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One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War by Michael Dobbs
air freight, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doomsday Clock, global village, Google Earth, kremlinology, Marshall McLuhan, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, stakhanovite, yellow journalism
The most sensible approach for the researcher is to find multiple sources, and use documentary evidence to corroborate oral history, and vice versa. The starting point for my archival research was the extensive Cuban missile crisis documentation assembled by the National Security Archive, an indispensable reference source for contemporary historians. The Archive, under the direction of Tom Blanton, has taken the lead in aggressively using the Freedom of Information Act to pry historical documents out of a frequently recalcitrant U.S. bureaucracy. In the case of the Cuban missile crisis, it fought a landmark court battle in 1988 to obtain access to a collection compiled by the State Department historian. In cooperation with academic researchers, the NSA has also helped organize a series of important conferences on the missile crisis, including one in Moscow in 1992 and others in Havana in 1992 and 2002.
Col. Sergei Karlov, official historian, Peter the Great Military Academy of Strategic Rocket Forces (RSVN), May 2006. 28 Military statisticians later estimated: Ibid. 28 "barreled gas oil": NSA Cuban missile crisis release, October 1998. 28 McNamara estimated Soviet troop: JFK2, 606. The CIA had estimated 3,000 Soviet "technicians" in Cuba on September 4. By November 19, they increased the estimate to 12,000–16,000. In January 1963, they concluded retrospectively that there were 22,000 Soviet troops in Cuba at the peak of the crisis. See Raymond L. Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1989), 35. 28 "For the sake of the revolution": Author's interview with Capt. Oleg Dobrochinsky, Moscow, July 2004. 29 citing a "traffic accident": Final report by Maj.
: WP, October 23, 1962, A1; Beschloss, 482. 42 "This is not a war": Fursenko and Naftali, Khrushchev's Cold War, 474. 42 "We've saved Cuba": Oleg Troyanovsky, Cherez Gody y Rastoyaniya (Moscow: Vagrius, 1997), 244–5. 42 The 11,000-ton Yuri Gagarin: I have reconstructed the positions of Soviet ships on October 23 from CIA daily memorandums for October 24 and 25, NSA intercepts, plus research in Moscow by Karlov. See also Statsenko report. 43 Her cargo included:Yesin et al., Strategicheskaya Operatsiya Anadyr', 114. 43 After a sixteen-day voyage: For the positions of the Aleksandrovsk and Almetyevsk, see NSA Cuban missile crisis release, vol. 2, October 1998. 43 In addition to the surface ships: Svetlana Savranskaya, "New Sources on the Role of Soviet Submarines in the Cuban Missile Crisis," Journal of Strategic Studies (April 2005). 44 The vessels closest to Cuba:The ships that continued to Cuba were the Aleksandrovsk, Almetyevsk, Divnogorsk, Dubno, and Nikolaevsk, according to CIA logs and Karlov research. 44 "In connection with": Havana 2002, vol. 2, Document 16, author's trans. 44 "Order the return": Fursenko, Prezidium Ts.
Dereliction of Duty: Johnson, McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam by H. R. McMaster
He surrounded himself with people who “knew a hell of a lot more” than he did about national security issues and learned from them. He was a good student, however, and “by the time of the Cuban missile crisis [his] views were pretty well fixed and [hadn’t] changed to this day.”29 McNamara was proud of what he portrayed as a personal triumph during the Cuban missile crisis. When he turned his attention to Southeast Asia, he exuded confidence that he had gained in the Caribbean. The defense secretary was determined to remove obstacles that might prevent him from assuming the role of chief strategist in the Pentagon. During the Cuban missile crisis, McNamara kept tight control over the ships, submarines, and aircraft enforcing the quarantine around Cuba to ensure that the demonstration of American resolve sent the proper message to the Soviets.
appointments, 2–4, 22, 31, 43 approach to decision-making and administration, 4–5, 6, 15, 21, 23, 39 assassination, 47 Bay of Pigs, 5–7, 8, 11, 16, 22, 23, 24, 25 and Berlin Wall, 23, 31 and Bundy, 3–4, 15–16 Castro, personal antipathy toward, 25 Cuban missile crisis, 24–31 decision to withdraw one thousand advisers from Vietnam, 40 and Department of Defense/Pentagon, 2, 5, 23 and Diem coup, 38–41, 46 election of, 1–2 and the JCS, 5–23, 28, 43, 46 Laotian crisis, 7–8, 22, 23, 32 and LeMay, 43 and McNamara, 2–4, 15, 17–22 military policy, 10–11, 32, 43, 109 and NSC dismantlement, 4–5, 6 personality and style, 15–16 and Rusk, 3–4 and Soviets, 8, 30, 43 speech to West Point graduating class, 1962, 32 and Taylor, 8–17, 21–22, 105, 109 and Vietnam, 22, 23, 32, 37–41, 324 Kennedy, Robert and Castro assassination attempts, 25 and Cuban missile crisis, 26, 28 and Diem ouster, 40–41 and presidential appointments, 3 and Taylor, 208 Khrushchev, Nikita and Cuban missile crisis, 28, 158, 159 and escalation of Vietnam war, 159–60 and Kennedy, 23 and Laos, 8 policy on insurgencies, 31–32 Kohler, Foy, 284 Korean War, 7, 9, 34, 44, 52, 144, 214, 224 Krulak, Victor, 59–60, 96, 101, 172 Lam Van Phant, 164 Lansdale, Edward, 205 Laos, 98.
He wanted to sack LeMay at the same time as Anderson, but McNamara warned that two simultaneous removals would be one too many.31 The desire to control military operations more closely at the civilian level in the OSD and in the White House coincided with advances in communications technology that made possible the detailed monitoring of military activities in faraway theaters. During the Cuban missile crisis, communications equipment established in the White House after the Bay of Pigs incident allowed the president to monitor and control military operations from his desk in the Oval Office.32 The Defense Department installed high-volume communications and data display systems that let the White House Situation Room monitor closely the most technical aspects of military deployments and activities.33 Rather than give the military the mission to enforce the blockade, McNamara and the president orchestrated the specific activities of U.S. ships.34 The Cuban missile crisis was the best known of the Cold War flare-ups that dominated the beginning of the Kennedy administration.
Red November: Inside the Secret U.S.-Soviet Submarine War by W. Craig Reed
Albert Einstein, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, cable laying ship, centre right, cuban missile crisis, en.wikipedia.org, nuclear winter, operation paperclip, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, undersea cable, upwardly mobile
RESOURCES Body of Secrets: Anatomy of the Ultra-Secret National Security Agency, James Bamford, Anchor, April 30, 2002, offered information regarding John Arnold and Cuban SIGINT missions conducted by the USS Nautilus and Oxford, as well as details about the USS Pueblo. Jeffrey G. Barlow, “Some Aspects of the U.S. Navy’s Participation in the Cuban Missile Crisis,” in A New Look at the Cuban Missile Crisis, Colloquium on Contemporary History, June 18, 1992, No. 7, Naval Historical Center, Department of the Navy Command in Crisis: Four Case Studies, Joseph F. Bouchard, Columbia University Press, 1991 The Cuban Missile Crisis, ed. Laurence Chang, National Security Archive, 1992 “The Naval Quarantine of Cuba, 1962,” Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, 1963, http://www.history.navy.mil/faqs/faq90-5.html October Fury, Peter Huchthausen, John Wiley & Sons, 2002 Presidential Recordings: John F.
National Archives “The Cuban Missile Crisis as Seen through a Periscope,” Ryurik A. Ketov, Captain First Rank, Russian Navy (retired), Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 28, no. 2, 217–231, April 2005 “In the Depths of the Sargasso Sea,” A. F. Dubivko, Captain First Rank, Russian Navy (retired; unpublished memoir) “Reflections of Vadim Orlov, We Will Sink Them All, But We Will Not Disgrace Our Navy,” V. P. Orlov, Captain Second Rank, Russian Navy (retired; unpublished memoir) CINCLANT SOSUS contact reports during the Cuban Missile Crisis “Khrushchev, Castro and Kennedy: Motivation, Intention, and the Creation of a Crisis,” Robin R. Pickering, thesis presented to the faculty of Humboldt State University, May 2006 Deck logs obtained for various naval platforms during the Cuban Missile Crisis Eyeball to Eyeball, The Inside Story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Dino A.
Pickering, thesis presented to the faculty of Humboldt State University, May 2006 Deck logs obtained for various naval platforms during the Cuban Missile Crisis Eyeball to Eyeball, The Inside Story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Dino A. Brugioni, Random House, 1991 Soviet Naval Developments, third edition, foreword by Norman Polmar, The Nautical and Aviation Publishing Co. of America, 1984 Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Robert F. Kennedy, W. W. Norton & Co., 1969 Submarines of the Russian and Soviet Navies, 1718–1990, Norman Polmar and Jurrien Noot, Naval Institute Press, 1991 Combat Fleets of the World 1980/81, Jean Labayle Couhat, Naval Institute Press, 1980 U.S. Military Operations Since World War II, Kenneth Anderson, Brompton Books Corporation, 1984 One Hell of a Gamble, The Secret History of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, W. W. Norton & Co., 1997 “Report Heightens Nuclear Sub Mystery/Torpedo Theory Contradicts Findings of USS Scorpion’s Wreckage in 1968,” Stephen Johnson, Houston Chronicle, December 27, 1993 The Reminiscences of Admiral George W.
The Cold War by Robert Cowley
anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, defense in depth, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doomsday Clock, friendly fire, Henry Ford's grandson gave labor union leader Walter Reuther a tour of the company’s new, automated factory…, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, RAND corporation, refrigerator car, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Stanislav Petrov, transcontinental railway
George Feifer (who wrote “The Berlin Tunnel,” anthologized here) was a graduate exchange student in Moscow that fall. Few people there, he once told me, were aware of the Cuban Missile Crisis; the Soviet media had blacked out all mention of it. “But they knew something big was up,” he added, “even if we didn't know precisely what until Khrushchev made a talk at the end, hiding lots of things and twisting others into a Soviet victory. I knew much more than most people, because while the crisis was on, I happened to bump into a friend from the American embassy staff on a busy street. He told me. Still, I knew too little to be scared that I might be killed by an American nuclear bomb at any moment.” The precarious two weeks of the Cuban Missile Crisis came close to overshadowing the emergency in Europe of a year earlier, the erection of the Berlin Wall. But the Wall never caused the same amount of trepidation, certainly not among ordinary people, nor in Washington or Moscow.
Dawn might break over a nation in-finitely poorer than China—less populated than the United States, and condemned to an agrarian existence perhaps for generations to come.” LeMay was eventually made chief of staff of the air force, the position he held during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Privately, he believed that JFK behaved like a coward, that we should have exercised a first-strike option. The Sunday morning after the two Ks cemented their deal, the president summoned his military chiefs to the Cabinet Room to inform them. LeMay pounded the table, his cigar no doubt clenched in his teeth. “It's the greatest defeat in our history, Mr. President…. We should invade today!” For the rest of his life, he remained convinced that we had “lost” the Cuban Missile Crisis—and, indeed, the entire Cold War. VICTOR DAVIS HANSON retired last year as a professor of classics at California State University, Fresno, and is now a fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.
It was set in the near future, in a classroom, and it was about the day the Bomb fell: “There was a large quake and the room seemed to turn upside down. We were thrown from our seats. A large crash shattered the window and threw the pieces into the four corners of the room. Sirens screeched. I had difficulty trying to breathe in the fog that now filled the room. We got to our feet and made our way through the crowded halls to the air raid shelter.” Life, for the narrator, would never be the same. A year after the Cuban Missile Crisis, apocalypse was still on our minds. We were not quite halfway through the Cold War, and the Bomb—Bombs, rather—seemed to be our undeserved future. As I read my wife's story, written in her properly neat schoolgirl script, the memory of the nuclear clock resurfaced, its hands perpetually stuck at one minute to midnight. The Cold War lasted almost half a century—from 1946 until 1991, when the Soviet Union ceased to exist—and occupied the greater part of our lifetime.
Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth by Frederick Kempe
Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, index card, Kitchen Debate, Mikhail Gorbachev, open borders, Ronald Reagan, trade liberalization, traveling salesman, zero-sum game
Furthermore, there was a special intensity about that first crisis. In the words of William Kaufman, a Kennedy administration strategist who worked both Berlin and Cuba from the Pentagon, “Berlin was the worst moment of the Cold War. Although I was deeply involved in the Cuban Missile Crisis, I personally thought that the Berlin confrontation, especially after the wall went up, where you had Soviet and U.S. tanks literally facing one another with guns pointed, was a more dangerous situation. We had very clear indications mid-week of the Cuban Missile Crisis that the Russians were not really going to push us to the edge…. “You didn’t get that sense in Berlin.” Fred Kempe’s contribution to our crucial understanding of that time is that he combines the “You are there” storytelling skills of a journalist, the analytical skills of the political scientist, and the historian’s use of declassified U.S., Soviet, and German documents to provide unique insight into the forces and individuals behind the construction of the Berlin Wall—the iconic barrier that came to symbolize the Cold War’s divisions.
“I don’t know quite what we will discuss at the meeting,” Kennedy said, “because he’ll be back with the same old position on Berlin, probably offering to dismantle the missiles if we’ll neutralize Berlin.” Most surprised of all by Kennedy’s demonstration of strength was Khrushchev himself, who had bet so much against it. General Clay suggested to diplomat William Smyser that the Cuban Missile Crisis never would have occurred had it not been for Khrushchev’s perception of Kennedy’s weakness, and Clay believed as well that the threat to Berlin only receded once Kennedy made it clear he would no longer tolerate Moscow’s bullying. West Berliners celebrated the outcome of the Cuban Missile Crisis more enthusiastically than any others. They concluded that the Soviet threat to them had passed. RATHAUS SCHÖNEBERG, CITY HALL OF WEST BERLIN WEDNESDAY, JUNE 26, 1963 Kennedy would make his first and last presidential trip to Berlin eight months after the Cuban crisis, on June 26, 1963.
The first scene unfolded: http://www.chronik-der-mauer.de/index.php/de/Start/Detail/id/593928/page/5; Berliner Morgenpost, 08/13/2006; Hilton, The Wall, 164–168. At the same time…Soviet ships: Beschloss, Crisis Years, 412–415; Taubman, Khrushchev, 549–551; Fursenko and Naftali, Khrushchev’s Cold War, 451; Raymond L. Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1987, 18–22, 208 (table showing type and numbers of missiles). Fechter’s murder snapped something: “City’s Mood: Anger and Frustration,” New York Times, 08/26/1962. Meanwhile, over Cuba: Anatoli I. Gribkov and William Y. Smith, “Operation Anadyr”: U.S. and Soviet Generals Recount the Cuban Missile Crisis. Chicago: Edition Q, 1994, 5–7, 24, 26–57; Taubman, Khrushchev, 550; Fursenko and Naftali, One Hell of a Gamble, 188–189, 191–193. On August 22, the CIA: FRUS, 1961–1963, vol. X, Cuba, January 1961–September 1962, Doc. 383, Memo from the President’s Special Assistant (Schlesinger) to the President’s Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Bundy), Washington, August 22, 1962, CIA, Office of Current Intelligence (OCI), No. 3047/62, Current Intelligence Memo, August 22, 1962: “Recent Soviet Military Aid to Cuba.”
Who Rules the World? by Noam Chomsky
"Robert Solow", Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, corporate governance, corporate personhood, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Howard Zinn, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, liberation theology, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, nuclear winter, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, one-state solution, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, precariat, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Stanislav Petrov, structural adjustment programs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, trade route, union organizing, uranium enrichment, wage slave, WikiLeaks, working-age population
Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, http://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct27/doc1.html. 19. Jorge I. Domínguez, “The @#$%& Missile Crisis (Or, What Was ‘Cuban’ About U.S. Decisions During the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Diplomatic History 24, no. 5 (Spring 2000): 305–15. 20. Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow, The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis, concise edition (New York: W. W. Norton, 2002), 47. 21. Jon Mitchell, “Okinawa’s First Nuclear Missile Men Break Silence,” Japan Times, 8 July 2012. 22. Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight, 309. 23. Sheldon M. Stern, Averting “The Final Failure”: John F. Kennedy and the Secret Cuban Missile Crisis Meetings (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2003), 273. 24. Piero Gleijeses, Conflicting Missions: Havana, Washington, and Africa, 1959–1976 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2003), 26. 25.
“Most Americans Willing to Re-Establish Ties with Cuba,” Angus Reid Public Opinion Poll, February 2012, https://www.american.edu/clals/upload/2012-02-06_Polling-on-Cuba_USA-1.pdf. 27. Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight, 337. 28. Ibid., 333. 29. Stern, Averting “The Final Failure.” 30. Ibid., 406. 31. Raymond L. Garthoff, “Documenting the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Diplomatic History 24, no. 2 (Spring 2000): 297–303. 32. Papers of John F. Kennedy, Presidential Papers, National Security Files, Meetings and Memoranda, National Security Action Memoranda [NSAM]: NSAM 181, Re: Action to be taken in response to new Bloc activity in Cuba (B), September 1962, JFKNSF-338-009, John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum, Boston, Massachusetts. 33. Garthoff, “Documenting the Cuban Missile Crisis.” 34. Keith Bolender, Voices From the Other Side: An Oral History of Terrorism Against Cuba (London: Pluto Press, 2010). 35. Montague Kern, review of Selling Fear: Counterterrorism, the Media, and Public Opinion by Brigitte L.
., Robert Kennedy and His Times (Boston: Mariner Books, 2002), 480; Noam Chomsky, Hegemony or Survival: America’s Quest for Global Dominance (New York: Henry Holt, 2003), p. 83. 40. Chomsky, Hegemony or Survival, 78–83. 41. Stern, The Week the World Stood Still, 2. 42. Desmond Ball, Politics and Force Levels: The Strategic Missile Program of the Kennedy Administration (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980), 97. 43. Garthoff, “Documenting the Cuban Missile Crisis.” 44. Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight, 342. 45. Allison, “The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50.” 46. Sean M. Lynn-Jones, Steven E. Miller, and Stephen Van Evera, Nuclear Diplomacy and Crisis Management: An International Security Reader (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press 1990), 304. 47. William Burr, ed., “The October War and U.S. Policy,” National Security Archive, published 7 October 2003, http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB98/. 48.
The Cold War: A New History by John Lewis Gaddis
American ideology, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, European colonialism, full employment, land reform, long peace, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Potemkin village, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Sinatra Doctrine
Khrushchev, Khrushchev Remembers, translated and edited by Strobe Talbott (New York: Bantam, 1971), p. 546. 59 Taubman, Khrushchev, p. 537. 60 See the transcripts of conversations between American and Soviet veterans of the crisis in Blight, Allyn, and Welch, Cuba on the Brink; and in James G. Blight and David A. Welch, On the Brink: Americans and Soviets Reexamine the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Hill and Wang, 1989). 61 Kennedy meeting with advisers, October 22, 1962, in Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow, eds., The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House during the Cuban Missile Crisis (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1997), p. 235. 62 Taubman, Khrushchev, p. 552. 63 Blight, Allyn, and Welch, Cuba on the Brink, p. 259. 64 Ibid., p. 203. 65 Gaddis, We Now Know, p. 262; “NRDC Nuclear Notebook: Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945–2002,” p. 104. 66 Blight, Allyn, and Welch, Cuba on the Brink, p. 360. 67 Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy (New York: St.
Jackson-Vanik amendment Japan atomic bombing of and Korea occupation of Jaruzelski, Wojciech Jews Soviet John Paul II, pope attempted assassination of Johnson, Lady Bird Johnson, Lyndon B. Great Society programs of Vietnam War and Johnson administration Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Justice Department, U.S. Kádár, János Kant, Immanuel Katyn Wood massacre Kazakhstan Kennan, George F. “long telegram” of on role of C.I.A. on U.N. Kennedy, John F. Cuban missile crisis and U.S.-Soviet relations and Kennedy, Robert F. Kent State incident K.G.B. Khmer Rouge Khomeini, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khrushchev, Nikita background and personality of Berlin Wall and Cuban missile crisis and East German alliance and Eisenhower’s meetings with Hungarian uprising and nuclear weapons policy of ouster of rise of Sino-Soviet relations and Stalin denounced by Suez crisis and Tito visited by U.S. visited by U-2 incident and “We will bury you” remark of Khrushchev, Sergei Kim Il-sung King, Martin Luther, Jr.
hydrogen bomb decision of nuclear weapons policy of onset of Korean War and Truman Doctrine speech of Truman administration Truman Doctrine Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine Ulbricht, Walter United Nations human rights and Kennan on Korean War and non-intervention principle of veto power in Wilsonian ideas and United States anti-war movement in atomic bomb policy of atomic monopoly of authoritarian regimes and China’s relations with, see Sino-American relations colonialism and Cuban missile crisis and decline of détente and de Gaulle’s relations with elections in, see elections, U.S. Hiss spy case in isolationism of Kent State incident in Khrushchev’s visit to moral standards in foreign policy OF non-aligned countries and origins of World War II and postwar objectives of postwar settlement and Soviet Union contrasted with Soviet Union’s relations with, see United States–Soviet relations in Stalin’s postwar plans in World War II United States–Soviet relations: Angola conflict and Arab-Israeli war of 1973 and arms race and, see nuclear weapons; SALT atomic bomb and “Basic Principles” statement and Berlin blockade and Bush administration’s review of collapse of Soviet Union and Cuban missile crisis and emigration issue and German reunification issue and justice and Kennedy and Khrushchev’s U.S. visit and “long telegram” and Marshall Plan and moral ambivalence in non-aligned nations and occupation of Germany and origins of Cold War and Ostpolitik and postwar Germany policy and postwar settlement and Reagan’s policies and rule of law and Soviet unilateralism and SS-20 missile crisis and U-2 incident and see also capitalism; communism; détente Universal Declaration of Human Rights U-2 incident Uzbekistan Vanik, Charles Versailles Treaty of 1919 Vienna summit of 1961 Vienna summit of 1979 Viet Minh Vietnam, Democratic Republic of (North Vietnam) Vietnam, Republic of (South Vietnam) Diem’s regime in Vietnam War anti-war movement and Cambodia invasion in Johnson’s credibility in Pentagon Papers and Sino-American relations and Tet Offensive in War Powers Act and Vonnegut, Kurt Wałęsa, Lech Wallace, Henry A.
This Is Only a Test: How Washington D.C. Prepared for Nuclear War by David F. Krugler
Berlin Wall, City Beautiful movement, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, Frank Gehry, full employment, glass ceiling, index card, nuclear winter, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, urban planning, Victor Gruen, white flight, Works Progress Administration
Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, “One Hell of a Gamble”: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958–1964 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997), 188–9, 217, 242. Fursenko, One Hell, 188–9 (the quote is on 189); “Chronologies of the Crisis,” compiled for Laurence Chang and Peter Kornbluh, eds., The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962: A National Security Archive Documents Reader (New York: The New Press, 1992), accessed June 23, 2005 at the National Security Archive http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nsa/cuba_mis_cri/chron.htm.. 22. “Chronologies of the Crisis”; Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow, eds., The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House during the Cuban Missile Crisis (Cambridge, Mass.: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1997), 45–76, 189–203. Furensko, One Hell, 242–3; “Chronologies of the Crisis”; “Radio and Television Report to the American People,” October 22, 1962, PPP: John F.
., 115, 139–41, 173 Rodericks, George, 172, 175, 178, 184 Roosevelt, Eleanor, 13–14 Roosevelt, Franklin civil defense and, 13–14 death of, 16 Pentagon and, 17–18, 67 White House and, 15, 70–1 Schwartz, Max, 52, 54, 87 shelters see fallout shelters Sherry, Michael, 90 Silvers, Hal, 131, 133–4 Site R, 64–5, 67–8, 95, 126–7, 132, 158, 162, 165–6, 180, 183, 185–6 see also Raven Rock Mountain Smith, Howard, 62–3 Social Science Research Council, 22, 89 Soviet Union aircraft of, 1, 5, 10, 82, 87, 90, 111, 113, 116, 132 Cold War and, 18–20, 48, 59 Cuban Missile Crisis and, 174–9 deterrence of, 91–2, 98 espionage of, 6, 18, 104 nuclear weapons of, 1, 10, 131–2, 136, 142, 169, 182, 235 n.44 propaganda of, 25, 85, 87 striking capability of, 10, 108, 116, 120–1, 158–60, 166 test of atomic bomb, 32, 35–6, 41, 64, 171 test of hydrogen bomb, 75, 99–100 War Scare of 1948 and, 23–5 see also Washington, D.C., imagined attacks on Spencer, Samuel, 121, 132 Springfield, Va., 34 Stalin, Joseph, 6, 18 State Department Cuban Missile Crisis and, 177, 180–1 offices in Washington, D.C., 17, 21, 50, 61, 101, 144 participation in exercises, 109, 121, 127–8, 161 relocation site of, 93–6, 109, 121, 128, 155, 165–6, 180, 183 Steelman, John, 32 Stein, Clarence, 28, 60, 147 Stewart Air Force Base, 112, 150 Stowe, David, 49–50, 75, 96 Strategic Air Command (SAC), 111, 114, 179 Strauss, Lewis, 102, 133 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) see ballistic missiles Suitland, Md., 34 Supreme Court continuity of, 7, 168, 177–8 during Cuban Missile Crisis, 177–8, 181 participation in exercises, 129 rulings on racial segregation, 145–6 Symington, Stuart, 55–7, 59, 91, 171 Takoma Park, Md., 48, 122 Teague, Olin, 122–3 ‘tempos’ on National Mall, 17, 21, 26, 31, 38–9, 43, 50–1, 61–2, 103–4 proposed construction of, 34–6 Treasury Department continuity of, 106, 180 participation in exercises, 81, 109, 117, 127–8, 161 relocation sites of, 183 tunnel to White House, 69, 73 Truman, Harry S. authorization of Conelrad, 112 authorization of development of hydrogen bomb, 6 continuity of government planning of, 5, 64, 75, 96, 105 Doctrine of, 23, 171 end of World War II and, 16–18 Korean War and, 48–9, 59 reaction to Soviet atomic test, 35, 171 reelection of, 31 support for civil defense, 23–4, 46, 55–6, 81, 86, 90–2, 170 support for desegregation of Washington, D.C., 3, 145 support for dispersal, 4, 49–52, 59, 61–3, 104 treatment of NSRB, 25, 31–2 use of the Bureau of the Budget, 37 White House renovation and, 69–71, 73–4 Tuve, Dr.
., 95–6, 183 War Scare of 1948, 24–6 wartime essential agencies defined, 4–5, 196 n.16 dispersal of, 30, 38, 40–1, 101–2, 147 participation in exercises, 108–9, 121, 124–9, 156–63, 160, 182 responsibilities of, 105–6, 164, 186 vulnerability of, 105 wartime essential personnel advance evacuation of, 113–14, 120, 124, 155, 163, 177–8, 181 cadres of at Mount Weather, 7, 106, 159, 163, 165, 176 during Cuban Missile Crisis, 176, 178–9 expected actions during crisis, 115, 129, 134, 162–3, 181–2 Washington Area Survival Plan committee (WASP), 132, 135, 138, 141 Washington and Lee University, 15, 95, 157, 165 Washington Board of Trade, 46, 81 Washington, D.C. on 9/11, 185–7 Alert America in, 77–80 attack warning system of, 14, 111–15, 150–5 civil defense in see under D.C. Office of Civil Defense civil defense during World War II, 14–16 during Cuban Missile Crisis, 175–6 difficulty of evacuating, 109, 115, 121–4, 132–5 effects of World War II on, 11–12, 14, 16–17 exercises staged in, 116–17, 119–21, 124–30 government of, 3, 45–6 ground observer posts in, 82–5, 138–9 imagined attacks on, 1–2, 23, 36, 47, 67, 111–14, 117, 136, 158–60, 179–81 see also Operation Alert lack of home rule, 3, 93 national security state in, 21 planning for civil defense office in, 45–7 population of, 12, 26, 122, 145 present–day emergency plans of, 187–9 segregation of, 2–3, 14–15, 54, 84, 145–7 slavery in, 3 symbolic importance of, 3–4, 8, 49, 122–3, 135 UFO scare in, 85–6 see also dispersal, plans for metropolitan Washington, D.C.
Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism From Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda by John Mueller
airport security, Albert Einstein, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Doomsday Clock, energy security, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, long peace, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, oil shock, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, side project, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, Yom Kippur War
., nuclear metaphysics, 63–64, 68, 97, 255n.22 Kahn, Herman, 57, 73–74, 92 kamikaze, Japanese, 249n.5 Kaplan, Fred, 64 Kaplan, Lawrence, 261n.4 Kay, David, nuclear arms, 103, 155–156, 157 Kazakhstan, 110, 122–124, 138 Kean, Governor Thomas, worries, xi Keller, Bill, worries, xi, 162–163, 179 Kennedy, President John F., 81 Chinese nuclear test, 96 Cuban missile crisis, 40, 248n.33 missile trade, 248n.33 proliferation problem, 90, 93, 94, 98 test ban treaty, 76 UN as only true alternative to war, 75 war and mankind, 25 Kenney, Michael, Islamic militants, 223 Kerry, John, nuclear weapon worry, 163 Khan, A. Q. bin Laden’s interest in, network, 213 intelligence agencies closing operation, 164–165 selling secrets, 169–170, 207 Khattab, Ibn, connection to bin Laden, 202–203 Khrushchev, Nikita Britain and France reversing invasion at Suez, 249n.12 Cuban missile crisis, 39–40 struggle against capitalism, 34–35 supporting Shevchenko, 248n.31 world war, 33 Korean War, 38, 47–48, 50 Kornienko, Georgy, world war and Soviets, 33 Kosko, Bart, government overestimating threat, 220 Kramer, Stanley, On the Beach, 57 Krauthammer, Charles, Arab world, 261n.1, 261n.4 Kremlin, 246n.15, 247n.22 Kristof, Nicholas, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, 181 Kristol, William, 261n.4 Langewiesche, William Atomic Bazaar, 183, 268n.5 book jacket flap, 268n.5 constructing bomb, 111, 173 obtaining nuclear weapons, 105 odds against terrorists, 184 passed “point of no return,” 93 Lapp, Ralph, A-bombs, 242n.19 Laqueur, Walter, proliferation of WMD, 228 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 266–267n.43 leadership, nuclear weapons programs, 113 Lenin, Vladimir, 34 Levi, Michael, 165, 171, 175, 184, 187, 189, 213, 264n.6 Lewis, Jeffrey, 178, 191 Libya, 124–126, 145, 258n.31 likelihood acceptable risk, 197–198 acquisition scenarios, 190–191 arraying barriers, 184, 186 assessing, 186–191 assigning and calculating probabilities, 187–189 comparisons of improbable events, 191–193 multiple attempts, 189–190 policy for reducing, 193–197 probability of nuclear fission bomb, 267n.48 terrorist bomb, 183, 238 World at Risk, 182 Lockerbie bombing, 125, 258n.32 London, image of destruction, 24 longer-term effects, nuclear attack, 8 The Looming Tower, Wright, 201 “loose nukes,”165–168, 208–210, 238 Los Alamos National Laboratory, 267n.48 Los Alamos scientists bomb design, 173–174 difficulties of making nuclear weapons, 174–175 sensitive detection equipment, 176 Los Angeles, port security, 141 Los Angeles International Airport, 19 lottery tickets, terrorism comparison, 191 Lugar, Senator Richard, 20, 171, 181, 194 McCain, Senator John, 130–131, 230 McCarthyism, Communist menace, 49 McCone, CIA Director John, Chinese threat, 91, 96 McNamara, Robert, 66–67, 68, 248n.33 McNaugher, Thomas, missiles, 116 McPhee, John, sense of urgency, 162 Mahmood, Sultan Bachiruddin, 203–205, 271n.16 Majid, Abdul, Pakistani nuclear scientist, 203–204 marijuana bale, smuggling atomic device, 177 Martin, Susan, 232 measured ambiguity, catchphrase, 86 melancholy thought, Winston Churchill, 35 Middle East, 225, 261n.4 Milhollin, Gary, 174, 175 military, Canada, 106 military attacks, appeal of nuclear weapons, 147 military planning, nuclear weapons, 14–15 military strategy, stabilizing or destabilizing, 66 military value, nuclear weapons, 108–110, 236, 237–238 Mir, Hamid, 164, 210–211, 264n.7 credibility of, 273n.36 missile capacity, 153, 154 missile crisis, Cuba, 40 The Missiles of October, Cuba, 40 Mohammed, Khalid Sheikh, 9/11 attack, 206 morality, Canada without weapons, 112–113 Morison, Samuel Eliot, 269n.23 Morrison, Phillip, chance for working peace, 26 Mowatt–Larssen, Rolf, xi, 20 Mueller, Robert, xi, 228, 274n.16, 276n.37 Mukhatzhanova, Gaukhar, points of no return, 94–95 Muller, Richard, 146, 172, 192 multiple groups, likelihood, 189–190 Musharraf, General Pervez, criticism, 260n.24 Muslim extremists, publications of violence, 223 mustard gas, calculation for causalties, 12 mutual assured destruction (MAD), deterrence, 64 Myers, General Richard, 20, 22 Naftali, Timothy, 76, 249n.12, 263n.29 Nagasaki atomic bomb, 9–10 human costs, 141 military value of atomic bomb, 10 surrender of Japanese, 43 taboo of nuclear weapons, 61–63 napalm, 243n.30 National Intelligence Estimate (1958), 119 National Intelligence Estimate (2007), 274n.16 National Planning Association, diffusion, 104 national security threat, terrorism and U.S., 233 NATO missiles, European demonstrations, 60 “naughty child” effect, Russia, 108 neglect, cold war, 86 Negroponte, John, probability of attack, 181 nerve gas, calculation for causalties, 12 Netanyahu, Benjamin, 264n.33 Neufeld, Michael, missiles, 116 neutron bomb, 4, 14, 81 New Jersey Lottery, 270n.6 Nimitz, Admiral Chester W., 269n.23 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), nuclear, 119–121 North Korea American-led forced invading, 247n.27 attention, 108, 238 axis of evil, 144 calm policy discussion, 151, 152–153 deterrence, 262n.19 “eating problem,” 152 hysteria, 263n.25 invasion of South Korea, 49 nuclear weapon, x proliferation, 93 proliferation fixation, 135–137 sanctions, 136, 145 “supreme priority” of, 149–150 Nth country problem, nuclear weapons, 91 nuclear age, verge of new, x nuclear arsenals, 64–65, 145, 237 nuclear bomb, 17, 269n.16 “The Nuclear Bomb of Islam,” bin Laden, 211–212 nuclear crisis, Cuba, 39 nuclear diffusion, 237 nuclear energy, security, 139–140 “nuclear era,” Hiroshima, ix nuclear explosion, 61–62, 181, 243n.9 nuclear fears classic cold war, 56–57 declining again, 60–61 On the Beach, 57 reviving in early 1980s, 58–60 subsiding in 1960s and 1970s, 57–58 nuclear fission bomb, probability of attack, 267n.48 nuclear forensics, 155, 164, 190, 194, 264n.6 nuclear fuel, cartelization, 260n.28 nuclear metaphysics, deterrence, 63–67 nuclear proliferation, xiii, 89 nuclear radiation, dirty bomb, 18 nuclear reactor meltdown, Chernobyl, 7 Nuclear Regulatory Agency, radiation, 7 The Nuclear Revolution, Mandelbaum, 246n.7 nuclear sting operation, 194 Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, Kristof, 181 nuclear tipping point, Brookings Institution, 93–94 nuclear virginity, Canada, 112 nuclear war, x, 64 nuclear weapons.
He had been greatly impressed by Barbara Tuchman’s The Guns of August and concluded that in 1914 the Europeans “somehow seemed to tumble into war … through stupidity, individual idiosyncrasies, misunderstandings, and personal complexes of inferiority and grandeur.” He had no intention, he made clear, of becoming a central character in a “comparable book about this time, The Missiles of October.”33 Of course the Cuban missile crisis would not have happened, at least in the same way, had there been no nuclear weapons for the Soviets to deploy to the island. The point here, however, is that even with the image of nuclear war staring at them, Kennedy and Khrushchev were referencing horrors remembered from prenuclear wars to warrant their intense concern about escalation. STABILITY OVERDETERMINED The postwar situation contained (and continues to contain) redundant sources of stability.
Snow was publishing his alarmist broadside proclaiming it to be a “certainty” that, if the nuclear arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union were to continue and accelerate, a nuclear bomb would go off “within, at the most, ten years.”4 Nuclear Fear Subsides: The 1960s and 1970s None did, as it happened. Indeed, within, at the most, four years after Snow’s urgent pronouncement, anxiety about nuclear cataclysm began to subside. In the aftermath of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the United States and the Soviet Union signed some arms control agreements and, although these agreements did not reduce either side’s nuclear capacity in the slightest, the generally improved diplomatic atmosphere engendered a considerable relaxation in fear that they would actually use their weapons against each other. Accordingly, whereas over 400 articles per year on nuclear-related topics are listed in the Readers’ Guide to Periodical Literature for 1961, 1962, and 1963, output dropped to less than 200 in 1964 and to about 120 in 1967.
Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion ofSafety by Eric Schlosser
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Haight Ashbury, impulse control, interchangeable parts, Isaac Newton, life extension, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Stanislav Petrov, Stewart Brand, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche
: Quoted in Fursenko and Naftali, Khrushchev’s Cold War, p. 442. “To get the population used to the idea”: Ibid. If Khrushchev’s scheme worked: Dozens of books have been written about the Cuban missile crisis. I found these to be the most interesting and compelling: Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, “One Hell of a Gamble”: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958–1964 (New York: W. W. Norton, 1997); Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Longman, 1999); Ernest R. May and Philip D. Zelikow, The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: W. W. Norton, 2002); Max Frankel, High Noon in the Cold War: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Cold War (New York: Ballantine Books, 2005); and Michael Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War (New York: Knopf, 2008).
The new system eliminated the timer, allowed missiles to be launched individually, and prevented minor power surges from causing an accidental launch. Minuteman missiles became operational for the first time during the Cuban Missile Crisis. To err on the side of safety, the explosive bolts were removed from their silo doors. If one of the missiles were launched by accident, it would explode inside the silo. And if President Kennedy decided to launch one, some poor enlisted man would have to kneel over the silo door, reconnect the explosive bolts by hand, and leave the area in a hurry. • • • WHILE THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE publicly dismissed fears of an accidental nuclear war, the Cuban Missile Crisis left McNamara more concerned than ever about the danger. At a national security meeting a few months after the crisis, he opposed allowing anyone other than the president of the United States to authorize the use of nuclear weapons.
Sagan applied “normal accident” theory to the workings of the American command-and-control system during the Cuban Missile Crisis. According to Sagan, now a professor of political science at Stanford University, the crisis was the most severe test of that system during the Cold War, “the highest state of readiness for nuclear war that U.S. military forces have ever attained and the longest period of time (thirty days) that they have maintained an alert.” Most historians attributed the peaceful resolution of the crisis to decisions made by John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev—to the rational behavior of leaders controlling their military forces. But that sense of control may have been illusory, Sagan argued in The Limits of Safety, and the Cuban Missile Crisis could have ended with a nuclear war, despite the wishes of Khrushchev and Kennedy.
Bomb Scare by Joseph Cirincione
Albert Einstein, cuban missile crisis, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, energy security, Ernest Rutherford, Mahatma Gandhi, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, Ronald Reagan, uranium enrichment, Yogi Berra
As president, Kennedy kept his promises and worked forcefully for ways to reduce the nuclear threats. He created the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency to pursue his vision and to provide some balance in national policy discussions. If he had any doubts about the urgency of reducing nuclear dangers, these were dispelled by the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The discovery that the Soviet Union had placed missiles in Cuba capable of hitting the United States set off a diplomatic and military confrontation that terrified the world. Former Kennedy speech writer Arthur Schlesinger Jr. recalled the crisis in 2006: The Cuban missile crisis was not only the most dangerous moment of the Cold War. It was the most dangerous moment in all human history. Never before had two contending powers possessed between them the technical capacity to destroy the planet. Had there been exponents of preventive war in the White House, there probably would have been nuclear war.16 Only decades later, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the opportunity for the participants in the crisis to sit down and discuss these events, did previously secret and terrifying information come to light.
chemical weapons Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) Cheney, Richard China: and India, and Japan, and national security model, and nuclear arms race, nuclear arsenal extent, and regional tensions, U.S. policies Chirac, Jacques Christopher, Warren Churchill, Winston civilian nuclear stockpiles Clinton, Bill: and domestic political model, and nonproliferation regime, and Ukraine Cohen, Avner Cold War: and Atoms for Peace program, Cuban Missile Crisis, and Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombing, and nuclear risk, and regional tensions. See also nuclear arms race; U.S. nuclear guarantees Committee on Assurances of Supply Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) Compton, Arthur Conan, Neal Conant, James Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) core counter-proliferation. See also Bush administration policies Coyle, Philip critical mass cruise missiles CTBT (Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty) CTR (Cooperative Threat Reduction) Cuban Missile Crisis cultural responses: Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombing, nuclear arms race CWC (Chemical Weapons Convention) Czech Republic Davis, Zachary Davy Crockett de Gaulle, Charles DeGroot, Gerard Democritus deterrence.
From 1951 to 2000, only some twenty million people suffered that same fate.2 “Well-managed proliferation,” some say, with perhaps double the number of today’s nuclear-armed states, would extend the benefits of nuclear deterrence to many areas of the world, helping to keep the peace in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere.3 The pessimists disagree. They believe that “we lucked out” during the Cold War, when the two nuclear superpowers stood “eyeball to eyeball,” in former secretary of state Dean Rusk’s famous description of the Cuban Missile Crisis.4 The spread of nuclear weapons, they argue, reduces real security. States are not always rational actors, for example. State leaders may act irrationally and initiate a nuclear strike. Nor are states monolithic. Substate actors with their own agendas, such as military commanders, may ignore orders and trigger a nuclear attack. Even with stable governments, they argue, the risk of an accidental launch is great because of technical failure, breakdown of command and control, bad intelligence, or false assumptions.
1983: Reagan, Andropov, and a World on the Brink by Taylor Downing
active measures, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, kremlinology, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear paranoia, nuclear winter, RAND corporation, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Stanislav Petrov, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, Yom Kippur War
Index Page numbers in italics refer to illustrations Able Archer 83 exercise 222–56, 344 intelligence failures 256, 257–61, 263 NATO code changes 231, 240, 251 political leaders, participation of 231–2 scenario 224–5 Soviet monitoring of 227, 231, 232–3 Soviet perception as threat 224, 227–9, 232–3, 239, 240, 242, 250–1, 254, 256, 258–61 advanced warning aircraft (AWACs) 138–9 Afghanistan Mujahideen 76, 77, 110, 310, 323 Soviet invasion and occupation of 30, 76–7, 94 Soviet withdrawal from 323 US covert programmes in 77, 110, 310, 323 US military incursions 342 US trade sanctions and 30, 76, 179 Air Force One 232, 261 aircraft carriers 54 airspace violations Soviet ‘shoot-to-kill’ policy 143, 158, 179, 187 US aircraft 142–3, 157, 162, 187 see also Korean Air Lines (KAL) Flight 007 al-Assad, Hafez 204 al-Qaeda 77 Allen, Richard 20, 32 Allied Command Europe (ACE) 222 Ames, Aldrich 277–9, 282, 283, 284, 286, 292, 299, 334, 335, 337 Anchorage 149–51, 158 Anderson, Martin 91, 92, 93, 98 Andrew, Christopher 338 Andropov, Yuri 36, 37–40, 41–2, 45–8, 49–50, 241 and the Able Archer 83 exercise 242, 250, 255 background of 39, 40, 41 CIA profile of 106 domestic reforms 87–8 and the downing of KAL 007 179–80, 186–7, 216 elected as Soviet head of state 35 and Gorbachev 50, 87, 215, 236 head of KGB 35, 45, 46–7, 48, 69, 74, 80, 83, 106, 341 ‘Hungarian complex’ 44, 47 and the Hungarian Revolution 43–4 illness and death 180, 213–16, 219–21, 234–6, 263 and the invasion of Afghanistan 76 meets with Averell Harriman 146–8 nuclear paranoia 80, 87, 147, 148, 201, 216–17, 237, 240 and Operation RYaN 83, 87, 88, 216 response to ‘evil empire’ rhetoric 89, 105 on SDI 104, 105, 147 ‘shoot-to-kill’ order 143, 158, 187 suspicion and fear of the West 47, 49, 80, 87, 88 Androsov, Stanislav 277 Angola 29, 70, 101 Annan, Kofi 200 anti-ballistic missiles (ABMs) 12, 13 anti-ballistic missiles (ABM) Treaty 92, 313, 314 Apollo spacecraft 14 Arafat, Yasser 203, 264 Arbatov, Georgy 147 Arlov, Yuri 49 Armenia 333 arms control Gorbachev’s views on 299, 304, 306, 309, 311, 312–13, 314–15, 318, 324 Reagan’s views on 304, 306, 314–15 zero-zero option 94–5, 315, 316, 318, 321–2 arms control talks and agreements anti-ballistic missiles (ABM) Treaty 92, 313, 314 Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty 320, 321–2, 333 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 13 Partial Test Ban Treaty 13 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I) 13, 14, 94, 156 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT II) 30, 77 Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) 94, 105, 270, 334 Armstrong, Anne 349 Arzamus-16 6 Atlantic Lion 83 exercise 223 Atlas missiles 12–13 atom bomb 1–6, 93 Autumn Forge 83 exercises 223, 224 Azerbaijan 333 B-29 bomber 2, 4, 5 B-47 bomber 190 B-52 bomber 8–9, 52–3, 138, 190–1, 192 B1-B Bomber 52 Baker, James 32, 57, 327, 330 Balashika training camp 109, 204 Barents Sea 126, 127, 140 Begin, Menachem 203, 205–6 Beirut airport suicide bomber 208–9 Israeli bombardment of 205–7, 228 US embassy bomb 208 Belarus 333, 334 Benghazi 310 Beria, Lavrenti 5, 6 Berlin, Reagan’s visit to 320–1 Berlin Wall 45, 321 fall of 330–1, 331, 341 Bikini Atoll 7–8 Billion Dollar Spy see Tolkachev, Adolf bin Laden, Osama 77 Bishop, Maurice 210 ‘The Black Book’ 241 Black Program 54 Blanton, Tom 348 Bowen, Ann 129–30, 131, 134 Brady, James 56, 57 Brady, Nicholas 208 Brandt, Willy 135 Brezhnev, Leonid 37, 38, 45, 50, 72, 86, 264 death and funeral of 34, 35, 37, 87 failing health 71, 219 foreign policy 70 and the invasion of Afghanistan 76 meets Carter 297 nuclear policy 70–1 relations with Reagan 59 signs Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I) 13 war games, participation in 68 Britain and Able Archer 83 exercise 231, 232 Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament 95, 123–4 Falklands War 118, 210 Gorbachev’s visit to 271–4 London KGB residency 81, 118–20, 122, 218, 228, 279 nuclear capability 13 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 13 peace movement 95–6 Trident nuclear missile system 319 British Commonwealth 210, 211, 259 British Labour Party 122–3 Brown, Pat 27 Brown, Ron 123 Browne, John 293 Brzezinski, Zbigniew 189–90 Budanov, Colonel 280 Budapest 43, 44 Bulgaria 332 intelligence services 85 Burr, William 348 Burt, Richard 171 Bush, George H.W. 37, 38, 262, 264, 327–8 election of 327 meets with Andropov 38 meets with Gorbachev 332 signs START 1 334 as vice-president 31 Bush, George W. 256, 342 ‘the button’ 15, 16, 241 Cable News Network (CNN) 183 Callender, Colonel Spike 226, 256 Cambodia 29, 301 Canadian Navy 137 Carstens, Karl 37 Carter, Jimmy 28, 114, 189, 298 and the invasion of Afghanistan 30, 76–7 meets Brezhnev 297 Tehran embassy hostage crisis 20, 29 Casey, William 58, 108, 110, 144, 169, 178, 185–6, 299–300, 320, 337 and Abel Archer exercise 263 assessment of Gorbachev 295 death of 347 head of CIA 107–8, 109 opposes Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty 320 Ceauşescu, Elena 332 Ceauşescu, Nicolae 332 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) 6, 38, 106–12, 277 and the Able Archer 83 exercise 256, 257, 258 aggressive and proactive policy 107–8, 144 assessment of Gorbachev 294–5 bureaucracy 109 covert aid to anti-communist and resistance movements 110 directorates 109–10 and the downing of KAL 007 172, 174, 178–9 and the Farewell dossier 143–4 and the Geneva summit 301 Intelligence Directorate 109–12 intelligence misjudgements and failures 106, 111–12, 257–61, 278–9, 339–40 mole within see Ames, Aldrich Operations Directorate 110 report on events of 1983 339–40 Soviet agents 49, 283–4, 285–6 on Soviet paranoia 80 technological sabotage 144–5 Centre for Documentation 129 Chancellor, Henry 346 Chazov, Dr Yevgeny 215, 234 Chebrikov, Viktor 279 ‘cheggets’ system 241, 250 Cheney, Richard 327 Cherkashin, Viktor 285 Chernenko, Konstantin 34, 35, 181, 215, 220, 268, 270 elected Soviet head of state 264 ill health and death 275, 293 Chernobyl nuclear disaster (1986) 310–11 Chernyaev, Anatoly 311, 312, 319 China economic reforms 330 nuclear capability 13 Sino–Soviet relations 44, 45, 220, 330 Tiananmen Square massacre 330 Christian churches’ response to nuclear strategy 66, 96 Chun Byung-in, Captain 150, 151, 153–5 Churchill, Winston 24, 146 civil defence Soviet 30, 237 Western 82 Clark, William 98, 99 Clinton, Hillary 342 Cobra Ball missions 156, 162, 170, 173, 178–9 Cold War 1983 war scare see nuclear war scare Cuban missile crisis (1962) 11, 45, 114, 192, 193, 204, 230, 344 DEFCON levels 230 détente 14, 29, 52, 70, 71, 75, 94 end of 332, 344 false alerts 189–201, 239 Israeli-Palestinian conflict 202–9 Korean Air Lines (KAL) Flight 007 incident 149–56, 157–88 ‘proxy’ engagements through client states 205 stalemate 92 Cole, John 274 Command Post Exercise 222 see also Able Archer 83 exercise Committee on the Present Danger (CPD) 29, 30, 32, 49, 51 Commonwealth of Independent States 333 Congress of People’s Deputies 329 Contras 110, 319–20 Counterforce 10 Crimea 341 Cruise missiles 53, 78, 88, 94, 95, 123, 135, 216, 220, 258, 270, 299, 309, 321 Cuban missile crisis (1962) 11, 45, 114, 192, 204, 230, 344 Black Saturday 193 cyber attacks 342 Czechoslovakia 42, 238, 248 intelligence services 85 Prague Spring 47 Soviet invasion of 120–1 Velvet Revolution 332 The Day After (film) 261 ‘dead drops’ 285 Deaver, Michael 32 Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) 172, 179 Defense Readiness Condition (DEFCON) 204, 230 détente 14, 29, 52, 70, 71, 94 end of 75 deterrence 92, 96, 101, 216 Devetyarov, Colonel Maxim 247 Dobrynin, Anatoly 114–16, 117, 146, 148, 180–1 Donovan, William 107 ‘Doomsday Plane’ see National Emergency Airborne Command Post (Boeing 747) double agents 118–35 Hanssen, Robert 284–5 ideological commitment 120–1, 278 Martynov, Valery 285–6 Vetrov, Captain Vladimir 143 see also Ames, Aldrich; Gordievsky, Oleg ‘dry-cleaning’ 286, 287, 289 Dubček, Alexander 47 Dukakis, Michael 327 Dulles, John Foster 8 Duluth air base 192, 193 Eagleburger, Lawrence 171, 174, 260, 262 East Germany 14, 42, 238, 247, 248, 329 collapse of 330–1, 335 foreign intelligence service see HVA Stasi 85, 128, 130, 133, 335 Egypt 202, 343 Eisenhower, Dwight D. 8, 10, 43 El Salvador 70 Eniwetok 7 espionage KGB foreign residencies 46, 81, 118–20, 122–5, 218, 227, 228, 277, 278, 279 listening stations 163–4, 168, 170, 176, 183, 217, 227, 231, 267–8 observation satellites 90, 111, 194–5, 196, 248, 256 post-Cold War 334 RC-135 spy planes 140–1, 156–7, 170, 178, 182 technological sabotage 144–5 see also Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); double agents; HVA; KGB Estonia 329 Ethiopia 70, 101 European Community 129 ‘evil empire’ rhetoric 66–7, 89, 117, 176, 182, 216, 324 F-15 fighter 205 F-16 fighter 138, 205 F-117 Nighthawk 54 F/A-18 Hornet jet 53 Falklands War 118, 210 false alerts 189–201, 239 Farewell dossier 143–4 FBI 127 mole within 284–5 and Red Scares 24 Filatov, Anatoly 49 Finland 291 Winter War 40 ‘First Lightning’ atomic test 5 Fischer, Ben 340, 344, 345–6 ‘Flash’ telegrams 251 FleetEx 83 exercises 137, 138–9, 158 Ford, Gerald 14, 28 Foster, Jodie 58 France intelligence service 143 nuclear capability 13 Friedman, Milton 31 Gaddafi, Muammar 110, 310 Gates, Robert 219, 237, 256, 339, 340, 347 on Kremlin paranoia 112 on SDI 117 Gay, Eugene 226–7 Gemayel, Bashir 206 General Electric (GE) 26 Geneva summit (1985) 297–9, 300–9 boathouse meeting 301, 305 joint communiqué 306, 308 Georgia 329, 341 glasnost 311, 325 Gold Codes 241 Goldwater, Barry 26 Golubev, General 280 Gomulka, Wladyslaw 42, 43 Gorbachev, Mikhail 50, 215, 220, 236, 270–1, 344 and Afghanistan withdrawal 323 arms control and 299, 304, 306, 309, 311, 312–13, 314–15, 318, 324 Casey’s appraisal of 295 Chernobyl and 310–11 CIA assessments of 294–5 and dismantling of the Soviet Union 329, 333 elected Soviet head of state 275–6, 293–4 failed coup against 333 ‘freedom of choice’ proposal 328 Geneva summit 297–9, 300–7, 305 and Gordievsky 338 hostility to SDI 273, 298, 299, 304, 305, 306, 309, 313, 314, 315, 316, 319 and human rights issues 306, 314, 322 meets with Bush 332 nuclear weapons elimination proposal 309, 313 ‘peace offensive’ 309, 310 perestroika and glasnost 311, 325, 329 political decline 333 political reforms 311–12, 329 popularity abroad 323 on Reagan 294, 304, 309, 319 reduction of Soviet forces in Europe 328, 333–4 Reykjavik summit 311, 312–18, 317 signs INF Treaty 321 signs START 1 334 visits Britain 271–4, 274 visits China 330 Washington summit 321–3 Gorbachev, Raisa 272, 276, 293, 306, 323 Gordievsky, Leila 118, 282, 338 Gordievsky, Oleg 118–19, 120–5, 127, 259, 260, 270, 284, 336–9 Companion of the Order of St Michael and St George 339 debriefing 336–7 exfiltration 286–92 and Gorbachev’s visit to Britain 271 ideological commitments 120–1 KGB interrogation 279–82 meets Reagan 337, 337 MI6 operative 121–2, 123, 125, 126, 127, 218, 279, 281 and Operation RYaN 84–5, 118, 251 sentenced to death in absentia 339 Gorshikov, Admiral Georgi 245 Great Society reforms 26–7 Great Terror 36, 39–40 Greenham Common peace camp 95 Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap (GIUK Gap) 140 Grenada 210 US invasion of 210–12, 217 Grishin, Viktor 270, 275 Gromyko, Andrei 38, 72, 79, 179, 185, 215, 240, 260, 270, 275, 276–7 and the downing of KAL 007 185 head of Supreme Soviet 275, 297 meets with Shultz 296 GRU and the Able Archer 83 exercise 245, 251 foreign residencies 119 Operation RYaN 80, 81–5, 251 Grushko, Viktor 280, 281 Guk, Arkady 119–20, 124, 125 H-bomb (hydrogen bomb) 6–7 Haavik, Gunvor Galtung 126 Habib, Philip 205, 206 Haig, Alexander 32, 57, 94, 108–9, 115 Hanssen, Robert 284–5, 286, 292, 334 Harriman, Averell 146–8 Hartman, Arthur 263 Havel, Václav 332 Helms, Jesse 149 Helsinki Accords 14, 29, 48 Helsinki Monitoring Group 48–9 Heseltine, Michael 95–6, 231, 272 Hezbollah 209, 217, 232 Hill, General James 91 Hinckley, John Jr 58 Hirohito, Emperor 4 Hiroshima, bombing of (1945) 1–4, 93 Hirshberg, Jim 348 Hitler, Adolf 36, 40 Hollywood Ten 24 Honecker, Erich 329, 330 Hoover, J.
Finally, as it was American policy not to launch nuclear weapons in a first strike, a system had to be devised by which the United States had sufficient nuclear capability held back so that it could survive a pre-emptive attack and still be able to retaliate. All of this was contained within Kennedy’s new Single Integrated Operational Plan. The new SIOP had only just come in when the scariest confrontation of the Cold War to date came with the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962. When the US discovered that Khrushchev was siting missiles in Fidel Castro’s Cuba only a few miles from the Florida coast, it was clear that much of the US mainland would soon be within range of Soviet nuclear weapons. The military wanted to bomb the missile sites before they were finished but Kennedy insisted on restraint and launched a naval blockade of Cuba instead. For two weeks the tension was intense as each side tried to stare the other out.
With all these weapons capable of transporting nuclear warheads, missiles could now be located across continents and in submarines nestling invisibly on the floors of oceans. In addition new radar systems were created to give early warning of the launch of missiles by the other side. Over the years, every innovation within the United States was matched by an equivalent development in the Soviet Union. A vast arsenal of nuclear weapons was created with the capacity to destroy all forms of life on planet Earth. Something had to give. In the wake of the Cuban missile crisis, the United States and the Soviet Union had signed a Partial Test Ban Treaty to stop further atmospheric tests of nuclear weapons. This was a small first step on the long road of slowing up the arms race. In 1968 the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was signed by the US, the USSR and Britain, which had its own small nuclear capability, prohibiting the export of nuclear technology to other countries (France and China by this time also possessed nuclear weapons but did not sign).
The Brilliant Disaster: JFK, Castro, and America's Doomed Invasion of Cuba's Bay of Pigs by Jim Rasenberger
He also draws compelling portraits of the other figures who played key roles in the drama: Fidel Castro, who shortly after achieving power visited New York City and was cheered by thousands (just months before the United States began plotting his demise); Dwight Eisenhower, who originally ordered the secret program, then later disavowed it; Allen Dulles, the CIA director who may have told Kennedy about the plan before he was elected president (or so Richard Nixon suspected); and Richard Bissell, the famously brilliant “deus ex machina” who ran the operation for the CIA—and took the blame when it failed. Beyond the short-term fallout, Rasenberger demonstrates, the Bay of Pigs gave rise to further and greater woes, including the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War, and even, possibly, the assassination of John Kennedy. Written with elegant clarity and narrative verve, The Brilliant Disaster is the most complete account of this event to date, providing not only a fast-paced chronicle of the disaster but an analysis of how it occurred—a question as relevant today as then—and how it profoundly altered the course of modern American history.
—Pittsburgh Post-Gazette “A vivid and fleet-footed account.” —Washingtonian magazine “Rasenberger provides an outstanding chronological day-by-day, nearly minute-by-minute, account of the operation that was first planned during the Eisenhower administration and inherited by JFK.… In the end, Rasenberger makes the case for the large impact that the Bay of Pigs had on historic events that followed, including the Cuban Missile Crisis, the building of the Berlin Wall, the involvement in Vietnam, and the election of President Nixon and Watergate, among others.” —Idaho Statesman “A brilliant book … Students of history too young to remember the events of that April in 1961 will appreciate the thoroughness. For those who lived through that chilling time, it is a page-turner. The details, many of them unknown until now, become as exciting as the story itself.
.… Unlike some Bay of Pigs accounts, this retelling, much to the author’s credit, spreads the blame around.” —Studies in Intelligence “A gripping narrative … Rasenberger provides interesting details about the aftermath, including the Christmas-time release of the captured fighters several years later, his attorney father’s role in that episode, and sums up how the Bay of Pigs continued to reverberate from the Cuban Missile Crisis to Watergate.” —Publishers Weekly “What I love about Jim Rasenberger’s richly detailed, startlingly revisionist account of the Bay of Pigs invasion is his sheer storytelling ability, the wonderful, steady march of plot and counterplot, of heroes and foils. His tale is chock-full of larger-than-life characters—from JFK to Castro, mafia bosses, and the steely-eyed, hypersmart men of the New Frontier.
The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 27 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President by Bandy X. Lee
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, declining real wages, delayed gratification, demand response, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, facts on the ground, fear of failure, illegal immigration, impulse control, meta analysis, meta-analysis, national security letter, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Steve Jobs, The Chicago School
As Brzezinski prepared to call President Carter to advise a full-fledged counterattack, he elected not to wake his sleeping wife, reasoning that she would be dead in a matter of minutes. As he was reaching to phone the president, a third call came in announcing that the report of the incoming missiles was a false alarm caused by a computer glitch. It is extremely disconcerting to note that false alarms and accidents are by no means a rare occurrence. The Cuban Missile Crisis: President Kennedy Unlike the nightmarish false alarm of 1979, lasting five minutes, which few were aware of, the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 lasted thirteen white-knuckle days, played out before the entire world in a series of very real, terrifying actions and reactions between America and the USSR. At several junctures, the world was within an eyelash of all-out nuclear holocaust. The gist of the crisis entailed Russia’s intention to place nuclear missiles in Cuba in response to the United States’ having deployed nuclear sites close to Russia’s borders in Turkey and Italy.
In “Who Goes Trump?” Mika explains how tyrannies are “toxic triangles,” as political scientists call them, necessitating that the tyrant, his supporters, and the society at large bind around narcissism; while the three factors animate for a while, the characteristic oppression, dehumanization, and violence inevitably bring on downfall. In “The Loneliness of Fateful Decisions,” Fisher recounts the Cuban Missile Crisis and notes how, even though President Kennedy surrounded himself with the “best and the brightest,” they disagreed greatly, leaving him alone to make the decisions—which illustrates how the future of our country and the world hang on a president’s mental clarity. In “He’s Got the World in His Hands and His Finger on the Trigger,” Gartrell and Mosbacher note how, while military personnel must undergo rigorous evaluations to assess their mental and medical fitness for duty, there is no such requirement for their commander in chief; they propose a nonpartisan panel of neuropsychiatrists for annual screening.
Returning to our historical examples of nuclear emergencies, is there anyone who could possibly believe DT would have shown Brzezinski’s grace under pressure had he himself received that 3:00 a.m. call? If, indeed, Trump harbors grandiose and paranoid delusions (for which there is mounting evidence), he would have launched missiles faster than he fires off paranoid tweets on a Saturday morning. Given the thirteen days of excruciating tension during the very real nuclear threat of the Cuban Missile Crisis, is there anyone who possibly believes that DT could have demonstrated JFK’s composure, wisdom, and judgment, especially in the face of unanimous pressure from his military advisers? If DT were indeed merely “crazy like a fox,” it would still be a huge stretch—but, increasingly, that appears not to be the case. Michael J. Tansey, Ph.D. (www.drmjtansey.com), is a Chicago-based clinical psychologist, author, and teacher.
If Then: How Simulmatics Corporation Invented the Future by Jill Lepore
A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, anti-communist, Buckminster Fuller, computer age, coronavirus, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, game design, George Gilder, Grace Hopper, Hacker Ethic, Howard Zinn, index card, information retrieval, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, Jeffrey Epstein, job automation, land reform, linear programming, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, mass incarceration, Maui Hawaii, Menlo Park, New Journalism, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, packet switching, Peter Thiel, profit motive, RAND corporation, Robert Bork, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, Telecommunications Act of 1996, urban renewal, War on Poverty, white flight, Whole Earth Catalog
In Fail-Safe, Burdick and Wheeler had argued that a failure of communications, even just a small computer glitch, could lead to Armageddon. After the Cuban Missile Crisis ended, representatives of the United States and the USSR met in Geneva to sign a “Memorandum of Understanding . . . Regarding the Establishment of a Direct Communications Link”: they set up a hotline between the Kremlin and the Pentagon, a link by teletype. Eugene Burdick took credit for that idea, since this very hotline links Moscow and Washington in Fail-Safe. “We needed it as a dramatic device,” Burdick explained. He said that when he was writing the novel, he’d asked Kennedy if such a hotline actually existed. Burdick recalled, “And he replied no but admitted that it might not be a bad idea.”60 In a broader sense, too, the Cuban Missile Crisis changed the course of the Cold War. Coming so close to a nuclear war made it clear to anyone who had not yet understood as much that any strike would lead to another strike, and before too long, the whole world might be gone.
The Red Threat: President Orders Cuban Blockade, newsreel, October 22, 1962, https://archive.org/details/1962-10-22_The_Red_Threat. Martin, Adlai Stevenson and the World, 719–21. “U.S. Imposes Arms Blockade,” NYT, October 23, 1962. Aldous, Schlesinger, 292–93. See also “The World on the Brink: John F. Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis—Day 10,” Kennedy Library, https://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct25/. Martin, Adlai Stevenson and the World, 728–37. “The World on the Brink: John F. Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis—Department of State Telegram,” Kennedy Library, https://microsites.jfklibrary.org/cmc/oct26/doc4.html. Aldous, Schlesinger, 290. Martin, Adlai Stevenson and the World, 728–37. Paine Knickerbocker, “Gene Burdick Attacks a ‘Lie’ on ‘Fail-Safe,’ ” San Francisco Chronicle, October 9, 1964.
Stevenson, echoing warnings issued by the Kennedy administration, said that the United States would consider the establishment of a missile site as an act of aggression. On October 14, Stevenson met with Kennedy in New York. That same day, a CIA-run U-2 flying a secret surveillance mission over Cuba took photographs that revealed the existence of a launching pad and at least one nuclear missile in San Cristóbal.33 The Cuban Missile Crisis had begun. Over the next thirteen days, the United States—and the world—would come closer to nuclear war than at any other point during the Cold War. On Tuesday, October 16, Kennedy called for the first of a series of secret meetings in the White House of a group that came to be called “ExComm”—the Executive Committee of the National Security Council. Chaired by Robert Kennedy, ExComm included Secretary of State Dean Rusk and Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara.
The Age of Radiance: The Epic Rise and Dramatic Fall of the Atomic Era by Craig Nelson
Albert Einstein, Brownian motion, Charles Lindbergh, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, continuation of politics by other means, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, Doomsday Clock, El Camino Real, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, Henri Poincaré, hive mind, Isaac Newton, John von Neumann, Louis Pasteur, low earth orbit, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, music of the spheres, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, Project Plowshare, Ralph Nader, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Stuxnet, technoutopianism, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, éminence grise
Life Itself, Its Origin and Nature. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1981. Cronin, J. W. Fermi Remembered. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2004. Crowell, William P. “Remembrances of Venona.” CIA Headquarters, July 11, 1995. http://www.nsa.gov/public_info/declass/venona/remembrances.shtml. “Cuban Missile Crisis.” AtomicArchive.com. http://www.atomicarchive.com/Docs/Cuba/index.shtml. “Cuban Missile Crisis.” Wilson Center Digital Archive. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/collection/31/Cuban-Missile-Crisis. Cumings, Bruce. “Korea: Forgotten Nuclear Threats.” Le Monde Diplomatique, December 2004. Curie, Ève. Madame Curie. New York: Doubleday, 1937. Curie, Marie. Cher Pierre que je ne reverrai plus (Journal 1906–1907). Paris: Editions Odile Jacob, 1996. ———. Pierre Curie. New York: Macmillan Company, 1923.
., 265 arms race and, 276–77, 282, 289, 376 atomic satellite programs and, 305–06 Bay of Pigs invasion and, 286, 293–94 Cuban Missile Crisis and, 294–99 fallout shelters and, 286 joint moon mission proposal and, 284 Khrushchev and, 285–86 missile gap and, 282, 285–86, 293–94 nuclear air power programs and, 305 nuclear defense strategies and, 288–89 Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and, 374 presidential campaign against Nixon by, 282, 284–85 Kennedy, Robert, 297 KGB, 172, 238, 240, 292, 293, 327 Khan, Abdul Qadeer, 338 Khrushchev, Nikita, 370–71 arms race and¸ 245, 254, 267, 276–77, 284–85, 373 Bay of Pigs invasion and, 286, 293–94 Cold War and, 300 Cuban Missile Crisis and, 294–95, 296–97, 298, 299 joint moon mission proposal and, 284 rise to power by, 254 Szilard’s meeting with, 267 US perception of threats from, 256 Khrushchev, Sergei, 246, 256, 284, 290, 294–95, 297, 298 Killing a Nation defense strategy, 277, 292, 293, 372 Kim Il Sung, 243, 373 King, Ernest, 221–22 Kissinger, Henry A., 282, 335 Kistiakowsky, George (Kisty), 169, 171, 173, 196, 197–98, 199, 202, 228 Klaproth, Martin, 25 Knuth, August, 130 Kolbert, Elizabeth, 360–61 Korea.
Szilard was promised fifteen minutes but unsurprisingly to any of his friends, the talk went on for two hours, with Khrushchev finally agreeing to the possibility of an international agency that would limit arms escalation and a communications hotline between the Soviet premier and the American president in case of nuclear crisis. That hotline would also appear in Dr. Strangelove, but would not exist in the real world until the Cuban Missile Crisis and its series of delayed telegrams made it clear to both sides that this was worthwhile. In April 1958, the USSR unilaterally suspended nuclear testing, and after the AEC’s Strauss warned Eisenhower that a reciprocal American test ban would turn Los Alamos and Livermore into “ghost towns,” the president growled that he “thought scientists, like other people, have a strong interest in avoiding nuclear war.”
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity by Toby Ord
3D printing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, availability heuristic, Columbian Exchange, computer vision, cosmological constant, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth, delayed gratification, demographic transition, Doomsday Clock, Drosophila, effective altruism, Elon Musk, Ernest Rutherford, global pandemic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, nuclear winter, p-value, Peter Singer: altruism, planetary scale, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supervolcano, survivorship bias, the scientific method, uranium enrichment
A key difference between the two framings is that the pacing problem refers to the speed of technological change, rather than to its growing power to change the world. 58 Sagan (1994), pp. 316–17. 59 Barack Obama, Remarks at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial (2016). Consider also the words of John F. Kennedy on the twentieth anniversary of the nuclear chain reaction (just a month after the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis): “our progress in the use of science has been great, but our progress in ordering our relations small” (Kennedy, 1962). 60 In his quest for peace after the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy (1963) put it so: “Our problems are manmade—therefore, they can be solved by man. And man can be as big as he wants. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings.” Of course one could have some human-made problems that have gone past a point of no return, but that is not yet the case for any of those being considered in this book.
On Saturday, October 27, 1962, a single officer on a Soviet submarine almost started a nuclear war. His name was Valentin Savitsky. He was captain of the submarine B-59—one of four submarines the Soviet Union had sent to support its military operations in Cuba. Each was armed with a secret weapon: a nuclear torpedo with explosive power comparable to the Hiroshima bomb. It was the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Two weeks earlier, US aerial reconnaissance had produced photographic evidence that the Soviet Union was installing nuclear missiles in Cuba, from which they could strike directly at the mainland United States. In response, the US blockaded the seas around Cuba, drew up plans for an invasion and brought its nuclear forces to the unprecedented alert level of DEFCON 2 (“Next step to nuclear war”).
