one-China policy

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The Retreat of Western Liberalism by Edward Luce

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Not only did he accept a congratulatory call from Taiwan’s president, in itself a provocative departure, he also threatened US recognition of Taiwanese independence as a bargaining chip in his coming trade showdown. To be sure, Washington’s foreign policy experts instantly grasped how reckless this was. Since 1979, America – and most of the rest of the world – has accepted the ‘One China’ policy that entailed exclusive recognition of China. But the rest of us were slow to pick up on its implications. This was Trump messing with his Twitter account, we reassured ourselves. The system will guide him to a safer place once he takes office. Even after Trump delivered the most incendiary inaugural address in US history we still reached for our comfort blankets.

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During the Clinton years, Washington’s assumption was that a growing China could easily be hedged. The biggest moment came in 1996, after China conducted a series of missile tests in the Taiwan Strait. China launched the tests after America had invited Lee Teng-hui, Taiwan’s president, to speak at Cornell University, which Beijing saw as an implicit weakening of America’s One China policy. China also suspected that Lee harboured separatist sympathies. Clinton promptly ordered two aircraft carrier groups into the region, one of which, under the USS Nimitz, patrolled the Taiwan Strait. It worked. China backed off and Lee won a thumping re-election later that year. Yet Clinton’s display of force also triggered unintended consequences.

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., 149 media: exposure of Nixon, 131–2; fake news, 130, 148, 178–9; falling credibility in US, 130; in Russia, 129–31, 172–3; television, 84, 128, 129, 130 medicine and healthcare, 35, 36, 42, 58, 59, 60, 62, 102, 103, 198 Medvedev, Dimitry, 79 Meiji Restoration in Japan, 78 mercantilism, 78 ‘meritocracy’, 43, 44–6 Merkel, Angela, 15, 180 Mexico, 29, 114 Middle East, 181, 183 Middle East and North Africans (MENAs, US ethnic category), 95 Midland, Michigan, 194–5 migration, 41, 99–100, 196, 198; current crisis, 70, 100, 140, 180–1; and welfare systems, 101, 102 Milanovic, Branko, 31, 32, 33 Mill, John Stuart, 161, 162 Mineta, Norman, 134 Mitterrand, François, 90, 107 Modi, Narendra, 201 Moldova, Grape Revolution (2009), 79 Mongol China, 25 Monroe Doctrine (1823), 164–5 Moore, Barrington, 12 Morozov, Evgeny, The Net Delusion, 129 Mounk, Yascha, 68, 123 Müller, Jan-Werner, 90, 118, 139 multinational companies, 26–7, 69–70 multipolarity, 6–8, 70 Musharraf, Pervez, 80 Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, 82 Napoleonic Wars, 156 Nathan, Andrew, 84 National Endowment for Democracy (NED), 82 National Front in France, 15, 102, 108–10 National Health Service, 102 nationalism: comeback of, 11, 97, 102, 108–9, 170, 174; and end of Cold War, 5; European, 10–11, 102, 108–9; and global trilemma, 72–3; Summers’ responsible nationalism, 71–2 Nato alliance, 135, 140, 179 Navarro, Peter, 149, 167, 180 Negroponte, Nicholas, 127 Netherlands, 102 New York, 49–50, 54 New Yorker, 35 Nixon, Richard, 131–2, 134 non-governmental organisations (NGOs), 85 North American Free Trade Agreement, 73 North Korea, 175 nuclear weapons, 5, 167, 174–6 Nuttall, Paul, 90 Obama, Barack: and AIIB, 84; and Arab Spring, 82; Asia pivot policy, 157, 160–1; election of (2008), 97; and financial sector, 193, 199; gay marriage issue, 188; gender identity order (2016), 187–8; on history’s long arc, 190; and Islam, 182; and nuclear weapons, 175–6; trip to China (2009), 159–60; US–Russia relations, 79; and world trade agreements, 73; ‘wrong side of history’ language, 187–8, 190 Occupy Wall Street, 139 oikophobia, 111–12, 117 Opium Wars, 23 Orbán, Viktor, 138–9, 181 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 29 Orwell, George, 69, 128 Oxford University, 4 Paine, Thomas, 126 Pakistan, 175 Philippines, 61, 136–7, 138, 160, 202 Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE), 4 Plato, 137 politics in West: 1968 Democratic Convention, 188–9; decline of established parties, 88–90; declining faith in system, 8–9, 12, 14, 88–9, 98–100, 103–4, 119–23, 202–3; and disappearing growth, 13; falling voter turnout in UK, 99; left embraces personal liberation (1960s), 188–9; and ‘meritocracy’, 43–6; move rightwards of working classes, 95–9, 102, 108–10, 189–91, 194–5; and national identity, 71–3; privatising of risk since late 1970s, 191–3; responses to digital revolution, 52–4, 56–8, 59–61, 67–8; Third Way, 89–92; urban–hinterland split, 46–51, 119, 120, 130, 135; US political system, 131–6; voter disdain for elites, 14, 98–100, 110, 119 Pomerantsev, Peter, Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible, 79, 130, 140, 172 populist right: ‘alt-right’ fringe, 97, 104; America First movement, 117; and automation, 67; cultural and economic anxieties, 190–6; Davos’s solution, 69, 70–1; in Europe, 139–40; Andrew Jackson’s election (1828), 113–14; and migration crisis, 181; as not democratic, 139; racism as not root cause, 97, 98, 100, 195; Republican Party dog whistles, 190; stealing of the left’s clothes, 103; ‘take back control’ as war cry, 190; and war against truth, 79, 86, 127, 128–31, 172–4, 178–9, 195–6; see also Putin, Vladimir; Trump, Donald Portugal, 77 Primakov, Yevgeny, 6 protectionism, 19–20, 73, 78, 149 Putin, Vladimir: 2012 presidential victory, 130; annexation of Crimea (2014), 8, 173; and fall of Soviet Union, 6; interference in Europe, 179, 180; and Islam, 182; mastery of diversion/confusion, 86, 129, 130–1, 137, 172–3; Medvedev succeeds (2008), 79; replaces Yeltsin as president, 78; Trump’s admiration for, 7, 129, 135; and Trump’s victory, 7, 12, 79; and US ‘war on terror’, 80; and US–China war scenario, 146–7, 152–3 Putnam, Robert, 38 Quadruple Alliance, 7 Quah, Danny, 21 race and ethnicity: and 2016 US Presidential election, 94, 95, 96–7, 98; and ‘identity liberalism’, 14, 96–8; majority-white backlash concept, 12, 14, 96, 102, 104; poor whites in USA, 95–6, 112–13; return of racial politics, 102, 103, 104; US classification data, 94–5; and welfare systems, 101, 102 racism, 97, 98, 99, 100–1, 104, 113–14, 195 Reagan, Ronald, 37 Reagan Democrats, 95, 189 Reeves, Richard, 44 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, 167 remote intelligence, 13, 61–2 Renaissance, 24 Reuther, Walter, 66–7 the rich, 32–3, 50–1, 68, 197; Aristotle on, 200; loss of faith in democracy, 122–3; and rising inequality, 32–3, 43, 46; Trump’s support for, 193, 195, 196, 199–200 robot economy, 34, 51–5, 56, 60–2, 123 Rodrik, Dani, 72, 73 Rome, classical, 25, 128–9 Roosevelt, Eleanor, 10 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 128 Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, 126 RT (Russian state TV channel), 84, 85 Rubin, Robert, 71 Russia: conference on ‘polycentric world order’ (Moscow, 2016), 5–8; dissidents’ view of West, 140; expulsion of Western NGOs, 85; as failed democracy, 12, 78, 79, 82, 173; and fake news, 178; media in, 129–31, 172–3; metropolitan elites, 130; and multipolarity, 6–8; and nuclear weapons, 175; privatisation fire sale in, 79; reality-TV politics in, 79, 86, 129–31, 172–3; Revolution (1917), 115; and Trump, 7, 12, 79; and Washington Consensus, 29, 78–9; see also Putin, Vladimir; Soviet Union Sajadpour, Karim, 193, 194–5 Salazar, António de Oliveira, 77 San Bernardino massacre (2015), 182 San Francisco, 49 Sanders, Bernie, 92, 93 Santayana, George, 10 Saudi Arabia, 175, 182 Scandinavia, 43, 101, 197 Schröder, Gerhard, 90 Schwarzman, Stephen, 199–200 science, 72, 171, 172 Scopes Monkey trial, 111 Scruton, Roger, 111–12 Seattle world trade talks (1999), 73 Second World War, 116–17, 163, 169, 170–1 Sessions, Jeff, 151 Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 80 Shultz, George, 132 Shultz, Martin, 15 Singapore, 21 Sino-Indian war (1962), 166 slave trade, African, 23, 55, 56 Smith, Adam, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, 38–9 Social Darwinism, 162 social insurance systems, 42, 101–3, 191, 198 social media, 34, 39, 53, 54, 66, 67, 70, 178 Solow, Robert, 34 South America, 32 South China Sea, 147–8, 160–1 South Korea, 21, 29 Soviet Union, 80, 115, 130, 171, 174; collapse of, 6, 78, 168; see also Russia Spain, 43, 63, 77, 140 Stalin, Joseph, 128, 171 suburban crisis, 46–8 Summers, Lawrence, 71 Sun Tzu, 161 Surkov, Vladislav, 172–3 surveillance technologies, 68 Sweden, 101, 122 Taiwan, 145, 158, 164, 165, 166–7, 168; and US ‘One China’ policy, 145–6, 158; and US–China war scenario, 145, 151–3 Taiwan Strait, 152, 158 Task Rabbit, 63 taxation, 110, 198, 199–200 technology: age of electricity, 58–9; and globalisation, 55–6; leap forward (from 1870), 58–9; steam power, 24, 55–6; the telegraph, 127; as Trump’s friend, 131, 171; and utopian leaps of faith, 127–8; see also digital revolution television, 84, 128, 129, 130 tesobono crisis, Mexican (2005), 29 Thailand, 21, 82 Thatcher, Margaret, 189–90 Thiel, Peter, 34, 53 Thompson, E.P., 201 Thoreau, Henry David, 127–8 Thrower, Randolph, 132 Tillerson, Rex, 147–8, 161 Toil Index, 35–6 Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership, 73, 167 transport, 54, 55, 56–7, 58, 61; self-driving vehicles, 54, 57, 60, 68 Trump, Donald: admiration for Putin, 7, 129, 135; and America First movement, 117; autocratic/authoritarian nature of, 133, 169, 171, 178–9; Bannon as Surkov of, 173; Chinese view of, 85–6, 140; confusion as strategic goal, 79, 86, 127, 128, 130, 131, 173, 178–9, 195–6; foreign policy, 167–70, 178–80, 181–4; ignorance of how other countries think, 161, 167–9; inaugural address, 135, 146; Andrew Jackson comparisons, 113–14; and male voters, 57; as mortal threat to democracy, 97, 104, 111, 126, 133–6, 138, 139, 161, 169–70, 178–84, 203–4; and Muslim ban, 135, 181, 182; narcissism of, 170; need for new Mark Felt/Deep Throat, 136; and nuclear weapons, 175, 176; offers cure worse than the disease, 14, 181; plan to deport Mexican immigrants, 114, 135; poorly educated as base, 103, 123; promised border wall, 94–5; protectionism of, 19–20, 73, 149; and pro wrestling, 124; stealing of the left’s clothes, 101, 103; stoking of racism by, 97; support for plutocracy, 193, 195, 196, 199–200; and Taiwan, 145, 166–7, 168; targeting of Muslims, 135, 181–3, 195–6; and Twitter, 70, 146; and UFC, 126; urban–hinterland split in 2016 vote, 47–8, 119, 120, 130, 135; and US political system, 131, 133–5; US–China war scenario, 145–53, 161; victory in US presidential election, 5, 6–7, 11–12, 15, 28, 47–8, 79, 87, 96–8, 111, 120, 194–5 Trump: The Game (board game), 7 Tsai Ing-Wen, 151 Tunisia, 12, 82 Turkey, 12, 82, 137, 140, 175 Twitter, 34, 53, 70, 146 Uber, 63 UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship), 125–6, 127 UK Independence Party (UKIP), 90, 98, 100, 101–2, 190; xenophobia during Brexit campaign, 100–1 Ukraine: Orange Revolution (2004), 79; Putin’s annexation of Crimea (2014), 8, 173 United States of America (USA): 1968 Democratic Convention, 188–9; 2016 presidential election, 5, 6–7, 11–12, 15, 28, 47–8, 79, 87–8, 91–8, 119, 130, 133, 135; 9/11 terrorist attacks, 79–80, 81, 182; America First movement, 117; civil rights victories (1960s), 190; ‘complacent classes’ in, 40; Constitution, 112–13, 163; and containment of China, 25–6, 145–6, 157–61, 165; decline of established parties, 89; declining hegemony of, 14, 21–2, 26–8, 140–1, 200–1; domestic terrorist attacks, 182, 183; elite–heartland divide, 47–8, 119, 130, 135; foreign policy since WW2, 183–4; gig economy, 63–5; gilded age, 42–3; growth after 2008 crisis, 30–1; growth of inequality in modern era, 43, 44–8, 49, 50–1; history in popular imagination, 163; Lend-Lease aid to Britain, 169; middle-income problem in, 35–41; Monroe Doctrine (1823), 164–5; murder rate in suburbs, 47; nineteenth-century migration to, 41; Operation Iraqi Freedom, 8, 81, 85, 156; opioid-heroin epidemic, 37–8; Patriot Act, 80; political system, 112–13, 131–6, 163; post-Cold War triumphalism, 6, 71; primacy in Asia Pacific, 26, 157, 160–1; racial/ethnic make-up of, 94–6; relations with Soviet Union see Cold War; relative decline of, 170; ‘reverse white flight’ in, 46; technological leap forward (from 1870), 58–9; vanishing class mobility in, 43–6; ‘war on terror’, 80–1, 140, 183; Washington’s ‘deep state’, 133–4 Universal Basic Income (UBI) proposals, 196–7 Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 8–9, 10 Vance, J.D., 108 Venezuela, 82 Versailles Conference (1919), 154 Vienna, Congress of (1814–15), 7 Vietnam, 166 Wallace, George, 113 Walters, Johnnie M., 132 ‘war on terror’, US, 80–1, 140, 183 Warsh, Kevin, 150 Washington Consensus, 29–30, 71, 77, 78–9, 158–9 Washington Post, 132 Weber, Max, 162 welfare systems, 42, 101–3, 191, 198 Western thought: on China, 158–9, 161–2; conceit of primacy of, 4–5, 8–9, 85, 158–9, 162; declining influence of, 200–1; idea of progress, 4, 8, 11–12, 37; modernity concept, 24, 162; non-Western influences on, 24–5; see also democracy, liberal; liberalism, Western WhatsApp, 54 White, Hugh, 25, 158 Wilders, Geert, 102 Wilentz, Sean, 114 Williamson, John, 29 Wilson, Woodrow, 115 Woodward, Bob, 132 Wordsworth, William, 3 World Bank, 84 World Trade Organization (WTO), 26, 72, 149, 150 Wright, Thomas, 180 WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment), 124–5 Xi Jinping, 19–20, 26, 27, 146, 149, 168, 170; and US–China war scenario, 150, 152 Yellen, Janet, 150 Yeltsin, Boris, 78, 79 Young, Michael, 45–6 YouTube, 54 Zakaria, Fareed, 13, 119

