Climatic Research Unit

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pages: 829 words: 186,976

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't by Nate Silver

"Robert Solow", airport security, availability heuristic, Bayesian statistics, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, business cycle, buy and hold, Carmen Reinhart, Claude Shannon: information theory, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, Donald Trump, Edmond Halley, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, Freestyle chess, fudge factor, George Akerlof, global pandemic, haute cuisine, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, housing crisis, income per capita, index fund, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Laplace demon, locking in a profit, Loma Prieta earthquake, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, Nate Silver, negative equity, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pets.com, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, security theater, short selling, Skype, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons

It assumes that the exact amount of carbon dioxide is known and that CO2 will continue to increase at the same annual rate that it did between 2002 and 2011. In practice, the model underestimates the error slightly—and therefore somewhat underestimates the chance of a cooling decade—because the exact amount of CO2 is an unknown, as well as because of any specification uncertainty in the model. 103. “Climatic Research Unit E-Mail Controversy;” Wikipedia.org. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_email_controversy. 104. Henry Chu, “Panel Clears Researchers in ‘Climategate’ Controversy,” Los Angeles Times, April 15, 2010. http://articles.latimes.com/2010/apr/15/world/la-fg-climate-data15-2010apr15. 105. Including those from satellite records processed by private companies. 106. “Climate of Fear;” editorial in Nature, 464, 141 (March 11, 2010). http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v464/n7286/full/464141a.html. 107.

But our political and cultural institutions are not so well-devised to handle these problems—not when the United States Congress faces reelection every two years and when businesses are under pressure to meet earnings forecasts every quarter. Climate scientists have reacted to this challenge in a variety of ways, some involving themselves more in the political debate and others keeping it at arm’s length. Michael Mann, who is director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, was once at the center of a controversy. “Climategate” concerned the hacking of a server at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia,103 which produces the temperature record that the UK’s Met Office uses. Skeptics alleged that Mann and other scientists had conspired to manipulate the CRU’s temperature record. The pertinent facts are that the scientists were cleared of wrongdoing by a panel of their peers,104 and that the CRU’s temperature record is quite consistent with the others105—but Mann and other scientists in the hacked e-mails demonstrated a clear concern with the public relations elements of how the science would be perceived.

Some scientists express a preference for the NASA/GISS record because it does a better job of accounting for the Arctic and a few other areas where temperature stations are sparse. This is potentially important because there has been more warming in the Arctic than in any other part of the globe. 64. Global Temperature Anomalies, National Atmospheric and Oceanic Association. ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/annual.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat. 65. Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt. 66. Japan Meteorological Agency. http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/climate/cpdinfo/temp/list/an_wld.html. 67. Note that the two satellite records use some of the same underlying data. 68. Some analyses have mistakenly used the satellite temperature records for the upper atmosphere rather than the lower atmosphere.


pages: 217 words: 61,407

Twilight of Abundance: Why the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short by David Archibald

Bakken shale, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, deindustrialization, energy security, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), means of production, mutually assured destruction, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, peak oil, price discovery process, rising living standards, sceptred isle, South China Sea, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War

The notorious Climategate emails,1 released on November 20, 2009, appear to show scientists manipulating data to produce the answers they desired, bullying those who disagreed with them, plotting against scientific journal editors, and deliberately concocting misleading figures, among other apparent acts of willful malfeasance. As one of the scientists caught up in the scandal, Phil Jones of the UK-based Climatic Research Unit, observed, “I’ve obviously written some really awful emails.” Although the global warming panic of the last twenty years has been a wasteful distraction for humanity, it has, thankfully, served one good purpose. Because the field of climate science was so corrupted by the huge sums of taxpayer money outlaid, testing of the alarmist claims required involvement by scientists from outside the climate field.

., 110–11 economy of, 77–78, 120 energy development, 113–15, 118–19, 159–65, 184 global cooling and, 4, 35, 179 grain requirements, 60, 67–68, 179 humiliation of, 111–13 as “New Core Country,” 77–78, 121 nuclear power and, 94, 96 “A Picture from a Possible Future” and, 125–35 plans for aggression, 3, 52–53, 74, 78, 102, 107–23, 175, 187 population of, 58, 60, 64–65 Christianity, 81–83 Churchill, Winston, 82–83 CIA, the, 33–35, 48, 83 Civilization: The West and the Rest, 75 Clarke, E., 27–28 “Clash of Civilizations?, The,” 107 Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, The, 107 Clilverd, M. A., 27 Climate Change Act of 2008 (UK), 6–7 Climategate, 12, 28–31 Climate Research, 29–30 Climatic Research Unit, the, 12 coal, 72, 154 China and, 114, 161–62, 164 UK and, 6, 184, 186 U.S. and, 143, 147–50 coal-to-liquids technology (CTL), 145–46 China and, 113–15, 164 Germany and, 146 as solution for U.S., 138, 145–52, 164, 172 Coal Question, The, 184 Cold War, the, 1, 85, 101 Communism, 4, 73, 85–86, 107 compressed natural gas (CNG), 145, 150–52 Concord, NH, 38 Constitution, the, 181 Coptic Christians, Copts, 51, 180 Core countries (“the Core”), 74, 77–81, 83, 121, 176, 180, 184 Corn Belt (U.S.), 2, 24–25, 39, 179 CSIRO, 28 Cultural Revolution, the (China), 112 D Dalton Minimum, 14–15, 18, 27–28 Dark Ages, the, 8–9, 47 “Darkness in July,” 40 De Bilt temperature record, 21 Decline of the West, The, x Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert, The, 28 DF-21D missiles, 94, 110, 126–27, 129, 134 Djibouti, 53 Dobu Island, 32 E Earth, the, 90, 166, 180 climate of, 5, 12–27, 33–34, 47, 80, 168–69, 177 as “Gaia,” 8 life on, 12, 165, 180 East Africa, 23, 51 East Anglia, 29 East Texas Oilfield, 3 Eddy, John A., 22, 37–38 Eddy Minimum, 22–23 Egypt, Egyptians collapse of, 48–51, 61, 63, 97, 178–80 food/grain and, x, 48–51, 63, 68, 95 weapons of, 92, 94, 96–97, 120 Einstein, Albert, 86 El Niño, 13–14, 177 Energy Information Administration (EIA), 114, 143–44 England, 25, 39–40.


pages: 258 words: 77,601

Everything Under the Sun: Toward a Brighter Future on a Small Blue Planet by Ian Hanington

agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, Exxon Valdez, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), oil shale / tar sands, stem cell, sustainable-tourism, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, urban planning, urban sprawl

Meanwhile, evidence that our fossil-fuel addiction contributes to dangerous climate change and harms the environment in other ways mounts every day, with oil spills, pipeline leaks, and other events. Let’s take a look at some of what we are now learning. Six independent investigations have found that the unimaginatively named Climategate was anything but the scandal or “nail in the coffin of anthropogenic global warming” that deniers claimed. After the illegal theft and release of emails from scientists at the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, some reports found that the scientists could have been more open about sharing data; however, their science was rigorous and sound. The University of East Anglia has since posted its research and data online, and all of the emails in question have also been posted. As for criticisms of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s global assessment of climate change, a review found that despite “a very small number of near-trivial errors in about five hundred pages,” the report contained “no errors that would undermine the main conclusions.”

