Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

226 results back to index


pages: 358 words: 93,969

Climate Change by Joseph Romm

carbon footprint, Climatic Research Unit, decarbonisation, demand response, disinformation, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, failed state, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), knowledge worker, mass immigration, performance metric, renewable energy transition, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, the scientific method

The central purpose of the resulting United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was to provide the best science to policymakers. In the ensuing years, the science has gotten stronger, in large part because observations around the world confirmed the vast majority of the early predictions made by climate scientists. At the same time, many cornerstone elements of our climate began changing far faster than most scientists had projected. The Arctic began losing sea ice several decades ahead of every single climate model used by the IPCC, which in turn means the Arctic region warmed up even faster than scientists expected.

One of the reasons that there is some confusion in the public discussion of future warming is that many science communicators, including many in the media, focus on just no. 1, the equilibrium or fast-feedback climate sensitivity. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its 2007 Fourth Assessment that the fast-feedback sensitivity is “likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded, but agreement of models with observations is not as good for those values.” Although the majority of studies tend to be in the middle of the range, some have been near the low end and some have been at the higher end. For the 2013 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the IPCC slightly changed the likely range to 1.5°C to 4.5°C.

Because irreversibility is such a unique and consequential fact about climate change, the world’s leading climate scientists (and governments) took extra measures to emphasize the issue in the most recent international assessment of climate science by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—the November 2014 full, final “synthesis” report in its Fifth Assessment all of the scientific and economic literature. In the IPCC’s final “synthesis” report of its Fourth Assessment, issued in 2007, irreversibility was only mentioned two times and there was minimal discussion in the Summary for Policymakers. Seven years later, the “Summary for Policymakers” of the IPCC’s synthesis report mentions “irreversible” 14 times and has extended discussions of exactly what it means and why it matters.


Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All by Michael Shellenberger

Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, Bernie Sanders, Bob Geldof, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, clean water, Corn Laws, coronavirus, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, disinformation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, energy transition, failed state, Garrett Hardin, Gary Taubes, global value chain, Google Earth, hydraulic fracturing, index fund, Indoor air pollution, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, land tenure, Live Aid, LNG terminal, long peace, manufacturing employment, mass immigration, meta-analysis, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, Potemkin village, purchasing power parity, Ralph Nader, renewable energy transition, Steven Pinker, supervolcano, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, trade route, Tragedy of the Commons, union organizing, WikiLeaks, Y2K

., 213–14 Gorillas, 68–70, 72–75, 76, 79, 281–82, 395n Goulding, Ellie, ix Gourmet (magazine), 132 Government Accountability Office (GAO), 218 Grandin, Temple, 134, 136–37, 138, 144 Grand Inga Dam, 70–71, 84, 245–46, 276, 386n Grass-fed cattle, 130–31 Great African War, 7 Great Ape Program, 74, 77 Great Escape, 92–95 Great Pacific Garbage Patch, 48 Greenhouse gas emissions, 2, 21, 24, 43, 60–61, 128, 130, 193, 253–54 “Greening,” 32–33 Green New Deal, 3–5, 154, 176, 187, 217, 267 Green Nuclear Deal, 278 Greenpeace, 86, 108, 113, 163, 226, 248 Greenpeace Brazil, 31–32, 38–41 Green utopianism, 267 Grijalva, Raúl, 257–59 Habitat conservation, 68 Haidt, Jonathan, 264 Haiti, 15 Hall, Craig, 202 Hallam, Roger, 10, 11, 22 Halliburton, 205, 219 H&M, 85, 102, 105 Hanno the Navigator, 72 “Hansel and Gretel,” 37 Hansen, James, 181 Hardin, Garrett, 236–37 Harris, Kamala, 216 Harvard University, 93–96, 104, 139, 225, 250, 252, 261 Hawksbill sea turtles, 52–53 Heal, Geoffrey, 88 Heart disease, 132–33 Heartland Institute, 206 Heidegger, Martin, 187 Heritage Foundation, 206 Hetch Hetchy Project, 386n High-fat diets, 131–33, 140 High-yield farming, 6, 91–92 Hillary, Edmund, 155 Hinkley Point C Nuclear Plant, 146 Hitler, Adolf, 233 Hohenkammer Statement, 13–14 Holdren, John, 239–40, 242, 243, 258 Hole in the World, A (Rhodes), 269–70 Hollywood, 2, 7, 27, 162, 164, 165, 222 Homosexuality, 95 Hoover Dam, 84 Höppe, Peter, 13 Human evolution, 133–34 Human-wildlife conflicts, 17–18, 74–75 Hunter-gatherers, 36–37, 134 Hurricane Katrina, 14 Hurricanes, 14–15 Hurricane Sandy, 16 Hyatt, John Wesley, 54, 55 Hydraulic fracturing (fracking), 117–20, 123, 124 Hydroelectricity, 177, 179–80, 228–29, 238 in Congo, 70–71, 82, 83–84, 245–46, 276 power density and, 100, 102–3, 191–92, 386n Hydrogenation, 112 Hypocrisy, 201–4, 222–24, 246–47 Ice sheets, 2, 3, 25, 262 I’ll Take My Stand (Ransom), 234 Impossible Burger, 135 Inconvenient Truth, An (documentary), 217 India author’s visit, 247–49 population control, 235–36, 237 sustainable development in, 247–49 India Great Famine of 1876–1878, 232 Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, 15 Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant, 284 India-Pakistan relations, 173 Indonesia, 88–89, 92–93, 96–97, 277 Indonesia oil, 211–12 Industrial Revolution, 95–96, 227 Infrastructure, 64, 225–26, 247 power of electricity, 226–29 Inga dam, 70–71, 84, 245–46, 276, 386n Insect die-off, 195–96 Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, 195 Intensive farming, 38, 39, 42–43, 130–31, 135–36, 139 InterAcademy Council, 255–56 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 114, 284–85 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, xiii, 1–6, 10, 11–12, 14, 15–16, 23, 30, 126–27, 128, 244, 252, 253–57 Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), 65–66, 67, 79 International Energy Agency (IEA), 26 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 114–15, 252 International Rivers, 245–46 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 57, 59, 67, 76 International Whaling Commission (IWC), 113 Inuits, 109 “Invasive species,” 66 Invenergy, 207 IPCC.

., “My Unhappy Life as a Climate Heretic,” Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2016, https://www.wsj.com. 76. Christopher B. Field, Vicente Barros, Thomas F. Stocker et al., eds., Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/SREX_Full_Report-1.pdf, 9. 77. Roger Pielke, Jr., The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell You About Global Warming, 175. 78. Roger Pielke, Jr., “Disasters Cost More than Ever—but Not Because of Climate Change,” FiveThirtyEight, March 19, 2014, https://fivethirtyeight.com. 79.

Just below the bold headline was a photograph of a six-year-old boy playing with a dead animal’s bones.1 Said another headline in The Washington Post on the very same day: “The World Has Just Over a Decade to Get Climate Change Under Control, U.N. Scientists Say.”2 Those stories in The New York Times, The Washington Post, and other media outlets around the world were based on a special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is a United Nations body of 195 scientists and other members from around the globe responsible for assessing science related to climate change. Two more IPCC reports would follow in 2019, both of which warned of similarly dire consequences: worsening natural disasters, sea-level rise, desertification, and land degradation. Moderate warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius would cause “long-lasting or irreversible” harm, they said, and climate change might devastate food production and landscapes.


pages: 391 words: 99,963

The Weather of the Future by Heidi Cullen

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, air freight, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, availability heuristic, back-to-the-land, bank run, California gold rush, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, energy security, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Kickstarter, mass immigration, megacity, millennium bug, out of africa, Silicon Valley, smart cities, trade route, urban planning, Y2K

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): its Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), a prominent climate modeling center in Princeton, New Jersey. Few people understand the complexity of rainfall in the Sahel better than Held. A member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Held served as a lead author of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report chapter on regional climate projections. The IPCC’s regional projections use fourteen state-of-the-art climate models to provide a glimpse into the future. The GFDL climate model is one of the best in the world. And if you believe this model’s projections for the Sahel, you’ll be very worried about the future.

And the data spoke for itself,” Rahman says. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the scientific group responsible for building the data and models that convinced Rahman, has issued a very strong statement about the changes that are taking place in Bangladesh. Temperatures in Bangladesh have already increased. The Fourth Assessment report indicates an increasing trend of about 1.8°F in May and 0.9°F in November during the fourteen-year period from 1985 to 1998. Annual average temperature in South Asia (5°N to 30°N, 65°E to 100°E) is projected to increase 3.2°F by 2050 and 5.6°F by 2100, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

More than a century later, the estimates from state-of-the-art climate models doing the same calculations to determine the increase in temperature due to a doubling of the CO2 concentration show that the calculation by Arrhenius was in the right ballpark. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesized the results from eighteen climate models used by groups around the world to estimate climate sensitivity and its uncertainty. They estimated that a doubling of CO2 would lead to an increase in global average temperature of about 5.4°F, with an uncertainty spanning the range from about 3.6°F to 8.1°F.


pages: 417 words: 109,367

The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, business cycle, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, disinformation, disruptive innovation, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Garrett Hardin, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, Peter Calthorpe, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, Tragedy of the Commons, two and twenty, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve

See International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Iler, Stuart income increase climate adaptation and climate mitigation and fertility rate decline and intergenerational equity and open-access social orders and trend overview India biotech crops in climate change negotiations with farmer suicide in fertility rate and life expectancy in Green Revolution in oil consumption patterns for Orissa cyclone Industrial Revolution industrialization commodity super-cycles and fertility rate decline and innovation trial and error in pollution correlation to Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) Inhofe, James innovation cognitive biases against elitist resistance to fertility rate decline and free-market capitalist drive for population projections and positive possibilities with precautionary resistance to trial and error for innovation sectors and types additive manufacturing autonomous vehicles biofuel biotech crops cellular climate geoengineering DDT electric vehicle energy, clean energy efficiency food production Green Revolution lasers metal nanotechnology nuclear power oil pharmaceutical resource efficiency solar power insulin Intellectual Ventures intergenerational equity Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate adaptation on climate mitigation on extinction on natural disasters on natural gas efficiency on ocean acidification on temperature increase on water privatization International Energy Agency (IEA) International Food Policy Research Institute International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) International Monetary Fund International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Ioannidis, John IPCC. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iran ITIF. See Information Technology and Innovation Foundation IUCN.

destruction caused by Superstorm Sandy: Greenpeace, “Hurricane Sandy = Climate Change,” Extreme Weather and Climate Change, 2013. www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/campaigns/global-warming-and-energy/Extreme-Weather-and-Climate-Change/. hurricanes, typhoons, hailstorms, or tornadoes: IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/. economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, November 2014, 16. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf. “there has been little change in drought”: Justin Sheffield, Eric F.

These facts are not scientifically in dispute. As Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, the 2013 report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), states: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.” The report adds, “Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.” These findings were restated and bolstered in November 2014 in the IPCC’s Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. The vast majority of climate researchers agree that man-made global warming is now under way.


pages: 257 words: 67,152

The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels by Alex Epstein

addicted to oil, carbon footprint, clean water, glass ceiling, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), LNG terminal, oil shale / tar sands, profit motive, Saturday Night Live, the scientific method

Goklany, “Weather and Safety: The Amazing Decline in Deaths from Extreme Weather in an Era of Global Warming, 1900–2010,” Reason Foundation, Policy Study 393, Sept. 2011, http://reason .org/files/deaths_from_extreme_weather_1900_2010.pdf. 41. Ibid. 42. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “13.3.3.3 Implications of Regime Stringency: Linking Goals, Participation, and Timing,” IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, 2007, www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch13-ens13-3-3-3 .html. 43. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Potential of Renewable Energy Outlined in Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” press release, May 9, 2011, http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/press/content/potential-of-renewable-energy-outlined-report-by-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change. 44. Kirsten Gibson, “Rokita Holds Town Hall in Lebanon.”

Elizabeth Bumiller and Adam Nagourney, “Bush: ‘America Is Addicted to Oil,’” New York Times, Feb. 1, 2006, www.nytimes.com/2006/02/01/world/americas/01iht-state.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0. 5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Potential of Renewable Energy Outlined in Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” press release, Abu Dhabi, May 9, 2011, http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/press/content/potential-of-renewable-energy-outlined-report-by-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change. 6. Justin Gillis and Kenneth Chang, “Scientists Warn of Rising Oceans,” New York Times, May 12, 2014, www.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/science/earth/collapse-of-parts-of-west-antarctica-ice-sheet-has-begun-scientists-say.html?

Bush was the person who popularized the expression “addicted to oil.”4 The debate over our addiction to fossil fuels is usually over how dangerous the addiction is and how quickly we can get rid of it—not whether we have one. And the most prominent groups say we must get rid of it very quickly. For years, the Nobel Prize–winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has demanded that the United States and other industrialized countries cut carbon dioxide emissions to 20 percent of 1990 levels by 2050—and the United States has joined hundreds of other countries in agreeing to this goal.5 Every day, we hear of new predictions from prestigious experts reinforcing the calls for massive restrictions on fossil fuel use.


pages: 364 words: 101,193

Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Biosphere 2, Climatic Research Unit, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, Garrett Hardin, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Live Aid, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, price stability, South China Sea, supervolcano, Tragedy of the Commons

The scenes lingered in my mind even as the city was emptied and the bedraggled survivors of New Orleans and the wider Gulf region were packed off to temporary shelters in Texas and elsewhere, where half a million still remain at the time of writing: arguably the first climate refugees, displaced permanently from their homes. I kept wondering: where next? What will happen as the world warms bit by bit? With up to six degrees Celsius of global warming on the cards over the next hundred years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), what will happen to our coasts, our towns, our forests, our rivers, our croplands and our mountains? Will we all, as some environmentalists suggest, be reduced to eking out a living from the shattered remains of civilisation in Arctic refuges, or will life go on much as before-if only a little warmer?

In retrospect, this is perhaps surprising: it contained clear evidence that a climate only a degree or so warmer than today could melt enough Greenland ice to drown coastal cities around the globe, cities that are home to tens of millions of people. Nor was it just a one-off: more recent work confirms that Greenland's contribution to the higher sea levels of the Eemian was indeed somewhere between 2 and 5 metres. The 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did conclude that higher temperatures would eventually melt the Greenland ice sheet-but only over centuries to millennia, and very little contribution from Greenland was factored into the twenty-first-century sea level rise projections of between 9 and 88 cm. As warnings go, it wasn't a terribly urgent one: most people have trouble caring about what happens 100 years hence, let alone bothering about whether their distant descendants in the year 3000 might be getting their feet wet.

D. and Billie 184 Hamilton, Dr Gordon 69 Hansen, James 27, 65-6, 67, 70, 71-2, 115, 166 Harappan civilisation 174, 175 Hardin, Garrett 264 Harrison, Gary 76-7 Harvard University 204 Hawaiian 92 Hayward, Dr Alan 110, 111 heat 61, 122-3, 193, 197, 209-10, 231 heatstroke 57-8, 62 heatwaves 6, 186, 197, 202 Alpine 30, 31, 177 Australia 173 Europe 57-63, 150, 178-9, 202 winter 180 Helheim Glacier, Greenland 68, 69 Higgins, Craig 29 Higgins, John 204 High Tide xiii-ix, xv, 46-7, 77, 81 Hilbert, David 33-4 Hill, Robert 108 Himalayas 80, 108, 138, 173 Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove 35-6, 37, 38 Hoerling, Martin 21, 102-3, 104 Holland, Marika 26-7 Holocene 20, 21, 24, 66, 107 Hong Kong 171 housing 183, 272, 276 Houston, Texas 125-8 Howat, Ian 67, 68, 69 Huntingford, Chris 273-4 hurricanes 42-6, 125-8, 129, 146 ancient 219, 229-30 Catarina 42-3 Europe 44-5, 149, 185 Floyd 146 formation 42-6 Galveston 1900 126 hypercanes 230 Katrina xiv, 38, 42, 46, 126, 166 modelling 106 Odessa 126, 127 sea temperature and 126, 229-30 storm surges xiv, 145-9, 165, 182 strong 125-8, 219, 230 Rita 46 Vince 44 Wilma 46 hydroelectricity 17-18, 58, 62, 84-5, 87, 140, 178, 181 hydrogen sulphide 233, 237 hydrological cycle 224 ice ages xvii-xviii, 6, 9, 10, 24, 135 and El Niño 114 modelling 106, 251 ice-albedo feedback 28, 70-1 ice caps 26-7, 64-72, 81, 130-1, 197, 208, 220, 246 ice cores 6, 14, 15-16, 64, 81 ice sheets 64-72, 129, 130, 131, 146, 166, 167-70, 176, 193 ice shelves 168-9 icebergs 68, 113 Iceland 130-1 Inconvenient Truth, An 263 India xxii, 77-80, 135-7, 173 agricultural 78-9, 137, 173 ancient 218 drought 173 Environment Ministry 78 famine 78-9 monsoon 21, 52, 79, 135-7, 173, 209, 219 water table 173 warming 102, 104 Indian Ocean 136 Indonesia xvii, 118-19, 121, 136-7, 206, 211, 276 Indus, River 137-42, 174 Industrial Revolution 112 Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 77 interglacial, Eemian 52, 63-6, 107 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) xiv, xx-xxi, 13, 24, 65, 66, 70, 71, 72, 77, 118, 130, 158, 173, 217, 225, 246, 251, 256 International Energy Agency (IEA) 258 intertropical convergence zone 151, 193 International Rice Research Institute 157 Inuit peoples 76, 77 irrigation 8, 58, 82, 86, 140, 144, 158, 196 Italy 44, 63 Jacobshavn Isbrae glacier, Greenland 68 James Cook University 33 Japan 194 Jequetepeque River 82, 83 jet streams 28 Jones, Brian 63 Jones, Chris 273-4 Joshi, S.


pages: 258 words: 77,601

Everything Under the Sun: Toward a Brighter Future on a Small Blue Planet by Ian Hanington

agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, disinformation, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, Exxon Valdez, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), oil shale / tar sands, stem cell, sustainable-tourism, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, urban planning, urban sprawl

In 2010, government negotiators from around the world met in Busan, South Korea, where they approved the creation of a new global science body to act as an “early warning system” to inform government leaders on major biodiversity declines and to identify what governments must do to reverse these damaging trends. This global biodiversity scientific body is modelled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which, through science, has catalyzed worldwide understanding of and action on global warming. Despite the efforts of huge multinational oil companies to discredit its work, the IPCC has compiled the best available science on the causes and impacts of global warming and charted the most effective ways for us to solve the problem. In doing so, it has ensured that climate change has remained a priority for governments, and it has proven to be an invaluable tool to help the media understand and report on the issue—independent of politics or PR spin.

Science is clear about the threat of climate change WHY DOES THE public often pay more attention to climate-change deniers than climate scientists? Why do denial arguments that have been thoroughly debunked still show up regularly in the media? Some researchers from New York’s Fordham University may have found some answers. David Budescu and his colleagues asked 223 volunteers to read sentences from reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The responses revealed some fundamental misunderstandings about how science works. Science is a process. Scientists gather and compare evidence, then construct hypotheses that “make sense” of the data and suggest further tests of the hypothesis. Other scientists try to find flaws in the hypothesis with their own data or experiments.

(Chappell and Lavalle), 180 food webs, 10, 38 forestry, 23 forests. see also logging: caribou habitat loss and, 23; global warming and, 137–39; habitat loss, 15, 23; management, 183, 215–18; preservation, 109–11; protection, 139–41 fossil-fuel industry, 71–73, 74–76, 131, 153 fossil fuels, 57–58, 116, 160 fracking, 73, 213 fragrances, 206, 207–10 frequency hopping, 98 frogs, 11–14 fruits, 177–79 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, 57, 59 fungus spread, 12–13 The Future Eaters (Flannery), 245 garbage, 41–43 gas pipelines, 74–77 genetically engineered (GE) organisms, 85 genetically modified (GM) foods, 178, 185–87 genetically modified organisms (GMOs), 186–87 genetics, 92, 210–12 genome studies, 210–12 German, energy grid, 61–64 Gisborne, Brian, 174 global cooling, 136 globalization, 26–27, 188, 201, 222 global warming, 13, 116–17, 117–21, 135–40, 141–44, 149–51, 155, 185 Google, 66, 166–68 Gore, Al, 64 government: banking regulations, 81; bluefin tuna fishery, 201; ecosystem-based management, 165–66; public property sale, 74–77; water conservation, 215 Great Bear Rainforest, 16, 28 green, being, 248–51 greenbelts, 113 greenhouse gases, 41–44, 55, 60, 69, 70, 121, 140–41 Greenwood, Charles, 54 Grist.org, 114–15, 180–81 Gulf of Mexico, 57, 70, 72, 76, 172 Gunny (grandson), 225–26 Guujaaw (Haida leader), 28 habitat, 18, 33, 34, 110 habitat loss and degradation, 7, 13, 17–18, 34, 139 Haida Gwaii, 16, 217 Hanke, John, 167 Hansen, James, 120 Harper, Stephen, 58–59, 69, 83–84, 145, 236, 257 harvesting, 7, 182–84 health: cycling and, 47; environment and, 203–5; exercise, 227; genetic diseases, 211; impact from wind power, 65; outdoor activity, 221–23; personal care products, 205–7, 209; staying active, 218–20; tar sands, 70 hemp fibre, 54 Henderson, Hazel, 106 herbicides, 184 Hollywood, 98–100 human activity, 251–53 human-caused, climate change, 130–33, 152 human-caused, global warming, 116, 117, 135–36, 185 human movement, 26–27 hunting, 28–29, 30–32 hydraulic fracturing (fracking), 73, 213 ice melt, 160 In Defense of Food (Pollan), 178 Inhofe, James, 97 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, 21, 160–61, 217 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 11, 38–39, 128–30, 131, 134, 142 International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development, 185–86 International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), 155 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 7, 13, 200 invasive alien species, 7, 25–27 Jackson, Lisa P., 152 Japan, 57–58, 199–200 Kakfwi, Stephen, 24–25 Keever, Marcie, 170 Kent, Peter, 69 Kingsnorth, Paul, 122–24 Klein, Ross, 168 Koch-Exxon-Scaife, 131 Kyoto Protocol, 61, 117, 131, 246 Lamarr, Hedy, 98 Latham, Jonathan, 212 Lavalle, Liliana, 180 Legacy Lecture, 259 LePage, Paul, 96 Levant, Ezra, 69, 70 Lewis, Marlon, 152–53 Lewis, Simon, 134 light, 261–63 local food production, 187–89 “locavorism,” 187–89 logging, 15, 34, 109–10, 138, 141, 184, 247, 257 Loorz, Alec, 229 Louv, Richard, 221 Lubicon Lake Indian Nation, 81–82 macaw, 14–16 Maddow, Rachel, 80 Managing Without Growth: Slower by Design, Not Disaster (Victor), 105, 236 manduvi trees, 14–16 Mann, Michael, 132, 134 Mansbridge, Peter, 257 Massey Energy, 74–75 McClintock, Barbara, 92 McKellar, Danica, 99 McKibben, Bill, 142 Merchants of Doubt (Oreskes and Conway), 150 methane emissions, 41–42 Métis peoples, 23, 182 Michaux, Ernest, 46 microbes, 203–5 milkweed, 20–21 Mills, Dora Anne, 65 mining, 23, 34, 59–61, 115 Monbiot, George, 53, 122–24 Monsanto, 177–78, 184, 185 Moola, Faisal, 184 Müller, Paul, 85 nanotechnology, 85 natural disasters, 251–53 nature: bats last, 244–46; goods and services, 112–14; at home with, 237–39; limits of, 124–26; value of, 103–4, 106 “nature deficit disorder,” 222 Nature of Things, The, 247, 256 New Zealand, 10, 255 Nikiforuk, Andrew, 66–67, 115–16 nitrogen cycle, 244 Northwest Territories, 23, 24, 111 nuclear fuels, 57–58 nuclear power, 58–61, 213, 253 Obama, Barack, 74, 83–84 ocean ecosystem: acidification, 155–57, 162–93; basking sharks, 173–75; beluga whales, 171–73; carbon, 160; caring for, 161–63; “dead zones,” 180; Google, 166–68; humans and, 157–59; marine life extinction, 155–57; plastic waste, 158–59, 162, 172 oil and gas development, 23, 140, 216 oil and gas industry, 74, 76–78 oil drilling, 76–78 oil industry, 11, 62, 67–73 oil spill, Gulf of Mexico, 57, 70, 72, 76, 78–79, 172 oil spills, 76, 78–80 Onstott, Tullis, 85 Ontario, 23–24, 52, 64, 189 Oreskes, Naomi, 131, 150 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 62–63 outdoor activity, 221–23 ozone agreement, 149–51 Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA), 16, 164 packaging, 42 Pauly, Daniel, 197 Peñalosa, Enrique, 48 perceptions, world, 246–48 personal-care products, 205–7 pesticides, 13, 17–18 phosphates, 248–49 phthalates, 206–7 phytoplankton, 151–53 pipelines, 74–77 Pizo, Marco, 14 plants, invasive alien species, 25–27 plastic waste, 41, 42, 158–59, 162, 172 poaching, 35 political change, 173 political discourse, 116–17 Political Economy Research Institute, 50 politicians, rejecting science, 95–98 Pollan, Michael, 178–79 pollinators, 17, 112 pollution, 7, 40–42, 55, 65, 155, 169, 205, 248–49 population growth, 232–34, 238, 244 Portman, Natalie, 98–99, 100 predation, 15, 30 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (journal), 30, 145, 195 Quebec, 23–24 Queen of Green, 260 Queen of the North, 77 reduce, reuse, recycle, 41–42 red-winged blackbirds, 37 regulatory failures, 81–83 Relman, David A., 203 renewable energy, 61–64, 141–44 research, 130–33 resource exploitation, 115–16 River Thames, 25–26 Rogers, Alex, 156 role models, 226–27 Rowland, F.


pages: 692 words: 127,032

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto

affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Berlin Wall, Brownian motion, carbon footprint, Cepheid variable, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, commoditize, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, desegregation, different worldview, disinformation, double helix, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fudge factor, Garrett Hardin, ghettoisation, global pandemic, Harlow Shapley and Heber Curtis, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, sharing economy, smart grid, Solar eclipse in 1919, stem cell, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, University of East Anglia, War on Poverty, white flight, Winter of Discontent, working poor, yellow journalism, zero-sum game

Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Chapter 10.6.2: The Himalayan Glaciers. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Introduction to the Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-intro.pdf.

Chapter 10.6.2: The Himalayan Glaciers. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html. 77. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Introduction to the Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. p. 4. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-intro.pdf. 78. Pearce, F. Flooded Out. New Scientist #2189, June 5, 1999. 79. Koylyakov. V. M., ed.

