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The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning by James E. Lovelock
Ada Lovelace, butterfly effect, carbon footprint, Clapham omnibus, cognitive dissonance, continuous integration, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, discovery of DNA, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Henri Poincaré, mandelbrot fractal, megacity, Northern Rock, oil shale / tar sands, phenotype, planetary scale, short selling, Stewart Brand, University of East Anglia
Naturally, science thinks that it has reduced the problem by subdividing it, and that presumably is why we have the mainly biological Millennium Assessment Ecosystem Commission, separate from the IPCC. It would be wrong of me to suggest that climate modellers ignore the importance of the contribution of life on Earth to climate change. Climate modellers at the Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia in the UK, at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research and other labs in the USA, and at Potsdam in Germany have all made or are making comprehensive dynamic climate models that do include the biota. I am familiar with the substantial contributions of Peter Cox, Chris Jones and Richard Betts of the Hadley Centre, of Tim Lenton, Andrew Watson and Peter Liss of the University of East Anglia, and of John Schellnhuber, Wernher Von Bloh and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. But I think they would all agree that their work is far from complete. Then there are the climatologists Ann Henderson‐Sellers, Kendal McGuffie and Robert Dickinson, who have tirelessly and often against strong opposition extended the competence of climate modelling by recognizing the need to include the biota in a dynamic role.
They were therefore proposing that a lifeless Earth could regulate its temperature at levels habitable for organisms. When I first heard Walker describe this mechanism at a Dahlem Conference in Berlin in the early 1980s it certainly sounded plausible, and afterwards in conversation he said that his motivation was mainly to show that Gaia was not needed for self‐regulation and that geochemistry could do it alone. At the time Andrew Watson, now a professor of biogeochemistry at the University of East Anglia, was working with me as a postgraduate student and it occurred to us that in real life rocks always have lichen and other organisms on their surfaces and, more importantly, the soil where fragments of the rocks exist is a rich ecosystem in its own right and has an internal atmosphere up to thirty times richer in carbon dioxide than the air. The rate of weathering in these circumstances could be much greater than on exposed bare rock.
This has been especially true of the research stimulated by the prediction of a link between the biological production of dimethyl sulphide in the ocean, clouds in the atmosphere, the Earth’s radiation balance and climate regulation. The paper on clouds, algae and climate by Charlson, Lovelock, Andrea and Warren was published in Nature in 1987, and its conclusions are usually referred to as the CLAW hypothesis. Since then hundreds if not thousands of papers have been published on researches it stimulated. Professor Liss of the University of East Anglia and I published a paper in 2007 in Environmental Chemistry summarizing the progress of the CLAW hypothesis, and concluded that the mechanism proposed was observable only in the unpolluted southern hemisphere. Sulphur pollution in the northern hemisphere is now as much as ten times greater than the natural output from algae, and obscures any effect the algae might have. Prediction Test Result Mars is lifeless (1968) Atmospheric compositional evidence shows lack of disequilibrium Strong confirmation, Viking mission 1975 That elements are transferred from ocean to land by biogenic gases (1971) Search for oceanic sources of dimethyl sulphide and methyl iodide Found 1973 Climate regulation through biologically enhanced rock weathering (1973) Analysis of ice‐core data linking temperature and CO2 abundance Confirmed 2008, by Zeebe and Caldeira That Gaia is aged and is not far from the end of its lifespan (1982) Calculation based on generally accepted solar evolution Generally accepted Climate regulation through cloud albedo control linked to algal gas emissions (1987) Many tests have been made but the excess of pollution interferes Probable for southern hemisphere Oxygen has not varied by more than 5 per cent from 21 per cent for the past 200 million years (1974) Ice‐core and sedimentary analysis Confirmed for up to 1 million years ago.
agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, Exxon Valdez, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, hydraulic fracturing, oil shale / tar sands, stem cell, sustainable-tourism, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, urban planning, urban sprawl
Let’s take a look at some of what we are now learning. Six independent investigations have found that the unimaginatively named Climategate was anything but the scandal or “nail in the coffin of anthropogenic global warming” that deniers claimed. After the illegal theft and release of emails from scientists at the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, some reports found that the scientists could have been more open about sharing data; however, their science was rigorous and sound. The University of East Anglia has since posted its research and data online, and all of the emails in question have also been posted. As for criticisms of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s global assessment of climate change, a review found that despite “a very small number of near-trivial errors in about five hundred pages,” the report contained “no errors that would undermine the main conclusions.”
Environmental Protection Agency over its ruling that carbon dioxide and other global warming gases are a threat to human health and welfare. Many Republicans, some of whom also reject the science of evolution and believe the earth was created six thousand years ago and that humans and dinosaurs walked together, have followed his lead. As for the so-called Climategate brouhaha (where more than one thousand emails between climate scientists at the University of East Anglia were stolen or leaked by hackers), a fifth investigation, this time led by Republicans in response to a request from one of their own, Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma, again found no “evidence to question the ethics of our scientists or raise doubts about [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s] understanding of climate change science.” Efforts in the U.S. to sow confusion about climate science appear to be having an effect: according to a 2011 poll, only 58 per cent of U.S. citizens believe in the science behind climate change, compared with 80 per cent of Canadians.
It’s time to listen to the people who continue to look at the facts in the face of baseless accusations, break-ins, and threats. We need to listen to those who are trying to do something about our predicament rather than wishing it away. Where’s the climate conspiracy? PEOPLE WHO DENY the reality of human-caused global warming were wetting their pants over the hacked emails brouhaha at the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. In their desperation, the deniers claimed the emails pointed to a global conspiracy by the world’s scientists and government leaders to... Well, it’s hard to say what they believed the conspiracy was about. A letter to a Vancouver newspaper on December 21, 2007, indicates the way many of them think. The writer claimed that people working to address global warming “are ideological zealots pursuing a quasi-religious socialist agenda to command and control western economies.”
Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science by Dani Rodrik
airline deregulation, Albert Einstein, bank run, barriers to entry, Bretton Woods, butterfly effect, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, collective bargaining, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, distributed generation, Edward Glaeser, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial deregulation, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, fudge factor, full employment, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, income inequality, inflation targeting, informal economy, invisible hand, Jean Tirole, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, liquidity trap, loss aversion, low skilled workers, market design, market fundamentalism, minimum wage unemployment, oil shock, open economy, price stability, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, rent control, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, school vouchers, South Sea Bubble, spectrum auction, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, unorthodox policies, Washington Consensus, white flight
‡ Ninety percent of economists reportedly agree with the following proposition: “Fiscal policy (for example, tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy.” Greg Mankiw, “News Flash: Economists Agree,” February 14, 2009, Greg Mankiw’s Blog, http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/02/news-flash-economists-agree.html. § As University of East Anglia economist Robert Sugden points out, “In economics . . . there seems to be a convention that modellers need not be explicit about what their models tell us about the real world.” Sugden, “Credible Worlds, Capacities and Mechanisms” (unpublished paper, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, August 2008), 18. CHAPTER 6 Economics and Its Critics An economist, a physician, and an architect are traveling on a train together, and they fall into a discussion as to which one of their professions is the most honorable. The physician points out that God created Eve out of Adam’s rib, so He must have been a surgeon.
David R. Cameron, “The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis,” American Political Science Review 72, no. 4 (December 1978): 1243–61. 18. Dani Rodrik, “Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?” Journal of Political Economy 106, no. 5 (October 1998): 997–1032. 19. Robert Sugden, “Credible Worlds, Capacities and Mechanisms” (unpublished paper, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, August 2008). CHAPTER 4: Models and Theories 1. Andrew Gelman, “Causality and Statistical Learning,” American Journal of Sociology 117 (2011): 955–66; Andrew Gelman and Guido Imbens, Why Ask Why? Forward Causal Inference and Reverse Causal Questions, NBER Working Paper 19614 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013). 2. Dani Rodrik, “Democracies Pay Higher Wages,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, no. 3 (August 1999): 707–38. 3.
The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas
back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Haber-Bosch Process, ice-free Arctic, invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Negawatt, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, planetary scale, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, Stewart Brand, University of East Anglia
Mass extinctions happen because changing circumstances outstrip the adaptability of existing species before evolution can work its magic. Over millions of years new species can appear, but only from the diminished gene pool of the survivors—and a return to true pre-extinction levels of biodiversity may take much longer, if it ever takes place at all. This time-lag effect was cleverly demonstrated in a modeling simulation undertaken by two British researchers, Hywell Williams and Tim Lenton (both at the University of East Anglia; Lenton is a member of the planetary boundaries expert group).2 In a computer-generated world—entirely populated by evolving microorganisms living in a closed flask—Williams and Lenton found that the closing of nutrient loops emerged as a robust property of the system nearly every time the model was run. As in the real world, the emergence of self-regulation came about because evolution allowed new species to appear that could use the waste of one species as food for themselves, recycling nutrients and leading to a stable state.