It’s time to listen to the people who continue to look at the facts in the face of baseless accusations, break-ins, and threats. We need to listen to those who are trying to do something about our predicament rather than wishing it away. Where’s the climate conspiracy? PEOPLE WHO DENY the reality of human-caused global warming were wetting their pants over the hacked emails brouhaha at the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. In their desperation, the deniers claimed the emails pointed to a global conspiracy by the world’s scientists and government leaders to... Well, it’s hard to say what they believed the conspiracy was about. A letter to a Vancouver newspaper on December 21, 2007, indicates the way many of them think. The writer claimed that people working to address global warming “are ideological zealots pursuing a quasi-religious socialist agenda to command and control western economies.”


pages: 692 words: 127,032

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Berlin Wall, Brownian motion, carbon footprint, Cepheid variable, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, commoditize, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, desegregation, different worldview, double helix, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fudge factor, ghettoisation, global pandemic, Harlow Shapley and Heber Curtis, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, sharing economy, smart grid, Solar eclipse in 1919, stem cell, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, University of East Anglia, War on Poverty, white flight, Winter of Discontent, working poor, yellow journalism, zero-sum game

Anti-cap-and-trade opponents were gearing up for a “civil war” and the “greatest part of that battlefield is the global warming battle,” according to energy-industry-shill Lord Christopher Monckton, a British journalist with no particular expertise in climate science who travels America eruditely calling global warming “bullshit.”53 Obama’s delay gave opponents the time and ammunition they needed to regroup. CLIMATEGATE On November 17, 2009, the battle was rejoined. Days before the start of the Copenhagen climate summit, an unidentified hacker posted on a Russian FTP server a sixty-one-megabyte file containing e-mails stolen from servers at England’s University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The hacker then posted a link to the file on the climate skeptic blogs The Air Vent54 and Watts Up with That?55 as well as the blog RealClimate, which is run by several leading climate scientists, including Michael Mann.56 The CRU is one of the world’s leading centers for climate research and a hub of global climate science communication. The file contained thousands of private e-mails exchanged by top climate scientists over more than thirteen years.

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e. from 1981 onwards) amd [sic] from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. Thanks for the comments, Ray. Cheers Phil Prof. Phi l Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx NR4 7TJ UK As in the polar bear case, a five-prong propaganda attack was employed: phony science; canned stories via bloggers for the press; AM talk radio and partisan cable news reaction and outrage; government intervention; and hand-wringing by the real actors, our much-maligned and patriotic heroes.

., 11, 15–17, 32–33, 155, 171–73, 189–91, 286 Bush, Vannevar, 74–75, 79, 85, 87, 110, 148, 150 Butylated hydroxytoluene, 139–40 C Cable news, 150, 208–9 Calvin’s Case (Coke), 40, 55 “Cap and tax,” 223–24 Cap and trade system, 200, 223–26, 268 Carbon dioxide (CO2), 187–89, 222, 230–31, 233 Carnegie, Andrew, 61, 309 Carson, Rachel, 96 Castaneda, Carlos, 114 Chapman, Matthew, 7, 54 Chargaff, Erwin, 78, 120 Charles I, 45–46 Chemberlin, Peg, 297–98, 300, 302, 304 China, 58, 220, 285–86 Christian Right, 110–12, 163 Church of England, 46 Churchland, Patricia, 118 Churnalism, 195, 203–5 Chu, Steven, 199–200 Cicerone, Ralph, 216, 229, 291 Civil rights movement, 120–21 Civil war of values, 111, 163–66, 171 Climate change anthropogenic, 227 bullying of scientists and, 214–16 Bush (George W.) and, 189–91 cable news and, 208–9 carbon dioxide and, 187–89, 222, 230–31, 233 churnalism and, 195, 203–5 conflict frame of, 180–82, 203–5 Congressional hearing on, 218–21 Cornwall Alliance and, 260–61 cost of addressing, 227 Democratic Party and, 290 denial of, 221–23 divide-and-conquer strategy and, 228–29 e-mail scandal and, 200–205, 210–12, 214–15, 291 economics and, 223–24 energy conservation and, 240–41 Europe and, 261–62 Fraud Against Taxpayers Act and, 217–18 glacial melting and, 192–95, 211–13 government allies and, 210–11 hockey stick graph and, 198–99, 201, 214 insurance cost of, 263–67 IPCC report and, 199, 212–13 Johnson and, 226–27 just world belief and, 282–84 Kyoto Protocol and, 189, 191 lobbyists and, 195, 198, 224–26, 239 media and, 194–95, 203–5 National Academies’ report on, 190–91 natural disasters and, 264–65 polar bears and, 192–97 politics of, 6–7, 189–91, 224–26, 236–40 propaganda strategy, five-prong, 195–98, 205, 211 Republican Party and, 290 science of, 187–89, 220, 301 scientists’ letter to Congress and, 206–8 solutions, 228–29 South Dakota’s resolution and, 216–17 sulfur aerosol injection, 228–29, 232–36 SuperFreakonomics and, 229–32 suppression of knowledge and, 220–21 talk radio and, 205–6 U.S. presidents and, 226–27 Climate Change Act (Great Britain), 261 Climate change bill, 214, 223 “Climategate,” 200–205, 210–12, 291 Climate Research Unit (CRU), 200–205, 210–12, 214–15 Clinton, Hillary, 8 CO2, 187–89, 222, 230–31, 233 Cobern, William, 125 Cogley, Graham, 211 Coke, Edward, 40–41, 44, 46, 48, 51, 55 Cold war rivalry, 79–85, 93–95, 237 Collectivism, 249–50, 299–300 “Command and control” method, 266 Commoditization, 312–13 Communication, 183 Communism, 83. See also Soviet Union Competitiveness, economic, 155–56 Complexity of world, 6, 34, 122 Conant, John B., 75 Concept collapse, 118 Conflict frame, 180–82, 203–5 Conservapedia.com, 287–88 Conservativism, 59–61, 131, 284–85, 287–88 Consilience, 4 Copernicus, 23, 120 Cornwall Alliance, 260–61, 299–300 Correctness, political, 130 Cosmos (television show), 105 Costanza, Robert, 259, 265, 267 Creationism, 15, 18, 164–70, 178, 184–85 Crick, Francis, 78 CRU, 200–205, 210–12, 214–15 Crutzen, Paul, 229 Cuban Missile Crisis, 93–94 Cuccinelli, Ken, 217–18 Cultural studies, 128–29 Culture wars, 123–24, 129, 149, 163, 177–81 Curtis, Heber, 67 Cynicism of baby boomers, 97–99 D Darrow, Clarence, 65 Darwin, Charles, 64, 99, 117, 168.


pages: 369 words: 98,776

The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas

Airbus A320, back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Haber-Bosch Process, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Negawatt, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, planetary scale, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, Stewart Brand, undersea cable, University of East Anglia

Indeed, climate denialists became so successful in 2009 that they managed to dominate the media agenda via a series of manufactured scandals that engulfed much of the climate-science community. Deniers promoting the so-called “Climategate” affair took a few out-of-context quotes and superficially embarrassing private slips by leading scientists from some leaked emails and nearly managed to publicly discredit not only the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia but several other leading institutes too. Vociferous promoters of a subsequent scandal took a single mistake about Himalayan glaciers, buried deep in the second weighty tome of the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, and used it to attack the entire IPCC process, and the role of Chair Rajendra Pachauri in particular. None of this changed anything we knew—anything that mattered—about the reality of climate change, but the deniers succeeded in making climate science an ideological battleground, where the expert consensus was rejected by whole political parties and large sections of the media as itself partisan.

