27 results back to index
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AI winter, Airbnb, Atul Gawande, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, computer age, crowdsourcing, deskilling, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Firefox, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Google Glasses, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Internet of things, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, medical malpractice, medical residency, Menlo Park, minimum viable product, natural language processing, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, pets.com, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, Skype, Snapchat, software as a service, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the payments system, The Wisdom of Crowds, Toyota Production System, Uber for X, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Yogi Berra
Shekelle, “Health Information Technology: An Updated Systematic Review with a Focus on Meaningful Use,” Annals of Internal Medicine 160:48–54 (2014). 248 Julia Adler-Milstein, a professor at the University of Michigan Interview of AdlerMilstein by the author, June 27, 2014. 248 Ashish Jha … recalled the cheerleading about efficiency Interview of Jha by the author, July 2, 2014. 248 Spencer Jones and colleagues from RAND considered the IT productivity paradox S. S. Jones, P. S. Heaton, R. S. Rudin, and E. C. Schneider, “Unraveling the IT Productivity Paradox—Lessons for Health Care,” New England Journal of Medicine 366:2243–2245 (2012). 249 Peter Drucker … presciently described P. F. Drucker, “The Coming of the New Organization,” Harvard Business Review, January 1988. 250 “Organizational factors that unlock the value of IT” E. Brynjolfsson and L. M. Hitt, “Beyond the Productivity Paradox: Computers Are the Catalyst for Bigger Changes,” Communications of the ACM 41:49–55 (1998). 250 The business model of “creative destruction” J. Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (New York: Harper & Row, 1942). 250 In his 2012 book … Eric Topol E.
And for Lift Labs, does a physician “prescribe” Liftware? Will it be covered by Medicare? Should it be? The history of technology tells us that it is these financial, environmental, and organizational factors, rather than the digital wizardry itself, that determine the success and impact of new IT tools. This phenomenon is known as the “productivity paradox” of information technology. 38 The name comes from the fact that Gross and Tecco decided to launch the organization while sitting in Harvard Business School’s Rock Hall. Chapter 26 The Productivity Paradox You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics. —Nobel Prize–winning MIT economist Robert Solow, writing in 1987 Between the time David Blumenthal stepped down as national coordinator for health IT and became CEO of the Commonwealth Fund, he returned to Boston from 2011 to 2013 to manage the transition of Partners HealthCare from a homegrown electronic health record to the one made by Epic.
Dougherty, “Google Buys Lift Labs in Further Biotech Push,” New York Times, September 10, 2014. Chapter 26: The Productivity Paradox 243 “You can see the computer age” R. M. Solow, review of Manufacturing Matters: The Myth of the Post-Industrial Economy, by S. Cohen and J. Zysman, New York Times Book Review, July 12, 1987. 243 “I took my own medicine” Interview of David Blumenthal by the author, July 16, 2014. 244 As the economist Paul Krugman has observed P. Krugman, The Age of Diminished Expectations: U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s (Washington, DC: Washington Post Company, 1990). 244 Information technology falls into the same category E. Brynjolfsson and A. McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W. W. Norton, 2014). 244 In a seminal 1993 article E. Brynjolfsson, “The Productivity Paradox of Information Technology,” Communications of the ACM 36:66–77 (1993). 245 after electricity replaced steam engines P.
Social Life of Information by John Seely Brown, Paul Duguid
AltaVista, business process, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, cross-subsidies, disintermediation, double entry bookkeeping, Frank Gehry, frictionless, frictionless market, future of work, George Gilder, global village, Howard Rheingold, informal economy, information retrieval, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Just-in-time delivery, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, loose coupling, Marshall McLuhan, medical malpractice, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, Productivity paradox, rolodex, Ronald Coase, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Superbowl ad, Ted Nelson, telepresence, the medium is the message, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Y2K
New York Times, 15 March, sec. E, p. 5. . 1998. "More Colleges Plunging into Uncharted Waters of Online Courses." New York Times, 2 November, sec. A, p. 16. Arrow, Kenneth J. 1984. "Information and Economic Behavior." In Collected Papers, edited by Kenneth J. Arrow, 136 52. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Attewell, Paul. 1994. "Information Technology and the Productivity Paradox." In Organizational Linkages: Understanding the Productivity Paradox, edited by D. Harris, 13 53. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Baker, Nicholson. 1994. "Discards." The New Yorker, 4 April, 65 86. Balzac, Honoré de. 1989. The Rise and Fall of César Birotteau. Translated by Ellen Marriage. New York: Caroll & Graf. Bandyopadhyay, P. 1989. Rabrindrath Tagore. Calcutta, India: Anglia. Barley, Stephen R. 1996.
While multifactor productivity (which takes labor and capital into account) produced a growth rate of 2.5 percent from 1948 to 1973, it produced a rate of growth of 0.7 percent from 1973 to 1990. The numbers may seem abstract, but their significance can be directly grasped from average earnings. Had growth continued at the 1948 to 1973 rate, U.S. average income in 1994 would have been $47,600. It was, in fact, $35,300. 32 Economists refer to this surprising decline in productivity growth despite massive investment in computers as the "productivity paradox." Paul David, an economist at Stanford University, has argued, however, that the paradoxical slowdown was not such a paradox at all. Looking to the past, he points out that a slump in productivity followed the appearance of industrial-strength dynamos in the 1880s. Economically beneficial effects of the dynamo, David shows, did not appear in productivity data for another three decades.
To accomplish this, the company must actively manage its processes. Indeed, we can now see that the heart of managing a business is managing its processes: assuring that they are performing up to their potential, looking for opportunities to make them better, and translating these opportunities into realities. MICHAEL HAMMER, Beyond Reengineering 1 By the late 1980s the cumulative effects of the productivity paradox, the dramatic changes fostered by information technology, the general slowdown in the economy, and the rise in global competition were making business life hell.2 It was clear that current organization structures were not producing a "virtuous circle" between investment and production. But few could imagine what the right organization structure might be.3 The pressure to do something, anything, gave birth to innumerable fashions and fads in management.
The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies by Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, access to a mobile phone, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, British Empire, business intelligence, business process, call centre, clean water, combinatorial explosion, computer age, computer vision, congestion charging, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, employer provided health coverage, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, factory automation, falling living standards, Filter Bubble, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Freestyle chess, full employment, game design, global village, happiness index / gross national happiness, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, income per capita, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, informal economy, inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, law of one price, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, Mars Rover, means of production, Narrative Science, Nate Silver, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, Nicholas Carr, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, payday loans, price stability, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, Robert Gordon, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, six sigma, Skype, software patent, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, supply-chain management, TaskRabbit, technological singularity, telepresence, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, total factor productivity, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, winner-take-all economy, Y2K
.* FIGURE 7.1 Labor Productivity Productivity improvement was particularly rapid in the middle part of the twentieth century, especially the 1940s, 50s, and 60s, as the technologies of the first machine age, from electricity to the internal combustion engine, started firing on all cylinders. However, in 1973 productivity growth slowed down (see figure 7.1). In 1987, Bob Solow himself noted that the slowdown seemed to coincide with the early days of the computer revolution, famously remarking, “We see the computer age everywhere, except in the productivity statistics.”4 In 1993, Erik published an article evaluating the “Productivity Paradox” that noted the computers were still a small share of the economy and that complementary innovations were typically needed before general purpose technologies like IT had their real impact.5 Later work taking into account more detailed data on productivity and IT use among individual firms revealed a strong and significant correlation: the heaviest IT users were dramatically more productive than their competitors.6 By the mid-1990s, these benefits were big enough to become visible in the overall U.S. economy, which experienced a general productivity surge.
