Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

226 results back to index


pages: 358 words: 93,969

Climate Change by Joseph Romm

carbon footprint, Climatic Research Unit, decarbonisation, demand response, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, failed state, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), knowledge worker, mass immigration, performance metric, renewable energy transition, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, the scientific method

Because irreversibility is such a unique and consequential fact about climate change, the world’s leading climate scientists (and governments) took extra measures to emphasize the issue in the most recent international assessment of climate science by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—the November 2014 full, final “synthesis” report in its Fifth Assessment all of the scientific and economic literature. In the IPCC’s final “synthesis” report of its Fourth Assessment, issued in 2007, irreversibility was only mentioned two times and there was minimal discussion in the Summary for Policymakers. Seven years later, the “Summary for Policymakers” of the IPCC’s synthesis report mentions “irreversible” 14 times and has extended discussions of exactly what it means and why it matters. The full report has an even more detailed discussion. What do the world’s leading scientists mean by “irreversible impacts”? In the latest IPCC report, they explain that Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6 [where emissions are cut sharply].

In 1988, the nations of the world came together to task the top scientists of the world with regularly summarizing and reporting on the latest research and observations. The central purpose of the resulting United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was to provide the best science to policymakers. In the ensuing years, the science has gotten stronger, in large part because observations around the world confirmed the vast majority of the early predictions made by climate scientists. At the same time, many cornerstone elements of our climate began changing far faster than most scientists had projected. The Arctic began losing sea ice several decades ahead of every single climate model used by the IPCC, which in turn means the Arctic region warmed up even faster than scientists expected. At the same time, the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which contain enough water to raise sea levels ultimately 25–80 meters (80–260 feet), have begun disintegrating “a century ahead of schedule,” as Richard Alley, a leading climatologist put it in 2005.

One of the reasons that there is some confusion in the public discussion of future warming is that many science communicators, including many in the media, focus on just no. 1, the equilibrium or fast-feedback climate sensitivity. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its 2007 Fourth Assessment that the fast-feedback sensitivity is “likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement of models with observations is not as good for those values.” Although the majority of studies tend to be in the middle of the range, some have been near the low end and some have been at the higher end. For the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC slightly changed the likely range to 1.5°C to 4.5°C. Focusing on the fast-feedback sensitivity perhaps made sense a decade ago when there was some reasonable chance of stabilizing at 550 ppm atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (double the preindustrial level) and some reasonable possibility that the slow feedbacks might not matter.


Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All by Michael Shellenberger

Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, Bernie Sanders, Bob Geldof, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, clean water, Corn Laws, coronavirus, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, energy transition, failed state, Gary Taubes, global value chain, Google Earth, hydraulic fracturing, index fund, Indoor air pollution, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, land tenure, Live Aid, LNG terminal, long peace, manufacturing employment, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, Potemkin village, purchasing power parity, Ralph Nader, renewable energy transition, Steven Pinker, supervolcano, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, trade route, union organizing, WikiLeaks, Y2K

., 213–14 Gorillas, 68–70, 72–75, 76, 79, 281–82, 395n Goulding, Ellie, ix Gourmet (magazine), 132 Government Accountability Office (GAO), 218 Grandin, Temple, 134, 136–37, 138, 144 Grand Inga Dam, 70–71, 84, 245–46, 276, 386n Grass-fed cattle, 130–31 Great African War, 7 Great Ape Program, 74, 77 Great Escape, 92–95 Great Pacific Garbage Patch, 48 Greenhouse gas emissions, 2, 21, 24, 43, 60–61, 128, 130, 193, 253–54 “Greening,” 32–33 Green New Deal, 3–5, 154, 176, 187, 217, 267 Green Nuclear Deal, 278 Greenpeace, 86, 108, 113, 163, 226, 248 Greenpeace Brazil, 31–32, 38–41 Green utopianism, 267 Grijalva, Raúl, 257–59 Habitat conservation, 68 Haidt, Jonathan, 264 Haiti, 15 Hall, Craig, 202 Hallam, Roger, 10, 11, 22 Halliburton, 205, 219 H&M, 85, 102, 105 Hanno the Navigator, 72 “Hansel and Gretel,” 37 Hansen, James, 181 Hardin, Garrett, 236–37 Harris, Kamala, 216 Harvard University, 93–96, 104, 139, 225, 250, 252, 261 Hawksbill sea turtles, 52–53 Heal, Geoffrey, 88 Heart disease, 132–33 Heartland Institute, 206 Heidegger, Martin, 187 Heritage Foundation, 206 Hetch Hetchy Project, 386n High-fat diets, 131–33, 140 High-yield farming, 6, 91–92 Hillary, Edmund, 155 Hinkley Point C Nuclear Plant, 146 Hitler, Adolf, 233 Hohenkammer Statement, 13–14 Holdren, John, 239–40, 242, 243, 258 Hole in the World, A (Rhodes), 269–70 Hollywood, 2, 7, 27, 162, 164, 165, 222 Homosexuality, 95 Hoover Dam, 84 Höppe, Peter, 13 Human evolution, 133–34 Human-wildlife conflicts, 17–18, 74–75 Hunter-gatherers, 36–37, 134 Hurricane Katrina, 14 Hurricanes, 14–15 Hurricane Sandy, 16 Hyatt, John Wesley, 54, 55 Hydraulic fracturing (fracking), 117–20, 123, 124 Hydroelectricity, 177, 179–80, 228–29, 238 in Congo, 70–71, 82, 83–84, 245–46, 276 power density and, 100, 102–3, 191–92, 386n Hydrogenation, 112 Hypocrisy, 201–4, 222–24, 246–47 Ice sheets, 2, 3, 25, 262 I’ll Take My Stand (Ransom), 234 Impossible Burger, 135 Inconvenient Truth, An (documentary), 217 India author’s visit, 247–49 population control, 235–36, 237 sustainable development in, 247–49 India Great Famine of 1876–1878, 232 Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, 15 Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant, 284 India-Pakistan relations, 173 Indonesia, 88–89, 92–93, 96–97, 277 Indonesia oil, 211–12 Industrial Revolution, 95–96, 227 Infrastructure, 64, 225–26, 247 power of electricity, 226–29 Inga dam, 70–71, 84, 245–46, 276, 386n Insect die-off, 195–96 Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, 195 Intensive farming, 38, 39, 42–43, 130–31, 135–36, 139 InterAcademy Council, 255–56 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 114, 284–85 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, xiii, 1–6, 10, 11–12, 14, 15–16, 23, 30, 126–27, 128, 244, 252, 253–57 Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), 65–66, 67, 79 International Energy Agency (IEA), 26 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 114–15, 252 International Rivers, 245–46 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 57, 59, 67, 76 International Whaling Commission (IWC), 113 Inuits, 109 “Invasive species,” 66 Invenergy, 207 IPCC. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iran, 173–74 Ireland Great Potato Famine, 231–32, 233 Iroquois Indians, 110 Israel, 173–74 Ivanpah Solar Farm, 188, 189, 197 Jackson, Kathleen, 155, 156 Jacobson, Mark, 179–80, 186, 219 James, William, 261 Japan plastic waste, 49 whaling, 109–10 Jeffrey, Lauren, 21–22, 23, 272–73 John, Elton, 223, 247 Johnson, Lyndon, 236 Jonas, Nick, 222 Jones, Paul Tudor, 218 Judeo-Christianity, 230, 263–64, 265–66 Julius Caesar, 53 Kabanda, Caleb, 7–8, 17, 18, 68, 70, 71, 79, 80, 81, 84, 245, 280 Kabila, Joseph, 9 Kao, Maggie, 208–9 Kashmir, 173 Kavanagh, Michael, 70, 83, 84 Keating, Dave, 41–42 Keeley, Jon, 5, 20–21 Kennedy, John F., 161, 172 Kenya wind farm, 183 Keratin, 53 Kerosene, 111, 115 Khosla, Vinod, 218 Khrushchev, Nikita, 172 Kier, Samuel, 110–11 Knight, Phil, 87 Koch Brothers, 220 Kolbert, Elizabeth, 66, 79 Kroenig, Matthew, 174 Kubrick, Stanley, 172 Labor productivity, 90, 95–96, 103 temperature and, 34, 304n Landless Workers’ Movement, 29 Lanjouw, Annette, 142 Leahy, Patrick, 228 Leakey, Louis, 77 Leakey, Richard, 66, 77, 79 Leapfrogging, 97–98, 224, 226–29, 248, 249 Learner, Howard, 206–7 Learning curve, 153, 170 Lee, Helen Jeehyun, 94, 98–99, 177, 280 Congo visit, 7, 68–69, 71, 281–82 New Zealand visit, 55–58 LeMay, Curtis, 172 Liberalism and vegetarianism, 135–36 Lifeboat ethics, 235–39 “Lifeboat Ethics” (Hardin), 237 Life expectancy, 93, 94, 225 Light-emitting diodes (LEDs), 98 Lighting, 98 Limits to Growth, The (report), 237 “Limits to growth” hypothesis, 237, 240 Linear no-threshold (LNT), 150 Linowes, Lisa, 181–83, 194, 196–97 “Little Red Riding Hood,” 37 “Livestock revolution,” 142 London Fashion Week, 85, 267 Loneliness, 272, 274 Los Angeles Times, 216 Lost souls, 269–74 Lovins, Amory, 166, 167–68, 186, 187–88, 219, 238–39, 243 Low-yield farming, 6, 91–92 LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), 81, 84, 99, 115 Lung disease, 117 Lunnon, Sarah, x–xii, 9–12, 268, 271 McClendon, Aubrey, 209 McAleer, Phelim, 118 MacArthur, Robert H., 66 MacArthur Foundation, 243 McCarthy, Joseph, 260 McCartney, Stella, 222 McClendon, Aubrey, 207 McDonald’s, 136 McKibben, Bill, 260–61 climate change and, 3, 260–61 fracking and natural gas, 118–19, 123 hypocrisy on funding, 202–3, 220 Malthusian ideas of, 243–44 nuclear energy opposition, 154, 204 McNeilage, Alastair, 68, 75, 76, 81–83 Macron, Emmanuel, 41–42 Madden, Francine, 74–75, 78–79 Madonna, 27 Making of the Atomic Bomb, The (Rhodes), 171–72, 267–68 Malaysia, plastic waste, 49 Mallaby, Sebastian, 245 Malthus, Thomas Robert, 230–31, 232, 234–35, 238, 240–41 Malthusianism, 230–45 Manhattan Project, 156 Manufacturing, 89–92, 94, 95–97, 170, 260 Manufacturing ladder, 102–5 Maori people, 36 Marchetti, Cesare, 114–16, 120, 122–23, 252, 283 Margarine, 112 Marine Mammal Protection Act, 112–13 Marx, Karl, 235 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 4, 51, 105, 155 Mass extinctions, 65–66, 67 Mattel, 86, 92–93, 105 Maullin, Richard, 212 Mayhew, Robert, 232–33 Meat consumption, 126–29, 134, 135, 137–38, 141 Mediterranean diet, 131 Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, 223, 247 Mein Kampf (Hitler), 233 Memento mori, 279 Merchants of Doubt (Oreskes and Conway), 250–51, 252 Merkel, Angela, 42 Merode, Emmanuel de, 70–72, 77–79, 83, 281 Merrimack Manufacturing Company, 101 Mesquite Solar, 361n Metabolic syndrome, 133 Methane, 43, 61, 116, 118, 119, 120, 130–31 Miami, Florida, 14, 186 Migratory Bird Treaty Act, 194, 198 Moas, 36 Mokhiber, Russell, 208–9 Morrissey, Steven Patrick, 95 Mountain gorillas.

., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 170–172. 75. Roger Pielke, Jr., “My Unhappy Life as a Climate Heretic,” Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2016, https://www.wsj.com. 76. Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker et al., eds., Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX_Full_Report-1.pdf, 9. 77. Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 175. 78. Roger Pielke, Jr., “Disasters Cost More than Ever—but Not Because of Climate Change,” FiveThirtyEight, March 19, 2014, https://fivethirtyeight.com. 79. Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 174. 80.

Just below the bold headline was a photograph of a six-year-old boy playing with a dead animal’s bones.1 Said another headline in The Washington Post on the very same day: “The World Has Just Over a Decade to Get Climate Change Under Control, U.N. Scientists Say.”2 Those stories in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other media outlets around the world were based on a special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is a United Nations body of 195 scientists and other members from around the globe responsible for assessing science related to climate change. Two more IPCC reports would follow in 2019, both of which warned of similarly dire consequences: worsening natural disasters, sea-level rise, desertification, and land degradation. Moderate warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius would cause “long-lasting or irreversible” harm, they said, and climate change might devastate food production and landscapes.


pages: 391 words: 99,963

The Weather of the Future by Heidi Cullen

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, air freight, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, availability heuristic, back-to-the-land, bank run, California gold rush, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, energy security, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Kickstarter, mass immigration, megacity, millennium bug, out of africa, Silicon Valley, smart cities, trade route, urban planning, Y2K

Held is a senior research scientist at a division of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): its Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), a prominent climate modeling center in Princeton, New Jersey. Few people understand the complexity of rainfall in the Sahel better than Held. A member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Held served as a lead author of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report chapter on regional climate projections. The IPCC’s regional projections use fourteen state-of-the-art climate models to provide a glimpse into the future. The GFDL climate model is one of the best in the world. And if you believe this model’s projections for the Sahel, you’ll be very worried about the future. Held knows why the GFDL model behaves as it does; he just doesn’t know if the real world will behave the same way.

These were serious people, people who were not prone to exaggeration. And the data spoke for itself,” Rahman says. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the scientific group responsible for building the data and models that convinced Rahman, has issued a very strong statement about the changes that are taking place in Bangladesh. Temperatures in Bangladesh have already increased. The Fourth Assessment report indicates an increasing trend of about 1.8°F in May and 0.9°F in November during the fourteen-year period from 1985 to 1998. Annual average temperature in South Asia (5°N to 30°N, 65°E to 100°E) is projected to increase 3.2°F by 2050 and 5.6°F by 2100, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The seasonal values for South Asia are shown in the accompanying table. Temperatures in Bangladesh are projected to increase 1.8°F and 2.5°F by 2030 and 2050, respectively, according to a recent assessment by the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS).

Arrhenius calculated how much the temperature of the Earth would drop if the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was halved; he also calculated the temperature increase to be expected from a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere—a rise of about 8°F. More than a century later, the estimates from state-of-the-art climate models doing the same calculations to determine the increase in temperature due to a doubling of the CO2 concentration show that the calculation by Arrhenius was in the right ballpark. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesized the results from eighteen climate models used by groups around the world to estimate climate sensitivity and its uncertainty. They estimated that a doubling of CO2 would lead to an increase in global average temperature of about 5.4°F, with an uncertainty spanning the range from about 3.6°F to 8.1°F. It’s amazing that Arrhenius, doing his calculations by hand and with very few data, came so close to the much more detailed calculations that can be done today.


pages: 417 words: 109,367

The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, business cycle, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, Peter Calthorpe, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve

See International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Iler, Stuart income increase climate adaptation and climate mitigation and fertility rate decline and intergenerational equity and open-access social orders and trend overview India biotech crops in climate change negotiations with farmer suicide in fertility rate and life expectancy in Green Revolution in oil consumption patterns for Orissa cyclone Industrial Revolution industrialization commodity super-cycles and fertility rate decline and innovation trial and error in pollution correlation to Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) Inhofe, James innovation cognitive biases against elitist resistance to fertility rate decline and free-market capitalist drive for population projections and positive possibilities with precautionary resistance to trial and error for innovation sectors and types additive manufacturing autonomous vehicles biofuel biotech crops cellular climate geoengineering DDT electric vehicle energy, clean energy efficiency food production Green Revolution lasers metal nanotechnology nuclear power oil pharmaceutical resource efficiency solar power insulin Intellectual Ventures intergenerational equity Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate adaptation on climate mitigation on extinction on natural disasters on natural gas efficiency on ocean acidification on temperature increase on water privatization International Energy Agency (IEA) International Food Policy Research Institute International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) International Monetary Fund International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Ioannidis, John IPCC. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iran ITIF. See Information Technology and Innovation Foundation IUCN. See International Union for the Conservation of Nature Jacks, David Jacobson, Mark Jaggard, Keith Jenkins, Martin Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Kahan, Dan Kazman, Sam Kennedy, Ted Kershen, Drew Klare, Michael Klein, Naomi Kloor, Keith Knobloch, Kevin Kricher, John Kron, Thomas Kyoto Protocol Lackey, Robert Lackner, Klaus Langmuir, Irving lasers Leffall, LaSalle D., Jr.

destruction caused by Superstorm Sandy: Greenpeace, “Hurricane Sandy = Climate Change,” Extreme Weather and Climate Change, 2013. www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/campaigns/global-warming-and-energy/Extreme-Weather-and-Climate-Change/. hurricanes, typhoons, hailstorms, or tornadoes: IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/. economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, November 2014, 16. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf. “there has been little change in drought”: Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Michael Roderick, “Little Change in Global Drought over the Past 60 Years.”

What the Science Says The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing; the world has warmed; glaciers are melting; and the seas are rising. These facts are not scientifically in dispute. As Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, the 2013 report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), states: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.” The report adds, “Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.” These findings were restated and bolstered in November 2014 in the IPCC’s Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. The vast majority of climate researchers agree that man-made global warming is now under way. The amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, gases that tend to warm the atmosphere (greenhouse gases or GHG), are at levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.


pages: 257 words: 67,152

The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels by Alex Epstein

addicted to oil, carbon footprint, clean water, glass ceiling, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), LNG terminal, oil shale / tar sands, profit motive, Saturday Night Live, the scientific method

Goklany, “Weather and Safety: The Amazing Decline in Deaths from Extreme Weather in an Era of Global Warming, 1900–2010,” Reason Foundation, Policy Study 393, Sept. 2011, http://reason .org/files/deaths_from_extreme_weather_1900_2010.pdf. 41. Ibid. 42. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “13.3.3.3 Implications of Regime Stringency: Linking Goals, Participation, and Timing,” IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, 2007, www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13-ens13-3-3-3 .html. 43. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Potential of Renewable Energy Outlined in Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” press release, May 9, 2011, http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/press/content/potential-of-renewable-energy-outlined-report-by-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change. 44. Kirsten Gibson, “Rokita Holds Town Hall in Lebanon.” Purdue Exponent, Aug. 26, 2013, www.purdueexponent.org/city_state/article _bd15b4a3-ce01-55b8-a972-27109a6eb44e.html. 45.

Peter Voser, “Getting the Future Energy Mix Right: How the American Shale Revolution Is Changing the World,” Shell, speech, Boston, Mar. 21, 2013, www.shell.com/global/aboutshell/media/speeches-and-webcasts/2013/getting-the-future-energy-mix-right.html. 4. Elizabeth Bumiller and Adam Nagourney, “Bush: ‘America Is Addicted to Oil,’” New York Times, Feb. 1, 2006, www.nytimes.com/2006/02/01/world/americas/01iht-state.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0. 5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Potential of Renewable Energy Outlined in Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” press release, Abu Dhabi, May 9, 2011, http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/press/content/potential-of-renewable-energy-outlined-report-by-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change. 6. Justin Gillis and Kenneth Chang, “Scientists Warn of Rising Oceans,” New York Times, May 12, 2014, www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/science/earth/collapse-of-parts-of-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-has-begun-scientists-say.html?_r=0; Ben Wolford, “Is It Too Late to Save Our Cities from Sea Level Rises?”

Even fossil fuel companies make statements like the one the former CEO of Shell made in 2013: “We believe climate change is real and time is running out to take real action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”3 President George W. Bush was the person who popularized the expression “addicted to oil.”4 The debate over our addiction to fossil fuels is usually over how dangerous the addiction is and how quickly we can get rid of it—not whether we have one. And the most prominent groups say we must get rid of it very quickly. For years, the Nobel Prize–winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has demanded that the United States and other industrialized countries cut carbon dioxide emissions to 20 percent of 1990 levels by 2050—and the United States has joined hundreds of other countries in agreeing to this goal.5 Every day, we hear of new predictions from prestigious experts reinforcing the calls for massive restrictions on fossil fuel use. As I write this, news about melting ice in West Antarctica is leading to dire predictions of sea level rises: “Scientists Warn of Rising Oceans from Polar Melt,” reports the New York Times; “Is It Too Late to Save Our Cities from Sea-Level Rise?”


pages: 364 words: 101,193

Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Climatic Research Unit, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Live Aid, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, price stability, South China Sea, supervolcano

The scenes lingered in my mind even as the city was emptied and the bedraggled survivors of New Orleans and the wider Gulf region were packed off to temporary shelters in Texas and elsewhere, where half a million still remain at the time of writing: arguably the first climate refugees, displaced permanently from their homes. I kept wondering: where next? What will happen as the world warms bit by bit? With up to six degrees Celsius of global warming on the cards over the next hundred years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), what will happen to our coasts, our towns, our forests, our rivers, our croplands and our mountains? Will we all, as some environmentalists suggest, be reduced to eking out a living from the shattered remains of civilisation in Arctic refuges, or will life go on much as before-if only a little warmer? As I pondered these questions, I had already begun to sift through the latest scientific literature on global warming.

In retrospect, this is perhaps surprising: it contained clear evidence that a climate only a degree or so warmer than today could melt enough Greenland ice to drown coastal cities around the globe, cities that are home to tens of millions of people. Nor was it just a one-off: more recent work confirms that Greenland's contribution to the higher sea levels of the Eemian was indeed somewhere between 2 and 5 metres. The 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did conclude that higher temperatures would eventually melt the Greenland ice sheet-but only over centuries to millennia, and very little contribution from Greenland was factored into the twenty-first-century sea level rise projections of between 9 and 88 cm. As warnings go, it wasn't a terribly urgent one: most people have trouble caring about what happens 100 years hence, let alone bothering about whether their distant descendants in the year 3000 might be getting their feet wet.

D. and Billie 184 Hamilton, Dr Gordon 69 Hansen, James 27, 65-6, 67, 70, 71-2, 115, 166 Harappan civilisation 174, 175 Hardin, Garrett 264 Harrison, Gary 76-7 Harvard University 204 Hawaiian 92 Hayward, Dr Alan 110, 111 heat 61, 122-3, 193, 197, 209-10, 231 heatstroke 57-8, 62 heatwaves 6, 186, 197, 202 Alpine 30, 31, 177 Australia 173 Europe 57-63, 150, 178-9, 202 winter 180 Helheim Glacier, Greenland 68, 69 Higgins, Craig 29 Higgins, John 204 High Tide xiii-ix, xv, 46-7, 77, 81 Hilbert, David 33-4 Hill, Robert 108 Himalayas 80, 108, 138, 173 Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove 35-6, 37, 38 Hoerling, Martin 21, 102-3, 104 Holland, Marika 26-7 Holocene 20, 21, 24, 66, 107 Hong Kong 171 housing 183, 272, 276 Houston, Texas 125-8 Howat, Ian 67, 68, 69 Huntingford, Chris 273-4 hurricanes 42-6, 125-8, 129, 146 ancient 219, 229-30 Catarina 42-3 Europe 44-5, 149, 185 Floyd 146 formation 42-6 Galveston 1900 126 hypercanes 230 Katrina xiv, 38, 42, 46, 126, 166 modelling 106 Odessa 126, 127 sea temperature and 126, 229-30 storm surges xiv, 145-9, 165, 182 strong 125-8, 219, 230 Rita 46 Vince 44 Wilma 46 hydroelectricity 17-18, 58, 62, 84-5, 87, 140, 178, 181 hydrogen sulphide 233, 237 hydrological cycle 224 ice ages xvii-xviii, 6, 9, 10, 24, 135 and El Niño 114 modelling 106, 251 ice-albedo feedback 28, 70-1 ice caps 26-7, 64-72, 81, 130-1, 197, 208, 220, 246 ice cores 6, 14, 15-16, 64, 81 ice sheets 64-72, 129, 130, 131, 146, 166, 167-70, 176, 193 ice shelves 168-9 icebergs 68, 113 Iceland 130-1 Inconvenient Truth, An 263 India xxii, 77-80, 135-7, 173 agricultural 78-9, 137, 173 ancient 218 drought 173 Environment Ministry 78 famine 78-9 monsoon 21, 52, 79, 135-7, 173, 209, 219 water table 173 warming 102, 104 Indian Ocean 136 Indonesia xvii, 118-19, 121, 136-7, 206, 211, 276 Indus, River 137-42, 174 Industrial Revolution 112 Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 77 interglacial, Eemian 52, 63-6, 107 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) xiv, xx-xxi, 13, 24, 65, 66, 70, 71, 72, 77, 118, 130, 158, 173, 217, 225, 246, 251, 256 International Energy Agency (IEA) 258 intertropical convergence zone 151, 193 International Rice Research Institute 157 Inuit peoples 76, 77 irrigation 8, 58, 82, 86, 140, 144, 158, 196 Italy 44, 63 Jacobshavn Isbrae glacier, Greenland 68 James Cook University 33 Japan 194 Jequetepeque River 82, 83 jet streams 28 Jones, Brian 63 Jones, Chris 273-4 Joshi, S.


pages: 258 words: 77,601

Everything Under the Sun: Toward a Brighter Future on a Small Blue Planet by Ian Hanington

agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, Exxon Valdez, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), oil shale / tar sands, stem cell, sustainable-tourism, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, urban planning, urban sprawl

In 2010, government negotiators from around the world met in Busan, South Korea, where they approved the creation of a new global science body to act as an “early warning system” to inform government leaders on major biodiversity declines and to identify what governments must do to reverse these damaging trends. This global biodiversity scientific body is modelled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which, through science, has catalyzed worldwide understanding of and action on global warming. Despite the efforts of huge multinational oil companies to discredit its work, the IPCC has compiled the best available science on the causes and impacts of global warming and charted the most effective ways for us to solve the problem. In doing so, it has ensured that climate change has remained a priority for governments, and it has proven to be an invaluable tool to help the media understand and report on the issue—independent of politics or PR spin. We hope the newly created “IPCC for nature” will play a similar role in educating, inspiring, and mobilizing policy-makers and the public to take decisive action to stem the biodiversity crisis.

Science is clear about the threat of climate change WHY DOES THE public often pay more attention to climate-change deniers than climate scientists? Why do denial arguments that have been thoroughly debunked still show up regularly in the media? Some researchers from New York’s Fordham University may have found some answers. David Budescu and his colleagues asked 223 volunteers to read sentences from reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The responses revealed some fundamental misunderstandings about how science works. Science is a process. Scientists gather and compare evidence, then construct hypotheses that “make sense” of the data and suggest further tests of the hypothesis. Other scientists try to find flaws in the hypothesis with their own data or experiments. Eventually, a body of knowledge builds, and scientists become more and more certain of their theories.

The University of East Anglia has since posted its research and data online, and all of the emails in question have also been posted. As for criticisms of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s global assessment of climate change, a review found that despite “a very small number of near-trivial errors in about five hundred pages,” the report contained “no errors that would undermine the main conclusions.” Yet another independent study supported Pennsylvania State University climatologist Michael Mann. Deniers have been attacking Mann’s research for years. Another blow to the deniers’ arsenal came when London’s Sunday Times was forced in June 2010 to run an apology and retraction for an article it published in January questioning the findings of the IPCC report on rainfall changes in the Amazon. The Times admitted that it had misrepresented the views of climate researcher Simon Lewis and that, contrary to its article, the findings of the IPCC report were backed by peer-reviewed research.


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Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Berlin Wall, Brownian motion, carbon footprint, Cepheid variable, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, commoditize, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, desegregation, different worldview, double helix, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fudge factor, ghettoisation, global pandemic, Harlow Shapley and Heber Curtis, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, sharing economy, smart grid, Solar eclipse in 1919, stem cell, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, University of East Anglia, War on Poverty, white flight, Winter of Discontent, working poor, yellow journalism, zero-sum game

Life Under a Cloud: American Anxiety about the Atom. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1999. p. 117. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Chapter 10.6.2: The Himalayan Glaciers. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Introduction to the Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-intro.pdf. World Bank. Countries and Economies. n.d. http://data.worldbank.org/country. Xu, J., et al.

McClatchy Newspapers, December 15, 2009. www.mcclatchydc.com/2009/12/15/v-print/80663/commentary-climategate-is-a-lesson.html. [opinion] 74. Sensenbrenner, F. J. Sensenbrenner Urges IPCC to Exclude Climategate Scientists. Letters from the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, December 8, 2009. http://republicans.globalwarming.house.gov/Press/PRArticle.aspx?NewsID=2749. 75. Palin, S. Sarah Palin on the Politicization of the Copenhagen Climate Conference. Washington Post, December 9, 2009. www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/08/AR2009120803402.html. 76. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Chapter 10.6.2: The Himalayan Glaciers. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html. 77. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Dale, 192–93, 196–97 Hall, Wilson, 311 Halpern, Michael, 149 Handler, Philip, 104 Hansen, James, 16 Hardin, Garrett, 247–48, 268 Harris, Sam, 280–81 Hartwig, Robert, 264 Hasnain, Syed, 211 Hayward, Tony, 266 H-bomb, 81, 92, 109 Health care reform and bill, 200, 225 Hedde, Carl, 264 Henry VIII, 45 Hertzsprung, Ejnar, 66 Highway system, 82 Hitchcock, Albert Spear, 60 Hitler, Adolf, 73–74 Hobbes, Thomas, 25, 51, 133 Hockey stick graph, 198–99, 201, 214 Holdren, John, 199–200, 228–29 Holt, Rush, 14–15, 149 Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 224–26, 255 Homosexuality, 290 Hooker telescope, 65–66 Höppe, Peter, 264 Horace, 92 Horowitz, David, 31 Hoyle, Fred, 70 Hubble, Edwin, 61, 65–66, 68, 70–72, 104, 119–20, 309 Hubble, John, 265 Hubble’s Law, 69 Hubble Space Telescope, 71 Hubris, 98, 138 Hughes, Malcolm, 201 Huizenga, Bill, 222 Humason, Milton, 67–71 Hume, David, 52–53, 247, 249, 252 Hurricane Katrina joke, 296–97 Hussein, Saddam, 11 Hydrogen bomb (H-bomb), 81, 92, 109 I Ideas, empowering, 56–57 Id, Jeff, 201 Ignorance, 252 Impetus, concept of, 118–19 Inclusiveness, 126, 238 Inconvenient Truth, An (Gore documentary), 199, 237–38 Individualism, 249–50, 252, 273–74 Inductive reasoning, 44, 67 Indulgences, 42 Inhofe, James, 196, 214–16, 221 Innovation, 57–59 Insurance companies, 263–67 Intellectual flight, 56, 75 Intellectual honesty, 44, 116, 138, 177, 289 ”Intelligent design,” 15, 168–69, 289 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 199, 212–13 Intuitive knowledge, 50, 53 “Invisible hand” theory, 3–4, 87, 301–2 IPCC, 199, 212–13 J Jackson, Nancy, 239–40 James, King, 45 Jefferson, Thomas, 3, 34, 37, 46–49, 51–53, 57, 59, 87, 293–94 Johnson, Lyndon B., 96, 226–27 Jones, John, 173 Jones, Phil, 201–3, 215 Judeo-Christian ethic, 14–15 Just world belief, 282–84 K Kadanoff, Leo, 148–49 Kamen, Dean, 287, 294 Kant, Immanuel, 107 Keeling, Charles, 188–89 Keeling curve, 188, 230–31 Kempthorne, Dirk, 196–97 Kennedy, John F., 93–96, 98 Kennedy, Robert F.


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Rethinking Capitalism: Economics and Policy for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth by Michael Jacobs, Mariana Mazzucato

balance sheet recession, banking crisis, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Bretton Woods, business climate, business cycle, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, collaborative economy, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Detroit bankruptcy, double entry bookkeeping, Elon Musk, endogenous growth, energy security, eurozone crisis, factory automation, facts on the ground, fiat currency, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial intermediation, forward guidance, full employment, G4S, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, investor state dispute settlement, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, Mont Pelerin Society, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, new economy, non-tariff barriers, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, price stability, private sector deleveraging, quantitative easing, QWERTY keyboard, railway mania, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, the built environment, The Great Moderation, The Spirit Level, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, total factor productivity, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, universal basic income, very high income

., ‘Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet’, Science, vol. 347, no. 6223, 13 February 2015, http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855 (accessed 12 April 2016). 32 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ (accessed 12 April 2016). 33 The first assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was published in 1990. See https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_first_assessment_1990_wg1.shtml (accessed 12 April 2016). 34 T. O. Wiedmann et al., ‘The material footprint of nations’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of America, vol. 112, no. 20, 2015, pp. 6271–6, http://doi:10.1073/pnas.1220362110 (accessed 12 April 2016). 35 There is a lively debate among monetary theorists over whether governments, as opposed to central banks, do in practice create new money through government spending, or whether they have to acquire bank-credit money through taxation or borrowing prior to government spending.

In the transition to a low-carbon future, it may prove easier to drive change than to predict it. Notes 1 World Meteorological Organisation, Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, no. 11, 9 November 2015, http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/ghg-bulletin_11_en.pdf (accessed 14 April 2016). 2 IPCC, ‘Summary for policymakers’, in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ (accessed 14 April 2016). 3 Ibid. 4 Ibid. 5 Dietz and Stern show that accounting for the endogeneity of growth leads to a much stronger case for climate policy action than indicated in standard economic models. In this chapter we extend this basic logic to argue that accounting for the drivers of growth and innovation affords the opportunity to dramatically lower the costs of reducing emissions.

Unless stronger action is taken to curb and reverse rising emissions—not just of carbon dioxide, but also of methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—the world is with high probability heading for warming beyond 2°C. On current trends, the temperature rise could exceed 4°C by the end of the century.2 The economic impacts of warming above 2°C would be profound. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has listed the likely impacts. These include a higher incidence of extreme weather events (such as flooding, storm surges and droughts), leading to the risk of a breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services, particularly in coastal regions and cities; a heightened risk of food insecurity and breakdown of food systems resulting from changes in rainfall and reduced agricultural productivity; increased ill health and mortality from extreme heat events and food- and water-borne diseases; greater risks of displacement of peoples and conflict; and faster loss of terrestrial and marine ecosystems and species.


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The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking Cities, and the Remaking of the Civilized World by Jeff Goodell

Airbnb, carbon footprint, centre right, clean water, creative destruction, desegregation, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, failed state, fixed income, Frank Gehry, global pandemic, Google Earth, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), megacity, Murano, Venice glass, New Urbanism, Pearl River Delta, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, urban planning, urban renewal, wikimedia commons

Nature 517, no. 7535 (2015), 481. 7. eight feet by 2100: The estimated sea-level rise for 2100 in the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is twenty-six to ninety-eight centimeters (about one foot to three feet). But this does not include contributions from marine-based ice sheets in Antarctica, in part because, at the time the IPCC report was finalized, there was not enough confidence in scientists’ understanding of the dynamics of these ice sheets to make any sound projections. (New research published since the IPCC report was finalized has resolved some of that uncertainty.) See John Church and Peter Clark et al. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ In 2017, the US’s National Oceanic Atmospheric Association did its own evaluation of future sea-level rise, which included more recent papers on ice dynamics on main Antarctica.

“It showed us how much we didn’t understand about what is going on with the ice sheets,” said Peter Clark, a leading sea-level rise expert at Oregon State University. Clark was one of the lead authors on the sea-level rise section of the fifth (and most recent) report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was published in 2013—too soon for studies that explored the big melt in Greenland the year before to be included, as well as more recent studies that highlighted the fragility of West Antarctic glaciers. As a result, as soon as it was published, the 2013 IPCC report was already out of date. This matters a lot, because the IPCC reports are important documents, providing the scientific basis for global climate agreements and coastal planning around the world. The 2013 IPCC report, which projected a high end of possible sea-level rise of about 3 feet 2 inches, was particularly important, because it was the scientific basis for the 2015 climate treaty negotiations in Paris, which were viewed by many politicians and activists as the last good shot to get a meaningful global agreement to reduce carbon pollution.

A few weeks later, the Center on Climate Change and National Security disappeared. Climate deniers in Congress have learned to go after the Pentagon where it will feel it most: in the budget. In 2014, House Republicans tagged an amendment onto the Department of Defense appropriations bill that prohibited the Pentagon from spending any money implementing recommendations in the latest report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “The amendment had no effect on the Defense budget, since the IPCC’s recommendations don’t really apply to us,” one Pentagon insider told me. “But the intent was clear—this is going to be war.” Certainly what had been made clear was that any item in the budget that included the word “climate” was going to set off alarm bells. In 2016, the Republican-controlled House went even further, voting to bar the Department of Defense from spending money to evaluate how climate change would affect military training, combat, weapons purchases, and other needs.


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The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith

Bretton Woods, BRICs, business cycle, clean water, Climategate, colonial rule, deglobalization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, flex fuel, G4S, global supply chain, Google Earth, guest worker program, Hans Island, hydrogen economy, ice-free Arctic, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, land tenure, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, standardized shipping container, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Y2K

For the latest data, see http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/. The 2007 IPCC SRES B1, A1T, B2, A1B, A2, and A1FI illustrative marker scenarios are about 600, 700, 800, 850, 1,250, and 1,550 ppm, by century’s end respectively, with different scenarios reflecting different assumptions about controlling carbon emissions. Such numbers are two to five times preindustrial levels. IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report, Table 3.1. (Full reference IPCC Fourth Assessment Report [AR4], Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, A. Reisinger (eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland: 104 pp.) available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. 39 J. O’Neill, S.

Page 118: Maps by author using model data courtesy of Joseph Alcamo and Martina Flörke, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel. Page 126, 128: Climate model projections reprinted courtesy IPCC AR4 (see endnote 277 for full reference). Climate-change projection maps presented in Chapter Five were modified by permission of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.8, Cambridge University Press. Please note that the modifications made to these maps (“optimistic,” “moderate,” “pessimistic”) are for the purposes of this book only, and are not suggested or used by the IPCC. Pages 158-159: Maps by author using 2006 shipping data from AMSA, 2009 (see endnote 362). Page 166: Map by author. Page 212: Map by author.

., available at http://pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise/report.pdf. 261 The 2007 IPCC AR4 “consensus estimate” of 0.18 to 0.6 meters by 2100 may be too low. Other estimates suggest a possible range of 0.8-2.0 meters (W. T. Pfeffer et al., “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise,” Science 321, no. 5894 2008: 1340-1343) and 0.5-1.4 meters (S. Rahmstorf, “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise,” Science 315, no. 5810 [2007]: 368-370, DOI:10.1126/science.1135456.) 262 The main reason for this is that hurricanes and typhoons are fueled by sea surface temperatures. The Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates their intensity is “likely” to increase, meaning a >66% statistical probability. IPCC AR4 (2007). 263 Calculated from Table 2 of R.


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The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity by Toby Ord

3D printing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, availability heuristic, Columbian Exchange, computer vision, cosmological constant, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth, delayed gratification, demographic transition, Doomsday Clock, Drosophila, effective altruism, Elon Musk, Ernest Rutherford, global pandemic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, nuclear winter, p-value, Peter Singer: altruism, planetary scale, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supervolcano, survivorship bias, the scientific method, uranium enrichment

They thus have the potential to dramatically alter the total warming. And neither has been incorporated into the main IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) warming estimates, so any warming would come on top of the warming we are currently bracing for. The arctic permafrost is a layer of frozen rock and soil covering more than 12 million square kilometers of land and ocean floor.63 It contains over twice as much carbon as all anthropogenic emissions so far, trapped in the form of peat and methane.64 Scientists are confident that over the coming centuries it will partly melt, release carbon and thus further warm the atmosphere. But the size of these effects and time frame are very uncertain.65 One recent estimate is that under the IPCC’s high emissions scenario, permafrost melting would contribute about 0.3°C of additional warming by 2100.66 Methane clathrate is an ice-like substance containing both water and methane molecules.

“The Size and Frequency of the Largest Explosive Eruptions on Earth.” Bulletin of Volcanology, 66(8), 735–48. Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (2013). “Information from Paleoclimate Archives,” in T. F. Stocker, et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 383–464). Cambridge University Press. Mastrandrea, M., et al. (2010). “Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties.” IPCC. May, R. M. (1997). “The Dimensions of Life on Earth,” in P. H. Raven (ed.), Nature and Human Society: The Quest for a Sustainable World. National Academies Press. McCarthy, J., Minsky, M. L., Rochester, N., and Shannon, C. E. (1955). “A Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence.”

Nature, 486(7403), 420–8. IMARC Group (2019). “Ice Cream Market: Global Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and Forecast 2019–2024.” IMARC. Imperiale, M. J., and Hanna, M. G. (2012). “Biosafety Considerations of Mammalian-Transmissible H5N1 Influenza.” MBio, 3(2). IPCC (2014). “Summary for Policymakers,” in C. B. Field, et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1–32). Cambridge University Press. Jamison, D. T., et al. (2018). “Universal Health Coverage and Intersectoral Action for Health: Key Messages from Disease Control Priorities,” 3rd ed. The Lancet, 391(10125), 1,108–20. Jamison, D. T., et al. (eds.) (2006).


Because We Say So by Noam Chomsky

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Legislative Exchange Council, Chelsea Manning, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Julian Assange, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, Powell Memorandum, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Slavoj Žižek, Stanislav Petrov, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks

Department of Energy reported the emissions figures for 2010. Emissions “jumped by the biggest amount on record,” the Associated Press reported, meaning that “levels of greenhouse gases are higher than the worst-case scenario” anticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. John Reilly, co-director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) program on climate change, told the Associated Press that scientists have generally found the IPCC predictions to be too conservative—unlike the fringe of denialists who gain public attention. Reilly reported that the IPCC’s worst-case scenario was about in the middle of the MIT scientists’ estimates of likely outcomes. As these ominous reports were released, the FINANCIAL TIMES devoted a full page to the optimistic expectations that the U.S. might become energy-independent for a century with new technology for extracting North American fossil fuels.

One side consists of the overwhelming majority of scientists, the world’s major national academies of science, the professional science journals and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They agree that global warming is taking place, that there is a substantial human component, that the situation is serious and perhaps dire, and that very soon, maybe within decades, the world might reach a tipping point where the process will escalate sharply and will be irreversible, with severe social and economic effects. It is rare to find such consensus on complex scientific issues. The other side consists of skeptics, including a few respected scientists who caution that much is unknown—which means that things might not be as bad as thought, or they might be worse. Omitted from the contrived debate is a much larger group of skeptics: highly regarded climate scientists who see the IPCC’s regular reports as much too conservative.

., 138 Grandin, Greg, 124 Grappo, Gary, 131 Great Charter, 31, 51 Greece, 189–190 Greenland, 191 Green Line, 78 Greenwald, Glenn, 42, 173–175 Guangcheng, Chen, 47 Guantánamo Bay, 32, 172, 174 Guatemala, 109–113, 154, 180 Gwadar port, 85 Habeas Corpus Act, 51–52 Halliday, Denis, 189 Hamas, 27, 70, 71, 78, 80, 184–186 Hardin, Garrett, 53 Harrison, Selig, 140 Hass, Amira, 102, 186 Hayden, Michael, 154 Hebron, 185 Heidegger, Martin, 190 Helsinki, 85, 87, 140 Hewlett-Packard, 91 Hezbollah, 190 Hiroshima, 55, 57, 86 Honduras, 154, 180 Hormuz strait, 85 Humboldt, Wilhelm von, 145 Huntington, Samuel P., 136, 158, 175 Hussein, Saddam, 32, 35, 60, 131, 142 India, 25, 33, 35, 45, 57, 60, 84, 90, 141, 192 Indian Olympic Association, 45 Indochina, 30, 170, 172 Indyk, Martin, 128 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 23, 96, 190–191 International Atomic Energy Agency, 65 International Criminal Court, 79 International Energy Agency (IEA), 22–23 International Olympic Committee, 45 Intifada, 72 Iran, 32–36, 35, 56–57, 59–61, 65, 79, 83–87, 139–142, 153, 169, 190 Iraq, 32–34, 154, 169, 172, 177–178, 189–190 ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), 177, 189–190 Israel, 27, 33–36, 57, 59–61, 65–66, 70–74, 77–84, 86, 99–100, 110, 117–118, 125–128, 137, 140–141, 143, 154, 183–187 Israel Defense Forces Southern Command, 77 Istanbul, 119 Italy, 121, 124 Jabari, Ahmed, 79 Jackson, Robert, 177 Japan, 89–91 Jaradat, Arafat, 102 Jarrar, Raed, 178 Jefferson, Thomas, 150–151 Jeju Island, 48–49 Jeong-hyeon, Mun, 48 Jericho area, 126 Jerusalem, 125–127, 126, 190 Jervis, Robert, 136 Jindal, Bobby, 96 Jintao, Hu, 81 John, King, 51, 52 Johnson, 107 Jordan, 77, 125 JSOC, 108 Kaye, David, 136–137 Kazakhstan, 85 Keith Alexander, 158 Keller, Bill, 48 Kennan, George F., 157 Kennedy, John F., 29–30, 55, 56, 131, 170 Kerry, John, 137, 186 Khadr, Omar, 32 Khan Yunis, 73 Khong, Yuen Foong, 170–171 Khrushchev, Nikita, 55, 170 Kinsley, Michael, 111–112 Kirkpatrick, Jeane, 130 Kissinger, Henry, 22, 31, 56–57, 111 Korea, 91 Kornbluh, Peter, 123 Krebs, Ronald R., 27 Kroenig, Matthew, 33 Krosnick, Jon A., 94 Krugman, Paul, 62 Kuperwasser, Yosef, 26 Kuwait, 131 Kyoto Protocol of 1997, 21 Laos, 30–31, 107–108 Latin America, 44, 48, 90, 111–112, 122, 124 Latin American Commission on Drugs and Democracy, 42 Leahy, Sen.


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Plenitude: The New Economics of True Wealth by Juliet B. Schor

Asian financial crisis, big-box store, business climate, business cycle, carbon footprint, cleantech, Community Supported Agriculture, creative destruction, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, deskilling, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, Gini coefficient, global village, IKEA effect, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, knowledge economy, life extension, McMansion, new economy, peak oil, pink-collar, post-industrial society, prediction markets, purchasing power parity, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, sharing economy, Simon Kuznets, single-payer health, smart grid, The Chicago School, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, Zipcar

Available from http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/usa/press-center/reports4/ghg-impact-of-the-economic-sti.pdf (accessed June 1, 2009). Inglehart, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and postmodernization: Cultural, economic, and political change in 43 societies. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. ———. 1989. Culture shift in advanced industrial society. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Special report on emissions scenarios. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC Secretariat. Available from http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Fsr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission (accessed July 4, 2009). International Monetary Fund. 2009. Indices of primary commodity prices 1999-2009. Available from http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/table1a.pdf (accessed May 25, 2009). International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. 2009. Wildlife in a changing world: An analysis of the 2008 IUCN red list of threatened species.

One reason the conversation reverted to its usual outlines is that macroeconomists, who focus on growth, employment, and the overall economy, have been slow to incorporate ecological data into their worldview. During 2007 and 2008, the same period that the housing and credit markets were collapsing, dramatically bad news was surfacing on the climate front. Developments since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, whose data ended in 2006, have been grim. Arctic sea ice was melting at hitherto unimaginable rates, and oceans were rising at more than double the IPCC report’s maximum possibility. Drought conditions were spreading. World emissions were sharply up in 2007, and in June 2008, James Hansen, NASA’s leading climate scientist, told Congress that the CO2 target “we have been aiming for is a disaster.” By February 2009, the news was worse, with scientists reporting that the speed of climate change was already beyond anything considered in the last round of models.

Barlow, Maude. 2002. Blue gold: The fight to stop the corporate theft of the world’s water. New York: New Press. Barnes, Peter. 2001. Who owns the sky? Our common assets and the future of capitalism. Washington, D.C.: Island Press. Bates, Bryson C., Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Shaohong Wu, and Jean P. Palutikof. 2008. Climate change and water: Technical paper of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva: IPCC Secretariat. Available from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tp-climate-change-water.htm (accessed June 1, 2009). Battisti, David S., and Rosamond L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323 (January 9): 240-44. Baudrillard, Jean. 2001. Selected writings. Edited by Mark Poster. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press. Bauwens, Michel. 2005.The political economy of peer production.


pages: 523 words: 111,615

The Economics of Enough: How to Run the Economy as if the Future Matters by Diane Coyle

"Robert Solow", accounting loophole / creative accounting, affirmative action, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bonus culture, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, business cycle, call centre, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, different worldview, disintermediation, Edward Glaeser, endogenous growth, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Financial Instability Hypothesis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, Hyman Minsky, If something cannot go on forever, it will stop - Herbert Stein's Law, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, industrial cluster, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, light touch regulation, low skilled workers, market bubble, market design, market fundamentalism, megacity, Network effects, new economy, night-watchman state, Northern Rock, oil shock, Pareto efficiency, principal–agent problem, profit motive, purchasing power parity, railway mania, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, Steven Pinker, The Design of Experiments, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Market for Lemons, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Spirit Level, transaction costs, transfer pricing, tulip mania, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, web application, web of trust, winner-take-all economy, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

Yet opinion polls suggest that in most countries the majority of people (albeit a declining majority in several cases) accept that the changing global climate due in large part to the buildup of emissions of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse” gases (GHGs) poses a serious threat to future well-being. The central forecast of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) published in 2007 was for a 0.2 degrees centigrade a decade increase in temperature, with the risks of a bigger rise. The UN’s latest report on climate change forecasts says the chances are increasing that the increase will lie at the upper end of the IPCC’s range of forecasts; and that some events previously expected to occur on a longer-term time horizons are already happening or set to happen far sooner. Recent increases in greenhouse gas concentrations have led scientists to predict a warming of between 1.3 and 4.3 degrees centigrade above preindustrial surface temperatures.

., 127–28 Calculus of Consent, The: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy (Buchanan and Tullock), 242 call centers, 131, 133, 161 Cameron, David, 288 capitalism: China and, 234; communism and, 96, 182–83, 209–13, 218, 226, 230, 239–40; community and, 27, 51, 65, 117–18, 137, 141, 152–54; cultural effects of, 25–29, 230–38; current crisis of, 6–9; democracy and, 230–38; Engels on, 14; fairness and, 134, 137, 149; growth and, 268, 275, 290, 293, 297; happiness and, 25–29, 33, 45, 53–54; historical perspective on, 3, 6, 14; institutions and, 240; market failure and, 226–30; Marx on, 14; measurement and, 182; mercantile economy and, 27–28; nutrition and, 10; profit–oriented, 18; Protestant work ethic and, 13–14; protests against, 211–13; rethinking meaning of, 9; social effects of, 25–26; values and, 209–13, 218, 226, 230–32, 235–36; well-being and, 137–39 carbon prices, 70–71 celebrities, 33 charitable giving, 33, 141 Checkpoint Charlie, 147 China, 161, 262, 280; capitalism and, 234; carbon emissions and, 63; changed demographic structure of, 90; convergence and, 122; declining population in, 98; energy use in, 63, 65; global manufacturing and, 149; inequality and, 125–26; Mao and, 10; middle class of, 125–26; as next major power, 94; one–child policy and, 95–96; population growth and, 95–96; purchasing power parity (PPP) and, 306n19; rise in wealth of, 81, 122–23, 125, 212; savings and, 87, 94, 100, 108; wage penalties and, 133; World Bank influence and, 163 cities, 308n29; face-to-face contact and, 165–68; size and, 165–66; structural changes in, 165–70; urban clustering and, 166 City of London, 147, 221 Clemens, Michael, 81 climate change, 5–7, 17, 24, 90, 238; carbon prices and, 70–71; Copenhagen summit and, 62, 64–65, 68, 162, 292; domestic dissent and, 66–71; future and, 75–83; geological history and, 69; global warming and, 57, 64, 66, 68; greenhouse gases and, 23, 29, 35, 59, 61–63, 68, 70–71, 83; Himalayan glaciers and, 66–67; incandescent light bulbs and, 59–60; InterAcademy Council and, 66–67; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and, 59, 66–69, 82, 297; Kyoto Protocol and, 62–64; lack of consensus on, 66–71; Montreal Protocol and, 59; policy dilemma of, 58–62; policy recommendations for, 267, 280, 297; politics and, 62–65; social welfare and, 71–75; technology and, 59–60, 198 Coachella Value Music Festival, 197 Cobb, John, 36 Coca Cola, 150 coherence, 49 Cold War, 93, 112, 147, 209, 213, 239, 252 Collier, Paul, 77–78, 80, 82 Commerzbank, 87 Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, 37–38 communism: Berlin Wall and, 182, 226, 239; capitalism and, 96, 182–83, 209–13, 218, 226, 230, 239–40; Cold War and, 93, 112, 147, 209, 213, 239, 252; fall of, 209–13, 226, 239–40, 252; Iron Curtain and, 183, 239, 252; Leipzig marches and, 239; one-child policy and, 95–96; Velvet Revolution and, 239 community: civic engagement and, 140–41; globalization and, 148–49; intangible assets and, 149–52, 157, 161 (see also trust); public service and, 295; Putnam on, 140–41, 152–54 commuting, 45–47 Company of Strangers, The (Seabright), 148–49, 213–14 comprehensive wealth, 81–82, 202–3, 208, 271–73 consumerism, 22, 34, 45, 138 consumption: conspicuous, 11, 22, 45, 236; consumerism and, 22, 34, 45, 138; cutting, 61; downgrading status of, 11; downshifting and, 11, 55; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; global per capita, 72; of goods and services, 7, 10, 24, 35–36, 40, 82, 99, 161, 188, 191, 198, 214, 218, 228–29, 282; green lifestyle and, 55, 61, 76, 289, 293; growth and, 280, 295; happiness and, 22, 29, 40, 45; hedonic treadmill and, 40; increasing affluence and, 12; institutions and, 254, 263; Kyoto Protocol and, 63–64; measurement and, 181–82, 198; missing markets and, 229; natural resources and, 8–12, 58, 60, 79–82, 102, 112, 181–82; nature and, 58–61, 71–76, 79, 82; posterity and, 86, 104–5, 112–13; reduction of, 105; Slow Movement and, 27; trends in, 138; trilemma of, 13–14, 230–36, 275; values and, 229, 236 convergence, 5, 122 Copenhagen summit, 62, 64–65, 68, 162, 292 Crackberry, 205 Crafts, Nicholas, 156–57 credit cards, 2, 21, 136, 138, 283 Csikszentmilhalyi, Mihaly, 45–49 Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism, The (Bell), 230, 235–36 Czechoslovakia, 239 Daly, Herman, 36 Damon, William, 48 Dasgupta, Partha, 61, 73, 77–78, 80, 82 David, Paul, 156 Dawkins, Richard, 118 debit cards, 2 decentralization, 7, 159, 218, 246, 255, 275, 291 defense budgets, 93 democracy, 2, 8, 16, 312n19; capitalism and, 230–38; culture and, 230–38; fairness and, 141; growth and, 268–69, 285–89, 296–97; institutions and, 242–43, 251–52, 262; nature and, 61, 66, 68; posterity and, 106; trust and, 175; values and, 230–35 Denmark, 125 Dickens, Charles, 131 Diener, Ed, 48, 49 Discourse on the Origin and Basis of Inequality among Men (Rousseau), 114 distribution, 29, 306n22; Asian influence and, 123; bifurcation of social norms and, 231–32; consumerism and, 22, 34, 45, 138; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; fairness and, 115–16, 123–27, 134, 136; food and, 10, 34; of goods and services, 7, 10, 24, 35–36, 40, 82, 99, 161, 188, 191, 198, 214, 218, 228–29, 282; income, 34, 116, 123–27, 134, 278; inequality and, 123 (see also inequality); institutions and, 253; measurement and, 181, 191–99, 202; paradox of prosperity and, 174; policy recommendations for, 276, 278; posterity and, 87, 94; trust and, 151, 171; unequal countries and, 124–30; values and, 226 Dorling, Danny, 224, 307n58, 308n34 Douglas, Michael, 221 downshifting, 11, 55 downsizing, 175, 246, 255 drugs, 44, 46, 137–38, 168–69, 191, 302n47 Easterlin, Richard, 39 Easterlin Paradox, 39–44 eBay, 198 Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity project, The (TEEB), 78–79 economies of scale, 253–58 Economy of Enough, 233; building blocks for, 12–17; first ten steps for, 294–98; growth and, 182; happiness and, 24; institutions and, 250–51, 258, 261–63; living standards and, 13, 65, 78–79, 106, 113, 136, 139, 151, 162, 190, 194, 267; Manifesto of, 18, 267–98; measurement and, 182, 186–88, 201–7; nature and, 59, 84; Ostrom on, 250–51; posterity and, 17, 85–113; values and, 217, 233–34, 238; Western consumers and, 22 (see also consumption) Edinburgh University, 221 efficiency, 2, 7; evidence–based policy and, 233–34; fairness and, 126; Fama hypothesis and, 221–22; happiness and, 9, 29–30, 61; institutions and, 245–46, 254–55, 261; limits to, 13; nature and, 61–62, 69, 82; network effects and, 253, 258; productivity and, 13 (see also productivity); trilemma of, 13–14, 230–36, 275; trust and, 158–59; values and, 210, 215–16, 221–35 Ehrlich, Paul, 70 e-mail, 252, 291 “End of History, The” (Fukuyama), 239 Engels, Friedrich, 14 Enlightenment, 7 Enron, 145 environmentalists.

See also markets goodwill, 150 Google, 195, 291 Gore, Al, 60, 74 governance: definition of, 16; growth and, 270, 275, 288, 292; institutions and, 242, 247, 255–58, 261–62; measurement and, 183, 186; sense of, 18; technology and, 17; trust and, 151, 162–65, 173–77; values and, 211, 217, 238; wider crisis of, 255–58 government: bailouts and, 1, 88, 91, 99–100, 145; communism and, 96, 182–83, 209–13, 218, 226, 230, 239–40; debt and, 3–4, 11, 84–86, 89–94, 98–105, 108, 150, 248, 271, 275, 286–87, 294; decentralization and, 246; defining, 15–16, 269; distrust of, 150, 157, 162, 172, 175–76, 247; failure of, 183, 240–44, 257; fairness and, 121, 123, 131, 136; first ten steps for, 294–98; growing challenge to authority and, 245–46; growth and, 268–72, 275–89, 293–97; happiness and, 22–26, 29–32, 38–40, 43–45, 50–54; higher social spending and, 243–44; influence of over social norms, 280–84; infrastructure spending and, 93; institutions and, 240–63; interest groups and, 242–43, 285; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and, 59, 66–69, 82, 297; intrusive regulatory practices and, 244; market control and, 14–15; measurement and, 182–88, 191, 193, 196, 202–3, 206; nature and, 58–62, 65–71, 82–84; New Public Management and, 245–47; OECD countries and, 4, 11, 38, 52, 60, 68, 87, 93–94, 97–99, 112, 125–26, 160, 171, 201, 212, 243–44, 246, 273–74, 281, 283, 287, 291, 293; online access of, 287–88; as organizing economy, 218–19; police service and, 5, 35, 163, 193, 200, 247; policy and, 2 (see also policy); posterity and, 85–95, 98–113; as shareholder, 88; stimulus packages and, 91, 100–103, 111; values and, 14, 210–11, 215–20, 225–26, 229–30, 234 government debt, 3–4, 84, 150, 248; cradle-to-grave social systems and, 104; credibility and, 101; default on, 110–12; deficit spending and, 101, 203, 287; demographic implosion and, 95–100; Gross on, 287; higher retirement age and, 106–7; importance of, 100–104; increased saving and, 105–6; legacy of, 90–92; less leisure and, 106–7; migration and, 108–9; policy for, 104–12, 271, 275, 286–87, 294; posterity and, 85–86, 90–94, 98–100, 105, 108; productivity improvements and, 107–8; reduced consumption and, 105–6; retirement age and, 98; as social issue, 113; Stein’s Law and, 104; as time bomb, 104 Great Crash, 28 Great Depression, 3, 28, 35, 61, 82, 109, 150, 208, 281 Greece, 3, 260, 276, 287, 295 greed, 248; bankers and, 277–78; fairness and, 129; happiness and, 26, 34, 54; high salaries and, 130, 143–44, 193, 223, 277–78, 286, 296; option pricing theory and, 222; policy recommendations for, 277–79; posterity and, 88; trust and, 150; values and, 221–23 Green, Stephen, 279 greenhouse gases, 23, 29, 35, 59, 61–63, 68, 70–71, 83 green lifestyle, 55, 61, 76, 289, 293 Greenspan, Alan, 129 Gross, Bill, 287 gross domestic product (GDP), 10, 12; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; fairness and, 127; growth and, 270, 274, 281, 294; happiness and, 22–23, 28, 32–42, 51–53; logarithm of, 41–42; measurement and, 41–42, 187–91, 198, 201–8; nature and, 56–60, 75–76, 80–82; policy recommendations for, 270, 274, 281, 294; posterity and, 91–94, 98–99, 103, 108, 111; trust and, 157, 160; values and, 212, 218, 232 Gross National Happiness, 36, 40 growth: antigrowth alternative and, 39–44; capitalism and, 268, 275, 290, 293, 297; Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress and, 37–38; community and, 27, 51, 65, 117–18, 137, 141, 152–54; comprehensive wealth and, 81–82, 202–3, 208, 271–73; consequences of inequality and, 135–36; consumption and, 280, 295; cultural suspicion of capitalist, 26–29; democracy and, 268–69, 285–89, 296–97; downgrading consumption and, 11; fairness and, 114–16, 121, 125, 127, 133–37; governance and, 270, 275, 288, 292; government and, 268–72, 275–89, 293–97; gross domestic product (GDP) and, 270, 274, 281, 294; happiness and, 9–12, 22–29, 32–44, 51–53; increasing affluence and, 12; Industrial Revolution and, 27, 149, 290, 297; of information, 205, 291; innovation and, 201–7, 271–73, 281, 290–92; institutions and, 258, 261, 263; limits to, 13, 190, 231; Manifesto of Enough and, 267–98; measurement and, 181–85, 188–90, 194, 201–5, 208; mercantile economy and, 27–28; morals and, 275–76, 279, 293, 295, 297; nature and, 56–59, 62–66, 69–72, 76, 79–82; new conventional wisdom on, 23–24; paradox of prosperity and, 174; as policy goal, 22; politics and, 33; population, 29, 63, 70, 81, 89, 95–96, 108, 168; posterity and, 90, 95, 97, 99, 102, 105–8, 111; productivity and, 189–90, 194, 199–201, 206–7 (see also productivity); public goods and, 185–86, 190, 199, 211, 229, 249, 261; statistics and, 270–74, 290–94; sustainability and, 240, 244, 248 (see also sustainability); trust and, 152–56, 160, 174; values and, 13, 210–13, 222, 231–36; welfare and, 9–12 Groysberg, Boris, 143 Gutenberg press, 7 Haidt, Jonathan, 45–49, 117 Haldane, Andrew, 174 Hall, Peter, 140–41 Hamilton, Kirk, 81 handcrafting, 11, 55 happiness: absorbing work and, 10, 48–49; anomie and, 48, 51; anxiety and, 1, 25, 47–48, 136–38, 149, 174; capitalism and, 25–29, 33, 45, 53–54; charitable giving and, 33; choice and, 10–11; coherence and, 49; Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress and, 37–38; commuting and, 45–47; conflict in relationships and, 47; consumer electronics and, 36–37; consumption and, 22, 29, 45; as correct guide for life, 29–32; cultural suspicion of growth and, 26–29; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; efficiency and, 9, 29–30, 61; emotional response to, 21; fairness and, 53; formula for, 46; freedom and, 10, 13, 26, 42–44, 50–53; globalization and, 24; government and, 22–26, 29–32, 38–40, 43–45, 50–54; gross domestic product (GDP) and, 22–23, 28, 32–42, 51–53; Gross National Happiness and, 36; growth and, 9–12, 22–29, 32–44, 51–53; health issues and, 24, 33–38, 42–43, 48, 50; Human Development Index (HDI) and, 36; inequality and, 25, 36, 42, 44, 53; innovation and, 37; lack of control and, 47; literacy and, 36; measurement and, 35–39; mercantile economy and, 27–28; morals and, 22, 26, 30, 34, 43, 48–49; more money and, 56; movement of, 10; nature and, 56–59, 75–76, 80–84; new conventional wisdom on, 23–24; noise and, 47; philosophy and, 21, 27, 31–32, 49–50; politics and, 22–30, 33, 43–44, 50–54; productivity and, 27, 38, 42, 51; psychology of, 44–50; religion and, 32–33, 43, 50; sense of flow and, 48–49, 51; shame and, 47; Slow Movement and, 27–28, 205; social engagement and, 10; social welfare and, 25–26, 30–32, 35, 39–42, 50–53; statistics and, 35–42, 51–52; technology and, 24–25, 35–37, 44, 53–54; unemployment and, 56; utiltariansim and, 31–32; volunteering and, 46–49 Happiness: Lessons from a New Science (Layard), 39 Happy Planet Index, 36 Harvard, 100 Hayek, Friedrich von, 215–16 health care, 4–5, 11; fairness and, 137–43; happiness and, 24, 33–38, 42–43, 48, 50; institutions and, 247, 252–53; measurement and, 181, 188–93, 200, 207; Obama administration and, 285; policy reform and, 285, 290, 293; politics and, 269; posterity and, 89, 93–94, 97–99, 103, 106, 111–13; trust and, 172 hedonic treadmill, 40 Henderson, David, 68 Himalayan glaciers, 66–67 hippies, 27 Hirsch, Fred, 190, 213 Hobbes, Thomas, 114 HSBC, 279 Hugo, Victor, 131 human capital, 81, 203–4, 282 Human Development Index (HDI), 36 Hume, David, 120 Hungary, 239 hybrid cars, 61 hyperinflation, 110–11 Idea of Justice, The (Sen), 43 illegal downloading, 196–97 incandescent light bulbs, 59–60 income.


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The Green New Deal: Why the Fossil Fuel Civilization Will Collapse by 2028, and the Bold Economic Plan to Save Life on Earth by Jeremy Rifkin

1919 Motor Transport Corps convoy, 2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, Bernie Sanders, blockchain, borderless world, business cycle, business process, carbon footprint, collective bargaining, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, decarbonisation, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, failed state, ghettoisation, hydrogen economy, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, means of production, megacity, Network effects, new economy, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, planetary scale, renewable energy credits, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, Steven Levy, the built environment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, union organizing, urban planning, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

NOTES Please note that some of the links referenced throughout this work may no longer be active. INTRODUCTION   1.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report (Geneva: World Meteorological Organization, 2018), 6.   2.  Edward O. Wilson, “The 8 Million Species We Don’t Know,” New York Times, March 3, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/03/opinion/sunday/species-conservation-extinction.html (accessed February 4, 2019).   3.  Gerta Keller et al., “Volcanism, Impacts and Mass Extinctions (Long Version),” Geoscientist Online, November 2012, https://www.geolsoc.org.uk/Geoscientist/Archive/November-2012/Volcanism-impacts-and-mass-extinctions-2 (accessed March 12, 2019).   4.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Summary for Policymakers,” 14.   5.  Ryan Grim and Briahna Gray, “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Joins Environmental Activists in Protest at Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi’s Office,” The Intercept, November 13, 2018, https://theintercept.com/2018/11/13/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-sunrise-activists-nancy-pelosi/ (accessed February 1, 2019).   6.  

Our scientists tell us that human-induced climate change brought on by the burning of fossil fuels has taken the human race and our fellow species into the sixth mass extinction event of life on Earth. Yet few people alive today are even aware of this emerging reality. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a scientific body of the United Nations, issued a dire warning in October 2018 that global warming emissions are accelerating and that we are on the verge of a series of escalating climatic events, imperiling life on the planet. The IPCC estimated that human activity has caused the temperature to rise 1°C (Celsius) above preindustrial levels and predicted that if it crosses a threshold beyond 1.5°C, it will unleash runaway feedback loops and a cascade of climate-change events that would decimate the Earth’s ecosystems.1 There would be no return to the kind of life we know today.

