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Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet by Jeffrey Sachs
agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, British Empire, business process, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, Edward Glaeser, energy security, failed state, Gini coefficient, Haber-Bosch Process, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, labour mobility, low skilled workers, mass immigration, microcredit, oil shale / tar sands, old age dependency ratio, peak oil, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, Skype, statistical model, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, unemployed young men, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working-age population
POPULATION POLICIES AND THE REDUCTION IN FERTILITY It might be supposed that fertility choices are among the most private of all decisions and the least amenable to government action (except, perhaps, by coercion). Yes, societies will pass through a demographic transition, but it would seem to be one that can, should, and will be determined by individual choices, not by government policies. Indeed, for today’s rich countries of Western Europe and the United States, the demographic transition that took place during the twentieth century occurred largely through such decision making of individual households. Yet the same has not been the case in the poorer countries. Their demographic transitions, where they have occurred, have typically been accelerated, and even triggered, by proactive government policies. Since governments have played a key role in the rapid decline in mortality rates of young children, for example, through provision of immunizations and safe drinking water, they have also had to step in to promote a rapid decline in fertility to accompany the decline in mortality.
Young men, especially impoverished young men without reliable employment, are fodder for the nightmarish dreams of political manipulators. This is not to blame the poorest countries for their plight, or to fear them. It is to suggest to them, and to us, that reducing the TFR from very high levels is part of their own security and ours. SPEEDING THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION The world is not locked in a demographic straitjacket but is instead in a transition, albeit one that is stretched out over many decades and with large differences across regions. The core idea is known as the demographic transition, illustrated in Figure 7.6. A society begins with very high mortality rates (especially of young children) and very high fertility rates. The population is roughly stable because the high fertility rates are offset by high mortality rates. As an example, suppose that the TFR is 5, but three of five children never reach adulthood.
Roughly speaking, a 3 percent annual growth rate corresponds with a net reproductive rate of around 2. Figure 7.6: Demographic Transition Model Source: Haggett (1975) Let’s take the case of Kenya during 2005–10 as an illustration. The under-five mortality rate has declined to 1 in 10 children (104 per 1,000 for the period 2005–10 in the UN Population Division projections). This corresponds to a crude death rate of 12 per 1,000. The total fertility rate remains high at 5, which translates to a crude birth rate of 39 per 1,000. The difference between the two, 39 minus 12, results in a net annual population increase of 27 per 1,000, or an annual growth rate of 2.7 percent per year. The net reproduction rate with a TFR of 5 and an under-five mortality rate of 104 per 1,000 is just a sliver under 2 (1.96). The upshot of demographic transition theory is that the total fertility rate declines with a lag, leading to a massive onetime bulge of population as the society transitions from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality.
Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jörgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows
agricultural Revolution, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dematerialisation, demographic transition, financial independence, game design, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), means of production, new economy, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review
This part of the world has experienced rates of population growth much greater than any the North ever had to deal with (except for North America, which absorbed high rates of immigration from Europe). The populations of many countries of the South have already grown by factors of 10 and are still growing. Their demographic transitions are far from complete. FIGURE 2-6 Demographic Transitions in Industrialized Countries (A) and in Less Industrialized Countries (B) In the demographic transition a nation's death rate falls first, followed by its birth rate. Sweden's demographic transition occurred over almost 200 years, with the birth rate remaining rather close to the death rate. During this time Sweden's population increased less than fivefold. Japan is an example of a nation that has effected the transition in less than a century. The less industrialized countries of the late 1900s have experienced much larger gaps between their birth and death rates than any that ever prevailed in the now industrialized countries.
The less industrialized countries of the late 1900s have experienced much larger gaps between their birth and death rates than any that ever prevailed in the now industrialized countries. (Sources: N. Keyfitz and W. Flieger; J. Chesnais; UN; PRB; UK ONS; Republic of China.) FIGURE 2-6 Demographic Transitions in Industrialized Countries (A) and in Less Industrialized Countries (B) FIGURE 2-6 Demographic Transitions in Industrialized Countries (A) and in Less Industrialized Countries (B) Demographers argue about why there appears to be a demographic transition linked to industrialization. The driving factors are more complicated than rising income alone. Figure 2-7 shows, for example, the correlation between per capita income (measured as the gross national income, or GNI,8 per person per year) and birth rates in various countries of the world.
Census Bureau International Data Base, http: / / www census. gov / ipc / www / idbnew.html. Figure 2-4 World Demographic Transition The World Population Situation in 1970 (New York: United Nations, 1971). World Population Prospects: the 2000 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2001) http: / / www.un. o rg / popin / . Table 2-3 Additions to World Population The World Population Situation in 1970 (New York: United Nations, 1971). World Population Prospects: the 2000 Revision (New York: United Nations, 2001) http: / / www.un.org/ popin /. Figure 2-5 World Annual Population Increase World Population Prospects 2000 (New York: United Nations, 2000). Donald J. Bogue, Principles of Demography (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1969). Figure 2-6 Demographic Transitions in Industrialized Countries and in Less Industrialized Countries Nathan Keyfitz and W.
The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves by Matt Ridley
23andMe, agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, Corn Laws, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, falling living standards, feminist movement, financial innovation, Flynn Effect, food miles, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, happiness index / gross national happiness, haute cuisine, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Kula ring, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Northern Rock, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, packet switching, patent troll, Pax Mongolica, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Productivity paradox, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Silicon Valley, spice trade, spinning jenny, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supervolcano, technological singularity, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transaction costs, ultimatum game, upwardly mobile, urban sprawl, Vernor Vinge, Vilfredo Pareto, wage slave, working poor, working-age population, Y2K, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game
Even Yemen, the country with the highest birth rate in the world for most of the 1970s with an average of nearly nine babies per woman, has halved the number. Once the demographic transition starts happening in a country it happens at all levels of society pretty well at the same time. Not everybody saw the demographic transition coming, but some did. When the journalist John Maddox wrote a book in 1973 arguing that the demographic transition was already slowing Asian birth rates, he was treated to a condescending blast by Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren: The most serious of Maddox’s many demographic errors is his invocation of a ‘demographic transition’ as the cure for population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America. He expects that birth rates there will drop as they did in developed countries following the industrial revolution.
But it is the best that is available and I have used it in this chapter for lack of a better measure. p. 205 ‘As the environmentalist Stewart Brand puts it’. Brand, S. 2005. Environmental heresies. Technology Review, May 2005. p. 206 ‘the entire world is experiencing the second half of a “demographic transition”’. Caldwell, J. 2006. Demographic Transition Theory. Springer. p. 207 ‘a condescending blast by Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren’. Maddox’s book was called The Doomsday Syndrome (1973, McGraw Hill) and Holdren’s and Ehrlich’s review is quoted by John Tierney at http://tierneylab.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/the-skeptical-prophet/. p. 207 ‘demographic transition theory is a splendidly confused field.’ Or to put it in academic-ese, ‘the debate continues with a plethora of contending theoretical frameworks, none of which has gained wide adherence.’ Hirschman, quoted in Bongaarts, J. and Watkins, S.C. 1996.
But even if those nations should follow that course, starting immediately, their population growth would continue for well over a century – perhaps producing by the year 2100 a world population of twenty thousand million. Rarely has a paragraph proved so wrong so soon. An unexplained phenomenon Deliciously, nobody really knows how to explain this mysteriously predictable phenomenon. Demographic transition theory is a splendidly confused field. The birth-rate collapse seems to be largely a bottom-up thing that emerges by cultural evolution, spreads by word of mouth, and is not commanded by fiat from above. Neither governments nor churches can take much credit. After all, the European demographic transition happened in the nineteenth century without any official encouragement or even knowledge. In the case of France, it happened in the teeth of official encouragement to breed. Likewise, the modern transition began without any government family-planning policies in many countries, especially Latin America.
The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey
3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve
Lutz calculates that world population in 2060 would be 1 billion fewer if the education of women globally could be speeded up to the rate achieved by South Korea in the 1960s and 1970s. As Galor noted, the demographic transition was delayed in many poor countries, but in the second half of the twentieth century these countries also began to see rapid declines in their fertility rates. Bucknell University political scientist John Doces finds that increasing international trade is now propelling the demographic transition throughout much of the developing world. In fact, as global fertility declined since the 1950s, the value of world merchandise exports during the same period has soared by nearly ninety times. In his 2011 study “Globalization and Population: International Trade and the Demographic Transition,” Doces looks at recent data from a large number of countries and finds that those that are most open to international trade are the ones experiencing the fastest decline in their fertility rates.
“further increases in the rate”: Oded Galor, “The Demographic Transition: Causes and Consequences.” Discussion Paper series, 2012, Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit, No. 6334. www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/58611/1/715373668.pdf. OECD economist: Fabrice Murtin, “On the Demographic Transition 1870–2000.” Paris School of Economics Working Paper (2009). Lutz calculates that: Wolfgang Lutz, “Toward a 21st Century Population Policy Paradigm.” International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, February 2, 2013. As Galor noted: World Trade Organization: www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2002_e/chp_2_e.pdf. as global fertility declined: John A. Doces, “Globalization and Population: International Trade and the Demographic Transition.” International Interactions 37 (May 2011): 127–146. www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03050629.2011.568838#preview. 24–25 “increasing international exchange”: Mark M.
I asked. “I am one of twelve,” my driver replied, adding that he had grown up on a farm in the northern part of the country. Then I asked, “How many children do your kids have now? “None,” he replied with a hint of a frown. “City life is so expensive, a couple are still finishing up school, and good jobs are hard to find,” he explained. That’s the demographic transition right there, I thought to myself. Population researchers define the demographic transition as the change in the human condition from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility. Initially, both birthrates and death rates are high and natural population growth is low. With the advent of modern medicine and sanitation, mortality rates fall and fertility remains high, producing a rapidly growing population. Eventually fertility rates also fall, leading to a reduction in the rate of population growth.
China's Future by David Shambaugh
Berlin Wall, capital controls, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, facts on the ground, financial intermediation, financial repression, Gini coefficient, high net worth, knowledge economy, labour mobility, low skilled workers, market bubble, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, open economy, Pearl River Delta, rent-seeking, secular stagnation, short selling, South China Sea, special drawing rights, too big to fail, urban planning, Washington Consensus, working-age population, young professional
This is affecting a core element of China’s post-1978 growth model: low-end manufacturing based on low wages for migrant labor. The aging of the population is also contributing to the gradual shrinking of the labor force as the “baby boomers” born in the 1960s–1970s, who powered the post-reform boom, age. Let us look at this more closely. Demographic Transition Of all the multiple social challenges we catalogue in this chapter, perhaps the most profound—yet quietest—factor shaping China’s future is its demographic transition from a young to an aging society (Figure 3.8). The size of the country’s population aged 60 and above will increase dramatically, growing by 100 million in just fifteen years—from 200 million in 2015 to over 300 million by 2030—and a projected 450 million by 2050. The number of families with only one child, the vast majority of the population, only underscores the challenge of supporting the growing numbers of elderly Chinese.
The Third Plenum Revisited Rebalancing Growth Rates Worrying Sectoral Signs The Financial System Personal Consumption and Spending State-Owned Enterprise Reform The Key to Success: Innovation Pathways to China’s Economic Future Prospects Notes 3 China’s Society China’s Shifting Class Composition The Volatile Periphery Civil Society Urbanization Migration and the Labor Market Demographic Transition Provision of Public Goods Pathways to China’s Social Future Notes 4 China’s Polity China’s Recent Political Evolution Pathways to China’s Political Future Notes 5 China’s Future and the World Rising Tensions on China’s Periphery China’s Relations with Other Powers The Global South: Fraternity or Neo-Colonialism? China’s Growing Military Capabilities China’s Future Impact on the World Notes Index End User License Agreement List of Figures 1.1 Possible Pathways for China’s Future 1.2 Pathways and Likely Results for China’s Future 1.3 The J-Curve 2.1 China’s Development Strategy 2.2 China’s GDP Growth Rates 2.3 China’s Alternative GDP Projections 3.1 China’s Gini Coefficient 3.2 China’s Gini Coefficient in Comparison 3.3 China’s Reported Incidents of Mass Unrest 3.4 Xinjiang and Tibet 3.5 Hong Kong’s “Umbrella Revolution” 3.6 Taiwan’s Sunflower Movement 3.7 China’s Urbanization Growth 3.8 China’s Demographic Projections 4.1 China’s Political Orientation 1985–2015 4.2 Zeng Qinghong 4.3 Xi Jinping 5.1 China’s Trade in Asia 5.2 Asian Perceptions of China’s Territorial Disputes 5.3 Perceptions of China as a Global Power 5.4 American Views of China 2005–2015 5.5 Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin 5.6 China’s Soft Power Appeal in the Developing World 5.7 China’s Military Spending 2000-2014 Dedicated to Harry Harding China’s Future David Shambaugh polity Copyright © David Shambaugh 2016 The right of David Shambaugh to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
For governments like China’s, where popular support and regime longevity primarily depend upon what is known in political science as “performance legitimacy,” the pressure to deliver an ever-improving standard of living and public goods is inexorable. This chapter catalogues many of the major societal challenges in China today. Effectively addressing these challenges will create ongoing tasks for the government into the future. Some—such as urbanization, healthcare, education, pensions, and environmental cleanup—are occurring as a result of government initiatives. Others, such as social stratification or demographic transition, are occurring largely irrespective of government policies. And some—such as repression of the public sphere and unrest along China’s periphery—are occurring because of government policies. In some spheres a stronger and more proactive state is required (environmental protection, public good provision), while in other domains a looser and less repressive state is needed (public sphere, Xinjiang and Tibet) in order to cope with the challenges.
agricultural Revolution, Columbian Exchange, demographic transition, double helix, European colonialism, food miles, Francisco Pizarro, Haber-Bosch Process, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, John Snow's cholera map, out of africa, planetary scale, premature optimization, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade
University of Nebraska Press, Lincoln. Galor, O. 2012. The demographic transition: Causes and consequences. Cliometrica 6:1–28. Galor, O., and D. Weil. 2000. Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review 90:806–828. Geertz, C. 1963. Agricultural Involution: The Process of Ecological Change in Indonesia. University of California Press, Berkeley. Kearney, J. 2010. Food consumption trends and drivers. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 365:2793–2807. Kinealy, C. 1997. A Death-Dealing Famine: The Great Hunger in Ireland. Pluto Press, Chicago. Langer, W. 1975. American foods and Europe’s population growth. Journal of Social History 8:51–66. Lee, R. 2003. The demographic transition: Three centuries of fundamental change.
Ramankutty, K. Brauman, E. Cassidy, J. Gerber, M. Johnston, N. Mueller, C. O’Connell, D. Ray, P. West, C. Balzer, E. Bennett, S. Carpenter, J. Hill, C. Monfreda, S. Polasky, J. Rockström, J. Sheehan, S. Siebert, D. Tilman, and D. Zaks. 2011. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478:337–342. Galor, O. 2012. The demographic transition: Causes and consequences. Cliometrica 6:1–28. Galor, O., and D. Weil. 2000. Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review 90:806–828. Garnett, T. 2011. Where are the best opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the food system (including the food chain)? Food Policy 36:S23–S32. Geibler, J. 2013. Market-based governance for sustainability in value chains: Conditions for successful standard setting in the palm oil sector.
With more children surviving, and contraception becoming available, women began to have fewer children, especially when they had access to education and jobs. A rationale for large families disappeared as labor-intensive farm life gave way to city living. Women married and had children later in life. We can all probably trace this arc of large to small families with a view back a few generations into our own family trees. The shift from high death and birth rates to low rates for both is known as the demographic transition. It is responsible for the massive explosion in the number of mouths to feed during the Big Ratchet, although it began in around 1800 in northwestern Europe. The Big Ratchet’s transition ranks among the largest demographic upheavals in human history, and in most countries it is still underway. In 1800, there were 950 million people in the world. By 1900, there were slightly more than 1.5 billion.