Indeed, climate denialists became so successful in 2009 that they managed to dominate the media agenda via a series of manufactured scandals that engulfed much of the climate-science community. Deniers promoting the so-called “Climategate” affair took a few out-of-context quotes and superficially embarrassing private slips by leading scientists from some leaked emails and nearly managed to publicly discredit not only the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia but several other leading institutes too. Vociferous promoters of a subsequent scandal took a single mistake about Himalayan glaciers, buried deep in the second weighty tome of the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, and used it to attack the entire IPCC process, and the role of Chair Rajendra Pachauri in particular. None of this changed anything we knew—anything that mattered—about the reality of climate change, but the deniers succeeded in making climate science an ideological battleground, where the expert consensus was rejected by whole political parties and large sections of the media as itself partisan.
cadmium calcium carbonate Calcutta Cambrian explosion Canada Cancún, UN climate change meeting, 2010 “cap and trade” programs carbon: cycle; offsetting/markets capture and storage (CCS); price; politics of; black carbon dioxide emissions: planetary boundary for Carbon Trade Watch cars see vehicles Cartagena Dialogue Cato Institute CFCs Cheatneutral.com Chernobyl Chesser, Robert China 21 coal power in; nuclear power in; dam construction; “night soil” industry; meat eating in; demand for fossil fuels; alternatives to high carbon aviation; hydroelectricity; virtual water and; pollution incidents; aerosol pollution; black carbon and; transport pollution; emissions standards; CFC production; Copenhagen summit and; population growth; vehicle ownership, growth in emissions; food production; investment in low-carbon technologies Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning Climate Action Network Climate Action Partnership climate change: carbon offsetting/markets and; deniers; extinction and; boundary see climate change boundary; tipping points; methane and; agreements/negotiations; nitrates worsen; solar radiation management and; see also carbon dioxide emissions, China, individual agreement/negotiation name, nuclear power, population, renewables under individual event and area name climate change boundary; 350: current evidence; 350: modeling evidence; 350: past evidence; toward a technofix?; technologies for new technologies for the future; politics of carbon; sea level rise; Arctic thaw and; destabilization of Atlantic Ocean circulation; models Climate Fix, The (Pielke Jnr) “Climategate”, 2009 Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia Clinton, Bill Club of Rome coal power Cochabamba, Bolivia Collapse (Diamond) Colorado River Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas Condit Dam Congo Basin Forest Fund Congress, US Convention on Biological Diversity, Nagoya, 2010 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, 1979 COP15 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Copenhagen Accord Copenhagen climate summit, 2009 coral reefs Corporate Watch Costa Rica Costanza, Robert Cretaceous Period Crookes, William Crutzen, Paul Current Opinion in Plant Biology Cyclone Nargis Da Silva, Luiz Inácio Lula Dai, Aiguo Daly, Herman Dampier, William dams, removing unnecessary; hydroelectric; Chinese construction of; fishery collapse and; tidal barrages; block natural flow of water; threaten species; affects water temperature; water trapped behind loses most of its sediment load; current water use; where water is taken from Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty DDT Dead Sea dead zones deep-sea floating turbines deforestation Delta smelt “demographic transition” Dhaka Diamond, Jared diesel engines Dinorwig, Wales DuPont Earth: goldilocks state; self-regulating; “snowball”; ice-albedo feedback; see also carbon: cycle “earthshine” East Antarctic Ice Sheet Economics of Ecosystems & Biodiversity, The (TEEB) report, 2010 Economist Ecuador Edwards Dam Egypt electric vehicles Endangered Species Act, U.S.
accounting loophole / creative accounting, affirmative action, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bonus culture, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, call centre, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, disintermediation, Edward Glaeser, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Financial Instability Hypothesis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hyman Minsky, If something cannot go on forever, it will stop, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, low skilled workers, market bubble, market design, market fundamentalism, megacity, Network effects, new economy, night-watchman state, Northern Rock, oil shock, principal–agent problem, profit motive, purchasing power parity, railway mania, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, Steven Pinker, The Design of Experiments, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Market for Lemons, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Spirit Level, transaction costs, transfer pricing, tulip mania, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, web application, web of trust, winner-take-all economy, World Values Survey
For instance, it has been criticized for refusing to publish data, for failing to use appropriate statistical methods despite criticisms, and for failing to engage in standard scientific peer review processes or even publish the debates between the scientists involved in drafting its reports.11 In January 2010 the IPCC was forced to admit its latest report had been mistaken in its prediction of when the Himalayan glaciers were likely to melt. Subsequently the United Nations asked the InterAcademy Council, which represents national science academies, to review the IPCC’s methods, and a number of submissions to its experts listed numerous procedural and methodological weaknesses.12 One of the leading global centers of climate change research, at the UK’s University of East Anglia, was at the heart of an even more damaging scandal when hacked emails seemed to suggest that scientists had actively been rigging results and misleading people they regarded as hostile. Although a review cleared the scientists of the most damaging allegations, even prominent environmental campaigners concluded that climate scientists must engage more honestly and openly with their critics.13 Serious institutional failings of this sort play to political parties and industry lobbies opposed to various types of response to climate change.
Their focus is instead on the interpretations of the data, the methods used, and the conclusions governments and international agencies have drawn from those basic facts. These weaknesses mean the policies are being shaped inappropriately, they argue. While some of the criticism maps onto conventional left-right politics, there are obviously reasonable questions about the role and motivation of the IPCC and its related groups such as the scientists at the University of East Anglia. The climate change establishment has not had due regard to its own legitimacy and accountability, especially if it wants to change minds and votes in democracies. The dissenters argue further that the official forecasts are unduly alarmist and that the temperature rises against which governments need to take mitigating action are not likely to be as high as the IPCC predicts. David Henderson, a former chief economist at the OECD, is one of the people who has led the intellectual charge.14 Henderson argues that the IPCC is institutionally biased toward pessimism and also has insufficient knowledge of the proper methods for assessing the likely economic effects and necessary adjustments (not that economists have a terrific forecasting record of course—but at least we can’t fail to be aware of the fallibility of any prediction).
See also gross domestic product (GDP); measurement Stein, Herbert, 104 Stern, Nicholas, 29, 60–61, 68, 72–74, 82 Stevenson, Betsey, 41 stewardship, 78, 80, 275 Stiglitz, Joseph, 37, 82, 202, 274 stimulus packages, 91, 100–103, 111 Strumpf, Koleman, 197 suicide, 44, 51, 279 superstar effect, 134 sustainability: Brundtlandt Report and, 77; cradle-to-grave social systems and, 104; defining, 24, 77–78, 80; economic, 8, 85–86, 89–90, 98, 100, 102, 104–5, 108, 111, 113, 136, 177, 183–85, 203, 233–34, 240, 244, 248, 261, 293; environmental, 38, 56, 59, 62, 65, 69, 71, 76, 112–13, 233; fairness and, 115; government debt and, 102, 104–12; growth and, 53, 57, 80–86, 89–90, 98, 100; Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) and, 36; kinds of, 25; social, 54, 71, 79, 114–16, 143, 151, 233, 237 Sweden, 141, 143, 172, 251 Switzerland, 125 Tabellini, Guido, 136 tacit knowledge, 166 taxes, 3, 12, 15; business investment and, 295; fairness and, 123, 127–28, 131, 135–36, 144; Golden Rule for, 93; increased future, 286–87; happiness and, 22–25, 40, 43; inequality and, 115–16, 123, 127–28, 131, 135–36; infrastructure spending and, 93; luxury goods and, 23; Medicare and, 93–94; nature and, 62, 71; pension burden and, 92–95; policy recommendations for, 279, 282–86, 289–90, 293–97; posterity and, 85–91, 94, 99, 103–5, 111–13; Social Security and, 93–94; thrift education and, 294–95; trust and, 171–76, 182, 191, 203; values and, 229, 235, 245, 248, 258; wasteful spending and, 23; welfare burden and, 92–95 technology: access to, 36; Boskin Commission and, 37; call centers and, 131, 133, 161; cities and, 165–70; computers and, 156; consumer electronics and, 36–37; cultural suspicion of growth and, 26–29; data explosion and, 205, 291; decreased cost of, 254; electrification and, 155–56; electronic monitoring, 252–53; e-mail, 252; Enlightenment and, 7; fairness and, 116, 131–34, 137; faxes, 252; fractal character of, 134; general purpose, 157; globalization and, 7, 160–65; governance and, 173–77; growth and, 268, 270–77, 287–93, 297; Gutenberg press, 7; happiness and, 24–25, 35–37, 44, 53–54; impact of, 7–8, 24–25, 35, 37, 252–54; Industrial Revolution and, 27, 149, 290, 297; innovation and, 6–8 (see also innovation); institutions and, 244–46, 251–54, 257–63; Internet, 155, 195, 245, 260, 273, 287–89, 291, 296; labor and, 132; measurement and, 181–85, 188–91, 194–201, 204–6; Moore’s Law and, 156; music industry and, 194–98; nature and, 69–72, 76–77, 80, 