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Fly by Wire: The Geese, the Glide, the Miracle on the Hudson by William Langewiesche
Air France Flight 447, Airbus A320, airline deregulation, Bernard Ziegler, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Charles Lindbergh, crew resource management, New Journalism, two and twenty, US Airways Flight 1549, William Langewiesche
They knew that the airplane’s flight-control computers had performed remarkably well, seamlessly integrating themselves into Sullenberger’s solutions and intervening assertively at the very end to guarantee a survivable touchdown. The test pilots believed that the airplane’s functioning was a vindication of its visionary design. But they were not going to bring it up. They were going to get through this hearing and be done. Their front man said, “Good morning, Captain Sullenberger, but all of our questions have been answered by Captain Sullenberger, the technical panel, and the other party members. Thank you, sir.” Sullenberger said, “Thank you.” The engine manufacturer had no questions.
Forty-five seconds had passed since the airplane’s liftoff. Skiles called for a flap retraction from position two to position one. Sullenberger said, “Flaps one.” They flew in silence for twenty seconds. It was a beautiful day. The Hudson River stretched upstream, below and to the left, on the far side of the Bronx. Looking outside, Sullenberger said, “What a view of the Hudson today.” “Yeah.” But Skiles was all business. He said, “Flaps up, please. [Do the] after-takeoff checklist.” Sullenberger said, “Flaps up.” The checklist was short. He said, “After-takeoff checklist complete.” They had been airborne for a minute and a half.
The Frenchman probed no further. He said, “Thank you, Captain.” Dr. Wilson echoed his gratitude. She said, “Thank you, Captain Sullenberger.” To Robert Sumwalt, she said, “Mr. Chairman, we have no more questions at this time.” It was the turn now for the officially designated parties to ask their own questions. A woman from the flight attendants’ union led off. She suggested to Sullenberger that rather than announcing, “Brace for impact,” as he had over the cabin address system, he should have announced, “Brace for water impact.” Sullenberger easily batted this aside. She then led him through a series of questions pertaining to the fact that only two of the four life rafts in the airplane had been usable, and that even if they had been loaded to their maximum capacity, forty-five people would have been unaccommodated.
The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right by Atul Gawande
Airbus A320, Atul Gawande, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, index card, John Snow's cholera map, megacity, RAND corporation, Tenerife airport disaster, US Airways Flight 1549, William Langewiesche
As it happened, the very next day, US Airways Flight 1549 took off from La Guardia Airport in New York City with 155 people on board, struck a large flock of Canadian geese over Manhattan, lost both engines, and famously crash-landed in the icy Hudson River. The fact that not a single life was lost led the press to christen the incident the “miracle on the Hudson.” A National Transportation Safety Board official said the flight “has to go down as the most successful ditching in aviation history.” Fifty-seven-year-old Captain Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger III, a former air force pilot with twenty thousand hours of flight experience, was hailed the world over. “Quiet Air Hero Is Captain America,” shouted the New York Post headline. ABC News called him the “Hudson River hero.” The German papers hailed “Der Held von New York,” the French “Le Nouveau Héros de l’Amérique,” the Spanish-language press “El Héroe de Nueva York.”
Zaslow, Highest Duty: My Search for What Really Matters (New York: William Morrow, 2009). 179 “Skiles managed to complete”: Testimony of Captain Terry Lutz, Experimental Test pilot, Engineering Flight Operations, Airbus, National Transportation Safety Board, “Public Hearing in the Matter of the Landing of US Air Flight 1549 in the Hudson River, Weehawken, New Jersey, January 15, 2009,” June 10, 2009. 180 “ ‘Flaps out?’ ”: D. P. Brazy, “Group Chairman’s Factual Report of Investigation: Cockpit Voice Recorder DCA09MA026,” National Transportation Safety Board, April 22, 2009. 180 “For, as journalist and pilot”: W. Langewiesche, “Anatomy of a Miracle,” Vanity Fair, June 2009. 181 “After the plane landed”: Testimony of Captain Chesley Sullenberger, A320 Captain, US Airways, National Transportation Safety Board, Public Hearing, June 9, 2009.
Olshan and I. Livingston, “Quiet Air Hero Is Captain America,” New York Post, Jan. 17, 2009. 174 “As Sullenberger kept saying”: M. Phillips, “Sully, Flight 1549 Crew Receive Keys to New York City,” The Middle Seat, blog, Wall Street Journal, Feb. 9, 2009, http://blogs.wsj.com/middleseat/2009/02/09/. 174 “ ‘That was so long ago’ ”: “Sully’s Tale,” Air & Space, Feb. 18, 2009. 178 “Once that happened”: C. Sullenberger and J. Zaslow, Highest Duty: My Search for What Really Matters (New York: William Morrow, 2009). 179 “Skiles managed to complete”: Testimony of Captain Terry Lutz, Experimental Test pilot, Engineering Flight Operations, Airbus, National Transportation Safety Board, “Public Hearing in the Matter of the Landing of US Air Flight 1549 in the Hudson River, Weehawken, New Jersey, January 15, 2009,” June 10, 2009. 180 “ ‘Flaps out?’
Future Perfect: The Case for Progress in a Networked Age by Steven Johnson
Airbus A320, airport security, algorithmic trading, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Cass Sunstein, Charles Lindbergh, cognitive dissonance, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, dark matter, Dava Sobel, David Brooks, Donald Davies, future of journalism, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, HyperCard, Jane Jacobs, John Gruber, John Harrison: Longitude, Joi Ito, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, lone genius, Mark Zuckerberg, mega-rich, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, Nate Silver, Occupy movement, packet switching, peer-to-peer, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, pre–internet, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social graph, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Tim Cook: Apple, urban planning, US Airways Flight 1549, WikiLeaks, William Langewiesche, working poor, X Prize, Yochai Benkler, your tax dollars at work
The mass media quickly offered up two primary explanations, both of which turned out to be typical interpretations of good news. First there was the hero narrative: Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, who had indeed brilliantly navigated his plane into the river with great poise under unthinkable pressure. And then there was the quasi-magical rhetoric that quickly became attached to the event, the Miracle on the Hudson. Those were the two options. That plane floating safely in the Hudson could be explained only by superheroes or miracles. There was no denying Sullenberger’s achievement that day, but the fact is, he was supported by a long history of decisions made by thousands of people over the preceding decades, all of which set up the conditions that made that perfect landing possible.
Inspired by the NASA model, engineers at Airbus in the early 1980s built an exceptionally innovative fly-by-wire system into the Airbus A320, which began flying in 1987. Twenty-one years later, Chesley Sullenberger was at the controls of an A320 when he collided with that flock of Canada geese. Because his left engine was still able to keep the electronics running, his courageous descent into the Hudson was deftly assisted by a silent partner, a computer embodied with the collective intelligence of years of research and planning. William Langewiesche describes that digital aid in his riveting account of the flight, Fly by Wire: While in the initial left turn [Sullenberger] lowered the nose . . . and went to the best gliding speed—a value which the airplane calculated all by itself, and presented to him as a green dot on the speed scale of his primary flight display.
Most non-pilots think of modern planes as possessing two primary modes: “autopilot,” during which the computers are effectively flying the plane, and “manual,” during which humans are in charge. But fly-by-wire is a more subtle innovation. Sullenberger was in command of the aircraft as he steered it toward the Hudson, but the fly-by-wire system was silently working alongside him throughout, setting the boundaries or optimal targets for his actions. That extraordinary landing was a kind of duet between a single human being at the helm of the aircraft and the embedded knowledge of the thousands of human beings that had collaborated over the years to build the Airbus A320’s fly-by-wire technology. It is an open question whether Sullenberger would have been able to land the plane safely without all that additional knowledge at his service.
Speed by Bob Gilliland, Keith Dunnavant
Crossfield died on impact. And the so-called Miracle on the Hudson was still fresh in the minds of all. Just fifteen months before the famous aviators took flight, the U.S. Airways A320 that struck a flock of Canadian geese immediately after takeoff from LaGuardia Airport served as a reminder of all the little things that could go wrong—and, ultimately, offered a powerful object lesson about how one skilled and quick-thinking pilot could avert disaster. By carefully guiding the fast-sinking jetliner onto the Hudson River, Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger saved the lives of 155 passengers and crew. In the otherwise comparatively monotonous life of an airline pilot, the decision to try to land or divert during dangerous weather always looms large, and this particular situation was embroidered with an additional level of pressure.
The founder of Solovox Publishing, Dunnavant has also been an award-winning writer and newsroom executive for The National, Adweek, Atlanta, and BusinessWeek and a featured historian on ESPN, CBS, HBO, Showtime, Epix, and SEC Network. About Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger is a retired U.S. Air Force fighter pilot and airline captain who became world famous after the so-called Miracle on the Hudson. He is the coauthor of the New York Times best seller Highest Duty: My Search for What Really Matters. 1. Frank Gilliland Sr. was a hero in World War I but rarely talked about his service. Courtesy of Gilliland family. 2.
Bob with Andrew Green, Eric Brown, and Neil Armstrong Foreword Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger Over the last century, thanks to the work of some very dedicated and gifted professionals who learned to harness the wonders of science, air travel has evolved from risky to routine. Most of the passengers who regularly cruise from city to city at 600 miles per hour, six miles above the earth, do so with a confidence approaching certitude. After all, flying in an airliner is now much safer than other forms of transportation. Of course, sometimes things go wrong. On January 15, 2009, when I was sitting in the captain’s seat of an Airbus A320 climbing away from New York’s LaGuardia Airport, multiple bird strikes caused the loss of both engines.
The Crash Detectives: Investigating the World's Most Mysterious Air Disasters by Christine Negroni
Air France Flight 447, Airbus A320, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Charles Lindbergh, Checklist Manifesto, computer age, crew resource management, crowdsourcing, low cost airline, low cost carrier, Richard Feynman, South China Sea, Tenerife airport disaster, Thomas Bayes, US Airways Flight 1549
“I wanted enough altitude so we could glide back to Changi,” he reasoned. Nine months earlier, Captain Sullenberger found himself in a similar situation with even less altitude. He was at three thousand feet following takeoff from New York’s LaGuardia Airport when geese flew into the engines, knocking them out. The A320 began a one-thousand-feet-per-minute descent. In his book Highest Duty, Sullenberger said he and Skiles knew in less than a minute that they were not going to get to any of the nearby airports. “We were too low, too slow, too far away and pointed in the wrong direction,” he wrote. The Hudson River was “long enough, wide enough and on that day, smooth enough to land a jetliner.”
After all, it was an ordinary flight—under the command of an experienced and well-regarded captain—that suddenly turned baffling. The Boeing 777 departed Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 8, 2014, on an overnight trip to Beijing. There were 227 passengers and 12 crew members on board. In the cockpit, Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah, a thirty-three-year employee of the company, was in command. He had eighteen thousand flight hours. As a point of reference, that’s just fifteen hundred hours fewer than Chesley Sullenberger had in his logbook when he successfully ditched a disabled US Airways airliner into New York’s Hudson River, and Zaharie was five years younger than Sully.
“Thank God,” Norhisham said when Flight 124 landed safely with no injuries, though everyone on board the airplane was shaken. Only then did Norhisham stop and think about the “very thin margin of survival.” He had joined a fraternity of pilots who had knowingly broken the last link in the chain to calamity. Three and a half years later, Chesley Sullenberger and Jeff Skiles ditched an Airbus A320 in New York’s Hudson River after geese flew into the engines following takeoff from LaGuardia Airport. In September 2010, Andrei Lamanov and Yevgeny Novoselov landed on an abandoned runway in northwestern Russia that was half as long as their aircraft required. A total power failure on a the Tupelov TU-154 caused all the fuel pumps to fail, starving the engines and leading to the loss of all navigation and radio equipment on what should have been a five-hour flight to Moscow.
Black Box Thinking: Why Most People Never Learn From Their Mistakes--But Some Do by Matthew Syed
Airbus A320, Alfred Russel Wallace, Arthur Eddington, Atul Gawande, Black Swan, British Empire, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, crew resource management, deliberate practice, double helix, epigenetics, fear of failure, fundamental attribution error, Henri Poincaré, hindsight bias, Isaac Newton, iterative process, James Dyson, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Johannes Kepler, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, mandatory minimum, meta-analysis, minimum viable product, publication bias, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, selection bias, Shai Danziger, Silicon Valley, six sigma, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, Toyota Production System, US Airways Flight 1549, Wall-E, Yom Kippur War
It was dropping too fast. At 3:29 p.m. Sullenberger uttered the words that would create headlines around the world: “We’re going to be in the Hudson.” • • • In the opening part of this book we have focused on failure in two safety-critical areas: aviation and health care. We have looked at responses, attitudes, and investigations into failure. Now we will have a brief look at success, and our responses to that. By shining a light on how we get things right we will discover a little more about why we get things wrong. Sullenberger ultimately landed the plane, all 70 tons of it, on the Hudson River. It was a brilliantly judged maneuver.
But aviation experts took a different view. They glimpsed a bigger picture. They cited not just Sullenberger’s individual brilliance but also the system in which he operates. Some made reference to Crew Resource Management. The division of responsibilities between Sullenberger and Skiles occurred seamlessly. Seconds after the bird strike, Sullenberger took control of the aircraft while Skiles checked the quick-reference handbook. Channels of communication were open until the very last seconds of the flight. Skiles called out airspeeds and altitudes to provide his captain as much situational awareness as possible as the aircraft dropped.
Anderton, two outstanding doctors, in an operating theater near North Marston more than twenty-five years later. The irony is that Sullenberger, feted by presidents, might have made precisely the same mistake under those circumstances. The fact that he didn’t, and emerged a hero, was for a simple but profound reason: the industry in which he operates had learned the lessons. It is both apt and revealing that Sullenberger, a modest and self-evidently decent man, has made exactly this point. In a television interview months after the miracle landing on the Hudson, he offered this beautiful gem of wisdom: Everything we know in aviation, every rule in the rule book, every procedure we have, we know because someone somewhere died . . .