The Wires of War: Technology and the Global Struggle for Power by Jacob Helberg

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 2021 United States Capitol attack, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, active measures, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, air gap, Airbnb, algorithmic management, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, bike sharing, Black Lives Matter, blockchain, Boris Johnson, Brexit referendum, cable laying ship, call centre, Cambridge Analytica, Cass Sunstein, cloud computing, coronavirus, COVID-19, creative destruction, crisis actor, data is the new oil, data science, decentralized internet, deep learning, deepfake, deglobalization, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, deplatforming, digital nomad, disinformation, don't be evil, Donald Trump, dual-use technology, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, end-to-end encryption, fail fast, fake news, Filter Bubble, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, geopolitical risk, glass ceiling, global pandemic, global supply chain, Google bus, Google Chrome, GPT-3, green new deal, information security, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, Jeffrey Epstein, John Markoff, John Perry Barlow, knowledge economy, Larry Ellison, lockdown, Loma Prieta earthquake, low earth orbit, low skilled workers, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Mary Meeker, Mikhail Gorbachev, military-industrial complex, Mohammed Bouazizi, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, one-China policy, open economy, OpenAI, Parler "social media", Peter Thiel, QAnon, QR code, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, reshoring, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Russian election interference, Salesforce, Sam Altman, satellite internet, self-driving car, Sheryl Sandberg, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart grid, SoftBank, Solyndra, South China Sea, SpaceX Starlink, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, supply-chain attack, Susan Wojcicki, tech worker, techlash, technoutopianism, TikTok, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, TSMC, Twitter Arab Spring, uber lyft, undersea cable, Unsafe at Any Speed, Valery Gerasimov, vertical integration, Wargames Reagan, Westphalian system, white picket fence, WikiLeaks, Y Combinator, zero-sum game

Department of State, August 31, 2020, https://2017-2021.state.gov/The-United-States-Taiwan-and-the-World-Partners-for-Peace-and-Prosperity/index.html. 77 “Tiffany Introduces Bill to Scrap ‘One China Policy,’ Resume Normal Ties with Taiwan,” Congressman Tom Tiffany, September 17, 2020, https://tiffany.house.gov/media/press-releases/tiffany-introduces-bill-scrap-one-china-policy-resume-normal-ties-taiwan; John Bolton, “Revisit the ‘One-China Policy,’ ” Wall Street Journal, January 16, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/revisit-the-one-china-policy-1484611627. 78 “U.S. Relations With Taiwan,” U.S. Department of State, August 31, 2018, https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/. 79 Richard Haass and David Sacks, “American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous,” Foreign Affairs, September 2, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/american-support-taiwan-must-be-unambiguous. 80 Michèle A.

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Department of Defense, September 2018, https://media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND%20DEFENSE-INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDF. 45 Yichi Zhang, “European Chamber Report Cautions Against the Negative Aspects of China Manufacturing 2025,” European Chamber, March 7, 2017, https://www.europeanchamber.com.cn/en/press-releases/2532. 46 “Attorney General William P. Barr Delivers Remarks on China Policy at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum,” U.S. Department of Justice, July 16, 2020, https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-william-p-barr-delivers-remarks-china-policy-gerald-r-ford-presidential. 47 Xio Cen, Vyacheslav Fos, and Wei Jiang, “A Race to Lead: How Chinese Government Interventions Shape the Sino-US Production Competition,” SSRN, April 15, 2020, https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?

Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order by Bruno Maçães

"World Economic Forum" Davos, active measures, Admiral Zheng, autonomous vehicles, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, cloud computing, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, different worldview, Donald Trump, energy security, European colonialism, eurozone crisis, export processing zone, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global supply chain, global value chain, high-speed rail, industrial cluster, industrial robot, Internet of things, Kenneth Rogoff, land reform, liberal world order, Malacca Straits, middle-income trap, one-China policy, Pearl River Delta, public intellectual, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, subprime mortgage crisis, trade liberalization, trade route, zero-sum game

In September 2017, Sigmar Gabriel, the German vice-chancellor and foreign minister, called on Beijing to respect the concept of “one Europe” adding: “If we do not succeed for example in developing a single strategy towards China, then China will succeed in dividing Europe.” The words were intriguing. They seemed to contain a thinly veiled reference to the “one China policy,” the principle that there is only one country of China, despite the fact that the government in Taiwan also carries that name. Gabriel was wading into dangerous waters. In July 2016, Hungary and Greece fought hard to avoid a direct reference to Beijing in an EU statement about a court ruling that struck down China’s legal claims in the South China Sea.