84; new energy, 6; online empowerment and, 287–88, 296; policy recommendations for, 268, 270, 273–77, 287–93, 297; politics and, 7–8, 16–17, 288–89; posterity and, 107; productivity and, 107–8, 157–59, 268; public domain and, 196; reinvention and, 14; Renaissance and, 7; smart cards, 252–53; software, 253; steam power, 155–57; structural change and, 268; superstar effect and, 134; telephony, 252; trust and, 7–8, 151, 155–61, 165, 170, 173–77; values and, 212–13, 216, 218, 233–34, 237–38; voters and, 288–89 Thatcher, Margaret, 93, 121, 211, 240, 245, 247–48 Theory of Justice (Rawls), 31 Theory of Moral Sentiments, A (Smith), 120 Theory of the Leisure Class, The (Veblen), 22–23 Thomson, William (Lord Kelvin), 187 time: shortage of, 204–7; Slow Movement and, 27–28, 205 tragedy of the commons, 80 transparency, 83, 164, 288, 296 Treatise on Human Nature (Hume), 120 trilemmas, 13–14, 230–36, 275 Trivers, Robert, 118 Trollope, Anthony, 33 trust: bankers and, 88–89, 145–50, 158, 161–64, 174, 176, 257; causality and, 154; challenge of building, 170–73; cities and, 165–70; civic cooperation and, 154; decline in, 5, 139–44; democracy and, 175; diversity and, 170–73; doctors and, 247; economic importance of, 152–57; efficiency and, 158–59; face-to-face contact and, 7, 147, 165–68; fraud and, 146–47, 150, 248; General Social Survey and, 140; globalization and, 149–51, 157, 160–70; goodwill and, 150; governance and, 151, 162–65, 173–77, 255–58; government and, 150, 157, 162, 172, 175–76, 247; gross domestic product (GDP) and, 157, 160; growth and, 152–56, 160, 174; health issues and, 172; innovation and, 157; intangible assets and, 149–52, 157, 161; measurement of, 152–57; morals and, 149, 174; paradox of prosperity and, 174; Pew surveys and, 140; politics and, 154, 162–64, 173–77, 285–87; productivity and, 156–59, 162, 166–67, 170, 174; Putnam on, 140–41, 152–54; reform and, 162–64, 176–77; social capital and, 5, 151–57, 168–74, 177; specialization and, 160–61; statistics and, 154; teachers and, 247; technology and, 7–8, 151, 155–61, 165, 170, 173–77; voter turnout and, 175; weightless activities and, 150 Tullock, Gordon, 242 Turner, Ted, 33 Twitter, 289 Uganda, 147 ultimatum game, 116–17 unemployment, 3, 10, 43, 51, 56, 89, 107, 169, 207, 212–13, 243 unions, 15, 51, 224, 249 United Kingdom, 1, 4, 10, 66; bailouts and, 91; British Social Attitudes and, 140–41; Brown and, 93; debt of, 103–4; diversity and, 172; fairness and, 115–16, 122, 125–26, 130, 139–43; Glastonbury Festival and, 197; inequality in, 122, 125–30; institutions and, 240, 258, 260; measurement and, 198, 203, 206–7; National Health Service and, 285; National Statistics and, 203; negative savings rate in, 105; policy recommendations and, 280–88; posterity and, 93, 95, 103, 105, 111; public deliberation and, 258–59; public sector and, 248; retirement age and, 107; savings rate in, 280–82; Thatcher and, 93, 121, 211, 240, 245, 247–48; time surveys and, 206–8; trust and, 140–41, 146, 163, 168, 172; values and, 211, 223; Victorian Britain and, 28 United Nations, 297, 304n7; Brundtland Report and, 77; climate change and, 59, 62, 66, 77–78, 82–83; happiness and, 38; sustainable development and, 77; TEEB and, 78; trust and, 163–64, 176; values and, 219 United States, 4, 10, 16; additional growth in, 12; bifurcation of social norms and, 231–32; Boskin Commission and, 37; Bush and, 127–28; Cold War and, 93, 112, 147, 209, 213, 239; convergence and, 122; credibility and, 101; debt of, 101; defense budget of, 93; diversity and, 172; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; fairness and, 115–16, 121–22, 125–35, 140–43; Founding Fathers of, 31; happiness and, 37, 41–44; inequality in, 122, 125–31, 135, 276; institutions and, 240, 243, 251, 256, 258, 260; Kyoto Protocol and, 62; measurement and, 184, 191, 203, 206; nature and, 55, 62–63, 66; Obama and, 62, 87, 173, 260, 285, 288; policy recommendations and, 276–77, 280–88, 291; posterity and, 91–93, 97, 101, 105, 109; public deliberation and, 258–59; Reagan and, 93, 121, 127, 211, 240, 243, 247–48; savings rate in, 105, 280–82; small public sector of, 243; stimulus packages and, 91; time surveys and, 206–8; trust and, 140, 149, 171–75; values and, 209, 211, 223, 226; voter turnout and, 175; wage penalties and, 133 University of California, Berkeley, 205 University of East Anglia, 67 University of Sheffield, 224 Unto This Last (Ruskin), 27–28 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 204, 274 Use of Knowledge in Society, The (von Hayek), 216 U.S. Treasury, 100 utiltarianism, 31–32, 78, 237 U2, 194–98 values, 18; anomie and, 48, 51; balance and, 12–17; bankers and, 211, 213, 217, 223, 226–28, 233; capitalism and, 209–13, 218, 226, 230–32, 235–36; capitalism and, 230–38 (see also capitalism); consumption and, 229, 236; culture and, 230–38; decentralization and, 275; democracy and, 230–38; efficiency and, 210, 215–16, 221–35; face-to-face contact and, 7, 147, 165–68; freedom and, 237–38; globalization and, 210–11, 235; governance and, 211, 217, 238; government and, 14, 210–11, 215–20, 225–26, 229–30, 234; gross domestic product (GDP) and, 212, 218, 232; growth and, 13, 210–13, 222, 231–36; innovation and, 210, 216, 220, 236; institutions and, 240–42, 246–47, 258–60; intangible assets and, 149–52, 157, 161, 199–201; market failure and, 226–30; measurement and, 209, 212–13; merits of markets and, 211–17; morals and, 185, 210, 213, 220–25, 230–33; philosophy and, 237–39; policy recommendations for, 275–84; politics and, 209–13, 217–18, 223–24, 231–34, 237–38; price chasm and, 207–8; productivity and, 212–13, 224; Protestant work ethic and, 13–14, 236; public choice theory and, 220; public deliberation and, 258–60; public service and, 295; rational calculation and, 214–15; reform and, 218, 233, 275–78, 295; revalorization and, 275; role of government and, 14–15; self-interest and, 214, 221; statistics and, 13; stewardship and, 78, 80, 275; technology and, 212–13, 216, 218, 233–34, 237–38; World Values Survey and, 139 Veblen, Thorsten, 22–23 Velvet Revolution, 239 volunteering, 46–49, 205–7, 214, 249, 269, 287 von Bismarck, Otto, 112 voters, 12, 16; declining turnout of, 175; happiness and, 23, 33, 43; increased turnout and, 260, 285; institutions and, 242, 251, 258, 260, 297; Internet and, 260; knowledge levels of, 288; legitimacy and, 297; measurement and, 190, 206; nature and, 57, 61, 68–69, 76; posterity and, 86, 96, 100, 106, 111; technological effects on, 288–89; trust and, 175, 286; values and, 224, 233–34, 258 Waal, Frans de, 119 Wall Street, 147, 221 Wall Street (film), 221 Warwick Commission on International Financial Reform, 164 Wealth of Nations (Smith), 119–20 Weber, Axel, 99 Weber, Max, 236 weightless activities, 150 welfare, 310n25; aging population and, 4, 94–95, 105–6, 109, 112–13, 206, 267, 280, 287, 296; fairness and, 116, 127, 131, 136–37; growth and, 9–12; happiness and, 9–12, 24–26, 29–32, 35–36, 39–42, 50–53; inequality and, 4–5, 11, 17 (see also inequality); institutions and, 239–43, 259; markets and, 211–25; measurement and, 181–86, 193, 207; nature and, 57–58, 61–62, 71–75, 78–84; policy recommendations for, 270–71, 275–77, 286, 290, 296; posterity and, 85, 89–100, 103, 106, 111–12; trust and, 171, 175; values and, 209, 211, 217, 228, 231–38 well-being, 137–43 Western culture, 2, 16, 18, 181–82, 235; aging populations in, 94–95; anomie and, 48, 51; anxiety and, 1, 25, 47–48, 136–38, 149, 174; corrosion of trust in, 150, 156, 171–75, 255–56; downshifting and, 11, 55; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; government debt and, 104 (see also government debt); happiness and, 22–23, 26, 40, 48, 50–51; hedonic treadmill and, 40; increased management complexities of, 244; Industrial Revolution and, 27, 149, 290, 297; institutions and, 243–44, 255–58; nature and, 57–66, 76; policy recommendations for, 268–69, 273, 275, 278, 284–85, 287; prosperity and, 86, 94–97, 104–9; Slow Movement and, 27–28, 205; voter turnout and, 175; weightless activities and, 150 Whitehall Studies, 139 Wikipedia, 205, 291 Wilkinson, Richard, 137–40 Willetts, David, 98–99 Williamson, Oliver, 17, 220, 242, 250, 254, 261 Wolf, Naomi, 34 Wolfers, Justin, 41 World Bank, 38, 81, 163–64, 176, 211 WorldCom, 145 World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge, and Policy, 38 World Trade Organization (WTO), 162–63, 215, 297 World Values Survey, 139 World War II era, 4, 91, 97, 106, 141, 164, 257, 270, 281, 283 zero–sum games, 118 Zimbabwe, 89, 110, 122
The Verdict: Did Labour Change Britain? by Polly Toynbee, David Walker
banking crisis, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, call centre, central bank independence, congestion charging, Corn Laws, Credit Default Swap, decarbonisation, deglobalization, deindustrialization, Etonian, failed state, first-past-the-post, Frank Gehry, gender pay gap, Gini coefficient, high net worth, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, income inequality, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, market bubble, millennium bug, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, pension reform, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, shareholder value, Skype, smart meter, stem cell, The Spirit Level, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, working-age population, Y2K
Labour invested at least £800 million in supporting technology transfer up to 2007, and a further £429 million was scheduled for the years to 2011 – paying for innovation funds, seed corn for start-ups and a Cambridge–MIT programme. If Labour’s generosity went unthanked by arts and science, the reason was ministers’ insistence on a pro quo for the many quids they put in. What scientists, academics, clinicians and theatre directors like is freedom – to spend as the muse or the fire of knowledge leads them. Scientific autonomy, a precious principle, took a heavy hit when emails among climate scientists at the University of East Anglia were hacked, and the price of their knowledge was shown to be a clubby arrogance about letting opponents see unhelpful evidence. Self-regard in clubs was not confined to science. Here was something that ought to have concerned Lord Triesman – the Labour Party apparatchik and minister turned chair of the Football Association – but he stayed quiet before departing in disgrace in 2010. Labour’s role, as big money washed into sport, was that of an ineffectual assistant referee, fated to wave the yellow flag and be ignored by everyone on the field.
