” 185 Dauphin Island Sea Lab, 433–34 David, Ned, 247 Davis, David Brion, 463 Dayaneni, Gopal, 448 Day One, 391 DDT, 185, 201, 203, 207 de Boer, Yvo, 87 decade zero, 24, 143 Dediu, Doina, 344 deep ecology, 75 deepwater drilling, see offshore drilling, deepwater Defense Department, U.S., 113 deforestation, 202 degrowth strategies: selective, 93–95 for wealthy nations, 88, 89 Delaware River Basin, 346 Delgamuukw v.

 

pages: 829 words: 186,976

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't by Nate Silver

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airport security, availability heuristic, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, Carmen Reinhart, Claude Shannon: information theory, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, Donald Trump, Edmond Halley, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, Freestyle chess, fudge factor, George Akerlof, haute cuisine, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, housing crisis, income per capita, index fund, Internet Archive, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, locking in a profit, Loma Prieta earthquake, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, Nate Silver, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pets.com, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, security theater, short selling, Skype, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons

Climate scientists have reacted to this challenge in a variety of ways, some involving themselves more in the political debate and others keeping it at arm’s length. Michael Mann, who is director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, was once at the center of a controversy. “Climategate” concerned the hacking of a server at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia,103 which produces the temperature record that the UK’s Met Office uses. Skeptics alleged that Mann and other scientists had conspired to manipulate the CRU’s temperature record. The pertinent facts are that the scientists were cleared of wrongdoing by a panel of their peers,104 and that the CRU’s temperature record is quite consistent with the others105—but Mann and other scientists in the hacked e-mails demonstrated a clear concern with the public relations elements of how the science would be perceived.

In practice, the model underestimates the error slightly—and therefore somewhat underestimates the chance of a cooling decade—because the exact amount of CO2 is an unknown, as well as because of any specification uncertainty in the model. 103. “Climatic Research Unit E-Mail Controversy;” Wikipedia.org. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_email_controversy. 104. Henry Chu, “Panel Clears Researchers in ‘Climategate’ Controversy,” Los Angeles Times, April 15, 2010. http://articles.latimes.com/2010/apr/15/world/la-fg-climate-data15-2010apr15. 105. Including those from satellite records processed by private companies. 106. “Climate of Fear;” editorial in Nature, 464, 141 (March 11, 2010). http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v464/n7286/full/464141a.html. 107.

., 223–24, 225, 228, 230, 432 Chicago, University of, 227 Chicago Cubs, 63, 104 Chicago White Sox, 88 Chile, 144, 438 China, 189, 209, 400 chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 375 Christchurch, New Zealand, 174 Christianity, 490 CIA, 51, 467 terrorism prevention by, 273, 424, 426, 433, 443, 510 CIBC Oppenheimer, 352 cigarette smoking, 254–55, 258 Cinema Rex theater, 425n Cirque du Soleil, 318 Citizens Bank Park, 286 Civil Aeronautics Administration, 123n Civil Protection Department, Italy, 143 Clarke, Richard, 425 Clauset, Aaron, 427, 431, 432, 437, 441, 442, 511–12 Clean Air Act, 400 Cleveland, Grover, 334 Cleveland Cavaliers, 239–40, 257 Clift, Eleanor, 48, 49, 50, 56 climate change, use of term, 376, 377n see also global warming Climategate, 408 Climatic Research Unit (CRU), 408 climatology, 131, 132, 370–411 Bayesian reasoning in, 371, 377–78, 403, 406–7, 407, 410–11 models of, 371, 380, 384–85, 401–6, 402 signal vs. noise in, 371–73 uncertainty in, 389–93, 390 Clinton, Bill, 55, 56, 433, 510 Clinton, Hillary, 59, 60, 252 clouds, 385, 386 CNN, 217 coal, 410 cognitive psychology, 227 Cole, USS, 422, 423 comets, 447 commerce, 10 Commerce Department, U.S., 123n commercial lending, 187 commodity prices, 186n, 202 common sense, 451 communism, 51 community cards, 299 compartments, in disease modeling, 220–21, 223 competition, 1, 16, 97, 106, 128, 189 in poker, 313 in the stock market, 313, 352, 364 in weather forecasting, 127–28, 131–37, 132 competitive advantage, 313–14 competitiveness, 97 complexity, of global warming forecasting, 382 complexity theory, 172–73, 368–69, 386 chaos theory vs., 386ncomputer age, 7–8 computers: chess played by, 261–62, 287–88; see also Deep Blue; Deep Thought; Fritz poker played by, 324 predictions and, 292 weather forecasting by, 116–18, 123–25, 289 condom fatigue, 222–23 cone of chaos, 139 Conference Board, 187 confidence, 46 accuracy and, 203 see also overconfidence confidence interval, see margin of error Congress, U.S., 19, 123n, 207, 408 low approval rating of, 188 see also House of Representatives, U.S.; Senate, U.S.