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INDEX Abbasi, Zafar Mahmood, 126 Abe, Shinzo, 118, 137 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 68 Aden Gulf, 72 Adil, Umer, 60 Advancing the Development of the One Belt, One Road Leading Group, 39 aerospace, 88, 103 Afghanistan, 53, 107, 127, 128, 129, 135, 172 Africa, 3, 8, 25, 44, 124, 163 Djibouti, 4, 12, 46, 63, 67–8, 101, 117 Ethiopia, 46, 68, 154, 170, 186 manufacturing, 68, 77 Maritime Silk Road, 23, 26, 45, 62 oil, 64 Partnership for Quality Infrastructure, 138 piracy, 72 telecommunications, 101, 170–71 aging population, 75 Agricultural Bank of China, 48 agriculture, 11, 61, 76, 99–100, 103 Ahmedabad, Gujarat, 138 aircraft, 81, 91, 103 Akto, Xinjiang, 60 Aktogay, East Kazakhstan, 103 Alibaba, 44 Allison, Graham, 7–8 Alps, 189 aluminum, 17, 20, 88 Andalusia, Spain, 189 Andijan, Uzbekistan, 54 anti-dumping, 92, 113 Antwerp, Flanders, 65 Apollo program, 9 aquaculture, 71 Arabian Sea, 72, 106 Arctic, 4, 62, 66, 188 artificial intelligence (AI), 44, 75, 88 Arunachal Pradesh, India, 111 Asian Development Bank, 45, 137 Asian Financial Forum, 49 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, 48 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 122 Astana International Exchange, 56 Astana, Kazakhstan, 25–6, 39, 56, 58 asteroids, 187 Athens, 8 Atlantic Ocean, 3, 115, 119, 138, 139 Atushi, Xinjiang, 60 Australia, 5, 12, 25, 119, 121, 122, 132–3, 135 automated vehicles, 88, 90, 186, 187, 190 automobile industry, 74, 81, 86, 90–91, 97, 104 Autor, David, 177 aviation, 81, 91, 103 Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), 60 Azerbaijan, 186 Badakhshan, Afghanistan, 128 Baidu, 188 Baldwin, Richard, 74, 80 Balkans, 8, 12, 140 Balochistan, Pakistan, 60, 105 Gwadar port, 46, 59, 61–2, 63, 64, 99–100, 101, 105–7, 117 separatism and terrorism, 106, 127, 128 Baltic Sea, 51 Bangkok, Thailand, 65, 136–7 Bangladesh, 48, 53, 64, 109, 134, 136, 138, 150, 189 Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC), 52, 62 Bank of China, 48 banking, 46–51 bargaining theory, 152–3 Bay of Bengal, 22, 64, 72, 119 Beijing, China, 20, 28, 48, 126, 165 Beijing University, 183, 188 Belgium, 56, 65 Belgrade, Serbia, 143 Belt, see Silk Road Economic Belt Belt and Road Advancing the Development of the One Belt, One Road Leading Group, 39 backlash against, 12, 108, 121–4, 130–46, 155 bridges, 40, 54, 156, 173, 186 Buddhism, 112 cities, 11, 43, 44, 48, 149–52, 187–8 ‘community of shared destiny’, 26–9, 33, 36, 43, 45, 170 connectivity (wu tong), 42, 43, 52–3, 127, 158, 167 currency integration, 26 data, 44 debt, 12, 46, 47, 108, 109, 124, 126, 130, 132, 153–62 digital infrastructure, 43–4, 59, 86 e-commerce, 44, 59 economic corridors, 2, 11, 51–4, 55, 62 economic policy coordination, 28 energy, 11, 17, 19, 20–23, 40, 46, 48, 49, 52, 61, 64, 86, 92, 188 financing, 11, 36, 46–51, 54, 108–9, 124, 126, 130, 132, 138, 141, 153–64 Forum for International Cooperation (2017), 12, 108, 143, 152 impatience, 152–3 inauguration (2013), 11, 17, 23 industrial capacity cooperation, 85–8 industrial parks, 10, 43, 55, 61, 67, 99, 102 infrastructure, see infrastructure internal discontent, 163 international court, 28, 190 loans, 11, 36, 46–7, 54, 108–9, 124, 126, 130, 132, 138, 141, 153–62, 163 maps, 2–6, 24, 41, 64, 69 Maritime Silk Road, 24, 26, 28, 39, 41 market integration, 41 military bases, 12, 67, 71, 72, 101, 117, 126–7 overcapacity, 19 ports, see ports railways, 9–10, 11, 12, 18, 43, 46, 52, 53–4, 68, 86, 122, 130 roads, 9, 19, 40, 43, 52, 54 security, 127–9 Silk Road, 2, 9–10, 23–6, 45, 82, 138 Silk Road Economic Belt, 24, 25–6, 28, 39, 51–62, 83 success, definition of, 164, 174 telecommunications, 43–4, 52, 86, 101, 170–71 timeline, 10 TIR Convention, 55 transnational industrial policy, 81, 84 transport infrastructure, 9–10, 11, 18, 19, 25, 26, 40, 48, 49, 53–4, 83 urban development, 11, 43, 44, 48, 149–52 Vision and Actions document (2015), 40, 41, 45, 49, 50, 52, 62, 67, 78 Vision for Maritime Cooperation (2017), 62 Bering Strait, 66 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), 110 Bhat, Vinayak, 107 Bhutan, 107–8 big data, 44 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, 127 Blackwater, 128 blue economic passage, 62 Boao Forum for Asia (2015), 27, 32 Brahmaputra river, 136 Brazil, 174 Brewster, David, 63 BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), 19, 174 bridges, 40, 54, 156, 173, 186 British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), 188 Budapest, Hungary, 143 Buddhism, 111–12 Bush, George Walker, 169 California, United States, 64 Cambodia, 52, 54, 70, 129, 132, 155 Cameroon, 68, 187 Canada, 136 car industry, see automobile industry Caribbean, 25 Carr, Robert ‘Bob’, 122 Cartagena, Spain, 92 Caspian Sea, 186 Caucasus, 20, 129 CDMA (code-division multiple access), 89 cement, 17, 49–50, 83 Center for Strategic and International Studies, 19, 123 center of gravity, 115 Central African Republic, 186 Central Asia, 9, 20, 25, 51, 52, 82–3, 188 energy, 22, 106 Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), 57–9 India, trade with, 107 industrial capacity cooperation, 104 Islamism, 127 Russia, relations with, 57–9, 129, 133 steel industry, 82–3 terrorism, 127 textile industry, 101 transport infrastructure, 9, 54 Central Huijin Investment, 49, 50 Central Military Commission, 166 century of humiliation (1839–1949), 165, 186 Chabahar, Sistan-Baluchistan, 106–7 Chalay Thay Saath, 60 Chao Phraya River, 65 ChemChina, 48 Chengdu Economic Daily, 129 China Abbasi’s visit (2018), 126 Academy of Information and Communications Technology, 44 aging population, 75 Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, 50 Bishkek Embassy bombing (2016), 127 Boao Forum for Asia (2015), 27, 32 Buddhism, 111–12 century of humiliation (1839–1949), 165, 186 Doklam plateau dispute, 107–8, 113 energy, see energy EU-China summit (2015), 138 five-year plan (2016–20), 41 Food and Drug Administration, 114 Foreign Policy Center of the Central Party School, 7 Gants Mod crossing closure (2016), 36 General Navigation Office, 69 ‘Going Out’ strategy, 86 Guangxi Nonferrous Metals Group bankruptcy (2016), 16 Guiding Opinion on Promoting International Industrial Capacity (2015), 86 Guiding Opinion on Standardizing the Direction of Overseas Investment (2017), 86 incremental approach, 7 Indian Dilemma, 21 Institute of International Studies, 92 International Trust and Investment Corporation, 132 Investment Corporation, 48 keeping a low profile (tao guang yang hui), 15, 18, 32 labour shortages, 75 Macron’s visit (2018), 146–7 Made in China 2025 strategy, 85, 87, 90–92, 93 Malacca Dilemma, 21–2, 64, 131 Merchants, 68–9 middle-income trap, 75–7, 85 migrant workers, 75 military, 12, 13, 59, 67, 71, 72, 101, 117, 126–7 minimum wage, 75 Ministry of Commerce, 21, 40, 93 Ministry of Communications, 69 Ministry of Finance, 49 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 40 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 19 Ministry of Transportation, 14 Modi–Xi summit (2018), 135 National Bureau of Statistics, 75 National Congress, 28, 29, 44, 165, 181 National Cybersecurity Work Conference (2018), 84 National Development and Reform Commission, 40, 98 National Health Commission, 114 Opium War, First (1839–1842), 165 overcapacity, 16, 19–20, 88 Overseas Chinese Affairs Office, 19 Overseas Investment Industrial Guiding Policy, 86 People’s Navigation Company, 69 Ports-Park-City model, 67 presidential term limits repeal (2018), 164, 174 real estate market, 16, 75 reform and opening up, 13–15, 73 renminbi, 22–3, 159 responsible stakeholder, 169 shipbuilding, 14, 17 soft power, 111, 170 Soviet Union, relations with, 13, 14, 15 State Administration of Foreign Exchange, 48 State Council, 19, 39, 40, 49, 66, 86 state-owned companies, 42, 153, 160–61, 189 steel industry, 16–17, 18, 20, 82–4, 86, 88 striving for achievement, 18 Swaraj’s visit (2018), 135 Taiwan, relations with, 14, 26, 142 technology transfers, 85–92, 97, 177–8 Thucydides’ trap, 8 Tianxia, 26–7, 29, 31–5, 78, 79, 192–3 TIR Convention, 55 Trump’s visit (2017), 124 ‘two heads abroad’ (liangtou zai haiwai), 17 United States, relations with, see Sino–US relations Working Conference on Neighborhood Policy (2013), 17–18 China Construction Bank, 48 China Development Bank, 16, 48, 49, 97, 98, 99, 103, 160 China Export & Credit Insurance Corp, 104 China Export-Import Bank, 46, 47, 48, 49, 103, 154 China Fantasy, The (Mann), 177 China Global Television Network, 188 China Nonferrous Metals Industry Group, 103 China Three Gorges Corp, 48 China-Indian Ocean-Africa-Mediterranean Sea Blue Economic Passage, 62 China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor, 51, 52, 54, 62 China-Oceania-South Pacific, 62 China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), 52, 59, 60, 62, 105–7, 108 Chinese Communist Party Advancing the Development of the One Belt, One Road Leading Group, 39 and Australia, 133 Constitution, 41, 164 founding of (1921), 165 National Congress, 18th (2012), 28 National Congress, 19th (2017), 29, 44, 165, 181 and New Zealand, 132 Politburo, 39, 40, 165 reform and opening up, 13–15 and steel industry, 16 Third Plenum of the 18th Party Central Committee (2013), 39 Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, 106 Christianity, 128 Churchill, Winston, 183 cities, 11, 43, 44, 48, 149–52, 187–8 climate change, 4, 66, 85, 171 Clinton, William ‘Bill’, 177 cloud computing, 44 CloudWalk Technology, 44 Club Med, 189 CNN, 188 cobalt, 81, 104 Cold War, 2, 14, 21–2, 36, 40, 125, 171 Colombo, Sri Lanka, 156, 162 colonialism, 120, 162 ‘community of shared destiny’, 26–9, 33, 36, 43, 45, 135, 170 Confucianism, 31, 34 Congo, Democratic Republic of, 81, 104 connectivity, 42, 43, 52–3, 109, 122, 127, 146, 158, 167 Connectivity Platform, 139 construction, 18, 75, 86, 98 convergence, 4, 14, 166, 167, 169, 174, 177 copper, 103, 104 corridors, see economic corridors corruption, 133, 155–6, 158, 187 cosmopolitan neighborhoods, 4 Country Garden, 151 Cowboys and Indians, 188 cultural exchanges, 42, 43, 56–7 currency, 22–3, 26, 159–60 customs cooperation, 55, 57, 59, 63 Cyprus, 140 Dalai Lama, 36, 112 Dalian, Liaoning, 55, 93 Daming Palace, Xi’an, 147 Dangal, 111 data, 44 Davidson, Phillip, 125–6 Davos, Switzerland, 168 Dawn of Eurasia, The (Maçães), 185, 191 Dawood, Abdul Razak, 158 debt, 12, 16, 46, 47, 108, 109, 124, 126, 130, 132, 153–62 democracy, 125, 133, 166, 171, 172, 174, 175, 176, 181–3 Democratic Republic of Congo, 81, 104 Deng Xiaoping, 13–15, 18, 31, 32, 69, 73, 183 Diaoyu Islands, 187 digital infrastructure, 43–4 division of labor, 53, 78, 79, 80 Djibouti, 4, 12, 46, 63, 67–8, 101, 117, 186 Doklam plateau, 107–8, 113 Doraleh, Djibouti, 63, 67–8 DP World, 68 dry ports, 57 Dubai, UAE, 62, 68, 160 Dudher Zinc project, 127 Duterte, Rodrigo, 156 DVD (digital versatile disc), 89 e-commerce, 44, 59 East China Sea, 118 economic corridors, 2, 11, 51–4, 55 economic nationalism, 102 economic policy coordination, 28 Economist, The, 190 Egypt, 101 electric cars, 81, 104 electricity, 40, 46, 49, 52, 61, 98, 156, 188 end of history, 36 energy, 4, 11, 17, 19, 20–23, 48, 49, 82, 86, 92, 188 electricity, 40, 46, 49, 52, 61, 98, 156, 188 gas, 21, 22, 40, 52, 64, 72, 106 hydropower, 48 oil, 21, 22, 23, 40, 52, 64, 72, 106 renewable, 21, 187, 188 English language, 111, 188 Enhanced Mobile Broadband coding scheme, 89 Enlightenment, 193 environmental sustainability, 75 Erenhot, Inner Mongolia, 55 Ethiopia, 46, 68, 154, 170, 186 Eurasia, 1–5, 11, 20, 26, 45, 52, 57, 63, 120, 121, 138 Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), 57–9 Eurasian Resources Group, 103 European Commission, 143, 145 European empires, 120–21 European Union (EU), 5, 29, 57, 58, 138–47, 159, 176, 179 and Belt and Road, 10, 12, 30, 138–47 Connecting Europe and Asia strategy (2018), 145–6 and Djibouti, 67 economic policy coordination, 28 5G mobile networks, 43 immigration, 187 steel industry, 17 tariffs, 83 technology transfers, 87–8, 178 transnational framework, 81 Turkey, relations with, 4 Export-Import Bank of China, 46, 47, 48, 49, 103, 154 exports, 15, 17, 19, 79 Facebook, 188 facial recognition, 44, 190 fashion industry, 101 fate, 34 Fergana Valley, 54 fertilizers, 19 fibre-optic connectivity, 101 fifth generation (5G) mobile networks, 43–4, 89 finance, 11, 36, 46–51, 54, 126, 138, 141, 153–64 Financial Times, 10, 63, 143, 154, 157, 158, 159 five-year plan (2016–20), 41 Folding Beijing (Hao), 150 food imports, 76 foreign direct investment, 46, 144–6 foreign exchange, 16, 94, 153 Forest City, Johor, 149–51, 155 France, 11, 96, 129, 141, 144, 146–7, 189 free and open order, 125 free-trade zones, 11, 42, 55–6, 71 freedoms of speech, 172, 189 French Foreign Legion, 129 French, Howard, 13 Frontier Services Group, 128–9 Fu Chen, 129 Fu Ying, 140 Fukuyama, Francis, 184–5 Gabon, 96 Gabriel, Sigmar, 142 Gang of Four, 14 Gants Mod crossing closure (2016), 36 gas, 21, 22, 40, 52, 64, 72, 106 General Navigation Office, 69 generic drugs, 114 Genghis Khan, 2, 25 Georgia, 58 Germany, 11, 65, 80, 87–8, 90, 100, 141–2, 144, 189 ghost ships, 186 Gibraltar, 92 Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan, 54, 60, 108 Gland Pharma, 113 glass, 17, 83 Global Energy Interconnection, 188 global financial crisis (2008), 16–17, 85, 161, 178 Global Infrastructure Center, 190 Global Times, 67, 109, 131 global value chain revolution, 74 global warming, 4, 66, 85 globalization, 19, 28, 66, 78, 102, 124, 144, 168, 174, 192 ‘Going Out’ strategy, 86 good governance, 183–4 Google, 152, 188 Goubet, Djibouti, 67 government procurement, 12, 59 Grand Palace, Bangkok, 65 Grand Trunk Road, 53 Greece, 30, 31, 65, 140, 141, 142 GSM (Global System for Mobile communications), 89 Guangdong, China, 28, 75, 151 Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group, 67 Guangxi Nonferrous Metals Group, 16 Guiding Opinion on Promoting International Industrial Capacity (2015), 86 Guiding Opinion on Standardizing the Direction of Overseas Investment (2017), 86 Guo Chu, 33 Gwadar, Balochistan, 46, 59, 61–2, 63, 64, 99–100, 101, 105–7, 117 Hainan, China, 71 Hambantota, Sri Lanka, 46–7, 63, 64, 68, 117, 162 Hamburg, Germany, 65 Hamilton, Clive, 133 Han Empire (206 BC–220 AD), 25 Hao Jingfang, 150 ‘harmonious world’, 33, 36 Havelian, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 54 He Yafei, 19, 168 heavy industry, 75, 82 Hebei, China, 83 Heilongjiang, China, 55 Hesteel, 83 high-speed railways, 18, 53–4, 83, 89, 98, 122, 130, 137, 138, 143, 186–7 highways, see roads Hillman, Jonathan, 8 Hobbes, Thomas, 27 Holslag, Jonathan, 189 Hong Kong, 49, 103 Hongshi Holding Group, 49 Horgos, Xinjiang, 55, 55–6, 57 Horn of Africa, 3 Hu Huaibang, 49, 97 Hu Jintao, 21, 33, 70 Hu Xiaolian, 154 Huang Libin, 19 Huangyan Island, 187 Huawei, 89–90, 101, 171 Hub, Balochistan, 127 hukou (household registration), 76 human rights, 141–2, 170, 171, 189 Hun Sen, 155 Hungary, 30, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144 Huntington, Samuel, 184 Hussain, Chaudhry Fawad, 157 hydropower, 48 Ibrahim Ismail, Sultan of Johor, 151 immigration, 187 impatience, 152–3 imports, 17, 19, 22, 79–84 India and the Indian Ocean (Panikkar), 118 India, 3, 5, 64, 105–25, 134–6, 174, 179 Bangladesh Liberation War (1971), 109 and Belt and Road, 11, 12, 52, 72, 105–15, 130, 133 Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (2017), 12, 108 British Raj (1858–1947), 107 Buddhism, 111–12 cosmopolitan neighborhoods, 4 cultural mission to China (1952), 113 Doklam plateau dispute, 107–8, 113 economic autarchy, 110, 117 free and open order, 125 Grand Trunk Road, 53 imports, 113–14 and Indian Ocean, 3, 116–19 Indo-Pacific, 116–23, 125 Japan, relations with, 118 Kashmir dispute, 108–9, 117 Malabar naval exercises (2018), 135 and maritime hegemony, 72 migrant workers, 150 military bases, 3, 131 Modi–Xi summit (2018), 135 Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed railway, 138 nuclear tests (1998), 109 Pakistan, relations with, 105–7, 108–9, 117, 134 pharmaceuticals, 113, 114 Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, 121–2 Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), 105–6 and Sabang Island, 131 Siliguri Corridor, 107–8 Southeast Asia, 113, 117–18 Swaraj’s visit to China (2018), 135 Tibet, relations with, 111–12, 117, 136 United States, relations with, 119, 121–2, 134, 135 Indian Dilemma, 21 Indian Ocean, 3, 8, 9, 26, 51, 62, 63, 66, 68, 71–2, 116–19 Indo-Pacific, 116–23, 125, 126 and Japan, 4 Kra Isthmus canal proposal, 65, 186 meticulous selection, 72 Myanmar oil and gas pipeline, 64, 72 oil, 21, 64 and Pakistan, 59, 61, 64 individualism, 27, 189 Indo-Pacific, 116–23, 125, 126 Indo-Pacific Business Forum, 122 Indo-Pacific Command, US, 126 Indochina, 51, 52, 54, 62 Indonesia, 2, 5, 18, 26, 39, 48, 83, 117, 131 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, 48, 49, 103 industrial capacity cooperation, 85–8, 98, 102–4 industrial internet, 44 industrial parks, 10, 43, 55, 61, 67, 99, 102 Industrial Revolution, 84 information technology, 43–4, 74, 81, 86, 90, 94, 111, 170–71, 190 infrastructure, 3, 23, 26, 30, 40–45, 48, 50, 55, 58, 63, 86, 88, 124, 139, 141, 162, 167, 186 Afghanistan, 135 communications, 81, 118 digital, 43–4 European Union, 10, 141, 145 India, 64, 118, 135 Japan, 4, 136–8 Maritime Silk Road, 66, 67 Mediterranean, 65 Pakistan, 54, 62, 99, 105 Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, 121–2 Southeast Asia, 18–19, 70, 117, 130, 132 steel industry, 18 transportation, see transportation value chains, 96 Xinjiang, 20, 54 Inner Mongolia, China, 55 innovation, 76 Institute for International Finance, 153 intellectual property, 59, 88–9, 91, 97, 180, 190 international courts, 28, 190 international industrial capacity cooperation, 85–8, 98, 102–4 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 15, 156–7, 158–9, 172 Internet, 43–4, 86, 170–71 internet of things, 90, 94 Iran, 4, 22, 105–6 Iraq, 24 Irkeshtam, Xinjiang, 55 iron, 17 Islamabad, Pakistan, 60, 99, 101, 127, 157 Islamic State, 128 Islamism, 127–9 Istanbul, Turkey, 4, 24, 65 Italy, 48, 65, 140, 189 Izumi, Hiroto, 137 Jadhav, Kulbhushan, 105–6 Jakarta, Indonesia, 2, 5, 26, 39 Japan, 1, 5, 22, 123, 133, 136–8, 145, 165, 166, 169, 189 Buddhism, 111 Cold War, 21–2 India, relations with, 118 Indian Ocean, 4 infrastructure development, 4, 136–8 Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, 121–2 Second World War (1937–45), 119, 165 Javaid, Nadeem, 46 Jiang Qing, 14 Jiang Shigong, 183–4 Jiang Zemin, 15 Jiangsu Delong, 83 Jin Qi, 98 Jinnah Town, Quetta, 128 Johor, Malaysia, 149–51 Joint Statement on Cooperation