., 1 Rosetta Stone, 1 Rosyth, 1 Rotherham, 1, 2, 3 Royal Opera House, 1 Royal Shakespeare Company, 1 Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, 1 Rugby, 1 rugby union, 1 Rumsfeld, Donald, 1 rural affairs, 1, 2 Rushdie, Salman, 1 Russia, 1, 2 Rwanda, 1 Ryanair, 1, 2 Sainsbury, Lord David, 1 St Austell, 1 St Bartholomew’s Hospital, 1, 2 St Pancras International station, 1 Salford, 1, 2, 3, 4 Sanchez, Tia, 1 Sandwell, 1 Sarkozy, Nicolas, 1, 2 Savill, Superintendent Paul, 1 Saville, Lord, 1 savings ratio, 1 Scandinavia, 1, 2, 3 Scholar, Sir Michael, 1 school meals, 1, 2 school uniforms, 1 school-leaving age, 1 schools academies, 1, 2, 3, 4 building, 1 class sizes, 1 comprehensive schools, 1, 2 faith schools, 1, 2, 3, 4 grammar schools, 1, 2, 3 and inequality, 1 nursery schools, 1 and PFI, 1, 2, 3 police in, 1, 2, 3 primary schools, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 private schools, 1, 2 secondary schools, 1, 2, 3 in special measures, 1 special schools, 1 specialist schools, 1 and sport, 1 science, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Scotland, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and children, 1 devolution, 1 electricity generation, 1 and health, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Scottish parliament, 1, 2 Section 1, 2 security services, 1 MI5, 1, 2, 3 Sedley, Stephen, 1 segregation, 1 self-employment, 1 Sellafield, 1 Serious Organized Crime Agency, 1 sex crimes, 1 Sex Discrimination Act, 1 Shankly, Bill, 1 Sharkey, Feargal, 1 Shaw, Liz, 1 Sheen, Michael, 1 Sheffield, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Sheringham, 1 Shetty, Shilpa, 1 Shipman, Harold, 1 shopping, 1 Short, Clare, 1 Siemens, 1 Siena, 1 Sierra Leone, 1, 2 Skeet, Mavis, 1 skills councils, 1 slavery, 1 Slough, 1 Smith, Adam, 1 Smith, Chris, 1 Smith, Jacqui, 1, 2 Smith, John, 1, 2 Smithers, Professor Alan, 1, 2 smoking ban, 1, 2 Snowden, Philip, 1 social care, 1, 2, 3 Social Chapter opt-out, 1 social exclusion, 1, 2 Social Fund, 1 social mobility, 1, 2 social sciences, 1 social workers, 1 Soham murders, 1, 2, 3, 4 Solihull, 1, 2 Somalia, 1, 2 Souter, Brian, 1 South Africa, 1 South Downs, 1 Spain, 1, 2, 3 special advisers, 1 speed cameras, 1 Speenhamland, 1 Spelman, Caroline, 1 Spence, Laura, 1 sport, 1, 2 see also football; Olympic Games Sri Lanka, 1, 2 Stafford Hospital, 1 Staffordshire University, 1 Standard Assessment Tests (Sats), 1, 2, 3 Standards Board for England, 1 statins, 1, 2, 3 stem cell research, 1 STEM subjects, 1 Stephenson, Sir Paul, 1 Stern, Sir Nicholas, 1, 2 Stevenson, Lord (Dennis), 1 Stevenson, Wilf, 1 Steyn, Lord, 1 Stiglitz, Joseph, 1 Stockport, 1 Stonehenge, 1 Stoppard, Tom, 1 Straw, Jack, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 student fees, 1 Stuff Happens, 1 Sudan, 1, 2 Sugar, Alan, 1 suicide bombing, 1 suicides, 1 Sun, 1, 2 Sunday Times, 1, 2 Sunderland, 1, 2 supermarkets, 1, 2 Supreme Court, 1, 2 Sure Start, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 surveillance, 1, 2 Sutherland, Lord (Stewart), 1 Swansea, 1 Sweden, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Swindon, 1 Taliban, 1, 2 Tallinn, 1 Tanzania, 1 Tate Modern, 1 Taunton, 1 tax avoidance, 1, 2, 3 tax credits, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 council tax credit, 1 pension credit, 1, 2, 3 R&D credits, 1 taxation, 1, 2 10p tax rate, 1 capital gains tax, 1, 2 corporation tax, 1, 2, 3, 4 council tax, 1, 2 fuel duty, 1, 2, 3 green taxes, 1, 2 and income inequalities, 1 income tax, 1, 2, 3, 4 inheritance tax, 1, 2 poll tax, 1 stamp duty, 1, 2, 3 vehicle excise duty, 1 windfall tax, 1, 2, 3 see also National Insurance; VAT Taylor, Damilola, 1 Taylor, Robert, 1 teachers, 1, 2, 3 head teachers, 1, 2 salaries, 1, 2 teaching assistants, 1, 2 teenage pregnancy, 1, 2, 3 Teesside University, 1 television and crime, 1 and gambling, 1 talent shows, 1 television licence, 1, 2, 3 Territorial Army, 1 terrorism, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Terry, John, 1 Tesco, 1, 2, 3, 4 Tewkesbury, 1 Thames Gateway, 1 Thameswey, 1 Thatcher, Margaret, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 Thatcherism, 1, 2, 3 theatre, 1 Thornhill, Dorothy, 1 Thorp, John, 1 Tibet, 1 Tilbury, 1 Times, The, 1 Times Educational Supplement, 1, 2 Timmins, Nick, 1 Titanic, 1 Tomlinson, Mike, 1 Topman, Simon, 1, 2 torture, 1, 2 trade unions, 1, 2, 3 Trades Union Congress (TUC), 1, 2, 3 tramways, 1 transport policies, 1, 2 Trident missiles, 1, 2, 3 Triesman, Lord, 1 Turkey, 1, 2 Turnbull, Lord (Andrew), 1 Turner, Lord (Adair), 1, 2, 3 Tweedy, Colin, 1 Tyneside Metro, 1 Uganda, 1 UK Film Council, 1 UK Sport, 1 UK Statistics Authority, 1 unemployment, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 United Nations, 1, 2, 3 United States of America, 1, 2 Anglo-American relationship, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and child poverty, 1 and clean technologies, 1 economy and business, 1, 2, 3 and education, 1, 2, 3 and healthcare, 1, 2 and income inequalities, 1 and internet gambling, 1 and minimum wage, 1 universities, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and migration, 1 and terrorism, 1 tuition fees, 1 University College London Hospitals, 1 University for Industry, 1 University of East Anglia, 1 University of Lincoln, 1 Urban Splash, 1, 2 Vanity Fair, 1 VAT, 1, 2, 3 Vauxhall, 1 Venables, Jon, 1 Vestas wind turbines, 1 Victoria and Albert Museum, 1 Waitrose, 1 Waldfogel, Jane, 1 Wales, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and children, 1 devolution, 1 Walker, Sir David, 1 walking, 1, 2 Walsall, 1 Wanless, Sir Derek, 1 Wanstead, 1 Warm Front scheme, 1 Warner, Lord Norman, 1 Warsaw, 1 Warwick accord, 1 water utilities, 1 Watford, 1 welfare benefits child benefit, 1, 2 Employment Support Allowance, 1 and fraud, 1, 2, 3, 4 housing benefit, 1 incapacity benefit, 1, 2 Income Support, 1 Jobseeker’s Allowance, 1, 2, 3 and work, 1, 2 Welsh assembly, 1, 2 Wembley Stadium, 1 Westfield shopping mall, 1 Wetherspoons, 1 White, Marco Pierre, 1 Whittington Hospital, 1 Wiles, Paul, 1 Wilkinson, Richard, and Kate Pickett, 1 Williams, Professor Karel, 1 Williams, Raymond, 1 Williams, Rowan, 1 Wilson, Harold, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Wilson, Sir Richard, 1 wind turbines, 1, 2 Winslet, Kate, 1 winter fuel payments, 1 Wire, The, 1 Woking, 1, 2 Wolverhampton, 1 Woolf, Lord, 1 Wootton Bassett, 1, 2 working-class culture, 1 working hours, 1, 2 World Bank, 1 Wrexham, 1 Wright Robinson School, 1, 2, 3 xenophobia, 1 Y2K millennium bug, 1 Yarlswood detention centre, 1 Yeovil, 1 Yiewsley, 1 York, 1, 2, 3, 4 Young Person’s Guarantee, 1 Youth Justice Board, 1 Zimbabwe, 1, 2 About the Author Polly Toynbee is the Guardian’s social and political commentator.
Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy by Chris Hayes
affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, asset-backed security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, carried interest, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, dark matter, David Brooks, David Graeber, deindustrialization, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, fixed income, full employment, George Akerlof, hiring and firing, income inequality, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Julian Assange, Mark Zuckerberg, mass affluent, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, Nate Silver, peak oil, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rolodex, The Spirit Level, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce
A publication could devote itself entirely to reporting truthfully on, say, the allegations and charges of sexual assault against Assange, and yet it’s hard to imagine Assange would simply tip his cap to them for being “truthful.” If WikiLeaks’ exposure of the American security state shows the possibilities of Assange’s vision, its decision to post a massive trove of e-mails and documents from climate scientists at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit shows its limitation. The ten years’ worth of private e-mail correspondence between climate scientists within UEA and elsewhere revealed a group of academics who viewed themselves as under siege from well-funded and disingenuous critics, not to mention a group contemptuous and defensive toward their outside skeptics—not necessarily a flattering picture. But according to critics of global warming, the e-mails also showed the scientists to be guilty of genuine scientific fraud, plotting secretly to manipulate data to strengthen their case that the earth is warming as a result of increased carbon emissions.
“If your gut said, ‘Wait a minute, this global warming thing sounds like a scam,’ ” Beck told his audience, “well, I think you’re seeing it now. We told you this was going on, without proof, because we listened to our gut.” The frenzy in the conservative media occasioned mainstream outlets to also pick up the story, culminating with all three nightly network newscasts reporting the most damning snippets of the stolen e-mails. That attention then prompted no less than six official inquiries into the scientists’ conduct. The University of East Anglia, Penn State, the British House of Commons’ Science and Technology Committee, the British Royal Society, and even the U.S. Department of Commerce’s inspector general all sifted through the e-mails looking for evidence of malfeasance, deception, and misconduct. Every single one of the inquiries cleared the scientists of any scientific malpractice. Every one. All concluded that nothing revealed in the e-mails called into question either the conclusions of their published work or, more broadly, the robust consensus on anthropogenic global warming.