Cockpit Confidential: Everything You Need to Know About Air Travel: Questions, Answers, and Reflections by Patrick Smith
Airbus A320, airline deregulation, airport security, Atul Gawande, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, collective bargaining, inflight wifi, low cost airline, low cost carrier, Maui Hawaii, Mercator projection, New Urbanism, pattern recognition, race to the bottom, Skype, Tenerife airport disaster, US Airways Flight 1549, zero-sum game
The severity of a maneuver, whether perceived or actual, is not always a crewmember’s whim or lack of finesse. What are your thoughts on the alleged heroics of Captain “Sully” Sullenberger and the so-called Miracle on the Hudson? Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger was the US Airways captain who guided his suddenly engineless Airbus into the Hudson River on January 15, 2009, after striking a flock of Canada geese. Together with the majority of my colleagues, I have the utmost respect for Captain Sullenberger. But that’s just it: respect. It’s not adoration or a false, media-fattened misunderstanding of what he and his crew faced that day.
As it happened, it was daylight and the weather was reasonably good; there off Sullenberger’s left side was a 12-mile runway of smoothly flowing river, within swimming distance of the country’s largest city and its flotilla of rescue craft. Had the bird-strike occurred over a different part of the city, at a lower altitude (beyond gliding distance to the Hudson), or under more inclement weather conditions, the result was going to be an all-out catastrophe, and no amount of talent or skill was going to matter. Sullenberger, to his credit, has been duly humble, acknowledging the points I make above.
Any time a pilot changes airlines, he starts over at the bottom of the list, at probationary pay and benefits, regardless of experience. The long, slow climb begins again. This is industry standard, and there are no exceptions—not for Chesley Sullenberger, not for a former NASA astronaut, not for anybody. When the pilots of Eastern, Braniff, Pan Am, and a hundred other belly-up carriers suddenly found themselves on the street, their choice was an ugly one: start over as a rookie, as it were, or find another career. If business is bad and airlines are contracting, seniority moves in reverse: captains become first officers; and junior first officers become cab drivers. In the rickety profit/loss roller coaster that is the airline industry, layoffs—furloughs, as we call them—come and go in waves, displacing thousands at a time.
The Eureka Factor by John Kounios
active measures, Albert Einstein, Bluma Zeigarnik, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, Everything should be made as simple as possible, Flynn Effect, functional fixedness, Google Hangouts, impulse control, invention of the telephone, invention of the telescope, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, meta-analysis, Necker cube, pattern recognition, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, theory of mind, US Airways Flight 1549, Wall-E, William of Occam
And I needed to touch down just above our minimum flying speed but not below it. And I needed to make all these things happen simultaneously.” Three and a half minutes after the bird strike, flight 1549, with its complement of 155 passengers and crew members, landed safely in the Hudson River. All were saved. Why did Captain Sullenberger succeed where virtually all pilots had previously failed? Sullenberger learned to fly at sixteen. When he enrolled in the U.S. Air Force Academy, he received glider training and became an instructor pilot. In the air force, he spent five years as a fighter pilot, where he became a flight leader, a training officer, and a member of the aircraft accident investigation board.
The quick wits of experts can even save lives. On January 15, 2009, US Airways flight 1549 took off from New York’s LaGuardia Airport bound for Charlotte, North Carolina. While ascending, the plane struck a flock of birds. Captain Chesley (“Sully”) Sullenberger smelled burning—birds had been sucked into the engines. Then the engines went dead. Within thirty seconds, Captain Sullenberger concluded that the engines couldn’t be restarted. The plane’s altitude was three thousand feet and decreasing rapidly. He communicated the situation to the air traffic control tower and looked for a place to land. Decades of training and experience were brought to bear in an instant: “I quickly determined that due to our distance from LaGuardia and the distance and altitude required to make the turn back to LaGuardia, it would be problematic reaching the runway, and trying to make a runway I couldn’t quite make could well be catastrophic to everyone on board, and persons on the ground.
Regarding Bent Larsen’s approach to playing chess, see query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9403E0DD1638F931A2575AC0A9669D8B63. Quick Think 1 The information about, and quotes from, Captain Chesley Sullenberger are derived from www.airspacemag.com/flight-today/Sullys-Tale.html/; www.cbsnews.com/news/flight-1549-a-routine-takeoff-turns-ugly/; and Wikipedia, s.v. “Chesley Sullenberger,” last modified June 26, 2014, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sullenberger. CHAPTER 4: ALL OF A SUDDEN … * * * 1 The idea that creativity does not differ from “ordinary” thought is discussed in R. W. Weisberg, Creativity: Understanding Innovation in Problem Solving, Science, Invention, and the Arts (Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley and Sons, 2006). 2 The anagram study by R.
Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World by General Stanley McChrystal, Tantum Collins, David Silverman, Chris Fussell
Airbus A320, Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, autonomous vehicles, bank run, barriers to entry, Black Swan, butterfly effect, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Chelsea Manning, clockwork universe, crew resource management, crowdsourcing, Edward Snowden, Flash crash, Frederick Winslow Taylor, global supply chain, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, Ida Tarbell, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, job automation, job satisfaction, John Nash: game theory, knowledge economy, Mark Zuckerberg, Mohammed Bouazizi, Nate Silver, Pierre-Simon Laplace, RAND corporation, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, urban sprawl, US Airways Flight 1549, WikiLeaks, zero-sum game
The lack of fuel meant there was no fire and the houses the plane struck happened to be empty, but eight passengers, a flight attendant, and the flight engineer were killed; twenty-four people suffered serious injuries. • • • Compare the tragedy of United Flight 173 to the story of US Airways Flight 1549—the plane that Captain Chesley Sullenberger ditched in the Hudson River in 2009. Shortly after the flight took off from LaGuardia Airport, a flock of Canada geese in the midst of their annual migration flew into both engines, causing immediate engine failure. Barely two thousand feet above the ground, the crew had only moments to respond. All emergency checklists and technical training designed to confront engine failures were premised on the assumption that such failure would transpire at cruising altitude above twenty thousand feet—an incapacitating event so low was unprecedented.
• • • The accident report deconstructing the success of Flight 1549 noted that Sullenberger’s crew’s technical training had been completely irrelevant to the solution they achieved. No procedure for low-altitude dual-engine failure existed anywhere in the industry. It was their interactive adaptability, the report found, that proved crucial: Because of time constraints, they could not discuss every part of the decision process; therefore, they had to listen to and observe each other . . . [the captain] and the first officer had to work almost intuitively in a close-knit fashion. The report concluded, “The captain credited US Airways CRM training for providing him and the first officer with the skills and tools that they needed to build a team quickly and open lines of communication, share common goals, and work together.”
But for groups like the SEALs, the oneness imbued by trust and purpose is a prerequisite to deployment. Entering the battlefield as a group of individuals without those characteristics would be like walking into a firefight without wearing body armor. The SEAL team in Abbottabad had not planned for the helicopter crash, just as Captain Sullenberger’s crew had not planned for the bird strike, and the Carty-Caterson team had not planned for the marathon bombing, but all were capable of adjusting to the unexpected with creative solutions on the spot, coherently and as a group. Their structure—not their plan—was their strategy. EMERGENT INTELLIGENCE In his book Emergence, Steven Johnson debunks “the myth of the ant queen.”
When to Rob a Bank: ...And 131 More Warped Suggestions and Well-Intended Rants by Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbus A320, airport security, augmented reality, barriers to entry, Bear Stearns, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, feminist movement, food miles, George Akerlof, global pandemic, information asymmetry, invisible hand, loss aversion, mental accounting, Netflix Prize, obamacare, oil shale / tar sands, Pareto efficiency, peak oil, pre–internet, price anchoring, price discrimination, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, Richard Thaler, Sam Peltzman, security theater, Ted Kaczynski, the built environment, The Chicago School, the High Line, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, US Airways Flight 1549
But I have to admit there is something particularly creative about affixing a value to time itself, especially if you can capture that value for your own benefit. Maybe I will write more about that tomorrow™. What Captain Sullenberger Meant to Say (But Was Too Polite to Do So) (BY “CAPTAIN STEVE”) Captain Steve is a seasoned international pilot for a major U.S. carrier and a friend of Freakonomics. (Given the sensitivity of what he writes, he prefers anonymity.) This post was published on June 24, 2009, six months after the “The Miracle on the Hudson,” in which Captain Chesley Sullenberger safely landed an Airbus A320-200 in the Hudson River. Both the plane’s engines had failed, due to a bird strike, shortly after takeoff from LaGuardia Airport in New York.
Both the plane’s engines had failed, due to a bird strike, shortly after takeoff from LaGuardia Airport in New York. After reading some of the excerpts of Captain Sullenberger’s various speeches, especially those of a few weeks ago with the National Transportation Safety Board, I would like to add my editorial. Captain Sullenberger has been a class act all the way. He’s not been petty, pious, or egotistical. He is, however, like most of the captains I know and, more broadly, most of the pilots I know. Why? He doesn’t need to be otherwise. When someone has accomplished what he and the scores of men and women like him have accomplished, why do we need to boast? He implies that what he did while serving as the “skipper” of US Airways flight 1549 was simply his job.
., 12 Rubinstein, Yona, 9–10 rugby, blood injuries in, 148–49 Sadoff, Sally, 338 Saffer, Henry, 116 Sandusky, Jerry, 121 satisfaction, 122–23 scientific ideas, legitimacy of, 123 security overkill, 106–7 security screening, 108–9 self-consciousness, 123–24 self-reporting, 137–40 INS Form N-400, 237–38 Seltzer, Margaret, 146 Sen, Amartya, 336–37 September 11 attacks, 212–13, 252 sex: casual, 261 high-end call girl, 261–67 more, 259–61 prostitution, 255–56, 265–67 tax on, 256–59 Sexton, Alison and Steve, 184–85 shark attacks, 113 Shin-Yi Chou, 116 shrimp, 341–44 Siberry, Jane, 69–71 Silvertooth, Eugene “Chip,” 47 Simmons, Matthew, 114–16 Simon, Julian, 114 60 Minutes, 61–62 skin color, in the marketplace, 319–22 Smith, Adam, 315 Smith, Noah, 26–27 soccer, 209, 211, 212, 256 Somali pirates, 314–19 songs, prices of, 69–71 specialization, efficiency of, 172 sports: autographed baseballs, 80–81 betting on teams, 125–26 bowling, 204–6 cheating in, 148–50 doping, 151–52, 153 football, 206–9, 212–19, 239–41 golf, 198–204 home field advantage, 209–12 horseback riding, 101–3 horse racing, 191, 220–22 loss aversion, 206–9 players carrying concealed weapons, 240–41 soccer, 209, 211, 212, 256 steroids, 152–53 taxes on athletes’ incomes, 72–74 statistics: and medicine, 280–82 misinterpretation of, 345 Stein, Luke, 320–22 Steinem, Gloria, 51 Stenger, Victor, 286 steroids, 152–53 Stevenson, Betsey, 344–47 Stewart, Jon, 273–74 Stewart, M. R., 38–39 stock markets, capitalization of, 67 strangers, fear of, 130–33 street gangs, 229–36, 246–47, 248–49 street handouts, 328–37 Stubbs, Bob, 46 subjectivity, 170 Sullenberger, Chesley “Sully,” 82–83 SuperFreakonomics (Levitt & Dubner), 54, 101, 105, 119, 121, 261 supply and demand, 78–80, 110, 112, 115, 128, 341–44 Swift, Jonathan, 258–59 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 329, 334–37 tax code, 159–60 taxes: on athletes’ incomes, 72–74 cheating on, 158–60 on sex, 256–59 war on, 11–14 Taylor, Brian, 253 Taylor, Sean, 241 teachers, cheating by, 103–4, 160–61 Tejada, Miguel, 149 tenure, 16–19 Terrible Towel, 215 terrorism, 5–11, 108–9, 252 Thaler, Richard, 68, 308–9 Think Like a Freak (Levitt & Dubner), 26, 27 350.org, 178–84 ticketless travel, 141 Tierney, John, 114–16 Tinker, David, 40 tipping, and flight attendants, 19–20 Tomlin, Mike, 218 tooth decay, 275–76 Tour de France, 151–52 Travolta, John, 306 Tropicana, 174–75 TSA, 5–6, 11, 108–9, 251–53 Tversky, Amos, 206 TV viewing habits, 322–24 Twitter contest, 94–96 umbrellas, dangers of, 108–9 United States, six-word motto for, 96–99 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA), 129–30 US Airways flight 1549, 82–83 Veblen, Thorstein, 184 veganism, 179–84 Velde, François, 62 Venkatesh, Sudhir, 229–36, 246–47 Vermeil, Dick, 207–8 Virgin Mobile, 63–64 voting mechanisms, 29–31 wages: and markets, 24, 25 of politicians, 32–36 and quality of applicants, 34 walking drunk, 101 Wayne (middle name), 38–40 Weber, Christopher L., 171, 172 Weller, Mark, 62–63 Werner, James, 40 Wertheim, Jon, 209–12 Weyl, Glen, 30–31 White, Byron “Whizzer,” 214 Williams, Tom, 148–49 Wilson, A.N., 282 Winfrey, Oprah, 51 Wire, The, 229–33 Witt, Robert, 225–26 Wolf, Cyril, 51–53 Wolfers, Justin, 344–47 women: feminist movement, 346–47 and happiness, 344–47 work: incentives in, 339–40 leisure vs., 168 World Preservation Foundation, 179–82, 192–95 World Series of Poker, 187–88, 192–95 Worthy, Paige, 44–45 Zelinsky, Aaron, 152–53 About the Authors STEVEN D.