cadmium calcium carbonate Calcutta Cambrian explosion Canada Cancún, UN climate change meeting, 2010 “cap and trade” programs carbon: cycle; offsetting/markets capture and storage (CCS); price; politics of; black carbon dioxide emissions: planetary boundary for Carbon Trade Watch cars see vehicles Cartagena Dialogue Cato Institute CFCs Cheatneutral.com Chernobyl Chesser, Robert China 21 coal power in; nuclear power in; dam construction; “night soil” industry; meat eating in; demand for fossil fuels; alternatives to high carbon aviation; hydroelectricity; virtual water and; pollution incidents; aerosol pollution; black carbon and; transport pollution; emissions standards; CFC production; Copenhagen summit and; population growth; vehicle ownership, growth in emissions; food production; investment in low-carbon technologies Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning Climate Action Network Climate Action Partnership climate change: carbon offsetting/markets and; deniers; extinction and; boundary see climate change boundary; tipping points; methane and; agreements/negotiations; nitrates worsen; solar radiation management and; see also carbon dioxide emissions, China, individual agreement/negotiation name, nuclear power, population, renewables under individual event and area name climate change boundary; 350: current evidence; 350: modeling evidence; 350: past evidence; toward a technofix?; technologies for new technologies for the future; politics of carbon; sea level rise; Arctic thaw and; destabilization of Atlantic Ocean circulation; models Climate Fix, The (Pielke Jnr) “Climategate”, 2009 Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia Clinton, Bill Club of Rome coal power Cochabamba, Bolivia Collapse (Diamond) Colorado River Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas Condit Dam Congo Basin Forest Fund Congress, US Convention on Biological Diversity, Nagoya, 2010 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, 1979 COP15 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Copenhagen Accord Copenhagen climate summit, 2009 coral reefs Corporate Watch Costa Rica Costanza, Robert Cretaceous Period Crookes, William Crutzen, Paul Current Opinion in Plant Biology Cyclone Nargis Da Silva, Luiz Inácio Lula Dai, Aiguo Daly, Herman Dampier, William dams, removing unnecessary; hydroelectric; Chinese construction of; fishery collapse and; tidal barrages; block natural flow of water; threaten species; affects water temperature; water trapped behind loses most of its sediment load; current water use; where water is taken from Danish Committee on Scientific Dishonesty DDT Dead Sea dead zones deep-sea floating turbines deforestation Delta smelt “demographic transition” Dhaka Diamond, Jared diesel engines Dinorwig, Wales DuPont Earth: goldilocks state; self-regulating; “snowball”; ice-albedo feedback; see also carbon: cycle “earthshine” East Antarctic Ice Sheet Economics of Ecosystems & Biodiversity, The (TEEB) report, 2010 Economist Ecuador Edwards Dam Egypt electric vehicles Endangered Species Act, U.S.


pages: 379 words: 99,340

The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium by Martin Gurri

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Arthur Eddington, Ayatollah Khomeini, bitcoin, Black Swan, Burning Man, business cycle, citizen journalism, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collective bargaining, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, currency manipulation / currency intervention, dark matter, David Graeber, death of newspapers, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, facts on the ground, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, housing crisis, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, job-hopping, Mohammed Bouazizi, Nate Silver, Occupy movement, Port of Oakland, Republic of Letters, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, too big to fail, traveling salesman, University of East Anglia, urban renewal, War on Poverty, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, young professional

Amateurs have swarmed into the precincts of science along many fronts. For the purpose of this chapter, it should be enough for me to touch, however lightly, on two revealing incidents. The first began with a familiar ritual: the public, in control of the information sphere, maneuvered in a fashion utterly surprising to authority. On November 19, 2009, someone who had hacked thousands of emails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, Britain, released them to the public on an obscure Russian server. The names on the emails belonged to the most eminent climatologists involved in global warming research, and included many of the leading contributors to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The release had a pointedly political purpose. A gathering of world leaders to coordinate policy on climate change was scheduled for December in Copenhagen.

I believe the public judged science more severely than the scientific institutions judged themselves. I grant that this, too, is hard to prove: there are no measurements of public trust in science before and after Climategate that I am aware of. There is no data going back to 1919. Existing surveys show a significant decline in trust,[108] yet I suspect they understate the case: many people, when asked about science, still think of Einstein rather than the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia. They fondly recall the solitary seeker after truth and fail to see the master bureaucrat. Only when focused on specific issues does the public admit, even to itself, the full measure of its distrust. People on the left believe that science is a tool of Big Business, that scientists are willing to poison us with genetically modified food and torture laboratory animals to earn a bigger profit for their paymasters.


pages: 436 words: 98,538

The Upside of Inequality by Edward Conard

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, assortative mating, bank run, Berlin Wall, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, corporate governance, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, future of work, Gini coefficient, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, informal economy, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the telephone, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, liquidity trap, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, offshore financial centre, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, survivorship bias, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, total factor productivity, twin studies, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, University of East Anglia, upwardly mobile, War on Poverty, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population, zero-sum game

Hence, science demands randomized double-blind trials—where neither the subjects nor the researchers know which group is the experimental group and which group is the counterfactual control group. But the very thing scientific experiments endeavor to overcome—selection bias—fiercely drives real-world outcomes. If I sound too cynical, consider another research area in which natural results are seldom repeatable and where the conclusions are politically charged—climate change. In 2009 hackers revealed e-mails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia that raised questions about the institution’s objectivity. The British government called upon the independent Science Assessment Panel to investigate these claims. While the panel absolved the university, it found it “very surprising that research in an area that depends so heavily on statistical methods has not been carried out in close collaboration with professional statisticians.”17 These findings are hardly reassuring of wholly unbiased research.

Cambridge, MA: New York City Charter Schools Evaluation Project September 2009, http://users.nber.org/~schools/charterschoolseval/how_NYC_charter_schools_affect_achievement_sept2009.pdf. 16. Joshua Angrist, Parag Pathak, and Christopher Walters, “Explaining Charter School Effectiveness,” Institute for the Study of Labor, April 2012, http://ftp.iza.org/dp6525.pdf. 17. Ron Oxburgh et al., “Report of the International Panel Set up by the University of East Anglia to Examine the Research of the Climatic Research Unit,” University of East Anglia, April 14, 2010, http://www.uea.ac.uk/documents/3154295/7847337/SAP.pdf/a6f591fc-fc6e-4a70-9648-8b943d84782b. 18. Joshua Angrist, Susan Dynarski, Thomas Kane, Parag Pathak, and Christopher Walters, “Who Benefits from KIPP?” IZA Discussion Paper No. 5690 (May 2011), http://economics.mit.edu/files/6965. 19. Mike Klonsky, “NAACP Resolution on Charter Schools,” National Education Policy Center, January 3, 2012, http://nepc.colorado.edu/blog/naacp-resolution-charter-schools. 20.


pages: 441 words: 136,954

That Used to Be Us by Thomas L. Friedman, Michael Mandelbaum

addicted to oil, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Andy Kessler, Ayatollah Khomeini, bank run, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, business process, call centre, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, centre right, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collective bargaining, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, energy security, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, full employment, Google Earth, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Lean Startup, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, mass immigration, more computing power than Apollo, Network effects, obamacare, oil shock, pension reform, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, WikiLeaks

True, the consequences of the ongoing increase in the global temperature could turn out to be more benign than the forecasts of most climate scientists. Let’s hope that they do. But they could also turn out to be worse—much worse. You would not know that, though, from reading the newspapers in 2010. Climate skeptics, many funded by the fossil-fuel industries, seized on a few leaked e-mails among climate scientists working with Great Britain’s University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit to gin up a controversy about the conduct of some of its scientific investigators. Whatever one thinks of this specific case, it hardly invalidates the scientific consensus on global warming based on independent research conducted all over the world, nor do a few minor mistakes in the UN’s massive Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. But for a public too busy to take the time to study these issues, without the background to appreciate fully how little these errors touched on the larger scientific certainties and disinclined to ask why and how climate scientists all over the world could organize a vast conspiracy to get people to believe this problem was more serious than it is, these news stories created doubt and confusion about the issue and helped to stall any U.S. climate legislation.