Nuclear War and Environmental Catastrophe by Noam Chomksy
British Empire, cuban missile crisis, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, energy security, Howard Zinn, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Malacca Straits, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks
On August 18, 2011, Huntsman tweeted, “To be clear. I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.” At the Heritage Foundation on December 6, 2011, he asserted, “there are questions about the validity of the science, evidenced by one university over in Scotland [sic] recently.” Huntsman’s remarks also coincided with an anonymous hacker’s release of stolen e-mails from the University of East Anglia and COP17 proceedings in Durban, South Africa. Evan McMorris-Santoro, “Jon Huntsman’s Climate Change Flip Flop Explained,” TalkingPointsMemo.com, December 6, 2011; Justin Gillis and Leslie Kaufman, “New Trove of Stolen E-mails from Climate Scientists is Released,” New York Times, November 22, 2011. On influence of Tea Party on Republican campaigns, see note 3, chap. 6. 9 At a rally in Florida, after Hurricane Irene narrowly bypassed the state, Michele Bachmann told the audience: “I don’t know how much God has to do to get the attention of the politicians.
Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto
affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Berlin Wall, Brownian motion, carbon footprint, Cepheid variable, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, desegregation, double helix, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fudge factor, ghettoisation, Harlow Shapley and Heber Curtis, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, informal economy, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, sharing economy, smart grid, Solar eclipse in 1919, stem cell, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, University of East Anglia, War on Poverty, white flight, Winter of Discontent, working poor
Anti-cap-and-trade opponents were gearing up for a “civil war” and the “greatest part of that battlefield is the global warming battle,” according to energy-industry-shill Lord Christopher Monckton, a British journalist with no particular expertise in climate science who travels America eruditely calling global warming “bullshit.”53 Obama’s delay gave opponents the time and ammunition they needed to regroup. CLIMATEGATE On November 17, 2009, the battle was rejoined. Days before the start of the Copenhagen climate summit, an unidentified hacker posted on a Russian FTP server a sixty-one-megabyte file containing e-mails stolen from servers at England’s University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The hacker then posted a link to the file on the climate skeptic blogs The Air Vent54 and Watts Up with That?55 as well as the blog RealClimate, which is run by several leading climate scientists, including Michael Mann.56 The CRU is one of the world’s leading centers for climate research and a hub of global climate science communication. The file contained thousands of private e-mails exchanged by top climate scientists over more than thirteen years.
Mike’s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. Thanks for the comments, Ray. Cheers Phil Prof. Phi l Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email email@example.com NR4 7TJ UK As in the polar bear case, a five-prong propaganda attack was employed: phony science; canned stories via bloggers for the press; AM talk radio and partisan cable news reaction and outrage; government intervention; and hand-wringing by the real actors, our much-maligned and patriotic heroes. Suddenly, scientists found themselves not just fending off junk science, but directly in the crosshairs.
Bakken shale, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, deindustrialization, energy security, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, income per capita, means of production, mutually assured destruction, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, peak oil, price discovery process, rising living standards, South China Sea, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War
One good analysis of the malfeasance of the climate scientists is The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert, published by Canadian investigative journalist Donna Laframboise in 2011.18 One of the earliest Climategate emails shows how the results of research were tailored to a political agenda. On July 29, 1999, Adam Markham of WWF (a non-government organization formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund) wrote to University of East Anglia climate scientists Mike Hulme and Nicola Sheard about a paper that Hulme and Sheard had written about climate change in Australasia: “I’m sure you will get some comments direct from Mike Rae in WWF Australia, but I wanted to pass on the gist of what they’ve said to me so far. They are worried that this may present a slightly more conservative approach to the risks than they are hearing from Australian scientists.
GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History by Diane Coyle
Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, big-box store, Bretton Woods, BRICs, clean water, computer age, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, Diane Coyle, double entry bookkeeping, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, financial intermediation, global supply chain, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Long Term Capital Management, mutually assured destruction, Nathan Meyer Rothschild: antibiotics, new economy, Occupy movement, purchasing power parity, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, University of East Anglia, working-age population
I would like to thank the following people for their suggestions and comments on drafts of the book: Simon Briscoe, Wendy Carlin, Brett Christophers, Tony Clayton, Bob Hahn, Andrew Haldane, Jonathan Haskel, Harold James, Andrew Kelly, Stephen King, Rob Metcalfe, Peter Sinclair, Paola Subacchi, and Romesh Vaitilingam. I have also benefited from comments from faculty and students attending a lecture I gave at the University of East Anglia in February 2013, and from attendees at a roundtable at the Legatum Institute in June 2012. As ever, I’m immensely grateful to my agent, Sara Menguc, and owe huge thanks to my long-suffering family, Rory, Adam, and Rufus. And to Cabbage the dog, who contributes not at all to GDP but greatly to welfare. NOTES INTRODUCTION 1. “Greece’s Statistics Chief Faces Criminal Probe,” Financial Times, 27 November 2011; “Greek Statistics Chief Faces Charges over Claims of Inflated 2009 Deficit Figure,” Ekathimerini.com, 22 January 2013, http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_22/01/2013_479717; “Numbers Game Turns Nasty for Greek Stats Chief,” Reuters, 14 March 2013, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/uk-greece-stats-insight-idUKBRE92D0AW20130314.
agricultural Revolution, British Empire, Climatic Research Unit, colonial rule, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Defenestration of Prague, Edmond Halley, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, failed state, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, friendly fire, Google Earth, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Khyber Pass, Mercator projection, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, Republic of Letters, South China Sea, the market place, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, unemployed young men, University of East Anglia, World Values Survey
I thank Christian Pfister and Martin Parry for sharing with me their recollections of the 1979 conference. Sanderson, The history, 285, notes BP and Shell sponsorship of the Climatic Research Unit, founded in 1971 as part of the University of East Anglia's School of Environmental Sciences. The Cambridge University Press volume was Wigley, Climate and history. 3. Report of the World Food Conference, Rome, 5–16 November 1974 (New York, 1975), 6–8 (at FAORLC-41001WorldFoodConference doc, accessed 9 Mar. 2012. Note that in 1981, two years after the University of East Anglia conference, Amartya Sen published his influential Poverty and famines, arguing that famine reflected faulty distribution rather than defective production: see page 108 above. 4. Houghton, Climate, xi (‘Executive summary’) http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_spm.pdf 5. http://inhofe.senate.gov/pressreleases/climateupdate.htm Speech by Senator Inhofe in the US Senate, 4 Jan. 2005 quoting with approval his speech on 28 July 2003.
At certain revolutions all the damned Are brought: and feel by turns the bitter change Of fierce extremes, extremes by change more fierce, From beds of raging fire to starve in ice Their soft ethereal warmth, and there to pine Immovable, infixed, and frozen round Periods of time; thence hurried back to fire.45 Epilogue: ‘It's the climate, stupid’1 ONCE UPON A TIME, THE HISTORY OF CLIMATE WAS A ‘HOT TOPIC’. IN 1979 the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations Environment Programme, the National Science Foundation, the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation paid for 250 historians, geographers, archaeologists and climatologists from 30 countries to attend the first international ‘Conference on Climate and History’, hosted by the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (England) – a unit sponsored by (among others) British Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell. Cambridge University Press later published a volume containing the most innovative of the conference papers. That same year, the World Meteorological Organization created the ‘World Climate Program’ with a mandate to ‘insert climatic considerations into the formulation of rational policy alternatives’.
Die Niederrheinisch-Westfälische Reichskreis, 1635–1650 (Münster, 1990: Schriftenreihe der Vereinigung zur Erforschung der neueren Geschichte, XVI) Salmon, J. H. M., The French religious wars in English political thought (Oxford, 1959) Sanabre, J., La acción de Francia en Cataluña en la pugna por la hegemonía de Europa (1640–1659) (Barcelona, 1956) Sandberg, B., Warrior pursuits: Noble culture and civil conflict in early modern France (Baltimore, 2010) Sanderson, M., The history of the University of East Anglia 1918–2000 (London, 2002) Sansom, G., A history of Japan, 1615–1867 (Stanford, 1963) Santoro, M., Le secentine napoletane della Biblioteca Nazionale di Napoli (Rome, 1986) Sanz Camañes, P., Política, hacienda y milicia en el Aragón de los últimos Austrias entre 1640 y 1680 (Zaragoza, 1997). Sargent, T. J. and F. R. Velde, The big problem of small change (Princeton, 2002) Sasaki Junnosuke, Daimyô to hyakushô (Tokyo, 1966) Sasaki Junnosuke and R.
How Bad Are Bananas?: The Carbon Footprint of Everything by Mike Berners-Lee
The skeptics point out that there may be potential for group-think and mass hysteria. These are warnings that should be taken seriously. Furthermore, there have been occasional errors in the IPCC’s work, and even the hint of the odd deliberate misrepresentation. However, the standard of integrity that is demanded of the climate change believers is on a different plane altogether from that demanded of the skeptics. Some scientists at the University of East Anglia have been in world in headline-hitting trouble for allegedly “sexing up” their work in a way that the some of the skeptics would consider quite normal. The resulting scandal, which turned out to be about not all that much, has been hugely damaging to popular understanding of climate science. It’s worth bearing in mind that it would also be possible to criticize the IPCC for its caution.
Alan Partridge: Nomad: Nomad by Alan Partridge
EPILOGUE *** BUT QUESTIONS REMAINED. Why had my father failed to make it to his Dungeness interview? What had befallen him that day? These questions still hung in the air like the smell of sausage fat, long after the cooked breakfast has been eaten and the dishwasher stacked. And so, using the money that I refused to pay to my branding consultant, I hired a team of investigators, diligent students from the University of East Anglia, who trawled visitor records and official correspondence from the power station. They learnt that my father had actually made it to the interview but performed exceptionally badly and hadn’t made it to the next round. It seems he fabricated the letter concerning his failure to attend because he didn’t want his family and friends to realise how thick he was. And he took this dark secret to the grave with him (along with an envelope of his premium bonds – never known why).
