future of work

147 results back to index


Work in the Future The Automation Revolution-Palgrave MacMillan (2019) by Robert Skidelsky Nan Craig

3D printing, Airbnb, algorithmic trading, Amazon Web Services, anti-work, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, basic income, business cycle, cloud computing, collective bargaining, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, data is the new oil, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, deskilling, disintermediation, Donald Trump, Erik Brynjolfsson, feminist movement, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, gig economy, global supply chain, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, Loebner Prize, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, moral panic, Network effects, new economy, off grid, pattern recognition, post-work, Ronald Coase, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Steve Jobs, strong AI, technoutopianism, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, wealth creators, working poor

Nan Craig is Programme Director at the Centre for Global Studies and researches technology and the future of work. She holds an MSc in Global Politics from the LSE and previously worked for the social enterprise Participle, and as a freelance researcher. She also writes fiction which has been published by the New Scientist, Vice and Magma. Richard Donkin is an author and commentator on work and management. A former columnist and writer at the Financial Times, he is the author of two books, The History of Work and The Future of Work, both published by Palgrave Macmillan. He is a visiting fellow at Cass Business School. Carl Benedikt Frey is Oxford Martin Citi Fellow at University of Oxford where he directs the programme on the Future of Work at the Oxford Martin School. He is author of The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor and Power in the Age of Automation.

A final implication is the uncertainty that these recent changes introduce into any attempt to think about the future of work. An earlier speaker mentioned the importance of humility, and I think that is a very important mindset to adopt. One of the benefits of the ALM hypothesis was that it had an attractive conceptual clarity to it: machines could perform ‘routine’ tasks but not ‘non-routine’ tasks. That clarity no longer exists. This means that the future of machine capabilities and, in turn, the future of work, is far more ambiguous than many economists might have imagined 10 or 15 years ago. 132 D. Susskind As noted at the outset, this talk draws explicitly on existing writing and research, including material that I developed with my co-author, Richard Susskind. For example, see the following references. References Susskind, D. (2017, November). 3 Myths about the Future of Work (and Why They’re Not True), A TED Talk Delivered in London, November 2017.

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Contents 1 Introduction  1 Robert Skidelsky and Nan Craig 2 The Future of Work  9 Robert Skidelsky Part I Work in the Past  23 3 Patterns and Types of Work in the Past: Part 1  25 Richard Donkin 4 Patterns and Types of Work in the Past: Part 2  33 Richard Sennett 5 Patterns and Types of Work in the Past: Wageworker and Housewife from a Global Perspective: Birth, Variations and Limits of the Modern Couple 37 Andrea Komlosy v vi Contents Part II Attitudes to Work  51 6 Attitudes to Work and the Future of Work: The View from Economics 53 David A. Spencer 7 Attitudes to Work 65 Pierre-Michel Menger 8 Work as an Obligation 73 Nan Craig Part III Attitudes to Technology  81 9 Attitudes to Technology: Part 1  83 James Bessen 10 Attitudes to Technology: Part 2  89 Carl Benedikt Frey Part IV Possibilities and Limitations for AI: What Can’t Machines Do?  


pages: 246 words: 68,392

Gigged: The End of the Job and the Future of Work by Sarah Kessler

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, business cycle, call centre, cognitive dissonance, collective bargaining, crowdsourcing, David Attenborough, Donald Trump, East Village, Elon Musk, financial independence, future of work, game design, gig economy, income inequality, information asymmetry, Jeff Bezos, job automation, law of one price, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market clearing, minimum wage unemployment, new economy, payday loans, post-work, profit maximization, QR code, race to the bottom, ride hailing / ride sharing, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, TaskRabbit, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, working-age population, Works Progress Administration, Y Combinator

Two years after Harris and Krueger proposed a third category of workers in the United States, the idea had largely faded from discussions about the future of work. Two years after Handy circulated a draft of the New York state bill, it still had not made it to the legislative docket. Other attempts at starting portable benefits programs had proven just as slow. Senator Warner’s proposed $20 million fund for portable benefits pilot programs hadn’t yet made it out of committee. A small $100,000 grant program for experiments with portable retirement benefits savings plans introduced by the Department of Labor38 had given awards to three projects, but only one was even in the prototype stage of its exploration (the other two used the grants to conduct research on the barriers that low-wage workers faced in saving for retirement). On panels about the future of work, nearly everyone could agree that the current social safety net and worker classification systems were no longer adequate.

Freelancers Union and Upwork Release New Study Revealing Insights into the Almost 54 Million People Freelancing in America. October 1, 2015. https://www.upwork.com/press/2015/10/01/freelancers-union-and-upwork-release-new-study-revealing-insights-into-the-almost-54-million-people-freelancing-in-america/. 5   Hanrahan, Disin. We Must Protect the On-Demand Economy to Protect the Future of Work. Wired. November 9, 2015. http://www.wired.com/2015/11/we-must-protect-the-on-demand-economy-to-protect-the-future-of-work/. 6   Wheeler, Brian. Gig Economy Workers “Like the Flexibility.” BBC. October 5, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41490172. 7   Working Mothers Issue Brief. Women’s Bureau US Department of Labor. June 2016. https://www.dol.gov/wb/resources/WB_WorkingMothers_508_FinalJune13.pdf. 8   Hochschild, Arlie, and Anne Machung.

July 15, 2015. https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-department-releases-guidance-on-classification-of-workers-1436954401. 26   Kreider, Benjamin. Risk Shift and the Gig Economy. Economic Policy Institute’s Working Economic Blog. August 4, 2015. http://www.epi.org/blog/risk-shift-and-the-gig-economy/. 27   Mishel, Lawrence. Uber Is Not the Future of Work. The Atlantic. November 16, 2015. https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/11/uber-is-not-the-future-of-work/415905/. 28   The American Presidency Project. 706—Remarks at a White House Summit on Worker Voice Question-and-Answer Session. October 7, 2015. 29   Perez, Tom. Innovation and the Contingent Workforce. Department of Labor Blog. January 25, 2016. 30   Borzi, Phyllis. Keynote Address at the Retirement Security in the On-Demand Economy.


pages: 419 words: 109,241

A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond by Daniel Susskind

3D printing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, blue-collar work, British Empire, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cloud computing, computer age, computer vision, computerized trading, creative destruction, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, drone strike, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, financial innovation, future of work, gig economy, Gini coefficient, Google Glasses, Gödel, Escher, Bach, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacques de Vaucanson, James Hargreaves, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, Metcalfe’s law, natural language processing, Network effects, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, pink-collar, precariat, purchasing power parity, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social intelligence, software is eating the world, sovereign wealth fund, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, strong AI, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, Travis Kalanick, Turing test, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, upwardly mobile, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, wealth creators, working poor, working-age population, Y Combinator

But I will also seek to go well beyond the narrow intellectual terrain inhabited by most economists working in this field. The future of work raises exciting and troubling questions that often have little to do with economics: questions about the nature of intelligence, about inequality and why it matters, about the political power of large technology companies, about what it means to live a meaningful life, about how we might live together in a world that looks very different from the one in which we have grown up. In my view, any story about the future of work that fails to engage with these questions as well is incomplete. NOT A BIG BANG, BUT A GRADUAL WITHERING An important starting point for thinking about the future of work is the fact that, in the past, many others have worried in similar ways about what lies ahead—and been very wrong.

There, buoyed by technologically inclined colleagues, I started to think more carefully about the future of work and whether the government might have to help in some way. But when I turned for help to the economics I had learned as an undergraduate, it was far less insightful than I had hoped. Many economists, as a matter of principle, want to anchor the stories they tell in past evidence alone. As one eminent economist put it, “Although we all enjoy science fiction, history books are usually a safer guide to the future.”16 I was not convinced by this sort of view. What was unfolding in the economy before me looked radically different from experiences of what had come before. I found this very disconcerting. And so, I left my role in British government and, after time spent studying in America, returned to academia to explore various questions about the future of work. I completed a doctorate in economics, challenging the way that economists had traditionally thought about technology and work, and tried to devise a new way to think about what was happening in the labor market.

AN OPTIMISTIC WAY OF THINKING The ALM hypothesis is important not only because of its success in explaining the economic peculiarities of the recent past—the hollowing out of the labor market and the harm caused to workers caught in the middle—but also because it explains the optimism that many forecasters feel about technology and the future. The old “canonical model” of technological change also suggested an optimistic view of the future of work, but for a wildly unrealistic reason: in that model, as we saw, technology always complements workers (albeit some more than others). Today, few people would make an argument like that. Instead, those who are optimistic about the future of work build a case that looks more like the task-biased story of the ALM hypothesis. They argue that new technologies do substitute for workers, but not at everything, and that machines tend to increase the demand for human beings to perform tasks that cannot be automated. Autor himself captured this case for feeling optimistic in a pithy line: “tasks that cannot be substituted by automation are generally complemented by it.”32 Arguments like this rely upon the assumption that there are some tasks that machines simply cannot do, and therefore there is a firm limit to the harmful substituting force.


pages: 236 words: 67,953

Brave New World of Work by Ulrich Beck

affirmative action, anti-globalists, Asian financial crisis, basic income, Berlin Wall, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, full employment, future of work, Gunnar Myrdal, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, job automation, knowledge worker, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, low skilled workers, McJob, means of production, mini-job, post-work, postnationalism / post nation state, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, rising living standards, Silicon Valley, working poor, working-age population, zero-sum game

(eds), Der unscharfe Ort der Politik, Opladen 1999. 17 Mary Kaldor, ‘Reconceptualizing Organized Violence’, in Daniele Archibugi, David Held and Martin Köhler (eds), Reimagining Political Community, Cambridge 1998, pp. 91–110. 18 James N. Rosenau, ‘Governance and Democracy in a Globalizing World’, in Archibugi et al. (eds), Reimagining Political Community, p. 28. 4 The Future of Work and Its Scenarios An Interim Balance-Sheet The debate on the future of work resembles a labyrinth. Adapting an idea of Bertolt Brecht's, we might say: there are as many scenarios and questions as there are authors. So how can the future of work in the second modernity be analysed in a systematic manner? To bring a certain clarity into this bustling international debate, it makes sense to draw a fundamental distinction between the framework of scenario-building and the challenges of the second modernity. Most of the scenarios revolve around the question of Yes or No, end or recovery of full employment, hopes and worries.

Table of Contents Title page Copyright page 1: The Brazilianization of the West: Two Scenarios, One Introduction The political economy of insecurity The right to breaks in lifetime economic activity A method with risks Notes 2: The Antithesis to the Work Society The Greek polis, or unfreedom through work Modern work-democracy, or freedom through work The future of work and political action Notes 3: The Transition from the First to the Second Modernity: Five Challenges What is meant by ‘reflexive modernization’? Globalization, or the ‘despatialization of the social’ When the frontiers blur: beyond war and peace? Notes 4: The Future of Work and Its Scenarios: An Interim Balance-Sheet Scenario 1: from the work society to the knowledge society Scenario 2: capitalism without work Scenario 3: the world market – the neoliberal jobs miracle Scenario 4: the fixed location of work – a globalization risk Scenario 5: sustainable work – the ecological economic miracle Scenario 6: global apartheid Scenario 7: the self-employed – the freedom of insecurity Scenario 8: individualization of work – disintegration of society Scenario 9: the multi-activity society Scenario 10: the free-time society A summary A critique of the future work scenarios Notes 5: The Risk Regime: How the Work Society is Becoming Risk Society The Fordist regime The risk regime Dimensions of the risk regime: globalization, ecologization, digitalization, individualization and politicization of work Multi-employment and the open organization of work Flexibilization of working time: less money, but more control Eyes-closed politics and criminalization Justice deficits of the caring society Summary Notes 6: A Thousand Worlds of Insecure Work: Europe's Future Glimpsed in Brazil Farewell to the Western universalism of the work society The future of informality ‘Being your own boss’ in a global world of opaque dependence Beyond the certainties of the work society On the cynicism of statistics: more hopeless, less jobless The ascription of unemployment and exclusion Time poverty, have-nots and the civil society revolution Notes 7: The Great Example?

It rests upon the insight that only people with a home and a secure job, and thus a material stake in the future, are or will become citizens who make democracy their own and breathe real life into it. The simple truth is that without material security there can be no political freedom – hence no democracy, but rather a threat to everyone from new and old totalitarian regimes and ideologies. The future of work and political action Quite clearly the work society is reaching its technological and ecological limits. This reintroduces a paradox that was once decisive for the development of the work society: on the one hand, work is the centre of society around which everything and everyone revolve and take their bearings; on the other hand, everything is done to eliminate as much work as possible. Productivity, to be worthy of the name, means the removal of more and more human labour, yet this sets off and establishes a dynamic in which the vita activa, if not yet superfluous, loses its central meaning.


pages: 343 words: 91,080

Uberland: How Algorithms Are Rewriting the Rules of Work by Alex Rosenblat

"side hustle", Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, big-box store, call centre, cashless society, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, disruptive innovation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Google Chrome, income inequality, information asymmetry, Jaron Lanier, job automation, job satisfaction, Lyft, marginal employment, Mark Zuckerberg, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, performance metric, Peter Thiel, price discrimination, Ralph Waldo Emerson, regulatory arbitrage, ride hailing / ride sharing, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, social software, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, strikebreaker, TaskRabbit, Tim Cook: Apple, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, urban planning, Wolfgang Streeck, Zipcar

Speaking with them didn’t change my findings, but it did inform my sense of their logic and frameworks and made me cognizant of gaps or limits in my own thinking or approach. Occasionally, I’ve run into senior Uber and Lyft employees at conferences and at hosted meetings that address the future of work. When we’ve sat down to chat, we’ve sifted through the details and debated the far-reaching implications of the rise of ridehail work. Meetings such as these have made it clear that there are unresolved tensions in how we understand the future of work: some thinkers study macroeconomic trends, others focus on the law, and some, like me, emphasize the social and cultural dynamics at stake. When I was visiting San Francisco in 2016, I arranged a meeting with a senior Uber employee, one of a handful of senior employees I would meet over the years.

Governor Cuomo’s signature on the bill to legalize Uber and Lyft symbolizes the pathways these companies blazed for the future of work, yet these platforms have their local detractors. Initially, Westchester County, adjacent to New York City, considered opting out. In a response that is typical of the Uber political playbook, Safraz Maredia, an Uber general manager from the tristate area, penned an op-ed titled “Westchester Would Send Anti-business Message by Opting Out from Ride-Hailing.”43 Politicizing consumers with messages that support innovation, business, or employment opportunities is a classic Uber move. As we saw earlier, anything that is an obstacle to Uber (such as regulations designed to govern it like a taxi business) is positioned by sharing-economy and Uber proponents as an obstacle to innovation, opportunity, and the future of work. It is indisputable that companies like Uber provide valuable services to consumers, and as a result regulators in particular may hesitate to block “innovation” when it comes to such a popular service.

Former taxi drivers, chauffeurs, and truck drivers are part of the Uber workforce, but others have no primary occupational identity as drivers, even as they drive for both Uber and Lyft. Their stories are all too often tales of folks on the margins, of workers in transition, of people who are part of a new wave of social progress that we are still trying to comprehend. Uber drivers frequently make the headlines as part of larger societal discussions about the future of work, and as part of a growing nervousness that technological advancement threatens to automate all of us out of jobs. But beyond this simplistic narrative, I’ve found that drivers are barely treated as workers at all. Given that Uber treats its workers as “consumers” of “algorithmic technology,” and promotes them as self-employed entrepreneurs, a thorny, uncharted, and uncomfortable question must be answered: If you use an app to go to work, should society consider you a consumer, an entrepreneur, or a worker?


pages: 361 words: 76,849

The Year Without Pants: Wordpress.com and the Future of Work by Scott Berkun

barriers to entry, blue-collar work, Broken windows theory, en.wikipedia.org, Firefox, future of work, Google Hangouts, Jane Jacobs, job satisfaction, Lean Startup, lone genius, Mark Zuckerberg, minimum viable product, post-work, remote working, Results Only Work Environment, Richard Stallman, Seaside, Florida, side project, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the map is not the territory, Tony Hsieh, trade route, zero-sum game

Table of Contents Praise for The Year Without Pants Title Page Copyright What You Need to Know Chapter 1: The Hotel Electra Chapter 2: The First Day Notes Chapter 3: Tickets for Caturday Notes Chapter 4: Culture Always Wins Notes Chapter 5: Your Meetings Will Be Typed Notes Chapter 6: The Bazaar at the Cathedral Notes Chapter 7: The Big Talk Notes Chapter 8: The Future of Work, Part 1 Results Trump Traditions Creatives versus Supporters Hire Self-Sufficient, Passionate People Notes Chapter 9: Working the Team Chapter 10: How to Start a Fire Notes Chapter 11: Real Artists Ship Notes Chapter 12: Athens Lost and Found Notes Chapter 13: Double Down Notes Chapter 14: There Can Be Only One Notes Chapter 15: The Future of Work, Part 2 Life Without E-Mail Notes Chapter 16: Innovation and Friction Notes Chapter 17: The Intense Debate Notes Chapter 18: Follow the Sun Chapter 19: The Rise of Jetpack Notes Chapter 20: Show Me the Money Notes Chapter 21: Portland and the Collective Notes Chapter 22: The Bureau of Socialization Chapter 23: Exit Through Hawaii Chapter 24: The Future of Work, Part 3 Notes Epilogue: Where Are They Now?

Most of what I remember are the notable oohs and aahs as we did our demonstration, sounds I hadn't heard about software I'd worked on with a team of people for far too long. Notes 1 A good overview of the history of fire teams is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fireteam. 2 David McCullough, The Great Bridge (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1983), 381. Chapter 8 The Future of Work, Part 1 Books about the future of work make the same mistake: they fail to look back at the history of work or, more precisely, the history of books about the future of work and how wrong they were. Few visions of the future come true, as we're very bad at predicting much of anything. Can you guess what sentence will come next? Did you guess this one would have a flaming zombie banana in it, a fruit so horrific it crawls the earth forever, eating banana brains? If we can't guess the next sentence in a book, there's little hope of guessing the future.

His insights will make you laugh, think, and ask all the right questions about your own company's culture.” —Gina Trapani, founding editor, Lifehacker “The future of work is distributed. Automattic wrote the script. Time for rest of us to read it.” —Om Malik, founder, GigaOM “Some say the world of work is changing, but they're wrong. The world has already changed! Read The Year Without Pants to catch up.” —Chris Guillebeau, author, New York Times bestseller The $100 Startup “You'll be surprised, shocked, delighted, thrilled, and inspired by how WordPress.com gets work done. I was!” —Joe Belfiore, corporate vice president, Microsoft “Most talk of the future of work is just speculation, but Berkun has actually worked there. The Year Without Pants is a brilliant, honest, and funny insider's story of life at a great company.”


pages: 491 words: 77,650

Humans as a Service: The Promise and Perils of Work in the Gig Economy by Jeremias Prassl

3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrei Shleifer, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, call centre, cashless society, Clayton Christensen, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Erik Brynjolfsson, full employment, future of work, George Akerlof, gig economy, global supply chain, hiring and firing, income inequality, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kickstarter, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, market friction, means of production, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, pattern recognition, platform as a service, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, regulatory arbitrage, remote working, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Rosa Parks, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Simon Singh, software as a service, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, transaction costs, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, two tier labour market, two-sided market, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, union organizing, working-age population

Sara Horowith, founder and executive director of Freelancers Union, com- menting on an Upwork press release about 2014 US freelancing figures: Upwork, ‘53 million Americans now freelance, new study finds’, http://www. upwork.com/press/2014/09/03/53-million-americans-now-freelance-new- study-finds-2/, archived at https://perma.cc/P3Q4-WJH4 13. Frank Kalman, ‘Yes, the gig economy is great—but it isn’t the future of work’, Talent Economy (18 November 2016), https://medium.com/talent-economy/ yes-the-gig-economy-is-great-but-it-isnt-the-future-of-work-a5629f2b9e2d, archived at https://perma.cc/Q8MD-4A8C 14. Ibid. 15. For some of the most promising work at the time of writing, see McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), Independent Work: Choice, Necessity, and the Gig Economy (McKinsey & Co. 2016), 36; Brhmie Balaram, Josie Warden, and Fabian Wallace- Stephens, Good Gigs: A Fairer Future for the UK’s Gig Economy (RSA 2017), 18. 16.

We then turn to linguistic matters, exploring how, despite their focus on commercial labour intermediation, platforms were originally cast in a dif- ferent light, operating under the mantle of a ‘sharing economy’. Superficial * * * 8 Introduction as this may seem, language matters. This is the central theme of Chapter 2, ‘Doublespeak’. Discussions of the gig economy to date have been characterized by a clash of narratives—‘simple stories [that] distort multifaceted realities’, in the words of Frank Pasquale:16 platforms either promise to revolutionize the future of work to the benefit of all or represent a return to medieval feudalism. Each of these narratives is important in its own right—but, as we quickly discover, much more is at stake. With regulators around the world trying to work out how the gig economy should fit into existing legal structures, nar- ratives play a powerful role in shaping regulation. At its crudest, this means that proponents portray the gig economy as a radically new and ‘disruptive’ industry, which governments would do well to leave alone.

The innovation narrative is similarly multifaceted, as we discover in Chapter 4. There is much that is innovative about the gig economy’s reliance on modern technology—but in so far as work is concerned, the business model is ancient. This is the ‘Innovation Paradox’. Many platforms’ business models are built around large workforces competing over relatively low- skilled tasks, controlled by powerful intermediaries. The future of work, it turns out, is a blast from the past. From eighteenth-century outwork to nineteenth-century dock labour, there is ample historical precedent for this organization of work—and the resulting working conditions. And it is not only in history that we can find similar models: technology apart, gig work fits neatly into a broader trend of fissurization, from temporary agency work to supply-chain outsourcing, which has been growing in our labour markets for several decades.


pages: 375 words: 88,306

The Sharing Economy: The End of Employment and the Rise of Crowd-Based Capitalism by Arun Sundararajan

additive manufacturing, Airbnb, AltaVista, Amazon Mechanical Turk, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, call centre, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, distributed ledger, employer provided health coverage, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, future of work, George Akerlof, gig economy, housing crisis, Howard Rheingold, information asymmetry, Internet of things, inventory management, invisible hand, job automation, job-hopping, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kula ring, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, megacity, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, moral panic, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, peer-to-peer model, peer-to-peer rental, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, recommendation engine, regulatory arbitrage, rent control, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Ross Ulbricht, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart contracts, Snapchat, social software, supply-chain management, TaskRabbit, The Nature of the Firm, total factor productivity, transaction costs, transportation-network company, two-sided market, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, Zipcar

Table of Contents Title page Copyright page Dedication Author’s Note and Acknowledgments Introduction I Cause1 The Sharing Economy, Market Economies, and Gift Economies 2 Laying the Tracks: Digital and Socioeconomic Foundations 3 Platforms: Under the Hood 4 Blockchain Economies: The Crowd as the Market Maker II Effect5 The Economic Impacts of Crowd-Based Capitalism 6 The Shifting Landscape of Regulation and Consumer Protection 7 The Future of Work: Challenges and Controversies 8 The Future of Work: What Needs to Be Done 9 Concluding Thoughts Index List of Tables Table 3.1 Platforms: hierarchies, markets, or hybrids? Table 8.1 Definitions of “employee” under selected statutes Table 8.2 Estimated percentage of workers who want a different type of employment, 2005 Table 8.3 Factors in assessing a platform’s support of entrepreneurship List of Illustrations Figure 0.1 Paid US workforce, 1900–1960.

Additionally, at an October 2015 labor conference hosted by the White House, President Barack Obama discussed ways of protecting the new workforce in an hour-long town hall discussion he moderated with Michelle Miller, the co-founder of coworker.org, after highlighting the opportunities created by the future of work heralded by platforms like Uber, Lyft, and TaskRabbit in an earlier keynote speech. But what exactly do these opportunities look like? On one side of the argument, there are the Liss-Riordans of the world who may consider the future of work—at least as it is currently unfolding in the sharing economy—as a near-certain race to the bottom. Among the most vocal proponents of this view is the former labor secretary and University of California professor Robert Reich. Asserting that a better name for the sharing economy would be the “share-the-scraps economy,” Reich posits: “Customers and workers are matched online.

Or will it represent the culmination of the end of broad-based and high standards of living that the United States witnessed in the 1950s and 1960s—a disparaging race to the bottom that leaves workers around the world working more hours for less money and with minimal job security and benefits? Put another way, will the future of work be populated by successful microentrepreneurs, like David with his fleet of cars on Turo, ThreeBirdNest’s Alicia Shaffer on Etsy, and Don Dennis running his business from the island of Gigha? Or will the future be populated by disenfranchised workers who scurry between platforms as they hunt for their next wedge of piecework? In this chapter, I highlight the labor issues central to shaping this future of work. First, I examine the current debate on the employment status of sharing economy workers and proposed expansions to the US worker categorization model. Next, I ask, how do we ensure that a social safety net is available to people whose chosen form of work is something other than full-time employment?


pages: 346 words: 97,330

Ghost Work: How to Stop Silicon Valley From Building a New Global Underclass by Mary L. Gray, Siddharth Suri

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Amazon Mechanical Turk, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, big-box store, bitcoin, blue-collar work, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collective bargaining, computer vision, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, data is the new oil, deindustrialization, deskilling, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, employer provided health coverage, en.wikipedia.org, equal pay for equal work, Erik Brynjolfsson, financial independence, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, future of work, gig economy, glass ceiling, global supply chain, hiring and firing, ImageNet competition, industrial robot, informal economy, information asymmetry, Jeff Bezos, job automation, knowledge economy, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, market friction, Mars Rover, natural language processing, new economy, passive income, pattern recognition, post-materialism, post-work, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Second Machine Age, sentiment analysis, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, software as a service, speech recognition, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, two-sided market, union organizing, universal basic income, Vilfredo Pareto, women in the workforce, Works Progress Administration, Y Combinator

As more people turn to ghost work—or have their formal employment turned into ghost work—we have a chance to learn from labor history and people’s experiences of ghost work today to tackle its technical and social malfunctions. There is still time to bring jobs out of the shadow of AI and make them equitable and dignified employment of which all parties involved will feel proud. Drawing on what we have learned from research participants and studying the dynamics of on-demand labor markets, we have a few technical and social fixes to suggest for moving the future of work forward. What We Can Do Next to Update Jobs for the Future of Work Imagine what society could achieve if businesses, consumers, governments, and citizens fully recognized the value of human creativity and the pooled, collective effort of so many humans contributing to on-demand services. What potential benefits could flow from projects channeled, at least in part, through APIs and software if we invested in them as a new category of employment, the most likely mode of employment through at least our grandchildren’s lives?

The Fourth Industrial Revolution. New York: Penguin, 2017. Sharma, Dinesh C. The Outsourcer: The Story of India’s IT Revolution. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2015. Shestakofsky, Benjamin. “Working Algorithms: Software Automation and the Future of Work.” Work and Occupations, August 28, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1177/0730888417726119. Shetterly, Margot Lee. Hidden Figures: The American Dream and the Untold Story of the Black Women Mathematicians Who Helped Win the Space Race. Media tie-in edition. New York: William Morrow, 2016. Silberman, M. Six. “Human-Centered Computing and the Future of Work: Lessons from Mechanical Turk and Turkopticon, 2008–2015.” PhD diss., University of California, Irvine, 2015. Silberman, M. Six, and Lilly Irani. “Operating an Employer Reputation System: Lessons from Turkopticon, 2008–2015.”

Similarly, scientists and researchers using modern machine learning systems depend on training data that’s clear and error-free. They need an automated method to get help generating and cleaning up that data, and they rely on many people around the world to do it. On-demand labor platforms offer today’s online businesses a combination of human labor and AI, creating a massive, hidden pool of people available for ghost work. Delivering services and jobs on demand could be an integral part of the future of work. It could also have unintended, potentially disastrous consequences if not designed and managed with care and attention to how it is restructuring the experience and meaning that people attach to their day jobs. Ghost Work and the Future of Employment The dismantling of employment is a deep, fundamental transformation of the nature of work. Traditional full-time employment is no longer the rule in the United States.


pages: 309 words: 81,975

Brave New Work: Are You Ready to Reinvent Your Organization? by Aaron Dignan

"side hustle", activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, butterfly effect, cashless society, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Heinemeier Hansson, deliberate practice, DevOps, disruptive innovation, don't be evil, Elon Musk, endowment effect, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, gender pay gap, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, gig economy, Google X / Alphabet X, hiring and firing, hive mind, income inequality, information asymmetry, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, loose coupling, loss aversion, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, minimum viable product, new economy, Paul Graham, race to the bottom, remote working, Richard Thaler, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, smart contracts, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, software is eating the world, source of truth, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, the High Line, too big to fail, Toyota Production System, uber lyft, universal basic income, Y Combinator, zero-sum game

Version_2 For Huxley May you inherit a world in which everyone finds fulfillment and prosperity at work. And if you don’t, may you help build one. Contents Title Page Copyright Dedication Epigraphs Part One THE FUTURE OF WORK Part Two THE OPERATING SYSTEM Part Three THE CHANGE Epilogue WHAT DREAMS MAY COME Acknowledgments Appendix Notes Index About the Author People who like this sort of thing will find this the sort of thing they like. —Artemus Ward Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. —André Gide Part One THE FUTURE OF WORK The beginning is the most important part of the work. —Plato We were packed into the back of a black car, on our way to a celebratory dinner. The energy was electric.

We are addicted to the idea that the world can be predicted and controlled—that our stoplights are the only way to keep things in check. But when you view the world that way, today’s uncertainty and volatility become triggers for retreating to what has worked in the past. We just need to hire more capable leaders. We just need to squeeze out a little more efficiency and growth. We just need to reorganize. . . . But we know better. The real barrier to progress in the twenty-first century is us. THE FUTURE OF WORK What if your organization could run itself? What if your corporation, your startup, your restaurant, your school, or your church were able to get better every day, without you having to move mountains to make it so? What if you could stop giving orders? Stop checking in to see how things are going? Stop obsessing over your budget, your plan, your next quarter? This is not only possible; it is already happening inside organizations around the world.

And I’ll share stories and lessons from transformation efforts that struggled and those that went well beyond our expectations. Finally, we’ll take a moment to imagine a world in which we get this right, and organizations everywhere create fulfillment and abundance. The foundations of a new economy are slowly forming, and I’ll show you where to look to see them taking shape. In the end, you’ll have everything you need to step confidently into the future of work. HOW I GOT HERE In 2007 I was part of the founding team of a company that created digital strategies for some of the biggest brands in the world. A few years later I became the CEO. While I thought of myself as progressive, in truth I managed the company in a somewhat traditional way. I weighed in on all the hiring and firing decisions. I gave annual performance reviews and set compensation.


pages: 436 words: 98,538

The Upside of Inequality by Edward Conard

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, assortative mating, bank run, Berlin Wall, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, corporate governance, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, future of work, Gini coefficient, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, informal economy, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the telephone, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, liquidity trap, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, offshore financial centre, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, survivorship bias, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, total factor productivity, twin studies, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, University of East Anglia, upwardly mobile, War on Poverty, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population, zero-sum game

Schloetzer et al., “Departing CEO Age and Tenure.” 29. Lawrence Summers, “The Future of Work in the Age of the Machine: A Hamilton Project Policy Forum,” National Press Club, February 19, 2015, http://www.hamiltonproject.org/events/the_future_of_work_in_the_age_of_the_machine. Joseph E. Stiglitz, “The Origins of Inequality, and Policies to Contain It,” National Tax Journal 68 (2015): 425–48, https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/download/papers/2015%20Origins%20of%20Inequality.pdf. Robert Reich, Saving Capitalism: For the Many, Not the Few (New York: Knopf, 2015). Paul Krugman, “Challenging the Oligarchy,” New York Review of Books, December 17, 2015. 30. Lawrence Summers, “The Future of Work in the Age of the Machine.” 31. “ExxonMobil,” Wikipedia, retrieved September 30, 2015, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ExxonMobil. 32.

Chris Gaither and Dawn Chmielewski, “Fears of Dot-Com Crash, Version 2.0,” Los Angeles Times, July 16, 2006, http://articles.latimes.com/2006/jul/16/business/fi-overheat16. 15. Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009). 16. Lawrence Summers, “The Future of Work in the Age of the Machine: A Hamilton Project Policy Forum,” National Press Club, February 19, 2015, http://www.hamiltonproject.org/events/the_future_of_work_in_the_age_of_the_machine. 17. Robert McIntyre, Richard Phillips, and Phineas Baxandall, “Offshore Shell Games 2015: The Use of Offshore Tax Havens by Fortune 500 Companies,” Citizens for Tax Justice, 2015, http://ctj.org/pdf/offshoreshell2015.pdf. 18. Richard Foster and Sarah Kaplan, Creative Destruction: Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market—and How to Successfully Transform Them (New York: Crown, 2001), 13.

Norton, 2014), 202. 2. Christopher Matthews, “How Silicon Valley Is Hollowing Out the Economy (and Stealing from You to Boot),” Time, May 7, 2013, http://business.time.com/2013/05/07/how-silicon-valley-is-hollowing-out-the-economy-and-stealing-from-you-while-theyre-at-it. 3. Erik Brynjolfsson, “The Future of Work in the Age of the Machine: A Hamilton Project Policy Forum,” National Press Club, Washington, DC, February 19, 2015, http://www.hamiltonproject.org/assets/legacy/files/download_and_links/2015_02_24_THP_Future_of_Work_in_Machine_Age_tran script_unedited.pdf. 4. Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2013). 5. Bradford Delong, “Over at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth: Piketty Day Here at Berkeley: The Honest Broker for the Week of April 26 2014,” Grasping Reality with the Invisible Hand, April 23, 2014, http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2014/04/piketty-day-here-at-berkeley-the-honest-broker-for-the-week-of-april-26-2014.html. 6.


pages: 523 words: 61,179

Human + Machine: Reimagining Work in the Age of AI by Paul R. Daugherty, H. James Wilson

3D printing, AI winter, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, blockchain, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, cloud computing, computer vision, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, digital twin, disintermediation, Douglas Hofstadter, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, friendly AI, future of work, industrial robot, Internet of things, inventory management, iterative process, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, knowledge worker, Lyft, natural language processing, personalized medicine, precision agriculture, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Rodney Brooks, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sensor fusion, sentiment analysis, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, software as a service, speech recognition, telepresence, telepresence robot, text mining, the scientific method, uber lyft

” — DAVID KENNY, Senior Vice President, IBM Watson and IBM Cloud “Human + Machine creates the framework for forward-thinking leaders to develop opportunities within their operating system that optimize both human and machine intelligence; a deeply thought-provoking analysis of how to introduce AI to enhance internal operations and develop a technology-enabled, long-term growth strategy.” — AARON LEVIE, CEO, Box “AI offers great promise to benefit people and society but also presents new challenges and risks. In Human + Machine, Daugherty and Wilson have published a crucial perspective on the future of work, illuminating the human-machine relationship in a way that will help us all better understand, discuss, and shape our AI future.” — TERAH LYONS, Founding Executive Director, the Partnership on AI; former advisor, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy “Those of us not trained as technologists must be curious, ongoing learners—then we must apply our learning to job creation in an AI world.

Chapter 7 takes a hard look at managerial challenges introduced by AI that require different, new responses from management and leadership. A huge question here is, what steps must management take to facilitate reimagining processes? Specifically, management must support five crucial activities, including an emphasis on trial-and-error experimentation, building a data supply chain for AI, and others. Finally, we explore the future of work itself in chapter 8. Specifically, as human-machine collaborations become increasingly prevalent, companies will need to hire for and develop eight new “fusion skills”: intelligent interrogation (knowing how best to ask an AI agent questions, across levels of abstraction, to get the insights you need), bot-based empowerment (collaborating with intelligent agents to punch above your weight at work), reciprocal apprenticing (teaching AI agents new skills while also undergoing on-the-job training to work well within AI-enhanced processes), holistic melding (developing mental models of AI agents that improve collaborative outcomes), rehumanizing time (reimagining business processes to amplify the time available for distinctly human tasks and learning), responsible normalizing (shaping the purpose and perception of human-machine collaborations as it relates to individuals, businesses, and society), judgment integration (choosing a course of action amid machine uncertainty), and relentless reimagining (thinking of novel ways to overhaul work, processes, and business models to obtain exponential increases in improvement).

