Valery Gerasimov

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pages: 394 words: 117,982

The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage, and Fear in the Cyber Age by David E. Sanger

active measures, autonomous vehicles, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, British Empire, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, computer age, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Google Chrome, Google Earth, Jacob Appelbaum, John Markoff, Mark Zuckerberg, MITM: man-in-the-middle, mutually assured destruction, RAND corporation, ransomware, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, Valery Gerasimov, WikiLeaks, zero day

Rarely in human history has a new weapon been adapted with such speed, customized to fit so many different tasks, and exploited by so many nations to reshape their influence on global events without turning to outright war. Among the fastest adapters has been Putin’s Russia, which deserves credit as a master of the art form, though it is not the only practitioner. Moscow has shown the world how hybrid war works. The strategy is hardly a state secret: Valery Gerasimov, a Russian general, described the strategy in public, and then helped implement it in Ukraine, the country that has become a test-bed for techniques Russia later used against the United States and its allies. The Gerasimov doctrine combines old and new: Stalinist propaganda, magnified by the power of Twitter and Facebook, and backed up by brute force. As the story told in this book makes clear, parts of the US government—and many other governments—saw all the signs that our chief adversaries were headed toward a new vector of attack.

“President Trump has used just about every lever you can use, short of starving the people of North Korea to death, to change their behavior.” CHAPTER VII PUTIN’S PETRI DISH In the twenty-first century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace. Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template. —Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, on Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy, 2013 In the last days of June 2017, Dmytro Shymkiv was 4,600 miles from Ukraine, dropping off his kids for summer camp in upstate New York. It was the family’s annual summer break from life in Kiev, a capital that still lives uncomfortably between the tug of old Soviet culture and the lure of new Europe.

In the battle for Ukraine’s territory and its soul, conventional war and cyberwar did more than just complement each other. They became the Möbius strip of twenty-first-century conflict, one continuous band, with surfaces that seem to blend seamlessly into each other. Putin showed the world how effective this strategy, what the Pentagon terms “hybrid warfare,” can be. The strategy was hardly a state secret. In fact, Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff of the Russian Federation armed forces, described it in a much-quoted 2014 article in a Russian defense journal (the wonderfully named The Military-Industrial Courier) articulating what is now widely known as the Gerasimov doctrine. Gerisamov described what any historian of Russian war fighting knows well: a battlefield war that merges conventional attacks, terror, economic coercion, propaganda, and, most recently, cyber.


pages: 324 words: 96,491

Messing With the Enemy: Surviving in a Social Media World of Hackers, Terrorists, Russians, and Fake News by Clint Watts

4chan, active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Chelsea Manning, Climatic Research Unit, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Filter Bubble, global pandemic, Google Earth, illegal immigration, Internet of things, Julian Assange, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, Mikhail Gorbachev, mobile money, mutually assured destruction, obamacare, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, pre–internet, side project, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, The Wisdom of Crowds, Turing test, University of East Anglia, Valery Gerasimov, WikiLeaks, zero day

Stand-alone initiatives like Operation Infektion achieved remarkable tactical success, but strategically, active measures required too much time and money. They also required less resistance to cement themselves among targeted Western populations and to generate grassroots support. Active measures could and would work; the timing just wasn’t right—until the advent of the internet. * * * Almost a year before Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, the chief of the general staff of the Russian Federation, General Valery Gerasimov, authored an article laying out his vision of future warfare based on his interpretation of recent Arab Spring protests across North Africa and the Middle East. Gerasimov noted: The very rules of war have changed. The role of non-military means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness. . . .

