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Wall Street Meat by Andy Kessler
accounting loophole / creative accounting, Andy Kessler, automated trading system, banking crisis, Bob Noyce, George Gilder, index fund, Jeff Bezos, market bubble, Menlo Park, Pepto Bismol, pets.com, Robert Metcalfe, rolodex, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Small Order Execution System, Steve Jobs, technology bubble, undersea cable, Y2K
But little Rickie was a man, and stood up to him and put a Hold rating on it instead. This was a nice piece of revisionist history, in an attempt by Ruvkun to selfinstall a backbone. So I sent an email to Frank (in Eliot Spitzer’s archives now, no doubt): To: Frank Quattrone From: Andy Kessler It must have been Rick Ruvkun’s shadow (the one he is still afraid of) that put out that Hold. Hang in there . . . Andy I was trying to be nice. Hey, maybe I did give a rat’s ass. Later that evening, I got an email back from Frank: 222 Spitzer Fixer To: Andy Kessler From: Frank Quattrone How about writing an article about how you pressured Bill Brady into taking Mediavision public? Now that was a low blow, but a well deserved one on my part. I was itching to do a multimedia deal back at Morgan Stanley, to prove to Frank that my research wasn’t worthless.
West, 221 Valentine, Don, 169 Velocity Capital Management, 170–71, 180, 191–94 255 Index Venrock, 137 Vonderschmitt, Bernie, 94 Vortex, 214 Waddell and Read, 28 Wagner, Todd, 178 Wait, Jarett, 206–7 Wallach, Andrew, 11–12, 29, 162 Wall Street banking and, 91 casino metaphor, 147 how money is made on, 90–91 individual investors and, 237 IPOs and, 115 Wall Street Journal, 67, 112–13, 178, 222 Wasserman, Lew, 157 256 Weil, Ulrich, 25 Weill, Sandy, 216–17, 227 Wein, Byron, 111–12, 143, 153 Wellcome Trust, 143 White Weld, 14 Wilson, Fred, 203 Wilson, Pete, 62 Winnick, Gary, 213, 220 WorldCom, 1, 38, 219, 220, 226–27, 229 Xilinx, 94, 114–16 Yahoo, 169 Yamamoto, Takatoshi, 151 About the Author ANDY KESSLER worked on Wall Street for nearly twenty years as a research analyst, investment banker, venture capitalist, and hedge fund manager. He has written for the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Thestreet.com, and the American Spectator, and appeared on CNBC, CNN, Nightline, and Dateline NBC. He lives in northern California with his wife and four sons. Visit www.AuthorTracker.com for exclusive information on your favorite HarperCollins author. Credits Designed by Amy Hill Copyright WALL STREET MEAT. Copyright © 2003, 2004 by Andy Kessler. All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. By payment of the required fees, you have been granted the non-exclusive, non-transferable right to access and read the text of this e-book on-screen.
My Narrow Escape from the Stock Market Grinder ANDY KESSLER For Nancy and the Boys Contents Foreword by Michael Lewis v Introduction 1 C HAPTER 1 Right 51% of the Time C HAPTER 2 Piranhas 19 C HAPTER 3 You’re in the Entertainment Business 41 C HAPTER 4 Bull Run 50 C HAPTER 5 Time to Get Serious 70 C HAPTER 6 Wheeling and Dealing at Morgan 88 C HAPTER 7 Up, then Tanked 114 C HAPTER 8 Kicking Off the ’90s 121 C HAPTER 9 Something about Mary 132 C HAPTER 10 Netscape IPO 165 C HAPTER 11 Quacking Ducks 172 C HAPTER 12 Price Targets as a Marketing Tool 181 C HAPTER 13 Synthetic Goldman Sachs 195 C HAPTER 14 The Ax Syndrome 209 C HAPTER 15 Spitzer Fixer 219 5 Afterword 233 Index 247 About the Author Credits Cover Copyright About the Publisher Foreword by Michael Lewis J ack Grubman, Frank Quattrone, Mary Meeker, and Henry Blodget, were Wall Street’s best-known promoters of the Internettelecom boom.
How to Kick Ass on Wall Street by Andy Kessler
Andy Kessler, Bernie Madoff, buttonwood tree, call centre, collateralized debt obligation, family office, fixed income, hiring and firing, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, London Whale, margin call, NetJets, Nick Leeson, pets.com, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, time value of money, too big to fail, value at risk
How to Kick Ass On Wall Street Andy Kessler Author of Wall Street Meat, Running Money and Eat People Copyright © 2012 by Andy Kessler All rights reserved, including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form. Escape Velocity Press www.andykessler.com Introduction All right! You got a job on Wall Street. Way to go. Welcome aboard. If history is any guide, you’re wicked smart, a great athlete and know somebody. Or any combo of the above. Don’t matter. You got the job. Feels good, right? When you got the offer, you were probably as pumped as Will Ferrell in Semi-Pro, “Yes! Give me ten Norton! Everyone can eat shit! A big bag of shit! Ha ha ha! I'm the greatest man in the world! Whoo!” OK. Not so fast. All you got was a ticket to the dance.
It is a living document that I’ll keep updating and adding to it. Send me an email at email@example.com with KAWS or Kick Ass on Wall Street in the subject line and I’ll put you on my mailing list. Feedback is welcome, good or bad. I have a thick skin. And tell me what you’re doing, how you’re doing and how this helped. You can find most of the other stuff I’ve written at www.andykessler.com. Good luck and kick some ass on Wall Street. Andy Kessler
How We Got Here: A Slightly Irreverent History of Technology and Markets by Andy Kessler
Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, animal electricity, automated trading system, bank run, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Noyce, Bretton Woods, British Empire, buttonwood tree, Claude Shannon: information theory, Corn Laws, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, fiat currency, fixed income, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, Grace Hopper, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, Kickstarter, Leonard Kleinrock, Marc Andreessen, Maui Hawaii, Menlo Park, Metcalfe's law, Metcalfe’s law, Mitch Kapor, packet switching, price mechanism, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, profit motive, railway mania, RAND corporation, Robert Metcalfe, Silicon Valley, Small Order Execution System, South Sea Bubble, spice trade, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, tulip mania, Turing machine, Turing test, undersea cable, William Shockley: the traitorous eight
HOW WE G O T H ER E A Slightly Irreverent History of Technology and Markets A Silicon Valley and Wall Street Primer To order a copy of this book, click: http://rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=andykessler20&o=1&p=8&l=as1&asins=0060840978&fc1=000000&=1&lc1=00 00ff&bc1=000000<1=_blank&IS2=1&f=ifr&bg1=ffffff&f=ifr ALSO BY ANDY KESSLER Wall Street Meat: Jack Grubman, Frank Quattrone, Mary Meeker, Henry Blodget and me Running Money: Hedge Fund Honchos, Monster Markets and My Hunt for the Big Score Coming in 2006: The End of Medicine: Tales of Naked Mice, 3D Guts and Rebooting Doctors How We Got Here A Silicon Valley and Wall Street Primer . A Slightly Irreverent History of Technology And Markets Andy Kessler Copyright © 2005 by Andy Kessler All rights reserved, including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form. www.andykessler.com email the author at: firstname.lastname@example.org with HWGH as the subject Library of Congress Control Number: Cataloging-in-Publication data is available.
