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Walkable City: How Downtown Can Save America, One Step at a Time by Jeff Speck
A Pattern Language, active transport: walking or cycling, car-free, carbon footprint, congestion charging, David Brooks, edge city, Edward Glaeser, Enrique Peñalosa, food miles, Frank Gehry, Guggenheim Bilbao, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, intermodal, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, peak oil, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Florida, skinny streets, smart cities, starchitect, Stewart Brand, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, transit-oriented development, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight, white picket fence, young professional, zero-sum game, Zipcar
Despite all the countervailing pressures, it is fully within the capabilities of the typical American city to alter its relationship to the automobile in subtle ways that can have a tremendous impact on walkability—to welcome cars, but on its own terms. First and foremost, this means making all transportation decisions in light of the phenomenon of induced demand. BECAUSE I MUST: INDUCED DEMAND About once a month, I give a talk somewhere in America, typically to a chamber of commerce, a planning association, or a bunch of people in a bookstore. Topics and approaches can vary, but I have one hard-and-fast rule: every lecture, no matter what, I will talk at length about induced demand. I do this because induced demand is the great intellectual black hole in city planning, the one professional certainty that everyone thoughtful seems to acknowledge, yet almost no one is willing to act upon. It’s as if, despite all of our advances, this one (unfortunately central) aspect of how we make our cities has been entrusted to the Flat Earth Society.
Because most of the public complaints one hears in cities are about traffic, it stands to reason that any good public servant would work to reduce traffic congestion. This would be acceptable if efforts to reduce traffic congestion didn’t wreck cities and perhaps also if they worked. But they don’t work, because of induced demand. Most city engineers don’t understand induced demand. They might say that they do, but, if so, they don’t act upon that understanding. I say this because it would seem that almost no traffic engineers in America possess the necessary combination of insight and political will that would allow them to take the induced demand discussion to its logical conclusion, which is this: Stop doing traffic studies. Stop trying to improve flow. Stop spending people’s tax dollars giving them false hope that you can cure congestion, while mutilating their cities in the process.
Second: Traffic studies are typically performed by firms that do traffic engineering. This makes perfect sense—who else would do them? But guess who gets the big contract for the roadway expansion that the study deems necessary? As long as engineers are in charge of traffic studies, they will predict the need for engineering. Finally, and most essentially: The main problem with traffic studies is that they almost never consider the phenomenon of induced demand. Induced demand is the name for what happens when increasing the supply of roadways lowers the time cost of driving, causing more people to drive and obliterating any reductions in congestion. We talked about this phenomenon at length in Suburban Nation in 2000, and the seminal text, The Elephant in the Bedroom: Automobile Dependence and Denial, was published by Hart and Spivak in 1993. For this reason, I will not take the time here to address its causes, which are multifold and fascinating.
The End of Traffic and the Future of Transport: Second Edition by David Levinson, Kevin Krizek
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Bay Area Rapid Transit, big-box store, Chris Urmson, collaborative consumption, commoditize, crowdsourcing, DARPA: Urban Challenge, dematerialisation, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Google Hangouts, Induced demand, intermodal, invention of the printing press, jitney, John Markoff, labor-force participation, lifelogging, Lyft, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, Network effects, Occam's razor, oil shock, place-making, post-work, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, technological singularity, Tesla Model S, the built environment, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, urban renewal, women in the workforce, working-age population, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game, Zipcar
Interactions with land use are important ones and that knowledge base has come a long way. See the Journal of Transport and Land Use for the latest research in the field, or Planning for Place and Plexus (Levinson and Krizek 2008) for a textbook explanation. 22 While the "Iron Law of Congestion" (induced demand) implies that supply creates its own demand, this is true only to a point, while demand is growing faster than supply can accommodate it. If demand is not supply constrained, as in many rural areas where roads are well below capacity, there is no induced demand. If demand is falling for other reasons, even if supply is rising, induced demand stumbles. And once maturity has set in and all the low-hanging fruit (high benefit, low cost projects) have been picked, the net cost of projects rises, fewer and fewer roads get built. 23 Figure 1.1. Note: The graph shows both linked and unlinked transit trips, as the way transit trips are counted has changed, and there is no continuous series of both over the entire period.