Thomas Boghardt, “Operation INFEKTION: Soviet Bloc Intelligence and Its AIDS Disinformation Campaign,” Studies in Intelligence, vol. 53, No. 4. (December 2009) 1–24. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol53no4/pdf/U-%20Boghardt-AIDS-Made%20in%20the%20USA-17Dec.pdf. 4. Robert Coalson, “Top Russian General Lays Bare Putin’s Plan for Ukraine,” The Huffington Post (November 2, 2014). https://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-coalson/valery-gerasimov-putin-ukraine_b_574 8480.html. 5. “Russia to create ‘cyber-troops’–Ministry of Defense,” RT (August 20, 2013). https://www.rt.com/news/russia-cyber-troops-defence-753. 6. Eric Lipton, David E. Sanger, and Scott Shane, “The Perfect Weapon: How Russian Cyberpower Invaded the U.S.,” The New York Times (December 13, 2016). https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/russia-hack-election-dnc.html. 7.


pages: 363 words: 105,039

Sandworm: A New Era of Cyberwar and the Hunt for the Kremlin's Most Dangerous Hackers by Andy Greenberg

air freight, Airbnb, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, call centre, clean water, data acquisition, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, global supply chain, hive mind, Julian Assange, Just-in-time delivery, Kickstarter, Mikhail Gorbachev, open borders, pirate software, pre–internet, profit motive, ransomware, RFID, speech recognition, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, Valery Gerasimov, WikiLeaks, zero day

One more recent document seemed to offer a keyhole view into the thinking of the Russian military and its understanding of that distinction. In 2013, the Russian-language journal Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kur’er, or Military-Industrial Courier, had published a two-thousand-word article with an absurdly dry title: “The Value of Science in Prediction.” It was based on a speech given by the chief of the General Staff of the Russian military, General Valery Gerasimov. The article was little noticed in the West, but Mark Galeotti published a translation in his blog a year later. “In the 21st century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace,” the article began. “Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template.” New information technologies have enabled significant reductions in the spatial, temporal, and informational gaps between forces and control organs.

It was the GRU that led: Galeotti, “Putin’s Secret Weapon.” “shown the rest of the world”: Ibid. In the spring: “MH17—Russian GRU Commander ‘Orion’ Identified as Oleg Kannikov,” Bellingcat, May 25, 2018, www.bellingcat.com; and “Third Suspect in Skripal Poisoning Identified as Denis Sergeev, High Ranking GRU Officer,” Bellingcat, Feb. 24, 2019, bellingcat.com. It was based on a speech: Valery Gerasimov, “The Value of Science Is in the Foresight: New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying Out Combat Operations,” Military-Industrial Courier, Feb. 27, 2013, translated and reprinted in Military Review, Jan./Feb. 2016, usacac.army.mil/. The article was little noticed: Mark Galeotti, “The ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ and Russian Non-linear War,” In Moscow’s Shadow, Feb. 27, 2013, inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com, archived at bit.ly/2G2NsEK.


pages: 590 words: 152,595

Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War by Paul Scharre

active measures, Air France Flight 447, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, automated trading system, autonomous vehicles, basic income, brain emulation, Brian Krebs, cognitive bias, computer vision, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, DARPA: Urban Challenge, DevOps, drone strike, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, facts on the ground, fault tolerance, Flash crash, Freestyle chess, friendly fire, IFF: identification friend or foe, ImageNet competition, Internet of things, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Loebner Prize, loose coupling, Mark Zuckerberg, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nate Silver, pattern recognition, Rodney Brooks, Rubik’s Cube, self-driving car, sensor fusion, South China Sea, speech recognition, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Wozniak, Stuxnet, superintelligent machines, Tesla Model S, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, theory of mind, Turing test, universal basic income, Valery Gerasimov, Wall-E, William Langewiesche, Y2K, zero day

As in other cases, it is difficult to independently evaluate these claims, but they signal a willingness to use artificial intelligence for autonomous targeting. Russian companies’ boasting of autonomous features has none of the hesitation or hedging that is often seen from American or British defense firms. Senior Russian military commanders have stated they intend to move toward fully robotic weapons. In a 2013 article on the future of warfare, Russian military chief of staff General Valery Gerasimov wrote: Another factor influencing the essence of modern means of armed conflict is the use of modern automated complexes of military equipment and research in the area of artificial intelligence. While today we have flying drones, tomorrow’s battlefields will be filled with walking, crawling, jumping, and flying robots. In the near future it is possible a fully robotized unit will be created, capable of independently conducting military operations.