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Livestock and Landscapes, 2012, http://www.fao.org/3/ar591e/ar591e.pdf (accessed March 23, 2019), 1. 55.  Timothy P. Robinson et al., “Mapping the Global Distribution of Livestock,” PLoS ONE 9, no. 5 (2014): 1, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0096084; Susan Solomon et al., AR4 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1/ (accessed March 24, 2019), 33. 56.  H. Steinfeld et al., Livestock’s Long Shadow (Rome: FAO, 2006), xxi. 57.  Emily S. Cassidy et al., “Redefining Agricultural Yields: From Tonnes to People Nourished per Hectare,” Environmental Research Letters 8, no. 3 (2013): 4, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034015. 58.  Janet Ranganathan et al., “Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future,” World Resources Institute Working Paper, 2016, https://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/Shifting_Diets_for_a_Sustainable_Food_Future_0.pdf (accessed March 23, 2019), 21. 59.  


pages: 421 words: 125,417

Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet by Jeffrey Sachs

agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, British Empire, business process, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, Edward Glaeser, energy security, failed state, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, Haber-Bosch Process, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, low skilled workers, mass immigration, microcredit, oil shale / tar sands, old age dependency ratio, peak oil, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, Skype, statistical model, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, unemployed young men, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working-age population

Kennedy, I. Harris, et al., “Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A New Dataset from 1850,” Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (2006). 87 Stern Review on Climate Change: Nicholas Stern, “The Economics of Climate Change,” The Stern Review (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007). 87 “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Round Assessment. Information available at: http://www.mnp.nl/ipcc/. 88 Polar bears and alpine species: Steven C. Amstrup, Bruce G. Marcot, and David C. Douglas, Forecasting the Range-wide Status of Polar Bears at Selected Times in the 21st Century (Virginia: U.S. Geological Survey Administrative Report, 2007). 88 higher-latitude environments: Carbon fertilization is the hypothesis, somewhat debated, that higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations may “fertilize” crops and raise the productivity of photosynthesis.

., “Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate Change Through Ozone Effects on the Land-Carbon Sink,” Nature, August 16, 2007, pp. 791–94. 94 brilliant analysis by my colleague James Hansen: James Hansen, “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7 (2007): 2287–312. 98 if the hybrid can be plugged: James Kliesch and Therese Langer, Plug-in Hybrids: An Environmental and Economic Performance Outlook, report number T061, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, September 2006; and The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Position Statement Plug-In Electric Hybrid Vehicles, adopted by the board of directors June 15, 2007. 101 This translates roughly: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage.” Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/srccs/index.htm. 103 “Anything but a marginal”: Tommy Dalgaard, “Looking at Biofuels and Bioenergy,” Science 312 (June 23, 2006): 1743. 103 In a study published in 2005: Klaus Lackner and Jeffrey D. Sachs, “A Robust Strategy for Sustainable Energy,” Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, 2005. 107 Both are needed: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Sustainable Development in Africa: Is the Climate Right?

Science 301 (2003): 929. Humphreys, Macartan, Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Joseph Stiglitz, eds. Escaping the Resource Curse. New York: Columbia University Press, 2007. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. Position Statement: Plug-In Electric Hybrid Vehicles. Adopted by the Board of Directors, June 15, 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Fourth Assessment Report, 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch. _____. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, 2006. http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/srccs/index.htm. International Conference on Population and Development, Program of Action. http://www.unfpa.org/icpd/icpd_poa.htm. International Conservation Union for Nature and Natural Resources. 2006 Red List of Threatened Species, 2006. http://www.iucn.org/themes/ssc/redlist2006/redlist2006.htm.


The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations by Daniel Yergin

3D printing, 9 dash line, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, addicted to oil, Admiral Zheng, Albert Einstein, American energy revolution, Asian financial crisis, autonomous vehicles, Ayatollah Khomeini, Bakken shale, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, British Empire, coronavirus, COVID-19, Covid-19, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, distributed generation, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, failed state, gig economy, global pandemic, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, Kickstarter, LNG terminal, Lyft, Malacca Straits, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, Masdar, mass incarceration, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, new economy, off grid, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, paypal mafia, peak oil, pension reform, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, supply-chain management, trade route, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, ubercab, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce

Mott, “Abraham Darby (I and II) the Coal Iron Industry,” Transactions of the Newcomen Society 31, no. 1 (1957); Nancy Cox, “Imagination and Innovation of an Industrial Pioneer: The First Abraham Darby,” The Industrial Archaeology Review 12 (1990), pp. 127–44; “Shopshire: Industrial Heritage,” BBC, http://www.bbc.co.uk/shropshire/content/articles/2009/02/12/abraham_darby_feature.shtml (“doubt me”); Barrie Trinder, The Darbys of Coalbrookdale (Chichester, UK: Phillimore, 1978), chapter 2; Barbara Freese, Coal: A Human History (New York: Penguin Books, 2004), pp. 24–32. 2. Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives (Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2017). 3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007); Rajendra Pachauri, CERAWeek, February 11, 2008; Gayathri Vaidyanathan, “U.N. Climate Science Body Launches Search to Replace a Strong Leader,” E&E News, February 25, 2015. 4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva: IPCC, 2014); Steven Koonin, “Climate Science Is Not Settled,” Wall Street Journal, September 19, 2014. 5. Mark Landler and Helene Cooper, “After a Bitter Campaign, Forging an Alliance,” New York Times, March 18, 2010 (“worst meeting”); Bruce Einhorn, “Why the US-China Emissions Pact Could Be a Climate Change Breakthrough,” Bloomberg, November 12, 2014. 6.

IHS Markit launched a major research program on hydrogen in 2017 that focused on Europe, California, and China and continues in the Forum on Hydrogen and Renewable Gas. 3. Joeri Rogelj et al., “Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development,” in Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5°C, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2018; IPCC, B. Metz et al., eds., IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005); Francois Bastin et al., “The Global Tree Restoration Potential,” Science 365, no. 6448 (July 5, 2019), pp. 76–79. For an overview of options, see U.S. National Petroleum Council, Meeting the Dual Challenge: A Roadmap to At-Scale Deployment of Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage: Final Report, December 12, 2019. 4.

As for natural gas, global consumption has increased 60 percent since 2000.2 * * * — The framework that has shaped the global discussion of climate change has been the periodic reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, known as the IPCC, under the auspices of the United Nations. This is a self-governing network of scientists and researchers that issues periodic reports, with each one raising further the crescendo of alarm. The first, in 1990, said that the earth was warming and that the warming was “broadly consistent with the predictions of climate models” as to largely “man-made greenhouse warming.” But the changes, it added, were also broadly consistent with “natural climate variability.” By 2007, in its fourth report, the IPCC was much more categorical—it was “very likely” that humanity was responsible for climate change. The actual report was not as categorical in all dimensions as the summary for policymakers.


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The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning by James E. Lovelock

Ada Lovelace, butterfly effect, carbon footprint, Clapham omnibus, cognitive dissonance, continuous integration, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, discovery of DNA, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Henri Poincaré, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), mandelbrot fractal, mass immigration, megacity, Northern Rock, oil shale / tar sands, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, planetary scale, short selling, Stewart Brand, University of East Anglia

Scientists, especially Steve Schneider and Jim Hansen, recognized in the 1980s the possibility of dangerous climate change as a result of our pollution of the air with excessive carbon dioxide. This led the eminent Swedish climatologist Bert Bolin to persuade the United Nations (UN) to form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with Sir John Houghton and Gylvan Meiro Filho as its first co‐chairs. It began gathering evidence about the changing chemistry and physics of the atmosphere in 1990 and has issued reports in 1991, 1995, 2001 and 2007. Through the efforts of this more than 1,000‐strong panel of scientists of many different nations we now know enough about the Earth’s atmosphere to make intelligent guesses about future climates. But so far these guesses have been unable to match the observed changes in climate closely enough for us to be confident about IPCC forecasts decades into the future. We are almost all of us now so urbanized that few living in the cities of the northern hemisphere see the stars at night.

Instead, before our thoughts were diverted by the global financial collapse, we seemed lost in an endless round of celebration and congratulation. It was good to recognize the huge efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore with the Nobel Peace Prize and to have a brave 10,000 make the long journey to Bali as a salutation, but because they failed to see the Earth as alive and responsive they ignored at our peril the extent of its disapproval of all we do. As we hold our meetings and talk of stewardship, Gaia still moves step by step towards the hot state, one that will allow her to continue as the regulator, but where few of us will be alive to meet and talk. Perhaps we were celebrating because the once rather worrying voice of the IPCC now spoke comfortably of consensus and endorsed those mysterious concepts of sustainability and energy that renewed itself.

Norton, New York, 1988) James Lovelock, Gaia: The Practical Science of Planetary Medicine (1991), reprinted as Gaia: Medicine for an Ailing Planet (Gaia Books, London, 2005) James Lovelock, Homage to Gaia: The Life of an Independent Scientist (Oxford University Press, 2000) Index bold numbers refer to tables, italic numbers to figures adaptation 48, 49, 104 aerosol, atmospheric 35–8, 40 agribusiness 9, 86, 144, 146 agriculture, greenhouse gas 47 albedo, reduction of 46, 47, 163 algae 29, 33, 163 CLAW hypothesis 111, 116 ocean fertilization 98 Amsterdam Declaration 117, 165 Andreae, Meinrat 36, 94, 111, 116 anti-nuclear propaganda 70–76 Arctic, loss of ice 7, 10–11, 28 Bali, UN Climate Change Conference 4, 16, 47 belief, anecdotal 52–3, 73 Betts, Richard 38, 42 Bhopal industrial accident 72–3 biodiversity 115 biofuel crops 12–13 biogeochemistry 31, 121 biologists, and Gaia 119 Bolin, Bert 3, 120 Brand, Stewart 79, 111 Branson, Sir Richard 2 breathing, greenhouse gas emissions 47 British Antarctic Survey 42 Broecker, Wally, Fixing Climate 11, 97 Brown, Gordon 90 ‘butterfly effect’ 132 C4 plants 155 Caldeira, Ken 94, 95, 110, 112 Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) 74, 146 carbon dioxide burial 77, 96 effect on model Earth 34–5 and energy production 69 Eocene increase 101–2 production by population 47 reduction of 32, 33 regulation 108–10, 112 removal by algae 29, 33, 98 sequestration 96–9 carbon footprint 18, 48 carbon trading 48, 50 Carson, Rachel 143–5 CFCs 137, 145 chaos, deterministic 132–3, 164 Chapman Conferences 120 char, burial 58, 99–100 Charlson, Robert 15, 36, 38, 94, 111, 116 Chernobyl nuclear accident 71, 72–3 China, pollution 37 CLAW hypothesis 111, 116 climatologists, and Gaia 120 clouds artificial 95–6 CLAW hypothesis 111, 116 condensation nuclei 95, 111 effect on climate 35–8 coal 79, 83 combined heat and power generation 79 Common Agricultural Policy 90 Common Energy Policy 90 computers 130 Connes, Janine 107 Connes, Pierre 107 Cool Earth 97 Coombe Mill 136–43 ecosystem 139 grass-burning boiler 138 horticulture 140 tree planting 139 countryside, destruction of 9, 144 Cox, Peter 36, 42 Crane, Robert, The Earth System 110 Crichton, Michael, A State of Fear 147 Crutzen, Paul 94, 95 Daisyworld model 111, 112–14, 115 Dale, Sir Henry 15 Daniel, Billy 143 Darwinism 6, 31, 115, 119, 127–8, 131 Dasgupta, Sir Partha 5 Dawkins, Richard 111, 128, 153 DDT 147 Descartes, René 127, 130, 131, 158–9 deserts, solar thermal energy 66–7 determinism 132–3 Dickinson, Robert 42 dimethyl sulphide 98, 111, 116 disequilibrium 107, 112 dissonance, cognitive 25, 44 Doolittle, Ford 111 drought 10, 54–5 Dyke, James 115 Earth ageing 154 atmosphere 105, 107, 111–12 catastrophes 52, 152–3, 154 effect of carbon dioxide 34–5 hot state 2, 4, 34, 35, 118 human carrying capacity 56 as living system 7, 8–9, 47, 62, 165, 166 surface temperature 39 eco-warriors 21 Ehrlich, Ann 49 Ehrlich, Paul 49 electricity dependence on 16, 17, 88–9 production 65, 68 Electron Capture Detector (ECD) 145 energy 64–86 and political power 75–6 renewable 12, 80–85, 142 Eocene, climate 101–2, 104 Erikson, Brent 13 European Union, renewable energy policy 90 evapotranspiration 37, 38 evolution, Darwinian 6, 31, 115, 119, 127–8, 131 extremophiles 155 Farman, Joseph 42 feedback 167–8 climate models 34, 35, 100–101 ecosystems 38 Fells, Professor Ian 65 Festiger, Leon 25 fire 149–51 Flannery, Timothy 128 The Weather Makers 19 flooding 50 food production, greenhouse gas 47 supply 86–91 synthesized 16, 87, 100 forecasting climate change 23–45 forests clearance 97 evapotranspiration 38 fossil fuels 64, 77–80 Gaia naming by William Golding 1, 106, 128–9 perception of 126–7 see also Earth, as living system Gaia Theory, history 105–22, 166 Gardiner, Brian 42 Garrels, Robert 110 gas, natural 78–9, 83 genes, ‘selfish’ 153 geochemistry 108–10 geoengineering 92–104 Geological Society of London, 2003 Wollaston Medal 120 geologists, and Gaia 110, 119 geophysics 32 geophysiology 31, 100–102 global dimming 36, 102 Golding, William 1, 106, 128–9 Goodell, Jeff 80 Gore, Al 4, 15, 128 Gray, John 6 green ideology 12, 142–7 greenhouse condition 33, 101, 166 greenhouse gas 4, 47 Greenpeace 20, 74, 146 Greenspan, Alan 5 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research 36, 38, 42 Hamilton, William 115, 128, 153 Hansen, James 3, 5, 15 carbon dioxide reduction 32 scientific reticence 74 Hardin, Garrett 62 Harvey, Inman 115 Hayes, P. B. 108 Henderson-Sellers, Ann 42 Ho, Mae Wan 106 holistic systems 127, 129–30, 131 Holland, H. D. 108, 112 Hölldobler, Bert 133 hornets 141 hothouse condition 101 Houghton, Sir John 3, 10 humidity, relative 39 hydrocarbons 77–8 hydroelectricity 71 hysteresis 101, 113, 167 India, pollution 37 intelligence 156–7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3, 4, 7–8 forecasting 23–6, 27, 28, 29, 40, 44 isoprene 98 Jet Propulsion Laboratory 1, 13, 105 Jones, Chris 42 Kahn, Herman 24–5 Kasting, James 108, 110 Keeling, Charles David 6 Keeling, Ralph 6, 14 Koeslag, Johan 115 Kump, Lee 29, 110 Kunzig, Robert, Fixing Climate 11, 97 Kyoto Agreement 8 Lackner, Klaus 97 Laplace, Pierre-Simon 132 Lawson, Nigel, An Appeal to Reason 51, 147 leaves, temperature 38 Lehmann, Johannes 58, 99 Lenton, Timothy 42, 115 ‘lifeboat’ world 11–12, 22, 56, 161 Liss, Professor Peter 42, 116 Litvinenko, Alexander 75 livestock, greenhouse gas 47 living space 87–91 Lorenz, Edward 132–3 Lovelock, Helen 137 Lovelock Sandy 73, 79, 108, 115, 123–4, 125, 136, 141–3 Lovelock, Tom 134–5 McGuffie, Kendal 42 magnesium carbonate 97 mankind breathing greenhouse gas 47 importance to Gaia 21 place in Earth system 6 use of fire 149–51 Margulis, Lynn 13, 108, 111 Marine Biological Association 43 Mars, atmosphere 107 Martin, John 98 Maunder minimum 41 May, Robert 128, 132–3 Maynard Smith, John 115, 128 media, anti-nuclear 71–6 methane 79 clathrates 102 micro-organisms 31, 108 Midgley, Mary 106 Millennium Assessment Ecosystem Commission 42 models climate change 7, 14, 30, 33–5, 40–45, 129 dangers of 4, 6, 14, 26, 129–30, 131–2 Monod, Jacques 127, 158–9 National Centre for Atmospheric Research 42 neo-Darwinism 111, 115, 132, 153 New Age 106, 111 nuclear energy 16–17, 50, 64, 68–76, 83 oceans acidification 41, 46, 94, 102 carbon dioxide storage 97–9 fertilization 98 as indicator of global warming 29, 44–5 oil 77–8, 83 overpopulation 3–4, 9, 49, 77 oxygen 49, 152 concentration 105–6 ozone depletion 42, 95, 137 Pachauri, Dr Rajendra K. 30, 49 Paltridge, Garth W. 118 Parris, Matthew 70–71 Pearce, Fred 106 perception 123–6 of Gaia 126–7 pesticides 143, 144, 145 petroleum 77–8 photosynthesis 38, 49, 99, 152 Pinatubo eruption, effect on climate 4, 37, 40, 94 Poincaré, Henri 132 pollution effect on climate 35–7 light 3 polonium-210 75 Polovina, Jeffrey 29 Porritt, Jonathon 106 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 42 Prince’s Forest Trust 97 radiation, nuclear 70–71 Rahmstorf, Stefan 7, 26, 42 Ramanathan, Professor V. 37 Rapley, Chris 77, 98 rationalism 127 reductionism, Cartesian 127, 130, 131, 158–9 Rees, Sir Martin, Our Final Century 41 religion 157–9 Rogers, James 79 Rogers, Richard, Cities for a Small Planet 87 Russell, Bertrand 44 Saunders, Dame Cicely 46 Saunders, Professor Peter 115 Schellnhuber, John 42 Schneider, Stephen 3, 8, 15, 28, 120 Schrödinger, Erwin 127 Schroeder, Professor Peter 121 Schwartzman, D.


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This Is Not a Drill: An Extinction Rebellion Handbook by Extinction Rebellion

3D printing, autonomous vehicles, banks create money, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, Colonization of Mars, crowdsourcing, David Attenborough, David Graeber, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, feminist movement, full employment, gig economy, global pandemic, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, mass immigration, Peter Thiel, place-making, quantitative easing, Ray Kurzweil, Sam Altman, smart grid, supply-chain management, the scientific method, union organizing, urban sprawl, wealth creators

So who am I to spread panic and fear when the world’s top scientists say we have twelve years? Like many readers, I had assumed the authority on climate was the IPCC – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – but it turns out they’ve been consistently underestimating the changes. In 2007 they said an ice-free Arctic was a possibility by 2100. That sounds far enough away to calm the nerves. But real-time measurements are documenting such rapid loss of ice that some of the world’s top climate scientists are saying it could be ice free in the next few years. Sea-level rise is a good indicator of the rate of change, because it is affected by many factors. In 2007, satellite data showed a sea-level rise of 3.3 millimetres per year. Yet that year the IPCC offered 1.94 millimetres a year as the lowest mark of its estimate for sea-level rise. Yes, you’re right: that’s lower than what was already happening.

We need to experiment wide and fast, and we need the finances and political support to do so. This is a climate and city emergency. To save the climate and the city, we need to think big, start small, but act now. 28/ WHAT IF … WE REDUCED CARBON EMISSIONS TO ZERO BY 2025? HAZEL HEALY In October 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a stark warning: enact urgent measures to limit global warming within the next twelve years or irrevocably deplete the ecosystems that sustain human life on Earth. By way of remedy, the IPCC recommends that we reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) to ‘net zero’ by 2050. The concept of ‘net zero’ controversially includes so-called ‘negative emissions’, which presumes the use of technologies that take carbon dioxide from the air and lock it into underground sinks and reservoirs.

The Maldivian people have no intention of becoming the first victims of the climate crisis. We are going to do everything in our power to keep our coral reefs intact and our heads above water. We harbour no illusions about the dangers climate change poses. For the Maldives, climate change isn’t an environmental issue. It is a national security threat. It is an existential emergency. The Maldives are disappearing. We will soon be under water. The recent IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report is crystal clear: emissions must be reduced by 45 per cent in twelve years to stabilize global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. That is a daunting task. And climate change is already upon us: weather patterns are changing; coral reefs are dying; erosion and water contamination are getting worse. But that doesn’t mean we are going to give up. We plan to survive in a warming world, any way we can.


pages: 264 words: 71,821

How Bad Are Bananas?: The Carbon Footprint of Everything by Mike Berners-Lee

air freight, carbon footprint, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Richard Feynman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Skype, sustainable-tourism, University of East Anglia

(Earthscan, London): Chapter 6, pp. 56–58, “Reducing black carbon.” Everything on black carbon is taken from this chapter. 20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group I Report: The Physical Science Basis (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Chapter 2; Ramanathan & Carmichael, op. cit. note 2.) Referenced in the Worldwatch Institute’s piece on black carbon (see note 9 above). Radiative forcing from black carbon is put at 0.4 to 0.9 watts per square meter (0.04 to 0.08 watts per square foot), in contrast with 1.6 watts per square meter (0.15 watts per square foot) for CO2. 21. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Global anthropogenic GHG emissions. In Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (IPPC, Geneva), p. 36. Adapted to include an emissions weighting factor of 1.9 for high-altitude emissions. 22. © SASI Group, University of Sheffield. 23. © SASI Group, University of Sheffield. 24. © SASI Group, University of Sheffield. 25.

I don’t know any scientists who have any time for his position at all, although some commentators treat his work with unwarranted respect in the misguided name of “balance” or perhaps just to be polite. In the name of open-mindedness I’ve looked in detail at several other “skeptics” and had a similar experience.2 So much for the skeptics. Let’s look at the mainstream scientific community. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change consists of around 2,500 scientists. The skeptics point out that there may be potential for group-think and mass hysteria. These are warnings that should be taken seriously. Furthermore, there have been occasional errors in the IPCC’s work, and even the hint of the odd deliberate misrepresentation. However, the standard of integrity that is demanded of the climate change believers is on a different plane altogether from that demanded of the skeptics. Some scientists at the University of East Anglia have been in world in headline-hitting trouble for allegedly “sexing up” their work in a way that the some of the skeptics would consider quite normal.

See construction industry human beings: individual footprints, 11, 137–38, 149–50, 161, 169; value of, 13–15. See also mortality hydrogen generation, 153 ice cream, 54 Iceland, 54, 56–58, 158, 162, 165–66, 167, 194 India, 103, 104, 152, 162, 165–66, 173, 194 indirect emissions, defined, 7 Indonesia, 152, 194 input–output analysis, 124, 141–42, 191–93 insulation, 120–22, 188, 189, 215nn6–7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 185–86 Inventory of Carbon and Energy, 191 investment, in renewable energy, 59–61 Iran, 194 Iraq wars, 168, 174 ironing, 25–26 jewelry, 122–23 junk mail. See mail Kemp, Roger, 43 Kenya, 208n35 Keswick Brewing Company, 50–51 lamb, 111. See also meat Lancaster University, 154–56 landfills. See waste management La Paz (Bolivia), 39 laundry, 25–26, 39–41, 86–87, 95–96, 209nn8–9 Leontief, Wassily, 192 life-cycle analysis, 124, 141–42, 190–91, 192 lights and light bulbs, 102 Lomborg, Bjørn, 184–85 London (U.K.), 44, 45 mail, 21, 45–47, 114, 204–5n11, 205n12 Malawi, 11, 137, 162, 167 Marcos, Imelda, 105, 212n1 marginal demand, 44, 57, 206n17 Market Transformation Programme, 191 measurement, units of, 10–11 meat: beef and burgers, 12, 22, 26, 42, 88–89, 97, 112, 158; lamb, 111; large footprint of, 177–78; reducing consumption, 180–81 metals, 61–63, 103–4, 122–23 methane: from agriculture, 91–92, 176–77; from egg production, 98; as greenhouse gas, 5, 6, 196n2, 196n3; from livestock, 73, 75, 88–89, 97, 111; world totals, 170, 171, 172, 173 Miliband, Ed, 40–41 milk.


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What's Next?: Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy by David Hale, Lyric Hughes Hale

affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, Bretton Woods, business cycle, capital controls, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, debt deflation, declining real wages, deindustrialization, diversification, energy security, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global village, high net worth, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, index fund, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Just-in-time delivery, Kenneth Rogoff, Long Term Capital Management, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage tax deduction, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, passive investing, payday loans, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, price stability, private sector deleveraging, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, regulatory arbitrage, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Thaler, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, technology bubble, The Great Moderation, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Tobin tax, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, Washington Consensus, Westphalian system, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, yield curve

He was appointed Adjunct Professor of Sustainable Resources Development in 2003. Concurrent with his position at ABARE, in 1993 Dr. Fisher was appointed one of the experts completing the socioeconomic assessment of climate change for the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report. He served as economic adviser to Australia’s negotiating team at the third Conference of the Parties in Kyoto. He also fulfilled this role at the fourth, fifth, and sixth Conferences of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and was engaged as one of the experts completing the IPCC’s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. Dr. Fisher has published more than 260 papers and monographs. ANNA MATYSEK BAEconomics Anna Matysek specializes in resource and environmental economics and has more than a decade’s experience working in the areas of scenario design, CGE modeling, policy advice, and climate change mitigation and adaptation.

As scientific understanding of the climate change problem has improved, it has become increasingly clear that substantial emissions reductions will be required to avoid significant increases in global average temperature. The following is a review of climate change policy rather than of the science of climate change. Although there is much uncertainty about the nature of climate change, we have taken the broad scientific consensus as presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as given and as a reasonable representation of the state of the science. The nature of the emission reductions being discussed in the international climate negotiations go well beyond mitigation efforts at the margin because they involve major energy system transitions. To achieve this in a way that does not stifle economic growth, particularly in the developing world, is a challenge of unprecedented proportions.

She has also worked as a consultant on major international mergers and acquisitions transactions. As a lead author for the East and South Asia region on the World Bank–sponsored Intergovernmental Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development, she worked with a diverse team to develop economic, trade, and environmental scenarios. Ms. Matysek was a lead author in the areas of long-term and industry mitigation on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This paper was completed while she was at BAEconomics. She has recently become General Manager, Strategy and IOG–Business Development at Rio Tinto. TIMOTHY CONGDON International Monetary Research Ltd. Tim Congdon is one of the world’s leading monetary analysts. After starting his career as a journalist for the Times of London, he became an economist in London in 1976.


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The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View From the Future by Naomi Oreskes, Erik M. Conway

anti-communist, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, laissez-faire capitalism, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, means of production, oil shale / tar sands, Pierre-Simon Laplace, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, stochastic process, the built environment, the market place

ening grave consequences if not rapidly controlled. Vari- ous groups and individuals began to argue for the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions and begin a transition to a non-carbon-based energy system. Historians view 1988 as the start of the Penumbral Period. In that year, world scientific and political leaders created a new, hybrid scientific-governmental organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to communicate relevant science and form the T h e C o m i N g o f T h e P e N u m b r A l A g e 5 foundation for international governance to protect the planet and its denizens. A year later, the Montreal Protocol to Control Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer became a model for international governance to protect the atmosphere, and in 1992, based on that model, world nations signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to prevent “danger- ous anthropogenic interference” in the climate system.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, IARC-JAXA Information System (IJIS), accessed October 10, 2013: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/ en/home/seaice_extent.htm; Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis, National Snow & Ice Data Center, accessed October 10, 2013: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/; Christine Dell’Amore, “Ten Thousand Walruses Gather on Island As Sea Ice Shrinks,” National Geographic, October 2, 2013; William M. Connolley, “Sea ice extent in million square kilometers,” accessed October 10, 2013: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Seaice-1870-part-2009.png. 20. Gerald A. Meehl and Thomas F. Stocker, “Global Climate Projections,” in Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007—The Physical Science Basis.” February 2, 2007. 21. Clifford Krauss, “Exxon and Russia’s Oil Company in Deal for Joint Projects,” The New York Times, April 16, 2012. 22. For statistics on continued coal and oil use in the mid-twentieth century, see U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2011 (Washington, D.C.: N o t e s 85 U.S.

The year 2009 is viewed as the “last best chance” the Western world had to save itself, as leaders met in Copenhagen, Denmark, to try, for the fifteenth time since the UNFCCC was written, to agree on a binding, international law to prevent disruptive climate change. Two years before, scientists involved in the IPCC had declared by the early 2000s, dangerous anthropogenic warming to anthropogenic interference in be “unequivocal,” and public the climate system was under opinion polls showed that way. fires, floods, hurricanes, a majority of people—even and heat waves began to intenin the recalcitrant United sify. Still, these effects were States—believed that action discounted. was warranted. But shortly before the meeting, a massive campaign was launched to discredit the scientists whose research underpinned the 8 T h e C o m i N g o f T h e P e N u m b r A l A g e IPCC’s conclusion. This campaign was funded primarily by fossil fuel corporations, whose annual profits at that time exceeded the GDPs of most countries.5 (At the time, most countries still used the archaic concept of a gross domestic product, a measure of consumption, rather than the Bhutanian concept of gross domestic happiness to evaluate well-being in a state.)


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The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves by Matt Ridley

"Robert Solow", 23andMe, agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, Corn Laws, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, falling living standards, feminist movement, financial innovation, Flynn Effect, food miles, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, happiness index / gross national happiness, haute cuisine, hedonic treadmill, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kula ring, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Northern Rock, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, packet switching, patent troll, Pax Mongolica, Peter Thiel, phenotype, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Productivity paradox, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Silicon Valley, spice trade, spinning jenny, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supervolcano, technological singularity, Thales and the olive presses, Thales of Miletus, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transaction costs, ultimatum game, upwardly mobile, urban sprawl, Vernor Vinge, Vilfredo Pareto, wage slave, working poor, working-age population, Y2K, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game

Abbasids 161, 178 Abelard, Peter 358 aborigines (Australian): division of labour 62, 63, 76; farming 127; technological regress 78–84; trade 90–91, 92 abortion, compulsory 203 Abu Hureyra 127 Acapulco 184 accounting systems 160, 168, 196 Accra 189 Acemoglu, Daron 321 Ache people 61 Acheulean tools 48–9, 50, 275, 373 Achuar people 87 acid rain 280, 281, 304–6, 329, 339 acidification of oceans 280, 340–41 Adams, Henry 289 Aden 177 Adenauer, Konrad 289 Aegean sea 168, 170–71 Afghanistan 14, 208–9, 315, 353 Africa: agriculture 145, 148, 154–5, 326; AIDS epidemic 14, 307–8, 316, 319, 320, 322; colonialism 319–20, 321–2; demographic transition 210, 316, 328; economic growth 315, 326–8, 332, 347; international aid 317–19, 322, 328; lawlessness 293, 320; life expectancy 14, 316, 422; per capita income 14, 315, 317, 320; poverty 314–17, 319–20, 322, 325–6, 327–8; prehistoric 52–5, 65–6, 83, 123, 350; property rights 320, 321, 323–5; trade 187–8, 320, 322–3, 325, 326, 327–8; see also individual countries African-Americans 108 agricultural employment: decline in 42–3; hardships of 13, 219–20, 285–6 agriculture: early development of 122–30, 135–9, 352, 387, 388; fertilisers, development of 135, 139–41, 142, 146, 147, 337; genetically modified (GM) crops 28, 32, 148, 151–6, 283, 358; hybrids, development of 141–2, 146, 153; and trade 123, 126, 127–33, 159, 163–4; and urbanisation 128, 158–9, 163–4, 215; see also farming; food supply Agta people 61–2 aid, international 28, 141, 154, 203, 317–19, 328 AIDS 8, 14, 307–8, 310, 316, 319, 320, 322, 331, 353 AIG (insurance corporation) 115 air conditioning 17 air pollution 304–5 air travel: costs of 24, 37, 252, 253; speed of 253 aircraft 257, 261, 264, 266 Akkadian empire 161, 164–5 Al-Ghazali 357 Al-Khwarizmi, Muhammad ibn Musa 115 Al-Qaeda 296 Albania 187 Alcoa (corporation) 24 Alexander the Great 169, 171 Alexander, Gary 295 Alexandria 171, 175, 270 Algeria 53, 246, 345 alphabet, invention of 166, 396 Alps 122, 178 altruism 93–4, 97 aluminium 24, 213, 237, 303 Alyawarre aborigines 63 Amalfi 178 Amazon (corporation) 21, 259, 261 Amazonia 76, 138, 145, 250–51 amber 71, 92 ambition 45–6, 351 Ames, Bruce 298–9 Amish people 211 ammonia 140, 146 Amsterdam 115–16, 169, 259, 368 Amsterdam Exchange Bank 251 Anabaptists 211 Anatolia 127, 128, 164, 165, 166, 167 Ancoats, Manchester 214 Andaman islands 66–7, 78 Andes 123, 140, 163 Andrew, Deroi Kwesi 189 Angkor Wat 330 Angola 316 animal welfare 104, 145–6 animals: conservation 324, 339; extinctions 17, 43, 64, 68, 69–70, 243, 293, 302, 338–9; humans’ differences from other 1, 2–4, 6, 56, 58, 64 Annan, Kofi 337 Antarctica 334 anti-corporatism 110–111, 114 anti-slavery 104, 105–6, 214 antibiotics 6, 258, 271, 307 antimony 213 ants 75–6, 87–8, 192 apartheid 108 apes 56–7, 59–60, 62, 65, 88; see also chimpanzees; orang-utans ‘apocaholics’ 295, 301 Appalachia 239 Apple (corporation) 260, 261, 268 Aquinas, St Thomas 102 Arabia 66, 159, 176, 179 Arabian Sea 174 Arabs 89, 175, 176–7, 180, 209, 357 Aral Sea 240 Arcadia Biosciences (company) 31–2 Archimedes 256 Arctic Ocean 125, 130, 185, 334, 338–9 Argentina 15, 186, 187 Arikamedu 174 Aristotle 115, 250 Arizona 152, 246, 345 Arkwright, Sir Richard 227 Armenians 89 Arnolfini, Giovanni 179 art: cave paintings 2, 68, 73, 76–7; and commerce 115–16; symbolism in 136; as unique human trait 4 Ashur, Assyria 165 Asimov, Isaac 354 Asoka the Great 172–3 aspirin 258 asset price inflation 24, 30 Assyrian empire 161, 165–6, 167 asteroid impacts, risk of 280, 333 astronomy 221, 270, 357 Athabasca tar sands, Canada 238 Athens 115, 170, 171 Atlantic Monthly 293 Atlantic Ocean 125, 170 Attica 171 Augustus, Roman emperor 174 Augustus the Strong, Elector of Saxony 184–5 Australia: climate 127, 241, 300, 334; prehistoric 66, 67, 69–70, 127; trade 187; see also aborigines (Australian); Tasmania Austria 132 Ausubel, Jesse 239, 346, 409 automobiles see cars axes: copper 123, 131, 132, 136, 271; stone 2, 5, 48–9, 50, 51, 71, 81, 90–91, 92, 118–19, 271 Babylon 21, 161, 166, 240, 254, 289 Bacon, Francis 255 bacteria: cross fertilisation 271; and pest control 151; resistance to antibiotics 6, 258, 271, 307; symbiosis 75 Baghdad 115, 177, 178, 357 Baines, Edward 227 Baird, John Logie 38 baking 124, 130 ‘balance of nature’, belief in 250–51 Balazs, Etienne 183 bald eagles 17, 299 Bali 66 Baltic Sea 71, 128–9, 180, 185 Bamako 326 bananas 92, 126, 149, 154, 392 Bangladesh 204, 210, 426 Banks, Sir Joseph 221 Barigaza (Bharuch) 174 barley 32, 124, 151 barrels 176 bartering vii, 56–60, 65, 84, 91–2, 163, 356 Basalla, George 272 Basra 177 battery farming 104, 145–6 BBC 295 beads 53, 70, 71, 73, 81, 93, 162 beef 186, 224, 308; see also cattle bees, killer 280 Beijing 17 Beinhocker, Eric 112 Bell, Alexander Graham 38 Bengal famine (1943) 141 benzene 257 Berlin 299 Berlin, Sir Isaiah 288 Bernard of Clairvaux, St 358 Berners-Lee, Sir Tim 38, 273 Berra, Yogi 354 Besant, Annie 208 Bhutan 25–6 Bible 138, 168, 396 bicycles 248–9, 263, 269–70 bin Laden, Osama 110 biofuels 149, 236, 238, 239, 240–43, 246, 300, 339, 343, 344, 346, 393 Bird, Isabella 197–8 birds: effects of pollution on 17, 299; killed by wind turbines 239, 409; nests 51; sexual differences 64; songbirds 55; see also individual species bireme galleys 167 Birmingham 223 birth control see contraception birth rates: declining 204–212; and food supply 192, 208–9; and industrialisation 202; measurement of 205, 403; population control policies 202–4, 208; pre-industrial societies 135, 137; and television 234; and wealth 200–201, 204, 205–6, 209, 211, 212; see also population growth Black Death 181, 195–6, 197, 380 Black Sea 71, 128, 129, 170, 176, 180 blogging 257 Blombos Cave, South Africa 53, 83 blood circulation, discovery of 258 Blunt, John 29 boat-building 167, 168, 177; see also canoes; ship-building Boers 321, 322 Bohemia 222 Bolivia 315, 324 Bolsheviks 324 Borlaug, Norman 142–3, 146 Borneo 339 Bosch, Carl 140, 412 Botswana 15, 316, 320–22, 326 Bottger, Johann Friedrich 184–5 Boudreaux, Don 21, 214 Boulton, Matthew 221, 256, 413–14 bows and arrows 43, 62, 70, 82, 137, 251, 274 Boxgrove hominids 48, 50 Boyer, Stanley 222, 405 Boyle, Robert 256 Bradlaugh, Charles 208 brain size 3–4, 48–9, 51, 55 Bramah, Joseph 221 Branc, Slovakia 136 Brand, Stewart 154, 189, 205 Brando, Marlon 110 brass 223 Brazil 38, 87, 123, 190, 240, 242, 315, 358 bread 38, 124, 140, 158, 224, 286, 392 bridges, suspension 283 Brin, Sergey 221, 405 Britain: affluence 12, 16, 224–5, 236, 296–7; birth rates 195, 200–201, 206, 208, 227; British exceptionalism 200–202, 221–2; climate change policy 330–31; consumer prices 24, 224–5, 227, 228; copyright system 267; enclosure acts 226, 323, 406; energy use 22, 231–2, 232–3, 342–3, 368, 430; ‘glorious revolution’ (1688) 223; income equality 18–19, 218; industrial revolution 201–2, 216–17, 220–32, 255–6, 258–9; life expectancy 15, 17–18; National Food Service 268; National Health Service 111, 261; parliamentary reform 107; per capita income 16, 218, 227, 285, 404–5; productivity 112; property rights 223, 226, 323–4; state benefits 16; tariffs 185–6, 186–7, 223; see also England; Scotland; Wales British Empire 161, 322 bronze 164, 168, 177 Brosnan, Sarah 59 Brown, Lester 147–8, 281–2, 300–301 Brown, Louise 306 Bruges 179 Brunel, Sir Marc 221 Buddhism 2, 172, 357 Buddle, John 412 Buffett, Warren 106, 268 Bulgaria 320 Burkina Faso 154 Burma 66, 67, 209, 335 Bush, George W. 161 Butler, Eamonn 105, 249 Byblos 167 Byzantium 176, 177, 179 cabbages 298 ‘Caesarism’ 289 Cairo 323 Calcutta 190, 315 Calico Act (1722) 226 Califano, Joseph 202–3 California: agriculture 150; Chumash people 62, 92–3; development of credit card 251, 254; Mojave Desert 69; Silicon Valley 221–2, 224, 257, 258, 259, 268 Cambodia 14, 315 camels 135, 176–7 camera pills 270–71 Cameroon 57 Campania 174, 175 Canaanites 166, 396 Canada 141, 169, 202, 238, 304, 305 Canal du Midi 251 cancer 14, 18, 293, 297–9, 302, 308, 329 Cannae, battle of 170 canning 186, 258 canoes 66, 67, 79, 82 capitalism 23–4, 101–4, 110, 115, 133, 214, 258–62, 291–2, 311; see also corporations; markets ‘Captain Swing’ 283 capuchin monkeys 96–7, 375 Caral, Peru 162–3 carbon dioxide emissions 340–47; absorption of 217; and agriculture 130, 337–8; and biofuels 242; costs of 331; and economic growth 315, 332; and fossil fuels 237, 315; and local sourcing of goods 41–2; taxes 346, 356 Cardwell’s Law 411 Caribbean see West Indies Carnegie, Andrew 23 Carney, Thomas 173 carnivorism 51, 60, 62, 68–9, 147, 156, 241, 376 carrots 153, 156 cars: biofuel for 240, 241; costs of 24, 252; efficiency of 252; future production 282, 355; hybrid 245; invention of 189, 270, 271; pollution from 17, 242; sport-utility vehicles 45 The Rational Optimist 424 Carson, Rachel 152, 297–8 Carter, Jimmy 238 Carthage 169, 170, 173 Cartwright, Edmund 221, 263 Castro, Fidel 187 Catalhoyuk 127 catallaxy 56, 355–9 Catholicism 105, 208, 306 cattle 122, 132, 145, 147, 148, 150, 197, 321, 336; see also beef Caucasus 237 cave paintings 2, 68, 73, 76–7 Cavendish, Henry 221 cement 283 central heating 16, 37 cereals 124–5, 125–6, 130–31, 143–4, 146–7, 158, 163; global harvests 121 Champlain, Samuel 138–9 charcoal 131, 216, 229, 230, 346 charitable giving 92, 105, 106, 295, 318–19, 356 Charles V: king of Spain 30–31; Holy Roman Emperor 184 Charles, Prince of Wales 291, 332 Chauvet Cave, France 2, 68, 73, 76–7 Chernobyl 283, 308, 345, 421 Chicago World Fair (1893) 346 chickens 122–3, 145–6, 147, 148, 408 chickpeas 125 Childe, Gordon 162 children: child labour 104, 188, 218, 220, 292; child molestation 104; childcare 2, 62–3; childhood diseases 310; mortality rates 14, 15, 16, 208–9, 284 Chile 187 chimpanzees 2, 3, 4, 6, 29, 59–60, 87, 88, 97 China: agriculture 123, 126, 148, 152, 220; birth rate 15, 200–201; coal supplies 229–30; Cultural Revolution 14, 201; diet 241; economic growth and industrialisation 17, 109, 180–81, 187, 201, 219, 220, 281–2, 300, 322, 324–5, 328, 358; economic and technological regression 180, 181–2, 193, 229–30, 255, 321, 357–8; energy use 245; income equality 19; innovations 181, 251; life expectancy 15; Longshan culture 397; Maoism 16, 187, 296, 311; Ming empire 117, 181–4, 260, 311; per capita income 15, 180; prehistoric 68, 123, 126; serfdom 181–2; Shang dynasty 166; Song dynasty 180–81; trade 172, 174–5, 177, 179, 183–4, 187, 225, 228 chlorine 296 cholera 40, 310 Chomsky, Noam 291 Christianity 172, 357, 358, 396; see also Catholicism; Church of England; monasteries Christmas 134 Chumash people 62, 92–3 Church of England 194 Churchill, Sir Winston 288 Cicero 173 Cilicia 173 Cisco Systems (corporation) 268 Cistercians 215 civil rights movement 108, 109 Clairvaux Abbey 215 Clark, Colin 146, 227 Clark, Gregory 193, 201, 401, 404 Clarke, Arthur C. 354 climate change 328–47, 426–30; costs of mitigation measures 330–32, 333, 338, 342–4; death rates associated with 335–7; and ecological dynamism 250, 329–30, 335, 339; and economic growth 315, 331–3, 341–3, 347; effects on ecosystems 338–41; and food supply 337–8; and fossil fuels 243, 314, 342, 346, 426; historic 194, 195, 329, 334, 426–7; pessimism about 280, 281, 314–15, 328–9; prehistoric 54, 65, 125, 127, 130, 160, 329, 334, 339, 340, 352; scepticism about 111, 329–30, 426; solutions to 8, 315, 345–7 Clinton, Bill 341 Clippinger, John 99 cloth trade 75, 159, 160, 165, 172, 177, 180, 194, 196, 225, 225–9, 232 clothes: Britain 224, 225, 227; early homo sapiens 71, 73; Inuits 64; metal age 122; Tasmanian natives 78 clothing prices 20, 34, 37, 40, 227, 228 ‘Club of Rome’ 302–3 coal: and economic take-off 201, 202, 213, 214, 216–17; and generation of electricity 233, 237, 239, 240, 304, 344; and industrialisation 229–33, 236, 407; prices 230, 232, 237; supplies 302–3 coal mining 132, 230–31, 237, 239, 257, 343 Coalbrookdale 407 Cobb, Kelly 35 Coca-Cola (corporation) 111, 263 coffee 298–9, 392 Cohen, Mark 135 Cold War 299 collective intelligence 5, 38–9, 46, 56, 83, 350–52, 355–6 Collier, Paul 315, 316–17 colonialism 160, 161, 187, 321–2; see also imperialism Colorado 324 Columbus, Christopher 91, 184 combine harvesters 158, 392 combined-cycle turbines 244, 410 commerce see trade Commoner, Barry 402 communism 106, 336 Compaq (corporation) 259 computer games 273, 292 computers 2, 3, 5, 211, 252, 260, 261, 263–4, 268, 282; computing power costs 24; information storage capacities 276; silicon chips 245, 263, 267–8; software 99, 257, 272–3, 304, 356; Y2K bug 280, 290, 341; see also internet Confucius 2, 181 Congo 14–15, 28, 307, 316 Congreve, Sir William 221 Connelly, Matthew 204 conservation, nature 324, 339; see also wilderness land, expansion of conservatism 109 Constantinople 175, 177 consumer spending, average 39–40 containerisation 113, 253, 386 continental drift 274 contraception 208, 210; coerced 203–4 Cook, Captain James 91 cooking 4, 29, 38, 50, 51, 52, 55, 60–61, 64, 163, 337 copper 122, 123, 131–2, 160, 162, 164, 165, 168, 213, 223, 302, 303 copyright 264, 266–7, 326 coral reefs 250, 339–40, 429–30 Cordoba 177 corn laws 185–6 Cornwall 132 corporations 110–116, 355; research and development budgets 260, 262, 269 Cosmides, Leda 57 Costa Rica 338 cotton 37, 108, 149, 151–2, 162, 163, 171, 172, 202, 225–9, 230, 407; calico 225–6, 232; spinning and weaving 184, 214, 217, 219–20, 227–8, 232, 256, 258, 263, 283 Coughlin, Father Charles 109 Craigslist (website) 273, 356 Crapper, Thomas 38 Crathis river 171 creationists 358 creative destruction 114, 356 credit cards 251, 254 credit crunch (2008) 8–10, 28–9, 31, 100, 102, 316, 355, 399, 411 Cree Indians 62 Crete 167, 169 Crichton, Michael 254 Crick, Francis 412 crime: cyber-crime 99–100, 357; falling rates 106, 201; false convictions 19–20; homicide 14, 20, 85, 88, 106, 118, 201; illegal drugs 106, 186; pessimism about 288, 293 Crimea 171 crocodiles, deaths by 40 Crompton, Samuel 227 Crookes, Sir William 140, 141 cruelty 104, 106, 138–9, 146 crusades 358 Cuba 187, 299 ‘curse of resources’ 31, 320 cyber-crime 99–100, 357 Cyprus 132, 148, 167, 168 Cyrus the Great 169 Dalkon Shield (contraceptive device) 203 Dalton, John 221 Damascus 127 Damerham, Wiltshire 194 Danube, River 128, 132 Darby, Abraham 407 Darfur 302, 353 Dark Ages 164, 175–6, 215 Darwin, Charles 77, 81, 91–2, 105, 116, 350, 415 Darwin, Erasmus 256 Darwinism 5 Davy, Sir Humphry 221, 412 Dawkins, Richard 5, 51 DDT (pesticide) 297–8, 299 de Geer, Louis 184 de Soto, Hernando 323, 324, 325 de Waal, Frans 88 Dean, James 110 decimal system 173, 178 deer 32–3, 122 deflation 24 Defoe, Daniel 224 deforestation, predictions of 304–5, 339 Delhi 189 Dell (corporation) 268 Dell, Michael 264 demographic transition 206–212, 316, 328, 402 Denmark 200, 344, 366; National Academy of Sciences 280 Dennett, Dan 350 dentistry 45 depression (psychological) 8, 156 depressions (economic) 3, 31, 32, 186–7, 192, 289; see also economic crashes deserts, expanding 28, 280 Detroit 315, 355 Dhaka 189 diabetes 156, 274, 306 Diamond, Jared 293–4, 380 diamonds 320, 322 Dickens, Charles 220 Diesel, Rudolf 146 Digital Equipment Corporation 260, 282 digital photography 114, 386 Dimawe, battle of (1852) 321 Diocletian, Roman emperor 175, 184 Diodorus 169 diprotodons 69 discount merchandising 112–14 division of labour: Adam Smith on vii, 80; and catallaxy 56; and fragmented government 172; in insects 75–6, 87–8; and population growth 211; by sex 61–5, 136, 376; and specialisation 7, 33, 38, 46, 61, 76–7, 175; among strangers and enemies 87–9; and trust 100; and urbanisation 164 DNA: forensic use 20; gene transfer 153 dogs 43, 56, 61, 84, 125 Doll, Richard 298 Dolphin, HMS 169 dolphins 3, 87 Domesday Book 215 Doriot, Georges 261 ‘dot-communism’ 356 Dover Castle 197 droughts: modern 241, 300, 334; prehistoric 54, 65, 334 drug crime 106, 186 DuPont (corporation) 31 dyes 167, 225, 257, 263 dynamos 217, 233–4, 271–2, 289 dysentery 157, 353 eagles 17, 239, 299, 409 East India Company 225, 226 Easter Island 380 Easterbrook, Greg 294, 300, 370 Easterlin, Richard 26 Easterly, William 318, 411 eBay (corporation) 21, 99, 100, 114, 115 Ebla, Syria 164 Ebola virus 307 economic booms 9, 29, 216 economic crashes 7–8, 9, 193; credit crunch (2008) 8–10, 28–9, 31, 100, 102, 316, 355, 399, 411; see also depressions (economic) ecosystems, dynamism of 250–51, 303, 410 Ecuador 87 Edinburgh Review 285 Edison, Thomas 234, 246, 272, 412 education: Africa 320; Japan 16; measuring value of 117; and population control 209, 210; universal access 106, 235; women and 209, 210 Edwards, Robert 306 Eemian interglacial period 52–3 Egypt: ancient 161, 166, 167, 170, 171, 192, 193, 197, 270, 334; Mamluk 182; modern 142, 154, 192, 301, 323; prehistoric 44, 45, 125, 126; Roman 174, 175, 178 Ehrenreich, Barbara 291 Ehrlich, Anne 203, 301–2 Ehrlich, Paul 143, 190, 203, 207, 301–2, 303 electric motors 271–2, 283 electricity 233–5, 236, 237, 245–6, 337, 343–4; costs 23; dynamos 217, 233–4, 271–2, 289 elephants 51, 54, 69, 303, 321 Eliot, T.S. 289 email 292 emigration 199–200, 202; see also migrations empathy 94–8 empires, trading 160–61; see also imperialism enclosure acts 226, 323, 406 endocrine disruptors 293 Engels, Friedrich 107–8, 136 England: agriculture 194–6, 215; infant mortality 284; law 118; life expectancy 13, 284; medieval population 194–7; per capita income 196; scientific revolution 255–7; trade 75, 89, 104, 106, 118, 169, 194; see also Britain Enron (corporation) 29, 111, 385 Erie, Lake 17 Erie Canal 139, 283 ethanol 240–42, 300 Ethiopia 14, 316, 319; prehistoric 52, 53, 129 eugenics 288, 329 Euphrates river 127, 158, 161, 167, 177 evolution, biological 5, 6, 7, 49–50, 55–6, 75, 271, 350 Ewald, Paul 309 exchange: etiquette and ritual of 133–4; and innovation 71–2, 76, 119, 167–8, 251, 269–74; and pre-industrial economies 133–4; and property rights 324–5; and rule of law 116, 117–18; and sexual division of labour 65; and specialisation 7, 10, 33, 35, 37–8, 46, 56, 58, 75, 90, 132–3, 350–52, 355, 358–9; and trust 98–100, 103, 104; as unique human trait 56–60; and virtue 100–104; see also bartering; markets; trade executions 104 extinctions 17, 43, 64, 68, 69–70, 243, 293, 302, 338–9 Exxon (corporation) 111, 115 eye colour 129 Ezekiel 167, 168 Facebook (website) 262, 268, 356 factories 160, 214, 218, 219–20, 221, 223, 256, 258–9, 284–5 falcons 299 family formation 195, 209–210, 211, 227 famines: modern 141, 143, 154, 199, 203, 302; pessimism about 280, 281, 284, 290, 300–302, 314; pre-industrial 45, 139, 195, 197 Faraday, Michael 271–2 Fargione, Joseph 242 farming: battery 104, 145–6; free-range 146, 308; intensive 143–9; organic 147, 149–52, 393; slash-and-burn 87, 129, 130; subsidies 188, 328; subsistence 87, 138, 175–6, 189, 192, 199–200; see also agriculture; food supply fascism 289 Fauchart, Emmanuelle 264 fax machines 252 Feering, Essex 195 Fehr, Ernst 94–6 female emancipation 107, 108–9, 209 feminism 109 Ferguson, Adam 1 Ferguson, Niall 85 Fermat’s Last Theorem 275 fermenting 130, 241 Ferranti, Sebastian de 234 Fertile Crescent 126, 251 fertilisation, in-vitro 306 fertilisers 32, 129, 135, 139–41, 142, 143, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149–50, 152, 155, 200, 337 Fibonacci 178 figs 125, 129 filariasis 310 Finland 15, 35, 261 fire, invention of 4, 50, 51, 52, 60, 274 First World War 289, 309 fish, sex-change 280, 293 fish farming 148, 155 fishing 62, 63–4, 71, 78–9, 81–2, 125, 127, 129, 136, 159, 162, 163, 327 Fishman, Charles 113 Flanders 179, 181, 194 flight, powered 257, 261, 264, 266 Flinders Island 81, 84 floods 128, 250, 329, 331, 334, 335, 426 Florence 89, 103, 115, 178 flowers, cut 42, 327, 328 flu, pandemic 28, 145–6, 308–310 Flynn, James 19 Fontaine, Hippolyte 233–4 food aid 28, 141, 154, 203 food miles 41–2, 353, 392; see also local sourcing food preservation 139, 145, 258 food prices 20, 22, 23, 34, 39, 40, 42, 240, 241, 300 food processing 29–30, 60–61, 145; see also baking; cooking food retailing 36, 112, 148, 268; see also supermarkets food sharing 56, 59–60, 64 food supply: and biofuels 240–41, 243, 300; and climate change 337–8; and industrialisation 139, 201–2; pessimism about 280, 281, 284, 290, 300–302; and population growth 139, 141, 143–4, 146–7, 192, 206, 208–9, 300–302 Ford, Ford Maddox 188 Ford, Henry 24, 114, 189, 271 Forester, Jay 303 forests, fears of depletion 304–5, 339 fossil fuels: and ecology 237, 240, 304, 315, 342–3, 345–6; fertilisers 143, 150, 155, 237; and industrialisation 214, 216–17, 229–33, 352; and labour saving 236–7; and productivity 244–5; supplies 216–17, 229–30, 237–8, 245, 302–3; see also charcoal; coal; gas, natural; oil; peat Fourier analysis 283 FOXP2 (gene) 55, 375 fragmentation, political 170–73, 180–81, 184, 185 France: capital markets 259; famine 197; infant mortality 16; population growth 206, 208; revolution 324; trade 184, 186, 222 Franco, Francisco 186 Frank, Robert 95–6 Franken, Al 291 Franklin, Benjamin 107, 256 Franks 176 Fray Bentos 186 free choice 27–8, 107–110, 291–2 free-range farming 146, 308 French Revolution 324 Friedel, Robert 224 Friedman, Milton 111 Friend, Sir Richard 257 Friends of the Earth 154, 155 Fry, Art 261 Fuji (corporation) 114, 386 Fujian, China 89, 183 fur trade 169, 180 futurology 354–5 Gadir (Cadiz) 168–9, 170 Gaelic language 129 Galbraith, J.K. 16 Galdikas, Birute 60 Galilee, Sea of 124 Galileo 115 Gandhi, Indira 203, 204 Gandhi, Sanjay 203–4 Ganges, River 147, 172 gas, natural 235, 236, 237, 240, 302, 303, 337 Gates, Bill 106, 264, 268 GDP per capita (world), increases in 11, 349 Genentech (corporation) 259, 405 General Electric Company 261, 264 General Motors (corporation) 115 generosity 86–7, 94–5 genetic research 54, 151, 265, 306–7, 310, 356, 358 genetically modified (GM) crops 28, 32, 148, 151–6, 283, 358 Genghis Khan 182 Genoa 89, 169, 178, 180 genome sequencing 265 geothermal power 246, 344 Germany: Great Depression (1930s) 31; industrialisation 202; infant mortality 16; Nazism 109, 289; population growth 202; predicted deforestation 304, 305; prehistoric 70, 138; trade 179–80, 187; see also West Germany Ghana 187, 189, 316, 326 Gibraltar, Strait of 180 gift giving 87, 92, 133, 134 Gilbert, Daniel 4 Gilgamesh, King 159 Ginsberg, Allen 110 Gintis, Herb 86 Gladstone, William 237 Glaeser, Edward 190 Glasgow 315 glass 166, 174–5, 177, 259 glass fibre 303 Global Humanitarian Forum 337 global warming see climate change globalisation 290, 358 ‘glorious revolution’ (1688) 223 GM (genetically modified) crops 28, 148, 151–6, 283, 358 goats 122, 126, 144, 145, 197, 320 Goethe, Johann von 104 Goklany, Indur 143–4, 341, 426 gold 165, 177, 303 golden eagles 239, 409 golden toads 338 Goldsmith, Edward 291 Google (corporation) 21, 100, 114, 259, 260, 268, 355 Gore, Al 233, 291 Goths 175 Gott, Richard 294 Gramme, Zénobe Théophile 233–4 Grantham, George 401 gravity, discovery of 258 Gray, John 285, 291 Great Barrier Reef 250 Greece: ancient 115, 128, 161, 170–71, 173–4; modern 186 greenhouse gases 152, 155, 242, 329; see also carbon dioxide emissions Greenland: ice cap 125, 130, 313, 334, 339, 426; Inuits 61; Norse 380 Greenpeace 154, 155, 281, 385 Grottes des Pigeons, Morocco 53 Groves, Leslie 412 Growth is Good for the Poor (World Bank study) 317 guano 139–40, 302 Guatemala 209 Gujarat 162, 174 Gujaratis 89 Gustavus Adolphus, King of Sweden 184 Gutenberg, Johann 184, 253 Guth, Werner 86 habeas corpus 358 Haber, Fritz 140, 412 Hadza people 61, 63, 87 Haiti 14, 301, 315 Halaf people 130 Hall, Charles Martin 24 Halley, Edmond 256 HANPP (human appropriation of net primary productivity) number 144–5 Hanseatic merchants 89, 179–80, 196 Hansen, James 426 hanta virus 307 happiness 25–8, 191 Harappa, Indus valley 161–2 Hardin, Garrett 203 harems 136 Hargreaves, James 227, 256 Harlem, Holland 215–16 Harper’s Weekly 23 Harvey, William 256 hay 214–15, 216, 239, 408–9 Hayek, Friedrich 5, 19, 38, 56, 250, 280, 355 heart disease 18, 156, 295 ‘hedonic treadmill’ 27 height, average human 16, 18 Heller, Michael 265–6 Hellespont 128, 170 Henrich, Joe 77, 377 Henry II, King of England 118 Henry, Joseph 271, 272 Henry, William 221 Heraclitus 251 herbicides 145, 152, 153–4 herding 130–31 Hero of Alexandria 270 Herschel, Sir William 221 Hesiod 292 Hippel, Eric von 273 hippies 26, 110, 175 Hiroshima 283 Hitler, Adolf 16, 184, 296 Hittites 166, 167 HIV/AIDS 8, 14, 307–8, 310, 316, 319, 320, 322, 331, 353 Hiwi people 61 Hobbes, Thomas 96 Hock, Dee 254 Hohle Fels, Germany 70 Holdren, John 203, 207, 311 Holland: agriculture 153; golden age 185, 201, 215–16, 223; horticulture 42; industrialisation 215–16, 226; innovations 264; trade 31, 89, 104, 106, 185, 223, 328 Holy Roman Empire 178, 265–6 Homer 2, 102, 168 Homestead Act (1862) 323 homicide 14, 20, 85, 88, 106, 118, 201 Homo erectus 49, 68, 71, 373 Homo heidelbergensis 49, 50–52, 373 Homo sapiens, emergence of 52–3 Hong Kong 31, 83, 158, 169, 187, 219, 328 Hongwu, Chinese emperor 183 Hood, Leroy 222, 405 Hooke, Robert 256 horses 48, 68, 69, 129, 140, 197, 215, 282, 408–9; shoes and harnesses 176, 215 housing costs 20, 25, 34, 39–40, 234, 368 Hoxha, Enver 187 Hrdy, Sarah 88 Huber, Peter 244, 344 Hueper, Wilhelm 297 Huguenots 184 Huia (birds) 64 human sacrifice 104 Hume, David 96, 103, 104, 170 humour 2 Hunan 177 Hungary 222 Huns 175 hunter-gatherers: consumption and production patterns 29–30, 123; division of labour 61–5, 76, 136; famines 45, 139; limitations of band size 77; modern societies 66–7, 76, 77–8, 80, 87, 135–6, 136–7; nomadism 130; nostalgia for life of 43–5, 135, 137; permanent settlements 128; processing of food 29, 38, 61; technological regress 78–84; trade 72, 77–8, 81, 92–3, 123, 136–7; violence and warfare 27, 44–5, 136, 137 hunting 61–4, 68–70, 125–6, 130, 339 Huron Indians 138–9 hurricanes 329, 335, 337 Hurst, Blake 152 Hutterites 211 Huxley, Aldous 289, 354 hydroelectric power 236, 239, 343, 344, 409 hyenas 43, 50, 54 IBM (corporation) 260, 261, 282 Ibn Khaldun 182 ice ages 52, 127, 329, 335, 340, 388 ice caps 125, 130, 313, 314, 334, 338–9, 426 Iceland 324 Ichaboe island 140 ‘idea-agora’ 262 imitation 4, 5, 6, 50, 77, 80 imperialism 104, 162, 164, 166, 172, 182, 319–20, 357; see also colonialism in-vitro fertilisation 306 income, per capita: and economic freedom 117; equality 18–19, 218–19; increases in 14, 15, 16–17, 218–19, 285, 331–2 India: agriculture 126, 129, 141, 142–3, 147, 151–2, 156, 301; British rule 160; caste system 173; economic growth 187, 358; energy use 245; income equality 19; infant mortality 16; innovations 172–3, 251; Mauryan empire 172–3, 201, 357; mobile phone use 327; population growth 202, 203–4; prehistoric 66, 126, 129; trade 174–5, 175, 179, 186–7, 225, 228, 232; urbanisation 189 Indian Ocean 174, 175 Indonesia 66, 87, 89, 177 Indus river 167 Indus valley civilisation 161–2, 164 industrialisation: and capital investment 258–9; and end of slavery 197, 214; and food production 139, 201–2; and fossil fuels 214, 216–17, 229–33, 352; and innovation 38, 220–24, 227–8; and living standards 217–20, 226–7, 258; pessimistic views of 42, 102–3, 217–18, 284–5; and productivity 227–8, 230–31, 232, 235–6, 244–5; and science 255–8; and trade 224–6; and urbanisation 188, 226–7 infant mortality 14, 15, 16, 208–9, 284 inflation 24, 30, 169, 289 influenza see flu, pandemic Ingleheart, Ronald 27 innovation: and capital investment 258–62, 269; and exchange 71–2, 76, 119, 167–8, 251, 269–74; and government spending programmes 267–9; increasing returns of 248–55, 274–7, 346, 354, 358–9; and industrialisation 38, 220–24, 227–8; and intellectual property 262–7, 269; limitlessness 374–7; and population growth 252; and productivity 227–8; and science 255–8, 412; and specialisation 56, 71–2, 73–4, 76–7, 119, 251; and trade 168, 171 insect-resistant crops 154–5 insecticides 151–2 insects 75–6, 87–8 insulin 156, 274 Intel (corporation) 263, 268 intellectual property 262–7; see also copyright; patents intensive farming 143–9 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 330, 331, 332, 333–4, 338, 342, 347, 425, 426, 427, 428 internal combustion engine 140, 146, 244 International Planned Parenthood Foundation 203 internet: access to 253, 268; blogging 257; and charitable giving 318–19, 356; cyber-crime 99–100, 357; development of 263, 268, 270, 356; email 292; free exchange 105, 272–3, 356; packet switching 263; problem-solving applications 261–2; search engines 245, 256, 267; shopping 37, 99, 107, 261; social networking websites 262, 268, 356; speed of 252, 253; trust among users 99–100, 356; World Wide Web 273, 356 Inuits 44, 61, 64, 126 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 330, 331, 332, 333–4, 338, 342, 347, 349, 425, 426, 427, 428 IQ levels 19 Iran 162 Iraq 31, 158, 161 Ireland 24, 129, 199, 227 iron 166, 167, 169, 181, 184, 223, 229, 230, 302, 407 irradiated food 150–51 irrigation 136, 147–8, 159, 161, 163, 198, 242, 281 Isaac, Glyn 64 Isaiah 102, 168 Islam 176, 357, 358 Israel 53, 69, 124, 148 Israelites 168 Italy: birth rate 208; city states 178–9, 181, 196; fascism 289; Greek settlements 170–71, 173–4; infant mortality 15; innovations 196, 251; mercantilism 89, 103, 178–9, 180, 196; prehistoric 69 ivory 70, 71, 73, 167 Jacob, François 7 Jacobs, Jane 128 Jamaica 149 James II, King 223 Japan: agriculture 197–8; birth rates 212; dictatorship 109; economic development 103, 322, 332; economic and technological regression 193, 197–9, 202; education 16; happiness 27; industrialisation 219; life expectancy 17, 31; trade 31, 183, 184, 187, 197 Jarawa tribe 67 Java 187 jealousy 2, 351 Jebel Sahaba cemeteries, Egypt 44, 45 Jefferson, Thomas 247, 249, 269 Jenner, Edward 221 Jensen, Robert 327 Jericho 127, 138 Jevons, Stanley 213, 237, 245 Jews 89, 108, 177–8, 184 Jigme Singye Wangchuck, King of Bhutan 25–6 Jobs, Steve 221, 264, 405 John, King of England 118 Johnson, Lyndon 202–3 Jones, Rhys 79 Jordan 148, 167 Jordan river 127 Joyce, James 289 justice 19–20, 116, 320, 358 Kalahari desert 44, 61, 76 Kalkadoon aborigines 91 Kanesh, Anatolia 165 Kangaroo Island 81 kangaroos 62, 63, 69–70, 84, 127 Kant, Immanuel 96 Kaplan, Robert 293 Kay, John 184, 227 Kazakhstan 206 Kealey, Terence 172, 255, 411 Kelly, Kevin 356 Kelvin, William Thomson, 1st Baron 412 Kenya 42, 87, 155, 209, 316, 326, 336, 353 Kerala 327 Kerouac, Jack 110 Khoisan people 54, 61, 62, 67, 116, 321 Kim Il Sung 187 King, Gregory 218 Kingdon, Jonathan 67 Kinneret, Lake 124 Klasies River 83 Klein, Naomi 291 Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (venture capitalists) 259 knowledge, increasing returns of 248–50, 274–7 Kodak (corporation) 114, 386 Kohler, Hans-Peter 212 Korea 184, 197, 300; see also North Korea; South Korea Kuhn, Steven 64, 69 kula (exchange system) 134 !

