The Future of Employment

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pages: 179 words: 43,441

The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab

3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, clean water, collaborative consumption, commoditize, conceptual framework, continuous integration, crowdsourcing, digital twin, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, global value chain, Google Glasses, income inequality, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of the steam engine, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, life extension, Lyft, mass immigration, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, more computing power than Apollo, mutually assured destruction, Narrative Science, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, personalized medicine, precariat, precision agriculture, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, reshoring, RFID, rising living standards, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, software as a service, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, supercomputer in your pocket, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, The Spirit Level, total factor productivity, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y Combinator, Zipcar

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/abundance-without-living-standards-growth-by-j--bradford-delong-2015-02 22 John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren” in Essays in Persuasion, Harcourt Brace, 1931. 23 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, University of Oxford, 17 September 2013. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf 24 Shelley Podolny, “If an Algorithm Wrote This, How Would You Even Know?”, The New York Times, 7 March 2015 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/opinion/sunday/if-an-algorithm-wrote-this-how-would-you-even-know.html?_r=0 25 Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots, Basic Books, 2015. 26 Daniel Pink, Free Agent Nation – The Future of Working for Yourself, Grand Central Publishing, 2001. 27 Quoted in: Farhad Manjoo, “Uber’s business model could change your work”, The New York Times, 28 January 2015. 28 Quoted in: Sarah O’Connor, “The human cloud: A new world of work”, The Financial Times, 8 October 2015. 29 Lynda Gratton, The Shift: The Future of Work is Already Here, Collins, 2011. 30 R.

, Sisense, 29 July 2015. http://www.sisense.com/blog/much-data-will-3-years/ 90 Moore’s Law generally states that processor speeds, or the overall number of transistors in a central processing unit, will double every two years. 91 Kevin Mayer, Keith Ellis and Ken Taylor, “Cattle Health Monitoring Using Wireless Sensor Networks”, Proceedings of the Communication and Computer Networks Conference, Cambridge, MA, USA, 2004. http://www.academia.edu/781755/Cattle_health_monitoring_using_wireless_sensor_networks 92 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 17 September 2013. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf 93 Will Knight, “This Robot Could Transform Manufacturing,” MIT Technology Review, 18 September 2012. http://www.technologyreview.com/news/429248/this-robotcould-transform-manufacturing/ 94 See http://www.stratasys.com/. 95 Dan Worth, “Business use of 3D printing is years ahead of consumer uptake”, V3.co.uk, 19 August 2014.

An Oxford Martin School study92 looked into the susceptibility of jobs to computerization from AI and robotics, and came up with some sobering results. Their model predicted that up to 47% of US jobs in 2010 were highly likely to become computerized in the next 10-20 years (Figure V). Figure V: Distribution of US Occupational Employment* over the Probability of Computerization * Distribution based on 2010 job mix. Source: Frey, C.B. and M.A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 17 September 2013 Positive impacts – Cost reductions – Efficiency gains – Unlocking innovation, opportunities for small business, start-ups (smaller barriers to entry, “software as a service” for everything) Negative impacts – Job losses – Accountability and liability – Change to legal, financial disclosure, risk – Job automation (refer to the Oxford Martin study) The shift in action Advances in automation were reported on by FORTUNE: “IBM’s Watson, well known for its stellar performance in the TV game show Jeopardy!


pages: 626 words: 167,836

The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation by Carl Benedikt Frey

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, business cycle, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Clayton Christensen, collective bargaining, computer age, computer vision, Corn Laws, creative destruction, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, demographic transition, desegregation, deskilling, Donald Trump, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, factory automation, falling living standards, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, full employment, future of work, game design, Gini coefficient, Hyperloop, income inequality, income per capita, industrial cluster, industrial robot, intangible asset, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, invention of agriculture, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invention of the wheel, Isaac Newton, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, job satisfaction, job-hopping, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, labour mobility, Loebner Prize, low skilled workers, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, manufacturing employment, mass immigration, means of production, Menlo Park, minimum wage unemployment, natural language processing, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, oil shock, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, pink-collar, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, Renaissance Technologies, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, social intelligence, speech recognition, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, trade route, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Turing test, union organizing, universal basic income, washing machines reduced drudgery, wealth creators, women in the workforce, working poor, zero-sum game

Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson, forthcoming, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox.” 21. See C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne, 2017, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (C): 254–80. 22. B. Mathibela, M. A. Osborne, I. Posner, and P. Newman, 2012, “Can Priors Be Trusted? Learning to Anticipate Roadworks,” in IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 927–32. 23. B. Mathibela, P. Newman, and I. Posner, 2015, “Reading the Road: Road Marking Classification and Interpretation,” IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems 16 (4): 2080. 24. See C. B. Frey and Osborne, 2017, “The Future of Employment.” 25. Rio Tinto, 2017, “Rio Tinto to Expand Autonomous Fleet as Part of $5 Billion Productivity Drive,” December 18, http://www.riotinto.com/media/media-releases-237_23802.aspx. 26.

,” in Management and the Corporation, ed. M. L. Anshen and G. L. Bach (New York: McGraw-Hill), 17–55. 48. T. Malthus, [1798] 2013, An Essay on the Principle of Population, Digireads. com, Kindle, 179. 49. C. B. Frey and Osborne, 2017, “The Future of Employment,” 262. 50. The O*NET database contains hundreds of standardized and occupation-specific descriptors for occupations covering the U.S. economy. For a list of occupations involving “originality,” see O*NET OnLine, 2018, “Find Occupations: Abilities—Originality,” https://www.onetonline.org/find/descriptor/result/1.A.1.b.2. 51. C. B. Frey and Osborne, 2017, “The Future of Employment,” 262. 52. These descriptions stem from large-scale surveys of the American workforce, in which workers are asked how often they engage in various tasks. Their responses form part of O*NET OnLine database. 53.

The operator at the other end was a young woman, who at once struck up a spirited discussion of the latest development in Theosophic Buddhism. Her voice was not so much raised as in ordinary talking, and its expressiveness was perfect.”45 The Next Wave More and more jobs lend themselves to automation. But anecdotes alone cannot tell us much about the extent to which jobs will be replaced in the future, or the types of job that will be affected. So in a 2013 paper titled “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” my Oxford University colleague Michael Osborne and I set out to identify the near-term engineering bottlenecks to automation as a way of estimating the exposure of current jobs to recent advances in AI. As noted above, until recently, computers had a comparative advantage in tasks involving routine rule-based activities, while humans did better at everything else.


pages: 742 words: 137,937

The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts by Richard Susskind, Daniel Susskind

23andMe, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, AI winter, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, Andrew Keen, Atul Gawande, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, Bill Joy: nanobots, business process, business process outsourcing, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, Clapham omnibus, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer age, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, death of newspapers, disintermediation, Douglas Hofstadter, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Filter Bubble, full employment, future of work, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Hacker Ethic, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, James Hargreaves, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, lifelogging, lump of labour, Marshall McLuhan, Metcalfe’s law, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Network effects, optical character recognition, Paul Samuelson, personalized medicine, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, semantic web, Shoshana Zuboff, Skype, social web, speech recognition, spinning jenny, strong AI, supply-chain management, telepresence, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, Turing test, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, young professional

See <http://www.ibras.dk/montypython/episode10.htm> (accessed 8 March 2015). 253 ‘2012 Annual Report to Congress—Volume 1’, Taxpayer Advocate Service at the IRS, 9 January 2013 <http://www.taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/2012-Annual-Report/FY-2012-Annual-Report-To-Congress-Full-Report.html> (accessed 8 March 2015). 254 <https://turbotax.intuit.com/>, <http://www.hrblock.com>, <http://www.taxact.com>. 255 These were 47,946,000 self-prepared e-filing receipts, 125,821,000 total e-filing receipts, and 149,684,000 total individual income tax returns (online and paper). ‘2014 Filing Season Statistics’, IRS, 26 December 2014 <http://www.irs.gov/uac/Dec-26-2014> (accessed 27 March 2015). 256 <https://ttlc.intuit.com/>, <http://community.hrblock.com/>. 257 <http://quickbooks.intuit.com>, <https://www.xero.com/>, <http://www.kashflow.com>. 258 See HM Revenue & Customs, ‘Making Tax Easier’, March 2015, <https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/413975/making-tax-easier.pdf> (accessed 14 March 2015). 259 ‘Record to report cycle—tax compliance and reporting’, Deloitte, 2014, <https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Tax/dttl-tax-tmc-technology-landscape-2014.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 260 ‘European VAT refund guide 2014’, Deloitte Global Tax Center (Europe), 2014 <http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Tax/dttl-tax-vat-refund-guide-gtce-2014.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 261 ‘Electronic Arm Twisting’, Economist, 17 May 2014. 262 Elisabetta Povoledo, ‘Italians Have a New Tool to Unearth Tax Cheats’, New York Times, 27 Jan. 2013 <http://www.nytimes.com> (accessed 8 March 2015). 263 Reed Albergotte, ‘IRS, States Call on IBM, LexisNexis, SAS to Fight Fraud’, Wall Street Journal, 22 July 2013 <http://www.wsj.com> (accessed 8 March 2015). 264 Abbi Hobbs, ‘Big Data, Crime and Security’, Houses of Parliament Postnote no. 470, July 2014 <http://www.parliament.uk> (accessed 8 March 2015). 265 Lucy Warwick-Ching and Vanessa Houlder, ‘Ten Ways HMRC Checks if You’re Cheating’, Financial Times, 16 Nov. 2012 <http://www.ft.com> (accessed 8 March 2015). 266 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation’, 17 Sept. 2013 <http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf> (accessed 23 March 2015). 267 ‘2012 Annual Report to Congress—Volume 1’, Taxpayer Advocate Service at the IRS, 9 January 2013 <http://www.taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/2012-Annual-Report/FY-2012-Annual-Report-To-Congress-Full-Report.html> (accessed 8 March 2015). 268 See Richard Susskind, Expert Systems in Law (1987), 208–13. 269 ‘Key Facts and Trends in the Accountancy Profession’, Financial Reporting Council, June 2014 <https://www.frc.org.uk/Our-Work/Publications/FRC-Board/Key-Facts-and-Trends-in-the-Accountancy-Profession.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 270 ‘Our Audit Methodology’, KPMG, <https://www.kpmg.com/eg/en/services/audit/pages/ourauditmethodology.aspx> (accessed 8 March 2015), ‘Transparency Report 2014’, EY Global, <http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-Global-Transparency-Report-2014/%20$FILE/EY-Global-Transparency-Report-2014.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 271 ‘Transparency Report: Building trust through assurance’, PwC UK, 30 June 2014 <http://www.pwc.co.uk/en_UK/uk/transparencyreport/assets/pdf/transparency-report-fy14.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 272 John C.

An updated version of their thinking is found in ‘Dancing with Robots’ (2013), at <http://content.thirdway.org/publications/714/Dancing-With-Robots.pdf> (accessed 25 March 2015). 36 What we say here is consistent with the observation by Frey and Osborne, in a much-discussed paper, that ‘Computer capital can now equally substitute for a wide range of tasks commonly defined as non-routine.’ See Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation’, 17 Sept. 2013 <http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf> (accessed 23 March 2015). 37 Garrett Hardin, ‘The Tragedy of the Commons’, Science, 162: 3859 (1968), 1243–8. 38 Jeremy Rifkin, The Zero Marginal Cost Society (2014). 39 Yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks (2006), 153. 40 Benkler, The Wealth of Networks, 221–2. 41 Carol Rose, ‘The Comedy of the Commons: Commerce, Custom, and Inherently Public Property’, University of Chicago Law Review, 53: 3 (1986), 711–81.

.), The Professionals’ Choice (London: Building Futures, 2003). Frame, Alex, Salmond: Southern Jurist (Wellington: Victoria University Press, 1995). Freidson, Eliot, Professional Powers, paperback edn. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988). Freidson, Eliot, Professionalism, 3rd edn. (Oxford: Polity Press, 2001). Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation’, 17 Sept. 2013 <http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf> (accessed 23 March 2015). Friedman, Thomas, The World is Flat, updated and expanded edn. (London: Penguin, 2006). Frizell, Sam, ‘Meet the Robots Shipping Your Amazon Orders’, Time, 1 Dec. 2014 <http://time.com/3605924/amazon-robots/> (accessed 23 March 2015). Furlong, Jordan, ‘The New World of Legal Work’, published online, 2014 <http://www.lod.co.uk/media/pdfs/The_New_World_Of_Legal_Digital_Download.pdf> (accessed 28 March 2015).


pages: 252 words: 74,167

Thinking Machines: The Inside Story of Artificial Intelligence and Our Race to Build the Future by Luke Dormehl

Ada Lovelace, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Albert Einstein, Alexey Pajitnov wrote Tetris, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Apple II, artificial general intelligence, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, book scanning, borderless world, call centre, cellular automata, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, computer vision, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, drone strike, Elon Musk, Flash crash, friendly AI, game design, global village, Google X / Alphabet X, hive mind, industrial robot, information retrieval, Internet of things, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, Loebner Prize, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, natural language processing, Norbert Wiener, out of africa, PageRank, pattern recognition, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, remote working, RFID, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, social intelligence, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Future of Employment, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, Turing machine, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!

, Dialectica, Vol. 4, no. 3, 1950. 8 ‘Google’s Self-Driving Car in Five-Car Crash’, Mountain View Voice, 8 August 2011. 9 Black, Thomas, ‘Google Sees Automated Flight Going “All the Way” to airlines’, Bloomberg, 5 May 2015: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015–05-05/google-sees-automated-flight-going-all-the-way-to-airliners 10 Frey, Carl and Osborne, Michael, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’, Oxford Martin School, 17 September 2013: fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/The-Future-of-Employment-How-Susceptible-Are-Jobs-to-Computerization.pdf 11 Wile, Rob, ‘A Venture Capital Firm Just Named an Algorithm to Its Board Of Directors – Here’s What It Actually Does’, Business Insider, 13 May 2015: businessinsider.com/vital-named-to-board-2014–5?IR=Thttp://www.businessinsider.com/vital-named-to-board-2014–5?IR=T 12 Kellenbenz, Herman, ‘Technology in the Age of the Scientific Revolution, 1500–1700,’ in C.M.

En route, we will meet computers pretending to trap paedophiles, dancing robot vacuum cleaners, chess-playing algorithms, and uploaded consciousnesses designed to speak to you from beyond the grave. This is the story of how we imagine our future, and how in a world obsessed with technology, we carve out a role for humanity in the face of accelerating computer intelligence. It’s about the nature of creativity, the future of employment, and what happens when all knowledge is data and can be stored electronically. It’s about what we’re trying to do when we make machines smarter than we are, how humans still have the edge (for now), and the question of whether you and I aren’t thinking machines of a sort as well. The pioneering British mathematician and computer scientist Alan Turing predicted in 1950 that by the end of the twentieth century, ‘the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted’.

A Robot Symphony There is a wonderful scene in the 2004 movie, I, Robot, in which the protagonist, played by Will Smith, has a conversation about computational creativity. ‘Can a robot write a symphony?’ he asks. ‘Can a robot turn a canvas into a beautiful masterpiece?’ The robot with whom he is conversing deflects the question by asking, ‘Can you?’ At first glance, asking if a machine can be creative isn’t a matter of particular importance. Compared to some of the other issues addressed in this book – the future of employment or artificially intelligent medicine – it’s easy to think of it as downright minor. It’s the kind of question that two software engineers at Google might casually chat about over beers on a Friday afternoon. In fact, artificial creativity is one of the most important issues faced in AI. Questioning whether Google’s Deep Dream project is art may not be of interest to everyone, but the other implications of creativity are enormously significant.


pages: 95 words: 6,448

Mending the Net: Toward Universal Basic Incomes by Chris Oestereich

basic income, en.wikipedia.org, future of work, profit motive, rent-seeking, The Future of Employment, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, universal basic income

[7] Pezzini, M, 2012, “An emerging middle class,” http://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3681/An_emerging_middle_class.html. [8] Pizzigati, S, 2012, “America’s Rich: Pulling Away,” http://inequality.org/americas-rich-pulling/. [9] Bremmer, I, 2016, “These 5 Facts Explain the Unstable Global Middle Class,” http://time.com/4198164/these-5-facts-explain-the-unstable-global-middle-class/. [10] Benedikt Frey, C, and Osborne, M, 2013, “The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?,” http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. [11] Dickerson, M, 2016, “Is the American Dream dead?” https://theconversation.com/is-the-american-dream-dead-57095. [12] Davis, A, and Mishel, L, 2014, “CEO Pay Continues to Rise as Typical Workers Are Paid Less,” http://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-continues-to-rise/. [13] Proctor, B, Semega, J, and Kollar, M, 2016, “Income and Poverty in the United States: 2015 - Current Population Reports,” http.s://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p60-256.pdf, 9


pages: 484 words: 104,873

Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future by Martin Ford

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AI winter, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, artificial general intelligence, assortative mating, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bernie Madoff, Bill Joy: nanobots, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Chris Urmson, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computer age, creative destruction, debt deflation, deskilling, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, Erik Brynjolfsson, factory automation, financial innovation, Flash crash, Fractional reserve banking, Freestyle chess, full employment, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Gunnar Myrdal, High speed trading, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, informal economy, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, Khan Academy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, liquidity trap, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, McJob, moral hazard, Narrative Science, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, obamacare, optical character recognition, passive income, Paul Samuelson, performance metric, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post scarcity, precision agriculture, price mechanism, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, rent-seeking, reshoring, RFID, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, Sam Peltzman, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, single-payer health, software is eating the world, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, stealth mode startup, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, strong AI, Stuxnet, technological singularity, telepresence, telepresence robot, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Future of Employment, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, uber lyft, union organizing, Vernor Vinge, very high income, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce

On Canadian median wages and unionization, see Miles Corak, “The Simple Economics of the Declining Middle Class—and the Not So Simple Politics,” Economics for Public Policy Blog, August 7, 2013, http://milescorak.com/2013/08/07/the-simple-economics-of-the-declining-middle-class-and-the-not-so-simple-politics/, and “Unions on Decline in Private Sector,” CBC News Canada, September 2, 2012, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/unions-on-decline-in-private-sector-1.1150562. 59. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, p. 38, http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. 60. Paul Krugman, “Robots and Robber Barons,” New York Times, December 9, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/10/opinion/krugman-robots-and-robber-barons.html?gwh=054BD73AB17F28CD31B3999AABFD7E86; Jeffrey D. Sachs and Laurence J. Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 18629, issued in December 2012, http://www.nber.org/papers/w18629.pdf.