Standage, Tom, 1998, The Victorian Internet – The Remarkable Story of the Telegraph and the Nineteenth Century On-Line Pioneers, Berkeley Sylla, Richard, 1998, The First Great IPO, Financial History Magazine Issue, 64 Thurston, Robert, 1878, A History of the Growth of the Steam-Engine Weightman, Gavin, 2003, Signor Marconi’s Magic Box – The Most Remarkable Invention of the 19th Century and the Amateur Inventor Whose Genius Sparked a Revolution, Da Capo Press About the Author Andy Kessler is a former electrical engineer turned Wall Street analyst turned investment banker turned venture capitalist turned hedge fund manager turned writer and author. His book Wall Street Meat: Jack Grubman, Frank Quattrone, Mary Meeker, Henry Blodget and me was published in March of 2003. The follow on, Running Money: Hedge Fund Honchos, Monster Markets and My Hunt for the Big Score, was published by HarperCollins in September of 2004. Andy is a frequent contributor to the Wall Street Journal op-ed page and has written for Forbes Magazine, Wired, the LA Times, and The American Spectator magazine as well as techcentralstation.com and thestreet.com websites. He has even written a piece of fiction for Slate - bet you can’t find it. Andy Kessler was co-founder and President of Velocity Capital Management, an investment firm based in Palo Alto, California, that provided funding for private and public technology and communications companies.
Running Money by Andy Kessler
Andy Kessler, Apple II, bioinformatics, Bob Noyce, British Empire, business intelligence, buy and hold, buy low sell high, call centre, Corn Laws, Douglas Engelbart, family office, full employment, George Gilder, happiness index / gross national happiness, interest rate swap, invisible hand, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, knowledge worker, Leonard Kleinrock, Long Term Capital Management, mail merge, Marc Andreessen, margin call, market bubble, Maui Hawaii, Menlo Park, Metcalfe’s law, Mitch Kapor, Network effects, packet switching, pattern recognition, pets.com, railway mania, risk tolerance, Robert Metcalfe, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Toyota Production System, zero-sum game
See Internet Western Digital, 128 Whitaker Investments, 176 Whitney, Eli, 67 wide area networks, 188, 199 Wilkinson, John, 51–52, 56–57, 78, 101, 268 William Morris Agency, 196 Windows, 197, 247, 259, 274, 276, 277 Winnick, Gary, 183, 187, 290 Winstar, 179 Wintel, 265, 277 wireless technology, 179, 296 worker training, 122 World Bank, 264 WorldCom, 225, 290 Worldtalk, 106 Wozniak, Steve, 128 Wynn, Steve, 50 Xanadu, 118 Xerox PARC (Palo Alto Research Center), 118, 189, 190–91 Xilinx, 130, 131 Yahoo, 92, 93, 136, 143, 223, 247 Yamaichi, 160 Yamamoto, Takatoshi, 154–61 yen-carry trade, 162–65, 168, 292 Z80 home computer, 127 Zilog, 127 Zona, Hank, 131 Zoran, 96 About the Author Andy Kessler is the author of the book that rippled through the financial world, Wall Street Meat: My Narrow Escape from the Stock Market Grinder. He has written for the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, TheStreet.com and the American Spectator, and appeared on CNBC, CNN, Nightline and Dateline NBC. He lives in northern California. Visit www.AuthorTracker.com for exclusive information on your favorite HarperCollins author. ALSO BY ANDY KESSLER Wall Street Meat Credits Designed by Nancy Singer Copyright RUNNING MONEY. Copyright © 2004 by Andy Kessler. All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. By payment of the required fees, you have been granted the non-exclusive, non-transferable right to access and read the text of this e-book on-screen.
> > > Running Money > > > > Hedge Fund Honchos, Monster Markets and My Hunt for the Big Score > > > > > Andy Kessler For Nancy and our bookends, Kyle and Brett, and our books, Kur t and R yan > > > Contents Ssangyong Sweat 1 Part I Raising Funds 7 Part II Revolution 37 Part III Searching for Scale 87 Part IV Intellectual Property 115 Part V The Next Barrier 173 Part VI Burst 221 Part VII The Margin Surplus 231 Part VIII Epilogue 285 Acknowledgments 297 Index 299 About the Author Other Books by Andy Kessler Credits Cover Copyright About the Publisher > > > Ssangyong Sweat This market really sucks. It’s the fall of 1998, and things are banging around so much, my head hurts. Just like that, our gains from the last few years have vanished. Poof. You can’t ever forget how precarious and humbling running money really is.
The End of Work: Why Your Passion Can Become Your Job by John Tamny
Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, asset allocation, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, cloud computing, commoditize, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Downton Abbey, future of work, George Gilder, haute cuisine, income inequality, Jeff Bezos, knowledge economy, Mark Zuckerberg, Peter Thiel, profit motive, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, There's no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home - Ken Olsen, trickle-down economics, universal basic income, upwardly mobile, Yogi Berra
CONTENTS FOREWORD INTRODUCTION CHAPTER ONE Why College Football Players Should Major in College Football CHAPTER TWO Intelligence and Passion Don’t Stop at Football CHAPTER THREE Education Isn’t Meaningless, But It’s Grossly Overrated CHAPTER FOUR What Was Once Silly Is Now Serious CHAPTER FIVE Abundant Profits Make Possible the Work That Isn’t CHAPTER SIX The Millennial Generation Will Be the Richest Yet—Until the Next One CHAPTER SEVEN My Story CHAPTER EIGHT The “Venture Buyer” CHAPTER NINE Why We Need People with Money to Burn CHAPTER TEN Love Your Robot, Love Your Job CHAPTER ELEVEN Come Inside and Turn on the Xbox, You Have Work to Do ACKNOWLEDGMENTS NOTES FOREWORD Andy Kessler What do you do? We all get asked this at meetings, interviews, cocktail parties, everywhere. It’s almost as if the person asking is trying to put you in some cubby and figure out how you tick by branding you as a certain type of person, which magically unlocks the mystery to your personality. But these days, there are so many interesting, bizarre, and confusing answers to “What do you do?” that it’s hard to put someone into a predefined box anymore.
We are left with jobs that don’t feel like jobs, careers that don’t feel like careers. Our productive lives become a blessing rather than a burden. And every one of us contributes, not just some self-selected elite. Wealth gets created for a wider and wider swath of workers, rather than distributed by policy wonks. Once you think, any job is possible. And it won’t feel like a job. Get ready for a life of adventure. Andy Kessler, the co-founder and former president of Velocity Capital Management, is the author of Eat People: And Other Unapologetic Rules for Game-Changing Entrepreneurs. INTRODUCTION “Man’s work begins with his job; his profession. Having a vocation is something of a miracle, like falling in love.”1 —Hyman Rickover In the fall of 2014, my wife and I attended a Fleetwood Mac concert in Washington, D.C.
Forbes.com, April 1, 2012. 7.Ibid. 8.John C. Dvorak, “Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone,” MarketWatch, March 28, 2007, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-should-pull-the-plug-on-the-iphone. 9.MacDailyNews, “RIM half-CEO doesn’t see threat from Apple’s iPhone,” February 12, 2007. 10.Gregory Korte, “Through executive orders, Obama tests power as purchaser-in-chief,” USA Today, October 11, 2015. 11.Andy Kessler, “Robots, 3-D Printers and Other Looming Innovations,” Wall Street Journal, August 7, 2013. 12.Stewart Wolpin, “Commercial GPS Turns 25: How the Unwanted Military Tech Found Its True Calling,” Mashable, May 25, 2014. 13.Steven F. Hayward, The Age of Reagan: The Fall of the Old Liberal Order (Roseville, Calif.: Forum, 2001), 290. 14.Ibid., 7. 15.“Wi-Fi Will Connect Them All,” http://www.wi-fi.org/download.php?