Why? We posit "Induced Complexity." When we build a road, we induce demand, travelers who were previously priced off the road due to congestion or extra travel time now switch times of day, routes, modes, and destinations to take advantage of the capacity, and new development is pursued. Similarly, when we get a bigger computer, we can either use it to run the same models faster, or to run more complicated models. It seems the profession leans to the latter. The complexity is in terms of the number of Transport Analysis Zones, or in the number of times slices in a day, or in the number of model components that are considered, or the degree of precision required in equilibrium. This induced complexity is real, and like induced demand is not necessarily a bad thing (if the complexity improves accuracy, it is a good thing), but it is a thing we should all be cognizant of.
In 1934, popular mystery writer Agatha Christie published Murder on the Orient Express. To spoil the ending, she places the responsibility of one man's death not on a single individual, but rather, on the shoulders of many. Many writers attribute the changes to per capita travel demand to declining employment and rising fuel prices. Further the lack of roadway expansion proportionate to population limits the amount of "induced demand" that may have driven travel growth earlier. They certainly are part of the package, but cannot explain everything. Like Christie, we charge several culprits who have cumulatively contribute to the crime of "killing", or at least maiming, traffic. Changing Demographics Both Kevin and David are Generation X (born 1964-1983)46—a group that has not radically affected aggregate transport behavior.
Bikenomics: How Bicycling Can Save the Economy (Bicycle) by Elly Blue
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, active transport: walking or cycling, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, big-box store, Boris Johnson, business cycle, car-free, hydraulic fracturing, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, job automation, Loma Prieta earthquake, medical residency, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, ride hailing / ride sharing, science of happiness, the built environment, urban renewal, women in the workforce, working poor, young professional
Just as predictably, this leads to the rapid deterioration of the common resource and perennial trouble figuring out how to pay to maintain it. It’s a classic example of the tragedy of the commons—when everybody wants to use something, it becomes less useful for everyone. If we were talking about a popular Christmas toy instead, we might predict rioting—and that assessment is not far off the daily reality of and general discourse about our roadways. The term for this phenomenon is “induced demand.” By building a road and inviting the world to use it freely, we are in essence managing the demand for the road in a way that maximizes congestion. More effective demand management strategies exist, like congestion pricing—reducing demand by charging market rates for the use of a road. Congestion pricing has not yet come to the United States, though. New York City failed to pass what would essentially be a toll to drive a car or truck into the most traffic-jammed parts of the city during peak hours.
New York City failed to pass what would essentially be a toll to drive a car or truck into the most traffic-jammed parts of the city during peak hours. But the strategy is working in London, Stockholm, Milan, and Singapore, to keep city streets moving during peak hours. There are other ways to affect demand as well. People in cities all over the world are happy to use a well-run transit system, if it is available, or to ride bicycles if the option is attractive, or a combination of the two. Induced demand also works for bicycling in the same way as it does for cars. When you build bike paths and lanes, or design streets more subtly to be attractive places to bike, people drag their dusty bikes out of the garage and ride. When it comes to bicycling, short trips, close to home, are the lowest-hanging fruit. A quarter of all our daily travel is done within a mile of our homes. We do most of these short hops by car; less car-centric standards for neighborhood roads could easily make bicycling or walking a more attractive option.
And we try to solve pollution in the same way we deal with congestion—by building bigger roads. The current federal transportation bill explicitly offers clean air funds to pay for road widening projects that can show reduced congestion—no matter how faulty the long-term assumptions. But even the short-term congestion relief—a few minutes each day—doesn’t fix pollution. When people can drive faster, they drive farther.73 Induced demand means that if a road does its job as a development tool, the long term impact of pollution—both on that road and on surface streets that it feeds into—goes up astronomically.81 These short-term reprieves amount to expensive long-term investments in much greater air quality problems, as the freeway projects of the past have demonstrated. Also, slow traffic doesn’t necessarily mean more pollution.