Dale, 192–93, 196–97 Hall, Wilson, 311 Halpern, Michael, 149 Handler, Philip, 104 Hansen, James, 16 Hardin, Garrett, 247–48, 268 Harris, Sam, 280–81 Hartwig, Robert, 264 Hasnain, Syed, 211 Hayward, Tony, 266 H-bomb, 81, 92, 109 Health care reform and bill, 200, 225 Hedde, Carl, 264 Henry VIII, 45 Hertzsprung, Ejnar, 66 Highway system, 82 Hitchcock, Albert Spear, 60 Hitler, Adolf, 73–74 Hobbes, Thomas, 25, 51, 133 Hockey stick graph, 198–99, 201, 214 Holdren, John, 199–200, 228–29 Holt, Rush, 14–15, 149 Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 224–26, 255 Homosexuality, 290 Hooker telescope, 65–66 Höppe, Peter, 264 Horace, 92 Horowitz, David, 31 Hoyle, Fred, 70 Hubble, Edwin, 61, 65–66, 68, 70–72, 104, 119–20, 309 Hubble, John, 265 Hubble’s Law, 69 Hubble Space Telescope, 71 Hubris, 98, 138 Hughes, Malcolm, 201 Huizenga, Bill, 222 Humason, Milton, 67–71 Hume, David, 52–53, 247, 249, 252 Hurricane Katrina joke, 296–97 Hussein, Saddam, 11 Hydrogen bomb (H-bomb), 81, 92, 109 I Ideas, empowering, 56–57 Id, Jeff, 201 Ignorance, 252 Impetus, concept of, 118–19 Inclusiveness, 126, 238 Inconvenient Truth, An (Gore documentary), 199, 237–38 Individualism, 249–50, 252, 273–74 Inductive reasoning, 44, 67 Indulgences, 42 Inhofe, James, 196, 214–16, 221 Innovation, 57–59 Insurance companies, 263–67 Intellectual flight, 56, 75 Intellectual honesty, 44, 116, 138, 177, 289 ”Intelligent design,” 15, 168–69, 289 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 199, 212–13 Intuitive knowledge, 50, 53 “Invisible hand” theory, 3–4, 87, 301–2 IPCC, 199, 212–13 J Jackson, Nancy, 239–40 James, King, 45 Jefferson, Thomas, 3, 34, 37, 46–49, 51–53, 57, 59, 87, 293–94 Johnson, Lyndon B., 96, 226–27 Jones, John, 173 Jones, Phil, 201–3, 215 Judeo-Christian ethic, 14–15 Just world belief, 282–84 K Kadanoff, Leo, 148–49 Kamen, Dean, 287, 294 Kant, Immanuel, 107 Keeling, Charles, 188–89 Keeling curve, 188, 230–31 Kempthorne, Dirk, 196–97 Kennedy, John F., 93–96, 98 Kennedy, Robert F.


pages: 370 words: 102,823

Rethinking Capitalism: Economics and Policy for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth by Michael Jacobs, Mariana Mazzucato

balance sheet recession, banking crisis, basic income, Bear Stearns, Bernie Sanders, Bretton Woods, business climate, business cycle, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, collaborative economy, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Detroit bankruptcy, double entry bookkeeping, Elon Musk, endogenous growth, energy security, eurozone crisis, factory automation, facts on the ground, fiat currency, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial intermediation, forward guidance, full employment, G4S, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, investor state dispute settlement, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, Modern Monetary Theory, Money creation, Mont Pelerin Society, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, new economy, non-tariff barriers, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, Post-Keynesian economics, price stability, private sector deleveraging, quantitative easing, QWERTY keyboard, railway mania, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, the built environment, The Great Moderation, The Spirit Level, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, total factor productivity, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, universal basic income, very high income

., ‘Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet’, Science, vol. 347, no. 6223, 13 February 2015, http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855 (accessed 12 April 2016). 32 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ (accessed 12 April 2016). 33 The first assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was published in 1990. See https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_first_assessment_1990_wg1.shtml (accessed 12 April 2016). 34 T. O. Wiedmann et al., ‘The material footprint of nations’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of America, vol. 112, no. 20, 2015, pp. 6271–6, http://doi:10.1073/pnas.1220362110 (accessed 12 April 2016). 35 There is a lively debate among monetary theorists over whether governments, as opposed to central banks, do in practice create new money through government spending, or whether they have to acquire bank-credit money through taxation or borrowing prior to government spending.

Notes 1 World Meteorological Organisation, Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, no. 11, 9 November 2015, http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/ghg-bulletin_11_en.pdf (accessed 14 April 2016). 2 IPCC, ‘Summary for policymakers’, in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ (accessed 14 April 2016). 3 Ibid. 4 Ibid. 5 Dietz and Stern show that accounting for the endogeneity of growth leads to a much stronger case for climate policy action than indicated in standard economic models.

Unless stronger action is taken to curb and reverse rising emissions—not just of carbon dioxide, but also of methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—the world is with high probability heading for warming beyond 2°C. On current trends, the temperature rise could exceed 4°C by the end of the century.2 The economic impacts of warming above 2°C would be profound. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has listed the likely impacts. These include a higher incidence of extreme weather events (such as flooding, storm surges and droughts), leading to the risk of a breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services, particularly in coastal regions and cities; a heightened risk of food insecurity and breakdown of food systems resulting from changes in rainfall and reduced agricultural productivity; increased ill health and mortality from extreme heat events and food- and water-borne diseases; greater risks of displacement of peoples and conflict; and faster loss of terrestrial and marine ecosystems and species.


pages: 292 words: 92,588

The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking Cities, and the Remaking of the Civilized World by Jeff Goodell

Airbnb, carbon footprint, centre right, clean water, creative destruction, desegregation, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, failed state, fixed income, Frank Gehry, global pandemic, Google Earth, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), megacity, Murano, Venice glass, New Urbanism, Pearl River Delta, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, urban planning, urban renewal, wikimedia commons

Clark was one of the lead authors on the sea-level rise section of the fifth (and most recent) report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was published in 2013—too soon for studies that explored the big melt in Greenland the year before to be included, as well as more recent studies that highlighted the fragility of West Antarctic glaciers. As a result, as soon as it was published, the 2013 IPCC report was already out of date. This matters a lot, because the IPCC reports are important documents, providing the scientific basis for global climate agreements and coastal planning around the world. The 2013 IPCC report, which projected a high end of possible sea-level rise of about 3 feet 2 inches, was particularly important, because it was the scientific basis for the 2015 climate treaty negotiations in Paris, which were viewed by many politicians and activists as the last good shot to get a meaningful global agreement to reduce carbon pollution.

Nature 517, no. 7535 (2015), 481. 7. eight feet by 2100: The estimated sea-level rise for 2100 in the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is twenty-six to ninety-eight centimeters (about one foot to three feet). But this does not include contributions from marine-based ice sheets in Antarctica, in part because, at the time the IPCC report was finalized, there was not enough confidence in scientists’ understanding of the dynamics of these ice sheets to make any sound projections. (New research published since the IPCC report was finalized has resolved some of that uncertainty.) See John Church and Peter Clark et al.

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ In 2017, the US’s National Oceanic Atmospheric Association did its own evaluation of future sea-level rise, which included more recent papers on ice dynamics on main Antarctica. Not surprisingly, the NOAA paper comes up with bigger numbers than did the IPCC, suggesting that we could see between 30 centimeters and 2.5 meters of sea-level rise by 2100 (one foot to more than eight feet).


pages: 421 words: 120,332

The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith

Bretton Woods, BRICs, business cycle, clean water, Climategate, colonial rule, deglobalization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, flex fuel, G4S, global supply chain, Google Earth, guest worker program, Hans Island, hydrogen economy, ice-free Arctic, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, land tenure, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, standardized shipping container, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, Tragedy of the Commons, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Y2K

For the latest data, see http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/. The 2007 IPCC SRES B1, A1T, B2, A1B, A2, and A1FI illustrative marker scenarios are about 600, 700, 800, 850, 1,250, and 1,550 ppm, by century’s end respectively, with different scenarios reflecting different assumptions about controlling carbon emissions. Such numbers are two to five times preindustrial levels. IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report, Table 3.1. (Full reference IPCC Fourth Assessment Report [AR4], Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writing Team, R.

Page 126, 128: Climate model projections reprinted courtesy IPCC AR4 (see endnote 277 for full reference). Climate-change projection maps presented in Chapter Five were modified by permission of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.8, Cambridge University Press. Please note that the modifications made to these maps (“optimistic,” “moderate,” “pessimistic”) are for the purposes of this book only, and are not suggested or used by the IPCC. Pages 158-159: Maps by author using 2006 shipping data from AMSA, 2009 (see endnote 362).

Yet even after this smoothing process, we still find a geographically uneven pattern of warming. For map source see next endnote. 277 IPCC AR4, Figure 10.8, Chapter 10, p. 766 (Full citation: G. A. Meehl et al., Chapter 10, “Global Climate Projections,” in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H. L. Miller, eds., Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007). See Chapter 1 for more on the IPCC Assessment Reports. 278 These outcomes are called SRES scenarios, of which three are shown here (i.e., each row is a different SRES scenario).


pages: 513 words: 152,381

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity by Toby Ord

3D printing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, availability heuristic, Columbian Exchange, computer vision, cosmological constant, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth, delayed gratification, demographic transition, Doomsday Clock, Drosophila, effective altruism, Elon Musk, Ernest Rutherford, global pandemic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Norbert Wiener, nuclear winter, p-value, Peter Singer: altruism, planetary scale, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Stanislav Petrov, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supervolcano, survivorship bias, the scientific method, Tragedy of the Commons, uranium enrichment

“Information from Paleoclimate Archives,” in T. F. Stocker, et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 383–464). Cambridge University Press. Mastrandrea, M., et al. (2010). “Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties.” IPCC. May, R. M. (1997). “The Dimensions of Life on Earth,” in P. H. Raven (ed.), Nature and Human Society: The Quest for a Sustainable World. National Academies Press. McCarthy, J., Minsky, M.

There are two potential amplifying feedbacks that are particularly concerning: the melting arctic permafrost and the release of methane from the deep ocean. In each case, warming would lead to additional carbon emissions, and each source contains more carbon than all fossil fuel emissions so far. They thus have the potential to dramatically alter the total warming. And neither has been incorporated into the main IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) warming estimates, so any warming would come on top of the warming we are currently bracing for. The arctic permafrost is a layer of frozen rock and soil covering more than 12 million square kilometers of land and ocean floor.63 It contains over twice as much carbon as all anthropogenic emissions so far, trapped in the form of peat and methane.64 Scientists are confident that over the coming centuries it will partly melt, release carbon and thus further warm the atmosphere.

“Ice Cream Market: Global Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and Forecast 2019–2024.” IMARC. Imperiale, M. J., and Hanna, M. G. (2012). “Biosafety Considerations of Mammalian-Transmissible H5N1 Influenza.” MBio, 3(2). IPCC (2014). “Summary for Policymakers,” in C. B. Field, et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1–32). Cambridge University Press. Jamison, D. T., et al. (2018). “Universal Health Coverage and Intersectoral Action for Health: Key Messages from Disease Control Priorities,” 3rd ed.


Because We Say So by Noam Chomsky

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Legislative Exchange Council, Chelsea Manning, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Garrett Hardin, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Julian Assange, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, Powell Memorandum, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Slavoj Žižek, Stanislav Petrov, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, Tragedy of the Commons, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks

Emissions “jumped by the biggest amount on record,” the Associated Press reported, meaning that “levels of greenhouse gases are higher than the worst-case scenario” anticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. John Reilly, co-director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) program on climate change, told the Associated Press that scientists have generally found the IPCC predictions to be too conservative—unlike the fringe of denialists who gain public attention. Reilly reported that the IPCC’s worst-case scenario was about in the middle of the MIT scientists’ estimates of likely outcomes. As these ominous reports were released, the FINANCIAL TIMES devoted a full page to the optimistic expectations that the U.S. might become energy-independent for a century with new technology for extracting North American fossil fuels.

Of course, all of this is dressed up in rhetoric about teaching critical thinking—a fine idea, no doubt, but it’s easy to think up far better examples than an issue that threatens our survival and has been selected because of its importance in terms of corporate profits. Media reports commonly present a controversy between two sides on climate change. One side consists of the overwhelming majority of scientists, the world’s major national academies of science, the professional science journals and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They agree that global warming is taking place, that there is a substantial human component, that the situation is serious and perhaps dire, and that very soon, maybe within decades, the world might reach a tipping point where the process will escalate sharply and will be irreversible, with severe social and economic effects.

., 138 Grandin, Greg, 124 Grappo, Gary, 131 Great Charter, 31, 51 Greece, 189–190 Greenland, 191 Green Line, 78 Greenwald, Glenn, 42, 173–175 Guangcheng, Chen, 47 Guantánamo Bay, 32, 172, 174 Guatemala, 109–113, 154, 180 Gwadar port, 85 Habeas Corpus Act, 51–52 Halliday, Denis, 189 Hamas, 27, 70, 71, 78, 80, 184–186 Hardin, Garrett, 53 Harrison, Selig, 140 Hass, Amira, 102, 186 Hayden, Michael, 154 Hebron, 185 Heidegger, Martin, 190 Helsinki, 85, 87, 140 Hewlett-Packard, 91 Hezbollah, 190 Hiroshima, 55, 57, 86 Honduras, 154, 180 Hormuz strait, 85 Humboldt, Wilhelm von, 145 Huntington, Samuel P., 136, 158, 175 Hussein, Saddam, 32, 35, 60, 131, 142 India, 25, 33, 35, 45, 57, 60, 84, 90, 141, 192 Indian Olympic Association, 45 Indochina, 30, 170, 172 Indyk, Martin, 128 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 23, 96, 190–191 International Atomic Energy Agency, 65 International Criminal Court, 79 International Energy Agency (IEA), 22–23 International Olympic Committee, 45 Intifada, 72 Iran, 32–36, 35, 56–57, 59–61, 65, 79, 83–87, 139–142, 153, 169, 190 Iraq, 32–34, 154, 169, 172, 177–178, 189–190 ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), 177, 189–190 Israel, 27, 33–36, 57, 59–61, 65–66, 70–74, 77–84, 86, 99–100, 110, 117–118, 125–128, 137, 140–141, 143, 154, 183–187 Israel Defense Forces Southern Command, 77 Istanbul, 119 Italy, 121, 124 Jabari, Ahmed, 79 Jackson, Robert, 177 Japan, 89–91 Jaradat, Arafat, 102 Jarrar, Raed, 178 Jefferson, Thomas, 150–151 Jeju Island, 48–49 Jeong-hyeon, Mun, 48 Jericho area, 126 Jerusalem, 125–127, 126, 190 Jervis, Robert, 136 Jindal, Bobby, 96 Jintao, Hu, 81 John, King, 51, 52 Johnson, 107 Jordan, 77, 125 JSOC, 108 Kaye, David, 136–137 Kazakhstan, 85 Keith Alexander, 158 Keller, Bill, 48 Kennan, George F., 157 Kennedy, John F., 29–30, 55, 56, 131, 170 Kerry, John, 137, 186 Khadr, Omar, 32 Khan Yunis, 73 Khong, Yuen Foong, 170–171 Khrushchev, Nikita, 55, 170 Kinsley, Michael, 111–112 Kirkpatrick, Jeane, 130 Kissinger, Henry, 22, 31, 56–57, 111 Korea, 91 Kornbluh, Peter, 123 Krebs, Ronald R., 27 Kroenig, Matthew, 33 Krosnick, Jon A., 94 Krugman, Paul, 62 Kuperwasser, Yosef, 26 Kuwait, 131 Kyoto Protocol of 1997, 21 Laos, 30–31, 107–108 Latin America, 44, 48, 90, 111–112, 122, 124 Latin American Commission on Drugs and Democracy, 42 Leahy, Sen.


pages: 309 words: 78,361

Plenitude: The New Economics of True Wealth by Juliet B. Schor

Asian financial crisis, big-box store, business climate, business cycle, carbon footprint, cleantech, Community Supported Agriculture, creative destruction, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, deskilling, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, Gini coefficient, global village, IKEA effect, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, knowledge economy, life extension, McMansion, new economy, peak oil, pink-collar, post-industrial society, prediction markets, purchasing power parity, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, sharing economy, Simon Kuznets, single-payer health, smart grid, The Chicago School, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, Yochai Benkler, Zipcar

Modernization and postmodernization: Cultural, economic, and political change in 43 societies. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. ———. 1989. Culture shift in advanced industrial society. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Special report on emissions scenarios. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC Secretariat. Available from http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Fsr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission (accessed July 4, 2009). International Monetary Fund. 2009. Indices of primary commodity prices 1999-2009. Available from http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/table1a.pdf (accessed May 25, 2009).

One reason the conversation reverted to its usual outlines is that macroeconomists, who focus on growth, employment, and the overall economy, have been slow to incorporate ecological data into their worldview. During 2007 and 2008, the same period that the housing and credit markets were collapsing, dramatically bad news was surfacing on the climate front. Developments since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, whose data ended in 2006, have been grim. Arctic sea ice was melting at hitherto unimaginable rates, and oceans were rising at more than double the IPCC report’s maximum possibility. Drought conditions were spreading. World emissions were sharply up in 2007, and in June 2008, James Hansen, NASA’s leading climate scientist, told Congress that the CO2 target “we have been aiming for is a disaster.”

Barnes, Peter. 2001. Who owns the sky? Our common assets and the future of capitalism. Washington, D.C.: Island Press. Bates, Bryson C., Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Shaohong Wu, and Jean P. Palutikof. 2008. Climate change and water: Technical paper of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva: IPCC Secretariat. Available from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tp-climate-change-water.htm (accessed June 1, 2009). Battisti, David S., and Rosamond L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323 (January 9): 240-44. Baudrillard, Jean. 2001.


pages: 523 words: 111,615

The Economics of Enough: How to Run the Economy as if the Future Matters by Diane Coyle

"Robert Solow", accounting loophole / creative accounting, affirmative action, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bonus culture, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, business cycle, call centre, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, different worldview, disintermediation, Edward Glaeser, endogenous growth, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Financial Instability Hypothesis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, Hyman Minsky, If something cannot go on forever, it will stop - Herbert Stein's Law, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, industrial cluster, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, light touch regulation, low skilled workers, market bubble, market design, market fundamentalism, megacity, Network effects, new economy, night-watchman state, Northern Rock, oil shock, Pareto efficiency, principal–agent problem, profit motive, purchasing power parity, railway mania, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, Steven Pinker, The Design of Experiments, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Market for Lemons, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Spirit Level, the strength of weak ties, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, transfer pricing, tulip mania, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, web application, web of trust, winner-take-all economy, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

Yet opinion polls suggest that in most countries the majority of people (albeit a declining majority in several cases) accept that the changing global climate due in large part to the buildup of emissions of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse” gases (GHGs) poses a serious threat to future well-being. The central forecast of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) published in 2007 was for a 0.2 degrees centigrade a decade increase in temperature, with the risks of a bigger rise. The UN’s latest report on climate change forecasts says the chances are increasing that the increase will lie at the upper end of the IPCC’s range of forecasts; and that some events previously expected to occur on a longer-term time horizons are already happening or set to happen far sooner.

., 127–28 Calculus of Consent, The: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy (Buchanan and Tullock), 242 call centers, 131, 133, 161 Cameron, David, 288 capitalism: China and, 234; communism and, 96, 182–83, 209–13, 218, 226, 230, 239–40; community and, 27, 51, 65, 117–18, 137, 141, 152–54; cultural effects of, 25–29, 230–38; current crisis of, 6–9; democracy and, 230–38; Engels on, 14; fairness and, 134, 137, 149; growth and, 268, 275, 290, 293, 297; happiness and, 25–29, 33, 45, 53–54; historical perspective on, 3, 6, 14; institutions and, 240; market failure and, 226–30; Marx on, 14; measurement and, 182; mercantile economy and, 27–28; nutrition and, 10; profit–oriented, 18; Protestant work ethic and, 13–14; protests against, 211–13; rethinking meaning of, 9; social effects of, 25–26; values and, 209–13, 218, 226, 230–32, 235–36; well-being and, 137–39 carbon prices, 70–71 celebrities, 33 charitable giving, 33, 141 Checkpoint Charlie, 147 China, 161, 262, 280; capitalism and, 234; carbon emissions and, 63; changed demographic structure of, 90; convergence and, 122; declining population in, 98; energy use in, 63, 65; global manufacturing and, 149; inequality and, 125–26; Mao and, 10; middle class of, 125–26; as next major power, 94; one–child policy and, 95–96; population growth and, 95–96; purchasing power parity (PPP) and, 306n19; rise in wealth of, 81, 122–23, 125, 212; savings and, 87, 94, 100, 108; wage penalties and, 133; World Bank influence and, 163 cities, 308n29; face-to-face contact and, 165–68; size and, 165–66; structural changes in, 165–70; urban clustering and, 166 City of London, 147, 221 Clemens, Michael, 81 climate change, 5–7, 17, 24, 90, 238; carbon prices and, 70–71; Copenhagen summit and, 62, 64–65, 68, 162, 292; domestic dissent and, 66–71; future and, 75–83; geological history and, 69; global warming and, 57, 64, 66, 68; greenhouse gases and, 23, 29, 35, 59, 61–63, 68, 70–71, 83; Himalayan glaciers and, 66–67; incandescent light bulbs and, 59–60; InterAcademy Council and, 66–67; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and, 59, 66–69, 82, 297; Kyoto Protocol and, 62–64; lack of consensus on, 66–71; Montreal Protocol and, 59; policy dilemma of, 58–62; policy recommendations for, 267, 280, 297; politics and, 62–65; social welfare and, 71–75; technology and, 59–60, 198 Coachella Value Music Festival, 197 Cobb, John, 36 Coca Cola, 150 coherence, 49 Cold War, 93, 112, 147, 209, 213, 239, 252 Collier, Paul, 77–78, 80, 82 Commerzbank, 87 Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, 37–38 communism: Berlin Wall and, 182, 226, 239; capitalism and, 96, 182–83, 209–13, 218, 226, 230, 239–40; Cold War and, 93, 112, 147, 209, 213, 239, 252; fall of, 209–13, 226, 239–40, 252; Iron Curtain and, 183, 239, 252; Leipzig marches and, 239; one-child policy and, 95–96; Velvet Revolution and, 239 community: civic engagement and, 140–41; globalization and, 148–49; intangible assets and, 149–52, 157, 161 (see also trust); public service and, 295; Putnam on, 140–41, 152–54 commuting, 45–47 Company of Strangers, The (Seabright), 148–49, 213–14 comprehensive wealth, 81–82, 202–3, 208, 271–73 consumerism, 22, 34, 45, 138 consumption: conspicuous, 11, 22, 45, 236; consumerism and, 22, 34, 45, 138; cutting, 61; downgrading status of, 11; downshifting and, 11, 55; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; global per capita, 72; of goods and services, 7, 10, 24, 35–36, 40, 82, 99, 161, 188, 191, 198, 214, 218, 228–29, 282; green lifestyle and, 55, 61, 76, 289, 293; growth and, 280, 295; happiness and, 22, 29, 40, 45; hedonic treadmill and, 40; increasing affluence and, 12; institutions and, 254, 263; Kyoto Protocol and, 63–64; measurement and, 181–82, 198; missing markets and, 229; natural resources and, 8–12, 58, 60, 79–82, 102, 112, 181–82; nature and, 58–61, 71–76, 79, 82; posterity and, 86, 104–5, 112–13; reduction of, 105; Slow Movement and, 27; trends in, 138; trilemma of, 13–14, 230–36, 275; values and, 229, 236 convergence, 5, 122 Copenhagen summit, 62, 64–65, 68, 162, 292 Crackberry, 205 Crafts, Nicholas, 156–57 credit cards, 2, 21, 136, 138, 283 Csikszentmilhalyi, Mihaly, 45–49 Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism, The (Bell), 230, 235–36 Czechoslovakia, 239 Daly, Herman, 36 Damon, William, 48 Dasgupta, Partha, 61, 73, 77–78, 80, 82 David, Paul, 156 Dawkins, Richard, 118 debit cards, 2 decentralization, 7, 159, 218, 246, 255, 275, 291 defense budgets, 93 democracy, 2, 8, 16, 312n19; capitalism and, 230–38; culture and, 230–38; fairness and, 141; growth and, 268–69, 285–89, 296–97; institutions and, 242–43, 251–52, 262; nature and, 61, 66, 68; posterity and, 106; trust and, 175; values and, 230–35 Denmark, 125 Dickens, Charles, 131 Diener, Ed, 48, 49 Discourse on the Origin and Basis of Inequality among Men (Rousseau), 114 distribution, 29, 306n22; Asian influence and, 123; bifurcation of social norms and, 231–32; consumerism and, 22, 34, 45, 138; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; fairness and, 115–16, 123–27, 134, 136; food and, 10, 34; of goods and services, 7, 10, 24, 35–36, 40, 82, 99, 161, 188, 191, 198, 214, 218, 228–29, 282; income, 34, 116, 123–27, 134, 278; inequality and, 123 (see also inequality); institutions and, 253; measurement and, 181, 191–99, 202; paradox of prosperity and, 174; policy recommendations for, 276, 278; posterity and, 87, 94; trust and, 151, 171; unequal countries and, 124–30; values and, 226 Dorling, Danny, 224, 307n58, 308n34 Douglas, Michael, 221 downshifting, 11, 55 downsizing, 175, 246, 255 drugs, 44, 46, 137–38, 168–69, 191, 302n47 Easterlin, Richard, 39 Easterlin Paradox, 39–44 eBay, 198 Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity project, The (TEEB), 78–79 economies of scale, 253–58 Economy of Enough, 233; building blocks for, 12–17; first ten steps for, 294–98; growth and, 182; happiness and, 24; institutions and, 250–51, 258, 261–63; living standards and, 13, 65, 78–79, 106, 113, 136, 139, 151, 162, 190, 194, 267; Manifesto of, 18, 267–98; measurement and, 182, 186–88, 201–7; nature and, 59, 84; Ostrom on, 250–51; posterity and, 17, 85–113; values and, 217, 233–34, 238; Western consumers and, 22 (see also consumption) Edinburgh University, 221 efficiency, 2, 7; evidence–based policy and, 233–34; fairness and, 126; Fama hypothesis and, 221–22; happiness and, 9, 29–30, 61; institutions and, 245–46, 254–55, 261; limits to, 13; nature and, 61–62, 69, 82; network effects and, 253, 258; productivity and, 13 (see also productivity); trilemma of, 13–14, 230–36, 275; trust and, 158–59; values and, 210, 215–16, 221–35 Ehrlich, Paul, 70 e-mail, 252, 291 “End of History, The” (Fukuyama), 239 Engels, Friedrich, 14 Enlightenment, 7 Enron, 145 environmentalists.