The Greed Merchants: How the Investment Banks Exploited the System by Philip Augar
Andy Kessler, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bonfire of the Vanities, business cycle, buttonwood tree, buy and hold, capital asset pricing model, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate raider, crony capitalism, cross-subsidies, financial deregulation, financial innovation, fixed income, Gordon Gekko, high net worth, information retrieval, interest rate derivative, invisible hand, John Meriwether, Long Term Capital Management, Martin Wolf, new economy, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, pensions crisis, regulatory arbitrage, Sand Hill Road, shareholder value, short selling, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, Telecommunications Act of 1996, The Chicago School, The Predators' Ball, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transaction costs, tulip mania, value at risk, yield curve
., America’s second largest long-distance telecommunications carrier before it went bankrupt in July 2002,37 alleged how spinning worked: ‘Since 1996, Salomon repeatedly allocated thousands of hot IPO shares to the same top executives of the same telecommunications companies. In return, these executives, who were all in the position to determine or influence the selection of their company’s financial advisers or underwriters, repeatedly directed to Salomon investment banking business worth many millions of dollars.’38 Laddering was a variation on the theme. Andy Kessler, a former investment analyst and hedge fund manager, explained how it worked: ‘Fund managers promised to buy more IPO shares in the open market on the first day of an IPO to ladder the deal, causing or perhaps just perpetuating the first day pop in the share price.’39 As their losses mounted and details emerged of the investment banks’ duplicity, the investing public got very angry. The media turned against the investment banks and ran articles such as ‘How corrupt is Wall Street?’
Right now there is no doubt that the mood has changed and the entire industry is trying to be squeaky clean. But history shows that it pays to be sceptical with the investment banks. Indeed one of the handful of top executives at one of America’s leading investment banks told me: ‘Going forward, Spitzer’s reforms will turn out a complete failure. He could have gone for structure but didn’t. Keeping Spitzer away from the model was an extraordinary management achievement.’7 Andy Kessler, the former analyst and fund manager, was equally forthright: ‘It seems to me that Wall Street management reached into the pockets of their shareholders and paid big fines so they could keep the status quo.’8 The survival of integration beyond the global settlement, the role it played in the scandals during the last years of the twentieth century and the potential it leaves for future problems therefore make it essential to understand fully how it works.
Naive, foolish, cynical or greedy analysts had talked the market up at a time when cool, clear, conflict-free thinking might have prevented the excesses. If ever a group of professionals missed a chance to justify their existence and compensation, this was surely it. The investment bankers must also bear some responsibility. They brought many companies to the market that lacked a track record or a viable business plan. Andy Kessler, who moved from Morgan Stanley’s research department to the venture capital industry on the West Coast, believed that the investment bankers lowered their standards after the Netscape IPO of 1995: ‘Investment bankers used to insist on two consecutive quarters of profits before taking a company public. Now suddenly, it was all about growth – How quickly can you grow your sales? If you are doubling, we’d be happy to take you public.’5 It is extraordinary that none of them were able to see that so many of these companies lacked the infrastructure and management to flourish as listed entities.
Eat People: And Other Unapologetic Rules for Game-Changing Entrepreneurs by Andy Kessler
23andMe, Andy Kessler, bank run, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bob Noyce, British Empire, business cycle, business process, California gold rush, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, commoditize, computer age, creative destruction, disintermediation, Douglas Engelbart, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, fiat currency, Firefox, Fractional reserve banking, George Gilder, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, income inequality, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, libertarian paternalism, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, McMansion, Netflix Prize, packet switching, personalized medicine, pets.com, prediction markets, pre–internet, profit motive, race to the bottom, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, social graph, Steve Jobs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transcontinental railway, transfer pricing, wealth creators, Yogi Berra
Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd); Penguin Books Australia Ltd, 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd); Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi – 110 017, India; Penguin Group (NZ), 67 Apollo Drive, Rosedale, North Shore 0632, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd); Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R ORL, England First published in 2011 by Portfolio / Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) Inc. Copyright © Andy Kessler, 2011 All rights reserved LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATION DATA Kessler, Andy. Eat people : unapologetic rules for entrepreneurial success / Andy Kessler. p. cm. Includes index. eISBN : 978-1-101-47562-1 1. Entrepreneurship. 2. Technological innovations—Economic aspects. 3. New products. 4. Value. 5. Economics. I. Title. HB615.K396 2011 658.4’09—dc22 2010039727 Set in Minion Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the above publisher of this book.
The Glass Cage: Automation and Us by Nicholas Carr
Airbnb, Airbus A320, Andy Kessler, Atul Gawande, autonomous vehicles, Bernard Ziegler, business process, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Charles Lindbergh, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, computerized trading, David Brooks, deliberate practice, deskilling, digital map, Douglas Engelbart, drone strike, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, High speed trading, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jacquard loom, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, natural language processing, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, place-making, plutocrats, Plutocrats, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, software is eating the world, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, turn-by-turn navigation, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Langewiesche
He pointed to aviation as an example: “A computerized brain known as the autopilot can fly a 787 jet unaided, but irrationally we place human pilots in the cockpit to babysit the autopilot ‘just in case.’ ”1 The news that a person was driving the Google car that crashed in 2011 prompted a writer at a prominent technology blog to exclaim, “More robo-drivers!”2 Commenting on the struggles of Chicago’s public schools, Wall Street Journal writer Andy Kessler remarked, only half-jokingly, “Why not forget the teachers and issue all 404,151 students an iPad or Android tablet?”3 In a 2012 essay, the respected Silicon Valley venture capitalist Vinod Khosla suggested that health care will be much improved when medical software—which he dubs “Doctor Algorithm”—goes from assisting primary-care physicians in making diagnoses to replacing the doctors entirely.
.: Oxford University Press, 2005), 247. 58.Andy Clark, Natural-Born Cyborgs: Minds, Technologies, and the Future of Human Intelligence (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), 4. 59.Quoted in Fallows, “Places You’ll Go.” Chapter Seven: AUTOMATION FOR THE PEOPLE 1.Kevin Kelly, “Better than Human: Why Robots Will—and Must—Take Our Jobs,” Wired, January 2013. 2.Jay Yarow, “Human Driver Crashes Google’s Self Driving Car,” Business Insider, August 5, 2011, businessinsider.com/googles-self-driving-cars-get-in-their-first-accident-2011-8. 3.Andy Kessler, “Professors Are About to Get an Online Education,” Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2013. 4.Vinod Khosla, “Do We Need Doctors or Algorithms?,” TechCrunch, January 10, 2012, techcrunch.com/2012/01/10/doctors-or-algorithms. 5.Gerald Traufetter, “The Computer vs. the Captain: Will Increasing Automation Make Jets Less Safe?,” Spiegel Online, July 31, 2009, spiegel.de/international/world/the-computer-vs-the-captain-will-increasing-automation-make-jets-less-safe-a-639298.html. 6.See Adam Fisher, “Inside Google’s Quest to Popularize Self-Driving Cars,” Popular Science, October 2013. 7.Tosha B.