For instance, Philips smart lighting uses AI to predict when bulbs will lose their efficiency, which ties into the company’s recycling and replacement service. In short, sensor data and AI are now allowing the company to sell “light as a service” instead of just bulbs.2 Heady times, for sure. But as AI enters the front office, new questions about best practices arise. How do AI and new modes of human-machine interaction change the way companies deliver goods and services, and how are these interactions shaping the future of work? How do the new user interfaces like Alexa change the relationships between companies’ brands and their customers? What design choices can make or break a natural-language bot? And what happens when logos and mascots—traditional brand ambassadors—gain intelligence? These questions are at the heart of this chapter. Customer-Aware Shops To begin answering those questions, let’s return to the retail floor.


pages: 179 words: 43,441

The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab

3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, clean water, collaborative consumption, commoditize, conceptual framework, continuous integration, crowdsourcing, digital twin, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, global value chain, Google Glasses, income inequality, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of the steam engine, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, life extension, Lyft, mass immigration, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, more computing power than Apollo, mutually assured destruction, Narrative Science, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, personalized medicine, precariat, precision agriculture, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, reshoring, RFID, rising living standards, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, software as a service, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, supercomputer in your pocket, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, The Spirit Level, total factor productivity, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y Combinator, Zipcar

The challenge we face is to come up with new forms of social and employment contracts that suit the changing workforce and the evolving nature of work. We must limit the downside of the human cloud in terms of possible exploitation, while neither curtailing the growth of the labour market nor preventing people from working in the manner they choose. If we are unable to do this, the fourth industrial revolution could lead to the dark side of the future of work, which Lynda Gratton, a professor of management practice at London Business School describes in her book The Shift: The Future of Work is Already Here - increasing levels of fragmentation, isolation and exclusion across societies.29 As I state throughout this book, the choice is ours. It entirely depends on the policy and institutional decisions we make. One has to be aware, however, that a regulatory backlash could happen, thereby reasserting the power of policymakers in the process and straining the adaptive forces of a complex system.

This is particularly the case for the younger generation who often feel that corporate jobs constrain their ability to find meaning and purpose in life. In a world where boundaries are disappearing and aspirations are changing, people want not only work-life balance but also harmonious work-life integration. I am concerned that the future of work will only allow a minority of individuals to achieve such fulfilment. 3.2 Business Beyond the changes in growth patterns, labour markets and the future of work that will naturally influence all organisations, there is evidence that the technologies that underpin the fourth industrial revolution are having a major impact on how businesses are led, organized and resourced. One particular symptom of this phenomenon is that the historical reduction in the average lifespan of a corporation listed on the S&P 500 has dropped from around 60 to approximately 18.31 Another is the shift in the time it takes new entrants to dominate markets and hit significant revenue milestones.

, The New York Times, 7 March 2015 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/opinion/sunday/if-an-algorithm-wrote-this-how-would-you-even-know.html?_r=0 25 Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots, Basic Books, 2015. 26 Daniel Pink, Free Agent Nation – The Future of Working for Yourself, Grand Central Publishing, 2001. 27 Quoted in: Farhad Manjoo, “Uber’s business model could change your work”, The New York Times, 28 January 2015. 28 Quoted in: Sarah O’Connor, “The human cloud: A new world of work”, The Financial Times, 8 October 2015. 29 Lynda Gratton, The Shift: The Future of Work is Already Here, Collins, 2011. 30 R. Buckminster Fuller and E.J. Applewhite, Synergetics: Explorations in the Geometry of Thinking, Macmillan, 1975. 31 Eric Knight, “The Art of Corporate Endurance”, Harvard Business Review, April 2, 2014 https://hbr.org/2014/04/the-art-of-corporate-endurance 32 VentureBeat, “WhatsApp now has 700M users, sending 30B messages per day”, January 6 2015 http://venturebeat.com/2015/01/06/whatsapp-now-has-700m-users-sending-30b-messages-per-day/ 33 Mitek and Zogby Analytics, Millennial Study 2014 , September 2014 https://www.miteksystems.com/sites/default/files/Documents/zogby_final_embargo_14_9_25.pdf 34 Gillian Wong, “Alibaba Tops Singles’ Day Sales Record Despite Slowing China Economy”, The Wall Street Journal, 11 November 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/alibaba-smashes-singles-day-sales-record-1447234536 35 “The Mobile Economy: Sub-Saharan Africa 2014”, GSM Association, 2014.


pages: 207 words: 59,298

The Gig Economy: A Critical Introduction by Jamie Woodcock, Mark Graham

Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, collective bargaining, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, David Graeber, deindustrialization, disintermediation, en.wikipedia.org, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, global value chain, informal economy, information asymmetry, inventory management, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, knowledge economy, Lyft, mass immigration, means of production, Network effects, new economy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, planetary scale, precariat, rent-seeking, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, transaction costs, Travis Kalanick, two-sided market, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, union organizing, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional

We need to vote for them, campaign for them, support them, write to them and hold them to account. The gig economy is the battleground in a set of conflicts being waged that will determine the futures of work. You may think that your own job is safe from some of the changes described in this book, but the processes that define the gig economy could come to transform almost every type of work. The balance sheet thus far is deeply worrying, and should be a cause of concern for workers the world over. And it will continue to be a concern unless we find ways of taking what we already know about how the gig economy works and who it works for, to collectively build a more equitable and fairer future of work. Notes 1. For further information, see http://www.followthethings.com 2. See https://medium.com/@r44d/uber-the-world-s-largest-taxi-company-owns-no-vehicles-facebook-the-world-s-most-popular-media-94a15186d020 3.

Thanks for your endless support to all of us despite all the challenges you have encountered as a precarious worker. And thanks to Kat: for always being a steady source of wisdom, advice and good humour – no matter how difficult a day of work has become. Finally, we would like to thank all of the workers we have spoken to and whose voices we have tried to feature within the book. Ultimately, this is a book about hope for fairer futures of work. As such, we dedicate it to the workers whose stories are not already written. Introduction Everybody is talking about the gig economy. From newscasters to taxi drivers to pizza deliverers to the unemployed, we are all aware of the changes to our jobs, our professions, our economies and our everyday lives wrought by the gig economy. There are now an estimated 1.1 million people in the UK working in the gig economy, delivering food, driving taxis and offering other services – this is as many people as work for the National Health Service (Balaram et al., 2017).

The aim of this chapter is not only to shine a spotlight on the new moments of resistance that gig work is creating, but also to understand that work is a phenomenon that always is shaped by both employers and workers – along with other preconditions that we discussed in chapter 1 like the role of the state and regulation. By examining how workers are resisting, organizing and shaping the gig economy, we can draw out different potential futures of work. However, when the gig economy and platform work was first recognized as a growing phenomenon around ten years ago, many commentators noted that traditional forms of worker representation would no longer be appropriate or adequate to protect these workers. The widespread use by platforms of self-employed independent contractor status not only creates the conditions of low pay and precarious work that we have discussed so far, but it also creates significant barriers to traditional forms of trade unionism.


pages: 237 words: 67,154

Ours to Hack and to Own: The Rise of Platform Cooperativism, a New Vision for the Future of Work and a Fairer Internet by Trebor Scholz, Nathan Schneider

1960s counterculture, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, barriers to entry, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, Build a better mousetrap, Burning Man, capital controls, citizen journalism, collaborative economy, collaborative editing, collective bargaining, commoditize, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Debian, deskilling, disintermediation, distributed ledger, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, future of work, gig economy, Google bus, hiring and firing, income inequality, information asymmetry, Internet of things, Jacob Appelbaum, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, lake wobegon effect, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, minimum viable product, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, openstreetmap, peer-to-peer, post-work, profit maximization, race to the bottom, ride hailing / ride sharing, SETI@home, shareholder value, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, Snapchat, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, transaction costs, Travis Kalanick, Uber for X, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, Zipcar

While we intend to foster something new in the online economy, we do so by turning to something old: the long tradition of cooperative enterprise. The problems of labor abuse and surveillance that have arisen with the “sharing economy,” also, are not entirely new; they have much in common with struggles on nineteenth-century factory floors. By considering the emerging platforms in light of well-hewn cooperative principles and practices, we find an optimistic vision for the future of work and life. Already, this strategy is catching on. Workers, organizers, developers, and social entrepreneurs around the world are experimenting with cooperative platforms and forming conversations about platform cooperativism. This book, therefore, is an effort to serve a movement in the making, to add to the momentum we and our fellow contributors already feel. We each came to platform cooperativism by somewhat separate paths.

Emphasizing community, underutilized resources, and open data, the genuine sharing economy was initially presented as a challenge to corporate power. Just like my Buddhist friends, the pioneers of this economy proposed to split the use of lawn mowers, drills, and cars. But soon, the non-commercial values behind many platforms were rewritten in the boardrooms of Silicon Valley, turning the “sharing economy” into a misnomer. Today, facing various prophecies about sharing and the future of work, we need to remind ourselves that there is no unstoppable evolution leading to the uberization of society; more positive alternatives are possible. In Average Is Over, the economist Tyler Cowen foresees a future in which a tiny “hyper meritocracy” would make millions while the rest of us struggle to survive on anywhere between $5,000 and $10,000 a year. It already works quite well in Mexico, Cowen quips.

Artists like Burak Arikan, Alex Rivera, Stephanie Rothenberg, and Dmytri Kleiner played pioneering roles in alerting the public to these issues. Later, debates became more concerned with “crowd fleecing,” the exploitation of thousands of invisible workers in crowdsourcing systems like Amazon Mechanical Turk or content moderation farms in the Philippines. Over the past few years, the search for concrete alternatives for a better future of work has become more dynamic. The theory of platform cooperativism has two main tenets: communal ownership and democratic governance. It is bringing together 135 years of worker self-management, the roughly 170 years of the cooperative movement, and commons-based peer production with the compensated digital economy. The term “platform” refers to places where we hang out, work, tinker, and generate value after we switch on our phones or computers.


pages: 344 words: 104,077

Superminds: The Surprising Power of People and Computers Thinking Together by Thomas W. Malone

agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Asperger Syndrome, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, bitcoin, blockchain, business process, call centre, clean water, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, drone strike, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, experimental economics, Exxon Valdez, future of work, Galaxy Zoo, gig economy, happiness index / gross national happiness, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, inventory management, invisible hand, Jeff Rulifson, jimmy wales, job automation, John Markoff, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, knowledge worker, longitudinal study, Lyft, Marshall McLuhan, Occupy movement, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, prediction markets, price mechanism, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Coase, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, slashdot, social intelligence, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, technological singularity, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs, Travis Kalanick, Uber for X, uber lyft, Vernor Vinge, Vilfredo Pareto, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!

Nicolas de Condorcet, Essay sur l’Application de l’Analyse à la Probabilité des Décisions Rendue à la Pluralité des Voix (Paris, 1785); Christian List and Robert E. Goodin, “Epistemic Democracy: Generalizing the Condorcet Jury Theorem,” Journal of Political Philosophy 9 (2001): 277–306, doi:10.1111/1467-9760.00128. 2. Thomas W. Malone, The Future of Work: How the New Order of Business Will Shape Your Organization, Your Management Style, and Your Life (Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 2004). 3. Bryan Ford, “Delegative Democracy Revisited,” Bryan Ford’s Blog, November 16, 2014, http://bford.github.io/2014/11/16/deleg.html; Malone, The Future of Work, 65n21. 4. Sven Becker, “Web Platform Makes Professor Most Powerful Pirate,” Spiegel Online, March 2, 2012, http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/liquid-democracy-web-platform-makes-professor-most-powerful-pirate-a-818683.html; Wikipedia, s.v.

As far as we know, Obama didn’t issue any new orders while watching the raid, but in principle, such detailed information from anywhere on the planet makes it possible for the US president as well as senior executives of other large organizations to exercise an unprecedented amount of detailed control over decisions far down in their organizations’ hierarchies. In other words, they can now intervene in low-level decision making in ways they never could have before. On the other hand, as I argued in my 2004 book, The Future of Work, it will probably be even more common for cheap communication to help decentralize decision making in many parts of our economy.4 Here’s why: New information technologies allow much cheaper communication. Cheaper communication means it’s economically feasible for many more people to have much more information than in the past. That, in turn, means that many more people can have enough information to make sensible decisions for themselves instead of just following orders from someone above them in a hierarchy.

These benefits of decentralized decision making aren’t important everywhere. But in our increasingly knowledge-based and innovation-driven economy, the critical factors in business success are often precisely the same as the advantages of decentralized decision making: motivation, creativity, and flexibility. That’s why I think we’re likely to see more and more decentralization of decision making over the coming decades. In the years since The Future of Work was published, many of the things it predicted have become more common: Highly decentralized online groups like Wikipedia and open-source software are much more prominent. Decentralized markets for things like taxi services (Lyft) and hotel services (Airbnb) have captured our national attention. Even our largest corporations—like IBM, Google, and General Motors—have less of the rigid, centralized hierarchies that were common in the corporations of the past (think three-piece suits) and more of the loose, decentralized structures that used to be confined to a few cutting-edge sectors of the economy (think jeans and T-shirts).


pages: 301 words: 89,076

The Globotics Upheaval: Globalisation, Robotics and the Future of Work by Richard Baldwin

agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, AltaVista, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, commoditize, computer vision, Corn Laws, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, declining real wages, deindustrialization, deskilling, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, Downton Abbey, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, facts on the ground, future of journalism, future of work, George Gilder, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, hiring and firing, impulse control, income inequality, industrial robot, intangible asset, Internet of things, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, knowledge worker, laissez-faire capitalism, low skilled workers, Machine translation of "The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak." to Russian and back, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, mass incarceration, Metcalfe’s law, new economy, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, Ponzi scheme, post-industrial society, post-work, profit motive, remote working, reshoring, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, social intelligence, sovereign wealth fund, standardized shipping container, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, TaskRabbit, telepresence, telepresence robot, telerobotics, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, universal basic income

THE GLOBOTICS UPHEAVAL Globalisation, Robotics, and the Future of Work RICHARD BALDWIN CONTENTS Title Page 1. Introduction PART I Historical Transformation, Upheaval, Backlash, and Resolution 2. We’ve Been Here Before: The Great Transformation 3. The Second Great Transformation: From Things to Thoughts PART II The Globotics Transformation 4. The Digitech Impulse Driving Globotics 5. Telemigration and the Globotics Transformation 6. Automation and the Globotics Transformation 7. The Globotics Upheaval 8. New Backlash, New Shelterism 9. Globotics Resolution: A More Human, More Local Future 10. The Future Doesn’t Take Appointments: Preparing for the New Jobs Copyright 1 Introduction Hang gliding is the ultimate thrill sport, but it’s not as dangerous as you might think—thanks to the US Hang Gliding and Paragliding Association (motto: “Pilot safety is no accident”).

And, since—as the old saying goes—things that can’t go on, don’t, they didn’t. The final of the four steps was resolution. Two of the three solutions—communism and New Deal capitalism—are still with us. The third, fascism, was extinguished by the main adherents of the other two. Another lesson from the Great Transformation concerns jobs displacement and job replacement—topics that are at the heart of today’s “future of work” deliberations. Automation and globalization drove a sensational re-orientation of the economy. Taking Britain as an example, the share of workers in industry rose progressively from 19 percent in 1700 to 49 percent in 1870, according to one of the grand masters of economic history, Nicholas Crafts.13 During this period, the nation also shifted from a primarily rural society to one where almost two-thirds of people lived in urban areas.

To adapt to rapidly changing challenges and opportunities, firms are moving away from traditional employer–employee relationships. Increasing reliance on remote workers (especially those who are not traditional, full-time employees) is providing today’s service-sector companies with essential elements of flexibility. “To keep pace with constant change in the digital era,” noted the Accenture Technology Vision 2017 report: “The future of work has already arrived, and digital leaders are fundamentally reinventing their workforces. . . . The resulting on-demand enterprise will be key to the rapid innovation and organizational changes that companies need to transform themselves into truly digital businesses.” There is a lot of business-school jargon packed into those sentences, but you should latch on to the basic point: steady jobs won’t be so steady anymore.


pages: 402 words: 126,835

The Job: The Future of Work in the Modern Era by Ellen Ruppel Shell

3D printing, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, airport security, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, big-box store, blue-collar work, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collective bargaining, computer vision, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, factory automation, follow your passion, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, game design, glass ceiling, hiring and firing, immigration reform, income inequality, industrial robot, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, low skilled workers, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, new economy, Norbert Wiener, obamacare, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, precariat, Ralph Waldo Emerson, risk tolerance, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, The Chicago School, Thomas L Friedman, Thorstein Veblen, Tim Cook: Apple, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, urban renewal, white picket fence, working poor, Y Combinator, young professional, zero-sum game

Krueger, “The Rise and Nature of Alternative Work Arrangements in the United States, 1995–2015” (NBER Working Paper No. 22667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, September 2016), http://www.nber.org/​papers/​w22667. to make a contribution, to make them feel worthwhile Many thanks to David Nordfors, PhD, founder of the International Institute of Innovation Journalism and Communication (IIIJ) and organizer of a series of top-level conferences focused on innovation and the future of work. David, who was kind enough to invite me to the meeting in Lund, Sweden, was also kind enough to share his thoughts on the future of work in a private conversation. nobody “can look forward to the age of leisure” John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren” [1930], in Revisiting Keynes: Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, ed. Lorenzo Pecchi and Gustavo Piga (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2008), 23. What’s next on your reading list?

Among the places and people I highlight are a large community college deep in the Rust Belt preparing the next generation of drone pilots, and a small liberal arts institution in the heart of Appalachia preparing the next generation of deep thinkers and innovators. What becomes clear is that people everywhere wish for the same thing—an education that will launch them into a life of productive, purposeful, and fairly compensated work. Wishes not being horses, only some will ride—and we’ll see why. And we’ll also get a hint of what we need (beyond wishes) to boost more of us up into the saddle. The fourth and final section is where the future of work comes alive: a philosopher turned sausage maker in Helsinki, Finland; a designer of motorcycles in Brooklyn; a twenty-four-year-old broom maker in Kentucky; a basketball shoe magnate in Philadelphia; the founder of a national convenience store chain in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Though wildly different in many ways, they share one common purpose: to get work right. We’ll follow their journeys and hear their thoughts, and also those of some of the nation’s—and the world’s—cutting-edge thinkers on work and its future.

This and so much more data—properly collected, codified, and analyzed—can be applied to automate almost any high-order task. Data can also serve as a surrogate for human experience and intuition. Online shopping and social media sites “learn” our preferences and use that information to make values-based assessments to influence our decisions and, ultimately, our behavior. What might this portend for the future of work? The answer to that question is as nervous making as it is uncertain. What we do know is that the allocation of tasks between humans and machines depends on the productivity of each—when humans do a job cheaper or faster than machines, they generally get to keep it. But there is no economic principle to support the idea that humans will frequently come out ahead. As in the case of Mrs. Budd’s “homemade” pies, when humans no longer keep pace, it is they who are sent home.


pages: 463 words: 115,103

Head, Hand, Heart: Why Intelligence Is Over-Rewarded, Manual Workers Matter, and Caregivers Deserve More Respect by David Goodhart

active measures, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, assortative mating, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, call centre, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, centre right, computer age, corporate social responsibility, COVID-19, Covid-19, David Attenborough, David Brooks, deglobalization, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, desegregation, deskilling, different worldview, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Etonian, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Flynn Effect, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, glass ceiling, illegal immigration, income inequality, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labour market flexibility, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shock, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, pink-collar, post-industrial society, post-materialism, postindustrial economy, precariat, reshoring, Richard Florida, Scientific racism, Skype, social intelligence, spinning jenny, Steven Pinker, superintelligent machines, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Thorstein Veblen, twin studies, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, upwardly mobile, wages for housework, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, young professional

Millions of us are willing to pay a few cents extra to hear her rather than another singer who is only marginally less able; and this allows Battle to write her own ticket.”29 The focus on the most talented people at the tops of organizations, combined, especially in Britain and America, with intense pressure to reduce costs and maximize shareholder returns, has also been reshaping the way that big corporations operate in what is sometimes called the “Future of Work” transformation. Back in the 1980s what are sometimes called the global multinationals (GMNs) began introducing enterprise-wide IT systems and turned routine administrative work into specialist centralized “shared services centers” that supplied a standard service to all business units. As this work was classified as nonstrategic and non–value creating, it could even be outsourced and offshored to low-wage countries. GMNs reduced their head count and produced much better-looking labor productivity ratios. This opening phase of the Future of Work established a sense of “core” work and work that could be contracted out to the “contingent” labor market. A friend of mine who designs remuneration systems for big companies, and therefore has to remain anonymous, described to me the next phase: The next phase is driven by the GMNs’ fear of the new wave of small, agile digital disruptors.

., What We Really Do All Day, 135. 57 “Billion Pound Loss in Volunteering Effort,” ONS, March 2017. 58 Marilyn French, The Women’s Room (London: Virago Modern Classics, 1977). 59 Gretchen Livingston, “Adult Caregiving Often Seen as Very Meaningful by Those Who Do It,” Pew Research Center, November 8, 2018. 60 Mary Harrington, “How Motherhood Put an End to My Liberalism,” UnHerd, October 9, 2019, https://unherd.com/2019/10/how-motherhood-put-an-end-to-my-liberalism/. 61 Catherine Hakim, “A New Approach to Explaining Fertility Patterns: Preference Theory,” Population and Development Review 29, no.3 (2003), 349–74. 62 British Social Attitudes Survey, 1989. 63 Bronnie Ware, The Top Five Regrets of the Dying (London: Hay House, 2019). Chapter Nine: The Fall of the Knowledge Worker 1 Paul Krugman, “White Collar Workers Turn Blue,” New York Times Magazine, September 29, 1996, https://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/BACKWRD2.html. 2 Richard Baldwin, The Globotics Upheaval Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019), 12–13. 3 Phillip Brown and Hugh Lauder, “Auctioning the Future of Work,” World Policy, June 10, 2013. 4 Ibid. 5 Ibid. 6 Ibid. 7 Richard and Daniel Susskind, The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2015), 1. 8 Ibid., 2. 9 Ibid., xi. 10 OECD (2018), “How Does the Earnings Advantage of Tertiary-Educated Workers Evolve Across Generations?

The disruption experienced by relatively well-educated professionals could lead to a new sympathy for people performing Hand and Heart work, partly because many former accountants and lawyers will find themselves doing those jobs. The educated people who voted against populism will be far more open to reallocating status when automation has abolished their jobs, as Richard Baldwin predicts in The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work. At the same time, the pay, conditions, and training of Hand and Heart jobs are likely to improve because of the simple operation of supply and demand. And most of these everyday face-to-face service and care jobs, from car mechanic to mail deliverer and nursery nurse, cannot be exported or done by a robot. Low-skill work is not, as widely predicted by economists, disappearing. In Gordon Brown’s penultimate budget speech as chancellor of the exchequer in 2006, he predicted there would be just 600,000 low-skill jobs in the United Kingdom by 2020.


pages: 257 words: 76,785

Shorter by Alex Soojung-Kim Pang

8-hour work day, airport security, Albert Einstein, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, centre right, cloud computing, colonial rule, disruptive innovation, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, game design, gig economy, Henri Poincaré, IKEA effect, iterative process, job automation, job satisfaction, job-hopping, Johannes Kepler, Kickstarter, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, means of production, neurotypical, performance metric, race to the bottom, remote working, Second Machine Age, side project, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, telemarketer, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, women in the workforce, young professional, zero-sum game

You’ll discover the benefits that four-day weeks bring to companies, employees, and clients alike, how they make companies more productive, people more creative, careers more sustainable, and clients happier and more satisfied. You’ll learn why many companies succeed in moving to a shorter workweek, and why a few fail. Finally, you’ll see how by treating work and time as things that we can redesign using the same tools that cutting-edge companies use to create world-class products and services, we can make our work better, our workplaces happier and more prosperous, and the future of work brighter. Reducing business hours runs against every instinct we have about work and success and requires defying professional norms and ignoring social expectations. Yet it can work. Shortening the workweek can help make companies run better, encourage leaders and workers to develop new skills, enhance focus and collaboration, make work more sustainable, and improve work-life balance. It can even help the environment, reduce traffic and congestion, and make people healthier.

“Prototype” is all about the practical steps companies take when redesigning the workday: how they change daily routines, meetings, and cultural norms; how they exploit technology; and how people learn to manage and collaborate in new ways. “Test” presents the results: how shorter working hours affect recruitment and retention, productivity, and profitability; the impact it has on work-life balance and creativity; and how clients and customers react. Finally, “Share” explains how shorter workweeks could change the future of work, how they could help us deal with rising levels of stress and burnout, how they create new ways of solving problems posed by automation and AI, and how they could even contribute to fighting inequality and climate change. Using design thinking as a framework also keeps us focused on the question of “How can I do this?” I don’t just want to present an abstract or moral case for a shorter workweek; others, like historian Rutger Bregman and the New Economics Foundation in London, are already making that argument.

Jinya is notable as a technical innovator, and for its efforts to make this traditional industry appealing to modern workers. Those efforts point to an important part of the story of companies moving to four-day workweeks. Their solutions turn out to hold the seeds of a business revolution, a paradigm shift in how we think about work, productivity, time, and technology. That paradigm shift, as we’ll see in the final section, holds the promise of a better future of work. It could contribute to solving looming problems with an aging workforce, climate change, and automation and AI. TSURUMAKIKITA, HADANO, JAPAN The Jinya ryokan is a small inn located in Kanagawa prefecture, about an hour outside Tokyo. A ryokan is a traditionally styled guesthouse: think futons on tatami mats, hot-spring baths, multicourse kaiseki meals, and well-tended gardens. Some ryokans aren’t just traditional but genuinely medieval: the oldest ryokan has been operating for 1,300 years.


pages: 344 words: 94,332

The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity by Lynda Gratton, Andrew Scott

3D printing, Airbnb, assortative mating, carbon footprint, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, disruptive innovation, diversification, Downton Abbey, Erik Brynjolfsson, falling living standards, financial independence, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Google Glasses, indoor plumbing, information retrieval, intangible asset, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, New Economic Geography, old age dependency ratio, pattern recognition, pension reform, Peter Thiel, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, side project, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, The Future of Employment, uber lyft, women in the workforce, young professional

The fact that this is already happening is given credence in one recent economic study which found that the long-running increase in demand for skilled workers started to go into reverse in 2000.13 In a much-quoted study, Oxford academics Carl Frey and Michael Osborne14 calculate that a total of 47 per cent of jobs in the US are vulnerable to these forces in the next few decades – that’s 60 million jobs. The future of work These are complex issues, yet those looking forward to a long life are faced with making some early bets about what path to go down. What would be the advice to them? What will be the future of work? Unique human skills From a technological perspective, the real question about the future of work concerns the limits of AI and robotic substitution. At the time of writing there is broad agreement that certain skills and capabilities are unique to humans and cannot (yet) be replicated or substituted by AI or robotics. David Autor and his co-authors point to two sets of these uniquely human capabilities.

As we look forward, the question to be addressed is how ‘sticky’ this pay gap is likely to be. Right now it is likely that when Jane enters her first job she will experience gender parity. But will this continue over her career? For example, will Jane find it as hard to become a senior executive as women in 2014 are finding it? Forecasts from the International Labour Organization (ILO)22 report ‘Women and the Future of Work’, published in early 2015, suggest it will take at least seventy years to reach gender wage parity given current rates of change. That’s 2085, by which time Jane will be 87. It is a very dispiriting thought. Flexibility Goldin’s detailed analysis sheds much light on the issue of why women earn less than men. She concludes that the gender gap in pay is largely a result of the value placed on the different characteristics of the work in which men and women have historically engaged.

The scarcer your talents, the stronger your negotiation hand and therefore the more choices you have to structure your life and make the most of your 100 years. Not everyone will have this negotiation hand or access to choice. How far along on this agenda are corporations? As part of this 100-year study, we took a sounding of what corporations are currently doing to prepare for these new ways of working. This became a theme of the Future of Work Consortium that Lynda directs and which brings together executives from around the world. In a series of interviews, and then in a workshop in London in October 2014, we discussed their plans to make the most of this 100-year bonanza. We found that, with a few exceptions, most are doing very little. Many firms simply don’t currently have the practices and processes to deal with the complexity of Jimmy’s and Jane’s lives.


pages: 229 words: 61,482

The Gig Economy: The Complete Guide to Getting Better Work, Taking More Time Off, and Financing the Life You Want by Diane Mulcahy

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, basic income, Clayton Christensen, cognitive bias, collective bargaining, creative destruction, David Brooks, deliberate practice, diversification, diversified portfolio, fear of failure, financial independence, future of work, gig economy, helicopter parent, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Lyft, mass immigration, mental accounting, minimum wage unemployment, mortgage tax deduction, negative equity, passive income, Paul Graham, remote working, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, TaskRabbit, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, wage slave, Y Combinator, Zipcar

The highly leveraged, high-overhead middle-class lifestyle simply isn’t sustainable in the Gig Economy The Future of Work: Stop Looking for a Job As we’ve seen throughout this book, we can, through a portfolio of diverse work, and independent of a full-time job, achieve decent pay, access good benefits, including our own healthcare coverage and retirement savings, have autonomy and control, pursue work that we believe is meaningful, and structure a life that is consistent with our vision of success and our priorities. In the Gig Economy, we can simply remove the rigid framework of a job and instead talk about how to encourage an economy of good work, no matter how it is organized and structured. We can achieve the benefits of a good job without having to get a job. This finding has enormous implications for workers, employers, and our economy. If we can accept that the future of work is based on work, not jobs, then we can start changing policies to give workers benefits, protections, and rights no matter how much or how they work.

From the time we’re kids, adults ask us what we want to be when we grow up, and the answers reflect what we see around us—employees in full-time jobs. We answer that we want to be teachers or doctors or firefighters. I haven’t yet heard a kid say that she wants to be a consultant, or a freelancer, or a contractor. But if I did, that’s the one I’d bet on, because that kid understands that employees in full-time jobs aren’t the future of work. By the time today’s kids grow up, becoming an employee and getting a full-time job will be the exception, not the rule. The Employee vs. Contractor Debate The Gig Economy is still emerging and gaining traction. Along the way, it’s exposing our obsolete, outdated, and confusing labor market policies. There has been much debate about how to change our laws and modify our labor markets in response to the Gig Economy.

My working life in the Gig Economy inspired it, the MBA class I teach on the topic informed it, and a whole team of independent Gig Economy workers helped research, edit, and review the manuscript, transcribed interviews, built a website, crafted a social media strategy, and agreed to be interviewed. As a team, we didn’t organize one conference call or attend one meeting, and none of our work took place in a cubicle (or even in an office). For those reasons alone, we all want the Gig Economy to be the future of work. So, first thanks go to the team. I was beyond lucky when I found Emily Adams as my research assistant. She joined me in the early stages of drafting this book, and stayed with me until the last submission, researching articles and reports, editing drafts, talking through concepts and ideas, and in the midst of it all, undergoing her own transformation from full-time employee to working independently in the Gig Economy.


pages: 394 words: 57,287

Unleashed by Anne Morriss, Frances Frei

"side hustle", Airbnb, Donald Trump, future of work, gig economy, glass ceiling, Grace Hopper, Jeff Bezos, Netflix Prize, Network effects, performance metric, race to the bottom, ride hailing / ride sharing, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, Tony Hsieh, Toyota Production System, Travis Kalanick, Uber for X, women in the workforce

It’s impossible to find out if your head is somewhere else, on your own needs and ambitions (and devices). The last thing we’ll say is this: if you do nothing else, put down your phone. You’ll be amazed at the immediate uptick in trust—and you may even get to end those meetings sooner. We’ve seen organizations that adopt high-empathy meeting norms cut the time they spend in meetings in half. (See the sidebar “Empathy and the Future of Work.”) Empathy and the Future of Work It has not been a banner decade for trust in the American workplace. We’ve grown increasingly skeptical that our employers will tell us the truth, have our backs in hard times, or compensate us fairly for the work we do. As massive forces such as globalization and technological innovation continue to reshape our experience of work, we’re pretty sure that someone else—or something else—will be doing our jobs in the future.

Escobari argues that a higher-skilled and more resilient workforce may be the fastest path to a future where we trust each other again. Although there’s an obvious role for the public sector in driving this change, Escobari knows that the private sector is indispensable and is energized by a renewed corporate focus on retraining employees (rather than laying them off) as technology transforms the workplace. She cites many examples of companies effectively preparing their employees for a future of work that is not so far away, including companies like Costco, JetBlue, and Trader Joe’s. We’ve even seen companies at the scale of Walmart begin to invest in employee education in innovative ways. In 2018, Walmart made headlines with its “dollar-a-day” education benefit that gives associates the chance to earn a college degree through nonprofit partner universities, paying the equivalent of $1 a day as they progress toward a bachelor’s or associate’s degree.10 Our education bias is clear—see our histories and career choices—but we believe a big part of the remedy to America’s trust wobble is to increase fair access to opportunities to develop a competitive skill set.

Until we treat that promise with reverence again, we’re not going to solve our collective trust problem. As one of our heroes, Brazilian thinker and teacher Paulo Freire, said, “What the educator does is make it possible for students to become themselves.”11 There is no higher human need than to realize our full potential, and no greater act of empathy than to enable that evolution in others. We believe the future of work—and of the planet Marcario has vowed to save—depends on our willingness to exchange the gift of each other’s transformation. Logic: Large but not quite in charge Your wobble may be logic if people don’t always have confidence in the rigor of your ideas—or full faith in your ability to deliver on them. The good news is the problem is typically rooted in the perception of wobbly logic rather than the reality of it.


pages: 336 words: 83,903

The Refusal of Work: The Theory and Practice of Resistance to Work by David Frayne

anti-work, basic income, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, call centre, clockwatching, David Graeber, deindustrialization, deskilling, future of work, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, low skilled workers, McJob, means of production, moral panic, new economy, post-work, profit motive, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, unpaid internship, working poor, young professional

What is so great about work that sees society constantly trying to create more of it? Why, at the pinnacle of society’s productive development, is there still thought to be a need for everybody to work for most of the time? What is work for, and what else could we be doing in the future, were we no longer cornered into spending most of our time working? As we will see, such questions are part of a well-established history of critical thinking on the meaning, purpose and future of work. If such questions are rarely posed outside of this academic clique, however, it is perhaps because they ask us to scrutinise realities that are usually accepted as natural and inevitable. It may feel like there is little incentive to reflect critically on work from a position where most of us, irrespective of our attitudes towards work, are pretty much obliged to perform it anyway. To take a critical stance on work may even seem distasteful or elitist in the context of a society where jobs are so highly sought after.

Capitalism continues to seek profits by plundering the environment and spreading the economy into hitherto uncommodified areas of life, and these trends are celebrated as vehicles for job creation. What Gorz and other critics of work prompt us to ask is nothing less than the following question: what kind of society do we want to live in? I have here provided a brief sketch of critical approaches to work that go beyond the Left’s traditional concerns with wages and working conditions, to question the future of work itself. Along with those authors who have interrogated the history of attitudes towards work, those writers who have questioned work’s future provide a valuable opportunity for some critical distance from the present, work-centred state of affairs. What they provide, above all, is a provocation: an occasion to question whether work can continue to function as the main lynchpin of income, rights and social belonging.