The Digital Doctor: Hope, Hype, and Harm at the Dawn of Medicine’s Computer Age by Robert Wachter
"Robert Solow", activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AI winter, Airbnb, Atul Gawande, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, computer age, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, deskilling, disruptive innovation, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Firefox, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Google Glasses, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, Internet of things, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, lifelogging, medical malpractice, medical residency, Menlo Park, minimum viable product, natural language processing, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, personalized medicine, pets.com, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, Skype, Snapchat, software as a service, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, The future is already here, the payments system, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Toyota Production System, Uber for X, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Yogi Berra
He shows us that it’s not just the technology but how we manage it that will determine whether the computerization of medicine will be for good or for ill. And he reminds us that the promise of technology in healthcare will be realized only if it augments, but does not replace, the human touch.” —Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger speaker; consultant; author of Highest Duty and Making a Difference; pilot of US Airways 1549, the “Miracle on the Hudson” “With vivid stories and sharp analysis, Wachter exposes the good, the bad, and the ugly of electronic health records and all things electronic in the complex settings of hospitals, physician offices, and pharmacies. Everyone will learn from Wachter’s intelligent assessment and become a believer that, despite today’s glitches and frustrations, the future computer age will make medicine much better for us all.”
She thought for a moment and then said, “If the alarms went silent. That would be scary.” Medicine, of course, is not the only industry in which professionals need to perform their tasks in a swirling, often confusing, high-stakes environment, nor the only one that has to grapple with the matter of computerized alerts. I spoke to Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, the famed “Miracle on the Hudson” pilot, about how aviation handles the matter of alerts. “The warnings in cockpits now are prioritized so you don’t get alarm fatigue,” he told me. “We work very hard to avoid false positives because false positives are one of the worst things you could do to any warning system.
., “Mortality and Morbidity in Patients Receiving Encainide, Flecainide, or Placebo: The Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial,” New England Journal of Medicine 324:781–788 (1991). 146 “Based on what I can extract from the data” Interview of Shahram Ebadollahi by the author, August 18, 2014. 146 “Missing a real event is much more costly” Quoted in L. Kowalczyk, “Patient Alarms Often Unheard.” 147 I spoke to Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger Interview of Sullenberger by the author, May 12, 2014. 147 So I spent a day in Seattle with several of the Boeing engineers Interviews of Bob Myers, Alan Jacobsen, and Mark Nikolic by the author, June 4, 2014. 150 and a 2010 Australian study confirmed that it is J. I. Westbrook, A. Woods, M. I.
The Glass Cage: Automation and Us by Nicholas Carr
Airbnb, Airbus A320, Andy Kessler, Atul Gawande, autonomous vehicles, Bernard Ziegler, business process, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Charles Lindbergh, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, computerized trading, David Brooks, deliberate practice, deskilling, digital map, Douglas Engelbart, drone strike, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, High speed trading, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jacquard loom, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, natural language processing, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, place-making, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, software is eating the world, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, turn-by-turn navigation, US Airways Flight 1549, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Langewiesche
In early 2009, just a few weeks before the Continental Connection crash in Buffalo, a US Airways Airbus A320 lost all engine power after hitting a flock of Canada geese on takeoff from LaGuardia Airport in New York. Acting quickly and coolly, Captain Chesley Sullenberger and his first officer, Jeffrey Skiles, managed, in three harrowing minutes, to ditch the crippled jet safely in the Hudson River. All passengers and crew were evacuated. If the pilots hadn’t been there to “babysit” the A320, a craft with state-of-the-art automation, the jet would have crashed and everyone on board would almost certainly have perished.
The Airbus sidesticks, in contrast, are not in clear view, they work with much subtler motions, and they operate independently. It’s easy for a pilot to miss what his colleague is doing, particularly in emergencies when stress rises and focus narrows. Had Robert seen and corrected Bonin’s error early on, the pilots may well have regained control of the A330. The Air France crash, Chesley Sullenberger has said, would have been “much less likely to happen” if the pilots had been flying in a Boeing cockpit with its human-centered controls.32 Even Bernard Ziegler, the brilliant and proud French engineer who served as Airbus’s top designer until his retirement in 1997, recently expressed misgivings about his company’s design philosophy.
., 179n Slamecka, Norman, 72–73, 74 slavery, slaves, 20, 21, 25, 26, 224–26 slot machines, 179n Small, Willard, 88 smartphones, 12–13, 33, 91, 136, 199–202 smartwatch, 201, 202 Smith, Adam, 21–22, 106–7 social decision-making, 122 social networks, 181–82 society, 159–60, 161, 172, 173, 176 automation’s changing of nature of, 193–99, 202 trade-offs made by, 207–8 sociologists, 109, 158–59 software, 1, 7–8, 12, 27, 28, 30, 33, 40, 52, 66, 67, 90, 108, 114–16, 119, 136, 151–52 architecture and design, 135, 138–47, 167, 229–30 cognitive processes and, 74–77, 80 compelling urgency of, 194 decision support, 70–71 ergonomics and, 164 ethics and, 184, 204 hidden assumptions of, 206 human- vs. technology-centered, 156, 160, 172–76 limits of, 9, 205 medical, 97–100, 114–15 planes and, 52, 54, 57, 168 social adaptations to, 202–8 trust in, 69 video games as model for design of, 178–82 software programmers, 157, 159, 174, 175 space, 129–30, 133–36, 205 Specialmatic, 174–75 speed, 17, 20, 35, 38, 51, 88, 159, 181, 207 of computers, 118–22, 139, 156, 164, 173, 219 of robots, 186 spell checkers, 180–81 Spence, Michael, 30 Sperry, Elmer A., 47 Sperry, Lawrence, 46–47, 50, 53, 232 Sperry autopilot, 47–49 Sperry Corporation, 49, 58 Spinoza, Baruch, 216 spy agencies, 120 Stanton, Neville, 90–91 Star Trek, 232 steamships, 36–37 stick shift, 3–6, 13 Street View, 136 substitution myth, 67, 97, 98, 129, 193 Sullenberger, Chesley, 154, 170 supersystem, development of, 196 Sutherland, Ivan, 138 tablets, 153, 199, 202 tacit (procedural) knowledge, 9–11, 83, 105, 113, 144 talents, 12, 27, 61, 74, 83, 85, 112, 216, 217, 219 of doctors, 105 human, limits to replication of, 9 Talisse, Robert, 85 Tango (mapping technology), 136 Taylor, Frederick Winslow, 107, 108, 114, 158, 207 teachers, teaching, 10, 12, 32, 153 technical arrogance, 175 technological momentum, 172–75, 196 technological unemployment, 26, 27, 198 technology, 1–2, 150–51, 215–32 health information, 93–106 invisibility of, 203–4, 208–10 labor-saving, 17, 20, 28, 67 long history of ambivalence to, 21–41 master-slave metaphor and, 224–26 progress and, see progress, technological TED conference (2013), 199–201 Tesla Motors, 8 tests, medical, 70–71, 99, 102, 245n–46n Thiel, Peter, 227 thinking, thought, 65, 67, 147–51 artificial intelligence and, 119 drawing as, 142–43, 144 Thinking Hand, The (Pallasmaa), 145 Thomis, Malcolm, 23 THOR (software program), 171 Thrun, Sebastian, 6, 207 tools, 150–51, 158, 174, 185, 195, 215–19, 221–26 To Save Everything, Click Here (Morozov), 225 traders, trading, 77, 115, 171 Tranel, Ben, 167 transport, 48, 49, 132, 173 “Tuft of Flowers, The” (Frost), 221 Turing, Alan, 119–20 Turkle, Sherry, 69 unconscious mind, 121, 148–49 unemployment, 20, 25–29, 38 technological, 26, 27, 198 United Kingdom, 95 University College London, 133 UPS, 117 U.S.
Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life by Rory Sutherland
3D printing, Alfred Russel Wallace, barriers to entry, basic income, Black Swan, butterfly effect, California gold rush, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Cass Sunstein, cognitive dissonance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dava Sobel, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, double helix, Downton Abbey, Elon Musk, Firefox, George Akerlof, gig economy, Google Chrome, Google X / Alphabet X, Grace Hopper, Hyperloop, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, IKEA effect, information asymmetry, James Dyson, John Harrison: Longitude, loss aversion, low cost airline, Mason jar, Murray Gell-Mann, Peter Thiel, placebo effect, race to the bottom, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, Rory Sutherland, salary depends on his not understanding it, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, the map is not the territory, The Market for Lemons, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, ultimatum game, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, US Airways Flight 1549, Veblen good
A fielder would, of course, have no time to perform mathematical calculations, even if a calculator were available, and moreover, even if he had enough time and calculating power, he simply wouldn’t have enough data without knowing the velocity or the angle at which the ball was hit to calculate its trajectory to any level of accuracy. The batsman who hit the ball probably wouldn’t know, either.* 5.4: He’s Not Stupid, He’s Satisficing On 15 January 2009, in an incident now known as the ‘Miracle on the Hudson’, Captain Chesley Sullenberger demonstrated the value of heuristics when, after his aircraft had both its engines disabled by a bird strike, he reacted quickly and safely landed on the Hudson River. It is possible to listen to Sullenberger’s conversations with air traffic control on YouTube: between attempts to restart the engines, he communicates with the departure airport. Having immediately rejected the possibility of returning to LaGuardia, correctly as it turns out, he is offered the possibility of landing at Teterboro Airport, which is in New Jersey over to his starboard side.
A former US Air Force fighter pilot, Sullenberger was a glider pilot in his spare time, and all glider pilots learn a simple instinctive rule which enables them to tell whether a possible landing site on the ground is within their reach. They simply place the glider in the shallowest possible rate of descent and look through the windshield: any place which appears to be moving downwards in the field of view is somewhere they can safely land, while anywhere on the ground that appears to be moving upwards is too far away. It was by deploying this rule that he was able to decide within seconds that the Hudson River was the only feasible landing site.
The main value of having a swimming pool at home is not that you swim in it, but that it allows you to walk around your garden in a bathing costume without feeling like an idiot. A friend who had been invited to spend a week on a luxury yacht explained why they are so popular with megalomaniacs: ‘You can invite your friends to join you on holiday, then spend the week treating them like you are Captain Bligh.’ If you have the most magnificent villa in the world, there is still the risk that your friends and rivals might hire a car and wander off on their own: on a megayacht, however, they are your captives.* One problem (of many) with Soviet-style command economies is that they can only work if people know what they want and need, and can define and express their wants adequately.
Our Robots, Ourselves: Robotics and the Myths of Autonomy by David A. Mindell
Air France Flight 447, autonomous vehicles, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Charles Lindbergh, Chris Urmson, digital map, disruptive innovation, drone strike, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, fudge factor, index card, John Markoff, low earth orbit, Mars Rover, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, telepresence, telerobotics, trade route, US Airways Flight 1549, William Langewiesche, zero-sum game
De Crespigny marshaled his remaining resources, focused his attention, and the crew landed flight QF32 safely back in Singapore with no injuries. Every time lives are lost due to human error, we can think of other times when they have been saved by human judgment and skill. QF32, and the “miraculous” 2009 US Airways landing on the Hudson River at the hands of Captain Chesley Sullenberger, seem to show that experienced, skilled, calculating humans are critical safety features of these systems on which our lives depend, the last line of defense when the machines fail. Air France 447 and others undermine those hopes. In the summer of 2013, pilots of Asiana Airlines flight 214 failed to successfully land their modern Boeing 777 in San Francisco on a perfectly clear day; the crash landing killed three and injured scores.
“The twentieth century was born yearning for a new type of hero,” writes aviation historian Robert Wohl, “someone able to master the cold, inhuman machines that the nineteenth century bequeathed and at the same type transforming them into resplendent art and myth.” From Charles Lindbergh to Neil Armstrong to “Sully” Sullenberger, the cultural icon of the pilot embodied the human on the cutting edge of technology and social change. Analogies flowed freely—the adventurer of the sky, the aerial artist, the athlete of the third dimension. World War I offered new identities, particularly the “knight of the air” flying fighter ace, reviving ancient mythologies to rescue heroism from an anonymous war of trenches and random death.
., 38 Skynet (driverless car), 204–5 SM4 Hubble repair mission on STS-125, 173, 174–75 Southwest Airlines, 92–93 spaceflight and exploration, 159–90 autoland and, 159–63 heads up display (HUD) and, 159 Hubble Space Telescope service and repair missions and, 163–75 Mars Exploration Rover (MER) missions and, 163, 164, 175–90 space shuttles, 161–63 Spirit (mobile robot), 181, 184–86 Squyres, Steven, 175, 183–84, 185 SR-71 spy plane, 123 Star Wars (movie), 161, 217 STS-61 (first Hubble repair mission), 167–72 Sullenberger, Chesley, 72, 77 supervisory control, 38, 62 synthetic vision, 108–9, 225 systems managers, pilots as, 80 Talos (driverless car), 204–5 telepresence, 26, 43, 57 Teller, Seth, 200 Thornton, Kathy, 170, 171–72 Three Mile Island nuclear accident, 38 Thresher (submarine), 27, 36, 42 Thronson, Harley, 188–89 Thrun, Sebastian, 199–200 Time, 50–51 Titanic (movie), 51 Titanic (ship), 40, 42–43, 45–51 Toscano, Michael, 219–20 Trieste (bathyscaphe), 35, 44 trimming of aircraft, 116 Turkish Airlines crash, in Amsterdam, 105 U-2 spy plane, 123 Uber, 199 Uchuppi, Al, 43 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Deep Sea and Foreign Going by Rose George
Admiral Zheng, air freight, Airbus A320, Albert Einstein, bank run, cable laying ship, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Costa Concordia, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Filipino sailors, global supply chain, Google Earth, intermodal, Jones Act, London Whale, Malacca Straits, Panamax, pattern recognition, profit maximization, Skype, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, urban planning, WikiLeaks, William Langewiesche
He tried to call the barge and got no response, then watched in disbelief as the barge hit his ship, fracturing all three cargo tanks. Suddenly there he was in the middle of an environmental disaster ‘with hydrocarbons all around us’. Imagine that the ship was an aeroplane. Imagine, for example, that it was US Airways Airbus A320, landed on New York’s Hudson River by Captain Chelsey Sullenberger in 2009. Although fuel oil was discharged into the river, Captain Sullenberger was an immediate hero, because all lives were saved. No-one died either in the collision between the barge and Hebei Spirit. Yet Jasprit Chawla and his first officer were immediately thrown in jail. Chawla had been at sea for 16 years without incident.
