The Future of Employment

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The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, Anthropocene, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, circular economy, clean water, collaborative consumption, commoditize, conceptual framework, continuous integration, CRISPR, cross-border payments, crowdsourcing, digital divide, digital twin, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, driverless car, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, global value chain, Google Glasses, hype cycle, income inequality, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of the steam engine, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, life extension, Lyft, Marc Benioff, mass immigration, megacity, meta-analysis, more computing power than Apollo, mutually assured destruction, Narrative Science, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, nuclear taboo, OpenAI, personalized medicine, precariat, precision agriculture, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, reshoring, RFID, rising living standards, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, social contagion, software as a service, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, supercomputer in your pocket, synthetic biology, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, The Spirit Level, total factor productivity, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Wayback Machine, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y Combinator, Zipcar

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/abundance-without-living-standards-growth-by-j--bradford-delong-2015-02 22 John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren” in Essays in Persuasion, Harcourt Brace, 1931. 23 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, University of Oxford, 17 September 2013. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf 24 Shelley Podolny, “If an Algorithm Wrote This, How Would You Even Know?”, The New York Times, 7 March 2015 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/opinion/sunday/if-an-algorithm-wrote-this-how-would-you-even-know.html?

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, Sisense, 29 July 2015. http://www.sisense.com/blog/much-data-will-3-years/ 90 Moore’s Law generally states that processor speeds, or the overall number of transistors in a central processing unit, will double every two years. 91 Kevin Mayer, Keith Ellis and Ken Taylor, “Cattle Health Monitoring Using Wireless Sensor Networks”, Proceedings of the Communication and Computer Networks Conference, Cambridge, MA, USA, 2004. http://www.academia.edu/781755/Cattle_health_monitoring_using_wireless_sensor_networks 92 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 17 September 2013. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf 93 Will Knight, “This Robot Could Transform Manufacturing,” MIT Technology Review, 18 September 2012. http://www.technologyreview.com/news/429248/this-robotcould-transform-manufacturing/ 94 See http://www.stratasys.com/. 95 Dan Worth, “Business use of 3D printing is years ahead of consumer uptake”, V3.co.uk, 19 August 2014.

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Their model predicted that up to 47% of US jobs in 2010 were highly likely to become computerized in the next 10-20 years (Figure V). Figure V: Distribution of US Occupational Employment* over the Probability of Computerization * Distribution based on 2010 job mix. Source: Frey, C.B. and M.A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, 17 September 2013 Positive impacts – Cost reductions – Efficiency gains – Unlocking innovation, opportunities for small business, start-ups (smaller barriers to entry, “software as a service” for everything) Negative impacts – Job losses – Accountability and liability – Change to legal, financial disclosure, risk – Job automation (refer to the Oxford Martin study) The shift in action Advances in automation were reported on by FORTUNE: “IBM’s Watson, well known for its stellar performance in the TV game show Jeopardy!

The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation by Carl Benedikt Frey

3D printing, AlphaGo, Alvin Toffler, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, business cycle, business process, call centre, Cambridge Analytica, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Charles Babbage, Clayton Christensen, collective bargaining, computer age, computer vision, Corn Laws, Cornelius Vanderbilt, creative destruction, data science, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deep learning, DeepMind, deindustrialization, demographic transition, desegregation, deskilling, Donald Trump, driverless car, easy for humans, difficult for computers, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, factory automation, Fairchild Semiconductor, falling living standards, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Ford Model T, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, full employment, future of work, game design, general purpose technology, Gini coefficient, Great Leap Forward, Hans Moravec, high-speed rail, Hyperloop, income inequality, income per capita, independent contractor, industrial cluster, industrial robot, intangible asset, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, invention of agriculture, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invention of the wheel, Isaac Newton, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jeremy Corbyn, job automation, job satisfaction, job-hopping, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Kiva Systems, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, labour mobility, Lewis Mumford, Loebner Prize, low skilled workers, machine translation, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, manufacturing employment, mass immigration, means of production, Menlo Park, minimum wage unemployment, natural language processing, new economy, New Urbanism, Nick Bostrom, Norbert Wiener, nowcasting, oil shock, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, OpenAI, opioid epidemic / opioid crisis, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, pink-collar, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, Renaissance Technologies, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Robert Solow, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, safety bicycle, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, seminal paper, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, social intelligence, sparse data, speech recognition, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, tacit knowledge, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, trade route, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Turing test, union organizing, universal basic income, warehouse automation, washing machines reduced drudgery, wealth creators, women in the workforce, working poor, zero-sum game

Osborne, 2017, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (C): 254–80. 22. B. Mathibela, M. A. Osborne, I. Posner, and P. Newman, 2012, “Can Priors Be Trusted? Learning to Anticipate Roadworks,” in IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 927–32. 23. B. Mathibela, P. Newman, and I. Posner, 2015, “Reading the Road: Road Marking Classification and Interpretation,” IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems 16 (4): 2080. 24. See C. B. Frey and Osborne, 2017, “The Future of Employment.” 25. Rio Tinto, 2017, “Rio Tinto to Expand Autonomous Fleet as Part of $5 Billion Productivity Drive,” December 18, http://www.riotinto.com/media/media-releases-237_23802.aspx. 26.

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Malthus, [1798] 2013, An Essay on the Principle of Population, Digireads. com, Kindle, 179. 49. C. B. Frey and Osborne, 2017, “The Future of Employment,” 262. 50. The O*NET database contains hundreds of standardized and occupation-specific descriptors for occupations covering the U.S. economy. For a list of occupations involving “originality,” see O*NET OnLine, 2018, “Find Occupations: Abilities—Originality,” https://www.onetonline.org/find/descriptor/result/1.A.1.b.2. 51. C. B. Frey and Osborne, 2017, “The Future of Employment,” 262. 52. These descriptions stem from large-scale surveys of the American workforce, in which workers are asked how often they engage in various tasks.

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Her voice was not so much raised as in ordinary talking, and its expressiveness was perfect.”45 The Next Wave More and more jobs lend themselves to automation. But anecdotes alone cannot tell us much about the extent to which jobs will be replaced in the future, or the types of job that will be affected. So in a 2013 paper titled “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” my Oxford University colleague Michael Osborne and I set out to identify the near-term engineering bottlenecks to automation as a way of estimating the exposure of current jobs to recent advances in AI. As noted above, until recently, computers had a comparative advantage in tasks involving routine rule-based activities, while humans did better at everything else.

The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts by Richard Susskind, Daniel Susskind

23andMe, 3D printing, Abraham Maslow, additive manufacturing, AI winter, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Robotics, Amazon Web Services, Andrew Keen, Atul Gawande, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, Bill Joy: nanobots, Blue Ocean Strategy, business process, business process outsourcing, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, Clapham omnibus, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer age, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, data science, death of newspapers, disintermediation, Douglas Hofstadter, driverless car, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Evgeny Morozov, Filter Bubble, full employment, future of work, Garrett Hardin, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Hacker Ethic, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, James Hargreaves, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, Large Hadron Collider, lifelogging, lump of labour, machine translation, Marshall McLuhan, Metcalfe’s law, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Network effects, Nick Bostrom, optical character recognition, Paul Samuelson, personalized medicine, planned obsolescence, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, semantic web, Shoshana Zuboff, Skype, social web, speech recognition, spinning jenny, strong AI, supply-chain management, Susan Wojcicki, tacit knowledge, TED Talk, telepresence, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, Turing test, Two Sigma, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, world market for maybe five computers, Yochai Benkler, young professional

See <http://www.ibras.dk/montypython/episode10.htm> (accessed 8 March 2015). 253 ‘2012 Annual Report to Congress—Volume 1’, Taxpayer Advocate Service at the IRS, 9 January 2013 <http://www.taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/2012-Annual-Report/FY-2012-Annual-Report-To-Congress-Full-Report.html> (accessed 8 March 2015). 254 <https://turbotax.intuit.com/>, <http://www.hrblock.com>, <http://www.taxact.com>. 255 These were 47,946,000 self-prepared e-filing receipts, 125,821,000 total e-filing receipts, and 149,684,000 total individual income tax returns (online and paper). ‘2014 Filing Season Statistics’, IRS, 26 December 2014 <http://www.irs.gov/uac/Dec-26-2014> (accessed 27 March 2015). 256 <https://ttlc.intuit.com/>, <http://community.hrblock.com/>. 257 <http://quickbooks.intuit.com>, <https://www.xero.com/>, <http://www.kashflow.com>. 258 See HM Revenue & Customs, ‘Making Tax Easier’, March 2015, <https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/413975/making-tax-easier.pdf> (accessed 14 March 2015). 259 ‘Record to report cycle—tax compliance and reporting’, Deloitte, 2014, <https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Tax/dttl-tax-tmc-technology-landscape-2014.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 260 ‘European VAT refund guide 2014’, Deloitte Global Tax Center (Europe), 2014 <http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Tax/dttl-tax-vat-refund-guide-gtce-2014.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 261 ‘Electronic Arm Twisting’, Economist, 17 May 2014. 262 Elisabetta Povoledo, ‘Italians Have a New Tool to Unearth Tax Cheats’, New York Times, 27 Jan. 2013 <http://www.nytimes.com> (accessed 8 March 2015). 263 Reed Albergotte, ‘IRS, States Call on IBM, LexisNexis, SAS to Fight Fraud’, Wall Street Journal, 22 July 2013 <http://www.wsj.com> (accessed 8 March 2015). 264 Abbi Hobbs, ‘Big Data, Crime and Security’, Houses of Parliament Postnote no. 470, July 2014 <http://www.parliament.uk> (accessed 8 March 2015). 265 Lucy Warwick-Ching and Vanessa Houlder, ‘Ten Ways HMRC Checks if You’re Cheating’, Financial Times, 16 Nov. 2012 <http://www.ft.com> (accessed 8 March 2015). 266 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation’, 17 Sept. 2013 <http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf> (accessed 23 March 2015). 267 ‘2012 Annual Report to Congress—Volume 1’, Taxpayer Advocate Service at the IRS, 9 January 2013 <http://www.taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/2012-Annual-Report/FY-2012-Annual-Report-To-Congress-Full-Report.html> (accessed 8 March 2015). 268 See Richard Susskind, Expert Systems in Law (1987), 208–13. 269 ‘Key Facts and Trends in the Accountancy Profession’, Financial Reporting Council, June 2014 <https://www.frc.org.uk/Our-Work/Publications/FRC-Board/Key-Facts-and-Trends-in-the-Accountancy-Profession.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 270 ‘Our Audit Methodology’, KPMG, <https://www.kpmg.com/eg/en/services/audit/pages/ourauditmethodology.aspx> (accessed 8 March 2015), ‘Transparency Report 2014’, EY Global, <http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-Global-Transparency-Report-2014/%20$FILE/EY-Global-Transparency-Report-2014.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 271 ‘Transparency Report: Building trust through assurance’, PwC UK, 30 June 2014 <http://www.pwc.co.uk/en_UK/uk/transparencyreport/assets/pdf/transparency-report-fy14.pdf> (accessed 8 March 2015). 272 John C.

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An updated version of their thinking is found in ‘Dancing with Robots’ (2013), at <http://content.thirdway.org/publications/714/Dancing-With-Robots.pdf> (accessed 25 March 2015). 36 What we say here is consistent with the observation by Frey and Osborne, in a much-discussed paper, that ‘Computer capital can now equally substitute for a wide range of tasks commonly defined as non-routine.’ See Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation’, 17 Sept. 2013 <http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf> (accessed 23 March 2015). 37 Garrett Hardin, ‘The Tragedy of the Commons’, Science, 162: 3859 (1968), 1243–8. 38 Jeremy Rifkin, The Zero Marginal Cost Society (2014). 39 Yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks (2006), 153. 40 Benkler, The Wealth of Networks, 221–2. 41 Carol Rose, ‘The Comedy of the Commons: Commerce, Custom, and Inherently Public Property’, University of Chicago Law Review, 53: 3 (1986), 711–81.

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Frame, Alex, Salmond: Southern Jurist (Wellington: Victoria University Press, 1995). Freidson, Eliot, Professional Powers, paperback edn. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988). Freidson, Eliot, Professionalism, 3rd edn. (Oxford: Polity Press, 2001). Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation’, 17 Sept. 2013 <http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf> (accessed 23 March 2015). Friedman, Thomas, The World is Flat, updated and expanded edn. (London: Penguin, 2006). Frizell, Sam, ‘Meet the Robots Shipping Your Amazon Orders’, Time, 1 Dec. 2014 <http://time.com/3605924/amazon-robots/> (accessed 23 March 2015).

Thinking Machines: The Inside Story of Artificial Intelligence and Our Race to Build the Future by Luke Dormehl

"World Economic Forum" Davos, Ada Lovelace, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Albert Einstein, Alexey Pajitnov wrote Tetris, algorithmic management, algorithmic trading, AlphaGo, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Apple II, artificial general intelligence, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, Bletchley Park, book scanning, borderless world, call centre, cellular automata, Charles Babbage, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, deep learning, DeepMind, driverless car, drone strike, Elon Musk, Flash crash, Ford Model T, friendly AI, game design, Geoffrey Hinton, global village, Google X / Alphabet X, Hans Moravec, hive mind, industrial robot, information retrieval, Internet of things, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, Loebner Prize, machine translation, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, Mustafa Suleyman, natural language processing, Nick Bostrom, Norbert Wiener, out of africa, PageRank, paperclip maximiser, pattern recognition, radical life extension, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, remote working, RFID, scientific management, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, social intelligence, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, superintelligent machines, tech billionaire, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Future of Employment, Tim Cook: Apple, Tony Fadell, too big to fail, traumatic brain injury, Turing machine, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!

, Dialectica, Vol. 4, no. 3, 1950. 8 ‘Google’s Self-Driving Car in Five-Car Crash’, Mountain View Voice, 8 August 2011. 9 Black, Thomas, ‘Google Sees Automated Flight Going “All the Way” to airlines’, Bloomberg, 5 May 2015: bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015–05-05/google-sees-automated-flight-going-all-the-way-to-airliners 10 Frey, Carl and Osborne, Michael, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’, Oxford Martin School, 17 September 2013: fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/The-Future-of-Employment-How-Susceptible-Are-Jobs-to-Computerization.pdf 11 Wile, Rob, ‘A Venture Capital Firm Just Named an Algorithm to Its Board Of Directors – Here’s What It Actually Does’, Business Insider, 13 May 2015: businessinsider.com/vital-named-to-board-2014–5?

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En route, we will meet computers pretending to trap paedophiles, dancing robot vacuum cleaners, chess-playing algorithms, and uploaded consciousnesses designed to speak to you from beyond the grave. This is the story of how we imagine our future, and how in a world obsessed with technology, we carve out a role for humanity in the face of accelerating computer intelligence. It’s about the nature of creativity, the future of employment, and what happens when all knowledge is data and can be stored electronically. It’s about what we’re trying to do when we make machines smarter than we are, how humans still have the edge (for now), and the question of whether you and I aren’t thinking machines of a sort as well. The pioneering British mathematician and computer scientist Alan Turing predicted in 1950 that by the end of the twentieth century, ‘the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted’.

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‘Can a robot turn a canvas into a beautiful masterpiece?’ The robot with whom he is conversing deflects the question by asking, ‘Can you?’ At first glance, asking if a machine can be creative isn’t a matter of particular importance. Compared to some of the other issues addressed in this book – the future of employment or artificially intelligent medicine – it’s easy to think of it as downright minor. It’s the kind of question that two software engineers at Google might casually chat about over beers on a Friday afternoon. In fact, artificial creativity is one of the most important issues faced in AI.

Mending the Net: Toward Universal Basic Incomes by Chris Oestereich

Abraham Maslow, basic income, en.wikipedia.org, future of work, Future Shock, Overton Window, profit motive, rent-seeking, The Future of Employment, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, universal basic income

[8] Pizzigati, S, 2012, “America’s Rich: Pulling Away,” http://inequality.org/americas-rich-pulling/. [9] Bremmer, I, 2016, “These 5 Facts Explain the Unstable Global Middle Class,” http://time.com/4198164/these-5-facts-explain-the-unstable-global-middle-class/. [10] Benedikt Frey, C, and Osborne, M, 2013, “The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?,” http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. [11] Dickerson, M, 2016, “Is the American Dream dead?” https://theconversation.com/is-the-american-dream-dead-57095. [12] Davis, A, and Mishel, L, 2014, “CEO Pay Continues to Rise as Typical Workers Are Paid Less,” http://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-continues-to-rise/

Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future by Martin Ford

3D printing, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AI winter, algorithmic management, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, artificial general intelligence, assortative mating, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Bernie Madoff, Bill Joy: nanobots, bond market vigilante , business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon tax, Charles Babbage, Chris Urmson, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computer age, creative destruction, data science, debt deflation, deep learning, deskilling, digital divide, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, driverless car, Erik Brynjolfsson, factory automation, financial innovation, Flash crash, Ford Model T, Fractional reserve banking, Freestyle chess, full employment, general purpose technology, Geoffrey Hinton, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Gunnar Myrdal, High speed trading, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, informal economy, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kenneth Arrow, Khan Academy, Kiva Systems, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, large language model, liquidity trap, low interest rates, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, Lyft, machine readable, machine translation, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, McJob, moral hazard, Narrative Science, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, obamacare, optical character recognition, passive income, Paul Samuelson, performance metric, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, post scarcity, precision agriculture, price mechanism, public intellectual, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, rent-seeking, reshoring, RFID, Richard Feynman, Robert Solow, Rodney Brooks, Salesforce, Sam Peltzman, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley billionaire, Silicon Valley startup, single-payer health, software is eating the world, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, stealth mode startup, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, strong AI, Stuxnet, technological singularity, telepresence, telepresence robot, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Future of Employment, the long tail, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, Tragedy of the Commons, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, uber lyft, union organizing, Vernor Vinge, very high income, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce

On Canadian median wages and unionization, see Miles Corak, “The Simple Economics of the Declining Middle Class—and the Not So Simple Politics,” Economics for Public Policy Blog, August 7, 2013, http://milescorak.com/2013/08/07/the-simple-economics-of-the-declining-middle-class-and-the-not-so-simple-politics/, and “Unions on Decline in Private Sector,” CBC News Canada, September 2, 2012, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/unions-on-decline-in-private-sector-1.1150562. 59. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, p. 38, http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. 60. Paul Krugman, “Robots and Robber Barons,” New York Times, December 9, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/10/opinion/krugman-robots-and-robber-barons.html?

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Blinder, “Free Trade’s Great, but Offshoring Rattles Me,” Washington Post, May 6, 2007, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/04/AR2007050402555.html. 49. Blinder, “Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution?” 50. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, p. 38, http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. 51. Alan S. Blinder, “On the Measurability of Offshorability,” VOX, October 9, 2009, http://www.voxeu.org/article/twenty-five-percent-us-jobs-are-offshorable. 52.

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., based on Table 15, p. 39; see the row labeled “Joint & Survivor, Male 65 and Female 60, 100% Survivor Income-Life Annuity.” An alternate plan with a 3 percent annual increase starts at just $3,700 (or about $300 per month). 31. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, p. 38, http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/sites/futuretech.ox.ac.uk/files/The_Future_of_Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. 32. For China population figures, see Deirdre Wang Morris, “China’s Aging Population Threatens Its Manufacturing Might,” CNBC, October 24, 2012, http://www.cnbc.com/id/49498720 and “World Population Ageing 2013,” United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, p. 32, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/WorldPopulationAgeing2013.pdf. 33.

Free Money for All: A Basic Income Guarantee Solution for the Twenty-First Century by Mark Walker

3D printing, 8-hour work day, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, behavioural economics, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, commoditize, confounding variable, driverless car, financial independence, full employment, guns versus butter model, happiness index / gross national happiness, industrial robot, intangible asset, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, laissez-faire capitalism, late capitalism, longitudinal study, market clearing, means of production, military-industrial complex, new economy, obamacare, off grid, off-the-grid, plutocrats, precariat, printed gun, profit motive, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, RFID, Rodney Brooks, Rosa Parks, science of happiness, Silicon Valley, surplus humans, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, transaction costs, universal basic income, warehouse robotics, working poor

The most detailed and methodologically sound investigation of the issue I know of can be found in Frey and Osborne (2013). They identify 702 distinct occupations in the US work force and have found that “about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk” Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Retrieved September 7 (2013). http:// assets.careerspot.com.au/files/news/The_Future_of_Employment_ OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. Keith Wagstaff, “How Foxconn’s Million-Machine ‘Robot Kingdom’ Will Change the Face of Manufacturing,” Time, 2011, http://techland.time.com/2011/11/09/how-foxconns-million-machine-robotkingdom-will-change-the-face-of-manufacturing/.

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Frankfurt, Harry G. Freedom of the Will and the Concept of a Person. Clifton, NJ: Springer, 1988. Frey, Bruno S. Happiness: A Revolution in Economics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2008. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Retrieved September, 2013. http://assets.careerspot.com.au/files/news/The_Future_of_ Employment_OMS_Working_Paper_1.pdf. Friedman, Milton. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962. Friedman, Milton, and Rose Friedman. Free to Choose: A Personal Statement. Harcourt: Houghton Mifflin, 1990.

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Gregory Clark, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008). This passage is quoted in Brynjolfsson and McAfee, Race against the Machine. 28. There are still a few specialized uses for horses, such as use by police in parks and crowd control situations. 29. Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment.” 30. Karl Widerquist and Michael A. Lewis, “An Efficiency Argument for the Basic Income Guarantee,” International Journal of Environment, Workplace and Employment 2, 1 (2006): 21–43. 6 BIG Happiness 1. I am assuming a version of “welfarism.” I believe the argument can incorporate non-welfarist conceptions of “the good,” but ignore that here as an unnecessary complication.