This task – which Gorz has called the politics of time – aims to offer a practical response to today’s disintegrating labour market. But more than this, it also invites us to talk about the conditions for freedom, and to engage in a dialogue about the kind of society we want to live in. Like the theorists presented here, I would like to see a fresh, progressive debate unfold on the meaning and future of work. I would like us to remember that the nine-to-five, Monday-to- Friday working week is a relatively modern invention, and to talk about other potential ways of distributing work. I would like us to think about alternative modes of experiencing the pleasure and solidarity which, up to now, have been conventionally sought through work. I would like us to assert a right for varied and meaningful lives outside employment, and to search for modes of fulfilment that render us less complicit in the capitalist’s search for private profit.


pages: 561 words: 157,589

WTF?: What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us by Tim O'Reilly

4chan, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Alvin Roth, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Bill Joy: nanobots, bitcoin, blockchain, Bretton Woods, Brewster Kahle, British Empire, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computer vision, corporate governance, corporate raider, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, data acquisition, deskilling, DevOps, Donald Davies, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Filter Bubble, Firefox, Flash crash, full employment, future of work, George Akerlof, gig economy, glass ceiling, Google Glasses, Gordon Gekko, gravity well, greed is good, Guido van Rossum, High speed trading, hiring and firing, Home mortgage interest deduction, Hyperloop, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, information asymmetry, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of movable type, invisible hand, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jitney, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, Lao Tzu, Larry Wall, Lean Startup, Leonard Kleinrock, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, McMansion, microbiome, microservices, minimum viable product, mortgage tax deduction, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, Oculus Rift, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, Paul Buchheit, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, Ponzi scheme, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Coase, Sam Altman, school choice, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, SETI@home, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Skype, smart contracts, Snapchat, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, social web, software as a service, software patent, spectrum auction, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, strong AI, TaskRabbit, telepresence, the built environment, The Future of Employment, the map is not the territory, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Davenport, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, trickle-down economics, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, ubercab, universal basic income, US Airways Flight 1549, VA Linux, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, Y Combinator, yellow journalism, zero-sum game, Zipcar

,” EconoMonitor, January 13, 2014, revised June 25, 2014, http://www.economonitor.com/dolanecon/2014/01/13/could-we-afford-a-universal-basic-income/. 307 would cost only $175 billion: Matt Bruenig and Elizabeth Stoker, “How to Cut the Poverty Rate in Half (It’s Easy),” The Atlantic, October 29, 2013, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/10/how-to-cut-the-poverty-rate-in-half-its-easy/280971/. 307 “I am confident”: “The Future of Work and the Proposal for a Universal Basic Income: A Discussion with Andy Stern, Natalie Foster, and Sam Altman,” held at Bloomberg Beta in San Francisco on June 27, 2016, https://raisingthefloor.splashthat.com. 309 Anne-Marie Slaughter: Anne-Marie Slaughter, Unfinished Business (New York: Random House, 2015). 309 “patterns of consumption”: Anne-Marie Slaughter, “How the Future of Work May Make Many of Us Happier,” Huffington Post, retrieved April 4, 2017, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/anne marie-slaughter/future-of-work-happier _b_6453594.html. 309 “support the families they are caring for”: Anne-Marie Slaughter, in conversation with Tim O’Reilly and Lauren Smiley, “Flexibility Needed: Not Just for On Demand Workers,” Next:Economy Summit, San Francisco, October 10–11, 2015.

Stephens II, “I Often Can’t Afford Groceries Because of Volatile Work Schedules at Gap,” Guardian, August 17, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/17/cant-afford-groceries-volatile-work-schedules-gap. 191 Starbucks: Jodi Cantor, “Working Anything but 9 to 5,” New York Times, August 13, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/08/13/us/star bucks-workers-scheduling-hours.html. 192 Starbucks only banned in mid-2014: Jodi Cantor, “Starbucks to Revise Policies to End Irregular Schedules for Its 130,000 Baristas,” New York Times, August 15, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/15/us/starbucks-to-revise-work-scheduling-policies.html. 192 “not enough hours”: Jodi Lambert, “The Real Low-Wage Issue: Not Enough Hours,” CNN, January 13, 2014, http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/13/news/economy/minimum-wage-hours/. 192 a host of other labor woes: Carrie Gleason and Susan Lambert, “Uncertainty by the Hour,” Future of Work Project, retrieved March 31, 2017, http://static.opensocietyfoundations. org/misc/future-of-work/just-in-time-workforce-technologies-and-low-wage-workers.pdf. 192 a study of Uber drivers: Jonathan Hall and Alan Krueger, “An Analysis of the Labor Market for Uber’s Driver-Partners in the United States,” Uber, January 22, 2015, https://s3.amazonaws.com/uber-static/comms/PDF/Uber_Driver-Partners _Hall_Kreuger_2015.pdf. 193 rather than to increase hours for individual workers: Susan Lambert, “Work Scheduling Study,” University of Chicago School of Social Service Administration, May 2010, retrieved March 31, 2017, https://ssascholars.uchicago. edu/sites/default/files/work-scheduling-study/files/univ_of_chicago_work _scheduling_manager_report_6_25_0. pdf. 193 “In August 2013”: Esther Kaplan, “The Spy Who Fired Me,” Harper’s, March 2015, 36, available at http://populardemo cracy.org/sites/default/files/Harpers Magazine-2015-03-0085373.pdf. 194 “new jobs fall on that spectrum”: Lauren Smiley, “Grilling the Government About the On-Demand Economy,” Backchannel, August 23, 2015, https://backchannel.com/why-the-us-secretary-or-labor-doesn-t-uber-272f18799f1a. 194 They became part-time employees: Brad Stone, “Instacart Reclassifies Part of Its Workforce Amid Regulatory Pressure on Uber,” Bloomberg Technology, June 22, 2015, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-22/instacart-reclassifies-part-of-its-work force-amid-regulatory-pressure-on-uber. 195 present for their children’s birthdays: Noam Scheiber, “The Perils of Ever-Changing Work Schedules Extend to Children’s Well-Being,” New York Times, August 12, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/13/business/economy/the-perils-of-ever-changin-work-schedules-extend-to-childrens-well-being.html. 196 writing in Harvard Business Review: Andrei Hagiu and Rob Biederman, “Companies Need an Option Between Contractor and Employee,” Harvard Business Review, August 21, 2015, https://hbr.org/2015/08/companies-need-an-option-between-contractor-and-employee. 196 writing on Medium: Simon Rothman, “The Rise of the Uncollared Worker and the Future of the Middle Class,” Medium, July 7, 2015, https://news. greylock.com/the-rise-of-the-uncollared-worker-and-the-future-of-the-middle-class-860a928357b7. 196 “Shared Security Account”: Nick Hanauer and David Rolf, “Shared Security, Shared Growth,” Democracy, no. 37 (Summer 2015), http://democracyjournal.org/magazine/37/shared-security-shared-growth/?

Yann LeCun, the head of Facebook’s AI research group, pointed out to me that most of the cutting-edge AI research today is being done at Google, Facebook, Baidu, and Microsoft. Key to their ability to hire the best people, he said, is these companies’ willingness to let their researchers share their work. Apple, which has a culture of secrecy, has been unable to attract top talent, and as a result, has recently had to change its policies. Understanding where value is created versus where it is captured is equally important when considering the future of work. As we will see in the next chapter, the question of whether the next wave of automation will leave enough jobs for humans is deeply rooted in outdated maps of what counts as paid work, and what we take for granted and expect to be provided for free. 14 WE DON’T HAVE TO RUN OUT OF JOBS AT THE OUTSET OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION, JOHN MAYNARD Keynes penned a remarkable economic prognostication: that despite the ominous storm that was then enfolding the world, mankind was in fact on the brink of solving “the economic problem”—that is, the quest for daily subsistence.


Bulletproof Problem Solving by Charles Conn, Robert McLean

active transport: walking or cycling, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, asset allocation, availability heuristic, Bayesian statistics, Black Swan, blockchain, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, cloud computing, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, endowment effect, future of work, Hyperloop, Innovator's Dilemma, inventory management, iterative process, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nate Silver, nudge unit, Occam's razor, pattern recognition, pets.com, prediction markets, principal–agent problem, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, smart contracts, stem cell, the rule of 72, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, time value of money, transfer pricing, Vilfredo Pareto, walkable city, WikiLeaks

Norton, March 2010). 7  Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick: People, Probabilities, and Big Moves to Beat the Odds (Wiley, 2018). 8  Professor Sally Cripps, Professor of Statistics, University of Sydney. 9  Mehrdad Baghai, Stephen C. Coley, and David White with Charles Conn and Robert McLean, “Staircases to Growth,” McKinsey Quarterly 4 (November 1996). 10  McKinsey Executive Briefing. Technology, Jobs, and the Future of Work. www.mckinsey.com/global‐themes/employment‐and‐growth/technology‐jobs‐and‐the‐future‐of‐work. 11  “The Digital Future of Work,” McKinsey Global Institute, July 2017, https://www.mckinsey.com/featured‐insights/future‐of‐work/the‐digital‐future‐of‐work‐what‐skills‐will‐be‐needed. 12  Personal assets and savings are an important part of retirement income in developed countries. Government practices vary widely in allowing personal assets to be held in addition to a pension. Some countries require assets to be included in pension calculations; others, like Australia, permit them to be retained outside pension calculations.


pages: 95 words: 6,448

Mending the Net: Toward Universal Basic Incomes by Chris Oestereich

basic income, en.wikipedia.org, future of work, profit motive, rent-seeking, The Future of Employment, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, universal basic income

[12] Davis, A, and Mishel, L, 2014, “CEO Pay Continues to Rise as Typical Workers Are Paid Less,” http://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-continues-to-rise/. [13] Proctor, B, Semega, J, and Kollar, M, 2016, “Income and Poverty in the United States: 2015 - Current Population Reports,” http.s://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p60-256.pdf, 9. [14] Vogel, P, 2016, “The Future of Work?” http://globalfocusmagazine.com/the-future-of-work/. [15] Wikipedia, 2016, “List of recessions in the United States,” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States. [16] Scharf, K, and Smith, S, 2016, “Peer-to-peer fundraising and ‘relational altruism’ in charitable giving,” http://voxeu.org/article/peer-peer-fundraising-and-relational-altruism-charitable-giving. [17] DeLong, B, 2016, “Musings on ‘Just Deserts’ and the Opening of Plato's Republic,” http://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/09/musings-on-just-deserts-and-the-opening-of-platos-republic-greg-mankiw-defending-the-1-proposes-what-he-cal.html


pages: 322 words: 84,580

The Economics of Belonging: A Radical Plan to Win Back the Left Behind and Achieve Prosperity for All by Martin Sandbu

"Robert Solow", Airbnb, autonomous vehicles, balance sheet recession, bank run, banking crisis, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, business cycle, call centre, capital controls, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, centre right, collective bargaining, debt deflation, deindustrialization, deskilling, Diane Coyle, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, intangible asset, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labour market flexibility, liquidity trap, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Martin Wolf, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mini-job, mortgage debt, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, pattern recognition, pink-collar, precariat, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Richard Florida, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, secular stagnation, social intelligence, TaskRabbit, total factor productivity, universal basic income, very high income, winner-take-all economy, working poor

Miguel Carreras, Yasemin Irepoglu Carreras, and Shaun Bowler, “Long-Term Economic Distress, Cultural Backlash, and Support for Brexit,” Comparative Political Studies 52, no. 9 (2019): 1396–424, https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414019830714, summarised in Miguel Carreras, Yasemin Irepoglu Carreras, and Shaun Bowler, “It Is the Interplay between Economic Factors and Individual Attitudes That Explains Brexit,” LSE British Politics and Policy blog, London School of Economics and Political Science, 7 May 2019, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/economics-and-culture-brexit/. Chapter 4. Half a Century of Policy Mistakes 1. Robert Solow, “The Future of Work: Why Wages Aren’t Keeping Up,” Pacific Standard, 11 August 2015, https://psmag.com/economics/the-future-of-work-why-wages-arent-keeping-up. Also see Nelson Lichtenstein, Walter Reuther: The Most Dangerous Man in Detroit, Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1997, chap. 14. 2. Susan Pedersen, “One-Man Ministry,” review of Bread for All: The Origins of the Welfare State, by Chris Renwick, London Review of Books 40, no. 3 (2018): 3–6, https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n03/susan-pedersen/one-man-ministry. 3. Solow, “Future of Work.” 4. Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Max Roser, “Taxation,” Our World in Data, 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/taxation. 5. Joseph McCartin, “The Strike That Busted Unions,” New York Times, 2 August 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/03/opinion/reagan-vs-patco-the-strike-that-busted-unions.html. 6.

Geoff Tily, “17-Year Wage Squeeze the Worst in Two Hundred Years,” Trade Unions Congress blog, 11 May 2018, https://www.tuc.org.uk/blogs/17-year-wage-squeeze-worst-two-hundred-years. 22. On stenographers, see Chris Summers, “Is Stenography a Dying Art?,” BBC News, 27 April 2011, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-13035979. More generally, see Richard Baldwin, The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019. 23. Daron Acemoglu, Philippe Aghion, and Giovanni Violante, “Deunionization, Technical Change and Inequality,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 55 (2001): 229–64, https://economics.mit.edu/files/5691. 24. See Sarah O’Connor, “How to Manage the Gig Economy’s Growing Global Jobs Market,” Financial Times, 30 October 2018, http://www.ft.com/content/5fe8991e-dc2a-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b, and Baldwin, Globotics Upheaval. 25.

Interview with Karl Ove Moene in Martin Sandbu, “Let Unions Erode at Your Peril,” Financial Times, 4 July 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/c2ee79c4-7f65-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d. 20. I have surveyed some of this evidence in Martin Sandbu, “Employee Empowerment and Business Productivity,” Financial Times, 20 March 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/2e1684d6-4a49-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d. 21. Richard Baldwin, The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019. 22. “About Us,” IWGB, accessed 6 December 2019, https://iwgb.org.uk/page/about/about. 23. Historian David Alan Corbin quoted in Gwynn Guildford, “The 100-Year Capitalist Experiment That Keeps Appalachia Poor, Sick, and Stuck on Coal,” Quartz, 30 December 2017, https://qz.com/1167671/the-100-year-capitalist-experiment-that-keeps-appalachia-poor-sick-and-stuck-on-coal/. 24.


pages: 188 words: 40,950

The Case for Universal Basic Income by Louise Haagh

back-to-the-land, basic income, battle of ideas, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, bitcoin, blockchain, cryptocurrency, delayed gratification, Diane Coyle, full employment, future of work, housing crisis, income inequality, job-hopping, land reform, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, mini-job, moral hazard, new economy, offshore financial centre, precariat, race to the bottom, rent control, road to serfdom, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart contracts, trickle-down economics, universal basic income

Basic Income, Human Development and Citizen Equality Modern Civilization and Social Incorporation Unfreedom in Welfare – Crises of Incorporation Pathways to Basic Income Reform Basic Income and Development Goals Income and Poverty Autonomy and Human Development Social Equality and Public Reform Notes 2 Human Development Freedom Social Policy and Market Justice Human Development and Humanist Justice Existential Need and Security Cognitive Development and Stability Dependence and Fellowship The Unitary Self and Control over Time The Competition Economy and the Process of Justice Notes 3 Democratic Development Democratic Equality and Public Effectiveness Basic Income and State Feasibility Economy and Democracy Basic Income and Other Benefits Basic Income or Services Automation and the Future of Work Governance and Public Norms Notes Conclusion The Life of a Gentleman Notes Appendix Index End User License Agreement Tables Chapter 1 Table 1. An Illustrative Citizen’s Basic Income Scheme Table 2. The Effect on Means-Tested Benefits Appendix Table A1. Structure of Cooperative Public Finance: Public Revenue Scores and Levels Table A2. Public Spending on Human Development Table A3.

Education systems that cease to include after the age of adolescence in effect merely pre-distribute. Income security that requires poverty or ill health redistributes and creates poverty traps. Instead, basic income can support building a societal system of health constitution and life-long learning. especially if combined with a programme of generating and stabilising new occupation economies, as I examine next. Automation and the Future of Work The democratic argument for basic income also alters our perspective on the impact of new technology under globalization. In a world of growing material and occupational squalor, in which nearly one-third of the world’s population suffer malnutrition72 and 10% lack safe water,73 the idea that technology-enabled life styles will be possible in the coming decades seems far-fetched. Similarly, the ‘end-of-work’ argument for basic income is a fairy tale that never comes true.

J. 166n44 Pennycook 55 Matthew pensions: public 10 pension credit 32–3 personal control: over daily life 69 and well-being 64 see also control Peterson, C. 176n36 Pettit, Philip 186n53 Philip, Ulla N. 168n62, 181n97 Piketty, Thomas 83, 178n68 pivot 3–5, 147 pivoting state 4 planning: of development 21 occupational 23 of working life 46 platform capitalism 149 see also capitalism political elitism 21 poor, moral correction of 54 Poor Laws 20 policy complementarity 23 and human development 136 populism 7 Portes, Jonathan 188n65, 188n68 postwar: peace, welfare 19 poverty, 6, 12 alleviation 1 anti-poverty policy 53, 55 causes of 56 child poverty 6 and compensation 12 and crime 20 cumulative disadvantage 5 see also destitution Powell, Andy 167n51 power: of individuals 36, 57, 134 inequalities 68 power relations 15 precarious work 119 see also work pre-distribution 117 and pro-distribution 120 and redistribution 98, 117, 170 Preston model 122 price controls 139 privatization: and social policy 28 of welfare 92 pro-distribution 120 property: communal 4 and democracy 12 in democratic society 172n91 in dividends 93, 119, 121, 123 hybrid 7 in land 93 public administration 40 public austerity 7, 14 see also austerity public finance 28, 50, 115 see also taxation public goods: fiscal public 50 and individual economy 3, 43, 93, 144, 152 public health 68–9 see also health public incorporation 149 see also incorporation public ownership 186n49, 191n94 public policy, developmental 38 public provision: developmental 38 and empathy 44 and voluntary choice 56 public records 26 public sector: compartmentalization of 146 franchising 111 progressive 50 standards 22 public service provision 6 public spending, and regulation 96 public subsidy 133 of low-paid jobs 46 taper rates 46 punitive norms 20 Pyper, Douglass 167n51, 167n53 R Ravallion, Martin 173n4, 174n16 Rawls, John 177n44 redistribution, paradox 117 Reeves, Aaron 163n11, 168n66, 168n67, 178n59 regularity principle 89 regulation: effectiveness of 96 of employment 66 of time 80 of wages 119 working time 26 relational welfare 44 rental market, private, 27 see also housing retirement, early 21, 82 see also pensions rights 26 developmental 63 employment 71 individual 148 means-testing 111, 131, 171n86 unconditional 11 universal 11 Ringen, Stein 192n106 risk: balanced 113 Britain 112 calculated 73 labour market 19 personalized 38 Robeyns, Ingrid 65, 174n19, 175n25 Roep, Dirk 190n83 Ruckert, Arne 176n33 Ruggie John G. 166n46 Russell, Bertrand 11, 164n24, 176n36 S Sahay, Ratna 181n5 Samson, Michael 190n86 Samuels, Fiona 176n35 sanctions, 25–7, 67, 70, 84, 137 and control, 62 in Denmark, 125 justifiability of, 38 in the UK 25 Sandberg, Lars G. 113, 187n56–n57 Sanderson, Catherine A. 176n36, 177n49 São Paulo 148, 186n47, 190n87 saving, 18, 20, 39, 46, 105–6 113, 116, 130 schooling 3, 7, 61, 74, 82, 142, 152, 175 humanist 59, 61, 67–8, 74, 82 see also education security: basic, 7, 15, 18–19, 24, 45, 68, 70–1, 149 certainty, 123 definition as shared, 15 developmental, 37 existential, 3–4 form of, 147 multi-layered systems, 66 in society, see also economic security; human development self: independence of, 5 self-determination, 36 self-employed, 124, 131–2, 191n102 self-gratification, 74 self-organization, 44, 93 unitary and control of time, 82 unitary sense of, 4 Sen, Amartya 16, 63, 76, 166n39–n40, 166n42, 174n19, 175n23, 178n54 Sennett, Richard 177n50 settlement, 20, 78, 122–3, 135, 146, 148 entitlement, 45, 78 shelter 141 SEWA (Self-Employed Women’s Association) 124 Silicon Valley 107 single mothers, 78 see also mothers skills: development of 15 levels, 150 and occupation 80 and control of work 80 slow thinking 69 Smallwood, Jonathan 175n35 social assistance 19, 125 social democratic states 50, 132 social dependence 60, 68 social equality 2, 15, 39, 102, 136 see also equality social exclusion, 65 division 7 social incorporation 2, 13, 18, 23 see also incorporation social insurance 51, 103, 124 contributory 51 voluntary 132 social leakage 26 social mobility 119 social policy 28 punitive 67 and regulation 96, 116 and targeting 111, 117 social relations 36, 44 and justice 57 monetization of 85 social security 108, 114 diversification of 113, 143 social services 19 relation with citizens 66 social welfare: baseline 35 see also welfare, social provision, public society: civil society 7 constitution 93 constructed 51 democratic 15 stability of 101 fabric 7 incorporation of 2, 13, 18, 23 informalization 27 security in 68, 108 workless 12 see also civil rights solidarity 135 Sørensen, Louise 168n62, 191n97 South Africa 111, 123 South Korea 112, 157 Spain 2 Spence, Thomas 1, 19, 93, 162n1, 181n1 spot-purchasing 22 stability: in education 5 in external income security 5 employment 150 stable social positions 35 stable structures 68, 89 in work structures 68, 77 standards: humanist 57, 61 public 57 standardization 54 and competition 8–9 Standing, Guy 15, 165n34, 179n61, 190n86, 190n88 state: Anglo-liberal 49 capacity 3 competition state 8, 164n16 disempowerment of 106 as distributive agent 20 entrepreneurial 21, 107 fiscal 9 and informal structures 109 insurer of last resort 115 and libertarianism 36 Nordic 49 parastatals 105 pivoting states 4 protective 20 punitive 20 regulatory 84 seventeenth-century 19 sixteenth-century 19 smaller role for 12 social democratic 50, 132 status: basic 5, 109 outside system 21 benefit assessment 6 exclusion 4 health impact 6 of individuals 23, 35 social 4 Stavropoulou, Maria 176n35 Steinmo, Sven 179n64, 186n48 Stewart, Frances 180n76, 186n46 stratification system 21 structure, reliance on 68 Stuckler, David 163n10–n11, 168n67, 178n59 subsidiarity 142 subsidy of low-paid jobs 46 taper rates 46 subsistence: independence-respecting 34 life-time 62, 105 super-managers 83 Suplicy, Eduardo 190n87 Supreme Court, UK 85 Sustainable Development Goals 106 Svallfors, Stefan 188n64, 191n101 Sweden 84 Switzerland 1, 12, 157 system of cooperation 20 T targeting, 14, 37 and inequality, 14 of welfare 96 Tatsiramos, Konstantinos 177n46 taxation: credits 96 cooperative system of 50, 116 evasion 96 flat tax 134 havens 96, 181n4 levels in GDP 49 and new economies 144 rates 47–8, 50 systems of 49 tax-free allowances 24, 259n75 top-rate 30, 50 technology 121–2 and human organization 121 and mindless governing 40 and public administration 40 and public ownership 186n49, 191n94 Thelen, Kathleen 175n29, 187n55 time: for care 22 control of 60, 62, 80, 82, 140 and leisure 60 protected space 139 regulation of 26 schedules 113 time profile 36–7 time use 35 see also control; work Titmuss, Richard 10, 13–14, 19–20, 28, 79, 164n19–n20, 165n31, 166n43, 166n45, 169n74 tragedy, 69 double tragedy, 77 tragic choices 65 training: investment in, 117 spending, 98 spending and trends, 49 tax breaks, 97 see also education transformation 3 trickle-down economics 23 U UK 22, 25–8, 47–8, 81, 94, 96, 99–100, 102, 111, 114, 117–18, 122, 124, 126, 129, 132, 154–6, 158–61, 167n53, 168n66, 181n6, 181n10, 183n29, 184n30, 184n34, 190n89 UN 106 uncertainty 27, 150, 178n57 unemployment 21 systems 126–8 youth 105 unemployment insurance 99–100, 132–4 unions 21 membership 132 see also labour United States 1, 157, 175n27, 177n48 Universal Basic Infrastructure 118 and housing 150 Universal Basic Services 118 Universal Credit 114 universal health 143 see also health universal suffrage 52 universality: basic 42 of outcome 42 Urs, Rohner 184n33 V Van den Berg, Leonardo 190n83 Van der Veen, Robert 171n77, 171n80 van Parijs, Philippe 15, 36, 41, 145, 165n35, 171n78, 171n80–1, 171n83, 172n87–90, 172n92, 174n15, 192n3 Vanderborght, Yannick 15, 165n35, 172n90 Venn, Danielle 168n59 vulnerability 76 condition for social coercion 79 of employees 85 of women 76 W wages: compression 21 corrosion 49 dispersal 49 super-managers 83 Watts, Beth 168n66 Waugh, Evelyn 140–1 Weale, Martin 188n70 wealth: and opportunity 146 and stability 3, 73, 120 wealth funds 38 welfare: administration 19 assistentialism 14 and bureaucracy 150 causality 14 conservative discourse 14 debt finance of 58 humanist design 34, 59 inefficiency 20 needs-based 28 privatization 56–7 relational model 44 social outreach 45 unconditionality 116, 129 see also targeting welfare administration 40 and inefficiency 20 welfare state, 8–9 displacement of, 13 postwar, 9, 14, 19–21 universal, 8 see also welfare well-being, 64, 74, 80–1 and control over daily life, 69 daily tasks, 74 eudemonic, 74 and insecurity 70, 75, 78 Whitehead, Laurence 103, 183n26 Whitehead, Margaret 163n11 whole economy 38 Widerquist, Karl 167n57, 178n53 Williams, Emlyn 177n41 work: dignity in 72 end-of-work argument 121 for external rewards 36 future of work 121 and incentives 26 intensity 104 irregularity 77 managerial control 66 motivation 58, 109 work schedules 77 workfare 71 worker control 66 workers: mutual insurance 43 vulnerability of 85 workers control 66 workfare 71 working life 46 planning of 46 freedom in 52 working tax credits 46 workless society 12, workloads 77 work-time reduction 82 World Bank 57 Y youth: unemployment 105 see also generational justice Z zero-hours contracts 71 perverse incentives 71 Zuckerberg, Mark 11, 164n23 POLITY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT Go to www.politybooks.com/eula to access Polity’s ebook EULA.


pages: 380 words: 109,724

Don't Be Evil: How Big Tech Betrayed Its Founding Principles--And All of US by Rana Foroohar

"side hustle", accounting loophole / creative accounting, Airbnb, AltaVista, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, book scanning, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, call centre, cashless society, cleantech, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, Colonization of Mars, computer age, corporate governance, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, cryptocurrency, data is the new oil, death of newspapers, Deng Xiaoping, disintermediation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Etonian, Filter Bubble, future of work, game design, gig economy, global supply chain, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, income inequality, informal economy, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, Kenneth Rogoff, life extension, light touch regulation, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, Menlo Park, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, PageRank, patent troll, paypal mafia, Peter Thiel, pets.com, price discrimination, profit maximization, race to the bottom, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Bork, Sand Hill Road, search engine result page, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, smart cities, Snapchat, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, subscription business, supply-chain management, TaskRabbit, Telecommunications Act of 1996, The Chicago School, the new new thing, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, Travis Kalanick, trickle-down economics, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, Upton Sinclair, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game

Michael Sainato, “Accidents at Amazon: Workers Left to Suffer After Warehouse Injuries,” The Guardian, July 30, 2018. 15. Foroohar, “Vivienne Ming.” 16. Jodi Kantor, “Working Anything but 9 to 5,” The New York Times, August 13, 2014. 17. Rosenblat, Uberland, 177. 18. Ibid., 110. 19. “Prediction: How AI Will Affect Business, Work, and Life,” Managing the Future of Work, Harvard Business School podcast, May 8, 2019, https://www.hbs.edu/​managing-the-future-of-work/​podcast/​Pages/​default.aspx. 20. Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz, The Race Between Education and Technology (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2008). 21. World Trade Organization, “Impact of Technology on Labour Market Outcomes,” 2017. 22. Rana Foroohar, “Gap Between Gig Economy’s Winners and Losers Fuels Populists,” Financial Times, May 2, 2017. 23.

As Rosenblat points out, this asymmetry is similar to that enjoyed by other Big Tech firms, like Amazon, who can steer customers to more costly products through rankings, or Google, which promotes itself as a neutral arbiter of information, even as PageRank’s algorithms remain inside the black box, with any biases that might be present known only to the company itself.18 These strategies allow only “the fantasy that there are no more issues of power in the workplace,” said AFL-CIO policy director Damon Silvers in a Harvard Business School podcast on the future of work. “In reality, companies like Uber know more about their employees, and have a tighter grip on their behavior, than any steel or auto company ever did. In the absence of workers having collective power, digital technology, AI, and cheap surveillance technology will combine to make information advantages that accrue to employers…at a scale and intensity we’ve never seen before.”19 Superstars Take All There’s no question that low-level gig workers—from handymen to yoga instructors to childcare providers—get the short end of the stick in the digital economy.

Nico Grant and Ian King, “Big Tech’s Big Tax Ruse: Industry Splurges on Buybacks Not Jobs,” Bloomberg, April 14, 2019. 57. According to data compiled by the government relations firm Mehlman, Castagnetti, 2019. 58. Cade Metz, “Why WhatsApp Only Needs 50 Engineers for Its 900M Users,” Wired, September 15, 2015. 59. Alistair Gray, “US Retailers Shut Up Shop as Amazon’s March Continues,” Financial Times, March 8, 2019. 60. James Manyika et al., “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: What the Future of Work Will Mean for Jobs, Skills, and Wages,” McKinsey and Company, November 2017. 61. “Mapping Inequalities Across the On-Demand Economy,” Data and Society, accessed May 9, 2019, https://datasociety.net/​initiatives/​future-of-labor/​mapping-inequalities-across-the-on-demand-economy/. 62. Shoshana Zuboff, “Big Other: Surveillance Capitalism and the Prospects of an Information Civilization,” Journal of Information Technology, April 17, 2015. 63.


pages: 374 words: 111,284

The AI Economy: Work, Wealth and Welfare in the Robot Age by Roger Bootle

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Albert Einstein, anti-work, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Bernie Sanders, blockchain, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Chris Urmson, computer age, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, deskilling, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, facts on the ground, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of the wheel, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, mega-rich, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, positional goods, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, social intelligence, spinning jenny, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, universal basic income, US Airways Flight 1549, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, wealth creators, winner-take-all economy, Y2K, Yogi Berra

As far as possible, I try to help readers to maintain their patience and enhance their understanding by indicating where issues that have been apparently ignored or glossed over are dealt with later in the book. Whether ordinary individuals, businesspeople, or workers in government and public policy, many readers will doubtless be itching to get straight to the nitty-gritty questions concerning the effects of robots and AI on the various aspects of their lives and activities described above. But they will need to hold their horses for a while. Any attempt to speculate about the future of work, incomes, education, leisure, and a whole host of other things that may be affected by robots and AI will be meaningless without an understanding of the macro environment. Indeed, it is precisely the lack of an adequate understanding of the macroeconomic aspects that mars so many accounts of the robot and AI revolution and leads their authors to false conclusions. Moreover, this book is, after all, about the economic consequences of robots and AI.

He says: “and when we sort them by the number of jobs they provide, we have to go all the way down to twenty-first place in the list until we encounter a new occupation: software developer, who make up less than 1 percent of the U.S. jobs market.”15 Following on in this vein, there are some pretty apocalyptic estimates of future unemployment from a number of analysts and forecasters. “The Millennium Project,” established in 1996 by a combination of UN organizations and US academic bodies, produced a report entitled “2015–16 State of the Future,” including a section on the future of work, based on a poll of 300 “experts” from different countries. Their verdict was that global unemployment would be “only” 16 percent in 2030, and still “only” 24 percent in 2050. So that’s all right, then.16 A more credible analysis comes from McKinsey. It estimates that, if advanced societies switch rapidly to new technology, by 2030 as many as 700 million people could be displaced by robots.

You will already have noticed the high regard in which I hold John Maynard Keynes on the subject of macroeconomics, which he more or less invented. You may be surprised, though, to find him playing a major role here in the discussion about the balance between work and leisure. Mind you, as will soon become clear, his thinking on this subject is very far from being the last word. Indeed, his contribution in this area posed more questions than it provided answers. But it highlights a key question relevant to the future of work in the Robot Age, namely why do people currently work as much as they do? And whatever the reasons, are they bound to continue in this way in the future? Interestingly, although he envisaged a rather different route to this end state, Keynes had a similar vision to Marx. In an essay entitled “The Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” published in 1931, Keynes suggested that in a hundred years’ time the standard of living would be between four and eight times as high as it was then.6 This, he claimed, would be enough to end the economic problem, that is to say, shortage, and to replace it with abundance.


pages: 357 words: 95,986

Inventing the Future: Postcapitalism and a World Without Work by Nick Srnicek, Alex Williams

3D printing, additive manufacturing, air freight, algorithmic trading, anti-work, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, basic income, battle of ideas, blockchain, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, business cycle, call centre, capital controls, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, centre right, collective bargaining, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, deskilling, Doha Development Round, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, financial independence, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, housing crisis, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, intermodal, Internet Archive, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kickstarter, late capitalism, liberation theology, Live Aid, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, market design, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, mass incarceration, means of production, minimum wage unemployment, Mont Pelerin Society, neoliberal agenda, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, patent troll, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, Philip Mirowski, post scarcity, post-work, postnationalism / post nation state, precariat, price stability, profit motive, quantitative easing, reshoring, Richard Florida, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Slavoj Žižek, social web, stakhanovite, Steve Jobs, surplus humans, the built environment, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, wages for housework, We are the 99%, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population

(London: Penguin, 2012); Andrew McGettigan, The Great University Gamble: Money, Markets and the Future of Higher Education (London: Pluto Press, 2013). 128.Standing, Precariat, p. 45. 129.Notably, even Paul Krugman and Lawrence Summers are doubtful that skills training will be able to solve the upcoming problems. Paul Krugman, ‘Sympathy for the Luddites’, New York Times, 13 June 2013; Lawrence Summers, ‘Roundtable: The Future of Jobs’, presented at The Future of Work in the Age of the Machine, Hamilton Project, Washington, DC, 19 February 2015, at hamiltonproject.org. 130.Glyn, Capitalism Unleashed, pp. 27–31. 131.Harvey, Companion to Marx’s Capital, Volume 1, pp. 284–5. 132.PMI surveys suggest the annual growth rate has been 2 per cent, which is far below what has been standard for global GDP growth. (Chris Williamson, ‘January’s PMI Surveys Signal First Global Growth Upturn for Six Months’, Markit, 4 February 2015, at markit.com.)

., p. 42. 38.In an unexpected revival of an old Marxist theory, two recent models have suggested that automation will lead to the immiseration of workers: Jeffrey Sachs, Seth Benzell and Guillermo LaGarda, Robots: Curse or Blessing? A Basic Framework, Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2015, at nber.org; Seth Benzell, Laurence Kotlikoff, Guillermo LaGarda and Jeffrey Sachs, Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement, Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2015, at nber.org. 39.Lawrence Summers, ‘Roundtable: The Future of Jobs’, presented at The Future of Work in the Age of the Machine, Hamilton Project, Washington, DC, 19 February 2015, at hamiltonproject.org. The ILO also argues that today’s sluggish global job growth is related largely to sluggish economic growth, but they also note that productivity growth has recovered quicker than employment growth. ILO, World Employment and Social Outlook: The Changing Nature of Jobs (Geneva: International Labour Organization, 2015), pp. 19, 23. 40.Bank of International Settlements, Annual Report, 2013/2014 (Basel: Bank for International Settlements, 2014), at bis.org, pp. 58–60; Robert Gordon, ‘US Productivity Growth: The Slowdown Has Returned After a Temporary Revival’, International Productivity Monitor 25 (2013); David Autor, ‘Roundtable: The Future of Jobs’, presented at the The Future of Work in the Age of the Machine, Hamilton Project, Washington, DC, 19 February 2015, at hamiltonproject.org. 41.Susantu Basu and John Fernald, Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from U.S.

ILO, World Employment and Social Outlook: The Changing Nature of Jobs (Geneva: International Labour Organization, 2015), pp. 19, 23. 40.Bank of International Settlements, Annual Report, 2013/2014 (Basel: Bank for International Settlements, 2014), at bis.org, pp. 58–60; Robert Gordon, ‘US Productivity Growth: The Slowdown Has Returned After a Temporary Revival’, International Productivity Monitor 25 (2013); David Autor, ‘Roundtable: The Future of Jobs’, presented at the The Future of Work in the Age of the Machine, Hamilton Project, Washington, DC, 19 February 2015, at hamiltonproject.org. 41.Susantu Basu and John Fernald, Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from U.S. Industry Data (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper, 2006), p. 17, pdf available at frbsf.org. 42.However, emerging research suggests industrial robots have already contributed around 16 per cent of recent labour productivity growth.


pages: 323 words: 90,868

The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, and Status in the Twenty-First Century by Ryan Avent

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, Airbnb, American energy revolution, assortative mating, autonomous vehicles, Bakken shale, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collective bargaining, computer age, creative destruction, dark matter, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, falling living standards, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Ford paid five dollars a day, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, gig economy, global supply chain, global value chain, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, intangible asset, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, inventory management, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, knowledge economy, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, mass immigration, means of production, new economy, performance metric, pets.com, post-work, price mechanism, quantitative easing, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reshoring, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, software is eating the world, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, very high income, working-age population

A man must always live by his work, and his wages must at least be sufficient to maintain him. Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations1 Don’t mourn for me, friends, don’t weep for me never, For I’m going to do nothing for ever and ever. Epitaph for a charwoman, traditional, quoted in ‘Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren’, John Maynard Keynes, 19302 Introduction In January of 2014, The Economist, my employer, published a piece I had written on the future of work in an age of rapid automation. A sample: Ten years ago technologically minded economists pointed to driving cars in traffic as the sort of human accomplishment that computers were highly unlikely to master. Now Google cars are rolling round California driver-free no one doubts such mastery is possible … A taxi driver will be a rarity in many places by the 2030s or 2040s … bad news for journalists who rely on that most reliable source of local knowledge and prejudice.1 Not long after, a minor earthquake rattled the city of Los Angeles early in the morning.