The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith
Bretton Woods, BRICs, clean water, Climategate, colonial rule, deglobalization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, flex fuel, global supply chain, Google Earth, guest worker program, Hans Island, hydrogen economy, ice-free Arctic, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, land tenure, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Y2K
This chain of events, in which a population run-up is at first initiated, then later stabilized, by the forces of modernization is called the Demographic Transition and is a bedrock concept in demography.16 The Demographic Transition supposes that modernization tends to reduce death and fertility rates, but not simultaneously. Because people tend to readily adopt technological advances in medicine and food production, death rates fall first and quickly. But fertility reductions—which tend to be driven by increased education and empowerment of women, an urban lifestyle, access to contraception, downsized family expectations, and other cultural changes—take more time. And just like a bank account, when the death (spending) rate falls faster than the birth (savings) rate, the result is a rapid run-up in the sum total. Even if fertility rates later fall to match death rates—thus completing the Demographic Transition and halting further growth—a new, much larger population balance is then carried forward.
Even if fertility rates later fall to match death rates—thus completing the Demographic Transition and halting further growth—a new, much larger population balance is then carried forward. In the twentieth century, one Demographic Transition concluded and another began. In Europe and North America it took from about 1750 to 1950 to complete, making these places the fastest-growing in the world while most of Asia and Africa grew slowly. This growth then slowed or stopped as industrialized countries completed the Demographic Transition, their fertility rates falling to near or even below the death rate. But in the developing world, a new Demographic Transition that began in the early twentieth century with the arrival of modern medicine has still not finished. Thanks to the inventions of antibiotics and vaccines, along with insecticides to control diseases like malaria, death rates have plummeted17 but fertility rates, while dropping, have fallen less quickly.
In some countries they haven’t fallen at all, defying the classic Demographic Transition notion that all modernized women prefer fewer babies. Such discrepancies underline a known weakness of the Demographic Transition model: Not every culture will necessarily adopt the western ideal of a small nuclear family, even after women’s rights, health, and security conditions improve. So somewhere around 1950, our fastest population growth rates left the OECD countries18 and went to the developing world. Because the base population levels in the latter are so much larger, the resulting surge in world population has been nothing short of phenomenal. In most developing countries the spread between fertility and death rates, while narrowing, remains substantial. This second Demographic Transition is not yet finished, and unlike before, it involves the vast majority of the human race.
Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped Our World and Will Define Our Future by Ian Goldin, Geoffrey Cameron, Meera Balarajan
Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, conceptual framework, creative destruction, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, endogenous growth, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, guest worker program, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, labour mobility, Lao Tzu, life extension, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, Malacca Straits, mass immigration, microcredit, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, old age dependency ratio, open borders, out of africa, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, Richard Florida, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, spice trade, trade route, transaction costs, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, women in the workforce, working-age population
Many developing countries will be experiencing a “youth bulge” in the coming decades, and the growth in working-age populations will contribute to greater migration pressure. Growing Working-Age populations in Developing countries In forecasting future population trends, the concept of the “demographic transition” can explain why the age distribution within nations and regions changes over time. The demographic transition is the movement of a country—over several decades—from a pattern of high mortality and high fertility to one of low mortality and low fertility. Death rates typically drop faster than birth rates (which may actually increase due to better maternal health),50 and as a result, countries beginning the transition experience a population bulge. The age distribution becomes younger at this first stage of the demographic transition, and the working-age population increases annually—with more people entering the workforce than are leaving it. 51 These population changes are linked to broader socio-economic processes of development and urbanization—which improve incomes and access to health care and education—that lead mortality rates to fall.
The reason that cities have grown so fast in developing countries—aside from rural-urban migration—is because they were typically the first part of the country to experience the demographic transition. Health care services are more easily available and information is transmitted more quickly in urban areas, which leads mortality to decline before the trend takes hold in rural areas.52 Most highly populated countries in the developing world have recently passed this stage of accelerated population growth, which is currently contributing to growing numbers of working-age people. Historically, countries experiencing the first phase of the demographic transition have experienced high rates of emigration. This was certainly true of Europe in the nineteenth century, when a boom in the number of “migration-sensitive” young adults led to greater migration pressure.
Emigration from Sweden in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, for example, peaked when population growth was fastest and declined as pressures decreased and the large adult cohort entered into old age.53 Similarly, emigration from Germany was much greater than from France, where population increased at a relatively slower rate.54 Similar migration pressures are expected to accompany demographic transitions in developing countries.55 Hatton and Williamson argue that the growth in emigration from developing countries after the 1960s was related to the appearance of “fat” young adult cohorts—particularly in East Asia—just as the United States and other countries introduced less discriminatory immigration policies.56 The population bulge increases migration pressure, but whether this turns into actual migration depends on other factors at the receiving end. Figure 7.5. Population aged 15-64, medium variant projections, 1950-2050. United Nations. 2009. Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. Available at http://esa.un.org/unpp; accessed 29 May 2009. What we can say for certain is that working-age populations are already growing rapidly in some developing countries due to late demographic transitions. While many countries in East Asia are beyond the phase of their demographic transition when population growth peaks, other developing countries are still expecting significant population growth over the next forty years (see figure 7.5). Even after fertility declines, the total population continues to increase because the big cohorts born due to earlier higher fertility enter child-bearing age. The most dramatic effects will appear in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population will grow by a billion people between 2005 and 2050.
An Edible History of Humanity by Tom Standage
agricultural Revolution, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, Bartolomé de las Casas, British Empire, carbon footprint, Columbian Exchange, Corn Laws, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Eratosthenes, financial innovation, food miles, Haber-Bosch Process, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Louis Pasteur, Mikhail Gorbachev, special economic zone, spice trade, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, women in the workforce
Most developing countries, meanwhile, are now in the midst of their demographic transition. Of course, the reality is more complicated than this simple model suggests, due to other factors such as the effects of migration, the impact of HIV/AIDS in Africa, and China’s one-child policy, introduced in 1980. But having initially sustained a population boom, the green revolution is now tipping many countries, and consequently the world as a whole, into demographic transition. According to forecasts published by the United Nations in 2007, the world population is expected to reach eight billion around 2025, and to peak at 9.2 billion in 2075, after which it will decline. Research carried out in the village of Manupur, in the Indian Punjab, illustrates how the demographic transition has manifested itself on the ground. In 1970, men in the village all said that they wanted as many sons as possible.
A burgeoning population creates incentives to find new ways to increase the food supply; but greater availability of food also means that women are more fertile, and children are healthier and more likely to survive. So there is no simple answer. But history clearly shows that in cases where the greater availability of food enables a country to industrialize, there is a population boom, followed by a fall in the population-growth rate as people become wealthier—a phenomenon called “demographic transition.” In a preindustrial society, it makes sense to have as many children as possible. Many of them will not survive, due to disease or malnutrition. But once those that do survive are old enough to work in the fields, they can produce more food than they consume, so the household will benefit overall (provided that availability of labor is the main constraint on agricultural production). Having lots of children also provides security in old age, when parents expect to be looked after by their offspring.
In 1970, men in the village all said that they wanted as many sons as possible. But when researchers returned to the village in 1982, following the introduction of green-revolution crops, fewer than 20 percent of men said that they wanted three or more sons, and contraceptives were being widely used. “These rapid changes in family size preference and contraceptive practice are indications that the demographic transition will continue, if not accelerate, in rural areas experiencing the green revolution,” the researchers concluded. Similarly, Bangladeshi women had an average of seven children in 1981. Following the widespread adoption of green-revolution technologies in the 1980s and the rapid expansion of the country’s textiles industry in the 1990s, however, that figure has fallen to an average of two or three.
India's Long Road by Vijay Joshi
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, barriers to entry, Basel III, basic income, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, business climate, capital controls, central bank independence, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, colonial rule, congestion charging, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Doha Development Round, eurozone crisis, facts on the ground, failed state, financial intermediation, financial repression, first-past-the-post, floating exchange rates, full employment, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global value chain, hiring and firing, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, Induced demand, inflation targeting, invisible hand, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, Martin Wolf, means of production, microcredit, moral hazard, obamacare, Pareto efficiency, price mechanism, price stability, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, rent-seeking, reserve currency, rising living standards, school choice, school vouchers, secular stagnation, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, special drawing rights, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, universal basic income, urban sprawl, working-age population
In India, one of the obstacles to the formation of such companies was the reservation of hundreds of labour- intensive products for exclusive production by small firms. Small-scale industry reservations have been drastically pruned in recent years. But many obstacles to the growth of labour-intensive activities still remain, including strong disincentives to the use of low-skilled labour in both manufacturing and services.19 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: DIVIDEND OR DISASTER? The employment scenario described above is distinctly unattractive but it promises to become even more so in future. To make the point, some explanation is necessary of the ‘demographic transition’ that India is going through. The ‘transition’ arises from the fact that mortality and fertility rates in the population do not change at the same pace. When economic development begins, child mortality rates fall rapidly in response to improvements in public health. Women’s fertility rates fall too, but much more slowly, induced by the fall in child mortality (since fewer children are needed to achieve a desired family size), and by female education and birth- control policies.
What will happen to it in the coming decades is not certain but if India follows the normal pattern in other countries, it will rise substantially.20 There is evidence that demographic transitions can deliver a growth ‘bonus’ or ‘dividend’. Only to a small extent is this due to the availability of a larger proportion of the population for doing productive work. More important is the fact that working ages correspond to years of high saving, so the national rate of saving goes up. And since proportionately less has to be spent on feeding dependents, more is available for growth-promoting investment. Some estimates suggest that demography was responsible for one percentage point of East Asia’s rapid growth. In India too, there is doubtless a potential gain to be garnered. But the ‘bonus’ will not fall like manna from heaven: the putatively marvellous effects on work effort, savings, and investment that are associated with the demographic transition are conditional on the influx of new workers finding productive employment, i.e. employment in which labour productivity is high.
This was principally the result of high inflation and an over-relaxed monetary policy. The decline in the real rate of return on saving to negative levels reduced the incentive to save in the form of financial assets and diverted savings towards holding gold instead. (This is an example of the close connection between growth and macroeconomic stability.) Given the expected favourable effects of the demographic transition on savings, it should be possible to restore a high level of the household saving rate, and then increase it further, provided inflation is maintained at a moderate level of around 5 cent a year and financial sector reform continues to improve the efficiency of intermediation. Experience has shown that to avoid capital account crises, the current account deficit should not average more than about 2 per cent of GDP.
The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas
Airbus A320, back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Haber-Bosch Process, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Negawatt, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, planetary scale, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, Stewart Brand, University of East Anglia
Second, the amount of land space taken up by cities is actually relatively small compared with the number of people they shelter: Satellite image composites show that urban sites cover only 2.8 percent of the Earth’s land; accordingly the UN estimates that about 3.3 billion people occupy an area less than half the size of Australia.65 Imagine all these people forced to fan out into the countryside in some kind of Khmer Rouge-style Year Zero experiment: The result would be a global ecological disaster. This gainsays conventional environmental wisdom in several ways. Clearly, the best strategy to curb future population growth is to speed up the “demographic transition” in developing countries—and this transition toward women having fewer babies is inextricably linked both with increasing levels of prosperity and with urbanization. Therefore rising rates of economic growth and the expansion of cities are good news for the environment because—more than anything else—they will restrain the future growth in human population. Moreover, although the idea of getting close to the land in small-scale communities has a deep cultural resonance in some schools of environmentalist thought, in reality this is probably the worst thing that anyone can do.
Urbanization is good for sustainability because it reduces population growth and concentrates the overall human impact on the land in a smaller area. Handled properly, migration away from rural areas and into cities offers a huge opportunity for ecosystem protection and restoration. Our best hope for meeting the land use planetary boundary is therefore to encourage the trends toward rising prosperity and demographic transition in developing countries, in order to allow their forests and other important natural habitats to survive and regrow. Given the choice, most people around the world already find city life more attractive and varied than that in the countryside. Forget the “back to the land” self-indulgence of some disgruntled people in rich countries. Billions of people want to move to urban areas to achieve increasing prosperity and improve their standard of living.
That would be bad science as well as bad politics. For a start, it only follows that population reductions lead to emissions reductions if the factors affecting birth and death rates are themselves independent of economics. In the real world, the best way to reduce the growth in human populations is to encourage faster economic development, accelerated urbanization, and therefore an earlier demographic transition to the lower birth rates already experienced in the most affluent societies. But faster economic growth will mean higher use of energy and more emissions, everything else remaining equal. One way around this is to accept that population control must be authoritarian, as the environmentalist Jonathon Porritt appears to do in writing approvingly about China’s one-child policy, which he calls “the biggest single CO2 abatement achievement since Kyoto.”6 Population enthusiasts like Porritt also tend to ignore the fact that the biggest driver of increasing human numbers has been better life expectancies thanks to economic progress and modern medical science.
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, clean water, cosmic abundance, dark matter, demographic transition, Exxon Valdez, F. W. de Klerk, germ theory of disease, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invention of radio, invention of the telegraph, invention of the telephone, Isaac Newton, Mikhail Gorbachev, pattern recognition, planetary scale, prisoner's dilemma, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, stem cell, the scientific method, Thomas Malthus, zero-sum game
In little countries and big countries, capitalist countries and communist countries, Catholic countries and Moslem countries, Western countries and Eastern countries—in almost all these cases, exponential population growth slows down or stops when grirfcling poverty disappears. This is called the demographic transition. It is in the urgent long-term interest of the human species that every place on Earth achieves this demographic transition. This is why helping other countries to become self-sufficient is not only elementary human decency, but is also in the self-interest of those richer nations able to help. One of the central issues in the world population crisis is poverty. The exceptions to the demographic transition are interesting. Some nations with high per capita incomes still have high birthrates. But in them, contraceptives are sparsely available, and/or women lack any effective political power.
In 40 years, if the doubling time stays constant, there will be 12 billion; in 80 years, 24 billion; in 120 years, 48 billion. . . . But few believe the Earth can support so many people. Because of the power of this exponential increase, dealing with global poverty now will be much cheaper and much more humane, it seems, than whatever solutions will be available to us many decades hence. Our job is to bring about a worldwide demographic transition and flatten out that exponential curve—by eliminating grinding poverty, making safe and effective birth control methods widely available, and extending real political power (executive, legislative, judicial, military, and in institutions influencing public opinion) to women. If we fail, some other process, less under our control, will do it for us. Speaking of which ... Nuclear fission was first thought of in London in September 1933 by an emigre Hungarian physicist named Leo Szilard.
The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart by Bill Bishop, Robert G. Cushing
1960s counterculture, affirmative action, American Legislative Exchange Council, assortative mating, big-box store, blue-collar work, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, cognitive dissonance, David Brooks, demographic transition, desegregation, Edward Glaeser, immigration reform, income inequality, industrial cluster, Jane Jacobs, knowledge economy, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, music of the spheres, New Urbanism, post-industrial society, Post-materialism, post-materialism, Ralph Nader, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, stem cell, Steve Jobs, superstar cities, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, union organizing, War on Poverty, white flight, World Values Survey
., p. 226. 20. Stephanie McCrummen, "Redefining Property Values," Washington Post, April 16, 2006, p. A1. 21. Sarah Schweitzer, "Like Recycling? Cooking? Then Welcome Home," Boston Globe, September 3, 2006. 22. Ron Lesthaeghe and Lisa Neidert, "The Political Significance of the 'Second Demographic Transition' in the US: A Spatial Analysis" (paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, March 28–30, 2007). See also Ron Lesthaeghe and Lisa Neidert, "The Second Demographic Transition in the United States: Exception or Textbook Example?" Population and Development Review 32, no. 4 (December 2006): 669–98. 23. Émile Durkheim, Selected Writings, ed. Anthony Giddens (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1972), pp. 142–44. 24. Ibid., pp. 186–88. 25. Ibid., p. 175. 26.