See also markets goodwill, 150 Google, 195, 291 Gore, Al, 60, 74 governance: definition of, 16; growth and, 270, 275, 288, 292; institutions and, 242, 247, 255–58, 261–62; measurement and, 183, 186; sense of, 18; technology and, 17; trust and, 151, 162–65, 173–77; values and, 211, 217, 238; wider crisis of, 255–58 government: bailouts and, 1, 88, 91, 99–100, 145; communism and, 96, 182–83, 209–13, 218, 226, 230, 239–40; debt and, 3–4, 11, 84–86, 89–94, 98–105, 108, 150, 248, 271, 275, 286–87, 294; decentralization and, 246; defining, 15–16, 269; distrust of, 150, 157, 162, 172, 175–76, 247; failure of, 183, 240–44, 257; fairness and, 121, 123, 131, 136; first ten steps for, 294–98; growing challenge to authority and, 245–46; growth and, 268–72, 275–89, 293–97; happiness and, 22–26, 29–32, 38–40, 43–45, 50–54; higher social spending and, 243–44; influence of over social norms, 280–84; infrastructure spending and, 93; institutions and, 240–63; interest groups and, 242–43, 285; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and, 59, 66–69, 82, 297; intrusive regulatory practices and, 244; market control and, 14–15; measurement and, 182–88, 191, 193, 196, 202–3, 206; nature and, 58–62, 65–71, 82–84; New Public Management and, 245–47; OECD countries and, 4, 11, 38, 52, 60, 68, 87, 93–94, 97–99, 112, 125–26, 160, 171, 201, 212, 243–44, 246, 273–74, 281, 283, 287, 291, 293; online access of, 287–88; as organizing economy, 218–19; police service and, 5, 35, 163, 193, 200, 247; policy and, 2 (see also policy); posterity and, 85–95, 98–113; as shareholder, 88; stimulus packages and, 91, 100–103, 111; values and, 14, 210–11, 215–20, 225–26, 229–30, 234 government debt, 3–4, 84, 150, 248; cradle-to-grave social systems and, 104; credibility and, 101; default on, 110–12; deficit spending and, 101, 203, 287; demographic implosion and, 95–100; Gross on, 287; higher retirement age and, 106–7; importance of, 100–104; increased saving and, 105–6; legacy of, 90–92; less leisure and, 106–7; migration and, 108–9; policy for, 104–12, 271, 275, 286–87, 294; posterity and, 85–86, 90–94, 98–100, 105, 108; productivity improvements and, 107–8; reduced consumption and, 105–6; retirement age and, 98; as social issue, 113; Stein’s Law and, 104; as time bomb, 104 Great Crash, 28 Great Depression, 3, 28, 35, 61, 82, 109, 150, 208, 281 Greece, 3, 260, 276, 287, 295 greed, 248; bankers and, 277–78; fairness and, 129; happiness and, 26, 34, 54; high salaries and, 130, 143–44, 193, 223, 277–78, 286, 296; option pricing theory and, 222; policy recommendations for, 277–79; posterity and, 88; trust and, 150; values and, 221–23 Green, Stephen, 279 greenhouse gases, 23, 29, 35, 59, 61–63, 68, 70–71, 83 green lifestyle, 55, 61, 76, 289, 293 Greenspan, Alan, 129 Gross, Bill, 287 gross domestic product (GDP), 10, 12; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; fairness and, 127; growth and, 270, 274, 281, 294; happiness and, 22–23, 28, 32–42, 51–53; logarithm of, 41–42; measurement and, 41–42, 187–91, 198, 201–8; nature and, 56–60, 75–76, 80–82; policy recommendations for, 270, 274, 281, 294; posterity and, 91–94, 98–99, 103, 108, 111; trust and, 157, 160; values and, 212, 218, 232 Gross National Happiness, 36, 40 growth: antigrowth alternative and, 39–44; capitalism and, 268, 275, 290, 293, 297; Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress and, 37–38; community and, 27, 51, 65, 117–18, 137, 141, 152–54; comprehensive wealth and, 81–82, 202–3, 208, 271–73; consequences of inequality and, 135–36; consumption and, 280, 295; cultural suspicion of capitalist, 26–29; democracy and, 268–69, 285–89, 296–97; downgrading consumption and, 11; fairness and, 114–16, 121, 125, 127, 133–37; governance and, 270, 275, 288, 292; government and, 268–72, 275–89, 293–97; gross domestic product (GDP) and, 270, 274, 281, 294; happiness and, 9–12, 22–29, 32–44, 51–53; increasing affluence and, 12; Industrial Revolution and, 27, 149, 290, 297; of information, 205, 291; innovation and, 201–7, 271–73, 281, 290–92; institutions and, 258, 261, 263; limits to, 13, 190, 231; Manifesto of Enough and, 267–98; measurement and, 181–85, 188–90, 194, 201–5, 208; mercantile economy and, 27–28; morals and, 275–76, 279, 293, 295, 297; nature and, 56–59, 62–66, 69–72, 76, 79–82; new conventional wisdom on, 23–24; paradox of prosperity and, 174; as policy goal, 22; politics and, 33; population, 29, 63, 70, 81, 89, 95–96, 108, 168; posterity and, 90, 95, 97, 99, 102, 105–8, 111; productivity and, 189–90, 194, 199–201, 206–7 (see also productivity); public goods and, 185–86, 190, 199, 211, 229, 249, 261; statistics and, 270–74, 290–94; sustainability and, 240, 244, 248 (see also sustainability); trust and, 152–56, 160, 174; values and, 13, 210–13, 222, 231–36; welfare and, 9–12 Groysberg, Boris, 143 Gutenberg press, 7 Haidt, Jonathan, 45–49, 117 Haldane, Andrew, 174 Hall, Peter, 140–41 Hamilton, Kirk, 81 handcrafting, 11, 55 happiness: absorbing work and, 10, 48–49; anomie and, 48, 51; anxiety and, 1, 25, 47–48, 136–38, 149, 174; capitalism and, 25–29, 33, 45, 53–54; charitable giving and, 33; choice and, 10–11; coherence and, 49; Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress and, 37–38; commuting and, 45–47; conflict in relationships and, 47; consumer electronics and, 36–37; consumption and, 22, 29, 45; as correct guide for life, 29–32; cultural suspicion of growth and, 26–29; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; efficiency and, 9, 29–30, 61; emotional response to, 21; fairness and, 53; formula for, 46; freedom and, 10, 13, 26, 42–44, 50–53; globalization and, 24; government and, 22–26, 29–32, 38–40, 43–45, 50–54; gross domestic product (GDP) and, 22–23, 28, 32–42, 51–53; Gross National Happiness and, 36; growth and, 9–12, 22–29, 32–44, 51–53; health issues and, 24, 33–38, 42–43, 48, 50; Human Development Index (HDI) and, 36; inequality and, 25, 36, 42, 44, 53; innovation and, 37; lack of control and, 47; literacy and, 36; measurement and, 35–39; mercantile economy and, 27–28; morals and, 22, 26, 30, 34, 43, 48–49; more money and, 56; movement of, 10; nature and, 56–59, 75–76, 80–84; new conventional wisdom on, 23–24; noise and, 47; philosophy and, 21, 27, 31–32, 49–50; politics and, 22–30, 33, 43–44, 50–54; productivity and, 27, 38, 42, 51; psychology of, 44–50; religion and, 32–33, 43, 50; sense of flow and, 48–49, 51; shame and, 47; Slow Movement and, 27–28, 205; social engagement and, 10; social welfare and, 25–26, 30–32, 35, 39–42, 50–53; statistics and, 35–42, 51–52; technology and, 24–25, 35–37, 44, 53–54; unemployment and, 56; utiltariansim and, 31–32; volunteering and, 46–49 Happiness: Lessons from a New Science (Layard), 39 Happy Planet Index, 36 Harvard, 100 Hayek, Friedrich von, 215–16 health care, 4–5, 11; fairness and, 137–43; happiness and, 24, 33–38, 42–43, 48, 50; institutions and, 247, 252–53; measurement and, 181, 188–93, 200, 207; Obama administration and, 285; policy reform and, 285, 290, 293; politics and, 269; posterity and, 89, 93–94, 97–99, 103, 106, 111–13; trust and, 172 hedonic treadmill, 40 Henderson, David, 68 Himalayan glaciers, 66–67 hippies, 27 Hirsch, Fred, 190, 213 Hobbes, Thomas, 114 HSBC, 279 Hugo, Victor, 131 human capital, 81, 203–4, 282 Human Development Index (HDI), 36 Hume, David, 120 Hungary, 239 hybrid cars, 61 hyperinflation, 110–11 Idea of Justice, The (Sen), 43 illegal downloading, 196–97 incandescent light bulbs, 59–60 income.


pages: 327 words: 84,627

The Green New Deal: Why the Fossil Fuel Civilization Will Collapse by 2028, and the Bold Economic Plan to Save Life on Earth by Jeremy Rifkin

1919 Motor Transport Corps convoy, 2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, Bernie Sanders, blockchain, borderless world, business cycle, business process, carbon footprint, collective bargaining, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, decarbonisation, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, failed state, ghettoisation, hydrogen economy, impact investing, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, means of production, megacity, Network effects, new economy, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, planetary scale, renewable energy credits, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, Steven Levy, the built environment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, union organizing, urban planning, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

Our scientists tell us that human-induced climate change brought on by the burning of fossil fuels has taken the human race and our fellow species into the sixth mass extinction event of life on Earth. Yet few people alive today are even aware of this emerging reality. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a scientific body of the United Nations, issued a dire warning in October 2018 that global warming emissions are accelerating and that we are on the verge of a series of escalating climatic events, imperiling life on the planet. The IPCC estimated that human activity has caused the temperature to rise 1°C (Celsius) above preindustrial levels and predicted that if it crosses a threshold beyond 1.5°C, it will unleash runaway feedback loops and a cascade of climate-change events that would decimate the Earth’s ecosystems.1 There would be no return to the kind of life we know today.

Many of the themes in the book come from countless conversations over thirty years together that have shaped our common understanding of the world we inhabit and our hopes for the future of humanity and our fellow creatures with whom we share this Earth. NOTES Please note that some of the links referenced throughout this work may no longer be active. INTRODUCTION   1.  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report (Geneva: World Meteorological Organization, 2018), 6.   2.  Edward O. Wilson, “The 8 Million Species We Don’t Know,” New York Times, March 3, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/03/opinion/sunday/species-conservation-extinction.html (accessed February 4, 2019).   3.  

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Livestock and Landscapes, 2012, http://www.fao.org/3/ar591e/ar591e.pdf (accessed March 23, 2019), 1. 55.  Timothy P. Robinson et al., “Mapping the Global Distribution of Livestock,” PLoS ONE 9, no. 5 (2014): 1, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0096084; Susan Solomon et al., AR4 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg1/ (accessed March 24, 2019), 33. 56.  H. Steinfeld et al., Livestock’s Long Shadow (Rome: FAO, 2006), xxi. 57.  Emily S. Cassidy et al., “Redefining Agricultural Yields: From Tonnes to People Nourished per Hectare,” Environmental Research Letters 8, no. 3 (2013): 4, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034015. 58.  


pages: 197 words: 53,831

Investing to Save the Planet: How Your Money Can Make a Difference by Alice Ross

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, barriers to entry, British Empire, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, coronavirus, corporate governance, Covid-19, COVID-19, creative destruction, decarbonisation, diversification, Elon Musk, energy transition, family office, food miles, global pandemic, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, high net worth, hiring and firing, impact investing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jeff Bezos, Lyft, off grid, oil shock, passive investing, Peter Thiel, precision agriculture, risk tolerance, risk/return, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, Tragedy of the Commons, uber lyft

The year the world woke up to climate change Developments since 2015 have hastened the interest in climate change solutions, as global warming has led to volatile weather conditions, economic damage and increasing species extinction. According to analysts at UBS, 2019 was the year the world really woke up to climate change, following a report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the previous year, which set out a stark difference in outcomes for people around the world even in the event of a 2 degrees change versus a 1.5 degrees change. This growing sense that climate change, far from being a niche concern, was the most important problem the world faced thrust it into the mainstream.

And it has associated effects – land-use change and forestry account for a further 6 per cent of emissions, with clearing forests to use for agricultural purposes a big factor in that category. In fact, taking into account other associated activities like storage, transport, packaging, retail, consumption and food waste, the food system accounts for 21–37 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which says that, as a result, agriculture and the food system ‘are key to global climate change responses’. It recommends that more efficient production, transport and processing on the supply side should be combined with modification of food choices and reducing food waste on the demand side.

AB InBev 176 active funds 30, 31, 41, 83, 96, 97, 98, 125 activist investors 69–77, 84–90, 100–101 advertising 77, 79, 80, 151, 202 AGMs (Annual General Meetings) 70–73, 84, 87, 104 agriculture 85, 120, 145–62; alternative food 22, 145–56; farming 22, 156–9; food waste 149, 159–61; greenhouse gas emissions 148–9, 150, 156–8, 159, 160; high-risk investors 162; low-risk investors 161; medium-risk investors 161–2; vegan diet/alternative meat 146, 149–56, 162 air conditioning 18, 38–9, 164, 170–71, 179, 194 alternative investment market (AIM), London 25, 31–2, 142 Amazon (online retailer) 19, 73–4, 157, 197 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy 165 ammonia, green 142–3 Amundi IS Equity Europe Low Carbon fund 63 Angel Academe 155 angel investing 37–9, 43, 155, 156, 160, 162 An Inconvenient Truth (film) 2 Anterra Capital 157, 160 apartheid, South Africa 3, 48, 51–2 Apple 33, 38–9, 91–2, 127 Applied Materials 167 Arctic, energy exploration in 66, 82 As You Sow 83, 104 asset classes see individual asset class name asset managers 11, 12, 58, 74, 88, 89, 90, 95, 119, 168 aviation 18, 22, 99, 129, 140–42, 167, 194, 199 AXA Investment Managers 77, 88, 95 Balk, Josh 146, 153–4 Ballard Power 138 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 6, 84 Bank of England 193 Barclays Bank 48, 73, 75, 182–3, 200 Barry, Michael 45, 46, 51, 55–6, 59, 60 batteries 15, 22, 113, 115–16, 128, 172; battery infrastructure 128; battery swapping 128, 139; charging 22, 113, 128, 130, 139–40, 203; green hydrogen 138; lithium-ion 115–16, 136, 137; role of 136–8 ‘best in class’ companies 7, 10, 92, 100, 134, 161–2, 176 Beyond Carbon 16 Beyond Meat 7, 15, 35, 36, 135, 150, 152–3, 154, 155, 162 Bezos Earth Fund 19 Biffa 174 billionaires, ‘green’ 14–17, 18, 19, 120, 124, 126 biofuels 22, 113, 140–43 biomass 110, 112 Bioy, Hortense 85, 197–8 Birol, Fatih 112, 202–3 BlackRock 14, 25, 26, 88, 89–90, 97, 199 Blood, David 1–2, 54, 135 Bloomberg 15, 104, 133 Bloomberg, Michael 16, 17, 19 Bloomberg New Energy Finance 136, 139 BMO European Equity (BMO Sustainable Opportunities) 11 BMO Responsible Global Equity fund 91–2 BMW 15, 129, 134, 137, 140, 143, 144 BNP Paribas 134, 161, 180, 181 BNY Mellon 177 Bollag, Benjamina 155–6 bonds 20, 26, 31, 32–4, 41, 44, 65, 66, 67; divestment and 65, 66, 67; green bonds 33, 42, 67, 83, 93–6, 195; transition bonds 67 Bond, Simon 67, 94 BP 4, 5, 9, 53, 76, 83, 99–100, 101, 102, 104, 108, 111, 114, 140, 188; net zero emissions by 2050 commitment 76, 79–80, 116, 186, 199; ‘Possibilities Everywhere’ ad campaign 79 Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV) 19, 52, 120, 121–2, 123, 124, 135, 137 Brin, Sergey 18 British American Tobacco (BAT) 54, 54n Brown Advisory Sustainable Growth Fund 197 Bruun, Michael 107, 108, 137 ‘Build Back Better’ slogan x, 201 Burger King 151–2, 153–4 Cambridge University 56–7, 65–7, 74–5; Institute for Sustainability Leadership 56–7 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board 137, 140 Candriam SRI Equity Climate Action fund 95, 165–6, 67 Capital Group 88 capital recycling 66, 67 Carbon Brief 198 carbon dioxide emissions 2, 7, 14, 16, 21, 22, 32, 33, 47, 53, 67, 83, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 95, 99, 102, 108–9, 168, 169, 180, 184, 191, 194, 202, 203; agriculture and 148–9, 150, 156–8, 159–60; carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) 5, 117; carbon-offsets 5, 28, 63, 79, 150, 203; carbon price 187–90; coronavirus lockdown and 71, 109–10, 198, 199; disclosing 98, 103; divestment and 50–52; energy efficiency and 164, 165, 168–9, 172, 173, 175, 176, 177, 178; ‘net zero’ targets 5, 63, 71, 74, 76, 78, 79–80, 116, 126, 169, 176–8, 183, 186, 203; Paris Agreement (2015) and 4–5, 10, 42, 73, 74–5, 76, 78, 109–10, 111, 117, 132, 165, 188, 193; peak in 5, 111–12; scope 1 185–6; scope 2 185–6; scope 3 81, 175, 176, 185–7; transport and 129–34, 140–41, 142, 143 Carbon Tracker 53, 66, 180 Carney, Mark 190, 193–4 Cartier 11–12 CDP (formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project) 80–81, 86, 91, 153, 177, 178, 203 cell-based meat 155–6 Chargemaster 140 charging, battery 22, 113, 128, 130, 139–40, 203 charitable giving/philanthropy 5, 13, 14, 16, 19, 43, 123, 124 Chevron 116–17, 140 China 15, 61, 76, 114, 128–9, 131, 132, 164, 166, 170, 175 Church of England 74 circular economy 22, 163–79 cleantech crash (2007–8) 113–14, 171 Clearwater Fine Foods 142 ClientEarth 79 Climate Action 100+ initiative 76, 78, 83, 86, 105 Climate Bonds Initiative 94 Climate Group 86 Climate Leadership Council 188–9 climate solutions funds 6, 42, 125–6 coal 16, 21, 45, 46, 49, 52, 53, 67, 82, 87, 90, 109, 110–11, 112, 125, 183, 184, 187, 198 Columbia Threadneedle 67, 94 coronavirus pandemic ix–x, 22, 55, 64, 71, 90, 109–10, 112, 131, 132, 137, 138, 141, 151, 158, 168, 174, 175, 189, 196–8, 199–200, 201, 202, 203, 204 corporate bonds 32–3, 94 Cramer, Jim 61 Crop One Holdings 158–9 crowdfunding 43, 118, 119 CSM Energy 82–3 Curtis, Richard 40–41, 201 Deloitte 9, 191 Delta Airlines 79 Devon Energy Corp 194 diesel 183–4, 191 Dimensional Global Sustainable Core Equity 63 Dimon, Jamie 188 disruptive companies 52, 146, 153–4, 157, 171 dividends 31, 54, 54n, 55, 61, 68, 70, 80, 126, 144, 197 divestment 20–21, 22, 32, 45–68, 72, 82, 84, 85, 86, 92, 98, 104, 117, 185; capital recycling 66; economic case for 52–9; emissions reductions and 50–52; growth of movement 45–7; history of movement 47–50; how to invest after you divest 62–5; moral grounds 62; outside of equities 65–8; performance grounds 62; public shaming and 60–61 DNV GL 131, 136 Doerr, John 114 Dong Energy 107–8, 137 Draper Esprit 140 Drax 112 DS Smith 175 DWS 11, 77, 168 DyeCoo 173 early-stage investors 18, 38, 64, 121, 135, 140, 142, 148, 155, 179 EDF Energy 140 Edwards, Jenny 69–72, 73, 77, 84 electricity supply 112, 118, 120, 121, 125, 159, 169–70, 172, 185, 187, 194 electrification of transport 7, 10, 15, 29, 64, 73–4, 76, 113, 120, 127–44, 157, 163, 164, 194, 203; cars 7, 10, 15, 29, 64, 76, 103, 119, 129–30, 132–3, 134, 136, 157, 163, 164; mopeds 22, 127, 128 electrofuels 141 Ellen MacArthur Foundation 172 Emirates Flight Catering, Dubai 158 Energy Action Coalition 118 energy, investing in 11, 16, 35, 42, 80, 107–26, 138, 143, 157, 166, 167–8, 202–3; carbon dioxide emissions and 108–10; clean energy solutions 120–24; cleantech, new dawn for 115–20; cleantech crash (2007–8) 113–14, 171; entrepreneurs/Mosaic 118–20; high-risk investors 126; how to invest in clean energy 124–6; low-risk investors 126; medium-risk investors 126; primary energy consumption 111–12; renewable energy investment, history of 113–14; transitioning away from oil and gas/energy transition 19, 21, 39, 76, 84, 110–13, 123, 140, 194 energy efficiency, investing in 22, 33, 110, 161, 163–79, 183, 203; building and construction sectors 168–70; circular economy and 171–6; high-risk investors 178–9; low-risk investors 178; medium-risk investors 178; next-gen investors 170–71; semiconductor companies 143, 166–7, 178; weight reduction, investing in 167–8; zero emission pledges 176–8 engagement/effecting change 69–106; activist shareholders 69–74, 84–90; disclosure, improving 80–84; fund managers 73–4, 77–80; green bonds 93–6; greenwashing 77–80; passive investing 96–104; pension manager, putting pressure on your 90–93; professional fund managers and 75–7; retail investors/small investors 69–74, 84–90 ENI 117, 191 Environmental Recycling Technologies (ERT) 24–5 environmental score, ESG investing and 9, 10–11 see also ESG (environmental, social and governance) investing EO 139–40 equities 20, 26, 30–32, 33–4, 41, 44, 53, 64, 66, 68, 95, 195 ESG (environmental, social and governance) investing 61, 62, 66, 90, 95, 132–3, 147, 181, 182, 183, 184, 190, 191, 195; coronavirus and/future of 196–200; defined 8–12, 29–30, 44, 190, 195; ETFs 97; passive investor 99–104; pension funds and 92, 93; score and debt 82, 98 ETFs (exchange-traded funds) 30, 96–7, 100–1, 102, 124–5 European Investment Bank 94 European Union 103, 129, 130, 141, 169, 176, 183, 186, 191 ex-fossil fuel funds 42, 62, 63, 68, 85, 106 Extinction Rebellion 13 ExxonMobil 53, 61, 89, 116, 117, 188 family offices 18–19, 122–3, 142, 156, 182 Farmobile 157 fashion 28, 62, 175–6 Fidelity 103 financial advisers 12, 27, 29, 43, 44, 49, 95, 105, 182, 184 Financial Conduct Authority 192 financial crisis (2008) 1, 3–4, 17, 29, 114 Financial Stability Board 58 Fink, Larry 14, 90 Fluor 89 food see agriculture Food Freshness Technology 160 Ford Motors 177 fracking 79 FTSE 100 30, 31, 54, 55, 56, 103, 112, 175; Environmental Opportunities All Share index 56; Global All Cap index 56; TPI Climate Transition Index 74 fuel: aerodynamic systems and 39; alternative/biofuels 22, 53, 111, 113, 140–43; cells 10, 138, 142, 144, 154, 166; aviation and see aviation; fossil see individual fuel type fund managers 10, 11, 12, 43, 49, 60–61, 66–7, 89, 95, 97, 98, 105, 108, 143, 181; activist 13, 14, 30, 73–6, 83, 85, 86, 89, 91; energy efficiency and 166, 167, 168, 172; greenwashing and 10–12, 41, 77–81; passive funds and 96, 97, 98; pensions and 39–40; ‘star’ 96; varying definitions of ESG 102, 103, 104 Gates, Bill 17, 18, 19, 52, 120, 126, 137 Generac 195 Generation Investment Management 2, 135 Georgetown University, Washington DC 45, 46, 51, 55–6, 60 Global Commission on the Economy and Climate 63 Global Reporting Initiative 190 Gogoro 128, 139 Goldman Sachs 1, 1n, 54, 77, 82, 107–8, 119, 137, 181, 189 Gore, Al 2, 135, 202 governance, good 8, 9, 40, 56, 61, 73, 88, 92, 98, 99, 103, 184, 195–6, 197 Government Pension Investment Fund of Japan 74, 93, 98, 180 green economy 33, 56, 203 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 109, 129, 141, 143, 148, 149, 150, 157–8, 160, 173, 187, 199 see also carbon emissions greenwashing 10, 12, 14, 20, 41, 77, 78, 88, 89, 90, 91, 96, 101, 104, 191, 192–3 Growing Underground 158–9 Hampshire College 46 Hampton Creek 146–7 H&M 62, 175 Harari, Yuval Noah 204 Harvard University 51–2, 67 hedge funds 4, 13, 14, 75–6, 80, 89 Hepburn, Cameron 72, 203 Hermes 83 high-voltage direct current (HVDC) 120–21 Higher Steaks 155–6 Hohn, Christopher 13–14, 80, 89 Howard, Andy 189–90 Howarth, Catherine 192–3 HSBC 88, 174, 175, 176 Hy2gen AG 138 hydrogen 113; aviation solutions 18, 142; batteries 138; blue 138; fuel cells 10, 138, 144, 154, 166; trucks/cars 15, 143 hydropower 131, 137 Hyundai 143 IKEA 160, 173 impact investment 43, 123 Impax Asset Management 77, 90, 157, 166, 176, 195 Impax Environmental Markets fund 90, 166, 172, 173, 175 Impossible Foods 15, 150, 152–3 Indigo 157 Ineos 78–9 ING 82 Ingka Group 160 InstaVolt 139–40 institutional investors 7, 9, 13, 18, 21, 31, 34, 67, 75, 76–7, 87–8, 94, 119, 122, 168, 191, 203 Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change (IIGCC) 76–7, 168, 203 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2, 5, 149, 160 internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles 64, 130, 131, 182, 183–4 International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) 143 International Energy Agency (IEA) 111–12, 113, 115, 117, 129, 130, 164, 165, 168, 169, 170, 202 International Maritime Organization, The 143 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 56, 58, 187 Invesco Solar ETF 125 Ireland 46–7, 94, 125 Irena 110, 130, 132 iShares Global Clean Energy ETF 124–5 J.


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Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet by Jeffrey Sachs

agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, British Empire, business process, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, Edward Glaeser, energy security, failed state, Garrett Hardin, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, Haber-Bosch Process, impact investing, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, low skilled workers, mass immigration, microcredit, oil shale / tar sands, old age dependency ratio, peak oil, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, Skype, statistical model, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, unemployed young men, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working-age population

., “Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A New Dataset from 1850,” Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (2006). 87 Stern Review on Climate Change: Nicholas Stern, “The Economics of Climate Change,” The Stern Review (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007). 87 “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Round Assessment. Information available at: http://www.mnp.nl/ipcc/. 88 Polar bears and alpine species: Steven C. Amstrup, Bruce G. Marcot, and David C. Douglas, Forecasting the Range-wide Status of Polar Bears at Selected Times in the 21st Century (Virginia: U.S. Geological Survey Administrative Report, 2007). 88 higher-latitude environments: Carbon fertilization is the hypothesis, somewhat debated, that higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations may “fertilize” crops and raise the productivity of photosynthesis.

., “Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate Change Through Ozone Effects on the Land-Carbon Sink,” Nature, August 16, 2007, pp. 791–94. 94 brilliant analysis by my colleague James Hansen: James Hansen, “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7 (2007): 2287–312. 98 if the hybrid can be plugged: James Kliesch and Therese Langer, Plug-in Hybrids: An Environmental and Economic Performance Outlook, report number T061, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, September 2006; and The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Position Statement Plug-In Electric Hybrid Vehicles, adopted by the board of directors June 15, 2007. 101 This translates roughly: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage.” Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/srccs/index.htm. 103 “Anything but a marginal”: Tommy Dalgaard, “Looking at Biofuels and Bioenergy,” Science 312 (June 23, 2006): 1743. 103 In a study published in 2005: Klaus Lackner and Jeffrey D. Sachs, “A Robust Strategy for Sustainable Energy,” Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, 2005. 107 Both are needed: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Sustainable Development in Africa: Is the Climate Right?

Escaping the Resource Curse. New York: Columbia University Press, 2007. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. Position Statement: Plug-In Electric Hybrid Vehicles. Adopted by the Board of Directors, June 15, 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Fourth Assessment Report, 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch. _____. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, 2006. http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/srccs/index.htm. International Conference on Population and Development, Program of Action. http://www.unfpa.org/icpd/icpd_poa.htm. International Conservation Union for Nature and Natural Resources. 2006 Red List of Threatened Species, 2006. http://www.iucn.org/themes/ssc/redlist2006/redlist2006.htm.