Nature 433:613-7.‘the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’. The full IPCC reports are available at www.ipcc.ch. p. 331 ‘the Dutch economist Richard Tol’. www.ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/20061031_tol.pdf. p. 331 ‘With a higher discount rate, Stern’s argument collapses’. See Weitzman, M. 2007. Review of the Stern Review on the economics of climate change. Journal of Economic Literature 45 (3): ‘The present discounted value of a given global-warming loss from a century hence at the non-Stern annual interest rate of 6 per cent is one-hundredth of the value of the same loss at Stern’s centuries-long discount rate of 1.4 per cent.’ p. 331 ‘Nigel Lawson asks, reasonably enough’. Lawson, N. 2008. An Appeal to Reason. Duckworth. p. 331 ‘all six of the IPCC’s scenarios assume that the world will experience so much economic growth that the people alive in 2100 will be on average 4–18 times as wealthy as we are today’. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipcc reports/sres/emission/014.htm.

Besides, even if the current alarm does prove exaggerated, there is now no doubt that the climate of this planet has been subject to natural lurches in the past, and that though luckily there has been no huge lurch for 8,200 years, there have been some civilisation-killing perturbations – as the ruins at both Angkor Wat and Chichen Itza probably testify. So if only hypothetically, it is worth asking whether civilisation could survive climate change at the rate assumed by the consensus of scientists who comprise the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – that is, that the earth will warm during this century by around 3°C. However, that is just a mid-range figure. In 2007 the IPCC used six ‘emissions scenarios’, ranging from a fossil-fuel-intensive, centennial global boom to something that sounds more like a sustainable, groovy fireside sing-along, to calculate how much temperature will increase during the century. The average temperature increases predicted for the end of this century ranged from 1.8°C to 4°C above 1990 levels.


pages: 829 words: 229,566

This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate by Naomi Klein

1960s counterculture, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, big-box store, bilateral investment treaty, British Empire, business climate, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, cognitive dissonance, coherent worldview, colonial rule, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, different worldview, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, energy security, energy transition, equal pay for equal work, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, financial deregulation, food miles, Food sovereignty, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, ice-free Arctic, immigration reform, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jones Act, Kickstarter, light touch regulation, market fundamentalism, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, new economy, Nixon shock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open borders, patent troll, Pearl River Delta, planetary scale, post-oil, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Rana Plaza, renewable energy transition, Ronald Reagan, smart grid, special economic zone, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, structural adjustment programs, Ted Kaczynski, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, wages for housework, walkable city, Washington Consensus, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks

For more information about the vulnerability of small island nations and coastal areas of Latin America and South and Southeast Asia to sea level rise under “business as usual” and other emissions scenarios (including more optimistic ones), refer to the Working Group II contributions to the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports of the IPCC, both available at http://www.ipcc.ch See chapters 10, 13, and 16 of M.L. Perry et al., ed., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007); and chapters 24, 27, and 29 of V.R. Barros et al., ed., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part B: Regional Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014). On California and the northeastern United States, see Matthew Heberger et al., “Potential Impacts of Increased Coastal Flooding in California Due to Sea-Level Rise,” Climatic Change 109, Issue 1 Supplement (2011): 229-249; and Asbury H.

., 15 Thoreau, Henry David, 184, 286 350.org, 140, 156, 233n, 353, 356 tidal power, 127 Tiger Management, 208 tight-rock formations, 311; see also shale, fracking of Tillerson, Rex, 111, 314 Time magazine, Planet Earth on cover of, 74, 204 Tiputini oil field, 410 Tjelmeland, Aaron, 192, 195 Tongue River, 389, 390 Tongue River Railroad (proposed), 389 tornados, 406 Toronto, 55, 65, 67, 73, 126 Total, 246 Totnes, England, 364 Toyota, 196 trade, see free trade agreements; international trade trade unions, 81, 83, 177, 204, 454 job creation and, 126–27 job protection by, 126, 178 NAFTA opposed by, 84 transaction tax, 418 TransCanada, 149, 346, 359, 361, 362 see also Keystone XL pipeline Transition Town movement, 364 Transocean, 330 Trans-Pacific Partnership, 78 transportation infrastructure, 85, 90, 127 travel, wealth and, 113 Treaty 6, 372 tree farms, 222 Trenberth, Kevin, 272, 275 Trent River, 300 trickle-down economics, 19 Trinity nuclear test, 277 triumphalism, 205, 465 Tropic of Chaos (Parenti), 49 tropics, techno-fixes and risk to, 49 Trump, Donald, 3 Tschakert, Petra, 269 Tsilhqot’in First Nation, 345 Tsipras, Alexis, 181–82, 466 Tsleil-Waututh First Nation, 323 Tutu, Desmond, 464 Tuvalu, 13 2 degrees Celsius boundary, 87–88, 89, 150, 354, 456 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 13, 21, 56, 86–87, 214, 283 typhoons, 107, 175, 406, 465 Uganda, 222 ultra-deepwater “subsalt” drilling, 145 Undesirables (Isaacs), 167 unemployment, 180 unemployment insurance, 454 Unified Campesino Movement of Aguán, 222 Union of Concerned Scientists, 201 Clean Vehicles Program at, 237 United Kingdom, 13, 149, 170, 224, 225 compensation of slave-owners in, 415–16, 457 “dash for cash” in, 299 divestment movement in, 354 flooding in, 7, 54, 106–7 fracking in, 299–300, 313 Industrial Revolution in, 172–73, 410 negatives of privatization in, 128 politics of climate change in, 36, 150 supports for renewable energy cut in, 110 Thatcher government of, 39 World War II rationing in, 115–16 United Nations, 7, 18, 64, 87, 114 Bloomberg as special envoy for cities and climate change of, 236 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), 219–20, 224, 226 climate governance and, 280 climate summits of, 5, 11, 65, 150, 165, 200; see also specific summits Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 110 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) international agreements and, 17 Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, 135 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment of 1972, 202 United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, 377, 383 United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 180 United Nations Environmental Modification Convention, 278 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 272 United Nations Framework on Climate Change, 200, 410 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 76, 77, 78–79 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 167 United Nations Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (1992), 55, 293 United Policyholders, 109 United States, 19, 67, 68, 143 carbon emissions from, 409 coal exports from, 320, 322, 346, 349, 374, 376 Copenhagen agreement signed by, 12, 150 energy privatization reversals in, 98 environmental legislation in, 201–2 failure of climate legislation in, 226–27 Kyoto Protocol and, 218–19, 225–26 oil and gas export restrictions in, 71 opposition movement in, 9 solar energy market in, 72 WTO challenges brought against, 65 WTO challenges brought by, 64–65, 68 United States Climate Action Partnership (USCAP), 226–28 University College London, 415–16 uranium, 176 urban planning, green, 16 urban sprawl, 90, 91 US Airways, 1–2 U.S.

As conference speaker Larry Bell succinctly puts it in his book Climate of Corruption, climate change “has little to do with the state of the environment and much to do with shackling capitalism and transforming the American way of life in the interests of global wealth redistribution.”7 Yes, there is a pretense that the delegates’ rejection of climate science is rooted in serious disagreement about the data. And the organizers go to some lengths to mimic credible scientific conferences, calling the gathering “Restoring the Scientific Method” and even choosing a name, the International Conference on Climate Change, that produces an organizational acronym, ICCC, just one letter off from that of the world’s leading authority on climate change, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a collaboration of thousands of scientists and 195 governments. But the various contrarian theses presented at the Heartland conference—tree rings, sunspots, the Medieval Warm Period—are old news and were thoroughly debunked long ago. And most of the speakers are not even scientists but rather hobbyists: engineers, economists, and lawyers, mixed in with a weatherman, an astronaut, and a “space architect”—all convinced they have outsmarted 97 percent of the world’s climate scientists with their back-of-the-envelope calculations.8 Australian geologist Bob Carter questions whether warming is happening at all, while astrophysicist Willie Soon acknowledges some warming has occurred, but says it has nothing to do with greenhouse emissions and is instead the result of natural fluctuations in the activity of the sun.


pages: 443 words: 112,800

The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World by Jeremy Rifkin

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, additive manufacturing, Albert Einstein, American ideology, barriers to entry, borderless world, carbon footprint, centre right, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate governance, decarbonisation, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, global supply chain, hydrogen economy, income inequality, industrial cluster, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job automation, knowledge economy, manufacturing employment, marginal employment, Martin Wolf, Masdar, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, new economy, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, purchasing power parity, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, scientific worldview, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, supply-chain management, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, urban planning, urban renewal, Yom Kippur War, Zipcar

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/frontmattersforeword.html. 34.Solomon, S., et al. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm. 35.Bernstein, L., Bosch, P., Canziani, O., Chen, Z., Christ, R., Davidson, O., Yohe, G. (2007, November 17). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. 36.Raup, D.

Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Change. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 254. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf 41.Bernstein, L., Bosch, P., Canziani, O., Chen, Z., Christ, R., Davidson, O., Yohe, G. (2007, November 17). Observed Changes in Climate and Their Effects. In Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 32. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. 42.Webster, P., Holland, G., Curry, J., & Chang, H. (2005). Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in Warming Environment.

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 49. 45.Parry, M., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., van der Linden, P., & Hanson, C. (2007). Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic). In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 676. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch15.html; Instanes, A. (2005). Infrastructure: Buildings, Support Systems, and Industrial Facilities. In Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from http://www.acia.uaf.edu/PDFs/ACIA_Science_Chapters_Final/ACIA_Ch16_Final.pdf. 46.Lean, G. (2008, August 31).


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Hot: Living Through the Next Fifty Years on Earth by Mark Hertsgaard

addicted to oil, Berlin Wall, business continuity plan, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth, en.wikipedia.org, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fixed income, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kickstarter, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, peak oil, Port of Oakland, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, the built environment, transatlantic slave trade, transit-oriented development, University of East Anglia, urban planning

I could not have written this book without relying on the voluminous scientific research that has been done on global warming and climate change and, equally important, the efforts of scientifically literate experts to explain those findings in ways that a non-scientist such as myself can understand. A foundation source is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC has been criticized over the years, both by deniers of climate change who focus on a handful of errors in thousands of pages of text to try to discredit the entirety of climate science and, on the other side, by scientists and advocates who complain that the IPCC's procedures (including the control that governments exercise over the executive summaries of IPCC assessments) make its reports overly conservative and dated. Nevertheless, the IPCC's reports, especially its four Assessment Reports (published in 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007), are necessary (if often dry and technical) reading for any student of climate change. Beyond the IPCC, Mark Lynas, a science writer based in Oxford, has written one of the essential books on the subject, Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (London: Harper Collins, 2007).

No comparably prominent scientist in the United States was saying this sort of thing publicly in 2005. In particular, King's assertions went beyond the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international group of scientists and experts the UN had created in 1988 to advise the world's governments on global warming. The IPCC had issued three major reports on climate change by the time I interviewed King. Its First Assessment Report appeared in 1990, its Second Assessment Report in 1995, and its Third Assessment Report in 2001. Only in its Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007, eighteen months after our interview, did the IPCC declare that the scientific evidence for man-made global warming was "unequivocal" and that long-term sea level rise and other impacts of climate change had become inevitable.

"This Was a Crime" [>] Epilogue: Chiara in the Year 2020 [>] Acknowledgments [>] Notes [>] Index [>] Prologue: Growing Up Under Global Warming Working on climate change used to be about saving the world for future generations. Not anymore. Now it's not only your daughter who is at risk, it's probably you as well. —MARTIN PARRY, co-chair of the Fourth Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change I covered the environmental beat for fifteen years before I became a father. Much of that time was spent overseas, where, like many other journalists, I saw more than my share of heartbreaking things happening to children. But they were always other people's children. My first time was in the old Soviet Union, where I exposed a series of nuclear disasters that had been kept secret for decades by both the KGB and the CIA.


pages: 427 words: 111,965

The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth by Tim Flannery

Alfred Russel Wallace, carbon footprint, clean water, cross-subsidies, decarbonisation, Doomsday Clock, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, South China Sea, Stephen Hawking, uranium enrichment, Y2K

We must break now from this catalogue of infamy to examine the workings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC is not an industry or lobby group. It was established in 1988 and is a joint subsidiary body of the United Nations environment program and the World Meterological Organization. Its workings illustrate how industry uses proxies to slow down, and tone down, the vital work carried out by the group. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC was released in 2001 and is the work of 426 experts, whose conclusions were refereed (twice) by 440 reviewers and overseen by thirty-three editors, before finally being approved by delegates from 100 countries. As you might guess, the report is as dull as dishwater and confines itself to the lowest common denominator. To understand why this is so, it is important to know the IPCC’s modus operandi and membership.

As early as 1975, Syukuro Manabe, who was then working at the US Weather Bureau, and his collaborator Richard Wetherald, used computer models to investigate the consequences of a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere.2 They found that it would cause a rise in the average surface temperature of the Earth of 2.4°C. By 1979 more technologically advanced models had been employed, and these suggested that the rise was more likely to be 3.5 to 3.9°C, give or take a couple of degrees.3 Astonishingly, for over twenty years this prediction and its degree of uncertainty hardly changed: in 2001 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was still giving the outcome as 3°C, give or take a couple of degrees. The explanation seems to be that while the increasingly sophisticated computer models eliminated sources of uncertainty in their programs, they had to incorporate more uncertainty from the real world. This situation, however, is now changing. Today there are around ten different global circulation models seeking to simulate the way the atmosphere behaves, and to predict how it will behave in the future.4 The most sophisticated of them reside at the Hadley Centre in England, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany.

See also clathrates; glaciers; sea ice ice ages, 15-16, 54-55, 57-59, 68, 143 and carbon dioxide, 40, 66 causes of, 40, 41-42 ice caps, 57, 144, 147-49 Iceland, 225, 276 India, 140-41, 230, 275-76, 288 Indian Ocean, 108, 125, 128-29 Indonesia, 105-6, 107 Industrial Revolution, 28-29, 37, 64 In Search of the Golden Frog (Crump), 116-17 insects Anopheles mosquito, 177 butterflies, 88, 89 Euphydryas editha (Edith’s checkerspot butterfly), 88 Operopthera brumata (winter moth), 89-90 spruce bark beetle, 98 Institute of Public Affairs (Australia), 244 insurance industry, 235-36 Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, 286 International Energy Agency, 255 International Ozone Commission, 214 Inuit, 100, 102, 169, 218, 286-87 invertebrates, 176-77 oysters, 186 pectens, 186 salps, 97 starfish, crown of thorns, 106 Tiphoboia horei (spined snail), 91 worms, marine, 199 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 146, 208, 241, 245-46 Irish Sea, 60 isotopes, 49, 57, 196-97 Japan, 226, 227-28, 271, 280 Jet Stream, 84, 86, 132 Jorgenson, Dale, 234 Judah, Tim, 126 Karoly, David, 128 Karoo (South Africa), 180 Keeling, Charles, 25 Keeling curve, 25-26 Kiribati, 84, 287 Knutson, Thomas, 312 Korea, 138, 230 krill, 96-98 KWR (Quaker Chemical Corp.), 305 Kyoto Protocol, 222-31, 289, 291-92 carbon credits, 225, 227-28, 299-300 carbon dollars, 224, 228-29, 291-92 costs of compliance, 232-35 costs of inaction, 235-36 criticism of, 224, 228 developing world and, 229-30, 300 economic aspects, 224-25, 226-29, 233 emissions trading, 228-29 energy industry and, 227, 243-45 non-signatories, 7, 213, 223, 237 ratification, 213, 223, 224 Lackner, Klaus, 34 Lacour-Gayet, Philippe, 254 Lamb, H.


pages: 148 words: 45,249

Losing Earth: A Recent History by Nathaniel Rich

Dissolution of the Soviet Union, energy security, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, oil shale / tar sands, planetary scale, Ronald Reagan, spinning jenny, the scientific method

Margaret Thatcher, who had studied chemistry at Oxford, warned in a speech to the Royal Society that global warming could “greatly exceed the capacity of our natural habitat to cope” and that “the health of the economy and the health of our environment are totally dependent upon each other.” It was at this moment—when the environmental movement was, in the words of one energy lobbyist, “on a tear”—that the United Nations unanimously endorsed the establishment, by UNEP and the WMO, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to be composed of scientists and policymakers who would conduct scientific assessments and develop a global climate policy. During the transition period, Bush’s administration invited the IPCC’s Response Strategies Working Group, the body responsible for planning a climate treaty, to hold one of its first sessions at the U.S. State Department. Bush had promised to combat the greenhouse effect with the White House effect. The self-proclaimed environmentalist would soon be seated in the Oval Office.

The climate scientist James Hansen has called a 2-degree warming “a prescription for long-term disaster.” Long-term disaster is now the best-case scenario. A 3-degree warming, on the other hand, is a prescription for short-term disaster: forests sprouting in the Arctic, the abandonment of most coastal cities, mass starvation. Robert Watson, a former chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has argued that a 3-degree warming is the realistic minimum. Four degrees: Europe in permanent drought; vast areas of China, India, and Bangladesh claimed by desert; Polynesia swallowed by the sea; the Colorado River thinned to a trickle. The prospect of a 5-degree warming prompts some of the world’s preeminent climate scientists, not an especially excitable type, to warn of the fall of human civilization.

It was important, he emphasized, that whatever happened next, the industry had to stand together. The industry journalists dutifully marked down his words. 18. The Great Includer and the Old Engineer Spring 1989 The IPCC’s Response Strategies Working Group convened at the State Department ten days after Bush’s inauguration to begin the process of negotiating a global treaty. James Baker III chose the occasion to make his first speech as secretary of state. He had received a memo from Frederick M. Bernthal, a former nuclear regulatory commissioner and chemistry professor who was an assistant secretary of state for international environmental affairs and had been named the chairman of the IPCC working group. In frank, brittle prose, Bernthal argued that it was prudent to begin a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions; the costs of inaction were simply too high.


pages: 1,373 words: 300,577

The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World by Daniel Yergin

"Robert Solow", addicted to oil, Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, borderless world, BRICs, business climate, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, cleantech, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, colonial rule, Colonization of Mars, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, diversification, diversified portfolio, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, financial innovation, flex fuel, global supply chain, global village, high net worth, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, life extension, Long Term Capital Management, Malacca Straits, market design, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mohammed Bouazizi, mutually assured destruction, new economy, Norman Macrae, North Sea oil, nuclear winter, off grid, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, Piper Alpha, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Robert Metcalfe, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Sand Hill Road, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, smart grid, smart meter, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Stuxnet, technology bubble, the built environment, The Nature of the Firm, the new new thing, trade route, transaction costs, unemployed young men, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, Yom Kippur War

But the absence of television cameras certainly indicated that climate change was not yet an issue that would light up the public’s imagination. 16 THE IPCC AND THE “INDISPENSABLE MAN” But before the year was out, and far from the glare of public attention, the decisive step would be taken that would frame how the world sees climate change today. In November 1988 a group of scientists met in Geneva to inaugurate the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This launch might have been lost in the alphabet soup of international agencies, conferences, and programs, but over the course of the next two decades, it would rise out of obscurity to shape the international discourse on this issue. The IPCC drew its legitimacy from two international organizations, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Development Program. But the IPCC itself was not an organization in any familiar sense.

On that day, a committee of the Norwegian parliament awarded the Nobel Peace Prize jointly to Al Gore and to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. “We must begin by making the common rescue of the global environment the central organizing principle of the world community,” said Gore in his acceptance speech. The world, he declared, faced “a planetary emergency.”15 Gore, of course, was eminently recognizable in the photographs from Oslo. But who was that other person, standing next to him, somewhat incongruous in a Nehru jacket, with his long black hair merging into a black-and-white beard who described himself as “the bearded face of the IPCC”? This was Rajendra Pachauri, an Indian economist and engineer who was accepting the award on behalf of the IPCC because he was its chairman. Pachauri coordinated a complex international network that involved the work of 450 lead authors, 2,500 scientific expert reviewers, and 800 contributing authors, representing altogether 113 countries—along with the representatives of those governments, all of whom had to acquiesce at least to the overall summary.

King Hubbert’s Peak Hubbert’s Pimple Hu Jintao Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Rita Hussein, Saddam Gulf War and Iraq War and hydraulic fracturing, see fraccing hydrocarbonolostic hydrocarbons see also coal; gas, natural; oil hydrogen hydrogen bomb hydrogen sulfide hydrolysis hydropower in California in China as fuel choice Ibn Saud, King of Saudi Arabia Icahn, Carl ice ages Ikeguchi, Kotaro (Taichi Sakaiya) Imle, John Immelt, Jeff Inconvenient Truth, An Independent System Operator (ISO) India automobiles in as BRIC climate change and coal use in economy and economic growth of electricity in energy security and gas price subsidies in hydropower in nuclear power of nuclear weapons of pipelines and wind energy in Indian Ocean Indonesia Jakarta OPEC meeting in (Nov. 1997) as LNG supplier as “new tiger,” oil production in Industrial Revolution industry, energy efficiency of inflation China and price controls and information technology (IT) innovation in buildings electricity and LNG and oil and renewables and see also shale gas; technology Institute for Advanced Study Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Insull, Samuel integrated companies Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) polarization over process of reports of Interior Department, U.S. internal combustion engine (ICE) Internal Revenue Service (IRS) International Association for Energy Economics International Atomic Energy Agency International Energy Agency (IEA) International Energy Forum International Energy Treaty International Geophysical Year (IGY) International Monetary Fund International Petroleum Exchange Internet Arab Awakening and cybercriminals and electricity and investment in biofuels Chinese in Chinese oil companies demand shock and in electricity in energy efficiency Exxon’s process for Iran and in Iraq in Kazakhstan in Qatar in renewables sovereign wealth funds and U.S.


pages: 501 words: 114,888

The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives by Peter H. Diamandis, Steven Kotler

Ada Lovelace, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, blood diamonds, Burning Man, call centre, cashless society, Charles Lindbergh, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, Colonization of Mars, computer vision, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Dean Kamen, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, digital twin, disruptive innovation, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, experimental economics, food miles, game design, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, gig economy, Google X / Alphabet X, gravity well, hive mind, housing crisis, Hyperloop, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, late fees, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, lifelogging, loss aversion, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mary Lou Jepsen, mass immigration, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mobile money, multiplanetary species, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, Oculus Rift, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer lending, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, QR code, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart contracts, smart grid, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, stealth mode startup, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supercomputer in your pocket, supply-chain management, technoutopianism, Tesla Model S, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, X Prize

See: https://www.fastcompany.com/3015616/the-shocking-stats-about-whos-really-starting-companies-in-america. 33 percent of venture-backed companies: Mark Boslet, “NVCA Study Finds ⅓ Of Recently Public Venture Companies Have Immigrant Founders,” PE Hub Network, June 20, 2013, See: http://nvcaccess.nvca.org/index.php/topics/public-policy/372-nvca-releases-results-from-american-made-20.html. half of all unicorns: Stuart Anderson, “Immigrants and Billion Dollar Startups,” National Foundation for American Policy, March 2016. See: http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Immigrants-and-Billion-Dollar-Startups.NFAP-Policy-Brief.March-2016.pdf. Climate Migrations the very first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: “Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2010. See: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-the-ipcc-1990-and-1992-assessments/. Oxford scientist Norman Myers: Norman Myers, “Environmental Refugees: A Growing Phenomenon of the 21st Century,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, May 2002, DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2001.0953. as Mark Levine explained in Outside magazine: Mark Levine, “A Storm at the Bone: A Personal Exploration into Deep Weather,” Outside, November 1, 1998.

Climate Migrations While the last chapter examined technological ways to mitigate climate change, this one acknowledges that our ability to implement these solutions at scale is nowhere near where it needs to be. And make no mistake, when the weather shifts, people shift with it. Estimates of this impact are startling. And climbing. In 1990, the very first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report warned that even a slight rise in sea levels could produce “tens of millions of environmental refugees.” In 1993, Oxford scientist Norman Myers controversially updated the IPCC’s prediction, arguing that climate change could displace as many as 200 million people by 2050. By decade’s end, as Mark Levine explained in Outside magazine: “The weather [had] come to assume the shape of our collective anxieties, our fantasies about technology, nature, retribution, inevitability.… We have overstepped, we whisper, we have changed the weather.

See: https://www.fastcompany.com/90278853/the-meat-growing-in-this-san-francisco-lab-will-soon-be-available-at-restaurants. Perfect Day Foods: See: https://www.perfectdayfoods.com/. See also: Alexandra Wilson, “Got Milk? This $40M Startup Is Creating Cow-Free Dairy Products That Taste like the Real Thing,” Forbes, January 9, 2019. PART 3: THE FASTER FUTURE Chapter Thirteen: Threats and Solutions Water Woes “Special Report on Global Warming”: The intergovernmental panel on climate change, see: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/. Global Risks Report: World Economic Forum, “Global Risks Report 2018: 13th Edition,” January 17, 2018. See: https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2018. Dean Kamen: Dean Kamen, author interview, 2018. For more information about Dean Kamen, see his bio on the FIRST Robotics website here: https://www.firstinspires.org/about/leadership/dean-kamen.


pages: 343 words: 101,563

The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming by David Wallace-Wells

"Robert Solow", agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Asian financial crisis, augmented reality, basic income, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, cognitive bias, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, Donald Trump, effective altruism, Elon Musk, endowment effect, energy transition, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, failed state, fiat currency, global pandemic, global supply chain, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, Joan Didion, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, labor-force participation, life extension, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, megacity, megastructure, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, nuclear winter, Pearl River Delta, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, postindustrial economy, quantitative easing, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sam Altman, Silicon Valley, Skype, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, the built environment, the scientific method, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, Whole Earth Catalog, William Langewiesche, Y Combinator

Conway, Merchants of Doubt (New York: Bloomsbury, 2010) and Michael E. Mann and Tom Toles, The Madhouse Effect (New York: Columbia University Press, 2016). a recent survey of movies: Peter Kareiva and Valerie Carranza, “Existential Risk Due to Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back,” Futures, September 2018. less than 40 percent: According to the IPCC, the figure is 35 percent: see IPCC, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, 2014). world’s ten biggest oil companies: Claire Poole, “The World’s Largest Oil and Gas Companies 2018: Royal Dutch Shell Surpasses Exxon as Top Dog,” Forbes, June 6, 2018. 15 percent of the world’s emissions: According to the World Resources Institute, the figure was 14.36 percent in 2017: Johannes Friedrich, Mengpin Ge, and Andrew Pickens, “This Interactive Chart Explains World’s Top Ten Emitters, and How They’ve Changed,” World Resources Institute, April 11, 2017, www.wri.org/blog/2017/04/interactive-chart-explains-worlds-top-10-emitters-and-how-theyve-changed.

It is complicated research, because it is built on two layers of uncertainty: what humans will do, mostly in terms of emitting greenhouse gases, and how the climate will respond, both through straightforward heating and a variety of more complicated, and sometimes contradictory, feedback loops. But even shaded by those uncertainty bars it is also very clear research, in fact terrifyingly clear. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) offers the gold-standard assessments of the state of the planet and the likely trajectory for climate change—gold-standard, in part, because it is conservative, integrating only new research that passes the threshold of inarguability. A new report is expected in 2022, but the most recent one says that if we take action on emissions soon, instituting immediately all of the commitments made in the Paris accords but nowhere yet actually implemented, we are likely to get about 3.2 degrees of warming, or about three times as much warming as the planet has seen since the beginning of industrialization—bringing the unthinkable collapse of the planet’s ice sheets not just into the realm of the real but into the present.

., “Global Non-Linear Effect of Temperature on Economic Production,” Nature 527 (October 2015): pp. 235–39, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature15725. There is a 51 percent chance: Marshall Burke, “Economic Impact of Climate Change on the World,” http://web.stanford.edu/~mburke/climate/map.php. a team led by Thomas Stoerk: Thomas Stoerk et al., “Recommendations for Improving the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainty in Economic Estimates of Climate Impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 12, no. 2 (August 2018): pp. 371–76, https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rey005. global boom of the early 1960s: World Bank, “GDP Growth (Annual %),” https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. There are places that benefit: Burke, “Economic Impact of Climate Change,” http://web.stanford.edu/~mburke/climate/map.php.


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Twilight of Abundance: Why the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short by David Archibald

Bakken shale, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, deindustrialization, energy security, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), means of production, mutually assured destruction, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, peak oil, price discovery process, rising living standards, sceptred isle, South China Sea, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War

Their paper predicted that Solar Cycles 24 and 25 would have amplitudes similar to those of Solar Cycles 5 and 6 of the Dalton Minimum before a return to more normal levels mid-century.15 A Finnish tree-ring study followed in 2007 with a forecast cold period, beginning about 2015, deeper and broader than any cold period of the last 500 years.16 WHY DID SO MANY SCIENTISTS GET IT WRONG? How can the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Academy of Sciences in the United States, the Royal Society in the United Kingdom, and the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO in Australia all be so wrong? There are not very many scientists involved in the IPCC deliberations. The inner circle ultimately responsible for these organizations’ policy is possibly twenty souls. The question that needs to be asked is, “Did IPCC scientists actually believe in the global warming that they were promoting?” Apparently they did, and possibly still do. That is shown by the Climategate emails17 released on November 20, 2009, and a second batch of emails released two years later. The fact that the IPCC scientists believed in the global warming they were promoting means that their morality was better than some have suspected.

Meanwhile, changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will have a minuscule effect on climate. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is not even a little bit bad. It is, in fact, wholly beneficial. The more carbon dioxide we can put into the atmosphere, the better life on Earth will be for human beings and all other living things. If all that is true, you will ask, how is it that the United Nations–derived Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came up with its ice cap–melting prediction of a 6°C increase in average global temperature by the end of this century? The notorious Climategate emails,1 released on November 20, 2009, appear to show scientists manipulating data to produce the answers they desired, bullying those who disagreed with them, plotting against scientific journal editors, and deliberately concocting misleading figures, among other apparent acts of willful malfeasance.

See Core countries (“the Core”) G G20, 4, 61 Gabala, 102 Gaddafi, Muammar, 54 Gandhi, Indira, 91 Gates, Robert, 128 Geophysical Research Letters, 30 Germany, 40, 68, 108–9, 114, 145–46 Giaever, Ivar, 168–69 glaciations, 16–17, 24, 166 Gleissberg cycle, the, 51 global warming Climategate and, 28–31 as cult, 4–5, 8–9, 57, 167, 178–79 disproving the theory of, x, 13, 15, 32, 166 IEA and, 140 public policy and, 140, 147, 151–52, 165, 170, 172, 177 science and, 5–6, 12, 22, 26, 35–36, 140, 168–69 too much focus on, vii–viii, 178–79 as worldwide conspiracy, 4, 61, 86, 115 Gōngjiàn Shou (character in “A Picture from a Possible Future”), 131, 134 grain 1816 and, 39 Brazil and, 59–60 Canada and, 2, 40 China and, 60, 67, 179 climate and, 2, 4, 6, 49–41, 64–66, 178–79 contamination of, 105–6 MENA region and, 44–58, 62–63, 95 Mexico and, 58–59 Russia and, 2, 59–60 South Africa and, 69 supply of (world), 1–2, 4, 6, 40–41, 58–61, 64–66, 153, 178–79 UK and, 7 U.S. and, 59–60, 66–67, 179 grain belts, 2, 4, 6, 41 Great Barrier Reef, the, 16 Great Depression, the, 65 Great Leap Forward (China), 60, 64–65, 112, 179 Great Plains, 24–25 Great Plains Synfuels Plant, 146–47, 149, 172 Greenland, 13–14 Green River Formation, 160–61, 171 Guam, 115, 127, 130–34 Gulf of Mexico, 24–25, 37, 144–45 H Hahn, Otto, 86 Hainan Island, 108 Haiti, 76, 186–87 Hanover, NH, temperature record, 21 Hanson, Victor David, 73–75 Hargraves, Robert, 163 Harrison, Mark, 117 Hawaii, 110 Haynesville Shale, 143 heroin, 45, 47 High Altitude Observatory, 22 Hiroshima, 88–90, 102–3 Hobbes, Thomas, 16 Holocene interglacial period, 16, 18, 166 Holocene Optimum, 16 Hoover Digest, 117 Hubbert, M. King, 140–41, 143 Hulme, Mike, 29 Huntington, Samuel, 107 I Iceland, 36–37 India, Indian, 23, 68, 74, 90–96, 180 Indian drought of 1967, 58 Indian Ocean, 53, 96 Indonesia, 68, 109 Industrial Revolution, 165, 167, 184 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 12, 28, 30–33 International Energy Agency (IEA), 114–15, 139–40 International Monetary Fund (IMF), the, 49 iodine-131 (I131), 105 Iowa, 15–16, 24, 50, 154, 173 Iranian Revolution, 56 Iran, Iranians collapse of, 45 energy and, 58, 119, 151–52 food supply and, 68 heroin and, 45 nuclear weapons and, 3, 47, 86, 92–94, 97–102, 119, 122–23, 179–80 population of, 56–57 relationship with Iraq, 56 Iraq, Iraqis, 45, 54, 56, 58, 98 Ireland, 21, 39–40, 61–62, 68 Irish potato famine, 61 Iron Dome, 97 Islam, Islamic attacks against the West, 54, 73, 75, 107–8 and cultural development, 48, 72, 81–84, 99, 107–8 in the Middle East, 56, 72, 92 Islamists, 50–51, 55, 95, 99 Israel, Israelis attacks on (past and future), 86, 94, 96–97, 99–102, 120 economy of, 68, 81 grain and, 55–56, 68 nuclear weapons of, 96–97, 180 J J-10A fighters, 125–26, 129 J-10B fighters, 129 J-11B fighters, 129 J-20 aircraft, 120, 126, 129–34 J-31 aircraft, 120 Janatti, Ahmad, 99 Jarvis, M.


pages: 428 words: 121,717

Warnings by Richard A. Clarke

active measures, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anti-communist, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, Bernie Madoff, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, discovery of penicillin, double helix, Elon Musk, failed state, financial thriller, fixed income, Flash crash, forensic accounting, friendly AI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge worker, Maui Hawaii, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, mouse model, Nate Silver, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, Ponzi scheme, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart grid, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Y2K

These three glaciers, along with the rest of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, contain enough ice to raise the global sea level by 3.9 feet. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the world’s preeminent climate science organization. It is open to all member countries of the United Nations; currently 195 of them are members. Thousands of scientists have contributed to its work. They state, “By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the authority of their scientific content.” Therefore, their work is “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.” The IPCC has been publishing its climate-change assessments since 1990. The IPCC disagrees significantly with Hansen about both the rate at which and the level to which the water will rise. The IPCC’s most recent assessment was released in 2014. It projects an increase in global temperature at greater than 1°C, but less than about 4°C above preindustrial temperatures.

(Enthoven), 361 Hsu, Steve, 343 Huckabee, Mike, 384n Human embryo gene editing, 326, 340–41, 345 Huntington, Samuel, 36 Hurricane Andrew, 53 Hurricane Betsy, 46 Hurricane Katrina, 6, 39–55, 72 government failures, 50–55 levee system, 40, 41–42, 46, 49, 50, 53–54 making landfall, 39–40, 49 New Orleans Scenario and, 45, 46–50, 52 Hurricane Pam exercise, 40, 47–49 Hurricane Sandy, 252 Hussein, Saddam Allen’s warning of Gulf War, 19–20, 22–23, 26–30, 358 Iraq-Iran War, 22–24 WMD and, 31 Hussein of Jordan, 28 IBM, 202, 209 Idaho Falls exercise, 288–89 Ideological Response Rejection, 179–80 Impact events, 301–24 Chelyabinsk meteor, 309–10, 316 Chicxulub crater, 307–9 Tunguska event, 301–3, 316 “In-attentional blindness,” 175 India, 261–73 Cold Start doctrine, 264–65, 267, 270 Mumbai terrorist attacks of 2008, 261–64 nuclear weapons and Pakistan, 264–73, 281–82 partition of, 265–66 Indian Air Force, 264 Indian Army, 266–67 Indian Navy, 264 Indications and warning (I&W), 25–27, 359–60 Industrial Revolution, 175 Initial Occurrence Syndrome, 171–72 Ford and Syria, 72 Fukushima nuclear disaster, 97–98 Iraq-Kuwait case, 34–35 Morrison and asteroid threat, 318 van Heerden and levee failures, 52 Yudkowsky and AI, 215 Institutional reluctance, 140–42, 177–78, 320–21 Intelligence (IQ), 343 “Intelligence explosion,” 201–2, 205 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 246–50, 253, 254–55 International Arabian Horse Association, 54 International Herald-Tribune, 92 International Rice Research Institute, 193 International Summit on Human Gene Editing (2015), 345–46 Internet of Things (IoT), 292–300, 366 Invisible Obvious, 174–76, 234–35 In vitro fertilization (IVF), 343–44 Iran Iraq-Iran War, 22–24 nuclear program, 291–92 Syria and, 67, 73, 74 Iran-Contra scandal, 32 Iraq, 58, 63.

Kerr, “Hansen vs. the World on the Greenhouse Threat,” Science 244, no. 4908 (1989): 1041–43, at 1041. 10. “Global Temperature,” Vital Signs, NASA Global Climate Change, http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature (accessed Oct. 9, 2016). 11. Christopher B. Field, Vicente R. Barros, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability—Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 63. 12. “Adoption of the Paris Agreement,” Conference of the Parties, Twenty-First Session, Paris, Nov. 30–Dec. 11, 2015, (United Nations: Framework Convention on Climate Change), 4, 6. 13. Oliver Milman, “James Hansen, Father of Climate Change Awareness, Calls Paris Talks ‘a Fraud,’” Guardian, Dec. 12, 2015, sec.


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Slowdown: The End of the Great Acceleration―and Why It’s Good for the Planet, the Economy, and Our Lives by Danny Dorling, Kirsten McClure

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, clean water, creative destruction, credit crunch, Donald Trump, drone strike, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Flynn Effect, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Henri Poincaré, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Isaac Newton, James Dyson, jimmy wales, John Harrison: Longitude, Kickstarter, low earth orbit, Mark Zuckerberg, market clearing, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage debt, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, Ponzi scheme, price stability, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, QWERTY keyboard, random walk, rent control, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, sexual politics, Skype, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, structural adjustment programs, the built environment, Tim Cook: Apple, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, very high income, wealth creators, wikimedia commons, working poor

See also carbon emissions gross domestic product (GDP), 232–41; China, 239–41, 241; concept of, 232–33; global, per capita, 233–37, 234, 292, 293, 297; United States, 237–39, 238 Grosz, Stephen, 317 Guatemala, 209, 210 Haiti, 212, 213 Haque, Umair, 319 Harrison, John, 30 Hawking, Stephen, 144 height, average adult, 266–67, 268, 269, 283 Henriksson, Anna-Maja, 312 hierarchy, 152, 182, 264, 285–86, 363n50 High-Speed Society (Rosa and Scheuerman), 272–73, 360n28, 360n30 home-loan debt, 49–56, 54 Hong Kong, 154, 263 household appliances, 267, 269 housing: house prices, 247–51, 249, 253–55; mortgages, 49–56, 54; rental, 49–50, 53; social housing, 51, 56 Huygens, Christiaan, 30 Ibbitson, John, 140, 141, 296 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA), 153–54 immigration: and birth rates, 312; future scarcity of, 296; Japan and, 326; and population growth, 318; United Kingdom and, 165; United States and, 152, 153–54, 296, 318 income inequality, 24, 284, 294 India: automobile production, 115, 118; democracy in, 264–65; fertility rates, 226, 227; population, 3, 147, 165–68, 167, 171, 307–8 Indicators of Social Change (Sheldon and Moore), 313 Indonesia, 172, 173, 174 Industrial Revolution, 99, 230 Indus Valley Civilization, 264 inequalities: debt and the concentration of wealth, 37–38, 45–46, 56–58; and population slowdown, 7–8; redistribution imperative, 294–95; and slowdown, 319–22, 343n1; in United States, 152–53 infant mortality, 185, 217–18, 220 information. See data/information innovations. See discoveries and innovations intelligence, measured as IQ, 269–70, 272 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 119, 123, 136 International Labour Organisation (ILO), 294 International Monetary Fund, 160 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 299 Internet of Things, 87 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 119, 123, 136 IQ (intelligence measured as), 269–70, 272 Iran, 172, 173 Iraq, 172, 173 Ireland, 162, 163, 164, 165, 232 iron smelting, 90–91, 98–99 Istanbul, 323 Italy, 113, 114, 161, 173 Jackson, Tim, 242, 243 Japan: automobile production, 113–15, 118; as leader of slowdown, 326–30; marriage, 211; population, 5, 168–71, 169; rural migration, 22–24; Shimanto, 22–23; Tokyo ROXY index, 326–29, 328 Japan Times, 170, 330 Johnson, Boris, 312 Journal of the Society of Industrial Chemistry, 269 Kase, Mayu, 23 Kawashima Tatsuhiko, 326, 327 killer bees, 9–10 King, Clive, The 22 Letters, 78–79 Korea, Republic of: automobile production, 115, 118; fertility rates, 1, 220–22, 221, and early printing, 65–66 Krishnavedala, 34, 35 Kulmun, Katri, 312 Labour Party, 281 Lake Turkana, Kenya, 264 Lancet, 226 Larkin, Philip, 208 Lent, Jeremy, 265–66 Leonardo da Vinci, 77 life expectancy, 4, 320–22, 321, 339n5 Liles, Fred, 299, 301, 365n26 Lind, Dara, 154 Lindberg, Staffan, 276–77 Lindzen, Richard, 237 Living Plant Index (LPI), 299, 300 living standards, 242–47, 245 loans.

Global Carbon Project, Global Fossil CO2 Emissions, 1960–Projected 2018, accessed 4 September 2019, https://www.icos-cp.eu/sites/default/files/inline-images/s09_FossilFuel_and_Cement_emissions_1959.png. 17. ICOS, “Global Carbon Budget 2018.” 18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Preindustrial evels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty,” 8 October 2018, https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf. CHAPTER 6. Temperature Epigraph: Fiona Harvey, “Sharp Rise in Arctic Temperatures Now Inevitable—UN,” Guardian, 13 March 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/13/arctic-temperature-rises-must-be-urgently-tackled-warns-un, referring in turn to United Nations Environment Programme, “Temperature Rise Is Now ‘Locked-In’ for the Coming Decades in the Arctic,” http://www.grida.no/publications/431 (accessed 12 October 2019). 1.

Tekie Tesfamichael, Bonnie Jacobs, Neil Tabor, Lauren Michel, Ellen Currano, Mulugeta Feseha, Richard Barclay, John Kappelman, and Mark Schmitz, “Settling the Issue of ‘Decoupling’ between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature: Reconstructions across the Warming Paleogene-Neogene Divide,” Geology 45, no. 11 (2017): 999–1002, https://doi.org/10.1130/G39048.1. 3. IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-spm-1.pdf. 4. “Thermometer,” Science Museum, 2017, accessed 18 September 2019, http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/broughttolife/techniques/thermometer. 5.NASA explainsthat it uses “a lowess smooth, i.e. a non-parametric regression analysis that relies on a k-nearest-neighbor model.


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The Empathic Civilization: The Race to Global Consciousness in a World in Crisis by Jeremy Rifkin

agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, animal electricity, back-to-the-land, British Empire, carbon footprint, collaborative economy, death of newspapers, delayed gratification, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, feminist movement, global village, hedonic treadmill, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Mahatma Gandhi, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, Nelson Mandela, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, off grid, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, scientific worldview, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, social intelligence, supply-chain management, surplus humans, the medium is the message, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, transaction costs, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, working poor, World Values Survey

“Climate Change ‘Will Cause Refugee Crisis.’ ” Independent Online. October 20, 2006. 2 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policy Makers: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 2. 3 Ibid. p. 3. 4 Ibid. 5 Ibid. p. 5. 6 “Why Build Green? ” U.S. Building Council. 2008. 7 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Livestock’s Long Shadow—Environmental Issues and Options, 2006. p. 272. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/A0701E07.pdf 8 Ibid. 9 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. February 2 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. p. 12 www.ipcc.ch/ 10 Stainforth, D. A., T. Alna, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Fauli, D.

No. 27. 2005. 11 Bemstein, Lenny, et al. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf 12 Whitty, Julia. “By the End of the Century Half of All Species Will Be Gone. Who Will Survive?” Mother Jones 32. No. 3. p. 36-90. 13 Houghton, John. Global Warming: The Complete Briefi ng, 2nd ed. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997, p. 127. 14 Ibid. 15 Ibid. 16 Beardsley, Tim. “In the Heat of the Night.” Scientifi c American. Vol. 279. No. 4. October 1998. p. 20. 17 Ibid. 18 Pearce, Fred. “Violent Future.” New Scientist. July 21, 2001. p. 4. 19 Mayell, H. “UN Highlights World Water Crisis.” National Geographic News. June 5, 2003. 20 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Chapter 3: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 254. 21 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 376. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Chapter 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 655. 22 Schneeberger, C., H. Blatter, A. Abe-Ouchi, and M. Wild. “Modelling Changes in the Mass Balance of Glaciers of the Northern Hemisphere for a Transient 2×CO2 Scenario.”


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How Much Is Enough?: Money and the Good Life by Robert Skidelsky, Edward Skidelsky

"Robert Solow", banking crisis, basic income, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Bonfire of the Vanities, call centre, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, death of newspapers, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, market clearing, market fundamentalism, Paul Samuelson, profit motive, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, union organizing, University of East Anglia, Veblen good, wage slave, wealth creators, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

Our doubts concern the economic implications, not the science of global warming. That said, the science is not as settled as is often claimed. Climatology is a young field, in which much remains uncertain and disputed. It is also fiercely politicized, with powerful commercial and bureaucratic interests on either side of the debate. Not even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s chief assembly of climate scientists, is entirely above suspicion. “There remains a risk,” claims a 2005 House of Lords report on climate change, “that IPCC has become a ‘knowledge monopoly’ in some respects, unwilling to listen to those who do not pursue the consensus line.”7 Faced with this barrage of accusation and counter-accusation, the best we can do as non-scientists is to accept the majority view, which is that global warming is indeed mainly the result of human activity.

George Monbiot, “Bring on the Recession,” Guardian, October 9, 2007. 6. Tim Jackson, Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (London: Earthscan, 2009). 7. House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs, The Economics of Climate Change (London: MMSO, 2005), p. 58. 8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), Working Panel 1, Technical Summary, p. 79. 9. K. R. Popper, The Poverty of Historicism (London: Routledge, 1961), pp. v–vi. 10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Working Panel 2, ch. 3, p. 154. 11. Quoted in Mike Hulme, “Chaotic world of climate truth,” 2006, BBC News website, 2006, news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6115644.stm (accessed November 9, 2011). news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6115644.stm (accessed September 9, 2011). 12.

Both assumptions are questionable. Let us take them in turn. Forecasting is a hazardous business, especially in fields as complex and ill-understood as this. That does not prevent people trying though. The IPCC has been putting out estimates of the costs of global warming since 1990. These estimates are generated on powerful computers and stretch decades into the future. They radiate technocratic authority. But how much can they really tell us? The IPCC’s models are based on long-term projections not only of climate but of population, economic growth and technological change, all highly uncertain. Compound these uncertainties, and you have what the IPCC itself calls a “cascade of uncertainty.”8 This seems a weak basis on which to adopt measures that will certainly have a drastic effect on our standard of living. Technology is central to estimating the costs of global warming, because it determines how well we can respond to the flooding, drought and disease forecast to follow in its wake.


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Prosperity Without Growth: Foundations for the Economy of Tomorrow by Tim Jackson

"Robert Solow", bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Basel III, basic income, bonus culture, Boris Johnson, business cycle, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, collapse of Lehman Brothers, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, David Graeber, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, financial deregulation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial intermediation, full employment, Growth in a Time of Debt, Hans Rosling, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invisible hand, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, laissez-faire capitalism, liberal capitalism, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Naomi Klein, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open economy, paradox of thrift, peak oil, peer-to-peer lending, Philip Mirowski, profit motive, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, Richard Thaler, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, science of happiness, secular stagnation, short selling, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, universal basic income, Works Progress Administration, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