Blinder, “Free Trade’s Great, but Offshoring Rattles Me,” Washington Post, May 6, 2007, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/04/AR2007050402555.html. 49. Blinder, “Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution?” 50. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, p. 38, http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. 51. Alan S. Blinder, “On the Measurability of Offshorability,” VOX, October 9, 2009, http://www.voxeu.org/article/twenty-five-percent-us-jobs-are-offshorable. 52. Keith Bradsher, “Chinese Graduates Say No Thanks to Factory Jobs,” New York Times, January 24, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/business/as-graduates-rise-in-china-office-jobs-fail-to-keep-up.html; Keith Bradsher, “Faltering Economy in China Dims Job Prospects for Graduates,” New York Times, June 16, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/17/business/global/faltering-economy-in-china-dims-job-prospects-for-graduates.html?

., based on Table 15, p. 39; see the row labeled “Joint & Survivor, Male 65 and Female 60, 100% Survivor Income-Life Annuity.” An alternate plan with a 3 percent annual increase starts at just $3,700 (or about $300 per month). 31. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, p. 38, http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. 32. For China population figures, see Deirdre Wang Morris, “China’s Aging Population Threatens Its Manufacturing Might,” CNBC, October 24, 2012, http://www.cnbc.com/id/49498720 and “World Population Ageing 2013,” United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, p. 32, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WorldPopulationAgeing2013.pdf. 33.


Free Money for All: A Basic Income Guarantee Solution for the Twenty-First Century by Mark Walker

3D printing, 8-hour work day, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, commoditize, financial independence, full employment, happiness index / gross national happiness, industrial robot, intangible asset, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, laissez-faire capitalism, longitudinal study, market clearing, means of production, new economy, obamacare, off grid, plutocrats, Plutocrats, precariat, profit motive, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, RFID, Rodney Brooks, Rosa Parks, science of happiness, Silicon Valley, surplus humans, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, transaction costs, universal basic income, working poor

However, the Kura chain demonstrates the dispensability of much of the labor of busboys, and robotic lawn motors are busy today replacing the labor of human gardeners. The most detailed and methodologically sound investigation of the issue I know of can be found in Frey and Osborne (2013). They identify 702 distinct occupations in the US work force and have found that “about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk” Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Retrieved September 7 (2013). http:// assets.careerspot.com.au/files/news/The_Future_of_Employment_ OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. Keith Wagstaff, “How Foxconn’s Million-Machine ‘Robot Kingdom’ Will Change the Face of Manufacturing,” Time, 2011, http://techland.time.com/2011/11/09/how-foxconns-million-machine-robotkingdom-will-change-the-face-of-manufacturing/. Bien Perez, “Hon Hai Plan to Deploy 1m Robots Faces Delay, Says Analyst,” South China Morning Post, 2012, http://www.scmp.com/ business/companies/article/1052557/hon-hai-plan-deploy-1mrobots-faces-delay-says-analyst.

Feldman, F. What Is This Thing Called Happiness?. New York: Oxford University Press, 2010. Frankfurt, Harry G. Freedom of the Will and the Concept of a Person. Clifton, NJ: Springer, 1988. Frey, Bruno S. Happiness: A Revolution in Economics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2008. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Retrieved September, 2013. http://assets.careerspot.com.au/files/news/The_Future_of_ Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. Friedman, Milton. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962. Friedman, Milton, and Rose Friedman. Free to Choose: A Personal Statement. Harcourt: Houghton Mifflin, 1990. Gannor, Megan Gannon. News, “3D Printer Could Transform Moon Dirt Into Lunar Base.” Space.com. Accessed May 18, 2015. http://www.space. com/18694-moon-dirt-3d-printing-lunar-base.html.

Still, there is reason to believe that official unemployment rate figures are hardly decisive evidence that the gains in productivity have not negatively affected the labor market. NOTES 225 27. Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008). This passage is quoted in Brynjolfsson and McAfee, Race against the Machine. 28. There are still a few specialized uses for horses, such as use by police in parks and crowd control situations. 29. Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment.” 30. Karl Widerquist and Michael A. Lewis, “An Efficiency Argument for the Basic Income Guarantee,” International Journal of Environment, Workplace and Employment 2, 1 (2006): 21–43. 6 BIG Happiness 1. I am assuming a version of “welfarism.” I believe the argument can incorporate non-welfarist conceptions of “the good,” but ignore that here as an unnecessary complication. On the issue of welfarism, see Simon Keller, “Welfarism,” Philosophy Compass 4, 1 (2009): 82–95. 2.


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The Economic Singularity: Artificial Intelligence and the Death of Capitalism by Calum Chace

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Airbnb, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, call centre, Chris Urmson, congestion charging, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Douglas Engelbart, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Flynn Effect, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, ImageNet competition, income inequality, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of the telephone, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, lifelogging, lump of labour, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, McJob, means of production, Milgram experiment, Narrative Science, natural language processing, new economy, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, PageRank, pattern recognition, post scarcity, post-industrial society, post-work, precariat, prediction markets, QWERTY keyboard, railway mania, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Rodney Brooks, Sam Altman, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, software is eating the world, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, Vernor Vinge, working-age population, Y Combinator, young professional

I have described some of the better-known ones here. Sometimes they reserve judgement or sit on the fence, but as far as possible, I present them in order of increasing scepticism about the proposition of widespread unemployability. Frey and Osborne Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne are the directors of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment.[xlix] Their 2013 report “The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?” has been widely quoted. Its approach to analysing US job data has since been used by others to analyse job data from Europe and Japan. The report analyses 2010 US Department of Labour data for 702 jobs, and in a curious blend of precision and vagueness, concludes that “47% of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning that associated occupations are potentially automatable over some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two.” 19% of the jobs were found to be at medium risk and 33% at low risk.

A slight majority (52%) said no, arguing that technology has always created more jobs than it has destroyed, that it is not advancing fast enough to destroy so many jobs, and that regulatory intervention would stop it if necessary. The 48% who thought there would be a net loss of jobs believed that the process was already in train, but that it would get much worse, and that inequality would become a severe problem as a result. Both sides thought that the education system is doing a poor job of preparing young people for the new world of work, and also that the future of employment is not pre-ordained, but is susceptible to good policy. Fundacion Innovacion BankInter BankInter, based in Madrid, is one of the largest banks in Spain. In 2003 it established a Foundation to promote the creation of sustainable wealth in Spain through innovation and entrepreneurship. One of the Foundation's main activities is organising the Future Trends Forum, an international think tank which periodically gathers together a group of experts to discuss an important topic, and then produces reports and videos based on the conclusions of those discussions.

The Economist, December 4, 2003 [ccxiii] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-18/rio-tinto-opens-worlds-first-automated-mine/6863814 [ccxiv] http://www.mining.com/why-western-australia-became-the-center-of-mine-automation/ [ccxv] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state [ccxvi] http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf [ccxvii] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horn_%26_Hardart#Automated_food [ccxviii] http://www.computerworld.com/article/2837810/automation-arrives-at-restaurants-but-dont-blame-rising-minimum-wages.html [ccxix] http://blogs.forrester.com/andy_hoar/15-04-14-death_of_a_b2b_salesman [ccxx] http://www.nuance.com/for-business/customer-service-solutions/nina/index.htm [ccxxi] http://www.zdnet.com/article/swedbank-humanises-customer-service-with-artificial-intelligence-platform/ [ccxxii] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601215/china-is-building-a-robot-army-of-model-workers/ [ccxxiii] http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/sep/12/artificial-intelligence-data-journalism-media [ccxxiv] http://www.arria.com/ [ccxxv] https://www.youtube.com/watch?


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Four Futures: Life After Capitalism by Peter Frase

Airbnb, basic income, bitcoin, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, cryptocurrency, deindustrialization, Edward Snowden, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, fixed income, full employment, future of work, high net worth, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), iterative process, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, litecoin, mass incarceration, means of production, Occupy movement, pattern recognition, peak oil, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-work, postindustrial economy, price mechanism, private military company, Ray Kurzweil, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart meter, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The Future of Employment, Thomas Malthus, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, Wolfgang Streeck

., “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013. 3Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, New York: W. W. Norton, 2014. 4Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” OxfordMartin.ox.ac.uk, 2013. 5Kevin Drum, “Welcome, Robot Overlords. Please Don’t Fire Us?,” Mother Jones, May/June 2013. 6Brynjolfsson and McAfee, The Second Machine Age, pp. 7–8. 7Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment.” 8Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, New York: Basic Books, 2015. 9Katie Drummond, “Clothes Will Sew Themselves in Darpa’s Sweat-Free Sweatshops,” Wired.com, June 6, 2012. 10Leanna Garfield, “These Warehouse Robots Can Boost Productivity by 800%,” TechInsider.io, February 26, 2016. 11Ilan Brat, “Robots Step into New Planting, Harvesting Roles,” Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2015. 12Shulamith Firestone, The Dialectic of Sex: The Case for Feminist Revolution, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1970. 13Soraya Chemaly, “What Do Artificial Wombs Mean for Women?”


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The Driver in the Driverless Car: How Our Technology Choices Will Create the Future by Vivek Wadhwa, Alex Salkever

23andMe, 3D printing, Airbnb, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, clean water, correlation does not imply causation, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, double helix, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Google bus, Hyperloop, income inequality, Internet of things, job automation, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, Law of Accelerating Returns, license plate recognition, life extension, longitudinal study, Lyft, M-Pesa, Menlo Park, microbiome, mobile money, new economy, personalized medicine, phenotype, precision agriculture, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak, Stuxnet, supercomputer in your pocket, Tesla Model S, The Future of Employment, Thomas Davenport, Travis Kalanick, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, uranium enrichment, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero day

Some researchers, such as Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, see the automatons inevitably gobbling up more and more meaningful slices of our work.9 Oxford University researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne caused a tremendous stir in September 2013, when they asserted in a seminal paper that A.I. would put 47 percent of current U.S. employment “at risk.”10 The paper, “The Future of Employment,” is a rigorous and detailed historical review of research on the effect of technology innovation upon labor markets and employment. In a recent research paper, McKinsey & Company found that “only about 5 percent of occupations could be fully automated by adapting current technology. However, today’s technologies could automate 45 percent of the activities people are paid to perform across all occupations.

Jason Kravarik and Sara Sidner, “The Dallas shootout, in the eyes of police,” CNN 15 July 2016, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_shooting_of_Dallas_police_officers (accessed 21 October 2016). 9. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (rev.), W.W. Norton, 2016, http://books.wwnorton.com/books/The-Second-Machine-Age (accessed 21 October 2016). 10. Michael A. Osborne and Carl Benedikt Frey, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?, Oxford: University of Oxford, 2013, http://futureoflife.org/data/PDF/michael_osborne.pdf (accessed 21 October 2016). 11. James Manyika, Michael Chui, and Mehdi Miremadi, “These are the jobs least likely to go to robots,” Fortune 11 July 2006, http://fortune.com/2016/07/11/skills-gap-automation. 12. Timothy J. Seppela, “Google is working on a kill switch to prevent an AI uprising,” Engadget 3 June 2016, https://www.engadget.com/2016/06/03/google-ai-killswitch/ (accessed 21 October 2016).


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The AI Economy: Work, Wealth and Welfare in the Robot Age by Roger Bootle

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Albert Einstein, anti-work, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Bernie Sanders, blockchain, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Chris Urmson, computer age, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, deskilling, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, facts on the ground, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of the wheel, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, mega-rich, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, positional goods, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, social intelligence, spinning jenny, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, universal basic income, US Airways Flight 1549, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, wealth creators, winner-take-all economy, Y2K, Yogi Berra

., Florescu, E. and The Millennium Project Team (2016), http:/​/​107.​22.​164.​43/​millennium/​2015-SOF-ExecutiveSummary-English.​pdf 17 Nedelkoska, L. and Quintini, G. (2018) Automation, Skills Use and Training, OECD Social, Employment and Migration. Working Papers 202, Paris: OECD Publishing, 2018, https:/​/​www.​oecd-ilibrary.​org/​employment/​automation-skills-use-and-training_​2e2f4eea-en 18 Frey, C. B. and Osborne, M. A. (2013) “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization?” https:/​/​www.​oxfordmartin.​ox.​ac.​uk/​downloads/​academic/​The_​Future_​of_​Employment.​pdf 19 Quoted in the Financial Times, February 25/26, 2017. 20 Chui, M. Manyika, J. and Miremadi, M. (2015) “Four Fundamentals of Workplace Automation,” McKinsey Quarterly (November). 21 Max Tegmark has laid down three criteria for judging whether a job is more or less likely to be challenged, or replaced, by robots any time soon.

Second, aside from the one big change whose effects they are trying to foresee, they envisage the future as a straight continuation of the past. In other words, they are markedly lacking in imagination. These failings are not restricted to would-be visionaries past. They can also afflict us. So, we must tread extremely warily. Having said that, and having dosed ourselves with lashings of humility, and drunk deep from the well of skepticism, there is a lot that we can say about the future of employment in the new robot- and AI-dominated future. Some studies have tried to estimate the number of jobs that will disappear in particular sectors and to hazard a guess at what number of new jobs that will appear. These exercises can have some value. Indeed, I will refer to some of their results below. But such studies are replete with arid banks of dubious numbers. By contrast, what this chapter tries to do is to concentrate on the principles underlying job destruction and job creation in the new economy.


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WTF?: What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us by Tim O'Reilly

4chan, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Alvin Roth, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Bill Joy: nanobots, bitcoin, blockchain, Bretton Woods, Brewster Kahle, British Empire, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computer vision, corporate governance, corporate raider, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, data acquisition, deskilling, DevOps, Donald Davies, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Filter Bubble, Firefox, Flash crash, full employment, future of work, George Akerlof, gig economy, glass ceiling, Google Glasses, Gordon Gekko, gravity well, greed is good, Guido van Rossum, High speed trading, hiring and firing, Home mortgage interest deduction, Hyperloop, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, information asymmetry, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of movable type, invisible hand, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jitney, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, Lao Tzu, Larry Wall, Lean Startup, Leonard Kleinrock, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, McMansion, microbiome, microservices, minimum viable product, mortgage tax deduction, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, Oculus Rift, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, Paul Buchheit, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, Ponzi scheme, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Coase, Sam Altman, school choice, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, SETI@home, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Skype, smart contracts, Snapchat, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, social web, software as a service, software patent, spectrum auction, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, strong AI, TaskRabbit, telepresence, the built environment, The Future of Employment, the map is not the territory, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Davenport, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, trickle-down economics, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, ubercab, universal basic income, US Airways Flight 1549, VA Linux, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, Y Combinator, yellow journalism, zero-sum game, Zipcar

x it wants an AI to make three-fourths of management decisions: Olivia Solon, “World’s Largest Hedge Fund to Replace Managers with Artificial Intelligence,” Guardian, December 22, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/22/bridgewater-associates-ai-artificial-intelligence-manage ment. x Oxford University researchers estimate: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The _Future_of_Employment.pdf. x Airbnb has more rooms on offer: Andrew Cave, “Airbnb Is on Track to Be the World’s Largest Hotelier,” Business Insider, November 26, 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-largest-hotelier-2013–11. xi Uber is still losing $2 billion every year: Eric Newcomer, “Uber Loses at Least $1.2 Billion in First Half of 2016,” Bloomberg Technology, August 25, 2016, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-25/uber-loses-at-least-1-2-billion-in-first-half-of-2016.

CHAPTER 14: WE DON’T HAVE TO RUN OUT OF JOBS 298 “live wisely and agreeably and well”: John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” in Essays in Persuasion (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1932), 358–73, available online from http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ 116a/keynes1.pdf. 298 the world has been getting better: Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, “Global Extreme Poverty,” OurWorldIn Data.org, first published in 2013; substantive revision March 27, 2017, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty/. 299 once destroyed factory jobs: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation,” Oxford Martin Institute, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of _Employment.pdf. 299 the age of growth is over: Robert Gordon, “The Death of Innovation, the End of Growth,” TED 2013, https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_gordon _the_death_of_innovation_the_end_of _growth. 301 something that had never been done before: Margot Lee Shetterly, Hidden Figures (New York: William Morrow, 2016). 302 well-paid human jobs: Already, in the US, 43% of the electric power generation workforce is employed in solar technologies, versus 22% of electric power generation via fossil fuels.


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Humans Need Not Apply: A Guide to Wealth and Work in the Age of Artificial Intelligence by Jerry Kaplan

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Amazon Web Services, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, bank run, bitcoin, Bob Noyce, Brian Krebs, business cycle, buy low sell high, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, combinatorial explosion, computer vision, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, estate planning, Flash crash, Gini coefficient, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, haute couture, hiring and firing, income inequality, index card, industrial robot, information asymmetry, invention of agriculture, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Loebner Prize, Mark Zuckerberg, mortgage debt, natural language processing, Own Your Own Home, pattern recognition, Satoshi Nakamoto, school choice, Schrödinger's Cat, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, software as a service, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, Turing test, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working poor, Works Progress Administration

Michael Loughran, IBM Media Relations, “WellPoint and IBM Announce Agreement to Put Watson to Work in Health Care,” September 12, 2011, https://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/35402.wss. 39. http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm. 40. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoland, last modified December 25, 2014. 41. Terrence McCoy, “Just How Common Are Pilot Suicides?” Washington Post, March 11, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/03/11/just-how-common-are-pilot-suicides/?tid=pm_national_pop. 42. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 43. “Fact Sheet on the President’s Plan to Make College More Affordable: A Better Bargain for the Middle Class,” press release, the White House, August 22, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/22/fact-sheet-president-s-plan -make-college-more-affordable-better-bargain-. 44.


