Broken windows theory

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pages: 578 words: 131,346

Humankind: A Hopeful History by Rutger Bregman

Airbnb, Anton Chekhov, basic income, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Broken windows theory, call centre, David Graeber, Donald Trump, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Hans Rosling, invention of writing, invisible hand, knowledge economy, late fees, Mahatma Gandhi, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, Nelson Mandela, New Journalism, placebo effect, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Stanford prison experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transatlantic slave trade, tulip mania, universal basic income, World Values Survey

Within a matter of hours, ordinary passers-by had demolished the car. The researcher’s name? Philip Zimbardo! Zimbardo’s car experiment, never published in any scientific journal, was the inspiration for the broken windows theory. And just like his Stanford Prison Experiment, this theory has since been thoroughly debunked. We know, for instance, that the ‘innovative’ policing of William Bratton and his Brattonistas was not responsible for the drop in New York City’s crime rates at all. The decline set in earlier, and in other cities, too. Cities like San Diego, where the police left minor troublemakers alone. In 2015, a meta-analysis of thirty studies on broken windows theory revealed that there’s no evidence Bratton’s aggressive policing strategies did anything to reduce crime.33 Zip, zero, zilch. Neighbourhoods aren’t made safer by issuing parking tickets, just as you couldn’t have saved the Titanic by scrubbing the deck.

Professor Wilson was steadfast to the end, maintaining right up to his death in 2012 that the Brattonista approach was a huge success. Meanwhile, his co-author was plagued by mounting doubts. George Kelling felt the broken windows theory had been too often misapplied. His own concern had always been about the broken windows themselves, not the arrest and incarceration of as many black and brown people as possible. ‘There’s been a lot of things done in the name of Broken Windows that I regret,’ Kelling admitted in 2016. When he began hearing police chiefs all over the country invoke his theory, two words flashed across his mind: ‘Oh s––t.’40 What would happen if we turned the broken windows theory around? If we can redesign prisons, could we do the same with police departments? I think we can. In Norway – where else – there’s already a long tradition of community policing, a strategy that assumes most folks are decent, law-abiding citizens.

His book Thinking About Crime (1975) became a big hit with top dogs in Washington, including President Gerald Ford, who in the year it was published called Wilson’s ideas ‘most interesting & helpful’.20 Leading officials rallied around his philosophy. The best remedy against crime, Professor Wilson patiently instructed, was to put away the criminals. How hard could it be? After reading a number of articles about James Q. Wilson’s influence on the justice system, it hit me. I’d heard this name before. Turns out that in 1982 Wilson came up with another revolutionary idea, which would enter the history books as the ‘broken windows’ theory. The first time I encountered this theory was in the same book where I’d also first read about Kitty Genovese’s murder (and the thirty-eight bystanders): journalist Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point. I remember being riveted by his chapter on Wilson. ‘If a window in a building is broken and is left unrepaired,’ Wilson wrote in a piece for The Atlantic in 1982, ‘all the rest of the windows will soon be broken.’21 Sooner or later, if nobody intervenes, the vandals will be followed by squatters.


pages: 361 words: 76,849

The Year Without Pants: Wordpress.com and the Future of Work by Scott Berkun

barriers to entry, blue-collar work, Broken windows theory, en.wikipedia.org, Firefox, future of work, Google Hangouts, Jane Jacobs, job satisfaction, Lean Startup, lone genius, Mark Zuckerberg, minimum viable product, post-work, remote working, Results Only Work Environment, Richard Stallman, Seaside, Florida, side project, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the map is not the territory, Tony Hsieh, trade route, zero-sum game

The bigger the issue was, the more likely it was that a more experienced person like Barry, Adams, Demitrious Kelly (another well-respected programmer), or even Mullenweg would get involved to decide how to handle it. Mostly it was up to programmers and their teams to decide how to triage issues that landed on their P2s. Some were fixed immediately, others were fixed soon, some were rejected, and others fell into the limbo of issues whose fate may never be decided. Source: Greg Brown, a code wrangler at Automattic. If you ask the old-timers, Automattic believed in the broken window theory, the idea popularized by Jane Jacobs in her book The Death and Life of Great American Cities.1 She examined why some neighborhoods in New York City were safer than others and concluded that neighborhoods that were well maintained by their inhabitants, including small things like picking up trash and fixing broken windows, tended to have less crime. In other words, by regularly fixing small things, you prevent bigger problems from starting.

It's similar to the platitudes “nip it in the bud” and “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Many open source projects espouse similar philosophies, but in practice it's a challenge since few enjoy picking up other people's trash. It was true that Adams and many other developers at Automattic would regularly watch for unowned issues to surface in IRC and jump in to debug or fix them. The broken windows theory has been challenged for not being the primary reason some neighborhoods were safer, but the premise—little things done well consistently can have big effects—has merit. While Automattic practiced the philosophy, how far it went is another story. No matter how many Good Samaritans you have, if the rate at which windows break is faster than people can fix them, the philosophy can't save you.

Team Social would eventually be one of the first to try switching, but not until months later. Each team developed its own process variations. Although they never used the P word (process), a word that smelled of big corporations, that's what it was. One team improved P2 itself to allow posts to be marked as unresolved, making filtering possible. Often programmers would cherry-pick bugs they felt were most important or easiest to do, and leave the others alone—a kind of modified broken window theory where people pick the windows they like most or are closest to their homes. Team Social, like other teams, designated the lead to be the last line of defense, responding to unanswered P2 posts. The broken LinkedIn connector itself wasn't important. Not many people used it—maybe 1 percent of all users. Raanan was one of the few at Automattic who did, and he reported the problem first because he saw it first.


pages: 281 words: 83,505

Palaces for the People: How Social Infrastructure Can Help Fight Inequality, Polarization, and the Decline of Civic Life by Eric Klinenberg

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, assortative mating, basic income, big-box store, Broken windows theory, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, clean water, deindustrialization, desegregation, Donald Trump, East Village, Filter Bubble, ghettoisation, helicopter parent, income inequality, informal economy, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, John Snow's cholera map, late fees, Mark Zuckerberg, mass incarceration, Menlo Park, New Urbanism, Peter Thiel, Ray Oldenburg, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, smart grid, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Great Good Place, the High Line, universal basic income, urban planning, young professional

“If you take care of the little things, then you can prevent a lot of the big things,” said the former Los Angeles and New York City police chief William J. Bratton, who used broken windows theory not only as a guide in both places but also in his global consulting work. In practice, this meant stopping, frisking, and arresting more people, particularly those who live in high-crime areas. It also meant a spike in reports that police were unfairly targeting minorities, particularly black men. Despite some relatively recent experimental evidence supporting elements of the theory, broken windows always worked better as an idea than as a work of empirical science. As the Columbia University law professor Bernard Harcourt writes, “the famous broken windows theory has never been verified,” and “the existing social-scientific data suggest that the theory is probably not right.”

He compares this tradition, unfavorably, with the work of British health scholars, most notably John Snow, whose research on cholera “noted the importance of the spatial environment in shaping human health and suggested the separation of sewers and drinking water wells to prevent water-borne diseases.” Reducing crime is more difficult than preventing cholera, but MacDonald, who’s done pioneering experimental research on how places influence crime rates, is one of many contemporary environmental criminologists with something new and significant to offer. Social scientists have long played a major role in shaping crime policies. Consider the “broken windows” theory, which the Harvard political scientist James Q. Wilson and the Rutgers criminologist George Kelling introduced in the Atlantic in 1982. According to Wilson and Kelling, criminals perceive broken windows and other forms of neighborhood disorder as signals of weak social control and, in turn, as evidence that crimes committed there are unlikely to be checked. “Though it is not inevitable,” they argue, “it is more likely that here, rather than in places where people are confident they can regulate public behavior by informal controls, drugs will change hands, prostitutes will solicit, and cars will be stripped.

The problems, which include the fact that perceptions of disorder generally have more to do with the racial composition of a neighborhood than with the amount of broken windows or graffiti, are numerous and well documented. A veritable A-list of renowned scholars, including the Harvard sociologist Robert Sampson, the University of Chicago sociologist Stephen Raudenbush, and the Berkeley criminologist Franklin Zimring, have identified flaws at all levels of the broken windows argument, and with the policies it inspired. For present purposes, though, I’m less interested in the validity of the broken windows theory than in the way it was framed and interpreted. The authors, Wilson and Kelling, encouraged policy makers to crack down on the petty crimes that lead to things like broken windows, which meant more aggressive street-level policing. Had they been more interested in the influence of social infrastructure, however, they might have taken another tack. Consider the famous scenario in which the authors propose how spirals of disorder and decay get started.


pages: 318 words: 82,452

The End of Policing by Alex S. Vitale

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, anti-communist, Broken windows theory, citizen journalism, Columbine, deindustrialization, desegregation, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, equal pay for equal work, Ferguson, Missouri, ghettoisation, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, mandatory minimum, mass immigration, mass incarceration, moral panic, Occupy movement, open borders, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, strikebreaker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, white flight

Wilson co-authored the book Crime and Human Nature with Richard Herrnstein, which argued that there were important biological determinants of criminality.16 While race was not one of the core determinants, language about IQ and body type opened the door to a kind of sociobiology that led Herrnstein to coauthor the openly racist The Bell Curve with Charles Murray, who was also a close associate of Wilson.17 What was needed to stem this tide of declining civility, they argued, was to empower the police to not just fight crime but to become agents of moral authority on the streets. The new role for the police was to intervene in the quotidian disorders of urban life that contributed to the sense that “anything goes.” The broken-windows theory magically reverses the well-understood causal relationship between crime and poverty, arguing that poverty and social disorganization are the result, not the cause, of crime and that the disorderly behavior of the growing “underclass” threatens to destroy the very fabric of cities. Broken-windows policing is at root a deeply conservative attempt to shift the burden of responsibility for declining living conditions onto the poor themselves and to argue that the solution to all social ills is increasingly aggressive, invasive, and restrictive forms of policing that involve more arrests, more harassment, and ultimately more violence.

Christian Parenti has shown how the federal government crashed the economy in the 1970s to stem the rise of workers’ power, leaving millions out of work and creating a new, mostly African American permanent underclass largely excluded from the formal economy.39 In response, government mobilized at all levels to manage this new “surplus population” through intensive policing and mass incarceration. The policing of poor and nonwhite communities became much more intense. As unemployment, poverty, and homelessness increased, government, police, and prosecutors worked together to criminalize huge swaths of the population aided by ideologies like the broken-windows theory and the superpredator myth. We cannot reduce all policing to the active suppression of social movements and the control of racial minorities. Today’s police are clearly concerned with matters of public safety and crime control, however misguided their methods are. The advent of Compstat and other management techniques are in fact designed to address serious crime problems, and significant resources go into these efforts.

While the origins of “school resource officers” (SROs) can be traced back to the 1950s, there was a dramatic change in their number and focus in the 1990s, thanks in large part to the Justice Department’s “Cops in Schools” program, which gave out $750 million to hire 6,500 new school-based police.3 While many of these officers work hard to maintain a safe environment for students and to act as mentors and advisors, the overall approach of relying on armed police to deal with safety issues has led to a massive increase in arrests of students that fundamentally undermines the educational mission of schools, turning them into an extension of the larger carceral state and feeding what has come to be called the school-to-prison pipeline. This increase in the number of school-based police is tied to a variety of social and political factors that converged in the 1990s and continues today. First, conservative criminologist John Dilulio, along with broken-windows theory author James Q. Wilson, argued in 1995 that the United States would soon experience a wave of youth crime driven by the crack trade, high rates of single-parent families, and a series of racially coded concerns about declining values and public morality.4 He predicted that by 2010 there would be an additional 270,000 of these youthful predators on the streets, leading to a massive increase in violent crime.


pages: 258 words: 73,109

The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone, Especially Ourselves by Dan Ariely

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Albert Einstein, Bernie Madoff, Broken windows theory, cashless society, clean water, cognitive dissonance, Credit Default Swap, Donald Trump, fudge factor, new economy, Richard Feynman, Schrödinger's Cat, Shai Danziger, shareholder value, Steve Jobs, Walter Mischel

This is the real cost of even minor instances of cheating and the reason we need to be more vigilant in our efforts to curb even small infractions. So what can we do about it? One hint may lie in the Broken Windows Theory, which was the basis of a 1982 Atlantic article by George Kelling and James Wilson. Kelling and Wilson proposed a critical component of keeping order in dangerous neighborhoods, and it wasn’t just putting more police on the beat. They argued that if people in a run-down area of town see a building with a few broken, long-unrepaired windows, they will be tempted to break even more windows and create further damage to the building and its surroundings, creating a blight effect. Based on the Broken Windows Theory, they suggested a simple strategy for preventing vandalism: fix problems when they are small. If you repair each broken window (or other misbehaviors) immediately, other potential offenders are going to be much less likely to misbehave.

If you repair each broken window (or other misbehaviors) immediately, other potential offenders are going to be much less likely to misbehave. Although the Broken Windows Theory has been difficult to prove or refute, its logic is compelling. It suggests that we should not excuse, overlook, or forgive small crimes, because doing so can make matters worse. This is especially important for those in the spotlight: politicians, public servants, celebrities, and CEOs. It might seem unfair to hold them to higher standards, but if we take seriously the idea that publicly observed behavior has a broader impact on those viewing the behavior, this means that their misbehavior can have greater downstream consequences for society at large. In contrast to this view, it seems that celebrities are too often rewarded with lighter punishments for their crimes than the rest of the population, which might suggest to the public that these crimes and misdemeanors are not all that bad.

Similarly, understanding how conflicts of interest work and how deeply they influence us makes it clear that we need to avoid and regulate conflicts of interest to a much higher degree. We also need to understand the effects that the environment, as well as mental and physical depletion, plays in dishonesty. And of course, once we understand the social infectiousness of dishonesty, we could take a cue from the Broken Windows Theory to combat the social contagion of cheating. INTERESTINGLY, WE ALREADY have many social mechanisms in place that seem to be designed specifically for resetting our moral compass and overcoming the “what-the-hell” effect. Such resetting rituals—ranging from the Catholic confession to Yom Kippur, and Ramadan to the weekly Sabbath—all present us with opportunities to collect ourselves, stop the deterioration, and turn a new page.


pages: 509 words: 92,141

The Pragmatic Programmer by Andrew Hunt, Dave Thomas

A Pattern Language, Broken windows theory, business process, buy low sell high, c2.com, combinatorial explosion, continuous integration, database schema, domain-specific language, don't repeat yourself, Donald Knuth, general-purpose programming language, George Santayana, Grace Hopper, if you see hoof prints, think horses—not zebras, index card, lateral thinking, loose coupling, Menlo Park, MVC pattern, premature optimization, Ralph Waldo Emerson, revision control, Schrödinger's Cat, slashdot, sorting algorithm, speech recognition, traveling salesman, urban decay, Y2K

One broken window, left unrepaired for any substantial length of time, instills in the inhabitants of the building a sense of abandonment—a sense that the powers that be don't care about the building. So another window gets broken. People start littering. Graffiti appears. Serious structural damage begins. In a relatively short space of time, the building becomes damaged beyond the owner's desire to fix it, and the sense of abandonment becomes reality. The "Broken Window Theory" has inspired police departments in New York and other major cities to crack down on the small stuff in order to keep out the big stuff. It works: keeping on top of broken windows, graffiti, and other small infractions has reduced the serious crime level. Tip 4 Don't Live with Broken Windows Don't leave "broken windows" (bad designs, wrong decisions, or poor code) unrepaired.

One broken window—a badly designed piece of code, a poor management decision that the team must live with for the duration of the project—is all it takes to start the decline. If you find yourself working on a project with quite a few broken windows, it's all too easy to slip into the mindset of "All the rest of this code is crap, I'll just follow suit." It doesn't matter if the project has been fine up to this point. In the original experiment leading to the "Broken Window Theory," an abandoned car sat for a week untouched. But once a single window was broken, the car was stripped and turned upside down within hours. By the same token, if you find yourself on a team and a project where the code is pristinely beautiful—cleanly written, well designed, and elegant—you will likely take extra special care not to mess it up, just like the firefighters. Even if there's a fire raging (deadline, release date, trade show demo, etc.), you don't want to be the first one to make a mess.

Tip 6 Remember the Big Picture We've never tried this—honest. But they say that if you take a frog and drop it into boiling water, it will jump straight back out again. However, if you place the frog in a pan of cold water, then gradually heat it, the frog won't notice the slow increase in temperature and will stay put until cooked. Note that the frog's problem is different from the broken windows issue discussed in Section 2. In the Broken Window Theory, people lose the will to fight entropy because they perceive that no one else cares. The frog just doesn't notice the change. Don't be like the frog. Keep an eye on the big picture. Constantly review what's happening around you, not just what you personally are doing. Related sections include: Software Entropy, page 4 Programming by Coincidence, page 172 Refactoring, page 184 The Requirements Pit, page 202 Pragmatic Teams, page 224 Challenges While reviewing a draft of this book, John Lakos raised the following issue: The soldiers progressively deceive the villagers, but the change they catalyze does them all good.


pages: 313 words: 92,053

Places of the Heart: The Psychogeography of Everyday Life by Colin Ellard

augmented reality, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Broken windows theory, Buckminster Fuller, carbon footprint, commoditize, crowdsourcing, Frank Gehry, Google Glasses, Guggenheim Bilbao, haute couture, Howard Rheingold, Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, mandelbrot fractal, Marshall McLuhan, Masdar, mass immigration, megastructure, more computing power than Apollo, Oculus Rift, Peter Eisenman, RFID, Richard Florida, risk tolerance, sentiment analysis, smart cities, starchitect, the built environment, theory of mind, urban decay, urban planning, urban sprawl, Victor Gruen

A major crackdown on both physical and social disorder followed, including controversial enforcement measures that allowed police to stop, question, and frisk any suspicious individuals appearing on the streets. In New York and a few other places in the United States and beyond, a measurable drop in serious crime followed these initiatives; so the application of broken windows theory to the problem of urban crime was lauded as a success.12 Research and debate about the broken windows theory continues unabated and with some heat. Critics argue that the decreases in crime rate in New York observed during Mayor Giuliani’s reign also coincided with a general increase in the standard of living of residents of the city and notably a precipitous drop in the unemployment rate. Economic factors such as these would also very likely exert downward pressure on many different kinds of crime.