In 1987, Bob Solow himself noted that the slowdown seemed to coincide with the early days of the computer revolution, famously remarking, “We see the computer age everywhere, except in the productivity statistics.”4 In 1993, Erik published an article evaluating the “Productivity Paradox” that noted the computers were still a small share of the economy and that complementary innovations were typically needed before general purpose technologies like IT had their real impact.5 Later work taking into account more detailed data on productivity and IT use among individual firms revealed a strong and significant correlation: the heaviest IT users were dramatically more productive than their competitors.6 By the mid-1990s, these benefits were big enough to become visible in the overall U.S. economy, which experienced a general productivity surge. While this rise had a number of causes, economists now attribute the lion’s share of those gains to the power of IT.7 The productivity slowdown in the 1970s, and the subsequent speed-up twenty years later, had an interesting precedent. In the late 1890s, electricity was being introduced to American factories. But the “productivity paradox” of that era was that labor productivity growth did not take off for over twenty years. While the technologies involved were very different, many of the underlying dynamics were quite similar. University of Chicago economist Chad Syverson looked closely at the underlying productivity data and showed how eerily close this analogy is.8 As shown in figure 7.2, the slow start and subsequent acceleration of productivity growth in the electricity era matches well with the speed-up that began in the 1990s.
They not only made it possible to increase sales from $1 billion a week in 1993 to $1 billion every thirty-six hours in 2001, but also helped drive dramatic increases in the entire retailing and distribution industries, accounting for much of the additional productivity growth nationwide during this period.11 IT investment soared in the 1990s, peaking with a surge of investment in the latter half of the decade as many companies upgraded their systems to take advantage of the Internet, implement large enterprise systems, and avoid the much-hyped Y2K bug. At the same time, innovation in semiconductors took gigantic leaps, so the surging spending on IT delivered even more rapidly increasing levels of computer power. A decade after the computer productivity paradox was popularized, Harvard’s Dale Jorgenson, working with Kevin Stiroh at the New York Federal Reserve Bank did a careful growth accounting and concluded, “A consensus has emerged that a large portion of the acceleration through 2000 can be traced to the sectors of the economy that produce information technology or use IT equipment and software most intensively.”12 But it’s not just the computer-producing sectors that are doing well.
23andMe, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, bioinformatics, business intelligence, call centre, cloud computing, computer age, conceptual framework, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Danny Hillis, data is the new oil, David Brooks, East Village, Edward Snowden, Emanuel Derman, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Google Glasses, impulse control, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, informal economy, Internet of things, invention of writing, John von Neumann, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, obamacare, pattern recognition, payday loans, personalized medicine, precision agriculture, pre–internet, Productivity paradox, RAND corporation, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, skunkworks, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, The Design of Experiments, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!
Robert Solow, a Nobel Prize–winning economist, tartly summed up the quandary in the late 1980s, when he wrote, “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” Solow’s critique became known as the productivity paradox. Brynjolfsson, a technology optimist, has two answers for the skeptics. First, he argues, the official statistics do not fully capture the benefits of digital innovation. And second, he says that in technology, revolutions take time. To explain, Brynjolfsson points to his own work on technology and work practices, and to the research of others including a classic study by Paul David, an economic historian at Stanford. In his 1990 paper, “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox,” David observed that the electric motor was introduced in the early 1880s but did not generate discernible productivity gains until the 1920s.
Gallo’s use of, 123–33 Predix, 136 PricewaterhouseCoopers, 44 Principles of Scientific Management, The (Taylor), 208 Privacy Act (1974), 185 privacy concerns, 183–206 balancing privacy and data collection, 202–6 big data and personally identifying information, 187–92 cameras and, 183–86 data correlation and, 113 discrimination by statistical inference, 192–95 early computers and, 185–87 marketing and use of data, 195–97 social network data collection and, 197–202 productivity paradox, of computers, 72–75 Profiles in Performance: Business Intelligence Journeys and the Roadmap for Change (Dresner), 76 psycholinguistics, used for studying tweets, 199 Pulleyblank, William, 45–46, 47–48, 49 quantitative-to-qualitative transformation, data and, 7–8 “reality mining,” 206 Reisman, David, 155 Richardson, Tara, 106–7 Riedl, Paul, 156 Rock Health, 16 Rogers, Matt, 144 romantic relationships, social network research and, 87–88 Rometty, Virginia Haydock and, 156 IBM’s big data strategy and, 9, 42–45, 46, 47, 53–56 Rosenn, Itamar, 89–90, 94 Rotenberg, Marc, 204–5 Rothschild, Jeff, 86, 91–92, 98 Rubinsteyn, Alex, 180 Ruh, William, 134, 135–36 Sabre (Semi-Automated Business Research Environment), 46 Sage Bionetworks, 101–2, 170–71 SAS Institute, 52 satellite imagery, precision agriculture and, 129–32 Schadt, Eric background, 172–73 at Mount Sinai, 171–72, 173–74, 175 Sage Bionetworks and, 102 Schrage, Michael, 197 Science, 108 scientific management (Taylorism), 207–8 Seay, Mike, 188–89 Second Machine Age, The (Brynjolfsson and McAfee), 119–20 Shah, Rachana.
The Flat White Economy by Douglas McWilliams
access to a mobile phone, banking crisis, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, bonus culture, cleantech, cloud computing, computer age, correlation coefficient, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, George Gilder, hiring and firing, income inequality, informal economy, knowledge economy, low skilled workers, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, Peter Thiel, Productivity paradox, Silicon Valley, smart cities, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, working-age population
Most other countries likewise account software expenditure in the same way – the difference being that in the UK the FWE sector is larger and the mis-measurement more significant. IT investment as an enabling technology In the 1980s, economic studies seemed not to be able to find much evidence of information technology making much difference to economic growth. This was known at the time as the ‘productivity paradox.’6 Nobel laureate Robert Solow famously quipped “You can see the computer age everywhere except in the productivity statistics”.7 But micro studies since have provided compelling evidence that IT is not only a technology that enhances growth but also one that enables further productivity gains. A Google search lists over 64,000 references for ‘information technology as an enabler’.8 The modern thinking about IT investment is that it encourages improved and innovative products, services and methods of production.
Today Parliamentary debate (at least when in the public eye) is essentially point scoring against the other side and what passes for debate is in reality an overdose of cheap jibes. But you only have to go back to the 1960s to discover that there really was a Golden Age of Parliamentary debate. 4. ‘Understanding National Accounts’, François Lequiller and Derek Blades, 2016, Paris (www.oecd.org/std/na/38451313.pdf). 5. www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Pages/iadb/notesiadb/capexp.aspx 6. The productivity paradox of information technology’, Erik Brynjolfsson, Communications of the ACM 36 (12), 1993, pp66–77. 7. ‘We’d better watch out’, Robert Solow, New York Times Book Review, 12 July, 1987, p.36. 8 scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?start=20&q=information+technology+as+an+enabler&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&as_vis=1 9. ‘Sources of Economic Growth, Trade and Investment Analytical Papers No 6 of 18,BIS/DFID, 2011, London. 10. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/32468/11–723-sources-of-economic-growth.pdf 11. 10 November 2014. 12. www.itpro.co.uk/mobile/23478/o2-ceo-how-the-digital-revolution-is-driving-the-uk-economy#ixzz3K5a452gr 13.