Street Smart: The Rise of Cities and the Fall of Cars by Samuel I. Schwartz
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, car-free, City Beautiful movement, collaborative consumption, congestion charging, crowdsourcing, desegregation, Enrique Peñalosa, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, intermodal, invention of the wheel, lake wobegon effect, Loma Prieta earthquake, longitudinal study, Lyft, Masdar, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Nate Silver, oil shock, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, self-driving car, skinny streets, smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, the built environment, the map is not the territory, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, uber lyft, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, walkable city, Wall-E, white flight, white picket fence, Works Progress Administration, Yogi Berra, Zipcar
Somehow, those eighty thousand cars went somewhere, but to this day we have no idea where. Or how, two years later, twenty-five thousand more people were getting into Manhattan’s Central Business District. What made this interesting is that it was a nearly perfect example of what the economist Anthony Downs named the Law of Peak-Hour Expressway Congestion and which another economist, Gilles Duranton, called induced demand. Boiled down to the basics, induced demand is what happens when the supply of a good increases and more of that supply then gets consumed: when a host puts out more cheese and crackers, her guests eat more cheese and crackers. What this means in road (and bridge, and tunnel) building is not just obvious but as well documented as anything in transportation engineering: “If you build it, they will come.” If you build more lanes on the expressway, more cars and trucks will use it.
The average distance for both had been on an upward slope for decades. In 1960, when the United States had 64.6 million full-time workers, 9.4 million, or 14.5 percent of them, worked outside the county in which they lived; by 2000, 128.3 million were employed, and 34.3 million worked outside their home counties: 27 percent. Average commuting times inched up to more than fifty minutes a day. Because of induced demand, there was no engineering fix to this problem: no matter how many roads we built, or how well, people weren’t getting from point A to point B any faster, partly because points A and B were getting further apart, partly because we had reached the limits of what could be done to improve automotive speed and safety even using the limited definitions of an earlier era of engineering doctrine. Transportation had fallen into a vicious cycle in which more and more resources were being spent to less and less effect.
Working in Public: The Making and Maintenance of Open Source Software by Nadia Eghbal
Amazon Web Services, barriers to entry, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), bitcoin, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, commoditize, continuous integration, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Heinemeier Hansson, death of newspapers, Debian, disruptive innovation, en.wikipedia.org, Ethereum, Firefox, Guido van Rossum, Hacker Ethic, Induced demand, informal economy, Jane Jacobs, Jean Tirole, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Kubernetes, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, Network effects, node package manager, Norbert Wiener, pirate software, pull request, RFC: Request For Comment, Richard Stallman, Ronald Coase, Ruby on Rails, side project, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, social graph, software as a service, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, two-sided market, urban planning, web application, wikimedia commons, Zimmermann PGP
Withoutboats, a contributor to the Rust project, describes how innocuous contributions can become extractive as the project grows: When there have already been 770 comments on a subject, you’re obviously not going to read them all. . . . Every comment added to a discussion thread is ultimately a form of debt, and its [sic] a form of debt with compound interest. . . . . No matter how many GitHub issues we create, it seems that every single one will grow in length until it becomes an unsustainable conversation. We have a problem of induced demand: just as adding lanes to a highway does not resolve traffic congestion, creating more threads does not resolve comment congestion.272 The threat of induced demand explains why the solution to managing extractive contributions is not always to add more contributors—tempting as that may be—but to draw clearer boundaries between which types of tasks are worth allocating anyone’s attention to and which can be safely ignored. Rather than asking “How do we do everything that’s required of us?
India's Long Road by Vijay Joshi
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, barriers to entry, Basel III, basic income, blue-collar work, Bretton Woods, business climate, capital controls, central bank independence, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, colonial rule, congestion charging, corporate governance, creative destruction, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Doha Development Round, eurozone crisis, facts on the ground, failed state, financial intermediation, financial repression, first-past-the-post, floating exchange rates, full employment, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global value chain, hiring and firing, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, Induced demand, inflation targeting, invisible hand, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, Martin Wolf, means of production, microcredit, moral hazard, obamacare, Pareto efficiency, price mechanism, price stability, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, rent-seeking, reserve currency, rising living standards, school choice, school vouchers, secular stagnation, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, special drawing rights, The Future of Employment, The Market for Lemons, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, universal basic income, urban sprawl, working-age population
External effects, E d u c at i o n a n d H e a lt h C a r e [ 191 ] 192 while present, are not pervasive. So the case for state intervention is not decisive. (There remains, however, one plausible source of market failure in primary care. This arises from the fact that patients are ill-informed in medical matters. Doctors know much more about medicine than patients, so there is a potential for supplier-induced demand: patients may be inveigled into buying unnecessary, and possibly even harmful, treatment.)38 There is of course an equity case for subsidizing primary care for poor people. But this is an argument for public finance, not necessarily for public provision. Whether public provision is a good thing depends on the quality of public provision. Ultimately, the relative desirability of government and private provision can be settled only by comparing their performance on the ground.