Ghost Road: Beyond the Driverless Car by Anthony M. Townsend

A Pattern Language, active measures, AI winter, algorithmic trading, Alvin Toffler, Amazon Robotics, asset-backed security, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, big-box store, bike sharing, Blitzscaling, Boston Dynamics, business process, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, car-free, carbon footprint, carbon tax, circular economy, company town, computer vision, conceptual framework, congestion charging, congestion pricing, connected car, creative destruction, crew resource management, crowdsourcing, DARPA: Urban Challenge, data is the new oil, Dean Kamen, deep learning, deepfake, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, dematerialisation, deskilling, Didi Chuxing, drive until you qualify, driverless car, drop ship, Edward Glaeser, Elaine Herzberg, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, extreme commuting, financial engineering, financial innovation, Flash crash, food desert, Ford Model T, fulfillment center, Future Shock, General Motors Futurama, gig economy, Google bus, Greyball, haute couture, helicopter parent, independent contractor, inventory management, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Jevons paradox, jitney, job automation, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Kiva Systems, Lewis Mumford, loss aversion, Lyft, Masayoshi Son, megacity, microapartment, minimum viable product, mortgage debt, New Urbanism, Nick Bostrom, North Sea oil, Ocado, openstreetmap, pattern recognition, Peter Calthorpe, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, Ray Oldenburg, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Sidewalk Labs, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, SoftBank, software as a service, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, surveillance capitalism, technological singularity, TED Talk, Tesla Model S, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, The Great Good Place, too big to fail, traffic fines, transit-oriented development, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, urban planning, urban sprawl, US Airways Flight 1549, Vernor Vinge, vertical integration, Vision Fund, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics

., “The Skill Content,” 1283. 152predictions have also proved remarkably prescient: The Quarterly Journal of Economics article has been cited more than 4,300 times in the last 15 years, according to Google Scholar. 152“limited opportunities for substitution or complementarity”: Chris O’Brien, “Venture Capitalists Flock to Truck Technology Startups,” Trucks.com, July 31, 2017, https://www.trucks.com/2017/07/31/venture-capitalists-flock-truck-technology-startups/. 152an “informal” attempt to chart the territory: Autor et al., “The Skill Content,” 1282. 153jobs in the US economy were at risk of automation: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (January 2017): 254–80, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 154SAFE has been a strong advocate of AVs: James Osborne, “Among Retired Military Leaders, U.S. Thirst for Oil Poses Security Risk,” Houston Chronicle, July 8, 2017, https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/Among-retired-military-leaders-U-S-thirst-for-11272912.php. 154economists see professional drivers in the crosshairs of automation’s advance: Securing America’s Future Energy, America’s Workforce and the Self-Driving Future: Realizing Productivity Gains and Spurring Economic Growth, June 2018, 8, https://avworkforce.secureenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/SAFE_AV_Policy_Brief.pdf. 155benefits vastly outweighs projected wage losses: Securing America’s Future Energy, America’s Workforce, 12. 155factor of three or more: Securing America’s Future Energy, America’s Workforce, 9. 155plenty of time for policymakers to prepare: Securing America’s Future Energy, America’s Workforce, 8. 155three possible approaches for the US: Securing America’s Future Energy, America’s Workforce, 44. 156as the trucking workforce ages: David H.

…

., “The History of Artificial Intelligence,” University of Washington, December 2006, https://courses.cs.washington.edu/courses/csep590/06au/projects/his tory-ai.pdf. 235“a deep level of understanding”: Rodney Brooks, “Post: [For&AI] The Origins of Artificial Intelligence,” Robots, AI, and Other Stuff (blog), April 27, 2018, https://rodneybrooks.com/forai-the-origins-of-artificial-intelligence/. 235“Contemporary neural networks do well on challenges”: Gary Marcus, “Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal,” New York University, accessed January 22, 2019, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.00631.pdf. 236“If . . . driverless cars should also disappoint”: Marcus, “Deep Learning.” 236Frey tallied his predictions of the jobs: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” University of Oxford, September 17, 2013, 60, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 237“decisive strategic advantage”: Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence:Paths, Dangers, Strategies (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2014), 96. 237a serious and sober discussion about what: Bostrom, Superintelligence, 96. 238more than $25 million since 2015: Author’s estimate based on figures published by Future of Humanity Institute, “Timeline of the Future of Humanity Institute,” June 25, 2018, https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_ Future_of_Humanity_Institute. 238aspiring singleton’s inevitable ambitions: Bostrom, Superintelligence, 118.

Stakeholder Capitalism: A Global Economy That Works for Progress, People and Planet by Klaus Schwab, Peter Vanham

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", "World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, air traffic controllers' union, Anthropocene, Apple II, Asian financial crisis, Asperger Syndrome, basic income, Berlin Wall, Big Tech, biodiversity loss, bitcoin, Black Lives Matter, blockchain, blue-collar work, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business process, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, car-free, carbon footprint, carbon tax, centre right, clean tech, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, colonial rule, company town, contact tracing, contact tracing app, Cornelius Vanderbilt, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, COVID-19, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, currency peg, cyber-physical system, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Diane Coyle, digital divide, don't be evil, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, gender pay gap, general purpose technology, George Floyd, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global value chain, global village, Google bus, green new deal, Greta Thunberg, high net worth, hiring and firing, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, independent contractor, industrial robot, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, labor-force participation, lockdown, low interest rates, low skilled workers, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Marc Benioff, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, means of production, megacity, microplastics / micro fibres, Mikhail Gorbachev, mini-job, mittelstand, move fast and break things, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, new economy, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, precariat, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, reserve currency, reshoring, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Salesforce, San Francisco homelessness, School Strike for Climate, self-driving car, seminal paper, shareholder value, Shenzhen special economic zone , Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, social distancing, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, synthetic biology, TaskRabbit, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the scientific method, TikTok, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, transfer pricing, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, War on Poverty, We are the 99%, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population, Yom Kippur War, young professional, zero-sum game

Blame Them, Not Immigrants,” Arlie Hochschild, The Guardian, February 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/14/resentment-robots-job-stealers-arlie-hochschild. 4 The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Klaus Schwab, Penguin Random House, January 2017, https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/551710/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/. 5 “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization?” Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, Oxford University, September 2013, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 6 The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation, Carl Frey, Princeton University Press, June 2019, https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691172798/the-technology-trap. 7 “If Robots and AI Steal Our Jobs, a Universal Basic Income Could Help”, Peter H.

…

The new technologies we were witnessing, including also 3D printing, quantum computing, precision medicine, and others, I came to believe, were on par with that of the First Industrial Revolution—the steam engine—those of the Second Industrial Revolution—the combustion engine and electricity—and that of the Third Industrial Revolution—information technology and computing. They were leading to a disruption of the workforce, changing the nature of not just what we do but who we are, something I previously described in my book The Fourth Industrial Revolution.4 In their landmark 2013 study “The Future of Employment,” Carl Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford first warned of the kind of disruption this could bring about.5 They notoriously estimated up to half of jobs would be altered in the coming years because of these new technologies, with many of them disappearing altogether. In 2019, Frey followed up on his original study with the equally eye-opening book The Technology Trap,6 showing how today's labor-replacing technologies fit into the longer history of industrial revolutions.

…

See Asian Tigers Fourth Industrial Revolution, 18, 45, 68, 71, 116, 122, 125, 142–145, 161–162, 177, 186, 201, 208, 212, 213, 237, 239 The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Schwab), 116 Foxconn (Taiwan), 59 France Compagnie de Suez join stock company of, 103 First Industrial Revolution spreading to, 131 La France Insoumise populist party of, 81 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) protests of, 86–87, 195 Youth for Climate movement (2017), 86 La France Insoumise (France), 81 The Freelance Isn't Free Law (New York), 243 Freelancers Union (New York), 242–243 Freelancing work, 237–238, 240–243 Freund, Caroline, 138 Frey, Carl, 116, 135 Frick Coke Company, 132 Frick, Henry, 132 Fridays for Climate strikes (2018), 149, 250 Friedman, Milton, 14, 136, 175, 205, 209 Friedrichshafen (Germany), 4–5, 6–7, 8–9, 251 Fukuyama, Francis, 15, 112 “The Future of Employment” study (2013), 116 G G7 countries, social compact breaking down in, 110–111 Gama, Vasco da, 97 Garikipati, Supriya, 224 Gates, Bill, 132 Gazivoda, Tin, 195 GDP (gross domestic product) China's increased total debt–to–GDP ratio, 62 COVID crisis impact on public debt and, 19 description and function of, 9, 24 emerging markets (2002–2019), 64–65fig formula for calculating, 24 New Zealand's COVID-19 response and impact on, 222–223 New Zealand's focus on social issues instead of, 234–236 post-World War II low level of, 105 private sector percentage of China's, 172 Simon Kuznets' warning on progress measured by, 21–25, 34, 46, 53 Singapore (1965–2019), 123–125 stakeholder model going beyond profits and, 189–193 trade globalization measured by percentage of, 16 See also GNI (gross national income); GNP (gross national product) GDP growth declining rates since the 1960s, 25–28 differentiating between global, national, and regional, 27–28 singular focus of policymaking on, 25 as “war-time metric,” 25 Gender pay equity, 243 Gender representation advocacy of, 243–244 Ireland's experiment in, 194 as stakeholder model issue, 188–189 General Data Protection Regulation (European Union), 212 General-purpose technologies (GPTs), 143 Generation Z workers, 240 German reunification, 17, 78 Germany Berlin Wall (1961–1989) dividing, 75–77, 88, 89 Christian–Democrats (CDU) political party of, 78, 79 erosion of the political center in, 80–90 extreme views replacing Volksparteien, 80, 83 female-led government leadership during COVID-19 pandemic in, 224 First Industrial Revolution spreading to, 131 following the First World War, 4 growing populism and polarizing politics (2020) in, 79, 87–88 Hartmann machine works (Chemnitz, Kingdom of Saxony), 103fig integration of East and West, 17, 78 lowering debt burden through economic growth, 31 neo-Nazi elements protesting COVID-19 responses, 87 reconstruction of post-war economy and society, 3, 7–11, 251 social reforms (1880s) in, 133 Social–Democrats (SPD) political party of, 78, 80–81 stakeholder concept adopted in, 174 “Stunde Null” (or “Zero Hour”) [May 8, 1945] ending the war, 5 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig well-managed COVID crisis response in, 79 See also East Germany; West Germany Ghana, 27, 70 Gig workers, 187–188, 237–238, 240–243 Gig Workers Rising (California), 241 Gig worker strike (2019), 187 Gig Workers United (California), 241 The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today (Twain and Warner), 133 Gini coefficient of China/India, 37fig–38, 226 Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum), 189, 190 Global debt population pyramid and repayment of, 30 problem of rising, 28–31 what is included in, 28 Global economic growth ASEAN nations, 63–66, 67fig “the Asian Century,” 70–71fig Chinese economy impacting, 63–66, 70–72 declining productivity growth impact on, 33–34 Elephant Curve of Global Inequality and Growth graph, 137–138fig foundations of the post-war, 4–7 India, 66, 67–69 low GDP growth impact on, 25–28 low-interest rates and low inflation impact on, 31–33 post-World War II expansion of the, 3, 7–11, 251 rising debt impact on, 28–31 the tumultuous 1970s and 1980s, 11–15 Global economic order Davos Manifesto (1973) on new direction for, 13–14, 88, 213 impact of income inequality on the, 36–41 impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the, 108 requirements of a post-COVID world and, 251 SARS–CoV–2 vaccines development and possible “Great Reset” of, 248 understanding the foundations of post-war, 4–7 Global financial crisis (2007–2009), 18, 34, 112–113, 122 Global Footprint Network (GFN), 19, 48fig–49 Global Infrastructure Hub, 32 Globalists, The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism (Slobodian), 181 Globalization adverse effects of, 107, 110–114 current state of, 108–114 description and implications of, 16 early beginnings and spice routes history of, 99–108 economic decline beginning in 2007, 18–19 GDP measure of trade, 16 New York Times op–ed (Schwab) on, 85 as political ideology, 108 reasons for embracing, 114 success stories from Indonesia, 93–99 three conditions required for positive, 109–110 YouGov–Bertelsmann poll (2018) on, 97 Globalization 4.0, 106–108 Globalization conditions balanced political leadership, 109–110 when functioning as social compact, 109, 110–111 when technology is congruent with economic and societal advantages, 110 Globalization history Age of Discovery (15th to 18th century), 100–102 first wave (19th century–1914), 102–105 globalization 4.0, 106–108 lessons learned from, 108–114 second and third wave (20th century), 105–106 Silk Road and spice routes, 99–102 Global population.

Stakeholder Capitalism: A Global Economy That Works for Progress, People and Planet by Klaus Schwab

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", "World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, air traffic controllers' union, Anthropocene, Apple II, Asian financial crisis, Asperger Syndrome, basic income, Berlin Wall, Big Tech, biodiversity loss, bitcoin, Black Lives Matter, blockchain, blue-collar work, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business process, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, car-free, carbon footprint, carbon tax, centre right, clean tech, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, colonial rule, company town, contact tracing, contact tracing app, Cornelius Vanderbilt, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, COVID-19, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, currency peg, cyber-physical system, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Diane Coyle, digital divide, don't be evil, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, gender pay gap, general purpose technology, George Floyd, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global value chain, global village, Google bus, green new deal, Greta Thunberg, high net worth, hiring and firing, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, independent contractor, industrial robot, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, labor-force participation, lockdown, low interest rates, low skilled workers, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Marc Benioff, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, means of production, megacity, microplastics / micro fibres, Mikhail Gorbachev, mini-job, mittelstand, move fast and break things, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, new economy, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, precariat, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, reserve currency, reshoring, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Salesforce, San Francisco homelessness, School Strike for Climate, self-driving car, seminal paper, shareholder value, Shenzhen special economic zone , Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, social distancing, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, synthetic biology, TaskRabbit, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the scientific method, TikTok, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, transfer pricing, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, War on Poverty, We are the 99%, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population, Yom Kippur War, young professional, zero-sum game

Blame Them, Not Immigrants,” Arlie Hochschild, The Guardian, February 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/14/resentment-robots-job-stealers-arlie-hochschild. 4 The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Klaus Schwab, Penguin Random House, January 2017, https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/551710/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-by-klaus-schwab/. 5 “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization?” Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, Oxford University, September 2013, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 6 The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation, Carl Frey, Princeton University Press, June 2019, https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691172798/the-technology-trap. 7 “If Robots and AI Steal Our Jobs, a Universal Basic Income Could Help”, Peter H.

…

The new technologies we were witnessing, including also 3D printing, quantum computing, precision medicine, and others, I came to believe, were on par with that of the First Industrial Revolution—the steam engine—those of the Second Industrial Revolution—the combustion engine and electricity—and that of the Third Industrial Revolution—information technology and computing. They were leading to a disruption of the workforce, changing the nature of not just what we do but who we are, something I previously described in my book The Fourth Industrial Revolution.4 In their landmark 2013 study “The Future of Employment,” Carl Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford first warned of the kind of disruption this could bring about.5 They notoriously estimated up to half of jobs would be altered in the coming years because of these new technologies, with many of them disappearing altogether. In 2019, Frey followed up on his original study with the equally eye-opening book The Technology Trap,6 showing how today's labor-replacing technologies fit into the longer history of industrial revolutions.

…

See Asian Tigers Fourth Industrial Revolution, 18, 45, 68, 71, 116, 122, 125, 142–145, 161–162, 177, 186, 201, 208, 212, 213, 237, 239 The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Schwab), 116 Foxconn (Taiwan), 59 France Compagnie de Suez join stock company of, 103 First Industrial Revolution spreading to, 131 La France Insoumise populist party of, 81 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) protests of, 86–87, 195 Youth for Climate movement (2017), 86 La France Insoumise (France), 81 The Freelance Isn't Free Law (New York), 243 Freelancers Union (New York), 242–243 Freelancing work, 237–238, 240–243 Freund, Caroline, 138 Frey, Carl, 116, 135 Frick Coke Company, 132 Frick, Henry, 132 Fridays for Climate strikes (2018), 149, 250 Friedman, Milton, 14, 136, 175, 205, 209 Friedrichshafen (Germany), 4–5, 6–7, 8–9, 251 Fukuyama, Francis, 15, 112 “The Future of Employment” study (2013), 116 G G7 countries, social compact breaking down in, 110–111 Gama, Vasco da, 97 Garikipati, Supriya, 224 Gates, Bill, 132 Gazivoda, Tin, 195 GDP (gross domestic product) China's increased total debt–to–GDP ratio, 62 COVID crisis impact on public debt and, 19 description and function of, 9, 24 emerging markets (2002–2019), 64–65fig formula for calculating, 24 New Zealand's COVID-19 response and impact on, 222–223 New Zealand's focus on social issues instead of, 234–236 post-World War II low level of, 105 private sector percentage of China's, 172 Simon Kuznets' warning on progress measured by, 21–25, 34, 46, 53 Singapore (1965–2019), 123–125 stakeholder model going beyond profits and, 189–193 trade globalization measured by percentage of, 16 See also GNI (gross national income); GNP (gross national product) GDP growth declining rates since the 1960s, 25–28 differentiating between global, national, and regional, 27–28 singular focus of policymaking on, 25 as “war-time metric,” 25 Gender pay equity, 243 Gender representation advocacy of, 243–244 Ireland's experiment in, 194 as stakeholder model issue, 188–189 General Data Protection Regulation (European Union), 212 General-purpose technologies (GPTs), 143 Generation Z workers, 240 German reunification, 17, 78 Germany Berlin Wall (1961–1989) dividing, 75–77, 88, 89 Christian–Democrats (CDU) political party of, 78, 79 erosion of the political center in, 80–90 extreme views replacing Volksparteien, 80, 83 female-led government leadership during COVID-19 pandemic in, 224 First Industrial Revolution spreading to, 131 following the First World War, 4 growing populism and polarizing politics (2020) in, 79, 87–88 Hartmann machine works (Chemnitz, Kingdom of Saxony), 103fig integration of East and West, 17, 78 lowering debt burden through economic growth, 31 neo-Nazi elements protesting COVID-19 responses, 87 reconstruction of post-war economy and society, 3, 7–11, 251 social reforms (1880s) in, 133 Social–Democrats (SPD) political party of, 78, 80–81 stakeholder concept adopted in, 174 “Stunde Null” (or “Zero Hour”) [May 8, 1945] ending the war, 5 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig well-managed COVID crisis response in, 79 See also East Germany; West Germany Ghana, 27, 70 Gig workers, 187–188, 237–238, 240–243 Gig Workers Rising (California), 241 Gig worker strike (2019), 187 Gig Workers United (California), 241 The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today (Twain and Warner), 133 Gini coefficient of China/India, 37fig–38, 226 Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum), 189, 190 Global debt population pyramid and repayment of, 30 problem of rising, 28–31 what is included in, 28 Global economic growth ASEAN nations, 63–66, 67fig “the Asian Century,” 70–71fig Chinese economy impacting, 63–66, 70–72 declining productivity growth impact on, 33–34 Elephant Curve of Global Inequality and Growth graph, 137–138fig foundations of the post-war, 4–7 India, 66, 67–69 low GDP growth impact on, 25–28 low-interest rates and low inflation impact on, 31–33 post-World War II expansion of the, 3, 7–11, 251 rising debt impact on, 28–31 the tumultuous 1970s and 1980s, 11–15 Global economic order Davos Manifesto (1973) on new direction for, 13–14, 88, 213 impact of income inequality on the, 36–41 impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the, 108 requirements of a post-COVID world and, 251 SARS–CoV–2 vaccines development and possible “Great Reset” of, 248 understanding the foundations of post-war, 4–7 Global financial crisis (2007–2009), 18, 34, 112–113, 122 Global Footprint Network (GFN), 19, 48fig–49 Global Infrastructure Hub, 32 Globalists, The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism (Slobodian), 181 Globalization adverse effects of, 107, 110–114 current state of, 108–114 description and implications of, 16 early beginnings and spice routes history of, 99–108 economic decline beginning in 2007, 18–19 GDP measure of trade, 16 New York Times op–ed (Schwab) on, 85 as political ideology, 108 reasons for embracing, 114 success stories from Indonesia, 93–99 three conditions required for positive, 109–110 YouGov–Bertelsmann poll (2018) on, 97 Globalization 4.0, 106–108 Globalization conditions balanced political leadership, 109–110 when functioning as social compact, 109, 110–111 when technology is congruent with economic and societal advantages, 110 Globalization history Age of Discovery (15th to 18th century), 100–102 first wave (19th century–1914), 102–105 globalization 4.0, 106–108 lessons learned from, 108–114 second and third wave (20th century), 105–106 Silk Road and spice routes, 99–102 Global population.

The Economic Singularity: Artificial Intelligence and the Death of Capitalism by Calum Chace

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Airbnb, AlphaGo, Alvin Toffler, Amazon Robotics, Andy Rubin, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, basic income, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, Boston Dynamics, bread and circuses, call centre, Chris Urmson, congestion charging, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deep learning, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, digital divide, Douglas Engelbart, Dr. Strangelove, driverless car, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fairchild Semiconductor, Flynn Effect, full employment, future of work, Future Shock, gender pay gap, Geoffrey Hinton, gig economy, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Hans Moravec, Herman Kahn, hype cycle, ImageNet competition, income inequality, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of the telephone, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Kiva Systems, knowledge worker, lifelogging, lump of labour, Lyft, machine translation, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, McJob, means of production, Milgram experiment, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Neil Armstrong, new economy, Nick Bostrom, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, OpenAI, PageRank, pattern recognition, post scarcity, post-industrial society, post-work, precariat, prediction markets, QWERTY keyboard, railway mania, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Rodney Brooks, Sam Altman, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, SoftBank, software is eating the world, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, technological singularity, TED Talk, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, Two Sigma, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, Vernor Vinge, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics, working-age population, Y Combinator, young professional

Sometimes they reserve judgement or sit on the fence, but as far as possible, I present them in order of increasing scepticism about the proposition of widespread unemployability. Frey and Osborne Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne are the directors of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment.[xlix] Their 2013 report “The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?” has been widely quoted. Its approach to analysing US job data has since been used by others to analyse job data from Europe and Japan. The report analyses 2010 US Department of Labour data for 702 jobs, and in a curious blend of precision and vagueness, concludes that “47% of total US employment is in the high risk category, meaning that associated occupations are potentially automatable over some unspecified number of years, perhaps a decade or two.” 19% of the jobs were found to be at medium risk and 33% at low risk.

…

The 48% who thought there would be a net loss of jobs believed that the process was already in train, but that it would get much worse, and that inequality would become a severe problem as a result. Both sides thought that the education system is doing a poor job of preparing young people for the new world of work, and also that the future of employment is not pre-ordained, but is susceptible to good policy. Fundacion Innovacion BankInter BankInter, based in Madrid, is one of the largest banks in Spain. In 2003 it established a Foundation to promote the creation of sustainable wealth in Spain through innovation and entrepreneurship.

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The Economist, December 4, 2003 [ccxiii] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-18/rio-tinto-opens-worlds-first-automated-mine/6863814 [ccxiv] http://www.mining.com/why-western-australia-became-the-center-of-mine-automation/ [ccxv] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state [ccxvi] http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf [ccxvii] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horn_%26_Hardart#Automated_food [ccxviii] http://www.computerworld.com/article/2837810/automation-arrives-at-restaurants-but-dont-blame-rising-minimum-wages.html [ccxix] http://blogs.forrester.com/andy_hoar/15-04-14-death_of_a_b2b_salesman [ccxx] http://www.nuance.com/for-business/customer-service-solutions/nina/index.htm [ccxxi] http://www.zdnet.com/article/swedbank-humanises-customer-service-with-artificial-intelligence-platform/ [ccxxii] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601215/china-is-building-a-robot-army-of-model-workers/ [ccxxiii] http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/sep/12/artificial-intelligence-data-journalism-media [ccxxiv] http://www.arria.com/ [ccxxv] https://www.youtube.com/watch?