The End of Work by Jeremy Rifkin
banking crisis, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, blue-collar work, cashless society, collective bargaining, computer age, deskilling, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, employer provided health coverage, Erik Brynjolfsson, full employment, future of work, general-purpose programming language, George Gilder, global village, hiring and firing, informal economy, interchangeable parts, invention of the telegraph, Jacques de Vaucanson, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, land reform, low skilled workers, means of production, new economy, New Urbanism, pink-collar, post-industrial society, Productivity paradox, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, strikebreaker, technoutopianism, Thorstein Veblen, Toyota Production System, trade route, trickle-down economics, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population, Works Progress Administration
By 1992 virtually every white collar worker in the country had access to $10,000 in information-processing hardware. 4 Despite the large investments, productivity continued to limp along, increasing at about 1 percent a year. Economists began talking about the "productivity paradox." Some, like Harvard's Gary Loveman, spoke openly about the utter failure of the highly touted technological revolution to whom so many had looked for their salvation. "We simply can't find evidence that there has been a substantial productivity increase-and in some cases any productivity increase-from the substantial growth in information technology," Loveman told his colleagues. 5 Just as corporate CEOs began to sour on the new information technologies, the productivity paradox suddenly disappeared. In 1991 output per hour increased by 2.3 percent. In 1992 productivity soared to nearly 3 percent, the best performance of any year in more than two decades. 6 MIT's Sloan School of Management published productivity data collected over a five-year period from 1987 to 1991 for more than 380 giant firms that together generated nearly $2 trillion in output per 92 THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION year.
The authors of the study, Erik Brynjolfsson and Lorin Hitt, found that between 1987 and 1991, return on investment (ROI) for computer capital averaged 54 percent in manufacturing and 68 percent for manufacturing and service combined. Brynjolfsson said that computers not only "added a great deal to productivity," but also contributed markedly to downsizing and the decline in the size of firms. 7 Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach who, along with others on Wall Street, had raised the issue of a productivity paradox, dropped his earlier reservations, proclaiming that "The U.S. economy is now entering its first productivity-driven recovery since the 1960s, courtesy of efficiency gains being realized through the use of information technology." Much of the gain in productivity, says Roach, is coming in white collar areas and in the service industries. 8 It became increasingly apparent to Roach and everyone else concerned that the failure to achieve productivity gains faster lay not with the new laborsaving, timesaving information technologies, but rather with outmoded organizational structures that were not able to accommodate the new technologies.
3D printing, Asian financial crisis, backtesting, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, business climate, business process, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, colonial rule, Commodity Super-Cycle, corporate governance, crony capitalism, currency peg, dark matter, debt deflation, deglobalization, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Freestyle chess, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, inflation targeting, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, Malacca Straits, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, megacity, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, mittelstand, moral hazard, New Economic Geography, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, pets.com, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price stability, Productivity paradox, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, secular stagnation, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Kuznets, smart cities, Snapchat, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, trade route, tulip mania, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, unorthodox policies, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, working-age population
EPWP1401, February 2014. 4 Ghada Fayad and Roberto Perrelli, “Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation,” International Monetary Fund, 2014. 5 Lant Pritchett and Lawrence Summers, “Asiaphoria Meets Regression to the Mean,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no. 20573, October 2014. 6 “Goodhart’s Law,” BusinessDictionary.com. 7 James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations (New York: Doubleday, 2004). 8 Ned Davis, Ned’s Insights, November 14, 2014. 9 “Picking Apart the Productivity Paradox,” Goldman Sachs Research, October 5, 2015. Chapter 1: People Matter 1 Rick Gladstone, “India Will Be Most Populous Country Sooner Than Thought.” New York Times, July 29, 2015. 2 Charles S. Pearson, On the Cusp: From Population Boom to Bust (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015). 3 Tristin Hopper, “A History of the Baby Bonus: Tories Now Tout Benefits of Program They Once Axed,” National Post, July 13, 2015. 4 Richard F.
“Learning from Freestyle Chess.” Credit Suisse Research, September 10, 2014. Miller, Arthur. “The Year It Came Apart.” New York, Dececember 30, 1974. O’Neill, Jim. “Building Better Global Economic BRICs.” Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper no. 66, November 30, 2001. Peters, Heiko, and Stefan Schneider. “Sluggish Global Trade—Cyclical or Structural?” Deutsche Bank Research, November 25, 2014. “Picking Apart the Productivity Paradox,” Goldman Sachs Research, October 5, 2015. Schofield, Mark. “Global Strategy and Macro Group Theme Book.” Citigroup Research, April 2015. Sharma, Ruchir. “Going In for the Big Kill.” Newsweek, October 2, 2006. ——. “Can India Still Be a Breakout Nation.” Economic Times, December 10, 2012. ——. “The Ever-Emerging Markets: Why Economic Forecasts Fail.” Foreign Affairs 93, no. 1 (2014). ——.
Ozden, Caglar, and Mathis Warner. “Immigrants versus Natives? Displacement and Job Creation.” World Bank, 2014. Patel, Raj. “The End of Plenty Review.” New York Times, July 24, 2015. Pathiparampil, Bino. “India-Pharma: US Market Remains a Great Opportunity.” IIFL Institutional Equities, 2013. Pearson, Charles. On the Cusp: From Population Boom to Bust. New York: Oxford University Press, 2015. “Picking Apart the Productivity Paradox.” Goldman Sachs, Global Macro Research, October 5, 2015). “PISA Scores: Why Would You Invest in Greece Instead of Poland?” Renaissance Capital, December 4, 2013. Redenius, Jeremy. “The Challenges to Feeding the World May Not Be So Challenging After All.” Bernstein Research, December 6, 2013. Redman, Alex. “Latin America in 2015: The Most Challenged Emerging Market Region.” Credit Suisse Research, March 9, 2015.
Blockchain Revolution: How the Technology Behind Bitcoin Is Changing Money, Business, and the World by Don Tapscott, Alex Tapscott
Airbnb, altcoin, asset-backed security, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Bretton Woods, business process, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, disintermediation, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, ethereum blockchain, failed state, fiat currency, financial innovation, Firefox, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, future of work, Galaxy Zoo, George Gilder, glass ceiling, Google bus, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, informal economy, interest rate swap, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, Lean Startup, litecoin, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, microcredit, mobile money, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, performance metric, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, price mechanism, Productivity paradox, quantitative easing, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, renewable energy credits, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, seigniorage, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart contracts, smart grid, social graph, social software, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, supply-chain management, TaskRabbit, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Nature of the Firm, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, Turing complete, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, unorthodox policies, X Prize, Y2K, Zipcar
8 Erik Voorhees, an early bitcoin pioneer and outspoken critic of the banking system, told us, “It is faster to mail an anvil to China than it is to send money through the banking system to China. That’s crazy! Money is already digital, it’s not like they’re shipping pallets of cash when you do a wire!”9 Why is it so inefficient? According to Paul David, the economist who coined the term productivity paradox, laying new technologies over existing infrastructure is “not unusual during historical transitions from one technological paradigm to the next.”10 For example, manufacturers needed forty years to embrace commercial electrification over steam power, and often the two worked side by side before manufacturers finally switched over for good. During that period of retrofitting, productivity actually decreased.
Interview with Vikram Pandit, August 24, 2015. 4. www.nytimes.com/2015/07/12/business/mutfund/putting-the-public-back-in-public-finance.html. 5. www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/overview. 6. http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/6729.html. 7. Interview with Hernando de Soto, November 27, 2015. 8. http://corporate.westernunion.com/About_Us.html. 9. Interview with Erik Voorhees, June 16, 2015. 10. Paul A. David, “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox,” Economic History of Technology 80(2) (May 1990): 355–61. 11. Joseph Stiglitz, “Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis,” revised version of a lecture presented at Seoul National University, October 27, 2009. 12. www.finextra.com/finextra-downloads/newsdocs/The%20Fintech%202%200%20Paper.pdf. 13. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-22/the-blockchain-revolution-gets-endorsement-in-wall-street-survey. 14. www.swift.com/assets/swift_com/documents/about_swift/SIF_201501.pdf. 15. https://lightning.network/. 16.
