nudge theory

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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making for an Unknowable Future by Mervyn King, John Kay

Airbus A320, Alan Greenspan, Albert Einstein, Albert Michelson, algorithmic trading, anti-fragile, Antoine Gombaud: Chevalier de Méré, Arthur Eddington, autonomous vehicles, availability heuristic, banking crisis, Barry Marshall: ulcers, battle of ideas, Bear Stearns, behavioural economics, Benoit Mandelbrot, bitcoin, Black Swan, Boeing 737 MAX, Bonfire of the Vanities, Brexit referendum, Brownian motion, business cycle, business process, capital asset pricing model, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, DeepMind, demographic transition, discounted cash flows, disruptive innovation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Dutch auction, easy for humans, difficult for computers, eat what you kill, Eddington experiment, Edmond Halley, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, Edward Thorp, Elon Musk, Ethereum, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, experimental subject, fear of failure, feminist movement, financial deregulation, George Akerlof, germ theory of disease, Goodhart's law, Hans Rosling, Helicobacter pylori, high-speed rail, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, income per capita, incomplete markets, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, Jim Simons, Johannes Kepler, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Snow's cholera map, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, Kōnosuke Matsushita, Linda problem, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, mandelbrot fractal, market bubble, market fundamentalism, military-industrial complex, Money creation, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monty Hall problem, Nash equilibrium, Nate Silver, new economy, Nick Leeson, Northern Rock, nudge theory, oil shock, PalmPilot, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, Phillips curve, Pierre-Simon Laplace, popular electronics, power law, price mechanism, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, railway mania, RAND corporation, reality distortion field, rent-seeking, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Shiller, Robert Solow, Ronald Coase, sealed-bid auction, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Socratic dialogue, South Sea Bubble, spectrum auction, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Suez crisis 1956, Tacoma Narrows Bridge, Thales and the olive presses, Thales of Miletus, The Chicago School, the map is not the territory, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Davenport, Thomas Malthus, Toyota Production System, transaction costs, ultimatum game, urban planning, value at risk, world market for maybe five computers, World Values Survey, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game