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Utopia for Realists: The Case for a Universal Basic Income, Open Borders, and a 15-Hour Workweek by Rutger Bregman

autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, Bartolomé de las Casas, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Branko Milanovic, cognitive dissonance, computer age, conceptual framework, credit crunch, David Graeber, Diane Coyle, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, full employment, George Gilder, George Santayana, happiness index / gross national happiness, Henry Ford's grandson gave labor union leader Walter Reuther a tour of the company’s new, automated factory…, income inequality, invention of gunpowder, James Watt: steam engine, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, low skilled workers, means of production, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, minimum wage unemployment, Mont Pelerin Society, Nathan Meyer Rothschild: antibiotics, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, precariat, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, stem cell, Steven Pinker, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, wage slave, War on Poverty, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, wikimedia commons, women in the workforce, working poor, World Values Survey

See: John Markoff, “Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software,” The New York Times (March 4, 2011). http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html 16. Warren G. Bennis first said this. Cited in: Mark Fisher, The Millionaire’s Book of Quotations (1991), p. 15. 17. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation,” Oxford Martin School (September 17, 2013). http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf For the calculation for Europe, see: http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1399-chart-of-the-week-54-percent-of-eu-jobs-atrisk-of-computerisation 18. Gary Marcus, “Why We Should Think About The Threat of Artificial Intelligence,” The New Yorker (October 24, 2013). http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/10/why-we-should-think-about-the-threat-of-artificial-intelligence.html 19.


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The Innovation Illusion: How So Little Is Created by So Many Working So Hard by Fredrik Erixon, Bjorn Weigel

"Robert Solow", Airbnb, Albert Einstein, American ideology, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Basel III, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, BRICs, Burning Man, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, Clayton Christensen, Colonization of Mars, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crony capitalism, dark matter, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, discounted cash flows, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, fear of failure, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Gilder, global supply chain, global value chain, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Gordon Gekko, high net worth, hiring and firing, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, income per capita, index fund, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Just-in-time delivery, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, laissez-faire capitalism, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, Martin Wolf, mass affluent, means of production, Mont Pelerin Society, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, pensions crisis, Peter Thiel, Potemkin village, price mechanism, principal–agent problem, Productivity paradox, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, risk tolerance, risk/return, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, technological singularity, telemarketer, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, total factor productivity, transaction costs, transportation-network company, tulip mania, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, uber lyft, University of East Anglia, unpaid internship, Vanguard fund, Yogi Berra

Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2016. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne, “Technology at Work: The Future of Innovation and Employment.” Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, Feb. 2015. At http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/reports/Citi_GPS_Technology_Work.pdf. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation.” Paper, Sept. 17, 2013. At http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. Frum, David, “Paris Taxi Shortage: It’s about Jobs.” CNN, July 10, 2012. Fukuyama, Francis, The End of History and the Last Man. Simon & Schuster, 2006. Gabler, Alain, and Markus Poschke, “Experimentation by Firms, Distortions, and Aggregate Productivity.” Review of Economic Dynamics, 16.1 (2013): 26–38.

“The New Economy and an Old Problem.” 68.Lawrence, “Recent Declines in Labor’s Share in US Income.” 69.Acemoglu and Robinson, “The Rise and Decline of General Laws of Capitalism.” 70.Pessoa and Van Reenen, “Decoupling of Wage Growth and Productivity Growth?” 71.Roine and Waldenström, “On the Role of Capital Gains in Swedish Income Inequality.” 72.Konjunktur Institutet, “Lönebildningsrapporten,” 30. 73.US President, “Economic Report,” 34. 74.US President, “Economic Report,” 34. 75.Mokyr, “What Today’s Economic Gloomsayers Are Missing.” 76.Marvin, When Old Technologies Were New. 77.Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment,” 45. 78.Ford, Rise of the Robots, 284. 79.Kan, “Foxconn Expects Robots to Take over More Factory Work.” 80.Kan, “Foxconn Expects Robots to Take over More Factory Work.” 81.Kan, “Foxconn’s CEO Backpedals on Robot Takeover at Factories.” 82.IFR, “Robots Improve Manufacturing Success and Create Jobs.” 83.Graetz and Michaels, “Robots at Work.” 84.Fox Nation, “Obama Blames ATMs for High Unemployment.” 85.Bessen, Learning by Doing, 108. 86.Approximately in 1745 in England, and one year later in France. 87.Joyce, Ulysses, 82. 88.Rothschild, “The Sourdough Hotel.” 89.Marx and Engels, The Communist Manifesto, 12. 90.Haltiwanger, Hathaway, and Miranda, “Declining Business Dynamism in the US High-Technology Sector,” 1. 91.Andrews, Criscuolo, and Gal, “Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy,” 14. 9 The Future and How to Prevent It 1.Toynbee, A Study of History: Abridgement of Volumes I–VI, 273. 2.Buiter, Rahbari, and Seydl, “The Long-Run Decline in Advanced-Economy Investment.” 3.Kotlikoff and Burns, The Clash of Generations, 229. 4.Wilson and Purushothaman, “Dreaming with BRICs.” 5.Xie, “Goldman’s BRIC Era Ends.” 6.Das, India Grows at Night. 7.Magnus, “Hitting a BRIC Wall.” 8.IMF, “Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices.” 9.Hoenig, “Back to Basics.” 10.The Economist, “One Regulator to Rule Them All.” 11.Zingales, “Does Finance Benefit Society?”


pages: 345 words: 75,660

Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb

"Robert Solow", Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Air France Flight 447, Airbus A320, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bayesian statistics, Black Swan, blockchain, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, collateralized debt obligation, computer age, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, data acquisition, data is the new oil, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Google Glasses, high net worth, ImageNet competition, income inequality, information retrieval, inventory management, invisible hand, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Lyft, Minecraft, Mitch Kapor, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Nate Silver, new economy, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, pattern recognition, performance metric, profit maximization, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, strong AI, The Future of Employment, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tim Cook: Apple, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, US Airways Flight 1549, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Langewiesche, Y Combinator, zero-sum game

Or, for a more academic reference, see Leonard Berlin, “The Radiologist: Doctor’s Doctor or Patient’s Doctor,” American Journal of Roentgenology 128, no. 4 (1977), http://www.ajronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2214/ajr.128.4.702. 8. Levy, “Computers and the Supply of Radiology Services.” 9. Jha and Topol, “Adapting to Artificial Intelligence”; S. Jha, “Will Computers Replace Radiologists?” Medscape 30 (December 2016), http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/863127#vp_1. 10. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, September 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 11. Truckmakers are already embedding convey capabilities in their newest vehicles. Volvo has deployed this in several tests, and Telsa’s new semi has these capabilities built in from the start. Chapter 15 1. “How Germany’s Otto Uses Artificial Intelligence,” The Economist, April 12, 2017, https://www.economist.com/news/business/21720675-firm-using-algorithm-designed-cern-laboratory-how-germanys-otto-uses. 2.


pages: 267 words: 72,552

Reinventing Capitalism in the Age of Big Data by Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, Thomas Ramge

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Air France Flight 447, Airbnb, Alvin Roth, Atul Gawande, augmented reality, banking crisis, basic income, Bayesian statistics, bitcoin, blockchain, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, centralized clearinghouse, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, cognitive bias, conceptual framework, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, fundamental attribution error, George Akerlof, gig economy, Google Glasses, information asymmetry, interchangeable parts, invention of the telegraph, inventory management, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, land reform, lone genius, low cost airline, low cost carrier, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, market design, market fundamentalism, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, multi-sided market, natural language processing, Network effects, Norbert Wiener, offshore financial centre, Parag Khanna, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, price anchoring, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, random walk, recommendation engine, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, smart grid, smart meter, Snapchat, statistical model, Steve Jobs, technoutopianism, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, universal basic income, William Langewiesche, Y Combinator

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Participation Rates, data sets and graphs available at https://data.bls.gov. forecast depressing employment figures: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W. W. Norton, 2016); Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford, UK: Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013), http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of _Employment.pdf. advent of a “second machine age”: Brynjolfsson and McAfee, The Second Machine Age. “labor share” has declined considerably: Matthias Kehrig and Nicolas Vincent, “Growing Productivity Without Growing Wages: The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Aggregate Labor Share Decline,” CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6454, May 3, 2017, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2977787.


pages: 361 words: 81,068

The Internet Is Not the Answer by Andrew Keen

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Airbnb, AltaVista, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, Bay Area Rapid Transit, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, Black Swan, Bob Geldof, Burning Man, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, collective bargaining, Colonization of Mars, computer age, connected car, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, Donald Davies, Downton Abbey, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Gehry, Frederick Winslow Taylor, frictionless, full employment, future of work, gig economy, global village, Google bus, Google Glasses, Hacker Ethic, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, index card, informal economy, information trail, Innovator's Dilemma, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, Lean Startup, libertarian paternalism, lifelogging, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, Metcalfe’s law, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nonsequential writing, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, Occupy movement, packet switching, PageRank, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Paul Graham, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer rental, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Potemkin village, precariat, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, smart cities, Snapchat, social web, South of Market, San Francisco, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, TaskRabbit, Ted Nelson, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, the medium is the message, the new new thing, Thomas L Friedman, Travis Kalanick, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber for X, uber lyft, urban planning, Vannevar Bush, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, working poor, Y Combinator

,” Guardian, December 17, 2013. 27 Lorraine Luk, “Foxconn Working with Google on Robotics,” Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2014. 28 Dan Rowinski, “Google’s Game of Moneyball in the Age of Artificial Intelligence,” ReadWrite.com, January 29, 2014. 29 Chunka Mui, “Google Car + Uber = Killer App,” Forbes, August 23, 2013. 30 395,000 at UPS (pressroom.ups.com/Fact+Sheets/UPS+Fact+Sheet) and 300,000 at FedEx (about.van.fedex.com/company-information). 31 Claire Cain Miller, “FedEx’s Price Rise Is a Blessing in Disguise for Amazon,” New York Times, May 9, 2014. 32 David Streitfeld, “Amazon Floats the Notion of Delivery Drones,” New York Times, December 1, 2013. 33 Charles Arthur, “Amazon Seeks US Permission to Test Prime Air Delivery Drones,” Guardian, July 11, 2014. 34 Katie Lobosco, “Army of Robots to Invade Amazon Warehouse,” CNNMoney, May 22, 2014. 35 George Packer, “Cheap Words,” New Yorker, February 17, 2014. 36 “John Naughton, Why Facebook and Google Are Buying into Drones,” Observer, April 19, 2014. 37 Reed Albergotti, “Zuckerberg, Musk Invest in Artificial-Intelligence Company,” Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2014. 38 Ibid. 39 Emily Young, “Davos 2014: Google’s Schmidt Warning on Jobs,” BBC, January 23, 2014. 40 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization?,” Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 41 Derek Thompson, “What Jobs Will the Robots Take?,” Atlantic, January 23, 2014. 42 Ibid. 43 Erik Larson, “Kodak Reorganization Approval Affirms Move from Cameras,” Bloomberg, August 21, 2013, bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-20/kodak-bankruptcy-reorganization-plan-approved-by-new-york.html. 44 “Kodak, Smaller and Redirected, Leaves Bankruptcy,” Associated Press, September 3, 2013. 45 Julie Creswell, “Kodak’s Fuzzy Future,” New York Times, May 3, 2013, dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/after-bankruptcy-a-leaner-kodak-faces-an-uphill-battle. 46 For a helpful timeline of Kodak’s 2013 emergence from bankruptcy, see “Key Events in the History of Eastman Kodak Company,” Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2013, nytimes.com/2013/09/04/business/kodak-smaller-and-redirected-leaves-bankruptcy.html?


pages: 307 words: 82,680

A Pelican Introduction: Basic Income by Guy Standing

bank run, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Black Swan, Boris Johnson, British Empire, centre right, collective bargaining, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, declining real wages, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, intangible asset, job automation, job satisfaction, Joi Ito, labour market flexibility, land value tax, libertarian paternalism, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, mass incarceration, moral hazard, Nelson Mandela, offshore financial centre, open economy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Paul Samuelson, plutocrats, Plutocrats, precariat, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, rent control, rent-seeking, Sam Altman, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, The Future of Employment, universal basic income, Wolfgang Streeck, women in the workforce, working poor, Y Combinator, Zipcar

Washington, DC: White House, December. 15. A. Stern (2016), Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream. New York: PublicAffairs. 16. Cited in N. Lee (2016), ‘How will you survive when the robots take your job?’, Engadget, 19 August. 17. C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne (2013), ‘The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization?’ Oxford: University of Oxford. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 18. M. Arntz, T. Gregory and U. Zierahn (2016), ‘The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis’. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 189. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 19. K. Schwab (2016), The Fourth Industrial Revolution.


pages: 293 words: 81,183

Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Make a Difference by William MacAskill

barriers to entry, basic income, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Cal Newport, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, effective altruism, en.wikipedia.org, end world poverty, experimental subject, follow your passion, food miles, immigration reform, income inequality, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, job automation, job satisfaction, Lean Startup, M-Pesa, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Nate Silver, Peter Singer: altruism, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, randomized controlled trial, self-driving car, Skype, Stanislav Petrov, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, universal basic income, women in the workforce

Chris Hallquist, for example: Private conversation with Chris Hallquist, July 2014. App Academy, a three-month intensive programming school: Marcus Wohlsen, “Tuition at Learn-to-Code Boot Camp is Free—Until You Get a Job,” Wired, March 15, 2013. whether a job will be around in the future: For an in-depth analysis, see Carl B. Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. David Brooks, writing in The New York Times: Brooks, David, “The Way to Produce a Person,” The New York Times, June 3, 2013. GiveDirectly has raised more than $20 million: “Financials,” GiveWell, https://www.givedirectly.org/financials.html. Professor William Nordhaus at Yale University has estimated: William D.


Affluence Without Abundance: The Disappearing World of the Bushmen by James Suzman

access to a mobile phone, agricultural Revolution, back-to-the-land, clean water, discovery of the americas, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, full employment, invention of agriculture, invisible hand, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, means of production, Occupy movement, open borders, out of africa, post-work, quantitative easing, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, trickle-down economics, unemployed young men, We are the 99%

In other published pieces he was sometimes referred to as Gcau Coma, (incorrectly) using the Zulu click orthography. 2   Richard B. Lee, “The Gods Must Be Crazy but the Producers Know Exactly What They Are Doing.” Southern Africa Report (June 1985): 19–20. Chapter 18: The Promised Land 1   Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. On Names and Clicks NAMES In spring of 1904 the German zoologist, linguist, anatomist, and philosopher Leonard Schultze was having the adventure of a lifetime. He had spent several months traveling to German South-West Africa (now Namibia). In addition to evaluating the fishing potential of Namibian coasted waters on behalf of the German colonial office, he hoped to collect a range of zoological specimens to take back to Germany.


pages: 479 words: 144,453

Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow by Yuval Noah Harari

23andMe, agricultural Revolution, algorithmic trading, Anne Wojcicki, anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, call centre, Chris Urmson, cognitive dissonance, Columbian Exchange, computer age, Deng Xiaoping, don't be evil, drone strike, European colonialism, experimental subject, falling living standards, Flash crash, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, glass ceiling, global village, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job automation, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, lifelogging, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, Minecraft, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monkeys Reject Unequal Pay, mutually assured destruction, new economy, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, placebo effect, Ray Kurzweil, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, stem cell, Steven Pinker, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, too big to fail, trade route, Turing machine, Turing test, ultimatum game, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero-sum game

Simon Sharwood, ‘Software “Appointed to Board” of Venture Capital Firm’, The Register, 18 May 2014, accessed 12 August 2015, http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/18/software_appointed_to_board_of_venture_capital_firm/; John Bates, ‘I’m the Chairman of the Board’, Huffington Post, 6 April 2014, accessed 12 August 2015, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-bates/im-the-chairman-of-the-bo_b_5440591.html; Colm Gorey, ‘I’m Afraid I Can’t Invest in That, Dave: AI Appointed to VC Funding Board’, Silicon Republic, 15 May 2014, accessed 12 August 2015, https://www.siliconrepublic.com/discovery/2014/05/15/im-afraid-i-cant-invest-in-that-dave-ai-appointed-to-vc-funding-board. 18. Steiner, Automate This, 89–101; D. H. Cope, Comes the Fiery Night: 2,000 Haiku by Man and Machine (Santa Cruz: Create Space, 2011). See also: Dormehl, The Formula, 174–80, 195–8, 200–2, 216–20; Steiner, Automate This, 75–89. 19. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’, 17 September 2013, accessed 12 August 2015, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 20. E. Brynjolfsson and A. McAffee, Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (Lexington: Digital Frontier Press, 2011). 21. Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014). 22.

Liberalism eventually defeated socialism only by adopting the best parts of the socialist programme. In the twenty-first century we might witness the creation of a new massive class: people devoid of any economic, political or even artistic value, who contribute nothing to the prosperity, power and glory of society. In September 2013 two Oxford researchers, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, published ‘The Future of Employment’, in which they surveyed the likelihood of different professions being taken over by computer algorithms within the next twenty years. The algorithm developed by Frey and Osborne to do the calculations estimated that 47 per cent of US jobs are at high risk. For example, there is a 99 per cent probability that by 2033 human telemarketers and insurance underwriters will lose their jobs to algorithms.


pages: 667 words: 149,811

Economic Dignity by Gene Sperling

active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Cass Sunstein, collective bargaining, corporate governance, David Brooks, desegregation, Detroit bankruptcy, Donald Trump, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Elon Musk, employer provided health coverage, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, full employment, gender pay gap, ghettoisation, gig economy, Gini coefficient, guest worker program, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, income inequality, invisible hand, job automation, job satisfaction, labor-force participation, late fees, liberal world order, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum wage unemployment, obamacare, offshore financial centre, payday loans, price discrimination, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, speech recognition, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Toyota Production System, traffic fines, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, War on Poverty, working poor, young professional, zero-sum game

Aaron Smith and Monica Anderson, “Americans’ Attitudes toward a Future in Which Robots and Computers Can Do Many Human Jobs,” Pew Research Center, October 4, 2017, https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/10/04/americans-attitudes-toward-a-future-in-which-robots-and-computers-can-do-many-human-jobs/. 9. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Technological Forecasting & Social Change 114 (2017): 265, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 10. Mark Muro, Robert Maxim, and Jacob Whiton, Automation and Artificial Intelligence: How Machines Are Affecting People and Places (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2019), 5, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2019.01_BrookingsMetro_Automation-AI_Report_Muro-Maxim-Whiton-FINAL-version.pdf. 11.