., 110 Prediction markets, 84–85, 98, 220, 224–25 Pretty Good Privacy (PGP), 40 Privacy, 27–28, 41–45, 141 bAirbnb and, 116 Big Brother, 244, 274–75 breakthrough, 42–44 free speech and free press, 243–46 government and, 202, 204, 274–75 implications, 44–45 preserving right of, 48–49, 202 principle of, 41 problem to be solved, 41–42 Privacy and Big Data Institute, 27, 275 Private blockchains, 67–68 Procter & Gamble, 95 Productivity, 93, 108, 110, 155, 162 Productivity paradox, 57 Proof of activity, 32 Proof of asset, 38 Proof of burn, 315n Proof of capacity, 32 Proof of disk, 262 Proof of Existence (PoE), 46 Proof of property, 38 Proof of stake, 32, 40–41, 262 Proof of storage, 32–33 Proof of work (PoW), 31, 32, 35, 41, 46, 241, 259, 262 51 percent attack, 67, 266–67, 269 Property management, in IoTs, 159–60 Property records, 8, 19–20, 51, 188–89, 193–95, 198 Property rights, 19–20, 48–49, 188–90 Prosperity, 4, 17–23, 182–88.
The Shock of the Old: Technology and Global History Since 1900 by David Edgerton
agricultural Revolution, anti-communist, British Empire, conceptual framework, deglobalization, dematerialisation, desegregation, deskilling, global village, Haber-Bosch Process, interchangeable parts, knowledge economy, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, means of production, megacity, microcredit, new economy, post-industrial society, Productivity paradox, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, spinning jenny, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, V2 rocket
Anthony Arundel and Barbara Mintzes, ‘The Benefits of Biopharmaceuticals’, Innogen Working Paper No. 14, Version 2.0 (University of Edinburgh, August 2004); Paul Nightingale and Paul Martin, ‘The Myth of the Biotech Revolution’, TRENDS in Biotechnology, Vol. 22, No. 11, November 2004, pp. 564–8. Conclusion 1. John B. Harms and Tim Knapp, ‘The New Economy: what’s new, what’s not’, Review of Radical Political Economics, Vol. 35 (2003), pp. 413–36. 2. P. A. David, ‘Computer and Dynamo: the Modern Productivity Paradox in a not-too-distant mirror’, in OECD, Technology and Productivity: the Challenge for Economic Policy (Paris: OECD, 1991). 3. Economist, 17 January 2004. 4. Observer, 8 April 2001. 5. Martin Stopford, Maritime Economics, second edition (London: Routledge, 1997), pp. 485–6. Select bibliography Books and articles Janet Abbate, Inventing the Internet (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1999) Itty Abraham, The Making of the Indian Atomic Bomb: science, secrecy and the postcolonial state (London: Zed Books, 1998) Michael Adas, Machines as the Measure of Men: Science, Technology and Ideologies of Western Dominance (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1989) Michael Thad Allen, The Business of Genocide: The SS, Slave Labor and the Concentration Camps (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2002) David Arnold, ‘Europe, Technology and Colonialism in the 20th Century’, History and Technology, vol. 21 (2005) Jonathan Bailey, The First World War and the Birth of the Modern Style of Warfare (Camberley: Strategic and Combat Studies Institute, Occasional Paper No. 22, 1996) — Field Artillery and Firepower (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2004) George Basalla, The Evolution of Technology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988) Arnold Bauer, Goods, Power, History: Latin America’s Material Culture (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001) Z.
Brand, How Buildings Learn: What Happens after They’re Built (London: Penguin, 1994) Ernest Braun, Futile Progress: Technology’s Empty Promise (London: Earthscan, 1995) Michael Burawoy, The Politics of Production (London: Verso, 1985) Cynthia Cockburn and Susan Ormrod, Gender and Technology in the Making (London: Sage, 1993) Hera Cook, The Long Sexual Revolution: English Women, Sex, and Contraception 1800–1975 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004) Caroline Cooper, Air-conditioning America: Engineers and the Contolled Environment, 1900–1960 (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998) P. A. David, ‘Computer and Dynamo: the Modern Productivity Paradox in a not-too-distant mirror’, in OECD, Technology and Productivity: the Challenge for Economic Policy (Paris: OECD, 1991) — ‘Heroes, Herds and Hysteresis in Technological History: Thomas Edison and “The Battle of the Systems” Reconsidered’, Industrial and Corporate Change, Vol. 1, No. 1 (1992) Michael Dennis, ‘Accounting for Research: new histories of corporate laboratories and the social history of American science’, Social Studies of Science, Vol. 17 (1987) Development and Planning Unit, Understanding Slums: Case Studies for the Global Report on Human Settlements, Development and Planning Unit, UCL.
Street Smart: The Rise of Cities and the Fall of Cars by Samuel I. Schwartz
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, car-free, City Beautiful movement, collaborative consumption, congestion charging, crowdsourcing, desegregation, Enrique Peñalosa, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, if you build it, they will come, intermodal, invention of the wheel, lake wobegon effect, Loma Prieta earthquake, Lyft, Masdar, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Nate Silver, oil shock, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, self-driving car, skinny streets, smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, the built environment, the map is not the territory, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, walkable city, Wall-E, white flight, Works Progress Administration, Yogi Berra, Zipcar
Akkerman makes a good case that an upright gait didn’t just help to free human hands to fabricate tools, but that human eyesight, situated at the highest available spot, made it possible to navigate via the fixed northern star, and to measure distance by number of steps taken. 98the viewpoint of a pedestrian, a cyclist, or a bus rider: (Gatersleben, 2013). 98the amount of visual information that they receive at fifteen miles per hour: (Dover, 2014). 99“Oxytocin surges when people are shown a sign of trust”: (Zak, 2012). 99more trust, empathy, and compassion in an entire community: (Mikolajczak, 2010). 99reduce threats, increase happiness: (Montgomery, 2014). 99On Appleyard’s “Heavy Street”: (Appleyard, 1981). 100as far afield as Bristol, England: (Hart, 2008). 101“because I can play there when ever I want”: (Appleyard, 2005). 104a little more than 55 cents per passenger mile: (NTSB Bureau of Traffic Statistics, 2014). 104the more mobility is constrained by tolls or congestion, the higher the GDP: (Litman, “The Mobility-Productivity Paradox,” 2014). 105places with a lot of congestion are economically vibrant: (Dumbaugh, 2014). 105a group of anthropologists and systems scientists: (Ortman, 2015). 106“average journey time is at a minimum”: (Wardrop, 1952). 110proximity is ten times more important than speed: (LeVine, 2012). In the unlikely event you’re interested in the math behind this, the researchers who came to this conclusion used a technique known as path analysis to show that the weight of the “proximity” path equaled .423, while the “speed” path weighed only .033. 110transportation costs in San Antonio: (Jaffe, 2014). 112college degrees were found in only about 35 percent: (Cortright, 2014).