The People's Choice: How the Voter Makes Up His Mind in a Presidential Campaign. New York: Duell, Sloan & Pearce, 1944. Lazarsfeld, Paul, Bernard Berelson, and William McPhee. Voting A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago. University of Chicago Press, 1954. Lesthaeghe, Ron, and Lisa Neidert. "The Political Significance of the 'Second Demographic Transition' in the US: A Spatial Analysis." Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, March 28–30, 2007. ———. "The Second Demographic Transition in the United States: Exception or Textbook Example?" Population and Development Review 32, no. 4 (December 2006): 669–98. Lindsey, Hal. The Late Great Planet Earth. Grand Rapids, MI. Zondervan, 1970. Lipset, Seymour Martin, and William Schneider. The Confidence Gap. Business, Labor, and Government in the Public Mind.
A Williams spokesman said, "The belief is that students will interact more with people who are different from them if their residence hall isn't segregated" (Schweitzer, "Like Recycling?") [back] *** * Lesthaeghe and those working in this field called the change in families that took place as the economy switched from farms to factories in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries the "first demographic transition." The change he saw beginning in the 1960s was tied to the gradual decline of industry and the rise of service employment Lesthaeghe called this the "second demographic transition." The change was gradual, of course, but it is interesting that in the unraveling year of 1965, the New York Times announced in a front-page story that the "shift in the nation's employment from goods manufacturing to services has become so pronounced that it is no longer correct to call the United States economy an 'industrial economy.'
Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty
accounting loophole / creative accounting, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, banks create money, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, central bank independence, centre right, circulation of elites, collapse of Lehman Brothers, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, distributed generation, diversification, diversified portfolio, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial intermediation, full employment, German hyperinflation, Gini coefficient, high net worth, Honoré de Balzac, immigration reform, income inequality, income per capita, index card, inflation targeting, informal economy, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, market bubble, means of production, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, open economy, Paul Samuelson, pension reform, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, refrigerator car, regulatory arbitrage, rent control, rent-seeking, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, The Nature of the Firm, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, trade liberalization, very high income, Vilfredo Pareto, We are the 99%, zero-sum game
The French Revolution did not create a just or ideal society, but it did make it possible to observe the structure of wealth in unprecedented detail. The system established in the 1790s for recording wealth in land, buildings, and financial assets was astonishingly modern and comprehensive for its time. The Revolution is the reason why French estate records are probably the richest in the world over the long run. My second reason is that because France was the first country to experience the demographic transition, it is in some respects a good place to observe what awaits the rest of the planet. Although the country’s population has increased over the past two centuries, the rate of increase has been relatively low. The population of the country was roughly 30 million at the time of the Revolution, and it is slightly more than 60 million today. It is the same country, with a population whose order of magnitude has not changed.
Demographic growth accelerated considerably after 1700, with average growth rates on the order of 0.4 percent per year in the eighteenth century and 0.6 percent in the nineteenth. Europe (including its American offshoot) experienced its most rapid demographic growth between 1700 and 1913, only to see the process reverse in the twentieth century: the rate of growth of the European population fell by half, to 0.4 percent, in the period 1913–2012, compared with 0.8 percent between 1820 and 1913. Here we see the phenomenon known as the demographic transition: the continual increase in life expectancy is no longer enough to compensate for the falling birth rate, and the pace of population growth slowly reverts to a lower level. In Asia and Africa, however, the birth rate remained high far longer than in Europe, so that demographic growth in the twentieth century reached vertiginous heights: 1.5–2 percent per year, which translates into a fivefold or more increase in the population over the course of a century.
It is important to understand that we are just emerging from this period of open-ended demographic acceleration. Between 1970 and 1990, global population was still growing 1.8 percent annually, almost as high as the absolute historical record of 1.9 percent achieved in the period 1950–1970. For the period 1990–2012, the average rate is still 1.3 percent, which is extremely high.3 According to official forecasts, progress toward the demographic transition at the global level should now accelerate, leading to eventual stabilization of the planet’s population. According to a UN forecast, the demographic growth rate should fall to 0.4 percent by the 2030s and settle around 0.1 percent in the 2070s. If this forecast is correct, the world will return to the very low-growth regime of the years before 1700. The global demographic growth rate would then have followed a gigantic bell curve in the period 1700–2100, with a spectacular peak of close to 2 percent in the period 1950–1990 (see Figure 2.2).
Longevity: To the Limits and Beyond (Research and Perspectives in Longevity) by Jean-Marie Robine, James W. Vaupel, Bernard Jeune, Michel Allard
Odense, Denmark, Odense University Press Acknowledgment The author thanks Kirill Andreev for his assistence in preparing the tables and figures. Towards a New Horizon in Demographic Trends: The Combined Effects of 150 Years Life Expectancy and New Fertility Models ]. Vallin', G. Caselli*' The hypothesis of a widespread and conclusive stabilization of the world's population, the focus of recent United Nations' forecasts, is obviously mer-ely a reference model - the demographic transition. It is fairly plausible that initially populations will tend to follow this model. However, on the one hand, this is by no means certain and, on the other hand, it is unlikely that after this "transition" things will continue as before. Regarding the first point, the United Nations' forecasts comprise, on both sides of the average hypothesis, "low" and "high" hypotheses whose difference with the former lies in the level to which fertility would tend, with mortality remaining unchanged (United Nations 1995).
To begin with, we must think out new possible fertility and mortality evolutions. We will examine, in the next two parts of our work, the consequences they would entail in the far future of the world's population, in terms of global size as well as of age structure. Thinking out New Fertility and Mortality Evolutions As early as 1966, during the 1st European Demographic Conference convened by the Council of Europe even before the prospect of a generalization of the demographic transition became plausible enough to be adopted as the central hypothesis of the UN forecasts, Jean Bourgeois-Pichat assumed that progress in the field of biology would some time or other bring about new schemes of demographic behaviours. Not only would increased longevity - becoming a factor of the population's aging - compel future societies to reconsider the distribution of the economic and social roles played by the different age cohorts, but also delaying menopause would make it possible for women to spread the constitution of their descent over time.
J Embryol Exp Morphol 76:283-296 Subject index E A ACE 132,133 ACE/DD 133 Age structure 7, 45, 57, 59 Ag(e)ing 131, 133, 134, 136, 140, 142, 144, 149, 151, 155, 165, 175 Ag( eling process 70, 73, 75, 109, 110, 113, 114, Education 92, 96 Elderly 92 Entropy 2,8 Environment 151, 165 Environmental factor 135, 175 Environmental risk 73, 123 115, 131, 137, 140 Alcohol consumption 100 Alzheimer's disease 107, 173, 174 Antioxidant 70, 74, 75 Antioxidant defense 139, 140, 142, 144, 149, 150, 151 Antioxidant enzyme 70, 139, 149, 150 ApoE 132 F Fertility 29, 30, 43, 44, 51 Fertility model 31, 32 Fertility rate 32-36 Forecasts 30, 43 Frailty 123 B G Birth rate 53, 54, 55 Gene 134, 157 Genetic componant 156 Genetic control 155 Genetic endowment 121, 124 Genetic factor 69, 123, 124, 132 Genetic structure 131 Genetic variant 156 Genome 131, 137, 156, 158, 165 Genotype 151, 157, 165, 175 Gerontogene 155, 156, 158, 159, 161 C Cause of death 36 Extrinsic 12, 13, 23, 24, 38 Intrinsic 12, 13, 23, 24, 38 Cellular senescence 134 Cell number 165, 166, 167, 175, 176 Census 95 Centenarian 19, 20, 77, 83, 92 Cognitive function 106 Compensatory adaptation 131, 135, 136 Compression of morbidity 110 D Data quality 92, 93, 103 Death rate 1, 3, 5, 8, 11, 15, 19, 22, 53, 54, 55, 92 Dementia 106-109 Demographic transition 29 Disease 107 DNA repair 70, 71 H Health status 91, 92, 101, 102, 103 Heritability 72, 121, 122 I Infant mortality 125, 126 180 Subject Index L Q Life duration 125, 127, 128 Life expectancy 3, 7, 8, 22, 26, 36, 38, 39, 42, 43, Quality oflife 109, 117 51, 54, 55, 69, 79, 80, 126, 176 Lifespan 69, 73, 74, 103, 132, 140, 144, 146, 150, 156, 158, 159, 161, 165, 166 Life table 1, 6 Longevity 1, 13, 25, 116, 117, 118, 131, 132, 137, 156, 158 M Maintenance process 70 Maintenance system, 72, 74 Marital status 99 Mobility 102, 103 Morbidity 38, 170 Mortality 1, 2, 5, 11, 13, 16, 22, 25, 26, 29, 30, 43, 51, 78, 80, 125, 170 Mutation 159, 161 N Naming latency 114, 115 Natural selection 70 Neuron 172-176 Non-genetic factor 165 Nutrition 75 R Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) 139, 140, 141, 143, 144, 149, 151 Repair system 72, Repair process 139, 140, 142 Risk Factor 170 Robustness 121 S Selection 121, 134 Natural selection 123, 131, 136 Selection forces 122 Senescence 70, 145, 165 Sex disparities 108 Sex distribution 96, 98 Sex ratio 81 Somatic damage 71, 72 Smoking 100 Stress response 70, 75 Successful aging 113, 115, 116, 117 Survival 2, 4, 5, 19, 26, 131 Survival curve 39, 127 Rectangularization of survival curve 6, 39 Derectangularization of survival curve 40-42 o Occupation 97 Oldest old 12, 15, 21, 23, 77 Only child 31 Oocyte 165, 167, 169, 170, 176 Organogenesis 165 -167 Oxidative stress 141, 144, 149, 151 Oxidative damage 73, 139, 140, 142, 143, 149, 151 p Parental age 123 -127 Phenotype 157 Physical ability 107 Predictor 116, 118 Projection 11, 139, 140, 151 Pro oxidant production 139, 140, 151 V Vulnerability 134-137
What Technology Wants by Kevin Kelly
Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Buckminster Fuller, c2.com, carbon-based life, Cass Sunstein, charter city, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, computer vision, Danny Hillis, dematerialisation, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, Douglas Engelbart, en.wikipedia.org, Exxon Valdez, George Gilder, gravity well, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, interchangeable parts, invention of air conditioning, invention of writing, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, John Conway, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, Lao Tzu, life extension, Louis Daguerre, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, off grid, out of africa, performance metric, personalized medicine, phenotype, Picturephone, planetary scale, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, refrigerator car, Richard Florida, Rubik’s Cube, Silicon Valley, silicon-based life, Skype, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Ted Kaczynski, the built environment, the scientific method, Thomas Malthus, Vernor Vinge, wealth creators, Whole Earth Catalog, Y2K
Estimated Long-Range World Population. Three United Nations scenarios (high, medium, low) for world population in the next 300 years, from 2000 to 2300, in billions. What’s going on here? As countries become developed, their fertility rates drop. This drop-off has happened in every modernizing country, and this universal decrease in fertility rates is known as the “demographic transition.” The problem is that the demographic transition has no bottom. In developed countries the fertility rate keeps dropping. And dropping. Look at Europe (chart on the next page) or Japan. Their fertility rates are headed to zero. (Not zero population growth, which they long ago sank past, but zero population.) In fact, most countries, even developing countries, see their fertility rates dropping. Nearly half of the countries in the world are already below the replacement level.
clocks clothing cloud computing coal power coevolution Cole, John Colonial America compass, magnetic complex adaptive systems complexity future scenarios of as long-term trend specialization and computer chips transistors in see also Moore’s Law computers digital storage in DNA increased software complexity of invention of multiple functions of obsolete specialty computer simulations computer viruses contingency choices in in convergent inventions convergence see also inventions, convergence of “Convergent Evolution” (McGhee) conviviality Conway, John Cooke, William corals Bryozoa cornets Correns, Karl Erich crafts Crichton, Michael Cro-Magnons, see Sapiens crossbows cryptochromes customization, personal Daguerre, Louis Darwin, Charles Davies, Paul Davis, Mike Dawkins, Richard DDT Dean, Bashford decentralization de Duve, Christian deforestation demographic transition Dennett, Daniel Denton, Michael desert environments de Vries, Hugo Diamond, Jared Didion, Joan dinosaurs convergent lineages of diversity cultural differences in of ethnic and social preferences excessive choices offered by fringe of intelligence as long-term trend uniformity in DNA invented alternatives to mutation rate in mysterious origins of self-organization of synthesis of DNA sequencing Dobe tribe dolphins intelligence of domestication animal crop independent inventions of double-entry bookkeeping du Chaillu, Paul Dunn, Mark Dyson, Freeman Earth First!
matter and nuclear production of requirements for sustainable Engelbart, Doug England entropy environmental issues atmospheric carbon dams deforestation Precautionary Principle and environments niche Europe fertility rates in feudalism in European Union evocative objects evolution accumulated genetic information in adaptation in anachronisms in archetypal forms in beauty in Cambrian explosion in chlorophyll and codiscoverers of coevolution in combinatorial common ancestors in contingency in convergence in of cornets “could be” life forms in current scientific understanding of DNA and exaptations in exotropy in experimental re-creation of of eyes of helmets historical vs. ahistorical forces in homologous incremental inevitability in natural selection in nonrandom variations in on other planets physical constraints on of proteins randomness and rerunning tape of specialization in of teeth transition sequence in triadic nature of vertical evolution, human acceleration of brain in coevolution with cooking in cultural cultural devolution and tool use in evolvability as long-term trend exaptations exotropy definition of dematerialization in entropy vs. in evolution information as metaphor of self-organization in trends of extinctions of megafauna of Neanderthals rate of eyes rhodopsin in retina of Farnsworth, Philo Ferguson, Niall fertility rates demographic transition of in Europe of hunter-gatherers in Japan replacement rate of feudalism Finite and Infinite Games (Carse) Finn, Bernard fire Fish Creek tribe Fisher, Richard flight convergent evolution of flapping-wing speed trend curve of flint knappers flint knives Florence, Hercules Flores Island hominids Florida, Richard food production Ford, Henry four-factor formula fractal patterns France Frank’s Life (Dunn) freedom civilization and latitude vs.
The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth by Robin Hanson
8-hour work day, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, brain emulation, business process, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, demographic transition, Erik Brynjolfsson, ethereum blockchain, experimental subject, fault tolerance, financial intermediation, Flynn Effect, hindsight bias, information asymmetry, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, Just-in-time delivery, lone genius, Machinery of Freedom by David Friedman, market design, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nash equilibrium, new economy, prediction markets, rent control, rent-seeking, reversible computing, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, smart contracts, statistical model, stem cell, Thomas Malthus, trade route, Turing test, Vernor Vinge
Today, such habits leave us with weak defenses against the super-stimuli of mass-produced food, drugs, music, TV, video games, ads, and propaganda. We thus believe and consume such things far more than is adaptively useful. The “demographic transition” is the tendency of societies to switch to having far fewer children as they become rich, often via new status norms transmitted via education and mass media (Jensen and Oster 2009; La Ferrara et al. 2012; Cummins 2013). Whereas in farming societies richer people tended to have more children, thus selecting for genes that promoted wealth, today richer people now have fewer children (Clark 2008, 2014). Although some evidence suggests that early during the demographic transition having fewer children led to having more grandchildren, it seems clear that fewer children now results in fewer grandchildren (Mulder 1998; Lawson and Mace 2011).
March 22. Mrazek, Michael, Michael Franklin, Dawa Phillips, Benjamin Baird, and Jonathan Schooler. 2013. “Mindfulness Training Improves Working Memory Capacity and GRE Performance While Reducing Mind Wandering.” Psychological Science 24(5): 776–781. Mueller, Dennis. 1982. “Redistribution, Growth, and Political Stability.” American Economic Review 72(2): 155–159. Mulder, Monique. 1998. “The Demographic Transition: Are we any Closer to an Evolutionary Explanation?” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 13(7): 266–270. Mullainathan, Sendhil, and Eldar Shafir. 2013. Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much. Times Books, September 3. Müller, Vincent, and Nick Bostrom. 2014. “Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion.” In Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence, edited by Vincent Müller.