Four Futures: Life After Capitalism by Peter Frase

Aaron Swartz, Airbnb, Anthropocene, basic income, bitcoin, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, carbon tax, congestion pricing, cryptocurrency, deindustrialization, do what you love, Dogecoin, Donald Shoup, Edward Snowden, emotional labour, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, fixed income, full employment, future of work, green new deal, Herbert Marcuse, high net worth, high-speed rail, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), iterative process, Jevons paradox, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Kim Stanley Robinson, litecoin, mass incarceration, means of production, military-industrial complex, Occupy movement, pattern recognition, peak oil, plutocrats, post-work, postindustrial economy, price mechanism, private military company, Ray Kurzweil, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart meter, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, Thomas Malthus, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, Wall-E, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, Wolfgang Streeck

., “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013. 3Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, New York: W. W. Norton, 2014. 4Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” OxfordMartin.ox.ac.uk, 2013. 5Kevin Drum, “Welcome, Robot Overlords. Please Don’t Fire Us?,” Mother Jones, May/June 2013. 6Brynjolfsson and McAfee, The Second Machine Age, pp. 7–8. 7Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment.” 8Martin Ford, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, New York: Basic Books, 2015. 9Katie Drummond, “Clothes Will Sew Themselves in Darpa’s Sweat-Free Sweatshops,” Wired.com, June 6, 2012. 10Leanna Garfield, “These Warehouse Robots Can Boost Productivity by 800%,” TechInsider.io, February 26, 2016. 11Ilan Brat, “Robots Step into New Planting, Harvesting Roles,” Wall Street Journal, April 23, 2015. 12Shulamith Firestone, The Dialectic of Sex: The Case for Feminist Revolution, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1970. 13Soraya Chemaly, “What Do Artificial Wombs Mean for Women?”

Exponential: How Accelerating Technology Is Leaving Us Behind and What to Do About It by Azeem Azhar

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", "World Economic Forum" Davos, 23andMe, 3D printing, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Ada Lovelace, additive manufacturing, air traffic controllers' union, Airbnb, algorithmic management, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, Bletchley Park, Blitzscaling, Boeing 737 MAX, book value, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, Chris Urmson, Citizen Lab, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collective bargaining, computer age, computer vision, contact tracing, contact tracing app, coronavirus, COVID-19, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, data science, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, deep learning, deglobalization, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Demis Hassabis, Diane Coyle, digital map, digital rights, disinformation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, drone strike, Elon Musk, emotional labour, energy security, Fairchild Semiconductor, fake news, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Firefox, Frederick Winslow Taylor, fulfillment center, future of work, Garrett Hardin, gender pay gap, general purpose technology, Geoffrey Hinton, gig economy, global macro, global pandemic, global supply chain, global value chain, global village, GPT-3, Hans Moravec, happiness index / gross national happiness, hiring and firing, hockey-stick growth, ImageNet competition, income inequality, independent contractor, industrial robot, intangible asset, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John Perry Barlow, Just-in-time delivery, Kickstarter, Kiva Systems, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, Law of Accelerating Returns, lockdown, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Marc Benioff, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, Mitch Kapor, Mustafa Suleyman, Network effects, new economy, NSO Group, Ocado, offshore financial centre, OpenAI, PalmPilot, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Peter Thiel, Planet Labs, price anchoring, RAND corporation, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, remote working, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Bork, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Salesforce, Sam Altman, scientific management, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, software as a service, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Stuxnet, subscription business, synthetic biology, tacit knowledge, TaskRabbit, tech worker, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, Thomas Malthus, TikTok, Tragedy of the Commons, Turing machine, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, uranium enrichment, vertical integration, warehouse automation, winner-take-all economy, workplace surveillance , Yom Kippur War

Drives China Techfins into Car Insurance – and Beyond’, Digital Finance, 3 June 2020 <https://www.digfingroup.com/insurtech-ai/> [accessed 24 February 2021]. 9 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’, Oxford Martin School working paper, 17 September 2013 <https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/the-future-of-employment/> [accessed 14 September 2020]. 10 Google Scholar citation search shows 7,554 citations to the Frey and Osborne research as of 21 February 2021 <https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cites=8817314921922525274&as_sdt=2005&sciodt=0,5&hl=en>. 11 ‘Forrester Predicts Automation Will Displace 24.7 Million Jobs and Add 14.9 Million Jobs By 2027’, Forrester, 3 April 2017 <https://go.forrester.com/press-newsroom/forrester-predicts-automation-will-displace-24-7-million-jobs-and-add-14-9-million-jobs-by-2027/> [accessed 14 September 2020]. 12 ‘Robots “to Replace 20 Million Factory Jobs”’, BBC News, 26 June 2019 <https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48760799> [accessed 20 September 2020]. 13 John Detrixhe, ‘Deutsche Bank’s CEO Hints Half Its Workers Could Be Replaced by Machines’, Quartz, 8 July 2019 <https://qz.com/1123703/deutsche-bank-ceo-john-cryan-suggests-half-its-workers-could-be-replaced-by-machines/> [accessed 25 September 2020]. 14 Eric J.

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, Wall Street Journal, 1 April 2019 <https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-ai-destroy-more-jobs-than-it-creates-over-the-next-decade-11554156299> [accessed 11 January 2021] Frey, Carl Benedikt, The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019) Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’, Oxford Martin School working paper, 17 September 2013 <https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/the-future-of-employment/> [accessed 14 September 2020] Friedman, Milton, ‘A Friedman Doctrine – The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits’, New York Times, 13 September 1970 <https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctrine-the-social-responsibility-of-business-is-to.html> [accessed 13 July 2020] Frischmann, Brett, Alain Marciano and Giovanni Battista Ramello, ‘Retrospectives: Tragedy of the Commons after 50 Years’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 33(4), 2019, pp. 211–28 <https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.4.211> Giddens, Anthony, The Constitution of Society: Outline of the Theory of Structuration (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1986) Giuliano, Genevieve, Sanggyun Kang, and Quan Yuan, ‘Agglomeration Economies and Evolving Urban Form’, The Annals of Regional Science, 63(3), 2019, pp. 377–398 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-019-00957-4> Gofman, Michael, and Zhao Jin, ‘Artificial Intelligence, Human Capital, and Innovation’, SSRN Electronic Journal, October 2019 <https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3449440> Greenberg, Andy, ‘The Untold Story of NotPetya, the Most Devastating Cyberattack in History’, Wired, 22 August 2018 <https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/> [accessed 3 August 2020] Grim, Cheryl, ‘What Drives Productivity Growth?’

The Road to Conscious Machines by Michael Wooldridge

Ada Lovelace, AI winter, algorithmic bias, AlphaGo, Andrew Wiles, Anthropocene, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, basic income, Bletchley Park, Boeing 747, British Empire, call centre, Charles Babbage, combinatorial explosion, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, DARPA: Urban Challenge, deep learning, deepfake, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, don't be evil, Donald Trump, driverless car, Elaine Herzberg, Elon Musk, Eratosthenes, factory automation, fake news, future of work, gamification, general purpose technology, Geoffrey Hinton, gig economy, Google Glasses, intangible asset, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John von Neumann, Loebner Prize, Minecraft, Mustafa Suleyman, Nash equilibrium, Nick Bostrom, Norbert Wiener, NP-complete, P = NP, P vs NP, paperclip maximiser, pattern recognition, Philippa Foot, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, strong AI, technological singularity, telemarketer, Tesla Model S, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, theory of mind, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, traveling salesman, trolley problem, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, Von Neumann architecture, warehouse robotics

That AI will change the nature of work seems certain. What is much less clear is whether the effects will be as dramatic and fundamental as those of the Industrial Revolution, or whether they will represent a more modest change. The debate in this area was galvanized by a 2013 report entitled ‘The Future of Employment’, written by two colleagues of mine at the University of Oxford, Carl Frey and Michael Osborne.1 The rather startling headline prediction of the report was that up to 47 per cent of jobs in the United States were susceptible to automation by AI and related technologies in the relatively near future.

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Journal of Philosophical Logic, 25(3), 1996, 307–32. 20. A. Y. Ng and S. Russell. ‘Algorithms for Inverse Reinforcement Learning’. Proceedings of the Seventeenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML ’00), 2000. * * * CHAPTER 8: HOW THINGS MIGHT ACTUALLY GO WRONG 1. C. B. Benedikt Frey and M. A. Osborne. ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, January 2017. 2. https://rodneybrooks.com/blog/. 3. https://tinyurl.com/yytefewg. 4. http://tinyurl.com/ydb9bpz4. 5. http://tinyurl.com/ycq6jk35. 6. http://tinyurl.com/y74yfk8a. 7.

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A A* 77 À la recherche du temps perdu (Proust) 205–8 accountability 257 Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) 87–8 adversarial machine learning 190 AF (Artificial Flight) parable 127–9, 243 agent-based AI 136–49 agent-based interfaces 147, 149 ‘Agents That Reduce Work and Information Overload’ (Maes) 147–8 AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) 41 AI – difficulty of 24–8 – ethical 246–62, 284, 285 – future of 7–8 – General 42, 53, 116, 119–20 – Golden Age of 47–88 – history of 5–7 – meaning of 2–4 – narrow 42 – origin of name 51–2 – strong 36–8, 41, 309–14 – symbolic 42–3, 44 – varieties of 36–8 – weak 36–8 AI winter 87–8 AI-complete problems 84 ‘Alchemy and AI’ (Dreyfus) 85 AlexNet 187 algorithmic bias 287–9, 292–3 alienation 274–7 allocative harm 287–8 AlphaFold 214 AlphaGo 196–9 AlphaGo Zero 199 AlphaZero 199–200 Alvey programme 100 Amazon 275–6 Apple Watch 218 Argo AI 232 arithmetic 24–6 Arkin, Ron 284 ARPA (Advanced Research Projects Agency) 87–8 Artificial Flight (AF) parable 127–9, 243 Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) 41 artificial intelligence see AI artificial languages 56 Asilomar principles 254–6 Asimov, Isaac 244–6 Atari 2600 games console 192–6, 327–8 augmented reality 296–7 automated diagnosis 220–1 automated translation 204–8 automation 265, 267–72 autonomous drones 282–4 Autonomous Vehicle Disengagement Reports 231 autonomous vehicles see driverless cars autonomous weapons 281–7 autonomy levels 227–8 Autopilot 228–9 B backprop/backpropagation 182–3 backward chaining 94 Bayes nets 158 Bayes’ Theorem 155–8, 365–7 Bayesian networks 158 behavioural AI 132–7 beliefs 108–10 bias 172 black holes 213–14 Blade Runner 38 Blocks World 57–63, 126–7 blood diseases 94–8 board games 26, 75–6 Boole, George 107 brains 43, 306, 330–1 see also electronic brains branching factors 73 Breakout (video game) 193–5 Brooks, Rodney 125–9, 132, 134, 243 bugs 258 C Campaign to Stop Killer Robots 286 CaptionBot 201–4 Cardiogram 215 cars 27–8, 155, 223–35 certainty factors 97 ceteris paribus preferences 262 chain reactions 242–3 chatbots 36 checkers 75–7 chess 163–4, 199 Chinese room 311–14 choice under uncertainty 152–3 combinatorial explosion 74, 80–1 common values and norms 260 common-sense reasoning 121–3 see also reasoning COMPAS 280 complexity barrier 77–85 comprehension 38–41 computational complexity 77–85 computational effort 129 computers – decision making 23–4 – early developments 20 – as electronic brains 20–4 – intelligence 21–2 – programming 21–2 – reliability 23 – speed of 23 – tasks for 24–8 – unsolved problems 28 ‘Computing Machinery and Intelligence’ (Turing) 32 confirmation bias 295 conscious machines 327–30 consciousness 305–10, 314–17, 331–4 consensus reality 296–8 consequentialist theories 249 contradictions 122–3 conventional warfare 286 credit assignment problem 173, 196 Criado Perez, Caroline 291–2 crime 277–81 Cruise Automation 232 curse of dimensionality 172 cutlery 261 Cybernetics (Wiener) 29 Cyc 114–21, 208 D DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) 87–8, 225–6 Dartmouth summer school 1955 50–2 decidable problems 78–9 decision problems 15–19 deduction 106 deep learning 168, 184–90, 208 DeepBlue 163–4 DeepFakes 297–8 DeepMind 167–8, 190–200, 220–1, 327–8 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) 87–8, 225–6 dementia 219 DENDRAL 98 Dennett, Daniel 319–25 depth-first search 74–5 design stance 320–1 desktop computers 145 diagnosis 220–1 disengagements 231 diversity 290–3 ‘divide and conquer’ assumption 53–6, 128 Do-Much-More 35–6 dot-com bubble 148–9 Dreyfus, Hubert 85–6, 311 driverless cars 27–8, 155, 223–35 drones 282–4 Dunbar, Robin 317–19 Dunbar’s number 318 E ECAI (European Conference on AI) 209–10 electronic brains 20–4 see also computers ELIZA 32–4, 36, 63 employment 264–77 ENIAC 20 Entscheidungsproblem 15–19 epiphenomenalism 316 error correction procedures 180 ethical AI 246–62, 284, 285 European Conference on AI (ECAI) 209–10 evolutionary development 331–3 evolutionary theory 316 exclusive OR (XOR) 180 expected utility 153 expert systems 89–94, 123 see also Cyc; DENDRAL; MYCIN; R1/XCON eye scans 220–1 F Facebook 237 facial recognition 27 fake AI 298–301 fake news 293–8 fake pictures of people 214 Fantasia 261 feature extraction 171–2 feedback 172–3 Ferranti Mark 1 20 Fifth Generation Computer Systems Project 113–14 first-order logic 107 Ford 232 forward chaining 94 Frey, Carl 268–70 ‘The Future of Employment’ (Frey & Osborne) 268–70 G game theory 161–2 game-playing 26 Gangs Matrix 280 gender stereotypes 292–3 General AI 41, 53, 116, 119–20 General Motors 232 Genghis robot 134–6 gig economy 275 globalization 267 Go 73–4, 196–9 Golden Age of AI 47–88 Google 167, 231, 256–7 Google Glass 296–7 Google Translate 205–8, 292–3 GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) 187–8 gradient descent 183 Grand Challenges 2004/5 225–6 graphical user interfaces (GUI) 144–5 Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) 187–8 GUI (graphical user interfaces) 144–5 H hard problem of consciousness 314–17 hard problems 84, 86–7 Harm Assessment Risk Tool (HART) 277–80 Hawking, Stephen 238 healthcare 215–23 Herschel, John 304–6 Herzberg, Elaine 230 heuristic search 75–7, 164 heuristics 91 higher-order intentional reasoning 323–4, 328 high-level programming languages 144 Hilbert, David 15–16 Hinton, Geoff 185–6, 221 HOMER 141–3, 146 homunculus problem 315 human brain 43, 306, 330–1 human intuition 311 human judgement 222 human rights 277–81 human-level intelligence 28–36, 241–3 ‘humans are special’ argument 310–11 I image classification 186–7 image-captioning 200–4 ImageNet 186–7 Imitation Game 30 In Search of Lost Time (Proust) 205–8 incentives 261 indistinguishability 30–1, 37, 38 Industrial Revolutions 265–7 inference engines 92–4 insurance 219–20 intelligence 21–2, 127–8, 200 – human-level 28–36, 241–3 ‘Intelligence Without Representation’ (Brooks) 129 Intelligent Knowledge-Based Systems 100 intentional reasoning 323–4, 328 intentional stance 321–7 intentional systems 321–2 internal mental phenomena 306–7 Internet chatbots 36 intuition 311 inverse reinforcement learning 262 Invisible Women (Criado Perez) 291–2 J Japan 113–14 judgement 222 K Kasparov, Garry 163 knowledge bases 92–4 knowledge elicitation problem 123 knowledge graph 120–1 Knowledge Navigator 146–7 knowledge representation 91, 104, 129–30, 208 knowledge-based AI 89–123, 208 Kurzweil, Ray 239–40 L Lee Sedol 197–8 leisure 272 Lenat, Doug 114–21 lethal autonomous weapons 281–7 Lighthill Report 87–8 LISP 49, 99 Loebner Prize Competition 34–6 logic 104–7, 121–2 logic programming 111–14 logic-based AI 107–11, 130–2 M Mac computers 144–6 McCarthy, John 49–52, 107–8, 326–7 machine learning (ML) 27, 54–5, 168–74, 209–10, 287–9 machines with mental states 326–7 Macintosh computers 144–6 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) 306 male-orientation 290–3 Manchester Baby computer 20, 24–6, 143–4 Manhattan Project 51 Marx, Karl 274–6 maximizing expected utility 154 Mercedes 231 Mickey Mouse 261 microprocessors 267–8, 271–2 military drones 282–4 mind modelling 42 mind-body problem 314–17 see also consciousness minimax search 76 mining industry 234 Minsky, Marvin 34, 52, 180 ML (machine learning) 27, 54–5, 168–74, 209–10, 287–9 Montezuma’s Revenge (video game) 195–6 Moore’s law 240 Moorfields Eye Hospital 220–1 moral agency 257–8 Moral Machines 251–3 MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) 306 multi-agent systems 160–2 multi-layer perceptrons 177, 180, 182 Musk, Elon 238 MYCIN 94–8, 217 N Nagel, Thomas 307–10 narrow AI 42 Nash, John Forbes Jr 50–1, 161 Nash equilibrium 161–2 natural languages 56 negative feedback 173 neural nets/neural networks 44, 168, 173–90, 369–72 neurons 174 Newell, Alan 52–3 norms 260 NP-complete problems 81–5, 164–5 nuclear energy 242–3 nuclear fusion 305 O ontological engineering 117 Osborne, Michael 268–70 P P vs NP problem 83 paperclips 261 Papert, Seymour 180 Parallel Distributed Processing (PDP) 182–4 Pepper 299 perception 54 perceptron models 174–81, 183 Perceptrons (Minsky & Papert) 180–1, 210 personal healthcare management 217–20 perverse instantiation 260–1 Phaedrus 315 physical stance 319–20 Plato 315 police 277–80 Pratt, Vaughan 117–19 preference relations 151 preferences 150–2, 154 privacy 219 problem solving and planning 55–6, 66–77, 128 programming 21–2 programming languages 144 PROLOG 112–14, 363–4 PROMETHEUS 224–5 protein folding 214 Proust, Marcel 205–8 Q qualia 306–7 QuickSort 26 R R1/XCON 98–9 radiology 215, 221 railway networks 259 RAND Corporation 51 rational decision making 150–5 reasoning 55–6, 121–3, 128–30, 137, 315–16, 323–4, 328 regulation of AI 243 reinforcement learning 172–3, 193, 195, 262 representation harm 288 responsibility 257–8 rewards 172–3, 196 robots – as autonomous weapons 284–5 – Baye’s theorem 157 – beliefs 108–10 – fake 299–300 – indistinguishability 38 – intentional stance 326–7 – SHAKEY 63–6 – Sophia 299–300 – Three Laws of Robotics 244–6 – trivial tasks 61 – vacuum cleaning 132–6 Rosenblatt, Frank 174–81 rules 91–2, 104, 359–62 Russia 261 Rutherford, Ernest (1st Baron Rutherford of Nelson) 242 S Sally-Anne tests 328–9, 330 Samuel, Arthur 75–7 SAT solvers 164–5 Saudi Arabia 299–300 scripts 100–2 search 26, 68–77, 164, 199 search trees 70–1 Searle, John 311–14 self-awareness 41, 305 see also consciousness semantic nets 102 sensors 54 SHAKEY the robot 63–6 SHRDLU 56–63 Simon, Herb 52–3, 86 the Singularity 239–43 The Singularity is Near (Kurzweil) 239 Siri 149, 298 Smith, Matt 201–4 smoking 173 social brain 317–19 see also brains social media 293–6 social reasoning 323, 324–5 social welfare 249 software agents 143–9 software bugs 258 Sophia 299–300 sorting 26 spoken word translation 27 STANLEY 226 STRIPS 65 strong AI 36–8, 41, 309–14 subsumption architecture 132–6 subsumption hierarchy 134 sun 304 supervised learning 169 syllogisms 105, 106 symbolic AI 42–3, 44, 181 synapses 174 Szilard, Leo 242 T tablet computers 146 team-building problem 78–81, 83 Terminator narrative of AI 237–9 Tesla 228–9 text recognition 169–71 Theory of Mind (ToM) 330 Three Laws of Robotics 244–6 TIMIT 292 ToM (Theory of Mind) 330 ToMnet 330 TouringMachines 139–41 Towers of Hanoi 67–72 training data 169–72, 288–9, 292 translation 204–8 transparency 258 travelling salesman problem 82–3 Trolley Problem 246–53 Trump, Donald 294 Turing, Alan 14–15, 17–19, 20, 24–6, 77–8 Turing Machines 18–19, 21 Turing test 29–38 U Uber 168, 230 uncertainty 97–8, 155–8 undecidable problems 19, 78 understanding 201–4, 312–14 unemployment 264–77 unintended consequences 263 universal basic income 272–3 Universal Turing Machines 18, 19 Upanishads 315 Urban Challenge 2007 226–7 utilitarianism 249 utilities 151–4 utopians 271 V vacuum cleaning robots 132–6 values and norms 260 video games 192–6, 327–8 virtue ethics 250 Von Neumann and Morgenstern model 150–5 Von Neumann architecture 20 W warfare 285–6 WARPLAN 113 Waymo 231, 232–3 weak AI 36–8 weapons 281–7 wearable technology 217–20 web search 148–9 Weizenbaum, Joseph 32–4 Winograd schemas 39–40 working memory 92 X XOR (exclusive OR) 180 Z Z3 computer 19–20 PELICAN BOOKS Economics: The User’s Guide Ha-Joon Chang Human Evolution Robin Dunbar Revolutionary Russia: 1891–1991 Orlando Figes The Domesticated Brain Bruce Hood Greek and Roman Political Ideas Melissa Lane Classical Literature Richard Jenkyns Who Governs Britain?