(Fiorina) Cummings, Elijah Cuttino, Phyllis CVS pharmacies Czechoslovakia D Darwin, Charles Das, Paul Masih Dawn (newspaper) Dean, Howard DeBenedictis, Erika Alden Declaration of Independence Deere, John Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency deficits: education; trade; see also budget deficits Degrees of Separation (Brooking Institution) Delaware DeLay, Tom Dell, Michael Delta Airlines Democracy (Adams) Democracy in America (Tocqueville) Democratic Party; campaign contributions to; economic and fiscal policies of; energy and climate policies of; entitlement programs and; Leadership Council; news media and; origins of; polarization of Republican Party and Democratic-Republicans Dempsey, General Martin Denmark deregulation Detroit; Regional Workforce Fund Dietrich, Marlene Dillon, Sam Dimon, Jamie Disneyland Dixiecrats DNA Dodd, Chris Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010) Doerr, John Dole, Bob Domenici, Pete Douglas, Michael Dow Jones Industrial Average Drudge Report Druid City Arts Festival Duke University Duncan, Arne DuPont Corporation E Earth Policy Institute East Anglia, University of, Climate Research Unit Eastman Machine Company Eat People (Kessler) Economist, The Edison, Thomas education; in Army; attainment levels; businesses and; in California; in China; during Cold War; Colorado as model for reform of; community role in; cuts in spending for; higher (see also specific colleges and universities); history of government support for; improvement in quality of; income inequality and; innovation and; IT revolution and; neighbors and; parents’ role in; religious, of Muslims; responsibility of students for; in Singapore; Teach for America as model program for; teachers and principals and; Tea Party and; underperformance of; workforce and Education, U.S.


pages: 552 words: 168,518

MacroWikinomics: Rebooting Business and the World by Don Tapscott, Anthony D. Williams

accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, Ben Horowitz, bioinformatics, Bretton Woods, business climate, business process, buy and hold, car-free, carbon footprint, Charles Lindbergh, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cloud computing, collaborative editing, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, colonial rule, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, demographic transition, disruptive innovation, distributed generation, don't be evil, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fault tolerance, financial innovation, Galaxy Zoo, game design, global village, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, hive mind, Home mortgage interest deduction, information asymmetry, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jaron Lanier, jimmy wales, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, medical bankruptcy, megacity, mortgage tax deduction, Netflix Prize, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shock, old-boy network, online collectivism, open borders, open economy, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, scientific mainstream, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, social web, software patent, Steve Jobs, text mining, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, value at risk, WikiLeaks, X Prize, young professional, Zipcar

From decisions about whether to regulate a new technology, to the ongoing need to assess the impacts of urban development on the local ecology, objective scientific analysis is often central to the formulation of effective public policies. As the intermingling of science and public policy intensifies in an era of new global risks, questions about how scientists relate to the public and how the public relates to science are becoming critical. Nothing illustrates the challenges better than the recent “climategate” scandal in which a large stash of e-mails from and to investigators at the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia provided more than enough evidence for concern about the way some climate science is done. The science discussed in the e-mails is mostly from one small area of climate research—the taking of raw temperature data from thermometers, satellites, and proxy measures of historical climate such as tree rings and turning it into usable information on temperature trends.

In turn, they accuse their attackers of conflating McIntyre’s legitimate technical criticism of their methods with “unsupported, unjustified and unverified accusations of scientific mal-conduct that confused the public.” They were partially vindicated when the U.S. House of Representatives’ Science and Technology Committee concluded in March 2010 that there was, in fact, no evidence to support charges that the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit or its director, Phil Jones, had tampered with data or perverted the peer review process to exaggerate the threat of global warming. Moreover, the committee noted that nothing in the more than one thousand stolen e-mails challenged the scientific consensus that “global warming is happening and that it is induced by human activity.” Still, that doesn’t mean that Jones and colleagues are off the hook.


pages: 558 words: 168,179

Dark Money: The Hidden History of the Billionaires Behind the Rise of the Radical Right by Jane Mayer

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Legislative Exchange Council, anti-communist, Bakken shale, bank run, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, centre right, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collective bargaining, corporate raider, crony capitalism, David Brooks, desegregation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, energy security, estate planning, Fall of the Berlin Wall, George Gilder, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, job automation, low skilled workers, mandatory minimum, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, Mont Pelerin Society, More Guns, Less Crime, Nate Silver, New Journalism, obamacare, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Powell Memorandum, Ralph Nader, Renaissance Technologies, road to serfdom, Robert Mercer, Ronald Reagan, school choice, school vouchers, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Chicago School, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, Unsafe at Any Speed, War on Poverty, working poor

Given Obama’s position, time seemed to be running out for the fossil fuel forces and their free-market allies. Then, on November 17, 2009, an anonymous commenter on a contrarian Web site declared, “A miracle has happened.” With lethal timing, an unidentified saboteur had hacked expertly into the University of East Anglia’s Web site and uploaded thousands of internal e-mails detailing the private communications of the scientists working in its famed Climatic Research Unit. The climatologists at the British university had been in constant communication with those in America, and now all of their unguarded professional doubts, along with their unguarded and sometimes contemptuous asides about their opponents, stretching all the way back to 1996, were visible for the entire world to read. Chris Horner, a conservative climate contrarian working at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, another pro-corporate think tank subsidized by oil and other fossil fuel fortunes, including the Kochs’, declared, “The blue dress moment may have arrived.”

Mann says, “The disaffected, the people who have trouble putting dinner on the table, were being misled into believing that action on climate change meant that ‘They’ want to take away your freedom and probably your guns, too. There was a very skillful campaign to indoctrinate them,” he said. “We’ve seen Second Amendment enthusiasts take action against abortion doctors. There’s an attempt to paint us as villains in the same way.” He was not alone in receiving death threats. Several climatologists, he said, including Phil Jones, director of the hacked Climatic Research Unit in Great Britain, felt compelled to hire personal bodyguards. “Luckily,” Mann relates, both the Penn State investigations—which the legislature required to be done a second time in greater depth—and another one by the inspector general of the National Science Foundation, essentially the highest scientific body in the United States, exonerated Mann. “It lasted two years. It came out well.


pages: 285 words: 86,174

Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy by Chris Hayes

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, asset-backed security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, carried interest, circulation of elites, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, dark matter, David Brooks, David Graeber, deindustrialization, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, fixed income, full employment, George Akerlof, Gunnar Myrdal, hiring and firing, income inequality, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Julian Assange, Kenneth Arrow, Mark Zuckerberg, mass affluent, mass incarceration, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, money market fund, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, Nate Silver, peak oil, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rolodex, The Spirit Level, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, Vilfredo Pareto, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce

A publication could devote itself entirely to reporting truthfully on, say, the allegations and charges of sexual assault against Assange, and yet it’s hard to imagine Assange would simply tip his cap to them for being “truthful.” If WikiLeaks’ exposure of the American security state shows the possibilities of Assange’s vision, its decision to post a massive trove of e-mails and documents from climate scientists at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit shows its limitation. The ten years’ worth of private e-mail correspondence between climate scientists within UEA and elsewhere revealed a group of academics who viewed themselves as under siege from well-funded and disingenuous critics, not to mention a group contemptuous and defensive toward their outside skeptics—not necessarily a flattering picture. But according to critics of global warming, the e-mails also showed the scientists to be guilty of genuine scientific fraud, plotting secretly to manipulate data to strengthen their case that the earth is warming as a result of increased carbon emissions.


pages: 358 words: 93,969

Climate Change by Joseph Romm

carbon footprint, Climatic Research Unit, decarbonisation, demand response, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, failed state, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), knowledge worker, mass immigration, performance metric, renewable energy transition, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, the scientific method