INDEX Locators in italic refer to figures absolute decoupling 84–6; historical perspectives 89–96, 90, 92, 94, 95; mathematical relationship with relative decoupling 96–101, 111 abundance see opulence accounting errors, decoupling 84, 91 acquisition, instinctive 68 see also symbolic role of goods adaptation: diminishing marginal utility 51, 68; environmental 169; evolutionary 226 advertising, power of 140, 203–4 Africa 73, 75–7; life-expectancy 74; philosophy 227; pursuit of western lifestyles 70; growth 99; relative income effect 58, 75; schooling 78 The Age of Turbulence (Greenspan) 35 ageing populations 44, 81 agriculture 12, 148, 152, 220 Aids/HIV 77 algebra of inequality see inequality; mathematical models alienation: future visions 212, 218–19; geographical community 122–3; role of the state 205; selfishness vs. altruism 137; signals sent by society 131 alternatives: economic 101–2, 139–40, 157–8; hedonism 125–6 see also future visions; post-growth macroeconomics; reform altruism 133–8, 196, 207 amenities see public services/amenities Amish community, North America 128 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (Smith) 123, 132 angelised growth see green growth animal welfare 220 anonymity/loneliness see alienation anthropological perspectives, consumption 70, 115 anti-consumerism 131 see also intrinsic values anxiety: fear of death 69, 104, 115, 212–15; novelty 116–17, 124, 211 Argentina 58, 78, 78, 80 Aristotle 48, 61 The Art of Happiness (Dalai Lama) 49 arts, Baumol’s cost disease 171–2 assets, stranded 167–8 see also ownership austerity policies xxxiii–xxxv, 189; and financial crisis 24, 42–3; mathematical models 181 Australia 58, 78, 128, 206 authoritarianism 199 autonomy see freedom/autonomy Ayres, Robert 143 backfire effects 111 balance: private interests/common good 208; tradition/innovation 226 Bank for International Settlements 46 bank runs 157 banking system 29–30, 39, 153–7, 208; bonuses 37–8 see also financial crisis; financial system basic entitlements: enterprise as service 142; income 67, 72–9, 74, 75, 76, 78; limits to growth 63–4 see also education; food; health Basu, Sanjay 43 Baumol, William 112, 147, 222, 223; cost disease 170, 171, 172, 173 BBC survey, geographical community 122–3 Becker, Ernest 69 Belk, Russ 70, 114 belonging 212, 219 see also alienation; community; intrinsic values Bentham, Jeremy 55 bereavement, material possessions 114, 214–15 Berger, Peter 70, 214 Berry, Wendell 8 Better Growth, Better Climate (New Climate Economy report) 18 big business/corporations 106–7 biodiversity loss 17, 47, 62, 101 biological perspectives see evolutionary theory; human nature/psyche biophysical boundaries see limits (ecological) Black Monday 46 The Body Economic (Stuckler and Basu) 43 bond markets 30, 157 bonuses, banking 37–8 Bookchin, Murray 122 boom-and-bust cycles 157, 181 Booth, Douglas 117 borrowing behaviour 34, 118–21, 119 see also credit; debt Boulding, Elise 118 Boulding, Kenneth 1, 5, 7 boundaries, biophysical see limits (ecological) bounded capabilities for flourishing 61–5 see also limits (flourishing within) Bowen, William 147 Bowling Alone (Putnam) 122 Brazil 58, 88 breakdown of community see alienation; social stability bubbles, economic 29, 33, 36 Buddhist monasteries, Thailand 128 buen vivir concept, Ecuador xxxi, 6 built-in obsolescence 113, 204, 220 Bush, George 121 business-as-usual model 22, 211; carbon dioxide emissions 101; crisis of commitment 195; financial crisis 32–8; growth 79–83, 99; human nature 131, 136–7; need for reform 55, 57, 59, 101–2, 162, 207–8, 227; throwaway society 113; wellbeing 124 see also financial systems Canada 75, 206, 207 capabilities for flourishing 61–5; circular flow of the economy 113; future visions 218, 219; and income 77; progress measures 50–5, 54; role of material abundance 67–72; and prosperity 49; relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72; role of shame 123–4; role of the state 200 see also limits (flourishing within); wellbeing capital 105, 107–10 see also investment Capital in the 21st Century (Piketty) 33, 176, 177 Capital Institute, USA 155 capitalism 68–9, 80; structures 107–13, 175; types 105–7, 222, 223 car industry, financial crisis 40 carbon dioxide emissions see greenhouse gas emissions caring professions, valuing 130, 147, 207 see also social care Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (Williams) 213 causal path analysis, subjective wellbeing 59 Central Bank 154 central human capabilities 64 see also capabilities for flourishing The Challenge of Affluence (Offer) 194 change see alternatives; future visions; novelty/innovation; post-growth macroeconomics; reform Chicago school of economics 36, 156 children: advertising to 204; labour 62, 154; mortality 74–5, 75, 206 Chile xxxiii, xxxvii, 58, 74, 74, 75, 76 China: decoupling 88; GDP per capita 75; greenhouse gas emissions 91; growth 99; life expectancy 74; philosophy 7; post-financial crisis 45–6; pursuit of western lifestyles 70; relative income effect 58; resource use 94; savings 27; schooling 76 choice, moving beyond consumerism 216–18 see also freedom/autonomy Christian doctrine see religious perspectives chromium, commodity price 13 Cinderella economy 219–21, 224 circular economy 144, 220 circular flow of the economy 107, 113 see also engine of growth citizen’s income 207 see also universal basic income civil unrest see social stability Clean City Law, São Paulo 204 climate change xxxv, 22, 47; critical boundaries 17–20; decoupling 85, 86, 87, 98; fatalism 186; investment needs 152; role of the state 192, 198, 201–2 see also greenhouse gas emissions Climate Change Act (2008), UK 198 clothing see basic entitlements Club of Rome, Limits to Growth report xxxii, xxxiii, 8, 11–16, Cobb, John 54 collectivism 191 commercial bond markets 30, 157 commitment devices/crisis of 192–5, 197 commodity prices: decoupling 88; financial crisis 26; fluctuation/volatility 14, 21; resource constraints 13–14 common good: future visions 218, 219; vs. freedom and autonomy 193–4; vs. private interests 208; role of the state 209 common pool resources 190–2, 198, 199 see also public services/amenities communism 187, 191 community: future visions of 219–20; geographical 122–3; investment 155–6, 204 see also alienation; intrinsic values comparison, social 115, 116, 117 see also relative income effect competition 27, 112; positional 55–61, 58, 71, 72 see also struggle for existence complexity, economic systems 14, 32, 108, 153, 203 compulsive shopping 116 see also consumerism Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (CoP21) 19 conflicted state 197, 201, 209 connectedness, global 91, 227 conspicuous consumption 115 see also language of goods consumer goods see language of goods; material goods consumer sovereignty 196, 198 consumerism 4, 21, 22, 103–4, 113–16; capitalism 105–13, 196; choice 196; engine of growth 104, 108, 120, 161; existential fear of death 69, 212–15; financial crisis 24, 28, 39, 103; moving beyond 216–18; novelty and anxiety 116–17; post-growth economy 166–7; role of the state 192–3, 196, 199, 202–5; status 211; tragedy of 140 see also demand; materialism contemplative dimensions, simplicity 127 contraction and convergence model 206–7 coordinated market economies 27, 106 Copenhagen Accord (2009) 19 copper, commodity prices 13 corporations/big business 106–7 corruption 9, 131, 186, 187, 189 The Cost Disease: Why Computers get Cheaper and Health Care Doesn’t (Baumol) 171, 172 Costa Rica 74, 74, 76 countercyclical spending 181–2, 182, 188 crafts/craft economies 147, 149, 170, 171 creative destruction 104, 112, 113, 116–17 creativity 8, 79; and consumerism 113, 116; future visions 142, 144, 147, 158, 171, 200, 220 see also novelty/innovation credit, private: deflationary forces 44; deregulation 36; financial crisis 26, 27, 27–31, 34, 36, 41; financial system weaknesses 32–3, 37; growth imperative hypothesis 178–80; mortgage loans 28–9; reforms in financial system 157; spending vs. saving behaviour of ordinary people 118–19; and stimulation of growth 36 see also debt (public) credit unions 155–6 crises: of commitment 192–5; financial see financial crisis critical boundaries, biophysical see limits (ecological) Csikszentmihalyi, Mihalyi 127 Cuba: child mortality 75; life expectancy 74, 77, 78, 78; response to economic hardship 79–80; revolution 56; schooling 76 Cushman, Philip 116 Dalai Lama 49, 52 Daly, Herman xxxii, 54, 55, 160, 163, 165 Darwin, Charles 132–3 Das Kapital (Marx) 225 Davidson, Richard 49 Davos World Economic Forum 46 Dawkins, Richard 134–5 de Mandeville, Bernard 131–2, 157 death, denial of 69, 104, 115, 212–15 debt, public-sector 81; deflationary forces 44; economic stability 81; financial crisis 24, 26–32, 27, 37, 41, 42, 81; financial systems 28–32, 153–7; money creation 178–9; post-growth economy 178–9, 223 Debt: The First Five Thousand Years (Graeber) 28 decoupling xix, xx, xxxvii, 21, 84–7; dilemma of growth 211; efficiency measures 84, 86, 87, 88, 95, 104; green growth 163, 163–5; historical perspectives 87–96, 89, 90, 92, 94, 95; need for new economic model 101–2; relationship between relative and absolute 96–101 deep emission and resource cuts 99, 102 deficit spending 41, 43 deflationary forces, post-financial crisis 43–7, 45 degrowth movement 161–3, 177 demand 104, 113–16, 166–7; post-financial crisis 44–5; post-growth economy 162, 164, 166–9, 171–2, 174–5 dematerialisation 102, 143 democratisation, and wellbeing 59 deposit guarantees 35 deregulation 27, 34, 36, 196 desire, role in consumer behaviour 68, 69, 70, 114 destructive materialism 104, 112, 113, 116–17 Deutsche Bank 41 devaluation of currency 30, 45 Dichter, Ernest 114 digital economy 44, 219–20 dilemma of growth xxxi, 66–7, 104, 210; basic entitlements 72–9, 74, 75, 76, 78; decoupling 85, 87, 164; degrowth movement 160–3; economic stability 79–83, 174–6; material abundance 67–72; moving beyond 165, 166, 183–4; role of the state 198 diminishing marginal utility: alternative hedonism 125, 126; wellbeing 51–2, 57, 60, 73, 75–6, 79 disposable incomes 27, 67, 118 distributed ownership 223 Dittmar, Helga 126 domestic debt see credit dopamine 68 Dordogne, mindfulness community 128 double movement of society 198 Douglas, Mary 70 Douthwaite, Richard 178 downshifting 128 driving analogy, managing change 16–17 durability, consumer goods 113, 204, 220 dynamic systems, managing change 16–17 Eastern Europe 76, 122 Easterlin, Richard 56, 57, 59; paradox 56, 58 eco-villages, Findhorn community 128 ecological investment 101, 166–70, 220 see also investment ecological limits see limits (ecological) ecological (ecosystem) services 152, 169, 223 The Ecology of Money (Douthwaite) 178 economic growth see growth economic models see alternatives; business-as-usual model; financial systems; future visions; mathematical models; post-growth macroeconomics economic output see efficiency; productivity ‘Economic possibilities for our grandchildren’ (Keynes) 145 economic stability 22, 154, 157, 161; financial system weaknesses 34, 35, 36, 180; growth 21, 24, 67, 79–83, 174–6, 210; post-growth economy 161–3, 165, 174–6, 208, 219; role of the state 181–3, 195, 198, 199 economic structures: post-growth economy 227; financial system reforms 224; role of the state 205; selfishness 137 see also business-as-usual model; financial systems ecosystem functioning 62–3 see also limits (ecological) ecosystem services 152, 169, 223 Ecuador xxxi, 6 education: Baumol’s cost disease 171, 172; and income 67, 76, 76; investment in 150–1; role of the state 193 see also basic entitlements efficiency measures 84, 86–8, 95, 104, 109–11, 142–3; energy 41, 109–11; growth 111, 211; investment 109, 151; of scale 104 see also labour productivity; relative decoupling Ehrlich, Paul 13, 96 elasticity of substitution, labour and capital 177–8 electricity grid 41, 151, 156 see also energy Elgin, Duane 127 Ellen MacArthur Foundation 144 emissions see greenhouse gas emissions employee ownership 223 employment intensity vs. carbon dioxide emissions 148 see also labour productivity empty self 116, 117 see also consumerism ends above means 159 energy return on investment (EROI) 12, 169 energy services/systems 142: efficiency 41, 109–11; inputs/intensity 87–8, 151; investment 41, 109–10, 151–2; renewable xxxv, 41, 168–9 engine of growth 145; consumerism 104, 108, 161; services 143, 170–4 see also circular flow of the economy enough is enough see limits enterprise as service 140, 141–4, 158 see also novelty/innovation entitlements see basic entitlements entrepreneur as visionary 112 entrepreneurial state 220 Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands 62 environmental quality 12 see also pollution environmentalism 9 EROI (energy return on investment) 12, 169 Essay on the Principle of Population (Malthus) 9–11, 132–3 evolutionary map, human heart 136, 136 evolutionary theory 132–3; common good 193; post-growth economy 226; psychology 133–5; selfishness and altruism 196 exchange values 55, 61 see also gross domestic product existential fear of death 69, 104, 115, 212–15 exponential expansion 1, 11, 20–1, 210 see also growth external debt 32, 42 extinctions/biodiversity loss 17, 47, 62, 101 Eyres, Harry 215 Fable of the Bees (de Mandeville) 131–2 factor inputs 109–10 see also capital; labour; resource use fast food 128 fatalism 186 FCCC (Framework Convention on Climate Change) 92 fear of death, existential 69, 104, 115, 212–15 feedback loops 16–17 financial crisis (2008) 6, 23–5, 32, 77, 103; causes and culpability 25–8; financial system weaknesses 32–7, 108; Keynesianism 37–43, 188; nationalisation of financial sector 188; need for financial reforms 175; role of debt 24, 26–32, 27, 81, 179; role of state 191; slowing of growth 43–7, 45; spending vs. saving behaviour of ordinary people 118–21, 119; types/definitions of capitalism 106; youth unemployment 144–5 financial systems: common pool resources 192; debt-based/role of debt 28–32, 153–7; post-growth economy 179, 208; systemic weaknesses 32–7; and wellbeing 47 see also banking system; business-as-usual model; financial crisis; reform Findhorn community 128 finite limits of planet see limits (ecological) Fisher, Irving 156, 157 fishing rights 22 flourishing see capabilities for flourishing; limits; wellbeing flow states 127 Flynt, Larry 40 food 67 see also basic entitlements Ford, Henry 154 forestry/forests 22, 192 Forrester, Jay 11 fossil fuels 11, 20 see also oil Foucault, Michel 197 fracking 14, 15 Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) 92 France: GDP per capita 58, 75, 76; inequality 206; life-expectancy 74; mindfulness community 128; working hours 145 free market 106: financial crisis 35, 36, 37, 38, 39; ideological controversy/conflict 186–7, 188 freedom/autonomy: vs. common good 193–4; consumer 22, 68–9; language of goods 212; personal choices for improvement 216–18; wellbeing 49, 59, 62 see also individualism Friedman, Benjamin 176 Friedman, Milton 36, 156, 157 frugality 118–20, 127–9, 215–16 fun (more fun with less stuff) 129, 217 future visions 2, 158, 217–21; community banking 155–6; dilemma of growth 211; enterprise as service 140, 141–4, 147–8, 158; entrepreneur as visionary 112; financial crisis as opportunity 25; and growth 165–6; investment 22, 101–2, 140, 149–53, 158, 169, 208; money as social good 140, 153–7, 158; processes of change 185; role of the state 198, 199, 203; timescales for change 16–17; work as participation 140, 144–9, 148, 158 see also alternatives; post-growth macroeconomics; reform Gandhi, Mahatma 127 GDP see gross domestic product gene, selfish 134–5 Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) 54, 54 geographical community 122–3 Germany xxxi; Federal Ministry of Finance 224–5; inequality 206; relative income effect 58; trade balance 31; work as participation 146 Glass Steagal Act 35 Global Commodity Price Index (1992–2015) 13 global corporations 106–7 global economy 98: culture 70; decoupling 86–8, 91, 93–5, 95, 97, 98, 100; exponential expansion 20–1; inequality 4, 5–6; interconnectedness 91, 227; post-financial crisis slowing of growth 45 Global Research report (HSBC) 41 global warming see climate change Godley, Wynne 179 Goldman Sachs 37 good life 3, 6; moral dimension 63, 104; wellbeing 48, 50 goods see language of goods; material goods; symbolic role of goods Gordon, Robert 44 governance 22, 185–6; commons 190–2; crisis of commitment 192–5, 197; economic stability 34, 35; establishing limits 200–8, 206; growth 195–9; ideological controversy/conflict 186–9; moving towards change 197–200, 220–1; post-growth economy 181–3, 182; power of corporations 106; for prosperity 209; signals 130 government as household metaphor 30, 42 governmentality 197, 198 GPI (Genuine Progress Indicator) 54, 54 Graeber, David 28 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act 35 Great Depression 39–40 Greece: austerity xxxiii–xxxiv, xxxvii, 43; energy inputs 88; financial crisis 28, 30, 31, 77; life expectancy 74; schooling 76; relative income effect 58; youth unemployment 144 Green Economy initiative 41 green: growth xxxvii, 18, 85, 153, 166, 170; investment 41 Green New Deal, UNEP 40–1, 152, 188 greenhouse gas emissions 18, 85, 86, 91, 92; absolute decoupling 89–92, 90, 92, 98–101, 100; dilemma of growth 210–11; vs. employment intensity 148; future visions 142, 151, 201–2, 220; Kyoto Protocol 18, 90; reduction targets 19–20; relative decoupling 87, 88, 89, 93, 98–101, 100 see also climate change Greenspan, Alan 35 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita 3–5, 15, 54; climate change 18; decoupling 85, 93, 94; financial crisis 27, 28, 32; green growth 163–5; life expectancy 74, 75, 78; as measure of prosperity 3–4, 5, 53–5, 54, 60–1; post-financial crisis 43, 44; post-growth economy 207; schooling 76; wellbeing 55–61, 58 see also income growth xxxvii; capitalism 105; credit 36, 178–80; decoupling 85, 96–101; economic stability 21, 24, 67, 80, 210; financial crisis 37, 38; future visions 209, 223, 224; inequality 177; labour productivity 111; moving beyond 165, 166; novelty 112; ownership 105; post-financial crisis slowing 43–7, 45; prosperity as 3–7, 23, 66; role of the state 195–9; sustainable investment 166–70; wellbeing 59–60; as zero sum game 57 see also dilemma of growth; engine of growth; green growth; limits to growth; post-growth macroeconomy growth imperative hypothesis 37, 174, 175, 177–80, 183 habit formation, acquisition as 68 Hall, Peter 106, 188 Hamilton, William 134 Hansen, James 17 happiness see wellbeing/happiness Happiness (Layard) 55 Hardin, Garrett 190–1 Harvey, David 189, 192 Hayek, Friedrich 187, 189, 191 health: Baumol’s cost disease 171, 172; inequality 72–3, 205–6, 206; investment 150–1; and material abundance 67, 68; personal choices for improvement 217; response to economic hardship 80; role of the state 193 see also basic entitlements Heath, Edward 66, 82 hedonism 120, 137, 196; alternatives 125–6 Hirsch, Fred xxxii–xxxiii historical perspectives: absolute decoupling 86, 89–96, 90, 92, 94, 95; relative decoupling 86, 87–9, 89 Holdren, John 96 holistic solutions, post-growth economy 175 household finances: house purchases 28–9; spending vs. saving behaviour 118–20, 119 see also credit household metaphor, government as 30, 42 HSBC Global Research report 41 human capabilities see capabilities for flourishing human happiness see wellbeing/happiness human nature/psyche 3, 132–5, 138; acquisition 68; alternative hedonism 125; evolutionary map of human heart 136, 136; intrinsic values 131; meaning/purpose 49–50; novelty/innovation 116; selfishness vs. altruism 133–8; short-termism/living for today 194; spending vs. saving behaviour 34, 118–21, 119; symbolic role of goods 69 see also intrinsic values human rights see basic entitlements humanitarian perspectives: financial crisis 24; growth 79; inequality 5, 52, 53 see also intrinsic values hyperbolic discounting 194 hyperindividualism 226 see also individualism hyper-materialisation 140, 157 I Ching (Chinese Book of Changes) 7 Iceland: financial crisis 28; life expectancy 74, 75; relative income effect 56; response to economic hardship 79–80; schooling 76; sovereign money system 157 identity construction 52, 69, 115, 116, 212, 219 IEA (International Energy Agency) 14, 152 IMF (International Monetary Fund) 45, 156–7 immaterial goods 139–40 see also intrinsic values; meaning/purpose immortality, symbolic role of goods 69, 104, 115, 212–14 inclusive growth see inequality; smart growth income 3, 4, 5, 66, 124; basic entitlements 72–9, 74, 75, 76, 78; child mortality 74–5, 75; decoupling 96; economic stability 82; education 76; life expectancy 72, 73, 74, 77–9, 78; poor nations 67; relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72; tax revenues 81 see also gross domestic product INDCs (intended nationally determined commitments) 19 India: decoupling 99; growth 99; life expectancy 74, 75; philosophy 127; pursuit of western lifestyles 70; savings 27; schooling 76 indicators of environmental quality 96 see also biodiversity; greenhouse gas emissions; pollution; resource use individualism 136, 226; progressive state 194–7, 199, 200, 203, 207 see also freedom/autonomy industrial development 12 see also technological advances inequality 22, 67; basic entitlements 72; child mortality 75, 75; credible alternatives 219, 224; deflationary forces 44; fatalism 186; financial crisis 24; global 4, 5–6, 99, 100; financial system weaknesses 32–3; post-growth economy 174, 176–8; role of the state 198, 205–7, 206; selfishness vs. altruism 137; symbolic role of goods 71; wellbeing 47, 104 see also poverty infant mortality rates 72, 75 inflation 26, 30, 110, 157, 167 infrastructure, civic 150–1 Inglehart, Ronald 58, 59 innovation see novelty/innovation; technological advances inputs 80–1 see also capital; labour productivity; resource use Inside Job documentary film 26 instant gratification 50, 61 instinctive acquisition 68 Institute for Fiscal Studies 81 Institute for Local Self-Reliance 204 institutional structures 130 see also economic structures; governance intended nationally determined commitments (INDCs) 19 intensity factor, technological 96, 97 see also technological advances intentional communities 127–9 interconnectedness, global 91, 227 interest payments/rates 39, 43, 110; financial crisis 29, 30, 33, 39; post-growth economy 178–80 see also credit; debt Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 18, 19, 201–2 International Energy Agency (IEA) 14, 152 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 45, 156–7 intrinsic values 126–31, 135–6, 212; role of the state 199, 200 see also belonging; community; meaning/purpose; simplicity/frugality investment 107–10, 108; ecological/sustainable 101, 152, 153, 166–70, 220; and innovation 112; loans 29; future visions 22, 101–2, 140, 149–53, 158, 169, 208, 220; and savings 108; social 155, 156, 189, 193, 208, 220–3 invisible hand metaphor 132, 133, 187 IPAT equation, relative and absolute decoupling 96 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 18, 19, 201–2 Ireland 28; inequality 206; life expectancy 74, 75; schooling 76; wellbeing 58 iron cage of consumerism see consumerism iron ore 94 James, Oliver 205 James, William 68 Japan: equality 206; financial crisis 27, 45; life expectancy 74, 76, 79; relative income effect 56, 58; resource use 93; response to economic hardship 79–80 Jefferson, Thomas 185 Jobs, Steve 210 Johnson, Boris 120–1 Kahneman, Daniel 60 Kasser, Tim 126 keeping up with the Joneses 115, 116, 117 see also relative income effect Kennedy, Robert 48, 53 Keynes, John Maynard/Keynesianism 23, 34, 120, 174, 181–3, 187–8; financial crisis 37–43; financial system reforms 157; part-time working 145; steady state economy 159, 162 King, Alexander 11 Krugman, Paul 39, 85, 86, 102 Kyoto Protocol (1992) 18, 90 labour: child 62, 154; costs 110; division of 158; elasticity of substitution 177, 178; intensity 109, 148, 208; mobility 123; production inputs 80, 109; structures of capitalism 107 labour productivity 80–1, 109–11; Baumol’s cost disease 170–2; and economic growth 111; future visions 220, 224; investment as commitment 150; need for investment 109; post-growth economy 175, 208; services as engine of growth 170; sustainable investment 166, 170; trade off with resource use 110; work-sharing 145, 146, 147, 148, 148, 149 Lahr, Christin 224–5 laissez-faire capitalism 187, 195, 196 see also free market Lakoff, George 30 language of goods 212; material footprint of 139–40; signalling of social status 71; and wellbeing 124 see also consumerism; material goods; symbolic role of goods Layard, Richard 55 leadership, political 199 see also governance Lebow, Victor 120 Lehman Brothers, bankruptcy 23, 25, 26, 118 leisure economy 204 liberal market economies 106, 107; financial crisis 27, 35–6 life expectancy: and income 72, 73, 74, 77–9, 78; inequality 206; response to economic hardship 80 see also basic entitlements life-satisfaction 73; inequality 205; relative income effect 55–61, 58 see also wellbeing/happiness limits, ecological 3, 4, 7, 11, 12, 20–2; climate change 17–20; decoupling 86; financial crisis 23–4; growth 21, 165, 210; post-growth economy 201–2, 226–7; role of the state 198, 200–2, 206–7; and social boundaries 141; wellbeing 62–63, 185 limits, flourishing within 61–5, 185; alternative hedonism 125–6; intrinsic values 127–31; moving towards 215, 218, 219, 221; paradox of materialism 121–23; prosperity 67–72, 113, 212; role of the state 201–2, 205; selfishness 131–8; shame 123–4; spending vs. saving behaviour 118–21, 119 see also sustainable prosperity limits to growth: confronting 7–8; exceeding 20–2; wellbeing 62–3 Limits to Growth report (Club of Rome) xxxii, xxxiii, 8, 11–16 ‘The Living Standard’ essay (Sen) 50, 123–4 living standards 82 see also prosperity Lloyd, William Forster 190 loans 154; community investment 155–6; financial system weaknesses 34 see also credit; debt London School of Economics 25 loneliness 123, 137 see also alienation long-term: investments 222; social good 219 long-term wellbeing vs. short-term pleasures 194, 197 longevity see life expectancy love 212 see also intrinsic values low-carbon transition 19, 220 LowGrow model for the Canadian economy 175 MacArthur Foundation 144 McCracken, Grant 115 Malthus, Thomas Robert 9–11, 132–3, 190 market economies: coordinated 27, 106; liberal 27, 35–6, 106, 107 market liberalism 106, 107; financial crisis 27, 35–6; wellbeing 47 marketing 140, 203–4 Marmot review, health inequality in the UK 72 Marx, Karl/Marxism 9, 189, 192, 225 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 11, 12, 15 material abundance see opulence material goods 68–9; identity 52; language of 139–40; and wellbeing 47, 48, 49, 51, 65, 126 see also symbolic role of goods material inputs see resource use materialism: and fear of death 69, 104, 115, 212–15; and intrinsic values 127–31; paradox of 121–3; price of 126; and religion 115; values 126, 135–6 see also consumerism mathematical models/simulations 132; austerity policies 181; countercyclical spending 181–2, 182; decoupling 84, 91, 96–101; inequality 176–8; post-growth economy 164; stock-flow consistent 179–80 Mawdsley, Emma 70 Mazzucato, Mariana 193, 220 MDG (Millennium Development Goals) 74–5 Meadows, Dennis and Donella 11, 12, 15, 16 meaning/purpose 2, 8, 22; beyond material goods 212–16; consumerism 69, 203, 215; intrinsic values 127–31; moving towards 218–20; wellbeing 49, 52, 60, 121–2; work 144, 146 see also intrinsic values means and ends 159 mental health: inequality 206; meaning/purpose 213 metaphors: government as household 30, 42; invisible hand 132, 133, 187 Middle East, energy inputs 88 Miliband, Ed 199 Mill, John Stuart 125, 159, 160, 174 Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 74–5 mindfulness 128 Minsky, Hyman 34, 35, 40, 182, 208 MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) 11, 12, 15 mixed economies 106 mobility of labour, loneliness index 123 Monbiot, George 84, 85, 86, 91 money: creation 154, 157, 178–9; and prosperity 5; as social good 140, 153–7, 158 see also financial systems monopoly power, corporations 106–7 The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth (Friedman) 82, 176 moral dimensions, good life 63 see also intrinsic values moral hazards, separation of risk from reward 35 ‘more fun with less stuff’ 129, 217 mortality fears 69, 104, 115, 212–15 mortality rates, and income 74, 74–6, 75 mortgage loans 28–9, 35 multinational corporations 106–7 national debt see debt, public-sector nationalisation 191; financial crisis 38, 188 natural selection 132–3 see also struggle for existence nature, rights of 6–7 negative emissions 98–9 negative feedback loops 16–17 Netherlands 58, 62, 206, 207 neuroscientific perspectives: flourishing 68, 69; human behaviour 134 New Climate Economy report Better Growth, Better Climate 18 New Deal, USA 39 New Economics Foundation 175 nickel, commodity prices 13 9/11 terrorist attacks (2001) 121 Nordhaus, William 171, 172–3 North America 128, 155 see also Canada; United States Norway: advertising 204; inequality 206; investment as commitment 151–2; life expectancy 74; relative income effect 58; schooling 76 novelty/innovation 104, 108, 113; and anxiety 116–17, 124, 211; crisis of commitment 195; dilemma of growth 211; human psyche 135–6, 136, 137; investment 150, 166, 168; post-growth economy 226; role of the state 196, 197, 199; as service 140, 141–4, 158; symbolic role of goods 114–16, 213 see also technological advances Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (Thaler and Sunstein) 194–5 Nussbaum, Martha 64 nutrient loading, critical boundaries 17 nutrition 67 see also basic entitlements obesity 72, 78, 206 obsolescence, built in 113, 204, 220 oceans: acidification 17; common pool resources 192 Offer, Avner 57, 61, 71, 194, 195 oil prices 14, 21; decoupling 88; financial crisis 26; resource constraints 15 oligarchic capitalism 106, 107 opulence 50–1, 52, 67–72 original sin 9, 131 Ostrom, Elinor and Vincent 190, 191 output see efficiency; gross domestic product; productivity ownership: and expansion 105; private vs. public 9, 105, 191, 219, 223; new models 223–4; types/definitions of capitalism 105–7 Oxfam 141 paradoxes: materialism 121–3; thrift 120 Paris Agreement 19, 101, 201 participation in society 61, 114, 122, 129, 137; future visions 200, 205, 218, 219, 225; work as 140–9, 148, 157, 158 see also social inclusion part-time working 145, 146, 149, 175 Peccei, Aurelio 11 Perez, Carlota 112 performing arts, Baumol’s cost disease 171–2 personal choice 216–18 see also freedom/autonomy personal property 189, 191 Pickett, Kate 71, 205–6 Piketty, Thomas 33, 176, 177 planetary boundaries see limits (ecological) planning for change 17 pleasure 60–1 see also wellbeing/happiness Plum Village mindfulness community 128 Polanyi, Karl 198 policy see governance political leadership 199 see also governance Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts 41 pollution 12, 21, 53, 95–6, 143 polycentric governance 191, 192 Poor Laws 10 poor nations see poverty population increase 3, 12, 63, 96, 97, 190; Malthus on 9–11, 132–3 porn industry 40 Portugal 28, 58, 88, 206 positional competition 55–61, 58, 71, 72 see also social comparison positive feedback loops 16–17 post-growth capitalism 224 post-growth macroeconomics 159–60, 183–4, 221; credit 178–80; degrowth movement 161–3; economic stability 174–6; green growth 163–5; inequality 176–8; role of state 181–3, 182, 200–8, 206; services 170–4; sustainable investment 166–70 see also alternatives; future visions; reform poverty 4, 5–6, 216; basic entitlements 72; flourishing within limits 212; life expectancy 74, 74; need for new economic model 101; symbolic role of goods 70; wellbeing 48, 59–60, 61, 67 see also inequality; relative income effect power politics 200 predator–prey analogy 103–4, 117 private credit see credit private vs. public: common good 208; ownership 9, 105, 191, 219, 223; salaries 130 privatisation 191, 219 product lifetimes, obsolescence 113, 204, 220 production: inputs 80–1; ownership 191, 219, 223 productivity: investment 109, 167, 168, 169; post-growth economy 224; services as engine of growth 171, 172, 173; targets 147; trap 175 see also efficiency measures; labour productivity; resource productivity profits: definitions of capitalism 105; dilemma of growth 211; efficiency measures 87; investment 109; motive 104; post-growth economy 224; and wages 175–8 progress 2, 50–5, 54 see also novelty/innovation; technological advances progressive sector, Baumol’s cost disease 171 progressive state 185, 220–2; contested 186–9; countering consumerism 202–5; equality measures 205–7, 206; governance of the commons 190–2; governance as commitment device 192–5; governmentality of growth 195–7; limit-setting 201–2; moving towards 197–200; post-growth macroeconomics 207–8, 224; prosperity 209 prosocial behaviour 198 see also social contract prosperity 1–3, 22, 121; capabilities for flourishing 61–5; and growth 3–7, 23, 66, 80, 160; and income 3–4, 5, 66–7; limits of 67–72, 113, 212; materialistic vision 137; progress measures 50–5, 54; relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72; social perspectives 2, 22, 48–9; state roles 209 see also capabilities for flourishing; post-growth macroeconomics; sustainable prosperity; wellbeing prudence, financial 120, 195, 221; financial crisis 33, 34, 35 public sector spending: austerity policies 189; countercyclical spending strategy 181–2, 182; welfare economy 169 public services/amenities: common pool resources 190–2, 198, 199; future visions 204, 218–20; investment 155–6, 204; ownership 223 see also private vs. public; service-based economies public transport 41, 129, 193, 217 purpose see meaning/purpose Putnam, Robert 122 psyche, human see human nature/psyche quality, environmental 12 see also pollution quality of life: enterprise as service 142; inequality 206; sustainable 128 quality to throughput ratios 113 quantitative easing 43 Queen Elizabeth II 25, 32, 34, 37 quiet revolution 127–31 Raworth, Kate 141 Reagan, Ronald 8 rebound phenomenon 111 recession 23–4, 28, 81, 161–3 see also financial crisis recreation/leisure industries 143 recycling 129 redistribution of wealth 52 see also inequality reforms 182–3, 222; economic structures 224; and financial crisis 103; financial systems 156–8, 180 see also alternatives; future visions; post-growth economy relative decoupling 84–5, 86; historical perspectives 87–9, 89; relationship with absolute decoupling 96–101, 111 relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72 see also social comparison religious perspectives 9–10, 214–15; materialism as alternative to religion 115; original sin 9, 131; wellbeing 48, 49 see also existential fear of death renewable energy xxxv, 41, 168–169 repair/renovation 172, 220 resource constraints 3, 7, 8, 11–15, 47 resource productivity 110, 151, 168, 169, 220 resource use: conflicts 22; credible alternatives 101, 220; decoupling 84–9, 92–5, 94, 95; and economic output 142–4; investment 151, 153, 168, 169; trade off with labour costs 110 retail therapy 115 see also consumerism; shopping revenues, state 222–3 see also taxation revolution 186 see also social stability rights: environment/nature 6–7; human see basic entitlements risk, financial 24, 25, 33, 35 The Road to Serfdom (Hayek) 187 Robinson, Edward 132 Robinson, Joan 159 Rockström, Johan 17, 165 romantic movement 9–10 Roosevelt, Franklin D. 35, 39 Rousseau, Jean Jacques 9, 131 Russia 74, 76, 77–80, 78, 122 sacred canopy 214, 215 salaries: private vs. public sector 130, 171; and profits 175–8 Sandel, Michael 150, 164, 218 São Paulo, Clean City Law 204 Sardar, Zia 49, 50 Sarkozy, Nicolas xxxi, 53 savage state, romantic movement 9–10 savings 26–7, 28, 107–9, 108; investment 149; ratios 34, 118–20, 119 scale, efficiencies of 104 Scandinavia 27, 122, 204 scarcity, managing change 16–17 Schumpeter, Joseph 112 Schwartz, Shalom 135–6, 136 schooling see education The Science of Desire (Dichter) 114 secular stagnation 43–7, 45, 173 securitisation, mortgage loans 35 security: moving towards 219; and wellbeing 48, 61 self-development 204 self-expression see identity construction self-transcending behaviours see transcendence The Selfish Gene (Dawkins) 134–5 selfishness 133–8, 196 Sen, Amartya 50, 52, 61–2, 123–4 service concept/servicization 140–4, 147–8, 148, 158 service-based economies 219; engine of growth 170–4; substitution between labour and capital 178; sustainable investment 169–70 see also public services SFC (stock-flow consistent) economic models 179–80 shame 123–4 shared endeavours, post-growth economy 227 Sheldon, Solomon 214 shelter see basic entitlements shopping 115, 116, 130 see also consumerism short-termism/living for today 194, 197, 200 signals: sent out by society 130, 193, 198, 203, 207; social status 71 see also language of goods Simon, Julian 13 simplicity/simple life 118–20, 127–9, 215–16 simulations see mathematical models/simulations slow: capital 170; movement 128 smart growth 85, 163–5 see also green growth Smith, Adam 51, 106–7, 123, 132, 187 social assets 220 social boundaries (minimum standards) 141 see also basic entitlements social care 150–1 see also caring professions social comparison 115, 116, 117 see also relative income effect social contract 194, 198, 199, 200 social inclusion 48, 69–71, 114, 212 see also participation in society social investment 155, 156, 189, 193, 208, 220–3 social justice 198 see also inequality social logic of consumerism 114–16, 204 social stability 24, 26, 80, 145, 186, 196, 205 see also alienation social status see status social structures 80, 129, 130, 137, 196, 200, 203 social tolerance, and wellbeing 59, 60 social unrest see social stability social wage 40 social welfare: financial reforms 182–3; public sector spending 169 socialism 223 Sociobiology (Wilson) 134 soil integrity 220 Solon, quotation 47, 49, 71 Soper, Kate 125–6 Soros, George 36 Soskice, David 106 Soviet Union, former 74, 76, 77–80, 78, 122 Spain 28, 58, 144, 206 SPEAR organization, responsible investment 155 species loss/extinctions 17, 47, 62, 101 speculation 93, 99, 149, 150, 154, 158, 170; economic stability 180; financial crisis 26, 33, 35; short-term profiteering 150; spending: behaviour of ordinary people 34, 119, 120–1; countercyclical 181–2, 182, 188; economic stability 81; as way out of recession 41, 44, 119, 120–1; and work cycle 125 The Spirit Level (Wilkinson and Pickett) 71, 205–6 spiritual perspectives 117, 127, 128, 214 stability see economic stability; social stability stagflation 26 stagnant sector, Baumol’s cost disease 171 stagnation: economic stability 81–2; labour productivity 145; post-financial crisis 43–7, 45 see also recession state capitalism, types/definitions of capitalism 106 state revenues, from social investment 222–3 see also taxation state roles see governance status 207, 209, 211; and possessions 69, 71, 114, 115, 117 see also language of goods; symbolic role of goods Steady State Economics (Daly) xxxii steady state economies 82, 159, 160, 174, 180 see also post-growth macroeconomics Stern, Nicholas 17–18 stewardship: role of the state 200; sustainable investment 168 Stiglitz, Joseph 53 stock-flow consistent (SFC) economic models 179–80 Stockholm Resilience Centre 17, 201 stranded assets 167–8 see also ownership structures of capitalism see economic structures struggle for existence 8–11, 125, 132–3 Stuckler, David 43 stuff see language of goods; material goods; symbolic role of goods subjective wellbeing (SWB) 49, 58, 58–9, 71, 122, 129 see also wellbeing/happiness subprime lending 26 substitution, between labour and capital 177–178 suffering, struggle for existence 10 suicide 43, 52, 77 Sukdhev, Pavan 41 sulphur dioxide pollution 95–6 Summers, Larry 36 Sunstein, Cass 194 sustainability xxv–xxvi, 102, 104, 126; financial systems 154–5; innovation 226; investment 101, 152, 153, 166–70, 220; resource constraints 12; role of the state 198, 203, 207 see also sustainable prosperity Sustainable Development Strategy, UK 198 sustainable growth see green growth sustainable prosperity 210–12; creating credible alternatives 219–21; finding meaning beyond material commodities 212–16; implications for capitalism 222–5; personal choices for improvement 216–18; and utopianism 225–7 see also limits (flourishing within) SWB see subjective wellbeing; wellbeing/happiness Switzerland 11, 46, 157; citizen’s income 207; income relative to wellbeing 58; inequality 206; life expectancy 74, 75 symbolic role of goods 69, 70–1; existential fear of death 212–16; governance 203; innovation/novelty 114–16; material footprints 139–40; paradox of materialism 121–2 see also language of goods; material goods system dynamics model 11–12, 15 tar sands/oil shales 15 taxation: capital 177; income 81; inequality 206; post-growth economy 222 technological advances 12–13, 15; decoupling 85, 86, 87, 96–8, 100–3, 164–5; dilemma of growth 211; economic stability 80; population increase 10–11; role of state 193, 220 see also novelty/innovation Teilhard de Chardin, Pierre 8 terror management, and consumption 69, 104, 115, 212–15 terrorist attacks (9/11) 121 Thailand, Buddhist monasteries 128 Thaler, Richard 194 theatre, Baumol’s cost disease 171–2 theology see religious perspectives theory of evolution 132–3 thermodynamics, laws of 112, 164 Thich Nhat Hanh 128 thrift 118–20, 127–9, 215–16 throwaway society 113, 172, 204 timescales for change 16–17 tin, commodity prices 13 Today programme interview xxix, xxviii Totnes, transition movement 128–9 Towards a Green Economy report (UNEP) 152–3 Townsend, Peter 48, 61 trade balance 31 trading standards 204 tradition 135–6, 136, 226 ‘Tragedy of the commons’ (Hardin) 190–1 transcendence 214 see also altruism; meaning/purpose; spiritual perspectives transition movement, Totnes 128–9 Triodos Bank 156, 165 Trumpf (machine-tool makers) Germany 146 trust, loss of see alienation tungsten, commodity prices 13 Turkey 58, 88 Turner, Adair 157 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (2015) 19 UBS (Swiss bank) 46 Ubuntu, African philosophy 227 unemployment 77; consumer goods 215; degrowth movement 162; financial crisis 24, 40, 41, 43; Great Depression 39–40; and growth 38; labour productivity 80–1; post-growth economy 174, 175, 183, 208, 219; work as participation 144–6 United Kingdom: Green New Deal group 152; greenhouse gas emissions 92; labour productivity 173; resource inputs 93; Sustainable Development Strategy 198 United Nations: Development Programme 6; Environment Programme 18, 152–3; Green Economy initiative 41 United States: credit unions 155–6; debt 27, 31–32; decoupling 88; greenhouse gas emissions 90–1; subprime lending 26; Works Progress Administration 39 universal basic income 221 see also citizen’s income University of Massachusetts, Political Economy Research Institute 41 utilitarianism/utility, wellbeing 50, 52–3, 55, 60 utopianism 8, 38, 125, 179; post-growth economy 225–7 values, materialistic 126, 135–6 see also intrinsic values Veblen, Thorstein 115 Victor, Peter xxxviii, 146, 175, 177, 180 vision of progress see future visions; post-growth economy volatility, commodity prices 14, 21 wages: and profits 175–8; private vs. public sector 130, 171 walking, personal choices for improvement 217 water use 22 Wealth of Nations, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes (Smith) 123, 132 wealth redistribution 52 see also inequality Weber, Axel 46 welfare policies: financial reforms 182–3; public sector spending 169 welfare of livestock 220 wellbeing/happiness 47–50, 53, 121–2, 124; collective 209; consumer goods 4, 21, 22, 126; growth 6, 165, 211; intrinsic values 126, 129; investment 150; novelty/innovation 117; opulence 50–2, 67–72; personal choices for improvement 217; planetary boundaries 141; relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72; simplicity 129; utilitarianism 50, 52–3, 55, 60 see also capabilities for flourishing western lifestyles 70, 210 White, William 46 Whybrow, Peter 68 Wilhelm, Richard 7 Wilkinson, Richard 71, 205–6 Williams, Tennessee 213 Wilson, Edward 134 wisdom traditions 48, 49, 63, 128, 213–14 work: as participation 140–9, 148, 157, 158; and spend cycle 125; sharing 145, 146, 149, 175 Works Progress Administration, USA 39 World Bank 160 World Values Survey 58 youth unemployment, financial crisis 144–5 zero sum game, growth as 57, 71

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Brought to the world’s attention in the late 1980s by climate scientist James Hansen and others, climate change has risen inexorably up the political agenda over the last two decades. Its visibility was given a massive boost by the influential Stern review. A former World Bank economist, Nicholas Stern was asked to lead a review of the economics of climate change for the UK Treasury. It is telling that it took an economist commissioned by a government Treasury to alert the world to things climate scientists – most notably the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – had been saying for years. This is partly a testament to the power of economists in the policy world. But the impact of the Stern report was also due to the seductive nature of its message. The review concluded that a small early hit on GDP (perhaps as low as 1 per cent of GDP) would allow us to avoid a much bigger hit (perhaps as high as 20 per cent of GDP) later on. Climate change can be fixed, the Stern review concluded, and we’ll barely notice the difference.


Making Globalization Work by Joseph E. Stiglitz

affirmative action, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, business process, capital controls, central bank independence, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Doha Development Round, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Firefox, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, Gunnar Myrdal, happiness index / gross national happiness, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, incomplete markets, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inventory management, invisible hand, John Markoff, Jones Act, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, microcredit, moral hazard, new economy, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, oil rush, open borders, open economy, price stability, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, race to the bottom, reserve currency, rising living standards, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, special drawing rights, statistical model, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, union organizing, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game

To use economists’ jargon, in the former case the marginal cost of usage is zero; in the latter it is positive. 2.See chapter 3, p. 84, for a discussion of the concept of externality and the role of government in dealing with the inefficiences that result. 3.Greenhouse gases include not only carbon dioxide and methane (global average atmospheric concentrations of methane have increased 150 percent since 1750) but also such gases as nitrous oxide (N20). See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Geneva: United Nations Environment Programme, 2001). 4.The most comprehensive surveys of the science on global warming are provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its periodic reports. See IPCC, IPCC Third Assessment: Climate Change 2001 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001). The previous two assessments—IPCC, IPCC First Assessment Report, 1990 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1990); and IPCC, IPCC Second Assessment: Climate Change 1995 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1995)—can be found at www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm. 5.The IPCC was established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, to assess the “risk of human-induced climate change.”

These examples show that the international community has been able, in the past, to respond to the challenge posed by a threat to the global environment. Can it respond to the enormous challenge posed by global warming? The Rio Earth Summit Some twenty years ago, as scientists first became aware of the changes taking place in the global climate, the world recognized that there was a potential problem and decided to study it. In 1988, the UN created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), asking the world’s leading experts to assess the scale of climate change and its likely impact.5 The IPCC published three major studies between 1990 and 2001, concluding in each of them that there is indeed mounting evidence of the dangers of global warming. The evidence has also been reviewed in innumerable studies by the academies of science in individual countries, including one in the United States after President George W.

But there are changes at play in the global economy—the increasing global imbalances, the mounting evidence on global warming, the continuing stalemate in the development round trade talks, the growing dissatisfaction with the World Bank, the rising awareness of the dangers of unilateralism, the WTO decision that America’s cotton subsidies are “illegal”—which, inevitably, will change the way globalization is managed. My hope is that this book will help nudge the changes in the right direction. New York April 2007 NOTES International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook 2006, Washington, DC, 2006, Table 5, available at www.imf.org/Pubs/FT/weo/2006/01/index.htm. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Geneva, February 2007, available at www.ipcc.ch/SPM2 feb07.pdf. Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007), available at www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_ review_report.cfm. See, for instance, Walter D. Nordhaus, “The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change,” unpublished manuscript, 2006, at http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/SternReviewD2.pdf; Martin L.Weitzman, “The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change,” in Journal of Economic Literature, forthcoming; or Partha Dasgupta, “Comments on the Stern Review’s Economics of Climate Change,” unpublished manuscript, 2006, at www.econ.cam.ac.uk/faculty/ dasgupta/STERN.pdf.


There Is No Planet B: A Handbook for the Make or Break Years by Mike Berners-Lee

air freight, autonomous vehicles, call centre, carbon footprint, cloud computing, dematerialisation, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, food miles, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global village, Hans Rosling, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), land reform, neoliberal agenda, off grid, performance metric, profit motive, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Stephen Hawking, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trickle-down economics, urban planning

(Berners-Lee) 32, 147–48, 227 hydrocarbons/hydrogen 72 hydroelectric power 75 hydro storage 72 ice 228 ICT (information and communication technology), impacts 84–85, 113–14 imperial units 242–44 income tax see tax system India, global distribution of fossil fuel reserves 89–90 individual actions see personal actions and effects individualism 119, 225–26, 228 indoor farming 45–46, 67–68 inequality 228 and citizen’s wage 154 energy use 60, 90–91, 131 food distribution 15–16 global deals 210 population growth 150–51 prisons/prisoners 156 tax system 142–45, 144 trickledown of wealth 130–31, 130 and values 169–71 wealth distribution 130–35, 131–40, 132, 134 insecurity 172–73 interdependencies, global/societal 189–90 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 229 interstellar travel, impracticality of 117–18, 195, 237 interventionist economies 127–30 intrinsic motivation and values 143–44, 170–73 investment 140–42, 228–29 renewable energy sources 73, 87 sustainable farming 48–50 Index iodine, malnutrition 15 IPCC see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iraq, global distribution of fossil fuel reserves 89–90 Ireland, tax system 145 iron animal sources of food 19–20 malnutrition and inequalities of distribution 15 irrigation technology 45–46 Italy, wealth distribution 130–35, 133 Japan nuclear energy 76 sunlight/radiant energy 70, 70–71 Jevons paradox, energy efficiency 82–83 jobs see work/employment joined up perspectives 189–92, 221 journalists see media roles Kennedy, Bobby: speech on GNP 124 Keys to Performance (O’Connor) 180 kids 6–8, 187, 191, 229 kilocalories 12, 242–43 kinetic energy in a gas analogy 136–39 laboratory grown meat 45–46, 67–68 lag times, climate change 204–5 land requirements, sustainable travel 101–3, 102–3, 103–4 leadership 229–30 life expectancy, benefits of growth 123 life-minutes per person lost, diesel vehicles 109 lifestyles 4–5; see also personal actions and effects 283 limits to growth 221 big picture perspective 195 energy use 67–69, 68, 94–95, 208 21st century thinking skills 187–88 and values 170 local activities, appreciation of 123, 187–88, 191 local food, pros and cons 30–32, 230 luxury cruises 115–16 Maldives 210, 230 malnutrition 15–16 Marine Stewardship Council 33 market economies 127–30 materialistic values 174; see also consumption/consumerism maturity, need for 93, 121 Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution 136–38, 230, 265 measurement see metrics meat eating see animal sources of food media roles 231 promoting culture of truth 179–80 trust 182 messages, societal 172–74; see also values methane 79–81, 208–9, 231 metric units 242–44 metrics healthy economic growth 124–27 prisons/prisoners 156 and values 174 work/employment 151 micro-nutrients animal sources of food 19–20 malnutrition 15 Microsoft, carbon pricing scheme 147 mindfulness 174–75, 191, 193 284 misinformation 222 and trust 182, 184 and truth 175 and values 170 mitigation strategies, businesses 163–64 models, climate change 200–1, 204–5 molecular analogy of wealth distribution 136–39 Monbiot, George 236 motivation extrinsic/intrinsic 143–44, 172–73 and trust 181, 184 Musk, Elon 167 natural gas 224; see also fracking; methane neoliberalism 45, 129, 131, 172, 228, 232; see also free market Netherlands 70, 70–71, 149–50 neuroscience 232 nitrogen dioxide 108, 208–9 Norway 130–35, 138, 155–56 nuclear fusion 77, 232 nuclear power (fusion) 75–77, 231–32 obesity 16 ocean acidification 54–55, 232 O’Connor, Tim: Keys to Performance 180 oil 233; see also fossil fuels One Planet principles 160–62, 162 open-mindedness neuroscience 232 respect for 180 spirituality/belief systems 192 and trust 181–82, 184 optimism bias 233 over-simplification 182; see also complexity overeating 16 INDEX parental responsibility 233 Paris climate agreement 165–66 particulate air pollution 107–9 Patagonian Toothfish 33–34 pay rates 173; see also wealth distribution personal actions and effects 198–99, 233–34 air travel 112–13 antibiotics resistance 21 climate change 55 energy 97 feelings of insignificance in global systems 5–6 food/agricultural issues 30, 34–35, 40, 43, 50 population growth 150–51 promoting culture of truth 178–79 technological changes 168 values 174–75 wealth distribution 139 work/employment 153 ‘personal truths’ 176–77 perspectives big picture 186, 191, 195–97 businesses 159 joined up 189–92, 221 photocopying metaphor 219 photovoltaic technology 63–64, 66–67; see also solar energy physical growth mind-set 120 Planet B, lack of 117–18, 195, 237 planned economies 127–30 planning ahead, future scenarios 204–5 planning, urban 104 plastics 55–58, 56–57, 234 politicians see governmental roles; voting pollution, chicken farming 25–26; see also air pollution Index population growth 149–50, 234 feeding growing populations 46–47 investment in control measures 141, 150–51 personal actions and effects 150–51 risks of further growth 122 positive feedback mechanisms, climate change 200–1, 239 power, units of 242–43 prisons/prisoners 154–57, 157, 174, 234 problem-solving methods 5 profit-motive 159, 174 protein animal sources 17–18, 18 carbon footprints 23–25, 24 psychology 227–28 public service 174 questions and answers, reader contributions 194 reader contributions 9–10, 194 ready meals 238 rebalancing, evolutionary 6, 221 rebound effects 213, 235, 272 business strategies 163 climate change 52, 128, 165–66, 206–7, 206 energy efficiency 84, 207 virtual meetings 113–14 reductionism 189–90, 193 refugees 234–35 relatedness/belonging 266 religion 192–93 renewable energy sources 64, 208, 235 hydroelectric power 75 investment 141 limitations relative to fossil fuels 73–86, 85–87 285 using instead of/as well as fossil fuels 81–82 wind energy 73–74 see also biofuels; carbon capture and storage; solar energy respect 171, 180, 197 responsibility corporate 219 parents 233 super-rich 134–35 restaurants role food wastage 40 vegetarianism/veganism 28 retailing, food see food retailers revenge, prisoners 155–56 rice farming 29–30, 45–46, 235 rock weathering, carbon capture and storage 92 Rogers, Carl 172 Russia 210, 235 global distribution of fossil fuel reserves 89–90 sunlight/radiant energy 69–70, 70 Rwanda 70, 70–71, 172 salaries 173; see also wealth distribution Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) 164–66 scientific facts see facts scientific fundamentalism 176 scientific reductionism 189–90, 193 seabass, rebadging Patagonian toothfish as 33–34 sea travel 114–16, 235–36 self-awareness of simple/small/local 123, 187–88, 191 and trust 181, 184 self-reflection, 21st century thinking skills 188 286 sentient animals, treating decently 11, 17 shared-use vehicles 105–6 shareholder profits 159, 174 sharing 146 shifting baseline syndrome 236 shipping 114–16, 235–36 shock 236 simple things, appreciation of 123, 187–88, 191 simplistic thinking 182; see also complexity slavery and citizen’s wage 154 and employment 151 fishing industry 32, 34–35 slowing down 187–88, 196 small scale, appreciation of 123, 187–88, 191 Smith, Adam: The Wealth of Nations 129 social support structures, and values 173–74 solar energy 236 amount falling on earth 66 coping with intermittent sunlight 71–73 countries with highest radiant energy 69–71 countries with least radiant energy 70–71 relative to fossil fuel reserves 89 global distribution of radiant energy 69–71, 70 harnessing 66–67 South Korea, sunlight/radiant energy 70, 70–71 soya beans 21, 22, 236–37 space tourism 94, 100 spaceflight, impracticality of interstellar travel 117–18, 195, 237 INDEX Spain, wealth distribution 130–35, 133 spending practices, ethical consumerism 147–48, 168 spirituality/belief systems 192–93, 237 status symbols 173 sticking plasters (band aids) 237–38 storage of renewable energy 71–73 sunlight see solar energy supermarkets see food retailers super-rich responsibilities 134–35 taxation 145 wealth distribution 137 supply chains ethical consumerism 147–48 food and agriculture 48 science-based targets 165–66 systems approaches big picture perspective 196 businesses 159–62, 161 One Planet Living principles 160–62, 162 Taiwan, tax system 145 takeaways 238 tax system 238 carbon taxes 142–43 wealth distribution 138, 142–45 technological changes 239 agricultural 45–46 big picture perspective 195–96 business strategies 166–68 and economic growth 122–23 thinking skills big picture perspective 197 twenty-first century 185–92, 190–91 tipping points see trigger points town planning 104 transmission of renewable energy 73 Index travel and transport 99 air travel 110–14 autonomous cars 109–10 commuting 217 current rates 99–100, 100 cycling 116 diesel vehicles 107–9, 109 e-cars 106 food miles 30–32 future demands 100–1, 109–10 land needed for sustainable 101–3, 102–3, 103–4 sea travel 114–16 shared-use vehicles 105–6 spaceflight 117–18 urban 104–6 trickledown of wealth 130–31, 130, 239 trigger points, step changes in climate 2, 200–2 trust 180–84 truth 175–76, 239 big picture perspective 197 importance of seeking 177 media roles 179–80 ‘personal truths’ 176–77 promoting culture of 177–79 respect for 171 and trust 180–84 tsunami, December 2004 2 twenty-first century thinking skills 185–92, 190–91, 197 2-degree ‘safe limit’ for temperature rise 52, 200–1, 204–5, 239 unconditional positive regard 172 United Kingdom energy by end use 62, 62 gambling industry 139–40 nuclear energy 76 population growth 149–50 prisons/prisoners 155 287 sunlight/radiant energy 70, 70–71 wealth distribution 136–37 United States global distribution of fossil fuel reserves 89–90 prisons/prisoners 155–56 sunlight/radiant energy 69–70, 70 tax system 145 wealth distribution 130–35, 132–35 units, metric/imperial 242–44 urban planning 104 urban transport 104–6 value of human life 240 values 6–8, 169 big picture perspective 197 businesses 159, 174 changing for the better 172–75 and economics 119 evidence base for values choices 169–71 extrinsic/intrinsic 170–73 global cultural norms 171–72, 197 prisons/prisoners 156 technological changes 168 wealth distribution 132–33 work/employment 152–53 see also ethical consumerism vegetarianism/veganism 26–29 Venezuela, global distribution of fossil fuels 89–90 violent deaths 240 virtual travel 113–14 visions of future 8–9 businesses 159 vitamin A 15, 19–20, 247 voting, power of 240–41 climate change policies 51–53, 200–11 288 voting, power of (cont.) energy policies 59, 97 promoting culture of truth 178–80 see also democracy waking up 241 Wallis, Stewart 145 waste food 36–43, 241 mitigation 42–44, 43, 43 as proportion of food grown 12–15, 14 by region/type/processing stage 37, 38–39, 39 water use technology, in agriculture 45–46 watts 12, 242–43 wealth distribution economics 130–35, 131–40, 132, 134 tax system 138, 142–45, 144 see also inequality The Wealth of Nations (Smith) 129 INDEX weapons industry 152 weight, units of 244 wellbeing 241 benefits of growth 123 businesses, role of 158–59 and citizen’s wage 154 metrics of healthy growth 126 work/employment 151–52 Wellbeing Economy 267 wind energy 73–74 wisdom, need for 93, 121 work/employment 229 agricultural work 44–45, 222 and citizen’s wage 153–54 investment in sustainability 49–50 personal actions and effects 153 useful/beneficial 151–52 values 152–53 zinc 15, 19–20

Since there is only so much money to go around, divestment liberates the opportunity for investment elsewhere. Just to give one important example, investment in fossil fuels is unhelpful. However, divestment from them creates opportunity for Alphabetical Quick Tour 229 investment in things we urgently need like renewables, green transport and direct capture of carbon from air. IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A large group of very clever and well-resourced scientists who have put together an incredibly thoughtful and robust assessment of climate change; the risks and uncertainties. In the past it has had two main shortcomings. First has been the misplaced belief that presenting the arguments ever more clearly with increasing rigour is what is required to win the argument and precipitate appropriate action on climate change.

Some of what follows was laid out in more detail by Duncan Clark and I in ‘The Burning Question’ 1 although the position briefly outlined here also contains some important updates. STOP PRESS: As this book went into its final edit, the IPCC's long awaited special report 'Global Warming of 1.5 degrees' hit the front pages of all good news media. It is the IPCC's most urgent call for action so far and is a very useful development. Since it draws mainly on the same source material that I have used, it is no surprise that the report is totally coherent with the points in this appendix. Happily, unlike the IPCC, I have not had to negotiate the content with any politicians, so it is easier for me to get quickly to the point without any requirement for tact.2 Point 1: A global temperature rise of 2 C looks very risky but 1.5 C much less so In truth, no one really knows how bad the consequences of any particular temperature rise might be.


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Net Zero: How We Stop Causing Climate Change by Dieter Helm

3D printing, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, blockchain, Boris Johnson, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, coronavirus, COVID-19, Covid-19, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, demand response, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, fixed income, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Haber-Bosch Process, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, market design, means of production, North Sea oil, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, planetary scale, price mechanism, quantitative easing, remote working, reshoring, Ronald Reagan, smart meter, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, statistical model, Thomas Malthus

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AI, artificial intelligence BSE, bovine spongiform encephalopathy CAP, Common Agricultural Policy CBA, cost–benefit analysis CCC, Committee on Climate Change CCS, carbon capture and storage CEGB, Central Electricity Generating Board CfD, Contract for Difference COP, Conference of the Parties CRISPR, clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats DECC, Department of Energy and Climate Change Defra, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DDT, Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane DETR, Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions DNO, distribution network operator EFP, equivalent firm power EMR, Electricity Market Reform EU ETS, EU Emissions Trading System GDP, gross domestic product GMO, genetically modified organism GW, gigawatt HS2, a planned high-speed rail project for England ICT, information and communications technology IEA, International Energy Agency IEM, Internal Energy Market IP, intellectual property IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LED, light-emitting diode LNG, liquefied natural gas mbd, million barrels per day MPC, Monetary Policy Committee NDC, nationally determined contribution NFU, National Farmers’ Union OPEC, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ppm, parts per million PV, photovoltaics R&D, research and development RAB, regulated asset base SUV, sport utility vehicle TWh, terawatt-hour UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USO, universal service obligation VAT, value-added tax WTO, World Trade Organization INTRODUCTION It is not going well.

The failure to act has flown in the face of the knowledge of what that failure will mean for future generations. The UN decided that immediate action needed to be taken on the reasonable grounds that there was enough evidence to act, and delay was only going to make things worse. There followed the ground-breaking UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC),[2] signed in 1992, committing the signatories to action and drawing on the reports of the already established Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This in turn led to the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, with targets indexed back to the baseline of 1990.[3] Apart from nuclear arms treaties, there has probably never been anything like the UNFCCC in human history. Hopes were high. The fact that the Soviet Union had imploded added to the sense that there was a new world order, capable of tackling this new and huge problem.

acid rain 25, 194 Africa xiv, xv, 2, 25, 30, 38, 44, 45, 47, 48, 51, 137, 229 agriculture 2, 6, 12, 13, 14, 23, 35–6, 43, 44–5, 70, 76, 86, 87–8, 95, 100, 102, 109, 116, 146–7, 149, 159, 163–80, 181, 183, 192, 197, 198, 206, 220 baseline, the 164–8 biodiversity loss and 2, 5, 100, 164, 165, 168, 169, 171, 172, 174, 180 biofuels and 197–8 carbon emissions and 2, 12, 13, 35–6, 76–7, 146–7, 163–80 carbon price and 167–70, 171, 172, 173, 180 China and 28–9, 35, 45, 180 economics of 76, 165, 166–7, 171, 174 electricity and 13, 166, 168, 174, 178, 180 fertiliser use see fertiliser lobby 14, 110, 164, 165, 169, 170, 197 methane emissions 23, 84, 177, 178, 179 net gain and 172–4 net value of UK 76, 166 new technologies/indoor farming 87–8, 174–9, 180, 213 peat bogs and 2, 179 pesticide use see pesticides petrochemicals and 166 polluter-pays principle and 76, 168–70, 172, 173 pollution 36, 86, 163, 165–6, 168–70, 172, 173, 177–8, 230 public goods, agricultural 170–4, 180 sequestering carbon and 12, 95, 163, 166, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173–4, 177, 179, 180 soils and 2, 146, 163, 164, 165, 166, 168, 169, 171, 172, 175, 179 subsidies 14, 76, 102, 109, 116, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 172, 180, 228 25 Year Plan and 179–80 Agriculture Bill (2018), UK 170 air conditioning 135–6, 224, 233 air quality xiii, 13, 25, 46, 52, 61, 70, 135, 153, 177, 180, 201, 216, 230, 232 air transport 3–4, 6, 11, 13, 22, 50, 53, 73, 87, 88, 92, 107, 125, 128, 129, 132, 133, 134, 149, 156–7, 186, 195, 201, 203–5 aluminium 7, 117 Amazon rainforest 2, 34, 35, 95, 145, 149–50, 151, 155, 229, 230 ammonia 35, 137, 191 anaerobic digesters 35, 165, 230 animal welfare 167, 177 antibiotics 93, 165, 174 Arctic 26, 46, 114, 178 artificial intelligence (AI) 32, 175, 220, 231 autonomous vehicles 13, 129, 132, 175, 189–90, 231 Balkans 137–8 Bank of England 121 batteries 6, 31, 131, 135, 141, 183, 184, 185–90, 191, 199, 204, 213, 214, 219, 220, 221, 225, 231 beef 5, 95, 116, 117, 167, 230 Berlin, Isaiah 104 big 5 polluter products 117–18, 120 bin Salman, Mohammad 27 biocrops 36 biodiversity xiv, 2, 5, 12, 13, 28, 35, 51, 76, 94, 100, 148, 149, 152, 153, 158, 159, 164, 165, 168, 169–70, 171, 172, 174, 180, 227, 233 bioenergy 31, 34–5, 36 biofuels 21, 35, 49, 50, 67, 70, 95, 135, 183, 184, 197–8, 210, 230 biomass 32, 34, 49, 50, 67, 69, 109, 146, 147, 151, 210, 217 bonds, government 220 BP 27, 149, 187, 199 Deepwater Horizon disaster, Gulf of Mexico (2010) 147 Brazil 2, 35, 38, 44–5, 47, 95, 145, 149–50, 155, 198 Brexit 42, 47, 56, 117, 165 British Gas 102, 139 British Steel x, 194 broadband networks 6, 11, 90, 92, 125, 126, 127–8, 130–1, 132–3, 135, 140–1, 199, 201, 202, 205, 211, 214, 231, 232 Brundtland Commission 45 BT 127–8, 141 Openreach 214 Burn Out (Helm) ix, xiv Bush, George W. 36, 48, 53, 103 business rates 76, 165 Canada 52, 191, 193 capitalist model 26, 42, 99, 227 carbon border tax/carbon border adjustment xii, 11, 13, 60, 80, 115–20, 194–6, 204 carbon capture and storage (CCS) xiv, 12, 75–6, 95, 109, 146, 147–8, 149, 154, 159, 203–4, 207, 209, 222, 223 Carbon Crunch, The (Helm) ix, xiv, 221 carbon diary 4–5, 8, 10, 11, 64–6, 83, 86, 116, 143, 144, 155, 156, 167, 180, 181, 185, 203, 205 carbon emissions: agriculture and see agriculture by country (2015) 30 during ice ages and warm periods for the past 800,000 years 21 economy and 81–159 electricity and see electricity global annual mean concentration of CO2 (ppm) 19 global average long-term concentration of CO2 (ppm) 20 measuring 43–6 since 1990 1–14, 17–37 transport and see individual method of transport 2020, position in 36–7 UN treaties and 38–57 unilateralism and 58–80 see also unilateralism carbon offsetting xiii–xiv, 4, 5, 12, 34, 45, 72, 74, 79, 94–6, 97, 105, 143–59, 192, 201, 203, 207, 214, 222, 223, 234 for companies 148–50 for countries 151–5 for individuals 155–7 markets 71–2, 110–13, 117, 144, 157–9, 208 travel and 156, 201–3 see also sequestration carbon permits 71–2, 79, 110–13, 117, 144, 208 carbon price/tax xii, xiii, xv, 8, 11, 12, 13, 26, 60, 61, 71, 72, 77, 79, 80, 84, 85–6, 102–3, 105, 106–24, 134, 143, 146, 147, 150, 151–4, 157, 159, 192, 197, 198, 199, 203, 227–30, 232, 234 agriculture and 167, 168, 169–70, 171, 173, 180 domain of the tax/carbon border adjustment xii, 11, 13, 60, 80, 115–20, 121, 124, 192, 194–6, 197, 204, 227 electric pollution and 216–18 ethics of 107–10 floor price 115, 117, 208 for imports 11, 13 prices or quantities/EU ETS versus carbon taxes 110–13 setting 113–15 transport and 192–9 what to do with the money 121–4 where to levy the tax 119–20 who fixes the price 120–1 carbon sinks 2, 5, 166, 169, 203 carboniferous age 34 cars 1, 3, 4, 7, 20, 22, 36, 44, 70, 73, 114, 129, 181, 182, 183, 184–5, 190, 191, 193, 196, 197, 198, 199 see also electric vehicles cartels 39, 40, 43, 45, 46, 47, 56 cattle farming 35, 36, 95, 150, 166, 167, 173, 177, 198 Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) 102, 139, 218 cement 6, 7, 26, 29, 34, 87, 117, 171 charging networks, electric vehicle 91, 129–30, 141–2, 184, 185–90, 199, 200, 202, 219 Chernobyl 78 China xi, xv, 1–2, 5, 8, 18, 42, 46, 47, 48, 64, 66, 74, 101, 180, 229 Belt and Road Initiative 28, 45 coal use 1–2, 8, 23–4, 24, 28, 31, 38, 117, 154, 206, 208 Communist Party 2, 27, 42, 46 demand for fossil fuels/carbon emissions 1–2, 8, 18, 20, 22, 23–4, 24, 25, 27–31, 36, 38, 51, 73, 117, 154, 206, 208 export market x–xi, 5, 9, 64, 66, 117, 155, 194 fertiliser use 35 GDP xv, 27, 29 nationalism and 42 petrochemical demand 22 renewables companies 9, 32, 73, 74, 77, 79 Tiananmen Square 42 unilateralism and 58, 59 UN treaties and 46, 47, 48, 53, 54, 55, 58, 59 US trade war 56, 118 Churchill, Winston 183 citizen assemblies 99–101 climate change: carbon emissions and see carbon emissions 1.5° target 38, 57 2° target 1, 10, 22–3, 28, 30, 38, 39, 45, 47, 54, 55, 57, 108, 122, 155, 206 see also individual area of climate change Climate Change Act (2008) 66, 74–7 Clinton, Bill 40, 48 Club of Rome 98 coal 1–2, 5, 8, 13, 20, 23–5, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 34, 36, 38, 50, 52, 53, 60–1, 67, 72, 77, 78–9, 101, 109, 112, 116, 117, 119, 134, 136, 145, 147, 148, 151, 154, 155, 182, 183, 194, 196, 206–9, 210, 212, 214, 216, 217, 218, 229, 230 coastal marshes 146, 159 colonialism 45 Committee on Climate Change (CCC), UK x–xi, 7, 74–5, 120, 164, 166, 169, 217, 235 ‘Net Zero: The UK’s Contribution to Stopping Global Warming’ report x–xi conference/video calls 6, 129, 156, 202, 205 Conference of the Parties (COP) xii, 10, 48, 50, 53–4, 55, 59, 205 congestion charges 198 Copenhagen Accord 48, 53–4, 59 Coronavirus see Covid-19 cost-benefit analysis (CBA) 71, 108, 110, 114, 138 cost of living 116 Covid-19 x, xi–xii, 1, 3, 6, 9, 18, 19, 22, 25, 27, 30, 37, 44, 46, 50, 57, 65, 69, 80, 89, 93, 129, 135, 148, 171, 201, 202, 204, 232 CRISPR 176 crop yields 172, 177 dams 2, 36, 52–3, 179 DDT (Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) 100 deforestation 2, 5, 34, 35, 36, 38, 43, 44, 47, 55, 87, 95, 145, 146, 149–50, 155, 172–3, 179, 197–8, 229 Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) 170 deindustrialisation x, 29, 46, 52, 54, 59, 72–4, 218 Deng Xiaoping 27 Denmark 69–70, 136–7 desalination 135–6, 179 diesel 4, 20–1, 70, 76, 86, 109, 119, 121, 129, 132, 164, 165, 166, 174, 175, 178, 179, 181, 182, 185, 186, 191, 192, 196–7, 208, 217, 230 ‘dieselgate’ scandal 196–7 digitalisation 1, 8, 11, 13, 33, 92, 117, 136, 174, 175, 180, 206, 211, 215, 221, 228–9, 231 DONG 69 Drax 147, 151, 154, 218 economy, net zero 10–12, 81–159 delivering a 96–103 intergenerational equity and 96–7 markets and 103–5 net environmental gain see net environmental gain political ideologies and 98–101 polluter-pays principle see polluter-pays principle public goods, provision of see public goods, provision of technological change and 98 EDF 139, 218 Ehrlich, Paul 98 electricity 1–2, 4, 6, 11, 12, 13, 23, 31, 32, 49, 53, 61, 65, 66, 68, 70, 73, 77, 78, 79, 91, 92, 101, 102, 109, 117, 125, 127, 128, 129–30, 131–2, 134, 135, 136, 137, 139, 140, 141, 149, 158, 166, 168, 174, 178, 180, 182, 183, 228, 229, 231, 232, 234, 235 coal, getting out of 206–7 electric pollution and the carbon price 216–18 electric vehicles 4, 6, 13, 20, 23, 49, 61, 91, 92, 94, 121, 125, 128, 129–30, 131–2, 134, 141, 183–92, 193, 194, 197, 200, 201, 202, 206, 219, 228 equivalent firm power auctions and system operators 210–16 future of 206–25 gas, how to get out of 207–9 infrastructure, electric 185–90, 218–20 low-carbon options post-coal and gas 209–10 net gain and our consumption 222–5 R&D and next-generation renewables 220–2 renewable see renewables Energy Market Reform (EMR) 219 equivalent firm power (EFP) 212–16, 217, 220 ethanol 35, 71, 95, 197 eucalyptus trees xiv, 152 European Commission 60, 71, 72, 112 European Union (EU) xiv, 2, 7, 8, 9, 37, 42, 44, 46, 47, 117, 137, 165, 166, 197; baseline of 1990 and 51–2 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 76, 165 competition regime and customs union 56 deindustrialisation and 46, 52, 54, 59, 72–4 directives for 2030 66 Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) 71–2, 73, 79, 110–13, 117, 144, 208 importing carbon emissions 59 Internal Energy Market (IEM) 68, 71 Kyoto and 9, 51, 59, 66–7 Mercosur Agreement 44, 95 net zero target for 2050 66, 115, 143, 155, 167, 180 Paris and 54 Renewable Energy Directive 68–71, 73, 109 2020 targets signed into law 66 2020–20–20 targets 67, 69, 74 unilateralism and 59, 66–71, 80 Eurostar 133 externalities 104, 170, 180, 196 Extinction Rebellion 6 farmers 14, 26, 35, 36, 43, 71, 76, 86, 95, 102, 109, 110, 146–7, 164, 165, 166, 169, 170, 174, 175, 196, 197, 198 fertiliser 4, 6, 7, 26, 29, 35, 61, 73, 86, 87, 116, 117, 119, 163, 165, 169, 174, 175, 178, 179, 191, 194, 197 fibre/broadband networks 6, 11, 90, 92, 125, 126, 127–8, 130–1, 132–3, 135, 140–1, 201, 202, 205, 211, 214, 231, 232 financial crisis (2007/8) 1, 19, 69 first-mover advantage 75 First Utility 199 flooding 13, 77, 149, 152, 153, 159, 170, 233 food miles 167 food security 170–1 food waste 178, 180, 231 Forestry Commission xiv Formula One 186, 196 fossil fuels, golden age of 20–5 see also individual fossil fuel France 46, 47, 52, 56, 73, 78, 101, 113, 130, 136, 138 free-rider problem 39–40, 43, 62–4, 106, 119 fuel duty 121, 195–6 fuel efficiency 197 fuel prices 26, 112–13, 209 fuel use declaration 195 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster (2011) 52, 78 Fukuyama, Francis: The End of History and the Last Man 40–1 gardens 6, 43, 143, 156 gas, natural ix, 2, 5, 8, 20, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, 31, 32, 36, 50, 52, 68, 69, 79, 102, 109, 117, 119, 129, 136, 137, 146, 147–8, 149, 183, 190, 193, 194, 207–9, 210, 211, 214, 216–17 G8 47 gene editing 172, 176, 231 general election (2019) 121 genetics 98, 172, 174–6, 231 geoengineering 177 geothermal power 137, 178 Germany 9, 30, 47, 52, 59, 60, 62, 66, 67, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 75, 77–80, 83, 91, 101, 112, 136, 137, 138, 144, 206, 208, 209 Energiewende (planned transition to a low-carbon, nuclear-free economy) 59, 69, 77–80, 112, 144, 208 Gilets Jaunes 101, 113 GMOs (genetically modified organisms) 176, 177 Great Northern Forest, Britain 151 Green and Prosperous Land (Helm) xiii, xiv, 165, 169, 234 greenbelt 173 greenhouse effect 17 green new deal 90, 102, 234 green parties/green votes 69, 77, 78 green QE (quantitative easing) 102–3 green walls 153, 231 greenwash 156 gross domestic product (GDP) xii, xv, 1, 25, 27, 29, 41, 57, 59, 73, 76, 83, 93, 98, 103, 133, 165, 207, 227, 229, 233 growth nodes 133 G7 47 G20 47 Haber-Bosch process 35, 163 Hamilton, Lewis 186 ‘hands-free’ fields 175 Harry, Prince 6 Heathrow 133, 134 hedgerow 76, 166, 167, 172 Helm Review (‘The Cost of Energy Review’) (2017) ix, 120, 141, 200, 210, 212, 215, 217, 220, 238 herbicide 163 home insulation 102 House of Lords 170 housing 101, 223–4 HS2 92, 125, 132–4, 138, 202 Hume, David 49 hydrogen 13, 49, 92, 125, 128, 135, 137, 183, 184, 190–2, 199, 200, 204, 206, 213, 228 hydro power 31, 35, 36, 50, 52–3, 70, 136, 137, 191 Iceland 137, 178 imports x–xi, xiii, 5, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 62, 68, 70, 117–18, 155, 167, 178, 173, 180, 196, 227 income effect 72, 111 income tax 121, 122, 232 India xiv, xv, 25, 30, 31, 38, 43, 44, 47, 48, 51, 54, 55, 57, 154, 229 individuals, net zero for 155–7 Indonesia 2, 35 indoor farming 87–8, 177–8, 180, 213 indoor pollutants 223, 232 Industrial Revolution 1, 18, 19, 25, 47, 116, 145 INEOS Grangemouth petrochemical plant xi information and communications technology (ICT) 117, 202, 231 infrastructures, low-carbon xiii, xiv, 11–12, 14, 28, 60, 62, 65, 66, 90, 91–4, 96, 105, 109, 123, 125–42, 143, 147, 151, 154, 159, 171, 184, 186, 187, 190, 199–200, 214, 218–20, 228, 230, 231–2, 234–5 centrality of infrastructure networks 128–30 electric 125–41, 218–20 making it happen 141–2 net zero national infrastructure plan 130–6 private markets and 125–8, 141–2 regional and global infrastructure plan 136–7 state intervention and 126, 127–8, 141–2 system operators and implementing the plans 138–41 inheritance tax 76, 165 insects 164, 177, 231 insulation 102, 224 Integrated Assessment Models 114 intellectual property (IP) 75 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 17–18, 47, 55, 57, 108, 172 internal combustion engine 13, 22, 181–2, 183, 184, 200, 221, 228 Internal Energy Market (IEM) 68, 71, 138 International Energy Agency (IEA) 25, 207 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 51 internet banking 131, 213 internet-of-things 128, 175 Iran 27, 42, 113, 137 Iraq 56, 192 Ireland 43, 157 Italy 137, 182 Japan 27, 28, 30, 52, 73, 78, 101, 185 Jevons Paradox 224 Johnson, Boris 89–90 Kant, Immanuel 104 Keynes, John Maynard 89, 102, 103, 105 Kyoto Protocol (1997) xii, 2, 7, 9, 13, 17–18, 37, 38, 39, 40–1, 47–8, 49, 51, 52–3, 59, 66–7, 119 laissez-faire 104, 138, 188 land use 35, 61, 95, 172, 237 LED (light-emitting diode) lighting 87, 178, 179, 180, 213 liquefied natural gas (LNG) 136, 183 lithium-ion battery 185 lobbying 10, 14, 33, 69, 71, 109, 110, 111–12, 115, 121, 157, 169, 170, 187, 197, 209, 223, 227, 228 location-specific taxes 194 maize 35, 165, 197 Malaysia 2, 229 Malthus, Thomas 98 Mao, Chairman 27, 42 meat xi, 65, 164, 177, 180, 232 Mekong River 2, 28, 179, 229 Mercosur Agreement 44, 95 Merkel, Angela 78 methane 4, 23, 84, 177, 178, 179, 216 microplastics 22 miracle solution 49–50, 55, 209 mobile phone 5, 125, 185 National Farmers’ Union (NFU) 110, 164, 165, 169, 170, 171 National Grid 139, 141, 189, 200, 211, 214, 219 nationalisations 101–2, 126–7 nationalism 41, 43, 55, 56, 138 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) 54–5 natural capital xiii, 14, 33–6, 51, 85, 86, 88, 90, 94, 97, 154, 158, 168, 171, 173–4, 236 Nature Fund 123, 169, 234 net environmental gain principle xiii, xiv, 10, 12, 62, 84, 94–6, 105, 143–59, 169, 172–4, 192, 201–3, 222–5 agriculture and 169, 172–4 carbon offsetting and see carbon offsetting electricity and 222–5 principle of 94–6, 143–4 sequestration and see sequestration transport and 192, 201–3 Netherlands 138 Network Rail 214 net zero agriculture and see agriculture defined x–xv, 3–14 economy 10–12, 81–159 see also economy, net zero electricity and see electricity transport and see individual method of transport 2025 or 2030 target 89 2050 target x, xi, 5, 59, 66, 74, 75, 115, 120, 135, 143, 155, 167, 169, 180, 184, 216, 217, 222, 226, 230, 231, 232 unilateralism and see unilateralism NHS 65 non-excludable 91, 93, 126, 170 non-rivalry 91, 93, 126, 170 North Korea 42 North Sea oil/gas 9, 40, 75, 97, 102, 137, 139, 147, 148, 193 Norway 130, 137, 191 nuclear power 5, 9, 12, 18, 23, 52, 60, 73, 77–9, 109, 125, 128, 129, 136, 140, 178, 194, 199, 206, 207, 208, 209–10, 212, 214, 216, 218, 219, 222, 228 Obama, Barack 48, 53, 54, 59 oceans 2, 14, 22, 33, 85, 86, 88, 148, 163, 231 offsetting see carbon offsetting offshore wind power 31, 69, 75–6, 208, 212, 219, 221 Ofgem 220 oil ix, 2, 20, 22–3, 25, 26, 27, 31, 32, 33, 36, 39, 40, 50, 67, 69, 86, 97, 117, 119, 129, 136, 137, 146, 147, 148–9, 150–1, 152, 181–3, 184, 185, 187, 189, 190, 192–4, 196, 197, 199, 206, 209, 210, 216–17, 229 OPEC 39, 40, 193 Orbán, Viktor 41, 42 organic food 61, 87, 178 Ørsted 70 palm oil 2, 5, 6, 35, 36, 66, 71, 167, 173, 197–8, 230 pandemic see Covid-19 Paris Climate Change Agreement (2015) xii, 2, 10, 13, 18, 30, 37, 38, 39, 48, 49, 54–5, 56, 57, 58, 66, 80, 105, 106, 118, 119, 227 peat bogs xiv, 2, 13, 14, 33, 35, 36, 43, 109, 146, 169, 179 pesticides 4, 26, 61, 163, 165, 169, 174, 178, 231 petrochemicals xi, 7, 8, 20, 22–3, 29, 73, 80, 86, 117, 166, 182 petrol 4, 86, 119, 121, 129, 185, 186, 187, 191, 192, 199 photosynthesis 34, 197 plastics 1, 22, 28, 35, 43, 66, 86, 87, 119, 143, 166, 184, 231 polluter-pays principle xiii, xv, 84–90 agriculture and 76, 168–70, 172, 173 carbon price and see carbon price/tax generalised across all sources of pollution 86 identifying polluters that should pay 86 importance of 10–11, 13, 61, 62, 65 intergenerational balance and 96–7 net environmental gain and 94 sequestration and see sequestration, carbon sustainable economy and 96–7, 105, 106 transport and 192–5, 198–9 see also individual type of pollution population growth 93, 97, 177, 178, 179, 232 privatisation 127, 140, 218–19, 220 property developers 94 public goods, provision of xiii, 10, 11–12, 62, 75, 84, 90–4, 96, 104, 105, 109, 122, 123, 126, 128, 141, 147, 151, 153, 159, 164, 168, 173–4, 180, 192, 199–200, 202, 218, 229, 230 agricultural 170–4, 180 low-carbon infrastructures see infrastructures, low-carbon research and development (R&D) see research and development (R&D) Putin, Vladimir 27, 41, 42, 89 railways 11, 13, 13, 87, 91, 92, 94, 125, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132–3, 138, 139, 156, 182, 183, 187, 202, 212, 214, 232 rainforest 2, 5, 34, 35, 36, 38, 44, 47, 55, 87, 95, 145, 149, 155, 173, 179–80, 197, 229 rationalism 40–1 Reagan, Ronald 103 red diesel 76, 109, 164, 165, 196 regulated asset base (RAB) 127, 141, 215, 220 remote working 128, 156, 201–2, 205 renewables ix, 6, 8, 9–10, 18, 19, 21, 26, 31–5, 36, 49, 50, 55, 61, 67, 72, 77, 79, 85, 86, 109, 110, 112, 123, 125, 128, 131, 135, 138, 140, 144, 149, 178, 188, 191, 194, 197, 199, 207, 209–10, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 219, 220–2, 224, 228 Chinese domination of market 9, 32, 73, 74, 77, 79 cost-competitiveness of 9–10, 49, 51, 61, 68 failure of, 1990-now 19, 31–3, 36 modern global renewable energy consumption measured in TWh per year 32 miracle solution and 49–51 Renewable Energy Directive 68–71, 73, 109 subsidies ix, 9, 10, 50, 68–9, 71, 79, 80 see also individual renewable energy source Renewables UK 110 research and development (R&D) xiv, 12, 13, 14, 62, 65, 66, 90, 93–4, 104, 109, 123, 165, 172, 192, 200, 218, 220–2, 223, 228, 234 reshoring businesses 8, 204 rivers 2, 22, 28, 86, 128, 152, 165, 169, 179, 214, 230 roads 11, 28, 45, 91, 92, 125, 129, 131–2, 140, 165, 182, 189, 194, 198, 202, 232 robotics 32, 175, 204, 206, 231 Rosneft 26 Royal Navy 183 Russia 26, 27, 30, 40, 42, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 50, 52, 55, 56, 192, 193 RWE 139, 218 Ryanair 156–7 rye grass 35 salmon 169, 177 Saudi Arabia 26, 33, 40, 42, 50, 137, 192, 193 Saudi Aramco 26, 50 seashells 34 sequestration, carbon xi, xiv, 12, 61, 66, 85, 90, 95, 143–59, 228, 229, 231, 232 agriculture and 12, 163, 166, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173, 176–7, 179, 180 baseline definition and 146–7 biofuels and 35, 146, 217 carbon capture and storage (CCS) xiv, 12, 75–6, 95, 109, 146, 147–8, 149, 154, 159, 203–4, 207, 209, 222, 223 companies, net zero for 148–51 countries, offsetting for 151–5 electricity and 222, 223 gas and 207 individuals, net zero for xi, xiv, 155–7 markets, offsetting 157–9 natural capital destruction and 2, 19, 33–6, 44, 45, 51 natural sequestration xi, xiii, 2, 7, 12, 14, 33–6, 37, 45, 52, 66, 85, 90, 94–6, 105, 143–59, 163, 168, 171, 173, 176–7, 179, 180, 203, 206, 207, 222, 223 net gain principle and 143–4, 146, 149–50 offsetting principle and 143–5 peat bogs and see peat bogs principle of xi, xiii, 2, 7, 12–13 soils and see soils transport and 185, 190, 203 tree planting and see trees, planting/sequestration and types of 145–8 wetlands/coastal marshes and 146, 159, 233 shale gas 8, 208 Shell 27, 149, 199 shipping 8, 13, 22, 28, 36, 49, 114, 125, 137, 181, 182–3, 191, 194–5, 203–5, 217 Siberia 2, 46 smart appliances 128, 129, 132 smart charging 11, 13, 128, 129, 130, 139, 214, 219 soils xiii, 2, 5, 7, 12, 14, 33, 35, 36, 43, 55, 76, 109, 146, 149, 152, 156, 159, 163, 164, 165, 166, 168, 169, 171, 172, 175, 179, 203, 228 solar panels/solar photovoltaics (PV) 5, 6, 9, 12, 13, 21, 31, 32, 33, 49, 53, 68, 69, 71, 74, 79, 87, 91, 135, 136, 137, 178, 179, 188, 204, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 213, 214, 216, 217, 221, 222, 223, 224–5 Sony 185 Soviet Union 18, 40, 52, 67–8, 89 soya 95 Spain 69, 130, 137 sport utility vehicles (SUVs) 106, 121, 192 spruce xiv, 152, 170 standard of living xv, 1, 5, 8, 10, 11, 14, 229, 233 staycations 201 steel x–xi, 6, 7, 8, 26, 28, 29, 53, 66, 73, 80, 87, 116, 117, 118, 119, 171, 184, 194–5 Stern, Nicholas: The Economics of Climate Change 41, 63 subsidies ix, 9, 10, 14, 32, 50, 51, 52, 53, 69, 71, 76, 79, 80, 89, 102, 109, 110, 113, 116, 123, 140, 154, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 172, 180, 193, 196, 198, 209, 215, 221, 222, 228, 230 sugar cane 35, 71, 95, 197, 198 sulphur pollution 22, 25, 28, 78, 191, 194, 197, 230 sustainable economic growth xv, 10, 12, 14, 61, 83, 92, 94, 97, 98, 105, 227, 233 Taiwan 42 taxation xii, 11, 62, 71, 72, 76, 80, 87, 89, 90, 91, 92, 97, 101, 102, 103, 106–24, 126, 127, 130, 133, 147, 150, 151–2, 153–4, 157, 159, 165, 169, 170, 192–6, 197, 198, 199, 203, 232, 234 technological change 98, 127, 141, 174–5, 221 Thatcher, Margaret 17 Thompson, Emma 6 3D printing 175, 204 Thunberg, Greta 6, 205 tidal shocks 159 top-down treaty frameworks 13, 38–57, 80, 110, 119 tourism/holidays 6, 22, 36, 88, 94, 107, 114, 128, 156, 201, 204–5 transport, reinventing 181–205 aviation 195, 201, 203–5 see also air transport batteries and charging networks 185–90 biofuels 196–8 electric alternative 183–5 hydrogen and fuel cells 190–2 innovation, R&D and new infrastructures 199–200 internal combustion engine 181–2 net gain and offsets (reducing travel versus buying out your pollution) 201–3 oil 183–4 polluter pays/carbon tax 192–6 shipping 203–5 urban regulation and planning 198–9 vehicle standards 196–8 see also individual type of transport Treasury, UK 120–2 trees, planting/sequestration and xi, xiii, xiv, 2, 7, 13, 14, 33, 34, 45, 76, 85, 94–6, 146, 148, 149–51, 152–3, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 168, 169, 172, 179, 203, 231 trophy project syndrome 133 Trump, Donald 2, 8, 41, 42, 48, 89, 99, 103, 121 25 Year Environment Plan xiii, 153, 170, 179–80 UK 47, 69 agriculture and 164, 166, 167, 173 carbon emissions (2015) 30 carbon price and 115, 120 Climate Change Act (2008) 66, 74–7 coal, phasing out of 24–5, 60–1, 77, 208 Committee on Climate Change (CCC) x–xi, 7, 74–6, 120, 164, 166, 169, 217, 235 deindustrialisation and 72–4 80 per cent carbon reduction target by 2050 74 electricity and 206, 208, 218, 219, 224 Helm Review (‘The Cost of Energy Review’) (2017) ix, 120, 141, 200, 210, 212, 215, 217, 220, 238 infrastructure 125, 132–3, 134, 137, 139–40 net zero passed into law (2019) 66 sequestration and 145, 150, 153, 154, 155, 156 transport and 195–6, 197, 198 unilateralism and 58–9, 60–1, 65, 66, 69, 72–7, 80 unilateralism xi, 8, 10, 11, 25, 58–80, 83, 105, 106, 119, 125, 143, 144, 155, 164, 167, 197, 203, 227 in Europe 66–80 incentive problem and 58–60 morality and 62–6 no regrets exemplars and/showcase examples of how decarbonisation can be achieved 60–2 place for 80 way forward and 80, 83 United Nations xi, xii, 6, 10, 17, 37, 38, 118 carbon cartel, ambition to create a 39–40, 43, 45, 46–7, 56 climate treaty processes xi, 6, 10, 13, 17–18, 36, 37, 38–57, 59, 80, 110, 118, 119, 204–5 see also individual treaty name Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 17–18, 36, 38, 59 miracle solution and 50–1 origins and philosophy of 41 Security Council 46, 47, 57 United States 8, 74, 139, 206 agriculture in 175, 176, 197 carbon emissions 8, 29, 30 China and 27–8, 42, 118 coal and 2, 24, 28, 29, 208 economic imperialism 45 energy independence 50 gas and 8, 20, 23, 24, 29, 50, 208 oil production 40, 50, 193 pollution since 1990 29 unilateralism and 58, 59, 74 UN climate treaty process and 38, 40–1, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 53, 54, 56 universal service obligations (USOs) 92, 126, 131, 202 utilitarianism 41, 63–4, 108, 110 VAT 117, 119–20, 121, 122, 232 Vesta 69 Volkswagen 196–7 water companies 76, 214, 230 water pollution/quality xiv, 12, 22, 61, 76, 152, 153, 165, 169, 170, 171, 172, 175, 177, 178, 179, 180, 232 Wen Jiabao 53, 59 wetlands 159, 233 wildflower meadow 164, 184 wind power 5, 9, 12, 21, 31, 32, 33, 49, 53, 68, 69–70, 71, 74, 75, 76, 78, 79, 91, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 178, 188, 191, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 213, 214–15, 216, 217, 219, 221, 222 wood pellets 67, 217, 230 Woodland Trust 156, 158 World Bank 51 World Trade Organization (WTO) 52, 56, 118 World War I 183 World War II (1939–45) 78, 90, 92, 101, 106, 171 Xi Jinping 27, 41, 42 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS So much is now discussed, written and published about climate change that it is impossible to keep track of all the ideas and conversations that have influenced my understanding of the subject.