So we might expect these obvious dangers to create a certain kind of safety—where world leaders inevitably back down before the brink. But as more and more behind-the-scenes evidence from the Cold War has become public, it has become increasingly clear that we have only barely avoided full-scale nuclear war. We saw how the intervention of a single person, Captain Vasili Arkhipov, may have prevented an all-out nuclear war at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis. But even more shocking is just how many times in those few days we came close to disaster, only to be pulled back by the decisions of a few individuals. The principal events of the crisis took place over a single week. On Monday, October 22, 1962, President John F. Kennedy gave a television address, informing his nation that the Soviets had begun installing strategic nuclear missiles in Cuba—directly threatening the United States.
Hegemony or Survival: America's Quest for Global Dominance by Noam Chomsky
anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, Doomsday Clock, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, invisible hand, liberation theology, long peace, market fundamentalism, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, uranium enrichment
With different threats in mind, strategic analyst Michael Krepon regarded the final days of 2002 as “the most dangerous time since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.” A high-level task force concluded that “we are entering a time of especially grave danger [as we] are preparing to attack a ruthless adversary [Iraq] who may well have access to [weapons of mass destruction].” Such dangers are likely to become even more grave in the longer term as a consequence of the easy resort to violence, as many have pointed out.1 The reasons behind these concerns merit close attention, but too narrow a focus can be misleading. We can gain a more realistic perspective on them by asking why the Cuban missile crisis was such a “dangerous time.” The answers bear directly on the perils ahead. ONE WORD AWAY FROM NUCLEAR WAR The missile crisis “was the most dangerous moment in human history,” Arthur Schlesinger commented in October 2002 at a conference in Havana on the fortieth anniversary of the crisis, attended by a number of those who witnessed it from within as it unfolded.
The quoted words are not those of Dick Cheney or Donald Rumsfeld, or any of the other statist reactionaries who formulated the National Security Strategy of September 2002. Rather, they were spoken by the respected liberal elder statesman Dean Acheson in 1963. He was justifying US actions against Cuba in full knowledge that Washington’s international terrorist campaign aimed at “regime change” had been a significant factor in bringing the world close to nuclear war only a few months earlier, and that it was resumed immediately after the Cuban missile crisis was resolved. Nevertheless, he instructed the American Society of International Law that no “legal issue” arises when the US responds to a challenge to its “power, position, and prestige.” Acheson’s doctrine was subsequently invoked by the Reagan administration, at the other end of the political spectrum, when it rejected World Court jurisdiction over its attack on Nicaragua, dismissed the court order to terminate its crimes, and then vetoed two Security Council resolutions affirming the court judgment and calling on all states to observe international law.
The word noise connotes “discordant, unintelligent clamor,” Costigliola adds.11 Perhaps many Europeans might not be too happy about the significance accorded their survival, even if respected US commentators are confident that their reluctance to “come along” is a sign of “paranoid anti-Americanism,” “ignorance and avarice,” and other “cultural deficiencies.” International terrorism dominated the headlines as the retrospective conference took place; so did Washington’s allegedly novel doctrine of regime change. But there is little novel here: The Cuban missile crisis grew directly out of a campaign of international terrorism aimed at forceful regime change. Historian Thomas Paterson concludes, quite plausibly, that “the origins of the October 1962 crisis derived largely from the concerted U.S. campaign to quash the Cuban revolution” by violence and economic warfare.12 We can gain a better insight into current implications by looking at how the crisis evolved, and the guiding principles that motivated policy.
Destined for War: America, China, and Thucydides's Trap by Graham Allison
9 dash line, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, borderless world, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, facts on the ground, Flash crash, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, game design, George Santayana, Haber-Bosch Process, industrial robot, Internet of things, Kenneth Rogoff, liberal world order, long peace, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, one-China policy, Paul Samuelson, Peace of Westphalia, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, special economic zone, spice trade, the rule of 72, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade route, UNCLOS, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
Reflecting on his own responsibilities, Kennedy pledged that if he ever found himself facing choices that could make the difference between catastrophic war and peace, he would be able to give history a better answer than Bethmann Hollweg’s. Kennedy had no inkling of what lay ahead. In October 1962, just two months after he read Tuchman’s book, he faced off against Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in the most dangerous confrontation in human history. The Cuban Missile Crisis began when the United States discovered the Soviets attempting to sneak nuclear-tipped missiles into Cuba, a mere ninety miles from Florida. The situation quickly escalated from diplomatic threats to an American blockade of the island, military mobilizations in both the US and USSR, and several high-stakes clashes, including the shooting down of an American U-2 spy plane over Cuba. At the height of the crisis, which lasted for a tense thirteen days, Kennedy confided to his brother Robert that he believed the chances it would end in nuclear war were “between one-in-three and even.”
The complexity of causation in human affairs has vexed philosophers, jurists, and social scientists. In analyzing how wars break out, historians focus primarily on proximate, or immediate, causes. In the case of World War I, these include the assassination of the Hapsburg archduke Franz Ferdinand and the decision by Tsar Nicholas II to mobilize Russian forces against the Central Powers. If the Cuban Missile Crisis had resulted in war, the proximate causes could have been the Soviet submarine captain’s decision to fire his torpedoes rather than allow his submarine to sink, or a Turkish pilot’s errant choice to fly his nuclear payload to Moscow. Proximate causes for war are undeniably important. But the founder of history believed that the most obvious causes for bloodshed mask even more significant ones.
Paradoxically, each must demonstrate a willingness to risk losing such a war—or find itself nudged off the road. Think again about the game of chicken discussed in chapter 8. Consider each clause of the paradox. On the one hand, if war occurs, both nations lose. There is no value for which rational leaders could reasonably choose the deaths of hundreds of millions of their own citizens. In that sense, in the Cuban Missile Crisis President Kennedy and Chairman Khrushchev were partners in a struggle to prevent mutual disaster. But this is the condition for both nations, and the leaders of both nations know it. Thus, on the other hand, if either nation is unwilling to risk waging (losing) a nuclear war, its opponent can win any objective by creating conditions that force the more responsible power to choose between yielding and risking escalation to war.
The Secret War Between Downloading and Uploading: Tales of the Computer as Culture Machine by Peter Lunenfeld
Albert Einstein, Andrew Keen, anti-globalists, Apple II, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Brownian motion, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, business cycle, butterfly effect, computer age, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, don't be evil, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, East Village, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Gehry, Grace Hopper, gravity well, Guggenheim Bilbao, Honoré de Balzac, Howard Rheingold, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Mercator projection, Metcalfe’s law, Mother of all demos, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-materialism, Potemkin village, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, Robert Metcalfe, Robert X Cringely, Schrödinger's Cat, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, Skype, social software, spaced repetition, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Ted Nelson, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the medium is the message, Thomas L Friedman, Turing machine, Turing test, urban planning, urban renewal, Vannevar Bush, walkable city, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Shockley: the traitorous eight
The bomb has been cited as the catalyst for everything from the rise of existentialism in the 1950s to the rebirth of religiosity in the West, from atomic age googie diners in Southern California to the kawai/cuteness of contemporary Japanese Superﬂat art. I was a baby when President John F. Kennedy appeared on all three major television networks to announce that the Soviets were stationing ballistic missiles just ninety miles off the Florida coast, and that what was later to be called the Cuban Missile Crisis was at hand. Kennedy used the medium of television to talk about the bomb, not only to the American people, but also to the leadership in Havana and Moscow, bypassing the customary diplomatic notiﬁcation procedures entirely. The family lore is that my parents stayed up all that night in terror for themselves and for me. All throughout my college years, I would occasionally look over my shoulder to see if there was a vapor trail in the sky pointing the way to atomic apocalypse.
All hyperlinks current as of October 1, 2010 197 INDEX Adobe Systems, 55 Adstar, 177 Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA), 152, 158 Advertisement, 184nn12,15 bespoke futures and, 107 culture machine and, 175–177 stickiness and, 23, 31 unimodernism and, 52, 57, 59 Affordances, 183n4 bespoke futures and, 121, 124, 129, 136 stickiness and, 16–17, 24, 28–35 unimodernism and, 68, 75 Web n.0 and, 80–82, 90 Afghanistan, 100 African National Congress, 113 AfterSherrieLevine.com, 41–42 Agee, James, 40–42 Age of Aquarius, 159 Agribusiness, 4, 10 Airplanes, xiii Alessi, 64 Algorithms, 46, 144, 174–177 Allen, Paul, 164 “All You Need Is Love” (Beatles), 62 Al-Muhajiroun, 134 Al-Qaeda, 134 Altair personal computer, 161, 164 Alto personal computer, 162 Amazing Stories (comic book), 108–110 Amazon, 68, 99, 145 Amis, Kinsley, 32 Animation, 55–56, 58, 110, 118 Antiglobalization activists, 98 AOL, 9, 53, 99 Apartheid, 112–113 Apple, 144, 163–167, 172, 186n12 Appropriate scale, 57 Aquarians, 24, 152, 159, 168–169 description of term, xv Engelbart and, 144, 157–167 Kay and, 144, 157, 160–167, 195nn16,17 Nelson and, 168 networked computers and, xv Sutherland and, 160–161 Arcades, 15, 71 Architectural Forum magazine, 84 Ariadne, 11 Arnold, Matthew, 14 Ars Electronica, 169–170 Art nouveau, 44, 66 “As We May Think” (Bush), 149, 157 AT&T, 144, 195n10 Atari, 165 Atlantic Monthly, 149 Atomic age, 146 as catalyst, xi Cuban Missile Crisis and, xi description of, xv emergence of, xi–xii 198 Atomic age (continued) Hiroshima and, 100–101 Manhattan Project and, 150 mutually assured destruction and, xi terrorism and, 100–101 Avant-gardism, 31, 44, 61, 117–120, 133 Babbage, Charles, 149 Bakri Muhammad, Omar, 134–135 Bali, 100 Ballmer, Steve, 164 Balzac, Honoré de, 44 Banham, Reyner, 10 Barr, Alfred, 117–118 Bauhaus, 117 BBC, 10 Beatles, 54–55, 62 Bebop, 25–27 Beirut, Michael, 102 Bellamy, Edward, 108 Benjamin, Walter, 88 Berg, Alban, 45 Berlin Wall, xvi, 85, 97, 99, 104 Bernays, Edward L., 123–124 Berners-Lee, Tim, 144, 167–169, 175 Bespoke futures adopting future as client and, 110–113 anticipated technology and, 108–110 crafting, 113–116 design and, 102, 105–106, 110–111, 115–116, 119–120, 124–125, 137 downloading and, 97, 123, 132, 138 dynamic equilibrium and, 117–120 89/11 and, xvi, 97, 100–102, 105, 130 Enlightenment and, xvi, 129–139 information and, 98, 100–101, 124–126 lack of vision and, 106–108 markets and, 97–104, 118, 120, 127, 131–132, 137–138 MaSAI (Massively Synchronous Applications of the Imagination) and, xvi, 112, 120–123, 127, 193n32 199 modernists and, 105–108 mutants and, 105–108 networks and, 98–101, 108, 112–113, 116, 119–126, 133, 137 New Economy and, 97, 99, 104, 131, 138, 144–145, 190n3 participation and, 98–99, 120–121, 129 plutopian meliorism and, xvi, 127–129, 133, 137–138 prosumers and, 120–121 reperceiving and, 112–113 R-PR (Really Public Relations) and, 123–127 scenario planning and, 111–119, 191n19, 192n20 simulation and, 98, 121, 124, 126–127 strange attractors and, xvi, 117–120, 192n27 technology and, 98–104, 107–113, 116, 119, 125–127, 131–133, 136–139 television and, 101, 108, 124, 127–129, 133–137 unﬁnish and, 127–129, 136 uploading and, 97, 120–123, 128–129, 132 Best use, 10, 13–15, 138 Bezos, Jeff, 145 Bible, 28, 137 BitTorrent, 92 Black Album, The (Jay Z), 55 Blade Runner (Scott), 107 Blogger, 177 Blogosphere, xvii bespoke futures and, 101 culture machine and, 175, 177 Facebook and, 81, 145, 180n2 stickiness and, 30, 34 Twitter and, 34, 180n2 unimodernism and, 49, 68 Web n.0 and, 80, 92–93 INDEX Bohème, La (Puccini), 61 Boing Boing magazine, 68–69 Bollywood, 62 Bourgeoisie, 31 Bowie, David, 62 Braque, Georges, 93 Breuer, Marcel, 45 Brillat-Savarin, Jean Anthèlme, 3 Brin, Sergey, 144, 174–176 Broadband technology, 9, 57 Brownian motion, 49 Burroughs, Allie Mae, 40–42 Burroughs, William, 52 Bush, Vannevar, 52, 194n6 culture machine and, 144, 147–152, 157 Engelbart and, 157 Memex and, 108, 149–151 Oppenheimer and, 150 systems theory and, 151 war effort and, 150–151 Business 2.0 magazine, 145 C3I , 146–147 Cabrini Green, 85 Calypso, 25–27 Cambodia, 107 Cambridge, 17, 36 “Can-Can” (“Orpheus in the Underworld”) (Offenbach), 62 Capitalism, 4, 13 bespoke futures and, 97–100, 103–105 Sears and, 103–105 stickiness and, 13 unimodernism and, 66, 75 Web n.0 and, 90 Capitulationism, 7, 24, 30, 182n1 Carnegie, Andrew, 166 Casablanca (ﬁlm), 90 Cassette tapes, 2 CATIA 3–D software, 39 Cell phones, xiii, xvii, 17, 23, 42, 53, 56, 76, 101 Chaos theory, 117–120 Chaplin, Charlie, 45 Cheney, Dick, 99 China, 104, 107 Christians, 135 Cicero, 47 Cinema, 8, 10 micro, 56–60 stickiness and, 15 unimodernism and, 47, 52, 56–60, 63, 71 Clarke, Arthur C., 174 CNN, 58 Cobain, Kurt, 62 Code breaking, 17–18 Cold war, 101 Cole, Nat King, 62 Commercial culture, 4–5, 8 bespoke futures and, 98, 102, 108, 120, 132–134 culture machine and, 153–156, 167, 170, 172, 175–177 copyright and, 54, 88–95, 123, 164, 166, 173, 177 Mickey Mouse Protection Act and, 90 open source and, 36, 61, 69, 74–75, 91–92, 116, 121–126, 144, 170– 173, 177, 189n12 propaganda and, 124 scenario planning and, 111–119 stickiness and, 23, 28–31, 37 unimodernism and, 41, 69 Web n.0 and, 82–86 Commercial syndrome, 85–86 Communism, 97–98, 103 Compact discs (CDs), 2, 48, 53 Complex City (Simon), 39 “Computable Numbers, On” (Turing), 18 Computer Data Systems, 145 Computers, xi.
Congress and, 90 violations of, 92–93, 95 Web n.0 and, 88–95 Corian, 64 Creative Commons, 173, 189n12 bespoke futures and, 123 Mickey Mouse Protection Act and, 90 Computers (continued) Aquarians and, xv, 24, 144, 152, 157, 159–169 challenge to television of, 2 as culture machine, xiv, xvi, xv–xvi, 5 (see also Culture machine) distribution and, xiii dominance of, xii–xiii, xiv as dream machines, xiii emergence of, xii–xiii ﬁrst, 146 hackers and, 22–23, 54, 67, 69, 162, 170–173 historical perspective on, 143–178 Hosts and, xv, 144, 167, 175 Hustlers and, xv, 144, 156, 162–167 intelligence test for, 19 as “Man of the Year,” xii Moore’s law and, 156, 195n13 mouse for, 158–159 participation and, xvi, 15–17, 27–35, 54, 66–67, 74–80, 98–99, 120– 121, 129, 143–147, 151, 156–165, 170, 175–178 Patriarchs and, xv, 143–144, 147–153, 156–157, 162–163, 166–168 personal, 152, 161–167 Plutocrats and, xv, 144, 152–159, 163–166, 170 production and, xiii relationship with data and, 32 Searchers and, xv–xvi, 144, 167, 174–178 simulation and, xvi, 2 (see also Simulation) Sterling on, 101–102 symbiosis and, 151–152 systems theory and, 151 ubiquity and, xiii, 22–23, 39, 57–59, 62, 74, 81–82, 87, 92–93, 125, 128, 144, 166, 177–178 Universal Turing Machine and, 18–19 201 INDEX Creative Commons (continued) open source and, 90–93, 123, 173 purpose of, 91 Web n.0 and, 90–93 Creatives, 30 Credit cards, 76 Crenshaw district, 105 Critical inquiry, 14 Cuban Missile Crisis, xi Cubism, 44, 79, 117 Cultural issues commercialism and, 4–5, 8 (see also Commercial culture) diabetic technologies and, 3–5 dominance of television and, xii, 2–5, 7–10 fan culture and, 28–32, 48, 49, 87 free culture and, 75, 92, 98–99 Freud and, 43–44 hierarchies and, 1, 24, 29, 93, 114 junk culture and, 5–10 mass/pop culture and, 13, 31, 39–40, 47–48, 53, 56–58, 61–63, 107, 109, 184n16 mechanization and, 44–45 open source and, 36, 61, 69, 74–75, 91–92, 116, 121–126, 144, 170– 173, 177, 189n12 psychology and, 16, 21–22, 42–44, 56, 151, 161 secular culture and, 133–139 Slow Food and, 5–7 stickiness and, 28–32 (see also Stickiness) Culture machine, 5 Aquarians and, xv, 24, 144, 152, 157, 159–169 bespoke futures and, 97–101, 116, 123–133, 137–138 design and, 139, 150, 160, 165, 167, 171–172, 176 development of, 143–178 downloading and, 143, 168 gaming and, 70–74 Hosts and, xv, 144, 167, 175 Hustlers and, xv, 144, 156, 162–167 information and, 46, 143–149, 152– 153, 163, 167–168, 172, 176–178 networks and, 143–144, 152, 167– 168, 172–175, 178 participation and, 15–17, 143–147, 151, 156–165, 170, 175–178 Patriarchs and, xv, 143–144, 147–153, 156–157, 162–163, 166–168 Plutocrats and, xv, 144, 152–159, 163–166, 170 postmodernism and, 39–40 Searchers and, xv–xvi, 144, 167, 174–178 simulation and, 15–17, 143–144, 147– 152, 156–160, 166–168, 175–178 stickiness and, 15–19, 27, 32, 35 technology and, 143–163, 173–174 unimodernism and, 39, 42, 46–60, 67–76 uploading and, 143, 168, 173, 175 Warriors and, 146–147 Web n.0 and, 79–85, 90–93 Cut-up ﬁction, 52 Cyberpunk, 68, 87, 110 Czechoslovakia, 104 Dada, 79, 186n8 Danger Mouse, 54–55 Dare, Dan, 108 Darth Vader, 90 Darwin, Charles, 133 Davis, Miles, 25–26 Dawkins, Richard, 143 Death and Life of Great American Cities, The (Jacobs), 84–85 Deconstruction, 29–31 DeLanda, Manuel, 189n8 De.lic.ious, 75 202 INDEX Design bespoke futures and, 102, 105–106, 110–111, 115–116, 119–120, 124–125, 137 control over form and, 111 culture machine and, 139, 150, 160, 165, 167, 171–172, 176 future as client and, 110–113 futurists on, 101–102 graphic, 31, 45, 64, 102, 181n7 Gropius and, 36–37 isotypes and, 44, 125, 193n34 mechanization and, 44–45 Moore’s law and, 156 open source, 36, 61, 69, 74–75, 91–92, 116, 121–126, 144, 170– 173, 177, 189n12 play and, 32–34 postmodernism and, 29–30, 39–41, 74, 79, 130, 135 power and, 32–34 tweaking and, 32–35 unimodernism and, 39, 43–46, 49, 55–56, 60, 64–8, 71–74 Design of Everyday Things, The (Norman), 16 Design Within Reach, 46 Desk jobs, 3 Dewey, John, 129 Dewey, Melvil, 80 Diabetes, 3–5, 8 “Diamond Dogs” (Bowie), 62 Dick, Philip K., 9 Difference engine, 149 Digg, 34 Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), 71, 149, 153, 163, 170 Digital video discs (DVDs), 2, 7–8, 15, 58 Digital video recorders (DVRs), 2, 7, 15, 23, 181n3 Disco, 63 Disney Concert Hall, 39 DIY (do-it-yourself) movements, 67–70 203 Dot-com bubble, 79, 145, 174 Doubleclick, 177 Downloading, xiii–xiv, 180nn1,2 animal kingdom and, 1 bespoke futures and, 97, 123, 132, 138 best use and, 13–14 commercial networks and, 4–5 communication devices and, 15–16 cultural hierarchy of, 1–2 culture machine and, 143, 168 dangers of overabundance and, 7–10 deﬁned, 1 diabetic responses to, 3–5 disrupting ﬂow and, 23–24 ﬁgure/ground and, xvi, 42–43, 46, 102 Freedom software and, 22–23 habits of mind and, 9–10 humans and, 1–2 information overload and, 22, 149 info-triage and, xvi, 20–23, 121, 132, 143 as intake, 5 mindfulness and, xvi, 14, 17, 20–24, 27–29, 42, 77, 79, 123, 129, 183n6 patio potato and, 9–10, 13 peer-to-peer networks and, 15, 54, 92, 116, 126 stickiness and, 13–17, 20–23, 27–29, 184n15 surﬁng and, 20, 80, 180n2 television and, 2 unimodernism and, 41–42, 49, 54–57, 66–67, 76–77 viral distribution and, 30, 56, 169 wants vs. needs and, 13, 37, 57 Web n.0 and, 79, 82–83, 86–87 Duchamp, Marcel, 44, 48, 94 Dymaxion map, 73 Dynabook, 161–162, 196n17 Dynamic equilibrium, 117–120 EBay, 68 Eckert, J.
Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War by Paul Scharre
active measures, Air France Flight 447, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, automated trading system, autonomous vehicles, basic income, brain emulation, Brian Krebs, cognitive bias, computer vision, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, DARPA: Urban Challenge, DevOps, drone strike, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, facts on the ground, fault tolerance, Flash crash, Freestyle chess, friendly fire, IFF: identification friend or foe, ImageNet competition, Internet of things, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, Loebner Prize, loose coupling, Mark Zuckerberg, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nate Silver, pattern recognition, Rodney Brooks, Rubik’s Cube, self-driving car, sensor fusion, South China Sea, speech recognition, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Wozniak, Stuxnet, superintelligent machines, Tesla Model S, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, theory of mind, Turing test, universal basic income, Valery Gerasimov, Wall-E, William Langewiesche, Y2K, zero day
In recent years, the U.S. military has jockeyed for position with Russian warplanes in Syria and the Black Sea, Iranian fast boats in the Straits of Hormuz, and Chinese ships and air defenses in the South China Sea. Periods of brinksmanship, where nations flex their militaries to assert dominance but without actually firing weapons, are common in international relations. Sometimes tensions escalate to full-blown crises in which war appears imminent, such as the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. In such situations, even the tiniest incident can trigger war. In 1914, a lone gunman assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, sparking a chain of events that led to World War I. Miscalculation and ambiguity are common in these tense situations, and confusion and accidents can generate momentum toward war. The Gulf of Tonkin incident, which led Congress to authorize the war in Vietnam, was later discovered to be partially false; a purported gun battle between U.S. and Vietnamese boats on August 4, 1964, never occurred.
Command-and-control refers to the ability of leaders to effectively marshal their military forces for a common goal and is a frequent concern in crises. National leaders do not have perfect control over their forces, and warfighters can and sometimes do take actions inconsistent with their national leadership’s intent, whether out of ignorance, negligence, or deliberate attempts to defy authorities. The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis was rife with such incidents. On October 26, ten days into the crisis, authorities at Vandenberg Air Force Base carried out a scheduled test launch of an Atlas ICBM without first checking with the White House. The next morning, on October 27, an American U-2 surveillance plane was shot down while flying over Cuba, despite orders by Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev not to fire on U.S. surveillance aircraft.
Even if we could ensure that the autonomous weapon would flawlessly carry out political leaders’ directions, with no malfunctions or manipulation by the enemy, “you still have the problem that that’s a snapshot of the preferences and desires at that moment in time,” he said. Danks explained that people generally do a good job of predicting their own future preferences for situations they have experience with, but for “a completely novel situation . . . there’s real risks that we’re going to have pretty significant projection biases.” Again, the Cuban Missile Crisis illustrates the problem. Robert McNamara, who was secretary of defense at the time, later explained that the president’s senior advisors believed that if the U-2 they sent to fly over Cuba were shot down, it would have signaled a deliberate move by the Soviets to escalate. They had decided ahead of time, therefore, that if the U-2 was shot down, the United States would attack: [B]efore we sent the U-2 out, we agreed that if it was shot down we wouldn’t meet, we’d simply attack.
Because We Say So by Noam Chomsky
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Legislative Exchange Council, Chelsea Manning, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Julian Assange, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, Powell Memorandum, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Slavoj Žižek, Stanislav Petrov, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks
IN HIROSHIMA’S SHADOW August 1, 2012 August 6, the anniversary of Hiroshima, should be a day of somber reflection, not only on the terrible events of that day in 1945, but also on what they revealed: that humans, in their dedicated quest to extend their capacities for destruction, had finally found a way to approach the ultimate limit. This year’s August 6 memorials have special significance. They take place shortly before the 50th anniversary of “the most dangerous moment in human history,” in the words of the historian and John F. Kennedy adviser Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., referring to the Cuban missile crisis. Graham Allison writes in the current issue of FOREIGN AFFAIRS that Kennedy “ordered actions that he knew would increase the risk not only of conventional war but also nuclear war,” with a likelihood of perhaps 50 percent, he believed, an estimate that Allison regards as realistic. Kennedy declared a high-level nuclear alert that authorized “NATO aircraft with Turkish pilots . . . [or others] . . . to take off, fly to Moscow, and drop a bomb.”
India and Pakistan have come close to nuclear war. There have been innumerable cases when human intervention aborted nuclear attack only moments before launch after false reports by automated systems. There is much to think about on August 6. Allison joins many others in regarding Iran’s nuclear programs as the most severe current crisis, “an even more complex challenge for American policymakers than the Cuban missile crisis” because of the threat of Israeli bombing. The war against Iran is already well under way, including assassination of scientists and economic pressures that have reached the level of “undeclared war,” in the judgment of the Iran specialist Gary Sick. Great pride is taken in the sophisticated cyberwar directed against Iran. The Pentagon regards cyberwar as “an act of war” that authorizes the target “to respond using traditional military force,” the WALL STREET JOURNAL reports.
But the achievements of those who have struggled for centuries for greater freedom and justice leave a legacy that can be taken up and carried forward—and must be, and soon, if hopes for decent survival are to be sustained. And nothing can tell us more eloquently what kind of creatures we are. RED LINES IN UKRAINE AND ELSEWHERE April 30, 2014 The current Ukraine crisis is serious and threatening, so much so that some commentators even compare it to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. Columnist Thanassis Cambanis summarizes the core issue succinctly in the BOSTON GLOBE: “[President Vladimir V.] Putin’s annexation of the Crimea is a break in the order that America and its allies have come to rely on since the end of the Cold War— namely, one in which major powers only intervene militarily when they have an international consensus on their side, or failing that, when they’re not crossing a rival power’s red lines.”
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, availability heuristic, Black Swan, butterfly effect, buy and hold, cloud computing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, desegregation, drone strike, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, forward guidance, Freestyle chess, fundamental attribution error, germ theory of disease, hindsight bias, index fund, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Kenneth Arrow, Laplace demon, longitudinal study, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mohammed Bouazizi, Nash equilibrium, Nate Silver, Nelson Mandela, obamacare, pattern recognition, performance metric, Pierre-Simon Laplace, place-making, placebo effect, prediction markets, quantitative easing, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, scientific worldview, Silicon Valley, Skype, statistical model, stem cell, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!
Within eighteen months, an island off the coast of Florida was a base for five thousand Soviet soldiers and an array of Soviet intermediate-range nuclear missiles that could destroy Washington, DC, and New York City, and the two global superpowers were locked in a crisis that Kennedy estimated, in retrospect, had between a one-third and one-half chance of escalating into nuclear war. The story of the Cuban missile crisis that followed from the Bay of Pigs fiasco is equally familiar, but the similarities end there. Over thirteen terrifying days in October 1962, the Kennedy administration considered a range of dangerous options to counter the Soviet threat—including outright invasion—before settling on a naval blockade. As Soviet ships approached the American red line, each side tried to figure out the other’s intentions from its actions and back-channel communications. Finally an agreement was reached, war was averted, and the world exhaled. If the Bay of Pigs was the Kennedy administration’s nadir, the Cuban missile crisis was its zenith, a moment when Kennedy and his team creatively engineered a positive result under extreme pressure.
Knowing this, we might assume Kennedy cleaned house after the Bay of Pigs and surrounded himself with far superior advisers in time for the missile crisis. But he didn’t. The cast of characters in both dramas is mostly the same: the team that bungled the Bay of Pigs was the team that performed brilliantly during the Cuban missile crisis. In his 1972 classic, Victims of Groupthink, the psychologist Irving Janis—one of my PhD advisers at Yale long ago—explored the decision making that went into both the Bay of Pigs invasion and the Cuban missile crisis. Today, everyone has heard of groupthink, although few have read the book that coined the term or know that Janis meant something more precise than the vague catchphrase groupthink has become today. In Janis’s hypothesis, “members of any small cohesive group tend to maintain esprit de corps by unconsciously developing a number of shared illusions and related norms that interfere with critical thinking and reality testing.”3 Groups that get along too well don’t question assumptions or confront uncomfortable facts.
This is the root of collective folly, whether it’s Dutch investors in the seventeenth century, who became collectively convinced that a tulip bulb was worth more than a laborer’s annual salary, or American home buyers in 2005, talking themselves into believing that real estate prices could only go up. But loss of independence isn’t inevitable in a group, as JFK’s team showed during the Cuban missile crisis. If forecasters can keep questioning themselves and their teammates, and welcome vigorous debate, the group can become more than the sum of its parts. So would groups lift superforecasters up or drag them down? Some of us suspected one outcome, others the opposite, but deep down, we knew we were all guessing. Ultimately, we chose to build teams into our research for two reasons. First, in the real world, people seldom make important forecasts without discussing them with others, so getting a better understanding of forecasting in the real world required a better understanding of forecasting in groups.
Interventions by Noam Chomsky
Albert Einstein, Ayatollah Khomeini, cuban missile crisis, energy security, facts on the ground, failed state, Monroe Doctrine, nuremberg principles, old-boy network, Ralph Nader, Thorstein Veblen, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, éminence grise
A large part of the opposition to Bush’s war is based on recognition that Iraq is only a special case of the “imperial ambition” declared forcefully in last September’s (2002) National Security Strategy. For perspective on our current situation, it may be useful to attend to very recent history. Last October (2002) the nature of threats to peace was dramatically underscored at the summit meeting in Havana on the fortieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, attended by key participants from Cuba, Russia, and the United States. The fact that we survived the crisis was a miracle. We learned that the world was saved from possible nuclear devastation by one Russian submarine captain, Vasily Arkhipov, who countermanded an order to fire nuclear-tipped torpedos when Russian submarines were attacked by U.S. destroyers near Kennedy’s “quarantine” line.
At the same time, the war drums began to beat to mobilize the population for an invasion of Iraq. And the campaign opened for the midterm congressional elections, which would determine whether the administration would be able to carry out its radical international and domestic agenda. The final days of 2002, foreign-policy specialist Michael Krepon wrote, were “the most dangerous since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis,” which Arthur Schlesinger described, reasonably, as “the most dangerous moment in human history.” Krepon’s concern was nuclear proliferation in “Iran, Iraq, North Korea and the Indian subcontinent,” an “unstable nuclear-proliferation belt stretching from Pyongyang to Baghdad.” Bush administration initiatives in 2002–2003 have only increased the threats in and near this unstable belt. The National Security Strategy declared that the United States—alone—has the right to carry out “preventive war”: preventive, not preemptive, using military force to eliminate a perceived threat, even if invented or imagined.
North Korea has a deterrent—not nuclear weapons (at the time of writing), but massed artillery at the Demilitarized Zone, aimed at Seoul, the capital of South Korea, and at tens of thousands of American troops just south of the border. The troops are scheduled to be withdrawn, outside of artillery range, arousing concerns in North and South Korea about U.S. intentions. In October 2002, the United States charged that North Korea had secretly begun a program to enrich uranium, in violation of a 1994 agreement. The nuclear brinkmanship since then has reminded some observers of the Cuban Missile Crisis. This year (2003), Washington has taught an ugly lesson to the world: If you want to defend yourself from us, you had better mimic North Korea and pose a credible military threat.1 North Korea also failed a second criterion for a U.S. target: It is one of the poorest and most miserable countries in the world. But North Korea has a geostrategic significance that might make it subject to U.S. attack—if the deterrent can be countered.
Peers, Pirates, and Persuasion: Rhetoric in the Peer-To-Peer Debates by John Logie
1960s counterculture, Berlin Wall, book scanning, cuban missile crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Hacker Ethic, Isaac Newton, Marshall McLuhan, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, peer-to-peer, plutocrats, Plutocrats, pre–internet, publication bias, Richard Stallman, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, search inside the book, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, slashdot, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Whole Earth Catalog
For years, no one was certain how close the two superpowers had come to what was then referred to as a “tactical nuclear exchange.” But a recent conference on the 40th Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis pointed up how real the danger had been. The New York Times’s coverage of the conference contained a harrowing account of the peak of the crisis, in which a Soviet submarine commander, responding to depth charges dropped by an American destroyer, ordered the preparation of the submarine’s nuclear torpedo. The Times report quotes the commander as having said: “Maybe the war has already started up there, while we are doing somersaults here! [. . .] We’re going to blast them now! We will die, but we will sink them all. We will not disgrace our navy!” (Gonzalez) The Cuban Missile Crisis functions as a generally recognized “flashpoint” within the history of the Cold War. It is the point at which the confrontation between the then-extant superpowers was most pitched, most pointed, and potentially, most destructive.
It is the point at which the confrontation between the then-extant superpowers was most pitched, most pointed, and potentially, most destructive. Within the context of the peer-to-peer debates, the showdown between the RIAA and Napster that culminated in the injunction that closed Napster parallels the Cuban Missile Crisis, featuring similarly intransigent parties mixing secret tactical exchanges with aggres- Pa r l orPr e s s 116 wwwww. p a r l or p r e s s . c om Peers, Pirates, and Persuasion sive public posturing. Like the Missile Crisis, the peer-to-peer debate prompted high-level government hearings, with representatives from the parties concerned campaigning to earn comparisons to Adlai Stevenson, who famously unveiled the “smoking gun” photographs of Soviet military installations in Cuba in October 1962 United Nations hearings.
The period immediately following the Napster “crisis,” recalled the pitched period in the 1960s when the U.S. and the Soviet Union heated up the nuclear rhetoric while confining themselves to indirect confrontations via espionage and “little wars” against small nations positioned as emblematic of “the enemy.” Skirmishes between the record industry (and industry-supporting performers) and file-traders became increasingly common, and some of these battles had the jittery energy of the spy culture celebrated in the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis. In 2003, Madonna, fresh from having recorded the theme for the latest installment in the James Bond series, completed an album enti- Pa r l orPr e s s Peer-to-Peer as Combat wwwww. p a r l or p r e s s . c om 119 tled American Life to surround the Bond theme (formally listed on the album as “‘Die Another Day’ from the MGM motion picture Die Another Day”). In coordination with the Warner Music Group, Madonna recorded a profane challenge to downloaders (she snarls “what the fuck do you think you’re doing?”)
America in the World by Robert B. Zoellick
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, banking crisis, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Corn Laws, coronavirus, cuban missile crisis, defense in depth, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, energy security, European colonialism, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, hypertext link, illegal immigration, immigration reform, imperial preference, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, MITM: man-in-the-middle, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, Norbert Wiener, Paul Samuelson, RAND corporation, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transcontinental railway, undersea cable, Vannevar Bush, War on Poverty
For “rotten tooth,” see “Memorandum of Conversation,” FRUS, 1961–1963, vol. 15, Berlin Crisis, 1962–1963, Doc. 135. 53. The literature on the Cuban Missile Crisis is enormous. See, most important, Michael Dobbs, One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War (New York: Knopf, 2008); Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, “One Hell of a Gamble”: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958–1964 (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1997); Mark J. White, Missiles in Cuba (Chicago: Ivan R. Dee, 1997); Max Frankel, High Noon in the Cold War: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Ballantine Books, 2005); Sheldon M. Stern, The Week the World Stood Still: Inside the Secret Cuban Missile Crisis (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2007); Don Munton and David A. Welch, The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Concise History (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007); James G.
Welch, The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Concise History (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007); James G. Hershberg, “The Cuban Missile Crisis,” in The Cambridge History of the Cold War, vol. 2, eds. Melvyn P. Leffler and Odd Arne Westad (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010). The Berlin-Cuba connection is forcefully made by May and Zelikow in Kennedy Tapes, based on JFK’s tapes and recent studies of Soviet sources. Freedman also points to the strategic balance and Berlin in Kennedy’s Wars at 172–73. A growing recognition of the Berlin-Cuba connection is also evident in the differences between the first and second editions of Graham Allison’s classic account. See Graham Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little, Brown, 1971); Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Longman, 1999). 54.
With the gusto of a man in control, the Soviet leader added that “Kennedy is waiting to be pushed to the brink—agreement or war? Of course, he will not want war; he will concede.” In October, Gromyko delivered a matching, but less blunt, message directly to the president about the “rotten tooth” of West Berlin, “which must be pulled out.”52 The Cuban Missile Crisis In October, the threats to Berlin came to a head in an unusual spot—the Caribbean Sea. Although at one time historians studied the Cuban Missile Crisis as a separate event, many now suspect that Khrushchev viewed Berlin as a key, maybe even the major, objective of the plan to put intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Cuba.53 Soviet diplomacy demonstrated that the United States needs to keep in mind its traditional priority of continental security, including the nation’s southern flank, and to recognize the new connections between North America and the projection of power globally.
John F. Kennedy and the Race to the Moon (Palgrave Studies in the History of Science and Technology) by John M. Logsdon
Obviously the Russians were well ahead of us at that time . . . But by 1963, our effort had accelerated considerably. There was a very real chance we were even with the Soviets in this effort. In addition, our relations with the Soviets, following the Cuban missile crisis and the test ban treaty, were much improved—so the President felt that, without harming any of those three goals, we now were in a position to ask the Soviets to join us and make it efficient and economical for both countries.7 T O T H E M O O N T O G E T H E R : P U R S U I T O F A N I L L U S I O N? 177 A New “Strategy of Peace” In the aftermath of the Cuban missile crisis, President Kennedy sought ways of lessening the U.S.-Russian tensions and mistrust that had led to that situation. He first tried to once again engage Nikita Khrushchev in discussions on a test ban treaty, but progress toward that objective was slow.
O’Donnell will not feel it wise to schedule the President’s time and that the President will confirm this judgment.”10 As Webb wrote his October 24 letter, President Kennedy was totally involved with dealing with the problem of Soviet missiles in Cuba, and most certainly was not going to take time to referee the NASA dispute with his science adviser. Webb and Wiesner talked by telephone on October 29, the Monday after the weekend during which the Cuban missile crisis was resolved. Wiesner said that his message to the president would not be to overrule any decision NASA might reach, but rather to be sure that a full and honest assessment had been made of all the options; Wiesner still questioned whether this was the case. Webb told Wiesner he “thought it better not to go to a formal hearing or involve the President personally in the decision,” but Wiesner thought that “involving the President couldn’t be avoided” because someone was sure to ask Kennedy whether the decision was made after the best possible analysis.
Like many communications to the president from government agencies, this letter had been referred to one of the staff agencies of the executive office, in this case BOB, for review and a decision of whether it needed direct presidential attention. Kennedy may well have wondered why he had not heard from Webb after asking him about this possibility on his September tour, and that could have added to his concern about the accuracy of the Time article. Of course, Kennedy had also been immersed with the Cuban missile crisis and the midterm congressional elections in the interim. Budget director Bell prepared a November 13 memorandum on the NASA budget situation that incorporated the schedule and budget estimates in Webb’s October letter; this memorandum was distributed to all participants in the meeting. In his memorandum, Bell identified two policy issues on which presidential guidance was needed: 1. “The pace at which the manned lunar landing should proceed, in view of the budgetary implications and other considerations,” and 2.
Area 51: An Uncensored History of America's Top Secret Military Base by Annie Jacobsen
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, drone strike, Maui Hawaii, mutually assured destruction, operation paperclip, orbital mechanics / astrodynamics, Project Plowshare, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, uranium enrichment, urban sprawl, zero day
Sherman Kent thanked Wheelon for his advice but explained that the board was going to present President Kennedy with the opposite conclusion—that there were no Soviet missiles in Cuba. The Cuban missile crisis is a story of conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union, and the drama that culminated in a ten-day standoff between two superpowers on the brink of thermonuclear war. But it is also the story of two powerful rivals within the American services, the CIA and the U.S. Air Force, and how they set aside historical differences to work together to save the world from near nuclear annihilation. Like so many international crises of the Cold War, the Cuban missile crisis had its link to Area 51—through the U-2. During the crisis, the CIA and the Air Force worked together to conduct the U-2 spy mission that caused the Soviet Union to back down.
They dropped the man through the nose of the wheel well; Captain Ledford followed, delaying opening his own parachute so he could be next to Sergeant Miller when he landed. Miller would be unconscious when he hit the earth, and without Ledford’s help he would likely have broken his back. The medic, not far behind, later recounted how amazing it was that Ledford’s daring and dangerous plan had actually worked. Now, two decades later, at the Cuban missile crisis round table, Ledford showed the same foresight in preempting a potentially deadly situation. The first thing General Ledford did was present the CIA and the Air Force with a shoot-down analysis, detailing the odds for losing a U-2 on another overflight. The chances were one in six, Ledford said. He pushed for the U-2 mission, arguing that it was better to know now if there really were nuclear missiles in Cuba than to wish you knew later on, when it could be too late.
With the fate of the free world at stake, the CIA and the Air Force agreed to work together to solve the crisis. On October 14, an Air Force pilot flying a CIA U-2 brought home film footage of Cuba that the White House needed to see. Photographs showing nuclear missiles supplied by the Soviet Union and set up on missile stands in Cuba. Those eight canisters of film brought back by the CIA’s U-2 set in motion the Cuban missile crisis, bringing the world closer than it had ever come to all-out nuclear war. They would also give the work going on at Area 51 a shot in the arm. The Pentagon told the CIA they wanted the Oxcart operations ready immediately so the aircraft could be used to overfly Cuba. A CIA review of Oxcart, declassified in 2007, said it flatly: “The Oxcart program suddenly assumed greater significance than ever, and its achievement of operational status became one of the highest national priorities.”
Skunk Works: A Personal Memoir of My Years of Lockheed by Ben R. Rich, Leo Janos
Tightened my sphincter for sure. I flew Vietnam missions out of Okinawa as early as 1960. I flew over the Plain of Jars and watched the French get their butts kicked by Uncle Ho. Then, in ’62, the Russians took a few shots at me with SA-2s during the Cuban missile crisis. Didn’t come close thanks to my black box in the tail that jammed effectively. So I’m a believer. But that was inconsequential compared to another blue-suiter U-2 pilot, Major Chuck Maultsby, who was flying out of Alaska on a routine sampling mission right at the height of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. His mission took him over the North Pole in the middle of the night, and when he turned to return to Alaska, he took the wrong south heading and wound up flying deep into Soviet territory. The Russians picked him up right away and thought SAC was coming in the back way to nuke them and start World War III.
Other Voices Buddy Brown I was just a dumb twenty-three-year-old fighter jock, which is exactly what the Air Force was looking for back in 1957. All they told me was “How would you like to fly at very high altitude in a pressure suit?” I immediately thought, Rocket ships! Buck Rogers! Count me in. I was shipped down to Laughlin Air Force Base in Del Rio, Texas, on the Mexican border, way out of sight, which is how the Air Force wanted it, because it wasn’t until the 1962 Cuban missile crisis that the world learned the Air Force was flying U-2s. We had twenty airplanes there and Air Force instructors to check us out, but we had a lot of fatalities. The U-2 was strictly a one-seater. The first time you flew it, you soloed, ready or not. We did a lot of landing pattern and takeoff practicing, and got up to sixty thousand feet to get the feel of our pressure suits. It was a very tricky airplane and we had a lot of fatal pilot errors.
The gliders carried tiny transmitters that fooled the North Vietnamese missile batteries into thinking they were actually B-52 bombers or fighter-bombers. So for $500 a decoy we forced them to launch missiles costing thousands of dollars. Other Voices James R. Schlesinger (Director of the CIA 1973; Secretary of Defense from 1973 to 1975) As secretary of defense, I confronted my own version of a Cuban missile crisis scenario in the mid-1970s, when I suddenly found myself under enormous political pressure and the U-2 came to my rescue and bailed me out. This happened during the Ford administration, in the spring of 1975, a period during which the Soviets were aggressively establishing bases and influence in northeastern Africa, in places like Somalia, Angola, and Uganda. Henry Kissinger, then secretary of state, was pushing aggressively for detente with the Soviets.
The Hacker and the State: Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics by Ben Buchanan
active measures, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, borderless world, Brian Krebs, British Empire, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, credit crunch, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, family office, hive mind, Internet Archive, Jacob Appelbaum, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, kremlinology, MITM: man-in-the-middle, Nate Silver, profit motive, RAND corporation, ransomware, risk tolerance, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, Stuxnet, technoutopianism, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, WikiLeaks, zero day
The importance of signaling resonated in the highest levels of government. Some senior foreign policy decision-makers fancied themselves Kremlinologists who could interpret the signals of Soviet leaders and deduce how best to respond. Presidents and premiers signaled to each other, too: the most iconic moments of statecraft in the Cold War were Kennedy and Khrushchev’s battle of wills in the Cuban Missile Crisis and Reagan and Gorbachev’s tense negotiations at Reykjavik. Thousands of history books give weight to this kind of statecraft.8 Many scholars ignored how clandestine activities subtly shaped the global environment. These operations were hard to spot and harder still to study, but they mattered. A few American policymakers argued early on that aggressive shaping needed more attention. The famed diplomat George Kennan wrote in 1948 that American policymakers hewed too blindly to an overly simplistic worldview, in which times of war were neatly separated from times of peace, failing to “recognize the realities of international relations—the perpetual rhythm of struggle, in and out of war.”9 Kennan suggested that the inevitable conflict between states’ divergent interests would lead to a constant competition for advantage—a vision that proved prescient.
Soviet military planners wrote extensively about the practice of maskirovka, or “little masquerade”—multifaceted deception campaigns to mislead the enemy’s political and military leadership.10 While it is true that the adversary sometimes spotted these efforts, they were not designed to act as geopolitical signals and compel a change in behavior by threatening harm. They were operational and strategic tricks meant to gain an edge. Without maskirovka, the Cuban Missile Crisis with all its drama and signaling would not have unfolded as it did. Deception helped get the missiles to Cuba. The Soviets began with code-names that made it seem to anyone listening to their communications as if the missiles were bound for the Bering Sea. When the time came to load the ships that would instead travel to Cuba, the Soviets covered the missiles in farm equipment to fool observers, and in metal sheets to block infrared photography.
There are four reasons for this. First, visibility enhances signaling, but cyber capabilities often benefit from or require secrecy. For decades, canonical international relations scholarship and policymaking has focused on those activities that all can see. Presidential summits and international diplomacy are fixtures in the minds of scholars and the public. Widely examined cases such as the Cuban Missile Crisis center on the capacity of leaders to walk up to—and then back from—the geopolitical brink in a way that shows resolve, benefits their own interests, and ultimately averts a war. For decades, this has been the art of modern statecraft. Conventional military activities are often far more oriented toward visible signaling than toward direct combat. There is a repertoire of American military action that is effective because it is visible but does not directly harm an adversary.
How Democracy Ends by David Runciman
barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, centre right, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dominic Cummings, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, first-past-the-post, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, Internet of things, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, loss aversion, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, Norman Mailer, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Peter Thiel, quantitative easing, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Steven Pinker, The Wisdom of Crowds, Travis Kalanick, universal basic income, Yogi Berra
The anti-nuclear lobby could match the environmental movement for scale and scope. In the UK the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) had more than two million members at its peak, making it one of the largest civil society organisations in Europe. Mass participation coincided with the ratcheting up of nuclear tensions between the superpowers – it happened in the early 1960s, at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and again in the early 1980s, when the Reagan administration was trying to win the arms race. It hasn’t happened since. Today, CND is a shell of what it was, with only a few thousand members and almost no public profile. The irony is that one of its most committed supporters, Jeremy Corbyn, was elected leader of the Labour Party in 2015 and could yet find himself as British prime minister.
That is always the basic question of representative democracy: what do we think about these people deciding for us? It doesn’t matter so much what is at stake. It could be a question of nuclear apocalypse or it could be a question of the price of bread. In October 1962, between the publication of ‘Silent Spring’ and ‘Eichmann in Jerusalem’, the world came as close as it ever has to nuclear catastrophe. During the thirteen days of the Cuban Missile Crisis the two nuclear superpowers looked set to unleash the unimaginable. As the climax approached, with Russian and American ships apparently set on a collision course, the fate of human civilisation hung in the balance. At the last, Kennedy and Khrushchev found a path back from the edge of the abyss, through a mixture of skill and luck. Ten days after that, the American voting public was given the chance to pass a verdict on its epic good fortune in the mid-term elections for Congress.
., 12, 55 C Cambridge Analytica (firm), 156, 157, 159 capitalism, 196, 199 Carson, Rachel, 85, 87–8 Silent Spring, 82–3, 89, 90–91, 93 catastrophes, 6, 7, 85–6 environmental, 82–3, 85, 87–93; see also climate change nuclear, 83–4, 97 total, 100 Chicago: violence, 211 China and climate change, 174 Communist Party, 172–3 economy, 172, 208 foreign policy, 30–31 government model, 174 as a meritocracy, 175–6 nationalism, 172 pollution, 89 view of Trump, 173 Churchill, Winston, 8, 75–6, 168–9, 177 civil service, 41, 55–6; see also bureaucracies Clark, Christopher: The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914, 115 Clemenceau, Georges, 71, 75–6 climate change, 90–93 China and, 174 consciousness raising, 89, 92–93 conspiracy theories, 91–92 incremental nature of, 97 and risk, 101 support for, 108 and uncertainty, 96 see also global warming Clinton, President Bill, 54–5 Clinton, Hillary, 13–15, 16, 198 Cold War, 28–9, 67, 94, 95–6, 106–7, 108–9 communism 194; see also China: Communist Party; Marxism-Leninism; Stalinism consciousness raising, 85, 89, 92–3, 106 conspiracy theories, 60–71 climate change, 91–2 and division, 99 and fake news, 75 France, 69 India, 65–6 nuclear weapons, 96 Poland, 65, 66 and totalitarianism, 98 Turkey, 65, 66 United Kingdom, 62–3 United States, 62, 64–5, 67 and war, 77 conspiracy theorists, 153 Constantine I, king of Greece, 27, 28 consumerism, 166 Corbyn, Jeremy, 58, 94–5, 148–9, 150, 209 corporations, 129–32, 139, 166 coups, 3, 217 Algeria, 41–3 and catastrophes, 85 and clarity, 59 and conspiracies, 7, 60 and counter-coups, 56–7 Cyprus, 33, 38–9 economic conditions for, 31 in fiction, 57–8 Greece, 26–30, 27, 32, 33, 34–5, 38, 40, 45 Luttwak on, 41–2, 46 Turkey, 50–52, 53, 66 varieties of, 44–5 election-day vote fraud, 44 executive, 44 executive aggrandisement, 44, 52, 55 promissory, 44, 47, 50–51 strategic election manipulation, 44 Zimbabwe, 48 crises, 5–6 Cuban missile Crisis (1962), 107–8 mid-life, 5, 8, 169, 218 Cummings, Dominic, 179 currencies, 135 digital, 136 Cyprus: coups, 33, 38–9 D databases, 123 de Gaulle, General Charles, 41, 42 de Tocqueville, Alexis, 142, 187 death, 23–4, 204, 216–17 democracy appeal of, 6, 169–71 audience, 47, 117 direct, 35, 48, 143, 161, 162, 163 failure of, 50 obsolescence, 167–8 plebiscitary, 47 spectator, 47 spread of, 3 strong and weak, 59–60 threats to 6–7, 53–4, 108, 112; see also coups digital revolution, 152, 164, 200–201, 215, 219 dignity collective, 172, 173, 177 and elections, 170, 177 and loss, 175 disruption, 198–9 Dorsey, Jack, 137 Dreyfus, Alfred, 69 dystopias, 90–91, 113, 114, 118–19, 126, 220 E East India Company, 130–31 economic growth, 172, 192 accelerationists and, 200 and populism, 192 United States, 175 Western Europe, 175 Economist (journal), 133 Edgerton, David, 122 education, 109–10, 163–4, 183–4, 185 Eggers, David: The Circle, 139, 140, 141–2, 144 Egypt, 48–50 Eichmann, Adolf, 84, 85–6 elections 4, 218 and advertising, 158–9 computers and, 125 and coups, 44, 45 decision-making process, 188–9 and dignity, 170, 177 and disinformation, 156–7 Egypt, 48–9 France, 148 fraud, 44 Greece, 28, 29, 39, 40, 148 Italy, 148 manipulation of, 44 Netherlands, 148 online, 162 Turkey, 51 United Kingdom, 95 United States see under United States see also vote, right to elites, 75 and climate change, 91–2 corporate, 139 and nuclear disarmament, 95 and populism, 65 power of, 61 see also wealth environmentalists, 200 epistocracy, 178–9, 180, 181–8, 191, 205 equality, 202–3; see also inequality Erdogan, President Recep, 51–3, 66, 149, 213 Estlund, David: Democratic Authority, 185 Ethiopia, 154–5 European Central Bank (ECB), 33, 39, 116–17 European Union (EU) and corporations, 132 and Greece, 30, 32, 116–17 executive aggrandisement, 45–6 military, 55, 56 United States presidents, 92 experts see epistocracy; technocracy ExxonMobil, 92 F Facebook, 131, 132–3, 134–5, 136, 138–9, 140, 141, 145, 150, 157 fascism, 169 financial crash (2008), 79, 110, 116 Forster, E.
Prisoner's Dilemma: John Von Neumann, Game Theory, and the Puzzle of the Bomb by William Poundstone
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, cuban missile crisis, Douglas Hofstadter, Frank Gehry, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, Jacquard loom, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, RAND corporation, Richard Feynman, statistical model, the market place, zero-sum game
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior Cake Division Rational Players Games as Trees Games as Tables Zero-Sum Games Minimax and Cake Mixed Strategies Curve Balls and Deadly Genes The Minimax Theorem N-Person Games 4 THE BOMB Von Neumann at Los Alamos Game Theory in Wartime Bertrand Russell World Government Operation Crossroads The Computer Preventive War 5 THE RAND CORPORATION History Thinking About the Unthinkable Surfing, Semantics, Finnish Phonology Von Neumann at RAND John Nash The Monday-Morning Quarterback 6 PRISONER’S DILEMMA The Buick Sale Honor Among Thieves The Flood-Dresher Experiment Tucker’s Anecdote Common Sense Prisoner’s Dilemmas in Literature Free Rider Nuclear Rivalry 7 1950 The Soviet Bomb The Man from Mars Urey’s Speech The Fuchs Affair The Korean War The Nature of Technical Surprise Aggressors for Peace Francis Matthews Aftermath Public Reaction Was It a Trial Balloon? The MacArthur Speech Orvil Anderson Press Reaction How Many Bombs? Coda 8 GAME THEORY AND ITS DISCONTENTS Criticism of Game Theory Utility and Machiavelli Are People Rational? The Ohio State Studies 9 VON NEUMANN’S LAST YEARS The H-Bomb A Very Fine Tiger The Commissioner The Moment of Hope Illness Death 10 CHICKEN AND THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS Chicken Volunteer’s Dilemma Volunteer’s Dilemma Experiments The Cuban Missile Crisis The Madman Theory 11 MORE ON SOCIAL DILEMMAS Deadlock Stag Hunt Asymmetric Games Justifying Cooperation Howard’s Meta-Game Backward Induction Paradox 12 SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST Stable Strategies Is Defection in the Genes? Robert Axelrod TIT FOR TAT The Trouble With TIT FOR TAT Artificial Selection The Fish in the Mirror Cooperation and Civilization TIT FOR TAT in the Real World 13 THE DOLLAR AUCTION Escalation Shubik’s Dollar Auction Dollar Auctions in Real Life Strategies Rational Bidding Where Game Theory Fails The Largest-Number Game Feather in a Vacuum Bibliography About the Author Copyright 1 DILEMMAS A man was crossing a river with his wife and mother.
As is often the case with satire, a number of models have been suggested (especially Werner von Braun and Edward Teller), and there is no reason to think the character was based on any specific individual. The screenplay by Kubrick, Peter George, and Terry Southern was loosely based on George’s novel Red Alert. Peter Sellers, who played Strangelove, said in interviews that he based his portrayal on observations of Henry Kissinger. The wavy hair and glasses resemble Kissinger, not the balding von Neumann. 10 CHICKEN AND THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS In late 1950 the Cambridge University Labour Club passed a resolution censoring its own president, Bertrand Russell. The resolution criticized Russell sharply for his advocacy of a nuclear war against the Soviet Union. Russell responded curtly, “I have never advocated a preventive war, as your members would know if they took the trouble to ascertain facts.” This was the first in a long string of denials that continued for most of the decade.
A lot of people enter contests without paying much attention to the rules, and there may have been some “naive” entrants asking for $100 in addition to the “premeditated” defectors. One defector quoted Blanche DuBois: “I’ve always depended on the kindness of strangers.” A total of $1,610,860 was requested. Had everyone who entered asked for $20, the payout would have been $670,220. The maximum that 33,511 people could have won, assuming that just under 20 percent asked for $100, is $1,206,380. THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS The Kennedy administration was receptive to the RAND Corporation’s circle of strategists. Herman Kahn and Daniel Ellsberg (who later came to public attention for his role in releasing the Pentagon Papers) championed the notion that U.S.-Soviet conflicts were chicken dilemmas. Why? By the early 1960s, leaders of both nations agreed that a nuclear war was the worst possible outcome of any situation.
A Fiery Peace in a Cold War: Bernard Schriever and the Ultimate Weapon by Neil Sheehan
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Charles Lindbergh, cuban missile crisis, double helix, European colonialism, John von Neumann, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Norman Macrae, nuclear winter, operation paperclip, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, undersea cable, uranium enrichment
Chapters 72–77: Neufeld, Ballistic Missiles in the United States Air Force, 1945–1960; Heppenheimer’s Countdown; Zubok and Pleshakov, Inside the Kremlin’s Cold War; Taubman’s Khrushchev; Robert Kennedy’s 1968 Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis; Fred Kaplan’s 1983 The Wizards of Armageddon; Anatoly Dobrynin’s 1995 In Confidence; Aleksandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali’s 1997 One Hell of a Gamble: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958–1964; The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Ernest May and Philip Zelikow’s 1997 editing of the tapes of the White House meetings during the crisis; Max Frankel’s 2004 High Noon in the Cold War: Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Cuban Missile Crisis; Fursenko and Naftali’s 2006 Khrushchev’s Cold War; Michael Dobbs’s 2008 One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War; the official SAC history, The Development of Strategic Air Command; Wynn’s RAF Nuclear Deterrent Forces.
William Taubman, the Amherst College scholar whose splendid biography of Khrushchev won him a Pulitzer Prize, says there was nothing left to put in a coffin. All that remained of Nedelin, he writes, was “a marshal’s shoulder strap and half-melted keys to his office safe.” The calamity did not stop test launches of the R-16 and the ICBM was deployed in 1962. The Soviets were, however, still having trouble with the weapon in October 1962 when the Cuban Missile Crisis occurred and Khrushchev had a total of twenty operational ICBMs to the 160 Kennedy possessed. Preparations to fire the R-16 continued to require several hours rather than the thirty minutes Yangel had posited and that was eventually achieved. “Before we get it ready to launch,” Kirill Moskalenko, a ranking Red Army marshal and friend of Khrushchev from Second World War days, warned in the midst of the crisis, “there won’t even be a wet spot left of any of us.” 66.
From previous aerial photos of R-12 sites in Russia, the CIA photo interpreters knew exactly what they were looking at. Kennedy, who had been out of town, got the news on the morning of the 16th, when he was shown the photographs at the White House and they were interpreted for him. “He can’t do that to me!” he exclaimed in his rage at Khrushchev. According to Max Frankel in his first-rate account of the drama, High Noon in the Cold War: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Cuban Missile Crisis, Robert Kennedy’s reaction was more earthy. “Oh shit! shit! shit! Those sons of bitches Russians.” The president quickly got his anger against Khrushchev under control. He was also able to put himself in Khrushchev’s place and see the situation from the Soviet leader’s perspective. In the opening sessions of the ad hoc Executive Committee of the National Security Council, or ExCom as it came to be known, which he convened in secret session, he said it was clear that the sixteen Jupiters in Turkey would have to be one of the bargaining chips in any deal they made with the Soviet dictator to lever his missiles out of Cuba.
The Road Not Taken: Edward Lansdale and the American Tragedy in Vietnam by Max Boot
American ideology, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Charles Lindbergh, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, desegregation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, drone strike, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Golden Gate Park, jitney, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, Potemkin village, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, War on Poverty, white picket fence, Works Progress Administration
CREST: CIA Records Search Tool. JFKARB: JFK Assassination Review Board, Part I: Kennedy Administration Policy toward Cuba. RG 84: State Department. RG 226: OSS. RG 263: CIA. RG 330: Secretary of Defense. RG 541: Kennedy Assassination Records Review Board. NSA: National Security Archives, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. CMC: Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962. EGL: EGL Papers. EGL/SMM: Saigon Military Mission report. RGD: Raymond Garthoff Donation Relating to the Cuban Missile Crisis. NWC: Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island. EGL: EGL Interview. RASP: Raymond A. Spruance Papers. NYP: New York Public Library, New York, New York. ASP: Arthur Schlesinger Jr. Papers. PCLPP: Peter and Carolyn Lansdale Personal Papers, Ponte Verde Beach, Florida. PYPP: Patricia Yi Personal Papers, McLean, Virginia.
“Those were my sentiments exactly,” Helms drily noted. Although Kennedy proceeded with the previously scheduled Mongoose meeting that afternoon, it was obvious that Lansdale’s project would have to wait while the president and his advisers tried to figure out how to avert Armageddon.92 JOHN F. KENNEDY has been applauded by historians for his coolness under pressure during what became known as the Cuban Missile Crisis. The president wisely rejected advice from the Joint Chiefs of Staff and his more hard-line civilian advisers in the NSC’s ExComm (Executive Committee), including Robert McNamara and Robert Kennedy, to undertake military action against Cuba. The president rightly called this option “one hell of a gamble.”93 Unbeknownst to the CIA, the Soviets had already shipped tactical nuclear weapons to Cuba, along with 42,000 Red Army troops, and given their commanders authority to launch the weapons in the event of an American assault.94 An American attack on Cuba could have precipitated World War III, which is why the attorney general and the defense secretary later adjusted their recollections to excise their hawkish proposals.
Castro later said, “Six months before these missiles were installed in Cuba, we had received an accumulation of information that a new invasion was being prepared under the sponsorship of the Central Intelligence Agency.”96 “It was clear to me,” Khrushchev said, “that we might very well lose Cuba if we didn’t take some decisive steps in her defense.”97 Although Mongoose helped to precipitate the Cuban Missile Crisis, it also made possible its peaceful resolution by providing the intelligence that allowed Kennedy to act before the Soviet missiles were operational. “That’s the only decent thing Mongoose ever did . . . because we turned it into a decent collection operation,” concluded the CIA officer Sam Halpern.98 OPERATION MONGOOSE was not revived after the end of the crisis. On January 4, 1963, McGeorge Bundy wrote to President Kennedy, “There is well-nigh universal agreement that Mongoose is at a dead end.” 99 Efforts to overthrow Castro resumed shortly thereafter, with Bobby Kennedy as eager as ever to topple the Cuban strongman, but Lansdale was no longer in charge.
Project Azorian: The CIA and the Raising of the K-129 by Norman Polmar, Michael White
Baker III, from Cold War Submarines) The next-generation Soviet SSBN would not appear until the late 1960s, when the effects of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 led to a further acceleration of Soviet nuclear strike forces. The first Project 667A/Yankee was completed in 1967 with large-scale production following. The older, far-less-capable Golf SSB and Hotel SSBN missile submarines continued to have a role. As Yankee SSBNs became available, the older missile submarines were employed as theater nuclear strike platforms and some were employed as missile test platforms, or were converted to communication relay ships. However, the Golf-class submarines had important political-military roles. Following the Cuban missile crisis in the fall of 1962 that brought the United States and Soviet Union closer to nuclear conflict than at any other time during the Cold War, the Soviet government agreed not to introduce nuclear weapons into Cuba.
Periodically during the Cold War the U.S. Navy believed that the Soviets were working on just such a breakthrough in anti-submarine warfare. The early 1960s were violent, with several confrontations between the Soviet Union and the United States: the shootdown of a U-2 spyplane over the USSR in 1960, the Berlin crisis of 1961 that saw U.S. and Soviet tanks facing off, the nuclear confrontation during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, the ongoing Vietnam War with Soviet weapons (including jet fighters) being supplied to the forces fighting the United States, and the North Korean capture of the U.S. spy ship Pueblo in January 1968, an act that many Americans believed was encouraged if not directly supported by the Soviet Union. Thus, there was some Soviet concern that the loss of the K-129 could be a harbinger of some new American anti-submarine capability, with such an attack being completely believable with the U.S.
James Brigade (submarine) Brooks, William burial of Soviet sailors Burke, Les Cannon, Charles capture vehicle characteristics failure maraging steel problem mated with lift ship operation of Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and Azorian revelation history of Project Azorian–64, 69, 74–75, 85, 87, 110, 123 plans recovery of K-129 Chazhma (Soviet AGI) Chistyakov, Rear Adm. N. B. Cluster Lance system Cohen, Jerry Colby, William E. conspiracies related to K-129 related to Scorpion Coordinated Equipment Co. Corona satellite Craven, Dr. John purpose of Azorian rogue submarine theory Crooke, Curtis Cuban missile crisis Cuss I (drill ship) Daniel Boone (SSBN 629) Davis, Ed de Poix, Vice Adm. Vincent Deep Submergence Systems Project (DSSP) Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Divisions (submarine) 10th 16th 26th 29th 45th Dmitry Pozharsky (Soviet CL) Dobrynin, Anatoly Drabos, James Drake, Bob Drew, Christopher DuBridge, Lee Dunham, Roger Dygalo, Rear Adm. V. A. aboard K-129 commands B-67 conspiracy theories protests K-129 assignment search for the K-129 Echo II (Soviet SSGN) Eisenhower, Gen.
Upheaval: Turning Points for Nations in Crisis by Jared Diamond
anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, British Empire, California gold rush, clean water, correlation coefficient, cuban missile crisis, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Gini coefficient, illegal immigration, interchangeable parts, invention of writing, Jeff Bezos, medical malpractice, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, post-work, purchasing power parity, rising living standards, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, The Spirit Level, traffic fines, transcontinental railway, women in the workforce, World Values Survey
The prime example is the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when the low opinion that the Soviet premier Khrushchev formed of U.S. President Kennedy at their 1961 Vienna meeting led Khrushchev to miscalculate that he could get away with installing Soviet missiles in Cuba. When the U.S. did detect the missiles, U.S. generals urged Kennedy to destroy them immediately (posing the risk of Soviet retaliation), and warned Kennedy that he risked being impeached if he did not do so. Fortunately, Kennedy chose less drastic means of responding, Khrushchev also responded less drastically, and Armageddon was averted. But it was a very close call, as became clear only later, when both sides released documents about their activities then. For example, on the first day of the week-long Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy announced publicly that any launch of a Soviet missile from Cuba would require “a full retaliatory response [of the U.S.] upon the Soviet Union.”
Subsequent to the crisis, the gradual release of formerly classified information by both the U.S. and the Soviet Union made clear that we had been even closer to destruction than had been appreciated at the time. Unbeknownst to America’s military leaders then, who knew that at least 162 missiles had already been stationed in Cuba but who thought that the missiles’ nuclear warheads had not yet arrived, many of the warheads had actually already reached Cuba. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviet Union responded by accelerating its programs to develop more powerful nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The U.S. responded with the determination that never again would it tolerate the installation of a communist government in the Western Hemisphere. Any American president who failed to prevent such an installation would have been immediately impeached and removed from office for gross neglect of American interests, just as President Kennedy was warned that he would be impeached if he failed to get Soviet missiles out of Cuba.
We increasingly hear claims that the 21st century will become an Asian century—specifically, a Chinese century. I agree that these concerns cannot be lightly dismissed. On the one hand, throughout my life, in each decade there have been reasons to consider that particular decade as posing the toughest problems that we Americans have ever faced—whether it was the 1940’s with World War Two against Japan and Nazi Germany, the 1950’s with the Cold War, the 1960’s with the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Vietnam War that lacerated American society, and so on. But even when I tell myself that we should be suspicious because every decade has seemed at the time to be the one offering the most cause for anxiety, I still have to agree: the current decade of the 2010’s really is the one offering the most cause for anxiety. Hence it seems appropriate, after the previous chapter discussing what lies ahead for Japan, to consider in this chapter and the next one (Chapter 10) what lies ahead for the U.S.
The Pentagon's Brain: An Uncensored History of DARPA, America's Top-Secret Military Research Agency by Annie Jacobsen
Albert Einstein, Berlin Wall, colonial rule, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Fall of the Berlin Wall, game design, John Markoff, John von Neumann, license plate recognition, Livingstone, I presume, low earth orbit, megacity, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, Murray Gell-Mann, mutually assured destruction, Norman Mailer, operation paperclip, place-making, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, social intelligence, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, zero-sum game
And yet new information from ARPA’s history has recently come to light that paints an even more dramatic Cuban Missile Crisis than was previously understood. “Guess how many nuclear missiles were detonated during the Cuban Missile Crisis?” asks Paul Kozemchak, special assistant to DARPA director Arati Prabhakar, during an interview for this book. Kozemchak is a thirty-year veteran of DARPA, which makes him the longest-serving employee in its history. “I can tell you that the answer is not ‘none,’” said Kozemchak. “The answer is ‘several.’” In this case, “several” refers to four. By the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Eisenhower’s test ban had failed, and the United States and the Soviet Union had both returned to nuclear weapons testing. Twice during the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, on October 20 and October 26, 1962, the United States detonated two nuclear weapons—code-named Checkmate and Bluegill Triple Prime—in space.
“The Soviets fired three eleven-hundred-mile missiles yesterday at Kapustin Yar,” McNamara tells them, one of which contained a 300-kiloton nuclear warhead. “They were testing elements of an antimissile system in a nuclear burst environment.” It is hard to determine what is more shocking, that this information, which was made public by Russian scientists in the early 1990s, is not generally known, or that four nuclear weapons were detonated in space, in a DEFCON 2 environment, during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Firing off nuclear weapons in the middle of a nuclear standoff is tempting fate. The BMEWS system, at J-Site in Thule, could easily have misidentified the Soviet missile launches as a nuclear first strike. “The danger of the situation simply getting out of control, from developments or accidents or incidents that neither side—leaders on either side—were even aware of, much less in control of, could have led to war,” says the former CIA officer Dr.