“The UK’s Hadley Centre record simply excludes this area, whereas the NASA version assumes its surface temperature is the same as that of the nearest land-based stations.” That is one reason we know with high certainty that the planet has actually warmed up more in the past decade than reported by some of the global temperature records, especially the Met Office, which uses “HadCRUT” data developed by the Hadley Center with the Climate Research Unit ([CRU] Norwich, UK). In December 2013, researchers showed that these “missing” data had caused a large part of the supposed slowdown in the Met office data.10 German Climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf summarized the findings this way: A new study by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic.


pages: 357 words: 100,718

The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows

agricultural Revolution, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dematerialisation, demographic transition, financial independence, game design, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), longitudinal study, means of production, new economy, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review

WWF, Living Planet Report 1999 (Gland, Switzerland: WWF, 1999), 8. 91. R. T. Watson et al., Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2001). Also available along with numerous illustrations atwwwipcc.ch. 92. For a colorful presentation of the skeptic's view on climate and all other environmental issues, see Lomborg, Environmentalist. 93. See the vastly informative Web site of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, www.cru.uea.ac.uk. 94. See, for example, "Global Warming. Stormy Weather," Time, November 13, 2000, 35-40, with regional weather forecasts for Europe to 2050. 95. Watson et al., Climate Change 2001. 96. These data come from ice cores drilled deep into the Antarctic ice sheet. The polar ice has accumulated over thousands of years, layer after layer, and in each layer are trapped tiny air bubbles, preserved from prehistoric times.


pages: 400 words: 94,847

Reinventing Discovery: The New Era of Networked Science by Michael Nielsen

Albert Einstein, augmented reality, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, Cass Sunstein, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dark matter, discovery of DNA, Donald Knuth, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, fault tolerance, Fellow of the Royal Society, Firefox, Freestyle chess, Galaxy Zoo, Internet Archive, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Johannes Kepler, Kevin Kelly, Magellanic Cloud, means of production, medical residency, Nicholas Carr, P = NP, publish or perish, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, selection bias, semantic web, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Singh, Skype, slashdot, social intelligence, social web, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Nature of the Firm, The Wisdom of Crowds, University of East Anglia, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge

This is a natural consequence of the fact that while our attention doesn’t scale, sharing knowledge does. In an open-but-filtered world there is no problem with people such as Grothendieck pursuing their own solitary program. Won’t open science sometimes be used for ends that many scientists find distasteful? In November of 2009, hackers broke into a computer system in one of the world’s leading centers for climate research, the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, in the UK. The hackers downloaded more than 1,000 email messages sent between climate scientists. They then leaked the emails (and many other documents) to bloggers and journalists. The incident received worldwide media attention, as many climate change skeptics seized upon the emails, claiming that they contained evidence to prove that the notion of human-caused climate change was a conspiracy among climate scientists.


pages: 364 words: 101,193

Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Climatic Research Unit, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Live Aid, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, price stability, South China Sea, supervolcano

., 2003: ‘Climate change at the 4.2 ka BP termination of the Indus valley civilization and the Holocene south Asian monsoon variability’, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 8, 1425 p. 177 rainfall declines: Raisanen, J., et al., 2004: ‘European climate in the late twenty-first century: regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios’, Climate Dynamics, 22,13-31 p. 177 heatwaves: Holt, T., and Palutikof, J., 2004: The Effect of Global Warming on Heat Waves and Cold Spells in the Mediterranean, Prudence Deliverable D5A4, Climatic Research Unit p. 177 200 to 500 per cent increase: Diffenbaugh, N., et al., 2007: ‘Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot’, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L11706 p. 177 Switzerland: Beniston, M., and Diaz, H., 2004: ‘The 2003 heat wave as an example of summers in a greenhouse climate? Observations and climate model simulations for Basel, Switzerland’, Global and Planetary Change, 44, 73-81 p. 177 England: Brabson, B., et al., 2005: ‘Soil moisture and predicted spells of extreme temperatures in Britain’, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D05104 p. 178 temperatures on the continent: Rowell, D., 2005: ‘Ascenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century: seasonal means and interannual variability’, Climate Dynamics, 25, 837-49 p. 178 Caspian Sea: Elguindi, M., and Giorgi, F., 2006: ‘Projected changes in the Caspian Sea level for the 21st century based on the latest AOGCM models’, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L08706 p. 178 ‘hot spots’: Giorgi, F., 2006: ‘Climate change hot spots’, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L08707 p. 180 snow will be a rarity: Snow cover duration from graph Fig. 3 in Beniston, M., et al., 2003: ‘Snow pack in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions: an empirical approach for climate impacts studies’, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 74,19-31 p. 180 3,000 metres: Beniston, M., et al., 2003: ‘Estimates of snow accumulation and volume in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions’, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 76,125-40 p. 180 glaciers will vanish: Zemp, M., et al., 2006: ‘Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades?’


pages: 324 words: 96,491

Messing With the Enemy: Surviving in a Social Media World of Hackers, Terrorists, Russians, and Fake News by Clint Watts

4chan, active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Chelsea Manning, Climatic Research Unit, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Donald Trump, drone strike, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Filter Bubble, global pandemic, Google Earth, illegal immigration, Internet of things, Julian Assange, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, Mikhail Gorbachev, mobile money, mutually assured destruction, obamacare, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, pre–internet, side project, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, The Wisdom of Crowds, Turing test, University of East Anglia, Valery Gerasimov, WikiLeaks, zero day

Internet hosting providers waxed and waned as Western governments, particularly the United States, placed enormous pressure on WikiLeaks’ technical backbone, seeking to take the outlet offline. Until the U.S. presidential election of 2016, surprisingly few questioned the validity of Assange’s attacks on the West and particularly on the United States. Most overlooked a curious bit of WikiLeaks history, the first glimpse of which occurred on November 17, 2009. WikiLeaks posted email messages between climate scientists at the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The emails in the raw were used by climate change skeptics to show global warming to be a conspiracy. The CRU claimed that the emails were nothing more than healthy dialogue between researchers. Some investigating the CRU’s breach thought the leaks may have come from Russia, noting signatures that could have been tracked back to “a small web server in the formerly closed city of Tomsk in Siberia.”5 The source of the hacks remains an unsolved puzzle but the suggestion of a connection between Russia and WikiLeaks, curiously, would surface again less than a year later.


pages: 349 words: 98,868

Nervous States: Democracy and the Decline of Reason by William Davies

active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Amazon Web Services, bank run, banking crisis, basic income, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, citizen journalism, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, Colonization of Mars, continuation of politics by other means, creative destruction, credit crunch, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, discovery of penicillin, Dominic Cummings, Donald Trump, drone strike, Elon Musk, failed state, Filter Bubble, first-past-the-post, Frank Gehry, gig economy, housing crisis, income inequality, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Johannes Kepler, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mont Pelerin Society, mutually assured destruction, Northern Rock, obamacare, Occupy movement, pattern recognition, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, planetary scale, post-industrial society, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, road to serfdom, Robert Mercer, Ronald Reagan, sentiment analysis, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, smart cities, statistical model, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, Turing machine, Uber for X, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, Valery Gerasimov, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

Meanwhile, more and more information is revealed about public figures, to the point where it becomes virtually impossible to judge them on the basis of their public words alone. Social media archives and email leaks allow the world to view and criticize their behavior, whether or not it is obviously relevant to their public status and credibility. The email hacking scandal known as “Climategate” saw thousands of emails being leaked from the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit in 2009–11, aimed at undermining both the authority of climate science but also the neutrality and objectivity of climate scientists themselves. This form of trolling follows the logic of encryption and interception, and harnesses them as weapons of cultural war. The enemy is rendered as transparent as possible, while the perpetrator remains opaque. Forums that might traditionally have been viewed as civil spaces of reasoned dialogue become reconfigured as spaces of ad hominem attack.