Washington, DC: The American Conservative Center for Public Transportation, American Public Transportation Association, 2012, 1–31. Litman, Todd. “A New Transit Safety Narrative.” Journal of Public Transportation 17, no. 4 (December 2014): 114–135. ———. Evaluating Household Chauffeuring Burdens: Understanding Direct and Indirect Costs of Transporting Non-Drivers. 2015 TRB Annual Meeting. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board, 2014. ———. The Mobility-Productivity Paradox. I-TED/International Transportation Economic Development Conference. Victoria, BC: Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2014, 1–18. Longhurst, James. “The Sidepath Not Taken: Bicycles, Taxes, and the Rhetoric of the Public Good in the 1890s.” Journal of Policy History 25, no. 4 (October 2013): 557–586. Marshall, W. E., and N. W. Garrick. “Street Network Types and Road Safety: A Study of 24 California Cities.”
airport security, availability heuristic, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, Carmen Reinhart, Claude Shannon: information theory, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, Donald Trump, Edmond Halley, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, Freestyle chess, fudge factor, George Akerlof, haute cuisine, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, housing crisis, income per capita, index fund, Internet Archive, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, locking in a profit, Loma Prieta earthquake, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, Nate Silver, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pets.com, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, security theater, short selling, Skype, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons
Economic growth began to zoom upward much faster than the growth rate of the population, as it has continued to do through to the present day, the occasional global financial meltdown notwithstanding.27 FIGURE I-2: GLOBAL PER CAPITA GDP, 1000–2010 The explosion of information produced by the printing press had done us a world of good, it turned out. It had just taken 330 years—and millions dead in battlefields around Europe—for those advantages to take hold. The Productivity Paradox We face danger whenever information growth outpaces our understanding of how to process it. The last forty years of human history imply that it can still take a long time to translate information into useful knowledge, and that if we are not careful, we may take a step back in the meantime. The term “information age” is not particularly new. It started to come into more widespread use in the late 1970s.
In fields ranging from economics to epidemiology, this was an era in which bold predictions were made, and equally often failed. In 1971, for instance, it was claimed that we would be able to predict earthquakes within a decade,29 a problem that we are no closer to solving forty years later. Instead, the computer boom of the 1970s and 1980s produced a temporary decline in economic and scientific productivity. Economists termed this the productivity paradox. “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics,” wrote the economist Robert Solow in 1987.30 The United States experienced four distinct recessions between 1969 and 1982.31 The late 1980s were a stronger period for our economy, but less so for countries elsewhere in the world. Scientific progress is harder to measure than economic progress.32 But one mark of it is the number of patents produced, especially relative to the investment in research and development.
., 5, 149 by foxes, see foxes of future returns of stocks, 330–31, 332–33 of global warming, 373–76, 393, 397–99, 401–6, 402, 507 in Google searches, 290–91 by hedgehogs, see hedgehogs human ingenuity and, 292 of Hurricane Katrina, 108–10, 140–41, 388 as hypothesis-testing, 266–67 by IPCC, 373–76, 389, 393, 397–99, 397, 399, 401, 507 in Julius Caesar, 5 lack of demand for accuracy in, 202, 203 long-term progress vs. short-term regress and, 8, 12 Pareto principle of, 312–13, 314 perception and, 453–54, 453 in poker, 297–99, 311–15 probability and, 243 quantifying uncertainty of, 73 results-oriented thinking and, 326–28 scientific progress and, 243 self-canceling, 219–20, 228 self-fulfilling, 216–19, 353 as solutions to problems, 14–16 as thought experiments, 488 as type of information-processing, 266 of weather, see weather forecasting prediction, failures of: in baseball, 75, 101–5 of CDO defaults, 20–21, 22 context ignored in, 43 of earthquakes, 7, 11, 143, 147–49, 158–61, 168–71, 174, 249, 346, 389 in economics, 11, 14, 40–42, 41, 45, 53, 162, 179–84, 182, 198, 200–201, 249, 388, 477, 479 financial crisis as, 11, 16, 20, 30–36, 39–42 of floods, 177–79 of flu, 209–31 of global cooling, 399–400 housing bubble as, 22–23, 24, 25–26, 28–29, 32–33, 42, 45 overconfidence and, 179–83, 191, 203, 368, 443 overfitting and, 185 on politics, 11, 14–15, 47–50, 49, 53, 55–59, 64, 67–68, 157, 162, 183, 249, 314 as rational, 197–99, 200 recessions, 11 September 11, 11 in stock market, 337–38, 342, 343–46, 359, 364–66 suicide bombings and, 424 by television pundits, 11, 47–50, 49, 55 Tetlock’s study of, 11, 51, 52–53, 56–57, 64, 157, 183, 443, 452 of weather, 21–22, 114–18 prediction interval, 181-183, 193 see also margin of error prediction markets, 201–3, 332–33 press, free, 5–6 Price, Richard, 241–42, 490 price discovery, 497 Price Is Right, 362 Principles of Forecasting (Armstrong), 380 printing press, 1–4, 6, 13, 17, 250, 447 prior probability, 244, 245, 246, 252, 255, 258–59, 260, 403, 406–7, 433n, 444, 451, 490, 497 probability, 15, 61–64, 63, 180, 180, 181 calibration and, 134–36, 135, 136, 474 conditional, 240, 300; see also Bayes’s theorem frequentism, 252 and orbit of planets, 243 in poker, 289, 291, 297, 302–4, 302, 306, 307, 322–23 posterior, 244 predictions and, 243 prior, 244, 245, 246, 252, 255, 258–59, 260, 403, 406–7, 433n, 444, 451, 490, 498 rationality and, 242 as waypoint between ignorance and knowledge, 243 weather forecasts and, 195 probability distribution, of GDP growth, 201 probability theory, 113n productivity paradox, 7–8 “Programming a Computer for Playing Chess” (Shannon), 265–66 progress, forecasting and, 1, 4, 5, 7, 112, 243, 406, 410–11, 447 prospect theory, 64 Protestant Reformation, 4 Protestant work ethic, 5 Protestants, worldliness of, 5 psychology, 183 Public Opinion Quarterly, 334 PURPLE, 413 qualitative information, 100 quantitative information, 72–73, 100 Quantum Fund, 356 quantum mechanics, 113–14 Quebec, 52 R0 (basic reproduction number), 214–15, 215, 224, 225, 486 radar, 413 radon, 143, 145 rain, 134–37, 473, 474 RAND database, 511 random walks, 341 Rapoport, David C., 428 Rasskin-Gutman, Diego, 269 ratings agencies, 463 CDOs misrated by, 20–21, 21, 22, 26–30, 36, 42, 43, 45 housing bubble missed by, 22–23, 24, 25–26, 28–29, 42, 45, 327 models of, 13, 22, 26, 27, 29, 42, 45, 68 profits of, 24–25 see also specific agencies rationality, 183–84 biases as, 197–99, 200 of markets, 356–57 as probabilistic, 242 Reagan, Ronald, 50, 68, 160, 433, 466 RealClimate.org, 390, 409 real disposable income per capita, 67 recessions, 42 double dip, 196 failed predictions of, 177, 187, 194 in Great Moderation, 190 inflation-driven, 191 of 1990, 187, 191 since World War II, 185 of 2000-1, 187, 191 of 2007-9, see Great Recession rec.sport.baseball, 78 Red Cross, 158 Red River of the North, 177–79 regression analysis, 100, 401, 402, 498, 508 regulation, 13, 369 Reinhart, Carmen, 39–40, 43 religion, 13 Industrial Revolution and, 6 religious extremism, 428 religious wars of sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, 2, 6 Remote Sensing Systems, 394 Reno, Nev., 156–57, 157, 477 reserve clause, 471 resolution, as measure of forecasts, 474 results-oriented thinking, 326–28 revising predictions, see Bayesian reasoning Ricciardi, J.