In Seattle, then mayor Ed Murray, who campaigned on a $15 minimum wage, appointed a task force to produce a plan that both workers and businesses could accept. After months of intense negotiations led by David Rolf on the labor side, the group produced a recommendation that twenty-one of the twenty-four task force members endorsed. In 2014, the Seattle City Council unanimously approved a path to a $15 minimum wage.84 STRUCTURING SECTORAL BARGAINING Law professor Kate Andrias of the University of Michigan has noted that the future of employment law is one where the law is not just “a collection of individual rights bestowed by the state” but instead “it is a collective project to be jointly determined and enforced by workers, in conjunction with employers and the public.”85 Movements like the Fight for $15 and organizing by domestic workers have set a precedent for future negotiations. However, broad sectoral bargaining that sets base national wages for entire industries (with cost-of-living increases as necessary) will require us to rethink the way we’ve structured the relationships between unions and companies.


pages: 294 words: 96,661

The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity by Byron Reese

agricultural Revolution, AI winter, artificial general intelligence, basic income, Buckminster Fuller, business cycle, business process, Claude Shannon: information theory, clean water, cognitive bias, computer age, crowdsourcing, dark matter, Elon Musk, Eratosthenes, estate planning, financial independence, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, full employment, Hans Rosling, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invention of movable type, invention of the printing press, invention of writing, Isaac Newton, Islamic Golden Age, James Hargreaves, job automation, Johannes Kepler, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, lateral thinking, life extension, Louis Pasteur, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Mary Lou Jepsen, Moravec's paradox, On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres, pattern recognition, profit motive, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Rodney Brooks, Sam Altman, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, technological singularity, telepresence, telepresence robot, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, Von Neumann architecture, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, working poor, Works Progress Administration, Y Combinator

Noble wrote in Progress Without People: Computer-aided manufacturing, robotics, computer inventories, automated switchboards and tellers, telecommunication technologies—all have been used to displace and replace people, to enable employers to reduce labour costs, contract-out, relocate operations. But is it true now? Will new technology destroy the current jobs too quickly? A number of studies have tried to answer this question directly. One of the very finest and certainly the most quoted was published in 2013 by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, both of Oxford University. The report, titled The Future of Employment, is seventy-two pages long, but what has been referenced most frequently in the media is a single ten-word phrase: “about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk.” Hey, who needs more than that? It made for juicy and salacious headlines, to be sure. It seemed as if every news source screamed a variant of “Half of US Jobs Will Be Taken by Computers in Twenty Years.” If we really are going to lose half our jobs in twenty years, well, then the New York Times should dust off the giant type it used back in 1969 when it printed “MEN WALK ON MOON” and report the story on the front page with equal emphasis.

In their category of jobs with a 90 percent or higher chance of certain tasks being computerized are tour guides and carpenters’ helpers. The disconnect is clear: some of what a carpenter’s helper does will get automated, but the carpenter helper job won’t vanish; it will morph, as almost everyone else’s job will, from architect to zoologist. Sure, your iPhone can be a tour guide, but that won’t make tour guides vanish. Anyone who took the time to read past the introduction to The Future of Employment saw this. And to be clear, Frey and Osborne were very up-front. They stated, in scholar-speak, the following: We do not capture any within-occupation variation resulting from the computerisation of tasks that simply free-up time for human labour to perform other tasks. In response to the Frey and Osborne paper, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an intergovernmental economic organization made up of nations committed to free markets and democracy, released a report in 2016 that directly counters it.


pages: 357 words: 95,986

Inventing the Future: Postcapitalism and a World Without Work by Nick Srnicek, Alex Williams

3D printing, additive manufacturing, air freight, algorithmic trading, anti-work, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, basic income, battle of ideas, blockchain, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, business cycle, call centre, capital controls, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, centre right, collective bargaining, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, deskilling, Doha Development Round, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, financial independence, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, housing crisis, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, intermodal, Internet Archive, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kickstarter, late capitalism, liberation theology, Live Aid, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, market design, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, mass incarceration, means of production, minimum wage unemployment, Mont Pelerin Society, neoliberal agenda, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, patent troll, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, Philip Mirowski, post scarcity, post-work, postnationalism / post nation state, precariat, price stability, profit motive, quantitative easing, reshoring, Richard Florida, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Slavoj Žižek, social web, stakhanovite, Steve Jobs, surplus humans, the built environment, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, wages for housework, We are the 99%, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population

The large number of relevant texts include: Ad Hoc Committee, ‘The Triple Revolution’, International Socialist Review 24: 3 (1964); Donald Michael, Cybernation: The Silent Conquest (Santa Barbara, CA: Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, 1962); Paul Mattick, ‘The Economics of Cybernation’, New Politics 1: 4 (1962); David Noble, Progress Without People: In Defense of Luddism (Toronto: Between the Lines, 1995); Jeremy Rifkin, The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era (New York: Putnam, 1997); Martin Ford, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future (US: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2009); Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W. W. Norton, 2014). 16.These estimates are for the US and European labour markets, though similar numbers undoubtedly hold globally and, as we argue later, may even be worse in developing economies. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? 2013, pdf available at oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk; Jeremy Bowles, ‘The Computerisation of European Jobs’, Bruegel (2014), at bruegel.org; Stuart Elliott, ‘Anticipating a Luddite Revival’, Issues in Science and Technology 30: 3 (2014). 17.Karl Marx, Capital: A Critique of Political Economy, Volume I, transl. Ben Fowkes (London: Penguin, 1990), p. 566–7. 18.Paul Einzig, The Economic Consequences of Automation (New York: W.

This is just the way in which it unconsciously creates the material requirements of a higher mode of production.’ Karl Marx, Capital: A Critique of Political Economy, Volume III (London: Lawrence & Wishart, 1977), p. 259. 11.Marilyn Fischer, ‘Tensions from Technology in Marx’s Communist Society’, Journal of Value Inquiry 16: 2 (1982), pp. 125–6; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? 17 September 2013, pdf available at oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk, p. 8; Karl Marx, Capital: A Critique of Political Economy, Volume I, transl. Ben Fowkes (London: Penguin, 1990), Chapters 13–15. 12.Karl Marx, Grundrisse: Introduction to the Critique of Political Economy, transl. Martin Nicolaus (Middlesex: Penguin, 1973), p. 693. 13.Marx, Capital, Volume I, p. 517. 14.Maarten Goos, How the World of Work Is Changing: A Review of the Evidence (Geneva: International Labour Organization, 2013), pdf available at ilo.org, pp. 10–12; Frey and Osborne, Future of Employment, p. 10. 15.Bruno Latour, ‘How to Write “The Prince” for Machines as Well as Machinations’, in Brian Elliot, ed., Technology and Social Change (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 1988), p. 27. 16.Fiona Tregenna, Manufacturing Productivity, Deindustrialization, and Reindustrialization, World Institute for Development Economics Research, 2011, at econstor.eu, p. 7. 17.Colin Gill, Work, Unemployment and the New Technology (Cambridge: Polity, 1985), p. 95. 18.Tessa Morris-Suzuki, ‘Robots and Capitalism’, in Jim Davis, Thomas Hirschl and Michael Stack, eds, Cutting Edge: Technology, Information, Capitalism and Social Revolution (London: Verso, 1997), p. 15; World Robotics: Industrial Robots 2014, Frankfurt: International Federation of Robotics, 2014, pdf available at worldrobotics.org, p. 15. 19.Globally, 45 per cent of workers are involved in services, 32 per cent in agriculture and 23 per cent in manufacturing, with over half of recent job growth coming from the service sector.


pages: 90 words: 27,452

No More Work: Why Full Employment Is a Bad Idea by James Livingston

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, business cycle, collective bargaining, delayed gratification, full employment, future of work, Internet of things, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, labor-force participation, late capitalism, liberal capitalism, obamacare, post-work, Project for a New American Century, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, surplus humans, The Future of Employment, union organizing, working poor

Hegel, my intellectual model and principal antagonist in this book, wrote to himself in an unpublished fragment: When a man has finally reached the point where he does not think he knows it better than others, that is when he becomes indifferent to what they have done badly and he is interested only in what they have done right. Damn straight. Notes Preface 1. James Livingston, Against Thrift: Why Consumer Culture Is Good for the Economy, the Environment, and Your Soul (New York: Basic Books, 2011). Introduction 1. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford: Oxford University Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, 2013). Erik Brynjolfssen and Andrew McAfee, Race against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (Lexington, Mass.: Digital Frontier Press, 2011). 2. Julia Bellusz, “Nobel Winner Angus Deaton Talks about the Surprising Study on White Mortality He Just Co-Authored,” Vox, http://www.vox.com/2015/11/7/9684928/angus-deaton-white-mortality (18 February 2016).


pages: 831 words: 98,409

SUPERHUBS: How the Financial Elite and Their Networks Rule Our World by Sandra Navidi

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, assortative mating, bank run, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Blythe Masters, Bretton Woods, butterfly effect, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, conceptual framework, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crony capitalism, diversification, East Village, Elon Musk, eurozone crisis, family office, financial repression, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Google bus, Gordon Gekko, haute cuisine, high net worth, hindsight bias, income inequality, index fund, intangible asset, Jaron Lanier, John Meriwether, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, London Whale, Long Term Capital Management, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, McMansion, mittelstand, money market fund, Myron Scholes, NetJets, Network effects, offshore financial centre, old-boy network, Parag Khanna, Paul Samuelson, peer-to-peer, performance metric, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, quantitative easing, Renaissance Technologies, rent-seeking, reserve currency, risk tolerance, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, rolodex, Satyajit Das, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, The Future of Employment, The Predators' Ball, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, too big to fail, women in the workforce, young professional

Duff McDonald, Last Man Standing: The Ascent of Jamie Dimon and JPMorgan Chase (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009), Kindle locations 2033-95, Kindle edition. 7. William Cohan, House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street (New York: Anchor, 2010), 142. 8. Marti, “EQ More Important than IQ When It Comes to Success.” 9. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” paper prepared for the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 10. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, “Perception Beats Performance,” press release, July 29, 2014, http://www.rolandberger.de/pressemitteilungen/Perception_beats_Performance.xhtml. 11. Andrew Goodmann, “Top 40 Buffett-isms: Inspiration to Become a Better Investor,” Forbes, September 25, 2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/agoodman/2013/09/25/the-top-40-buffettisms-inspiration-to-become-a-better-investor. 12.


pages: 346 words: 97,330

Ghost Work: How to Stop Silicon Valley From Building a New Global Underclass by Mary L. Gray, Siddharth Suri

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Amazon Mechanical Turk, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, big-box store, bitcoin, blue-collar work, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collective bargaining, computer vision, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, data is the new oil, deindustrialization, deskilling, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, employer provided health coverage, en.wikipedia.org, equal pay for equal work, Erik Brynjolfsson, financial independence, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, future of work, gig economy, glass ceiling, global supply chain, hiring and firing, ImageNet competition, industrial robot, informal economy, information asymmetry, Jeff Bezos, job automation, knowledge economy, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, market friction, Mars Rover, natural language processing, new economy, passive income, pattern recognition, post-materialism, post-work, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Second Machine Age, sentiment analysis, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, software as a service, speech recognition, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, two-sided market, union organizing, universal basic income, Vilfredo Pareto, women in the workforce, Works Progress Administration, Y Combinator

On-demand labor platforms offer today’s online businesses a combination of human labor and AI, creating a massive, hidden pool of people available for ghost work. Delivering services and jobs on demand could be an integral part of the future of work. It could also have unintended, potentially disastrous consequences if not designed and managed with care and attention to how it is restructuring the experience and meaning that people attach to their day jobs. Ghost Work and the Future of Employment The dismantling of employment is a deep, fundamental transformation of the nature of work. Traditional full-time employment is no longer the rule in the United States. It used to be that a worker could spend decades showing up day after day to the same office, building a career, with the expectation of getting steady pay, healthcare, sick leave, and retirement benefits in return. Now, centuries of global reforms, from child labor laws to workplace safety guidelines, are being unraveled.

Because of these seismic shifts, the days of large enterprises with full-time employees working on-site are numbered. A crowded field of companies compete to sell information services that pair computers and smart devices with artificial intelligence. Companies like Catalant (formerly HourlyNerd), Popexpert, and Upwork use APIs to deliver the larger “macro-tasks” of knowledge work, on demand, to other businesses or individuals. The future of employment wrought by automation will undoubtedly be far more disjointed than traditional nine-to-five work. Some labor economists argue that a new reality of “fissured workplaces” is the ultimate result of turning long-term employment into a series of short-term contracts throughout the 1980s and ’90s.22 And yet this newly unpredictable reality hasn’t dissuaded millions of digital workers around the world from sitting down at their keyboards day and night and performing the countless behind-the-scenes tasks that make our apps seem smarter than they are.


pages: 393 words: 91,257

The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class by Joel Kotkin

Admiral Zheng, Andy Kessler, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, clean water, creative destruction, deindustrialization, demographic transition, don't be evil, Donald Trump, edge city, Elon Musk, European colonialism, financial independence, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, gig economy, Gini coefficient, Google bus, guest worker program, Hans Rosling, housing crisis, income inequality, informal economy, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, land reform, liberal capitalism, life extension, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, megacity, Nate Silver, new economy, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, Parag Khanna, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-industrial society, post-work, postindustrial economy, postnationalism / post nation state, precariat, profit motive, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, Richard Florida, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Sam Altman, Satyajit Das, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, superstar cities, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, trade route, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, We are the 99%, Wolfgang Streeck, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y Combinator

Galbraith, “Extreme Inequality Creates Global Disorder,” Nation, June 22, 2018, https://www.thenation.com/article/extreme-inequality-creates-global-disorder/. 27 Robert D. Atkinson, “Unfortunately, Technology Will Not Eliminate Many Jobs,” Innovation Files, August 7, 2017, https://itif.org/publications/2017/08/07/unfortunately-technology-will-not-eliminate-many-jobs; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, September 17, 2013, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf; Greg Ip, “Workers: Fear Not the Robot Apocalypse,” Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/workers-fear-not-the-robot-apocalypse-1504631505?shareToken=stabbe53f26f544566a3b04fc3361af876&reflink=article_email_share; Deirdre McCloskey, “The Myth of Technological Employment,” Reason, AugustSeptember 2017, http://reason.com/archives/2017/07/11/the-myth-of-technological-unem; Vanessa Fuhrmans, “How the Robot Revolution Could Create 21 Million Jobs,” Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-robot-revolution-could-create-21-million-jobs-1510758001; Oren Cass, “Is Technology Destroying the Labor Market?”


pages: 97 words: 31,550

Money: Vintage Minis by Yuval Noah Harari

23andMe, agricultural Revolution, algorithmic trading, Anne Wojcicki, autonomous vehicles, British Empire, call centre, credit crunch, European colonialism, Flash crash, greed is good, job automation, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, lifelogging, pattern recognition, Ponzi scheme, self-driving car, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero-sum game

In the twenty-first century we might witness the creation of a massive new unworking class: people devoid of any economic, political or even artistic value, who contribute nothing to the prosperity, power and glory of society. This ‘useless class’ will not be merely unemployed – it will be unemployable. In September 2013 two Oxford researchers, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, published ‘The Future of Employment’, in which they surveyed the likelihood of different professions being taken over by computer algorithms within the next twenty years. The algorithm developed by Frey and Osborne to do the calculations estimated that 47 per cent of US jobs are at high risk. For example, there is a 99 per cent probability that by 2033 human telemarketers and insurance underwriters will lose their jobs to algorithms.


pages: 364 words: 99,897

The Industries of the Future by Alec Ross

23andMe, 3D printing, Airbnb, algorithmic trading, AltaVista, Anne Wojcicki, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, bioinformatics, bitcoin, blockchain, Brian Krebs, British Empire, business intelligence, call centre, carbon footprint, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, connected car, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, cryptocurrency, David Brooks, disintermediation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, distributed ledger, Edward Glaeser, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, fiat currency, future of work, global supply chain, Google X / Alphabet X, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Joi Ito, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, lifelogging, litecoin, M-Pesa, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Mikhail Gorbachev, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Nelson Mandela, new economy, offshore financial centre, open economy, Parag Khanna, paypal mafia, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, precision agriculture, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rubik’s Cube, Satoshi Nakamoto, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, social graph, software as a service, special economic zone, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, technoutopianism, The Future of Employment, Travis Kalanick, underbanked, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Y Combinator, young professional

During the recent recession: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Race against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (Lexington, MA: Digital Frontier, 2011). Two Oxford University professors: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. It measures the shape and size of the customer’s head: Ibid. By way of illustration: “Reinventing Low Wage Work: The Restaurant Workforce in the United States,” Aspen Institute, October 30, 2014, http://www.aspenwsi.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/The-Restaurant-Workforce-in-the-United-States.pdf. More than 2.3 million people are: “Occupational Employment Statistics: Occupational Employment and Wages, May 2014,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 25, 2015, http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes353031.htm.


pages: 385 words: 111,113

Augmented: Life in the Smart Lane by Brett King

23andMe, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Apple II, artificial general intelligence, asset allocation, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, business intelligence, business process, call centre, chief data officer, Chris Urmson, Clayton Christensen, clean water, congestion charging, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, deskilling, different worldview, disruptive innovation, distributed generation, distributed ledger, double helix, drone strike, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fellow of the Royal Society, fiat currency, financial exclusion, Flash crash, Flynn Effect, future of work, gig economy, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Hans Lippershey, Hyperloop, income inequality, industrial robot, information asymmetry, Internet of things, invention of movable type, invention of the printing press, invention of the telephone, invention of the wheel, James Dyson, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job-hopping, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, Leonard Kleinrock, lifelogging, low earth orbit, low skilled workers, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, Metcalfe’s law, Minecraft, mobile money, money market fund, more computing power than Apollo, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, off grid, packet switching, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, speech recognition, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, strong AI, TaskRabbit, technological singularity, telemarketer, telepresence, telepresence robot, Tesla Model S, The Future of Employment, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, Travis Kalanick, Turing complete, Turing test, uber lyft, undersea cable, urban sprawl, V2 rocket, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, white picket fence, WikiLeaks

Some claim it will be a new gilded age, with humans working less and having more leisure time to pursue the arts and greater knowledge and learning like never before. Those with a negative view of the disruptive nature of AI argue that there will be a net loss of employment for the first time in 250 years as a result of technological advancement. There’s only so many AI or robot ethicists and robot psychologists that we’ll need in the Augmented Age. A study released by Oxford Martin School’s Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology entitled “The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”7 evaluated 702 jobs on a typical online career network, classifying them based on how likely they are to be computerised. The skills and level of education required for each job were taken into consideration too. These features were weighted according to how automatable they were, and according to the engineering obstacles currently preventing automation or computerisation.