Index A abstraction 102, 278, 281, 340 adaptations 128, 179, 180, 227, 313, 335 behavior 25–6 to new situations 2 adiabatic gates 79 advice 180, 187, 208–9, 356 on call 315–18 legal 271 on-call 315–18 prediction markets 255 relationship 172 safe-based 173 age 5, 10, 162, 201, 291, 325 peak productivity 11, 202–4, 356 agglomeration 215 aggression 175 aging 128, 129, 136, 169, 208, 358 air 75, 90–2, 95, 326, 360 pressure 95, 218 aliens 154, 364–5 alms 302 ancestors 1, 2, 29, 132, 310, 330, 358, 383 see also farming era; foragers animals 5, 16, 22, 24, 28, 73, 74, 87, 128, 147, 302 emulations of 105, 160–1 anti-messages 82 appearances 99–107 comfortable 101–3 merging real and virtual 105–7 of shared spaces 103–5 of virtual reality 99–101 application teams 210 archives 72, 80, 229, 271 frequency made 71 memory costs 70 message 81 art 203 artificial intelligence 6, 355, 370, 382 intelligence explosion 347–50 research 51–4, 60 artificial light 18 asexuality 10 assets 116, 181, 183, 196, 261, 273, 274, 363, 377, 378 assumptions 45–54 alternative 354–9 artificial intelligence 51–4 of brains 45–7 complexity of emulations 49–51 of emulations 47–9 attacks 106, 252, 354–5 auctions 220–1 see also combinatorial auctions audits 132, 172 authenticity 113, 305 autonomy 320, 321 B bacteria 62, 92 baseline scenarios 7, 36–7, 38, 44, 354, 359 base speed 70–1, 131, 222, 265 beauty 163 behavior, energy-efficient hardware and 80 beliefs, false/biased 261 bets 116, 173, 183, 187, 360 biases 40–4, 174 bipolar disorder 165 birth cohort 202, 325 bits 78, 80 blackmail 274 bodies 72–4, 103, 106, 167 quality of 74 bosses 172, 176, 200 bots 113–14 brain cells 46 brain emulations see emulations brain scanners 46 brain, the 6, 45–7, 341, 342, 346, 349 aging of 128 cell models 46 complexity of 49 emulating brain processes 59 function of 45 modeling 364 reaction time 72 size changes 357 synapses 78 brand loyalty 304 breach of contract 274 buildings 92–5, 191 bulk buying 231 Burj Khalifa, Dubai 93 business 179–88 combinatorial auctions 184–6 cycle fluctuations 197 institutions 179–80 new institutions 181–4 organizations 201 prediction markets 186–8 C capacities 341, 342, 343, 345, 346, 347 capital 190, 191, 193, 361 careers 199–202 castration 285 celebrities 212, 298, 299 charity 302–3, 376–7 childhood 11, 48, 208, 210–2 children 210–2, 303, 383 see also youth choices, regarding em world 367–79 charity 376–7 evaluation of 367–70 policies 372–6 quality of life 370–2 success 377–9 cities 17–18, 85–6, 215–17, 245, 303, 374 air-cooled 90–2 auctions 220–1 centers 86, 89, 90, 93–5, 137, 217–19, 232, 238, 251, 257, 290, 324 first em 360–1, 362 optimal size 216 peripheries 89, 217–19, 223, 324 structure of 217–19 transport of items 226 water cooled 90–2 civilization 131, 132, 133, 135 clans 9–10, 144, 227–9, 291, 299 clan-specific computer hardware 355 concentration 155–6, 160, 237, 238, 244–5 and finance 195 firm-clan relations 235–7 governance 258, 260–4 identity 304–7, 317 inequality between 248 managing 229–31, nostalgia 308 one-name em 155 sexuality 286 signals 300, 301, 302 stories 333–4 voting via mindreading 265 classes 10, 12, 16, 258, 268, 310, 326 lower 312, 313 upper 312, 313 Cleisthenes 269 climate 85–98 clumping 215–26 clutter 103 CMOS (complementary metal–oxide–semiconductor) materials 77 coalitions 266–8 cold war 252 collaboration 309–20 combinatorial auctions 93, 184–6, 220, 261–2 communication 28, 58, 65, 71, 76, 89, 126, 183 hardware 85, 86, 147 networks 65, 81, 125 commuting 224 competition 144, 149, 151, 168, 189 clan 155 efficiency 156–9 complexity 49–51, 340 computer capital 193 computer chips 77 computer gates see logic gates computers 46 computer security 61 conceptual art 203 conflict 243–55 congestion 182, 215, 216 conscientiousness 163, 165 consciousness 48, 49, 343 consensus theories 37–9 conservatives 327 consortiums 363–4 construal level theory 24, 38, 42, 318 contract law 275 conversations 314–15 cooling 86–9, 126 fluids 90–2 systems 88 towers 90 coordination 200, 231, 234 copies 51, 71, 112, 113, 229 copy identity 305–8 copying 119–21, 144, 151, 323 cosmic rays 58 costs 60, 131, 233, 234, 236, 238, 240 and bulk buying 231 business cycle 197 communication 353 of cooling 357 and speed 70 critics 381–3 cultures 25, 41, 321–3 attitudes toward death 137 fragmentation 18, 258, 326 future 28, 29 global 29 identity 303, 305, 307 proto-industry 18 D data centers 91 data redundancy 71 death 112, 134, 135, 136–8, 312 accidental 71 decentralization 183, 185 decision markets 187–8, 260–1 decisions 262 defense 354, 355 democracy 264–6 demographic transitions 25 descendants 1–2, 29, 365, 381, 383, 384 development, cost of 355 research and 359 disasters 112, 369 discrimination see inequality diversity 368 divisions 323–6 doubling time, of economy 190, 191, 192, 193–4, 201–2, 221 drama 332 dreamtime 23–6, 29, 186 Drexler, K. Eric 33 dust 103 E early scans 148, 150 earthquakes 93 eating 298 economic analysis, v economic growth 28 economics 37–9, 382 economy 130, 179, 190, 276, 278, 374 doubling time of 190–4, 201–2, 221 early em 360 growth of 10, 92 size of 194 efficiency 155–65, 278 clan concentration 155–6 competition 156–9 eliteness 161–3 implications 159–61 qualities 163–5 elections 182, 183, 265 eliteness 161–3 ems see emulations emotion words 217 emulations 2, 6–7, 130, 338 assumptions 47–8 brain 2 compared to ordinary humans 11–2 enough 151–4 envisioning a world of 34–7 inequality 244–6 introduction to 1–2 many 122–4 mass 308 models 48 niche 308 one-name 155–6 opaque 61 open source 61 overview of 5–8 precedents 13–15 slow 257 start of 5–11 summary of conclusions 8–11 technologies 46 time-sharing 65, 222 energy 70, 71, 74, 75, 82 see also entropy control of 126 influence on behavior 83 entrenchment 344 entropy 77–80 see also energy eras 13–14, 15 see also farming era; foraging era; industrial era present 18–21 prior 15–18 values 21–3 erasures of bits 81, 82, 83 logical78rate of 80 reversible 79 eunuchs 285, 343 evaluations 367–70 evolution 22, 24, 25, 26, 134, 153 animal 24 em 153, 154 foragers 24, 25, 238 human 134, 153, 227 systems 344 existence 119–26 copying 119–21 many ems 122–4 rights 121–2 surveillance 124–6 existential risk 369 expenses 357 experimental art 203 experts, fake 254–5 exports 87, 95, 224 F faces 102, 297 factions 268–70 factories 96–7, 190, 191, 192, 193 failures 208 fake experts 254–5 fakery 113–14 farmers 1, 5, 8, 13, 16–17 communities 216 culture 326–8 farming era 5, 13, 14, 190, 252 firms 253 inequality 243 marriages 289 stories 331 wars 251 fashions 257, 268, 298, 310, 325, 326 clothes 18 intellectual 301 local 296 music 28 fast ems 257 fears 343 feelings 217 fertility 25, 26 fiction 1, 2, 41, 334 see also science fiction finance 195–7 financial inequality 247 fines 273 firms 231–4, 245 cost-focused 233 family-based 232 firm-clan relations 235–7 managers 234 mass versus niche teams 239–41 novelty-focused 233 private-equity owned 232 quality-focused 233 teams 237–9 first ems 147–50 flexibility 184, 202, 206, 224, 288, 378 flow projects 192 foragers 1, 5, 6, 8, 24–5, 29, 156, 190, 238 communities 13 pair bonds 289 foraging era 14, 16 inequality 243 stories 331 forecasting 33–4 fractal reversing 79, 81 fractional factorial experiment design 115 fragility 127–30 friendship 320, 371 future, vi 1, 26, 28, 31–2, 381 abstract construal of 42 analysis of 382, 383 em 384 eras 27, 29 evaluation of 367 technology 2, 7 futurists 35 G gates, computer 77–8 gender 290–1, 325 imbalance 291–3 geographical divisions 326 ghosts 132–3 global laws 124 God 316 governance 197, 258–62 clan 262–4 global 358 governments 364 gravity 74, 101 grit 164, 379 groups 227–41 clans 227–9 firm-clan relations 235–7 firms 231–4 managing clans 229–31 mass versus niche teams 239–41 signals 299–302 teams 237–9 growth 14, 15, 27, 28, 29, 189–97 estimate 192–4 faster 189–92 financial 195–7 modes 14 myths 194–5 H happiness 42, 165, 204–5, 232, 238, 247, 253, 303, 311, 320, 339, 370–1 hardware 54, 56–60, 63, 65, 278 clan-specific 355 communication 86 computer 86 deterministic 58, 86, 97, 174 digital 58 fault-tolerant 58 parallel 63–5 reversible 82 signal-processing 46, 57, 59 variable speed 82 heat transport 91–2 historians vi, 35 history 31, 32, 41, 248, 301 leisure 204, 207 personal 111 homosexual ems 292 homosexuality 10 hospitals 302 humans 1, 5, 7, 8, 14 introduction of 13 I identical twins 227 identity 49, 303–8, 317 ideologies 326 illness 305 implementation of emulations 55–65 hardware 56–60 mindreading 55–6 parallelism 63–5 security 60–3 impressions 295, 300 incentives 180, 181, 182, 183, 274 inclinations 342 income tax 182 individualism 20 industrial era 18–21 firms 253 stories 332 industrial organization 158 industrial revolution 232, 363 industry 5, 6, 13, 14 inequality 243–7 information 109–17 fake 113–14 records 111–2 simulations 115–17 views 109–11 infrastructure 85–98 air and water 90–2 buildings 92–5 climate controlled 85 cooling 86–9 manufacturing 95–8 innovation 189, 193, 275–7 institutions 179–80 new 181–4 intellectual property 124, 125, 147, 276, 277, 324, 362, 378 intelligence 163, 194, 295, 297, 299, 346–7 intelligence explosion 347–50 interactions 83, 109–10 interest rates 131, 196–7, 224 J job(s) categories 153 evaluations 159, 233 performance 164 tasks 356 see also careers; work judges 133, 173, 174, 261, 262, 267, 270, 272, 277, 286 K Kahn, Herman 33 kilo-ems 224 Kingdom Tower, Jeddah 93 L labor 54, 143–54, 190, 361 enough ems 151–4 first ems 147–50 Malthusian wages 146–7 markets 237 selection 150–1 supply and demand 143–5 languages 16, 128, 172, 217, 278, 345 law 229, 271–3 efficient 273–5 lawsuits 274 leisure 100, 102, 129, 168, 207, 374 activities 329 fast 258 speeds 222 liability 229, 273, 274, 277 liberals 327 lifecycle 199–212 careers 199–202 childhood 210–2 maturity 204–5 peak age 202–4 preparation for tasks 206–8 training 208–10 lifespan 11, 245, 246, 247 limits 27–9 logic gates 78, 79 loyalty 115, 117, 297, 299 lying 205 M machine reproduction estimates 192–3 machine shops 192 maladaptive behaviors 26 maladaptive cultures 25 Malthusian wages 146–7 management 200 of physical systems 109 practices 232–3 manic-depressive disorder 165 marketing 331 mass labor markets 239, 324 mass market teams 239–41 mass production 96 mating 285–93, 320, 342 gender 290–1 gender imbalance 291–3 open-source lovers 287–8 pair bonds 288–90 sexuality 285–7 maturity 204–5 meetings 75–7, 310 memories 48, 112, 136, 149, 207, 221, 304, 307 memory 63–5, 70–1, 79, 145, 219 mental fatigue 170 mental flexibility 203 mental speeds see mind speeds messages 81–2, 104 delays 77 methods 33, 34, 37, 40, 41, 42 Microsoft 91 military 359–60 mindfulness 165 minds 10, 335–50 features 344–5 humans 335–9 intelligence 346–7 intelligence explosion 347–50 merging 358 partial 341–3 psychology 343–6 quality 74 reading 55–6, 265, 271, 310, 314 speeds 65, 194, 199, 221–4 see also speed(s) theft 10, 61, 62, 76, 124, 302 unhumans 339–41 modeling, brain cell 364 modes of civilization 13–30 dreamtime 23–6 era values 21–3 limits 27–9 our era 18–21 precedents 13–15 prior eras 15–18 modular buildings 94 functional units 49 Moore’s law 54, 59, 80 moral choices 303 morality 2, 368 motivation, for studying future emulations 31–3 multitasking 171 music 311, 312, 328 myths 194–5 N nanotech manufacturing 97 nations 39, 87, 159, 163, 184, 195, 216, 243, 244, 245, 253 democratic 264 poor 22 rich 22, 39, 73, 94, 216, 234 war between 259 nature 81, 303 Neanderthals 21 nepotism 252–4 networks, talk 237 neurons 69 niche ems 308 niche labor markets 239, 324 niche market teams 239–41 normative considerations 44 nostalgia 308 nuclear weapons 251 O office politics 236 offices 100, 102, 104 older people 204–5 see also aging; retirement open-source lovers 287–8 outcome measures 260 ownership 120 P pair bonds 286, 288–90, 292–3 parallel computing 63–5, 278, 279, 280, 353 parents 383 partial sims 115 past, the see history patents 277 pay-for-performance 181–2 peak age 202–4 period 64–5, 70, 72, 76, 110 reversing 79–83 perseverance 164 personality, gender differences 290 personal signals 296–9 phase 65, 76, 81, 83, 110, 222 physical bodies 73, 75–6 physical jobs 73 physical violence 103 physical worlds 81 pipes 87, 88 plants 16, 87, 190, 303 police spurs 358 policy analysis 372–6 political power 354 politics 257–70, 322, 333 clan governance 262–4 coalitions 266–8 democracy 264–6 factions 268–70 governance 258–62 population 125 portable brain hardware 251 portfolios 196, 264, 378 positive considerations 44 poverty 246, 247, 249, 250 em 147, 153, 325 human 338 power 175–7 power laws 243 prediction markets 184, 186–8, 252, 255, 274, 317 city auctions 220 estimates 231 use of 276 pre-human primates 15–16 pre-skills 143–4, 152–3, 158, 356 preparation for tasks 206–8 prices 181–4, 187 of manufactured goods 145 for resources 179 printers, 3D 192 prison 273 privacy 172 productivity 12, 163, 171, 209–10, 211, 371 progress 2, 46–7, 49, 52, 53, 54 psychology 343–6 punishments 229, 273 purchasing 97, 182, 183, 277, 304 Q qualities 163–5 quality of life 370–2 quantum computing 357 R random access memory (RAM) 70 rare products 299 reaction time 72–3, 76–8, 83, 217 body size and 73 physical em body 223 real world, merging virtual and 105–7 records 111–2 redistribution 246–50 regulations 28, 37–8, 106, 110, 123, 151, 159, 217, 221, 264, 356, 358, 359 religion 276, 311–2, 326 research 194–5, 376 retirement 110, 127, 129–33, 135, 170, 174, 221–2, 336–9 human 8 reversibility 77–80, 82, 83 rewards 159–60 rights 121–2 rituals 309–11 rulers 259 rules 164, 271–81 S safes 172–3 salt water 91 scales 69–83 bodies 72–4 Lilliputian 74–5 speeds 69–72 scanning 148, 151, 363 scans 148–50 scenarios 34–7, 354–9, 363, 364 schools v, 20, 164, 168, 181, 233, 295–6, 302, 309, 333, 382 science fiction v, 2, 6, 312 scope 39–40 search teams 210 security 60–3, 71, 101, 104, 110, 117, 231, 306, 354, 357 breaches 85, 117 computer 104, 252, 357 costs 76 selection 5, 24, 26, 112, 137, 150–1, 153, 158, 162, 175, 263, 292, 339, 346 self-deception 173, 261, 296 self-governance 230 serial computing 353 sexuality 285–7, 328 shared spaces 103–5 showing off 295–6 sight perception 341 signals 295–308 copy identity 305–8 groups 299–302 identity 303–5 personal 296–9 processing 46 sim administrators 116 simulations 115–17 singing 311 sins 312 size 69, 72, 73, 74, 75, 110 slaves 16, 60, 121, 123–4, 147, 149, 245, 302, 327, 342 sleep 18, 60, 83, 133, 165 sleeping beauty strategy 131 social bonds 239 social gatherings 267 social interactions 238 social power 175–7 social reasoning 342 social relations 323 social science 382 social status 258 society 12, 321–34 software 54, 126, 277–9, 355 software developers 280–1 software engineers 200, 278, 280 souls 106 sound perception 341 spaces 110–14 space travel 225 speculation 39 speed(s) 69, 110, 137, 245, 246, 332 alternative scenario 355, 358 divisions 325, 326 em 8, 10, 353–4 em era 353 ghosts 132, 133 human-speed emulation 47 redistribution based on 248 retirement 130, 131 talking 298 time-shared em 65 top cheap 69, 70, 82, 89, 133, 222, 280, 281 travel 329, 330 variable speed hardware 82 walking 74 spurs 9, 110, 136, 169–71, 271, 292 social interactions 171 uses of 171–4 stability 131, 132 status 257–8, 301 stories 32, 35, 102, 325, 330–3 see also fiction clan 333–4 stress 20, 103, 134, 137, 164, 313 structure, city 217–19 subclans 227, 229 conflicting 356 inequality between 248 subordinates 200 subsistence levels 249 success 377–9 suicide 138–9 supply and demand 143–5 surveillance 124–6, 271 swearing 312–14 synchronization 309, 318–20 T takeovers 196 talk networks 237 taxes 249–50, 337 teams 237–9, 296, 299, 301, 306, 307 application 210 intelligence 346 mass versus niche teams 239–41 training 204 technologies 362–4 temperature 85, 88–91 territories 374 tests 114–17 theory 37, 39, 143 tools, non-computer-based 279 top cheap speed 69, 70, 82, 89, 133, 222, 280, 281 track records 181, 255 training 147, 151, 208–10, 212 transexuality 10 transgender conversions 292 transition, from our world to the em world 359–62 transport 224–6 travel 18, 22, 29, 43, 75, 102, 215, 218–19, 303, 329–30 travel times 102 trends 353–4 trust 208, 236 clans 227, 228, 234, 235 maturity and 204, 205 Tsiolkovsky, Konstantin 33 tweaking 150, 151 U undo action 104–5 unhumans, minds of 339–41 unions 236 United States of America 23 uploads see emulations utilitarianism 370, 372 V vacations 207 values 21–3, 237–8, 322, 383, 384 variety 20, 23, 96, 156, 157, 160, 189, 199, 234, 298, 375 views 109–11, 381, 382, 383 virtual meetings 217 virtual reality 8, 102, 103–4, 112, 217, 288, 291, 362 appearances 99–101 authentication 113 cultures 324 design of 104 leisure environments 102 meetings 76 merging real and 105–7 nature 81 travel, 224voices, pitch of 297 voting 183, 265–6 W wages 9, 12, 124, 143–5, 245, 336, 358 inequality 234, 248 Malthusian wages 146–7 rules 121, 122, 123 subsistence 354 war 16–17, 36, 131, 134, 250–2, 327, 354, 361 water 87, 90–2 Watkins, John 33 wealth 23, 26, 245–6, 321–2, 325, 336–8 weapons 251 Whole Brain Emulation Roadmap (Sandberg and Bostrom) 47 Wiener, Anthony 33 wind pressures 92, 93 work 167–77, 327, 328, 331 conditions 169 culture 321, 322, 323, 324 hours 167–9, 299, 372 methods 202 social power 175–7 speeds 222 spurs 169–71 teams 237–9 workers, time spent “loafing” 170 workaholics 165, 167 World Wide Web 34 Y Year 2000, The (Kahn and Wiener) 33 youth 11, 30, 376 see also children Z zoning 184, 185