The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse by Mohamed A. El-Erian
Airbnb, balance sheet recession, bank run, barriers to entry, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, carried interest, collapse of Lehman Brothers, corporate governance, currency peg, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, financial innovation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial intermediation, financial repression, Flash crash, forward guidance, friendly fire, full employment, future of work, Hyman Minsky, If something cannot go on forever, it will stop, income inequality, inflation targeting, Jeff Bezos, Kenneth Rogoff, Khan Academy, liquidity trap, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, moral hazard, mortgage debt, oil shale / tar sands, price stability, principal–agent problem, quantitative easing, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, sharing economy, sovereign wealth fund, The Great Moderation, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, yield curve
Janet Yellen, “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability,” speech at the 2014 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 2, 2014, http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140702a.htm. CHAPTER 4: HOW AND WHY THIS BOOK IS ORGANIZED 1. Andrew G. Haldane, “Growing, Fast and Slow,” speech at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, England, February 17, 2015, http://www.bis.org/review/r150219b.pdf. 2. Mohamed A. El-Erian, When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008). PART II: CONTEXT: THE RISE, COLLAPSE, AND RESURRECTION OF CENTRAL BANKING 1. Martin Wolf, “We Are Trapped in a Cycle of Credit Booms,” Financial Times, October 8, 2014, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1a9f058e-4d43-11e4-bf60-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Lfv9pY4D.
GCHQ by Richard Aldrich
Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial exploitation, cuban missile crisis, friendly fire, illegal immigration, index card, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Journalism, packet switching, private military company, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, University of East Anglia, Yom Kippur War, Zimmermann PGP
Lewis (GCHQ) to Todd (RAE), ‘Sideways Looking System’, M/1332/ 9000/11C, 10.05.63, ibid. 34 Air Staff Requirement No 817, ‘Sideways Looking Airborne Search Reviewing System’, 05.08.64, ibid. 35 LSIC/10/64, ‘Airborne Sigint Collection’, 12.03.64, AIR 40/2820. 36 JCG/S/24, Operational Requirements Committee, 19.07.67, AIR 20/11747. 37 LSIB/12/66 (Final) 20.10.66, discussed in WD 86/87 ‘Air Staff Requirement No.389 (HS801(R))’, 07.12.67, DEFE 68/76. 38 Within NATO Britain had full cooperation on elint with Norway, Denmark, Germany and Turkey. There was limited cooperation with Italy on naval tactical elint. Holland did naval elint but there was ‘no cooperation’, and with France there was also ‘no exchange’. DCDS (I) Maguire memo, ‘Elint Collection in NATO’, and annex, 27.11.67, AIR 20/11747. 39 Britain’s cooperation with the BND Technical Sub-Committee is discussed in SZ/CSA/116/4 A.G. Touch, 1961, Zuckerman papers, University of East Anglia Library. 40 DCDS (I) Maguire memo, ‘Elint Collection in NATO’, 27.11.67, AIR 20/11747. See also DASB Brief for mtg with CDS, 22.11.67, ibid. 41 Ibid. 42 Johnson, American Cryptology, Vol.2, p.359. 43 LSIB/1/67, 16.02.67, discussed in WD 86/87 ‘Air Staff Requirement No. 389 (HS801(R))’, 07.12.67, DEFE 68/76. 44 Aiken (AC(I)) memo, ‘Replacement Aircraft – No 51 Squadron’, 01.08.67, AIR20/12072.
Hurley (RNSM) General Sir Hastings Ismay (LHCMA) Admiral Louis Le Bailly (CCC) Selwyn Lloyd (CCC) Stuart Milner-Barry (CCC) Sir Walter Monckton (BOD) Field Marshal Lord Montgomery of Alamein (IWM) Admiral Lord Mountbatten (HL) Admiral William Parry (IWM) Major General Sir William Penney (LHCMA) Commander Alfred Roake (RNSM) Vice Admiral Gerard Rushbrooke (IWM) Duncan Sandys (CCC) Air Commodore Colin Simpson (LHCMA) Lord Strang (CCC) George Strauss (CCC) Lord Swinton (CCC) Lord Weatherill (Templeman Library, University of Kent at Canterbury) Solly Zuckerman (University of East Anglia) II. United States Stewart Alsop (HGARC) Henry Brandon (LC) William Bundy (PU) General Charles Cabell (BAFB) William Colby (PU) Charles H. Donnelly (USMHI) Allen Dulles (PU) Dwight D. Eisenhower (DDEL) Foreign Affairs Oral History Program (LL) General A.M. Gruenther (DDEL) C.D. Jackson (DDEL) Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJL) Philip M. Kaiser (HSTL) George Lardner (LC) Admiral William D.
MacroWikinomics: Rebooting Business and the World by Don Tapscott, Anthony D. Williams
accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, Bretton Woods, business climate, business process, car-free, carbon footprint, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collaborative editing, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, colonial rule, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, demographic transition, distributed generation, don't be evil, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fault tolerance, financial innovation, Galaxy Zoo, game design, global village, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, hive mind, Home mortgage interest deduction, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jaron Lanier, jimmy wales, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Marshall McLuhan, medical bankruptcy, megacity, mortgage tax deduction, Netflix Prize, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shock, online collectivism, open borders, open economy, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, scientific mainstream, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, social web, software patent, Steve Jobs, text mining, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, value at risk, WikiLeaks, X Prize, young professional, Zipcar
From decisions about whether to regulate a new technology, to the ongoing need to assess the impacts of urban development on the local ecology, objective scientific analysis is often central to the formulation of effective public policies. As the intermingling of science and public policy intensifies in an era of new global risks, questions about how scientists relate to the public and how the public relates to science are becoming critical. Nothing illustrates the challenges better than the recent “climategate” scandal in which a large stash of e-mails from and to investigators at the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia provided more than enough evidence for concern about the way some climate science is done. The science discussed in the e-mails is mostly from one small area of climate research—the taking of raw temperature data from thermometers, satellites, and proxy measures of historical climate such as tree rings and turning it into usable information on temperature trends. Under director Phil Jones’s management, the CRU assembled the most comprehensive thermometer data record in the world, much of it under contract to the U.S.
In turn, they accuse their attackers of conflating McIntyre’s legitimate technical criticism of their methods with “unsupported, unjustified and unverified accusations of scientific mal-conduct that confused the public.” They were partially vindicated when the U.S. House of Representatives’ Science and Technology Committee concluded in March 2010 that there was, in fact, no evidence to support charges that the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit or its director, Phil Jones, had tampered with data or perverted the peer review process to exaggerate the threat of global warming. Moreover, the committee noted that nothing in the more than one thousand stolen e-mails challenged the scientific consensus that “global warming is happening and that it is induced by human activity.” Still, that doesn’t mean that Jones and colleagues are off the hook.
airport security, availability heuristic, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, Carmen Reinhart, Claude Shannon: information theory, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, Donald Trump, Edmond Halley, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, Freestyle chess, fudge factor, George Akerlof, haute cuisine, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, housing crisis, income per capita, index fund, Internet Archive, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, locking in a profit, Loma Prieta earthquake, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, Nate Silver, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pets.com, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, security theater, short selling, Skype, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons
Climate scientists have reacted to this challenge in a variety of ways, some involving themselves more in the political debate and others keeping it at arm’s length. Michael Mann, who is director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, was once at the center of a controversy. “Climategate” concerned the hacking of a server at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia,103 which produces the temperature record that the UK’s Met Office uses. Skeptics alleged that Mann and other scientists had conspired to manipulate the CRU’s temperature record. The pertinent facts are that the scientists were cleared of wrongdoing by a panel of their peers,104 and that the CRU’s temperature record is quite consistent with the others105—but Mann and other scientists in the hacked e-mails demonstrated a clear concern with the public relations elements of how the science would be perceived.
Some scientists express a preference for the NASA/GISS record because it does a better job of accounting for the Arctic and a few other areas where temperature stations are sparse. This is potentially important because there has been more warming in the Arctic than in any other part of the globe. 64. Global Temperature Anomalies, National Atmospheric and Oceanic Association. ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat. 65. Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt. 66. Japan Meteorological Agency. http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/climate/cpdinfo/temp/list/an_wld.html. 67. Note that the two satellite records use some of the same underlying data. 68. Some analyses have mistakenly used the satellite temperature records for the upper atmosphere rather than the lower atmosphere.
Reinventing Discovery: The New Era of Networked Science by Michael Nielsen
Albert Einstein, augmented reality, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, Cass Sunstein, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dark matter, discovery of DNA, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, Firefox, Freestyle chess, Galaxy Zoo, Internet Archive, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Kevin Kelly, Magellanic Cloud, means of production, medical residency, Nicholas Carr, publish or perish, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, semantic web, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Singh, Skype, slashdot, social web, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Nature of the Firm, The Wisdom of Crowds, University of East Anglia, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge
This is a natural consequence of the fact that while our attention doesn’t scale, sharing knowledge does. In an open-but-filtered world there is no problem with people such as Grothendieck pursuing their own solitary program. Won’t open science sometimes be used for ends that many scientists find distasteful? In November of 2009, hackers broke into a computer system in one of the world’s leading centers for climate research, the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, in the UK. The hackers downloaded more than 1,000 email messages sent between climate scientists. They then leaked the emails (and many other documents) to bloggers and journalists. The incident received worldwide media attention, as many climate change skeptics seized upon the emails, claiming that they contained evidence to prove that the notion of human-caused climate change was a conspiracy among climate scientists.
airport security, Albert Einstein, BRICs, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, Climategate, corporate social responsibility, decarbonisation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fear of failure, income inequality, Joseph Schumpeter, market fundamentalism, Naomi Klein, new economy, nuclear winter, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, union organizing, University of East Anglia
Naomi Oreskes, “The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Science 306, no. 5702 (December 2004): 1686, doi:10.1126/science.1103618. 6. William R. L. Anderegg et al., “Expert Credibility in Climate Change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 21 (June 2010), doi:10.1073/pnas.1003187107. 7. These reports include those by the U.K. House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee, an independent international panel set up by the University of East Anglia, and the Independent Climate Change Email Review. All concluded that the e-mails did not undermine the findings of climate science or the “rigour and honesty” of the scientists involved. The reports are available at http://www.cce-review.org; http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/CRUstatements/SAP. 8. The full reports and summaries are available online at http://www.millenniumassessment.org. 9.
