91 results back to index
Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence by Robert Bryce
Berlin Wall, Colonization of Mars, decarbonisation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, financial independence, flex fuel, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Markoff, Just-in-time delivery, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price stability, Project for a New American Century, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, Whole Earth Catalog, X Prize, Yom Kippur War
This fact was made clear by Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi in 2006 during a speech in Washington, when he said: Energy security cannot be maintained when prices are at extremes— too low or too high. Truly sustainable energy security for consumers and producers requires three conditions—price stability, supply and demand reliability, and affordability. These are the three pillars of sustainable energy security. Affordability applies to both consumers and producers. If producers are forced to sell their energy resources at a low price, they eventually cannot afford to make the capital investments required to maximize long-term capacity. On the other hand, producers undermine their own security when their resources are not affordable to consumers. The foundation of sustainable energy security is a price low enough to avoid harming consumers, yet high enough to assure adequate return on investment for producers.5 No matter how much various factions in the U.S. may bash them, the Saudis’ preeminence in the global oil market will continue.
Increasing wealth and better standards of living are good for everyone. The World of Interdependence 267 REDEFINE ENERGY SECURITY Few phrases in the energy lexicon are as abused as “energy security.” The phrase gets tossed around all the time, but few people agree on what it means. The best definition comes from A. F. Alhajji who, in late 2007 defined it thusly: “Energy security is the steady availability of energy supplies that ensures economic growth in both consuming and producing countries with the lowest social cost and lowest price volatility.” Alhajji’s definition echoes the conclusions reached by the National Petroleum Council in its July 2007 report on future energy supplies. The report said that “energy independence is not realistic in the foreseeable future, whereas U.S. energy security can be enhanced by moderating demand, expanding and diversifying domestic energy supplies, and strengthening global energy trade and investment.
The report said that “energy independence is not realistic in the foreseeable future, whereas U.S. energy security can be enhanced by moderating demand, expanding and diversifying domestic energy supplies, and strengthening global energy trade and investment. There can be no U.S. energy security without global energy security” (italics added).34 In other words, America’s ability to secure the energy it needs hinges on a stable, prosperous, global marketplace and global economy in which all of the players—producers and consumers alike—are able to get the energy they need at reasonable prices. Energy security means accepting energy interdependence. It means moving past the racism and xenophobia that dominate the current energy rhetoric and embracing the global market. It means helping the developing countries of the world build energy infrastructure so they can develop their economies and raise the living standards of their people. Unless and until those things happen, the U.S. won’t have energy security. ACCEPT INCREASING ENERGY USE AND ADAPT TO A CHANGING GLOBAL CLIMATE In 2006, China’s electric grid added France.
American energy revolution, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Carmen Reinhart, crony capitalism, deglobalization, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fixed income, full employment, global supply chain, hiring and firing, hydraulic fracturing, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kenneth Rogoff, manufacturing employment, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea
They emphasize the fact that, as the Congressional Budget Office has noted, “greater production of oil in the United States would probably not protect U.S. consumers from sudden worldwide increases in oil prices,” suggesting the economy as a whole could not be insulated either. And they sharply question the security benefits of greater domestic production: according to the Energy Security Leadership Council, a bipartisan group of prominent business executives and retired military and government leaders from across the political spectrum, “as long as the United States remains a large consumer of oil, no level of domestic fuel production can meaningfully improve energy security.”37 O pen any Economics 101 textbook and you’ll learn what determines oil prices: it’s the collision of supply and demand. High prices make production more attractive and encourage people to cut back how much they use. If prices get too high, supply outstrips demand, and an oil glut develops; eventually, prices crash.
Natural Resources Defense Council, “Reducing Imported Oil with Comprehensive Climate and Energy Legislation,” March 2010, http://www. nrdc.org/energy/files/reducingimportedoil.pdf. 27. Vello A. Kuuskraa, Tyler Van Leeuwen, and Matt Wallace, “Improving Domestic Energy Security and Lowering CO2 Emissions with ‘Next Generation’ CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2-EOR),” National Energy Technology Laboratory, Washington, D.C., June 20, 2011. 28. Energy Information Administration, “Energy Market and Economic Impacts of the American Power Act of 2010,” Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Washington, D.C., July 2010. 29. Natural Resources Defense Council, “Reducing Imported Oil.” 30. Kuuskraa et al., “Improving Domestic Energy Security.” 31. James T. Bartis, Tom LaTourrette, Lloyd Dixon, D. J. Peterson, and Gary Cecchine, Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issues (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2005).
., Oil Shale Development in the United States. 34. Ibid. 35. Quoted in David Ignatius, “An Economic Boom Ahead?” Washington Post, May 4, 2012. NOTES FOR PAGES 65–78 • 227 36. Jocelyn Fong, “20 Experts Who Say Drilling Won’t Lower Gas Prices,” Media Matters for America, March 22, 2012, http://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/ 03/22/20-experts-who-say-drilling-wont-lower-gas-pric/184040. 37. Energy Security Leadership Council, “The New American Oil Boom: Implications for Energy Security,” Washington, D.C., 2012. 38. International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook: Tensions from the Two-Speed Recovery, Washington, D.C. (April 2011). Author’s calculations. 39. James D. Hamilton, “Historical Oil Shocks,” in The Handbook of Major Events in Economic History, ed. Randall E. Parker and Robert M. Whaples (New York: Taylor & Francis, 2013). 40.
Living in a Material World: The Commodity Connection by Kevin Morrison
barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, commoditize, commodity trading advisor, computerized trading, diversified portfolio, Doha Development Round, Elon Musk, energy security, European colonialism, flex fuel, food miles, Hernando de Soto, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Long Term Capital Management, new economy, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, price mechanism, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transaction costs, uranium enrichment, young professional
Bush espouses a similar goal to Nixon, however, his energy policy doctrine was dismissed last year by a team of energy executives, policymakers and analysts, who make up the National Petroleum Council (NPC) in the US. ‘Energy Independence should not be confused with strengthening energy security. The concept of energy independence is not realistic in the foreseeable future, whereas US energy security can be enhanced by moderating demand, expanding and diversifying domestic energy supplies, and strengthening global energy trade and investment,’ the NPC said. ‘There can be no US energy security without global energy security.’ (National Petroleum Council, 2007). ENERGY | 31 Until cleaner energies become commercially viable, the world will continue to consume more coal and oil. With the end of the Bush– Cheney government drawing near, the legacy is a more polluted US and a country that is even more dependent on foreign oil.
Bush’s support for the coal industry underlines his prioritizing of energy security over global warming. About half of all US electricity is generated by coal; the country burns more than 1 billion tonnes a year and most of that is met by local production. Almost two-thirds of US coal production comes from mines in Wyoming, West Virginia and Kentucky, with most of the coal moved by train across America. Many drivers that get caught by the red lights at a level crossing in America is often because they are waiting for a coal freight train to pass with dozens of carriages filled to the brim with coal. Politicians talk about energy security and climate change in the same breath, but so far they have been proven to be largely contradictory objectives. Energy security has become a major focus under President Bush following the September 11 attacks, the wars in Iraq ENERGY | 29 and Afghanistan and the sabre rattling between the Bush government and Iran.
(Comex) 255 Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) (US) 74, 253, 263 commodity indices 240–2 commodity market manipulation 245–7 Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) 238 Congo, copper in 201, 202, 210–11 | 293 Connaughton, James 29, 31 ConocoPhilips 57, 79 Conservation International 93 Continental Power Exchange (CPE) 257, 258 Cooke, Jay 198, 222 n. 18 copper 4, 9, 11 applications 187–90 Congo 201, 202, 210–11 cost 211–13, 214–17 demand 182–5 electrical applications 186–7 in electricity generation 194–5 history 185–6 prices 199–201, 222 n. 17 production 195–8, 199 recycling 183, 184–5 theft 179–82 trade 211–13 under-sea extraction 217 in vehicles 190–4 Copper Export Association 201 Copper Exporters Incorporated 201 Copper Producers’ Association 200 coralconnect.com 260 corn 68–84, 96–8, 98–9, 99–101 hybrids 101–3 GM 104–6 diversity 106–10 Corn Products 233 cotton 166 Countryside Alliance 146 credit crisis (2007) 7 Crocker, Thomas 138 Cruse, Richard 111 D1 Oils 57, 58, 59 Dabhol gas-fired power plant 35 Dales, John 138 Daly, Herman 136 Darwin, Charles 67 Davis, Adam 157 Davis, Miles 183 Day after Tomorrow, The 15 n. 1 De Angelis, Anthony ‘Tino’ 245 De Beers 200, 210 De Soto, Hernando 136 Deere, John 100 deforestation 87, 147 Dennis, Richard 237 Deripaska, Oleg 199 Deutsche Bank 246, 261 294 | INDEX Diamond, Jared 97 DiCaprio, Leonardo 130 Dimas, Stavros 160 distillers’ dried grains with solubles (DDGS) 81 Dittar, Thomas 231 Donchian, Richard 237–8 Donson, Harry 199 dot.com bubble 7, 14, 241, 243 Doud, Gregg 82, 83 Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index 240 Dresdner Kleinwort 47 Drexel Burnham Lambert 254 Dreyfus, Louis 89 Duke Energy 258 Dunavant, Billy 237 DuPont 102 E85 79 Ealet, Isabelle 259, 260 Earth Sanctuatires 157 Earth Summit Bali 142 Rio 1992 141 Ebay 38 Ecosystem Marketplace 157 Edison, Thomas 17, 95, 186 Ehrlich, Paul 13, 14, 16 n. 9 Population Bomb, The 14 Eisenhower, President 40 El Paso 258 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 153 electric vehicles 54, 191–3 11th Hour, The 130 Elf 261 Elton, Ben 135 Emissions Trading Program 139 Energy Information Administration (EIA) 38 Energy Policy Act 2005 (US) 28 energy security 28–9 Energy Security Act 1980 (US) 74 Enron 35, 164, 165, 213, 246, 257–64 Enron Online 213, 225 n. 40, 257, 258, 259 Environmental Protection Agency (US) 27, 62 n. 17, 75, 139 ethanol 69–70, 73–81, 92, 119 n. 6 see also biofuels Eurex 262 European Climate Exchange 146 European Union 142, 158, 160 Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) 185 Evelyn, John 127 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) 13, 270 Exxon 32, 50, 52, 261 ExxonMobil 13, 79, 242, 254 Faraday, Michael 186 Farm Credit Administration 76 farm debt crisis 114–15 farm payments 115–16 farm sinks 154–5 Fearnley-Whittingstall 86 Federal Bureau of Investigation 246 Federal Clean Water Act (US) 156 F-gases 131 Firewire 260 Fisher, Mark 266, 269 Fleming, Roddy 219 flex-fuel cars 92–3 Fonda, Jane 114 Food and Agricultural Organization 148, 159 Ford, Bill 267 Ford, President Gerald 30, 115 Ford, Henry 73, 95, 195 Fordlandia 195 forest economics 149–50 forestry carbon credits 147 forests 147–51 Forrest, Andrew 199 Forward Contracts (Regulations) Act 1952 (US) 249 Forward Markets Commission (FMC) 249 Four Winds Capital Management 149, 159, 184 Franklin, Benjamin 157 Freese, Barbara 27 Friedland, Robert 199 Frost Fairs 127 fuel cell vehicles 53, 192–3 Futures Inc. 237 futures trading 235–6, 245, 247–50 gas 21–2 Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) 61 n. 8 gasohol 73 gene shuffling 105 General Atlantic 267, 269 General Motors 53, 54, 191, 193 INDEX genetically modified organism (GMO) seeds 105–6 Glencore 199, 211 Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 148 Global Initiatives173 n. 28 Global Positioning Systems (GPS) 191 global warming 24–6, 75 Globex 267 glycerin 82 Golder and Associates 206 Goldman 255, 260, 261 Goldman Sachs 57, 146, 254, 259 Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) 240, 241 Goldstein Samuelson 245 Google 37, 38 Gore, Al 16 n. 5, 28, 38, 126, 129, 143 Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) certificates 146 Grant, President Ulysses S. 214 Greenburg, Marty 269 greenhouse effect 131 greenhouse gas emissions 25, 131 see also carbon dioxide; nitrous oxide Greenspan, Alan 244 Gresham Investment Management 242, 243 Guggenheim brothers 197 Guttman, Lou 251, 255, 259 Hamanaka, Yasuo 246 Hanbury-Tension, Robin 146 Harding, President Warren 103 hedge funds 23640 Henry Moore Foundation 180, 181 Herfindahl, Orris 215, 226 n. 46 Heston, Charlton 15, n. 4 Hezbollah 46 Hi-Bred Corn Company 102 high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) 89–90 Highland Star 219 Hill, James Jerome 215 Homestead Act 1862 (US) 100 Honda 53 Howard, John 133, 171 n. 16 Hu Jintao, President 219 Hub, Henry 257 Humphries, Jon 181 Hunt Brothers 245 Hunter, Brian 246, 247 | 295 Hurricane Katrina 135 Hurricane Rita 134 Hussein, Saddam 48 hybrid cars 53 hydroelectric power 34 hydrogen cars 54 hypoxia zone 111 iAqua 165 IEA 32 IMF 16 n. 6 Inconvenient Truth, An 16 n. 5, 129 Indonesia palm oil 93–4 Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) 31–2 intelligent lighting 38 IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) 246, 261, 262, 265, 266, 267 Intergovernmental Council of Copper Exporting Countries (CIPEC) 203, 204 International Bauxite Association (IBA) 203 International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) 144 International Commercial Exchange (ICE) 273 n. 15 International Copper Cartel 201 International Energy Agency (IEA) 19, 25, 26, 40, 140–1, 153, 194 International Monetary Fund 57 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (UN) 24, 132, 134, 147, 149, 170 n. 3 International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) 250, 256, 257, 262, 263, 264, 265 International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) 41 International Tin Council 203 International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture 107 Iowa Farm Bureau 36, 76, 155 Iowa Stored Energy Park 36 Japanese car market 18 Jardine Matheson 225 n. 40 Jarecki, Dr Henry 242, 243, 244 jatropha 57–9 Jefferson, Thomas 109 Jevons, William Stanley 20 Joint, Charles 181 296 | INDEX Joint Implementation (JI) 151 Jones, Paul Tudor 237, 238 Kabila, Joseph 210 Kanza, T.R. 211 Katanga of Congo 201, 225 n. 37 Kennecott Copper 199 Kennedy, Joseph (Joe) 264 Khosla Partners 38 Khosla, Vinod 37 Kitchen, Louise 258 Kleiner Perkins, Caufield & Byers 37 Kooyker, Willem 237, 238 Kovner, Bruce 237, 238 Krull, Pete 81 Kyoto Protocol 24, 27, 50, 140, 141, 142, 143, 147, 151, 169 n. 2, 194 clean development mechanism (CDM) 151 Lamkey, Kendall 112 Land and Water Resources, Inc. 155 Land Grant College Act (US) 101 Lange, Jessica 114 lead credits 172 n. 20 LED (light-emitting diodes) 38 Lehman brothers 241 Leiter, Joseph 245 Leopold II, King 210 Liebreich, Michael 39 Liffe 267 Lincoln, President Abraham 69, 100, 101, 119 n. 1 Lintner, Dr John 243 liquid coal 33–4 London Clearing House 263 London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (Liffe) 262 London Metal Exchange (LME) 16 n. 10, 43, 196, 204, 212, 213, 246 Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) 247 Louisiana Light Sweet 253 Lourey, Richard 166, 168 Lovelock, James 131 Lyme Timber Company, The 149 Mackintosh, John 232, 234, 270 Madonna 6 malaria 156 Malthus, Thomas 130 manure lagoons 154–5 Mao, Chairman 210 Markowitz, Harry 243 Marks, Jan 268 Marks, Michel 252, 253, 254, 268 Marks, Rebecca 164, 165 Mars, Forrest E., Jr 60 Matheson, Hugh 225 n. 40 Matif 262 McCain, John 80 McDonalds 89 Megatons to Megawatts programme 42 Melamed, Leo 249–50, 264 Mendel, Gregor (Johann) 102, 122 n. 30 Merrill Lynch 241, 246 Mesa Water 163–4 methane 128, 131, 152, 154 methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) 74 Microsoft 13 Midwestern Regional Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord 143 milk 88–9 Milken, Michael 254 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board 156 Mittal, Laskma 212 Mobile 261 Mocatta Metals 242 Monsanto 106, 108 Montéon, Michael 199 Montgomery, David 138 Moor Capital 237 Moore, Henry 179, 182 Morgan, J.P. 246 Morgan Stanley 254, 255, 259, 260, 261 Muir, John 125 Mulholland, William 162 Murphy, Eddie 256 Murray Darling Basin 165–6 Musk, Elon 38 Nabisco 238–9 Nanosolar 38 Nasdaq 262 Nassar, President 210 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 192 National Alcohol Programme (Brazil) 92 National Cattlemen’s Beef Association 82 National Commission on Supplies and Shortages (US) 7, 16 n. 5 National Corn Growers’ Association 80 National Energy Policy (US) 28 INDEX National Petroleum Council (NPC) 30, 50 National Security Space Office (NSSO) (US) 39 NCDEX 248, 249 Nelson, Willie 115 New Deal Farm Laws 103 New Deal for Agriculture 76, 89 New Energy Finance 39 New Farm and Forest Products Task Force 95 New York Board of Trade 240, 255 New York Cocoa Exchange 255 New York Coffee and Sugar Exchange 255 New York Cotton Exchange 237, 252, 255 New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) 43, 156, 246, 248, 251, 252, 253, 254, 255, 256, 257, 261, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 269 New York Metal Exchange 226 n. 42 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) 198, 253, 255, 256, 264, 268, 270 Newman, Paul 265 Nicholson, Jack 162 nickel 217–18, 227 n. 50, 227 n. 52 nitrates 110–11 nitrogen oxide emissions 139 nitrous oxide 131, 139, 140, 152 Nixon, President 27, 30, 115, 231, 252 Noble Group 199 North, John Thomas 198, 199, 209 Norton, Gale 163 nuclear energy 34 nuclear power 21, 39–44 Nuexco Trading Corporation 42 Nybot 255, 256, 265 Obama, Barack 79, 80, 143 obesity 121 n. 19 O’Connor, Edmund 231 O’Connor, William 231 OECD 158, 159 oil 44–53 energy content 51–2 palm 93 prices 8–9, 10, 52–3 sands 49–50 shale 50–1, 64 n. 33 shocks 5, 7 soya 82 trading 250–5, 266 Oliver, Jamie 86 onion futures trading 245 | 297 Ontario Teachers’ Fund 244, 272 n. 8 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) 4, 9, 10, 22, 44–7, 203, 204, 251, 254 over-the-counter (OTC) trading 16 n. 8, 254–5 Owens Valley rape (1908) 162 Pachauri, Dr Rajendra K. 59 Page, Larry 38 Paley Commission 8 palm oil 93 Palmer, Fred 62 n. 14 Parthenon Capital 156, 267 PayPal 38 Peadon, Brian 165 perfluorocarbon 131 PGGM 244 Phaunos Timber Fund 149 Phelps Dodge 199 Phibro 254 Pickens, T.
Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics by Francis Fukuyama
Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, cognitive bias, cuban missile crisis, energy security, flex fuel, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John von Neumann, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Norbert Wiener, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, The Wisdom of Crowds, trade route, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Yom Kippur War
Therefore, unlike corn, it does not require a government subsidy (in today’s cli- 2990-7 ch07 luft 7/23/07 12:11 PM Page 79 in search of energy security 79 mate of high prices, with production costs of corn ethanol well under $1.50 a gallon and selling costs about $2.30, it is questionable whether corn ethanol requires its current subsidies). Unfortunately, the United States does not have an ideal climate for growing sugar cane—sugar needs a long, frost-free growing season—and is not able to ramp up sugar production to the level needed to even come close to satisfying its energy needs. This is why Latin American and Caribbean countries like Brazil, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Jamaica—all low-cost sugar cane producers—could become keys to U.S. energy security. Brazil, the Saudi Arabia of sugar, already exports half a billion gallons of ethanol a year and could provide the United States with cheap ethanol.
Cases: Looking Back 3 Slow Surprise: The Dynamics of Technology Synergy David Landes 4 U.S. Intelligence Estimates of Soviet Collapse: Reality and Perception Bruce Berkowitz 5 Econoshocks: The East Asian Crisis Case David Hale 23 29 42 Part II. Cases: Looking Ahead 6 The Once and Future DARPA William B. Bonvillian 57 v 2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page vi vi contents 7 Fueled Again? In Search of Energy Security Gal Luft and Anne Korin 71 8 Emerging Infectious Diseases: Are We Prepared? Scott Barrett 82 Part III. Forecasting 9 Ahead of the Curve: Anticipating Strategic Surprise Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall 10 Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Both Bold and Careful? Robert Lempert 11 Innovation and Adaptation: IT Examples M. Mitchell Waldrop 93 109 120 Part IV. What Could Be 12 Cassandra versus Pollyanna A Debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook 129 13 Global Discontinuities A Discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett 143 14 American Scenarios A Discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama 153 15 Afterword Francis Fukuyama 169 Notes 173 Contributors 181 Index 183 2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page vii BLINDSIDE 2990-7 ch0 frontmatter 7/23/07 12:05 PM Page viii 2990-7 ch01 fukuyama 8/8/07 2:12 PM Page 1 1 The Challenges of Uncertainty: An Introduction Francis Fukuyama The collapse of communism, the rapid emergence of China and India as major economic powers, the September 11 attacks, the appearance of relatively new diseases like HIV/AIDS and H5N1 bird flu, Hurricane Katrina—the past decade and a half has demonstrated that nothing is as certain as uncertainty in global politics.
Rome lacked the scientific institutions to capitalize on this latent technology, precisely the function for which DARPA has been organized. Think of the loss that results when a society fails to dedicate itself to innovation, even when the organizational tools are at hand. What a waste, and how embarrassing to posterity. 2990-7 ch07 luft 7/23/07 12:11 PM Page 71 7 Fueled Again? In Search of Energy Security Gal Luft and Anne Korin On February 17, 2006, a rebel group called the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) declared “total war” against oil companies operating in Nigeria’s main oil-producing region. Nigeria is Africa’s leading oil exporter and ranks fifth as an oil supplier to the United States. For oil companies, it is one of the most inhospitable domains on the planet in which to do business.
The Grid: The Fraying Wires Between Americans and Our Energy Future by Gretchen Bakke
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, autonomous vehicles, back-to-the-land, big-box store, Buckminster Fuller, demand response, dematerialisation, distributed generation, energy security, energy transition, full employment, illegal immigration, indoor plumbing, Internet of things, laissez-faire capitalism, Menlo Park, Negawatt, new economy, off grid, post-oil, profit motive, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart grid, smart meter, the built environment, too big to fail, washing machines reduced drudgery, Whole Earth Catalog
grew too costly to complete: The inordinate expense of building nuclear power plants, each of which was more like a carefully crafted work of art rather than a cookie-cutter prefab job and thus beset by the last-minute modifications and unanticipated delays that come with doing something complex for the first time, made this former truth of the industry’s business model stumble as well. “trucking transportation systems”: “Statement of Former U.S. President Carter at Energy Security Hearing Before U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee,” Carter Center, May 12, 2009, http://www.cartercenter.org/news/editorials_speeches/BostonGlobe-energy-security-hearings.html. decentralized power options: Carter also did a great deal to strengthen America’s reliance on fossil fuels, by encouraging more coal use and the exploitation of domestic oil. His problem was energy security and he was very catholic in his approach to solving it. Williams (1997), 325. commitment to fundamental change: This process might have been inevitable, for as Buckminster Fuller famously pointed out, “All the technical curves rise in tonnage and volumetric size to reach a giant peak after which miniaturization sets in.
A secure, ample energy system also includes good employment policies that lead to peaceful labor relations and good county, state, and federal regulations that ensure both the affordability and the long-term stability of extractive technologies. And it includes making sure that disasters like Love Canal or Deepwater Horizon are a thing of the past. Many of these integrated aspects of energy security can be controlled within the United States in ways that are impossible in war zones. The mistake is in imagining that the knowledge and organization necessary for abundance is naturally linked to energy security, or that a national infrastructure for supplying power to American towns and bases is situated in a “stable environment.” We have seen this with Hurricanes Sandy and Irene in the Northeast and Katrina and Rita along the Gulf Coast, the Gale in the Pacific Northwest, Boston’s Snowmageddon, the California droughts and their wildfires, and the annual spin of tornadoes that wipe out, and cause to be rebuilt year in and year out, the infrastructures that support northern Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska.