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Stakeholder Capitalism: A Global Economy That Works for Progress, People and Planet by Klaus Schwab, Peter Vanham

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Apple II, Asian financial crisis, Asperger Syndrome, basic income, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, blue-collar work, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business process, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, car-free, carbon footprint, centre right, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, colonial rule, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, Covid-19, COVID-19, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, currency peg, cyber-physical system, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Diane Coyle, don't be evil, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global value chain, global village, Google bus, high net worth, hiring and firing, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, independent contractor, industrial robot, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, labor-force participation, low skilled workers, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, means of production, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mini-job, mittelstand, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, new economy, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, precariat, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, reserve currency, reshoring, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, San Francisco homelessness, self-driving car, shareholder value, Shenzhen special economic zone , Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, TaskRabbit, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the scientific method, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, transfer pricing, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, War on Poverty, We are the 99%, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population, Yom Kippur War, young professional, zero-sum game

See Asian Tigers Fourth Industrial Revolution, 18, 45, 68, 71, 116, 122, 125, 142–145, 161–162, 177, 186, 201, 208, 212, 213, 237, 239 The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Schwab), 116 Foxconn (Taiwan), 59 France Compagnie de Suez join stock company of, 103 First Industrial Revolution spreading to, 131 La France Insoumise populist party of, 81 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) protests of, 86–87, 195 Youth for Climate movement (2017), 86 La France Insoumise (France), 81 The Freelance Isn't Free Law (New York), 243 Freelancers Union (New York), 242–243 Freelancing work, 237–238, 240–243 Freund, Caroline, 138 Frey, Carl, 116, 135 Frick Coke Company, 132 Frick, Henry, 132 Fridays for Climate strikes (2018), 149, 250 Friedman, Milton, 14, 136, 175, 205, 209 Friedrichshafen (Germany), 4–5, 6–7, 8–9, 251 Fukuyama, Francis, 15, 112 “The Future of Employment” study (2013), 116 G G7 countries, social compact breaking down in, 110–111 Gama, Vasco da, 97 Garikipati, Supriya, 224 Gates, Bill, 132 Gazivoda, Tin, 195 GDP (gross domestic product) China's increased total debt–to–GDP ratio, 62 COVID crisis impact on public debt and, 19 description and function of, 9, 24 emerging markets (2002–2019), 64–65fig formula for calculating, 24 New Zealand's COVID-19 response and impact on, 222–223 New Zealand's focus on social issues instead of, 234–236 post-World War II low level of, 105 private sector percentage of China's, 172 Simon Kuznets' warning on progress measured by, 21–25, 34, 46, 53 Singapore (1965–2019), 123–125 stakeholder model going beyond profits and, 189–193 trade globalization measured by percentage of, 16 See also GNI (gross national income); GNP (gross national product) GDP growth declining rates since the 1960s, 25–28 differentiating between global, national, and regional, 27–28 singular focus of policymaking on, 25 as “war-time metric,” 25 Gender pay equity, 243 Gender representation advocacy of, 243–244 Ireland's experiment in, 194 as stakeholder model issue, 188–189 General Data Protection Regulation (European Union), 212 General-purpose technologies (GPTs), 143 Generation Z workers, 240 German reunification, 17, 78 Germany Berlin Wall (1961–1989) dividing, 75–77, 88, 89 Christian–Democrats (CDU) political party of, 78, 79 erosion of the political center in, 80–90 extreme views replacing Volksparteien, 80, 83 female-led government leadership during COVID-19 pandemic in, 224 First Industrial Revolution spreading to, 131 following the First World War, 4 growing populism and polarizing politics (2020) in, 79, 87–88 Hartmann machine works (Chemnitz, Kingdom of Saxony), 103fig integration of East and West, 17, 78 lowering debt burden through economic growth, 31 neo-Nazi elements protesting COVID-19 responses, 87 reconstruction of post-war economy and society, 3, 7–11, 251 social reforms (1880s) in, 133 Social–Democrats (SPD) political party of, 78, 80–81 stakeholder concept adopted in, 174 “Stunde Null” (or “Zero Hour”) [May 8, 1945] ending the war, 5 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig well-managed COVID crisis response in, 79 See also East Germany; West Germany Ghana, 27, 70 Gig workers, 187–188, 237–238, 240–243 Gig Workers Rising (California), 241 Gig worker strike (2019), 187 Gig Workers United (California), 241 The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today (Twain and Warner), 133 Gini coefficient of China/India, 37fig–38, 226 Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum), 189, 190 Global debt population pyramid and repayment of, 30 problem of rising, 28–31 what is included in, 28 Global economic growth ASEAN nations, 63–66, 67fig “the Asian Century,” 70–71fig Chinese economy impacting, 63–66, 70–72 declining productivity growth impact on, 33–34 Elephant Curve of Global Inequality and Growth graph, 137–138fig foundations of the post-war, 4–7 India, 66, 67–69 low GDP growth impact on, 25–28 low-interest rates and low inflation impact on, 31–33 post-World War II expansion of the, 3, 7–11, 251 rising debt impact on, 28–31 the tumultuous 1970s and 1980s, 11–15 Global economic order Davos Manifesto (1973) on new direction for, 13–14, 88, 213 impact of income inequality on the, 36–41 impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the, 108 requirements of a post-COVID world and, 251 SARS–CoV–2 vaccines development and possible “Great Reset” of, 248 understanding the foundations of post-war, 4–7 Global financial crisis (2007–2009), 18, 34, 112–113, 122 Global Footprint Network (GFN), 19, 48fig–49 Global Infrastructure Hub, 32 Globalists, The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism (Slobodian), 181 Globalization adverse effects of, 107, 110–114 current state of, 108–114 description and implications of, 16 early beginnings and spice routes history of, 99–108 economic decline beginning in 2007, 18–19 GDP measure of trade, 16 New York Times op–ed (Schwab) on, 85 as political ideology, 108 reasons for embracing, 114 success stories from Indonesia, 93–99 three conditions required for positive, 109–110 YouGov–Bertelsmann poll (2018) on, 97 Globalization 4.0, 106–108 Globalization conditions balanced political leadership, 109–110 when functioning as social compact, 109, 110–111 when technology is congruent with economic and societal advantages, 110 Globalization history Age of Discovery (15th to 18th century), 100–102 first wave (19th century–1914), 102–105 globalization 4.0, 106–108 lessons learned from, 108–114 second and third wave (20th century), 105–106 Silk Road and spice routes, 99–102 Global population. See Population Global Risks annual reports (WEF), 52 Global Shapers (World Economic Forum), 245, 246 Global Social Mobility index (2020), 43–44 Global Urban Development report, 124 Global warming increasing evidence and actions regarding, 51–52 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [UN], 51 IPCC report (2018) on, 51 Sham Chun River (China) impacted by, 55, 61 World Economic Forum warning (1973) on, 47 See also Climate change; Pollution GNI (gross national income) description of the, 23–24 Kuznets on limitations of the, 24–25, 35 See also GDP (gross domestic product) GNP (gross national product) description of the, 24 Kuznets on limitations of the, 24–25 See also GDP (gross domestic product) GoBusiness app (Singapore), 232 Gojek (Indonesia), 97, 98 Goll, Siegfried, 16 Gonzalez, Lorena, 241 Google (US), 69, 126, 127, 140, 141, 143, 208–209 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 77 Governance environment, social, and governance (ESG) objectives, 193, 204–207, 214–215 New Zealand's response to COVID-19 as effective, 219–224 Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics on principles of, 214 See also Environment, social, and governance (ESG) objectives; Stakeholder government Government debt held by, 29–31 effective response to COVID-19 pandemic by female-led, 224 key tasks of national, 224–228 neo-liberalist, 225 See also Stakeholder government Government debt countries with highest, 30 high-quality vs. low-quality, 29 United States, 30–31 Grab (Singapore), 66, 97, 98, 187, 237 Great Britain.

See Stakeholder capitalism “21st century socialism,” 225 U UAE, 181 Uber (US), 187, 238, 241 Uganda, 70 Uggla, Ane Mærsk Mc-Kinney, 204 Ukrainian gig workers, 240, 243 Ungor, Murat, 222 United Kingdom (UK) Brexit vote (2016) in, 80 erosion of the political center in, 80 First Industrial Revolution (19th century) in the, 56, 71, 108, 116, 119, 130–134 first wave of globalization (19th century–1914), 102–105 Luddites (19th-century England), 115 polarizing labor politics in the, 122–123 stakeholder model driving economic policies (1980s) of, 14 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig wealth inequality turn of the 20th century in, 104 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) [2015], 150 Earth Summit (Rio de Janeiro, 1992), 150 Environmental International Resources Panel, 49 Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), 50 global government role of, 196 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 51, 149 as an international community stakeholder, 178 IPBES report (2019), 51 IPCC global warming report (2018), 51 Migration Agency (IOM), 52 Paris Agreement (2015) framework by the, 150, 165, 182, 183, 189, 198 Sustainable Development Goals, 189, 206, 207, 250 Water agency, 49–50 World Meteorological Organization, 51 United States Black Lives Matter movement in the, 186 comparison of labor approach in Denmark vs., 117–120, 123 dropping voter turnover and social unrest in the, 188 erosion of the political center in, 80 First Industrial Revolution (19th century) in the, 132–134 gig workers making less in the, 238 government debt of the, 30–31 health coverage disparities in the, 43 high cost of health care in the, 227, 231, 232 history of income inequality in the, 34–36, 38–39fig, 88–89 as ill-prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic, 186 Marshall Plan to rebuild European economy by the, 6–7 9/11 terrorist attacks against, 17, 18 Pearl Harbor attack against, 17 polarizing labor politics in the, 122–123 post-war baby boom in, 8 See also California; New York City; US economy Universal basic income (UBI), 239 Universal Postal Union, 197, 198 “The Universal Purpose of a Company in the Fourth Industrial Revolution” (Davos Manifesto 2020), 191–192 University of Chicago (Chicago School), 14, 136, 140 University of Kharkiv, 22 University of Leuven, 243 University of Liverpool, 224 University of Reading, 224 Upwork (US), 237, 240 Urbanization metatrend, 159–160 Urban Radar (US), 163 US Business Roundtable, 250 US dollar currency, 31 US economic policies overly focused on GDP growth, 25 stakeholder model driving 1980s, 14 US economy economic boom (1945–1970s) of the, 8 economic development curve (1920s), 23 Federal Reserve interest rates (2009–2019), 31 See also Big Tech; United States US government bonds, 31 Utomo, William, 94–95, 96, 114 Utomo, Winston, 94–95, 96 V Value creation company aim to generate profits and, 179 environment, social, and governance (ESG) objectives of, 185, 193 Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics to measure stakeholder, 193, 214–215 stakeholder capitalism's appropriate measurement of, 185 stakeholder model beliefs on sharing and, 184–185 The Value of Everything (Mazzucato), 184 Vanderbilt, Cornelius, 132 Venezuela, 225 The Verge, 239 Vestager, Margarethe, 211 Vietnam economy ongoing through COVID crisis, 109 IT and Internet revolution role in expanding economy of, 137 predicted economic growth (2020–2021) in, 65–66 state capitalism model of, 173 tech unicorns of, 66, 67fig Volksparteien (Germany), 80, 83 W Wage “decoupling” practice, 34 Walesa, Lech, 83 Wall Street Journal “Competition is for Losers” editorial (Thiel), 208–209 on lower global GDP growth, 25 on rising global debt (2020), 28 Ward, Barbara, 11 Warner, Charles Dudley, 133 War on Poverty, 135 Warren, Elizabeth, 127, 128 Warsaw Pact, 77 Washington Post, 121, 221 Water resources microplastics pollution of, 50 UN Water agency on state of, 50 Waze app (Israel), 33 Wealth inequality consequences of increasing, 42–43 First Industrial Revolution (19th century) and, 132–134 health, social mobility, and, 41–46 as higher than income inequality, 41 the one percent and, 41–42 United Kingdom turn of the 20th century, 104 World Inequality Lab (WIL) on India and China's, 72–73fig See also Income inequality; Inequalities Wealth Project, 191 Weiszacker, Richard von, 76–77 West Berlin (West Germany), 75–77, 88, 89 West Germany Berlin Wall (1961–1989) dividing East and, 75–77, 88, 89 Marshall Plan to rebuild, 6–7 reconstruction of post-war society and, 8 reunification of East and, 17, 78 ruined post-World War II economy of, 4–5 Wirtschaftswunder (economic miracle) [1945–early 1970s], 8 Works Council Act (1952) of, 10 See also East Germany; Germany West Java entrepreneur story (2012), 93–94 WhatsApp (US), 211 Wheatley, James, 27 Windows Media Player (Microsoft), 139 Wipro [India], 68 Wired magazine, 59, 128, 149, 242 Wirtschaftswunder (German economic miracle) [1945–early 1970s], 8 Wolf, Martin, 62 Women as effective government leaders during COVID-19 pandemic, 224 increased education and labor-force participation of, 9 political issue of gender representation of, 188–189 Women's liberation trends (21st century), 9–10 Wood, Alex, 242 Works Council Act (1952) [Germany], 10 World Bank creation of the, 6 on education levels in Africa and South Asia (2018), 44 GDP measure used by, 24 on Indonesia's prudent economic management, 98 lack of representation evidenced in, 197 World Economic Forum advocating long-term perspective by companies, 250 Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (San Francisco, 2017) of the, 144 CEO Climate Leaders group at the, 167 climate change solutions sought by, 162, 164–165 COVID-19 pandemic accusations against, 87 Davos Manifesto (1973), 13–14, 88, 213 Davos Manifesto (2020), 191–192, 213 European Management Forum forerunner of, 11, 15 facilitating German reunification process, 78 Global Competitiveness Index and Inclusive Development Index of, 189, 190 global membership (1980s) of the, 15 Global Risks annual report by the, 52 Global Shapers network of, 245, 246 Global Social Mobility index (2020), 43–44 on global warming (1973), 47 International Business Council of the, 193, 214, 249 Internet Agenda of the, 246 Jack Ma as “Young Global Leader,” 128 on pension savings gap, 32–33 presentation on societal unrest to, 85–86 Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics initiative, 193, 214–215, 249, 250–251 World Economic Forum Annual Meetings (Davos) Annual Meeting in New York (2002), 17–18 Benioff's comments on need to shift toward stakeholder model, 201 the first European Management Forum (1971), 11, 88 Greta Thunberg's speech (2019) at, 53, 147, 149–150, 168, 250 Marc Benioff's speech on capitalism (2020) during, 164, 211 Net-Zero Challenge invitation to participates in, 162 Peccei's keynote speech (1973) at, 13, 47, 52 as platform for German reunification process (1990), 78 viritual meeting (2020) during COVID-19 pandemic, 250 World Health Organization (WHO) proposed integrating antitrust measures into, 142 on public health care spending, 32 on unsafe air of polluted cities (2019), 72 World Inequality Lab (WIL), 72–73fig World Inequality Report (2018), 38, 138fig World Meteorological Organization, 51 World Trade Organization (WTO) Appellate Judges of the, 197 China's membership in, 18, 59, 64 as an international community stakeholder, 178 World War I ending first wave of globalization, 105 Germany's “Never Again War” rallying cry after, 4 technology as destructive power during, 134 Treat of Versailles (1919) ending, 5–6 World War II division of East and West Germany after end of, 75–76 global economic development following end of, 3, 7–11, 251 low GDP at end of the, 105 Pearl Harbor attack against US, 17 ruinous state of Germany by end of, 4 “Stunde Null” (or “Zero Hour”) [May 8, 1945] ending, 5 tanks and planes technologies during, 134 Wozniak, Steve, 126, 128 Wu, Tim, 126–127, 128, 137, 139, 140, 145 X Xi Jinping, 62, 100, 184 Y Yang, Andrew, 239 Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) protests (France), 86–87, 195 Yom Kippur War, 12 Yoshida Shigeru, 8 YouGov–Bertelsmann globalization poll (2018), 97 Youth for Climate movement (2017) [France], 86 Z Zambia, 64 Zeppelin (German manufacturer), 4 Zermatt (Switzerland), 51–52 ZF (Zeppelin Foundation), 6–9, 16, 18 Zhangjiang hi-tech zone (Shanghai, China), 61 Zhongguancun neighborhood (Beijing, China), 61 ZIP codes, 3 ZTE (China), 55, 60 Zuckerberg, Mark, 128, 212 Zucman, Gabriel, 41, 127 WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT Go to www.wiley.com/go/eula to access Wiley’s ebook EULA.

The UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services (IPBES) concluded in a 2019 report that “nature is declining globally at rates unprecedented in human history,” with species already becoming extinct “at least tens to hundreds of times faster than the average over the past 10 million years.”77 Quoting the research, the Financial Times also wrote that “one million of Earth's estimated 8 million plant and animal species are at risk of extinction.”78 Another specialized UN agency, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued a warning late 2018 that the current path of CO2 emissions would also lead to an unstoppable cycle of global warming—with major disruptions for life on earth—if major reductions weren't achieved by 2030. It said, “Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot would require rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure (including transport and buildings), and industrial systems.”79 But hopes for even that narrow path to a limited global warming of 1.5°C had all but evaporated two years later.


pages: 460 words: 107,454

Stakeholder Capitalism: A Global Economy That Works for Progress, People and Planet by Klaus Schwab

3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Apple II, Asian financial crisis, Asperger Syndrome, basic income, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, blue-collar work, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business process, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, car-free, carbon footprint, centre right, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, colonial rule, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, Covid-19, COVID-19, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, currency peg, cyber-physical system, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Diane Coyle, don't be evil, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, future of work, gender pay gap, gig economy, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global value chain, global village, Google bus, high net worth, hiring and firing, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, independent contractor, industrial robot, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, job automation, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, labor-force participation, low skilled workers, Lyft, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Martin Wolf, means of production, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mini-job, mittelstand, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, new economy, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, precariat, Productivity paradox, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, reserve currency, reshoring, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, San Francisco homelessness, self-driving car, shareholder value, Shenzhen special economic zone , Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, TaskRabbit, The Chicago School, The Future of Employment, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, the scientific method, Tim Cook: Apple, trade route, transfer pricing, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, union organizing, universal basic income, War on Poverty, We are the 99%, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population, Yom Kippur War, young professional, zero-sum game

See Asian Tigers Fourth Industrial Revolution, 18, 45, 68, 71, 116, 122, 125, 142–145, 161–162, 177, 186, 201, 208, 212, 213, 237, 239 The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Schwab), 116 Foxconn (Taiwan), 59 France Compagnie de Suez join stock company of, 103 First Industrial Revolution spreading to, 131 La France Insoumise populist party of, 81 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) protests of, 86–87, 195 Youth for Climate movement (2017), 86 La France Insoumise (France), 81 The Freelance Isn't Free Law (New York), 243 Freelancers Union (New York), 242–243 Freelancing work, 237–238, 240–243 Freund, Caroline, 138 Frey, Carl, 116, 135 Frick Coke Company, 132 Frick, Henry, 132 Fridays for Climate strikes (2018), 149, 250 Friedman, Milton, 14, 136, 175, 205, 209 Friedrichshafen (Germany), 4–5, 6–7, 8–9, 251 Fukuyama, Francis, 15, 112 “The Future of Employment” study (2013), 116 G G7 countries, social compact breaking down in, 110–111 Gama, Vasco da, 97 Garikipati, Supriya, 224 Gates, Bill, 132 Gazivoda, Tin, 195 GDP (gross domestic product) China's increased total debt–to–GDP ratio, 62 COVID crisis impact on public debt and, 19 description and function of, 9, 24 emerging markets (2002–2019), 64–65fig formula for calculating, 24 New Zealand's COVID-19 response and impact on, 222–223 New Zealand's focus on social issues instead of, 234–236 post-World War II low level of, 105 private sector percentage of China's, 172 Simon Kuznets' warning on progress measured by, 21–25, 34, 46, 53 Singapore (1965–2019), 123–125 stakeholder model going beyond profits and, 189–193 trade globalization measured by percentage of, 16 See also GNI (gross national income); GNP (gross national product) GDP growth declining rates since the 1960s, 25–28 differentiating between global, national, and regional, 27–28 singular focus of policymaking on, 25 as “war-time metric,” 25 Gender pay equity, 243 Gender representation advocacy of, 243–244 Ireland's experiment in, 194 as stakeholder model issue, 188–189 General Data Protection Regulation (European Union), 212 General-purpose technologies (GPTs), 143 Generation Z workers, 240 German reunification, 17, 78 Germany Berlin Wall (1961–1989) dividing, 75–77, 88, 89 Christian–Democrats (CDU) political party of, 78, 79 erosion of the political center in, 80–90 extreme views replacing Volksparteien, 80, 83 female-led government leadership during COVID-19 pandemic in, 224 First Industrial Revolution spreading to, 131 following the First World War, 4 growing populism and polarizing politics (2020) in, 79, 87–88 Hartmann machine works (Chemnitz, Kingdom of Saxony), 103fig integration of East and West, 17, 78 lowering debt burden through economic growth, 31 neo-Nazi elements protesting COVID-19 responses, 87 reconstruction of post-war economy and society, 3, 7–11, 251 social reforms (1880s) in, 133 Social–Democrats (SPD) political party of, 78, 80–81 stakeholder concept adopted in, 174 “Stunde Null” (or “Zero Hour”) [May 8, 1945] ending the war, 5 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig well-managed COVID crisis response in, 79 See also East Germany; West Germany Ghana, 27, 70 Gig workers, 187–188, 237–238, 240–243 Gig Workers Rising (California), 241 Gig worker strike (2019), 187 Gig Workers United (California), 241 The Gilded Age: A Tale of Today (Twain and Warner), 133 Gini coefficient of China/India, 37fig–38, 226 Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum), 189, 190 Global debt population pyramid and repayment of, 30 problem of rising, 28–31 what is included in, 28 Global economic growth ASEAN nations, 63–66, 67fig “the Asian Century,” 70–71fig Chinese economy impacting, 63–66, 70–72 declining productivity growth impact on, 33–34 Elephant Curve of Global Inequality and Growth graph, 137–138fig foundations of the post-war, 4–7 India, 66, 67–69 low GDP growth impact on, 25–28 low-interest rates and low inflation impact on, 31–33 post-World War II expansion of the, 3, 7–11, 251 rising debt impact on, 28–31 the tumultuous 1970s and 1980s, 11–15 Global economic order Davos Manifesto (1973) on new direction for, 13–14, 88, 213 impact of income inequality on the, 36–41 impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the, 108 requirements of a post-COVID world and, 251 SARS–CoV–2 vaccines development and possible “Great Reset” of, 248 understanding the foundations of post-war, 4–7 Global financial crisis (2007–2009), 18, 34, 112–113, 122 Global Footprint Network (GFN), 19, 48fig–49 Global Infrastructure Hub, 32 Globalists, The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism (Slobodian), 181 Globalization adverse effects of, 107, 110–114 current state of, 108–114 description and implications of, 16 early beginnings and spice routes history of, 99–108 economic decline beginning in 2007, 18–19 GDP measure of trade, 16 New York Times op–ed (Schwab) on, 85 as political ideology, 108 reasons for embracing, 114 success stories from Indonesia, 93–99 three conditions required for positive, 109–110 YouGov–Bertelsmann poll (2018) on, 97 Globalization 4.0, 106–108 Globalization conditions balanced political leadership, 109–110 when functioning as social compact, 109, 110–111 when technology is congruent with economic and societal advantages, 110 Globalization history Age of Discovery (15th to 18th century), 100–102 first wave (19th century–1914), 102–105 globalization 4.0, 106–108 lessons learned from, 108–114 second and third wave (20th century), 105–106 Silk Road and spice routes, 99–102 Global population. See Population Global Risks annual reports (WEF), 52 Global Shapers (World Economic Forum), 245, 246 Global Social Mobility index (2020), 43–44 Global Urban Development report, 124 Global warming increasing evidence and actions regarding, 51–52 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [UN], 51 IPCC report (2018) on, 51 Sham Chun River (China) impacted by, 55, 61 World Economic Forum warning (1973) on, 47 See also Climate change; Pollution GNI (gross national income) description of the, 23–24 Kuznets on limitations of the, 24–25, 35 See also GDP (gross domestic product) GNP (gross national product) description of the, 24 Kuznets on limitations of the, 24–25 See also GDP (gross domestic product) GoBusiness app (Singapore), 232 Gojek (Indonesia), 97, 98 Goll, Siegfried, 16 Gonzalez, Lorena, 241 Google (US), 69, 126, 127, 140, 141, 143, 208–209 Gorbachev, Mikhail, 77 Governance environment, social, and governance (ESG) objectives, 193, 204–207, 214–215 New Zealand's response to COVID-19 as effective, 219–224 Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics on principles of, 214 See also Environment, social, and governance (ESG) objectives; Stakeholder government Government debt held by, 29–31 effective response to COVID-19 pandemic by female-led, 224 key tasks of national, 224–228 neo-liberalist, 225 See also Stakeholder government Government debt countries with highest, 30 high-quality vs. low-quality, 29 United States, 30–31 Grab (Singapore), 66, 97, 98, 187, 237 Great Britain.