on EEU and Silk Road Projects (2015), 57–8 joint ventures, 97 Journey to the West, 186, 188 Juncker, Jean-Claude, 138 Kaeser, Joe 170 Karachi, Sindh, 59, 100, 105, 106, 127 Karakoram Highway, 54, 60, 64 Kashgar, Xinjiang, 54, 59, 60, 64, 101 Kashmir, 60, 108–9, 117 Katanga, Democratic Republic of Congo, 104 Kaz Minerals 103 Kazakhstan, 8, 55–9, 129, 189 Astana International Exchange, 56 China–EEU free-trade agreement signing (2018), 58 and Eurasian Economic Union, 57 gateway to Europe, 56 Horgos International Cooperation Center, 55–6 industrial capacity cooperation, 103–4 railways, 54 Xi’s speech (2013), 23, 25–6, 39 Kazakhstan Aluminum, 103 keeping a low profile (tao guang yang hui), 15, 18, 32 Kenya, 101, 138, 171 Khan, Imran, 157–8 Khawar, Hasaan, 53 Khunjerab Pass, 101 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, 54, 60, 100 Kizilsu Kirghiz, Xinjiang, 60 knowledge, 74, 76, 87 Kolkata, West Bengal, 64 Kortunov, Andrey, 135 kowtow, 35 Kra Isthmus, Thailand, 65, 186 Kuala Linggi Port, Malacca, 63 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 130 Kuantan, Pahang, 63, 67 Kudaibergen, Dimash, 57 Kunming, Yunnan, 188 Kyaukpyu, Rakhine, 63, 64, 132, 154 Kyrgyzstan, 53, 54, 55, 103, 127 labor costs, 74, 83, 85, 99 labor shortages, 75 Lagarde, Christine, 158–9 Lahore, Punjab, 100, 157 Laos, 50, 52, 54, 129, 132 Latin America, 25, 187, 188 Leifeld Metal Spinning AG, 88 Lenin, Vladimir, 6, 78 Lenovo, 89–90 Li Hongzhang, 69 Li Keqiang, 44 Li Ruogu, 47 Liaoning, China, 55 liberal values, 123, 125, 133, 170 liberal world order, 141, 144, 167–86, 190, 192 Lighthizer, Robert, 91 lignite, 61 liquefied natural gas (LNG), 48, 66 Lisbon, Portugal, 2, 5 lithium-ion batteries, 81 Liu Chuanzhi, 89–90 Liu He, 92 loans, 11, 36, 46–7, 54, 108–9, 124, 126, 130, 132, 138, 141, 153–63, 190 London, England, 65, 160 Lord of the Rings, The (Tolkien), 1 Lou Jiwei, 76 Luo Jianbo, 7 Machiavelli, Niccolò, 31–4 machinery, 81, 90, 98, 156 Mackinder, Halford, 120 Macron, Emmanuel, 146–7 Made in China 2025 strategy, 85, 87, 90–92, 93 Mahan, Alfred, 120 Mahathir Mohamad, 130–31, 151, 155 Malabar naval exercises (2018), 135 Malacca, Malaysia, 3, 63 Malacca Strait, 21–2, 64, 65, 72, 117, 131 Malay Mail, 155 Malaysia, 3, 70, 117, 130–31, 154 debt, 154 Forest City, 149–51, 155 high-speed railways, 54, 130 Mahathir government (2018–), 130–31, 151, 155 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal (2015–), 155 ports, 63, 67 Maldives, 134, 155 Mali, 129 Malik, Ashok, 109 Malta, 140 Mandarin, 107, 149, 188 Manila, Philippines, 122 Mann, James, 177 manufacturing, 11, 19, 68, 77, 85, 99 outsourcing, 68, 99 value chains, 3, 43, 64, 73–4, 79–82, 84–5, 94–104, 141 Manzhouli, Inner Mongolia, 55 Mao Zedong, 13–14, 31, 183 maps, 2–6, 24, 41, 64, 69 Maritime Silk Road, 24, 26, 28, 39, 41, 53, 62–72, 117 market integration, 41 Mars, 187 Marshall Plan, 40 Marx, Karl, 6 Marxism, 78 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 177 Matarbari port, Bangladesh, 138 matchmaking services, 11 Mattis, James, 124 McMahon Line, 111 Mediterranean Sea, 4, 51, 62, 65, 119 Mei Xinyu, 21 Mekong Delta, 8 mergers and acquisitions, 42 Merkel, Angela, 88, 141, 144 meticulous selection, 72 Middle East, 4, 6, 22, 64, 120, 129, 163, 171 middle-income trap, 75–7, 85 migrant workers, 75 Milanovic, Branko, 173 military, 3, 12, 67, 71, 72, 101, 117, 126–7 Ming Empire (1368–1644), 163 Ming Hao, 30 minimum wage, 75 Ministry of Commerce, 21, 40, 93 Ministry of Communications, 69 Ministry of Finance, 49 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 40 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 19 Ministry of Transportation, 14 Minmetals International Trust Co, 16 mobile payments, 193 Modi, Narendra, 106, 135–6 Mohan, Raja, 3, 121 Mombasa, Kenya, 138 Mongol Empire (1206–1368), 2, 25 Mongolia, 8, 36, 52, 55, 111 Moon, 187 Moraes, Frank, 112–13 Moscow, Russia, 4 Most Favored Nation status, 15 Mozambique, 138 multinationals, 74, 88–9 multipolar world system, 179 Mumbai, Maharashtra, 4, 105, 138 Myanmar, 52, 54, 63, 64, 72, 129, 132, 138, 154 Nacala, Nampula, 138 narcotics trade, 127 Nathan, Andrew, 159 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 9 National Bureau of Statistics, 75 National Congress 18th (2012), 28 19th (2017), 29 National Cybersecurity Work Conference (2018), 84 National Development and Reform Commission, 40, 98 National Health Commission, 114 National League for Democracy, Myanmar, 132 National Museum of China, Beijing, 165, 166 National Party of New Zealand, 132 National People’s Congress, 44 National Rescue Party of Cambodia, 155 Nazarbayev University, 25–6 Nehru, Jawaharlal, 113 Nepal, 134, 135, 150 Netherlands, 56, 65 New Zealand, 132–3 Nigeria, 68 Ning Jizhe, 137 Nordin, Astrid, 42 Northern Sea Route, 66 Northwest Passage, 66 NPK fertilizer, 99 nuclear power/weapons, 21, 83, 88, 109, 166, 187 oil, 21, 22, 23, 40, 52, 64, 72, 106 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal (2015–), 155 One China policy, 142 Open Times, 183 Opium War, First (1839–1842), 165 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 79 Osh, Kyrgyzstan, 54 overcapacity, 16, 19–20, 88 Overseas Chinese Affairs Office, 19 Overseas Investment Industrial Guiding Policy, 86 Pacific Command, US, 125–6 Pacific Journal, 71 Pacific Ocean, 3, 5, 9, 26, 45, 62, 116, 117, 125–6, 139 Indo-Pacific, 116–23, 125, 126 Pakistan, 12, 20, 46, 48, 52, 59–62, 64, 98–102, 105, 126–9, 133–4, 155, 156–8 Abbasi’s Beijing visit (2018), 126 agriculture, 99–100 balance of payments crisis, 156–8 Economic Corridor, 52, 59, 60, 62, 105, 108, 156–8 electricity production, 61 fibre-optic connectivity, 101 gateway to the Indian Ocean, 59 Grand Trunk Road, 53 Gwadar port, 46, 59, 61–2, 63, 64, 99–100, 101, 105–7, 117 hydropower, 48 IMF loans, 156–7 India, relations with, 105–7, 108–9, 117, 134 investment, 48 Jadhav arrest (2016), 105–6 Karakoram Highway, 54, 60, 64 Kashmir dispute, 108–9 loans, 46, 54, 156–8 manufacturing, 99 safe city project, 101 Tehreek-e-Insaf, 157–8 television, 101 terrorism, 106, 127–8, 135 textiles, 100 Thar desert, 61 value chains, 98–102 Pakistan-East Africa Cable Express, 101 Pandjaitan, Luhut, 131 Panikkar, Kavalam Madhava, 118 Pantucci, Raffaello, 134 Partnership for Quality Infrastructure, 137–8 patents, 88–9, 190 Pavlodar, Kazakhstan, 103 Peak Pegasus, 93 Pearl River Delta, China, 152 Peking University, 183, 188 Penang, Malaysia, 63 People’s Daily, 57 People’s Liberation Army (PLA), 32, 169 People’s Navigation Company, 69 Pericles, 8 Persian Gulf, 51, 64, 72 Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 100 petcoke, 103 Petrochina, 103 pharmaceuticals, 113, 114 Phaya Thai Station, Bangkok, 137 Philippines, 19, 70, 117, 122, 156 philosophy, 40, 183 Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 70 phosphate, 19 piracy, 72 Piraeus, Greece, 65 Pirelli, 48 Plato, 150 Poland, 58, 140 Polar Silk Road, 66 Politburo, 39, 40, 165 political correctness, 182 Polo, Marco, 2, 10 Polonnaruwa, Sri Lanka, 156 Pompeo, Michael, 122–3, 157 ports, 9, 10, 12, 19, 36, 40, 46–7, 57, 63–5, 67–9, 96 Chabahar, Iran, 106–7 Doraleh, Djibouti, 63, 67–8 Gwadar, Pakistan, 46, 59, 61–2, 63, 64, 99–100, 101, 117 Hambantota, Sri Lanka, 46–7, 63, 64, 68, 117, 162 Kuala Linggi, Malaysia, 63 Kuantan, Malaysia, 63, 67 Kyaukpyu, Myanmar, 63, 64, 132, 154 Mediterranean, 65 Mombasa, Kenya, 138 Nacala, Mozambique, 138 Penang, Malaysia, 63 Ports-Park-City model, 67 Portugal, 2, 3, 5, 140, 163 power, see energy Prince, Erik, 128–9 property bubbles, 75 protectionism, 102, 114 public procurement, 12, 59 Punjab, Pakistan, 60, 99, 100, 157 Putin, Vladimir, 3, 57 Pyrenees, 189 Qing Empire (1636–1912), 107, 178 Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, 121–2 Qualcomm, 89 Quetta, Balochistan, 128 Raikot, Gilgit-Baltistan, 54 railways, 9–10, 11, 12, 18, 43, 52, 53–4, 57, 68, 83, 86, 89, 98, 100, 135 Addis Ababa–Djibouti, 46, 68 Bangkok–Chiang Mai, 137 Belgrade–Budapest, 143 Djibouti–Yaoundé, 68, 186–7 Islamabad–Gwadar, 60 Kashgar–Andijan, 54 Kuala Lumpur–Singapore, 130 Lahore overhead, 157 Mumbai–Ahmedabad, 138 United States, 122 Yunnan–Southeast Asia, 54 Rawat, Bipin, 108 RB Eden, 92 real estate market, 16, 75 reciprocity, 178–80 Red Sea, 72 reform and opening up, 13–15, 73 Ren Zhengfei, 90 Renaissance, 7 renewable energy, 21, 187, 188 Renmin University, 106 renminbi, 22–3, 159 Rennie, David, 190 Republic (Plato), 150 Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), 105–6 responsible stakeholder, 169 Rio Tinto, 36 Road Towards Renewal exhibition (2012), 165 Road, see Maritime Silk Road roads, 9, 19, 40, 43, 52, 54, 55, 57, 67, 107–8 robotics, 75, 88, 90 Rogin, Josh, 122 Rolland, Nadège, 188, 190 Ross, Wilbur, 92 Rotterdam, South Holland, 65 Ruan Zongze, 92 rule of law, 28, 109, 111, 183–4 Russia, 5, 51, 52, 55, 133, 134, 139, 174, 175–6, 180, 181 and Central Asia, 57–9, 129, 133 energy, 22, 23 Eurasian Economic Union, 57–9 Eurasianism, 3–4 Joint Statement on Cooperation on EEU and Silk Road Projects (2015), 57–8 Pacific Fleet, 118 and renminbi internationalization, 23 Soviet era, see under Soviet Union steel industry, 82 Ukraine crisis (2013–), 176 Western values, rejection of, 175, 180, 181 Yamal LNG project, 48, 66 Sabang, Indonesia, 131 safe cities, 101, 171 salt, 67, 71 San Francisco, California, 151–2 Saravan, Sistan-Baluchistan, 105 Sargsyan, Tigran, 59 Sassanian Empire (224–651), 4 satellites, 187 second unbundling, 74 Second World War (1939–45), 165 self-driving vehicles, 88, 90, 186, 187, 190 Serbia, 83, 143 Set Aung, U, 132 Shandong University, 163 Shanghai, China, 2, 20, 92 Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 136 Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, 113 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, 16 Shanghai Stock Exchange, 50, 56, 103 Sharif, Nawaz, 133–4 sharp power, 170 sheet glass, 17, 83 Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, 16 Shenzhen, Guangdong, 28, 151 shipbuilding, 14, 17, 81, 186 Sichuan, China, 149 Siemens, 170 silicon dioxide, 103 Siliguri Corridor, India, 107–8 Silk Road, 2, 9–10, 23–6, 45, 53, 82, 138 Silk Road Economic Belt, 24, 25–6, 28, 39, 51–62, 83 Silk Road Fund, 48, 56, 98 silk, 23–4 Sindh, Pakistan, 59, 60, 99, 100, 101, 105, 106, 127 Singapore, 54, 77, 92, 119, 130, 150, 151, 160 Sino–Myanmar oil and gas pipeline, 64, 72 Sino–US relations, 116, 119, 121–6, 136, 179–80 and Belt and Road, 5–6, 11, 12, 15, 72, 121–4, 130, 136, 168 and Cold War, 14 and foreign exchange reserves, 16 and Indo-Pacific, 116, 119, 121–3, 125, 126 and Kra Isthmus canal proposal, 65 and Malacca Dilemma, 21–2, 64 and maritime hegemony, 70, 72 and Most Favored Nation status, 15 and Pakistan, 157 and reciprocity, 179–80 and reform and opening up, 14–15 and renminbi internationalization, 23 and South China Sea, 70 and steel, 17 Strategic and Economic Dialogue, 39 and Taiwan, 14 and tariffs, 83, 90–94 and technology transfers, 90–92, 178 Thucydides’ trap, 8 and trade deficit, 90, 92 trade war, 92–4, 173 war, potential for, 5, 8, 13, 14 Yangtze River patrols (1854–1937), 165 and ZTE, 94 Sirisena, Maithripala, 155–6 Sistan-Baluchistan, Iran, 105, 106–7 SLJ900/32, 54 Small, Andrew, 59, 158 smart cities, 44, 151–2 Smederevo, Serbia, 83 soft power, 111, 170 solar power, 187, 188 Somalia, 72 Somersault Cloud, 186 sorghum, 92 South Africa, 101 South America, 25, 187, 188 South China Sea, 21, 62, 65, 69–71, 118, 142, 170, 179 South Korea, 1, 77, 96, 97, 128 South Sudan, 186 Southeast Asia, 6, 8, 12, 18, 100, 131–2, 189 Buddhism, 111 China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor, 51, 52, 54, 62 Indo–Chinese relations, 113, 117–18 Kra Isthmus canal proposal, 65, 186 Maritime Silk Road, 26 phosphate market, 19 South China Sea dispute, 21, 69–71, 142, 170, 179 textile industry, 100 Soviet Union, 1, 13, 14, 15, 21–2, 57, 104 soybeans, 90, 93 space travel, 187 Spain, 92, 140, 189 Sparta, 8 Sri Lanka, 12, 46–7, 63, 64, 68, 89, 117, 134, 155–6, 162 Hambantota port, 46–7, 63, 64, 68, 117, 162 Sirisena’s grant announcement (2018), 156 standards, 89–90 State Administration of Foreign Exchange, 48 State Council, 19, 39, 40, 49, 66, 86 state-owned companies, 42, 153, 160–61, 189 steamships, 69 steel industry, 16–17, 18, 20, 67, 82–4, 86, 88 striving for achievement, 18 Stuenkel, Oliver, 167 subprime mortgage crisis (2007–10), 153 Suez Canal, 3, 66, 68, 72, 119 Suifenhe Port, Heilongjiang, 55 Sukkur, Sindh, 99, 101 Sulawesi, Indonesia, 83 Sumatra, Indonesia, 3 Sun Pharmaceuticals, 114 Sun Wenguang, 163 Surkov, Vladislav, 3–4 surveillance, 44, 101, 171, 187, 190 Suvarnabhumi Airport, Bangkok, 137 Swamy, Subramanian, 110 Swaraj, Sushma, 135 Switzerland, 160, 168 Syria, 24 Tadjoura gulf, Djibouti, 67 taikonauts, 187 Taiwan, 14, 142 Tajikistan, 48, 127 Tanjung Pelepas Johor, 150 Tanzania, 138 tao guang yang hui, 15, 18, 32 Taoism, 11, 51 tariffs, 17, 56, 58, 79, 82, 83, 179 Tawang Monastery, Arunachal Pradesh, 111 tax holidays, 61 TBM Slurry, 54 technology transfers, 85–92, 97, 118, 177–8 Tehreek-e-Insaf, 157–8 telecommunications, 43–4, 52, 86, 89–90, 98, 101, 170–71 television, 101 terrorism, 106, 127–9, 135, 171 Texas, United States, 92 textiles, 86, 100–101 Thailand, 18, 54, 65, 83, 89, 129, 132, 136–7, 186 Thakot, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 54 Thar desert, 61 Thein Sein, 132 Thilawa special economic zone, Myanmar, 138 throw-money diplomacy, 163 Thucydides’ trap, 8 Tianjin, China, 129 Tianxia, 26–7, 29, 31–5, 78, 79, 192–3 Tibet, 36, 111–12, 117, 136, 189 Tibetan Academy of Buddhism, 112 Tillerson, Rex, 11, 123, 125 timber, 96 Times of India, 109 Tinbergen, Jan, 20 TIR (Transports Internationaux Routiers) Convention, 55 titanium dioxide, 103 Tokyo, Japan, 137 Tolkien, John Ronald Reuel, 1 tourism, 10, 11, 61, 71 trade wars, 92–4, 113–14, 173 trains, 9–10, 11, 12, 18, 43, 46 Trans-Siberian railway, 10 Transatlantic trade, 3, 139 transnational industrial policy, 81, 84 Transpacific trade, 3, 139 transparency, 12, 28, 109, 143, 144, 146, 157, 173, 193 Transpolar Route, 66 transportation, 9–10, 19, 25–6, 48–9, 52–4, 63–4, 81–3, 99, 103, 104, 118, 143, 162, 186 maritime, 63 railways, see railways roads, 9, 19, 40, 43, 52, 54, 55, 57, 67, 107–8 tributary system, 34–5 Trieste, Italy, 65 Trump, Donald, 83, 91, 93, 122, 124, 167, 179 Tsinghua University, 76, 163 Tsingshan Group Holdings, 83 Tumshuq, Xinjiang, 60 Turkey, 4, 24, 65, 82 Turkmenistan, 186 Twitter, 188 ‘two heads abroad’ (liangtou zai haiwai), 17 Ukraine, 11, 82, 176 United Arab Emirates, 62, 68, 160 United Kingdom, 2, 3, 17, 43, 65, 107, 112, 160, 165, 189, 193 United Nations, 29, 55, 72, 142, 172 United States, 1–2, 5–7, 8, 11, 12, 121–6, 161, 166–9, 176, 185–6 Apollo program, 9 Bush administration (2001–9), 169 Camp Lemonnier Djibouti, 68 China, relations with, see Sino–US relations Clinton administration (1992–2001), 177 Cold War, 14 immigration, 187 India, relations with, 119, 121–2, 134, 135 industrial output per person, 193 and International Monetary Fund (IMF), 157 Marshall Plan, 40 midterm elections (2018), 12–13 National Defense Strategy (2018), 116 National Security Strategy (2017), 179–80 Pacific Command, 125–6 Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, 121–2 Senate Armed Services Committee, 124 State Department, 123–4 steel industry, 17 subprime mortgage crisis (2007–10), 153 Taiwan, relations with, 14 Trump administration (2017–), 83, 90–94, 122–4, 167, 179 universal values, 175, 181, 184 Urdu, 128 Urumqi, Xinjiang, 20, 101, 188 Uyghurs, 20 Uzbekistan, 53, 54, 129 value chains, 3, 43, 64, 73–4, 79–82, 84–5, 94–104, 141 vanadium pentoxide, 103 Venice, Veneto, 65 Vietnam, 19, 54, 70, 100, 117, 132 Vision and Actions document (2015), 40, 41, 45, 49, 50, 52, 67, 78 Vision for Maritime Cooperation (2017), 62 Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai, 118 Wakhan corridor, Afghanistan, 128 Wallerstein, Immanuel, 78 Wang Changyu, 112 Wang Huning, 40 Wang Jisi, 31, 76 Wang Yang, 39 Wang Yi, 40, 60, 123 Wang Yingyao, 50–51 Wang Yiwei, 26 Wang Zhaoxing, 50 Warsaw, Poland, 140 Washington Post, 122 Wei Fenghe, 126 Weibo, 188 Weissmann, Mikael, 42 Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 83 West Asia corridor, 51, 52 West Germany (1949–90), 22, 166 Western world, 5, 30, 31, 165–86, 190–93 Asia-Pacific region, 13 Cold War, 1, 2 cultural imperialism, 28 democracy, 125, 133, 166, 171, 172, 174, 176, 181–3 end of history, 36 global financial crisis (2008), 16–17, 161 individualism, 27, 189 liberal world order, 141, 144, 167–86, 190, 192 Machiavellianism, 31–4 market economies, 16 Marxism, 78 polis, 31 rule of law, 183 rules-based order, 11, 35, 179 separation of powers, 182 soft power, 111 standards, 89 technology, 15, 87, 177–8 telecommunications, 101 and Tianxia, 30–34, 78, 192 value chains, 95, 96, 100, 104 values, 123, 125, 133, 167, 175, 177–8 white elephants, 51 Wickremesinghe, Ranil, 47 win-win, 27–8, 33, 37 wind power, 188 Witness to an Era (Moraes), 113 Working Conference on Neighborhood Policy (2013), 17–18 World Bank, 15, 172 World Economic Forum, 168 World Trade Organization, 170, 177 world-systems theory, 78 Wright, Thomas, 174 Xi Jinping, 11, 183 Astana speech (2013), 23, 25–6, 39 Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (2017), 152 Boao Forum for Asia speech (2015), 27, 32 and Constitution, 164 Davos speech (2017), 168 Duterte, relationship with, 156 Jakarta speech (2013), 23, 26, 39 Joint Statement on Cooperation on EEU and Silk Road Projects (2015), 57 London visit (2015), 43 Mahathir’s letter (2018), 130–31 Modi, summit with (2018), 135 National Congress, 19th (2017), 29, 181 National Cybersecurity Work Conference (2018), 84 presidential term limits repeal (2018), 164, 174 Road Towards Renewal exhibition (2012), 165 Sirisena, grant to (2018), 156 and state-owned companies, 42, 153 Sun Wenguang’s letter (2018), 163 telecommunications, 43 Trump’s visit (2017), 124 and value chains, 94 Wang Huning, relationship with, 40 and Western democracy, 166, 181 Working Conference on Neighborhood Policy (2013), 17–18 Xi’an, Shaanxi, 24, 28, 147, 188 Xinhua, 24, 41, 64 Xinjiang, 20, 54, 55, 56, 59, 60, 100–101, 128–9, 188, 189 Xiong Guangkai, 32 Xu Jin, 33 Xu Zhangrun, 163–4 Yamal LNG project, 48, 66 Yang Jian, 132 Yang Jiechi, 39, 171 Yang Jing, 40 Yangtze River, 165 Yao Yunzhu, 169–70 Ye Peijian, 187 yuan, see renminbi Yunnan, China, 54, 129, 149, 188 Zeng Jinghan, 181 zero-sum, 27 Zhang Gaoli, 39 Zhang Qian, 25 Zhang Weiwei, 182–3, 184 Zhao Tingyang, 27 Zheng He, 162–3 Zhi Zhenfeng, 84 Zimbabwe, 12, 44 Zoellick, Robert, 169 ZTE, 94, 170–71 Zurich, Switzerland, 160 First published in the United Kingdom in 2018 by C.