1960s counterculture, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, back-to-the-land, bioinformatics, Buckminster Fuller, Claude Shannon: information theory, complexity theory, computer age, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dematerialisation, distributed generation, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, future of work, game design, George Gilder, global village, Golden Gate Park, Hacker Ethic, Haight Ashbury, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, informal economy, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, market bubble, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, Menlo Park, Mother of all demos, new economy, Norbert Wiener, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, Productivity paradox, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Richard Stallman, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, South of Market, San Francisco, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Ted Nelson, Telecommunications Act of 1996, theory of mind, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, Yom Kippur War
Healtheon, for instance, saw its stock value rise 3,339 percent in this period; the price of eBay stock increased 3,269 percent. Perkins and Perkins, Internet Bubble, 13; Brenner, Boom and the Bubble, 2. 15. The relationship between information technology and productivity has been in dispute for some time. For a review and analysis of the literature on this issue in the late 1980s and early 1990s, see Brynjolfsson, “Productivity Paradox of Information Technology”; Gordon, “Does the ‘New Economy’ Measure Up?” 50, 57. 16. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance, 20 –21, quoted in Thrift, “Romance Not the Finance Makes Business Worth Pursuing,” 426; Alan Greenspan, “The American Economy in a World Context,” at the 35th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, May 6, 1999, available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/ board-docs/speeches/1999/19990506.htm, quoted in Gordon, “Does the ‘New Economy’ Measure Up?”
New York: Simon and Schuster, 2000. Brown, John Seely, and Paul Duguid. The Social Life of Information. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2000. Bryant, John, William Aspray, Andrew Goldstein, and Frederik Nebeker. Rad Lab: Oral Histories Documenting World War II Activities at the MIT Radiation Laboratory. Piscataway, NJ: IEEE Center for the History of Electrical Engineering, 1993. Brynjolfsson, Erik. “The Productivity Paradox of Information Technology.” Communications of the ACM 36, no. 12 (1993): 67–77. Buderi, Robert. The Invention That Changed the World: How a Small Group of Radar Pioneers Won the Second World War and Launched a Technological Revolution. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996. [ 296 ] B i b l i o g ra p h y Burner, David. Making Peace with the 60s. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996.
air freight, anti-communist, barriers to entry, Bay Area Rapid Transit, British Empire, call centre, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, deskilling, Edward Glaeser, Erik Brynjolfsson, full employment, global supply chain, intermodal, Isaac Newton, job automation, knowledge economy, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, manufacturing employment, Network effects, New Economic Geography, new economy, oil shock, Panamax, Port of Oakland, post-Panamax, Productivity paradox, refrigerator car, South China Sea, trade route, Works Progress Administration, Yom Kippur War
Electricity was first used in manufacturing in 1883; for discussion of its relatively slow acceptance in manufacturing, see Warren D. Devine, Jr., “From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification,” Journal of Economic History 43 (1983): 347–372. Examples of the debate over computers include Paul A. David, “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox,” American Economic Review 80 (1990): 355–361; Stephen D. Oliner and Daniel E. Sichel, “The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 14, no. 4 (2000): 3–22; and Dale W. Jorgenson and Kevin J. Stiroh, “Information Technology and Growth,” American Economic Review 89, no. 2 (1999): 109–115. 13. Paul M. Romer, “Why, Indeed, in America?
International Monetary Fund Working Paper WP/02/171, October 2002. Connolly, D. J. “Social Repercussions of New Cargo Handling Methods in the Port of London.” International Labour Review 105 (1972): 543–568. Cushing, Charles R. “The Development of Cargo Ships in the United States and Canada in the Last Fifty Years.” Manuscript, January 8, 1992. David, Paul A. “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox.” American Economic Review 80 (1990): 355–361. Davies, J. E. “An Analysis of Cost and Supply Conditions in the Liner Shipping Industry.” Journal of Industrial Economics 31 (1983): 417–436. Dempsey, Paul Stephen. “The Law of Intermodal Transportation: What It Was, What It Is, What It Should Be.” Transportation Law Journal 27, no. 3 (2000). Devine, Warren D., Jr. “From Shafts to Wires: Historical Perspective on Electrification.”
The Lights in the Tunnel by Martin Ford
Albert Einstein, Bill Joy: nanobots, Black-Scholes formula, call centre, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, credit crunch, double helix, en.wikipedia.org, factory automation, full employment, income inequality, index card, industrial robot, inventory management, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, knowledge worker, low skilled workers, moral hazard, pattern recognition, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, Ray Kurzweil, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Silicon Valley, Stephen Hawking, strong AI, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, Thomas L Friedman, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, War on Poverty
In fact, however, in many areas, change has not come as quickly as we perhaps might have expected. Cars and airplanes now incorporate computers, but their overall design and operation is still, for the most part, what it was in 1975. NASA managed the Apollo missions and reached the moon without access to modern computing power. Even the space shuttle dates back to the introduction of the first PCs. Likewise, economists speak of something called the productivity paradox, which basically says that, at least until quite recently, the economy has not really shown the productivity gains you might expect given all the new computers that have been introduced into workplaces. The computer revolution seems, so far, to have largely turned its energy inward on itself, resulting in Copyrighted Material – Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon Acceleration / 41 advances primarily in the information and communication areas.* I have the feeling that this staggering increase in our computational capability represents a pent up resource that is poised to burst out in new and unexpected ways.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab
3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, clean water, collaborative consumption, conceptual framework, continuous integration, crowdsourcing, disintermediation, distributed ledger, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, global value chain, Google Glasses, income inequality, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of the steam engine, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, life extension, Lyft, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, more computing power than Apollo, mutually assured destruction, Narrative Science, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, personalized medicine, precariat, precision agriculture, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, reshoring, RFID, rising living standards, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, software as a service, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, The Spirit Level, total factor productivity, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y Combinator, Zipcar
As we live in a society where more than a quarter of the children born today in advanced economies are expected to live to 100, we will have to rethink issues such the working age population, retirement and individual life-planning.16 The difficulty that many countries are showing in attempting to discuss these issues is just a further sign of how we are not prepared to adequately and proactively recognize the forces of change. Productivity Over the past decade, productivity around the world (whether measured as labour productivity or total-factor productivity (TFP)) has remained sluggish, despite the exponential growth in technological progress and investments in innovation.17 This most recent incarnation of the productivity paradox – the perceived failure of technological innovation to result in higher levels of productivity – is one of today’s great economic enigmas that predates the onset of the Great Recession, and for which there is no satisfactory explanation. Consider the US, where labour productivity grew on average 2.8 percent between 1947 and 1983, and 2.6 percent between 2000 and 2007, compared with 1.3 percent between 2007 and 2014.18 Much of this drop is due to lower levels of TFP, the measure most commonly associated with the contribution to efficiency stemming from technology and innovation.
Airbnb, business intelligence, cloud computing, financial independence, Google Glasses, hiring and firing, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, move fast and break things, new economy, nuclear winter, Peter Thiel, Productivity paradox, random walk, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs
They brought me a long list of features that they felt we needed to complete prior to entering the market. They pointed to competitors with more finished products. As I listened to their lengthy objections, it became clear to me that the features the engineers wanted to add all came from Loudcloud requirements. As painful as it might be, I knew that we had to get into the broader market in order to understand it well enough to build the right product. Paradoxically, the only way to do that was to ship and try to sell the wrong product. We would fall on our faces, but we would learn fast and do what was needed to survive. Finally, I had to rebuild the executive team. I had a CFO who didn’t know software accounting, a head of sales who had never sold software, and a head of marketing who did not know our market. Every one of them was great at their old jobs, but not qualified for their new jobs.
How to Run the World: Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance by Parag Khanna
Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, back-to-the-land, bank run, blood diamonds, borderless world, BRICs, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, charter city, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, don't be evil, double entry bookkeeping, energy security, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, friendly fire, global village, Google Earth, high net worth, index fund, informal economy, invisible hand, labour mobility, laissez-faire capitalism, Masdar, megacity, microcredit, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, out of africa, private military company, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, reserve currency, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, sustainable-tourism, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, X Prize
The company continues to invest substantially in renewable energy, such as solar panel businesses and sustainable biomass, indicating a potentially long-term shift in the company’s acronym toward “Beyond Petroleum.” Every industry can improve its environmental performance. Every year, 1.3 billion tires are shipped to third world countries to be burned or discarded in giant heaps into the oceans, polluting air, sea, and land equally. Green Rubber, a company based in rubber-rich Malaysia, has pioneered the science of devulcanizing tires and recycling them into new products. Paradoxically, the information revolution has not only failed to deliver the paperless office, it has also vastly increased electricity consumption. The world’s data centers consume more energy than all of Sweden. Air-conditioning accounts for 96 percent of the electricity that data centers use, with only 4 percent needed to actually store data. More efficient data center cooling, placing servers closer together, and making computers out of recyclable material are all steps the IT industry could take to live up to its aspiration to be a realm of abundant information without destroying nature’s abundance.
