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The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith
Bretton Woods, BRICs, clean water, Climategate, colonial rule, deglobalization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, flex fuel, global supply chain, Google Earth, guest worker program, Hans Island, hydrogen economy, ice-free Arctic, informal economy, invention of agriculture, invisible hand, land tenure, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Y2K
A murmur rolled through the hall—even scientists enjoy a good animated graphic over tables of numbers any day. After Serreze’s talk we milled around some more, wrangling over things like “model downscaling,” “cloud forcing,” and “nonlinear dynamics.” Some were revising the old projections for an ice-free Arctic Ocean from 2050 to 2035, or even 2013. Others—including me—argued for natural variability. We thought the 2007 retreat could just be a freak and the sea ice would recover, filling up its old territory by the following year. We were wrong. The excursion persisted for two more years, with 2008 and 2009 also breaking records for the Arctic summer sea-ice minimum.
By responding in this way to small global temperature changes, sea ice thus amplifies them even more.292 While its global effect is small, the ice-albedo feedback is uniquely powerful in the Arctic because it is the only place on Earth where a major ocean gets coated with ephemeral floating sea ice during the summer. Antarctica, in contrast, is a continent of land, thickly buried beneath permanent, kilometers-thick glaciers. For this and several other reasons, climate warming is more amplified in the Arctic than the Antarctic. 293,294 As an ice-free Arctic Ocean warms up, it acts like a giant hot-water bottle, warming the chilly Arctic air as the Sun crawls off the horizon each winter. The sea ice that does eventually form is thin and crackly, allowing more of the ocean’s heat to seep out even during the depths of winter. Winters become milder, the autumn freeze-up happens later, and the spring thaw arrives earlier.
Dream On So by 2050 will global trade flows be pouring through the Arctic Ocean, as they do today through the Suez and Panama canals? Impossible. Those operate 365 days per year with no ice whatsoever. At best the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free for a few days to a few weeks in summer and even then, there is no such thing as a truly “ice-free” Arctic Ocean. From autumn through spring, there will be expanding first-year ice cover, slowing ships down even with icebreaker escort. In summer, there will always be lingering bits of sea ice floating around, as well as thick icebergs calved from land-based glaciers into the sea (a glacier iceberg sank the Titanic, not sea ice).
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas
accounting loophole / creative accounting, Climatic Research Unit, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, ice-free Arctic, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, price stability, South China Sea, supervolcano
Given that these high-altitude wind belts-narrow corridors of rapidly moving air at the top of the troposphere-mark the boundaries between the different air masses, their gradual movement shows that the location of the world's typical climate zones is already starting to shift in response to rising global temperatures. What we have so far witnessed is still only the beginning. As one group of scientists warned recently: ‘The Arctic system is moving toward a new state that falls outside the envelope of recent Earth history.’ As future chapters show, this new ice-free Arctic will see extreme levels of warmth unlike anything experienced by the northern polar regions for millions of years. Danger in the Alps When the Englishmen Craig Higgins and Victor Saunders left the Hornli hut at 4 a.m. on 15 July 2003, they had no idea that they would end the day being part of the biggest-ever rescue on Switzerland's iconic Matterhorn.
., 2007: ‘Warm Arctic continents during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum’, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, in press p. 203 higher rainfall: Pagani, M., et al., 2006: Arctic hydrology during global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum', Nature, 442, 671-5 p. 203 no ice: Kerr, R., 2004: ‘Signs of a warm, ice-free Arctic’, Science, 305,1693 p. 203 temperatures soared: Pagani, M., et al., 2006: An ancient carbon mystery', Science, 314,1556-7 p. 204 Gerald Dickens: Dickens, G., 1999: ‘The blast in the past’, Nature, 401, 752-5 p. 204 John Higgins and Daniel Schrag: Higgins, A., and Schrag, D., 2006: ‘Beyond methane: Towards a theory for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum’, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 245, 523-37 p. 204 early Eocene: Lowenstein, T., and Demicco, R., 2006: ‘Elevated Eocene atmospheric CO2 and its subsequent decline’, Science, 313,1928 p. 204 30 times faster: 2006: ‘Lesson from 55 million years ago says climate change could be faster than expected’, Daily Telegraph, 17 February 2006 p. 204 searing global heatwave: Thomas, D., et al., 2002: ‘Warming the fuel for the fire: Evidence for the thermal dissociation of methane hydrate during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum’, Geology, 30,12, 1067-70 p. 205 decrease by 85 per cent: Buffett, B., and Archer, D., 2004: ‘Global inventory of methane hydrate: sensitivity to changes in the deep ocean’, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 227,185-99 p. 205 Arctic Ocean: see ‘Methane hydrates and global warming’, RealClimate blog, 12 December 2005, http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?
A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World by William J. Bernstein
Admiral Zheng, asset allocation, bank run, Benoit Mandelbrot, British Empire, call centre, clean water, Columbian Exchange, Corn Laws, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, Doha Development Round, domestication of the camel, double entry bookkeeping, Eratosthenes, financial innovation, Gini coefficient, ice-free Arctic, imperial preference, income inequality, intermodal, James Hargreaves, John Harrison: Longitude, Khyber Pass, low skilled workers, non-tariff barriers, placebo effect, Port of Oakland, refrigerator car, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, spice trade, spinning jenny, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, transcontinental railway, upwardly mobile, working poor
See Rodrigues see also Donna J. Nincic, "Sea Lane Security and U.S. Maritime Trade: Chokepoints as Scarce Resources," in Sam J. Tangredi, ed., Globalization and Maritime Power (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2002), 143-169. 7. Jessie C. Carman, "Economic and Strategic Implications of Ice-Free Arctic Seas," in Globalization and Maritime Power 171-188. 8. Patrick J. Buchanan, The Great Betrayal (Boston: Little, Brown, 1998), 224. 9. Bairoch, Economics and World History, 47-55, 135-138. 10. Mark Bils, "Tariff Protection and Production in the Early U.S. Cotton Textile Industry," The Journal of Economic History, 44, no. 4 (December 1984): 1041, 1045. 11.