Amory Lovins, who coined the term “the Soft Energy Path” in 1976 as a means of articulating an alternative way of thinking about national security, argued that our hardened infrastructure, far from making things stronger, in fact increases infrastructural brittleness and thus also the ease with which the systems that sustain us can be broken. It is interesting to note that for the Lovinses (Amory wrote most often together with his wife, Hunter), security is not a domain isolated from the everyday. For them, energy security, oil supply chains, and a robust electrical infrastructure are all singular and inextricable elements of national security. Without our grid almost every element of modern life is lost. No computing power, no light, no telecommunications, no entertainment or news, no public transit, no air-conditioning, and in many places no potable or hot water. An otherwise undamaged refinery or pipeline will not operate without access to electric power.
A Line in the Tar Sands: Struggles for Environmental Justice by Tony Weis, Joshua Kahn Russell
Bakken shale, bilateral investment treaty, call centre, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial exploitation, conceptual framework, corporate social responsibility, decarbonisation, Deep Water Horizon, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, failed state, global village, guest worker program, happiness index / gross national happiness, hydraulic fracturing, immigration reform, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), investor state dispute settlement, invisible hand, liberal capitalism, LNG terminal, market fundamentalism, means of production, Naomi Klein, new economy, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, profit maximization, race to the bottom, smart grid, special economic zone, working poor
In a series dubbed “The War for the Oil Sands in Washington,” Tyee reporter Geoff Dembicki examined how “Doer has devoted much of his professional energy to promoting the oil sands industry, flying to industry roundtables, meeting with US policymakers, and speaking to national magazines.”27 On the legislative front, the Conservative government’s first target was a law established at the end of 2007: Section 526 of the Energy Security and Independence Act, which is often referred to as the Waxman bill, having been introduced by Democratic congressman Henry Waxman. The Waxman bill effectively forbids government agencies—including the US military, by far the largest government purchaser—from buying oil with a larger than average carbon footprint. In response, Canadian embassy officials began strategic communications with the American Petroleum Institute and its offshoot, the Center for North American Energy Security, as well as with companies such as Exxon Mobil, BP, Chevron, Marathon, Devon, and Encana.28 The goal was to ensure that the Waxman bill would not apply to the tar sands, as Waxman had intended.
According to Geoff Dembicki, Canadian officials attempted to intervene at least five times to affect how California defined its LCFS.33 In April 2009, Canada’s minister of natural resources, Lisa Raitt, wrote to Governor Schwarzenegger expressing a fear that “your LCFS regulation … could serve as a model for other states and perhaps the US federal government,” and urging “that the LCFS regulation should assign all mainstream crude oil fuel pathways the same CI [carbon intensity] rather than distinguish among different sources of crude oil.”34 The pressure did not stop there. The Center for North American Energy Security, an organization that has worked closely with the Canadian embassy in promoting the tar sands, sued California to repeal the LCFS in conjunction with two other groups, arguing that the policy would “harm [US] energy security by discouraging the use of Canadian crude oil.”35 The first phase of the lawsuit was successful, forcing California to postpone its LCFS policy in late 2011 until it could be adjudicated at a higher court. In 2010, the state of Wisconsin proposed an LCFS similar to California’s as part of its Clean Energy Jobs Act, and again Canadian officials formally intervened.
The centrality of oil in global capitalism is reflected in the fact that oil-centred giants, like ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Chevron, and Sinopec, consistently rank among the largest and most profitable corporations in the world. The geopolitical dimension of this push is plainly apparent in the Harper government’s attempts to promote Canada as a world “energy superpower,” which is capable of enhancing the “energy security” for its friends, most notably the US. It is clear that the race to expand the production of unconventional reserves like bitumen is tied to the decline of conventional oil and gas reserves. In addition to tar sands, this general pressure is also central to the rise of hydraulic fracturing (more commonly known as “fracking”) for “tight” oil and natural gas and the mining of kerogen shale (a bitumen-like substance), as well as increasing offshore drilling in deeper water and higher latitudes for conventional reserves.
3D printing, additive manufacturing, Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, borderless world, carbon footprint, centre right, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate governance, decarbonisation, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, global supply chain, hydrogen economy, income inequality, industrial cluster, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job automation, knowledge economy, manufacturing employment, marginal employment, Martin Wolf, Masdar, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, new economy, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, purchasing power parity, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, supply-chain management, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, urban planning, urban renewal, Yom Kippur War, Zipcar
So let’s get on with it.” —Bruce Mosler, chairman of Cushman & Wakefield Global Brokerage “Very compelling . . . while many experts focus on how to transform our energy systems, few offer such a comprehensive economic vision and social road map as Jeremy Rifkin. The ‘Energy Internet’ will lift our world to a new plateau of economic growth, while at the same time addressing climate change and increasing our energy security. . . . A must-read.” —Guido Bartels, chairman of the Global Smart Grid Federation “An exciting vision for a post-carbon society. Rifkin embeds green transport inside a new high-tech Third Industrial Revolution infrastructure, re-framing the very concept of human mobility. This could well be the future of transportation.” —Alan Lloyd, president of the International Council on Clean Transportation “The old ways of creating wealth just don’t work anymore, and politicians the world over are struggling to cope with the convergence of financial meltdown, huge debt, rising commodity and energy prices, accelerating climate change, and food and water shortages.
To be fair, I have seen this phenomenon over and over in my dealings with heads of state. They come into office on fire with ambitious visions of the future, only to succumb to the daily slog of putting out little fires. On his first day in office, President Obama turned immediately to the issue of resuscitating the economy. His administration latched on to the idea of bundling economic recovery with the two other critical challenges facing the country—energy security and climate change. The president began to talk up the prospect of a green economy and how it would create thousands of new businesses and millions of new jobs. The message resonated with many members of Congress. But the reason an overarching new economic game plan has never been rolled out is not just because we need to cut back public spending and reduce government deficits, but because the administration is missing, to quote former president George W.
While none of us oppose giant wind farms and solar parks—I even think they are essential to making a transition to a post-carbon Third Industrial Revolution economy—we began to believe these alone would not be sufficient. If renewable energy is found everywhere, how do we collect it? In early 2007, the European Parliament Energy and Climate Change committees were preparing reports on next steps in energy security and global warming. I received a call from Claude Turmes, the European Parliament’s leading authority on renewable energy. He urged me to enlist the construction industry in our efforts. Claude knew that I was in touch with some of Europe’s and America’s leading construction companies working in sustainable design and that I was beginning to give talks about the need to convert building stock into mini power plants.
Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order by Parag Khanna
Admiral Zheng, affirmative action, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, Bartolomé de las Casas, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, call centre, capital controls, central bank independence, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, complexity theory, continuation of politics by other means, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, energy security, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, flex fuel, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global supply chain, haute couture, Hernando de Soto, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, invisible hand, Islamic Golden Age, Khyber Pass, knowledge economy, land reform, low skilled workers, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, Monroe Doctrine, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, open economy, Parag Khanna, Pax Mongolica, Pearl River Delta, pirate software, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, Potemkin village, price stability, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, South China Sea, special economic zone, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Thomas L Friedman, trade route, trickle-down economics, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce
As during the Cold War, the United States and Russia still have nuclear weapons pointed at each other on hair-trigger alert. Yet even as Russia blocks NATO expansion and delays American missile shields, it cannot stop the EU. For over a decade, Europeans considered Russia “too close and too big” to aggravate, and it needed Russia’s cooperation to end the Balkan wars. But from Ukraine to Kosovo to Chechnya, Russia proved better at thwarting than assisting European goals like energy security, counterterrorism, and human rights. The tiny Baltic statelets then outmaneuvered Russia using diaspora lobbies, slick branding campaigns (think “E-stonia”), and investor-friendly economic policies, seducing the EU into uncommon quick-wittedness. When Russia stalled in settling its borders with the Baltic nations (which by EU regulation should have delayed their membership talks), Europe let these statelets in anyway.
Russia refers to the countries of the Caucasus as its “communal apartment”—code for a region where it can continue to wash the dirty laundry of the grand strategy it knows best: divide et impera. Russia provokes conflict and then intervenes, claiming it is the only power capable of separating these squabbling children to keep the peace. To break this cycle, the West’s new gamble is to make the Caucasus part of Europe’s “Near Abroad” rather than Russia’s. If it succeeds, the Caucasus nations will have risen out of the third world, and Western energy security will be that much closer to assured. GEORGIA: ON EUROPE’S MIND Imagine a country of abandoned villages, collapsed buildings, battered trucks belching clouds of foul exhaust, women selling corn on the roadside, children bathing in drying riverbeds, and haggard beggars in the capital city. Now imagine that its citizens are white. For all the rhetoric of reversed fortunes, revolutions reveal far more about how broken a society is than about how ingrained its virtues are.
Despite finally quelling the insurgency in Chechnya, Russia has yet to legitimize its rule in the broader Muslim-populated northern Caucasus region and the republic of Tatarstan, which with Europe’s largest mosque in Kazan remains a permissive environment for anti-Russian sentiment.2 The fierce Chechen character captured in Tolstoy’s Hadji Murat has sabotaged Russia throughout history—and may yet return. “They have tried to co-opt Chechnya,” observed a Georgian diplomat, citing the grand mosque Russia recently built in Grozny, just slightly smaller than that of Kazan. “But Russia never retreats the easy way, always choosing instead to make things more difficult for itself.” A sphere of influence is a sphere of responsibility, meaning that Western energy security and democratization strategies must come together to build another European subregion in the Caucasus—and to accelerate Russia’s retreat. Through the 1990s, energy companies were the West’s main representatives in the Caucasus, serving as self-interested but strategically backed commercial diplomats. They brokered the “deal of the century,” as it was then called: the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, the second longest in the world, built mostly underground to avoid sensitive areas (including circumventing Armenia altogether) and making Turkey, on whose Mediterranean shore the pipeline ends, a conduit for close to 10 percent of the world’s oil.3 At the inauguration of the BTC pipeline in 2005, Saakashvili declared it a geopolitical victory for Azerbaijan, Georgia, and the West “that will seriously change the balance of power in the region, bringing prosperity and strengthening independence.”4 With a $4 billion price tag, the thousand-mile BTC pipeline is a small price to pay to secure the Caucasus for the West.
Bakken shale, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, deindustrialization, energy security, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), means of production, mutually assured destruction, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, peak oil, price discovery process, rising living standards, sceptred isle, South China Sea, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War
Millions of people may have to endure many harsh years before this pernicious cult is vanquished. And until the global warming myth is exploded, the security of the United States—and thus of the world—is also at risk. A STRATEGIC ENERGY PLAN FOR THE UNITED STATES For the last forty years, American presidents have noted that energy security is a problem that needs addressing and solving. But none of those presidents has understood energy—even though one worked in the oil industry. A number of the presidents have acted against U.S. energy security, often unwittingly. Under President Nixon, the thorium molten-salt reactor project was killed off to free up funds for the plutonium fast-breeder reactor, which was itself later abandoned. President Ford stopped the recycling of spent nuclear fuel. President Carter built a synthetic fuels plant that made the wrong product.
Fifty percent of the inherent chemical energy in natural gas becomes power to the wheels in a CNG vehicle, and we can utilize it practically straight out of the ground. Some other nations have already arrived at the conclusion that CNG is what should be used as a vehicle fuel when one wishes to save oil. Both Iran and Pakistan have in the order of 2.9 million CNG passenger vehicles each, with market penetration in Pakistan being 70 percent. BLIND ALLEYS Devotees of the global warming myth, who at the moment are very effectively blocking our path to energy security for the future, are meanwhile also cheerleading for a number of alternative technologies, none of which can solve our energy problems. Electrically powered vehicles, for example, are a poor solution to the problem of providing cheap and efficient personal transport. Let’s begin with the question of energy efficiency. If coal is passed through a CTL plant and converted to diesel, 60 percent of the chemical energy the coal began with will be in that diesel.
For example, in Utah’s Piceance Basin, the formation is up to 1,600 feet thick with 800 feet of overburden. The open cut would therefore be at least 2,400 feet deep. Mining on this scale is already being undertaken in Utah. Just south of Salt Lake City, the nearly hundred-year-old Bingham Canyon copper mine has already reached a depth of 3,600 feet and is four miles long. CHINA FORGES AHEAD The issues of energy security, energy independence, and energy strategy rise to the top of public and political consciousness in the United States every so often, and then interest fades as the immediate problem seems to be overcome. By comparison, there is one country, and only one country, that has assessed the resources that nature has given it and is getting on with the job of securing its energy future. Unfortunately, that country also wishes the United States ill.
Why Nudge?: The Politics of Libertarian Paternalism by Cass R. Sunstein
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Andrei Shleifer, availability heuristic, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, clean water, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Edward Glaeser, endowment effect, energy security, framing effect, invisible hand, late fees, libertarian paternalism, loss aversion, nudge unit, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler
Related regulations require improvements in the energy efficiency of household appliances, such as refrigerators, clothes washers, and clothes dryers. What is the rationale for such regulations? Insofar as we are dealing with air pollution, the justification is quite standard: to reduce externalities. And insofar as the goal is to promote energy security by reducing dependence on foreign oil, the justification also involves externalities. But as noted, the strong majority of the benefits from such rules do not involve air pollution or energy security. They involve consumer savings, in the form of reduced costs from use. Should those savings be counted in the analysis of what to do? On one view, they should not be. There is a market for fuel economy and for energy efficiency. Consumers can trade off the relevant values as they see fit. They can certainly purchase cars with excellent fuel economy.
In 2011, the Department of Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency produced new fuel-economy labels with this goal in mind; the new labels explicitly draw attention to the economic benefits of greater fuel economy.46 An understanding of the problem of shrouded attributes also helps to identify a potential justification for regulatory standards in the domains of fuel economy and energy efficiency, involving a behavioral market failure. Of course, such standards reduce social costs by cutting air pollution and promoting energy security. To the extent that they reduce these costs, they do not involve paternalism in any way. But most of the benefits from recent rules are private; they come from consumer savings.47 Here is where paternalism becomes relevant. On standard economic grounds, it is not simple to identify a market failure that would justify taking account of such benefits. After all, people can buy fuel-efficient vehicles if they want.
If you are making yourself drunk or even sick, you might affect others. In the cases just described, it is possible that regulation can be justified on grounds that have nothing to do with paternalism. To see some of the complexities here, recall recent rules that require increases in fuel economy. We have seen that such rules produce substantial social benefits by reducing air pollution and by increasing energy security; producing these benefits does not involve paternalism. But as we have also seen, the strong majority of the benefits of such rules come from private fuel savings, and producing those benefits might reasonably be thought to involve paternalism. To get clear on the underlying issues, and to keep the focus on paternalism, let us put third-party effects entirely to one side. If we begin with this definition, the central objection to paternalistic interventions, elaborated most famously by Mill, is that people should be free to choose as they see fit.
Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices by Robert McNally
American energy revolution, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bretton Woods, collective bargaining, credit crunch, energy security, energy transition, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, index fund, Induced demand, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, joint-stock company, market clearing, market fundamentalism, moral hazard, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price discrimination, price stability, sovereign wealth fund, transfer pricing
After the tumultuous 1970s and early 1980s, during the long period of relatively stable oil prices from 1986 to early 2000s (with the exception of the 1990–1991 Gulf War), Washington reverted to aloofness and complacency with regard to the oil industry and energy security. In 1986, the Reagan administration decided to ease fuel economy standards for model years 1987 and 1988.23 During the 1990s the Clinton administration and Congress looked the other way when the auto industry and motorists exploited a loophole in fuel economy standards for gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles. SUVs and minivans are also exempt from a federal “gas-guzzler tax” enacted in 1978.24 Public and official concern about energy security abated during the 1990s. Despite a doubling in dependence on imported oil after 1985, from about 25 percent to over 50 percent, in 1996, a Republican Congress and Democratic White House agreed to sell off some of the strategic reserves in 1996 to plug holes in the federal budget.
Over the four preceding decades, the US and its allies had enjoyed stable oil prices and felt secure about supply security, though the 1967 and especially 1956 disruptions did cause a fright, particularly in Europe. But shifts that began after World War II and gathered force in the 1960s—soaring oil demand and replacement of the U.S. with the Middle East as key supply region—triggered a convulsion and reshaped the global oil market, shattering prior complacency about energy security and energy policy. Western governments and majors had ignored OPEC after it was created in 1960. “But now, in the middle 1970s, all that had changed,” Daniel Yergin wrote. “The international order had been turned upside down. OPEC’s members were courted, flattered, railed against, and denounced. There was good reason. Oil prices were at the heart of world commerce, and those who seemed to control oil prices were regarded as the new masters of the global economy.”37 Western shock and dismay was compounded by lack of unity between the U.S. and Europe, which struggled to formulate a common policy.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve became the centerpiece a comprehensive national energy law signed in December 1975 by Nixon’s successor President Ford to address the ongoing “energy crisis.” Called the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, the law also included a ban on crude oil and refined product exports, conservation standards for appliances, and vehicle fuel limits called Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations. While initially intended to promote energy security by lowering oil imports and save consumers money at the pump, in recent years the federal government has added reducing greenhouse gas emissions to CAFE’s objectives. Oil began pouring into underground salt caverns chiseled under the Texas and Louisiana coasts in July 1977, and the SPR came to life. Other IEA countries also established crude and in some cases petroleum product reserves. But persistent divisions between the allies limited the IEA’s effectiveness.
In Spite of the Gods: The Rise of Modern India by Edward Luce
affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Bretton Woods, call centre, centre right, clean water, colonial rule, crony capitalism, cuban missile crisis, demographic dividend, energy security, financial independence, friendly fire, Gini coefficient, Haight Ashbury, informal economy, job-hopping, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, megacity, new economy, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit motive, purchasing power parity, Silicon Valley, trade liberalization, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, urban planning, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y2K
But Manmohan’s judgment is very widely admired. So when he gives a strong opinion that you have not heard before, it is worth taking note. “The quest for energy security is second only in our scheme of things to our quest for food security,” said Manmohan, in his almost whispering voice. “India is dependent on imported energy, and what goes on in the world today, the growing instability of supplies, gives rise to new challenges. The producers must come to terms with the fact that instability is not something that is conducive to the interest of either the buyers or the sellers.… Energy security is of critical importance [to India].”28 To take a small liberty with Manmohan’s pronouncement, energy security is actually a bigger headache for India than is food security. In the last twenty-five years India has broken the back of its food supply difficulties and is likely to become a large food exporter in the years ahead.
In both cases, the charge is being led by state-owned energy companies and, contrary to the advice of free market purists, who argue that supplies can more efficiently be tied up in the energy futures market, both countries want to extract the oil or gas directly. China and India’s ever-restless quest for energy security involves striking deals with a number of rogue regimes around the world. Most important of all, it involves forging close ties to Iran. Journalists in Asia have dubbed the India-China race for energy security the “New Great Game,” a reference to the old Great Game, which was a race between imperial Britain and czarist Russia in the nineteenth century to gain sway over the vast tracts of central Asia that divided the Raj from Russia’s southern boundaries. The New Great Game is less romantic. But its outcome will have as much impact on the shape of world geopolitics as did the Victorian race between London and Moscow.
India now produces more than enough food to cater to the nutritional needs of its growing population, even though its system of food distribution to the poor leaves much to be desired. On energy, however, India’s internal shortfall is large and growing. At the moment India imports 70 percent of its oil needs, and that figure is expected to rise to 90 percent in the next two decades as the domestic economy expands. Likewise, if the dollars being thrown around in overseas acquisitions are any guide, energy security is also one of the most critical issues facing China. The energy situations facing India and China are strikingly similar. Both have large reserves of coal, which is mostly dirty and inefficient. Both also have oil but not of a sufficient quantity to give them much comfort. Both countries—particularly China—have built controversial dams to boost their hydroelectric capacity. But the political cost of building dams is high and rising.
Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths by Steven M. Gorelick
California gold rush, carbon footprint, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, income per capita, invention of the telephone, meta analysis, meta-analysis, North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, statistical model, Thomas Malthus
Finally, Chapter 5 applies some of the lessons learned from the examination of non-energy Earth resources to the analysis of global oil resources and explores important issues affecting our future reliance on oil. Notes and References 1. 2. 3. 4. Yergin, D. (1991). The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. New York: Free Press, Simon and Schuster. Darwin, C. (1859). The Origin of Species, reprinted in 1979 by Gramercy Books, Random House, New York: 461 pp. Greene, D. L. (2009). “Measuring Energy Security: Can the United States Achieve Oil Independence?” Energy Policy. ISSN 0301-4215, DOI: 10.1016/j. enpol.2009.01.041 (in press). Porter, E. D. (1995). “Are We Running Out of Oil?” American Petroleum Institute Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department, American Petroleum Institute, Discussion Paper #081. 14 End of the Oil Era 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20.
Oil Reserves Get a Big Boost: Chevron-Led Team Discovers Billions of Barrels in Gulf of Mexico’s Deep Water,” Wall Street Journal, December 6, 2006. www. chevron.com/news/press/Release/?id=2006-09-05 “Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers 2007,” www.eia.doe.gov/ emeu/perfpro/tab01.htm www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/perfpro/020607.pdf Pirog, R. (2007). The Role of National Oil Companies in the International Oil Market, Congressional Research Service Report, August 21, 2007. Greene, D. L. (2009). “Measuring Energy Security: Can the United States Achieve Oil Independence?” Energy Policy (in press: doi:10.1016/j. enpol.2009.01.041). Energy Information Administration reporting of Oil and Gas Journal value (January 2008); BP Statistical Review (2008); www.opec.org/home/basket.aspx The average price of OPEC oil in 2008 was $95 per barrel. This gave a total value of OPEC reserves of about $87 trillion. The gross world product in 2008 was $69 trillion (IMF estimate in purchasing power parity, ppp). www.imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/pdf/tables.pdf Reported here are data from the US Energy Information Administration.
“Global Petroleum Resources: A View to the Future,” Geotimes, November 2002. 1 metric ton (or tonne) of coal is equal to 2204.6 pounds, which is equivalent to 3.8 barrels of oil. 2008 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and 2006 World Energy Council Survey of Energy Resources, www.worldenergy.org Lower estimate from 2008 BP Statistical Review and the higher from EIA 2007 World Energy Outlook. 5 Beyond Panic High gasoline prices in 2008 served as a reminder of our vulnerability to limited domestic oil production and dependence on oil imports, especially from OPEC. The future of dependence on imports and, more generally, the oil-energy path requires public policy decisions about energy security, economic stability, and risks to the environment. These issues are discussed in this chapter. The US and other oil-importing nations must resolve the problems of energy dependence and environmental degradation due to oil consumption. Should global oil supply meet demand for the foreseeable future, we must ask: at what cost to our safety, economy, and environment? The Non-Renewable Resource Model Perhaps lessons from historical production of other globally traded nonrenewable Earth resources are applicable to oil.
Food and Fuel: Solutions for the Future by Andrew Heintzman, Evan Solomon, Eric Schlosser
agricultural Revolution, Berlin Wall, big-box store, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate social responsibility, David Brooks, deindustrialization, distributed generation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, flex fuel, full employment, half of the world's population has never made a phone call, hydrogen economy, land reform, microcredit, Negawatt, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment
Analytically, Lovins drew two different, and opposing, pictures of energy policy, one relying on centralized, large-scale, capital-intensive technologies to meet rapidly rising demand (the “hard path”), and the other, the “soft path,” emphasizing energy conservation2 as the primary focus, with mainly smaller-scale renewable energy supply options selected to be more environmentally and socially benign. We will discuss the content, the analytics, and some results of the soft path approach later in this chapter; for now, however, the key point is that Lovins (and subsequent soft path analysts) took both sides of the energy security vs. environment debate absolutely seriously. Environmentalists taking a soft path approach to energy policy accepted that decision makers must consider and plan for energy security, and that economics did matter. Moreover, they met head-on one of the main criticisms of their opposition to various megaprojects. Instead of merely pointing generally to more efficient technologies and renewable energy sources when challenged as to how, exactly, the demand for energy was going to be met, analysts doing soft path studies provided the comprehensive overview, including the hard numbers detailing energy supply-and-demand balances with alternative technologies, that was required for a serious response.
By 1906, Ford founded his own automobile company and that year, when Congress finally repealed the liquor tax, he announced that ethanol was the fuel of the future. His famous Model T was the first flex-fuel car, designed to run on a mixture of gasoline and ethanol, very much like the cars coming off the Ford plant in Dearborn today. A century later, Henry Ford’s ethanol revolution is actually happening. The record-high, volatile oil prices, combined with concerns over energy security and climate change, have made ethanol once again a popular fuel. Politicians of all stripes, including President Barack Obama, are open supporters of the idea that America can grow its energy. After all, ethanol means votes. In Iowa alone — a key state in every U.S. presidential primary season — over 50,000 jobs are dependent on the biofuel business. Governments around the world have followed suit, aggressively setting targets for increasing the percentage of ethanol mixtures in automotive fuel.