See Stakeholder capitalism “21st century socialism,” 225 U UAE, 181 Uber (US), 187, 238, 241 Uganda, 70 Uggla, Ane Mærsk Mc-Kinney, 204 Ukrainian gig workers, 240, 243 Ungor, Murat, 222 United Kingdom (UK) Brexit vote (2016) in, 80 erosion of the political center in, 80 First Industrial Revolution (19th century) in the, 56, 71, 108, 116, 119, 130–134 first wave of globalization (19th century–1914), 102–105 Luddites (19th-century England), 115 polarizing labor politics in the, 122–123 stakeholder model driving economic policies (1980s) of, 14 vote for right-wing populist parties (2000, 2017–2019), 84fig wealth inequality turn of the 20th century in, 104 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) [2015], 150 Earth Summit (Rio de Janeiro, 1992), 150 Environmental International Resources Panel, 49 Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), 50 global government role of, 196 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 51, 149 as an international community stakeholder, 178 IPBES report (2019), 51 IPCC global warming report (2018), 51 Migration Agency (IOM), 52 Paris Agreement (2015) framework by the, 150, 165, 182, 183, 189, 198 Sustainable Development Goals, 189, 206, 207, 250 Water agency, 49–50 World Meteorological Organization, 51 United States Black Lives Matter movement in the, 186 comparison of labor approach in Denmark vs., 117–120, 123 dropping voter turnover and social unrest in the, 188 erosion of the political center in, 80 First Industrial Revolution (19th century) in the, 132–134 gig workers making less in the, 238 government debt of the, 30–31 health coverage disparities in the, 43 high cost of health care in the, 227, 231, 232 history of income inequality in the, 34–36, 38–39fig, 88–89 as ill-prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic, 186 Marshall Plan to rebuild European economy by the, 6–7 9/11 terrorist attacks against, 17, 18 Pearl Harbor attack against, 17 polarizing labor politics in the, 122–123 post-war baby boom in, 8 See also California; New York City; US economy Universal basic income (UBI), 239 Universal Postal Union, 197, 198 “The Universal Purpose of a Company in the Fourth Industrial Revolution” (Davos Manifesto 2020), 191–192 University of Chicago (Chicago School), 14, 136, 140 University of Kharkiv, 22 University of Leuven, 243 University of Liverpool, 224 University of Reading, 224 Upwork (US), 237, 240 Urbanization metatrend, 159–160 Urban Radar (US), 163 US Business Roundtable, 250 US dollar currency, 31 US economic policies overly focused on GDP growth, 25 stakeholder model driving 1980s, 14 US economy economic boom (1945–1970s) of the, 8 economic development curve (1920s), 23 Federal Reserve interest rates (2009–2019), 31 See also Big Tech; United States US government bonds, 31 Utomo, William, 94–95, 96, 114 Utomo, Winston, 94–95, 96 V Value creation company aim to generate profits and, 179 environment, social, and governance (ESG) objectives of, 185, 193 Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics to measure stakeholder, 193, 214–215 stakeholder capitalism's appropriate measurement of, 185 stakeholder model beliefs on sharing and, 184–185 The Value of Everything (Mazzucato), 184 Vanderbilt, Cornelius, 132 Venezuela, 225 The Verge, 239 Vestager, Margarethe, 211 Vietnam economy ongoing through COVID crisis, 109 IT and Internet revolution role in expanding economy of, 137 predicted economic growth (2020–2021) in, 65–66 state capitalism model of, 173 tech unicorns of, 66, 67fig Volksparteien (Germany), 80, 83 W Wage “decoupling” practice, 34 Walesa, Lech, 83 Wall Street Journal “Competition is for Losers” editorial (Thiel), 208–209 on lower global GDP growth, 25 on rising global debt (2020), 28 Ward, Barbara, 11 Warner, Charles Dudley, 133 War on Poverty, 135 Warren, Elizabeth, 127, 128 Warsaw Pact, 77 Washington Post, 121, 221 Water resources microplastics pollution of, 50 UN Water agency on state of, 50 Waze app (Israel), 33 Wealth inequality consequences of increasing, 42–43 First Industrial Revolution (19th century) and, 132–134 health, social mobility, and, 41–46 as higher than income inequality, 41 the one percent and, 41–42 United Kingdom turn of the 20th century, 104 World Inequality Lab (WIL) on India and China's, 72–73fig See also Income inequality; Inequalities Wealth Project, 191 Weiszacker, Richard von, 76–77 West Berlin (West Germany), 75–77, 88, 89 West Germany Berlin Wall (1961–1989) dividing East and, 75–77, 88, 89 Marshall Plan to rebuild, 6–7 reconstruction of post-war society and, 8 reunification of East and, 17, 78 ruined post-World War II economy of, 4–5 Wirtschaftswunder (economic miracle) [1945–early 1970s], 8 Works Council Act (1952) of, 10 See also East Germany; Germany West Java entrepreneur story (2012), 93–94 WhatsApp (US), 211 Wheatley, James, 27 Windows Media Player (Microsoft), 139 Wipro [India], 68 Wired magazine, 59, 128, 149, 242 Wirtschaftswunder (German economic miracle) [1945–early 1970s], 8 Wolf, Martin, 62 Women as effective government leaders during COVID-19 pandemic, 224 increased education and labor-force participation of, 9 political issue of gender representation of, 188–189 Women's liberation trends (21st century), 9–10 Wood, Alex, 242 Works Council Act (1952) [Germany], 10 World Bank creation of the, 6 on education levels in Africa and South Asia (2018), 44 GDP measure used by, 24 on Indonesia's prudent economic management, 98 lack of representation evidenced in, 197 World Economic Forum advocating long-term perspective by companies, 250 Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (San Francisco, 2017) of the, 144 CEO Climate Leaders group at the, 167 climate change solutions sought by, 162, 164–165 COVID-19 pandemic accusations against, 87 Davos Manifesto (1973), 13–14, 88, 213 Davos Manifesto (2020), 191–192, 213 European Management Forum forerunner of, 11, 15 facilitating German reunification process, 78 Global Competitiveness Index and Inclusive Development Index of, 189, 190 global membership (1980s) of the, 15 Global Risks annual report by the, 52 Global Shapers network of, 245, 246 Global Social Mobility index (2020), 43–44 on global warming (1973), 47 International Business Council of the, 193, 214, 249 Internet Agenda of the, 246 Jack Ma as “Young Global Leader,” 128 on pension savings gap, 32–33 presentation on societal unrest to, 85–86 Stakeholder Capitalism Metrics initiative, 193, 214–215, 249, 250–251 World Economic Forum Annual Meetings (Davos) Annual Meeting in New York (2002), 17–18 Benioff's comments on need to shift toward stakeholder model, 201 the first European Management Forum (1971), 11, 88 Greta Thunberg's speech (2019) at, 53, 147, 149–150, 168, 250 Marc Benioff's speech on capitalism (2020) during, 164, 211 Net-Zero Challenge invitation to participates in, 162 Peccei's keynote speech (1973) at, 13, 47, 52 as platform for German reunification process (1990), 78 viritual meeting (2020) during COVID-19 pandemic, 250 World Health Organization (WHO) proposed integrating antitrust measures into, 142 on public health care spending, 32 on unsafe air of polluted cities (2019), 72 World Inequality Lab (WIL), 72–73fig World Inequality Report (2018), 38, 138fig World Meteorological Organization, 51 World Trade Organization (WTO) Appellate Judges of the, 197 China's membership in, 18, 59, 64 as an international community stakeholder, 178 World War I ending first wave of globalization, 105 Germany's “Never Again War” rallying cry after, 4 technology as destructive power during, 134 Treat of Versailles (1919) ending, 5–6 World War II division of East and West Germany after end of, 75–76 global economic development following end of, 3, 7–11, 251 low GDP at end of the, 105 Pearl Harbor attack against US, 17 ruinous state of Germany by end of, 4 “Stunde Null” (or “Zero Hour”) [May 8, 1945] ending, 5 tanks and planes technologies during, 134 Wozniak, Steve, 126, 128 Wu, Tim, 126–127, 128, 137, 139, 140, 145 X Xi Jinping, 62, 100, 184 Y Yang, Andrew, 239 Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) protests (France), 86–87, 195 Yom Kippur War, 12 Yoshida Shigeru, 8 YouGov–Bertelsmann globalization poll (2018), 97 Youth for Climate movement (2017) [France], 86 Z Zambia, 64 Zeppelin (German manufacturer), 4 Zermatt (Switzerland), 51–52 ZF (Zeppelin Foundation), 6–9, 16, 18 Zhangjiang hi-tech zone (Shanghai, China), 61 Zhongguancun neighborhood (Beijing, China), 61 ZIP codes, 3 ZTE (China), 55, 60 Zuckerberg, Mark, 128, 212 Zucman, Gabriel, 41, 127 WILEY END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT Go to www.wiley.com/go/eula to access Wiley’s ebook EULA.

The UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystems Services (IPBES) concluded in a 2019 report that “nature is declining globally at rates unprecedented in human history,” with species already becoming extinct “at least tens to hundreds of times faster than the average over the past 10 million years.”77 Quoting the research, the Financial Times also wrote that “one million of Earth's estimated 8 million plant and animal species are at risk of extinction.”78 Another specialized UN agency, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), issued a warning late 2018 that the current path of CO2 emissions would also lead to an unstoppable cycle of global warming—with major disruptions for life on earth—if major reductions weren't achieved by 2030. It said, “Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot would require rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure (including transport and buildings), and industrial systems.”79 But hopes for even that narrow path to a limited global warming of 1.5°C had all but evaporated two years later.


The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations by Daniel Yergin

3D printing, 9 dash line, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, addicted to oil, Admiral Zheng, Albert Einstein, American energy revolution, Asian financial crisis, autonomous vehicles, Ayatollah Khomeini, Bakken shale, Bernie Sanders, BRICs, British Empire, coronavirus, Covid-19, COVID-19, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, disruptive innovation, distributed generation, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, failed state, gig economy, global pandemic, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inventory management, James Watt: steam engine, Kickstarter, LNG terminal, Lyft, Malacca Straits, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, Masdar, mass incarceration, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, new economy, off grid, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, paypal mafia, peak oil, pension reform, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, super pumped, supply-chain management, trade route, Travis Kalanick, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, ubercab, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce

Vaclav Smil, Energy Transitions: Global and National Perspectives (Santa Barbara: Praeger, 2017). 3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007); Rajendra Pachauri, CERAWeek, February 11, 2008; Gayathri Vaidyanathan, “U.N. Climate Science Body Launches Search to Replace a Strong Leader,” E&E News, February 25, 2015. 4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva: IPCC, 2014); Steven Koonin, “Climate Science Is Not Settled,” Wall Street Journal, September 19, 2014. 5.

IHS Markit launched a major research program on hydrogen in 2017 that focused on Europe, California, and China and continues in the Forum on Hydrogen and Renewable Gas. 3. Joeri Rogelj et al., “Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development,” in Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5°C, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2018; IPCC, B. Metz et al., eds., IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005); Francois Bastin et al., “The Global Tree Restoration Potential,” Science 365, no. 6448 (July 5, 2019), pp. 76–79. For an overview of options, see U.S.

As for natural gas, global consumption has increased 60 percent since 2000.2 * * * — The framework that has shaped the global discussion of climate change has been the periodic reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, known as the IPCC, under the auspices of the United Nations. This is a self-governing network of scientists and researchers that issues periodic reports, with each one raising further the crescendo of alarm. The first, in 1990, said that the earth was warming and that the warming was “broadly consistent with the predictions of climate models” as to largely “man-made greenhouse warming.” But the changes, it added, were also broadly consistent with “natural climate variability.” By 2007, in its fourth report, the IPCC was much more categorical—it was “very likely” that humanity was responsible for climate change.


pages: 239 words: 68,598

The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning by James E. Lovelock

Ada Lovelace, butterfly effect, carbon footprint, Clapham omnibus, cognitive dissonance, continuous integration, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, discovery of DNA, disinformation, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Garrett Hardin, Henri Poincaré, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), mandelbrot fractal, mass immigration, megacity, Northern Rock, oil shale / tar sands, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, planetary scale, short selling, Stewart Brand, Tragedy of the Commons, University of East Anglia

This led the eminent Swedish climatologist Bert Bolin to persuade the United Nations (UN) to form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with Sir John Houghton and Gylvan Meiro Filho as its first co‐chairs. It began gathering evidence about the changing chemistry and physics of the atmosphere in 1990 and has issued reports in 1991, 1995, 2001 and 2007. Through the efforts of this more than 1,000‐strong panel of scientists of many different nations we now know enough about the Earth’s atmosphere to make intelligent guesses about future climates. But so far these guesses have been unable to match the observed changes in climate closely enough for us to be confident about IPCC forecasts decades into the future.

It was good to recognize the huge efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore with the Nobel Peace Prize and to have a brave 10,000 make the long journey to Bali as a salutation, but because they failed to see the Earth as alive and responsive they ignored at our peril the extent of its disapproval of all we do. As we hold our meetings and talk of stewardship, Gaia still moves step by step towards the hot state, one that will allow her to continue as the regulator, but where few of us will be alive to meet and talk. Perhaps we were celebrating because the once rather worrying voice of the IPCC now spoke comfortably of consensus and endorsed those mysterious concepts of sustainability and energy that renewed itself.

B. 108 Henderson-Sellers, Ann 42 Ho, Mae Wan 106 holistic systems 127, 129–30, 131 Holland, H. D. 108, 112 Hölldobler, Bert 133 hornets 141 hothouse condition 101 Houghton, Sir John 3, 10 humidity, relative 39 hydrocarbons 77–8 hydroelectricity 71 hysteresis 101, 113, 167 India, pollution 37 intelligence 156–7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3, 4, 7–8 forecasting 23–6, 27, 28, 29, 40, 44 isoprene 98 Jet Propulsion Laboratory 1, 13, 105 Jones, Chris 42 Kahn, Herman 24–5 Kasting, James 108, 110 Keeling, Charles David 6 Keeling, Ralph 6, 14 Koeslag, Johan 115 Kump, Lee 29, 110 Kunzig, Robert, Fixing Climate 11, 97 Kyoto Agreement 8 Lackner, Klaus 97 Laplace, Pierre-Simon 132 Lawson, Nigel, An Appeal to Reason 51, 147 leaves, temperature 38 Lehmann, Johannes 58, 99 Lenton, Timothy 42, 115 ‘lifeboat’ world 11–12, 22, 56, 161 Liss, Professor Peter 42, 116 Litvinenko, Alexander 75 livestock, greenhouse gas 47 living space 87–91 Lorenz, Edward 132–3 Lovelock, Helen 137 Lovelock Sandy 73, 79, 108, 115, 123–4, 125, 136, 141–3 Lovelock, Tom 134–5 McGuffie, Kendal 42 magnesium carbonate 97 mankind breathing greenhouse gas 47 importance to Gaia 21 place in Earth system 6 use of fire 149–51 Margulis, Lynn 13, 108, 111 Marine Biological Association 43 Mars, atmosphere 107 Martin, John 98 Maunder minimum 41 May, Robert 128, 132–3 Maynard Smith, John 115, 128 media, anti-nuclear 71–6 methane 79 clathrates 102 micro-organisms 31, 108 Midgley, Mary 106 Millennium Assessment Ecosystem Commission 42 models climate change 7, 14, 30, 33–5, 40–45, 129 dangers of 4, 6, 14, 26, 129–30, 131–2 Monod, Jacques 127, 158–9 National Centre for Atmospheric Research 42 neo-Darwinism 111, 115, 132, 153 New Age 106, 111 nuclear energy 16–17, 50, 64, 68–76, 83 oceans acidification 41, 46, 94, 102 carbon dioxide storage 97–9 fertilization 98 as indicator of global warming 29, 44–5 oil 77–8, 83 overpopulation 3–4, 9, 49, 77 oxygen 49, 152 concentration 105–6 ozone depletion 42, 95, 137 Pachauri, Dr Rajendra K. 30, 49 Paltridge, Garth W. 118 Parris, Matthew 70–71 Pearce, Fred 106 perception 123–6 of Gaia 126–7 pesticides 143, 144, 145 petroleum 77–8 photosynthesis 38, 49, 99, 152 Pinatubo eruption, effect on climate 4, 37, 40, 94 Poincaré, Henri 132 pollution effect on climate 35–7 light 3 polonium-210 75 Polovina, Jeffrey 29 Porritt, Jonathon 106 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 42 Prince’s Forest Trust 97 radiation, nuclear 70–71 Rahmstorf, Stefan 7, 26, 42 Ramanathan, Professor V. 37 Rapley, Chris 77, 98 rationalism 127 reductionism, Cartesian 127, 130, 131, 158–9 Rees, Sir Martin, Our Final Century 41 religion 157–9 Rogers, James 79 Rogers, Richard, Cities for a Small Planet 87 Russell, Bertrand 44 Saunders, Dame Cicely 46 Saunders, Professor Peter 115 Schellnhuber, John 42 Schneider, Stephen 3, 8, 15, 28, 120 Schrödinger, Erwin 127 Schroeder, Professor Peter 121 Schwartzman, D.


pages: 138 words: 40,525

This Is Not a Drill: An Extinction Rebellion Handbook by Extinction Rebellion

3D printing, autonomous vehicles, banks create money, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, Colonization of Mars, crowdsourcing, David Attenborough, David Graeber, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, feminist movement, full employment, gig economy, global pandemic, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, mass immigration, Peter Thiel, place-making, quantitative easing, Ray Kurzweil, Sam Altman, smart grid, supply-chain management, the scientific method, union organizing, urban sprawl, wealth creators

To save the climate and the city, we need to think big, start small, but act now. 28/ WHAT IF … WE REDUCED CARBON EMISSIONS TO ZERO BY 2025? HAZEL HEALY In October 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a stark warning: enact urgent measures to limit global warming within the next twelve years or irrevocably deplete the ecosystems that sustain human life on Earth. By way of remedy, the IPCC recommends that we reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) to ‘net zero’ by 2050. The concept of ‘net zero’ controversially includes so-called ‘negative emissions’, which presumes the use of technologies that take carbon dioxide from the air and lock it into underground sinks and reservoirs.

We are going to do everything in our power to keep our coral reefs intact and our heads above water. We harbour no illusions about the dangers climate change poses. For the Maldives, climate change isn’t an environmental issue. It is a national security threat. It is an existential emergency. The Maldives are disappearing. We will soon be under water. The recent IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report is crystal clear: emissions must be reduced by 45 per cent in twelve years to stabilize global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. That is a daunting task. And climate change is already upon us: weather patterns are changing; coral reefs are dying; erosion and water contamination are getting worse.

It is time to prepare, both emotionally and practically, for a disaster. I am a social scientist, not a climatologist. So who am I to spread panic and fear when the world’s top scientists say we have twelve years? Like many readers, I had assumed the authority on climate was the IPCC – the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – but it turns out they’ve been consistently underestimating the changes. In 2007 they said an ice-free Arctic was a possibility by 2100. That sounds far enough away to calm the nerves. But real-time measurements are documenting such rapid loss of ice that some of the world’s top climate scientists are saying it could be ice free in the next few years.


pages: 264 words: 71,821

How Bad Are Bananas?: The Carbon Footprint of Everything by Mike Berners-Lee

air freight, carbon footprint, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Richard Feynman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Skype, sustainable-tourism, two and twenty, University of East Anglia

Everything on black carbon is taken from this chapter. 20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group I Report: The Physical Science Basis (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Chapter 2; Ramanathan & Carmichael, op. cit. note 2.) Referenced in the Worldwatch Institute’s piece on black carbon (see note 9 above). Radiative forcing from black carbon is put at 0.4 to 0.9 watts per square meter (0.04 to 0.08 watts per square foot), in contrast with 1.6 watts per square meter (0.15 watts per square foot) for CO2. 21. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Global anthropogenic GHG emissions.

In the name of open-mindedness I’ve looked in detail at several other “skeptics” and had a similar experience.2 So much for the skeptics. Let’s look at the mainstream scientific community. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change consists of around 2,500 scientists. The skeptics point out that there may be potential for group-think and mass hysteria. These are warnings that should be taken seriously. Furthermore, there have been occasional errors in the IPCC’s work, and even the hint of the odd deliberate misrepresentation. However, the standard of integrity that is demanded of the climate change believers is on a different plane altogether from that demanded of the skeptics.

See also mortality hydrogen generation, 153 ice cream, 54 Iceland, 54, 56–58, 158, 162, 165–66, 167, 194 India, 103, 104, 152, 162, 165–66, 173, 194 indirect emissions, defined, 7 Indonesia, 152, 194 input–output analysis, 124, 141–42, 191–93 insulation, 120–22, 188, 189, 215nn6–7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 185–86 Inventory of Carbon and Energy, 191 investment, in renewable energy, 59–61 Iran, 194 Iraq wars, 168, 174 ironing, 25–26 jewelry, 122–23 junk mail. See mail Kemp, Roger, 43 Kenya, 208n35 Keswick Brewing Company, 50–51 lamb, 111. See also meat Lancaster University, 154–56 landfills.


pages: 105 words: 18,832

The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View From the Future by Naomi Oreskes, Erik M. Conway

anti-communist, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Kim Stanley Robinson, laissez-faire capitalism, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, means of production, oil shale / tar sands, Pierre-Simon Laplace, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, stochastic process, the built environment, the market place

Vari- ous groups and individuals began to argue for the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions and begin a transition to a non-carbon-based energy system. Historians view 1988 as the start of the Penumbral Period. In that year, world scientific and political leaders created a new, hybrid scientific-governmental organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to communicate relevant science and form the T h e C o m i N g o f T h e P e N u m b r A l A g e 5 foundation for international governance to protect the planet and its denizens. A year later, the Montreal Protocol to Control Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer became a model for international governance to protect the atmosphere, and in 1992, based on that model, world nations signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to prevent “danger- ous anthropogenic interference” in the climate system.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, IARC-JAXA Information System (IJIS), accessed October 10, 2013: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/ en/home/seaice_extent.htm; Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis, National Snow & Ice Data Center, accessed October 10, 2013: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/; Christine Dell’Amore, “Ten Thousand Walruses Gather on Island As Sea Ice Shrinks,” National Geographic, October 2, 2013; William M. Connolley, “Sea ice extent in million square kilometers,” accessed October 10, 2013: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Seaice-1870-part-2009.png. 20. Gerald A. Meehl and Thomas F. Stocker, “Global Climate Projections,” in Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007—The Physical Science Basis.” February 2, 2007. 21. Clifford Krauss, “Exxon and Russia’s Oil Company in Deal for Joint Projects,” The New York Times, April 16, 2012. 22. For statistics on continued coal and oil use in the mid-twentieth century, see U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2011 (Washington, D.C.: N o t e s 85 U.S.

Two years before, scientists involved in the IPCC had declared by the early 2000s, dangerous anthropogenic warming to anthropogenic interference in be “unequivocal,” and public the climate system was under opinion polls showed that way. fires, floods, hurricanes, a majority of people—even and heat waves began to intenin the recalcitrant United sify. Still, these effects were States—believed that action discounted. was warranted. But shortly before the meeting, a massive campaign was launched to discredit the scientists whose research underpinned the 8 T h e C o m i N g o f T h e P e N u m b r A l A g e IPCC’s conclusion. This campaign was funded primarily by fossil fuel corporations, whose annual profits at that time exceeded the GDPs of most countries.5 (At the time, most countries still used the archaic concept of a gross domestic product, a measure of consumption, rather than the Bhutanian concept of gross domestic happiness to evaluate well-being in a state.)


pages: 397 words: 112,034

What's Next?: Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy by David Hale, Lyric Hughes Hale

affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, Basel III, Bear Stearns, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, Bretton Woods, business cycle, capital controls, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, debt deflation, declining real wages, deindustrialization, diversification, energy security, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, foreign exchange controls, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global village, high net worth, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, index fund, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Just-in-time delivery, Kenneth Rogoff, Long Term Capital Management, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Mikhail Gorbachev, Money creation, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage tax deduction, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, passive investing, payday loans, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, price stability, private sector deleveraging, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, regulatory arbitrage, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Thaler, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Savings and loan crisis, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, technology bubble, The Great Moderation, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Tobin tax, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, Tragedy of the Commons, Washington Consensus, Westphalian system, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce, yield curve

Fisher was appointed one of the experts completing the socioeconomic assessment of climate change for the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report. He served as economic adviser to Australia’s negotiating team at the third Conference of the Parties in Kyoto. He also fulfilled this role at the fourth, fifth, and sixth Conferences of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and was engaged as one of the experts completing the IPCC’s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. Dr. Fisher has published more than 260 papers and monographs. ANNA MATYSEK BAEconomics Anna Matysek specializes in resource and environmental economics and has more than a decade’s experience working in the areas of scenario design, CGE modeling, policy advice, and climate change mitigation and adaptation.

As scientific understanding of the climate change problem has improved, it has become increasingly clear that substantial emissions reductions will be required to avoid significant increases in global average temperature. The following is a review of climate change policy rather than of the science of climate change. Although there is much uncertainty about the nature of climate change, we have taken the broad scientific consensus as presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as given and as a reasonable representation of the state of the science. The nature of the emission reductions being discussed in the international climate negotiations go well beyond mitigation efforts at the margin because they involve major energy system transitions. To achieve this in a way that does not stifle economic growth, particularly in the developing world, is a challenge of unprecedented proportions.

As a lead author for the East and South Asia region on the World Bank–sponsored Intergovernmental Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development, she worked with a diverse team to develop economic, trade, and environmental scenarios. Ms. Matysek was a lead author in the areas of long-term and industry mitigation on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This paper was completed while she was at BAEconomics. She has recently become General Manager, Strategy and IOG–Business Development at Rio Tinto. TIMOTHY CONGDON International Monetary Research Ltd. Tim Congdon is one of the world’s leading monetary analysts.


pages: 462 words: 150,129

The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves by Matt Ridley

"Robert Solow", 23andMe, agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, Corn Laws, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, falling living standards, feminist movement, financial innovation, Flynn Effect, food miles, Garrett Hardin, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, happiness index / gross national happiness, haute cuisine, hedonic treadmill, Herbert Marcuse, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, Kula ring, Mark Zuckerberg, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Northern Rock, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, packet switching, patent troll, Pax Mongolica, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Productivity paradox, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Silicon Valley, spice trade, spinning jenny, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supervolcano, technological singularity, Thales and the olive presses, Thales of Miletus, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, ultimatum game, upwardly mobile, urban sprawl, Vernor Vinge, Vilfredo Pareto, wage slave, working poor, working-age population, Y2K, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game

A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-treering proxies. Energy & Environment 18: 1049-58; and Moberg, A., D.M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N.M. Datsenko, and W. Karlén, 2005. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature 433:613-7.‘the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’. The full IPCC reports are available at www.ipcc.ch. p. 331 ‘the Dutch economist Richard Tol’. www.ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/20061031_tol.pdf. p. 331 ‘With a higher discount rate, Stern’s argument collapses’. See Weitzman, M. 2007. Review of the Stern Review on the economics of climate change. Journal of Economic Literature 45 (3): ‘The present discounted value of a given global-warming loss from a century hence at the non-Stern annual interest rate of 6 per cent is one-hundredth of the value of the same loss at Stern’s centuries-long discount rate of 1.4 per cent.’

Besides, even if the current alarm does prove exaggerated, there is now no doubt that the climate of this planet has been subject to natural lurches in the past, and that though luckily there has been no huge lurch for 8,200 years, there have been some civilisation-killing perturbations – as the ruins at both Angkor Wat and Chichen Itza probably testify. So if only hypothetically, it is worth asking whether civilisation could survive climate change at the rate assumed by the consensus of scientists who comprise the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – that is, that the earth will warm during this century by around 3°C. However, that is just a mid-range figure. In 2007 the IPCC used six ‘emissions scenarios’, ranging from a fossil-fuel-intensive, centennial global boom to something that sounds more like a sustainable, groovy fireside sing-along, to calculate how much temperature will increase during the century.

See also: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/21/science/earth/21tier.html. p. 346 ‘carbon-rich oceanic organisms called salps’. Lebrato, M. and Jones, D.O.B. 2009. Mass deposition event of Pyrosoma atlanticum carcasses off Ivory Coast (West Africa). Limnology and Oceanography 54:1197–1209. Chapter 11 p. 349 IPCC projections for world GDP graph. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 4th Assessment Report 2007. p. 352 ‘said H.G. Wells’. Wells, H.G. ‘The Discovery of the Future’ Lecture at the Royal Institution, 24 January 1902, published in Nature 65:326–31. Reproduced with the permission of AP Watt Ltd on behalf of the Literary Executors of the Estate of H.G.


pages: 443 words: 112,800

The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World by Jeremy Rifkin

"Robert Solow", 3D printing, additive manufacturing, Albert Einstein, American ideology, barriers to entry, borderless world, carbon footprint, centre right, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate governance, decarbonisation, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, global supply chain, hydrogen economy, income inequality, industrial cluster, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job automation, knowledge economy, manufacturing employment, marginal employment, Martin Wolf, Masdar, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, new economy, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, purchasing power parity, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, scientific worldview, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, supply-chain management, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, urban planning, urban renewal, Yom Kippur War, Zipcar

., & Steiner, A. (2007, November 17). Foreword. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/frontmattersforeword.html. 34.Solomon, S., et al. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm. 35.Bernstein, L., Bosch, P., Canziani, O., Chen, Z., Christ, R., Davidson, O., Yohe, G. (2007, November 17).

Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 254. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf 41.Bernstein, L., Bosch, P., Canziani, O., Chen, Z., Christ, R., Davidson, O., Yohe, G. (2007, November 17). Observed Changes in Climate and Their Effects. In Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 32. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. 42.Webster, P., Holland, G., Curry, J., & Chang, H. (2005).

., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., van der Linden, P., & Hanson, C. (2007). Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic). In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 676. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch15.html; Instanes, A. (2005). Infrastructure: Buildings, Support Systems, and Industrial Facilities. In Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from http://www.acia.uaf.edu/PDFs/ACIA_Science_Chapters_Final/ACIA_Ch16_Final.pdf. 46.Lean, G. (2008, August 31).


pages: 829 words: 229,566

This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate by Naomi Klein

1960s counterculture, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, big-box store, bilateral investment treaty, British Empire, business climate, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, cognitive dissonance, coherent worldview, colonial rule, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, different worldview, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, energy security, energy transition, equal pay for equal work, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, financial deregulation, food miles, Food sovereignty, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, ice-free Arctic, immigration reform, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Jones Act, Kickstarter, Kim Stanley Robinson, light touch regulation, market fundamentalism, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, new economy, Nixon shock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open borders, patent troll, Pearl River Delta, planetary scale, post-oil, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Rana Plaza, renewable energy transition, Ronald Reagan, smart grid, special economic zone, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, structural adjustment programs, Ted Kaczynski, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, wages for housework, walkable city, Washington Consensus, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks

For more information about the vulnerability of small island nations and coastal areas of Latin America and South and Southeast Asia to sea level rise under “business as usual” and other emissions scenarios (including more optimistic ones), refer to the Working Group II contributions to the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports of the IPCC, both available at http://www.ipcc.ch See chapters 10, 13, and 16 of M.L. Perry et al., ed., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007); and chapters 24, 27, and 29 of V.R. Barros et al., ed., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part B: Regional Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014).