Not long afterward, he began to see the same acts of theft and vandalism toward the car at the second site as he had seen in the Bronx. Political scientist James Wilson and criminologist George Kelling used this simple observation, publicized not long after the experiment in an article in Time magazine, as the cornerstone of a major new theory describing the origins of urban crime. The key argument of Wilson and Kelling’s so-called broken windows theory was that physical signs of disorder—broken or boarded up windows, litter, or graffiti—served as overt signals that nobody cared about the surrounding environment and this evident lack of caring encouraged crime. If Wilson and Kelling were right then a key corollary would be that any efforts taken to minimize signs of physical disorder would also discourage crime. The theory, with its straightforward prescription for crime reduction was taken up with gusto by city officials—first by William Bratton, the head of security for public transit systems in New York City, who made great efforts to sanitize its subway system, and later by New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who with help from Bratton—by now New York’s police commissioner—extended the definition of disorder to include social disorder, the perpetration of petty crimes such as public drunkenness and urination, fare-dodging and panhandling.

parsons-ellard 7The technical article describing the relationship between neuropeptide S and urban stress was written by Fabian Streit and a large group of collaborators titled “A Functional Variant in the Neuropeptide S Receptor 1 Gene Moderates the Influence of Urban Upbringing on Stress Processing in the Amygdala,” and was published in the journal Stress (2014, Volume 17, pages 352–361). 8Oshin Vartanian describes our preferences for curves and some of its implications for architecture in an article titled “Impact of Contour on Aesthetic Judgments and Approach-Avoidance Decisions in Architecture,” in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2011, Volume 110, Supplement 2, pags 10446–10453) Available at: http://www.pnas.org/content/110/Supplement_2/10446.abstract 9The experiments describing the effect of geometric shapes on social judgment by Ursula Hess, Orna Gryc, and Shlomo Hareli appear in a paper titled “How Shapes Influence Social Judgments,” in the journal Social Cognition (2013 Volume 31, pages 72–80). 10The film The Pruitt-Igoe Myth, produced and directed in 2011 by Chad Friedrichs, provides an interesting interpretation of the failure of the development based more on prejudice and economics than on architecture. 11The dropped letter method was invented by Stanley Milgram (of the infamous Milgram Experiment) and first reported in an article titled “The Lost-Letter Technique: A Tool of Social Research,” in the journal Public Opinion Quarterly (1965, Volume 29, pages 437–438). 12The article, titled “Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety,” that “broke” the news of broken window theory was published in The Atlantic Monthly (March, 1982 by James Wilson and George Kelling. In part, their theory was based on earlier work by Philip Zimbardo in an article titled “The Human Choice: Individuation, Reason, and Order Versus Deindividuation, Impulse, and Chaos,” in the Nebraska Symposium on Motivation (1969, Volume 17, pages 237–307). 13A report on the Eurobarometer analysis of the fear of crime, produced by the European Commission, titled “Analysis of Public Attitudes to Insecurity, Fear of Crime and Crime Prevention,” can be found at: http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_181_sum_en.pdf 14A digest of results from a 2010 Gallup poll assessing fear of crime in the United States, titled “Nearly 4 in 10 Americans Still Fear Walking Alone at Night,” can be found at: http://www.gallup.com/poll/144272/nearly-americans-fear-walking-alone-night.aspx 15This Robert Ornstein quote comes from his 1992 book The Evolution of Consciousness: The Origins of the Way We Think (Simon and Schuster, New York, page 262). 16The official Viennese government description of gender mainstreaming may be found here: https://www.wien.gv.at/english/administration/gendermainstreaming/ A good discussion by Clare Foran of the Viennese policies titled “How to Design a City for Women,” can be found in the Atlantic City Lab blog at: http://www.citylab.com/commute/2013/09/how-design-city-women/6739/ 17The proportion of unmarried adults in U.S. rose to more than 50 percent according to a widely reported survey conducted by the U.S.


pages: 339 words: 95,988

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything by Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner

airport security, Broken windows theory, crack epidemic, desegregation, Exxon Valdez, feminist movement, George Akerlof, information asymmetry, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, longitudinal study, mental accounting, moral hazard, More Guns, Less Crime, oil shale / tar sands, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, pets.com, profit maximization, Richard Thaler, school choice, sensible shoes, Steven Pinker, Ted Kaczynski, The Chicago School, The Market for Lemons, Thorstein Veblen, twin studies, War on Poverty

He ushered the NYPD into what one senior police official later called “our Athenian period,” in which new ideas were given weight over calcified practices. Instead of coddling his precinct commanders, Bratton demanded accountability. Instead of relying solely on old-fashioned cop know-how, he introduced technological solutions like CompStat, a computerized method of addressing crime hot spots. The most compelling new idea that Bratton brought to life stemmed from the broken window theory, which was conceived by the criminologists James Q. Wilson and George Kelling. The broken window theory argues that minor nuisances, if left unchecked, turn into major nuisances: that is, if someone breaks a window and sees it isn’t fixed immediately, he gets the signal that it’s all right to break the rest of the windows and maybe set the building afire too. So with murder raging all around, Bill Bratton’s cops began to police the sort of deeds that used to go unpoliced: jumping a subway turnstile, panhandling too aggressively, urinating in the streets, swabbing a filthy squeegee across a car’s windshield unless the driver made an appropriate “donation.”

Levitt, “The Response of Crime Reporting Behavior to Changes in the Size of the Police Force: Implications for Studies of Police Effectiveness Using Reported Crime Data,” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 14 (February 1998), pp. 62–81. / 114–15 The 1960s as a great time to be a criminal: See Gary S. Becker and Guity Nashat Becker, The Economics of Life (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1997), pp. 142–43. NEW YORK CITY’S CRIME “MIRACLE”: The “Athenian period” quote came from an author interview with former police captain William J. Gorta, one of CompStat’s inventors. / 116 The broken window theory: See James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, “Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety,” Atlantic Monthly, March 1982. / 118 Bratton hiring more police in Los Angeles: See Terry McCarthy, “The Gang Buster,” Time, January 19, 2004. GUN LAWS: Concerning the fact that the United States has more guns than it has adults, see Philip Cook and Jens Ludwig, Guns in America: Results of a Comprehensive Survey of Gun Ownership and Use (Washington, D.C.: Police Foundation, 1996). / 119 The gun-crime link: See Mark Duggan, “More Guns, More Crime,” Journal of Political Economy 109, no. 5 (2001), pp. 1086–1114. / 119 Guns in Switzerland: See Stephen P.

see also House of Representatives, U.S.; Senate, U.S. Conley, Dalton contraception conventional wisdom of experts and journalists inaccuracy of questioning of shifts in sloppy formation of Cook County, Ill. corporate scandals Corzine, Jon Cosby, Bill Cosby Show, The Council on Bioethics crack cocaine changes in market for nicknames for crib death crime abortion and African Americans and broken window theory and corporate deterrence of drug-related incentives for information minor predictions of property rising rates of street teenage underreporting of victims of violent white-collar see also drug dealers; specific crimes crime reduction aging population and capital punishment and drug market changes and gun control and imprisonment and legalized abortion and police and strong economy and theories of tougher laws and criminal mobs criminologists Crooked Timber Daily Racing Form Daily Show with Jon Stewart, The Danielovitch, Issur data: chains of on early childhood education game show online dating patterns in recording of selection of sports testing see also information dating, online day-care centers fines for late pickups at death: accidental of children drowning risks vs. fear of see also capital punishment; homicide Death Benefit Association “Death’s Waiting List” Declaration of Independence deflation Dershowitz, Alan Detroit diets DiIulio, John J., Jr.


pages: 289

Hustle and Gig: Struggling and Surviving in the Sharing Economy by Alexandrea J. Ravenelle

"side hustle", active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, barriers to entry, basic income, Broken windows theory, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cashless society, Clayton Christensen, clean water, collaborative consumption, collective bargaining, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, disruptive innovation, Downton Abbey, East Village, Erik Brynjolfsson, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Howard Zinn, income inequality, informal economy, job automation, low skilled workers, Lyft, minimum wage unemployment, Mitch Kapor, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, obamacare, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, passive income, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, performance metric, precariat, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, strikebreaker, TaskRabbit, telemarketer, the payments system, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs, Travis Kalanick, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, ubercab, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, very high income, white flight, working poor, Zipcar

It’s like life can be somewhat dull.” An attorney with a law firm in New York City, making well over two hundred thousand dollars a year, can afford to treat his gig economy work as a game. He’s not dependent on it. But his “playing Mafia” and treating lawbreaking as an antidote to boredom points to a casualization of criminality within the sharing economy. In 1982, George L. Kelling and James Q. Wilson wrote about the broken-windows theory in The Atlantic. To illustrate their point that disorder begets disorder, they used Philip Zimbardo’s 1969 experiments with a car left in the Bronx bearing signs of deviance (hood up, no license plates) and a comparable vehicle left in Palo Alto, California, although without any signs of deviance.18 Within minutes of being “abandoned,” the vehicle in the Bronx was vandalized by a family that stole the radiator and battery.

The remaining items of value were stolen within a day, and then “destruction began—windows smashed, parts torn off, upholstery ripped. . . . Most of the adult ‘vandals’ were well-dressed, apparently clean-cut whites.”19 The vehicle in Palo Alto was fine for more than a week, until Zimbardo took a sledgehammer to a portion of the exterior. “Within a few hours the car had been turned upside down and utterly destroyed. Again, the ‘vandals’ appeared to be primarily respectable whites.”20 Broken-windows theory suggests that any sign of disorder or deviance—such as a single broken window—will lead to more disorder. “Untended property becomes fair game for people out for fun or plunder and even for people who ordinarily would not dream of doing such things and who probably consider themselves law-abiding. . . . But vandalism can occur anywhere once communal barriers—the sense of mutual regard and the obligations of civility—are lowered by actions that seem to signal that ‘no one cares.’ . . .

Airbnb has likewise established itself by breaking laws against illegal hotels and making it easier for people to enter a highly regulated, and taxed, industry without following the same rules or paying the same taxes as established companies. When a company flouts the rules and earns multibillion-dollar valuations as a result, the message sent to workers and customers is hardly one of moral rectitude. If broken-windows theory suggests that small-scale disorder can lead to wide-scale deviance, then perhaps this is best described as the theory of “dead fish rotting”: large-scale illegal efforts, carried out in full public view—such as starting an illegal hotel business by calling it an “accommodations marketplace” or opening an unregulated taxi company by calling it a “technology company”—lead to small-scale deviance by individuals.


Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, anti-pattern, Anton Chekhov, autonomous vehicles, bank run, barriers to entry, Bayesian statistics, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, business process, butterfly effect, Cal Newport, Clayton Christensen, cognitive dissonance, commoditize, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Attenborough, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, discounted cash flows, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, effective altruism, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, fear of failure, feminist movement, Filter Bubble, framing effect, friendly fire, fundamental attribution error, Gödel, Escher, Bach, hindsight bias, housing crisis, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, illegal immigration, income inequality, information asymmetry, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John Nash: game theory, lateral thinking, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, Lyft, mail merge, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Metcalfe’s law, Milgram experiment, minimum viable product, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Network effects, nuclear winter, offshore financial centre, p-value, Parkinson's law, Paul Graham, peak oil, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, placebo effect, Potemkin village, prediction markets, premature optimization, price anchoring, principal–agent problem, publication bias, recommendation engine, remote working, replication crisis, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Schrödinger's Cat, selection bias, Shai Danziger, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, survivorship bias, The Present Situation in Quantum Mechanics, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, uber lyft, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, urban planning, Vilfredo Pareto, wikimedia commons

Here is an example of a common slippery slope argument: “If we allow any gun control, then it will eventually result in the government taking all guns away.” This line of reasoning is usually fallacious because there often isn’t 100 percent inevitability in each piece of the logical chain. The second model is broken windows theory, which proposes that visible evidence of small crimes, for example broken windows in a neighborhood, creates an environment that encourages worse crimes, such as murder. The thinking goes that broken windows are a sign that lawlessness is tolerated, and so there is a perceived need to hold the line and prevent a descent into a more chaotic state (see herd immunity in Chapter 2). While interventions associated with broken windows theory are intuitively appealing, it is unclear how effective they are at actually reducing widespread criminal activity relative to alternatives. Related theories often take the form of a contagion metaphor, where something the person doesn’t like (e.g., rap music, homosexuality, socialism) is compared to a disease that will spread through society, continually becoming more virulent if left unchecked.

A&P, 70 absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence, 167 A/B testing, 136 Accidental Empires (Cringley), 253 accountability, 275 acne, 169–71 activation energy, 112–13 actor-observer bias (self-serving bias), 21, 272 Adams, John, 222 adaptability, 121, 129 ad hominem, 226 adverse selection, 46–47 advertising, 103–4, 120, 262 advisers, 44, 45, 296 Affordable Care Act (ACA), 46, 47 Afghanistan, 54, 243 agent, 44–45 aggregation, 205 aggression, obnoxious, 264 agreeableness, 250 AIDS, 233 Airbnb, 276, 288, 292 air pollution, 41 air travel, 53–54 Aldi, 70 Alexander, Christopher, 92 algorithms, 94, 97 Allen, David, 76 all-nighter, 83 alpha, 161, 182 al-Qaeda, 52, 54 alternative hypothesis, 163, 164, 166, 167 altruism, effective, 80 alumni, 119 Amazon, 61, 70, 95–96, 283, 290, 300 American Revolution, 221–22, 239, 240 American Statistical Association, 168 Amway, 217 analysis paralysis, 60–62, 93 anchoring, 14–15, 30, 199 anecdotal evidence, 133, 139, 146 antibiotics, 37, 47–49 Antifragile (Taleb), 2, 105 antifragility, 2–3, 31–33 anti-patterns, 93 AOL, 106 Apollo 13, 4 appeasement, 237 Apple, 103, 104, 231, 241, 258, 289–91, 305, 309 iPad, 290 iPod, 296–97 Newton, 290 approval ratings, 152–54, 158 arbitrage, 282–83 Archilochus, 254 Archimedes, 78 arguing from first principles, 4–7, 31, 207 Ariely, Dan, 14, 222–23 arithmetic, ix–x, 23–24, 30, 178 arms races, 209–12, 214 Ashley Madison, 229 Associated Press (AP), 306 asymmetric information, 45–47 atomic bomb, see nuclear weapons Atwood, Jeff, 253 authority, 219–20, 226 automation, 95, 310 availability bias, 15–18, 30, 33, 300 average, 146, 187 Avon, 217 Aztecs, 243–44 babies, 198, 279 sleep and, 131–32 babysitters, 222 backfire effect, 26 back-of-the-envelope calculation, 299 bacteria, 47–49, 295 bait and switch, 228, 229 bandwagon effect, 202 barriers to entry and barriers to exit, 305 baseball, 83, 145–46, 289 base rate, 157, 159, 160 base rate fallacy, 157, 158, 170 BATNA (best alternative to a negotiated agreement), 77 Battle of Heraclea, 239 Battle of Tsushima, 241 Bayes’ theorem and Bayesian statistics, 157–60 beachhead, 300–301 Beatles, 105 Beautiful Mind, A, 213 beliefs, 103, 107 bell curve (normal distribution), 150–52, 153, 163–66, 191 Bell Labs, 89 benefit of the doubt, 20 benefits: cost-benefit analysis, 177–86, 189, 194 eliminating, 224 net, 181–82, 184 Berlin, Isaiah, 254 Bernoulli distribution, 152 best practices, 92 beta, 162, 182 Better Angels of Our Nature, The (Pinker), 144 Bezos, Jeff, 61–62, 286–87 bias, 3, 139 availability, 15–18, 30, 33, 300 confirmation, 26–28, 33, 103, 159 disconfirmation, 27 groupthink, 201–3 hidden, 139–43 hindsight, 271–72 nonresponse, 140, 142, 143 observer-expectancy, 136, 139 optimistic probability, 33 present, 85, 87, 93, 113 publication, 170, 173 response, 142, 143 selection, 139–40, 143, 170 self-serving, 21, 272 survivorship, 140–43, 170, 272 Big Short, The (Lewis), 289 bike-shedding, 75, 93 Bird, Larry, 246 birth lottery, 21–22, 69 black-and-white thinking, 126–28, 168, 272 black boxes, 94–95 Black Flags rebellion, 276 blackouts, electric, 120 black swan events, 190–91, 193 Blank, Steve, 294 bleeding them dry, 239 blinded experiments, 136 Blockbuster, 106 blowback, 54 Boaty McBoatface, RSS, 35 body mass index (BMI), 137 body temperature, 146–50 boiling frog, 55, 56, 58, 60 bonds, 180, 184 Bonne, Rose, 58 Boot, Max, 239 boots on the ground, 279 Boston Common, 36–38, 42 Boyd, John, 294 Bradley, Bill, 248 brainstorming, 201–3 Brandeis, Louis, 307 breast cancer, 156–57, 160–61 Breathalyzer tests, 157–58, 160 Brexit, 206, 305 bright spots, 300 bring in reinforcements, 279 British Medical Journal (BMJ), 136–37 broken windows theory, 235–36 Broderick, Matthew, 230 Brody, William, 290–91 Brookings Institution, 306 brute force solution, 93, 97 Bryson, Bill, 50 budget, 38, 74–75, 81, 95, 113 national, 75–76 Buffett, Warren, viii, 69, 286, 302, 317, 318 burning bridges, 243 burnout, 82, 83 Burns, Robert, 49 burn the boats, 244 Bush, George H. W., 104 business case, 207 butterfly effect, 121, 122, 125, 201 Butterfly Effect, The, 121 Butterworth, Brian, x buyout, leveraged, 79 bystander effect, 259 cable television, 69, 100, 106 Caesar, Julius, 244 calculus, 291 call your bluff, 238 cameras, 302–3, 308–10 campaign finance reform, 110 Campbell, Donald T., 49–50 Campbell’s law, 49–50 cancer: breast, 156–57, 160–61 clusters of, 145 lung, 133–34, 137 cap-and-trade systems, 42–43 capital, cost of, 76, 77, 179, 182 careers, 300–301 decisions about, 5–6, 57, 175–77, 201, 207, 296 design patterns and, 93 entry barriers and, 305 licensing and, 306–7 Carfax, 46 Cargill, Tom, 89 cargo cults, 315–16 caring personally, 263–64 car market, 46–47 Carrey, Jim, 229 carrot-and-stick model, 232 cascading failures, 120, 192 casinos, 220, 226 cast a wide net, 122 catalyst, 112–13, 115, 119 Catherine II, Empress, 228 causal loop diagrams, 192–93 causation, correlation and, 134, 135 cellphones, 116–17 center of gravity, 112 central limit theorem, 152–53, 163 central tendency, 147 chain reaction, viii, 114, 120 Challenger, 31–33 challenging directly, 263–64 change, 100–101, 112–13, 129 resistance to, 110–11 chaos, 124 balance between order and, 128 chaos theory, 121 chaotic systems, 120–21, 124, 125 Chatelier’s principle, 193–94 cheating, 50 Chekhov, Anton, 124 chess, 242 chilling effect, 52–54 China, 231, 276 choice, 62 paradox of, 62–63 Christensen, Clayton, 296, 297, 310 Cialdini, Robert, 215–17, 219–21 circle of competence, 317–18 climate change, 42, 55, 56, 104, 105, 183, 192 Clinton, Hillary, 70, 97 clustering illusion, 144–45 CNN, 220 Coase, Ronald, 42 Coase theorem, 42–43 cobra effect, 50–52 Coca-Cola, 305 cognitive dissonance, 27–29, 216 coin flips, 143–44, 154–55, 158–59 Cold War, 209, 235 collateral damage, 53–54, 231 collective intelligence, 205 collectivist versus individualist, in organizational culture, 274 college, 209–10 choice of, 58–60 rankings of, 50, 137 Collins, Jim, 109, 254 commandos, in organizations and projects, 253–54 commitment, 87–88 escalation of, 91 influence model of, 216, 220 commodities, 283 commons, 36–38, 43 Common Sense (Paine), 221–22 communication, high-context and low-context, 273–74 competence, circle of, 317–18 competition: and crossing the chasm, 312 moats and, 302–5 perfect, 283 regulatory capture and, 305 sustainable competitive advantage, 283, 285 complexity, complex systems, 185–86, 192, 194 diagrams and, 192–93 simulations and, 192–94 compound interest, 69, 85 Concorde fallacy, 91 conditional probability, 156 Confederate leaders, 113 confidence intervals, 154–56, 159 confidence level, 154, 155, 161 confirmation bias, 26–28, 33, 103, 159 conflict, 209, 226 arms races, 209–12, 214 game theory and, see game theory confounding factor, 134–35, 139 conjunction fallacy, 9–10 conscientiousness, 250 consensus, 202 consensus-contrarian matrix, 285–86, 290 consequence-conviction matrix, 265–66 consequences, 35 unintended, 35–36, 53–55, 57, 64–65, 192, 232 containment, 233, 237 contests, 35–36 context-switching, 71, 74 continental drift, 24–25, 289 contrarian-consensus matrix, 285–86, 290 Contrarian’s Guide to Leadership, The (Sample), 28 control group, 136 conventional wisdom, 5 convergent thinking, 203 conviction-consequence matrix, 265–66 cooperation, 215, 226 tit-for-tat, 214–15 correlations, 134, 135, 139 corruption, 307 Cortés, Hernán, 243–44 cost-benefit analysis, 177–86, 189, 194 Costco, 70 cost of capital, 76, 77, 179, 182 cost of doing business, 232 counterfactual thinking, 201, 272, 309–10 cramming, 83, 262 credible intervals, 159 crime, 16, 161, 231, 232 broken windows theory and, 235–36 Cringley, Robert X., 253 critical mass, viii–x, 114–15, 117, 119, 120, 129, 194, 308 critical thinking, 201 crossing the chasm, 311–12 crossing the Rubicon, 244 crowdsourcing, 203–6, 286 culture, 113, 273 organizational, 107–8, 113, 273–80, 293 customers, 300 development of, 294 personas for, 300 types of, 298–300 winner-take-most markets and, 308 Cutco, 217 Danziger, Shai, 63 dark patterns, 226–29 Potemkin villages, 228–29 Darley, John, 259 Darwin, Charles, 100, 101, 291 data, 130–31, 143, 146, 301 binary, 152 dredging of, 169–70 in graphs, see graphs mean in, 146, 149, 151 meta-analysis of, 172–73 outliers in, 148 streaks and clusters in, 144 variance in, 149 see also experiments; statistics dating, 8–10, 95 daycare center, 222–23 deadlines, 89 death, causes of, 17 death by a thousand cuts, 38 debate, 225 decisions, 1–2, 11, 31, 127, 129, 131–33, 175, 209 business case and, 207 choices and, 62–63 cost-benefit analysis in, 177–86, 189, 194 decision fatigue and, 63–64 decision tree in, 186–90, 194, 215 Eisenhower Decision Matrix, 72–74, 89, 124, 125 irreversible, 61–62, 223–24 opportunity cost and, 76–77, 80, 83, 179, 182, 188, 305 past, analyzing, 201, 271–72 pro-con list in, 175–78, 185, 189 reversible, 61–62 sequences of, 144 small, tyranny of, 38, 55 utilitarianism and, 189–90 Declaration of Independence, 222 deep work, 72, 76, 88, 278 default effect, 87–88 Defense, U.S.