., 1 sewage sludge, discharge of, 1, 2 sextants, 1, 2, 3 sharks, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Shibin, Mohammed Saaili, 1 ship-building, 1 shipping industry and environment, 1 recession in, 1 secrecy and invisibility, 1, 2, 3 and whale strikes, 1 shipping news, 1 ships abandoned, 1 laid-up, 1 naming of, 1, 2 ships’ agents, 1, 2 ships’ bridges, 1 ships’ captains earnings, 1 in port, 1 and shipwrecks, 1, 2 social isolation, 1 ships’ cats, 1, 2 ships’ chandlers, 1, 2, 3 ships’ godmothers, 1 ships’ propellers, 1 Shipwrecked Mariners’ Society, 1 shore leave, 1, 2, 3 Short, John, 1 Shortland, Dr Anja, 1 Sierra Leone, civil war, 1, 2 Silva Barata, Lieutenant-Commander Pedro, 1, 2 Simon, Able Seaman (cat), 1, 2 Singapore, 1, 2, 3 Slabbekoorn, Hans, 1 ‘slow steaming’, 1 Smuggling Precautions, 1 sniffer bees, 1, 2 sniffer dogs, 1 Soladiesel, 1 Somali fishermen, 1 Somali pirates, see piracy and pirates sonar, 1 South Shields, 1 Southampton, 1, 2 Southend Pier, 1 Sovereign Ventures, 1, 2 Special Boat Service, 1 SPS Infanta Cristina, 1 SS Alcoa Guide, 1 SS Amazone, 1 SS Anglo Saxon, 1, 2 SS Ashby, 1 SS Athenia, 1 SS Benvrackie, 1 SS Calchas, 1 SS Cingalese Prince, 1 SS City of Cairo sinking, 1, 2 SS Culworth Hill, 1 SS Halsey, 1 SS Rakhotis, 1 SS Soekaboemi, 1 SS Storaa, 1 SS Svendborg, 1 SS Warrior, 1 Stena Lines, 1 Stephen, King, 1 stevedores, 1 Stobbart, Frank, 1 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 1, 2 storms, 1 stowaways, 1 Strait of Gibraltar, 1 Strait of Hormuz, 1, 2 Straits of Malacca, 1, 2, 3 and piracy, 1 Strangers’ Rest Mission, 1 Strickler, Homer, 1 Strong, L.A.G., 1 Suez Canal, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 construction, 1 crews, 1 pilots, 1 transit costs, 1 Sullenberger, Captain Chelsey, 1 sulphur content, in fuel, 1, 2 Sumatra, 1, 2 Sunday Times (South Africa), 1 supply vessels, 1, 2, 3 Tapscott, Robert, 1 Taskar, Dr, 1, 2 Taylor, ex-President Charles, 1, 2 tea clippers, 1, 2 Tebbutt, David, 1 Thames, River, 1 Thomas, Captain Richard, 1 thunderboxes, 1 Tilbury, 1 Titanic (film), 1 Toki, Bryan, 1 trade, value of sea-borne, 1 transport costs, 1, 2 Trinh Vinh Thang, 1 tugs, 1 U-boats, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 UK Hydrographic Office, 1, 2 UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch, 1, 2 UK Maritime and Coastguard Authority, 1 UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre, 1 Ukrainian seafarers, 1, 2 Umenhofer, Walter, 1 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), 1, 2 UN Offices on Drugs and Crime, 1 United States of America and container security, 1 decline of seafaring, 1 hostility to seafarers, 1 merchant marine and wartime, 1, 2, 3 piracy prosecutions, 1 Prohibition era, 1 sea-borne trade, 1, 2 and seafarers’ welfare, 1 uranium, shipping of, 1 Urban Whale, The, 1, 2 US Coast Guard, 1 US Customs and Border Agency, 1, 2 US Department for Homeland Security, 1, 2 US Marines, 1, 2, 3, 4 US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), 1, 2 US Navy, 1, 2, 3, 4 anti-piracy patrols, 1 US Navy Seals, 1 US Office for Naval Research, 1 USCG cutter Campbell, 1 USS Cole, 1 USS Indianapolis, 1, 2 USS Nicholas, 1 USS Vella Gulf, 1 Vessel Data Recorders, 1 VHF radio, 1, 2, 3, 4 wages, unpaid, 1, 2 Wallis, Barnes, 1 war graves, 1 Watts, Norman, 1 Watts, Tiny, 1 whale-watching, 1 whales, 1 communication among, 1 disentanglement, 1, 2 Eubalaena glacialis, 1 exploding, 1 fasting, 1 identification of, 1 and noise, 1 ‘sagging’, 1 scat collecting, 1 skimming, 1 stranded, 1 whaling industry, 1 Widdicombe, Wilbert, 1, 2 Wilson, R.
Kendal shone searchlights on them, a passing US helicopter did a fly-by, and the suspect craft flashed lights back. Marius thinks they were friendly; the captain is more sceptical. Sometimes they pretend to be friendly. They lure you in. The captain’s daily orders, written instructions that are kept on the bridge, require his officers to stay four miles away from small craft if possible. He has written, ‘Trust no-one.’ Once, the captain was having dinner when the first officer made an announcement over the PA. ‘Captain to the bridge.’ This is not an announcement a captain ever likes to hear. He thought, ‘Oh, shit,’ displayed no outward alarm, and took the lift up to the wheelhouse.
Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb
"Robert Solow", Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Air France Flight 447, Airbus A320, algorithmic bias, Amazon Picking Challenge, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, basic income, Bayesian statistics, Black Swan, blockchain, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, collateralized debt obligation, computer age, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, data acquisition, data is the new oil, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Google Glasses, high net worth, ImageNet competition, income inequality, information retrieval, inventory management, invisible hand, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Lyft, Minecraft, Mitch Kapor, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Nate Silver, new economy, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, pattern recognition, performance metric, profit maximization, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, strong AI, The Future of Employment, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tim Cook: Apple, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, US Airways Flight 1549, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Langewiesche, Y Combinator, zero-sum game
While it does not take a tremendous amount of training to begin a job as a crew member at McDonald’s, new employees are slower and make more mistakes than their more experienced peers. They improve as they serve more customers. Commercial airline pilots also continue to improve from on-the-job experience. On January 15, 2009, when US Airways Flight 1549 was struck by a flock of Canada geese, shutting down all engine power, Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger miraculously landed the plane on the Hudson River, saving the lives of all 155 passengers. Most reporters attributed his performance to experience. He had recorded 19,663 total flight hours, including 4,765 flying an Airbus A320. Sully himself reflected: “One way of looking at this might be that for 42 years, I’ve been making small, regular deposits in this bank of experience, education, and training.
The judgment is the simple recognition that the objective is to score the most points. Teaching a machine to play a sandbox game like Minecraft or a collection game like Pokemon Go would require more judgment, since different people enjoy different aspects of the games. It isn’t clear what the goal should be. 8. Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger quoted in Katy Couric, “Capt. Sully Worried about Airline Industry,” CBS News, February 10, 2009; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/capt-sully-worried-about-airline-industry/. 9. Mark Harris, “Tesla Drivers Are Paying Big Bucks to Test Flawed Self-Driving Software,” Wired, March 4, 2017, https://backchannel.com/tesla-drivers-are-guinea-pigs-for-flawed-self-driving-software-c2cc80b483a#.s0u7lsv4f. 10.
., 49–50 human weaknesses in, 54–58 stereotypes, 19 Stern, Scott, 169–170, 218–219 Stigler, George, 105 strategy, 2, 18–19 AI-first, 179–180 AI’s impact on, 153–166 boundary shifting in, 157–158 business transformation and, 167–178 capital and, 170–171 cheap AI and, 15–17 data and, 174–176 economics of, 165 hybrid corn adoption and, 158–160 judgment and, 161–162 labor and, 171–174 learning, 179–194 organizational structure and, 161–162 value capture and, 162–165 strokes, predicting, 44–46, 47–49 Sullenberger, Chesley “Sully,” 184 supervised learning, 183 Sweeney, Latanya, 195, 196 Tadelis, Steve, 199 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 60–61 The Taming of Chance (Hacking), 40 Tanner, Adam, 195 task analysis, 74–75, 125–131 AI canvas and, 134–139 job redesign and, 142–145 Tay chatbot, 204–205 technical support, 90–91 Tencent Holdings, 164, 217, 218 Tesla, 8 Autopilot legal terms, 116 navigation apps and, 89 training data at, 186–187 upgrades at, 188 Tesla Motor Club, 111–112 Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), 209–210 Tinder, 189 tolerance for error, 184–186 tools, AI, 18 AI canvas and, 134–138 for deconstructing work flows, 123–131 impact of on work flows, 126–129 job redesign and, 141–151 usefulness of, 158–160 topological data analysis, 13 trade-offs, 3, 4 in AI-first strategy, 181–182 with data, 174–176 between data amounts and costs, 44 between risks and benefits, 205 satisficing and, 107–109 simulations and, 187–188 strategy and, 156 training data for, 43, 45–47 data risks, 202–204 in decision making, 74–76, 134–138 by humans, 96–97 in-house and on-the-job, 185 in medical imaging, 147 in modeling skills, 101 translation, language, 25–27, 107–108 trolley problem, 116 truck drivers, 149–150 Tucker, Catherine, 196 Tunstall-Pedoe, William, 2 Turing, Alan, 13 Turing test, 39 Tversky, Amos, 55 Twitter, Tay chatbot on, 204–205 Uber, 88–89, 164–165, 190 uncertainty, 3, 103–110 airline industry and weather, 168–169, 170 airport lounges and, 105–106 business boundaries and, 168–170 contracts in dealing with, 170–171 in e-commerce delivery times, 157–158 reducing, strategy and, 156–157 strategy and, 165 unknown knowns, 59, 61–65, 99 unknown unknowns, 59, 60–61 US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 171 US Census Bureau, 14 US Department of Defense, 14, 116 US Department of Transportation, 112, 185 Validere, 3 value, capturing, 162–165 variables, 45 omitted, 62 Varian, Hal, 43 variance, 34–36 fulfillment industry and, 144–145 taming complexity and, 103–110 Vicarious, 223 video games, 183 Vinge, Vernor, 221 VisiCalc, 141–142, 163, 164 Wald, Abraham, 101 Wanamaker, John, 174–175 warehouses, robots in, 105 Watson, 146 Waymo, 95 Waze, 89–90, 106, 191 WeChat, 164 Wells Fargo, 173 Windows 95, 9–10 The Wizard of Oz, 24 work flows AI tools’ impact on, 126–129 decision making and, 133–140 deconstructing, 123–131 iPhone keyboard design and, 129–130 job redesign and, 142–145 task analysis, 125–131 World War II bombing raids, 100–102 X.ai, 97 Xu Heyi, 164 Yahoo, 216 Y Combinator, 210 Yeomans, Mike, 117 YouTube, 176 ZipRecruiter, 93–94, 100 About the Authors AJAY AGRAWAL is professor of strategic management and Peter Munk Professor of Entrepreneurship at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management and the founder of the Creative Destruction Lab.
Ghost Road: Beyond the Driverless Car by Anthony M. Townsend
A Pattern Language, active measures, AI winter, algorithmic trading, asset-backed security, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, big-box store, bike sharing scheme, business process, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, car-free, carbon footprint, computer vision, conceptual framework, congestion charging, connected car, creative destruction, crew resource management, crowdsourcing, DARPA: Urban Challenge, data is the new oil, Dean Kamen, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, dematerialisation, deskilling, drive until you qualify, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, extreme commuting, financial innovation, Flash crash, gig economy, Google bus, haute couture, helicopter parent, independent contractor, inventory management, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, jitney, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, loss aversion, Lyft, megacity, minimum viable product, mortgage debt, New Urbanism, North Sea oil, openstreetmap, pattern recognition, Peter Calthorpe, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Ray Oldenburg, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, software as a service, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, surveillance capitalism, technological singularity, Tesla Model S, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, The Great Good Place, too big to fail, traffic fines, transit-oriented development, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, urban planning, urban sprawl, US Airways Flight 1549, Vernor Vinge
Finally, the delegation of driving to computers may make operating a vehicle more complex, not less. This has long been the case in aviation. Pilots of today’s aircraft now require much more training. “Technology does not eliminate error, but it changes the nature of errors that are made, and it introduces new kinds of errors,” argues Captain Chesley Sullenberger, the US Airways pilot who safely landed an airliner in the Hudson River in 2009. The further the spread of automation in the cockpit, the thicker the machines’ manuals have become. OUR PRESENT TERMINOLOGY for the journey ahead is deeply problematic. The proof is in the public attitude. According to annual surveys by the American Automobile Association, a motorists’ advocacy group, in 2017, 63 percent of US drivers reported they “would be afraid to ride in a fully self-driving vehicle.”