The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality From the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century by Walter Scheidel
agricultural Revolution, assortative mating, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, collective bargaining, colonial rule, Columbian Exchange, conceptual framework, corporate governance, cosmological principle, crony capitalism, dark matter, declining real wages, demographic transition, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, fixed income, Francisco Pizarro, full employment, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, John Markoff, knowledge worker, land reform, land tenure, low skilled workers, means of production, mega-rich, Network effects, nuclear winter, offshore financial centre, Plutocrats, plutocrats, race to the bottom, recommendation engine, rent control, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, Simon Kuznets, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, transatlantic slave trade, universal basic income, very high income, working-age population, zero-sum game
Modern research has emphasized the importance of responses to population growth and resource stress that increase productivity and thereby help ward off Malthusian crises. The most sophisticated neo-Malthusian models thus envision a ratchet effect in which population and production develop through tradeoffs between scarcity pressures and technological or institutional progress. Moreover, the Demographic Transition of the last 150 years is thought to have mitigated Malthusian constraints through a combination of runaway innovation coupled with declining fertility in the face of rising real incomes, a novel feature of modernity that cannot be observed in the same way in earlier periods of history. For this reason, Malthusian mechanisms are primarily relevant for our understanding of premodern societies, which are also the subject matter of this chapter.
This is a sobering finding considering that—just as in South Korea and Taiwan—its highly restrictive immigration policy had previously helped maintain a relatively egalitarian distribution of income before taxes and transfers.4 All these projections assume a considerable volume of ongoing immigration: without this demographic contribution, the European dependency ratio could be as high as 0.6 by 2050. The arrival of many millions of newcomers will thus merely mitigate the long-term consequences of the secular aging process. At the same time, immigration may test redistributive policies in unprecedented ways. In his pioneering study of what he labels the “Third Demographic Transition,” the eminent demographer David Coleman calculates that even on conservative assumptions about immigration rates and the fertility of immigrants, by 2050 the share of the national population that is of foreign origin (a concept whose definition varies by country) will reach between a quarter and a third in six out of seven countries he reviews: Austria, England and Wales, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden.
The sources and dimensions of heterogeneity are of vital importance: immigration and religious heterogeneity have a more powerful adverse effect on welfare state provisions than the presence of ethnoracial minorities. The first two of these factors have already become defining features of the European experience, and the likelihood of persistent migratory pressures from the Middle East and Africa will ensure their continuing and arguably growing relevance. In all of this, it is important to realize that Europe’s “Third Demographic Transition,” which will transform the composition of national populations in response to subreplacement fertility and immigration, is still in its early stages. Over the course of the next generation, it may alter established patterns of redistribution and inequality in ways impossible to anticipate. Considering the high costs of current systems and the disequalizing pressures exerted by aging, immigration, and growing heterogeneity, these changes are more likely to raise inequality than to hold it in check.7 Not all demographic factors are equally likely to have a significant effect on the further evolution of inequality.
Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing by Adam Greenfield
augmented reality, business process, defense in depth, demand response, demographic transition, facts on the ground, game design, Howard Rheingold, Internet of things, James Dyson, knowledge worker, late capitalism, Marshall McLuhan, new economy, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, pattern recognition, profit motive, QR code, recommendation engine, RFID, Steve Jobs, technoutopianism, the built environment, the scientific method
So if businesses from Samsung to Intel to Philips to Sony have any say in the matter, they'll do whatever they can to facilitate the advent of truly ubiquitous computing, including funding think tanks, skunk works, academic journals, and conferences devoted to it, and otherwise heavily subsidizing basic research in the field. If anything, as far as the technology and consumer-electronics industries are concerned, always-on, real-time any- and everyware can't get here fast enough. Thesis 29 Everyware is strongly implied by the needs of an aging population in the developed world. At the moment, those of us who live in societies of the global North are facing one of the more unusual demographic transitions ever recorded. As early childhood immunization has become near-universal over the last half-century, access to the basics of nutrition and healthcare have also become more widespread. Meanwhile, survival rates for both trauma and chronic conditions like heart disease and cancer have improved markedly, yielding to the application of medical techniques transformed, over the same stretch of time, by everything from the lessons of combat surgery, to genomics, to materials spun off from the space program, to the Internet itself.
To so many of us, the idea of living autonomously long into old age, reasonably safe and comfortable in our own familiar surroundings, is going to be tremendously appealing, even irresistible—even if any such autonomy is underwritten by an unprecedented deployment of informatics in the home. And while nothing of the sort will happen without enormous and ongoing investment, societies may find these investments more palatable than other ways of addressing the issues they face. At least if things continue to move in the direction they're going now, societies facing the demographic transition will be hard-pressed to respond to the needs of their elders without some kind of intensive information-technological intervention. Thesis 30 Everyware is strongly implied by the ostensible need for security in the post-9/11 era. We live, it is often said, in a surveillance society, a regime of observation and control with tendrils that run much deeper than the camera on the subway platform, or even the unique identifier that lets authorities trace the movements of each transit-pass user.
3D printing, assortative mating, call centre, clean water, commoditize, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Edward Glaeser, extreme commuting, feminist movement, financial independence, Firefox, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Home mortgage interest deduction, income inequality, informal economy, Jane Jacobs, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, late capitalism, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, mass immigration, McMansion, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, off grid, oil shock, PageRank, Ponzi scheme, positional goods, post-industrial society, Post-materialism, post-materialism, principal–agent problem, recommendation engine, Richard Florida, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, statistical model, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Great Moderation, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, women in the workforce, Yom Kippur War
While Malthus could be said to have been right for most of the 13,000 years of human history during which the domestication of plants and animals has taken place, he certainly did not anticipate two phenomena: (1) the Agricultural (and Industrial) revolutions, which greatly improved living standards through increased production; and (2) the demographic transition, which slowed the rate of human population growth. The interplay of these two developments in human history is complicated and the source of much debate; needless to say, humans are not the mindless copulating rabbits that Malthus had presupposed. In fact, the average number of children started declining in the West well before modern contraception was available. We have seen demographic transitions—coupled with economic development—in other areas of the globe such as Asia and Latin America of late. Meanwhile, in the effort to produce more food on limited land, technologies like crop rotation and the seed drill soon led to industrial technologies, which, in turn, led to urbanization (the agglomeration of human populations in cities to work in factories) and the gradual end of the agrarian lifestyle. 7.
Plenitude: The New Economics of True Wealth by Juliet B. Schor
Asian financial crisis, big-box store, business climate, carbon footprint, cleantech, Community Supported Agriculture, creative destruction, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, deskilling, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, Gini coefficient, global village, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, knowledge economy, life extension, McMansion, new economy, peak oil, pink-collar, post-industrial society, prediction markets, purchasing power parity, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, sharing economy, Simon Kuznets, single-payer health, smart grid, The Chicago School, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, Zipcar
Another argument was that known reserves of nonrenewable resources were not good predictors of future supplies, because if scarcities did develop it would pay to devote more effort to exploration and drilling, and reserves would expand. Alternatives for scarce fuels or minerals would be invented. Economists were sanguine about the possibility of surpassing physical realities with human ingenuity. Another key question was whether unabated exponential growth in population was a reasonable assumption. Europe and North America had already experienced their demographic transitions, with declining birth rates. China and India would not be far behind. Population fears had surfaced at the moment of maximal growth, without enough credit given to counteracting forces. This is a point that was relevant to the model more generally. The no-adaptation, or standard run, scenario that yielded the worst outcome was unlikely, because its negative effects would call forth responses, a point the systems dynamics researchers understood well.
Economists have seen the very idea of ecological limits as a rehash of the discredited theories of the early nineteenth-century political economist Thomas Malthus. Malthus believed that population growth would outrun increases in agricultural productivity, so that food production would fail to keep up with mouths to feed. He foresaw rising poverty and famines. The standard view is that he got it wrong, given the tremendous increases in agricultural productivity and the demographic transition toward lower birth rates. (With a sixth of the world’s population, or a billion people, already hungry, 1.4 billion living in one-dollar-per-day poverty, rising food prices, and intensifying competition for land between energy and food uses, one might be forgiven for wondering if the case against Malthus isn’t absolutely closed.) Neo-Malthusians, as the Limits school was branded, were thought to have repeated Malthus’s mistakes.
delayed gratification, demographic transition, Donald Trump, financial independence, happiness index / gross national happiness, index card, Mason jar, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, risk tolerance, Skype, women in the workforce
At 3.0 (excluding China), poor nations’ TFR is nearly twice that of the wealthier West, and these countries will provide virtually all the extra 3 billion people expected to inhabit our planet by mid-century. As for what explains the drastic disparity between family size in the West and the rest, sure, we have readier access to contraception. But medical technology is only one piece of the puzzle. During the Industrial Revolution, Western fertility rates plunged in a similar fashion. This so-called “demographic transition” is usually attributed to the conversion from a rural agrarian economy to an urban industrialized one, and thus to children’s shift from financial asset to financial burden. But what is fascinating about the abrupt decrease in family size at the turn of the last century is that it was accomplished without the Pill. Without diaphragms, IUDs, spermicides, vaginal sponges, estrogen patches, or commercial condoms.
Whether through abstinence, backstreet abortion, infanticide, or the rhythm method, people who couldn’t afford more children didn’t have them. Therefore the increased availability of reliable contraception around 1960 no more than partially explains plummeting birthrates thereafter. The difference between Germany and Niger isn’t pharmaceutical; it’s cultural. I propose that we have now experienced a second demographic transition, which cannot be attributed to economics. In both America and Europe the engine driving the “birth dearth” among white, educated elites is existential. * * * To be ridiculously sweeping: baby boomers and their offspring have shifted emphasis from the communal to the individual, from the future to the present, from virtue to personal satisfaction. Increasingly secular, we pledge allegiance to lowercase gods of our private devising.
Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future by Johan Norberg
agricultural Revolution, anti-communist, availability heuristic, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, British Empire, business climate, clean water, continuation of politics by other means, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, demographic transition, desegregation, Donald Trump, Flynn Effect, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, Gunnar Myrdal, Haber-Bosch Process, Hans Island, Hans Rosling, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, income inequality, income per capita, indoor plumbing, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, John Snow's cholera map, Kibera, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, more computing power than Apollo, moveable type in China, Naomi Klein, open economy, place-making, Rosa Parks, sexual politics, special economic zone, Steven Pinker, telerobotics, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transatlantic slave trade, very high income, working poor, Xiaogang Anhui farmers, zero-sum game
Quite possibly, the most important long-term effect of the Green Revolution was that it reduced the number of mouths that had to be fed, long-term. When children began to survive to adulthood, parents began to have fewer children. The demographic transition that the West has already gone through is now being repeated across the developing world. The neo-Malthusians claimed this wouldn’t happen at all, but in fact it has happened much faster in low- and middle-income countries. Between 1950–5 and 2010–15, the number of children per woman declined from 6.1 to 2.6. The unprecedented demographic transition that took the Western world 200 years was repeated by the developing world in just sixty years. In East Asia, it declined from 5.6 to 1.6, in South Asia from 6 to 2.6, and in Latin America from 5.9 to 2.2. The region where the transition has been slower is also the one with the least progress in wealth, health and education, but even in sub-Saharan Africa the fertility rate has declined, from 6.6 to 5.1, and according to the UN projections, it will decline to four in 2030 and to three in 2050.34 The combination of more food per hectare and smaller families will mean that the increase in farmland has almost slowed to a halt, which will be a huge boon to biological diversity in the coming century.