 

pages: 558 words: 168,179

Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right by Jane Mayer

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affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, anti-communist, Bakken shale, bank run, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, centre right, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collective bargaining, crony capitalism, David Brooks, desegregation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, energy security, estate planning, Fall of the Berlin Wall, George Gilder, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, invisible hand, job automation, low skilled workers, market fundamentalism, Mont Pelerin Society, More Guns, Less Crime, Nate Silver, New Journalism, obamacare, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ralph Nader, Renaissance Technologies, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, school choice, school vouchers, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Chicago School, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, Unsafe at Any Speed, War on Poverty, working poor

But instead of using Monica Lewinsky’s telltale garment to impeach Bill Clinton, they would use the words of the world’s leading climate scientists to impeach the climate change movement. If edited down and taken out of context, their exchanges could be made to appear to suggest a willingness to falsify data in order to buttress the idea that global warming was real. Dubbing the alleged scandal Climategate, they went into overdrive. The web of organizations, funded in part by the Kochs, pounced on the hacked e-mails. Cato scholars were particularly energetic in promoting the story. In the two weeks after the e-mails went public, one Cato scholar alone gave more than twenty media interviews trumpeting the alleged scandal.

The only genuinely negative disclosure from the e-mails was that Mann and the other climatologists had agreed among themselves to withhold, rather than share, their research with some of their critics, whom they disparaged. Given the harassment they had been subjected to, their reasoning was understandable, but it violated the customary transparency expected within the scientific community. Other than that, the “Climategate” scandal was, in other words, not one. It took no time, nevertheless, for the hacked e-mails to spur a witch hunt. Within days, Inhofe and other Republicans in Congress who were recipients of Koch campaign donations demanded an investigation into Mann. They sent threatening letters to Penn State, where he was by then a tenured professor.

One posted a report: Marc Sheppard, “UN Climate Reports: They Lie,” American Thinker, Oct. 5, 2009. “A miracle has happened”: The Web site on which the contrarian wrote was Climate Audit. “The blue dress moment”: Chris Horner, “The Blue Dress Moment May Have Arrived,” National Review, Nov. 19, 2009. “a crucial tipping point”: Tim Phillips was speaking about the Climategate leaks at the Heritage Foundation on October 26, 2010, as reported by Brad Johnson, Climate Progress, Nov. 27, 2010. Phillips did all he could to exploit the situation, staging an Americans for Prosperity protest in Copenhagen outside the United Nations conference on climate change, where he declared, “We’re a grassroots organization…I think it’s unfortunate when wealthy children of wealthy families…want to send unemployment rates in the United States to twenty percent.”

 

pages: 337 words: 103,273

The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring on the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World by Paul Gilding

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airport security, Albert Einstein, BRICs, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, Climategate, corporate social responsibility, decarbonisation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fear of failure, income inequality, Joseph Schumpeter, market fundamentalism, Naomi Klein, new economy, nuclear winter, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, union organizing, University of East Anglia

There is organized skepticism, but it comes primarily from small groups that have banded together specifically for the purpose of promoting uncertainty, as opposed to the scientific bodies that are structured to apply their expertise objectively across a scientific discipline. These organized groups leap on any mistake, such as those detailed in the so-called Climategate e-mails, and pretend it has some greater significance regarding the whole process and conclusions, even though numerous independent reports and investigations concluded the Climategate e-mails did nothing to question the science of climate change.7 So it is important to separate the two types of skepticism. On the one hand, we have the scientific process, where outliers have a healthy role to play in challenging dominant views and seeking to find holes in consensus positions.