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Living in a Material World: The Commodity Connection by Kevin Morrison

addicted to oil, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, commoditize, commodity trading advisor, computerized trading, diversified portfolio, Doha Development Round, Elon Musk, energy security, European colonialism, flex fuel, food miles, Hernando de Soto, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kickstarter, Long Term Capital Management, new economy, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, price mechanism, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transaction costs, uranium enrichment, young professional

There is the conference of parties (Cop) for the UNFCCC and the member of parties (Mop) for the Kyoto Protocol. The reason for this is that the Mop delegates are from the countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which does not include the United States. The US delegates only participate in the Cop discussions. 170 | LIVING IN A MATERIAL WORLD 3. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fourth assessment on climate change throughout 2007 through draft and final reports on the various issues associated with global warming from the scientific basis to adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC was constantly in the news and added to the expectation that the Bali meeting would conclude with strong action on combating climate change. 4. The Marketing Association of the English Wine Industry – http://www. englishwineproducers.com/history.htm 5. The reference to Evelyn was taken from the Museum of London website – http://www.museumoflondon.org.uk/archive/exhibits/changing faces/ change/change1.htm.

It could even go into biomass to use for power generation. But it could be another ten years before there is a track record with the seeds consistently producing the desired oil and before the breeding techniques for the plant are fine-tuned around the world. The Energy and Resource Institute (Teri), the New Delhi-based research group headed by Dr Rajendra K. Pachauri, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is also conducting research on jatropha. ‘We should not be debating whether there is land for fuel or land for food, we should debate what areas are suitable for non-edible crops,’ said Dr Adholeya, director of biotechnology and management in Teri’s bioresources division. His office was prone to intermittent power cuts during our discussions, a regular occurrence across India due to prolonged power shortages.

The IEA said in its World Energy Outlook that carbon capture and storage is assumed not to be deployed before 2030 because of doubts about whether technical and cost challenges can be overcome. The report states that the greatest reductions in future US electric sector CO2 emissions are likely to come from applying carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to nearly all new coal-based power plants coming online after 2020. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s ‘Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage – Summary for policymakers and technical summary’ gives a breakdown of the volume of emissions from each sector. CLIMATE | 177 54. In 1900 the global annual water use per capita was 350 cubic metres. In 2000, that number had grown to 642 cubic metres, said John Dickerson in his speech ‘The Economic Paradox That Spawned A Compelling Investment Theme’, at the Case for Water Investing conference in 2007. 55.


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The End of Growth by Jeff Rubin

Ayatollah Khomeini, Bakken shale, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, British Empire, business cycle, call centre, carbon footprint, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, deglobalization, energy security, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, flex fuel, full employment, ghettoisation, global supply chain, Hans Island, happiness index / gross national happiness, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, illegal immigration, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, Kickstarter, McMansion, Monroe Doctrine, moral hazard, new economy, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce, working poor, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game

It’s easy to see why most climate change scientists worry that China’s ambitious coal consumption targets will throw off enough carbon emissions to cook the atmosphere and trigger cataclysmic climate change: it is already a world-leading carbon emitter. But as we’ll explore later on, before global warming spells the end of the world, those same climate change scientists need to ask where China is going to get all the coal it’s expecting to burn. To fulfill the carbon emission projections made by groups like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Chinese economy may need to burn through the coal supplies of several planets. A few doors west, India’s fuel demands are also bolting higher. Overall, world coal consumption, according to the IPCC, is forecast to double over the next two decades. That covers the demand side of the equation. But we still need to ask where we’ll get all this coal. As growing power shortages across the country will attest, China is already struggling to come up with the 3.7 billion tons of coal it burns each year.

And the mainstream scientific community is coming closer to Lovelock’s view that global warming could unleash a climactic Armageddon if immediate steps aren’t taken to reduce emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the United Nations in 1988, comprises thousands of scientists and is the largest publisher of peer-reviewed climate change research in the world. In 2007, the organization shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for increasing public knowledge about climate change and laying the groundwork to counteract such change. In its latest comprehensive assessment report from 2007, the IPCC warns that human-generated emissions are causing global temperatures to rise. An increase of 4 degrees Celsius in the next hundred years, they say, would create devastating consequences for humanity.

Two hundred years of spewing filth into the atmosphere has to have had consequences for the biosphere. At the same time, I’m not losing much sleep worrying about the worst-case scenarios from Lovelock or the IPCC. I find the IPCC’s assumptions for economic growth—and, more to the point, fuel demand—hard to swallow. In its forecasts, the IPCC takes a business-as-usual approach to resource consumption. But projections that model the future by extrapolating from the quantity of hydrocarbons we currently burn are implausible. The Achilles heel of the dire predictions for climate change is the computer modeling by IPCC scientists that assumes our hydrocarbon consumption will continue to increase at the same rate over the next few decades as it has in the past. Economic growth drives carbon emissions. When growth is shuffled to the back burner in a static economy, emissions will come down too, removing the need for stringent climate change policies.


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The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium by Martin Gurri

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Arthur Eddington, Ayatollah Khomeini, bitcoin, Black Swan, Burning Man, business cycle, citizen journalism, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collective bargaining, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, currency manipulation / currency intervention, dark matter, David Graeber, death of newspapers, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, facts on the ground, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, housing crisis, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, job-hopping, Mohammed Bouazizi, Nate Silver, Occupy movement, Port of Oakland, Republic of Letters, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, too big to fail, traveling salesman, University of East Anglia, urban renewal, War on Poverty, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, young professional

On November 19, 2009, someone who had hacked thousands of emails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, Britain, released them to the public on an obscure Russian server. The names on the emails belonged to the most eminent climatologists involved in global warming research, and included many of the leading contributors to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The release had a pointedly political purpose. A gathering of world leaders to coordinate policy on climate change was scheduled for December in Copenhagen. From the emails, an unflattering portrait emerged of the hierarchy of climatology, caught en famille. The scientists sounded vain, petty, intolerant, obsessed with media coverage, and abusive to outsiders. They often appeared clueless when it came to their own data sets and computer programs.

Fast Company, October 11, 2011. http://www.fastcompany.com/1788397/real-role-anonymous-occupy-wall-street. Chao, Loreta. “Twitter, Other Apps Disrupted in Venezuela.” Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2014. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303775504579397430033153284. Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2013. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/docs/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf. Cohen-Friedman, Naama. “Social activists: The revolution is here.” Ynetnews.com, July 30, 2011. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4102107,00.html. “Colleague defends ‘ClimateGate’ professor.” BBC, December 4, 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi /8396035.stm. Cottingham, Rob. “The Obama online campaign, by the numbers: quantifying the impact of social media in 2008.”

[206] Andy Borowitz, “Obama denies role in government,” The New Yorker, May 18, 2013, http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2013/05/obama-denies-role-in-government.html. [207] Screen shot from video, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSAKcKMncfY. [208] Screen shot of video, http://hellaoccupyoakland.org/occupy-oakland-forum-police-actions/ . [209] Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2013, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/docs/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf . [210] Will Wrigley, “Hurricane Sandy Survivors Demand Climate Change Action From Obama,” Huffington Post, February 11, 2013, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/11/hurricane-sandy-climate-change_n_2664563.html. [211] “Remarks by the President on Climate Change,” The White House, June 25, 2013, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/06/25/remarks-president-climate-change


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The Planet Remade: How Geoengineering Could Change the World by Oliver Morton

Albert Einstein, Asilomar, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, colonial rule, Colonization of Mars, Columbian Exchange, decarbonisation, demographic transition, Elon Musk, energy transition, Ernest Rutherford, germ theory of disease, Haber-Bosch Process, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Harrison: Longitude, John von Neumann, late capitalism, Louis Pasteur, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, orbital mechanics / astrodynamics, Philip Mirowski, planetary scale, plutocrats, Plutocrats, renewable energy transition, Scramble for Africa, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, Stewart Brand, Thomas Malthus

Marshall Institute, 154 germ theory of disease, 129 Germany: explosives industry, 190; geoengineering research, 159; nuclear industry, 17, 358; renewable energy (Energiewende), 19, 20, 106, 159; scientific research, 182 Gernsback, Hugo, 243 glaciers and ice: Arctic melting, 313, 362; and cloud brightening, 294–5, 336; and nuclear fallout, 44; protecting, 344–5, 371–2, 374; as record of earlier climates, 222–3, 227, 321, 344; and tracking climate change, 222–7; and volcanic eruptions, 86, 88 global cooling, 275–9 global warming: and counter-geoengineering, 341–2; ‘pause’ in, 3, 70, 108, 280; sulphur’s masking effect, 279–80; see also climate change Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 276 Goldsmith, Oliver, 83 Goodell, Jeff, 157 Gore, Al, 349 GPS, 118–19 Gran, Haaken Hasberg, 252 green movement: and carbon dioxide emissions, 141, 143; and CCS, 247; future scenarios, 351; and geoengineering, 28, 159, 261–2; influence on environmental policies, 19–20, 141; moderate green views on climate change, 135; and nuclear power, 16–17 ‘Greenfinger’ scenario, 352–4 greenhouse gases: and climate change, 65–71, 72–3; and farming, 224–5, 227; harm caused by those other than carbon dioxide, 146; historical atmospheric levels, 222–8; and ice ages, 231; see also carbon dioxide; methane; nitrous oxide; water vapour Greenland, 222, 342, 362, 371, 374 Grübler, Arnulf, 11 guano, 180 Haber, Fritz, 182, 190, 193, 202 Hadley Centre, 273 hail, 271 Hamblin, Jacob Darwin, 136, 309 Hamilton, Clive, 157, 248 Hampson, John, 278 Hansen, James, 90–2, 140, 276 Hardin, Garrett, 77–8 Harvard Forest, 97–8 Harvard University, 28 Havel, Václav, 351 Haywood, Jim, 293 HCFCs, 72, 146 health: effect of European ‘discovery’ of Americas on Native Americans, 227; and fossil fuels, 12, 16; germ theory of disease, 129; nitrogen pollution of water, 195–9; and nuclear power, 15–16, 45; and ozone layer, 49–50; vaccination programmes, 353; and veilmaking, 112, 281; see also air pollution Heard, Gerald, 41, 342 Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 296 Helin, Glo, 328 helium, 178 Hiroshima, 148, 190 holism, 77 Holmes, Arthur, 216 Holocene, 222–4, 226, 231, 236, 241 Hoskins, Brian, 69 House, Jo, 261 Hoyle, Fred, 278 human empire, 24–5, 125, 177–78, 209–10, 372 human prehistory, 229–31, 241–2 Hungary, 314 hurricanes, 284, 294–5, 295–6, 353 Huxley, Aldous, 41 Huxley, Julian, 313–14 Hyde, Roderick, 149, 151 hydrological cycle: future scenarios, 242, 362; and veilmaking, 114–18; workings of, 64, 67 hydropower, 3, 182 hydrosphere, 40 ice see glaciers and ice ice ages: 1960s and 1970s fear of human-generated, 275–8; artificially starting, 342–3; averting, 149, 278; and carbon dioxide in the oceans, 252–3, 254; and climate change, 231; as climate change phenomenon, 130; and greenhouse gases, 222–4; and human development, 230–1; next, 266–7, 277–8; enduring question of origins, 87–8, 98; and plant growth, 233–4; Younger Dryas, 226–7 ice–albedo feedback, 223, 276, 278, 342–3 IG Farben, 190 IMO see International Maritime Organization India: agriculture, 192; air pollution, 365; future scenarios, 364–6, 367–8; monsoons, 86, 364–6; population issues, 187; rainmaking schemes, 271; and veilmaking models, 121 Indonesia, 86–7 industrialization, 128, 177, 225–6, 228–9 infrared radiation, 65–6 Ingold, Tim, 57 interglacials, 222–4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 7, 140 internal combustion engine, 212 international agreements see air pollution: agreements; climate negotiations and agreements; nuclear weapons: treaties and test bans; UNFCCC International Energy Agency, 3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 246 International Maritime Organization (IMO), 282–3, 297–8 interstellar travel, 139, 150 Intertropical Convergence Zone, 293 IPCC see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Ireland, 127 iron fertilization, 252–9, 265 Israel, 16 James, William, 132 Jameson, Fredric, 310 JASON group, 136, 321 Jeanne-Claude, 344 Jefferson, Thomas, 127 Jesus Christ, 125 jet streams, 46–7 Jevons, Stanley, 180–1 Johnson, Lyndon B., 137, 139 Johnston, Harold, 51, 201 Jupiter, 37, 333 Kaempffert, Waldemar, 49, 314 Kármán, Theodore von, 136 Keeling, David, 75–6, 96, 98, 239–40 Keith, David: background, 150; death threats, 104; funds source, 28, 102, 156–7; and geoengineering, 101–2, 107, 149–50, 156–7, 160, 169, 286, 342, 358 Kennedy, John F., 59, 340 Kilimanjaro, Mount, 344–5 Kingsland, Sharon, 79 Kintisch, Eli, 157 Klein, Naomi, 225 Koch, Robert, 129 Krakatau, 86–7, 108 Kravitz, Ben, 113, 116–17 Kruger, Tim, 163 Kyoto conference (1997), 3 Kyoto protocol (2005), 140–1, 144, 145 Lackner, Klaus, 27–8 Langmuir, Irving, 269–70, 272, 295 Latham, John: career, 272–3, 283; cloud work, 268, 272–4, 283–4, 285–8, 294–5, 298–301, 323; home, 298 Latham, Mike, 268, 300 Latour, Bruno, 171, 271 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 148–51, 317, 319, 334, 339 Le Châtelier, Henri Louis, 182 Leith, Chuck, 317 Lenton, Tim, 290 Lesseps, Ferdinand de, 128 Levenson, Tom, 324 LeVier, Tony, 57 Levitt, Stephen, 154–5 Lewis, Simon, 227 Libby, Willard, 45–6 Liebig, Justus von, 178–9, 237, 251–2 lightning, 272, 299–301 lightning conductors, 112, 127 lime and liming, 250–1, 363, 371 lithosphere, 40 Livermore see Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Lobell, David, 236, 237, 238, 240 Locher, Fabien, 129 Long, Jane, 20 Lotka, Alfred, 75, 78–9, 175, 217–19 Lovell, Jim, 60 Lovelock, James, 75, 275, 278, 282, 287, 290 Lowell, Percival, 131, 132, 133, 139 McCarthy, Cormac, 309 MacCracken, Mike, 319, 327 MacCready, Paul, 299–300 MacDonald, Gordon, 136–7 McKibben, Bill, 125 Maddox, John, 204 Malthus, Thomas, 180, 185–6, 203 Manhattan Project, 42, 148, 312, 321 Marchetti, Cesare, 137, 246, 259 Mariner 9, 89 Mars: canals, 131–3; colonizing, 139, 140; craters, 322; expensive village on, 374; stratosphere, 37, 89 Martin, John, 252–4 Marx, Karl, 179–80, 205 Maryland, University of, 225 Masco, Joe, 310 Maslin, Mark, 227 Mauritius, 127 Mead, Margaret, 327 measles, 227 Mediterranean region, 116, 198, 230, 241, 375 Medwin, Thomas, 332 mending; 359, 372 mesosphere, 41 Meteorological Office, 293, 294 methane: and climate change, 65, 72; and farming, 224–5; historical atmospheric levels, 223; human responsibility for emissions, 72, 146; positive feedback due to, 241; see also natural gas Mexico, 90–1, 189, 190–1, 192 Mexico, Gulf of, 186, 195–6 Middle East, 284–5 the military, and asteroid impact work, 334–5, 339–41; and cabin ecology, 75; and geoengineering, 315; and climate modification. 158, 270; and cloud seeding. 270, 272; and geophysical warfare, 135–7; and nuclear energy, 16; and nuclear weapons, 42, 306, 308–9 mirrors, space-based, 149, 150–1 Mitchell, Edgar, 77 mitigation see adaptation and mitigation monsoons: future scenarios, 364–6, 367–8, 371; and geoengineering, 292; prehistoric, 241; and volcanic eruptions, 86, 115 Montreal protocol (1987), 53, 110, 143–4 moon: Clementine mission to, 334; craters, 322; Earth seen from, 60, 63, 65; planned human moonbases, 75; planned nuclear explosion on, 338, 339; appearance changed by volcanic eruptions on Earth, 86 Mooney, Pat, 23 More, Sir Thomas, 124, 127 Morrison, David, 328, 330–1 Mossop, S.

A 5 per cent chance is one in twenty: pretty close to the odds that, on throwing a pair of dice, you will get either a double six or snake eyes. Not likely, but a long way from unheard of. When I was told on reasonable authority that my risks of a cardiac event in the next fifteen years or so were about 6 per cent, I resolved to make some changes in the way I lived my life. A little later I actually managed to act on those resolutions. A straightforward reading of the latest assessment by the scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would suggest that the risks are higher than those I just gave; many scientists and almost all environmental activists would put them much higher. But if you think, as I do, that figures as low as 50 per cent and 5 per cent justify action, it doesn’t really matter for the purposes of this discussion if the figures are actually higher. Provided that threats to the world at large move you, you have already bought into the case for finding a way to act.

Colin and Lequéré, Corinne (2002) ‘Maximum Impacts of Future Reforestation or Deforestation on Atmospheric CO2’ Global Change Biology 8 1047–1052 Howe, Joshua P. (2014) Behind the Curve: Science and the Politics of Global Warming University of Washington Press Hoyle, Fred (1981) Ice: The Ultimate Catastrophe Continuum Hulme, Mike (2009) Why We Disagree About Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity Cambridge University Press Hulme, Mike (2014) Can Science Fix Climate Change? A Case Against Climate Engineering Polity Press Ingold, Tim (2000) ‘Globes and Spheres: The Topology of Environmentalism’ in The Perception of the Environment: Essays in Livelihood, Dwelling and Skill, Routledge IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – see http://www.climatechange2013.org/ IPCC (2014a) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – see http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/ IPCC (2014b) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change – see http://mitigation2014.org/ Jessee, E. Jerry (2014) ‘A Heightened Controversy: Nuclear Weapons Testing, Radioactive Tracers, and the Dynamic Atmosphere’ in Toxic Airs: Body, Place, and Planet in Historical Perspective eds James R. Fleming and Ann Johnson, University of Pittsburgh Press Johnston, Harold (1984) ‘Human Effects on the Global Atmosphere’ Annual Review of Physical Chemistry 35 481–505 Jones, Andy, Haywood, Jim and Boucher, Olivier (2009) ‘Climate Impacts of Geoengineering Maritime Stratocumulus Clouds’ Journal of Geophysical Research doi: 10.1029/2008JD011450 Jones, Andy et al. (2013) ‘The Impact of Abrupt Suspension of Solar Radiation Management (Termination Effect) in Experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)’ Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50762 Keeling, Charles D. (1998) ‘Rewards and Penalties of Monitoring the Earth’ Annual Reviews of Energy and the Environment 23 25–82 Keith, David W. (2000a) ‘Geoengineering the Climate: History and Prospect’ Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 25 245–284 Keith, David W. (2000b) ‘The Earth is Not Yet an Artifact’ IEEE Technology and Society Magazine 19 25–28 Keith, David W. (2010) ‘Photophoretic Levitation of Engineered Aerosols for Geoengineering’ PNAS 107 16428–16431 Keith, David W. (2013) A Case for Climate Engineering MIT Press Keith, David W., Duren, Riley and MacMartin, Douglas G. (2014) ‘Field Experiments on Solar Geoengineering: Report of a Workshop Exploring a Representative Research Portfolio’ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 372 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0175 Keith, David W. and MacMartin, Douglas G. (2015) ‘A Temporary, Moderate and Responsive Scenario for Solar Geoengineering’ Nature Climate Change doi: 10.1038/nclimate2493 Khan, Ehsan et al. (2001) Response Options to Limit Rapid or Severe Climate Change: Assessment of Research Needs US Department of Energy King, Paul – see May, James Kingsland, Sharon E. (1994) ‘Economics and Evolution: Alfred James Lotka and the Economy of Nature’ in Natural Images in Economic Thought: ‘Markets Read in Tooth and Claw’ ed Philip Mirowski, Cambridge University Press Kingsland, Sharon E. (1995) Modeling Nature: Episodes in the History of Population Ecology Chicago University Press Kintisch, Eli (2010) Hack the Planet John Wiley and sons Klein, Naomi (2014) This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate Simon & Schuster (2014) Kravitz, Ben et al. (2013) ‘Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)’ Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50646 Kravitz, Ben et al. (2014) ‘A Multi-Model Assessment of Regional Climate Disparities Caused by Solar Geoengineering’, Environmental Research Letters 9 doi: 10.1088/1748–9326/9/7/074013 Kump, Lee R. et al. (2013) The Earth System (3rd edition) Pearson Kunzig, Robert and Broecker, Wallace S. (2008) Fixing Climate: The Story of Climate Science – and How to Stop Global Warming Profile Lamb, Hubert Horace (1971) ‘Climate-Engineering Schemes to Meet a Climatic Emergency’ Earth-Science Reviews 7 87–95 Lamb, Hubert Horace (1972) Climate: Present, Past and Future Methuen Lane, Lee et al. (2007) Workshop Report on Managing Solar Radiation NASA/CP-2007-214558 Langmuir, Charles H. and Broecker, Wally (2012) How to Build a Habitable Planet: The Story of Earth from the Big Bang to Humankind Princeton University Press Latham, John (1990) ‘Control of Global Warming’ Nature 347 339–340 Latham, John et al. (2008) ‘Global Temperature Stabilization via Controlled Albedo Enhancement of Low-Level Maritime Clouds’ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 366 3969–3987 Latham, John et al. (2014) ‘Marine Cloud Brightening: Regional Applications’ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 372 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0053 Latour, Bruno (2011) ‘Love Your Monsters’ Breakthrough Journal 2 21–28 Lauer, Axel (2009) ‘Assessment of Near-Future Policy Instruments for Oceangoing Shipping: Impact on Atmospheric Aerosol Burdens and the Earth’s Radiation Budget’ Environmental Science and Technology 43 5592–5598 Leach, Gerald (1976) Energy and Food Production IPC Science and Technology Press Lem, Stansilaw (1986) One Human Minute (translated by Catherine S.


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The Ones We've Been Waiting For: How a New Generation of Leaders Will Transform America by Charlotte Alter

"side hustle", 4chan, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, carbon footprint, clean water, collective bargaining, Columbine, corporate personhood, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, Donald Trump, double helix, East Village, ending welfare as we know it, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, gig economy, glass ceiling, Google Hangouts, housing crisis, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job-hopping, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, Lyft, mandatory minimum, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, mass incarceration, McMansion, medical bankruptcy, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, obamacare, Occupy movement, passive income, pre–internet, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, Snapchat, TaskRabbit, too big to fail, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, unpaid internship, We are the 99%, white picket fence, working poor, Works Progress Administration

., 22 Hogg, David, 41, 247 Houlahan, Chrissy, 268, 270 Howe, Neil, xiv Hultgren, Randy, 206, 231, 242 Hurricane Harvey, 193 Hurricane Katrina, 43 Hurricane Maria, 225 Hurricane Sandy, 129 Hurst, Chris, 212 identity politics, 60–61 immigration, 160, 254, 279–80 income inequality deregulation and privatization and, 219 in 1920s, 216–17, 219 Ocasio-Cortez and, 25 parenting and, 35 Reagan’s policies and, 30 Indigenous Environmental Network, 182 individual mandate, Affordable Care Act, 108, 110 Indivisible resistance, 180, 204–7 Inhofe, James, 159 Instagram, 273 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 190 International Indigenous Youth Council, 182 internet, 55, 56, 57 See also social media intersectionality, 199 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 190 iPhone, 55, 57 iPod, 57 Iraq invasion, 67 Iraq War. See War on Terror Isaacson, Walter, 55 Iweala, Uzodinma, 4 Jackson, Jesse, 119 Jefferson, Thomas, xiii, 200–201 Jones, Eric, 140 Journal of Social Psychology, 41 Justice Democrats, 209 Kavanaugh, Brett, 203 Kennedy, Caroline, 87 Kennedy, John F., xiii, 29, 74 Kennedy, Ted, 87, 94, 107, 249 Kerry, John, 76 Keystone XL pipeline, 158, 181–82 kidnappings, 36 Kids These Days (Harris), 35 Kim, Andy, 111 Kim Jong Un, 254 King, Coretta Scott, 195 King, Martin Luther, Jr., xiii, 29–30 King, Steve, 197 Kinsley, Michael, 32, 285 Kinzinger, Adam, 158 Klein, Joe, 86 Koch brothers, 124, 131, 149, 154–55 Kushner, Jared, xvii Lakota Sioux, 181–82 Lanza, Adam, 147 latchkey kids, 33 Lauer, Matt, 4 Lawrence, John A., 276 Lazerson, Marvin, 46 Lean In (Sandberg), 153–54 Lehman Brothers, 93 Lepore, Jill, 219 Lesser, Eric, xxi, 104, 132, 141–42, 153–57 elected to Massachusetts State Senate, 111, 141 Obama’s 2004 Democratic National Convention speech and, 81 on Obama’s leadership style, 112 as special assistant to David Axelrod, 105–9 as staffer for Obama’s first presidential campaign, 83–84, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90 trans-state railroad championed by, 141–42 “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” (Romney), 104 leveraged buyouts, 28–29 Levin, Ezra, 124–25 Indivisible resistance and, 180, 204–5 2012 presidential election and, 170–71, 172–73, 176, 178–80 Lieberman, Joe, 107 Lincoln, Abraham, xiii Litman, Amanda, 209–12 Logan, Eric, 144–45, 286 Londrigan, Betsy Dirksen, 241 Look Who’s Talking (film), 33 Love, Mia, 155–56, 158, 264 Lovett, Jon, 111 Lucas, Quinton, 135 Lumumba, Chokwe Antar, 223 Luria, Elaine, 270 Lyft, 99 Mackler, Camille, 202 McBath, Lucy, 268 McCain, John, xiii, 90, 147, 206–7 McCain, Meghan, 260 McCarthy, Kevin, 155 McCaskill, Claire, 87 McChrystal, Stanley, 71 McConnell, Mitch, xv, 51, 147, 277 McDonald, Laquan, 121 Mckesson, DeRay, 171, 172 Mad, 285 Make the Road New York, 202 Malcolm X, 29–30 Mallory, Tamika, 199–200 Mannheim, Karl, xiv March for Our Lives, 247 March for Science, 204 Marcinko, Richard, 14 marijuana issue, 160 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, 293 Markey, Ed, 281 Martin, Trayvon, 118 mass shootings Columbine High School shooting, 27 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, 293 Parkland, Florida, shooting, 41, 247 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, 147 Virginia Tech shooting, 53 Mast, Brian, 158 Me Generation.

“It all depends on one question: Will the young people of the world quietly watch as everything unravels around us, or will we decide to unite and set humanity on a better course?” They had reason to be dramatic: in 2018, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report that warned that “there is no historical precedent” for the economic transformation needed to prevent global temperatures from rising to catastrophic levels; just half a degree, they warned, could cost millions of lives. Sunrise wasn’t alone. Young people all over the world were realizing that the adults weren’t going to make their governments address climate change—so they would have to do it themselves. In 2018, a few months after the release of the IPCC report, a soft-spoken fifteen-year-old Swedish girl with Asperger’s syndrome named Greta Thunberg gave an electrifying speech at the annual United Nations climate talks in Poland that excoriated adult leaders for failing to act boldly to prevent climate catastrophe.

., 31, 53, 71, 75–76, 102 Buttigieg, Pete, xv, xxi, 3–8, 132, 142–45, 282–87 academic accomplishments of, 7–8 addresses Women’s March, 198 announces presidential candidacy, 287 black community and, 144–45 childhood of, 5–7 digital revolution and, 61–62 economic development initiatives of, 143–44 elected mayor of South Bend, 143 enlistment and service in military of, 73–77 essay on Bernie Sanders written by, 7–8 future of Democratic party and, 289–91 generational argument for presidential candidacy of, 284–85 at Harvard, 3–5, 8 marriage of, 146 as mayor of South Bend, 143–45 media appearances of, 283–84 moderate views and personality of, 285–86 Muslim travel ban protests and, 202 9/11 terrorist attacks and, 3–4 Ocasio-Cortez and, 290 personality of, 4–5, 6 policing and, 144 presidential campaign of, 284–87 sexuality of, 7, 145–46 on socialism, 218 technocratic solutions embraced by, 143 work on Obama 2008 presidential campaign, 85–86 BuzzFeed, 52 cancel culture, 37 capitalism, 213, 214–15, 216, 221 Carlson, Tucker, 222 Carr, Justin, 127 Carter, Lee, 223 Carter, Michael, 216–17, 220–21, 228 Casten, Sean, 241 Castile, Philandro, 121 cell phones, 55, 57 Chadwick, Sarah, 247 Chakrabarti, Saikat, 209, 222, 279–80, 281 Chetty, Raj, 137 child safety, 36–38 China, 47 Chrysler, 102, 103–4, 105 Churchill, Winston, 151 Cisneros, Gil, 270 Citizens United decision, 114 Civilian Conservation Corps, 217 civil rights movement, 29 The Class of ’74: Congress after Watergate and the Roots of Partisanship (Lawrence), 276 Clean Power Plan, 196 climate change, 31, 157–59 Crenshaw and, 254 Curbelo and, 157–58 Green New Deal and, 191, 273–75, 278–79 hurricane frequency and intensity and, 43 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on, 190 Paris Climate Agreement, United States withdrawal from, xvi, 158, 195, 258 Republicans and, 157–59 Stefanik and, 157–58 student protests and, 190–91 Sunrise Movement and, 189–90, 191 Thunberg speeches on, 190 Trump’s views on, 195–96 Climate Solutions Caucus, 157–59 Clinton, Bill, xvi, 27, 30–31, 106, 169, 249 balanced budget of, 31 crime bill of, 30–31 earned income tax credit and, 30 Clinton, Hillary, 86–87, 106, 166, 167, 169–70, 234–35 CNN, 172, 173, 175, 242 coaches, 51 Coakley, Martha, 107 Cobb, Jelani, 119 Cohen, Ben, 115 Cohen, Michael, 252, 261 Colbert, Stephen, 266, 284, 288 colleges/universities administrators hired by, increase in, 50–51 college process and, 47 cut in funding for public universities, 50 discrimination claims related to admissions criteria, 47–48 increase in number of students attending, 47–48 international student enrollment, 47 race as factor in admissions process, 48 reasons for increase in cost of, 50–51 student enrollment and, 50 student loan debt and, 44–52 Collins, Susan, 206–7 Columbine High School shooting, 27 communism, 213 Congress, 196–98 age of members, during Trump presidency, 196–97 freshman class of 2018, 265–81 out of touch with changes in American society, 196–98 2018 elections, 226–45 Watergate babies, 276 Consumer Financial Protection Board (CFPB), 194–95 Costello, Ryan, 264 Couric, Katie, 4, 53 Crazy Horse, 181 credit default swaps, 28–29 Crenshaw, Dan, xxi, 13–14 belief in War on Terror of, 66–67 campaign for and election to House of Representatives, 250–52 childhood of, 13–14 loses eye in IED blast on battle damage assessment (BDA) mission, 65–66 medals received by, 66 Navy SEAL career of, 63–66 9/11 terrorist attacks and, 13 on outrage culture, 252 on ROTC scholarship to Tufts University, 14 on Trump and Trump’s policies, 252–57 2012 presidential election and, 173–75, 177–78 Crenshaw, Kimberlé, 199 Crenshaw, Tara, 251 crime bill of 1994 (Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act), 30–31 Crow, Jason, 270 crowd-sourced collaboration, 55 Crowley, Joe, 224, 226, 228, 229 Cruz, Ted, xviii, 147 Curbelo, Carlos, 155–57, 258 bipartisanship of, 161 climate change and, 157–58 defeated in reelection bid, 2018, 264 elected to House of Representatives, 155–56 immigration legislation sponsored by, 160 reelected to House of Representatives, 2016, 262 on Trump and Trump’s policies, 262–64 2012 presidential election and, 169 youth of, 156 DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program), 195, 263 Dakota Access Pipeline, 181–82 Davidson, Pete, 251, 253 Day Without Immigrants, 204 Dean, Howard, 82, 86, 90 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, 195, 263 DeGroot, Jake, 117 democratic socialism.


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On the Future: Prospects for Humanity by Martin J. Rees

23andMe, 3D printing, air freight, Alfred Russel Wallace, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, Benoit Mandelbrot, blockchain, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, decarbonisation, demographic transition, distributed ledger, double helix, effective altruism, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, global village, Hyperloop, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Johannes Kepler, John Conway, life extension, mandelbrot fractal, mass immigration, megacity, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, quantitative hedge fund, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart grid, speech recognition, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanislav Petrov, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, supervolcano, technological singularity, the scientific method, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Walter Mischel, Yogi Berra

Doubling of CO2, if all other aspects of the atmosphere were unchanged, would cause 1.2 degrees (centigrade) of warming, averaged over the Earth—this is a straightforward calculation. But what is less well understood are associated changes in water vapour, cloud cover, and ocean circulation. We don’t know how important these feedback processes are. The fifth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2013, presented a spread of projections, from which (despite the uncertainties) some things are clear. In particular, if annual CO2 emissions continue to rise unchecked we risk triggering drastic climate change—leading to devastating scenarios resonating centuries ahead, including the initiation of irreversible melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica, which would eventually raise sea levels by many metres.

See also computers; internet infrastructure investment, 28 infrastructure planning, 45 Inheritors of the Earth (Thomas), 74 inorganic intelligences, 151, 152–53, 159, 169–70. See also intelligent robots insects as food, 25 intelligence: bottlenecks to development of life with, 155–56, 158; posthuman, 169–70, 194; of scientists, 202–3. See also AI (artificial intelligence); aliens, intelligent; inorganic intelligences intelligent design: biological, 196–98; technological, 178 intelligent robots, 8, 152–53. See also inorganic intelligences Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 39, 40, 58 International Atomic Energy Agency, 218 international institutions, 10, 32, 218–19 International Space Station, 140, 146 international tensions, 100 International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), 54 internet: leveling global education and health, 83–84, 220–21; national and religious divisions on, 100; security on, 220. See also information technology (IT); social media internet of things, 104 interstellar travel, 8, 79, 154 invasive species, 74 in vitro fertilisation (IVF), 67, 68 Iranian nuclear weapons programme, 20 iris recognition, 84–85 James Webb Space Telescope, 137 jobs: declining wages and security, 91; disrupted by technology, 5; in personal services, 96–97; resurgence of arts and crafts, 98; shortened working week, 97–98; taken over by machines, 91–94 Juncker, Jean-Claude, 28 Kardashev, Nikolai, 156 Kasparov, Garry, 86, 87–88 Keeling, Charles, 38 Keeling, Ralph, 38 Kennedy, John F., 17 Kepler, Johannes, 131 Kepler project, 131–32 Khrushchev, Nikita, 17 kidneys sold for transplant, 71 killer robots, 101–2 The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Our World from Scratch (Dartnell), 217 Kolmogorov, Andrey, 172 Kolmogorov complexity, 172, 174, 193 Kuhn, Thomas, 205 Kurzweil, Ray, 81, 108 Large Hadron Collider, 206–7 Lee Sedol, 88 Lehrer, Tom, 17 Leonov, Alexey, 138 life: Earth as only known home of, 121; habitable planets and, 125, 126–27, 133, 135–36; origin of, 128–29, 135–36; universe fine-tuned for, 186, 197–98.

It’s important to note that the ‘headline figure’ of a global temperature increase is just an average; what makes the effect more disruptive is that the rise is faster in some regions and can trigger drastic shifts in regional weather patterns. The climate debate has been marred by too much blurring between science, politics, and commercial interests. Those who don’t like the implications of the IPCC projections have rubbished the science rather than calling for better science. The debate would be more constructive if those who oppose current policies recognise the imperative to refine and firm up the predictions—not just globally but, even more important, for individual regions. Scientists in Cambridge and California13 are pursuing a so-called Vital Signs project, which aims to use massive amounts of climatic and environmental data to find which local trends (droughts, heat waves, and such) are the most direct correlates of the mean temperature rise.


pages: 614 words: 176,458

Meat: A Benign Extravagance by Simon Fairlie

agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, Boris Johnson, call centre, carbon footprint, Community Supported Agriculture, deindustrialization, en.wikipedia.org, food miles, Food sovereignty, Haber-Bosch Process, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Just-in-time delivery, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, megacity, Northern Rock, Panamax, peak oil, refrigerator car, scientific mainstream, sexual politics, stem cell, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 4.2, Cambridge University Press, 2001. IPCC (1995), Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. Working Group 1. Summary for Policymakers. International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UNEP, 1995. 72 Stern, N (2007), The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge, p 223. 73 IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Chapter 2,pp 140-142 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf 74 DEFRA (2008), UK Climate Change Sustainability Indicator: 2006 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Final Figure,http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/2008/080131a.htm; EIA (2008), Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the US 2008, ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057308.pdf; Padma, T V, India and Climate Change: Facts and Figures, Sci Dev Net, 31 August 2006, http://www.scidev.net/en/climate-change-and-energy/mitigation/features/india-climate-change-facts-and-figures.html 75 Farmers Weekly (2007), ‘Milk Yield Holds the Key to Lower Carbon Footprint’, Farmers Weekly, 20 August 2007. 76 FAO (2006), op cit 77 IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC (Introduction) eds B Metz et al, Cambridge University Press, 2007, pp 103-5. 78 Ibid., p 104. 79 Goodland, Robert (1998), ‘Environmental Sutainability in Agriculture: Bioethical and Religious Arguments Against Carnivory’, in J Lemons et al (eds), Ecological Sustainability and Integrity, Kluwer, 1998, pp 235-65. 80 Goodland, R and Anhang, J (2009), Livestock and Climate Change: What if the Key Actors in Climate Change are Cows, Pigs and Chickens?

Jonathon Porritt used it in advertisements for Compassion in World Farming; the Green Party MEP, Caroline Lucas, cited it in speeches and radio interviews (though after I had telephoned her about it, she did acknowledge publicly that the figure had been challenged). And in September 2008, Rajendra Pachauri, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, endorsed the 18 per cent figure at a talk in London hosted (once again) by Compassion in World Farming. The IPCC is the Nobel prize-winning body of scientists whose word is normally taken as gospel on matters relating to global warming. Virtually all of its statistics are hedged by provisos, subject to intensive peer review and backed up by volumes of impenetrable technical data, so it was strangely cavalier of Mr Pachauri to be volunteering a figure which far exceeded most other estimates made by reputable scientific organizations, including the IPCC itself, which claims that the whole of agriculture only contributes 10–12 per cent of global GHG emissions.7 The World Resources Institute’s global warming flow chart, which is based on 1996 IPCC statistics, allocates just 5.1 per cent of global greenhouse gases to ‘livestock and manure’.8 This discrepancy does not necessarily mean that one figure is wrong and the other right.

Rasse et al conclude from their experiments that ‘the relative root contribution to SOC has an average value 2.4 times that of shoots’. D Rasse et al (2005), ‘Is Soil Carbon Mostly Root Carbon? Mechanisms for a Specific Stabilization’, Plant and Soil, 269, pp 341-56. 43 IPCC (2000), Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Fsr/?src=/Climate/ipcc/land_use/index.htm 44 Fisher, M J et al (1994), Carbon Storage by Introduced Deep-Rooted Grasses in the South American Savannas’, Nature, vol 371, 15 September 1994. Actually the highest figure reported was 11.73 ± 2.58, but the IPCC cite the top end of the standard error range. 45 Davidson et al (1995), ‘Pasture Soils as Carbon Sink’, Nature, Vol 376, 10 August 1995. 46 Pimentel, D et al (2005), Organic and Conventional Farming Systems: Environmental and Economic Issues, Cornell University, 2005. 47 Yeomans, op cit.32, 146. 48 Jones, C (2007), Australian Soil Carbon Accreditation Scheme, Renewable Soil.com, 29 March 2007, http://renewablesoil.com/australian-soil-carbon-accreditation-scheme.html 49 IPCC (2000), op cit. 43. 50 The information about Christine Jones’ work is culled from the following documents, available on www.amazingcarbon.com: Jones, C (2008), ‘Liquid Carbon Pathway Unrecognized’, Australian Farm Journal, 1 July 2008; Porteous, James and Smith, Frank (2008), Farming, A Climate Change Solution, ECOS (Australia) Feb/Mar 2008; Jones, C (2007), op cit.; Jones, C (2006a), Carbon and Catchments.


pages: 406 words: 120,933

The Great Lakes Water Wars by Peter Annin

clean water, Donald Trump, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), off grid, Ronald Reagan, urban sprawl

Earth Science Communications Team, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, “Global Temperature,” https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/, accessed December 20, 2017. 5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Summary for Policy-makers,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland (2013), 23. 6. IPCC, Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment, Geneva, Switzerland (2014), 6. 7. IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Geneva, Switzerland (2001), 12. 8. J. L. McDermid et al., State of Climate Change Science in the Great Lakes Basin: A Focus on Climatological, Hydrological and Ecological Effects, report of the Ontario Climate Consortium and the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (October 2015), 2. 9.

But if current global emission trends continue, this century could see average global surface temperatures rise by 3.7 degrees Celsius, (nearly 7°F), according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s leading climate institution.5 That would drive transformative environmental change throughout the globe, creating a very different world from what we have today. As scientists have long predicted, sea levels have already begun to rise, global ice cover has decreased, glaciers have receded, storms have become more severe, as have droughts. What’s more, the IPCC warned that human-caused climate change has already affected the global water cycle. “In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality.”6 The IPCC has long predicted that tension over water will reach new heights during this century.

See also benefit standard India, 7 Indiana Compact adoption, 239 Dyer case, 255–56, 265 Fort Wayne, 272 Lowell diversion proposal, 153–67 Mud Creek Irrigation District and, 175–78, 182 Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin, and, 142 St. John, 272 Valparaiso, 272 “water personality” of, 223 indigenous First Nations and Native American people, 13, 135–36, 186–87, 283 Injerd, Daniel, 12, 52, 101–8, 115–16, 175, 238, 283, 286, 291, 298 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 42 Interior Department, US, 9 International Agreement. See also Annex Implementing Agreements adoption of, 242, 301 signing of, 19–20 water future and, 301 working group and, 221–22 International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, 31, 33 International Joint Commission (IJC) blue-ribbon report, 207–8 creation of, 12 on diversion threat, 12–15 on Illinois diversion, 99–100 on Long Lac and Ogoki, 128, 133 “Plan 2014” (IJC), 55–57 on St.


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Business Lessons From a Radical Industrialist by Ray C. Anderson

addicted to oil, Albert Einstein, banking crisis, business cycle, carbon footprint, centralized clearinghouse, clean water, cleantech, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, dematerialisation, distributed generation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fear of failure, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invisible hand, late fees, Mahatma Gandhi, market bubble, music of the spheres, Negawatt, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old-boy network, peak oil, renewable energy credits, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, supply-chain management, urban renewal, Y2K

It makes you wonder, what part of unsustainable do they not understand? The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently issued a report that lays the blame for global climate disruption at our feet with a more than 90 percent certainty. They said, “Greenhouse gas forcing has very likely (>90 percent) caused most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years. This conclusion takes into account … the possibility that the response to solar forcing could be underestimated by climate models. Many climate doubters and global warming deniers have raised some serious questions about how the IPCC came up with that 90 percent figure—indeed, about how they decided on anything at all. And the thing is, perversely, I find I am in agreement with them, but for very different reasons. Here’s an amazing revelation from studying the IPCC’s methods. Government representatives were allowed to vote on and revise the IPCC summaries, no matter what the data said.

Government representatives were allowed to vote on and revise the IPCC summaries, no matter what the data said. As a direct result, China (think coal) and Saudi Arabia (oil) got to veto anything they didn’t like. The United States (think do nothing) also had line-by-line veto power. You can imagine what happened in a swamp like that. The deniers call this “politicized science” and say that the IPCC summaries were just one big exaggeration, when in fact the reverse is true. They are almost surely understated. It would be like giving a convicted thief a say over the wording of the laws that govern theft. You can bet the final text would go light on thievery. So goes the politicized UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The doubters also believe the IPCC report seriously overstates the impact of human emissions on the climate.

Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution Hay, Buddy Hendrix, Dan Henley, William Ernest, “Invictus” Hewlett-Packard hope Hurricane Katrina hurricanes hybrid truck engines hydrocarbon economy hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants hydropower industry ideal comfort zone, mental exercise ideas, sources of incineration India industrial engineering industrial revolution damage from new one, gathering speed training of engineers with skills appropriate for the first industries American, disappearance of most energy-intensive perverse incentives to industry (as institution), power of, to effect environmental change Ingram, Billy innovation, derived from nature, Interface’s Intek textile factory Intel Interface awards given to charts of sustainability operations compensation system at consulting arm culture of customer base customers who wanted to know “what Interface is doing for the environment” emissions from, at start of sustainability program environmental task force founding of green and lean influence of its business model on other companies profitability of, playing with the old rules profit record since 1996 proud moments at renewable energy initiative successes since 1996 in climbing Mount Sustainability sustainability project transformation of, as a business-school case study transportation modalities of product (truck, rail, etc.) use of petroleum-derived raw materials vision for 2020 waste-control program Interface-Americas division Interface Architectural Resources Interface Cool Fuel Card Interface Environmental Foundation Interface Europe Interface Flooring Systems InterfaceFLOR InterfaceRAISE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Truck interstate highway system investments accounting standards for assessing underperforming Iranian revolution (1972) Iran-Iraq war Iraq war IRS Isdell, Neville ISO 14001 certification Jackson, Wes Johnson, Huey Johnson Foundation Jones, Stuart Jordan, Slug Just carpet Kennedy, John F. Kohl’s Kraft Foods Kyoto Protocol labels, environmental labor efficiency (of the past) LaGrange, Georgia landfill energy project LaGrange, Georgia, Interface factory Laljani, Karin landfills methane gas from running out of Land Institute Lash, Jonathan LaValle, Joyce laws of thermodynamics Lay, Ken leadership lack of, in Washington need for role of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Green Building Rating System (LEED) leasing Lehman Brothers Leopold, Aldo Levy, Frank Lewis, Carlton Lietaer, Bernard life cycle assessment (LCA) of environmental impact Liveris, Andrew local government, innovative energy-saving programs of local smarts log cabins Lost Valley, N.C., country retreat love Lovins, Amory Winning the Oil Endgame Lukken, Jeff Maine, Interface facilities in Mali management, top-down man-made materials, must not increase in nature Mantle, Bob manufacturing, abandonment of, in U.S.


pages: 293 words: 81,183

Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Make a Difference by William MacAskill

barriers to entry, basic income, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Cal Newport, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, effective altruism, en.wikipedia.org, end world poverty, experimental subject, follow your passion, food miles, immigration reform, income inequality, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, job automation, job satisfaction, Lean Startup, M-Pesa, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Nate Silver, Peter Singer: altruism, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, randomized controlled trial, self-driving car, Skype, Stanislav Petrov, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, universal basic income, women in the workforce

First, it shows that the debate over whether man-made climate change is happening is pretty irrelevant when it comes to what we ought to do. In these debates, one group points to the scientific consensus that man-made climate change is happening while the other argues that the jury is still out. To be clear, there really is near consensus among scientists that man-made climate change is happening. A UN-backed panel of thousands of climate scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that “it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century,” where they define “extremely likely” to mean at least 95 percent probability. One article reviewed four thousand papers that discuss global warming and reported that “97.1 percent endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.”

It doesn’t consider what the consequences would be if our best-guess estimates are wrong. This is especially important because the climate is an incredibly complex system that is difficult to predict, so we can’t be sure that our estimates are correct. When climate scientists make estimates about temperature rise, they have to acknowledge that there is a small but significant risk of a temperature increase that’s much greater than 2 to 4ºC. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gives more than 5 percent probability to temperature rises greater than 6ºC, and even acknowledges a small risk of catastrophic climate change, of 10ºC or more. To be clear, I’m not saying that this is at all likely, in fact, it’s very unlikely. But it is possible, and if it were to happen, the consequences would be disastrous, potentially resulting in civilizational collapse. It’s difficult to give a meaningful answer to the question of how bad that would be, but if we think it’s potentially catastrophic, then we need to revise our evaluation of the importance of mitigating climate change.

In the summer of 2013, President Barack Obama referred to climate change as “the global threat of our time.” He’s not alone in this opinion. The US secretary of state, John Kerry, called climate change “the greatest challenge of our generation”; former Senate majority leader Harry Reid has said that “climate change is the worst problem facing the world today,” and the cochair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Thomas F. Stocker called climate change “the greatest challenge of our time.” Are Obama and these other commentators correct? Is climate change the most important cause in the world today—a greater global priority than extreme poverty? How could we decide? A lot of people have asked these questions. Though foundations and social entrepreneurs often talk about trying to maximize their impact, they normally just focus on maximizing their impact within the cause or causes that they’re personally passionate about (like poverty, or education, or climate change), rather than thinking strategically about which causes they should focus on.


pages: 330 words: 91,805

Peers Inc: How People and Platforms Are Inventing the Collaborative Economy and Reinventing Capitalism by Robin Chase

Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Andy Kessler, banking crisis, barriers to entry, basic income, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, business climate, call centre, car-free, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, commoditize, congestion charging, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, decarbonisation, different worldview, do-ocracy, don't be evil, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Ferguson, Missouri, Firefox, frictionless, Gini coefficient, hive mind, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Lyft, means of production, megacity, Minecraft, minimum viable product, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, openstreetmap, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, peer-to-peer model, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, TaskRabbit, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, Turing test, turn-by-turn navigation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, Zipcar

“Vint Cerf Pt. 1,” The Colbert Report, July 15, 2014, http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/videos/08a2dg/vint-cerf-pt—1. 16. Gordon Rosenblatt, “Google’s Biggest Competitor Is Amazon,” Medium.com, October 18, 2014, https://medium.com/@gideonro/the-google-amazon-slugfest-8a3a07a1d6dd. 17. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report,” November 1, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr. 18. World Bank, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided,” report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, November 1, 2012. 19. Ibid. 20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.” 21. Jim Robbins, “Building an Ark for the Anthropocene,” New York Times, September 27, 2014. 22. “London Congestion Charge,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_congestion_charge. 23.

Since then most of my talks, writing, consulting, and start-ups have focused on getting us closer to a more sustainable world. My mind, though, was truly opened when I read the much talked-about World Bank report “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided.” The World Bank is a very conservative financial institution, very capitalistic, very market-driven. Its report was compiled from the same source materials consulted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its November 2014 synthesis report and was reviewed by the same top scientists.17 The top-line finding: Even if every country does everything it has promised to do in order to reduce CO2 emissions, we are on track for a 4°C (7°F) increase in average global temperature by 2100.18 Since I had no idea what such an increase actually implies, I decided to search historical climate temperatures to see what the world was like when it was 4°C cooler than it is now and get a sense of what changes such a shift had already brought about.

See Regulations Hackathons, 39–40 Hagel, John, 178 Hansen, James, 232 Hardware, in-vehicle, 14 Haselmayer, Sascha, 170–171, 173 Heiferman, Scott, 238–239 HelloWallet, 41 HelpAround, 82–83 Heminway, Mark, 15–16 Hemmesch, Annie, 82–83 Hilton Hotels, 74 Hives, as innovative distribution mechanism, 235–236 Hoffman, Reid, 127 “How to Run Your Own Apps for Democracy Innovation Contest,” 40 Humans, working in conjunction with computers, 85–87 Hurricane Sandy, lessons learned, 243–244 IKEA, resistance to change, 175 Income enabling various sources, 58–59 rising inequalities, 187–188, 195–196, 220–221 India, auto rickshaw innovation, 239–243 Individual strengths, 18 Indonesia, forest fires, 230–232 Industrial economy vs. collaborative, 18–19, 250 prior to Internet, 249 valuing corporation over people, 253 Industrial model, 164–166 Industrial strengths, 18 InnoCentive, 83 Innovation Apollo 13, 222–223 dictated by platform structure, 44–45 gap between idea and service, 172–173 no permission required, 141, 142 open platforms, 104–107 reforming Defense Intelligence Agency, 167–169 Instacart, 55 Institutions benefiting from peer collaboration, 61–68 lack of flexibility, 188–189 sustainability efforts, 226–229. See also B corp See also individual names Insurance health. See Benefits, workers’ and ridesharing, 154–155 Intellectual property, sharing. See Free and open-source software (FOSS); Open platforms; Patents, opening Intercontinental Hotel Group, 73–74 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 90–91 Internet economy before and since, 249–250 as government creation, 140–141 and platforms to tap excess capacity, 17–18 Internet service providers (ISPs), conflicts of interest, 123 Investments, private, 197–199, 200–202 iPhone, apps as excess capacity use, 26–27 Jacobs, Jane, 99 Jobs, Steve, 26–27 Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, 205 Kahneman, Daniel, 86 Kernel.


Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics by Francis Fukuyama

Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, cognitive bias, cuban missile crisis, energy security, flex fuel, global pandemic, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John von Neumann, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Norbert Wiener, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, The Wisdom of Crowds, trade route, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Yom Kippur War

See International Monetary Fund Immigration, 148, 149, 156, 161–62 Incentives: for good vs. bad predictions, 2, 171; against infectious disease preparedness, 87, 88, 89; political, 4, 171 Income gap, 137, 149 Income per capita: increases in, 137; and value of life, 11, 15 Incubation period, of SARS, 87 India: energy dependence of, 76; poverty rates in, 164; predictions of famine in, 135–36 Indian Ocean tsunami (2004), political barriers to preparing for, 10–11 Individualism, expressive, 133 Indonesia: breakup of, as future surprise, 106, 144; conditions before economic crisis in, 44, 46; effects of economic crisis in, 42, 47, 49 Inequality, income, 137, 149 Infectious disease, emerging, 82–90; drug resistance in, 84, 85; funding for response to, 89–90; gaps in preparation for, 83; global approach to, 83, 89–90; international regulations on, 88–89, 90; optimism vs. pessimism about prospect of, 129–30, 136; preparedness for, 85–86, 171; prevention of, 83–85; reporting on, 87, 88; response to, 87, 89–90; sources of, 82, 83; surveillance of, 86–87, 88; transmission of, 82–83, 85; treatment of, 84; vs. wellestablished disease, 84–85 Influenza pandemic: bird flu and, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86; funding for response to, 89–90; optimism vs. pessimism about prospect of, 129–30, 136; 2990-7 ch17 index 7/23/07 12:33 PM Page 190 190 1918–19 outbreak of, 83, 130, 136; preparedness for, 85; prevention of, 84, 85; response to, 87, 89–90; sources of future, 82; surveillance of, 86 Information collection, filters for, and strategic surprises, 99–100 Information processing, and strategic surprises, 100–01 Information technology innovation, 120–25; convergence of ideas in, 123–25; at DARPA, 63–65; individuals driving, 120–23; in scenario thinking, 110, 117–19; trends in, 120; U.S. leadership in, 58 Innovation organization, 59–70; DARPA model of, 63–67; definition of, 59; and energy dependence, 59–60, 67–70; fragmentation of, 62–63; at institutional level, 59, 63–67; at personal level, 59, 63–65; precursors to DARPA model of, 60–63; in World War II, 60–61 Inside-out perspective, 101–03 Institute of Medicine, 89 Institutional barriers: to energy innovation agency, 68–69; to preparedness, 2–5, 171 Institutional organization, of DARPA, 59, 63–67 Intel, 122–23 Intelligence, U.S.: examples of failures in, 41. See also Soviet Union collapse Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 113 International Energy Agency, 74, 77 International Health Regulations (IHR), 88–89, 90 International Monetary Fund (IMF): before East Asian economic crisis, 43, 48, 52, 170; response to East Asian economic crisis, 42, 48–49 International system, and climate change, 150–52 index Internet: access to knowledge through, 164–65; development of, 63–64, 123, 125; global changes caused by, 163 IPCC. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iran: and oil dependence, 74; regional role of, 146; Russian-Chinese alliance and, 159; U.S. foreign policy toward, 76 Iranian revolution, U.S. intelligence on, 41 Iraq: future of, 147; in Gulf War, 71, 146; oil embargo by, 74; oil industry in, 71–73, 74; pre-war WMD estimates for, 2–3, 41 Iraq war (2003– ): accuracy of bombs in, 138; and Australian-U.S. relations, 145; bold vs. careful policies in, 109; mental models in planning for, 170; oil embargo used as threat, 74; oil production during, 71; scenario thinking about, 112; and U.S. national power, 157; WMD estimates in, 2–3, 41 Islam: and breakup of Indonesia, 144; and oil industry, 74, 75; political, rise of, 146 Islamic countries, demographics of, 132–33 Islamic fundamentalism: in Egypt, 108; in Indonesia, 144 Israel, past surprises in, 146 Italy: future surprises in, 108; political Left in, 149 Jamaah al-Islamiya, 144 Japan: demographics in, 142; after East Asian economic crisis, 49, 50, 53; before East Asian economic crisis, 44, 46–47 Java, 106 Judaism, 160 Kahn, Herman, 112 Kaminsky, Graciela, 45–46 2990-7 ch17 index 7/23/07 12:33 PM Page 191 index 191 Katrina, Hurricane: cost-benefit analysis of preparing for, 15; economic development and, 8; political barriers to preparing for, 11–12; predictability of, 3; as socio-surprise, 3 Kennan, George, 97 Kennedy, John F., 64 Khamenei, Ali, 74 Kim Jong-Il, 33 Kimmel, Husband, 2 Knowledge, access to, 137, 164–65 Korean War, 62 Krugman, Paul, on East Asian economy, 43, 48 Kurzweil, Ray, 154 Kuwait, in Gulf War, 71, 146 Kyoto Protocol, 151 Logic, in digital computers, 123–24 Loomis, Alfred, 60–61 Los Alamos National Laboratory, 58, 61, 63 Low-probability, high-impact events (LPHIs), 147–50 Low-probability events: bias and, 2–3; challenges of, 1–6; in definition of catastrophe, 7; hedging against, limits of, 3, 171; imagination applied to, 3, 8–9, 98; psychological preparedness for, 4; in rational choice model, 4 LPHIs.

They must make difficult decisions about how, and how extensively, to regulate such pollution; what new emissions-reducing technologies to develop; and how to help farmers, coastal communities, and other vulnerable parts of society adapt to coming changes. To help inform these debates, scientists, economists, and other scholars concerned with climate change have created a variety of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the twenty-first century. The most impressive and authoritative effort has been the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) sponsored by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).6 The creators of these scenarios worked hard to implement the approach practiced by Wack and Schwartz but fell far short of results that can help national governments seize the opportunities and avoid the dangers related to climate change. To assess the SRES effort, it is important to note the extent to which climate change presents a challenge of competing surprises. In one plausible future, greenhouse gas emissions will continue rising and the earth’s natural environment will change more rapidly and dramatically than anything in recorded human experience.

Treverton, Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information (Cambridge University Press, 2001). 3. As quoted by Ronald Suskind, “Without a Doubt,” New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2004. 4. P. F. Drucker, The Age of Discontinuity (New York: Harper and Row, 1968). 5. M. B. Ridgway, Soldier: The Memoirs of Matthew B. Ridgway (New York: Harper, 1956). 6. N. Nakicenovic, and others, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2000). 2990-7 ch16 notes contribs notes 7/23/07 12:17 PM Page 179 179 7. David G. Groves and Robert J. Lempert, "A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios," Global Environmental Change 17 (2007): 73–85. 8. R. J. Lempert, S. W. Popper, and S. C. Bankes, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis, (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 2003).