America was the world’s richest nation at the time (having surpassed Britain in income per person, adjusted for inflation, in the first decade of the twentieth century) yet much of the country still lacked electricity and running water, and many earned incomes not much different from those of workers in Medieval Europe.18 I’m not sure my great-grandfather would have believed that, just eighty years later, his grandson and great-grandson would enjoy a standard of living that would have been the envy of ancient kings – and which was perfectly common among middle-class Americans of the late twentieth century – relaxing on a couch in front of a large colour television in an air-conditioned home with two cars in the garage, a full pantry, and a refrigerator stocked with cold drinks. Never before in history have so many people been so well off as at this moment in time. But the next shoe is about to drop. Before we make it to point C – a world in which the benefits of the digital revolution are shared broadly and peacefully – we can expect difficulties. They have already begun. The subject of the future of work in a digital economy has been well covered – in serious magazines, including but by no means limited to my employer, The Economist, and in a growing number of important books. Worries and speculation have grown more intense and more common since 2011, when Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee published Race Against the Machine,19 which laid out in compelling detail how quickly the capabilities of clever software and robots were improving.

Mandel might be right, but that vision of future work relies on a very specific version of biomedical advance; innovations that grow the organ on the inside of the body or repair existing organs non-surgically might, alternatively, dramatically reduce the need for medical care.6 Indeed, while fields such as education and healthcare have long been held out as the great hope for future employment growth, that hope is built on an assumption that productivity in those industries will remain low. But it might not; the future of work in education and healthcare hinges on how society opts to resolve the trilemma. COST DISEASE, AND THE DOWNSIDE TO JOB CREATION William Baumol is an American economist. His career has been a long and productive one: he finished his PhD in 1949 and published his most recent book in 2012. Yet among his most significant contributions to the world is the story behind stagnant productivity growth across large swathes of modern economies.


pages: 413 words: 119,587

Machines of Loving Grace: The Quest for Common Ground Between Humans and Robots by John Markoff

"Robert Solow", A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, AI winter, airport security, Apple II, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bill Duvall, bioinformatics, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, call centre, cellular automata, Chris Urmson, Claude Shannon: information theory, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, collective bargaining, computer age, computer vision, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, DARPA: Urban Challenge, data acquisition, Dean Kamen, deskilling, don't be evil, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Hofstadter, Dynabook, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, factory automation, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, future of work, Galaxy Zoo, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Grace Hopper, Gunnar Myrdal, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hacker Ethic, haute couture, hive mind, hypertext link, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, information retrieval, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of the wheel, Jacques de Vaucanson, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Conway, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, loose coupling, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, medical residency, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, Mother of all demos, natural language processing, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Stallman, Robert Gordon, Rodney Brooks, Sand Hill Road, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, semantic web, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Singularitarianism, skunkworks, Skype, social software, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, strong AI, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, Ted Nelson, telemarketer, telepresence, telepresence robot, Tenerife airport disaster, The Coming Technological Singularity, the medium is the message, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Catalog, William Shockley: the traitorous eight, zero-sum game

Green, and Ben Sand, “The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks,” NBER Working Paper No. 18901, National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2013, http://www.economics.ubc.ca/files/2013/05/pdf_paper_paul-beaudry-great-reversal.pdf. 26.Ibid. 27.James Manyika, Susan Lund, Byron Auguste, and Sreenivas Ramaswamy, “Help Wanted: The Future of Work in Advanced Economies,” McKinsey Global Institute, March 2012, http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/employment_and_growth/future_of_work_in_advanced_economies. 28.Robin Harding, “US Has Lost 2M Clerical Jobs since 2007,” Financial Times, April 1, 2013, http://www.ft.com/intl/cm/s/0/37666e6c-9ae5-11e2-b982-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3V2czZqsP. 29.Melody Johnson, “Right-Wing Media Attack Obama for Accurate Remarks on Business’ [sic] Investment in Automated Machines,” MediaMatters for America, June 15, 2011, http://mediamatters.org/research/2011/06/15/right-wing-media-attack-obama-for-accurate-rema/180602. 30.

In the future, how these systems are designed will foretell either a great renaissance or possibly something darker—a world in which human skills are passed on wholesale to machines. McCarthy’s and Engelbart’s work defined a new era in which digital computers would transform economies and societies as profoundly as did the industrial revolution. Recent experiments that guaranteed a “basic income” in the poorest part of the world may also offer a profound insight into the future of work in the face of encroaching, brilliant machines. The results of these experiments were striking because they ran counter to the popular idea that economic security undercuts the will to work. An experiment in an impoverished village in India in 2013 guaranteeing basic needs had just the opposite effect. The poor did not rest easy on their government subsidies; instead, they became more responsible and productive.

Indeed, in the decade from 2003 to 2013, the size of the U.S. workforce increased by more than 5 percent, from 131.4 million to 138.3 million—although, to be sure, this was a period during which the population grew by more than 9 percent. If not complete collapse, the slowing growth rate suggested a more turbulent and complex reality. One possibility is that rather than a pure deskilling, the changes observed may represent a broader “skill mismatch,” an interpretation that is more consistent with Keynesean expectations. For example, a recent McKinsey report on the future of work showed that between 2001 and 2009, jobs related to transactions and production both declined, but more than 4.8 million white-collar jobs were created relating to interactions and problem-solving.27 What is clear is that both blue-collar and white-collar jobs involving routinized tasks are at risk. The Financial Times reported in 2013 that between 2007 and 2012 the U.S. workforce gained 387,000 managers while losing almost two million clerical jobs.28 This is an artifact of what is popularly described as the Web 2.0 era of the Internet.


pages: 86 words: 27,453

Why We Work by Barry Schwartz

Atul Gawande, call centre, deskilling, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, if you build it, they will come, invisible hand, job satisfaction, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Silicon Valley, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Toyota Production System

ISBN 978-1-4767-8486-1 ISBN 978-1-4767-8487-8 (ebook) To Ruby, Eliza, Louis, and Nico. May your lives be full of opportunities for good work. TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION The Crucial Question EPIGRAPH CHAPTER 1 The False Rationale CHAPTER 2 When Work Is Good CHAPTER 3 How Good Work Goes Bad CHAPTER 4 The Technology of Ideas CHAPTER 5 The Future of Work ACKNOWLEDGMENTS WORKS CITED AND FURTHER READING ABOUT THE AUTHOR The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.

The idea technology that dominates our age is a fiction; it is ideology. But it is a powerful fiction, and it becomes less and less fictional as it increasingly pervades our institutions and crowds out other types of relations between us and our work. Because of its self-fulfilling character, we cannot expect this fiction to die of natural causes. To kill it, we must nourish the alternatives. And that will not be easy. 5 The Future of Work: Designing Human Nature A scorpion wants to cross the river, but it can’t swim. It goes up to a frog, who can swim, and asks for a ride. The frog says, “If I give you a ride on my back you’ll go and sting me.” The scorpion replies, “It would not be in my interest to sting you, since, as I’ll be on your back, we both would drown.” The frog thinks about this logic for a while and accepts the deal.


pages: 252 words: 78,780

Lab Rats: How Silicon Valley Made Work Miserable for the Rest of Us by Dan Lyons

Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Apple II, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, business process, call centre, Clayton Christensen, clean water, collective bargaining, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, David Heinemeier Hansson, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, hiring and firing, housing crisis, income inequality, informal economy, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, job-hopping, John Gruber, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Lean Startup, loose coupling, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, McMansion, Menlo Park, Milgram experiment, minimum viable product, Mitch Kapor, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, new economy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Paul Graham, paypal mafia, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, precariat, RAND corporation, remote working, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, Ruby on Rails, Sam Altman, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, Skype, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, software is eating the world, Stanford prison experiment, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, TaskRabbit, telemarketer, Tesla Model S, Thomas Davenport, Tony Hsieh, Toyota Production System, traveling salesman, Travis Kalanick, tulip mania, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, Y Combinator, young professional

“Workplace Surveillance: An Overview.” Labor History 51, no. 1 (2010): 87–106. https://doi.org/10.1080/00236561003654776. Beyer, Elizabeth. “Why One-Third of American Working-Age Men Could Be Displaced by Robots.” MarketWatch, May 14, 2018. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-one-third-of-american-working-age-men-could-be-displaced-by-robots-2018-05-14. Brookings. “The Future of Work: Robots, AI, and Automation.” Event held May 14, 2018. https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-future-of-work-robots-ai-and-automation. Buchanan, Jeff. “Wisconsin Company Offers to Put RFID Chips in Employees’ Bodies.” Xconomy, July 26, 2017. https://www.xconomy.com/wisconsin/2017/07/26/wisconsin-company-offers-to-put-rfid-chips-in-employees-bodies. Burt, Chris. “Nuance Voice Biometrics Solution Hits Milestone.” Biometric Update.com, January 31, 2018. https://www.biometricupdate.com/201801/nuance-voice-biometrics-solution-hits-milestone.

Sales of artificial intelligence software will grow from $8 billion in 2016 to $52 billion in 2021, according to IDC, a research firm. Sales of robotic systems will more than triple, from $65 billion in 2016 to just under $200 billion in 2021. By 2030 robots may wipe out eight hundred million jobs, roughly one-fifth of all jobs worldwide, according to McKinsey. By 2050, robots may replace one-third of American working-age men, Brookings Institution vice president Darrell West claims in his 2018 book The Future of Work: Robots, AI, and Automation. Companies love robots and AI-powered management systems. They don’t have accidents. They don’t call in sick and don’t have messy personal lives. They also don’t collect paychecks or demand health insurance and 401(k) plans. Someday, investors could create companies that might not need any flesh-and-blood humans at all. The workers would be robots, and the managers would be artificial intelligence software code.


pages: 626 words: 167,836

The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation by Carl Benedikt Frey

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, business cycle, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Clayton Christensen, collective bargaining, computer age, computer vision, Corn Laws, creative destruction, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, demographic transition, desegregation, deskilling, Donald Trump, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, factory automation, falling living standards, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, full employment, future of work, game design, Gini coefficient, Hyperloop, income inequality, income per capita, industrial cluster, industrial robot, intangible asset, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, invention of agriculture, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invention of the wheel, Isaac Newton, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, job satisfaction, job-hopping, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, labour mobility, Loebner Prize, low skilled workers, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, manufacturing employment, mass immigration, means of production, Menlo Park, minimum wage unemployment, natural language processing, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, oil shock, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, pink-collar, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, Renaissance Technologies, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, social intelligence, speech recognition, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, trade route, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Turing test, union organizing, universal basic income, washing machines reduced drudgery, wealth creators, women in the workforce, working poor, zero-sum game

.… Now, it is robots that threaten work, wages and equality.… There have been long periods of economic history in which things did not work out well, and we must wonder whether we are in another.… The Luddites and other opponents of mechanization are often portrayed as irrational enemies of progress, but they were not the people set to benefit from the new machinery, so their opposition makes sense. —ROBERT C. ALLEN, “LESSONS FROM HISTORY FOR THE FUTURE OF WORK” One of the greatest achievements of the twentieth century was unquestionably the creation of a diverse and prosperous middle class. It is therefore a matter of great concern that American society is now experiencing a dramatic decline in the fortunes of those people who might be described as middle class. The previous chapters have shown that technology played a key role in their rise.

One Bureau of Labor Statistics case study, conducted in 1960, found that “a little over 80 percent of the employees affected by the change were in routine jobs involving posting, checking, and maintaining records; filing; computing; or tabulating, keypunch, and related machine operations. The rest were mainly in administrative, supervisory, and accounting work.”46 But if there was a Nobel Prize for predicting the future of work, it should have gone to Herbert Simon for his essay titled “The Corporation: Will It Be Managed by Machines?,” first published in 1960.47 (Of course, Simon did win one in economics for his work on the decision-making process within economic organizations.) While Simon did not lay out an explicit framework, he got things spectacularly right by looking at trends in technology. He was right to think that computers would take over many routine factory and office jobs.

In the end, the only reasonable way to check whether their model or ours is preferable is how well they perform on that training set (the OECD study also used our training data set). A frequently used metric to assess this is the area under the curve (AUC), and by this measure the nonlinear model in our study is much more accurate than their linear model. For a detailed discussion of how and why these estimates differ, see also C. B. Frey and M. Osborne, 2018, “Automation and the Future of Work—Understanding the Numbers,” Oxford Martin School, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/opinion/view/404. 55. See, for example, Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn, 2016, “The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries,” table 5. 56. Council of Economic Advisers, 2016, “2016 Economic Report of the President,” chapter 5, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/ERP_2016_Chapter_5.pdf. 57.


pages: 165 words: 47,193

The End of Work: Why Your Passion Can Become Your Job by John Tamny

Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, asset allocation, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, cloud computing, commoditize, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Downton Abbey, future of work, George Gilder, haute cuisine, income inequality, Jeff Bezos, knowledge economy, Mark Zuckerberg, Peter Thiel, profit motive, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, There's no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home - Ken Olsen, trickle-down economics, universal basic income, upwardly mobile, Yogi Berra

Best of all, The End of Work pierces through all the gloom and doom surrounding current trends of automation and artificial intelligence to advance a positive vision for the future of American workers. It rests on something called Tamny’s Law, and all smart people will want to read this book to know what that is.” —James Rosen, author of The Strong Man: John Mitchell and the Secrets of Watergate and Cheney One on One “John Tamny’s The End of Work is the answer for everyone who dreads Mondays. In this entertaining book, he shows how passion is becoming the path to a paycheck. The future of work is bright!” —John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods “Professional video game players, video game coaches, NFL Insiders? John Tamny’s exciting book about the explosion of jobs that don’t feel at all like work will resonate with those fearful about the future. It’s going to be glorious.” —Adam Schefter, ESPN NFL Insider “The United States is where the world’s ambitious have long come to make their mark.

Remarkably, 70 percent of the persons in the Forbes 400 list didn’t inherit anything.39 The quickest path to pushing today’s Forbes 400 members off of the list is to let them hold onto every dime so that it can be invested in tomorrow’s entrepreneurs. Indeed, there would be no companies, no jobs, and no nonprofits if no one first created and preserved wealth. No ideology can get around that truth. So the path to the sort of jobs that combine work and passion is spending and taxing less. If politicians were to spend and tax substantially less, the future of work would be bright. CHAPTER TEN Love Your Robot, Love Your Job “I don’t really know what a vacation is. Usually, I’m so interested in what I’m doing and where I am, every night I’m making notes and keeping a record of it for myself. It’s like retirement: Some people look forward to retiring [but] I can’t imagine what that would mean.”1 —Russell Banks, novelist and travel writer In his endlessly interesting autobiography, Open, tennis great Andre Agassi explains the immense importance of a well-strung racquet.


pages: 372 words: 152

The End of Work by Jeremy Rifkin

banking crisis, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, blue-collar work, cashless society, collective bargaining, computer age, deskilling, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, employer provided health coverage, Erik Brynjolfsson, full employment, future of work, general-purpose programming language, George Gilder, global village, hiring and firing, informal economy, interchangeable parts, invention of the telegraph, Jacques de Vaucanson, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, land reform, low skilled workers, means of production, new economy, New Urbanism, Paul Samuelson, pink-collar, post-industrial society, Productivity paradox, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, strikebreaker, technoutopianism, Thorstein Veblen, Toyota Production System, trade route, trickle-down economics, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population, Works Progress Administration

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, 1993. 30. '1\pocalypse-But Not Just Now," Financial Times, January 4,1993, p. D1. 31. Drucker, p. 68. 296 Notes 32. "Life on the Leisure Track," Newsweek, June 14, 1993, p. 48. 33. "From Coast to Coast, from Affluent to Poor, Poll Shows Anxiety Over Jobs," New York Times, March 11, 1994, p. AI. CHAPTER 2 1. Bell, John Fred, A History of Economic Thought, (New York: Ronald Press Co., 1985), pp. 285-286. 2. Jones, Barry, Sleepers Wake! Technology and the Future of Work (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1982), p. 2$ Standing, Guy, "The Notion of Technological Unemployment," International Labour Review, March/April1984, p. 131, 3. McLellan, David, tr., Marxs Grundrisse der Kritik der Politischen Okonomie (New York: Harpers, 1977) pp. 162-163. 4. Clark, John Bates, Essentials of Economic Theory (London, 1907) p. 452. 5. Leiserson, William M., "The Problem of Unemployment Today," Political Science Quarterly 31, March 1916, p. 12. 6.

Masuda, Yoneji, The Information Society as Post-Industrial Society (Bethesda, MD: World Future Society, 1981), p. 49. 20. Kurzweil, p. 186. 21. Ceruzzi, Paul, ''An Unforeseen Revolution: Computers and Expectations, 1935-1985," in Corn, Joseph J., Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology, and the American Future (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1986), P·19 0 . 22. Ibid., PP.190-191. 23. Jones, Barry, Sleepers, Wake: Technology and the Future of Work (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990), pp. 104-105' 24. "The First Automation," American Machinist, December 1990, p. 6; Noble, p.67· 25. ''Automatic Factory," Fortune, November 1946, p. 160. 26. "Machines Without Men," Fortune, November 1946, p. 204. 302 Notes 27. Noble, p. 25· 28. Business Week, January 1946, cited in "The End of Corporate Liberalism: Class Struggle in the Electrical Manufacturing Industry 1933-50," Radical America, July- August 1975. 29· Noble, p. 249. 30.

Masuda, Yoneji, The Information Society as Post-Industrial Society (Washington, D.G: World Future Society, 1981), p. 74. 4. Society for the Reduction of Human Labor Newsletter, Hunnicutt, Benjamin Kline, and McGaughey, William, eds., Winter 1992-1993, vol. 3 #1, P.14. 5. Schor, Juliet, The Overworked American: The Unexpected Decline of Leisure (New York: Basic Books, 1991) pp. 1, 2, 5, 29, 32. 6. Jones, Barry, Sleepers Wake! Technology and the Future of Work (New York: Oxford University Press, 1982), ch. 9. 7. Interview, March 18, 1994. Former Senator Eugene McCarthy argues that in the emerging high-tech era, the need to redistribute work becomes the essential battle cry of the forces fighting for economic justice. "What you have to look to," says McCarthy, "is a redistribution of work, through which you establish a claim to what is being produced." 8.


pages: 326 words: 91,559

Everything for Everyone: The Radical Tradition That Is Shaping the Next Economy by Nathan Schneider

1960s counterculture, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, altcoin, Amazon Mechanical Turk, back-to-the-land, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, Clayton Christensen, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate governance, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Debian, disruptive innovation, do-ocracy, Donald Knuth, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Food sovereignty, four colour theorem, future of work, gig economy, Google bus, hydraulic fracturing, Internet Archive, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, Lyft, M-Pesa, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, means of production, multi-sided market, new economy, offshore financial centre, old-boy network, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, post-work, precariat, premature optimization, pre–internet, profit motive, race to the bottom, Richard Florida, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sam Altman, Satoshi Nakamoto, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Slavoj Žižek, smart contracts, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, transaction costs, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, underbanked, undersea cable, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, Vanguard fund, white flight, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, working poor, Y Combinator, Y2K, Zipcar

The evidence, anyway, doesn’t fully agree that the wonders of automation are doing away with jobs on their own. Productivity growth has been sluggish by historical standards in the United States, and a decade after the 2008 crash, job numbers are back up. The trouble is, those jobs are less secure or reliable than before, and the owners are taking more of the spoils. More than machines replacing humans, the new jobs seem to expect humans to act like machines.21 Perhaps the real visionaries of the future of work are not the app makers but those organizing co-ops in the fast-growing care sectors, ensuring that the most difficult work remains accountable to flesh and blood and heart. If the cooperative legacy did not exist, their task might seem insurmountable. But it’s really no worse than hard. As the stories I’ve told in this book declare, cooperation is no drop-in solution-for-everything. It’s a process that happens a million ways at once, a diversified democracy.

In addition to people profiled herein, these guides include (but are not limited to) Nicole Alix, Martijn Arets, Ahmed Attia, Devin Balkind, Kaeleigh Barker Van Valkenburgh, Harriet Barlow, Paul Bindel, Joseph Blasi, David Bollier, Becks Boone, Jennifer Briggs, Greg Brodsky, Howard Brodsky, Alexa Clay, Nithin Coca, Matt Cropp, Brendan Denovan, Avery Edenfield, Hanan El Youssef, Laura Flanders, Natalie Foster, Karen Gargamelli, Shamika Goddard, Marina Gorbis, Jonathan Gordon-Farleigh, Jessica Gordon Nembhard, Neal Gorenflo, Stephanie Guico, Yessica Holguin, Jen Horonjeff, Sara Horowitz, Brent Hueth, Alanna Irving, Camille Kerr, Ben Knight, Corey Kohn, Marcia Lee, Rhys Lindmark, Pia Mancini, Annie McShiras, Micky Metts, Melina Morrison, Doug O’Brien, Janelle Orsi, Linda Phillips, Ludovica Rogers, Douglas Rushkoff, Caroline Savery, Trebor Scholz, Adam Schwartz, Zane Selvans, Palak Shah, Nuno Silva, Danny Spitzberg, Armin Steuernagel, Bill Stevenson, Michelle Sturm, Keith Taylor, Stacco Troncoso, Sandeep Vaheesan, Margaret Vincent, Halisi Vinson, Tom Webb, Jason Wiener, Elandria Williams, Felipe Witchger, and Erik Olin Wright. May what I’ve gleaned from you be of use. Nathan Schneider is a professor of media studies at the University of Colorado Boulder. He is the author, most recently, of Thank You, Anarchy: Notes from the Occupy Apocalypse and coeditor of Ours to Hack and to Own: The Rise of Platform Cooperativism, a New Vision for the Future of Work and a Fairer Internet. Illustration Credits All photographs were taken by me in the course of reporting. For charts, maps, and other graphics, I draw from the following sources, with permission from relevant organizations. Here Liberty Distributors, Policies and Procedures (December 1978). Here James Peter Warbasse, Cooperative Democracy Through Voluntary Association of the People as Consumers, 3rd ed.

Nathan Schneider, “Owning Is the New Sharing,” Shareable (December 21, 2014); Trebor Scholz, “Platform Cooperativism vs. the Sharing Economy” (December 5, 2014), medium.com/@trebors/platform-cooperativism-vs-the-sharing-economy-2ea737f1b5ad. See also Scholz’s subsequent, fuller account of the concept in his pamphlet Platform Cooperativism: Challenging the Corporate Sharing Economy (Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung, 2016), as well as the collective manifesto he and I coedited, Ours to Hack and to Own: The Rise of Platform Cooperativism, a New Vision for the Future of Work and a Fairer Internet (OR Books, 2016). Scholz also writes at length about platform cooperativism in Uberworked and Underpaid: How Workers Are Disrupting the Digital Economy (Polity, 2017). Douglas Rushkoff, the concluding speaker at the 2015 Platform Cooperativism conference, advocates the model in Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus: How Growth Became the Enemy of Prosperity (Portfolio, 2016). 17.


pages: 366 words: 94,209

Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus: How Growth Became the Enemy of Prosperity by Douglas Rushkoff

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrew Keen, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, business process, buy and hold, buy low sell high, California gold rush, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, centralized clearinghouse, citizen journalism, clean water, cloud computing, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, colonial exploitation, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate personhood, corporate raider, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, disintermediation, diversified portfolio, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, fiat currency, Firefox, Flash crash, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global village, Google bus, Howard Rheingold, IBM and the Holocaust, impulse control, income inequality, index fund, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, loss aversion, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, medical bankruptcy, minimum viable product, Mitch Kapor, Naomi Klein, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, passive investing, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, recommendation engine, reserve currency, RFID, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social graph, software patent, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, trade route, transportation-network company, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, unpaid internship, Y Combinator, young professional, zero-sum game, Zipcar

* Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams’s widely read book Wikinomics points to Wikipedia as a new model for mass collaboration and value creation online. They go on to credit Amazon Mechanical Turk with creating valuable new opportunities for the next generation of digital workers. * I have been participating in the Open Society’s “Future of Work” initiative, and the labor theorists, union leaders, and futurists in attendance—arguably the world’s experts on the future of work—can’t even agree on the parameters for defining a “job” from this point forward. * The places in the world where subsistence agriculture is no longer possible are themselves largely the victims of colonialism, global market inequities, or Western-owned factory pollution. By most responsibly derived accounts, we have more than enough bounty for the entire globe

., 229 Circuit City, 90 Citizens United case, 72 Claritas, 32 click workers, 50 climate change, 135, 227–28, 237 coin of the realm, 128–29 collaboration as corporate strategy, 106–7 colonialism, 71–72 commons, 215–23 co-owned networks and, 220–23 history of, 215–16 projects inspired by, 217–18 successful, elements of, 216–17 tragedy of, 215–16 worker-owned collectives and, 219–20 competencies, of corporations, 79–80 Connect+Develop, 107 Consumer Electronics Show, 19 Consumer Reports,33 contracting with small and medium-sized enterprises, 112 cooperative currencies, 160–65 favor banks, 161 LETS (Local Exchange Trading System), 163–65 time dollar systems, 161–63 co-owned networks, 220–23 corporations, 68–82 acquisition of startups, growth through, 78 amplifying effect of, 70, 73 Big Shift and, 76 cash holdings of, 76, 77–78 competency of, 79–80 cost reduction, growth through, 79–80 decentralized autonomous corporations (DACs), 149–50 Deloitte’s study of return on assets (ROA) of, 76–77 distributive alternative to platform monopolies, 93–97 evaluation of, 69–74 extractive nature of, 71–72, 73, 74, 75, 80–82 growth targets, meeting, 68–69 income inequality and, 81–82 limits to corporate model, 75–76, 80–82 managerial and financial methods to deliver growth by, 77–79 monopolies (See monopolies) obsolescence created by, 70–71, 73 offshoring and, 78–79 personhood of, 72, 73–74, 90, 91 recoding of, 93–97, 125–26 repatriation and, 80 retrieval of values of empire and, 71–72, 73 as steady-state enterprises, 97–123 Costco, 74 cost reduction, and corporate growth, 79–80 Couchsurfing.com, 46 crashes of 1929, 99 of 2007, 133–34 biotech crash, of 1987, 6 flash crash, 180 Creative Commons, 215 creative destruction, 83–87 credit, 132–33 credit-card companies, 143–44 crowdfunding, 38–39, 198–201 crowdsharing apps, 45–49 crowdsourcing platforms, 49–50 Crusades, 16 Cumbrian Pounds, 156 Curitiba, Brazil modified LETS program, 164–65 Daly, Herman, 184 data big, 39–44 getting paid for our own, 44–45 “likes” economy and, 32, 34–36 in pre-digital era, 40 Datalogix, 32 da Vinci, Leonardo, 236 debt, 152–54 decentralized autonomous corporations (DACs), 149–50 deflation, 169 Dell, 115–16 Dell, Michael, 115–16 Deloitte Center for the Edge, 76–77 destructive destruction, 100 Detroit Dollars, 156 digital distributism, 224–39 artisanal era mechanisms and values retrieved by, 233–34 developing distributive businesses, 237–38 digital industrialism compared, 226 digital technology and, 230–31 historical ideals of distributism, 228–30 leftism, distinguished, 231 Pope Francis’s encyclical espousing distributed approach to land, labor and capital, 227–28 Renaissance era values, rebirth of, 235–37 subsidiarity and, 231–32 sustainable prosperity as goal of, 226–27 digital economy, 7–11 big data and, 39–44 destabilizing form of digitally accelerated capitalism, creation of, 9–10 digital marketplace, development of, 24–30 digital transaction networks and, 140–51 disproportionate relationship between capital and value in, 9 distributism and, 224–39 externalizing cost of replacing employees in, 14–15 industrialism and, 13–16, 23–24, 44, 53–54, 93, 101–2, 201, 214, 226 industrial society, distinguished, 11 “likes” and similar metrics, economy of, 30–39 platform monopolies and, 82–93, 101 digital industrialism, 13–16, 23–24, 101–2, 201 digital distributism compared, 226 diminishing returns of, 93 externalizing costs and, 14–15 growth agenda and, 14–15, 23–24 human data as commodity under, 44 income disparity and, 53–54 labor and land pushed to unbound extremes by, 214 “likes” economy and, 33 reducing bottom line as means of creating illusion of growth and, 14 digital marketplace, 24–30 early stages of e-commerce, 25–26 highly centralized sales platforms of, 29 initial treatment of Internet as commons, 25 “long tail” of widespread digital access and, 26 positive reinforcement feedback loop and, 28 power-law dynamics and, 26–29 removal of humans from selection process in, 28 digital transaction networks, 140–51 Bitcoin, 143–49, 150–51, 152 blockchains and, 144–51 central authorities, dependence on, 142 decentralized autonomous corporations (DACs) and, 149–50 PayPal, 140–41 theft and, 142 direct public offerings (DPOs), 205–6 discount brokerages, 176–78 diversification, 208, 211 dividends, 113–14, 208–10 dividend traps, 113 Dorsey, Jack, 191–92 Draw Something, 192, 193 Drexler, Mickey, 116 dual transformation, 108–9 dumbwaiter effect, 19 Dutch East India Company, 71, 89, 131 eBay, 16, 26, 29, 45, 140 education industry, 95–97 Eisenhower administration, 52–53, 63, 75 Elberse, Anita, 28 employee-owned companies, 116–18 Enron, 133, 171n Eroski, 220 eSignal, 178 EthicalBay, 221 E*Trade, 176, 177 Etsy, 16, 26, 30 expense reduction, and corporate growth, 78–79 Facebook, 4, 31, 83, 93, 96, 201 data gathering and sales by, 41, 44 innovation by acquisition of startups, 78 IPO of, 192–93, 195 psychological experiments conducted on users by, 32–33 factors of production, 212–14 Fairmondo, 221 Family Assistance Plan, 63 family businesses, 103–4, 231–32 FarmVille, 192 favor banks, 161 Febreze Set & Refresh, 108 Federal Reserve, 137–38 feedback loop, and positive reinforcement, 28 Ferriss, Tim, 201 feudalism, 17 financial services industry, 131–33, 171–73, 175 Fisher, Irving, 158 flash crash, 180 flexible purpose corporations, 119–20 flow, investing in, 208–10 Forbes,88, 173, 174 40-hour workweek, reduction of, 58–60 401(k) plans, 171–74 Francis, Pope, 227, 228, 234 Free, Libre, Open Knowledge (FLOK) program, 217–18 Free (Anderson), 33 free money theory, local currencies based on, 156–59 barter exchanges, 159 during Great Depression, 158–59 self-help cooperatives, 159 stamp scrip, 158–59 tax anticipation scrip, 159 Wörgls, 157–58 frenzy, 98–99 Fried, Jason, 59 Friedman, Milton, 64 Friendster, 31 Frito-Lay, 80 front running, 180–81 Fulfillment by Amazon, 89 Fureai Kippu (Caring Relationship Tickets), 162 Future of Work initiative, 56n Gallo, Riso, 103–4 Gap, 116 Gates, Bill, 186 General Electric, 132 General Public License (GPL) for software, 216 Gesell, Silvio, 157 GI Bill, 99 Gimein, Mark, 147 Gini coefficient of income inequality, 81–82, 92 global warming, 135, 227–28, 237 GM, 80 Goldman Sachs, 133, 195 gold standard, 139 Google, 8, 48, 78, 83, 90–91, 93, 141, 218 acquisitions by, 191 business model of, 37 data sales by, 37, 44 innovation by acquisition of startups, 78 IPO of, 194–95 protests against, 1–3, 5, 98–99 grain receipts, 128 great decoupling, 53 Great Depression, 137, 158–59 Great Exhibition, 1851, 19 Greenspan, Alan, 132–33 growth, 1–11 bazaars, and economic expansion in late Middle Ages, 16–18 central currency and, 126, 129–31, 133–36 digital industrialism, growth agenda of, 14–15, 23–24 highly centralized e-commerce platforms and, 29 startups, hypergrowth expected of, 187–91 as trap (See growth trap) growth trap, 4–5, 68–123 central currency as core mechanism of, 133–34 corporations as program and, 68–82 platform monopolies and, 82–93, 101 recoding corporate model and, 93–97 steady-state enterprises and, 98–123 guaranteed minimum income programs, 62–65 guaranteed minimum wage public jobs, 65–66 guilds, 17 Hagel, John, 76–77 Hardin, Garrett, 215–16 Harvard Business Review,108–9 Heiferman, Scott, 196–97 Henry VIII, King, 215, 229 Hewlett-Packard UK, 112 high-frequency trading (HFT), 179–80 Hilton, 115 Hobby Lobby case, 72 Hoffman, Reid, 61 Holland, Addie Rose, 205–6 holograms, 235 Homeport New Orleans, 121 housing industry, 135 Huffington, Arianna, 34, 35, 201 Huffington Post, 34, 201 human role in economy, 13–67 aristocracy’s efforts to control peasant economy, 17–18 bazaars and, 16–18 big data and, 39–44 chartered monopolies and, 18 decreasing employment and, 30–39 digital marketplace, impact of, 24–30 industrialism and, 13–16, 18–24, 44 “likes” economy and, 30–39 reevaluation of employment and adopting policies to decrease it and, 54–67 sharing economy and, 44–54 Hurwitz, Charles, 117 IBM, 90–91, 112 inclusive capitalism, 111–12 income disparity corporate model and, 81–82 digital technology as accelerating, 53–54 Gini coefficient of, 81–82, 92 growth trap and, 4 power-law dynamics and, 27–28, 30 public service options for reducing, 65–66 IndieGogo, 30, 199 individual retirement accounts (IRAs), 171 industrial farming, 134–35 industrialism, 18–24 branding and, 20 digital, 13–16, 23–24, 44, 53–54, 93, 101–2, 201, 214, 226 disempowerment of workers and, 18–19 human connection between producer and consumer, loss of, 19–20 isolation of human consumers from one another and, 20–21 mass marketing and, 19–20 mass media and, 20–21 purpose of, 18–19, 22 value system of, 18–19 inflation, 169 Instagram, 31 Intercontinental Exchange, 182 interest, 129–31 investors/investing, 70, 72, 168–223 algorithmic trading and, 179–84 bounded, 210–15 commons model for running businesses and, 215–23 crowdfunding and, 198–201 derivative finance, volume of, 182 digital technology and, 169–70, 175–84 direct public offerings (DPOs) and, 205–6 discount brokerages and, 176–78 diversification and, 208, 211 dividends and, 208–10 flow, investing in, 208–10 high-frequency trading (HFT) and, 179–80 in low-interest rate environment, 169–70 microfinancing platforms and, 202–4 platform cooperatives and, 220–23 poor performance of do-it-yourself traders and, 177–78 retirement savings and, 170–75 startups and, 184–205 ventureless capital and, 196–205 irruption, 98 i-traffic, 196 iTunes, 27, 29, 34, 89 J.


pages: 168 words: 50,647

The End of Jobs: Money, Meaning and Freedom Without the 9-To-5 by Taylor Pearson

"side hustle", Airbnb, barriers to entry, Ben Horowitz, Black Swan, call centre, cloud computing, commoditize, creative destruction, David Heinemeier Hansson, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Google Hangouts, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market fragmentation, means of production, Oculus Rift, passive income, passive investing, Peter Thiel, remote working, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, sharing economy, side project, Silicon Valley, Skype, software as a service, software is eating the world, Startup school, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, telemarketer, Thomas Malthus, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, unpaid internship, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web application, Whole Earth Catalog

These significant trends are also all accelerating. At some point, the two will intersect. The scarce resource—entrepreneurship—can be invested in more easily than ever. You are now sitting at a nexus where your cost basis is very low, but your profits are very high if you’re an entrepreneur. Let’s look more closely at what those profits look like. Section 5: Entrepreneurship Is More Profitable than Ever The Future of Work “I don’t think of work as work or play as play. It’s all just living.” Richard Branson A Brief History of Work and Jobs If we look at modern day pre-neolithic, hunter/gatherer groups, they don’t “have jobs” or “do work” in the sense we think about them today. They did what they have to do to survive and different members have different roles. These roles aren’t seen as a disutility, something to actively be avoided that should be balanced by utilities, or things we want to do.