pages: 417 words: 109,367

The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, business cycle, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, Peter Calthorpe, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve

For example, in January 2015 the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that there is 38 percent chance that 2014 was warmer than 2010 or 2005, the next two warmest years in the NOAA records. The independent climate research group Berkeley Earth also concluded that 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850 while noting, however, that within the margin of error, it is tied with 2005 and 2010. The UK Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit at University of East Anglia ranked 2014 as tied with 2010 for the warmest year in the record, but added that the uncertainty ranges mean it’s not possible to definitively say which of several recent years was the warmest. Climatologists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville have been tracking global temperatures for the past thirty-six years using satellite data that measure the bottom five miles of the atmosphere.


pages: 326 words: 48,727

Hot: Living Through the Next Fifty Years on Earth by Mark Hertsgaard

addicted to oil, Berlin Wall, business continuity plan, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth, en.wikipedia.org, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fixed income, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kickstarter, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, peak oil, Port of Oakland, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, the built environment, transatlantic slave trade, transit-oriented development, University of East Anglia, urban planning

By late 2009, key parts of the media in the United States and internationally had reverted to their long-standing posture of scientific illiteracy and de facto complicity with the deniers' disinformation campaign. As the Copenhagen climate summit began in December 2009, almost every major news organization in the world gave front-page coverage to the deniers' unfounded accusations of widespread fraud on the part of leading climate scientists. Quoting people out of context and cherry-picking data, the deniers accused scientists at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in Britain of falsifying results and then lying about it, and of conspiring to suppress dissenting views. The only news organization that took the time to investigate rather than merely echo these charges was the Associated Press. A team of AP reporters read and analyzed each of the 1,073 stolen e-mails, a total of about 1 million words of text. The AP found that some of the East Anglia scientists had said nasty things about deniers—hardly a surprise, considering all the nasty things deniers had said about them.


pages: 1,773 words: 486,685

Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century by Geoffrey Parker

agricultural Revolution, British Empire, Climatic Research Unit, colonial rule, creative destruction, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Defenestration of Prague, Edmond Halley, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, failed state, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, friendly fire, Google Earth, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Johannes Kepler, Joseph Schumpeter, Khyber Pass, mass immigration, Mercator projection, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, Republic of Letters, sexual politics, South China Sea, the market place, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, unemployed young men, University of East Anglia, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

At certain revolutions all the damned Are brought: and feel by turns the bitter change Of fierce extremes, extremes by change more fierce, From beds of raging fire to starve in ice Their soft ethereal warmth, and there to pine Immovable, infixed, and frozen round Periods of time; thence hurried back to fire.45 Epilogue: ‘It's the climate, stupid’1 ONCE UPON A TIME, THE HISTORY OF CLIMATE WAS A ‘HOT TOPIC’. IN 1979 the World Meteorological Organization, the United Nations Environment Programme, the National Science Foundation, the Ford Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation paid for 250 historians, geographers, archaeologists and climatologists from 30 countries to attend the first international ‘Conference on Climate and History’, hosted by the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (England) – a unit sponsored by (among others) British Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell. Cambridge University Press later published a volume containing the most innovative of the conference papers. That same year, the World Meteorological Organization created the ‘World Climate Program’ with a mandate to ‘insert climatic considerations into the formulation of rational policy alternatives’.

Thanks also to Derrin Culp, Kate Epstein, Daniel Headrick, James Lenaghan and Angela Nisbet, and to Greg Wagman and a group of gifted Honors Students at Notre Dame University for helpful references and suggestions. 2. I thank Christian Pfister and Martin Parry for sharing with me their recollections of the 1979 conference. Sanderson, The history, 285, notes BP and Shell sponsorship of the Climatic Research Unit, founded in 1971 as part of the University of East Anglia's School of Environmental Sciences. The Cambridge University Press volume was Wigley, Climate and history. 3. Report of the World Food Conference, Rome, 5–16 November 1974 (New York, 1975), 6–8 (at FAORLC-41001WorldFoodConference doc, accessed 9 Mar. 2012. Note that in 1981, two years after the University of East Anglia conference, Amartya Sen published his influential Poverty and famines, arguing that famine reflected faulty distribution rather than defective production: see page 108 above. 4.