When we wrote that the need to develop a sustainable energy model was urgent, we were seen by some as alarmists. Nonetheless, many inside the energy industry knew that we were at the end of the age of abundance and at the beginning of a much more volatile age of energy scarcity. And then, just as we launched the book, 50 million North Americans were left in the darkness during the blackout of 2003. Suddenly energy security and supply became popular issues. Not long after, increasing media pressure brought to light the cascading problems of global climate change. We also knew that if there was an energy crisis there might well be a food crisis as well. After all, everyone in the energy sector knew that food and fuel are joined at the hip, from the price of artificial, fossil fuel–based fertilizers to the cost of gasoline needed to drive tractors.
Interventions by Noam Chomsky
Albert Einstein, Ayatollah Khomeini, cuban missile crisis, energy security, facts on the ground, failed state, Monroe Doctrine, nuremberg principles, old-boy network, Ralph Nader, Thorstein Veblen, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, éminence grise
It’s not unlikely that an independent bloc of this kind might follow Iran’s lead in developing major energy projects jointly with China and India. Iran may give up on western Europe, assuming that it will be unwilling to act independently of the United States. China, however, can’t be intimidated. That’s why the United States is so frightened by China. China is already establishing relations with Iran—and even with Saudi Arabia, both military and economic. There is an Asian energy security grid, based on China and Russia, but probably bringing in India, Korea, and others. If Iran moves in that direction, it can become the lynchpin of that power grid. Such developments, including a sovereign Iraq and possibly even major Saudi energy resources, would be the ultimate nightmare for Washington. Also, the labor movement is re-establishing itself in Iraq, a very important development.
By an accident of geography, the world’s major oil resources are in largely Shiite areas of the Middle East: southern Iraq, adjacent regions of Saudi Arabia and Iran, with some of the major reserves of natural gas as well. Washington’s worst nightmare would be a loose Shiite alliance controlling most of the world’s oil and independent of the United States. Such a bloc, if it emerges, might even join the Asian Energy Security Grid and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), based in China. Iran, which already had observer status, is to be admitted as a member of the SCO. The Hong Kong South China Morning Post reported in June 2006 that “Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stole the limelight at the annual meeting of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) by calling on the group to unite against other countries as his nation faces criticism over its nuclear programme.”
., 148, 175–176 See also Taliban African American op-ed writers, xx Agha, Hussein, 30 Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud, 208, 210 Ahmed, Samina, 39 airliner bombings, 68 Al-Aqsa Intifada, 31 Allende, Salvador, 143, 198 al-Qaeda alleged Saddam Hussein involvement, 36–37 and 9/11, 176 ambassadors, 89–92, 126 American Association for the Advancement of Science, 153 anarchism, 217 Annan, Kofi, 113 anthrax terrorism, 37 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, 126 “anti-globalization” movement misnamed, 158 antilabor laws Iraq, 79, 164 antiscience, 151–154 antiwar movement, 20–21 apartheid, 30 Arab countries opinion of U.S., 1–3 Arafat, Yasser, 165–166 Arctic ice sheet melting, 153 Argentina, 171, 199 Arkhipov, Vasily, 21 arms control, 125–128 arms inspections, 50 arms race revival, 87–88 arms sales, 15, 28–29, 137 Army Corps of Engineers Bush II funding cuts, 148 Aronson, Geoffrey, 82 Asia foreign economic relations, 169–174 Asian Energy Security Grid, 208 assassinations Oscar Romero, 122 asylum requests, 68 Avnery, Uri, 33–34, 191 Ayalon, Ami, 38 baby boomers and Social Security, 129–130 Bachelet, Michelle, 198 Bacon, David, 79 Badr Brigade, 163 Bagdikian, Ben, xiii Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group, 202–203, 205 bankruptcy resulting from medical bills, 131 banks and banking Iraq, 78 Barnett, Corelli, 209 Bass, Gary J., 57 Bassiouni, Cherif, 107 Bechtel Corporation, 27, 53 Benjamin, Daniel, 15 Benvenisti, Meron, 82 Bergen, Peter, 22, 140 biblical prophets as dissident intellectuals, 214 Biden, Joseph, 139 Bin Laden, Osama, 2, 5, 20, 37, 38, 144 finances tracked, 87 biological warfare, 42 bioweapons ban scorned by U.S., 126 Blair, Bruce, 127–128 Blair, Tony and Saddam Hussein, 107 Iraqi public opinion, 43 Bolivia, 171, 199 and Venezuela, 198 Bolton, John, 126 bombings, 137 Afghanistan, 35, 38–39, 175, 176 Cambodia, 203–204 Cuban airliner, 68 Iraq, 74, 117, 134-135 London, 137, 140, 148 Madrid, 73 Palestinian, 31 Serbia, 175, 176, 179 “suicide bombings,” 31, 35 Borón, Atilio, 194 Bosch, Orlando, 68 boundaries Israel-Palestine, 29, 30, 33, 63 Boyce, Michael, 38 Brazil, 199, 200 Bremer, Paul, 44, 75 Brinkley, Joel, 158 Britain.
Oil: Money, Politics, and Power in the 21st Century by Tom Bower
Ayatollah Khomeini, banking crisis, bonus culture, corporate governance, credit crunch, energy security, Exxon Valdez, falling living standards, fear of failure, forensic accounting, index fund, interest rate swap, kremlinology, LNG terminal, Long Term Capital Management, margin call, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, new economy, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, passive investing, peak oil, Piper Alpha, price mechanism, price stability, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, short selling, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, transaction costs, transfer pricing, zero-sum game, éminence grise
At every level, from the Kremlin down to the oilfields’ managers in Siberia, insiders snatched a share, sometimes using violence, tipping the fledgling democracy beyond Yeltsin’s control. The chaos was broadly welcomed in Washington as providing an opportunity to replace Russia’s historic control over the estimated 200 billion barrels of oil and gas around the Caspian Sea. Baku had become a boom town filled with Tex-Mex food, nightclubs and Texans smelling big money. “This is about America’s energy security,” announced Bill Richardson, the energy secretary. “It’s also about preventing strategic inroads by those who don’t share our values.” Ignoring Russia’s antagonism and the region’s recurring wars over control of the Caspian, Richardson added, “We’re trying to move these newly independent countries towards the West. We would like to see them reliant on Western political and commercial interests rather than going another way.”
Every year since 1986 domestic production had fallen by between 2.5 percent and 6.5 percent, and was now below seven million barrels a day. The domestic industry could have been expanded to produce nine million barrels a day, but it felt battered, especially by Senator Barbara Boxer of California’s conservation campaign. The crisis gave the oil companies a chance to use the extra profits to invest. Instead, their profits were attacked. “We are now relying on military force rather than energy policy for our energy security,” observed Senator Frank Murkowski of Alaska, unsuccessfully seeking more exploration in his state. “Americans will find it unacceptable to put American lives at risk because we have not made the hard choices to formulate a policy.” In the aftermath of Iraq’s defeat, the industry’s plight worsened. Most traders had expected prices to rise. Over 600 wells were blazing in Kuwait, whose oilfields were strewn with booby traps, unexploded bombs, land mines and huge lakes of crude oil.
Considering the company’s potential 10 years earlier, shareholders had lost confidence in Hearne. Like Lasmo, another British oil company, Enterprise had failed to use its North Sea fields to expand and to gain a place among the major players. Together, Lasmo and Enterprise symbolized Britain’s squandered opportunity. Enterprise had been created in 1983 by a Conservative government ideologically opposed to the state producing oil and gas, and keen, regardless of Britain’s long-term energy security, to immediately receive a large amount of cash. Convinced that there would always be a surplus of oil supplied by BP and Shell, Margaret Thatcher privatized the North Sea’s reserves in 1986, just as prices crashed. This was followed in July 1988 by an explosion on the Piper Alpha platform, killing 167 workers. By then, civil servants had fled from the shrinking Department of Energy. Floundering without any considered policy, over the following years the government repeatedly altered the tax rates, replaced ministers of energy and changed policies.
Earth Wars: The Battle for Global Resources by Geoff Hiscock
Admiral Zheng, Asian financial crisis, Bakken shale, Bernie Madoff, BRICs, butterfly effect, clean water, cleantech, corporate governance, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, energy security, energy transition, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, flex fuel, global rebalancing, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, Long Term Capital Management, Malacca Straits, Masdar, mass immigration, megacity, Menlo Park, Mohammed Bouazizi, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Panamax, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, trade route, uranium enrichment, urban decay, working-age population, Yom Kippur War
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India also are big Asian buyers of Saudi crude. In contrast, Saudi Arabia is only the third largest supplier to the world’s No. 2 energy consumer, the United States, behind U.S. regional neighbours Canada and Mexico (see Exhibit 5.2). Exhibit 5.2 World’s biggest importers of crude oil (in millions of tonnes) Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics Oct 2011 In its quest for energy security, China has made some big investments overseas, primarily through its three main national oil companies—China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec), and China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC). Although they are state-owned (with listed arms in Hong Kong, New York, and Shanghai), they are not necessarily “state-run,” in the view of the International Energy Agency.
Brazil has a thriving sugarcane-based ethanol industry to fuel its automobiles, with at least 12 global makers—VW, Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault, Peugeot, Citroen, Fiat, and Kia—offering flex-fuel models for the Brazilian market that are capable of running on any blend of gasoline and ethanol. In the United States, pioneering automaker Henry Ford was an early advocate of biofuel, with some of his Model T Fords capable of running on ethanol as well as petrol or kerosene. Under U.S. energy security legislation, by 2022 at least 36 billion gallons (136 billion litres) of fuel used in the United States must come from renewable sources. Although the United States produces more ethanol than Brazil, it mainly uses corn as its feedstock rather than sugarcane. As more people question whether producing biofuel from the cornfields of Iowa and Nebraska is the best use of fertile croplands, some companies are starting to look beyond traditional feedstocks.
The listed company Kazmunaigas Exploration Production (KMGEP), which is held 59 percent by Kazmunaigas and 11 percent by China Investment Corp., produces about 500,000 barrels a day from its fields in Kazakhstan, including Uzenmunaigas, Embamunaigas, and its stakes in the Kazgermunai joint venture, the CCEL venture with China’s Citic, and PetroKazakhstan. The International Energy Agency said in its most recent world energy outlook that the Caspian Sea region has the potential to make a “significant contribution to ensuring energy security in the rest of the world, by increasing the diversity of oil and gas supplies.” But potential barriers to developing the Caspian’s oil and gas reserves include “the complexities of financing and construction transportation infrastructure passing through several countries, the investment climate and uncertainty over export demand.”12 In the IEA’s New Policies scenario, Caspian oil production jumps from 2.9 million barrels a day in 2009 to a peak of around 5.4 million barrels between 2025 and 2030, before falling back to 5.2 million barrels by 2035.
Cities Under Siege: The New Military Urbanism by Stephen Graham
airport security, anti-communist, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, call centre, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, creative destruction, credit crunch, DARPA: Urban Challenge, defense in depth, deindustrialization, digital map, edge city, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, Food sovereignty, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, Google Earth, illegal immigration, income inequality, knowledge economy, late capitalism, loose coupling, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, McMansion, megacity, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, one-state solution, pattern recognition, peak oil, planetary scale, private military company, Project for a New American Century, RAND corporation, RFID, Richard Florida, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, smart transportation, surplus humans, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, Washington Consensus, white flight, white picket fence
As the manager of Future Combat himself remarked, ‘We use many of the same sorts of technology for autonomous navigation as the DARPA vehicles’.133 OIL SHOCKWAVE Military force and energy security are inseparable twins.134 Another aspect of the SUV, and of the broader culture of automobility, that must be examined in connection with the new urban militarism relates to the combination of rapidly rising oil demand and rapidly diminishing oil supply. Obviously, this presents major challenges for Western military doctrine. In light of the growing reliance on volatile supplies from the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, how can Western and US military forces support energy security – given the increasing military and economic strength of major competitors like China and India, which are struggling to meet their own exploding oil demand?
‘It is this centering of the life of the population rather than the safety of the sovereign or the security of territory’, writes David Campbell, ‘that is the hallmark of biopolitical power and that distinguishes it from sovereign power’.26 In oil wars, as in many other spheres of contemporary state activity, state violence – organized to defend the oil-dependent life of Western populations – operates in legal grey zones. In the name of this Western manner of life, norms of state sovereignty are often suspended, with the result that ‘the geopolitical pursuit of energy security is likely to produce new and intensive forms of insecurity for those in the new resource zones’.27 Oil wars, and the resultant deaths, should thus be understood in terms of Agamben’s notion of ‘bare life’ – life that can be extinguished with sovereign impunity. Urban automobile cultures tend to materialize and territorialize the separation between the domestic city, situated within the home space of the Western nation, and the borderlands, cursed with the ongoing resource wars which surround oil exploitation.
As a result, he predicts, the world will see recurring US military interventions, characterized by ‘the constant installation and replacement of client regimes, systemic corruption and repression, and the continued impoverishment of the great majority of those who have the misfortune to inhabit such energy-rich regions’. There is little doubt that the US military is putting much thought into the military and geopolitical imperatives associated with rapidly growing crises in energy security. Ironically, this is driven in part by the need to secure oil to supply its own stupendous appetite for oil: the US military itself consumed 134 million barrels of oil in 2005, as much as the entire population of Sweden. ‘Every day’, notes Klare, ‘the average G.I. in Iraq uses approximately 27 gallons of petroleum-based fuels’.147 In 2000 the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington argued that ‘the United States, as the world’s only superpower, must accept its special responsibilities for preserving access to the worldwide energy supply’.148 Between 2001 and 2009, through the US Central Command, or CENTCOM, the Bush administration exploited the War on Terror discourse to push highly controversial plans to build a formidable series of bases in Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan (Figure 9.12).
algorithmic trading, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, collateralized debt obligation, computer age, corporate raider, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crony capitalism, currency peg, diversification, Doha Development Round, energy security, financial deregulation, financial innovation, fixed income, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Gilder, housing crisis, Hyman Minsky, imperial preference, income inequality, index arbitrage, index fund, interest rate derivative, interest rate swap, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, large denomination, Long Term Capital Management, market bubble, Martin Wolf, Menlo Park, mobile money, money market fund, Monroe Doctrine, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Myron Scholes, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old-boy network, peak oil, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, profit maximization, Renaissance Technologies, reserve currency, risk tolerance, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Satyajit Das, shareholder value, short selling, sovereign wealth fund, The Chicago School, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, trade route
In a nutshell, it is this total lack of any ‘alternative scenario thinking’ that makes this unavoidable event so alarming.”24 Flynt Leverett, a former aide on Bush’s National Security Council who left for the New America Foundation, wrote in 2006 that “U.S. foreign policy is ill-suited to cope with the challenges to American leadership flowing from the new petropolitics. Current policy does not take energy security seriously as a foreign policy issue or prioritize energy security in relation to other goals.”25 In late 2007, two major oil company chief executives, James Mulva of ConocoPhillips and Clarence Cazalot of Marathon Oil, endorsed the need for a decisive federal energy strategy. Mulva told BusinessWeek editors that “we don’t have a national energy policy,” while rival nations are amassing power. “The Chinese have a very coordinated strategy that allows them to support economic growth.”26 In a demonstration of how the industry’s planning sense far exceeds that of the Bush White House, Mulva emphasized four priorities: developing new energy sources, stepped-up federal investment in energy technology, conservation, and federal regulation of carbon emissions.
For proponents, the last break point and rebalancing came in the 1970s, when prices surged enough that conservation and attention to new energy sources mobilized to cut oil demand, if only for a while. 27 The hints of another watershed snowballed between 2005 and 2007—inadequate world oil and gas reserves; clearly insufficient new discoveries; stepped-up belief in peak oil; the unprecedented new demand from Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America; and the increasing salience of energy-security issues and even resource wars. The tumultuous 1970s were the last decade to experience an economic crisis alongside an energy break point, a precedent few populations would want to repeat. The politics of our current double dislocation is treated in chapter 6, albeit without much conviction that it can still be fixed. The U.S. political system is not broken—weak presidents can plummet in the polls, voters can still mobilize, Congress can change hands—but both political parties have calcified in terms of interest-group domination and limited strategic capacity.
But even in those states, nonenergy industries vastly outweigh these activities. Absent an energy supply crisis, Democratic election strategies and blueprints for national governance will continue to emphasize energy consumers and environmental constituencies. On the Web site HillaryClinton.com, the one-and-a-half-page outline of her popular energy program, “Powering America’s Future: New Energy, New Jobs,” never uses the word “security” or the phrase “energy security.” By contrast, the word “green” is used ten times. Proposals include a “green building industry,” $20 billion in “green vehicle bonds,” promised new “green collar jobs,” and a new “Connie Mae” agency to help low- and middle-income families “to buy green homes and invest in green home improvements.”27 Moreover, going green isn’t just an energy nuance; it’s a potential opportunity for national uplift and economic mobilization (including five million jobs) on the heroic scale of World War II.
Bernie Madoff, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, cleantech, collateralized debt obligation, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Menlo Park, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment, Whole Earth Catalog
In the next chapter, I will walk you through the physics and the terminology so that you can see why America’s discussions about “energy” are so misguided. Power is what we want. And lots of it. CHAPTER 3 Watt’s the Big Deal? (Power Tripping 102) ENERGY GETS THE HEADLINES and the attention. It’s the buzzword that pundits and politicos count on to pack a punch. Thus, we’ve been barraged by the ever-present “energy crisis” as well as other combinations: energy security, energy scarcity, energy management, energy policy, and dozens more. In the consumer world, we have energy bars, energy drinks, and, for consumer electronics, Energy Star. My antique copy of the Shorter Oxford English Dictionary (printed in 1936) contains half a dozen definitions for “energy.” Meanwhile, its definitions for “power” cover nearly half a page. The word “power” now gets used in numerous contexts—political power, electrical power, brain power, black power, Chicano power, star power, flower power, power trip, power walking, power lunch, and computing power, to name just a few.
For instance, if a utility has reliable data showing that it is providing enough voltage to its most-distant customers on a given section of the grid, it can reduce the voltage on its generators and thereby reap energy savings of as much as 4 percent.23 In July 2009, the consulting firm McKinsey & Company released a report that predicted that if the United States adopted aggressive efficiency policies it could reduce primary energy consumption by about 20 percent when compared to a “business as usual” scenario.24 The consulting firm determined that there are big gains to be had from efficiency upgrades in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The report concludes that, “in the nation’s pursuit of energy affordability, climate change mitigation, and energy security, energy efficiency stands out as perhaps the single most promising resource.”25 While that may be true, the McKinsey report contains an enormous caveat, a warning that efficiency is not a panacea, not easily funded, and not easily measured or verified:By their nature, energy efficiency measures typically require a substantial upfront investment in exchange for savings that accrue over the lifetime of the deployed measures.
In Germany and Denmark, opposition to CCS projects has helped stop plans by two major electricity producers to bury captured carbon dioxide in saline aquifers deep below the surface of the Earth.59 Despite the problems, the coal industry continues to perpetuate the myth that CCS is viable. In September 2009, Vic Svec, a senior vice president at St. Louis–based Peabody Energy, the world’s largest private-sector coal company, told the New York Times that “coal with carbon capture and storage is the low cost, low carbon solution and has fantastic implications for the nation’s energy security.”60 The myth that the United States can (or will) substantially cut its carbon dioxide emissions is closely related to the belief that placing a tax on carbon will ignite a revolution in alternative-energy technologies. And that belief leads to the next myth-busting opportunity: Any scheme to tax carbon is doomed to failure. The better strategy: taxing neurotoxins. CHAPTER 16 Taxing Carbon Dioxide Will Work FORGET IT.
1960s counterculture, affirmative action, airline deregulation, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, capital controls, centre right, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, desegregation, energy security, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, feminist movement, financial deregulation, floating exchange rates, full employment, Gunnar Myrdal, income inequality, income per capita, intermodal, invisible hand, knowledge worker, laissez-faire capitalism, liberal capitalism, Long Term Capital Management, manufacturing employment, market bubble, Martin Wolf, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, post-industrial society, post-oil, price mechanism, price stability, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, reserve currency, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, strikebreaker, trade liberalization, union organizing, urban planning, urban renewal, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, working poor, Yom Kippur War
Not only did the energy story take a backseat to the political story, which was a lot more appealing and comprehensible to reporters, but the public could wonder about the soundness of an energy plan which was put together by men who were then fired.40 Nevertheless, the Congress embraced the energy program, approving the Energy Security Corporation in June 1980. Containing something for everyone—incentives for oil shale, alcohol fuels, geothermal energy, solar, etc.—the corporation would guarantee loans, support prices, buy fuel, and even own production facilities. Funded up to $88 billion by a windfall profits tax, it seemed both self-financing and guaranteed to provide an elusive energy security. By 1985, the United States was 25 percent more energy efficient and 32 percent more oil efficient than it had been in 1973. Although the promise of synthetic fuels was not realized, increased efficiency, new supplies from Alaska, the North Sea, and the Soviet Union, as well as a recession in the early 1980S, produced an oil glut by the mid-1980s.41 None of this helped Jimmy Carter in 1979.
Carter’s six-point action plan, offered in the final third of his speech, promised to limit oil imports to 1977 levels, 8.7 million barrels, which he could do alone on the basis of the 1975 energy legislation. But the long-term goal was to cut American oil imports in half, to 4.5 million barrels a day by 1990. Congress was already considering legislation supporting alternative energy technologies. Now Carter asked Congress to create an Energy Security Corporation to replace 2.5 million barrels of imported oil through the development of alternative energy sources. The funds would come from the windfall profits tax. Most of the estimated $17-billion revenue from the windfall profits tax of 1979 would be invested by the new energy corporation. The 1977 plan had tried to force energy conservation through taxation and tax incentives. The proposed windfall tax of 1977 would have returned all of the money to consumers to restore their purchasing power.
-Soviet Dodd, Christopher Dole, Robert Douglas, Paul Dowd, Douglas Drudge, Matt Dukakis, Michael Dunlop, John Du Pont Durbin, Richard Durkin, John Eagleton, Thomas Eckes, Alfred Economic Opportunity Act Economic Planning Act Economic Policy Board Economic Revitalization Board Eisenhower, Dwight D. Eisner, Robert Eizenstat, Stuart Emergency Committee for American Trade (ECAT) Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act Emminger, Otmar Energy Independence Authority Act Energy Policy and Conservation Act Energy Security Corporation environmental movement Equal Rights Amendment Ervin, Sam European Community (EC) European Economic Community (EEC) European Payments Union exchange rates, international Export-Import Bank Fahd, of Saudi Arabia Faisal, king of Saudi Arabia Falk, Richard Fallows, James families, U.S.: legislation supporting relative wealth of Family Assistance Plan federal budget, U.S.
affirmative action, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, carbon footprint, centre right, collective bargaining, energy security, full employment, Gunnar Myrdal, illegal immigration, immigration reform, low skilled workers, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, Naomi Klein, North Sea oil, open economy, postnationalism / post nation state, Potemkin village, Ronald Reagan, World Values Survey
To be sure, serious substantive disagreements affected Polish-German relations. In 2005, Germany and Russia decided to route a major gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, therefore outside of Polish control. The Polish defense minister compared the decision to the secret agreement between Hitler and Stalin to carve up Poland in 1939. At subsequent EU summits, the Polish leadership emphasized the urgency of reaching a common energy security treaty for all EU states, which was made more difficult by Russia reaching special energy deals with Germany, Italy, France, and the Netherlands. A second issue in German-Polish relations concerned recognition of minorities in each country. Adam Krzemiński, longtime editor of a leading Polish weekly, Polityka, asked: “Must mass immigration involve giving minority status to the new ethnic groups in the EU member states?
In his turn, the Polish president warned that Poland could counter German lawsuits with its own multibillion-Euro claims for destruction suffered under the wartime Nazi occupation of Poland. He added how “obvious anti-Polish sentiment that is often racist”100—that term again—had increased in Germany. The 2006 Weimar summit eased frictions in Polish-German relations. The main topic between President Kaczyński, Chancellor Merkel, and President Chirac was the energy security of Europe. Kaczyński argued that the fact that this subject was seen not simply as an economic but also a political matter was a success for Poland. The three leaders expressed hope that negotiations with Russia on energy issues and, more broadly, on a new EURussia partnership and cooperation agreement, would begin soon. This represented a reversal of Poland’s position at the EU’s 2006 Helsinki summit, when it had vetoed the start of the partnership negotiations because of Russia’s embargo on Polish meat and vegetable products.