What that act is for each individual is different. The opportunity for our generation is that the tools to do the deed, to generate the work, to go out into the world and create, have never been more accessible, safer. For the first time in human history, the pursuit of money, meaning, and freedom through entrepreneurship are more profitable and synergistic than ever before. Conclusion The Future of Work Many people I talked to in the process of writing this asked me, do you really think that’s happening? You really think that we’re moving into this amazing period of freedom and wealth as entrepreneurs? The short answer: maybe. I don’t believe this is a future that will create itself. The opportunity is real. I’ve seen and talked with hundreds people that have grabbed it. But, it’s one of many possible futures.


pages: 411 words: 98,128

Bezonomics: How Amazon Is Changing Our Lives and What the World's Best Companies Are Learning From It by Brian Dumaine

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, AI winter, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Atul Gawande, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, call centre, Chris Urmson, cloud computing, corporate raider, creative destruction, Danny Hillis, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, gig economy, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, income inequality, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, money market fund, natural language processing, pets.com, plutocrats, Plutocrats, race to the bottom, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Snapchat, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, supply-chain management, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, wealth creators, web application, Whole Earth Catalog

In 1961, a California start-up: David Laws, “Fairchild Semiconductor: The 60th Anniversary of a Silicon Valley Legend,” Computer History Museum, September 19, 2017. Tim Berners-Lee, a computer scientist: “World Wide Web,” Encyclopaedia Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/topic/World-Wide-Web. The consulting firm McKinsey: James Manyika et al., “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: What the Future of Work Will Mean for Jobs, Skills and Wages,” McKinsey Global Institute, November 2017. McKinsey is also quick to point out: James Manyika and Kevin Sneader, “AI, Automation, and the Future of Work: Ten Things to Solve For,” McKinsey Global Institute, June 2018. Daniel Susskind of Oxford: Geoff Colvin, “How Automation Is Cutting into Workers’ Share of Economic Output,” Fortune, July 8, 2019. After the company bought Kiva: Evelyn M. Rusli, “Amazon.com to Acquire Manufacturer of Robotics,” New York Times, March 19, 2012.

Daniel Susskind of Oxford University has proposed an economic model that is centered on a new kind of capital, which he calls “advanced capital.” It is advanced in the sense that it is an investment designed to totally displace labor. His model leads to a scenario in which “wages decline to zero.” His thinking is not yet mainstream, but it is chilling just to contemplate. To better understand how Amazon’s automation threatens the future of work, I visited one of its vast warehouses in Kent, Washington. Anyone who has ever spent time at one of Amazon’s fulfillment centers—as the company calls them—will find that the work there is anything but fulfilling. The Kent facility on the outskirts of Seattle employs two thousand people and sprawls over 815,000 square feet. But that number is deceiving because the warehouse operates on four stories, meaning that it really covers 2 million square feet, an area that would spread out over 46 acres.


pages: 285 words: 58,517

The Network Imperative: How to Survive and Grow in the Age of Digital Business Models by Barry Libert, Megan Beck

active measures, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, business intelligence, call centre, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, commoditize, crowdsourcing, disintermediation, diversification, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, future of work, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Infrastructure as a Service, intangible asset, Internet of things, invention of writing, inventory management, iterative process, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, late fees, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, Oculus Rift, pirate software, ride hailing / ride sharing, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, software as a service, software patent, Steve Jobs, subscription business, TaskRabbit, Travis Kalanick, uber lyft, Wall-E, women in the workforce, Zipcar

Ernst & Young, Study: Work-Life Challenges across Generations, http://www.ey.com/US/en/About-us/Our-people-and-culture/EY-work-life-challenges-across-generations-global-study. 3. Rena Rasch, “Your Best Workers May Not Be Your Employees,” IBM Smarter Workforce Institute, October 2014, http://www-01.ibm.com/common/ssi/cgi-bin/ssialias?infotype=SA&subtype=WH&htmlfid=LOL14027USEN. 4. Adam Davidson, “What Hollywood Can Teach Us About the Future of Work,” On Money, New York Times, May 5, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/10/magazine/what-hollywood-can-teach-us-about-the-future-of-work.html?_r=0. 5. Amy Adkins, “Majority of U.S. Employees Not Engaged Despite Gains in 2014,” Gallup, January 28, 2015, http://www.gallup.com/poll/181289/majority-employees-not-engaged-despite-gains-2014.aspx. 6. Tammy Erickson, “The Rise of the New Contract Worker,” HBR.org, September 7, 2012, https://hbr.org/2012/09/the-rise-of-the-new-contract-worker/. 7.


pages: 164 words: 57,068

The Second Curve: Thoughts on Reinventing Society by Charles Handy

"Robert Solow", Airbnb, basic income, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, bonus culture, British Empire, call centre, Clayton Christensen, corporate governance, delayed gratification, Diane Coyle, disruptive innovation, Edward Snowden, falling living standards, future of work, G4S, greed is good, informal economy, Internet of things, invisible hand, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, late capitalism, mass immigration, megacity, mittelstand, Occupy movement, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Ronald Coase, shareholder value, sharing economy, Skype, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, transaction costs, Veblen good, Walter Mischel

His many books include The Empty Raincoat, Understanding Organizations, Gods of Management, The Future of Work and Waiting for the Mountain to Move. He and his wife Elizabeth live in London and Norfolk. Also by Charles Handy The New Philanthropists (with Elizabeth Handy) Myself and Other More Important Matters Reinvented Lives (with Elizabeth Handy) The Elephant and the Flea Thoughts for the Day (previously published as Waiting for the Mountain to Move) The New Alchemists (with Elizabeth Handy) The Hungry Spirit Beyond Certainty The Empty Raincoat Inside Organizations The Age of Unreason Understanding Voluntary Organizations Understanding Schools as Organizations The Future of Work Gods of Management Understanding Organizations The Second Curve Thoughts on Reinventing Society Charles Handy To my grandchildren Leo, Sam, Nephele, Scarlett who will have to live and work in the world I am envisaging.


pages: 223 words: 58,732

The Retreat of Western Liberalism by Edward Luce

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, affirmative action, Airbnb, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, business cycle, call centre, carried interest, centre right, Charles Lindbergh, cognitive dissonance, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, computer age, corporate raider, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, George Santayana, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, global supply chain, illegal immigration, imperial preference, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, knowledge economy, lateral thinking, liberal capitalism, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, moral panic, more computing power than Apollo, mutually assured destruction, new economy, New Urbanism, Norman Mailer, offshore financial centre, one-China policy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, precariat, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, reshoring, Richard Florida, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, software is eating the world, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, superstar cities, telepresence, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, unpaid internship, Washington Consensus, We are the 99%, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, white flight, World Values Survey, Yogi Berra

The left urges incremental steps such as better worker training, smarter schools and infrastructure. These are worthy causes. But they are a bit like prescribing aspirin for cancer. Before her ill-fated run for the presidency, Hillary Clinton was asked about rising structural unemployment: ‘I don’t have a quick glib answer for you. There are no easy fixes.’ Even the non-populist right has thrown up its hands. In its study of the future of work, the laissez-faire Baker Institute admitted it had been ‘unable to find any solutions based on the free market’. Karl Marx predicted that capitalism would push the workers of the world to unite. He got it back to front. It is the elites who are loosening their allegiances and workers who are reaching for national flags. This is hardly a vision of social peace. ‘The rich will live in gated communities, and secure compounds, that are protected by drones and connected by driverless cars,’ predict Yascha Mounk and Lee Drutman, two of the sharpest political scientists around.

It is also about purpose and self-respect. Idleness is a soul-destroyer. Depression, divorce, despair and suicide all soar after six months of not working. Champions of UBI depict it as a magic wand for the complex problems we face. I fear it would help bring about a kind of Hunger Games, in which the poor are kept afloat while sating themselves on dog-eat-dog reality entertainment. UBI is also silent on the future of work. We must think more radically than that. We must also bear in mind that anything we do will have global spillover effects. The developing world is making most of the capital goods that are used to displace the jobs of the middle-income people in the developed world. Their work is now increasingly devoted to looking after the rich.9 Should we still cling to the idea that sending everybody to university is a solution?


pages: 416 words: 112,268

Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control by Stuart Russell

3D printing, Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Alfred Russel Wallace, Andrew Wiles, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, blockchain, brain emulation, Cass Sunstein, Claude Shannon: information theory, complexity theory, computer vision, connected car, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ernest Rutherford, Flash crash, full employment, future of work, Gerolamo Cardano, ImageNet competition, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of the wheel, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Mark Zuckerberg, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, NP-complete, openstreetmap, P = NP, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, Pierre-Simon Laplace, positional goods, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, profit maximization, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, RFID, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, social intelligence, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, superintelligent machines, Thales of Miletus, The Future of Employment, Thomas Bayes, Thorstein Veblen, transport as a service, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, uranium enrichment, Von Neumann architecture, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web application, zero-sum game

Announcement of a large-scale drone swarm experiment: US Department of Defense, “Department of Defense announces successful micro-drone demonstration,” news release no. NR-008-17, January 9, 2017. 16. Examples of research centers studying the impact of technology on employment are the Work and Intelligent Tools and Systems group at Berkeley, the Future of Work and Workers project at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford, and the Future of Work Initiative at Carnegie Mellon University. 17. A pessimistic take on future technological unemployment: Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future (Basic Books, 2015). 18. Calum Chace, The Economic Singularity: Artificial Intelligence and the Death of Capitalism (Three Cs, 2016). 19. For an excellent collection of essays, see Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, eds., The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019). 20.

Chace, in The Economic Singularity, calls the “paradise” version of UBI the Star Trek economy, noting that in the more recent series of Star Trek episodes, money has been abolished because technology has created essentially unlimited material goods and energy. He also points to the massive changes in economic and social organization that will be needed to make such a system successful. 31. The economist Richard Baldwin also predicts a future of personal services in his book The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work (Oxford University Press, 2019). 32. The book that is viewed as having exposed the failure of “whole-word” literacy education and launched decades of struggle between the two main schools of thought on reading: Rudolf Flesch, Why Johnny Can’t Read: And What You Can Do about It (Harper & Bros., 1955). 33. On educational methods that enable the recipient to adapt to the rapid rate of technological and economic change in the next few decades: Joseph Aoun, Robot-Proof: Higher Education in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (MIT Press, 2017). 34.


pages: 219 words: 63,495

50 Future Ideas You Really Need to Know by Richard Watson

23andMe, 3D printing, access to a mobile phone, Albert Einstein, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, BRICs, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, clean water, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, computer age, computer vision, crowdsourcing, dark matter, dematerialisation, digital Maoism, digital map, Elon Musk, energy security, failed state, future of work, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, germ theory of disease, global pandemic, happiness index / gross national happiness, hive mind, hydrogen economy, Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, life extension, Mark Shuttleworth, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, peak oil, personalized medicine, phenotype, precision agriculture, profit maximization, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Florida, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, semantic web, Skype, smart cities, smart meter, smart transportation, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, strong AI, Stuxnet, supervolcano, telepresence, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, Turing test, urban decay, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web application, women in the workforce, working-age population, young professional

Txteagle sends small jobs to anyone with access to a cell phone. The jobs are tiny—little bits of translation, a quick market research survey, or a handful of images to be tagged—each of which pays just a few cents each. To some extent, Jana is simply a tale of a savvy entrepreneur and the way companies are chopping up big tasks into small bits, aided by technology. But it’s also a story about the future of work, especially the way in which independent or freelance workers are taking over from salaried employees. According to the US Government Accountability Office, such jobs—“contingent workers” in jargon-speak—already make up a third of the US workforce. This trend is starting to make some people rethink what a job actually is or could be in the future. Of course, a job is more than just a series of tasks.

So if employers break up each position into a series of projects or tasks, they run the risk of threatening both. Jobs also provide legal security, healthcare, pensions and other benefits. Or at least they used to. “The best way to appreciate your job is to imagine yourself without one.” Oscar Wilde, writer and poet But beyond considering why people need work it’s worth pausing to consider what else will affect the future of work and how the nature of jobs themselves will change. The list of factors impacting on work is a long one, and includes: globalization, automation, digitalization, artificial intelligence, workforce aging, skilled labor shortages, job mobility, open collaboration, outsourcing, transparency, business ethics, educational practices, regulatory changes, fluid networks, resource shortages, climate change, shifts in organizational structures and the impact of more women in the workforce.


pages: 533

Future Politics: Living Together in a World Transformed by Tech by Jamie Susskind

3D printing, additive manufacturing, affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, airport security, Andrew Keen, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, automated trading system, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, bitcoin, blockchain, brain emulation, British Empire, business process, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cashless society, Cass Sunstein, cellular automata, cloud computing, computer age, computer vision, continuation of politics by other means, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, digital map, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Filter Bubble, future of work, Google bus, Google X / Alphabet X, Googley, industrial robot, informal economy, intangible asset, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, invention of writing, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, lifelogging, Metcalfe’s law, mittelstand, more computing power than Apollo, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, night-watchman state, Oculus Rift, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, pattern recognition, payday loans, price discrimination, price mechanism, RAND corporation, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, road to serfdom, Robert Mercer, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, selection bias, self-driving car, sexual politics, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, smart contracts, Snapchat, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, technological singularity, the built environment, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas L Friedman, universal basic income, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, working-age population

Elizabeth Anderson, Private Government: How Employers Rule Our Lives (and Why We Don’t Talk About It) (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2017), 2. 20. Cathy O’Neil, Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy (New York: Crown, 2016), 114. 21. O’Neil, Weapons, 120. 22. Laurence Mills, ‘Numbers, Data and Algorithms: Why HR Professionals and Employment Lawyers Should Take Data Science and Analytics Seriously’, Future of Work Hub, 4 April 2017 <http:// www.futureofworkhub.info/comment/2017/4/4/numbers-dataand-algorithms-why-hr-professionals-and-employment-lawyersshould-take-data-science-seriously> (accessed 1 December 2017); Ifeoma Ajunwa, Kate Crawford, and Jason Schultz, ‘Limitless Worker Surveillance’, California Law Review 105, no. 3, 13 March 2016 <https:// OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 30/05/18, SPi РЕЛИЗ ПОДГОТОВИЛА ГРУППА "What's News" VK.COM/WSNWS Notes 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 419 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?

Allen, Technology and Inequality, Kindle Locations 379–81. 52. Brian Merchant, ‘Fully Automated Luxury Communism’, The Guardian, 18 March 2015 <https://www.theguardian.com/sustainablebusiness/2015/mar/18/fully-automated-luxury-communismrobots-employment> (accessed 8 December 2017). 53. Trebor Scholz and Nathan Schneider, eds., Ours to Hack and to Own: The Rise of Platform Cooperativism, a New Vision for the Future of Work and a Fairer Internet (New York: OR Books/Counterpoint, 2017). 54. Francis Fukuyama, The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution (London: Profile Books, 2012), 66. 55. Parmy Olson, ‘Meet Improbable, the Startup Building the World’s Most Powerful Simulations’, Forbes, 15 June 2015 <https://www. forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/2015/05/27/improbable-startupsimulations/#6ae2da044045> (accessed 8 December 2017). 56.

Project Gutenberg <https://www.gutenberg.org/files/5669/5669-h/5669h.htm> (accessed 1 Dec. 2017). Miller, David, ed. The Liberty Reader. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2006. Miller, David and Larry Siedentop, eds. The Nature of Political Theory. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1983. Mills, Laurence. ‘Numbers, Data and Algorithms—Why HR Professionals and Employment Lawyers Should Take Data Science and Analytics Seriously’. Future of Work Hub, 4 Apr. 2017 <http://www.futureofworkhub.info/comment/2017/4/4/numbers-data-and-algorithmswhy-hr-professionals-and-employment-lawyers-should-take-data-­ science-seriously> (accessed 1 Dec. 2017). Millward, David. ‘How Ford Will create a new generation of driverless cars’. Telegraph, 27 Feb. 2017 <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/ 2017/02/27/ford-seeks-pioneer-new-generation-driverless-cars/> (accessed 28 Nov. 2017).


pages: 396 words: 117,149

The Master Algorithm: How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World by Pedro Domingos

Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Arthur Eddington, basic income, Bayesian statistics, Benoit Mandelbrot, bioinformatics, Black Swan, Brownian motion, cellular automata, Claude Shannon: information theory, combinatorial explosion, computer vision, constrained optimization, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, data is the new oil, double helix, Douglas Hofstadter, Erik Brynjolfsson, experimental subject, Filter Bubble, future of work, global village, Google Glasses, Gödel, Escher, Bach, information retrieval, job automation, John Markoff, John Snow's cholera map, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, lone genius, mandelbrot fractal, Mark Zuckerberg, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Narrative Science, Nate Silver, natural language processing, Netflix Prize, Network effects, NP-complete, off grid, P = NP, PageRank, pattern recognition, phenotype, planetary scale, pre–internet, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Richard Feynman, scientific worldview, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, speech recognition, Stanford marshmallow experiment, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, superintelligent machines, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, theory of mind, Thomas Bayes, transaction costs, Turing machine, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, white flight, zero-sum game

It doesn’t take much to avoid these fiascoes. In fact, all it takes is to read this book. If you’re a citizen or policy maker concerned with the social and political issues raised by big data and machine learning, this book will give you a primer on the technology—what it is, where it’s taking us, what it does and doesn’t make possible—without boring you with all the ins and outs. From privacy to the future of work and the ethics of roboticized warfare, we’ll see where the real issues are and how to think about them. If you’re a scientist or engineer, machine learning is a powerful armory that you don’t want to be without. The old, tried-and-true statistical tools don’t get you far in the age of big (or even medium) data. You need machine learning’s nonlinear chops to accurately model most phenomena, and it brings with it a new scientific worldview.

Whether you read this book out of curiosity or professional interest, I hope you will share what you’ve learned with your friends and colleagues. Machine learning touches the lives of every one of us, and it’s up to all of us to decide what we want to do with it. Armed with your new understanding of machine learning, you’re in a much better position to think about issues like privacy and data sharing, the future of work, robot warfare, and the promise and peril of AI; and the more of us have this understanding, the more likely we’ll avoid the pitfalls and find the right paths. That’s the other big reason I wrote this book. The statistician knows that prediction is hard, especially about the future, and the computer scientist knows that the best way to predict the future is to invent it, but the unexamined future is not worth inventing.

Total Recall, by Gordon Moore and Jim Gemmell (Dutton, 2009), explores the implications of digitally recording everything we do. The Naked Future, by Patrick Tucker (Current, 2014), surveys the use and abuse of data for prediction in our world. Craig Mundie argues for a balanced approach to data collection and use in “Privacy pragmatism” (Foreign Affairs, 2014). The Second Machine Age, by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (Norton, 2014), discusses how progress in AI will shape the future of work and the economy. “World War R,” by Chris Baraniuk (New Scientist, 2014) reports on the debate surrounding the use of robots in battle. “Transcending complacency on superintelligent machines,” by Stephen Hawking et al. (Huffington Post, 2014), argues that now is the time to worry about AI’s risks. Nick Bostrom’s Superintelligence (Oxford University Press, 2014) considers those dangers and what to do about them.


pages: 318 words: 77,223

The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse by Mohamed A. El-Erian

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, balance sheet recession, bank run, barriers to entry, break the buck, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, carried interest, collapse of Lehman Brothers, corporate governance, currency peg, disruptive innovation, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, financial innovation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial intermediation, financial repression, fixed income, Flash crash, forward guidance, friendly fire, full employment, future of work, Hyman Minsky, If something cannot go on forever, it will stop - Herbert Stein's Law, income inequality, inflation targeting, Jeff Bezos, Kenneth Rogoff, Khan Academy, liquidity trap, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Norman Mailer, oil shale / tar sands, price stability, principal–agent problem, quantitative easing, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, sharing economy, sovereign wealth fund, The Great Moderation, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, yield curve, zero-sum game

It is a revolution that combines two critical elements: empowering individuals to an extent that was deemed unlikely, if not unthinkable, not so long ago; and deploying big data, artificial intelligence, and what Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee have dubbed “the second machine age.”3 Many observers and researchers have referred to these revolutionary and transformational forces as among the most powerful in history. In a March 2015 conference on the Future of Work, organized by WorldPost, a joint venture between Nicolas Berggruen’s Institute and Arianna Huffington’s Huffington Post, Andrew McAfee added that it is “the only free lunch that economists can agree on.” (He also noted that there are no economic laws that guarantee that the benefits will be shared equally or fairly.) While opinions differ, most agree on one thing: We are still at the early stages of truly historical transformations.

Powered by an economic liftoff as politicians are finally tipped into pursuing their policy-making responsibilities (the “Sputnik moment”), and amid stronger multilateral policy coordination, this second road out of the T junction leads to unambiguously better outcomes. The improved enabling environment allows for the productive engagement of lots of sidelined cash. With remarkable innovations accelerating and amplifying the beneficial effects—to quote Andrew McAfee at the March 2015 conference on the Future of Work, hosted in London by WorldPost, “we haven’t seen anything yet…[as these are] the best economic developments in human history”—the emergence of high inclusive growth would be underpinned by genuine financial stability, including the ability to grow out of excessive indebtedness. As hard as we try, it is challenging to predict precisely either when we will get to the neck of the T, or which road we’ll take.


pages: 280 words: 74,559

Fully Automated Luxury Communism by Aaron Bastani

"Robert Solow", autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Bretton Woods, capital controls, cashless society, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, computer age, computer vision, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, double helix, Elon Musk, energy transition, Erik Brynjolfsson, financial independence, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, G4S, housing crisis, income inequality, industrial robot, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Kuiper Belt, land reform, liberal capitalism, low earth orbit, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, market fundamentalism, means of production, mobile money, more computing power than Apollo, new economy, off grid, pattern recognition, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, post scarcity, post-work, price mechanism, price stability, private space industry, Productivity paradox, profit motive, race to the bottom, RFID, rising living standards, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sensor fusion, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Slavoj Žižek, stem cell, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, the built environment, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, transatlantic slave trade, Travis Kalanick, universal basic income, V2 rocket, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Catalog, working-age population

Geriatric care – which combines high levels of fine motor coordination with affective labour and ongoing risk management – is one; after all, societies around the world will be affected by ageing populations over the course of the twenty-first century. Health and education generally will remain labour-intensive and, at the very least, will take longer to disappear. Even with these growth areas in mind, however, the overall picture of job losses due to automation makes standing still seem wildly optimistic. The Future of Work Not everyone agrees that progress will lead to peak human in the Third Disruption as the steam engine and fossil fuels led to peak horse in the Second. Indeed, two of the leading voices in the field of work and technological change, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, believe value will instead increasingly derive from the generation of new ideas. So while anything repetitive may well be automated or significantly augmented by machines, the uniquely human skills of creativity and emotional connection will underpin the jobs of tomorrow.

Business Insider, 6 December 2016. Actually Existing Automation Marr, Bernard. ‘First FDA Approval for Clinical Cloud-Based Deep Learning in Healthcare’. Forbes, 20 January 2017. Croft, Jane. ‘More than 100,000 Legal Roles to Become Automated’. Financial Times, 15 March 2016. Snow, Jackie. ‘A New Algorithm Can Spot Pneumonia Better than a Radiologist’. MIT Technology Review, 16 November 2017. The Future of Work Brynjolfsson, Erik and Andrew McAfee. The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. W.W. Norton, 2014. 5. Limitless Power: Post-Scarcity in Energy Energy and Disruption Malm, Andreas. Fossil Capital: The Rise of Steam Power and the Roots of Global Warming. Verso Books, 2016. Arrival of the Anthropocene Lynch, Patrick. ‘Secrets from the Past Point to Rapid Climate Change in the Future’.


pages: 209 words: 80,086

The Global Auction: The Broken Promises of Education, Jobs, and Incomes by Phillip Brown, Hugh Lauder, David Ashton

active measures, affirmative action, barriers to entry, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, collective bargaining, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, future of work, glass ceiling, global supply chain, immigration reform, income inequality, industrial cluster, industrial robot, intangible asset, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, market bubble, market design, neoliberal agenda, new economy, Paul Samuelson, pensions crisis, post-industrial society, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, shared worldview, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, stem cell, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, winner-take-all economy, working poor, zero-sum game

—Jay Tate1 Standardization in terms of IT has become huge . . . not only standards for a single customer but across countries . . . technology is the ultimate equalizer . . . it will drive globalization, drive change . . . I hope that people don’t get reduced to the state of drones . . . but I think increasingly employment will shrink. —Chief Information Officer, Financial Services T he opportunity bargain rests on an upbeat view of the future of work where a growing number of Americans will do clever and complex things to earn a living in the global economy. Much of the business literature has focused on how companies should develop their human capital to create innovative ideas, products, and services to take American companies forward. Peter Drucker, a highly respected management guru, argued that the source of productivity in a knowledge-driven economy was different from an earlier age of mass production.

We need people who enjoy solving problems . . . so now when we recruit, we look for that high-end empathy and look for that desire to solve problems, that desire to complete things in our profiles . . . we can’t teach people to be more flexible, to be more empathetic . . . but we can teach them the basics of banking. We’ve got core products, core processes; we can teach that quite easily. So we are recruiting against more of the behavioral stuff and teaching the skills stuff, the hard knowledge that you need for the role. Whatever the merits of her argument about the future of portfolio careers, it is diametrically opposed to how pundits of the knowledge economy have portrayed the future of work, within loosely defined occupational roles and high levels of employee discretion. In the modular corporation, there is a different kind of flexibility that requires clearly defined roles that are simplified and codified to enable plugand-play even for highly qualified employees. This is what is at the heart of digital Taylorism—the digital documentation of business process and job descriptions, linked to electronic databases of individual competence profiles, based on human capital metrics.


pages: 237 words: 74,109

Uncanny Valley: A Memoir by Anna Wiener

autonomous vehicles, back-to-the-land, basic income, blockchain, Burning Man, call centre, charter city, cloud computing, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, commoditize, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Extropian, future of work, Golden Gate Park, housing crisis, Jane Jacobs, job automation, knowledge worker, Lean Startup, means of production, medical residency, new economy, New Urbanism, passive income, pull request, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, sharing economy, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social web, South of Market, San Francisco, special economic zone, technoutopianism, telepresence, telepresence robot, union organizing, universal basic income, unpaid internship, urban planning, urban renewal, women in the workforce, Y2K, young professional

I had the premonition that I would never again work in a startup office that looked like it could be disassembled overnight, or in a culture-industry suite with mismatched coffee cups and drafty windows. I would not wear stretch-rayon business casual. I would not see mice. I would become self-actualized by achieving a healthy work-life balance, and I would allow myself to be taken care of, as if I had done something to deserve it. If this was the future of work, I thought, then I was all in. I wanted every workplace to be like this—I wanted it for everyone. I believed that it was sustainable. I believed that it would last. * * * “We’re expecting big things from you, ourselves, and for the company,” read the offer letter, with condescension I found only vaguely objectionable. “You should be justifiably proud.” I was, and I wasn’t. Mostly, I was burned out.

Some employees were well-known in the open-source community, as high-profile maintainers of popular repositories or authors of programming languages. Others leveraged the startup for personal acclaim, blogging and branding their way to minor celebrity. They traveled the world as self-appointed corporate evangelists, hopping continents on the infinite conference circuit. They talked programming frameworks in Tokyo, design thinking in London, the future of work in Berlin. They spoke with the authority of tenured professors to audiences of eager developers, designers, and entrepreneurs, seas of men yoked with laminated day passes. They gave inspirational talks about the toxicity of meetings and waxed poetic about the transcendence of collaboration. They parlayed their personal experiences into universal truths. When they dropped by San Francisco, they walked around SoMa wearing the employee hoodie, acting like people were going to recognize them.


pages: 515 words: 126,820

Blockchain Revolution: How the Technology Behind Bitcoin Is Changing Money, Business, and the World by Don Tapscott, Alex Tapscott

Airbnb, altcoin, asset-backed security, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Blythe Masters, Bretton Woods, business process, buy and hold, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, failed state, fiat currency, financial innovation, Firefox, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, future of work, Galaxy Zoo, George Gilder, glass ceiling, Google bus, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, informal economy, information asymmetry, intangible asset, interest rate swap, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, Lean Startup, litecoin, Lyft, M-Pesa, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, microcredit, mobile money, money market fund, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, off grid, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, peer-to-peer model, performance metric, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, price mechanism, Productivity paradox, QR code, quantitative easing, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, renewable energy credits, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, seigniorage, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart contracts, smart grid, social graph, social intelligence, social software, standardized shipping container, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, supply-chain management, TaskRabbit, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Nature of the Firm, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, Turing complete, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, unorthodox policies, wealth creators, X Prize, Y2K, Zipcar

Edella Schlarger and Elinor Ostrom, “Property-Rights Regimes and Natural Resources: A Conceptual Analysis,” Land Economics 68(3) (August 1992): 249–62; www.jstor.org/stable/3146375. 47. Interview with Haluk Kulin, June 9, 2015. 48. John Paul Titlow, “Fire Your Boss: Holacracy’s Founder on the Flatter Future of Work,” Fast Company, Mansueto Ventures LLC, July 9, 2015; www.fastcompany.com/3048338/the-future-of-work/fire-your-boss-holacracys-founder-on-the-flatter-future-of-work. 49. World Bank, September 2, 2015; www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/04/15/massive-drop-in-number-of-unbanked-says-new-report. 50. “Bitcoin Powers New Worldwide Cellphone Top-Up Service,” CoinDesk, February 15, 2015; www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-powers-new-worldwide-cellphone-top-service/, accessed August 26, 2015.


pages: 903 words: 235,753

The Stack: On Software and Sovereignty by Benjamin H. Bratton

1960s counterculture, 3D printing, 4chan, Ada Lovelace, additive manufacturing, airport security, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, call centre, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, Cass Sunstein, Celebration, Florida, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, connected car, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, dark matter, David Graeber, deglobalization, dematerialisation, disintermediation, distributed generation, don't be evil, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Eratosthenes, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Georg Cantor, gig economy, global supply chain, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Guggenheim Bilbao, High speed trading, Hyperloop, illegal immigration, industrial robot, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jacob Appelbaum, Jaron Lanier, Joan Didion, John Markoff, Joi Ito, Jony Ive, Julian Assange, Khan Academy, liberal capitalism, lifelogging, linked data, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Masdar, McMansion, means of production, megacity, megastructure, Menlo Park, Minecraft, MITM: man-in-the-middle, Monroe Doctrine, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, peak oil, peer-to-peer, performance metric, personalized medicine, Peter Eisenman, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Philip Mirowski, Pierre-Simon Laplace, place-making, planetary scale, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, reserve currency, RFID, Robert Bork, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, semantic web, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Slavoj Žižek, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, software studies, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Startup school, statistical arbitrage, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Stuxnet, Superbowl ad, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, TaskRabbit, the built environment, The Chicago School, the scientific method, Torches of Freedom, transaction costs, Turing complete, Turing machine, Turing test, undersea cable, universal basic income, urban planning, Vernor Vinge, Washington Consensus, web application, Westphalian system, WikiLeaks, working poor, Y Combinator

Amazon also purchased Kiva Systems, a leading manufacturer of warehouse automation systems. See Scott Kirsner, “Amazon Buys Warehouse Robotics Start-Up Kiva Systems for $775 Million,” Boston.com, March 19, 2012, http://www.boston.com/business/technology/innoeco/2012/03/amazon_buys_warehouse_robotics.html. 65.  Stowe Boyd, “If Amazon Is the Future of Work, Then Be Afraid,” Gigaom Research, February 22, 2013, http://research.gigaom.com/2013/02/if-amazon-is-the-future-of-work/. 66.  This dynamic is the central problem drawn out in Jaron Lanier in Who Owns the Future? (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2013), and it leads him to advocate for, among other things, a revaluation of how tacit human knowledge might be rewarded by ubiquitous micropayments. See also Jaron Lanier and Douglas Rushkoff, “The Local-Global Flip, or, ‘The Lanier Effect,’” Edge, August 29, 2011, http://edge.org/conversation/the-local-global-flip. 67. 

By all accounts, Amazon space is already built on the nimble precision of a logistical engineering of human workers’ movements with a repetitious efficiency probably better suited to robots. In describing the stress and precariousness of work in Amazon fulfillment centers, GigaOM, a Bay Area technology blog, went so far as to characterize employment at Amazon as a “dystopian model of neofeudalism.”65 As Amazon absorbs, centralizes, and consolidates production labor into tighter strata of proprietary commerce-logistics algorithms, the future of work is made that much more uncertain, and along with it the buying power of the workers who would also be their customer-Users.66 Perhaps the boldest (not necessarily best) design statement made by a Cloud platform is Campus 2 in Cupertino, as proposed by Apple and Sir Foster during Steve Jobs's last years (though when Jobs pitched the plans to the Cupertino City Council, he neglected to mention with whom exactly his vision sought collaboration; Foster was not named).

By all accounts, Amazon space is already built on the precision of an object flow that engineers the movements of human workers with a repetitious efficiency probably better suited to robots. In describing the stress and precariousness of work in Amazon fulfillment centers it may be that less human labor is more humane, but as Amazon (and really all the major Cloud platforms) absorbs, centralizes, and consolidates production labor into tighter strata of proprietary commerce-logistics algorithms, the future of work is made that much more uncertain, and along with it, the real economic power of their workers to also be their customer-Users. 20.  For example, Ian Berry, “Monsanto to Buy Planting Technology Company,” Wall Street Journal, May 23, 2012, http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304707604577422162132896528. 21.  Sleep Dealer, directed by Alex Rivera (Vaya Entertainment, 2008). 22.  From a private Facebook post by Christopher Head. 23. 


pages: 261 words: 78,884

$2.00 A Day: Living on Almost Nothing in America by Kathryn Edin, H. Luke Shaefer

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, business cycle, clean water, ending welfare as we know it, future of work, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, impulse control, indoor plumbing, informal economy, low-wage service sector, mass incarceration, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, The Future of Employment, War on Poverty, working poor, Works Progress Administration

. [>] retirement plans: Schmitt, “Low-Wage Lessons.” [>] projected to grow, not shrink: “Industry Employment and Output Projections to 2022,” Monthly Labor Review, December 2013, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/industry-employment-and-output-projections-to-2022-1.htm. See also Rebecca Thiess, “The Future of Work: Trends and Challenges for Low-Wage Workers” (EPI Briefing Paper No. 341, Economic Policy Institute, Washington, DC, April 27, 2012), http://s2.epi.org/files/2012/bp341-future-of-work.pdf. [>] set workers up for failure: Susan J. Lambert, Anna Haley-Lock, and Julia R. Henly, “Schedule Flexibility in Hourly Jobs: Unanticipated Consequences and Promising Directions,” Community, Work & Family 15, no. 3 (2012): 293–315; Arne L. Kalleberg, “Precarious Work, Insecure Workers: Employment Relations in Transition,” 2008 presidential address, American Sociological Review 74 (February 2008): 1–22; Susan J.


pages: 362 words: 83,464

The New Class Conflict by Joel Kotkin

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Bob Noyce, California gold rush, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, creative destruction, crony capitalism, David Graeber, deindustrialization, don't be evil, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, energy security, falling living standards, future of work, Gini coefficient, Google bus, housing crisis, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, labor-force participation, low-wage service sector, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, mass affluent, McJob, McMansion, medical bankruptcy, Nate Silver, New Economic Geography, new economy, New Urbanism, obamacare, offshore financial centre, Paul Buchheit, payday loans, Peter Calthorpe, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-industrial society, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, rent-seeking, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, Richard Florida, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Steve Jobs, technoutopianism, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, transcontinental railway, trickle-down economics, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban sprawl, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional

McCarthy, “Republicans Subsidize Mansions,” National Review Online, November 26, 2011, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/284101/republicans-subsidize-mansions-andrew-c-mccarthy. 64. Friedman, The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, p. 349. 65. U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Transportation Implications of Telecommuting, http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/telecommute.html; Dan Schawbel, “How Millennials Will Shape the Future of Work,” Pando Daily, September 3, 2013, http://pando.com/2013/09/03/how-millennials-will-shape-the-future-of-work. 66. Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America, vol. 1, trans. Henry Reeve (New York: Bantam, 2002), p. 213. 67. Frederick Jackson Turner, The Significance of the Frontier in American History (New York: Frederick Unger, 1973), pp. 57–58. 68. Ibid, pp. 58–59. Chapter 2: Valley of the Oligarchs 1. eBizMBA.com, “Top 15 Most Popular Social Networking Sites,” http://www.ebizmba.com/articles/social-networking-websites. 2.


pages: 472 words: 80,835

Life as a Passenger: How Driverless Cars Will Change the World by David Kerrigan

3D printing, Airbnb, airport security, Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, big-box store, butterfly effect, call centre, car-free, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, Chris Urmson, commoditize, computer vision, congestion charging, connected car, DARPA: Urban Challenge, deskilling, disruptive innovation, edge city, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, future of work, invention of the wheel, Just-in-time delivery, loss aversion, Lyft, Marchetti’s constant, Mars Rover, megacity, Menlo Park, Metcalfe’s law, Minecraft, Nash equilibrium, New Urbanism, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rodney Brooks, Sam Peltzman, self-driving car, sensor fusion, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, smart cities, Snapchat, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, technoutopianism, the built environment, Thorstein Veblen, traffic fines, transit-oriented development, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban planning, urban sprawl, Yogi Berra, young professional, zero-sum game, Zipcar

Although the scale of the changes within the scope of this book is massive, it is only part of an even larger point where humans need to decide how much of their traditional roles they are going to delegate to computers. That may sound dramatic, but that is the decision point humans are approaching. Questions like the future of work after robots, climate change and driverless cars are trans-generational where the final consequences may not be seen by the generation making many of the decisions. Several excellent studies on the future of work have been compiled and I’ve included some in the references section. Epochal innovations are by definition rare but there is no constraint that says several cannot come at once, or over a short period of time. Not all epochal innovations are good ideas on every level or even desirable from all perspectives, but they deserve to be assessed with a different lens than other ideas.