3D printing, Asian financial crisis, backtesting, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, business climate, business process, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, colonial rule, Commodity Super-Cycle, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, currency peg, dark matter, debt deflation, deglobalization, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Freestyle chess, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, inflation targeting, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, liberal capitalism, Malacca Straits, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, mass immigration, megacity, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, mittelstand, moral hazard, New Economic Geography, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, pets.com, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price stability, Productivity paradox, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, secular stagnation, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Kuznets, smart cities, Snapchat, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, The Future of Employment, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, trade route, tulip mania, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, unorthodox policies, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, working-age population
Chapter 1: People Matter 1 Rick Gladstone, “India Will Be Most Populous Country Sooner Than Thought.” New York Times, July 29, 2015. 2 Charles S. Pearson, On the Cusp: From Population Boom to Bust (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015). 3 Tristin Hopper, “A History of the Baby Bonus: Tories Now Tout Benefits of Program They Once Axed,” National Post, July 13, 2015. 4 Richard F. Hokenson, “Retiring the Current Model of Retirement,” Hokenson Research, March 2004. 5 Andrew Mason, “Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developing and Developed Countries,” United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, August 31–September 2, 2005. 6 “Women, Business, and the Law 2014,” World Bank, 2013. 7 Peter Hessler, “Learning to Speak Lingerie,” New Yorker, August 10, 2015. 8 “Fair Play: More Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation,” International Monetary Fund, 2015. 9 Jim Yong Kim, “CNBC Excerpts: CNBC’s Sara Eisen Speaks with World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Alley’ Today,” transcript of interview by Sara Eisen, CNBC, October 1 2015. 10 Caglar Ozden and Mathis Warner, “Immigrants versus Natives?
“Democracy, Technology, and Growth.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 13180, June 2007. Alderman, Liz. “In Europe, Fake Jobs Can Have Real Benefits.” New York Times, May 29, 2015. Anderson, Jonathan. “Institutional Winners and Losers.” EM Advisers Group, December 18, 2014. ——. “How to Think About China.” EM Advisers Group, February 5, 2015. Anderson, Thomas M., and Hans-Peter Kohler. “Demographic Transition Revisited: Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity.” Population Studies Center, Working Paper, May 15, 2015. Andreessen, Marc. “This Is Probably a Good Time to Say That I Don’t Believe Robots Will Eat All the Jobs.” Blog.pmarca.com, June 13, 2014. Andrews, Nick. “Being Polish.” Gavekal Dragoomics, July 17, 2014. Aoki, Dajia. “Can Japan Overcome Decline in Labor Force.”
JP Morgan Research, November 21, 2014. Magaziner, Daniel, and Sean Jacobs. “South Africa Turns on Its Immigrants.” New York Times, April 24, 2015. “Malaysia’s Misguided Immigration Policy.” Foreign Policy Associations, 2011. Markoff, John. “The Next Wave.” Edge, July 16, 2015. Markus, Andrew. “Attitudes to Immigration and Cultural Diversity in Australia.” Journal of Sociology 50, no. 1 (2014): 10–22. Mason, Andrew. “Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developing and Developed Countries.” United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, August 31–September 2, 2005. Meeker, Mary. “Internet Trends: Morgan Stanley Executive Women’s Conference.” Kleiner Perkins Caufield Byers, October 1, 2013. Minder, Raphael. “Car Factories Offer Hope for Spanish Industry and Workers.”
The Evolution of Everything: How New Ideas Emerge by Matt Ridley
affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, altcoin, anthropic principle, anti-communist, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Columbian Exchange, computer age, Corn Laws, cosmological constant, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of DNA, Donald Davies, double helix, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, endogenous growth, epigenetics, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, falling living standards, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, George Santayana, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, hydraulic fracturing, imperial preference, income per capita, indoor plumbing, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, land reform, Lao Tzu, long peace, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, Necker cube, obamacare, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, price mechanism, profit motive, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, smart contracts, South Sea Bubble, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, women in the workforce
(One of my proudest possessions is the Julian Simon Award, made from those five metals.) Simon offered another bet to anybody who would take it: ‘I’ll bet a week’s or a month’s pay that just about any trend pertaining to material human welfare will improve rather than get worse.’ Nobody took up his offer before Simon’s untimely death in 1998. The solution to the population explosion turned out to be the Green Revolution and the demographic transition. Emergent phenomena rather than coercion and planning. Evolution, not prescription. It was an evolutionary, spontaneous and unplanned phenomenon that slowed population growth. Unexpected, unpredicted and unheralded, people started having smaller families because they were richer, healthier, more urban, more liberated and more educated. Not because they were told to. There is only one country where population control was sufficiently coercive to achieve its end – China – yet all that China achieved was a deceleration of population growth almost exactly the same scale as other countries that used almost no coercion at all.
The right thing to do about poor, hungry and fecund people always was, and still is, to give them hope, opportunity, freedom, education, food and medicine, including of course contraception, for not only will that make them happier, it will enable them to have smaller families. Abandon the creationism of technocratic pessimism, the repeatedly debunked doom-mongering of the scientific elite with its simplistic and static misunderstanding of the nature of resources, the easy resort to the lazy plural pronoun ‘we’ and the dreadful word ‘must’. Embrace instead the evolutionary, unplanned, emergent phenomenon of the demographic transition. Leave the last word to Jacob Bronowski, speaking at the end of his television series The Ascent of Man. Standing in a pond at Auschwitz-Birkenau, where many of his relatives died, he reached down and lifted up some mud: ‘Into this pond were flushed the ashes of some four million people. And that was not done by gas. It was done by arrogance, it was done by dogma, it was done by ignorance.
Nazi Greens – an inconvenient history. At Martindurkin.com. On the post-war population movement, Mosher, S.W. 2003. The Malthusian Delusion and the Origins of Population Control. PRI Review 13. On 1960s population books, Paddock, W. and Paddock, P. 1967. Famine 1975!. Little, Brown. And Ehrlich, P. 1968. The Population Bomb. Ballantine. Also Ehrlich, P., Ehrlich, A. and Holdren, J. 1978. Ecoscience. Freeman. On the demographic transition, Hanson, Earl Parker 1949. New Worlds Emerging. Duell, Sloan & Pearce. And Castro, J. de. 1952. The Geopolitics of Hunger. Monthly Review Press. On resources, Simon, Julian 1995. Earth Day: Spiritually uplifting, intellectually debased. Essay available at juliansimon.org. On the Club of Rome, Delingpole, J. 2012. Watermelons: How Environmentalists are Killing the Planet, Destroying the Economy and Stealing Your Children’s Future.
Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto by Stewart Brand
agricultural Revolution, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, back-to-the-land, biofilm, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, business process, Cass Sunstein, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dark matter, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Elon Musk, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, glass ceiling, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, Hernando de Soto, informal economy, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Kevin Kelly, Kibera, land tenure, M-Pesa, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, microbiome, New Urbanism, out of africa, Paul Graham, peak oil, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, stem cell, Stewart Brand, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thomas Malthus, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, wealth creators, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, William Langewiesche, working-age population, Y2K
Commoner’s argument was that population policies weren’t needed, because what was called “the demographic transition” would take care of everything—all you had to do was help poor people get less poor, and they would have fewer children. Ehrlich insisted that the situation was way too serious for that approach, and it wouldn’t work anyway: You needed harsh government programs to drive down the birthrate. The alternative was overwhelming famines and massive damage to the environment. I was for Ehrlich and against the ecosocialist Commoner. But Ehrlich’s predicted famines never came, thanks largely to the green revolution in agriculture, nor did the need for harsh government programs. Instead, Commoner’s thesis of demographic transition turned out to be mostly right, though in a way unanticipated by him or anybody else
accounting loophole / creative accounting, affirmative action, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bonus culture, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, call centre, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, disintermediation, Edward Glaeser, endogenous growth, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Financial Instability Hypothesis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hyman Minsky, If something cannot go on forever, it will stop - Herbert Stein's Law, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, industrial cluster, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, light touch regulation, low skilled workers, market bubble, market design, market fundamentalism, megacity, Network effects, new economy, night-watchman state, Northern Rock, oil shock, Pareto efficiency, principal–agent problem, profit motive, purchasing power parity, railway mania, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, Steven Pinker, The Design of Experiments, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Market for Lemons, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Spirit Level, transaction costs, transfer pricing, tulip mania, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, web application, web of trust, winner-take-all economy, World Values Survey, zero-sum game
The key seems to be the education of women, along with their participation in the work force, as much as the well-known “demographic transition” of a high enough level of income that it is no longer necessary to have many children as an investment for one’s old age.7 And there is not one of the rich countries with a birthrate above replacement level. Those such as the United States and United Kingdom whose populations are growing are attracting enough immigrants to offset declining “native” birthrates. In some cases, including Germany, Italy, Japan, and a number of eastern European countries, the demographic change under way is startling. Italy’s population, for example, is expected to shrink by a quarter between now and 2040, while the average age is likely to rise from 44 to 54. Among poorer countries, China faces the same unknown waters of demographic transition due to its strict one-child policy under authoritarian communism: two parent couples producing one child each makes for a rapidly shrinking population, and a disproportionately male one as so many baby girls have been aborted or killed in early infancy to ensure the sole permitted child is a son.8 Figure 5.
Losing Control: The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity by Stephen D. King
Admiral Zheng, asset-backed security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, capital controls, Celtic Tiger, central bank independence, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, credit crunch, crony capitalism, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Diane Coyle, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, financial innovation, fixed income, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, George Akerlof, German hyperinflation, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, income per capita, inflation targeting, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, liberal capitalism, low skilled workers, market clearing, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Naomi Klein, new economy, old age dependency ratio, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, price mechanism, price stability, purchasing power parity, rent-seeking, reserve currency, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, sovereign wealth fund, spice trade, statistical model, technology bubble, The Great Moderation, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, The Market for Lemons, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y2K, Yom Kippur War
For individual countries and regions, net migration rates are a very important influence to be discussed later in the chapter. 3. I have to admit that the ‘surge in optimism’ argument is rather unconvincing; to my mind, it sounds like an ex post rationalization. The study of demographics seems to be rather full of these kinds of arguments. 4. See, for example, David E Bloom, David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla, Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 2001). 5. There are, of course, exceptions to this general rule. Birth rates in Russia, Belarus, the Ukraine and Georgia are remarkably low: their populations are ageing through an absence of youth rather than a huge increase in the elderly. 6. For those familiar with simple monetary economics, the increase in spending represents an increase in the velocity of money supply. 7.
., Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism and the Economics of Growth and Prosperity, Yale University Press, New Haven, 2007 Bernanke, B., The Great Moderation, Federal Reserve, Washington DC, 2004 ———, The Global Savings Glut, Federal Reserve, Washington DC, 2005 Besley, T., ‘Principled Agents? The Political Economy of Good Government’, The Lindahl Lectures, Oxford, 2006 Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J., Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA, 2001 BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, London, June 2009 Buruma, I. and Margalit, A., Occidentalism: A Short History of Anti-Westernism, Penguin Press, New York, 2004 Chang, H.-J., Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective, Anthem, London, 2002 ———, Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism, Bloomsbury, London, 2008 Clark, G., A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2007 Collier, P., The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2006 Davies, N., Europe: A History, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1996 Desai, M., Marx’s Revenge: The Resurgence of Capitalism and the Death of Statist Socialism, Verso, London, 2002 Eichengreen, B., Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1996 ———, Sterling’s Past, Dollar’s Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition, Tawney Lecture, Economic History Society, Leicester, April 2005 ———, Global Imbalances and the Lessons from Bretton Woods, The Cairoli Lectures, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, 2007 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, New Challenges for Monetary Policy, Proceedings, Jackson Hole, WY, 1999 Ferguson, N., Colossus: The Rise and Fall of the American Empire, Allen Lane, London, 2004 ———, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, Allen Lane, London, 2008 Findlay, R. and O’Rourke, K., Power and Plenty: Trade, War, and the World Economy in the Second Millennium, Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford, 2007 Friedman, B., The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, Alfred A.
Inferior: How Science Got Women Wrong-And the New Research That's Rewriting the Story by Angela Saini
Albert Einstein, demographic transition, Drosophila, feminist movement, gender pay gap, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, out of africa, place-making, scientific mainstream, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, women in the workforce
pagewanted=all. Craig, Michael. “Perinatal Risk Factors for Neonaticide and Infant Homicide: Can We Identify Those at Risk?” Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine 97, no. 2 (2004): 57–61. Bribiescas, Richard. Men: Evolutionary and Life History. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2006. Sear, Rebecca, and David A. Coall. “How Much Does Family Matter? Cooperative Breeding and the Demographic Transition.” Population and Development Review 37 (2011): 81–112. Scommegna, Paola. “More U.S. Children Raised by Grandparents.” Population Reference Bureau, March 2012. https://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2012/US-children-grandparents.aspx. Muller, Martin N., Frank W. Marlowe, Revocatus Bugumba, and Peter T. Ellison. “Testosterone and Paternal Care in East African Foragers and Pastoralists.”
“Mortality in the United States, 2014.” US National Center for Health Statistics. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db229.htm. Accessed June 1, 2016. Hrdy, Sarah Blaffer. Mothers and Others: The Evolutionary Origins of Mutual Understanding. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2009. Sear, Rebecca, and David A. Coall. “How Much Does Family Matter? Cooperative Breeding and the Demographic Transition.” Population and Development Review 37 (2011): 81–112. Shanley, D. P., R. Sear, R. Mace, and T. B. L. Kirkwood. “Testing Evolutionary Theories of Menopause.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 274, no. 1628 (2007): 2943–49. Foster, Emma A., et al. “Adaptive Prolonged Postreproductive Life Span in Killer Whales.” Science 337, no. 6100 (2012): 1313. Brent, Lauren J.
The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature by Matt Ridley
affirmative action, Alfred Russel Wallace, assortative mating, Atahualpa, Bonfire of the Vanities, demographic transition, double helix, Drosophila, feminist movement, invention of agriculture, Menlo Park, phenotype, rent control, theory of mind, University of East Anglia, women in the workforce, zero-sum game
Successful men remarry more frequently and more widely than unsuccessful ones, and even with contraception preventing this from being turned into reproductive success, rich people still have as many or more babies as poor people.60 Yet western people conspicuously avoid having as many children as they could. Bill Irons of Northwestern University in Chicago has tackled this problem. He believes that human beings have always taken into account the need to give a child a ‘good start in life’. They have never been prepared to sacrifice quality of children for quantity. Thus, when an expensive education became a prerequisite of success and prosperity around the time of the demographic transition to low birth rates, people were able to readjust and lower the numbers of children they had in order to be able to afford to send them to school. Exactly this reason is given today by Thai people for why they are having fewer children than their parents.61 There has been no genetic change since we were hunter-gatherers, but deep in the mind of modern man is a simple male hunter-gatherer rule: strive to acquire power and use it to lure women who will bear heirs; strive to acquire wealth and use it to buy affairs with other men’s wives who will bear bastards.
All that the Fisher effect requires is for men to show a tendency to prefer the average face and runaway selection will take over: any man who deviates from the average preference has fewer or poorer grandchildren because his daughters are considered less beautiful than the average. It is a cruel, despotic fashion, one that enforces its pitiless logic at the expense of many a brilliant, kind and accomplished woman who happens to be plain, and one that has ironically been made worse by the demographic transition to prescribed monogamy. In medieval Europe, or ancient Rome, powerful men took all the beauties into their harems, leaving a general shortage of women for the other men, so an ugly woman stood a better chance of eventually finding some man desperate enough to marry her. That may not sound very just, but justice is rarely the consequence of sexual selection. Personalities So much for what attracts men in women.
Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis by Robert D. Putnam
assortative mating, correlation does not imply causation, deindustrialization, demographic transition, desegregation, ending welfare as we know it, epigenetics, full employment, George Akerlof, helicopter parent, impulse control, income inequality, index card, jobless men, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, Occupy movement, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, school choice, selection bias, Socratic dialogue, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the built environment, upwardly mobile, Walter Mischel, white flight, working poor
In north Fullerton, the home of Cal State Fullerton, where the median household income was roughly $100,000 in 2012, the percentage of Latinos more than doubled from about 10 percent to 25 percent. Though Fullerton is far from the most opulent part of Orange County, the draw for these Latinos is clear: high-quality schools, a thriving economy, and increasingly rich cultural pluralism. The net result of these demographic transitions is that economic inequality within the Latino community in Orange County has grown significantly during the past four decades, just as it has within the black community in Atlanta. The percentage of Latino families living on less than $25,000 a year (in inflation-adjusted dollars) nearly doubled between 1970 and 2010, from 13 percent to 25 percent, at the same time that the percentage living on more than $100,000 a year rose from 12 percent to 17 percent.
Carlson and Paula England, Social Class and Changing Families in an Unequal America (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2011); Andrew J. Cherlin, The Marriage-Go-Round: The State of Marriage and the Family in America Today (New York: Vintage, 2009); Frank F. Furstenberg, Jr., “Transitions to Adulthood: What We Can Learn from the West,” ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 646 (2013): 28–41; Sara McLanahan, “Diverging Destinies: How Children Are Faring Under the Second Demographic Transition,” Demography 41 (2004): 607–27; and Sara McLanahan and Wade Jacobsen, “Diverging Destinies Revisited,” in Families in an Era of Increasing Inequality: Diverging Destinies, eds. Paul R. Amato, Alan Booth, Susan M. McHale, and Jennifer Van Hook (New York: Springer, forthcoming 2015); Frank F. Furstenberg, “Fifty Years of Family Change: From Consensus to Complexity,” ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 654 (July 2014): 12–30; Wendy D.
additive manufacturing, air freight, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, British Empire, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, demographic transition, Fall of the Berlin Wall, food miles, ghettoisation, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Kibera, mass immigration, megacity, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, profit motive, race to the bottom, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, the built environment, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce
There seems little doubt that the twentieth century will stand out, perhaps for millennia to come, as a century of unique explosive growth in the human population. Homo sapiens – the naked ape with attitude and big ambitions – was at his most fecund. But demographers have long assumed that this great population surge will fizzle out during the twenty-first century, as most of the world’s women settle down to a conventional Western family life with mother, father and two children. They call this boom followed by stabilization the ‘demographic transition’. It described well enough the progress until recently of the first countries to industrialize. In Europe the annual death rate declined from more than thirty deaths per thousand people in the seventeenth century to below ten today. With fertility rates initially remaining high, population growth rates in Europe at the start of the twentieth century reached a peak of around 1.5 per cent a year.
He argues that female emancipation is the natural social consequence of the shift from agricultural societies, built round the family unit, to the modern industrial world. ‘Post-agricultural society does not need the traditional family,’ he says. ‘At the level of the individual, there is no necessity for either families or fertility. The individual has been freed.’ In other words, the fertility crash is the logical, but previously unseen, conclusion of the demographic transition. Perhaps so, but needs and wants can be different. Women may have children because they want them, not because they need them. The real answer may be simpler. Young women may no longer want to be wives and mothers. Tim Dyson, professor of population studies at the London School of Economics, says not having children has become a statement of modernity and emancipation. The spread of TV in particular has opened women’s eyes to a whole new world, and modern birth-control methods are helping turn some of their aspirations into reality.
Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines by Richard Heinberg, James Howard (frw) Kunstler
anti-communist, Asilomar, back-to-the-land, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, demographic transition, ending welfare as we know it, energy transition, Fractional reserve banking, greed is good, Haber-Bosch Process, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), land reform, means of production, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, Plutocrats, plutocrats, post-oil, reserve currency, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, the built environment, the scientific method, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, urban planning
He believed this could be done with the introduction of universal suffrage, state-run education for the poor and, more controversially, the elimination of the Poor Laws and the establishment of an unfettered nation-wide labor market. He also argued that once the poor had a taste for luxury, then they would demand a higher standard of living for themselves before starting a family. Thus...Malthus is suggesting the possibility of “demographic transition,” i.e. that sufficiently high incomes may be enough by themselves to reduce fertility. Malthus believed that a general famine would occur in the near future unless his policies were implemented; in this he was clearly wrong. There have indeed been localized famines in the decades since his death (e.g., in Ireland, the Soviet Union, China, North Korea, and Ethiopia), but these have provided only a minor brake on global population, which has surged by over 500 percent in the interim.
The Half-Life of Facts: Why Everything We Know Has an Expiration Date by Samuel Arbesman
Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrew Wiles, bioinformatics, British Empire, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, Chelsea Manning, Clayton Christensen, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, David Brooks, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, double helix, Galaxy Zoo, guest worker program, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, index fund, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, John Harrison: Longitude, Kevin Kelly, life extension, Marc Andreessen, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, Nicholas Carr, p-value, Paul Erdős, Pluto: dwarf planet, publication bias, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, social graph, social web, text mining, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation
“Conditions Favoring Major Advances in Social Science.” Science 171, no. 3970 (February 5, 1971): 450–59. 203 Do submerged islands…remain nation-states: “I Am a Rock, I Am an Island: How Submerged Islands Could Keep Their Statehood.” The Economist, May 26, 2011. 203 there are many who feel: “Tech Luminaries Address Singularity.” IEEE Spectrum, June 2008. 204 its development has gone hand in hand: This is known as the demographic transition. 204 his taxonomy had three kingdoms: Natural History Museum, London. “Carl Linnaeus.” http://www.nhm.ac.uk/nature-online/science-of-natural-history/biographies/linnaeus/index.xhtml. 205 the International List of Causes of Death was first adopted: World Health Organization. “History of the Development of the ICD.” Available online: www.who.int/entity/classifications/icd/en/HistoryOfICD.pdf 205 we are up to the tenth revision: The American version even has tens of thousands more classifications than the international version. 205 Just as being exposed: Johnson, Steven.
The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution by Francis Fukuyama
Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, California gold rush, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, currency manipulation / currency intervention, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, double entry bookkeeping, endogenous growth, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Francisco Pizarro, Hernando de Soto, hiring and firing, invention of agriculture, invention of the printing press, Khyber Pass, labour market flexibility, land reform, land tenure, means of production, offshore financial centre, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, principal–agent problem, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Right to Buy, Scramble for Africa, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), spice trade, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
Birdzell, How the West Grew Rich (New York: Basic Books, 1986); North and Thomas, The Growth of the Western World; Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf, eds., Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1 (Amsterdam: Elsevier/North Holland, 2005), particularly the chapter by Oded Galor, “From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory”; Oded Galor and David N. Weil, “Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond,” American Economic Review 90 (2000): 806–28. 8 Massimo Livi-Bacci, Population and Nutrition: An Essay on European Demographic History (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991), p. 12. 9 Livi-Bacci, Concise History of World Population, p. 28. 10 See Alan Macfarlane, “The Malthusian Trap,” in William A. Darrity Jr., ed., International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 2d ed.
. ———, and Seth Colby. 2009. “What Were They Thinking? The Role of Economists in the Financial Debacle.” American Interest 5(1):18–25. Furet, François. 1992. Revolutionary France, 1770–1880. Malden, MA: Blackwell. Fustel de Coulanges, Numa Denis. 1965. The Ancient City. Garden City, NY: Doubleday. Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 2000. “Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond.” American Economic Review 90:806–28. Galston, William A. 2010. Can a Polarized American Party System Be “Healthy”? Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Issues in Governance. Gati, Charles. 2008. “Faded Romance.” American Interest 4(2):35–43. Geertz, Clifford. 1973. The Interpretation of Cultures. New York: Basic Books. Gellner, Ernest. 1987. Culture, Identity, and Politics.
Imagining India by Nandan Nilekani
affirmative action, Airbus A320, BRICs, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, clean water, colonial rule, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, digital map, distributed generation, farmers can use mobile phones to check market prices, full employment, ghettoisation, glass ceiling, global supply chain, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), joint-stock company, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, land reform, light touch regulation, LNG terminal, load shedding, Mahatma Gandhi, market fragmentation, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, open economy, Parag Khanna, pension reform, Potemkin village, price mechanism, race to the bottom, rent control, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, Silicon Valley, smart grid, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, unemployed young men, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population
As Tom Friedman notes, these days rather than tell his children to finish their dinner because people are going hungry, “I tell my daughters to finish their homework because people in China and India are starving for their jobs.”j For a better idea of what has happened to our attitudes toward population, I spoke to the Harvard demographer David Bloom.k I met David for the first time at Davos in 2006, a decade after his paper titled “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia” made him famous much beyond academic circles—he is now one of those enviable scientists who can have a cocktail party audience hang onto his every word. David tells me that the key problem with early population theories was that “they were obsessed with overall population growth as an indicator, while ignoring the trends that lurked inside those figures.”
Dasgupta, Asim Datta, Aniruddha Dave, Surendra DCM D-Company Deewar Defense Research and Development Organization “defined contributions,” Delhi Delhi Development Act (1957) Delhi Development Authority (DDA) Delhi Metro Delhi Public School Delhi School of Economics (DSE) Delhi University (DU) Delimitation Commission Deming awards “demographic dividend,” “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia” (Bloom) Deng Xiaoping Deshpande. K. de Soto, Hernando Dharavi slum Dhoni, Mahendra Singh diabetes Dickens, Charles dietary issues direct benefit payments disease “double-hump dividend,” Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) Dreamworks SKG Dreze, Jean droughts Dube, S. C. Dumont, Louis Dutt, Sunil Dyer, General dysentery Dyson, Tim East India Company Economist economy, Indian: author’s views on ; of black market ; caste system and; closed vs. open; education and ; environmental impact of ; fragmentation of; global ; growth rate of; information technology (IT) in ; infrastructure and ; middlemen in ; migration in ; nationalization of ; “new” planned ; political impact of ; private vs. public sectors in ; reform of ; rural ; single market for ; subsidies in ; urban ; see also business, Indian Edison, Thomas Education Commission Education Guarantee Scheme (EGS) e-governance projects eGovernments Foundation Ehrlich, Paul Eisenhower, Dwight D. elderly population Election Commission electricity Electricity Act (2003) electronic order book system electronic voting machines (EVMs) Emergency Rule Employee Provident Fund (EPF) Employees’ Pension Scheme (EPS) Employees’ Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) energy resources ; see also specific types of energy engineers, software English language Enron Corp.
Poor Economics: A Radical Rethinking of the Way to Fight Global Poverty by Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo
Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, Cass Sunstein, charter city, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, congestion charging, demographic transition, diversified portfolio, experimental subject, hiring and firing, land tenure, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, microcredit, moral hazard, purchasing power parity, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, school vouchers, Silicon Valley, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thomas Malthus, urban planning
Gwatkin,“Political Will and Family Planning:The Implications of India’s Emergency Experience,” Population and Development Review 5 (1): 29–59 (1979), which is the source of this account of the forced sterilization episode during the Emergency. 2 John Bongaarts, “Population Policy Options in the Developing World,” Science 263 (5148) (1994): 771—776. 3 Jeffrey Sachs, Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet (New York: Allen Lane/Penguin, 2008). 4 World Health Organization, Water Scarcity Fact File, 2009, available at http://www.who.int/features/factfiles/water/en/. 5 Thomas Malthus, Population: The First Essay (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1978). 6 Alywn Young, “The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 120 (2) (2005): 243–266. 7 Jane Forston, “HIV/AIDS and Fertility,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 1 (3) (July 2009): 170–194; and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, “AIDS, ‘Reversal’ of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa,” NBER Working Paper W12181 (2006). 8 Michael Kremer, “Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (3) (1993): 681–716. 9 Gary Becker, “An Economic Analysis of Fertility,” Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries (Princeton: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1960). 10 Sachs, Common Wealth. 11 Vida Maralani, “Family Size and Educational Attainment in Indonesia: A Cohort Perspective,” California Center for Population Research Working Paper CCPR-17-04 (2004). 12 Mark Montgomery, Aka Kouamle, and Raylynn Oliver, The Tradeoff Between Number of Children and Child Schooling: Evidence from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1995). 13 Joshua Angrist and William Evans, “Children and Their Parents’ Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size,” American Economic Review 88 (3) (1998): 450–477. 14 Joshua Angrist, Victor Lavy, and Analia Schlosser, “New Evidence on the Causal Link Between the Quantity and Quality of Children,” NBER Working Paper W11835 (2005). 15 Nancy Qian, “Quantity-Quality and the One Child Policy: The Positive Effect of Family Size on School Enrollment in China,” NBER Working Paper W14973 (2009). 16 T.
The Meritocracy Myth by Stephen J. McNamee
affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, collective bargaining, computer age, conceptual framework, corporate governance, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, demographic transition, desegregation, deskilling, equal pay for equal work, estate planning, failed state, fixed income, gender pay gap, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, helicopter parent, income inequality, informal economy, invisible hand, job automation, joint-stock company, labor-force participation, low-wage service sector, marginal employment, Mark Zuckerberg, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, New Urbanism, obamacare, occupational segregation, old-boy network, pink-collar, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, post-industrial society, prediction markets, profit motive, race to the bottom, random walk, school choice, Scientific racism, Steve Jobs, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, upwardly mobile, We are the 99%, white flight, young professional
A standard measure of fertility is the total fertility rate (TFR), which is an estimate of the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime. This rate has fallen from an average of 3.7 children born to American women in a lifetime at the height of the baby boom in 1957 (U.S. Census Bureau 2005) to 2.08 by 2008 (U.S. Census Bureau 2012a, 68), which is close to the replacement threshold of 2.1 that would be required to maintain current population size over time. According to the demographic transition theory, as countries industrialize, rates of fertility are reduced primarily because the economic incentives for higher fertility are reduced. That is, in agrarian societies it makes sense to have large families in order to have more potential workers available to work on the family farm. But as societies shift to industrial economies, children become net economic liabilities instead of potential economic assets.
Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution by Francis Fukuyama
Albert Einstein, Asilomar, assortative mating, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, Columbine, demographic transition, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Flynn Effect, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, impulse control, life extension, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, presumed consent, Ray Kurzweil, Scientific racism, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), sexual politics, stem cell, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, Turing test
This looming crisis is real enough: Japan, for instance, will go from a situation in which there were four active workers for every retired person at the end of the twentieth century, to one in which there are only two workers per retired person a generation or so down the road. But there are other political implications as well. Take international relations.16 While some developing countries have succeeded in approaching or even crossing the demographic transition to subreplacement fertility and declining population growth, as the developed world has, many of the poorer parts of the world, including the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, continue to experience high rates of growth. This means that the dividing line between the First and Third Worlds in two generations will be a matter not simply of income and culture but of age as well, with Europe, Japan, and parts of North America having a median age of nearly 60 and their less developed neighbors having median ages somewhere in the early 20s.
Thus, a successful adjustment is seen as “a dynamic balance of desocialization and resocialization, where the desocializing tendencies are slowly eliminated while the resocializing forces expand” (Bar-Yoseph 1968: 43). The Melting Pot Ideology The school of thought presented above formed both the intellectual basis and legitimizing force of the melting-pot approach adopted by the Israeli absorption system. Based on the conception that sociocultural diﬀerences among Jewish communities are a symbol of “Diaspora existence,” it was expected that the demographic transition of 46 Jewish Diasporas to Israel—the ingathering of exiles—should be followed by a cultural-psychological mizzug galuyot or fusion of exiles (Ayalon, Ben-Rafael, and Sharot 1985). Behind the mizzug galuyot concept lies the belief of the IsraeliZionist establishment that cultural elements of Diaspora origin are part of a “false Diaspora identity” that should be replaced by an “authentic” Israeli one, so as to turn the ingathered exiles into a uniﬁed Jewish society in Israel (Halper 1985: 114).