See European Court of Justice economy: budget deficits and, 50–51; during Cold War, 34–35; democracy and, 35–36; eastern Europe, 51, 159; of Poland, 40, 51, 52, 108; of Spain, 40 Eco, Umberto, 58, 164 ECRI. See European Commission against Racism and Intolerance ECSC. See European Coal and Steel Community ECU. See European Currency Unit EEC. See European Economic Community Elementary Particles (Houellebecq), 216, 218–19 11-M, 152 Élysée Treaty, 21 . The Emigrants (Mrozek), 192–93 emigration, 192–93, 194 ENAR. See European Network Against Racism energy security, 109–10, 111 Englishness, 157 ENP. See European Neighborhood Policy entitativity, 59 Equalities Review report, 158–59 ESM. See European Social Model Estonia: conservative government in, 105; economy of, 51; minority discrimination in, 126 ethnic cleansing, 4 ethnocentric norms, 119 EU. See European Union EU commandments, 4 EU constitution: drafting of, 44, 45–46; French referendum (2005), 2; religion in, 69; resistance to, 45, 49.
The new village green: living light, living local, living large by Stephen Morris
back-to-the-land, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, cleantech, collective bargaining, Columbine, Community Supported Agriculture, computer age, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, discovery of penicillin, distributed generation, energy security, energy transition, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, Firefox, index card, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Kevin Kelly, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, McMansion, Menlo Park, Negawatt, off grid, peak oil, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review
Distributed generation is where electricity is fed into power lines by small, scattered power plants such as wind mills, solar electric arrays on roof tops, small-scale hydro power, methane captured at farms or landﬁlls, or fossil fuel powered turbines. The energy from these decentralized power sources tends to be used on-site by whoever is producing it, with the excess going out onto the grid for everyone else. Energy security analysts think distributed generation is preferable because reducing the demand on a single, central power plant makes widespread power interruptions less likely. Another way to increase power plant efﬁciency is by way of co-generation (cogen) also known as combined heat and power (CHP). Co-generation means pro44 chapter 2 : Silent Spring ducing useful energy for more than one use from the same fuel source.
When applied to a wide variety of renewable energy technologies, this strategy is known as Community Supported Energy (CSE) or sometimes Community Based Energy Development (C-BED). Regardless of the name you use, these projects are somewhat similar to Community Supported Agriculture. The main difference, however, is that instead of investing in potatoes, carrots, or cucumbers, with CSE, local residents invest in energy projects that provide greater energy security and a wide variety of other beneﬁts. Many Advantages A cooperative or community owned energy project offers many advantages. It stimulates the local economy by creating new jobs and new business opportunities for the community while simultaneously expanding the tax base and generating new income for local residents. A locally owned energy project also generates support from the community by getting people directly involved in the project from the very beginning. 132 chapter 6 : Small is Beautiful Another advantage of community energy projects is that they can be owned cooperatively or collectively through a variety of legal mechanisms.
The main point is to identify the project as belonging to the community, which may avoid (or at least minimize) the usual conﬂicts between local residents and developers, whose large-scale, commercial proposals are often viewed as primarily beneﬁting absentee owners. Local ownership is the key ingredient that transforms what would otherwise be just another corporate energy project into an engine for local economic development and greater energy security. Community Supported Energy projects offer yet another advantage; they retain a greater amount of income in the local area and increase the economic beneﬁts substantially over projects owned by out-of-area developers. This fact was highlighted by a study conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the Governmental Accountability Ofﬁce. NREL compared the effect of a large corporate wind farm owned out of area with a similar project owned locally.
What's Next?: Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy by David Hale, Lyric Hughes Hale
affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, Bretton Woods, capital controls, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, debt deflation, declining real wages, deindustrialization, diversification, energy security, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global village, high net worth, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, index fund, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Just-in-time delivery, Kenneth Rogoff, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, Long Term Capital Management, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage tax deduction, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, passive investing, payday loans, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, price stability, private sector deleveraging, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, regulatory arbitrage, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Thaler, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, technology bubble, The Great Moderation, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Tobin tax, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, Washington Consensus, Westphalian system, women in the workforce, yield curve
Climate Negotiations and the Move to a Lower-Carbon Energy Mix With peak oil concerns alleviated until at least 2020 (subject to the quadrupling of Iraqi oil production, and therefore to peace in the Iraqi Shiite region), the other long-term consideration for the global supply-demand balance is about the implications of the transition to a low-carbon energy economy. For a brief period, considerations of energy security, peak oil, and climate security converged to make the transition to a new energy mix appear inevitable. As we have seen when assessing peak oil realities, 2009 spelled the end of this convergence, depriving climate negotiators of the broad-based consensus that this convergence could have fostered. Oil producers, notably Saudi Arabia, are calling attention to the slightly schizophrenic US and European attitudes toward the oil industry.
Therefore, it is likely that with British and Dutch gas production continuing to decline, more gas will have to be procured from the global LNG market and/or from Russia and Algeria. LNG sources include Qatar and Trinidad as well as Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, and some newcomers. In addition, one interesting question will be whether the United States is ready to develop a large-scale LNG export capacity, which would be at odds with its subjective definition of energy security as “energy independence.” Russian gas is now very expensive compared to spot prices as a result of the oil-product indexation clauses in take-or-pay Russian contracts. European companies failed to import as much Russian gas as was called for under these contracts. It was all the more intriguing, therefore, to see the Paris-based European electric utility EDF join the South Stream consortium that was put in place by Gazprom and commit to large volumes of Russian gas imports.
From a practical political perspective these differences deepened with the electoral losses suffered by the Obama administration in the 2010 mid-term elections. The stance of the G-77 developing countries, which includes China, has not changed. They continue to state, with justification, that their key priority is economic development and poverty eradication. A key driver in developing countries is an effort to increase energy efficiency in light of likely future increases in real energy prices and concerns about energy security. For example, China’s announced aim to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP is largely motivated by a desire to increase the efficiency with which its economy uses energy. Of course, this action has the secondary benefit of reducing the growth in greenhouse gas emissions, but it falls far short of a policy that would lead to a reduction in emissions. Although under the Copenhagen Accord China has recognized the need to keep global warming to two degrees Celsius, the agreement is not binding and China’s obligation under it is only voluntary.
Zero-Sum Future: American Power in an Age of Anxiety by Gideon Rachman
Asian financial crisis, bank run, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bonfire of the Vanities, borderless world, Bretton Woods, BRICs, capital controls, centre right, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, colonial rule, currency manipulation / currency intervention, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, global reserve currency, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, illegal immigration, income inequality, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, laissez-faire capitalism, Live Aid, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, offshore financial centre, open borders, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, pension reform, Plutocrats, plutocrats, popular capitalism, price stability, RAND corporation, reserve currency, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Sinatra Doctrine, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, The Myth of the Rational Market, Thomas Malthus, trickle-down economics, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent, zero-sum game
The motivations for America’s invasion of Iraq remain controversial, but at least one well-informed observer, Alan Greenspan, believed that the Iraq War was “largely about oil.”7 Even if that is a false charge, no American government would deny that the Persian Gulf is an area of crucial strategic importance, protected by a huge deployment of U.S. military power. And in this case, “strategic importance” is essentially shorthand for the fact that the Gulf states are home to two-thirds of the world’s known oil reserves. The biggest foreign policy dilemma of the European Union also revolves around energy and the Union’s dangerous reliance on Russian gas. It is not just “energy security” that is exercising the world’s political leaders. “Food security” is also back on the agenda. The world’s population is rising, the emerging middle classes of Asia are eating better, and that is forcing up the price of food. In 2007, the year before the financial crisis hit, the world price of basic foodstuffs rose by 50 percent.8 Several countries were shaken by riots over rising food prices, including Mexico, Indonesia, and China.
When President Obama attempted to stage a last-minute meeting at the Copenhagen summit with the Indians, he was told that the Indian prime minister had already flown home—only to discover that Manmohan Singh was, in fact, quietly meeting China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao.19 On nuclear proliferation, the need for binding UN sanctions on Iran meant that the U.S. government felt that it was crucial to cultivate cooperation with the Russians and the Chinese. When it came to energy security, there is no getting around the fact that America’s biggest suppliers of oil are authoritarian states, including Venezuela. Global economic imbalances could not be tackled cooperatively without close coordination with China. One of the biggest divisions on economic management was between countries that were amassing large current-account surpluses and others that were running big deficits—but this too did not divide the world neatly into democracies and autocracies.
I was in London when Tony Blair won his first electoral victory in May 1997, swept along by a campaign anthem that seemed to capture the spirit of the age: “Things can only get better.” It doesn’t feel that way now. My friend Charles Grant, the head of one of Britain’s leading think-tanks, recalls that when he launched his Centre for European Reform in 1995, “the big issues were whether Britain should join the euro and how fast Poland should join the European Union. … Most of the problems that worry us now—climate change, energy security, how to handle a more assertive Russia, the rise of China and terrorism—were scarcely on the agenda then.”1 In Washington, my contemporary Andrew Sullivan seems to feel the same way: “It feels like the late 1970s,” he wrote at the end of 2009, “but with no cheerful Ronald Reagan waiting in the wings. … I’ve never experienced such widespread gloom in the 25 years I’ve lived here.”2 For some Americans the Age of Optimism ended on 9/11.
Admiral Zheng, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, Bob Geldof, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, credit crunch, Dava Sobel, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, discovery of the americas, Doha Development Round, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global reserve currency, global supply chain, illegal immigration, income per capita, invention of gunpowder, James Watt: steam engine, joint-stock company, Kenneth Rogoff, land reform, land tenure, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, Naomi Klein, new economy, New Urbanism, one-China policy, open economy, Pearl River Delta, pension reform, price stability, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, special economic zone, spinning jenny, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, the scientific method, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Westphalian system, Xiaogang Anhui farmers, zero-sum game
The environmental impact of energy use in China is particularly adverse because its dependence on coal - of a particularly dirty kind - is unusually high (60 per cent compared with 23 per cent in the US and 5 per cent in France) and carbon emissions from coal are proportionately much greater than from oil and gas.79 Although the Chinese leadership has resisted the idea that the country should be subject to internationally agreed emission targets, it has accepted the scientific argument concerning global warming and, in both speeches and the growing volume of new environmental regulations, is displaying a heightened awareness of the problem.80 In fact on paper China already has some of the most advanced laws in the world on renewable energy, clean production, environmental impact assessment and pollution control, though these still remain widely ignored in practice.81 The government continues to resist the idea that environmental considerations should detract from the priority of rapid economic growth, but there is, nonetheless, widespread recognition of their urgency at the highest levels of the Chinese leadership.82 The need for China to embrace a green development strategy, rather than relying on the old intensive model, has been powerfully argued by the influential Chinese economist Hu Angang.83 Figure 15. CO2 emissions compared. Figure 16. Growing concern over environmental problems. China’s position on climate change is evolving rapidly. The two targets it has adopted as part of its 2007 energy security strategy will have a significant impact on reducing the growth in emissions - namely, decreasing the energy intensity of the Chinese economy by 20 per cent by 2010 and increasing the use of renewables from 5 per cent to 20 per cent of energy production by 2020. It is already the world’s largest user of alternative energies, including wind power.84 It is making huge investments in a wide range of clean-technology innovations, especially in wind, solar and hydrogen.
., Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005) Yu Yongding, ‘China’s Macroeconomic Development, Exchange Rate Policy and Global Imbalances’, unpublished paper, Asahi Shimbun Symposium, October 2005 ——‘China’s Rise, Twin Surplus and the Change of China’s Development Strategy’, unpublished paper, Namura Tokyo Club Conference, Kyoto, 21 November 2005 ——‘China’s Structural Adjustment’, unpublished paper, Seoul Conference, 2005 ——‘The Interactions Between China and the World Economy’, unpublished paper, Nikkei Simbon Symposium, 5 April 2005 ——‘Opinions on Structure Reform and Exchange Rate Regimes Against the Backdrop of the Asian Financial Crisis’, unpublished paper, Japanese Ministry of Finance, 2000 Zakaria, Fareed, The Post-American World (London: Allen Lane, 2008) Zha Daojiong, ‘China’s Energy Security and Its International Relations’, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, 3:3 (2005) Zhang, Peter G., IMF and the Asian Financial Crisis (Singapore: World Scientific, 1998) Zhang Wei-Wei, ‘The Allure of the Chinese Model’, International Herald Tribune, 1 November 2006 Zhang Yunling, ed., Designing East Asian FTA: Rationale and Feasibility (Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press, 2006) ——East Asian Regionalism and China (Beijing: World Affairs Press, 2005) ——and Tang Shiping, ‘China’s Regional Strategy’, in David Shambaugh, ed., Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005) Zhao Suisheng, ed., Chinese Foreign Policy: Pragmatism and Strategic Behavior (New York: M.
‘Year of the Three Big Headaches’, South China Morning Post, 4 January 2007. 60 . ‘China’s Priorities’, Financial Times, 9 March 2008. 61 . Yu Yongding, ‘China’s Structural Adjustment’, p. 5. 62 . Yu Yongding, ‘China’s Rise, Twin Surplus and the Change of China’s Development Strategy’, pp. 24-5. 63 . ‘What Will the World Gain from China in 20 Years?’ China Business Review, March/April 2003. 64 . Zha Daojiong, ‘China’s Energy Security and Its International Relations’, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, 3: 3 (November 2005), p. 44; and Yu Yongding, ‘The Interactions between China and the World Economy’, unpublished paper, Nikkei Simbon Symposium, 5 April 2005, p. 2. 65 . Lester R. Brown, ‘A New World Order’, Guardian, 25 January 2006. 66 . Javier Blas and Carola Hoyos, ‘IEA Predicts Oil Price to Rebound to $100’, Financial Times, 5 November 2008. 67 .
airport security, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, Bretton Woods, BRICs, capital controls, clean water, creative destruction, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, global rebalancing, global supply chain, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Julian Assange, labour mobility, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Nixon shock, nuclear winter, Parag Khanna, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Stuxnet, trade route, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, Yom Kippur War
In the dead of winter in 2009, Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas monopoly, cut supplies to Ukraine to build leverage in a dispute over pricing, and perhaps to remind Ukrainians that they continue to depend on their big brother to the east. Moscow would like Kiev to join a customs union that now includes Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus—a personal priority for Vladimir Putin—and has promised natural gas deliveries at substantially lower prices to sweeten the deal.28 Given the stakes for energy security, that’s an offer Ukraine must take seriously, because lower gas prices can help political officials avoid both the need to hit voters with new energy taxes and the public backlash that would follow. Ukraine would like to escape Russia’s gravitational pull and become a pivot state, preserving relations with Russia while building new ties with Europe. In fact, Kiev would like to sign a free trade agreement with the European Union, a deal that would create tremendous commercial opportunities for the country and might eventually help Ukraine join the EU.
They must prove it by allowing for local solutions to local problems. Learning from mistakes means accepting that deficits matter, that compromise is a virtue, and that even a colossus must live within its means. Adapting to changing circumstances means avoiding doctrinaire approaches to the country’s challenges. Emerging stronger from the G-Zero will require innovative approaches to issues such as energy security, the growth of cyberthreats, nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and climate change—and it will require Washington to maximize its strength by partnering with an ever-shifting constellation of potential allies on each of these individual tests. Most of all, Americans should have faith in their country’s core strengths. Lasting power comes from within. The primary goal of American policymakers should be to bolster the nation’s security by sharply reducing its debt burden—no reform that fails to trim the fat from America’s sacred cows can accomplish this goal.
banking crisis, British Empire, colonial rule, energy security, informal economy, megacity, offshore financial centre, Plutocrats, plutocrats, race to the bottom, Scramble for Africa, trade route, UNCLOS, wage slave
It is, after all, the tried and trusted method to get rich off the country’s main resource. As the world oil price climbed steeply between 2004 and 2008, so the battles over Nigeria’s crude became more violent, the Niger Delta turning ever closer to a Mad Max world of roving bandits. Yet, paradoxically – and worryingly – Nigeria and the broader West African region were at the same time assuming an increasingly important role in the energy security policies of Washington and Western allies such as Britain, who are keen for a bulwark against troubles in the Arabian Gulf. Nigeria has historically sent about half its oil production – between 2m and 2.6m barrels of oil daily – to the USA, where it has accounted for about 10 per cent of total imports. The US National Intelligence Council has estimated that African countries, led by Nigeria and Angola, could supply a quarter of its total oil imports by 2015.
Those who raised questions about the Obasanjo administration’s agenda risked being tagged cynics by both London and Abuja, incapable of either seeing change or overcoming their prejudices. But those who claim to be optimists can be cynical, too, particularly when – like the two governments – they share an interest in projecting an impression of rapid improvement in the state that has styled itself the ‘Heart of Africa’ and is key to Western energy security. I always found it revealing that – for all the achievements and bravery of a handful of Nigerian officials – few people outside government seemed to think reform was going far enough or fast enough to pull society from its oily mire. Most strikingly of all, by the time the president left office in 2007, events in the Niger Delta oil heartlands were making the international case for a Nigerian renaissance look at best foolish and at worst disingenuous. 178 A SWAMP FULL OF DOLLARS STARK ILLITERATES AND JUNKIES 179 9 NOT HOSTAGES BUT JOURNALISTS I am sitting sweating in a car pulled up outside one of Port Harcourt’s waterside slums, nervous and impatient for the day to begin.
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power by Daniel Yergin
anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, bank run, Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial exploitation, Columbine, continuation of politics by other means, cuban missile crisis, energy security, European colonialism, Exxon Valdez, financial independence, fudge factor, informal economy, joint-stock company, land reform, liberal capitalism, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, new economy, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old-boy network, postnationalism / post nation state, price stability, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Thomas Malthus, Yom Kippur War
Yet the 1990s began not with another environmental drama, but rather with a struggle over the oil resources of the Persian Gulf, on which the world was again becoming heavily dependent. The Gulf Crisis thrust energy security back onto the political agenda, spurring governments to focus anew on ensuring supplies. It will serve to stimulate oil exploration and development around the world. In the words of a thoughtful observer, Joseph Stanislaw, "The rules of the race between demand growth and production capacity in the 1990s have been changed by the Gulf Crisis. Now secure capacity will count for a lot more." The crisis will rekindle efforts to promote energy development within the industrial countries. Much of the industrial world will find itself caught up in the competition of two great themes—energy and security, and energy and the environment. A far-reaching clash between anxieties about energy security and economic well-being on the one side, and fears about the environment on the other, seems all but inevitable.
The global environmental agendas of the industrial world will be measured against the magnitude of that growth. In the meantime, the stage has been set for one of the great and intractable clashes of the 1990s between, on the one hand, the powerful and increasing support for greater environmental protection and, on the other, a commitment to economic growth and the benefits of Hydrocarbon Society, and apprehensions about energy security. These, then, are the three themes that animate the story that unfolds in these pages. The canvas is global. The story is a chronicle of epic events that have touched all our lives. It concerns itself both with the powerful, impersonal forces of economics and technology and with the strategies and cunning of businessmen and politicians. Populating its pages are the tycoons and entrepreneurs of the industry—Rockefeller, of course, but also Henri Deterding, Calouste Gulbenkian, J.
But now the balance shifted; in 1948 imports of crude oil and products together exceeded exports for the first time. No longer could the United States continue its historical role as supplier to the rest of the world. Now it was dependent on other countries for that marginal barrel, and an ominous new phrase was being heard more often in the American vocabulary—"foreign oil." The Great Oil Deals: Aramco and the "Arabian Risk" That shift added a new dimension to the vexing question of energy security. The lessons of World War II, the growing economic significance of oil, and the magnitude of Middle Eastern resources all served, in the context of the developing Cold War with the Soviet Union, to define the preservation of access to that oil as a prime element in American and British—and Western European-security. Oil provided the point at which foreign policy, international economic considerations, national security, and corporate interests would all converge.
A Game as Old as Empire: The Secret World of Economic Hit Men and the Web of Global Corruption by Steven Hiatt; John Perkins
airline deregulation, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, big-box store, Bob Geldof, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, centre right, clean water, colonial rule, corporate governance, corporate personhood, deglobalization, deindustrialization, Doha Development Round, energy security, European colonialism, financial deregulation, financial independence, full employment, global village, high net worth, land reform, large denomination, liberal capitalism, Long Term Capital Management, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, new economy, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, oil shock, Ponzi scheme, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, statistical model, structural adjustment programs, too big to fail, trade liberalization, transatlantic slave trade, transfer pricing, union organizing, Washington Consensus, working-age population, Yom Kippur War
Agreeing with right-wing think tanks in Washington that African oil should be labeled an area of vital U.S. interest, Morrison also asserted that these dealings needed to be transparent and to promote development and human rights. A cynical observer might argue that this stance is clever: there have been so many decades of corrupt deals with little money going to the local population that the status quo cannot continue. If U.S. energy security can be guaranteed only by African oil, exploiting that oil can be guaranteed only if America can claim that Africans are benefiting from oil development. Transparency in oil deals then becomes a tool to make exploitation of African oil acceptable to the wider community. Just as Washington and European capitals were wielding these new tools of exploitation, however, here came China advocating the same old tools: the raw power of money, with little or no regard for human rights, let alone transparency.
Wälde, “The Current Status of International Petroleum Investment: Regulating, Licensing, Taxing and Contracting,” CEPMLP Journal 1, no. 5 (July 1995), published by the University of Dundee. 25. ITIC, “Petroleum and Iraq’s Future: Fiscal Options and Challenges,” Fall 2004, p. 10. 26. Dunia Chalabi (International Energy Agency), “Perspective for Investment in the Middle East/North Africa Region,” presentation to the OECD, Istanbul, February 11-12, 2004, p. 7. 27. Ian Rutledge, Addicted to Oil: America’s Relentless Drive for Energy Security (London: I. B. Tauris, 2005). 28. These figures are in real terms (2006 prices), undiscounted. The calculation is based on data from the Iraqi Ministry of Oil and industry sources, for the fields Halfaya, Nahr Umar, Majnoon, West Qurna, Gharaf, Nasiriya, Rafidain, Amara, Tuba, Ratawi, East Baghdad, and Ahdab. Cash flow models were constructed for these fields, applying PSA terms that are used in Russia, Libya, and Oman.
London: PLATFORM, 2005. Available at www.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2005/crudedesigns.htm. Parenti, Christian. The Freedom: Shadows and Hallucinations in Occupied Iraq. New York: New Press, 2004. Phillips, Kevin. American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21st Century. New York: Viking, 2006. Rutledge, Ian. Addicted to Oil: America’s Relentless Drive for Energy Security. London: I. B. Tauris, 2005. Simmons, Matthew. Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2005. Yergin, Daniel. The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. New York: Free Press, 1993. General Union of Oil Employees: www.basraoilunion.org. Iraq Occuaption Focus, www.iraqoccupationfocus.org.uk/. Hub for news and analysis of the occupation of Iraq; publishes a free e-newsletter.
This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate by Naomi Klein
1960s counterculture, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, big-box store, bilateral investment treaty, British Empire, business climate, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, energy security, energy transition, equal pay for equal work, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, financial deregulation, food miles, Food sovereignty, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, ice-free Arctic, immigration reform, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, light touch regulation, market fundamentalism, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, new economy, Nixon shock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open borders, patent troll, Pearl River Delta, planetary scale, post-oil, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Rana Plaza, Ronald Reagan, smart grid, special economic zone, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, structural adjustment programs, Ted Kaczynski, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, wages for housework, walkable city, Washington Consensus, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks
Michael Bloomberg did not respond to repeated requests for comment.55 The EDF has done more than help the fracking industry appear to be taking environmental concerns seriously. It also led research that has been used to counter claims that high methane leakage disqualifies fracked natural gas as a climate solution. The EDF has partnered with Shell, Chevron, and other top energy companies on one in a series of studies on methane leaks with the clear goal, as one EDF official put it, of helping “natural gas to be an accepted part of a strategy for improving energy security and moving to a clean energy future.” When the first study arrived in September 2013, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, it made news by identifying fugitive methane leakage rates from gas extraction that were ten to twenty times lower than those in most other studies to date.56 But the study’s design contained serious limitations, the most glaring of which was allowing the gas companies to choose the wells they wanted inspected.
So we need money, we need technology, to be able to do things differently.”43 And that means the wealthy world must pay its climate debts. And yet financing a just transition in fast-developing economies has not been a priority of activists in the North. Indeed a great many Big Green groups in the United States consider the idea of climate debt to be politically toxic, since, unlike the standard “energy security” and green jobs arguments that present climate action as a race that rich countries can win, it requires emphasizing the importance of international cooperation and solidarity. Sunita Narain hears these objections often. “I’m always being told—especially by my friends in America—that . . . issues of historical responsibility are something that we should not talk about. What my forefathers did is not my responsibility.”