The information about the Soviet high-altitude nuclear tests remained classified until after the Berlin Wall came down. The Soviet nuclear weapon detonated on October 28, 1962, over Zhezqazghan in Kazakhstan at an altitude of ninety-three miles had a consequential effect. According to Russian scientists, “the nuclear detonation caused an electromagnetic pulse [EMP] that covered all of Kazakhstan,” including “electrical cables buried underground.” The Cuban Missile Crisis made clear that command and control systems not only needed to be upgraded but also needed to be reimagined. It was J. C. R. Licklider who first challenged his ARPA colleagues to rethink old ideas about what computers could do beyond mathematical tasks like payroll and accounting. Licklider proposed the development of a vast multiuser system, a “network” of computers that could collect information across multiple platforms—from radar and satellites to intelligence reports, communication cables, even weather reports—and to integrate them.
Licence to be Bad by Jonathan Aldred
"Robert Solow", Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, Ayatollah Khomeini, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Snowden, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, feminist movement, framing effect, Frederick Winslow Taylor, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, full employment, George Akerlof, glass ceiling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Long Term Capital Management, Louis Bachelier, mandelbrot fractal, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mont Pelerin Society, mutually assured destruction, Myron Scholes, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, nudge unit, obamacare, offshore financial centre, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, plutocrats, Plutocrats, positional goods, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, spectrum auction, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, Vilfredo Pareto, wealth creators, zero-sum game
But when the game is played by eminent statesmen … it is thought that the statesmen on one side are displaying a high degree of wisdom and courage, and only the statesmen on the other side are reprehensible.14 In any case, Chicken was not a helpful bit of game-theoretic analysis, because it has two Nash equilibria, the first being ‘your opponent does not swerve, you do’ and the second being ‘you do not swerve, your opponent does’. Game theory here makes no prediction about what will happen, or what should. The importance of this limitation was clear in the context of the Cuban Missile Crisis two years later when, in October 1962, both the US and the USSR refused to back down in their confrontation over the placing of Russian nuclear missiles on Cuba. It was obvious to both sides that Chicken was the game being played. However, what they both wanted to know was: which Nash equilibrium? In other words, who would swerve first? A mistake could mean annihilation. Most historians agree that the world has never come closer to full-scale nuclear war than during the Cuban crisis.
He discovered that, astonishingly, there was no means of speedy, reliable communication with the Kremlin: ‘I could direct dial my mother three thousand miles away to wish her happy birthday [but] Kennedy had no way to get in touch with Khrushchev.’22 Schelling persuaded President Kennedy to install what became known as ‘the hotline’ to solve the problem. With this single, simple act, Schelling may have made more difference to humanity than all the other thinkers in this book put together – although, with disturbing hindsight, the hotline was not fully operational until after the nuclear near-miss that was the Cuban Missile Crisis. It took until 1963 to persuade Soviet diplomats that the hotline was their idea, and to get special Cyrillic teletypewriters installed in the White House. As for Schelling’s economics, much of his work has a realism missing from Gary Becker’s world. Like Becker, Schelling studied discrimination. But Schelling was more interested in how discrimination spreads. One evening he played around moving coins on a black-and-white checkerboard according to simple rules.
Ellsberg himself made it easier for them to do so, because his mercurial mind had already moved on to other things. By the time ‘Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms’ was published, Ellsberg was a consultant to the US Defense Department and the White House. In 1961 he drafted the guidance to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the operational plans for general nuclear war; the following year, unsurprisingly, saw him preoccupied with the Cuban Missile Crisis. As for promoting his ideas in academic circles, Ellsberg had effectively gone AWOL. He had, in one way or another, become obsessed with the Vietnam War. After working on plans to escalate US involvement in Vietnam, Ellsberg spent two years in Saigon, and then returned to RAND to work on a top-secret review of US decision-making regarding Vietnam. Then it happened. Ellsberg switched from hawk to whistle-blower.
The Secret World: A History of Intelligence by Christopher Andrew
active measures, Admiral Zheng, airport security, anti-communist, Atahualpa, Ayatollah Khomeini, British Empire, Chelsea Manning, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Etonian, Fellow of the Royal Society, Francisco Pizarro, Google Earth, invention of movable type, invention of the telegraph, Julian Assange, Khyber Pass, Mahatma Gandhi, Mikhail Gorbachev, Murano, Venice glass, RAND corporation, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, Skype, South Sea Bubble, spice trade, the market place, trade route, union organizing, uranium enrichment, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, WikiLeaks, éminence grise
The U-2 missions, wrote Eisenhower, ‘provided proof that the horrors of the alleged “bomber gap” and “missile gap” were nothing more than the imaginative creations of irresponsibility’.50 Without the IMINT revolution, US policy towards the Soviet Union would doubtless have continued to be confused by other destabilizing myths about the extent of Soviet nuclear capability. The course of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis would also have been quite different. But for IMINT from U-2s (whose interpretation owed much to top-secret documents supplied by a British–American agent in the GRU, Oleg Penkovsky),* Khrushchev would almost certainly have achieved his ambition of concealing the construction of the missile bases until they were fully operational. The option of declaring a US naval ‘quarantine’ (blockade) around Cuba in the hope of preventing the delivery of the material necessary to complete the bases would thus not have existed.
Because of problems in communicating with the submarines, their commanders had authority to fire the torpedoes without authorization from Moscow. When the US fleet began dropping practice depth charges in an attempt to force the Soviet Foxtrot-class submarine B59 to come to the surface for identification, the submarine captain wanted to launch a nuclear torpedo. He would have done so but for the presence on board of the flotilla commander, who refused to permit the launch.52 After the Cuban Missile Crisis, the intelligence available to both East and West on the extent and deployment of their opponents’ nuclear strike force became an essential element in stabilizing the Cold War. According to Robert Gates, whose quarter-century career in the CIA and the White House staff culminated in his appointment as DCI from 1991 to 1993: The great continuing strength and success of the analysts of CIA and the intelligence community was in describing with amazing accuracy from the late 1960s until the Soviet collapse the actual military strength and capabilities of the Soviet Union . . .
By contrast, leading NATO members on both sides of the Atlantic believed the end of the Cold War would produce a ‘peace dividend’ by enabling them to cut back their intelligence services as well as their armed forces. In the spring of 1992 President George H. W. Bush was widely expected to win a second term at the November elections and to take a personal interest in post-Cold War changes to the intelligence community. The American intelligence community had greater confidence in Bush than in any President for the previous generation. The US triumph in the Cuban Missile Crisis and the phenomenal technological achievements of American spy satellites and SIGINT collection (known in much greater detail to the White House than to the public) had given Cold War presidents inflated expectations of what their intelligence communities could achieve. ‘Of all the presidents I worked for [from 1968 to 1993]’, recalls Robert Gates, ‘only [George H. W.] Bush did not have exaggerated expectations of intelligence.’30 Lacking a long-term understanding of the role of intelligence, most of Bush’s predecessors had, at best, a confused understanding of the crucial distinction between intelligence ‘secrets’ and ‘mysteries’.
A Short History of Progress by Ronald Wright
Albert Einstein, Atahualpa, Bretton Woods, British Empire, clean water, Columbian Exchange, cuban missile crisis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Haber-Bosch Process, Hernando de Soto, invention of agriculture, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, nuclear winter, out of africa, Parkinson's law, Ronald Reagan, Thomas Malthus, urban sprawl
No doubt many will say that we stand here to prove those gloomy Victorians wrong. But do we? They may have been wrong on the details they imagined for our times, but they were right to foresee trouble. Just ahead lay the Great War and 12 million dead,42 the Russian Revolution, the Great Slump — leading to Hitler, the death camps, the Second World War (with 50 million dead), the atom bomb. And these in turn to the Korean War, the Cold War, the near-fatal Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam, Cambodia, Rwanda. Even the most pessimistic Victorian might have been surprised to learn that the twentieth century would slaughter more than 100 million in its wars — twice the entire population of the Roman Empire.43 The price of history does indeed go up. The Victorian scientific romances had two modern descendants: mainstream science fiction, and profound social satire set in nightmare futures.
Rees is especially worried by potential rogue technologies, such as bioengineering, nanotechnology, cybernetics, and certain “doomsday” experiments on the frontiers of physics. As an astronomer, he advocates establishing a small human colony in space as soon as possible, to give intelligent life a second chance if things go wrong. But if we ruin the earth, are we intelligent? And why should we deserve another chance? 55. Declassification of American and Soviet sources from the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and statements by those involved, show that the world came much closer to nuclear war than had been thought. Robert McNamara, then U.S. defence secretary, has written “we came within a hairbreadth without realising it.” See ibid., pp. 25–28. 56. Following controversial legal rulings in the United States, biotech and agribusiness companies have taken out patents on crops (and even animals) they claim to have “invented.”
See also progress traps violence, 33–34, 71–73, 126, 139n5, 140n6 worldwide, 55–56 classes, 33, 56, 63–64, 71, 108, 109 climate change, 23, 37–38, 51–53, 125, 130, 148n53, 182n53 Cold War, 121, 133n7, 181n50 collapse of civilization, 8, 92–93 literary portrayals, 119–20, 122–23 natural or social, 56, 84 scientists’ warnings, 125–26, 181n52 three aspects, 107–8, 128 typical behaviour before, 129 worldwide, 125, 181n52 colonialism, 33, 139n5 communism, 124 Coningsby (Disraeli), 119 consumption and reserves, 148n52 Cook, James (Captain Cook), 58, 62 Copan, 98, 100, 101, 169n66 Cortés, Hernando, 51 “cosmic bombshells,” 139n2 Critias (Plato), 87–88 Cro-Magnons, 18, 20–22, 23–24, 26, 36, 37, 38, 66, 137n31, 137n35 genetic studies, 21, 137n32 and Neanderthals, see Neanderthals crops, 42, 44, 47, 114, 144n30, 144n31, 144n33, 152n22 failures, 130 see also farming; food production Crosby, Alfred, 130 Cuban Missile Crisis, 121, 182n55 cultures adaptations, 29–30 dangers, 30 defined, 32–33 outrunning evolution, 35 transmissible through speech, 13 cuneiform script, 65 Curie, Marie, 12 Darwin, Charles, 11, 12 Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (Gibbon), 85–86 democracy, 6 “deregulation,” 127, 184n63 Descent of Man (Darwin), 12 Devil, 49, 147n46 Dickens, Charles, 119 dinosaurs, extinction, 31, 139n2 disease of twentieth century, 122, 123, 180n44 future concern, 130 Old World, in America, 112, 113, 116–17, 173n10, 173n11 dogs, 43 domestication, 33, 149n1 animals, 43–44 plants, 42, 44, 47 Dos Pilas, 99 drought, 101, 167n63, 168n64 dystopias, 122, 123 Easter Island, 57–64 collapse, 61–63, 82, 83, 129, 132 contact with Europe, 57–58, 62, 151n17 Easter Island, Earth Island (Bahn & Flenley), 63, 149n9 Ecological Imperialism (Crosby), 141n17 Eden, 9, 66, 67, 68 Egypt civilization, emergence, 33, 149n1 conservatism, 85, 103 disease, 104, 170n73 environment, 103, 109–10, 169n70 farming, 103 population growth, 103–4, 170n71 restraint in technology, 46 Einstein, Albert, 5, 118 Eiseley, Loren, 17 El Mirador, 95, 164n42 Enemy of the People (Ibsen), 180n41 Engels, Friedrich, 181n50 entrenched behaviour, 79, 102 Epic of Gilgamesh, 65–66, 70, 75–77, 152n24, 156n56, 157n59 epidemics, see Black Death in Europe Erewhon (Butler), 119, 122 European conquest of Americas, 37 Spanish, see Spanish conquests evolutionary theory, 9, 12 extinctions, 31, 37–40, 63, 141n18, 142n21 famines, 74, 105, 156n51, 171n76.
Into the Black: The Extraordinary Untold Story of the First Flight of the Space Shuttle Columbia and the Astronauts Who Flew Her by Rowland White, Richard Truly
Albert Einstein, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Charles Lindbergh, cuban missile crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Isaac Newton, John von Neumann, low earth orbit, Maui Hawaii, Mercator projection, orbital mechanics / astrodynamics, Ronald Reagan, William Langewiesche
A young Bob Crippen on his first horse, Sugar, beside the house in Porter, Texas, where he grew up. In the early 1950s Collier’s magazine laid out German rocket pioneer Wernher von Braun’s vision for space, serving as an inspiration for many who later became part of the space program. Last of the gunfighters. During the Cuban Missile Crisis Dick Truly flew Vought F-8 Crusaders from the USS Enterprise, the Navy’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. With dreams of becoming a test pilot, Bob Crippen earned his wings of gold as a naval aviator before flying A-4 Skyhawks off the deck of the USS Independence during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Crip is kneeling third from the right. Bob Crippen trained as a test pilot at Chuck Yeager’s Aerospace Research Pilot School at Edwards Air Force Base in 1965. One of his instructors was Dick Truly. Crip is in the back row, far right.
(He was luckier than “Leaky,” the squadron mate who, caught short in the cockpit, managed to pee into his leather flying glove without spilling a drop.) In the end, though, “Slats” didn’t stick. Everyone just knew the tan, brown-eyed Texan with the crewcut as Crip. After his first night landing aboard an aircraft carrier he thought, I can do just about anything. For a while, as he flew from the deck of the Navy’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, it looked like that might include war. Test flying, though, remained his goal, and he filled in the application form in 1964. It offered him a choice: Do you want to go to the Navy’s test pilot school at Patuxent River? Or would you be prepared to go to the Empire Test Pilots School in the UK, or train with the Air Force instead? He figured the odds of getting in were better if he said yes to all three of them.
When his orders came through telling him he’d been posted to Edwards Air Force Base, he was surprised to discover he’d be a student at an outfit called the Aerospace Research Pilot School—I thought I was going to test pilot school. The syllabus, he learned, included spaceflight. And his instructor on the space dynamics and control course was a young Navy pilot who, like Crip, had only just over a year before been flying off carriers during the Cuban Missile Crisis. His name was Lieutenant Dick Truly. THREE Edwards Air Force Base, 1963 When Dick Truly arrived at Edwards with his wife, Cody, two young sons and the family dog after a long cross-country drive, he felt like a cowboy just arrived at IBM. There were few places in the world that were more glamorous than Edwards. Like Peyton Place, thought Truly. The vast air base, scratched onto the Mojave Desert alongside the endless runways provided by Rogers Dry Lake Bed, was teeming with young couples glowing in the face of their illustrious profession: flying and testing the world’s most advanced, high-performance aircraft.
The Cold War: Stories From the Big Freeze by Bridget Kendall
anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, collective bargaining, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Howard Zinn, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, open borders, Ronald Reagan, white flight
In those days, West Berliners who wanted to see relatives in the East had only one way of doing this, and that was to stand at a vantage point in West Berlin where they could be seen by their relatives in the East. They could wave to each other. My fiancée saw her parents only as tiny little dots about 500 metres away. ‘The world was going to end any time now’ The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) THE CONFRONTATION KNOWN as the Cuban Missile Crisis, and in Russia as the Caribbean Crisis, took place over 13 days in October 1962. It was the closest the United States and the Soviet Union came during the Cold War to triggering nuclear apocalypse. The starting point went back to more than three years earlier and the moment, in January 1959, when a band of rebels on the Caribbean island of Cuba, led by the young revolutionaries Fidel Castro, his brother Raúl and Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara, succeeded in ousting the unpopular, corrupt dictatorship of Colonel Fulgencio Batista, following a two-year guerrilla campaign.
Contents Cover About the Book About the Author Title Page Introduction ‘Then all hell broke loose’ The Greek Civil War (1944–9) ‘The Iron Curtain was in place’ The Communist Coup in Czechoslovakia (1948) ‘There were no weapons, only arguments, ideas’ The Italian Election of 1948 ‘We were suddenly shut off’ The Berlin Blockade (1948–9) ‘Then fear replaced pride’ The Fall of Shanghai (1949) ‘The trap shut’ The Korean War (1950–3) ‘The world became a hostile place’ McCarthyism (1950–4) ‘When I saw the light, I had no idea what was happening’ The H-Bomb (1950s) ‘Now it was going to be different’ The East German Uprising (1953) ‘Democracy and freedom became a memory only’ The Iranian Coup (1953) ‘It was the beginning of freedom’ Khrushchev’s Secret Speech (1956) ‘We are not your comrades’ The Hungarian Revolution (1956) ‘They were leaving with only their suitcases, they lost everything’ The Congo Crisis (1960–1) ‘If one went, one couldn’t return’ The Berlin Wall (1961) ‘The world was going to end any time now’ The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) ‘There was no future’ The Fall of Khrushchev and the Rise of Brezhnev (1964–82) ‘They could accuse you of anything’ The Outbreak of the Chinese Cultural Revolution (1966–7) ‘They didn’t want to live in the dark any more’ The Prague Spring (1968) ‘I can’t wash that stain away’ America’s Vietnam War (1965–73) ‘Everything that you thought is not true any more’ The Coup in Chile (1973) ‘These were just ordinary men marching in the street’ The Fall of Saigon and the Aftermath of the Vietnam War (1975–9) ‘We fell into each other’s arms’ The Cold Peace and Ostpolitik (1969–79) ‘The country was left with no protection at all’ The Angolan Civil War (1975–2002) ‘The newcomer holding a weapon is the enemy’ The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan (1979–89) ‘We came out victorious’ The Birth of Solidarity in Poland (1980) ‘A threat to our mutual humanity’ The Nuclear Arms Race and CND (1981–7) ‘Everyone wanted change’ Gorbachev’s Perestroika (1985–91) ‘They are not so different from us’ The Fall of the Berlin Wall and German Reunification (1989–90) ‘The greatest value of mankind is their freedom’ The Baltic Republics Leave the Soviet Union (1988–91) ‘The last nail in the coffin’ The Collapse of the Soviet Union (1991) Contributor Biographies Picture Section Further Reading: Contributors’ Publications Further Reading Index of Contributors Index Acknowledgements Picture Credits Copyright About the Book Accompanying a landmark BBC Radio 4 series, The Cold War is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand how the tensions of the last century have shaped the modern world, and what it was like to live through them.
What kept me going was a sense of hope that I had finally left Vietnam and had arrived in a new country with a new beginning. ‘We fell into each other’s arms’ The Cold Peace and Ostpolitik (1969–79) AS THE COLD War wore on through the 1960s and 1970s, positions on both sides became entrenched, but at the same time governments in both East and West were keen to avoid unnecessary escalations. Neither Moscow nor Washington wanted to repeat the experience of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when the world had teetered on the brink of nuclear destruction. The implication of the West’s passive response to the Soviet-led invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 was that while the United States and its allies might not like what had happened, they were reluctantly prepared to live with a divided Europe. It seemed that on all sides a consensus had emerged that ‘normalising’ relations, so that they became more predictable, was the safest course of action.
Rise of the Rocket Girls: The Women Who Propelled Us, From Missiles to the Moon to Mars by Nathalia Holt
Bill Gates: Altair 8800, British Empire, computer age, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, financial independence, Grace Hopper, Isaac Newton, labor-force participation, low earth orbit, Mars Rover, music of the spheres, new economy, operation paperclip, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Steve Jobs, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Works Progress Administration, Yogi Berra
Ceruzzi explains how the Mariner 1 failure was a “combination of a hardware failure and software bug.” Material about the Mercury 7 and the Saturn rocket can be found in Richard W. Orloff and David M. Harland, Apollo: The Definitive Sourcebook (New York: Springer, 2006). The Cuban missile crisis is described in Sheldon M. Stern, The Cuban Missile Crisis in American Memory: Myths Versus Reality (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2012). Both this book and the Kennedy Presidential Library website (http://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/Cuban-Missile-Crisis.aspx) describe the presence of Jupiter missiles in Turkey. However, the role that the missiles played in the crisis wasn’t revealed to the American public until 1987. Pythagoras, the Greek mathematician, is credited with the saying “There is geometry in the humming of the strings.
When an American spy plane spotted nuclear-missile-site construction by the Soviets in Cuba, President Kennedy placed a blockade of American ships around the island. Cuba was cut off from the world. Addressing the nation on October 22, Kennedy said, “My fellow citizens: let no one doubt that this is a difficult and dangerous effort on which we have set out. No one can foresee precisely what course it will take or what costs or casualties will be incurred.” It seemed the world was accelerating toward nuclear war. The roots of the Cuban missile crisis were tangled up in American rocketry. In 1961, Americans had deployed Jupiter nuclear missiles to Turkey, adjacent to the Soviet Union. And these medium-range ballistic missiles were developed by none other than Wernher von Braun at the Army Ballistic Missile Agency. At last, Kennedy brokered a deal with the Soviets. They would dismantle their weaponry in Cuba in exchange for a pledge from the United States not to invade the island.
Mindwise: Why We Misunderstand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want by Nicholas Epley
affirmative action, airport security, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Cass Sunstein, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, friendly fire, invisible hand, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, payday loans, Peter Singer: altruism, pirate software, Richard Thaler, school choice, social intelligence, the scientific method, theory of mind
(August 19, 2010). When doctors admit their mistakes. New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/19/health/19chen.html?pagewanted=all. AFTERWORD: BEING MINDWISE 1. Much of this information comes from Arthur Schlesinger’s foreword to Kennedy’s autobiographical account of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Thirteen Days. Many other books cover the crisis in considerably more detail. 2. The full set of letters sent between Khrushchev and Kennedy, from both before and after the Cuban Missile Crisis, can be found here: http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/volume_vi/exchanges.html. The opening letter I’m referring to is from October 26, 1962. 3. Kislyakov, A. (2003). Hotline: 40 years of building up trust. CDI Russia Weekly 263: article 12. 4. Cited in Schlessinger’s foreword to Thirteen Days. 5.
How to Break a Terrorist (Alexander) How to Win Friends and Influence People (Carnegie), Principle 8 of, 8.1, 8.2 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) human rights, dehumanization and Hume, David hummingbirds humor, sense of, experiments on perception of hunters, anthropomorphism and hurricanes, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, 7.1, 7.2 Hussein, Saddam, 1.1, 8.1 Hutus Hyde, Janet Ickes, William, 1.1, 8.1 illusion of courage, 5.1, nts.1n immigration, immigrants, dehumanization and Indian Territory, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 inference, prf.1, 3.1 MPFC and, 3.1, 3.2 neuroimaging experiments and, 3.1, nts.1n inhibition hypothesis intelligence, experiments on perception of, 1.1, 1.2 intentions, prf.1, prf.2 interrogations intrinsic motivators, 3.1, nts.1n introspection, prf.1, 1.1 bigotry and, 2.1, 2.2 limitations to understanding of self through planning fallacy and shoppers’ preferences and Invisible Gorilla, The: and Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us (Simons and Chabris), nts.1n Iraq Al Qaeda in U.S. invasion and occupation of, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1 Islam, Muslims Israel, 6.1, 8.1, 8.2 Jahoda, Gustav James, William, 2.1, 2.2 Japan, U.S. firebombing of, n job interviews Johnson, Todd Jolie, Angelina Jung, Carl juries inadmissible evidence instructions and personal attendance of witnesses before Katrina, Hurricane, 4.1, 7.1, 7.2 Keaton, Diane Keller, Helen Keller, Maryann Kennedy, John F. Cuban missile crisis and, aft.1, aft.2 Khrushchev, Nikita S., aft.1, aft.2 kidnappings, n King, B. B. King, Martin Luther, Jr., n assassination of Kismet (MIT robot) knowledge “curse” of egocentrism and, 5.1, nts.1n others as main source of self and, prf.1, 1.1, 2.1, 8.1 stereotypes and, 6.1, 6.2 Koop, C. Everett Kruger, Justin Kunda, Ziva, n Landon, Alfred M. language child-rearing and knowledge and LaPiere, Richard, racial bigotry experiment of, 2.1, 2.2 leadership, experiments on perception of “legilimency” Leibniz, Gottfried Wilhelm von LeMay, Curtis, n Lenny (guitar) lens problem (interpretation) 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 Lepidoptera, 4.1, 4.2 lesbians, “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy and Lewis, John “Jordan”, n Lewis, Ray liberals, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 6.1, 6.2 Lie to Me, 8.1, nts.1n Lincoln, Abraham Lippmann, Walter Literary Digest lithops littering, context and reduction of Little League baseball Lockheed Martin, Mars Lander loss and, n Lorre, Peter Love at Goon Park: Harry Harlow and the Science of Affection (Blum), nts.1n Lovett, Debbie Lucille (guitar) lying, 7.1, 8.1, nts.1n, nts.2n microexpressions as predictor of perspective getting and Madonna Maine “Majority of Parents Abuse Children, Children Report” (Onion) Male Brain, The (Brizendine) Manilow, Barry, 5.1, nts.1n Marist Institute for Public Opinion, superpowers poll by, xx, nts.1n Markman, Howard marriage egocentrism and gay rights and, 5.1, 5.2 gift giving and, 8.1, nts.1n speaker-listener technique and Mars Lander, n Masood, Talat Masoro, Edward Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) mass media “nonverbal analysts” and perceived bias in, 2.1, 5.1, nts.1n McCain, John, 5.1, nts.1n mealworms Mearsheimer, John media bias, 2.1, 5.1, nts.1n medicine infant surgery without anesthesia and malpractice liability and physician empathy and Memphis, Tenn., King assassination in men emotions and, 6.1, 8.1 frequency of sex thoughts of see also gender; women Merchant of Venice, The (Shakespeare) mere-presence effect Michigan, University of, n Microsoft Word Milgram, Stanley, obedience to authority study of, 2.1, 2.2 Miller, Elaine mind, human associative networks and conscious versus unconscious functions of ego and free will concept and habits and house metaphor for iceberg metaphor for, 2.1, 2.2 naïve realism and, 2.1, 5.1 psychics misrepresentation of mind reading (insight) actions’ context importance to anthropomorphism and, see anthropomorphism attractiveness perception and, 1.1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 5.1, 5.2, 8.1 blindness versus deafness as limitation to, 8.1, nts.1n body language and, 8.1, 8.2, nts.1n, nts.2n bystander and crowd behavior and, 7.1, 7.2, nts.1n cerebral cortex and cooperation and correspondence bias and, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4, 8.1 cultural influences and dating and deception and, 1.1, 1.2 dehumanization and, see dehumanization egocentrism and, see egocentrism empathy and, prf.1, 3.1, 3.2, 6.1, 6.2, 8.1 feedback and, 8.1, 8.2, nts.1n first impressions and flat-earth thinking and, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3, nts.1n forgiveness and friends and relatives and inference and, prf.1, 3.1 interpretation (“lens problem”) and, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 intrinsic motivators and, 3.1, nts.1n limitations to, prf.1, 2.1 lying and, 7.1, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, nts.1n, nts.2n Marist “superpowers” poll and, xx, nts.1n microexpressions and misunderstanding causes of behavior and motivation perception and observing others’ gaze and, 3.1, 4.1 others’ impressions of you measured by overconfidence in skill at performance appraisals and personal perspective (“neck problem”) and, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 perspective getting and, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, aft.1, nts.1n perspective taking and, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.4, 8.5, 8.6, nts.1n Quiz Bowl experiment and, 7.1, 7.2, 7.3 reasoning and romantic partners and, 1.1, 1.2, nts.1n self-knowledge and, prf.1, 1.1, 2.1, 8.1 self-worth perception and sensing minds of others and, 3.1, nts.1n shortcomings in, xx, 1.1, 3.1, nts.1n sixth sense nature of snap judgments and social interactions and, prf.1, prf.2, 3.1, 4.1, nts.1n speed of motion and, 4.1, nts.1n stereotypes and, see stereotypes talking stick and misunderstanding, overconfidence and monkeys Morse code Muller, Erich “Mancow” musical instruments, anthropomorphism and mutual fund managers, context of success of Nagin, Ray, 4.1, 4.2 naïve realism, 2.1, 5.1 Napoleon I, Emperor of France, 7.1, 7.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), n National Basketball Association (NBA), n National Football League (NFL) dehumanization of players by owners in slow-motion replays of tackles in, n National Public Radio (NPR), 2.1, 4.1 Native Americans, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 8.1 Nazis (National Socialists) Nebraska neck problem (personal perspective), 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 Nelson, Willie neuroimaging inference and, 3.1, nts.1n religious beliefs and neurons Nevada, drone operations in Newcastle, University of Newlywed Game New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina and, 4.1, 7.1 Newton, Elizabeth, 5.1, nts.1n New York City, 3.1, 5.1 New York Times, 8.1, aft.1 NHI (No Humans Involved) Nimoy, Leonard, 7.1, 7.2 Niobrara River Nisbett, Richard, n Noland, Chuck (char.)
.), 7.1, 7.2 sports, context of success in spotlight effect, 5.1, 5.2, 8.1, nts.1n Standing Bear, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5 Stanford University, 2.1, 3.1 Star Trek Steffel, Mary stereotypes, prf.1, 5.1, 6.1, 7.1, 8.1, 8.2, aft.1, nts.1n accuracy and error of African Americans and, 6.1, 6.2 aging and, 6.1, 6.2 Asians and circle test experiment and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4 conflict resolution and differences and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 8.1, nts.1n, nts.2n expectations and self-fulfillment of explanation and, 6.1, 6.2 gender and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, nts.1n, nts.2n groups and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, nts.1n knowledge and, 6.1, 6.2 line length experiment and, 6.1, 6.2 politics and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4 race and ethnicity and reality and visible facts versus invisible states and, 6.1, 6.2, nts.1n wealth inequality and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, nts.1n Stevens, Martin Stevenson, DeShawn, n stock market, anthropomorphism and, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 students, stereotype study of, 6.1, nts.1n Stumbling on Happiness (Gilbert) Stutesman, John suicide bombers, 3.1, 3.2 Sunstein, Cass Super Bowl Supreme Court, Canadian Sweden, Vasa disaster and, 5.1, nts.1n synapses “Take Five to Live Light” campaign Taliban talking stick Talking to the Enemy (Atran), nts.1n Target taxes, taxation taxicabs Taylor, Elizabeth teasing telepathy telephones, 4.1, 5.1, 8.1, nts.1n egocentrism and, 5.1, 5.2 television, anthropomorphism and terrorism, terrorists, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 8.1, nts.1n, nts.2n parochial altruism and, 3.1, nts.1n Tesh, John, n Tevatron, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 texting, 5.1, 6.1 Thaler, Richard Theory of Moral Sentiments, The (Smith) Titchener, Edward tobacco Todd, Ashley, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 toddlers, social testing of, prf.1, nts.1n Tools of the Mind, n torture issue, 5.1, nts.1n Tour de France Toyota, GM intrinsic motivation experiment and Transportation Security Administration (TSA), U.S., 8.1, 8.2 travel, social engagement versus solitude and Trigger (guitar) T-shirt experiment, 5.1, nts.1n Tutsis Twitter, 2.1, 5.1, 5.2, 6.1, aft.1 typecasting ubuntu concept United Nations (UN) United States of America Afghan war and, 3.1, 8.1 Cuban missile crisis and, aft.1, aft.2 Iraq invasion and, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1 September 11, 2001 terror attacks and, 3.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 5.1, nts.1n, nts.2n stereotyping of aging in World War II and, 3.1, nts.1n Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) University of Michigan Hospitals vacuum cleaners Vance, Walter, 7.1, 7.2 Vanilla Ice, n Vasa, 5.1, nts.1n Vaughan, Stevie Ray vegetarianism, anthropomorphism and, 4.1, 4.2 Velveteen Rabbit, The (Williams) Vermont Vietnam War vision brain function and, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 color perception and deafness compared with loss of, 8.1, nts.1n defining groups and, 6.1, 6.2 saccades and visual cortex Wahlberg, Mark, 5.1, nts.1n Wallace, David Foster Wall Street Journal, nts.1n Walt Disney Company, 4.1, 4.2 Wansink, Brian wants warbots, 4.1, 4.2, nts.1n Washington, D.C.
Upstream: The Quest to Solve Problems Before They Happen by Dan Heath
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, airport security, Albert Einstein, bank run, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, illegal immigration, Internet of things, mandatory minimum, millennium bug, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, payday loans, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, self-driving car, Skype, Snapchat, subscription business, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Y2K
It was the era of the Cold War: Nuclear fallout shelters: Robert Klara, “Nuclear Fallout Shelters Were Never Going to Work,” History, October 16, 2017, updated September 1, 2018, https://www.history.com/news/nuclear-fallout-shelters-were-never-going-to-work; biological warfare: Joshua Lederberg, “The Infamous Black Death May Return to Haunt Us,” Washington Post, August 31, 1968, https://www.nlm.nih.gov/hmd/lederberg/pdf/bbabtv.pdf; Cuban Missile Crisis: “Cuban Missile Crisis,” Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis; duck and cover in schools: Sarah Pruitt, “How ‘Duck-and-Cover’ Drills Channeled America’s Cold War Anxiety,” March 26, 2019, https://www.history.com/news/duck-cover-drills-cold-war-arms-race. The Andromeda Strain: Michael Crichton, The Andromeda Strain (New York: Centesis Corporation, 1969). warned of two types of contamination: Michael Meltzer, When Biospheres Collide, 18.
“Thousands of concerned citizens wrote NASA letters, worried that they were at risk from Moon germs,” wrote Michael Meltzer in his fascinating book When Biospheres Collide. It might be tempting to mock these fears now, with the infallibility of hindsight, but this concern was no joke. We simply did not know what was on the Moon. And existential risk was in the air. It was the era of the Cold War, nuclear fallout shelters, biological warfare agents, the Cuban missile crisis, “duck and cover” exercises in schools. (Feeding the fears was a 1969 bestseller by Michael Crichton, The Andromeda Strain—released about two months before the Moon landing—which concerned a deadly alien organism brought back to earth by a fallen satellite.) In the 1950s, just before the launch of the USSR’s Sputnik program, a group of scientists began to warn of the dangers of contamination from space exploration.
Inviting Disaster by James R. Chiles
Airbus A320, airline deregulation, crew resource management, cuban missile crisis, Exxon Valdez, Maui Hawaii, Milgram experiment, North Sea oil, Piper Alpha, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance
The school superintendent, who along with the school board had known about and agreed to the purchase of the cheap gas, lost his son in the explosion and his job afterward. Said the final report on the disaster, which cost 298 lives: “It was the collective faults of average individuals, ignorant of or indifferent to the need of precautionary measures, where they cannot, in their lack of knowledge, visualize a danger or hazard.” MINUTEMEN ON THE HIGH PLAINS During the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, apparently there was no time to visualize, either, about something that could have gone terribly wrong for the world at Malmstrom Air Force Base. During the showdown with the USSR, defense contractors and air force personnel rushed to get the new solid-fueled Minuteman 1 missiles up and working in case the president wanted to fire them at the Soviet Union. Malmstrom, near Great Falls, Montana, was the first base in the country to receive the new missiles.
When I went for a walk around the ship to stay awake, I kept seeing human faces in the outline of the machinery, a minor but unsettling hallucination. The men did their routine jobs well enough, but no one had much energy for tackling the difficult tasks, which needed protracted troubleshooting. Fortunately our endurance run ended soon afterward when reinforcement workers arrived via helicopter. But some workers don’t have that luxury. Recalling the brutally long days and nights of the Cuban Missile Crisis, presidential adviser Ted Sorensen said one of the most worrisome revelations was how sleeplessness eroded the powers of judgment. THE CAN-DO MAN Early-morning fatigue played a part in a very close call with a British airliner in June 1990. The central actor was a hardworking maintenance manager for British Airways; we don’t know his name, but we’ll call him Jones. He worked the graveyard shift at the company hangar in Birmingham, England.
Instead, the officer ordered the men to pipe in steam from the engine room, figuring this would put the fire out by starving it of oxygen. “Steaming the hold” was a traditional fire-fighting solution for the unusual emergency that had befallen them. Steaming was the worst thing they could have done, short of lighting up a flamethrower and dropping it down on the fertilizer bags before battening down the hatches. The words of John F. Kennedy come to mind, describing an incident during the Cuban missile crisis: “Always there’s some son of a bitch who doesn’t get the word.” The ones who had the word were the Army Ordnance Bureau’s Emergency Export Corporation, which was overseeing the manufacture of the fertilizer, and the U.S. Coast Guard, which had written regulations stating that the chemical was a “dangerous substance.” By 1947 the Coast Guard had clear authority to regulate the arrival and loading of such shipments, but it was short of money and hadn’t fully taken up the duty.
Click Here to Kill Everybody: Security and Survival in a Hyper-Connected World by Bruce Schneier
23andMe, 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Brian Krebs, business process, cloud computing, cognitive bias, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Heinemeier Hansson, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, fault tolerance, Firefox, Flash crash, George Akerlof, industrial robot, information asymmetry, Internet of things, invention of radio, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, loose coupling, market design, medical malpractice, Minecraft, MITM: man-in-the-middle, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, national security letter, Network effects, pattern recognition, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, ransomware, Rodney Brooks, Ross Ulbricht, security theater, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart transportation, Snapchat, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, The Market for Lemons, too big to fail, Uber for X, Unsafe at Any Speed, uranium enrichment, Valery Gerasimov, web application, WikiLeaks, zero day
Beardslee (Mar–Apr 1983), “Adolescents and the threat of nuclear war: The evolution of a perspective,” Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine 56, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC 2589708/pdf/yjbm00104-0020.pdf. 95Over the years, there were plenty: Union of Concerned Scientists (20 Apr 2015), “Close calls with nuclear weapons,” http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/04/Close%20Calls%20with%20Nuclear%20Weapons.pdf. Future of Life Institute (1 Feb 2016), “Accidental nuclear war: A timeline,” https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline. 95The Cuban Missile Crisis is probably: Benjamin Schwarz (1 Jan 2013), “The real Cuban missile crisis,” Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/01/the-real-cuban-missile-crisis/309190. 95although the 1983 false alarm is a close second: Sewell Chan (18 Sep 2017), “Stanislav Petrov, Soviet officer who helped avert nuclear war,” New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/world/europe/stanislav-petrov-nuclear-war-dead.html. 95although much less damaging than: Laura Geggel (9 Feb 2016), “The odds of dying,” Live Science, https://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.html. 95But instead of regarding it as: As amazing as it seems today, immediately after 9/11, people actually believed that terrorist attacks of that magnitude would happen every few months.
In hindsight, there are a lot of reasons why neither the US nor the USSR started World War III, but none of them were obvious at the time. Partly, it turned out our world’s leaders weren’t as fanatical as we thought they were. Over the years, there were plenty of technical glitches in both the US’s and the USSR’s missile detection systems—instances where the equipment clearly showed that the country was under nuclear attack—and in neither instance did the country retaliate. The Cuban Missile Crisis is probably the closest we came politically to a nuclear war, although the 1983 false alarm is a good close second. Yet it didn’t happen. Our collective fears after the 9/11 terrorist attacks were similar. That singular event, with its 3,000-person death toll and $10 billion cost in property and infrastructure damage, was way out of proportion to every other terrorist attack we have experienced in the history of our planet (although much less damaging than the annual death toll from automobiles, heart disease, or malaria).
Abbott Labs, 38, 41 Access Now, 214 accountability, 112, 128, 147 ACLU, 223 ad blockers, 16 African Union, 89 airline safety, 144 airplanes: bugs in, 41 remote control of, 1–2, 16 air traffic control, 210 Alexa (Amazon’s virtual assistant), 4, 61 Alexander, Keith, 118 algorithms: accurate inputs required by, 84 autonomous, 7, 82–87 data needed by, 84 hacking of, 83–84 machine learning, 82–83, 85, 111–12 physical agency of, 83 and robots, 86–87 security standards for, 111–12, 148 speed of, 84–85 Alibaba website, 169 Alphabet (Google’s parent company), 57 Alphonso, 58 Amazon, 57, 61, 62 Amnesia IoT botnet, 37 Amnesty International, 223 Anderson, Ross, 185 Andromeda botnet, 52 Angry Birds, 58 anonymity, 52, 53, 110, 199–200 Apple, 57, 60, 78, 174, 196 Applied Cryptography (Schneier), 32 Arab Spring, 67 arbitration agreements, 129 Arthur Andersen, 127 artificial intelligence (AI), 7, 86–87, 95, 148, 149, 219 Ashley Madison, hacking of, 78 AT&T, 113 Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), 149 attack vs. defense, 160–79 attack as US priority in, 73 attack easier than defense, 219 attacks changing in, 32–33 “defense dominant” strategy, 160 design for security vs. surveillance, 167–70 fixing vulnerabilities in, 162–67 in law enforcement, 173–76 offensive autonomous attack software, 85 and relationship between government and industry, 176–79 security as, 10, 16, 26–28 zero days in, 162, 163, 165 attribution, 52–55 in cyberattacks, 72, 203 detection evasion, 55 main points of, 54 authentication, 45–51 continuous, 47 differential, 47, 49 hub-and-spoke model of, 50 and identification, 51 and identity theft, 50–51, 171 and impersonation, 51 in Internet+, 49–51 methods of, 46 standards of, 109, 169 trade-off between security and usability in, 47 two-factor, 47, 49, 200 automobiles: aging, 39–40 bugs in, 41 driverless, 4, 205 industry regulation of, 182, 186 international markets for, 186, 187 Internet connection in, 6 manufacturer support of, 39–40 remote hacking of, 1, 3, 16 repair manuals for, 139 safety of, 139, 182 security standards for, 151 availability, attacks on, 78–82 Azimuth, 162 baby monitors, 133–35 backdoors, 26, 87, 88, 172, 174, 193–98, 220 Baker, Stewart, 204 balkanization, 157 banks, data manipulation attacks on, 81–82 Baratov, Karim, 30 Beckstrom, Rod, 19 Belan, Alexsey, 30 Bell, Alexander Graham, 152 best efforts, 122 Beyond Fear (Schneier), 211 “big data,” 57 biometrics, authentication via, 46, 47 Bismarck, Otto von, 220 bitcoin, 15, 74, 75, 77, 198, 218 blackouts, 29, 90 Blade Runner (film), 218 Blaster worm, 94 Bluetooth, 50, 58, 79 Bohm, Nick, 220 Border Gateway Protocol (BGP), 22, 23, 24, 115 Boston Marathon bombing (2013), 95, 202 Boston MBTA, 42 botnets, 26, 75, 77, 95, 139 Bowman Dam, Rye, New York, 79 breach disclosure laws, 137–38 bribery, 183 Brightest Flashlight, 58 BT, 113 Buckshot Yankee, 66 Budapest Convention on Cybercrime, 157 buffer overflow bug, 21 bug bounties, 36 bugs, 20–21, 41 CALEA (Communications Assistance for Law Enforcement Act) , 168, 170 California, “Teddy Bears and Toasters” bill in, 187–88 Calo, Ryan, 149 Cameron, David, 197 Campos, Hugo, 63 CAN-SPAM Act (2003), 154 Caproni, Valerie, 193 “Capture the Flag” (hacking sport), 85 Carbon Black, 74 Carson, Rachel, Silent Spring, 183 caveat emptor, 131 Cellebrite, 174 cell towers, 32–33 fake, 168–70 Center on Privacy and Technology, 224 CEO fraud, 75 Challenger, 29 Check Point (Israeli company), 87 Cheney, Dick, 76, 93, 94 Chertoff, Michael, 198 Child Online Protection Act (1998), 154, 192–93 child porn, 183 China: and African Union headquarters, 89 censorship in, 67–68 and cybercrime law, 156, 158 cyberespionage by, 66, 67, 81 eavesdropping on communications, 195–96 hacking by, 45 intellectual property theft by, 66, 72–73 social control in, 67–68 China Telecom, 113 chips: general-purpose, 6 vulnerabilities in, 21 CIA, 73, 77, 165–67 Cisco Internet switches, 170 cities, smart sensors in, 4, 6 Citizen Lab, 64 Clapper, James, 66, 81 Clark, David, 23 class-action lawsuits, 129 class breaks: hacking via, 33, 95 use of term, 31–32 click fraud, 16, 75 cloud computing, 7, 190 Code for America, 223 Cogent ISP, 115 Cohen, Julie, 154 Comcast, 62, 113 Comey, James, 193–94 Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity, 180–81 complexity, 11, 27 and accidents, 80 theory of, 210 and unpredictability, 211 Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (1986), 42 computers: extensibility of, 24–26 as ubiquitous, 1–5, 19 vulnerabilities in, 30–32 confidentiality, threats to, 78–81 Consumers Union, 136, 145 copy protection, 25, 41, 62, 131, 154, 155, 205 Core Infrastructure Initiative, 115 corporations: CEO fraud in, 75 consumers controlled by, 59–64 data sought by, 57 infrastructure controlled by, 117 insecurity favored by, 56 profit maximization by, 118 regulation evaded by, 154–55 surveillance capitalism in, 57–59, 65, 209 CrashOverride, 2, 4–5 credential stealing, 45–47 credit card fraud, 16, 100 crime rate, public toleration of, 92 crimeware-as-a-service (CaaS), 76 cryptanalysis, differential, 33 cryptocurrencies, 172, 198 Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), 95 “cyber,” as umbrella term, 183–84 cyberattacks, 68–74, 116, 203, 217 Cyberbit (Israel), 65 cybercrime, 74–77, 156, 158 cyberdefense: “active,” 203 national agency for, 148 cyberespionage, see espionage Cyber Grand Challenge, 85 cyber incident data repository, 177 cyber peace, 213–14 cyberphysical systems, 7 cyber resilience, 211–12 cybersecurity, see Internet+ security Cybersecurity Improvement Act (2017), 180, 208 Cyber Shield Act (2017), 136 cyberstalking, 76 Cyber Threat Alliance, 177 cyberwar, 68–74 arms race in, 73, 116, 212–14 attribution in, 72 autonomous weapons in, 86 cyberespionage vs., 72 cyber mercenaries in, 70 limited response in, 71 “preparing the battlefield,” 69 and unpeace, 71–74 cyberweapons: in armed conflict, 72 autonomous, 86 instability of, 72, 212 manufacturers, 65 nonproliferation standards for, 158 theft of, 73 Daniel, Michael, 164 Darknet, 198 DARPA (US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), 85 data: accuracy of, 84 in adversarial machine learning, 84 anonymity of, 110 as byproduct, 57 “Collect it all,” 118 deletion of, 110 encryption of, 109, 171 integrity of, 80, 81, 109 jurisdiction over, 146 limits on collection of, 109 metadata, 174 natural bias of, 84 ownership of, 109 personal, control of, 62–63, 64, 109–11 sharing of, 177–79 storage and processing of, 174 Data and Goliath (Schneier), 110, 172 databases: encryption of, 171 threats to, 79, 80, 81 data brokers, 58 Data Encryption Standard (DES), 32, 33 DDoS (distributed denial-of-service) attack, 29, 130, 202 Deepwater Horizon disaster, 124 “defense dominance,” 160 see also attack vs. defense Democratic National Committee, Russian attacks on (2016), 30, 45, 78, 80 denial of service, 29, 79, 81, 130, 202 Department of Homeland Security, 117, 138 Derechos Digitales, Chile, 214 detection evasion, 55 Digital HKS, Harvard, 224 Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), 41–42, 62, 154, 193, 205–6, 220 digital rights management (DRM), 25, 62, 205 Digital Security Helpline, 214 DNSChanger malware, 37 Doctorow, Cory, 163 Dodd-Frank Act (2010), 126 Domain Name Service, 24, 115 security (DNSSEC), 24 domino effect, 210 “Don’t Panic,” 174 drones, 7, 80, 91, 95, 151, 200 Dyn, botnet attack against, 94, 202 Edgehill program (UK), 168 Electronic Communications Privacy Act (1986), 153 Electronic Frontier Foundation, 32, 223 Who Has Your Back?
Transcending the Cold War: Summits, Statecraft, and the Dissolution of Bipolarity in Europe, 1970–1990 by Kristina Spohr, David Reynolds
anti-communist, bank run, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, computer age, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Kickstarter, Kitchen Debate, liberal capitalism, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Nixon shock, oil shock, open borders, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, shared worldview, Thomas L Friedman, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game
His word was quickly picked up in the international media and by 1955 the Geneva meeting between the leaders of America, Russia, Britain, and France was officially billed as a ‘summit’ by the US State Department.6 But after Geneva there was little progress. The next ‘Big Four’ meeting, in 1960 in Paris, was aborted and the Kennedy-Khrushchev encounter in Vienna the following year was a dialogue of the deaf. The Soviet leader returned home believing that he could bully the green, young American president by placing nuclear missiles in Cuba—a gamble that took the world to the brink of nuclear war in 1962. Mutual shock about the Cuban Missile Crisis, however, pushed the superpowers into dialogue to restrain their spiralling nuclear arms race. To advance this process of negotiation and cut through the bureaucratic obstacles, summitry became the prime instrument of diplomacy, starting with the meeting between President Richard Nixon and General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev in Moscow 1972. Superpower summits in the 1970s and 1980s to advance nuclear arms control form one important strand of this book.
Through this complex of diplomatic initiatives, which would at once shore up the American position in the Cold War while limiting the possibilities for further growth in Soviet influence, Nixon hoped to continue the containment of Soviet expansion, but now through negotiation not confrontation.9 Brezhnev shared Nixon’s desire to move to a period of negotiation, but for somewhat different reasons. His experience of Stalinism and the Great Patriotic War had made him staunchly conservative domestically but he also believed that war should be avoided at all costs. Brezhnev rejected the adventurism of his predecessor, Nikita Khrushchev, who, he thought, had brought the world to the brink of nuclear war with his reckless actions during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Instead of using nuclear weapons as a means to secure a dramatic realignment in global politics through audacious gambits, he ‘wanted’, according to historian Vladislav Zubok, ‘to convert the growing power of the Soviet Union into the coin of international diplomacy and prestige’.10 Brezhnev appears to have shared Nixon’s overall sense that the ‘correlation of forces’ was shifting in favour of the Soviet Union.
At the same time arms control agreements should make it possible for the Kremlin to redirect military spending to more productive economic use, boosting standards of living and bringing mass prosperity within reach. With the implementation of all these steps, Brezhnev hoped to rejuvenate the Soviet bloc and present himself as the architect of a new era of peace and stability, confirming his personal grip on power. Moscow’s new strategy coincided with a parallel crisis of the Western alliance. During the 1960s, NATO also lost cohesion and legitimacy. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Cold War had stabilized and fears of war with the Warsaw Pact declined. If these trends continued, Western political leaders feared, voters might conclude that NATO served no purpose or, worse, stood in the way of peace.14 Further, some Western European leaders chafed at American leadership. In 1966, French president Charles de Gaulle shocked Washington by withdrawing from NATO’s military command.15 These existential challenges prompted NATO to articulate a new raison d’être in the Harmel Report of 1967.
Roller-Coaster: Europe, 1950-2017 by Ian Kershaw
airport security, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, centre right, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, feminist movement, first-past-the-post, fixed income, floating exchange rates, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, illegal immigration, income inequality, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, labour market flexibility, land reform, late capitalism, liberal capitalism, liberation theology, low skilled workers, mass immigration, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, precariat, price stability, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, reserve currency, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Sinatra Doctrine, The Chicago School, trade liberalization, union organizing, upwardly mobile, washing machines reduced drudgery, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent, young professional
Few in London, however, were interested in the epic tale they tried to tell. Fear of imminent nuclear war was never as acute as during the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962.fn1 It marked for nearly twenty years the high point of the CND’s protest. The Test Ban Treaty the following year saw its support slump. The CND had always been a minority movement – significant certainly, but never gaining the backing of the majority, even in the Labour Party. Most people recognized the fallacy of the notion that possession of the bomb gave Britain any genuine autonomy from the United States should it come to nuclear war. It was plain during the anxiety at the time of the Cuban missile crisis that, should it come to nuclear war, Britain would most likely be attacked whether it had the bomb or not. Opponents of the country’s nuclear capability argued that it was pointless, therefore, to have the bomb.
But a nuclear war, which seemed far from a distant prospect, threatened the entire basis of the continent’s capacity to survive as a civilization. And the threat of nuclear war, hanging over Europe like the sword of Damocles, did not depend solely upon events in Europe itself. For Europe was now fully exposed to the global confrontation between the nuclear superpowers. Events far from European shores, the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950 and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, mark the beginning and end of the most dangerous phase of the Cold War for Europe (though a second, briefer period of heightened threat occurred in the early 1980s). The children, products of the post-war ‘baby boom’, born into this new era would live to see changes that their parents could not have imagined. They would also experience an acceleration of change – political, economic, social and cultural – that exceeded anything known in earlier peacetime conditions.
And in Moscow on 5 August 1963 the United States, the Soviet Union and Great Britain agreed to a limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, prohibiting other than underground testing. (France did not sign.) It was a modest step, but it amounted at least to a start. Little over a year later, in October 1964, Khrushchev was removed from power in a ‘palace coup’ in the Kremlin. His action in provoking the Cuban missile crisis, seen to have damaged the Soviet Union’s international standing, was among the reasons for his deposition. So was his authorization of the building of the Berlin Wall. With Khrushchev’s departure, the Cold War lost an erratic, blustering, unpredictable component. Two new Soviet leaders replaced him: Leonid Brezhnev as General Secretary of the Communist Party and Alexei Kosygin as Prime Minister.
The Future of War by Lawrence Freedman
Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, British Empire, colonial rule, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Donald Trump, drone strike, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Google Glasses, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Markoff, long peace, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, Norbert Wiener, open economy, pattern recognition, Peace of Westphalia, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, speech recognition, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, the scientific method, uranium enrichment, urban sprawl, Valery Gerasimov, WikiLeaks, zero day
The alert was cancelled but a ‘go-code’ was sent in error to a group of bombers, an error exacerbated by a new Russian system successfully preventing communications between the aircraft and their headquarters. Even when the jamming ended, the aircraft crew decided that their protocols required them to continue with the mission. As in Red Alert, the president offered to trade one city for another, in this case New York for Moscow.19 Somewhat chillingly the novel appeared as a three-part serial in the Saturday Evening Post in October 1962, coinciding with the Cuban Missile Crisis, before being published the next year as a book. The authors introduced the book saying: ‘Men, machines, and mathematics being what they are, this is, unfortunately, a “true” story. The accident may not occur in the way we describe but the laws of probability assure us that ultimately it will occur.’ The implication was that a simple, apparently minor, mechanical failure could have unthinkable, catastrophic effects.20 Both novels were turned into well-regarded movies.
In a project connected to their programme on avoiding nuclear war, they considered the alternatives to deterrence, with ten scenarios for a lessened threat. These went from reducing the vulnerability of populations, less dependence upon nuclear weapons or else their abolition, to a variety of political possibilities, including accommodation with the Soviet Union and even world federalism.22 In looking at the workings of the ‘crystal ball effect’ during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, James Blight argued that the effect worked when combined with a ‘visceral fear’ that this might actually come to pass. Without the emotion that made the dangers seem so real and immediate, the knowledge would just fall into the ‘trash heap of received wisdom’, accepted ‘by rote and not from conviction’. To get governments to behave responsibly they needed not only the crystal ball but also the fear that it might be shattered.23 Then, as the book was published, the Cold War came to an end and the fear evaporated
The Causes of War. New York: Free Press, 1988. Blair, Prime Minister Tony. Speech to Economic Club of Chicago. PBS, 22 April 1999. Available: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/international-jan-june99-blair_doctrine4-23/. Blattman, Christopher, and Edward Miguel. ‘Civil War’. Journal of Economic Literature 48.1 (2010): 3–57. Blight, James. The Shattered Crystal Ball: Fear and Learning in the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 1990. Bloch, I. S. Is War Now Impossible? Being an Abridgment of The War of the Future in Its Technical Economic and Political Relations. London: Grant Richard, 1899. Available: https://archive.org/details/iswarnowimpossib00bloc. . ‘The Wars of the Future’. The Contemporary Review 8 (1901): 305–32. . ‘The Transvaal War: Its Lessons in Regard to Militarism and Army Reorganisation’.
Year 501 by Noam Chomsky
"Robert Solow", anti-communist, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, Bolshevik threat, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, colonial rule, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, European colonialism, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Howard Zinn, invisible hand, land reform, land tenure, long peace, mass incarceration, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, non-tariff barriers, offshore financial centre, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price stability, Ralph Nader, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, strikebreaker, structural adjustment programs, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, union organizing, War on Poverty, working poor
A 1980 study of the Center for Defense Information (CDI), tracing Russian influence on a country-by-country basis since World War II, concluded reasonably that Soviet power had declined from that peak to the point where by 1979, “the Soviets were influencing only 6 percent of the world’s population and 5 percent of the world’s GNP, exclusive of the Soviet Union.” By the mid-1960s, the Soviet economy was stagnating or even declining; there was an accompanying decline in housing, commerce, and life expectancy, while infant mortality increased by a third from 1970 to 1975.13 The Cuban missile crisis of 1962, revealing extreme Soviet vulnerability, led to a huge increase in military spending, levelling off by the late 1970s. The economy was then visibly stagnating and the autocracy unable to control rising dissidence. The command economy had carried out basic industrial development but was unable to proceed to more advanced stages, and also suffered from the global recession that devastated much of the South.
Shock Waves: Eastern Europe After the Revolution (South End, 1992) Fitzgerald, Tom. Between Life and Economics (1990 Boyer lectures of the Australian Broadcasting Company, ABC, 1990) Franklin, Bruce. M.I.A., or Mythmaking in America (Lawrence Hill, 1992) Gaddis, John Lewis. Strategies of Containment (Oxford, 1982) —The Long Peace (Oxford, 1987) Garthoff, Raymond. Détente and Confrontation (Brookings, 1985) —Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Brookings, 1987) George, Alexander, ed. Westem State Terrorism (Polity, 1991) Gerschenkron, Alexander. Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective (Harvard, 1962) Ginger, Ann Pagan, and David Christiano, eds. The Cold War Against Labor (Meiklejohn Civil Liberties Institute, 1987), two vols. Gleijeses, Piero. Shattered Hope (Princeton, 1991) Green, David. The Containment of Latin America (Quadrangle, 1971) Greider, William.
., 18 class war, 61, 70, 74, 78, 156, 379, 384, 386 Cleveland, Grover, 392 Clinton, Bill, 320 Clive, Robert, 10, 16 Cobban, Alfred, 28 Cockburn, Alexander, 372 Colby, William, 40–41, 182 Cold War, 46, 60, 93, 101–06, 220 end of, 52, 112, 121–25, 130–31, 141, 147, 291, 294, 349 relation to North-South conflict, 91, 98, 212 US policy in, 64, 223, 234, 251–53, 269, 331, 340 Collins, Joseph, 261 Collor de Mello, Fernando, 111, 256 Colombia, 119–22, 244 colonialism, 48, 91–92, 101, 216, 307, 343 British colonialism, vii–viii, 4–6, 8–22, 26–28, 274–75, 314, 361–62 Dutch colonialism, 7, 9–11, 13–14, 19, 26, 168, 362 Flemish colonialism, 28 French colonialism, 28, 95, 271–75, 281, 341, 345, 369, 374 Japanese colonialism, 4, 341, 343 neocolonialism, 3, 60–61, 76, 130, 172, 219 Portuguese colonialism, 6–7, 9, 11, 19, 180 settler colonialism, viii Spanish colonialism, 6–7, 9–10, 17, 42–44, 195, 273–74 US colonialism, ix, 14, 30–38, 43, 105, 197, 276–82, 314–19, 328, 334–38, 372 See also imperialism Columbus, Christopher, 6, 271–74 Colombian era, 3, 42, 215 Native American policy, 44, 364–65 Committee of Concerned Asian Scholars, 339 Communism, 49–50 in Brazil, 220, 223–24, 230 in Chile, 50 in China, 143, 341 in Cuba, 199, 203–05 in Indonesia, 168–170, 174–75, 177–86 in Italy, 56 in Japan, 142 in Poland, 108 in Soviet Union, 111–13 in Spain, 101 US policy toward, 54, 66, 81, 93–98, 131, 150, 217, 235, 320, 331, 381, 388 in Vietnam, 346, 359–60, 366–70 See also Marxism; Soviet Union Conniff, Ruth, 384 Constable, Pamela, 205, 263, 295 Conyers, John, 300 Cooper, Marc, 269 Cortés, Hernán, 9, 15 Costa Rica, 119–20, 208, 245–48 Costigliola, Frank, 65 Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA), 272, 288, 293, 299 counterinsurgency, 40, 235, 247, 331, 372 Cowell, Alan, 126 Cromer, Lord. See Baring, Evelyn Crossette, Barbara, 195, 251, 301, 346–48 Cuba, ix–xii, 49, 105, 122, 214, 235, 257, 329 racialization in, 274 South Africa policy, 100, 129 US policy toward, 67, 124, 196–212, 284, 296, 336–37, 344 Cuban missile crisis, xi, 102, 157, 203, 206 Cumings, Bruce, 47–48 Curzon, Lord George, 26, 48 Czechoslovakia, 68, 113 Daly, Herman, 82 Davidson, Basil, 6 Dawes, Henry, 318 Debo, Angie, 317 Debs, Eugene, 392 de Gaulle, Charles, 65 Delfim Neto, Antonio, 226–27 Democratic Republic of the Congo, 28, 129, 141 denialism, vii–x disability, 355–57, 356–57 Dole, Sanford, 337 Dominican Republic, 253, 272, 275, 278–79, 282, 295, 304 Donovan, William, 98 Dower, John, 334 Drake, Francis, 8 Dreier, John, 58–59 drug war, 42, 80, 83, 116–17, 119–22, 154, 232 Du Boff, Richard, 71, 83, 309 Duggan, Laurence, 47 Dulles, John Foster, 48, 51, 54, 98, 217, 220 DuPont, Samuel, 335 Dutch East India Company (VOC), 7, 26 Duvalier, François (“Papa Doc”), 278, 281 Duvalier, Jean-Claude (“Baby Doc”), 272, 283–292, 294, 299, 305 Economic Policy Institute, 387 Economist, 44, 86, 88, 151, 152, 161, 180, 381 Ecuador, 242–43 education, 227, 309, 312, 317 in New World Order, 118, 153–56, 231–32, 256, 258, 262, 268, 285, 353–54, 383 See also universities Egypt, 26, 126, 148, 150, 164 Eisenhower, Dwight, 98–99, 310, 368 Brazil policy, 218 Cuba policy, 199–200, 204 Latin America policy, 47, 51, 54, 234 Ellacuría, Ignacio, 209 El Salvador, 120–21, 211, 308 in New World Order, 247, 249, 251, 266, 269 Rio Sumpul massacre, 362 US policy toward, 51 Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 36 Engelberg, Stephen, 108–109 England, 64, 277, 389, 394 British colonialism, vii–viii, 4–6, 5, 7–10, 8–22, 26–28, 26–29, 48, 274–75, 313–15, 314, 361–62 economy of, 11–24, 72, 92–94, 110, 144–46, 343–44 in New World Order, 56, 62, 69, 73, 76–77, 97, 188–90, 214, 217, 219, 234 slavery in, x, 193, 311 US-British relations, 31–37, 193–97, 334, 337, 392 environmental crisis, 79–83, 88, 150–52, 161, 239, 245, 259, 262, 398 Episcopal Council of Latin America, 243 European Community (EC), 86, 113–14, 133, 145, 195 Evans, Gareth, 187–88 Evans, Peter, 213, 228, 230 Fagoth, Steadman, 120 Fairbank, John King, 339 Fall, Bernard, 346 Far Eastern Economic Review, 350, 370 Farmer, Paul, 272, 275 fascism, 55–57, 95, 96, 97, 222, 226–28, 254, 281, 331, 342–43 left-fascists, 69, 75–76, 81, 365 Federspiel, Howard, 182 Felix, David, 145, 228, 254–55, 258, 261 Fields, Richard, 37 Figueres, José, 57 Financial Times, 77, 84, 86, 107, 109, 358 Fitch, John, 393 Food for Peace program, 150 Foreign Affairs, 294 France, 12, 19, 23, 29, 34, 92, 93, 187, 279, 287, 340 French colonialism, 28, 95, 271–75, 281, 341, 345, 369, 374 in New World Order, 58, 65–66, 68, 86, 217, 234, 348 Francis, David, 143 Frankel, Max, 177 Franklin, Bruce, 366, 369 Fraser, Doug, 384 Freed, Kenneth, 41 Freedom House, 51, 175, 367 Freedom Support Act, 115 French, Howard, 204, 293, 295, 301–302 Frick, Henry Clay, 390 Friedman, Thomas, 52–53, 125, 127, 251–53, 262 G-7, 3–4, 41, 84–85, 115 Gaidar, Yegor, 108 Gaillard, Roger, 278 Gama, Vasco da, 3, 42 García Moreno, Victor Carlos, 243 Garrett, G.T., 15 Garthoff, Raymond, 66, 105, 350, 407n12 Gelb, Leslie, 68 General Agreement on Tarrifs and Trade (GATT), 80, 85, 88, 132, 161 Geneva Convention, 332, 369, 375 genocide, vii, 37–40, 42, 99, 140, 165–66, 180, 238–39, 252, 349, 361 George, Lloyd, 32 Germany, 5, 24, 91, 114, 219, 228, 275 in New World Order, 55, 63–65, 68, 70, 77–78, 84, 101–02, 143–145, 149, 163 in postwar period, 62–65 in WWII, 96, 167, 170, 245, 257, 328, 332, 364 Gerschenkron, Alexander, 94, 141 Gibb, Tom, 247 Gibraltar, 97 Gilpatric, Roswell, 202 Glaser, Gabrielle, 110–11 Gleijeses, Piero, 194–96 Golden, Tim, 251 Gómez, Juan Vicente, 214, 234 Gómez Lizarazo, Jorge, 121 Goodman, Amy, 189 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 100, 102, 210–11, 407n12 Gordon, Lincoln, 223–25 Gott, Richard, 401n1 Goulart, João, 223–25, 252 Gowan, Peter, 113 Gramajo, Héctor, 40–41, 181, 209, 404n39 Grant, Charles (Lord Glenelg), 311 Grau San Martín, Ramón, 197–98 Greece, 55–56 Green, David, 198, 216, 218 Green, Marshall, 171, 173–74, 176–77, 183 Greenberger, Robert, 296, 345 Greenway, H.D.S., 351–353 Grenada, xii, 93, 105, 116–17, 122, 201 Grew, Joseph, 329 Gromyko, Andrei, 203 Grotius, Hugo, 29 Guatemala, 93, 211, 242–243, 278 genocide by military, 39–41, 252 in New World Order, 81, 117, 120–21, 237–40, 243, 250, 266, 280, 296, 319 US policy toward, 51, 96, 183 Guaymí Indians, 245 Guinea-Bissau, 231 Gulf War (first), 31, 52, 69, 189, 296, 313, 339–40, 397 New World Order and, 61, 147–48 Gutman, Herbert, 389 Haberman, Clyde, 53 Hagopian, Frances, 255 Haines, Gerald, 215–21, 229–30, 254, 255 Haiti, 124, 237, 319, 330 colonial history of, 271–76 US policy toward, 124, 196, 252–53, 276–305, 307–08, 311 Haitian-American Company for Agricultural Development (SHADA), 304 Halliday, Fred, 187 Hamilton, Alexander, 194 hansei, 253, 326, 361, 373 Hanson, Simon, 218 Harberger, Arnold, 254 Hartung, William, 149 Harvard International Review, 40 Hassett, John, 43 Hatfield, Mark, 159 Haugaard, Lisa, 267 Hawaii, 334–38 Hawke, Bob, 188 Hayden, Bill, 188 Haynes, Michael, 108 Hegel, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich, 5, 153, 166–67, 311, 320 Henwood, Doug, 84 Herman, Edward, 166, 262 Hewlett, Sylvia Ann, 225 Higgenbotham, Leon, 194 Hitler, Adolf, 95, 99, 185, 211, 257, 278, 331 Ho Chi Minh, 95, 279, 368 Hockstader, Lee, 250, 298 Hoerr, John, 386 Hollings, Ernest, 327 Holroyd, John Baker (Lord Sheffield), 7 Holt, Thomas, 311 Holzman, Franklyn, 105, 408n17 Honduras, 51, 127, 206, 248, 266, 362 Hong Kong, 257 Honorat, Jean-Jacques, 289, 290, 292, 299 Huelshoff, Michael, 144 Hull, Cordell, 198, 329–30, 336, 343 human rights, 131, 139, 237–50, 257, 296, 301, 346, 398 in Colombia, 121 in Cuba, 207 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 141 in East Timor, 182–90 in El Salvador, 268 in Guatemala, 39, 404n39 in Haiti, 286–293 in Honduras, 128 in Indonesia, 168–81 in liberalism, 79 in Panama, 118–19 US policy toward, x, 42, 46, 124–25, 165–67, 298 Human Rights Watch, 290 Humboldt, Wilhelm von, 25–26 Hungary, 68, 81, 251, 396 Hunter, John, 37 Huntington, Samuel, 228–29 Hurtado, Carlos, 121 Hurtado, Maria Elena, 162 Hussein, Saddam, 37–38, 52, 54, 58, 99, 122, 124–27, 186, 209, 253 Hyland, William, 294 imperialism, xiii, 3, 22, 222, 276, 340, 343 in New World Order, 84–98, 135, 164, 172, 207, 215, 233, 238, 340, 379, 397 See also colonialism Incas, 5, 9 India, 7, 15, 329 colonialism in, 7, 8–10, 14–20, 26–27 in New World Order, 47, 163, 241, 250 textile industry, 13 See also Bengal indigenous communities, viii in the Americas, 5–6, 39, 162, 164, 238, 240–41, 273, 311, 319 in Liberia, 306–07 See also Native Americans; individual tribes Indochina, 185, 341, 367–69, 395 French policy toward, 65 Indochinese wars, 32, 175 US policy toward, 51, 98, 374–77 See also individual countries Indonesia, 225, 252, 296, 329, 349, 369 colonialism in, 7, 10 US policy toward, 51, 168–90 Industrial Biotechnology Association, 159 Inter-American Advisory Commission, 218 International Court of Justice.
The Signal: Watch Out for the Darkness by Nick Cook
However, if they have and are happy to reveal it in such an audacious manner, it raises a more serious question.’ ‘Which is?’ I asked. ‘Is this a prelude to something much, much worse?’ Graham blinked fast and took his glasses off to wipe them on his jumper. ‘Please tell me that doesn’t mean what I think it does?’ Kiera gave him a thin smile. ‘I wish I could, Graham. However, over the last thirty minutes, the world has been propelled towards the equivalent of a modern-day Cuban Missile Crisis.’ I let out a small gasp. ‘You’re not seriously saying this signal could be the prelude to all-out nuclear war?’ She gave me a straight look. ‘That’s exactly what I’m saying.’ It felt as if the air had emptied from the meeting room for a moment as the implications of her words sunk in. Graham scraped his seat backwards and stood up. ‘I need to ring Sarah so she can grab the kids and take them to their grandparents in—’ Kiera quickly held up her hand to silence him.
‘Go ahead – everyone in here has signed on the dotted line.’ John’s gaze swept over us as he nodded. ‘I’m afraid the security situation has just been raised to DEFCON 3.’ Graham stared at him. ‘Isn’t that just a couple of steps below all-out nuclear war?’ ‘It is,’ Kiera replied. ‘How the hell could things have escalated this quickly?’ ‘Unfortunately it’s a sign of the accelerated times we live in. You see, in the days of the Cuban Missile Crisis, they had plenty of time for a huge amount of behind-the-scenes diplomacy to avert armagedon. However, in today’s interconnected world, where computers automate many of our military’s responses, things can escalate far more rapidly.’ ‘So you’re saying that some trigger-happy computers are propelling us towards a potential Armageddon?’ I asked. ‘Yes, and as we speak strategic bomber groups are on the tarmac warming up their engines, ready, if and when the call comes, to take to the skies.