In 1950, the bank’s checking accounts, known as current accounts in other parts of the world, were growing at the rate of 23,000 new accounts per month, and before introducing ERMA, its banks were forced to close their doors at 2 p.m. to cope with manual processing. 6 Image credit: Day in the Glass video by Corning 7 The research paper is available at http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 8 These are jobs with 0.98/0.99 probability of disruption through technology. Based on a ±2 per cent confidence interval, this basically is a statistical certainty. 9 “AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs,” Pew Research Center, 6 August 2014. 10 http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/24/us-energy-capacity-grew-an-astounding-418-from-2010-2014/ 11 http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2014/05/29/90551/rooftop-solar-adoption-in-emerging-residential-markets/ 12 A prosumer is both a producer and consumer. 13 Google Green 14 See GreenTechMedia.com analysis, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Utility-Scale-Solar-Reaches-Cost-Parity-With-Natural-Gas-Throughout-America. 15 Alissa Walker, “Tesla’s Gigafactory isn’t Big Enough to Make Its Preordered Batteries,” Gizmodo, 8 May 2015. 16 NBAD, University of Cambridge and PwC, “Financing the Future of Energy,” PV Magazine, 2 March 2015. 17 “Enter the entrepreneurs,” Mintel, 19 November 2014. 18 Cornerstone OnDemand Survey, November 2014. 19 “Generation Y and the Gigging Economy,” Elance, January 2014. 20 Check out https://workfrom.co/. 21 For more on work patterns throughout history, go to https://eh.net/encyclopedia/hours-of-work-in-u-s-history/. 22 “Solving the Mystery of Gen Y Job Hoppers,” Business News Daily, 22 August 2014. 23 Pew Research 2014 24 For more on Jordan Greenhall, go to http://reinventors.net/content/jordan-greenhall/. 25 Statistics taken from http://blog.autismspeaks.org/2010/10/22/got-questions-answers-to-your-questions-from-the-autism-speaks%E2%80%99-science-staff-2/. 26 See www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2013/01/average_age_of_members_of_u_s_congress_are_our_senators_and_representatives.html. 27 “The 113th congress is historically good at not passing bills,” Washington Post, 9 July 2014.


pages: 419 words: 109,241

A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond by Daniel Susskind

3D printing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, blue-collar work, British Empire, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cloud computing, computer age, computer vision, computerized trading, creative destruction, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, drone strike, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, financial innovation, future of work, gig economy, Gini coefficient, Google Glasses, Gödel, Escher, Bach, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacques de Vaucanson, James Hargreaves, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, Metcalfe’s law, natural language processing, Network effects, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, pink-collar, precariat, purchasing power parity, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social intelligence, software is eating the world, sovereign wealth fund, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, strong AI, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, Travis Kalanick, Turing test, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, upwardly mobile, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, wealth creators, working poor, working-age population, Y Combinator

Goos and Manning in “Lousy and Lovely Jobs” were perhaps the first to put the ALM hypothesis to use in this way. 27.  Hans Moravec, Mind Children (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1988). 28.  The origins of this quotation are contested. The earliest recorded version of it comes from the Nobel Prize–winning economist Paul Samuelson, but Samuelson himself later attributed it to Keynes. See http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/07/22/keynes-change-mind/. 29.  Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (January 2017): 254–80. 30.  McKinsey Global Institute, “A Future That Works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity,” January 2017. 31.  James Bessen, an economist at Boston University, was perhaps the first to note this. 32.  Autor, “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs?” 33.  Ibid. 34.  

Frayne, David. The Refusal of Work: The Theory and Practice of Resistance to Work. London: Zed Books, 2015. Freud, Sigmund. Civilization and Its Discontents. New York: W. W. Norton, 2010. Freund, Caroline, and Sarah Oliver. “The Origins of the Superrich: The Billionaire Characteristics Database.” Peterson Institute for International Economics 16, no. 1 (2016). Frey, Carl, and Michael Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (January 2017): 254–80. Frey, Carl, Michael Osborne, Craig Holmes, et al. “Technology at Work v2.0: The Future Is Not What It Used to Be.” Oxford Martin School and Citi (2016). Friedman, Benjamin M. “Born to Be Free.” New York Review of Books, 12 October 2017. Fromm, Eric. Fear of Freedom.


pages: 144 words: 43,356

Surviving AI: The Promise and Peril of Artificial Intelligence by Calum Chace

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Airbnb, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, barriers to entry, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, brain emulation, Buckminster Fuller, cloud computing, computer age, computer vision, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, dematerialisation, discovery of the americas, disintermediation, don't be evil, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Flash crash, friendly AI, Google Glasses, hedonic treadmill, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of agriculture, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, life extension, low skilled workers, Mahatma Gandhi, means of production, mutually assured destruction, Nicholas Carr, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, Peter Thiel, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, South Sea Bubble, speech recognition, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, strong AI, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, theory of mind, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, Vernor Vinge, wage slave, Wall-E, zero-sum game

v=Skfw282fJak (13) The Economist, December 4, 2003 (14) Douglas Adams, The Salmon of Doubt (15) http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/ (16) http://lazooz.org/ (17) https://www.hrw.org/reports/2012/11/19/losing-humanity (18) http://www.ifr.org/industrial-robots/statistics/ (19) “Economic possibilities for our grandchildren”: http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf (20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HW5Fvk8FNOQ (21) http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf (22) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2981946/Self-driving-cars-30-cities-2017-Pilot-projects-aims-mass-roll-driverless-vehicles-safe-they.html (23) http://www.alltrucking.com/faq/truck-drivers-in-the-usa/ (24) http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/bus-drivers.htm (25) http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/taxi-drivers-and-chauffeurs.htm (26) http://www.cristo-barrios.com/discografia/iamus-2/?


pages: 492 words: 118,882

The Blockchain Alternative: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Theory by Kariappa Bheemaiah

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Ada Lovelace, Airbnb, algorithmic trading, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, balance sheet recession, bank run, banks create money, Basel III, basic income, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, bitcoin, blockchain, Bretton Woods, business cycle, business process, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cashless society, cellular automata, central bank independence, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, complexity theory, constrained optimization, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, deskilling, Diane Coyle, discrete time, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, diversification, double entry bookkeeping, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, fiat currency, financial innovation, financial intermediation, Flash crash, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, George Akerlof, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, interest rate derivative, inventory management, invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, large denomination, liquidity trap, London Whale, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, market fundamentalism, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, MITM: man-in-the-middle, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage debt, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Nikolai Kondratiev, offshore financial centre, packet switching, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, Ponzi scheme, precariat, pre–internet, price mechanism, price stability, private sector deleveraging, profit maximization, QR code, quantitative easing, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Ray Kurzweil, Real Time Gross Settlement, rent control, rent-seeking, Satoshi Nakamoto, Satyajit Das, savings glut, seigniorage, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart contracts, software as a service, software is eating the world, speech recognition, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, supply-chain management, technology bubble, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Great Moderation, the market place, The Nature of the Firm, the payments system, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, trade liberalization, transaction costs, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, Von Neumann architecture, Washington Consensus

SIDEBAR 3-1: HOW TECHNOLOGY IS REPLACING SKILLS AND TASKS Source: “Inequality, Technology and Job Polarization of the Youth Labor Market in Europe” (Bheemaiah & Smith, 2015). The growth of information and communication technologies (ICTs) has had broad encompassing effects on various sectors of employment, education, and societal structures. Understanding the dynamics of technology’s impact on the future of employment thus requires a holistic analysis of the range of tasks currently being automated in various sectors of employment. This in turn provides us with a heuristic connection between education, employment, income levels, and ICT. The impact technology, and more specifically ICT technology, has had on inequality and changing the structural foundations of the labor market, has been a central theme for researchers for quite some time (see, Acemoglu, 2010; Autor et al., 2003; Michaels et al., 2010).

Understanding Money and Macroeconomic Policy. In M. J. Mazzucato, Rethinking Capitalism: Economics and Policy for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth (pp. 47–65). Wiley. Nir Jaimovich, H. E. (2012). The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). OECD. (2010). SMEs, Entrepreneurship and Innovation. OECD. Osborne, C. B. (2013). The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Oxford: Oxford Martin School. Paine, T. (1795). Agrarian Justice. Retrieved from Geolibertarian: http://geolib. com/essays/paine.tom/agjst.html Paul Beaudry, D. A. (2013). The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper 18901. Raj Chetty, N. H. (2015). The Effects of Exposure to Better Neighborhoods on Children: New Evidence from the Moving to Opportunity Experiment.


pages: 428 words: 121,717

Warnings by Richard A. Clarke

active measures, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anti-communist, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, Bernie Madoff, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, discovery of penicillin, double helix, Elon Musk, failed state, financial thriller, fixed income, Flash crash, forensic accounting, friendly AI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge worker, Maui Hawaii, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, mouse model, Nate Silver, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, Ponzi scheme, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart grid, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Y2K

Bloomberg via Shobhit Seth, “The World of High Frequency Algorithmic Trading,” Investopedia, Sept. 16, 2015, www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091615/world-high-frequency-algorithmic-trading.asp (accessed Oct. 8, 2016). 23. Andrew Ng, “Is A.I. an Existential Threat to Humanity?” Quora, https://www.quora.com/Is-AI-an-existential-threat-to-humanity/answer/Andrew-Ng (accessed Oct. 8, 2016). 24. The study looks at jobs at risk from weak AI and robotics. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osbourne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Sept. 17, 2013, Oxford Martin School, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf (accessed Oct. 8, 2016). 25. Nicholas Carr, The Glass Cage: Automation and Us (New York: Norton, 2014), reviewed in Sean Braswell, “All Rise for Chief Justice Robot!” Ozy.com, www.ozy.com/immodest-proposal/all-rise-for-chief-justice-robot/41131 (accessed Oct. 8, 2016). 26. McKinsey Global Institute, referenced in Lakshmi Sandhana, “47% of U.S.


pages: 431 words: 129,071

Selfie: How We Became So Self-Obsessed and What It's Doing to Us by Will Storr

Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, bitcoin, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, gig economy, greed is good, invisible hand, job automation, John Markoff, Kickstarter, longitudinal study, Lyft, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mont Pelerin Society, mortgage debt, Mother of all demos, Nixon shock, Peter Thiel, QWERTY keyboard, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Tim Cook: Apple, Travis Kalanick, twin studies, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, War on Poverty, Whole Earth Catalog

facilitating and accelerating the neoliberal project of globalization immensely: Globalisation, Manfred B. Steger (Oxford University Press, 2013), p. 35. There are 1.7 million truck drivers in the US: ‘Robots could replace 1.7 million American truckers in the next decade’, Natalie Kitroeff, Los Angeles Times, 25 September 2016. by 2033, nearly half of all US jobs: ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?’, Carl Benedikt Frey et al., 17 September 2013. Available at: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/­downloads/academic/­The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. polarization between left and right has been increasing inexorably: The Politics of Resentment, Katherine J. Cramer (University of Chicago Press, 2016), p. 2. One investigation found that in its final three months: ‘Viral Fake Election News Outperformed Real News On Facebook In Final Months Of The US Election’, Craig Silverman, BuzzFeed, 16 November 2016.


pages: 207 words: 59,298

The Gig Economy: A Critical Introduction by Jamie Woodcock, Mark Graham

Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, collective bargaining, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, David Graeber, deindustrialization, disintermediation, en.wikipedia.org, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, global value chain, informal economy, information asymmetry, inventory management, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, knowledge economy, Lyft, mass immigration, means of production, Network effects, new economy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, planetary scale, precariat, rent-seeking, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, transaction costs, Travis Kalanick, two-sided market, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, union organizing, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional

Available at: https://www.wired.com/2015/10/why-homejoy-failed/ Fear, C. (2018) ‘Without our brain and muscle not a single wheel can turn’: The IWW Couriers Network. Notes from Below, 3. Available at: https://notesfrombelow.org/article/without-our-brain-and-muscle Fredman, S. (2003) Women at work: The broken promise of flexicurity. Industrial Law Journal, 33(4): 229–319. Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A. (2017) The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114: 254–80. Fudge, J. (2017) The future of the standard employment relationship: Labour law, new institutional economics and old power resource theory. Journal of Industrial Relations, 59(3): 374–92. Gandini, A. (2016) The Reputation Economy: Understanding Knowledge Work in Digital Society. London: Palgrave Macmillan.


pages: 918 words: 257,605

The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by Shoshana Zuboff

Amazon Web Services, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, blue-collar work, book scanning, Broken windows theory, California gold rush, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, citizen journalism, cloud computing, collective bargaining, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, corporate personhood, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, dogs of the Dow, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, facts on the ground, Ford paid five dollars a day, future of work, game design, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, hive mind, impulse control, income inequality, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Jean Tirole, job automation, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, linked data, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, means of production, multi-sided market, Naomi Klein, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Occupy movement, off grid, PageRank, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, pattern recognition, Paul Buchheit, performance metric, Philip Mirowski, precision agriculture, price mechanism, profit maximization, profit motive, recommendation engine, refrigerator car, RFID, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Bork, Robert Mercer, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, slashdot, smart cities, Snapchat, social graph, social web, software as a service, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, structural adjustment programs, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, two-sided market, union organizing, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, winner-take-all economy, Wolfgang Streeck

Philipp Brandes, Roger Wattenhofer, and Stefan Schmid, “Which Tasks of a Job Are Susceptible to Computerization?” Bulletin of EATCS 3, no. 120 (2016), http://bulletin.eatcs.org/index.php/beatcs/article/view/467; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (September 17, 2013): 254–80; Seth G. Benzell et al., “Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement” (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015), http://www.nber.org/papers/w20941; Carl Benedikt Frey, “Doing Capitalism in the Digital Age,” Financial Times, October 1, 2014, https://www.ft.com/content/293780fc-4245-11e4-9818-00144feabdc0. 14. Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment”; Martin Krzywdzinski, “Automation, Skill Requirements and Labour-Use Strategies: High-Wage and Low-Wage Approaches to High-Tech Manufacturing in the Automotive Industry,” New Technology, Work and Employment 32, no. 3 (2017): 247–67, https://doi.org/10.1111/ntwe.12100; Frey, “Doing Capitalism”; William Lazonick, “Labor in the Twenty-First Century: The Top 0.1% and the Disappearing Middle-Class” (working paper, Institute for New Economic Thinking, February 2015), https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/research-papers/labor-in-the-twenty-first-century-the-top-0-1-and-the-disappearing-middle-class; Dirk Antonczyk, Thomas DeLeire, and Bernd Fitzenberger, “Polarization and Rising Wage Inequality: Comparing the U.S. and Germany” (IZA Discussion Paper, Institute for the Study of Labor, March 2010), https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp4842.html; Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W.