The Driver in the Driverless Car: How Our Technology Choices Will Create the Future by Vivek Wadhwa, Alex Salkever

23andMe, 3D printing, Airbnb, AlphaGo, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, benefit corporation, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, clean water, correlation does not imply causation, CRISPR, deep learning, DeepMind, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, double helix, driverless car, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, gigafactory, Google bus, Hyperloop, income inequality, information security, Internet of things, job automation, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, Law of Accelerating Returns, license plate recognition, life extension, longitudinal study, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mary Meeker, Menlo Park, microbiome, military-industrial complex, mobile money, new economy, off-the-grid, One Laptop per Child (OLPC), personalized medicine, phenotype, precision agriculture, radical life extension, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, seminal paper, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart grid, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak, Stuxnet, supercomputer in your pocket, synthetic biology, Tesla Model S, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, Thomas Davenport, Travis Kalanick, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, uranium enrichment, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero day

Some researchers, such as Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, see the automatons inevitably gobbling up more and more meaningful slices of our work.9 Oxford University researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne caused a tremendous stir in September 2013, when they asserted in a seminal paper that A.I. would put 47 percent of current U.S. employment “at risk.”10 The paper, “The Future of Employment,” is a rigorous and detailed historical review of research on the effect of technology innovation upon labor markets and employment. In a recent research paper, McKinsey & Company found that “only about 5 percent of occupations could be fully automated by adapting current technology. However, today’s technologies could automate 45 percent of the activities people are paid to perform across all occupations.

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Jason Kravarik and Sara Sidner, “The Dallas shootout, in the eyes of police,” CNN 15 July 2016, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_shooting_of_Dallas_police_officers (accessed 21 October 2016). 9. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (rev.), W.W. Norton, 2016, http://books.wwnorton.com/books/The-Second-Machine-Age (accessed 21 October 2016). 10. Michael A. Osborne and Carl Benedikt Frey, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?, Oxford: University of Oxford, 2013, http://futureoflife.org/data/PDF/michael_osborne.pdf (accessed 21 October 2016). 11. James Manyika, Michael Chui, and Mehdi Miremadi, “These are the jobs least likely to go to robots,” Fortune 11 July 2006, http://fortune.com/2016/07/11/skills-gap-automation. 12.

Angrynomics by Eric Lonergan, Mark Blyth

AlphaGo, Amazon Mechanical Turk, anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, basic income, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, bitcoin, blockchain, Branko Milanovic, Brexit referendum, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, central bank independence, collective bargaining, COVID-19, credit crunch, cryptocurrency, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Erik Brynjolfsson, Extinction Rebellion, fake news, full employment, gig economy, green new deal, Greta Thunberg, hiring and firing, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, income per capita, Jeremy Corbyn, job automation, labour market flexibility, liberal capitalism, lockdown, low interest rates, market clearing, Martin Wolf, Modern Monetary Theory, precariat, price stability, quantitative easing, Ronald Reagan, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Skype, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, spectrum auction, The Future of Employment, The Great Moderation, The Spirit Level, universal basic income

, CESifo Working Paper Series, 7159 (2018), 5. 16.Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Report on the economic wellbeing of US households in 2017”, 1; https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2017-report-economic-well-being-us-households-201805.pdf. 17.Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FEDS Notes, “A wealthless recovery”; https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/asset-ownership-and-the-uneven-recovery-from-the-great-recession-20180913.htm. 18.Anne Case & Angus Deaton, “Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, spring 2017; https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/casetextsp17bpea.pdf. 19.See Stephen Margolin & Juliet Schor, The Golden Age of Capitalism (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992). 20.See Eric Helleiner, States and the Re-emergence of Global Finance (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1994). 21.See Juliet Johnson, The Priests of Prosperity (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2016). 22.See “Citibank launches $100 million ad campaign”; https://www.marketingsherpa.com/article/citibank-launches-100-million-ad. 23.See Richard Wilkinson & Kate Pickett, The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger (London: Allen Lane, 2009). 24.See respectively, Carl Frey & Michael Osborne, “The future of employment” (2013); https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf; Bank of England, “Will a robot takeover my job”; https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/knowledgebank/will-a-robot-takeover-my-job and OECD, “Automation, skills use and training” (2018); https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/fr/employment/automation-skills-use-and-training_2e2f4eea-en. 25.A search of the Financial Times archives from 2009 to 2020 on the topic “robots and employment” yields 403 results. 26.See Matthew Tracey & Joachim Fels, “70 is the new 65”, Pimco (2016); https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/viewpoints/in-depth/70-is-the-new-65-demographics-still-support-lower-rates-for-longer. 27.See Timo Fetzer, “Did austerity cause Brexit?”

The AI Economy: Work, Wealth and Welfare in the Robot Age by Roger Bootle

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Albert Einstein, AlphaGo, Alvin Toffler, anti-work, antiwork, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Bernie Sanders, Bletchley Park, blockchain, call centre, Cambridge Analytica, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carl Icahn, Chris Urmson, computer age, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deep learning, DeepMind, deindustrialization, Demis Hassabis, deskilling, Dr. Strangelove, driverless car, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, facts on the ground, fake news, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, Future Shock, general purpose technology, Great Leap Forward, Hans Moravec, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of the wheel, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, Jeremy Corbyn, job automation, job satisfaction, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, low interest rates, machine translation, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, mega-rich, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Ocado, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, Phillips curve, positional goods, quantitative easing, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Solow, Rutger Bregman, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, seminal paper, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley billionaire, Simon Kuznets, Skype, social intelligence, spinning jenny, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, synthetic biology, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, universal basic income, US Airways Flight 1549, Vernor Vinge, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, wealth creators, winner-take-all economy, world market for maybe five computers, Y2K, Yogi Berra

., Florescu, E. and The Millennium Project Team (2016), http:/​/​107.​22.​164.​43/​millennium/​2015-SOF-ExecutiveSummary-English.​pdf 17 Nedelkoska, L. and Quintini, G. (2018) Automation, Skills Use and Training, OECD Social, Employment and Migration. Working Papers 202, Paris: OECD Publishing, 2018, https:/​/​www.​oecd-ilibrary.​org/​employment/​automation-skills-use-and-training_​2e2f4eea-en 18 Frey, C. B. and Osborne, M. A. (2013) “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization?” https:/​/​www.​oxfordmartin.​ox.​ac.​uk/​downloads/​academic/​The_​Future_​of_​Employment.​pdf 19 Quoted in the Financial Times, February 25/26, 2017. 20 Chui, M. Manyika, J. and Miremadi, M. (2015) “Four Fundamentals of Workplace Automation,” McKinsey Quarterly (November). 21 Max Tegmark has laid down three criteria for judging whether a job is more or less likely to be challenged, or replaced, by robots any time soon.

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In other words, they are markedly lacking in imagination. These failings are not restricted to would-be visionaries past. They can also afflict us. So, we must tread extremely warily. Having said that, and having dosed ourselves with lashings of humility, and drunk deep from the well of skepticism, there is a lot that we can say about the future of employment in the new robot- and AI-dominated future. Some studies have tried to estimate the number of jobs that will disappear in particular sectors and to hazard a guess at what number of new jobs that will appear. These exercises can have some value. Indeed, I will refer to some of their results below.

WTF?: What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us by Tim O'Reilly

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", 4chan, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, AlphaGo, Alvin Roth, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Robotics, Amazon Web Services, AOL-Time Warner, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, behavioural economics, benefit corporation, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Bill Joy: nanobots, bitcoin, Blitzscaling, blockchain, book value, Bretton Woods, Brewster Kahle, British Empire, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, carbon tax, Carl Icahn, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, computer vision, congestion pricing, corporate governance, corporate raider, creative destruction, CRISPR, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, data acquisition, data science, deep learning, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, Dennis Ritchie, deskilling, DevOps, Didi Chuxing, digital capitalism, disinformation, do well by doing good, Donald Davies, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, fake news, Filter Bubble, Firefox, Flash crash, Free Software Foundation, fulfillment center, full employment, future of work, George Akerlof, gig economy, glass ceiling, Glass-Steagall Act, Goodhart's law, Google Glasses, Gordon Gekko, gravity well, greed is good, Greyball, Guido van Rossum, High speed trading, hiring and firing, Home mortgage interest deduction, Hyperloop, income inequality, independent contractor, index fund, informal economy, information asymmetry, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of movable type, invisible hand, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jitney, job automation, job satisfaction, John Bogle, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John Zimmer (Lyft cofounder), Kaizen: continuous improvement, Ken Thompson, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, Kim Stanley Robinson, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, Lao Tzu, Larry Ellison, Larry Wall, Lean Startup, Leonard Kleinrock, Lyft, machine readable, machine translation, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, McMansion, microbiome, microservices, minimum viable product, mortgage tax deduction, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Nick Bostrom, obamacare, Oculus Rift, OpenAI, OSI model, Overton Window, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, Paul Buchheit, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, Ponzi scheme, post-truth, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Feynman, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Coase, Rutger Bregman, Salesforce, Sam Altman, school choice, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, SETI@home, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Skype, smart contracts, Snapchat, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, social web, software as a service, software patent, spectrum auction, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, stock buybacks, strong AI, synthetic biology, TaskRabbit, telepresence, the built environment, the Cathedral and the Bazaar, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, the map is not the territory, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Davenport, Tony Fadell, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, transcontinental railway, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, trickle-down economics, two-pizza team, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, ubercab, universal basic income, US Airways Flight 1549, VA Linux, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, Y Combinator, yellow journalism, zero-sum game, Zipcar

x it wants an AI to make three-fourths of management decisions: Olivia Solon, “World’s Largest Hedge Fund to Replace Managers with Artificial Intelligence,” Guardian, December 22, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/22/bridgewater-associates-ai-artificial-intelligence-manage ment. x Oxford University researchers estimate: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The _Future_of_Employment.pdf. x Airbnb has more rooms on offer: Andrew Cave, “Airbnb Is on Track to Be the World’s Largest Hotelier,” Business Insider, November 26, 2013, http://www.businessinsider.com/airbnb-largest-hotelier-2013–11.

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CHAPTER 14: WE DON’T HAVE TO RUN OUT OF JOBS 298 “live wisely and agreeably and well”: John Maynard Keynes, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” in Essays in Persuasion (New York: Harcourt Brace, 1932), 358–73, available online from http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ 116a/keynes1.pdf. 298 the world has been getting better: Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, “Global Extreme Poverty,” OurWorldIn Data.org, first published in 2013; substantive revision March 27, 2017, retrieved April 4, 2017, https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty/. 299 once destroyed factory jobs: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation,” Oxford Martin Institute, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of _Employment.pdf. 299 the age of growth is over: Robert Gordon, “The Death of Innovation, the End of Growth,” TED 2013, https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_gordon _the_death_of_innovation_the_end_of _growth. 301 something that had never been done before: Margot Lee Shetterly, Hidden Figures (New York: William Morrow, 2016). 302 well-paid human jobs: Already, in the US, 43% of the electric power generation workforce is employed in solar technologies, versus 22% of electric power generation via fossil fuels.

Humans Need Not Apply: A Guide to Wealth and Work in the Age of Artificial Intelligence by Jerry Kaplan

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Amazon Web Services, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, bank run, bitcoin, Bob Noyce, Brian Krebs, business cycle, buy low sell high, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, combinatorial explosion, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, driverless car, drop ship, Easter island, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, estate planning, Fairchild Semiconductor, Flash crash, Gini coefficient, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, haute couture, hiring and firing, income inequality, index card, industrial robot, information asymmetry, invention of agriculture, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Kiva Systems, Larry Ellison, Loebner Prize, Mark Zuckerberg, mortgage debt, natural language processing, Nick Bostrom, Own Your Own Home, pattern recognition, Satoshi Nakamoto, school choice, Schrödinger's Cat, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, short squeeze, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, software as a service, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, Turing test, Vitalik Buterin, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working poor, Works Progress Administration

Washington Post, March 11, 2014, http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/03/11/just-how-common-are-pilot-suicides/?tid=pm_national_pop. 42. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 43. “Fact Sheet on the President’s Plan to Make College More Affordable: A Better Bargain for the Middle Class,” press release, the White House, August 22, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/22/fact-sheet-president-s-plan -make-college-more-affordable-better-bargain-. 44.

Utopia for Realists: The Case for a Universal Basic Income, Open Borders, and a 15-Hour Workweek by Rutger Bregman

"World Economic Forum" Davos, Alan Greenspan, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, Bartolomé de las Casas, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Branko Milanovic, cognitive dissonance, computer age, conceptual framework, credit crunch, David Graeber, Diane Coyle, driverless car, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Ford Model T, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, full employment, George Gilder, George Santayana, happiness index / gross national happiness, Henry Ford's grandson gave labor union leader Walter Reuther a tour of the company’s new, automated factory…, income inequality, invention of gunpowder, James Watt: steam engine, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, low skilled workers, means of production, megacity, meta-analysis, microcredit, minimum wage unemployment, Mont Pelerin Society, Nathan Meyer Rothschild: antibiotics, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, precariat, public intellectual, radical decentralization, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Rutger Bregman, Second Machine Age, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, stem cell, Steven Pinker, TED Talk, telemarketer, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, The Spirit Level, The Theory of the Leisure Class by Thorstein Veblen, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, wage slave, War on Poverty, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, wikimedia commons, women in the workforce, working poor, World Values Survey

See: John Markoff, “Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software,” The New York Times (March 4, 2011). http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html 16. Warren G. Bennis first said this. Cited in: Mark Fisher, The Millionaire’s Book of Quotations (1991), p. 15. 17. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation,” Oxford Martin School (September 17, 2013). http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf For the calculation for Europe, see: http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1399-chart-of-the-week-54-percent-of-eu-jobs-atrisk-of-computerisation 18. Gary Marcus, “Why We Should Think About The Threat of Artificial Intelligence,” The New Yorker (October 24, 2013). http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/10/why-we-should-think-about-the-threat-of-artificial-intelligence.html 19.

The Innovation Illusion: How So Little Is Created by So Many Working So Hard by Fredrik Erixon, Bjorn Weigel

Airbnb, Alan Greenspan, Albert Einstein, American ideology, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Basel III, Bernie Madoff, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, Blue Ocean Strategy, BRICs, Burning Man, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, classic study, Clayton Christensen, Colonization of Mars, commoditize, commodity super cycle, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crony capitalism, dark matter, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, discounted cash flows, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, Dr. Strangelove, driverless car, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fairchild Semiconductor, fear of failure, financial engineering, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, general purpose technology, George Gilder, global supply chain, global value chain, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Gordon Gekko, Greenspan put, Herman Kahn, high net worth, hiring and firing, hockey-stick growth, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, income per capita, index fund, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Just-in-time delivery, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, laissez-faire capitalism, low interest rates, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, Martin Wolf, mass affluent, means of production, middle-income trap, Mont Pelerin Society, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, pensions crisis, Peter Thiel, Potemkin village, precautionary principle, price mechanism, principal–agent problem, Productivity paradox, QWERTY keyboard, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, risk tolerance, risk/return, Robert Gordon, Robert Solow, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, subprime mortgage crisis, technological determinism, technological singularity, TED Talk, telemarketer, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, total factor productivity, transaction costs, transportation-network company, tulip mania, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, uber lyft, University of East Anglia, unpaid internship, Vanguard fund, vertical integration, Yogi Berra

Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne, “Technology at Work: The Future of Innovation and Employment.” Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, Feb. 2015. At http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/reports/Citi_GPS_Technology_Work.pdf. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael A. Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation.” Paper, Sept. 17, 2013. At http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. Frum, David, “Paris Taxi Shortage: It’s about Jobs.” CNN, July 10, 2012. Fukuyama, Francis, The End of History and the Last Man. Simon & Schuster, 2006. Gabler, Alain, and Markus Poschke, “Experimentation by Firms, Distortions, and Aggregate Productivity.”

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71.Roine and Waldenström, “On the Role of Capital Gains in Swedish Income Inequality.” 72.Konjunktur Institutet, “Lönebildningsrapporten,” 30. 73.US President, “Economic Report,” 34. 74.US President, “Economic Report,” 34. 75.Mokyr, “What Today’s Economic Gloomsayers Are Missing.” 76.Marvin, When Old Technologies Were New. 77.Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment,” 45. 78.Ford, Rise of the Robots, 284. 79.Kan, “Foxconn Expects Robots to Take over More Factory Work.” 80.Kan, “Foxconn Expects Robots to Take over More Factory Work.” 81.Kan, “Foxconn’s CEO Backpedals on Robot Takeover at Factories.” 82.IFR, “Robots Improve Manufacturing Success and Create Jobs.” 83.Graetz and Michaels, “Robots at Work.” 84.Fox Nation, “Obama Blames ATMs for High Unemployment.” 85.Bessen, Learning by Doing, 108. 86.Approximately in 1745 in England, and one year later in France. 87.Joyce, Ulysses, 82. 88.Rothschild, “The Sourdough Hotel.” 89.Marx and Engels, The Communist Manifesto, 12. 90.Haltiwanger, Hathaway, and Miranda, “Declining Business Dynamism in the US High-Technology Sector,” 1. 91.Andrews, Criscuolo, and Gal, “Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy,” 14. 9 The Future and How to Prevent It 1.Toynbee, A Study of History: Abridgement of Volumes I–VI, 273. 2.Buiter, Rahbari, and Seydl, “The Long-Run Decline in Advanced-Economy Investment.” 3.Kotlikoff and Burns, The Clash of Generations, 229. 4.Wilson and Purushothaman, “Dreaming with BRICs.” 5.Xie, “Goldman’s BRIC Era Ends.” 6.Das, India Grows at Night. 7.Magnus, “Hitting a BRIC Wall.” 8.IMF, “Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices.” 9.Hoenig, “Back to Basics.” 10.The Economist, “One Regulator to Rule Them All.” 11.Zingales, “Does Finance Benefit Society?”

Reinventing Capitalism in the Age of Big Data by Viktor Mayer-Schönberger, Thomas Ramge

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Air France Flight 447, Airbnb, Alvin Roth, Apollo 11, Atul Gawande, augmented reality, banking crisis, basic income, Bayesian statistics, Bear Stearns, behavioural economics, bitcoin, blockchain, book value, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, centralized clearinghouse, Checklist Manifesto, cloud computing, cognitive bias, cognitive load, conceptual framework, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, data science, Didi Chuxing, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, double entry bookkeeping, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Evgeny Morozov, flying shuttle, Ford Model T, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, fundamental attribution error, George Akerlof, gig economy, Google Glasses, Higgs boson, information asymmetry, interchangeable parts, invention of the telegraph, inventory management, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job satisfaction, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, land reform, Large Hadron Collider, lone genius, low cost airline, low interest rates, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, market design, market fundamentalism, means of production, meta-analysis, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, multi-sided market, natural language processing, Neil Armstrong, Network effects, Nick Bostrom, Norbert Wiener, offshore financial centre, Parag Khanna, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, price anchoring, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, radical decentralization, random walk, recommendation engine, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robinhood: mobile stock trading app, Sam Altman, scientific management, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, smart grid, smart meter, Snapchat, statistical model, Steve Jobs, subprime mortgage crisis, Suez canal 1869, tacit knowledge, technoutopianism, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, universal basic income, vertical integration, William Langewiesche, Y Combinator

forecast depressing employment figures: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W. W. Norton, 2016); Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford, UK: Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013), http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of _Employment.pdf. advent of a “second machine age”: Brynjolfsson and McAfee, The Second Machine Age. “labor share” has declined considerably: Matthias Kehrig and Nicolas Vincent, “Growing Productivity Without Growing Wages: The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Aggregate Labor Share Decline,” CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6454, May 3, 2017, https://ssrn.com/abstract=2977787.

Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb

Abraham Wald, Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Air France Flight 447, Airbus A320, algorithmic bias, AlphaGo, Amazon Picking Challenge, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, basic income, Bayesian statistics, Black Swan, blockchain, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, carbon tax, Charles Babbage, classic study, collateralized debt obligation, computer age, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, data acquisition, data is the new oil, data science, deep learning, DeepMind, deskilling, disruptive innovation, driverless car, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, financial engineering, fulfillment center, general purpose technology, Geoffrey Hinton, Google Glasses, high net worth, ImageNet competition, income inequality, information retrieval, inventory management, invisible hand, Jeff Hawkins, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Lyft, Minecraft, Mitch Kapor, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Nate Silver, new economy, Nick Bostrom, On the Economy of Machinery and Manufactures, OpenAI, paperclip maximiser, pattern recognition, performance metric, profit maximization, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Solow, Salesforce, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Jurvetson, Steven Levy, strong AI, The Future of Employment, the long tail, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tim Cook: Apple, trolley problem, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, US Airways Flight 1549, Vernor Vinge, vertical integration, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, William Langewiesche, Y Combinator, zero-sum game

Jha and Topol, “Adapting to Artificial Intelligence”; S. Jha, “Will Computers Replace Radiologists?” Medscape 30 (December 2016), http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/863127#vp_1. 10. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, September 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 11. Truckmakers are already embedding convey capabilities in their newest vehicles. Volvo has deployed this in several tests, and Telsa’s new semi has these capabilities built in from the start.

Tomorrow's Capitalist: My Search for the Soul of Business by Alan Murray

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", "World Economic Forum" Davos, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, Alan Greenspan, Alvin Toffler, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, Black Lives Matter, blockchain, Boris Johnson, call centre, carbon footprint, commoditize, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate raider, corporate social responsibility, COVID-19, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, decarbonisation, digital divide, disinformation, disruptive innovation, do well by doing good, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Ferguson, Missouri, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, gentrification, George Floyd, global pandemic, Greta Thunberg, gun show loophole, impact investing, income inequality, intangible asset, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, knowledge worker, lockdown, London Whale, low interest rates, Marc Benioff, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, means of production, minimum wage unemployment, natural language processing, new economy, old-boy network, price mechanism, profit maximization, remote working, risk-adjusted returns, Ronald Reagan, Salesforce, scientific management, shareholder value, side hustle, Silicon Valley, social distancing, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, The Future of Employment, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, Washington Consensus, women in the workforce, work culture , working poor, zero-sum game

The new wave of technology, and particularly the specter of artificial intelligence, caused those fears to be raised anew. Mankind had successfully moved from farmer to factory worker, and from factory worker to knowledge worker. But if machines took over knowledge work, what then? In their important 2013 study, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford professors Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne began by noting that “concern over technological unemployment is hardly a recent phenomenon. Throughout history, the process of creative destruction, following technological inventions, has created enormous wealth, but also undesired disruptions.”10 They tell an amusing anecdote about William Lee, who invented the stocking frame knitting machine in 1589 as a replacement for hand knitting.