INDEX 10 (film, 1979), 97 737 Max aircraft, 228 9/11 terror attacks, 7 , 74–6 , 202 , 230 Abbottabad raid (2011), 9–10 , 20 , 26 , 44 , 71 , 102 , 118–19 , 120 , 174–5 ; reference narrative of, 122–3 , 277 , 298 ; role of luck in, 262–3 ; and unhelpful probabilities, 8–19 , 326 abductive reasoning, 138 , 147 , 211 , 388 , 398 ABN AMRO, 257 Abraham (biblical character), 206 Abrahams, Harold, 273 Abramovich, Roman, 265 accountancy, 409 aeronautics, 227–8 , 352–6 , 383 Agdestein, Simen, 273 AIDS, 57 , 230 , 375–6 Airbus A380, 40 , 274–6 , 408 Akerlof, George, 250–1 , 252 , 253 , 254 , 382 Alchian, Armen, 158 alien invasion narratives, 295–6 Allais, Maurice, 134–5 , 136 , 137 , 437 , 440–3 Allen, Bill, 227–8 Allen, Paul, 28 , 29 Altair desktop, 28 Amazon, 289 , 309 Anderson, Roy, 375 ant colonies, 173 anthropology, 160 , 189–91 , 193–4 , 215–16 antibiotics, 40 , 45 , 284 , 429 Antz (film, 1998), 274 apocalyptic narratives, 331–2 , 335 , 358–62 Appiah, Anthony, 117–18 Apple, 29–30 , 31 , 169 , 309 Applegarth, Adam, 311 arbitrage, 308 Archilochus (Greek poet), 222 Aristotle, 137 , 147 , 303 Arrow, Kenneth, 254 , 343–5 , 440 artificial intelligence (AI), xvi , 39 , 135 , 150 , 173–4 , 175–6 , 185–6 , 387 ; the ‘singularity’, 176–7 Ashtabula rail bridge disaster (1876), 33 Asimov, Isaac, 303 asteroid strikes, 32 , 71–2 , 238 , 402 astrology, 394 astronomical laws, 18–19 , 35 , 70 , 373–4 , 388 , 389 , 391–2 , 394 AT&T, 28 auction theory, 255–7 Austen, Jane, 217 , 224–5 , 383 autism, 394 , 411 aviation, commercial, 23–4 , 40 , 227–8 , 274–6 , 315 , 383 , 414 axiomatic rationality: Allais disputes theory, 134–5 , 136 , 137 ; Arrow– Debreu world, 343–5 ; assumption of transitivity, 437 ; and Becker, 114 , 381–2 ; and behavioural economics, 116 , 135–6 , 141–9 , 154–5 , 167–8 , 386–7 , 401 ; capital asset pricing model (CAPM), 307–8 , 309 , 320 , 332 ; completeness axiom, 437–8 ; consistency of choice axiom, 108–9 , 110–11 ; continuity axiom, 438–40 ; definition of rationality, 133–4 , 137 , 436 ; definition of risk, 305 , 307 , 334 , 420–1 ; efficient market hypothesis, 252 , 254 , 308–9 , 318 , 320 , 332 , 336–7 ; efficient portfolio model, 307–8 , 309 , 318 , 320 , 332–4 , 366 ; and evolutionary rationality, 16 , 152–3 , 154–5 , 157 , 158 , 166–7 , 171–2 , 386–7 , 407 ; and ‘expectations’ concept, 97–8 , 102–3 , 121–2 , 341–2 ; extended to decision-making under uncertainty, xv , 40–2 , 110–14 , 133–7 , 257–9 , 420–1 ; and Friedman, 73–4 , 111–12 , 113–14 , 125 , 257–9 , 307 , 399–400 , 420 , 437 ; hegemony of over radical uncertainty, 40–2 , 110–14 ; implausibility of assumptions, xiv–xv , 16 , 41–4 , 47 , 74–84 , 85–105 , 107–9 , 111 , 116–22 , 344–9 , 435–44 ; independence axiom, 440–4 ; as limited to small worlds, 170 , 309–10 , 320–1 , 342–9 , 382 , 400 , 421 ; and Lucas, 36 , 92 , 93 , 338–9 , 341 , 345 , 346 ; and Markowitz, 307 , 308 , 309–10 , 318 , 322 , 333 ; maximising behaviour, 310 ; ‘pignistic probability’, 78–84 , 438 ; and Popperian falsificationism, 259–60 ; Prescott’s comparison with engineering, 352–6 ; ‘rational expectations theory, 342–5 , 346–50 ; and Samuelson, xv , 42 , 110–11 , 436 ; and Savage, 111–14 , 125 , 257–9 , 309 , 345 , 400 , 435 , 437 , 442–3 ; shocks and shifts discourse, 42 , 346 , 347 , 348 , 406–7 ; Simon’s work on, 134 , 136 , 149–53 ; triumph of probabilistic reasoning, 15–16 , 20 , 72–84 , 110–14 ; Value at risk models (VaR), 366–8 , 405 , 424 ; von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms, 111 , 133 , 435–44 ; see also maximising behaviour Ballmer, Steve, 30 , 227 Bank of England, xiii , 45 , 103–5 , 286 , 311 Barclays Bank, 257 Barings Bank, 411 Basel regulations, 310 , 311 Bay of Pigs fiasco (1961), 278–9 Bayes, Reverend Thomas, 60–3 , 66–7 , 70 , 71 , 358 , 431 Beane, Billy, 273 Bear Stearns, 158–9 Becker, Gary, 114 , 381–2 Beckham, David, 267–8 , 269 , 270 , 272–3 , 414 behavioural economics, 116 , 145–8 , 154 , 386–7 ; and Allais paradox, 442 ; ‘availability heuristic’, 144–5 ; biases in human behaviour, 16 , 136 , 141–8 , 154 , 162 , 165 , 167–8 , 170–1 , 175–6 , 184 , 401 ; and evolutionary science, 154–5 , 165 ; Kahneman’s dual systems, 170–1 , 172 , 271 ; Kahneman–Tversky experiments, 141–7 , 152 , 215 ; ‘noise’ (randomness), 175–6 ; nudge theory, 148–9 Bentham, Jeremy, 110 Berkshire Hathaway, 153 , 319 , 324 , 325–6 Berlin, Isaiah, 222 Bernoulli, Daniel, 114–16 , 199 Bernoulli, Nicolaus, 199 , 442 Bertrand, Joseph, 70 Bezos, Jeff, 289 big data, 208 , 327 , 388–90 billiard players, 257–8 bin Laden, Osama, 7 , 8–10 , 21 , 44 , 71 , 118–19 , 120 , 122–3 , 262–3 , 326 Bismarck, Otto von, 161 Bitcoin, 96 , 316 Black Death, 32 , 39–40 BlackBerry, 30 , 31 blackjack, 38 Blackstone, Sir William, 213 BNP Paribas, 5 , 6 BOAC, 23–4 Boas, Franz, 193 Boeing, 24 , 227–8 Boer War, 168 Bolt, Usain, 273 bonobos, 161–2 , 178 Borges, Jorge Luis, 391 Borodino, battle of (1812), 3–4 , 433 Bortkiewicz, Ladislaus, 235–6 Bower, Tom, 169–70 Bowral cricket team, New South Wales, 264 Box, George, 393 Boycott, Geoffrey, 264–5 Bradman, Don, 237 , 264 Brahe, Tycho, 388–9 Brånemark, Per-Ingvar, 387 , 388 Branson, Richard, 169–70 Brearley, Michael, 140–1 , 264–5 Breslau (now Wrocław), 56 Brexit referendum (June 2016), 241–2 ; lies told during, 404 bridge collapses, 33 , 341 Brownian motion, 37 Brunelleschi, Filippo, 143 , 147 Buffett, Warren, 83 , 152 , 179 , 319–20 , 324 , 335 , 336–7 Burns, Robert, 253 Bush, George W., 295 , 407 , 412 business cycles, 347 business history (academic discipline), 286 business schools, 318 business strategy: approach in 1970s, 183 ; approach in 1980s, 181–2 ; aspirations confused with, 181–2 , 183–4 ; business plans, 223–4 , 228 ; collections of capabilities, 274–7 ; and the computer industry, 27–31 ; corporate takeovers, 256–7 ; Lampert at Sears, 287–9 , 292 ; Henry Mintzberg on, 296 , 410 ; motivational proselytisation, 182–3 , 184 ; quantification mistaken for understanding, 180–1 , 183 ; and reference narratives, 286–90 , 296–7 ; risk maps, 297 ; Rumelt’s MBA classes, 10 , 178–80 ; Shell’s scenario planning, 223 , 295 ; Sloan at General Motors, 286–7 ; strategy weekends, 180–3 , 194 , 296 , 407 ; three common errors, 183–4 ; vision or mission statements, 181–2 , 184 Buxton, Jedediah, 225 Calas, Jean, 199 California, 48–9 Cambridge Growth Project, 340 Canadian fishing industry, 368–9 , 370 , 423 , 424 cancer, screening for, 66–7 Candler, Graham, 352 , 353–6 , 399 Cardiff City Football Club, 265 Carlsen, Magnus, 175 , 273 Carnegie, Andrew, 427 Carnegie Mellon University, 135 Carré, Dr Matt, 267–8 Carroll, Lewis, Through the Looking-Glass , 93–4 , 218 , 344 , 346 ; ‘Jabberwocky’, 91–2 , 94 , 217 Carron works (near Falkirk), 253 Carter, Jimmy, 8 , 119 , 120 , 123 , 262–3 cartography, 391 Casio, 27 , 31 Castro, Fidel, 278–9 cave paintings, 216 central banks, 5 , 7 , 95 , 96 , 103–5 , 285–6 , 348–9 , 350 , 351 , 356–7 Central Pacific Railroad, 48 Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, 39 Chabris, Christopher, 140 Challenger disaster (1986), 373 , 374 Chamberlain, Neville, 24–5 Chandler, Alfred, Strategy and Structure , 286 Chariots of Fire (film, 1981), 273 Charles II, King, 383 Chelsea Football Club, 265 chess, 173 , 174 , 175 , 266 , 273 , 346 Chicago economists, 36 , 72–4 , 86 , 92 , 111–14 , 133–7 , 158 , 257–8 , 307 , 342–3 , 381–2 Chicago Mercantile Exchange, 423 chimpanzees, 161–2 , 178 , 274 China, 4–5 , 419–20 , 430 cholera, 283 Churchill, Winston: character of, 25–6 , 168 , 169 , 170 ; fondness for gambling, 81 , 168 ; as hedgehog not fox, 222 ; on Montgomery, 293 ; restores gold standard (1925), 25–6 , 269 ; The Second World War , 187 ; Second World War leadership, 24–5 , 26 , 119 , 167 , 168–9 , 170 , 184 , 187 , 266 , 269 Citibank, 255 Civil War, American, 188 , 266 , 290 Clapham, John, 253 Clark, Sally, 197–8 , 200 , 202 , 204 , 206 Clausewitz, Carl von, On War , 433 climate systems, 101–2 Club of Rome, 361 , 362 Coase, Ronald, 286 , 342 Cochran, Johnnie, 198 , 217 Cochrane, John, 93 coffee houses, 55–6 cognitive illusions, 141–2 Cohen, Jonathan, 206–7 Colbert, Jean-Baptiste, 411 Cold War, 293–4 , 306–7 Collier, Paul, 276–7 Columbia disaster (2003), 373 Columbia University, 117 , 118 , 120 Columbus, Christopher, 4 , 21 Colyvan, Mark, 225 Comet aircraft, 23–4 , 228 communication: communicative rationality, 172 , 267–77 , 279–82 , 412 , 414–16 ; and decision-making, 17 , 231 , 272–7 , 279–82 , 398–9 , 408 , 412 , 413–17 , 432 ; eusociality, 172–3 , 274 ; and good doctors, 185 , 398–9 ; human capacity for, 159 , 161 , 162 , 172–3 , 216 , 272–7 , 408 ; and ill-defined concepts, 98–9 ; and intelligibility, 98 ; language, 98 , 99–100 , 159 , 162 , 173 , 226 ; linguistic