Frey and Osborne’s much-cited 2013 study of technological unemployment sounded the same theme: “Moreover, a company called SmartAction now provides call computerisation solutions that use ML technology and advanced speech recognition to improve upon conventional interactive voice response systems, realising cost savings of 60 to 80 percent over an outsourced call center consisting of human labour.” See Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (2013): 254–80. See also a follow-up study: Philipp Brandes, Roger Wattenhofer, and Stefan Schmid, “Which Tasks of a Job Are Susceptible to Computerization?” Bulletin of EATCS 3, no. 120 (2016), http://bulletin.eatcs.org/index.php/beatcs/article/view/467. 15. “Dave Limp, Exec Behind Amazon’s Alexa: Full Transcript of Interview,” Fortune, July 14, 2016, http://fortune.com/2016/07/14/amazon-alexa-david-limp-transcript. 16.


pages: 596 words: 163,682

The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind by Raghuram Rajan

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, airline deregulation, Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, banking crisis, barriers to entry, basic income, battle of ideas, Bernie Sanders, blockchain, borderless world, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Build a better mousetrap, business cycle, business process, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, central bank independence, computer vision, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate raider, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation / currency intervention, data acquisition, David Brooks, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, facts on the ground, financial innovation, financial repression, full employment, future of work, global supply chain, high net worth, housing crisis, illegal immigration, income inequality, industrial cluster, intangible asset, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, means of production, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, race to the bottom, Richard Thaler, Robert Bork, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Sam Peltzman, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, superstar cities, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, trade route, transaction costs, transfer pricing, Travis Kalanick, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, Walter Mischel, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working-age population, World Values Survey, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game

Red states won’t let them,” The New York Times, July 6, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/06/upshot/blue-cities-want-to-make-their-own-rules-red-states-wont-let-them.html. 11. Garry Kasparov, “The Chess Master and the Computer,” The New York Review of Books, February 11, 2010, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2010/02/11/the-chess-master-and-the-computer/; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization?,” Oxford Martin School (September 2013), https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. CHAPTER 11: REINVIGORATING THE THIRD PILLAR 1. Peter Coy, “Keeping Up With the Joneses: Neighbors of Lottery Winners Are More Likely to Go Bankrupt,” Bloomberg Businessweek, May 29, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-29/keeping-up-with-the-joneses-neighbors-of-lottery-winners-are-more-likely-to-go-bankrupt. 2.


pages: 566 words: 163,322

The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World by Ruchir Sharma

Asian financial crisis, backtesting, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, business climate, business cycle, business process, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, colonial rule, Commodity Super-Cycle, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, currency peg, dark matter, debt deflation, deglobalization, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Freestyle chess, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, inflation targeting, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, lateral thinking, liberal capitalism, Malacca Straits, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, mass immigration, megacity, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, mittelstand, moral hazard, New Economic Geography, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, pets.com, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price stability, Productivity paradox, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, secular stagnation, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Kuznets, smart cities, Snapchat, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, The Future of Employment, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, trade route, tulip mania, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, unorthodox policies, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, working-age population

Hokenson, “Retiring the Current Model of Retirement,” Hokenson Research, March 2004. 5 Andrew Mason, “Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developing and Developed Countries,” United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, August 31–September 2, 2005. 6 “Women, Business, and the Law 2014,” World Bank, 2013. 7 Peter Hessler, “Learning to Speak Lingerie,” New Yorker, August 10, 2015. 8 “Fair Play: More Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation,” International Monetary Fund, 2015. 9 Jim Yong Kim, “CNBC Excerpts: CNBC’s Sara Eisen Speaks with World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Alley’ Today,” transcript of interview by Sara Eisen, CNBC, October 1 2015. 10 Caglar Ozden and Mathis Warner, “Immigrants versus Natives? Displacement and Job Creation,” World Bank, 2014. 11 BCA Research, “The End of Europe’s Welfare State,” Weekly Report, June 26, 2015. 12 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford University Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013. 13 David Rotman, “How Technology Is Destroying Jobs,” MIT Technology Review, June 12, 2013. 14 John Markoff, “The Next Wave,” Edge, July 16, 2015. Chapter 2: The Circle of Life 1 Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World and the Rise of the Rest (New York: Norton, 2008). 2 Jonathan Wheatley, “Brazil’s Leader Blames White People for Crisis,” Financial Times, March 27, 2009. 3 Global Emerging Markets Equity Team, “Tales from the Emerging World: The Myths of Middle-Class Revolution,” Morgan Stanley Investment Management, July 16, 2013. 4 “The Quest for Prosperity,” Economist, May 15, 2007. 5 Saeed Naqvi, “A Little Left of Self Interest,” The Friday Times, June 26, 2015. 6 William Easterly, The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor (New York: Basic Books, 2014).

International Monetary Fund, October 2015. Fatima, Ambreen, and Humera Sultana. “Tracing Out the U-Shape Relationship Between Famale Labor Force Participation Rate and Economic Development for Pakistan.” International Journal of Social Economics 36, nos. 1–2 (2009): 182–98. Fernandes, Sharon. “India, Second Biggest Loser of Rich Citizens.” Times of India, July 14, 2015. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Compensation.” Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013). Fulwood, Alice, and Edward Teather. “Malaysia by the Numbers.” UBS Research, October 2015. Garland, Kris. “Demographics Matter.” Strategas, September 22, 2015. “Gary Marcus on the Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Brain.” Hosted by Russ Roberts. Library of Economics and Liberty, December 15, 2014.


Work in the Future The Automation Revolution-Palgrave MacMillan (2019) by Robert Skidelsky Nan Craig

3D printing, Airbnb, algorithmic trading, Amazon Web Services, anti-work, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, basic income, business cycle, cloud computing, collective bargaining, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, data is the new oil, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, deskilling, disintermediation, Donald Trump, Erik Brynjolfsson, feminist movement, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, gig economy, global supply chain, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, Loebner Prize, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, moral panic, Network effects, new economy, off grid, pattern recognition, post-work, Ronald Coase, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Steve Jobs, strong AI, technoutopianism, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, wealth creators, working poor

A concern is therefore that this time is not all that different. References Frey, C. B. (2019). The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Frey, C. B., Berger, T., & Chen, C. (2018). Political Machinery: Did Robots Swing the 2016 US Presidential Election? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(3), 418–442. Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254–280. Gramlich, J. (2017). Most Americans Would Favor Policies to Limit Job and Wage Losses Caused by Automation. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/10/09/most-americanswould-favor-policies-to-limit-job-and-wage-lossescaused-by-automation/ Part IV Possibilities and Limitations for AI: What Can’t Machines Do?


pages: 242 words: 73,728

Give People Money by Annie Lowrey

"Robert Solow", affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, airport security, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, clean water, collective bargaining, computer age, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, deindustrialization, desegregation, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, ending welfare as we know it, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, full employment, gender pay gap, gig economy, Google Earth, Home mortgage interest deduction, income inequality, indoor plumbing, information asymmetry, Jaron Lanier, jitney, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, late capitalism, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, mass incarceration, McMansion, Menlo Park, mobile money, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, obamacare, Peter Thiel, post scarcity, post-work, Potemkin village, precariat, randomized controlled trial, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Bork, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, theory of mind, total factor productivity, Turing test, two tier labour market, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, uranium enrichment, War on Poverty, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, women in the workforce, working poor, World Values Survey, Y Combinator

with India contemplating one: Rachel Roberts, “Indian Politicians Consider Universal Basic Income Following Successful Trials,” Independent, July 28, 2017. adopted in California: Owen Poindexter, telephone interview by author, Sept. 27, 2017. exceeded activists’ expectations: Enno Schmidt, telephone interview by author, May 17, 2016. half of American jobs: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment” (working paper, the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, University of Oxford, Sept. 17, 2013). truck drivers: Natalie Kitroeff, “Robots Could Replace 1.7 Million American Truckers in the Next Decade,” Los Angeles Times, Sept. 25, 2016. warehouse box packers: Natalie Kitroeff, “Warehouses Promised Lots of Jobs, but Robot Workforce Slows Hiring,” Los Angeles Times, Dec. 4, 2016.


pages: 491 words: 77,650

Humans as a Service: The Promise and Perils of Work in the Gig Economy by Jeremias Prassl

3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrei Shleifer, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, call centre, cashless society, Clayton Christensen, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Erik Brynjolfsson, full employment, future of work, George Akerlof, gig economy, global supply chain, hiring and firing, income inequality, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kickstarter, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, market friction, means of production, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, pattern recognition, platform as a service, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, regulatory arbitrage, remote working, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Rosa Parks, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Simon Singh, software as a service, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, transaction costs, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, two tier labour market, two-sided market, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, union organizing, working-age population

., 325. 3. President John F. Kennedy, News Conference 24 (14 February 1962), https://www. jfklibrary.org/Research/Research-Aids/Ready-Reference/Press-Conferences/ News-Conference-24.aspx, archived at https://perma.cc/LDS6-Y8X7 4. John Maynard Keynes, ‘Economic possibilities for our grandchildren’, in Essays in Persuasion (Palgrave Macmillan 2010), 325. 5. Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford Martin School 2013). 6. Ibid., 38, 42. 7. Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (W. W. Norton & Co. 2014), 10. 8. Cynthia Estlund, ‘What should we do after work? Automation and employ- ment law’ (2017) New York University Public Law and Legal Theory Working Papers No. 578, 21. 9.


pages: 261 words: 78,884

$2.00 A Day: Living on Almost Nothing in America by Kathryn Edin, H. Luke Shaefer

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, business cycle, clean water, ending welfare as we know it, future of work, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, impulse control, indoor plumbing, informal economy, low-wage service sector, mass incarceration, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, The Future of Employment, War on Poverty, working poor, Works Progress Administration

. [>] “the political spectrum”: Anne Roder and Mark Elliott, “Stimulating Opportunity: An Evaluation of ARRA-Funded Subsidized Employment Programs” (Economic Mobility Corporation, New York, September 2013), http://economicmobilitycorp.org/uploads/stimulating-opportunity-full-report.pdf. [>] “any given moment”: Lawrence H. Summers, “Lawrence H. Summers on the Economic Challenge of the Future: Jobs,” Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2014, http://www.wsj.com/articles/lawrence-h-summers-on-the-economic-challenge-of-the-future-jobs-1404762501. [>] all occupational categories: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (paper prepared for the Machines and Employment workshop, Oxford University Engineering Sciences Department and Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, Oxford, UK, September 17, 2013), http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314. [>] their wages alone: Halpern-Meekin et al., It’s Not Like I’m Poor. [>] a meaningful degree: Congressional Budget Office, “The Effects of a Minimum-Wage Increase on Employment and Family Income” (Washington, DC, February 2014), https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/44995-MinimumWage.pdf. [>] boost economic growth: David Cooper, “Raising the Federal Minimum Wage to $10.10 Would Lift Wages for Millions and Provide a Modest Economic Boost” (EPI Briefing Paper No. 371, Economic Policy Institute, Washington, DC, December 19, 2013), http://s1.epi.org/files/2014/EPI-1010-minimum-wage.pdf. [>] part-time workers: Center for Law and Social Policy, Retail Action Project, and Women Employed, “Tackling Unstable and Unpredictable Work Schedules.” [>] revise its procedures: Jodi Kantor, “Starbucks to Revise Policies to End Irregular Schedules for Its 130,000 Baristas,” New York Times, August 14, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/15/us/starbucks-to-revise-work-scheduling-policies.html?


pages: 307 words: 88,180

AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order by Kai-Fu Lee

AI winter, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, business cycle, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crony capitalism, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Google Chrome, happiness index / gross national happiness, if you build it, they will come, ImageNet competition, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Lean Startup, low skilled workers, Lyft, mandatory minimum, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, minimum viable product, natural language processing, new economy, pattern recognition, pirate software, profit maximization, QR code, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Robert Mercer, Rodney Brooks, Rubik’s Cube, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, special economic zone, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, strong AI, The Future of Employment, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, urban planning, Y Combinator

$148 billion invested: Dana Olsen, “A Record-Setting Year: 2017 VC Activity in 3 Charts,” Pitchbook, December 15, 2017, https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/a-record-setting-year-2017-vc-activity-in-3-charts. leapt to $15.2 billion: “Top AI Trends to Watch in 2018,” CB Insights, February 2018, https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/artificial-intelligence-trends-2018/. a dire prediction: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Automation,” Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, September 17, 2013, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf. just 9 percent of jobs: Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory, and Ulrich Zierahn, “The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis,” OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers, no. 189, May 14, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en. 38 percent of jobs: Richard Berriman and John Hawksworth, “Will Robots Steal Our Jobs?


pages: 323 words: 90,868

The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, and Status in the Twenty-First Century by Ryan Avent

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, Airbnb, American energy revolution, assortative mating, autonomous vehicles, Bakken shale, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collective bargaining, computer age, creative destruction, dark matter, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, falling living standards, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Ford paid five dollars a day, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, gig economy, global supply chain, global value chain, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, intangible asset, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, inventory management, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, knowledge economy, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, mass immigration, means of production, new economy, performance metric, pets.com, post-work, price mechanism, quantitative easing, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reshoring, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, software is eating the world, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, very high income, working-age population

Meyer, III, Stephen, The Five Dollar Day: Labor Management and Social Control in the Ford Motor Company, 1908-1921 (New York, NY: SUNY Press, 1981), quoted in ibid.   6. Hall, Jonathan, and Krueger, Alan, ‘An Analysis of the Labor Market for Uber’s Driver-Partners in the United States’, Working Paper, Princeton University, Industrial Relations Section, January 2015.   7. Autor, David, ‘The “Task Approach” to Labour Markets: An Overview’, Journal for Labor Market Research, January 2013; Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Osborne, Michael, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?’, 17 September 2013.   8. US Census Bureau, Educational Attainment, CPS Historical Time Series Tables.   9. OECD, Population with Tertiary Education. 10. Abramovitz, Moses, and David, Paul, ‘Convergence and Deferred Catch-up: Productivity Leadership and the Waning of American Exceptionalism’, from Landau, Ralph, Taylor, Timothy, and Wright, Gavin, eds., The Mosaic of Economic Growth (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995). 11. 


pages: 366 words: 94,209

Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus: How Growth Became the Enemy of Prosperity by Douglas Rushkoff

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrew Keen, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, business process, buy and hold, buy low sell high, California gold rush, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, centralized clearinghouse, citizen journalism, clean water, cloud computing, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, colonial exploitation, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate personhood, corporate raider, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, disintermediation, diversified portfolio, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, fiat currency, Firefox, Flash crash, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global village, Google bus, Howard Rheingold, IBM and the Holocaust, impulse control, income inequality, index fund, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, loss aversion, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, medical bankruptcy, minimum viable product, Mitch Kapor, Naomi Klein, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, passive investing, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, recommendation engine, reserve currency, RFID, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social graph, software patent, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, trade route, transportation-network company, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, unpaid internship, Y Combinator, young professional, zero-sum game, Zipcar

The six volumes it published were largely ignored, but they did serve as the basis for much of Daniel Bell’s highly regarded work in the 1970s about what he called the “post-industrial economy.” His main recommendation was to make our technological progress less “random” and “destructive” by matching it with upgraded political institutions.44 Today, it’s MIT’s Brynjolfsson and McAfee who appear to be leading the conversation about technology’s impact on the future of employment—what they call the “great decoupling.” Their extensive research shows, beyond reasonable doubt, that technological progress eliminates jobs and leaves average workers worse off than they were before. “It’s the great paradox of our era,” Brynjolfsson explains. “Productivity is at record levels, innovation has never been faster, and yet at the same time, we have a falling median income and we have fewer jobs.


pages: 330 words: 91,805

Peers Inc: How People and Platforms Are Inventing the Collaborative Economy and Reinventing Capitalism by Robin Chase

Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Andy Kessler, banking crisis, barriers to entry, basic income, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, business climate, call centre, car-free, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, commoditize, congestion charging, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, decarbonisation, different worldview, do-ocracy, don't be evil, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Ferguson, Missouri, Firefox, frictionless, Gini coefficient, hive mind, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Lyft, means of production, megacity, Minecraft, minimum viable product, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, openstreetmap, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, peer-to-peer model, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, TaskRabbit, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, Turing test, turn-by-turn navigation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, Zipcar

* * * We’ve covered the basics of unlocking excess capacity, building platforms for participation, and engaging the power of peers. In the next chapter I want to delve deeper and look into what happens when we combine the economics of excess capacity with the discipline of the platforms and the diversity of large numbers of peers. The Peers Inc collaboration points to a viable, scalable, humane way forward in a world overshadowed by anxiety about the future of employment, the scarcity of resources, the rapid pace of change, and the future of capitalism on a finite planet. It offers up discrete and unique roles for governments, companies, institutions, entrepreneurs, and individuals. When this is done well, seemingly magical and unexpected powers result. We stand at the edge of a waterfall, with the momentum of 7 billion lives, two hundred governments, and hundreds of thousands of institutions pressing us forward.


pages: 344 words: 94,332

The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity by Lynda Gratton, Andrew Scott

3D printing, Airbnb, assortative mating, carbon footprint, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, disruptive innovation, diversification, Downton Abbey, Erik Brynjolfsson, falling living standards, financial independence, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Google Glasses, indoor plumbing, information retrieval, intangible asset, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, New Economic Geography, old age dependency ratio, pattern recognition, pension reform, Peter Thiel, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, side project, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, The Future of Employment, uber lyft, women in the workforce, young professional

Norton & Company, 2014). 10Ford, The Rise of the Robots. 11Brynjolfsson and McAfee, The Second Machine Age. 12Autor, D. H., Levy, F. and Murnane, R. J., ‘The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (4) (2003): 1279–334. 13Beaudry, P., Green, D. A. and Sand, B.M., ‘The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks’, NBER Working Paper 18901 (2013). 14Frey, C.B. and Osbourne, M.A., ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization?’ (Oxford University mimeo, 2013). 15Polanyi, M., Personal Knowledge. Towards a Post Critical Philosophy (Routledge, 1958/98). 16Moravec, H., ‘When Will Computer Hardware Match the Human Brain?’, Journal of Evolution and Technology 1 (1) (1998). Chapter 4: Intangibles: Focusing on the priceless 1See for example Johns, T. and Gratton, L., ‘The Third Wave of Virtual Work’, Harvard Business Review (2013). 2Oscar Wilde’s famous quote (from Lady Windermere’s Fan [1892]), ‘A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing’ comes to mind here – a quote often thrown at economists. 3New Testament, Matthew 19.24: ‘And again I say unto you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich person to enter the kingdom of God’; Qu’ran: ‘Let not your worldly goods or your children make you oblivious of the remembrance of God: for if any behave thus – it is they, they who are the losers.’


pages: 443 words: 98,113

The Corruption of Capitalism: Why Rentiers Thrive and Work Does Not Pay by Guy Standing

3D printing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, basic income, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Bernie Sanders, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, bilateral investment treaty, Bonfire of the Vanities, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, cashless society, central bank independence, centre right, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, credit crunch, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, debt deflation, declining real wages, deindustrialization, disruptive innovation, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, ending welfare as we know it, eurozone crisis, falling living standards, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Firefox, first-past-the-post, future of work, gig economy, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Growth in a Time of Debt, housing crisis, income inequality, information retrieval, intangible asset, invention of the steam engine, investor state dispute settlement, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, labour market flexibility, light touch regulation, Long Term Capital Management, lump of labour, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market clearing, Martin Wolf, means of production, mini-job, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, Neil Kinnock, non-tariff barriers, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, nudge unit, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open economy, openstreetmap, patent troll, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, precariat, quantitative easing, remote working, rent control, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Right to Buy, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Kuznets, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, structural adjustment programs, TaskRabbit, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, the payments system, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, Y Combinator, zero-sum game, Zipcar