See driverless shuttles Shyp, 133 Sidewalk Labs, 209, 210, 211, 222, 232 Silverdome (Pontiac, MI), 196n SilverRide, 95 Singapore, 97, 167, 169, 177, 209, 211 singletons, 237–38 Singularity predictions, 234–35, 236–38 Skype, 56 smartphones, 13, 64, 89, 90, 139, 169 see also mobile phones SoftBank, 176, 176–78, 238 software trains, 70–71, 70–72, 197, 200–201, 202, 204, 206 Son, Masayoshi, 176, 178 Space10 (IKEA), 72–73 specialization overview, 16 shifts in daily travel patterns, 53–54 of taxibot rides, 95–97 of traditional automobiles, 52, 80 vehicular variety increase, 16, 18, 52–55 see also specific types of AVs Speedostat, 24 Sprinter delivery vans (Mercedes), 125 Stae, 247 Standard Oil, 174 Starship conveyors, 55–56, 57, 125, 192 Starship Technologies, 56, 57, 124–25 Starsky Robotics, 46 status quo bias, 49–50, 52 steering wheel introduction, 4 Steffens, Lincoln, 180 store closures in US, 117–18, 121 streetcars, 58, 59, 88–89, 106, 174–75, 180–81, 186 “street furniture,” 77 suitcases, semi-autonomous, 125 Sullenberger, Chesley, 45 Superintelligence (Bostrom), 236–37 supermarket, origins of, 116 Superpedestrian, 66 surge pricing, 17, 87, 181 Swift Nick, 161 task model for computerization of work, 150–54, 151, 155 taxibots (AV cabs) computer models of growth, 97–98, 99 doubts about cost-effectiveness, 97–98 impact on taxi business, 94–95 overview, 60–61, 94–95 price savings, 94, 96 rides for pregnant women, 96–97 specialization of rides, 95–97 traffic congestion and, 99 Waymo self-driving taxi service, 8, 46, 97, 230, 240–41 see also mobility as a service taxis automation predicted by 2030, 10–11 impact of taxibot takeover, 94–95 meters in, 169 number of vehicles, 10 ride-hail push to deregulate the taxi business, 40 Waymo self-driving taxi service, 8, 46, 97, 230, 240–41 Teague, 127 TECO Line streetcar (Tampa, FL), 58, 59 Teetor, Ralph, 24, 26 Tel Aviv’s traffic gridlock, 85–87, 88 Tesla, 26–29, 44, 60, 62, 231 three big stories of the driverless revolution, 16–20, 187–88, 238, 248, 253 see also financialization of mobility; materialization; specialization Thrun, Sebastian, xiv, 7, 8 ticketing in transit systems, 89, 90–91, 93, 109, 110–11 time wasted on commuting, 9, 12, 30–31 Toffler, Alvin, 120 toll roads in Great Britain, 162–63 Toronto, Canada, 209–10, 213–14, 222 traction monopolies investors, 176–78, 182–83 in New York City, 174, 174, 180 in Philadelphia, 180 SoftBank, 176, 176–78, 238 in streetcar era, 174, 174–75, 180 traffic congestion cost of time wasted, 9, 12, 30 driverless shuttles and, 106 predicted effects of AVs, 9 ride-hail and, 168 taxibots and, 99 see also congestion pricing trafficgeddons, 85–86 Trafi, 109, 216 transects of the driverless city, 187–88, 188–89, 194–95, 198–99, 200–201, 206–7, 208 transit oriented development (TOD), 200, 202, 203–4 transit systems autonomist contempt for, 214–15 impact of ride-hail, 215–16 as mobility integrators, 216 response to driverless revolution, 214–17 ticketing in, 89, 90–91, 93, 109, 110–11 as transportation utilities, 216 workforce changes, 216–17 TransMilenio (Bogotá), 69 Trikala, Greece, 102–3 trip chaining, 54 Tron (film), 137 trucks and trucking accident risks, 156 automated fleets impact on economic risks, 156–58 automation and types of truck drivers, 153–54 freight AVs and, 125–26 industrial sprawl and, 12–13 investment in self-driving truck startups, 152 “land trains” and “road trains,” 69 last-mile delivery, 121–29, 154, 218 platoons and platooning, 68–69, 70–71 self-driving tractor-trailers, 68, 122 software trains, 70–71 volatile energy costs, 157 Tsukuba, Japan, 6, 8, 216 turnpike trusts in Great Britain, 162–63 Turpin, Dick, 161 Uber betrayal of cities, 181 Careem purchase by, 177 competition with Lyft, 177–78, 179 congestion pricing, 179, 181 dynamic pricing, 181 fatal AV–pedestrian accident, 231 Greyball program, 178 initial public offering, 97, 177, 181 Jump bike-share platform, 202 limited global footprint, 98 market cap, 97 Micromobility Robotics, 67 number of vehicles, 10 partnerships with public transit, 110–11 relationship with transit, 215 SoftBank and, 177 specialization and variety of rides, 95, 96, 110–11 subscriptions, 244 surge pricing, 17, 87, 181 taxibots, 97 traffic congestion and, 168 Uber Eats, 124 vertically integrated urban-mobility empire, 98 Udelv, 57–58 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), 246 UPS, 116, 120, 127, 130 urban design and driverless cities automation and urban concentration, 186–87 automobiles and urban expansion, 185 complete streets (shared streets), 208–9 core, 187, 188, 188–96, 194–95 desakota, 187, 189, 205–8, 206–7 freight tunnels, 211 fulfillment zone, 187, 188, 196–99, 198–99 infill housing, 204, 253–55 legibility, 229–30, 231 megablocks, 209–10 microsprawl, 187, 189, 200–201, 200–205, 243 parking, 189–93 population growth and home building, 253–54 separation of people and vehicles, 208–12, 210 transects, 187–88, 188–89, 194–95, 198–99, 200–201, 206–7, 208 transit oriented development (TOD), 200, 202, 203–4 urban growth since 1950, 186 Urbanetic, 58 Urban Mobility in a Digital Age, 88 urban ushers, 76–77, 77–79 Vélib system (Paris), 63 VeoRide, 67 Via, 107 Vickrey, William, 165–67, 168, 169, 172 Vinge, Vernor, 233–34 Vision Fund, 176, 178 Vitruvius, 169 von Neumann, John, 234 “Walking City” (Herron), 74 warehouseless distribution systems, 157–58 Waste Management, 142 wayfinding, 229–30 Waymo improvement in rate of disengagement, 42 lidar cost reduction, 35 market cap, 97 market share goal for 2030, 11 remote human safety monitors, 46, 98 self-driving taxi service, 8, 46, 97, 230, 240–41 see also Google Waze, 86–87 Webb, Kevin, 233 Where Do Cars Go at Night?
There could be a half dozen or more to choose from, including private cars, private bikes, taxis, buses, trains, trams, shared bikes, shared cars, and simply walking. Layer in all the different pricing options—pay-as-you-go, daily passes, monthly passes, and so on—and deciding how to get to work suddenly requires a master’s degree in economics. Consider my morning commute crossing the Hudson River into Manhattan, for instance. On any given day I can choose between a subway, a bus, or a ferry. Deciding which to take is a complex calculus of cost, comfort, and convenience that changes depending on work and family schedules, the weather, and service disruptions. Thankfully, there are loads of apps to help tame this tangle of consumer choice—it’s one of the busiest bits of reprogramming mobility going on today.
Utopia Is Creepy: And Other Provocations by Nicholas Carr
Air France Flight 447, Airbnb, Airbus A320, AltaVista, Amazon Mechanical Turk, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Bernie Sanders, book scanning, Brewster Kahle, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, centralized clearinghouse, Charles Lindbergh, cloud computing, cognitive bias, collaborative consumption, computer age, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, deskilling, digital map, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, Elon Musk, factory automation, failed state, feminist movement, Frederick Winslow Taylor, friendly fire, game design, global village, Google bus, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Googley, hive mind, impulse control, indoor plumbing, interchangeable parts, Internet Archive, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, Joan Didion, job automation, Kevin Kelly, lifelogging, low skilled workers, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, Menlo Park, mental accounting, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norman Mailer, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, Peter Thiel, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Republic of Letters, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, SETI@home, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Singularitarianism, Snapchat, social graph, social web, speech recognition, Startup school, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, technoutopianism, the medium is the message, theory of mind, Turing test, Whole Earth Catalog, Y Combinator, Yochai Benkler
Computers are wonderful at following instructions, but they’re lousy at improvisation. They resemble, in the words of computer scientist Hector Levesque, “idiot savants” who are “hopeless outside their area of expertise.” Their talents end at the limits of their programming. Human skill is less circumscribed. Think of Captain Sully Sullenberger landing that Airbus A320 on the Hudson River after its engines were taken out by a flock of geese. Born of deep experience in the real world, such intuition lies beyond calculation. If computers had the ability to be amazed, they’d be amazed by us. While our own flaws loom large in our thoughts, we view computers as infallible.
., 332 speech recognition, 137 spermatic, as term applied to reading, 247, 248, 250, 254 Spinoza, Baruch, 300–301 Spotify, 293, 314 “Sprite Sips” (app), 54 Squarciafico, Hieronimo, 240–41 Srinivasan, Balaji, 172 Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 68 Starr, Karla, 217–18 Star Trek, 26, 32, 313 Stengel, Rick, 28 Stephenson, Neal, 116 Sterling, Bruce, 113 Stevens, Wallace, 158 Street View, 137, 283 Stroop test, 98–99 Strummer, Joe, 63–64 Studies in Classic American Literature (Lawrence), xxiii Such Stuff as Dreams (Oatley), 248–49 suicide rate, 304 Sullenberger, Sully, 322 Sullivan, Andrew, xvi Sun Microsystems, 257 “surf cams,” 56–57 surfing, internet, 14–15 surveillance, 52, 163–65, 188–89 surveillance-personalization loop, 157 survival, technologies of, 118, 119 Swing, Edward, 95 Talking Heads, 136 talk radio, 319 Tan, Chade-Meng, 162 Tapscott, Don, 84 tattoos, 336–37, 340 Taylor, Frederick Winslow, 164, 237–38 Taylorism, 164, 238 Tebbel, John, 275 Technics and Civilization (Mumford), 138, 235 technology: agricultural, 305–6 American culture transformed by, xv–xxii, 148, 155–59, 174–77, 214–15, 229–30, 296–313, 329–42 apparatus vs. artifact in, 216–19 brain function affected by, 231–42 duality of, 240–41 election campaigns transformed by, 314–20 ethical hazards of, 304–11 evanescence and obsolescence of, 327 human aspiration and, 329–42 human beings eclipsed by, 108–9 language of, 201–2, 214–15 limits of, 341–42 master-slave metaphor for, 307–9 military, 331–32 need for critical thinking about, 311–13 opt-in society run by, 172–73 progress in, 77–78, 188–89, 229–30 risks of, 341–42 sociology and, 210–13 time perception affected by, 203–6 as tool of knowledge and perception, 299–304 as transcendent, 179–80 Technorati, 66 telegrams, 79 telegraph, Twitter compared to, 34 telephones, 103–4, 159, 288 television: age of, 60–62, 79, 93, 233 and attention disorders, 95 in education, 134 Facebook ads on, 155–56 introduction of, 103–4, 159, 288 news coverage on, 318 paying for, 224 political use of, 315–16, 317 technological adaptation of, 237 viewing habits for, 80–81 Teller, Astro, 195 textbooks, 290 texting, 34, 73, 75, 154, 186, 196, 205, 233 Thackeray, William, 318 “theory of mind,” 251–52 Thiel, Peter, 116–17, 172, 310 “Things That Connect Us, The” (ad campaign), 155–58 30 Days of Night (film), 50 Thompson, Clive, 232 thought-sharing, 214–15 “Three Princes of Serendip, The,” 12 Thurston, Baratunde, 153–54 time: memory vs., 226 perception of, 203–6 Time, covers of, 28 Time Machine, The (Wells), 114 tools: blurred line between users and, 333 ethical choice and, 305 gaining knowledge and perception through, 299–304 hand vs. computer, 306 Home and Away blurred by, 159 human agency removed from, 77 innovation in, 118 media vs., 226 slave metaphor for, 307–8 symbiosis with, 101 Tosh, Peter, 126 Toyota Motor Company, 323 Toyota Prius, 16–17 train disasters, 323–24 transhumanism, 330–40 critics of, 339–40 transparency, downside of, 56–57 transsexuals, 337–38 Travels and Adventures of Serendipity, The (Merton and Barber), 12–13 Trends in Biochemistry (Nightingale and Martin), 335 TripAdvisor, 31 trolls, 315 Trump, Donald, 314–18 “Tuft of Flowers, A” (Frost), 305 tugboats, noise restrictions on, 243–44 Tumblr, 166, 185, 186 Turing, Alan, 236 Turing Test, 55, 137 Twain, Mark, 243 tweets, tweeting, 75, 131, 315, 319 language of, 34–36 theses in form of, 223–26 “tweetstorm,” xvii 20/20, 16 Twilight Saga, The (Meyer), 50 Twitter, 34–36, 64, 91, 119, 166, 186, 197, 205, 223, 224, 257, 284 political use of, 315, 317–20 2001: A Space Odyssey (film), 231, 242 Two-Lane Blacktop (film), 203 “Two Tramps in Mud Time” (Frost), 247–48 typewriters, writing skills and, 234–35, 237 Uber, 148 Ubisoft, 261 Understanding Media (McLuhan), 102–3, 106 underwearables, 168–69 unemployment: job displacement in, 164–65, 174, 310 in traditional media, 8 universal online library, 267–78 legal, commercial, and political obstacles to, 268–71, 274–78 universe, as memory, 326 Urban Dictionary, 145 utopia, predictions of, xvii–xviii, xx, 4, 108–9, 172–73 Uzanne, Octave, 286–87, 290 Vaidhyanathan, Siva, 277 vampires, internet giants compared to, 50–51 Vampires (game), 50 Vanguardia, La, 190–91 Van Kekerix, Marvin, 134 vice, virtual, 39–40 video games, 223, 245, 303 as addictive, 260–61 cognitive effects of, 93–97 crafting of, 261–62 violent, 260–62 videos, viewing of, 80–81 virtual child, tips for raising a, 73–75 virtual world, xviii commercial aspects of, 26–27 conflict enacted in, 25–27 language of, 201–2 “playlaborers” of, 113–14 psychological and physical health affected by, 304 real world vs., xx–xxi, 36, 62, 127–30 as restrictive, 303–4 vice in, 39–40 von Furstenberg, Diane, 131 Wales, Jimmy, 192 Wallerstein, Edward, 43–44 Wall Street, automation of, 187–88 Wall Street Journal, 8, 16, 86, 122, 163, 333 Walpole, Horace, 12 Walters, Barbara, 16 Ward, Adrian, 200 Warhol, Andy, 72 Warren, Earl, 255, 257 “Waste Land, The” (Eliot), 86, 87 Watson (IBM computer), 147 Wealth of Networks, The (Benkler), xviii “We Are the Web” (Kelly), xxi, 4, 8–9 Web 1.0, 3, 5, 9 Web 2.0, xvi, xvii, xxi, 33, 58 amorality of, 3–9, 10 culturally transformative power of, 28–29 Twitter and, 34–35 “web log,” 21 Wegner, Daniel, 98, 200 Weinberger, David, 41–45, 277 Weizenbaum, Joseph, 236 Wells, H.