(i) Alps (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Alsace (i) Alte Veste (near Nuremberg) (i) Althusius, Johannes (i), (ii) Amakusa Shirō (i) Amboina (i) Ambuila (i) America (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv), (xxxv), (xxxvi), (xxxvii), (xxxviii), (xxxix), (xl), (xli), (xlii), (xliii), (xliv), (xlv), (xlvi), (xlvii), (xlviii), (xlix), (l), (li), (lii), (liii), (liv), (lv), (lvi), (lvii), (lviii), (lix), (lx), (lxi), (lxii), (lxiii), (lxiv), (lxv), (lxvi), (lxvii), (lxviii), (lxix), (lxx), (lxxi), Plate 19, Fig. 42 Amsterdam (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), Plate 26 Amur, river (i) Anatolia (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), Fig. 21 Andalusia (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), Figs. 11, 28 Andreä, Johan Valentin (i) Andrea, Vincenzo d' (i), (ii), (iii) Andros, Sir Edmund (i) Andrusovo, Truce of (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) n 83, Fig. 19 Angier, Elizabeth (i), (ii) Anglo-Dutch Wars (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Angola (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), Fig. 44 Anhui (i) Anne of Austria, queen regent of France (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Annese, Gennaro (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Anti-war sentiment (i) Antigua (i) Antrim, Randall MacDonnell, marquis of (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Appalachians (i), (ii), (iii) Appleby, Andrew (i) Apprentices (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii) Aquitaine (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Arabia (i), (ii) Aragon (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii) Archie the Fool, see Armstrong, Archibald Arcos, Rodrigo Ponce de León, duke of (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Ardales (i) Arequipa (i) Argentina (i), (ii), (iii) Argyll, Archibald Campbell earl and marquis of (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Aristocracy (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv), (xxxv), (xxxvi), (xxxvii), (xxxviii), (xxxix), (xl), (xli), (xlii), (xliii), (xliv), (xlv), (xlvi), (xlvii), (xlviii), (xlix), (l) n 43, (li) n 54, (lii) n 7 Arkansas, river (i) Armagh, County (i) Armies, see Soldiers Arminians (i), (ii) Arminius, Jacob (i) Armstrong, Archibald (‘Archie the Fool’), (i), (ii), (iii) Arnauld, Angélique (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Arnauld, Antoine (i) Arnauld d'Andilly, Robert (i), (ii) Arpaja, Francesco (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Arson, see Fires Asai Ryōi (i), (ii), (iii) Ashmole, Elias (i) Aston, John (i) Atlantic Ocean (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), Figs. 42 and 46 Aubrey, John (i), (ii) n 16 Augsburg (i), (ii), (iii) Aurangzeb, Mughal Emperor of India (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi) Auria, Vincenzo (i), (ii), (iii) n 64 Australia (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Austria (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), 546, (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Austria, Don Juan of (i), (ii), (iii) Avraamii (i), (ii), (iii) Ayamonte, Francisco Manuel Silvestre de Guzmán y Zúñiga, marquis of (i), (ii), (iii) n 86 Azores (i), (ii) Azov (i), (ii), (iii) Bacharach, Naphtali ben Jacob (i) Bacon, Francis, Viscount St Albans (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi) n 22 Bacon, Nathanael (i), (ii), (iii) Bahía (i), (ii), (iii) Baillie, Robert (i), (ii) Baily, Charles (i) Bainbridge, John (i) Balde, Jacob 602, Plate (i) Balfour, Sir James (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Balkans (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), Fig. 21 Balkh (i) Le Balp, Sébastien (i) Balthasar Carlos, Crown Prince of Spain (i), (ii) Baltic (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii) Bamberg (i) Banda Islands (i) Baptisms, see Births Barbados (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi) Barbon, Nicholas (i) Barbot, Jean (i), (ii) Barcelona (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), Fig. 12 Barley, see Cereals Baronius, Francesco (i) Basel (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Bashō Matsuo (i) Basing House (i) Bass, Thomas (i) Bassadonna, Pietro (i) Bastwick, John (i) Batavia (Jakarta) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) n 2 Batencourt, Jacques de (i) Bavaria (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii) Baxter, Richard (i) Beauvaisis (i) Bedford, Francis Russell earl of (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Beer (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii) Beijing (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv) Beik, William (i) Belarus (i), (ii) Belgorod (i), (ii), (iii) Belgorod Line (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), Fig. 19 Belgrade (i) Belle-Île (i) Bellièvre, Pomponne de (i) Benedict, Philip (i) Bengal (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Bentley, William (i) Berenguer, Eufràsia (i) Bergen-op-Zoom (i) Berkeley, Sir William (i), (ii), (iii) Berkshire (i), (ii), Fig. 13 Bermuda (i), (ii) Bern (i), (ii) Bernier, François (i) Berry, Mary Elizabeth (i), (ii) Berwick, Pacification of (i), (ii) Biafra (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Bianco, Francesco (i) Biaojia Qi (i) Bible (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii) n 37 Bijapur (i) Bílá Hora, see White Mountain Bilbao (i) Birago Avogadro, Giovanni Battista (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Births (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), Figs. 14, 15, 27, 29, 40, see also Abortion, Contraception, Foundlings, Illegitimacy, Infanticide Bisaccione, Majolino (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Biscay, see Vizcaya Bitola (i) Black Sea (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Bloch, Marc (i) Bohemia (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii) n 37, Plate 13 Bohorques Girón, Pedro (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Boix y Moliner, Miguel Marcelino (i) Bolitho, Harold (i) Bonde, Gustav (i) Bondi, Hermann (i) Bone (i) Book of Common Prayer (i), (ii), (iii) Bordeaux (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi) Borneo (i), see also Indonesia Bosporus (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Bossuet, Jean-Bénigne (i), (ii) n 43, (iii) n 76 Boston (Lincolnshire) (i) Boston (Massachusetts) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x) Botero, Giovanni (i) Bouillon, Frédéric-Maurice de La Tour d'Auvergne, duke of (i) Boyle, Robert (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii) Brabant (i), (ii) Bradstreet, Anne (i) Bragança, Duke John of, see John IV, king of Portugal Brandenburg (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii) Brattle, Thomas (i) Braudel, Fernand (i) Bray, Francesca (i) Brazil (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv) Bread, see Cereals Brecke, Peter (i), Breda (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Breda, Declaration of (i) Breisach (i), (ii), (iii) Breitenfeld, battle of (i) Bremen (i) Briffa, Keith (i) Brinton, Crane (i), (ii) Britain, see Great Britain Brittany (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Brokaw, Cynthia (i), (ii) Brook, Timothy (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Broussel, Pierre (i), (ii), (iii) n 49 Brown, Edward (i) Brunswick-Wolfenbüttel, Duke Augustus of (i), (ii) Brussels (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix) Buckingham, George Villiers duke of (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii) n 66 Buddhists (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi) n 65, (xii) nn 12–13 Buenos Aires (i) Bunyan, John (i), (ii) Burgos (i) Burgundy (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Burke, Edmund (i) Burma (i), (ii) Burton, Henry (i) Burton, Robert (i), (ii), (iii) Burton-on-Trent (i) Butler, Samuel (i), (ii) n 61 Butts, Henry (i) Bygdeå (i), (ii) Byron, George Gordon, Lord (i) Cade, Jack (i), Cádiz (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii) Caen (i), (ii) Cahiers de doléances (i), (ii) Cairo (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii) Calabria (i), (ii) Calculus (i), (ii) n 48 Caldera de Heredía, Gaspar (i) Calderón de la Barca, Pedro (i), (ii) n 6 Calderwood, David (i) Callao (i) Callot, Jacques (i), (ii) Caltabellotta (i), (ii) Calvin, John (i), (ii) Calw (i) Cambodia (i) Cambridge (Massachusetts) (i) Cambridge University (England) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii) Cambridgeshire (i) Cambrils (i), (ii), (iii) Cameroon Highlands (i) Campbell, Bruce (i), (ii) Canada (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) Cane, Scott (i) Cannibalism (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) n 34 Canton (Guangzhou) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii) Capaccio, Giulio Cesare (i) Cape of Good Hope (i) Cape Horn (i) Carafa, Don Giuseppe Plate (i) Carlisle, Lucy countess of (i) Carlos II, king of Spain (Carlos I of Portugal) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Carlowitz (i) Carlton, Charles (i) Carolus, Johan (i) Cartagena (i) Carter, Ann (i) Cary, Mary (i) Casale (i), (ii) Caspian Sea (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Cassini, Giandomenico (i), (ii) n 73 Castile (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), Fig. 29 Castronuovo (i) Catalonia (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv), (xxxv), (xxxvi), (xxxvii), (xxxviii), (xxxix), (xl), (xli), (xlii), (xliii), (xliv), (xlv), (xlvi), (xlvii), (xlviii), (xlix) n 24, Figs 12, 26 Catania (i) Catholics, Roman (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix) Caucasus (i), (ii) n 18 Cavendish, William, see Newcastle, marquis of Cefalù (i) Çelebi, Evliyā (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Çelebi, Kâtib (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii) Censorship (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii) n 36 Cereals (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv), (xxxv), (xxxvi), (xxxvii), (xxxviii), (xxxix), (xl), (xli), (xlii), (xliii), (xliv), (xlv), (xlvi), (xlvii), (xlviii), (xlix), (l), (li), (lii), (liii), (liv), (lv), (lvi), (lvii), (lviii), (lix), (lx), (lxi) Cervantes Saavedra, Miguel de (i), (ii) Ceuta (i), (ii) Ceylon (Sri Lanka) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Chad, Lake (i), (ii), Fig. 45 Chambonneau, Louis Moheau de (i) Champaigne, Philippe de (i) Champlain, Samuel de (i) Channel Isles (i) Chardin, Jean (i), (ii) Charity (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii) Charles I, king of Great Britain (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv), (xxxv), (xxxvi), (xxxvii), (xxxviii), (xxxix), (xl), (xli), (xlii), (xliii), (xliv), (xlv), (xlvi), (xlvii) n 66, (xlviii) n 39, (xlix) nn 8–9, Plate 3 Charles II, king of Great Britain (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi) Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Charles IX, king of Sweden, (i) Charles X Gustav, king of Sweden (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Charles XII, king of Sweden (i), (ii) Charles, king of Spain, see Carlos II Châtelet, Gabrielle Émilie Le Tonnelier de Breteuil, marquise du (i) Chen Bangyan (i) Chen Zhilong (i), (ii) Chesapeake Bay (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii) n 30, (viii) n 35 Cheshire (i) Chikamatsu Monzaemon (i) Children (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv), (xxxv), (xxxvi), (xxxvii), (xxxviii), (xxxix), (xl), (xli), (xlii), (xliii), (xliv), (xlv), (xlvi), (xlvii), (xlviii), (xlix), (l), (li), (lii), (liii), (liv), (lv), (lvi), (lvii), (lviii), (lix), (lx), (lxi) n 77, (lxii) n 80, Plate 17, Fig. 15 Chile (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii) China (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv), (xxxv), (xxxvi), (xxxvii), (xxxviii), (xxxix), (xl), (xli), (xlii), (xliii), (xliv), (xlv), (xlvi), (xlvii), (xlviii), (xlix), (l), (li), (lii), (liii), (liv), (lv), (lvi), (lvii), (lviii), (lix), (lx), (lxi), (lxii), (lxiii), (lxiv), (lxv), (lxvi), (lxvii), (lxviii), (lxix), (lxx), (lxxi), (lxxii), (lxxiii), (lxxiv), (lxxv), (lxxvi), (lxxvii), (lxxviii), (lxxix), (lxxx), (lxxxi), (lxxxii), (lxxxiii), Plates 5, 7, 8, 17, 24, Figs 8, 16, 17 Chinggis Khan (i) Chishima Current (i) Chistyi, Nazarii (i), (ii) Chocolate (i) Chongzhen, emperor of China (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix) Christchurch (New Zealand) (i) Christian IV, king of Denmark (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix) Christianity, see Catholics, Orthodox, Protestants Christina, queen of Sweden (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi) Chumacero, Don Juan (i), (ii), (iii) n 61 Churchill, Sir Winston (i) Ciampoli, Giovanni (i), (ii) n 38 Cinci Hoja (i) Cinq-Mars, Henri Coiffier de Ruzé, Marquis de (i) Cities (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv), (xxxv), (xxxvi), (xxxvii), (xxxviii), (xxxix), (xl), (xli), (xlii), (xliii), (xliv), (xlv), (xlvi), see also Fires Clarendon, earl of, see Hyde, Edward Claris, Pau (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Clarke, Aidan (i) Classical learning (in China) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi) Classical learning (in Europe) (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), Fig. 27 Claustration, see Convents Clergy (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi), (xvii), (xviii), (xix), (xx), (xxi), (xxii), (xxiii), (xxiv), (xxv), (xxvi), (xxvii), (xxviii), (xxix), (xxx), (xxxi), (xxxii), (xxxiii), (xxxiv), (xxxv), (xxxvi), (xxxvii), (xxxviii), (xxxix), (xl), (xli), (xlii), (xliii), (xliv), (xlv), (xlvi), (xlvii), (xlviii), (xlix), (l), (li), (lii), (liii), (liv), (lv), (lvi), (lvii), (lviii), (lix), (lx), (lxi), (lxii), (lxiii) Climate, see Little Ice Age Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia (i) Coal (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii) n 46 Cochrane, John (i) Cocks, Richard (i) Coffee (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi) Coimbra (i), (ii) Colbert, Jean-Baptiste (i), (ii), (iii) Colchester (i), (ii), (iii) Coldstream Guards (i) Coleraine (i) Cologne (i) Colombo (i), (ii) Comenius, Jan Amos (i) Comets (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi) n 73 ‘Commonwealth’ (British, English) (i), (ii) Composite states (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii) n 46 Le Comte, Louis (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Concepción de Chile (i) Condé, Louis de Bourbon, prince of (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii) n 94 Confessors, royal (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) n 34, (v) n 7 Confucius, Confucianism (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii) n 46 Congress of Westphalia, see Westphalia Connecticut (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) Connolly, Owen (i), (ii) n 74 Constantine the Great (i), (ii) Contingency (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x), (xi), (xii), (xiii), (xiv), (xv), (xvi) Contraception (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) n 49, see also Abortion, Births, Foundlings, Infanticide Convents (i), (ii), (iii), (iv), (v), (vi), (vii), (viii), (ix), (x) n 60, (xi) n 62, (xii) nn 12–13 Cook, Harold J.