Rethinking Camelot by Noam Chomsky
It was, indeed, a partial defeat, but overall a significant victory. The “defense of South Vietnam” was not the only achievement of Camelot. Another was bringing “the terrors of the earth” to Cuba, in the words of Kennedy’s close associate historian Arthur Schlesinger. Kennedy’s terrorist war against Cuba, which was no small affair, was a major factor in bringing about what Schlesinger described accurately as “the most dangerous moment in history,” the Cuban missile crisis. Kennedy is much lauded for his cool courage in bringing the crisis to an end. The truth, now well established by scholarship,4 sheds little glory on the Camelot image. At the peak moment of the crisis, when Kennedy’s subjective assessment was that the probability of nuclear war was 1/3 to 1/2, he decided to reject Khrushchev’s offer to end the crisis by simultaneous public withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba and US missiles from Turkey—obsolete missiles for which a withdrawal order had already been given because they were being replaced by far more lethal and threatening Polaris submarines.
These developments tell us a good bit about the state of American culture at a time of general malaise, unfocused anger and discontent, and effective dissolution of the means for the public to become engaged in a constructive way in determining their fate.60 Notes Notes to the Preface to the 2015 Edition 1. Chomsky, For Reasons of State, Pantheon, 1973. 2. Marc Selverstone, “It’s a Date: Kennedy and the Timetable for a Vietnam Troop Withdrawal,” Diplomatic History 34.3, June 2010. 3. See N. Chomsky, “Murdering History,” in Year 501: The Conquest Continues, South End, 1993. 4. See particularly Sheldon Stern, The Cuban Missile Crisis in American Memory: Myths versus Reality, Stanford, 2012. 5. John H. Coatsworth, “The Cold War in Central America, 1975–1991,” The Cambridge History of the Cold War, vol. III, 2010. Notes to the Introduction 1. See 501 for much further discussion and sources. Also DD, and earlier work cited there. 2. On the media from 1950 through 1985, see MC and sources cited. On developments reviewed below, see my books cited in 501, and sources cited. 3.
Facing West: The Metaphysics of Indian-Hating and Empire-Building (Minnesota, 1980) Du Boff, Richard. Accumulation and Power (ME Sharpe, 1989) Duffy, Dan, ed. Informed Dissent (Vietnam Generation, Burning Cities Press, 1992) Duncanson, Denis. Government and Revolution in Vietnam (Oxford, 1968) Fall, Bernard. Last Reflections on War (Doubleday, 1967) ———, and Marcus Raskin, eds. Vietnam Reader (Vintage, 1965) Garthoff, Raymond. Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Brookings, 1987) Gibbon, William Conrad, ed. The U.S. Government and the Vietnam War, part II, 1961-1964 (Princeton, 1986) Giglio, James. The Presidency of John F. Kennedy (Kansas, 1991) Griffen, William, and John Marciano. Lessons of the Vietnam War: A Critical Examination of School Texts (Rowman and Allanheld, 1979) Herman, Edward. The Real Terror Network (South End Press, 1982) ———, and Frank Brodhead.
The Devil's Chessboard: Allen Dulles, the CIA, and the Rise of America's Secret Government by David Talbot
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Charles Lindbergh, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, information retrieval, Internet Archive, land reform, means of production, Naomi Klein, Norman Mailer, operation paperclip, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation
Rising Republican politicians also sought out the retired spy chief, including a young Illinois congressman named Donald Rumsfeld, who, decades later, would achieve notoriety for his own national security reign. Rumsfeld arranged for Dulles to speak about the CIA and Cuba to the 88th Congressional Club in March 1963, an event the ambitious congressman declared a “tremendous success.” Cuba remained the source of greatest friction within the Kennedy government. In October 1962, these tensions came close to exploding during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when virtually the entire national security circle around the president urged him to take aggressive actions that would have triggered a nuclear conflagration. JFK’s lonely stand—which was supported only by his brother and McNamara within his inner council—was a virtuoso act of leadership. As the world held its breath, the president painstakingly worked out a face-saving deal with Khrushchev that convinced the Soviet premier to withdraw his nuclear missiles from the island.
By 1963, the military and espionage officials in Kennedy’s government were all too aware of their commander in chief’s dedication to peace—a growing commitment to détente with the Communist world that, in the minds of the national security high command, demonstrated JFK’s naïveté and weakness and put the country at risk. The leadership ranks in the Pentagon and the CIA were convinced that the Cuban Missile Crisis had been the ideal opportunity for Kennedy to finally knock out the Castro regime by launching a full-scale military invasion or even a nuclear broadside. The peaceful resolution of the crisis left Kennedy’s warriors in an ugly mood. Daniel Ellsberg, who later became famous for leaking the Pentagon Papers, observed the seething fury among uniformed officers when he was serving as a young defense analyst: “There was virtually a coup atmosphere in Pentagon circles.
Twenty-five years after JFK’s death, LeMay and his top Air Force generals were still brooding about Kennedy when they sat down to be interviewed for an official Air Force oral history project. “The Kennedy administration,” LeMay growled, “thought that being as strong as we were was provocative to the Russians and likely to start a war. We in the Air Force, and I personally, believed the exact opposite.” LeMay and his generals continued to angrily replay the “lost opportunity” of the Cuban Missile Crisis: it was the moment “we could have gotten the Communists out of Cuba,” LeMay declared. “We walked Khrushchev up to the brink of nuclear war, he looked over the edge, and had no stomach for it,” said General David Burchinal, who served as LeMay’s deputy during the crisis. “We would have written our own book at that time, but our politicians did not understand what happens when you have such a degree of superiority as we had, or they simply didn’t know how to use it.
How Not to Network a Nation: The Uneasy History of the Soviet Internet (Information Policy) by Benjamin Peters
Albert Einstein, American ideology, Andrei Shleifer, Benoit Mandelbrot, bitcoin, Brownian motion, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, computer age, conceptual framework, continuation of politics by other means, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Davies, double helix, Drosophila, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death, hive mind, index card, informal economy, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jacquard loom, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, linear programming, mandelbrot fractal, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, Paul Erdős, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, scientific mainstream, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, stochastic process, technoutopianism, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, transaction costs, Turing machine
Kennedy’s top men to discuss the impending peril of Soviet cybernetics, only to have his meeting interrupted by the announcement that surveillance satellites had just uncovered photos of Soviet missiles in Cuba.109 By the time the dust settled after the Cuban missile crisis, Soviet cybernetics no longer agitated the administration, which had reviewed the science and did not deem it an urgent threat. It is a strange twist of history, then, that the international crisis that is considered the zenith of cold war hostility (the Cuban missile crisis) also defused and derailed mounting American anxieties about the “Soviet cybernetic menace.”110 Although U.S. and Soviet intelligence officers alternately fretted about or enthused over the possibilities of a cybernetically coordinated Soviet power, the facts about the practical debates among Soviet scientists point in a very different direction.
The next chapter extends and complicates this theme in its history and analysis of the central and longest-lasting attempt to network the Soviet Union. 4 Staging the OGAS, 1962 to 1969 The year 1962 proved to be a tumultuous one for the world. Khrushchev’s grasp on the reigns of the Soviet state began to slip in the face of mounting criticism, and Kennedy’s Bay of Pigs invasion metastasized into the Cuban missile crisis, probably the closest the world has yet come to a nuclear world war.1 Behind the scenes to these potentially cataclysmic situations, a small team of Soviet cyberneticists who were located in Kiev and Moscow were committed to building “electronic socialism” under the guise of the All-State Automated System, or OGAS. The OGAS Project was the Soviet Union’s attempt to build a national computer network project that would network the command economy, automate and optimize the immense coordination problems besetting that economy, and thereby speed the grand socialist experiment toward a prosperous and stable Communist future.
See also ARPANET (Advanced Research Projects Agency Network); ASU (avtomatizirovannaya sistema upravleniya); OGAS (obshche-gosudarstvennaya avtomatizirovannya sistema) project aborted attempts, 12 beliefs and debate about, 8, 169 and chess, 176, 178–180 civilian, 91, 94, 97 and closed cultures, 192 definitions of, 10 distributed, 55, 94, 96, 100, 120 EASU (Economic Automatic Management System), 81, 86–87, 91, 103–104 global-local, 121–122 heterarchical, 57, 96, 175 and human condition, 203–204 literature on, 8–9 military, 7, 12, 83, 86–89, 93–94, 144 national, 54–56, 97–98, 100, 119–120 packet-switching, 94–96, 198, 200 and private interests, 200, 202–203 rational system for economic control, 101–105 and social change, 171–172 survivable, 95, 97 Unified Communication System (ESS), 81, 97–101, 103–104 Computers brain-computer analogy, 18, 27, 95–96, 100, 118–119 chess programs, 179 and cybernetic sciences, 16, 37 and economic calculations, 84–85 first electronic computers, 126 and military innovations, 83 minds as, 18, 37–38, 53–54, 119 and nuclear bombs, 25 personal, 186 Soviet term for, 10 Soviet terms for, 38 Computers, Chess, and Long-Range Planning, 177 Computer technology, 3, 8, 104–105 Conditioned reflexes, 34, 40 Cooley, Charles Horton, 55, 202 Council for Cybernetics, 44 Council of Ministers, 214 CSA (tsentral’noe statisticheskoe upravleniye). See Central Statistical Administration (CSA) Cuban missile crisis, 45 Cybernetic Revolutionaries: Technology and Politics in Allende’s Chile, 9 Cybernetics, 3, 11–12. See also Economic cybernetics; Soviet cybernetics American consolidation of, 17–24 brain-computer analogy, 18, 27, 95–96, 100, 118–119 Chile, 27–28 as communication science, 21 and computers, 16, 37 contemporary scholarship, 7–9 defining, 15–16, 45–46 eastern Europe, 28 England, 26–27 feedback loops, 21–22 France, 25–26 heterarchy, 22–24 and information/game theory, 20 Macy Conferences on Cybernetics, 18–19 methodology, 20 and models of mind, 29 origin of term, 17 as postwar systems science, 15, 24 Soviet criticism of, 30–32 vocabulary of, 16, 19 Cybernetics, or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine, 17–18, 30, 35–37, 47, 50, 82, 198 Cybernetics: In the Service of Communism, 44, 46 Cybersyn network, 9, 27–28, 54, 197, 199 Cybertonia, 130–136 Danil’chenko, I.
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making for an Unknowable Future by Mervyn King, John Kay
"Robert Solow", Airbus A320, Albert Einstein, Albert Michelson, algorithmic trading, Antoine Gombaud: Chevalier de Méré, Arthur Eddington, autonomous vehicles, availability heuristic, banking crisis, Barry Marshall: ulcers, battle of ideas, Benoit Mandelbrot, bitcoin, Black Swan, Bonfire of the Vanities, Brownian motion, business cycle, business process, capital asset pricing model, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, discounted cash flows, disruptive innovation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Edmond Halley, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, Edward Thorp, Elon Musk, Ethereum, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, experimental subject, fear of failure, feminist movement, financial deregulation, George Akerlof, germ theory of disease, Hans Rosling, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, income per capita, incomplete markets, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, Johannes Kepler, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Snow's cholera map, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, mandelbrot fractal, market bubble, market fundamentalism, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Nash equilibrium, Nate Silver, new economy, Nick Leeson, Northern Rock, oil shock, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, Pierre-Simon Laplace, popular electronics, price mechanism, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, railway mania, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, sealed-bid auction, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Socratic dialogue, South Sea Bubble, spectrum auction, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Tacoma Narrows Bridge, Thales and the olive presses, Thales of Miletus, The Chicago School, the map is not the territory, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Davenport, Thomas Malthus, Toyota Production System, transaction costs, ultimatum game, urban planning, value at risk, World Values Survey, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game
On Tuesday, 16 October 1962, Kennedy was informed that a U-2 reconnaissance flight had produced evidence of Russian missile sites under construction in Cuba. The photographs were presented to a meeting in the White House by the CIA. Those present formed a group of senior Cabinet members and officials, later to be called the Ex-Comm, which met almost continuously for the thirteen days of what became known as the Cuban Missile Crisis. The prospect of nuclear missiles based so close to the US mainland was unacceptable. How should the President respond? Rather quickly, the choices were narrowed down to two: a naval quarantine that would intercept further Russian ships en route to Cuba, or an airstrike on all military installations in Cuba followed by an invasion. Opinion among the group was sharply divided. The quarantine would not remove the missiles already in Cuba, and the airstrike ran the risk of an escalation to an all-out nuclear war.
Having arrived at the best explanation, it is important to open that explanation to challenge and be ready to change the guiding narrative when new information emerges. The mistakes made by people who enjoyed the flattery of supportive sycophants – George W. Bush planning the Iraq war, or Dick Fuld leading Lehman to self-destruction – contrast with the achievements of those who were not afraid of honest critique: Alfred Sloan building the world’s most successful corporation, the chastened John F. Kennedy responding to the challenge of the Cuban Missile Crisis. A narrative was in the minds of the Republican ideologues in the George W. Bush administration who believed that the rapid establishment of a stock exchange in Iraq was a central building block of stability and democracy, but it was a narrative constructed from a priori assertions rather than from specific – or any – knowledge of Iraqi politics and culture. Beware the narrative of the hedgehog derived from ‘universal’ explanations, ideologies and grand theories, or from formal axioms based on abstract reasoning.
., Other People’s Money (London: Profile, 2015) Kay, J. A. and King, M. A., ‘USS Crisis: Can the Pension System be Reformed?’, Times Higher Education (6 Sept 2018) Keating, J., ‘In his Heart, Rick Santorum Knows that Dutch People are Forcibly Euthanized’, Foreign Policy (12 Mar 2012) Kennedy, G., The Art of Persuasion in Greece (London: Routledge, 1963) Kennedy, R. F., Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: Norton, 1999) Kennes, R. and Smets, P., ‘The Transferable Belief Model’, Artificial Intelligence , Vol. 66, No. 2 (1994), 191–234 Keren, G., ‘A Tale of Two Systems: A Scientific Advance or a Theoretical Stone Soup? Commentary on Evans and Stanovich (2013)’, Perspectives on Psychological Science , Vol. 8, No. 3 (2013), 257–62 Keren, G. and Schul, Y., ‘Two Is Not Always Better than One: A Critical Evaluation of Two-System Theories’, Perspectives on Psychological Science , Vol. 4, No. 6 (2009), 533–50 Keynes, G. and Keynes, J.
The Defence of the Realm by Christopher Andrew
active measures, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Clive Stafford Smith, collective bargaining, credit crunch, cuban missile crisis, Desert Island Discs, Etonian, Fall of the Berlin Wall, G4S, glass ceiling, illegal immigration, job satisfaction, large denomination, liquidationism / Banker’s doctrine / the Treasury view, Mahatma Gandhi, Mikhail Gorbachev, Neil Kinnock, North Sea oil, post-work, Red Clydeside, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, strikebreaker, Torches of Freedom, traveling salesman, union organizing, uranium enrichment, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, Winter of Discontent
The Foreign Office paid little, if any, attention to the warning. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, Ward was used once again, this time on the initiative of the Russians, as a confidential channel for communications between Moscow and London. MI5 ‘again drew the attention of the Foreign Office to the dangers of using Ward for such purposes’.70 Already fond of boasting about his close contacts with the highest in the land, Ward interpreted his use as a back-channel between Moscow and London at the most dangerous moment of the Cold War as proof that Whitehall had assigned him a major role as an intermediary between East and West. MI5 was informed by a source whom it believed to be reliable: Ward says that at the height of the Cuban missile crisis . . . Ivanov brought another Russian official, (Vitalij) Loginov [chargé d’affaires] to see Ward: ‘We had practically a Cabinet meeting one night.
One recalls Mitchell as a ‘civilised, humane man’, considerate in his treatment of junior colleagues. 55 See below, p. 509. 56 Security Service Archives. 57 Security Service Archives. 58 Security Service Archives. 59 Security Service Archives. 60 Interview with Ward by Warwick Charlton, Today, 11 May 1963. 61 Security Service Archives. 62 Security Service Archives. 63 Security Service Archives. 64 Security Service Archives. 65 Security Service Archives. 66 Security Service Archives. 67 Security Service Archives. 68 Security Service Archives. 69 Security Service Archives. 70 Security Service Archives. 71 Security Service Archives. Ward later gave a similarly inflated account of his role during the Cuban Missile Crisis to the writer Warwick Charlton, who published it in Today on 11 May 1963. 72 Scott, Macmillan, Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis, pp. 104–7. 73 Security Service Archives. 74 Security Service Archives. 75 Knightley and Kennedy, Affair of State, ch. 1. 76 Introduction by Lord Denning to 1992 reissue of The Denning Report. 77 Security Service Archives. 78 Security Service Archives. 79 Christopher Andrew, interview with Sir Dick White, 1984. 80 Security Service Archives. 81 Security Service Archives. 82 Security Service Archives. 83 Security Service Archives. 84 Pearson, Profession of Violence, pp. 115–16, 120, 122.
Hollis, who is Sir Dick White’s deputy.’46 At the time White gave Hollis his enthusiastic support.47 He later changed his mind, writing in a sympathetic obituary that, though respected within the Service during his nine years as DG, Hollis ‘did not enjoy easy personal relations with its ordinary members who tended to find him reserved and aloof’.48 Some, probably many, did not meet him at all. One staff member who encountered Hollis in the lift and failed to recognize him, said: ‘Oh, we haven’t met. What section are you?’ ‘I am the DG,’ replied Hollis.49 Perhaps the ultimate example of Hollis’s remote management style came during the thirteen days of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, the most dangerous moment in British history. Though the crisis was caused by the American discovery of Soviet nuclear missile bases under construction in Cuba, the threat to Britain, the United States’ chief ally, was even greater than to America itself. There must have seemed to many Service staff, as to much of the British population, a real danger that the crisis would end in thermonuclear warfare and the obliteration of the United Kingdom.
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts by Shane Parrish
Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, Barry Marshall: ulcers, bitcoin, Black Swan, colonial rule, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, delayed gratification, feminist movement, index fund, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, mandelbrot fractal, Pierre-Simon Laplace, Ponzi scheme, Richard Feynman, statistical model, stem cell, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the map is not the territory, the scientific method, Thomas Bayes, Torches of Freedom
It’s harder to take advantage of, or even see, opportunities while in this defensive mode because our priority is saving ourselves—which tends to reduce our vision to dealing with the perceived threat instead of examining the bigger picture. _ By not assuming the worst, Vasili Arkhipov single-handedly avoided nuclear war with the Americans. The man who saved the world On October 27, 1962, Vasili Arkhipov stayed calm, didn’t assume malice, and saved the world. Seriously. This was the height of the Cuban missile crisis. Tensions were high between the United States and the Soviet Union. The world felt on the verge of nuclear war, a catastrophic outcome for all. American destroyers and Soviet subs were in a standoff in the waters off Cuba. Although they were technically in International waters, the Americans had informed the Soviets that they would be dropping blank depth charges to force the Soviet submarines to surface.
New York: Random House, 2011. 3 Wilde, Oscar. “The Critic as Artist, Part 2.” Intentions. London: Heinemann and Balestier, 1891. 4 Heather, Peter. The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History of Rome and the Barbarians. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006. 5 Gibbon, Edward. The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, New York: Everyman’s Library, 1910. 6 Roberts, Priscilla. Cuban Missile Crisis: The Essential Reference Guide. Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO, 2012.
GCHQ by Richard Aldrich
belly landing, Berlin Wall, British Empire, colonial exploitation, cuban missile crisis, friendly fire, illegal immigration, index card, lateral thinking, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, Neil Kinnock, New Journalism, packet switching, private military company, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, social intelligence, South China Sea, undersea cable, University of East Anglia, Yom Kippur War, Zimmermann PGP
Indeed, NSA staff who listened in to Soviet radars and fighter controllers during the Gary Powers flight argued that he had only been shot down because, quite inexplicably, he was flying at only thirty-five thousand feet and was heading in the wrong direction (British intelligence sources seem to confirm this story).5 In late June 1960 the CIA’s Director, Allen Dulles, confided to a friend that he was sure Powers ‘was not shot down at normal altitude’, but later the CIA and NSA fell into a bitter dispute over exactly how the U-2 had been intercepted by the Soviets.6 The Gary Powers shootdown triggered a major diplomatic confrontation between Moscow, Washington and London. The incident encapsulated many of the wider international trends of the 1960s. During the decade there were major flashpoints such as the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. There were also serious confrontations in the Third World, the largest being the Vietnam War, which kept the temperature at boiling point. Although engaged in an arms race, East and West had achieved nuclear parity, signalled by the deployment of Soviet missiles which could reach the American homeland. In theory at least, all-out confrontation now seemed to be a remote possibility because of nuclear deterrence.
After all, deterrence was supposed to ensure that the north German plains would remain the Cold War’s frozen front, with little likelihood of real conflict. In fact, by the early 1960s a number of crises had created a climate of growing anxiety. Confrontations over Berlin and Cuba, together with the escalating conflict in Vietnam, made war seem somewhat closer. Alarmingly, American sigint had failed to give much warning about the emerging Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. The Six-Day War in 1967 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 were also unsettling for commanders. More generally, throughout the 1960s there was a growing awareness that NATO’s conventional inferiority in numbers, especially in northern Germany, might call for the early use of nuclear weapons to stem the tide of a Warsaw Pact attack. A better intelligence flow was required, not only for warning, but also for decision-making in any nuclear crisis.27 Indeed, in 1968, even before the invasion of Czechoslovakia, London and Washington began thinking the unthinkable.
Meanwhile, the American NSA was developing a fleet of Technical Research Ships, consisting of converted supply ships and Second World War Liberty ships (vessels that had been hastily produced for convoy duty); it was these latter developments that had caught Cheltenham’s eye. The first vessel in NSA’s Technical Research Ship programme was the USS Oxford, a converted Liberty ship which put to sea in 1961. Its flexibility was immediately apparent as it floated from one trouble spot to another, admittedly at an ambulatory pace of just eleven knots. It proved especially successful during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Accordingly, during the 1960s four more ships in the Oxford class were launched: the Georgetown, the Jamestown, the Belmont and the Liberty. Three smaller ships joined the listening fleet, based on converted military transports: the Valdez, the Muller and finally the Pueblo, which entered service in 1968. However, the American sigint budgets were tight in the 1960s, and while all these vessels were refurbished, they had nevertheless seen better days.2 In 1964, partly as a result of advice from the Hampshire review, GCHQ decided that it would go one better, creating a purpose-built sigint ship, in contrast to the Americans’ elderly converted transports.3 The cover name chosen for this exciting new project was the ‘Communications Trials Ship’.
Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Explain Everything About the World (Politics of Place) by Tim Marshall
9 dash line, Admiral Zheng, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, British Empire, California gold rush, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, drone strike, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Hans Island, Kickstarter, LNG terminal, market fragmentation, megacity, Mercator projection distort size, especially Greenland and Africa, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, oil shale / tar sands, Scramble for Africa, South China Sea, trade route, transcontinental railway, Transnistria, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, zero-sum game
For most of the nineteenth century, foreign policy was dominated by expanding trade and avoiding entanglements outside the neighborhood, but it was time to push out and protect the approaches to the coastlines. The only real threat was from Spain—it may have been persuaded to leave the mainland, but it still controlled the islands of Cuba, Puerto Rico, and part of what is now the Dominican Republic. Cuba in particular kept American presidents awake at night, as it would again in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The island sits just off Florida, giving it access to and potential control of the Straits of Florida and the Yucatán Channel in the Gulf of Mexico. This is the exit and entry route for the port of New Orleans. Spain’s power may have been diminishing toward the end of the nineteenth century, but it was still a formidable military force. In 1898, the US declared war on Spain, routed its military, and gained control of Cuba, with Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines thrown in for good measure.
The English language even has two sayings that demonstrate how deeply ingrained the idea is: “Give them an inch and they’ll take a mile,” and President Theodore Roosevelt’s maxim of 1900, which has now entered the political lexicon: “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” The deadly game in this century will be how the Chinese, Americans, and others in the region manage each crisis that arises without losing face and without building up a deep well of resentment and anger on both sides. The Cuban Missile Crisis is generally considered an American victory; what is less publicized is that several months after Russia removed its missiles from Cuba, the United States removed its Jupiter missiles (which could reach Moscow) from Turkey. It was actually a compromise, with both sides, eventually, able to tell their respective publics that they had not capitulated. In the twenty-first-century Pacific there are more great-power compromises to be made.
See also names of specific states and Afghanistan, 4–5 and Africa, 84 and Arctic/Arctic Circle, 243, 249, 253–54 and Canada, 62–63, 65, 66 and China, 38–39, 78–83 Cold War, 81, 94, 107, 118, 198–200, 205, 221, 235, 251–53 colonial period, 66–70 and Cuba, 72–73, 195 drones, 124–25, 148–49, 183, 186–87 and drugs, 224–25 energy resources, 33, 82, 84 geography in dictating foreign policy, 7 and Germany, 75 Hispanic population, 71, 222 and India, 191–92 and Iran, 82–83 and Iraq, 84 and Israel, 83 and Japan, 74, 75, 78–79, 81, 200, 208–13 and Korea, 79–80, 194, 198–200 languages, 71, 80, 89, 222 laser technology, 262–63 and Latin America, 83, 226–27, 229–30, 231, 235 and Mexico, 62–63, 66, 70–71, 222–23 Native American nations, 66, 67, 69, 71–72 naval capacity, 38–39, 53–54, 72–74, 75, 78, 79, 82–83, 160 prospects for, 64, 84–85 and Russia, 77–78 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, 28, 182–83, 186, 188 space exploration, 262 and Spain, 67, 69–73 strategic depth, 6, 62–63, 64–73 and United Kingdom, 66–67, 75, 78, 238 U.S. Geological Survey, 248 Ural Mountains, 8–9, 11–13, 15–17, 28, 92 Uruguay, 215, 230–31, 232, 233–34, 236 Ürümqi, 36–37, 50, 57 USSR, 13–14, 16, 199, 212. See also Russia Afghanistan invasion (1979), 18–19, 177, 181 Cold War, 81, 94, 107, 118, 198–200, 205, 221, 235, 251–53 collapse of, 17, 19–21, 28, 30, 95, 253 Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), 72–73 space exploration, 261–62 Utah, 62–63, 71 Uzbekistan, 8–9, 20, 133 Vaca Muerta shale formation, 236–37, 238 Venezuela, 34, 215, 218, 220, 221, 227, 229, 230–31, 233–34, 235 Victoria Island, 240–41 Vietnam, 36–37, 45–46, 55, 57–58, 76, 78–79, 191 Vladivostok, 8–9, 19, 36–37, 45, 194 Wang Jing, 227–28 War of the Pacific (1879), 220–21 Warsaw Pact, 13–14, 20–21, 97 Washington, George, 74 water supplies, 47, 120–22, 125, 131–32, 179–80, 191, 207, 218, 228, 232, 261 West Bank, 142, 153, 153–56 Western Europe, 86–87, 88–108.
A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order by Richard Haass
access to a mobile phone, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, central bank independence, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, deindustrialization, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, floating exchange rates, global pandemic, global reserve currency, hiring and firing, immigration reform, invisible hand, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, open economy, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, special drawing rights, Steven Pinker, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War
See weapons of mass destruction Chemical Weapons Convention, 61 China, 79–92, 223–24 and Africa, 194 and Asia-Pacific region, 9, 89, 90–91, 180–81, 182–83, 263–64, 328n12 and Cold War, 47, 50, 80, 84–85 and cyberspace, 143 and Gulf War, 87–88 and humanitarian concerns, 82–84, 229–30 and Libya intervention, 162 and North Korea, 88–89, 241, 263–64 and South Asia, 125, 128–29, 265 and Taiwan, 58, 84–87, 90 and trade, 80–82, 87, 89, 90, 146 and U.S. debt, 295–96 U.S. relations with, 79–92, 216–24 Chou En-lai, 80 Churchill, Winston, 95 civil conflict, 110–22 in Haiti, 113 in Iraq, 111–12, 154–55, 173–75, 231 in Libya, 163 and Responsibility to Protect, 115–17 Rwanda crisis, 113–15, 116–17 in Somalia, 112–13 and terrorism, 119–22 See also Arab Spring; Responsibility to Protect; Syrian crisis climate change, 10, 89, 138–40, 244–45 Clinton (William J.) administration, 93, 109, 112–13, 128, 177 coalitions of the willing, 200 Cold War, 37–54, 210 and arms control, 42–44, 50 and balance of power, 38–39, 41, 50 and bipolarity, 46–47, 202 and China, 47, 50, 80, 84–85 and Cuban missile crisis, 48–50 end of, 2–3, 51–54, 72, 93, 103, 210 and Europe, 50–51, 70, 188–89 and nuclear weapons, 41–42 and South Asia, 183, 184 and sovereignty, 45–46, 51 spheres of influence, 47–48 World War II origins of, 37–38 Concert of Europe, 24–25, 26 Conference of Parties (COP21), 139–40 confidence-building measures (CBMs), 262 containment, 46, 53, 218, 289 Crimea. See Ukraine Cuban missile crisis, 48–50 cyberspace, 10, 140–44, 245–47 Czechoslovakia, 106, 108 decolonization, 61–63, 67–68, 71, 72 détente, 49 deterrence, 42, 43–44, 217, 240 development, 56, 65 See also economics diplomacy, 26–27, 81, 132–33, 219–20, 251, 261, 282–83 Cold War, 44 post–World War II, 57, 65, 67 and South Asia, 184–85 and Syrian crisis, 171–72 and weapons of mass destruction, 132–33 See also United Nations Doha (Development) Round, 146–47 East China Sea dispute, 90, 181 economics, 9–11, 90, 248–49 and post–Cold War global cooperation, 145–49 post–World War II, 56–57, 65–66 and U.S. policy, 251, 290–92, 329n4 See also monetary systems; trade education, 291, 300–302 Egypt, 63, 69, 157–58, 167, 230, 278 ethnic cleansing, 109 Europe, 188–91, 284–86 Cold War, 50–51, 70 Helsinki Accords, 50–51, 261–62 Partnership for Peace, 95, 96 post–World War II, 61, 69–70 See also European integration; European Union; Yugoslav transition European integration, 35, 61, 73, 188–91 European Union, 97, 108, 143, 188–89, 285–86 Brexit, 1–2, 9, 12, 191 failed states, 111 G-7/G-8, 199 G-20, 199–200 Gadhafi, Muammar, 136, 161 Gates, Robert, 185 GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), 57, 65, 145 Genocide Convention, 64, 66–67, 116, 234 Georgia, 96–97, 222 Germany, 32–35, 231 global health, 10, 144–45, 247–48 globalization, 11, 148, 226, 233–34, 244 See also trade Gorbachev, Mikhail, 52–53 Great Depression, 32 great-power relations.
Emma Sky, The Unraveling: High Hopes and Missed Opportunities in Iraq (New York: PublicAffairs, 2015). 25. There is no end to the literature that examines foreign policy decision making. Some of the best books include Richard Neustadt and Ernest May, Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers (New York: Free Press, 1986); Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Addison Wesley, 1999); Morton H. Halperin and Priscilla A. Clapp with Arnold Kanter, Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2006); and Gordon Goldstein, Lessons in Disaster: McGeorge Bundy and the Path to War in Vietnam (New York: Times Books, 2008). On the role and functioning of the National Security Council under different presidents, see Ivo H.
Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress by Steven Pinker
3D printing, access to a mobile phone, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, Arthur Eddington, artificial general intelligence, availability heuristic, Ayatollah Khomeini, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Bonfire of the Vanities, business cycle, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, clockwork universe, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, distributed generation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, double helix, effective altruism, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, end world poverty, endogenous growth, energy transition, European colonialism, experimental subject, Exxon Valdez, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, frictionless, frictionless market, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, Hans Rosling, hedonic treadmill, helicopter parent, Hobbesian trap, humanitarian revolution, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, Jaron Lanier, Joan Didion, job automation, Johannes Kepler, John Snow's cholera map, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, l'esprit de l'escalier, Laplace demon, life extension, long peace, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Nate Silver, Nathan Meyer Rothschild: antibiotics, Nelson Mandela, New Journalism, Norman Mailer, nuclear winter, obamacare, open economy, Paul Graham, peak oil, Peter Singer: altruism, Peter Thiel, precision agriculture, prediction markets, purchasing power parity, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, Republic of Letters, Richard Feynman, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Rodney Brooks, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Rory Sutherland, Saturday Night Live, science of happiness, Scientific racism, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, Stuxnet, supervolcano, technological singularity, Ted Kaczynski, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, union organizing, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, War on Poverty, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, women in the workforce, working poor, World Values Survey, Y2K
Scientists have founded the major activist and watchdog organizations, including the Union of Concerned Scientists, the Federation of American Scientists, the Committee for Nuclear Responsibility, the Pugwash Conferences, and the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, whose cover shows the famous Doomsday Clock, now set at two and a half minutes to midnight.69 Physical scientists, unfortunately, often consider themselves experts in political psychology, and many seem to embrace the folk theory that the most effective way to mobilize public opinion is to whip people into a lather of fear and dread. The Doomsday Clock, despite adorning a journal with “Scientists” in its title, does not track objective indicators of nuclear security; rather, it’s a propaganda stunt intended, in the words of its founder, “to preserve civilization by scaring men into rationality.”70 The clock’s minute hand was farther from midnight in 1962, the year of the Cuban Missile Crisis, than it was in the far calmer 2007, in part because the editors, worried that the public had become too complacent, redefined “doomsday” to include climate change.71 And in their campaign to shake people out of their apathy, scientific experts have made some not-so-prescient predictions: Only the creation of a world government can prevent the impending self-destruction of mankind. —Albert Einstein, 195072 I have a firm belief that unless we have more serious and sober thought on various aspects of the strategic problem . . . we are not going to reach the year 2000—and maybe not even the year 1965—without a cataclysm.
Foremost is a historical discovery summarized by the political scientist Robert Jervis: “The Soviet archives have yet to reveal any serious plans for unprovoked aggression against Western Europe, not to mention a first strike against the United States.”89 That means that the intricate weaponry and strategic doctrines for nuclear deterrence during the Cold War—what one political scientist called “nuclear metaphysics”—were deterring an attack that the Soviets had no interest in launching in the first place.90 When the Cold War ended, the fear of massive invasions and preemptive nuclear strikes faded with it, and (as we shall see) both sides felt relaxed enough to slash their weapon stockpiles without even bothering with formal negotiations.91 Contrary to a theory of technological determinism in which nuclear weapons start a war all by themselves, the risk very much depends on the state of international relations. Much of the credit for the absence of nuclear war between great powers must go to the forces behind the decline of war between great powers (chapter 11). Anything that reduces the risk of war reduces the risk of nuclear war. The close calls, too, may not depend on a supernatural streak of good luck. Several political scientists and historians who have analyzed documents from the Cuban Missile Crisis, particularly transcripts of John F. Kennedy’s meetings with his security advisors, have argued that despite the participants’ recollections about having pulled the world back from the brink of Armageddon, “the odds that the Americans would have gone to war were next to zero.”92 The records show that Khrushchev and Kennedy remained in firm control of their governments, and that each sought a peaceful end to the crisis, ignoring provocations and leaving themselves several options for backing down.
Odds next to zero: Welch & Blight 1987–88, p. 27; see also Blight, Nye, & Welch 1987, p. 184; Frankel 2004; Mueller 2010a, pp. 38–40, p. 248, notes 31–33. 93. Nuclear safety features prevent accidents: Mueller 2010a, pp. 100–102; Evans, Ogilvie-White, & Thakur 2014, p. 56; J. Mueller, “Fire, Fire (Review of E. Schlosser’s ‘Command and Control’),” Times Literary Supplement, March 7, 2014. Note that the common claim that the Soviet navy officer Vasili Arkhipov “saved the world” during the Cuban Missile Crisis by overruling an embattled submarine captain who was about to fire a nuclear-tipped torpedo at American ships is cast in doubt by Aleksandr Mozgovoi’s 2002 book Kubinskaya Samba Kvarteta Fokstrotov (Cuban Samba of the Quartet of Foxtrots), in which Vadim Pavlovich Orlov, a communications officer who took part in the events, reports that the captain had spontaneously backed off from his impulse: Mozgovoi 2002.
The Pentagon: A History by Steve Vogel
Trewhitt, McNamara, 107; Dino A. Brugioni, Eyeball to Eyeball: The Inside Story of the Cuban Missile Crisis, 415, 398; Raymond, Power at the Pentagon, 10–12. A private elevator Ibid.; Goldberg, The Pentagon, 144; National Military Command Center System history draft, NMCC, 18 Aug. 1986, OSD HO. The reality was strange enough George C. Wilson, “From Strangelovian to Prosaic,” WP, 10 July 1976; Raymond, Power at the Pentagon, 10–12. Yet the National Military Brugioni, Eyeball to Eyeball, 399–400. “It was a means” Transcript, forum on Fortieth Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, 18 Oct. 2002, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, www.iop.harvard.edu/pdfs/transcripts/cuban_missile_crisis_10.18.02.pdf, (hereafter fortieth anniversary transcript, Harvard). At 9:45 that evening Elie Abel, The Missile Crisis, 154; Brugioni, Eyeball to Eyeball, 384, 416.
Instead, he stared at the tens of thousands of marchers approaching the Pentagon. “Christ, yes, I was scared,” McNamara later said. “You had to be scared. A mob is an uncontrollable force.” The true and high church It had been almost exactly twenty-five years since George Marshall and Henry Stimson had moved into the Pentagon in November 1942, but no celebrations were planned in the fall of 1967. In the five years since the Cuban Missile Crisis, the tiny American presence in Vietnam had escalated with the introduction of ground forces in 1965 and would soon reach 500,000 troops, with no end in sight. By October, more than 13,000 Americans had been killed and 86,000 wounded. Public opinion was turning against the war, fired both by the growing number of casualties and by reports on great suffering in Vietnam. By mid-1967, for the first time, a near-majority of Americans believed the war was a mistake.
Five elements of the building were given historic status: the five outer façades; the center courtyard and surrounding façades; the Mall terrace; the River terrace; and the distinctive five-sided shape. Finally, the figures who had strode along its corridors—from Marshall and Stimson, to Forrestal, Eisenhower, McNamara, Powell, and many others—and the decisions they made, for better or worse, in its command centers and executive suites—about the atomic bomb, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam, and beyond—pointed irrefutably to the extraordinary role the building had played in American history since World War II. The Pentagon, the nomination concluded, “is of an exceptional level of historic significance.” The Pentagon was now officially a landmark. There was no choice but to fix it. They wanted the noise to stop It was shades of 1942. The “rata-tat-tat” of jackhammers always seemed to be followed by the “whomp-whomp” of impact drills.
Distrust That Particular Flavor by William Gibson
AltaVista, British Empire, cognitive dissonance, cuban missile crisis, edge city, informal economy, Joi Ito, means of production, megastructure, pattern recognition, proxy bid, telepresence, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog
Buk’s window, for me, has been like gazing into the back reaches of some cave where Manhattan stores its dreams. There is no knowing what might appear there. Once, a stove-sized, florally ornate cast-iron fragment that might have been a leftover part of the Brooklyn Bridge. Once, a lovingly crafted plywood box containing exquisitely painted models of every ballistic missile in the arsenals of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. at the time of its making. This last, redolent of both the Cold War and the Cuban Missile Crisis, had particularly held my attention. It was obviously a military learning aid, and I wondered what sort of lectures it had illustrated. It seemed, then, a relic from a dark and terrible time that I remembered increasingly as a dream, a very bad dream, of childhood. But the image that kept coming to me, last week, was of the dust that must be settling on the ledge of E. Buk’s window, more or less between Houston and Canal streets.
They are the italics of the perpetually impatient and somehow perpetually unworldly futurist, seeing his model going terminally wrong in the hands of the less clever, the less evolved. And they are with us today, those italics, though I’ve long since learned to run shy of science fiction that employs them. I suspect that I began to distrust that particular flavor of italics when the world didn’t end in October of 1962. I can’t recall the resolution of the Cuban Missile Crisis at all. My anxiety, and the world’s, reached some absolute peak. And then declined, history moving on, so much of it, and sometimes today the world of my own childhood strikes me as scarcely less remote than the world of Wells’s childhood, so much has changed in the meantime. I may actually have begun to distrust science fiction, then, or rather to trust it differently, as my initial passion for it began to decline, around that time.
Imperial Ambitions: Conversations on the Post-9/11 World by Noam Chomsky, David Barsamian
British Empire, collective bargaining, cuban missile crisis, declining real wages, failed state, feminist movement, Howard Zinn, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, liberation theology, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, offshore financial centre, Ronald Reagan, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, Westphalian system
Dean Acheson, a respected elder statesman and a senior adviser to the Kennedy administration, delivered a lecture to the American Society of International Law in which he stated that no “legal issue” arises if the United States responds to any challenge to its “power, position, and prestige.”5 The timing of his statement is quite significant. He made it shortly after the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, which virtually drove the world to the edge of nuclear war. The Cuban missile crisis was largely a result of a major campaign of international terrorism aimed at overthrowing Castro—what’s now called regime change, which spurred Cuba to bring in Russian missiles as a defensive measure. Acheson argued that the United States had the right of preventive war against a mere challenge to our position and prestige, not even a threat to our existence.
Near and Distant Neighbors: A New History of Soviet Intelligence by Jonathan Haslam
active measures, Albert Einstein, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bolshevik threat, Bretton Woods, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, falling living standards, John von Neumann, lateral thinking, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, Ronald Reagan, Valery Gerasimov, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, éminence grise
To find all that was needed, however, they had to create an incident at a market stall, resulting in her interrogation by the police for purported theft, which implausibly stretched out for a total of five gruelling hours, surely a record even for the militia. The burglars found what they were looking for: three Minox cameras, dictaphones, cipher tables, instructions on communications, and money. Fearing he might flee, and with Khrushchev’s permission, they arrested Pen’kovskii (by then handled by the Americans) on October 22, 1962, the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Since all the evidence was in, and he was a weak man in an impossible situation, it was not hard to find Pen’kovskii guilty of having passed to CIA and MI5 more than five thousand photographs of secret information. After standing trial, he was shot on May 18, 1963.75 Serov, too, was punished for being duped so easily. He was dismissed on February 2, 1963, and successively demoted and stripped of Party membership.
But he, too, was affronted at having to work as a subordinate to Americans in the NATO high command who had been too young to experience the reality of war. From de la Salle, Moscow secured NATO’s plans for war, including the entire list of targets and the payload destined for the destruction of Warsaw Pact forces.76 Crisis over Missiles in Cuba: Operation Anadyr Lagging behind in the strategic nuclear arms race as the Americans extended their advantage with every passing year, Khrushchev sought a short cut. This was how the Cuban Missile Crisis erupted in October 1962. The Russians always called this the Caribbean crisis—that is to say, it had little to do with Cuba itself. At this point, Georgii Bol’shakov found a place in history. Trained for military intelligence in 1943, Bol’shakov was soon fluent in English. In 1951 he was despatched to the United States under cover as the TASS correspondent in Washington, D.C. There he established working relationships with American journalists before returning to Moscow.
It was also confident of being able to match the spy satellite capabilities of the Americans before the decade was out. Under Khrushchev, the moments of relief from constant confrontation proved fleeting. The pressure exerted on the West in Europe and the Third World was persistent and probing. The détente that the European democracies, in particular, had dreamed of under Khrushchev faded all too rapidly with the Berlin crisis between 1958 and 1961, capped by the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. However much both sides in the Cold War wished to avoid open conflict, the search for marginal advantage proved unending. There would therefore be no relief from the ongoing Cold War, in spite of treaties on the banning of atomic tests and a treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. These measures were simply palliatives, not significant enough to halt further intensification of the war between intelligence services.
The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined by Steven Pinker
1960s counterculture, affirmative action, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, British Empire, Broken windows theory, business cycle, California gold rush, Cass Sunstein, citation needed, clean water, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, crack epidemic, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, demographic transition, desegregation, Doomsday Clock, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, experimental subject, facts on the ground, failed state, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, fudge factor, full employment, George Santayana, ghettoisation, Gini coefficient, global village, Henri Poincaré, Hobbesian trap, humanitarian revolution, impulse control, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, long peace, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Marshall McLuhan, mass incarceration, McMansion, means of production, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Singer: altruism, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, Republic of Letters, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, security theater, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, South China Sea, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, Turing machine, twin studies, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, zero-sum game
Territory most important issue in war: Vasquez, 2009, pp. 165–66. 169. Territorial integrity norm: Zacher, 2001. 170. Cognitive landmarks in positive-sum negotiation: Schelling, 1960. 171. Higher value on life: Luard, 1986, p. 268. 172. Khrushchev: Quoted in Mueller, 2004a, p. 74. 173. Carter’s restraint: “Carter defends handling of hostage crisis,” Boston Globe, Nov. 17, 2009. 174. Saving face during the Cuban Missile Crisis: Glover, 1999, p. 202. 175. RFK on Cuban Missile Crisis: Kennedy, 1969/1999, p. 49. 176. Khrushchev and Kennedy pulling on a knot: Quoted in Glover, 1999, p. 202. 177. Cold War as ladder versus escalator: Mueller, 1989. 178. Military aversion to gratuitous killing: Hoban, 2007; Jack Hoban, personal communication, Nov. 14, 2009. 179. The Ethical Marine Warrior: Hoban, 2007, 2010. 180. “The Hunting Story”: Humphrey, 1992. 181.
So I didn’t attack.”173 Though American hawks were furious at Carter’s wimpiness, their own hero, Ronald Reagan, responded to a 1983 bombing that killed 241 American servicemen in Beirut by withdrawing all American forces from the country, and he sat tight in 1987 when Iraqi jet fighters killed thirty-seven sailors on the USS Stark. The 2004 train bombing in Madrid by an Islamist terrorist group, far from whipping the Spanish into an anti-Islamic lather, prompted them to vote out the government that had involved them in the Iraq War, an involvement many felt had brought the attack upon them. The most consequential discounting of honor in the history of the world was the resolution of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Though the pursuit of national prestige may have precipitated the crisis, once Khrushchev and Kennedy were in it, they reflected on their mutual need to save face and set that up as a problem for the two of them to solve.174 Kennedy had read Tuchman’s The Guns of August, a history of World War I, and knew that an international game of chicken driven by “personal complexes of inferiority and grandeur” could lead to a cataclysm.
At the same time a grassroots movement began to stigmatize the weapons. Demonstrations and petitions attracted millions of citizens, together with public figures such as Linus Pauling, Bertrand Russell, and Albert Schweitzer. The mounting pressure helped nudge the superpowers to a moratorium and then a ban on atmospheric nuclear testing, and then to a string of arms-control agreements. The Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 was a tipping point. Lyndon Johnson capitalized on the change to demonize Goldwater in the Daisy ad and called attention to the categorical boundary in a 1964 public statement: “Make no mistake. There is no such thing as a conventional nuclear weapon. For nineteen peril-filled years no nation has loosed the atom against another. To do so now is a political decision of the highest order.”205 As the world’s luck held out, and the two nuclear-free decades grew to three and four and five and six, the taboo fed on itself in the runaway process by which norms become common knowledge.
Pirates and Emperors, Old and New by Noam Chomsky
American ideology, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, drone strike, Fall of the Berlin Wall, land reform, liberation theology, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, union organizing, urban planning
Each case is a murderous and prolonged terrorist war conducted by Washington. President Kennedy launched a campaign to bring “the terrors of the earth” to Cuba, his close confidant historian Arthur Schlesinger writes in his biography of Robert Kennedy, who was assigned the task as his highest priority. The terrorist atrocities were extreme, and as is well known, played a part in what Schlesinger called “the most dangerous moment in history,” the Cuban missile crisis. The terrorist attacks were resumed when the crisis abated, and continued for many years. In Angola, the Reagan Administration—the last holdouts in backing apartheid South Africa—supported the vicious and brutal UNITA army, and continued to do so even its leader, Jonas Savimbi, had been roundly defeated in a carefully monitored free election and even after South Africa had withdrawn support from this “monster whose lust for power had brought appalling misery to his people,” in the words of Marrack Goulding, British ambassador to Angola, who was seconded by the CIA station chief in nearby Kinshasa, who warned that “it wasn’t a good idea” to support the monster “because of the extent of Savimbi’s crimes.
Anti-Cuban terrorism was directed by a secret Special Group established in November 1961 under the code name “Mongoose,” involving 400 Americans, 2,000 Cubans, a private navy of fast boats, and a $50 million annual budget, run in part by a Miami CIA station functioning in violation of the Neutrality Act and, presumably, the law banning CIA operations in the United States.18 These operations included bombing of hotels and industrial installations, sinking of fishing boats, poisoning of crops and livestock, contamination of sugar exports, etc. Not all of these actions were specifically authorized by the CIA, but no such considerations absolve official enemies. Several of these terrorist operations took place at the time of the Cuban missile crisis of October–November 1962. In the weeks before, Garthoff reports, a Cuban terrorist group operating from Florida with U.S. government authorization carried out “a daring speedboat strafing attack on a Cuban seaside hotel near Havana where Soviet military technicians were known to congregate, killing a score of Russians and Cubans”; and shortly after, attacked British and Cuban cargo ships and again raided Cuba among other actions that were stepped up in early October.
Torture in Latin America, LADOC (Latin American Documentation), Lima, 1987, the report of the First International Seminar on Torture in Latin America (Buenos Aires, December 1985), devoted to “the repressive system” that “has at its disposal knowledge and a multinational technology of terror, developed in specialized centers whose purpose is to perfect methods of exploitation, oppression and dependence of individuals and entire peoples” by the use of “state terrorism inspired by the Doctrine of National Security.” This doctrine can be traced to the historic decision of the Kennedy Administration to shift the mission of the Latin American military to “internal security,” with far-reaching consequences. 18. Raymond Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Brookings Institution, 1987), 17. 19. Ibid., 16f., 78f., 89f., 98. See the references of note 1. Also Bradley Earl Ayers, The War that Never Was (Bobbs-Merrill, 1976); Warren Hinckle and William Turner, The Fish is Red (Harper & Row, 1981); William Blum, The CIA (Zed, 1986); Morris Morley, Imperial State and Revolution (Cambridge, 1987); Taylor Branch and George Crile, “The Kennedy Vendetta: Our Secret War on Cuba,” Harper’s, August 1975. 20.
On the Future: Prospects for Humanity by Martin J. Rees
23andMe, 3D printing, air freight, Alfred Russel Wallace, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, Benoit Mandelbrot, blockchain, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, decarbonisation, demographic transition, distributed ledger, double helix, effective altruism, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, global village, Hyperloop, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Johannes Kepler, John Conway, life extension, mandelbrot fractal, mass immigration, megacity, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, quantitative hedge fund, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart grid, speech recognition, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanislav Petrov, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, supervolcano, technological singularity, the scientific method, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Walter Mischel, Yogi Berra
These now loom far larger, and they are becoming more probable, and potentially more catastrophic, with each decade that passes. We’ve had one lucky escape already. 1.2. NUCLEAR THREATS In the Cold War era—when armament levels escalated beyond all reason—the superpowers could have stumbled towards Armageddon through muddle and miscalculation. It was the era of ‘fallout shelters’. During the Cuban missile crisis, my fellow students and I participated in vigils and demonstrations—our mood lightened only by the ‘protest songs’, such as Tom Lehrer’s lyrics: ‘We’ll all go together when we go, all suffused with an incandescent glow’. But we would have been even more scared had we truly realised just how close we were to catastrophe. President Kennedy was later quoted as having said that the odds were ‘somewhere between one out of three and even’.
See also self-awareness consumerism, 36 Conway, John, 166–68, 170, 174 Copenhagen Consensus, 42 Copernican revolution, 184, 204, 205 cosmic exploration, 121, 123–24. See also spaceflight cosmic inflation theory, 187, 188 cosmology: as vital part of common culture, 214. See also big bang Coursera, 98 creationism, 195, 196 Crick, Francis, 204–5 CRISPR/Cas9, 66–67, 73–74 Crutzen, Paul, 31 cryonics, 81–82 Cuba, environmental plan of, 45 Cuban missile crisis, 17–18, 20 Curiosity rover, 127–28, 143 cyberattack, threat of, 20–21, 94–95 cybertech, benefits and vulnerabilities of, 5, 6–7, 63, 109–10 cyborg technologies, 7, 151 dark matter, 179 Dartnell, Lewis, 217 Darwin, Charles, 121–22, 175, 194, 195, 196, 214. See also evolution Dasgupta, Partha, 34 death: assisted dying, 70–71; organ transplants and, 71 Deep Blue, 86 DeepMind, 86–87, 106 demographic transition, 30 Dengue virus, 74 designer babies, 68–69 Deutsch, David, 192 developing countries: clean energy for, 48–49, 51; effective redeployment of existing resources for, 224; genetically modified (GM) crops and, 66; impact of information technology on, 83–84; megacities of, 22, 29, 77, 109; need for good governance in, 28–29; need to bypass high-consumption stage, 27, 36; population trends in, 30–31.
Origin Story: A Big History of Everything by David Christian
Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, butterfly effect, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cepheid variable, colonial rule, Colonization of Mars, Columbian Exchange, complexity theory, cosmic microwave background, cosmological constant, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, demographic transition, double helix, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Ernest Rutherford, European colonialism, Francisco Pizarro, Haber-Bosch Process, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Marshall McLuhan, microbiome, nuclear winter, planetary scale, rising living standards, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, trade route, Yogi Berra
I saw that course as a way of getting at the history of humanity. At the time, I taught and researched Russian and Soviet history. But I worried that teaching a national or imperial history (Russia was both nation and empire) conveyed the subliminal message that humans are divided, at the most fundamental level, into competing tribes. Was that a helpful message to teach in a world with nuclear weapons? As a schoolboy during the Cuban missile crisis, I vividly remember thinking we were on the verge of an apocalypse. Everything was about to be destroyed. And I remember wondering if there were kids “over there” in the Soviet Union who were equally scared. After all, they, too, were humans. As a child, I had lived in Nigeria. That gave me a strong sense of a single, extraordinarily diverse human community, a feeling that was confirmed when, as a teenager, I went to Atlantic College, an international school in South Wales.
From the bloodbath of the world wars, the United States and the Soviet Union emerged as the first global superpowers. There were many local wars, most aimed at overthrowing European colonial rule. But there were no more major international wars during the era of the Cold War. By now, all powers understood that there would be no victors in a nuclear war. But there were some close shaves. Soon after the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, President John Kennedy admitted that the odds of an all-out nuclear war had been “between one out of three and even.”1 The four decades after World War II witnessed the most remarkable spurt of economic growth in human history. This was the period of the Great Acceleration. Global exchanges were renewed and intensified. In the forty years before World War I, according to one influential estimate, international trade increased in value at an average rate of about 3.4 percent a year; from 1914 to 1950, that rate fell to just 0.9 percent; then, from 1950 to 1973, it rose at about 7.9 percent a year before falling slightly to about 5.1 percent between 1973 and 1998.2 In 1948, twenty nations signed the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT), which lowered barriers to international trade.
On the history of the Newcomen engine and its links to the scientific revolution, see Wootton, The Invention of Science, chapter 14. 17. Wrigley, Energy and the English Industrial Revolution, loc. 2112, Kindle. 18. Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (New York: Free Press, 1991), chapter 1. 19. Ibid., 16. Chapter 11. The Anthropocene: Threshold 8 1. Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd ed. (New York: Longman, 1999), 271. 2. Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development, 2001), 127. 3. Tim Lenton, Earth Systems Science: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016), 82. 4. Ha-Joon Chang, Economics: The User’s Guide (New York: Pelican, 2014), 429, based on figures from the World Bank. 5.
Can Democracy Work?: A Short History of a Radical Idea, From Ancient Athens to Our World by James Miller
Berlin Wall, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, Donald Trump, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, income inequality, Joseph Schumpeter, mass incarceration, means of production, Occupy movement, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Republic of Letters, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, transatlantic slave trade, union organizing, upwardly mobile, Vilfredo Pareto
Even more alarming, their existential struggle, however muted for public consumption, made sensitive observers worry about the fate of the earth. An arms race consumed the rival peoples’ resources. Both sides stockpiled a growing number of ever more sophisticated nuclear weapons. Both sides maneuvered for advantage, in part through proxy wars that engulfed distant lands in death and destruction, and in part through hair-raising episodes of “nuclear brinksmanship.” The most memorable example of the latter came during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when, as declassified documents show, Soviet and American leaders came dangerously close to irradiating a large portion of the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, a series of newly independent nations appeared, claiming their right to self-determination, starting with the partitioning of British India into the new nations of the Republic of India and the Dominion of Pakistan in 1947.
In the course of doing my job, I came to see from the inside—especially with the sympathetic mentorship of Daniel Bell, who was still intellectually active in the Academy in those days—how the country’s self-selected intellectual ruling class understood itself and its political obligations and prerogatives. “hierarchy, coercion, secrecy and deception”: Huntington, in Crozier, Huntington, and Watanuki, The Crisis of Democracy, 93. “nuclear brinksmanship”: Alexandr Fursenko and Timothy Naftali, One Hell of a Gamble: Khrushchev, Castro, and Kennedy, 1958–1964: The Secret History of the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: W. W. Norton, 1997). Cf. Jonathan Schell, The Fate of the Earth (New York: Knopf, 1982). A lifelong supporter of America’s Democratic Party: Robert D. Kaplan, “Looking the World in the Eye,” The Atlantic, December 2001. This sensitive profile of Huntington, along with the appreciation of Robert Putnam cited above, is my source for the biographical details that follow. It is worth noting that Niebuhr’s 1944 maxim: Reinhold Niebuhr, The Children of Light and the Children of Darkness: A Vindication of Democracy and a Critique of Its Traditional Defense (New York: Scribner, 1944), xxxvi.
Collective Thinking Cologne, Germany commerce: American culture and; American democracy and; Jackson’s advocacy of; Paine’s advocacy of Committee on Public Information Common Sense (Paine) Communist League Communist Manifesto, The (Marx and Engels) Communist Party of Great Britain communists, communism; democracy and; in Germany Condorcet, Marquis de; ad hominem attacks on; capture and death of; draft constitution of; enlightened public assumed by; as leader of 1792 constitution committee; mathematical and philosophical achievements of; sans-culottes insurrection defended by; warrant for arrest of; women’s rights championed by Condorcet Jury Theorem Congressional Government (Wilson) Congress of Vienna consent, as core principle of American democracy Constant, Benjamin Constitution, U.S.; Madison as chief architect of; viewed as democratic instrument; voting restrictions in Constitution of Athens, The (Aristotle, attributed) Continental Army Continental Congress Creek nation Crisis of Democracy, The Critias Croly, Herbert Crossley, Archibald Crystallizing Public Opinion Cuban missile crisis (1962) culture, American, see American culture Czechoslovakia; Velvet Revolution in Dahl, Robert Danton, Georges David, Jacques-Louis Davidson, Carl Debs, Eugene V. Declaration of Independence; as moral challenge Declaration of the Rights of Man and Citizen, French Delphi demagogues democracy: in American republic, see American democracy; in ancient Greece, see Athenian democracy; anxieties about; capitalism and; Cole’s conception of; communism and; conflicting views of; Dahl’s definition of; dangers of; demagogues and; Dewey’s conception of; dictatorial; direct, see direct democracy; Economist index of; eighteenth-century rebirth of; as enduring ideal; as European invention; forced export of; Freedom House index of; future of; as “government by popular opinion” (Wilson); Havel on; Huntington’s view of; inherent instability of; internationalism and; labor unions and; Lenin’s conception of; liberalism and; liberalism vs.; limits on; Lincoln on; Lippmann’s conception of; Marx’s ambivalence about; Mazzini’s view of; Michels’s faith in; misleading accounts of; modern conception of; as most often honored in the breach; nationalist movements and; in nineteenth-century Europe, see Europe, struggle for equality in; as pandering to desire; participatory (see also direct democracy); psychological limits on; public opinion and; representative, see representative democracy; revolt as recurrent feature of; Rice’s view of; Rousseau on; Schumpeter’s view of; slavery and; social, see social democracy; totalitarian; V-Dem Institute report on; Wallas on; Weber on; Whitman on; Wilson’s conception of; World War II and democracy, as ideal: in popular opinion; as shared belief system democracy, in twentieth century; American vs.
Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World by Adam Grant
Albert Einstein, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, availability heuristic, barriers to entry, business process, business process outsourcing, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dean Kamen, double helix, Elon Musk, fear of failure, Firefox, George Santayana, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, job-hopping, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum viable product, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, risk tolerance, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Wisdom of Crowds, women in the workforce
Richard Neustadt, a political scientist and presidential adviser, explained that Kennedy held “a series of ad hoc meetings with a small but shifting set of top advisers.” Subsequent studies have also demonstrated that cohesion takes time to develop: A group without stable membership has no opportunity to form a sense of closeness and camaraderie. University of Toronto researcher Glen Whyte points out that in the year after the Bay of Pigs, Kennedy led a cohesive group of mostly the same advisers to an effective resolution of the Cuban missile crisis. We now know that the consensus to launch the Cuban invasion “was not the result of a desire to maintain the group’s cohesiveness or esprit de corps,” explains Stanford psychologist Roderick Kramer. Cohesion doesn’t cause groupthink anywhere else, either. There was another fatal flaw in Janis’s analysis: He studied mostly cohesive groups making bad choices. How do we know that it was actually cohesion—and not the fact that they all ate cereal for breakfast or wore shoes with laces—that drove dysfunctional decisions?
Too often, it is a “catchall used to justify hiring people who are similar to decision makers and rejecting people who are not.” At IDEO, the design consulting firm that created the mouse for Apple, managers throw cultural fit out the window, focusing instead on how potential candidates can improve the culture. * In light of this evidence that authentic dissent works best, I asked Nemeth what she thought of Robert Kennedy’s assigned devil’s advocate role in the Cuban missile crisis. “I think Bobby Kennedy’s role there was to ensure a process of questioning each possibility,” she replied. “What he did was at least make them go through the motions of reconsidering positions—at least defending them. I still don’t think this has the same effect as authentic dissent but it was certainly an improvement over a rush to judgment.” It seems that Robert Kennedy was less of a pure devil’s advocate, and more of what Harvard political scientist Roger Porter calls an honest broker: someone who guided the group through an effective decision process that brought different arguments to the table and evaluated their quality
When everything you say is being recorded, you might as well be open about it—and if you’re not, they’ll find out anyway. As a Bridgewater employee, if you talk behind someone’s back, they’ll call you a slimy weasel to your face. If you do it more than once, you might be sent packing. * The futility of democratic voting as a decision-making process has been clear since the Bay of Pigs debacle, when President Kennedy’s straw poll silenced the opposition. Having learned from that experience, in the Cuban missile crisis, Kennedy sought to bring more dissenting opinions to the table. To prevent the committee from favoring for political reasons the option that pleased him, he started by limiting his own role in the decision-making process, which forced the group to make a more balanced assessment of a broader range of possibilities. As psychologists Andreas Mojzisch and Stefan Schulz-Hardt find, “knowing others’ preferences degrades the quality of group decisions.”
Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You by Scott E. Page
"Robert Solow", Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, algorithmic trading, Alvin Roth, assortative mating, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Checklist Manifesto, computer age, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, deliberate practice, discrete time, distributed ledger, en.wikipedia.org, Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science, Everything should be made as simple as possible, experimental economics, first-price auction, Flash crash, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, High speed trading, impulse control, income inequality, Isaac Newton, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, meta analysis, meta-analysis, money market fund, Nash equilibrium, natural language processing, Network effects, p-value, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, Paul Erdős, Paul Samuelson, phenotype, pre–internet, prisoner's dilemma, race to the bottom, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, school choice, sealed-bid auction, second-price auction, selection bias, six sigma, social graph, spectrum auction, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Supply of New York City Cabdrivers, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Great Moderation, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the rule of 72, the scientific method, The Spirit Level, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, urban sprawl, value at risk, web application, winner-take-all economy, zero-sum game
Ball had the right information (Iceland is small), chose the right model (supply and demand), and made a wise choice. We next show how to create a dialogue among multiple models by reconsidering two historical events: the 2008 global financial market collapse, which reduced total wealth (or what had been thought to be wealth) by trillions of dollars, resulting in a four-year global recession, and the 1961 Cuban missile crisis, which nearly resulted in nuclear war. The 2008 financial collapse has multiple explanations: too much foreign investment, over-leveraged investment banks, lack of oversight in the mortgage approval process, blissful optimism among home-flipping consumers, the complexity of financial instruments, a misunderstanding of risk, and greedy bankers who knew the bubble existed and expected a bailout.
As Lo summarizes: “We should strive at the outset to entertain as many interpretations of the same set of objective facts as we can, and hope that a more nuanced and internally consistent understanding of the crisis emerges in the fullness of time.” He goes on to say, “Only by collecting a diverse and often mutually contradictory set of narratives can we eventually develop a more complete understanding of the crisis.” No single model suffices.11 In Essence of Decision, Graham Allison undertakes a many-model approach to explain the Cuban missile crisis. On April 17, 1961, a CIA-trained paramilitary group landed on the shores of Cuba in a failed attempt to overthrow Fidel Castro’s communist regime, increasing tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union, Cuba’s ally. In response, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev moved short-range nuclear missiles to Cuba. President John F. Kennedy responded by blockading Cuba. The Soviet Union backed down, and the crisis ended.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Albert, Rika, Istvan Albert, and Gary L. Nakarado. 2004. “Structural Vulnerability of the North American Power Grid.” Physical Review E 69: 025103. Allesina, Stefano, and Mercedes Pascual. 2009. “Googling Food Webs: Can an Eigenvector Measure Species’ Importance for Coextinctions?” PLOS: Computational Biology 9, no. 4. Allison, Graham. 1971. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Little, Brown. Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, and Emmanuel Saez. 2013. “The World Top Incomes Database.” https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/projects/view/149. Anderson, Chris. 2008a. “The End of Theory: The Data Deluge Makes the Scientific Method Obsolete.” Wired 16, no. 7. Anderson, Chris. 2008b. The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power, and the Neoconservative Legacy by Francis Fukuyama
affirmative action, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, European colonialism, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Internet Archive, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, transaction costs, uranium enrichment, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus
John Lewis Gaddis has shown that preemption (often unilateral preemption) has been used by American administrations since the early nineteenth century; it was seriously considered at several points during the Cold War. 12 The Eisenhower administration debated a preemptive "rollback" strategy in the early 1950s, and the Kennedy administration considered preempting the Soviet medium-range missiles deployed to Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis. What was revolutionary about the NSS was its expansion of traditional notions of preemption to include what amounted to preventive war. Preemption is usually understood to be an effort to break up an imminent military attack; preventive war is a military operation designed to head off a threat that is months or years away from materializing. The Bush administration argued that in an age of nuclear-armed terrorists, the very distinction between preemption and prevention was outmoded; the restrictive definition of the former needed to be broadened. 13 The United States would periodically find it necessary to reach inside states and create political conditions that would prevent terrorism.
See also nuclear deterrence; Soviet Union Commentary, 17 communism: collapse of, 52-53, 59, 60; differing views of, 50-51; opposition to, 15-17, 50-51 Community of Democracies, 176-77, 187 competition: and political development, 129 conditionality: and structural adjustment loans, 145-47 conservatism, traditional: as compared with neoconservatism, 38-39 2l8 counterinsurgency, 76, 184 crime: and social policy, 19-20 Cuban Missile Crisis, 83 cultural relativism, 22, 23-24 Czechoslovakia, 29 Darfur, 173 Dayton Accords, 98 Dean, Howard, 12 Declaration of Independence, 23 decolonization, 118 democracy, Western: assumptions about, 30-31, 116; as by-product of modernization, 54, 57; and economic development, 128; expansion of, 55-58, in; in Germany, 132; in Japan, 132; and liberal authoritarianism, 140-41; and political development, 125; promotion of, 46-47, 114, 115, 117, 131-38, 140, 150-51, 177, 178, 206m; role of institutions in, 116-18; as solution to terrorism, 74; sources of weakness of, 24 Democratic Party, 61 democratic transitions, 117, 127-30, 176; role of United States in, 131-32, 133,134-38 deterrence.
The Retreat of Western Liberalism by Edward Luce
"Robert Solow", 3D printing, affirmative action, Airbnb, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, business cycle, call centre, carried interest, centre right, Charles Lindbergh, cognitive dissonance, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, computer age, corporate raider, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, George Santayana, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, global supply chain, illegal immigration, imperial preference, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, knowledge economy, lateral thinking, liberal capitalism, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, moral panic, more computing power than Apollo, mutually assured destruction, new economy, New Urbanism, Norman Mailer, offshore financial centre, one-China policy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, precariat, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, reshoring, Richard Florida, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, software is eating the world, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, superstar cities, telepresence, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, unpaid internship, Washington Consensus, We are the 99%, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, white flight, World Values Survey, Yogi Berra
The first is changing the nature of relations between nations. The second is an upheaval in the internal character of states. Each feeds off and reinforces the other. The biggest duty of any state is to protect the nation from enemies. In the pre-nuclear age, this was accomplished with large-scale armies. During the nuclear era, it moved increasingly to weapons of mass destruction. Although the Cold War involved near-misses, most notably during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, the Americans and the Soviets gradually came to understand each other’s signals. Eventually each was able to read the other’s nuclear grammar fluently. After 1962 the two sides set up a nuclear hotline and even agreed to exchanges of personnel so that they could minimise the risk they would stumble into war. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction worked because it was based on an understanding between two highly organised actors.