How Much Is Enough?: Money and the Good Life by Robert Skidelsky, Edward Skidelsky
banking crisis, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Bonfire of the Vanities, call centre, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, death of newspapers, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, lump of labour, market clearing, market fundamentalism, profit motive, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, union organizing, University of East Anglia, wage slave, World Values Survey
Thus, for instance, it was the bleakest of the IPCC’s six scenarios that became the basis of the influential 2006 Stern Review, which in turn inspired Tony Blair’s statement, in an open letter to EU heads of state, that “we have a window of only 10–15 years to take the steps we need to avoid crossing a catastrophic tipping-point.”11 (That was in 2006. We now have only five to ten years left.) The idea of a catastrophic “tipping point” or “point of no return” is rejected by most serious scientists as lacking sufficient empirical foundation. “The language of catastrophe is not the language of science,” writes Mike Hulme, former director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Research at the University of East Anglia.12 But that has not stopped its use by some who should know better. Veteran geochemist James Lovelock (of whom more later) sees the world approaching a state “that could easily be described as Hell: so hot, so deadly that only a handful of the teeming billions now alive will survive.”13 Passages like this present us with a secular version of Pascal’s famous wager: they conjure an evil so fearful that its avoidance is worth any sacrifice, however great.
The Irrational Economist: Making Decisions in a Dangerous World by Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Paul Slovic
Andrei Shleifer, availability heuristic, bank run, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cross-subsidies, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, endowment effect, experimental economics, financial innovation, Fractional reserve banking, George Akerlof, hindsight bias, incomplete markets, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, iterative process, Loma Prieta earthquake, London Interbank Offered Rate, market bubble, market clearing, moral hazard, mortgage debt, placebo effect, price discrimination, price stability, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, statistical model, stochastic process, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, urban planning
He writes two regular columns: “Finance in the 21st Century” for Project Syndicate and “Economic View” for the New York Times. Paul Slovic, University of Oregon Paul Slovic is a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon and a founder and president of Decision Research. He holds both an MA (1962) and a PhD (1964) from the University of Michigan. He has received honorary doctorates from the Stockholm School of Economics (1996) and the University of East Anglia (2005). He studies human judgment, decision making, and risk analysis. He and his colleagues worldwide have developed methods to describe risk perceptions and measure their impacts on individuals, industry, and society. He publishes extensively and serves as a consultant to industry and government. His most recent books include The Perception of Risk (Earthscan, 2000), The Social Amplification of Risk, with N.
Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto by Stewart Brand
agricultural Revolution, back-to-the-land, biofilm, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, business process, Cass Sunstein, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dark matter, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Elon Musk, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, glass ceiling, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, Hernando de Soto, informal economy, interchangeable parts, invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Kevin Kelly, Kibera, land tenure, M-Pesa, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, microbiome, New Urbanism, out of africa, Paul Graham, peak oil, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, stem cell, Stewart Brand, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thomas Malthus, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, working-age population, Y2K
Of course history that has moved on from what I described in 2009 should be indicated. And books have come along that expound some of my topics better than I; I wish I’d had them in hand before. Start, as the book does, with climate. In December 2009, the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen was undermined by a suspiciously sophisticated hack of emails among climatologists at the University of East Anglia, England. Once again, climate change deniers dominated the public discourse and prevented action on greenhouse gases. I responded with a New York Times op-ed titled “Four Sides to Every Story,” suggesting that it helps to distinguish four kinds of views about global warming according to whether they are driven mainly by ideology or by evidence. “Denialists” and “Skeptics” both have doubts about climate change, but only the science-based Skeptics change their opinions with changing evidence.
Bedsit Disco Queen: How I Grew Up and Tried to Be a Pop Star by Tracey Thorn
‘something in the media’? – was too good an opportunity to turn down. In those days, it was a readily available opportunity. My A-level results were scarcely brilliant by any standards – an A for English, which I was proud of, but then only a C for history and a disappointing E for economics – but were still good enough to get me into Hull. Not my first choice, admittedly; I’d been rejected by the University of East Anglia after a disastrous interview where I suddenly couldn’t think of anything insightful to say about 1984, but the course at Hull had the distinct advantage of beginning with twentieth-century literature, instead of the study of Beowulf, and that appealed to me, so the choice was made. I’d be leaving home and going up to Hull. My last night at home was spent out at a party, and afterwards I sat up talking to him till 4.30 a.m.
Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jörgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows
agricultural Revolution, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dematerialisation, demographic transition, financial independence, game design, income per capita, informal economy, means of production, new economy, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review
., Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2001). Also available along with numerous illustrations atwwwipcc.ch. 92. For a colorful presentation of the skeptic's view on climate and all other environmental issues, see Lomborg, Environmentalist. 93. See the vastly informative Web site of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, www.cru.uea.ac.uk. 94. See, for example, "Global Warming. Stormy Weather," Time, November 13, 2000, 35-40, with regional weather forecasts for Europe to 2050. 95. Watson et al., Climate Change 2001. 96. These data come from ice cores drilled deep into the Antarctic ice sheet. The polar ice has accumulated over thousands of years, layer after layer, and in each layer are trapped tiny air bubbles, preserved from prehistoric times.
I, Partridge: We Need to Talk About Alan by Steve Coogan
And with that, I picked up my coat and left the building, the warm applause of my colleagues still ringing in my ears like a big church bell. Sadly, circumstance has meant that I’ve not been able to get back to the hospital in the intervening 31 years. In the main that’s down to me – work commitments have made it simply unfeasible. But for the record I’d like to point out that the hospital is not entirely blameless itself. In 2001 it moved to a new site around the corner from the University of East Anglia. The studios from where I used to broadcast my show were reduced to rubble. And I think most reasonable people would agree that by allowing that to happen the NHS Trust effectively voided my promise. 42 School trip to Heston Farm, 1964. I maintain it was self-defence. 43 Press play on Track 9. 44 If he was particularly unlucky it would have been a Bouncing Betty. These horrible little devices are designed to spring three feet into the air before exploding and inflicting the maximum number of casualties on an enemy.
The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey
3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve
For example, in January 2015 the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that there is 38 percent chance that 2014 was warmer than 2010 or 2005, the next two warmest years in the NOAA records. The independent climate research group Berkeley Earth also concluded that 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850 while noting, however, that within the margin of error, it is tied with 2005 and 2010. The UK Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit at University of East Anglia ranked 2014 as tied with 2010 for the warmest year in the record, but added that the uncertainty ranges mean it’s not possible to definitively say which of several recent years was the warmest. Climatologists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville have been tracking global temperatures for the past thirty-six years using satellite data that measure the bottom five miles of the atmosphere.
Cold: Adventures in the World's Frozen Places by Bill Streever
What had been frozen peat was becoming a landscape of mud and lakes. An area the size of Germany and France combined could be poised to release seventy billion tons of methane. More would come from Alaska and Canada and various mountain peaks. Sergei Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in western Siberia called the situation “an ecological landslide.” David Viner, a senior scientist at the University of East Anglia in England and part of the Russian permafrost project, said, “There are no brakes you can apply.” It is June twentieth, the eve of the summer solstice, on Alaska’s North Slope and 60 degrees Fahrenheit, or 16 degrees Celsius, or 289 Kelvin. Said another way, it is 520 degrees Fahrenheit above absolute zero. A man tells me of a musk ox frozen in the sea ice, standing up, thirty miles west of here.
The Fry Chronicles: An Autobiography by Stephen Fry
Alistair Cooke, back-to-the-land, Desert Island Discs, Etonian, Isaac Newton, pre–internet, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, South China Sea, The Wisdom of Crowds, University of East Anglia, Winter of Discontent
The other two, Paul and Charlie, were more than competent at the rendering, skimming, bonding, sanding, painting and other ancillary skills that might be expected from a general builder, but they had another quality. They were quite extraordinarily funny. I brought them coffee, as you do when you have the builders in, and I chatted with them in what I hoped was a friendly and unpatronizing manner but just couldn’t get over how much they made me laugh. They had been at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, which seat of higher education they had quickly vacated, dropping out and moving to London, working in the building trade and wondering if comedy might ever be an attainable goal. Charlie was the lead singer in a punk outfit which apparently had a cult following. Paul entertained our household with impressions of London types, the especial favourite being a Greek cockney who had an eccentric way with very cockneyfied English.
That Used to Be Us by Thomas L. Friedman, Michael Mandelbaum
3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Andy Kessler, Ayatollah Khomeini, bank run, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, centre right, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collective bargaining, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, energy security, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, full employment, Google Earth, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, job automation, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Lean Startup, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, more computing power than Apollo, Network effects, obamacare, oil shock, pension reform, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, WikiLeaks
True, the consequences of the ongoing increase in the global temperature could turn out to be more benign than the forecasts of most climate scientists. Let’s hope that they do. But they could also turn out to be worse—much worse. You would not know that, though, from reading the newspapers in 2010. Climate skeptics, many funded by the fossil-fuel industries, seized on a few leaked e-mails among climate scientists working with Great Britain’s University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit to gin up a controversy about the conduct of some of its scientific investigators. Whatever one thinks of this specific case, it hardly invalidates the scientific consensus on global warming based on independent research conducted all over the world, nor do a few minor mistakes in the UN’s massive Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. But for a public too busy to take the time to study these issues, without the background to appreciate fully how little these errors touched on the larger scientific certainties and disinclined to ask why and how climate scientists all over the world could organize a vast conspiracy to get people to believe this problem was more serious than it is, these news stories created doubt and confusion about the issue and helped to stall any U.S. climate legislation.