., 49–50 Campbell’s law, 49–50 cancer: breast, 156–57, 160–61 clusters of, 145 lung, 133–34, 137 cap-and-trade systems, 42–43 capital, cost of, 76, 77, 179, 182 careers, 300–301 decisions about, 5–6, 57, 175–77, 201, 207, 296 design patterns and, 93 entry barriers and, 305 licensing and, 306–7 Carfax, 46 Cargill, Tom, 89 cargo cults, 315–16 caring personally, 263–64 car market, 46–47 Carrey, Jim, 229 carrot-and-stick model, 232 cascading failures, 120, 192 casinos, 220, 226 cast a wide net, 122 catalyst, 112–13, 115, 119 Catherine II, Empress, 228 causal loop diagrams, 192–93 causation, correlation and, 134, 135 cellphones, 116–17 center of gravity, 112 central limit theorem, 152–53, 163 central tendency, 147 chain reaction, viii, 114, 120 Challenger, 31–33 challenging directly, 263–64 change, 100–101, 112–13, 129 resistance to, 110–11 chaos, 124 balance between order and, 128 chaos theory, 121 chaotic systems, 120–21, 124, 125 Chatelier’s principle, 193–94 cheating, 50 Chekhov, Anton, 124 chess, 242 chilling effect, 52–54 China, 231, 276 choice, 62 paradox of, 62–63 Christensen, Clayton, 296, 297, 310 Cialdini, Robert, 215–17, 219–21 circle of competence, 317–18 climate change, 42, 55, 56, 104, 105, 183, 192 Clinton, Hillary, 70, 97 clustering illusion, 144–45 CNN, 220 Coase, Ronald, 42 Coase theorem, 42–43 cobra effect, 50–52 Coca-Cola, 305 cognitive dissonance, 27–29, 216 coin flips, 143–44, 154–55, 158–59 Cold War, 209, 235 collateral damage, 53–54, 231 collective intelligence, 205 collectivist versus individualist, in organizational culture, 274 college, 209–10 choice of, 58–60 rankings of, 50, 137 Collins, Jim, 109, 254 commandos, in organizations and projects, 253–54 commitment, 87–88 escalation of, 91 influence model of, 216, 220 commodities, 283 commons, 36–38, 43 Common Sense (Paine), 221–22 communication, high-context and low-context, 273–74 competence, circle of, 317–18 competition: and crossing the chasm, 312 moats and, 302–5 perfect, 283 regulatory capture and, 305 sustainable competitive advantage, 283, 285 complexity, complex systems, 185–86, 192, 194 diagrams and, 192–93 simulations and, 192–94 compound interest, 69, 85 Concorde fallacy, 91 conditional probability, 156 Confederate leaders, 113 confidence intervals, 154–56, 159 confidence level, 154, 155, 161 confirmation bias, 26–28, 33, 103, 159 conflict, 209, 226 arms races, 209–12, 214 game theory and, see game theory confounding factor, 134–35, 139 conjunction fallacy, 9–10 conscientiousness, 250 consensus, 202 consensus-contrarian matrix, 285–86, 290 consequence-conviction matrix, 265–66 consequences, 35 unintended, 35–36, 53–55, 57, 64–65, 192, 232 containment, 233, 237 contests, 35–36 context-switching, 71, 74 continental drift, 24–25, 289 contrarian-consensus matrix, 285–86, 290 Contrarian’s Guide to Leadership, The (Sample), 28 control group, 136 conventional wisdom, 5 convergent thinking, 203 conviction-consequence matrix, 265–66 cooperation, 215, 226 tit-for-tat, 214–15 correlations, 134, 135, 139 corruption, 307 Cortés, Hernán, 243–44 cost-benefit analysis, 177–86, 189, 194 Costco, 70 cost of capital, 76, 77, 179, 182 cost of doing business, 232 counterfactual thinking, 201, 272, 309–10 cramming, 83, 262 credible intervals, 159 crime, 16, 161, 231, 232 broken windows theory and, 235–36 Cringley, Robert X., 253 critical mass, viii–x, 114–15, 117, 119, 120, 129, 194, 308 critical thinking, 201 crossing the chasm, 311–12 crossing the Rubicon, 244 crowdsourcing, 203–6, 286 culture, 113, 273 organizational, 107–8, 113, 273–80, 293 customers, 300 development of, 294 personas for, 300 types of, 298–300 winner-take-most markets and, 308 Cutco, 217 Danziger, Shai, 63 dark patterns, 226–29 Potemkin villages, 228–29 Darley, John, 259 Darwin, Charles, 100, 101, 291 data, 130–31, 143, 146, 301 binary, 152 dredging of, 169–70 in graphs, see graphs mean in, 146, 149, 151 meta-analysis of, 172–73 outliers in, 148 streaks and clusters in, 144 variance in, 149 see also experiments; statistics dating, 8–10, 95 daycare center, 222–23 deadlines, 89 death, causes of, 17 death by a thousand cuts, 38 debate, 225 decisions, 1–2, 11, 31, 127, 129, 131–33, 175, 209 business case and, 207 choices and, 62–63 cost-benefit analysis in, 177–86, 189, 194 decision fatigue and, 63–64 decision tree in, 186–90, 194, 215 Eisenhower Decision Matrix, 72–74, 89, 124, 125 irreversible, 61–62, 223–24 opportunity cost and, 76–77, 80, 83, 179, 182, 188, 305 past, analyzing, 201, 271–72 pro-con list in, 175–78, 185, 189 reversible, 61–62 sequences of, 144 small, tyranny of, 38, 55 utilitarianism and, 189–90 Declaration of Independence, 222 deep work, 72, 76, 88, 278 default effect, 87–88 Defense, U.S.


pages: 159 words: 42,401

Snowden's Box: Trust in the Age of Surveillance by Jessica Bruder, Dale Maharidge

anti-communist, Bay Area Rapid Transit, Berlin Wall, blockchain, Broken windows theory, Burning Man, cashless society, Chelsea Manning, citizen journalism, computer vision, crowdsourcing, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Ferguson, Missouri, Filter Bubble, Firefox, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, Julian Assange, license plate recognition, Mark Zuckerberg, mass incarceration, medical malpractice, Occupy movement, off grid, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, Robert Bork, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Skype, social graph, Steven Levy, Tim Cook: Apple, web of trust, WikiLeaks

In the realm of law enforcement, predictive software is already making the world look a little more like Philip K. Dick’s “The Minority Report,” the 1956 science fiction short story that became a Spielberg film. Pentagon-backed research for predicting war casualties has been adapted into technology that law enforcement agencies use to forecast crime. Sold by a firm called PredPol, the software has been compared by critics to the widely discredited “broken windows” theory of policing. They note that it perpetuates discrimination and does not predict white-collar crime. Meanwhile, Palantir, the $20 billion data analytics firm cofounded by Peter Thiel, has drawn protests for selling its services to ICE and the NYPD. (Meanwhile, executives raised eyebrows by sponsoring “thirteen-course tasting-menu lunches with lobster tail and sashimi at headquarters” as the company hemorrhaged money, a show of what critics dubbed “Palantir Entitlement Syndrome.”)

pp. 112–13 “internet of people” and locking workers in the bathroom: Erik Lorenzsonn, “Wisconsin Company That Microchipped Its Workers Envisions an ‘Internet of People,’” Cap Times, January 24, 2018. p. 113 Pentagon-backed research used to forecast crime: Ali Winston and Ingrid Burrington, “A Pioneer in Predictive Policing Is Starting a Troubling New Project,” Verge, April 26, 2018. p. 113 “broken windows” theory: Sarah Childress, “The Problem with “Broken Windows” Policing,” Frontline, June 28, 2016, pbs.org. p. 113 it perpetuates discrimination: Nathan Munn, “This Predictive Policing Company Compares Its Software to ‘Broken Windows’ Policing,” Vice, June 11, 2018. p. 113 Palantir draws protests: Rob Copeland and Eliot Brown, “Palantir Has a $20 Billion Valuation and a Bigger Problem: It Keeps Losing Money,” Wall Street Journal, November 12, 2018.


pages: 266 words: 87,411

The Slow Fix: Solve Problems, Work Smarter, and Live Better in a World Addicted to Speed by Carl Honore

Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, Broken windows theory, call centre, Checklist Manifesto, clean water, clockwatching, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, Dava Sobel, delayed gratification, drone strike, Enrique Peñalosa, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ernest Rutherford, Exxon Valdez, fundamental attribution error, game design, income inequality, index card, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John Harrison: Longitude, lateral thinking, lone genius, medical malpractice, microcredit, Netflix Prize, planetary scale, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, ultimatum game, urban renewal, War on Poverty

They began landing prestigious jobs as violinists, cellists and trombone players. In the three decades since screen auditions became the norm the number of women playing in leading US orchestras has risen fivefold. The general cultural drift towards gender equality played a part, but without the introduction of blind auditions women would probably still sound worse than men. In sociology, the power of the telling detail is neatly distilled in the “broken window theory.” This holds that even the tiniest whiff of disorder, a broken window in a building, for instance, or a daub of graffiti on a wall, can set a tone that fuels more anti-social behaviour. In 2011 a group of researchers at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands showed how this works in practice. In one experiment they placed advertising flyers on bicycles parked in an alley with a sign prohibiting graffiti.

The most sophisticated algorithm will never capture all the subjective and emotional dimensions of problem-solving. Even after a problem is fixed, we struggle to prove exactly why. Take the sharp fall in crime in New York over the last generation. Even after years of mining the data, academics still cannot agree on precisely why it happened. Was it caused by changes in policing techniques? Zero tolerance? Higher incarceration rates? Better race relations? Rising prosperity? A canny use of the broken window theory? Falling numbers of unwanted children after the legalisation of abortion in 1973? Was it some combination of all of these, or were there other, deeper trends or triggers that we have yet to spot? We will never know for sure. In a complex world, the only certainty is uncertainty. That is why the best fixers seldom bet the farm on a single epic win. The way to navigate through a scenario of ever-changing parameters and possibilities, according to complexity theorists at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico, is to blend lots of baby steps with the occasional great leap forward.

Poor spend heavily on lighting: Robert Bacon et al, “Expenditure of Low-Income Households on Energy,” Extractive Industries for Development, Series 16, World Bank, 16 June 2010. Women musicians sounded better behind screens: Claudia Goldin and Cecilia Rouse, “Orchestrating Impartiality: The Impact of ‘Blind’ Auditions on Female Musicians,” American Economic Review, Volume 90, Number 4 (September 2000), pp. 715–41. Broken window theory and effects of graffiti: Kees Keizer, Siegwart Lindenberg and Linda Steg, “The Spreading of Disorder,” Science 12, Volume 322, Number 5908 (December 2008), pp. 1681–5. John Wooden and basketball socks: Atul Gawande, “Top Athletes and Singers Have Coaches. Should You?” New Yorker, 3 October 2011. Van Halen and the M&Ms: Jacob Ganz, “The Truth about Van Halen and Those Brown M&Ms,” NPR’s The Record (February 2012).


pages: 349 words: 95,972

Messy: The Power of Disorder to Transform Our Lives by Tim Harford

affirmative action, Air France Flight 447, Airbnb, airport security, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, assortative mating, Atul Gawande, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, Barry Marshall: ulcers, Basel III, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Broken windows theory, call centre, Cass Sunstein, Chris Urmson, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, crowdsourcing, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Erdős number, experimental subject, Ferguson, Missouri, Filter Bubble, Frank Gehry, game design, global supply chain, Googley, Guggenheim Bilbao, high net worth, Inbox Zero, income inequality, industrial cluster, Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Loebner Prize, Louis Pasteur, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, Merlin Mann, microbiome, out of africa, Paul Erdős, Richard Thaler, Rosa Parks, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, telemarketer, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Turing test, urban decay, William Langewiesche

But more pertinent, it was our eagerness to believe what his fraudulent study was telling us—to overestimate the ill effects of mess, to imagine that tidying up would have profoundly transformative effects on our moral selves, rather than just make our morning commute more pleasant—that led to its generating so much publicity. Not all messes have redeeming features: a train station that isn’t strewn with litter is more pleasant than one that is. It’s worth sweeping the platforms. But tidying up isn’t going to turn us into better people. • • • The story of the “broken windows” theory of urban decay is another example of how we instinctively overestimate the benefits of tidying up certain kinds of urban mess. The theory was proposed in an influential article in The Atlantic Monthly in 1982 by criminologist George Kelling and political scientist James Q. Wilson. Kelling and Wilson argued that small signs of disorder led to the breakdown of community norms and, eventually, to serious criminality.

Then Zimbardo smashed part of it with a sledgehammer. Soon, passersby were joining in. Within a few hours, the car had been turned upside down and utterly destroyed.27 Interesting, but it is a stretch to build a theory of urban decay on what happens after one psychologist takes one sledgehammer to one car in one California city. The truth is that social science has not been able to muster much support for the broken windows theory of policing, nor for the idea that it deserves credit for breaking New York City’s crime wave in the 1990s. There is no shortage of explanations for the decline in crime, and any plausible explanation must deal with the fact that crime fell across the United States, not just in New York. Steve Levitt, the economist now famous for the Freakonomics books, surveyed the evidence in 2004. He began by looking at newspaper accounts of the trend, and found that broken windows policing usually got the credit for the fall in crime.

., 51 Bonding, 36–39, 41, 57, 60 Bonin, Pierre-Cédric, 178–82, 185–86, 199 Borges, Jorge Luis, 234–39 Bose Corporation, 76, 78 Bösendorfer piano, 1–2 Boston, Route 128 technology cluster in, 214–15 Boston Attention and Learning Lab, 16 Boulder (Col.), 46–47 Bowie, David, 7–9, 16, 17n, 20, 25, 28 Boy Scouts, 42 Boyd, John, 132–35, 137, 140, 144, 264 “Boys Keep Swinging” (Bowie), 21, 22 Bradley, Sarah, 92 Brailsford, Dave, 58 Brand, Stewart, 79 Brandes, Vera, 1–3, 5 Braun, Allen, 99–100 Bridging, 38–39, 41, 57 Brin, Sergey, 81 Britain. See United Kingdom “Broken windows” theory, 221–25 Brown, Dan, 64, 67 Brown, Michael, 55 Bryars, Gavin, 17n Building 20 (MIT). See Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Bulgaria, 157 Bunce, Steve, 120 Burkina Faso, 120n Bush dynasty, 131, 132, 135, 139 Business Etiquette Handbook, The, 85 Byrne, David, 16 Cage, John, 75 Calendar management, 240–43 California, University of, San Francisco, 209, 281n4 Campbell, Robert, 79 Canada, 55 Cannae, Battle of, 134 Carlsen, Magnus, 120–21 Carson, Shelley, 17, 18 Carter, Jimmy, 217 Carthage, 134 Caterpillar Inc., 175 Catmull, Ed, 63, 87–89 CBS, 85 Cesarean sections (C-sections), 153–55, 210–11 Chambers, Paul, 96 Checklists, 30, 64, 234 ambiguous regulations versus, 172 messy transformation of.


pages: 561 words: 114,843

Startup CEO: A Field Guide to Scaling Up Your Business, + Website by Matt Blumberg

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, airport security, Albert Einstein, bank run, Ben Horowitz, Broken windows theory, crowdsourcing, deskilling, fear of failure, high batting average, high net worth, hiring and firing, Inbox Zero, James Hargreaves, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Lean Startup, Mark Zuckerberg, minimum viable product, pattern recognition, performance metric, pets.com, rolodex, Rubik’s Cube, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype

STAYING MENTALLY FRESH I keep myself mentally fresh for work by maintaining a basic level of self-discipline. Having my act together in small ways makes me feel like I have my act together in all ways. It’s a little like the “Broken Windows” theory of policing formulated by George L. Kelling and James Q. Wilson in the early 1980s: if you crack down on graffiti and broken windows, you stop more violent crime, in part because the same people commit small and large crimes and in part because you create a more orderly society in visible, if sometimes a bit small and symbolic, ways. At Your Company These are some of the ways I apply the “Broken Windows” theory to my own life and work as a CEO: Have a clean inbox at the end of the day. This also comes from David Allen’s theory of workplace productivity and it works. A clean mind is free to think, dream and solve problems.