., 15 Thoreau, Henry David, 184, 286 350.org, 140, 156, 233n, 353, 356 tidal power, 127 Tiger Management, 208 tight-rock formations, 311; see also shale, fracking of Tillerson, Rex, 111, 314 Time magazine, Planet Earth on cover of, 74, 204 Tiputini oil field, 410 Tjelmeland, Aaron, 192, 195 Tongue River, 389, 390 Tongue River Railroad (proposed), 389 tornados, 406 Toronto, 55, 65, 67, 73, 126 Total, 246 Totnes, England, 364 Toyota, 196 trade, see free trade agreements; international trade trade unions, 81, 83, 177, 204, 454 job creation and, 126–27 job protection by, 126, 178 NAFTA opposed by, 84 transaction tax, 418 TransCanada, 149, 346, 359, 361, 362 see also Keystone XL pipeline Transition Town movement, 364 Transocean, 330 Trans-Pacific Partnership, 78 transportation infrastructure, 85, 90, 127 travel, wealth and, 113 Treaty 6, 372 tree farms, 222 Trenberth, Kevin, 272, 275 Trent River, 300 trickle-down economics, 19 Trinity nuclear test, 277 triumphalism, 205, 465 Tropic of Chaos (Parenti), 49 tropics, techno-fixes and risk to, 49 Trump, Donald, 3 Tschakert, Petra, 269 Tsilhqot’in First Nation, 345 Tsipras, Alexis, 181–82, 466 Tsleil-Waututh First Nation, 323 Tutu, Desmond, 464 Tuvalu, 13 2 degrees Celsius boundary, 87–88, 89, 150, 354, 456 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 13, 21, 56, 86–87, 214, 283 typhoons, 107, 175, 406, 465 Uganda, 222 ultra-deepwater “subsalt” drilling, 145 Undesirables (Isaacs), 167 unemployment, 180 unemployment insurance, 454 Unified Campesino Movement of Aguán, 222 Union of Concerned Scientists, 201 Clean Vehicles Program at, 237 United Kingdom, 13, 149, 170, 224, 225 compensation of slave-owners in, 415–16, 457 “dash for cash” in, 299 divestment movement in, 354 flooding in, 7, 54, 106–7 fracking in, 299–300, 313 Industrial Revolution in, 172–73, 410 negatives of privatization in, 128 politics of climate change in, 36, 150 supports for renewable energy cut in, 110 Thatcher government of, 39 World War II rationing in, 115–16 United Nations, 7, 18, 64, 87, 114 Bloomberg as special envoy for cities and climate change of, 236 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), 219–20, 224, 226 climate governance and, 280 climate summits of, 5, 11, 65, 150, 165, 200; see also specific summits Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 110 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) international agreements and, 17 Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, 135 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment of 1972, 202 United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, 377, 383 United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 180 United Nations Environmental Modification Convention, 278 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 272 United Nations Framework on Climate Change, 200, 410 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 76, 77, 78–79 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 167 United Nations Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (1992), 55, 293 United Policyholders, 109 United States, 19, 67, 68, 143 carbon emissions from, 409 coal exports from, 320, 322, 346, 349, 374, 376 Copenhagen agreement signed by, 12, 150 energy privatization reversals in, 98 environmental legislation in, 201–2 failure of climate legislation in, 226–27 Kyoto Protocol and, 218–19, 225–26 oil and gas export restrictions in, 71 opposition movement in, 9 solar energy market in, 72 WTO challenges brought against, 65 WTO challenges brought by, 64–65, 68 United States Climate Action Partnership (USCAP), 226–28 University College London, 415–16 uranium, 176 urban planning, green, 16 urban sprawl, 90, 91 US Airways, 1–2 U.S.

And the organizers go to some lengths to mimic credible scientific conferences, calling the gathering “Restoring the Scientific Method” and even choosing a name, the International Conference on Climate Change, that produces an organizational acronym, ICCC, just one letter off from that of the world’s leading authority on climate change, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a collaboration of thousands of scientists and 195 governments. But the various contrarian theses presented at the Heartland conference—tree rings, sunspots, the Medieval Warm Period—are old news and were thoroughly debunked long ago. And most of the speakers are not even scientists but rather hobbyists: engineers, economists, and lawyers, mixed in with a weatherman, an astronaut, and a “space architect”—all convinced they have outsmarted 97 percent of the world’s climate scientists with their back-of-the-envelope calculations.8 Australian geologist Bob Carter questions whether warming is happening at all, while astrophysicist Willie Soon acknowledges some warming has occurred, but says it has nothing to do with greenhouse emissions and is instead the result of natural fluctuations in the activity of the sun.


pages: 326 words: 48,727

Hot: Living Through the Next Fifty Years on Earth by Mark Hertsgaard

addicted to oil, Berlin Wall, business continuity plan, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth, disinformation, en.wikipedia.org, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fixed income, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kickstarter, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, peak oil, Port of Oakland, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, the built environment, transatlantic slave trade, transit-oriented development, two and twenty, University of East Anglia, urban planning

I could not have written this book without relying on the voluminous scientific research that has been done on global warming and climate change and, equally important, the efforts of scientifically literate experts to explain those findings in ways that a non-scientist such as myself can understand. A foundation source is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC has been criticized over the years, both by deniers of climate change who focus on a handful of errors in thousands of pages of text to try to discredit the entirety of climate science and, on the other side, by scientists and advocates who complain that the IPCC's procedures (including the control that governments exercise over the executive summaries of IPCC assessments) make its reports overly conservative and dated. Nevertheless, the IPCC's reports, especially its four Assessment Reports (published in 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007), are necessary (if often dry and technical) reading for any student of climate change.

In particular, King's assertions went beyond the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international group of scientists and experts the UN had created in 1988 to advise the world's governments on global warming. The IPCC had issued three major reports on climate change by the time I interviewed King. Its First Assessment Report appeared in 1990, its Second Assessment Report in 1995, and its Third Assessment Report in 2001. Only in its Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007, eighteen months after our interview, did the IPCC declare that the scientific evidence for man-made global warming was "unequivocal" and that long-term sea level rise and other impacts of climate change had become inevitable.

"This Was a Crime" [>] Epilogue: Chiara in the Year 2020 [>] Acknowledgments [>] Notes [>] Index [>] Prologue: Growing Up Under Global Warming Working on climate change used to be about saving the world for future generations. Not anymore. Now it's not only your daughter who is at risk, it's probably you as well. —MARTIN PARRY, co-chair of the Fourth Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change I covered the environmental beat for fifteen years before I became a father. Much of that time was spent overseas, where, like many other journalists, I saw more than my share of heartbreaking things happening to children. But they were always other people's children. My first time was in the old Soviet Union, where I exposed a series of nuclear disasters that had been kept secret for decades by both the KGB and the CIA.


pages: 427 words: 111,965

The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth by Tim Flannery

Alfred Russel Wallace, carbon footprint, clean water, cross-subsidies, decarbonisation, Doomsday Clock, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, South China Sea, Stephen Hawking, uranium enrichment, Y2K

Another decade of such profits may cost us the Earth. We must break now from this catalogue of infamy to examine the workings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC is not an industry or lobby group. It was established in 1988 and is a joint subsidiary body of the United Nations environment program and the World Meterological Organization. Its workings illustrate how industry uses proxies to slow down, and tone down, the vital work carried out by the group. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC was released in 2001 and is the work of 426 experts, whose conclusions were refereed (twice) by 440 reviewers and overseen by thirty-three editors, before finally being approved by delegates from 100 countries.

By 1979 more technologically advanced models had been employed, and these suggested that the rise was more likely to be 3.5 to 3.9°C, give or take a couple of degrees.3 Astonishingly, for over twenty years this prediction and its degree of uncertainty hardly changed: in 2001 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was still giving the outcome as 3°C, give or take a couple of degrees. The explanation seems to be that while the increasingly sophisticated computer models eliminated sources of uncertainty in their programs, they had to incorporate more uncertainty from the real world. This situation, however, is now changing.

See also clathrates; glaciers; sea ice ice ages, 15-16, 54-55, 57-59, 68, 143 and carbon dioxide, 40, 66 causes of, 40, 41-42 ice caps, 57, 144, 147-49 Iceland, 225, 276 India, 140-41, 230, 275-76, 288 Indian Ocean, 108, 125, 128-29 Indonesia, 105-6, 107 Industrial Revolution, 28-29, 37, 64 In Search of the Golden Frog (Crump), 116-17 insects Anopheles mosquito, 177 butterflies, 88, 89 Euphydryas editha (Edith’s checkerspot butterfly), 88 Operopthera brumata (winter moth), 89-90 spruce bark beetle, 98 Institute of Public Affairs (Australia), 244 insurance industry, 235-36 Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, 286 International Energy Agency, 255 International Ozone Commission, 214 Inuit, 100, 102, 169, 218, 286-87 invertebrates, 176-77 oysters, 186 pectens, 186 salps, 97 starfish, crown of thorns, 106 Tiphoboia horei (spined snail), 91 worms, marine, 199 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 146, 208, 241, 245-46 Irish Sea, 60 isotopes, 49, 57, 196-97 Japan, 226, 227-28, 271, 280 Jet Stream, 84, 86, 132 Jorgenson, Dale, 234 Judah, Tim, 126 Karoly, David, 128 Karoo (South Africa), 180 Keeling, Charles, 25 Keeling curve, 25-26 Kiribati, 84, 287 Knutson, Thomas, 312 Korea, 138, 230 krill, 96-98 KWR (Quaker Chemical Corp.), 305 Kyoto Protocol, 222-31, 289, 291-92 carbon credits, 225, 227-28, 299-300 carbon dollars, 224, 228-29, 291-92 costs of compliance, 232-35 costs of inaction, 235-36 criticism of, 224, 228 developing world and, 229-30, 300 economic aspects, 224-25, 226-29, 233 emissions trading, 228-29 energy industry and, 227, 243-45 non-signatories, 7, 213, 223, 237 ratification, 213, 223, 224 Lackner, Klaus, 34 Lacour-Gayet, Philippe, 254 Lamb, H.


pages: 148 words: 45,249

Losing Earth: A Recent History by Nathaniel Rich

disinformation, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, energy security, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, oil shale / tar sands, planetary scale, Ronald Reagan, spinning jenny, the scientific method

It was at this moment—when the environmental movement was, in the words of one energy lobbyist, “on a tear”—that the United Nations unanimously endorsed the establishment, by UNEP and the WMO, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to be composed of scientists and policymakers who would conduct scientific assessments and develop a global climate policy. During the transition period, Bush’s administration invited the IPCC’s Response Strategies Working Group, the body responsible for planning a climate treaty, to hold one of its first sessions at the U.S. State Department. Bush had promised to combat the greenhouse effect with the White House effect.

The climate scientist James Hansen has called a 2-degree warming “a prescription for long-term disaster.” Long-term disaster is now the best-case scenario. A 3-degree warming, on the other hand, is a prescription for short-term disaster: forests sprouting in the Arctic, the abandonment of most coastal cities, mass starvation. Robert Watson, a former chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has argued that a 3-degree warming is the realistic minimum. Four degrees: Europe in permanent drought; vast areas of China, India, and Bangladesh claimed by desert; Polynesia swallowed by the sea; the Colorado River thinned to a trickle. The prospect of a 5-degree warming prompts some of the world’s preeminent climate scientists, not an especially excitable type, to warn of the fall of human civilization.

The Great Includer and the Old Engineer Spring 1989 The IPCC’s Response Strategies Working Group convened at the State Department ten days after Bush’s inauguration to begin the process of negotiating a global treaty. James Baker III chose the occasion to make his first speech as secretary of state. He had received a memo from Frederick M. Bernthal, a former nuclear regulatory commissioner and chemistry professor who was an assistant secretary of state for international environmental affairs and had been named the chairman of the IPCC working group. In frank, brittle prose, Bernthal argued that it was prudent to begin a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions; the costs of inaction were simply too high.


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The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World by Daniel Yergin

"Robert Solow", addicted to oil, Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, borderless world, BRICs, business climate, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, cleantech, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, colonial rule, Colonization of Mars, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, diversification, diversified portfolio, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, facts on the ground, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, financial innovation, flex fuel, global supply chain, global village, high net worth, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, John Deuss, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, life extension, Long Term Capital Management, Malacca Straits, market design, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mohammed Bouazizi, mutually assured destruction, new economy, Norman Macrae, North Sea oil, nuclear winter, off grid, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, oil-for-food scandal, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, Piper Alpha, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Robert Metcalfe, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Sand Hill Road, Savings and loan crisis, shareholder value, Shenzhen special economic zone , Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, smart grid, smart meter, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Stuxnet, technology bubble, the built environment, The Nature of the Firm, the new new thing, trade route, transaction costs, unemployed young men, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, William Langewiesche, Yom Kippur War

But the absence of television cameras certainly indicated that climate change was not yet an issue that would light up the public’s imagination. 16 THE IPCC AND THE “INDISPENSABLE MAN” But before the year was out, and far from the glare of public attention, the decisive step would be taken that would frame how the world sees climate change today. In November 1988 a group of scientists met in Geneva to inaugurate the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This launch might have been lost in the alphabet soup of international agencies, conferences, and programs, but over the course of the next two decades, it would rise out of obscurity to shape the international discourse on this issue. The IPCC drew its legitimacy from two international organizations, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Development Program.

On that day, a committee of the Norwegian parliament awarded the Nobel Peace Prize jointly to Al Gore and to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. “We must begin by making the common rescue of the global environment the central organizing principle of the world community,” said Gore in his acceptance speech. The world, he declared, faced “a planetary emergency.”15 Gore, of course, was eminently recognizable in the photographs from Oslo. But who was that other person, standing next to him, somewhat incongruous in a Nehru jacket, with his long black hair merging into a black-and-white beard who described himself as “the bearded face of the IPCC”? This was Rajendra Pachauri, an Indian economist and engineer who was accepting the award on behalf of the IPCC because he was its chairman.

King Hubbert’s Peak Hubbert’s Pimple Hu Jintao Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Rita Hussein, Saddam Gulf War and Iraq War and hydraulic fracturing, see fraccing hydrocarbonolostic hydrocarbons see also coal; gas, natural; oil hydrogen hydrogen bomb hydrogen sulfide hydrolysis hydropower in California in China as fuel choice Ibn Saud, King of Saudi Arabia Icahn, Carl ice ages Ikeguchi, Kotaro (Taichi Sakaiya) Imle, John Immelt, Jeff Inconvenient Truth, An Independent System Operator (ISO) India automobiles in as BRIC climate change and coal use in economy and economic growth of electricity in energy security and gas price subsidies in hydropower in nuclear power of nuclear weapons of pipelines and wind energy in Indian Ocean Indonesia Jakarta OPEC meeting in (Nov. 1997) as LNG supplier as “new tiger,” oil production in Industrial Revolution industry, energy efficiency of inflation China and price controls and information technology (IT) innovation in buildings electricity and LNG and oil and renewables and see also shale gas; technology Institute for Advanced Study Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Insull, Samuel integrated companies Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) polarization over process of reports of Interior Department, U.S. internal combustion engine (ICE) Internal Revenue Service (IRS) International Association for Energy Economics International Atomic Energy Agency International Energy Agency (IEA) International Energy Forum International Energy Treaty International Geophysical Year (IGY) International Monetary Fund International Petroleum Exchange Internet Arab Awakening and cybercriminals and electricity and investment in biofuels Chinese in Chinese oil companies demand shock and in electricity in energy efficiency Exxon’s process for Iran and in Iraq in Kazakhstan in Qatar in renewables sovereign wealth funds and U.S.


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The Future Is Faster Than You Think: How Converging Technologies Are Transforming Business, Industries, and Our Lives by Peter H. Diamandis, Steven Kotler

Ada Lovelace, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, blood diamonds, Burning Man, call centre, cashless society, Charles Lindbergh, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, Colonization of Mars, computer vision, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Dean Kamen, delayed gratification, dematerialisation, digital twin, disruptive innovation, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, experimental economics, food miles, game design, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, gig economy, Google X / Alphabet X, gravity well, hive mind, housing crisis, Hyperloop, impact investing, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of the telegraph, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, late fees, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, lifelogging, loss aversion, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mary Lou Jepsen, mass immigration, megacity, meta-analysis, microbiome, mobile money, multiplanetary species, Narrative Science, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, Oculus Rift, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer lending, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, QR code, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Florida, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart contracts, smart grid, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, stealth mode startup, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supercomputer in your pocket, supply-chain management, technoutopianism, Tesla Model S, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, X Prize

half of all unicorns: Stuart Anderson, “Immigrants and Billion Dollar Startups,” National Foundation for American Policy, March 2016. See: http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Immigrants-and-Billion-Dollar-Startups.NFAP-Policy-Brief.March-2016.pdf. Climate Migrations the very first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: “Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2010. See: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/climate-change-the-ipcc-1990-and-1992-assessments/. Oxford scientist Norman Myers: Norman Myers, “Environmental Refugees: A Growing Phenomenon of the 21st Century,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, May 2002, DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2001.0953.

Climate Migrations While the last chapter examined technological ways to mitigate climate change, this one acknowledges that our ability to implement these solutions at scale is nowhere near where it needs to be. And make no mistake, when the weather shifts, people shift with it. Estimates of this impact are startling. And climbing. In 1990, the very first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report warned that even a slight rise in sea levels could produce “tens of millions of environmental refugees.” In 1993, Oxford scientist Norman Myers controversially updated the IPCC’s prediction, arguing that climate change could displace as many as 200 million people by 2050. By decade’s end, as Mark Levine explained in Outside magazine: “The weather [had] come to assume the shape of our collective anxieties, our fantasies about technology, nature, retribution, inevitability.… We have overstepped, we whisper, we have changed the weather.

See also: Alexandra Wilson, “Got Milk? This $40M Startup Is Creating Cow-Free Dairy Products That Taste like the Real Thing,” Forbes, January 9, 2019. PART 3: THE FASTER FUTURE Chapter Thirteen: Threats and Solutions Water Woes “Special Report on Global Warming”: The intergovernmental panel on climate change, see: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/. Global Risks Report: World Economic Forum, “Global Risks Report 2018: 13th Edition,” January 17, 2018. See: https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2018. Dean Kamen: Dean Kamen, author interview, 2018. For more information about Dean Kamen, see his bio on the FIRST Robotics website here: https://www.firstinspires.org/about/leadership/dean-kamen.


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The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming by David Wallace-Wells

"Robert Solow", agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Asian financial crisis, augmented reality, basic income, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, Chekhov's gun, cognitive bias, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, disinformation, Donald Trump, effective altruism, Elon Musk, endowment effect, energy transition, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, failed state, fiat currency, global pandemic, global supply chain, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, Joan Didion, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Kim Stanley Robinson, labor-force participation, life extension, longitudinal study, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, megacity, megastructure, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, nuclear winter, Pearl River Delta, Peter Thiel, Plutocrats, plutocrats, postindustrial economy, quantitative easing, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, ride hailing / ride sharing, Sam Altman, Silicon Valley, Skype, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, the built environment, The future is already here, the scientific method, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, universal basic income, University of East Anglia, Whole Earth Catalog, William Langewiesche, Y Combinator

Mann and Tom Toles, The Madhouse Effect (New York: Columbia University Press, 2016). a recent survey of movies: Peter Kareiva and Valerie Carranza, “Existential Risk Due to Ecosystem Collapse: Nature Strikes Back,” Futures, September 2018. less than 40 percent: According to the IPCC, the figure is 35 percent: see IPCC, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, 2014). world’s ten biggest oil companies: Claire Poole, “The World’s Largest Oil and Gas Companies 2018: Royal Dutch Shell Surpasses Exxon as Top Dog,” Forbes, June 6, 2018. 15 percent of the world’s emissions: According to the World Resources Institute, the figure was 14.36 percent in 2017: Johannes Friedrich, Mengpin Ge, and Andrew Pickens, “This Interactive Chart Explains World’s Top Ten Emitters, and How They’ve Changed,” World Resources Institute, April 11, 2017, www.wri.org/blog/2017/04/interactive-chart-explains-worlds-top-10-emitters-and-how-theyve-changed.

It is complicated research, because it is built on two layers of uncertainty: what humans will do, mostly in terms of emitting greenhouse gases, and how the climate will respond, both through straightforward heating and a variety of more complicated, and sometimes contradictory, feedback loops. But even shaded by those uncertainty bars it is also very clear research, in fact terrifyingly clear. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) offers the gold-standard assessments of the state of the planet and the likely trajectory for climate change—gold-standard, in part, because it is conservative, integrating only new research that passes the threshold of inarguability. A new report is expected in 2022, but the most recent one says that if we take action on emissions soon, instituting immediately all of the commitments made in the Paris accords but nowhere yet actually implemented, we are likely to get about 3.2 degrees of warming, or about three times as much warming as the planet has seen since the beginning of industrialization—bringing the unthinkable collapse of the planet’s ice sheets not just into the realm of the real but into the present.

There is a 51 percent chance: Marshall Burke, “Economic Impact of Climate Change on the World,” http://web.stanford.edu/~mburke/climate/map.php. a team led by Thomas Stoerk: Thomas Stoerk et al., “Recommendations for Improving the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainty in Economic Estimates of Climate Impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 12, no. 2 (August 2018): pp. 371–76, https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rey005. global boom of the early 1960s: World Bank, “GDP Growth (Annual %),” https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. There are places that benefit: Burke, “Economic Impact of Climate Change,” http://web.stanford.edu/~mburke/climate/map.php.


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Twilight of Abundance: Why the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short by David Archibald

Bakken shale, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, deindustrialization, energy security, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), means of production, mutually assured destruction, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, peak oil, price discovery process, rising living standards, sceptred isle, South China Sea, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War

Their paper predicted that Solar Cycles 24 and 25 would have amplitudes similar to those of Solar Cycles 5 and 6 of the Dalton Minimum before a return to more normal levels mid-century.15 A Finnish tree-ring study followed in 2007 with a forecast cold period, beginning about 2015, deeper and broader than any cold period of the last 500 years.16 WHY DID SO MANY SCIENTISTS GET IT WRONG? How can the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Academy of Sciences in the United States, the Royal Society in the United Kingdom, and the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO in Australia all be so wrong? There are not very many scientists involved in the IPCC deliberations. The inner circle ultimately responsible for these organizations’ policy is possibly twenty souls. The question that needs to be asked is, “Did IPCC scientists actually believe in the global warming that they were promoting?” Apparently they did, and possibly still do.

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is not even a little bit bad. It is, in fact, wholly beneficial. The more carbon dioxide we can put into the atmosphere, the better life on Earth will be for human beings and all other living things. If all that is true, you will ask, how is it that the United Nations–derived Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came up with its ice cap–melting prediction of a 6°C increase in average global temperature by the end of this century? The notorious Climategate emails,1 released on November 20, 2009, appear to show scientists manipulating data to produce the answers they desired, bullying those who disagreed with them, plotting against scientific journal editors, and deliberately concocting misleading figures, among other apparent acts of willful malfeasance.

See Core countries (“the Core”) G G20, 4, 61 Gabala, 102 Gaddafi, Muammar, 54 Gandhi, Indira, 91 Gates, Robert, 128 Geophysical Research Letters, 30 Germany, 40, 68, 108–9, 114, 145–46 Giaever, Ivar, 168–69 glaciations, 16–17, 24, 166 Gleissberg cycle, the, 51 global warming Climategate and, 28–31 as cult, 4–5, 8–9, 57, 167, 178–79 disproving the theory of, x, 13, 15, 32, 166 IEA and, 140 public policy and, 140, 147, 151–52, 165, 170, 172, 177 science and, 5–6, 12, 22, 26, 35–36, 140, 168–69 too much focus on, vii–viii, 178–79 as worldwide conspiracy, 4, 61, 86, 115 Gōngjiàn Shou (character in “A Picture from a Possible Future”), 131, 134 grain 1816 and, 39 Brazil and, 59–60 Canada and, 2, 40 China and, 60, 67, 179 climate and, 2, 4, 6, 49–41, 64–66, 178–79 contamination of, 105–6 MENA region and, 44–58, 62–63, 95 Mexico and, 58–59 Russia and, 2, 59–60 South Africa and, 69 supply of (world), 1–2, 4, 6, 40–41, 58–61, 64–66, 153, 178–79 UK and, 7 U.S. and, 59–60, 66–67, 179 grain belts, 2, 4, 6, 41 Great Barrier Reef, the, 16 Great Depression, the, 65 Great Leap Forward (China), 60, 64–65, 112, 179 Great Plains, 24–25 Great Plains Synfuels Plant, 146–47, 149, 172 Greenland, 13–14 Green River Formation, 160–61, 171 Guam, 115, 127, 130–34 Gulf of Mexico, 24–25, 37, 144–45 H Hahn, Otto, 86 Hainan Island, 108 Haiti, 76, 186–87 Hanover, NH, temperature record, 21 Hanson, Victor David, 73–75 Hargraves, Robert, 163 Harrison, Mark, 117 Hawaii, 110 Haynesville Shale, 143 heroin, 45, 47 High Altitude Observatory, 22 Hiroshima, 88–90, 102–3 Hobbes, Thomas, 16 Holocene interglacial period, 16, 18, 166 Holocene Optimum, 16 Hoover Digest, 117 Hubbert, M. King, 140–41, 143 Hulme, Mike, 29 Huntington, Samuel, 107 I Iceland, 36–37 India, Indian, 23, 68, 74, 90–96, 180 Indian drought of 1967, 58 Indian Ocean, 53, 96 Indonesia, 68, 109 Industrial Revolution, 165, 167, 184 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 12, 28, 30–33 International Energy Agency (IEA), 114–15, 139–40 International Monetary Fund (IMF), the, 49 iodine-131 (I131), 105 Iowa, 15–16, 24, 50, 154, 173 Iranian Revolution, 56 Iran, Iranians collapse of, 45 energy and, 58, 119, 151–52 food supply and, 68 heroin and, 45 nuclear weapons and, 3, 47, 86, 92–94, 97–102, 119, 122–23, 179–80 population of, 56–57 relationship with Iraq, 56 Iraq, Iraqis, 45, 54, 56, 58, 98 Ireland, 21, 39–40, 61–62, 68 Irish potato famine, 61 Iron Dome, 97 Islam, Islamic attacks against the West, 54, 73, 75, 107–8 and cultural development, 48, 72, 81–84, 99, 107–8 in the Middle East, 56, 72, 92 Islamists, 50–51, 55, 95, 99 Israel, Israelis attacks on (past and future), 86, 94, 96–97, 99–102, 120 economy of, 68, 81 grain and, 55–56, 68 nuclear weapons of, 96–97, 180 J J-10A fighters, 125–26, 129 J-10B fighters, 129 J-11B fighters, 129 J-20 aircraft, 120, 126, 129–34 J-31 aircraft, 120 Janatti, Ahmad, 99 Jarvis, M.


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Warnings by Richard A. Clarke

active measures, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anti-communist, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, Bear Stearns, Bernie Madoff, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, discovery of penicillin, double helix, Elon Musk, failed state, financial thriller, fixed income, Flash crash, forensic accounting, friendly AI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge worker, Maui Hawaii, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, mouse model, Nate Silver, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, Ponzi scheme, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart grid, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Y2K

These three glaciers, along with the rest of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, contain enough ice to raise the global sea level by 3.9 feet. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the world’s preeminent climate science organization. It is open to all member countries of the United Nations; currently 195 of them are members. Thousands of scientists have contributed to its work. They state, “By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the authority of their scientific content.” Therefore, their work is “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.” The IPCC has been publishing its climate-change assessments since 1990. The IPCC disagrees significantly with Hansen about both the rate at which and the level to which the water will rise.