The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature by Matt Ridley
affirmative action, Alfred Russel Wallace, Atahualpa, Bonfire of the Vanities, demographic transition, double helix, Drosophila, feminist movement, invention of agriculture, Menlo Park, phenotype, rent control, theory of mind, University of East Anglia, women in the workforce
The Chinese, deprived of the chance to have more than one child, killed more than 250,000 girls after birth between 1979 and 1984.65 In some age groups in China, there are 122 boys for every 100 girls. In one recent study of clinics in Bombay, of 8,000 abortions, 7,997 were of female foetuses.66 It is possible that selective spontaneous abortion also explains much of the animal data. In the case of the coypu, studied by Morris Gosling of the University of East Anglia, females in good condition miscarry whole litters if they are too female-biased, and start again. Magnus Nordborg of Stanford University, who has studied the implications of sex-selective infanticide in China, believes that such biased miscarriage could explain the baboon data. But it seems a wasteful way to proceed.67 There are many well-established natural factors that bias the sex ratio of human offspring, proving that it is at least possible.
Hot: Living Through the Next Fifty Years on Earth by Mark Hertsgaard
Berlin Wall, business continuity plan, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth, en.wikipedia.org, Fall of the Berlin Wall, food miles, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, peak oil, Port of Oakland, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, the built environment, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, transit-oriented development, University of East Anglia, urban planning
By late 2009, key parts of the media in the United States and internationally had reverted to their long-standing posture of scientific illiteracy and de facto complicity with the deniers' disinformation campaign. As the Copenhagen climate summit began in December 2009, almost every major news organization in the world gave front-page coverage to the deniers' unfounded accusations of widespread fraud on the part of leading climate scientists. Quoting people out of context and cherry-picking data, the deniers accused scientists at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in Britain of falsifying results and then lying about it, and of conspiring to suppress dissenting views. The only news organization that took the time to investigate rather than merely echo these charges was the Associated Press. A team of AP reporters read and analyzed each of the 1,073 stolen e-mails, a total of about 1 million words of text. The AP found that some of the East Anglia scientists had said nasty things about deniers—hardly a surprise, considering all the nasty things deniers had said about them.
The Strangest Man: The Hidden Life of Paul Dirac, Mystic of the Atom by Graham Farmelo
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Arthur Eddington, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, double helix, Ernest Rutherford, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, gravity well, Henri Poincaré, invention of radio, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Murray Gell-Mann, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Simon Singh, Solar eclipse in 1919, Stephen Hawking, strikebreaker, University of East Anglia
BOD Bodleian Library, University of Oxford, UK. BRISTU Bristol University archive, UK. BRISTRO Bristol Records Office, UK. CALTECH California Institute of Technology, archive, USA. CHRIST’S Old Library, Christ’s College, Cambridge University, UK. CHURCHILL Churchill Archives Centre, Churchill College, Cambridge University, UK. DDOCS Dirac letters and papers, property of Monica Dirac. EANGLIA Tots and Quots archive, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. FSU Paul A. M. Dirac Papers, Florida State University Libraries, Tallahassee, Florida, USA. All of the letters Dirac’s mother wrote to him are in this archive. IAS Institute for Advanced Study, archive, USA. KING’S King’s College, Cambridge; unpublished writings of J. M. Keynes. LC Library of Congress, Collections of the Manuscript Division. LINDAU Archive of Lindau meetings, Germany.
Meat: A Benign Extravagance by Simon Fairlie
agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, call centre, carbon footprint, Community Supported Agriculture, deindustrialization, en.wikipedia.org, food miles, Food sovereignty, Haber-Bosch Process, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, informal economy, Just-in-time delivery, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, megacity, Northern Rock, Panamax, peak oil, refrigerator car, scientific mainstream, stem cell, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce
Center for Global Issues, http://www.highyieldconservation.org/background.html 48 Popper, D E and F J (1999), ‘The Buffalo Commons: Metaphor as Method’, Geographical Review, 89(4), 1999, pp 491-510, draft available at http://www.gprc.org/buffalocommons_method.html 49 Clauss, Marcus and Hummel, Jürgen (2005), ‘The Digestive Performance of Mammalian Herbivores: Why Big may not be Better’, Mammal Review, Vol 35, 2005, pp 174-87. 50 Subak, Susan (2004), Methane from the House of Tudor and the Ming Dynasty, CSERGE/ University of East Anglia, http://www.uea.ac.uk/env/cserge/pub/wp/gec/gec_1994_06.htm 51 Westing, Arthur H (1976), ‘A World in Balance’, Environmental Conservation, 8 (3), pp 177-83; cited in Coppinger, R and Smith, C (1985) The Domestication of Evolution, Environmental Conservation, 10 (4), pp 283-92. 52 Savory, Allan with Butter field, Jody (1999), Holistic Management, Island Press, p 198. 53 Keppler, F et al (2006), ‘Methane Emissions from Terrestrial Plants under Aerobic Conditions’, Nature, 439, 187-91. 54 Crutzen, P J et al (2006), ‘Methane Production from Mixed Tropical Savanna and Forest Vegetation in Venezuela, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 6, 3093-7, 2006. 55 Houweling, S et al (2006), ‘Atmospheric Constraints on Methane Emissions from Vegetation’, Geophysical Research Letters, 33 Art No L15821 .
The Age of Wonder by Richard Holmes
Ada Lovelace, Albert Einstein, British Empire, Copley Medal, Dava Sobel, double helix, Edmond Halley, Etonian, experimental subject, Fellow of the Royal Society, invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Harrison: Longitude, music of the spheres, placebo effect, polynesian navigation, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Solar eclipse in 1919, Stephen Hawking, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, trade route, unbiased observer, University of East Anglia, éminence grise
I am also hugely grateful to Professor Amartya Sen, then Master of Trinity College, Cambridge, and the Fellows of Trinity, for giving me two wonderful summers as Visiting Fellow Commoner (2000, 2002), and enabling me (among much else) to spend long evenings talking with mathematicians, chemists, astronomers and astrophysicists-several of them Nobel Prize-winners-which gave me some sense of what science is really about. My warmest personal thanks are due to my old friend and colleague Professor Jon Cook, to whom this book is dedicated; to Professor Kathryn Hughes and Dr Druin Burch (my medical postgraduate) at the University of East Anglia; William St Clair, Richard Serjeantson and Priya Natarajan (our beautiful astrophysicist) at Trinity College, Cambridge; Professor Christoph Bode at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich; Roderick Winstrop at the Cambridge Observatory; Jim Saulter (pharmacist) and John Allen at Penzance; Debbie James, Curator at the Herschel Museum, Bath; Lenore Symons, the Archivist at the Royal Institution, London; Celia Joicey and Pallavi Vadhia at the National Portrait Gallery; Pierre Lombarde, Directeur, Centre de Documentation, Musée de l’Air et de l’Espace, Le Bourget; Dr Paul Baronek, then of GlaxoSmithKline, for his advice on drugs and medical procedures; Alan Judd for late-night intelligence at The Reform; Patricia Duncker for discussing the fact and fiction of telescopes; Tim Dee of the BBC for producing our three drama-documentaries, The Frankenstein Experiment (Radio 3, 2002), A Cloud in a Paper Bag (Radio 3, 2007) and Anaesthesia (Radio 4, 2009); my brother Adrian Holmes of Young & Rubicam, and my sister Tessa Holmes of the London College of Printing, for their shrewd help with questions of presentation and design; my late uncle, Squadron Leader David Gordon (RAF Bomber Command), who taught me to build short-wave radios, to understand the principles of flight, and once smuggled me into the cockpit of his Vulcan V bomber (not armed); the West Kent Gliding Club and the Norfolk Hot Air Balloon Co. for some highly instructive airborne moments; Eleanor Tremain for finding Andromeda; Dr Percy Harrison, Head of Science, Eton College, for patiently trying to save me from at least some of my scientific howlers; Mr Glasgow, Department of Orthopaedics, Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, for discussing anaesthetics in the few seconds before he put me under; Richard Fortey, FRS, for swift, exacting and helpful observations at proof stage; and finally Sir Michael Holroyd, for simply being such an inspiration to an entire generation of biographers (Romantic or otherwise).
affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, anti-communist, Bakken shale, bank run, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, centre right, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collective bargaining, crony capitalism, David Brooks, desegregation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, energy security, estate planning, Fall of the Berlin Wall, George Gilder, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, invisible hand, job automation, low skilled workers, market fundamentalism, Mont Pelerin Society, More Guns, Less Crime, Nate Silver, New Journalism, obamacare, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ralph Nader, Renaissance Technologies, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, school choice, school vouchers, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Chicago School, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, Unsafe at Any Speed, War on Poverty, working poor
Previously, the United States had declined to join other developed nations in agreeing to limit greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Given Obama’s position, time seemed to be running out for the fossil fuel forces and their free-market allies. Then, on November 17, 2009, an anonymous commenter on a contrarian Web site declared, “A miracle has happened.” With lethal timing, an unidentified saboteur had hacked expertly into the University of East Anglia’s Web site and uploaded thousands of internal e-mails detailing the private communications of the scientists working in its famed Climatic Research Unit. The climatologists at the British university had been in constant communication with those in America, and now all of their unguarded professional doubts, along with their unguarded and sometimes contemptuous asides about their opponents, stretching all the way back to 1996, were visible for the entire world to read.