The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class by Joel Kotkin
Admiral Zheng, Andy Kessler, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, clean water, creative destruction, deindustrialization, demographic transition, don't be evil, Donald Trump, edge city, Elon Musk, European colonialism, financial independence, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, gig economy, Gini coefficient, Google bus, guest worker program, Hans Rosling, housing crisis, income inequality, informal economy, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, land reform, liberal capitalism, life extension, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, megacity, Nate Silver, new economy, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, Parag Khanna, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-industrial society, post-work, postindustrial economy, postnationalism / post nation state, precariat, profit motive, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, Richard Florida, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Sam Altman, Satyajit Das, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, superstar cities, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, trade route, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, We are the 99%, Wolfgang Streeck, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y Combinator
.: Belknap/Harvard, 2014), 174; “Richest people in the world,” CBS News, https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/richest-people-in-world-forbes/12/. 12 Carter Coudriet, “13 Under 40: Here Are The Youngest Billionaires On The Forbes 400 2019,” Forbes, October 31, 2019, https://www.forbes.com/sites/cartercoudriet/2019/10/02/forbes-400-youngest-under-40-zuckerberg-spiegel/#7fd35f5a5a0e. 13 Sally French, “China has 9 of the world’s 20 biggest companies,” Market Watch, May 31, 2018, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-has-9-of-the-worlds-20-biggest-tech-companies-2018-05-31. 14 Farhad Manjoo, “Tech’s ‘Frightful 5’ Will Dominate Digital Life for Foreseeable Future,” New York Times, January 20, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/technology/techs-frightful-5-will-dominate-digital-life-for-foreseeable-future.html; Dana Mattioli, “Takeovers Roar to Life as Companies Hear Footsteps From Tech Giants,” Wall Street Journal, November 20, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/takeovers-roar-to-life-as-companies-hear-footsteps-from-tech-giants-1511200327. 15 “Why startups are leaving Silicon Valley,” Economist, August 30, 2018, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/08/30/why-startups-are-leaving-silicon-valley; Rex Crum, “Let’s make a deal: SV150 firms spent $41 billion on acquisitions in 2016,” Mercury News, May 1, 2017, https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/05/01/lets-make-a-deal-acquisitions-were-all-over-the-sv150-in-2016/; “Too much of a good thing,” Economist, March 26, 2016, https://www.economist.com/brieing/2016/03/26/too-much-of-a-good-thing. 16 Christopher Mims, “Why Free Is Too High a Price for Facebook and Google,” Wall Street Journal, June 8, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-free-is-too-high-a-price-for-facebook-and-google-11559966411; Andy Kessler, “Antitrust Can’t Catch Big Tech,” Wall Street Journal, September 14, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/antitrust-cant-catch-big-tech-11568577387; David Dayen, “Trump’s Antitrust Cops Fail to Police Big Business—Again,” American Prospect, July 24, 2019, https://prospect.org/power/trump-s-antitrust-cops-fail-police-big-business-again/; Andrew Orlowski, “Google had Obama’s ear during antitrust probe,” Register, August 18, 2016, https://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/08/18/google_had_obamas_ear_on_antitrust_probe/. 17 Bryan Clark, “Facebook’s new ‘early bird’ spy tool is just tip of the iceberg,” Next Web, August 10, 2017, https://thenextweb.com/insider/2017/08/10/facebooks-new-early-bird-spy-tool-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg/#; Betsy Morris and Deepa Seetharaman, “The New Copycats: How Facebook Squashes Competition from Startups,” Wall Street Journal, August 9, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-copycats-how-facebook-squashes-competition-from-startups-1502293444. 18 Crunchbase, Google Acquisitions, updated January 15, 2020, https://wwwcrunchbase.com/organization/google/acquisitions/acquisitions_list#section-acquisitions; Ben Popper, “Failure is a feature: how Google stays sharp gobbling up startups,” The Verge, September 17, 2012, https://www.theverge.com/2012/9/17/3322854/google-startup-mergers-acquisitions-failure-is-a-feature; Tim Wu and Stuart A.
Wall Street Journal, October 3, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ben-franklin-who-1538608727; Colleen Flaherty, “The Vanishing History Major,” Inside Higher Ed, November 27, 2018, https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2018/11/27/new-analysis-history-major-data-says-ield-new-low-can-it-be-saved. 32 Henri Pirenne, Mohammed and Charlemagne (Cleveland: Meridian, 1957), 118; Roderick Seidenberg, Post-historic Man: An Inquiry (New York: Viking, 1974), 179. 33 Glenn Harlan Reynolds, “Robert Zubrin makes ‘The Case for Space,’” USA Today, May 7, 2019, https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/05/07/spacex-blue-origin-virgin-galactic-robert-zubrin-case-space-column/1119446001/. 34 David Pilling, Bending Adversity: Japan and the Art of Survival (New York: Penguin, 2014), 119, 177–79; Karel van Wolferen, The Enigma of Japanese Power: People and Politics in a Stateless Nation (New York: Knopf, 1989), 2–3. 35 Andy Kessler, “Zuckerberg’s Opiate for the Masses,” Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/zuckerbergs-opiate-for-the-masses-1497821885. 36 Catherine Clifford, “About half of Americans support giving residents up to $2000 a month when robots take their jobs,” CNBC, December 19, 2016, https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/19/about-half-of-americans-support-giving-residents-up-to-2000-a-month-when-robots-take-our-jobs.html. 37 Patrick Hoare, “European Social Survey (ESS) reveal findings about attitudes toward Universal Basic Income across Europe,” Basic Income, January 20, 2018, https://basicincome.org/news/2018/01/europe-european-social-survey-ess-reveal-findings-attitudes-toward-universal-basic-income-across-europe/; Andrew Russell, “What Do Canadians think of basic income?
Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future by Peter Thiel, Blake Masters
Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Andrew Wiles, Andy Kessler, Berlin Wall, cleantech, cloud computing, crony capitalism, discounted cash flows, diversified portfolio, don't be evil, Elon Musk, eurozone crisis, income inequality, Jeff Bezos, Lean Startup, life extension, lone genius, Long Term Capital Management, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, minimum viable product, Nate Silver, Network effects, new economy, paypal mafia, Peter Thiel, pets.com, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Singularitarianism, software is eating the world, Steve Jobs, strong AI, Ted Kaczynski, Tesla Model S, uber lyft, Vilfredo Pareto, working poor
Dale Earnhardt Jr. needn’t feel threatened by them, but the Guardian worries (on behalf of the millions of chauffeurs and cabbies in the world) that self-driving cars “could drive the next wave of unemployment.” Everyone expects computers to do more in the future—so much more that some wonder: 30 years from now, will there be anything left for people to do? “Software is eating the world,” venture capitalist Marc Andreessen has announced with a tone of inevitability. VC Andy Kessler sounds almost gleeful when he explains that the best way to create productivity is “to get rid of people.” Forbes captured a more anxious attitude when it asked readers: Will a machine replace you? Futurists can seem like they hope the answer is yes. Luddites are so worried about being replaced that they would rather we stop building new technology altogether. Neither side questions the premise that better computers will necessarily replace human workers.