Horowitz, “Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” International Organization, 71 no. 2 (Spring 2017), 397–418. 5 “next industrial revolution”: “Robot Revolution—Global Robot & AI Primer,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch, December 16, 2015, http://www.bofaml.com/content/dam/boamlimages/documents/PDFs/robotics_and_ai_condensed_primer.pdf. 5 Kevin Kelly: Kevin Kelly, “The Three Breakthroughs That Have Finally Unleashed AI on the World,” Wired, October 27, 2014, http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/. 5 cognitization of machines: Antonio Manzalini, “Cognitization is Upon Us!,” 5G Network Softwarization, May 21, 2015, http://ieee-sdn.blogspot.com/2015/05/cognitization-is-upon-us.html. 6 “fully roboticized . . . military operations”: Robert Coalson, “Top Russian General Lays Bare Putin’s Plan for Ukraine,” Huffington Post, September 2, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-coalson/valery-gerasimov-putin-ukraine_b_5748480.html. 6 Department of Defense officials state: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research Melissa Flagg, as quoted in Stew Magnuson, “Autonomous, Lethal Robot Concepts Must Be ‘On the Table,’ DoD Official Says,” March 3, 2016, http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=2110. 6 AI programs today: For an overview of machine capabilities and limitations today for image recognition and understanding, see JASON, “Perspectives on Research in Artificial Intelligence and Artificial General Intelligence Relevant to DoD, JSR-16-Task-003,” The Mitre Corporation, January 2017, 10–11, https://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/ai-dod.pdf. 7 Over 3,000 robotics and artificial intelligence experts: “Autonomous Weapons: An Open Letter From AI & Robotics Researchers,” Future of Life Institute, http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/.


Mindf*ck: Cambridge Analytica and the Plot to Break America by Christopher Wylie

4chan, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, Boris Johnson, British Empire, call centre, Chelsea Manning, chief data officer, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, computer vision, conceptual framework, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, desegregation, Dominic Cummings, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Etonian, first-past-the-post, Google Earth, housing crisis, income inequality, indoor plumbing, information asymmetry, Internet of things, Julian Assange, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, Peter Thiel, Potemkin village, recommendation engine, Renaissance Technologies, Robert Mercer, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Sand Hill Road, Scientific racism, Shoshana Zuboff, side project, Silicon Valley, Skype, uber lyft, unpaid internship, Valery Gerasimov, web application, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game

Later, it emerged that Facebook, in a panic about its PR crisis, had hired the secret communications firm Definers Public Affairs, which subsequently leaked out fake narratives filled with anti-Semitic tropes about its critics being part of a George Soros–funded conspiracy. Rumors were seeded on the Internet and, as I discovered personally, its targets took it as a cue to take matters into their own hands. * * * — IN FEBRUARY 2013, a Russian military general named Valery Gerasimov wrote an article challenging the prevailing notions of warfare. Gerasimov, who was Russia’s chief of the general staff (roughly equivalent to chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff), penned his thoughts in the Military-Industrial Kurier under the title “The Value of Science Is in the Foresight”—a set of ideas that some would later dub the Gerasimov Doctrine. Gerasimov wrote that the “ ‘rules of war’ have changed” and that “the role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown.”


pages: 349 words: 98,868

Nervous States: Democracy and the Decline of Reason by William Davies

active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Amazon Web Services, bank run, banking crisis, basic income, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, citizen journalism, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, Colonization of Mars, continuation of politics by other means, creative destruction, credit crunch, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, discovery of penicillin, Dominic Cummings, Donald Trump, drone strike, Elon Musk, failed state, Filter Bubble, first-past-the-post, Frank Gehry, gig economy, housing crisis, income inequality, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Johannes Kepler, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mont Pelerin Society, mutually assured destruction, Northern Rock, obamacare, Occupy movement, pattern recognition, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, planetary scale, post-industrial society, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, road to serfdom, Robert Mercer, Ronald Reagan, sentiment analysis, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, smart cities, statistical model, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, Turing machine, Uber for X, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, Valery Gerasimov, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