And though the government spends a lot of money on primary care infrastructure and personnel, it delivers care that is no better in competence and much worse in effort than the private sector. On the demand side, patients much prefer going to fee-charging, private, often unqualified doctors, who treat patients with much more consideration and courtesy than government doctors, and make up in effort what they lack in qualifications. But they also offer antibiotic and steroid treatments for ordinary, often self-limiting, conditions. There is surely an element of supplier-induced demand in this; unfortunately, it appears now to have E d u c at i o n a n d H e a lt h C a r e [ 195 ] 196 become ingrained in consumer preferences. People do not feel they are being properly cared for unless they are prescribed antibiotics. Given this dismal scenario, what are the policy implications for primary care? It is clear that a business-as-usual expansion of the public sector would be a waste of money.
The understanding would have to be that providers, public or private, that do not attract patients would W h at I s t o B e D o n e ? W h at Li e s A h e a d ? [ 303 ] 304 have to contract or close down. I see no realistic hope of improving the abysmal quality of care in the public sector without competition. Of course, the system I envisage would need state regulation. Though market failures are not pervasive in primary care, they are certainly not absent. Supplier- induced demand undoubtedly exists. For example, patients may be cajoled or even deceived by private doctors into taking antibiotics they do not need. (There are some similar horror stories in secondary care as well, for example of women being ‘persuaded’ to have unnecessary hysterectomies.) So, regulation is inescapable, combined with programmes to train unqualified private doctors, and measures to curb the open availability of prescription drugs and medicines across the counter.
City 2.0: The Habitat of the Future and How to Get There by Ted Books
active transport: walking or cycling, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, big-box store, carbon footprint, cleantech, collaborative consumption, crowdsourcing, demand response, housing crisis, Induced demand, Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, jitney, Kibera, Kickstarter, Kitchen Debate, McMansion, megacity, New Urbanism, openstreetmap, ride hailing / ride sharing, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart grid, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, Zipcar
After the West Side Highway was replaced, traffic in that section of Manhattan dropped from 140,000 to 95,000 vehicles per day. Many drivers switched to faster roads in New Jersey, and as New York City invested more in public transportation, some commuters switched their daily patterns to ride subways and buses (New York is the only city in the country where fewer than half of all households own a car). Traffic is one of the best-known examples of induced demand; the more roads, the more people will use them. If the ultimate goal is to curb driving in a city and to move people away from unsustainable transportation sources, reducing the space allotted to cars is a good way to start. Naysayers will tell you that these urban highway removal projects were exceptional cases in which a confluence of natural disasters, strong-willed politicians, or other unique factors allowed for the removal.
Copenhagenize: The Definitive Guide to Global Bicycle Urbanism by Mikael Colville-Andersen
active transport: walking or cycling, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, business cycle, car-free, congestion charging, corporate social responsibility, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Enrique Peñalosa, functional fixedness, if you build it, they will come, Induced demand, intermodal, Jane Jacobs, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Kickstarter, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, neurotypical, out of africa, place-making, Ralph Waldo Emerson, self-driving car, sharing economy, smart cities, starchitect, transcontinental railway, urban planning, urban sprawl, Yogi Berra
All we need to do is the same for cycling. Make the space available and an impressive number of people will ride. Every city has at least 25 percent of the population who will take to the “wheel,” as it once was called, if infrastructure and traffic-calming are implemented. Two million private bicycles have been sold in Paris since the city’s bike-share system, Vélib’, hit the streets in 2007. This is positive induced demand. If you don’t see anyone swimming, does that mean you don’t need a bridge? I love the statistic that 67 percent of motorists in Copenhagen want more bicycle infrastructure. Why? Because we’ve shown them and they get it. They can do the math visually. If a motorist is sitting at a red light with five cars in front of them and 100 cyclists at the red light on the cycle track next to them, they can see it.
The task at hand was to slowly rebuild it and adapt to a new car-centric reality. There were few Danes or Dutch being invited to conferences to talk about their work. There were no publishers emailing people like me to write books about bicycle urbanism. The work was done quietly in municipal offices, without much fanfare or external attention. As user rates on the expanding infrastructure started to rise, the induced demand led to a further expansion of the network and the extent of infrastructure. Nowadays, bold political goals are laid out in our performance-based culture in order to keep people interested and get politicians elected or reelected. Any other city on the planet could replicate the success of Copenhagen or Amsterdam in 40 years, absolutely. What we’re seeing, however, is cities that are moving much faster now that the blueprints for success are readily available to copy and paste.