., 31, 73, 79–81, 103, 156, 157, 163, 165, 182 Bush Republicans, 189 Cameron, David, 15, 92, 98, 99–100 Carnegie, Andrew, 42–3 Cherokee Indians, 114, 134 Chicago, 48 China: as autocracy, 78, 80, 83–6, 159–60, 165, 201; circular view of history, 11; colonial exploitation of, 20, 22–3, 55; decoupling of economy from West (2008), 29–30, 83–4; democracy activists in, 86, 140; entry to WTO (2001), 26; exceptionalism, 166; expulsion of Western NGOs, 85; future importance of, 200–1; and global trading system, 19–20, 26–7; Great Firewall in, 129; handover of Hong Kong (1997), 163–4; history in popular imagination, 163–4; hostility to Western liberalism, 84–6, 159–60, 162; and hydrogen bomb, 163; and Industrial Revolution, 22, 23–4; internal migration in, 41; investment in developing countries, 32, 84; military expansion, 157, 158; as nuclear power, 175; Obama’s trip to (2009), 159–60; political future of, 168–9, 202; pragmatic development route, 28, 29–30; pre-Industrial Revolution economy, 22; rapid expansion of, 13, 20–2, 25–8, 30, 35, 58, 157, 159; and robot economy, 62; Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 80; Trump’s promised trade war, 135, 145, 149; and Trump’s victory, 85–6, 140; US naval patrols in seas off, 148, 158, 165; US policy towards, 25–6, 145–6, 157–61, 165; US–China war scenario, 145–53, 161; in Western thought, 161–2; Xi’s crackdown on internal dissent, 168; Zheng He’s naval fleet, 165–6 China Central Television (CCTV), 84, 85 Christianity, 10, 105 Churchill, Winston, 98, 117, 128, 169 cities, 47–51, 130 class: creeping gentrification, 46, 48, 50–1; emerging middle classes, 21, 31, 39, 159; in Didier Eribon’s France, 104–10; Golden Age for Western middle class, 33–4, 43; Hillaryland in USA, 87–8; ‘meritocracy’, 43, 44–6; mobility as vanishing in West, 43–6; move rightwards of blue-collar whites, 95–9, 102, 108–10, 189–91, 194–5; poor whites in USA, 95–6, 112–13; populism in late nineteenth century, 110–11; and post-war centre-left politics, 89–92, 99; ‘precariat’ (‘left-behinds’), 12, 13, 43–8, 50, 91, 98–9, 110, 111, 131; and Trump’s agenda, 111, 151, 169, 190; urban liberal elites, 47, 49–51, 71, 87–9, 91–5, 110, 204; West’s middle-income problem, 13, 31–2, 34–41 Clausewitz, Carl von, 161 Clinton, Bill, 26, 71, 73, 90, 97–8, 157–9 Clinton, Hillary, 15, 16, 47, 67, 79, 160, 188; 2016 election campaign, 87–8, 91–4, 95–6, 119, 133; reasons for defeat of, 94–5, 96–8 Cold War: end of, 3–5, 6, 7, 74, 77, 78, 117, 121; nuclear near misses, 174; in US popular imagination, 163; and Western democracy, 115–16, 117, 183 Colombia, 72 colonialism, European, 11, 13, 20, 22–3; anti-colonial movements, 9–10; and Industrial Revolution, 13, 23–5, 55–6 Comey, James, 133 communism, 3–4, 5, 6, 105–8, 115 Confucius Institutes, 84 Congress, US, 133–4 Copenhagen summit (2009), 160 Coughlin, Father, 113 Cowen, Tyler, 40, 50, 57 Crick, Bernard, 138 crime, 47 Crimea, annexation of (2014), 8, 173 Cuba, 165 Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), 165, 174 cyber warfare, 176–8 Cyborg, 54 D’Alema, Massimo, 90 Daley, Richard, 189 Danish People’s Party, 102 Davos Forum, 19–20, 27, 68–71, 72–3, 91, 121 de Blasio, Bill, 49 de Gaulle, Charles, 106, 116 de Tocqueville, Alexis, 38, 112, 126–7 democracy, liberal: as an adaptive organism, 87; and America’s Founding Fathers, 9, 112–13, 123, 126, 138; and Arab Spring, 82; Chinese view of US system, 85–6; communism replaces as bête noire, 115; concept of ‘the people’, 87, 116, 119–20; damaged by responses to 9/11 attacks, 79–81, 86, 140, 165; and Davos elite, 68–71; de Tocqueville on, 126–7; declining faith in, 8–9, 12, 14, 88–9, 98–100, 103–4, 119–23, 202–3; demophobia, 111, 114, 119–23; economic growth as strongest glue, 13, 37, 103, 201–2; efforts to suppress franchise, 104, 123; elite disenchantment with, 121; elite fear of public opinion, 69, 111, 118; failing democracies (since 2000), 12, 82–3, 138–9; and ‘folk theory of democracy’, 119, 120; Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’, 5, 14, 181; and global trilemma, 72–3; and Great Recession, 83–4; and Hong Kong, 164; idealism of Rousseau and Kant, 126; illiberal democracy concept, 119, 120, 136–7, 138–9, 204; in India, 201; individual rights and liberty, 14, 97, 120; late twentieth century democratic wave, 77–8, 83; and mass distraction, 127, 128–30; need for regaining of optimism, 202–3; need to abandon deep globalisation, 73–4; nineteenth-century fear of, 114–15; and plural society, 139; popular will concept, 87, 118, 119–20, 126, 137–8; post-Cold War triumphalism, 5, 6, 71; post-war golden era, 33–4, 43, 89, 116, 117; post-WW2 European constitutions, 116; and ‘precariat’ (‘left-behinds’), 12, 13, 43–8, 50, 91, 98–9, 110, 111, 131; the rich as losing faith in, 122–3; Russia’s hostility to, 6–8, 79, 85; space for as shrinking, 72–3; technocratic mindset of elites, 88–9, 92–5, 111; Trump as mortal threat to, 97, 104, 111, 126, 133–6, 138, 139, 161, 169–70, 178–84, 203–4; and US-led invasion of Iraq (2003), 8, 81, 85; Western toolkit for, 77–9; see also politics in West Diamond, Larry, 83 digital revolution, 51–5, 59–66, 67–8, 174; cyber-utopians, 52, 60, 65; debate over future impact, 56; and education, 197, 198; exponential rate of change, 170, 172, 197; internet, 34, 35, 127, 128, 129–30, 131, 163; internet boom (1990s), 34, 59; and low productivity growth, 34, 59, 60; as one-sided exchange, 66–7; and risk-averse/conformist mindset, 40 diplomacy and global politics: annexation of Crimea (2014), 8, 173; China’s increased prestige, 19–20, 26–8, 29–30, 35, 83–5, 159; declining US/Western hegemony, 14, 21–2, 26–8, 140–1, 200–1; existential challenges in years ahead, 174–84; multipolarity concept, 6–8, 70; and nation’s popular imagination, 162–3; parallels with 1914 period, 155–61; and US ‘war on terror’, 80–1, 140, 183; US–China relations, 25–6, 145–6, 157–61, 165; US–China war scenario, 145–53, 161; US–Russia relations under Obama, 79 Doha Round, 73 drugs and narcotics, 37–8 Drutman, Lee, 68 Dubai, 48 Durkheim, Émile, 37 Duterte, Rodrigo, 136–7, 138 economists, 27 economy, global see global economy; globalisation, economic; growth, economic Edison, Thomas, 59 education, 42, 44–5, 53, 55, 197, 198 Egypt, 82, 175 electricity, 58, 59 Elephant Chart, 31–3 Enlightenment, 24, 104 entrepreneurialism, decline of in West, 39–40 Erdoğan, Recep Tayyip, 137 Eribon, Didier, 104–10, 111 Ethiopia, 82 Europe: ‘complacent classes’ in, 40; decline of established parties, 89; geopolitical loss, 141; growth of inequality in modern era, 43; identity politics in, 139–40; migration crisis, 70, 100, 140, 180–1; nationalism in, 10–11, 102, 108–9; nineteenth-century diplomacy, 7–8, 155–6, 171–2; post-war constitutions in, 116; Putin’s interference in, 179, 180; as turning inwards, 14 European Commission, 118, 120 European Union, 72, 117–19, 139–40, 179–80, 181, 201; see also Brexit Facebook, 39, 54, 67, 178 fake news, 130, 148, 178–9 Farage, Nigel, 98–9, 100, 184 fascism, 5, 77, 97, 100, 117 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 131–2, 133 Felt, Mark, 131–2, 134 financial crisis, global (2008), 27, 29, 30, 91; Atlantic recession following, 30, 63–4, 83–4 financial services, 54 Financial Times, 136, 200 Finland, 139 First World War, 115, 154–5 Flake, Jeff, 134 Florida, Richard, 47, 49, 50, 51 Flynn, Michael, 148, 149 Foa, Roberto Stefan, 123 Ford, Henry, 66–7 Foucault, Michel, 107 France, 15, 37, 63, 102, 104–10, 116; 1968 Paris demonstrations, 188; French Revolution, 3 Franco, General Francisco, 77 Franco-German War (1870–1), 155–6 Frank, Robert H., 30, 35–6, 44 Franklin, Benjamin, 204 Freelancer.com, 63 Friedman, Ben, The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, 38 Friedman, Thomas, 74 Frontex (border agency), 181 FSB, 6 Fukuyama, Francis, 12, 83, 101, 139, 193–4; ‘The End of History?’
Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure by Tim Harford
Andrew Wiles, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, car-free, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, charter city, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, complexity theory, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dava Sobel, Deep Water Horizon, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, double entry bookkeeping, Edmond Halley, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Fermat's Last Theorem, Firefox, food miles, Gerolamo Cardano, global supply chain, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, John Harrison: Longitude, knowledge worker, loose coupling, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Netflix Prize, New Urbanism, Nick Leeson, PageRank, Piper Alpha, profit motive, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, rolodex, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, the market place, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, trade route, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, web application, X Prize, zero-sum game
But while this is how we instinctively think about how leadership works and how organisations should operate, it’s a dangerously misleading view. The problem is that no leader can make the right decision every time. Napoleon, perhaps the finest general in history, invaded Russia with half a million men and lost over 90 per cent of them to death and desertion. John F. Kennedy forced Khrushchev to back down during the Cuban missile crisis. Yet he will also be remembered for the of Pigs fiasco, when he somehow persuaded himself both that 1400 US-trained Cuban exiles might defeat 200,000 troops and topple Fidel Castro, and that nobody would suspect that the US was involved. Mao Zedong was the greatest of all insurgent commanders, but a catastrophic peacetime leader whose blundering arrogance killed tens of millions of his own people.
Irving Janis’s classic analysis of the Bay of Pigs and other foreign policy fiascos, Victims of Group Think, explains that a strong team – a ‘kind of family’ – can quickly fall into the habit of reinforcing each other’s prejudices out of simple team spirit and a desire to bolster the group. Janis details the way in which John F. Kennedy fooled himself into thinking that he was gathering a range of views and critical comments. All the while his team of advisers were unconsciously giving each other a false sense of infallibility. Later, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy was far more aggressive about demanding alternative options, exhaustively exploring risks, and breaking up his advisory groups to ensure that they didn’t become too comfortable. It was a lesson that David Petraeus – another historian – had grasped. Once Petraeus had a robust, usable doctrine, properly tested by a range of contrasting views, he launched his own guerrilla campaign to get the US Army to pay attention to it.
., 55, 59, 71 catastrophe experts, 184–6, 191, 194–5, 208 Cave-Brown-Cave, Air Commodore Henry, 81, 83, 85, 88, 114 centralised decision making, 70, 74–5, 226, 227, 228; warfare and, 46–7, 67–8, 69, 71, 76, 78–9 centrally planned economies, 11, 21, 23–6, 68–9, 70 Challenger shuttle disaster, 184 Charles, Prince, 154 Chernobyl disaster, 185 Chile, 3, 69–72, 76, 148 China, 11, 94, 131, 143, 147, 150, 152 Christensen, Clayton, 239–40, 242, 245 Chuquicamata mine (Chile), 3 Churchill, Winston, 41–2, 82, 85 Citigroup, 205131 Clay Mathematics Institute, 110 climate change, 4, 20; carbon dioxide emissions and, 132, 156, 159–65, 166–9, 173, 176, 178–80; ‘carbon footprinting’, 159–66; carbon tax/price idea, 167–9, 178–80, 222; environmental regulations and, 169–74, 176, 177; ‘food miles’ and, 159, 160–1, 168; governments/politics and, 157–8, 163, 169–74, 176, 180; greenhouse effect and, 154–6; individual behaviour and, 158–63, 164, 165–6; innovation prizes and, 109, 179; methane and, 155, 156, 157, 159–60, 173, 179, 180; new technologies and, 94–5; simplicity/complexity paradox, 156, 157–8; Thaler-Sunstein nudge, 177–8; uncertainty and, 156 Coca-Cola, 28, 243 Cochrane, Archie, 123–7, 129, 130, 140, 238, 256 cognitive dissonance, 251–2 Cold War, 6, 41, 62–3 Colombia, 117, 147 complexity theory, 3–4, 13, 16, 49, 72103, 237 computer games, 92–3 computer industry, 11–12, 69, 70–1, 239–42 corporations and companies: disruptive technologies and, 239–44, 245–6; environmental issues and, 157–8, 159, 161, 165, 170–1, 172–3; flattening of hierarchies, 75, 224–5, 226–31; fraud and, 208, 210, 212–13, 214; innovation and, 17, 81–2, 87–9, 90, 93–4, 95–7, 108–11, 112, 114, 224–30, 232–4; limited liability, 244; patents and, 95–7, 110, 111, 114; randomised experiments and, 235–9; skunk works model and, 89, 91, 93, 152, 224, 242–3, 245; strategy and, 16, 18, 27–8, 36, 223, 224–34; see also business world; economics and finance cot-death, 120–1 credit-rating agencies, 188, 189, 190 Criner, Roy, 252 Crosby, Sir James, 211, 214, 250, 256 Cuban Missile Crisis, 41, 63 Cudahy Packing, 9 dairy products, 158, 159–60, 164–5, 166 Darwin, Charles, 86 Dayton Hudson, 243 de Montyon, Baron, 107–8 Deal or No Deal (TV game show), 33–5, 253 decentralisation, 73, 74–8, 222, 224–5, 226–31; Iraq war and, 76–8, 79; trial and error and, 31, 174–5, 232, 234 decision making: big picture thinking, 41, 42, 46, 55; consistent standards and, 28–9; diversity of opinions, 31, 44–5, 46, 48–50, 59–63; doctrine of unanimous advice, 30–1, 47–50, 62–3, 64, 78; grandiosity and, 27–8; idealized hierarchy, 40–1, 42, 46–7, 49–50, 55, 78; learning from mistakes, 31–5, 78, 119, 250–1, 256–9, 261–2; local/on the ground, 73, 74, 75, 76–8, 79, 224–5, 226–31; reporting lines/chain of command, 41, 42, 46, 49–50, 55–6, 58, 59–60, 64, 77–8; supportive team with shared vision, 41, 42, 46, 56, 62–3; unsuccessful, 19, 32, 34–5, 41–2; see also centralised decision making Deepwater Horizon disaster (April 2010), 36, 216–19, 220 Democratic Republic of Congo, 139–40 Deng Xiaoping, 1 Denmark, 148 Department for International Development (DFID), 133, 137–8 development aid: charter cities movement, 150–3; community-driven reconstruction (CDR), 137–40; corruption and, 133–5, 142–3; economic ‘big push’ and, 143–5, 148–9; feedback loops, 141–3; fundamentally unidentified questions (FUQs), 132, 133; governments and, 118, 120, 143, 144, 148–9; identification strategies, 132–5; microfinance, 116, 117–18, 120; Millennium Development Villages, 129–30, 131; product space concept, 145–8; randomised trials and, 127–9, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135–6, 137–40, 141; randomistas, 127–9, 132, 133, 135–40, 258; selection principle and, 117, 140–3, 149; SouthWest project in China, 131; success and failure, 116, 118–20, 130–1; Muhammad Yunus and, 116, 117–18 digital photography, 240–1, 242 Dirks, Ray, 211–12, 213 disk-drive industry, 239–40, 242 Djankov, Simeon, 135 domino-toppling displays, 185, 200–1 Don Basin (Russia), 21–2, 24, 27 dot-com bubble, 10, 92 Dubai, 147, 150 Duflo, Esther, 127, 131, 135, 136 Dyck, Alexander, 210, 213 eBay, 95, 230 econometrics, 132–5 economics and finance: banking system as complex and tightly coupled, 185, 186, 187–90, 200, 201, 207–8, 220; bankruptcy contingency plans, 204; Basel III regulations, 195; bond insurance business, 189–90; bridge bank/rump bank approach, 205–6; capital requirements, 203, 204; centrally planned economiepos=0000032004 >11, 21, 23–6, 68–9, 70; CoCos (contingent convertible bonds), 203–4; complexity and, 3–4; decoupling of financial system, 202, 203–8, 215–16, 220; Dodd-Frank reform act (2010), 195; employees as error/fraud spotters, 210, 211, 212, 213, 215; energy crisis (1970s), 179; evolutionary theory and, 14–17, 18–19, 174–5; improvements since 1960s, 215; inter-bank payments systems, 207; latent errors and, 209–10, 215; ‘LMX spiral’, 183–4, 189; narrow banking approach, 206–7, 215; need for systemic heat maps, 195–6; reinsurance markets, 183; zombie banks, 201–2; see also business world; corporations and companies; financial crisis (from 2007) Edison, Thomas, 236, 238 Eliot, T.S., 260 Elizabeth House (Waterloo), 170–1, 172 Endler, John, 221–2, 223, 234, 239 Engineers Without Borders, 119 Enron, 197–8, 200, 208, 210 environmental issues: biofuels, 84, 173, 176; clean energy, 91, 94, 96, 245–6; corporations/companies and, 159, 161, 165, 170–1, 172–3; renewable energy technology, 84, 91, 96, 130, 168, 169–73, 179, 245; see also climate change Equity Funding Corporation, 212 Ernst and Young, 199 errors and mistakes, types of, 208–10; latent errors, 209–10, 215, 218, 220 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), 188 European Union, 169, 173 Evans, Martin, 100 evolutionary theory, 6, 12–13, 15–17, 174, 258; business world and, 14–17, 174–5, 233–4; Darwin and, 86; digital world and, 13–14, 259–60; economics and, 14–17, 174–5; Endler’s guppy experiments, 221–2, 223, 239; fitness landscapes, 14–15, 259; Leslie Orgel’s law, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 180; problem solving and, 14–15, 16; selective breeding and, 175–6 expertise, limits of, 6–8, 16, 17, 19, 66 extinction events, biological, 18–19 Exxon (formerly Jersey Standard), 9, 12, 188, 245 F-22 stealth fighter, 93 Facebook, 90, 91 failure: in business, 8–10, 11–12, 18–19, 36, 148–9, 224, 239–46; chasing of losses, 32–5, 253–4, 256; in complex and tightly coupled systems, 185–90, 191–2, 200, 201, 207–8, 219, 220; corporate extinctions, 18–19; denial and, 32, 34–5, 250–3, 255–6; disruptive technologies, 239–44, 245–6; of established industries, 8–10; government funding and, 148–9; hedonic editing and, 254; honest advice from others and, 256–7, 258, 259; learning from, 31–5, 78, 119, 250–1, 256–9, 261–2; modern computer industry and, 11–12, 239–42; as natural in market system, 10, 11, 12, 244, 245–6; niche markets and, 240–2; normal accident theory, 219; recognition of, 36, 224; reinterpreted as success, 254–5, 256; shifts in competitive landscape, 239–46; ‘Swiss cheese model’ of safety systems, 186–7, 190, 209, 218; types of error and mistake, 208–10; willingness to fail, 249–50, 261–2; of young industries, 10 Fearon, James, 137, Federal Aviation Administration, 210 Federal Reserve Bank, 193–4 feedback, 25, 26, 42, 178, 240; in bureaucratic hierarchies, 30–1; development and, 141–3; dictatorships’ immunity to, 27; Iraq war and, 43–5, 46, 57–8, 59–62; market system and, 141; praise sandwich, 254; public services and, 141; self-employment and, 258; yes-men and, 30 Feith, Douglas, 44, 45 Ferguson, Chris ‘Jesus’, 32 Fermi nuclear reactor (near Detroit), 187 Festinger, Leon, 251 financial crisis (from 2007), 5, 11, 25; AIG and, 189, 193–5, 215–16, 228; bankers’ bonuses, 198; banking system as complex and tightly coupled, 185, 186, 187–90, 200, 201, 207–8, 220; bond insurance business and, 189–90; collateralised debt obligations (CDOs), 190, 209; credit default swaps (CDSs), 187–9, 190, 194; derivatives deals and, 198, 220; faulty information systems and, 193–5; fees paid to administrators, 197; government bail-outs/guarantees, 202, 214, 223; Lehman Brothers and, 193, 194, 196–200, 204–5, 208, 215–16; ‘LMX spiral’ comparisons, 183–4, 189; Repo 105 accounting trick, 199 Financial Services Authority (FSA), 214 Firefox, 221, 230 Fleming, Alexander, 83 Food Preservation prize, 107, 108 Ford Motor Company, 46–7 fossil record, 18 Fourier, Joseph, 155 fraud, corporate, 208, 210, 212–13, 214 Friedel, Robert, 80 Frost, Robert, 260 A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum (musical), 248 Gage, Phineas, 21, 27 Galapagos Islands, 86, 87 Gale (US developer), 152 Galenson, David, 260 Galileo, 187 Galland, Adolf, 81 Gallipoli campaign (1915), 41–2 Galvin, Major General Jack, 62, 256 game theory, 138, 205 Gates, Bill, 110, 115 Gates, Robert, 59, 64, 78 Gates Foundation, 110 Geithner, Tim, 193–5, 196 GenArts, 13 General Electric, 9, 12, 95 Gilbert, Daniel, 255, 256 GlaxoSmithKline, 95 Glewwe, Paul, 127–8 Global Positioning System (GPS), 113 globalisation, 75 Google, 12, 15, 90, 91, 239, 245, 261; corporate strategy, 36, 231–4; Gmail, 233, 234, 241, 242; peer monitoring at, 229–30 Gore, Al, An Inconvenient Truth, 158 Göring, Hermann, 81 government and politics: climate change and, 157–8, 163, 169–74, 176, 180; development aid and, 118, 120, 143, 144, 148–9; financial crisis (from 2007) and, 193–5, 198–9, 202, 214, 215–16, 223; grandiosity and, 27–8; ideal hierarchies and, 46pos=00002pos=0000022558 >7, 49–50, 62–3, 78; innovation funding, 82, 88, 93, 97, 99–101, 102–3, 104, 113; lack of adaptability rewarded, 20; pilot schemes and, 29, 30; rigorous evaluation methods and, 29* Graham, Loren, 26 Grameen Bank, 116, 117 Greece, 147 Green, Donald, 29* greenhouse effect, 154–6 Gulf War, first, 44, 53, 65, 66, 67, 71; Battle of 73 Easting, 72–3, 74, 79 Gutenberg, Johannes, 10 Haldane, Andrew, 195, 258 Halifax (HBOS subsidiary), 211 Halley, Edmund, 105 Halliburton, 217 Hamel, Gary, 221, 226, 233, 234 Hanna, Rema, 135 Hannah, Leslie, 8–10, 18 Hanseatic League, 150 Harrison, John, 106–7, 108, 110, 111 Harvard University, 98–9, 185 Hastings, Reed, 108 Hausmann, Ricardo, 145 Hayek, Friedrich von, 1, 72, 74–5, 227 HBOS, 211, 213, 214 healthcare sector, US, 213–14 Heckler, Margaret, 90–1 Henry the Lion, 149, 150, 151–2, 153 Hewitt, Adrian, 169 Hidalgo, César, 144–7, 148 Higginson, Peter, 230 Hinkley Point B power station, 192–3, 230–1 Hitachi, 11 Hitler, Adolf, 41, 82, 83, 150 HIV-AIDS, 90–1, 96, 111, 113 Holland, John, 16, 103 Hong Kong, 150 Houston, Dame Fanny, 88–9, 114 Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI), 101–3, 112 Hughes (computer company), 11 Humphreys, Macartan, 136, 137, 138–40 Hurricane aircraft, 82* IBM, 11, 90, 95–6 In Search of Excellence (Peters and Waterman, 1982), 8, 10 India, 135, 136, 143, 147, 169 individuals: adaptation and, 223–4, 248–62; climate change and, 158–63, 164, 165–6; experimentation and, 260–2; trial and error and, 31–5 Indonesia, 133–4, 142, 143 Innocentive, 109 innovation: corporations and, 17, 81–2, 87–9, 90, 93–4, 95–7, 108–11, 112, 114, 224–30, 232–4; costs/funding of, 90–4, 99–105; failure as price worth paying, 101–3, 104, 184, 215, 236; government funding, 82, 88, 93, 97, 99–101, 102–3, 104, 113; grants and, 108; in health field, 90–1, 96; large teams and specialisation, 91–4; market system and, 17, 95–7, 104; new technologies and, 89–90, 91, 94–5; parallel possibilities and, 86–9, 104; prize methodology, 106–11, 112, 113–14, 179, 222–3; randomistas and, 127–9, 132, 133, 135–40, 258; return on investment and, 83–4; skunk works model, 89, 91, 93, 152, 224, 242–3, 245; slowing down of, 90–5, 97; small steps and, 16, 24, 29, 36, 99, 103, 143, 149, 153, 224, 259–60; space tourism, 112–13, 114; specialisation and, 91–2; speculative leaps and, 16, 36, 91, 99–100, 103–4, 259–60; unpredictability and, 84–5 Intel, 11, 90, 95 International Christelijk Steunfonds (ICS), 127–9, 131 International Harvester, 9 International Rescue Committee (IRC), 137–8, 139 internet, 12, 15, 63, 90, 113, 144, 223, 233, 238, 241; randomised experiments and, 235–6, 237; see also Google Iraq war: al Anbar province, 56–7, 58, 64, 76–7; civil war (2006), 39–40; Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP), 77; counterinsurgency strategy, 43, 45, 55–6, 58, 60–1, 63–4, 65; decentralisation and, 76–8, 79; feedback and, 43–5, 46, 57–8, 59–62; FM 3–24 (counter-insurgency manual), 63; Forward Operating Bases (FOBs), 51–3, 57, 65; Haditha killings (19 November 2005), 37–9, 40, 42, 43, 52; new technologies and, 71, 72, 74, 78–9, 196; Samarra bombing (22 February 2006), 39; Tal Afar, 51, 52, 53–5, 61, 64, 74, 77, 79; trial and error and, 64–5, 66–7; US turnaround in, 35, 40, 46, 50–1, 53–6, 57–8, 59–61, 63–5, 78; US/allied incompetence and, 38, 39–40, 42–5, 46, 50, 64, 67, 79, 223; Vietnam parallels, 46 J&P Coats, 9 Jacobs, Jane, 87 James, Jonathan, 30 Jamet, Philippe, 192 Janis, Irving, 62 Japan, 11, 143, 176, 204, 208 Jay-Z, 119 Jo-Ann Fabrics, 235 Jobs, Steve, 19 Joel, Billy, 247–8, 249 Johnson, President Lyndon, 46, 47, 49–50, 60, 62, 64, 78 Jones, Benjamin F., 91–2 Joyce, James, 260 JP Morgan, 188 Kahn, Herman, 93 Kahneman, Daniel, 32, 253 Kantorovich, Leonid, 68–9, 76 Kaplan, Fred, 77 Karlan, Dean, 135 Kauffmann, Stuart, 16, 103 Kay, John, 206–7, 208, 215, 259 Keller, Sharon, 252 Kelly, Terri, 230 Kennedy, President John F., 41, 47, 62–3, 84, 113 Kenya, 127–9, 131 Kerry, John, 20 Keynes, John Maynard, 181 Kilcullen, David, 57, 60–1 Klemperer, Paul, 96, 205 Klinger, Bailey, 145 Kotkin, Stephen, 25 Kremer, Michael, 127–8, 129 Krepinevich, Andy, 45 Lanchester, John, 188 leaders: decision making and, 40–2; failure of feedback and, 30–1, 62; grandiosity and, 27–8; ignoring of failure, 36; mistakes by, 41–2, 56, 67; need to believe in, 5–6; new leader as solution, 59 Leamer, Ed, 132* Leeson, Nick, 184–5, 208 Lehman Brothers, 193, 194, 196–200, 204–5, 208, 215–16 Lenin Dam (Dnieper River), 24 Levine, John, 48–9 Levitt, Steven, 132–3 Liberia, 136–9 light bulbs, 162, 177 Lind, James, 122–3 Lindzen, Richard, 156 Livingstone, Ken, 169 Lloyd’s insurance, 183 Lloyds TSB, 214 Local Motors, 90 Lockheed, Skunk Works division, 89, 93, 224, 242 Lomas, Tony, 196, 197–200, 204, 205, 208, 219 Lomborg, Bjorn, 94 longitude problem, 105–7, 108 Lu Hong, 49 Lübeck, 149–50, 151–2, 153 Luftwaffe, 81–2 MacFarland, Colonel Sean, 56–7, 64, 74, 76–7, 78 Mackay, General Andrew, 67–8, 74 Mackey, John, 227, 234 Madoff, Bernard, 208212–13 Magnitogorsk steel mills, 24–5, 26, 153 Malawi, 119 Mallaby, Sebastian, 150, 151 management gurus, 8, 233 Manhattan Project, 82, 84 Manso, Gustavo, 102 Mao Zedong, 11, 41 market system: competition, 10–11, 17, 19, 75, 95, 170, 239–46; ‘disciplined pluralism’, 259; evolutionary theory and, 17; failure in as natural, 10, 11, 12, 244, 245–6; feedback loops, 141; innovation and, 17, 95–7, 104; patents and, 95–7; trial and error, 20; validation and, 257–8 Markopolos, Harry, 212–13 Marmite, 124 Maskelyne, Nevil, 106 mathematics, 18–19, 83, 146, 247; financial crisis (from 2007) and, 209, 213; prizes, 110, 114 Mayer, Marissa, 232, 234 McDonald’s, 15, 28 McDougal, Michael, 252 McGrath, Michael, 252 McMaster, H.R.
Cuba Travel Guide by Lonely Planet
Bartolomé de las Casas, battle of ideas, business climate, car-free, carbon footprint, cuban missile crisis, G4S, glass ceiling, haute cuisine, Hernando de Soto, Kickstarter, Monroe Doctrine, new economy, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, transatlantic slave trade, transcontinental railway, transfer pricing, urban planning
Parque Histórico Militar Morro-Cabaña Top Sights 1Fortaleza de San Carlos de la CabañaC2 Sights 2Área Expositiva Crisis de OctubreC2 3 Cañonazo Ceremony C3 4 Castillo de los Tres Santos Reyes Magnos del Morro A1 5 Maritime Museum A1 6 Museo de Comandancia del Che C3 7 Museo de Fortificaciones y Armas C2 Eating 8 Paladar Doña Carmela C1 9Restaurante la Divina PastoraB2 10Restaurante los Doce ApóstolesA2 Drinking Nightlife 11 Bar el Polvorín A1 Área Expositiva Crisis de Octubre MONUMENT OFFLINE MAP GOOGLE MAP (admission CUC$1) Looking surprisingly innocuous today, the missiles that nearly caused World War III are laid out on a grassy knoll behind the Cabaña fort put there on the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 2012. Here you can ponder the Soviet R-12 nuclear rocket with a range of 2100km that was stationed in Pinar del Río in 1962 and caused the Kennedy administration and the rest of the world plenty of sleepless nights. Also on show is the wing of an American U2 spy plane shot down over Holguín province on October 27, 1962. Castillo de los Tres Santos Reyes Magnos del Morro FORT OFFLINE MAP GOOGLE MAP (El Morro; admission CUC$6) This imposing fort was erected between 1589 and 1630 in order to protect the entrance to Havana harbor from pirates and foreign invaders (the French corsair Jacques de Sores had sacked the city in 1555).
Originally titled the Rover’s Athletic Club, it was established by a group of British diplomats in the 1920s, and the diplomatic corps is largely the clientele today. There are nine holes with 18 tees to allow 18-hole rounds. Green fees start at CUC$20 for nine holes and CUC$30 for 18 holes, with extra for clubs, cart and caddie. In addition, the club has five tennis courts and a bowling alley. Fidel and Che Guevara played a round here once as a publicity stunt soon after the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. The photos of the event are still popular. Che won – apparently. Eating Restaurante el Bambú VEGETARIAN $ (Jardín Botánico Nacional; meals CUC$1; noon-5pm, closed Mon; ) This is the first and finest example of vegetarian dining in Havana, and has been a leading advocate for the benefits of a meatless diet (a tough call in the ration-card economy of Cuba). The all-you-can-eat lunch buffet is served alfresco, deep in the botanical gardens, with the natural setting paralleling the wholesome tastiness of the food.
Get out of the tour bus and see, smell and taste the agricultural beauty of Valle de Viñales (Click here). Mount a horse and take a ride with the guajiros into the Valle de Palmarito in Parque Nacional Viñales (Click here). Get gobsmacked by the grottos and caves of Gran Caverna de Santo Tomás (Click here), one of Latin America’s largest subterranean systems. Recharge your batteries on dreamy Cayo Jutías (Click here). See where Che Guevara played chess during the Cuban Missile Crisis in Cueva de los Portales (Click here). History The pre-Columbian history of western Cuba is synonymous with the Guanahatabeys, a group of nomadic Indians who lived in caves and procured their livelihood largely from the sea. Less advanced than the other indigenous peoples who lived on the island, the Guanahatabeys were a peaceful and passive race whose culture had developed more or less independently of the Taíno and Siboney cultures further east.
On Power and Ideology by Noam Chomsky
anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, feminist movement, imperial preference, land reform, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Stanislav Petrov, union organizing
The protocol for the Soviet military was to retaliate with a nuclear attack of its own. The officer on duty, Stanislav Petrov, decided to disobey orders and not report the warnings to his superiors. Thanks to his dereliction of duty, we are alive to reflect on the black swan we prefer not to see. Other studies reveal a shocking array of close calls, even apart from the “most dangerous moment in history” during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. An enormous gap in these lectures, not appreciated at the time, was that another and even more ominous threat was inexorably advancing: environmental catastrophe. By now no reasonable person can doubt that we are marching resolutely toward a grim fate, and not far in the future, unless the course we are following is radically altered. Meanwhile, the neoliberal assault on the population that gained force under Reagan has taken an increasing toll, particularly after the collapse of the housing bubble in 2008 and the ensuing financial meltdown, the worst blow to the international economy since the Great Depression.
These were “the good old days,” when the country was still available as a base for U.S. terrorism, subversion and aggression and there was therefore no need for Western humanists to agonize over democracy and human rights in Nicaragua or to conduct a terrorist war in order “to fit Nicaragua back into a Central American mode” and to “demand reasonable conduct by a regional standard,” the proper goal of U.S. policy, the editors of the Washington Post declare—the “regional standard” and “Central American mode” being exemplified by El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and the Somoza regime. The most famous of the 19 incidents was the Cuban missile crisis, when U.S. planners estimated the probability of war at one-third to one-half as they rejected Khrushchev’s offer to end the crisis by the simultaneous withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba and American missiles from Turkey—obsolete missiles in the latter case (they were being replaced by Polaris submarines), for which a withdrawal order had already been issued but not yet executed. This remarkable decision is regarded with much pride among U.S. elites.
Marx at the Arcade: Consoles, Controllers, and Class Struggle by Jamie Woodcock
4chan, Alexey Pajitnov wrote Tetris, anti-work, augmented reality, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, Boris Johnson, Build a better mousetrap, butterfly effect, call centre, collective bargaining, Columbine, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, David Graeber, deindustrialization, deskilling, Donald Trump, game design, gig economy, glass ceiling, global supply chain, global value chain, Hacker Ethic, Howard Zinn, John Conway, Kickstarter, Landlord’s Game, late capitalism, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, Minecraft, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Oculus Rift, pink-collar, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, union organizing, unpaid internship, V2 rocket
In 1960, John Burgeson, off sick from work at IBM, designed a baseball simulation. Returning to work in 1961, he ran the statistics-heavy program on an IBM 1620. The same year, Raytheon developed a simulation of the Cold War for the US military. The simulation was too complex for most users, so an alternative analog version was developed.29 In 1962, two major events in the early history of videogames took place. The first followed the Cuban Missile Crisis, which saw the launch of the computer war game STAGE (Simulation of Total Atomic Global Exchange) by the US Department of Defense. Rather than ending in mutually assured destruction, the simulation predicted that the United States would defeat the Soviet Union in a thermonuclear war.30 Unfortunately, unlike in WarGames, there is no record of the simulation playing tic-tac-toe to show otherwise (luckily, this has never been tested in practice; otherwise the history of videogames—and the rest of the world—would be much shorter.)
., 115 Blizzard, 28 Bogost, Ian, 51, 152 Bond, James, 115 Borderlands, 30 Brazil, 98 Brecht, Bertolt, 142–43 Breitbart News, 154–55 Brentano’s Bookstore, 139 Brexit, 145 British Army, 54, 57 British Petroleum, 25 Broderick, Matthew, 19–20 Bungie, 47 Burgeson, John, 20 C Caillois, Roger, 16–17, 125, 139, 151 California, 39 Call of Duty, 30, 55, 58, 117, 123 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, 118 Call of Duty: Black Ops, 119 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, 118 Call of Duty: WWII, 39 Cambridge, 19 Campbell, Colin, 131 Canada, 98 Capital (Marx), 8, 53, 67–69, 74 Carbo-Mascarell, Rosa, 145 Carleton College, 22 Castells, Manuel, 75 Chapman, Adam, 118 China, 35, 37–39, 46–47, 53, 73, 140, 155 Chomp, 23 CIA, 119 Civilization, 2, 31, 129–33 CivilizationEDU, 132 Civilization VI, 131 Clancy, Tom, 120 Clash of Clans, 32 Class Struggle, 139, 145 Cleaver, Harry, 67 Cold War, 20, 28, 119 Columbine, 116 Commander Keen, 1 Communism, 131 Condition of the Working Class in England, 67 Congo, 140 Conservative Party, 40, 42, 145 Conviction, 121 Cook, Mike, 137 Corbyn, Jeremy, 145 Corbyn Run, 145 Counter-Strike, 2, 31, 39, 52, 70, 122, 150, 154, 156–57 Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, 39, 122 Crash Bandicoot, 152 Creative Skillset, 87 Croft, Lara, 29, 152 CrossFire, 32, 38 Crusades, 4 Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly, 114 Cuban Missile Crisis, 20 D DARPA. See Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Dartmouth College, 22 Deep Blue, 29 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, 54 Delightful Murder (Mandel), 106–7 Deliveroo, 102 Destiny, 47, 81 Deus Ex, 126 Didžgalvytė, Marijam, 144–46 Digital Equipment PDP-8, 23 Discord, 99 Dizzy, 2 DMA Design Limited, 40 Donkey Kong, 25 Doom, 29 Doom II, 54 Dota 2, 32, 70, 150 Douglas, A.
The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage, and Fear in the Cyber Age by David E. Sanger
active measures, autonomous vehicles, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, British Empire, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, computer age, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Google Chrome, Google Earth, Jacob Appelbaum, John Markoff, Mark Zuckerberg, MITM: man-in-the-middle, mutually assured destruction, RAND corporation, ransomware, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, Valery Gerasimov, WikiLeaks, zero day
One doesn’t have to endorse Kissinger’s conclusions in that book—especially his suggestion that the United States could fight and survive a limited nuclear war—to admire his understanding that after the invention of the Bomb, nothing could ever be the same. “A revolution cannot be mastered until it is understood,” he wrote. “The temptation is always to seek to integrate it into familiar doctrine: to deny a revolution is taking place.” It was time, he said, “to attempt an assessment of the technological revolution which we have witnessed in the past decade” and to understand how it affected everything we once thought we understood. The Cuban Missile Crisis erupted only five years later, the closest the world came in the Cold War to annihilation by miscalculation. That crisis was followed by the first efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons before they dictated our fate. While most nuclear analogies do not translate well to the new world of cyber conflict, this one does: We all live in a state of fear of how our digital dependencies can be hijacked by nations that in the past decade have discovered a new way to pursue old struggles.
A smattering of cybersecurity firms and private investigators came out with alternative theories. Some said it was the Chinese. Or the Russians. Or a disgruntled insider. Even Wired magazine, usually pretty careful about such topics, characterized the case as “flimsy.” The truth was that the Obama administration had done a poor job of making its case against North Korea. There was no “Cuban Missile Crisis moment,” in which Obama, like Kennedy fifty-two years before, presented his evidence. And what would he have shown? Everyone could recognize the Soviet missiles in Kennedy’s spy-satellite photographs. But computer code was not made for vivid visuals. “The best you can say is that there isn’t a shred of evidence that anyone else was behind the hack,” Kevin Mandia said to me at the time, after being called in to Sony to help.
There were exceptions, of course, moments of national terror: the British burned Washington in the War of 1812, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, and al Qaeda brought down the Twin Towers and struck the Pentagon. But we knew the only attack that could threaten the existence of the country would come at the tip of a Soviet or Chinese intercontinental missile, or in the form of terrorists with access to nuclear weapons. And after some terrifying close calls, notably the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, we found an uneasy balance of power with our primary adversaries—mutually assured destruction—to deter the worst. It worked, or has so far, because the cost of failure is so high. In the cyber age, we have not found that balance, and probably never will. Cyberweapons are entirely different from nuclear arms, and their effects have so far remained relatively modest. But to assume that will continue to be true is to assume we understand the destructive power of the technology we have unleashed and that we can manage it.
Chasing the Moon: The People, the Politics, and the Promise That Launched America Into the Space Age by Robert Stone, Alan Andres
affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Charles Lindbergh, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, feminist movement, invention of the telephone, low earth orbit, more computing power than Apollo, New Journalism, Norman Mailer, operation paperclip, out of africa, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, the scientific method, traveling salesman, Works Progress Administration
* * * — THE KENNEDY ADMINISTRATION’S problems with Cuba and the Soviet Union reached a climax when American intelligence aircraft flying over the Caribbean island discovered photographic evidence of the deployment of medium- and intermediate-range ballistic nuclear missiles. For thirteen days during October 1962, the fate of the world hung in the balance as the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in a nerve-racking battle of wills, which subsided only when the Soviets announced they would dismantle and remove the missiles. The Cuban Missile Crisis brought the world closer to nuclear annihilation than any other moment in the history of the planet and served as a cautionary lesson to both superpowers. For those who experienced those days in October of 1962, life would never be quite the same. As the crisis developed, the Pentagon distributed a list of likely missile targets in the United States. Upon learning that the Marshall Space Flight Center was on the list, Wernher von Braun, the man who more than any other person spearheaded the technological development of the ICBM, made a decision to construct a reinforced-concrete family bomb shelter behind his custom-built three-level house in Huntsville, Alabama.
But these plans allowed no accommodations for family members. After sitting through some of the White House strategy meetings, Minow had come to believe the Third World War was likely, and he confided to his wife that he’d already decided not to go if he received an order to evacuate; instead, he would return home to be with his family. In Minow’s estimation, Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis was his greatest legacy. He recalls attending meetings in which the president’s military advisers pushed Kennedy to bomb Cuba. Had it not been for the previous mistake of the Bay of Pigs, Minow believes, Kennedy wouldn’t have had the courage to overrule his military. When he chose to address the General Assembly of the United Nations a year after the crisis, President Kennedy wondered if perhaps space might serve as the diplomatic bridge between the two superpowers.
Unlike Armstrong, he couldn’t dismiss the possibility that the two craft might affect each other’s orbits. Just to be safe, Kraft called Borman at the White House and asked if he could use his new connections in the USSR to obtain details about Luna 15’s trajectory. From his small White House office, Borman sent a teletype message to the head of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, using the now-famous hotline set up by President Kennedy in the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis. In his message, Borman requested Luna 15’s orbital parameters, in accordance with the rules of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. Within hours Borman received a response, revealing that Luna 15’s trajectory would not intersect Apollo 11’s orbit, as well as an assurance that should anything change he would be notified promptly. This was the first cooperative message exchanged between the Soviets and the Americans during an ongoing space mission.
Siege: Trump Under Fire by Michael Wolff
Bernie Madoff, Boris Johnson, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, forensic accounting, gig economy, high net worth, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, immigration reform, impulse control, Jeffrey Epstein, Julian Assange, oil shale / tar sands, Potemkin village, Saturday Night Live, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, WikiLeaks
(Bannon knew Cambridge well: he and Halper walked the same streets as members of the back-office staff of Cambridge Analytica, the shady tech company with which Bannon was associated that had more or less unscrupulously acquired vast amounts of election metadata.) Indeed, Stefan Halper was a spy, a heavy hitter in the U.S.-UK spy world, who had been married to the daughter of a legendary CIA figure, Ray Cline, who was on the case during the Cuban Missile Crisis. And Halper was also a professional spy recruiter—a flytrap in Cambridge. Now, Halper conveniently bubbled up from the deep state to recruit several Trump stumblebums. In Bannon’s view, the Obama White House and the intelligence community would of course have had close eyes on Trump during the campaign. Trump had been a suspicious character for years; how could responsible parties not take alarmed note of his sudden presence on the world stage?
Trump liked the idea so much that he decided to announce the national emergency in an address to the nation from the Oval Office on January 8. Bannon was skeptical. He warned against both the format and the venue, and said Trump would be judged—and not favorably—against his presidential peers, each memorialized by the Oval Office proscenium. But that, of course, was why Trump was so insistent about announcing it this way: he wanted to show everybody that he was one of them. The border crisis, he declared, was like the Cuban Missile Crisis, when John F. Kennedy faced down the Russians and addressed the nation from the Oval Office. Well, Bannon thought, at least the president was trying to seize the day. Even if Trump sniffed oddly, as he tended to do when he read from a teleprompter, and even if, in a formal setting, he could never quite match his expression to his words, and even if the stage lights magnified the orange of his hair, the declaration of a national emergency would, Bannon hoped, help him appear to be presidential.
Gore Calamari, Matt Calley, Brian Cambridge Analytica Cameron, Ron campaign finance laws Camp of the Saints, The (Raspail) Canada Car & Driver caravan Carlson, Tucker Carter, Sara Catholics CBS Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Chao, Elaine Charles, Prince of Wales China North Korea and tariffs and China Club Christie, Chris Churchill, Winston Cipollone, Pat Citibank Citizens United Clapper, James Clifford, Clark Cline, Ray Clinton, Bill impeachment and Rich pardon and Clinton, Hillary Clinton Cash (Schweizer) Clinton Foundation CNBC CNN Coats, Dan Cobb, Ty Cohen, Michael Daniels and FBI raid and guilty plea and McDougal and Trump Tower Moscow and Cohen, Samantha Cohn, Gary Cohn, Roy Colbert, Stephen Comey, James Ashcroft and Clinton’s emails and deep state and elections of 2016 and Flynn and Giuliani and publishes Higher Loyalty Comstock, Barbara Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) Conway, George Conway, Kellyanne Corsi, Jerome Costa, Robert Coulter, Ann Council for the American Worker Crimea criminal justice reform Cruz, Ted Cuban Missile Crisis Cummings, Elijah Cuomo, Andrew Daily Beast Daily Caller Daily Mail Daniels, Stormy Davidson, Keith M. Davos in the Desert Dean, John de Blasio, Bill debt ceiling “deep state” Defending Democracy Together Defense Department Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Delgado, A. J. Delta Kappa Epsilon (DKE) Democratic National Committee (DNC) Democratic Party Bannon’s contempt for Barr as attorney general and China and gain control of House government shutdown and Kavanaugh and midterms and Mueller report and Russian hacking and Steele dossier and Team America and Trump accuses, of colluding with Russia Wall and Deng, Wendi Deng Xiaoping deplorables Deripaska, Oleg “Mr.
How PowerPoint Makes You Stupid by Franck Frommer
Albert Einstein, business continuity plan, cuban missile crisis, dematerialisation, hypertext link, invention of writing, inventory management, invisible hand, Just-in-time delivery, knowledge worker, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, new economy, oil shock, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, union organizing
On the subject of “information culture” more generally, it is worth consulting Armand Mattelart, Histoire de la société de l’information (Paris: La Découverte, 2001), 35–41, where one discovers the essential role of the former mathematician, Harvard professor, and president of Ford, Robert McNamara, in the rationalization of management in the Kennedy administration, where he was secretary of defense during the Cuban missile crisis and the beginnings of the Vietnam War. The American sociologist Daniel Bell names in the pantheon of figures inspiring technocracy Henri de Saint-Simon, Frederick Taylor, and Robert McNamara. 9. See, for example, www.slideshare.net, http://presentationload.com, http://thepowerpointtemplates.com. 10. Some ironically decipher the acronym as please don’t change anything, to demonstrate that quality has already been achieved. 11.
See illustration The Cognitive Style of PowerPoint (Tufte), xiii–xiv, 201 on graphs, 89–90 on lists, 60, 64 Commodore, 9 communication normalized, 224 and screen, 79 societal foundation, 225 and work, 33–34 Compaq, 9 competencies, 210–14 employment, 213–14 school, 211 work, 212 computer home ownership, 220 use in higher education, 199, 220 See also microcomputer computer science, 134 consultants, 130–35, 141–51, 181–82, 188 Anglo versus European, 146–48 company slides, 145–46 computer science, 134 formalization, 132 Minto pyramid principle, 145 models, 131–33 Taylor & Fayol, 131 reductionism, 132, 135 content versus form, 42–43 form dominates, 126, 222 control education, 221 and PowerPoint, 46–48 Conway, Melvin, 63 Craig, Russell, 201 critical thinking, 165, 228 cryptography, 19 Cuban missile crisis, 155–56 Darcos, Xavier, 181, 218, 220 Debord, Guy, 223, 226 Del Rey, Angélique, 211 Deming, William Edwards, 136 Deming’s wheel, 136 diagrams and graphs, 86–92, 135–41 BCG matrix, 137 Deming’s wheel, 136 flow chart, 140 Porter matrix, 137–38 SWOT matrix, 139 See also illustration Diffie, Whitfield, 19–20 digital natives, 214, 224 digital workplace, 217–21 Duarte, Nancy, 86 DuPont and graphic presentations, 2–3 econometrics, 133 economization, 168–75, 181–82 education, 199–209 business, 192, 211–12 competencies, 210–14 computer use, 199, 220 digitalization, 216–22 digital workplace, 217–21 divisions by discipline, 200, 208–9 employment, 206–7, 213–14 expenditures for training, 192–93 France versus Anglo-Saxon, 208, 216 humanities and social sciences, 205–7 employability, 206–7 images and animation, 203 note taking abandoned, 204 outcomes, 201, 220 PowerPoint, 214–15 versus learning, 197–99, 201–2, 227–28 versus teaching, 204–5 privatization, 219 sell yourself, 222 whiteboards, 215–17 See also readability employee adaptability, 32, 41 autonomous, 8–9, 12, 28, 48 and employer relations, 212 See also Taylorism; workplace English, 53, 208 See also language Enjeux–Les Échos, 224 Eurotunnel, 70–71 Facebook, 65 Fallows, James, 159, 161 Farkas, David, 51, 200 Fayol, Henri, 131 Fiasco (Ricks), 163–64 Le Figaro, 205 flow chart, 140 Forethought, 21 France economization, 168–75, 181–82 education, 209 versus Anglo-Saxon, 208, 216 France Telecom, 180–89 jobs, 182, 189 slides, 183–89 Franks, Tommy, 163 Friedman, Milton, 191 Gaglio, Gérard, 34, 39, 102, 105 Gallo, Carmine, 117–18 The Presentation Secrets of Steve Jobs, 117 Gardiner, Sam, 159–60 Gaskins, Robert, 15–25, 39 background, 17–18 Bell Northern to Forethought, 20–21 criticizes PowerPoint, 24–25 first PowerPoint presentation, 15–16 Microsoft acquires PowerPoint, 21–22 Gates, Bill, 21, 115–16 Gaulejac, Vincent de, 223 globalization, 173–74 See also economization Godin, Seth, 86 Goody, Jack, 57–58 Google, 65, 94, 97 Gore, Al, 227 An Inconvenient Truth, 73, 118–24 Apple Macintosh, 120 awards and ticket sales, 119 biographical details, 121 graphic presentation.
The Psychopath Test: A Journey Through the Madness Industry by Jon Ronson
At that young age it’s an extremely difficult transition. . . .” He trailed off. “So you saw your wife as something that was holding you back?” I said. Al shrugged and glanced at the floor for a moment. “I was stationed on a nuclear missile site,” he said. “You’re dealing with nuclear weapons. I was there during the Cuban missile crisis. The job’s very serious. You’ve got a mission. If you fail the mission, a lot of people could be seriously hurt. And does that commitment conflict with your family life? Of course it does. . . .” Al was referring to the time during the Cuban missile crisis that he left his five-months-pregnant wife home alone with no food or access to money and in desperation she had to call her mother and sister for help. “Oh!” I said. “One more thing. When you see a crime-scene photograph—something really grotesque, someone’s face blown apart or something—do you react with horror?”
The Age of Illusions: How America Squandered Its Cold War Victory by Andrew J. Bacevich
affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, clean water, Columbian Exchange, Credit Default Swap, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, gig economy, global village, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, illegal immigration, income inequality, Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, Marshall McLuhan, mass incarceration, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, Norman Mailer, obamacare, Occupy movement, planetary scale, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Potemkin village, price stability, Project for a New American Century, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Saturday Night Live, school choice, Silicon Valley, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, WikiLeaks
Fewer still imagined that it would ever end. So once beyond its sobering initial phases, highlighted by dangerous confrontations centering on Berlin and the Korean peninsula, the Cold War was not so much waged as managed. Dramatic rhetorical flourishes notwithstanding, both sides came to recognize that they shared a mutual interest in avoiding Armageddon, a point definitively driven home in 1962 by the Cuban Missile Crisis. The challenges inherent in achieving even that limited objective appeared likely to continue far into the future, as would the rivalry pitting the United States against the Soviet Union, the Free World against the Communist Bloc, the West against the East. Presidents might express ritualistic hopes of achieving world peace, but the immediate task was simply to prevent the superpower competition from getting out of hand.
See also post–Cold War (Emerald City) consensus Bush Jr. and Bush Sr. and citizens vs. soldiers and consequences of containment and critics and defined democracy and Dulles and end of, with fall of Berlin Wall freedom and geopolitics and globalization and Hillary Clinton and ideology and limits and materialism and morality and Nixon and president as leader of Free World and Reagan and religion and Trump and Vietnam and Collins, Gail Columbian Exchange Comey, James common good Communism capitalism vs. collapse of Nixon in China and Wallace and conservatives consumerism and materialism consumer protection containment Coolidge, Calvin Council on Foreign Relations credit card debt crime criminal justice reform Cruz, Ted Cuba invasion of 1898 Obama and Cuban Missile Crisis culture wars Culture Wars (Hunter) Cyrus the Great death penalty Declaration of Independence Defense Department Defense of Marriage Act (1996) deindustrialization Deliberate Force, Operation demagogues democracy Democratic Party primaries of 2016 “deplorables” depression and anxiety Desert Storm, Operation Dewey, Commodore Dewey, Thomas discrimination diversity military and Obama and divorce Donaldson, Sam Doonesbury (Trudeau) Douthat, Ross Dowd, Maureen drugs and substance abuse Dukakis, Michael Duke University Dulles, John Foster Earth Summit (Rio de Janeiro, 1992) Eastern Europe economy.
The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? by Ian Bremmer
affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, BRICs, British Empire, centre right, collective bargaining, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, diversified portfolio, Doha Development Round, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global reserve currency, global supply chain, invisible hand, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, laissez-faire capitalism, low skilled workers, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, new economy, offshore financial centre, open economy, race to the bottom, reserve currency, risk tolerance, shareholder value, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trade route, tulip mania, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game
But that’s about 12 percent of what the United States now spends on its military each year—and an even smaller percentage if supplementary U.S. spending on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is included. For the projection of power around the world, no weapon is more valuable than an aircraft carrier. The United States has eleven carrier groups; China has none. In short, the gap between the U.S. and Chinese militaries is considerable, and widening in America’s favor. But though state capitalism’s challenge to free markets won’t generate the drama of the Berlin airlift or the Cuban missile crisis, it can compromise a country’s security and the future of the global economy. With mercantilism a thing of the past, few now doubt that commerce can generate new wealth and expand more than one economy at a time. The end of the Cold War and the growth of emerging-market states like China, India, Russia, Brazil, and others have created new opportunities for precisely that kind of mutually profitable exchange.
Calderón, Felipe Camara, Moussa Dadis Canada capitalism, free market better government produced by different models of mixed skepticism of Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (Schumpeter) capitalism, state, see state capitalism Caribbean Community (Caricom) Castro, Fidel CEDIGAZ Chávez, Hugo Chayefsky, Paddy Check Point Software Chemezov, Sergei Chen Yun child-labor laws Chile China African commercial ties with banks in decoupling and in economic crisis economic growth in economic reforms in foreign direct investment in Internet in IPR violations by military of oil demand in sovereign wealth funds in Soviet split with “special economic zones” in state-owned enterprises in stimulus package in trade by China Development Bank China Investment Corporation (CIC) China Mobile China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Christian Science Monitor Citgo Petroleum Corporation Citigroup Clinton, Bill Clinton, Hillary Coca-Cola Colbert, Jean-Baptiste Cold War collateralized debt options Commercial International Merchant Bankers Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) communism Communist Party, Chinese Communist Party, India Companhia Vale do Rio Doce companies, privately owned see also specific companies companies, state-owned see also national oil and gas corporations consumer sovereignty Conté, Lansana Correa, Rafael Costa Rica Council on Foreign Relations credit-default swaps Cuba Cuban missile crisis Daimler/Chrysler Davidson, Christopher Declaration of Independence decoupling Defense Department, U.S. democracy Democratic Party, U.S. Deng Xiaoping Denmark Deripaska, Oleg derivatives Deutsche Bank dictatorship dirigisme dollar, U.S. Dongfeng Motor Corporation dot-com bubble Drake, Francis Dubai Dubai Ports World Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success (Davidson) Dubai World Dutch East India Company Dutch tulip mania East Siberian Gas Company Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) Democracy Index Ecuador Egypt Egyptian General Petroleum Company Eisenhower, Dwight D.
Democracy Incorporated by Sheldon S. Wolin
affirmative action, Berlin Wall, British Empire, centre right, coherent worldview, collective bargaining, colonial rule, corporate governance, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, illegal immigration, invisible hand, mass incarceration, money market fund, mutually assured destruction, new economy, offshore financial centre, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, single-payer health, stem cell, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thorstein Veblen
As then Vice President Nixon explained, “tactical atomic explosives are now conventional.”52 When the Cold War threatened to become too normal and abstract, déjà vu all over again, there would be “war scares,” including air raid drills during which children practiced protecting themselves from nuclear attacks by huddling under their schoolroom desks.53 Perhaps the most unnerving example of the mentality at work constructing a Cold War power imaginary was the doctrine of “Mutual Assured Destruction” formulated in the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Instead of targeting an enemy’s military facilities “each side should target the other’s cities” in order to cause the most casualties possible. “The assumption behind it,” according to one historian, “was that if no one could be sure of surviving a nuclear war, there would not be one.”54 If there had been one, incinerated parents could die comforted with the knowledge that, thanks to school desks, their children would have been spared.
Foreign affairs, like military affairs, were about power politics, unpredictable dangers—including threats to the very existence of the nation—complex strategies, and “the” national interest, subjects about which average citizens lacked the experience and competence to judge. The models for the kind of experienced expertise qualified to deal with high matters of state were the “wise men” assembled by President Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis and later by President Johnson for Vietnam strategies.11 Although the one was a near nuclear disaster (averted because in the end JFK followed his own judgment) and the other a clear disaster (plunged into because LBJ did follow his more hawkish advisers), neither resulted in discrediting the status of elitism or its claims. Two prominent neocons predicted that installing “a decent and democratic government in Baghdad” would be “a manageable task for the U.S.”12 As the second Iraq war proved, failure merely stiffens the resolve of elites and their defenders.
Bush administration, 94, 109, 143 and government, 111, 136, 137, 138–41, 144, 145–47, 160, 169 and health care, 109 Huntington on, 180, 181 and inequalities, 157, 269 and instability, 128, 129 and inverted totalitarianism, xviii, xxi, 44, 45, 47, 56–57, 61, 139, 185, 238–39 and Iraqi economy, 88 and Iraq War, 93, 193–94 and liberalism, 220 lobbying by, 51 and low-wage workers, 196 and managed citizenry, 107 and Mansfield, 173 and military, 45, 135, 136, 199–200 and myth, 13 and opinion manipulation, 60 political incorporation of, 91 political influence of, 66–67 and political parties, 201 and presidency, 102, 103 and Reagan, 272 and religion, 46, 116, 127, 128–29 and Republican Party, 63, 127, 150, 187, 201 rise of, xxii and Rumsfeld, 169 and science, 126, 132 and Smith, 123 and social programs, 111 and state, xxiii, 58, 63, 67, 87, 92, 112–13, 131, 135, 143, 195, 200, 220, 238–39, 284, 287 and Straussians, 168 and Superpower, 62, 102–3, 131, 132, 133, 139, 143 and taxation, 274 and technology, 132 and wartime sacrifice, 109–10. See also business Corwin, Edward, Total War and the Constitution, 16–17, 41–42, 50 Coughlin, Charles, 23 criminal justice system, 57, 58. See also judiciary/courts Cromwell, Oliver, 251 Cuba, 190 Cuban Missile Crisis, 33, 165 culture, xviii, 61, 63, 157 culture wars, 111–12, 224 Dahl, Robert, 51 Darwin, Charles, xxii Dean, Howard, 205, 216, 324n14 defendants, rights of, 78, 108, 182, 235. See also judiciary/courts deficits, 157, 270 Delay, Tom, 119 democracy: and American colonies, 150–51, 254, 255 and antidemocracy, xx–xxi and archaism, 121 Athenian, 95, 150, 151, 242–48, 256 as breaking with past, 273, 274, 275 and capitalism, 34, 267, 268–69 and citizens, 290–91 citizens as agents in, 60 citizens as source of power in, 90–91 and citizens’ participation, 121, 186–87 citizens’ responsibility in, 138 and classic totalitarianism, 50 and Cold War, 26, 36 and Cold War liberals, 27 conditional basis of authority in, 173 and consent, 76, 77, 79 consolidation of American, xix and Constitution, 219, 225–30, 242, 254 constitutional, 104 as contributing to Nazism and Fascism, 52–54 and corporations, 139–40, 187, 258 corruption in, 245 decline of, 107 and despotism, 79–80 development of American, 255–58 and education, 161 and election of 2000, 102 and elections, 147–48 and elites, 55, 159, 160, 166, 173, 234, 245–46 and empire, 20, 52, 70, 97, 100, 189, 191, 194, 244–45, 247–48, 267, 273 and equality, 61, 186, 268–69 essentials of, 212–13 and everyday vs. virtual reality, 268 exclusion of, 134 and extraordinary majority, 156 as failing, 259–60 and foreign policy, 165 and Founding Fathers, 155, 225–30, 229 and free enterprise, 91, 92 fugitive, 23, 227, 254, 255, 277, 278, 287, 288, 290 and government regulation, 195 and grievances, 255 Huntington on, 179, 181 and inequalities through capitalism, 157 and Internet, 233 and inverted totalitarianism, xxiv, 46, 47, 49, 52, 61, 259 in Iraq, 141–42 and Iraq War, 50 and irrationality, 280 Jefferson on, 256–57 and liberalism, 270 limited role of, 257 local character of, 291 Machiavelli on, 151–52 managed, xxiv, 47, 97, 102, 136–37, 140, 141, 142, 143, 149, 150, 155, 156, 157, 159, 166, 213, 229, 240, 257, 273, 280, 287 and managers, 145 Mansfield’s contempt for, 172 and military, 147 and The National Security Strategy of the United States, 85 Negroponte on, 134 and New Deal, 273 and NSC-68, 31 nurturance of, 81 and the people, 243 and Plato, 266 plebiscitary, 54 and postclassical Europe, 248–49 and privatization, 213 and public service, 146 and Putney debates, 250–53 and redress, 227 and religion, 2–3, 119 and Republican Party, 187, 224 revival of, 259, 273–75, 287–92 sacrifice under, 108 self-distrust of, 110 shareholder, 65 Smith on, 21 and Strauss, 167, 171 and Superpower, 51, 100, 101, 107, 233, 237, 260, 267 Tocqueville on, 79 and totalitarianism, 42–43, 54 and truth, 260–67 Turner on, 232–33 values of, 269 Zakaria’s attack on, 174–77, 178 Democratic Convention of 1968, 216 Democratic Party: centrism of, 206, 325n24 and Cold War, 27 in Congress, 111, 202–3 conservatism of, 206–7 constituency of, 149 and corporations, 207 and election of 2000, 166 and election of 2004, 205–6 and elimination of social programs, 156 and environment, 206, 207–8 financing of, 195 and government as enemy, 157 as inauthentic opposition, 201 and Iraq War, 103–4, 110 as majority party, 286, 287 and small government, 136 demos: and American colonies, 254 Athenian, 243, 246, 247, 250 decline of power of, 194 defined, 278 development of, 289–90 and elites, 290 and evolving American democracy, 258 fragmented, 277 as fugitive, 288 grievances of, 255 as irrational, 282 modern, 250 and past, 276 power of, 249–50.
Warnings by Richard A. Clarke
active measures, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anti-communist, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, Bernie Madoff, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, discovery of penicillin, double helix, Elon Musk, failed state, financial thriller, fixed income, Flash crash, forensic accounting, friendly AI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge worker, Maui Hawaii, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, mouse model, Nate Silver, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, Ponzi scheme, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart grid, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Y2K
The Soviets, already looking for a surprise attack, thought the Able Archer exercise was cover for a real attack. They ordered the Red Army to nuclear alert, sending submarines to sea, putting bombers in the air, and fueling missiles. When the NATO exercise ended, the Soviet Union gradually backed down too, but the incident brought the United States and Soviet Union closer to war than they had been since the Cuban Missile Crisis twenty years earlier. Certain tells had been identified by Charlie Allen and his staff to monitor the situation between Iraq and Kuwait. Months before, in January, he ordered his staff to review the Iraqi I&W target list. They refined the list and increased the priority of photographing the key units. He also ensured that the photo interpreters would give greater priority to those images.
The book received widespread attention in the media and, as we later learned, at the highest levels of government in Washington and Moscow. In retrospect it seems inexplicable that almost forty years after the first nuclear weapon was used, after the two superpowers had built tens of thousands of nuclear weapons, that the world’s most powerful nations did not really understand the implications of using them against one another. After all, they had come perilously close to fighting such a war several times, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 being the most famous. Both nations had nuclear-armed missiles on alert, capable of launching at a moment’s notice. On a normal day, the United States had B-52 bombers armed with nuclear weapons flying patrols just outside of Russian airspace, each with predetermined targets, waiting for the “go code.” Despite that massive adoption of nuclear weapons, there were things about them that we didn’t initially understand.
See also Upper Big Branch Mine disaster Cassandra system, 122, 125, 133, 137–38, 140–41 fatality rate, 123–24, 125–28 federal regulations, 124–30, 137–39 federal research program, 124–25 history of, 122–23 institutional refusal and, 137–42 Coastal wetlands, 41, 42–44 Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration Act (CWPPRA), 43–44 Coding errors, 366–67 Cognitive biases, 34–35, 171–72 heuristics and, 189–91 Cognitive style, 14–15 Cold and the Dark, The: The World after Nuclear War (Sagan, Ehrlich, and Kennedy), 273–74 Cold Start doctrine, 264–65, 267, 270 Cold War, 25–26, 267–68, 271–74, 277–78 Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), 147–48 Columbia University, 237, 238 Coming Plague, The (Garrett), 232 Complexity, and vulnerabilities, 366–67 Complexity Mismatch, 116, 178–79, 215, 299 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), 266 Computers in Crisis (Murray), 193–94 Conference on the Long-Term Worldwide Biological Consequences of Nuclear War (1983), 273 Congressional oversight committees, 355 Consensus science, 172–73 Continuous miners, 131–32 Conventional wisdom, 28, 355 Coplan, Jeremy, 186 Corvette hacks, 297–98 Cosmic Catastrophes (Morrison and Chapman), 302, 303, 304–5, 308–9, 312, 314–15, 319 Cost-benefit analysis, 361–62 Countervalue strike, 275, 278–79 Cowardice, 180 Cox, Jeff, 150 Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event, 307–9 Crichton, Michael, 172–73 Crick, Francis, 328 Crimea, 285 CRISPR, 231–32, 326, 327, 329–49 CRISPR/Cas9, 326, 330–49, 360, 366–67 CRISPR Therapeutics, 333 Critical infrastructure protection (CIP), 287 Critics, 168, 170, 186–88 Crittenden, Gary, 143–44, 156 Crocker, Ryan, 73 Crocker’s Rules, 208–9 Cuban Missile Crisis, 26, 274 Cybersecurity, 283–300 Cynomolgus monkeys, 334–35 Daniel, 2 DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), 210, 382n Darwin, Charles, 325 Data, 36–37, 184 “Decay heat,” 85 Decision makers (the audience), 168, 170, 176–82, 380n false Cassandras and, 191–98 making the same mistakes, 189–91 responses, 358–64 scanning for problems, 354–56 Deep Impact (movie), 313–14 Deep learning, 210, 212 Demon core, 83 Deutsche Bank, 157 Devil’s advocates, 359, 379n DiBartolomeo, Dan, 105–6 Diffusion of responsibility, 176–77, 215, 235, 321, 348 Dinosaurs, 307–9 DiPascali, Frank, 107 Disembodied AI, 207 DNA, 326, 327–28, 336–37 Dole, Bob, 28–29 Dot-com bubble, 147 Doudna, Jennifer, 326–30, 335–36, 338–41, 343, 345, 346–49, 360 Drijfhout, Sybren, 253 Duchenne muscular dystrophy, 332 Duelfer, Charles, 30–31 Eagles, the (band), 305 Earth Institute, 238 Earthquake preparedness, 352–53 Ebola virus, 3, 219–20 Edwards, Edwin, 43 Eemian interglacial, 249, 250 Eggers, Dave, 39 Egypt, 59, 63, 66–67 Ehrlich, Paul, 192–93 Ein-Dor, Tsachi, 13, 186, 380n Einstein, Albert, 185 Eisman, Steve, 149, 152 Electricity Information Sharing and Analysis Center (E-ISAC), 287 Electric Power Research Institute, 286 Electromagnetic pulse (EMP), 274, 352 Embodied AI, 206 EMCON (emissions control), 29–30 Empire State Building, 260 Empirical method, 36, 184, 185 Energy policy, 243–44 Enron, 152 Enthoven, Alain, 361 Epidemic Intelligence Service, 354–55 Epidemic That Never Was, The (Neustadt), 196–97 EQ (emotional quotient), 183 Erasmus Medical Center, 222 Ermarth, Fritz, 27 Erroneous Consensus, 172–73 Ethics of AI growth, 205–6 of gene editing, 334, 339–40, 343 Eugenics, 342, 344 Evolution, 329–33 Expert Political Judgment (Tetlock), 13–15 Explainable AI, 210 Fairfield Greenwich Group, 108, 113 Fallujah, 68, 69 False Cassandras, 191–98 Famines, 192 Farmington Mine disaster, 127–28 Farson, Richard, 175 “Fast-failure” review, 357 Fatalism, 2 Fate of the States (Whitney), 153 Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), 8, 100, 112, 115 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), 160 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 40, 46–48, 51, 53–54, 323–24 Hurricane Pam exercise, 40, 47–49 Federal Reserve Bank, 159 Feedback loops, 16, 192–93 Fermi, Enrico, 373n Feynman, Richard, 240 Figueres, Christiana, 247 Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, 162 Financial crisis of 2008, 143–65 Madoff fraud and SEC, 118–19 primary cause of, 147–48 Whitney and, 143–46, 148–50, 156–60 Flash Crash of 2010, 211 Fletcher, Charles, 256–57 Flood Control Act of 1928, 42 Flood Control Act of 1965, 46 Flu pandemic of 1918, 195, 198, 217, 221–24 Flu pandemic of 2009, 217–18, 221–22 Forbes, 154 Ford, Gerald, 196–97 Ford, Robert, 57–74 aid to Syrian opposition, 62–63, 64–65 ambassadorship in Egypt, 67 ambassadorship in Syria, 57–58 departure from Syria, 60–62 warning and prediction of, 64–74 Foreign Service, U.S., 57, 58, 67 Fortune, 146, 148–49, 161 Fossil fuels, 16, 42, 257–58.
Cybersecurity: What Everyone Needs to Know by P. W. Singer, Allan Friedman
4chan, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blood diamonds, borderless world, Brian Krebs, business continuity plan, Chelsea Manning, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, do-ocracy, drone strike, Edward Snowden, energy security, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fault tolerance, global supply chain, Google Earth, Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, John Markoff, Julian Assange, Khan Academy, M-Pesa, MITM: man-in-the-middle, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, packet switching, Peace of Westphalia, pre–internet, profit motive, RAND corporation, ransomware, RFC: Request For Comment, risk tolerance, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, Steve Jobs, Stuxnet, uranium enrichment, We are Anonymous. We are Legion, web application, WikiLeaks, zero day, zero-sum game
Instead, a nuclear arms race would shape the next 50 years of global politics, a time in which over one hundred thousand atomic bombs would be built and the world would almost be destroyed several times over, as during close calls like the Cuban Missile Crisis. While today’s emerging cyber arms races are far from identical to the Cold War, there are still lessons that can be learned from it. Or, to paraphrase Mark Twain, while history may not always repeat itself, “It does rhyme.” One of the most instructive lessons is that the initial periods of a burgeoning arms race are often the most dangerous. These early days have a dark combination. The possessors of the new technology see themselves as having a unique advantage but one that is fleeting, creating a “use it or lose it” mentality. It is also the period in which the technology and its consequences are least understood, especially by senior leaders. In the Cold War, for example, probably the scariest time was not the Cuban Missile Crisis, but the late 1940s and 1950s when the real-world versions of Dr.