But there are also emotional reasons why that line is becoming blurred. Part of the appeal of war, at least as an idea, is that—unlike the civil society designed by the likes of Hobbes—it represents a form of politics where feelings really matter. PART TWO The Rise of Feeling 5 KNOWLEDGE FOR WAR Secrecy, sentiment, and real-time intelligence In an influential article published in 2013, the Russian general Valery Gerasimov argued that “in the twenty-first century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace. Wars are no longer declared.” The example of the 2011 Arab Spring suggested to Gerasimov that “nonmilitary” means of war could be far more threatening to state powers in the future than traditional military ones. All political regimes have points of acute vulnerability, he argued, of which they themselves may not be aware because they’ve never considered them in terms of war.


pages: 448 words: 117,325

Click Here to Kill Everybody: Security and Survival in a Hyper-Connected World by Bruce Schneier

23andMe, 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Brian Krebs, business process, cloud computing, cognitive bias, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Heinemeier Hansson, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, fault tolerance, Firefox, Flash crash, George Akerlof, industrial robot, information asymmetry, Internet of things, invention of radio, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, loose coupling, market design, medical malpractice, Minecraft, MITM: man-in-the-middle, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, national security letter, Network effects, pattern recognition, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, ransomware, Rodney Brooks, Ross Ulbricht, security theater, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart transportation, Snapchat, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, The Market for Lemons, too big to fail, Uber for X, Unsafe at Any Speed, uranium enrichment, Valery Gerasimov, web application, WikiLeaks, zero day

Broad (4 Mar 2017), “Trump inherits a secret cyberwar against North Korean missiles,” New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-missile-program-sabotage.html. 71In 2012, a senior Russian general: Mark Galeotti (6 Jul 2014), “The ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ and Russian non-linear war,” In Moscow’s Shadows, https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/07/06/the-gerasimov-doctrine-and-russian-non-linear-war. Henry Foy (15 Sep 2017), “Valery Gerasimov, the general with a doctrine for Russia,” Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/7e14a438-989b-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b. 71There are cyberattacks that will be: David E. Sanger and Elisabeth Bumiller (31 May 2011), “Pentagon to consider cyberattacks acts of war,” New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/01/us/politics/01cyber.html. 71a state that political scientist Lucas Kello calls “unpeace”: Lucas Kello (2017), The Virtual Weapon and International Order, Yale University Press, https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300220230/virtual-weapon-and-international-order. 71The US responded to the North Korean attack: Carol Morello and Greg Miller (2 Jan 2015), “U.S. imposes sanctions on N.


pages: 756 words: 120,818

The Levelling: What’s Next After Globalization by Michael O’sullivan

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, Airbnb, algorithmic trading, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, business process, capital controls, Celtic Tiger, central bank independence, cloud computing, continuation of politics by other means, corporate governance, credit crunch, cryptocurrency, deglobalization, deindustrialization, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, eurozone crisis, financial innovation, first-past-the-post, fixed income, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, Gini coefficient, global value chain, housing crisis, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), knowledge economy, liberal world order, Long Term Capital Management, longitudinal study, market bubble, minimum wage unemployment, new economy, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, open economy, pattern recognition, Peace of Westphalia, performance metric, private military company, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, secular stagnation, Silicon Valley, Sinatra Doctrine, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, special drawing rights, supply-chain management, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, tulip mania, Valery Gerasimov, Washington Consensus