INDEX A Absey, Anita The Advantage: Why Organizational Health Trumps Everything Else in Business (Lencioni) Alignment, driving aligning individual incentives with global goals five keys to “Analog analogue” B Baer, Josh Baldonero, Angela Benchmarking, value and limitations of Bilbrey, George Blank, Steven Gary Blumberg, Bob Blumberg, Mariquita Board of directors building advisory board compensating feedback process members recruiting structuring as teams compensation and review, working with board on CEO’s compensation CEO’s performance review expenses decision making and firing a CEO making difficult decisions in concert managing conflict meeting materials Board Book value of preparing for meetings, effective executive and closed sessions forward-looking agenda, building in-meeting materials protocol scheduling staff/board interactions non–board meeting time ad hoc meetings premeetings social outings serving on other boards basics of substance vs. style value of reasons for having Bootstrapping company’s cash flow customer financing Bottom-up approach “Broken Windows” theory Business pivots (changes in substance) C “Can You Say What Your Strategy Is?” (Collis & Rukstad) Catcher Hypothesis CEO communication, cheat sheet for firing as functional supervisor rules for general managers performance review role in execution Cleveland Airport test Climbing Mount Improbable (Dawkins) Coach, working with purpose of value of Colonna, Jerry Company building, critical elements of communication patterns driving force expenses, policies about geography office, type of personal acknowledgment staffing and compensation systems time off, policies about Company culture, crafting company values environment of trust, building fig wasp 879 work-life balance Company operating system, creating modes of operating rhythms Compensation determining, general guidelines for three elements of base pay equity incentive pay pay reductions Competition good and bad playing hardball playing offense vs. playing defense Consolidating Covey, Stephen Coy, Jen D Data, collecting external learning from customers learning from (un)employees internal productive eavesdropping skip-level meetings subbing Debt bank loans convertible debt personal debt venture debt Defining and testing the story admitting you’re wrong lean business plan template channels cost structure and revenue streams customer segments key metrics problem solution unique value proposition and unfair advantage Development plans, sample Dickerson, Chad Difficult business situation, managing in Diversifying Divestiture Drucker, Peter E Economic downturn, managing in Employees.


pages: 898 words: 266,274

The Irrational Bundle by Dan Ariely

accounting loophole / creative accounting, air freight, Albert Einstein, Alvin Roth, assortative mating, banking crisis, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, Burning Man, business process, cashless society, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, computer vision, corporate governance, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, end world poverty, endowment effect, Exxon Valdez, first-price auction, Frederick Winslow Taylor, fudge factor, George Akerlof, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, IKEA effect, Jean Tirole, job satisfaction, Kenneth Arrow, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, lake wobegon effect, late fees, loss aversion, Murray Gell-Mann, new economy, Peter Singer: altruism, placebo effect, price anchoring, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, Saturday Night Live, Schrödinger's Cat, second-price auction, Shai Danziger, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Skype, software as a service, Steve Jobs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, ultimatum game, Upton Sinclair, Walter Mischel, young professional

This is the real cost of even minor instances of cheating and the reason we need to be more vigilant in our efforts to curb even small infractions. So what can we do about it? One hint may lie in the Broken Windows Theory, which was the basis of a 1982 Atlantic article by George Kelling and James Wilson. Kelling and Wilson proposed a critical component of keeping order in dangerous neighborhoods, and it wasn’t just putting more police on the beat. They argued that if people in a run-down area of town see a building with a few broken, long-unrepaired windows, they will be tempted to break even more windows and create further damage to the building and its surroundings, creating a blight effect. Based on the Broken Windows Theory, they suggested a simple strategy for preventing vandalism: fix problems when they are small. If you repair each broken window (or other misbehaviors) immediately, other potential offenders are going to be much less likely to misbehave.

If you repair each broken window (or other misbehaviors) immediately, other potential offenders are going to be much less likely to misbehave. Although the Broken Windows Theory has been difficult to prove or refute, its logic is compelling. It suggests that we should not excuse, overlook, or forgive small crimes, because doing so can make matters worse. This is especially important for those in the spotlight: politicians, public servants, celebrities, and CEOs. It might seem unfair to hold them to higher standards, but if we take seriously the idea that publicly observed behavior has a broader impact on those viewing the behavior, this means that their misbehavior can have greater downstream consequences for society at large. In contrast to this view, it seems that celebrities are too often rewarded with lighter punishments for their crimes than the rest of the population, which might suggest to the public that these crimes and misdemeanors are not all that bad.

Similarly, understanding how conflicts of interest work and how deeply they influence us makes it clear that we need to avoid and regulate conflicts of interest to a much higher degree. We also need to understand the effects that the environment, as well as mental and physical depletion, plays in dishonesty. And of course, once we understand the social infectiousness of dishonesty, we could take a cue from the Broken Windows Theory to combat the social contagion of cheating. INTERESTINGLY, WE ALREADY have many social mechanisms in place that seem to be designed specifically for resetting our moral compass and overcoming the “what-the-hell” effect. Such resetting rituals—ranging from the Catholic confession to Yom Kippur, and Ramadan to the weekly Sabbath—all present us with opportunities to collect ourselves, stop the deterioration, and turn a new page.


pages: 306 words: 85,836

When to Rob a Bank: ...And 131 More Warped Suggestions and Well-Intended Rants by Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbus A320, airport security, augmented reality, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, feminist movement, food miles, George Akerlof, global pandemic, information asymmetry, invisible hand, loss aversion, mental accounting, Netflix Prize, obamacare, oil shale / tar sands, Pareto efficiency, peak oil, pre–internet, price anchoring, price discrimination, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, Richard Thaler, Sam Peltzman, security theater, Ted Kaczynski, the built environment, The Chicago School, the High Line, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, US Airways Flight 1549

abortion, 65–66, 288 Absolute Poker website, 154–58 academia: bribing kids, 337–40 school open house, 219–20 teacher cheating, 103–4, 160–61 tenure, 16–19 Adams, Brandon, 193–94 addictions, rational, 92–94 advice, best, 347–50 African women, survey of, 237 airports, shutting down, 21–23 airport security, 5–6, 11, 108–9, 251–53 Akerlof, George, 162 Allie (high-end call girl), 261–67 altruism, 324–28 Altucher, James, 196–98 anchoring, 309 animated films, voices in, 305–7 animus, discrimination theory, 321–22 anti-fraud measures, 106 aptonyms, 43–47 Armstrong, Lance, 153 Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem, 29 Arum, Bob, 72–73 Asian tsunami, 325–26 assets, non-fungible, 68 athletes: gambling on, 73 income taxes of, 72–74 aviation congestion, 21–23 baby formula, 303–5 backgammon, 195–98 Badenhausen, Kurt, 74 Baltimore Sun, The, 233 bank robberies, 223–26 baseball, steroids, 152–53 baseballs, autographed, 80–81 Becker, Gary, 9–10, 92–94 behavioral economics, 120, 122, 308–9 Belichick, Bill, 149–50, 208–9 Berlin brothel, 173 Bertrand, Marianne, 347 Betjeman, John, 282 Bing, Stanley, 277 bin Laden, Osama, 57–59 bird-watching, 286–87 blackjack, 189–91 bling, 184 blogs, 1–4, 37 as kaleidoscopes, 271 “blood injuries,” 148–49 Bloomberg, Michael, 240 Blount, Roy Jr., 217 Bolt, Usain, 74 books, 14–16 about business, 283–87 bullshit in titles, 276–77, 285 diet, 117 fake memoirs, 146–48 God in titles, 285–87 on iPad, 124–25 bowling, 204–6 Boxer, Barbara, 51 boxing, 72–73 Boxwell Brothers, 46 Braga, Anthony, 246 Bratton, Bill, 163 Broderick, Matthew, 101–2 “broken windows” theory of crime, 163 Brooks, Arthur, 329–31 Brown, Philip H., 326 bullshit, in book titles, 276–77, 285 Bunning, Jim, 58 Burress, Plaxico, 216, 239, 240–41 bus, boarding, 143–46 Bush, George W., 51, 108, 136 Caesars Entertainment, 126–27 Caesar’s Palace, 189–91 “Captain Steve,” 82–86 Carnegie, Andrew, 16 carnivores, 179–84 cars: child safety seats, 103–6 conspicuous consumption, 184–85 incivility in driving, 161–64 prices of, 54–57 Carson, Rachel, 181 Case, Justin, 46 Castro, Jesus “Manny” Jr., 248–49 chain letters, 141–42 Champagne, Dom Perignon, 40 charitable giving: disasters, 324–28 street handouts, 328–37 cheating: to be hot, 135–37 and “blood injuries,” 148–49 fake memoirs, 146–48 how not to cheat, 153–55 as human nature, 135 Mumbai train system, 140–41 at poker, 153–58 in self-reporting, 137–40 in sports, 148–50 on taxes, 11–14, 72–74, 122, 158–60 by teachers, 103–4, 160–61 chess, 196–98 Chicago Tribune, poll, 279 chicken, rancid, 307–11 chicken wings, prices of, 75–77 child abduction, 133 children, bribing, 337–40 child safety seats, 103–6 China: crime in, 226–28 earthquake in, 324–28 infant formula in, 303–5 Clemens, Roger, 149, 150 climate change, 179–84 Clinton, Hillary, 51 Coca-Cola, formula of, 59–60 Cohn, Alain, 228–29 Coinstar, 64 Collins, Jim, 283–84 Congress, U.S.: and bin Laden bounty, 57–59 and IRS, 12–14 tax code written by, 158–60 conspicuous consumption, 184–85 contests, 91 addictions, 92–94 motto for U.S., 96–99 rigged, 136 Twitter, 94–96 Cook, Phil, 246 Cope, Myron, 215, 216 corporate sponsorships, 81 cover-ups, 121, 157 Cowen, Tyler, 329, 331–33 Cowher, Bill, 218 Craig, Larry, 45 crime: and abortion, 288 bank robberies, 223–26 “broken windows” theory of, 163 burglary, 242 child abduction, 133 in China, 226–28 gun deaths, 245–51 and gun laws, 243–45 intruders, 241–43 priming criminals, 228–29 prison sentences, 128, 224, 242, 245, 248, 260 street gangs, 229–36, 246–47, 248–49 and The Wire, 229–33 volatile rates of, 244 Cuban, Mark, 329, 333 cyclists, Tour de France, 151–53 Cyrus, Miley, 306 Daily Show, The, 273–74 Dal Bó, Ernesto, 33–34 Daly, John, 277 dangerous activities: horseback riding, 101–3 obesity as result of, 116–19 walking drunk, 101 Daschle, Tom, 158, 160 Dawkins, Richard, 286 decision making, 120–21, 208–9 democracy, alternative to, 29–31 Dennett, Daniel, 286 dental wisdom, 275–76 diapers, cloth vs. disposable, 167 diminishing marginal returns, 203 disasters, and charitable giving, 324–28 discrimination, statistical, 321–22 divorce, statistics on, 345 Dohmen, Thomas, 212 Doleac, Jennifer, 320–21 Donohue, John, 288 doomsday prophets, 109–10 doping, in Tour de France, 151–53 driving: and the environment, 166–67 incivility in, 161–64 drugs, prescription, prices of, 51–54 Duke, Annie, 188 Duncan, Arne, 103–4 Duskiewicz, Bernie, 348–49 ecological invalidity, 335 economics: behavioral, 120, 122, 206, 308–9 invisible hand in, 315 morality vs., 288 visible hand in, 319–22 writing about, 287–88 Edlin, Aaron, 88 Ehrenreich, Barbara, 329, 333–34 Ehrlich, Paul, 109, 114 Eikenberry (funeral director), 46 Endangered Species Act, 165–66 Engelberger, Perfect, 40 environment: cloth vs. disposable diapers, 167 and conspicuous consumption, 184–85 and driving, 166–67 eating meat, 179–84 Endangered Species Act, 165–66 global warming, 87–89, 179–84 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 171–72, 177, 180 locavores, 168–72 and packaging, 175–78 paper vs. plastic bags, 167 petroleum extraction, 109–16 Prius “green halo,” 185 and profitability, 172–74 saving the rain forest, 174–75 veganism, 179–84 Ericsson, Anders, 199, 201 escort (high-end call girl), 261–67 evaluation function (EV), 197 experts, ten thousand hours of practice, 199, 201–2 Fanning, Dakota, 305 fear of strangers, 130–33 Feinstein, Dianne, 53 Feldman, Paul, 69 feminist movement, 346–47 Ferraz, Claudio, 33 films, animated, 305–7 Finan, Frederico, 33 first-grade data hound, 219–20 fishing, 348–49 flight attendants, 19–20 food: chicken wings, 75–77 decayed, 177 deliciousness of, 170 kiwifruits, 77–80 locavores, 168–72 nutritional value of, 170 and obesity, 116–18 packaging of, 175–78 poor service, 272–73 rancid chicken, 307–11 shrimp, 341–44 transportation inefficiencies of, 170–72 wasting, 177–78 football: Immaculate Reception, 216 loss aversion, 206–9 Pittsburgh Steelers, 212–19 rookie symposium, 239–41 Fox, Kevin, 253 Frakes, Michael, 117 Frankfurt, Harry, 276 Freakonomics (Levitt & Dubner), 1–2, 37, 40, 54, 69, 101, 105, 135, 160, 223, 253–4, 261, 274, 277, 280, 297–98, 305, 322, 351 Freakonomics.com, 1–4, 8, 233 Freakonomics radio, 268–69 Frederick, Shane, 341–43 Freed, Pam, 342 Friedman, Milton, 23 Frost, Robert, 218 Fryar, Irving, 239–40 Fryer, Roland, 228, 288, 328–29, 337, 339 Fuller, Thomas, 194–95 Gacy, John Wayne Jr., 39 Gagné, Éric, 149 gambling: on athletes, 73 backgammon, 195–98 blackjack, 189–91 on horse racing, 191, 220–22 how not to cheat, 153–55 Internet poker, 127–30, 157 on newspaper circulation, 233 one card away from final table, 192–95 Rochambeau (Rock, Paper, Scissors), 188–89 on teams, 125–26 unbreakable record, 192 World Series of Poker, 187–88, 192–95 GAME (Gang Awareness Through Mentoring and Education), 248–49 gas, moratorium on, 311–14 gas prices, 86–90 Gates, Bill, 16 Geiger, Bernice, 224 Geithner, Tim, 158 gender identity, 228 Gladstone, Bernard, 258, 259 global warming, 88–89, 179–84 Gly-Oxide, 275–76 God, in book titles, 285–87 Goeree, Jacob, 31 Goldstein, Dan, 335 golf, 198–206 Goodall, Chris, 167 Good to Great (Collins), 283–84, 285 Goolsbee, Austan, 160 Gordon, Phil, 187–89, 192, 193 Goss, Pat, 200–201 government: and gambling income, 129 paying politicians, 32–36 voting mechanisms, 29–31 Greatest Good, 28, 300–301 Greene, Mean Joe, 216 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 171–72, 177 Grossman, Michael, 116 Gruber, Jonathan, 117 Grzelak, Mandi, 268–69 guns: anonymous tips about, 247 athletes carrying concealed weapons, 240–41 concealed weapons laws, 242 D.C. ban on, 243–45 deaths from, 245–51 illegal use of, 245 ownership of, 245 shooting intruders with, 241–43 Hagen, Ryan, 314–19 happiness, 122–23, 344–47 Harold’s Chicken Shack, 75–77 Harris, Franco, 216 Hatcher, Teri, 305 hate mail, cost of, 49–51 health care: British National Health Service, 26–29 decisions in, 122 Hemenway, David, 249–50 Henderson, Kaya, 160 herd mentality, 143–46 Hitchens, Christopher, 286 hoaxes, 282–83 Holmes, Santonio, 214–16 home, building your own, 170 home field advantage, 209–12 homelessness, 330–31 horseback riding, 101–3 horse racing, 220–22 housing prices, 67–69 Hurricane Katrina, 42–43, 325–28 Hussein, Saddam, 58 identity, concept of, 162–63 Immaculate Reception, 216 impure altruism, 328 incentives, 17, 32–36, 65, 95–96, 110, 113, 122, 136, 166, 337–40 inefficiencies, transportation, 170–72 INS (Immigration and Naturalization Service), Form N-400, 237–38 In Search of Excellence (Peters and Waterman), 284 Internet poker, 127–30, 157 iPad, 124–25 Irfan, Atif, 130–32 irrational decisions, 120–21 IRS, 11–14, 159–60, 257 Jackson, Vincent, 215 Jacob, Brian, 160 Jagger, Mick, 74 Jarden Zinc, 63 J.F.K. airport, 21–22 Jines, Linda Levitt: brother’s eulogy for, 297–301 father’s interventions, 289–97 and Freakonomics, 277, 297–98 Jingjing Zhang, 31 Johnson, Larry, 207 Johnston, David Cay, 11–12 Kaczynski, Ted (Unabomber), 287 Kahneman, Daniel, 3, 119–24, 206 Katrina (popular name), 42–43 Kennedy, Bobby, 279 Kentucky Derby, 220–22 Keyes, Alan, 279 KFC, 272–73 Killefer, Nancy, 158 kiwifruits, 77–80 Kormendy, Amy, 169 Kranton, Rachel, 162 Kulkarni, Ganesh, 140–41 Laffer curve, 72 LaGuardia Airport, 21–23 LaHood, Ray, 21, 103–6 Lake George, boat accident on, 118–19 Lancaster, Barbara, 219 Landsburg, Steven, 259 Lane, Mary MacPherson, 173 Las Vegas: blackjack, 189–91 poker, 127–30, 153–58, 187–89, 192–95 risk aversion in, 126–27 Lee, Jennifer 8., 41 Lee Hsien Loong, 32 Leeson, Peter, 314–19 Levitt, Michael, “When a Daughter Dies,” 289–97 libraries, public, 14–16 lies of reputation, 137–40 Limberhand (masturbator), 45–46 List, John, 125, 165, 228, 327–28, 338 lobbyists, 62–63 locavores, 168–72 loss aversion, 206–9 Loveman, Gary, 127 ludicity (ludic fallacy), 335 Ludwig, Jens, 246–48 Maass, Peter, 109, 114 Madoff, Bernie, 133 Malthus, Rev.