From The Atlantic 2008 SCREAMING FOR QUIET IN 1906, JULIA BARNETT RICE, a wealthy New York physician and philanthropist, founded the Society for the Suppression of Unnecessary Noise. Rice, who lived with her husband and six children in a Manhattan mansion overlooking the Hudson River, had become enraged at the way tugboats would blow their horns incessantly while steaming up and down the busy waterway. During a typical night, the tugs would emit two or three thousand toots, most of which served merely as sonic greetings between friendly captains. Armed with research documenting the health problems caused by the sleep-shattering racket, Rice launched a one-woman lobbying campaign that took her to police stations, health departments, the offices of shipping regulators, and ultimately the halls of Congress.
QI: The Second Book of General Ignorance by Lloyd, John, Mitchinson, John
Ada Lovelace, Boris Johnson, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Charles Lindbergh, clean water, disinformation, double helix, Etonian, George Santayana, ghettoisation, Isaac Newton, Lao Tzu, Louis Pasteur, Mikhail Gorbachev, Murano, Venice glass, out of africa, the built environment, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, traveling salesman, US Airways Flight 1549
Despite such unnerving obstacles, there have been at least half a dozen successful emergency landings by airliners on water, including one off the coast of Sicily in 2005. The most recent and spectacular example occurred in January 2009 when an Airbus A380, US Airways Flight 1549, ditched in the Hudson River in New York. Shortly after take off, the plane hit a flock of geese and Captain Chesley ‘Sully’ Sullenberger III had to make a forced landing on the water. He did this perfectly, saving the lives of all 155 people on board. Airline statisticians like to say that you are ten times more likely to be hit by a comet than to die in a plane crash. This is because, once every million years or so, an extraterrestrial body collides with Earth.
Charles 1 Kittenger, Joseph 1 Kleitman, Dr Nathaniel 1, 2 Knox, Father Ronald 1, 2 knuckle cracking 1 Kodak 1 König, Peter 1 Krakatoa, eruption of 1 Kraken Mare lake (Titan) 1 Kwok, Dr Robert Ho Man 1 Lack, David 1 lactose tolerance 1 Ladbrokes 1 lake, largest 1 Lanfray, Jean 1 Lang, Gerhard 1 language official 1 spoken in ancient Rome 1 Latin 1, 2 as official language in Vatican 1 latitudinal libration 1 laurel wreath 1 lavatories 1 on aeroplanes 1 and hygiene 1 injuries while on 1 lead, hardness of 1 Leaning Tower of Pisa 1 Lebensprüfer (’Life-prover’) 1 Lebistina beetle 1 Leeuwenhoek, Anton van 1 Lent 1 Leo XIII, Pope 1 lepers, carrying bells 1, 2 leprosy 1 letterboxes 1 lexical-gustatory synaesthesia 1 libration 1, 2 lichens 1 Lilienthal, Otto 1 lingua franca 1, 2 Linnaean Society 1 liver 1 Llanfair PG 1 London 1 London Fire Brigade 1 longitudinal libration 1 ‘loo’ 1 see also lavatories Lorenzini, Stefano 1 lorikeet 1 lost, going round in circles when 1 lottery 1 Louis XIII, King 1 Lovelace, Ada 1 Lusitania, sinking of (1915) 1 Luxembourg 1 lying 1 give-aways 1 McCay, Professor Clive 1 McClelland Royal Commission 1 Macedonia/Macedonians 1, 2 Macfarlane, Charles 1 MacMahan, Dr Jamie 1 Mafia 1 Magna Carta (1215) 1, 2 magnetoception 1 Mahavira 1 mammals and heartbeats 1 most aggressive 1 smallest 1 mangoes, speeding up ripening process 1 Mansfield, Lord 1 Manx Shearwater 1, 2 Mao Zedong 1, 2 Maralinga nuclear tests (Australia) 1 Mariani, Angelo 1 Marie Byrd Land 1, 2 Marmite 1 marngrook (‘game ball’) 1 Marryat, Captain Frederick 1 Mars 1, 2, 3, 4 marula tree 1 Marx, Karl 1 Mary I, Queen 1 Mary, Queen of Scots 1 Mather, Graham 1 Matilda, Queen 1, 2 mating mayflies 1 octopus 1, 2 snakes 1 Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics (Tübingen) 1 mayflies 1 Mediterranean 1 size 1 tides 1 Melton Mowbray 1 Melville, Herman Moby Dick 1 Omoo 1 menstruation, vicarious 1 Merian, Maria Sibylla 1 Mertz, Xavier 1 mesophere 1 Messalina, Empress 1 Messinian Salinity Crisis 1 meteorites 1 Metronidazole 1 Meyers-Briggs Type Indicator 1 mice, species of British 1 Michelin man 1 Michelin stars 1 Michelin Tyre Company 1 Mickey Mouse 1 micro-frog 1 microwave ovens 1 microwaves 1 military success, and France 1 Milk Marketing Board 1 Milton, John 1, 2 Milton Keynes 1, 2 minerals, creation of 1 mink 1 mints 1 mirages 1 mockingbirds 1 Mohs, Friedrich 1 Mohs Hardness scale 1 Molotov (Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Skriabin) 1 Molotov cocktails 1 Molotov-Ribbentrop pact (1939) 1 Mongolians 1, 2 monkey-pump 1 monosodium glutamate see MSG Montgomerie, Lieutenant Thomas 1 Moon 1 view from Earth 1 More, Sir Thomas 1 Morris, Reverend Marcus 1 Morris, Sir Parker 1 Morris, Steve 1 Morton, Charles 1 mosses 1 Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) 1 Moulin Rouge 1 mountains estimating height of 1 ‘in a high place’ notices 1 world’s second highest peak 1 Mpemba, Erasto 1 MSG (monosodium glutamate) 1, 2, 3 Munsters, The 1 Murray, Dr Stewart 1 mushrooms 1 Musk ox 1 Muslims, in India 1 Mussolini, Benito 1 mycology 1 naming, of new species 1 Naples 1 Napoleon 1, 2 height of 1 ‘Napoleon complex’ 1 narcotics 1 Natural History Museum 1 Nautilus pompilius 1 Nazis 1 Neanderthals 1, 2 Nelson, Horatio, height of 1, 2 Netherlands 1 see also Dutch New Labour laws 1 new towns 1 New Zealand 1 Newcastle Brown Ale 1 Newton, Humphrey 1 Newton, Sir Isaac 1, 2 Newton, Wayne 1 Nichols I, Tsar 1 nightmares, and eating cheese 1 Nile, River 1 nitrous oxide (laughing gas) 1 Nixon, Richard 1 no-man’s-land 1 noctilucent clouds 1 Normans 1, 2, 3 north, finding of in a forest 1 North Korea 1 North Sea 1 North Star (Polaris) 1 nosebleeds causes 1, 2 and death of Attila the Hun 1 treatment of 1 ‘not enough room to swing a cat’ phrase 1 Nubian people 1 Obama, Barack 1 oceans, temperature of 1 octopus 1, 2 Odo, Bishop of Bayeux 1 oil 1 Olympic Games 1 perfect 1 score 2 sports no longer included 1 opiods 1 opium 1 oranges, colour of 1 Orbison, Ray 1 organ transplants 1 Oswald the Lucky Rabbit 1 Ouroboros 1 ovum 1 Owen, Jennifer 1, 2 Oxford English Dictionary 1 oxygen 1 oxytocin 1 ozone layer 1 Pacioli, Luca 1 Paget, Stephen 1 pandas 1 pandemics 1 panspermia 1 papal infallibility 1 paper money 1 Papua New Guinea 1 parachute, opening of 1 paraesthesia 1 Paris, Michelin stars 1 Parker Morris standards 1 Parliament Acts (1911/1949) 1 Parthenon 1 Pascal, Blaise 1 Pasteur, Louis 1 peanuts, avoiding of in bars 1 Peary, Admiral Robert E. 1, 2 Peary Land 1 Pemberton, John Stith 1 Pen-tailed tree shrew 1 penguins 1 penicillin 1 penises Argentinian Lake Duck 1 snake’s two 1 Penny Black stamp 1 Penny Red stamp 1 Peterlee 1 Petition of Right Act (1628) 1 Pharnaces II, King 1, 2 phi 1 Phidias 1 Philip II, King of Spain 1 Phoenicians 1 phosphoric acid 1 photic sneeze reflex 1 pilchards 1 Pinker, Stephen 1 pins and needles 1 Pins and Needles (musical) 1 pirates 1, 2 Pius XII, Pope 1 place names, longest 1 plague 1, 2, 3 Plane Crazy 1 Plantagenet, House of 1 Plato, Timaeus 1 Pliny the Elder 1, 2 Plough (Big Dipper) 1 ploughman’s lunch 1 Ploughman’s Lunch, The (film) 1 Pocohontas 1 poisoning, by Vitamin A 1 ‘polar bear effect’ 1 Polyphemus 1 Pompey 1, 2 Pope 1 Poppaea (wife of Nero) 1 Post Office 1 postcards 1 postcodes 1 Potter, Beatrix 1 Powhatans 1, 2 praetors 1 preformationism 1 premature burial 1 prison uniforms, striped 1 progesterone 1 Progressive Muscle Relaxation 1 prostitutes 1 Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) status 1, 2 Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) status 1 Ptolemy I 1 Ptolemy XII 1 Ptolemy XIII 1 public speaking, fear of 1 puffins 1, 2 Puffinus puffinus 1 Pythian Games 1 Quinion, Michael 1 radar 1 radiation 1 radio plays, world coming to an end broadcasts 1 radioactivity 1 radium 1 railways, Italian 1 rainfall 1 Ransome, Arthur 1 Rapid Eye Movement (REM) sleep 1 rats 1 magnetic 1 rattlesnakes, on television 1 Rawlinson, Thomas 1 Raytheon 1 razor blade, as compass 1 Reagan, Nancy 1 recessions, and suicide 1 Red Sea 1 Rehn, Ludwig 1 Reith, Lord 1 Renaissance Bug see Halobacteria Rentokil 1 Representation of the People Act (1969) 1 reproduction 1 and budding 1 see also mating Rescue Annie 1 restaurants, and Michelin stars 1 resuscitation 1 Richard III, King 1, 2 Roberts, Andy 1 Roe, Donald 1 Rolfe, John 1 Roma 1 Romani 1 Romans/Roman Empire 1, 2 army/legions 1 conquering of Rome by Goths (410 AD) 1 eating of dormice 1 fighting of Huns 1 and glass 1 and hair 1 invasion of Britain 1 language spoken in Rome 1 sacking of Rome by Vandals (455) 1 treatment for insomnia 1 Roosevelt, President Theodore 1, 2 rope-climbing Olympians 1 Rothschild, Lord 1 rubber balls 1 Russian Revolution (1917) 1 rust 1 Rutzen, Michael 1 St Andrew’s Day 1 salt 1 Samaritans 1 sardines 1 satellite navigation 1 Saturn 1, 2, 3 sauna 1 Scarfe, Gerald 1 Schatz, Albert 1 Schimper, Anna 1 Schuetz, George and Edward 1 Scotland, wearing of kilts 1 Scott, Sir Walter 1, 2, 3 Scythians 1 seawater, freezing of 1 Second World War 1, 2, 3 Sellmer, Richard 1 semen 1 sensory substitution 1 Sequin, Albert 1 serfdom 1 Settlement Act (1701) 1 sewage, polluting of beaches 1 sex sneezing during 1 see also mating Shakespeare, William 1, 2 Henry VI Part (1) 1 sharks and tonic immobility 1 tracking by 1 Shaw, George Bernard 1, 2 shearwater 1 sheep-counting 1, 2 Sheffield 1 Sheffield FC 1 Shelley, Mary, Frankenstein 1 Shima Marineland Aquarium (Japan) 1 shivering 1 Sikhs, in India 1 silkworms 1 Sino-Japanese War (1937–45) 1 skin 1 breathing through 1 effect of drinking water on 1 shedding of dead 1 Skipsea (Yorkshire), planned atomic bomb explosion 1 slavery, in England 1 sleep 1 and dreaming 1 and eating cheese 1 REM (rapid eye movement) 1 slim appearance and black clothes 1 and stripes 1 smell 1 smiling 1 Smith, John 1 Smyrna 1 Smyth, Admiral W.H. 1 snakes beating heart of cobra 1 rattlesnakes on television 1 swallow big objects 1 tail 1 sneezing during sex 1 in response to bright light 1 snow 1 sound in space 1 speed of 1 South African pilchards 1 South Pacific 1 Southern Pole star 1 sovereigns 1 Soviet Union, and Second World War 1 space, sound in 1 Spanish Armada 1 Spanish Civil War 1 Spanish national anthem 1 species discovering new 1 naming of 1 Specific Anthropomorphic Mannequin (SAM) 1 spectacles 1 speed cameras 1 destruction of 1 Spelling Reform Bill 1 Spencer, Percy 1 sperm human 1 octopus 1 Spiderman 1 spiders 1 sportsmen, and huddles 1 Spratly Islands 1 staircases, helical 1 Stalin, Joseph 1 stamps 1 stars, finding north through observing 1 Steamboat Willie 1, 2 steel balls 1 Stevenson, Robert Louis, Treasure Island 1 ‘stiff upper lip’ 1 stiffness, measuring 1 Stilton cheese 1 Stilton (town) 1 stings, treatment of jellyfish 1 Stone Age 1 Stowe, Harriet Beecher 1 Straits of Gibraltar 1, 2 stratosphere 1 streptomycin 1, 2 stripes and appearance 1 substances hardest known 1 strangest 1 Sudan 1, 2 sugary drinks/food 1 suicide (s) and handwriting 1 and recessions 1 and Wall Street Crash (1929) 1 Sullenberger III, Captain Chesley ‘Sully’ 1 Sun rising of 1 setting of 1, 2 water vapour traces 1 supercooling 1 Superman 1 swallowing 1 sweat/sweating 1, 2 swordtail fish 1 Table Alphabeticall 1 tapestries 1 tartan 1 taste fifth (umami) 1, 2 and tongue 1 TATT (‘tired all the time’) syndrome 1 Tattersall, Ian 1 tautonyms 1 tea 1 tectonic plates 1 teeth, effect of fizzy drinks on 1 Telford 1 Telford, Thomas 1 temperature coldest recorded in England 1 country with widest range of 1 in oceans 1 on Titan 1 of water 1 Temple, Frederick 1 testosterone 1, 2, 3 Thames helmet 1 Thatcher, Margaret 1 Thing, The (film) 1 Thirty Years War 1 Thompson, Dr Peter 1 Thomsen, Christian Jürgensen 1 Three-Age System 1 3-D 1, 2 Thrombosis Institute 1 thujone 1 Tibet 1 tidal locking 1 tides, Mediterranean 1 Titan 1 titan (bank note) 1 Titanic 1 toe cleavage 1 toilet 1 see also lavatories Tokyo, Michelin stars 1 tongue swallowing of 1 and taste 1 tongue map 1 Tours, Battle of (732) 1 Towton, Battle of (1461) 1 trains 1 transient paraesthesia 1 Tre Skillin Yellow stamp 1 treasure maps 1 trees 1 Trehane, Sir Richard 1 Trollope, Anthony 1 troposphere 1, 2 Troy weight 1 tuberculosis 1, 2 Tuf Tuf Club 1 Tunisia 1 Turpin, Dick 1 Turritopsis nutricula 1 Twain, Mark 1, 2, 3 umami 1, 2 Unger, Donald L. 1 United States burning of American flags 1 constitution 1 electoral system 1 and English language 1 and First World War 1 Flag Code 1, 2 orange producer 1 Pins and Needles Day 1 plane crashes 1 Presidents of 1 and sinking of Lusitania 1 and ‘stiff upper lip’ term 1 toilet hygiene 1 use of gavel 1 weight of average citizen 1 Uranus 1 urine frozen 1 and treatment of jellyfish stings 1 US Embassy (Grosvenor Square) 1 Uys, Jamie 1 vampire bats 1 Varah, Chad 1 Vasari, Georgio 1, 2 Vatican 1, 2, 3 lowest age of consent 1 Venetian glass 1 Venezuela 1 ‘veni, vidi, vici’ phrase 1 Venus 1 Vermouth 1 Versailles, Treaty of 1 vertebrae 1 vertigo 1 Vertigo (film) 1 Viking helmet 1 Vin Mariani 1 vinegar, and jellyfish stings 1 Virgil, Aeneid 1 viruses 1 vision 1, 2 Vitamin A poisoning 1 Vitruvius 1 voles 1 von Baer, Karl Ernst 1 von Helmholtz, Hermann 1 von Hipper, Admiral Franz von 1 von Rosenhof, Johann Rösel 1 Vulgar Latin 1 Waksman, Selman 1 Wales 1 Walk, R.