China into Africa: trade, aid, and influence by Robert I. Rotberg

barriers to entry, BRICs, colonial rule, corporate governance, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, European colonialism, export processing zone, failed state, global supply chain, global value chain, income inequality, Khartoum Gordon, land reform, low interest rates, megacity, megaproject, microcredit, offshore financial centre, one-China policy, out of africa, Pearl River Delta, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Scramble for Africa, Shenzhen special economic zone , South China Sea, special economic zone, structural adjustment programs, subprime mortgage crisis, trade route, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game

During his visit, Hu announced a package of measures designed to further boost bilateral relations, including debt relief, an expansion of Zambian tariff-free exports to China, and the establishment of China’s first special economic and trade zone, in the Chambishi mining area.15 Zambia, in turn, promised to continue to back the one-China policy and to oppose “Taiwanese independence” in any form.16 Behind the usual rhetoric, the most important announcement was the establishment of the SEZs in Chambishi, the heart of Zambia’s Copperbelt region. The Copperbelt is a commodity-rich, strategic center of the African 07-7561-4 ch7.qxd 9/16/08 4:17 PM Page 144 144 martyn j. davies mining industry.

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As Taiwan transitioned to democracy in the mid-1980s, its political leadership decided to take advantage of the shock caused by Beijing’s 1989 crackdown at Tiananmen Square to reinvigorate its “dollar diplomacy.”40 Beginning in 1989, five countries reestablished relations with Taiwan (Belize, Central African Republic [CAR], Grenada, Liberia, and Lesotho). China responded by breaking diplomatic relations, in accord with its strict “one-China” policy. Within months, these five countries were enjoying generous new aid projects. Taiwan also promised to complete any unfinished Chinese projects. African countries that switched back to Taiwan over the past decade and a half also include Burkina Faso, Chad, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Niger, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Senegal (CAR switched between Beijing and Taipei four times before January 1998).