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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't by Nate Silver

"Robert Solow", airport security, availability heuristic, Bayesian statistics, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, business cycle, buy and hold, Carmen Reinhart, Claude Shannon: information theory, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, Donald Trump, Edmond Halley, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, Freestyle chess, fudge factor, George Akerlof, global pandemic, haute cuisine, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, housing crisis, income per capita, index fund, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Laplace demon, locking in a profit, Loma Prieta earthquake, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, Nate Silver, negative equity, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pets.com, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, security theater, short selling, Skype, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons

See section 2.7 in “IPCC Second Assessment: Climate Changes 1995,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 5. It refers to a “best estimate” of a 2°C increase in global mean surface temperatures in the 110 years between 1990 and 2100, which works out to approximately 1.8°C per 100 years. The note also expresses a range of projections between 0.9°C and 2.7°C in warming per century. So, even the high end of the IPCC’s 1995 temperature range posited a (slightly) lower rate of warming than its best estimate in 1990. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-1995/ipcc-2nd-assessment/2nd-assessment-en.pdf. 84. Pielke, Jr., “Verification of IPCC Temperature Forecasts 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001319verification_of_ipcc.html. 85.

Gavin Schmidt, “Green and Armstrong’s Scientific Forecast,” RealClimate.org, July 20, 2007. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/07/green-and-armstrongs-scientific-forecast/. 50. “Occam’s Razor;” Wikipedia.org. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam’s_razor. 51. John Theodore Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, J. J. Ephraums, eds. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990). http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf. 52. “1.6: The IPCC Assessments of Climate Change and Uncertainties” in Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch1s1-6.html. 53. “New York Snow: Central Park Sets the October Record from Noreaster,” Associated Press via Huffington Post, October 29, 2011. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/29/new-york-snow-noreaster_n_1065378.html. 54.

“Nauru: General Data of the Country,” Populstat.info. http://www.populstat.info/Oceania/naurug.htm. 7. One common technique requires adults to dutifully record everything they eat over a period of weeks, and trusts them to do so honestly when there is a stigma attached to overeating (and more so in some countries than others). 8. J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, “Report Prepared for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Working Group I,” Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p. XI. 9. David R. Williams, “Earth Fact Sheet,” NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, last updated November 17, 2010. http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/earthfact.html. 10. Yochanan Kushnir, “The Climate System,” Columbia University. http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/lectures/radiation/. 11.


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The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows

agricultural Revolution, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dematerialisation, demographic transition, financial independence, game design, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), longitudinal study, means of production, new economy, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review

Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 203. 85. Ibid., 167-176. 86. Ibid., 205. 87. WCED, Our Common Future, 224. 88. Robert T. Watson, chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, presenting the key conclusions of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (Climate Change 2001) to the Sixth Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, July 19, 2001. Available at www.ipcc.ch. 89. D. H. Meadows et al., Limits to Growth (New York: Universe Books, 1972), 79. 90. WWF, Living Planet Report 1999 (Gland, Switzerland: WWF, 1999), 8. 91. R. T. Watson et al., Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2001). Also available along with numerous illustrations atwwwipcc.ch. 92. For a colorful presentation of the skeptic's view on climate and all other environmental issues, see Lomborg, Environmentalist. 93.

None of the observations above proves that the ongoing climate change has human causes. Even if it has, the effects of global climate change on future human activity or ecosystem health cannot be predicted with certainty Some have exploited that uncertainty in an effort to create a state of confusion,92 and thus it is important to state clearly what we do know In this we rely on the several hundred scientists and researchers who make up the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which issues their carefully considered views approximately every five years:93 • It is certain that human activities, especially fossil fuel burning and deforestation, contribute to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. FIGURE 3-24 The Rising Global Temperature The global average temperature has risen over the past century by some 0.6°C. The dashed line represents annual averages; the thick line represents five-year running averages.

Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facts and Problems (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1970). International Energy Statistics Sourcebook, 14th ed. (Tulsa, OK: PennWell Pub. Co., 1999). International Energy Annual 2001 (Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2001) http: / /www.eia.doe.gov/ emeu / iea / contents.html. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Chapter 3.4.3.1, "Fossil and Fissile Resources," http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/071.htm (accessed 1/19/04). Figure 3-11 U.S. Oil Production and Consumption Basic Petroleum Data Book (Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum Institute, 1981). Annual Energy Review (Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Dept. of Energy) http:/ /wwweia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/tab05O2.htm. Figure 3-12 Scenarios for Global Oil Production Kenneth S.


pages: 302 words: 83,116

SuperFreakonomics by Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner

agricultural Revolution, airport security, Andrei Shleifer, Atul Gawande, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, Boris Johnson, call centre, clean water, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, creative destruction, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, Did the Death of Australian Inheritance Taxes Affect Deaths, disintermediation, endowment effect, experimental economics, food miles, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Nash: game theory, Joseph Schumpeter, Joshua Gans and Andrew Leigh, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, market design, microcredit, Milgram experiment, oil shale / tar sands, patent troll, presumed consent, price discrimination, principal–agent problem, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, selection bias, South China Sea, Stanford prison experiment, Stephen Hawking, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, ultimatum game, urban planning, William Langewiesche, women in the workforce, young professional

Ground temperatures over the past 100 years can be found in “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,” U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). JAMES LOVELOCK: All Lovelock quotes in this chapter can be found in The Revenge of Gaia: Earth’s Climate Crisis and the Fate of Humanity (Basic Books, 2006). Lovelock is a scientist perhaps best known as the originator of the Gaia hypothesis, which argues that the earth is essentially a living organism much like (but in many ways superior to) a human being. He has written several books on the subject, including the foundational Gaia: The Practical Science of Planetary Medicine (Gaia Books, 1991). COWS ARE WICKED POLLUTERS: The potency of methane as a greenhouse gas as compared with carbon dioxide was calculated by the climate scientist Ken Caldeira, of the Carnegie Institution for Science, based on the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report.

He runs an ecology lab at Stanford for the Carnegie Institution. Caldeira is among the most respected climate scientists in the world, his research cited approvingly by the most fervent environmentalists. He and a co-author coined the phrase “ocean acidification,” the process by which the seas absorb so much carbon dioxide that corals and other shallow-water organisms are threatened. He also contributes research to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for sounding the alarm on global warming. (Yes, Caldeira got a Nobel certificate.) If you met Caldeira at a party, you would likely place him in the fervent-environmentalist camp himself. He was a philosophy major in college, for goodness’ sake, and his very name—a variant of caldera, the craterlike rim of a volcano—aligns him with the natural world.

Department of, 163 Homo altruisticus, 110–11 Homo economicus, 106, 110, 112, 113 horses, 8–10, 12 Horsley, Ian, 88–90, 91, 92, 94, 95–96 hospitals errors in, 68–69, 72, 204 report cards for, 75 See also specific hospital Hurricane Katrina, 158 hurricanes, 158–63,178,193 Iceland, volcano eruptions in, 189 Ichino, Andrea, 21–22 impure altruism, 124–25 incentives and altruism, 125,131 and annuities, 82 to change behavior, 203 and chemotherapy, 85 and climate change, 173, 203 and doctors’ behavior, 206 and drunk driving, 2 and predicting behavior, 17 and prostitution, 19–20, 25, 41 and unintended consequences, 139 wages as, 46–47 and women in India, 4 India condoms in, 5, 6 List in, 115 television in, 6–8, 12, 14, 16 TV in, 103 women in, 3–8, 14 Indian Council of Medical Research, 5 Industrial Revolution, 142 information, medical, 70–74 input dilemma, 188 Institute of Medicine, 204 Intellectual Ventures (IV), 177–203 pro bono work of, 198–99 See also specific person or project intentions behind an action, 106–7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 184 International Kidney Exchange, Ltd., 112 Internet, 39–40, 51 Iran, organ transplants in, 112, 124–25 Iraq war, 65, 87 Ireland, garbage tax in, 139 Irish Republican Army (IRA), 63 irrational behavior, 214 Jacobs, Barry, 112 Jaws (film), 15 Jefferson, Thomas, 83 Jensen, Robert, 6–7 Johnson, Boris, 170 Jung, Edward, 178 Justice Department, U.S., 23 Kahneman, Daniel, 115 Katz, Lawrence, 21, 45–46 Kay, Alan, 69 Kennedy, John F., 102 Kew Gardens (New York City).


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Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto by Stewart Brand

agricultural Revolution, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, back-to-the-land, biofilm, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, business process, Cass Sunstein, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dark matter, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Elon Musk, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, glass ceiling, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, Hernando de Soto, informal economy, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Kevin Kelly, Kibera, land tenure, lateral thinking, low earth orbit, M-Pesa, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, microbiome, New Urbanism, orbital mechanics / astrodynamics, out of africa, Paul Graham, peak oil, Peter Calthorpe, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, stem cell, Stewart Brand, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thomas Malthus, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, wealth creators, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, William Langewiesche, working-age population, Y2K

The idea of abruptness (in our paper and a number of others) changed the public conversation about climate change. For the first time, climate was understood as a clear and present danger, the responsibility of currently serving officials worldwide instead of some future generation’s problem. Public opinion on the subject began its own abrupt change. • If GBN’s scenario worries you, don’t worry. In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consulted twenty-three climate models and concluded that the widespread concern of climatologists about the Gulf Stream was misplaced. A Norwegian professor, Helge Drange, said, “The bottom line is that the atmosphere is warming up so much that a slowdown of the North Atlantic Current will never be able to cool Europe.” Or worry harder. A 2008 study of Greenland ice cores revealed that changes in the Gulf Stream appear to have triggered severe climate changes twelve thousand years ago that occurred not over decades but in one to three years.

Guanacaste Conservation Area, Costa Rica Guardian Guidetti, Geri Gwadz, Robert Haeckel, Ernst “Half Century of United States Federal Government Energy Incentives, A” (Bezdek and Wendling) Hallwachs, Winnie Hamming, Richard Hansen, James Hansson, Anders Harris, Michael Harrison, Jim Haseltine, William Hawaii Hawken, Paul Hawks, John heat waves Hebert, Paul Henderson, Donald herbicides Herman, Arthur Higgs, Eric High Country News Hillis, Danny Hiroshima, Japan HIV/AIDS Holdren, John Holistic Management (Savory) Homer-Dixon, Thomas Hopis horizontal gene transfer horses Howard, Albert Humanitarian Golden Rice Network hurricanes hybrid seeds hydroelectric power hydrogen ice-to-water albedo flip Idea of Decline in Western History, The (Herman) IEEE Spectrum iGEM Jamboree Iglesias-Rodríguez, Débora Illicit (Naím) “Implications of Rising Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere” (Conservation Foundation) Inconvenient Truth, An Independent India genetic engineering and Green Revolution and nuclear power and slums and Industry Association of Synthetic Biology informal economy infrastructure insect resistance insulin integral fast reactors integrated pest management intelligent design Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International Consortium for Polynucleotide Synthesis International Council of Science (ICSU) International Human Microbiome Consortium International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center International Rice Research Institute International Soil Reference and Information Centre International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Internet Internet Engineering Task Force Intertribal Bison Cooperative Intervention (Caruso) iron irrigation Islam, Muslims Italy jaguars Janzen, Daniel Japan atomic bombing of genetic engineering and nuclear power and Jefferson, Richard Jennings, Lois Judson, Horace Juniper, Tony Kahn, Herman Kahn, Lloyd Kaplan, Robert Kareiva, Peter Kaufman, Wallace Keeling, Charles Keith, David Kelly, Brian Kelly, Kevin Kenya Keynes, John Maynard Khosla, Vinod King, Franklin Hiram Kirk, Andrew Klaassen, Johann Kleiber’s law Knight, Tom Kohm, Kathy Korea, North Korea, South Kunstler, James Howard Kyoto Protocol (2001) L-1 Point (Inner Lagrange Point) Lackner, Klaus Lake Nyos, Cameroon, disaster in Lamarck, Jean-Baptiste Lament for an Ocean (Harris) landraces Langewiesche, William Lansing, Stephen Laquian, Aprodicio Last Forest, The (London and Kelly) Last Whole Earth Catalog Latham, John Latin America genetic engineering and see also specific countries Laws of Fear (Sunstein) LeBlanc, Steven LEED rating system Lehmann, Johannes Lerner, Jaime Lewis, John Liberation Biology (Bailey) Liferaft Earth Limits to Growth, The (Meadows et al.)

“We were surprised to find that areas that were suffering most from deforestation had the lowest population density and were far from markets,” he told New Scientist. The robust areas of forest were protected by their local villages: “If an outsider wants to use the forest, the only way to get permission is to marry into the clan.” Because of climate concerns, forests are now seen as crucial for their role in fixing and retaining carbon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that converting 2 billion acres of farmland to agroforestry (which integrates trees, shrubs, livestock, and row crops) would remove 50 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The World Agroforestry Centre suggests that “allowing farmers to sell that carbon on global carbon markets could generate as much as $10 billion each year for poor people in rural areas.” Forests change climate, and climate changes forests.


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An Optimist's Tour of the Future by Mark Stevenson

23andMe, Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, augmented reality, bank run, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, clean water, computer age, decarbonisation, double helix, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, flex fuel, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hans Rosling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of agriculture, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Leonard Kleinrock, life extension, Louis Pasteur, low earth orbit, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, off grid, packet switching, peak oil, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, social intelligence, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, strong AI, the scientific method, Wall-E, X Prize

We’re told our cities may flood, whole nations may become uninhabitable, that the carrying capacity of the planet will plummet and wars will erupt as we fight for ever scarcer resources. Then we realise that climate science isn’t exact. To the non-science literate this makes the whole enterprise sound rather unsure of itself – and given the gravity of the possible outcomes, many people expect a stronger-worded case. (Ironically for many scientists, the consensus on the climate change threat, expressed in a series of IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – reports, represents the strongest wording any body of scientists has ever collectively come up with.) Then there’s the fact that the most important figure used in the climate change argument seems intuitively non-threatening – sure CO2 levels have gone up, but by a hundred parts per million. And the rise since the Industrial Revolution? About a thousandth of a per cent of the entire atmosphere.

Daniel 160, 164 Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, The 100 Hoek, Eric 118 Hofmeister, Anke 261–2 Hofstadter, Douglas 276 Holbrook 221–2, 239–40 Huggable 78 Human Security Brief 148 Huntington’s disease 44, 58 Huxley, Julian 13 I IBM 113, 125 identical twins 43 Imperial College London 31, 213 indium 195–6 Industrial Revolution 110, 115, 167, 171, 284–5 inequality 302 influenza virus 64–5, 69–70 Insomnia Cookies 93–4 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 149 Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology 69 Intelligent, Safe and Smart Built (ISSB) 119 interconnectedness Internet 151–8 nonzero-sum game 149–51 telegraph 145–7 and violent deaths 149 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 171, 172, 179, 180 International Association Synthetic Biology 68 International Gene Synthesis Consortium 68 Internet 147, 151–64, 268, 302 invariants 99 Iran 157 Isasi, Rosario 27 IVF 106 J Jackson, Ron 64 Jones, Richard 120–1, 124, 130 Joule Biotechnologies 57, 186–8, 189 JSB see Brown, John Seely Jungerbluth, Philip 20 Jurassic Park 39, 75 K Kahn, Bob 153, 159 Kármán line 133 Kasparov, Garry 82, 83, 86 Katter, Bob 171 Keeley, Lawrence 147 Keeling, Charles David 167 Keith, David 184 Kelly, Kevin 161 Kench, Paul 242 Kessler, Andy 43 Klein, Naomi 303 Kleinrock, Leonard 152 Kline, Charley 152 Knome 50 Konarka 190–1, 196–204, 206, 224, 295, 299 Kossel, Albrecht 37 Krummel, Glen 228 Kukla, George 178–9, 186 Kunfunadhoo Island 261–2, 266 Kurzweil, Ray 90, 267–78, 282, 293, 299, 303–4 and Brown, John Seely 285 posthumans 103–4, 268 The Singularity 88 transhumanism 21–2, 267–8 Kyrgyzstan 157 L Lackner, Klaus 173, 174–86, 188, 189, 259–60, 299, 301 Lana 224–5 Langley, Tim 212–19 Law of Accelerating Returns 51, 270–8, 293 Leber’s congenital amaurosis (LCA) 59–60 Legion of Extraordinary Dancers 155, 158, 294 Lehmann, Johannes 209–10 Leo 73–4, 75–6, 79, 80–2, 84–6, 102 Lewis, Dan 203 Licht, Stuart 184 life expectancy 12–13, 301 and income 27–8 longevity escape velocity 29–30 limited liability corporations 290–1 Lincoln, Abraham 265–6 Lipson, Hod 92, 94–6, 98–101, 102, 210, 272–3, 293, 299 longevity escape velocity 29–30 López, José 117 Lovell, Tony 222–40, 300 Lovelock, James 164, 172, 220 biochar 208–9, 210, 215 LS9 56–7, 61 Lynx spaceplane 142 M Maahlos 261 McConnell, James 17 MacDiarmid, Alan 196 ‘Machine Stops, The’ (Forster) 161 McNamara, Kaitlyne 20–1 Maes, Pattie 162–3 Maldives 241–62 Malé 249–50 Malthus, Thomas Robert 250 ‘Manchester Report, The’ 223, 224 Markram, Henry 90, 91 Martine, George 252–3 Masten Space Systems 136 Matrix, The 103 men life expectancy 12, 23 pregnancy 24 methane 230 Methuselah Foundation 21 Mexico 278–9 Miescher, Johannes Friedrich 37 Miller, Webb 41 Minsky, Marvin 102, 104 Miromatrix Medical 20 MIT 40, 262 Fluid Interfaces Group 162–3 Media Lab 77–8 nanotechnology 201 Smart Cities Group 200 Technology Review 16, 187 Mitchell, Bill 200 Mojave 131–3, 135–44 Monbiot, George 215, 303 Moombril 221–2, 239–40 Moore, Michael 303 Moorhead, Paul 18 Moravec, Hans 74, 84, 89–90 Morgan Stanley 193 Mosely, Andrew 231–5 Mosely, Megan 231–5 Mouchot, Augustin 192–3, 266 mousepox 63–4 Musk, Elon 136, 141 Myhrvold, Nathan 16 N Najning University 120 nanofactories 114–17, 125–6, 286 Nanoforum 120 nanoparticles 287 nanopunk 117 Nanosolar 202–3 Nanosystems (Drexler) 112, 124 nanotechnology 107, 108–30, 268, 301, 302 apocalypse 125–7 and energy 201 Grey Goo 121–3 products 117–21 Narrandera 237–8 NASA 134, 135, 136, 141, 170 Nasheed, Mohamed 243–9, 254–60, 262 National Academy of Engineering 125 National Academy of Sciences 125 National Center for Atmospheric Research 176 National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) 64–5 National Human Genome Research Institute 36 National Research Council 125 National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity 67–8 natural language 86–7 Nature 170 Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) 134 New Scientist 68 New York 172 New York University 120 New Zealand 206–20 New Zealand Wind Farms 208 Nexi 102 Niven, Larry 135 nonzero-sum games 149–51, 153–4, 270 Northwest Passage 177–8 Nouri, Ali 65 nuclein 37 O oil 193 Olovnikov, Alexey 52–3 Olshansky, Stuart Jay 12 oncogenes 46–7 optical telegraph 145–6 Optimist (cocktail) 220 organic conductive polymers 196–7, 198, 201 ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency 58–9 Ott, Harold 20 over-population 17–18 P Pakistan 157 Pan Am 133 parabolic surfaces 192 Parkinson’s disease 273–4 Partners in Health (PIH) 202 Personal Genome Project (PGP) 37, 42–3, 47–50, 51, 273 Personal Robots Group 73–4, 75–6, 77–82, 84–6, 102 Pew Charitable Trusts 119 Pew Research Center 168 phenylketonuria 44, 58 Picton 214–15, 217–18, 220 Pifre, Abel 192 Pinatubo, Mount 169 Pinker, Steven 83, 147, 149, 293 Pirbright Laboratory 68 Pistorius, Oscar 29, 300 Pleasance, Erin 40–1 Polonator G.007 50 Pontin, James 16 Popular Science Monthly 192 population 17–18, 249–54 pornography 158 Portugal 234–5 Power Plastic 196–7, 198, 204, 224 Prey (Crichton) 122 procreative beneficence 23 Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies 119 proteins 45–6 ProtoLife 66 Pygmalion (Shaw) 86 pyrolysis 209–10, 212–14 R Ranchos de Taos, New Mexico 234 Rankin, Sarah 31 Rasmussen, Lars 256 Rebek, Julius 124 reflection 86 Regis, Ed 112 Reicher, Dan 194–5 Rema 199 Reporters Without Borders 157 Revue des Deux Mondes 192 Rice University 118–19, 201 Ridley, Matt 270, 302–3 Roberts, Lawrence 152 Roberts, Paul 244, 248, 254 Robinson, Ken 265–6, 284, 288, 293 robots 73–92, 302 Leo 73–4, 75–6, 79, 80–2, 84–6 Nexi 102 Starfish 95–6, 98–9 Rofecoxib 49 Rosenthal, Elisabeth 254 Rosling, Hans 251, 254, 293 Rothemund, Paul 119, 120 Ruddiman, William 230 Rumsfeld, Donald 172 Rutan, Dick 140–1, 142, 143 S Sanger Institute 40–1, 51 Saudi Arabia 157 Savory, Allan 221, 226–7, 232 Savulescu, Julian 23 scalable efficiency 286 Scaled Composites 136, 139, 142 Schmidt, Michael 98, 99, 273 Schöni, Peter 220 Schuster, Stephen 41 Schweizer, Erhard 113 scientific method 96–8 self-replication 121–3 senescence 18, 53–4 Shadow Robot Company 74–5 Sharkey, Noel 76–7 Sharpe, Tom 256 Shaw, George Bernard 86 Shawcross, Lord 215 Shew, Ashley 109–10 Shirakawa, Hideki 196 Shivdasani, Eva 261 Shivdasani, Sonu 261 Siemens 193 silicon cells 195–7 Singularity 88, 268 Singularity is Near, The 268, 269, 271 Six Million Dollar Man, The 14 SixthSense 162–3 Skordalakes, Emmanuel 52, 53 Smalley, Richard 111, 122, 123, 201 SmartHand 103 Smolker, Rachel 216 Snider, Wayne 200 Socrates 96–7, 99 soil carbon 228–31, 233–5, 236–7, 238 soil charcoal 213–14 solar energy 190–1, 192–3, 194–205, 206, 274, 295, 302 Solar Thermal Electrochemical Photo Carbon Capture 184 Solarbuzz 205 Soneva Fushi 261–2 space 133–44, 302 Space Frontier Foundation 134 SpaceShipOne 135–6 SpaceShipTwo 136, 139, 142 SpaceX 136, 141 Sparrow, Rob 23–4 Speedy, Barb 218 Spielberg, Steven 75 Stan Winston Studio 75 Standage, Tom 146–7 Stanford University 20 Star Wars 76, 83, 102 Starfish 95–6, 98–9 Stark, Philip 158 Stellenbosch University 118 stem cells 19–21, 31, 301 Stiehl, Dan 78–9 Stoppard, Tom 281 Strong, Graham 237–8 StubbyGlove 228 Suel, Gurol 273 Suh, Yousin 53 Sun Tzu 40–1, 51–2 surveillance 127, 129 synthetic biology 55–8, 70 bacteria 56–8 bioterrorism 63–6, 68 control 66–70 genome engineering 60–3 viral gene therapy 58–60 Synthetic Genomics 56 Syria 157 Szostak, Jack 18 T Taylor, Doris 20 TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) 14, 153, 265–6, 291–5 Tefera, Elfenesh 199 telegraph 145–7, 297, 301 tellurium 195–6 telomerase 18–19, 45, 52–4 Terminator, The 76, 78, 103, 302 Tetrahymena 18 Thornton, Edward 146 thymine 37–9, 46 Toffler, Alvin 289 Tofu 79 transhumanism 13–18, 21–34, 45, 52–4, 267–8 transplants 19–21 Treder, Mike 126–7 tribes 155–6 Tripathy, Sukant 199 truth 96–8 Tsiolkovsky, Konstantin 114, 116, 125, 128 Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development 49 Tumlinson, Rick 133–4 Turing, Alan 88 Turkmenistan 157 Turney, Chris 213 twins 43 U underwater cabinet meeting 241–2, 245, 246–9, 258 Ungar, Georges 17 United Nations (UN) biosafety 68 Livestock’s Long Shadow 230 population 252 State of the World’s Forests 253 World Urbanisation Prospects 250 United States biofuels 187 carbon dioxide 184 electricity 285 global warming 168 oil 187, 188 science 279–80 space programme 134, 136 University of Bradford 149 University of Bristol 20 University of British Columbia 148 University of California 118–19 University of Maryland 201 University of Minnesota 20 University of Regensburg 125 University of Washington, Center for Conservation Biology 40 Uppsala University 148 Uzbekistan 157 V Venter, Craig 36, 47, 50, 56, 57, 58, 279 Vietnam 157 Vinsen, Mark 211–12 violence 147–51, 302 and interconnectedness 157–8 and Internet 244–5 and nanotechnology 126–7 Vioxx 49 viral gene therapy 58–60 Virgin Galactic 135–6, 141 vitrification 15 Voltaire 218 Voyager 140 W Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine 20 Wall-E 76 Ward, Bruce 222–40, 259, 300 wars 147–9 Watson, James 56 Web 154–5 Weitz, David 51 Weizenbaum, Joe 86 Weldon, Larry 190–1, 196–7 Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute 40–1, 51 Wemett, Tracy 190, 197, 204, 267, 276, 297 Wired 61, 112, 159 Witt, Stuart 137–40, 143, 144 women 23–4 Wonder, Stevie 269 wood gas 209 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 119 World Health Organisation 68, 69–70, 148, 149 World Transhumanist Association 25 worldchanging.com 158 Wright, Allen 179, 180 Wright, Burt 179, 180 Wright, Karen 224–5 Wright, Orville 132–3 Wright, Robert 149–51, 156, 158, 270, 293 Wright, Tim 224–5 Wright, Wilbur 132–3 X Xcel Energy 199, 200 XCOR Aerospace 136, 141–2 Y YouTube 155, 157, 294 Z Zhang, Jin 118 Zimbabwe 221, 226 Zittrain, Jonathan 153 Ziyad, Mohamed 254, 255–6 Zykov, Victor 95 * An interesting coda to Claudia’s story is that she nearly didn’t get her operation.

The normally calm research scientist lost his cool, not least because he was entertaining ‘a very important man from China, one of the first Chinese visitors that came here.’ Wally laughs. ‘We asked him whether the Chinese did pranks like that and he said: “Only small children.”’ But joking aside, Wally is one of the world’s top scientists, and when he talks about climate, people listen. He has kept himself apart from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change committees, instead giving his own accounts, based on sixty years of science. He insists the warming we’re seeing now is fundamentally different to historical shifts in the climate. ‘It’s bigger and faster,’ he tells me. Which naturally prompts the question ‘What can we do about it?’ The options generally presented are to do nothing (this from the sceptic camp), cut CO2 emissions (from optimistic climate activists) or engineer countermeasures to produce some kind of counteracting cooling effect.


pages: 339 words: 105,938

The Skeptical Economist: Revealing the Ethics Inside Economics by Jonathan Aldred

airport security, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, citizen journalism, clean water, cognitive dissonance, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, Diane Coyle, endogenous growth, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, framing effect, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, labour market flexibility, laissez-faire capitalism, libertarian paternalism, longitudinal study, new economy, Pareto efficiency, pension reform, positional goods, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, school choice, spectrum auction, Thomas Bayes, trade liberalization, ultimatum game

But here I focus on environmental matters where many of the underlying problems with quantification arise in a particularly stark and challenging form. Before examining them in detail, it is worth taking a glimpse at policy debate on climate change in order to see exactly how the issues arise and how crucial they have become. Climate change battles The key organization charged with advising governments across the globe on climate change policy is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC has argued fiercely over the monetary valuation of human life — the argument nearly tore the IPCC apart. The argument was not about the notion of monetary value of human life itself, but the numbers involved. The standard view of market economics is, unsurprisingly, that the monetary values put on life, or decreased risk of death, should reflect values in markets. Economists argue that we can deduce how much people care about an increased or decreased risk of death by observing their behaviour in markets.

Land Economics 73: 492-507 Index ability to pay 87 absolute consumption 58-59 accountability 199, 205-206, 230 see also audit culture adaptation 23-24, 25, 237 and increasing happiness 66-67, 98, 140-141 to economic growth 55-57, 61-62 addictive consumption 22-24, 98 advertising brand recognition 16 consumer sovereignty 19-21 increased choice 41 restricting 236-237 affluenza 3, 235-238 altruism see unselfish behaviour animal lives 160 Aristotle 134, 135 audit culture 192-198, 202, 204-205 availability 15-16, 122 babies, markets in 181, 209 Baumol’s cost disease 68-74, 78, 237-238 affordability of personal services 74-77, 191 Baumol, William 68, 75, 76, 77 Bayesianism 164-166, 178, 224-225 Bayes, Thomas 164 Becker, Gary 27, 34 behavioural economics 26, 232-233, 234 belief 13 benefit transfer 157 Bentham, Jeremy 120-121, 130-131, 135 best practice 201, 202 Bewley, Truman 229 biodiversity 160 black box economics 1-2, 4 Blanchard, Oliver 48 Blinder, Alan 232 blood donation 33, 197, 217 body shape and weight 42 brand recognition 16, 21 Breyer, Stephen 156 Broome, John 154 Bush, George W. administration 146, 153, 156 capital investment 168 capital punishment 215-216 Caplan, Bryan 226-227 carbon trading markets 222, 223 cars advertising 20 ownership 42-43, 63 catastrophe, precautionary principle 173 charitable giving 27, 28, 33-34 choice 25-26 costs to consumers 39, 191 economic analysis 12-14, 25-26, 43-44 increasing options 39-43, 182-184, 192 inequalities of 43, 189-190, 209-210 ofjobs 101-102 psychologist analysis 14-19 in public services 184-186, 188-192, 205 rational 11-12, 21, 28, 164-165 see also decision making choice advisers 191 citizen’s income 97 citizens’ juries 214, 215 climate change 2, 21, 146, 147-151, 159, 218 precautionary principle 173 valuing the future 161, 162 commodification 179-181, 206-216 alternatives to CBA 213-216 limits to monetary valuation 216-219 meaning of monetary valuation 207-210 rational decision making 211-213 commuters 56, 57 compensation argument for rates of pay 99-103, 105 competitive consumption 24-25, 57-62, 62-63 congestion 60-61 consumers 11-45 addictive consumption 22-24, 98 choice in public services 182-192 competitive consumption 24-25, 57-62, 62-63 preference satisfaction 37-43 rational choice 11-12 self-interest 26-36 shopping 12-19 sovereignty myth 19-22, 25, 156, 158, 225 consumption future 168 see also consumers context-specific valuation of risk 157-158 contingent valuation surveys 152, 157 contracts 203-204 contribution argument for rates of pay 103-108 coordination problem 63 cost-benefit analysis (CBA) 145-178 alternatives to 173-174, 213-216 best practice 201, 202 climate change 2, 146, 147-151, 159 determining preferences 39 of emotions 30-31 limits to monetary quantification 175-178 valuing the future 161-173 valuing human life 147-148, 151-160, 209 valuing nature 160-161 Coyle, Diane 2 cream-skimming 189-190, 210 cultural differences in perception of happiness 118-120 cultural value 207 Damasio, Antonio 44 decision making 174, 175, 176-177, 211-214 see also cost-benefit analysis (CBA) declining discount rates 169-170 democracy and accountability 199, 206, 230 and CBA 172-173, 176-177, 214 economics as 225, 227-228 valuing life 158-159 see also politics deserving what we earn 99-109 desire 13 Dickens, Charles 138 digital TV 41, 42 diminishing marginal utility 95, 158-159 disappointment 41 discounting 149, 166-173, 176, 178, 226, 234 doctors 2, 70, 91, 106-107 decisions on behalf of patients 186-187 drugs 128 earnings 79-80 differences in 99-109 personal services sector 70-71 see also performance-related pay (PRP); taxation economic growth 47-78, 168, 170 adaptation to 55-57, 61-62 affordability of personal services 74-77 alternative form of 236-238 and consumer sovereignty 21-22 and happiness 48-55, 61-62, 66-68, 141-142 meaning and measurement of 64-66 rivalry 57-62, 62-63 self-help 62-64 and taxation 88, 89 and work 235-236 see also Baumol’s cost disease economic imperialism 180, 222-223, 233 ecosystem services 160-161 education as a positional good 60-61, 190 reflected in pay 100, 105, 106 to enable pursuit of a good life 136, 236 education services 69, 237-238 choices 185-186 goals 202 inequality 189 supply and demand 190 efficiency 4-6, 8, 177 personal services 75, 191 taxation 93, 94, 95-98, 111-112, 237 effort 108 Ellsberg Paradox 164-165 emotions and choosing public services 185 and complex choices 40-41, 42 and monetary incentives 197 and prediction of satisfaction 16 and self-interest 30-31 employment 48, 53, 142, 235-236 Environmental Protection Agency (US) (EPA) 151 ethics 7-9, 224-228, 239 consumers 34-36, 37-38, 44 desert 108 and efficiency 5-6, 112 impartiality across generations 166-167, 171-172 limits to monetary valuation 216-219 monetary value for human life 150, 159-160 personal 138 principled disagreement 201-202 for public policy 133-139, 140-141, 142, 177, 234 view of discount rates 170-171 Experience Machine 127 Experience Sampling Method 123,124 fairness and efficiency 94-98 framing effects 14-15, 16, 18, 197 Frank, Robert 56 Freakonomics 1, 31-32, 34, 233 free trade 5-6 Friedman, Milton 7 future generations, discounting 166-167, 168-169, 171-172 future outcomes discounting 149, 166-173 precautionary principle 173-174 see also probabilities gambling games 164 game theory 222, 233 goals happiness 125, 126, 129-133 monetary incentives 200-201 for public services 199, 201-202 self interest 17, 37 Goodhart’s Law 141, 192, 194, 202, 223-224 governments auditing public services 203-204 consumer sovereignty 30, 38, 186 economic growth 47-48, 49, 68 Greatest Happiness principle 137-138 policy and CBA 150, 154, 157, 160, 172-173, 175, 215-216 policy for maximizing happiness 141-143 rights of ownership 81-82, 84-85 setting priorities 210 trust in 230-231 Greatest Happiness principle 127-133, 136-138 growth paths 65, 66 guilt 27, 28, 30-31 habitat destruction 160 Hahn, Robert 163 happiness 113-143 adaptation to material improvement 55-57 defining 114-116, 120-121, 134 and economic growth 48-55, 61-62, 66-68 maximized through extending choice 183 maximized through pay incentives 109 maximized through taxation 94-98 measurement of 53-54, 116-126, 139-140, 141, 224 philosophy of 126-133 and public ethics 133-139 as public policy 140-143 of service providers 191 happiness economics 50-55, 64, 78, 115, 122 alternative form of economic growth 236-237 and politics 137-138, 141-143 happiness treadmill 23, 24, 55 see also satisfaction treadmill Harrod, Sir Roy 59 Hayeck, Friedrich von 27-28 health insurance (US) 189-190 health services 69, 71-72, 237-238 difficulty in choosing 184-185 inequality in 189-190 productivity improvements 70, 74 see also doctors Heckman, James 188 higher pleasures 130-131, 135-136 Hirsch, Fred 59, 63 holiday entitlements 58, 59 holidays 17 Homo economicus 27, 29-36, 44, 111,178 and behavioural economics 232 determining preferences 39 location in brain 225-226 self-fulfilling assumption 224 service providers 187 and trust 230-231 useful context for 222-223 hours of work 91-92, 105, 108 House of Lords (UK) report on climate change 148, 150 human life discounting 168 monetary value of 21, 147-148, 151-160, 207-208 Quality-Adjusted Life Years 176 Hume, David 129 identity 24-25, 42, 154 ignorance 162 incentive to work 89-92, 104, 109 and tax 109-112 see also audit culture; monetary incentives income adaptation to 23-24 and happiness 52-54 relative 57-58, 59-60, 62 see also earnings; taxation income effect 91, 92 income tax see taxation inconspicuous consumption 59 inefficiency see efficiency inequality acceptability of 79-80 and choice in public services 188-190, 209-210 effect on happiness 54 rates of pay 99-109 information for consumers advertising 19-20 complexity in public services 184-185 inheritance 81, 86, 99 genetic 101, 108 in-kind valuations 213—214 intellectual diversity 229 interest rates 167—168, 169 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 147-148, 158 internet 43 interpersonal utility comparisons 49-50 Israeli day-care centres study 32 Japan, economic growth and happiness 52 Jefferson, Thomas 130 Jevons, William Stanley 49 job centre case workers 188, 202 Kahneman, Daniel 25-26, 124 objective happiness 114, 121, 125, 126 Peak-End evaluations 17, 122, 125 Keynes, John Maynard 6, 177, 235 Kyoto Protocol 146, 148 labour costs see Baumol’s cost disease labour market 5, 72, 142 language 87, 239 and reporting happiness 116-117, 118-119 law-breakers 34-35 Layard, Richard 121, 126, 137 alternative form of economic growth 236-237 Greatest Happiness principle 129-130, 132-133 happiness drugs 128 Le Grand, Julian 184, 186, 187, 188-189, 195-198 libertarianism view of taxation 82, 84, 86 widening choice 183, 205 libertarian paternalism 227-228 life expectancy 54 limited edition products 60 Locke, John 84 lost wallets 27, 28, 30 love 27, 208 luck and responsibility 105-106 marginal tax rates 96-97 market imperfections 218 market prices 33, 107 market rates of pay 99 compensation argument 100-101, 102, 103 contribution argument 103, 104, 106-107 putting a value on human life 147-148, 152-155 mental illness 3, 42, 54 Mill, John Stuart 130-131, 135-136, 183 mobile phone spectrum auctions 222 monetary incentives 30, 31-33, 195-198, 217 public services 200-201 see also performance-related pay (PRP) monetary quantification see commodification; cost benefit analysis (CBA) money corrosive effects of 209 see also monetary incentives mood 121-122, 125 moral convictions 217 motivation intrinsic 33, 195, 197, 200-201 public service staff 186-188, 191-198, 199, 200-201, 206 see also self-interest; status seeking national product 64-65, 70 natural talents 99, 101, 102, 105 nature ownership rights 210 putting a value on 160-161, 208, 213-214 neuroscience 50, 115-116, 117-118, 225-226 news media current perceptions of economics 6-7 doctrine of self-interest 34 silence on Baumol’s cost disease 68-69, 77 Nietzche, Friedrich Wilhelm 119 non-economic impacts 7 non-renewable resources 168 Nozick, Robert 127 Nussbaum, Martha 131 objective happiness 114, 121, 125, 126, 127 objective list theories 134-136 optimal tax theory 95-98 optimization 233 options 13-16 increasing 39-43, 182-184, 192 ownership principle 80-87, 218 pay see earnings; performance-related pay (PRP) Peak-End evaluation 17-18, 122, 125-126 perceived happiness 140 perfect preferences 37-39, 43, 135-136 performance-related pay (PRP) 33, 193-194, 195-198, 200, 237 performative contradiction 231 performative economics 223-224 personal services 69-77, 237-238 Peter the plumber 92-93 pleasure 22-23, 130-131, 134, 135 policy entrepreneurs 1-2 political economics 230-231, 233 political forums 214, 215 politics democracy and CBA 172-173, 177, 215 and happiness economics 137-138, 141-143 poll taxes 93-94 positional goods 59-61, 63, 190, 236, 237 post-tax distribution 85—86, 87, 98 precautionary principle 173—174 preferences 13, 14, 135—136, 225 and advertising 19—20 of future generations 168-169 pure time 166-167, 172 revealed by choices 21, 64 risk 156, 159, 176 satisfaction 37-43 pre-tax economic activity 92-93, 94 pre-tax income 80-84 pricelessness 209, 210 principled disagreement 201-202 priorities audit culture 193, 202 government policy 38, 50, 141,142 private property 80-81 probabilities 150, 154, 155, 161-162, 164-166 productivity 65-66 high earners 96-97 personal services 70-72, 73-74, 75-76 and taxation 88, 89, 90 progressive tax systems 96, 97 psychological well-being (PWB) 134-135 psychology 14-19 see also behavioural economics public opinion 214 public perception of risk 153, 155-156 public service ethos 194, 199-201, 205, 210,219 public services 68, 74-75, 180 affordability 74-77, 237-238 and attitudes to taxation 110-111 audit culture 192-198 complexity and importance 184-185 distinctiveness of 198-206, 216-217 ensuring real choice 188-192 implications of choices for others 185-186 motivation of service providers 186-188, 191-198, 199, 200-201, 206 trust 203-206 widening choice 182-184 see also Baumol’s cost disease pure time preference 166-167, 172 qualitative factors 163 Quality-Adjusted Life Years 174 quality of life 3, 236 measurement of 49-50, 50-55 and public ethics 135-139 quantifying the unquantifiable 162-166 targets 193 Ramsey, Frank 167 rational choice 11-12, 21, 28, 164-165 see also decision making Rawls, John 99, 101, 102 redistribution 86, 88, 92-94 maximization of happiness 95-98 Rees, Bill 232 regret 41, 42 relationships, putting a value on 208 relative consumption 58-59, 61 relative income 57-58, 59-60, 62 research objectives and methods 228-230 responsibility 41, 100, 105 rights 82, 83, 181, 210, 218 rigour in research methods 229 risk monetary value of 21, 151-158, 178, 211 versus uncertainty 161-166 rivalry 24-25, 57-62, 62-63, 237 and increasing happiness 66-67, 98 sacrifice 196 satisfaction treadmill 125, 126, 140 see also happiness treadmill scarcity 59-61, 106-107 science and economics 1, 8, 50, 224, 225,227, 228-230 Greatest Happiness principle 131-133 see also neuroscience self-control 18-19 self-help 62-64 self-interest 12, 13, 17-19, 26-36 and consumer sovereignty 21-22 politicians and economists 230-231 public service providers 187, 188 self-fulfilling assumptions of 31-34, 223 self-reported happiness see surveys, happiness Sen, Amartya 132, 136, 234 Shaw, George Bernard 208, 210 shopping 11, 12 addiction and compulsion 22-26 economist perspective 12-14 psychologist perspective 14-19 smiley-face sampling 124, 130 smiling 119-120 Smith, Adam 6 smoking 18-19, 132, 135 spare capacity in public services 190 standard of living 48 state benefits 85-86 statistical lives 151-152, 154, 207-208 status anxiety 24-25 status seeking 58-61, 62-63, 236 Stern Review 148-149, 150, 166 substitution effect 91, 92, 96 subtractive method 117 supply and demand in public services 189, 190 rates of pay 100, 101, 105, 106 surveys 214 contingent valuation 152, 157 happiness 53-54, 114-115, 116-117, 118-124, 130, 137 public services users 182 sustainability 171 sustainable development 173 Sutton, Willie 34 targets see audit culture taxation 76, 79-98 cigarettes 132 effect on work 88-92 evasion 35 incentive to work 109-112 ownership principle 80-87 redistribution 86, 88, 92-94 to maximize happiness 94-98, 237-238 teachers 70 team working 193, 194 technical innovation 65, 70, 73-74 theory and self-fulfillment 223-224 Titmuss, Richard 33 trade-offs 13 complex choices 40-41 economic growth 63-64 life 160, 211 taxation 94, 95, 97 The Truman Show 127 trust 203-206, 230-231 TWA Flight 800 163 ultimatum game 29, 33-34 uncertainty and the precautionary principle 173 and risk 161-166 unselfish behaviour 27-28, 29 reaction to manipulation 31-32 service providers 187-188 utilitarianism 120-121, 126-133, 135,136,138-139, 183 Uttal, William 117 value judgements see ethics value for money 212 veto economics 2-3, 6, 227 Viscusi, Kip 153 volunteers 195 wage differentials 152-153, 157 Weitzman, Martin 169 work and employment 235-236 hours of 91-92, 105, 108 see also incentive to work worker inputs and outputs 104-105 Table of Contents Contents Acknowledgements Chapter One - Introduction: Ethical Economics?

Poor people are worth less, on any measure of their value reflected in market prices or surveys. In drafting the second IPCC report, most governments completely rejected this view, but a group of economists insisted that the report should include it: ‘A careful reading of the fine print revealed that they were valuing lives in rich countries at $1,500,000, in middle-income countries at $300,000, and in lowest-income countries at $100,000.’4 The final report heavily qualified this approach, but not because any consensus was reached: ‘The outcome of it all was that the IPCC is very reluctant to engage in that controversy again because the proponents on both sides are still there and obviously still willing to have another fight if the opportunity was given to them.’5 And in preparing subsequent reports, the IPCC has attached less importance to ubiquitous monetary valuation.


Falter: Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out? by Bill McKibben

23andMe, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, American Legislative Exchange Council, Anne Wojcicki, artificial general intelligence, Bernie Sanders, Bill Joy: nanobots, Burning Man, call centre, carbon footprint, Charles Lindbergh, clean water, Colonization of Mars, computer vision, David Attenborough, Donald Trump, double helix, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, ending welfare as we know it, energy transition, Flynn Effect, Google Earth, Hyperloop, impulse control, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, life extension, light touch regulation, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, megacity, Menlo Park, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, obamacare, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, plutocrats, Plutocrats, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, Robert Mercer, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, smart meter, Snapchat, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, supervolcano, technoutopianism, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, traffic fines, Travis Kalanick, urban sprawl, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Y Combinator, Y2K, yield curve

Throughout the Holocene (the ten-thousand-year period that began as the last ice age ceased, the stretch that encompasses all recorded human history), the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere stayed stable, and therefore so did the sea level, and hence it took a while for people to worry about sea level rise. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted in 2003 that sea level should rise a mere half meter by the end of the twenty-first century, most of that coming because warm water takes up more space than cold, and while a half meter would be enough to cause expense and trouble, it wouldn’t really interfere with settlement patterns.16 But even as the IPCC scientists made that estimate, they cautioned that it didn’t take into account the possible melt of the great ice sheets over Greenland and Antarctica. And pretty much everything we’ve learned in the years since makes scientists think that those ice sheets are horribly vulnerable.

See also atmospheric temperature Heisenberg, Werner He Jiankui Helgesen, Xavier heliophore Helios 2 probe Hendrix, Amanda Hickman, William Himalayas Hinduism Hitler, Adolf Hobbes, Thomas Hobbie J (smart mouse) Holocene epoch homelessness hookworm horseshoe crabs Hot Air Tour Housing and Urban Development, Department of (HUD) Houston Howarth, Robert Hsu, Stephen Hubbard, Alun Hudson Bay Hudson Motors human cognitive ability human nature Humanzee humidity hurricanes Florence Harvey Ireland and Scotland and Katrina Maria Sandy hydroelectric dams IBM Ice Age Iceland ice sheets. See also glaciers; sea ice iGen immune systems Inconvenient Truth, An (film) Inconvenient Truth … or Convenient Fiction, An (film) India individualism Indonesia inequality inertia infant mortality Ingraffea, Tony insects InsideClimateNews (website) Institute for Justice Intel Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Interior, Department of the International Congress of Genetics, Sixteenth International Organization for Migration International Space Station internet Inuit Iowa IQ scores Iran Iraq Ireland irrigation Italy IVF treatment Jackson, Jesse Jacobs, Jane Jacobson, Mark Jaeger, John Jakarta Japan Java Sea jellyfish Jenner, Kylie Jeopardy! (TV show) Jetnil-Kijiner, Kathy Jobs, Steve John Birch Society Johnson, Lyndon B.

But the important thing to remember is that it all happened behind closed doors, in meetings confined to a few scientists and officials.1 The world, its leaders and its citizens, effectively knew nothing of the threat until the hot June day in 1988 when a mid-career NASA scientist named James Hansen testified before a Senate committee that “the greenhouse effect has been detected and it is changing our climate now.”2 In the weeks that followed, members of Congress introduced the National Energy Policy Act to “address … heat-trapping gases produced in burning fossil fuels.” The world’s atmospheric scientists announced the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to track the crisis. And Vice President George H. W. Bush, in the midst of a successful campaign for the White House, announced that he would “fight the greenhouse effect with the White House effect.” It looked like America meant business, that a response was starting to take shape. But, as it turned out, that didn’t really happen. In the three decades since, global carbon emissions have nearly doubled.


pages: 338 words: 104,684

The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy by Stephanie Kelton

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, blockchain, Bretton Woods, business cycle, capital controls, central bank independence, collective bargaining, COVID-19, Covid-19, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, discrete time, Donald Trump, eurozone crisis, fiat currency, floating exchange rates, Food sovereignty, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global supply chain, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, inflation targeting, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), investor state dispute settlement, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, liquidity trap, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, market bubble, Mason jar, mortgage debt, Naomi Klein, new economy, New Urbanism, Nixon shock, obamacare, open economy, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, price stability, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, trade liberalization, urban planning, working-age population, Works Progress Administration, yield curve, zero-sum game

Richard “Skip” Bronson, “Homeless and Empty Homes—an American Travesty,” Huffpost, May 25, 2011, www.huffpost.com/entry/post_733_b_692546. 44. IPCC, Global Warming of 1.5º C, Special Report, United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018, www.ipcc.ch/sr15/. 45. Nathan Hultman, “We’re Almost Out of Time: The Alarming IPCC Climate Report and What to Do Next,” Brookings Institution, October 16, 2018, www.brookings.edu/opinions/were-almost-out-of-time-the-alarming-ipcc-climate-report-and-what-to-do-next/. 46. Umair Irfan, “Report: We Have Just 12 Years to Limit Devastating Global Warming,” Vox, October 8, 2018, www.vox.com/2018/10/8/17948832/climate-change-global-warming-un-ipcc-report. 47. Brandon Miller and Jay Croft, “Planet Has Only Until 2030 to Stem Catastrophic Climate Change, Experts Warn,” CNN, October 8, 2018, www.cnn.com/2018/10/07/world/climate-change-new-ipcc-report-wxc/index.html. 48.

The science indicates that, to avoid the worst climate change scenarios, we need to limit global warming over this century to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Current plans, however, would only limit the temperature rise to 3 or 4 degrees Celsius above that threshold. What happens if we fail to close the gap between where we are and where we need to be? The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) paint a dire picture: rising sea levels, more drastic flooding, more severe droughts, stronger storms and hurricanes, and heat waves leading to many more deaths. Many coastal cities and communities around the world could become unlivable, and significant climate pattern shifts could upend crops and freshwater supplies, leading to hundreds of millions of new climate refugees.

But the most likely business-as-usual scenarios do suggest global poverty reduction could be set back decades, which intrinsically means hundreds of millions of additional deaths.61 But then, that’s assuming the consensus of the IPCC reports isn’t significantly underestimating the danger.62 These are only the most likely scenarios; we may be underestimating the cascade effects and feedback loops, meaning there’s a small but real chance that business as usual will lead to far more catastrophic results. “We’re already at 1 degree warming and seeing some significant impacts,” Hultman wrote, summing up the IPCC’s conclusions. “1.5 degrees is going to have more severe impacts; 2 degrees has more; and we probably don’t want to test what happens above 2 degrees—although our current momentum appears to have us on a trajectory for about a 3 degrees or more world.”


pages: 369 words: 98,776

The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas

Airbus A320, back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Haber-Bosch Process, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Negawatt, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, planetary scale, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, Stewart Brand, undersea cable, University of East Anglia

; descent of; birth of; brain development; drive hominid relatives to oblivion; Pleistocene overkill and Hudson River Huhne, Chris Hurricane Katrina Hybrid: The History and Science of Plant Breeding (Kingsbury) hydroelectric dams/power hydrogen as fuel hydrological cycle hydrological engineering Independent India: carbon emissions; alternatives to high carbon aviation; hydroelectricity in; vultures in; pollution in; black carbon and; Copenhagen summit and Indonesia Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) International Energy Agency (IEA) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Whaling Commission (IWC) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) irrigation Israel IUCN Red List J. Craig Venter Center Jackson, Jeremy Jacobson, Mark Japan: earthquake and tsunami, 2011; climate change in; Fukushima disaster, 2011 Jordan River Journal of Geophysical Research keystone/apex predators Kruger, Tim Kunin, Professor Bill Kyoto Protocol, 1997 Labrador Sea Lake District Lake Powell land use boundary; human impact on; importance of ecological zones; a plan for land; protected land; global value of wilderness; intensification of farming and; integrated pest management; agroforestry; aquaculture; meat and energy; REDD; population growth and urbanization Leipold, Gerd Lenton, Tim Les Rois Liberal Democratic Party life, creating new forms of; origin of Limits to Growth report, 1972 Lovelock, James Lovins, Amory Lucas, Caroline Madagascar Mahli, Yadvinder malaria Maldives: levy on diving trips considered; climate change and; Copenhagen summit and; pledges carbon neutrality Malua Forest Reserve mass extinctions Max Planck Institute McKibben, Bill McNeill, John megacities “megafauna fruit” Mekong delta mercury Merkel, Angela Met Office Hadley Centre, U.K.

Another difference between ozone and climate is that authoritative scientific assessments have not been as successful in convincing naysayers about the latter as they were with the former. This is not due to any shortcomings in the scientific process: Evidence about the reality of global warming is far more overwhelming today than it was about the threat to the ozone layer in the mid-1980s. Nor have the experts failed to speak with one voice: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has delivered unimpeachably weighty assessments over the years, underlining its growing confidence about the science on climate change. But with climate the reactionary backlash has been unprecedentedly successful. It is almost forgotten now, but there was a denialist backlash against ozone regulation too, centered in the U.S. in the mid-1990s, which swayed some important politicians.

Deniers promoting the so-called “Climategate” affair took a few out-of-context quotes and superficially embarrassing private slips by leading scientists from some leaked emails and nearly managed to publicly discredit not only the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia but several other leading institutes too. Vociferous promoters of a subsequent scandal took a single mistake about Himalayan glaciers, buried deep in the second weighty tome of the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, and used it to attack the entire IPCC process, and the role of Chair Rajendra Pachauri in particular. None of this changed anything we knew—anything that mattered—about the reality of climate change, but the deniers succeeded in making climate science an ideological battleground, where the expert consensus was rejected by whole political parties and large sections of the media as itself partisan. The failure of climate policymaking has been a self-reinforcing process.


pages: 433 words: 124,454

The Burning Answer: The Solar Revolution: A Quest for Sustainable Power by Keith Barnham

Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, carbon footprint, credit crunch, decarbonisation, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, Ernest Rutherford, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Kickstarter, Naomi Klein, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, Richard Feynman, Schrödinger's Cat, Silicon Valley, Stephen Hawking, the scientific method, uranium enrichment, wikimedia commons

This means that Pauli’s principle gives the exact number of electrons in a full orbit. 1931 Wilson publishes his theory of semiconductors. 1947 Bardeen, Brattain and Shockley start the semiconductor revolution by demonstrating a transistor that involves electron conduction and also positive conduction in a nearly full valence band. 1954 Chapin, Fuller and Pearson demonstrate a 6 per cent efficient silicon solar cell. 1973 Solar Power Corporation reduce the price of silicon PV panels fivefold in two years by using crystals rejected by the silicon chip industry. 1978 Handheld calculators appear on the market powered by amorphous silicon thin film solar cells. 1990 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to global warming. 1994 The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) produces a GaAs-based, two-junction cell with efficiency higher than any single junction PV cell. Japan launches a 70,000-roof PV programme. 1998 Germany initiates a 100,000-roof programme. 2000 The feed-in-tariff (FIT) is introduced in Germany for most forms of renewable energy. 2002 More than 90 per cent of all new homes in Sweden are equipped with a heat pump. 2004 The price of PV panels stops falling. The expanding PV industry is using as much silicon as the semiconductor industry is rejecting. 2007 Spectrolab manufacture a 40 per cent efficient triple junction cell. IPCC predict how fast the size of the Arctic ice cap will shrink. 2009 The fall in PV panel price resumes as the second-generation thin film producer First Solar becomes first company to produce 1 GW of PV panels in a year.

Ralph is the son of Charles Keeling, who found an accurate way to measure this relatively small proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere in 1958. You can follow day-by-day measurement of CO2 level in the atmosphere from Mauna Loa Observatory on the Keeling Curve site at Scripps Institution of Oceanography [11]. The 2013 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which presented the convincing evidence that humankind is responsible for most of the global warming, is reference 12. If you, or anyone you are discussing with, still doubts this, compare two graphs: Figure SPM.1a in the IPCC report (the measured rise in global temperature averaged over a decade) and the Keeling curve graph for years 1700 to the present date. Both of them start an upward trend around 1900 when oil started to be seriously exploited. The carbon dioxide graph starts rising faster around the 1960s.

air conditioning, 286, 366 solar-powered, 283, 285–7 use of heat pumps, 201–2 air source heat pumps, 203–4, 343–4 incentives for, 292 alien civilisations, 2, 18, 127, 269–70, 323 alpha radiation, 75, 77 amorphous silicon, 131 Ampère, André-Marie, 26 Ampère’s law, 31 Maxwell’s addition, 31–6 amplifiers, 43–4 anaerobic digestion (AD), 182–4, 206–7, 309 Arctic ice caps, shrinkage, 152, 313, 368 Aresta, Michele, 361 Areva, 227, 305–6, 370 argon, electron orbits, 64 artificial leaf, 265–70, 284, 269, 310, 361 Atkins, Peter, 325 Atlantic Array offshore wind farm, 303–4, 370 atmosphere, carbon dioxide concentrations, 150, 254, 313, 370 atom, splitting of see nuclear fission atomic structure, 13–14, 27 Rutherford’s work, 57–8, 75 Bohr’s work, 56–9 Schrödinger equation, 64–65 Pauli principle, 61–2 ‘Atoms for Peace’, 86 balance-of-systems cost, PV installations, 189 band-gap energy, 106 direct band-gap, 132 indirect band-gap problem, 129–32; solutions, 131–2, 133–4 Bang, Mads, 360 banks, shareholder campaigns, 279–81 Barber, Jim, 261, 262–3, 361 Bardeen, John, 118, 311 Bath and West Community Energy group, 208, 346–7 batteries, electric cars, 240, 241 Becquerel, Henri, 75 Beerten, Jef, 183, 185, 342 Bellis, Mary, 358 Benn, Tony, 89, 331 beta radiation, 75 big bang, 12 biogas (biomethane), 205–7, 274, 346 production, 198, 208–9, 313 biogas electricity generators, 178–9 carbon footprint, 178–9 Kombikraftwerk project, 154–61, 163 biological solar fuels, 264–5 biomass electricity generators, 178–9 carbon footprint, 178–9 Blyth, William, 353 Bohr, Niels, 56–65, 311, 357 boron, as a diversity atom, 110–13 Boyle, Willard, 128 BP Solar, 228–9 Brattain, Walter, 118, 311, 335 Braun, Carl, 42–4, 311 British Nuclear Fuels Limited (BNFL), 90–1 Browne, John, 228–9, 352 Bruton, Tim, 229 Bryson, Bill, A Short History of Nearly Everything, 3 burning definition of, 17 when it began, 19 Burns, Ciaran, 346 cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar cells, 132, 229 Calder Hall reactor, 87–8 Cambrian explosion, 16, 325 Cameron, David, 230, 353 Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND), Sizewell Working Group, 90 campaigning groups, 364 carbon, diamond crystals, 100–2 carbon dioxide capture by photosynthesis, 261, 263–5 concentrations in the atmosphere, 150, 313, 370 direct capture from the air, 254–9, 360–1 as a greenhouse gas, 152–3 carbon dioxide emissions Climate Change Committee recommendations, 181, 212 International Energy Agency analysis, 353 lobbying for limits, 278 carbon footprints biomass–biogas cycle, 178–9 of natural gas electricity generation, 181–3 of nuclear electricity, 183–7 of solar fuels, 253 Carboniferous period, 16 carbon molecules, diversity, 71 carbon-neutral communities, 207, 208 Carnot, Sadi, 197–8 catalysts 247–9, 253 cavity radiation 49–51 central heating systems, 195–9 CERN, 219, 236, 295, 367 Chadwick, James, 75–6, 331 chain reaction, nuclear fission, 81 Chapin, Daryl, 124, 311 charged coupled devices (CCDs), 128–9 Chatten, Amanda, 267 China air conditioning, 285–7 solar panel manufacture, 189, 312 solar revolution, 293–5, 366 civil plutonium, military use, 90–2 Climate Change Committee (CCC), recommendations on carbon dioxide emissions, 181, 212 Clive, Barry, 285, 366 CMOS (Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor), 120 coal, formation of, 16 coincidences, Einstein cusp, 2 electron proton charge, 25 every visible photon, 123 raising electron to band, 110 raising electron from band, 111 temperature of sun, 123–4 combined heat and power (CHP), 179–80 geothermal energy, 174 J V Energen, 205–6 solar CPV , 141 combined power plants, Kombikraftwerk project, 154–61 community power schemes, 161, 207–8, 275, 346 complementary resources, wind power, 146–9 comparemysolar, comparison site 189–91, 344 computers, development of, 120–1 concentrating solar power (CSP), 168 DESERTEC project, 283–5 concentrator photovoltaics (CPV), 141, 168, 191 and carbon dioxide capture, 257–8 potential in sun-rich countries, 287, 289–90 recharging electric cars, 245 tracking systems, 292 conduction bands metals, 103 semiconductors, 106 conductors, 98 quantum picture of, 102–4 conservation of energy, 46, 200 ‘contracts for difference’, nuclear power, 227, 303 copper-indium diselenide (CIS) solar cells, 132 core of the earth, 170 Cornell study on shale gas extraction, 224–5 cost of biogas electricity, 309 cost of nuclear power, 157, 161, 183 cost of solar power, 156–9, 344 household PV panels, 188–90 cost of wind power, offshore, 305, 3720 onshore, 189, 344 Cox, Brian, 3, 323 Curie, Marie, 75 Curie, Pierre, 75 current, electrical, 27 Dawkins, Richard, 325 de Broglie, Louis, 60–1, 311 de Forest, Lee, 43 Denmark, combined heat and power schemes, 180 community power schemes, 207, 346 target 2050, all renewable, 211–2, 349 use of renewable resources, 174, 252 Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), Renewable Energy Roadmap (2011), 171, 340 ‘Pathways to 2050’, 216–7 depleted uranium, military use, 93, 332 DESERTEC project, 283–5 deuterium, 82 diamond as an insulator, 100–2 refraction of light, 104 Dickens’s equation, 29–30 digital cameras, 127–8 diodes, 113–4, 334–5 see also light emitting diodes (LEDs) Dirac, Paul, 62, 67, 311 direct action, 281 distributed generation (micro-generation), 127, 274, 277 see also community power schemes diversity atoms (dopants), 109–13, 335 diversity diodes, 115–6, 118, 335 in transistors, 118–21 dual-conductors, 113, 335 see also semiconductors Duggan, Geoff, 294, 367 Durrant, James, 361 dynamos, 39 E = hf, 2–4, 53–5 Einstein’s interpretation, 55–8 and electron orbits, 59 E = mc2, 2–4 meaning of, 46–7 earth history of, 16, 17–19 surface temperature, 150–1 EDF, open letter to, 302–6 Einstein, Albert, 3, 36, 236 interpretation of E = hf, 55–8, 311 and nuclear weapons, 87 see also E = mc2 electric cars, 235, 240 fuel cells, 246–7, 360 fuel efficiency, 244 history of, 241–2 information sources, 358–9 present-day use, 242–3 recharging, 244, 245 ‘electric eyes’ (photodetectors), 124–5 electric fields, 24–6, 99 electricity early use of, 39–40 as flow of electrons, 99 generation of, 38–9; Faraday’s Law, 27–8; modern methods, 40 electricity costs Germany, wholesale PV 158–9, 307 savings from PV panels, 190 southern Italy, 157 electricity demand, variation through the day, 154–5 electric motors, 39 electrolysis, 249 electromagnetic waves, 35 energy of; Planck’s work, 52–3; Rayleigh’s work, 50–1 generation and detection, 41–2 Maxwell’s discovery of, 23–4 electromagnetism, 36 electronics, impact on Second World War, 97–8 electron orbits, 58–9 2, 8, 8 mystery, 65–7 and reactivity of elements, 63–5 Schrödinger’s wave equation, 61–2 stability of, 67–9 electrons, 11, 25 behaviour in crystals, 101–2 behaviour in insulators, 102 behaviour in metals, 102–4 uncertainty principle, 63–4 electron spin, 62, 67 electron waves, 60–1, 63 electroweak force, 37–8 elements, 11 formation in stars, 12–14 reactivity, 63–5 Elliott, David, 217, 325 energy, 46 conservation of, 46, 200 relationship to power, 5–6 units of, 7 energy efficiency, 179–80 Energy Savings Trust, 180, 190, 196, 345 Englert, François, 296 environmental groups, 275 equations Dickens’s equations, 29–30 E = hf, meaning of, 52–5 E=mc2, meaning of, 46–7 Maxwell’s, 28–9, 30–1, 327; application of, 38–40 wave equations, 34 ethanol carbon footprint, 253 safety of, 252–3 ‘Ethanol Economy’, 253 problems with, 269 ethanol fuel cells, 252–3 European Power Reactor (EPR), construction costs, 185, 304, 344 evolution, 16–17, 260–1, 262–3 exclusion principle, Wolfgang Pauli, 66–7 exponential expansion of PV power, 162–3 Fairlie, Ian, 331 Faraday, Michael, 21, 25, 39 generation of electrical power, 27–8 Faraday’s law, 30 feed-in-tariff (FIT) policies, 162–4, 277 Germany, 210, 338 United Kingdom, 350 Feldheim, Germany, first carbon neutral community, 207, 346 Fermi, Enrico splitting of the atom, 77–8, 80 work on Manhattan Project, 83 fermions, 77 fertilisers, production by anaerobic digestion, 206 Feynman, Richard, 67, 69, 70, 86, 327 on conduction, 97, 99, 103 on electron sharing, 68, 329 field-effect transistor, 119–20 Film4Sun, 286–7, 366 Finding, Nick, 205, 346 Finney, David, 217 first law of thermodynamics, see thermodynamics First Solar, 132–3, 229, 312 First World War, 59 flat dwellers, solar power options, 191–2 Fleming, John Ambrose, 43 Forshaw, Jeff, 3, 323 fossil fuel industry development of solar fuels, 279–81 influences, 39–40 open letter to, 308–10 fossil fuel lobby, 230–1, 352–3 fossil fuels depletion of reserves, 18 formation of, 16, 17 quantum bonding, 70–2 fossil fuel subsidies, 230–1, 278, 308, 353 Frack Off, environmental action group, 275 fracking, 223–5, 276, 301, 352 Fraunhofer laboratories, 218–19 frequency of waves, 48 Friends of the Earth, environmental action group, 275, 369 Frisch, Otto, 79, 80, 330 fuel cells, 235, 246–7 in electric cars, 240, 242, 248–50 information sources, 359–60 methanol and ethanol, 253–3 predictions, 314 Fukushima nuclear disaster, 18, 306, 325 consequences for nuclear power industry, 157, 211, 227, 228, 238, 312 Fuller, Calvin, 124, 311 fundamental forces electromagnetism, 35–6 electroweak force, 37 fusion bomb project, 86 fusion research, 175, 273, 361, 363 Gabriel, Joseph, 334 gallium arsenide (GaAs), 133 alloys, 135 quantum wells, 138–9 in third generation solar cells, 140 Gallium Arsenide Street, 138 gallium nitride LEDs, 136 gamma radiation, 75 gas see biogas; natural gas gas molecules, energy distribution, 52 Gasplasma, 206 Gauss, Carl Friedrich, 30 geothermal energy, 74–5, 170–1 combined heat and power (CHP), 174 as a nuclear technology, 174–5 sustainability, 171–4 Germany biogas electricity generation, 179 community power schemes, 207, 346 cost of solar power, 157–8, 159, 305 expansion of PV power, 161–3, 312, 337 expansion of wind power, 164 feed-in-tariff (FIT) policy, 162, 338 Kombikraftwerk project, 154–6 national grid, 160 national laboratories, 218–20 photovoltaic power programme, 95 political influences, 209–11 target 2050, all solar electricity, 179, 211 use of renewable energy, 5 Gill, Ed, 193, 345 global warming, 1, 17, 306, 307, 315 action on, 313–14 explanation of, 151–2 information sources, 370–1 potential impact of fracking, 224–5 Goeppert, Alain, 253 Goldhaber, Gerson, 69 Good Energy, 192–3, 345 Gore, A1, 166, 340 gravity, 47 Green Electricity Market Place, 192, 345 Greenfield Energy, 346 green gas see biogas greenhouse effect, 152 greenhouse gases, 152 see also carbon dioxide; methane greenhouses, solar-powered, 288 Greenpeace, environmental action group, 275, 281 Gribbin, John, 328 grid parity, 156–7, 158–9 ground source heat pumps, 198–203, 292, 345–6 incentives for, 277 Grove, William, 246 Hahn, Otto, 78–9 Haslam, David, 364 Hassard, John, 177, 341 Hawking, Stephen, 2, 29, 323 heat energy, 49 as means of energy storage, 154 heat exchangers, 199 Heath, Garvin, 183–4, 185, 342 heating air source heat pumps, 203–4 biogas supplies, 205–7 electrical systems, 195–6 ground source heat pumps, 198–203 heat pumps, 197–8, 345–6 air source, 203–4 ground source, 198–203 incentives for, 277 reversible, 201 use by supermarket chain, 201–2 use in Sweden, 201 Heede, Richard, 365 Heisenberg, Werner, uncertainty principle, 62–3, 68 helium atomic structure, 11 electron orbit, 64 formation in stars, 12 Hertz, Heinrich, 41–2, 311 Hesketh, Ross, 90, 331 Higgs, Peter, 296 Higgs boson, 295–6, 367 high electron mobility transistor (HEMT), 139 Hill Robert, 290 Hinkley Point A reactors, 90 Hinkley Point C reactors, construction costs, 185–7 information sources, 372–3 open letter to stakeholders of EDF, 302–6 projected costs, 160 Hoffmann, Peter, 359 ‘holes’ (positrons), 108–9, 114 household PV panels, 153–4 cost, 188–90 information sources, 344–5 recharging electric cars, 244–5 solutions for less suitable roofs, 190–2 human evolution and development, 17 hybrid cars, 241–2 hydrogen fuel cells, 248–50 methanol/ethanol fuel cells, 251–2 hydrocarbon molecules, 71–2 hydrogen atomic structure, 11 isotopes, 82 production of, 248–9, 267, 314 quantum bonding, 67–8 safety of, 249–50 hydrogen bomb, 86 hydrogen fuel cells, 248, 359 in electric cars, 248–50 hydropower, 125 carbon footprint, 182 construction costs, 185 energy storage, 156, 160 large-scale, 168–9 small-scale, 169 HydroVenturi technology, 177 ice caps, shrinkage, 152, 312, 313, 370 Iceland, use of renewable resources, 211, 290–1, 349 impurity atoms, 107 benefits of diversity, 109–13 indirect band-gap problem, 129–30 solutions, 131–2, 133–4 Industrial Revolution, 20–1, 197 infrared catastrophe, 58 insulators, 98–100 quantum picture of, 100–2 integrated circuits, 119 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 312, 371 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 296, 297 367 International Energy Agency (IEA), carbon emission origins, 224, 353 one-third fossil fuel reserves, 227, 314, 352 Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS), 95, 332 subsidies, 230–1, 353 International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), 297 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 297, 367 international solar laboratory, 295–8 inverters, 286 Iran, potential of solar technology, 300–1 isotopes, 81–2 of hydrogen, 82 see also tritium of uranium, 82–3 Israeli-Palestine conflict, potential of solar technology, 300 Italy cost of solar power, 157 photovoltaic power use, 95 speed of PV power expansion, 163 Japan Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs, 85 photovoltaic power programme, 95 see also Fukushima nuclear disaster Jews, persecution of, 77 Joliot-Curie, Frederic, 81 Joliot-Curie, Irene, 78, 79 Jungk, Robert, Brighter than a Thousand Suns, 77, 78, 79, 80, 84, 85, 237–8, 330 J V Energen, 206 Keeling, Charles, 370 Keeling, Ralph, 370 Kelsall, Geoff, 267 Kelvin, Lord, 197–8, 345 Kennedy, Robert F.


pages: 520 words: 129,887

Power Hungry: The Myths of "Green" Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future by Robert Bryce

addicted to oil, Bernie Madoff, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, cleantech, collateralized debt obligation, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Menlo Park, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks

Between 1990 and 2009, India’s electricity production nearly tripled, reaching 834.3 terawatt-hours in 2008, and about 68 percent of that power generation now comes from the burning of coal.42 But even with the huge increases in power production, 40 percent of Indian homes still don’t have electricity and 60 percent of Indian industrial firms rely on alternate forms of generation because the power grid isn’t reliable.43 India is tired of lagging behind the rest of the world. That message was made clear by none other than Rajendra Pachauri, the Indian academic who chairs the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In July 2009, Pachauri asked reporters, “Can you imagine 400 million people who do not have a light bulb in their homes?” And he went on to explain where India was going to be getting its future power: “You cannot, in a democracy, ignore some of these realities and as it happens with the resources of coal that India has, we really don’t have any choice but to use coal.”44 The necessity of coal in developing countries was made clear in October 2009 by none other than U.S.

deforestation in electricity generation in and energy consumption(fig.) and energy intensity(fig.) need for increased electricity in and nuclear power power consumption in(fig.) ranking of, by GDP and electricity generation(table) Industrial Revolution Infant mortality rates Innumeracy, issue of Inpex Holdings Institute for 21st Century Energy Institute for Fusion Studies Institution of Mechanical Engineers Integrated energy parks Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International Energy Agency (IEA) on carbon capture and sequestration on decarbonization on demand in the oil market on emissions on estimated global gas resources on gas-fired capacity on global gas resources on global liquified natural gas production on the growth of renewables on nuclear power on oil demand and GDP on peak oil on projected costs for new electricity generation plants(fig.)