A Brief History of Everyone Who Ever Lived by Adam Rutherford
23andMe, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, bioinformatics, British Empire, colonial rule, dark matter, delayed gratification, demographic transition, double helix, Drosophila, epigenetics, Google Earth, Isaac Newton, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, phenotype, sceptred isle, theory of mind, Thomas Malthus
., ‘A hypothesis to explain the high prevalence of pseudo-cholinesterase deficiency in specific population groups’, European Journal of Anaesthesiology 28 (2011), 550 Reich, D., et al., ‘Reconstructing Indian population history’, Nature 461 (2009), 489–94 Moorjani, Priya, et al., ‘Genetic Evidence for Recent Population Mixture in India’, The American Journal of Human Genetics 93: 3 (2013), 422–38 Bolund, Elisabeth, et al., ‘Effects of the demographic transition on the genetic variances and covariances of human life-history traits’, Evolution 69 (2015), 747–55 Rolshausen, Gregor, et al., ‘Contemporary Evolution of Reproductive Isolation and Phenotypic Divergence in Sympatry along a Migratory Divide’, Current Biology 19: 24 (2009), 2097–101 Excerpt from Eliot, T.S., ‘Little Gidding’ from Four Quartets (Faber and Faber, 1942). Reproduced with permission from Faber and Faber Ltd.
The Metropolitan Revolution: How Cities and Metros Are Fixing Our Broken Politics and Fragile Economy by Bruce Katz, Jennifer Bradley
3D printing, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, British Empire, business climate, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, collapse of Lehman Brothers, deindustrialization, demographic transition, desegregation, double entry bookkeeping, edge city, Edward Glaeser, global supply chain, immigration reform, income inequality, industrial cluster, intermodal, Jane Jacobs, jitney, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, lone genius, Mark Zuckerberg, Masdar, megacity, Menlo Park, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, place-making, postindustrial economy, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Richard Florida, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the market place, The Spirit Level, Tony Hsieh, too big to fail, trade route, transit-oriented development, urban planning, white flight
Metropolitan Areas Fuel American Prosperity.” Brookings, 2007 (www.brookings.edu/ research/reports/2007/11/06-metronation-berube). Berube, Alan, and Joseph Parilla. “Metro Trade: Cities Return to Their Roots in the Global Economy.” Brookings, 2012 (www.brookings. edu/research/papers/2012/11/26-metro-trade). Berube, Alan, and others. “The State of Metropolitan America: On the Front Lines of Demographic Transition.” Brookings, 2010. Burdett, Ricky, and Deyan Sudjie, eds. The Endless City. London: Phaidon, 2007. ———. Living in the Endless City. London: Phaidon, 2011. Calvino, Italo. Invisible Cities. New York: Harcourt Brace and Company, 1974. 245 11-2151-2 biblio.indd 245 5/20/13 7:00 PM 246 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY Castells, Manuel. The Rise of the Network Society. Cambridge, Mass.: Blackwell, 2009.
agricultural Revolution, airport security, Anton Chekhov, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial exploitation, complexity theory, computer age, crony capitalism, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Eratosthenes, European colonialism, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, illegal immigration, Internet Archive, John Snow's cholera map, Khyber Pass, manufacturing employment, megacity, Mercator projection, out of africa, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, special economic zone, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, UNCLOS, UNCLOS
Growth rates virtually everywhere are declining, and no population is likely to be double its present size in a couple of decades. This is not to suggest that population growth is no longer a concern. The Earth's population overall is still growing rapidly if unevenly, so that the present decade will see an additional 600 million people, most of them in the poorer parts of the world. But it is also clear that the world is in a momentous demographic transition. Today, optimistic projections suggest that the human population will never exceed 10 billion. That is far too many; the neo-Malthusians say that the planet should support no more than 2.5 billion. On the other hand it is far fewer than neo-Malthusian projections of the twentieth century predicted. The question is how much of the natural world still remaining will survive 106 WHY GEOGRAPHY MATTERS this transition.
Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom
agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anthropic principle, anti-communist, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Bayesian statistics, bioinformatics, brain emulation, cloud computing, combinatorial explosion, computer vision, cosmological constant, dark matter, DARPA: Urban Challenge, data acquisition, delayed gratification, demographic transition, Donald Knuth, Douglas Hofstadter, Drosophila, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, endogenous growth, epigenetics, fear of failure, Flash crash, Flynn Effect, friendly AI, Gödel, Escher, Bach, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, iterative process, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Netflix Prize, new economy, Norbert Wiener, NP-complete, nuclear winter, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, performance metric, phenotype, prediction markets, price stability, principal–agent problem, race to the bottom, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, reversible computing, social graph, speech recognition, Stanislav Petrov, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, strong AI, superintelligent machines, supervolcano, technological singularity, technoutopianism, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Nature of the Firm, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, Turing machine, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, World Values Survey, zero-sum game
Average income thus started to rise, first in the early-industrializing countries of Western Europe, subsequently in most of the world. Even in the poorest countries today, average income substantially exceeds subsistence level, as reflected in the fact that the populations of these countries are growing. The poorest countries now have the fastest population growth, as they have yet to complete the “demographic transition” to the low-fertility regime that has taken hold in more developed societies. Demographers project that the world population will rise to about 9 billion by mid-century, and that it might thereafter plateau or decline as the poorer countries join the developed world in this low-fertility regime.12 Many rich countries already have fertility rates that are below replacement level; in some cases, far below.13 Yet there are reasons, if we take a longer view and assume a state of unchanging technology and continued prosperity, to expect a return to the historically and ecologically normal condition of a world population that butts up against the limits of what our niche can support.
3D printing, active measures, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, autonomous vehicles, back-to-the-land, big-box store, bioinformatics, bitcoin, business process, Chris Urmson, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, Community Supported Agriculture, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, crowdsourcing, demographic transition, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, Frederick Winslow Taylor, global supply chain, global village, Hacker Ethic, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, Internet of things, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, labour mobility, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, mass immigration, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, new economy, New Urbanism, nuclear winter, Occupy movement, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, phenotype, planetary scale, price discrimination, profit motive, QR code, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Stallman, risk/return, Ronald Coase, search inside the book, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, social web, software as a service, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, the built environment, The Nature of the Firm, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, transaction costs, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, WikiLeaks, working poor, zero-sum game, Zipcar
McGregor, “Extrinsic Value Orientation and the Tragedy of the Commons,” Journal of Personality 68(2) (2000): 383–411, http://web.missouri.edu/~sheldonk /pdfarticles/JP00trag.pdf (accessed June 16, 2013). 28. David Madland and Ruy Teixeira, “New Progressive America: The Millennial Generation,” Center for American Progress, May 13, 2009, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/progres sive-movement/report/2009/05/13/6133/new-progressive-america-the-millennial-generation/ (accessed March 14, 2013). 29. Ibid. 30. Ronald Lee, “The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(4) (Fall 2003): 167–90. 31. “Kandeh K. Yumkella and Jeremy Rifkin Speaking about the Third Industrial Revolution,” UNIDO video, 3:27, November 29, 2011, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJYuMTKG8bc (accessed June 6, 2013). 32. Geoffrey Mohan, “Carbon Dioxide Levels in Atmosphere Pass 400 Milestone, Again,” Los Angeles Times, May 20, 2013, http://www.latimes.com/news/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-carbon -dioxide-400-20130520,0,7130588.story (accessed May 21, 2013); “Why Are Humans Responsible for Global Warming?
Naked Economics: Undressing the Dismal Science (Fully Revised and Updated) by Charles Wheelan
affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bretton Woods, capital controls, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, congestion charging, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, demographic transition, diversified portfolio, Doha Development Round, Exxon Valdez, financial innovation, fixed income, floating exchange rates, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, index fund, interest rate swap, invisible hand, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, libertarian paternalism, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Malacca Straits, market bubble, microcredit, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Network effects, new economy, open economy, presumed consent, price discrimination, price stability, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, random walk, rent control, Richard Thaler, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, The Market for Lemons, the rule of 72, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, trickle-down economics, urban sprawl, Washington Consensus, Yogi Berra, young professional, zero-sum game
Joe Klein, “Eight Years: Bill Clinton Looks Back on His Presidency,” The New Yorker, October 16, 2000, p. 201. 7. Elizabeth Kolbert, “Back to School,” The New Yorker, March 5, 2001. CHAPTER 9. KEEPING SCORE 1. Michael Cox and Richard Alm, Time Well Spent: The Declining Real Cost of Living in America, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 1997 Annual Report. 2. Oded Galor and David N. Weil, “Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond,” American Economic Review, vol. 20, no. 4 (September 2000). 3. Miriam Jordan, “Leprosy Remains a Foe in Country Winning the Fight Against AIDS,” Wall Street Journal, August 20, 2001. 4. Jane Spencer, “Why Beijing Is Trying to Tally the Hidden Costs of Pollution as China’s Economy Booms,” Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2006. 5. David Leonhardt, “If Richer Isn’t Happier, What Is?”
agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Haber-Bosch Process, invention of gunpowder, Louis Pasteur, Pearl River Delta, precision agriculture, recommendation engine, The Design of Experiments
Although this would require steep fertility declines in a number of populous countries with high fertilities—most notably in Nigeria and Pakistan (whose current fertilities are 5.9 and 5.0, respectively)—such reductions would not be unprecedented. China cut its fertility from around six in the mid1960s to less than two by the mid-1990s, and a number of smaller Asian countries accomplished their demographic transition even faster. On the other hand, it is easy to argue that similar performances are much less likely throughout sub-Saharan Africa or in parts of the Middle East. Consequently, the possibility that the global population will surpass 10 billion people by the year 2050 cannot be excluded—but even the UN’s latest high forecast variant of 10.7 billion means that the world’s population would not double during the first half of the twenty-first century. 59.
MacroWikinomics: Rebooting Business and the World by Don Tapscott, Anthony D. Williams
accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, Bretton Woods, business climate, business process, car-free, carbon footprint, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collaborative editing, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, colonial rule, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, demographic transition, distributed generation, don't be evil, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fault tolerance, financial innovation, Galaxy Zoo, game design, global village, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, hive mind, Home mortgage interest deduction, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jaron Lanier, jimmy wales, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, medical bankruptcy, megacity, mortgage tax deduction, Netflix Prize, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shock, old-boy network, online collectivism, open borders, open economy, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, scientific mainstream, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, social web, software patent, Steve Jobs, text mining, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, value at risk, WikiLeaks, X Prize, young professional, Zipcar
To answer that question, first consider the changing nature of today’s talent landscape. While North America and Europe still boast the largest pools of highly skilled creative professionals, it is unlikely to be the case for much longer. As we go forward the talent required to produce market-leading products and services will increasingly reside in locations such as Brazil, China, and India—largely because a seismic demographic transition unfolding today places the locus of growth in the global economy squarely in these developing markets. Two billion people from Asia and Eastern Europe have already joined the global workforce over the past decade and more will soon follow. Indeed, while developed countries worry about growing dependency ratios, most of the increase in world population and consumer demand will take place in developing nations.
Thank You for Being Late: An Optimist's Guide to Thriving in the Age of Accelerations by Thomas L. Friedman
3D printing, additive manufacturing, affirmative action, Airbnb, AltaVista, Amazon Web Services, autonomous vehicles, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, Bob Noyce, business process, call centre, centre right, Chris Wanstrath, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, demand response, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Erik Brynjolfsson, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Ferguson, Missouri, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Flash crash, game design, gig economy, global supply chain, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, indoor plumbing, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of the steam engine, inventory management, Irwin Jacobs: Qualcomm, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, land tenure, linear programming, Live Aid, low skilled workers, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, Maui Hawaii, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, pattern recognition, planetary scale, pull request, Ralph Waldo Emerson, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, supercomputer in your pocket, TaskRabbit, Thomas L Friedman, transaction costs, Transnistria, urban decay, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, Y2K, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game
Indeed, if we eat enough yogurt, exercise well, and practice yoga, we could live long enough to see it triple. It was three billion in 1959 and six billion in 1999 and, as I said, is now expected to hit 9.7 billion in 2050. I use the phrase “now expected to hit” to underscore the point emphasized by the Population Institute in its 2015 report: it’s true that the world generally is undergoing a demographic transition from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility; in many parts of the world that transition is well under way. In Europe, North America, and much of Latin America and East Asia, mortality and fertility rates have fallen so far so fast that they are now at, or below, the replacement rate, and population is actually declining in countries such as Taiwan, Germany, and Japan.
Immigration worldwide: policies, practices, and trends by Uma Anand Segal, Doreen Elliott, Nazneen S. Mayadas
affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, borderless world, British Empire, Celtic Tiger, centre right, conceptual framework, credit crunch, demographic transition, deskilling, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial independence, full employment, global village, guest worker program, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, low skilled workers, mass immigration, minimum wage unemployment, moral panic, New Urbanism, open borders, phenotype, South China Sea, structural adjustment programs, trade route, transaction costs, upwardly mobile, urban planning, women in the workforce
Conditions apply to candidates for admission to the program and eligibility for landed status. The program has been widely criticized (e.g., Calliste, 1991; Cohen, 1994; Cunningham, 1995; Stasiulis & Bakan, 1997a, 1997b; Villasin & Phillips, 1994) for its sexist and classist regulations, such as the ‘‘livein’’ requirement. The province of Quebec has its own immigration regulations. Canada’s Demographic Transition Primary Sending Countries The peak years of immigration in Canadian history were 1913, when more than 400,000 newcomers came to Canada, and 1957, when over 280,000 newcomers arrived. The periods with the least number of newcomers since 1860 are 1895–1896, when less than 20,000 immigrants entered the country, and the 1940s, when the number of immigrants decreased to less than 10,000 (CIC, 2002).
Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Arthur Eddington, Atahualpa, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Columbian Exchange, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, defense in depth, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of the americas, Doomsday Clock, en.wikipedia.org, falling living standards, Flynn Effect, Francisco Pizarro, global village, God and Mammon, hiring and firing, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Kitchen Debate, knowledge economy, market bubble, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, out of africa, Peter Thiel, phenotype, pink-collar, place-making, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Scientific racism, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, Sinatra Doctrine, South China Sea, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade route, upwardly mobile, wage slave, washing machines reduced drudgery
“Radiocarbon Dating of Charcoal and Bone Collagen Associated with Early Pottery at Yuchanyan Cave, Hunan Province, China.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 (2009), doi: 10.1073/pnas.0900539106. Boaz, Noel, and Russell Ciochon. Dragon Bone Hill: An Ice-Age Saga of Homo erectus. New York: Oxford University Press, 2004. Bocquet-Appel, Jean-Pierre, and Ofer Bar-Yosef, eds. The Neolithic Demographic Transition and its Consequences. Amsterdam: Springer, 2008. Bol, Peter. “This Culture of Ours”: Intellectual Transitions in T’ang and Sung China. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1992. ———. Neo-Confucianism in History. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2009. Bond, Gerard, et al. “Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate during the Holocene.” Science 294 (2001), pp. 2130–36.
The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined by Steven Pinker
1960s counterculture, affirmative action, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, British Empire, Broken windows theory, California gold rush, Cass Sunstein, citation needed, clean water, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, crack epidemic, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, demographic transition, desegregation, Doomsday Clock, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, experimental subject, facts on the ground, failed state, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, fudge factor, full employment, George Santayana, ghettoisation, Gini coefficient, global village, Henri Poincaré, Hobbesian trap, humanitarian revolution, impulse control, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, long peace, loss aversion, Marshall McLuhan, mass incarceration, McMansion, means of production, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Singer: altruism, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, Republic of Letters, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, security theater, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, South China Sea, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, Turing machine, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, V2 rocket, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, zero-sum game
Laura Betzig found that emperors often had thousands of wives and concubines, princes had hundreds, noblemen had dozens, upper-class men had up to a dozen, and middle-class men had three or four.115 (It follows mathematically that many lower-class men had none—and thus a strong incentive to fight their way out of the lower class.) Recently, with the advent of reliable contraception and the demographic transition, the correlation has been weakened. But wealth, power, and professional success still increase a man’s sex appeal, and the most visible clue to physical dominance—height—still gives a man an edge in economic, political, and romantic competition.116 Whereas instrumental violence deploys the seeking and calculating parts of the brain, dominance deploys the system that Panksepp calls Intermale Aggression.