Though studying medicine and divinity to please his father, he dismissed lectures as ‘cold, breakfastless hours, listening to discourses on the properties of rhubarb’. But he was also an enthusiastic amateur biologist and fossil-hunter and was keen to see the tropics, so he signed on as a ‘gentleman naturalist’ for HMS Beagle’s second survey expedition (1831–6). He almost didn’t get the job: the captain was keen on physiognomy and thought that Darwin’s nose indicated laziness. Charles later noted that ‘I think he was afterwards well satisfied that my nose had spoken falsely’. The story goes that, during the voyage, Darwin noticed that finches on different islands in the Galapagos had distinctive beaks, which led him to guess that each type had adapted for a specific habitat and evolved from a common ancestor.
Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work by Chip Heath, Dan Heath
call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Cass Sunstein, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, hindsight bias, index fund, job satisfaction, Kevin Kelly, loss aversion, medical residency, mental accounting, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, pets.com, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, salary depends on his not understanding it, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, unpaid internship, Upton Sinclair, US Airways Flight 1549, young professional
Suppose, as a far-fetched example, that a commercial airplane pilot plowed through a flock of Canadian geese, disabling his two engines and necessitating an emergency landing on a river. That impact would put huge, unexpected strain on the airplane wings. (This “far-fetched” example really happened, of course. In 2009, pilot Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger landed the plane safely in the Hudson River. Amazingly, no lives were lost, thanks to his skill and, also, the engineers’ safety factors!) In a more everyday example, engineers might compute, in designing a ladder, that it needed to be able to support 400 pounds, but then they’d multiply that number by a safety factor of, say, six.
This approach became a specialty of Captain D. Michael Abrashoff when he took over command of the USS Benfold, a guided-missile destroyer commissioned in 1996 for duty in the United States’ Pacific Fleet. As recounted in his book It’s Your Ship, one of Captain Abrashoff’s first moves was to interview every one of the 310 crew members on the ship. He learned their personal histories and their motivations for joining the navy, and he sought their opinions about the Benfold: What do you like most? Least? What would you change if you could? Drawing from those conversations, Captain Abrashoff sorted all the jobs performed on the Benfold into two lists: List A contained the mission-critical tasks, and List B contained the things that were important but not core, “the dreary, repetitive stuff, such as chipping and painting.”
Drawing from those conversations, Captain Abrashoff sorted all the jobs performed on the Benfold into two lists: List A contained the mission-critical tasks, and List B contained the things that were important but not core, “the dreary, repetitive stuff, such as chipping and painting.” After compiling the two lists, Captain Abrashoff declared war on List B. Perhaps the most dreaded task on List B was painting the ship, so Captain Abrashoff and his sailors hunted for ways to minimize the need for repainting. One sailor suggested replacing the ship’s ferrous-metal bolts—which streaked rust down the side of the ship, ruining the paint job—with stainless-steel bolts and nuts. Captain Abrashoff loved the idea, but his crew quickly hit a roadblock: The navy supply system didn’t stock stainless-steel bolts.
WTF?: What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us by Tim O'Reilly
4chan, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Alvin Roth, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Bill Joy: nanobots, bitcoin, blockchain, Bretton Woods, Brewster Kahle, British Empire, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computer vision, corporate governance, corporate raider, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, data acquisition, deskilling, DevOps, disinformation, Donald Davies, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Filter Bubble, Firefox, Flash crash, full employment, future of work, George Akerlof, gig economy, glass ceiling, Google Glasses, Gordon Gekko, gravity well, greed is good, Guido van Rossum, High speed trading, hiring and firing, Home mortgage interest deduction, Hyperloop, income inequality, independent contractor, index fund, informal economy, information asymmetry, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of movable type, invisible hand, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jitney, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, Kim Stanley Robinson, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, Lao Tzu, Larry Wall, Lean Startup, Leonard Kleinrock, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, McMansion, microbiome, microservices, minimum viable product, mortgage tax deduction, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, Oculus Rift, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, Paul Buchheit, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, Ponzi scheme, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Coase, Sam Altman, school choice, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, SETI@home, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Skype, smart contracts, Snapchat, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, social web, software as a service, software patent, spectrum auction, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, strong AI, TaskRabbit, telepresence, the built environment, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, the map is not the territory, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Davenport, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, trickle-down economics, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, ubercab, universal basic income, US Airways Flight 1549, VA Linux, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, Y Combinator, yellow journalism, zero-sum game, Zipcar
The app had already begun showing “trending topics” (using algorithms to detect common events even if they do not have the same hashtag), but hashtags added fuel to the fire. When photos were added to Twitter (again by an outside developer providing features that the platform developer itself hadn’t imagined), Twitter’s power to reveal the real-time pulse of the world increased even further. On January 15, 2009, four minutes after Captain “Sully” Sullenberger ditched US Airways Flight 1549 in the Hudson after multiple bird strikes had disabled the engines, Jim Hanrahan posted the first tweet. Janis Krums snapped an iPhone photo of passengers standing on the wing of the downed plane a few minutes later and shared it on Twitter via a third-party app called TwitPic, and it went worldwide long before the story appeared on the television news.
See also individual platforms “Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits” (Friedman), 240 software, 15, 35 continuous improvement process, 30, 119–21, 122 and DevOps, 121–23 generative design, 327–28 MapReduce, 325 as organizational structure, 113–19 Perl, 10–11, 15, 16–17, 120–21 programmers as managers of, 153–54 RegTech, 175 for scheduling employees or ICs, 193 See also Microsoft; open source software “Software Above the Level of a Single Device” (O’Reilly), 31 solar energy, 326–27 Solomon, Jake, 141–43 Sony, 351 Soros, George, 210, 236 South by Southwest conference, 148–49 Southwest Airlines, 48–49 Spafford, George, 122 Spence, Michael, 67 sports and rewriting rules, 266–67 Spotify, 116 “Spy Who Fired Me, The” (Kaplan), 193 SRE (Site Reliability Engineer), 123, 146–47 Stallman, Richard, 6, 71, 72 stand-up meetings, 118 Stanton, Brandon, 370–71, 372 startups, 41, 186, 247, 275, 279, 282–85, 316 Steinberg, Tom, 146 Stern, Andy, 305 Sternberg, Seth, 332–33 “Stevey’s Platform Rent” (Yegge), 111–13 Stiglitz, Joseph, 255, 261, 266, 272–73 stock buybacks, 242–44, 245, 256 stock options, 247, 279–80 Stoppard, Tom, xii Stout, Lynn, 292 Strickler, Yancey, 292 Strine, Leo, 292 structural literacy, 343–44 success as a by-product, 353. See also achievement Sullenberger, “Sully,” 43 Sullivan, Danny, 157–58, 214 Summers, Larry, 271 Summit on Technology and Opportunity, 269–70 Sun Microsystems, 125, 126 sun-tracking system for solar farms, 326–27 supermoney, 276–79, 280–84, 289 Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), 140–42, 266 Surely You’re Joking, Mr.
Note that Joshua Schachter had earlier used # as a symbol for tags in his link-saving site del.icio.us. 42 during the San Diego wildfires: Chris Messina, “Twitter Hashtags for Emergency Coordination and Disaster Relief,” retrieved March 29, 2017, https://factoryjoe.com/2007/10/22/twitter-hashtags-for-emergency-coordination-and-disaster-relief/. 42 The app had already begun showing “trending topics”: “To Trend or Not to Trend,” Twitter Blog, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://blog.twitter.com/2010/to-trend-or-not-to-trend. 43 features that the platform developer itself hadn’t imagined: “Twitpic,” retrieved March 29, 2017, https://en.wikipedia. org/wiki/TwitPic. 43 Jim Hanrahan posted the first tweet: Jim Hanrahan, Twitter update, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://twitter.com/highfours/status/1121908186. 43 passengers standing on the wing of the downed plane: “There’s a plane in the Hudson. I’m on the ferry going to pick up the people. Crazy.” Twitter update, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://twitter.com/jkrums/status/1121915133. 43 “We Are All Khaled Said”: Facebook page, retrieved March 29, 2017, https://www.facebook.com/ElShaheeed. 43 “an internal life of its own”: Michael Nielsen, Reinventing Discovery (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011), 53. 44 “A theory is a species of thinking”: Thomas Henry Huxley, “The Coming of Age of ‘The Origin of Species,’” Collected Essays, vol. 2, as reprinted at http://aleph0.clarku.edu/huxley/CE2/CaOS.html. 45 “the way a genome runs on a multitude of cells”: George Dyson, Turing’s Cathedral (New York: Pantheon, 2012), 238–39. 46 income that it can’t deliver: Sami Jarbawi, “Uber to Pay $20 Million to Settle FTC Case,” Berkeley Center for Law, Business and the Economy, January 31, 2017, http://sites.law.berkeley. edu/thenetwork/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/01/Uber-to-Pay-20-Million-to-Settle-FTC-Case.pdf. 46 technology to deflect their investigations: Mike Isaac, “How Uber Deceives the Authorities Worldwide,” New York Times, March 3, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/03/technology/uber-greyball-program-evade-authorities.html. 47 Rivals sue over claims of stolen technology: Alex Davies, “Google’s Lawsuit Against Uber Revolves Around Frickin’ Lasers,” Wired, February 5, 2017, https://www.wired.com/2017/02/googles-lawsuit-uber-revolves-around-frickin-lasers/. 47 tolerates sexual harassment: Susan J.