The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World (Hardback) - Common by Alan Greenspan
air freight, airline deregulation, Albert Einstein, asset-backed security, bank run, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, business process, call centre, capital controls, central bank independence, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, Corn Laws, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crony capitalism, cuban missile crisis, currency peg, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, double entry bookkeeping, equity premium, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, financial innovation, financial intermediation, full employment, Gini coefficient, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, income per capita, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, labour market flexibility, laissez-faire capitalism, land reform, Long Term Capital Management, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, market bubble, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, mortgage debt, new economy, North Sea oil, oil shock, open economy, pets.com, Potemkin village, price mechanism, price stability, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, random walk, reserve currency, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, short selling, Silicon Valley, special economic zone, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, trade route, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, urban renewal, working-age population, Y2K
N e w York: Penguin Press, 2004. . The House of Morgan: An American Banking Dynasty and the Rise of Modern Finance. N e w York: Touchstone, 1990. . Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. N e w York: R a n d o m House, 1998. David, Paul A. "The D y n a m o and t h e C o m puter: An Historical Perspective on t h e Modern Productivity Paradox." American Economic Review 80, no. 2 (May 1989): 3 5 5 - 6 1 . See also David's longer paper: " C o m p u t e r and D y n a m o : T h e Modern Productivity Paradox in a Not-Too-Distant Mirror." Center for Economic Policy Research 172, Stanford University (July 1989). Dornbusch, Rudiger, and Sebastian Edwards, eds. The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991. Eichengreen, Barry, and David Leblang. "Democracy and Globalization."
Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, collective bargaining, congestion charging, Corn Laws, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, Fall of the Berlin Wall, George Akerlof, invention of movable type, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, market design, Martin Wolf, moral hazard, new economy, price discrimination, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, random walk, rent-seeking, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, sealed-bid auction, second-price auction, second-price sealed-bid, Shenzhen was a fishing village, special economic zone, spectrum auction, The Market for Lemons, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, Vickrey auction
How transformational is the “new economy”? Robert Gordon has given the definitive skeptical statement in “Does the ‘New Economy’ Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 4, no.14 (Fall 2000): 49–74. Paul David’s argument that new technology takes time to have a real economic impact is most famously expounded in “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox,” The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1990, 355–61. The results of my lost bet with John Kay are in the Financial Times, October 29, 1999, or at http:// www.johnkay.com/articles/search.php?action=view&doc_id=127&date=&title=&topic=. Although I am generally dismissive of the idea that Internet companies enjoy a first-mover advantage, I think there is at least one important exception.
The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics by William R. Easterly
Andrei Shleifer, business climate, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, clean water, colonial rule, correlation does not imply causation, financial repression, Gini coefficient, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, income per capita, inflation targeting, interchangeable parts, inventory management, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, large denomination, manufacturing employment, Network effects, New Urbanism, open economy, Productivity paradox, purchasing power parity, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, urban sprawl, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Yogi Berra, Yom Kippur War
and References 317 Dadush, Uri, Ashok Dhareshwar, and Ron Johannes. 1994. ”Are Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries Sustainable?” World Bank policy research working paper 1397. Daly, Herman. 1992. “Sustainable Development Is Possible Only If We Forgo Growth.” Earth Island Journal 7, no. 2 (spring). David, Paul A. 1990. “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox.” American Economic Review 80, no. 2 (May). Davis Steven J., and JohnHaltiwanger. 1998. ”Measuring Gross Worker and Job Flows.” In J. Haltiwanger, M. Manser, and R. Topel, eds., Labor Statistics Measurement Issues. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. De Long, J. Bradford. 1988. ”Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment.” American Economic Review 78, no. 5 (December): 1138-1154.
Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms by David S. Evans, Richard Schmalensee
Airbnb, big-box store, business process, cashless society, Deng Xiaoping, if you build it, they will come, Internet Archive, invention of movable type, invention of the printing press, invention of the telegraph, invention of the telephone, Jean Tirole, Lyft, M-Pesa, market friction, market microstructure, mobile money, multi-sided market, Network effects, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, ride hailing / ride sharing, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs, two-sided market, Uber for X, Victor Gruen, winner-take-all economy
Murray, “Payments Innovation and the Use of Cash,” June 3, 2013, http://ssrn.com/abstract=2273216. We expect the use of cash would be slightly lower in 2015. 18. Newspaper Association of America, “Newspaper Circulation Volume,” http://www.naa.org/Trends-and-Numbers/Circulation-Volume/Newspaper-Circulation-Volume.aspx. 19. Paul David, “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox,” American Economic Review 80, no. 2 (1990), 356. 20. Ibid., 356–357. 21. Kirsten Korosec, “Another Ride-Sharing Startup Becomes a Unicorn: BlaBlaCar Valued at $1.6 Billion,” Fortune, September 16, 2015, http://fortune.com/2015/09/16/blablacar-unicorn-list/. Index Abrams, Jonathan, 145 access charges, 94–95, 97 advertising, 29, 35–36 apps and, 48 design in balancing externalities with, 128–129 development of, 200–201 newspapers and, 99–100 pricing and, 154 search engine pricing and, 93–94 two-step strategy and, 79 Advertising Age, 200–201 Affirm, 80–81 agglomeration effects, 132–133 Ahrendts, Angela, 194, 195 Airbnb, 8, 12, 18, 197–198 Akamai, 43 algorithms, matching with, 127 Alibaba, 58–61 critical mass of, 68 fraud controls in, 138 ignition strategy at, 79 platform of, 63–65 pricing in, 82 retail, 62–63 Alimama, 64 Alipay, 62–63, 64 Allaire, Jeremy, 82 Amazon Alibaba compared with, 64 Cloud services, 44 ecosystem for, 105–106 Marketplace, 106 reseller platform in, 107–108 American Express, 2, 95, 96, 157 Travelers Cheques and, 189–190 anchor tenants, 80, 130, 131 Android, 47–48, 101–102 ecosystem for, 110–113, 114–119 Apple, 8, 26–27, 35, 109 App Store, 80, 117, 139, 142–143 Apple Pay, 58, 149–150, 156–164 ecosystem for, 110, 112–115, 117–119 iPhone, 101–102, 110, 112–115, 117–119 market cap of, 40 operating system, 47–48 stores, 195 apps, 47–48.
The Net Delusion: The Dark Side of Internet Freedom by Evgeny Morozov
A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, don't be evil, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Google Earth, illegal immigration, invention of radio, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, John von Neumann, Marshall McLuhan, Naomi Klein, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, pirate software, pre–internet, Productivity paradox, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Sinatra Doctrine, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, social graph, Steve Jobs, technoutopianism, The Wisdom of Crowds, urban planning, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce
More Work for Mother: The Ironies of Household Technology from the Open Hearth to the Microwave. New York: Basic Books, 1983. Craig, Douglas B. Fireside Politics: Radio and Political Culture in the United States, 1920-1940. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005. Czitrom, Daniel J. Media and the American Mind: From Morse to McLuhan. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1982. David, P. A. “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox.” American Economic Review 80, no. 2 (1990): 355-361. de la Peña, Carolyn. “‘Slow and Low Progress,’ or Why American Studies Should Do Technology.” American Quarterly 58 (2006): 915-941. de la Peña, Carolyn, and Siva Vaidhyanathan, eds. Rewiring the “Nation”: The Place of Technology in American Studies. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2007. Diamond, L. “Liberation Technology.”