Streetfight: Handbook for an Urban Revolution by Janette Sadik-Khan
autonomous vehicles, bike sharing scheme, Boris Johnson, business cycle, call centre, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, crowdsourcing, digital map, edge city, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, Enrique Peñalosa, Hyperloop, Induced demand, Jane Jacobs, Loma Prieta earthquake, Lyft, New Urbanism, place-making, self-driving car, sharing economy, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight, Works Progress Administration, Zipcar
Urban designer Jeff Speck, who has seen this assumption play out on the streets of hundreds of cities and towns, says it’s the mark of “the fundamental intellectual bankruptcy of traffic engineering as a profession and its unwillingness to acknowledge that environment influences behavior.” “And that plays out both in terms of traffic and in terms of safety,” he told me. “In traffic it’s induced demand, the idea that you add a lane to absorb traffic without acknowledging that that lane will cause traffic.” After building an eight-lane highway in a major urban area, a city almost invariably finds itself with eight lanes of slow-moving traffic soon thereafter. When, in an effort to ease that traffic, the eight-lane road is expanded by 25 percent to ten lanes, the city will eventually have ten lanes of traffic and nearly 25 percent more traffic, not 25 percent less.
Boulevard, 220 Diarrassouba traffic fatality, 207–8 Harlem River, 145 Harris, Patti, 228 Hasidim, and Kent Avenue bike lane, 162, 163 Hazen, Don, 12 Helmets, bike, 150, 190–91, 222–24 Helsinki, “Mobility as a Service,” 287–88 Hendy, Peter, 35 Henry Street, 258 Herald Square, 85, 92–94, 100–101 Heyward, Leon, 123 Hidalgo, Anne, 70 High Line, 20, 83, 292, 294 Highway lane widths, 49–51, 54 Highway system, 15, 16, 28, 183 Highway Trust Fund, 27 Hindy, Steve, 230 Holland Tunnel, 44 Hollywood, 69–70 Homicides gun, 209 in Medellín, 110 Horticultural Society, 125 Housing costs and density, 25–26 Houston, Texas population, 36 urban planning, 36 Houston Street, 11 Hudson River Greenway, 230 Hudson Street bike lane, 21, 21–22 Hurricane Sandy, 189–90, 278–80 Hylan Boulevard, 268 I Iconic streets, 3. See also specific streets “Induced” demand, 62–63 Infrastructure, 265–80 bridges, 266–67, 267, 271–72 crisis in America, 266–67, 269 lighting, 272–73 parking, 273–77 paving asphalt, 267, 269–71 Staten Island, 267–69, 271 trucking, 277–78 Institute of Transportation Development Policy (ITDP), 276–77 Institute of Transportation Engineers, 30 Intersections model street, 49–50, 50 rearranging complex model street, 59, 60, 61 rearranging model street, 52–53, 54, 55–56 traffic signals and signs, 12, 38–39 Interstate 405 (California), 47–48, 62, 65 Interstate Highway, 15, 16, 28, 183 Interstate Highway Act of 1956, 16 Iraq war, 208–9 Istanbul, Taksim Square, 3 J Jackson, Kenneth, 18 Jacobs, Jane, 8–10, 11, 18–19, 20–21 battle between Robert Moses and, 9–10, 12, 18 on street life, 9–10, 11, 19, 20–21 Jane’s Lane (Hudson Street), 21, 21–22 Jardín Circunvalar, 115 Jarvis Avenue, 147–48 “Jaywalking,” 65 Jay-Z, 118–19 Jersey barriers, 140, 142 Jewel Avenue, traffic fatalities, 220 Johannesburg, 117 Johnson, Boris, 70 Jubilee Year 2016, 283 K Kayden, Jerold, xvi Kelly, Mary Beth, 230 Kelly, Ray, 156–57, 174 Kent Avenue bike lane, 144, 162–64 Kerouac, Jack, 273 Koch, Ed, 12, 14, 152–53 L LaHood, Ray, 31, 219 Lander, Brad, 172 “Latent” demand, 62–63 La Vorgna, Marc, 174 LED lighting, 272 Legible London, 129, 132 Leguizamo, John, 219 Lerner, Jaime, 234 Lighting, 272–73 Lincoln Center, 15 Lincoln Tunnel, 44, 242 Litman, Todd, 28 Little Italy, 75 Lombard Street, 3 London bike lanes, 70 bike lane sabotage attacks, 146 bike share, 191, 192 congestion pricing, 42 street map signs, 129, 132 sustainability plans, 35 Trafalgar Square, 3 London 2012 Summer Olympics, 35 London Plan, 35 London School of Economics, 28 Long Island Railroad, 240 Look!