ambiguity, 98–100 ; and reasoning, 265–8 , 269–77 ; and the smartphone, 30 ; the ‘wisdom of crowds’, 47 , 413–14 Community Reinvestment Act (USA, 1977), 207 comparative advantage model, 249–50 , 251–2 , 253 computer technologies, 27–31 , 173–4 , 175–7 , 185–6 , 227 , 411 ; big data, 208 , 327 , 388–90 ; CAPTCHA text, 387 ; dotcom boom, 228 ; and economic models, 339–40 ; machine learning, 208 Condit, Phil, 228 Condorcet, Nicolas de, 199–200 consumer price index, 330 , 331 conviction narrative theory, 227–30 Corinthians (New Testament), 402 corporate takeovers, 256–7 corporations, large, 27–31 , 122 , 123 , 286–90 , 408–10 , 412 , 415 Cosmides, Leda, 165 Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction, 32 , 39 , 71–2 Crick, Francis, 156 cricket, 140–1 , 237 , 263–5 crime novels, classic, 218 crosswords, 218 crypto-currencies, 96 , 316 Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly, 140 , 264 Cuba, 278–80 ; Cuban Missile Crisis, 279–81 , 299 , 412 Custer, George, 293 Cutty Sark (whisky producer), 325 Daily Express , 242–3 , 244 Damasio, Antonio, 171 Dardanelles expedition (1915), 25 Darwin, Charles, 156 , 157 Davenport, Thomas, 374 Dawkins, Richard, 156 de Havilland company, 23–4 Debreu, Gerard, 254 , 343–4 decision theory, xvi ; critiques of ‘American school’, 133–7 ; definition of rationality, 133–4 ; derived from deductive reasoning, 138 ; Ellsberg’s ‘ambiguity aversion’, 135 ; expected utility , 111–14 , 115–18 , 124–5 , 127 , 128 – 30 , 135 , 400 , 435–44 ; hegemony of optimisation, 40–2 , 110–14 ; as unable to solve mysteries, 34 , 44 , 47 ; and work of Savage, 442–3 decision-making under uncertainty: and adaptation, 102 , 401 ; Allais paradox, 133–7 , 437 , 440–3 ; axiomatic approach extended to, xv , 40–2 , 110–14 , 133–7 , 257–9 , 420–1 ; ‘bounded rationality concept, 149–53 ; as collaborative process, 17 , 155 , 162 , 176 , 411–15 , 431–2 ; and communication, 17 , 231 , 272–7 , 279–82 , 398–9 , 408 , 412 , 413–17 , 432 ; communicative rationality, 172 , 267–77 , 279–82 , 412 , 414–16 ; completeness axiom, 437–8 ; continuity axiom, 438–40 ; Cuban Missile Crisis, 279–81 , 299 , 412 ; ‘decision weights’ concept, 121 ; disasters attributed to chance, 266–7 ; doctors, 184–6 , 194 , 398–9 ; and emotions, 227–9 , 411 ; ‘evidence-based policy’, 404 , 405 ; excessive attention to prior probabilities, 184–5 , 210 ; expected utility , 111–14 , 115–18 , 124–5 , 127 , 128–30 , 135 , 400 , 435–44 ; first-rate decision-makers, 285 ; framing of problems, 261 , 362 , 398–400 ; good strategies for radical uncertainty, 423–5 ; and hindsight, 263 ; independence axiom, 440–4 ; judgement as unavoidable, 176 ; Klein’s ‘primed recognition decision-making’, 399 ; Gary Klein’s work on, 151–2 , 167 ; and luck, 263–6 ; practical decision-making, 22–6 , 46–7 , 48–9 , 81–2 , 151 , 171–2 , 176–7 , 255 , 332 , 383 , 395–6 , 398–9 ; and practical knowledge, 22–6 , 195 , 255 , 352 , 382–8 , 395–6 , 405 , 414–15 , 431 ; and prior opinions, 179–80 , 184–5 , 210 ; ‘prospect theory’, 121 ; public sector processes, 183 , 355 , 415 ; puzzle– mystery distinction, 20–4 , 32–4 , 48–9 , 64–8 , 100 , 155 , 173–7 , 218 , 249 , 398 , 400–1 ; qualities needed for success, 179–80 ; reasoning as not decision-making, 268–71 ; and ‘resulting’, 265–7 ; ‘risk as feelings’ perspective, 128–9 , 310 ; robustness and resilience, 123 , 294–8 , 332 , 335 , 374 , 423–5 ; and role of economists, 397–401 ; Rumelt’s ‘diagnosis’, 184–5 , 194–5 ; ‘satisficing’ (’good enough’ outcomes), 150 , 167 , 175 , 415 , 416 ; search for a workable solution, 151–2 , 167 ; by securities traders, 268–9 ; ‘shock’ and ‘shift’ labels, 42 , 346 , 347 , 348 , 406–7 ; simple heuristics, rules of thumb, 152 ; and statistical discrimination, 207–9 , 415 ; triumph of probabilistic reasoning, 20 , 40–2 , 72–84 , 110–14 ; von Neumann– Morgenstern axioms, 111 , 133 , 435–44 ; see also business strategy deductive reasoning, 137–8 , 147 , 235 , 388 , 389 , 398 Deep Blue, 175 DeepMind, 173–4 The Deer Hunter (film, 1978), 438 democracy, representative, 292 , 319 , 414 demographic issues, 253 , 358–61 , 362–3 ; EU migration models, 369–70 , 372 Denmark, 426 , 427 , 428 , 430 dentistry, 387–8 , 394 Derek, Bo, 97 dermatologists, 88–9 Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), 27 , 31 dinosaurs, extinction of, 32 , 39 , 71–2 , 383 , 402 division of labour, 161 , 162 , 172–3 , 216 , 249 DNA, 156 , 198 , 201 , 204 ‘domino theory’, 281 Donoghue, Denis, 226 dotcom boom, 316 , 402 Doyle, Arthur Conan, 34 , 224–5 , 253 Drapers Company, 328 Drescher, Melvin, 248–9 Drucker, Peter, Concept of the Corporation (1946), 286 , 287 Duhem–Quine hypothesis, 259–60 Duke, Annie, 263 , 268 , 273 Dulles, John Foster, 293 Dutch tulip craze (1630s), 315 Dyson, Frank, 259 earthquakes, 237–8 , 239 Eco, Umberto, The Name of the Rose , 204 Econometrica , 134 econometrics, 134 , 340–1 , 346 , 356 economic models: of 1950s and 1960s, 339–40 ; Akerlof model, 250–1 , 252 , 253 , 254 ; ‘analogue economies’ of Lucas, 345 , 346 ; artificial/complex, xiv–xv , 21 , 92–3 , 94 ; ‘asymmetric information’ model, 250–1 , 254–5 ; capital asset pricing model (CAPM), 307–8 , 309 , 320 , 332 ; comparative advantage model, 249–50 , 251–2 , 253 ; cost-benefit analysis obsession, 404 ; diversification of risk, 304–5 , 307–9 , 317–18 , 334–7 ; econometric models, 340–1 , 346 , 356 ; economic rent model, 253–4 ; efficient market hypothesis, 252 , 254 , 308–9 , 318 , 320 , 332 , 336–7 ; efficient portfolio model, 307–8 , 309 , 318 , 320 , 332–4 , 366 ; failure over 2007–08 crisis, xv , 6–7 , 260 , 311–12 , 319 , 339 , 349–50 , 357 , 367–8 , 399 , 407 , 423–4 ; falsificationist argument, 259–60 ; forecasting models, 7 , 15–16 , 68 , 96 , 102–5 , 347–50 , 403–4 ; Goldman Sachs risk models, 6–7 , 9 , 68 , 202 , 246–7 ; ‘grand auction’ of Arrow and Debreu, 343–5 ; inadequacy of forecasting models, 347–50 , 353–4 , 403–4 ; invented numbers in, 312–13 , 320 , 363–4 , 365 , 371 , 373 , 404 , 405 , 423 ; Keynesian, 339–40 ; Lucas critique, 341 , 348 , 354 ; Malthus’ population growth model, 253 , 358–61 , 362–3 ; misuse/abuse of, 312–13 , 320 , 371–4 , 405 ; need for, 404–5 ; need for pluralism of, 276–7 ; pension models, 312–13 , 328–9 , 405 , 423 , 424 ; pre-crisis risk models, 6–7 , 9 , 68 , 202 , 246–7 , 260 , 311–12 , 319 , 320–1 , 339 ; purpose of, 346 ; quest for large-world model, 392 ; ‘rational expectations theory, 342–5 , 346–50 ; real business cycle theory, 348 , 352–4 ; role of incentives, 408–9 ; ‘shift’ label, 406–7 ; ‘shock’ label, 346–7 , 348 , 406–7 ; ‘training base’ (historical data series), 406 ; Value at risk models (VaR), 366–8 , 405 , 424 ; Viniar problem (problem of model failure), 6–7 , 58 , 68 , 109 , 150 , 176 , 202 , 241 , 242 , 246–7 , 331 , 366–8 ; ‘wind tunnel’ models, 309 , 339 , 392 ; winner’s curse model, 256–7 ; World Economic Outlook, 349 ; see also axiomatic rationality; maximising behaviour; optimising behaviour; small world models Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, 317–18 economics: adverse selection process, 250–1 , 327 ; aggregate output and GDP, 95 ; ambiguity of variables/concepts, 95–6 , 99–100 ; appeal of probability theory, 42–3 ; ‘bubbles’, 315–16 ; business cycles, 45–6 , 347 ; Chicago School, 36 , 72–4 , 86 , 92 , 111–14 , 133–7 , 158 , 257–8 , 307 , 342–3 , 381–2 ; data as essential, 388–90 ; division of labour, 161 , 162 , 172–3 , 216 , 249 ; and evolutionary mechanisms, 158–9 ; ‘expectations’ concept, 97–8 , 102–3 , 121–2 , 341–2 ; forecasts and future planning as necessary, 103 ; framing of problems, 261 , 362 , 398–400 ; ‘grand auction’ of Arrow and Debreu, 343–5 ; hegemony of optimisation, 40–2 , 110 – 14 ; Hicks–Samuelson axioms, 435–6 ; market fundamentalism, 220 ; market price equilibrium, 254 , 343–4 , 381–2 ; markets as necessarily incomplete, 344 , 345 , 349 ; Marshall’s definition of, 381 , 382 ; as ‘non-stationary’, 16 , 35–6 , 45–6 , 102 , 236 , 339–41 , 349 , 350 , 394–6 ; oil shock (1973), 223 ; Phillips curve, 340 ; and ‘physics envy’, 387 , 388 ; and power laws, 238–9 ; as practical knowledge, 381 , 382–3 , 385–8 , 398 , 399 , 405 ; public role of the social scientist, 397–401 ; reciprocity in a modern economy, 191–2 , 328–9 ; and reflexivity, 35–6 , 309 , 394 ; risk and volatility, 124–5 , 310 , 333 , 335–6 , 421–3 ; Romer’s ‘mathiness’, 93–4 , 95 ; shift or structural break, 236 ; Adam Smith’s ‘invisible hand’, 163 , 254 , 343 ; social context of, 17 ; sources of data, 389 , 390 ; surge in national income since 1800, 161 ; systems as non-linear, 102 ; teaching’s emphasis on quantitative methods, 389 ; validity of research findings, 245 ‘Economists Free Ride, Does Anyone Else?’