Calmes, Jackie, "Despite Buoyant Economic Times, Americans Don't Buy Free Trade," The Wall Street Journal (December 10, 1998). Carapace, Ian, Review of Roman Coins from India (Paula J. Turner), Classical Review 41 (January 1991): 264-265. Carman, Jessie C., "Economic and Strategic Implications of Ice-Free Arctic Seas," in Globalization and Maritime Power (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2002). Carney, Timothy P., The Big Ripoff (New York: Wiley, 2006). Chau Ju-Kua, Chu-Fan-Chi, Friedrich Hirth and W. W. Rockhill, ed. and trans. (New York: Paragon, 1966). Chaudhuri, K. N., Trade and Civilization in the Indian Ocean (New Delhi: Munshiram Manoharlal, 1985).
Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization by Parag Khanna
1919 Motor Transport Corps convoy, 2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, 9 dash line, additive manufacturing, Admiral Zheng, affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, borderless world, Boycotts of Israel, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, British Empire, business intelligence, call centre, capital controls, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, data is the new oil, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deglobalization, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, Detroit bankruptcy, diversification, Doha Development Round, edge city, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, energy security, ethereum blockchain, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, Ferguson, Missouri, financial innovation, financial repression, forward guidance, global supply chain, global value chain, global village, Google Earth, Hernando de Soto, high net worth, Hyperloop, ice-free Arctic, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, informal economy, Infrastructure as a Service, interest rate swap, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, John von Neumann, Julian Assange, Just-in-time delivery, Kevin Kelly, Khyber Pass, Kibera, Kickstarter, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, LNG terminal, low cost carrier, manufacturing employment, mass affluent, megacity, Mercator projection, microcredit, mittelstand, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, New Economic Geography, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, openstreetmap, out of africa, Panamax, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, Peter Thiel, Plutocrats, plutocrats, post-oil, post-Panamax, private military company, purchasing power parity, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Scramble for Africa, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, Stuxnet, supply-chain management, sustainable-tourism, TaskRabbit, telepresence, the built environment, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, transaction costs, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, WikiLeaks, young professional, zero day
That year, the nineteen-thousand-ton Yong Sheng sailed from Dalian to Rotterdam in thirty-five days. At present, more than fifty times more cargo traverses the Suez each year than the Arctic, but because temperatures rise faster at the earth’s poles (while water levels rise faster at the equator), the Arctic could become a major reliable shipping route by 2020. Ice-free Arctic shipping features two major corridors: The Northern Sea Route, taken by China’s Yong Sheng, connects the two ends of Eurasia (the Far East and northern Europe) over Russia, through the Bering Strait and past Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula—a full two weeks faster than the Suez Canal route. Meanwhile, the Northwest Passage connects East Asia to North America’s East Coast by passing over Alaska and Canada instead of Russia, shaving ten thousand kilometers off the Panama Canal route.
This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate by Naomi Klein
1960s counterculture, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, big-box store, bilateral investment treaty, British Empire, business climate, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, energy security, energy transition, equal pay for equal work, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, financial deregulation, food miles, Food sovereignty, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, ice-free Arctic, immigration reform, income per capita, Internet Archive, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, market fundamentalism, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, new economy, Nixon shock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open borders, patent troll, planetary scale, post-oil, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Rana Plaza, Ronald Reagan, smart grid, special economic zone, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, structural adjustment programs, Ted Kaczynski, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, wages for housework, walkable city, Washington Consensus, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks
See also: “Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia,” Committee on Stabilization Targets for Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences, 2011, p. 31; Schellnhuber et al., “Turn Down the Heat,” pp. 37–41. TENS OF THOUSANDS: Jean-Marie Robine et al., “Death Toll Exceeded 70,000 in Europe During the Summer of 2003,” Comptes Rendus Biologies 331 (2008): 171-78; CROP LOSSES: “Climate Stabilization Targets,” National Academy of Sciences, pp. 160–63. 19. ICE-FREE ARCTIC: Ibid., pp. 132–36. VEGETATION: Andrew D. Friend et al., “Carbon Residence Time Dominates Uncertainty in Terrestrial Vegetation Responses to Future Climate and Atmospheric CO2,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (2014): 3280; “4 Degree Temperature Rise Will End Vegetation ‘Carbon Sink,’ ” University of Cambridge, press release, December 17, 2013; WEST ANTARCTICA STUDY: E.
The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas
back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Haber-Bosch Process, ice-free Arctic, invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Negawatt, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, planetary scale, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, Stewart Brand, University of East Anglia
., 2009: “Thinning and Volume Loss of the Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Cover: 2003–2008,” Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, C07005. 12. NSIDC, “Arctic Oscillation Brings Record Low January Extent, Unusual Mid-latitude Weather,” February 2, 2011, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/020211.html. 13. M. Wang and J. Overland, 2009: “A Sea Ice Free Summer Arctic Within 30 Years?,” Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L07502. 14. T. Cronin et al., 2010: “Quaternary Sea-ice History in the Arctic Ocean Based on a New Ostracode Sea-ice Proxy,” Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 35–36. 15. V. Petoukhov and V. A. Semenov, 2010: “A Link Between Reduced Barents-Kara Sea Ice and Cold Winter Extremes over Northern Continents,” J.