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.- Niger Delta, 168; insurgency in, 277, China collaboration and, 308–09 281, 291, 308; Movement for the Noninterference doctrine, 7, 36, 55, 80, Emanicpation of, 178 130, 307; as Chinese foreign policy Nigeria, 6, 54, 272–93; apparel and, 107; philosophy, 56; Chinese support of, attacks against Chinese in, 178–79; 298; as CPC-ID principle, 232–33; balance of power and, 289–90; human rights abuses and, 264; polit- Cameroon conflict and, 175; as case ical outreach and, 236; in Sudan, study, 272–73; China model and, 305; in Zimbabwe, 37 287–89; China relationship and, North America, 102 274–78; Chinese goods in, 11; Chi- North China Sea Fleet, 180 nese immigrants in, 272, 280–82, North Korea, 17, 260; foreign aid and, 286–87, 292–93; Chinese technology 198 in, 35–36; Confucius Institutes in, North-South War (Sudan), 257–59, 304 29; corruption and, 301; debt relief Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms and, 302; FDI and, 106; geographic Transfers, 163 concentration and, 100–01; human Nyerere, Julius, 83, 146, 158, 273 rights and, 13, 290–93; light crude oil and, 115; market survey data, Obasanjo, Olusegun, 274–75, 290, 376; 282–86; military assistance and, 161, textile industry and, 280 167–68, 183; multinational invest- Obiorah, Ndubisi, 11, 272 ment and, 117; national security and, Official development assistance (ODA), 155; ODA and, 213; oil and, 4–5, 208–09; Chinese concessional loans 115, 118, 250; resentment of Chinese and, 222–23, 225–26, 227; estimating in, 279–81; SEZs and, 140, 147–48, amounts of, 210; West and, 213 151 Offshore exploration, 113 Nigerian Association of Chambers of Ogaden National Liberation Front, 179 Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Ogun State, Nigeria, 148 Agriculture, 275 Ohio University, 281 Nigerian Communications Commis- Oil, 88–89, 109–13, 110, 278; elites and, sion, 275 292; FDI and, 103–04; geographic Nigerian National Petroleum Company, concentration of trade and, 100; gov- 116 ernment management of, 114–18; Nigerian Telephony Project, 275 government-to-government assis- Nigeria Textile Manufacturers Associa- tance and, 109; human rights and, tion, 279 251, 254, 256; naval strategy and, Nnamani, Ken, 289 182; Nigeria and, 272, 275, 277–78, 16-7561-4 index.qxd 9/16/08 4:25 PM Page 333 Index 333 279, 281, 289; product distribution Peacekeeping operations, 176–78, 306; and, 99; refineries for, 250, 277–78; China and, 308; Sudan and, 257, 266 Sudan and, 256–57, 264; US-China Pearl River Delta, 138 relations and, 304–05; Zimbabwe People’s Daily (newspaper), 220, 225 and, 262 People’s Liberation Army (PLA), 162, Olympics, Beijing (2008), 2, 13, 68, 130, 165–67; naval strategy and, 184; 266; Darfur and, 12–13 South Africa and, 169; Zambia and, ONCC Videsh, 120 173; Zimbabwe and, 174–75 One-China policy, 211; Zambia and, Persian Gulf, 181, 184 143 Petrobras, 122 One-party states, 238–39, 242, 287 Petrodar, 257 Operation Gukurahundi, 260 Petronas, 256 Operation Murambatsvina, 260–61, 263 Political outreach, 230–43; cadre train- Opposition parties, 233, 235, 239–41, ing as, 237–38; under the CPC-ID, 242; CPC-ID strategy and, 238; in 232–35; as foreign policy, 230, Zimbabwe, 260–61 242–43; hospitality as, 235–37; infor- Organization for Economic Coopera- mation management as, 238; tion and Development (OECD), 208, National People’s Congress and, 302, 308; amount of Chinese foreign 241–42; to opposition parties, aid and, 210–11; ODA and, 213; soft 239–41; revolutionary ideology and, power and, 212 230–32 Organization for Petroleum Exporting Political parties, 230–43, 273; begin- Countries (OPEC), 118, 198 nings of outreach between, 230–32; Organization of African Unity, 156 opposition parties, 239–41; outreach Organization of European Cooperation in modern era, 232–35; outreach and Development, 9 methods and, 235–38; overview of Oshodi market, 281 outreach to, 242–43; visits by leaders, Ottawa Landmine Convention, 178 235–37 Poly Technology, 167 Pakistan, 165; foreign aid and, 199; Popular Movement for the Liberation of naval strategy and, 181–82; SEZs Angola (MPLA), 117–18, 157, 231, and, 140 238; military assistance and, 159 Pan-Africanist Congress, 156, 231 Port Harcourt, Nigeria, 179, 281 Paramilitaries, 254–55 Port Sudan, Sudan, 171 Pariah states, 263, 265 Portugal, 67, 116–17, 213 Paris Club debt, 277 Postcolonialism, 81–83, 298 Parliamentary exchanges, 241–42 Poverty, 288, 300, 307; China model Partido Frelimo, 23 and, 292, 298; conditional assistance Party of the Revolution (Chama Cha and, 288; elites and, 292; United Mapinduzi) (Tanzania), 237 States and, 304; in Zimbabwe, 260 Patel, Dipak, 72 Preferential loans.

The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity by Amy Webb

"Friedman doctrine" OR "shareholder theory", Ada Lovelace, AI winter, air gap, Airbnb, airport security, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, algorithmic bias, AlphaGo, Andy Rubin, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, Bayesian statistics, behavioural economics, Bernie Sanders, Big Tech, bioinformatics, Black Lives Matter, blockchain, Bretton Woods, business intelligence, Cambridge Analytica, Cass Sunstein, Charles Babbage, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive bias, complexity theory, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, CRISPR, cross-border payments, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, data science, deep learning, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, Deng Xiaoping, disinformation, distributed ledger, don't be evil, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, fail fast, fake news, Filter Bubble, Flynn Effect, Geoffrey Hinton, gig economy, Google Glasses, Grace Hopper, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Herman Kahn, high-speed rail, Inbox Zero, Internet of things, Jacques de Vaucanson, Jeff Bezos, Joan Didion, job automation, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, Lyft, machine translation, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, move fast and break things, Mustafa Suleyman, natural language processing, New Urbanism, Nick Bostrom, one-China policy, optical character recognition, packet switching, paperclip maximiser, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Recombinant DNA, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rodney Brooks, Rubik’s Cube, Salesforce, Sand Hill Road, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, seminal paper, SETI@home, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Skype, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, strong AI, superintelligent machines, surveillance capitalism, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, the long tail, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, Turing machine, Turing test, uber lyft, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, zero day

But the system only sees two possible solutions: give in to China or pare down the human race. 2069: Digital Annihilation While China was focused on long-term planning and a national strategy for AI, the United States was instead concerned with devices and dollars. China no longer needs the United States as a trade partner, and it doesn’t need our intellectual property. China has built a network of more than 150 countries that operate under the guiding principles of the Global One China Policy. In return for their obedience, these countries have network access, the ability to trade, and a stable financial system backed by Beijing. Their citizens are free to move throughout One China countries, providing they have earned a high enough social credit score. The ability to travel—a freedom Americans used to take for granted—has never been missed so greatly.

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See also names of specific Chinese companies; BAT; China, catastrophic scenario of future and; China, optimistic scenario of future and; China, pragmatic scenario of future and; Xi Jinping China, catastrophic scenario of future and: biometric borders, 227; extermination of U.S. population by ASI, 229; geopolitical and military power, 223; Global One China Policy, 228, 229; Great AI Wall of China, 227; hackers, 215; Internet of Things attack, 215; locking Americans into United States, 227; One China Principle, 215; U.S. economic and diplomatic actions against, 227; U.S. government ignoring AI infrastructure and economy of, 210–211; U.S. southern border wall built by, 227 China, optimistic scenario of future and, 245; adoption of GAIA norms and standards, 172; smart city initiative pilot programs, 168.

Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century by Mark Leonard

Berlin Wall, Celtic Tiger, continuous integration, cuban missile crisis, different worldview, European colonialism, facts on the ground, failed state, global reserve currency, Global Witness, invisible hand, knowledge economy, mass immigration, non-tariff barriers, North Sea oil, one-China policy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, pension reform, reserve currency, Robert Gordon, shareholder value, South China Sea, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, Washington Consensus

China will also need to shift its thinking on sovereignty. Rather than seeing pooling sovereignty as a threat, it will need to embrace it further if its attempts at fostering regional integration are to take off. There are many things that could stand in the way. The resurgent nationalism of public opinion and the ‘One China’ policy that aims to stop Taiwan from declaring its independence at ‘any price’ are frightening to European observers. The Chinese government’s voracious appetite for energy is also in danger of pitting China against some of the European Union’s priorities. Its need to protect its energy interests in Sudan and Iran could put Beijing at odds with Western attempts to halt genocide in the former and the proliferation of WMD in the latter.

The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers by Richard McGregor

activist lawyer, banking crisis, corporate governance, credit crunch, Deng Xiaoping, financial innovation, Gini coefficient, glass ceiling, global reserve currency, Great Leap Forward, haute couture, high-speed rail, hiring and firing, income inequality, invisible hand, kremlinology, land reform, Martin Wolf, megaproject, Mikhail Gorbachev, military-industrial complex, old-boy network, one-China policy, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, pre–internet, reserve currency, risk/return, Shenzhen special economic zone , South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Upton Sinclair

Any alternatives to the official narrative have been strictly forbidden since the communists came to power. Over time, China has forced the same framework on its bilateral relations with just about every country in the world. Anyone invited to China, no matter how lowly, is required to acquiesce in the one-China policy, which recognizes Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan. To do otherwise instantly renders an individual persona non grata. Foreign political leaders who fail to toe the one-China line put diplomatic ties at risk and invite commercial retribution for their companies. The policy has always been policed with a breathtaking exactitude, in which no transgression of the basic rule–that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China–is allowed to pass.