Endless Money: The Moral Hazards of Socialism by William Baker, Addison Wiggin
Andy Kessler, asset allocation, backtesting, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, break the buck, Bretton Woods, BRICs, business climate, business cycle, capital asset pricing model, commoditize, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, debt deflation, Elliott wave, en.wikipedia.org, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, fiat currency, fixed income, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, German hyperinflation, housing crisis, income inequality, index fund, inflation targeting, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, laissez-faire capitalism, land reform, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, McMansion, mega-rich, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage tax deduction, naked short selling, negative equity, offshore financial centre, Ponzi scheme, price stability, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, rent control, reserve currency, riskless arbitrage, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, seigniorage, short selling, Silicon Valley, six sigma, statistical arbitrage, statistical model, Steve Jobs, stocks for the long run, The Great Moderation, the scientific method, time value of money, too big to fail, upwardly mobile, War on Poverty, Yogi Berra, young professional
Treasury and the Fed are set to give everybody a mulligan. The top 19 commercial banks are now explicitly backstopped from failure. Many if not most may still be nationalized should the crisis worsen beyond the assumptions of the not-so-stressful “stress test” regulators conducted in early 2009. Here is where Limbaugh veers away from conservatism: He quotes former hedge fund manager and Morgan Stanley semiconductor analyst Andy Kessler, who projects that the U.S. government will profit by as much as $2.2 trillion from its ownership of mortgages and derivatives obtained through the GSEs and the TARP bailout facility. Kessler may indeed be correct, and he hints that this would happen because “. . . the Treasury and the Federal Reserve get to cheat . . . with lots of levers (they) can and will pump capital into the U.S. economy to get it moving again.
“The Out of Control Tax Code,” Don’t Mess With Taxes weblog, April 17, 2008. Information sourced from the CCH Standard Federal Tax Reporter, a Notes 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 391 Walters Kluwer business. http://dontmesswithtaxes.typepad.com/dont_mess_ with_taxes/2008/04/the-out-of-cont.html. Limbaugh, Rush, Who Do You Trust?, Opening Monologue: September 25, 2008, http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_092508/content/ 01125108.guest.html. Ibid. Andy Kessler, “The Paulson Plan Will Make Money for Taxpayers,” Wall Street Journal, September 25, 2008, http://online.wsj.com/article/ SB122230704116773989.html?mod=googlenews_wsj. Rush, Limbaugh, Who Do You Trust?, Opening Monologue: September 25, 2008, http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_092508/content/ 01125108.guest.html. Rush Limbaugh Show, Hour Two, December 17, 2008. Donald Lambro, “GOP Aims For New Economic Agenda,” The Washington Times, November 23, 2008.
The Start-Up of You: Adapt to the Future, Invest in Yourself, and Transform Your Career by Reid Hoffman, Ben Casnocha
Airbnb, Andy Kessler, Black Swan, business intelligence, Cal Newport, Clayton Christensen, commoditize, David Brooks, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, fear of failure, follow your passion, future of work, game design, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joi Ito, late fees, lateral thinking, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, out of africa, Paul Graham, paypal mafia, Peter Thiel, recommendation engine, Richard Bolles, risk tolerance, rolodex, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social web, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Tony Hsieh, transaction costs
(More-draconian analysts predict a young person today will get nothing.) Consider the Social Security tax that comes out of your paycheck like you would a loan to a second cousin who has a drug problem—you might get paid back, but don’t count on it. 5. “Cost-Cutting Strategies in the Downturn: A Delicate Balancing Act,” May 2009, http://www.towerswatson.com/assets/pdf/610/CostCutting-RB_12–29–09.pdf 6. Andy Kessler, “Is Your Job an Endangered Species?” Wall Street Journal, February 17, 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703439504576116340050218236.html 7. See the links in Will Wilkinson’s discussion, “Are ATMs Stealing Jobs?” The Economist, June 15, 2011, http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/06/technology-and-unemployment 8. Alex Taylor III, Sixty to Zero (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2011), 14. 9.
Peers Inc: How People and Platforms Are Inventing the Collaborative Economy and Reinventing Capitalism by Robin Chase
Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Andy Kessler, banking crisis, barriers to entry, basic income, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, business climate, call centre, car-free, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, commoditize, congestion charging, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, decarbonisation, different worldview, do-ocracy, don't be evil, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Ferguson, Missouri, Firefox, frictionless, Gini coefficient, hive mind, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Lyft, means of production, megacity, Minecraft, minimum viable product, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, openstreetmap, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, peer-to-peer model, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, TaskRabbit, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, Turing test, turn-by-turn navigation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, Zipcar
Megan McArdle, “Why You Can’t Get a Taxi,” The Atlantic, May 2012. 12. “Taxicab,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxicab. 13. “Taxicabs of the United Kingdom,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxicabs_of_the_United_Kingdom#cite_note-The_Knowledge-3. 14. Jeff Bercovici, “Uber’s Ratings Terrorize Drivers and Trick Riders. Why Not Fix Them?” Forbes.com, August 14, 2014. 15. Andy Kessler, “Brian Chesky: The ‘Sharing Economy’ and Its Enemies,” Wall Street Journal, January 17, 2014. 16. “Freelancing in America: A National Survey of the New Workforce,” 2014, independent study commissioned by the Freelancers Union and ElanceoDesk, http://chaoscc.ro/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/freelancinginamerica_report-1.pdf. 17. Søren Mark Peterson, “Loser-Generated Content: From Participation to Exploitation,” First Monday 13, no. 3 (2008), http://firstmonday.org/article/view/2141/1948.
The New New Thing: A Silicon Valley Story by Michael Lewis
Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, business climate, creative destruction, data acquisition, family office, high net worth, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, pre–internet, risk tolerance, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, the new new thing, Thorstein Veblen, wealth creators, Y2K
He'd spent the last five years, and upended the U.S. economy, to get his hands on the one we'd just sailed across the Atlantic Ocean. "Hyperion is a beautiful boat," he said, and I knew when he said it what the next word would be. "But..." His finger traced the lines of his new boat, which was still no more than a figment of his imagination. Pure possibility. A smile lengthened across his face. Hyperion was nice, but this... this was the perfect boat. Page 269 Acknowledgments Andy Kessler and Fred Kittler introduced me to the Valley, and helped make this book what it is. Jim and Nancy Rutter Clark put up with a writer in ways that no one should have to. Clark has made a career of taking risks others avoid. He took another when he let me talk my way into his life, and I'll always be grateful for that. I'd also like to thank Pham Nguyen for checking my facts and Chris Wiman for checking my sentiment.