Green Energy and Green Economy Act, 2009, S.O. 2009, c.12—Bill 150, Government of Ontario, 2009. 6. Jenny Yuen, “Gore Green with Envy,” Toronto Star, November 25, 2009; “International Support for Ontario’s Green Energy Act,” Government of Ontario, Ministry of Energy, June 24, 2009. 7. “Feed-in Tariff Program: FIT Rules Version 1.1,” Ontario Power Authority, September 30, 2009, p. 14. 8. Michael A. Levi, “The Canadian Oil Sands: Energy Security vs. Climate Change,” Council on Foreign Relations, 2009, p. 12; Gary Rabbior, “Why the Canadian Dollar Has Been Bouncing Higher,” Globe and Mail, October 30, 2009. 9. GAS: Mississauga Power Plant Cancellation Costs, Special Report, Office of the Auditor General of Ontario, April 2013, pp. 7–8; Oakville Power Plant Cancellation Costs, Special Report, Office of the Auditor General of Ontario, October 2013, pp. 7–8; WIND: Dave Seglins, “Ont.
air freight, banking crisis, big-box store, BRICs, carbon footprint, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, energy security, food miles, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, immigration reform, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Just-in-time delivery, market clearing, megacity, North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, profit maximization, reserve currency, South Sea Bubble, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, zero-sum game
Like the change you desperately look for in the pockets of pants you haven’t worn for a while, a lot of the oil we refine and burn these days is stuff we wouldn’t even bother with if we still had access to yesterday’s oil fields. But we don’t have access to those fields any more. They have long been sucked dry by our parents’ cars. From the North Sea to Mexico and from Russia to Indonesia, oil wells are producing less oil than they used to. For a long time, the International Energy Agency (a body set up by the OECD to prevent supply disruptions and promote energy security) kept telling us the world’s wells were declining at 3.7 percent each year. Then, in late 2008, after a rigorous international study, they revised that figure to 6.7 percent. At the stroke of a pen, the global economy lost millions of barrels of oil. The situation is particularly dire in the world’s biggest oil market—the United States. Over the last three decades, US oil production has literally halved, from as much as 10 million barrels per day in the early 1970s down to 5 million today.
Potash producers in Saskatchewan were working overtime to try to keep up with the American market’s seemingly insatiable demand for fertilizer despite a quintupling in the price of a ton of the stuff in 2008. For those blessed by ethanol production, times have never been better. But for energy consumers in the United States as well as for American taxpayers, who are ultimately footing the bill for all those subsidies, the production of corn-based ethanol is a costly head fake whose attraction is all about local politics, not about national energy security, or, for that matter, even energy common sense. Surging food inflation and mounting budgetary costs are already beginning to undercut public support for ethanol’s ill-conceived subsidies. The sooner that public support collapses, the better. The only thing this renewable energy policy will fuel is inflation. LEARNING THE WRONG LESSONS A few decades later, it seems that the worst consequence of the oil shocks of the 1970s was not the panic or the lineups at the pumps, not the stagflation or the arrival of the Pinto.
These estimates excluded manufactured materials used to make the batteries, not to mention the market for automobiles themselves, which was enormous. Companies elsewhere in the world—in China, in Japan, in South Korea, for example—were gearing up to capture that business, to create jobs for their societies. That was one reason Argonne was on a mission to create a lithium-ion battery industry in the United States. Another was energy security. “So we import a lot of oil, a little over a billion dollars a day,” he told the silent room. “Some of that is from friends, some from enemies. So that’s not a secure position.” And the third component was environmental security—if the United States could move away from fossil fuel consumption, climate change would be less of a threat as well. “So in the big picture,” Chamberlain said, “I wanted to remind you of the mission we’re on.”
., 11–12 Frisch, Damon, 231, 260 Gallagher, Kevin, 100, 185, 207–10, 224, 233 and ARPA-E, 201, 204 and Battery Hub, 212–14, 228, 243–45, 252 and Envia, 201, 208, 213–14, 277, 279 and Nelson-Gallagher model, 212, 213–14, 243–44 and Obama visit, 268–71 and voltage fade, 158, 239, 285–86 Galvani, Luigi, 18 Gates, Bill, 195, 199 Geely, 6, 284 General Electric (GE), 8, 62 General Motors (GM), 71, 183, 188, 196, 284, 285 bankruptcy filing by, 114 and Chevy Spark, 214 and DC resistance, 230–31 and Envia, 110–17, 205, 206, 230–31, 255–59, 260–67, 272–75, 276–81, 286 and EV1, 184 GM Ventures, 109–16, 151, 205 and Volt, see Volt Goldwasser, Eugene, 127 Goodenough, John, 21, 22–26, 91, 113, 210, 269 and Battery Hub, 242–43 leadership style of, 25–26, 30, 101 and lithium-cobalt-oxide battery, 25, 27, 28–29, 31, 35, 38, 44, 45, 52, 58, 119, 152, 154 and Padhi, 37–39 and patents, 33, 36, 38–39, 66 and Thackeray, 30–32, 33, 38 Goodenough-Kanamori rules, 23 Greenberger, Jim, 130–31 Grove, Andrew, 75–76, 129 Gruen, Dieter, 10–11, 13–15, 209 Henriksen, Gary, 236–37 Herschel, William, 27 Higgs boson, 119 Hillebrand, Don, 182–85, 187–89, 228, 284, 286 Honda, 115, 116, 117, 206, 231, 257 Howard, Matt, 268–69 Howell, Dave, 107, 134–35, 160, 167, 210 Hu Jintao, 4 hybrid vehicles, 8, 20, 36, 76, 109, 177–78, 179, 184, 185, 257 Hyundai, 196 IBM, 186, 206 India, Union Carbide leak in, 36 Intel, 75–76, 121, 129 intercalation, use of term, 21 internal combustion engine, 19, 45, 109, 132, 154–55, 179, 181, 183 iPhone, 129, 187, 198, 250–51 Isaacs, Eric, 119, 269, 286 and Battery Hub, 135, 137–38, 216, 218–19, 220–21, 225–26, 243–44, 248, 250, 251, 253, 254 and En-Caesar, 135, 137 Iyer, Hari, 256, 258, 262–66, 274, 276, 277 Jae-kook Kim, 56, 57 Japan: battery production in, 35, 102–3, 136, 178, 192 competition in, 36, 75, 99, 129, 130, 177–78, 214, 280 consumer battery market in, 5, 7, 8, 9, 142 and electric vehicles, 184, 284 patents in, 39, 66, 98–99, 197 U.S. ideas moving to, 36, 187, 205 Jobs, Steve, 202 Johnson, Chris: and lithium-ion, 41, 43, 58, 153 and NMC, 41, 43, 58–59, 72, 153, 159, 236, 278 and patents, 46, 56–57, 72, 153 and Thackeray, 40–41, 42, 43, 46, 287 and voltage fade, 159, 227–28 Johnson, Lady Bird, 179 Johnson Controls, 68, 131, 149, 150 Joshua, Matthus, 266, 273, 276 Jun Lu, 99 Kang Eun Kyung, 100–101 Kapadia, Atul, 91 and Envia/Kumar, 86, 106–7, 114–17, 166, 202–6, 255, 257–58, 261, 262–67, 274, 276–77, 279, 280–81 and venture capital, 85–86, 106–7, 112, 117 Khosla, Vinod, 190–91 Kumar, Sujeet, 83–87, 88–90, 91, 192–98 and Argonne, 83–85, 86, 152 and ARPA-E, 193–98, 201–6, 207, 230, 233, 277 and Chamberlain, 86–87, 88, 115–17, 203–4 and Energy Department, 105, 165–66, 190, 193, 231–32 and Envia, 86, 107–8, 111, 114, 116–17, 162–66, 206, 238–41, 239, 255–59, 260–67, 272–75, 276–81, 286 and GM, 110–14, 165, 205, 230–31, 256–59, 260–67, 276, 278–80, 286 and NanoeXA, 94–95, 267, 280–81 and NMC, 83, 84, 94, 95, 111, 128, 152, 155, 165, 169, 170–71, 193–96, 231, 261, 277, 286 and venture capital, 84–87, 106, 116, 126, 205–6 and voltage fade, 155, 157, 163–64, 168–69, 233–34, 238–39 lattice, 44 Lauckner, Jon, 109–14, 205, 231, 280, 286 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 132–33, 135–36, 165, 166, 260 Lawroski, Stephen, 13 LG Chemical, 9, 70–72, 110, 113–14, 156, 257, 261, 267, 285 Lindbergh, Erik, 286 Littlewood, Peter, 118–20, 122, 243–44, 286 Madia, Bill, 218–22, 223–24, 226, 253–54 Majumdar, Arun, 195, 199, 200–201, 203–5, 279 Manhattan Project, 10, 11, 129, 143 Mansfield, Mike, 23 Markovic, Nenad, 243 Mathias, Mark, 216, 231 Matsushita, 197 microchips, 75, 186 Microsoft model, 118 MIT, Lincoln Laboratory, 23 mobile phones, 122, 186 Moore’s law, 186 Morse, Edward, 180 Musk, Elon, 232–33 NanoeXa, 83–84, 94–95, 267, 280–81 Naperville, 13 natural gas, 60 Nelson, Paul, 16–17, 210–13 Newman, John, 132, 134–35 Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT), 37–38, 39 Nissan, 107, 115, 116, 158, 183, 202, 284 Leaf, 177, 179, 183, 186 Nitz, Larry, 266–67, 273 nuclear age, 10, 14, 20 Oak Ridge National Lab, 11, 14, 137, 228, 242–43, 260 Obama, Barack: Argonne visit of, 268–71 one-million-car goal, 5, 60 Obama administration, 135, 280 and battery competition, 70–71, 84, 107–8, 130, 187, 252, 253 and economic stimulus, 131, 203 and electric cars, 60, 106, 125, 145, 177, 178, 187, 261 and LG Chemical, 70–71, 113 oil: Arab embargo (1973), 21, 23, 28 demand for, 8, 60–61, 178 electricity as challenge to, 152 and energy security, 142–43, 284 prices of, 8, 35, 60, 178, 179, 180, 183, 189 public image of, 84, 146 shale gas and, 180, 190 Okada, Shigeto, 37–39 omnivorous engine, 188 OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), 8, 23, 61, 183 Orbach, Ray, 242 Ovshinsky, Stan, 36 Oxford University, 24, 29–30, 32, 33, 36 Padhi, Akshaya, 37–39 Pak, Michael, 84, 94–95, 267 Panasonic, 9, 36, 197, 214, 232, 265 Park Sang-Jin, 102–3 Patel, Anish, 113 patent applications: for NMC, 45, 58–59, 66, 170, 197 race for, 39, 47 for spinel, 33, 38–39 patents: challenges to, 47 contributions described in, 57 enforcement of, 73 failure to patent, 127 government-funded, 68 infringement of, 39, 71 international, 65–69, 98, 153, 197 inventors’ names on, 156 lawsuits for, 39, 197 lead time for, 57–58 and licensing, 36, 68–69, 95 protection of, 78 provisional, 46, 55 and royalties, 36, 98, 149–51 signing away rights to, 36, 77 stealing ideas for, 38, 55 Pentagon, 127 Persson, Kristin, 243 Peters, Mark, 218, 220, 228, 251, 253 Planté, Gaston, 19 plutonium, creation of, 11 Popular Science, 19–20 Preto, Sandy, 16 Prius, 36, 153, 158, 177–78, 179, 185, 186, 188–89 Putin, Vladimir, 8, 284 Ralston Purina, 36 RCA, 62 Reagan, Ronald, 35, 122, 129 Redpoint Ventures, 112 Rickover, Hyman, 14 Riley, Bart, 154–58, 163 RockPort Capital Partners, 84–85 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 11 Russia, oil production in, 61, 183 Sadoway, Donald, 199 SAGE (computer memory), 23 Samsung, 9, 155, 158, 202, 205, 213, 231, 261, 265, 267, 284 Samsung SDI, 102–3, 104 Sattelberger, Al, 5 Schroeder, Dave, 62, 63–65 Seaborg, Glenn, 10 Seegopaul, Purnesh, 202–3, 263, 266, 274–75 Sematech (Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology), 129–31, 133, 282 Sharp, 214 Shin-Etsu, 265, 266, 281 silicon chips, 75–76 Silicon Valley, 129, 150, 201 Asian immigrants in, 90–94 Sinkula, Mike, 83–87, 88, 95, 110, 114, 116–17, 202, 263, 280 Slater, Mike, 207, 209 smart phones, 5, 167, 186, 187 Smil, Vaclav, 199 Solyndra, 203, 240 Sony, 35, 41, 118, 152, 197, 198, 214 South Africa, 27–28, 41–42, 43, 47 South Korea: battery competition in, 99, 103, 114, 136, 214, 280, 284 consumer battery market in, 5, 8, 9, 37, 142 patents filed in, 66, 197 trade alliance with, 70–72 spec sheets, 115–16 spinel, 28–29, 30–32, 33, 38–39, 41–42, 45–46, 110, 113, 152, 153 Spitfire (chip), 85 Srinivasan, Venkat, 91, 120, 149, 220 Straubel, JB, 232 Sun-Ho Kang, 100–104, 155, 157–59, 213, 231 Sun Microsystems, 190 technology: and global financial crises, 7–8 and Moore’s law, 186 usual path of, 185–86, 189, 192, 201 Teller, Edward, 23 Temping Yu, 99 Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), 11 Tesla Motors, 232–33, 284 Thackeray, Lisa, 42, 217 Thackeray, Mike, 27–33, 40–48, 67, 103, 235–36, 237, 269, 270 and battery competition, 78, 91, 126, 180, 182 and Battery Hub, 132, 135, 137, 141–42, 149, 217–18, 221, 227–28, 248, 251, 254, 269 and Chamberlain, 27, 73–74, 77–78, 128, 141–42, 221 and collaboration, 140–42, 170 and Croy, 168, 170–72, 238, 241, 286, 287 and Envia/Kumar, 78, 85, 166, 168–72, 207, 255–56, 277, 278 and Johnson, 40–41, 42, 43, 46, 287 and lithium-ion, 31–33, 41–42, 45–46, 152, 153 move to Argonne, 41–42, 48, 53, 98, 102 and NMC, 41, 43–47, 55–57, 58, 66, 70–72, 72, 74, 79, 84, 102, 127, 132, 141, 152, 153–57, 160, 197 and patents, 33, 46–47, 73, 78, 84, 127, 153, 156, 170 and spinel, 28–29, 30–32, 33, 38, 41–42, 45–46, 110, 113, 152, 153 and voltage fade, 154–57, 159–60, 210, 238 Thatcher, Margaret, 35 thermodynamics, 154, 169, 170 3M Company, 58, 66, 153, 197–98 Toda, 67, 156 Toyota, 8, 115, 116, 117, 189, 231, 257, 284 and Prius, see Prius Trahey, Lynn, 207, 208–10, 212, 268–71 transistor, 122 Tulgey Wood, 11–12 Ullrick, Brad, 224–25 Union Carbide, 36 Union of Concerned Scientists, 214–15 United States: and battery competition, 5, 6, 7, 9, 68, 71, 74, 107, 151 energy requirements of, 75 industrial decline in, 37, 129 research cutbacks in, 62, 65 University of Chicago, 127 Stagg Field, 10, 11 University of Texas, 39, 242 uranium-235, 11 Vaughey, Jack, 135, 228, 235, 237–38 Vegetabile, Jim, 147 Venkatachalam, Mani, 163, 165 venture capital, 84–87, 106–7, 111–13, 116–17, 126, 128, 190–91, 201, 266, 274 Verbrugge, Mark, 111 Vissers, Don, 41–42, 53, 55, 102 Volt, 109–13, 145–48 batteries for, 3, 4, 5, 47–48, 70, 107, 113, 146–48, 155, 197–98, 233, 257, 266, 272, 280, 285 as concept car, 109, 110, 147 cost of, 72, 107, 109, 257 fires in, 145–46 as hybrid, 109, 185 in the lab, 188 market for, 72, 109, 183 next generation of, 110, 112, 256–57 sales of, 109, 177, 186 Volta, Alessandro, 18, 19, 45 Wan Gang, 60, 76, 96, 178, 180, 280, 282–83, 284 U.S. visit of, 3–6, 7, 9, 27, 79 Wanxiang, 252 Watson, T.
The Weather of the Future by Heidi Cullen
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, air freight, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, availability heuristic, back-to-the-land, bank run, California gold rush, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, energy security, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, mass immigration, megacity, millennium bug, out of africa, Silicon Valley, smart cities, trade route, urban planning, Y2K
The Desertec consortium, brought together by Munich Re, the world’s biggest reinsurer, consisted of some of Germany’s biggest and most powerful companies, including Siemens and Deutsche Bank. The plant symbolized a way to solve the problems of climate change and energy security simultaneously—and if everything went according to plan, it might help Africans as well. North African governments sold their desert in return for water. Let us use your desert to generate power, the Desertec consortium argued, and you can use our energy to desalinate seawater so as to irrigate crops that will help feed your growing populations. North Africa’s demand for water had, in fact, increased by two-thirds—an amount that was far beyond the available supply. For Africa, energy security was far less of a concern than water security. The deal was straightforward—Desertec would generate electricity for export in return for desalinating seawater for Africa—and it was a deal that was very hard to pass up.
Rethinking Capitalism: Economics and Policy for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth by Michael Jacobs, Mariana Mazzucato
3D printing, balance sheet recession, banking crisis, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Bretton Woods, business climate, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, collaborative economy, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Detroit bankruptcy, double entry bookkeeping, Elon Musk, endogenous growth, energy security, eurozone crisis, factory automation, facts on the ground, fiat currency, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial intermediation, forward guidance, full employment, G4S, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, investor state dispute settlement, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, Mont Pelerin Society, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, new economy, non-tariff barriers, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, price stability, private sector deleveraging, quantitative easing, QWERTY keyboard, railway mania, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, the built environment, The Great Moderation, The Spirit Level, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, total factor productivity, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, universal basic income, very high income
This is especially relevant in the present context of economic stagnation and pervasive macroeconomic uncertainty. Third, and perhaps most important, well-managed SIBs with a clear mandate are able to provide the kind of patient, long-term and mission-oriented finance that is needed to support investment in infrastructure and new technologies. Many of these long-term, capital-intensive and risky projects, which are necessary to deal with great challenges like climate change and energy security, will not be given credit by a private financial sector increasingly oriented towards the short term.2 This chapter starts by outlining the weak macroeconomic conditions currently exhibited in the EU, in particular in the euro zone. We then discuss the main EU policy measures that have been implemented in recent years to counteract the decline in productive fixed investment. After illustrating their limited effectiveness, we set out our proposed investment plan for Europe, comprising an expansion of lending by the EIB and slower fiscal consolidation.
The scale of investment in low-carbon energy that these plans will require is already shifting investor expectations, leading to predictions of further cost reductions as the scale of global markets expands and boosting the prospects of further technological innovation, for example in energy storage. The value of high-carbon assets, such as the stocks of coal mining companies, is already in decline, and investors are increasingly analysing the risks to such assets which further climate policy may bring.44 Meanwhile, policy-makers are increasingly recognising the short-term benefits from effectively managing a low-carbon transition in terms of energy efficiency, energy security, urban pollution, congestion and generating innovation.45 It is too early to say that a low-carbon transformation tipping point has been reached; but it is no longer fanciful to imagine it on the horizon. Indeed, the historic Paris Accord was as much a reflection as a cause of a fundamental change in perceptions about the economics of decarbonisation; one that has shifted from cost (and burdens to be shared) to opportunities and self-interest.
The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey
3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve
Besides those just listed, there are the basket cases of Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Angola, and Libya—and that’s just in Africa. If an “oil crisis” fails to materialize, it will be chiefly because nimble private oil companies will have succeeded in boosting production capacity in enough places around the world that temporarily losing one or two major producers to incompetence or malice won’t matter much. But the sad fact is that the world’s energy security would be a lot greater if more of the world’s oil and gas resources were in the hands of private companies. Peak oil, if it occurs, will be the result of human folly and government greed, not because the world has suddenly run out of crude. Finally, it should be noted that many environmentalists aren’t scared that we will soon run out of oil; instead, they fear that we won’t. Why? Because they worry about the effect the carbon dioxide emitted into atmosphere by burning all that oil will have on the climate.
,” Munich RePEc Archive Paper 51859, December 4, 2013, 9. mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51859/1/MPRA_paper_51859.pdf. The super-cycles are: Martin Stuermer, “150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?” Munich RePEc Archive Paper 51859, December 4, 2013. mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51859/1/MPRA_paper_51859.pdf. “Since 1871, the Economist”: Blake Clayton, “Bad News for Pessimists Everywhere,” Energy, Security, and Climate, Council on Foreign Relations, March 22, 2013. many researchers believe: David Jacks, “From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 18874, March 2013, 4. www.nber.org/papers/w18874; and Maria Kolesnikova and Isis Almeida, “Goldman Sees New Commodity Cycle as Shale Oil Spurs U.S. Growth.” Bloomberg News, January 13, 2014. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-13/goldman-sees-new-commodity-cycle-as-shale-oil-spurs-u-s-growth.html.
The Age of Stagnation by Satyajit Das
9 dash line, accounting loophole / creative accounting, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Anton Chekhov, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collaborative economy, colonial exploitation, computer age, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation / currency intervention, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, declining real wages, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, disintermediation, Downton Abbey, Emanuel Derman, energy security, energy transition, eurozone crisis, financial innovation, financial repression, forward guidance, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global supply chain, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, happiness index / gross national happiness, Honoré de Balzac, hydraulic fracturing, Hyman Minsky, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, indoor plumbing, informal economy, Innovator's Dilemma, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, light touch regulation, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mahatma Gandhi, margin call, market design, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, Mikhail Gorbachev, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old age dependency ratio, open economy, passive income, peak oil, peer-to-peer lending, pension reform, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Potemkin village, precariat, price stability, profit maximization, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, Rana Plaza, rent control, rent-seeking, reserve currency, ride hailing / ride sharing, rising living standards, risk/return, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Satyajit Das, savings glut, secular stagnation, seigniorage, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Slavoj Žižek, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, TaskRabbit, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the market place, the payments system, The Spirit Level, Thorstein Veblen, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade route, transaction costs, unpaid internship, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, Washington Consensus, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, Y2K, Yom Kippur War, zero-coupon bond, zero-sum game
The government resents external pressure on its economic policies, currency value, trading practices, political system, foreign policy, and human rights record. China sees diminishing gains from engagement with external parties other than on its own terms. There is also resentment towards developed nations for a perceived lack of respect in dealing with a great power. China has shifted its priorities to food and energy security, needed to sustain its development. For China, a reversal of a policy of international engagement represents a return to traditional economic self-reliance with a limited interest in trade. In 1793, the Chinese emperor told British envoy Lord Macartney that China did not value “ingenious articles” and “had not the slightest need of [England's] manufactures.”9 As Robert Hart, nineteenth-century British trade commissioner for China, wrote, “[The] Chinese have the best food in the world, rice; the best drink, tea; and the best clothing, cotton, silk, fur.
Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: History, Requirements, Prospects, Praeger, 2010. Steven Solomon, Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, and Civilisation, Harper Perennial, 2010. Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, Cambridge University Press, 2007. Alan Weisman, The World without Us, Picador, 2007. Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, Touchstone Books, 1991. ——, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World, Penguin, 2011. Inequality and Trust Geoffrey Hosking, Trust: A History, Oxford University Press, 2014. Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Belknap Press, 2014. Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger, Bloomsbury Press, 2011. Satyajit Das is a globally respected former banker and consultant with over thirty-five years’ experience in financial markets.
Nuclear War and Environmental Catastrophe by Noam Chomksy
American Legislative Exchange Council, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, energy security, Howard Zinn, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Malacca Straits, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks
On the influence of Koch-funded groups on the election process, see note 3, chap. 6. 103 Shelby Lin Erdman, “Battle over Controversial International Oil Pipeline Growing,” CNN, September 5, 2011. The API spokesperson quoted in the article was contacted to verify accuracy; she responded, “If they [Tar Sands Action participants] are protesting the pipeline they are protesting a shovel-ready job that will put thousands of Americans to work. This industry is focused on creating jobs, producing energy responsibly and strengthening America’s energy security.” Sabrina Fang, API Media Relations, e-mail correspondence, November 16, 2011. On how Saudi interests infuse money into US elections through trade associations, namely, API, see Lee Fang, “How Big Business Is Buying the Election,” The Nation, September 17, 2012. 104 The Tar Sands Action is part of an ongoing campaign to protest the proposed 1,661-mile pipeline from Alberta, Canada, to refineries on the Texas Gulf Coast.