Doctored: The Disillusionment of an American Physician by Sandeep Jauhar
Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, delayed gratification, illegal immigration, income inequality, Induced demand, medical malpractice, moral hazard, obamacare, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, source of truth, stem cell, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Yogi Berra
These “appropriate-use criteria” (bolstered by “comparative effectiveness research”) are essential for educating physicians and patients alike about medical services that are wasteful and should be avoided. (By employing these criteria, cardiologists have been able—or forced—to decrease their use of imaging by 20 percent.) In fact, better-informed patients might be the most potent restraint on overutilization. A large percentage of health care costs is a consequence of induced demand—that is, physicians persuading patients to consume services they would not have chosen had they been better educated. If patients were more involved in medical decision-making (admittedly not easy to put into practice in the hyperspeed that is contemporary American medicine, and also obviously at odds with regulation-driven P4P care), there would be more constraints on doctors’ behavior, thus decreasing the possibility of unnecessary testing.
The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future by Michael Levi
addicted to oil, American energy revolution, Berlin Wall, British Empire, business cycle, Carmen Reinhart, crony capitalism, deglobalization, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fixed income, full employment, global supply chain, hiring and firing, hydraulic fracturing, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kenneth Rogoff, manufacturing employment, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea
But if, as a result, you were to drive twice as much, each extra trip would suck up ten dollars more of your time, a terrible trade. 98. Qing Su, “A Quantile Regression Analysis of the Rebound Effect: Evidence from the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey in the United States,” Energy Policy 45, pp. 368–377 (2012); Kent M. Hymel, Kenneth 238 • NOTES FOR PAGES 139–141 99. 100. 101. 102. 103. 104. 105. 106. 107. 108. A. Small, and Kurt Van Dender, “Induced Demand and Rebound Effects in Road Transport,” Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 44, no. 10 (2010). Tad W. Patzek, “Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle,” Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 23, no. 6 (2004); David Pimentel and Tad W. Patzek, “Ethanol Production Using Corn, Switchgrass, and Wood; Biodiesel Production Using Soybean and Sunflower,” Natural Resources Research 14, no. 1 (2005); Yang Yi et al., “Replacing Gasoline with Corn Ethanol Results in Significant Environmental Problem-Shifting,” Environmental Science and Technology 46, no. 7 (2012).
The Culture of Narcissism: American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations by Christopher Lasch
cuban missile crisis, delayed gratification, desegregation, feminist movement, full employment, George Santayana, impulse control, Induced demand, invisible hand, Kitchen Debate, Marshall McLuhan, mass immigration, means of production, Norman Mailer, road to serfdom, Scientific racism, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, theory of mind, Thorstein Veblen, union organizing, upwardly mobile, urban renewal, yellow journalism
Having achieved a complete separation of handwork and brain work , management monopolizes technical knowledge Paternalism Without Father : 235 234 : The Culture of Narcissism tion, tries to present the professional as the successor to the capitalist. The ideology of "compassion he says, serves the class in terest of the "post-industrial surplus of functionaries who, in the manner of industrialists who earlier turned to advertising, induce demand for their own products Professional self-aggrandizement however, grew up side by side with the advertising industry and must be seen as another and reduces the worker to a human machine; but the administra- " tion and continual elaboration of this knowledge require an evergrowing managerial apparatus, itself organized on the principles , of the factory with its intricate subdivision of tasks.
The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey
3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, business cycle, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, Peter Calthorpe, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve
The cost of rearing children does not decline substantially, so they become more expensive relative to the new opportunities and goods afforded by increased international trade. In addition, Doces cites a 2006 study analyzing the effects on globalization on women in 180 countries that shows “increasing international exchange and communication create new opportunities for income-generating work and expose countries to norms that, in recent decades, have promoted equality for women.”46 As a result, trade-induced demand for human capital expands to include women, further cutting fertility rates in poor countries. This conclusion is further bolstered by a 2005 study by University of Helsinki economists Ulla Lehmijoki and Tapio Palokangas; according to this study, in the short run trade liberalization boosts birth rates, but in the long run it cuts fertility. Again, this is true largely because trade liberalization encourages the development of women’s human capital (education), which makes childbearing relatively more costly.