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question NASA, 18–19 , 26 , 35 , 218 , 352 , 353–6 , 373–4 , 391–2 , 394 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 233–4 , 239–40 National Lottery, 438 native tribes in American north-west, 189 , 193 Neumann, John von, 111 , 133 , 137 , 435–7 neuroeconomics, 129 , 135 neurophysiology, 306 , 416–17 neuropsychology, 171 New York, 424–5 New Zealand, 362 Newtonian mechanics, 259 , 260 , 392 Neyman, Jerzy, 71 Nixon, Richard, 4–5 , 412 , 420 Nobel Prize in Economics, 134 , 135 , 148 , 252 , 256 , 286 , 307 , 351 , 382 Nokia, 30–1 Norges Toppidrettsgymnas, 273 Northampton, 56 Northern Rock, 310–11 , 312 , 367 nudge theory, 148–9 Obama, Barack, 9–10 , 20 , 26 , 100 , 102 , 118–19 , 120 , 174–5 ; reference narrative of Abbottabad, 122–3 , 277 , 298 ; role of luck at Abbottabad, 262–3 ; on success as collaborative process, 432 ; and two-war policy, 295 ; on unhelpful probabilities, 8–9 , 326 oil industry: Hubbert’s ‘peak oil’ notion, 361 , 362 ; Middle East producers, 222–3 ; oil block auctions in USA, 256 Olsen, Ken, 27 , 31 , 100 , 227 opinion polls, 240–2 , 390 Opium Wars, 420 optimising behaviour: hegemony of theory, 40–2 , 110–14 ; as individual not social, 408 ; limits to, xiv–xv , 16 , 41–4 , 171–2 , 258 ; radical uncertainty precludes, 320–1 , 435 ; Simon’s bounded rationality, 149–53 ; in ‘small worlds’, 112–13 , 116 , 129–30 , 155 , 166 , 170 , 334 , 382 , 399–400 ; see also axiomatic rationality organisation, economics of, 408 Orwell, George, 127 , 130 , 226 , 307 Osborne, George, 404 Pacioli, Luca, 59 Paleolithic social kinship groups, 159–60 , 215–16 paleontology, 159 Panasonic Corp, 410 paradigm shift process, 285 Paris colloquium (1952), 134–5 , 137 , 437 , 440–3 Pascal, Blaise, 53 , 56 , 57 , 59–60 , 64 , 80 , 106 Pasteur, Louis, 285 Patton, George S., 293 , 294 Paulson, John, 422–3 Pearl Harbor attack (1941), 25 , 26 , 218–19 , 266 , 279 pensions, 312–13 , 328–9 , 405 , 424 ; index-linked, 330–1 ; interference with indices, 330–1 ; search for illusory certainty, 330 , 423 Pentagon Papers, 135 , 282 Perry, Captain, 420 perspective in art, 142–3 Petty, Sir William, 56 pharmaceutical companies, 243–5 , 284 Phillips, Bill, 339 , 340 Pierce, Charles Sanders, 137–9 pigeons, 274 Pitt, Brad, 273 plague, 56 , 57 , 166 Planck, Max, 285 , 386 , 387 , 388 , 411 , 429 planetary motion, 18–19 , 35 , 373–4 , 389 , 391–2 , 394 Plato, 54 Poisson, Siméon-Denis, 199 , 235 poker, 263 , 268 , 273 policing, 208 Polybius (Greek historian), 54 , 186 , 187 Popper, Karl, 36 ; falsificationism, 259–60 poverty, 389 , 390 practical knowledge, 22–6 , 195 , 255 , 352 , 382–8 , 395–6 , 398–9 , 405 , 414–15 , 431 pragmatist philosophy, 137 Prescott, Edward, 352–4 , 356 presidential election, US (2016), 241–2 Príncipe, island of, 259 Prisoner’s Dilemma, 248–9 , 252 , 393 probabilistic reasoning: as absent from pre-modern thought, 54–5 ; Bayes’ theorem, 60–7 , 70–1 , 114 , 117–20 , 127 , 179 , 196 , 203 , 204 , 210 , 420 ; Bortkiewicz model, 235–6 ; Central Limit Theorem, 234 ; compound probability , 59–60 , 197 , 198 , 200–4 ; conditional probabilities , 61 , 66–7 , 70 , 204 ; and confidence, 8–9 , 71–2 , 86 , 87–9 , 96–7 , 403 ; ‘dependent’ and ‘explanatory’ variables, 246–7 ; disguising of uncertainty by, 374 ; and economic variables, 6–7 , 12 , 15 , 34 , 45–6 , 58 , 72–4 , 83 , 95–6 ; expected value , 60 , 106–9 , 114–16 , 124–5 ; and Friedman, 74 , 400 , 420 ; and games of chance, 37–8 , 42 , 53–4 , 57–8 , 59–60 , 64–5 , 69 , 83 , 420 ; and imperfect information, 12 , 41–4 , 65–8 , 80–2 , 92–4 , 98 , 118–19 , 129 , 155 , 277 , 320–1 ; Indifference Principle, 63–6 , 107 ; infinite regress issue, 443 ; Keynes on, 105 ; and known distribution of outcomes, 14 , 16 , 37–8 , 43 , 57–65 , 69–70 , 87 ; and the law, 196 , 197 , 198–203 , 206–7 , 210–12 , 214 ; and likelihood, 86–7 , 89–91 , 96–7 , 206–7 , 403 ; the ‘Linda problem’, 90–1 , 98 ; and markets in risk, 55–7 ; models as contingent and transitory, 235–6 ; the Monty Hall problem, 62–3 , 64–6 , 98 , 100 , 113 , 139 , 203 , 204 ; mortality tables and life insurance, 56–7 , 69 , 232–3 ; non-stationary nature of social sciences, 235–6 ; Pascal and Fermat, 53 , 56 , 57 , 59–60 , 106 ; Pascal’s wager, 64 , 80 ; posterior distribution, 100 ; ‘probabilistic turn’ in human thought, 20 , 49 , 53–4 , 55–68 ; probability theory, 42–3 , 55 , 58 , 59–68 , 69–70 , 71–2 , 105 ; the problem of points, 59–60 , 61 , 64–5 , 106 , 113 ; puzzle-mystery distinction, 20–4 , 32–4 , 48–9 , 64–8 , 100 , 155 , 173–7 , 218 , 249 , 398 , 400–1 ; and reinsurers, 326 ; and risk-uncertainty distinction, 12–17 , 20 , 22 , 23 , 26 , 305–6 , 355 , 420 ; ‘rodeo problem’, 206–7 ; scope of, 37–8 ; and screening for cancer, 66–7 , 206 ; spurious application to uncertainty, 8–10 , 15–16 , 20 , 34 , 70 , 74–84 , 85–94 , 197–204 , 246–7 , 320–1 , 372 , 435–44 ; ‘St Petersburg paradox’, 114–16 , 199 ; statistical discrimination, 207–9 , 415 ; and Taleb’s ‘black swans’, 14 , 38–40 , 42 ; tension with mutualisation, 328–9 ; Tetlock and Gardner’s ideas, 294–5 ; two-envelope problem, 107–8 ; and unique events/projects, 23–6 , 38–40 , 57 , 70 , 71–2 , 96–7 , 138 , 174 , 177 , 188 , 192–5 , 338–9 ; see also axiomatic rationality; statistics; subjective probabilities productivity, 347 public sector organisations, 183 , 355 , 415 puerperal fever, 282–3 quantum mechanics, 233 Quebec Bridge collapse (1907), 33 Quetelet, Adolphe de, 233 racial discrimination, 208 , 209 radical uncertainty, xv–xvi ; definition of term, 14–15 ; disappearance from mainstream, 73–4 , 351–2 , 356 , 357 ; triumph of subjective probability over, 20 , 72–84 , 110–14 ; see also decision-making under uncertainty; uncertainty railways, 48 , 49 , 315 ; HS2 proposals, 364 , 372 Rainwater, Richard, 288 Rajan, Raghuram, 317 Ramanujan, Srinivasa, 432 Ramsey, Frank, 73 , 80 , 84 Rand, Ayn: Atlas Shrugged , 226 ; The Fountainhead , 288 Rand Corporation, 248 Ranke, Leopold von, 187–8 rationality: Aristotle’s view of, 137 , 147 ; biases in context, 141–8 , 162 ; ‘bounded rationality concept, 149–53 ; cognitive illusions, 141–2 ; and communication, 265–8 , 269–77 ; communicative , 172 , 267–77 , 279–82 , 412 , 414–16 ; and cooperation/collective intelligence, 155 , 162 , 176 , 231 , 272–7 , 279–82 , 343 , 412 , 413–17 , 432 ; evolutionary, 16–17 , 47 , 152–3 , 154–5 , 171–3 , 272 , 401 , 428–31 ; hegemony of optimisation, 40–2 , 110–14 ; invisible gorilla experiment, 140 ; Kahneman’s dual systems, 170–1 , 172 , 271 ; legal reasoning, 194–5 , 196–8 , 205–7 , 210–14 , 410 , 415 , 416 ; meaning of as contested, 79 , 80 , 136 ; and nudge theory, 148–9 ; optimism and confidence, 167–70 , 330 , 427–8 ; ordinary usage of term, 136–7 ; ‘rational expectations theory, 342–5 , 346–50 ; reasoning as not decision-making, 268–71 ; styles of reasoning, 137–9 , 147 ; technical meaning in economics, 12 , 16 , 436 ; von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms, 435–6 ; ‘wisdom of crowds’, 47 , 413–14 ; ‘in the zone’ phrase, 140–1 ; see also axiomatic rationality; narrative and contextual reasoning; reference narrative concept Rees, Martin, 39 , 40 reference narrative concept, 123–4 , 160–2 , 294–300 , 305–7 , 330 , 334 , 336 , 358 ; and Abbottabad raid (2011), 122–3 , 277 , 298 ; and business strategy, 286–90 , 296–7 ; changes to, 155 ; and collective intelligence, 155 , 160–1 ; and definition of risk, 123–4 , 306 , 307 , 332 , 355 , 421 ; definition of term, 122 ; and first-rate decision-making, 285 , 424 ; and gambling, 125–6 ; and insurance markets, 125 , 126 , 160–1 ; and regulators, 313 ; robustness and resilience, 123 , 294–8 , 332 , 335 , 374 , 423–5 ; secure reference narratives, 127 , 426–31 , 432 reflexivity , 35–6 , 309 , 394 regulators, 310–12 , 313–14 ; pension models, 312–13 , 405 ; prescribed risk models, 9 , 312–13 ; and probabilistic reasoning, 38 , 49 , 311–12 ; Solvency II directives, 312 ; Value at risk models (VaR), 366–8 , 405 religion, 220 Renaissance artists, 143 , 147 , 418 , 419 , 421 , 428 resolvable uncertainty, 14 , 37 , 42 Retail Motor Federation, 252 , 254 retail prices index, 330–1 retirement planning, 10–12 Ricardo, David, 249–50 , 252 , 253–4 , 255 , 382 risk: anticipating, 128–30 ; as asymmetric, 121 ; and causes of 2007–08 crash, 422–3 ; as central dynamic of capitalism, 170 ; certainty as not same as absence of, 329–30 ; definition in finance theory, 420–1 ; dictionary definition, 120–1 , 306 , 332 , 421 ; as different to uncertainty, 12–14 , 15–16 , 17 , 74 , 305–6 , 355 , 420 ; and expectations narrative, 121–2 , 341–2 ; and financial regulation, 9 , 38 , 49 , 310–12 ; intergenerational sharing of, 328–9 ; ‘market risk’–‘market specific risk’ distinction, 308–9 ; models of diversification, 304–5 , 307–9 , 317–18 , 334–7 ; mutualisation of, 160 , 162 , 192 , 325–6 ; as not a characteristic of an asset, 332 ; ordinary usage of term, 123–4 , 306 , 324 , 421 ; pension models, 312–13 , 405 ; pre-crisis models, 6–7 , 9 , 68 , 202 , 246–7 , 260 , 311–12 , 339 , 407 ; priced as a commodity, 124 , 420–1 ; as product of a portfolio as a whole, 332 ; quantification of, 6–7 , 8–10 , 12 , 15–16 , 68 , 124–5 , 311–12 , 326–7 , 332–3 , 420 ; ‘risk as feelings’ perspective, 128–9 , 310 ; risk weights, 310 , 311 ; and securitisation, 311 , 316 – 18 , 366–7 , 401 ; social risk-sharing, 159–61 ; technical meaning in economics, 12 , 305–6 , 307 , 333 , 421 ; tension between different meanings of, 305–12 , 332 , 334 , 415 , 420 , 421 ; ‘training base’ (historical data series), 406 ; Value at risk models (VaR), 366–8 , 405 , 424 ; and volatility, 124–5 , 310 , 333 , 335–7 , 421–3 ; see also reference narrative concept risk aversion , 117 , 124–5 , 127–8 , 306 , 420–1 RiskMetrics, 366 Rittel, Horst, 22 Ritz casino, London, 38 , 83 rocket technology, 373–4 Rome, classical, 142 Romer, Paul, 93 , 95 , 357 , 394 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 25 , 26 , 167 , 218–19 , 240 , 266 , 269 , 390 , 411–12 Rosling, Hans, Factfulness , 389 Royal Bank of Scotland, 257 Royal Shakespeare Company, 217 Royal Society, 55 , 56 Royal Statistical Society, 197 , 203 Rumelt, Richard, 30 , 178–80 , 184 , 296 ; Good Strategy/Bad Strategy , 10 , 407 Rumsfeld, Donald, 7–8 , 295 , 413 Russell, Bertrand, 421–2 Russian roulette, 438–9 Ryle, Gilbert, 192 Sala, Emiliano, 265 Salem witch trials, 230 Samuelson, Paul, xv , 42 , 108–9 , 110–11 , 125 , 130 , 135 , 285 , 304 Sandemose, Aksel, 430 San Francisco, 48 ; earthquake, 32–3 Sargent, Thomas, 342 sat nav systems, 395–6 Saudi Arabia, 363 Savage, Jimmie, 111–12 , 113–14 , 125 , 133 , 135 , 249 , 309–10 , 345 , 392 , 400 ; and Allais paradox, 442–3 ; billiards analogy, 257–8 ; von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms, 111 , 435–6 , 437 ; The Foundations of Statistics (1954), 112–13 , 443 Schelling, Thomas, 281 Schoemaker, Paul, 137 science fiction, 219 scientific reasoning, 18–20 , 32–3 , 219 , 233 , 239 , 383 ; and narratives, 283–5 , 388–9 ; Newtonian mechanics, 259 , 260 , 392 ; observation as trumping theory, 389 ; search for unified theory of everything, 219 ; and stationarity, 18–19 , 35 , 236 , 373–4 , 388 , 392 , 429–31 ; string theory, 357 ; Thales of Miletus, 303–4 ; validity of research findings, 242–7 Scott, James, 167 Scott, Rick, 189 Scottish Enlightenment, 163 , 187 Scottish Widows Fund, 325 , 328 Sears, 287–9 , 292 Second World War, 24–6 , 119 , 168 , 169 , 187 , 218–19 , 266 , 292 , 293 ; D-Day, 266 , 294 securities trading, 55 , 82–3 , 268–9 , 316–18 , 366–7 , 401 , 411 ; derivative markets, 318 , 422–3 ; price volatility, 310 , 336 , 422–3 seismology, 32–3 Sellar and Yeatman, 1066 And All That , 426 Selvin, Steven, 62 Semmelweis, Ignaz, 283 , 306 Seward, William, 290 Shackle, George, 109 , 188 Shakespeare, William, 217 , 218 , 225 , 226 , 304–5 , 307 , 393 shareholder value, xiv–xv , 41 , 228 , 305 , 409 Sharpe, William, 318 Shell, 222–3 , 295 Sherlock (BBC series), 147 Shiller, Robert, 229 , 230 , 252 , 314 , 320 Shockley, William, 438 Silicon Valley, 49 , 228 , 276 , 335 , 427 Silver, Nate, 74–6 , 202 , 241 Simon, Herbert, 135 , 136 , 149–51 , 175 Simons, Daniel, 140 Simons, Jim, 269 , 319–20 , 336 Simpson, O.