.: and bin Laden bounty, 57–59 and IRS, 12–14 tax code written by, 158–60 conspicuous consumption, 184–85 contests, 91 addictions, 92–94 motto for U.S., 96–99 rigged, 136 Twitter, 94–96 Cook, Phil, 246 Cope, Myron, 215, 216 corporate sponsorships, 81 cover-ups, 121, 157 Cowen, Tyler, 329, 331–33 Cowher, Bill, 218 Craig, Larry, 45 crime: and abortion, 288 bank robberies, 223–26 “broken windows” theory of, 163 burglary, 242 child abduction, 133 in China, 226–28 gun deaths, 245–51 and gun laws, 243–45 intruders, 241–43 priming criminals, 228–29 prison sentences, 128, 224, 242, 245, 248, 260 street gangs, 229–36, 246–47, 248–49 and The Wire, 229–33 volatile rates of, 244 Cuban, Mark, 329, 333 cyclists, Tour de France, 151–53 Cyrus, Miley, 306 Daily Show, The, 273–74 Dal Bó, Ernesto, 33–34 Daly, John, 277 dangerous activities: horseback riding, 101–3 obesity as result of, 116–19 walking drunk, 101 Daschle, Tom, 158, 160 Dawkins, Richard, 286 decision making, 120–21, 208–9 democracy, alternative to, 29–31 Dennett, Daniel, 286 dental wisdom, 275–76 diapers, cloth vs. disposable, 167 diminishing marginal returns, 203 disasters, and charitable giving, 324–28 discrimination, statistical, 321–22 divorce, statistics on, 345 Dohmen, Thomas, 212 Doleac, Jennifer, 320–21 Donohue, John, 288 doomsday prophets, 109–10 doping, in Tour de France, 151–53 driving: and the environment, 166–67 incivility in, 161–64 drugs, prescription, prices of, 51–54 Duke, Annie, 188 Duncan, Arne, 103–4 Duskiewicz, Bernie, 348–49 ecological invalidity, 335 economics: behavioral, 120, 122, 206, 308–9 invisible hand in, 315 morality vs., 288 visible hand in, 319–22 writing about, 287–88 Edlin, Aaron, 88 Ehrenreich, Barbara, 329, 333–34 Ehrlich, Paul, 109, 114 Eikenberry (funeral director), 46 Endangered Species Act, 165–66 Engelberger, Perfect, 40 environment: cloth vs. disposable diapers, 167 and conspicuous consumption, 184–85 and driving, 166–67 eating meat, 179–84 Endangered Species Act, 165–66 global warming, 87–89, 179–84 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 171–72, 177, 180 locavores, 168–72 and packaging, 175–78 paper vs. plastic bags, 167 petroleum extraction, 109–16 Prius “green halo,” 185 and profitability, 172–74 saving the rain forest, 174–75 veganism, 179–84 Ericsson, Anders, 199, 201 escort (high-end call girl), 261–67 evaluation function (EV), 197 experts, ten thousand hours of practice, 199, 201–2 Fanning, Dakota, 305 fear of strangers, 130–33 Feinstein, Dianne, 53 Feldman, Paul, 69 feminist movement, 346–47 Ferraz, Claudio, 33 films, animated, 305–7 Finan, Frederico, 33 first-grade data hound, 219–20 fishing, 348–49 flight attendants, 19–20 food: chicken wings, 75–77 decayed, 177 deliciousness of, 170 kiwifruits, 77–80 locavores, 168–72 nutritional value of, 170 and obesity, 116–18 packaging of, 175–78 poor service, 272–73 rancid chicken, 307–11 shrimp, 341–44 transportation inefficiencies of, 170–72 wasting, 177–78 football: Immaculate Reception, 216 loss aversion, 206–9 Pittsburgh Steelers, 212–19 rookie symposium, 239–41 Fox, Kevin, 253 Frakes, Michael, 117 Frankfurt, Harry, 276 Freakonomics (Levitt & Dubner), 1–2, 37, 40, 54, 69, 101, 105, 135, 160, 223, 253–4, 261, 274, 277, 280, 297–98, 305, 322, 351 Freakonomics.com, 1–4, 8, 233 Freakonomics radio, 268–69 Frederick, Shane, 341–43 Freed, Pam, 342 Friedman, Milton, 23 Frost, Robert, 218 Fryar, Irving, 239–40 Fryer, Roland, 228, 288, 328–29, 337, 339 Fuller, Thomas, 194–95 Gacy, John Wayne Jr., 39 Gagné, Éric, 149 gambling: on athletes, 73 backgammon, 195–98 blackjack, 189–91 on horse racing, 191, 220–22 how not to cheat, 153–55 Internet poker, 127–30, 157 on newspaper circulation, 233 one card away from final table, 192–95 Rochambeau (Rock, Paper, Scissors), 188–89 on teams, 125–26 unbreakable record, 192 World Series of Poker, 187–88, 192–95 GAME (Gang Awareness Through Mentoring and Education), 248–49 gas, moratorium on, 311–14 gas prices, 86–90 Gates, Bill, 16 Geiger, Bernice, 224 Geithner, Tim, 158 gender identity, 228 Gladstone, Bernard, 258, 259 global warming, 88–89, 179–84 Gly-Oxide, 275–76 God, in book titles, 285–87 Goeree, Jacob, 31 Goldstein, Dan, 335 golf, 198–206 Goodall, Chris, 167 Good to Great (Collins), 283–84, 285 Goolsbee, Austan, 160 Gordon, Phil, 187–89, 192, 193 Goss, Pat, 200–201 government: and gambling income, 129 paying politicians, 32–36 voting mechanisms, 29–31 Greatest Good, 28, 300–301 Greene, Mean Joe, 216 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 171–72, 177 Grossman, Michael, 116 Gruber, Jonathan, 117 Grzelak, Mandi, 268–69 guns: anonymous tips about, 247 athletes carrying concealed weapons, 240–41 concealed weapons laws, 242 D.C. ban on, 243–45 deaths from, 245–51 illegal use of, 245 ownership of, 245 shooting intruders with, 241–43 Hagen, Ryan, 314–19 happiness, 122–23, 344–47 Harold’s Chicken Shack, 75–77 Harris, Franco, 216 Hatcher, Teri, 305 hate mail, cost of, 49–51 health care: British National Health Service, 26–29 decisions in, 122 Hemenway, David, 249–50 Henderson, Kaya, 160 herd mentality, 143–46 Hitchens, Christopher, 286 hoaxes, 282–83 Holmes, Santonio, 214–16 home, building your own, 170 home field advantage, 209–12 homelessness, 330–31 horseback riding, 101–3 horse racing, 220–22 housing prices, 67–69 Hurricane Katrina, 42–43, 325–28 Hussein, Saddam, 58 identity, concept of, 162–63 Immaculate Reception, 216 impure altruism, 328 incentives, 17, 32–36, 65, 95–96, 110, 113, 122, 136, 166, 337–40 inefficiencies, transportation, 170–72 INS (Immigration and Naturalization Service), Form N-400, 237–38 In Search of Excellence (Peters and Waterman), 284 Internet poker, 127–30, 157 iPad, 124–25 Irfan, Atif, 130–32 irrational decisions, 120–21 IRS, 11–14, 159–60, 257 Jackson, Vincent, 215 Jacob, Brian, 160 Jagger, Mick, 74 Jarden Zinc, 63 J.F.K. airport, 21–22 Jines, Linda Levitt: brother’s eulogy for, 297–301 father’s interventions, 289–97 and Freakonomics, 277, 297–98 Jingjing Zhang, 31 Johnson, Larry, 207 Johnston, David Cay, 11–12 Kaczynski, Ted (Unabomber), 287 Kahneman, Daniel, 3, 119–24, 206 Katrina (popular name), 42–43 Kennedy, Bobby, 279 Kentucky Derby, 220–22 Keyes, Alan, 279 KFC, 272–73 Killefer, Nancy, 158 kiwifruits, 77–80 Kormendy, Amy, 169 Kranton, Rachel, 162 Kulkarni, Ganesh, 140–41 Laffer curve, 72 LaGuardia Airport, 21–23 LaHood, Ray, 21, 103–6 Lake George, boat accident on, 118–19 Lancaster, Barbara, 219 Landsburg, Steven, 259 Lane, Mary MacPherson, 173 Las Vegas: blackjack, 189–91 poker, 127–30, 153–58, 187–89, 192–95 risk aversion in, 126–27 Lee, Jennifer 8., 41 Lee Hsien Loong, 32 Leeson, Peter, 314–19 Levitt, Michael, “When a Daughter Dies,” 289–97 libraries, public, 14–16 lies of reputation, 137–40 Limberhand (masturbator), 45–46 List, John, 125, 165, 228, 327–28, 338 lobbyists, 62–63 locavores, 168–72 loss aversion, 206–9 Loveman, Gary, 127 ludicity (ludic fallacy), 335 Ludwig, Jens, 246–48 Maass, Peter, 109, 114 Madoff, Bernie, 133 Malthus, Rev.


pages: 1,351 words: 385,579

The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined by Steven Pinker

1960s counterculture, affirmative action, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, British Empire, Broken windows theory, business cycle, California gold rush, Cass Sunstein, citation needed, clean water, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, crack epidemic, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, demographic transition, desegregation, Doomsday Clock, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, experimental subject, facts on the ground, failed state, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, fudge factor, full employment, George Santayana, ghettoisation, Gini coefficient, global village, Henri Poincaré, Hobbesian trap, humanitarian revolution, impulse control, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, long peace, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Marshall McLuhan, mass incarceration, McMansion, means of production, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Singer: altruism, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, Republic of Letters, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, security theater, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, South China Sea, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, Turing machine, twin studies, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

In some cities, like Boston, the police were accompanied by parole officers who knew the worst troublemakers individually and had the power to have them rearrested for the slightest infraction.164 In New York, police headquarters tracked neighborhood crime reports obsessively and held captains’ feet to the fire if the crime rate in their precinct started to drift upward.165 The visibility of the police was multiplied by a mandate to go after nuisance crimes like graffiti, littering, aggressive panhandling, drinking liquor or urinating in public, and extorting cash from drivers at stoplights after a cursory wipe of their windshield with a filthy squeegee. The rationale, originally articulated by James Q. Wilson and George Kelling in their famous Broken Windows theory, was that an orderly environment serves as a reminder that police and residents are dedicated to keeping the peace, whereas a vandalized and unruly one is a signal that no one is in charge.166 Did these bigger and smarter police forces actually drive down crime? Research on this question is the usual social science rat’s nest of confounded variables, but the big picture suggests that the answer is “yes, in part,” even if we can’t pinpoint which of the innovations did the trick.

Once the epitome of urban rot, New York is now one of America’s safest cities, having enjoyed a slide in the crime rate that was twice the national average and that continued in the 2000s after the decline in the rest of the country had run out of steam.167 As the criminologist Franklin Zimring put it in The Great American Crime Decline, “If the combination of more cops, more aggressive policing, and management reforms did account for as much as a 35% crime decrease (half the [U.S.] total), it would be by far the biggest crime prevention achievement in the recorded history of metropolitan policing.”168 What about Broken Windows policing in particular? Most academics hate the Broken Windows theory because it seems to vindicate the view of social conservatives (including former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani) that violence rates are driven by law and order rather than by “root causes” such as poverty and racism. And it has been almost impossible to prove that Broken Windows works with the usual correlational methods because the cities that implemented the policy also hired a lot of police at the same time.169 But an ingenious set of studies, recently reported in Science, has supported the theory using the gold standard of science: an experimental manipulation and a matched control group.

The commuters had to detach the flyer before they could ride their bikes, but the researchers had removed all the wastebaskets, so they either had to carry the flyer home or toss it on the ground. Above the bicycles was a prominent sign prohibiting graffiti and a wall that the experimenters had either covered in graffiti (the experimental condition) or left clean (the control condition). When the commuters were in the presence of the illegal graffiti, twice as many of them threw the flyer on the ground—exactly what the Broken Windows theory predicted. In other studies, people littered more when they saw unreturned shopping carts strewn about, and when they heard illegal firecrackers being set off in the distance. It wasn’t just harmless infractions like littering that were affected. In another experiment, passersby were tempted by an addressed envelope protruding from a mailbox with a five-euro bill visible inside it. When the mailbox was covered in graffiti or surrounded by litter, a quarter of the passersby stole it; when the mailbox was clean, half that many did.


pages: 91 words: 22,748

Outer Order, Inner Calm: Declutter and Organize to Make More Room for Happiness by Gretchen Rubin

A Pattern Language, Airbnb, Broken windows theory, endowment effect, place-making

For most people, it’s deeply calming to see outer order emerge. Perhaps it’s the tangible sense of control, or the relief from visual noise, or the release from guilt and frustration. Creating order—even with things as mundane as socks or supplies—gives a disproportionate boost of energy and cheer. There’s so much we can’t control, but we can control our stuff. Create order. FIX YOUR “BROKEN WINDOWS.” The “broken windows” theory of policing holds that when a community tolerates minor examples of disorder and petty crime, such as broken windows, graffiti, turnstile jumping, or drinking in public, serious crimes are more likely to ensue. As a law-enforcement theory, it’s controversial, but whether or not it’s true on a citywide level, I think it’s true on a personal level. When our environment is disorderly, it’s easier for our behavior to become disorderly.


pages: 309 words: 96,434

Ground Control: Fear and Happiness in the Twenty First Century City by Anna Minton

Albert Einstein, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Boris Johnson, Broken windows theory, call centre, crack epidemic, credit crunch, deindustrialization, East Village, energy security, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, ghettoisation, hiring and firing, housing crisis, illegal immigration, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Kickstarter, moral panic, new economy, New Urbanism, race to the bottom, rent control, Richard Florida, Right to Buy, Silicon Valley, Steven Pinker, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Spirit Level, trickle-down economics, University of East Anglia, urban decay, urban renewal, white flight, white picket fence, World Values Survey, young professional

He came up with his concept of ‘defensible space’ when looking at ways of reducing crime in public housing in New York. The starting point for his research was that urban America was witnessing a breakdown in society and that crime was spiralling beyond police control. The only solution, he claimed, was a new form of urban design based on the idea that the design of the environment, rather than social problems, influences behaviour – similar thinking to the Broken Windows theory discussed in Chapter 7 – and that the way to change behaviour was by controlling the environment rather than improving social conditions. In 1973 he published his landmark study, which was entitled Defensible Space: People and Design in the Violent City. His conclusions were based on research showing that high-rise living produced higher crime rates than low-rise housing projects.14 Researching three deprived neighbourhoods, Newman’s main finding was that what he described as ‘territoriality’ creates space which defends itself.

The problems connected with antisocial behaviour are real, but what is ironic is that, despite the government’s emphasis, most people are not that concerned by it; only 16 per cent told the British Crime Survey that antisocial behaviour was a ‘fairly big’ or ‘big’ problem in their area.32 That is a very small percentage compared with the whopping 80 per cent of Britons who fear that crime is going up when it isn’t. So why has so much time and energy been spent creating policies on antisocial behaviour in an attempt to tackle the rising fear of crime? Like so many of the policy ideas in this book, the agenda was imported from America and comes down to a theory of crime called the Broken Windows theory. ‘BROKEN WINDOWS’ First outlined by James Q. Wilson and George Kelling in a famous article in Atlantic Monthly in 1982, Broken Windows is a zero-tolerance approach to policing. The article argued that tolerating minor routine incivilities, such as window breaking, begging and drunkenness, increases ‘respectable fears’ and encourages a spiral of community decline. ‘One unrepaired broken window is a signal that no one cares, and so breaking more windows costs nothing,’ they wrote, implying that the presence of broken windows will encourage people to break more windows and lead to more serious crime.33 Mirroring the same language more than twenty years later, the Anti-Social Behaviour White Paper said: ‘If a window is broken or a wall is covered in graffiti it can contribute to an environment in which crime takes hold, particularly if intervention is not prompt and effective.


pages: 327 words: 88,121

The Vanishing Neighbor: The Transformation of American Community by Marc J. Dunkelman

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, assortative mating, Berlin Wall, big-box store, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, Broken windows theory, business cycle, call centre, clean water, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, David Brooks, delayed gratification, different worldview, double helix, Downton Abbey, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Santayana, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, global supply chain, global village, helicopter parent, if you build it, they will come, impulse control, income inequality, invention of movable type, Jane Jacobs, Khyber Pass, Louis Pasteur, Marshall McLuhan, McMansion, Nate Silver, obamacare, Occupy movement, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, Richard Florida, rolodex, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Skype, social intelligence, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, telemarketer, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the medium is the message, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, urban decay, urban planning, Walter Mischel, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

But, as Sampson’s research indicates, it’s actually more important that community norms—even if they’re established among strangers—maintain a standard of safety and decorum. Disapproving looks from the couple sitting on a park bench, or the good example set by the woman who keeps up her front lawn, have a more powerful effect on a community’s civic health than neighborly ties. And in that, Sampson’s argument echoes James Q. Wilson and George Kelling’s “broken windows” theory, introduced in the early 1980s, which suggested that the implicit sign of disorder sent by an unrepaired pane of glass has the potential to set off a wave of criminality.18 This points to an auspicious element of networked community. If vitality doesn’t go hand in hand with the middle rings, then a society full of vibrant networks—even if they’re made up of hermits—might well signal an important step forward.

., 136–37 Atlantic, 46, 199 Aung San Suu Kyi, 64 authenticity, personal, 64–66 automobile industry, 10, 172, 175, 205 autonomy, 68, 73 baby boomers, 6, 28, 127, 133, 197, 198, 205 bands (overnight camps), 92, 94, 95, 96 banks, xv, xvii, 180, 181 Barbados, 179–81, 191 basketball, 8–9, 11–12 Bell, Daniel, 249n Bellah, Robert, 65–66, 73, 81 Bell Labs, 164, 173 belongingness, 4–5, 74, 110 Bender, Thomas, 83–84, 138 Berg, Joel, 62 Beverly Hillbillies, The (TV show), 36 “be yourself,” 63–66, 73–74, 102–3, 149, 218 bigotry, 117, 149, 237 Big Sort, The (Bishop with Cushing), 48, 50, 95, 135, 147, 238 Big Three, the, 8–9 bin Laden, Osama, 56 biology, 90–94 Bipartisan Policy Center, 188–89 Birmingham, England, 166–67 Bishop, Bill, 47–48, 95, 124, 135, 147, 184, 189, 238 Bissell, Cassandra, 140 blacks, see African Americans blogs, 36, 37, 109–10, 187 Bosh, Chris, 8–9 Boston, Mass., 33, 55, 84 Bowling Alone (Putnam), 7, 97, 99–100, 113–16, 119, 120, 134–35, 141, 149, 151–52, 192, 193 brain, 90–92, 94, 98, 121, 143, 144–45, 223–24 Brazil, 178–79, 267n Brokaw, Tom, 70 “broken windows” theory, 150 Brooks, David, 46–47, 48, 229 Brown University, 163 budget, federal, xv–xvi Buffalo, N.Y., ix–xi, xviii, 97, 136, 137, 170, 196–97, 240 Buffett, Warren, 27 bureaucracy, 16, 52, 110, 194, 202, 203, 204, 206, 210 Burke, Edmund, 81, 232 Burt, Ronald, 165, 168, 266n buses, 33–35 Bush, George W., 47, 54, 67, 184, 255n business, xvii, 10, 16, 52, 131–32, 163–68, 175–76, 235 in Barbados vs.


pages: 98 words: 30,109

Remote: Office Not Required by Jason Fried, David Heinemeier Hansson

Broken windows theory, David Heinemeier Hansson, en.wikipedia.org, equal pay for equal work, Google Hangouts, job satisfaction, Kevin Kelly, remote working, Richard Florida, Ruby on Rails, Silicon Valley, Skype

That’s also why it’s as important to continuously monitor the work atmosphere as to hire for it. It’s never a good idea to let poisonous people stick around to spoil it for everyone else, but in a remote-work setup it’s deadly. When you’re a manager and your employees are far flung, it’s impossible to see the dread in their eyes, and that can be fatal. With respect to drama, it therefore makes sense to follow the “No Broken Windows” theory of enforcement. What are we talking about? Well, in the same way that New York cracked down in the ’90s on even innocuous offenses like throwing rocks through windows or jumping the turnstile, a manager of remote workers needs to make an example of even the small stuff—things like snippy comments or passive-aggressive responses. While this responsibility naturally falls to those in charge, it works even better if policed by everyone in the company.


pages: 392 words: 112,954

I Can't Breathe by Matt Taibbi

"side hustle", activist lawyer, affirmative action, Broken windows theory, desegregation, Donald Trump, East Village, Ferguson, Missouri, Frank Gehry, mass incarceration, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ronald Reagan, Snapchat, War on Poverty

This used the preposterously aggressive technique of blasting certain areas of subway stations at odd hours with water from high-powered hoses. Ostensibly designed to clean the subway stations, the hoses’ actual objective was to blast away the people who were using those stations at odd hours—which meant the homeless. George Kelling opposed the tone-deaf Commando program. This was a real chance to try out his Broken Windows theory in the biggest city in America, and he didn’t want it going sideways. He insisted that any program that stereotyped people instead of focusing on behavior was wrong and in any event would be opposed by the police asked to do those jobs. Kelling was anxious to keep Broken Windows from turning into a symbol of thuggery and state-sanctioned racism. He wanted it to be perceived as fair. And he wanted the police enforcing his ideas to feel like they weren’t doing something to outrage their consciences.