pages: 1,373 words: 300,577

The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World by Daniel Yergin

"Robert Solow", addicted to oil, Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, borderless world, BRICs, business climate, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, cleantech, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, colonial rule, Colonization of Mars, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, diversification, diversified portfolio, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, financial innovation, flex fuel, global supply chain, global village, high net worth, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, life extension, Long Term Capital Management, Malacca Straits, market design, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mohammed Bouazizi, mutually assured destruction, new economy, Norman Macrae, North Sea oil, nuclear winter, off grid, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, Piper Alpha, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Robert Metcalfe, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Sand Hill Road, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, smart grid, smart meter, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Stuxnet, technology bubble, the built environment, The Nature of the Firm, the new new thing, trade route, transaction costs, unemployed young men, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, Yom Kippur War

And given the meltdown on Wall Street, some were hardly enthusiastic about creating a vast new financial market in trading carbon. After the Republicans won the House of Representatives in 2010, a climate legislation became even less likely. “THE HEALTH OF THE HIMALYAS” More or less concurrent with Copenhagen was a chipping away of the credibility of the IPCC itself. In what became known as climategate, somebody hacked into the e-mails of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in England, which was one of the main research centers supporting climate research and the work of the IPCC. To many climate scientists and activists, the e-mails were being taken out of context and grossly misconstrued. But the way others read the e-mails was that some prominent scientists had turned to “tricks” to come out with the results they had wanted and went out of their way to denigrate and isolate those who might disagree.

., demand shock and Doriot, Georges Dow Chemical Drake, Edwin Draper, William, III Dreamliner drop-ins (fungible molecules; green molecules) drought Dubai Dudek, Daniel Dukakis, Michael Dunham, Archie DuPont chemical company Dutch disease dynamic pricing E10 gasoline E85 fuel “Early Oil,” Earth Day (1970) Earth Day (1990) earthquakes, in Japan Earth Summit (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development) East Anglia, University of, Climatic Research Unit at Eastern Europe fall of communism in East Ohio Gas Company East Siberia-Pacific Ocean Pipeline East Texas oil field Eberhard, Martin economies of scale electricity and Economist economy, world , air-conditioning and Asian financial crisis and China in climate change and demand shock and East Asia in effects of Fukushima accident on electric car and electricity and energy security and global trade and hinges of India in Libya and natural gas and oil and Qatar in renewables and resource adequacy and Russia and sovereign wealth funds in Soviet Union and economy and economic growth of Asian tigers Caspian Derby and climate change and electricity and of emerging markets energy security and integration of oil and of petro-states see also specific countries Edison, Thomas Edison General Electric Edison Illuminating Companies education EEVs (emissions elsewhere vehicles) efficiency, energy in buildings of China by design of France fuel of industry mottainai and of natural gas of natural monopoly technology and Top Runner program and U.S.


Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth by Stuart Ritchie

Albert Einstein, anesthesia awareness, Bayesian statistics, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, citation needed, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, complexity theory, coronavirus, correlation does not imply causation, COVID-19, Covid-19, crowdsourcing, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, double helix, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Estimating the Reproducibility of Psychological Science, Growth in a Time of Debt, Kenneth Rogoff, l'esprit de l'escalier, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Milgram experiment, mouse model, New Journalism, p-value, phenotype, placebo effect, profit motive, publication bias, publish or perish, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, recommendation engine, rent-seeking, replication crisis, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Scientific racism, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Stanford prison experiment, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Pinker, Thomas Bayes, twin studies, University of East Anglia

After all, if we’ve learned one thing from this book, science will, quite often, go wrong. The science historian Alex Csiszar discusses the case of climate change, where skeptics have invoked a fairy-tale image of scientific publishing as the bedrock of legitimate consensus only to profess outrage when it turns out not to live up to this fantasy. This reaction was exemplified by the reaction to the leak of thousands of emails and documents from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in November 2009. The emails seemed to reveal climate scientists engaging in secretive behavior and politicking with peer review. Evidence that scientific life behind the printed pages of journals was not a precise reflection of its better-behaved public face was seized upon by commentators to argue that the bottom had fallen out.18 Climate science, as it happens, is an apt example.