The Buddha and the Badass: The Secret Spiritual Art of Succeeding at Work by Vishen Lakhiani

Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, call centre, Colonization of Mars, crowdsourcing, deliberate practice, Elon Musk, fundamental attribution error, future of work, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, iterative process, Jeff Bezos, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, performance metric, Peter Thiel, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Skype, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, web application, white picket fence

Work should not limit people’s personal lives. It’s remarkable when the people around you grow, because they expand you too. Community has a miraculous compounding effect. So care for your people and show them they matter. Even in small ways. Because then the work you’re doing together will matter to them. The Future of Work Bill Jensen, author of Hacking Work: Breaking Stupid Rules for Smart Results, once visited Mindvalley HQ. “What do you think will be one of the biggest trends in the future of work?” I asked. “Work will no longer be just about getting employees engaged in the company vision,” he told me. “Companies will need to be engaged with the employee’s vision.” Bill is an oracle. I really believe that workers who are given the right to explore their passions are simply better workers.


pages: 486 words: 150,849

Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America: A Recent History by Kurt Andersen

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, airline deregulation, airport security, always be closing, American ideology, American Legislative Exchange Council, anti-communist, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, blue-collar work, Bonfire of the Vanities, bonus culture, Burning Man, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, centre right, computer age, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate raider, COVID-19, Covid-19, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, cryptocurrency, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, ending welfare as we know it, Erik Brynjolfsson, feminist movement, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, game design, George Gilder, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, High speed trading, hive mind, income inequality, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jitney, Joan Didion, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, mass immigration, mass incarceration, Menlo Park, Naomi Klein, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, obamacare, Peter Thiel, Picturephone, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-industrial society, Powell Memorandum, pre–internet, Ralph Nader, Right to Buy, road to serfdom, Robert Bork, Robert Gordon, Robert Mercer, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Seaside, Florida, Second Machine Age, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, strikebreaker, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban planning, urban renewal, very high income, wage slave, Wall-E, War on Poverty, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional, éminence grise

” * * * — From the end of World War II through the New York World’s Fair, as I’ve described, the future looked pretty fabulous to most Americans, but then during the roiling late 1960s people got confused and scared of the new. Specifically concerning what computers implied for the future of work and jobs, however, the consensus suddenly did the reverse: for two decades, experts had worried about where automation was leading our economy, but starting in the late 1960s the smart set couldn’t wait to get to superautomated Tomorrowland. A significant early worrier had been the mathematician Norbert Wiener—college graduate at fourteen, Harvard professor at nineteen, at MIT the godfather of artificial intelligence—who back in 1948 published Cybernetics, a groundbreaking book that gave a new technological field a name. It was remarkably popular, and talking about it to a reporter back then, Wiener succinctly and accurately foresaw the future of work—that is, our present. Just as “the first industrial revolution devalued human labor” such that “no pick-and-shovel ditch-digger can sell his services at any price in competition with a steamshovel,” before too long the second industrial revolution would completely automate a factory without a human operator…Such machines will make it very difficult for the human being to sell a service that consists of making routine, stereotyped decisions.

Watkins, Elizabeth Siegel. “How the Pill Became a Lifestyle Drug: The Pharmaceutical Industry and Birth Control in the United States Since 1960.” American Journal of Public Health 102, no. 8 (2012): 1462–72. Weisberg, Jacob. Ronald Reagan. New York: Times Books/Henry Holt, 2016. Welch, Jack, and John A. Byrne. Jack: Straight from the Gut. New York: Warner Books, 2001. West, Darrell M. The Future of Work: Robots, AI, and Automation. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2018. Westbrook, Wayne W. Wall Street in the American Novel. New York: New York University Press, 1980. Wiener, Norbert. The Human Use of Human Beings. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1950. Wilkinson, Will. “The Density Divide: Urbanization, Polarization, and Populist Backlash.” Niskanen Center, June 2019. Winkler, Adam.


pages: 339 words: 94,769

Possible Minds: Twenty-Five Ways of Looking at AI by John Brockman

AI winter, airport security, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Benoit Mandelbrot, Bill Joy: nanobots, Buckminster Fuller, cellular automata, Claude Shannon: information theory, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Danny Hillis, David Graeber, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Elon Musk, Eratosthenes, Ernest Rutherford, finite state, friendly AI, future of work, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, gig economy, income inequality, industrial robot, information retrieval, invention of writing, James Watt: steam engine, Johannes Kepler, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Laplace demon, Loebner Prize, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, Norbert Wiener, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, Picturephone, profit maximization, profit motive, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, Skype, social graph, speech recognition, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, strong AI, superintelligent machines, supervolcano, technological singularity, technoutopianism, telemarketer, telerobotics, the scientific method, theory of mind, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, Von Neumann architecture, Whole Earth Catalog, Y2K, zero-sum game

The prospect of physically self-reproducing automata is potentially much scarier than fears of out-of-control AI, because it moves the intelligence out here to where we live. It could be a road map leading to Terminator’s Skynet robotic overlords. But it’s also a more hopeful prospect, because an ability to program atoms as well as bits enables designs to be shared globally while locally producing things like energy, food, and shelter—all of these are emerging as exciting early applications of digital fabrication. Wiener worried about the future of work, but he didn’t question implicit assumptions about the nature of work that are challenged when consumption can be replaced by creation. History suggests that neither utopian nor dystopian scenarios prevail; we generally end up muddling along somewhere in between. But history also suggests that we don’t have to wait on history. Gordon Moore in 1965 was able to use five years of the doubling of the specifications of integrated circuits to project what turned out to be fifty years of exponential improvements in digital technologies.

Given how essential computer networks are to modern society, it is much more likely that AI wars will be fought in cyberspace. The consequences could be just as dire. * * * — Despite this loss of control, we continue to march inexorably into a world in which AI will be everywhere: Individuals won’t be able to resist its convenience and power, and corporations and governments won’t be able to resist its competitive advantages. But important questions arise about the future of work. Computers have been responsible for considerable losses in blue-collar jobs in the last few decades, but until recently many white-collar jobs—jobs that “only humans can do”—were thought to be safe. Suddenly that no longer appears to be true. Accountants, many legal and medical professionals, financial analysts and stockbrokers, travel agents—in fact, a large fraction of white-collar jobs—will disappear as a result of sophisticated machine-learning programs.


pages: 307 words: 88,180

AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order by Kai-Fu Lee

AI winter, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, business cycle, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Google Chrome, happiness index / gross national happiness, if you build it, they will come, ImageNet competition, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Lean Startup, low skilled workers, Lyft, mandatory minimum, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, minimum viable product, natural language processing, new economy, pattern recognition, pirate software, profit maximization, QR code, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Robert Mercer, Rodney Brooks, Rubik’s Cube, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, special economic zone, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, strong AI, The Future of Employment, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, urban planning, Y Combinator

just 9 percent of jobs: Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory, and Ulrich Zierahn, “The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis,” OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers, no. 189, May 14, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en. 38 percent of jobs: Richard Berriman and John Hawksworth, “Will Robots Steal Our Jobs? The Potential Impact of Automation on the UK and Other Major Economies,” PwC, March 2017, https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/ukeo/pwcukeo-section-4-automation-march-2017-v2.pdf. already automatable: James Manyika et al., “What the Future of Work Will Mean for Jobs, Skills, and Wages,” McKinsey Global Institute, November 2017, https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/future-of-organizations-and-work/what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages. 20 to 25 percent fewer employees: Karen Harris, Austin Kimson, and Andrew Schwedel, “Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality,” Bain and Company, February 7, 2018, http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality.aspx.


pages: 346 words: 89,180

Capitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy by Jonathan Haskel, Stian Westlake

"Robert Solow", 23andMe, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, bank run, banking crisis, Bernie Sanders, business climate, business process, buy and hold, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cloud computing, cognitive bias, computer age, corporate governance, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, dark matter, Diane Coyle, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, endogenous growth, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial innovation, full employment, fundamental attribution error, future of work, Gini coefficient, Hernando de Soto, hiring and firing, income inequality, index card, indoor plumbing, intangible asset, Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, job automation, Kenneth Arrow, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, laissez-faire capitalism, liquidity trap, low skilled workers, Marc Andreessen, Mother of all demos, Network effects, new economy, open economy, patent troll, paypal mafia, Peter Thiel, pets.com, place-making, post-industrial society, Productivity paradox, quantitative hedge fund, rent-seeking, revision control, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Sand Hill Road, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, software patent, sovereign wealth fund, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, survivorship bias, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, total factor productivity, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, urban planning, Vanguard fund, walkable city, X Prize, zero-sum game

We’ll then look at whether the rules for sustaining competitive advantage have changed (they haven’t), if management is becoming more important (it is), and how suited current accounting measures are for investors to identify such advantage (they aren’t). Back in the heady days of the late 1990s, when pundits began to be excited en masse about a new economy, there was something of a shared vision of what businesses would need to do to succeed in the new economy, and what that would mean for management and working life. Charles Handy’s 1994 book The Future of Work forecasted, presciently, a future of portfolio jobs and careers for the well-educated and precarious subcontracting for others. Charles Leadbeater’s Living on Thin Air, published at the height of the dot-com bubble, begins with a portrait of the author as a portfolio knowledge worker and then identifies eight characteristics that successful new economy companies would have: they would be cellular, self-managing, entrepreneurial, and integrative; they would offer their staff ownership stakes; and they would need deep reservoirs of knowledge, public legitimacy, and collaborative leadership.

See US Federal Reserve FedEx, 190–91 financial assets, 20 financialization, 161, 168 Financial Times, 183 financing, 158–60, 179–81; banking industry and, 158–59, 162–66; through crowdfunding, 166; and equity markets, 169–74; for intangible investments, 218–21; and investing in the intangible economy, 201–6; problems in, 160–79; short-termism in, 161, 168–69; stock markets and, 167–68, 205–6; through venture capital (VC), 154–55, 161, 166, 174–79 Five Star Movement, 122–23 fixed assets, 20 Florida, Richard, 148, 215 Food and Drug Administration. See US Food and Drug Administration Ford, Henry, 36 Forman, Chris, 139 Frascati Manual, 38 Freeman, Chris, 39 Freeman, Richard, 124 FreshDirect, 23 Fukao, Kyoji, 42 Future of Work, The (Handy), 182 Gal, Peter, 96 Gann, David, 197 Garicano, Luis, 134, 135, 191 Gaspar, Jess, 146 Gates, Bill, 222–23 Gates Foundation, 222–23 Gavious, Ilanit, 204 GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History (Coyle), 36 Genentech, 174, 175 General Electric (GE), 51, 60–61, 184, 194, 204 General Theory of Employment (Keynes), 249n1 generational inequality, 121–22 GitHub, 29, 79, 152, 217 Glaeser, Edward, 62, 79, 138–39, 142, 146, 147 globalization, 119; and growing market sizes, 34–35 Gold, Joe, 17 Goldfarb, Avi, 139 Goldin, Claudia, 228 Goldwyn, Sam, 229 Goodridge, Peter, 25, 223 goodwill, 251n9 Google, 67–68, 73, 87, 170, 209, 222; contestedness and, 115; Kaggle and, 152; scalability of, 101–2, 105; spillovers and, 110; venture capital and, 174, 175, 176, 177 Goos, Martin, 123 Gordon, Robert, 93, 228 government: funding of training and education by, 228–30; investment by, 231–34, 234–36; and public procurement, 226–28; R&D spending by, 33–34, 55, 77, 223–24 Graham, John R., 168 Great Depression, 36, 127 “Great Doubling, The” (Freeman), 124 Great Invention: The Story of GDP, The (Masood), 36 Great Recession, 103, 108, 116 Great Stagnation, The (Cowen), 93 Greenspan, Alan, 40, 244n3 Greenstein, Shane, 139 Griliches, Zvi, 38, 62 gross domestic product (GDP), 3, 20, 42; difficulty in calculation of, 37, 244n3; government spending and, 55; human capital and, 54; and intangible investment, 35, 54, 117; IT investment and, 29–30; measurement of, 38, 40–41, 245n10; and tangible versus intangible investment, 25–27, 32 Groysberg, Boris, 194 Gu, Feng, 185, 203 Guerrero kidnapping, 74 Guvenen, Fatih, 129 gyms, commercial, 15–19 Håkanson, Christina, 131, 133 Haldane, Andrew, 168 Hall, Bronwyn, 62, 105–6, 211–12 Haltiwanger, John, 42 Handy, Charles, 182, 183 Hargreaves, Ian, 213 Harvard Business Review, 184 Harvey, Campbell, R., 168 Haskel, Jonathan, 42 Hayek, Friedrich von, 190 Hermalin, Benjamin, 199 Hewlett Packard, 170 high-intensity interval training (HIIT), 17 Hilber, Christian, 216 Home Depot, 194 Horizon 2020 program, 218 Hounsfield, Godrey, 59, 61 housing, 122, 128–29, 136–39; affordable, 148–49; creative class and, 215; planning of, 215–16 Howitt, Peter, 41 HTC, 73, 112 Hubbard, Thomas, 134, 135 Hughes, Alan, 223 Hulten, Charles, 4–5, 43, 45, 48, 56 human capital, 54, 119 IBM, 39, 170 ICI, 167, 169 income, 119–20, 127–28; implications of an intangible economy for, 143; intangibles, firms, and inequality of, 130; intangibles’ effects on, 129–40; scalability and, 133–34 industrial commons, 84–85 Industrial Revolution, 126 industrial structure, 30–31 inequality, 118–19; accumulation of capital as reason for, 124–25; and differences in wages between firms, 129; of earnings, 120–21, 127–40; of esteem, 122–23, 129–40, 141–42; field guide to, 119–23; between the generations, 121–22; in an intangible-rich economy, 130–32, 135–35, 236–38; measures of, 119–20; of place, 122, 128–29, 136–39, 249n3; as result of improvements in technology, 123–24, 126–27; role of housing prices in, 122, 128–29, 136–39; standard explanations for, 123–25; symbolic analysts and, 133–34; and taxes, 139–40; trade and, 124; of wealth, 121, 128–40; worker screening and, 134–35 influence activities, 196 information, definition of, 64 infrastructure, 144, 157; definition of, 144–45; enabling character of, 145; hype and false promises surrounding, 145–47; institutional, 153–56; physical, 147–51; role of norms and standards in, 154–55; soft, 156; telecommunications, 151–52 innervation, 18 innovation districts, 215 innovative property, 43–45 Institution of Cleveland Engineers, 83 Institution of Mechanical Engineers, 83 intangible economy, the, 182–85, 206–7; competition in, 185–87; cult of the manager and, 184, 188; financing of (see under financing); inequality in (see under inequality); investing in, 201–6; managing in, 188–200; public policy and (see under public policy); R&D in (see under R&D [research and development]) intangible myths, 135–36 intangibles, 10–11, 201–6, 239–42; accounting treatment of, 202–4; banking industry and, 162–66; changing business climate and, 31–34, 239–40; contestedness of, 87–88, 115, 132; cosmopolitanism versus conservatism and, 141–42; depreciation of, 56–57; differences between tangibles and, 7–10, 58; effect on GDP growth of, 117; effects of institutional infrastructure on, 153; effects of low levels of investment in, 102–3; effects on income, wealth, and esteem inequality of, 129–40; emergent characteristics of, 86–88; equity markets and, 169–74; as explanation for secular stagnation, 101–16; financial architecture for, 218–21; the four S’s of, 8–10, 58, 61–63, 88; future challenges of measuring, 52–55; globalization and growing market sizes and, 34–35; in gyms, 15–19; and income inequality, 130–32; industrial structure and, 30–31; measurement of, 7–8, 46–49; mobile, 139–40, 248n4; properties of, 8–10; public procurement and, 226–28; as real investment or not, 49–52; reasons for growth of investment in, 27–35; research on, 5–7; and secular stagnation (see under secular stagnation); solving underinvestment in, 221–30; steady growth of investment in, 23–27; types of, 21–22, 43–46; venture capital as well-suited for, 175–77; worker screening and, 134–35.


pages: 90 words: 27,452

No More Work: Why Full Employment Is a Bad Idea by James Livingston

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, business cycle, collective bargaining, delayed gratification, full employment, future of work, Internet of things, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, labor-force participation, late capitalism, liberal capitalism, obamacare, post-work, Project for a New American Century, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, surplus humans, The Future of Employment, union organizing, working poor

One way or another, public spending would have to make up the deficit in aggregate demand, and recreate a transparent or intelligible relation between production and consumption, by means of (a) existing welfare programs, and/or (b) direct employment by government, and/or (c) income maintenance (transfer) payments to households or individuals. 4. Income maintenance (c), or a guaranteed annual income, was the best alternative to existing welfare programs. 5. Any income-maintenance program would have to include both strong incentives to work and robust provisions for child care if it were to pass the test of public opinion and the vote of elected representatives. V The future of work looked bleak from the vantage point of the 1970s, whether viewed as a moral tablet or an economic indicator. From either perspective, it looks a lot worse now. The future these intellectuals, politicians, and policymakers had glimpsed was a world without work and the psychological renunciations that went with it; but instead of ignoring its disturbing and liberating implications, as the Left and the Right of our time seem determined to do, they mapped this world.


pages: 94 words: 26,453

The End of Nice: How to Be Human in a World Run by Robots (Kindle Single) by Richard Newton

3D printing, Black Swan, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, Clayton Christensen, crowdsourcing, deliberate practice, disruptive innovation, fear of failure, Filter Bubble, future of work, Google Glasses, Isaac Newton, James Dyson, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, lateral thinking, Lean Startup, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Paul Erdős, Paul Graham, recommendation engine, rising living standards, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, social intelligence, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Y Combinator

All those occupations that rested on repetitive, rule-bound, machine-like efficiency are the ones that will be imminently automated out of existence. This is true for blue collar and white collar work; for high skill and low skill. If it can be reduced to computer code then software will eat the job. The period during which society reshapes from one dedicated to machine-like efficiency to one based on individual creativity will be bumpy. The economists Maarten Goos and Alan Manning forecast that the future of work is bifurcating into “lovely jobs and lousy jobs”. The lovely jobs will go to those who offer something that machines cannot. That something is their individuality. This will no longer be mere lip-service. What you personally bring will matter. This will be scary and exciting because the world will call on you to create, develop, expose and share your own ideas and thus be authentically yourself.


pages: 416 words: 100,130

New Power: How Power Works in Our Hyperconnected World--And How to Make It Work for You by Jeremy Heimans, Henry Timms

"side hustle", 3D printing, 4chan, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, battle of ideas, Benjamin Mako Hill, bitcoin, blockchain, British Empire, Chris Wanstrath, Columbine, Corn Laws, crowdsourcing, David Attenborough, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Ferguson, Missouri, future of work, game design, gig economy, hiring and firing, IKEA effect, income inequality, informal economy, job satisfaction, Jony Ive, Kibera, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, Minecraft, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, Occupy movement, profit motive, race to the bottom, ride hailing / ride sharing, rolodex, Saturday Night Live, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Snapchat, social web, TaskRabbit, the scientific method, transaction costs, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, upwardly mobile, web application, WikiLeaks

There is increasing risk today for organizations whose former employees are ready to rise up and speak out against them. One senior HR leader recently told us that the website Glassdoor—which displays anonymous (and sometimes scathing) company reviews from current and former employees—“keeps her up at night” and is now having a much greater influence on new hires than her company recruiting site ever did. THE ATOMIZED AND UNCERTAIN FUTURE OF WORK Not only are workers becoming more transient, work itself is becoming more atomized and impermanent. The contingent workforce is growing rapidly, thanks in part to the rise of “gig economy” platforms. In a world of fraying loyalties, tour-of-duty professionals, downsizing, wannabe founders, and hybrid musician/coder/furniture designers, up to 40 percent of the U.S. workforce can now be counted as contingent.

Unions continue to decline around the world, another twentieth-century form of affiliation that has struggled to adapt to the twenty-first. But new power models can help us reimagine them. A small glimpse of this is coworker.org, a platform that allows anyone to start a workplace-level campaign, with or without a union, from Starbucks baristas who agitated for more staff to Uber drivers who fought to have tips introduced on the platform, and won. As we look to the future of work, it’s easy to imagine a bifurcation: the vast majority of work shaped by the financial logic of automation and the mathematical logic of the algorithm, alongside a small number of hyper-empowered “founders” with tremendous agency, access to capital, and capacity to innovate. But we should reject the idea that our destiny is to end up either being replaced by robots or treated like them. We believe there’s a practical advantage—and a moral imperative—to designing platforms that prove more human: ones that offer worker protections and security, provide freedom and dignity, and release creativity and ultimately value. 12 THE FUTURE: A FULL-STACK SOCIETY Yochai Benkler is a professor at Harvard who has spent the past twenty years writing and thinking about the possibilities of technology-enabled collaboration and mass participation.


pages: 335 words: 96,002

WEconomy: You Can Find Meaning, Make a Living, and Change the World by Craig Kielburger, Holly Branson, Marc Kielburger, Sir Richard Branson, Sheryl Sandberg

Airbnb, Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, blood diamonds, business intelligence, business process, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, Colonization of Mars, corporate social responsibility, Downton Abbey, Elon Musk, energy transition, family office, future of work, global village, inventory management, James Dyson, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, market design, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Nelson Mandela, Occupy movement, pre–internet, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, telemarketer, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, working poor, Y Combinator

Reinvented retirement by shifting to part-time positions—career makeovers that cater more to interests and values as they start to think about legacies, both professional and personal. Many volunteer in their free time or take positions on charitable boards. Gen Xers born 1961 to 1980 A powerful force for a purpose-driven economy. And they're running things. In 2014, 68 percent of Inc 500 companies were run by Gen Xers.2 Time magazine called Gen Xers “the future of work,” with the first of their cohort turning 50 in 2015, and the average age of an S&P 1500 CEO being—you guessed it—50. This cohort volunteers more than any other generation. Incoming generations—Millennials born 1981 to 1995 and Gen Z born after 1995 They will withhold their talents and spending power from companies that don't live up to their expectations. 60 percent of Gen Zers want jobs that have a social impact.

They are ‘entrepreneurial’ (72 percent want to start their own businesses) and community-oriented (26 percent already volunteer).3 They now number some two billion worldwide.4 They are the most educated generation in history.5 Notes 1. Yeuh, Linda. “The Rise of the Global Middle Class.” BBC.com. June 19, 2013. Accessed June 26, 2017. http://www.bbc .com/news/business-22956470. 2. LaMotte, Susan. “Forget Millennials. Gen Xers Are the Future of Work.” TIME.com. October 2, 2014. Accessed April 1, 2017. http://time.com/3456522/millennials-generation-x-work/. 3. Anne Kingston. “Get Ready for Generation Z.” Maclean's. July 15, 2015. Accessed April 1, 2017. http://www.macleans .ca/society/life/get-ready-for-generation-z/. 4. Ibid. 5. “Generation Uphill.” The Economist. January 23, 2016. Accessed June 1, 2017. http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21688591-millennials-are-brainiest-best-educated-generation-ever-yet-their-elders-often.


pages: 362 words: 99,063

The Education of Millionaires: It's Not What You Think and It's Not Too Late by Michael Ellsberg

affirmative action, Black Swan, Burning Man, corporate governance, creative destruction, financial independence, follow your passion, future of work, hiring and firing, job automation, knowledge worker, lateral thinking, Lean Startup, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, mega-rich, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, Norman Mailer, Peter Thiel, profit motive, race to the bottom, Sand Hill Road, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, Skype, social intelligence, Steve Ballmer, survivorship bias, telemarketer, Tony Hsieh

They want to work for themselves, creating value for other people on their terms—perhaps on a Wi-Fi-connected laptop from a mobile location. These people, young and old, read books like The Four-Hour Workweek: Escape 9–5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich by Tim Ferriss, Escape from Cubicle Nation: From Corporate Prisoner to Thriving Entrepreneur by Pamela Slim, and Career Renegade: How to Make a Great Living Doing What You Love by Jonathan Fields. Daniel Pink, in Free Agent Nation: The Future of Working for Yourself, his 2001 book prophesying the current tidal wave of microentrepreneurialism, small business, and self-employment, calls them “self-employed knowledge workers, proprietors of home-based businesses . . . freelancers and e-lancers, independent contractors and independent professionals, micropreneurs and infopreneurs, part-time consultants . . . on-call troubleshooters, and full-time soloists.”9 These new kinds of opportunities, open to anyone who wants to pursue them, without any formal, traditional, or academic qualifications necessary to compete, have arisen largely because of technology.

The baby boomers were too different, at a time when that was the wrong strategy. Now the millennials are too conformist, at a time when that’s the wrong strategy. We’re now in a chaotic time, where people need to have skills that are adaptable.” Thiel is pointing out something which I think is incredibly important, and cuts to the heart of my whole intention with this book. If we only know one thing for certain about the future of work, business, and careers, it is this: the future is not going to be anything like we predict. The only thing we can be certain of is uncertainty. I say that, not as some pseudo-spiritual poetic notion, but as a cold, hard, objective fact. Systems theorists have known for decades that the more complex any system gets (whether it’s a physical or biological system, a social network, an organization, or an entire economy), the more unpredictable its behavior gets.


pages: 116 words: 31,356

Platform Capitalism by Nick Srnicek

3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cloud computing, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, deindustrialization, deskilling, disintermediation, future of work, gig economy, Infrastructure as a Service, Internet of things, Jean Tirole, Jeff Bezos, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, liquidity trap, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, mittelstand, multi-sided market, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, offshore financial centre, pattern recognition, platform as a service, quantitative easing, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, self-driving car, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, software as a service, TaskRabbit, the built environment, total factor productivity, two-sided market, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, unconventional monetary instruments, unorthodox policies, Zipcar

While the lean model has garnered a large amount of hype and, in the case of Uber, a large amount of VC, there are few signs that it will inaugurate a major shift in advanced capitalist countries. In terms of outsourcing, the lean model remains a minor player in a long-term trend. The profit-making capacity of most lean models likewise appears to be minimal and limited to a few specialised tasks. And, even there, the most successful of the lean models has been supported by VC welfare rather than by any meaningful revenue generation. Far from representing the future of work or that of the economy, these models seem likely to fall apart in the coming years. Conclusion We began this chapter by arguing that twenty-first-century capitalism has found a massive new raw material to appropriate: data. Through a series of developments, the platform has become an increasingly dominant way of organising businesses so as to monopolise these data, then extract, analyse, use, and sell them.


pages: 118 words: 35,663

Smart Machines: IBM's Watson and the Era of Cognitive Computing (Columbia Business School Publishing) by John E. Kelly Iii

AI winter, call centre, carbon footprint, crowdsourcing, demand response, discovery of DNA, disruptive innovation, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, global supply chain, Internet of things, John von Neumann, Mars Rover, natural language processing, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, planetary scale, RAND corporation, RFID, Richard Feynman, smart grid, smart meter, speech recognition, Turing test, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!

For instance, in 1994 he visited the founding engineers of Mosaic Communications (later to be renamed Netscape) shortly after they set up shop in a tiny office on Castro Street in Mountain View, Calif. That was the dawn of the Internet era. Since then he has written hundreds of stories about innovation. In addition, he has authored books about the rise of the Indian tech industry, mobile computing, and the future of work. With that kind of deep experience, Steve’s a natural partner for me in this project. He interviewed dozens of IBM’s scientists and engineers plus numerous outside experts to flesh out the vision and shape the narrative. The creation of this new era of computing is a monumental endeavor, and, while IBM possesses a vision of the future and a broad portfolio of expertise, no company can take on this sort of challenge alone.


pages: 364 words: 99,897

The Industries of the Future by Alec Ross

23andMe, 3D printing, Airbnb, algorithmic trading, AltaVista, Anne Wojcicki, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, bioinformatics, bitcoin, blockchain, Brian Krebs, British Empire, business intelligence, call centre, carbon footprint, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, connected car, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, cryptocurrency, David Brooks, disintermediation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, distributed ledger, Edward Glaeser, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, fiat currency, future of work, global supply chain, Google X / Alphabet X, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Joi Ito, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, lifelogging, litecoin, M-Pesa, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Mikhail Gorbachev, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Nelson Mandela, new economy, offshore financial centre, open economy, Parag Khanna, paypal mafia, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, precision agriculture, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rubik’s Cube, Satoshi Nakamoto, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, social graph, software as a service, special economic zone, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, technoutopianism, The Future of Employment, Travis Kalanick, underbanked, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Y Combinator, young professional

Each of these robots currently costs $25,000: John Biggs, “Foxconn Allegedly Replacing Human Workers with Robots,” TechCrunch, November 13, 2012, http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/13/foxconn-allegedly-replacing-human-workers-with-robots/; Nicholas Jackson, “Foxconn Will Replace Workers with 1 Million Robots in 3 Years,” Atlantic, July 31, 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/07/foxconn-will-replace-workers-with-1-million-robots-in-3-years/242810/. By the end of 2012: Jackson, “Foxconn Will Replace Workers.” Gou hopes to have the first: Robert Skidelsky, “Rise of the Robots: What Will the Future of Work Look Like?” Guardian, February 19, 2013, http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/feb/19/rise-of-robots-future-of-work. As he explained in a 2012 New York Times article: John Markoff, “Skilled Work, without the Worker,” New York Times, August 19, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/19/business/new-wave-of-adept-robots-is-changing-global-industry.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0. But wages in China: Keith Bradsher, “Even as Wages Rise, China Exports Grow,” New York Times, January 10, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/10/business/international/chinese-exports-withstand-rising-labor-costs.html?


Basic Income: A Radical Proposal for a Free Society and a Sane Economy by Philippe van Parijs, Yannick Vanderborght

"Robert Solow", Airbnb, Albert Einstein, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, centre right, collective bargaining, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, declining real wages, diversified portfolio, Edward Snowden, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, full employment, future of work, George Akerlof, illegal immigration, income per capita, informal economy, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kickstarter, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, minimum wage unemployment, open borders, Paul Samuelson, pension reform, precariat, price mechanism, profit motive, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, road to serfdom, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, selection bias, sharing economy, sovereign wealth fund, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Tobin tax, universal basic income, urban planning, urban renewal, War on Poverty, working poor

In Catalonia, by contrast, the question was more precise. In July 2015, 1,800 residents Â�were asked what they thought of a basic income of 650 euros financed by a transfer from the 20 Â�percent richest to the rest of the population. Fully 72 Â�percent answered they Â�were in Â�favor (GESOP 2015: 4). 10. The results of this survey Â�were presented by Dalia Research at the conference on “The Â�Future of Work” held in ZuÂ�rich on May 4, 2016. See https://Â�daliaresearch╉.Â�com╉/Â�. 11╉.Â�See Â�Tables 1.2, 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 in Colombo et al. 2016, which contains many more inÂ�terÂ�estÂ�ing data. We thank the authors for having given us access to their report before publication. 12. Sloman 2016: 209, 213. 13. Moynihan 1973: 276–7. On the US labor Â� movement, see also Desmond King (1995: 208): “OrÂ�gaÂ�nized Â�labor has been glad to support selective noncontributory programs allocated on a means-Â�tested basis for nonunion members but has been disinclined to mobilize its poÂ�litiÂ�cal strength to build universal public welfare programs.” 14.

Guardian, June 6, 2016. The Compass report proposed a weekly individual basic income of 71 pounds for adults aged over 25 (about 13 Â�percent of GDP per capita) combined with conditional top-Â�ups (Reed and Lansley 2016: 17). Something similar may be happening with New Zealand’s Â�Labour Party. The idea of a local or regional basic-Â�income experiment features among the “ten big ideas” put forward by its Â�Future of Work Commission (2016: 9). And its leader (since 2014) Andrew Â�Little, former head of New Zealand’s largest trade Â�union (the Engineering, Printing, and Manufacturing Union, or EPMU), has expressed his interest in a basic income on several occasions (Rankin 2016: 34). 73. On the Dutch debate, see Van Parijs 1988, Groot and van der Veen 2000. 74. Even though the motion explicÂ�itly used the expression “basic income,” it actually referred to a negative income tax.

Berlin: Avinus Verlag. Fumagalli, Andrea, and Maurizio Lazzarotto, eds. 1999. Tute bianche. Disoccupazione di massa e reddito di cittadinanza. Rome: Derive Approdi. Furukubo, Sakura. 2014. “Basic Income and Unpaid Care Work in Japan.” In Yannick Vanderborght and Toru Yamamori, eds., Basic Income in Japan: Prospects of a Radical Idea in a Transforming Welfare State, 131–139. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Â�Future of Work Commission. 2016. “Ten Big Ideas from Our Consultation: Snapshot of Work to Date.” March, Â�Labour Party, Wellington, New Zealand. https://Â�d3n8a8pro7vhmx╉ .Â�cloudfront╉.Â�net╉/Â�nzlabour╉/Â�pages╉/Â�4237╉/Â�attachments╉/Â�original╉/Â�1 458691880╉/ Â�Future╉_Â�of╉_Â�Work╉ _Â�Ten ╉_ Â�Big ╉_ Â�Ideas ╉_Â�sm╉.Â�pdf ╉?Â�1 458691880. 340 B ibliogra p hy Galbraith, John Kenneth. 1958.


pages: 161 words: 39,526

Applied Artificial Intelligence: A Handbook for Business Leaders by Mariya Yao, Adelyn Zhou, Marlene Jia

Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, business intelligence, business process, call centre, chief data officer, computer vision, conceptual framework, en.wikipedia.org, future of work, industrial robot, Internet of things, iterative process, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Marc Andreessen, natural language processing, new economy, pattern recognition, performance metric, price discrimination, randomized controlled trial, recommendation engine, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, Silicon Valley, skunkworks, software is eating the world, source of truth, speech recognition, statistical model, strong AI, technological singularity

If you love to drive innovation by combining data, technology, design, and people, and to solve real problems at an enterprise scale, this is your playbook. There are plenty of technical tomes on the market for engineers and researchers who want to master the nitty-gritty details of modern algorithms and toolsets. You can also find plenty of general interest content for the public about the impact of AI on our society and the future of work. This book is a balance between the two. We won’t overload you with details on how to debug your code, but we also won’t bore you with endless generalizations that don’t help you make concrete business decisions. Instead, we teach you how to lead successful AI initiatives by prioritizing the right opportunities, building a diverse team of experts, conducting strategic experiments, and consciously designing your solutions to benefit both your organization and society as a whole.


pages: 121 words: 36,908

Four Futures: Life After Capitalism by Peter Frase

Airbnb, basic income, bitcoin, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, cryptocurrency, deindustrialization, Edward Snowden, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, fixed income, full employment, future of work, high net worth, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), iterative process, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, litecoin, mass incarceration, means of production, Occupy movement, pattern recognition, peak oil, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-work, postindustrial economy, price mechanism, private military company, Ray Kurzweil, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart meter, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The Future of Employment, Thomas Malthus, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, Wolfgang Streeck

In 2013, a US government observatory recorded that global concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide had reached 400 parts per million for the first time in recorded history.1 This threshold, which the Earth had not passed in as many as 3 million years, heralds accelerating climate change over the coming century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts diminishing sea ice, acidification of the oceans, and increasing frequency of droughts and extreme storm events.2 At the same time, news of technological breakthroughs in the context of high unemployment and stagnant wages has produced anxious warnings about the effects of automation on the future of work. In early 2014, Massachusetts Institute of Technology professors Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee published The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies.3 They surveyed a future in which computer and robotics technology replaces human labor not just in traditional domains such as agriculture and manufacturing, but also in sectors ranging from medicine and law to transportation.


pages: 429 words: 114,726

The Computer Boys Take Over: Computers, Programmers, and the Politics of Technical Expertise by Nathan L. Ensmenger

barriers to entry, business process, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, deskilling, Donald Knuth, Firefox, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Grace Hopper, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, job satisfaction, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, loose coupling, new economy, Norbert Wiener, pattern recognition, performance metric, Philip Mirowski, post-industrial society, Productivity paradox, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Shoshana Zuboff, sorting algorithm, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the market place, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thorstein Veblen, Turing machine, Von Neumann architecture, Y2K

Andrew Pollack, “Year 2000 Problem Tests Professionalism of Programmers,” New York Times (May 3, 1999): C1; Mark Manion and William M. Evan, “The Y2K Problem: Technological Risk and Professional Responsibility,” ACM SIGCAS Computers and Society 29, no. 4 (1999): 24–29. 16. John Shore, “Why I Never Met a Programmer I Could Trust,” Communications of the ACM 31, no. 4 (1988): 372. 17. Shoshana Zuboff, In the Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power (New York: Basic Books, 1988). 18. Thomas Gieryn, “Boundary-Work and the Demarcation of Science from Non-Science: Strains and Interests in Professional Ideologies of Scientists,” American Sociological Review 48, no. 4 (1983): 781–795. 19. Ibid. 20. Andrei P. Ershov, “Aesthetics and the Human Factor in Programming,” Communications of the ACM 15, no. 7 (1972): 502. 21. Gieryn, “Boundary work,” 792. 22.