The Berlin Wall: A World Divided, 1961-1989 by Frederick Taylor
anti-communist, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, German hyperinflation, Kickstarter, land reform, mass immigration, mutually assured destruction, oil shock, open borders, plutocrats, Plutocrats, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Sinatra Doctrine, the market place, young professional, éminence grise
Only if the ‘enemy’ agreed to respect totally the integrity of the GDR’s borders should this concession be extended. After one final Christmas agreement (1966), the concession was not renewed. It would be years before West Berliners could once again visit the East—as part of a more general settlement which went a long way to granting the Communist regime the recognition it craved.2 During the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, almost everyone had expected the Soviets to apply extra pressure via Berlin. The Americans had, after all, demanded the right to board and inspect Soviet missiles bound for Cuba. There had been anxiety that the Soviets would respond with a similar move against Allied traffic going into Berlin. This would have amounted to an effective blockade and put the West in a difficult position.3 The failure of Khrushchev to make such a move against Berlin, or anywhere else in the world where American interests were vulnerable, 336 / THE BERLIN WALL helped President Kennedy and his advisers to pull off a considerable victory over Cuba.
The inherently abnormal border situation had become, in effect, ‘normal’-proof, if anyone needs it, that people will get used to just about anything over time. The kind of polarised antiCommunist attitudes that had been general in West Berlin at the beginning of the 1960s had given way, for much of the population-including the political and media élite-at best to a more nuanced view of the Cold War, at worst to a bite-the-hand-that-feeds anti-Americanism. After the Cuban Missile Crisis, the main theatre of the Cold War did not switch back to Europe. Despite crablike progress towards a halftolerable status quo in Berlin during the rest of the decade, and the usual East-West name-calling, at no point did the city become a potential flashpoint for the Third World War as it had been between 1948 and 1963. ‘ICH BIN EIN BERLINER’ / 337 President Kennedy’s famous visit to Berlin in June 1963 represented a high-water mark in West Berlin’s self-conscious status as a beacon of freedom.
., 99, 171, 216; sworn in as president, 112; background and rise to power, 112-14; and ’missile gap’, 113, 116; and Khrushchev, 115, 121 summit with Khrushchev, 127-9, 131, 138, 208-9 television address, 131-4, 144-5, 148, 152, 209; and border closure, 145-6, 148, 152; ill health, 203; response to border closure, 145-6, 148, 152; irritation with Brandt, 219; Brandt’s letter to, 221-2, 226-8; reply to Brandt, 228-34, 244, 246-8; letter to Khrushchev, 277; and Checkpoint Charlie confrontation, 284-7; and Peter Fechter killing, 320-1; and Cuban Missile Crisis. 336; Berlin visit, 337-42; ’jelly donut’ story, 340-1; assassination, 341 Kennedy, Joseph, 112 INDEX / 511 Kennedy, Robert, 112, 114, 205, 223-4, 229; and Bolshakov channel, 284-5; and Berlin visit, 337; promotes cultural-exchange programme, 355 Kessler, General, 431, 441 Keutschen, 370 KGB, 149, 195, 198, 215, 291 Khrushchev, Leonid, 454 Khrushchev, Nikita, 81, 356, 403, 413, 417; denunciations of Stalin, 100, 103, 275, 281-2, 346; appoints Gomulka, 101; support for Ulbricht, 102, 105, 118; and rocketry and nuclear weapons, 102-3, 113, 116-18, 120-1, 134-5; declaration on prosperity, 103, 386; mocked by Stalin, 103, 117; provokes Berlin Crisis, 103-5; and Kennedy; and Ulbricht’s Berlin policy, 117, 122, 126-7, 137-8; relations with China, 118, 275-6, 287; relationship with Ulbricht, 119-20; stations missiles in GDR, 120; modest personal status, 123; summit with Kennedy, 127-9, 131, 138; and Kennedy’s television address, 132, 134; meeting with McCloy, 134-5; and border closure, 137, 139-41, 145-6, 148-9, 154, 158, 174; intentions over Berlin, 205-6, 211, 220, 224, 226, 251-2, 254, 269, 274, 288; intentions over GDR, 268, 271, 276-7, 286-8; and XXII.
Strategy: A History by Lawrence Freedman
Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, Black Swan, British Empire, business process, butterfly effect, centre right, Charles Lindbergh, circulation of elites, cognitive dissonance, coherent worldview, collective bargaining, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, defense in depth, desegregation, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, endogenous growth, endowment effect, Ford paid five dollars a day, framing effect, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, lateral thinking, linear programming, loose coupling, loss aversion, Mahatma Gandhi, means of production, mental accounting, Murray Gell-Mann, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Nelson Mandela, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, oil shock, Pareto efficiency, performance metric, Philip Mirowski, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, shareholder value, social intelligence, Steven Pinker, strikebreaker, The Chicago School, The Myth of the Rational Market, the scientific method, theory of mind, Thomas Davenport, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Torches of Freedom, Toyota Production System, transaction costs, ultimatum game, unemployed young men, Upton Sinclair, urban sprawl, Vilfredo Pareto, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game
I deal with this in my Kennedy’s Wars (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000). 49. Fred Kaplan, Wizards of Armageddon (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1991), 302. 50. Kaysen to Kennedy, September 22, 1961, Foreign Relations in the United States XIV-VI, supplement, Document 182. 51. Robert Kennedy, Thirteen Days: The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 (London: Macmillan, 1969), 69–71, 80, 89, 182. 52. Ernest May and Philip Zelikow, The Kennedy Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: W. W. Norton, 2002). 53. Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter, Controlling the Risks in Cuba, Adelphi Paper No. 17 (London ISS, February 1965). 54. Kahn, On Thermonuclear War, 226, 139. 55. Herman Kahn, On Escalation (London: Pall Mall Press, 1965). 56. Cited in Fred Iklé, “When the Fighting Has to Stop: The Arguments About Escalation,” World Politics 19, no. 4 (July 1967): 693. 57.
Government most influenced by Schelling during the 1960s was John McNaughton, an academic lawyer from Harvard who died in an air crash in July 1967. He had worked with Schelling on the Marshall Plan in the late 1940s, and the two remained good friends. When McNaughton spoke of arms control, for example, he showed interest in the notion of the “reciprocal fear of surprise attack” and “non-zero-sum games.”34 He is said to have remarked that the Cuban missile crisis demonstrated the realism of Schelling’s games.35 McNaughton was a key figure in the development of the U.S. policy on Vietnam, working closely with Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara and National Security Advisor McGeorge Bundy. One of his memos was famously described by a colleague as the reductio ad absurdum of the planner’s art, combining realpolitik with the hyper-rationalist belief in control of the most refined American think tank.36 In a report of a working group McNaughton chaired in February 1964,37 one suggestion was pure Schelling: it would be possible to influence Hanoi’s decisions by action designed “to hurt but not to destroy.”38 Also drawn from Schelling was the proposition that “a decision to use force if necessary, backed by resolute and extensive deployment, and conveyed by every possible means to our adversaries, gives the best present chance of avoiding the actual use of such force.”
See Ali, Mohammed Clay, Jenny Strauss, 26 Cleaver, Eldridge, 403 Clegg, Stewart, 559 Clifford, Clark, 447 Clinton, Bill, 434, 450–453 Clinton, Henry, 232 Clinton, Hillary, 453, 455 Co-opetition (Nalebuff and Brandenburger), 523, 710n6 coalitions Carmichael on, 296 Clausewitz on, 90–92 game theory and, 582–583 Hayden on, 376, 380 Napoleonic Wars and, 90–91, 115 Peloponnesian War and, 30, 32–35 Riker on, 581–583 Rustin on, 395 Second World War and, 141–143 Coast of Utopia, The (Stoppard), 265 cognition, hot and cold forms of, 598–599 Cohen, Eliot, 141, 214 Cold War Berlin blockade crisis and, 172–174 communication during, 167, 173 Cuban missile crisis and, 173–176, 190 deterrence theory and, 158–159, 165, 192 nuclear weapons and, 156–159, 167–168 origins of term, 145, 649n2 Cologne Workers Council, 257–258 Columbia University protests, 403–405 Command in the Air (Douhet), 125–126 Committee on Public Information (CPI, United States), 337, 340 communism. See also Lenin, Vladimir Ilych; Marx, Karl; Soviet Union origins of, 250, 254 permanent revolution and, 256 Spanish Civil War and, 279 Communist International.
Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge by Cass R. Sunstein
affirmative action, Andrei Shleifer, availability heuristic, Build a better mousetrap, c2.com, Cass Sunstein, cognitive bias, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, feminist movement, framing effect, hindsight bias, information asymmetry, Isaac Newton, Jean Tirole, jimmy wales, market bubble, market design, minimum wage unemployment, prediction markets, profit motive, rent control, Richard Stallman, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, slashdot, stem cell, The Wisdom of Crowds, winner-take-all economy
In a hidden profile experiment, a devil’s advocate should be able to do a lot of good. Note that in the blogosphere, it is tempting to try to make a name for oneself, or at least to have a little fun, by taking a contrarian position. The question is whether deliberating groups can give people an incentive to challenge the emerging or conventional wisdom. In at least one well-known case, this approach appeared to work. “During the Cuban missile crisis, President Kennedy 210 / Infotopia gave his brother, the Attorney General, the unambiguous mission of playing devil’s advocate, with seemingly excellent results in breaking up a premature consensus,”20 a consensus that might well have led to war. Research on devil’s advocacy in small groups provides suggestive evidence of the effectiveness of devil’s advocacy in real-world settings.21 Many experimenters have found that protection of genuine dissenting views can enhance group performance.22 But a formal requirement of devil’s advocacy enhances group performance far less than does authentic dissent.
., 36, 49–51 Constitutional Convention (1787), 49 conventional wisdom, 29, 201, 210 Cooper, David, 61–62 Copenhagen Consensus, 40, 237.n43 copyleft licenses, 167–68, 179 copyrights, 153–54, 164–67, 179–80 corroboration, 55, 95 Cowgill, Bo, 115, 116 Creative Commons License, 153, 179–80 creativity, 55, 180, 218, 222 open source projects and, 15, 177, 179, 195, 222 credibility, 85, 88 criminal punishment, 68 critical thinking, 201, 204, 213, 223 Cuban missile crisis (1962), 210–11 cultural differences, deliberation and, 71 cumulative knowledge, 9–11, 152 Cunningham, Ward, 149 customer reviews, 10, 18, 192–94 Daily Kos (blog), 6, 181, 189–90 Daily Me (personalized news), 9, 19, 97–98, 147, 219, 224 Daily Us (concept), 10, 11, 15, 219 Index / 261 DARPA Grand Challenge race, 116 Daschle, Tom, 107 Dean, Howard, 99 decision making, 12, 197 Defense Department, U.S., 3–4, 5, 107–8, 131–32, 198 deliberation, 11–14, 43, 45–103, 128, 130, 197, 218 accuracy and, 57–65, 84, 96, 200, 205, 209 amplification of errors and, 14, 17, 75–81, 101, 220 anonymity in, 208, 209, 223 Aristotle on, 49, 119 bias and, 58, 78, 80–81, 96, 212, 242n.8 blogs and, 190 cascade effects in, 14, 17, 75, 88– 92, 98–100, 201, 203, 205, 220 deferral in, 60, 66–67, 215, 216 errors and, 17, 35, 48, 54, 56, 58, 70–71, 96, 201, 221 experts and, 53–54, 65, 207, 211–12 failure factors in, 65–70, 83 failures of, 12–14 group confidence and unity in, 14, 55–57, 78, 86, 95, 102, 206, 238n.15 group polarization in, 17, 75, 92–98, 203, 205, 220–21 hidden profiles and, 17, 81–88, 100–101, 102, 203, 204, 205, 210, 212 improvement of, 19, 69, 102, 200–216, 223 incentives and, 201, 203–5, 223 information aggregation and, 7, 14, 54, 57–58, 70, 81–82 262 / Index informational influences on, 13–14, 66–67, 70–71, 79, 86– 88, 201, 220 Internet and, 8, 58, 148 key preconditions for, 71–73 majority rule in, 64–65 minority views in, 66, 70 in open source software development, 175, 176–77 prediction markets and, 104, 131, 145 private vs. social benefits and, 69–70, 104 problems concerning, 75–102 role assignment in, 211–12 self-silencing in, 14, 67–68, 70, 203–4, 209, 210 social pressures and, 14, 67–71, 79, 86–88, 203–4, 208–10, 220 statistical groups vs., 57, 58, 59–60 status of members and, 70, 87– 88, 206–8 success mechanisms of, 52–55 synergy and learning in, 54–55, 220 theory and practice of, 49–52 truth and, 53, 57, 63–65, 66, 96, 200, 216 Wikipedia and, 152, 195 deliberative democracy, 11–14, 49– 52, 72, 102 deliberative polls, 11–12 Delphi technique, 208–10 democracy, 202–3, 224 Condorcet Jury Theorem and, 27, 35–36, 43, 51 deliberative, 11–14, 49–52, 72, 102 majority rule and, 26–27 Democrats, 14, 70–71, 93, 95, 99, 214 Descartes, René, 217 Deutsche Bank, 117 devil’s advocates, 210–11 dictatorships, 202 disclosure, deliberation and, 69– 70, 201, 203–4 discrimination, 76 dispersed information, 15, 19, 197 blogs and, 18–19, 189, 218, 223 deliberation and, 49, 54, 57, 63, 75 deliberative democracy and, 50 experimental efforts in aggregating, 191–95 Hayek’s view of, 118–21, 130, 137 new technologies and, 217–18 open source initiatives and, 19, 166, 175, 177, 195, 218, 222 prediction markets and, 6, 19, 118–21, 130, 135–37, 144, 198 wikis and, 19, 152, 218, 222 dissenters in deliberating groups, 66, 67–68 devil’s advocates as, 210–11 diversity, 46, 50, 55, 213 dKosopedia (wiki), 6, 160 documentation creation, 149 Dorgan, Byron, 107 Dreamworks, 4–5 drug companies, 177 Dukakis, Michael, 138–39 Dylan, Bob, 166 Eastman Kodak, 163 eBay, 18, 194 echo chambers, 8, 97, 188, 191, 218, 224 Edley, Christopher, 214 efficient capital markets hypothesis, 127 egocentric bias, 80 Ehrlich, Paul, 144–45 elections, 40–41, 108–11, 138–42 Eli Lilly, 117 encyclopedias, online, 160.
Dataclysm: Who We Are (When We Think No One's Looking) by Christian Rudder
4chan, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, bitcoin, cloud computing, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Frank Gehry, Howard Zinn, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, John Snow's cholera map, lifelogging, Mahatma Gandhi, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nate Silver, Nelson Mandela, new economy, obamacare, Occupy movement, p-value, pre–internet, race to the bottom, selection bias, Snapchat, social graph, Solar eclipse in 1919, Steve Jobs, the scientific method
Google Books describes it well: it’s a chronicle of “American history from the bottom up”—and where most books treat leaders and big events, A People’s History shows us the homes, shops, farms, factories, and smaller worries of yesteryear. The thing is, as much as I love that book, and as much as it turns the schoolhouse version of American history on its head, Howard Zinn could still only tell us what he could see, the observable actions, the words spoken aloud. The hearts of women and men were beyond him. In the stress of the Cuban Missile Crisis, in the boredom of the trenches, in the liberation of the Pill—for all the moments of quiet joy and interior anguish lost to history, what if we had the data we have now? How much richer would our understanding be? 1 Google Trends expresses a search’s popularity with a simple index number proportional to the number of searches for the word or phrase. The indices for this epithet are within 10 percent of each other for the listed metro areas.
., 8.1, 12.1, 12.2 children, itr.1, 11.1, 11.2, 12.1, bm2.1 birth of raising of, 1.1, 2.1, 7.1 teenage, 1.1, 2.1, 3.1, 7.1, 7.2, 9.1, 10.1, 12.1, 13.1 China Christianity, 7.1, 13.1 Chungking Express (film) Civil War, The (TV series) Civil War, US, 3.1, 3.2 Clinton, Hillary Rodham Clovis people Coldest Winter Ever, The (Sister Souljah) Columbia University communication, 3.1, 5.1, 9.1, 13.1, 14.1 connections fostered by, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 13.1 identifying sources of momentous changes in, 3.1, 3.2 communities, itr.1, 12.1, 13.1 movement of virtual Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) computers, itr.1, itr.2, 5.1, 6.1, 8.1, 13.1 cookies on hard drives on laptop, itr.1, 13.1 limitations of science of, 4.1, 13.1, 14.1 sitting at software for, 4.1, 4.2, 6.1, 9.1, 11.1, 12.1, 14.1, 14.2 storage of data on, itr.1, 1.1, 3.1, 14.1 use of mouse with Condor, 9.1, 9.2 Congress, US, 9.1, 12.1 approval ratings of, itr.1, nts.1 see also House of Representatives, US Constitute project conversation, itr.1, 4.1, 7.1, 8.1 in-depth on-line, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4 on race Cornell University, 11.1, 12.1 Craigslist, itr.1, 12.1, nts.1 maps of, 12.1, 12.2, 12.3 “Missed Connections” section on, 12.1, 12.2 Crawford, Cindy Crick, Francis criminal justice system, 6.1, 7.1 black vs. white defendants in, 6.1, 8.1 Cronkite, Walter cross dressing Cuban Missile Crisis culturomics, 3.1, 3.2n curves, itr.1, itr.2, 7.1, 7.2, 9.1, bm2.1, nts.1 bell beta, itr.1, nts.1 customer relations management (CRM) customers contradictory behavior of Cyrus, Miley data, itr.1, 9.1, bm2.1 actor vs. acted upon in analysis of, itr.1, 1.1, 2.1, 4.1, 6.1, 14.1, bm2.1 collection of, itr.1, itr.2, itr.3, itr.4, itr.5, 1.1, 1.2, 8.1, 12.1, 14.1 commercial use of, itr.1, 14.1, 14.2 corporate use of, 14.1, 14.2, 14.3 cross-referencing of deletion of, 14.1, 14.2 digital, itr.1, itr.2, itr.3, 6.1, bm2.1 emotional shading behind extrapolations from, 6.1, 8.1, 14.1 governmental surveillance of, itr.1, 14.1, 14.2, 14.3, nts.1 hacking of, 12.1, 14.1, 14.2, nts.1 of human interaction, itr.1, itr.2 human story behind, itr.1, itr.2 lack of location longitudinal message, 3.1, 6.1 personal pollution of, 11.1n, 12.1 privacy issue and, itr.1, 14.1, 14.2, 14.3, 14.4, nts.1 robust, 5.1, 10.1 selection bias and selling of, 14.1, 14.2 storage of, itr.1, 1.1, 3.1, 14.1 as storytelling terabytes of, itr.1, 2.1 truth of, 13.1, 14.1 unprecedented deluge of, itr.1, 4.1, 14.1, 14.2 use of color with, itr.1, 3.1, bm1.1 visualization of, 1.1n, 14.1 as windows on our lives databases, itr.1, 1.1, 3.1, 8.1 dataclysm.org/relationshiptest, 4.1 DateHookup, itr.1, 6.1, 6.2 dating, 1.1, 3.1, 4.1, 5.1, nts.1 attractiveness and satisfaction in, 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 racism and, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5 see also websites, dating Dazed and Confused (film), 1.1, 12.1 death “and taxes,” death penalty Democratic Party, 5.1, 8.1, 13.1 demographics, itr.1, 1.1, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 10.1 depression, 8.1, 11.1 Description of a Slave Ship Digital OnLine Life and You (DOLLY Project), 12.1, nts.1 disease, 4.1, 14.1, bm1.1 epidemics of, 8.1, 8.2, 14.1, nts.1 “Dittoheads,” dogfooding Don’t Look Back (film) Dowdell, James, 4.1, nts.1 drugs, 8.1, 11.1 side effects of Dylan, Bob, itr.1, itr.2 Earth, itr.1, 2.1, 10.1, 14.1, 14.2, 14.3 age of, 9.1, 9.2 as viewed from space earthquakes, 7.1, 12.1, 12.2, nts.1 eating disorders economics, 1.1, 8.1, 13.1 Economist, 9.1, nts.1 education, 1.1, 5.1, 6.1 college, itr.1, 4.1, 6.1, 10.1, 13.1, 14.1 exchange programs in high school, itr.1, 3.1, 6.1, 9.1, 12.1, 13.1 Egypt, 9.1, 9.2, 13.1 Einstein, Albert, 10.1, 13.1, 13.2, 14.1 elections, US black candidates in, 8.1, 8.2 district gerrymandering and exit polls in of 1952 of 1982 of 2008, 8.1, 8.2, nts.1, nts.2 of 2012 e-mail, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 5.1, 12.1, 14.1 embeddedness, 4.1, 4.2 employment, 6.1, 6.2 search for, 7.1, 7.2 see also jobs English language, 3.1, 3.2, 10.1 Enlightenment era, 4.1, 6.1 Escher, M.
Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics by Francis Fukuyama
Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, cognitive bias, cuban missile crisis, energy security, flex fuel, global pandemic, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John von Neumann, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Norbert Wiener, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, The Wisdom of Crowds, trade route, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Yom Kippur War
He also foresaw most of the personal computing functions now taken for granted—graphing, simulations, modeling, and more. 2990-7 ch06 bonvillian 64 7/23/07 12:10 PM Page 64 william b. bonvillian These insights served Licklider well in the new assignment coming his way. President John F. Kennedy and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara were deeply frustrated by the profound command-and-control problems they encountered during the Cuban missile crisis, particularly the inability to obtain and analyze real-time data and interact with on-the-scene military commanders. DARPA called on Licklider, already at the agency, to tackle the problem. Strongly backed by noted early DARPA directors Jack Ruina and Charles Herzfeld, Licklider set in place a remarkable support network of early information technology researchers at universities and firms that, over time, built the sinews of personal computing and the Internet.
., 108 Conventional wisdom, strategic surprises challenging, 94, 95 Convergence, in information technology innovations, 123–25 Corn, ethanol from, 78–79 Cost-benefit analysis: definition of, 14–15; future in, 15, 16, 18–19; inverse, 16–17; limitations of, 14–19, 171; need for, 4; tolerable windows in, 17–18; uncertainty in, 16–18; value of life in, 15–16 Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia, 43 Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, 83–84 Cuban missile crisis, 64 Cultural barriers, to preparing for catastrophes, 13–14 Cultures, capacity for adaptation in, 154–55 Currency devaluation, in East Asian economic crisis, 43, 44, 47–48 Currency undervaluation, in East Asian economic crisis, 44, 47, 49 Cyber-nations, 156–57 DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), 57–70; creation of, 63; innovation organization at, index 63–67; lessons learned from, 59–60; as model for energy dilemma, 59–60, 67–70; precursors of, 60–63; rise of, 63–65 Darul Islam, 144 Data collection, filters in, 99–100 Day after Tomorrow, The (film), 105, 140 Debt, private, in East Asian economic crisis, 44–45, 46, 48 Debt of Honor (Clancy), 93 Defense, Department of, DARPA’s work with, 64–65, 68 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
Liars and Outliers: How Security Holds Society Together by Bruce Schneier
airport security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Brian Krebs, Broken windows theory, carried interest, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, commoditize, corporate governance, crack epidemic, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, desegregation, don't be evil, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Douglas Hofstadter, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, George Akerlof, hydraulic fracturing, impulse control, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, iterative process, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Julian Assange, longitudinal study, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nate Silver, Network effects, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, patent troll, phenotype, pre–internet, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Coase, security theater, shareholder value, slashdot, statistical model, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, too big to fail, traffic fines, transaction costs, ultimatum game, UNCLOS, union organizing, Vernor Vinge, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey, Y2K, zero-sum game
Hamilton (1981), “The Evolution of Cooperation,” Science, 211:1390–6. Robert Axelrod (1984), The Evolution of Cooperation, Basic Books. open grazing pasture Garrett Hardin (1968), “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Science, 162:1243–8. Chapter 6 predictably irrational Dan Ariely (2008), Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape our Decisions, Harper Perennial. Cuban Missile Crisis Steven J. Brams (24 Jan 2001), “Game Theory and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Plus Magazine. worst in people Morton Deutsch and Robert M. Krauss (1960), “The Effect of Threat upon Interpersonal Bargaining,” Journal of Abnormal & Normal Social Psychology, 61:181–9. better model Rolf Kümmerli, Caroline Colliard, Nicolas Fiechter, Blaise Petitpierre, Flavien Russier, and Laurent Keller (2007), “Human Cooperation in Social Dilemmas: Comparing the Snowdrift Game with the Prisoner's Dilemma,” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 274:2965–70.
(If you don't have a convenient cliff, you can play the game by racing two cars directly at each other; the first person to swerve to avoid the oncoming car is the chicken.) In this game, cooperate–cooperate is the best solution, but cooperate–defect or defect–cooperate is much better than defect–defect. In foreign policy, this is known as brinkmanship, a strategy that almost led to disastrous consequences during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. There have been some fascinating experiments with Chicken that really seem to have brought out the worst in people. (4) For many interactions, the Snowdrift Dilemma is a better model of the real world than the Prisoner's Dilemma. (5) There's also the unfortunately named Battle of the Sexes. He wants to do a stereotypically male thing on Saturday night. She wants to do a stereotypically female thing.
The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and Its Dangerous Legacy by David Hoffman
active measures, anti-communist, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, crony capitalism, cuban missile crisis, failed state, joint-stock company, Kickstarter, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, Robert Hanssen: Double agent, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Silicon Valley, standardized shipping container, Stanislav Petrov, Thomas L Friedman, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, Vladimir Vetrov: Farewell Dossier, zero-sum game
They felt the threat of a single, enormous nuclear strike did not fit the more fragmented and complex competition they faced with the Soviet Union as tensions flared first over Berlin and then over Cuba. When the war plan was revised in the spring and summer of 1962, the new plan gave the president more flexibility and choices in waging a possible nuclear attack, including the ability to hold back forces in reserve, to avoid population centers and industry and to leave out some countries as targets. A key feature of the new plan, put into effect just before the Cuban missile crisis of October 1962, was to aim largely at Soviet weapons, and not at cities and industry, an idea known as counterforce. If one thinks of cocked pistols aimed at each other, counterforce was an effort to shoot the gun out of the hand of the enemy. 6 It seemed to be more humane to aim at missiles rather than cities, but counterforce also raised deeply disturbing questions. Could it make the use of nuclear weapons more tempting, since it implied a limited nuclear strike was possible?
The problem of using scissors was considered serious enough that experts were asked to come up with a new method. "The packet was constructed with a pull-string, on which an operator could tug to immediately open it up," Yarynich recalled. The whole system was slow and cumbersome. Monolit had another, more serious shortcoming. The orders could not be recalled--there was no way to cancel.7 In late October 1962, during the Cuban missile crisis, Yarynich was sent as a communications officer to supervise at a rocket division near Nizhny Tagil, 860 miles east of Moscow in Siberia. At the peak of the confrontation, the crews received an unmistakable signal through the Monolit system. The code word was "BRONTOZAVR." The word was a signal: switch the command system from peacetime to combat alert status. A telegraph typed it out, and Yarynich took the paper tape from one of the young women who served as operators.
The Pioneers were the newest Soviet missile, the best technology, with twenty or thirty years of useful service duty ahead of them--and all those involved were appalled at the idea of sacrificing them. Katayev recalled one particularly emotional meeting in 1985 when the idea of reducing the missile arsenal was debated. There were shouts of protest: "Sabotage!" and "The Fifth Column!" and "Remember Khrushchev!" (for the Cuban missile crisis fiasco). "I tried in vain to defuse the emotions with the help of technical arguments in favor of reducing the number of missiles," Katayev recalled. After the stormy meeting, he remained in the conference room with one of Akhromeyev's deputies. Katayev attempted in earnest to argue his point. "Unbeknownst to everybody," Katayev told the deputy, "the time has arrived when the accumulation of nuclear weapons has outgrown its own level of safety and when it reached the zone where both our own nuclear weapons and those of the Americans have turned from being a means of deterrence into an instrument of increased danger.
Presidents of War by Michael Beschloss
anti-communist, British Empire, California gold rush, Charles Lindbergh, continuation of politics by other means, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, Donald Trump, full employment, Henry Ford's grandson gave labor union leader Walter Reuther a tour of the company’s new, automated factory…, long peace, Monroe Doctrine, New Journalism, Ronald Reagan, traveling salesman, War on Poverty, Works Progress Administration
A 1998 study, commissioned by the National Geographic Society, using a computer model, concluded that if a mine sank the Maine, it would have had to be “perfectly placed,” which would have been “a matter of luck,” and that “a coal fire could have been the first step in the Maine’s destruction.” As time went on, the sinking of the Maine became shorthand for a disaster that would quickly unite Americans in support for a retaliatory military attack on another country, just as the Thornton affair had generated immediate passion for James Polk to start a war against Mexico. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, President John Kennedy and his brother Robert, his Attorney General, considered scenarios that might win public support for the US military to bomb and invade Fidel Castro’s Cuba, after which it could destroy nuclear-capable missiles that had been secretly slipped onto the island by the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. As the President’s hidden tape machine recorded their voices, Robert told his brother that perhaps they should find “some ship” and “you know, sink the Maine again or something.”*14 After holing up at the White House with advisers to study the Sampson findings, McKinley made a final, ill-fated effort to avert a collision with Spain.
By the early 1960s, majorities in both parties were content to let the Asian conflict remain a “forgotten war.”*24 Unwilling to take to heart the mistakes that Truman and other politicians had made over Korea, the American people and those who guided them were thus all the more doomed to rush into the darkness of Vietnam. *1 In October 1962, President Kennedy borrowed some of this language when he addressed the nation during the Cuban Missile Crisis, saying, “The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it,” and “The 1930s taught us a clear lesson: aggressive conduct, if allowed to go unchecked and unchallenged, eventually leads to war.” *2 MacArthur had written, “Our hold upon the southern part of Korea represents a secure base. Our casualties, despite overwhelming odds, have been relatively light. Our strength will continually increase while that of the enemy will relatively decrease.
Before Kennedy’s inauguration, Johnson had asked Senate Democrats to let him keep presiding over their caucus. They rebuffed him, citing the constitutional separation of powers, and Kennedy observed that “the steam really went out of Lyndon.” When Kennedy called on Johnson for comment during councils on foreign policy, the Vice President would sometimes lower his large head and sadly reply that he was insufficiently informed to offer an opinion. Throughout the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, Johnson was a member of President Kennedy’s impromptu advisory panel called ExComm. Attorney General Robert Kennedy observed that when his brother refused the Joint Chiefs’ demand that the missile sites be bombed, followed by an invasion of the island, Johnson was “shaking his head, mad,” although “he never made clear what he would do” instead. After Nikita Khrushchev agreed to pull the missiles out, however, Johnson grudgingly conceded to a friend that the President had played “a damn good hand of poker—I’ll say that for him.”
The Future of Capitalism: Facing the New Anxieties by Paul Collier
"Robert Solow", accounting loophole / creative accounting, Airbnb, assortative mating, bank run, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, Bob Geldof, bonus culture, business cycle, call centre, central bank independence, centre right, Commodity Super-Cycle, computerized trading, corporate governance, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, delayed gratification, deskilling, Donald Trump, eurozone crisis, financial deregulation, full employment, George Akerlof, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, greed is good, income inequality, industrial cluster, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Jean Tirole, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, late capitalism, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, negative equity, New Urbanism, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, principal–agent problem, race to the bottom, rent control, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, sovereign wealth fund, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, too big to fail, trade liberalization, urban planning, web of trust, zero-sum game
In response to the climate of fear created by the Soviet Union, a new club was formed in 1949 – the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The central principle was reciprocal security guarantees among its members. The shared identity was of democracies facing a common threat. There were a few free-riders, but the new obligation was reinforced by an all-too-credible narrative of enlightened self-interest: hang together, or be hanged. Actions matched words, the key moments being the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and the deployment of cruise missiles in the early 1980s. The new reciprocal obligations were successful in keeping the peace while the many internal tensions of communism accumulated. While the Soviet Union was the new threat, within Europe Germany remained the old fear. France had fought three deadly wars against Germany in a mere seventy years. Enlightened self-interest was yet more obvious, but impeding it were the hatreds that the wars had produced.
., 120–21 business zones, 150 ‘Butskellism’, 49* Cadbury, 77 Cameron, David, 205 Canada, 22 capitalism competition, 21, 25, 56, 85, 86 ‘creative destruction’ concept, 21 current failings of, 4–5, 17, 25, 42, 45–6, 48, 201, 212–13 and decline of social trust, 5, 45–6, 48, 55, 59, 69 as essential for prosperity, 4–5, 18, 20, 25, 201 and families, 37 first mover advantage, 148 and greed, 10, 19, 25–7, 28, 31, 42, 58, 69, 70†, 81, 95 and Marx’s alienation, 17–18 and oppositional identities, 56, 74 vested interests, 85, 86, 135–6, 207 see also firms Catalan secession movement, 58 causality, narrative of, 33, 34 CDC Group, 122, 149* Chaucer, Geoffrey, The Canterbury Tales, 129 Chicago, University of, 166 childhood adoption, 110–11 children in ‘care’, 104, 105, 110, 111, 157 children ‘reared by wolves’, 31–2 cognitive development, 105–6, 170, 175–6 fostering, 104, 105, 111 identity acquisition, 32 impact of parental unemployment, 160–61 learning of norms, 33, 35, 107–8 non-cognitive development, 105, 163, 169–70, 171–3, 174, 175–6 ‘rights of the child’ concept, 103–4 in single-parent families, 101, 102, 104–5, 155, 160 trusted mentors, 169–70 see also family China, 118–19, 149, 203 Chira, Susan, 52–3 Chirac, Jacques, 14, 120–21 Christian Democratic parties, 5, 14 Citigroup, 186 Clark, Gregory, The Son Also Rises, 106–8 Clarke, Ken, 206 class divide assortative mating among new elite, 99–100, 154, 188–9 author’s proposed policies, 19–20, 21, 183–4, 187–8, 190, 207–8 and breadth of social networks, 169 and Brexit vote, 5, 196 and cognitive development, 105–6 divergence dynamic, 7, 18, 48, 98–108, 154–61, 170–71, 172–80, 181–90 ‘elite’ attitudes to less-well educated, 4, 5, 12, 16, 53, 59, 60–61, 63 and family life, 20, 98, 99–106, 157–62 and fracture to skill-based identities, 3–5, 51–6, 78 and home ownership, 68, 181, 182–3 need for socially mixed schools, 164–5 and non-cognitive development, 105, 163, 169–70, 171–3, 174, 175–6 and parental hothousing, 100, 101, 105–6 post-school skills development, 170–76 pre-emptive support for stressed families, 20, 155, 157–60, 161–3, 208 and reading in pre-teens, 167–9 and recent populist insurgencies, 5 retirement insecurities, 179–80 and two-parent families, 155–6, 157 unravelling of shared identity, 15, 50, 51–6, 57*, 58–61, 63, 215 see also white working class climate change, 44, 67, 119 Clinton, Hillary, 5, 9, 203–4 coalition government, UK (2010–15), 206 cognitive behavioral therapy, 160 Cold War, 113, 114, 116 end of, 5–6, 115, 203 Colombia, 120 communism, 32, 36–7, 85–6 communitarian values care, 9, 11, 12, 16, 29, 31, 42, 116 fairness, 11, 12, 14, 16, 29, 31, 34, 43, 116, 132–3 hierarchy, 11, 12, 16, 38–9, 43, 99–100 left’s abandonment of, 16, 214* liberty, 11, 12, 16, 42 loyalty, 11, 12, 16, 29, 31, 34, 42–3, 116 new vanguard’s abandonment of, 9, 11–13, 14–15, 16, 17, 49–50, 113, 116–18, 121, 214 post-war settlement, 8–9, 49, 113–16, 122 and reciprocal obligations, 8–9, 11–12, 13, 14, 19, 33, 34, 40–41, 48–9, 201, 212–15 roots in nineteenth-century co-operatives, 8, 13, 14, 201 sanctity, 11, 16, 42–3 Smith and Hume, 21–2† values and reason, 29–30, 43–4 see also belonging, narrative of; obligation, narrative of; reciprocity; social democracy Companies Act, UK, 82 comparative advantage, 20, 120, 192, 194 Confederation of British Industry (CBI), 79 conservatism, 30, 36 Conservative Party, 14, 49, 205, 206 contraception, 98–9, 102 co-operative movement, 8, 13, 14, 201 Corbyn, Jeremy, 202, 204–5 Crosland, Anthony, The Future of Socialism, 17, 18, 19 Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), 114 debutante balls, 188 Denmark, 63, 178, 214* Descartes, Rene, 31 Detroit, 128, 129, 144 Deutsche Bank, 78, 185 development banks, 149–50 Development Corporations Act (1981), 150 Dickens, Charles, Bleak House, 108 digital networks detachment of narratives from place, 38, 61–2 economies of scale, 86–7 global e-utilities, 37, 38, 86–7, 89–90, 91 social media, 27, 61, 87, 173, 207, 215 value-based echo-chambers, 38, 61–2, 64–5, 212, 215 Draghi, Mario, 153 Dundee Project, 161–2 Dutch Antilles, 193 East Asia, 147, 192 eBay, 87 economic man, 10, 19, 25, 26–7, 31, 34–5, 196, 209, 210, 215 economic rent theory, 19, 91, 133–9, 140–44, 186–8, 192, 195, 207 education and collapse of social democracy, 50, 52, 53, 54, 55, 59, 63 and empathy, 12 and European identity, 57* expansion of universities, 99–100, 127 and growth of the middle class, 100 inequality in spending per pupil, 167 mis-ranking of cognitive and non-cognitive training, 174–6 need for socially mixed schools, 164–5 post-school skills development, 170–76 pre-school, 105–6, 163–4 quality of teaching, 165–6 reading in pre-teens, 167–9 and shocks to norms of ethical family, 98, 99–105 symbols of cognitive privilege, 175 teaching methods, 166–7 vocational education, 171–6 zero-sum aspects of success, 189 electoral systems, 206 Emerging Market economies, 129, 130–31 empires, age of, 113 The Enigma of Reason (Mercier and Sperber), 29 enlightened self-interest, 33, 40*, 97–8, 101, 109, 112, 113, 114, 117, 184, 213 Enron, 80 ethnicity, 3, 20, 56, 62, 64, 65, 211 Europe Christian Democrats in, 5, 14 class divides, 3, 4, 5, 125 decline in social trust, 45 and knowledge industries, 192 metropolitan-provincial divides, 3, 4, 125 and migration, 121, 197 and shared identity, 57–8, 64, 66, 125 social democracy in, 8–9, 49, 50 European Central Bank, 153 European Commission, 57 European Investment Bank, 149 European Union (EU, formerly EEC), 66, 67, 114, 115, 116, 117 Brexit vote (June 2016), 5, 125, 131, 196, 215 Eurozone crisis, 153 public policy as predominantly national, 212 universities in, 170 evolutionary theory, 31, 33†, 35–6, 66 externalities, 145–6 Facebook, 87 Fairbairn, Carolyn, 79 fake news, 33–4 family, 19 African norms, 110–11 benefits for single parents, 160 Clark’s ‘family culture’, 107–8 entitled individual vs family obligation, 99–103, 104–6, 108–9, 210 equality within, 39, 154 erosion of mutual obligations, 101–2, 210 identity acquisition, 32 ideologies hostile to, 36–7 impact of unemployment/poverty, 4, 7, 160–61 importance of, 36, 37 and increased longevity, 110, 161 in-kind support for parenting, 161 nuclear dynastic family, 102, 110, 154 one-parent families, 101, 102, 104–5, 155, 160 parental hothousing, 100, 101, 105–6 post-1945 ethical family, 97–8, 99–105, 108, 210 pressures on young parents, 159–60, 161–3 and public policy, 21, 154–5, 157–70, 171–3, 177, 209 and reciprocity, 97–8, 101, 102 shocks to post-1945 norms, 98–105 shrinking of extended family, 101–2, 109–10, 161 social maternalism concept, 154–5, 157–8, 190 two-parent families as preferable, 155–6, 157 see also childhood; marriage Farage, Nigel, 202 fascism, 6, 13*, 47, 113 Federalist papers, 82 feminism, 13, 99 Fillon, François, 204 financial crisis, global (2008–9), 4, 34, 71, 160 no bankers sent to gaol for, 95–6 financial sector, 77–9, 80–81, 83–5 asymmetric information, 88, 185 co-ordination role, 145–6 economies of scale, 87 localized past of, 84, 146 toxic rivalries in, 189 trading in financial assets, 78–9, 84, 184–5, 186, 187 Finland, 63 firms, 19, 21, 69 CEO pay, 77–8, 79, 80–81 competition, 21, 25, 56, 85, 86 control/accountability of, 75–81, 82–5 cultures of good corporate behaviour, 94–5 demutualization in UK, 83, 84 deteriorating behaviour of, 18, 69, 78, 80–81 economies of scale, 17–18, 37, 86–7, 88–91, 126–7, 144–5, 146–7 ethical, 70–71, 172, 209–10 and ethical citizens, 93–4, 95, 96 failure/bankruptcy of, 70, 71, 72, 74, 75–6 flattening of hierarchies in, 39 Friedman’s profit nostrum, 69–70, 71, 76, 78–9, 210 global e-utilities, 37, 38, 86–7, 89–90, 91 ideologies hostile to, 37, 81 low productivity-low cost business model, 173–4 ‘maximising of shareholder value’, 69–70, 76, 79, 82–3 ‘mutuals’, 83 need for bankslaughter crime, 95–6 new network features, 86–7 policing the public interest, 93–4 public dislike of, 69, 95–6 public interest representation on boards, 92–3 regulation of, 87–90, 174 reward linked to short-term performance, 77, 78–81 sense of purpose, 39–40, 41, 70–75, 80–81, 93–4, 96 shareholder control of, 76–7, 79, 80, 82–3 societal role of, 81–2, 92–3, 96, 209–10 utility services, 86, 89, 90 worker interests on boards, 83, 84–5 Fisher, Stephen, 196* Five Star, 125 Ford, 70, 71 France, 7, 63, 67, 114 écoles maternelles in, 164 labour market in, 176, 189 pensions policy, 180 presidential election (2017), 5, 9, 204 universities in, 170 working week reduced in, 189 Frederiksen, Mette, 214* Friedman, Milton, 15, 69–70, 71, 76 The Full Monty (film), 7, 129 G20 group, 118 G7 group, 118 G8 group, 194 Ganesh, Janan, 125 Geldof, Bob, 169 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), 114, 115, 116–17 General Motors (GM), 72, 73–4, 75, 86, 172 geographic divide, 3, 16, 18, 19, 215 author’s proposed policies, 19, 207 and Brexit vote, 125, 196 broken cities, 4, 7, 19, 48, 125, 129–30, 147–9 business zones, 150 co-ordination problem over new clusters, 145–50, 207 decline of provincial cities, 4, 7, 19, 48, 125, 129–30, 131, 144–5 economic forces driving, 126–30 and education spending, 167 first mover disadvantage, 148–9 ideological responses, 130–32 investment promotion agencies, 150–51 and local universities, 151–2 and metropolitan disdain, 125 need for political commitment, 153 as recent and reversible, 152–3 regenerating provincial cities, 19, 142, 144–50 and spending per school pupil, 167 widening of since 1980, 125 George, Henry, 133–6, 141 Germany 2017 election, 5, 205 local banks in, 146 Nazi era, 57 and oppositional identities, 56–7 oversight of firms in, 76 post-war industrial relations policy, 94–5 and post-war settlement, 114 re-emergence of far right, 5 rights of refugees in, 14 ‘social market economy’, 49 TVET in, 171–2, 174, 175 vereine (civil society groups), 181 worker interests on boards, 84–5 global divide, 7–8, 20, 59–60, 191–8, 208 globalization, 4, 18, 20, 126–7, 128, 129, 130–31, 191–8 Goldman Sachs, 70†, 83–4, 94 Google, 87 Great Depression (1930s), 114 Green, Sir Philip, 80 Grillo, Beppe, 202 ‘Grimm and Co’, Rotherham, 168–9 Gunning, Jan Willem, 165 Haidt, Jonathan, 11–12, 14, 16, 28, 29, 132–3 Haiti, 208 Halifax Building Society, 8, 84 Hamon, Benoît, 9, 204 Harvard-MIT, 7, 152 Hershey, 77 HIV sufferers in poor countries, 120–21 Hofer, Norbert, 202 Hollande, Francois, 9, 204 Hoover, 148 housing market, 181–4 buy-to-let, 182, 183, 184 and lawyers, 187 mortgages, 84, 176, 182, 183–4 proposed stock transfer from landlords to tenants, 184 Hume, David, 14, 21, 21–2†, 29 Huxley, Aldous, Brave New World (1932), 5 Iceland, 63 Identity Economics, 50–56, 65–7 ideologies based on hatred of ‘other’ part of society, 43, 56, 213, 214 ‘end of history’ triumphalism, 6, 43–4 hostile to families, 36–7 hostile to firms, 37, 81 hostile to the state, 37–8 and housing policy, 183 and migration, 198 New Right, 14–15, 26, 81, 129 norms of care and equality, 116, 132–3 polarization of politics, 38, 63, 202–5 pragmatic eschewal of, 17, 18, 21, 22, 29–30 and principle of reason, 9, 13, 14, 15, 21, 43 Rawlsian vanguard, 13–14, 30, 49–50, 53, 67, 112, 113, 201, 202, 203, 214 return of left-right confrontation, 5, 6, 81, 202–5 and rights, 12–14, 44, 112 seduction of, 6 and twentieth century’s catastrophes, 5–6, 22 views on an ethical world, 112 see also Marxism; rights ideology; Utilitarianism IFC (International Finance Corporation), 122 Imperial Chemical Industries (ICI), 69–70, 75 India, 118–19 individualism entitled individual vs family obligation, 99–103, 104–6, 108–9, 210 fulfilment through personal achievement, 28, 99, 100–101, 102, 103, 108–9, 213 New Right embrace of, 14–15, 53, 81, 214–15 as rampant in recent decades, 19, 214–15 reciprocity contrasted with, 44–5 and withering of spatial community, 61–2 industrial revolution, 8, 126 inequality and assortative mating among new elite, 99–100, 154, 188–9 and divergence dynamic, 7, 18, 48, 98–108, 154–61, 170–71, 172–80, 181–90 and financial sector, 185 and geographic divide, 3, 7–8, 20, 125 global divide, 7–8, 20, 59–60, 191–8, 208 persistence of, 106–8 Rawls’ disadvantaged groups, 3–4, 13–14, 16, 50, 53, 121, 203–4, 214 and revolt against social democracy, 15–16 rising levels of, 3–5, 106, 125, 181, 190 and Utilitarian calculus, 132 innovation, 185–6, 208 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 114, 117 international relations achievement of post-WW2 leaders, 113–16, 122 building of shared identity, 114–16 core concepts of ethical world, 112, 113–14 erosion of ethical world, 116–18 expansion of post-war ‘clubs’, 116–18, 210 new, multipurpose club needed, 118–19, 122 and patriotism narrative, 67 situation in 1945, 112–13, 122 investment promotion agencies, 150–51 Irish Investment Authority, 151 Islamist terrorism, 42, 212, 213 Italy, 4, 58, 160 James, William, 29* Janesville (US study), 178 Japan, 72–3, 94, 101, 149, 192 John Lewis Partnership, 83, 172 Johnson, Robert Wood, 39–40, 72 Johnson & Johnson, 39–40, 41, 72, 74*, 79 Jolie, Angelina, 112 JP Morgan, 71* Juppé, Alain, 204 Kagame, Paul, 22 Kay, John, 82*, 84, 211 Keynes, John Maynard, 115 General Theory (1936), 47 kindergartens, 163 Knausgård, Karl Ove, 173 knowledge revolution, 126, 127–8 Kranton, Rachel, 35, 50–51 Krueger, Anne, 141 Krugman, Paul, 47 labour market flexicurity concept, 178 function of, 176–7 and globalization, 192, 194–6 and immigration, 194, 195, 196 investment in skills, 176–7 job security, 176, 177 and low productivity-low cost business model, 173–4 minimum wage strategies, 147, 174, 176, 180 need for reductions in working hours, 189 need for renewed purpose in work, 190 regulation of, 174, 189 and robotics revolution, 178–9 role of state, 177–8, 189 see also unemployment Labour Party, 49, 206 Marxist take-over of, 9, 204–5 language, 31, 32, 33, 39–40, 54, 57 Larkin, Philip, 99, 156 lawyers, 13–14, 45 Buiter’s three types, 186 and shell companies, 193, 194 surfeit of, 186–7 taxation of private litigation proposal, 187–8 Le Pen, Marine, 5, 63, 125, 202, 204 leadership and belief systems, 41–2, 43, 95 building of shared identity, 39–42, 49, 68, 114–16 changing role of, 39 and flattening of hierarchies, 39 and ISIS, 42 political achievements in post-war period, 113–16, 122 and pragmatist philosophy, 22 and shared purpose in firms, 39–40, 41, 71–5 strategic use of morality, 39–40, 41 transformation of power into authority, 39, 41–2, 57 League of Nations, 116 Lee Kwan Yew, 22, 147 Lehman Brothers, 71*, 76 liberalism, 30 libertarianism, 12–13, 15 New Right failures, 16, 21 Silicon Valley, 37–8 lobbying, 85, 141 local government, 182, 183 London, 3, 125, 127–8, 165–6, 193 impact of Brexit on, 131, 196 migration to, 195–6 Macron, Emmanuel, 67, 204 Manchester terror attack (2017), 212, 213 market economy, 19, 20, 21, 25, 48 and collapse of clusters, 129–30, 144–5 failure over pensions, 180 failure over skill-formation, 173–4 mutual benefit from exchange, 28 market fundamentalists, 147, 150 marriage assortative mating, 35, 99–100, 154, 188–9 cohabitation prior to, 99, 100 as ‘commitment technology’, 109, 155–6 divorce rates, 98, 99, 100–101, 102, 103 and female oppression, 156 religious associations, 109, 156 and rent-seeking, 141 ‘shotgun weddings’, 103 and unemployment, 103 Marxism, 13*, 26, 30, 43, 47, 113, 203, 214 alienation concept, 17–18 and the family, 36–7 late capitalism concept, 6 takeover of Labour Party, 9, 204–5 and ‘useful idiots’, 205* view of the state, 37 Maxwell, Robert, 80 May, Theresa, 205 Mayer, Colin, 18, 70 media celebrities, 6, 112, 204 Mélenchon, Jean-Luc, 5, 202, 204 mental health, 157, 158–9, 162 Mercier, Hugo, 29 meritocratic elites, 3–4, 5, 12–17, 20 Rawlsian vanguard, 13–14, 30, 49–50, 53, 67, 112, 113, 201, 202, 203, 214 Utilitarian vanguard, 9–10, 11–13, 15–16, 18, 52, 53, 59, 66–7, 209 see also Utilitarianism WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrial, Rich and Developed), 3–4, 12, 14, 16, 17, 20, 116, 121, 133, 214* and white working class, 5, 16 Merkel, Angela, 14, 205 metropolitan areas, 3, 4, 7, 16, 19, 48, 125 co-ordination problem over new clusters, 145–50, 207 economies of agglomeration, 18, 19, 129, 131, 133–44, 195, 196, 207 gains from public goods, 134–5, 138–9 migration to, 195–6 political responses to dominance of, 131–2 scale and specialization in, 126–8, 130, 144–5 and taxation, 131, 132–43, 187, 207 Middle East, 192 Middleton, Kate, 188–9 migration, 121, 194–8, 203 as driven by absolute advantage, 20, 194–5, 208–9 and housing market, 182, 183 Mill, John Stuart, 9–10 minimum wage strategies, 147, 174, 176, 180 Mitchell, Andrew, 188 Mitchell, Edson, 78 modernist architecture, 12 Monarch Airlines, 75 monopolies, natural, 86–7, 88 and asymmetric information, 88, 90 auctioning of rights, 88–9 taxation of, 91–2 utility services, 86, 89, 90 ‘moral hazard’, 179 morality and ethics deriving from values not reason, 27, 28–9, 42–3 and economic man, 10, 19, 25, 26–7, 31, 34–5 and empathy, 12, 27 evolution of ethical norms, 35–6 Haidt’s fundamental values, 11–12, 14, 16, 29, 42–3, 132–3 and market economy, 21, 25, 28, 48 and modern capitalism, 25–6 and new elites, 3–4, 20–21 Adam Smith’s theories, 26–8 use for strategic purposes, 39–40, 41 and Utilitarianism, 9–10, 11, 14, 16, 55, 66–7, 209, 214 motivated reasoning, 28–9, 36, 86, 144, 150, 167 Museveni, President, 121 narratives and childhood mentors, 169–70 and consistency, 41, 67, 81, 96 conveyed by language, 31, 33, 57 detachment from place by e-networks, 38, 61–2 and heyday of social democracy, 49 and identity formation, 32 mis-ranking of cognitive and non-cognitive training, 174–6 moral norms generated from, 33, 97–8 and purposive action, 33–4, 40–41, 42, 68 and schools, 165 of shared identity, 53–6, 81 use of by leaders, 39–42, 43, 49, 80–81 see also belonging, narrative of; obligation, narrative of; purposive action National Health Service (NHS), 49, 159 national identity and citizens-of-the-world agenda, 59–61, 63, 65 contempt of the educated for, 53, 59, 60–61, 63 and distinctive common culture, 37†, 63 established in childhood, 32 esteem from, 51–3 fracture to skill-based identities, 3–5, 51–6, 78 legacy of Second World War, 15, 16 methods of rebuilding, 64, 65–8, 211–15 and new nationalists, 62–3, 67, 203, 204, 205 patriotism narrative, 21, 63, 67, 215 place-based identity, 51–6, 65–8, 211–14, 215 and polarization of society, 54–5 and secession movements, 58 unravelling of shared identity, 15, 50, 51–6, 57*, 58–61, 63, 215 and value identity, 64–5 National Review, 16 nationalism, 34 based on ethnicity or religion, 62–3 capture of national identity notion by, 62, 67, 215 and narratives of hatred, 56, 57, 58–9 and oppositional identities, 56–7, 58–9, 62–3, 68, 215 traditional form of, 62 natural rights concept, 12, 13 Nestlé, 70, 71 Netherlands, 206 networked groups as arena for exchanging obligations, 28 and ‘common knowledge’, 32–3, 34, 54, 55, 66, 212 decline of civil society networks/ groups, 180–81 and early man, 31 evolution of ethical norms, 35–6 exclusion of disruptive narratives, 34 families as, 97–8 leadership’s use of narratives, 39–42, 49 narratives detached from place, 38, 61–2 value-based echo-chambers, 38, 61–2, 64–5, 212, 215 see also family; firms Neustadt, Richard, 39* New York City, 5, 125, 128, 143–4, 193 NGOs, 71, 118, 157–8 ‘niche construction’, 35*, 36* Nigeria, 58 Noble, Diana, 149* Norman, Jesse, 21–2† North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 114, 115, 116, 117 North Korea, 85 Northern League, Italy, 58 Norway, 63, 206, 208–9 Nozick, Robert, 14–15 obligation, narrative of, 11, 12–13, 16, 19, 29, 33 and collapse of social democracy, 53–6, 210 entitled individual vs family obligation, 99–103, 104–6, 108–9, 210 in ethical world, 112, 113–22 and expansion of post-war ‘clubs’, 117–18, 210 fairness and loyalty instilled by, 34 heyday of the ethical state, 48–9, 68, 196–7 and immigration, 196–7 and leadership, 39, 40–41, 49 ‘oughts’ and ‘wants’, 27, 28, 33, 43 and secession movements, 58 and Adam Smith, 27, 28 see also reciprocity; rescue, duty of oil industry, 192 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 114–15, 125 Orwell, George, Nineteen Eighty-Four (1949), 5 Oxford university, 7, 70, 100 Paris, 5, 7, 125, 128, 174, 179 patriotism, 21, 63, 67, 215 Pause (NGO), 157–8 pension funds, 76–7, 79–81, 179–80, 185 Pew Research Center, 169 Pinker, Steven, 12* Plato, The Republic, 9, 11, 12, 15, 43 Playboy magazine, 99 political power and holders of economic rent, 135–6, 144 leadership selection systems in UK, 204–5, 206 minimum age for voting, 203 need to restore the centre, 205–7 polarization within polities, 38, 63, 202–5 polities as spatial, 38, 61–2, 65, 68, 211–13 and shared identity, 8, 57–61, 65, 114–16, 211–15 transformation into authority, 41–2, 57–8 trust in government, 4, 5, 48, 59, 210, 211–12 populism, political, 6, 22, 43, 58–9, 202 and geographic divide, 130–31 headless-heart, 30, 60, 112, 119, 121, 122 media celebrities, 6, 112, 204 pragmatism as opposed to, 30 and US presidential election (2016), 5, 203–4 pragmatist philosophy, 6, 9, 19, 21, 21–2†, 46, 201 author’s proposed policies, 19–20, 21, 207–15 limitations of, 30 and Macron in France, 204 and migration, 198 and post-war settlement, 113, 116, 122 and social democracy, 18, 201–2 successful leaders, 22 and taxation, 132, 207 and teaching methods, 166–7 values and reason, 29–30, 43–4 proportional representation, 206 protectionism, 113, 114, 130–31 psychology, social, 16, 54 co-ordination problems, 32–3 esteem’s trumping of money, 174 Haidt’s fundamental values, 11–12, 14, 16, 29, 42–3, 132–3 narratives, 31, 32, 33–4, 38, 39–42, 49, 53–6 norms, 33, 35–6, 39, 42–3, 44, 97–8, 107–8 ‘oughts’ and ‘wants’, 27, 28, 33, 43 personal achievement vs family obligation, 99–103, 104–6, 108–9, 210 ‘theory of mind’, 27, 55 Public Choice Theory, 15–16 public goods, 134–5, 138–9, 186, 202, 213 public ownership, 90 Puigdemont, Carles, 202 purposive action, 18, 21, 25, 26, 34, 40*, 53–4, 68, 112, 211–13 autonomy and responsibility, 38–9 and belonging narrative, 68, 98, 114, 211, 212, 213 in Bhutan, 37† decline in ethical purpose across society, 48 and heyday of social democracy, 47, 49, 114 and narratives, 33–4, 40–41, 42, 68 in workplace, 190 Putnam, Robert, 45–6, 106 Bowling Alone, 181 ‘quality circles’, 72–3 Rajan, Raghuram, 178 Rand, Ayn, 32 rational social woman, 31, 50–51, 196 Rawls, John, 13–14 Reagan, Ronald, 15, 26 Reback, Gary, 90 reciprocity, 9, 19, 31, 212–15 and belonging, 25, 40–41, 49, 53–6, 67, 68, 98, 181, 182, 210–11, 212–13 and collapse of social democracy, 11, 14, 53–6, 58–61, 201, 210 and corporate behaviour, 95 in ethical world, 112, 113–15, 116 and expansion of post-war ‘clubs’, 117–18, 210 fairness and loyalty as supporting, 29, 31, 34 and the family, 97–8, 101, 102 and geographic divide, 125 heyday of the ethical state, 48–9, 68, 96, 196–7, 201 and ISIS, 42 Macron’s patriotism narrative, 67 nineteenth-century co-operatives, 8 rights matched to obligations, 44–5 and three types of narrative, 33, 34, 40–41 transformation of power into authority, 39, 41–2, 57–8 Refuge (Betts and Collier), 27 refugees, 14, 27, 115, 119–20, 213 regulation, 87–90 and globalization, 193–4 of labour market, 174 religion, 56–7, 62–3, 109, 156 religious fundamentalism, 6, 30, 36–7, 212, 213, 215 rent-seeking concept, 140–41, 150, 186, 187–8, 195 rescue, duty of, 40, 54, 119–21, 210, 213 as instrument for ethical imperialism, 117–18, 210 as not matched by rights, 44, 45, 117 and post-war settlement, 113, 115–16 restoring and augmenting autonomy, 121–2 and stressed young families, 163 term defined, 27, 112 value of care as underpinning, 29 retirement pensions, 179–80 rights ideology and corresponding obligations, 44–5 emergence in 1970s, 12–14 human rights lobby, 112, 118, 118* individualism as rampant in recent decades, 19, 214–15 and lawyers, 13–14, 45 Libertarian use of, 12–13, 14–15 natural rights concept, 12, 13 and New Right, 12–13, 14–15, 53 Rawls’ disadvantaged groups, 3–4, 13–14, 16, 50, 53, 112, 121, 203–4, 214 ‘rights of the child’ concept, 103–4 and Utilitarian atate, 12–14 see also individualism Romania, communist, 32, 36 Rotherham, ‘Grimm and Co’, 168–9 rule of law, 138–9, 186 Rwanda, 22 Salmond, Alex, 202 Sandel, Michael, 105 Sanders, Bernie, 9, 64, 202, 203 Sarkozy, Nicolas, 204 Schultz, Martin, 14 Schumpeter, Joseph, 21* Scotland, 58 Seligman, Martin, 108–9 sexual behaviour birth-control pill, 98–9, 102 and class divide, 99, 102, 155–6 concept of sin, 156 and HIV, 121 and stigma, 156–8 sexual orientation, 3, 45 Sheffield, 7, 8, 126, 128–9, 131, 151, 168, 192 shell companies, 193, 194 Shiller, Robert, 34 Sidgwick, Henry, 55 Signalling, Theory of, 41, 43, 53, 63, 95 Silicon Valley, 37–8, 62, 145, 152, 164 Singapore, 22, 147 Slovenia, 58 Smith, Adam, 14, 21, 21–2†, 174 and mutual benefit from exchange, 28 and pursuit of self- interest, 26–7, 40 on reason, 29 The Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759), 27, 28, 174 Wealth of Nations (1776), 26, 28, 174 Smith, Vernon, 28 social democracy ‘Butskellism’, 49* collapse of, 9, 11, 50, 51–6, 116–18, 201–2, 210 communitarian roots, 8–9, 11, 13, 14, 17, 48–9, 201 and group identities, 3–4, 13–14, 51–6 heyday of, 8–9, 15, 17, 47, 48–9, 68, 96, 196–7, 201, 210 and housing, 181–2 influence of Utilitarianism, 9, 10, 14, 16, 18, 49–50, 201, 203, 214 Libertarian challenge, 12–13, 14–15 New Right abandonment of, 14–15, 16, 26, 53 and Public Choice Theory, 15–16 replaced by social paternalism, 11–13, 49–50, 209–10 and rights ideology, 12–14 and secession movements, 58 shared identity harnessed by, 15, 196–7 unravelling of shared identity, 15, 50, 51–6, 57*, 58–61, 63, 215 and Utilitarianism, 214 social maternalism concept, 21, 154–5, 190 free pre-school education, 163–4 mentoring for children, 169–70, 208 support for stressed families, 20, 155, 157–60, 161–3, 208 social media, 27, 61, 87, 173, 207, 215 social paternalism backlash against, 11–13, 15–16 as cavalier about globalization, 20 and child-rearing/family, 105, 110, 154–5, 157, 158, 159, 160, 190, 209 replaces social democracy, 11–13, 49–50, 209–10 ‘rights of the child’ concept, 103–4 and Utilitarian vanguard, 9–10, 11–13, 15–16, 18, 66–7, 209 social services, 159 scrutiny role, 162 Solow, Robert, 141 Soros, George, 15* South Africa, 85 South Asia, 192 South Korea, 129, 130–31 South Sudan, 192 Soviet Union, 114, 115, 116, 203 Spain, 58, 160 specialization, 17–18, 36, 126–8, 130, 144–5, 192 Spence, Michael, 41, 53, 95 Sperber, Dan, 29 St Andrews University, 189 Stanford University, 145, 152 Starbucks, 193 the state, 19 ethical capacities of, 11, 20–21, 48–9 failures in 1930s, 47, 48 ideologies hostile to, 37–8 and pre-school education, 163–4 and prosperity, 37 public policy and job shocks, 177–8 public policy on the family, 21, 154–5, 157–70, 171–3, 177, 209 public-sector and co-ordination problem, 147–8 social maternalism policies, 21, 157, 190 Utilitarian takeover of public policy, 10–12, 13–14, 15–17, 18, 49–50, 113, 201 Stiglitz, Joseph, 56 Stoke-on-Trent, 129 Stonehenge, 64 Sudan, 8 Summers, Larry, 187 Sure Start programme, 164 Sutton, John, 151* Sweden, 178 Switzerland, 175, 206 Tanzania, 193 taxation and corporate globalization, 193, 194 of economic rents, 91–2, 187–8 ethics and efficiency, 132–43 on financial transactions, 187 generational differences in attitudes, 59 Henry George’s Theorem, 133–6, 141 heyday of the ethical state, 49 issues of desert, 132–3, 134–9 and the metropolis, 131, 132–43, 187, 207 and migration, 197 of natural monopolies, 91–2 ‘optimal’, 10 of private litigation in courts, 187–8 and reciprocity, 54, 55, 59 redesign of needed, 19 redistributive, 10, 11, 14, 49, 54, 55, 60, 197 of rents of agglomeration, 19, 132–44, 207 social maternalism policies, 21, 157 substantial decline in top rates, 55 tax havens, 62 Venables-Collier theory, 136–9 Teach First programme, 165–6 technical vocational education and training (TVET), 171–6 technological change, 4 robotics revolution, 178–9 and withering of spatial community, 61–2 see also digital networks telomeres, 155–6 Tepperman, Jonathan, The Fix, 22 Thatcher, Margaret, 15, 26 Thirty Years War, 56–7 Tirole, Jean, 177, 178 Toyota, 72–3, 74, 94, 172 trade unions, 173, 174, 176 Troubled Families Programme (TFP), 162 Trudeau, Pierre, 22 Trump, Donald, 5, 9, 63, 64, 86, 125, 136, 202, 204, 206, 215 Uber, 87 unemployment in 1930s, 47 and collapse of industry, 7, 103, 129, 192 impact on children, 160–61 older workers, 4, 103, 213 retraining schemes, 178 in USA, 160 young people, 4 Unilever, 70, 71 United Kingdom collapse of heavy industry, 7, 103, 129, 192 extreme politics in, 5 and falling life expectancy, 4 financial sector, 80, 83, 84–5 IMF bail-out (1976), 115 local banks in past, 146 northern England, 3, 7, 8, 84, 126, 128–9, 131, 151, 168, 192 shareholder control of firms, 76–7, 79, 80, 82–3 statistics on firms in, 37 universities in, 170, 172, 175* vocational education in, 172, 175† widening of geographic divide, 125 United Nations, 65, 112 ‘Club of 77’, 116 Security Council, 116 UNHCR, 115 United States breakdown of ethical family, 104–5 broken cities in, 129, 130 extreme politics in, 5, 63 and falling life expectancy, 4 financial sector, 83–4, 186 and global e-utilities, 89–90 growth in inequality since 1980, 125 heyday of the ethical state, 49 and knowledge industries, 192 labour market in, 176, 178 local banks in past, 146 oversight of firms in, 76 pessimism in, 5, 45–6 presidential election (2016), 5, 9, 203–4 Public Interest Companies, 93 public policy as predominantly national, 212 ‘rights of the child’ concept in, 103–4 Roosevelt’s New Deal, 47 statistics on firms in, 37 taxation in, 143–4, 144* unemployment in, 160 universities in, 170, 172, 173 weakening of NATO commitment, 117 universities in broken cities, 151–2 in EU countries, 170 expansion of, 99–100, 127 knowledge clusters at, 127, 151–2 low quality vocational courses, 172–3 in UK, 170, 172, 175* in US, 170, 172, 173 urban planning, post-war, 11–12 Utilitarianism, 19, 30, 49–50, 55, 108, 112, 121, 210–11 backlash against, 11–13, 201, 202 belonging as absent from discourse, 16, 59, 66–7, 210–11 care as key value, 12 and consumption, 10, 11, 16, 19–20, 209 equality as key value, 12, 13, 14, 15, 116, 132–3, 214 incorporated into economics, 10–11, 13–14, 16 influence on social democrats, 9, 10, 14, 16, 18, 49–50, 201, 203, 214 origins of, 9–10 paternalistic guardians, 9–10, 11–13, 66–7, 210 takeover of public policy, 10–12, 13–14, 15–17, 18, 49–50, 113, 201 and taxation, 10, 132*, 133 vanguard’s switch of identity salience, 52, 53, 59 Valls, Manuel, 204 Venables, Tony, 18, 136, 191* Venezuela, 120, 214 vested interests, 85–6, 135–6, 165, 166, 207 Volkswagen, 74–5 Walmart, 87 Warsi, Baroness Sayeeda, 65 Wedgwood, Josiah, 129 welfare state, 9, 48–9 unlinked from contributions, 14 well-being and happiness belonging and esteem, 16, 25, 27, 29, 31–3, 34, 42, 51–6, 97–8, 174 entitled individual vs family obligation, 108–9 and financial success, 26, 94 ‘ladder of life’, 25* poverty in Africa, 37 reciprocity as decisive for, 31 Westminster, Duke of, 136 white working class ‘elite’ attitudes to, 4, 5, 16 falling life expectancy, 4, 16 pessimism of, 5 William, Prince, 188–9 Williams, Bernard, 55* Wittgenstein, 62, 63 Wolf, Alison, 52–3, 155 World Bank, 115, 117, 118, 118*, 122 World Food Programme, 115 World Health Organization, 115 World Trade Organization (WTO), 116–17 Yugoslavia, 58 Zingales, Luigi, 178 Zuma, Jacob, 85 Copyright THE FUTURE OF CAPITALISM.
The Ages of Globalization by Jeffrey D. Sachs
Admiral Zheng, British Empire, Cape to Cairo, colonial rule, Columbian Exchange, Commentariolus, coronavirus, COVID-19, Covid-19, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, domestication of the camel, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, endogenous growth, European colonialism, global supply chain, greed is good, income per capita, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, Louis Pasteur, low skilled workers, mass immigration, Nikolai Kondratiev, out of africa, packet switching, Pax Mongolica, precision agriculture, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, South China Sea, spinning jenny, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, Turing machine, Turing test, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons
The conundrum is how easily we nonetheless fall prey to our small differences, which can be stirred into virulent hatreds by demagogic leaders in their quest for power. I have mentioned many times one modern leader whose leadership I admire and whose words continue to inspire. President Kennedy lived through the closest brush with global nuclear annihilation that we have ever experienced: the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. In the wake of that horrifically close call, Kennedy urged peace between the United States and the Soviet Union and achieved a first step toward that peace by negotiating the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1963. In making the case for peace rather than war, Kennedy explained our common human interests in words that still guide us today in managing our interdependent world: So, let us not be blind to our differences—but let us also direct attention to our common interests and to the means by which those differences can be resolved.