(Enthoven), 361 Hsu, Steve, 343 Huckabee, Mike, 384n Human embryo gene editing, 326, 340–41, 345 Huntington, Samuel, 36 Hurricane Andrew, 53 Hurricane Betsy, 46 Hurricane Katrina, 6, 39–55, 72 government failures, 50–55 levee system, 40, 41–42, 46, 49, 50, 53–54 making landfall, 39–40, 49 New Orleans Scenario and, 45, 46–50, 52 Hurricane Pam exercise, 40, 47–49 Hurricane Sandy, 252 Hussein, Saddam Allen’s warning of Gulf War, 19–20, 22–23, 26–30, 358 Iraq-Iran War, 22–24 WMD and, 31 Hussein of Jordan, 28 IBM, 202, 209 Idaho Falls exercise, 288–89 Ideological Response Rejection, 179–80 Impact events, 301–24 Chelyabinsk meteor, 309–10, 316 Chicxulub crater, 307–9 Tunguska event, 301–3, 316 “In-attentional blindness,” 175 India, 261–73 Cold Start doctrine, 264–65, 267, 270 Mumbai terrorist attacks of 2008, 261–64 nuclear weapons and Pakistan, 264–73, 281–82 partition of, 265–66 Indian Air Force, 264 Indian Army, 266–67 Indian Navy, 264 Indications and warning (I&W), 25–27, 359–60 Industrial Revolution, 175 Initial Occurrence Syndrome, 171–72 Ford and Syria, 72 Fukushima nuclear disaster, 97–98 Iraq-Kuwait case, 34–35 Morrison and asteroid threat, 318 van Heerden and levee failures, 52 Yudkowsky and AI, 215 Institutional reluctance, 140–42, 177–78, 320–21 Intelligence (IQ), 343 “Intelligence explosion,” 201–2, 205 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 246–50, 253, 254–55 International Arabian Horse Association, 54 International Herald-Tribune, 92 International Rice Research Institute, 193 International Summit on Human Gene Editing (2015), 345–46 Internet of Things (IoT), 292–300, 366 Invisible Obvious, 174–76, 234–35 In vitro fertilization (IVF), 343–44 Iran Iraq-Iran War, 22–24 nuclear program, 291–92 Syria and, 67, 73, 74 Iran-Contra scandal, 32 Iraq, 58, 63.

“Global Temperature,” Vital Signs, NASA Global Climate Change, http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature (accessed Oct. 9, 2016). 11. Christopher B. Field, Vicente R. Barros, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability—Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 63. 12. “Adoption of the Paris Agreement,” Conference of the Parties, Twenty-First Session, Paris, Nov. 30–Dec. 11, 2015, (United Nations: Framework Convention on Climate Change), 4, 6. 13.


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The Star Builders: Nuclear Fusion and the Race to Power the Planet by Arthur Turrell

Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, autonomous vehicles, Boris Johnson, coronavirus, Covid-19, COVID-19, decarbonisation, Donald Trump, energy security, energy transition, Ernest Rutherford, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jeff Bezos, Kickstarter, New Journalism, nuclear winter, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, Project Plowshare, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Bannon, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Tunguska event

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that climate change is contributing to the deaths of around 150,000 people worldwide per year already.17 In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) revealed just how little time we have left to act, injecting new urgency into the energy crisis. To avoid the worst effects, it was previously thought that the rise in temperature should be kept to, at most, 2 degrees Celsius. But as more data are gathered and more supercomputer simulations run, it seems that this just isn’t going to cut it. The IPCC now recommends that we should keep warming to under 1.5 degrees Celsius (approximately 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

See also renewable energy Banqiao Dam failure (1975), China, 181 energy crisis solution using, 36–37 lack of plants for, 37 public support for using, 40 world energy consumption and, 34 hydrogen composition of humans and, 86 fusion using isotopes of, 51 nuclear fusion reactions with, 87, 93–94 star formation and, 74, 75, 76, 77 Sun’s fusion reactions and, 79, 83–84 tokamak plasma and, 95, 101, 104 hydrogen bombs atomic bombs compared with, 166 Bikini Atoll testing (1953) of, 161–64, 173–74 controlled fusion reactors for power compared with, 8, 166, 167 net energy gain in, 47 nuclear fusion and fission basis for, 166 proposed space exploration use of, 214 radiation exposure from, 163, 174 Teller’s idea of using to generate electricity, 115–16 HyperJet Fusion Corporation, 143 ignition definition of, 9 EAST tokamak in China and, 193 hotspot ignition, 124 increased temperature and fusion reactions for, 92 JET and, 92 Lawson’s theory and equations on conditions for, 109 Livermore progress in, 16 magnetic fusion machines and, 185, 217 NIF possibilities for, 126, 188, 190, 191 Imperial College London, 26, 73, 96–97, 126–27, 144 inertial confinement fusion, 10 China’s use of, 14 costs of, 122, 198, 206 driver focusing mechanism in, 116–20 First Light Fusion’s use of, 24, 135, 190, 197–98 fusion plasmas timing in, 113–14 Halite-Centurion experiments and, 131, 190–91 laser improvements in, 190–91 later use of simulations replacing, 23 LIFE power plant prototype for, 199, 206 Los Alamos National Laboratory and, 24 low meltdown possibility in, 168–69 MagLIF experiment and, 157–58, 190 magnetic confinement compared with, 113–14 mechanism of, 10 mix of temperature, density, and confinement in, 113 net energy gain goal for, 130–32, 190–91, 199, 217 NIF’s use of, 17, 111, 112–13, 118, 126–29, 134, 188–91, 194, 198, 199, 212 Nuckolls’s experiments and, 116–18 plasma instabilities in, 129 plasma physics’ challenge for, 120 reactor design and, 195, 196–97 shock waves in, 134, 135 start-ups use of, 22 target fabrication in, 121–23, 126–28 Teller’s conception of, 115–16 timing and number of repeat shots in, 197–98 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 33–34, 36, 45 International Atomic Energy Agency, 14 International Energy Agency, 205, 206 International Space Station, 202 IPSOS poll, 40 ITER tokamak, Cadarache, France, 186–88, 193, 194, 197, 201 breeding tritium and, 196 construction delays in, 187–88 cost of, 202, 203–4 design of 187–88 expense of buildings, 202, 203–4 high temperatures for fusion in, 195 international agreement for building, 186–88, 191 international satellite sites for, 187 net energy gain goal and, 191 plasma Q goal of, 188 Japan atomic bombings (1945) in, 154 ITER tokamak, Cadarache, France, and, 186–87 JT-60 tokamak in, 185 Jernigan, Tammy, 78 Joint European Torus (JET) reactor building and shared management of, 88–89, 106–7 confinement of plasma in, 186 control room for monitoring data in, 92–93 cost of, 107, 202 deuterium alone used in, 94–95 high temperatures for fusion in, 91–95, 194 ignition and, 92 magnetic fields for plasma confinement during, 96 maintaining internal chamber wall conditions in, 104–6 physical setting for, 90 Q measure and, 92, 100, 105, 107–8, 183–84 Rimini’s role investigating instabilities of, 98–99, 102–3 robotics at, 196–97 safety of working environment at, 180 success of energy gain in, 107–8, 183–84, 191 trapping hot hydrogen in, 95–96 JT-60 tokamak, Japan, 185 Kingham, David, 33, 139–40, 141, 153–54, 205 Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR), 184, 185 Laberge, Michel, 145 Large Hadron Collider, CERN, 52, 202 Larmor, Joseph, 96 Larmor radius, 96 laser fusion, 120, 192 lasers, in inertial confinement fusion, 117–19 lasers, Maiman’s invention of, 117 Laser MegaJoule, France, 192 Lawrence, Ernest O., 111, 173, 183 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California, 78, 111–12 Halite-Centurion experiments at, 131, 190–91 inertial fusion energy goal of, 17 LIFE power plant prototype at, 199, 206 location of, 110–11 magnetic confinement device at, 97–98 NIF at.

Hurley, The Mortality Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution in the United Kingdom (UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs: Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants, 2010); European Environment Agency, Air Pollution Fact Sheet 2013—United Kingdom (European Union, 2013); “Air Pollution Deaths Are Double Previous Estimates, Finds Research,” Guardian (2019), https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/12/air-pollution-deaths-are-double-previous-estimates-finds-research. 15. J. Cook et al., “Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Scientific Literature,” Environmental Research Letters 8 (2013): 024024; T. Stocker et al., Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013); D. M. Etheridge et al., “Natural and Anthropogenic Changes in Atmospheric CO2 over the Last 1000 Years from Air in Antarctic Ice and Firn,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 101 (1996): 4115–128; NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division, Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Dry Air Mole Fractions from Quasi-Continuous Measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (2014). 16.


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Slowdown: The End of the Great Acceleration―and Why It’s Good for the Planet, the Economy, and Our Lives by Danny Dorling, Kirsten McClure

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, clean water, creative destruction, credit crunch, Donald Trump, drone strike, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Flynn Effect, full employment, future of work, gender pay gap, global supply chain, Google Glasses, Henri Poincaré, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Isaac Newton, James Dyson, jimmy wales, John Harrison: Longitude, Kickstarter, low earth orbit, Mark Zuckerberg, market clearing, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, means of production, megacity, meta-analysis, mortgage debt, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, Ponzi scheme, price stability, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, QWERTY keyboard, random walk, rent control, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, sexual politics, Skype, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, structural adjustment programs, the built environment, Tim Cook: Apple, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, very high income, wealth creators, wikimedia commons, working poor

See also carbon emissions gross domestic product (GDP), 232–41; China, 239–41, 241; concept of, 232–33; global, per capita, 233–37, 234, 292, 293, 297; United States, 237–39, 238 Grosz, Stephen, 317 Guatemala, 209, 210 Haiti, 212, 213 Haque, Umair, 319 Harrison, John, 30 Hawking, Stephen, 144 height, average adult, 266–67, 268, 269, 283 Henriksson, Anna-Maja, 312 hierarchy, 152, 182, 264, 285–86, 363n50 High-Speed Society (Rosa and Scheuerman), 272–73, 360n28, 360n30 home-loan debt, 49–56, 54 Hong Kong, 154, 263 household appliances, 267, 269 housing: house prices, 247–51, 249, 253–55; mortgages, 49–56, 54; rental, 49–50, 53; social housing, 51, 56 Huygens, Christiaan, 30 Ibbitson, John, 140, 141, 296 Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA), 153–54 immigration: and birth rates, 312; future scarcity of, 296; Japan and, 326; and population growth, 318; United Kingdom and, 165; United States and, 152, 153–54, 296, 318 income inequality, 24, 284, 294 India: automobile production, 115, 118; democracy in, 264–65; fertility rates, 226, 227; population, 3, 147, 165–68, 167, 171, 307–8 Indicators of Social Change (Sheldon and Moore), 313 Indonesia, 172, 173, 174 Industrial Revolution, 99, 230 Indus Valley Civilization, 264 inequalities: debt and the concentration of wealth, 37–38, 45–46, 56–58; and population slowdown, 7–8; redistribution imperative, 294–95; and slowdown, 319–22, 343n1; in United States, 152–53 infant mortality, 185, 217–18, 220 information. See data/information innovations. See discoveries and innovations intelligence, measured as IQ, 269–70, 272 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 119, 123, 136 International Labour Organisation (ILO), 294 International Monetary Fund, 160 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 299 Internet of Things, 87 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 119, 123, 136 IQ (intelligence measured as), 269–70, 272 Iran, 172, 173 Iraq, 172, 173 Ireland, 162, 163, 164, 165, 232 iron smelting, 90–91, 98–99 Istanbul, 323 Italy, 113, 114, 161, 173 Jackson, Tim, 242, 243 Japan: automobile production, 113–15, 118; as leader of slowdown, 326–30; marriage, 211; population, 5, 168–71, 169; rural migration, 22–24; Shimanto, 22–23; Tokyo ROXY index, 326–29, 328 Japan Times, 170, 330 Johnson, Boris, 312 Journal of the Society of Industrial Chemistry, 269 Kase, Mayu, 23 Kawashima Tatsuhiko, 326, 327 killer bees, 9–10 King, Clive, The 22 Letters, 78–79 Korea, Republic of: automobile production, 115, 118; fertility rates, 1, 220–22, 221, and early printing, 65–66 Krishnavedala, 34, 35 Kulmun, Katri, 312 Labour Party, 281 Lake Turkana, Kenya, 264 Lancet, 226 Larkin, Philip, 208 Lent, Jeremy, 265–66 Leonardo da Vinci, 77 life expectancy, 4, 320–22, 321, 339n5 Liles, Fred, 299, 301, 365n26 Lind, Dara, 154 Lindberg, Staffan, 276–77 Lindzen, Richard, 237 Living Plant Index (LPI), 299, 300 living standards, 242–47, 245 loans.

Global Carbon Project, Global Fossil CO2 Emissions, 1960–Projected 2018, accessed 4 September 2019, https://www.icos-cp.eu/sites/default/files/inline-images/s09_FossilFuel_and_Cement_emissions_1959.png. 17. ICOS, “Global Carbon Budget 2018.” 18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Preindustrial evels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty,” 8 October 2018, https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf. CHAPTER 6. Temperature Epigraph: Fiona Harvey, “Sharp Rise in Arctic Temperatures Now Inevitable—UN,” Guardian, 13 March 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/13/arctic-temperature-rises-must-be-urgently-tackled-warns-un, referring in turn to United Nations Environment Programme, “Temperature Rise Is Now ‘Locked-In’ for the Coming Decades in the Arctic,” http://www.grida.no/publications/431 (accessed 12 October 2019). 1.

Tekie Tesfamichael, Bonnie Jacobs, Neil Tabor, Lauren Michel, Ellen Currano, Mulugeta Feseha, Richard Barclay, John Kappelman, and Mark Schmitz, “Settling the Issue of ‘Decoupling’ between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature: Reconstructions across the Warming Paleogene-Neogene Divide,” Geology 45, no. 11 (2017): 999–1002, https://doi.org/10.1130/G39048.1. 3. IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-spm-1.pdf. 4. “Thermometer,” Science Museum, 2017, accessed 18 September 2019, http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/broughttolife/techniques/thermometer. 5.NASA explainsthat it uses “a lowess smooth, i.e. a non-parametric regression analysis that relies on a k-nearest-neighbor model.


pages: 879 words: 233,093

The Empathic Civilization: The Race to Global Consciousness in a World in Crisis by Jeremy Rifkin

agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, animal electricity, back-to-the-land, British Empire, carbon footprint, collaborative economy, death of newspapers, delayed gratification, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, feminist movement, global village, hedonic treadmill, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Mahatma Gandhi, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, Nelson Mandela, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, off grid, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, scientific worldview, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, social intelligence, supply-chain management, surplus humans, the medium is the message, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, working poor, World Values Survey

June 5, 2003. 20 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 3: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 254. 21 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 376. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

February 2 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. p. 12 www.ipcc.ch/ 10 Stainforth, D. A., T. Alna, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Fauli, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, S. Knight, A. Martin, J. M. Murphy, C. Piani, D. Sexton, L. A. Smith, R. A. Spicer, A. J. Thorpe, and M. R. Allen. “Uncertainty in Predictions of the Climate Response to Rising Levels of Greenhouse Gases.” Nature. Vol. 433. No. 27. 2005. 11 Bemstein, Lenny, et al. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf 12 Whitty, Julia. “By the End of the Century Half of All Species Will Be Gone.

October 20, 2006. 2 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policy Makers: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 2. 3 Ibid. p. 3. 4 Ibid. 5 Ibid. p. 5. 6 “Why Build Green? ” U.S. Building Council. 2008. 7 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Livestock’s Long Shadow—Environmental Issues and Options, 2006. p. 272. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/A0701E07.pdf 8 Ibid. 9 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. February 2 2007.


pages: 279 words: 87,910

How Much Is Enough?: Money and the Good Life by Robert Skidelsky, Edward Skidelsky

"Robert Solow", banking crisis, basic income, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Bonfire of the Vanities, call centre, creative destruction, critique of consumerism, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, death of newspapers, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, happiness index / gross national happiness, Herbert Marcuse, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, market clearing, market fundamentalism, Paul Samuelson, profit motive, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, union organizing, University of East Anglia, Veblen good, wage slave, wealth creators, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

Climatology is a young field, in which much remains uncertain and disputed. It is also fiercely politicized, with powerful commercial and bureaucratic interests on either side of the debate. Not even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s chief assembly of climate scientists, is entirely above suspicion. “There remains a risk,” claims a 2005 House of Lords report on climate change, “that IPCC has become a ‘knowledge monopoly’ in some respects, unwilling to listen to those who do not pursue the consensus line.”7 Faced with this barrage of accusation and counter-accusation, the best we can do as non-scientists is to accept the majority view, which is that global warming is indeed mainly the result of human activity.

Tim Jackson, Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (London: Earthscan, 2009). 7. House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs, The Economics of Climate Change (London: MMSO, 2005), p. 58. 8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), Working Panel 1, Technical Summary, p. 79. 9. K. R. Popper, The Poverty of Historicism (London: Routledge, 1961), pp. v–vi. 10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Working Panel 2, ch. 3, p. 154. 11. Quoted in Mike Hulme, “Chaotic world of climate truth,” 2006, BBC News website, 2006, news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6115644.stm (accessed November 9, 2011). news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6115644.stm (accessed September 9, 2011). 12.

Forecasting is a hazardous business, especially in fields as complex and ill-understood as this. That does not prevent people trying though. The IPCC has been putting out estimates of the costs of global warming since 1990. These estimates are generated on powerful computers and stretch decades into the future. They radiate technocratic authority. But how much can they really tell us? The IPCC’s models are based on long-term projections not only of climate but of population, economic growth and technological change, all highly uncertain. Compound these uncertainties, and you have what the IPCC itself calls a “cascade of uncertainty.”8 This seems a weak basis on which to adopt measures that will certainly have a drastic effect on our standard of living.


pages: 426 words: 118,913

Green Philosophy: How to Think Seriously About the Planet by Roger Scruton

"Robert Solow", barriers to entry, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, corporate social responsibility, demand response, edge city, endowment effect, energy security, Exxon Valdez, failed state, food miles, garden city movement, Garrett Hardin, ghettoisation, happiness index / gross national happiness, Herbert Marcuse, Howard Zinn, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Kenneth Arrow, knowledge economy, market friction, Martin Wolf, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, New Urbanism, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, rent-seeking, Ronald Coase, Sam Peltzman, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the market place, Thomas Malthus, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, University of East Anglia, urban planning, urban sprawl, Vilfredo Pareto, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

Lynas’s book is genuinely scary, and readers come away from it in fear and trembling. Published in 2007 it has already had a profound impact on the debate. Just where the ‘six degree’ prophecy originated is a matter of doubt, though it is aired here and there in the first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an organization established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. In any case, the ‘six degree’ mantra is now regularly cited by the radical campaigning groups, and whether or not Lynas is responsible for this, he has certainly provided a vivid and alarming picture of what it might mean.

., ref1 Houghton, Sir John, ref1 Howard, Sir Ebenezer, ref1, ref2 Hudson River painters, ref1, ref2, ref3 Hudson, Kimberly, ref1 Hulme, Mick, ref1n, ref2n Hume, David, ref1 Hungary, ref1 Hunter-gatherers, ref1, ref2, ref3 Hunter, Alexander, ref1 Hunter, Sir Robert, ref1 hunting, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6f Hussein, Saddam, ref1 Husserl, Edmund, ref1, ref2 Huxley, Aldous, ref1 Iceland, ref1, ref2 immigration, ref1 incentives, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7, ref8 India, ref1, ref2 Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQ), ref1f individualism, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 Industrial Revolution, ref1, ref2, ref3 inheritance, ref1, ref2 Inshaw, David, ref1 instrumental values, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 instrumentalization, ref1, ref2 inter-generational justice, ref1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ref1f, ref2, ref3 International Fund for Animal Welfare, ref1, ref2, ref3 international law, ref1 internationalism, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 intrinsic values, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6 Inuit (people), ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 Iragaray, Luce, ref1 Ishido, Allen, ref1 Islamic society, ref1, ref2, ref3 Italy, ref1, ref2 Jacobins, ref1 Jacobs, Jane, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 Jacoby, Henry D., ref1n Jamieson, Dale, ref1n Japan, ref1 Jean Paul (Johann Paul Friedrich Richter), ref1 Jefferies, Richard, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 Jefferson, Thomas, ref1, ref2, ref3 Jenkins, Dame Jennifer, ref1n Jenkins, Sir Simon, ref1n Joisten, Karen, ref1, ref2 Jonas, Hans, ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7, ref8, ref9, ref10 Jones, Laura, ref1n Joyce, James, ref1 justice, ref1, ref2, ref3 Kahneman, Daniel, ref1n Kant, Immanuel, ref1n, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5n, ref6, ref7f Kaufmann, Robert K., ref1n Keeley, J.

Solomon, Lawrence, The Deniers: The World-Renowned Scientists Who Stood Up Against Global Warming Hysteria, Political Persecution, and Fraud – and Those Who are Too Fearful to Do So, Minneapolis, Richard Vigilante, 2008. Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., eds., Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2007. Spaemann, Robert, ‘Technische Eingriffe in die Natur als Problem der politischen Ethik’, in Birnbacher, ed. Spaemann, Robert, tr. Oliver O’Donovan, Persons: The Difference between Someone and Something, Oxford University Press, 2006. Spencer, Roy W., Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor, New York, Encounter, 2008.


pages: 407 words: 108,030

How to Talk to a Science Denier: Conversations With Flat Earthers, Climate Deniers, and Others Who Defy Reason by Lee McIntyre

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Alfred Russel Wallace, Boris Johnson, Climategate, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, coronavirus, correlation does not imply causation, Covid-19, COVID-19, different worldview, disinformation, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, Eratosthenes, experimental subject, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Mark Zuckerberg, obamacare, Richard Feynman, scientific mainstream, selection bias, sovereign wealth fund, stem cell, Steven Levy, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, Upton Sinclair, WikiLeaks

In an earlier book, I explored the question of whether we now live in a “post-truth” era, where facts and even reality itself are up for grabs … and what the consequences of that might be.1 What I found was that the roots of today’s “reality denial” go straight back to the problem of “science denial,” which has been festering in this country since the 1950s, when the big tobacco companies hired a public relations expert to help them figure out how to fight the science that said smoking was linked to lung cancer.2 This scheme provided a blueprint for how to wage a successful campaign of misinformation against whatever topic one liked—evolution, vaccines, climate change—with the result that we now live in a society where two people can look at the same inauguration photograph and come to opposite conclusions about how many people were in attendance.3 The political mess in Washington will be with us for a while. But the fallout for science is already an emergency. A recent report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that we have reached a dangerous tipping point.4 The effects of global warming are happening much faster than expected, and many countries have already missed their targets for the Paris Climate Agreement. The polar ice cap could be gone by 2030; the coral reefs could disappear by 2040; sea levels in New York and Boston could rise by as much as five feet before the end of the century.5 A few years back, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “if we do not change course by 2020, we risk missing the point where we can avoid runaway climate change.”6 Meanwhile, as of this writing, the climate-denier-in-chief in the White House continues to promote the fantasy that climate scientists have a “political agenda” and that even if climate change is happening, it is not provably “man-made” and could “very well go back.”7 Unfortunately, millions agree with him.

See also Science comprehension thesis (SCT) Insistence that science must be perfect cafeteria skepticism and, 38, 44, 50 climate change denial and, 44–45, 92 COVID-19 and, 165 Flat Earthers and, 11–12, 44 GMO resistance and, 134 science denial, 33, 43–45 theory of evolution and, 44 uncertainty of science and, 43 use of term, 33, 43–45 Intelligent design, 44, 54, 118, 121 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), xii, 81, 82, 86, 115, 117, 119 International Space Station, 195n37 Kahan, Dan, 50–52, 61, 66, 71, 122 Kaplan, Jonas, 201n50 Klein, Ezra, 52 Know-It-All Society (Lynch), 50, 57, 203n75 Koch, Charles and David, 87, 88, 90 Kochland (Leonard), 87, 88, 90 Krimsky, Sheldon, 134–136, 137–138 Kuklinski, James, 59–60, 62, 67, 70, 77, 204n3, 204n4 Landrum, Ashley, 4, 122, 194n31 Leonard, Christopher, 87, 88, 90 Lewandowsky, Stephan on conspiracy theories, 78, 133, 157 five reasoning errors of science denial, 33, 198n20 on partisanship, 49, 122, 154, 155–160 on scientific consensus, 172 Liberal science denial, 123–125, 226n22, 226n25, 226n26, 226n28 Lindsay, James, 55, 72, 80, 140, 148 Lung cancer, 36, 40, 43, 46, 90, 179, 232n75 Lynas, Mark, 129–130 Lynch, Michael Patrick, 50, 57, 203n75 Macron, Emmanuel, 82 Maldives, the, 92–102, 219n69, 219n72 Mason, Lilliana, 53, 66, 121 Matrix, The (Wachowskis, dirs.), 5, 25, 29 Mayer, Jane, 87–88, 90, 111, 118 Mbeki, Thabo, 163, 233n82 McKee, Martin, 33 Mead, Alex, 96–101 Merchants of Doubt (Oreskes and Conway), 46, 216n42 Misinformation climate change denial and, 90–91, 116 Facebook and, 168, 169, 173, 242n33 misinformation research, 59–62, 63 research on challenging science denial, 59–64 social media amplification of, 77–78 “Misinformation and the Currency of Democratic Citizenship” (Kuklinski et al.), 59–60, 62, 67, 70, 77, 204n3, 204n4 Monbiot, George, 131 Monsanto, 127–128, 132, 133, 133–134, 143–144, 149, 228n34 Mooney, Chris, 90, 105, 123–124, 225n18 Morano, Marc, 217n55 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) climate change denial and, xv, 75, 83 , 86 Flat Earthers and, 3, 5–6, 18, 25 International Space Station and, 195n37 Nero (emperor), 37 Nichols, Tom, 40–41, 48–49 9/11 truthers, 4, 12, 14, 18, 24, 25, 26, 37 Ninehouser, David and Erin, 106–112 Nuccitelli, Dana, 86, 119 Nyhan, Brendan, 62–63, 64–66, 67 Oberauer, Klaus, 157-160 Oliver, Eric, 36–37 Oreskes, Naomi, 46, 85, 90, 216n42 Pacala, Stephen, 82 Panic Virus, The (Mnookin), 123, 124–125 Paris Climate Agreement, 81, 83, 85, 118, 183, 211n3 Parkland school shootings, 12, 22–23, 37 Partisanship anti-vaxxers and, 226n22, 226n25, 226n26, 226n28 backfire effect and, xii, 62–64, 67–68 challenging science denial and, 62–64 changing minds of partisans, 59–60, 62, 67, 70, 77, 204n3, 204n4 climate change denial and, 49, 118–119, 123, 157 conspiracy theories and, 49 conversion discourse and, 76, 209n50 COVID-19 denial and, 165–166, 167–169, 172–173, 174–175, 177 disinformation and, 165–168, 183–185 identity vs. ideology, 51–53, 66, 121 liberal science denial, 123–125, 223n5, 226n22, 226n25, 226n26, 226n28 moral framing and, 119 political identity and, 121–124, 204n4 psychological motivations and, 201n50 reliance on fake experts and, 40, 41–42 science denial and, 121–125 skepticism and, 122 weapons of mass destruction and, 63 welfare spending and, 59–60, 204n4 “People Don’t Vote for What They Want” (Appiah), 53 Personal engagement, xv, 62, 67, 70, 72–73, 79–80, 120, 171, 173.