 

pages: 369 words: 98,776

The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas

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back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Haber-Bosch Process, ice-free Arctic, invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Negawatt, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, planetary scale, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, Stewart Brand, University of East Anglia

Copycat think tanks and ideologues, again almost exclusively on the libertarian political right, quickly sprouted up in other countries too. Indeed, climate denialists became so successful in 2009 that they managed to dominate the media agenda via a series of manufactured scandals that engulfed much of the climate-science community. Deniers promoting the so-called “Climategate” affair took a few out-of-context quotes and superficially embarrassing private slips by leading scientists from some leaked emails and nearly managed to publicly discredit not only the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia but several other leading institutes too. Vociferous promoters of a subsequent scandal took a single mistake about Himalayan glaciers, buried deep in the second weighty tome of the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, and used it to attack the entire IPCC process, and the role of Chair Rajendra Pachauri in particular.

cadmium calcium carbonate Calcutta Cambrian explosion Canada Cancún, UN climate change meeting, 2010 “cap and trade” programs carbon: cycle; offsetting/markets capture and storage (CCS); price; politics of; black carbon dioxide emissions: planetary boundary for Carbon Trade Watch cars see vehicles Cartagena Dialogue Cato Institute CFCs Cheatneutral.com Chernobyl Chesser, Robert China 21 coal power in; nuclear power in; dam construction; “night soil” industry; meat eating in; demand for fossil fuels; alternatives to high carbon aviation; hydroelectricity; virtual water and; pollution incidents; aerosol pollution; black carbon and; transport pollution; emissions standards; CFC production; Copenhagen summit and; population growth; vehicle ownership, growth in emissions; food production; investment in low-carbon technologies Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning Climate Action Network Climate Action Partnership climate change: carbon offsetting/markets and; deniers; extinction and; boundary see climate change boundary; tipping points; methane and; agreements/negotiations; nitrates worsen; solar radiation management and; see also carbon dioxide emissions, China, individual agreement/negotiation name, nuclear power, population, renewables under individual event and area name climate change boundary; 350: current evidence; 350: modeling evidence; 350: past evidence; toward a technofix?; technologies for new technologies for the future; politics of carbon; sea level rise; Arctic thaw and; destabilization of Atlantic Ocean circulation; models Climate Fix, The (Pielke Jnr) “Climategate”, 2009 Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia Clinton, Bill Club of Rome coal power Cochabamba, Bolivia Collapse (Diamond) Colorado River Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas Condit Dam Congo Basin Forest Fund Congress, US Convention on Biological Diversity, Nagoya, 2010 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, 1979 COP15 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Copenhagen Accord Copenhagen climate summit, 2009 coral reefs Corporate Watch Costa Rica Costanza, Robert Cretaceous Period Crookes, William Crutzen, Paul Current Opinion in Plant Biology Cyclone Nargis Da Silva, Luiz Inácio Lula Dai, Aiguo Daly, Herman Dampier, William dams, removing unnecessary; hydroelectric; Chinese construction of; fishery collapse and; tidal barrages; block natural flow of water; threaten species; affects water temperature; water trapped behind loses most of its sediment load; current water use; where water is taken from Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty DDT Dead Sea dead zones deep-sea floating turbines deforestation Delta smelt “demographic transition” Dhaka Diamond, Jared diesel engines Dinorwig, Wales DuPont Earth: goldilocks state; self-regulating; “snowball”; ice-albedo feedback; see also carbon: cycle “earthshine” East Antarctic Ice Sheet Economics of Ecosystems & Biodiversity, The (TEEB) report, 2010 Economist Ecuador Edwards Dam Egypt electric vehicles Endangered Species Act, U.S.