Abi-Habib, “How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port,” New York Times, June 25, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html. 20. Van Creveld, More on War; Grayling, War. 21. See General Gerasimov’s essay: G. Valery, “The Value of Science in Foresight,” Military Industrial Courier, February 26, 2013, https://www.vpk-news.ru/articles/14632; also H. Foy, “Valery Gerasimov, the General with a Doctrine for Russia,” Financial Times, September 15, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/7e14a438-989b-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b. 22. The US Army Futures Command in Austin, Texas, is one of the areas of thought leadership in new aspects of warfare such as urban-based war. 23. There are already several frameworks in existence to guide ethical work: UNESCO’s Universal Declaration on the Human Genome and Human Rights (November 1997), UNESCO’s International Declaration on Human Genetic Data (October 2003), UNESCO’s Universal Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights (October 2005), and the European Union’s Additional Protocol to the Convention on Human Rights and Biomedicine Concerning Genetic Testing for Health Purposes (November 2008). 24.


pages: 525 words: 131,496

Near and Distant Neighbors: A New History of Soviet Intelligence by Jonathan Haslam

active measures, Albert Einstein, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bolshevik threat, Bretton Woods, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, falling living standards, John von Neumann, lateral thinking, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, Valery Gerasimov, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, éminence grise

Until 2014, its role as policeman of the “near abroad” (former Soviet republics) looked redundant. All of a sudden the GRU has found a new role in what might be described as “implausibly deniable” aktivka, operations not unlike those conducted against Poland by the Fourth in the 1920s: sufficient to keep the wound bleeding but insufficient, thus far, to warrant massive retaliation.8 These forms of covert operations were heralded by the new chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, in January 2013. The business-speak within the army today is “outsourcing,” which has been coined as a new Russian word. Now it has acquired a new meaning altogether. Moscow “outsources” its war fighting. Considered “an intellectual,” in the words of the editor of Natsional’naya oborona, Gerasimov assured those assembled at the Academy of Military Sciences that force continued to play an important role in resolving disputes between countries and that “hot points” existed close to Russian frontiers.


pages: 548 words: 147,919

How Everything Became War and the Military Became Everything: Tales From the Pentagon by Rosa Brooks

airport security, Albert Einstein, Berlin Wall, big-box store, clean water, cognitive dissonance, continuation of politics by other means, different worldview, disruptive innovation, drone strike, Edward Snowden, facts on the ground, failed state, illegal immigration, Internet Archive, John Markoff, Mark Zuckerberg, moral panic, pattern recognition, Peace of Westphalia, personalized medicine, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, Turing test, unemployed young men, Valery Gerasimov, Wall-E, War on Poverty, WikiLeaks

After all, it took the Taliban remarkably little time to realize that high-tech U.S. capabilities could frequently be thwarted by lower-tech countermeasures. ISIS has been quick to exploit U.S. overreliance on high-tech precision weapons as well, and our related refusal to consider “boots on the ground.” Near-peer states such as China and Russia have also taken notice. The Russians have already begun to reshape their strategic assumptions around these changes. In a 2013 article in a Russian military journal, for instance, Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s deputy defense minister and chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, wrote of the need for his country’s military to adapt to this new world: “In the 21st century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace. Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template.” Gerasimov went on: The very “rules of war” have changed.


pages: 592 words: 161,798

The Future of War by Lawrence Freedman

Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, British Empire, colonial rule, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Donald Trump, drone strike, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Google Glasses, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Markoff, long peace, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, open economy, pattern recognition, Peace of Westphalia, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, speech recognition, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, the scientific method, uranium enrichment, urban sprawl, Valery Gerasimov, WikiLeaks, zero day

In 2006 its tactics showed up those of Israel, which judged the demands of the war poorly, relying too much on air power without a strong ground presence. But the war was also costly for the militia, with a lot of fighters killed, and the Israeli campaign battered its urban sanctuaries.7 Interest in the approach was revived as it was apparently followed by Russia in its campaign against Ukraine that began in 2014. In early 2013 Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s general staff, had described how this might work. He noted how in Middle East conflicts there had been a progressive erosion of the distinctions between war and peace and between uniformed personnel and covert operatives. Wars were ‘not declared but simply begin,’ so that ‘a completely well-off and stable country’ could be transformed into ‘an arena of the most intense armed conflict in a matter of months or even days.’