Late Bloomers: The Power of Patience in a World Obsessed With Early Achievement by Rich Karlgaard
Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Bernie Madoff, Bob Noyce, Brownian motion, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, experimental economics, fear of failure, financial independence, follow your passion, Frederick Winslow Taylor, hiring and firing, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, meta-analysis, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, Sand Hill Road, science of happiness, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, sunk-cost fallacy, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, Toyota Production System, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce, working poor
The Southwest jet, its pressurization compromised by the shattered window, dived from 31,000 feet to 10,000 feet in less than five minutes; passengers were screaming and throwing up. When Captain Shults safely landed the plane, the world’s press hailed her for her calm demeanor and “nerves of steel” throughout the midair emergency. She was compared to Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, the US Airways pilot who landed a packed commercial jet on the Hudson River after hitting a flock of birds, disabling both engines. Captain Shults was fifty-six when she managed her feat of calm bravado. Sully was fifty-eight. Their stories illustrate another late bloomer strength.
I would argue that quitting was the best possible option for young Dan Brown. By saying no to the expectations of others, including his parents, he set his life on a much healthier track. Later in life, Brown performed another defiant act of quitting. In doing so, he had to abandon his father’s expectations: My brother had been a captain in the Air Force. Then he went to law school, became a law professor. I was teaching part-time composition classes at San Jose State—barely able to pay my rent. That’s when my father died. He must have gone to his death wondering, Is Dan ever going to amount to anything? Not that my father was a person who really measured people that way.
tend to be self-centered: Henry Bodkin, “Teenagers Are Hard Wired to Be Selfish, Say Scientists,” Telegraph, October 6, 2016, http://bit.ly/2CQVh08. “brittle”: Carol Dweck, interview by author, August 2016. This Tammie Jo grew up on a ranch: The amazing story of Southwest Airlines pilot Captain Tammie Jo Shults was widely reported following the catastrophic engine failure and depressurization of Flight 1380, en route to Philadelphia, on April 17, 2018. As starting points, I recommend Eli Rosenberg, “She Landed a Southwest Plane After an Engine Exploded. She Wasn’t Supposed to Be Flying That Day,” Washington Post, May 10, 2018.
Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought by Andrew W. Lo
"Robert Solow", Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, algorithmic trading, Andrei Shleifer, Arthur Eddington, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, asset-backed security, backtesting, bank run, barriers to entry, Bear Stearns, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Bonfire of the Vanities, bonus culture, break the buck, Brownian motion, business cycle, business process, butterfly effect, buy and hold, capital asset pricing model, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Carmen Reinhart, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computerized trading, corporate governance, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Diane Coyle, diversification, diversified portfolio, double helix, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Ernest Rutherford, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, Flash crash, Fractional reserve banking, framing effect, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, Henri Poincaré, high net worth, housing crisis, incomplete markets, index fund, interest rate derivative, invention of the telegraph, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Meriwether, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, martingale, merger arbitrage, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, money market fund, moral hazard, Myron Scholes, Nick Leeson, old-boy network, out of africa, p-value, paper trading, passive investing, Paul Lévy, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, predatory finance, prediction markets, price discovery process, profit maximization, profit motive, quantitative hedge fund, quantitative trading / quantitative ﬁnance, RAND corporation, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Sam Peltzman, Savings and loan crisis, Shai Danziger, short selling, sovereign wealth fund, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanford prison experiment, statistical arbitrage, Steven Pinker, stochastic process, stocks for the long run, survivorship bias, Thales and the olive presses, The Great Moderation, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, too big to fail, transaction costs, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, ultimatum game, Upton Sinclair, US Airways Flight 1549, Walter Mischel, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game
Despite the extraordinary complexity of determining the causes of a plane crash, the NTSB manages to communicate a definitive narrative that satisfies all stakeholders, not just those with specialized knowledge. A case in point is the water landing of USAir Flight 1549, piloted by Captain Chesley Sullenberger, in the Hudson River on January 15, 2009. Given the history of terrorist acts in New York over the years, you can imagine how New Yorkers might have reacted to an airplane crash landing within walking (or swimming) distance of the financial district. But that very afternoon, the NTSB issued a statement that, pending more detailed investigation, the initial best guess as to what happened was a bird strike that shut down both engines of Flight 1549.
., 100 Sobel, Russell, 206 social Darwinism, 215 social exclusion, 85–86 social media, 55, 270, 405 Société Générale, 60–61 Society of Mind, The (Minsky), 132–133 sociobiology, 170–174, 216–217 Sociobiology (Wilson), 170–171 Solow, Herbert, 395 Soros, George, 6, 219, 222–223, 224, 227, 234, 244, 277 sovereign wealth funds, 230, 299, 409–410 Soviet Union, 411 Space Shuttle Challenger, 12–16, 24, 38 specialization, 217 speech synthesis, 132 Sperry, Roger, 113–114 “spoofing,” 360 Springer, James, 159 SR-52 programmable calculator, 357 stagflation, 37 Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk (SPAN), 369–370 Stanton, Angela, 338 starfish, 192, 242 Star Trek, 395–397, 411, 414 stationarity, 253–255, 279, 282 statistical arbitrage (“statarb”), 284, 286, 288–291, 292–293, 362 statistical tests, 47 Steenbarger, Brett, 94 Stein, Carolyn, 69 sterilization, 171, 174 Stiglitz, Joseph, 224, 278, 310 Stocks for the Long Run (Siegel), 253 stock splits, 24, 47 Stone, Oliver, 346 Stone Age, 150, 163, 165 stone tools, 150–151, 153 stop-loss orders, 359 Strasberg, Lee, 105 stress, 3, 75, 93, 101, 122, 160–161, 346, 413–415 strong connectedness, 374 Strong Story Hypothesis, 133 Strumpf, Koleman, 39 “stub quotes,” 360 subjective value, 100 sublenticular extended amygdala, 89 subprime mortgages, 290, 292, 293, 297, 321, 327, 376, 377, 410 Sugihara, George, 366 suicide, 160 Sullenberger, Chesley, 381 Summers, Lawrence (Larry), 50, 315–316, 319–320, 379 sunlight, 108 SuperDot (trading system), 236 supply and demand curves, 29, 30, 31–33, 34 Surowiecki, James, 5, 16 survey research, 40 Sussman, Donald, 237–238 swaps, 243, 298, 300 Swedish Twin Registry, 161 systematic bias, 56 systematic risk, 194, 199–203, 204, 205, 250–251, 348, 389 systemic risk, 319; Bank of England’s measurement of, 366–367; government as source of, 361; in hedge fund industry, 291, 317; of large vs. small shocks, 315; managing, 370–371, 376–378, 387; transparency of, 384–385; trust linked to, 344 Takahashi, Hidehiko, 86 Tanner, Carmen, 353 Tanzania, 150 Tartaglia, Nunzio, 236 Tattersall, Ian, 150, 154 Tech Bubble, 40 telegraphy, 356 Tennyson, Alfred, Baron, 144 testosterone, 108, 337–338 Texas hold ’em, 59–60 Texas Instruments, 357, 384 Thackray, John, 234 Thales, 16 Théorie de la Spéculation (Bachelier), 19 theory of mind, 109–111 thermal homeostasis, 367–368, 370 This Time Is Different (Reinhart and Rogoff), 310 Thompson, Robert, 1, 81–82, 83, 103–104 three-body problem, 214 ticker tape machine, 356 tight coupling, 321, 322, 361, 372Tiger Fund, 234 Tinker, Grant, 395 Tobin tax, 245 Tokugawa era, 17 Tooby, John, 173, 174 tool use, 150–151, 153, 162, 165 “toxic assets,” 299 trade execution, 257, 356 trade secrets, 284–285, 384 trading volume, 257, 359 transactions tax, 245 Treynor, Jack, 263 trial and error, 133, 141, 142, 182, 183, 188, 198, 265 Triangle Shirtwaist Fire, 378–379 tribbles, 190–205, 216 Trivers, Robert, 172 trolley dilemma, 339 Trusty, Jessica, 120 Tversky, Amos, 55, 58, 66–67, 68–69, 70–71, 90, 106, 113, 388 TWA Flight 800, 84–85 twins, 159, 161, 348 “two-legged goat effect,” 155 UBS, 61 Ultimatum Game, 336–338 uncertainty, 212, 218; risk vs., 53–55, 415 unemployment, 36–37 unintended consequences, 7, 248, 269, 330, 358, 375 United Kingdom, 222–223, 242, 377 University of Chicago, 22 uptick rule, 233 Urbach-Wiethe disease, 82–83 U.S.
Spock could ask the Enterprise questions and be answered by the voice of Majel Barrett, Gene Roddenberry’s wife; today, we have Siri, Cortana, and Alexa to answer everyday questions about enterprises of our own. When we get home, we can sit in our ergonomic chair as we watch the world’s events on our widescreen television while scrolling through a touchpad, just like Captain Kirk. About the only thing missing is the photon torpedoes. The one aspect of modern life that Star Trek spent no time on was finance. This didn’t occur to me until fairly recently since, as a child, I had no inkling of or interest in finance. But after watching one of the recent Star Trek films, I started to wonder what the finance of the future might look like.
Crash of the Titans: Greed, Hubris, the Fall of Merrill Lynch, and the Near-Collapse of Bank of America by Greg Farrell
Airbus A320, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, bank run, banking crisis, Bear Stearns, bonus culture, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, compensation consultant, corporate governance, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, financial innovation, fixed income, glass ceiling, high net worth, Long Term Capital Management, mass affluent, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Nelson Mandela, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ronald Reagan, six sigma, sovereign wealth fund, technology bubble, too big to fail, US Airways Flight 1549, yield curve
A few hours earlier, a Charlotte-bound U.S. Airways flight experienced engine trouble after taking off from LaGuardia Airport in New York. The captain, Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, made a split-second decision to ditch the airplane, an Airbus A320, in the Hudson River rather than take a chance on being able to get back to an airport. More than a dozen BofA employees were on the flight, heading back to Charlotte after a four-day workweek in New York. Miraculously, the plane landed intact on the Hudson and stayed afloat for hours, allowing rescue teams to get everyone out alive. Lewis assured the board that everyone was safe and out of harm’s way, and then began describing the final details of the government rescue package, which had been firmed up that week.
Smith was flattered by the praise, especially since it came from a man who did so much to put O’Neal into the CEO’s chair in the first place. THERE WAS ONE OTHER contrast Thain would draw between himself and O’Neal, and it involved his predecessor’s corner office on the thirty-second floor, with a commanding view of the Statue of Liberty, New York Harbor, and the Hudson River. The first time he saw the décor of O’Neal’s office Thain cringed reflexively, and couldn’t imagine receiving the firm’s most important clients and investors there. He had been particular about his office at Goldman Sachs, to the point of paying for special furnishings out of his own pocket.
Kraus, with piercing blue eyes and a neatly trimmed beard, donned pink and lavender shirts as well as ties sporting splashy colors and patterns. He wore plaid suits and a wristwatch that looked like it had come from the Museum of Modern Art. Just as he had transformed his office into a stunning aerie high above New York Harbor and the Hudson River, he also lavished great care and attention on his own presentation and appearance. He looked more like the creative director of a large advertising agency than an investment banker. The women who worked directly for Thain—Margaret Tutwiler and May Lee—admired their boss’s fierce intellect, but were absolutely taken with Kraus’s presence.
Against All Enemies by Tom Clancy, Peter Telep
airport security, augmented reality, back-to-the-land, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, illegal immigration, independent contractor, Iridium satellite, low earth orbit, Pepto Bismol, US Airways Flight 1549
If they attempted to turn without sufficient power, they’d very quickly lose altitude. Pilots of single-engine aircraft were instructed to never, ever, attempt to return to the runway, because they would lose too much altitude to effect the turnaround. Case in point: On January 15, 2009, Captain Chesley Sullenberger was in command of US Airways Flight 1549 en route from La Guardia to Charlotte. He had lifted off and flown through a flock of birds, resulting in the loss of both engines. He knew he’d lose precious altitude if he started a turnaround with no engines producing power, and determined that his best course of action was to ditch in the river.
(Ret.) and Tony Koltz Every Man a Tiger: The Gulf War Air Campaign with General Chuck Horner (Ret.) and Tony Koltz Shadow Warriors: Inside the Special Forces with General Carl Stiner (Ret.) and Tony Koltz AGAINST ALL ENEMIES TOM CLANCY with PETER TELEP G. P. PUTNAM’S SONS NEW YORK G. P. PUTNAM’S SONS PUBLISHERS SINCE 1838 Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, USA • Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario M4P 2Y3, Canada (a division of Pearson Penguin Canada Inc.) • Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England • Penguin Ireland, 25 St Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) • Penguin Group (Australia), 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) • Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi–110 017, India • Penguin Group (NZ), 67 Apollo Drive, Rosedale, North Shore 0632, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) • Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank, Johannesburg 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offices: 80 Strand, London WC2R 0RL, England Copyright © 2011 by Rubicon, Inc.
As the shadow drew closer, the men on the deck shouted to one another and got to work readying the lines. The shadow rose from the water, taking on a mottled pattern of blue, gray, and black, and then, with seawater washing off its sides, it fully broke the surface … A submarine. The vessel glided alongside them, and Ballesteros cried out to the captain, who was rising into the hatch, “This time, I’m coming along for the ride!” The sub was diesel electric-powered, thirty-one meters long, and nearly three meters high from deck plates to ceiling. It was constructed of fiberglass and could cut through the water via twin screws at more than twenty kilometers per hour, even while carrying up to ten tons of cocaine.