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., 47–9 Shanghainese, 152–3 land disputes, 135–7, 158–60, 164, 167 Shao Daosheng, 98 Shao Depeng, 217 Shen Ting, 159, 164, 167–8 Shen Wenrong, 207 Shenzhen corruption cases, 181 Deng’s tour to, 41 Shijiazhuang, 174 Shirk, Susan, 129 shuanggui (double regulation), 142–3 Sichuan corruption cases, 139 earthquake, 192 Singapore COSCO in, 102 Suzhou industrial park, 83 Sinified Marxism, 67 Sinology, 18–19 Sinopec, 63–4 society, infiltrates Party, 30 Song Ping, 36 Song Xiaojun, 119–20, 125, 132 southern tour, 41 Southern Weekend, 185–6 Soviet Union disintegration of, 35, 131 nomenklatura system, 78, 79 Orgburo, 76 Party’s verdict on collapse of, 237–8 succession, 154 Stalin, Joseph, 76 Standing Committee, 13, 278–9n above corruption investigation, 147 Shanghai gang in, 154 state assets debates over, 40 Deng’s model on, 42 new conservatives on, 35, 39 state enterprises competition and profitability, 53–6 Deng’s model on, 42 new conservatives on, 39 Party’s low profile in, 21–2, 49 pay structure for CEOs, 102–3 personnel control of, 46, 68–9, 73–4, 84–9 reform, 44, 67–8 split personalities of, 53, 64 stock options, 100–101 tax from, 267 workers lay-offs, 42–3, 50 see also individual enterprises steel industry, 220, 221, 222 Stewart, Jackie, 162 Storming the Barricades (Zhou Tianyong), 69 students loans, 173 money worship, 133 view of Party, 31–2 Su Shulin, 64 Su Zhiliang, 245, 246 Sudan, 62 Suihua, 97–9, 116 Sun Jingkan, 160 Suzhou, 83 corruption cases, 139–40 Tai lake (Taihu), 89, 90, 91–2 Taiwan issue Jiang and Hu’s policies, 106–7, 127–30, 134 nationalist stand on, 131–2 nature of, 122–3 one-China policy, 127–8 Taiwanese opinions, 125–8 see also Kuomintang Tang Dynasty (ad 618–907), official vetting, 77 tax policy, 178, 179 telecommunication, 233–4 telecoms companies, 84–9 terror, 265 textbook censorship, 249–50 Thatcher, Margaret, 202 38th Army, 109–10 Thornton, John, 88 Tian, Edward, 84, 86–9 Tian Fengshan, 98 Tian Wenhua charged, 172 downfall, 188 dual responsibility dilemma, 186 leads emergency meeting, 171 titles of, 182–3 trial and charge, 190–91 Tiananmen Square massacre, 105, 253, 262 discussion suppressed, 35 impact of, 34–5, 36, 201, 202 Party’s verdict, 239 post-event investigation, 36 splits Party and PLA, 109–10 Tibet, 111 Tieben see Jiangsu Tieben Iron & Steel The Times of Deng Xiaoping (Yang Jisheng), 253–4 Todai elite, 9 Tombstone (Yang Jisheng), 229, 230–31, 232 sourcing of, 254–5 trade union, 213–14 Tsai, George, 126–7, 130 Tsang Yok-sing, 21 21st-Century World Herald, 247 ‘Twenty-Seven Perfections’, 77 UBS, 199 Unhappy China (Wang and Song), 112, 132 United Front Department, 17 United Front department, 235 United Kingsom, elite networks, 9 United States aircraft carrier patrols seas around Taiwan, 128 elite networks, 9 official appointment, 74 patriotism, 270 pet food scandals, 183, 184–5 universities, 79–80 Unocal, 54 urban citizens, 27 Urumqi, 111, 139 Vatican, and China, 11–12 vertushka, 13 voting, 11–12 wages, 56 Wal-Mart, 213–14 Wan Yanhai, 3 Wang Jianzhou, 85 Wang Juntao, 23–4 Wang Minggao, 140, 144 on corruption cases, 148 interview with, 71, 72 lack of name card, 70–71 Wang Qishan, ix, xvi Wang Shengjun, 24 Wang Shenyi, 99 Wang Shi, 207–8 Wang Weizhi, 231, 258–60 Wang Xiaodong, 112 Wang Xiaofang, 95, 96 Wang Xuebing, 158 Wang Yang, 234 Watergate scandal, 164 Wen Jiabao, xvi, 7, 279n confronted by Chen Liangyu, 163 on democracy, 20 development policies, 178–80 solves Sinopec oil dispute, 63 on Tieben case, 221 titles of, 15–16 visits earthquake zone, 192 wife and son of, 147–8 on Zhang Enzhao’s case, 145 Wen Wei Bao, 21 Wenzhou, 215, 217–18 ‘west mountain meeting’, 22–3 Wolf, Martin, 237, 269 World Trade Organization, 202, 266 Wrath of Heaven, 144, 168, 169 writers/artists, 96 Wu, Joseph, 123, 124 Wu Bangguo, 7, 279n Wu Lihong, 90–91 Wu Si, 74 Wu Xiaobo, 209 Xi Jinping, 8, 228, 279n Xia Chuntao, 247, 251–2 Xia Jianming, 30 Xiamen, corruption cases, 139, 159 Xiang river, 92–3 Xiao Chaoxuan (fictional), 95–6 Xiao Yaqing, 57, 58, 60–61 Xinhua news agency interview with Zhang Ruimin, 198 on peanut product scandal, 191 secret internal reports, 230, 253 on Tian’s downfall, 188 Xinjiang, 111, 139 Xinjiang Soldier Corps, 114 Xintiandi, Shanghai, 29 Xinyang, 255–8 Xu Guanhua, 140 Xu Haiming, 135–6, 137, 153, 157, 160, 164, 167 Xu Kuangdi, 151, 156 Xu Qinxian, Lieutenant-General, 109–10 Yan Xuetong, 104 on diplomatic policy, 132 on Hu’s policies, 107 on military, 122 on money worship, 132–4 on Taiwan issue, 131–2 Yan’an rectification, 77–8 Yang, Andrew, 120 on Taiwan issue, 122, 126, 129 Yang Bin, 206 Yang Jiechi, 277n Yang Jisheng, 229–31, 232, 239–40, 252–6, 258, 259–61, 265 Yang Mianmian, 203 Yang Ping, 39, 40 Yang Rong, 206 Yang Shangkun, 239 Yang Yuanqing, 204 Yingkou, 175 You Ji, 121 Youngor, 216 Yu Dehong, 232, 255–7, 260 Yu Jianrong, 179 Yu Jie, 246–7 Yu Minhong, 227 Yu Qiuli, 113 Yuan Weishi, 70, 78–9, 249–50, 252 Yuanhua case, 7–8 Yung Chunchang, 119 Yunnan, 181 Zeng Qinghong, 74, 81–2 Zhang Baoqing, 170, 173 Zhang Chunjiang, 88 Zhang Dahong, 216 Zhang Dejiang, 208–9 Zhang Enzhao, 145–6 Zhang Peili, 147–8 Zhang Quanjing, 75 Zhang Ruimin, 194, 198, 203 Zhang Yimou, 121–2 Zhao Ziyang, 80, 154, 254 encourages political reform, 36 image blackout, 35 rural reform, 200 Zhejiang, 209 Zheng Bijian, 106 Zheng Enchong, 135, 137, 159, 161, 167 Zheng Xiaoyu, 183 Zhengtai Group, 218 Zhou Enlai, 113, 123, 253 Zhou Qiren, 220, 223 Zhou Ruijin, 31, 154 Zhou Tianyong, 69 Zhou Yongkang, 24–5, 81–2, 279n Zhou Zhengyi, 157–8, 159, 161–2, 167 Zhu Feng, 62–3 Zhu Peikun, 32 Zhu Rongji, 148 careers, 81 financial system reform, 44–6 misread by Western leaders, 43 state enterprise reform, 44 visits Huawei, 204 Acknowledgements Journalists rely on the charity, goodwill and democratic impulse of people the world over.

The Currency Cold War: Cash and Cryptography, Hash Rates and Hegemony by David G. W. Birch

"World Economic Forum" Davos, Alan Greenspan, algorithmic management, AlphaGo, bank run, Big Tech, bitcoin, blockchain, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, cashless society, central bank independence, COVID-19, cross-border payments, cryptocurrency, Diane Coyle, disintermediation, distributed ledger, Donald Trump, driverless car, Elon Musk, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, fault tolerance, fiat currency, financial exclusion, financial innovation, financial intermediation, floating exchange rates, forward guidance, Fractional reserve banking, global reserve currency, global supply chain, global village, Hyman Minsky, information security, initial coin offering, Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, M-Pesa, Mark Zuckerberg, market clearing, market design, Marshall McLuhan, mobile money, Money creation, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, Network effects, new economy, Northern Rock, one-China policy, Overton Window, PalmPilot, pattern recognition, Pingit, QR code, quantum cryptography, race to the bottom, railway mania, ransomware, Real Time Gross Settlement, reserve currency, Satoshi Nakamoto, seigniorage, Silicon Valley, smart contracts, social distancing, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, subscription business, the payments system, too big to fail, transaction costs, Vitalik Buterin, Washington Consensus

It is not at all clear to me, however, that we (i.e. the West, essentially) do. Amy Webb, painting a scenario for the middle of this century, speaks of a world where China no longer needs the United States as a trade partner because it has built a network of more than 150 countries that operate under the guiding principles of the Global One China Policy (Webb 2019). These countries have network access and the ability to trade within a stable financial system backed by Beijing, and their citizens are free to move throughout One China countries (provided they have earned a high enough social credit score). She is particularly concerned about AI, saying that ‘while China was focused on long-term planning and a national strategy for AI, the United States was instead concerned with devices and dollars’, but I think these concerns might similarly be applied to the world of money, payments and finance.

Independent Diplomat: Dispatches From an Unaccountable Elite by Carne Ross

Abraham Maslow, barriers to entry, blood diamond, carbon tax, cuban missile crisis, Doha Development Round, energy security, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Global Witness, income inequality, information security, iterative process, meta-analysis, oil-for-food scandal, one-China policy, Peace of Westphalia, Pearl River Delta, stakhanovite, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Tragedy of the Commons, zero-sum game

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice does it, the State Department press spokesman does it. Individual diplomats do it. “We seek the disarmament of Iran and are dissatisfied with their assurances to date.” “We welcome the recent elections in Ukraine.” “Our interests in China versus those in Taiwan dictate the continuation of the One-China policy.” This was how I spoke with journalists. It was how I talked in negotiations with other diplomats: “We do not agree with your proposed text for paragraph 12 of the resolution and instead offer the following words…”. Even in our internal meetings, we spoke in this way: “This morning our objective in the Security Council discussion should be to…”.

Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order by Colin Kahl, Thomas Wright

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 2021 United States Capitol attack, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, biodiversity loss, Black Lives Matter, Boris Johnson, British Empire, Carmen Reinhart, centre right, Charles Lindbergh, circular economy, citizen journalism, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, colonial rule, contact tracing, contact tracing app, coronavirus, COVID-19, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, deglobalization, digital rights, disinformation, Donald Trump, drone strike, eurozone crisis, failed state, fake news, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, future of work, George Floyd, German hyperinflation, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, global supply chain, global value chain, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, it's over 9,000, job automation, junk bonds, Kibera, lab leak, liberal world order, lockdown, low interest rates, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, megacity, mobile money, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, one-China policy, open borders, open economy, Paris climate accords, public intellectual, Ronald Reagan, social distancing, South China Sea, spice trade, statistical model, subprime mortgage crisis, W. E. B. Du Bois, World Values Survey, zoonotic diseases

But an unnamed official told the Journal that the Chinese foreign ministry’s insinuation in mid-March that the U.S. Army brought the virus to Wuhan might have been the tipping point for Trump.58 Two Trump administration officials who favored continued engagement with China and pushed back against the hard-liners told us that before COVID-19, Trump was something of a moderating force on China policy but he was so upset at how it had jeopardized his reelection prospects that he was willing to endorse everything the hard-liners wanted. Whatever the immediate cause, the change was real. In an interview, a member of the hard-line group reflected: “There’s no question that the pandemic and China’s efforts to exploit the pandemic were galvanizing for a unified U.S. response [to China].”

…

The NSC felt they were close to reaching agreement after the November election, when they announced a blizzard of other foreign policy initiatives. But Trump had lost all interest and focused instead on overturning the election results. PURCHASING POWER As 2020 wore on, Trump allowed his team to pursue tough-on-China policies, but the president’s mind was often elsewhere, chasing whichever rabbit happened to appear that particular day. Like much of the rest of the world, the United States and its diplomatic apparatus began to focus on the narrow task of securing crucial medical supplies and drugs that the country needed.

The Return of Marco Polo's World: War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-First Century by Robert D. Kaplan

"World Economic Forum" Davos, Admiral Zheng, always be closing, California gold rush, collective bargaining, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Dr. Strangelove, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, friendly fire, Great Leap Forward, Haight Ashbury, high-speed rail, kremlinology, load shedding, mass immigration, megacity, military-industrial complex, no-fly zone, oil-for-food scandal, one-China policy, Parag Khanna, Pax Mongolica, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, the long tail, trade route, Westphalian system, Yom Kippur War

While analysts in the United States might ferociously complain about China’s lack of transparency, about its autocratic system, and about its naval aggression in the South and East China seas, China, especially since the end of Deng Xiaoping’s rule, has been governed by a collegial group of enlightened autocrats and technocrats, conservative in nature and averse to risk taking, so that China has generated relatively few surprises. This has helped encourage a bipartisan consensus on China policy in Washington, with the differences between Democrats and Republicans muted compared to the disputes that envenom Middle East policy. But more than three decades of double-digit growth, in addition to generating vast and profound contradictions and inefficiencies in the Chinese economy, have also created a more sophisticated, restive, and socially complex society—one that is harder to satisfy.

Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Gobal Crisis by James Rickards

"World Economic Forum" Davos, Alan Greenspan, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Bear Stearns, behavioural economics, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Black Swan, borderless world, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business climate, buy and hold, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cross-border payments, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, currency risk, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deal flow, Deng Xiaoping, diversification, diversified portfolio, Dr. Strangelove, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, full employment, game design, German hyperinflation, Gini coefficient, global rebalancing, global reserve currency, Great Leap Forward, guns versus butter model, high net worth, income inequality, interest rate derivative, it's over 9,000, John Meriwether, Kenneth Rogoff, laissez-faire capitalism, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, low interest rates, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, market bubble, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Money creation, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Myron Scholes, Network effects, New Journalism, Nixon shock, Nixon triggered the end of the Bretton Woods system, offshore financial centre, oil shock, one-China policy, open economy, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, power law, price mechanism, price stability, private sector deleveraging, proprietary trading, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, short squeeze, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, special economic zone, subprime mortgage crisis, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, time value of money, too big to fail, value at risk, vertical integration, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game

The U.S. cell was composed entirely of academics, think-tankers and uniformed military, and had no market experience at all, so I had to assume they just didn’t get it when it came to an assault on the dollar. Like most experts I’d spoken to, they probably assumed the dollar would always remain dominant and did not think much about alternative scenarios. * * * [conditioned or contingent?] * * * We set about preparing our responses to the problem at hand. China reiterated its “One China” policy and warned other nations not to support the Taiwanese initiative. Japan tried to promote an Asian Free Trade Area that would welcome both China and Taiwan as a way to obviate their divisions. The United States emphasized military cooperation with Taiwan but urged that such cooperation in the future would be conditioned on Taiwan’s reducing its confrontational stance.

Executive Orders by Tom Clancy

affirmative action, Ayatollah Khomeini, card file, defense in depth, disinformation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, experimental subject, financial independence, flag carrier, friendly fire, Great Leap Forward, lateral thinking, military-industrial complex, Monroe Doctrine, Neil Armstrong, one-China policy, operational security, out of africa, Own Your Own Home, plutocrats, power law, rolodex, South China Sea, the long tail, trade route

I am here this morning to inform our citizens of a tragic and so far unexplained incident in which over a hundred people, including fourteen American citizens, have lost their lives. This government will do its utmost to determine what took place, and then to decide upon a proper course of action.” “Very well, Mr. President. Do we have a one-China policy, or a two-China policy?” “We have made no changes.” “Might a change result from this incident?” “I will not speculate on something so important as that. And now, with your permission, I have to get back to work.” “Thank you, Mr. President!” Jack heard on his way out the door. Just around the corner was a well-hidden gun cabinet.

…

With it, Ed Kealty could prove that Ryan was up to his old tricks, playing secret agent man, and even suborning Scott Adler into doing the same. It was out there somewhere, the key to destroying Ryan's political legitimacy. He was dodging and counterpunching well, doubtless due to Arnie van Damm's coaching, but his gaffe yesterday on China policy had sent rumbles throughout the building. Like many people at State, he wished that Taiwan would just go away, and enable America to get on with the business of conducting normal relations with the world's newest superpower. “One thing at a time, Cliff.” The meeting returned to the China issue.

…

Despite all that, the rest of the world was entirely willing to let the People's Republic crush their cousins on Taiwan. This was called realpolitik, Scott Adler thought. Something similar had resulted in an event called the Holocaust, an event his father had survived, with a number tattooed on his forearm to prove it. Even his own country officially had a one-China policy, though the unspoken codicil was that the PRC would not attack the ROC-and if it did, then America might just react. Or might not. Adler was a career diplomat, a graduate of Cornell and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He loved his country. He was often an instrument of his country's policy, and now found himself to be his country's very voice of international affairs.