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“Making the Office a Place People Want to Go Because They Enjoy It.” CEO Daily/Fortune, May 6, 2021. 8. Dov Seidman. How: How Why We Do Anything Means Everything. New York: Wiley, 2011. 9. Alan Murray and David Meyer. “The Impact of Remote Work.” CEO Daily/Fortune, March 3, 2021. 10. Carl Benedikt and Michael A. Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” University of Oxford, September 2013. 11. Alan Murray and David Meyer. “The Great Digital Acceleration.” CEO Daily/Fortune, January 14, 2021. 12. Jeff Lawson. Ask Your Developer: How to Harness the Power of Software Developers and Win the 21st Century.

A Pelican Introduction: Basic Income by Guy Standing

"World Economic Forum" Davos, anti-fragile, bank run, basic income, behavioural economics, Bernie Sanders, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Black Lives Matter, Black Swan, Boris Johnson, British Empire, carbon tax, centre right, collective bargaining, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, declining real wages, degrowth, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial intermediation, full employment, future of work, gig economy, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, independent contractor, intangible asset, Jeremy Corbyn, job automation, job satisfaction, Joi Ito, labour market flexibility, land value tax, libertarian paternalism, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Marc Benioff, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, mass incarceration, moral hazard, Nelson Mandela, nudge theory, offshore financial centre, open economy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Paul Samuelson, plutocrats, precariat, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, rent control, rent-seeking, Salesforce, Sam Altman, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, The Future of Employment, universal basic income, Wolfgang Streeck, women in the workforce, working poor, Y Combinator, Zipcar

Stern (2016), Raising the Floor: How a Universal Basic Income Can Renew Our Economy and Rebuild the American Dream. New York: PublicAffairs. 16. Cited in N. Lee (2016), ‘How will you survive when the robots take your job?’, Engadget, 19 August. 17. C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne (2013), ‘The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization?’ Oxford: University of Oxford. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 18. M. Arntz, T. Gregory and U. Zierahn (2016), ‘The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis’. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 189. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 19.

Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Make a Difference by William MacAskill

barriers to entry, basic income, behavioural economics, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Cal Newport, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, Edward Jenner, effective altruism, en.wikipedia.org, end world poverty, experimental subject, follow your passion, food miles, immigration reform, income inequality, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, job automation, job satisfaction, Lean Startup, M-Pesa, mass immigration, meta-analysis, microcredit, Nate Silver, Peter Singer: altruism, power law, public intellectual, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, randomized controlled trial, self-driving car, Skype, Stanislav Petrov, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tyler Cowen, universal basic income, William MacAskill, women in the workforce

App Academy, a three-month intensive programming school: Marcus Wohlsen, “Tuition at Learn-to-Code Boot Camp is Free—Until You Get a Job,” Wired, March 15, 2013. whether a job will be around in the future: For an in-depth analysis, see Carl B. Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, September 17, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. David Brooks, writing in The New York Times: Brooks, David, “The Way to Produce a Person,” The New York Times, June 3, 2013. GiveDirectly has raised more than $20 million: “Financials,” GiveWell, https://www.givedirectly.org/financials.html.

The Internet Is Not the Answer by Andrew Keen

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Airbnb, AltaVista, Andrew Keen, AOL-Time Warner, augmented reality, Bay Area Rapid Transit, Berlin Wall, Big Tech, bitcoin, Black Swan, Bob Geldof, Boston Dynamics, Burning Man, Cass Sunstein, Charles Babbage, citizen journalism, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, collective bargaining, Colonization of Mars, computer age, connected car, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, data science, David Brooks, decentralized internet, DeepMind, digital capitalism, disintermediation, disruptive innovation, Donald Davies, Downton Abbey, Dr. Strangelove, driverless car, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, fail fast, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Gehry, Frederick Winslow Taylor, frictionless, fulfillment center, full employment, future of work, gentrification, gig economy, global village, Google bus, Google Glasses, Hacker Ethic, happiness index / gross national happiness, holacracy, income inequality, index card, informal economy, information trail, Innovator's Dilemma, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Perry Barlow, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, Kevin Roose, Kickstarter, Kiva Systems, Kodak vs Instagram, Lean Startup, libertarian paternalism, lifelogging, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, Mary Meeker, Metcalfe’s law, military-industrial complex, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, Neil Armstrong, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nonsequential writing, Norbert Wiener, Norman Mailer, Occupy movement, packet switching, PageRank, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Patri Friedman, Paul Graham, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer rental, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Potemkin village, power law, precariat, pre–internet, printed gun, Project Xanadu, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reality distortion field, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Robert Solow, San Francisco homelessness, scientific management, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Sheryl Sandberg, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley billionaire, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, smart cities, Snapchat, social web, South of Market, San Francisco, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, subscription business, TaskRabbit, tech bro, tech worker, TechCrunch disrupt, Ted Nelson, telemarketer, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, the long tail, the medium is the message, the new new thing, Thomas L Friedman, Travis Kalanick, Twitter Arab Spring, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber for X, uber lyft, urban planning, Vannevar Bush, warehouse robotics, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, work culture , working poor, Y Combinator

,” Guardian, December 17, 2013. 27 Lorraine Luk, “Foxconn Working with Google on Robotics,” Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2014. 28 Dan Rowinski, “Google’s Game of Moneyball in the Age of Artificial Intelligence,” ReadWrite.com, January 29, 2014. 29 Chunka Mui, “Google Car + Uber = Killer App,” Forbes, August 23, 2013. 30 395,000 at UPS (pressroom.ups.com/Fact+Sheets/UPS+Fact+Sheet) and 300,000 at FedEx (about.van.fedex.com/company-information). 31 Claire Cain Miller, “FedEx’s Price Rise Is a Blessing in Disguise for Amazon,” New York Times, May 9, 2014. 32 David Streitfeld, “Amazon Floats the Notion of Delivery Drones,” New York Times, December 1, 2013. 33 Charles Arthur, “Amazon Seeks US Permission to Test Prime Air Delivery Drones,” Guardian, July 11, 2014. 34 Katie Lobosco, “Army of Robots to Invade Amazon Warehouse,” CNNMoney, May 22, 2014. 35 George Packer, “Cheap Words,” New Yorker, February 17, 2014. 36 “John Naughton, Why Facebook and Google Are Buying into Drones,” Observer, April 19, 2014. 37 Reed Albergotti, “Zuckerberg, Musk Invest in Artificial-Intelligence Company,” Wall Street Journal, March 21, 2014. 38 Ibid. 39 Emily Young, “Davos 2014: Google’s Schmidt Warning on Jobs,” BBC, January 23, 2014. 40 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization?,” Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 41 Derek Thompson, “What Jobs Will the Robots Take?,” Atlantic, January 23, 2014. 42 Ibid. 43 Erik Larson, “Kodak Reorganization Approval Affirms Move from Cameras,” Bloomberg, August 21, 2013, bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-20/kodak-bankruptcy-reorganization-plan-approved-by-new-york.html. 44 “Kodak, Smaller and Redirected, Leaves Bankruptcy,” Associated Press, September 3, 2013. 45 Julie Creswell, “Kodak’s Fuzzy Future,” New York Times, May 3, 2013, dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/after-bankruptcy-a-leaner-kodak-faces-an-uphill-battle. 46 For a helpful timeline of Kodak’s 2013 emergence from bankruptcy, see “Key Events in the History of Eastman Kodak Company,” Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2013, nytimes.com/2013/09/04/business/kodak-smaller-and-redirected-leaves-bankruptcy.html?

How to Fix the Future: Staying Human in the Digital Age by Andrew Keen

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 23andMe, Ada Lovelace, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, AlphaGo, Andrew Keen, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, bitcoin, Black Swan, blockchain, Brewster Kahle, British Empire, carbon tax, Charles Babbage, computer age, Cornelius Vanderbilt, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, data is the new oil, death from overwork, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, Didi Chuxing, digital capitalism, digital map, digital rights, disinformation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, driverless car, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, fake news, Filter Bubble, Firefox, fulfillment center, full employment, future of work, gig economy, global village, income inequality, independent contractor, informal economy, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job automation, Joi Ito, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Marc Benioff, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, Mitch Kapor, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, OpenAI, Parag Khanna, peer-to-peer, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, post-truth, postindustrial economy, precariat, Ralph Nader, Ray Kurzweil, Recombinant DNA, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rutger Bregman, Salesforce, Sam Altman, Sand Hill Road, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley billionaire, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, Snapchat, social graph, software is eating the world, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, subscription business, surveillance capitalism, Susan Wojcicki, tech baron, tech billionaire, tech worker, technological determinism, technoutopianism, The Future of Employment, the High Line, the new new thing, Thomas L Friedman, Tim Cook: Apple, Travis Kalanick, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, Unsafe at Any Speed, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, Y Combinator, Yogi Berra, Zipcar

No, he acknowledges, the digital revolution hasn’t re-created the “satanic mills” of Northern England, with its armies of child laborers and appalling working conditions. Nor do the streets of New York City run anymore with the blood of dead animals. History never repeats itself. Not exactly, anyway. But the great transformation of the early twenty-first century is, nonetheless, equally challenging—particularly in terms of economic inequality and the future of employment. Karl Polanyi’s Two Nations are back. Today, however, these nations are being shaped by digital technology rather than by steam or electricity. Today, it’s smart machines—rather than Thomas More’s enclosed farmland or Marx and Engels’s mechanized factories—that are radically disrupting not only employment but the very nature of working life itself.

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Hobsbawm, The Age of Capital, 221. 17. Christine Meisner Rosen, “The Role of Pollution and Litigation in the Development of the U.S. Meatpacking Industry, 1865–1880,” Enterprise & Society, June 2007. 18. Ibid., 212. 19. Marx and Engels, The Communist Manifesto, 32–33. 20. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization,” Oxford Martin School, September 2013. 21. Steve Lohr, “Robots Will Take Jobs, but Not as Fast as Some Fear, New Report Says,” New York Times, January 12, 2017. 22. Friedrich Engels, The Condition of the Working-Class in England in 1844 (Swan Sonnenschein, 1892), 70.

Affluence Without Abundance: The Disappearing World of the Bushmen by James Suzman

access to a mobile phone, agricultural Revolution, Anthropocene, back-to-the-land, clean water, discovery of the americas, equal pay for equal work, European colonialism, full employment, invention of agriculture, invisible hand, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, means of production, Occupy movement, open borders, out of africa, post-work, quantitative easing, rewilding, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, trickle-down economics, unemployed young men, We are the 99%

Lee, “The Gods Must Be Crazy but the Producers Know Exactly What They Are Doing.” Southern Africa Report (June 1985): 19–20. Chapter 18: The Promised Land 1   Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013. http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. On Names and Clicks NAMES In spring of 1904 the German zoologist, linguist, anatomist, and philosopher Leonard Schultze was having the adventure of a lifetime. He had spent several months traveling to German South-West Africa (now Namibia).

Rule of the Robots: How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Everything by Martin Ford

AI winter, Airbnb, algorithmic bias, algorithmic trading, Alignment Problem, AlphaGo, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, artificial general intelligence, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, basic income, Big Tech, big-box store, call centre, carbon footprint, Chris Urmson, Claude Shannon: information theory, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer age, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, coronavirus, correlation does not imply causation, COVID-19, crowdsourcing, data is the new oil, data science, deep learning, deepfake, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, factory automation, fake news, fulfillment center, full employment, future of work, general purpose technology, Geoffrey Hinton, George Floyd, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, Googley, GPT-3, high-speed rail, hype cycle, ImageNet competition, income inequality, independent contractor, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Kiva Systems, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, Law of Accelerating Returns, license plate recognition, low interest rates, low-wage service sector, Lyft, machine readable, machine translation, Mark Zuckerberg, Mitch Kapor, natural language processing, Nick Bostrom, Northpointe / Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions, Ocado, OpenAI, opioid epidemic / opioid crisis, passive income, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, Phillips curve, post scarcity, public intellectual, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, remote working, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Rodney Brooks, Rubik’s Cube, Sam Altman, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social distancing, SoftBank, South of Market, San Francisco, special economic zone, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Stephen Hawking, superintelligent machines, TED Talk, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the scientific method, Turing machine, Turing test, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, very high income, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, Y Combinator

Ian Sample, “Google’s DeepMind predicts 3D shapes of proteins,” The Guardian, December 2, 2018, www.theguardian.com/science/2018/dec/02/google-deepminds-ai-program-alphafold-predicts-3d-shapes-of-proteins. 4. Lyxor Robotics and AI UCITS ETF, stock market ticker ROAI. 5. See, for example: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Working Paper, September 17, 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf, p. 38. 6. Matt McFarland, “Elon Musk: ‘With artificial intelligence we are summoning the demon,’” Washington Post, October 24, 2014, www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2014/10/24/elon-musk-with-artificial-intelligence-we-are-summoning-the-demon/. 7.

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Carol Graham, “Understanding the role of despair in America’s opioid crisis,” Brookings Institution, October 15, 2019, www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-can-policy-address-the-opioid-crisis-and-despair-in-america/. 4. See, for example: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?,” Oxford Martin School Programme on Technology and Employment, Working Paper, September 17, 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf, p. 38. 5. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Unemployment rate (UNRATE),” retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St.

Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow by Yuval Noah Harari

23andMe, Aaron Swartz, agricultural Revolution, algorithmic trading, Anne Wojcicki, Anthropocene, anti-communist, Anton Chekhov, autonomous vehicles, behavioural economics, Berlin Wall, call centre, Chekhov's gun, Chris Urmson, cognitive dissonance, Columbian Exchange, computer age, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, Deng Xiaoping, don't be evil, driverless car, drone strike, European colonialism, experimental subject, falling living standards, Flash crash, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, glass ceiling, global village, Great Leap Forward, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job automation, John Markoff, Kevin Kelly, lifelogging, low interest rates, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, Minecraft, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monkeys Reject Unequal Pay, mutually assured destruction, new economy, Nick Bostrom, pattern recognition, peak-end rule, Peter Thiel, placebo effect, Ray Kurzweil, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, stem cell, Steven Pinker, telemarketer, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, too big to fail, trade route, Turing machine, Turing test, ultimatum game, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero-sum game

Cope, Comes the Fiery Night: 2,000 Haiku by Man and Machine (Santa Cruz: Create Space, 2011). See also: Dormehl, The Formula, 174–80, 195–8, 200–2, 216–20; Steiner, Automate This, 75–89. 19. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’, 17 September 2013, accessed 12 August 2015, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 20. E. Brynjolfsson and A. McAffee, Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (Lexington: Digital Frontier Press, 2011). 21.

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In the twenty-first century we might witness the creation of a new massive class: people devoid of any economic, political or even artistic value, who contribute nothing to the prosperity, power and glory of society. In September 2013 two Oxford researchers, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, published ‘The Future of Employment’, in which they surveyed the likelihood of different professions being taken over by computer algorithms within the next twenty years. The algorithm developed by Frey and Osborne to do the calculations estimated that 47 per cent of US jobs are at high risk. For example, there is a 99 per cent probability that by 2033 human telemarketers and insurance underwriters will lose their jobs to algorithms.

Economic Dignity by Gene Sperling

active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, antiwork, autism spectrum disorder, autonomous vehicles, basic income, behavioural economics, benefit corporation, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, Cass Sunstein, collective bargaining, company town, corporate governance, cotton gin, David Brooks, desegregation, Detroit bankruptcy, disinformation, Donald Trump, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, driverless car, Elon Musk, employer provided health coverage, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, fulfillment center, full employment, gender pay gap, ghettoisation, gig economy, Gini coefficient, green new deal, guest worker program, Gunnar Myrdal, housing crisis, Ida Tarbell, income inequality, independent contractor, invisible hand, job automation, job satisfaction, labor-force participation, late fees, liberal world order, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, mass incarceration, mental accounting, meta-analysis, minimum wage unemployment, obamacare, offshore financial centre, open immigration, payday loans, Phillips curve, price discrimination, profit motive, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, Sheryl Sandberg, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, speech recognition, stock buybacks, subprime mortgage crisis, tech worker, TED Talk, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Toyota Production System, traffic fines, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, W. E. B. Du Bois, War on Poverty, warehouse robotics, working poor, young professional, zero-sum game

Aaron Smith and Monica Anderson, “Americans’ Attitudes toward a Future in Which Robots and Computers Can Do Many Human Jobs,” Pew Research Center, October 4, 2017, https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2017/10/04/americans-attitudes-toward-a-future-in-which-robots-and-computers-can-do-many-human-jobs/. 9. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Technological Forecasting & Social Change 114 (2017): 265, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 10. Mark Muro, Robert Maxim, and Jacob Whiton, Automation and Artificial Intelligence: How Machines Are Affecting People and Places (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2019), 5, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2019.01_BrookingsMetro_Automation-AI_Report_Muro-Maxim-Whiton-FINAL-version.pdf. 11.

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After months of intense negotiations led by David Rolf on the labor side, the group produced a recommendation that twenty-one of the twenty-four task force members endorsed. In 2014, the Seattle City Council unanimously approved a path to a $15 minimum wage.84 STRUCTURING SECTORAL BARGAINING Law professor Kate Andrias of the University of Michigan has noted that the future of employment law is one where the law is not just “a collection of individual rights bestowed by the state” but instead “it is a collective project to be jointly determined and enforced by workers, in conjunction with employers and the public.”85 Movements like the Fight for $15 and organizing by domestic workers have set a precedent for future negotiations.

Inventing the Future: Postcapitalism and a World Without Work by Nick Srnicek, Alex Williams

3D printing, additive manufacturing, air freight, algorithmic trading, anti-work, antiwork, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, basic income, battle of ideas, blockchain, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, business cycle, call centre, capital controls, capitalist realism, carbon footprint, carbon tax, Cass Sunstein, centre right, collective bargaining, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Graeber, decarbonisation, deep learning, deindustrialization, deskilling, Doha Development Round, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Evgeny Morozov, Ferguson, Missouri, financial independence, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, general purpose technology, housing crisis, housing justice, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, intermodal, Internet Archive, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kickstarter, Kiva Systems, late capitalism, liberation theology, Live Aid, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, market design, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, mass incarceration, means of production, megaproject, minimum wage unemployment, Modern Monetary Theory, Mont Pelerin Society, Murray Bookchin, neoliberal agenda, New Urbanism, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Overton Window, patent troll, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, Philip Mirowski, post scarcity, post-Fordism, post-work, postnationalism / post nation state, precariat, precautionary principle, price stability, profit motive, public intellectual, quantitative easing, reshoring, Richard Florida, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, Slavoj Žižek, social web, stakhanovite, Steve Jobs, surplus humans, synthetic biology, tacit knowledge, technological determinism, the built environment, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, the long tail, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, wages for housework, warehouse automation, We are all Keynesians now, We are the 99%, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population

The large number of relevant texts include: Ad Hoc Committee, ‘The Triple Revolution’, International Socialist Review 24: 3 (1964); Donald Michael, Cybernation: The Silent Conquest (Santa Barbara, CA: Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, 1962); Paul Mattick, ‘The Economics of Cybernation’, New Politics 1: 4 (1962); David Noble, Progress Without People: In Defense of Luddism (Toronto: Between the Lines, 1995); Jeremy Rifkin, The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era (New York: Putnam, 1997); Martin Ford, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future (US: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2009); Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W. W. Norton, 2014). 16.These estimates are for the US and European labour markets, though similar numbers undoubtedly hold globally and, as we argue later, may even be worse in developing economies. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? 2013, pdf available at oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk; Jeremy Bowles, ‘The Computerisation of European Jobs’, Bruegel (2014), at bruegel.org; Stuart Elliott, ‘Anticipating a Luddite Revival’, Issues in Science and Technology 30: 3 (2014). 17.Karl Marx, Capital: A Critique of Political Economy, Volume I, transl.

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This is just the way in which it unconsciously creates the material requirements of a higher mode of production.’ Karl Marx, Capital: A Critique of Political Economy, Volume III (London: Lawrence & Wishart, 1977), p. 259. 11.Marilyn Fischer, ‘Tensions from Technology in Marx’s Communist Society’, Journal of Value Inquiry 16: 2 (1982), pp. 125–6; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? 17 September 2013, pdf available at oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk, p. 8; Karl Marx, Capital: A Critique of Political Economy, Volume I, transl. Ben Fowkes (London: Penguin, 1990), Chapters 13–15. 12.Karl Marx, Grundrisse: Introduction to the Critique of Political Economy, transl.

The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity by Byron Reese

"World Economic Forum" Davos, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Apollo 11, artificial general intelligence, basic income, bread and circuses, Buckminster Fuller, business cycle, business process, Charles Babbage, Claude Shannon: information theory, clean water, cognitive bias, computer age, CRISPR, crowdsourcing, dark matter, DeepMind, Edward Jenner, Elon Musk, Eratosthenes, estate planning, financial independence, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, flying shuttle, full employment, Hans Moravec, Hans Rosling, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invention of movable type, invention of the printing press, invention of writing, Isaac Newton, Islamic Golden Age, James Hargreaves, job automation, Johannes Kepler, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, lateral thinking, life extension, Louis Pasteur, low interest rates, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, Mary Lou Jepsen, Moravec's paradox, Nick Bostrom, On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres, OpenAI, pattern recognition, profit motive, quantum entanglement, radical life extension, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Rodney Brooks, Sam Altman, self-driving car, seminal paper, Silicon Valley, Skype, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, technological singularity, TED Talk, telepresence, telepresence robot, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, Timothy McVeigh, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, Von Neumann architecture, Wall-E, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, working poor, Works Progress Administration, Y Combinator

Will new technology destroy the current jobs too quickly? A number of studies have tried to answer this question directly. One of the very finest and certainly the most quoted was published in 2013 by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, both of Oxford University. The report, titled The Future of Employment, is seventy-two pages long, but what has been referenced most frequently in the media is a single ten-word phrase: “about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk.” Hey, who needs more than that? It made for juicy and salacious headlines, to be sure. It seemed as if every news source screamed a variant of “Half of US Jobs Will Be Taken by Computers in Twenty Years.”

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The disconnect is clear: some of what a carpenter’s helper does will get automated, but the carpenter helper job won’t vanish; it will morph, as almost everyone else’s job will, from architect to zoologist. Sure, your iPhone can be a tour guide, but that won’t make tour guides vanish. Anyone who took the time to read past the introduction to The Future of Employment saw this. And to be clear, Frey and Osborne were very up-front. They stated, in scholar-speak, the following: We do not capture any within-occupation variation resulting from the computerisation of tasks that simply free-up time for human labour to perform other tasks. In response to the Frey and Osborne paper, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an intergovernmental economic organization made up of nations committed to free markets and democracy, released a report in 2016 that directly counters it.