Rifkin, The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era (Kirkwood: Putnam Publishing Group, 1995); M. Snyder, ‘Robots and computers could take half our jobs within the next 20 years’, Economic Collapse, 30 September 2013; R. B. Freeman, ‘Who owns the robots rules the world’, IZA World of Labor, 2014. Paul Mason, for example, stated bluntly that IT ‘has reduced the need for work’. 19 C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford: University of Oxford, 17 September 2013), mimeo. 20 L. Elliott, ‘Robots threaten 15m UK jobs, says Bank of England’s chief economist’, The Guardian, 12 November 2015. 21 J. Bessen, ‘The automation paradox’, The Atlantic, 19 January 2016. 22 The growing merger of physical, digital and biological technologies has been dubbed the Fourth Industrial Revolution.


pages: 360 words: 100,991

Heart of the Machine: Our Future in a World of Artificial Emotional Intelligence by Richard Yonck

3D printing, AI winter, artificial general intelligence, Asperger Syndrome, augmented reality, Berlin Wall, brain emulation, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, computer age, computer vision, crowdsourcing, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, friendly AI, ghettoisation, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of writing, Jacques de Vaucanson, job automation, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Loebner Prize, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Metcalfe’s law, neurotypical, Oculus Rift, old age dependency ratio, pattern recognition, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Skype, social intelligence, software as a service, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, telepresence, telepresence robot, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, theory of mind, Turing test, twin studies, undersea cable, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Review, working-age population, zero day

“Addictive behaviors and addiction-prone personality traits: Associations with a dopamine multilocus genetic profile.” Addictive Behaviors, 38, 2306–2312. 2013. 26. Wright, J., Hensley, C. “From Animal Cruelty to Serial Murder: Applying the Graduation Hypothesis.” International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 47 (1): 71–88. February 1, 2003. 27. Frey, C.B., Osborne, M.A. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, University of Oxford. 2013; Rutkin, A.H. “Report Suggests Nearly Half of U.S. Jobs Are Vulnerable to Computerization.” Technology Review. September 12, 2013. 28. Stromberg, J. “Neuroscience Explores Why Humans Feel Empathy for Robots.” Smithsonian. April 23, 2013. Chapter 14 1.


pages: 463 words: 105,197

Radical Markets: Uprooting Capitalism and Democracy for a Just Society by Eric Posner, E. Weyl

3D printing, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, anti-communist, augmented reality, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, business process, buy and hold, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collective bargaining, commoditize, Corn Laws, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, endowment effect, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, feminist movement, financial deregulation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, George Akerlof, global supply chain, guest worker program, hydraulic fracturing, Hyperloop, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, income per capita, index fund, informal economy, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jean Tirole, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, Landlord’s Game, liberal capitalism, low skilled workers, Lyft, market bubble, market design, market friction, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, negative equity, Network effects, obamacare, offshore financial centre, open borders, Pareto efficiency, passive investing, patent troll, Paul Samuelson, performance metric, plutocrats, Plutocrats, pre–internet, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Rory Sutherland, Second Machine Age, second-price auction, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, special economic zone, spectrum auction, speech recognition, statistical model, stem cell, telepresence, Thales and the olive presses, Thales of Miletus, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, urban planning, Vanguard fund, women in the workforce, Zipcar

With a slight abuse of nomenclature, we use complexity to refer to what a problem requires in a typical or “average” case in practice rather than what it can be proven to require in the worst case. 16. https://news.microsoft.com/features/democratizing-ai/. 17. A monthly Netflix subscription is $10 and a typical subscriber in 2015 watched 1.5 hours daily according to Netflix’s publicly released statistics. 18. Foer, World Without Mind. 19. Carl Benedikt Frey & Michael A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?, 114 Technological Forecasting & Social Change 254 (2017). 20. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets (National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 23285, 2017). 21. Arrieta-Ibarra et al., Should We Treat Data as Labor? 22. David Autor et al., The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms (National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 23396, 2017). 23.


The Future of Money by Bernard Lietaer

agricultural Revolution, banks create money, barriers to entry, Bretton Woods, business cycle, clean water, complexity theory, corporate raider, dematerialisation, discounted cash flows, diversification, fiat currency, financial deregulation, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, full employment, George Gilder, German hyperinflation, global reserve currency, Golden Gate Park, Howard Rheingold, informal economy, invention of the telephone, invention of writing, Lao Tzu, Mahatma Gandhi, means of production, microcredit, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Norbert Wiener, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, pattern recognition, post-industrial society, price stability, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, seigniorage, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, The Future of Employment, the market place, the payments system, Thomas Davenport, trade route, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, working poor

However, nobody can claim that technological shifts are not generating massive displacements of jobs, fundamental changes of the qualifications required to perform a function. If the changes are rapid as is the case with Information Technology such job displacements are just as destructive as permanent job losses. How many steelworkers can realistically expect to be retrained as computer programmers or corporate lawyers, however strong the demand is in these sectors. William Bridges, an expert on the future of employment, has concluded that 'within a generation, our scramble for jobs will look like a fight over deck chairs on the Titanic. To add insult to injury, the only societies in the world today that work fewer than four hours a day are the surviving 'primitive' hunter-gatherer tribes, living roughly as they have done over the past 20,000 years. Similarly, the common agricultural laborer in 10th to 13th century mediaeval Europe spent less than half of his waking hours at work.


pages: 378 words: 110,518

Postcapitalism: A Guide to Our Future by Paul Mason

Alfred Russel Wallace, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Basel III, basic income, Bernie Madoff, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, bitcoin, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business cycle, business process, butterfly effect, call centre, capital controls, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, Claude Shannon: information theory, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, Corn Laws, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Graeber, deglobalization, deindustrialization, deskilling, discovery of the americas, Downton Abbey, drone strike, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, eurozone crisis, factory automation, financial repression, Firefox, Fractional reserve banking, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, future of work, game design, income inequality, inflation targeting, informal economy, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, late capitalism, low skilled workers, market clearing, means of production, Metcalfe's law, microservices, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage debt, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, Pearl River Delta, post-industrial society, precariat, price mechanism, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, reserve currency, RFID, Richard Stallman, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, secular stagnation, sharing economy, Stewart Brand, structural adjustment programs, supply-chain management, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Transnistria, union organizing, universal basic income, urban decay, urban planning, Vilfredo Pareto, wages for housework, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce

Shailendra K, ‘AI Applications to Metal Stamping Die Design: A Review’, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, vol. 4, 2010 33. OECD, ‘Measuring the Internet Economy: A Contribution to the Research Agenda’, OECD Digital Economy Papers, 226, OECD Publishing, 2013 34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k43gjg6r8jf-en 35. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ocwage.pdf 36. C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’, Oxford Martin School Working Paper, 2013, p. 38, http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/news-release-oxford-martin-school-study-shows-nearly-half-us-jobs-could-be-risk-computerisation 37. A. Gorz Critique of Economic Reason (London, 1989), p. 127 7. BEAUTIFUL TROUBLEMAKERS 1. R. Freeman, ‘The Great Doubling: Labor in the New Global Economy’.


pages: 416 words: 112,268

Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control by Stuart Russell

3D printing, Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Alfred Russel Wallace, Andrew Wiles, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, blockchain, brain emulation, Cass Sunstein, Claude Shannon: information theory, complexity theory, computer vision, connected car, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ernest Rutherford, Flash crash, full employment, future of work, Gerolamo Cardano, ImageNet competition, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of the wheel, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Mark Zuckerberg, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, NP-complete, openstreetmap, P = NP, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, Pierre-Simon Laplace, positional goods, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, profit maximization, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, RFID, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, social intelligence, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, superintelligent machines, Thales of Miletus, The Future of Employment, Thomas Bayes, Thorstein Veblen, transport as a service, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, uranium enrichment, Von Neumann architecture, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web application, zero-sum game

See artificial intelligence (AI) intelligent personal assistants, 67–71, 101 commonsense modeling and, 68–69 design template for, 69–70 education systems, 70 health systems, 69–70 personal finance systems, 70 privacy considerations, 70–71 shortcomings of early systems, 67–68 stimulus–response templates and, 67 understanding content, improvements in, 68 International Atomic Energy Agency, 249 Internet of Things (IoT), 65 interpersonal services as the future of employment, 122–24 algorithmic bias and, 128–30 decisions affecting people, use of machines in, 126–28 robots built in humanoid form and, 124–26 intractable problems, 38–39 inverse reinforcement learning, 191–93 IQ, 48 Ishiguro, Hiroshi, 125 is-ought problem, 167 “it’s complicated” argument, 147–48 “it’s impossible” argument, 149–50 “it’s too soon to worry about it” argument, 150–52 jellyfish, 16 Jeopardy!


pages: 370 words: 107,983

Rage Inside the Machine: The Prejudice of Algorithms, and How to Stop the Internet Making Bigots of Us All by Robert Elliott Smith

Ada Lovelace, affirmative action, AI winter, Alfred Russel Wallace, Amazon Mechanical Turk, animal electricity, autonomous vehicles, Black Swan, British Empire, cellular automata, citizen journalism, Claude Shannon: information theory, combinatorial explosion, corporate personhood, correlation coefficient, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, desegregation, discovery of DNA, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, Fellow of the Royal Society, feminist movement, Filter Bubble, Flash crash, Gerolamo Cardano, gig economy, Gödel, Escher, Bach, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, Jacquard loom, Jacques de Vaucanson, John Harrison: Longitude, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, natural language processing, new economy, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, p-value, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, performance metric, Pierre-Simon Laplace, precariat, profit maximization, profit motive, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, stochastic process, telemarketer, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Malthus, traveling salesman, Turing machine, Turing test, twin studies, Vilfredo Pareto, Von Neumann architecture, women in the workforce

Chapter 6 1Ken Robinson and Lou Aronica, 2015, Creative Schools: The Grassroots Revolution that’s Transforming Education. New York: Viking. 2Neil Johnson, Guannan Zhao, Eric Hunsader, Hong Qi, Nicholas Johnson, Jing Meng and Brian Tivnan, 2013, Abrupt Rise of New Machine Ecology Beyond Human Response Time. Scientific Reports, 3(2627), www.researchgate.net/publication/256490201_Abrupt_rise_of_new_machine_ecology_beyond_human_response_time 3Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, 2017, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114: 254–280, www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516302244 4Matt Day and Benjamin Romano, 2018, Amazon Has Patented a System that Would Put Workers in a Cage, on Top of a Robot. Seattle Times, www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-has-patented-a-system-that-would-put-workers-in-a-cage-on-top-of-a-robot/ 5Ayhan Aytes, 2013, Return of the Crowds: Mechanical Turk and Neoliberal States of Exception.


Bit Rot by Douglas Coupland

3D printing, Airbnb, airport security, bitcoin, Burning Man, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Google Glasses, Guggenheim Bilbao, index card, jimmy wales, Lyft, Marshall McLuhan, Maui Hawaii, McJob, Menlo Park, nuclear paranoia, Pepto Bismol, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Sand Hill Road, Silicon Valley, Skype, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Ted Kaczynski, The Future of Employment, uber lyft, young professional

Temp (1) Temp Enlivens Life-Sucking Meeting I’ve learned over the years that the fastest way to bring an office to a grinding halt is simply to write “BROKEN” on a piece of paper and tape it onto the photocopier. Staffers walk to the machine, see the sign, feel momentarily inconvenienced and then glow inwardly when they realize they can blamelessly return to their cubicle and play FreeCell and trawl the Internet for Russian dashcam car accident GIFs. Greetings. My name is Shannon Phelps. I’m a temp, but more than that, I’m the future of employment in the Western world. Sure, you may have a job right now, but one day you’ll be me, roving from gig to gig, with no medical, no dental, no anything else except the pleasure of not having to kiss ass or put up with imbeciles or care much about things like, say, life-sucking, boring meetings of the sort I sit in on at Taylor, Wagner & Kimura Filter Systems. TWK’s owners are systematically moving the company to China, and everyone knows it.


pages: 424 words: 115,035

How Will Capitalism End? by Wolfgang Streeck

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Airbnb, basic income, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Bretton Woods, business cycle, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, Clayton Christensen, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Brooks, David Graeber, debt deflation, deglobalization, deindustrialization, disruptive innovation, en.wikipedia.org, eurozone crisis, failed state, financial deregulation, financial innovation, first-past-the-post, fixed income, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, Google Glasses, haute cuisine, income inequality, information asymmetry, invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Kenneth Rogoff, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, late capitalism, liberal capitalism, market bubble, means of production, moral hazard, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, open borders, pension reform, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, post-industrial society, private sector deleveraging, profit maximization, profit motive, quantitative easing, reserve currency, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, savings glut, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, sovereign wealth fund, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, transaction costs, Uber for X, upwardly mobile, Vilfredo Pareto, winner-take-all economy, Wolfgang Streeck

The result is a secular weakening of social counter-movements, caused by a loss of class and social solidarity and accompanied by crippling political conflicts over ethnic diversity, even in traditionally liberal countries such as the Netherlands, Sweden or Norway. Figure 1.7: The broken social contract, U.S., 1947 to present Source: Thomas Kochan, ‘The American Jobs Crisis and the Implications for the Future of Employment Policy’, International Labor Relations Review, vol. 66, no. 2, 2013. The question of how and where capital accumulation must be restrained in order to protect the three fictitious commodities from total commodification has been contested throughout the history of capitalism. But the present worldwide disorder in all three border zones at the same time is something different: it results from a spectacularly successful onslaught of markets, expanding more rapidly than ever, on a wide range of institutions and actors that, whether inherited from the past or built up in long political struggles, had for a time kept capitalism’s advance to some extent socially embedded.


pages: 405 words: 117,219

In Our Own Image: Savior or Destroyer? The History and Future of Artificial Intelligence by George Zarkadakis

3D printing, Ada Lovelace, agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, animal electricity, anthropic principle, Asperger Syndrome, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, British Empire, business process, carbon-based life, cellular automata, Claude Shannon: information theory, combinatorial explosion, complexity theory, continuous integration, Conway's Game of Life, cosmological principle, dark matter, dematerialisation, double helix, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Snowden, epigenetics, Flash crash, Google Glasses, Gödel, Escher, Bach, income inequality, index card, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, Jacques de Vaucanson, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John von Neumann, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, Kickstarter, liberal capitalism, lifelogging, millennium bug, Moravec's paradox, natural language processing, Norbert Wiener, off grid, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, packet switching, pattern recognition, Paul Erdős, post-industrial society, prediction markets, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, speech recognition, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, strong AI, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, theory of mind, Turing complete, Turing machine, Turing test, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Vernor Vinge, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Y2K

., and Finkelstein L. (1989), ‘ANABEL: Intelligent Blood-Gas Analysis in the Intensive Care Unit’, in: International Journal of Clinical Monitoring and Computing, Vol. 6, pp. 167–71. 12Deep Blue beat Kasparov in the second six-game match, 2–1 with 3 draws. 13In 1997, Deep Blue ranked as the 259th most powerful supercomputer in the world. 14Silver, N. (2012), The Signal and the Noise, London: Penguin. 15Frey, C. B., and Osborne, M. A. (2013), ‘The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?’, in: Machines and Employment Workshop, Oxford: Oxford University Engineering Science Department and Oxford Martin Programme. 16Cowen, T. (2013), Average is Over: Powering American beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation. New York: Dutton. 17Brynjolfsson, E., and McAfee, A. (2014), The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a time of Brilliant Technologies, New York: W.W.


pages: 437 words: 113,173

Age of Discovery: Navigating the Risks and Rewards of Our New Renaissance by Ian Goldin, Chris Kutarna

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, AltaVista, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, bitcoin, Bonfire of the Vanities, clean water, collective bargaining, Colonization of Mars, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Dava Sobel, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, double helix, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, experimental economics, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, full employment, Galaxy Zoo, global pandemic, global supply chain, Hyperloop, immigration reform, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial cluster, industrial robot, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, Islamic Golden Age, Johannes Kepler, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, low cost airline, low cost carrier, low skilled workers, Lyft, Malacca Straits, mass immigration, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, New Urbanism, non-tariff barriers, Occupy movement, On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres, open economy, Panamax, Pearl River Delta, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, post-Panamax, profit motive, rent-seeking, reshoring, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart grid, Snapchat, special economic zone, spice trade, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Stuxnet, The Future of Employment, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trade route, transaction costs, transatlantic slave trade, uber lyft, undersea cable, uranium enrichment, We are the 99%, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, working poor, working-age population, zero day

Emerging Infectious Diseases 10(1): 117–120. 65. Doornbos, Harald and Jenan Moussa (2014, August 28). “Found: The Islamic State’s Terror Laptop of Doom.” Foreign Policy. Retrieved from www.foreignpolicy.com. 66. Levy, Frank and Richard Murnane (2004). The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, p. 20. 67. Frey, Carl and Michael Osborne (2013). The Future of Employment. Oxford: Oxford Martin School. Retrieved from www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk; Schwab, Klaus (2016). The Fourth Industrial Revolution. Geneva: World Economic Forum. 68. Berger, Thor and Carl Frey (2014). Industrial Renewal in the 21st Century: Evidence from US Cities. Oxford: Oxford Martin School. Retrieved from www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk. 69. Gunn, Steven (2010). “War and the Emergence of the State: Western Europe 1350–1600.”