See carbon dioxide coal, 16, 18, 51, 131; Britain’s access to, 137, 143; geological deposits of, 145; in industrialization, 27–28, 145 coastal regions, 25–27 Code of Hammurabi, 66 coffee, 119–20 cold zones, 24 colonial era, 163–64 Columbian exchange, 100–103, 101 Columbus, Christopher, 11, 99, 99, 108 Commentariolus (Copernicus), 105 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 27, 112, 113 communications, 15 competitive exclusion, 37 computers, 4–5, 170–71, 175 Conference of Berlin (1885), 152 conflict risks, 192–93 Confucianism, 69, 71–72, 90 consensus, lack of, 211 consonantal writing system, 73 Constantine XI (Byzantine emperor), 98 Constantinople, fall of, 104–5 consumerism, in Europe, 119 Copernicus, Nicolaus, 105, 135 Copper age, 3, 61 Corded Ware culture, 63 cotton, 120–21 countries: illiteracy of, 164, 164–65; life expectancy of, 164, 164–65; per capita GDP of, 142; population and global output of, 209, 209–10 crops, 50, 101, 101 Crosby, Alfred, 100 Cuban Missile Crisis, 213 cultural acceleration, 37–38 Cultural Revolution, 148 cuneiform, 47–48, 66 Cw temperate monsoon climate, 23 Cyrus the Great, 73 da Gama, Vasco, 11, 98–99, 100 data, 4, 169, 172, 219–20, 226n7 da Vinci, Leonardo, 135 Declaration of Independence, 131 Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (Gibbon), 131 decolonization, 163–67 Deep Blue (IBM computer), 175 demographic changes, 2 Deng Xiaoping, 180 Denisovans, 3, 35–37 Department of Defense, U.S., 171 developing countries, 178, 179 Diamond, Jared, 46 Dias, Bartolomou, 98 Digital Age, 2, 4–5, 196; economic growth in, 193–94; global interactions in, 11 digital revolution, 166, 168, 170–77, 186 digital technologies, 181 Diocletian (Roman emperor), 77–80 directed technical change, 199 diseases: of Africa, 152; from Europe, 102; of livestock, 101–2; smallpox, 102; tropical vector-borne, 49, 117; trypanosomiasis, 50 divergence, great global, 143–46, 144 dog domestication, 54–55 domestication, animal, 18–19, 46, 54–59 donkeys, 47, 55, 57–59, 67 Drake, Francis, 109, 116 dromedary camels, 55 droughts, 190, 191 dryland empires, 51 dry regions, 22, 24 Dutch East India Company, 108–9, 120 Dylan, Bob, 30 Earth, 103, 138 East Asia, 165 East India Company, 108–10, 116, 120, 148 East Indies, 108 ecological crisis, 170 ecological zones, 45–46 Economic Consequences of the Peace, The (Keynes), 155–56, 158 economic development: Britain and U.S., 154, 154; in China, 180; extreme poverty ended by, 198–99; primary energy reserves in, 27–28; riverine cities in, 47–48; from technologies, 21 economic growth, 10, 138; in Digital Age, 193–94; living standard through, 196–97; sustainable, 187 economics, 10, 159, 184 egalitarianism, 39–40 Egypt, 47, 60, 73; Britain controlling, 154; earliest kingdoms of, 66 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 199 Eldorado city, 117 electricity, 141 Elizabeth (queen of England), 110, 116 Emancipation Decree of 1861, 121 Empire of Cotton (Beckert), 120 empires: Achaemenid, 74–75, 77; Africa divided by European, 153; Akkadian, 66; of Alexander the Great, 76; British, 112, 154–55; Byzantine, 85–88, 86; of Classical Age, 69; climate zones distribution of, 83–84, 84; dryland, 51; of Eurasia, 82, 82–83; globalization with competing, 28; greed in building, 114–15; Habsburg, 157; Han, 80–83; Hellenistic, 76; land-based, 3–4, 73–76; lucky latitudes and land, 73–74; Maratha, 148; Mongol, 65, 86, 91–93, 92; Mughal, 111, 148; multiethnic multireligious, 11; Neo-Assyrian, 66, 73–74, 74; Ottoman, 89, 111, 158; Parthian, 82–83; Portugal and, 110, 110–11; Roman, 77–80, 82–83, 85–88, 156; Romanov, 158; Russian, 27, 112–14; Safavid, 111; Seleucid, 77; temperate zone, 51; Timurid, 93, 93–94; transoceanic, 4; Umayyad, 87, 87.
The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation by Jon Gertner
Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, Black Swan, business climate, Claude Shannon: information theory, Clayton Christensen, complexity theory, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, Edward Thorp, horn antenna, Hush-A-Phone, information retrieval, invention of the telephone, James Watt: steam engine, Karl Jansky, knowledge economy, Leonard Kleinrock, Metcalfe’s law, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Picturephone, Richard Feynman, Robert Metcalfe, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, Telecommunications Act of 1996, traveling salesman, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, William Shockley: the traitorous eight
“Kennedy and [his science advisor Jerome] Wiesner and I got down on our hands and knees and we got under the desk and found somebody had put it in a drawer,” Baker later remarked. “And then we explained the whole technology.” Kennedy often invited Baker into his private quarters for discussions; he likewise called him at his Bell Labs office, at least once trying to find out if Jim Fisk might take a job in the administration.38 During the Cuban Missile Crisis—a crisis brought on by the interpretation of information, in this case aerial photographs—Baker also became a fixture in the cabinet room.39 In the early 1960s, Baker’s closest associate in Washington was Clark Clifford, an advisor to Kennedy and the chairman of the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. At the PFIAB, Baker and Edwin Land, the inventor of the Polaroid camera, drove the agenda.
The quote I’ve included reflects some of the inserted text that Baker had noted in the margins of his draft. AT&T archives. 36 Bamford, The Puzzle Palace, pp. 427–29. 37 New Scientist, January 30, 1975, p. 274. 38 Baker’s handwritten notes. Baker Collection, Princeton University. 39 William O. Baker, National Reconnaissance Office Oral History. “I was sitting around the Cabinet room during the Cuban missile crisis of October 1962,” Baker would recall, and ultimately served as a “legman,” going back and forth between the White House and State Department, relaying information about the Russian fleets steaming toward Cuba with their cargo. 40 Clark Clifford, “Serving the President,” New Yorker, May 6, 13, 20, 1991. According to both Baker and Clifford, the two men were eating lunch together in the White House mess when they were informed that Kennedy had been shot in Dallas. 41 Louis Tordella, letter to William O.
., 4–5, 177, 178, 179, 197, 203 Clifford, Clark, 248, 328 codes, 124–25, 126 Coll, Steve, 271 Columbia University, 43 communication and messages, 121, 125–26, 128–32 cryptography and, 124–25, 131, 141, 147 digital, 129–31, 185, 250–51 optical, 256–61 pattern followed by, 128 Communications Development Training Program (CDT; “Kelly College”), 153, 293 Communications Satellite Act, 224 computers, 105–6, 155, 182, 184, 197, 226, 235, 250, 252, 253 chess, 136, 137–38, 143, 322 digital, 123, 251 Echo and, 214 electronic switching and, 233 music and, 225, 244, 325–27 Shannon and, 117–18, 136–44 COMSAT, 224 Conant, James, 157 “Convergence in Webster” game, 133, 197 copper, 83, 84, 86 Cornell University, 14 Corning Glass Works, 261, 262, 277, 278 Craig, Cleo, 179–80 Crawford Hill, 214–18, 220, 223, 258, 259, 340 Cronkite, Walter, 226 cryptography, 124–25, 131, 141, 147 Cuban Missile Crisis, 248 Cutler, C. Chapin, 214 cybernetics, 142 Danielian, N. R., 45–47 Darrow, Karl, 41–42, 43, 202 David, Edward, 228, 229, 238 Davisson, Clinton J. “Davy,” 28–30, 32, 33, 37, 40, 43, 52, 60, 61, 69, 152, 353, 359 Murray Hill complex and, 76 DeButts, John, 273–74, 298 De Forest, Lee, 23 Depression, Great, 36, 37, 41, 43, 75 digital computing, 123, 251 digital information, 129–31, 185, 250–51 digital photography, 261 DiPiazza, Gerry, 293–95 discovery, invention vs., 106–7 Distant Early Warning (DEW) line, 161, 182 “Don’t Write: Telegraph” (Pierce), 202–3 Dorros, Irwin, 239, 264, 265, 333 Drucker, Peter, 302–3, 330 DuBridge, Lee, 157, 245 DuPont, 167 Echo, 212–20, 221, 222, 224, 225, 226, 227, 228, 244, 254, 323, 340 Edison, Thomas, 11–13, 14, 29, 81, 152 carbon granules and, 12, 20 Einstein, Albert, 43, 51, 267 Shannon and, 121, 131–32 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 157, 182, 217–18, 246, 247 electrolytes, 93–94, 95 electromagnetic waves, 235–36 electron diffraction, 37 electronic switching (ESS), 229, 231–34, 235, 260, 261, 290–91 electrons, 15, 42, 43, 83–84, 85, 95, 101 Electrons and Holes in Semiconductors (Shockley), 112 Elizabeth II, Queen, 224 Elmendorf, Chuck, 55, 192–94, 236, 283, 288, 312, 358 energy innovation, 355–56 Engel, Joel, 287–91, 294–95, 354 Epstein, Paul, 15 Espenschied, Lloyd, 63–64 Facebook, 344, 353–54 Fairchild Semiconductor, 251, 252 Fano, Robert, 131 Federal Communications Commission (FCC), 226–27, 260, 270–72, 280–83, 286–88, 290, 295–97, 302, 329 Fermi, Enrico, 43, 60 Feynman, Richard, 42, 63 fiber optics, 258–62, 277–79, 331, 341 testing of, 296–97 field effect, 90–91, 92, 101 Fisk, Jim, 2, 3, 38, 41, 43, 55, 59–60, 68–72, 80, 88, 133, 159, 170, 184–85, 211–13, 234–37, 242, 245–46, 248, 252, 254, 258, 260, 263, 268, 285, 300, 304, 306, 307, 311–13 Baker and, 241–42, 243 retirement of, 266 Fleckenstein, Bill, 237 Fletcher, Harvey, 15, 16, 22, 25, 26, 28, 40, 43, 65, 80, 96, 267 Jewett and, 24 Flexner, Simon, 205 Forrester, Jay, 105–6, 334 Fortune, 142, 163–64, 166, 184–85, 219, 243, 270 Frenkiel, Dick, 284–96, 351 Friis, Harald, 152–53, 174, 196, 206, 209, 213 Fry, Thornton, 122–23 Fuller, Cal, 168–69, 171–72 functional devices, 252 Galambos, Louis, 19–20 Gallatin, Mo., 9–11, 38, 342 Gates, Bill, 4, 357 General Electric (GE), 163, 251, 303, 348 germanium, 86–87, 93–95, 99, 102–4, 107, 109–10, 165–66, 168, 169 purification of, 114, 134 Gibney, Robert B., 93, 96 Ginsparg, Paul, 337 glass, 83 Glennan, Keith, 211 glider planes, 189–90, 192 Goeken, Jack, 271 “Gold Bug, The” (Poe), 124 Golden, William, 157 Goodell, Rae, 313 Google, 341, 344, 353–54 Gordon, Eugene, 109 Gould, Gordon, 255 Gray, Elisha, 17–18, 98 Greene, Harold, 297–98, 299, 302 Gunther-Mohr, Robert, 305–6 Hagelbarger, David, 144, 148 Hagstrum, Homer, 201–2 Hartley, Ralph, 121 Hayes, Brian, 339 Hecht, Jeff, 259 Herriott, Donald, 256 Hewlett, Bill, 308 Hewlett-Packard, 308, 319 Hill, Charles, 179–80 Hoddeson, Lillian, 44, 79, 88, 105 Hoerni, Jean, 181 Holmdel, 213–17, 278, 281 Black Box, 284–85, 331, 338, 339, 340, 354 Crawford Hill, 214–18, 220, 223, 258, 259, 340 horn antenna, 173–74, 206, 207, 209, 215, 223 Howard Hughes Medical Institute, 354–55 How to Build and Fly Gliders (Pierce), 189, 190, 192, 200 Hughes Aircraft, 255 IBM, 348 Kelly as consultant for, 305–6 Imperial College of Science and Engineering, 141 information, 342 digital, 129–31, 185, 250–51 see also communication and messages information theory, 125, 128–30, 135, 136, 141, 142, 149, 151, 185–86, 202, 281, 318–19 innovation, 152–53, 250, 260, 343–44 competition and, 352 energy, 355–56 at Janelia Farm, 355 Kelly’s approach to, 151–52, 186, 211, 343, 345, 347 mistakes in, 262 Morton on, 108–9, 113, 152 spurs to, 153 use of term, 107, 151–52 venture economy and, 347–48 innovation hubs, 355 innovator’s dilemma, 349–50 Institute of Radio Engineers, 203 integrated circuits, 253–54, 260, 261–62, 339 Intel, 290, 308, 341 Internet, 334, 335, 342 invention, 152–53 discovery vs., 106–7 individual genius vs. collaboration in, 133–35 Jakes, Bill, 212–18, 227, 280, 291–92, 295 Jakes, Mary, 214, 215, 216 James, Frank, 10 James, Jesse, 10 Janelia Farm, 354–55 Jansky, Karl, 106 Japan Prize, 359 Javan, Ali, 256 Jet Propulsion, 203 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 210–11, 214, 215, 325 Jewett, Frank Baldwin, 16–19, 21, 24, 26, 27, 30, 31–33, 36–37, 45, 59, 64, 82, 83, 106, 157, 192, 246, 268, 300, 353, 356 as chairman, 78 Fletcher and, 24 Millikan and, 16–17, 22, 24 Murray Hill complex and, 76–77 transatlantic phone service and, 176 transcontinental phone service and, 21–22 Jobs, Steve, 357 Johns Hopkins University, 14 Johnson, Lyndon B., 223, 247, 248 Kahn, David, 125 Kao, Charles, 258–59, 261 Kappel, Frederick, 219, 220, 223, 231 Kasparov, Garry, 322 Keefauver, Bill, 239 Kelly, Joseph Fennimore, 9–10, 11 Kelly, Katherine, 16, 28, 155 Kelly, Mervin, 2, 3, 9–11, 13, 14, 24, 25, 26, 28–30, 32, 33, 36–38, 40, 41, 44–48, 51, 52, 59–71, 73–74, 78–81, 83, 85, 88, 108, 113–14, 127, 134, 141, 149–62, 163, 165, 169, 170, 172–73, 180, 183–85, 234, 236, 242–46, 249, 253, 266–67, 270–71, 274, 285, 300, 304–7, 311, 339, 342–43, 345–46, 352, 353 amplifier work and, 95–97 as Bell Labs executive vice president, 79, 156 as Bell Labs president, 156, 157 death of, 306–7 early life of, 9–10, 342 gardens of, 155–56, 304 as IBM consultant, 305–6 innovation as viewed by, 151–52, 186, 211, 343, 345, 347 interdisciplinary groups created by, 79–80 lectures about Bell labs given by, 149–52 military work of, 157–62, 307 Millikan and, 16 mobile phones and, 280 Murray Hill complex and, 75–78 Nobel Prize and, 181 Parkinson’s disease of, 306 Pierce and, 195–96, 306–7, 345–46 retirement of, 212, 304–5 Sandia Labs and, 159–60, 271 satellite project and, 210, 211–12, 220, 225 Shockley and, 56, 180–82 transatlantic phone cable and, 176–79 transistor and, 99, 101, 105, 108, 110–13, 180 vacuum tube work of, 33–36, 37, 82, 349 work habits of, 155, 156–57 Kennedy, John F., 224, 247, 248 Kilby, Jack, 251–54, 262 Killian, James, 157, 245 Kim, Jeong, 337–38, 343 Kleiner, Eugene, 181, 346 Kleiner Perkins, 346, 348 Kleinrock, Len, 317, 319 Kogelnik, Herwig, 256–57, 341, 345 Kompfner, Rudi, 198, 199, 201, 207, 210–14, 216, 217, 223, 256–58, 265, 275–77, 323–24, 341 death of, 324 fiber optics and, 259–60, 261, 277 Kwajalein, 293–94 Kyoto Prize, 322 Land, Edwin, 248 Landau, Henry, 190 language, 125–26 lasers, 207, 254–58, 261, 276–79, 341 Lewbel, Arthur, 320 Li, Tingye, 259 light, 275–76 infrared, 254–55 lasers, 207, 254–58, 261, 276–79, 341 optical communications, 256–61; see also fiber optics Lilienthal, David, 160 Lillienfield, Julius, 101 linemen, 49 Lombardo, Guy, 218–19 Long Lines, 25, 173, 269, 301 Los Alamos, 159 Los Angeles Times, 314 Lucent, 335–37, 338, 340, 346 Lucky, Bob, 129, 131, 144, 265, 274, 332, 357, 359 on Baker, 238 Pierce and, 190–91 Macdonald, Stuart, 90, 108, 152 magnetron, 67–69, 70, 71 Maiman, Ted, 255–56 Manhattan Project, 4, 63, 64, 66, 134, 157, 356 Marconi, Guglielmo, 177 masers, 207, 208, 209, 254–55, 359 “Mathematical Theory of Communication, A” (Shannon), 127–32, 133 “Mathematical Theory of Cryptography, A” (Shannon), 124, 125, 131 Mathews, Max, 185–86, 225, 325–26 Mayo, John, 300, 302, 327, 331, 344, 348–50, 353 McCalley, Andrew, 39 McGowan, Bill, 271–72 MCI (Microwave Communications Inc.), 271–74, 299, 328 McMillan, Brock, 127, 132, 133, 136, 138, 156, 211 Mendel, Gregor, 134 messages, see communication and messages Metcalfe, Robert, 264 Microsoft, 341, 353–54 Microwave Communications Inc.
Understanding Power by Noam Chomsky
anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Burning Man, business climate, business cycle, cognitive dissonance, continuous integration, Corn Laws, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, global reserve currency, Howard Zinn, liberation theology, Mahatma Gandhi, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage tax deduction, Paul Samuelson, Ralph Nader, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, school choice, strikebreaker, structural adjustment programs, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, union organizing, wage slave, women in the workforce
It may still be going on today (we usually find out about these things a few years later), but it certainly went on through the 1970s. 23 Actually, let me just tell you one piece of it that was revealed about a year ago. It turns out that Operation MONGOOSE practically blew up the world. I don’t know how many of you have been following the new material that’s been released on the Cuban Missile Crisis [1962 U.S.-Soviet showdown over Soviet missiles in Cuba], but it’s very interesting. There have been meetings with the Russians, now there are some with the Cubans, and a lot of material has come out under the Freedom of Information Act here. And there’s a very different picture of the Cuban Missile Crisis emerging. One thing that’s been discovered is that the Russians and the Cubans had separate agendas during the course of the Crisis. See, the standard view is that the Cubans were just Russian puppets. Well, that’s not true, nothing like that is ever true—it may be convenient to believe, but it’s never true.
That wasn’t even reported in the United States when the information was released about a year ago, it was considered so insignificant. The only two places where you can find it reported are in a footnote, on another topic actually, in one of these national security journals, International Security, and also in a pretty interesting book by one of the top State Department intelligence specialists, Raymond Garthoff, who’s a sensible guy. He has a book called Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis, and he brings in some of this material. 27 Actually, other things have been revealed about the Crisis which are absolutely startling. For instance, it turns out that the head of the U.S. Air Force at the time, General Thomas Power, without consultation with the government—in fact, without even informing the government—raised the level of American national security alert to the second highest level [on October 24, 1962].
In fact, throughout this whole period the Russians were very passive, they never reacted much—because they were scared. The fact is, the United States had an enormous preponderance of military force. I mean, the U.S. military thought there was no real problem: they wanted a war, because they figured we’d just wipe the Russians out. 29 WOMAN: But are you saying that the U.S. intentionally created the Cuban Missile Crisis? Well, I’m not quite saying that. These are things that happened in the course of the Crisis—how we got to it is a little different. It came about when the Russians put missiles on Cuba and the United States observed that missiles were going in and didn’t want to allow them there. But of course, there’s a background, as there always is to everything, and part of the background is that the United States was planning to invade Cuba at the time, and the Russians knew it, and the Cubans knew it.
Broken Markets: How High Frequency Trading and Predatory Practices on Wall Street Are Destroying Investor Confidence and Your Portfolio by Sal Arnuk, Joseph Saluzzi
algorithmic trading, automated trading system, Bernie Madoff, buttonwood tree, buy and hold, commoditize, computerized trading, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, financial innovation, Flash crash, Gordon Gekko, High speed trading, latency arbitrage, locking in a profit, Mark Zuckerberg, market fragmentation, Ponzi scheme, price discovery process, price mechanism, price stability, Sergey Aleynikov, Sharpe ratio, short selling, Small Order Execution System, statistical arbitrage, stocks for the long run, stocks for the long term, transaction costs, two-sided market, zero-sum game
Historians will judge how dangerous and disruptive the current financial crisis is compared to the Great Depression, and the story is not over, but despite the tremendous pain caused by the financial crisis, it seems difficult to draw an equivalence between today’s 9% unemployment rate and the Great Depression’s 25% rate, or between today’s hundreds of failed but insured banks and the thousands of failed and uninsured banks back then. It also seems willfully illiterate to ignore the many crises since the Great Depression when the market was not as volatile as it was in 2008. It wasn’t as volatile during the Vietnam War, or the Cuban Missile Crisis, or the Korean War, or World War II, or the Berlin Crisis, or after 9/11, and more, a series of events that plainly included serious risks to life on Earth itself. The market in the 1930s was also tiny compared to modern-day markets. In the 1930s, average daily volume per stock was less than 2,000 shares a day, making it easy to knock prices around. Today, average daily volume per stock is about a million shares, 500 times more.
In the meantime, market volatility is still extreme. Within one week in August 2011, the Dow Jones Industrials Average went up or down by 400 points four days in a row, something it had never done before, ever. Crain’s New York called it the “wildest week on record,” and this after at least some of the SEC’s fixes were already implemented. As a point of comparison, President Kennedy first told the nation about the Cuban Missile Crisis on the evening of October 22, 1962, and warned the entire world was at “the abyss of destruction.” The next day the front page of The New York Times screamed “Kennedy Ready for Soviet Showdown.” The stock market’s reaction? The Dow Jones Industrials Average fell about 200 points, after adjusting for different baselines between 1962 and 2011. It may well be that Standard and Poor’s downgrade of U.S. debt from AAA to AA+, which kicked off that wild week in August, was a greater cataclysm than imminent all-out nuclear war between the United States and the Soviet Union, but it’s difficult to believe.
Massive: The Missing Particle That Sparked the Greatest Hunt in Science by Ian Sample
Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, Donald Trump, double helix, Ernest Rutherford, Gary Taubes, Isaac Newton, Johannes Kepler, John Conway, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, Menlo Park, Murray Gell-Mann, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Stephen Hawking, uranium enrichment, Yogi Berra
The truth emerged days later, when Khrushchev showed footage of the aircraft wreckage. The plane was almost entirely intact, and the pilot was alive and well. Tensions between the Cold War adversaries escalated to a new high. The Soviet physicists that Wilson and his delegation were trying to build relationships with could hardly bear to speak to them. The U-2 incident was followed swiftly by the Cuban missile crisis, which pushed the United States and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war. But in spite of desperate political upheavals throughout the 1960s and 1970s, a small group of scientists from America, the USSR, and CERN continued to sketch out plans for Wilson’s World Accelerator. As presidents and premiers fell, Wilson saw the project as a way to heal the wounds of war, to replace suspicion and secrecy with trust and cooperation.
Calogero, Francesco Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) Camporesi, Tiziano Cancer treatment Carroll, Sean Cashmore, Roger Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Posner) “Cathode rays” experiments Cat’s Cradle (Vonnegut) CERN about description financial problems as international safety committee CERN accelerators beginnings Gargamelle detector/group neutral currents Soviet Union and See also Particle accelerators CERN colliders argument/poem beginnings design W/Z particles and CERN LEP (Large Electron Positron) collider about/description closing plans/extensions competition with Fermilab’s Tevatron construction evidence for Higgs Higgs boson and high-speed train effects Lake Geneva and meetings/decision on closing moon/sun effects pollution concerns and pushing to limit sabotage Thatcher’s speech and underground location and W/Z particles and Z particles and CERN LHC (Large Hadron Collider) about/description competition with Fermilab’s Tevatron construction/schedule doomsday scenarios and explosion (2008) funding Higgs boson and media on “imaginary” goal repairs/safety system (2011) running at half energy supersymmetry and switch-on U.S. colliders and Chadwick, James Churchill, Winston Clark, Ronald W. Clarke, Arthur C. Cline, David Clinton, Bill Cockroft, John Cogill, Michael Coleman, Sidney Color charge Conway, John background blogging Fermilab and Copernicus, Nicolaus Cosmic inflation theory Cosmic rays collider safety and strangelets and vacuum decay and Coulson, Charles Crick, Francis Cuban missile crisis Curie, Marie Dark energy Dark matter Darriulat, Pierre Darwin, Charles Das Gupta, Sabul De Broglie, Louis Department of Energy, U.S. Deryagin, Boris Descartes, René Desertron accelerator Di Lella, Luigi Dimensions Dirac, Paul background/description equation magnetic monopoles Nobel lecture question quantum mechanics/relativity Salam and Discover magazine Dixon, Paul DNA structure Donohoe, F.J.
The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas S. Kuhn, Ian Hacking
American schoolchildren had to practice cowering under their desks. At least once a year towns sounded an air raid siren, at which everyone had to take shelter. Those who protested against a nuclear weapon, by ostentatiously not taking shelter, could be arrested, and some were. Bob Dylan first performed “A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall” in September 1962; everyone assumed it was about nuclear fallout. In October 1962 there was the Cuban Missile Crisis, the closest the world has come, after 1945, to nuclear war. Physics and its threat were on everyone’s mind. The Cold War is long over, and physics is no longer where the action is. Another event of 1962 was the awarding of Nobel prizes to Francis Crick and James Watson for the molecular biology of DNA and to Max Perutz and John Kendrew for the molecular biology of hemoglobin. That was the harbinger of change.
., xiin11 Cold War, ix commitment: group commitment, 181–86; instrumental, 40–41; and normal science, 7, 40–42, 43; to paradigm, 100–101; quasi-metaphysical commitments, 41 communities, scientific, xxi, xxii, xxiv; insulation from demands of everyday life, 163–64; losses due to paradigm changes, 169; practitioners of a scientific specialty, 176; rarely study the same problems, 161; requisites for membership, 167–68; structure of, and paradigms, 19–20, 175–86; subject matter of, 179 computer communication, ix Comte, Auguste, xxxiv, xxxivn42 Conant, James, viii, xlv conjectures, xiv Continental mechanics, 33 Copernicus and Copernican revolution, xliv, 6, 76, 80, 93, 98, 156; and calendar design and astrology, xlv, 82, 152; and paradigm-induced changes in scientific perception, xxviii, 116–17, 153–54; and prediction of annual parallax, 27; Preface to the De Revolutionibus, 69; prerevolutionary crisis state, 67–70, 71, 74, 75, 76, 82, 83, 86; resistance to, 148–49, 150 correspondence theory, xxxv Coulomb, Charles-Augustin de, 21, 29, 34; Coulomb’s Law of electrical attraction, 28, 35, 36 counterinstances, 77, 78–80, 82, 131 Crick, Francis, ix crisis, xi, xxiii, xxv, xliii; and anomaly, 68, 81–83; and argument and counterargument, 156; and blurring of a paradigm, 84; description of in the De Revolutionibus, 69; effects of, 83–84; may develop in one community and create crisis in another, 180; and multiple emergent paradigms, xxxii; often proliferates new discoveries, 88–89; in physics in late nineteenth century, 72–75; in pneumatic chemistry, 86; preceding Lavoisier’s oxygen theory of combustion, 70–72; as precondition for novel theories, 75, 77; and prolonged awareness of anomaly, 68; provision of data for paradigm shift, 89; response to, 77–91; and theory change, xxvii; transition to new paradigm, 84–91 Crookes, William, 58n7, 93 Cuban Missile Crisis, ix d’Alembert, Jean, 31 Dalton, John, xxix, 79, 106, 191–92; chemical atomic theory, 129, 131, 132–34, 138, 140, 180 Darrow, K. K., “Nuclear Fission,”60n10 Darwin, Charles: lack of recognized goal, 170–71; The Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, xv, 149–51 De Broglie, Louis, 157 definitions, 183 dephlogisticated air, 54, 55, 80, 85, 118, 146 Desaguliers, John Theophilus, 14 Descartes, René, 41, 104, 121, 126, 149, 193 descriptive and narrative modes, 206–7 development, scientific: competition between views of nature in early stages of, 4; concept of development-by-accumulation, 2–3; and expectations, 59; and first received paradigm, 64; prior to universally received paradigm, 12–18; schools characteristic of early stages of, 17 Dewey, John, xxxvii disciplinary matrix, 181–86, 187 discoveries (novelties of fact), 53; and destructive-constructive paradigm changes, 53, 66, 97; difficulty of establishing priority, 55–56; gradual and simultaneous emergence of observational and conceptual recognition, 56, 62; and previous awareness of anomaly, 62; resistance to, 62.
Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts by Carol Tavris, Elliot Aronson
Ayatollah Khomeini, cognitive dissonance, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, Donald Trump, false memory syndrome, fear of failure, Lao Tzu, longitudinal study, medical malpractice, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral panic, Nelson Mandela, placebo effect, psychological pricing, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, social intelligence, telemarketer, the scientific method, trade route, transcontinental railway, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!
He had believed the claims and faulty intelligence reports of his top military advisers, who assured him that once Americans invaded Cuba at the Bay of Pigs, the people would rise up in relief and joy and overthrow Castro. The invasion was a disaster, but Kennedy learned from it. He reorganized his intelligence system and determined that he would no longer accept uncritically the claims of his military advisers, a change that helped him steer the country successfully through the subsequent Cuban missile crisis. After the Bay of Pigs fiasco, Kennedy spoke to newspaper publishers and said: "This administration intends to be candid about its errors. For as a wise man once said, 'An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.'...Without debate, without criticism, no administration and no country can succeed—and no republic can survive." The final responsibility for the failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion was, he said, "mine, and mine alone."
See pyramid of choice Christensen, Andrew, [>], [>] Cialdini, Robert, [>]–[>] Civil War, [>], [>], [>]–[>] Clancy, Susan, [>]–[>] Claytor, Ralph, [>]–[>] clinical psychologists, [>], [>] clinical trials, [>]–[>] Clinton, Bill, [>], [>], [>] (n.2) Clinton, Hillary, [>] cloning, [>] closed loops, of mental-health practitioners, [>]–[>], [>]–[>], [>], [>], [>]–[>] cognitive dissonance, [>], [>]–[>] admitting mistakes, [>]–[>], [>] (n.2) behaviorism and, [>]–[>] brain processing of information, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] catharsis and, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] (n.16) confirmation bias and, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] in decision making, [>]–[>], [>] (n.12) denial of problems in legal system and, [>]–[>], [>] denial of problems in mental-health profession, [>]–[>], [>] doomsday predictions and, [>]–[>], [>], [>] initiation experiments and, [>]–[>], [>], [>]–[>] irrevocability and, [>] lessons from dissonance theory, [>]–[>] living with dissonance, [>]–[>] in marriage, [>], [>]–[>] memory and, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] nature of, [>]–[>] obedience to authority and, [>]–[>], [>], [>] (n.27)—[>] popular use of term, [>] recognizing own, [>]–[>] self-concept and, [>]–[>] virtuous circle and, [>]–[>] Cohen, Geoffrey, [>] Cohen, Richard, [>]–[>] Columbia space shuttle explosion, [>]–[>] compassion, virtuous circle and, [>]–[>] con artists, [>]–[>] concentration camps Birkenau, [>] Camp Erika, [>], [>]–[>] (n.17) Majdanek, [>], [>] confessions, false, [>]–[>], [>]–[>], [>]–[>], [>]–[>], [>], [>]–[>] confirmation bias, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] blind spots and, [>] legal system and, [>], [>] in marriage, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] mental-health practitioners and, [>], [>], [>] nature of, [>] testimony of children and, [>]–[>] conflict resolution, in marriage, [>]–[>], [>]–[>], [>]–[>] conflicts of interest corporate, [>], [>]–[>] gifts and, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] pharmaceuticals industry, [>]–[>] in politics, [>]–[>], [>]–[>], [>] science versus commerce, [>]–[>] Connolly, Patrick, [>] Conroy, John, [>] contempt, in marriage, [>]–[>] control groups, [>], [>] Convicting the Innocent (Borchard), [>]–[>] convictions, false, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] Conway, Michael, [>]–[>] corporations conflicts of interest, [>] gifts and, [>]–[>] pharmaceuticals industry, [>]–[>] Courage to Heal, The (Bass and Davis), [>], [>]–[>], [>] Crandall, Chris, [>] Criminal Interrogation and Confessions (Inbau et al.), [>]–[>] Criner, Roy, [>]–[>] Crocker, Charles, [>] Crowe, Michael, [>]–[>], [>], [>] Crowe, Stephanie, [>]–[>] Crusades, [>]–[>] CSX Transportation Inc., [>] Cuba Bay of Pigs fiasco, [>] Cuban missile crisis, [>] Guantánamo Bay and, [>] cults Hare Krishna gifts, [>]–[>] Satanic, [>], [>], [>] Cunningham, Randy "Duke," [>] cycle of abuse, [>]–[>] Daily Show, The (TV program), [>] Damn It Dolls, [>]–[>] Dancing with Daddy (Petersen), [>] Davis, Deborah, [>] Davis, Jefferson, [>] Davis, Keith, [>]–[>] Davis, Laura, [>], [>]–[>], [>] (n.40) daycare center abuse claims, [>]–[>], [>]–[>], [>], [>]–[>] (n.3), [>]–[>] (n.39) Dean, John, Watergate scandal, [>]–[>] death penalty, [>], [>] decision making cognitive dissonance in, [>]–[>], [>] (n.12) pyramid of choice and, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] Dedge, Wilton, [>]–[>] defense mechanisms, [>] de Klerk, Frederik, [>]–[>] DeLay, Tom, [>]–[>] Democrats, [>]–[>], [>]–[>], [>] denial of guilt, confessions and, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] depression, [>]–[>], [>], [>], [>], [>]–[>] DeRenzo, Evan, [>] DeWitt, John, [>] Dickens, Charles, [>] Dinka (Sudan), tooth extraction by, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] discrimination, [>]–[>], [>]–[>] dissociative identity disorder, [>], [>], [>] (n.3) dissonance theory.
Necessary Illusions by Noam Chomsky
anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, British Empire, centre right, collective bargaining, colonial rule, cuban missile crisis, full employment, Howard Zinn, Khyber Pass, land reform, long peace, New Journalism, Ronald Reagan, strikebreaker, union organizing
Anti-Cuban terrorism was directed by a secret Special Group established in November 1961 to conduct covert operations against Cuba under the code name “Mongoose,” involving 400 Americans, 2,000 Cubans, a private navy of fast boats, and a $50 million annual budget, run in part by a Miami CIA station functioning in violation of the Neutrality Act and, presumably, the law banning CIA operations in the United States.29 These operations included bombing of hotels and industrial installations, sinking of fishing boats, poisoning of crops and livestock, contamination of sugar exports, blowing up of civilian aircraft, etc. Not all of these actions were directly authorized by the CIA, but we let no such niceties disturb us when condemning officially designated terrorist states. Several of these terrorist operations took place at the time of the Cuban missile crisis of October-November 1962. In the weeks before, Raymond Garthoff reports, a Cuban terrorist group operating from Florida with U.S. government authorization carried out “a daring speedboat strafing attack on a Cuban seaside hotel near Havana where Soviet military technicians were known to congregate, killing a score of Russians and Cubans”; and shortly after, attacked British and Cuban cargo ships and again raided Cuba among other actions that were stepped up in early October while Congress passed a resolution “sanctioning the use of force, if necessary, to restrain Cuban aggression and subversion in the Western Hemisphere” and voted to withhold aid from any country trading with Cuba.
For reasons of space, I will largely keep to the Newspaper of Record. For further details, see the references of note 36, including some exceptions to the general pattern, primarily in the Christian Science Monitor and Los Angeles Times, and editorials in the Boston Globe. 40. See Manufacturing Consent, chapter 5, and sources cited. A variant of this diplomatic strategy was called “the Trollope ploy” by the Kennedy intellectuals during the Cuban missile crisis, when they sought to evade a proposal by Khrushchev that they recognized would be regarded generally as a reasonable way to terminate the crisis; the “ploy” was to attribute to Khrushchev a different and more acceptable stand, just as the heroine of a Trollope novel interprets a meaningless gesture as an offer of marriage. The December 1988 reversal on speaking to the PLO is another example; see appendix V, section 4. 41.
Fred Barnes, TNR, May 30, 1988; editorial, TNR, April 2, 1984. For a longer excerpt see Turning the Tide, 167-68; and notes, on the efforts by editor Hendrik Hertzberg to evade the facts. Hertzberg, TNR, Feb. 6, 1989. Recall also the laudatory comments on Reagan’s dedication to human rights during the propaganda exercises at the Summits, already discussed. 29. Raymond L. Garthoff, Reflections on the Cuban Missile Crisis (Brookings Institution, 1987, 17). 30. Ibid., 16f., 78f., 89f., 98; International Security, Winter 1987-88, 12. For more on these terrorist operations, see the references of chapter 5, note 25; also U.S. Army Captain Bradley Earl Ayers, The War that Never Was (Bobbs-Merrill, 1976); Warren Hinckle and William Turner, The Fish is Red (Harper & Row, 1981); William Blum, The CIA (Zed, 1986); Morris Morley, Imperial State and Revolution (Cambridge, 1987). 31.
One Up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch
air freight, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, buy and hold, corporate raider, cuban missile crisis, Donald Trump, fixed income, index fund, Irwin Jacobs, Isaac Newton, large denomination, money market fund, prediction markets, random walk, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Y2K, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game
As long as they don’t recognize their predicament, they can just hang out there forever. 20 50,000 Frenchmen Can Be Wrong Thinking back over my tenure as a stockpicker, I remember several major news events and their effects on the prices of stocks, beginning with President Kennedy’s election in 1960. Even at the tender age of sixteen, I’d heard that a Democratic presidency was always bad for stocks, so I was surprised that the day after the election, November 9, 1960, the market rose slightly. During the Cuban missile crisis and our naval blockade of the Russian ships—the one and only time America has faced the immediate prospect of nuclear war—I feared for myself, my family, and my country. Yet the stock market fell less than 3 percent that day. Seven months later, when President Kennedy berated U.S. Steel and forced the industry to roll back prices, I feared for nothing, yet the market had one of its largest declines in history—7 percent.
Lawrence, 85 Clear Channel Communications, 26 Clear Shield, 133 CNA, 155 Coastal Corporation, 214–15 Coca-Cola, 34, 109, 118, 134, 159, 241, 247, 281 brand name, value of, 142, 209 hidden assets of, 210–11 as stalwart company, 112, 115, 162, 163, 176 Coca-Cola Enterprises, 134, 210–11 Coleco, 42 Colgate-Palmolive, 112, 115–16 Comdial, 159 companies: asset-play, 125–27, 128, 129, 174–75, 209–13, 231, 241, 256–57; see also assets biotech, 21 bonds of, 68, 70, 203 book value of, 207–9, 210–11 buying back shares by, 18, 19, 144–45, 153, 157 cash position of, 194, 197, 199–201, 214–15 classification of, 110–29 consumer demand and, 142, 254 contacting, 186–91, 287 cyclical, 119–22, 127–29, 175, 207, 225, 228–29, 241, 253–54 debt of, 194–97, 201–4, 208, 255 diversification of, 135, 145 diworseification of, 124, 153–57 dullness of, 130–32, 160 earnings as value of, 161–62, 164, 167 economy and, 110–11, 120–21 European, 212–13 exclusive franchises and, 140–41 fast-growing, 118–19, 127–29, 162–63, 167, 176, 222, 229–30, 241, 243, 254–55 financial reports of, 194–97; see also annual reports fundamental strength of, 108, 220–21 growth rate of, 110–11, 127–29, 199, 217–19 headquarters of, 190 industries and, 110, 111, 118, 119, 139–40 institutional ownership of, 55, 57, 136, 179, 257 inventories of, 215–16, 253, 255 life of, 222–24 middleman, 160 names of, 160 pension plans of, 217 performances of, 131–33, 138 representatives of, 191 restructuring of, 124, 153 rumors on, 137, 183–84 size of, 64–65, 109–10 slow-growing, 111–12, 127–29, 175, 205, 228, 241, 251–52 spinoffs of, 133–36, 159 stalwart, 112–18, 128, 176, 205, 228, 241, 243, 252 summarizing prospects of, 174–75, 229–34 turnaround, 12, 122–24, 127–29, 153, 159, 175–76, 202, 203–4, 213, 230–31, 241, 255, 260 unpredictability of, 265 as users of technology, 142 value of, 161–62, 164, 167 see also stocks competition, industrial, 139, 176–80 compounding: of earnings, 219 of interest, 67–68 Con Ed, 76, 123, 205–6, 265 Coniston Partners, 279 Conrock, 131 Consolidated Edison, 76, 123, 205–6, 265 Consolidated Foods, 37 Consolidated Rock, 131 Consumer Price Index, 70 Consumer Reports, 107 Container Corporation, 154 Contel, 213 Continental Air, 224–26 copying industry, 152 Corn Products Refining, 72 corporate bonds, 68, 70, 203 corporations, see companies Cosmic R and D, 33 Cray computer, 49 Crazy Eddie, 153 Crown, Cork, and Seal, 131, 160, 190, 267, 268 back share buying by, 144 CSX, 210 Cuban missile crisis, 276 CVS, 155 Dairy Queen, 144 Dart, 133 Dart & Kraft, 133 Datapoint, 134 day traders, 20 Dean Witter, 158 debt: bank vs. funded, 202–3 of companies, 194–97, 201–4, 208, 255 investment in, 67, 70 tax deductions and, 285 -to-equity ratio, 202 deficit, U.S. trade, 284 Del Haize, 212–13 Dell Computer, 25, 26 Delta Airlines, 226 Denny’s, 178 depreciation, 214, 215 deRoetth, Peter, 55, 192, 249 Digital Equipment, 111, 129 diluting, 145, 264 discounting, 100, 171 disk drive industry, 151, 160 Disney, 128, 256 diverse performance, 59–60, 64 dividends, 18–19, 112, 204–7 p/e ratio and, 199 stock price and, 205 taxing of, 285 Dollar General, 25, 26 dot.com stocks, 11 market capitalization of, 13–14 p/e ratio and, 12–13 Dow Chemical, 109, 119, 128, 164, 165 Dow Jones, 47, 48, 51, 52, 53, 88, 128 Japanese, 55, 278 in 1988–89, 288 in 1970s, 278, 289 in October 1987, 28, 69 rise, since 1966, 55 twentieth-century history of, 71–72 Doyle’s, 28, 29, 30 Dravo, 141 Drexel Burnham Lambert, 280 Dreyfus, 89, 95, 102, 103, 104, 247 Dunkin’ Donuts, 33, 64, 66, 163, 281 investment research on, 36, 40–41, 95, 106 as multibagger, 35, 58 DuPont, 109, 212 earnings: compounded, 219 dot.com stocks and, 13 future, 172–73, 187 growth rate and, 199, 217–18 inventories and, 215 punishing, 164–65, 211 as value of stocks, 161–62, 164–65, 167 see also price/earnings ratio Eastern Airlines, 224 Eastman Kodak, 61, 96, 108, 152, 231 Eaton, 61 economic growth, definition of, 110 economy of 1988 vs. 1930, 282–83, 288 Edelman, Asher, 279 efficient-market hypothesis, 52 E.
Five Billion Years of Solitude: The Search for Life Among the Stars by Lee Billings
addicted to oil, Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, California gold rush, Colonization of Mars, cosmological principle, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, Dava Sobel, double helix, Edmond Halley, full employment, hydraulic fracturing, index card, Isaac Newton, Johannes Kepler, Kuiper Belt, low earth orbit, Magellanic Cloud, music of the spheres, out of africa, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, planetary scale, profit motive, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, random walk, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Searching for Interstellar Communications, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Solar eclipse in 1919, technological singularity, the scientific method, transcontinental railway
In the ensuing arms race both the United States and the Soviet Union succeeded in harnessing the far more powerful process of thermonuclear fusion, squeezing the destructive force of hundreds of Nagasakis into individual bombs. The resulting arsenals of thermonuclear weapons were more than adequate to extinguish hundreds of millions of lives in a single nuclear exchange. Those who survived such a nuclear holocaust would face a severely damaged planetary biosphere and a world plunged into a new Dark Age. Less than a year after the Green Bank proceedings, the Cuban missile crisis would bring the world to the brink of thermonuclear war, and as time marched on, more and more nations successfully weaponized the power of the atom. Humans had developed a global society, radio telescopes, and interplanetary rockets at roughly the same time as weapons of mass destruction. If it could happen here, Morrison gloomily suggested, it could happen anywhere. Perhaps all societies would proceed on similar trajectories, becoming visible to the wider cosmos at roughly the same moment they gained an ability to destroy themselves.
., 196, 198, 215, 221–23 Butler, Paul, 55, 58–70, 96, 114 Caldeira, Ken, 181 California, 105–7, 112–13 gold rush in, 105–6, 111, 112–13 Calvin, Melvin, 15, 19–20, 25 Cambrian Period, 138–39, 143–45, 182 Cameron, James, 258 Campbell, Joseph, 261 Canada, 244–48 Canadian Shield, 246 Capella, 239 carbon, 123, 131, 132, 134, 135, 140, 141, 175, 179, 182 carbonate-silicate cycle, 175–81, 184 carbon cycle, organic, 175 carbon dioxide (CO2), 124, 132, 134–37, 140, 141, 157, 159–62, 168, 170, 172, 173, 175–82, 184 Carboniferous Period, 131, 132 Carina Nebula, 238 Carnegie Institution, 251 Carpenter, Scott, 100 Carter, Jimmy, 240 Cash, Webster, 219–20 Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory, 96 Challenger, 3, 188–89 Chandra X-Ray Observatory, 192, 209 Chaotian Eon, 139 Charbonneau, David, 228–30, 232 charged-coupled devices (CCDs), 51–53 China, 21–22 chlorofluorocarbons, 134, 142 chlorophyll, 141, 143 Christmas Tree Cluster, 238 Clinton, Bill, 196, 215 clouds, 161–62, 164, 206 coal, 125, 131, 134, 136, 137, 144, 160, 184 Columbia, 189, 196 comets, 2, 3, 19, 76–77, 140 Halley’s, 3 Compton Gamma Ray Observatory, 192, 209 computers, 43–44 Constellation program, 196, 198, 203, 204, 215, 221, 223 convergent evolution, 21 Cook, James, 85–86 Copernican Principle (principle of mediocrity), 83, 89, 91 Copernicus, Nicolaus, 81–83, 86, 87, 89, 91, 200 Cornell University, 39, 42 coronagraphic TPF, 217–22, 224, 231, 249 coronagraphs, 217 cosmology, 77–82 Copernican Principle (principle of mediocrity) in, 83, 89, 91 inflationary theory in, 89–92 modern, 86–87, 91 see also astronomy Cosmos, 240 Costanza, Robert, 74–75 Crab Nebula, 30 Crabtree, William, 84 Crutzen, Paul, 134–35 Cuban missile crisis, 23–24 cyanobacteria, 140–44, 175, 183 Daily Mail, 74 dark energy, 88, 90 dark matter, 206 Darwin, Charles, 200 Davidson, George, 113 deep time, 145–46 Democritus, 79, 80, 92, 238 Demory, Brice, 259 De Rerum Natura (On the Nature of Things) (Lucretius), 80–81 De Revolutionibus Orbium Coelestium (On the Revolutions of Heavenly Orbs) (Copernicus), 82 Devonian Period, 128, 130–32 Diamandis, Peter, 258 dinosaurs, 30, 136, 144 Discovery, 189 DNA, 40, 141, 143, 170 dolphins, 16, 20–21 Drake, Frank, 9–17, 27–45, 101, 167–68, 240 Arecibo transmission of, 39–41 orchids of, 37–38 Drake equation, 16–25, 28–29, 38–39, 41, 42, 183 longevity of technological civilizations (L term) in, 22–25, 38–39, 41, 42 Draper Laboratory, 256 Dyson, Freeman, 104 Dyson spheres, 104, 105 Earth, 109 asteroid strike on, 30 atmosphere of, 3, 132, 134–35, 139, 140, 144, 157–60, 168–69, 174–77, 206, 238 “Blue Marble” images of, 212, 239–41 carbonate-silicate cycle on, 175–81, 184 climate of, 123–24, 128, 132–37, 142, 144, 156–57, 160–62, 173–75, 184 in early cosmology, 77–82 energy consumption on, 103–4 extinctions on, 43, 135, 184 faint young Sun problem and, 173–75 formation of, 2, 7, 20, 139, 173 geologic time periods of, 128–45 glaciation on, 132–34, 142, 174, 176, 178, 179, 183 human population of, 43, 100, 134, 136 ice caps of, 128, 132–33, 135, 136, 184 Laughlin’s idea for moving orbit of, 76–77 Laughlin’s valuation of, 73–76 oxygen on, 139–44, 159, 171, 180–82, 200, 238 Snowball Earth events, 142, 174, 179 Sun’s distance from, 83, 86 tectonic plates of, 30, 105, 111, 128, 140, 144, 176, 229 union of organisms with geophysical systems on (Gaia hypothesis), 175, 176, 178, 183 water on, 3, 30, 158–61, 174, 177–80, 182 Earth, life on, 31, 154 diversification and explosion of, 138–39, 143, 144, 182 emergence of, 4, 7, 19–20, 238 end of, 7–8, 31–32, 75–77, 159, 180–83 essential facts of, 29–30 humanity’s ascent, 144–46 intelligent, 20–21, 182–83 jump from single-celled to multicellular, 28 redox reactions and, 168 Earth-like planets, 29, 32–34, 71–72, 99, 227–28 Earth-size or Earth-mass planets, 6, 53–54, 56, 200, 227, 251 ecology and economics, 74 economic growth, 102, 103 Eddington, Arthur, 35 Edison, Thomas, 106 Einstein, Albert, 35, 87 Elachi, Charles, 211–12, 214, 221 electricity, 103, 136 Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 254 Endeavour, 190 endosymbiosis, 143 energy, 103–4, 136–38 from fossil fuels, 103, 124–27, 137, 154, 160, 184 Engelder, Terry, 126 Epicurus, 80 Epsilon Eridani, 10–11 Eshleman, Von, 35 ethanol, 137 eukaryotes, 143, 144 European Southern Observatory (ESO), 60, 64, 66 European Space Agency, 222 evolution, 183 convergent, 21 of universe, 88–89 exoplanetology, 13, 14, 34, 51, 193 exoplanets, 5, 27–28, 87, 222–23, 263 51 Pegasi b, 50, 53, 54, 58–59 Alpha Centauri Bb, 98–99 biosignatures and, 167–72, 261–62 Blue Marble images of, 212–15 distinguishing between various compositions of, 251 Earth-like, 29, 32–34, 71–72, 99, 227–28 Earth-size or Earth-mass, 6, 53–54, 56, 200, 227, 251 formation of, 109 GJ 667Cc, 65–69, 72 Gliese 581c, 163 Gliese 581d, 163 Gliese 581g (Zarmina’s World), 63–64, 68, 69, 72, 163 Gliese 876b, 60 habitability of, 154–83 HD 85512b, 163–64 Jupiter-like, 13, 28, 50, 56, 59, 60, 108, 109, 226, 228, 248–49 Laughlin’s valuation of, 71–77 migration theory and, 108 Neptune-like, 56, 108–9, 251 “Next 40 Years” conference on, 225–35, 263 observation of stars of, 33 snow line idea and, 110 super-Earths, 228–29, 251, 262 transits of, 53 TrES-4, 228 exoplanet searches, 5–7, 13–14, 32–33, 69–70 and false-alarm discoveries, 52–53 press releases on progress in, 163–65 SETI and, see SETI spectroscopy in, see spectroscopy, spectrometers see also telescopes Ferguson, Chris, 185–86 financial markets, 111–12 Fischer, Debra, 59, 61, 62, 69, 96 Ford, Eric, 249–50 Ford, Henry, 125 fossil fuels, 103, 124–27, 137, 154, 160, 184 fracking (hydraulic fracturing), 126–27 Gaia hypothesis, 175, 176, 178, 183 galactic planetary census, 54 galaxies, 87, 88, 99, 238 Andromeda, 31, 191, 238 Hubble Telescope and, 191 Local Group of, 88 Milky Way, see Milky Way Galileo, 241–42 Galileo Galilei, 81–83, 210 Galliher, Scot, 257 Garrels, Robert, 178 gas, natural, 125–27, 137, 184 Gemini telescopes, 199–200, 203 General Dynamics Astronautics time capsule, 100–103 geologic time periods, 128–45 geology, 110–11, 123 glaciers, 132–34, 142, 174, 176, 178, 179, 183 Glenn, John, 100 Goldin, Dan, 194, 211, 215, 242 governments, Urey on, 102 gravitational lenses, 35–37 Great Observatories, 192, 197, 209 Greece, ancient, 77, 92, 238 Green Bank conference, 15–25, 27–28, 101, 167–68, 240 greenhouse gases, 124, 134, 137, 157, 160, 174, 175 carbon dioxide, see carbon dioxide methane, 140, 142, 168–71, 174, 200 Grunsfeld, John, 197–99, 225–26, 235 Guedes, Javiera, 96 Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, 74–75 “Habitable Zones around Main Sequence Stars” (Kasting), 155–56, 159 Hadean Eon, 139–40, 156 Halley, Edmond, 84 Halley’s comet, 3 Hart, Michael, 174, 178 Hays, Paul, 176–79 heliocentrism, 79–82 Hiroshima, 23 Holmes, Dyer Brainerd, 100–101 Holocene Epoch, 133–35, 145 Horrocks, Jeremiah, 84 Howard, Andrew, 62 How to Find a Habitable Planet (Kasting), 167 Hu, Renyu, 259 Huang, Su-Shu, 15, 19 Hubble, Edwin, 86–87 Hubble Space Telescope, 189–93, 195, 197–99, 205–7, 209, 218–19, 226 human genome project, 234 hydraulic fracturing (fracking), 126–27 hydrogen, 159, 170–72 Icarus, 155 ice ages, 132, 133, 142–43 Industrial Revolution, 22, 134 inflationary theory, 89–92 Ingersoll, Andrew, 159 intelligence, 20–21, 23, 32, 182–83 interferometry, 213–14, 216, 231 International Space Station (ISS), 187, 189, 197, 202, 207–8, 210 interstellar travel, 44–45, 100–101 iron, 141 James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), 193–99, 202–4, 209, 215, 216, 218, 220, 225, 262 Jensen-Clem, Becky, 259 Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), 211–12, 216, 219, 221–25, 231 Johnson, Lyndon B., 101 Journal of Geophysical Research, 178 Jupiter, 76, 109, 191, 239 Galileo’s study of, 81 Kepler’s laws and, 83 moons of, 28, 110 Jupiter-like planets, 13, 28, 50, 56, 59, 60, 108, 109, 226, 228, 248–49 Kasdin, Jeremy, 219–20 Kasting, Jerry, 150–52 Kasting, Jim, 150–67, 169–84 children of, 153 Kasting, Sandy, 150 Kasting, Sharon, 153 Keck Observatory, 59, 60, 62, 66, 118 Kennedy, John F., 224 Kennedy Space Center, 185 Kepler, Johannes, 82, 83 planetary motion laws of, 82–84 Kepler field stars, 41 Kepler Space Telescope, 13–14, 53–54, 56, 62, 71–73, 98, 108–9, 166, 201, 225, 229–30, 263 Kirschvink, Joseph, 142 Knapp, Mary, 259 Korolev, Sergei, 186 Kuchner, Marc, 217–18 Kuiper Belt, 76 Large Magellanic Cloud, 238 Lasaga, Antonio, 178 Late Heavy Bombardment, 3, 140 Laughlin, Greg, 5–6, 48–50, 53–57, 69–70, 93–100, 107–12, 114–15, 117–20 Alpha Centauri planet search and, 94–98 idea to move Earth, 76–77 magnetic toy of, 93–94 SETI as viewed by, 99 valuation equation of, 71–77 laws of nature, 155–56 Lederberg, Joshua, 15, 16, 167–68 Le Gentil, Guillaume, 85, 117 Leinbach, Mike, 185–86 Lick, James, 112–14 Lick Observatory, 58, 61, 62, 70, 113–19 life, 32 on Earth, see Earth, life on intelligent, 23, 32 single-celled, 20 technological, see technological civilizations light: photons of, 72, 89, 115–16, 156, 191, 193–94, 201, 202, 213, 216, 237–38 polarization of, 115–16 waves of, 213–14, 216 Lilly, John, 15–16, 20–21 Local Group, 88 Lovelock, James, 168, 170, 174–76, 178, 181–83 Lucretius, 80–81 Lyot, Bernard, 217 Madwoman of Chaillot, The, 36 Manhattan Project, 23 Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research, 127, 149 Marcellus formation, 126–30, 137, 138, 141, 144, 160 Marconi, Guglielmo, 48 Marconi Conference Center, 48–50, 53–57 Marcy, Geoff, 57–63, 69, 70, 114, 194, 230–32, 235 Margulis, Lynn, 175 Mars, 19, 50, 87, 100, 107, 109, 155, 167, 179, 191, 192, 239 Kepler’s study of, 82, 83 missions to, 187, 188, 196, 207, 221 water on, 28, 179 Marshall, James, 105–6, 112 Martian Chronicles, The (Bradbury), 98–99 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 251–52, 259 ExoplanetSat project, 256–57 “Next 40 Years of Exoplanets” conference at, 225–35, 263 Mayor, Michel, 58 McPhee, John, 145 mEarth Project, 228–29 mediocrity, principle of (Copernican Principle), 83, 89, 91 Mercury, 82, 109, 239 meteorites, 20 methane, 140, 142, 168–71, 174, 200 methanogens, 140, 142, 169 microbes, 28 Miletus, 77 Milky Way, 16–17, 25, 31, 39, 41, 79, 86–87, 191, 237, 238 Sun’s orbit in, 95 Miller, George P., 101 Miller, Stanley, 19 Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science, 48, 74 mitochondria, 143 Moon, 3, 76, 100, 229, 242 in early cosmology, 78, 83 formation of, 30, 139 Moon, missions to, 188, 196, 221, 224 Apollo, 1, 50, 151, 187, 202, 212, 239 Morrison, Philip, 15, 18–19, 21, 23–24 Mosely, T.
The Despot's Accomplice: How the West Is Aiding and Abetting the Decline of Democracy by Brian Klaas
Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Boris Johnson, citizen journalism, clean water, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, eurozone crisis, failed state, financial independence, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, global pandemic, moral hazard, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, Skype, Steve Jobs, trade route, Transnistria, unemployed young men, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game
USAID claimed that the covert app 49 THE DESPOT’S ACCOMPLICE disappeared because funding ran out, but there are suspicions that its true nature was uncovered and deemed a risk to American public relations at a time when US-Cuban relations were beginning to show signs of a thaw. â•… This intervention in Cuba offers two lessons. First, diplomatic history casts a long shadow: tiny Cuba continued to be perceived as a disproportionate threat in Washington for decades beyond the Cuban Missile Crisis. Second, modern-day diplomacy aimed at promoting democracy around the world has not completely dissociated itself from bizarre plots straight out of a James Bond film, a sort of misguided GoldenHashtag sequel to Goldeneye or Goldfinger. â•… Yet in all the cases mentioned above, from Iran to the Democratic Republic of Congo to Chile or Cuba, the perceived threat was exaggerated and overblown.