…

., 293 , 294 Paulson, John, 422–3 Pearl Harbor attack (1941), 25 , 26 , 218–19 , 266 , 279 pensions, 312–13 , 328–9 , 405 , 424 ; index-linked, 330–1 ; interference with indices, 330–1 ; search for illusory certainty, 330 , 423 Pentagon Papers, 135 , 282 Perry, Captain, 420 perspective in art, 142–3 Petty, Sir William, 56 pharmaceutical companies, 243–5 , 284 Phillips, Bill, 339 , 340 Pierce, Charles Sanders, 137–9 pigeons, 274 Pitt, Brad, 273 plague, 56 , 57 , 166 Planck, Max, 285 , 386 , 387 , 388 , 411 , 429 planetary motion, 18–19 , 35 , 373–4 , 389 , 391–2 , 394 Plato, 54 Poisson, Siméon-Denis, 199 , 235 poker, 263 , 268 , 273 policing, 208 Polybius (Greek historian), 54 , 186 , 187 Popper, Karl, 36 ; falsificationism, 259–60 poverty, 389 , 390 practical knowledge, 22–6 , 195 , 255 , 352 , 382–8 , 395–6 , 398–9 , 405 , 414–15 , 431 pragmatist philosophy, 137 Prescott, Edward, 352–4 , 356 presidential election, US (2016), 241–2 Príncipe, island of, 259 Prisoner’s Dilemma, 248–9 , 252 , 393 probabilistic reasoning: as absent from pre-modern thought, 54–5 ; Bayes’ theorem, 60–7 , 70–1 , 114 , 117–20 , 127 , 179 , 196 , 203 , 204 , 210 , 420 ; Bortkiewicz model, 235–6 ; Central Limit Theorem, 234 ; compound probability , 59–60 , 197 , 198 , 200–4 ; conditional probabilities , 61 , 66–7 , 70 , 204 ; and confidence, 8–9 , 71–2 , 86 , 87–9 , 96–7 , 403 ; ‘dependent’ and ‘explanatory’ variables, 246–7 ; disguising of uncertainty by, 374 ; and economic variables, 6–7 , 12 , 15 , 34 , 45–6 , 58 , 72–4 , 83 , 95–6 ; expected value , 60 , 106–9 , 114–16 , 124–5 ; and Friedman, 74 , 400 , 420 ; and games of chance, 37–8 , 42 , 53–4 , 57–8 , 59–60 , 64–5 , 69 , 83 , 420 ; and imperfect information, 12 , 41–4 , 65–8 , 80–2 , 92–4 , 98 , 118–19 , 129 , 155 , 277 , 320–1 ; Indifference Principle, 63–6 , 107 ; infinite regress issue, 443 ; Keynes on, 105 ; and known distribution of outcomes, 14 , 16 , 37–8 , 43 , 57–65 , 69–70 , 87 ; and the law, 196 , 197 , 198–203 , 206–7 , 210–12 , 214 ; and likelihood, 86–7 , 89–91 , 96–7 , 206–7 , 403 ; the ‘Linda problem’, 90–1 , 98 ; and markets in risk, 55–7 ; models as contingent and transitory, 235–6 ; the Monty Hall problem, 62–3 , 64–6 , 98 , 100 , 113 , 139 , 203 , 204 ; mortality tables and life insurance, 56–7 , 69 , 232–3 ; non-stationary nature of social sciences, 235–6 ; Pascal and Fermat, 53 , 56 , 57 , 59–60 , 106 ; Pascal’s wager, 64 , 80 ; posterior distribution, 100 ; ‘probabilistic turn’ in human thought, 20 , 49 , 53–4 , 55–68 ; probability theory, 42–3 , 55 , 58 , 59–68 , 69–70 , 71–2 , 105 ; the problem of points, 59–60 , 61 , 64–5 , 106 , 113 ; puzzle-mystery distinction, 20–4 , 32–4 , 48–9 , 64–8 , 100 , 155 , 173–7 , 218 , 249 , 398 , 400–1 ; and reinsurers, 326 ; and risk-uncertainty distinction, 12–17 , 20 , 22 , 23 , 26 , 305–6 , 355 , 420 ; ‘rodeo problem’, 206–7 ; scope of, 37–8 ; and screening for cancer, 66–7 , 206 ; spurious application to uncertainty, 8–10 , 15–16 , 20 , 34 , 70 , 74–84 , 85–94 , 197–204 , 246–7 , 320–1 , 372 , 435–44 ; ‘St Petersburg paradox’, 114–16 , 199 ; statistical discrimination, 207–9 , 415 ; and Taleb’s ‘black swans’, 14 , 38–40 , 42 ; tension with mutualisation, 328–9 ; Tetlock and Gardner’s ideas, 294–5 ; two-envelope problem, 107–8 ; and unique events/projects, 23–6 , 38–40 , 57 , 70 , 71–2 , 96–7 , 138 , 174 , 177 , 188 , 192–5 , 338–9 ; see also axiomatic rationality; statistics; subjective probabilities productivity, 347 public sector organisations, 183 , 355 , 415 puerperal fever, 282–3 quantum mechanics, 233 Quebec Bridge collapse (1907), 33 Quetelet, Adolphe de, 233 racial discrimination, 208 , 209 radical uncertainty, xv–xvi ; definition of term, 14–15 ; disappearance from mainstream, 73–4 , 351–2 , 356 , 357 ; triumph of subjective probability over, 20 , 72–84 , 110–14 ; see also decision-making under uncertainty; uncertainty railways, 48 , 49 , 315 ; HS2 proposals, 364 , 372 Rainwater, Richard, 288 Rajan, Raghuram, 317 Ramanujan, Srinivasa, 432 Ramsey, Frank, 73 , 80 , 84 Rand, Ayn: Atlas Shrugged , 226 ; The Fountainhead , 288 Rand Corporation, 248 Ranke, Leopold von, 187–8 rationality: Aristotle’s view of, 137 , 147 ; biases in context, 141–8 , 162 ; ‘bounded rationality concept, 149–53 ; cognitive illusions, 141–2 ; and communication, 265–8 , 269–77 ; communicative , 172 , 267–77 , 279–82 , 412 , 414–16 ; and cooperation/collective intelligence, 155 , 162 , 176 , 231 , 272–7 , 279–82 , 343 , 412 , 413–17 , 432 ; evolutionary, 16–17 , 47 , 152–3 , 154–5 , 171–3 , 272 , 401 , 428–31 ; hegemony of optimisation, 40–2 , 110–14 ; invisible gorilla experiment, 140 ; Kahneman’s dual systems, 170–1 , 172 , 271 ; legal reasoning, 194–5 , 196–8 , 205–7 , 210–14 , 410 , 415 , 416 ; meaning of as contested, 79 , 80 , 136 ; and nudge theory, 148–9 ; optimism and confidence, 167–70 , 330 , 427–8 ; ordinary usage of term, 136–7 ; ‘rational expectations theory, 342–5 , 346–50 ; reasoning as not decision-making, 268–71 ; styles of reasoning, 137–9 , 147 ; technical meaning in economics, 12 , 16 , 436 ; von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms, 435–6 ; ‘wisdom of crowds’, 47 , 413–14 ; ‘in the zone’ phrase, 140–1 ; see also axiomatic rationality; narrative and contextual reasoning; reference narrative concept Rees, Martin, 39 , 40 reference narrative concept, 123–4 , 160–2 , 294–300 , 305–7 , 330 , 334 , 336 , 358 ; and Abbottabad raid (2011), 122–3 , 277 , 298 ; and business strategy, 286–90 , 296–7 ; changes to, 155 ; and collective intelligence, 155 , 160–1 ; and definition of risk, 123–4 , 306 , 307 , 332 , 355 , 421 ; definition of term, 122 ; and first-rate decision-making, 285 , 424 ; and gambling, 125–6 ; and insurance markets, 125 , 126 , 160–1 ; and regulators, 313 ; robustness and resilience, 123 , 294–8 , 332 , 335 , 374 , 423–5 ; secure reference narratives, 127 , 426–31 , 432 reflexivity , 35–6 , 309 , 394 regulators, 310–12 , 313–14 ; pension models, 312–13 , 405 ; prescribed risk models, 9 , 312–13 ; and probabilistic reasoning, 38 , 49 , 311–12 ; Solvency II directives, 312 ; Value at risk models (VaR), 366–8 , 405 religion, 220 Renaissance artists, 143 , 147 , 418 , 419 , 421 , 428 resolvable uncertainty, 14 , 37 , 42 Retail Motor Federation, 252 , 254 retail prices index, 330–1 retirement planning, 10–12 Ricardo, David, 249–50 , 252 , 253–4 , 255 , 382 risk: anticipating, 128–30 ; as asymmetric, 121 ; and causes of 2007–08 crash, 422–3 ; as central dynamic of capitalism, 170 ; certainty as not same as absence of, 329–30 ; definition in finance theory, 420–1 ; dictionary definition, 120–1 , 306 , 332 , 421 ; as different to uncertainty, 12–14 , 15–16 , 17 , 74 , 305–6 , 355 , 420 ; and expectations narrative, 121–2 , 341–2 ; and financial regulation, 9 , 38 , 49 , 310–12 ; intergenerational sharing of, 328–9 ; ‘market risk’–‘market specific risk’ distinction, 308–9 ; models of diversification, 304–5 , 307–9 , 317–18 , 334–7 ; mutualisation of, 160 , 162 , 192 , 325–6 ; as not a characteristic of an asset, 332 ; ordinary usage of term, 123–4 , 306 , 324 , 421 ; pension models, 312–13 , 405 ; pre-crisis models, 6–7 , 9 , 68 , 202 , 246–7 , 260 , 311–12 , 339 , 407 ; priced as a commodity, 124 , 420–1 ; as product of a portfolio as a whole, 332 ; quantification of, 6–7 , 8–10 , 12 , 15–16 , 68 , 124–5 , 311–12 , 326–7 , 332–3 , 420 ; ‘risk as feelings’ perspective, 128–9 , 310 ; risk weights, 310 , 311 ; and securitisation, 311 , 316 – 18 , 366–7 , 401 ; social risk-sharing, 159–61 ; technical meaning in economics, 12 , 305–6 , 307 , 333 , 421 ; tension between different meanings of, 305–12 , 332 , 334 , 415 , 420 , 421 ; ‘training base’ (historical data series), 406 ; Value at risk models (VaR), 366–8 , 405 , 424 ; and volatility, 124–5 , 310 , 333 , 335–7 , 421–3 ; see also reference narrative concept risk aversion , 117 , 124–5 , 127–8 , 306 , 420–1 RiskMetrics, 366 Rittel, Horst, 22 Ritz casino, London, 38 , 83 rocket technology, 373–4 Rome, classical, 142 Romer, Paul, 93 , 95 , 357 , 394 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 25 , 26 , 167 , 218–19 , 240 , 266 , 269 , 390 , 411–12 Rosling, Hans, Factfulness , 389 Royal Bank of Scotland, 257 Royal Shakespeare Company, 217 Royal Society, 55 , 56 Royal Statistical Society, 197 , 203 Rumelt, Richard, 30 , 178–80 , 184 , 296 ; Good Strategy/Bad Strategy , 10 , 407 Rumsfeld, Donald, 7–8 , 295 , 413 Russell, Bertrand, 421–2 Russian roulette, 438–9 Ryle, Gilbert, 192 Sala, Emiliano, 265 Salem witch trials, 230 Samuelson, Paul, xv , 42 , 108–9 , 110–11 , 125 , 130 , 135 , 285 , 304 Sandemose, Aksel, 430 San Francisco, 48 ; earthquake, 32–3 Sargent, Thomas, 342 sat nav systems, 395–6 Saudi Arabia, 363 Savage, Jimmie, 111–12 , 113–14 , 125 , 133 , 135 , 249 , 309–10 , 345 , 392 , 400 ; and Allais paradox, 442–3 ; billiards analogy, 257–8 ; von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms, 111 , 435–6 , 437 ; The Foundations of Statistics (1954), 112–13 , 443 Schelling, Thomas, 281 Schoemaker, Paul, 137 science fiction, 219 scientific reasoning, 18–20 , 32–3 , 219 , 233 , 239 , 383 ; and narratives, 283–5 , 388–9 ; Newtonian mechanics, 259 , 260 , 392 ; observation as trumping theory, 389 ; search for unified theory of everything, 219 ; and stationarity, 18–19 , 35 , 236 , 373–4 , 388 , 392 , 429–31 ; string theory, 357 ; Thales of Miletus, 303–4 ; validity of research findings, 242–7 Scott, James, 167 Scott, Rick, 189 Scottish Enlightenment, 163 , 187 Scottish Widows Fund, 325 , 328 Sears, 287–9 , 292 Second World War, 24–6 , 119 , 168 , 169 , 187 , 218–19 , 266 , 292 , 293 ; D-Day, 266 , 294 securities trading, 55 , 82–3 , 268–9 , 316–18 , 366–7 , 401 , 411 ; derivative markets, 318 , 422–3 ; price volatility, 310 , 336 , 422–3 seismology, 32–3 Sellar and Yeatman, 1066 And All That , 426 Selvin, Steven, 62 Semmelweis, Ignaz, 283 , 306 Seward, William, 290 Shackle, George, 109 , 188 Shakespeare, William, 217 , 218 , 225 , 226 , 304–5 , 307 , 393 shareholder value, xiv–xv , 41 , 228 , 305 , 409 Sharpe, William, 318 Shell, 222–3 , 295 Sherlock (BBC series), 147 Shiller, Robert, 229 , 230 , 252 , 314 , 320 Shockley, William, 438 Silicon Valley, 49 , 228 , 276 , 335 , 427 Silver, Nate, 74–6 , 202 , 241 Simon, Herbert, 135 , 136 , 149–51 , 175 Simons, Daniel, 140 Simons, Jim, 269 , 319–20 , 336 Simpson, O.

Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life by Rory Sutherland

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, Alfred Russel Wallace, barriers to entry, basic income, behavioural economics, Black Swan, Brexit referendum, butterfly effect, California gold rush, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Cass Sunstein, cognitive dissonance, confounding variable, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dava Sobel, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, double helix, Downton Abbey, driverless car, Easter island, Edward Jenner, Elon Musk, Firefox, Ford Model T, General Magic , George Akerlof, gig economy, Google Chrome, Google X / Alphabet X, Grace Hopper, Hyperloop, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, IKEA effect, information asymmetry, it is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it, James Dyson, John Harrison: Longitude, loss aversion, low cost airline, Mason jar, Murray Gell-Mann, nudge theory, Peter Thiel, placebo effect, race to the bottom, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, Rory Sutherland, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, systems thinking, TED Talk, the map is not the territory, The Market for Lemons, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, ultimatum game, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, US Airways Flight 1549, Veblen good, work culture

Not only can a rational approach to pricing be very destructive of perceived savings, but it also assumes that everyone reacts to savings the same way. They don’t, and context and framing matter. One of my favourite ever experiments on the perception of price and value came from the father of ‘Nudge Theory’, Richard Thaler. He asked a group of sophisticated wine enthusiasts to imagine that they had bought a bottle of vintage wine (that was now worth $75) some years before for $20. Then he asked them to choose an answer that best reflected the cost to them of drinking the bottle: $0. I already paid for it: 30 per cent $20.

…

The Righteous Mind (2012). ‘. . . offered a possible evolutionary explanation.’, Colin Barras, ‘Evolution could explain the placebo effect’, New Scientist (6 September 2012). ‘. . . and more by our perception of it’, ‘The Vodka-Red-Bull Placebo Effect’, Atlantic (8 June 2017). ‘. . . the father of ‘Nudge Theory’, Richard Thaler’ Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (2008). ‘. . . often outdone by the taste of the latter’.’, Lucas Derks and Jaap Hollander, Essenties van NLP (1996). ‘. . . for leather car seats than for books on tape.”, Daniel Kahneman, ‘Focusing Illusion’, Edge (2011).

Sam Friedman and Daniel Laurison by The Class Ceiling Why it Pays to be Privileged (2019, Policy Press)

affirmative action, Ascot racecourse, Boris Johnson, Bullingdon Club, classic study, critical race theory, discrete time, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, emotional labour, equal pay for equal work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, Hyperloop, if you build it, they will come, imposter syndrome, income inequality, invisible hand, Jeremy Corbyn, job satisfaction, knowledge economy, longitudinal study, Martin Parr, meritocracy, meta-analysis, microaggression, nudge theory, nudge unit, old-boy network, performance metric, psychological pricing, school choice, Skype, starchitect, The Spirit Level, the strength of weak ties, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, W. E. B. Du Bois, work culture

He eschewed the contemporary language of social mobility embraced more readily by professional service firms, feeling that architecture was now an established level-playing field. See Thaler and Sunstein (2009). The Behavioural Insights Team, also known as the Nudge Unit, is an organisation that was set up inside the Cabinet Office to apply nudge theory to UK government policy in many areas, including social mobility. Erickson’s (1996) classic study finds a similar effect in terms of the use of popular culture as a bridging tool that aids cross-class interaction and coordination in workplaces. Chapter Nine 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 APPG on Social Mobility (2012).