Innovation and Its Enemies by Calestous Juma

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, autonomous vehicles, big-box store, business cycle, Cass Sunstein, clean water, collective bargaining, colonial rule, computer age, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deskilling, disruptive innovation, energy transition, Erik Brynjolfsson, financial innovation, global value chain, Honoré de Balzac, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of movable type, invention of the printing press, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, loss aversion, Marc Andreessen, means of production, Menlo Park, mobile money, New Urbanism, Nicholas Carr, pensions crisis, phenotype, Ray Kurzweil, refrigerator car, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, smart grid, smart meter, stem cell, Steve Jobs, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Travis Kalanick

Geels, Technological Transitions and System Innovations: A Co-evolutionary and Socio-technical Analysis (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2005). 2. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: Norton, 2014), 257. 3. Hasan Bakhshi, Carl Benedikt Frey, and Michael Osborne, Creativity vs. Robots: The Creative Economy and the Future of Employment (London: Nesta, 2015), 6. 4. Martin Ford, The Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future (New York: Basic Books, 2015), 248; James Bessen, Learning by Doing: The Real Connection between Innovation, Wages, and Wealth (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2015). 5. David A. Mindell, Our Robots, Ourselves: Robotics and the Myth of Autonomy (New York: Penguin, 2015); and Murray Shanahan, The Technological Singularity (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2015). 6.


pages: 550 words: 124,073

Democracy and Prosperity: Reinventing Capitalism Through a Turbulent Century by Torben Iversen, David Soskice

Andrei Shleifer, assortative mating, augmented reality, barriers to entry, Bretton Woods, business cycle, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, central bank independence, centre right, cleantech, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, colonial rule, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, deindustrialization, deskilling, Donald Trump, first-past-the-post, full employment, Gini coefficient, hiring and firing, implied volatility, income inequality, industrial cluster, inflation targeting, invisible hand, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, liberal capitalism, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, means of production, mittelstand, Network effects, New Economic Geography, new economy, New Urbanism, non-tariff barriers, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, open borders, open economy, passive investing, precariat, race to the bottom, rent-seeking, RFID, road to serfdom, Robert Bork, Robert Gordon, Silicon Valley, smart cities, speech recognition, The Future of Employment, The Great Moderation, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, too big to fail, trade liberalization, union organizing, urban decay, Washington Consensus, winner-take-all economy, working-age population, World Values Survey, young professional, zero-sum game

The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 485 (1): 51–63. Freeman, Richard B. 1980. “Unionization and the Dispersion of Wages.” Industrial and Labor Relations Review 34 (1): 3–24. ———. 1988. “Labor Market Institutions and Economic Performance.” Economic Policy 6: 62–80. Freitag, Markus. 1999. “Politik und Währung. Ein internationaler Vergleich.” PhD dissertation, University of Bern. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Obsborne. 2017. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114: 254–80. Friedman, T. L. 2005. The World is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century. New York: Picador. Galenson, Walter. 1952. The Danish System of Industrial Relations: A Study in Industrial Peace. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Gamoran, Adam. 2010. “Tracking and Inequality: New Directions for Research and Practice.”


pages: 385 words: 123,168

Bullshit Jobs: A Theory by David Graeber

1960s counterculture, active measures, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Bretton Woods, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, David Graeber, Donald Trump, equal pay for equal work, full employment, global supply chain, High speed trading, hiring and firing, informal economy, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, knowledge worker, moral panic, post-work, precariat, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, single-payer health, software as a service, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, Travis Kalanick, universal basic income, unpaid internship, wage slave, wages for housework, women in the workforce, working poor, Works Progress Administration, young professional, éminence grise

“The Subject and Power.” Critical Inquiry 8, no. 4 (1982): 777–95. ________. The Final Foucault. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1988. Frank, Thomas. Listen Liberal, Or What Ever Happened to the Party of the People? New York: Henry Holt, 2016. Frayne, David. The Refusal of Work: The Theory and Practice of Resistance to Work. London: Zed Books, 2015. Frey, Carl B., and Michael A. Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (2017): 254–80. Fromm, Erich. The Anatomy of Human Destructiveness. New York: Henry Holt, 1973. Galbraith, John Kenneth. American Capitalism: The Concept of Countervailing Power. Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1963. ________. The New Industrial State. Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1967. ________.


pages: 410 words: 119,823

Radical Technologies: The Design of Everyday Life by Adam Greenfield

3D printing, Airbnb, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, bank run, barriers to entry, basic income, bitcoin, blockchain, business intelligence, business process, call centre, cellular automata, centralized clearinghouse, centre right, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, cloud computing, collective bargaining, combinatorial explosion, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, Conway's Game of Life, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, dematerialisation, digital map, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, drone strike, Elon Musk, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, fiat currency, global supply chain, global village, Google Glasses, IBM and the Holocaust, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Conway, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, late capitalism, license plate recognition, lifelogging, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, megacity, megastructure, minimum viable product, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, natural language processing, Network effects, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, Pearl River Delta, performance metric, Peter Eisenman, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, post scarcity, post-work, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, RFID, rolodex, Satoshi Nakamoto, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, social intelligence, sorting algorithm, special economic zone, speech recognition, stakhanovite, statistical model, stem cell, technoutopianism, Tesla Model S, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, transaction costs, Uber for X, undersea cable, universal basic income, urban planning, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce

v=quWFjS3Ci7A. 21.Pew Research Center, “Digital Life in 2025: AI, Robotics and the Future of Jobs,” August 6, 2014, pewinternet.org. 22.In fairness, while nobody invokes the Bui map directly, several of Pew’s respondents did point out that truck driver is the number-one occupation for men in the United States, and that alongside taxi drivers, current holders of the job would be among the first to be entirely displaced by automation. The Gartner research firm takes a still harder line, predicting that one in three workers will be displaced by robotics or artificial intelligence by 2025. See Patrick Thibodeau, “One in three jobs will be taken by software or robots by 2025,” ComputerWorld, October 6, 2014. 23.Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin Program on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk. 24.Carl Benedikt Frey et al., “Technology At Work v2.0: The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be,” Citi Global Perspective and Solutions, January 2016, oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk. 25.World Economic Forum, “The Future of Jobs Employment, Skills and Workforce Strategy for the Fourth Industrial Revolution,” January 18, 2016, www3.weforum.org/docs/Media/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_embargoed.pdf; Larry Elliott, “Robots threaten 15m UK jobs, Says Bank of England’s Chief Economist,” Guardian, November 12, 2015. 26.Jana Kasperkevic, “McDonald’s CEO: Robots Won’t Replace Workers Despite Tech Opportunities,” Guardian, May 26, 2016. 27.Sam Machkovech, “McDonald’s ex-CEO: $15/hr Minimum Wage Will Unleash the Robot Rebellion,” Ars Technica, May 25, 2016. 28.Spencer Soper, “Inside Amazon’s Warehouse,” Lehigh Valley Morning Call, September 18, 2011.


pages: 462 words: 129,022

People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent by Joseph E. Stiglitz

"Robert Solow", affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, barriers to entry, basic income, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, central bank independence, clean water, collective bargaining, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, deglobalization, deindustrialization, disintermediation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial intermediation, Firefox, Fractional reserve banking, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, George Akerlof, gig economy, global supply chain, greed is good, income inequality, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jean Tirole, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, late fees, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, new economy, New Urbanism, obamacare, patent troll, Paul Samuelson, pension reform, Peter Thiel, postindustrial economy, price discrimination, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, Robert Bork, Robert Gordon, Robert Mercer, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, secular stagnation, self-driving car, shareholder value, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Great Moderation, the market place, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade liberalization, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, two-sided market, universal basic income, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, War on Poverty, working-age population

A survey of AI experts predicts that by 2024, AI will be better than humans at translating languages, and by 2027 at driving a truck. These experts believe there is a 50 percent chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years. See Katja Grace, John Salvatier, Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang, and Owain Evans, Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research (2018), arXiv:1705.08807. 5.See Carl B. Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (2017): 254–80. Also see the book by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Race against the Machine (Lexington: Digital Frontier Press, 2011). 6.For one version of this story, see “Difference Engine: Luddite Legacy,” The Economist, Nov. 4, 2011. 7.See Stiglitz, The Great Divide, 393–403, based on earlier research by Domenico Delli Gatti, Mauro Gallegati, Bruce Greenwald, Alberto Russo, and me, “Mobility Constraints, Productivity Trends, and Extended Crises,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 83, no. 3 (2012): 375–93; and “Sectoral Imbalances and Long Run Crises,” in The Global Macro Economy and Finance, eds.


pages: 688 words: 147,571

Robot Rules: Regulating Artificial Intelligence by Jacob Turner

Ada Lovelace, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AI winter, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, autonomous vehicles, Basel III, bitcoin, blockchain, brain emulation, Clapham omnibus, cognitive dissonance, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, distributed ledger, don't be evil, Donald Trump, easy for humans, difficult for computers, effective altruism, Elon Musk, financial exclusion, financial innovation, friendly fire, future of work, hive mind, Internet of things, iterative process, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Loebner Prize, medical malpractice, Nate Silver, natural language processing, nudge unit, obamacare, off grid, pattern recognition, Peace of Westphalia, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak, strong AI, technological singularity, Tesla Model S, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Future of Employment, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Turing test, Vernor Vinge

Isaac Asimov, The Rest of Robots (New York: Doubleday, 1964), 43. 4As to data, see “Data Management and Use: Governance in the 21st Century a Joint Report by the British Academy and the Royal Society”, British Academy and the Royal Society, June 2017, https://​royalsociety.​org/​~/​media/​policy/​projects/​data-governance/​data-management-governance.​pdf, accessed 1 June 2018. As to unemployment, see Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology Working Paper, September 2013, http://​www.​oxfordmartin.​ox.​ac.​uk/​downloads/​academic/​future-of-employment.​pdf, accessed 1 June 2018. See also Daniel Susskind and Richard Susskind, The Future of the Professions : How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015). 5See Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014). 6See Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (New York: Viking Press, 2005). 7Several nineteenth-century thinkers including Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace arguably predicted the advent of AI and even prepared designs for machines capable of carrying out intelligent tasks.


India's Long Road by Vijay Joshi

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, barriers to entry, Basel III, basic income, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, business climate, capital controls, central bank independence, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, colonial rule, congestion charging, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Doha Development Round, eurozone crisis, facts on the ground, failed state, financial intermediation, financial repression, first-past-the-post, floating exchange rates, full employment, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global value chain, hiring and firing, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, Induced demand, inflation targeting, invisible hand, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, Martin Wolf, means of production, microcredit, moral hazard, obamacare, Pareto efficiency, price mechanism, price stability, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, rent-seeking, reserve currency, rising living standards, school choice, school vouchers, secular stagnation, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, special drawing rights, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, universal basic income, urban sprawl, working-age population

[ 64 ] The Growth Challenge 65 CHAPTER 5 Growth and the Employment Problem D espite three decades of rapid growth, the employment situation in India remains alarming. A small minority of workers, mostly in the organized modern sector, have ‘good’ jobs in which wages and labour productivity are relatively high, and the work environment is fairly decent. The vast majority of workers are crammed into the ‘unorganized sector’ doing low-​productivity work, with earnings that are paltry, and working conditions that are dire.1 The future of employment looks even worse, because the labour force is expected to grow rapidly. Around a million new job-​seekers will enter the labour force every month for the next three decades. As things stand, India is well on the way to perpetuating a two-​tier economy. This chapter argues that a more labour-​demanding strategy of development could deliver faster growth that is also more inclusive. While a range of complementary measures will be required to encourage greater labour-​ use, one essential reform is likely to prove politically difficult.


pages: 470 words: 148,730

Good Economics for Hard Times: Better Answers to Our Biggest Problems by Abhijit V. Banerjee, Esther Duflo

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, basic income, Bernie Sanders, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, charter city, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, energy transition, Erik Brynjolfsson, experimental economics, experimental subject, facts on the ground, fear of failure, financial innovation, George Akerlof, high net worth, immigration reform, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, industrial cluster, industrial robot, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, Jean Tirole, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, land reform, loss aversion, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, non-tariff barriers, obamacare, offshore financial centre, open economy, Paul Samuelson, place-making, price stability, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, shareholder value, short selling, Silicon Valley, smart meter, social graph, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, technology bubble, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, universal basic income, urban sprawl, very high income, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y2K

ONE FOR THE LUDDITES An increasing number of economists (and of those who comment on economics) worry that new technologies, such as AI, robots, and automation more generally, will destroy more jobs than they create, making many workers obsolete and causing the share of GDP that goes to pay wages to dwindle. In fact, these days growth optimists and labor pessimists are often the same people; they both imagine future growth will be primarily driven by the replacement of human workers by robots. In their book The Second Machine Age, our MIT colleagues Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee offer a bleak view of the impact of digitization on the future of employment in the United States.3 Digitization, they suspect, will make workers with “ordinary” skills increasingly redundant. As tasks from car painting to spreadsheet manipulation are done by computers or robots, highly educated workers who are adaptable and can program and install the robots will become more and more valuable, but other workers who can be replaced will find themselves without jobs unless they accept extremely low salaries.


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Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America: A Recent History by Kurt Andersen

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, airline deregulation, airport security, always be closing, American ideology, American Legislative Exchange Council, anti-communist, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, blue-collar work, Bonfire of the Vanities, bonus culture, Burning Man, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, centre right, computer age, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate raider, COVID-19, Covid-19, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, cryptocurrency, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, ending welfare as we know it, Erik Brynjolfsson, feminist movement, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, game design, George Gilder, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, High speed trading, hive mind, income inequality, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jitney, Joan Didion, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, mass immigration, mass incarceration, Menlo Park, Naomi Klein, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, obamacare, Peter Thiel, Picturephone, plutocrats, Plutocrats, post-industrial society, Powell Memorandum, pre–internet, Ralph Nader, Right to Buy, road to serfdom, Robert Bork, Robert Gordon, Robert Mercer, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Seaside, Florida, Second Machine Age, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, strikebreaker, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban planning, urban renewal, very high income, wage slave, Wall-E, War on Poverty, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional, éminence grise

What to Do When Machines Do Everything: How to Get Ahead in a World of AI, Algorithms, Bots, and Big Data. Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley, 2017. Frank, Thomas. Listen, Liberal: What Ever Happened to the Party of the People? New York: Metropolitan, 2016. Fraser, Steve. The Limousine Liberal: How an Incendiary Image United the Right and Fractured America. New York: Basic Books, 2016. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (2017): 254–80. Friedan, Betty. The Feminine Mystique. New York: W. W. Norton, 2013. Friedman, Milton, and Rose D. Friedman. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962. Frydman, Carola, and Raven E. Saks. “Executive Compensation: A New View from a Long-Term Perspective, 1936–2005.”


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Future Crimes: Everything Is Connected, Everyone Is Vulnerable and What We Can Do About It by Marc Goodman

23andMe, 3D printing, active measures, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, airport security, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bill Joy: nanobots, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, borderless world, Brian Krebs, business process, butterfly effect, call centre, Charles Lindbergh, Chelsea Manning, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, computer vision, connected car, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, data acquisition, data is the new oil, Dean Kamen, disintermediation, don't be evil, double helix, Downton Abbey, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Filter Bubble, Firefox, Flash crash, future of work, game design, global pandemic, Google Chrome, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Gordon Gekko, high net worth, High speed trading, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, hypertext link, illegal immigration, impulse control, industrial robot, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Harrison: Longitude, John Markoff, Joi Ito, Jony Ive, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kuwabatake Sanjuro: assassination market, Law of Accelerating Returns, Lean Startup, license plate recognition, lifelogging, litecoin, low earth orbit, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, Metcalfe’s law, MITM: man-in-the-middle, mobile money, more computing power than Apollo, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, national security letter, natural language processing, obamacare, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, off grid, offshore financial centre, optical character recognition, Parag Khanna, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, personalized medicine, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, pre–internet, RAND corporation, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, refrigerator car, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rodney Brooks, Ross Ulbricht, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, security theater, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, strong AI, Stuxnet, supply-chain management, technological singularity, telepresence, telepresence robot, Tesla Model S, The Future of Employment, The Wisdom of Crowds, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, uranium enrichment, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Wave and Pay, We are Anonymous. We are Legion, web application, Westphalian system, WikiLeaks, Y Combinator, zero day

,” IEEE Spectrum, May 29, 2014. 27 “it can read”: Brandon Keim, “I, Nanny,” Wired, Dec. 18, 2008. 28 To help alleviate: Mai Iida, “Robot Niche Expands in Senior Care,” Japan Times, June 19, 2013. 29 Thousands of Paro units: Anne Tergesen and Miho Inada, “It’s Not a Stuffed Animal, It’s a $6,000 Medical Device,” Wall Street Journal, June 21, 2010. 30 One of the fastest-growing: “Your Alter Ego on Wheels,” Economist, March 9, 2013. 31 Robots such as the MantaroBot: Serene Fang, “Robot Care for Aging Parents,” Al Jazeera America, Feb. 27, 2014. 32 With the push of a button: Ryan Jaslow, “RP-VITA Robot on Wheels Lets Docs Treat Patients Remotely,” CBS News, Nov. 19, 2013. 33 Already Starwood hotels: “Robots Are the New Butlers at Starwood Hotels,” CNBC, Aug. 12, 2014. 34 A 2013 study: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment,” Oxford Martin, Sept. 17, 2013, http://​www.​oxfordmartin.​ox.​ac.​uk/. 35 Those working in the transportation field: For an excellent discussion on the future of robots, automation, and work, see Kevin Kelly, “Better Than Human: Why Robots Will—and Must—Take Our Jobs,” Wired, Dec. 24, 2012; Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W.


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The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality From the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century by Walter Scheidel

agricultural Revolution, assortative mating, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, collective bargaining, colonial rule, Columbian Exchange, conceptual framework, corporate governance, cosmological principle, crony capitalism, dark matter, declining real wages, demographic transition, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, fixed income, Francisco Pizarro, full employment, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, hiring and firing, income inequality, John Markoff, knowledge worker, land reform, land tenure, low skilled workers, means of production, mega-rich, Network effects, nuclear winter, offshore financial centre, plutocrats, Plutocrats, race to the bottom, recommendation engine, rent control, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, Simon Kuznets, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, transatlantic slave trade, universal basic income, very high income, working-age population, zero-sum game

Plutocrats: the rise of the new global super-rich and the fall of everyone else. New York: Penguin. Freeman, Richard B. 2009. “Globalization and inequality.” In Salverda, Nolan, and Smeeding, eds. 2009: 575–598. Freu, Christel. 2015. “Labour status and economic stratification in the Roman world: the hierarchy of wages in Egypt.” Journal of Roman Archaeology 28: 161–177. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Osborne, Michael A. 2013. “The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerization?” Oxford Martin School Working Paper. Frier, Bruce W. 2001. “More is worse: some observations on the population of the Roman empire.” In Scheidel, Walter, ed., Debating Roman demography. Leiden, Netherlands: Brill, 139–159. Frydman, Carola, and Molloy, Raven. 2012. “Pay cuts for the boss: executive compensation in the 1940s.” Journal of Economic History 72: 225–251.