That Used to Be Us by Thomas L. Friedman, Michael Mandelbaum
3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Andy Kessler, Ayatollah Khomeini, bank run, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, centre right, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collective bargaining, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, energy security, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, full employment, Google Earth, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Lean Startup, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, mass immigration, more computing power than Apollo, Network effects, obamacare, oil shock, pension reform, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, WikiLeaks
If we do not find a new source of abundant, cheap, clean, and reliable energy to power the future of all these “new Americans,” we run the risk of burning up, choking up, heating up, and smoking up our planet far faster than even Al Gore predicted. This means, however, that the technologies that can supply abundant, cheap, clean, and reliable energy will be the next new global industry. Energy technology—ET—will be the new IT. A country with a thriving ET industry will enjoy energy security, will enhance its own national security, and will contribute to global environmental security. It also will be home to innovative companies, because companies cannot make products greener without inventing smarter materials, smarter software, and smarter designs. It is hard to imagine how America will be able to sustain a rising standard of living if it does not have a leading role in this next great global industry.
There is every reason to believe, in other words, that clean energy will become the successor to information technology as the next major cutting-edge industry on which the economic fortunes of the richest countries in the world will depend. That is the bet that China has made in its twelfth five-year plan, authorized in March 2011, which stresses that development of renewable energy will be the key to China’s energy security for the next decade. That plan places special emphasis on developing solar and nuclear energy. Moreover, renewable energy depends on new technology, which the United States has historically led the world in developing. China is now seeking to seize that position. “Chinese solar panel manufacturers accounted for slightly over half the world’s production last year,” Keith Bradsher, the New York Times Hong Kong business reporter, wrote (January 14, 2011).
The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith
Bretton Woods, BRICs, clean water, Climategate, colonial rule, deglobalization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, flex fuel, global supply chain, Google Earth, guest worker program, Hans Island, hydrogen economy, ice-free Arctic, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, land tenure, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Y2K
How much of each commodity is needed to provide the other is something not well appreciated by the public.”242 It is something not well appreciated by politicians and planners either. Instead of recognizing this marriage between energy and water, their respective planning and regulatory agencies are almost always totally separate entities. “Energy analysts have typically ignored the water requirements of their proposed measures to meet stated energy security goals. Water analysts have typically ignored the energy requirements to meet stated water goals,” concluded a recent Oak Ridge National Laboratory report.243 Historically we have gotten away with this thanks to cheap water, cheap energy, or both. That cushion will continue to narrow as supplies of both tighten out to 2050. One of the most widely anticipated outcomes of climate change is that the Hadley Cell circulation will weaken slightly and expand.
Righter, Wind Power in View: Energy Landscapes in a Crowded World (San Diego: Academic Press, 2002), 248 pp. 240 The reason for this is the very large water losses that evaporate from the open reservoirs behind hydroelectric dams. 241 For example, see P. W. Gerbens-Leenes, A. Y. Hoekstra, T. H. van der Meer, “The Water Footprint of Energy from Biomass: A Quantitative Assessment and Consequences of an Increasing Share of Bio-energy in Energy Supply,” Ecological Economics 68 (2009): 1052-1060. 242 Telephone interview with M. Pasqualetti, April 14, 2009. 243 T. R. Curlee, M. J. Sale, “Water and Energy Security,” Proceedings, Universities Council on Water Resources, 2003. 244 For climate model simulations of Hadley Cell expansion, see J. Lu, G. A. Vecchi, T. Reichler, “Expansion of the Hadley Cell under Global Warming,” Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007): L06085; for direct observations from satellites, see Q. Fu, C. M. Johanson, J. M. Wallace, T. Reichler, “Enhanced Mid-latitude Tropospheric Warming in Satellite Measurements,” Science 312, no. 5777 (2006): 1179. 245 P.
accounting loophole / creative accounting, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, American energy revolution, Bakken shale, Bernie Sanders, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, corporate governance, corporate raider, energy security, energy transition, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), margin call, market fundamentalism, Mason jar, North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Project Plowshare, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Upton Sinclair
With a typical mix of boldness and far-reaching rhetoric, he said: “The future will once again belong to producers over the next twenty to fifty years.” 10 CELESTIA Fracking is changing the world, but some places are shouldering more of this change than others. To understand better what Aubrey McClendon and Chesapeake have created, I returned to the Farm for a week to spend time traveling around Sullivan County. Chesapeake had leased thousands of acres and drilled nearly one hundred wells, including one on my parents’ property. The debate over fracking here isn’t abstract. US energy security and climate change don’t come up that often in conversation. When residents of Sullivan County talk about fracking, they talk about their water and land as well as the trucks on the roads. What I learned—and would have realized long ago if I had thought about it—was that my parents’ approach to the land was out of step with their neighbors’. They planned to keep the land untouched and wild.
“Comparative Economics of Gas Production from Conventional, Tight, and Deep Reservoirs.” Paper presented at SPE Unconventional Gas Recovery Symposium, Pittsburgh, May 16–18, 1982. Tarbell, Ida M. The History of the Standard Oil Company (Briefer Version). Edited by David M. Chalmers. New York: Harper & Row, 1966. Yergin, Daniel. The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. New York: Free Press, 1991. ———. The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World. New York: Penguin Press, 2011. Yost II, A. B., W. K. Overbey Jr., and R. S. Carden. “Drilling a 2,000-ft Horizontal Well in the Devonian Shale.” Paper presented at SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Dallas, September 27–30, 1987. Yost II, A. B., and W. K. Overbey Jr. “Production and Stimulation Analysis of Multiple Hydraulic Fracturing of a 2,000-ft.
The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters by Gregory Zuckerman
activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, American energy revolution, Asian financial crisis, Bakken shale, Bernie Sanders, Buckminster Fuller, corporate governance, corporate raider, credit crunch, energy security, Exxon Valdez, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, LNG terminal, margin call, Maui Hawaii, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Peter Thiel, reshoring, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, urban decay
CHAPTER FOUR 1. Ann Zimmerman, “A Lot of Gas,” Dallas Observer, May 15, 1997. 2. Russell Gold, “The Man Who Pioneered the Shale-Gas Revolution,” Wall Street Journal, October 23, 2012. 3. Dan Steward, The Barnett Shale Play: Phoenix of the Fort Worth Basin; A History (Fort Worth, TX: Fort Worth Geological Society/North Texas Geological Society, 2007). 4. Daniel Yergin, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (New York: Penguin Press, 2011). 5. Daniel Yergin, “Stepping on the Gas,” Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2011. 6. Jim Fuquay, “Q&A, George Mitchell, Founder of Mitchell Energy,” Fort Worth Star-Telegram, April 2, 2008. CHAPTER FIVE 1. Jerry Shottenkirk, “OKC-Based SandRidge Energy CEO Tom Ward Says He Has Much to Be Thankful For,” Oklahoma Journal Record, January 8, 2007. 2.
John Shiffman, Anna Driver, and Brian Grow, “Special Report: The Lavish and Leveraged Life of Aubrey McClendon,” Reuters, June 7, 2012. 8. Ana Campoy, “Natural-Gas Producers Cut Output,” Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2007. 9. John J. Fialka, “Wildcat Producer Sparks Oil Boom on Montana Plains,” Wall Street Journal, April 5, 2006. 10. Joe Carroll, “Peak Oil Scare Fades as Shale, Deepwater Wells Gush Crude,” Bloomberg News, February 6, 2012; Daniel Yergin, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (New York: Penguin Press, 2011). CHAPTER ELEVEN 1. Christopher Helman, “In His Own Words: Chesapeake’s Aubrey McClendon Answers Our 25 Questions,” Forbes, October 5, 2011. 2. Joshua Schneyer, Jeanine Prezioso, and David Sheppard, “Inside Chesapeake, CEO Ran $200 Million Hedge Fund,” Reuters, May 2, 2012. 3. Ryan Dezember, “Texas Oil Man Finds a New Groove,” Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2012. 4.
Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization by Parag Khanna
1919 Motor Transport Corps convoy, 2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, 9 dash line, additive manufacturing, Admiral Zheng, affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, borderless world, Boycotts of Israel, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, British Empire, business intelligence, call centre, capital controls, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, complexity theory, continuation of politics by other means, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, data is the new oil, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deglobalization, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, Detroit bankruptcy, digital map, diversification, Doha Development Round, edge city, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, energy security, ethereum blockchain, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, Ferguson, Missouri, financial innovation, financial repression, fixed income, forward guidance, global supply chain, global value chain, global village, Google Earth, Hernando de Soto, high net worth, Hyperloop, ice-free Arctic, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, industrial cluster, industrial robot, informal economy, Infrastructure as a Service, interest rate swap, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, John von Neumann, Julian Assange, Just-in-time delivery, Kevin Kelly, Khyber Pass, Kibera, Kickstarter, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, LNG terminal, low cost carrier, manufacturing employment, mass affluent, mass immigration, megacity, Mercator projection, Metcalfe’s law, microcredit, mittelstand, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, New Economic Geography, new economy, New Urbanism, off grid, offshore financial centre, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, openstreetmap, out of africa, Panamax, Parag Khanna, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, Plutocrats, plutocrats, post-oil, post-Panamax, private military company, purchasing power parity, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Scramble for Africa, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, Stuxnet, supply-chain management, sustainable-tourism, TaskRabbit, telepresence, the built environment, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, transaction costs, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, WikiLeaks, young professional, zero day
Chinese proclamations, like America’s, are vague and contradictory, while internal authorities jockey for influence, and success is rationalized after the fact. But China remains ruthlessly clear about one thing: Its power is focused on serving commercial interests and protecting the connectivity on which it depends. A simple equation is usually offered to explain China’s clear linkage between domestic and foreign policy: Energy security = economic growth = political stability = continuation of party rule. The formula breaks down without robust global connectivity: inflows and outflows. By contrast, both the Bush and the Obama administrations have defaulted to military posture as a proxy for influence, forgetting that America’s foreign policy failures from Vietnam to Iraq to Afghanistan have come from intervening rather than from not intervening.
Chevron, which has been operating in Asia for a century, develops almost half the gas reserves of Indonesia, Thailand, and Bangladesh and leads production of Western Australian gas as well—all mostly offshore reserves that require LNG tankers to ship.*4 An LNG terminal network and Asian gas pipeline grid, along with a gas-trading hub to replace rigid contracts with flexible pricing, would together represent the triumph of supply-demand complementarity over geopolitical division.*5 For Asians, “Drill, baby, drill” is a rallying cry for both energy security and regional stability. SOVEREIGNS OF THE SEA China’s state-owned oil companies and the American navy are not the only players in the maritime great game for undersea resources. Powerful and quasi-stateless global firms have also developed their own type of mobile sovereignty: very large floating structures. Shell’s Prelude, for example, is a floating liquefied natural gas platform three times the size of Sydney’s opera house and weighing five times more than America’s largest aircraft carrier.
Albert Einstein, clean water, energy security, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, invisible hand, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, post-oil, Ralph Nader, reserve currency, Rosa Parks, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Y2K
It takes about two barrels of oil in energy investment to produce three barrels of oil equivalent from those resources.42 The cost of Canadian non-conventional oil projects is so high that in May 2003, the oil industry publication Rigzone suggested, "President Bush, known for his religious faith, should be praying nightly that PetroCanada and other oil sands players find ways to cut their costs and boost US energy security."43 2. The environmental costs are horrendous and the process uses a tremendous amount of fresh water and also natural gas, both of which are in limited supply. 3. Although non-conventional oil is quite abundant, its rate of extraction is far too slow to meet the huge global energy demand. Dr. Colin Campbell estimates that combined Canadian and Venezuelan output of non-conventional oil will be 2.8 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2005, 3.6 mbd in 2012, and 4.6 mbd in 2020.
Making the Future: The Unipolar Imperial Moment by Noam Chomsky
Albert Einstein, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, collective bargaining, corporate governance, corporate personhood, creative destruction, deindustrialization, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Frank Gehry, full employment, Howard Zinn, Joseph Schumpeter, kremlinology, liberation theology, Long Term Capital Management, market fundamentalism, Mikhail Gorbachev, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, precariat, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, structural adjustment programs, The Great Moderation, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, working poor
But NATO quickly took on new missions, expanding to the east in violation of promises to Mikhail Gorbachev, a serious security threat to Russia, naturally raising international tensions. President Obama’s national security adviser, James Jones, NATO supreme allied commander in Europe from 2003 to 2006, advocates NATO expansion east and south, steps that would reinforce U.S. control over Middle East energy supplies (in technical terms, “safeguarding energy security”). He also champions a NATO response force, which will give the U.S.-run military alliance “much more flexible capability to do things rapidly at very long distances.” China may represent Washington’s greatest concern. The China-based Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which some analysts regard as a potential counterbalance to NATO, includes Russia and the Central Asian states. India, Pakistan and Iran are observers, and there is speculation about their joining.
Berlin Wall, Cass Sunstein, corporate governance, corporate personhood, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, energy security, Exxon Valdez, IBM and the Holocaust, joint-stock company, laissez-faire capitalism, market fundamentalism, Naomi Klein, new economy, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, South Sea Bubble, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, urban sprawl
John Gore, group vice president, government and public affairs, BP, letter to Rebecca O'Malley of Ecopledge, January 16, 2001. 28. Found at www.bpamoco/alaska/qanda/qanda.htm (print copy on file with the author). 29. Letters to Presidents Clinton, December 11, 2000, and Bush, March 20, 2001, from groups of scientists; Kenneth Whitten, retired research biologist, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, gave written testimony at a hearing on the Republican energy bill on July 11, 2001: U.S., Energy Security Act of 2001: Hearing on H.R. 2436 Before the House Committee on Resources: 107th Cong. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2002). 30. Sir John Browne, "The Case for Social Responsibility," presentation to the Annual Conference of Business for Social Responsibility, Boston, November 10, 1998. 31. The company's stated position has been that it cannot create a plan to drill unless and until the ANWR is opened to drilling.
50 Future Ideas You Really Need to Know by Richard Watson
23andMe, 3D printing, access to a mobile phone, Albert Einstein, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, BRICs, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, clean water, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, computer age, computer vision, crowdsourcing, dark matter, dematerialisation, digital Maoism, digital map, Elon Musk, energy security, failed state, future of work, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, germ theory of disease, happiness index / gross national happiness, hive mind, hydrogen economy, Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, life extension, Mark Shuttleworth, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, peak oil, personalized medicine, phenotype, precision agriculture, profit maximization, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Florida, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, semantic web, Skype, smart cities, smart meter, smart transportation, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, strong AI, Stuxnet, supervolcano, telepresence, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, Turing test, urban decay, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web application, women in the workforce, working-age population, young professional
He also believes that the US military will underwrite much of the cost of developing space-based solar power (Chapter 37) because it could solve the issue of supplying electricity to battlefield troops and robotic systems back on Earth. The Moon may represent the next frontier in terms of resources, bringing with it low-cost flights and permanent Moon colonies. A peaceful and abundant future that science-fiction writers and moviemakers have imagined for many years. Conversely, the Moon may represent a dangerous new frontier, where increasingly desperate nations, eager to secure energy security for their own people, battle it out with other nations to survive. Extrapolating again? The argument that we’re running out of much-needed minerals and other key resources seems fairly solid, but it’s quite possible that we’re doing what we often do—extrapolating, either from present conditions or past experience. At the moment we need certain resources, but in the future perhaps our need won’t be so great because we’ll have invented something totally new that’s dependent upon something else entirely, perhaps some substance that’s in abundant supply.
Global Financial Crisis by Noah Berlatsky
accounting loophole / creative accounting, asset-backed security, banking crisis, Bretton Woods, capital controls, Celtic Tiger, centre right, circulation of elites, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, corporate raider, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, deindustrialization, Doha Development Round, energy security, eurozone crisis, financial innovation, Food sovereignty, George Akerlof, God and Mammon, Gordon Gekko, housing crisis, illegal immigration, income inequality, market bubble, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, moral hazard, new economy, Northern Rock, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, regulatory arbitrage, reserve currency, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, South China Sea, structural adjustment programs, too big to fail, trade liberalization, transfer pricing, working poor
Overarching goals—to advance democracy, economic opportunity and security—are likely to remain unchanged, although the new president has emphasized in discussions with several Latin American presidents the importance of working together in partnership. In signaling a new approach, President [Barack] Obama has made clear that the United States does not have all the answers and can learn from the experience of regional leaders. A top priority is to work toward energy security in Latin America, and both energy and climate change are critical areas of future U.S.-Latin America cooperation. The upcoming Summit of the Americas will provide an opportunity to unveil new initiatives. The administration is committed to expanding trade beneﬁts to all countries, and will increase the emphasis on the labor and environmental provisions of trade agreements. There is also a desire to advance opportunity from the bottom up as well as to substantially increase aid to the region. 163 6 Viewpoint Islamic Banks Are Insulated from the Crisis Faiza Saleh Ambah Faiza Saleh Ambah is a Saudi journalist who writes for the Washington Post.
Brexit: What the Hell Happens Now?: The Facts About Britain's Bitter Divorce From Europe 2016 by Ian Dunt
In other treaties, the talks will not be so much about reducing standards as accepting the required policy of the negotiating government. In negotiations with India, for instance, immigration is likely to feature. Indian students often find it hard to come to the UK and that has not become any easier since May’s crackdown on student visas. Despite all the talk of cutting immigration, UK negotiators will come under strain to make concessions to Indian requests in return for a trade deal. With China, the concern will be energy security. Beijing is likely to demand a greater role in the provision of our energy infrastructure. May’s decision to authorise the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant, where the Chinese committed to one-third of the £18 billion cost, gave them a foothold in western Europe, as well as a stake in a new project at Sizewell and the possibility of building its own reactors at Bradwell, Essex. China will petition for more access to the market.
Bomb Scare by Joseph Cirincione
A first step to building the needed consensus could be a new international arrangement that would guarantee fuel cycle services (supply and disposal of fuel) to states that do not possess domestic capabilities. Such a mechanism would have to provide a credible international guarantee of fresh reactor fuel and removal of spent fuel at prices that offer an economic incentive to the recipient state. Such an arrangement would reduce, if not eliminate, the economic or energy security justification for states to pursue their own fuel cycle facilities, and in so doing would test states’ commitment to a non-weapons path. States that turn down reliable and economically attractive alternatives to costly new production facilities would engender suspicion of their intentions, inviting sanctions and other international pressures. The EU proposed such an arrangement as part of the solution to the Iranian crisis.
How Bad Are Bananas?: The Carbon Footprint of Everything by Mike Berners-Lee
air freight, carbon footprint, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Skype, sustainable-tourism, University of East Anglia
The figures do not include international aviation and shipping. For the U.K. that would add about 10 percent. 14. T. Jackson (2009), Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet. Earthscan, London. A recommended read. 15. Kilotons of TNT equivalent. 16. Duncan Clark in www.guardian.co.uk, “The carbon footprint of nuclear war” (2 January 2009), drawn from M.Z. Jacobson (2009), “Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security,” Energy Envir Sci 2, 148–173, DOI:10.1039/b809990c (first published as an Advance Article on the web on 1 December 2008: www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/pdf%20files/ReviewSolgw09.pdf). 17. The Three Trillion Dollar War by Joseph Stiglitz, a Colombia University professor who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001, and Linda Bilmes. See www.democracynow.org/2008/2/29/exclusive_the_three_trillion_dollar_war. 18.
agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, Exxon Valdez, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), oil shale / tar sands, stem cell, sustainable-tourism, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, urban planning, urban sprawl
Oil companies are also gearing up to drill in Arctic waters, and the B.C. government has been putting pressure on the federal government to lift bans on drilling and oil tanker traffic off the west coast. These spills are just a visual reminder of the damage that our fossil-fuel addiction wreaks on the environment every day. After all, if the oil weren’t being spilled, it would eventually be burned, spewing carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Environmental havoc is only one reason to conserve energy and switch to cleaner energy. Security is also a crucial issue when it comes to global oil supplies. From the costly war in Iraq to the instability of some of the main oil-producing countries, we’re seeing increasing problems with our reliance on this increasingly scarce energy resource. We don’t seem to be good at learning from the past. No matter what the technology or energy source, whether it’s fossil fuels or nuclear power, we must be prepared for the worst-case scenario before we proceed.
The Secret World of Oil by Ken Silverstein
business intelligence, clean water, corporate governance, corporate raider, Donald Trump, energy security, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Google Earth, offshore financial centre, oil shock, paper trading, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, WikiLeaks, Yom Kippur War
Political turmoil in the Middle East indirectly aided the oil industry’s overtures on Obiang’s behalf, as did Africa’s broader role as a growing oil exporter to the US. By 2000, the United States was already buying 15 percent of its oil imports from Africa, with Nigeria and Angola the two biggest individual suppliers and Equatorial Guinea poised to grow quickly. “Sub-Saharan Africa is an area of US vital interest, and is also of increasing strategic importance to the United States as it applies to American energy security needs,” Paul Michael Wihbey, then of the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies, told a congressional subcommittee in March of 2000.6 The September 11 attacks the following year led national security planners to call for greater diversification of imports away from the Middle East, especially toward non-OPEC suppliers in Africa and Central Asia. This was also a theme emphasized by the industry itself in seeking to build support for new alliances with dodgy regimes like Equatorial Guinea.
agricultural Revolution, Berlin Wall, business climate, Doha Development Round, energy security, food miles, information asymmetry, Kenneth Arrow, megacity, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shock, profit maximization, rent-seeking, Ronald Coase, Scramble for Africa, sovereign wealth fund, stem cell, Stewart Brand
The romantics prefer wind power, tidal power, and solar power, all of which are readily intelligible to ordinary citizens; nuclear power harnesses forces of nature only intelligible to a scientific elite. Unfortunately, however, wind, wave, and sun power are not yet scalable in the way that nuclear power is scalable. By far the most carbon-efficient advanced economy is France, which, following the oil shock of 1974, decided to achieve energy security by investing in nuclear power. France was able to do this because whereas elsewhere the political left was hostile to nuclear energy, in France it was nationalistic and so supported the idea of independence from imported oil. Wind, wave, and solar power may eventually become scalable (provided enough money is put into research), but for the moment pragmatists such as Stewart Brand, one of the pioneers of the environmental movement, have accepted that nuclear power is an essential part of the battle to contain global warming.
How to Run the World: Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance by Parag Khanna
Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, back-to-the-land, bank run, blood diamonds, Bob Geldof, borderless world, BRICs, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, charter city, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, commoditize, continuation of politics by other means, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, don't be evil, double entry bookkeeping, energy security, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, friendly fire, global village, Google Earth, high net worth, index fund, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, labour mobility, laissez-faire capitalism, Live Aid, Masdar, mass immigration, megacity, microcredit, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, New Urbanism, off grid, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, out of africa, Parag Khanna, private military company, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, sustainable-tourism, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, X Prize
Russia would then levy an export tax that it would use to enhance Eurasian oil and gas pipelines and power grids. China’s payback of the fuel subsidy would be directed toward investments in alternative energy technologies. UN veterans should be jealous. Students at the AID simulation are learning a far more accurate picture of the twenty-first-century landscape of power and influence than many diplomatic trainees today. Their role-playing exercise wasn’t the “real” world, and yet it was: Energy security and climate change are two sides of the same coin, not parallel conversations in bureaucratic silos. Seth Green, one of AID’s founders, realized early on that young change makers are inspired by alternatives to the UN system: “By playing not just Gordon Brown but also Bill Gates, students take on roles that allow them to navigate a much more complex world.” The bottom line, says Kate Willard, another AID leader, is that “there are far more players working on far more levels of global policy than any single organization can reflect.”
agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, British Empire, carbon footprint, collaborative economy, death of newspapers, delayed gratification, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, feminist movement, global village, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, labour mobility, Mahatma Gandhi, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, off grid, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, supply-chain management, surplus humans, the medium is the message, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, transaction costs, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, working poor, World Values Survey
The public dole had also grown considerably during the heyday of expansion and now had to be maintained with declining revenues. During the reign of Julius Caesar, nearly a third of the citizens of Rome were receiving some form of public assistance.75 The sheer logistical weight of maintaining a vast empire became increasingly costly. Garrisoning troops throughout the Mediterranean and Europe, maintaining roads, and administering annexed territories consumed more and more energy, while the net return in energy secured from the territories steadily dropped. Marginal returns had set in. In some instances, it cost Rome more money to manage certain colonies—Spain and England, for example—than revenue generated.76 No longer able to maintain its empire by new conquests and plunder, Rome was forced to look to the only other energy regime available to it: agriculture. The story of Rome’s gradual decline is intricately bound up with the waning fortunes of its agriculture production.