 

pages: 285 words: 86,174

Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy by Chris Hayes

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affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, asset-backed security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, carried interest, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, dark matter, David Brooks, David Graeber, deindustrialization, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, fixed income, full employment, George Akerlof, hiring and firing, income inequality, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Julian Assange, Mark Zuckerberg, mass affluent, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, Nate Silver, peak oil, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rolodex, The Spirit Level, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce

., “Shadow Banking,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 458 (July 2010): p. 65. 36 “As a student of Kafka, Koestler, and Solzhenitsyn”: Raffi Khatchadourian, “No Secrets,” New Yorker, June 7, 2010. 37 “We deplore WikiLeaks”: Quoted in Jim Garamone, “Pentagon Prepares for Possible WikiLeaks Publication,” Armed Forces Press Service, October 22, 2010. 38 “We’re not in the mess we’re in, in the world, because of too many leaks”: Video and transcript available at http://www.ellsberg.net/archive/daniel-ellsberg-on-colbert-report, accessed January 19, 2012. 39 “What we want people to do is fight with the truth”: See “WikiLeaks on ‘Climategate,’ ” YouTube, www.youtube.com/watch?v=w17dw_aJEWU, accessed April 5, 2012. 40 “It doesn’t matter what we think”: Ibid. 41 “If your gut said”: Cited in “Beck’s ‘Brand-New Reality’ on Climate Change Relies on Distorting Apparently Stolen E-Mails,” Media Matters for America, November 23, 2009. 42 “rigour and honesty”: Cited in Justin Gillis, “British Panel Clears Scientists,” New York Times, July 7, 2010. 43 “long after the damage is done, revealed as utterly bereft of substance”: See David Roberts, “What We Have and Haven’t Learned from ‘Climategate,’ ” Grist, March 1, 2011. 44 In the UK, a quarter of the population is “unconvinced” that the planet’s temperatures are warming: Cited in Steve Doughty, “Global Warming Skepticism Doubles in U.K.,” Daily Mail, January 29, 2011. 45 “In the United States, roughly two-thirds of the population are unconvinced that global warming is “a very serious problem.”: See “Energy Update: 30% Say Global Warming a Very Serious Problem,” Rasmussen Reports, January 7, 2012, http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/environment_energy/energy_update, accessed January 20, 2012. 46 “At no other time in U.S. history were the news media more influential”: Gene Roberts and Hank Klibanoff, The Race Beat: The Press, the Civil Rights Struggle, and the Awakening of a Nation (New York: Random House, 2007), p. 7. 47 “there is no doubt”: Ibid., p. 6. 48 “We’re marching over the cliff”: See interview with Noam Chomsky in “Peak Oil and a Changing Climate,” Videonation, www.youtube.com/watch?

 

pages: 552 words: 168,518

MacroWikinomics: Rebooting Business and the World by Don Tapscott, Anthony D. Williams

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accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, Bretton Woods, business climate, business process, car-free, carbon footprint, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collaborative editing, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, colonial rule, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, demographic transition, distributed generation, don't be evil, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fault tolerance, financial innovation, Galaxy Zoo, game design, global village, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, hive mind, Home mortgage interest deduction, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jaron Lanier, jimmy wales, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Marshall McLuhan, medical bankruptcy, megacity, mortgage tax deduction, Netflix Prize, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shock, online collectivism, open borders, open economy, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, scientific mainstream, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, social web, software patent, Steve Jobs, text mining, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, value at risk, WikiLeaks, X Prize, young professional, Zipcar

“Similarly we don’t have to be 100% certain that dangerous climate change will occur to take action to cut emissions.”7 Of course climate deniers, and those who see the world’s attempt to control climate change as a threat to their business interests, will continue to unleash their armies of lobbyists to water down policy, spread bogus science, and block innovations that might threaten their business models. But the best way to counter backroom lobbying and misinformation is not to hunker down as some climate scientists have in the wake of the climategate scandal (see chapter 9), but to foster greater transparency and open debate around the risks of not acting now. For instance, Palmer suggests that everyone concerned about the climate change issue, particularly those who are skeptical, ask themselves exactly how large the probability of serious climate change should be before we should start cutting emissions: 0.1 percent?