Crude Volatility: The History and the Future of Boom-Bust Oil Prices by Robert McNally
American energy revolution, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bretton Woods, collective bargaining, credit crunch, energy security, energy transition, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, index fund, Induced demand, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, joint-stock company, market clearing, market fundamentalism, moral hazard, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price discrimination, price stability, sovereign wealth fund, transfer pricing
The history of oil markets and oil’s enduring features suggest a free market price is likely to be a volatile one. It is possible the unmanaged interplay global supply and demand will automatically yield stable prices, but it is more likely future oil trends will resemble those in the past and feature vast shifts, sustained imbalances, upheaval, and surprises. In the short term, oil is likely to range between shut-in costs—well below $30—and prices that induce demand slowdowns if not recessions—well above $100. Price gyrations through this range would destabilize not only our oil industry, but broader economic and financial sectors as well as geopolitics. Investors, officials, and thinkers will need to innovate and implement coping strategies to deal with the mixed blessing of an unmanaged oil market. Welcome back to boom-bust. NOTES INTRODUCTION: THE TEXAS PARADOX 1.
Happy City: Transforming Our Lives Through Urban Design by Charles Montgomery
2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, agricultural Revolution, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon footprint, centre right, City Beautiful movement, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, East Village, edge city, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, experimental subject, Frank Gehry, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, license plate recognition, McMansion, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, New Urbanism, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, science of happiness, Seaside, Florida, Silicon Valley, starchitect, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transit-oriented development, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban sprawl, wage slave, white flight, World Values Survey, zero-sum game, Zipcar
It was just the beginning of an ambitious plan to transform the entire arterial skeleton of the city by gradually doing for other arteries what had been started on Nørrebrogade, Tørslov told me. The city’s new metric: “conversation cycling infrastructure,” or routes that are wide enough so that two people can bike side by side and chat, making the commute just a little more like a social visit. All of which raises a curious parallel: just as North American cities created more automobile traffic through decades of road building, Copenhagen has induced demand for other ways of moving, especially cycling, by making streets more complete. Are cities that pursue new means of mobility heading for congestion 2.0? Well, as Anthony Downs pointed out, congestion is an entirely natural feature of any vibrant city. So we should differentiate between types of congestion. It is not moving vehicles per se that nourish the city, but people and goods. Traffic that delivers the highest volume of people and goods for every square foot of infrastructure is clearly best for the city—and arguably best for travelers themselves.
Betrayal of Trust: The Collapse of Global Public Health by Laurie Garrett
accounting loophole / creative accounting, airport security, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, biofilm, clean water, collective bargaining, desegregation, discovery of DNA, discovery of penicillin, Drosophila, employer provided health coverage, Fall of the Berlin Wall, germ theory of disease, global pandemic, illegal immigration, indoor plumbing, Induced demand, John Snow's cholera map, Jones Act, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, mass incarceration, Maui Hawaii, means of production, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mouse model, Nelson Mandela, new economy, nuclear winter, phenotype, profit motive, Project Plowshare, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Right to Buy, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, stem cell, the scientific method, urban decay, urban renewal, War on Poverty, working poor, Works Progress Administration, yellow journalism
It wasn’t the patient or the insurance company that said, “let’s run another test on that gall bladder.” It was the doctor. And the doctor decided how much to charge for the time he or she spent studying the test results and treating the patient. From the point of view of economists, this was insane. It meant consumers could not behave as consumers, shop around, choose not to buy, or to buy elsewhere. And doctors induced demand. In other words, the supplier manipulated demand.360 After creation of Part B of Medicare, the trend spiraled completely out of control.361 This constituted a market failure because there was no genuine competition and consumers could not “vote with their feet and paychecks,” opting out of treatment. In the 1960s and 1970s the U.S. government tried to create more physician competition by easing immigration procedures for foreign doctors.