Entrepreneurs and managers will need to be educated to take advantage of cutting-edge business models, including open-source and networked commerce, performance contracting, distributed and collaborative research and development strategies, and sustainable low-carbon logistics and supply-chain management. The skill levels and managerial styles of the Third Industrial Revolution workforce will be qualitatively different from those of the workforce of the Second Industrial Revolution. A fully integrated intelligent intergrid allows each country to both produce its own energy and share any surpluses with neighboring countries in a “network” approach to assuring global energy security. When any given region enjoys a temporary surge or surplus in its renewable energy, that energy can be shared with regions that are facing a temporary lull or deficit. The Third Industrial Revolution leads to a new social vision where power itself is broadly distributed, encouraging unprecedented new levels of collaboration among peoples and nations. Just as the distributed communications revolution of the last decade spawned network ways of thinking, open-source sharing, and the democratization of communications, the Third Industrial Revolution follows suit with the democratization of energy.
airport security, Albert Einstein, Bob Geldof, BRICs, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, Climategate, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, decarbonisation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fear of failure, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Joseph Schumpeter, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, Naomi Klein, new economy, nuclear winter, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, union organizing, University of East Anglia
We think we live in scarcity and as a result often act from a place of fear. The truth is very different. We live on an abundant planet and our future progress is now only constrained by our thinking. There is further reinforcing logic at a system design level for solar and wind power. The fuel cost for generation is zero and the energy is available all over the planet, meaning all those imports and impacts on balance of payments are gone. This global energy security also largely eliminates a whole range of related geopolitical risks and the resulting military threats and instability, not to mention the enormous costs involved. The savings on offer are tangible and we don’t have to look hard to find real numbers. A fascinating peer reviewed study reported in the journal Foreign Policy pointed out that keeping aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf from 1976 to 2007 cost over $7 trillion.
The End of Growth by Jeff Rubin
Ayatollah Khomeini, Bakken shale, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, deglobalization, energy security, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, flex fuel, full employment, ghettoisation, global supply chain, Hans Island, happiness index / gross national happiness, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, illegal immigration, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, labour mobility, McMansion, Monroe Doctrine, moral hazard, new economy, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce, working poor, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game
this page: The US Energy Information Agency (EIA—not to be confused with the IEA, the International Energy Agency) identifies seven global oil transit choke points: the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Bab el Mandeb, the Turkish Straits (comprising the Bosporus and the Dardanelles), the Panama Canal and the Danish Straits. These narrow channels are part of shipping routes considered critical to global energy security. The Strait of Hormuz is the most important of these waterways. In 2011, roughly 35 percent of all seaborne-traded oil passed through the Strait, or nearly a fifth of the oil traded globally (www.eia.gov/cabs/world_oil_transit_chokepoints/full.html). this page: OPEC’s Middle Eastern members are Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The twelve-member group is rounded out by Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Nigeria and Venezuela.
The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths by Mariana Mazzucato
Apple II, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bretton Woods, California gold rush, call centre, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, cleantech, computer age, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demand response, deskilling, endogenous growth, energy security, energy transition, eurozone crisis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Financial Instability Hypothesis, full employment, G4S, Growth in a Time of Debt, Hyman Minsky, incomplete markets, information retrieval, intangible asset, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, natural language processing, new economy, offshore financial centre, Philip Mirowski, popular electronics, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, renewable energy credits, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, smart grid, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trickle-down economics, Washington Consensus, William Shockley: the traitorous eight
As such, the need for the agency as well as conflict over what is ‘too early’ will likely continue to be a subject of debate. It is also interesting to consider the degree to which the fact that DARPA operates under the banner of ‘national security’ rather than ‘economic performance’, contributes to the covering up of the State as a key economic actor. Maybe a ‘solution’ to ARPA-E is to operate under the banner of ‘energy security’. Like DARPA, ARPA-E doesn’t create its own research agenda; instead, it invites researchers from academia and industry to explore high-risk ideas, setting an agenda through collaboration and collective knowledge of the state-of-the-art and realm of possibilities. Project funding draws from government and business sources, indicating that its R&D agenda attracts funding from multiple stakeholders (Hourihan and Stepp 2011).
Postcapitalism: A Guide to Our Future by Paul Mason
Alfred Russel Wallace, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Basel III, basic income, Bernie Madoff, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, bitcoin, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business process, butterfly effect, call centre, capital controls, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, Claude Shannon: information theory, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, Corn Laws, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Graeber, deglobalization, deindustrialization, deskilling, discovery of the americas, Downton Abbey, drone strike, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, eurozone crisis, factory automation, financial repression, Firefox, Fractional reserve banking, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, future of work, game design, income inequality, inflation targeting, informal economy, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, late capitalism, low skilled workers, market clearing, means of production, Metcalfe's law, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage debt, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, Pearl River Delta, post-industrial society, precariat, price mechanism, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, reserve currency, RFID, Richard Stallman, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, secular stagnation, sharing economy, Stewart Brand, structural adjustment programs, supply-chain management, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Transnistria, union organizing, universal basic income, urban decay, urban planning, Vilfredo Pareto, wages for housework, women in the workforce
From social housing in cities blighted by speculative development to cycle lanes or healthcare provision, even the most progressive infrastructure designs are moulded around the interests of the rich – and assume the market will last for ever. As a result, infrastructure planning remains one of the disciplines least transformed by networked thinking. This needs to change. In addition, because of the global nature of the problems we face, the state has to ‘own’ the agenda for responses to the challenges of climate change, demographic ageing, energy security and migration. That is to say, whatever micro-level actions we take to alleviate these risks, only national governments and multilateral agreements can actually solve them. The most pressing issue, if states are to help drive the transition to a new economic system, is debt. In today’s world, developed countries are paralysed by the size of their debts. These are, as we saw in chapter 9, projected to become stratospheric as a result of ageing populations.
Utopias: A Brief History From Ancient Writings to Virtual Communities by Howard P. Segal
1960s counterculture, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, complexity theory, David Brooks, death of newspapers, dematerialisation, deskilling, energy security, European colonialism, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, future of journalism, garden city movement, germ theory of disease, Golden Gate Park, invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John Markoff, John von Neumann, knowledge economy, liberation theology, Louis Pasteur, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, means of production, Nicholas Carr, Nikolai Kondratiev, out of africa, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, transcontinental railway, traveling salesman, union organizing, urban planning, War on Poverty, Whole Earth Catalog
Yet the NRC does not routinely require plants to review their seismic risks as they seek to renew their operating licenses for an additional twenty years.42 Nevertheless, twenty-one companies now expect to seek permission to build thirty-four new plants, ranging in location from New York to Texas to Idaho, and factories are being built in Indiana and Louisiana to manufacture plant parts. Much of the renewed interest derives from the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which “is stuffed with generous subsidies for nuclear power and other alternatives to fossil fuels.” As the head of General Electric, Jeffrey Immelt, has argued, “it’s hard to believe simultaneously in energy security and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions without believing in nuclear power.”43 Increasing numbers of environmentalists are conceding this point, among them the famous Stewart Brand, creator of The Whole Earth Catalog. Brand confessed to his traditional opponents: “I’m sorry. I was wrong, you were right. I’m sorry.” Brand has nevertheless maintained his utopian propensities despite this Utopia Reconsidered 153 change of heart and has embraced a decentralized corporate vision of information technologies and computer networks that nicely complements those of capitalist leaders such as Immelt.
Albert Einstein, banking crisis, Bayesian statistics, cognitive bias, end world poverty, endowment effect, energy security, experimental subject, framing effect, hindsight bias, impulse control, John Nash: game theory, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, pattern recognition, placebo effect, Ponzi scheme, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, ultimatum game, World Values Survey
This book was written in the hope that as science develops, we will recognize its application to the most pressing questions of human existence. For nearly a century, the moral relativism of science has given faith-based religion—that great engine of ignorance and bigotry—a nearly uncontested claim to being the only universal framework for moral wisdom. As a result, the most powerful societies on earth spend their time debating issues like gay marriage when they should be focused on problems like nuclear proliferation, genocide, energy security, climate change, poverty, and failing schools. Granted, the practical effects of thinking in terms of a moral landscape cannot be our only reason for doing so—we must form our beliefs about reality based on what we think is actually true. But few people seem to recognize the dangers posed by thinking that there are no true answers to moral questions. If our well-being depends upon the interaction between events in our brains and events in the world, and there are better and worse ways to secure it, then some cultures will tend to produce lives that are more worth living than others; some political persuasions will be more enlightened than others; and some world views will be mistaken in ways that cause needless human misery.
China into Africa: trade, aid, and influence by Robert I. Rotberg
barriers to entry, BRICs, colonial rule, corporate governance, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, global supply chain, global value chain, income inequality, Khartoum Gordon, labour market flexibility, land reform, megacity, microcredit, offshore financial centre, one-China policy, out of africa, Pearl River Delta, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Scramble for Africa, South China Sea, special economic zone, structural adjustment programs, trade route, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
China currently lacks the ability to protect oil shipments on the high seas and through the Straits of Malacca. In the event of a conflict involving Taiwan, it probably fears that the United States would use its naval power to disrupt the flow of oil to China. Consequently, China will probably seek first to extend its naval capacity into the Straits of Malacca and then to the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, which are more essential to Beijing’s energy security. Because of the African coast’s greater distance from China, protecting its interests in the sea lanes around Africa will be a lower priority. For the time being, China will rely on the projection of soft power in the region. Nevertheless, China is almost certainly planning a naval force that eventually can protect the sea lanes around and from Africa. Doing so will inevitably result in closer collaboration between the PLA navy and African leaders and port facilities.
Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism From Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda by John Mueller
airport security, Albert Einstein, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Doomsday Clock, energy security, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, long peace, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, oil shock, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, side project, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, Yom Kippur War
., 269n.23 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), nuclear, 119–121 North Korea American-led forced invading, 247n.27 attention, 108, 238 axis of evil, 144 calm policy discussion, 151, 152–153 deterrence, 262n.19 “eating problem,” 152 hysteria, 263n.25 invasion of South Korea, 49 nuclear weapon, x proliferation, 93 proliferation fixation, 135–137 sanctions, 136, 145 “supreme priority” of, 149–150 Nth country problem, nuclear weapons, 91 nuclear age, verge of new, x nuclear arsenals, 64–65, 145, 237 nuclear bomb, 17, 269n.16 “The Nuclear Bomb of Islam,” bin Laden, 211–212 nuclear crisis, Cuba, 39 nuclear diffusion, 237 nuclear energy, security, 139–140 “nuclear era,” Hiroshima, ix nuclear explosion, 61–62, 181, 243n.9 nuclear fears classic cold war, 56–57 declining again, 60–61 On the Beach, 57 reviving in early 1980s, 58–60 subsiding in 1960s and 1970s, 57–58 nuclear fission bomb, probability of attack, 267n.48 nuclear forensics, 155, 164, 190, 194, 264n.6 nuclear fuel, cartelization, 260n.28 nuclear metaphysics, deterrence, 63–67 nuclear proliferation, xiii, 89 nuclear radiation, dirty bomb, 18 nuclear reactor meltdown, Chernobyl, 7 Nuclear Regulatory Agency, radiation, 7 The Nuclear Revolution, Mandelbaum, 246n.7 nuclear sting operation, 194 Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, Kristof, 181 nuclear tipping point, Brookings Institution, 93–94 nuclear virginity, Canada, 112 nuclear war, x, 64 nuclear weapons.
A Sea in Flames: The Deepwater Horizon Oil Blowout by Carl Safina
big-box store, clean water, cognitive dissonance, energy security, Exxon Valdez, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Piper Alpha, Ronald Reagan
It all sounds so obvious, and too familiar. And that’s the problem: the things that should have us on fire demanding change somehow fail to rouse we, the people, to the passion that could free us from our dependence on our pushers. Senator John Kerry, one of the first sponsors of the Senate’s energy bill, back before the blowout, seems to share such sentiments. He believes America is confronting three interrelated crises: an energy security crisis, a climate crisis, and an economic crisis. He says our best response to all three “is a bold, comprehensive bill that accelerates green innovation and creates millions of new jobs as we develop and produce the next generation of renewable power sources, alternative fuels and energy-efficient cars, homes and workplaces.” But ironically, because some Republican governors—such as Florida’s Charlie Crist and California’s Arnold Schwarzenegger—are withdrawing support for expanding drilling off their coasts, Republican support for an energy bill—wafer thin at its apogee—is dissolving faster than dispersant-drenched oil.
David Mitchell: Back Story by David Mitchell
(I wonder if that’s where the biscuit got its name. I’m suspicious about that biscuit’s name. It’s like Stinking Bishop: recent, yet quickly adopted as a go-to reference for those wishing to be cosily humorous. It got its Alan Bennett licence too early and easily. I suspect the advertising agency was involved.) I adjust the collar of my jacket, massaging a slightly jarred wrist from my high-energy security check. It’s a spring day and slightly too warm for a jacket really – certainly once I get walking. Unless the temperature is absolutely Siberian, a brisk walk always warms me up, especially when I’ve got a jacket on. Or at least warms up the middle of my back, which then sweats through my shirt. So I have to wear a jacket to hide that. My walk begins on the exterior staircase from my flat, which I have to descend carefully in case there’s sick or a used needle.
Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else by Chrystia Freeland
activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, assortative mating, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Basel III, battle of ideas, Bernie Madoff, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, BRICs, business climate, call centre, carried interest, Cass Sunstein, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, commoditize, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, don't be evil, double helix, energy security, estate planning, experimental subject, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Gini coefficient, global village, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Gordon Gekko, Guggenheim Bilbao, haute couture, high net worth, income inequality, invention of the steam engine, job automation, John Markoff, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, liberation theology, light touch regulation, linear programming, London Whale, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, NetJets, new economy, Occupy movement, open economy, Peter Thiel, place-making, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, postindustrial economy, Potemkin village, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, rent-seeking, Rod Stewart played at Stephen Schwarzman birthday party, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, short selling, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Kuznets, Solar eclipse in 1919, sovereign wealth fund, stem cell, Steve Jobs, the new new thing, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tony Hsieh, too big to fail, trade route, trickle-down economics, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, wage slave, Washington Consensus, winner-take-all economy, zero-sum game
Walter, Carl E., and Fraser J. T. Howie. Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise. John Wiley & Sons, 2011. Winters, Jeffrey A. Oligarchy. Cambridge University Press, 2011. Wolf, Martin. Why Globalization Works. Yale University Press, 2004. Yergin, Daniel. The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. Simon & Schuster, 1991. ———. The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World. Penguin Press, 2011. Zakaria, Fareed. The Post-American World. W. W. Norton, 2008. INDEX The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. To find the corresponding locations in the text of this digital version, please use the “search” function on your e-reader. Note that not all terms may be searchable. Abramovich, Roman, 107 Abrams, Dan, 164 academics, 264, 267–69 Acemoglu, Daron, 21–22, 279–80 Ackermann, Josef, 254 Ackman, Bill, 51 active inertia, 145, 167–69 actors, 108 Ad Age, 50 Adderall, 52 Africa, 66, 76, 146 agency problem, 138 AIDS, 76, 246 AIG, 27, 101, 143 Akhmetov, Rinat, 103 Alger, Horatio, 45 algorithmic trading, 146 Allen, Herb, 68 Allen, Paul, 43 Allstate, 64 Alpha, 143 alpha geeks, 46–51, 92, 94 Amazon, 69, 234 Ambani, Mukesh, 199 Ambani family, 235 American Bar Association Journal, 107 American colonies, 11–12 Anderson, Chris, 68, 100 Anderson, Keith, 153–55 Andersson, Mats, 138 Animal Farm (Orwell), 90 Apollo, 142 Apple, 25, 54, 55, 104, 143 iPhone, 28 iPod, 24–26 Applied Materials, 64 Arcelor, 191 ArcelorMittal, 59 architects, 103–4 Ariely, Dan, xii, 273–74 ARK (Absolute Return for Kids), 74 Arkady, 110 Arthur, W.
Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet by Jeffrey Sachs
agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, British Empire, business process, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, Edward Glaeser, energy security, failed state, Gini coefficient, Haber-Bosch Process, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, labour mobility, low skilled workers, mass immigration, microcredit, oil shale / tar sands, old age dependency ratio, peak oil, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, Skype, statistical model, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, unemployed young men, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working-age population
The Bush administration has been more consumed by the scramble rather than by cooperative global investments in a long-term future. The administration’s outlook has been dominated by the oil industry, not by a broader perspective on sustainable energy potential or global sustainable development more generally. The Iraq War has its roots in the misapplied quest of the Bush administration for U.S. energy security, though the war has only deepened the insecurity. Yet the U.S. fixation on Middle East oil goes back more than half a century to the CIA-backed coup that overthrew the prime minister of Iran in 1953 and a seemingly endless series of CIA and military misadventures since then. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent in military efforts to ensure the security (for the United States) of Middle East oil fields, swamping the funds that have been applied to developing long-term energy alternatives.
The Land Grabbers: The New Fight Over Who Owns the Earth by Fred Pearce
Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, big-box store, blood diamonds, British Empire, Buy land – they’re not making it any more, Cape to Cairo, carbon footprint, clean water, corporate raider, credit crunch, Deng Xiaoping, Elliott wave, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, farmers can use mobile phones to check market prices, index fund, Jeff Bezos, land reform, land tenure, Mahatma Gandhi, market fundamentalism, megacity, Mohammed Bouazizi, Nikolai Kondratiev, offshore financial centre, out of africa, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, smart cities, structural adjustment programs, too big to fail, urban planning, urban sprawl, WikiLeaks
But at any rate her view was that “we are on an up-cycle of commodity prices, and we see resource conflicts around 2020.” These stories of waves and cycles determining history sound flaky. And the company is inclined to oversell its insight. Its website boasts that Murrin and Payne peered into their geopolitical crystal balls to get ahead of the game by spotting “in late 2007 . . . food security as the next energy security.” The phrase has a ring to it, but this wasn’t so much unique insight as fanning the flames of growing panic. In July 2007, the seers at the BBC were already writing headlines about “food prices on the rise and rise” and relaying “doomsday predictions of the price of staple foods.” But a cynic would suggest this is how the masters of the universe operate. No profound insight, just riding the waves and cycles.
Happy City: Transforming Our Lives Through Urban Design by Charles Montgomery
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, agricultural Revolution, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon footprint, centre right, City Beautiful movement, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, East Village, edge city, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, experimental subject, Frank Gehry, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, license plate recognition, McMansion, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, New Urbanism, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, science of happiness, Seaside, Florida, Silicon Valley, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transit-oriented development, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban sprawl, wage slave, white flight, World Values Survey, zero-sum game, Zipcar
alarmed the insurance industry: Fogarty, David, “Climate Change Growing Risk for Insurers: Industry,” Planet Ark, January 20, 2011, http://planetark.org/wen/60947 (accessed January 21, 2011). It would take nine planets: WWF, Zoological Society of London, and Global Footprint Network. Living Planet Report 2008 (Gland, Switzerland: World Wide Fund For Nature, 2008). in the next twenty years: Froggatt, Antony, et al., “Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic risks and opportunities for business,” white paper, London: Lloyd’s, 2010; Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Scarcity, “2010 Peak Oil Report,” 2010; Hess, Werner, “Energy for Tomorrow’s World—Trends, Scenarios, Tomorrow’s Markets,” Allianz/Dresdner Bank AG, Frankfurt/M., Germany, 2005); International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2008 (Paris: IEA Publications, 2010); Hirsch, Robert L., “Peaking of World Oil Production: Recent Forecasts,” National Energy Technology Laboratory, 2007; U.S.
Sixty Days and Counting by Kim Stanley Robinson
dumpster diving, energy security, full employment, Golden Gate Park, hiring and firing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), McMansion, megacity, mutually assured destruction, off grid, place-making, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Saturday Night Live, urban decay, Works Progress Administration
Between that and the environmental objections, there would be no lack of opponents to such a plan. But the Navy, Frank suggested, had no reason to fear critics of any stripe. They did what Congress and the president asked them to do. Gamble concurred. Then, without saying so outright, he conveyed to Frank the impression that the Navy brain trust might be happy to be tasked with some of the nation’s energy security. These days, global military strategy and technology had combined in a way that made navies indispensable but unglamorous; they functioned like giant water taxis for the other services. Ambition to do more was common in the secretary’s office, and over at Annapolis. “Great,” Frank said. While listening to this artful description, vague but suggestive, something had occurred to him: “When there are blackouts, could the nuclear fleet serve as emergency generators?”
Planet Ponzi by Mitch Feierstein
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, break the buck, centre right, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, disintermediation, diversification, Donald Trump, energy security, eurozone crisis, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, Flash crash, floating exchange rates, frictionless, frictionless market, high net worth, High speed trading, illegal immigration, income inequality, interest rate swap, invention of agriculture, light touch regulation, Long Term Capital Management, mega-rich, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage debt, negative equity, Northern Rock, obamacare, offshore financial centre, oil shock, pensions crisis, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, price stability, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, value at risk, yield curve
Those sums are trivial in relation to the amounts now in question. Italy owes more than $2 trillion, Japan around $10 trillion. Italy is, as you may have noticed, a low-growth, poorly governed, somewhat corrupt country with an organized crime problem and a wholly untested and unelected government. Japan is, as you may have noticed, an earthquake-prone country with an aging population, a stagnant economy, a two-decades-old problem with deflation, no energy security, no raw materials, a huge and increasingly assertive neighbor, and a political class that seems perennially unable to implement radical change. Oh yes, and a nuclear mess that isn’t cleared up and seems all set for a tragic replay. As for the purported health of the private sector: don’t be fooled. At the time of writing, Bank of America, which is the largest bank by assets in the United States, has a stock market capitalization equal to just 25% of its book value.7 A company’s book value is the total accounting value of its assets less the total accounting value of its liabilities.
Business Lessons From a Radical Industrialist by Ray C. Anderson
Albert Einstein, banking crisis, carbon footprint, centralized clearinghouse, clean water, cleantech, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, dematerialisation, distributed generation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fear of failure, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invisible hand, late fees, Mahatma Gandhi, market bubble, music of the spheres, Negawatt, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old-boy network, peak oil, renewable energy credits, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, supply-chain management, urban renewal, Y2K
. … mobilize the market by putting a price on carbon with upstream cap-and-auction; end public subsidies of fossil fuels; and offer a billion-dollar “platinum carrot” award, over five years, for transformative technologies that help America reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Allocate a billion dollars yearly to states and localities that adopt policies that help the nation meet its carbon reduction and energy security goals. 6. … set off an economic boom by creating millions of new green jobs economywide. Establish a program of voluntary training and service for disadvantaged young people. Begin a rural renaissance in which farms and rural communities become the nation’s chief suppliers of energy. 7. … prevent “carbon lock-in” by banning the construction of new coal-fired power plants that are not able to capture and store their greenhouse gas emissions; and do not provide public subsidies to new carbon-intensive fuels, such as liquid fuels from coal. 8. … rapidly increase CAFE standards for all U.S. vehicles, starting now. 9. … rebuild the federal capacity to lead by appointing (or reappointing) bona fide climate experts to climate-critical positions within the federal government, and rescind the Bush administration’s executive order that permits political oversight of (and interference with) scientific reports. 10. … assert your executive authority to move the nation forward when rapid action is required for the public interest.
Cybersecurity: What Everyone Needs to Know by P. W. Singer, Allan Friedman
4chan, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blood diamonds, borderless world, Brian Krebs, business continuity plan, Chelsea Manning, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, drone strike, Edward Snowden, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fault tolerance, global supply chain, Google Earth, Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, John Markoff, Julian Assange, Khan Academy, M-Pesa, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, packet switching, Peace of Westphalia, pre–internet, profit motive, RAND corporation, ransomware, RFC: Request For Comment, risk tolerance, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, Steve Jobs, Stuxnet, uranium enrichment, We are Anonymous. We are Legion, web application, WikiLeaks, zero day, zero-sum game
This spirit led the US Chamber of Commerce to lead the successful charge against cybersecurity regulation in 2012. Some cybersecurity standards and regulations already exist, particularly in regulated industries, but they often fail to deliver the needed security gains. In the power grid, for example, standards developed jointly between industry and regulators in 2008 proved to be inadequate just three years later. Michael Assente, an energy security expert who runs an organization for security auditors, explained, “The standards have not been implemented with a strong sense of risk in mind. The complexity of enacting a new regulatory regime has taken our collective eye off security and turned it toward administrative issues and compliance.” This focus on compliance can turn security from an iterative, adaptive process to an organizational routine disconnected from the risks faced.
Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War by P. W. Singer, August Cole
3D printing, Admiral Zheng, augmented reality, British Empire, digital map, energy security, Firefox, glass ceiling, global reserve currency, Google Earth, Google Glasses, IFF: identification friend or foe, Just-in-time delivery, Maui Hawaii, new economy, old-boy network, RAND corporation, reserve currency, RFID, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, stealth mode startup, trade route, Wall-E, We are Anonymous. We are Legion, zero day, zero-sum game
And yet, then, we must give the Americans a means to save face when defeat is to be accepted. As Master Sun advised, ‘We must build our foes a golden bridge to escape across.’ ” The economics minister responded. “Admiral, the question of what to do with the Hawaii zone is as simple as it would be on any card table. You do not just return to your foes what they have lost. They must give you a proper exchange for it. Both our energy security needs and the honor of the nation deserve that. And, indeed, even if you are right, and the Americans do make another attempt before they accept they have lost, this is for the best. You do not want someone to flee the table; you want him to remain and play the game, hand after hand, until his wallet is empty and his will is gone.” The meeting continued in circles like this. At eighty minutes in, Wang’s aide came over to him as planned.