Kelling, unwittingly perhaps, had set in motion a massive government program that would be warped from the beginning by a chilling syllogistic construct: New Yorkers who are afraid of crime are already victims. Many New Yorkers are scared of black people. Therefore, being black is a crime. — In 1994, the newly elected Rudy Giuliani empowered Bill Bratton to run America’s largest police force. Bratton not only committed his army to George Kelling’s Broken Windows theory but to a separate mania that belonged much more to him personally: statistics. The academic in George Kelling spent a lot of time thinking about more amorphous issues, like how safe people did or didn’t feel under certain kinds of police strategies. The hard-charging, macho Bratton was more intensely interested in counting the progress of cops. The idea of the friendly street patrolman idly policing a block that had one or two muggings a month had no appeal to him.


pages: 829 words: 186,976

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't by Nate Silver

"Robert Solow", airport security, availability heuristic, Bayesian statistics, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, business cycle, buy and hold, Carmen Reinhart, Claude Shannon: information theory, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, Donald Trump, Edmond Halley, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, Freestyle chess, fudge factor, George Akerlof, global pandemic, haute cuisine, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, housing crisis, income per capita, index fund, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Laplace demon, locking in a profit, Loma Prieta earthquake, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, Nate Silver, negative equity, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pets.com, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, security theater, short selling, Skype, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons

Kelling introduced what they called the “broken windows” theory of crime deterrence.71 The idea was that by focusing on smaller-scale types of crime, like vandalism and misdemeanor drug offenses,72 police could contribute to an overall climate of lawfulness and therefore prevent bigger crime. The empirical evidence for the merit of this theory is quite mixed.73, 74 However, the theory was very warmly embraced by police departments from Los Angeles to New York because it lowered the degree of difficulty for police departments and provided for much more attainable goals. It’s much easier to bust a sixteen-year-old kid for smoking a joint than to solve an auto theft or prevent a murder. Everybody likes to live in a cleaner, safer neighborhood. But it’s unclear whether the broken-windows theory is more than window dressing.

Murrah Federal Building, 425 algorithms, 265, 426 all-in bet, 306 Allison, Graham, 433–35 Al Qaeda, 422, 424, 425, 426, 433, 435–36, 440, 444 Alzheimer’s, 420 Amazon.com, 352–53, 500 American exceptionalism, 10 American Football League (AFL), 185–86, 480 American League, 79 American Stock Exchange, 334 Amsterdam, 228 Anchorage, Alaska, 149 Anderson, Chris, 9 Angelo, Tommy, 324–26, 328 animals, earthquake prediction and, 147–48 Annals of Applied Statistics, 511–12 ANSS catalog, 478 Antarctic, 401 anthropology, 228 antiretroviral therapy, 221 Apple, 264 Archilochus, 53 Arctic, 397, 398 Arianism, 490 Aristotle, 2, 112 Armstrong, Scott, 380–82, 381, 388, 402–3, 405, 505, 508 Arrhenius, Svante, 376 artificial intelligence, 263, 293 Asia, 210 asset-price bubble, 190 asymmetrical information, 35 Augustine, Saint, 112 Australia, 379 autism, 218, 218, 487 availability heuristic, 424 avian flu, see bird flu A/Victoria flu strain, 205–6, 208, 483 Babbage, Charles, 263, 283 Babyak, Michael, 167–68 baby boom, 31 Babylonians, 112 Bachmann, Michele, 217 bailout bills, 19, 461 Bak, Per, 172 Baker, Dean, 22 Bane, Eddie, 87 Bank of England, 35 Barbour, Haley, 140 baseball, 9, 10, 16, 74–106, 128, 426, 446, 447, 451n aging curve in, 79, 81–83, 81, 83, 99, 164 betting on, 286 luck vs. skill in, 322 minor league system in, 92–93 results in, 327 rich data in, 79–80, 84 Baseball America, 75, 87, 89, 90, 90, 91 Baseball Encyclopedia, 94 Baseball Prospectus, 75, 78, 88, 297 basic reproduction number (R0), 214–15, 215, 224, 225, 486 basketball, 80n, 92–93, 233–37, 243, 246, 256, 258, 489 batting average, 86, 91, 95, 100, 314, 321, 321, 339 Bayer Laboratories, 11–12, 249 Bayes, Thomas, 240–43, 251, 253, 254, 255, 490 Bayesian reasoning, 240, 241–42, 259, 349, 444 biases and beliefs in, 258–59 chess computers’ use of, 291 Christianity and, 490 in climatology, 371, 377–78, 403, 406–7, 407, 410–11 consensus opinion and, 367 Fisher’s opposition to, 252 gambling esteemed in, 255–56, 362 priors in, 244, 245, 246, 252, 255, 258–59, 260, 403, 406–7, 433n, 444, 451, 490, 497 stock market and, 259–60 Bayes’s theorem, 15, 16, 242, 243–49, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250, 258, 266, 331, 331, 448–49, 450–51 in poker, 299, 301, 304, 306, 307, 322–23 Beane, Billy, 77, 92, 93–94, 99–100, 103, 105–7, 314 Bear Stearns, 37 beauty, complexity and, 173 beer, 387, 459 behavioral economics, 227–28 Belgium, 459 Bellagio, 298–99, 300, 318, 495 bell-curve distribution, 368n, 496 Bengkulu, Indonesia, 161 Benjamin, Joel, 281 Berlin, Isaiah, 53 Berners-Lee, Tim, 448, 514 BetOnSports PLC, 319 bets, see gambling Betsy, Hurricane, 140 betting markets, 201–3, 332–33 see also Intrade biases, 12–13, 16, 293 Bayesian theory’s acknowledgment of, 258–59 in chess, 273 and errors in published research, 250 favorite-longshot, 497 of Fisher, 255 objectivity and, 72–73 toward overconfidence, 179–83, 191, 203, 454 in polls, 252–53 as rational, 197–99, 200 of scouts, 91–93, 102 of statheads, 91–93 of weather forecasts, 134–38 Bible, 2 Wicked, 3, 13 Biden, Joseph, 48 Big Data, 9–12, 197, 249–50, 253, 264, 289, 447, 452 Big Short, The (Lewis), 355 Billings, Darse, 324 Bill James Baseball Abstract, The, 77, 78, 84 bin Laden, Osama, 432, 433, 434, 440, 509 binomial distribution, 479 biological weapons, 437, 438, 443 biomedical research, 11–12, 183 bird flu, 209, 216, 229 Black, Fisher, 362, 367, 369 “Black Friday,” 320 Black Swan, The (Taleb), 368n Black Tuesday, 349 Blanco, Kathleen, 140 Blankley, Tony, 50 Blodget, Henry, 352–54, 356, 364–65, 500 Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, 199, 335–36 Bluefire, 110–11, 116, 118, 127, 131 bluffing, 301, 303, 306, 310, 311, 328 Bonus Baby rule, 94 books, 2–4 cost of producing, 2 forecasting and, 5 number of, 2–3, 3, 459 boom, dot-com, 346–48, 361 Boston, 77 Boston Red Sox, 63, 74–77, 87, 102, 103–5 Bowman, David, 161–62, 167 Box, George E. P., 230 Brady, Brian, 158, 159 brain, information storage capacity of, 12 breadth, depth vs., 271–73 breast cancer, 245–46, 246, 248, 250 Brier score, 474 British Medical Journal, 254 “broken windows” theory of crime, 439 Brown, Shawn, 226 Brownian noise, 173 Bryant, Kobe, 233–34, 237 bubbles, 38, 195, 333, 356, 357, 369–70 credit, 68, 196 difficulty of bursting, 360, 362, 367 dot-com, 346–48, 361 efficient-market hypothesis and, 346–52 housing, see housing bubble real-time identification of, 347–48, 369–70 signals of, 366 Buchanan, Pat, 48, 50 bugs: in Deep Blue, 283, 285, 286, 288–89 in models, 285–86 Bulgaria, 52 Bureau of Economic Analysis, 481 Bush, George H.


pages: 503 words: 131,064

Liars and Outliers: How Security Holds Society Together by Bruce Schneier

airport security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Brian Krebs, Broken windows theory, carried interest, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, commoditize, corporate governance, crack epidemic, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, desegregation, don't be evil, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Douglas Hofstadter, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, George Akerlof, hydraulic fracturing, impulse control, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, iterative process, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Julian Assange, longitudinal study, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nate Silver, Network effects, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, patent troll, phenotype, pre–internet, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Coase, security theater, shareholder value, slashdot, statistical model, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, too big to fail, traffic fines, transaction costs, ultimatum game, UNCLOS, union organizing, Vernor Vinge, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey, Y2K, zero-sum game

More and more, it's used to mean isolated wrongdoers whose actions don't affect anyone else in the group. The entire phrase is “one bad apple spoils the entire bunch,” and is intended to explicitly highlight how the reputation of one person can taint the reputation of all people in the group. Incidentally, this is actually true for apples stored in a root cellar. A spoiled apple will cause the rest of the apples to spoil. (14) The logical extreme of this idea is the “broken windows theory” of John Q. Wilson and George Kelling, that visible signs of criminal activity like broken windows and abandoned cars actually incite people to commit crimes. Wilson and Kelling believed that if you clean up these visible signs of lawlessness, a neighborhood will become safer overall; societal pressures against petty crime will cause a reduction in violent crime. It sounds good, and Kelling used the theory to explain the dramatic drop in crime in New York City in the 1990s, but it turns out there's not much actual evidence that it's true.Researchers compared New York City and other cities, and found that New York's punitive measures against low-level visible lawlessness—a lot of which might be considered punitive measures against homelessness—didn't make much of a difference.

Ultimatum Game Bargaining Among the Machiguenga of the Peruvian Amazon,” American Economic Review, 90:973–9. wash their hands John M. Lynn (2000), “Method and Apparatus for Helping to Ensure the Washing of Hands,” U.S. Patent #6,031,461. John M. Lynn (2000), “Method and Apparatus for Helping to Ensure the Washing of Hands,” U.S. Patent #6,147,607. Fiona A. Lynn and John M. Lynn (2001), “Method and Apparatus for Helping to Ensure the Washing of Hands,” U.S. Patent #6,211,788. broken windows theory James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling (Mar 1982), “Broken Windows,” Atlantic Monthly, 127:29–38. George L. Kelling (17 Jul 2009), “How New York Became Safe: The Full Story,” City Journal. Researchers compared Khaled Taqi-Eddin and Dan Macallair (1999), “Shattering Broken Windows: An Analysis of San Francisco's Alternative Crime Policies,” Justice Policy Institute. Randall G. Shelden (2003), “Assessing ‘Broken Windows': A Brief Critique,” Center on Juvenile & Criminal Justice.


Adam Smith: Father of Economics by Jesse Norman

"Robert Solow", active measures, Andrei Shleifer, balance sheet recession, bank run, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Broken windows theory, business cycle, business process, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, centre right, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, colonial exploitation, Corn Laws, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crony capitalism, David Brooks, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial intermediation, frictionless, frictionless market, future of work, George Akerlof, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, incomplete markets, information asymmetry, intangible asset, invention of the telescope, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, lateral thinking, loss aversion, market bubble, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, means of production, money market fund, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, moral panic, Naomi Klein, negative equity, Network effects, new economy, non-tariff barriers, Northern Rock, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, Philip Mirowski, price mechanism, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, random walk, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, scientific worldview, seigniorage, Socratic dialogue, South Sea Bubble, special economic zone, speech recognition, Steven Pinker, The Chicago School, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, time value of money, transaction costs, transfer pricing, Veblen good, Vilfredo Pareto, Washington Consensus, working poor, zero-sum game

Of course more than one of these factors may be in play at the same time. Graffiti, for example, can be the result of an artistic calling; a heedless act irrespective of the beliefs or interests of others; a deliberate attempt to annoy and provoke; or it can reflect a principled belief that a particular public space should be contested in some way. The result may be a stable but inefficient and anti-social equilibrium. The well-known ‘broken windows’ theory reflects the insight that minor disorder tends to escalate unless tackled, and (more controversially) claims that serious crime can be prevented as a result. Different subcultures can vary widely in the norms they obey. In October 2002, the Clinton–Schumer Amendment allowed the city of New York to tow illegally parked diplomatic vehicles, revoke diplomats’ United Nations parking permits and deduct 110 per cent of the total amount of any fines due from US aid given to the country of origin.

See standing army Arrow, Kenneth, 193–195, 205–206, 213, 222, 244 Arrow securities, 244 Asia, 274–275, 330 Asquith, Herbert, 23 asset markets, 247–249, 252 assets, of moral identity, 303 asymmetries, of power, 282–283, 285 Austria, 69 Ayr Bank crisis, 89, 91–93, 99–100, 174, 253 Bacon, Francis, 163 The Masculine Birth of Time by, 214 natural philosophy of, 164–165 The New Atlantis by, 164 on science, 166 Bagehot, Walter, 277 Balliol, 23–26 Bank of England, 92 banking system international, 259–260 loans in, 249–250 regulation of, 254 in Scotland, 88–89, 91–92 banks capital and, 108 financial products of, 250 lobbying by, 261 regulation of, 254, 259 rent-extraction by, 260–261 See also Ayr Bank crisis Becker, Gary, 215 behaviour, 169–170, 196, 209, 222 human, 29, 197 in markets, 236–237 The Theory of Moral Sentiments on, 201 The Wealth of Nations on, 221 benevolence, 56–57 bent markets, 283–284 Bentham, Jeremy, 21, 198, 201 Berkeley, Bishop, 25 big data, 281–282 bills of exchange, 92–93 birth, of Smith, A., 4 Black, Joseph, 126–127, 136–137, 152, 169 Blackstone, William, 100 Blair, Hugh, 124 Boston Tea Party, 103 Boswell, James, 6, 51–52, 127–128, 132, 154–155 Bradstreet, Dudley, 35 Bretton Woods Agreement, 252 Breyer, Stephen, 258 Britain. See England broken windows theory, 309 Brougham, Henry, 200 Brown, Gordon, xi Buccleuch, Duke of, 81–84, 86–88, 91, 93, 132 Buchanan, James, 271 Buffett, Warren, 224–225 Burke, Edmund, xv–xvi, 66, 101, 125, 138–140, 150, 258 Burns, Robert, 60–61 Butler, Bishop, 76 Calas, Jean, 83, 288–291 campaign finance law, 258 Canongate Church, 133 capital accumulation, 181–182 banks and, 108 in cash account, 89 circulating, fixed, 110 in markets, 273–274 money and, 91–92, 108 services in, 111 shortage, in Scotland, 89, 91 Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Piketty), 259 capitalism, 258–259, 265 commercial society and, 325–326 corporate, 267 equality and, 273–276 franchise, khaki, licence, 263 globalization and, 287 monopoly, 263 wealth-creation in, 275, 321 See also crony capitalism; narco-capitalism cases, effects and, 44 cash account, 89, 92 Catholicism, 31–32, 83, 163–164, 183, 288–289 Cato (Addison), 8 Charles I (king), 47 Charles II (king), 12 church funding, 120–121 state and, 120–121 Church of England, 22 Church of Scotland, 18, 127 circulating capital, 110 Citizens United v.


pages: 229 words: 67,869

So You've Been Publicly Shamed by Jon Ronson

4chan, AltaVista, Berlin Wall, Broken windows theory, Burning Man, Clive Stafford Smith, cognitive dissonance, Desert Island Discs, different worldview, don't be evil, Donald Trump, drone strike, Google Hangouts, illegal immigration, Menlo Park, PageRank, Ralph Nader, Rosa Parks, Silicon Valley, Skype, Stanford prison experiment, Steve Jobs, urban planning, WikiLeaks

Sometimes the most modest of changes can bring about enormous effects.’ Gladwell’s essay was a sensation - one of the most influential articles in the magazine’s history. It sold the aggressive policing tactic to thoughtful, liberal New York City people - the sorts of people who wouldn’t normally support such a draconian idea. He gave a generation of liberals permission to be more conservative. He became a marketing tool for the Broken Windows theory. His book The Tipping Point went on to sell two million copies, launching his career and the careers of the countless other pop-science writers who followed in his footsteps, like Jonah Lehrer. But Gladwell’s essay was wrong. Subsequent data revealed that violent crime had been dropping in New York City for five years before Broken Windows was implemented. It was plummeting at the same rate all over America.


pages: 211 words: 67,975

The Victory Machine: The Making and Unmaking of the Warriors Dynasty by Ethan Sherwood Strauss

Broken windows theory, collective bargaining, Donald Trump, hive mind, If something cannot go on forever, it will stop - Herbert Stein's Law, side project, Silicon Valley, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs

Eventually, Warriors Ops men grew tired of the spot in part because so many business-side guys would attempt to ingratiate themselves during the games. The pickup games moved to the Warriors practice court, a place at a remove from the business side. Given that division, one in which Ops towered over business in prestige, prioritizing the business side might have been a curious strategy. Doubly so, considering how the Warriors’ issues were thought to be mostly basketball related. It was something like an organizational broken window theory, as dictated by venture capitalists. Lacob believed that incompetence on the business side and elsewhere informed a general lack of cohesion. In September 2011, the well-regarded Rick Welts was brought on from the Phoenix Suns to be chief operating officer. He would soon be tasked with the herculean goal of building a basketball arena in San Francisco, a task he would complete. In April 2011, the Warriors hired thirty-six-year-old Bob Myers, a successful agent who was unproven in the world of team operations.


pages: 275 words: 84,980

Before Babylon, Beyond Bitcoin: From Money That We Understand to Money That Understands Us (Perspectives) by David Birch

agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, bank run, banks create money, bitcoin, blockchain, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Burning Man, business cycle, capital controls, cashless society, Clayton Christensen, clockwork universe, creative destruction, credit crunch, cross-subsidies, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, dematerialisation, Diane Coyle, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, double entry bookkeeping, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, fault tolerance, fiat currency, financial exclusion, financial innovation, financial intermediation, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, index card, informal economy, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, invention of the telegraph, invention of the telephone, invisible hand, Irish bank strikes, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Kuwabatake Sanjuro: assassination market, large denomination, M-Pesa, market clearing, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, new economy, Northern Rock, Pingit, prediction markets, price stability, QR code, quantitative easing, railway mania, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Real Time Gross Settlement, reserve currency, Satoshi Nakamoto, seigniorage, Silicon Valley, smart contracts, social graph, special drawing rights, technoutopianism, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, transaction costs, tulip mania, wage slave, Washington Consensus, wikimedia commons