Only Humans Need Apply: Winners and Losers in the Age of Smart Machines by Thomas H. Davenport, Julia Kirby
AI winter, Andy Kessler, artificial general intelligence, asset allocation, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, business intelligence, business process, call centre, carbon-based life, Clayton Christensen, clockwork universe, commoditize, conceptual framework, dark matter, David Brooks, deliberate practice, deskilling, digital map, disruptive innovation, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, estate planning, fixed income, follow your passion, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Freestyle chess, game design, general-purpose programming language, global pandemic, Google Glasses, Hans Lippershey, haute cuisine, income inequality, index fund, industrial robot, information retrieval, intermodal, Internet of things, inventory management, Isaac Newton, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joi Ito, Khan Academy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, lifelogging, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Norbert Wiener, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, performance metric, Peter Thiel, precariat, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, social intelligence, speech recognition, spinning jenny, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, strong AI, superintelligent machines, supply-chain management, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Works Progress Administration, Zipcar
Two More Fields, Same Five Steps Now that you’ve got a clear understanding of the difference in the five ways of stepping, let’s think about how they translate to a couple of other realms of knowledge work: teaching and financial advising. As we’ve already noted, teachers are threatened in their roles as personalized curriculum designers and transmitters of content; technology can do both of these functions quite well. While some rabble-rousers (notably Andy Kessler, a former hedge fund manager) argue that teachers will (and should) disappear with the rise of these technologies, it’s more likely that teachers’ roles will simply adapt. We’re inclined to believe Thomas Arnett, a researcher on innovation in education, who predicts technology will “automate tasks such as taking attendance, handing back assignments, and checking multiple choice or fill-in-the-blank answers on tests and quizzes”—and even that it will “take care of some basic instruction and give [teachers] real-time data for tailoring lessons to student needs”—but that many aspects of teaching will remain too vital and essentially human to be replaced.14 Teachers who step up in a technology-rich environment will, for example, do the big-picture planning of curriculum units, and the overall questions of what must be taught.
An Optimist's Tour of the Future by Mark Stevenson
23andMe, Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, augmented reality, bank run, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, clean water, computer age, decarbonisation, double helix, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, flex fuel, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hans Rosling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of agriculture, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Leonard Kleinrock, life extension, Louis Pasteur, low earth orbit, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, off grid, packet switching, peak oil, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, social intelligence, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, strong AI, the scientific method, Wall-E, X Prize
More seriously, what’s the web of interactions between our genome and our day-to-day lives that triggers disease? Why is it that your sister always gets colds but you rarely do? Did Uncle Bob get heart disease due to one burger too many? Was it always written in his code? Or is he the victim of some yet unfound link between eating mustard sandwiches and working in a laundry? Why do some of us develop an allergy to latex? Why can a bee sting send skateboarding legend Andy Kessler into fatal cardiac arrest, but not me – and why is it the more times you’re stung, the more likely you are to develop a potentially fatal allergy? Or to put it another way, how does Keith Richards stay alive? At one end of the scale there are some conditions that are ‘in the genes.’ This is genetic determinism that’s as unforgiving as Richard Dawkins in a bible class. Huntington’s disease (which famously killed folk legend Woody Guthrie in 1967) is a good example.
The Upstarts: How Uber, Airbnb, and the Killer Companies of the New Silicon Valley Are Changing the World by Brad Stone
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Andy Kessler, autonomous vehicles, Ben Horowitz, Boris Johnson, Burning Man, call centre, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, collaborative consumption, East Village, fixed income, Google X / Alphabet X, housing crisis, inflight wifi, Jeff Bezos, Justin.tv, Kickstarter, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, Necker cube, obamacare, Paul Graham, peer-to-peer, Peter Thiel, race to the bottom, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ruby on Rails, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, semantic web, sharing economy, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, South of Market, San Francisco, Startup school, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, Tony Hsieh, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, ubercab, Y Combinator, Y2K, Zipcar
Brad Stone, “The New Andreessen,” Bloomberg.com, November 3, 2010, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-11-03/the-new-new-andreessen. Chapter 5: Blood, Sweat, and Ramen 1. “Disrupt Backstage: Travis Kalanick,” YouTube video, June 22, 2011, https://youtu.be/0-uiO-P9yEg. 2. Ilene Lelchuk, “Probe Clears 2 S.F. Elections Officials; Case Against 3rd Remains Unclear,” SFGate, December 12, 2001, http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Probe-clears-2-S-F-elections-officials-Case-2841381.php. 3. Andy Kessler, “Travis Kalanick: The Transportation Trustbuster,” Wall Street Journal, January 25, 2013, http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324235104578244231122376480. 4. “Disrupt Backstage: Travis Kalanick,” YouTube video. 5. “Travis Kalanick Startup Lessons from the Jam Pad—Tech Cocktail Startup Mixology,” YouTube video, May 5, 2011, https://youtu.be/VMvdvP02f-Y. 6. Max Chafkin, “What Makes Uber Run,” Fast Company, September 8, 2015, http://www.fastcompany.com/3050250/what-makes-uber-run. 7.
That Used to Be Us by Thomas L. Friedman, Michael Mandelbaum
addicted to oil, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Andy Kessler, Ayatollah Khomeini, bank run, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, centre right, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collective bargaining, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, energy security, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, full employment, Google Earth, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Lean Startup, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, mass immigration, more computing power than Apollo, Network effects, obamacare, oil shock, pension reform, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, WikiLeaks
Nonroutine low-skilled work can pay decently, depending on the local economy and how well that worker performs. But white- and blue-collar routine work shrinks, gets squeezed on pay, or just vanishes. The net result of the “rising demand for highly educated workers performing abstract tasks and for less-educated workers performing ‘manual’ or service tasks is the partial hollowing out or polarization of employment opportunities,” conclude Katz and Autor. Andy Kessler, a former hedge fund manager and the author of Eat People: And Other Unapologetic Rules for Game-Changing Entrepreneurs, published a piece in The Wall Street Journal (February 17, 2011) proposing an even simpler and more evocative typology of the new labor market: Forget blue-collar and white-collar. There are two types of workers in our economy: creators and servers. Creators are the ones driving productivity—writing code, designing chips, creating drugs, running search engines.
The Future of Ideas: The Fate of the Commons in a Connected World by Lawrence Lessig
AltaVista, Andy Kessler, barriers to entry, business process, Cass Sunstein, commoditize, computer age, creative destruction, dark matter, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, Donald Davies, Erik Brynjolfsson, George Gilder, Hacker Ethic, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, Howard Rheingold, Hush-A-Phone, HyperCard, hypertext link, Innovator's Dilemma, invention of hypertext, inventory management, invisible hand, Jean Tirole, Jeff Bezos, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Larry Wall, Leonard Kleinrock, linked data, Marc Andreessen, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, Network effects, new economy, packet switching, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, price mechanism, profit maximization, RAND corporation, rent control, rent-seeking, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, Richard Thaler, Robert Bork, Ronald Coase, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, smart grid, software patent, spectrum auction, Steve Crocker, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, Telecommunications Act of 1996, The Chicago School, transaction costs, zero-sum game
Yochai Benkler, “The Commons as a Neglected Factor of Information Policy,” (paper presented at the Telecommunications Policy Research Conference (October 5, 1998): 70. Thus, “the availability of a commons creates incentives that make possible decentralization of content-production.” Benkler, “The Commons,” 68. 8 “These units are so small as to make the transaction costs involved in negotiating allocation of exclusive property rights to them prohibitive.” Benkler, “Overcoming Agoraphobia,” 174. 9 See, e.g., Andy Kessler, velcap.com, “Steal This Bandwidth!,” e-mail on file with author, June 19, 2001 (“The FCC should set aside some not-for-profit spectrum specifically for wireless access, probably at the same time they auction 3G licenses, and keep encouraging the grassroots to run with new technology.”). 10 Telephone interview with Alex Lightman, January 31, 2001. 11 Ibid. 12 Telephone interview with Dave Hughes, November 13, 2000. 13 Federal Communications Commission, “Creation of Low Power Radio Service,” January 27, 2000, at http://www.fcc.gov/Bureaus/Mass_Media/Orders/2000/fcc00019.doc. 14 Harry First, “Property, Commons, and the First Amendment: Towards a Core Common Infrastructure” (White Paper of the First Amendment Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law, 2001), 42-44. 15 Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State, the Judiciary and Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 2001, H.R. 4942, enacting into law H.R. 5548, 106th Congress, Title VI §632 (2000) (enacted). 16 See Bob Brewin, “Airports Ground Use of Wireless: Safety, Loss of Income from Pay Phones Cited,” Computerworld (February 19, 2001): 1, http://computerworld.com/ cwi/story/0,1199,NAV47_STO57817_NLTpm,00.html. 17 The real aim of the airports, organized under “wirelessairport.org,” appears to be to develop a proprietary, exclusive architecture for wireless technologies within airports, to permit them to extract rents from the technology's use. 18 See, e.g., Hazlett, “The Wireless Craze,” 42 (“The burden of proof is on the potential entrant.
Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber by Mike Isaac
"side hustle", activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, always be closing, Amazon Web Services, Andy Kessler, autonomous vehicles, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, Bay Area Rapid Transit, Burning Man, call centre, Chris Urmson, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, corporate governance, creative destruction, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, family office, gig economy, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, high net worth, Jeff Bezos, John Markoff, Kickstarter, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, money market fund, moral hazard, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, off grid, peer-to-peer, pets.com, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Snapchat, software as a service, software is eating the world, South China Sea, South of Market, San Francisco, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, the payments system, Tim Cook: Apple, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, ubercab, union organizing, upwardly mobile, Y Combinator
Chapter 8: PAS DE DEUX 72 Roughly one third: Artturi Tarjanne, “Why VC’s Seek 10x Returns,” Activist VC Blog (blog), Nexit Adventures, January 12, 2018, http://www.nexitventures.com/blog/vcs-seek-10x-returns/. 74 Kalanick frequently compared: Amir Efrati, “Uber Group’s Visit to Seoul Escort Bar Sparked HR Complaint,” The Information, March 24, 2017, https://www.theinformation.com/articles/uber-groups-visit-to-seoul-escort-bar-sparked-hr-complaint. 75 “Software is eating the world”: Andreessen Horowitz, Software Is Eating the World, https://a16z.com/. 75 deals increased by 73 percent: Richard Florida and Ian Hathaway, “How the Geography of Startups and Innovation Is Changing,” Harvard Business Review, November 27, 2018, https://hbr.org/2018/11/how-the-geography-of-startups-and-innovation-is-changing. 75 billions invested post-2010: Center for American Entrepreneurship, “Rise of the Global Startup City,” Startup Revolution, http://startupsusa.org/global-startup-cities/. 75 emerged as the world’s epicenter: Center for American Entrepreneurship, “Rise of the Global Startup City.” 76 “to organize the world’s information”: “From the Garage to the Googleplex,” About, Google, https://www.google.com/about/our-story/. 76 controversial financial instrument: “The Effects of Dual-Class Ownership on Ordinary Shareholders,” Knowledge@Wharton, June 30, 2004, http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/the-effects-of-dual-class-ownership-on-ordinary-shareholders/. 77 “An Owner’s Manual For Google Investors”: Larry Page and Sergey Brin, “2004 Founders’ IPO Letter,” Alphabet Investor Relations, https://abc.xyz/investor/founders-letters/2004/ipo-letter.html. 77 $3.5-billion acquisition: “Snapchat Spurned $3 Billion Acquisition Offer from Facebook,” Digits (blog), Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2013, https://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/11/13/snapchat-spurned-3-billion-acquisition-offer-from-facebook/. Chapter 9: CHAMPION’S MINDSET 82 Kalanick once said onstage: Liz Gannes, “Travis Kalanick: Uber Is Raising More Money to Fight Lyft and the ‘Asshole’ Taxi Industry,” Recode, May 28, 2014, https://www.recode.net/2014/5/28/11627354/travis-kalanick-uber-is-raising-more-money-to-fight-lyft-and-the. 82 “There’s been so much corruption”: Andy Kessler, “Travis Kalanick: The Transportation Trustbuster,” Wall Street Journal, January 25, 2013, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324235104578244231122376480. 83 “we’re crushing it”: Alexia Tsotsis, “Spotted! Secret Ubers on the Streets of Seattle,” TechCrunch, https://techcrunch.com/2011/07/25/uber-seattle/. 84 “incredibly hot chicks”: Adam Withnall, “Uber France Apologises for Sexist Promotion Offering Men Free Rides with ‘Incredibly Hot Chicks’ as Drivers,” Independent, October 23, 2014, https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/uber-france-apologises-for-sexist-promotion-offering-men-free-rides-with-incredibly-hot-chicks-as-9813087.html. 87 “Could Uber reach a point”: Bill Gurley, “How to Miss by a Mile: An Alternative Look at Uber’s Potential Market Size,” Above the Crowd (blog), July 11, 2014, http://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11/how-to-miss-by-a-mile-an-alternative-look-at-ubers-potential-market-size/. 87 In a policy paper published: Travis Kalanick, “Principled Innovation: Addressing the Regulatory Ambiguity Ridesharing Apps,” April 12, 2013, http://www.benedelman.org/uber/uber-policy-whitepaper.pdf. 87 “nervous breakdowns”: Swisher, “Bonnie Kalanick.” 88 Kalanick would tweet: Travis Kalanick (@travisk), “@johnzimmer you’ve got a lot of catching up to do . . .
The Facebook Effect by David Kirkpatrick
Andy Kessler, Burning Man, delayed gratification, demand response, don't be evil, global village, happiness index / gross national happiness, Howard Rheingold, Jeff Bezos, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, Network effects, Peter Thiel, rolodex, Sand Hill Road, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, social graph, social software, social web, Startup school, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Whole Earth Review, winner-take-all economy, Y Combinator
The CEO Page 166 “I want to stress the importance of being young”: Mark Coker, “Start-Up Advice For Entrepreneurs, From Y Combinator Startup School,” Venturebeat, March 26, 2007, http://venturebeat.com/2007/03/26/start-up-advice-for-entrepreneurs-from-y-combinator-start-up-school/ (accessed November 28, 2009). 169 But at the end of March, BusinessWeek’s online edition: Steve Rosenbush, “Facebook’s on the Block,” BusinessWeek, March 28, 2006, http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/mar2006/tc20060327_215976.htm (accessed November 15, 2009). 170 But to Zuckerberg, what was more significant: Ibid. 171 Another imitator, which launched around the same time in China: Baloun, Inside Facebook, 95. 173 He also quoted a sociologist who speculated: Cassidy, “Me Media.” 174 who he had met while: Lacy, 162. 174 After some negotiation, Zuckerberg: Lacy, 162. 176 A week after the program launched: Rob Walker, “A For-Credit Course,” New York Times, September 30, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/30/magazine/30wwInconsumed-t.html (accessed December 27, 2009). 177 As part of the deal the ad giant: email from Brandee Barker, Facebook public relations, December 11, 2009. 9. 2006 Page 184 Peter Thiel, older but very sympathetic: Lacy, 165. 186 Some nights, unable to sleep: David Kushner, “The Baby Billionaires of Silicon Valley,” Rolling Stone, November 16, 2006, http://rollingstone.com/news/story/12286036/the_baby_billionaires_of_silicon_valley (accessed November 28, 2009). 186 “I hope he doesn’t sell it”: Kevin Colleran, interview with the author. 190 Within about three hours the group’s membership: Tracy Samantha Schmidt, “Inside the Backlash Against Facebook,” Time, September 6, 2006, www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1532225,00.html (accessed December 11, 2009). 190 And there were about five hundred other protest groups: Brandon Moore, “Student users say new Facebook feed borders on stalking,” Arizona Daily Wildcat, September 8, 2006, http://wildcat.arizona.edu/2.2257/student-users-say-new-facebook-feed-borders-on-stalking-1.177273 (accessed December 11, 2009). 190 “Chuck Norris come save us”: Layla Aslani, “Users Rebel Against Facebook Feature,” Michigan Daily, September 7, 2006, http://www.michigandaily.com/content/users-rebel-against-facebook-feature (accessed December 11, 2009). 190 “You shouldn’t be forced to have a Web log”: Moore, “Student Users.” 190 “I’m really creeped out”: Aslani, “Users Rebel.” 191 But Zuckerberg, in New York on a promotional trip: Andrew Kessler, “Weekend Interview with Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg,” Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2007, http://www.andykessler.com/andy_kessler/2007/03/wsj_weekend_int.html (accessed December 11, 2009). 10. Privacy Page 200 As one expert in privacy law recently asked: James Grimmelmann, “Saving Facebook,” Iowa Law Review (2009), http://www.law.uiowa.edu/journals/ilr/Issue%20PDFs/ILR_94–4_Grimmelmann.pdf (accessed December 11, 2009). 201 “At every turn, it seems Facebook makes it more difficult”: Marc Rotenberg, “Online Friends At What Price?