The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves by Matt Ridley
23andMe, agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, Corn Laws, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, falling living standards, feminist movement, financial innovation, Flynn Effect, food miles, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, happiness index / gross national happiness, haute cuisine, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, invention of agriculture, invisible hand, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Kula ring, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Northern Rock, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, packet switching, patent troll, Pax Mongolica, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Productivity paradox, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Silicon Valley, spice trade, spinning jenny, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supervolcano, technological singularity, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transaction costs, ultimatum game, upwardly mobile, urban sprawl, Vernor Vinge, wage slave, working poor, working-age population, Y2K, Yogi Berra
Fouquet, R. and Pearson, P.J.G. 1998. A thousand years of energy use in the United Kingdom. Energy Journal 19:1–41. p. 234 ‘pulling ploughs by cable through a field at the Menier estate near Paris’. Rolt, L.T.C. 1967. The Mechanicals. Heinemann. p. 234 ‘like the computer it took decades to show up in the productivity statistics’. David, P.A. 1990. The dynamo and the computer: an historical perspective on the modern productivity paradox. American Economic Review 80:355–61. p. 234 ‘One recent study in the Philippines’. Barnes, D.F. (ed.). 2007. The Challenge of Rural Electrification. Resources for the Future Press. p. 235 ‘Joule for joule, wood is less convenient than coal, which is less convenient than natural gas, which is less convenient than electricity, which is less convenient than the electricity currently trickling through my mobile telephone.’
The Computer Boys Take Over: Computers, Programmers, and the Politics of Technical Expertise by Nathan L. Ensmenger
barriers to entry, business process, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, deskilling, Firefox, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Grace Hopper, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, job satisfaction, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, loose coupling, new economy, Norbert Wiener, pattern recognition, performance metric, post-industrial society, Productivity paradox, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, sorting algorithm, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the market place, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thorstein Veblen, Turing machine, Von Neumann architecture, Y2K
Under IBM’s substantial umbrella a broad and diverse set of subsidiary industries flourished, including not just manufacturers of complementary (or even competing) hardware products but also programming services companies, time-sharing “computer utilities,” and independent data processing service providers. When we consider such subsidiary industries, our estimate of the total size of the computer industry almost doubles.13 And yet by the late 1960s there were signs of trouble in paradise. Foreshadowing the “productivity paradox” debate of later decades, hints began to appear in the literature that a growing number of corporations were questioning the value of their investment in computing. As an article in 1969 in Fortune magazine entitled “Computers Can’t Solve Everything” described the situation, “After buying or leasing some 60,000 computers during the past fifteen years, businessmen are less and less able to state with assurance that it’s all worth it.”
23andMe, airport security, Albert Einstein, Black Swan, Buckminster Fuller, carbon footprint, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, correlation does not imply causation, Dean Kamen, game design, Gary Taubes, index card, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, life extension, Mahatma Gandhi, microbiome, p-value, Parkinson's law, Paul Buchheit, placebo effect, Productivity paradox, publish or perish, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Thorstein Veblen, wage slave, William of Occam
Spinach, 2.5 cups (1 cup = 157 mg) 7. Soybeans, cooked, 2.7 cups (1 cup = 148 mg) 8. Cashews, 5.5 oz (2 oz = 146 mg) 9. Pine nuts, 5.7 oz (2 oz = 140 mg) 10. Brazil nuts, 6.3 tbsp (2 tbsp = 128 mg) NO DAIRY? REALLY? DOESN’T MILK HAVE A LOW GLYCEMIC INDEX? It’s true that milk has a low glycemic index (GI) and a low glycemic load (GL). For the latter, whole milk clocks in at an attractive 27. Unfortunately, dairy products paradoxically have a high insulinemic response on the insulinemic index (II or InIn) scale. Researchers from Lund University in Sweden have examined this surprising finding: Despite low glycemic indexes of 15–30, all of the milk products produced high insulinemic indexes of 90–98, which were not significantly different from the insulinemic index of the reference bread [generally white bread].… Conclusions: Milk products appear insulinotropic as judged from 3-fold to 6-fold higher insulinemic indexes than expected from the corresponding glycemic indexes.
The Rise of the Network Society by Manuel Castells
Apple II, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, borderless world, British Empire, capital controls, complexity theory, computer age, Credit Default Swap, declining real wages, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, deskilling, disintermediation, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, edge city, experimental subject, financial deregulation, financial independence, floating exchange rates, future of work, global village, Hacker Ethic, hiring and firing, Howard Rheingold, illegal immigration, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, intermodal, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, job-hopping, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, laissez-faire capitalism, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, packet switching, planetary scale, popular electronics, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social software, South China Sea, South of Market, San Francisco, special economic zone, spinning jenny, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Ted Nelson, the built environment, the medium is the message, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, urban renewal, urban sprawl
David, P.A. (1975) Technical Choice Innovation and Economic Growth: Essays on American and British Experience in the Nineteenth Century, London: Cambridge University Press. —— and Bunn, J.A. (1988) “The economics of gateways’ technologies and network evolution: lessons from the electricity supply industry”, Information Economics and Policy, 3 (April): 165–202. David, Paul (1989) Computer and Dynamo: the Modern Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Center for Economic Policy Research, working paper No. 172. Davis, Diane (1994) Urban Leviathan: Mexico in the 20th Century, Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press. Davis, Mike (1990) City of Quartz, London: Verso. Dean, James W., Yoon, Se Joon and Susman, Gerald I. (1992) “Advanced manufacturing technology and organization structure: empowerment or subordination?”
3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, airline deregulation, airport security, Apple II, barriers to entry, big-box store, blue-collar work, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, clean water, collective bargaining, computer age, deindustrialization, Detroit bankruptcy, discovery of penicillin, Donner party, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, feminist movement, financial innovation, full employment, George Akerlof, germ theory of disease, glass ceiling, high net worth, housing crisis, immigration reform, impulse control, income inequality, income per capita, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, inflight wifi, interchangeable parts, invention of agriculture, invention of air conditioning, invention of the telegraph, invention of the telephone, inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, jitney, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, labor-force participation, Loma Prieta earthquake, Louis Daguerre, Louis Pasteur, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market fragmentation, Mason jar, McMansion, Menlo Park, minimum wage unemployment, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, Norbert Wiener, obamacare, occupational segregation, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, payday loans, Peter Thiel, pink-collar, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, Ralph Waldo Emerson, refrigerator car, rent control, Robert X Cringely, Ronald Coase, school choice, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, Skype, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Market for Lemons, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, traveling salesman, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, upwardly mobile, urban decay, urban planning, urban sprawl, washing machines reduced drudgery, Washington Consensus, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, working poor, working-age population, Works Progress Administration, yield management
“The Consequences of Childhood Overweight and Obesity,” The Future of Children 16, no. 1 (spring): 47–67. Darby, Michael. (1976). “Three-and-a-Half Million U.S. Employees Have Been Mislaid: Or, an Explanation of Unemployment, 1934–1941.” The Journal of Political Economy. 84, no. 1 (February): 1–16. David, Paul A. (1990). “The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 80, no. 2 (May): 355–61. Davis, Steven J., and Haltiwanger, John. (2014). “Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance,” NBER Working Paper 20479, September. Decker, John, Haltiwanger, John, Jarmin, Ron S., and Miranda, Javier. (2014). “The Role of Entrepreneurship in U.S. Job Creation and Economic Dynamism,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 28: 3–24.