No More Work: Why Full Employment Is a Bad Idea by James Livingston

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Bear Stearns, business cycle, collective bargaining, delayed gratification, do what you love, emotional labour, full employment, future of work, Herbert Marcuse, Internet of things, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, labor-force participation, late capitalism, Lewis Mumford, liberal capitalism, obamacare, post-work, Project for a New American Century, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, scientific management, Silicon Valley, surplus humans, TED Talk, The Future of Employment, Tyler Cowen, union organizing, warehouse automation, working poor

Hegel, my intellectual model and principal antagonist in this book, wrote to himself in an unpublished fragment: When a man has finally reached the point where he does not think he knows it better than others, that is when he becomes indifferent to what they have done badly and he is interested only in what they have done right. Damn straight. Notes Preface 1. James Livingston, Against Thrift: Why Consumer Culture Is Good for the Economy, the Environment, and Your Soul (New York: Basic Books, 2011). Introduction 1. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford: Oxford University Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, 2013). Erik Brynjolfssen and Andrew McAfee, Race against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (Lexington, Mass.: Digital Frontier Press, 2011). 2.

SUPERHUBS: How the Financial Elite and Their Networks Rule Our World by Sandra Navidi

"World Economic Forum" Davos, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Alan Greenspan, Anthropocene, assortative mating, bank run, barriers to entry, Bear Stearns, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Blythe Masters, Bretton Woods, butterfly effect, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, conceptual framework, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, crony capitalism, digital divide, diversification, Dunbar number, East Village, eat what you kill, Elon Musk, eurozone crisis, fake it until you make it, family office, financial engineering, financial repression, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, Glass-Steagall Act, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Google bus, Gordon Gekko, haute cuisine, high net worth, hindsight bias, income inequality, index fund, intangible asset, Jaron Lanier, Jim Simons, John Meriwether, junk bonds, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, Kevin Roose, knowledge economy, London Whale, Long Term Capital Management, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, McMansion, mittelstand, Money creation, money market fund, Myron Scholes, NetJets, Network effects, no-fly zone, offshore financial centre, old-boy network, Parag Khanna, Paul Samuelson, peer-to-peer, performance metric, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, power law, public intellectual, quantitative easing, Renaissance Technologies, rent-seeking, reserve currency, risk tolerance, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, rolodex, Satyajit Das, search costs, shareholder value, Sheryl Sandberg, Silicon Valley, social intelligence, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, subprime mortgage crisis, systems thinking, tech billionaire, The Future of Employment, The Predators' Ball, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, too big to fail, Tyler Cowen, women in the workforce, young professional

William Cohan, House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street (New York: Anchor, 2010), 142. 8. Marti, “EQ More Important than IQ When It Comes to Success.” 9. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” paper prepared for the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 10. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, “Perception Beats Performance,” press release, July 29, 2014, http://www.rolandberger.de/pressemitteilungen/Perception_beats_Performance.xhtml. 11.

The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class by Joel Kotkin

"RICO laws" OR "Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations", "World Economic Forum" Davos, Admiral Zheng, Alvin Toffler, Andy Kessler, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, bread and circuses, Brexit referendum, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon credits, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, clean water, company town, content marketing, Cornelius Vanderbilt, creative destruction, data science, deindustrialization, demographic transition, deplatforming, don't be evil, Donald Trump, driverless car, edge city, Elon Musk, European colonialism, Evgeny Morozov, financial independence, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Future Shock, gentrification, gig economy, Gini coefficient, Google bus, Great Leap Forward, green new deal, guest worker program, Hans Rosling, Herbert Marcuse, housing crisis, income inequality, informal economy, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, Jeremy Corbyn, job automation, job polarisation, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, land reform, liberal capitalism, life extension, low skilled workers, Lyft, Marc Benioff, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, megacity, Michael Shellenberger, Nate Silver, new economy, New Urbanism, Northpointe / Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions, Occupy movement, Parag Khanna, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, post-industrial society, post-work, postindustrial economy, postnationalism / post nation state, precariat, profit motive, public intellectual, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, Richard Florida, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Salesforce, Sam Altman, San Francisco homelessness, Satyajit Das, sharing economy, Sidewalk Labs, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Social Justice Warrior, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, superstar cities, technological determinism, Ted Nordhaus, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, trade route, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, unpaid internship, upwardly mobile, Virgin Galactic, We are the 99%, Wolfgang Streeck, women in the workforce, work culture , working-age population, Y Combinator

Atkinson, “Unfortunately, Technology Will Not Eliminate Many Jobs,” Innovation Files, August 7, 2017, https://itif.org/publications/2017/08/07/unfortunately-technology-will-not-eliminate-many-jobs; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, September 17, 2013, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf; Greg Ip, “Workers: Fear Not the Robot Apocalypse,” Wall Street Journal, September 5, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/workers-fear-not-the-robot-apocalypse-1504631505?shareToken=stabbe53f26f544566a3b04fc3361af876&reflink=article_email_share; Deirdre McCloskey, “The Myth of Technological Employment,” Reason, AugustSeptember 2017, http://reason.com/archives/2017/07/11/the-myth-of-technological-unem; Vanessa Fuhrmans, “How the Robot Revolution Could Create 21 Million Jobs,” Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-robot-revolution-could-create-21-million-jobs-1510758001; Oren Cass, “Is Technology Destroying the Labor Market?”

Ghost Work: How to Stop Silicon Valley From Building a New Global Underclass by Mary L. Gray, Siddharth Suri

"World Economic Forum" Davos, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, AlphaGo, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Apollo 13, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, benefit corporation, Big Tech, big-box store, bitcoin, blue-collar work, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cloud computing, cognitive load, collaborative consumption, collective bargaining, computer vision, corporate social responsibility, cotton gin, crowdsourcing, data is the new oil, data science, deep learning, DeepMind, deindustrialization, deskilling, digital divide, do well by doing good, do what you love, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, employer provided health coverage, en.wikipedia.org, equal pay for equal work, Erik Brynjolfsson, fake news, financial independence, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, fulfillment center, future of work, gig economy, glass ceiling, global supply chain, hiring and firing, ImageNet competition, independent contractor, industrial robot, informal economy, information asymmetry, Jeff Bezos, job automation, knowledge economy, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, machine translation, market friction, Mars Rover, natural language processing, new economy, operational security, passive income, pattern recognition, post-materialism, post-work, power law, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, scientific management, search costs, Second Machine Age, sentiment analysis, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, software as a service, speech recognition, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, TED Talk, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, two-sided market, union organizing, universal basic income, Vilfredo Pareto, Wayback Machine, women in the workforce, work culture , Works Progress Administration, Y Combinator, Yochai Benkler

Delivering services and jobs on demand could be an integral part of the future of work. It could also have unintended, potentially disastrous consequences if not designed and managed with care and attention to how it is restructuring the experience and meaning that people attach to their day jobs. Ghost Work and the Future of Employment The dismantling of employment is a deep, fundamental transformation of the nature of work. Traditional full-time employment is no longer the rule in the United States. It used to be that a worker could spend decades showing up day after day to the same office, building a career, with the expectation of getting steady pay, healthcare, sick leave, and retirement benefits in return.

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A crowded field of companies compete to sell information services that pair computers and smart devices with artificial intelligence. Companies like Catalant (formerly HourlyNerd), Popexpert, and Upwork use APIs to deliver the larger “macro-tasks” of knowledge work, on demand, to other businesses or individuals. The future of employment wrought by automation will undoubtedly be far more disjointed than traditional nine-to-five work. Some labor economists argue that a new reality of “fissured workplaces” is the ultimate result of turning long-term employment into a series of short-term contracts throughout the 1980s and ’90s.22 And yet this newly unpredictable reality hasn’t dissuaded millions of digital workers around the world from sitting down at their keyboards day and night and performing the countless behind-the-scenes tasks that make our apps seem smarter than they are.

Money: Vintage Minis by Yuval Noah Harari

23andMe, agricultural Revolution, algorithmic trading, AlphaGo, Anne Wojcicki, autonomous vehicles, British Empire, call centre, credit crunch, DeepMind, European colonialism, Flash crash, Ford Model T, greed is good, job automation, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, lifelogging, low interest rates, Nick Bostrom, pattern recognition, peak-end rule, Ponzi scheme, self-driving car, Suez canal 1869, telemarketer, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero-sum game

In the twenty-first century we might witness the creation of a massive new unworking class: people devoid of any economic, political or even artistic value, who contribute nothing to the prosperity, power and glory of society. This ‘useless class’ will not be merely unemployed – it will be unemployable. In September 2013 two Oxford researchers, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, published ‘The Future of Employment’, in which they surveyed the likelihood of different professions being taken over by computer algorithms within the next twenty years. The algorithm developed by Frey and Osborne to do the calculations estimated that 47 per cent of US jobs are at high risk. For example, there is a 99 per cent probability that by 2033 human telemarketers and insurance underwriters will lose their jobs to algorithms.

Augmented: Life in the Smart Lane by Brett King

23andMe, 3D printing, additive manufacturing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Web Services, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Apollo 11, Apollo Guidance Computer, Apple II, artificial general intelligence, asset allocation, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, Bletchley Park, blockchain, Boston Dynamics, business intelligence, business process, call centre, chief data officer, Chris Urmson, Clayton Christensen, clean water, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, congestion charging, CRISPR, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, data science, deep learning, DeepMind, deskilling, different worldview, disruptive innovation, distributed generation, distributed ledger, double helix, drone strike, electricity market, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fellow of the Royal Society, fiat currency, financial exclusion, Flash crash, Flynn Effect, Ford Model T, future of work, gamification, Geoffrey Hinton, gig economy, gigafactory, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Hans Lippershey, high-speed rail, Hyperloop, income inequality, industrial robot, information asymmetry, Internet of things, invention of movable type, invention of the printing press, invention of the telephone, invention of the wheel, James Dyson, Jeff Bezos, job automation, job-hopping, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Kim Stanley Robinson, Kiva Systems, Kodak vs Instagram, Leonard Kleinrock, lifelogging, low earth orbit, low skilled workers, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, Metcalfe’s law, Minecraft, mobile money, money market fund, more computing power than Apollo, Neal Stephenson, Neil Armstrong, Network effects, new economy, Nick Bostrom, obamacare, Occupy movement, Oculus Rift, off grid, off-the-grid, packet switching, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, Ray Kurzweil, retail therapy, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Salesforce, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, Snapchat, Snow Crash, social graph, software as a service, speech recognition, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, strong AI, synthetic biology, systems thinking, TaskRabbit, technological singularity, TED Talk, telemarketer, telepresence, telepresence robot, Tesla Model S, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, Travis Kalanick, TSMC, Turing complete, Turing test, Twitter Arab Spring, uber lyft, undersea cable, urban sprawl, V2 rocket, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, white picket fence, WikiLeaks, yottabyte

Those with a negative view of the disruptive nature of AI argue that there will be a net loss of employment for the first time in 250 years as a result of technological advancement. There’s only so many AI or robot ethicists and robot psychologists that we’ll need in the Augmented Age. A study released by Oxford Martin School’s Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology entitled “The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”7 evaluated 702 jobs on a typical online career network, classifying them based on how likely they are to be computerised. The skills and level of education required for each job were taken into consideration too. These features were weighted according to how automatable they were, and according to the engineering obstacles currently preventing automation or computerisation.

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In 1950, the bank’s checking accounts, known as current accounts in other parts of the world, were growing at the rate of 23,000 new accounts per month, and before introducing ERMA, its banks were forced to close their doors at 2 p.m. to cope with manual processing. 6 Image credit: Day in the Glass video by Corning 7 The research paper is available at http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 8 These are jobs with 0.98/0.99 probability of disruption through technology. Based on a ±2 per cent confidence interval, this basically is a statistical certainty. 9 “AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs,” Pew Research Center, 6 August 2014. 10 http://cleantechnica.com/2014/04/24/us-energy-capacity-grew-an-astounding-418-from-2010-2014/ 11 http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2014/05/29/90551/rooftop-solar-adoption-in-emerging-residential-markets/ 12 A prosumer is both a producer and consumer. 13 Google Green 14 See GreenTechMedia.com analysis, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Utility-Scale-Solar-Reaches-Cost-Parity-With-Natural-Gas-Throughout-America. 15 Alissa Walker, “Tesla’s Gigafactory isn’t Big Enough to Make Its Preordered Batteries,” Gizmodo, 8 May 2015. 16 NBAD, University of Cambridge and PwC, “Financing the Future of Energy,” PV Magazine, 2 March 2015. 17 “Enter the entrepreneurs,” Mintel, 19 November 2014. 18 Cornerstone OnDemand Survey, November 2014. 19 “Generation Y and the Gigging Economy,” Elance, January 2014. 20 Check out https://workfrom.co/. 21 For more on work patterns throughout history, go to https://eh.net/encyclopedia/hours-of-work-in-u-s-history/. 22 “Solving the Mystery of Gen Y Job Hoppers,” Business News Daily, 22 August 2014. 23 Pew Research 2014 24 For more on Jordan Greenhall, go to http://reinventors.net/content/jordan-greenhall/. 25 Statistics taken from http://blog.autismspeaks.org/2010/10/22/got-questions-answers-to-your-questions-from-the-autism-speaks%E2%80%99-science-staff-2/. 26 See www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2013/01/average_age_of_members_of_u_s_congress_are_our_senators_and_representatives.html. 27 “The 113th congress is historically good at not passing bills,” Washington Post, 9 July 2014.

The Industries of the Future by Alec Ross

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 23andMe, 3D printing, Airbnb, Alan Greenspan, algorithmic bias, algorithmic trading, AltaVista, Anne Wojcicki, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, bioinformatics, bitcoin, Black Lives Matter, blockchain, Boston Dynamics, Brian Krebs, British Empire, business intelligence, call centre, carbon footprint, clean tech, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, connected car, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, cryptocurrency, data science, David Brooks, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, disintermediation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, distributed ledger, driverless car, Edward Glaeser, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Evgeny Morozov, fiat currency, future of work, General Motors Futurama, global supply chain, Google X / Alphabet X, Gregor Mendel, industrial robot, information security, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Joi Ito, Kevin Roose, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, lifelogging, litecoin, low interest rates, M-Pesa, machine translation, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Max Levchin, Mikhail Gorbachev, military-industrial complex, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Nelson Mandela, new economy, off-the-grid, offshore financial centre, open economy, Parag Khanna, paypal mafia, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, precision agriculture, pre–internet, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rubik’s Cube, Satoshi Nakamoto, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, social graph, software as a service, special economic zone, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, technoutopianism, TED Talk, The Future of Employment, Travis Kalanick, underbanked, unit 8200, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, work culture , Y Combinator, young professional

During the recent recession: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Race against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution Is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (Lexington, MA: Digital Frontier, 2011). Two Oxford University professors: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, 2013, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. It measures the shape and size of the customer’s head: Ibid. By way of illustration: “Reinventing Low Wage Work: The Restaurant Workforce in the United States,” Aspen Institute, October 30, 2014, http://www.aspenwsi.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/The-Restaurant-Workforce-in-the-United-States.pdf.

A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond by Daniel Susskind

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, AlphaGo, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Big Tech, blue-collar work, Boston Dynamics, British Empire, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cloud computing, computer age, computer vision, computerized trading, creative destruction, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deep learning, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, demographic transition, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, driverless car, drone strike, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, fake news, financial innovation, flying shuttle, Ford Model T, fulfillment center, future of work, gig economy, Gini coefficient, Google Glasses, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hans Moravec, income inequality, income per capita, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacques de Vaucanson, James Hargreaves, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Roose, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, Larry Ellison, low skilled workers, lump of labour, machine translation, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, Metcalfe’s law, natural language processing, Neil Armstrong, Network effects, Nick Bostrom, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, pink-collar, precariat, purchasing power parity, Ray Kurzweil, ride hailing / ride sharing, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social intelligence, software is eating the world, sovereign wealth fund, spinning jenny, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, strong AI, tacit knowledge, technological solutionism, TED Talk, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the scientific method, The Theory of the Leisure Class by Thorstein Veblen, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, Travis Kalanick, Turing test, Two Sigma, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, upwardly mobile, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, wealth creators, working poor, working-age population, Y Combinator

The origins of this quotation are contested. The earliest recorded version of it comes from the Nobel Prize–winning economist Paul Samuelson, but Samuelson himself later attributed it to Keynes. See http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/07/22/keynes-change-mind/. 29.  Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (January 2017): 254–80. 30.  McKinsey Global Institute, “A Future That Works: Automation, Employment, and Productivity,” January 2017. 31.  James Bessen, an economist at Boston University, was perhaps the first to note this. 32.  

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Freud, Sigmund. Civilization and Its Discontents. New York: W. W. Norton, 2010. Freund, Caroline, and Sarah Oliver. “The Origins of the Superrich: The Billionaire Characteristics Database.” Peterson Institute for International Economics 16, no. 1 (2016). Frey, Carl, and Michael Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (January 2017): 254–80. Frey, Carl, Michael Osborne, Craig Holmes, et al. “Technology at Work v2.0: The Future Is Not What It Used to Be.” Oxford Martin School and Citi (2016). Friedman, Benjamin M.

Genius Makers: The Mavericks Who Brought A. I. To Google, Facebook, and the World by Cade Metz

AI winter, air gap, Airbnb, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, AlphaGo, Amazon Robotics, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, Big Tech, British Empire, Cambridge Analytica, carbon-based life, cloud computing, company town, computer age, computer vision, deep learning, deepfake, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, digital map, Donald Trump, driverless car, drone strike, Elon Musk, fake news, Fellow of the Royal Society, Frank Gehry, game design, Geoffrey Hinton, Google Earth, Google X / Alphabet X, Googley, Internet Archive, Isaac Newton, Jeff Hawkins, Jeffrey Epstein, job automation, John Markoff, life extension, machine translation, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, Menlo Park, move 37, move fast and break things, Mustafa Suleyman, new economy, Nick Bostrom, nuclear winter, OpenAI, PageRank, PalmPilot, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, paypal mafia, Peter Thiel, profit motive, Richard Feynman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, Sam Altman, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley billionaire, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, speech recognition, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, tech worker, telemarketer, The Future of Employment, Turing test, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics, Y Combinator

This system decided when to turn on: Ibid. The Google data centers were so large: Ibid. automated technologies would soon cut a giant swath through the job market: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Working paper, Oxford Martin School, September 2013, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. “You have been Schmidhubered”: Ashlee Vance, “This Man Is the Godfather the AI Community Wants to Forget,” Bloomberg Businessweek, May 15, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-15/google-amazon-and-facebook-owe-j-rgen-schmidhuber-a-fortune.

The Blockchain Alternative: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Theory by Kariappa Bheemaiah

"World Economic Forum" Davos, accounting loophole / creative accounting, Ada Lovelace, Adam Curtis, Airbnb, Alan Greenspan, algorithmic trading, asset allocation, autonomous vehicles, balance sheet recession, bank run, banks create money, Basel III, basic income, behavioural economics, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, bitcoin, Bletchley Park, blockchain, Bretton Woods, Brexit referendum, business cycle, business process, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, cashless society, cellular automata, central bank independence, Charles Babbage, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, complexity theory, constrained optimization, corporate governance, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cross-border payments, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, data science, David Graeber, deep learning, deskilling, Diane Coyle, discrete time, disruptive innovation, distributed ledger, diversification, double entry bookkeeping, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, fiat currency, financial engineering, financial innovation, financial intermediation, Flash crash, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, George Akerlof, Glass-Steagall Act, Higgs boson, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, interest rate derivative, inventory management, invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, junk bonds, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, large denomination, Large Hadron Collider, Lewis Mumford, liquidity trap, London Whale, low interest rates, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, machine readable, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, market fundamentalism, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Michael Milken, MITM: man-in-the-middle, Money creation, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage debt, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Nikolai Kondratiev, offshore financial centre, packet switching, Pareto efficiency, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, Ponzi scheme, power law, precariat, pre–internet, price mechanism, price stability, private sector deleveraging, profit maximization, QR code, quantitative easing, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Ray Kurzweil, Real Time Gross Settlement, rent control, rent-seeking, robo advisor, Satoshi Nakamoto, Satyajit Das, Savings and loan crisis, savings glut, seigniorage, seminal paper, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart contracts, software as a service, software is eating the world, speech recognition, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stuart Kauffman, supply-chain management, technology bubble, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Great Moderation, the market place, The Nature of the Firm, the payments system, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, trade liberalization, transaction costs, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, Vitalik Buterin, Von Neumann architecture, Washington Consensus

Sidebar 3-1: How Technology is Replacing Skills and Tasks Source: “Inequality, Technology and Job Polarization of the Youth Labor Market in Europe” (Bheemaiah & Smith, 2015). The growth of information and communication technologies (ICTs) has had broad encompassing effects on various sectors of employment, education, and societal structures. Understanding the dynamics of technology’s impact on the future of employment thus requires a holistic analysis of the range of tasks currently being automated in various sectors of employment. This in turn provides us with a heuristic connection between education, employment, income levels, and ICT. The impact technology, and more specifically ICT technology , has had on inequality and changing the structural foundations of the labor market, has been a central theme for researchers for quite some time (see, Acemoglu, 2010; Autor et al., 2003; Michaels et al., 2010).

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Mazzucato, Rethinking Capitalism: Economics and Policy for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth (pp. 47–65). Wiley. Nir Jaimovich, H. E. (2012). The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). OECD. (2010). SMEs, Entrepreneurship and Innovation . OECD. Osborne, C. B. (2013). The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Oxford: Oxford Martin School. Paine, T. (1795). Agrarian Justice . Retrieved from Geolibertarian: http://geolib.com/essays/paine.tom/agjst.html Paul Beaudry, D. A. (2013). The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper 18901.