Zabusky, Stacia, and Stephen Barley. Redefining Success: Ethnographic Observations on the Careers of Technicians. In Broken Ladders: Managerial Careers in the New Economy, ed. Paul Osterman, 185–214. New York: Oxford University Press, 1996. Zaphyr, P. A. “The Science of Hypology” (letter to editor). Communications of the ACM 2 (1) (1959): 4. Zuboff, Shoshana. In the Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power. New York: Basic Books, 1988. Zussman, Robert. Mechanics of the middle class: Work and politics among American engineers. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985. Index Abbott, Andrew, 234 ACM (Association for Computing Machinery) academic orientation of, 173–174, 191 Communications of the ACM, 101, 114–115, 173, 182 conflict with DPMA, 177, 182, 189, 196 Education Committee, 118, 173, 234 history of, 170–175 Journal of the ACM, 173 membership statistics, 170–171 Adaptive programming.


pages: 130 words: 43,665

Powerful: Teams, Leaders and the Culture of Freedom and Responsibility by Patty McCord

call centre, future of work, job satisfaction, late fees, Silicon Valley, Skype, the scientific method, women in the workforce

Through my decades-long working relationship with Reed Hastings, I learned to question everything and to think like an innovator. Netflix was the best laboratory ever. Special thanks to all the Netflix employees past and present for their constant focus on company culture and collaboration and for letting me share some of their stories. My mom and my sister are constant models of powerful women. My kids, Tristan, Franny, and Rose, have inspired me to influence the future of work for them. Lastly, Michael Chamberlain, thanks for believing in me.


Battling Eight Giants: Basic Income Now by Guy Standing

basic income, Bernie Sanders, centre right, collective bargaining, decarbonisation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, full employment, future of work, Gini coefficient, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, labour market flexibility, Lao Tzu, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, open economy, pension reform, precariat, quantitative easing, rent control, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, universal basic income, Y Combinator

Reed, A Basic Income for All: From Desirability to Feasibility, London: Compass, January 2019. 17 For an important contribution to the fund approach, see A. Painter, J. Thorold and J. Cooke, Pathways to a Universal Basic Income, London: Royal Society of Arts, 2018. 18 C. Roberts and M. Lawrence, Our Common Wealth: A Citizens Wealth Fund for the UK, London: IPPR, 2018. 19 Standing, Plunder of the Commons. 20 World Bank, World Development Report: The Future of Work, Washington DC: World Bank, October 2018, p. 111. 21 I. Marinescu, ‘No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs’, Roosevelt Institute, New York, May 2018. 22 A. Leigh, ‘Who Benefits from the Earned Income Tax Credit? Incidence among Recipients, Co-workers and Firms’, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy 10 (1), May 2010; A. Nichols and J.


pages: 387 words: 119,409

Work Rules!: Insights From Inside Google That Will Transform How You Live and Lead by Laszlo Bock

Airbnb, Albert Einstein, AltaVista, Atul Gawande, Black Swan, book scanning, Burning Man, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, citizen journalism, clean water, correlation coefficient, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, Google X / Alphabet X, Googley, helicopter parent, immigration reform, Internet Archive, longitudinal study, Menlo Park, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, nudge unit, PageRank, Paul Buchheit, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Rana Plaza, random walk, Richard Thaler, Rubik’s Cube, self-driving car, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, six sigma, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, survivorship bias, TaskRabbit, The Wisdom of Crowds, Tony Hsieh, Turing machine, winner-take-all economy, Y2K

In the movie, programmer Peter Gibbons describes his job to a hypnotherapist: Peter: So I was sitting in my cubicle today, and I realized, ever since I started working, every single day of my life has been worse than the day before it. So that means that every single day that you see me, that’s on the worst day of my life. Dr. Swanson: What about today? Is today the worst day of your life? Peter: Yeah. Dr. Swanson: Wow, that’s messed up.14 I thought of these vastly different examples when a reporter from CNN International called for an article about the future of work. She argued that the model exemplified by places like Google—what I’ll call a “high-freedom” approach where employees are given great latitude—was the way of the future. Top-down, hierarchical, command-and-control models of management—“low-freedom” environments—would soon fade away. Someday, perhaps. But soon? I wasn’t so sure. Command-oriented, low-freedom management is common because it’s profitable, it requires less effort, and most managers are terrified of the alternative.

On November 3, 2012, he was ranked number one in the world in daily total kills in Assassin’s Creed III on Xbox. He owns a lot of comic books. A lot. Website: workrules.net Google+: plus.google.com/+LaszloBock LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/laszlobock Twitter: twitter.com/LaszloBock2718 Praise for Laszlo Bock and WORK RULES! “WORK RULES! offers a bold, inspiring, and actionable vision that will transform the future of work. It should be mandatory reading for everyone who leads, manages, or has a job.” —Adam Grant, author of Give and Take “Laszlo Bock’s book is a dazzling revelation: at once an all-access backstage pass to one of the smartest organizations on the planet, and also an immensely useful blueprint for creating a culture of creativity. It should be given to every leader, every entrepreneur, every manager, every student, and every human being who wants to understand how to build a successful, cohesive, high-performing workplace.”


pages: 460 words: 131,579

Masters of Management: How the Business Gurus and Their Ideas Have Changed the World—for Better and for Worse by Adrian Wooldridge

affirmative action, barriers to entry, Black Swan, blood diamonds, borderless world, business climate, business cycle, business intelligence, business process, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Exxon Valdez, financial deregulation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, George Gilder, global supply chain, industrial cluster, intangible asset, job satisfaction, job-hopping, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Just-in-time delivery, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, lake wobegon effect, Long Term Capital Management, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, McMansion, means of production, Menlo Park, mobile money, Naomi Klein, Netflix Prize, Network effects, new economy, Nick Leeson, Norman Macrae, patent troll, Ponzi scheme, popular capitalism, post-industrial society, profit motive, purchasing power parity, Ralph Nader, recommendation engine, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, science of happiness, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, supply-chain management, technoutopianism, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Davenport, Tony Hsieh, too big to fail, wealth creators, women in the workforce, young professional, Zipcar

Talented people may think that their brainpower allows them to walk upon water, but in reality many are walking on the stones that their employers have conveniently placed beneath them. Organizations are also social institutions. Daniel Pink, the most prominent exponent of the free-agent school, likes to talk about Karl Marx’s revenge—the workers now have the means of production in their hands in the form of laptops and BlackBerrys. But people are social animals. They enjoy the rituals of office life. They like working with their colleagues. The future of work will be dictated by the human need to belong as much as by the logic of technology. What is happening at the moment is more complicated than the rise of “free agents.” Rather than dissolving into atomized individuals, organizations are splitting into two groups: an inner core of full-time workers and a periphery—or perhaps a penumbra—of part-time and contract workers. It is this growing distinction between the core and the penumbra rather than the rise of the free agent that is the most distinctive change in the modern workforce.

Clayton Christensen, Curtis Johnson, and Michael Horn, Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns (New York: McGraw Hill, 2008). CHAPTER 14: THE COMMON TOAD 1. Charles Handy, Myself and Other More Important Matters (New York: American Management Association, 2008), p. 124. 2. Ken Favaro, Per-Ola Karisson, and Gary Neilson, “CEO succession 2000–2009: A decade of convergence and compression,” Strategy + Business, Summer 2010, no. 59. 3. Lynda Gratton, Shift: The Future of Work Is Already Here (London: Collins, 2011), p. 249. 4. Rachel Botsman and Roo Rogers, The Rise of Collaborative Consumption (New York: HarperBusiness), pp. 168–69. 5. Wendell Cox, “Decade of the Telecommute,” New Geography, October 5, 2010. 6. Michael Burchell and Jennifer Robin, The Great Workplace: How to Build It, How to Keep It, and Why It Matters (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2011), p. 24. 7.


pages: 742 words: 137,937

The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts by Richard Susskind, Daniel Susskind

23andMe, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, AI winter, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, Andrew Keen, Atul Gawande, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, Bill Joy: nanobots, business process, business process outsourcing, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, Clapham omnibus, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer age, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, death of newspapers, disintermediation, Douglas Hofstadter, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Filter Bubble, full employment, future of work, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Hacker Ethic, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, James Hargreaves, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, lifelogging, lump of labour, Marshall McLuhan, Metcalfe’s law, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Network effects, optical character recognition, Paul Samuelson, personalized medicine, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, semantic web, Shoshana Zuboff, Skype, social web, speech recognition, spinning jenny, strong AI, supply-chain management, telepresence, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, Turing test, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, young professional

But to think clearly about the future and sustainability of any given job, we should start by thinking about its constituent tasks and move on from there. As the example with the doctor shows, changes in a person’s job start from an underlying churn and adjustment in the bundle of tasks that make it up. Some tasks are lost (to other people or to machines) and others are gained. This has far-reaching consequences for the future of work, and in sections 7.3 and 7.4 we develop these ideas more fully. There, we use them to provide an answer to pressing questions about ‘technological unemployment’—whether, as machines become increasingly capable, there will be any reasonably-paid work left for people to do. There is a further, practical reason for thinking in this way. If we proceed with a jobs- rather than a task-mindset, we are encouraged to think of professional work in terms of artificial, self-contained compartments.

And so, while there may no longer be jobs for sausage-preparers (those have been lost to machines), there will be more jobs for bun-bakers and hotdog-compilers, because the machines have given rise to an increase in the overall output of hotdogs. If enough of these new jobs are created to balance the loss of jobs in preparing sausages, and if the old sausage-preparers can learn the skills required for these new jobs, we do not need to worry about the future of work at this company. The newly created jobs can absorb those whose jobs were destroyed. We concede that the hotdog story is a simplification of this corner of the food industry.26 But it does demonstrate that technology can be both destructive, by displacing people from their jobs, and creative, in that it can give rise to new jobs. The next step in this story is the important one. So far we have assumed that each job is made up of only one task.


pages: 170 words: 49,193

The People vs Tech: How the Internet Is Killing Democracy (And How We Save It) by Jamie Bartlett

Ada Lovelace, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrew Keen, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, central bank independence, Chelsea Manning, cloud computing, computer vision, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dominic Cummings, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Filter Bubble, future of work, gig economy, global village, Google bus, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, information retrieval, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Julian Assange, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mittelstand, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, off grid, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, payday loans, Peter Thiel, prediction markets, QR code, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Renaissance Technologies, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Mercer, Ross Ulbricht, Sam Altman, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, smart cities, smart contracts, smart meter, Snapchat, Stanford prison experiment, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, strong AI, TaskRabbit, technological singularity, technoutopianism, Ted Kaczynski, the medium is the message, the scientific method, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, too big to fail, ultimatum game, universal basic income, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey, Y Combinator

Research from Georg Graetz and Guy Michaels has found that, while manufacturing employment has fallen in most developed countries between 1996 and 2012, it has fallen less sharply where investment in robotics has been greatest. 4 ‘Automation and anxiety’, The Economist, 25 June 2016. 5 According to Martin Ford, futurist and author of the award winning book Rise of the Robots it won’t happen immediately but within a decade or so. 6 Stick Shift: Autonomous Vehicles, Driving Jobs, and the Future of Work, March 2017, Centre for Global Policy Solutions. 7 Mark Fahey, ‘Driverless cars will kill the most jobs in select US states’, www.cnbc.com, 2 September 2016. 8 ‘Real wages have been falling for longest period for at least 50 years, ONS says’, Guardian, 31 January 2014. ‘The World’s 8 Richest Men Are Now as Wealthy as Half the World’s Population’, www.fortune.com, 16 January 2017. 9 David Madland, ‘Growth and the Middle Class’ (Spring 2011), Democracy Journal, 20. 10 Richard Wilkinson & Kate Pickett, The Spirit Level (Penguin, 2009). 11 Wilkinson & Pickett, The Spirit Level, pp.272-273. 12 Fukuyama, Political Order and Political Decay. 13 Nicholas Carr, The Glass Cage (Bodley Head, 2015).


pages: 976 words: 235,576

The Meritocracy Trap: How America's Foundational Myth Feeds Inequality, Dismantles the Middle Class, and Devours the Elite by Daniel Markovits

"Robert Solow", 8-hour work day, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, affirmative action, Anton Chekhov, asset-backed security, assortative mating, basic income, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, business cycle, capital asset pricing model, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, computer age, corporate governance, corporate raider, crony capitalism, David Brooks, deskilling, Detroit bankruptcy, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Emanuel Derman, equity premium, European colonialism, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, helicopter parent, high net worth, hiring and firing, income inequality, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, invention of agriculture, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, medical residency, minimum wage unemployment, Myron Scholes, Nate Silver, New Economic Geography, new economy, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, precariat, purchasing power parity, rent-seeking, Richard Florida, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, school choice, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, six sigma, Skype, stakhanovite, stem cell, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, telemarketer, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, Thomas Davenport, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, total factor productivity, transaction costs, traveling salesman, universal basic income, unpaid internship, Vanguard fund, War on Poverty, Winter of Discontent, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional, zero-sum game

Osborne, “Job Automation May Threaten Half of U.S. Workforce,” Bloomberg, March 12, 2014, accessed November 18, 2018, www.bloomberg.com/graphics/infographics/job-automation-threatens-workforce.html. displaced by automation by 2030: James Manyika et al., “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: What the Future of Work Will Mean for Jobs, Skills, and Wages,” McKinsey Global Institute, November 2017, accessed October 26 2018, www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-jobs-skills-and-wages. even a sea change: Other explanations for labor market polarization that emphasize forces besides technological innovation of course also exist. Candidates include globalization, declining union membership, and changes in tax policy. All these causes certainly contribute to the demise of the middle class.


pages: 196 words: 54,339

Team Human by Douglas Rushkoff

1960s counterculture, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Berlin Wall, big-box store, bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, carbon footprint, clean water, clockwork universe, cloud computing, collective bargaining, corporate personhood, disintermediation, Donald Trump, drone strike, European colonialism, Filter Bubble, full employment, future of work, game design, gig economy, Google bus, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, invention of writing, invisible hand, iterative process, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, life extension, lifelogging, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, new economy, patient HM, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, Peter Thiel, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, theory of mind, trade route, Travis Kalanick, Turing test, universal basic income, Vannevar Bush, winner-take-all economy, zero-sum game

cooperative businesses are giving even established US corporations a run for their money Brad Tuttle, “WinCo: Meet the Low-Key, Low Cost, Grocery Chain Being Called ‘Wal-mart’s Worse Nightmare,’ ” Time, August 7, 2013. “The Opposite of Wal-mart,” Economist, May 3, 2007. Bouree Lam, “How REI’s Co-Op Retail Model Helps Its Bottom Line,” The Atlantic, March 21, 2017. In these “platform cooperatives,” participants own the platform they’re using Trebor Scholz and Nathan Schneider, Ours to Hack and to Own: The Rise of Platform Cooperativism, A New Vision for the Future of Work and a Fairer Internet (New York: OR Books, 2017). 52. Luckily, according to this narrative, the automobile provided a safe, relatively clean alternative Stephen Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything (New York: William Morrow, 2005). The problem with the story is that it’s not true Brandon Keim, “Did Cars Save Our Cities from Horses?”


The New Class War: Saving Democracy From the Metropolitan Elite by Michael Lind

affirmative action, anti-communist, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, business cycle, capital controls, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, centre right, collective bargaining, commoditize, corporate governance, crony capitalism, deindustrialization, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, future of work, global supply chain, guest worker program, Haight Ashbury, illegal immigration, immigration reform, invisible hand, knowledge economy, liberal world order, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, means of production, moral panic, Nate Silver, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open borders, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, Ralph Nader, regulatory arbitrage, rent-seeking, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, trade liberalization, union organizing, universal basic income, upwardly mobile, WikiLeaks, Wolfgang Streeck, working poor

For earlier versions of the argument in this chapter, see Michael Lind, “The Coming Realignment: Cities, Class, and Ideology After Social Conservatism,” Breakthrough Journal, no. 4, Summer 2014; and Michael Lind, “Cities without Nations,” National Review, September 26, 2016. 2. Saskia Sassen, The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001); Saskia Sassen, “The Global City: Introducing a Concept,” Brown Journal of World Affairs 11, no. 2 (Winter/Spring, 2005). 3. Greg Rosalsky, “What the Future of Work Means for Cities,” NPR, Planet Money, January 15, 2019; David Autor, “Work of the Past, Work of the Future,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 25588, February 2019. 4. Richard Florida, “The High Inequality of U.S. Metro Areas Compared to Countries,” CityLab.com, October 9, 2012. 5. William H. Frey, “The Suburbs: Not Just for White People Anymore,” New Republic, November 24, 2014. 6.


pages: 519 words: 142,646

Track Changes by Matthew G. Kirschenbaum

active measures, Apple II, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Buckminster Fuller, commoditize, computer age, corporate governance, David Brooks, dematerialisation, Donald Knuth, Douglas Hofstadter, Dynabook, East Village, en.wikipedia.org, feminist movement, forensic accounting, future of work, Google Earth, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Haight Ashbury, HyperCard, Jason Scott: textfiles.com, Joan Didion, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, low earth orbit, mail merge, Marshall McLuhan, Mother of all demos, New Journalism, Norman Mailer, pattern recognition, pink-collar, popular electronics, RAND corporation, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, social web, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Ted Nelson, text mining, thinkpad, Turing complete, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, Y2K, Year of Magical Thinking

The colophon reads, “A book composed by hand in 10 point Garamond Bold, printed by the poet, me, on a Vandercook 219, at the New College Print Shop, sometime in June and July, wanting to finish.” (That last phrase an echo of the title.) There are no other overt references to word processing among the fifteen other poems in the book. The copy I consulted is in the Fales Library at New York University. 17. Shoshana Zuboff, In the Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power (New York: Basic Books, 1988), 179–180. 18. Thomas Haigh, “Remembering the Office of the Future,” IEEE Computer Society 28, no. 4 (2006): 7. 19. Thomas J. Anderson and William R. Trotter, Word Processing (New York: Amacom, 1974), 5; emphasis in original. 20. George R. Simpson, quoted in ibid., 5. 21. Ibid., 1. 22. Walter A. Kleinschrod, Word Processing: An AMA Management Briefing (New York: Amacom, 1974), 2. 23.

Ben Kafka perceptively scrutinizes the film in his The Demon of Writing: Powers and Failures of Paperwork (New York: Zone Books, 2012), and places particular emphasis on the closing catechism: “What if we shifted the emphasis just a little bit?” asks Kafka. “From ‘machines should work, people should think’ to ‘machines should work, people should think.’ Is it possible that the film might be trying to warn us against its own techno-utopianism?” (146–150). 23. Frank M. Knox, Managing Paperwork: A Key to Productivity (New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold, 1980), ix. 24. See Zuboff, In the Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power (New York: Basic Books, 1988), 301–310. 25. Knox, Managing Paperwork, ix. 26. See Thomas Haigh, “Remembering the Office of the Future,” IEEE Computer Society 28, no.4 (2006): 8. 27. DeLoca and Kalow, The Romance Division, 72. 28. Whether or not Steinhilper also introduced the English-language term “word processing” at the same time is difficult to ascertain conclusively; the claim that he did so is tendered in his own memoir, Don’t Talk—Do It: From Flying to Word Processing (Bromley, UK: Independent Books, 2006). 29.


pages: 176 words: 55,819

The Start-Up of You: Adapt to the Future, Invest in Yourself, and Transform Your Career by Reid Hoffman, Ben Casnocha

Airbnb, Andy Kessler, Black Swan, business intelligence, Cal Newport, Clayton Christensen, commoditize, David Brooks, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, fear of failure, follow your passion, future of work, game design, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joi Ito, late fees, lateral thinking, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, out of africa, Paul Graham, paypal mafia, Peter Thiel, recommendation engine, Richard Bolles, risk tolerance, rolodex, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social web, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Tony Hsieh, transaction costs

We’ll reply to and promote the best questions, comments, or ideas that circulate on Twitter. See you online! Further Reading Below is more information on the books referenced in the earlier chapters, as well as a few additional recommendations on related themes. On our website, we link to each of these books, as well as to numerous other articles, blogs, Twitter feeds, and more. Free Agent Nation: The Future of Working for Yourself By Daniel H. Pink In 2002, Pink made popular the phrase “free agent” to describe the self-employment phenomenon in the United States. At the time, Pink estimated that one-quarter to one-third of American workers worked as independent contractors. He explores their attitudes toward autonomy, informal networks, self-constructed safety nets, and more. The mentality of the self-employed people Pink profiles is relevant to anyone who wants to think more like an entrepreneur.


pages: 196 words: 55,862

Riding for Deliveroo: Resistance in the New Economy by Callum Cant

Airbnb, call centre, collective bargaining, deskilling, Elon Musk, future of work, gig economy, housing crisis, illegal immigration, information asymmetry, invention of the steam engine, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, new economy, Pearl River Delta, race to the bottom, ride hailing / ride sharing, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, strikebreaker, union organizing, Winter of Discontent, women in the workforce

Despite being hyper-precarious, despite being young, despite being migrants, they have shown that organized class power isn’t a thing of the past. The strike weapon is being transformed in the laboratory of platform capitalism, as new management tactics and new technologies employed by the ruling class run up against working-class self-organization. Food-platform workers, across national borders, are responding to the ‘future of work’ with the future of class struggle. Their fight is beginning to indicate a path to renewal for the whole working-class movement, and proves that the changing composition of the working class can provide new opportunities for socialist politics, even as it demolishes old certainties. So, their experiences deserve the closest possible analysis – because that movement is the best chance we have of getting out of the mess of the twenty-first century in one piece.


pages: 918 words: 257,605

The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by Shoshana Zuboff

Amazon Web Services, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, blue-collar work, book scanning, Broken windows theory, California gold rush, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, citizen journalism, cloud computing, collective bargaining, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, corporate personhood, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, dogs of the Dow, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, facts on the ground, Ford paid five dollars a day, future of work, game design, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, hive mind, impulse control, income inequality, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Jean Tirole, job automation, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, linked data, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, means of production, multi-sided market, Naomi Klein, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Occupy movement, off grid, PageRank, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, pattern recognition, Paul Buchheit, performance metric, Philip Mirowski, precision agriculture, price mechanism, profit maximization, profit motive, recommendation engine, refrigerator car, RFID, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Bork, Robert Mercer, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, slashdot, smart cities, Snapchat, social graph, social web, software as a service, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, structural adjustment programs, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, two-sided market, union organizing, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, winner-take-all economy, Wolfgang Streeck

There is no end of history; each generation must assert its will and imagination as new threats require us to retry the case in every age. Perhaps because there was no one else to ask, the plant manager’s voice was weighted with urgency and frustration: “What’s it gonna be? Which way are we supposed to go? I must know now. There is no time to spare.” I wanted the answers, too, and so I began the project that thirty years ago became my first book, In the Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power. That work turned out to be the opening chapter in what became a lifelong quest to answer the question “Can the digital future be our home?” It has been many years since that warm southern evening, but the oldest questions have come roaring back with a vengeance. The digital realm is overtaking and redefining everything familiar even before we have had a chance to ponder and decide.

Keith Naughton and Spencer Soper, “Alexa, Take the Wheel: Ford Models to Put Amazon in Driver Seat,” Bloomberg.com, January 5, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-05/steering-wheel-shopping-arrives-as-alexa-hitches-ride-with-ford; Ryan Knutson and Laura Stevens, “Amazon and Google Consider Turning Smart Speakers into Home Phones,” Wall Street Journal, February 15, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-google-dial-up-plans-to-turn-smart-speakers-into-home-phones-1487154781; Kevin McLaughlin, “AWS Takes Aim at Call Center Industry,” Information, February 28, 2017, https://www.theinformation.com/aws-takes-aim-at-call-center-industry. 45. Lucas Matney, “Siri-Creator Shows Off First Public Demo of Viv, ‘The Intelligent Interface for Everything,’” TechCrunch, http://social.techcrunch.com/2016/05/09/siri-creator-shows-off-first-public-demo-of-viv-the-intelligent-interface-for-everything. 46. Shoshana Zuboff, In the Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power (New York: Basic, 1988), 381. 47. Zuboff, In the Age of the Smart Machine, 362–86. 48. Zuboff, 383. 49. The five-factor model has become the standard since the 1980s because it lends itself easily to computational analysis. The model is based on a taxonomy of personality traits along five dimensions: extraversion (the tendency to be outgoing and energetic while seeking stimulation in the company of others), agreeableness (warmth, compassion, and cooperativeness), conscientiousness (the tendency to exhibit self-discipline, organization, and achievement orientation), neuroticism (the susceptibility to unpleasant emotions), and openness to experience (the tendency to be intellectually curious, creative, and open to feelings). 50.

Taylor Soper, “MIT Spinoff Tenacity Raises $1.5M to Improve Workplace Productivity with ‘Social Physics,’” GeekWire, February 10, 2016, https://www.geekwire.com/2016/tenacity-raises-1-5m; Ron Miller, “Endor Emerges from MIT Research with Unique Predictive Analytics Tech,” TechCrunch, March 8, 2017, http://social.techcrunch.com/2017/03/08/endor-emerges-from-mit-research-with-unique-predictive-analytics-tech; Rob Matheson, “Watch Your Tone,” MIT News, January 20, 2016, http://news.mit.edu/2016/startup-cogito-voice-analytics-call-centers-ptsd-0120. 23. Ben Waber, People Analytics: How Social Sensing Technology Will Transform Business and What It Tells Us About the Future of Work (Upper Saddle River, NJ: FT Press, 2013). 24. Ron Miller, “New Firm Combines Wearables and Data to Improve Decision Making,” TechCrunch, February 24, 2015, http://social.techcrunch.com/2015/02/24/new-firm-combines-wearables-and-data-to-improve-decision-making. 25. Miller, “New Firm”; Alexandra Bosanac, “How ‘People Analytics’ Is Transforming Human Resources,” Canadian Business, October 26, 2015, http://www.canadianbusiness.com/innovation/how-people-analytics-is-transforming-human-resources. 26.


pages: 243 words: 61,237

To Sell Is Human: The Surprising Truth About Moving Others by Daniel H. Pink

always be closing, Atul Gawande, barriers to entry, business cycle, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, complexity theory, Credit Default Swap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, disintermediation, future of work, George Akerlof, information asymmetry, Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, out of africa, Richard Thaler, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Steve Jobs, The Market for Lemons, Upton Sinclair, Wall-E, zero-sum game

Kelley, Slavica Singer, and Mike Herrington, Global Entrepreneurship Monitor 2011 Global Report (2012), 12. Available at http://gemconsortium.org/docs/2409/gem-2011-global-report. 5. Adam Davidson, “Don’t Mock the Artisanal-Pickle Makers,” New York Times Magazine, February 15, 2012. 6. “The Return of Artisanal Employment,” Economist, October 31, 2011. A handful of you might remember that I made a similar argument a decade ago in Daniel H. Pink, Free Agent Nation: The Future of Working for Yourself (New York: Business Plus, 2002). 7. The latest Etsy data are available at http://www.etsy.com/press. 8. Robert Atkinson, “It’s the Digital Economy, Stupid,” Fast Company, January 8, 2009. 9. Carl Franzen, “Kickstarter Expects to Provide More Funding to the Arts Than NEA,” Talking Points Memo, February 24, 2012, available at http://idealab.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/02/kickstarter-expects-to-provide-more-funding-to-the-arts-than-nea.php; Carl Franzen, “NEA Weighs In on Kickstarter Funding Debate,” Talking Points Memo, February 27, 2012, available at http://idealab.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/02/the-nea-responds-to-kickstarter-funding-debate.php.


pages: 145 words: 40,897

Gamification by Design: Implementing Game Mechanics in Web and Mobile Apps by Gabe Zichermann, Christopher Cunningham

airport security, future of work, game design, lateral thinking, minimum viable product, pattern recognition, Ruby on Rails, social graph, social web, urban planning, web application

After childhood, games were relegated to the fringes of our lives—the downtime, the fun between the drudgery of work, the opposite of real life. But the tides are turning. Games have begun to influence our lives every day. They affect everything from how we vacation to how we train for marathons, learn a new language, and manage our finances. What we once called “play” at the periphery of our lives is quickly becoming the way we interact. Games are the future of work, fun is the new “responsible,” and the movement that is leading the way is gamification. Gamification Bandied about as the marketing buzzword of our time, gamification can mean different things to different people. Some view it as making games explicitly to advertise products or services. Others think of it as creating 3D virtual worlds that drive behavioral change or provide a method for training users in complex systems.


pages: 270 words: 64,235

Effective Programming: More Than Writing Code by Jeff Atwood

AltaVista, Amazon Web Services, barriers to entry, cloud computing, endowment effect, Firefox, future of work, game design, Google Chrome, gravity well, job satisfaction, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, loss aversion, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Merlin Mann, Minecraft, Paul Buchheit, Paul Graham, price anchoring, race to the bottom, recommendation engine, science of happiness, Skype, social software, Steve Jobs, web application, Y Combinator, zero-sum game

Nothing is more exciting for me than the prospect of adding international members to the Stack Overflow team. The development of Stack Overflow should be reflective of what Stack Overflow is: an international effort of like-minded — and dare I say totally awesome — programmers. I wish I could hire each and every one of you. OK, maybe I’m a little biased. But to me, that’s how awesome the Stack Overflow community is. I believe remote development represents the future of work. If we have to spend a little time figuring out how this stuff works, and maybe even make some mistakes along the way, it’s worth it. As far as I’m concerned, the future is now. Why wait? * * * Become a Hyperink reader. Get a special surprise. Like the book? Support our author and leave a comment! VI. Your Batcave: Effective Workspaces for Programmers The Programmer’s Bill of Rights “Demand your rights as a programmer!


pages: 254 words: 69,276

The Metric Society: On the Quantification of the Social by Steffen Mau

Airbnb, cognitive bias, collaborative consumption, connected car, crowdsourcing, double entry bookkeeping, future of work, income inequality, informal economy, invisible hand, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, lifelogging, Mark Zuckerberg, mittelstand, moral hazard, personalized medicine, positional goods, principal–agent problem, profit motive, QR code, reserve currency, school choice, selection bias, sharing economy, smart cities, the scientific method, Uber for X, web of trust, Wolfgang Streeck

Stefanie Duttweiler, Robert Gugutzer, Jan-Hendrick Passoth and Jörg Strübing, Bielefeld: Transcript (pp. 45-62). Voß, G. Günter and Kerstin Rieder (2013) ‘The working customer – a fundamental change in service work’ in Customers at Work, ed. W. Dunkel and F. Kleemann, London: Palgrave Macmillan. Waber, Ben (2013) People Analytics: How Social Sensing Technology Will Transform Business and What It Tells Us about the Future of Work, Upper Saddle River: Financial Times Press. Wachtel, Howard K. (1998) ‘Student evaluation of college teaching effectiveness: a brief review’, Assessment & Evaluation in Higher Education 23/2 (pp. 191-212). Wanner, Claudia, and Herbert Fromme (2016) ‘Läuft bei Generali’, Süddeutsche Zeitung (21 June, p. 19). Weber, Max (1930 [1906]) The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, trans.


pages: 245 words: 64,288

Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That's OK: How to Survive the Economic Collapse and Be Happy by Pistono, Federico

3D printing, Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, bioinformatics, Buckminster Fuller, cloud computing, computer vision, correlation does not imply causation, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Firefox, future of work, George Santayana, global village, Google Chrome, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, illegal immigration, income inequality, information retrieval, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, jimmy wales, job automation, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, Lao Tzu, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, Loebner Prize, longitudinal study, means of production, Narrative Science, natural language processing, new economy, Occupy movement, patent troll, pattern recognition, peak oil, post scarcity, QR code, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, RFID, Rodney Brooks, selection bias, self-driving car, slashdot, smart cities, software as a service, software is eating the world, speech recognition, Steven Pinker, strong AI, technological singularity, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, women in the workforce

The time when with a high school education, a lot of good will, and hard work got you a decent middle class lifestyle are long gone. Those jobs that have been outsourced are not coming back, period. And even those overseas jobs are now threatened by the rapid advances in automation and robotics. The more companies automate, because of the need to increase their productivity, the more jobs will be lost, forever. The future of work and innovation is not in the past that we know, but in unfamiliar territory of the future that is yet to come. New and exciting fields are emerging every day. Synthetic biology, neurocomputation, 3D printing, contour crafting, molecular engineering, bioinformatics, life extension, robotics, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, machine learning, these new frontiers that are rapidly evolving and are just the beginning of a new, amazing era of our species that will bring about the greatest transformation of all time.


pages: 222 words: 70,132

Move Fast and Break Things: How Facebook, Google, and Amazon Cornered Culture and Undermined Democracy by Jonathan Taplin

1960s counterculture, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, American Legislative Exchange Council, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, back-to-the-land, barriers to entry, basic income, battle of ideas, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, bitcoin, Brewster Kahle, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, Clayton Christensen, commoditize, creative destruction, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, data is the new oil, David Brooks, David Graeber, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, equal pay for equal work, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of journalism, future of work, George Akerlof, George Gilder, Google bus, Hacker Ethic, Howard Rheingold, income inequality, informal economy, information asymmetry, information retrieval, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, labor-force participation, life extension, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, Metcalfe’s law, Mother of all demos, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, offshore financial centre, packet switching, Paul Graham, paypal mafia, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, rent-seeking, revision control, Robert Bork, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Ross Ulbricht, Sam Altman, Sand Hill Road, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, smart grid, Snapchat, software is eating the world, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, The Chicago School, The Market for Lemons, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, transfer pricing, Travis Kalanick, trickle-down economics, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, unpaid internship, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, Y Combinator

Gordon’s well-researched text shows that the Internet has not been the productivity bounty that was promised. Sara C. Kingsley, Mary L. Gray, and Siddharth Suri, “Monopsony and the Crowd: Labor for Lemons?” Oxford Internet Institute, August 2014, ipp.oii.ox.ac.uk/2014/programme-2014/track-a/labour/sara-kingsley-mary-gray-monopsony-and. Oxford University’s Martin Programme on Technology and Employment is a critical resource for information on automation and the future of work. It can be found at www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/news/201501_Technology_Employment. Andrew Gumbel, “San Francisco’s Guerrilla Protest and Google Buses Swells into Revolt,” Guardian, January 25, 2014, www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/25/google-bus-protest-swells-to-revolt-san-francisco. Tom Perkins, “Progressive Kristallnacht Coming?” Letter to the Editor, Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2014, www.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304549504579316913982034286.