From decisions about whether to regulate a new technology, to the ongoing need to assess the impacts of urban development on the local ecology, objective scientific analysis is often central to the formulation of effective public policies. As the intermingling of science and public policy intensifies in an era of new global risks, questions about how scientists relate to the public and how the public relates to science are becoming critical. Nothing illustrates the challenges better than the recent “climategate” scandal in which a large stash of e-mails from and to investigators at the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia provided more than enough evidence for concern about the way some climate science is done. The science discussed in the e-mails is mostly from one small area of climate research—the taking of raw temperature data from thermometers, satellites, and proxy measures of historical climate such as tree rings and turning it into usable information on temperature trends.

The situation came to a head when the e-mail records of prominent climate scientists were stolen and then published, exposing years of heated and often unfortunate exchanges between climate researchers and the bloggers who were hounding them. Depending on your perspective there are two competing analyses of what “climategate” means, says Fred Pearce, an environment writer who led a major investigation into the controversy on behalf of the The Guardian.6 Climate scientists tend to see it as the mob storming the lab—the story of a malicious attempt to disrupt, cross-question, belittle, and trash the work of mainstream scientists.

 

pages: 212 words: 49,544

WikiLeaks and the Age of Transparency by Micah L. Sifry

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1960s counterculture, Amazon Web Services, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, Buckminster Fuller, Chelsea Manning, citizen journalism, Climategate, crowdsourcing, Google Earth, Howard Rheingold, Internet Archive, Jacob Appelbaum, Julian Assange, Network effects, RAND corporation, school vouchers, Skype, social web, Stewart Brand, web application, WikiLeaks

“Hillary Clinton, and several thousand diplomats around the world are going to have a heart attack when they wake up one morning, and find an entire repository of classified foreign policy is available, in searchable format, to the public,” Manning reportedly wrote Lamo. “Everywhere there’s a U.S. post, there’s a diplomatic scandal that will be revealed,” Manning wrote. “It’s open diplomacy. World-wide anarchy in CSV format. It’s Climategate with a global scope, and breathtaking depth. It’s beautiful, and horrifying.” The recipient of these leaks, Manning told Lamo at one point in the transcript: “a crazy white haired aussie who can’t seem to stay 32 MICAH L. SIFRY in one country very long.” Later he made it explicit: “Crazy white haired dude = Julian Assange.”14 (Despite this apparent statement, as of late January 2011 government investigators had reportedly not yet found a way to connect Manning directly to Assange.)15 Why did Manning allegedly do it?

 

pages: 400 words: 94,847

Reinventing Discovery: The New Era of Networked Science by Michael Nielsen

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Albert Einstein, augmented reality, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, Cass Sunstein, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dark matter, discovery of DNA, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, Firefox, Freestyle chess, Galaxy Zoo, Internet Archive, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Kevin Kelly, Magellanic Cloud, means of production, medical residency, Nicholas Carr, publish or perish, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, semantic web, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Singh, Skype, slashdot, social web, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Nature of the Firm, The Wisdom of Crowds, University of East Anglia, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge

[42] Hyunyoung Choi and Hal Varian. Predicting the present with Google trends. Google Research blog, April 12, 2009. http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2009/04/predicting-present-with-google-trends.html. [43] Andy Clark and David J. Chalmers. The extended mind. Analysis, 58:10–23, 1998. [44] “Climategate” exposed: Conservative media distort stolen emails in latest attack on global warming consensus. Media Matters, December 1, 2009. http://mediamatters.org/research/200912010002. [45] Robert P. Colwell. The Pentium Chronicles. Hoboker, NJ: IEEE Computer Society, 2006. [46] Seth Cooper, Firas Khatib, Adrien Treuille, Janos Barbero, Jeehyung Lee, Michael Beenen, Andrew Leaver-Fay, David Baker, Zoran Popović & Foldit players.