…

-C. 306n23, 308n14 Bourdieusian approach 186–8, 195 Breen, R. and Goldthorpe, J.H. 294n2 Bridge Group 229, 231, 235, 236 Socio-economic diversity in the Civil Service Fast Stream 230 British Broadcasting Corporation see BBC British Social Attitudes survey 2016 286n31 Britton, J. et al 295n18 C capital (Bourdieu) Bourdieu on 186–7 class as total 196–7 cultural 14–17, 162, 164, 197, 199–203 dimensions of 194 economic 14, 24, 90, 93, 105–6, 197 embodied cultural 154, 187, 197, 199–208 ‘field-specific’ 199, 201–3 social 14, 110, 149, 162, 164 technical 141, 187, 203–8 Carter, C. and Spence, C. 159 Casciaro, T. and Lobo, M.S. 301n18 CCIs see cultural and creative industries CEOs (Chief Executive Officers) 33fig, 35fig, 40, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig Charlesworth, S.J. 314n71 Chetty, R. 192 Chinese ethnic group 42–3, 49fig, 51, 52fig Civil Service, Opportunity Network 237 ‘Clarendon Schools’ 148 class ‘death of ’ 5–6 origins and destinations 10–17 as multidimensional 196 class pay gap 7–9, 47–55, 57–70 within companies 85 company size and 67–9 demographic differences 59–60 drivers of 70fig, 86fig, 217fig education and 61–5 and elite occupations 52–5 and gender pay gap 50–1 and racial-ethnic pay gap 51–2 class-structural approach 189 client matching 147, 158–64 comportment 14, 132, 200 confidence cultural 154 fallacy of 23–7 and fitting in 124, 130, 151 misinterpretation of 102 and progression 19 and sponsorship 114 and typecasting 99 confidentiality 274 contest mobility 109 Coopers (architects) 81–3, 105–7 belonging 174–5 culture of 164–8 and embodied cultural capital 206 female representation 82, 120–1 fitting in 140–3 glass ceiling 143, 207 hierarchy 83 internal and external culture 164–8 merit 225–6 opting out 175 parental financial support 105–7 privilege 82, 83fig 361 The Class Ceiling racial-ethnic representation 82 researching 246–7 and sponsored mobility 118–21 working-class 82, 83fig Corbyn, J. 287n39 corporate senior management 33fig, 35fig, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig Crawford, C. et al 295n21 Crenshaw, K. 289n75 cultural affinity 111, 116, 122, 214 cultural and creative industries (CCIs), precarity of 91 ‘EGP’ (Erikson, Goldthorpe and Portocarero) approach 288n53 Elias, N. 302n3 elite signals 148, 156 Ellis, A.J. 306n20 embodied cultural capital 154, 187, 197, 199–208 emotional cost 173–4, 175, 178–83 engineering 33fig, 35fig, 40, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig, 54 Equality Act 2010 237, 296n1 The Equality Trust 238 Erickson, B.H. 307n38 ‘cultural competency’ 126 ‘cultural guides’ 120 F failure, anticipation of 173 ‘Fairer Scotland Duty’ 237 fairness 8, 9–10 feeding back 219–20, 273 Feinstein, L. 294n5 field (Bourdieu) 186–7, 198–9 ‘field-specific capital’ 199, 201–3 film and television industry access to 33fig class pay gap 53fig, 54–5 education 136 female representation 40, 42fig, 73 micro-class reproduction 34, 35fig racial-ethnic representation 40, 41fig, 73 social exclusivity 40, 74fig finance 33fig, 35fig, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig, 54 fire service chiefs 33fig, 35fig, 40, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig first class degree, earnings premium 38, 39fig, 64 fitting in 123–44 behavioural codes 134–40 ‘glass slipper’ 125–7 merit 144 polish 127–34 technical skill 140–3 cultural capital 14–17, 162, 164, 197, 199–203 D decomposition 58, 269 degree classification 63–4 deregulation 7, 246 disability 39–40, 41–2, 49, 51 discrimination 17, 40, 45, 57, 144, 224–5, 276 domestic migration 66–7 Dorling, D. 299n22 double disadvantage 50–2, 191, 218, 302n30 dress codes 126, 128–9, 134–5 Durkheimian approach 311n34 E Eagly, A.H. and Carli, L.L. 289n71 education and access to elite occupations 35–9 Bourdieu on 172–3 and embodied cultural capital 199–200 as ‘equaliser’ 61–5 grammar schools 6, 166 private 46, 78–81, 94, 104, 121, 123, 157, 159, 162, 172 public (elite private) 148–9 362 Index Fleming, P. 125–6 France, class pay gap 47 Friedman, S. 308n14 Future Leaders scheme 123–4, 244 G gatekeepers 114, 132, 144, 147–8, 166, 187 gender anxiety and 180–2 and dress 129 and merit 226 and technical capital 207 and tradition 39–40 under-representation of females 42fig see also double disadvantage; glass ceiling; intersectionality gender pay gap 45–6, 49, 61, 143, 221 ‘gig economy’ 91, 241, 270 glass ceiling 17–19, 45, 120, 143, 186, 190–1, 218 glass escalator 310n24 glass slipper 124–7, 128, 132, 133, 136, 142–3 globalisation 7, 286n17 Goldthorpe, J. 6, 8, 10, 189, 311n31 Goldthorpe, J. et al 309n7, 311n30 Goodall, L. 46 grammar schools 6, 166 Granovetter, M. 110 gravitas 159–60 H habitus (Bourdieu) 14–15, 186, 194, 198 Bourdieu on 288n69, 307n9, 308n1, 308n18, 314n80, 314n81 Hall, T. 45–6 Harman, H. 237 Heath, A.F. 310n20 hexis 200, 202 highbrow culture at 6TV 145–7, 150–6, 206, 219 as barrier 149–50, 164, 167 Bourdieu on 200 and privileged networks 168 Ho, K. 306n28 Hoggart, R. 307n35 homophily 214–15 and glass ceiling 17, 190 sponsorships and 113–14, 119, 120, 121 horizontal segregation 69, 272 Hout, M. 61 human capital 88, 90 I imposter syndrome 179 Indian ethnic group 42, 43, 49fig, 52fig individualisation 6, 26, 114, 144, 162 industry, decline in 6 Ingram, N. and Allen, K. 126 insecurity economic 91, 93 emotional 120, 139, 173, 179–83 institutionalised cultural capital 199, 315n92 intergenerational transfer 9, 15, 192, 193, 222 internships 149, 234 intersectionality 18–19, 40–4, 139, 190–1, 223, 233, 293n17 see also double disadvantage intra-generational mobility 193 IQ (intelligence quotient) 57, 61 isolation 181–2 IT 33fig, 35fig, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig J Jencks, C. et al 290n83, 311n29 Johnson, B. 57 Jones, D. 306n20 journalism class pay gap 53fig, 294n19 363 The Class Ceiling female representation 42fig Labour Force Survey (LFS) 264t micro-class reproduction 35fig privilege and 32, 33fig, 205 racial-ethnic representation 41fig and social mobility 30fig Just Fair 238 Lizardo, O. 149 ‘locus of control’ 23 London City of 19, 132, 212 parental financial support 24 privileged employment 22, 66, 69, 80, 106, 212 salary 66–7 senior positions 77 K Kitagawa, E 320n23 Koppman, S. 305n18, 313n58 KPMG 78, 230 Kuhn, A. 17 Kynaston, D. 132 M Macron, E. 29 management consultancy 33fig, 35fig, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig Matthew, M. 304n30 May, T. 7, 29 measurement of class background 230–2 medicine 33fig, 35fig, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig ‘merit’ measures 67fig, 68fig meritocracy 232–3 City of London 132, 133 and cultural similarity 111, 168–9 as driver 58, 62, 65 education 21–2, 61–3 and fitting in 144, 212–14, 215–19, 220–2 justification 88 ‘occupational effects’ and 198–9 and popular culture 179 and privilege 102, 103, 226–7 and progression 4–5 and sponsorship 118, 122 and technical capital 204 in UK 5, 7, 38–9 Weber on 4 meritocratic ideal 209, 210, 298n4 meritocratic legitimacy 8, 104 methodology 239–83 6TV 242–4 confidentiality 274 Coopers 246–7 elite occupation definition 265–6 L Labour Force Survey see LFS Lamont, M. and Lareau, A. 315n88 language 15, 128, 137–9, 151, 155–8, 306n23 see also speech Lareau, A. 15–16, 120 law class pay gap 53fig education 37 female representation 42fig micro-class reproduction 34, 35fig privilege 32, 33fig, 54, 85 progression in 19 racial-ethnic representation 41fig unpaid internships 234 Lawler, S. 18, 51, 308n15 Lawler, S. and Payne, G. 302n6 legal protection 237–8 Lexmond, J. and Reeves, R. 302n11 LFS (Labour Force Survey) 10, 30–1, 65, 72, 189–90, 240–3, 263–8, 271 life sciences 33fig, 35fig, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig linearity of career 196 Lineker, G. 45 ‘linguistic capital’ 306n23 364 Index feeding back 219–20, 273 interviews 247, 248t–60t measurement of social mobility 262–5 Turner Clarke (TC) 244–6 see also LFS (Labour Force Survey) microaggressions 17, 190, 224–5, 304n29 micro-class reproduction 34–5, 192 middle-class socialisation 126 Mijs, J.J.B. 298n4 Milburn, A. 9, 29–30 Miller, N. 229 Mills, C.W. 132, 148, 319n16 mixed race ethnic group 42, 43fig, 49fig, 51, 52fig Morrissey, D. 84 Mosca, G. 319n16 multiple race ethnic group 42 Murray, C. 57 N ‘neo-institutional theory’ 301n21, 303n26 networks and highbrow culture 149–50, 168 and inequality 121–2 old boys’ network 17, 109, 132, 211 and sponsorship 110, 115, 118 Norway, class pay gap 47 NS-SEC (National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification) 11, 222, 263–5 nudge theory 307n37 O objectified cultural capital 199 ‘objective merit’ 2, 168, 212, 214, 221 O’Brien, D. 241 ‘occupational effects’ 198–9 ‘old boys’ network’ 17, 109, 132, 211 ‘opportunity cost’ 182 ‘opportunity hoarding’ 148, 164 other Asian ethnic group 43fig, 49fig, 52fig otherness 146 Oxbridge 2, 3, 62, 63, 148, 155 P PACT (Producers Alliance for Cinema and Television) 243, 297n5 Paired Peers project 299n18 Pakistani ethnic group 40, 41fig, 42fig, 43–4, 49, 51, 52fig parental financial support 87–107 for actors 87–105 at Coopers 105–7 at Turner Clarke (TC) 105–7 parental occupation 31–2, 231–2, 240, 263 performing arts 33fig, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig Pfeffer, J. 290n83, 320n28 Piketty, T. 286n25 police service chiefs 33fig, 35fig, 40, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig Policy Exchange 286n31 polish 19, 127–34, 142, 159, 161, 180 popular culture 149, 202, 219, 307n38 primary socialisation 153–4, 194, 199, 202 private sector pay 68 Producers Alliance for Cinema and Television see PACT professional and managerial sector, increase in 6, 59 professionalism 159 progress in career 19–20, 45–55 class pay gap 47–55 cultural barriers 164 and education 62 female 143, 167 fitting in 124–5, 129 and merit 4, 102–3, 109, 111, 210 365 The Class Ceiling and parental financial support 90, 101, 106 and polish 127–34 self-elimination 173 sponsorship 113, 115, 118, 121 technical capital and 203 public assets, sale of 7 public sector access to 32, 33fig, 34 class pay gap 53fig, 68 female representation 42fig micro-class approach 35fig racial-ethnic representation 41fig public spending cuts 7 Puwar, N. 158 R racial-ethnic minorities at 6TV 139 access to elite occupations 20–1, 43fig at Coopers 82 and glass ceiling 190 and higher education 280fig, 281fig and IQ 57 pay gap 49–50, 283fig progression 21 at Turner Clarke (TC) 114 and upward social mobility 18 see also double disadvantage; intersectionality Received Pronunciation see RP Reeves, A. and de Vries, R. 315n91 Reeves, R. 149 regional differences 66–7, 80, 106 regression analysis 58, 268–9 Reith, Lord 306n21 RIBA (Royal Institute of British Architects) 175 Rivera, L. 19, 113, 129, 131, 223 Rollock, N. 289n80 Royal Institute of British Architects see RIBA RP (Received Pronunciation) 128, 156–8 Russell Group universities 38, 39fig, 62, 63fig, 100 S Saunders, P. 294n2 Savage, M. 205, 207 Sayer, A. 299n20 science, career in 33fig, 35fig, 41fig, 42fig, 53fig self-elimination 171–83 cultural mimicry 177–8 emotional self-protection 175 opting out 174–5 playing safe 175–7 self-worth 173 service-based economy 7 Sherman, R. 103 Skeggs, B. 18 SMC (Social Mobility Commission) 9, 57 social bridging 149 social capital 14–15, 110, 149, 162, 164 social closure 147–50, 189 social mobility, measurement of 30fig, 262–5 Social Mobility Business Compact 230 Social Mobility Commission see SMC Social Mobility Employer Index 230 Social Mobility Index 2017 305n3 Socioeconomic Duty 237–8 ‘sociology of elite recruitment’ 188–9 space, egalitarian organisation of 79 speech 126, 128, 156–8 see also language speed of career 176, 196 Spence, C. and Carter, C. 298n16 sponsorship 109–21 at 6TV 115–18 366 Index at Coopers 118–21 formalisation of 235–6 at Turner Clarke (TC) 111–15 standard mobility analysis 186, 198 standard mobility tables 188, 191–2 stereotyping 17, 218, 225, 303n28 studied informality 134–40, 142, 150 Sweden, class pay gap 47 ‘symbolic capital’ 201 ‘symbolic mastery’ 15, 16, 200 traditional/technical divide 32–4 Trump, D. 29 Turner, R.

A Pelican Introduction: Basic Income by Guy Standing

"World Economic Forum" Davos, anti-fragile, bank run, basic income, behavioural economics, Bernie Sanders, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Black Lives Matter, Black Swan, Boris Johnson, British Empire, carbon tax, centre right, collective bargaining, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, declining real wages, degrowth, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, independent contractor, intangible asset, Jeremy Corbyn, job automation, job satisfaction, Joi Ito, labour market flexibility, land value tax, libertarian paternalism, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Marc Benioff, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, mass incarceration, moral hazard, Nelson Mandela, nudge theory, offshore financial centre, open economy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Paul Samuelson, plutocrats, precariat, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, rent control, rent-seeking, Salesforce, Sam Altman, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, The Future of Employment, universal basic income, Wolfgang Streeck, women in the workforce, working poor, Y Combinator, Zipcar

The Danger of Libertarian Paternalism Many libertarians reveal themselves as little more than moralistic conservatives. Thus Charles Murray sees a basic income as encouraging ‘better’ behaviour and a revival of ‘civic culture’. This is a paternalistic argument, not one about freedom. But he is not as explicit as the new breed of libertarian paternalists, who lean on ‘behavioural economics’ and ‘nudge theory’ to justify giving a very prominent role to government to steer or nudge people to make ‘the right choices’. They have been highly influential, to the extent that one of the authors of Nudge, the seminal book on the subject, became principal regulator in Barack Obama’s White House, while the other became an adviser to the British Prime Minister.11 Libertarian paternalism has become a dominant mode of policy making in the globalization era, advocated and implemented by those calling themselves liberals (as in the case of Britain’s Liberal Democrats when they were in the coalition government) and by social democrats, as well as by conservatives.