The Future of the Internet: And How to Stop It by Jonathan Zittrain
A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andy Kessler, barriers to entry, book scanning, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, c2.com, call centre, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, commoditize, corporate governance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, disruptive innovation, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, Firefox, game design, Hacker Ethic, Howard Rheingold, Hush-A-Phone, illegal immigration, index card, informal economy, Internet Archive, jimmy wales, John Markoff, license plate recognition, loose coupling, mail merge, national security letter, old-boy network, packet switching, peer-to-peer, post-materialism, pre–internet, price discrimination, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, RFC: Request For Comment, RFID, Richard Stallman, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Bork, Robert X Cringely, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, Skype, slashdot, software patent, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Ted Nelson, Telecommunications Act of 1996, The Nature of the Firm, The Wisdom of Crowds, web application, wikimedia commons, zero-sum game
Netanel argues that the sorts of principle-based checks in most democracies, such as antidiscrimination principles and equality in the basic rights of citizenship, are not sustainable in an unregulated cyberspace environment. As applied in this case, Netanel’s argument might cast doubt on the net worth of “tricks” or technologies that seem to simultaneously promote democracy and undermine state sovereignty. See id. at 412—27 (discussing cyberpopulism); cf Andy Kessler, Network Solutions, WALL ST. J., Mar. 24, 2007, at A11 (describing the communities enabled by Facebook, in which user-specified preferences and privacy are carefully maintained in order to facilitate user openness). 90. LAWRENCE LESSIG, CODE: VERSION 2.0, 309 (2006). 91. In this case, the distinction is not between conduct rules and decision rules, but between conduct rules and enforcement.
Extreme Money: Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk by Satyajit Das
affirmative action, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, Andy Kessler, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Basel III, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Black Swan, Bonfire of the Vanities, bonus culture, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business cycle, capital asset pricing model, Carmen Reinhart, carried interest, Celtic Tiger, clean water, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, corporate raider, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, debt deflation, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, discrete time, diversification, diversified portfolio, Doomsday Clock, Edward Thorp, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, eurozone crisis, Everybody Ought to Be Rich, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial independence, financial innovation, financial thriller, fixed income, full employment, global reserve currency, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, haute cuisine, high net worth, Hyman Minsky, index fund, information asymmetry, interest rate swap, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job automation, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Meriwether, joint-stock company, Jones Act, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, Kevin Kelly, laissez-faire capitalism, load shedding, locking in a profit, Long Term Capital Management, Louis Bachelier, margin call, market bubble, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, mega-rich, merger arbitrage, Mikhail Gorbachev, Milgram experiment, money market fund, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, mutually assured destruction, Myron Scholes, Naomi Klein, negative equity, NetJets, Network effects, new economy, Nick Leeson, Nixon shock, Northern Rock, nuclear winter, oil shock, Own Your Own Home, Paul Samuelson, pets.com, Philip Mirowski, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, price stability, profit maximization, quantitative easing, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, regulatory arbitrage, rent control, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, Right to Buy, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rod Stewart played at Stephen Schwarzman birthday party, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, Satyajit Das, savings glut, shareholder value, Sharpe ratio, short selling, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Slavoj Žižek, South Sea Bubble, special economic zone, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, survivorship bias, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, the market place, the medium is the message, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Nature of the Firm, the new new thing, The Predators' Ball, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, Turing test, Upton Sinclair, value at risk, Yogi Berra, zero-coupon bond, zero-sum game
The top five executives at Bear Stearns and Lehman pocketed cash bonuses exceeding $300 million and $150 million respectively (in 2009 U.S. dollars). Although the earnings on which the remuneration was based were reversed in 2008, the executives did not return the payments received.36 Salli Krawcheck, a former CFO at Citi, observed: “it’s better to be an investment bank employee than shareholder.”37 Andy Kessler, a former Wall Street research analyst, noted: “Wall Street is just a compensation scheme.... They literally exist to pay out half their revenue as compensation. And that’s what gets them into trouble every so often—it’s just a game of generating revenue, because the players know they will get half of it back.”38 There were crumbs from the bankers’ feast for all. Regulators were seduced with invitations to all-expense-paid lavish conferences and speaking engagements.
Too big to fail: the inside story of how Wall Street and Washington fought to save the financial system from crisis--and themselves by Andrew Ross Sorkin
affirmative action, Andy Kessler, Asian financial crisis, Berlin Wall, break the buck, BRICs, business cycle, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Emanuel Derman, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, fixed income, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, housing crisis, indoor plumbing, invisible hand, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, margin call, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, moral hazard, naked short selling, NetJets, Northern Rock, oil shock, paper trading, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, shareholder value, short selling, sovereign wealth fund, supply-chain management, too big to fail, value at risk, éminence grise
See http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2008/blinder.08.25.08.pdf. “statutory resolution regime for nonbanks”: Ben Bernanke, “Reducing Systemic Risk,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Annual Economic Symposium,” Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 22, 2008. Moody’s cuts its ratings: Jody Shenn, “Fannie, Freddie Preferred Stock Downgraded by Moody’s,” Bloomberg News, August 22, 2008. having shorted subprime before anyone else: Andy Kessler, “The Paulson Plan Will Make Money for Taxpayers,” Wall Street Journal, September 25, 2008. analyst report issued by Goldman Sachs raising questions about the firm: Hugh Son, “AIG Falls as Goldman Says a Capital Raise Is ‘Likely,’” Bloomberg News, August 19, 2008. As the company had warned in an SEC filing: Figures are from AIG’s 10-Q filing on August 6, 2008. AIG owning seventy-one state-regulated insurance subsidiaries: AIG issued a press release on September 18, 2008, assuring policyholders that their protection was a top priority.