. ******* Although when I spoke to the world’s leading authority on this film, Lana Swartz from the University of Virginia, she told me that there is no evidence of direct commercial support. ******** I enjoyed Moises Naim’s book Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers and Copycats are Hijacking the Global Economy (2010) about the emergence of cross-border, enterprise-scale organized crime. ******** As payments expert Scott Loftesness said on Twitter when we were discussing this, we need to remember the ‘broken window’ theory of policing. Chapter 7 Moving to mobile Machine intelligence will make us far smarter [because] our smart phones are basically supercomputers. — Eric Schmidt, Google’s executive chairman, at the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2015 Cards transformed the payments world but they did not, as was once thought, spell the end for cash. We can now see, with the perspective of decades of use, that it was a later invention that brought about the reinvention of money.


pages: 331 words: 98,395

Station Eleven by Emily St. John Mandel

Broken windows theory, Panamax, period drama

The men’s rooms were windowless, lit only by an ever-dwindling supply of scented candles from the gift shop, and the water had to be warmed over the fire outside, but Clark felt it was worth the effort. Several of the men in the airport weren’t shaving at all anymore, and the effect was wild and also frankly unflattering. Clark disliked the general state of unshavenness, partly for aesthetic reasons and partly because he was a believer in the broken-windows theory of urban-crime management, the way the appearance of dereliction can pave the way for more serious crimes. On Day Twenty-Seven he parted his hair neatly down the middle and shaved off the left side. “It’s the haircut I had from ages seventeen through nineteen,” he told Dolores when she raised an eyebrow at him. Dolores was a business traveler, single, no family, which meant that she was one of the saner people in the airport.


pages: 341 words: 116,854

The Devil's Playground: A Century of Pleasure and Profit in Times Square by James Traub

Anton Chekhov, Broken windows theory, Buckminster Fuller, Charles Lindbergh, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, fear of failure, intangible asset, Jane Jacobs, jitney, light touch regulation, megastructure, New Urbanism, Peter Eisenman, plutocrats, Plutocrats, price mechanism, rent control, Ronald Reagan, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal

A few months earlier, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a U.S. senator from New York and a distinguished social theorist, had said that a city in the throes of social disintegration had accepted a defeatist strategy of “defining deviancy down.” Moynihan described a place in which the forces of social control seemed to have surrendered to the forces of disorder. Giuliani cited this resonant expression in his speech, and mentioned instances of it that few could deny. He also drew on the “broken windows” theory, advanced by the criminologists George L. Kelling and James Q. Wilson, who had argued that “serious street crime flourishes in areas in which disorderly behavior goes unchecked. The unchecked pan-handler is, in effect, the first broken window.” Giuliani vowed to reverse the process by arresting the window breakers. As mayor, he did just that. Crime had begun to drop after Dinkins obtained the funds to increase the police force to unprecedented levels.


pages: 385 words: 118,314

Cities Are Good for You: The Genius of the Metropolis by Leo Hollis

Airbnb, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Boris Johnson, Broken windows theory, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, car-free, carbon footprint, cellular automata, clean water, cloud computing, complexity theory, congestion charging, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, Deng Xiaoping, digital map, East Village, Edward Glaeser, Enrique Peñalosa, Firefox, Frank Gehry, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, Gini coefficient, Google Earth, Guggenheim Bilbao, haute couture, Hernando de Soto, housing crisis, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Long Term Capital Management, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, Masdar, mass immigration, megacity, negative equity, new economy, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, openstreetmap, packet switching, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, place-making, Ray Oldenburg, Richard Florida, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, spice trade, Steve Jobs, technoutopianism, the built environment, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Great Good Place, the High Line, The Spirit Level, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, trade route, traveling salesman, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight, Y2K, Yom Kippur War

This is the natural process that regulates the daily biological rhythms, regulated by the hormone melatonin, secreted from a gland in the centre of the brain, which can have an impact on conditions such as Seasonal Affective Disorder. This has encouraged many architects to rethink the importance of sunlight within their design. It is this kind of experiment that informs environmental psychology, the link between place and behaviour. The power of this connection is also the thinking behind the well-known ‘broken windows theory’ that first appeared in a 1982 article by James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling in the Atlantic Monthly. In the essay, the authors reported on the relationship between disorder within a community and crime: a chaotic environment in which vandalism is a reflection of a ‘don’t care’ attitude. There, the authors proposed that it is better to repair broken windows in a run-down block than to wait for vandals to trash the whole building: ‘One broken window is a signal that no one cares, so breaking more windows costs nothing … “untended” behaviour also leads to the breakdown of community controls.’12 When Kelling went to work for New York City Hall the policy became part of a wider ‘zero-tolerance’ policing strategy.


pages: 349 words: 114,914

We Were Eight Years in Power: An American Tragedy by Ta-Nehisi Coates

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Broken windows theory, Charles Lindbergh, crack epidemic, crony capitalism, David Brooks, deindustrialization, desegregation, Donald Trump, fear of failure, Ferguson, Missouri, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, Howard Zinn, income inequality, jitney, low skilled workers, mandatory minimum, mass incarceration, moral panic, new economy, obamacare, payday loans, phenotype, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, single-payer health, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, War on Poverty, white flight

The young inner-city males who had so concerned Moynihan led “wasted and ruined” lives and constituted a threat that could “bring about the destruction of whole communities and cities across this Nation.” In seeming to abandon scholarship for rhetoric, Moynihan had plenty of company among social scientists and political pundits. James Q. Wilson, the noted social scientist and a co-creator of the “broken windows” theory of policing, retreated to abstract moralizing and tautology. “Drug use is wrong because it is immoral,” he claimed, “and it is immoral because it enslaves the mind and destroys the soul.” Others went further. “The inner-city crack epidemic is now giving birth to the newest horror,” the Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer declaimed: “A bio-underclass, a generation of physically damaged cocaine babies whose biological inferiority is stamped at birth.”


pages: 395 words: 116,675

The Evolution of Everything: How New Ideas Emerge by Matt Ridley

"Robert Solow", affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, AltaVista, altcoin, anthropic principle, anti-communist, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Boris Johnson, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Columbian Exchange, computer age, Corn Laws, cosmological constant, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of DNA, Donald Davies, double helix, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, endogenous growth, epigenetics, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, falling living standards, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, George Santayana, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, hydraulic fracturing, imperial preference, income per capita, indoor plumbing, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, land reform, Lao Tzu, long peace, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, Necker cube, obamacare, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, price mechanism, profit motive, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Feynman, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, smart contracts, South Sea Bubble, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, twin studies, uber lyft, women in the workforce

Elias argued that the habits of refinement, self-control and consideration that are second nature to us today had to be acquired. As time went by, people ‘increasingly inhibited their impulses, anticipated the long-term consequences of their actions, and took other people’s thoughts and feelings into consideration’. In other words, not blowing your nose on the tablecloth was all one with not stabbing your neighbour. It’s a bit like a historical version of the broken-window theory: intolerance of small crimes leads to intolerance of big ones. Doux commerce But how were these gentler habits acquired? Elias realised that we have internalised the punishment for breaking these rules (and the ones against more serious violence) in the form of a sense of shame. That is to say, just as Adam Smith argued, we rely on an impartial spectator, and we learned earlier and earlier in life to see his point of view as he became ever more censorious.


pages: 414 words: 119,116

The Health Gap: The Challenge of an Unequal World by Michael Marmot

active measures, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Atul Gawande, Bonfire of the Vanities, Broken windows theory, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Celtic Tiger, centre right, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, Doha Development Round, epigenetics, financial independence, future of work, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, illegal immigration, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, Kenneth Rogoff, Kibera, labour market flexibility, longitudinal study, lump of labour, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, New Urbanism, obamacare, paradox of thrift, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, RAND corporation, road to serfdom, Simon Kuznets, Socratic dialogue, structural adjustment programs, the built environment, The Spirit Level, trickle-down economics, twin studies, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent, working poor

SEWA negotiated loans equivalent to $500 for each household. The women themselves had to contribute $50, a great amount if you are living on $2 a day.44 The results are impressive: same streets, same modest houses, but spruced up, made pukka, and the required additions made. It feels cared for. I don’t know whether it would lead to less crime. It feels like it might, if there is anything to the broken windows theory.45 What is clear, though, is that women no longer have to stand in long queues to collect water, there is less water-borne disease, and as a result children lose fewer days of school. In Bonfire of the Vanities, the novelist Tom Wolfe talks of his obscenely rich banker achieving ‘isolation’ from the chaos of New York. He could have been living in New York, London or Frankfurt for all the contact he had with people who were not in his rarefied stratum.


pages: 1,631 words: 468,342

Home Comforts: The Art and Science of Keeping House by Cheryl Mendelson

biofilm, Broken windows theory, clean water, deskilling, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Indoor air pollution, indoor plumbing, Jacquard loom, Own Your Own Home, sensible shoes, spice trade, Telecommunications Act of 1996, telemarketer

That evening, the chair held not only the bathrobe and newspaper but also my husband’s dry cleaning, a plastic replica of the Millennium Falcon along with Luke Skywalker, a tube of antiseptic ointment, one copy of PC Magazine, and five Tinkertoys. (I remember because I recited the entire list to my smirking husband.) Yet this chair had stood entirely empty for the preceding six months. Modern police successes are allegedly built on a sociological principle called the “broken-window theory.” This theory says that any sign of social or physical neglect in a neighborhood causes people who are pre-disposed to antisocial conduct to feel more inclined to commit various crimes and misdemeanors. If there is one broken window and it isn’t fixed, this suggests to malefactors that no one cares or that no one is in charge—that therefore it is safe to write graffiti on the walls, litter, and break other windows.

The first broken window, if not tended to, leads eventually to total social deterioration. Thus, by making sure that graffiti, broken windows, and “quality-of-life” crimes are immediately stopped or tended to, police have drastically reduced the serious-crime rates in many big cities. At least this is the claim, and there is good evidence that it is true. It sounds like common sense to most people. The broken-window theory certainly applies to every individual home, and the reason why it does is clear. When people are cooperating in maintaining a household, the domestic equivalent of an unrepaired broken window can result in a chain reaction that eventually sees the home in complete chaos. It happens like this. Someone is reading in his favorite chair while sipping a cup of tea, after slipping off his shoes to get comfortable.

children’s bath toys and, 430 cleaning tile with, 512 on colored fabrics, 299 containers, disposal of, 751 copper and, 558 cotton and, 242 dangerous mixed with acids or alkalies, 403, 432, 441-42, 514, 527, 744 on diapers, 360-61 drains and disposals and, 175 fabric and, 225-26 hard food-contact surfaces, cleaning and sanitizing, 173-75 leftover, disposal of, 751 linen and, 234, 239 non-food-contact surfaces, cleaning and sanitizing, 175-76, 433-34 nylon and 258 permanent-press clothes and, 250 plastics and, 527 resilient floors and, 507 sanitizing and disinfecting with, 173, 175-77, 376-77, 421, 427, 431-34 sheets and, 676-77 silk and, 249 sinks and, 524 spandex and, 262 stainless steel and, 531, 561 stain removal with, 382 testing of, 300 washing machine, how to add to, 312-13, 319 when not to use, 284, 297-98, 318-19, 382, 385, 386 on white and nearly white fabrics, 296-98 wool harmed by, 247 bleach, oxygen, 317-18 activated, 318 inactivated by chlorine bleach, 231 more effective in presoak, 312 nylon and, 258 testing of, 300 see also hydrogen peroxide bleeding, fabric dyes, 277, 282, 284, 295, 297, 298-99, 309, 313, 367-68 acetate, 256 madras, 266 polyester, 259 and sorting for drying, 331 blinds: aluminum, 542 cleaning of, 541-42 Venetian, 398, 542 see also shades bluestone, 516 bluing, 308, 312, 319-20, 370 bonds, see documents, records bone china, 543-44 see also china, fine books: antique, 616 bindings of, 614, 615-16 caring for, 612-16 and children, 595 cloth-bound, 615-16 dust jackets of, 613 handling of, 613-14 home library, 595 leather-bound, 614 lending of, 615 Post-its and, 614 preservation of, 612-14 reading chair, 594 reading light, 584-85 reference works, 595 repair of, 614-15 shelves for, 613 spines of, 613 sunlight and, 612 torn pages in, 615 boosters, laundry and detergent, 320 adding to machine, 312 ammonia as, 316 baking soda as, 292 borax as, 320 detergents and soaps, in some, 320, 322 in double wash, 304 fragile fabrics, can damage, 250 in handwashing sturdy items, 314 oxygen bleaches, in some, 317 for permanent press, 306 testing fabrics for colorfastness, 250 borax, 310, 403, 440, 443-44 boric acid powder, 662 bottle brushes, 737 bottled foods, see canned foods botulism, see food safety Bowers v. Hardwick (1986), 762 brass, 557-58 on antique furniture, 558 fireplace accessories, cleaning, 558 tarnish and, 558 bread: stale, revival of, 156 storage of, 160 breakfast, 52-54, 65 habitual foods and, 53 nooks, 69 place setting for, 63 breaking and entering, 765 broadcloth, 197 brocade, silk, 199 “broken window theory,” 31 bronze, 557-58 brooms and sweeping, 459-60, 506 brownstone, 516 brushes: bottle, 737 for cleaning blinds, 542 buckets, as hazards to children, 739 builders, detergent, 320 bulbs, see lightbulbs burglary, 764-65 burns: avoiding, 735-36 causes of, 708-9 butcher blocks, care of, 496 buttonholes, widening and narrowing of, 609-10 buttons, 602 sewing on, 608-9 shank, 608-9 two- and four-hole, 608 buying food, see marketing C cabinet storage of foods, see pantry and cabinet food storage cabinets: childproofing of, 743-44 medicine, 696-97 Cable Communication Policy Act (1984), 777 cable television: addressable converter for, 778 laws on, 777-78 V-chips, 777 Cable Television Consumer Protection and Competition Act (1992), 777 caffé latte, 78 cages, pet, cleaning of, 644-45 calcite, 444 calcium carbonate, 444, 688 calendering of fabric, 226 calico, 197 Caller ID, 773, 775 cambric, 197 Campylobacter jejuni, 162, 166, 179-80, 642 Canadian Standards Association (CSA), 694 Candida albicans, 376 candles, 61 safety with, 708 candlesticks, crystal, 548 candle wax, removal of: from carpets and upholstery, 486 from candlesticks, 548 from fabrics, 387 from tile, 514 from wood, 504 cane, 503 canned foods, 43, 44-45, 129-30, 155-60 botulism and, 164, 180-81 convenient storage of, 91 shelf-life of, 131-35 can openers, cleaning of, 120 cappuccino, 78 carbon dioxide, 414, 705 carbon monoxide, 412-14, 416, 593, 704, 705, 707 detectors, 413-15 warning signs of, 413 Care and Cleaning for Natural Stone Surfaces (Marble Institute of America), 519 care labels, 194-95, 276-87, 293 disregarding, when not to, 283-84 disregarding, when to, 282-83 fiber content, 194 FTC regulations, 278-282 limits of, 277-78 meaning of, 280-82 terms and symbols, 286-87 carnauba wax, 494 Carpet and Rug Institute (CRI), 468-69 carpet beetles, 688 carpet-cleaning services, 471 carpets and rugs, 466-74, 478-81, 517 antique, oriental, delicate, care of, 470, 472-73 in bedrooms, 655, 661 care of, 469-70 colorfastness of, 467 delicate, 472-73 dry-cleaning of, 471 dust mite allergens and, 452, 454, 455, 468 fleas in, 645 fumes from, 411, 468 glossary of, 478-81 handmade, 497 natural vs. synthetic fiber, 467 nonskid, 737 padding or underlay for, 274-75, 469 pests and, 468 pets and, 640, 641 rotation of, 497 rushes, grasses, sisal, care for, 473-74 selection of, 274 shampooing of, 470-71, 473 slips and falls and, 731-32 stain removal from, 471-72, 481-86 steam-cleaning of, 471 storage of, 470 structure of, 467-68 synthetic materials used in, 467 carpets and rugs (cont.)


pages: 1,261 words: 294,715

Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst by Robert M. Sapolsky

autonomous vehicles, Bernie Madoff, biofilm, blood diamonds, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Brownian motion, car-free, clean water, cognitive dissonance, corporate personhood, corporate social responsibility, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, desegregation, different worldview, double helix, Drosophila, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Flynn Effect, framing effect, fudge factor, George Santayana, global pandemic, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, impulse control, income inequality, John von Neumann, Loma Prieta earthquake, long peace, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mohammed Bouazizi, Monkeys Reject Unequal Pay, mouse model, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, out of africa, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, placebo effect, publication bias, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, Rosa Parks, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, stem cell, Steven Pinker, strikebreaker, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, traveling salesman, trickle-down economics, twin studies, ultimatum game, Walter Mischel, wikimedia commons, zero-sum game

Crucially, this is not inevitable—in circumstances where status is achieved through prosocial routes, the presence of women makes men more prosocial. As summarized in the title of one paper demonstrating this, this seems a case of “Male generosity as a mating signal.” We’ll return to this theme in the next chapter. Thus, our social environment unconsciously shapes our behavior over the course of minutes. As does our physical environment. Now we come to the “broken window” theory of crime of James Q. Wilson and George Kelling.38 They proposed that small signs of urban disarray—litter, graffiti, broken windows, public drunkenness—form a slippery slope leading to larger signs of disarray, leading to increased crime. Why? Because litter and graffiti as the norm mean people don’t care or are powerless to do anything, constituting an invitation to litter or worse. Broken-window thinking shaped Rudy Giuliani’s mayoralty in the 1990s, when New York was turning into a Hieronymus Bosch painting.