., Goodman, A. C., and Stano, M., The Economics of Health and Health Care. New York: Macmillan, 1993. 361. Feldman, R., “Competition among physicians, revisited.” Journal of Health, Politics, Policy and Law 13 (1988): 239–261; McMenamin, P., “A crime storm from Medicare Part B.” Health Affairs (Winter 1988): 94–101; and Rice, T. H., “The impact of changing Medicare reimbursement rates on physician-induced demand.” Medical Care 21 (1983): 803–815. 362. Cooper, B. and Rice, D., The Economic Cost of Illness Revisited. Washington, D.C.: National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Public Health Service, HEW, 1976. 363. Source: Health Care Financing Administration. 364. Ibid. 365. Dorothy Rice kindly provided me with her data on June 10, 1983, during an interview. Her numbers were as follows: 366.
Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (And What It Says About Us) by Tom Vanderbilt
Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, call centre, cellular automata, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, cognitive dissonance, computer vision, congestion charging, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, DARPA: Urban Challenge, endowment effect, extreme commuting, fundamental attribution error, Google Earth, hedonic treadmill, hindsight bias, hive mind, if you build it, they will come, impulse control, income inequality, Induced demand, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, Kenneth Arrow, lake wobegon effect, loss aversion, megacity, Milgram experiment, Nash equilibrium, Sam Peltzman, Silicon Valley, statistical model, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, traffic fines, ultimatum game, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce, working poor
Mid-Atlantic Region,” Journal of Transportation and Statistics, vol. 3, no. 1 (2000), pp. 1–14. A study in California found that a 1 percent increase in lane-miles creates an immediate increase in vehicle-miles traveled of 0. 2 percent. See Mark Hansen and Huang Yuanlin, “Road Supply and Traffic in California Urban Areas,” Transportation Research A, vol. 31 (1997), pp. 205–18. Robert B. Noland, a scientist at Imperial College London, has compiled an extensive bibliography of “induced demand” research; it’s available at http://www.vtpi.org/induced_bib.htm. on the affected roads: See S. Cairns, S. Atkins, and P. Goodwin, “Disappearing Traffic? The Story So Far,” Municipal Engineer, vol. 151, no. 1 (March 2002), pp. 13–22. There was an interesting example of this phenomenon in New York City. When Christo’s The Gates was on display in New York’s Central Park and the roads that crisscross the park were closed to traffic, the city’s transportation department did find local streets more crowded, for the short time that the art was installed.
The Rise of the Network Society by Manuel Castells
"Robert Solow", Apple II, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Noyce, borderless world, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, complexity theory, computer age, computerized trading, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, declining real wages, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, deskilling, disintermediation, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, edge city, experimental subject, financial deregulation, financial independence, floating exchange rates, future of work, global village, Gunnar Myrdal, Hacker Ethic, hiring and firing, Howard Rheingold, illegal immigration, income inequality, Induced demand, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, intermodal, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, job-hopping, John Markoff, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, Leonard Kleinrock, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, moral panic, new economy, New Urbanism, offshore financial centre, oil shock, open economy, packet switching, Pearl River Delta, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, popular capitalism, popular electronics, post-industrial society, postindustrial economy, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social software, South China Sea, South of Market, San Francisco, special economic zone, spinning jenny, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Ted Nelson, the built environment, the medium is the message, the new new thing, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, transaction costs, urban renewal, urban sprawl, zero-sum game
Consumption and/or investment will then be higher with stepped-up technological change. If price elasticities are high, employment losses will be compensated by extra demand from both old and new sectors. 4 Yet the critical matter is the right mix between process innovation and product innovation. If process innovation progresses faster, a decline in employment will occur, all other factors being equal. If product innovation leads the pace, then newly induced demand could result in higher employment. The problem with such elegant economic analyses is always in the assumptions: all other factors are never equal. Boyer himself acknowledges this fact, and then examines the empirical fit of his model, observing, again, a wide range of variation between different industries and countries. While Boyer and Mistral found a negative relationship between productivity and employment for the OECD as a whole in the period 1980–86, a comparative analysis by Boyer on OECD countries identified three different patterns of employment in areas with similar levels of R&D density.101 1 In Japan an efficient model of mass production and consumption was able to sustain productivity growth and employment growth, on the basis of enhanced competitiveness. 2 In the United States, there was an impressive rate of job creation, but by concentrating on generating large numbers of low-wage, low-productivity jobs in traditional service activities. 3 In Western Europe, most economies entered a vicious circle: to cope with increased international competition, firms introduced labor-saving technologies, thus increasing output but leveling off the capacity to generate jobs, particularly in manufacturing.