Them and Us: How Immigrants and Locals Can Thrive Together by Philippe Legrain

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, AlphaGo, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, Black Lives Matter, Boris Johnson, Brexit referendum, British Empire, call centre, centre right, Chelsea Manning, clean tech, coronavirus, corporate social responsibility, COVID-19, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, data science, David Attenborough, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, demographic dividend, digital divide, discovery of DNA, Donald Trump, double helix, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, future of work, illegal immigration, immigration reform, informal economy, Jane Jacobs, job automation, Jony Ive, labour market flexibility, lockdown, low cost airline, low interest rates, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Wolf, Mary Meeker, mass immigration, moral hazard, Mustafa Suleyman, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, open borders, open immigration, postnationalism / post nation state, purchasing power parity, remote working, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rishi Sunak, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, SoftBank, Steve Jobs, tech worker, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, Tim Cook: Apple, Tyler Cowen, urban sprawl, WeWork, Winter of Discontent, women in the workforce, working-age population

, Center for Global Development Working Paper 359, March 2014. https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/does-development-reduce-migration_final_0.pdf 3 Gordon Hanson, Chen Liu and Craig McIntosh, ‘The Rise and Fall of US Low-Skilled Immigration’, NBER Working Paper 23753, August 2017. https://www.nber.org/papers/w23753 4 Gordon Hanson and Craig McIntosh, ‘Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run’, NBER Working Paper 22622, September 2016. https://www.nber.org/papers/w22622 5 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?’, 17 September 2013. https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf 6 ‘Will a robot really take your job?’, The Economist, 27 June 2019. https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/27/will-a-robot-really-take-your-job 7 Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory and Ulrich Zierahn, ‘The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis’, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper 189, May 2016. https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en 8 For instance, consultants at McKinsey estimate that AI will both displace and create around 300,000 jobs a year in the 2020s in Europe’s ‘digital front-runners’. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/europe/shaping%20the%20future%20of%20work%20in%20europes%20nine%20digital%20front%20runner%20countries/shaping-the-future-of-work-in-europes-digital-front-runners.ashx 9 Richard Baldwin, The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization, Harvard, 2016. 10 See kwiziq.com 11 Richard Baldwin, The Great Convergence. 12 UNHCR, ‘Global Trends 2019’. https://www.unhcr.org/globaltrends2019/ 13 Cristina Cattaneo and Giovanni Peri, ‘The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures’, NBER Working Paper 21622, October 2015. https://www.nber.org/papers/w21622.pdf 14 Jonathan Blitzer, ‘How Climate Change is Fuelling the US Border Crisis’, New Yorker, 3 April 2019. https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/how-climate-change-is-fuelling-the-us-border-crisis 15 UK Government Office for Science, ‘Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change’, 2011. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/287722/11-1115-migration-and-global-environmental-change-summary.pdf 16 Guy J.

Surviving AI: The Promise and Peril of Artificial Intelligence by Calum Chace

3D printing, Ada Lovelace, AI winter, Airbnb, Alvin Toffler, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, barriers to entry, basic income, bitcoin, Bletchley Park, blockchain, brain emulation, Buckminster Fuller, Charles Babbage, cloud computing, computer age, computer vision, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, deep learning, DeepMind, dematerialisation, Demis Hassabis, discovery of the americas, disintermediation, don't be evil, driverless car, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Flash crash, friendly AI, Geoffrey Hinton, Google Glasses, hedonic treadmill, hype cycle, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of agriculture, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, life extension, low skilled workers, machine translation, Mahatma Gandhi, means of production, mutually assured destruction, Neil Armstrong, Nicholas Carr, Nick Bostrom, paperclip maximiser, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer model, Peter Thiel, radical life extension, Ray Kurzweil, Robert Solow, Rodney Brooks, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Skype, South Sea Bubble, speech recognition, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, strong AI, technological singularity, TED Talk, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, theory of mind, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, Vernor Vinge, wage slave, Wall-E, zero-sum game

v=Skfw282fJak (13) The Economist, December 4, 2003 (14) Douglas Adams, The Salmon of Doubt (15) http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/ (16) http://lazooz.org/ (17) https://www.hrw.org/reports/2012/11/19/losing-humanity (18) http://www.ifr.org/industrial-robots/statistics/ (19) “Economic possibilities for our grandchildren”: http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf (20) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HW5Fvk8FNOQ (21) http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf (22) http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2981946/Self-driving-cars-30-cities-2017-Pilot-projects-aims-mass-roll-driverless-vehicles-safe-they.html (23) http://www.alltrucking.com/faq/truck-drivers-in-the-usa/ (24) http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/bus-drivers.htm (25) http://www.bls.gov/ooh/transportation-and-material-moving/taxi-drivers-and-chauffeurs.htm (26) http://www.cristo-barrios.com/discografia/iamus-2/?

Warnings by Richard A. Clarke

"Hurricane Katrina" Superdome, active measures, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anti-communist, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, Bear Stearns, behavioural economics, Bernie Madoff, Black Monday: stock market crash in 1987, carbon tax, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, CRISPR, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, deep learning, DeepMind, discovery of penicillin, double helix, Elon Musk, failed state, financial thriller, fixed income, Flash crash, forensic accounting, friendly AI, Hacker News, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge worker, Maui Hawaii, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, mouse model, Nate Silver, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Nick Bostrom, nuclear winter, OpenAI, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, Ponzi scheme, Ray Kurzweil, Recombinant DNA, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart grid, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, subprime mortgage crisis, tacit knowledge, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Vernor Vinge, WarGames: Global Thermonuclear War, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Y2K

Quora, https://www.quora.com/Is-AI-an-existential-threat-to-humanity/answer/Andrew-Ng (accessed Oct. 8, 2016). 24. The study looks at jobs at risk from weak AI and robotics. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osbourne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Sept. 17, 2013, Oxford Martin School, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf (accessed Oct. 8, 2016). 25. Nicholas Carr, The Glass Cage: Automation and Us (New York: Norton, 2014), reviewed in Sean Braswell, “All Rise for Chief Justice Robot!” Ozy.com, www.ozy.com/immodest-proposal/all-rise-for-chief-justice-robot/41131 (accessed Oct. 8, 2016). 26.

Selfie: How We Became So Self-Obsessed and What It's Doing to Us by Will Storr

Abraham Maslow, Adam Curtis, Alan Greenspan, Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, bitcoin, classic study, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, gamification, gig economy, greed is good, intentional community, invisible hand, job automation, John Markoff, Kevin Roose, Kickstarter, Lewis Mumford, longitudinal study, low interest rates, Lyft, Menlo Park, meta-analysis, military-industrial complex, Mont Pelerin Society, mortgage debt, Mother of all demos, Nixon shock, Peter Thiel, prosperity theology / prosperity gospel / gospel of success, QWERTY keyboard, Rainbow Mansion, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Sheryl Sandberg, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Steve Bannon, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, synthetic biology, tech bro, tech worker, The Future of Employment, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Tim Cook: Apple, Travis Kalanick, twin studies, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, War on Poverty, We are as Gods, Whole Earth Catalog

There are 1.7 million truck drivers in the US: ‘Robots could replace 1.7 million American truckers in the next decade’, Natalie Kitroeff, Los Angeles Times, 25 September 2016. by 2033, nearly half of all US jobs: ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?’, Carl Benedikt Frey et al., 17 September 2013. Available at: www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/­downloads/academic/­The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. polarization between left and right has been increasing inexorably: The Politics of Resentment, Katherine J. Cramer (University of Chicago Press, 2016), p. 2. One investigation found that in its final three months: ‘Viral Fake Election News Outperformed Real News On Facebook In Final Months Of The US Election’, Craig Silverman, BuzzFeed, 16 November 2016.

The Lonely Century: How Isolation Imperils Our Future by Noreena Hertz

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", Airbnb, airport security, algorithmic bias, Asian financial crisis, autism spectrum disorder, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, big-box store, Broken windows theory, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, car-free, Cass Sunstein, centre right, conceptual framework, Copley Medal, coronavirus, correlation does not imply causation, COVID-19, dark matter, deindustrialization, Diane Coyle, digital divide, disinformation, Donald Trump, driverless car, emotional labour, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Evgeny Morozov, fake news, Fellow of the Royal Society, future of work, gender pay gap, gentrification, gig economy, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Greta Thunberg, happiness index / gross national happiness, housing crisis, illegal immigration, independent contractor, industrial robot, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Jeremy Corbyn, Jessica Bruder, job automation, job satisfaction, karōshi / gwarosa / guolaosi, Kevin Roose, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, lockdown, longitudinal study, low interest rates, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, meta-analysis, move fast and break things, Network effects, new economy, Pepto Bismol, QWERTY keyboard, Ray Oldenburg, remote working, rent control, RFID, robo advisor, Ronald Reagan, Salesforce, San Francisco homelessness, Second Machine Age, Shoshana Zuboff, side hustle, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, social distancing, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, SoftBank, Steve Jobs, surveillance capitalism, TaskRabbit, tech worker, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Great Good Place, the long tail, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, TikTok, Tim Cook: Apple, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, urban planning, Wall-E, warehouse automation, warehouse robotics, WeWork, work culture , working poor, workplace surveillance

Arielle Pardes, ‘Instacart Workers Are Still Waiting for Those Safety Supplies’, Wired, 18 April 2020, https://www.wired.com/story/instacart-delivery-workers-still-waiting-safety-kits/. 74 Mark Muro, Robert Maxim, and Jacob Whiton, ‘Automation and Artificial Intelligence: How machines are affecting people and places’, Brookings, 24 January 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/research/automation-and-artificial-intelligence-how-machines-affect-people-and-places/; see also Tom Simonite, ‘Robots Will Take Jobs From Men, the Young, and Minorities’, Wired, 24 January 2019, https://www.wired.com/story/robots-will-take-jobs-from-men-young-minorities/. 75 Cate Cadell, ‘At Alibaba’s futuristic hotel, robots deliver towels and mix cocktails’, Reuters, 22 January 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-alibaba-hotels-robots/at-alibabas-futuristic-hotel-robots-deliver-towels-and-mix-cocktails-idUSKCN1PG21W. 76 The precise figure is 47%. Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (2017): 254–280, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. 77 Carl Benedikt Frey, ‘Covid-19 will only increase automation anxiety’, Financial Times, 21 April 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/817228a2-82e1-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf. 78 PA Media, ‘Bosses speed up automation as virus keeps workers home’, Guardian, 30 March 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/bosses-speed-up-automation-as-virus-keeps-workers-home; Peter Bluestone, Emmanuel Chike and Sally Wallace, ‘The Future of Industry and Employment: COVID-19 Effects Exacerbate the March of Artificial Intelligence’, The Center for State and Local Finance, 28 April 2020, https://cslf.gsu.edu/download/covid-19-ai/?

The Gig Economy: A Critical Introduction by Jamie Woodcock, Mark Graham

Airbnb, algorithmic management, Amazon Mechanical Turk, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, Californian Ideology, call centre, collective bargaining, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, data science, David Graeber, deindustrialization, Didi Chuxing, digital divide, disintermediation, emotional labour, en.wikipedia.org, full employment, future of work, gamification, gender pay gap, gig economy, global value chain, Greyball, independent contractor, informal economy, information asymmetry, inventory management, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, knowledge economy, low interest rates, Lyft, mass immigration, means of production, Network effects, new economy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, planetary scale, precariat, rent-seeking, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, scientific management, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, transaction costs, Travis Kalanick, two-sided market, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, union organizing, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional

Available at: https://www.wired.com/2015/10/why-homejoy-failed/ Fear, C. (2018) ‘Without our brain and muscle not a single wheel can turn’: The IWW Couriers Network. Notes from Below, 3. Available at: https://notesfrombelow.org/article/without-our-brain-and-muscle Fredman, S. (2003) Women at work: The broken promise of flexicurity. Industrial Law Journal, 33(4): 229–319. Frey, C.B. and Osborne, M.A. (2017) The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114: 254–80. Fudge, J. (2017) The future of the standard employment relationship: Labour law, new institutional economics and old power resource theory. Journal of Industrial Relations, 59(3): 374–92.

Futureproof: 9 Rules for Humans in the Age of Automation by Kevin Roose

"World Economic Forum" Davos, adjacent possible, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, algorithmic bias, algorithmic management, Alvin Toffler, Amazon Web Services, Atul Gawande, augmented reality, automated trading system, basic income, Bayesian statistics, Big Tech, big-box store, Black Lives Matter, business process, call centre, choice architecture, coronavirus, COVID-19, data science, deep learning, deepfake, DeepMind, disinformation, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, factory automation, fake news, fault tolerance, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Freestyle chess, future of work, Future Shock, Geoffrey Hinton, George Floyd, gig economy, Google Hangouts, GPT-3, hiring and firing, hustle culture, hype cycle, income inequality, industrial robot, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Kevin Roose, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, lockdown, Lyft, mandatory minimum, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, meta-analysis, Narrative Science, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Northpointe / Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions, off-the-grid, OpenAI, pattern recognition, planetary scale, plutocrats, Productivity paradox, QAnon, recommendation engine, remote working, risk tolerance, robotic process automation, scientific management, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social distancing, Steve Jobs, Stuart Kauffman, surveillance capitalism, tech worker, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, TikTok, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, work culture

In 1928, The New York Times ran an article Evans Clark, “March of the Machine Makes Idle Hands,” New York Times, February 26, 1928. Marvin Minsky, the MIT researcher Brad Darrach, “Meet Shaky, the First Electronic Person,” Life, November 20, 1970. Oxford University study Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, September 17, 2013. By 2017, three in four American adults believed Gallup and Northeastern University, “Optimism and Anxiety: Views on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Higher Education’s Response,” 2017.

The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by Shoshana Zuboff

"World Economic Forum" Davos, algorithmic bias, Amazon Web Services, Andrew Keen, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Bartolomé de las Casas, behavioural economics, Berlin Wall, Big Tech, bitcoin, blockchain, blue-collar work, book scanning, Broken windows theory, California gold rush, call centre, Cambridge Analytica, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, citizen journalism, Citizen Lab, classic study, cloud computing, collective bargaining, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, connected car, context collapse, corporate governance, corporate personhood, creative destruction, cryptocurrency, data science, deep learning, digital capitalism, disinformation, dogs of the Dow, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Dr. Strangelove, driverless car, Easter island, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Evgeny Morozov, facts on the ground, fake news, Ford Model T, Ford paid five dollars a day, future of work, game design, gamification, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Herman Kahn, hive mind, Ian Bogost, impulse control, income inequality, information security, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Jean Tirole, job automation, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Kevin Roose, knowledge economy, Lewis Mumford, linked data, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, means of production, multi-sided market, Naomi Klein, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, Occupy movement, off grid, off-the-grid, PageRank, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, pattern recognition, Paul Buchheit, performance metric, Philip Mirowski, precision agriculture, price mechanism, profit maximization, profit motive, public intellectual, recommendation engine, refrigerator car, RFID, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Bork, Robert Mercer, Salesforce, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, Sheryl Sandberg, Shoshana Zuboff, Sidewalk Labs, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, slashdot, smart cities, Snapchat, social contagion, social distancing, social graph, social web, software as a service, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Bannon, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, structural adjustment programs, surveillance capitalism, technological determinism, TED Talk, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, two-sided market, union organizing, vertical integration, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, winner-take-all economy, Wolfgang Streeck, work culture , Yochai Benkler, you are the product

Bulletin of EATCS 3, no. 120 (2016), http://bulletin.eatcs.org/index.php/beatcs/article/view/467; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (September 17, 2013): 254–80; Seth G. Benzell et al., “Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement” (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015), http://www.nber.org/papers/w20941; Carl Benedikt Frey, “Doing Capitalism in the Digital Age,” Financial Times, October 1, 2014, https://www.ft.com/content/293780fc-4245-11e4-9818-00144feabdc0. 14. Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment”; Martin Krzywdzinski, “Automation, Skill Requirements and Labour-Use Strategies: High-Wage and Low-Wage Approaches to High-Tech Manufacturing in the Automotive Industry,” New Technology, Work and Employment 32, no. 3 (2017): 247–67, https://doi.org/10.1111/ntwe.12100; Frey, “Doing Capitalism”; William Lazonick, “Labor in the Twenty-First Century: The Top 0.1% and the Disappearing Middle-Class” (working paper, Institute for New Economic Thinking, February 2015), https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/research-papers/labor-in-the-twenty-first-century-the-top-0-1-and-the-disappearing-middle-class; Dirk Antonczyk, Thomas DeLeire, and Bernd Fitzenberger, “Polarization and Rising Wage Inequality: Comparing the U.S. and Germany” (IZA Discussion Paper, Institute for the Study of Labor, March 2010), https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp4842.html; Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W.

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Frey and Osborne’s much-cited 2013 study of technological unemployment sounded the same theme: “Moreover, a company called SmartAction now provides call computerisation solutions that use ML technology and advanced speech recognition to improve upon conventional interactive voice response systems, realising cost savings of 60 to 80 percent over an outsourced call center consisting of human labour.” See Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (2013): 254–80. See also a follow-up study: Philipp Brandes, Roger Wattenhofer, and Stefan Schmid, “Which Tasks of a Job Are Susceptible to Computerization?” Bulletin of EATCS 3, no. 120 (2016), http://bulletin.eatcs.org/index.php/beatcs/article/view/467. 15.

The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind by Raghuram Rajan

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, air traffic controllers' union, airline deregulation, Albert Einstein, Andrei Shleifer, banking crisis, barriers to entry, basic income, battle of ideas, Bernie Sanders, blockchain, borderless world, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Build a better mousetrap, business cycle, business process, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carl Icahn, central bank independence, computer vision, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate raider, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation / currency intervention, data acquisition, David Brooks, Deng Xiaoping, desegregation, deskilling, disinformation, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, driverless car, Edward Glaeser, facts on the ground, financial innovation, financial repression, full employment, future of work, Glass-Steagall Act, global supply chain, Great Leap Forward, high net worth, household responsibility system, housing crisis, Ida Tarbell, illegal immigration, income inequality, industrial cluster, intangible asset, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, Les Trente Glorieuses, low interest rates, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, means of production, Money creation, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, opioid epidemic / opioid crisis, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, race to the bottom, Richard Thaler, Robert Bork, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Sam Peltzman, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, social distancing, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, SoftBank, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steve Jobs, superstar cities, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, trade route, transaction costs, transfer pricing, Travis Kalanick, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, Walter Mischel, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working-age population, World Values Survey, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game

Garry Kasparov, “The Chess Master and the Computer,” The New York Review of Books, February 11, 2010, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2010/02/11/the-chess-master-and-the-computer/; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization?,” Oxford Martin School (September 2013), https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf. CHAPTER 11: REINVIGORATING THE THIRD PILLAR 1. Peter Coy, “Keeping Up With the Joneses: Neighbors of Lottery Winners Are More Likely to Go Bankrupt,” Bloomberg Businessweek, May 29, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-29/keeping-up-with-the-joneses-neighbors-of-lottery-winners-are-more-likely-to-go-bankrupt. 2.

The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World by Ruchir Sharma

"World Economic Forum" Davos, Asian financial crisis, backtesting, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, business climate, business cycle, business process, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, centre right, colonial rule, commodity super cycle, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, currency peg, dark matter, debt deflation, deglobalization, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, driverless car, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, eurozone crisis, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, financial engineering, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Freestyle chess, Gini coefficient, global macro, Goodhart's law, guns versus butter model, hiring and firing, hype cycle, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, inflation targeting, Internet of things, Japanese asset price bubble, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, junk bonds, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, Larry Ellison, lateral thinking, liberal capitalism, low interest rates, Malacca Straits, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, Mary Meeker, mass immigration, megacity, megaproject, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, middle-income trap, military-industrial complex, mittelstand, moral hazard, New Economic Geography, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open immigration, pattern recognition, Paul Samuelson, Peter Thiel, pets.com, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price stability, Productivity paradox, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, secular stagnation, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Kuznets, smart cities, Snapchat, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, tacit knowledge, tech billionaire, The Future of Employment, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Malthus, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, trade route, tulip mania, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, unorthodox policies, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, work culture , working-age population

Hokenson, “Retiring the Current Model of Retirement,” Hokenson Research, March 2004. 5 Andrew Mason, “Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developing and Developed Countries,” United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Social and Economic Implications of Changing Population Age Structures, August 31–September 2, 2005. 6 “Women, Business, and the Law 2014,” World Bank, 2013. 7 Peter Hessler, “Learning to Speak Lingerie,” New Yorker, August 10, 2015. 8 “Fair Play: More Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation,” International Monetary Fund, 2015. 9 Jim Yong Kim, “CNBC Excerpts: CNBC’s Sara Eisen Speaks with World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Alley’ Today,” transcript of interview by Sara Eisen, CNBC, October 1 2015. 10 Caglar Ozden and Mathis Warner, “Immigrants versus Natives? Displacement and Job Creation,” World Bank, 2014. 11 BCA Research, “The End of Europe’s Welfare State,” Weekly Report, June 26, 2015. 12 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” Oxford University Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, September 17, 2013. 13 David Rotman, “How Technology Is Destroying Jobs,” MIT Technology Review, June 12, 2013. 14 John Markoff, “The Next Wave,” Edge, July 16, 2015. Chapter 2: The Circle of Life 1 Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World and the Rise of the Rest (New York: Norton, 2008). 2 Jonathan Wheatley, “Brazil’s Leader Blames White People for Crisis,” Financial Times, March 27, 2009. 3 Global Emerging Markets Equity Team, “Tales from the Emerging World: The Myths of Middle-Class Revolution,” Morgan Stanley Investment Management, July 16, 2013. 4 “The Quest for Prosperity,” Economist, May 15, 2007. 5 Saeed Naqvi, “A Little Left of Self Interest,” The Friday Times, June 26, 2015. 6 William Easterly, The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor (New York: Basic Books, 2014).

…

“Tracing Out the U-Shape Relationship Between Famale Labor Force Participation Rate and Economic Development for Pakistan.” International Journal of Social Economics 36, nos. 1–2 (2009): 182–98. Fernandes, Sharon. “India, Second Biggest Loser of Rich Citizens.” Times of India, July 14, 2015. Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Michael Osborne. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Compensation.” Oxford Martin School, September 17, 2013). Fulwood, Alice, and Edward Teather. “Malaysia by the Numbers.” UBS Research, October 2015. Garland, Kris. “Demographics Matter.” Strategas, September 22, 2015. “Gary Marcus on the Future of Artificial Intelligence and the Brain.”

Work in the Future The Automation Revolution-Palgrave MacMillan (2019) by Robert Skidelsky Nan Craig

3D printing, Airbnb, algorithmic trading, AlphaGo, Alvin Toffler, Amazon Web Services, anti-work, antiwork, artificial general intelligence, asset light, autonomous vehicles, basic income, behavioural economics, business cycle, cloud computing, collective bargaining, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, data is the new oil, data science, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deep learning, DeepMind, deindustrialization, Demis Hassabis, deskilling, disintermediation, do what you love, Donald Trump, driverless car, Erik Brynjolfsson, fake news, feminist movement, Ford Model T, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Future Shock, general purpose technology, gig economy, global supply chain, income inequality, independent contractor, informal economy, Internet of things, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, job automation, job polarisation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, Loebner Prize, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, moral panic, Network effects, new economy, Nick Bostrom, off grid, pattern recognition, post-work, Ronald Coase, scientific management, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, SoftBank, Steve Jobs, strong AI, tacit knowledge, technological determinism, technoutopianism, TED Talk, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, the market place, The Nature of the Firm, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, Turing test, Uber for X, uber lyft, universal basic income, wealth creators, working poor

The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Frey, C. B., Berger, T., & Chen, C. (2018). Political Machinery: Did Robots Swing the 2016 US Presidential Election? Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(3), 418–442. Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254–280. Gramlich, J. (2017). Most Americans Would Favor Policies to Limit Job and Wage Losses Caused by Automation. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/10/09/most-americanswould-favor-policies-to-limit-job-and-wage-lossescaused-by-automation/ Part IV Possibilities and Limitations for AI: What Can’t Machines Do?