Cooked: A Natural History of Transformation by Michael Pollan
biofilm, bioinformatics, Columbian Exchange, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, dematerialisation, Drosophila, energy security, Gary Taubes, Hernando de Soto, hygiene hypothesis, Louis Pasteur, Mason jar, microbiome, peak oil, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Steven Pinker, women in the workforce
WOLFE, The Viral Storm: The Dawn of a New Pandemic Age NORMAN DAVIES, Vanished Kingdoms: The History of Half-Forgotten Europe MICHAEL LEWIS, Boomerang: The Meltdown Tour STEVEN PINKER, The Better Angels of Our Nature: The Decline of Violence in History and Its Causes ROBERT TRIVERS, Deceit and Self-Deception: Fooling Yourself the Better to Fool Others THOMAS PENN, Winter King: The Dawn of Tudor England DANIEL YERGIN, The Quest: Energy, Security and the Remaking of the Modern World MICHAEL MOORE, Here Comes Trouble: Stories from My Life ALI SOUFAN, The Black Banners: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda JASON BURKE, The 9/11 Wars TIMOTHY D. WILSON, Redirect: The Surprising New Science of Psychological Change IAN KERSHAW, The End: Hitler’s Germany, 1944-45 T M DEVINE, To the Ends of the Earth: Scotland’s Global Diaspora, 1750-2010 CATHERINE HAKIM, Honey Money: The Power of Erotic Capital DOUGLAS EDWARDS, I’m Feeling Lucky: The Confessions of Google Employee Number 59 JOHN BRADSHAW, In Defence of Dogs CHRIS STRINGER, The Origin of Our Species LILA AZAM ZANGANEH, The Enchanter: Nabokov and Happiness DAVID STEVENSON, With Our Backs to the Wall: Victory and Defeat in 1918 EVELYN JUERS, House of Exile: War, Love and Literature, from Berlin to Los Angeles HENRY KISSINGER, On China MICHIO KAKU, Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 DAVID ABULAFIA, The Great Sea: A Human History of the Mediterranean JOHN GRIBBIN, The Reason Why: The Miracle of Life on Earth ANATOL LIEVEN, Pakistan: A Hard Country WILLIAM D COHAN, Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World JOSHUA FOER, Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering Everything SIMON BARON-COHEN, Zero Degrees of Empathy: A New Theory of Human Cruelty MANNING MARABLE, Malcolm X: A Life of Reinvention DAVID DEUTSCH, The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations that Transform the World DAVID EDGERTON, Britain’s War Machine: Weapons, Resources and Experts in the Second World War JOHN KASARDA AND GREG LINDSAY, Aerotropolis: The Way We’ll Live Next DAVID GILMOUR, The Pursuit of Italy: A History of a Land, its Regions and their Peoples NIALL FERGUSON, Civilization: The West and the Rest TIM FLANNERY, Here on Earth: A New Beginning ROBERT BICKERS, The Scramble for China: Foreign Devils in the Qing Empire, 1832-1914 MARK MALLOCH-BROWN, The Unfinished Global Revolution: The Limits of Nations and the Pursuit of a New Politics KING ABDULLAH OF JORDAN, Our Last Best Chance: The Pursuit of Peace in a Time of Peril ELIZA GRISWOLD, The Tenth Parallel: Dispatches from the Faultline between Christianity and Islam BRIAN GREENE, The Hidden Reality: Parallel Universes and the Deep Laws of the Cosmos THE BEGINNING Let the conversation begin...
Vertical: The City From Satellites to Bunkers by Stephen Graham
1960s counterculture, Berlin Wall, Buckminster Fuller, Buy land – they’re not making it any more, Chelsea Manning, Commodity Super-Cycle, creative destruction, deindustrialization, digital map, drone strike, Edward Glaeser, Edward Snowden, energy security, Frank Gehry, ghettoisation, Google Earth, Gunnar Myrdal, high net worth, housing crisis, Howard Zinn, illegal immigration, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, late capitalism, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, megastructure, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, new economy, New Urbanism, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, planetary scale, Plutocrats, plutocrats, post-industrial society, Project Plowshare, rent control, Richard Florida, Right to Buy, Ronald Reagan, Skype, South China Sea, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, trickle-down economics, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, white flight, WikiLeaks, William Langewiesche
Such peaks have been proven to lead to major power blackouts.63 Behind the unprecedented blackout across the megalopolitan Northeastern US on 14 August 2003 – the most powerful example thus far – lay an overstretched electricity system that was particularly overburdened with demands from air-conditioning systems.64 The extraordinary rates of growth in air-con use force the use of extra fossil fuels for electricity generation, increase related threats to energy security, lead to the release of more particulate matter and greenhouse gasses, and increase the risk of major power outages. The vicious circle here seems unbreakable: more air conditioning; exaggerated climate change–related temperature rises; increasingly intolerable urban heat-islands; further demands for air-con environments; and so on. Stan Cox pinpoints the spirals clearly: ‘Turning buildings into refrigerators burns fossil fuels, which emits greenhouse gases, which raises global temperatures, which creates a need for – you guessed it – more air-conditioning.’65 Such feedback loops add further to the vulnerabilities faced by marginalised urban groups, who have no choice but to endure urban heat-islands without air conditioning.
anti-communist, back-to-the-land, bank run, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, capital asset pricing model, capital controls, centre right, Chelsea Manning, clean water, collateralized debt obligation, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Donald Trump, energy security, Exxon Valdez, invisible hand, means of production, Myron Scholes, offshore financial centre, random walk, Ronald Reagan, sensible shoes, transfer pricing, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, Yogi Berra
But I digress. The Women of the Storm ran these slick, slick, slick ads. I want you to take a look at one. It opens with Mother Nature, that harpy, ripping up the coastline. The winds howl. The trees bend and waves crash while a voice tells us, “Crippling storms . . . hurricanes . . .” The ad continues: These storms and hurricanes are not threatening birds or fish but . . . “our energy security.” It’s that beast Nature against the defenseless . . . oil industry. An odd message for a charity. But it’s done so slickly, you really have to watch twice, and slowly, to know you’ve been greased. The actress Sandra Bullock even lent her voice to one. The Nature-did-this-to-us campaign has expanded. Women of the Storm boasts a new deal that will put its “public service announcements” on over six thousand movie screens.
Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, balance sheet recession, bank run, banking crisis, Basel III, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, British Empire, capital controls, carbon footprint, Celtic Tiger, central bank independence, centre right, collapse of Lehman Brothers, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, dark matter, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, disintermediation, energy security, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, eurozone crisis, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial repression, floating exchange rates, forensic accounting, forward guidance, full employment, G4S, ghettoisation, global rebalancing, global reserve currency, hiring and firing, inflation targeting, Irish property bubble, Just-in-time delivery, labour market flexibility, light touch regulation, London Whale, Long Term Capital Management, margin call, market clearing, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mini-job, mittelstand, moral hazard, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, mutually assured destruction, Myron Scholes, negative equity, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, open economy, paradox of thrift, Pearl River Delta, pension reform, price mechanism, price stability, profit motive, quantitative easing, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, race to the bottom, regulatory arbitrage, reserve currency, reshoring, Right to Buy, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, shareholder value, sovereign wealth fund, The Chicago School, the payments system, too big to fail, trade route, transaction costs, two tier labour market, unorthodox policies, uranium enrichment, urban planning, value at risk, working-age population, zero-sum game
Dotted around this Arctic desert are drills sucking gas from the Urengoy field, which lies beneath a thick layer of permafrost nearly 2 kilometres deep. It’s the second biggest gas field in the world, the largest field in one country – 10 trillion cubic metres of gas, enough to meet all of Britain’s needs for an entire century. Twice in the past decade, in 2006 and 2009, spats between Russia and Ukraine over the price of natural gas have led Russia to turn off the tap, which has also affected gas supplies to other European countries. ‘Energy security is a complicated matter and it’s a two-way street,’ says Alexander Medvedev. ‘We are as dependent upon our customers as they are on us,’ he says. I ask him if Gazprom is threatening western Europe. ‘We are not threatening anyone, we are simply saying that to call for the role of Russian gas to be artificially diminished is a very dangerous thing.’ That sounded threatening enough to me. There is a manufactured bleakness to Novi Urengoy.
Poisoned Wells: The Dirty Politics of African Oil by Nicholas Shaxson
Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, business climate, central bank independence, clean water, colonial rule, energy security, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Hernando de Soto, income per capita, inflation targeting, Martin Wolf, mobile money, offshore financial centre, old-boy network, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game
No wonder their citizens are angry. 232 Conclusion If the oil money was paid to their citizens directly, bad money would become good, and they would hate us less. And if, as the Elf affair shows, poor oil states can seriously threaten our own democracies, then distributing the money to African citizens neutralizes this threat, by deflating these mischief-making balloons of oil cash. As a bonus, citizens would be less likely to disrupt the industry that directly feeds them. This would enhance the West’s energy security. Could this really be put into practice? African politicians would detest it, for it would hand “their” money to ordinary Africans. Even today’s African “civil society” activists might oppose it: many of them make a living from the current set-up and might lose out in such a revolution. “IMF Working Paper tosh!” sniffed a well-known member of Nigerian civil society to whom I mentioned the 2003 IMF Working Paper.
Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto
affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Berlin Wall, Brownian motion, carbon footprint, Cepheid variable, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, commoditize, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, desegregation, double helix, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fudge factor, ghettoisation, Harlow Shapley and Heber Curtis, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, sharing economy, smart grid, Solar eclipse in 1919, stem cell, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, University of East Anglia, War on Poverty, white flight, Winter of Discontent, working poor, yellow journalism, zero-sum game
Earth’s climate is changing and there is concern about the potentially adverse effects of these changes on life on the planet. Please set out what your positions are on the following measures that have been proposed to address global climate change: a cap-and-trade system, a carbon tax, increased fuel-economy standards, firm carbon emissions targets, and/or research? What other policies would you support? 3. Energy. Many policy makers and scientists say energy security and sustainability are major problems facing the United States during this century. What policies would you support to meet demand for energy while ensuring an economically and environmentally sustainable future? 4. Education. A comparison of fifteen-year-olds in thirty wealthy nations found that average science scores among US students ranked seventeenth, while average US math scores ranked twenty-fourth.
Hopes and Prospects by Noam Chomsky
Albert Einstein, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, colonial rule, corporate personhood, Credit Default Swap, cuban missile crisis, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deskilling, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Firefox, Howard Zinn, Hyman Minsky, invisible hand, liberation theology, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, moral hazard, new economy, nuremberg principles, one-state solution, open borders, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, structural adjustment programs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus
Security analyst Robert Dreyfuss describes former marine commandant Jones, Obama’s new national security adviser, as “Obama’s hawk,” who “seems least compatible with Obama” among his hawkish team—though there is little reason beyond “hope” to justify the judgment about compatibility. Jones, Dreyfuss observes, “is a fierce advocate of NATO expansion,” Clinton’s policy that reneged on gentlemen’s agreements with Gorbachev, guaranteeing confrontation with an encircled Russia. Jones urged that NATO should move to the south as well as the east, to expand U.S. control over Middle East energy supplies (in preferred terminology, “safeguarding energy security”). He also advocates a “NATO response force,” which will give the U.S.-run military alliance “much more flexible capability to do things rapidly at very long distances.” Europe has been reluctant, but will probably succumb to pressure from a militaristic and expansionist administration in Washington.36 The new director of national intelligence is Dennis Blair, former head of the U.S. Pacific Command.
air freight, banking crisis, big-box store, blood diamonds, Bretton Woods, California gold rush, carbon footprint, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, dematerialisation, employer provided health coverage, energy security, European colonialism, Firefox, Food sovereignty, Ford paid five dollars a day, full employment, global supply chain, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, intermodal, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, liberation theology, McMansion, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, Ralph Nader, renewable energy credits, Silicon Valley, special economic zone, supply-chain management, the built environment, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, union organizing, Wall-E, Whole Earth Review, Zipcar
In the United States, a nationally active group called the Business Alliance for Local Living Economies (BALLE) unites businesses working to promote local economies and community selfreliance: not just a local food system, but local energy (think solar cells and wind turbines), local clothing manufacturing, and green buildings from local materials.129 In this model, a global economy still exists, but as a network of locally sustainable economies that trade in products they can’t produce themselves. Trade—national or international—isn’t the goal, but a means to promote well-being, good jobs, a healthy environment. Judy Wicks, one of the founders of the local food movement and of BALLE, even makes a connection between local self-reliance and security: “Wars are often fought over access to basic needs like energy, food, and water. Helping every region achieve food security, energy security, and water security builds the foundation for world peace. Self-reliant societies are less likely to start wars than those dependent on long-distance shipments of oil, water or food.”130 Internationally, there’s a growing group of more than one hundred communities that have declared themselves “Transition Towns”—many in Great Britain but a handful in the United States (including Boulder County, Colorado; Sandpoint, Idaho; and Berea, Kentucky) and elsewhere—that are working toward reducing energy consumption and increasing local energy production, food self-reliance, and industrial ecology, in which the waste of one factory or business is used as the raw materials of the next.
Radicals Chasing Utopia: Inside the Rogue Movements Trying to Change the World by Jamie Bartlett
Andrew Keen, back-to-the-land, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, blue-collar work, brain emulation, centre right, clean water, cryptocurrency, Donald Trump, drone strike, Elon Musk, energy security, ethereum blockchain, failed state, gig economy, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jaron Lanier, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, life extension, Occupy movement, off grid, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, postnationalism / post nation state, precariat, QR code, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Rosa Parks, Satoshi Nakamoto, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart contracts, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, technoutopianism
In 2014 New York banned fracking after a two-year study into its impact on public health, noting in particular the risk of water and surface spill leading to local drinking-water contamination and heightened risk of earthquakes in the area.18 (Poor regulation in Wyoming resulted in fifty times the safe level of benzene, a flammable fuel component, in the local drinking supply.19) It’s also an eyesore, damaging areas of natural beauty and animal habitats, and can be extremely loud. Independent studies have found that the risks associated with fracking can be managed, and advocates argue it will create thousands of local jobs and improve the United Kingdom’s energy security. Yet since 2011 the United Kingdom has been frack-free because local Nimbys got angry, and then got organised, with the help of activists. And when activists and Nimbys work together, something can really happen. In April 2011 the energy company Cuadrilla started test-fracking in Lancashire and shortly after there were two small earthquakes. Anti-fracking groups in the area formed and started to campaign against it.
MacroWikinomics: Rebooting Business and the World by Don Tapscott, Anthony D. Williams
accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, Bretton Woods, business climate, business process, car-free, carbon footprint, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collaborative editing, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, colonial rule, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, demographic transition, distributed generation, don't be evil, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fault tolerance, financial innovation, Galaxy Zoo, game design, global village, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, hive mind, Home mortgage interest deduction, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jaron Lanier, jimmy wales, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, medical bankruptcy, megacity, mortgage tax deduction, Netflix Prize, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shock, old-boy network, online collectivism, open borders, open economy, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, scientific mainstream, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, social web, software patent, Steve Jobs, text mining, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, value at risk, WikiLeaks, X Prize, young professional, Zipcar
A $34.6 billion investment in the clean energy economy in 2009 places China at the top of the clean energy investment league and well ahead of the United States, in second place with an annual investment of $18.6 billion.7 Though $34 billion sounds large, it is still only 10 to 20 percent of the annual investment in renewable sources that some analyst reports claim will be necessary to contain China’s greenhouse gas emissions while still meeting rapidly growing domestic energy demand.8 Nevertheless, China’s stake in the ground is evidence that it will be a major force in determining how the green energy economy evolves in the coming decades. Where does all this leave the United States, the world’s largest consumer of energy? Will it fall behind in the race to develop new industries, address energy security, and reduce emissions? Or will it seize the moment to race ahead? Green energy enthusiasts like to point to past efforts at reindustrialization as inspiration for how to mobilize government and industry behind the new energy revolution. After all, it’s true such grand feats of engineering have been accomplished in the past. Oft-cited examples include the retooling of American automobile factories to build 300,000 aircraft during World War II and the 47,000 miles of interstate highways built over thirty-five years and seven administrations.
affirmative action, anti-communist, banking crisis, battle of ideas, Boycotts of Israel, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, central bank independence, Chelsea Manning, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, drone strike, Edward Snowden, energy security, energy transition, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, experimental subject, F. W. de Klerk, facts on the ground, failed state, financial innovation, Food sovereignty, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, future of journalism, high net worth, invisible hand, Julian Assange, liberal world order, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, Mohammed Bouazizi, Monroe Doctrine, Naomi Klein, Northern Rock, Philip Mirowski, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, statistical model, structural adjustment programs, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game, éminence grise
But there is less concern for what this means vis-à-vis Turkish democracy than for how it affects US interests: “[Prime Minister] Erdoğan and his ruling AK Party seem to have a firm grip on power … Nevertheless, Erdoğan and his party face enormous challenges if they are successfully to embrace core principles of open society, carry out EU harmonization, and develop and implement foreign policies in harmony with core US interests” [04ANKARA7211]. As one cable puts it, in spite of an “imperfect, crabbed” Turkish democracy that does not reach out to opponents, and the fact that “AK appointees at the national and provincial level are incompetent and narrow-minded Islamists,” still the US looks forward to “continuing to work with Turkey on behalf of common interests in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Caucasus, the Balkans, on terrorism, on energy security, on the Cyprus problem and elsewhere in the region and the world” [04ANKARA348_a]. A major interest for the US is the competition between the two dominant Islamic political currents in Turkey—Erdoğan’s AKP and the Gülen Community. While many of the observations in these cables are insightful, they also seem contradictory, a stance that puzzles even some Turkish observers.4 Fethullah Gülen, who currently lives in self-imposed exile in rural Pennsylvania, leads the Gülen Community.
affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Legislative Exchange Council, anti-communist, Bakken shale, bank run, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, centre right, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collective bargaining, corporate raider, crony capitalism, David Brooks, desegregation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, energy security, estate planning, Fall of the Berlin Wall, George Gilder, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, job automation, low skilled workers, mandatory minimum, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, Mont Pelerin Society, More Guns, Less Crime, Nate Silver, New Journalism, obamacare, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Powell Memorandum, Ralph Nader, Renaissance Technologies, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, school choice, school vouchers, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Chicago School, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, Unsafe at Any Speed, War on Poverty, working poor
Banerjee, “The Most Hated Climate Scientist in the US Fights Back,” Yale Alumni Magazine, March/April 2013. “What we didn’t take into account”: Michael Mann, interview with author. “it’s like the switch from whale oil”: Ibid. He owned, by one count: Fisher, “Fuel’s Paradise.” Only the U.S. government: Neela Banerjee, “In Climate Politics, Texas Aims to Be the Anti-California,” Los Angeles Times, Nov. 7, 2010. “unleash what became known”: Daniel Yergin, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (Penguin, 2011), 328–29. The Kochs, too: For more on the Kochs’ fracking investments, see Brad Johnson, “How the Kochs Are Fracking America,” ThinkProgress, March 2, 2012. If the world were to stay: See “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math,” by Bill McKibben, Rolling Stone, July 19, 2012. He explains that scientists believe the earth can tolerate the burning of roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide by mid-century, but that informed estimates place the currently untapped carbon reserves at 2,795 gigatons.
airport security, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Boycotts of Israel, centre right, colonial rule, computer age, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, illegal immigration, index card, Islamic Golden Age, Khyber Pass, Mikhail Gorbachev, Network effects, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, trade route, upwardly mobile, urban planning, women in the workforce
In Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan lay between 50 billion and 100 billion barrels of oil, plus nearly 250 trillion cubic feet of gas. The ex-Soviet governments in charge needed foreign companies to lift and export this energy.8 The Clinton administration’s policy, said its leading National Security Council expert, was to “promote the independence of these oil-rich countries, to in essence break Russia’s monopoly control over the transportation of oil in that region, and, frankly, to promote Western energy security through diversification of supply.” The Clinton White House supported “multiple pipelines” from Central Asia along routes that did not benefit Russia or Iran. Clinton believed that these pipelines were crucial to an evolving American energy policy aimed at reducing dependence on Middle Eastern supplies. Blocking Iran from Central Asia’s new oil riches was also a key goal of American policy, but there were only a few pipeline routes that could bypass Iran.
Vanished Kingdoms: The Rise and Fall of States and Nations by Norman Davies
anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Celtic Tiger, Corn Laws, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, labour mobility, land tenure, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, Red Clydeside, Ronald Reagan, Skype, special economic zone, trade route, urban renewal
Lukashenko has proved resistant to all overtures for meaningful dialogue, always insisting that he will not accept ‘the imposition of alien values from outside’. Protracted discussions preceded the reluctant acceptance of Belarus as a member of the EU’s Eastern Partnership, inaugurated in May 2009. The Partnership complements the Union for the Mediterranean, which deals with the EU’s neighbours in North Africa and the Middle East; it aims to promote good governance, energy security, environmental protection and co-operation on common issues of trade, travel and migration.11 The presidential election of December 2010, therefore, took place amid considerable uncertainty. In the run-up to the elections, President Dmitri Medvedyev of Russia fired off a broadside, accusing Lukashenko of repeatedly breaking his promises; among other supposed offences, he had failed to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and had granted asylum to the ousted Kirghiz president, Bakiryev.
Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies by Tim Koller, McKinsey, Company Inc., Marc Goedhart, David Wessels, Barbara Schwimmer, Franziska Manoury
activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, air freight, barriers to entry, Basel III, BRICs, business climate, business process, capital asset pricing model, capital controls, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable, cloud computing, commoditize, compound rate of return, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, discounted cash flows, distributed generation, diversified portfolio, energy security, equity premium, fixed income, index fund, intangible asset, iterative process, Long Term Capital Management, market bubble, market friction, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Myron Scholes, negative equity, new economy, p-value, performance metric, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, shareholder value, six sigma, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, survivorship bias, technology bubble, time value of money, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, value at risk, yield curve, zero-coupon bond
Consider whether companies in mature, competitive industries should keep open high-cost plants that lose money, just to keep employees working and prevent suppliers from going bankrupt. To do so in a globalizing industry would distort the allocation of resources in the economy, notwithstanding the significant short-term local costs associated with plant closures.9 Energy companies have particularly difficult decisions to make. Government energy policy typically toggles between the goals of cost, energy security, and environmental impact. These do not easily line up in a way that makes for smooth integration into energy companies’ investment decisions. In practice, the companies need to make careful, balanced judgments around the trade-offs embedded in government policy actions in order to factor them into long-term value-creation strategies. And the greater the policy uncertainty, the harder it is for companies to create long-term value in a way that is good for efficient resource allocation and the health of the economy.
The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan by Sebastian Mallaby
airline deregulation, airport security, Andrei Shleifer, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, balance sheet recession, bank run, barriers to entry, Benoit Mandelbrot, Bretton Woods, central bank independence, centralized clearinghouse, collateralized debt obligation, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency peg, energy security, equity premium, fiat currency, financial deregulation, financial innovation, fixed income, Flash crash, forward guidance, full employment, Hyman Minsky, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, interest rate swap, inventory management, invisible hand, Kenneth Rogoff, Kitchen Debate, laissez-faire capitalism, Long Term Capital Management, low skilled workers, market bubble, market clearing, Martin Wolf, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Myron Scholes, new economy, Nixon shock, Northern Rock, paper trading, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, Plutocrats, plutocrats, popular capitalism, price stability, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, secular stagnation, short selling, The Great Moderation, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade liberalization, unorthodox policies, upwardly mobile, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, Y2K, yield curve, zero-sum game
If Saddam Hussein seemed unlikely to back down, the same was true for the United States, Greenspan explained to the committee. Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries were clustered in an area not far from Kuwait, rendering them vulnerable to attacks launched from Iraq’s new bases; some Iraqi pilots had already volunteered for kamikaze raids, Greenspan confided to his colleagues. Saddam Hussein’s ability to threaten Saudi Arabia, coupled with his control over Kuwait’s oil, would pose unacceptable risks to U.S. energy security. “If Saddam is perceived to be increasing his power and his clout and his control over the West, he is going to be able to name OPEC’s level of output. He has terrorist groups out there and he can control Indonesia and every far-flung oil producer in the world.” In Greenspan’s opinion, Saddam had to be confronted.10 Having cowed his colleagues with his military insights, Greenspan advanced his monetary prescription: do nothing.