 

pages: 322 words: 99,066

The End of Secrecy: The Rise and Fall of WikiLeaks by The "Guardian", David Leigh, Luke Harding

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4chan, banking crisis, centre right, Chelsea Manning, citizen journalism, Climategate, cloud computing, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, Downton Abbey, eurozone crisis, friendly fire, global village, Hacker Ethic, impulse control, Jacob Appelbaum, Julian Assange, knowledge economy, Mohammed Bouazizi, offshore financial centre, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steven Levy, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks

“Everywhere there’s a US post, there’s a diplomatic scandal that will be revealed. Iceland, the Vatican, Spain, Brazil, Madagascar: if it’s a country, and it’s recognised by the US as a country, it’s got dirt on it. It’s open diplomacy, world-wide anarchy in CSV format [a simple text format]. It’s Climategate with a global scope, and breathtaking depth. It’s beautiful, and horrifying, and it’s important that it gets out. I feel for some bizarre reason it might actually change something. I just don’t wish to be a part of it, at least not now … I’m not ready. I wouldn’t mind going to prison for the rest of my life, or being executed so much, if it wasn’t for the possibility of having pictures of me plastered all over the world press as a boy.

 

pages: 541 words: 109,698

Mining the Social Web: Finding Needles in the Social Haystack by Matthew A. Russell

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Climategate, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, en.wikipedia.org, fault tolerance, Firefox, full text search, Georg Cantor, Google Earth, information retrieval, Mark Zuckerberg, natural language processing, NP-complete, profit motive, Saturday Night Live, semantic web, Silicon Valley, slashdot, social graph, social web, statistical model, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, text mining, traveling salesman, Turing test, web application

@n2vip You've obviously never read an ebook on the iPhone. It's a great reading ... @n2vip I wasn't suggesting that insurance was the strange world, just that you ... @n2vip In high tech, there is competition from immigrant workers. Yet these two ... @n2vip How right you are. We really don't do a good job teaching people ... @n2vip The climategate stuff is indeed disturbing. But I still hold by what ... @n2vip FWIW, I usually do follow links, so do include them if appropriate. Thanks. @n2vip I don't mind substantive disagreement - e.g. with pointers to real info ... @n2vip Totally agree that ownership can help. But you need to understand why ...

 

pages: 421 words: 120,332

The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith

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Bretton Woods, BRICs, clean water, Climategate, colonial rule, deglobalization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, flex fuel, global supply chain, Google Earth, guest worker program, Hans Island, hydrogen economy, ice-free Arctic, informal economy, invention of agriculture, invisible hand, land tenure, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Y2K

., PepsiCo, Rio Tinto, Shell, Siemens Corporation, and Xerox Corporation.41 However, by late 2009 the rush of corporations to join the U.S. Climate Action Partnership had slowed, following the failed climate treaty conference at Copenhagen, some dumb e-mails circulated among a clique of climate scientists (the so-called Climategate scandal, a scientifically minor but politically devastating public-relations fiasco), and a moribund cap-and-trade bill in the U.S. Senate. By 2010 ConocoPhillips, BP America, Caterpillar, and Xerox had pulled out. Gas molecules are impervious to politics, so all of this is really just the beginning.

 

pages: 326 words: 48,727

Hot: Living Through the Next Fifty Years on Earth by Mark Hertsgaard

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Berlin Wall, business continuity plan, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth, en.wikipedia.org, Fall of the Berlin Wall, food miles, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, peak oil, Port of Oakland, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, the built environment, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, transit-oriented development, University of East Anglia, urban planning

Bottom line: the AP found zero evidence of fraud, a conclusion later shared by two official investigations by British government bodies. In the words of the AP's headline, "Science Not Faked, but Not Pretty." But by the time that AP story was published, the rest of the media had embraced the deniers' framing of the controversy as "Climate-gate," thus implicitly endorsing the notion that evil deeds were afoot and amplifying the underlying suggestion that climate science was bunk. A few weeks later, news outlets again advanced the deniers' agenda when they repeatedly devoted ominous headlines to a handful of inaccuracies discovered in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, including the mistaken assertion that the Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035.