., 138 Development Assistance Committee (DAC), 58 Devlin, Larry, 43 Diamond, Larry, 171 Dictator’s Learning Curve, The (Dobson), 210 digital communications, 49, 125, 161–75, 207, 208, 221, 223 Dirección de Inteligencia Nacional (DINA), 48 direct democracy, 28–9 disabled rights, 141, 144 disinformation, 207–8 Dobson, Will, 210 “Don’t Forget Me” (GooGoosha), 140 Dubai, 82 Duékoué, Côte d’Ivoire, 105 Dulles, Alan, 41 Durack, Western Australia, 29–30 Duvalier, Jean-Claude “Baby Doc”, 114 Ebola, 184 echo chamber effect, 165 Egypt, 6, 9–10, 13–16, 27, 88, 155, 163–4, 225 1987 US aid payments begin, 14 2001 EU Association Agreement, 155 2008 Afifi exiled to US, 163 2009 Clinton describes Mubaraks as ‘friends of my family’, 6; Obama’s Cairo speech, 9–10, 218 2011 Tahrir Square protests begin, 10, 13, 163–4; Mubarak ousted, 13, 164 2012 Morsi elected president, 14; anti-Morsi demonstrations begin, 164, 247 2013 coup d’état; el-Sisi comes to power, 14–16, 88, 164; Saudi Arabia announces aid package, 15 Eid al-Kabir, 124 Eisenhower, Dwight David, 38, 43 elections campaign finance, 185–8, 238 foreign aid/intervention, 97–110, 143 “free and fair”, 8, 14, 88–90, 102, 159, 193 gerrymandering, 180–5, 188, 251 grade inflation, 88–9, 158, 159 inclusivity, 24, 129–31, 221 observation/monitoring, 8, 65, 81, 83–4, 88–90, 102, 158–9, 173–4, 178, 211, 223 polling, 174–6 respect for, 5, 37–48 rigging of, 22–3, 34, 61, 63–4, 70–1, 83–5, 87, 112, 158–9, 166, 210–11 short-term thinking, 26, 54, 56 turnout, 180, 184 Electoral Integrity Project, 189, 238 Elizabethville, Congo, 43 “emerging democracy”, 88 Emory University, 136 261 INDEX “End of History”, 163, 214 English Civil War (1642–51), 31 Ennahda party, 126–8 Equatorial Guinea, 6, 11, 121, 173, 220 Erdoggan, Recep Tayyip, 20, 161–3, 176 Eritrea, 11, 24 Estonia, 17, 149, 151 Ethiopia, 27 Eton College, Berkshire, 202 European Commission, 150 European Parliament, 84, 180 European Partnership for Democracy (EPD), 58 European Union (EU), 2, 3, 56, 61–3, 65–7, 84, 90, 100, 143, 145, 148–56, 160, 180, 195, 214, 223, 225, 247 1999 European Parliament elections, 180 2004 Eastern Bloc countries accede to Union, 148–9 2005 intervention in Palestinian election campaign, 100 2006 asset ban on Lukashenko government, 63 2008 aid given for Ghanaian election, 143 2009 Eurozone crisis begins, 180, 190 2013 endorsement of Azerbaijani election, 84; endorsement of Malagasy election, 90 2014 Riga designated European Capital of Culture, 148, 225 2015 Riga summit; Juncker slaps Orbán, 150 2016 Belarus sanctions suspended, 65, 67, 195; Zimbabwe sanctions suspended, 247; UK Â€ 262 holds membership referendum, 1 Eurozone crisis, 180, 190 Facebook, 125, 161–3, 165, 168, 172, 223 Falls Church, Virginia, 163 famine, 24 Fatah, 99–102 Fats Domino, 207 Ferjani, Said, 125–33, 142, 156, 221, 224 Fidesz Party, 150–2 financial crisis (2008–9), 185, 206 FixMyStreet, 171 Florida, United States, 117 Forces Nouvelles, 106 Ford, Gerald, 45 Foreign Affairs, 53 foreign aid, 14–15, 47, 49, 52, 57, 89, 90, 92, 93, 95, 100–1 Fourteen Points (1918), 35 France, 2, 33, 44, 55–6, 58, 72, 89, 106, 108–10, 115, 129, 214, 225 “free and fair”, 8, 14, 88–90, 102, 159, 193 free speech, 94, 103, 161–3, 165, 188 free trade zones, 152–60 Freedom House, 139, 140, 189 Friedrich Ebert Foundation, 189 Front Populaire Ivorien, 105 FSB (Federal’naya sluzhba bezopasnosti), 61 Fukuyama, Francis, 74, 163, 214 fungibilty, 95 Gaddafi, Muammar, 24, 76–9, 102, 113, 129 Gambia, The, 121 Gandhi, Jennifer, 136 INDEX Gaza, Palestine, 100–1, 240–1 Gbabgbo, Laurent, 105–10, 111, 119 General Motors, 48 Geneva Convention, 177 Geneva, Switzerland, 140 George III, King of the United Kingdom, 31 Georgia, 143 Geraldton, Western Australia, 30 Germany, 17, 23, 35, 44, 56, 58, 74–5, 103–4, 147–8, 165, 189, 201, 204, 208, 213, 223 Gerry, Elbridge, 181–2 gerrymandering, 180–5, 188, 251 Ghana, 17, 143, 144, 171 Ghani, Rula, 137 globalization, 153 Globe & Mail, 94 golden handcuffs, 111, 119–21, 154 golden parachutes, 19, 116–21 Gollum, 20, 161–3, 165, 176 Google, 164 GooGoosha (Gulnara Karimova), 140, 145 Government Organized NonGovernmental Organizations (GONGOs), 209–10, 212 grade inflation, 88, 99, 158, 159 Great Leap Forward (1958–61), 24 Greece, 20, 21, 22, 27–30, 31, 156, 230 Green Revolution (2009), 135–6, 166–8 gridlock, 184–5, 187 Guardian, 166 gun regulation, 186–7 gunboat diplomacy, 116, 118, 120 Gutiérrez, Luis, 182 Guyana, 171, 220 Guys and Dolls, 40 Hague, William, 77 Haiti, 114–21 Hamas, 99–104, 241 Harmodius, 28 Harvard University, 45 health care, 184–5 Henry IV “the Impotent”, King of Castile and Léon, 30, 231 Herodotus, 29 Higiro, Robert, 94 Hipparchus, 28 Hitler, Adolf, 23, 103–4, 165 HIV (human immunodeficiency virus), 116, 207 Hobart, Tasmania, 153 homosexuality, 12, 20 Hong Kong, 168–70, 176, 221 House of Representatives, 33, 181 human rights, 10, 11, 52, 54, 57, 64, 113, 118, 139, 209, 213 Humphrey, Hubert, 21 Hungary, 150–2, 160, 171 Hussein, Saddam, 63, 72, 73, 79, 124, 156–7 I Paid a Bribe, 170–1 Ibragimbekov, Rustam, 82 Iceland, 88 Iglesias, Julio, 140 “illiberal democracy”, 227 Illinois, United States, 182–3 Iloniaina, Alain, 222–3 imihigo program, 93 Immunization of the Revolution, 127 inclusion, 24, 129–31 India, 56, 98, 152, 156, 170–1, 172, 220 Indonesia, 27, 156, 218 Indyk, Martin, 102 insidious model effect, 46, 48 Inter-Commission Working Group 263 INDEX on International Cooperation, 211 Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), 52, 53 International Criminal Court (ICC), 106, 109, 118, 119 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 105 International Republican Institute (IRI), 58, 142 Internet, 49, 125, 161–75, 207, 208, 221, 223 iPad, 151 iPhones, 20, 83, 135–6, 145 Iran, 26, 30, 36, 38, 47, 48, 69, 98, 117, 135–6, 145, 208, 232 1951 nationalization of AngloIranian Oil Company, 38 1953 Operation Ajax; Mossadegh ousted, 38–42, 98, 208 1979 Islamic Revolution, 42, 117, 216 2009 intervention in Lebanese election, 98; presidential election; Green Revolution protests, 135–6, 166–8 2010 VOA announces “citizen journalism” iPhone app, 135–6, 145 2015 nuclear deal, 26 Iraq, 2, 5, 20, 49, 63, 67, 72–5, 77, 78, 79, 98, 124, 128, 129, 133, 156–7, 198, 213 1979 Saddam comes to power, 72, 129 1990 invasion of Kuwait, 156 2003 US-led invasion, 63, 72–3, 77, 84, 98, 156, 201, 234; de-Ba’athification campaign, 72, 77, 124, 128 2006 formation of al-Maliki government, 73 264 2015 IS execute election officials, 74 Ireland, 90, 217 Islam, 11, 12, 16, 99, 105, 123–6, 129, 131, 177, 218 Islamic State (IS), 74, 78, 131 Islamism, 99, 123–6, 129, 131, 177 Israel, 14, 99–104 Italy, 98, 192 Jackson, Peter, 162 Jammeh,Yahya, 121 Japan, 17, 24, 35, 56, 58, 74–5, 89, 112, 154, 156, 164, 204, 206, 217, 218, 220 al-Jazeera, 76 Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 172 Joan of Portugal, Queen consort of Castile, 231 Jobs, Steve, 151 Johnson, Boris, 202 Jordan, 18, 60, 155 Juncker, Jean-Claude, 150 Kabila, Joseph, 121 Kabul, Afghanistan, 70 Kagame, Paul, 6, 91–6 Kagan, Robert, 217–18 Kakul Military Academy, 53 Kallel, Abdallah, 124 Kant, Immanuel, 118 Karbala, Iraq, 201 Karegeya, Patrick, 94 Karimov, Islam, 139–40, 142, 154 Karimova, Gulnara, 139–40, 145 Karnataka, India, 170 Karoui, Nébil, 131 Karzai, Hamid, 70 Katanga, Congo, 43–4 Keane, John, 30 INDEX Kennedy, John Fitzgerald, 11, 35–6, 55, 190, 192 Kenya, 220 KGB (Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti), 3, 61–2, 147–8, 194, 225 Khan, Rana Sanaullah, 52 Khomeini, Ruhollah, 167 Kim Jong-un, 136, 181 Kingdom of Ebla, 28 Kipling, Rudyard, 69 Kissinger, Henry, 44–7, 214 knee-jerk reactions, 26, 55 Koch Brothers, 185–6 Konrad Adenauer Foundation, 58, 189 Kounalakis, Eleni, 151 kratos, 27 Kununurra, Western Australia, 30 Kuwait, 156, 229 Kyrgyzstan, 185 2011 NATO-led intervention, 76–7; death of Gaddafi, 76–7, 113 2013 Political Isolation Law, 77, 128 LINE, 164–5 Literary Digest, 174 lobbying, 186–7 local-level democracy, 3, 18, 169–73 locusts, 6–7 London, England, 132–3 long-term thinking, 4, 46, 48, 51–67, 138, 141, 234 Lord of the Rings (Tolkien), 20, 161–3, 165, 176 “Luck Be a Lady Tonight”, 40 Lukashenko, Alexander, 61–7, 154, 193–5, 206, 222 Lumumba, Patrice, 42–4 Lumumbashi, Congo, 43 Lake, Anthony, 117 Landon, Alf, 174 Langouste (Ramakavélo), 87 Laos, 200 Latin Earmuffs, 182 Latvia, 147–50, 151–2, 154, 160, 225 League of Democracies, 152–60, 212 Lebanon, 98 Léon, 30–1, 231 Léopoldville, Congo, 43 Levy, Phil, 157 Libya, 2, 5, 20, 24, 49, 67, 69, 76–9, 102, 113, 128, 129, 133, 156, 213 1969 coup d’état; Gaddafi comes to power, 78, 113, 129 2008 Rice makes visit, 76 MacCann, William, 34 Madagascar, 3, 6–9, 17, 20, 59, 85–91, 96, 200, 220, 222–3, 234–5 1991 Panorama Convention, 87 1992 presidential election, 87 1993 population census, 89 2006 presidential election, 85–6 2009 coup d’état; Rajoelina comes to power, 6, 90 2012 Rajoelina announces capture of bandits’ sorcerer, 7 2013 general election, 8, 89–90, 211, 222–3 Madagascar Effect, 6–8, 17, 81, 96, 159, 204, 234–5 Madison, James, 31–2 Malaysia, 153, 218 al-Maliki, Nouri, 73–4 Mao Zedong, 23, 24 265 INDEX marketplace of ideas, 24, 219 Mauritius, 220 May, Theresa, 26 McCain, John, 77 McMahon, Michael, 83 McSpedon, Joe, 49 Megara, 156 Mejora Tu Escuela, 171 El Mercurio, 47 Merkel, Angela, 208 Mesopotamia, 28 Mexico, 27, 149, 155, 156, 171, 172, 178 MI6, 43 Miami, Florida, 117 Miloševicc, Slobodan, 98, 120 Minnesota, United States, 21, 186–7 Minsk, Belarus, 19, 61–2, 66, 192, 193 Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 119 Mobutu, Joseph-Desiré, 43–4 Mogadishu, Somalia, 116 Moghaddam, Ismail Ahmadi, 167 Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Shah of Iran, 39–42, 117 Moldova, 195–6 Mondale, Walter, 21 Mong Kok riots (2016), 169 Mongolia, 17, 30, 189 Morjane, Kamel, 130 Morocco, 155, 171 Morsi, Mohammed, 14, 15, 164, 247 Moscow, Russia, 210 Mossadegh, Mohammed, 38–42, 43, 232 Mosul, Iraq, 72, 73 al-Moubadara, 130 Mubarak, Hosni, 6, 13, 164 Mugabe, Robert, 112–13, 157–8 Mugenzi, Rene Claudel, 94–5, 189 Â€ 266 Muhirwa, Alice, 93 Muñiz de Urquiza, María, 90 Munyuza, Dan, 94 Musharraf, Pervez, 51–7 Myanmar, 218, 225 Nasiri, Nematollah, 40 Nation, The, 198 National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), 197 National Democratic Institute (NDI), 58, 92, 142 National Endowment for Democracy (NED), 58, 60, 144, 247 National Rifle Association (NRA), 186–7 Native Americans, 32, 33 Nawabshah, Pakistan, 51 Nazi Germany (1933–45), 23, 44, 74–5, 103–4, 147–8, 165 Nepal, 98 Netherlands, 58, 89, 143 Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy, 58 New Stanford Hospital, Palo Alto, 26 NewYork Times, 71, 93, 185–6 New Zealand, 112, 156, 209 Nicaragua, 24, 98 Nidaa Tounes, 131 Niger, 185 Nigeria, 171, 172 Nixon, Richard, 44–7 Niyazov, Saparmurat, 25 Nobel Prize, 18, 24, 131, 156, 163 non-alignment, 43 non-governmental organizations (NGOs), 58–60, 141–2, 144, 158, 209–10, 212, 238 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 45, 55, 77 INDEX North Carolina, United States, 183 North Korea, 4, 11, 136, 138, 144, 173, 176, 181 Norway, 24, 77, 205, 219 nuclear power/weapons, 26, 192 Nunavut, Canada, 153, 230–1 Nunn, Sam, 116 Nuristan, Afghanistan, 70 Nyaklyayew, Uladzimir, 61–2, 65 Nyamwasa, Faustin Kayumba, 94 Obama, Barack, 6, 9–10, 14, 49, 54, 55, 57–8, 76, 96, 111, 183, 204, 205, 218 Obiang, Teodoro, 6, 121 Odysseus, 22, 153 oil, 4, 11, 16, 24, 84, 192, 229 olive oil, 125 Operation Ajax (1953), 38–42, 98, 208 Operation Desert Storm (1991), 156 Operation Enduring Freedom (2001–14), 70 Operation Uphold Democracy (1994–5), 116 Orbán, Viktor, 150–2 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), 64 Ortega, Daniel, 98 Orwell, George, 15, 101, 199 Oswald, Lee Harvey, 192 Ouattara, Alassane, 105–10, 119 Oxford University, 198, 202 OxfordGirl, 166 Pakistan, 18, 50–7, 70, 220, 233 Palestine, 99–104, 108, 240–1 Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), 99 Panama, 117 Panorama Convention (1991), 87 Papua New Guinea, 188 parliaments, 31 partisan engagement, 99–104 Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC), 156 People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), 197, 202 Pericles, 29 Persia, 28 Peru, 153 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 33 Philippines, 218 Pinochet, Augusto, 47–8, 225 Piromya, Kasit, 204–5 Plateau Dokui, Abidjan, 107 Plato, 29 Poland, 201 Political Isolation Law (2013), 77, 128 polling, 174–6 Pomerantsev, Peter, 210 Pongsudhirak, Thitinan, 165 Port-au-Prince, Haiti, 117 Portugal, 218, 231 Pouraghayi, Saeedah, 167 Powell, Colin, 116, 120 Préval, René, 117 Price, Melissa, 30 Princeton University, 186 prisoner’s dilemma, 200 process engagement, 99–100 propaganda-industry tax, 209 protectionism, 177 proto-democracy, 28 Public Diplomacy of the Public Chamber of Russia Elections, 211 Pul-i-Charki, Kabul, 71 Putin, Vladimir, 63, 64–5, 194–5, 204, 207, 214 267 INDEX al-Qaeda, 18, 50, 52–3, 55, 78, 177, 234 Qatar, 155, 229 Qatif, Saudi Arabia, 11, 16 Queen, 121 racism, 176, 218, 250 Rajoelina, Andry, 6 Ramadan, 126 Ramakavélo, Desiré-Philippe, 86–7 Rao, Bhaskar, 170 Rassemblement des Républicains, 105 Ratchaburi, Thailand, 199 Ravalomanana, Marc, 6 Reagan, Ronald, 35–6, 55 realpolitik, 4, 45, 48, 98, 104 refugees, 208 representative democracy, 30–3 Republican Party, 39, 58, 79, 124, 142, 181, 182–8 Rever, Judi, 94 Riahi, Taghi, 39–40 Rice, Condoleeza, 76, 102 Riga, Latvia, 147–8, 150, 160, 225 rock lobster, 87 Rojanaphruk, Pravit, 198–9, 221, 223–4 Romania, 149, 209 Rome, Ancient (753 BC–476 AD), 21, 30 Romney, Mitt, 112 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 39, 174 Roosevelt, Kermit, 38–40, 208 Roosevelt, Theodore “Teddy”, 39 de Rosas, Juan Manuel, 34–5 Roskam, Peter 183 rule of law, 10, 27, 73, 77, 136, 159, 209, 218 Rumsfeld, Donald, 145 Russia Today (RT), 207–9 268 Russian Federation, 24, 27, 60–1, 63–5, 82, 106, 140, 149, 190, 191–6, 204, 205–12, 214, 221, 229 1996 Commonwealth with Belarus established, 194 2002 proposal for re-integration of Belarus, 194 2005 support for Moldovan opposition on Transnistria, 195–6; Russia Today established, 207 2010 Putin sings Fats Domino’s Blueberry Hill, 207 2013 endorsement of Azerbaijani election, 211 2014 annexation of Crimea; intervention in Ukraine, 64, 65; RT reports “genocide” in Ukraine, 207; RT reports CIA behind Ebola outbreak, 207 2015 NED banned, 60; pressure on Belarus to host military base, 65, 195 2016 RT report on rape of “Lisa” in Germany, 208; Putin praised by Trump, 214 Rwanda, 6, 20, 91–6, 120, 185, 189, 215, 216 Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), 91 San Diego State University, 209 sanctions, 52, 62–5, 67, 103, 106, 135–6, 145, 156–8, 160, 195, 247, 253 Sandinista National Liberation Front, 98 Sandy Hook massacre (2012), 186 dos Santos, José Eduardo, 112–13 Sarkozy, Nicolas, 108 INDEX SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), 25–6 Saudi Arabia, 5–6, 9–12, 15–16, 19–20, 85, 98, 138, 144, 200, 216, 229 1962 slavery abolished, 11 2009 intervention in Lebanese election, 98; children sentenced to prison and lashes for stealing exam papers, 11, 16; Jeddah floods, 172 2010 Indonesian maid mutilated by employer, 11, 12; arms deal with US, 10–12 2011 Qatif protests, 16 2013 aid package to Egypt announced, 15; purchase of US naval craft announced, 16; Badawi sentenced to prison and lashes, 16 Saudi Arabia Effect, 5, 9, 16, 85, 138, 200 Schneider, René, 45 School of the Americas, 115 Seattle, Washington, 77 Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), 43 Sen, Amartya, 24 Senate, US, 32–3, 187 Senegal, 42, 121 September 11 attacks (2001), 18, 52–3, 55, 70 Serbia, 98, 120 Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 211 Sharif, Nawaz, 51–2, 233 Shinawatra, Thaksin, 196, 199, 201, 202, 205 Shinawatra,Yingluck, 198 short-term thinking, 3–4, 26, 46, 48, 51–67, 120, 138, 141, 234 Shushkevich, Stanislav, 192–3 Siberia, 147, 148 Sidick, Koné Abou Bakary, 107–9 Sierra Leone, 88, 171, 209 Singapore, 23, 24, 27, 93, 155, 215, 216, 217, 229 Siripaiboon, Thanakorn, 165 el-Sisi, Abdel Fattah, 15 Skujenieks, Knuts, 148 Skype, 62 slavery, 11, 29, 32 social media, 49–50, 125, 161–70, 173, 176, 199, 207, 208, 223 Socrates, 29 Solon, 28 Somalia, 42, 116 Sophocles, 29 Sopko, John, 137 Sousse attacks (2015), 131 South Africa, 27, 94, 157, 189 South Korea, 17, 27, 112, 152, 156, 218 Soviet Union (1922–91), 1, 22–3, 35–6, 37–50, 61, 64, 82, 121, 147–8, 150, 160, 192–4, 201, 204, 206–7 Spain, 218 Sparta, 28, 29 St John’s College, Oxford, 202 Stalin, Joseph, 23 Stanford University, 171 State Department, 11, 15, 54, 202 state power, 27 Statkevich, Mikalai, 61–2, 65, 222 Stewart, Jon, 53 Sting (Gordon Sumner), 140 Stockholm Syndrome, 199 Sudan, 206 Sukondhapatipak, Werachon 198 Sundaravej, Samak, 197 Super PACs, 185 Supreme Court, US, 185, 188 Sweden, 92, 220 269 INDEX Switzerland, 118, 140, 205 Syria, 78, 120, 131, 198, 208, 217, 224, 225 Szájer, József, 151 Tahrir Square, Cairo, 10, 13, 163–4 Taiwan, 27, 218 Taliban, 18, 52, 56, 71, 138 tame democracy promotion, 59 Taming of Democracy Assistance, The (Bush), 59 Tarakhel Mohammadi, 70–1 Tasmania, Australia, 153 Tasting and Grumbling, 197 Tea Party, 185 terrorism, 11, 16, 18, 19, 20, 26, 52–3, 55, 63, 70, 78, 97, 100, 101, 131, 156, 201, 234 Tetra Tech, 138 Thailand, 3, 19, 27, 154, 164–5, 196–206, 212, 221, 223–4, 253 1973 pro-democracy uprising, 199 1976 student protests, 199 1982 launch of Cobra Gold exercises with US, 201 2003 troops dispatched to Iraq, 201 2006 coup d’état, 196, 197 2008 judicial coup, 196, 197, 202, 253 2010 protests and crackdown, 202 2014 NCPO coup d’état, 164, 196–206, 221; junta gives out free haircuts, 154; rail deal with China, 203; junta releases LINE “values stickers”, 164–5 2015 man arrested for insulting Tongdaeng, 165 270 2016 constitutional referendum, 197, 223 Thirty Tyrants, 29 Thucydides, 28, 29 time horizon, 55 Tobruk, Libya, 77 Togo, 170, 177–8 Tolkien, John Ronald Reuel, 20, 161–3, 165, 176 Tongdaeng, 165 torture, 11, 28, 43, 48, 52, 124–7, 132, 139, 141, 222, 224 Trans-Pacific Partnership, 153 Transnistria, 196 transparency, 26, 82, 170, 174, 212, 218 Tripoli, Libya, 77 Trojan War, 22 Trump, Donald, 1, 20, 25, 79, 178, 180, 187, 188, 204, 205 Tudeh Party, 41, 232 Tunisia, 12–13, 17, 18, 19, 27, 65, 77, 123–33, 142, 143, 144, 155, 156, 209, 218, 221, 224–5 1987 coup d’état; Ben Ali comes to power, 124, 126, 129 1991 Barraket Essahel affair, 123, 126, 224 1995 EU Association Agreement, 155 2010 self-immolation of Bouazizi; protests begin, 12, 126, 224 2011 ousting of Ben Ali, 13, 124–6, 130 2014 assembly rejects bill on political exclusion, 128; law on rehabilitation and recognition of torture victims, 224; presidential election, 130 2015 Bardo Museum and Sousse attacks, 131, 156; National INDEX Dialogue Quartet awarded Nobel Peace Prize, 18, 131 Tunisia’s Call, 131 Turkey, 20, 27, 39, 149, 161–3, 165, 176 Turkmenistan, 11, 25, 26, 138, 144, 154 Twitter, 49, 162, 163, 166, 168, 176, 199, 208 U2, 92 Udon Thani, Thailand, 201 Uganda, 166, 176 Ukraine, 2, 27, 64, 65, 171, 198, 207, 213 Umbrella Movement (2014), 168, 176, 221 United Arab Emirates (UAE), 229 United Kingdom (UK), 1–3, 31, 33, 38, 43–4, 56, 58, 71–2, 92, 94–5, 126, 129, 132–3, 156, 166, 171–2, 180, 189, 202, 214 1707 Acts of Union, 31 1947 Churchill’s statement on democracy, 22, 190, 215 1951 Mossadegh nationalizes Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, 38 1987 Ferjani arrives in exile, 126 1999 European Parliament election, 180 2003 invasion of Iraq, 72–3 2009 OxfordGirl tweets on Iranian Green Revolution, 166; Blair meets with Kagame, 6, 92 2011 intervention in Libya, 77; Kagame appears on BBC radio; threat against Mugenzi, 94–5, 189 2012 launch of FixMyStreet, 171 2016 EU membership referendum, 1 United Nations (UN), 104, 105, 106, 108–10, 118, 130, 132, 140, 152 United States (US) 1787 Constitutional Convention, 31 1812 redrawing of Massachusetts senate election districts, 181–2 1869 Wyoming grants women vote, 33 1870 non-white men receive vote, 33 1913 Seventeenth Amendment enacted, 32 1917 Wilson’s “safe for democracy” speech, 35 1918 Wilson’s Fourteen Points, 35 1920 women receive vote, 33 1924 protections to ensure Native American voting rights, 33 1936 presidential election, 174 1948 CIA intervention in Italian election, 98 1953 Operation Ajax; Mossadegh ousted in Iran, 38–42, 98, 208 1960 plot to assassinate Lumumba with poisoned toothpaste, 43 1961 Foreign Assistance Act, 14–15 1962 Saudi Arabia pressured into abolishing slavery, 11; Cuban Missile Crisis, 50 1963 Kennedy’s Berlin speech, 35; assassination of Kennedy, 192 271 INDEX 1965 protections to ensure minority voting rights, 33 1973 ousting of Allende in Chile, 47 1982 launch of Cobra Gold exercises with Thailand, 201 1987 Reagan’s Berlin speech, 35; aid payments to Egypt begin, 14 1988 Reagan’s “city on a hill” speech, 10, 35, 179, 188, 189 1990 intervention in Nicaraguan election, 98 1991 launch of Operation Desert Storm in Iraq, 156 1992 presidential and House of Representatives elections, 183–4 1993 Clinton assumes office, 115; Battle of Mogadishu, 116 1994 launch of Operation Uphold Democracy in Haiti, 116; Cessna crash at White House, 116; Cédras given “golden parachute”, 116–17 1997 USAID Cambodia claims to have “exceeded expectations”, 59 1999 Pakistan urged to return to democracy, 52, 53 2001 September 11 attacks, 18, 52–3, 55, 70; cooperation with Pakistan begins, 52–3, 55; invasion of Afghanistan, 70, 71, 84, 98 2002 Bush announces new approach for Israel/Palestine conflict, 99 2003 invasion of Iraq, 63, 72–3, 77, 84, 98, 156, 201, 234 272 2004 Belarus Democracy Act, 63, 194 2005 Senate vote on armorpiercing bullet ban, 187; intervention in Palestinian election campaign, 99–104 2006 Musharraf appears on The Daily Show, 53 2008 Afifi arrives in exile, 163, 247; Rice’s visit to Libya, 76 2009 Obama assumes office, 55, 57; Clinton describes Mubaraks as “friends of my family”, 6; Obama’s Cairo speech, 9–10, 218; military helicopter drops ballot boxes in Afghanistan, 70; Kagame receives Clinton Global Citizen award, 92 2010 VOA announces “citizen journalism” app for Iran, 135, 145; Citizens United v.
The Intelligence Trap: Revolutionise Your Thinking and Make Wiser Decisions by David Robson
active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Atul Gawande, availability heuristic, cognitive bias, corporate governance, correlation coefficient, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, deliberate practice, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, Flynn Effect, framing effect, fundamental attribution error, illegal immigration, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, knowledge economy, lone genius, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nelson Mandela, obamacare, pattern recognition, price anchoring, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, theory of mind, traveling salesman, ultimatum game, Y2K, Yom Kippur War
It would be foolish to read too much into post-hoc analyses – after all, people would naturally become more closed-minded during times of heightened tension.35 But lab experiments have found that people scoring lower on these measures are more likely to resort to aggressive tactics. And the idea does find further support in an examination of the US’s most important political crises in the last 100 years, including John F. Kennedy’s handling of the Cuban missile crisis, and Robert Nixon’s dealings with the Cambodian invasion of 1970 and the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Textual analyses of the speeches, letters and official statements made by presidents and their Secretaries of State show that the level of open-minded thinking consistently predicted the later outcome of the negotiations, with JFK scoring highly for his successful handling of the Cuban missile crisis, and Dwight Eisenhower for the way he dealt with the two Taiwan Strait conflicts between Mainland China and Taiwan in the 1950s.36 In more recent politics, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel is famous for her ‘analytical detachment’, as she famously listens to all perspectives before making a decision; one senior government official describes her as ‘the best analyst of any given situation that I could imagine’.
Beyond: Our Future in Space by Chris Impey
3D printing, Admiral Zheng, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, AltaVista, Berlin Wall, Buckminster Fuller, butterfly effect, California gold rush, carbon-based life, Charles Lindbergh, Colonization of Mars, cosmic abundance, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, discovery of DNA, Doomsday Clock, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Eratosthenes, Haight Ashbury, Hyperloop, I think there is a world market for maybe five computers, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Johannes Kepler, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, life extension, low earth orbit, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mars Rover, mutually assured destruction, Oculus Rift, operation paperclip, out of africa, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, phenotype, private space industry, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Rubik’s Cube, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Searching for Interstellar Communications, Silicon Valley, skunkworks, Skype, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, supervolcano, technological singularity, telepresence, telerobotics, the medium is the message, the scientific method, theory of mind, There's no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home - Ken Olsen, wikimedia commons, X Prize, Yogi Berra
Gemini spacecraft carried two astronauts and the missions tested docking technology, practiced working outside a spacecraft, and orbited long enough to mimic a trip to the Moon and back. All the early Apollo crews were veterans of the Mercury and Gemini programs. America was hopeful that the two superpowers might collaborate rather than duplicate the vast effort required for a race to the Moon. After stepping back from the brink following the Cuban missile crisis, Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev had developed a mutual understanding. In 1963, in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Kennedy proposed a joint space effort. Khrushchev initially rejected the overture but was poised to accept it when Kennedy was assassinated in November 1963. Even Kennedy was hedging his bets, though, wavering between cooperation and competition.
., 149–50, 164, 185, 201, 252 climate change, 197–98, 286 Clinton, Bill, 154 cloning, 251 Clynes, Manfred, 205 Cocconi, Giuseppe, 187 Colbert, Stephen, 74, 117 Cold War, 35–39, 41–43, 50, 55, 73, 76, 139, 145, 197 Columbia, disintegration of, 55, 56, 107 Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report, 107 Columbus, Christopher, 243 comets, 183 Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS), 275 Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 145 communication: with alien species, 52, 189, 234–35, 238, 239, 246, 253, 255, 259 by digital data transmission, 66–67, 77–80 latency and, 178 space technology in, 153–54 Compaq, 95 computation, future technology of, 258–62 confinement, psychological impact of, 169–70 Congress, US: legislation in, 78, 144 on space programs, 38, 41, 75, 156, 158 consciousness, simulation of, 259–61 conservation biology, 201 conspiracy theories, 238, 240 Constellation program, 104 Contact (film), 236–37, 242 Contact (Sagan), 236 contraception, 200 Copernicus, 19, 20, 127 Coriolis force, Coriolis effect, 152 cosmic rays, 115, 160, 160, 164, 167, 168, 204 cosmism, 27 cosmonauts, 141 disasters of, 108 records set by, 115 selection criteria for, 74 Cosmos 1, 184 cosmos, cosmology, ancient concepts of, 17–20 Cosmos Studios, 184 Cosmotheoros (Huygens), 163 counterfactual thinking, 14 Cronkite, Walter, 74 cryogenic suspension, 250–51 cryptobiosis, 123 cryptography, 231, 291 Cuban missile crisis, 41–42 CubeSat, 184–85 Cultural Revolution, Chinese, 141–42 Curiosity rover, 165, 167, 176, 181 cybernetics, 206–7 Cyborg Foundation, 288 cyborgs (cybernetic organisms), 204–8, 288 Cygnus capsule, 100 cytosine, 6 dark energy, 256 d’Arlandes, Marquis, 68 DARPANET, 78 Darwin, Charles, 265 “Darwin” (machine), 227 Death Valley, 118–19 deceleration, 222, 223 DeepSea Challenger sub, 120 deep space, 126–29 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), 78, 224 Defense Department, US, 38, 78, 90, 153 De Garis, Hugo, 258 Delta rockets, 72, 113 Delta-V, 111 Democritus, 19 Destination Mir (reality show), 75 Diamandis, Peter, 90–94, 97–98, 147, 156 diamonds, 131, 231 Dick, Philip K., 204–5 Digital Equipment Corporation, 213 DNA, 6–7, 9, 19, 189, 202, 228, 251, 263, 265, 266 Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep (Dick), 205 dogs: brains of, 13 in scientific research, 251 in space travel, 40, 47 Dolly (sheep), 251 Doomsday Clock, 197–98, 246, 286 dopamine, 10, 98 Doppler method, exoplanet detection and characterization by, 127, 128, 129, 130, 133, 215 Doppler shift, 127 Dora-Mittelbau concentration camp, 33 Downey, Robert, Jr., 95 drag, in flight, 68, 83, 223 Drake, Frank, 187–88, 235, 237 Drake equation, 188, 189, 233–35, 237, 241, 243, 244, 253, 291–92 DRD4 alleles, 7R mutation in, 10–12, 11, 15, 98 Drexler, Eric, 226 drones, 180–81 Druyan, Ann, 184 Duke, Charles, 45 Dunn, Tony, 225 Dyson, Freeman, 226–27, 253 Dyson sphere, 253–54, 254 Earth: atmosphere of, 8, 70–71, 70 early impacts on, 50, 172 geological evolution of, 172 as one of many worlds, 17–20 planets similar to, 122, 124–26, 129–33, 224, 235 projected demise of, 197–98 as round, 19 as suited for human habitation, 118–22, 121, 234 as viewed from space, 45, 53, 121, 185, 270 Earth Return Vehicle, 169 “Earthrise” (Anders), 270 Earth similarity index, 215–16 eBay, 79, 95 Economist, The, 105 ecosystem, sealed and self-contained, 192–97, 193, 285 Eiffel Tower, 27, 149 Einstein, Albert, 220, 228, 256 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 36–39, 73, 79 electric cars, 96 electric solar sails, 186 electromagnetic waves, 186 e-mail, 78 embryo transport, 251 Enceladus, 177, 182, 227 potential habitability of, 125, 278 Encyclopædia Britannica, 95, 283 Endangered Species Act (1973), 201 energy: aliens’ use of, 190 civilizations characterized by use of, 252–57, 254, 258 dark, 256 declining growth in world consumption of, 257 Einstein’s equation for, 220 production and efficiency of, 219–24, 220 as requirement for life, 123–24 in rocket equation, 110 Engines of Creation (Drexler), 226 environmental disasters, 245 environmental protection: as applied to space, 147 movement for, 45, 235, 263, 270 Epicureans, 18 Epsilon Eridani, 187 Eratosthenes, 19 ethane, 52, 125 Ethernet, 213 eukaryotes, 172 Euripides, 18 Europa, 52, 97–98 potential habitability of, 125, 125, 161, 278 Europa Clipper mission, 98 Europe: economic depression in, 28 population dispersion into, 7–8, 11, 15 roots of technological development in, 23–24 European Southern Observatory, 133 European Space Agency, 159, 178–79 European Union, bureaucracy of, 106 Eustace, Alan, 120, 272 Evenki people, 119–20 Everest, Mount, 120 evolution: genetic variation in, 6, 203, 265 geological, 172 of human beings, 16–17 off-Earth, 203–4 evolutionary divergence, 201–4 exoplanets: Earth-like, 129–33, 215–18 extreme, 131–32 formation of, 215, 216 incidence and detection of, 126–33, 128, 233 exploration: as basic urge of human nature, 7–12, 109, 218, 261–63 imagination and, 262–63 explorer gene, 86 Explorer I, 38 explosives, early Chinese, 21–23 extinction, 201–2 extraterrestrials, see aliens, extraterrestrial extra-vehicular activities, 179 extremophiles, 122–23 eyeborg, 205–6 Falcon Heavy rocket, 114 Falcon rockets, 96, 97, 101, 184 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), 82, 93, 105–7, 154 Fédération Aéronautique Internationale, 272 Felix and Félicette (cats), 48–49 Fermi, Enrico, 239–41 Fermilab, 254 “Fermi question,” 240–41, 243 Feynman, Richard, 179–80, 230, 270, 280 F4 Phantom jet fighter, 82 51 Peg (star), 126, 133 55 Cancri (star), 131 F-117 Nighthawk, 69 fine-tuning, 256, 294 fire arrows, 23, 68 fireworks, 21–24, 31 flagella, 180 flight: first human, 68 first powered, 69 principles of, 67–73 stability in, 82–83 “Fly Me to the Moon,” 45 food: energy produced by, 219, 220 in sealed ecosystem, 194–95 for space travel, 115–16, 159, 170 Forward, Robert, 223 Foundation series (Asimov), 94 founder effect, 202–3 Fountains of Paradise, The (Clarke), 149 France, 48, 68, 90 Frankenstein monster, 206, 259 Fresnel lens, 223 From Earth to the Moon (Verne), 183 fuel-to-payload ratio, see rocket equation Fukuyama, Francis, 207 Fuller, Buckminster, 151, 192 fullerenes, 151 Futron corporation, 155 Future of Humanity Institute, 245 “futurology,” 248–52, 249 Fyodorov, Nikolai, 26, 27 Gagarin, Yuri, 40–41, 41, 66, 269 Gaia hypothesis, 286 galaxies: incidence and detection of, 235 number of, 255 see also Milky Way galaxy Galileo, 49–50, 183, 270 Gandhi, Mahatma, 147 Garn, Jake, 114 Garn scale, 114 Garriott, Richard, 92 gas-giant planets, 125, 126–29 Gauss, Karl Friedrich, 238 Gazenko, Oleg, 47 Gemini program, 42 Genesis, Book of, 148–49 genetic anthropology, 6 genetic code, 5–7, 123 genetic diversity, 201–3 genetic drift, 203 genetic engineering, 245, 249 genetic markers, 6–7 genetics, human, 6–7, 9–12, 120, 201–4 Genographic Project, 7, 265 genome sequencing, 93, 202, 292 genotype, 6 “adventure,” 11–12, 98 geocentrism, 17, 19–20, 49 geodesic domes, 192 geological evolution, 172 George III, king of England, 147 German Aerospace Center, 178 Germany, Germans, 202, 238 rocket development by, 28, 30–34, 141 in World War II, 30–35 g-forces, 46–49, 48, 89, 111, 114 GJ 504b (exoplanet), 131 GJ 1214b (exoplanet), 132 glaciation, 172 Glenn Research Center, 219 global communications industry, 153–54 Global Positioning System (GPS), 144, 153–54 God, human beings in special relationship with, 20 Goddard, Robert, 28–32, 29, 36, 76, 78, 81–82, 94, 268 Goddard Space Flight Center, 178 gods, 20 divine intervention of, 18 Golden Fleece awards, 238 Goldilocks zone, 122, 126, 131 Gonzalez, Antonin, 215 Goodall, Jane, 14 Google, 80, 92, 185, 272, 275 Lunar X Prize, 161 Gopnik, Alison, 10, 13 Grasshopper, 101 gravity: centrifugal force in, 26, 114, 150 in flight, 68 of Mars, 181, 203 Newton’s theory of, 25, 267 and orbits, 25, 114–15, 127, 128, 149–50, 267 in rocket equation, 110 of Sun, 183 waves, 255 see also g-forces; zero gravity Gravity, 176 gravity, Earth’s: first object to leave, 40, 51 human beings who left, 45 as obstacle for space travel, 21, 105, 148 as perfect for human beings, 118 simulation of, 168–69 Great Art of Artillery, The (Siemienowicz), 267 Great Britain, 86, 106, 206, 227 “Great Filter,” 244–47 Great Leap Forward, 15–16 “Great Silence, The,” of SETI, 236–39, 240–41, 243–44 Greece, ancient, 17–19, 163 greenhouse effect, 171, 173 greenhouse gasses, 132, 278 Griffin, Michael, 57, 147, 285–86 grinders (biohackers), 207 Grissom, Gus, 43 guanine, 6 Guggenheim, Daniel, 81, 268 Guggenheim, Harry, 81 Guggenheim Foundation, 30, 81–82, 268 gunpowder, 21–24, 267 Guth, Alan, 257 habitable zone, 122, 124–26, 130–31, 132, 188, 241, 246, 277–78, 286, 291 defined, 124 Hadfield, Chris, 142 hair, Aboriginal, 8 “Halfway to Pluto” (Pettit), 273 Hanson, Robin, 247 haptic technology, 178 Harbisson, Neil, 205, 288 Harvard Medical School, 90 Hawking, Stephen, 88, 93, 198, 259 HD 10180 (star), 127 Heinlein, Robert, 177 Heisenberg compensator, 229 Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle, 229–30 heliocentrism, 19 helium, 68 helium 3, 161–62 Herschel, William, 163 Higgs particle, 256 High Frontier, 146–47 Hilton, Paris, 88, 101–2 Hilton hotels, 145 Hinduism, 20 Hiroshima, 222 Hitler, Adolf, 32, 34 Hope, Dennis M., 145, 147 Horowitz, Paul, 237–38 hot Jupiters, 127–28, 130 Hubble Space Telescope, 56–57, 65, 218, 225 Huffington, Arianna, 92 human beings: as adaptable to challenging environments, 118–22 as alien simulations, 260–61, 260 creative spirit of, 73, 248 early global migration of, 5–12, 9, 11, 15, 19, 118, 120, 186, 202, 218, 262, 265 Earth as perfectly suited for, 118–22, 121 exploration intrinsic to nature of, 7–12, 109, 218, 261–63 first appearance of, 5, 15, 172, 234 impact of evolutionary divergence on, 201–4 as isolated species, 241–42 as lone intelligent life, 241, 243 merger of machines and, see cyborgs minimal viable population in, 201–2, 251 off-Earth, 203–4, 215, 250–52 requirements of habitability for, 122, 124–26, 129, 130–31 sense of self of, 232, 261 space as inhospitable to, 53–54, 114–17, 121, 123 space exploration by robots vs., 53–57, 66, 98, 133, 161, 177–79, 179, 208, 224–28 space travel as profound and sublime experience for, 45, 53, 117, 122 speculation on future of, 93, 94, 204, 207–8, 215, 244–47, 248–63, 249 surpassed by technology, 258–59 threats to survival of, 94, 207–8, 244–47, 250, 259–62, 286, 293 timeline for past and future of, 248–50, 249 transforming moment for, 258–59 Huntsville, Ala., US Space and Rocket Center in, 48 Huygens, Christiaan, 163 Huygens probe, 53 hybrid cars, 96 hydrogen, 110, 156, 159, 161, 187, 219, 222 hydrogen bomb, 36 hydrosphere, 173 hyperloop aviation concept, 95 hypothermia, 251 hypothetical scenarios, 15–16 IBM, 213 Icarus Interstellar, 224 ice: on Europa, 125 on Mars, 163–65, 227 on Moon, 159–60 ice ages, 7–8 ice-penetrating robot, 98 IKAROS spacecraft, 184 imagination, 10, 14, 20 exploration and, 261–63 immortality, 259 implants, 206–7 inbreeding, 201–3 India, 159, 161 inflatable modules, 101–2 inflation theory, 255–57, 255 information, processing and storage of, 257–60 infrared telescopes, 190 Inspiration Mars, 170–71 Institute for Advanced Concepts, 280 insurance, for space travel, 106–7 International Academy of Astronautics, 152 International Geophysical Year (1957–1958), 37 International Institute of Air and Space Law, 199 International MicroSpace, 90 International Scientific Lunar Observatory, 157 International Space Station, 55, 64–65, 64, 71, 75, 91, 96, 100, 102, 142, 143, 144, 151, 153, 154, 159, 178–79, 179, 185, 272, 275 living conditions on, 116–17 as staging point, 148 supply runs to, 100–101, 104 International Space University, 90 International Traffic in Arms Regulation (ITAR), 105–6, 144 Internet: Congressional legislation on, 78, 144 development of, 76–77, 77, 94, 95, 271 erroneous predictions about, 213–14 limitations of, 66–67 robotics and, 206 space travel compared to, 76–80, 77, 80 Internet Service Providers (ISPs), 78 interstellar travel, 215–18 energy technology for, 219–24 four approaches to, 251–52 scale model for, 219 Intrepid rovers, 165 Inuit people, 120 Io, 53, 177 property rights on, 145 “iron curtain,” 35 Iron Man, 95 isolation, psychological impact of, 169–70 Jacob’s Ladder, 149 Jade Rabbit (“Yutu”), 139, 143, 161 Japan, 161, 273 Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), 184 Jefferson, Thomas, 224 Jemison, Mae, 224 jet engines, 69–70 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 141 Johnson, Lyndon, 38, 42, 45, 158, 269 Johnson Space Center, 76, 104, 179, 206, 229, 269 see also Mission Control Jones, Stephanie Tubbs, 74 Joules per kilogram (MJ/kg), 219–20, 222 Journalist in Space program, 74 “junk” DNA, 10, 266 Juno probe, 228 Jupiter, 126, 127, 177, 217, 270 distance from Earth to, 50 moons of, 97, 125, 125 probes to, 51–52, 228 as uninhabitable, 125 Justin (robot), 178 Kaku, Michio, 253 Karash, Yuri, 65 Kardashev, Nikolai, 253 Kardashev scale, 253, 254, 258 Kármán line, 70, 70, 101 Kennedy, John F., 41–43, 45 Kepler, Johannes, 183 Kepler’s law, 127 Kepler spacecraft and telescope, 128, 128, 129–31, 218, 278 Khrushchev, Nikita, 42, 47 Kickstarter, 184 Killian, James, 38 Kline, Nathan, 205 Knight, Pete, 71 Komarov, Vladimir, 43, 108 Korean War, 141 Korolev, Sergei, 35, 37 Kraft, Norbert, 200 Krikalev, Sergei, 115 Kunza language, 119 Kurzweil, Ray, 94, 207, 259 Laika (dog), 47, 65, 269 Laliberté, Guy, 75 landings, challenges of, 51, 84–85, 170 Lang, Fritz, 28, 268 language: of cryptography, 291 emergence of, 15, 16 of Orcas, 190 in reasoning, 13 Lansdorp, Bas, 170–71, 198–99, 282 lasers, 223, 224, 225–26, 239 pulsed, 190, 243 last common ancestor, 6, 123, 265 Late Heavy Bombardment, 172 latency, 178 lava tubes, 160 legislation, on space, 39, 78, 90, 144, 145–47, 198–200 Le Guin, Ursula K., 236–37 Leonov, Alexey, 55 L’Garde Inc., 284 Licancabur volcano, 119 Licklider, Joseph Carl Robnett “Lick,” 76–78 life: appearance and evolution on Earth of, 172 artificial, 258 detection of, 216–18 extension of, 26, 207–8, 250–51, 259 extraterrestrial, see aliens, extraterrestrial intelligent, 190, 235, 241, 243, 258 requirements of habitability for, 122–26, 125, 129, 131–33, 241, 256–57 lifetime factor (L), 234–335 lift, in flight, 68–70, 83 lift-to-drag ratio, 83 light: from binary stars, 126 as biomarker, 217 Doppler shift of, 127 momentum and energy from, 183 speed of, 178, 228–29, 250, 251 waves, 66 Lindbergh, Charles, 30, 81–82, 90–91, 268 “living off the land,” 166, 200 logic, 14, 18 Long March, 141 Long March rockets, 113, 142, 143 Long Now Foundation, 293 Los Alamos, N.
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond
clean water, colonial rule, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, Donner party, European colonialism, Exxon Valdez, illegal immigration, job satisfaction, means of production, new economy, North Sea oil, Piper Alpha, polynesian navigation, profit motive, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, Stewart Brand, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transcontinental railway, unemployed young men
In early 1961 they fell into poor group decision-making practices that led to their disastrous decision to launch the Bay of Pigs invasion, which failed ignominiously, leading to the much more dangerous Cuban Missile Crisis. As Irving Janis pointed out in his book Groupthink, the Bay of Pigs deliberations exhibited numerous characteristics that tend to lead to bad decisions, such as a premature sense of ostensible unanimity, suppression of personal doubts and of expression of contrary views, and the group leader (Kennedy) guiding the discussion in such a way as to minimize disagreement. The subsequent Cuban Missile Crisis deliberations, again involving Kennedy and many of the same advisors, avoided those characteristics and instead proceeded along lines associated with productive decision-making, such as Kennedy ordering participants to think skeptically, allowing discussion to be freewheeling, having subgroups meet separately, and occasionally leaving the room to avoid his overly influencing the discussion himself.
Irving Janis, Groupthink (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1983, revised 2nd ed.) explores the subtle group dynamics that contributed to the success or failure of deliberations involving recent American presidents and their advisors. Janis’s case studies are of the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion, the American army’s crossing of the 38th parallel in Korea in 1950, American’s non-preparation for Japan’s 1941 Pearl Harbor attack, America’s escalation of the Vietnam War from 1964 to 1967, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and America’s adoption of the Marshall Plan in 1947. Garrett Hardin’s classic and often-cited article “The tragedy of the commons” appeared in Science 162:1243-1248 (1968). Mancur Olson applies the metaphor of stationary bandits and roving bandits to Chinese warlords and other extractive agents in “Dictatorship, democracy, and development” (American Political Science Review 87:567-576 (1993)).
Tikopia and tragedy of the commons Bougainville copper mine BP (British Petroleum) Buffalo Creek, West Virginia Burundi: genocide in independence of business, see big business Cahokia, collapse of Canada: Franklin Expedition in Inuit in logging in Native Americans in settlements of Canela y Lázaro, Miguel cannibalism: of Anasazi anthropologists’ objections to of Donner Party on Easter Island in Leningrad siege on Mangareva on Pitcairn and warfare carbon isotope analyses carbon sink Carson, Rachel Catherwood, Frederick CFCs, harmful effects of Chardón, Carlos chemical industry chestnut blight Chevron Corporation Chevron Niugini Chevron Texaco Chicago Zoological Society Chile: and Easter Island fishing in mining in wine palm of wood imports from China agriculture climate change in conquering Nature in Cultural Revolution in cultural values of deforestation in development projects in economic growth of emigration from environmental problems of First World goals of food in foreign investment in geography of global connectedness of Grain-to-Green program grassland in Great Leap Forward in health problems in land ownership in map natural disasters in Olympic Games in per-capita environmental impact of political unity in population control in population of shifting environmental thinking in species diversity in top-down decision-making in trade with warlords in water diversion project in western, development of chlorofluorocarbons Christianity, exclusivity of chronic wasting disease (CWD) Churchill, Winston Clark Fork River Superfund site Clean Water Act Clearcut Controversy (Montana) climate change and forest fires in global warming in tree ring studies and water levels Club of Rome coal mining collapse: comparative method of study of complex societies in five-point framework of past vs. modern societies and power cycling use of term Colorado, mining in Colorado River, diversion of Columbus, Christopher comparative studies consumer influence Cook, Capt. James Cook, John coral reefs Cortés, Hernán Cristino, Claudio Cuba Cuban Missile Crisis Daly, Marcus dams Däniken, Erich von Davis, John decision-making, see group decision-making deforestation and agriculture in Australia in China clear-cutting comparative studies of consequences for society and drought of Easter Island and erosion exporting to other nations and extinction of forests government regulation of of Japan and leased logging rights long-term thinking in in Maya sites in Montana of New Guinea in Norse Greenland social licence to operate in in Southwestern U.S.
Global Catastrophic Risks by Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Cirkovic
affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, anthropic principle, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, availability heuristic, Bill Joy: nanobots, Black Swan, carbon-based life, cognitive bias, complexity theory, computer age, coronavirus, corporate governance, cosmic microwave background, cosmological constant, cosmological principle, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, death of newspapers, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, distributed generation, Doomsday Clock, Drosophila, endogenous growth, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, feminist movement, framing effect, friendly AI, Georg Cantor, global pandemic, global village, Gödel, Escher, Bach, hindsight bias, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, Kevin Kelly, Kuiper Belt, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, P = NP, peak oil, phenotype, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reversible computing, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, scientific worldview, Singularitarianism, social intelligence, South China Sea, strong AI, superintelligent machines, supervolcano, technological singularity, technoutopianism, The Coming Technological Singularity, Tunguska event, twin studies, uranium enrichment, Vernor Vinge, War on Poverty, Westphalian system, Y2K
Boris Yelstin became the first Russian president to ever have the 'nuclear suitcase' open in front of him. He had just a few minutes to decide if he should push the button that would launch a barrage of nuclear missiles. Thankfully, he concluded that his radars were in error. The suitcase was closed. Several other incidents have been reported in which the world, allegedly, was teetering on the brink of nuclear holocaust. At one point during the Cuban missile crisis, for example, President Kennedy reportedly estimated the probability of a nuclear war between the United States and the U S S R to be 'somewhere between one out of three and even'. To reduce the risks, Cirincione argues, we must work to resolve regional conflicts, support and strengthen the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty - one ofthe most successful security pacts in history - and move towards the abolition of nuclear weapons.
To survive any appreciable time, we need to drive down each risk to nearly zero. ' Fairly good' is not good enough to last another million years. 342 Global catastrophic risks It seems like an unfair challenge. Such competence is not historically typical of human institutions, no matter how hard they try. For decades, the United States and the U S S R avoided nuclear war, but not perfectly; there were close calls, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. If we postulate that future minds exhibit the same mixture of foolishness and wisdom, the same mixture of heroism and selfishness, as the minds we read about in history books then the game of existential risk is already over; it was lost from the beginning. We might survive for another decade, even another century, but not another million years. But the human mind is not the limit of the possible.
Columbia University scholar Kenneth Waltz argues, ' Kargil showed once again that deterrence does not firmly protect disputed areas but does limit the extent of the violence. Indian rear admiral Raja Menon put the larger point simply: "The Kargil crisis demonstrated that the subcontinental nuclear threshold probably lies territorially in the heartland of both countries, and not on the Kashmir cease-fire line'". 25 It would be reaching too far to say the Kargil was South Asia's Cuban missile crisis, but since the near-war, both nations have established hotlines and other confidence-building measures (such as notification of military exercises) , exchanged cordial visits of state leaders, and opened transportation 23 Toon, O.B., Robock, A., Turco, R.P., Bardeen, C., Oman, L., and Stenchikov, G.L. (2007). Consequences of regional·scale nuclear conflicts. Science, 3 1 5 , 1 224-1225. 24 Ibid., p. 1 1823. 25 Sagan, S.D. and Waltz, K.N. (2003).
Nuclear War and Environmental Catastrophe by Noam Chomsky, Laray Polk
American Legislative Exchange Council, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, energy security, Howard Zinn, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Malacca Straits, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks
Kennedy Confronts Communist Revolution in Latin America (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1999), 137. According to Graham Allison: “The U.S. air strike and invasion that were scheduled for the third week of the confrontation would likely have triggered a nuclear response against American ships and troops, and perhaps even Miami. The resulting war might have led to the deaths of 100 million Americans and over 100 million Russians.” “The Cuban Missile Crisis at 50: Lessons for U.S. Foreign Policy Today,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2012. 109 National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 281, s.v. “Documents 8A-D: DEFCON 3 during the October War.” 110 The CIA speculates Soviet fears of an imminent attack may have been a response to US actions launched a few months into Reagan’s first term: air and naval probes near Soviet borders that sought vulnerabilities in early warning systems; fleet exercises in proximity to sensitive Soviet military and industrial sites and operations that simulated surprise naval attacks; radar-jamming and transmission of false radar signals; submarine and antisubmarine aircraft conducting maneuvers in areas where the Soviet Navy stationed its nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines; and simulated bombing runs over a Soviet military installation in the Kuril Island chain.
Culture works: the political economy of culture by Richard Maxwell
1960s counterculture, American ideology, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, big-box store, business process, commoditize, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global village, Howard Rheingold, income inequality, informal economy, intermodal, late capitalism, Marshall McLuhan, medical malpractice, Network effects, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, refrigerator car, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, structural adjustment programs, talking drums, telemarketer, the built environment, Thorstein Veblen, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban renewal, Victor Gruen, Whole Earth Catalog, women in the workforce
Even after Abstract Expressionism had been superseded by later movements such as pop and op art, the avant-garde and the discourse that surrounded it continued to be useful to government, corporate, and art-world institutions interested in promoting any number of freedoms, including freedom from totalitarianism, individual freedom, artistic freedom, freedom of expression, freedom of speech, freedom to consume, freedom from government regulation—even international free trade. 30 Art Corporate Patronage in the 1960s and the 11 Pop Artists Portfolios Far from subsiding, Cold War tensions escalated after the 1950s, with the need for cultural symbols of American freedom and superiority continuing to be a priority well into the 1960s and beyond. The Cuban Revolution in 1959 was soon followed by the Bay of Pigs ﬁasco, the construction of the Berlin Wall, the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1964 detonation of an atom bomb in China, and the Tonkin Gulf Resolution. Along with these developments came growing anxieties within government and corporate communities about the spread of communism and about the potential loss of U.S. foreign markets and capital investments. Indeed, it is the pervasiveness of corporate ideology in the discourse of arts patronage and cultural policy during the 1960s that is so striking.
See also Commodiﬁcation; Commoditization Commodiﬁcation, 73, 148, 197, 210–18, 242 Commoditization, 113 Companhia do Pagôde, 113–14 Computers, 2, 123–25, 185, 198–207, 216–18, 243; cost of, 199; environmental costs, 202; software industry, 238 Conglomerates, 178, 181, 183, 226, 231–32 Consumer movement, 84, 90–96, 100, 187 Consumers Union, 90 Cookies, 216 Copyright term extension, 234 Corporate welfare, 171–72, 176 Corporation and the Arts, The, 33 Corporation for Public Broadcasting, 182 Crane, Philip, 46 Cuban Missile Crisis, 31 254 Cultural industries, 2, 6, 134–35, 228–31, 242–43 Cultural policy, 7–9, 16–20, 24, 28–32, 39–43, 60, 64, 118, 171–72, 175, 187–91, 218–20, 240–45 Culture: deﬁnitions, 1–4 Curtin, Michael, and Thomas Streeter, 225–49 D’Acci, Julie, 245 Dança da Garrafa, 111–13 Dança do Robó, 111 Davis, Susan G., 163–96 Debartolo Group, 178 De/Cipherin’, 17, 108–28 DeGeneres, Ellen, 232, 238 Deindustrialization, 171, 190, 235 Deja.com, 215 Democracy, 25, 27, 33, 35–38, 45, 47, 93, 98, 102, 170, 174 De Montebello, Philippe, 48 Deregulation, 141, 231 Diaper fallacy, 243 Dine, Jim, 31, 37, 39 Disney, 136, 140, 145, 181–82, 210, 212–15, 233; Club Disney, 181–82; Disney Store, 182; Disney Store Online, 212 Dissent, 28, 49, 170, 226 Diversity, 79, 175, 219, 225–28, 244 Do-it-yourself: the metaphysic of, 13–16 Dominican Republic, 176 Dondero, George A., 28 Drum talk, 121–22 East Asia, 3 Ebersol, Dick, president of NBC sports, 147; and feminization of TV sport, 147–53 Economics, neoclassical, 202 Edge, 228–31, 243 Education, 18, 23, 34, 90, 131, 202–3, 211; corporate inﬂuence, 94 Eells, Richard, 32–41 Eisner, Michael, 140 Electronics, 2, 3, 9, 14 11 Pop Artists, 31–40 El Salvador, 175 Emerson Electric Co.: interlock with Anheuser-Busch, 64 Enchantment, 2–3, 13, 15.
The Culture of Narcissism: American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations by Christopher Lasch
cuban missile crisis, delayed gratification, desegregation, feminist movement, full employment, George Santayana, impulse control, Induced demand, invisible hand, Kitchen Debate, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, means of production, Norman Mailer, road to serfdom, Scientific racism, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, theory of mind, Thorstein Veblen, union organizing, upwardly mobile, urban renewal, yellow journalism
The careers of both Kennedy and Nixon testify to the prevailing obsession with crisis management and the management of impressions. Kennedy, in his eagerness to overcome the impression of weakness left by the Bay of Pigs fiascoitself the product of a haunting fear that the Cuban revolution had undermined American prestige in Latin America-blustered against Nikita Khruschchev in Vienna proclaimed Berlin "the great testing-place of Western courage and will, and risked nuclear war over the Cuban missile crisis, even though Soviet missiles in Cuba, deliberately provocative as they were in no way altered the military balance of power. In many ways the most , " , important event of the Kennedy administration however-its high point, from which everything else was a decline-was the inaugural, a spectacle that solidified the myth of Camelot before , . Camelot had even come into being. "The torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans born in this century tempered , , In these by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace words Kennedy invoked his preoccupation with discipline testing, and tempering on behalf of a whole generation's belief-so soon shattered-that it stood poised on the brink of greatness Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country."
, aggression, 179: and anlagonislic cooperation, Bach, Sheldon: on changing patlems of psychic disor - der, 42 Bad Seed, The (March) 204 Balzac, de, Honorc 93 , , 118-9; in business , 119; and competition , conservalive critique of . 57 9- 232-6: and dependence 228-32: in education 142, 144. 146; and narcissism, 43-7, 61 n : and propaganda 75-7; and , . , survivalism 61-3 . 275 276 : Index Index : 277 Bush. Vannevar, 139 Crusoe, Robinson, 53 emitleinenl,221 Bun, Dorcas Susan, 104; on compeiiiion, 117 ciyonics,207 Epstein. Joseph: on sports, 102 escalation: theory and tactics of, 82 Eveigmn State College, 141 n. Ewen, Stuart: on advertising, 92 Exley, Frederick, 18.19: quoted. 21.22,140 Cuban missile crisis, 79 " Caillois, Roger: on games, 100 California Insliluie of Technology, 215 calling: Puritan doctrine of, 54-6 cultural deprivation, 142 cultural revolution, xv, 5, 114, 126, 151. 177 n.; we Calvinism:«r Puritanism aillure: and personality, 33-5,63-4 Camp Walter. 120, 121: on sports. 113 Carnegie Cotporation, 149,226 Carnegie, Dale, 59 castration: fear of, 203-5 Cat s Crad/e (Vonnegut), 20 Caweltt, John; on success myth, 58 celebrity, 59-61, 118-9; cull of, 21-2, 33 , 84, 181, 231-2: and fame, 84-6 Center for Policy Reseatch, 168 n.
What the Dormouse Said: How the Sixties Counterculture Shaped the Personal Computer Industry by John Markoff
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Apple II, back-to-the-land, beat the dealer, Bill Duvall, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, Buckminster Fuller, California gold rush, card file, computer age, computer vision, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, different worldview, Donald Knuth, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dynabook, Edward Thorp, El Camino Real, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, general-purpose programming language, Golden Gate Park, Hacker Ethic, hypertext link, informal economy, information retrieval, invention of the printing press, Jeff Rulifson, John Markoff, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Mahatma Gandhi, Menlo Park, Mother of all demos, Norbert Wiener, packet switching, Paul Terrell, popular electronics, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, Robert X Cringely, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South of Market, San Francisco, speech recognition, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, The Hackers Conference, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, union organizing, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, William Shockley: the traitorous eight
A tiny peace movement had recently sprung up on American college campuses, led by groups such as the National Committee for a SANE Nuclear Policy, Peacemakers, Turn Toward Peace, and the Student Peace Union, as well as dozens of small newsletters, magazines, and dissident journals. Moore became active in the Committee for Non-Violent Action, one of the first American peace organizations to focus on civil disobedience. In the aftermath of the Cuban missile crisis, he participated in the racially integrated Quebec-Washington-Guantánamo Walk for Peace. The walk began in 1963 in Quebec with groups from other cities expanding its numbers. In Atlanta, some of the marchers were beaten and jailed, and civil rights became a significant issue. Once again, Moore made it only as far as Florida; because of a U.S. ban on travel to Cuba, the marchers stopped in Miami.
He was responsible for the esoteric radio equipment that was used to plot the trajectories of missiles in the atmosphere. Because Allison’s expertise was in radio physics, he wound up with a night job, since most of the missiles were fired at 3:00 A.M., when they were least likely to disturb civilians. For the most part, the work was highly technical and uneventful. There was, however, the evening of the third day of the Cuban missile crisis, when other military radars tracked one of the experimental launches, and planes were scrambled from a nearby air force base. The launches were temporarily put on hold. When Allison came back to the West Coast, he initially spent time working for the classified side of SRI, but soon, like many others, he became more intrigued with computing. The classified division had a growing need for computing power, and it had a second SDS-940 machine, similar to the one used by Engelbart’s group, to which Allison had ready access.
Dragnet Nation: A Quest for Privacy, Security, and Freedom in a World of Relentless Surveillance by Julia Angwin
AltaVista, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, bitcoin, Chelsea Manning, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, clean water, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, data is the new oil, David Graeber, Debian, Edward Snowden, Filter Bubble, Firefox, GnuPG, Google Chrome, Google Glasses, informal economy, Jacob Appelbaum, John Markoff, Julian Assange, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, market design, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, prediction markets, price discrimination, randomized controlled trial, RFID, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, security theater, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart meter, Steven Levy, Upton Sinclair, WikiLeaks, Y2K, zero-sum game, Zimmermann PGP
the United States successfully launched photoreconnaissance: Corona Fact Sheet, National Reconnaissance Office, accessed July 19, 2013, http://www.nro.gov/history/csnr/corona/factsheet.html. The images captured by the satellite: Dwayne A. Day, “Of Myths and Missiles: The Truth About John F. Kennedy and the Missile Gap,” Space Review, January 3, 2006, http://www.thespacereview.com/article/523/1. in 1961, the Soviets had just four: John T. Correll, “Airpower and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Air Force Magazine 88, no. 8 (August 2005), http://www.airforcemag.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/2005/August%202005/0805u2.aspx. In 1972, the United States and the Soviet Union: Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems, U.S.-U.S.S.R., May 26, 1972, 23 U.S.T. 3435, https://www.fas.org/nuke/control/abmt/text/abm2.htm. Six years later, President Jimmy Carter: Jimmy Carter, “Remarks at the Congressional Space Medal of Honor Awards Ceremony,” Kennedy Space Center, Florida, October 1, 1978, Weekly Compilation of Presidential Documents 14, no. 40 (October 9, 1978): 1671–1727, http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB231/doc32.pdf.
See also e-mail; IP address; passwords; Web browsers; websites; and specific companies, services, and software compartmentalization and encryption and malicious software and passwords and terrorism and threat models and ConvergeTrack cookies copyrights CoreLogic Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) court orders court records credit cards disposable number fake identity and credit reports credit score crime Crimes Against Children Research Center criminal records CryptoParty handbook Cuban missile crisis Cukier, Kenneth culture of fear customized content Cuyahoga River cyber-espionage companies cyber-stalking Cypherpunks Cypherpunk’s Manifesto, A (Hughes) Dandia, Asad dark data cycles data auctions data audit credit scoring and data brokers and fake identity and Freestylers and government and travel and data brokers auditing your data on government and health insurers and opt-outs and regulation of data exchanges Dataium service Data Liberation Front Datalogix DataLossDB website data pollution strategy data-scoring business data storage dating profiles Davis, Ed Debt (Graeber) Defense Department DeleteMe Democratic Party Demographics Inc.
A History of Modern Britain by Andrew Marr
air freight, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, battle of ideas, Beeching cuts, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Geldof, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Brixton riot, clean water, collective bargaining, computer age, congestion charging, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Etonian, falling living standards, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, floating exchange rates, full employment, housing crisis, illegal immigration, Kickstarter, liberal capitalism, Live Aid, loadsamoney, market design, mass immigration, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, Neil Kinnock, Nelson Mandela, new economy, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, open borders, out of africa, Parkinson's law, Piper Alpha, Red Clydeside, reserve currency, Right to Buy, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, strikebreaker, upwardly mobile, Winter of Discontent, working poor, Yom Kippur War
What no one in Whitehall or Washington knew then, though they might have guessed it, was that Mao had decided to use unfortunate Korea as a ‘meat-grinder’ war, in which the huge numbers of Western deaths would break the morale of the capitalist West and gain him vital credit with Stalin, so persuading Moscow to share nuclear secrets with Beijing. In March 1951, Mao told the Soviet dictator that his plan was ‘to spend several years consuming several hundred thousand American lives’.66 Had he been more militarily successful, the temptation to go nuclear would have been great. Though the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 is remembered, rightly, as the moment when the world came nearest to nuclear war, there was a serious possibility of it happening earlier, in Korea and China. The scale of the challenge in Korea after the Communist north invaded on 25 June 1950 quickly persuaded the British government that troops and ships should be sent to help the Americans and the flailing southern regime of Syngman Rhee.
At the England–France rugby international at Twickenham a few days later, England won six-five and the captain assured Heath, the failed negotiator, that he had had a word with the team and told them ‘this was an all-important game. Everyone knew what I meant and produced the necessary.’50 Macmillan himself bitterly recorded in his diary that ‘the French always betray you in the end.’ Tales of Yankee Power In 1962 the world had come to the brink of nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis. The people living round Scotland’s Holy Loch, where Macmillan had allowed the Americans to base the first nuclear submarines, immediately realized the gravity of the Cuban crisis when they awoke in the night to the unfamiliar sound of silence. The humming of motors on the loch they had become so used to had suddenly ceased and when morning broke they saw that the US submarines had slipped away to prepare their nuclear attack on Russia.
Britain would build the submarines, at Barrow-in-Furness and Birkenhead, including the nuclear power systems, and would produce her own nuclear warheads. But America would supply the Polaris missiles themselves. Work started in 1963 on a new British nuclear submarine base at Faslane, just along the coast from the Holy Loch, the first new naval base since 1909. It had become perfectly obvious after the Cuban missile crisis that if Armageddon happened, it would have been triggered by some miscalculation or accident involving the US or the USSR. Every other nation, nuclear or not, would be a mere observer. And if the independent deterrence was not independent, and far from giving Britain leverage, made her a supplicant, why did Britain press on? The mixed motives of Macmillan and Alec Douglas-Home included a whiff of the old Churchillian fantasy about great power status.
Apollo 8: The Thrilling Story of the First Mission to the Moon by Jeffrey Kluger
See also Mission Control Carpenter, Scott Carr, Jerry CBS TV Cernan, Gene Chaffee, Crater Chaffee, Roger Chance Vought Charlesworth, Cliff Chertok, Boris Chestnut, Ma China Christmas in space circularizing burn circumlunar flight Apollo 8 changed to lunar orbit from Apollo 8 proposed as Zond and Civil Rights Act (1964) Cold War Collins, Crater Collins, Michael “Mike” Colombo Crater Colossus software command and service module (CSM) Conrad, Pete Cooper, Gordon Crater, Crile 228 Cronkite, Walter Crossfield, Scott cryogenic tanks Cuban Missile Crisis Cunningham, Walter data storage equipment (DSE, dump tapes) Debus, Kurt Deiterich, Chuck Delporte Crater Democratic National Convention (Chicago, 1968) Democratic Party Depression digital autopilot (DAP) Dobrynin, Anatoly Drums Along the Mohawk (Edmonds) Duke, Charlie Earth Apollo 8 leaves gravity of humans adapted to light-time distance to position of, and launch window views of, from space Earthrise (photograph) Earthshine Eastern Air Lines Eastern Europe Edmonds, Walter Edwards Air Force Base Eisele, Donn Eisenhower, David Eisenhower, Dwight Electronic Data Systems Elizabeth II, Queen of England Elkins, Joe Elkins, Margaret entry monitoring system (EMS) environmental control system Ernal, Bob F-80 fighter jet F-84 F-86 Sabrejets F-89 F-104 Field, John flight dynamics (FIDO) console flotation balloons flotation collar Fra Mauro Highlands France Franz Crater Freeman, Ted free-return trajectory Gay, Chuck Gehrig, Lou Gemini 1 Gemini 3 Gemini 4 Gemini 5 Gemini 6 Agena explosion and scrubbing of dual mission with Gemini 7 first scheduled shutdown protocol Gemini 7 Borman assigned to dual mission with Gemini 6 launch of medical tests on sleeping shifts splashdown and recovery two-week orbit Gemini 8 Gemini 10 Gemini 11 Gemini 12 Gemini spacecraft design of food on human body tested by mobility in orbit and reentry space walking and Titan rocket and General Dynamics Germany, Nazi g-forces on launch on reentry Gilbert Crater Gilruth, Bob Glenn, John global tracking web Goddard, Robert Godfrey, Arthur Goldwater, Barry Gordon, Dick Grau, Dieter Griffin, Gerry Grissom, Crater Grissom, Gus Apollo 1 explosion and death of Apollo mission and Apollo simulator and food and Gemini 3 and Lovell and Mercury program and Grissom, Mrs.
See also astronauts; Cape Kennedy; Mission Control; and specific missions and individuals Apollo 1 explosion and Apollo 7 and Apollo 8 turned into moon shot by Apollo families and Apollo program, post-explosion Apollo spacecraft design and celebrations post-moon shot Christmas TV broadcasts and creation of Distinguished Service Medal early rockets and families and flight rules funding Gemini 1 and Gemini 6–7 dual mission and improvisations and JFK and Kraft as flight operations head LBJ and medical testing and Mercury overshoot and moon landing deadline and PR and Slayton and oversight of space race and White House dinner and National Aeronautics and Space Council National Football League Naval Academy (Annapolis) Naval Air Station Patuxent River Navy Navy Department near-escape velocity Nellis Air Force Base New York Jets New York Times Nixon, Julie Nixon, Richard North American Aviation North Korea nuclear missiles Ocean of Storms Offenbach, Jacques orbital parameters Outer Space Treaty PADS (preliminary advisory data) parachute passive thermal control (PTC) mode Pasteur Crater Paul VI, Pope Peanuts (comic strip) Perot, Ross Pershing Missile Petrone, Rocco Philippines Pickering Crater Pilyugin, Nikolai plugs-out test Podgorny, Nikolai pogo problem Polaris missiles Propst, Gary Pueblo, USS (ship) Pyrenees Mountains of the Moon radiation sickness Raish, Donald Redstone rocket reentry Soviet Zond and protocol, broken by Schirra rendezvous and docking Gemini 6 plan Gemini 6–7 dual mission and Republican Party retrofire console Richardson Crater Rockefeller, Nelson Roughing It (Twain) Rudolph, Arthur Saturn 1B Saturn V rocket Apollo 6 and Apollo 8 and readiness of Apollo 8 launch and design of engine problems launch window Mission Control rehearsals and pogo problem and third stage for TLI and third stage separation and Scaliger Crater Scheer, Julian Schefter, James Schirra, Wally Apollo 1 explosion and Apollo 7 and Apollo assignment and Gemini 6 launch and Gemini 6–7 dual mission and humor and Schweickart, Rusty Scientific Research Institute (Moscow) Scott, Dave Sea of Crises Sea of Fertility Sea of Tranquillity See, Elliot service module junking Service Propulsion System (SPS) central role of, in lunar mission circularizing burn fuel and hypergolic chemical flow and lunar orbit entry and TEI burn and testing, for course correction Shea, Joe Shepard, Al Sherrington Crater Slayton, Donald Kent “Deke” Anders and Apollo 1 explosion and Apollo 7 and Apollo 8 and Apollo 9 and Apollo 11 and Gemini flights and Smyth’s Sea Snoopy hats Sousa, John Philip South Korea Soviet astronauts, early Soviet Central Research Institute (USSR) Soviet MiG plane Soviet Union (Russia) Apollo 1 and Apollo 8 and Cuban Missile Crisis and Korean War and Outer Space Treaty and Sputnik and Zond and space race spacesuits Space Task Group space walk White and Collins and splashdown and recovery launch windows Sputnik Stafford, Tom Apollo 10 Gemini 6 and Gemini 6–7 dual mission and Storms, Harrison “Stormy” Strategic Air Command subortibal missions Sunday Times (London) Super Bowl sustainer engine cut-off (SECO) T-6 T-33 Taurus-Littrow Mountains television broadcasts from Apollo 8 Christmas reentry and thrusters Time Man of the Year issue Tindall, Bill Titan missile Borman and tests of design of Gemini 6–7 dual mission and man-rating of toilet needs in space Apollo 8 urine problems Gemini 7 and Tranquillity Base trans-Earth injection (TEI) translunar injection (TLI) translunar route navigation Triangular Mountain (Mount Marilyn) Tsiolkovsky Crater Tuskegee airmen Twain, Mark United Kingdom U.S.
21 Lessons for the 21st Century by Yuval Noah Harari
1960s counterculture, accounting loophole / creative accounting, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, algorithmic trading, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Ayatollah Khomeini, basic income, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon-based life, cognitive dissonance, computer age, computer vision, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, deglobalization, Donald Trump, failed state, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Freestyle chess, gig economy, glass ceiling, Google Glasses, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invisible hand, job automation, knowledge economy, liberation theology, Louis Pasteur, low skilled workers, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, means of production, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mohammed Bouazizi, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, obamacare, pattern recognition, post-work, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Scramble for Africa, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, transatlantic slave trade, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, uranium enrichment, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero-sum game
Will we make a world in which all humans can live together, or will we all go into the dark? Do Donald Trump, Theresa May, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi and their colleagues save the world by fanning our national sentiments, or is the current nationalist spate a form of escapism from the intractable global problems we face? The nuclear challenge Let’s start with humankind’s familiar nemesis: nuclear war. When the Daisy advertisement aired in 1964, two years after the Cuban Missile Crisis, nuclear annihilation was a palpable threat. Pundits and laypeople alike feared that humankind did not have the wisdom to avert destruction, and that it was only a matter of time before the Cold War turned scorching hot. In fact, humankind successfully rose to the nuclear challenge. Americans, Soviets, Europeans and Chinese changed the way geopolitics has been conducted for millennia, so that the Cold War ended with little bloodshed, and a new internationalist world order fostered an era of unprecedented peace.
Abbasid caliphs 94 Abraham, prophet 182–3, 186, 187, 274 advertising 36, 50, 53, 54, 77–8, 87, 97, 113, 114, 267 Afghanistan 101, 112, 153, 159, 172, 210 Africa 8, 13, 20, 58, 76, 79, 100, 103–4, 107, 139, 147, 150–1, 152, 168, 182, 184, 223, 226, 229, 239 see also under individual nation name African Americans 67, 150, 152, 227 agriculture 171, 185; animals and 71, 118–19, 224; automation of jobs in 19–20, 29; climate change and modern industrial 116, 117; hierarchical societies and birth of 73–4, 185, 266–7; religion and 128–30 Aisne, third Battle of the (1918) 160 Akhenaten, Pharaoh 191 Al-Aqsa mosque, Jerusalem 15 al-Baghdadi, Abu Bakr 98 Algeria 144, 145 algorithms see artificial intelligence (AI) Ali, Husayn ibn 288 Alibaba (online retailer) 50 Allah 104, 128, 130, 204, 271–2, 289 AlphaZero 31, 123 al-Qaeda 162, 168 Amazon (online retailer) 39, 40, 50, 52, 91, 267–8 Amazon rainforest 116 Amos, prophet 188 Amritsar massacre (1919) 10 Andéol, Emilie 102 animals xi, 73, 86, 98–9, 182, 190, 218, 245; distinct social behaviours 94–5; ecological collapse and 71, 116, 118–19, 224; farm animals, subjugation of 71, 118–19, 224; morality and 187–8, 200; religious sacrifice of 190 anti-Semitism 142, 143, 194, 195, 235–6 see also Jews Apple (technology company) 91, 178 Arab Spring xi, 91 Arjuna (hero of Bhagavadgita) 269–70, 271, 299 art, AI and 25–8, 55–6, 182 artificial intelligence (AI) xiii, xiv; art and 25–8, 55–6, 182; authority shift from humans to 43, 44–72, 78, 268; biochemical algorithms and 20, 21, 25–8, 47–8, 56, 59, 251, 299; cars and see cars; centaurs (human-AI teams) 29, 30–1; communism and 35, 38; consciousness and 68–72, 122, 245–6; creativity and 25–8, 32; data ownership and 77–81; dating and 263; decision-making and 36–7, 50–61; democracy and see democracy; digital dictatorships and xii, 43, 61–8, 71, 79–80, 121; discrimination and 59–60, 67–8, 75–6; education and 32, 34, 35, 38 39, 40–1, 259–68; emotional detection/manipulation 25–8, 51–2, 53, 70, 79–80, 265, 267; equality and xi, 8, 9, 13, 41, 71–2, 73–81, 246; ethics and 56–61; free will and 46–9; games and 29, 31–2, 123; globalisation and threat of 38–40; government and xii, 6, 7–9, 34–5, 37–43, 48, 53, 61–8, 71, 77–81, 87, 90, 121, 267, 268; healthcare and 22–3, 24–5, 28, 48–9, 50; intuition and 20–1, 47; liberty and 44–72; manipulation of human beings 7, 25–8, 46, 48, 50–6, 68–72, 78, 79–80, 86, 96, 245–55, 265, 267, 268; nationalism and 120–6; regulation of 6, 22, 34–5, 61, 77–81, 123; science fiction and 245–55, 268; surveillance systems and 63–5; unique non-human abilities of 21–2; war and 61–8, 123–4 see also war; weapons and see weapons; work and 8, 18, 19–43 see also work Ashoka, Emperor of India 191–2, 286 Ashura 288, 289 Asia 16, 39, 100, 103, 275 see also under individual nation name Assyrian Empire 171 Athenian democracy, ancient 95–6 attention, technology and human 71, 77–8, 87, 88–91 Australia 13, 54, 116, 145, 150, 183, 187, 232–3 Aztecs 182, 289 Babri Mosque, Ayodhya 291 Babylonian Empire 188, 189 Baidu (technology company) 23, 40, 48, 77, 267–8 Bangladesh 38–9, 273 bank loans, AI and 67 behavioural economics 20, 147, 217 Belgium 103, 165, 172 Bellaigue, Christopher de 94 Berko, Anat 233 bestiality, secular ethics and 205–6 bewilderment, age of xiii, 17, 215, 257 Bhagavadgita 269–70, 271, 299 Bhardwaj, Maharishi 181 Bible 127, 131–2, 133, 186–90, 198, 199, 200, 206, 233, 234–5, 240, 241, 272, 298 Big Data xii, 18, 25, 47, 48, 49, 53, 63, 64, 68, 71–2, 268 biometric sensors 23, 49, 50, 52, 64, 79, 92 biotechnology xii, xiv, 1, 6, 7, 8, 16, 17, 18, 21, 33–4, 41, 48, 66, 75, 80, 83, 88, 109, 121, 122, 176, 211, 251–2, 267 see also under individual area of biotechnology bioterrorism 167, 169 Bismarck, Ott