Cheese’s, 342n Churchland, Patricia, 541 Cinderella effect, 367 cities, 296, 298–99 civilizing process, 617 Civil War, 409, 662 Battle of Gettysburg, 554, 644 Clark, Kenneth and Mamie, 415 class, see socioeconomic status Clay, Henry, 285 cleanliness, 564–65 climate, 302–3 Clinton, Bill, 640 cognition, 617–18 adolescence and, 159 cognitive load, 49–50, 416–17, 546 empathy fatigue, 534–35 emotion and, 54–58 empathy and, 528, 531–35, 552 frontal cortex and, 47–50, 159 stages of cognitive development, 176–79 cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), 61 Cohen, Dov, 285, 286, 287 Cohen, Jonathan, 47, 58, 609 Cohn, Alain, 491 Cohn, Roy, 396 Colburn, Lawrence, 657, 658n, 658, 660, 670 Coles, Robert, 181n Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (Diamond), 302 collectivist cultures, 97, 156, 206–7, 273–82, 474, 501–3 Coming of Age in Samoa (Mead), 122 compassion, 15, 522, 523, 542 acts of, 542–45, 551, 614 effective, 545–46 in animals, 523–26 in children, 527–28 self-interest in, 547–50, 642 wealthy people and, 533–34 see also empathy compatibilism, 586 competition, 2–4, 15, 16 moral judgment and, 495–500 COMT (catechol-O-methyltransferase), 256–58 conditioned place preference, 103 confidence, 102–3, 237 confirmation biases, 403 conflict monitoring, 528–29 conflict resolution, sacred values in, 575–79, 643–44 conformity, see obedience and conformity congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), 215–18 consequentialism, 504–7, 520 consolation behavior, 525–26 contact theory, 420, 626–30 cooperation, 3, 4, 15, 547, 633–35 moral judgment and, 495–500, 508–9 optimal strategy for, 345–53 punishment used to promote, 635 starting, 353–54, 508–9 corporate personhood, 411n, 503 Correll, Joshua, 86 corruption, 267 Corry, Stephen, 315 cortex, 29 Cotton, Ronald, 641–42 Craddock, Sandie, 124 CRH (corticotropin-releasing hormone), 125, 129, 132, 708–9 Crick, Francis, 714 crime: abortion and, 190–91 broken window theory of, 95–96 income inequality and, 295 in 1970s and 1980s, 311 organized, 395–96 urbanization and, 296 Crimean War, 662 criminal justice system, 171, 253, 398, 502–3, 580–600, 608–12 adolescents and, 170–71, 589–90, 592–93 brain damage and, 590–91, 597, 598, 601–2, 609 and causation vs. compulsion, 593 cognitive biases in jurors, 582 and diminished responsibility for actions, 587 free will and, see free will judicial decisions, 448, 449, 483, 583, 643 neuroimaging data and, 582, 599 and starting a behavior vs. halting it, 594–95 and time course of decision making for action, 592–93 crises, cultural, 301–3 culture(s), 7, 11, 21, 266–327 adolescence and, 155–56 changes in, over time, 276–77 childhood and, 202–10 collectivist, 97, 156, 206–7, 273–82, 474, 501–3 crises and, 301–3 definitions of, 269–71 differences in, 271–73 gender-related, 272 diffusion and, 621 egalitarian, 291–96 of honor, 207, 283, 284, 501 American South, 207, 284–88, 501 honor killings in, 288–91, 290 human universals in, 271–72 hunter-gatherer, 291, 315–25, 318, 372–73, 407, 499, 616–17, 620 gods in, 297 Hadza, 317–19, 318, 498, 620 violence in, 319–25, 322 individualistic, 97, 156, 206–7, 273–82, 474, 501–3 learning in, 457 long-lasting effects of, 267 math skills and, 266–67, 406 moral judgments and, 275, 493–503 pastoral, 282–83, 288, 379 religion and, 283, 304 prehistoric and contemporary indigenous, 305–26, 307, 310, 318, 320, 322 religion in, see religion sensory processing and, 276 similarities in, 271–72 stratified, 291–96 stress responses and, 274–75 violence and, 272 Cushing’s syndrome, 151n Cyberball, 165–66, 529–30, 559 Dalai Lama, 544 Dale, Henry, 692 Dalton, Katharina, 123 Daly, Martin, 367 Damasio, Antonio, 28, 56, 61, 97, 507, 538 Darden, Chris, 396 Darkness in El Dorado: How Scientists and Journalists Devastated the Amazon (Tierney), 312n Darwin, Charles, 230n Darwin’s finches, 379 Das, Gopal, 147 Davidson, Richard, 544 Davis, Richard, 574–75 Dawkins, Richard, 330, 333, 361, 362 DeCasper, Anthony, 210–11 deception, 512–17 Decety, Jean, 180, 532 decision making, 38–39, 46–47 De Dreu, Carsten, 116–17 De Kock, Eugene, 629–30 Demonic Males: Apes and the Origins of Human Violence (Wrangham and Peterson), 316, 317 Dennett, Daniel, 607, 668–69 deontology, 504, 505, 520 depression, 143, 437, 602–3 childhood adversity and, 196–97 5HTT variant and, 246 Descarte, René, 28 Descartes’ Error (Damasio), 28 despotism, avoidance of, 324 DeVore, Irven, 384, 427, 651 De Waal, Frans, 271, 444, 457, 484–87, 525, 526 diabetes, 379–80 gestational, 359n dichotomizing, 392 see also Us/Them dichotomies Dictator Game, 497, 498 Diallo, Amadou, 86 Diamond, Jared, 302 Diana, Princess of Wales, 401n–2n disgust, 411, 560–65 adolescents and, 160n insular cortex and, 41, 46, 69, 398–99, 454, 560–61 interpersonal, 399 moral, 398, 454, 561–65 political orientation and, 453–55 Us/Them and, 398–99 dishonesty, 512–17 Disney, Walt, 84 DNA, 108, 147, 223, 225–33, 261–62 as blueprint for constructing proteins, 712–14 exons and introns and, 230–31 mutations and polymorphisms and, 714–17 noncoding, 226 Dobzhansky, Theodosius, 328 dog(s), 112 deception in, 513 dog-meat market and, 510, 510 feral Moscow, 378, 379 scenario of saving person vs., 368, 371 doll studies, 415 Donohue, John, 190 dopamine (mesolimbic/mesocortical dopamine system), 30, 64–77, 84, 103, 151, 275, 390, 555–56, 692 in adolescence, 162–64, 163 arbitrary signals and, 391 charitable acts and, 548–50 childhood adversity and, 196 D4 receptor, gene for (DRD4), 256, 258, 260, 261, 279 7R variant, 256, 279–81 empathy and, 534, 545, 546 genes and, 255–58, 264, 279–81, 280 L-DOPA and, 693 DRD4 gene, 256, 258, 260, 261, 279 7R variant of, 256, 279–81 drone pilots, 645–46 drought, 303 drugs, 65, 76, 196 neuropharmacology, 693–94 Drummond, Edward, 586 Dunbar, Robin, 429 Dunbar’s number, 430 Dweck, Carol, 595 Dylan, Bob, 184 Eakin, John, 554 East Asia, 277–78 Eckford, Elizabeth, 640 E. coli, 343, 380 economic games and game theory, 18, 55, 66, 77, 89, 93, 104, 112, 116, 255, 272, 292, 345, 393, 398, 497–500, 609, 610, 624 Dictator Game, 497, 498 hunger and, 92, 449 language effects on, 92–93, 491 Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD), 92, 116, 345–46, 372, 393, 557, 633, 634 public good, 495–96 third-party punishment, 497 Tit for Tat, 346–53, 363, 634, 666 Contrite, 350 Forgiving, 350, 351 Ultimatum Game, 38–39, 106, 486, 497, 498, 500, 610, 635 educational attainment, 263 egalitarian cultures, 291–96 egalitarianism, 167, 180–81 Eichmann, Adolf, 464, 475 Eisenberger, Naomi, 165 Eisenegger, Christoph, 106 Eldredge, Niles, 374–75, 385 Elias, Norbert, 617 Ellsberg, Daniel, 652 El Niños, 302 Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church, 641 Ember, Carol, 319, 321 Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 520 emotional contagion, 522 in animals, 523–26, 569 in children, 527–58 brain and, 22–28 cognition and, 54–58 eyes and, 89, 97 and frontal cortical changes in adolescence, 160 reappraisal and, 60–61, 160, 453 empathy, 3, 4, 15, 18, 46, 169, 454, 521–52, 617 in adolescence, 167–69 affective side of, 528–31, 552 cognitive load and, 534–35, 546 cognitive side of, 528, 531–35, 552 compassionate acts and, 542–45, 551, 614 effectiveness in, 545–46 emotional contagion, 522 in animals, 523–26, 569 in children, 527–28 group loyalty and, 395 mimicry and, 102, 522–24 mirror neurons and supposed role in, 540–41 pain and, 86, 133, 169, 180, 395, 522, 523, 527, 532, 533, 540, 545–47, 550–52, 560, 568 self-interest in, 547–50, 642 stress and, 133 Us/Them and, 532–35 wealthy people and, 533–34 in young children, 179–81 endocrinology, 7 basics of, 707–10 see also hormones Enlightenment, 615, 617 environmental degradation, 302 envy, 15, 67 epilepsy, 605–6, 610, 611 epinephrine, 27, 126 equality, 395 Escherichia coli, 343, 380 estrogen, 117, 118, 144, 158 genes and, 260 prenatal, 211–13 ethology, 10, 81–84 Evans, Robert, 294–95 evolution, 7, 15, 21, 328–86 adaptation in, 380–85 basics of, 328–31 behavior and, 331–32 continuous and gradual, 374–80 evidence for, 329–30 exaptation in, 381, 569 fossil record and, 329, 330, 375, 376 founder populations and, 353–54, 633 genes and, 328–29, 373–74 genotype vs. phenotype in, 360–62 group selection in, 332–33, 426 human, 365–73 individual selection in, 366–68 kin selection in, 368–72, 499 and reciprocal altruism and neo-group selectionism, 372–73 as tournament vs. pair-bonded, 365–66 individual selection in, 333–36, 366–68 intersexual genetic conflict and, 359–60 kin selection in, 336–42, 368–72, 499, 570 cousins and, 339–40 green-beard effect and, 341–42, 353, 390, 409, 633, 637 and recognizing relatedness, 340–41, 570 misconceptions about, 328–29 multilevel selection in, 360–65 natural selection in, 330–31 neo-group selection in, 360, 363–65, 372–73 observed in real time, 379–80 and pair-bonding vs. tournament species, 354–58, 360, 365–66, 383 parent-offspring conflict and, 358–59 punctuated equilibrium in, 374–80, 384–85 reciprocal altruism and, 342–54, 372–73 optimal cooperation strategy and, 345–53 starting cooperation and, 353–54 selection for complexity and, 329 selection for preadaptation and, 329 sexual selection in, 330–31 sociobiology and, 331–33, 374–76, 380–84 spandrels and, 381–82, 382 survival of the fittest and, 328–29 tinkering and improvisation in, 381, 568–69 evolutionary psychology, 331–32 executions, 170–71, 472, 582 firing squads, 471–72 executive function, 48 sustained stress and, 130–31 see also cognition; frontal cortex executive stress syndrome, 436 eyes, social impact of, 89, 97, 623 Facebook, 164, 667 faces, 85–89, 129, 275 amygdala and, 85, 89, 388, 395, 408–9, 416, 418 beauty in, and confusion with goodness, 88, 443 disgust and, 411 dominant, 432, 433 eyes, social impact of, 89, 97, 623 fear and, 85, 395, 411 fusiform response to, 80, 85–86, 88, 114, 122n, 388, 402 gender of, 88 infants and, 391–92 race of, 85–87, 89, 391–92, 398, 408–9, 418–19, 614, 628–29 testosterone and, 102, 104 voting and, 442–44 FADS2 gene, 246 Fail-Safe (Burdick and Wheeler), 349n–50n Fairbanks, Lynn, 337 fairness and justice, 323–24, 449, 450 children’s sense of, 181, 483–84 see also morality and moral decisions Farah, Martha, 195 fascism, 202, 308, 401 fear: aggression and, 44 amygdala and, 34, 36–40, 42, 44, 85, 87–90, 97, 129 faces and, 85, 395, 411 innate vs. learned, 36 pheromones and, 90 sustained stress and, 128–30 Fehr, Ernst, 55, 106, 517 Felt, W.


pages: 598 words: 140,612

Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, and Happier by Edward L. Glaeser

affirmative action, Andrei Shleifer, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Broken windows theory, carbon footprint, Celebration, Florida, clean water, congestion charging, declining real wages, desegregation, different worldview, diversified portfolio, Edward Glaeser, endowment effect, European colonialism, financial innovation, Frank Gehry, global village, Guggenheim Bilbao, haute cuisine, Home mortgage interest deduction, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, job-hopping, John Snow's cholera map, Mahatma Gandhi, McMansion, megacity, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, New Urbanism, place-making, Ponzi scheme, Potemkin village, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rent control, RFID, Richard Florida, Rosa Parks, school vouchers, Seaside, Florida, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, Steven Pinker, strikebreaker, Thales and the olive presses, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the new new thing, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, William Shockley: the traitorous eight, Works Progress Administration, young professional

In 1973, Nelson Rockefeller, once considered the liberal hope of the Republican Party, signed the Rockefeller drug laws, which mandated a prison sentence of fifteen years to life for anyone possessing four ounces or more of any illegal drug. In the mayoral election of 1977, Ed Koch distinguished himself from his rivals by supporting the death penalty. Koch started a trend, and his successors, including Rudy Giuliani, embraced the “broken windows” theory of policing, which calls for strong penalties for even minor infractions, such as jumping subway turnstiles to avoid paying the fare. Harsher penalties naturally appealed to citizens of a city where criminals seemed to be in control. Between 1980 and 2000, the number of inmates in the U.S. criminal system—in prison, in jail, on probation, or on parole—increased from 1.8 million to 6.4 million.


City: A Guidebook for the Urban Age by P. D. Smith

active transport: walking or cycling, Albert Einstein, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, business cycle, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, congestion charging, cosmological principle, crack epidemic, double entry bookkeeping, edge city, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, en.wikipedia.org, Enrique Peñalosa, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Frank Gehry, garden city movement, global village, haute cuisine, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of gunpowder, Jane Jacobs, John Snow's cholera map, Kevin Kelly, Kibera, Kickstarter, Kowloon Walled City, Masdar, megacity, megastructure, multicultural london english, mutually assured destruction, New Urbanism, Norman Mailer, peak oil, RFID, smart cities, starchitect, telepresence, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, Thomas Malthus, trade route, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, Victor Gruen, walkable city, white flight, white picket fence, young professional

Films like Death Wish (1974) suggested that vigilante violence was the way to solve the problem of urban crime; either that or the brutal police methods of Harry Callahan (Dirty Harry, 1971). The fear of crime has become a major political issue around the world and, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom, it is often presented as an urban issue. The most influential (and controversial) recent attempt to solve crime in urban areas was the so-called ‘broken windows’ theory. It was proposed by social scientists George L. Kelling and James Q. Wilson in 1982. They argued that relatively minor offences reinforce the impression of neglect in an area and represent the beginning of a slippery slope leading to serious criminality: ‘one unrepaired broken window is a signal that no one cares, and so breaking more windows costs nothing’. Their warning that a stable neighbourhood could soon turn into a ‘frightening jungle’ struck fear into the heart of middle-class America.52 When Rudolph Giuliani was elected Mayor of New York in 1993, he and his police chief William J.


pages: 505 words: 127,542

If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Happy? by Raj Raghunathan

Broken windows theory, business process, cognitive dissonance, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, fundamental attribution error, hedonic treadmill, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, market clearing, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, Phillip Zimbardo, placebo effect, science of happiness, Skype, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thorstein Veblen, Tony Hsieh, working poor, zero-sum game, Zipcar

aren’t necessarily set in stone: The idea that people’s propensities aren’t set in stone is perhaps one of the more fundamental tenets of social psychology, with researchers believing that the “context” is a more powerful determinant of people’s attitudes and behaviors. This belief is rooted in a number of findings, including the famous “obedience” studies conducted by Stanley Milgram in the 1960s, in which he showed that regular people like you and me, under the guise of helping others learn a task (e.g., word associations), could be persuaded to administer severe shocks to them. The so-called broken window theory, which has its basis on a set of studies conducted by Phillip Zimbardo, too, is testament to the idea that people’s propensities are not set in stone. S. Milgram, “Behavioral Study of Obedience,” The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 67(4) (1963): 371–78; for a review of Zimbardo’s famous studies, see P. Zimbardo, The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil (New York: Random House, 2007).


pages: 499 words: 144,278

Coders: The Making of a New Tribe and the Remaking of the World by Clive Thompson

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 4chan, 8-hour work day, Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Asperger Syndrome, augmented reality, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, blue-collar work, Brewster Kahle, Brian Krebs, Broken windows theory, call centre, cellular automata, Chelsea Manning, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, computer vision, Conway's Game of Life, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Danny Hillis, David Heinemeier Hansson, don't be evil, don't repeat yourself, Donald Trump, dumpster diving, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ernest Rutherford, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Firefox, Frederick Winslow Taylor, game design, glass ceiling, Golden Gate Park, Google Hangouts, Google X / Alphabet X, Grace Hopper, Guido van Rossum, Hacker Ethic, HyperCard, illegal immigration, ImageNet competition, Internet Archive, Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, John Markoff, Jony Ive, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, Larry Wall, lone genius, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Shuttleworth, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, microservices, Minecraft, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, Network effects, neurotypical, Nicholas Carr, Oculus Rift, PageRank, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, paypal mafia, Peter Thiel, pink-collar, planetary scale, profit motive, ransomware, recommendation engine, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rubik’s Cube, Ruby on Rails, Sam Altman, Satoshi Nakamoto, Saturday Night Live, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, single-payer health, Skype, smart contracts, Snapchat, social software, software is eating the world, sorting algorithm, South of Market, San Francisco, speech recognition, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, TaskRabbit, the High Line, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, urban planning, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, Y Combinator, Zimmermann PGP, éminence grise

He lectures other programmers on the importance of working manically, constantly striving to improve things. “I tell people, you always take pride in your code. You should always be refactoring it, it should look like you’ve been working on it, when people see it,” he said. A single flabbily written function would convey something other than total commitment to the craft. “I’m a firm believer in the broken-windows theory. You find a bug, you hunt it down and kill it.” Indeed, when Cohen was working hard, he hated anything that took him out of the flow, even eating. While making himself a sandwich in his kitchen, back when I visited him for Wired, he complained that it was taking too long. “Sometimes I wish there were just some way to install energy in your body, like the Terminator putting a battery in his chest,” he said.


pages: 918 words: 257,605

The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by Shoshana Zuboff

Amazon Web Services, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, blue-collar work, book scanning, Broken windows theory, California gold rush, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, citizen journalism, cloud computing, collective bargaining, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, corporate personhood, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, dogs of the Dow, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, facts on the ground, Ford paid five dollars a day, future of work, game design, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, hive mind, impulse control, income inequality, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Jean Tirole, job automation, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, linked data, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, means of production, multi-sided market, Naomi Klein, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Occupy movement, off grid, PageRank, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, pattern recognition, Paul Buchheit, performance metric, Philip Mirowski, precision agriculture, price mechanism, profit maximization, profit motive, recommendation engine, refrigerator car, RFID, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Bork, Robert Mercer, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, slashdot, smart cities, Snapchat, social graph, social web, software as a service, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, structural adjustment programs, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, two-sided market, union organizing, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, winner-take-all economy, Wolfgang Streeck

Shish Shridhar, “We Don’t Need Yet Another App, Conversations Are the New App,” Microsoft Developer Blogs—the ShiSh List, May 21, 2016, https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/shishirs/2016/05/21/we-dont-need-yet-another-app-conversations-are-the-new-app. 114. Terry Myerson, “Hello World: Windows 10 Available on July 29,” Windows Experience Blog, June 1, 2015, https://blogs.windows.com/windowsexperience/2015/06/01/hello-world-windows-10-available-on-july-29. 115. David Auerbach, “Broken Windows Theory,” Slate, August 3, 2015, http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/bitwise/2015/08/windows_10_privacy_problems_here_s_how_bad_they_are_and_how_to_plug_them.html. 116. Peter Bright, “Even When Told Not to, Windows 10 Just Can’t Stop Talking to Microsoft,” Ars Technica, August 13, 2015, https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2015/08/even-when-told-not-to-windows-10-just-cant-stop-talking-to-microsoft. 117.