In fact, some environmental activists have decided that the optimum level of carbon dioxide in the global atmosphere should be 350 parts per million. (By late 2009, the concentration was about 390 parts per million.) On October 24, 2009, the supporters of the 350 parts per million target conducted more than 4,000 synchronized demonstrations around the world. Their aim: to build a “global community” to support the 350 ppm goal.18 The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri, has said he is “fully supportive” of the 350 ppm goal.19 In November 2009, former vice president Al Gore, appearing on the Late Show with David Letterman, declared that unless the people of the world took drastic action to curb carbon dioxide emissions, it could be “the end of civilization as we know it.”20 Gore may be right. It’s also possible that he’s wrong.


pages: 411 words: 108,119

The Irrational Economist: Making Decisions in a Dangerous World by Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Paul Slovic

"Robert Solow", Andrei Shleifer, availability heuristic, bank run, Black Swan, business cycle, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cross-subsidies, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, endowment effect, experimental economics, financial innovation, Fractional reserve banking, George Akerlof, hindsight bias, incomplete markets, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, iterative process, Kenneth Arrow, Loma Prieta earthquake, London Interbank Offered Rate, market bubble, market clearing, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, placebo effect, price discrimination, price stability, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, source of truth, statistical model, stochastic process, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, urban planning, Vilfredo Pareto

This proposal, known as the Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII), offers a practical way of building an international regime for social protection. WEATHER EXTREMES: WHY THE POOR SUFFER THE MOST The impacts of natural hazards on economic well-being have escalated alarmingly in recent decades. Although increased population and wealth in vulnerable areas remain the main factors in explaining rising losses, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that extreme event impacts are “very likely” to change because of increasing weather variability.3 There is even mounting evidence of a current “climate signal,” with the IPCC (2007) reporting observations of widespread changes in temperature, wind patterns, and aspects of extreme weather, including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves, and the intensity of tropical cyclones. With over 95 percent of disaster fatalities and far greater relative economic losses occurring in low- and middle-income countries, the poor suffer the most (see Figure 25.1).

Hurricane Betsy Hurricane Camille Hurricane Diane Hurricane Hugo, insured losses from Hurricane Ike Hurricane Katrina floods of government aid following impact of insured losses from Mississippi Gulf Coast and New Orleans and policy innovation and recovery from reinsurance/actuarial value after (table) Hurricane Rita, reinsurance/actuarial value after(table) Hurricane Wilma, reinsurance/actuarial value after(table) Hurricanes damage from fiscal deficits and reinsurance against risk for tourism economy and Incentives Inconvenient Truth, An (Gore) Influenza pandemics Information asymmetric as commodity economic assumption of interpreting/manipulating limited meaning of measuring acquisition of processing seeking value of Infrastructure Management and Extreme Events Program Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) Institutions, reinventing Insurance accident adequate auto benefits/costs/challenges of buying car rental catastrophe contracts crop decisions about deposit development assistance and disaster assistance and earthquake efficiency and excessive fire flight government health index-based homeowners Insurance (continued) hurricane international support for life long-term low-deductible mitigation and mortgage municipal bond prevention and pricing pricing (risk-based) principles private public relief and risk and subsidized terrorism underinsurance unemployment vouchers Insurance Assistance Facility Insurance contracts long-term short-term Insurer solvency, thoughts on Integrated Assessment Models Interdependence growth of weak links and Interdependent security (IDS) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Intervention Intuition moral Investment “Irrational Economist, The” conference Irrationality Jaffee, Dwight Johnson, Eric Johnson, Lyndon environmental issues and Johnson, Steven Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Judgment Just-in-time society Just, Richard Kahneman, Daniel Kasperson, Roger Keelin, Tom Keeney, Ralph Kennedy, John F.

But as indicated by the above-cited remark he made to the Sierra Club, Nixon saw that the times required environmental action and provided the voting public with what it wanted. On the one hand, the times we’re in today are rather like the 1960s and early 1970s: There is again a widespread intuition that we are doing something potentially disastrous to the environment. There is nobody as eloquent as Rachel Carson in Silent Spring, but Al Gore’s documentary An Inconvenient Truth and his Nobel Prize have had an impact, as have the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Stern Review, other official bodies emphasizing the changes we are forcing in our most basic environmental systems, and the stream of television documentaries about the threats to forests and marine life. On the other hand, there is a major difference between the environmental issues we face today and those that precipitated the flurry of legislation under Johnson and Nixon.


pages: 560 words: 158,238

Fifty Degrees Below by Kim Stanley Robinson

airport security, bioinformatics, Burning Man, clean water, Donner party, full employment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, iterative process, means of production, minimum wage unemployment, North Sea oil, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Feynman, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, the scientific method

This year, however, the party had been somewhat taken over by the Inuit nation Nunavut, in conjunction with the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, who had declared this “The Year of Global Environmental Awareness,” and sent out hundreds of invitations, and provided many ships themselves, in the hope of gathering a floating community that would emphasize to all the world the undeniable changes already wrought by global warming. The organizers were willing to accept the risk of making the gathering look like a party, or even God forbid a celebration of global warming, in order to garner as much publicity as possible. Of course a whole new ocean to sail on was no doubt an exciting thing for sailors, but all that missing winter ice was floating down into the North Atlantic at that very moment, changing everything. IPCC wanted people to see with their own eyes that abrupt climate change was already upon them, and that it could soon cast the entire world into thousands of years of bad weather, as it had during the Younger Dryas just eleven thousand years before.

Usually representatives from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were on hand, and the discussions had a curiously suspended or hypothetical air; if Diane were the American president or a representative of his, they would have been more intent perhaps to press their positions; as it was they knew they were dealing with a kind of shadow government figure, or with the amorphous scientific community out there beyond the government, which Diane might be said to represent. She understood this and dealt with it using a kind of tightrope-walking tact, diplomatic and attractive; there were things NSF could do, and things it might do, were the political climate to change; and the physical climate changes might drive the political ones. After these meetings, it was the IPCC crowd itself who stayed on in the meeting rooms.

That was the only thing that would make staying in Washington bearable. He focused on her list: • Coordinate already existing federal programs • Establish new institutes and programs where necessary • Work with Sophie Harper, NSF’s congressional liaison officer, to contact and educate all the relevant Congressional committees and staffs, and help craft appropriate legislation • Work with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN Environmental Program, its Millennial Project, and other international efforts • Identify, evaluate, and rank all potential climate mitigation possibilities: clean energy, carbon sequestration, etc. This last item, to Frank, would create the real Things To Do list. “We’ll have to go to New York and talk to people about that stuff,” Diane said. “Yes.” It would be interesting to watch her there.


Battling Eight Giants: Basic Income Now by Guy Standing

basic income, Bernie Sanders, centre right, collective bargaining, decarbonisation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, full employment, future of work, Gini coefficient, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, labour market flexibility, Lao Tzu, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, open economy, pension reform, precariat, quantitative easing, rent control, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, universal basic income, Y Combinator

The perils of rapid climate change have become only too clear, with Britain too facing disruption of weather patterns, droughts, floods and the threat of rising sea levels. All mainstream political parties have committed to the country’s pledge under the Paris Agreement of 2015 to slash CO2 emissions by 2030. But existing policies fall far short of what is needed to honour our national pledge. Moreover, in 2018, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed that to avoid massive and dangerous environmental destruction the world should be aiming to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C, rather than the 2°C targeted by the Paris Agreement. Yet, without urgent and decisive action, we will hit the critical 1.5°C temperature rise from pre-industrial levels by 2030. Rapid decarbonization is the only way forward. One necessary measure is a substantial increase in carbon taxes.

See also individual entries definition 1, 4–8 reasons for need 8–9 security 98, 113, 114 system 1, 20, 23, 26, 32, 37, 52, 70, 84, 90–1, 122 n.7 Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN) 94 behavioural conditionality 70, 73, 77, 114 behaviour-testing 4, 39, 70, 84 benefits 5, 7, 27 conditional schemes 41 social assistance 23 BET365 11 Beveridge, William 8–9, 38 Beveridge model 21 Big Bang liberalization 18 BJP 92 black economy 40, 60 B-Mincome 99–100 Booker, Cory 101 brain development 98–9 132 Branson, Richard 54 Brexit 53 Britain 6, 8–10, 12–18, 20, 23–4, 26–7, 30–1, 33–4, 37–8, 40–2, 55, 57, 59, 90, 101, 104, 112 British Columbia 95 British Constitution 1 Buck, Karen 57 bureaucracy 40, 49, 100, 102 Bureau of Economic Analysis 16 Business Property Relief 58 California 69, 96–7 Canada 35 capacity-to-work tests 6, 104 cap-and-trade approach 34 Capita 50 capital dividend 59 capital fund 89–90 capital grants 59, 75, 76, 92 carbon dividends 37 carbon emissions 33–4 carbon tax 34–5, 37 care deficit 53 care work 36, 53, 67, 74, 84 cash payments 111 cash transfers 99 ‘casino dividend’ schemes 88 charities 48 The Charter of the Forest (1217) 1 Chicago 99 Child Benefit 57, 58, 72, 123 n.4 childcare 99, 110–11 child development 88 Child Tax Credits 81 chronic psychological stress 26 Citizens Advice 46–8 Citizen’s Basic Income Trust 7, 122 n.7, 123 n.4 citizenship rights 1, 29 civil society organizations 79 Index climate change 34 Clinton, Hillary 126 n.4 Clinton, Bill 105 Coalition government 41, 50 cognitive performance 33 collateral damage 53 common dividends 7, 20, 21, 59–60, 69, 73, 75, 83, 84, 85 Commons Fund 8, 35, 57, 59, 89 community cohesion 3 resilience 23 work 84 ‘community payback’ schemes 102 Compass 59 compensation 2, 7, 16, 104 ‘concealed debt’ 24–5 conditional cash transfer schemes 90 Conservative government 9, 85 Conservatives 23 consumer credit 24 consumption 23 contractual obligations 46 Coote, Anna 113 cost of living 25, 49, 52, 83 council house sales 76 council tax 25 Crocker, Geoff 122 n.15 cross-party plans 80 crowd-funded schemes 100 deadweight effects 102 ‘deaths of despair’ 27 Deaton, Angus 10 debt 23–6, 67, 85 debt collection practices 24–5 decarbonization 34 dementia 33 democratic values 69 Democrats 37 demographic changes 15 Index 133 Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) 11–12, 42–8, 50–2, 73, 81, 92, 129 n.6 depression 28, 94 direct taxes 56, 58 disability benefits 6, 49–52, 83 Disability Living Allowance (DLA) 49–51 Disabled People Against Cuts 52 Dividend Allowance 58 ‘dividend capitalism’ 8 domestic violence 29, 87 Dragonfly 92 due process 46, 49 ecological crisis 33, 37, 39, 114 ecological developments 21 ecological disaster 35 ecological taxes and levies 37 economy benefits 20, 60 crisis 106 damage 34 growth 20, 36, 106 industrialized 20 insecurity 21, 35, 39, 89 security 75, 80, 84, 88 system 15, 27, 38 tax-paying 60 uncertainty 8, 22–3, 31 ‘eco-socialism’ 8 ecosystems 33 Edinburgh 80 education 88, 108 Elliott, Larry 122 n.15 employment 16, 22, 39, 60–1, 81, 89, 93–4, 102, 106, 107, 110, 114 Employment Support Allowance (ESA) 27, 41, 49–51 England 28, 63, 110–11 Enlightenment 85 Entrepreneurs’ Relief 18 equality 31, 85 Europe 37 European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound) 120 n.1 European Heart Journal 33 European Union 6, 17, 41 euthanasia 113 extinction 33–7 ‘Extinction Rebellion’ 33 Fabian Society 57–8 Facebook 97 family allowances 56 family benefits 56 family insecurity 23 federal welfare programs 106 Fife 24, 80 financial crash (2007–8) 23, 26, 34 financialization 116 n.22 financial markets 18 Financial Services Authority 123 n.15 Financial Times 19, 123 n.15 financial wealth 18 Finland 28, 61, 93–5 food banks 10, 29–30, 43, 109 food donations 29 food insecurity 108–9 fossil fuels 33–4 France 12, 17, 18, 32, 38, 57 free bus services 112 freedom 8, 30, 84, 85, 101, 114 ‘free food’ 108–9, 129 n.6 ‘free’ labour market 106 free trade 13 Friends Provident Foundation 75 fuel tax 35 fund and dividend model 89 funding 29, 59, 62, 69, 71–2, 112 134 G20 (Group of 20 large economies) 15 Gaffney, Declan 57 Gallup 105 GDP 14, 17–18, 23–4, 34, 36, 59, 89, 108 General Election 91–2, 94 ‘genuine progress indicator’ 36 Germany 17–18, 38, 100 Gillibrand, Kirsten 101 Gini coefficient 9, 12 GiveDirectly 91 Glasgow City 80 globalization 14 Global Wage Report 2016/17 14 global warming 33, 37 Good Society 75, 106 The Great British Benefits Handout (TV series) 92 Great Depression 9 Great Recession 23 greenhouse gas emissions 34, 36 gross cost 110 The Guardian 101, 103, 122–3 n.15 Hansard Society 37 Harris, Kamala 101 Harrop, Andrew 57 Hartz IV 100 HartzPlus 100 health 67, 87, 100 human 33 insurance premiums 35 services 60 healthcare costs 28 hegemony 14 help-to-buy loan scheme 76 Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) 64, 73, 81 Hirschmann, Albert 56 household debt 24 Index household earnings 16 household survey 12 House of Commons 110–11 housing allowance 95 Housing Benefit 24, 41, 53, 71 housing policy 53 hub-and-spoke model 112 Hughes, Chris 97 humanity 33 human relations 3 ‘immoral’ hazard 109 ‘impact’ effects 78 incentive 62 income 81 assistance 88 average 83 components 11 distribution system 4, 13–14, 38, 67, 84, 107, 114 gap 9 growth 16 insecurity 27 men vs. women 15–16 national 14, 36 pensioners’ 16 rental 13–15, 20 social 14, 16–17 support payments 110 tax 1, 7, 57, 89, 111 transfer 85 volatility 22 India 68, 80, 90–2 Indian Congress Party 91 inequality 2, 4, 9–13, 21, 29, 31, 33, 35, 37, 38, 39, 54, 80, 85, 114 growth 17 income 9–10, 15–17, 19 living standard 20 wealth 18–19, 76 informal care 111 Index 135 inheritance tax 58 in-kind services 111 insecurity 21–3, 29, 38, 39, 47, 67, 85, 106 Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) 10 Institute for Public Policy Research 125 n.17 Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) 75, 111 Institute of New Economic Thinking 123 n.15 Institute of Public Policy Research 59 insurance schemes 8 intellectual property 14–15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 34 International Labour Organization (ILO) 14, 122 n.4 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 31, 34 international tax evasion 18 interpersonal income inequality 83 inter-regional income inequalities 83 intra-family relationships 3 involuntary debt 26 in-work benefits 22 Ireland 35 Italy 18 labour 31, 107 inefficiency 106 law 101 markets 8, 14, 32, 39, 40, 60, 62–3, 96, 100, 106 regulations 13 supply 67, 95 Labour governments 85 labourism 106 Lansley, Stewart 59 Latin America 90 Left Alliance 94 Lenin, Vladimir Ilyich 113 Liberal government 35 life-changing errors 51 life-threatening illness 33 Liverpool 80 living standards 20, 23, 33, 36, 53, 59, 92 Local Housing Allowances 24 London Homelessness Project 92–3 low-income communities 33 low-income families 21 low-income households 17 low-income individuals 86 Low Pay Commission 63 low-wage jobs 60, 107 Luddite reaction 32 lump-sum payments 35, 59, 76 Jackson, Mississippi 99 JobCentrePlus 47 job guarantee policy 101–7 job-matching programs 106 Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) 41, 46 Joseph Rowntree Foundation 21 McDonnell, John 129 n.13 McKinsey Global Institute 31 Macron, Emmanuel 35 Magna Carta 1 ‘Making Ends Meet’ 97 ‘mandatory reconsideration’ stage 51 Manitoba 87–8 Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment (Mincome) 87 market economy 105, 114 master-servant model 101 Kaletsky, Anatole 123 n.15 Kenya 90–2 Khanna, Ro 103 Kibasi, Tom 113 136 Index Maximus 50 means-testing 4, 39, 42, 48, 58, 61–2, 70, 84, 88, 90, 109–10, 114 benefits 5, 7, 27, 40, 46, 56, 71–3, 81, 129 n.6 social assistance 23, 41, 95, 122 n.7 system 6 medical services 28 Mein Grundeinkommen (‘My Basic Income’) 100 mental health 26, 28, 94 disorders 88 trusts 28 mental illness 33, 68 migrants 7, 113 ‘minimum income floor’ 45 Ministry of Justice 51 modern insecurity 22 modern life 31 monetary policy 59 Mont Pelerin Society 13 moral commitment 75 moral hazard 109 mortality 27, 76 multinational investment funds 34 Musk, Elon 31, 54 Namibia 90–2 National Audit Office (NAO) 24, 43–4, 46, 76 National Health Service (NHS) 8, 24, 27–8, 44, 68, 80, 108, 111 National Insurance 18, 22, 124 n.4 nationalism 37 National Living Wage 63 National Minimum Wage 63–4 national solidarity 3 Native American community 88 negative income tax (NIT) 23, 87, 95, 100 neo-fascism 37–8 neoliberalism 13, 84 Netherlands 96 New Economics Foundation (NEF) 57, 113, 122 n.15 non-resident citizens 113 non-wage benefits 16 non-wage work 74 North America 67 North Ayrshire 80 North Carolina 88 North Sea oil 89–90 Nyman, Rickard 23 Oakland 96–7 Office for National Statistics (ONS) 14–15, 17, 36 Ontario, Canada 95–6 open economy 84 open ‘free’ markets 13, 15 opportunity dividend 59 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 18, 23, 27, 31 Ormerod, Paul 23 Osborne, George 19 Paine, Thomas 2, 75 Painian Principle 2 panopticon state 55 Paris Agreement (2015) 34 participation income 74–5 paternalism 42, 55 pauperization 63 Pawar, Alderman Ameya 99 pay contributions 21 pension contributions 18, 58 Pension Credit 41 Pericles Condition 75 permanent capital fund 71 personal care services 110–11 Index 137 personal income tax 35 Personal Independence Payment (PIP) 49–51 personal insecurity 23 Personal Savings Allowance 58 personal tax allowances 17, 58, 59 perverse incentives 50 physical health 26, 94 piloting in Britain 67–81 applying 80–1 rules in designing 70–80 policy development 3, 69 political decision 78 political discourse 92 political instability 35 political system 38 populism 37–8, 75 populist parties 37 populist politics 39 Populus survey 55 post-war system 8 poverty 2, 4, 10–12, 22, 27, 29, 36, 38, 40, 60–1, 89, 100, 108–9, 114, 125 n.17, 129 n.6 precarity 29–30, 38, 39, 60–1, 85, 103, 129 n.6 Primary Earnings Threshold 124 n.4 private debt 23–4, 39 private inheritance 2 private insurance 85 private property rights 13 private wealth 18 privatization 13, 17, 112 property prices 76 prostitution 43 Public Accounts Committee (PAC) 51 public costs 28 public debt 23 public inheritance 61 public libraries 47 public policy 97 public sector managers 103 public services 4, 17, 62, 108, 112, 114 public spending 89 public wealth 18 ‘quantitative easing’ policy 59 quasi-basic income 89, 98 quasi-universal basic services 30 quasi-universal dividends 35 quasi-universal system 61, 70, 90 Randomised Control Trial (RCT) 124–5 n.14 rape 44 Ratcliffe, Jim 12 Reagan, Ronald 13 Reed, Howard 59 refugees 7 regressive universalism 57 regular cash payment 7 rent arrears 24 controls 53 rentier capitalism 13–21, 107, 116 n.22 republican freedom 2–3, 30, 84 Republicans 37 Resolution Foundation 10, 15, 19, 25, 76 ‘revenue neutral’ constraint 7 right-wing populism 37–8 robot advance 31–3 Royal College of Physicians 33 Royal Society of Arts 55, 59, 124 n.12 RSA Scotland 125 n.17 Rudd, Amber 9 Russia 113 138 Sanders, Bernie 101 scepticism 31 schooling 67, 89 Scotland 69, 80, 111 Second World War 19, 21 security 8, 38, 55, 68, 84 economic 3, 4, 49, 56 income 73–4 social 8, 22, 49 Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) 68 self-employment 45 Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer 3, 115 n.3 Smith, Iain Duncan 42 ‘snake oil’ 113 social assistance 3, 28 social benefit 20 social care 102, 104, 110–11 social crisis 106 social dividend scheme 92 Social Fund 29 social inheritance 2 social insecurity 21 social insurance 22, 85 social integration 44 social justice 2, 8, 20, 69, 84, 101, 114 social policy 8, 23, 26, 30, 42, 53, 84–5, 96 social protection system 32 social relation 100 social security 10, 70–1, 95 social solidarity 3, 8, 39, 61, 84–5, 91 social spending 17 social status 104 social strife 35 social value 29 ‘something-for-nothing’ economy 19–20, 61 Index Speenhamland system 63 State of the Global Workplace surveys 105 statutory minimum wages 106 stigma 47, 55 stigmatization 41, 109 Stockton 97–9 Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration (SEED) 97 stress 26–9, 39, 51, 67, 68, 85, 93 student loans 24 substitution effects 102–3 suicides 26–7 Summers, Larry 105–6 Sweden 113 Swiss bank Credit Suisse 12 Switzerland 35 tax advantages 49 and benefit systems 17, 18, 69, 110 credits 3, 17, 24, 63, 105, 106 policies 16 rates 72 reliefs 17–18, 57–8, 61 tax-free inheritance 19 technological change 105 technological revolution 14, 31, 114 ‘teething problems’ 42 Thatcher, Margaret 13 Thatcher government 9, 18 The Times 92 Torry, Malcolm 122 n.7 Trades Union Congress 24 tribal casino schemes 76 ‘triple-lock’ policy 16 Trump, Donald 37 Trussell Trust 29, 43 Tubbs, Michael 97–8 Index 139 Turner, Adair 123 n.15 two-child limit 44 UK.


pages: 288 words: 85,073

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund

animal electricity, clean water, colonial rule, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, global pandemic, Hans Rosling, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), jimmy wales, linked data, lone genius, microcredit, purchasing power parity, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steven Pinker, Thomas L Friedman, Walter Mischel

In some extreme cases, households may experience an average of 60 power outages per week and still be listed as “having access to electricity.” The question, accordingly, talks about “some” access. See gapm.io/q12. Fact Question 13: Correct answer is A. “Climate experts” refers to the 274 authors of the IPCC[1] Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), published in 2014 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), who write, “Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios”; see IPCC[2]. See gapm.io/q13. Illusions. The idea of explaining cognitive biases using the Müller-Lyer illusion comes from Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman (2011). The ten instincts and cognitive psychology. Our thinking on the ten instincts was influenced by the work of a number of brilliant cognitive scientists.

November 5, 2017. https://rhinos.org. IMDb. Internet Movie Database. Search results for feature films filtered by year. gapm.io/ximdbf. India Census 2011. “State of Literacy.” Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India. 2011. gapm.io/xindc. ISC (Internet System Consortium). “Internet host count history.” gapm.io/xitho. IPCC[1] (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Authors and Review Editors. May 27, 2014. gapm.io/xipcca. IPCC[2]. Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)—Climate Change 2014: Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, page 10: “Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios.” Accessed April 10, 2017. gapm.io/xipcc. Ipsos MORI[1]. Online polls for Gapminder in 12 countries, August 2017. gapm.io/gt17re.


pages: 197 words: 49,296

The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis by Christiana Figueres, Tom Rivett-Carnac

3D printing, Airbnb, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, F. W. de Klerk, Fall of the Berlin Wall, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Lyft, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Nelson Mandela, new economy, ride hailing / ride sharing, self-driving car, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, the scientific method, trade route, uber lyft, urban planning, urban sprawl, Yogi Berra

The Heartland Institute, which promotes denial of established climate science, encouraged people to “seek out advice from independent, non governmental organizations and scientists who are free of financial and political conflicts of interest” rather than relying on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for scientific advice. It would have been extremely difficult for some recipients of that book to determine whether this was real science or bunk, and whether the authors were indeed distinguished climate scientists. In fact, one author was formerly director of environmental science at Peabody Energy (a coal company that went bankrupt). That author has a master’s degree and a Ph.D. in geography, not climate science. One of his credits is that he is the lead author of the reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). Note the striking and confusing similarity of that name to the UN-backed IPCC. The NIPCC is actually a project sponsored by the Heartland Institute.

David Roberts, “Utilities Have a Problem: The Public Wants 100% Renewable Energy, and Quick,” Vox, October 11, 2018, https://www.vox.com/​energy-and-environment/​2018/​9/14/​17853884/​utilities-renewable-energy-100-percent-public-opinion. 44. Stefan Jungcurt, “IRENA Report Predicts All Forms of Renewable Energy Will Be Cost Competitive by 2020,” SDG Knowledge Hub, January 16, 2018, http://sdg.iisd.org/​news/​irena-report-predicts-all-forms-of-renewable-energy-will-be-cost-competitive-by-2020/. 45. United Nations Climate Change, “IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C,” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, https://unfccc.int/​topics/​science/​workstreams/​cooperation-with-the-ipcc/​ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-15-degc. 46. Sunday Times Driving, “10 Electric Cars with 248 Miles or More Range to Buy Instead of a Diesel or Petrol,” Sunday Times (UK), July 1, 2019, https://www.driving.co.uk/​news/​10-electric-cars-248-miles-range-buy-instead-diesel-petrol/. 47. Christine Negroni, “How Much of the World’s Population Has Flown in an Airplane?”

More than 3 degrees Celsius warmer than the preindustrial average global temperature. 16. That is, 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the preindustrial average global temperature. 17. For a full explanation, see Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, “Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC,” 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/​sr15/. 18. Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, eds., Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000), https://www.ipcc.ch/​report/​emissions-scenarios/. 2. THE WORLD WE ARE CREATING 1. Department of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization, “Ambient Air Pollution: Health Impacts,” https://www.who.int/​airpollution/​ambient/​health-impacts/​en/. 2. Greenpeace Southeast Asia, “Latest Air Pollution Data Ranks World’s Cities Worst to Best,” March 5, 2019, https://www.greenpeace.org/​southeastasia/​press/​679/​latest-air-pollution-data-ranks-worlds-cities-worst-to-best/. 3.


Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence, and the Poverty of Nations by Raymond Fisman, Edward Miguel

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, blood diamonds, clean water, colonial rule, congestion charging, crossover SUV, Donald Davies, European colonialism, failed state, feminist movement, George Akerlof, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, mass immigration, megacity, oil rush, prediction markets, random walk, Scramble for Africa, selection bias, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, unemployed young men

For poor African farmers, where the weather determines whether the next harvest will yield enough food to eat, or barren fields will bring hunger, what comes out of factory smokestacks in China could truly be a matter of life and death. If changing global weather brings less rain to Africa, it may also bring more war. Global Weathermen Despite the lingering naysayers, scientists worldwide largely agree that climate change is happening and isn’t going away anytime soon. This consensus is expressed in the United Nations scientific report called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment, whose authors were awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize (together with Al Gore). The leading researchers who penned the report agree that in the coming decades, rising global temperatures and sea levels will change life as we know it, altering landscapes and habitats across the globe.19 But while many experts generally agree that the planet is heating up, there are divergent views on exactly how it’ll change and by how much.

See also Rapid Conflict Prevention Support (RCPS) Geschiere, Peter, 140 Ghana, 142 Gine, Xavier, 199–200 Githongo, John, 208–9 Giuliani, Rudy, 104 Gladwell, Malcolm, 19–20 Glennerster, Rachel, 227n14, 231nn6, 7 Glewwe, Paul, 194 global warming: China and, 127–29; predicted effects of, 129–31; Sahelian Africa and, 131–34, 225n21; U.S. and, 127–29 Grain of Wheat (Ngugi), 2 Guidolin, Massimo, 182b–84b Halliburton, 29, 220n19 HIV/AIDS, 9, 191–92 Hoeffler, Anke, 228n20, 230n13 Homo economicus, 6, 87 Hong Kong, 55–57 Houtafa Ag Moussa, 122 incentives, economic, 188–89; bribery and, 80; parking violations and, 103b–5b; policy formulation and, 189–91; smuggling and, 61–62, 65, 70–73, 78–79 India, 21 Indonesia: road building in, 197–99; Suharto and, 22–24, 33–40, 187, 218nn7, 8, 9 (see also Suharto) insider information, stock trading and, 34–40 institutionalists, 12–15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), 129 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 39–40, 41–42, 154 Iraq: army dissolution and, 180–81; civilian casualties in, 119b; national identity in, 179; rebuilding of, 178–81 Italy: corruption in, 93b; Mafia in, 43b–46b; political connections in, value of, 48–49 Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX), 33, 36–40, 217n6, 218n7 Japan, postwar recovery of, 162–63, 179–80 Jeffords, Jim, 51 Jolie, Angelina, 9 Kenya: childrens’ names in, 123b; development program evaluations in, 193–95; economic growth of, 204–5; fighting for development in, 1–3; Mungiki and, 147b–48b; police salaries in, 189; politics and politicians in, 1–5; road building in, 186–87; village of Sauri and, 202–6.

New York Times, “World Briefing: Africa: Niger: Rebel Attack at Army Base Kills 13,” June 23, 2007. 18. The International Energy Agency Statistics, 2007 (www .iea.org) contains detailed global data on CO2 emissions. 19. The full report can be found at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ (last visited March 29, 2008). Much of the research in this section is based on ongoing joint work with John Dykema and Shanker Satyanath. We are especially grateful to John Dykema for many insightful conversations on climate models. 20. This is for the range of low emission to high emission scenarios: see http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html, p. 13 (last visited March 29, 2008). 21. There is no single accepted definition of the Sahel. The following organizations have different definitions: USAID (http:// www.usaid.gov/press/factsheets/2005/fs050803.html), the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (http://www.africa-union.org/root/ au/ RECs/cen_sad.htm), and the International Development Research Centre (http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-43109-201-1-DO_TOPIC. html).


pages: 437 words: 115,594

The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World by Steven Radelet

"Robert Solow", Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, business climate, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, clean water, colonial rule, creative destruction, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, global supply chain, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, John Snow's cholera map, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, land reform, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, off grid, oil shock, out of africa, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, special economic zone, standardized shipping container, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, women in the workforce, working poor

A similar consensus now exists among climate scientists, a consensus that maintains climate change is happening, and human activity is the cause.7 According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric temperatures rose by about 0.85°C (about 1.5°F) during the last century, and the first decade of the twenty-first century was the hottest on record. Ocean temperatures have risen even faster. Sea levels have risen by about 0.2 meters over the last century, on average, and in some places, they have risen higher. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last eight hundred thousand years. Carbon dioxide concentrations, in particular, have increased by 40 percent since the industrial revolution.8 How climate will change in the future, of course, is a matter of extensive debate and uncertainty. The IPCC believes it is “likely” that average global temperatures will rise another 0.7°C this century, bringing the total increase in temperatures to 1.5°C (2.7°F).

., “High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change,” Science 342, no. 6160 (November 15, 2013): 850–53, www.sciencemag.org/content/342/6160/850. 7. What We Know: The Reality, Risks and Response to Climate Change (New York: American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2014), p. 6, http://whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/whatweknow_website.pdf. 8. “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis—Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), last modified January 30, 2014, www.climatechange2013.org. 9. Nicholas Stern, “How Climate Change Will Affect People Around the World,” chap. 3 in Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (London: Government of the United Kingdom, 2006), http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100407172811/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm. 10. Dean Jamison et al., “Global Health 2035: A World Converging Within a Generation,” Lancet 382, no. 9908 (December 7, 2013): 1898–1955. 11.

., 97 Hindu nationalists, 287 Hitler, Adolf, 127, 146 HIV/AIDS, 20, 75, 81–82, 83, 94, 95, 173, 174–75, 182, 205, 214, 221, 246, 266 Hobbes, Thomas, 24 Honduras: coup in, 97–98 crime in, 264 war in, 145 Hong Kong: British control of, 153 and globalization, 155 growth in, 147 hookworm, 205 housing, 24, 307 humanitarian relief, 213 human rights groups, 110 Hungary, 7, 143 illiberalism in, 255, 263 protests in, 134 trade encouraged by, 155 Huntington, Samuel, 104, 105, 112, 121, 122, 146, 197, 265, 296 Hussein I, King of Jordan, 187 illiberal democracy, 264 immunization, 94, 178 income, 3, 5, 8, 17, 25, 31, 32, 40, 77, 94, 294 in Africa, 12 in China, 201 climbing, 240–41, 240 doubling of, 4, 5–6, 44 education, health and, 89–93 falling, 11, 49 income inequality, 65–71 between countries, 69–71, 70 within countries, 65–69 incubators, 175 independence from colonialism, 140–43 India, 3, 7, 22, 32–33, 37, 127, 159, 203, 289, 292, 297 colonialism in, 140 data entry firms in, 178 demand in, 53 as democracy, 98, 122, 123, 126 economic reforms in, 192 emigration from, 284 floods in, 281 future of, 234 growth in, 6, 8–9, 17, 21, 45, 50, 71, 128, 235, 237 inequality in, 69–70 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 innovation in, 302 malaria in, 211 natural capital in, 63 Pakistan’s wars with, 141, 145 poverty reduction in, 244 slowdown in growth of, 237, 255, 257, 262 software companies in, 56 terrorism in, 287 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 water demand in, 279 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Indian Institute of Technology, 247 Indonesia, 10, 36, 124, 127, 184, 289 agriculture in, 58–59, 204 aid for schools in, 216 aid to, 214, 223 benign dictatorship in, 126 child mortality in, 85 colonial legacy in, 136–40 demand in, 53 democracy in, 106, 112, 114, 115, 122, 123, 124, 250 demonstrations in, 281 as dictatorship, 99, 122 factories in, 201 fertility rates in, 85, 85 growth in, 6, 7, 22, 38–39, 50, 71, 125–26, 128, 147, 233, 238, 242, 262 healthcare in, 95 individual leadership in, 187 Nikes from, 56 population growth in, 85 rice yields in, 215–16 terrorism in, 286 timber, 223 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 industrial equipment, 165 industrial revolution, 24, 25, 77, 135, 166, 300 industry, 45, 56, 260 inequality, 258 infant mortality, 92, 118, 175, 306 in South Africa, 183 infectious diseases, 92 inflation, 11, 192 in Africa, 12 information, 166, 234 information revolution, 175–79, 176 infrastructure, 164, 201, 207, 262 aid projects for, 216 Inkatha Freedom Party, 182, 185 innovation, 234, 258, 292, 294 in China, 236 Institute of World Economics and Politics, 298 institutions, 200, 294, 297–98, 303–4 and resource curse, 206 insurance companies, 241 insurance markets, 305 interest rates, 233, 305 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 282 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), 171 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 102, 235, 237, 239, 258, 259, 260, 298, 309 International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), 171, 215–16 internet, 162, 175, 233, 300 investment, 6, 20, 22, 52, 156, 157, 166, 301, 304–5, 306 in Africa, 12 in technology, 234, 246 Iran, 114, 124 coup in, 100 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Iraq, 8, 114, 118, 124, 285 US invasion of, 8, 118, 124, 146 Ireland, 284 iron, 25, 53, 159 Islam, 124 fundamentalist, 265 Islamabad, 287 Israel, 106, 285 Istanbul, 201, 206 Istanbul Technical University, 247 Italy, 47, 104 ivory, 152, 206 Jakarta, 137 Jamaica, 49, 50 Jamison, Dean, 246 Japan, 19, 20, 21, 146, 167, 201, 288, 290, 292, 298, 300 as democracy, 122, 123, 126, 250, 296 colonialism in Indonesia, 137 industrialization of, 25–26 leadership needed by, 234 post–World War II boom in, 262 reforms in, 295 slowing of progress in, 250, 255, 257 Jarka, Lamine Jusu, 104 Java, 152, 204 Jensen, Robert, 177 job training, 38 Johannesburg, 58 Johnson, Simon, 13 Johnson Sirleaf, Ellen, 3, 120, 184, 185, 209, 217 Jordan, 285 growth in, 45 individual leadership in, 187 life expectancy in, 78 poverty in, 36 JSI Research and Training Institute, 173 Kabila, Laurent, 185 Kagan, Robert, 253 Kampala, 177 Kaplan, Robert, 11 Kapstein, Ethan, 198 Karimov, Islam, 8, 127, 144, 185 Kathmandu, 203, 206 Kazakhstan, 36, 106, 115, 285 Kelly, James, 254 Kenny, Charles, 11, 93 Kenya, 18, 169 accounting firms in, 56 data entry firms in, 178 horticulture in, 169 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Kerekou, Mathieu, 144 Kharas, Homi, 240–41, 261 Khatun, Jahanara, 270, 272 Khmer Rouge, 114 Khrushchev, Nikita, 250 Kim, Jim Yong, 231, 242 Kim Il Sung, 100, 144, 184 Kirkpatrick, Jeanne, 124 Kissinger, Henry, 271 Kodari, 203 Kolkata, 203 Korean War, 81, 100, 141, 145 Kosovo, and democracy, 248 Kotler, Steven, 300 Kraay, Aart, 65 Kufuor, John, 189–90 Ku Klux Klan, 124, 265 Kurlantzick, Josh, 263 Kuwait, 47 Kuznets, Simon, 66 KwaZulu-Natal, 182 Kyrgyzstan, 205, 285 labor unions, 102 Lancet, 91, 245, 267, 284, 306 Landes, David, 13 Laos, 184 Latin America, 11, 36, 146 colonialism in, 140 economic growth in, 255 growth in, 50, 141 inequality in, 67–68 megacities in, 277 reforms in, 192 Latvia, growth in, 128 Laveran, Alphonse, 211 leadership, 16, 17–18, 131, 184–87, 200, 201, 234, 303–4 Lebitsa, Masetumo, 57 Lee, Jong-Wha, 87 Lee Kuan Yew, 7, 121, 122, 123, 125, 127 Lensink, Robert, 226 Lesotho, 57, 103 Levine, Ruth, 214 Levi Strauss & Co., 165 Lewis, Arthur, 66 Liberia, 3, 11, 18, 159, 184, 185, 285 aid to, 217 democracy in, 106, 145 Ebola in, 82 growth in, 7, 50 health system in, 266 infrastructure investment in, 216 violence in, 120, 145, 146, 206, 209, 217 Libya, 115 life expectancy, 78–79, 79, 92, 93, 232, 266, 271, 294 Lipset, Seymour Martin, 121 literacy programs, 161, 162, 176, 178–79 literacy rates, 87 Liu Yingsheng, 153 London, 24, 201 Lord’s Resistance Army, 287 Lukashenko, Alexander, 85 Maathai, Wangari, 18 McAfee, Andrew, 166, 300 Macapagal-Arroyo, Gloria, 264 McLean, Malcolm, 167 Madagascar, 49, 50, 263 Mahbubani, Kishore, 241 malaria, 6, 10, 14, 73, 75, 92, 94, 205, 209–13, 221, 246, 302 Malawi, 103, 122, 175, 208 Malaysia, 136 benign dictatorship in, 126 and democracy, 248, 250 forest loss in, 280 malaria in, 211 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Maldives, 152, 284 Mali, 206 child mortality in, 84 coup in, 114, 264–65 democracy in, 103, 108, 122, 123, 263 economic problems in, 255 as landlocked, 205 poverty in, 122 malnutrition, 73, 80 Malthus, Thomas, 270, 273–74, 275 Mandela, Nelson, 17, 149, 180, 182–83, 184, 198, 309 released from jail, 103, 143, 148 Mandelbaum, Michael, 11 manufacturing, 25, 37–39, 45, 56, 67, 156, 260, 261–62 in China, 235–36 Mao Tse-tung, ix, 35, 81, 102, 123, 127, 134, 185 Maputo, 44 Marcos, Ferdinand, 11, 100, 103, 104, 109, 127, 141, 143, 148, 222 Mariam, Mengistu Haile, 144 Marrakesh, 206 Marshall Islands, 284 Maseru Tapestries and Mats, 57 Massmart Holdings Ltd., 46 Matela Weavers, 57 maternal mortality rates, 246 Mauritania, 281 Mauritius: aid to, 216 child mortality in, 84 as democracy, 98 growth in, 5, 37, 50, 126, 128 Mbasogo, Teodoro Obiang Nguema, 184 Mearsheimer, John, 290–91 measles, 92, 94, 161 Mecca, Zheng He’s trip to, 152 medical equipment, 20, 165 medicine, 21, 31 megacities, 277 Meiji Restoration, 25–26, 146 Melaka, 136 Menchú Tum, Rigoberta, 18 Mexico, 159, 162 default by, 101–2 democracy strengthening in, 115 demonstrations in, 281 emigration from, 284 growth in, 235 Micklethwait, John, 295 middle class, 20, 240–41 Middle East, 36, 184, 256, 265 conflict in, 146 democracy and, 265 financing in, 259 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 82–83 oil from, 201 trade and, 159 middle-income trap, 261 Milanovic, Branko, 65, 70 Millennium Challenge Corporation, 216 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), 18, 30–31, 95, 217, 242 Millennium Summit, 217 Mills, John Atta, 189 minerals, 22, 152, 205–6 Ming China, 151–53 minimum wage, 165 mining, 278 Ministry of Finance, Gambia, The 190 Mitteri Bridge, 203 Mobarak, Mushfiq, 59 Mobile Alliance for Maternal Action (MAMA), 178 mobile devices, 47 mobile phones, 157, 175–78, 176 Mobilink-UNESCO, 179 Mobutu Sese Seko, 11, 100, 127, 141, 143, 145, 222 Moi, Daniel Arap, 103 Moldova, 6, 7, 36, 143 Mongolia, 108 aid to, 223 coal and iron ore exported by, 53 democracy in, 104, 122, 123, 144 growth in, 6, 7, 45, 128 Moran, Ted, 164–65 Moreira, Sandrina Berthault, 226 Morocco: demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 6, 50 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 poverty in, 36 Morrisson, Christian, 25, 27, 28 mosquitoes, 212 Moyo, Dambisa, 12 Mozal aluminum smelter, 44 Mozambique, 11, 18, 43–45, 159 aid to, 214, 216 aluminum exported by, 53 and democracy, 248 demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 6, 50, 261 inequality in, 67 infrastructure investment in, 216 reforms in, 192 state-owned farms in, 195 war in, 100, 145 M-Pesa, 47 Mubarak, Hosni, 113, 125, 185 Mugabe, Robert, 8, 106, 113, 127, 144, 181, 182, 185, 221 Mumbai, 287 Museveni, Yoweri, 112, 187 Musharraf, Pervez, 113 Mussolini, Benito, 104, 146 Myanmar, 9, 22, 112, 144, 184, 208, 263 child mortality in, 82 cyclones in, 281 health improvements in, 93 Namibia, ix, x, 37 democracy in, 135 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 266 war in, 100, 145 National Academy of Sciences, US, 172 National Constituent Assembly, Tunisia, 124 National Institutes of Health, US, 302 natural capital, 62–63 Natural Resource Governance Institute, 306 Nazarbayev, Nursultan, 106 Nazism, 124, 146, 265, 309 Ndebele tribe, 180 Nepal, 37, 174, 203–4, 208 democracy in, 107, 122, 123 demonstrations in, 281 as landlocked, 202, 205 poverty in, 122 Netherlands, 47 Indonesian colonialism of, 136–37, 138, 139 New Development Bank, 259 New Orleans, La., 201 New York, N.Y., 201, 277 New York Times, 104, 176–77, 270 New Zealand, 25, 78, 167, 202, 231 Nicaragua, 11, 36 democracy in, 104 war in, 100, 145 Niger, 208 agriculture in, 204 democracy in, 124, 263 as landlocked, 202, 205 mobile phones in, 177–78 Nigeria, 115, 159, 243, 245, 287 dictatorship in, 99, 113 health technology in, 175 oil in, 285 per capita wealth in, 62 Nike, 165, 202 Nkomo, Joshua, 181 noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), 268 non-governmental organization (NGOs), 110, 221 Noriega, Manuel, 144 North Africa, 36 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 82–83 trade and, 159 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 156, 162 North Korea, 8, 9, 100, 144, 184, 192, 208, 243 nutrition, 232 Obama, Barack, 297 Obama administration, 297 O’Hanlon, Michael, 299 oil, 44, 53, 62, 67, 114–15, 201, 205, 285 in Equatorial Guinea, 223 in Indonesia, 138, 139 oil crises, 10 open markets, 131 Opium Wars, 153 oral rehydration therapy (ORT), 94, 173, 215 overfishing, 61 overtime regulations, 165 Paarlberg, Rob, 172 Pakistan, 37, 162, 243, 245, 285–86 conflict in, 118, 119 coup in, 113 and democracy, 263 emigration from, 284 factories in, 58 India’s wars with, 141, 145 terrorism in, 287 violence in, 146 Panama, 9 growth in, 50, 128, 238 US invasion of, 144 Panama Canal, 211 Panasonic, 202 Papua New Guineau, 50, 213 Paraguay, 50, 280 Park Chung-hee, 99, 122 patents, 157 Peace Corps, 75, 90, 202 pensions, 38, 241 People Power Revolution, 186 Perkins, Dwight, 235 pertussis, 94, 161 Peru, 159, 185, 285, 287 agriculture in, 56–57 copper exported by, 53 demonstrations in, 281 pharmaceuticals, 20, 165 Philippines, 7, 11, 17, 18, 100, 103, 121, 127, 184, 185, 201, 222, 289, 290, 297 call centers in, 178 corruption in, 264 democracy in, 104, 106, 109, 122, 123, 250, 263 growth in, 242 inequality in, 67 nickel exported by, 53 rice yields in, 215–16 transcribers in, 56 Piketty, Thomas, 68–69 Pinker, Steven, 115 Pinochet, Augusto, 107–8, 122, 141, 143–44, 187 Plano Real (“Real Plan”), 187 Plundered Planet, The (Collier), 292 pneumonia, 73 Poland, 6, 18, 36, 103, 143, 184, 186 protests in, 134 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 polio, 94, 119, 161, 215 Polity IV Project, 107, 109 pollution, 302 Population Bomb, The (Ehrlich), 274 population growth, 21, 80–81, 84, 95, 233, 234, 272, 273–77, 276 Portfolios of the Poor (Collins et al.), 32, 33–34 Port of Cotonou, 216 Portugal, 105, 123, 136 poverty, 94, 294 definitions and terminology of, 26–27 democracy and, 121 as exacerbated by conflicts, 119, 119 as man-made, 180 poverty, extreme, 5, 8, 25, 26, 27–30, 30, 31–35, 36, 41, 42, 118, 231, 232, 240, 241–45, 244, 256, 271 in China, 35, 36, 242 in Indonesia, 136 in South Africa, 183 poverty, reduction of, 3, 4, 5, 8, 17, 21, 27–31, 28, 30, 34–35 in Africa, 12 in China, 201 after global food crisis (2007), 12 ignorance of, 10 lack of attention to, 10 poverty traps, 14–16 pregnancy, 178 press, freedom of, 198–99 Preston, Samuel, 92 Preston curves, 92 Pritchett, Lant, 89, 235, 262 Programa Bolsa Família, 38, 67 progress in developing countries, x, 3–5, 45–53, 46, 49, 229, 237–39, 238 democratization and, see democracy factors for, 16–19 future of, 21–23 as good for West, 19–21 income growth in, 240–41, 240 investment in, 238 and long historical perspective, 13 and microlevel studies, 13–14 middle class emergence in, 240–41 pessimism about, 9–12 possible stalling of, 255–56 possible tripling of incomes in, 277–78 and poverty traps, 14–16 reduction of poverty in, see poverty, reduction of threats to, 291–92 transforming production in, 262–63 property rights, 142, 303 protein, 280 Protestant work ethic, 120–21 Publish What You Pay, 305 Punjab, 178–79 Putin, Vladimir, 224, 255 Radelet, John, 60 Rahman, Ziaur, 271 Rajan, Raghuram, 225, 237 Rajasthan, 33 Ramos, Fidel, 103 Ramos-Horta, José, 184 Ravallion, Martin, 27, 29, 64, 227, 243 Rawlings, Jerry, 188–89 Rebirth of Education, The (Pritchett), 89 recession (1980s), 10, 191 Reebok, 164 religion, freedom of, 198–99 religious bodies, 110 Reserve Bank, Zimbabwe, 181 resource curse, 54, 163, 206 resource demand, 21, 233, 272, 281 resource extraction, 162–63 resources, 275 in Africa, 261 resource wars, 284–86 retail trade, 37, 45 Return of History and the End of Dreams, The (Kagan), 253 Reuveny, Rafael, 272 Rhodes, Cecil, 180 Rhodesia, 43 rice, 139, 215–16 rickshaw drivers, 32–33 Ridley, Matt, 11 rights, 131, 161, 198–99 rinderpest, 215 Rio de Janeiro, 46, 58, 159, 201 river blindness, 214 roads, 169, 233, 235 aid for, 216 in South Africa, 202 Robinson, James, 13, 140, 249 robotics, 261, 301 Rockefeller Foundation, 170 Rodrik, Dani, 261, 263 Roll Back Malaria Partnership, 212 Romania, 36, 50, 134, 143 Romero, Óscar, 100 Roosevelt, Franklin, 100 Roosevelt, Theodore, 169 Ross, Ronald, 211 Royal Economic Society, 226 Russia, 47, 146, 222, 256 democracy in, 113, 263, 264 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 slowing of progress in, 250, 264 Ukraine invaded by, 192, 233 US aid banned by, 224 Rutagumirwa, Laban, 176–77 Rwanda, 144, 159 aid to, 214, 216, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 growth in, 6, 7, 45, 50, 125, 128, 261 individual leadership in, 187 as landlocked, 207 Sachs, Jeffrey, 14–15, 175, 205, 210, 213, 219 Safaricom, 47 salinity, 171, 215 Sall, Macky, 114 Samoa, 202 sanitation, 73, 77, 216, 303 Sargsyan, Vazgen, 113 Saudi Arabia, 115 savings rate, 201 schistosomiasis, 205 Schlesinger, Arthur, Jr., 121 Schumpeter, Joseph, 249 Second Machine Age, The (Brynjolfsson and McAfee), 166, 300 secular stagnation, 257 seed drill, 25 seeds, 171 semiconductors, 20 Sen, Amartya, 19, 123, 127, 128 Sendero Luminoso, 287 Senegal, 7, 37 aid to, 223, 224 corruption in, 114 democracy in, 123, 124, 263 demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 261 inequality in, 67 Senkaku islands, 288 Seoul, 201 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks of, 269 services, 67, 260, 261–62 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 82, 267 Seychelles, 284 Shanghai, 201 Shenzhen, 91 Sherpas, 203 Shikha, 33–34 Shinawatra, Thaksin, 254–55, 264 Shinawatra, Yingluck, 255 Shining Path, 287 shipping, 202 shipping containers, 167–68 shock therapy, 219 shoes, 56, 139, 162, 262 Sierra Leone, 220, 285 democracy in, 104, 107 Ebola in, 82 growth in, 50 health system in, 266 violence in, 146, 206 Silk Road, 206 silks, 152 silver, 152 Simon, Julian, 294 Sin, Jaime, 18, 103 Singapore, 7, 16, 184 benign dictatorship in, 126 and democracy, 122, 248, 250 and globalization, 155 growth in, 125, 139, 147 universities in, 247 Singh, Manmohan, 192 Six-Day War, 285 skills and capabilities, 16, 190–92 slavery, 142, 156, 180, 206 smallpox, 214, 215 Smith, Adam, 151, 156, 200–201 Smith, David, 43 Smith, Marshall, 178–79 SMS text messages, 47, 178 Snow, John, 77 social safety net, 38, 39, 68, 164, 307 Sogolo, Nicéphore, 144 soil, 171, 215 Solow, Robert, 165 Somalia, 8, 9, 99, 119, 213, 243 aid to, 224 power vacuum in, 184 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Somoza García, Anastasio, 100, 127 Song-Taaba Yalgré women’s cooperative, 178 South Africa, 7, 17, 18, 20, 22, 37, 43, 46, 127, 143, 145, 155, 182–83, 207 aid to, 223 apartheid in, 44, 57, 68, 100, 103, 135, 141, 180, 182 banks in, 56 corruption in, 264 economic growth in, 183, 235, 262 future of, 234 HIV in, 174 inequality in, 68 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 life expectancy in, 266 political turmoil in, 57 roads in, 202 universities in, 247 South Asia, 37, 50 Southeast Asia, 5, 12, 167 colonialism in, 140 growth in, 141 Southern Rhodesia, 180 South Jakarta, 286 South Korea, 36, 127, 159, 184, 201, 288, 290 aid to, 214, 216 benign dictatorship in, 126 democracy in, 104, 122, 126, 250 as dictatorship, 99, 122 and globalization, 155 growth in, 7, 16, 29, 71, 125, 139, 147, 236, 262 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 68 lack of resources in, 205 land redistribution in, 68 Soviet Union, x, 50, 126, 133–34, 145, 148, 298, 309 Afghanistan invaded by, 134, 146 collapse of, 16, 81, 103, 131, 135, 142, 156, 250, 251 countries controlled by, 141 dictatorships supported by, 100 malaria in, 210 Spain, 105, 123, 140 speech, freedom of, 198–99 Spence, Michael, 86, 165 Spratly Islands, 289 Sputnik, 147, 250 Sri Lanka, 11, 37 economic problems in, 255 engineers from, 56 malaria in, 211 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Stalin, Joseph, 127 state-owned farms, 195 Stavins, Robert, 297 steam engine, 25, 300 Steinberg, James, 299 Stern, Nicholas, 213, 292 Stiglitz, Joseph, 213, 227 stock exchanges, 241 Strait of Malacca, 201 student associations, 110 Subic Bay Naval Station, 201 Subramanian, Arvind, 225 Sudan, 114, 115, 185, 206, 208, 285 aid to, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 violence in, 285 Suharto, 99, 112, 122, 126, 138–39, 144 Sumatra, 152 Summers, Lawrence, 88, 227, 235, 246, 257 Sustainable Development Goals, 217 Swaziland, life expectancy in, 266 sweatshops, 58 Sweden, 159 Switzerland, 27, 202 Sydney, 201 Syria, 8, 285 aid to, 224 conflict in, 118, 119, 146, 233, 255 in Six-Day War, 285 Taiwan, 29, 153, 201, 289, 290 aid to, 216 benign dictatorship in, 126 democracy in, 122, 126, 250 and globalization, 155 growth in, 125, 139, 147, 236, 262 individual leadership in, 187 lack of resources in, 205 Tajikstan, 205, 208 Tanzania: aid to, 214, 216 and democracy, 248 fruit markets in, 58 growth in, 45, 50, 238, 240, 261 purchasing power in, 27 reforms in, 192 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 tariffs, 44, 102, 155, 167, 193, 263, 305 Tarp, Finn, 226 tax revenues, 241, 247 Taylor, Charles, 99, 145 technology, x, 17, 19, 22, 94–96, 135, 150, 151–79, 183, 200, 206–7, 234, 245, 258, 294, 301 for agriculture, 170–71 for banking, 175, 179 in China, 154–55, 236 for education, 178–79 globalization and, 156, 166 for health, 173–75, 179, 293 terrorism and, 287–88 telecommunications, 158 Terai, 211 terms-of-trade ratio, 54 terrorism, 19, 20, 21, 146, 286–88 tetanus, 94, 161 textiles, 25, 56, 139, 152 Thailand, 9, 22, 36, 253–55, 265 benign dictatorship in, 126 child mortality in, 84 corruption in, 254, 264 and democracy, 248, 253–54, 255, 263 growth in, 139, 147, 262 protests in, 255, 263 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Theroux, Paul, 12 Things Fall Apart (Achebe), 72 think tanks, 110 Third Wave, The (Huntington), 121 Thomas, Brendon, 90–91 Tiananmen Square, 148 Tibet, 203 Tigris, 285 timber, 61, 139, 206, 223, 285 Timbuktu, 206 Timor-Leste, 36, 139, 144, 184, 220 aid to, 223 democracy in, 106, 122 infrastructure investment in, 216 poverty in, 122 tin, 139 Tokyo, 201, 277 totalitarianism, 10–11, 16 tourism, 45 toys, 56, 139 trade, x, 6, 17, 20, 22, 52, 156, 157, 162–63, 193, 203, 204–5, 234, 257, 303 in agriculture, 273 Asian economic miracle and, 170, 201 growth of, 157, 158–59, 160 sea-based, 200–201 shipping containers and, 167–68 trade unions, 110 transportation, 166, 261 Truth and Reconciliation Commission, 182 T-shirts, 159, 164 Tuareg, 265 tuberculosis, 75, 94, 161, 205, 214 Tull, Jethro, 25 Tunisia: democracy in, 7, 106, 124, 255, 263 growth in, 50, 238 Turkey, 36, 127, 285 aid to, 223 authoritarian rule in, 255 demand in, 53 democracy in, 106, 123, 124, 263 future of, 234 growth in, 6, 7, 22, 235, 238 protests in, 263 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 Turkmenistan, 114, 266, 285 Tutu, Desmond, 18, 103, 185 Uganda, 106, 112, 144, 159, 287 aid to, 216 and democracy, 263, 264 growth in, 50 horticulture producers in, 169 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 infrastructure investment in, 216 mobile phones in, 176–77 Ukraine, 143, 192, 233 Ultimate Resource, The (Simon), 294 unemployment benefits, 38, 164 United Fruit Company, 223 United Nations, 79, 212, 217, 258, 275, 298, 309 United Nations’ International Labour Organization, 57 United States, 19, 47, 68, 148, 231, 292, 300 China’s relationship with, 298–99 countries controlled by, 141 coups supported by, 100 democracy criticized in, 126 democracy in, 112, 296 and dictatorships, 139, 222 Iraq invasion by, 8, 118, 124, 146 leadership needed by, 234 natural capital in, 63 Panama invaded by, 144 post–World War II boom in, 262 protection provided by, 289–90 in World War II, 137 universities, 247 urbanization, 4, 22, 233, 268, 276–77, 279 US Agency for International Development (USAID), 95, 170, 171, 216, 308 Uyuni Sal Flat, 205 Uzbekistan, 8, 145, 185, 281, 285 vaccines, 77, 94, 161, 214, 233, 302 Velvet Revolution, 103 Venezuela, 22, 47, 106, 115 and democracy, 248, 263, 264 economic problems in, 255 natural capital in, 63 Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie (VOC), 136–37 Vietnam, 36, 106, 144, 289 aid to, 214, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 growth in, 7, 45, 50, 125, 128, 147, 262 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 life expectancy in, 78 rice yields in, 215–16 textiles from, 56 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Vietnam War, 100, 138, 141, 145, 289 Vincent, Jeffrey, 61 violence, 6, 20, 290 decline in, 4, 115–20, 116, 117, 119, 145–46 poverty deepened by, 119, 119 and poverty traps, 15 over resources, 284–86 Vitamin A deficiency, 173–74 Viviano, Frank, 152 Wade, Abdoulaye, 114, 224 Wałesa, Lech, 18, 103, 143, 149, 184, 186 Walls, Peter, 181 Walmart, 46 Wang Huan, 90–91 war, 5 attention to, 10 and poverty traps, 15 reduction of, 3, 4, 6 watchdog groups, 110 water, 77, 80, 161, 216, 275, 277–80, 307 water conservation, 233 water pollution, 8 water shortages, 22, 73 Watt, James, 25 Wealth and Poverty of Nations, The (Landes), 13 Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 200–201 Weber, Max, 120 West Africa, 8, 10, 22, 205 colonialism in, 140 West Bengal, 31 Western Samoa, 75, 202 What We Know (AAAS report), 281–82 “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down” (Eichengreen et al.), 236 White, Howard, 226 white supremacy, 124 “Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed?”


Who Rules the World? by Noam Chomsky

"Robert Solow", Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, corporate governance, corporate personhood, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Howard Zinn, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, liberation theology, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, nuclear winter, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, one-state solution, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, precariat, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Stanislav Petrov, structural adjustment programs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, trade route, union organizing, uranium enrichment, wage slave, WikiLeaks, working-age population

“The door is closing,” the IEA’s chief economist said, and very soon it “will be closed forever.”13 Shortly before that, the U.S. Department of Energy reported its annual carbon dioxide emissions figures, which “jumped by the biggest amount on record,” to a level higher than the worst-case scenario anticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).14 That came as no surprise to many scientists, including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s program on climate change, which for years has warned that the IPCC’s predictions are too conservative. Such critics of the IPCC predictions receive virtually no public attention, unlike the fringe climate change denialists who are supported by the corporate sector, along with huge propaganda campaigns that have driven many Americans off the international spectrum in their dismissal of the threats of climate change.

Humanitarian Law Project Holocaust Honduras Hoodbhoy, Pervez Hoover Institution Hout, Shafiq al- Hull, Cordell humanitarian intervention human rights Human Rights Watch Hungary Huntington, Samuel P. Hussein, Saddam Husseini, Faisal Ibrahim, Youssef Ickes, Harold immigrants imperialism India Indians (Native Americans) indigenous populations Indochina Indonesia industrial revolution Industrial Workers of the World inequality Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) internal security International Court of Justice International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia International Energy Agency International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War International Security Intifada Iran coup of 1953 Iran Air Flight 655 Iran-Iraq war Iraq U.S. invasion of Ireland Iron Fist operations ISIS (Islamic State) Islamic Jihad Islamic world Israel.


pages: 330 words: 99,044

Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire by Rebecca Henderson

Airbnb, asset allocation, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, business climate, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, crony capitalism, dark matter, decarbonisation, disruptive innovation, double entry bookkeeping, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, fixed income, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, greed is good, Hans Rosling, Howard Zinn, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), joint-stock company, Kickstarter, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, mittelstand, Mont Pelerin Society, Nelson Mandela, passive investing, Paul Samuelson, Philip Mirowski, profit maximization, race to the bottom, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Second Machine Age, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, Steven Pinker, stocks for the long run, Tim Cook: Apple, total factor productivity, Toyota Production System, uber lyft, urban planning, Washington Consensus, working-age population, Zipcar

WHO (World Health Organization), “Health Benefits Far Outweigh the Costs of Meeting Climate Change Goals,” www.who.int/news-room/detail/05-12-2018-health-benefits-far-outweigh-the-costs-of-meeting-climate-change-goals; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, and L. L.White (Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014). 2. IPCC, Climate Change 2014; WWAP (UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2019: Leaving No One Behind (Paris: UNESCO, 2019), www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/half-world-face-severe-water-stress-2030-unless-water-use-decoupled. 3.