Leadership by Algorithm: Who Leads and Who Follows in the AI Era? by David de Cremer

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", algorithmic bias, algorithmic management, AlphaGo, bitcoin, blockchain, business climate, business process, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, corporate governance, data is not the new oil, data science, deep learning, DeepMind, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, fake news, future of work, job automation, Kevin Kelly, Mark Zuckerberg, meta-analysis, Norbert Wiener, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, race to the bottom, robotic process automation, Salesforce, scientific management, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, Stephen Hawking, The Future of Employment, Turing test, work culture , workplace surveillance , zero-sum game

Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 1 (3), 333-342. 29 Schweitzer, M.E., & Cachon, G.P. (2000). ‘Decision bias in the newsvendor problem with a known demand distribution: Experimental evidence.’ Management Science, 46(3), 404-420. 30 Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). ‘The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280. 31 Accenture (2017). ‘The promise of Artificial Intelligence: Redefining management in the workforce of the future.’ Retrieved from: https://www.accenture.com/no-en/insight-promise-artificial-intelligence 32 PwC (2019).

Give People Money by Annie Lowrey

Abraham Maslow, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Airbnb, airport security, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, Black Lives Matter, carbon tax, clean water, collective bargaining, computer age, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, deindustrialization, desegregation, Donald Trump, driverless car, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, ending welfare as we know it, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, full employment, gender pay gap, gentrification, gig economy, Google Earth, Home mortgage interest deduction, income inequality, indoor plumbing, information asymmetry, Jaron Lanier, jitney, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, labor-force participation, late capitalism, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, mass incarceration, McMansion, Menlo Park, mobile money, Modern Monetary Theory, mortgage tax deduction, multilevel marketing, new economy, obamacare, opioid epidemic / opioid crisis, Overton Window, Peter Thiel, post scarcity, post-work, Potemkin village, precariat, public intellectual, randomized controlled trial, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Bork, Robert Solow, Ronald Reagan, Rutger Bregman, Sam Altman, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, tech billionaire, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, theory of mind, total factor productivity, Turing test, two tier labour market, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, uranium enrichment, War on Poverty, warehouse robotics, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, women in the workforce, working poor, World Values Survey, Y Combinator

with India contemplating one: Rachel Roberts, “Indian Politicians Consider Universal Basic Income Following Successful Trials,” Independent, July 28, 2017. adopted in California: Owen Poindexter, telephone interview by author, Sept. 27, 2017. exceeded activists’ expectations: Enno Schmidt, telephone interview by author, May 17, 2016. half of American jobs: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, “The Future of Employment” (working paper, the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, University of Oxford, Sept. 17, 2013). truck drivers: Natalie Kitroeff, “Robots Could Replace 1.7 Million American Truckers in the Next Decade,” Los Angeles Times, Sept. 25, 2016. warehouse box packers: Natalie Kitroeff, “Warehouses Promised Lots of Jobs, but Robot Workforce Slows Hiring,” Los Angeles Times, Dec. 4, 2016.

Humans as a Service: The Promise and Perils of Work in the Gig Economy by Jeremias Prassl

3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, algorithmic management, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrei Shleifer, asset light, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, call centre, cashless society, Clayton Christensen, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, death from overwork, Didi Chuxing, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, driverless car, Erik Brynjolfsson, full employment, future of work, George Akerlof, gig economy, global supply chain, Greyball, hiring and firing, income inequality, independent contractor, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Roose, Kickstarter, low skilled workers, Lyft, machine readable, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, market friction, means of production, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, obamacare, pattern recognition, platform as a service, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, regulatory arbitrage, remote working, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Rosa Parks, scientific management, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley billionaire, Silicon Valley ideology, Simon Singh, software as a service, Steve Jobs, TaskRabbit, TechCrunch disrupt, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, transaction costs, transportation-network company, Travis Kalanick, two tier labour market, two-sided market, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, union organizing, warehouse automation, work culture , working-age population

jfklibrary.org/Research/Research-Aids/Ready-Reference/Press-Conferences/ News-Conference-24.aspx, archived at https://perma.cc/LDS6-Y8X7 4. John Maynard Keynes, ‘Economic possibilities for our grandchildren’, in Essays in Persuasion (Palgrave Macmillan 2010), 325. 5. Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford Martin School 2013). 6. Ibid., 38, 42. 7. Eric Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (W. W. Norton & Co. 2014), 10. 8. Cynthia Estlund, ‘What should we do after work?

Cogs and Monsters: What Economics Is, and What It Should Be by Diane Coyle

3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Al Roth, Alan Greenspan, algorithmic management, Amazon Web Services, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, barriers to entry, behavioural economics, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, biodiversity loss, bitcoin, Black Lives Matter, Boston Dynamics, Bretton Woods, Brexit referendum, business cycle, call centre, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, choice architecture, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, cloud computing, complexity theory, computer age, conceptual framework, congestion charging, constrained optimization, coronavirus, COVID-19, creative destruction, credit crunch, data science, DeepMind, deglobalization, deindustrialization, Diane Coyle, discounted cash flows, disintermediation, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, endogenous growth, endowment effect, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Evgeny Morozov, experimental subject, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial intermediation, Flash crash, framing effect, general purpose technology, George Akerlof, global supply chain, Goodhart's law, Google bus, haute cuisine, High speed trading, hockey-stick growth, Ida Tarbell, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jaron Lanier, Jean Tirole, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Les Trente Glorieuses, libertarian paternalism, linear programming, lockdown, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, low earth orbit, lump of labour, machine readable, market bubble, market design, Menlo Park, millennium bug, Modern Monetary Theory, Mont Pelerin Society, multi-sided market, Myron Scholes, Nash equilibrium, Nate Silver, Network effects, Occupy movement, Pareto efficiency, payday loans, payment for order flow, Phillips curve, post-industrial society, price mechanism, Productivity paradox, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, rent control, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Solow, Robinhood: mobile stock trading app, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, San Francisco homelessness, savings glut, school vouchers, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, software is eating the world, spectrum auction, statistical model, Steven Pinker, tacit knowledge, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The Great Moderation, the map is not the territory, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, the strength of weak ties, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, total factor productivity, transaction costs, Uber for X, urban planning, winner-take-all economy, Winter of Discontent, women in the workforce, Y2K

Fourcade, Marion, Etienne Ollion, and Yann Algan, 2015, ‘The Superiority of Economists’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29 (1), 89–114. Frank, Robert H., Thomas Gilovich, and Dennis T. Regan, 1993, ‘Does Studying Economics Inhibit Cooperation?’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7 (2), 159–171. Frey, C. B., and M. A. Osborne, 2017, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254–280. Friedman, M., 1966, ‘The Methodology of Positive Economics’, in Essays in Positive Economics, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 3–16. Fryer, R., S. Levitt, J. List, and S. Sadoff, 2012, ‘Enhancing the Efficacy of Teacher Incentives through Loss Aversion: A Field Experiment’, NBER Working Paper 18237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

$2.00 A Day: Living on Almost Nothing in America by Kathryn Edin, H. Luke Shaefer

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, business cycle, clean water, ending welfare as we know it, future of work, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, impulse control, indoor plumbing, informal economy, low-wage service sector, machine readable, mass incarceration, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, The Future of Employment, War on Poverty, working poor, Works Progress Administration

Summers, “Lawrence H. Summers on the Economic Challenge of the Future: Jobs,” Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2014, http://www.wsj.com/articles/lawrence-h-summers-on-the-economic-challenge-of-the-future-jobs-1404762501. [>] all occupational categories: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (paper prepared for the Machines and Employment workshop, Oxford University Engineering Sciences Department and Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, Oxford, UK, September 17, 2013), http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314. [>] their wages alone: Halpern-Meekin et al., It’s Not Like I’m Poor. [>] a meaningful degree: Congressional Budget Office, “The Effects of a Minimum-Wage Increase on Employment and Family Income” (Washington, DC, February 2014), https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/44995-MinimumWage.pdf. [>] boost economic growth: David Cooper, “Raising the Federal Minimum Wage to $10.10 Would Lift Wages for Millions and Provide a Modest Economic Boost” (EPI Briefing Paper No. 371, Economic Policy Institute, Washington, DC, December 19, 2013), http://s1.epi.org/files/2014/EPI-1010-minimum-wage.pdf. [>] part-time workers: Center for Law and Social Policy, Retail Action Project, and Women Employed, “Tackling Unstable and Unpredictable Work Schedules.” [>] revise its procedures: Jodi Kantor, “Starbucks to Revise Policies to End Irregular Schedules for Its 130,000 Baristas,” New York Times, August 14, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/15/us/starbucks-to-revise-work-scheduling-policies.html?

Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus: How Growth Became the Enemy of Prosperity by Douglas Rushkoff

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, Alan Greenspan, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrew Keen, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, benefit corporation, bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, business process, buy and hold, buy low sell high, California gold rush, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, centralized clearinghouse, citizen journalism, clean water, cloud computing, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, colonial exploitation, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate personhood, corporate raider, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, data science, deep learning, disintermediation, diversified portfolio, Dutch auction, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, fiat currency, Firefox, Flash crash, full employment, future of work, gamification, Garrett Hardin, gentrification, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global village, Google bus, Howard Rheingold, IBM and the Holocaust, impulse control, income inequality, independent contractor, index fund, iterative process, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, Large Hadron Collider, loss aversion, low interest rates, Lyft, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, medical bankruptcy, minimum viable product, Mitch Kapor, Naomi Klein, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Oculus Rift, passive investing, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, power law, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, recommendation engine, reserve currency, RFID, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Russell Brand, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social graph, software patent, Steve Jobs, stock buybacks, TaskRabbit, the Cathedral and the Bazaar, The Future of Employment, the long tail, trade route, Tragedy of the Commons, transportation-network company, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, unpaid internship, Vitalik Buterin, warehouse robotics, Wayback Machine, Y Combinator, young professional, zero-sum game, Zipcar

The six volumes it published were largely ignored, but they did serve as the basis for much of Daniel Bell’s highly regarded work in the 1970s about what he called the “post-industrial economy.” His main recommendation was to make our technological progress less “random” and “destructive” by matching it with upgraded political institutions.44 Today, it’s MIT’s Brynjolfsson and McAfee who appear to be leading the conversation about technology’s impact on the future of employment—what they call the “great decoupling.” Their extensive research shows, beyond reasonable doubt, that technological progress eliminates jobs and leaves average workers worse off than they were before. “It’s the great paradox of our era,” Brynjolfsson explains. “Productivity is at record levels, innovation has never been faster, and yet at the same time, we have a falling median income and we have fewer jobs.

Peers Inc: How People and Platforms Are Inventing the Collaborative Economy and Reinventing Capitalism by Robin Chase

Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Andy Kessler, Anthropocene, Apollo 13, banking crisis, barriers to entry, basic income, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), bike sharing, bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, business climate, call centre, car-free, carbon tax, circular economy, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, commoditize, congestion charging, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, data science, deal flow, decarbonisation, different worldview, do-ocracy, don't be evil, Donald Shoup, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Eyjafjallajökull, Ferguson, Missouri, Firefox, Free Software Foundation, frictionless, Gini coefficient, GPS: selective availability, high-speed rail, hive mind, income inequality, independent contractor, index fund, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, Kinder Surprise, language acquisition, Larry Ellison, Lean Startup, low interest rates, Lyft, machine readable, means of production, megacity, Minecraft, minimum viable product, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, off-the-grid, openstreetmap, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, peer-to-peer model, Post-Keynesian economics, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Salesforce, Satoshi Nakamoto, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, TaskRabbit, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, the long tail, The Nature of the Firm, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, Turing test, turn-by-turn navigation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, vertical integration, Zipcar

In the next chapter I want to delve deeper and look into what happens when we combine the economics of excess capacity with the discipline of the platforms and the diversity of large numbers of peers. The Peers Inc collaboration points to a viable, scalable, humane way forward in a world overshadowed by anxiety about the future of employment, the scarcity of resources, the rapid pace of change, and the future of capitalism on a finite planet. It offers up discrete and unique roles for governments, companies, institutions, entrepreneurs, and individuals. When this is done well, seemingly magical and unexpected powers result. We stand at the edge of a waterfall, with the momentum of 7 billion lives, two hundred governments, and hundreds of thousands of institutions pressing us forward.

The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, and Status in the Twenty-First Century by Ryan Avent

3D printing, Airbnb, American energy revolution, assortative mating, autonomous vehicles, Bakken shale, barriers to entry, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, BRICs, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collective bargaining, computer age, creative destruction, currency risk, dark matter, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, disruptive innovation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, driverless car, Edward Glaeser, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, falling living standards, financial engineering, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, Ford paid five dollars a day, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, general purpose technology, gig economy, global supply chain, global value chain, heat death of the universe, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, independent contractor, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, intangible asset, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, inventory management, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, Jeremy Corbyn, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, knowledge economy, low interest rates, low skilled workers, lump of labour, Lyft, machine translation, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, mass immigration, means of production, new economy, performance metric, pets.com, post-work, price mechanism, quantitative easing, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reshoring, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Robert Solow, Ronald Coase, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, software is eating the world, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, tacit knowledge, TaskRabbit, tech billionaire, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transaction costs, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, very high income, warehouse robotics, working-age population

Hall, Jonathan, and Krueger, Alan, ‘An Analysis of the Labor Market for Uber’s Driver-Partners in the United States’, Working Paper, Princeton University, Industrial Relations Section, January 2015.   7. Autor, David, ‘The “Task Approach” to Labour Markets: An Overview’, Journal for Labor Market Research, January 2013; Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Osborne, Michael, ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?’, 17 September 2013.   8. US Census Bureau, Educational Attainment, CPS Historical Time Series Tables.   9. OECD, Population with Tertiary Education. 10. Abramovitz, Moses, and David, Paul, ‘Convergence and Deferred Catch-up: Productivity Leadership and the Waning of American Exceptionalism’, from Landau, Ralph, Taylor, Timothy, and Wright, Gavin, eds., The Mosaic of Economic Growth (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995). 11. 

The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity by Lynda Gratton, Andrew Scott

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, Airbnb, asset light, assortative mating, behavioural economics, carbon footprint, carbon tax, classic study, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, deep learning, delayed gratification, disruptive innovation, diversification, Downton Abbey, driverless car, Erik Brynjolfsson, falling living standards, financial engineering, financial independence, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Google Glasses, indoor plumbing, information retrieval, intangible asset, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Lyft, Nelson Mandela, Network effects, New Economic Geography, old age dependency ratio, pattern recognition, pension reform, Peter Thiel, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, risk free rate, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, Sheryl Sandberg, side project, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, tacit knowledge, The Future of Employment, uber lyft, warehouse robotics, women in the workforce, young professional

., ‘The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (4) (2003): 1279–334. 13Beaudry, P., Green, D. A. and Sand, B.M., ‘The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks’, NBER Working Paper 18901 (2013). 14Frey, C.B. and Osbourne, M.A., ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization?’ (Oxford University mimeo, 2013). 15Polanyi, M., Personal Knowledge. Towards a Post Critical Philosophy (Routledge, 1958/98). 16Moravec, H., ‘When Will Computer Hardware Match the Human Brain?’, Journal of Evolution and Technology 1 (1) (1998).

AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order by Kai-Fu Lee

"World Economic Forum" Davos, AI winter, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, algorithmic bias, algorithmic trading, Alignment Problem, AlphaGo, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, basic income, bike sharing, business cycle, Cambridge Analytica, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, corporate social responsibility, cotton gin, creative destruction, crony capitalism, data science, deep learning, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, Didi Chuxing, Donald Trump, driverless car, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, fake news, full employment, future of work, general purpose technology, Geoffrey Hinton, gig economy, Google Chrome, Hans Moravec, happiness index / gross national happiness, high-speed rail, if you build it, they will come, ImageNet competition, impact investing, income inequality, informal economy, Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, Jeff Bezos, job automation, John Markoff, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Lean Startup, low skilled workers, Lyft, machine translation, mandatory minimum, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, minimum viable product, natural language processing, Neil Armstrong, new economy, Nick Bostrom, OpenAI, pattern recognition, pirate software, profit maximization, QR code, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Robert Mercer, Rodney Brooks, Rubik’s Cube, Sam Altman, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, SoftBank, Solyndra, special economic zone, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, strong AI, TED Talk, The Future of Employment, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, urban planning, vertical integration, Vision Fund, warehouse robotics, Y Combinator

$148 billion invested: Dana Olsen, “A Record-Setting Year: 2017 VC Activity in 3 Charts,” Pitchbook, December 15, 2017, https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/a-record-setting-year-2017-vc-activity-in-3-charts. leapt to $15.2 billion: “Top AI Trends to Watch in 2018,” CB Insights, February 2018, https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/artificial-intelligence-trends-2018/. a dire prediction: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Automation,” Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, September 17, 2013, https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf. just 9 percent of jobs: Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory, and Ulrich Zierahn, “The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis,” OECD Social, Employment, and Migration Working Papers, no. 189, May 14, 2016, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en. 38 percent of jobs: Richard Berriman and John Hawksworth, “Will Robots Steal Our Jobs?

Heart of the Machine: Our Future in a World of Artificial Emotional Intelligence by Richard Yonck

3D printing, AI winter, AlphaGo, Apollo 11, artificial general intelligence, Asperger Syndrome, augmented reality, autism spectrum disorder, backpropagation, Berlin Wall, Bletchley Park, brain emulation, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, computer age, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, crowdsourcing, deep learning, DeepMind, Dunning–Kruger effect, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Fairchild Semiconductor, friendly AI, Geoffrey Hinton, ghettoisation, industrial robot, Internet of things, invention of writing, Jacques de Vaucanson, job automation, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Loebner Prize, Menlo Park, meta-analysis, Metcalfe’s law, mirror neurons, Neil Armstrong, neurotypical, Nick Bostrom, Oculus Rift, old age dependency ratio, pattern recognition, planned obsolescence, pneumatic tube, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Skype, social intelligence, SoftBank, software as a service, SQL injection, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, TED Talk, telepresence, telepresence robot, The future is already here, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, theory of mind, Turing test, twin studies, Two Sigma, undersea cable, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Review, working-age population, zero day

“Addictive behaviors and addiction-prone personality traits: Associations with a dopamine multilocus genetic profile.” Addictive Behaviors, 38, 2306–2312. 2013. 26. Wright, J., Hensley, C. “From Animal Cruelty to Serial Murder: Applying the Graduation Hypothesis.” International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 47 (1): 71–88. February 1, 2003. 27. Frey, C.B., Osborne, M.A. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?” Oxford Martin School, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, University of Oxford. 2013; Rutkin, A.H. “Report Suggests Nearly Half of U.S. Jobs Are Vulnerable to Computerization.” Technology Review. September 12, 2013. 28. Stromberg, J.

The Corruption of Capitalism: Why Rentiers Thrive and Work Does Not Pay by Guy Standing

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 3D printing, Airbnb, Alan Greenspan, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, anti-fragile, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, basic income, Ben Bernanke: helicopter money, Bernie Sanders, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Big Tech, bilateral investment treaty, Bonfire of the Vanities, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, business cycle, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carried interest, cashless society, central bank independence, centre right, Clayton Christensen, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, commons-based peer production, credit crunch, crony capitalism, cross-border payments, crowdsourcing, debt deflation, declining real wages, deindustrialization, disruptive innovation, Doha Development Round, Donald Trump, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, ending welfare as we know it, eurozone crisis, Evgeny Morozov, falling living standards, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Firefox, first-past-the-post, future of work, Garrett Hardin, gentrification, gig economy, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, Greenspan put, Growth in a Time of Debt, housing crisis, income inequality, independent contractor, information retrieval, intangible asset, invention of the steam engine, investor state dispute settlement, it's over 9,000, James Watt: steam engine, Jeremy Corbyn, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, labour market flexibility, light touch regulation, Long Term Capital Management, low interest rates, lump of labour, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market clearing, Martin Wolf, means of production, megaproject, mini-job, Money creation, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, Neil Kinnock, non-tariff barriers, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, nudge unit, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open economy, openstreetmap, patent troll, payday loans, peer-to-peer lending, Phillips curve, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, precariat, quantitative easing, remote working, rent control, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Right to Buy, Robert Gordon, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Simon Kuznets, SoftBank, sovereign wealth fund, Stephen Hawking, Steve Ballmer, structural adjustment programs, TaskRabbit, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, the payments system, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, Tragedy of the Commons, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, Y Combinator, zero-sum game, Zipcar

Snyder, ‘Robots and computers could take half our jobs within the next 20 years’, Economic Collapse, 30 September 2013; R. B. Freeman, ‘Who owns the robots rules the world’, IZA World of Labor, 2014. Paul Mason, for example, stated bluntly that IT ‘has reduced the need for work’. 19 C. B. Frey and M. A. Osborne, The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? (Oxford: University of Oxford, 17 September 2013), mimeo. 20 L. Elliott, ‘Robots threaten 15m UK jobs, says Bank of England’s chief economist’, The Guardian, 12 November 2015. 21 J. Bessen, ‘The automation paradox’, The Atlantic, 19 January 2016. 22 The growing merger of physical, digital and biological technologies has been dubbed the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Radical Markets: Uprooting Capitalism and Democracy for a Just Society by Eric Posner, E. Weyl

3D printing, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, anti-communist, augmented reality, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, Branko Milanovic, business process, buy and hold, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, collective bargaining, commoditize, congestion pricing, Corn Laws, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, data science, deep learning, DeepMind, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, endowment effect, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, feminist movement, financial deregulation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, gamification, Garrett Hardin, George Akerlof, global macro, global supply chain, guest worker program, hydraulic fracturing, Hyperloop, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, income per capita, index fund, informal economy, information asymmetry, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jean Tirole, Jeremy Corbyn, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, Landlord’s Game, liberal capitalism, low skilled workers, Lyft, market bubble, market design, market friction, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, negative equity, Network effects, obamacare, offshore financial centre, open borders, Pareto efficiency, passive investing, patent troll, Paul Samuelson, performance metric, plutocrats, pre–internet, radical decentralization, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Rory Sutherland, search costs, Second Machine Age, second-price auction, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, special economic zone, spectrum auction, speech recognition, statistical model, stem cell, telepresence, Thales and the olive presses, Thales of Miletus, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Theory of the Leisure Class by Thorstein Veblen, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, Tyler Cowen, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, urban planning, Vanguard fund, vertical integration, women in the workforce, Zipcar