The Startup Wife by Tahmima Anam

Anthropocene, Black Lives Matter, cryptocurrency, DeepMind, driverless car, family office, glass ceiling, Greta Thunberg, high net worth, index card, lockdown, microdosing, nudge theory, post-truth, Rubik’s Cube, self-driving car, Sheryl Sandberg, side project, Stanford marshmallow experiment, stealth mode startup, TED Talk, the High Line, TikTok

They step back from each other, then turn to face us, identical twins with matching cropped hair. “Developed by a team of social anthropologists, behavioral psychologists, and dancers, No Touch is introducing new ways to uphold social norms while maintaining safety.” They project a series of images on the screen. “We will use nudge theory and mass social marketing to promote safer greetings, such as”—and now they are folding at the waist—“bowing”—holding their palms together—“namaste”—bending at the knees—“curtseying. “We will target the fourteen-to-twenty-five age group and introduce the new behaviors as innovations. We expect that within a generation, handshakes, hugs, and casual kissing on the cheek will completely disappear.”

Bricks & Mortals: Ten Great Buildings and the People They Made by Tom Wilkinson

Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, double helix, experimental subject, false memory syndrome, financial independence, Ford Model T, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, gentrification, Google Glasses, housing crisis, Kitchen Debate, Lewis Mumford, Mahatma Gandhi, mass incarceration, megacity, neoliberal agenda, New Urbanism, nudge theory, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, scientific management, starchitect, traveling salesman, trickle-down economics, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, vertical integration

At the same time, technologies like lifts and escalators have compounded the symptoms of Western affluenza: as infectious disease has been all but eliminated from our cities, we have instead begun to die of inertia – today nobody uses Lubetkin’s social-condensing staircase at Bevin Court. In order to combat this, urbanists including New York City’s planning department have started using voguish nudge theory – the idea that people can be prodded gently in the direction of doing the right thing for their health – by designing more prominent stairs, for example, or making steps into ‘piano keys’ that emit notes when trodden on. It’s an updated version of the Peckham Health Centre’s hands-off approach, no longer motivated by eugenics but by an ideologically related hatred of regulation and welfare – and much less effective than either.

100 Years of Identity Crisis: Culture War Over Socialisation by Frank Furedi

1960s counterculture, 23andMe, Abraham Maslow, behavioural economics, Brexit referendum, Cass Sunstein, classic study, coronavirus, COVID-19, Donald Trump, epigenetics, Greta Thunberg, Gunnar Myrdal, Herbert Marcuse, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, knowledge worker, libertarian paternalism, lockdown, New Urbanism, nocebo, nudge theory, nudge unit, scientific management, the scientific method, Thorstein Veblen, work culture

A Sociological Exploration of its Infantilisation, London: Routledge, p.138. 762 www.happeemindz.com/self-awareness-a-mechanism-to-chang (accessed 23 March 2021). 763 https://ssir.org/articles/entry/stop_raising_awareness_already (accessed 23 March 2021). 764 http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/152912/1/TFG_GEI_ROIG_ANNA_JUN19.pdf (accessed 21 March 2021). 765 www.businessballs.com/improving-workplace-performance/nudge-theory/ (accessed 19 March 2021). 766 Bourdieu (2010) p.49.

Gene Eating: The Science of Obesity and the Truth About Dieting by Giles Yeo

23andMe, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, caloric restriction, caloric restriction, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, correlation does not imply causation, CRISPR, delayed gratification, Drosophila, Easter island, Gregor Mendel, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, Mark Zuckerberg, meta-analysis, microbiome, nudge theory, post-truth, publish or perish, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, Steve Jobs, TED Talk, twin studies, Wall-E, zoonotic diseases

Banning junk food does not’.18 You will note that a ‘nudge’ has no negative reinforcement, it doesn’t involve any penalty, economic or otherwise, and it cannot be mandatory. Yet this theory turned out to be such a powerful influence on so many aspects of human behaviour that Richard Thaler received the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics for his ‘Nudge’ theory.20 Nudge is based on the simple premise that people, when making decisions quickly (and sometimes even when making decisions with apparent thought), will often choose what is easiest over what is wisest. Supermarkets, for example, have known for ages that where they place items in the store powerfully influences the likelihood of whether they are bought.

Can It Happen Here?: Authoritarianism in America by Cass R. Sunstein

active measures, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, airline deregulation, anti-communist, anti-globalists, availability heuristic, behavioural economics, Black Lives Matter, Brexit referendum, business cycle, Cambridge Analytica, Cass Sunstein, cognitive load, David Brooks, disinformation, Donald Trump, driverless car, Edward Snowden, Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science, failed state, fake news, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Garrett Hardin, ghettoisation, illegal immigration, immigration reform, Isaac Newton, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Long Term Capital Management, microaggression, Nate Silver, Network effects, New Journalism, night-watchman state, nudge theory, obamacare, Paris climate accords, post-truth, Potemkin village, random walk, Richard Thaler, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, seminal paper, Steve Bannon, TED Talk, the scientific method, Tragedy of the Commons, Tyler Cowen, War on Poverty, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey

Sebelius, 382–83 NFL (National Football League), 16, 138 “Night watchman state,” 38–40, 43 Nineteen Eighty-Four (Orwell), ix Nixon, Richard, 4, 6, 7, 78–79, 109 Non-Detention Act of 1971, 316–17 Normative threat, 179, 180, 181, 185, 186–87, 193–94, 196, 201–6, 215 North Carolina, 152–53 North Korea, viii Nudging (nudge theory), 342–43 Obama, Barack, 1, 5, 6, 7, 75, 122, 129n, 222, 323, 332, 404–5 probabilistic approach of, 351–52 Obamacare, 29–31, 345–46, 351, 382–83 Office of Government Ethics, 154–55 Oligarchy, 20, 21, 23–24, 26, 29–34 O’Malley, Edward, 85 “On ‘It Can’t Happen Here’” (Feldman), 157–74 Orbán, Viktor, 147, 151, 165, 408–10, 419 Orwell, George, ix Pagès, Jean-Pierre, 291 Paine, Thomas, 331–32 Pakistan, 107 Palmer, A.

Money and Government: The Past and Future of Economics by Robert Skidelsky

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", Alan Greenspan, anti-globalists, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, barriers to entry, Basel III, basic income, Bear Stearns, behavioural economics, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, book value, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, constrained optimization, Corn Laws, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, debt deflation, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, eurozone crisis, fake news, financial deregulation, financial engineering, financial innovation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, forward guidance, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, Gini coefficient, Glass-Steagall Act, Goodhart's law, Growth in a Time of Debt, guns versus butter model, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, incomplete markets, inflation targeting, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kondratiev cycle, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, land bank, law of one price, liberal capitalism, light touch regulation, liquidationism / Banker’s doctrine / the Treasury view, liquidity trap, long and variable lags, low interest rates, market clearing, market friction, Martin Wolf, means of production, Meghnad Desai, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, mobile money, Modern Monetary Theory, Money creation, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, mortgage debt, new economy, Nick Leeson, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, nudge theory, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, paradox of thrift, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, Phillips curve, placebo effect, post-war consensus, price stability, profit maximization, proprietary trading, public intellectual, quantitative easing, random walk, regulatory arbitrage, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Thaler, rising living standards, risk/return, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, secular stagnation, shareholder value, short selling, Simon Kuznets, structural adjustment programs, technological determinism, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, tontine, too big to fail, trade liberalization, value at risk, Washington Consensus, yield curve, zero-sum game

Lo (2018). Keynes (1980a), p. 53. James (2002), p. 1. For an excellent survey of what needs to be reconsidered in economics, see Lavoie (2018). Harvey (2015), p. 111. Milner (2009). Nielsen (2012). Frydman and Goldberg (2011). Professor Richard Thaler received a Nobel Prize in economics in 2017 for ‘nudge’ theory. This identifies behaviours which fall short of rational: enrolment in private pension plans is increased when people are given the option to opt out rather than opt in, which is clearly irrational if an objective assessment of the benefits of the plans is available. The behavioural bias towards inertia has long been known and exploited for policy purposes.

Human Diversity: The Biology of Gender, Race, and Class by Charles Murray

23andMe, affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Asperger Syndrome, assortative mating, autism spectrum disorder, basic income, behavioural economics, bioinformatics, Cass Sunstein, correlation coefficient, CRISPR, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark triade / dark tetrad, domesticated silver fox, double helix, Drosophila, emotional labour, epigenetics, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, feminist movement, glass ceiling, Gregor Mendel, Gunnar Myrdal, income inequality, Kenneth Arrow, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, meritocracy, meta-analysis, nudge theory, out of africa, p-value, phenotype, public intellectual, publication bias, quantitative hedge fund, randomized controlled trial, Recombinant DNA, replication crisis, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, school vouchers, Scientific racism, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, Skinner box, social intelligence, Social Justice Warrior, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, twin studies, universal basic income, working-age population

In almost half (18 of the 39), the major topic of the article directly involved sex, ethnicity, or class.[31] Economics and political science. The role of psychological factors in economics goes back to Adam Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments. The work of Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and Paul Slovic on decision making under conditions of uncertainty and, more recently, the work of Cass Sunstein and Richard Thaler on “nudge” theory, are both rich fields of study that will be informed by genomic data.32 They are only part of the growing field of behavioral economics. Similarly, questions about how humans act as political agents are at the core of political science. Genomic information is just as relevant to voting decisions as it is to economic decisions.

Building Secure and Reliable Systems: Best Practices for Designing, Implementing, and Maintaining Systems by Heather Adkins, Betsy Beyer, Paul Blankinship, Ana Oprea, Piotr Lewandowski, Adam Stubblefield

air gap, anti-pattern, barriers to entry, bash_history, behavioural economics, business continuity plan, business logic, business process, Cass Sunstein, cloud computing, cognitive load, continuous integration, correlation does not imply causation, create, read, update, delete, cryptocurrency, cyber-physical system, database schema, Debian, defense in depth, DevOps, Edward Snowden, end-to-end encryption, exponential backoff, fault tolerance, fear of failure, general-purpose programming language, Google Chrome, if you see hoof prints, think horses—not zebras, information security, Internet of things, Kubernetes, load shedding, margin call, microservices, MITM: man-in-the-middle, NSO Group, nudge theory, operational security, performance metric, pull request, ransomware, reproducible builds, revision control, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, self-driving car, single source of truth, Skype, slashdot, software as a service, source of truth, SQL injection, Stuxnet, the long tail, Turing test, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, Valgrind, web application, Y2K, zero day

See Murphy-Hill, Emerson et al. 2019. “Do Developers Learn New Tools on the Toilet?” Proceedings of the 41st International Conference on Software Engineering. https://oreil.ly/ZN18B. 7 This topic is closely related to nudging, a method of changing behavior by subtly encouraging people to do the right thing. Nudge theory was developed by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, who were awarded a Nobel Prize in Economics for their contribution to behavioral economics. For more information, see Thaler, Richard H., and Cass R. Sunstein. 2008. Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. 8 Dave Rensin, Director of Customer Reliability Engineering at Google, considers this topic in greater detail in his talk “Less Risk Through Greater Humanity”. 9 The final report of the Columbia Disaster Investigation Board is preserved on the NASA website for the general public to read.