Who Stood Up to President Trump: Ken Frazier Speaks Out,” New York Times, Feb. 19, 2018, www.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/business/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-trump.html. 42. Matthew E. Kahn et al., “Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis,” NBER Working Paper no. w26167 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019). 43. IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, edited by O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel, and J. C. Minx (Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014). 44. Dimitri Zenghelis, “How Much Will It Cost to Cut Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions?”

Appropriate regulation—something like a carbon tax or a carbon cap—would not only allow the global economy to decarbonize at minimal cost but would also open up billions of dollars in new market opportunities. Decarbonization will be expensive. But unchecked climate change will cost billions of dollars more. Current estimates suggest that climate change could cost the US economy as much as 10 percent of GDP by the end of the century and destabilize the world’s food supply.42 The IPCC estimates that keeping GHG emissions to a level that offers a 66 percent chance of not exceeding 2°C warming would cost 3 to 11 percent of world GDP by 2100.43 But leaving global warming unchecked might cost 23 to 74 percent of global per capita GDP by 2100 in lost agricultural production, health risks, flooded cities, and other major disruptions.44 Unchecked climate change will also impose irreversible harm on coming generations.


The Economics Anti-Textbook: A Critical Thinker's Guide to Microeconomics by Rod Hill, Anthony Myatt

American ideology, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, bank run, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, business cycle, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, different worldview, endogenous growth, equal pay for equal work, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, failed state, financial innovation, full employment, gender pay gap, Gini coefficient, Gunnar Myrdal, happiness index / gross national happiness, Home mortgage interest deduction, Howard Zinn, income inequality, indoor plumbing, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, liberal capitalism, low skilled workers, market bubble, market clearing, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, medical malpractice, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, Peter Singer: altruism, positional goods, prediction markets, price discrimination, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, profit motive, publication bias, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, random walk, rent control, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, The Myth of the Rational Market, the payments system, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, ultimatum game, union organizing, working-age population, World Values Survey, Yogi Berra

Aside from the crude measure of simply renting politicians, the businessas-usual lobby also rents ‘climate change sceptics’ and funds so-called ‘think tanks’ to give the policy of inaction some intellectual cover. Their strategy is to create an impression of controversy over the science, the same strategy that was 155 7  |  Externalities … people around the world are already suffering from past emissions, and current emissions will have potentially catastrophic impacts in the future … The scientific evidence on the potential risks is now overwhelming, as demonstrated in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. (2008: 1–2) used successfully for so long by the tobacco industry and its public relations advisers, as we saw in Chapter 5.4 As a consultant to the US Republican Party wrote in 2002, ‘Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue’ (Gelbspan 2004: 41).

Holt, S. (1992) ‘The sequence of market structures: teaching perfect competition last’, Unpublished paper. Hudson, I. and M. Hudson (2003) ‘Removing the veil? Commodity fetishism, fair trade, and the environment’, Organization and Environment, 16(4): 413–30. Hunt, E. K. and H. J. Sherman (2008) Economics: An introduction to traditional and radical views, 7th edn, New York: M. E. Sharpe. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, available at www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4–wg1.htm. International Agency for Research on Cancer (2005) Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, vols 1–8 (updated) and vol. 9, Lyons: International Agency for Research on Cancer, available at wwwdep.iarc.fr/. Jacobson, L. S., R. L. La Londe and D. G. Sullivan (1993) ‘Earnings losses of displaced workers’, American Economic Review, 83(2): 23–6.

., 139 lobbyists, 109, 111 long-run costs, 104–5 Lunn, Pete, 25, 243 301 Index imperfect information see information, imperfect import protection, 219–24; quotas, 221 inaction, collective, 112–13 incentives, 9, 14, 129, 186, 203; backfiring of, 24; bad, 193 indeterminate and unstable economy, 72 India, influenza epidemic, 39 individual: focus on, 42; versus community, 17–18; versus corporation, 18–20 inefficiency, 13, 27, 51, 244 inequality, 205, 249; economic, 203–4; effect on efficiency, 20–1; of income, 90, 198–200; of wages, 227; of wealth, 200–1; pervasive costs of, 213–17 infant formula, marketing of, 82–3 infant industries policy, 222 information, 167, 233–4; about job risks, 162; asymmetric and imperfect, 1, 5, 7, 12, 22, 55, 67, 69–70, 78, 83–7, 114, 115, 142, 161, 166, 224, 231, 250 (importance of, 256–7); complete, 232; lack of, 174; perfect, 6, 54, 57, 78, 92, 120, 160, 169 (and costless, 5) information economics, 106 innovation, 132, 134, 135, 248 inspection-goods, 141, 142, 144, 250 Intel, 133 intellectual property rights, 235, 237 interest rates, 258, 259 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 155 International Labour Organization (ILO), 160, 161 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 235 International Telephone and Telegraph corporation, 240 invisible hand, 6, 13, 17, 22, 64, 86, 154, 250 Iran, coup d’état in, 240 malnutrition, of children, 201 management compensation see executive compensation Mankiw, N. G., 54, 226 Manning, Alan, 187, 189 Mansfield, Edwin, 103, 104, 105, 259, 260 marginal benefits, 10–11, 13, 118, 122, 131, 150 marginal costs, 10–11, 38, 97, 118, 119, 175, 176, 203; social, 151–2 marginal productivity of labour, 94–7 marginal productivity theory of income distribution, 169–95; empirical testing of, 184–5; fuzziness of, 183 marginal revenue product (MRP), 170 marginal utility, 75–6 Marglin, Stephen, 9, 16–18, 25, 26, 44, 206, 228, 243, 252–4 market: anomalies of, 147, 148; as means of organizing activity, 12–13; efficiency of, 18; equilibrium, 48; failures, ubiquity of, 150–68; frictions in, 187–9; idolization of, 4; non-competitive, 122–3; structure of, 118–49; types of, 54, 118; workings of, 53 (imagined, 46–73) see also failure of markets market fundamentalism, 4–5, 140, 248 Marmot, Michael, 213, 216 Marx, Karl, 167 McCloskey, D., 32, 36–40, 246 McConnell, C.


pages: 432 words: 124,635

Happy City: Transforming Our Lives Through Urban Design by Charles Montgomery

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, agricultural Revolution, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon footprint, centre right, City Beautiful movement, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, East Village, edge city, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, experimental subject, Frank Gehry, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, license plate recognition, McMansion, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, New Urbanism, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, science of happiness, Seaside, Florida, Silicon Valley, starchitect, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transit-oriented development, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban sprawl, wage slave, white flight, World Values Survey, zero-sum game, Zipcar

These highways: Todd Litman, Generated Traffic and Induced Travel Implications for Transport Planning (Victoria, BC: Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2010); interview with Howard Frumkin of the Centers for Disease Control in the Web series American Makeover, episode 1, “Sprawlanta,” www.americanmakeover.tv/episode1.html (accessed February 2, 2011). United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: core writing team, R. K. Pachauri, and A. Reisinger, eds., Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008). The travel time: Green, Charles, Health Plenary Address, Congress for New Urbanism 18, Atlanta, May 20, 2010. This we know: Thomas, C., et al., “Extinction Risk from Climate Change,” Nature, 2004: 145–48. alarmed the insurance industry: Fogarty, David, “Climate Change Growing Risk for Insurers: Industry,” Planet Ark, January 20, 2011, http://planetark.org/wen/60947 (accessed January 21, 2011).

Here are some things we know: The earth’s atmosphere is warming at an unprecedented pace, mainly as a result of human activity causing greenhouse gas emissions. On this point there is agreement from every peer-reviewed journal on the subject, and from the national scientific academies of Canada, China, Brazil, India, Russia, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, Mexico, the United Kingdom, the United States, and dozens of other countries,† as well as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which synthesizes the work of the biggest group of scientists ever to focus on a single issue. Which is to say that to the very best of human knowledge, we are blowing so much methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide into the air that we are throwing the delicate system governing climate and weather out of whack. This we know: climate change is likely to cause more heat waves, droughts, intense storms, cyclones, and tornadoes; the inundation of lowland cities; the spread of infectious diseases; crop failures; and famine that may collectively kill hundreds of millions of people and impoverish many more, not to mention the disappearance of 15 to 37 percent of species by 2050.

*These highways helped scatter 90 percent of Atlanta’s growing population out of the urban core. *The travel time in Atlanta grew faster in the 1990s than in any other American city. The average person’s time spent in Atlanta traffic rose from six hours a year to thirty-four hours between 1990 and 2000 alone. †A survey of just a few of the national scientific institutions that support the IPCC’s findings on climate change: Academia Brasileira de Ciências, the Royal Society of Canada, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Académie des Sciences, Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina, the Indian National Science Academy, Accademia dei Lincei, the Science Council of Japan, the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Royal Society of the United Kingdom, and the National Academy of Sciences (from “Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change,” Washington, DC: The National Academies, 2005), as well as the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the governments of all G8 nations.


pages: 286 words: 87,168

Less Is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World by Jason Hickel

air freight, Airbnb, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, cognitive dissonance, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate personhood, COVID-19, David Graeber, decarbonisation, declining real wages, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Elon Musk, energy transition, Fellow of the Royal Society, Fractional reserve banking, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, gender pay gap, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, land reform, liberal capitalism, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, McMansion, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Naomi Klein, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, passive income, planetary scale, plutocrats, Plutocrats, quantitative easing, rent control, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, Simon Kuznets, structural adjustment programs, the scientific method, The Spirit Level, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, universal basic income

According to NASA, droughts in the American plains and in the South-west could turn these regions into dust bowls.21 As a handy rule of thumb, scientists say that for every degree we heat the planet, the yields of staple cereal crops will decline by 10%.22 On our present trajectory, that means losses of up to 30% this century. In some cases it will be worse: Indian wheat and US corn could plummet by as much as 60%.23 Under normal circumstances, regional food shortages can be covered by surpluses from elsewhere on the planet. But climate breakdown could trigger shortages on multiple continents at once. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming more than 2 degrees is likely to cause ‘sustained food supply disruptions globally’. As one of the lead authors of the report put it: ‘The potential risk of multi-breadbasket failure is increasing.’ Add this to soil depletion, pollinator die-off and fishery collapse, and we’re looking at spiralling food emergencies. This will have serious implications for global political stability.

It held out the tantalising possibility of meeting our climate goals while keeping capitalism intact, and while allowing rich nations, who wield so much power in the climate negotiations, to maintain their high levels of consumption. It was incredibly alluring – a kind of get-out-of-jail-free card – and it offered real hope to green growth optimists. A few years after Obersteiner’s paper was published the IPCC started including BECCS in its official models, even though there was still no evidence of its feasibility. And in 2014 the idea took centre stage: BECCS appeared in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), not only as a side show, but as the dominant assumption in no fewer than 101 of the 116 scenarios for staying under 2°C. AR5 is the blueprint that the Paris Agreement relies on. Governments are using the AR5 scenarios as a guide when it comes to deciding how quickly to reduce their emissions.

Even if all the countries in the world fulfil their pledges – which are voluntary and non-binding, so there’s certainly no guarantee of this – global emissions will keep rising. We’ll still be hurtling towards 3.3°C of global warming by the end of the century. In other words, even with the Paris Agreement in place, we’re on track for catastrophe. What’s going on here? How is it possible that emissions will keep rising even under a plan that’s meant to cut them? And why does nobody seem to be worried about this? There’s a backstory. In the early 2000s, IPCC modellers realised that the emissions reductions required to keep climate change under control were so steep that they were likely to be incompatible with continued economic growth. Growing the global economy means growing energy demand, and growing energy demand makes the task of transitioning to clean energy significantly more difficult. As long as energy demand keeps going up it’s unlikely we’ll be able to roll out enough clean energy to cover it in the short time we have left.


pages: 362 words: 104,308

Forty Signs of Rain by Kim Stanley Robinson

bioinformatics, business intelligence, double helix, experimental subject, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), phenotype, prisoner's dilemma, Ronald Reagan, social intelligence, stem cell, the scientific method, zero-sum game

He was testing the temperature of the thawed milk by taking a quick suck on the nipple when his phone rang. He whipped on a headset and answered. “Hi Charlie, it’s Roy.” “Oh hi Roy, what’s up.” “Well I’ve got your latest draft here and I’m about to read it, and I thought I’d check first to see what I should be looking for, how you solved the IPCC stuff.” “Oh yeah. The new stuff that matters is all in the third section.” The bill as Charlie had drafted it for Phil would require the U.S. to act on certain recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “Did you kind of bury the part about us conforming to IPCC findings?” “I don’t think there’s earth deep enough to bury that one. I tried to put it in a context that made it look inevitable. International body that we are part of, climate change clearly real, the UN the best body to work through global issues, support for them pretty much mandatory for us or else the whole world cooks in our juices, that sort of thing.”

And hip to at least the most obvious of movie trivia. Charlie couldn’t help feeling a bit reassured. Now the President said, “That’s nice, Charles, let’s get to it then, shall we? I heard from Dr. S. here about the meeting this morning, and I wanted to check in on it in person, because I like Phil Chase. And I understand that Phil now wants us to join in with the actions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to the point of introducing a bill mandating our participation in whatever action they recommend, no matter what it is. And this is a UN panel.” “Well,” Charlie said, shifting gears into ultradiplomatic mode, not just for the President but for the absent Phil, who was going to be upset with him no matter what he said, since only Phil should actually be talking to the President about this stuff.

“Come on it’s a lot more than that, young man, it’s one of the few chances we have left to avoid complete global disaster, I mean—” “Preaching to the converted! Preaching to the converted!” “I certainly hope so.” “Sure sure. Okay, I’ll read this draft and get back to you ASAP. I want to move on with this, and the committee discussion is now scheduled for Tuesday.” “That’s fine, I’ll have my phone with me all day.” “Sounds good, I’ll be in touch, but meanwhile be thinking about how to slip the IPCC thing in even deeper.” “Yeah okay but see what I did already.” “Sure bye.” “Bye.” Charlie pulled off the headset and turned off the stove. Joe finished his bottle, inspected it, tossed it casually aside. “Man, you are fast,” Charlie said as he always did. One of the mutual satisfactions of their days together was doing the same things over and over again, and saying the same things about them.


pages: 1,152 words: 266,246

Why the West Rules--For Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future by Ian Morris

addicted to oil, Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Arthur Eddington, Atahualpa, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Columbian Exchange, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, defense in depth, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of the americas, Doomsday Clock, en.wikipedia.org, falling living standards, Flynn Effect, Francisco Pizarro, global village, God and Mammon, hiring and firing, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Kickstarter, Kitchen Debate, knowledge economy, market bubble, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, out of africa, Peter Thiel, phenotype, pink-collar, place-making, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Scientific racism, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, Sinatra Doctrine, South China Sea, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade route, upwardly mobile, wage slave, washing machines reduced drudgery

In the past, higher temperatures often meant better agricultural yields and rising development (as in the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods), but this time may be different. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested in 2007 that “Altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, together with sea level rise, are expected to have mostly adverse effects on natural and human systems … warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible.” And that may be putting it mildly; the small print in their report is even more alarming. The air bubbles in the ice caps show that carbon dioxide levels have fluctuated across the last 650,000 years, from just 180 molecules of carbon dioxide per million molecules of air in the ice ages to 290 parts per million (ppm) in warm interglacials. Carbon dioxide never reached 300 ppm—until 1958. By May 2010 it was clocked at 393 ppm, and the IPCC estimates that if present trends continue unchecked, carbon dioxide levels will reach 550 ppm by 2050—higher than they have been for 24 million years—and average temperatures will jump another 5°F.

Africans and the Industrial Revolution in England. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002. ———. “Africa and the Globalization Process: Western Africa, 1450–1850.” Journal of Global History 2 (2007), pp. 63–86. Institute for International Strategic Studies. The Military Balance 2009. London: Institute for International Strategic Studies, 2009. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007. http://www/ipcc.ch/. International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Update, July 8, 2009 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/02). Iriye, Akira. The Origins of the Second World War in Asia and the Pacific. London: Longman, 1987. Irwin, Douglas. Against the Tide: An Intellectual History of Free Trade. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996.

., 585 Treatise on Agriculture (Wang Zhen), 379, 420n Tripitaka (“Three Baskets” of Buddhist canon), 256 Trobriand Islands, 133, 137 Troy, 199, 241 True Levellers, 452 Tunisia, 315, 364 Turkana Boy, 45, 52, 57 Turkey, 81, 97, 197n, 431, 443–46, 452, 453, 459–61, 528, 605n archaeological sites in, 96, 100, 102–103, 105, 123–25 modernization of, 571 Turkic peoples, 348, 349, 354–56, 358, 361, 364, 366–67, 372, 567; Ottoman, see Ottomans Turkmenistan, 125, 189 2001: A Space Odyssey (Clarke), 63, 149, 182, 183 Ugarit (Syria), 216, 217, 220, 225 Ukraine, 196, 295, 458 Uluburun (Anatolia), 200 ’Umar, 351 Undefeated Sun, 323 United Arab Emirates, 605n United Monarchy, 234 United Nations, 150, 610 Food and Agriculture Organization, 601 Human Development Index, 145–47, 149–50 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 599 United States, 31, 35, 158, 488, 531, 601n, 604, 605, 612, 634 carbon emissions of, 18, 538, 609 China and, 518, 546–47, 585–88, 606 diseases in, 603 economy of, 12, 34, 225, 529–31, 535, 540–41, 542, 553, 578, 582, 588, 597, 598, 615 emigration to, 509, 603 impact of climate change in, 600 industrialization in, 510, 521 Japan and, 10, 534 military spending in, 548, 631 neo-evolutionary theory in, 138–39 nuclear weapons and, 605–606, 608, 616 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on, 551 Soviet Union and, 526, 527, 533–35, 540–42, 550, 580, 616 technology in, 542, 594, 597, 615 in Vietnam War, 535 in World War I, 529 in World War II, 52, 532, 533, 579 Universal History (Polybius), 263–64 Ur (Mesopotamia), 193–94 Royal Cemetery of, 188–89 Urartu, 248 Urban II, Pope, 372 Uruk (Mesopotamia), 181–88, 190, 192, 194, 203, 206, 207, 210, 223, 229, 562, 610 Uzbekistan, 59, 366, 606n Vagnari (Italy), 273 Valencia, 438 Valens, Emperor, 312, 313 Valerian, Emperor, 310, 328 Vandals, 313, 315, 316, 345 Vedas, 137 Venice, 371, 373, 384, 392, 402, 404, 420n, 427, 429, 431–32, 459 Venter, Craig, 595, 596 Verne, Jules, 507, 511 Vespasian, Emperor, 286 Viagra, 594 Victoria, Queen of England, 6, 7, 10–11, 14, 148 Vienna, Congress of, 489 Vietnam, 11, 127, 407, 408, 587 Vietnam War, 106, 140, 141, 502n, 535 Vikings, 363, 364, 371, 421, 427 Vinland, 371 Virgil, 286 Voltaire, 13, 280, 472–74, 481 von Däniken, Erich, 182–83, 186, 189, 194, 215, 253, 399, 410, 614n Voyage on the Red Sea, The, 273, 275 Wagner, Lindsay, 594 Wales, 472n Wal-Mart, 553 Wang Anshi, 376, 421 Wang Feng, 18 Wang Mang, Emperor, 299 Wang Qirong, 210–11 Wang Yangming, 426, 453, 473n Wang Zhen, 379–80, 420n Wanli, Emperor, 442–43 War and Peace (Tolstoy), 113 Wardi, al-, 398 War of the East, 524, 532 Warring States period, 244n, 264 War of the West, 486–89, 524, 526, 532, 534, 550 Waterloo, battle of, 486 Watt, James, 494–97, 500, 502, 504, 567, 568, 573 Wayne, John, 18 Wealth and Poverty of Nations, The (Landes), 17 weapons, 151, 180, 185, 197, 217, 295, 389 in China, 305, 374, 380 nuclear, see nuclear weapons high-tech, 548, 591–92, 615–16, 618 iron and bronze, 128–29, 181, 191, 200, 208, 233–34, 276 of mass destruction, 605 prehistoric, 57, 80 siege, 277 in World War I, 526; see also guns Weber, Max, 136–37 Wedgwood, Josiah, 498 Wei (China), 265, 266, 335n Weiss, Harvey, 192 Wellington, Duke of, 486 Wendi, Emperor, 337, 345, 346, 354 West Germany, 533, 535 Wheeler, Brigadier Mortimer, 274–75 White, Leslie, 148 Whitney, Eli, 496 Wilhelm II, Kaiser, 524, 525 Wilkinson, John (“Iron-Mad”), 495 William I (“the Conqueror”), King, 194 William of Orange, 20 Wire, The (television show), 442 Woods, Tiger, 594 Wordsworth, William, 491–92 World Bank, 547, 603 World Health Organization, 603–604 World Trade Organization, 610 World War I, 65, 133, 526–29, 531, 533, 605 World War II, 17, 52, 254, 273–75, 526, 531–34, 565, 578, 579, 608 Wozniak, Steve, 542 Wright brothers, 510 Wu (China), 245, 524 Wu, King, 229–31 Wudi, Emperor (Han dynasty), 285, 294, 457 Wudi, Emperor (Liang dynasty), 329 Wuding, King, 212–15, 220, 221 Wu Zetian, 340–42, 344, 345, 355, 363n Wuzong, Emperor, 375 Xia dynasty, 205–209, 214, 235, 245 Xian, Marquis, 251 Xianbei, 335–36 Xiandi, Emperor, 302–304 Xianfeng, Emperor, 10 Xiangyang (China), 392 Xiaowen, Emperor, 336, 338, 362 Xiongnu, 293–95, 298, 299, 301, 303–305, 310, 314, 349, 354 Xishan (China), 124 Xishuipo (China), 126 Xuan, King, 242 Xuan, Marquis, 251 Xuanzong, Emperor, 355–57, 359 Xuchang (China), 79 Xu Fu, 421n Xunzi, 259 Yahgan people, 139 Yale University, 30, 192 Yan (China), 265n Yang, Prince, 221 Yang Guifei, 355–56, 424 Yangzhou (China), 442 Yanshi (China), 209 Yan Wenming, 120, 121 Yellow Turbans, 302 Yemen, 349 Yesugei, 388 Yih, King, 233 Yom Kippur/Ramadan conflict, 90 Yongle, Emperor, 406, 407, 413, 414, 416, 426, 429 You, King, 242–43, 355 Younger Dryas, 92–94, 96, 100, 114, 119, 122, 175, 577–78 Yu, King, 204–208, 214 Yuan dynasty, 587 Yuan Shikai, 528 Yue (China), 524 Yu Hong, 342 Yukichi, Fukuzawa, 15 Zemeckis, Robert, 572 Zeno, Emperor, 316–17 Zenobia, Queen, 311 Zhang Zhuzheng, 442–43 Zhao, King, 232 Zhao (China), 265, 266, 279 Zhaodun, 252–53 Zheng, King, 266–67 Zheng (China), 244 Zhengde, Emperor, 441 Zheng He, 16, 17, 407, 408, 413, 417, 420n, 426, 429, 433, 589 Zhengtong, Emperor, 413, 416, 417 Zhengzhou (China), 209–10, 212 Zhou, Duke of, 230, 257 Zhou, Madame, 424, 426 Zhou dynasty, 214, 221–22, 229–37, 242–45, 250–51, 253, 257, 278, 285, 355, 359n, 369 Zhoukoudian (China), 51–55, 57, 60, 72, 78, 154, 210n, 211 Zhou Man, 408, 410, 413 Zhuangzi, 257–59 Zhu Xi, 422–24, 426, 453 Zhu Yuanzhang, 404–405 Zoroaster, 254n Zoroastrianism, 328, 342 Zuozhuan (commentary on historical documents), 252–53 *Some people think Chinese sailors even reached the Americas in the fifteenth century, but, as I will try to show in Chapter 8, these claims are probably fanciful.


pages: 944 words: 243,883

Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power by Steve Coll

addicted to oil, anti-communist, Atul Gawande, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, call centre, carbon footprint, clean water, collapse of Lehman Brothers, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, decarbonisation, energy security, European colonialism, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Google Earth, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, income inequality, industrial robot, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inventory management, kremlinology, market fundamentalism, McMansion, medical malpractice, Mikhail Gorbachev, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, place-making, Ponzi scheme, price mechanism, profit maximization, profit motive, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, Scramble for Africa, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, smart meter, statistical model, Steve Jobs, WikiLeaks

In 1980, just after the publication of the National Academy study, the corporation hired its own astrophysicist, Brian Flannery, who had taught at Harvard University. A few years later Flannery recruited a chemical engineer named Haroon Kheshgi, who had worked at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Flannery and Kheshgi started to produce, while salaried employees for Exxon, peer-reviewed research for the United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or I.P.C.C. This was a network of many dozens of mostly academic and government scientists established to create definitive assessments, at multiyear intervals, of the scientific evidence about global warming. Exxon’s climate scientists also used corporate funds to support climate-modeling research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. They produced internal assessments of the scientific and policy questions for Exxon’s Management Committee.

“Climate Policy and Energy Security: Two Sides of the Same Coin?” Baker Institute, Houston, November 19, 2008. “The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers and R&D Needs.” National Research Council and the National Academy of Engineering, National Academy of Sciences Press, 2004. “Interagency Support on Conflict Assessment and Mission Performance Planning for Chad.” March 20, 2006. “IPCC Second Assessment: Climate Change 1995.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and subsequent assessments. “Keeping Foreign Corruption Out of the United States: Four Case Histories.” Majority and Minority Staff Report, United States Senate, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, February 4, 2010. Levi, Michael A. “The Canadian Oil Sands: Energy Security vs. Climate Change.”

., 526 Imperial Oil, 544 Inconvenient Truth, An (film), 337 India, 224, 257, 303, 310, 324, 415, 420, 422, 440, 457, 512, 559, 618, 620 Indonesia, 20, 59, 62, 93–94, 95, 99–100, 102, 104, 107, 112–13, 114–15, 116, 197, 232, 351, 352, 364, 415, 419, 636n John Doe lawsuit and, 120, 399–406, 621 2004 tsunami in, 402–7 see also Aceh war Indonesian National Army, see T.N.I. Industry and Trade Ministry, Indonesian, 114 Ingersol, Scott, 562 Inhofe, James, 87, 185 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (I.P.C.C.), 79, 81, 88, 347, 635n Interior Department, U.S., 605–8, 609, 610 Interior Ministry, Saudi, 207 Internal Revenue Service, 188 International Committee of the Red Cross, 111 International Labor Rights Forum, 119 International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.), 259, 358 International Peace Operations Association, 281 International Space Station, 252 Internet, 441–42 I.P.T., 374 Iran, 2, 52, 54, 161, 196, 197, 203, 205, 222, 245, 246, 247, 249, 415, 419, 421, 436, 440, 511–12, 519, 520, 567, 618 Iranian Revolution of 1979, 29, 52, 95, 239, 242 Iraq, 52, 54, 197, 203, 205, 222, 228, 281, 293, 360, 419, 436, 440, 641n Kurdish oil industry in, 567–69, 622–23 oil reserves of, 230, 248, 249, 558 Rumaila oil field of, 571 Sunni-Shia rift in, 559, 622 West Qurnah oil field of, 572, 574, 575, 622 Zubair oil field of, 575 Iraq National Oil Company, 231 Iraq Petroleum Company, 231 Iraq War, 227–30, 243, 303, 324, 435, 499 Bush (G.


pages: 219 words: 65,532

The Numbers Game: The Commonsense Guide to Understanding Numbers in the News,in Politics, and inLife by Michael Blastland, Andrew Dilnot

Atul Gawande, business climate, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, happiness index / gross national happiness, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), moral panic, pension reform, pensions crisis, randomized controlled trial, school choice, very high income

Two out of three mean the story is wasting your time, because the easiest way to say something shocking with figures is to be wrong. Outliers—numbers that don’t fit the mold—need especial caution: their claims are large, the stakes are high, and so the proper reaction is neither blanket skepticism, nor slack-jawed credulousness, but demand for a higher standard of proof. Greenhouse gases could cause global temperatures to rise by more than double the maximum warming so far considered likely by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to results from the world’s largest climate prediction experiment, published in the journal Nature this week. These were the words of the press release that led to alarmist headlines in 2005. It continued: The first results from climateprediction.net, a global experiment using computing time donated by the general public, show that average temperatures could eventually rise by up to 11°C [60°F], even if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are limited to twice those found before the industrial revolution.

health care health-care spending heart attacks heart disease heart surgery hospital waiting lists and medical research and mortality rates performance measurement rankings of health-care systems standards of care waiting-time targets weight and longevity See also cancer Healthcare Commission of Britain Health Protection Agency (HPA) heart attacks heart disease heart surgery hedgehogs HEDIS (Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set) Helena, Montana High Wycombe, England HIV/AIDS Hobbit Man Home Office (Britain) Hood, Christopher hospital waiting lists Iceland IID (infectious intestinal diseases) Study illness. See health care immigration income income tax infant development intelligence and birth order Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Council for the Exploration of the Sea International Passenger Survey Interphone Iraq Body Count Iraq war Japan Johns Hopkins University journalists and news media on debt levels on dying pensioners on norovirus epidemic on risks on speed cameras statistical reporting by See also specific newspapers Karinthy, Frigyes Karolinska Institute Kennedy, Charles Kennedy, Sir Ian Kesteven and Grantham Girls’ School King, Mervyn Kleinfeld, Judith Lancet Lawrence, Audrey Liberal Democrats (Britain) life expectancies longevity and weight Loveday, Joshua malaria in East Africa Malta Mammals on Roads Survey Marmor, Ted mastectomies math-skills rankings mean meat, processed median medical research Medicare Middle America Middle Britain Milburn, Alan Milgram, Stanley Mississippi mobile phones mode Mohammed, Mohammed More Damned Lies and Statistics (Best) mortality rates for AIDS/HIV child mortality and general practitioners on roads in UK hospitals multiple sclerosis (MS) Naegele’s Rule National Health Service (NHS) National Hedgehog Survey National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism National Lottery of Britain National Public Radio National Statistics (Britain) natural frequencies Nature Newfoundland New York City New York Observer New York Times Nicomachean Ethics (Aristotle) No Child Left Behind (NCLB) norovirus epidemic North Sea nutritional supplements Obendorf, Peter Olympic games Oman Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Oster, Emily outliers in climate change in human height in T/E levels Oxford University passive smoking Patient Choice patient records Pen, Jan pensioners in Britain percentages performance and the blind men and the elephant in education in health care performance indicators in recycling in road safety physicians.


pages: 201 words: 33,620

Lonely Planet's Best in Travel 2020 by Lonely Planet

Airbnb, car-free, carbon footprint, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hyperloop, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Ronald Reagan, sustainable-tourism, trade route

The UN has marked 2020 as a key deadline for reducing the world’s carbon emissions, and most environmentalists agree that, for travellers, flying is the biggest emission contributor on an individual level. But what’s a globetrotter to do? Those concerned by the effects of air travel can start by getting wise to the issue and the options available. In 2020, the countries that signed up to the Paris Agreement will submit their long-term CO2 reduction plans to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC has warned that 2020 is the year carbon emissions must peak, with a reduction (crucially) to follow, to prevent a global temperature rise of more than 2°C, which would lead to a detrimental rise in sea levels and extreme climate events from droughts to cyclones. The next set of targets is even more ambitious: emissions now need to be cut in half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.


The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World by John Michael Greer

back-to-the-land, Black Swan, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, David Strachan, deindustrialization, European colonialism, Extropian, failed state, feminist movement, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Santayana, hydrogen economy, hygiene hypothesis, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, mass immigration, McMansion, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, post-industrial society, Project for a New American Century, Ray Kurzweil, Stewart Brand, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, upwardly mobile, Whole Earth Catalog, Y2K

Ziarek, Ewa Plonowska, An Ethics of Dissensus: Postmodernity, Feminism, and the Politics of Radical Democracy, Stanford University Press, 2001. 261 Index A advertising, 155–156 agriculture, 25–28, 30, 147 amateur radio, 156–157, 216 anacyclosis, 231 Anderson, Sherry Ruth, 200 appropriate ecology, 215–216 Aristotle, 214 Augustine of Hippo, 207 B Bacon, Francis, 214 Bateson, Gregory, 222 bats, evolution of, 58–61 Bell, Daniel biodiesel, 106, 116, 151 biodynamic agriculture, 103 biointensive organic gardening, 103 biophobia, 114–115 Black Death, 87 bog iron, 72 Brand, Stewart, 121–122 brewers, 147 Brown, Lester, 94–5 Burke, Edmund, 79 C Carson, Rachel, 11 Catton, William, 41 ceramics industry, Roman, 135–137 cities in the deindustrial world, 182–186 263 264 T he E cotechnic F u t u re climate change, 41, 50–54 climax community, 21–23, 25, 29–30 cob building, 123 composting, 107–112, 113, 115 Condorcet, Marquis de, 228 conserver society, 12 Costanza, Robert, 15 “crackpot realism,” 16 Crimean War, 80 CTL (coal-to-liquids) fuel production, 161–162 “cultural creatives,” 200–201 culture death, 49–50 culture wars, 191 D dark age(s), xiii, 150, 184 Darwin, Charles, 193 decline and fall of civilizations, 17, 38, 150, 243 deep time, 62 democracy, 186–188 depopulation, 39, 41–43 Dijkstra, Bram, 193–194 disintegration, political and cultural, 40, 46–50 dissensus, 96–99, 246 draft horses, 116–117 E Easter Island, 20, 89 ecology, 3, 17, 187, 215–216, 221, 240ecosophy, 221–222, 241ecotechnic trades, 149 education industry, 153–154 emergy (embodied energy), 71 energy flows, 4–5 energy slaves, 142–144, 152–153 energy subsidies, 165–166 ethanol, 13–14, 106 evolution, 35, 57–62, 96, 192–193, 237–238, 243–244 external proletariat, 195 Extropian movement, 226 Index F farmer’s markets, 24, 127–128 feces as fertilizer, 112–115 feminism, 131–133 Ferguson, Marilyn, 201 fossil fuels, 8–12, 33, 61, 69–70, 134, 159, 164 Friedman, Thomas, 53 Friedrichs, Pete, 156 Fukuyama, Francis, 225–226, 229 fundamentalism, Christian, 205–6 G Gentile, Giovanni, 229 ghost acreage, 41, 42 Ghost Dance, 63 Gibbon, Edward, 54 globalism, 64 Google, 37–8 Gould, Stephen Jay, 62 Grafton, Anthony, 232 H hedgerows, 216 Hegel, Georg Wilhelm Friedrich, 229–230 Holmgren, David, 103 home economics, 131–133 homeostasis, 84–88 household economy, 128–130, 133–134, 138–139 Hubbert, M. King, 41 Hubbert curve, 41–42, 75 human ecologies, 6–8, 29, 33, 36, 67 “humanure,” 113 Hummer, 13 hunter-gatherer(s), 6, 25, 61–62 hydrogen economy, 166–167 I ibn Khaldûn, 89–91, 231 illusion of independence, 16–17, 33, 79 imaginary futures, xi, 153, 245 265 266 T he E cotechnic F u t u re information storage, 199 innovation, 161–164 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 51 internal proletariat, 195 irrigation, 89–90 J Japan, 46 Jeavons, John, 103 Jevons’ paradox, 171–173 Jevons, William Stanley, 171 Joachim of Flores, 228, 230 Johnson, Warren, 93 Jung, Carl, 83 K K-selected species, 22–25, 30, 102, 110 Keynes, John Maynard, 37 King, F. H., 27–28 Klingon language, 50 Koestler, Arthur, 194 Korten, David, 186, 193 Ku Klux Klan, 47–8 Kuhn, Thomas, 218 Kunstler, James Howard, 124, 151 L La Graufesenque, 135–136 Laszlo, Ervin, 222 Le Conte, Joseph, 192 Le Corbusier, 119 Leopold, Aldo, 221 Lewis, C.

See John Kenneth Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929, Houghton Mifflin, 1954, for a discussion of the repetitive and predictable nature of speculative booms and busts. 4. See the account in Myron J. Echenberg, Plague Ports: The Global Urban Impact of Bubonic Plague, 1894–1901, New York University Press, 2007. Notes 5. In Catton, Overshoot. 6. See Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak, for a discussion of the Hubbert curve. 7. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, 2007. 8. See Corale L. Brierley et al., Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energies Policy, National Academies Press, 2007. 9. The most drastic of these shifts, around 11,500 years ago, sent global temperatures rising 12°C in less than 50 years. See sciencedaily.com/​releases/​2008/​ 06/080619142112.htm. 10. See Ponting, A Green History of the World, and Richardson B.

Hornborg, Alf, The Power of the Machine: Global Inequalities of Economy, Technology, and Environment, Alta Mira Press, 2001. Hughes, David, “Coal: Some Inconvenient Truths,” presentation to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas-USA fourth annual conference, September 22, 2008. Hutchins, Robert Maynard, ed., Machiavelli and Hobbes, Encyclopedia Britannica, 1952. Ibn Khaldûn, The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History, tr. Franz Rosenthal, Princeton University Press, 1967. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, 2007. Ito, Akihiko, and Takehisa Oikawa, “Global mapping of terrestrial primary productivity and light-use efficiency with a process-based model,” in M. ­Shiyomi et al., eds., Global Environmental Change in the Ocean and on Land, Terrapub, 2004. Jeavons, John, How To Grow More Vegetables Than You Ever Thought Possible on Less Land Than You Can Imagine, Ten Speed, 1979. 257 258 T he E cotechnic F u t u re Jenkins, Joseph, The Humanure Handbook: A Guide to Composting Human Manure, Chelsea Green, 1999.


pages: 407 words: 121,458

Confessions of an Eco-Sinner: Tracking Down the Sources of My Stuff by Fred Pearce

additive manufacturing, air freight, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, British Empire, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, demographic transition, Fall of the Berlin Wall, food miles, ghettoisation, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Kibera, Kickstarter, mass immigration, megacity, Nelson Mandela, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, profit motive, race to the bottom, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, the built environment, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce

In my last book, The Last Generation, I explained why many scientists believe that the world faces a series of dangerous ‘tipping points’ that could make warming happen much faster and more violently than allowed for in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. The threats include the runaway release of greenhouse gases from natural reservoirs like soils, forests and permafrost; the shutdown of the ocean currents and switch-off of the monsoon; and the rapid break-up of ice sheets, causing a sea-level rise of several metres within a century. All these could be unleashed as carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere rise. The IPCC is soft-pedalling on these doomsday scenarios in its most recent reports, because many of them are difficult to quantify and far from certain. But as one scientist put it to me, ‘If you were about to board a plane and the pilot told you there was a one in ten chance of it crashing, would you still take your seat and buckle up for take-off?

Shroff 131–2 extremism, humanity 5 fairtrade 371 brands 32 chocolate 98 coffee 34 community projects 32 cotton 128–30, 134–5 jewellery 245–7 Fairtrade Foundation 32, 103–4 famines, inefficient dealing with 340 farming see also urban farming energy intensive production 102–3 livestock 211 Nigeria 335–6 water usage 341 favelas Brasilia 347 Rio 114–16, 349 women’s power in 114–16 female emancipation Bangladesh 144–5 population growth 369–70 fertility rates Africa 366 Bangladesh 364 China 364 Europe 366–7 global decline 369 Iran 364 Muslim states 366 fertilizer, from sewage 255 fishing depletion of natural stocks 49, 50, 51, 53 fresh-fish auctions 49 Mauritania 50–2, 53–4 poaching 51–2 preference for line 54 Senegal 52–3, 54 ‘sustainable’ 53 trawlers vs pirogues 52 world-wide 49–50 flour stoneground wholemeal 42–4 wheat for 43–4 Fonebak 277 food see also plant foods cooking 103 imports 100–2 ‘food patriotism’, David Cameron 45, 103, 359 food production, and population growth 340 Forest Stewardship Council approved paper 312 tropical hardwoods 175 Forest Trends 170, 175 forests as carbon offsets 309 maintenance 308–9 Foundation for Adolescent Development 154 Fox, Richard, Homegrown 111 Foxconn, mobile phones 271–2 Friends of the Earth 101, 350 Frison, Emile 84 fruit pickers, immigrant 46–7 fuels, greenest 355–7 Gala, coffee roasting 33–4 Gandhi, Mahatma 360 Gap 141, 142 garlic 89 garment workshops Dhaka 138–44 H&M 140 gas domestic use 242 power stations 227 Siberia 223–5 storage projects 227 gas power, public transport 345 Gazprom 222–4 UK takeovers by 224 gemstones, finance for corrupt regimes 208–9 genetic modification bananas 88–9 cotton 125, 132–3 genetic resources, plant foods 89–92 ginger, China 58 Girardet, Herbert 239–40 Gladstone aluminium smelting 193–7 ecology 192–3 power station 193, 196–7 glass, recycling 255–6 global footprints comparative 317–18 world-wide 317 global warming CO2 emissions 354–5 threat of 354–5 globalization coffee trading 31 consumption 7–10 gold certificates of origin 247 ethically sourced 245–7 extraction process 18 in history 20–1 hoarding 21–2, 134 origins 15 power of 21–2 prices 19, 21 smuggling 21 South Africa 14–22, 205 gold mining access shafts 14–15 Fanakalo language 17 quartz containing 22 recruitment for 17–18 safety 16–17 smuggling 17 Gold Standard 21 Goodall, Chris, How to Live a Low-Carbon Life 244 Gottmann, Jean 351 gourmet chocolate 99 grain growing, water for 211 green beans food miles issue 111–12 Homegrown 104–6, 108–11 hygiene 107 Machakos 104–13 Marks & Spencer 105, 107, 109 smallholdings 104–6, 109 traceability 107, 112–13 Green Gold 246 greenhouse gases see CO2 emissions; nitrogen oxides Grimsby, fresh-fish auctions 49 Grosvenor, paper reprocessing 257–60 Gujarat Agrocel 129–31 organic cotton 129–32 water supplies 130–1 H&M 140, 142 hafnium 208 Hall, Peter 347, 349 Hall and Woodhouse brewery 37–9 Hammond, Geoff 317 Hanson, Jim 355 Harris, Frances 336 Haupt, Melville 19 heat-island effect 348 Heathrow airport CO2 emissions 235–7 fuel supplies 236 land use efficiency 237–8 noise issues 238 HelpAge International 72 herbs in beers 39 conservation 56 oregano 55–6 sage 57–8 thyme 56 Hewitt, Geoff 119–21 Hewlett-Packard 160, 163, 165 Hickey, Dan 120 Hindu philanthropy 133–4 ‘hobbits’ (Homo floresiensis) 325, 328, 331 extinction 332 Homegrown, green beans 104–6, 108–11 hominids see Homo erectus; Homo floresiensis; Homo sapiens; Neanderthals Homo erectus 325, 327, 331 extinction 332 Homo floresiensis (‘hobbits’) 325, 328, 331 extinction 332 Homo sapiens African evolution 328–9 artistic evolution 330–1 common characteristics 5–6 conspicuous consumption 333 cultural evolution 329–30 ecological footprint 333 future of 372 geographical spread 331–2 ice age survival 332–3 social evolution 330 survival skills 332 urbanization 344 virtual extinction 325, 328–9 volcanic winters 325, 328–30, 331 household waste see also sewage collections 251 food growing on 341 landfill sites 261 Thames barge transport 252–3 transfer stations 251–2 How to Live a Low-Carbon Life, Chris Goodall 244 human rights see also child labour Mauritania 184–5 Uzbekistan 147, 151–2 humanity, extremism 5 Humphries, Rick 193–4, 197–8 Hurn airport 237–8 hydroponics 342 IBM 163, 165 ice ages, Homo sapiens’ survival 332–3 immigrant fruit pickers conditions 46–7 pay 47 imports air miles 101 carbon footprints 101–2 plant foods 100–2 incinerators electricity generation from 261 pollution from 260–1 India Bihar 289 cardamom 58 child labour 124 computer recycling 288–92 cotton 124–5, 129–31, 133–5 Delhi 287–92 gold hoarding 134 Hindu philanthropy 133–4 Maral Overseas 133–4, 133–5, 135–7 Toxics Link 290–1 water shortages 130–1, 133 indium, uses 207 Indonesia palm oil 76–7 rainforest clearances 172–3 innovative enterprises, Tanzania 278–9 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 354–5 International Crisis Group 151 International Institute for Environment and Development 103, 339 International Institute for Tropical Agriculture 95, 335 Iqbal Ahmed see also king prawns business empire 61–2, 68–70 Iran, family sizes 364 iron see also steel extraction 205 Italy, rocket 56, 90 Ivory Coast, cocoa 97 JCPenney 141 jewellery, fairtrade 245–7 Joynson-Hicks, Paul, Phones for Africa 277–8 just-in-time assembly 166 retailing 106 Kazakhstan apples 90–1 chromium 205 Keen, David 209–10 Kenya coffee 27–34 Computers for Schools 297–300 desertification reversals 108, 338–9 farm outputs 338–9 German presence in 34–5 green beans 104–13 Khosa, Veronica, AIDS clinics 73–4 Khulna, king prawn industry 63–4, 67–8 Kilimanjaro coffee 27–30 Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union (KNCU) 30–3 king prawns certification scheme needed 69 fry hatcheries 65–6 introduction to UK 62 landowner threats 64–5 middlemen 66–8 organic farming 64 processing plants 67 Seamark 62, 68 sustainability 69–70 Kinyua, Patrick 106–7 Kirkham, Ruth 40 Klor, Babubhai 131 KNCU (Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union) 30–3 Kombe, Jackson 29–30 Kyoto Protocol air travel 236–7 Australia 198 carbon offsets 304, 311 Ministry of Defence 242 Lagavulin, Islay single malt Scotch 44–5 Lamb, Harriet 103–4 land, multiple functions for 316 landfill sites heavy metals 287 household waste 261 Lea Valley 349 Leach, Matthew 260 Letterewe, Scotland 321–2 Lighthouse bakery 42 line-fishing 54 Lister, John 43–4 livestock farming 211 Lloyd Wright, Frank, Broadacre City 346–7 local food 36–7, 45 Logitech 160–1 London congestion charge 345 greenhouse gases 242 household waste 251–3, 261 Lea Valley 349 materials recycling 255–6 MI6 headquarters 241 public services 241–2 sewage 23–4, 254, 261–3 Wandsworth Prison 241 water ring-main 241 London Wildlife Trust 350 Ma, Cheng Liang 352–3 McDonald’s 79, 102–3 Machakos desertification reversals 338–9 green beans from 104–13 Macharia, John 108–9 Madagascar, vanilla 58–9 Mahesh, Priti 290–1 Makinga, Norman 297–9 Malaysia, palm oil 76–7 malnutrition 340 Mandela, Nelson 320 Mandoli, computer recycling 288–91 Manila abortions 154 contraception 153–5 Foundation for Adolescent Development 154 prostitution 153, 155 manures, changes to natural 335–6 Marakele wildlife park 320 Maral Overseas, cotton 133–4, 135–7 margarine from palm oil 76 from whale oil 75 marine national parks, Banc d’Arguin 50–2 Marks & Spencer Blue Horizon jeans 145 cotton 122, 132, 142, 145 fairtrade coffee 32 fairtrade cotton 128, 134–5 green bean imports 105, 107, 109 materials ‘rucksacks’ 204–5 Mauritania debt slavery 186 fishing 50–4 racial structure 185–6 slavery 184–5 meat production 340 mega-cities 344 absorption of urban centres 351–3 eco-projects 345 environmental footprint 344–5 recycling mantra, necessity for 346 wildlife in 349–50 Melbourne, eco-projects 345 Melgar, Junice 154–5 metals see also aluminium; gold antimony 205 bismuth 207 chromium 205 copper 203, 204 global corporations 203 hafnium 208 indium 207 iron/steel 205 materials ‘rucksacks’ 204–5 mining footprint 203–4 mobile phones 273–5 palladium 207 platinum 205, 207 recycling 210, 256, 288, 290–1, 295 rising demands 206 ruthenium 207–8 tantalum 273–6 terbium 208 tin 205, 276–7 waste ores 204–5 world demand for 202–3 zinc 205 Mgase, Jacob Rumisha 28–9 middlemen traders cocoa 96–7 king prawns 66–8 Milonge, Boniface 264 Milonge, Geoffrey market sales 266–7 mitumba imports 264–5 Urafiki market 267–8 Milton Keynes 347 Ministry of Defence, Kyoto Protocol 242 mitumba Dar es Salaam 264–7 Dubai 266 mobile phones assembly 271–2 Foxconn 271–2 Nokia 271, 272 Phones for Africa 277–8 reuse 277–8 toxic chemicals in 272–5 world-wide usage 270–1 money laundering, International Crisis Group 151 Morocco, phosphates 206 Morris, Tim 37–9 Mortimore, Michael 338 Moshi coffee auctions 31–2 curing plant 33 motherboards 161–4 motor cars catalytic converters 207 and urban design 346–7 Motorola 276 Murray, Craig 147–8 Musili, Tom, Computers for Schools Kenya 297–300 Muslim states, fertility rates 366 Musyoki, Jacob 104–6, 113 National Grid 226–7 natural resources, consumption rates 314–15 Neanderthals 325, 328 extinction 332 and Homo sapiens 329 Nellie, Flower-stall Girl 153, 155, 371 Nestlé cocoa 96 fairtrade coffee 32 New Guinea, tropical hardwoods 170, 171 Nicholson-Lord, David 348 Niemeijer, David 337, 339 Niger, reversing desertification 337 Nigeria, crop/livestock integration 335–6 Nine Dragons, paper recycling 284–5 nitrogen oxides, ozone production 307 NKD 143 Nokia, mobile phones 271, 272, 276 Novelis, aluminium recycling 199–200 Noyabr’sk, oilfields 221–2 nuclear power stations 227, 355–6 waste from 356 nuclear-fusion research reactors, Culham 226 offices, ecological footprints 315 oil Alaska 215–20 Siberia 220–2 Orbost, carbon offsets 305–6 oregano 55–6 organic farming bananas 87 coffee 30 crop/livestock integration 336 king prawns 64 Nigeria 335–6 organic food, air freighted 102 overconsumption 360 Padulosi, Stefano 56, 90–2 Pakistan, cotton 124 palladium, source 207 palm oil 75–8 and biofuels 77 rainforest clearances for 76–7 paper burning 260 Chinese recycling 280–2, 284–5 Forest Stewardship Council approved 312 manufacture 260 recycling 257–60 sustainable sources 312 Papua New Guinea, rainforest clearances 169, 173–5 pathogen risks, urban farming 343 Paul Reinhart 123 peanuts 89–90 Pendolinos 233 people smuggling, to Canary Islands 55 personal footprints 4–5, 242–4, 318 city metabolism 240 pesticides banana diseases 87 cotton 124–5, 130 natural 87, 130 Pethick, John 262 Philippines see Manila Phones for Africa, Tanzania 278 phosphates fertilizers 205–6 Morocco 206 phthalates, mobile phones 273 pineapples 89 pistachios 91 plankton, carbon offsets 310 plant foods see also foods by name air-miles issues 111–12 ancient varieties 89–90 benefits of local 45 carbon footprint 101–2 energy intensive production 102–3 extinctions 84 genetic resources 89–92 mutations 85–6 seasonality 100, 105 UK imports 100–2, 111–12 wild 55–60, 89–90 plastic bottles (PET), recycling 256–7, 282–3 platinum South Africa 205 uses for 207 Plexus, cotton 123 plywood Chinese originated 175–6 from illegal logging 169, 174–5 poaching, fisheries 51–2 pollution imprint of 333 incinerators 260–1 Siberia 221–2 pomegranates, Turkmenistan 91–2 population growth average family size 361, 362 family-planning policies 364–5 female attitudes 365–6 female emancipation 369–70 fertility rates 366–7 and food production 340 limiting 360–1 longevity 362–3 mortality rates 366, 367 potential diminution 363–4 stabilization 368–9 twentieth century 361–2 power stations China 358 coal-fired 228–31, 356 natural gas 227 nuclear 227, 355–6 tidal 355 wave 355 wind 355 Poynton, Scott 175, 176 prawns see king prawns prostitution, Manila 153, 155 Prudhoe Bay 214–20 public services, environmental footprint 241–2 public transport, gas powered 345 publishing, carbon footprint 313 Qiaotou 179 rainforest clearances Borneo 172 consequences 77–8 illegal logging 170–1 Indonesia 172–3 logging concessions 173–4 for palm oil 76–7 Papua New Guinea 170, 173–5 slash-and-burn agriculture 95 for soya beans 78 ‘sustainability’ audits 174 tropical hardwoods 169–70, 175 recycling 10 see also reuse aluminium 199–201, 256, 285–6 centres 255 computers 288–91 domestic 251 economics 210 electronic waste 294–5 ethos 282–4 glass 255–6 metals 210, 256, 288, 290–1, 295 paper 257–60 plastic bottles 256–7 steel 210, 256 textiles 264–9 Rees, William 315 Register, Roger 347 Rehfish, Mark 262 Renner, Michael 209 retailing just-in-time 106 traceability 107 reuse computers 297–300 mobile phones 277–8 Rhine, damaged ecology 321 Rimbunan Hijau, logging concessions 173–4 Rio de Janiero favelas 114–16, 349 Rosinha 114 Rio Tinto, metal mining 203 Rio Tinto Aluminium environmental claims 198 Gladstone 192–4 Tasmania 197 rivers, wildlife in clean 262–3 Rivoli, Pietra 269 Roberts, Tony 299–300 rocket, Italian 56, 90 Rosinha, Women’s Association of 114–16 Roszak, Theodore 368 Royal Swaziland Sugar Corporation 80–1 rubbish see household waste Russia coal exports 229–30 gas 224–5 oil 220–2 Siberia 220–1 ruthenium 207–8 S & A Produce, strawberry pickers 46–8 sage, Albanian 57–8 Sahara, efforts to reverse spread 334 Sainsbury’s 47 Salam, M.

If I only care about warming over the next few years, the figure will be higher than if my perspective is for centuries hence. I am sorry to complicate matters so. But when we are being sold offset packages like cans of beans, it is wise to know a bit about what’s in the tin. Most scientists agree that the CO2 emissions from an aircraft flight need to be multiplied by some figure to give a reasonable estimate of the warming effect of all the emissions. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says the best estimate, based on a 100-year time horizon, is that the warming effect of emissions from aircraft is 2.7 times the effect of CO2 alone. Atmosfair multiplies CO2 emissions by three, Climate Care multiplies by two and CarbonNeutral simply calculates CO2 with no allowance for other gases. That explains some of the discrepancy between the calculators for my Brisbane trip, but not all of it.


Global Catastrophic Risks by Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Cirkovic

affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, anthropic principle, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, availability heuristic, Bill Joy: nanobots, Black Swan, carbon-based life, cognitive bias, complexity theory, computer age, coronavirus, corporate governance, cosmic microwave background, cosmological constant, cosmological principle, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, death of newspapers, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, distributed generation, Doomsday Clock, Drosophila, endogenous growth, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, feminist movement, framing effect, friendly AI, Georg Cantor, global pandemic, global village, Gödel, Escher, Bach, hindsight bias, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, Kevin Kelly, Kuiper Belt, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, P = NP, peak oil, phenotype, planetary scale, Ponzi scheme, prediction markets, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reversible computing, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, scientific worldview, Singularitarianism, social intelligence, South China Sea, strong AI, superintelligent machines, supervolcano, technological singularity, technoutopianism, The Coming Technological Singularity, Tunguska event, twin studies, uranium enrichment, Vernor Vinge, War on Poverty, Westphalian system, Y2K

During this period, the concentration of C0 2 in the Earth's atmosphere has increased by approximately 27% from 290 to 370 parts per million (ppm). This level is considerably higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores. This increase in the C0 2 concentration in the atmosphere is widely believed to be anthropogenic in origin, that is, derived from human activities, mainly fossil fuel burning and deforestation. Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) concluded that 'most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations' via the greenhouse effect (the process in which the emission of infrared radiation by the atmosphere warms a planet's surface, such as that of Earth, Mars and especially Venus, which was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1 829) .

Anthropogenic climate change has become the poster child of global threats. Global warming commandeers a disproportionate fraction of the attention given to global risks. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are accumulating in the atmosphere, where they are expected to cause a warming of Earth's climate and a concomitant rise in seawater levels. The most recent report by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( I PCC) , which represents the most authoritative assessment of current scientific opinion, attempts to estimate the increase in global mean temperature that would be expected by the end of this century under the assumption that no efforts at mitigation are made. The final estimate is fraught with uncertainty because of uncertainty about what the default rate of emissions of greenhouse gases will be over the century, uncertainty about the climate sensitivity parameter, and uncertainty about other factors.

.-----+- several models 2 100 All IS92 T : r ; I I I I I I I I I I I l Bars show the 2 1 00 range in 2100 produced by several models Fig. 9.1 The global climate of the twenty-first century will depend on natural changes and the response of the climate system to human activities. Credit: I PCC, 200 1 : Climate Change 2001: Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M . Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Figure 5, p 14. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 200 Global catastrophic risks than positive discount rate to determine the present-value cost of a future climate disaster. Acknowledgement I thank Megan Maloney for her helpful research.


pages: 403 words: 111,119

Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist by Kate Raworth

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, Asian financial crisis, bank run, basic income, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, Buckminster Fuller, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, clean water, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, complexity theory, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, dematerialisation, disruptive innovation, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, full employment, global supply chain, global village, Henri Poincaré, hiring and firing, Howard Zinn, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, land reform, land value tax, Landlord’s Game, loss aversion, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, means of production, megacity, mobile money, Mont Pelerin Society, Myron Scholes, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, Occupy movement, off grid, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, Paul Samuelson, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, price mechanism, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, smart cities, smart meter, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, the map is not the territory, the market place, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, Torches of Freedom, trickle-down economics, ultimatum game, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, Vilfredo Pareto, wikimedia commons

Green, T. (2012) ‘Introductory economics textbooks: what do they teach about sustainability?’, International Journal of Pluralism and Economics Education, 3: 2, pp. 189–223. 22. Daly, H. and Farley, J. (2011) Ecological Economics. Washington: Island Press, p. 16. 23. Daly, H. (1990) ‘Toward some operational principles of sustainable development’, Ecological Economics, 2, pp. 1–6. 24. IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributions of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 25. Putnam, R. (2000) Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 19. 26. Putnam, R. (2000) Bowling Alone, p. 290. 27. ‘Election day will not be enough’: an interview with Howard Zinn, by Lee, J. and Tarleton, J. The Indypendent, 14 November 2008, available at: http://howardzinn.org/election-day-will-not-be-enough-an-interview-with-howard-zinn/ 28.

ICRICT (2015) Declaration of the Independent Commissions for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation. http://www.icrict.org Institute of Mechanical Engineers (2013) Global Food: Waste Not, Want Not. London: Institute of Mechanical Engineers. International Cooperative Alliance (2014) World Cooperative Monitor. Geneva: ICA. International Labour Organisation (2014) Global Wage Report. Geneva: ILO. International Labour Organisation (2015) Global Employment Trends for Youth 2015. Geneva: ILO. IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributions of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Islam, N. (2015) Inequality and Environmental Sustainability. United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs Working Paper no. 145. ST/ESA/2015/DWP/145. Jackson, T. (2009) Prosperity without Growth. London: Earthscan. Jensen, K., Vaish, A. and Schmidt, M. (2014) ‘The emergence of human prosociality: aligning with others through feelings, concerns, and norms’, Frontiers in Psychology 5, p. 822.

In 2014, for instance, they met in Brisbane, Australia, where they discussed global trade, infrastructure, jobs and financial reform, stroked koalas for the cameras, and then rallied behind one overriding ambition. ‘G20 leaders pledge to grow their economies by 2.1%’ trumpeted the global news headlines – adding that this was more ambitious than the 2.0% that they had initially intended to target.1 How did it come to this? The G20’s pledge was announced just days after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that the world faces ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible’ damage from rising greenhouse gas emissions. But the summit’s Australian host, then Prime Minister Tony Abbott, had been determined to stop the meeting’s agenda from being ‘cluttered’ by climate change and other issues that could distract from his top priority of economic growth, otherwise known as GDP growth.2 Measured as the market value of goods and services produced within a nation’s borders in a year, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has long been used as the leading indicator of economic health.


pages: 396 words: 117,897

Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization by Vaclav Smil

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, additive manufacturing, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, British Empire, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, energy transition, Fellow of the Royal Society, global pandemic, Haber-Bosch Process, happiness index / gross national happiness, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, megacity, megastructure, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, post-industrial society, purchasing power parity, recommendation engine, rolodex, X Prize

Intel (2012) The Intel Xeon Phi, http://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/public/us/en/documents/solution-briefs/high-performance-xeon-phi-coprocessor-brief-2.pdf (accessed 23 May 2013). Intel (2013) Intel Timeline: A History of Innovation, http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/history/historic-timeline.html (accessed 23 May 2013). IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007) Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Geneva. IRA (International Rubber Association) (2013) Natural Rubber Statistics, http://www.intrubberassoc.org/v2/ (accessed 23 May 2013). IRGC (International Risk Governance Council) (2013) The Rebound Effect: Implications of Consumer Behaviour for Robust Energy Policies, IRGC, Lausanne, http://www.irgc.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/IRGC_ReboundEffect-FINAL.pdf (accessed 23 May 2013).

Calculations of overall global warming potential – GWP, a relative indicator of the intensity with which specific GHGs absorb the outgoing terrestrial infrared radiation and of the life-time of those gases in the atmosphere – have been the most common component of recent LCAs. All GHGs are scored against CO2 whose GWP value is 1 (IPCC, 2007). Values for the two other leading GHGs are 21 for CH4 and 310 for N2O and the highest equivalents are 23 900 for SF6 (sulfur hexafluoride, used as an insulating medium in electric industry) and 11 900 for C2F6 (perfluoroethane, used in electronic manufacturing). Obviously, omitting or undercounting such emissions would have a huge impact on the final value. GWPs of materials are usually expressed in equivalents of CO2 per unit mass of a material (kg CO2-equiv./kg) but for buildings the values can be prorated per unit area (kg CO2-equiv./m2). Calculations begin with specific emission rates expressed in t CO2/TJ of energy; IPCC default rates are 56.1 for natural gas, 73.3 for crude oil, 94.6 for bituminous coal, and 101.02 for lignite, but actual nationwide or regional values can differ by a few percent for hydrocarbons and by more than 10% for solid fuels, with European lignites ranging from 90.7 to 124.7 t CO2/TJ (Herold, 2003).


pages: 526 words: 160,601

A Generation of Sociopaths: How the Baby Boomers Betrayed America by Bruce Cannon Gibney

1960s counterculture, 2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Bretton Woods, business cycle, buy and hold, carbon footprint, Charles Lindbergh, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, corporate personhood, Corrections Corporation of America, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, ending welfare as we know it, equal pay for equal work, failed state, financial deregulation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Haight Ashbury, Home mortgage interest deduction, Hyperloop, illegal immigration, impulse control, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Kitchen Debate, labor-force participation, Long Term Capital Management, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, mass immigration, mass incarceration, McMansion, medical bankruptcy, Menlo Park, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, obamacare, offshore financial centre, oil shock, operation paperclip, plutocrats, Plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, price stability, quantitative easing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, school choice, secular stagnation, self-driving car, shareholder value, short selling, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, Snapchat, source of truth, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, survivorship bias, TaskRabbit, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, too big to fail, War on Poverty, white picket fence, Whole Earth Catalog, women in the workforce, Y2K, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game

Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 495, Jan. 1988, pp. 113–114. 13. Infra note 14–15; and Betts, Richard A., et al. “When Could Global Warming Reach 4°C?” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, vol. 369, no. 1934, 2011, pp. 67–84. 14. IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013, www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter01_FINAL.pdf (hereinafter “IPCC”), chapter 1 generally, figure 1.9, chapter 13 (separate contribution), and author’s calculations. For more recent and dire predictions, see DeConto, Robert M., and David Pollard. “Contribution of Antarctica to Past and Future Sea-Level Rise.” Nature. vol. 531, 31 Mar. 2016, p. 591; Hansen, James, et al.

The basic principles, however, remained, and all that was required was continued emissions before climate became a real and quantifiable issue. By the 1970s, three switches flipped. First, total energy use greatly increased, per capita and in total (two billion people having been added to the world population). Second, viable alternatives to fossil fuels had emerged. Finally, the problem itself had become clear. The first international body to study warming was not the famous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in 1988. The first was the 1979 World Climate Program, convened partly at the behest of the Carter administration; Congress had also begun looking into the issue around the same time.12 It took seven years from the establishment of the clean air research panel in 1955 until the passage of the first major air quality legislation, so one might have hoped for climate action by, say 1986—a date which unfortunately coincided with a surge in Boomer political power.

Unlike his running mate Clinton, he did not avoid the draft—he served for about six months, near the war’s end, mostly out of harm’s way. The reasons for his volunteering were dubious: He donned the uniform in large part to assist his father’s reelection campaign. * Like all scientists, those of the IPCC are careful in their phrasing and analysis, with politics probably driving them to obscure the implications of their work—they’re really only comfortable predicting bad things around 2081, when their employers will be safely dead. But irreversibility and consequences will probably much come sooner, as the IPCC labors to imply without too much impolitic specificity; the endnotes provide references to more explicit discussions of climate impacts. Dangerous levels/effects could be reached by the 2030s–40s and catastrophic levels/effects by the 2060s–2070s, within the lives of many reading today.


pages: 329 words: 102,469

Free World: America, Europe, and the Surprising Future of the West by Timothy Garton Ash

Albert Einstein, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, BRICs, British Empire, call centre, centre right, clean water, Columbine, continuation of politics by other means, cuban missile crisis, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, Eratosthenes, European colonialism, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, illegal immigration, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, Kickstarter, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, Peace of Westphalia, postnationalism / post nation state, Project for a New American Century, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, Washington Consensus, working poor, working-age population, World Values Survey

Here I follow Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), p. 261. 123. I follow the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, Climate Change 2001, available on http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm. 124. BBC news report, March 5, 2004, citing a report in the journal Science. 125. Munich Re, as reported on http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3308959.stm. 126. World Bank, Entering the 21st Century, p. 100. 127. Quoted in Dinyar Godrej, The No-Nonsense Guide to Climate Change (London: Verso, 2001), p. 90. 128. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, <http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm>, p. 5. 129. Ibid., p. 8. 130. Ibid., p. 9. 131. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2002, p. 30. 132.

On the whole, though, the specialists conclude that the poorer countries will be worst affected by the consequences of climate change. Poorer countries don’t have the money or technology to deal with natural disasters. If the Indian Ocean rises just one meter, Bangladesh will lose half its current rice production.126 But will the ocean rise? That depends on the global temperature. The findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—described by Margaret Thatcher as “an authoritative early-warning system”127—are worth quoting in all their scientific caution. “There is new and stronger evidence,” the panel concludes in its latest report, “that most of the warming observed over the last fifty years is attributable to human activities”128—mainly our increased emissions of greenhouse gases, and, to a lesser degree, our cutting down the forests that reabsorb some of these gases.


pages: 470 words: 148,730

Good Economics for Hard Times: Better Answers to Our Biggest Problems by Abhijit V. Banerjee, Esther Duflo

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, basic income, Bernie Sanders, business cycle, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, charter city, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, energy transition, Erik Brynjolfsson, experimental economics, experimental subject, facts on the ground, fear of failure, financial innovation, George Akerlof, high net worth, immigration reform, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, industrial cluster, industrial robot, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, Jean Tirole, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, land reform, loss aversion, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, non-tariff barriers, obamacare, offshore financial centre, open economy, Paul Samuelson, place-making, price stability, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, shareholder value, short selling, Silicon Valley, smart meter, social graph, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, technology bubble, The Chicago School,