In the Age of the Smart Machine by Shoshana Zuboff

affirmative action, American ideology, blue-collar work, collective bargaining, computer age, Computer Numeric Control, conceptual framework, data acquisition, demand response, deskilling, factory automation, Ford paid five dollars a day, fudge factor, future of work, industrial robot, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, job automation, lateral thinking, linked data, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, old-boy network, optical character recognition, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, post-industrial society, RAND corporation, Shoshana Zuboff, social web, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, union organizing, zero-sum game

fi." t ve" o paa e IN THE AGE OF THE SMART MACHINE The Future of Work and Power SHOSHANA ZUBOFF BASIC BOOKS, INC., PUBLISHERS NEW YORK "Home" reprinted by permission; @ 1984 John Witte. Originally in The New Yorker. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Zuboff, Shoshana, 1 95 1- In the age of the smart machine. Includes index. 1. Automation-Economic aspects. 2. Automation-Social aspects. 3. Machinery in industry. 4. Organizational effectiveness. I. Title. HD45.2.Z83 1988 338'.06 87-47777 ISBN 0-465-03212-5 Copyright @ 1988 by Basic Books, Inc. Printed in the United States of America 88 89 90 91 HC 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 To Bob, Who hears the world's heart And has taught me much about how to listen. CONTENTS Preface xi AcknowledBments xvi i INTRODUCTION DILEMMAS OF TRANSFORMATION IN THE AGE OF THE SMART MACHINE 3 PART ONE KNOWLEDGE AND COMPUTER-MEDIA TED WORK 17 CHAPTER ONE THE LABORING BODY: SUFFERING AND SKILL IN PRODUCTION WORK 19 CHAPTER TWO THE ABSTRACTION OF INDUSTRIAL WORK 58 CHAPTER THREE THE WHITE-COLLAR BODY IN HISTORY 97 CHAPTER FOUR OFFICE TECHNOLOGY AS EXILE AND INTEGRATION 124 viii Contents CHAPTER FIVE MASTERING THE ELECTRONIC TEXT 174 PART TWO AUTHORITY: THE SPIRITUAL DIMENSION OF POWER 219 CHAPTER SIX WHAT WAS MAN AGERIAL AUTHORITY?

Must the new electronic mi- lieu engender a world in which individuals have lost control over their daily work lives? Do these visions of the future represent the price of economic success or might they signal an industrial legacy that must be overcome if intelligent technology is to yield its full value? Will the new information technology represent an opportunity for the rejuvena- tion of competitiveness, productive vitality, and organizational ingenu- ity? Which aspects of the future of working life can we predict, and which will depend upon the choices we make today? The workers outside the Star Trek Suite knew that the so-called techno- logical choices we face are really much more than that. Their consternation puts us on alert. There is a world to be lost and a world to be gained. Choices that appear to be merely technical will redefine our lives together at work. This means more than simply contemplating the implications or consequences of a new technology.


pages: 586 words: 186,548

Architects of Intelligence by Martin Ford

3D printing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Apple II, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bayesian statistics, bitcoin, business intelligence, business process, call centre, cloud computing, cognitive bias, Colonization of Mars, computer vision, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, DARPA: Urban Challenge, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ernest Rutherford, Fellow of the Royal Society, Flash crash, future of work, gig economy, Google X / Alphabet X, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hans Rosling, ImageNet competition, income inequality, industrial robot, information retrieval, job automation, John von Neumann, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, Loebner Prize, Mark Zuckerberg, Mars Rover, means of production, Mitch Kapor, natural language processing, new economy, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, phenotype, Productivity paradox, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Robert Gordon, Rodney Brooks, Sam Altman, self-driving car, sensor fusion, sentiment analysis, Silicon Valley, smart cities, social intelligence, speech recognition, statistical model, stealth mode startup, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, superintelligent machines, Ted Kaczynski, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, theory of mind, Thomas Bayes, Travis Kalanick, Turing test, universal basic income, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, working-age population, zero-sum game, Zipcar

We can get them to the point where they can imagine anything and make it happen, and they will have the tools to make it happen. More importantly, by the time they finish high school, these students will have the technical skills that will be required in the future, and they will be exposed to a different way of learning that will enable them to help themselves for the future. The final thing I want to say about the future of work is that our attitude toward learning will also have to change. Today, we operate with a sequential model of learning and working. What I mean by this is that most people spend some chunk of their lives studying and at some point, they say, “OK, we’re done studying, now we’re going to start working.” With technology accelerating and bringing in new types of capabilities, though, I think it’s very important to reconsider the sequential approach to learning.

I think it would be fair to say that most of us who work for a living in the socio-economic bracket that you and I live in, where we’re writers, scientists, or technologists, would find that if we went back thousands of years in human history, they would say “That’s not work, that’s just playing! If you’re not laboring in the fields from dawn till dusk, you’re not actually working.” So, we don’t know what the future of work is going to be like. Just because it might change fundamentally, it doesn’t mean that the idea that you would spend eight hours a day doing something economically valuable goes away. Whether we’re going to have to have some kind of universal basic income, or just see the economy working in a different way, I don’t know about that, and I’m certainly no expert on that, but I think that AI researchers should be part of that conversation.


pages: 238 words: 73,824

Makers by Chris Anderson

3D printing, Airbnb, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Apple II, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Buckminster Fuller, Build a better mousetrap, business process, commoditize, Computer Numeric Control, crowdsourcing, dark matter, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, death of newspapers, dematerialisation, Elon Musk, factory automation, Firefox, future of work, global supply chain, global village, IKEA effect, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, inventory management, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, Menlo Park, Network effects, private space industry, profit maximization, QR code, race to the bottom, Richard Feynman, Ronald Coase, Rubik’s Cube, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, slashdot, South of Market, San Francisco, spinning jenny, Startup school, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, supply-chain management, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, Whole Earth Catalog, X Prize, Y Combinator

In short, it must be like the best hardware companies and the best software companies. Atoms and bits. Maryam Alavi, vice-dean of Emery University’s Goizueta Business School, argues that the only way firms can continue to have lower transaction costs than the open market is if they become more complex internally in order to respond to the increasingly complex external market. In the Aspen Institute’s “The Future of Work,” she explained that this was due to the “law of requisite variety” in systems theory, and she argued that a system must be as complex as the environment it is working within: “There are parts of the organization that are going to become more hierarchical because of the uncertainties that they deal with or don’t deal with. And there are parts of the organization that will need to be highly dynamic, open, and changing.”36 Thus the new industrial organizational model.


pages: 260 words: 76,223

Ctrl Alt Delete: Reboot Your Business. Reboot Your Life. Your Future Depends on It. by Mitch Joel

3D printing, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, call centre, clockwatching, cloud computing, Firefox, future of work, ghettoisation, Google Chrome, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, Lean Startup, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Network effects, new economy, Occupy movement, place-making, prediction markets, pre–internet, QR code, recommendation engine, Richard Florida, risk tolerance, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, social graph, social web, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Thomas L Friedman, Tim Cook: Apple, Tony Hsieh, white picket fence, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game

We now have physical locations that look very different; a connectivity through mobile devices that allows us to work anywhere and everywhere; and platforms to keep us intimately closer to our team members and the projects that are being worked on and to provide us with an overall bird’s-eye view of what’s happening within the organization. The physical and digital realms begin to gel and morph. THE FUTURE OF WORK AND SPACE. In April 2008, The Economist ran an article titled “The New Oases,” which looked at how our newfound mobility was in the process of redefining and changing our physical work spaces: In the 20th century architecture was about specialized structures—offices for working, cafeterias for eating, and so forth. This was necessary because workers needed to be near things such as landline phones, fax machines and filing cabinets, and because the economics of building materials favored repetitive and simple structures, such as grid patterns for cubicles….


pages: 477 words: 75,408

The Economic Singularity: Artificial Intelligence and the Death of Capitalism by Calum Chace

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Airbnb, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, call centre, Chris Urmson, congestion charging, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Douglas Engelbart, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Flynn Effect, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, ImageNet competition, income inequality, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of the telephone, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, lifelogging, lump of labour, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, McJob, means of production, Milgram experiment, Narrative Science, natural language processing, new economy, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, PageRank, pattern recognition, post scarcity, post-industrial society, post-work, precariat, prediction markets, QWERTY keyboard, railway mania, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Rodney Brooks, Sam Altman, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, software is eating the world, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, Vernor Vinge, working-age population, Y Combinator, young professional

He described smart machines as an example of a “super class” of technologies which carry out a wide variety of tasks, both physical and intellectual. He illustrated the case by pointing out that machines have been grading multiple choice examinations for years, but they are now moving on to essays and unstructured text. The Millennium Project The Millennium Project was established in 1996 by a coalition of UN organisations and US academic research bodies. Its “2015-16 State of the Future” contained a section on the future of work based on a poll of 300 experts from around the world. Although they mostly thought that technology would impact employment significantly, their collective estimates for long-term unemployment were relatively conservative. They expected global unemployment to reach only 16% in 2030, and just 24% in 2050. Pew Research Center The Pew Research Center published a report entitled “AI, robotics, and the future of jobs”[li] in November 2014.


pages: 300 words: 76,638

The War on Normal People: The Truth About America's Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income Is Our Future by Andrew Yang

3D printing, Airbnb, assortative mating, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Ben Horowitz, Bernie Sanders, call centre, corporate governance, cryptocurrency, David Brooks, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, falling living standards, financial deregulation, full employment, future of work, global reserve currency, income inequality, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Khan Academy, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Narrative Science, new economy, passive income, performance metric, post-work, quantitative easing, reserve currency, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, single-payer health, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, supercomputer in your pocket, technoutopianism, telemarketer, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, unemployed young men, universal basic income, urban renewal, white flight, winner-take-all economy, Y Combinator

One declining Memphis-area mall reported 890 crime incidents…: Hayley Peterson, “Dying Shopping Malls Are Wreaking Havoc on Suburban America,” Business Insider, March 5, 2017. … the plight of towns in upstate New York… offering some unrealistic solutions: Louis Hyman, “The Myth of Main Street,” New York Times, April 8, 2017. On average, sellers’ income from Etsy contributes only 13 percent to their household income…: “Crafting the Future of Work: The Big Impact of Microbusinesses.” 2017 Seller census report. Etsy.com, 2017. McDonald’s just announced an “Experience of the Future” initiative: Tae Kim, “McDonald’s Hits All-Time High as Wall Street Cheers Replacement of Cashiers with Kiosks,” CNBC, June 20, 2017. The former CEO of McDonald’s suggested…: Tim Worstall, “McDonald’s Ex-CEO Is Right When He Says A $15 Minimum Wage Would Lead to Automation,” Forbes, May 26, 2016


pages: 271 words: 77,448

Humans Are Underrated: What High Achievers Know That Brilliant Machines Never Will by Geoff Colvin

Ada Lovelace, autonomous vehicles, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Black Swan, call centre, capital asset pricing model, commoditize, computer age, corporate governance, creative destruction, deskilling, en.wikipedia.org, Freestyle chess, future of work, Google Glasses, Grace Hopper, industrial cluster, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, job automation, knowledge worker, low skilled workers, Marc Andreessen, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Narrative Science, new economy, rising living standards, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, Silicon Valley, Skype, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs

Bruneau and Rebecca Saxe, “The Power of Being Heard: The Benefits of ‘Perspective-Giving’ in the Context of Intergroup Conflict,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology (2012), doi: 10.1016/j.jesp.2012.02.017. Ask employers which skills they’ll need most . . . Oxford Economics, Global Talent 2021: How the New Geography of Talent Will Transform Human Resource Strategies, 2012, p. 6. The biggest increases by far . . . http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/03/20/149015363/what-america-does-for-work. The McKinsey Global Institute found . . . McKinsey Global Institute, Help Wanted: The Future of Work in Advanced Economies, 2012, p. 2. Harvard professor William H. Bossert, a legendary figure . . . I was a student in Bossert’s class, Natural Sciences 110, and describe it from still-vivid memory. The phenomenon has been explained most persuasively . . . Goldin and Katz, op. cit.(chap. 2, n. 17), p. 2. “College is no longer the automatic ticket to success . . .” Ibid., pp. 352–353.


pages: 286 words: 79,305

99%: Mass Impoverishment and How We Can End It by Mark Thomas

"Robert Solow", 2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, additive manufacturing, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, autonomous vehicles, bank run, banks create money, bitcoin, business cycle, call centre, central bank independence, complexity theory, conceptual framework, creative destruction, credit crunch, declining real wages, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, fiat currency, Filter Bubble, full employment, future of work, Gini coefficient, gravity well, income inequality, inflation targeting, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job automation, Kickstarter, labour market flexibility, laissez-faire capitalism, light touch regulation, Mark Zuckerberg, market clearing, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Nelson Mandela, North Sea oil, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, Own Your Own Home, Peter Thiel, Piper Alpha, plutocrats, Plutocrats, profit maximization, quantitative easing, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Steve Jobs, The Great Moderation, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, wealth creators, working-age population

I am particularly grateful to Facundo Alvaredo, Anthony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez for permission to cite their ground-breaking work on the World Top Incomes Database (now replaced by the World Inequality Database); Nick Balstone for his geographically accurate map of the London tube system; Jeanne Brooks-Gunn and Greg Duncan for their painstaking study into the practical impact of poverty on children; the Centre for Research in Social Policy for its calculations on the minimum income required for a normal life; Christopher Chantril for his data on UK public spending; Credit Suisse for their international survey of wealth; Forbes Magazine for their list of the world’s richest; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne for their pioneering work on the future of work in the face of automation; Amy T. Glasmeier and her team for their minimum income calculator; Ipsos MORI for data on attitudes to climate change around the world; Payscale.com for data on pay by skill set; Thomas Piketty for data showing that returns on capital increase with the size of the initial endowment; Robert C. Allen for demonstrating the stagnation of wages during the Industrial Revolution; Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman for their work on wealth inequality in the US over time; The Resolution Foundation for its analysis of the impact of the 2016 budget on rich and poor households; Edward N.


pages: 291 words: 81,703

Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation by Tyler Cowen

Amazon Mechanical Turk, Black Swan, brain emulation, Brownian motion, business cycle, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, complexity theory, computer age, computer vision, computerized trading, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, dark matter, David Brooks, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deliberate practice, Drosophila, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, experimental economics, Flynn Effect, Freestyle chess, full employment, future of work, game design, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, Isaac Newton, Johannes Kepler, John Markoff, Khan Academy, labor-force participation, Loebner Prize, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Myron Scholes, Narrative Science, Netflix Prize, Nicholas Carr, P = NP, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, reshoring, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, statistical model, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Turing test, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, upwardly mobile, Yogi Berra

The reality of the progress on the ground is based on an integration of capabilities rather than on any one thing that might be described as “artificial intelligence.” What is happening is an increase in the ability of machines to substitute for intelligent human labor, whether we wish to call those machines “AI,” “software,” “smart phones,” “superior hardware and storage,” “better integrated systems,” or any combination of the above. This is the wave that will lift you or that will dump you. The fascination with technology and the future of work has inspired some important writings, including Martin Ford’s classic The Lights in the Tunnel, the more recent and excellent eBook Race Against the Machine by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, and Ray Kurzweil’s futuristic work on how humans will meld with technology. Debates about mechanization periodically resurface, most prominently in the 1930s and in the 1960s but now once again in our new millennium.


pages: 313 words: 84,312

We-Think: Mass Innovation, Not Mass Production by Charles Leadbeater

1960s counterculture, Andrew Keen, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, c2.com, call centre, citizen journalism, clean water, cloud computing, complexity theory, congestion charging, death of newspapers, Debian, digital Maoism, disruptive innovation, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, frictionless, frictionless market, future of work, game design, Google Earth, Google X / Alphabet X, Hacker Ethic, Hernando de Soto, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jean Tirole, jimmy wales, Johannes Kepler, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Joi Ito, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, lateral thinking, lone genius, M-Pesa, Mark Shuttleworth, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, microcredit, Mitch Kapor, new economy, Nicholas Carr, online collectivism, planetary scale, post scarcity, Richard Stallman, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, slashdot, social web, software patent, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, supply-chain management, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Whole Earth Catalog, Zipcar

Weaving Complexity & Business: Engaging the Soul at Work (New York/London: Texere, 2001) Leydesdorff, Loet, and Peter Van Den Besselaar (Eds), Evolutionary Economics and Chaos Theory: New Directions in Technology Studies (New York: St Martin’s Press, 1994) Loudon, Alexander, Webs of Innovation: The Networked Economy Demands New Ways to Innovate (Harlow: FT.com, 2001) Luthje, Christian, Cornelius Herstatt and Eric von Hippel, ‘The Dominant Role of “Local” Information in User Innovation: The Case of Mountain Biking’, MIT Sloan School of Management Working Paper No. 4377–02, July 2002. Available from http://userinnovation.mit.edu/ papers/6.pdf Malone, Thomas W., The Future of Work (Boston, MA: HBS Press, 2004) Markoff, John, What the Dormouse Said: How the Sixties Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry (Penguin, 2006) McGonigal, Jane, ‘Why I Love Bees: A Case Study in Collective Intelligence Gaming’, February 2007. Available from http://www.avantgame.com/McGonigal_WhyILoveBees_Feb2007.pdf McKelvey, Maureen, Evolutionary Innovations (Oxford University Press, 2000) Mercer Management Consulting, Audiences with Attitude (Marsh & McLennan Companies) Micklethwait, John, and Adrian Wooldridge, The Company (Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2003) Miller, Paul, and Paul Skidmore, The Future of Organizations (Demos, 2004) Moody, Glyn, Rebel Code: Linux and the Open Source Revolution (Penguin, 2002) Moore, Mark H., Creating Public Value (Cambridge, MA/London: Harvard University Press, 1995) Morgan, Gareth, Images of Organization (Sage, 1997) Morris, Dick, Vote.com (Renaissance Books, 1999) Myerson, Jeremy, IDEO: Masters of Innovation (Lawrence King, 2001) Nalebuff, Barry J., and Adam M.


pages: 361 words: 81,068

The Internet Is Not the Answer by Andrew Keen

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Airbnb, AltaVista, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, Bay Area Rapid Transit, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Black Swan, Bob Geldof, Burning Man, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, collective bargaining, Colonization of Mars, computer age, connected car, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, Donald Davies, Downton Abbey, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Gehry, Frederick Winslow Taylor, frictionless, full employment, future of work, gig economy, global village, Google bus, Google Glasses, Hacker Ethic, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, index card, informal economy, information trail, Innovator's Dilemma, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, Lean Startup, libertarian paternalism, lifelogging, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, Metcalfe’s law, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nonsequential writing, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, Occupy movement, packet switching, PageRank, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Paul Graham, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer rental, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Potemkin village, precariat, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, smart cities, Snapchat, social web, South of Market, San Francisco, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, TaskRabbit, Ted Nelson, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, the medium is the message, the new new thing, Thomas L Friedman, Travis Kalanick, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber for X, uber lyft, urban planning, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, working poor, Y Combinator

Harris, “The Airbnb Economy in New York: Lucrative but Often Unlawful,” New York Times, November 4, 2013. 16 Alexia Tsotsis, “TaskRabbit Gets $13M from Founders Fund and Others to ‘Revolutionize the World’s Labor Force,’” TechCrunch, July 23, 2012. 17 Brad Stone, “My Life as a TaskRabbit,” Bloomberg Businessweek, September 13, 2012. 18 Sarah Jaffe, “Silicon Valley’s Gig Economy Is Not the Future of Work—It’s Driving Down Wages,” Guardian, July 23, 2014. 19 Guy Standing, The Precariat: The New Dangerous Class (Bloomsbury Academic, 2001). 20 Natasha Singer, “In the Sharing Economy, Workers Find Both Freedom and Uncertainty,” New York Times, August 16, 2014. 21 George Packer, “Change the World,” New Yorker, May 27, 2013, newyorker.com/reporting/2013/05/27/130527fa_fact_packer. For my TechCrunchTV interview with Packer about his New Yorker piece, see “Keen On . . .


pages: 791 words: 85,159

Social Life of Information by John Seely Brown, Paul Duguid

business process, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, cross-subsidies, disintermediation, double entry bookkeeping, Frank Gehry, frictionless, frictionless market, future of work, George Gilder, George Santayana, global village, Howard Rheingold, informal economy, information retrieval, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Markoff, Just-in-time delivery, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, lateral thinking, loose coupling, Marshall McLuhan, medical malpractice, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, Productivity paradox, Robert Metcalfe, rolodex, Ronald Coase, shareholder value, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Superbowl ad, Ted Nelson, telepresence, the medium is the message, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Y2K

Change: The Magazine for Higher Learning 31 (1): 12 19. Yates, Jo Anne. 1989. Control through Communication: The Rise of System in American Management. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins Press. Ziman, John M. 1967. Public Knowledge: An Essay Concerning the Social Dimension of Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Zuboff, Shoshona. 1988. In the Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power. New York: Basic Books. Page 307 Index A A.B. Dick, 159 Aetna, 175 Age of the Smart Machine, 30 Alexa.com, 188 Amazon.com, 148 acquisitions activities of, 25 bot use on, 37, 44, 45, 47 48 American Airlines, 45 American Notes, 195 Anderson, Benedict, 194, 197 AOL, acquisitions activities of, 25, 26 Apple Computer, 70, 87 innovativeness of, 159 160 relations with PARC, 151, 157, 163, 166 structure of, 154 AT&T, 178 downsizing by, 122 reengineering of, 92 relations with Microsoft, 25, 28 Attewell, Paul, 29 Autonomous agents, 36 37 and delegation, 53 54 negotiation and, 48 52 and representation, 54 56 strengths and limitations of, 41 56 unethical use of, 56 59 See also Bots B Babbage, Charles, 86 Barlow, John Perry, 66, 198 Barnard, Chester, 114 Barnes & Noble, 148 Bateson, Gregory, 138 Being Digital, 15 Bell, Alexander Graham, 87 88 Bell, Gordon, 11 Berkeley, University of California at, 228 Bots (autonomous agents), 36 37 and delegation, 53 54 future of, 39 41, 61 62 negotiation and, 48 52 as representative, 54 56 strengths and limitations of, 41 56 unethical use of, 56 59 Page 308 Boyle, Robert, 191 British Telecom, and home office, 98 99 Bruner, Jerome, 128, 135, 138, 153 Burg, Urs von, 166 Bush, Vannevar, 179 180 Business processes formal versus informal, 113 115 improvisation in, 109 111 reengineering of, 91 93, 97 99 C Cameron, Stephen, 223 Cancelbots, 58 Canon, 157 Carlson, Chester, 159, 161 CDNow, bot use on, 37, 44 Champy, James, 92, 107, 111, 144 Chandler, Alfred, 161 Chaparral Steel, 123 Chatterbots, 36 Chaum, David, 60 Chiat, Jay, 71 Chiat/Day, 70 73, 75, 82 Chrysler Financial, technology costs at, 82 Claims processing, 96 Clustering, 161 164 and distance, 167 170 and ecologies of knowledge, 165 167 economic effects of, 164 165 Coase, Ronald, 23 24 Code of code, 249 Cole, Robert, 123 Common Sense, 195 Communities formed around Internet, 189 190 of practice, 141, 142 143, 162 scientific, 191 192 support of knowledge management, 125 127 textual, 190 Competition, changes in, 208 209 Conduit metaphors, 184 Constraints, complexities of, 244 245 Context, 202 Control Data Systems, 212 Copyright law, 248 software issues and, 249 250 Covidea (AT&T), 178 Credentialing, 214 215 bogus, 216 future of, 215 216, 234 235 meaning of, 217 221 Customization, 26 D Daniel, Sir John, 25, 223 Databases, versus documents, 186 Davenport, Tom, 122, 198 David, Paul, 83 de Long, Brad, 46, 52 Decentralization, 29 30 Dee, John, 211 Defoe, Daniel, 139 Degrees.


pages: 307 words: 82,680

A Pelican Introduction: Basic Income by Guy Standing

bank run, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Black Swan, Boris Johnson, British Empire, centre right, collective bargaining, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, declining real wages, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, intangible asset, job automation, job satisfaction, Joi Ito, labour market flexibility, land value tax, libertarian paternalism, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, mass incarceration, moral hazard, Nelson Mandela, offshore financial centre, open economy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Paul Samuelson, plutocrats, Plutocrats, precariat, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, rent control, rent-seeking, Sam Altman, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, The Future of Employment, universal basic income, Wolfgang Streeck, women in the workforce, working poor, Y Combinator, Zipcar

.), Basic Income Guarantee and Politics: International Experiences and Perspectives on the Viability of Income Guarantee. New York and Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 17–38. 3. Those interesting in joining can email: contact@nc4bi.org. 4. A. Stern (2016), Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream. New York: PublicAffairs. 5. N. DuPuis, B. Rainwater and E. Stahl (2016), The Future of Work in Cities. Washington, DC: National League of Cities Center for City Solutions and Applied Research. 6. M. Bittman (2015), ‘Why not Utopia?’, New York Times, Sunday Review, 20 March. 7. H. Koch and J. Quoos (2017), ‘Schwab: “Gewinner müssen mit Verlierern solidarisch sein” ’, Hamburger Abendblatt, 9 January. 8. S. Dadich (2016), ‘Barack Obama, neural nets, self-driving cars and the future of the world’, Wired, October. https://www.wired.com/2016/10/president-obama-mit-joi-ito-interview/. 9.


pages: 308 words: 84,713

The Glass Cage: Automation and Us by Nicholas Carr

Airbnb, Airbus A320, Andy Kessler, Atul Gawande, autonomous vehicles, Bernard Ziegler, business process, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Charles Lindbergh, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, computerized trading, David Brooks, deliberate practice, deskilling, digital map, Douglas Engelbart, drone strike, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, High speed trading, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jacquard loom, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, natural language processing, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, place-making, plutocrats, Plutocrats, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, software is eating the world, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, turn-by-turn navigation, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Langewiesche

., Manufacturing Output, Productivity and Employment Implications (New York: Nova Science, 2005); and Judith Banister and George Cook, “China’s Employment and Compensation Costs in Manufacturing through 2008,” Monthly Labor Review, March 2011. 32.Tyler Cowen, “What Export-Oriented America Means,” American Interest, May/June 2012. 33.Robert Skidelsky, “The Rise of the Robots,” Project Syndicate, February 19, 2013, project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-future-of-work-in-a-world-of-automation-by-robert-skidelsky. 34.Ibid. 35.Chrystia Freeland, “China, Technology and the U.S. Middle Class,” Financial Times, February 15, 2013. 36.Paul Krugman, “Is Growth Over?,” The Conscience of a Liberal (blog), New York Times, December 26, 2012, krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/26/is-growth-over/. 37.James R. Bright, Automation and Management (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University, 1958), 4–5. 38.Ibid., 5. 39.Ibid., 4, 6.


pages: 320 words: 86,372

Mythology of Work: How Capitalism Persists Despite Itself by Peter Fleming

1960s counterculture, anti-work, call centre, clockwatching, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, David Graeber, Etonian, future of work, G4S, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, illegal immigration, Kitchen Debate, late capitalism, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, market fundamentalism, means of production, neoliberal agenda, Parkinson's law, post-industrial society, post-work, profit maximization, profit motive, quantitative easing, Results Only Work Environment, shareholder value, social intelligence, The Chicago School, transaction costs, wealth creators, working poor

‘The Rise of the Renegade Professionals’. http://surface.theguardian.com/more-inspiration/ Guardian, The (2014b). ‘Closed Shop in Elitist Britain, Study Says’. Available at www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/28/closed-shop-deepy-elitist-britain Hamper, B. (1992). Rivethead: Takes from the Assembly Line. New York: Warner Books. Hanlon, G. (2007). ‘HRM Is Redundant? Professions, Immaterial Labor and the Future of Work’. In S.H. Bolton (ed.). Searching for the Human in Human Resource Management: Theory, Practice and Workplace Contexts. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan, pp.263–280. Hardt, M. and Negri, A. (2000). Empire. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Hart, A. (2014). ‘Why Everyone’s Started Clockwatching’. Stylist, 30 April. Harvey, D. (2001). Spaces of Hope: Towards a Critical Geography. Edinburgh: University of Edinburgh Press.


pages: 305 words: 79,303

The Four: How Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google Divided and Conquered the World by Scott Galloway

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Apple II, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Ben Horowitz, Bernie Sanders, big-box store, Bob Noyce, Brewster Kahle, business intelligence, California gold rush, cloud computing, commoditize, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, disintermediation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, follow your passion, future of journalism, future of work, global supply chain, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Internet Archive, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, Jony Ive, Khan Academy, longitudinal study, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, Oculus Rift, offshore financial centre, passive income, Peter Thiel, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Robert Mercer, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, software is eating the world, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, supercomputer in your pocket, Tesla Model S, Tim Cook: Apple, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, undersea cable, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, working poor, young professional

Ever notice that there are very few pictures of the inside of an Amazon warehouse? Why is that? Because the inside of an Amazon warehouse is upsetting, even disturbing. Unsafe working conditions? Nope. Abuse of employees as per the New York Times article?89 No. What’s disturbing is the absence of abuse, or more specifically, the absence of people. The reason Jeff Bezos is advocating a guaranteed income for Americans is he has seen the future of work and, at least in his vision, it doesn’t involve jobs for human beings. At least not enough of them to sustain the current workforce. Increasingly, robots will perform many of the functions of human employees, almost as well (and sometimes a lot better), without annoying requests to leave early to pick up their kid from karate. Amazon doesn’t talk publicly about robotics, one of its core competencies, as it realizes it would soon be fodder for late-night hosts and blustery political candidates.


pages: 280 words: 82,355

Extreme Teams: Why Pixar, Netflix, AirBnB, and Other Cutting-Edge Companies Succeed Where Most Fail by Robert Bruce Shaw, James Foster, Brilliance Audio

Airbnb, augmented reality, call centre, cloud computing, deliberate practice, Elon Musk, future of work, inventory management, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, Jony Ive, loose coupling, meta analysis, meta-analysis, nuclear winter, Paul Graham, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, performance metric, Peter Thiel, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, Tony Hsieh

When Millennials don’t bite, the executives presume that means the younger workforce is entitled and unmotivated. But as Bill McLawhon, head of leadership development at Facebook, said to me: As a 56-year-old guy, I went through a period where I looked at these young kids and thought, “Wait until you get your butt kicked out in the real world.” But I quickly realized this is the real world. And they’re making it their own. This is the future of work. It doesn’t look much like the world of work where I started. But I’m completely awed by the high-performing individuals I get to coach every day, most of whom are young enough to be my kids.9 Hiring a diversity of age groups is a start. But if you don’t utilize the diverse perspectives of different age groups and instead try to mold them into all of your values, not only will you lose them but you will also lose their insights on what connects with consumers who share values with them.


pages: 291 words: 90,771

Upscale: What It Takes to Scale a Startup. By the People Who've Done It. by James Silver

Airbnb, augmented reality, Ben Horowitz, blockchain, business process, call centre, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, DevOps, family office, future of work, Google Hangouts, high net worth, hiring and firing, Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, minimum viable product, Network effects, pattern recognition, ride hailing / ride sharing, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, software as a service, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, women in the workforce, Y Combinator

Think about the topics you can really own as a company Back in 2007, internet guru Jeff Jarvis famously advised publishers on his blog BuzzMachine: ‘Cover what you do best. Link to the rest.’ The same applies to communications strategy. Instead of voicing opinions on subjects which are unrelated to your business, ask yourself what the topics are that are most relevant for you. And double down on them. Say you’re a workplace tech company, and you want to talk about a ‘big picture’ area such as the future of work. Spend time figuring out what the major trends are that you want to be associated with in the space - and the more genuinely fresh and interesting you can make your viewpoint, the more traction you will have. As you start to own some of those talking points, you can deploy them, not just on social media but in any earned media coverage, in speeches and at events. Consistency is key here. These are the ideas that show your company in the best light and chime with your core ethos.


pages: 627 words: 89,295

The Politics Industry: How Political Innovation Can Break Partisan Gridlock and Save Our Democracy by Katherine M. Gehl, Michael E. Porter

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, barriers to entry, business cycle, capital controls, carbon footprint, collective bargaining, coronavirus, COVID-19, Covid-19, David Brooks, deindustrialization, disintermediation, Donald Trump, first-past-the-post, future of work, guest worker program, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, immigration reform, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, labor-force participation, Menlo Park, new economy, obamacare, pension reform, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Upton Sinclair, zero-sum game

Digital transformations have shaken up virtually every industry, rendering old ways of competing obsolete. Just as these changes create possibilities for new companies, they also destabilize communities and companies alike. Industrialization has given way to deindustrialization. Rather than the displacement of farmers and the creation of large-scale national companies by mechanization, automation creates concerns about where jobs will come from and the future of work. As new technology and skills grow in importance, economic gains have disproportionately flowed to the top, again fueling rightful fears of runaway inequality. Many citizens today are left to wonder whether there is a place for them in the economy of tomorrow. Instead of the nationalization of competition that took place during the Gilded Age, we now have globalization. The years following World War II inaugurated a new era of global commerce and investment.


pages: 843 words: 223,858

The Rise of the Network Society by Manuel Castells

"Robert Solow", Apple II, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Noyce, borderless world, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, complexity theory, computer age, computerized trading, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, declining real wages, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, deskilling, disintermediation, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, edge city, experimental subject, financial deregulation, financial independence, floating exchange rates, future of work, global village, Gunnar Myrdal, Hacker Ethic, hiring and firing, Howard Rheingold, illegal immigration, income inequality, Induced demand, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, intermodal, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, job-hopping, John Markoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, Leonard Kleinrock, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, moral panic, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, packet switching, Pearl River Delta, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, popular capitalism, popular electronics, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social software, South China Sea, South of Market, San Francisco, special economic zone, spinning jenny, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Ted Nelson, the built environment, the medium is the message, the new new thing, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, urban renewal, urban sprawl, zero-sum game

. —— (2000) “The temporal gaze: the challenge for social theory in the context of GM food”, British Journal of Sociology, 51(1): 125–42. Adler, Gerald (1999) “Relationships between Israel and Silicon Valley in the software industry”, unpublished masters thesis, Berkeley, CA: University of California. Adler, Glenn and Suarez, Doris (1993) Union Voices: Labor’s Responses to Crisis, Albany, NY: State University of New York Press. Adler, Paul S. (1992) Technology and the Future of Work, New York: Oxford University Press. Agence de l’Informatique (1986) L’Etat d’informatisation de la France, Paris: Economica. Aglietta, Michel (1976) Régulation et crise du capitalisme: l’expérience des Etats-Unis, Paris: Calmann-Levy. Alarcon, Rafael (1998) “Mexican engineers in Silicon Valley”, unpublished PhD dissertation, Berkeley, CA: University of California. Allen, G.C. (1981a) The Japanese Economy, New York: St Martin’s Press. —— (1981b) A Short Economic History of Modern Japan, London: Macmillan.

. —— (1995) Japan: Who Governs? The Rise of the Developmental State, New York: W.W. Norton. ——, Tyson, L. and Zysman, J. (eds) (1989) Politics and Productivity: How Japan’s Development Strategy Works, New York: Harper Business. Johnston, William B. (1991) “Global labor force 2000: the new world labor market”, Harvard Business Review, March–April. Jones, Barry (1982) Sleepers, Wake! Technology and the Future of Work, Melbourne: Oxford University Press (references are to the 1990 rev. edn). Jones, David (1993) “Banks move to cut currency dealing costs”, Financial Technology International Bulletin, 10(6): 1–3. Jones, Eric L. (1981) The European Miracle, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. —— (1988) Growth Recurring: Economic Change in World History, Oxford: Clarendon Press. Jones, L.P. and Sakong, I. (1980) Government Business and Entrepreneurship in Economic Development: the Korean Case, Cambridge, MA: Council on East Asian Studies.


pages: 319 words: 89,477

The Power of Pull: How Small Moves, Smartly Made, Can Set Big Things in Motion by John Hagel Iii, John Seely Brown

Albert Einstein, Andrew Keen, barriers to entry, Black Swan, business process, call centre, Clayton Christensen, cleantech, cloud computing, commoditize, corporate governance, creative destruction, disruptive innovation, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, future of work, game design, George Gilder, intangible asset, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, Joi Ito, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, loose coupling, Louis Pasteur, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, Maui Hawaii, medical residency, Network effects, old-boy network, packet switching, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, pre–internet, profit motive, recommendation engine, Ronald Coase, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart transportation, software as a service, supply-chain management, The Nature of the Firm, the new new thing, too big to fail, trade liberalization, transaction costs

Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004. Jacobs, Jane. The Economy of Cities. New York: Vintage Books, 1970. Kauffman, Stuart. Reinventing the Sacred. New York: Basic Books, 2008. Langlois, Richard, and Paul Robertson. Firms, Markets and Economic Change. New York: Routledge, 1995. Loasby, Brian. Knowledge, Institutions and Evolution in Economics. New York: Routledge, 2002. Malone, Thomas W. The Future of Work. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004. McKelvey, Bill, and Pierpaolo Andriani. “Extremes and Scale-Free Dynamics in Organization Science.” Strategic Organization 3, no. 2 (2005): 219-228. Page, Scott E. The Difference. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2007. Perez, Carlota. Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. Northampton, Mass.: Edward Elgar, 2002. Polanyi, Michael.


pages: 353 words: 91,520