Destined for War: America, China, and Thucydides's Trap by Graham Allison

9 dash line, anti-communist, Berlin Wall, borderless world, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Dr. Strangelove, escalation ladder, facts on the ground, false flag, Flash crash, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, game design, George Santayana, Great Leap Forward, guns versus butter model, Haber-Bosch Process, Herman Kahn, high-speed rail, industrial robot, Internet of things, Kenneth Rogoff, liberal world order, long peace, Mark Zuckerberg, megacity, megaproject, middle-income trap, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, Nelson Mandela, one-China policy, Paul Samuelson, Peace of Westphalia, public intellectual, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, special economic zone, spice trade, Suez canal 1869, synthetic biology, TED Talk, the rule of 72, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trade route, UNCLOS, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game

See colonization; imperialism; specific powers and wars New York Stock Exchange, 272 New York Times, 13, 173 Nicaragua, 97, 99, 191, 331 n11 Nicholas I (tsar), 265 Nicholas II (tsar), xii, xiv, 68 Nietzsche, Friedrich, 235 Nine Years’ War, 257, 259 Nitze, Paul, 202, 215, 238 Nixon, Richard, 5, 110, 148, 151, 158, 215–16, 225, 232 Nobel Prize, 22, 65, 166 Nomura, Kichisaburō, 280 Non-Proliferation Treaty, 228 North America, 92, 99–100, 255–56, 259–60 See also Alaska; Canada; colonization; United States North German Confederation, 267–68 North Korea, 154–56, 175–76, 178–81, 202–3, 223, 228–29 North Sea, 72, 74–75, 81, 257 Norway, 21–22 NSA (National Security Agency), 163 NSC (National Security Council), 8, 177, 234 NSC-68, 202, 204, 215, 237 NSDD-75, 237 nuclear terrorism, 228–29 nuclear weapons China and, 175, 178–79, 227, 235, 295 n62 Cuban Missile Crisis and, xii, xiii, xiv, xix escalation and, 43, 165–66, 180–81, 328 n6, 347 n154 existential threat of, 155–56, 164, 335 n59 Iran and, 163, 229 North Korea and, 179–81 Soviet Union and, 158, 202–3, 234, 281–84, 333 n49 treaties and, 225 United States and, 157, 194 war and, 206–10, 228 See also MAD (mutual assured destruction) Nye, Joseph, 94, 336 n8 O Obama, Barack, viii, 5, 8, 16–18, 24, 118, 147, 151, 227, 230, 237–38, 321 n34, 331 n10 OBOR (One Belt, One Road), 22, 125–26 Oceanic Sea, 341 n37 OECD, 16, 294 n48 Okinawa, 175, 179 Olney, Richard, 195 Olympics, 124 One Belt, One Road. See OBOR (One Belt, One Road) one-child policy, 124 One China policy, 159, 173–74 Open Door order, 45–46, 279 Operation Desert Storm, 129 Opium Wars, 111–12 Oracle at Delphi, 34 Orde, Anne, 196, 273 order. See hierarchies Oregon (battleship), 99 Orwell, George, 120, 175, 201 Ottoman Empire, 249–52, 263–64 Ottoman-Hapsburg wars, 250 P Pacific Command, 170–71, 174–75, 178 Pacific Ocean, 8, 91–92, 99–102, 131, 150, 171, 235, 255, 266–80, 313 n7, 340 n12 See also specific powers and wars Paine, Thomas, 142 Pakistan, 60, 125, 228–29, 331 n10 Panama, 94, 99–102, 313 n4, 317 n58, 317 n60, 317 n65 Panama Canal, 99–102, 273 Paracel Islands, 127, 227 paranoia, 40, 44, 54 See also ruling power syndrome Paris Agreement, 230, 338 n25 Parker, Geoffrey, 341 n37 Parthenon, 32 patriotism, 117, 122 See also national identity Pax Americana, 237 peace at Aix-la-Chapelle, 260 peace at Versailles, 198 Peace of Westphalia, 254–55 Pearl Harbor, 43–47, 74, 171, 181, 279–81 Peloponnesian League, 34–35 Peloponnesian War, viii, xiv, xv, xviii, 28–30, 33, 37–38 Penlington, Norman, 104 People’s Daily, 157 People’s Liberation Army.

Factory Man: How One Furniture Maker Battled Offshoring, Stayed Local - and Helped Save an American Town by Beth Macy

8-hour work day, affirmative action, AltaVista, Apollo 13, belly landing, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, call centre, company town, corporate governance, corporate raider, creative destruction, currency manipulation / currency intervention, desegregation, gentleman farmer, Great Leap Forward, interchangeable parts, Joseph Schumpeter, new economy, old-boy network, one-China policy, race to the bottom, reshoring, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Skype, special economic zone, supply-chain management, Thomas L Friedman, union organizing, value engineering, work culture

$1.2 million of pretax profits: “Furniture Veterans Bear Witness to How Trade Spats Split Industries,” Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2004; importing details from Wyatt Bassett, interview with the author, December 14, 2012. Kuo’s videotaping at Vaughan-Bassett: “Furniture Veterans Bear Witness.” China’s treatment of Taiwan: The one-China policy had its origins in 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek moved the seat of his defeated government to Taiwan; Chiang and Mao Tse-tung each insisted that his government was the only legitimate government of China and that it had authority over both the mainland and Taiwan. Though Taiwanese businessmen maintained strong economic ties to China, few Taiwanese citizens wanted to come under Beijing’s harsh Communist rule.

The Power Elite by C. Wright Mills, Alan Wolfe

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, American ideology, anti-communist, Asilomar, collective bargaining, Cornelius Vanderbilt, creative destruction, cuban missile crisis, desegregation, full employment, Ida Tarbell, it's over 9,000, Joseph Schumpeter, long peace, means of production, military-industrial complex, Monroe Doctrine, one-China policy, plutocrats, pneumatic tube, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, The Theory of the Leisure Class by Thorstein Veblen, Thorstein Veblen, Vilfredo Pareto

And that’s the way I like to think in these investigations.’22 There were many men who ‘wouldn’t fit behind a tree’ with policeman McLeod, and among many Foreign Service officers who still held their positions ‘the impression grew that it wasn’t safe to report the truth to Washington about any foreign situation when the truth didn’t jibe with the preconceived notions of the people in Washington.’*23 Following a long list of men already dismissed for reasons of ‘loyalty,’ in the fall of 1954, a career diplomat of twenty-three years service, John Paton Davies, was dismissed not on the grounds of loyalty, but because of ‘lack of judgment, discretion and reliability’; his opinions on China policy ten years previously not jibing with the current administration policy.25 The comments on this case by career men expressed their state of mind. A recent member of the Policy Planning Staff of the State Department wrote: ‘One hopes that the American public will see at last that the word “security” has become a euphemism.

In the Plex: How Google Thinks, Works, and Shapes Our Lives by Steven Levy

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 23andMe, AltaVista, Andy Rubin, Anne Wojcicki, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, autonomous vehicles, Bill Atkinson, book scanning, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, business process, clean water, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, Dean Kamen, discounted cash flows, don't be evil, Donald Knuth, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Dutch auction, El Camino Real, Evgeny Morozov, fault tolerance, Firefox, General Magic , Gerard Salton, Gerard Salton, Google bus, Google Chrome, Google Earth, Googley, high-speed rail, HyperCard, hypertext link, IBM and the Holocaust, informal economy, information retrieval, Internet Archive, Jeff Bezos, John Markoff, Ken Thompson, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, large language model, machine translation, Mark Zuckerberg, Menlo Park, one-China policy, optical character recognition, PageRank, PalmPilot, Paul Buchheit, Potemkin village, prediction markets, Project Xanadu, recommendation engine, risk tolerance, Rubik’s Cube, Sand Hill Road, Saturday Night Live, search inside the book, second-price auction, selection bias, Sheryl Sandberg, Silicon Valley, SimCity, skunkworks, Skype, slashdot, social graph, social software, social web, spectrum auction, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, subscription business, Susan Wojcicki, Ted Nelson, telemarketer, The future is already here, the long tail, trade route, traveling salesman, turn-by-turn navigation, undersea cable, Vannevar Bush, web application, WikiLeaks, Y Combinator

“The reason that the government is so uncomfortable with us is that we are pushing our philosophy and making progress.” But for all the progress, some Google executives were beginning to think that its great China compromise wasn’t working. Though not formally organized, they consisted of a rump group of skeptics on China policy, and they looked ahead to a day when Google would no longer censor its search engine there—or leave the country. A turning point came in 2008, the year China hosted the Olympics. In the run-up to its turn in the international spotlight, China apparently decided to increase its restrictions. It demanded that in addition to censoring the .cn results, Google purge objectionable links from the Chinese-language version of Google.com.

When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Rise of the Middle Kingdom by Martin Jacques

Admiral Zheng, An Inconvenient Truth, Asian financial crisis, Bear Stearns, Berlin Wall, Bob Geldof, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, classic study, credit crunch, Dava Sobel, deindustrialization, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, discovery of the americas, Doha Development Round, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, flying shuttle, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, global reserve currency, global supply chain, Great Leap Forward, illegal immigration, income per capita, invention of gunpowder, James Watt: steam engine, joint-stock company, Kenneth Rogoff, land reform, land tenure, lateral thinking, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, Meghnad Desai, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, new economy, New Urbanism, one-China policy, open economy, Pearl River Delta, pension reform, price stability, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, special economic zone, spinning jenny, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, the scientific method, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Westphalian system, Xiaogang Anhui farmers, zero-sum game

But China’s ultimate objective, namely reunification, has proved beyond reach because the Taiwanese themselves have remained firmly opposed to it, with the tacit support of the Americans. Indeed, China’s hopes were to be thwarted by a most unexpected development, a growing sense of Taiwanese identity culminating in the electoral defeat of the Kuomintang (KMT), which, in principle at least, had always supported a one-China policy, and the victory of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). After the election of the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian as president in 2000, Taiwan pursued a policy of desinicization and increasingly assertive nationalism. This happened to coincide with growing economic interdependence between China and Taiwan, which, though resisted for a period by Chen and his predecessor as president, Lee Teng-hui,116 has accelerated to the point where, by 2003, half of the top 1,000 Taiwanese firms, including all the major computer companies, had invested in the mainland, usually in manufacturing subsidiaries.

Four Battlegrounds by Paul Scharre

2021 United States Capitol attack, 3D printing, active measures, activist lawyer, AI winter, AlphaGo, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, artificial general intelligence, ASML, augmented reality, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Big Tech, bitcoin, Black Lives Matter, Boeing 737 MAX, Boris Johnson, Brexit referendum, business continuity plan, business process, carbon footprint, chief data officer, Citizen Lab, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, coronavirus, COVID-19, crisis actor, crowdsourcing, DALL-E, data is not the new oil, data is the new oil, data science, deep learning, deepfake, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, Deng Xiaoping, digital map, digital rights, disinformation, Donald Trump, drone strike, dual-use technology, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, fake news, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of journalism, future of work, game design, general purpose technology, Geoffrey Hinton, geopolitical risk, George Floyd, global supply chain, GPT-3, Great Leap Forward, hive mind, hustle culture, ImageNet competition, immigration reform, income per capita, interchangeable parts, Internet Archive, Internet of things, iterative process, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Kevin Kelly, Kevin Roose, large language model, lockdown, Mark Zuckerberg, military-industrial complex, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, natural language processing, new economy, Nick Bostrom, one-China policy, Open Library, OpenAI, PalmPilot, Parler "social media", pattern recognition, phenotype, post-truth, purchasing power parity, QAnon, QR code, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, reshoring, ride hailing / ride sharing, robotic process automation, Rodney Brooks, Rubik’s Cube, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, side project, Silicon Valley, slashdot, smart cities, smart meter, Snapchat, social software, sorting algorithm, South China Sea, sparse data, speech recognition, Steve Bannon, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, supply-chain attack, surveillance capitalism, systems thinking, tech worker, techlash, telemarketer, The Brussels Effect, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, TikTok, trade route, TSMC

Yet these measures have not prevented escalating tensions, and U.S.-China air and naval incidents have continued. The United States and China have a hotline to allow for communication in a crisis. U.S. officials have complained China hasn’t used it. Kurt Campbell, the Biden administration’s top White House official on China policy, said in 2021, “China has generally resisted any effective efforts at these kinds of confidence-building, crisis management procedures. In the past, the hotlines that have been set up have just rung, kind of endlessly in empty rooms.” In early 2021, the Chinese government refused a request by U.S.

George Marshall: Defender of the Republic by David L. Roll

anti-communist, Bletchley Park, British Empire, Charles Lindbergh, Cornelius Vanderbilt, David Brooks, Defenestration of Prague, Donald Trump, European colonialism, fear of failure, invisible hand, MITM: man-in-the-middle, Monroe Doctrine, mutually assured destruction, one-China policy, one-state solution, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, Suez canal 1869, trade liberalization, Works Progress Administration, yellow journalism

Byrnes had already articulated his overall view: Marshall should use U.S. economic and military aid as leverage to “force” Chiang to negotiate a cease-fire and form a coalition government with Mao’s Communists.13 Byrnes delegated the task of drafting detailed instructions to Undersecretary of State Acheson and John Carter Vincent, the State Department’s expert on China policy (one of Hurley’s “superiors” that he complained about in his letter of resignation). Marshall rejected their initial draft, saying it lacked clarity and would not be understood by the American public. He insisted on revising it with the help of a few trusted army officers. During periods when Marshall was not testifying, Acheson worked with Marshall for hours to talk through and hammer out language acceptable to the State Department and Marshall.