Years later, it was learned that ExxonMobil knew about the reality of climate change as early as 1977.38 Indeed, in the very definition of hypocrisy, ExxonMobil was making plans to explore new oil fields in the Arctic once the polar ice cap had melted, even while it was ramping up efforts to foment climate change denial.39 It may be hard to remember, but it wasn’t always like this. When global warming first came to public attention in the late 1980s, President George H.W. Bush promised to fight the “greenhouse effect” with the “White House effect.” One result was the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has done so much to raise public awareness about global warming.40 Even as late as 2008, there was still some semblance of bipartisanship: witness a public service announcement on television, where Republican Newt Gingrich and Democrat Nancy Pelosi sat on a couch and promised a unified approach to fight global warming.41 Of course, by then Al Gore was already back in the spotlight with his slide shows, culminating in his 2006 book and film, An Inconvenient Truth.


pages: 573 words: 115,489

Prosperity Without Growth: Foundations for the Economy of Tomorrow by Tim Jackson

"Robert Solow", bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Basel III, basic income, bonus culture, Boris Johnson, business cycle, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, collapse of Lehman Brothers, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, critique of consumerism, David Graeber, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, financial deregulation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial intermediation, full employment, Garrett Hardin, Growth in a Time of Debt, Hans Rosling, Hyman Minsky, impact investing, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invisible hand, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, Kickstarter, laissez-faire capitalism, liberal capitalism, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, means of production, meta-analysis, Money creation, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Naomi Klein, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open economy, paradox of thrift, peak oil, peer-to-peer lending, Philip Mirowski, Post-Keynesian economics, profit motive, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, Richard Thaler, road to serfdom, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, science of happiness, secular stagnation, short selling, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, The Spirit Level, The Theory of the Leisure Class by Thorstein Veblen, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, Tragedy of the Commons, universal basic income, Works Progress Administration, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

Inglehart, Ronald, Roberto Foa, Christopher Peterson and Christian Welzel 2008. ‘Development, freedom and rising happiness: a global perspective (1981–2007)’. Perspectives on Psychological Science 3(4): 264–285. IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contributions of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva: IPCC. ITPOES 2008. The Oil Crunch: Securing the UK’s Energy Future. First Report of the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security. London: ITPOES. Jackson, Andrew and Ben Dyson 2013. Modernising Money: Why Our Monetary System is Broken and How it Can be Fixed.

Its visibility was given a massive boost by the influential Stern review. A former World Bank economist, Nicholas Stern was asked to lead a review of the economics of climate change for the UK Treasury. It is telling that it took an economist commissioned by a government Treasury to alert the world to things climate scientists – most notably the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – had been saying for years. This is partly a testament to the power of economists in the policy world. But the impact of the Stern report was also due to the seductive nature of its message. The review concluded that a small early hit on GDP (perhaps as low as 1 per cent of GDP) would allow us to avoid a much bigger hit (perhaps as high as 20 per cent of GDP) later on.

INDEX Locators in italic refer to figures absolute decoupling 84–6; historical perspectives 89–96, 90, 92, 94, 95; mathematical relationship with relative decoupling 96–101, 111 abundance see opulence accounting errors, decoupling 84, 91 acquisition, instinctive 68 see also symbolic role of goods adaptation: diminishing marginal utility 51, 68; environmental 169; evolutionary 226 advertising, power of 140, 203–4 Africa 73, 75–7; life-expectancy 74; philosophy 227; pursuit of western lifestyles 70; growth 99; relative income effect 58, 75; schooling 78 The Age of Turbulence (Greenspan) 35 ageing populations 44, 81 agriculture 12, 148, 152, 220 Aids/HIV 77 algebra of inequality see inequality; mathematical models alienation: future visions 212, 218–19; geographical community 122–3; role of the state 205; selfishness vs. altruism 137; signals sent by society 131 alternatives: economic 101–2, 139–40, 157–8; hedonism 125–6 see also future visions; post-growth macroeconomics; reform altruism 133–8, 196, 207 amenities see public services/amenities Amish community, North America 128 An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (Smith) 123, 132 angelised growth see green growth animal welfare 220 anonymity/loneliness see alienation anthropological perspectives, consumption 70, 115 anti-consumerism 131 see also intrinsic values anxiety: fear of death 69, 104, 115, 212–15; novelty 116–17, 124, 211 Argentina 58, 78, 78, 80 Aristotle 48, 61 The Art of Happiness (Dalai Lama) 49 arts, Baumol’s cost disease 171–2 assets, stranded 167–8 see also ownership austerity policies xxxiii–xxxv, 189; and financial crisis 24, 42–3; mathematical models 181 Australia 58, 78, 128, 206 authoritarianism 199 autonomy see freedom/autonomy Ayres, Robert 143 backfire effects 111 balance: private interests/common good 208; tradition/innovation 226 Bank for International Settlements 46 bank runs 157 banking system 29–30, 39, 153–7, 208; bonuses 37–8 see also financial crisis; financial system basic entitlements: enterprise as service 142; income 67, 72–9, 74, 75, 76, 78; limits to growth 63–4 see also education; food; health Basu, Sanjay 43 Baumol, William 112, 147, 222, 223; cost disease 170, 171, 172, 173 BBC survey, geographical community 122–3 Becker, Ernest 69 Belk, Russ 70, 114 belonging 212, 219 see also alienation; community; intrinsic values Bentham, Jeremy 55 bereavement, material possessions 114, 214–15 Berger, Peter 70, 214 Berry, Wendell 8 Better Growth, Better Climate (New Climate Economy report) 18 big business/corporations 106–7 biodiversity loss 17, 47, 62, 101 biological perspectives see evolutionary theory; human nature/psyche biophysical boundaries see limits (ecological) Black Monday 46 The Body Economic (Stuckler and Basu) 43 bond markets 30, 157 bonuses, banking 37–8 Bookchin, Murray 122 boom-and-bust cycles 157, 181 Booth, Douglas 117 borrowing behaviour 34, 118–21, 119 see also credit; debt Boulding, Elise 118 Boulding, Kenneth 1, 5, 7 boundaries, biophysical see limits (ecological) bounded capabilities for flourishing 61–5 see also limits (flourishing within) Bowen, William 147 Bowling Alone (Putnam) 122 Brazil 58, 88 breakdown of community see alienation; social stability bubbles, economic 29, 33, 36 Buddhist monasteries, Thailand 128 buen vivir concept, Ecuador xxxi, 6 built-in obsolescence 113, 204, 220 Bush, George 121 business-as-usual model 22, 211; carbon dioxide emissions 101; crisis of commitment 195; financial crisis 32–8; growth 79–83, 99; human nature 131, 136–7; need for reform 55, 57, 59, 101–2, 162, 207–8, 227; throwaway society 113; wellbeing 124 see also financial systems Canada 75, 206, 207 capabilities for flourishing 61–5; circular flow of the economy 113; future visions 218, 219; and income 77; progress measures 50–5, 54; role of material abundance 67–72; and prosperity 49; relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72; role of shame 123–4; role of the state 200 see also limits (flourishing within); wellbeing capital 105, 107–10 see also investment Capital in the 21st Century (Piketty) 33, 176, 177 Capital Institute, USA 155 capitalism 68–9, 80; structures 107–13, 175; types 105–7, 222, 223 car industry, financial crisis 40 carbon dioxide emissions see greenhouse gas emissions caring professions, valuing 130, 147, 207 see also social care Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (Williams) 213 causal path analysis, subjective wellbeing 59 Central Bank 154 central human capabilities 64 see also capabilities for flourishing The Challenge of Affluence (Offer) 194 change see alternatives; future visions; novelty/innovation; post-growth macroeconomics; reform Chicago school of economics 36, 156 children: advertising to 204; labour 62, 154; mortality 74–5, 75, 206 Chile xxxiii, xxxvii, 58, 74, 74, 75, 76 China: decoupling 88; GDP per capita 75; greenhouse gas emissions 91; growth 99; life expectancy 74; philosophy 7; post-financial crisis 45–6; pursuit of western lifestyles 70; relative income effect 58; resource use 94; savings 27; schooling 76 choice, moving beyond consumerism 216–18 see also freedom/autonomy Christian doctrine see religious perspectives chromium, commodity price 13 Cinderella economy 219–21, 224 circular economy 144, 220 circular flow of the economy 107, 113 see also engine of growth citizen’s income 207 see also universal basic income civil unrest see social stability Clean City Law, São Paulo 204 climate change xxxv, 22, 47; critical boundaries 17–20; decoupling 85, 86, 87, 98; fatalism 186; investment needs 152; role of the state 192, 198, 201–2 see also greenhouse gas emissions Climate Change Act (2008), UK 198 clothing see basic entitlements Club of Rome, Limits to Growth report xxxii, xxxiii, 8, 11–16, Cobb, John 54 collectivism 191 commercial bond markets 30, 157 commitment devices/crisis of 192–5, 197 commodity prices: decoupling 88; financial crisis 26; fluctuation/volatility 14, 21; resource constraints 13–14 common good: future visions 218, 219; vs. freedom and autonomy 193–4; vs. private interests 208; role of the state 209 common pool resources 190–2, 198, 199 see also public services/amenities communism 187, 191 community: future visions of 219–20; geographical 122–3; investment 155–6, 204 see also alienation; intrinsic values comparison, social 115, 116, 117 see also relative income effect competition 27, 112; positional 55–61, 58, 71, 72 see also struggle for existence complexity, economic systems 14, 32, 108, 153, 203 compulsive shopping 116 see also consumerism Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (CoP21) 19 conflicted state 197, 201, 209 connectedness, global 91, 227 conspicuous consumption 115 see also language of goods consumer goods see language of goods; material goods consumer sovereignty 196, 198 consumerism 4, 21, 22, 103–4, 113–16; capitalism 105–13, 196; choice 196; engine of growth 104, 108, 120, 161; existential fear of death 69, 212–15; financial crisis 24, 28, 39, 103; moving beyond 216–18; novelty and anxiety 116–17; post-growth economy 166–7; role of the state 192–3, 196, 199, 202–5; status 211; tragedy of 140 see also demand; materialism contemplative dimensions, simplicity 127 contraction and convergence model 206–7 coordinated market economies 27, 106 Copenhagen Accord (2009) 19 copper, commodity prices 13 corporations/big business 106–7 corruption 9, 131, 186, 187, 189 The Cost Disease: Why Computers get Cheaper and Health Care Doesn’t (Baumol) 171, 172 Costa Rica 74, 74, 76 countercyclical spending 181–2, 182, 188 crafts/craft economies 147, 149, 170, 171 creative destruction 104, 112, 113, 116–17 creativity 8, 79; and consumerism 113, 116; future visions 142, 144, 147, 158, 171, 200, 220 see also novelty/innovation credit, private: deflationary forces 44; deregulation 36; financial crisis 26, 27, 27–31, 34, 36, 41; financial system weaknesses 32–3, 37; growth imperative hypothesis 178–80; mortgage loans 28–9; reforms in financial system 157; spending vs. saving behaviour of ordinary people 118–19; and stimulation of growth 36 see also debt (public) credit unions 155–6 crises: of commitment 192–5; financial see financial crisis critical boundaries, biophysical see limits (ecological) Csikszentmihalyi, Mihalyi 127 Cuba: child mortality 75; life expectancy 74, 77, 78, 78; response to economic hardship 79–80; revolution 56; schooling 76 Cushman, Philip 116 Dalai Lama 49, 52 Daly, Herman xxxii, 54, 55, 160, 163, 165 Darwin, Charles 132–3 Das Kapital (Marx) 225 Davidson, Richard 49 Davos World Economic Forum 46 Dawkins, Richard 134–5 de Mandeville, Bernard 131–2, 157 death, denial of 69, 104, 115, 212–15 debt, public-sector 81; deflationary forces 44; economic stability 81; financial crisis 24, 26–32, 27, 37, 41, 42, 81; financial systems 28–32, 153–7; money creation 178–9; post-growth economy 178–9, 223 Debt: The First Five Thousand Years (Graeber) 28 decoupling xix, xx, xxxvii, 21, 84–7; dilemma of growth 211; efficiency measures 84, 86, 87, 88, 95, 104; green growth 163, 163–5; historical perspectives 87–96, 89, 90, 92, 94, 95; need for new economic model 101–2; relationship between relative and absolute 96–101 deep emission and resource cuts 99, 102 deficit spending 41, 43 deflationary forces, post-financial crisis 43–7, 45 degrowth movement 161–3, 177 demand 104, 113–16, 166–7; post-financial crisis 44–5; post-growth economy 162, 164, 166–9, 171–2, 174–5 dematerialisation 102, 143 democratisation, and wellbeing 59 deposit guarantees 35 deregulation 27, 34, 36, 196 desire, role in consumer behaviour 68, 69, 70, 114 destructive materialism 104, 112, 113, 116–17 Deutsche Bank 41 devaluation of currency 30, 45 Dichter, Ernest 114 digital economy 44, 219–20 dilemma of growth xxxi, 66–7, 104, 210; basic entitlements 72–9, 74, 75, 76, 78; decoupling 85, 87, 164; degrowth movement 160–3; economic stability 79–83, 174–6; material abundance 67–72; moving beyond 165, 166, 183–4; role of the state 198 diminishing marginal utility: alternative hedonism 125, 126; wellbeing 51–2, 57, 60, 73, 75–6, 79 disposable incomes 27, 67, 118 distributed ownership 223 Dittmar, Helga 126 domestic debt see credit dopamine 68 Dordogne, mindfulness community 128 double movement of society 198 Douglas, Mary 70 Douthwaite, Richard 178 downshifting 128 driving analogy, managing change 16–17 durability, consumer goods 113, 204, 220 dynamic systems, managing change 16–17 Eastern Europe 76, 122 Easterlin, Richard 56, 57, 59; paradox 56, 58 eco-villages, Findhorn community 128 ecological investment 101, 166–70, 220 see also investment ecological limits see limits (ecological) ecological (ecosystem) services 152, 169, 223 The Ecology of Money (Douthwaite) 178 economic growth see growth economic models see alternatives; business-as-usual model; financial systems; future visions; mathematical models; post-growth macroeconomics economic output see efficiency; productivity ‘Economic possibilities for our grandchildren’ (Keynes) 145 economic stability 22, 154, 157, 161; financial system weaknesses 34, 35, 36, 180; growth 21, 24, 67, 79–83, 174–6, 210; post-growth economy 161–3, 165, 174–6, 208, 219; role of the state 181–3, 195, 198, 199 economic structures: post-growth economy 227; financial system reforms 224; role of the state 205; selfishness 137 see also business-as-usual model; financial systems ecosystem functioning 62–3 see also limits (ecological) ecosystem services 152, 169, 223 Ecuador xxxi, 6 education: Baumol’s cost disease 171, 172; and income 67, 76, 76; investment in 150–1; role of the state 193 see also basic entitlements efficiency measures 84, 86–8, 95, 104, 109–11, 142–3; energy 41, 109–11; growth 111, 211; investment 109, 151; of scale 104 see also labour productivity; relative decoupling Ehrlich, Paul 13, 96 elasticity of substitution, labour and capital 177–8 electricity grid 41, 151, 156 see also energy Elgin, Duane 127 Ellen MacArthur Foundation 144 emissions see greenhouse gas emissions employee ownership 223 employment intensity vs. carbon dioxide emissions 148 see also labour productivity empty self 116, 117 see also consumerism ends above means 159 energy return on investment (EROI) 12, 169 energy services/systems 142: efficiency 41, 109–11; inputs/intensity 87–8, 151; investment 41, 109–10, 151–2; renewable xxxv, 41, 168–9 engine of growth 145; consumerism 104, 108, 161; services 143, 170–4 see also circular flow of the economy enough is enough see limits enterprise as service 140, 141–4, 158 see also novelty/innovation entitlements see basic entitlements entrepreneur as visionary 112 entrepreneurial state 220 Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands 62 environmental quality 12 see also pollution environmentalism 9 EROI (energy return on investment) 12, 169 Essay on the Principle of Population (Malthus) 9–11, 132–3 evolutionary map, human heart 136, 136 evolutionary theory 132–3; common good 193; post-growth economy 226; psychology 133–5; selfishness and altruism 196 exchange values 55, 61 see also gross domestic product existential fear of death 69, 104, 115, 212–15 exponential expansion 1, 11, 20–1, 210 see also growth external debt 32, 42 extinctions/biodiversity loss 17, 47, 62, 101 Eyres, Harry 215 Fable of the Bees (de Mandeville) 131–2 factor inputs 109–10 see also capital; labour; resource use fast food 128 fatalism 186 FCCC (Framework Convention on Climate Change) 92 fear of death, existential 69, 104, 115, 212–15 feedback loops 16–17 financial crisis (2008) 6, 23–5, 32, 77, 103; causes and culpability 25–8; financial system weaknesses 32–7, 108; Keynesianism 37–43, 188; nationalisation of financial sector 188; need for financial reforms 175; role of debt 24, 26–32, 27, 81, 179; role of state 191; slowing of growth 43–7, 45; spending vs. saving behaviour of ordinary people 118–21, 119; types/definitions of capitalism 106; youth unemployment 144–5 financial systems: common pool resources 192; debt-based/role of debt 28–32, 153–7; post-growth economy 179, 208; systemic weaknesses 32–7; and wellbeing 47 see also banking system; business-as-usual model; financial crisis; reform Findhorn community 128 finite limits of planet see limits (ecological) Fisher, Irving 156, 157 fishing rights 22 flourishing see capabilities for flourishing; limits; wellbeing flow states 127 Flynt, Larry 40 food 67 see also basic entitlements Ford, Henry 154 forestry/forests 22, 192 Forrester, Jay 11 fossil fuels 11, 20 see also oil Foucault, Michel 197 fracking 14, 15 Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) 92 France: GDP per capita 58, 75, 76; inequality 206; life-expectancy 74; mindfulness community 128; working hours 145 free market 106: financial crisis 35, 36, 37, 38, 39; ideological controversy/conflict 186–7, 188 freedom/autonomy: vs. common good 193–4; consumer 22, 68–9; language of goods 212; personal choices for improvement 216–18; wellbeing 49, 59, 62 see also individualism Friedman, Benjamin 176 Friedman, Milton 36, 156, 157 frugality 118–20, 127–9, 215–16 fun (more fun with less stuff) 129, 217 future visions 2, 158, 217–21; community banking 155–6; dilemma of growth 211; enterprise as service 140, 141–4, 147–8, 158; entrepreneur as visionary 112; financial crisis as opportunity 25; and growth 165–6; investment 22, 101–2, 140, 149–53, 158, 169, 208; money as social good 140, 153–7, 158; processes of change 185; role of the state 198, 199, 203; timescales for change 16–17; work as participation 140, 144–9, 148, 158 see also alternatives; post-growth macroeconomics; reform Gandhi, Mahatma 127 GDP see gross domestic product gene, selfish 134–5 Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) 54, 54 geographical community 122–3 Germany xxxi; Federal Ministry of Finance 224–5; inequality 206; relative income effect 58; trade balance 31; work as participation 146 Glass Steagal Act 35 Global Commodity Price Index (1992–2015) 13 global corporations 106–7 global economy 98: culture 70; decoupling 86–8, 91, 93–5, 95, 97, 98, 100; exponential expansion 20–1; inequality 4, 5–6; interconnectedness 91, 227; post-financial crisis slowing of growth 45 Global Research report (HSBC) 41 global warming see climate change Godley, Wynne 179 Goldman Sachs 37 good life 3, 6; moral dimension 63, 104; wellbeing 48, 50 goods see language of goods; material goods; symbolic role of goods Gordon, Robert 44 governance 22, 185–6; commons 190–2; crisis of commitment 192–5, 197; economic stability 34, 35; establishing limits 200–8, 206; growth 195–9; ideological controversy/conflict 186–9; moving towards change 197–200, 220–1; post-growth economy 181–3, 182; power of corporations 106; for prosperity 209; signals 130 government as household metaphor 30, 42 governmentality 197, 198 GPI (Genuine Progress Indicator) 54, 54 Graeber, David 28 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act 35 Great Depression 39–40 Greece: austerity xxxiii–xxxiv, xxxvii, 43; energy inputs 88; financial crisis 28, 30, 31, 77; life expectancy 74; schooling 76; relative income effect 58; youth unemployment 144 Green Economy initiative 41 green: growth xxxvii, 18, 85, 153, 166, 170; investment 41 Green New Deal, UNEP 40–1, 152, 188 greenhouse gas emissions 18, 85, 86, 91, 92; absolute decoupling 89–92, 90, 92, 98–101, 100; dilemma of growth 210–11; vs. employment intensity 148; future visions 142, 151, 201–2, 220; Kyoto Protocol 18, 90; reduction targets 19–20; relative decoupling 87, 88, 89, 93, 98–101, 100 see also climate change Greenspan, Alan 35 gross domestic product (GDP) per capita 3–5, 15, 54; climate change 18; decoupling 85, 93, 94; financial crisis 27, 28, 32; green growth 163–5; life expectancy 74, 75, 78; as measure of prosperity 3–4, 5, 53–5, 54, 60–1; post-financial crisis 43, 44; post-growth economy 207; schooling 76; wellbeing 55–61, 58 see also income growth xxxvii; capitalism 105; credit 36, 178–80; decoupling 85, 96–101; economic stability 21, 24, 67, 80, 210; financial crisis 37, 38; future visions 209, 223, 224; inequality 177; labour productivity 111; moving beyond 165, 166; novelty 112; ownership 105; post-financial crisis slowing 43–7, 45; prosperity as 3–7, 23, 66; role of the state 195–9; sustainable investment 166–70; wellbeing 59–60; as zero sum game 57 see also dilemma of growth; engine of growth; green growth; limits to growth; post-growth macroeconomy growth imperative hypothesis 37, 174, 175, 177–80, 183 habit formation, acquisition as 68 Hall, Peter 106, 188 Hamilton, William 134 Hansen, James 17 happiness see wellbeing/happiness Happiness (Layard) 55 Hardin, Garrett 190–1 Harvey, David 189, 192 Hayek, Friedrich 187, 189, 191 health: Baumol’s cost disease 171, 172; inequality 72–3, 205–6, 206; investment 150–1; and material abundance 67, 68; personal choices for improvement 217; response to economic hardship 80; role of the state 193 see also basic entitlements Heath, Edward 66, 82 hedonism 120, 137, 196; alternatives 125–6 Hirsch, Fred xxxii–xxxiii historical perspectives: absolute decoupling 86, 89–96, 90, 92, 94, 95; relative decoupling 86, 87–9, 89 Holdren, John 96 holistic solutions, post-growth economy 175 household finances: house purchases 28–9; spending vs. saving behaviour 118–20, 119 see also credit household metaphor, government as 30, 42 HSBC Global Research report 41 human capabilities see capabilities for flourishing human happiness see wellbeing/happiness human nature/psyche 3, 132–5, 138; acquisition 68; alternative hedonism 125; evolutionary map of human heart 136, 136; intrinsic values 131; meaning/purpose 49–50; novelty/innovation 116; selfishness vs. altruism 133–8; short-termism/living for today 194; spending vs. saving behaviour 34, 118–21, 119; symbolic role of goods 69 see also intrinsic values human rights see basic entitlements humanitarian perspectives: financial crisis 24; growth 79; inequality 5, 52, 53 see also intrinsic values hyperbolic discounting 194 hyperindividualism 226 see also individualism hyper-materialisation 140, 157 I Ching (Chinese Book of Changes) 7 Iceland: financial crisis 28; life expectancy 74, 75; relative income effect 56; response to economic hardship 79–80; schooling 76; sovereign money system 157 identity construction 52, 69, 115, 116, 212, 219 IEA (International Energy Agency) 14, 152 IMF (International Monetary Fund) 45, 156–7 immaterial goods 139–40 see also intrinsic values; meaning/purpose immortality, symbolic role of goods 69, 104, 115, 212–14 inclusive growth see inequality; smart growth income 3, 4, 5, 66, 124; basic entitlements 72–9, 74, 75, 76, 78; child mortality 74–5, 75; decoupling 96; economic stability 82; education 76; life expectancy 72, 73, 74, 77–9, 78; poor nations 67; relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72; tax revenues 81 see also gross domestic product INDCs (intended nationally determined commitments) 19 India: decoupling 99; growth 99; life expectancy 74, 75; philosophy 127; pursuit of western lifestyles 70; savings 27; schooling 76 indicators of environmental quality 96 see also biodiversity; greenhouse gas emissions; pollution; resource use individualism 136, 226; progressive state 194–7, 199, 200, 203, 207 see also freedom/autonomy industrial development 12 see also technological advances inequality 22, 67; basic entitlements 72; child mortality 75, 75; credible alternatives 219, 224; deflationary forces 44; fatalism 186; financial crisis 24; global 4, 5–6, 99, 100; financial system weaknesses 32–3; post-growth economy 174, 176–8; role of the state 198, 205–7, 206; selfishness vs. altruism 137; symbolic role of goods 71; wellbeing 47, 104 see also poverty infant mortality rates 72, 75 inflation 26, 30, 110, 157, 167 infrastructure, civic 150–1 Inglehart, Ronald 58, 59 innovation see novelty/innovation; technological advances inputs 80–1 see also capital; labour productivity; resource use Inside Job documentary film 26 instant gratification 50, 61 instinctive acquisition 68 Institute for Fiscal Studies 81 Institute for Local Self-Reliance 204 institutional structures 130 see also economic structures; governance intended nationally determined commitments (INDCs) 19 intensity factor, technological 96, 97 see also technological advances intentional communities 127–9 interconnectedness, global 91, 227 interest payments/rates 39, 43, 110; financial crisis 29, 30, 33, 39; post-growth economy 178–80 see also credit; debt Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 18, 19, 201–2 International Energy Agency (IEA) 14, 152 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 45, 156–7 intrinsic values 126–31, 135–6, 212; role of the state 199, 200 see also belonging; community; meaning/purpose; simplicity/frugality investment 107–10, 108; ecological/sustainable 101, 152, 153, 166–70, 220; and innovation 112; loans 29; future visions 22, 101–2, 140, 149–53, 158, 169, 208, 220; and savings 108; social 155, 156, 189, 193, 208, 220–3 invisible hand metaphor 132, 133, 187 IPAT equation, relative and absolute decoupling 96 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 18, 19, 201–2 Ireland 28; inequality 206; life expectancy 74, 75; schooling 76; wellbeing 58 iron cage of consumerism see consumerism iron ore 94 James, Oliver 205 James, William 68 Japan: equality 206; financial crisis 27, 45; life expectancy 74, 76, 79; relative income effect 56, 58; resource use 93; response to economic hardship 79–80 Jefferson, Thomas 185 Jobs, Steve 210 Johnson, Boris 120–1 Kahneman, Daniel 60 Kasser, Tim 126 keeping up with the Joneses 115, 116, 117 see also relative income effect Kennedy, Robert 48, 53 Keynes, John Maynard/Keynesianism 23, 34, 120, 174, 181–3, 187–8; financial crisis 37–43; financial system reforms 157; part-time working 145; steady state economy 159, 162 King, Alexander 11 Krugman, Paul 39, 85, 86, 102 Kyoto Protocol (1992) 18, 90 labour: child 62, 154; costs 110; division of 158; elasticity of substitution 177, 178; intensity 109, 148, 208; mobility 123; production inputs 80, 109; structures of capitalism 107 labour productivity 80–1, 109–11; Baumol’s cost disease 170–2; and economic growth 111; future visions 220, 224; investment as commitment 150; need for investment 109; post-growth economy 175, 208; services as engine of growth 170; sustainable investment 166, 170; trade off with resource use 110; work-sharing 145, 146, 147, 148, 148, 149 Lahr, Christin 224–5 laissez-faire capitalism 187, 195, 196 see also free market Lakoff, George 30 language of goods 212; material footprint of 139–40; signalling of social status 71; and wellbeing 124 see also consumerism; material goods; symbolic role of goods Layard, Richard 55 leadership, political 199 see also governance Lebow, Victor 120 Lehman Brothers, bankruptcy 23, 25, 26, 118 leisure economy 204 liberal market economies 106, 107; financial crisis 27, 35–6 life expectancy: and income 72, 73, 74, 77–9, 78; inequality 206; response to economic hardship 80 see also basic entitlements life-satisfaction 73; inequality 205; relative income effect 55–61, 58 see also wellbeing/happiness limits, ecological 3, 4, 7, 11, 12, 20–2; climate change 17–20; decoupling 86; financial crisis 23–4; growth 21, 165, 210; post-growth economy 201–2, 226–7; role of the state 198, 200–2, 206–7; and social boundaries 141; wellbeing 62–63, 185 limits, flourishing within 61–5, 185; alternative hedonism 125–6; intrinsic values 127–31; moving towards 215, 218, 219, 221; paradox of materialism 121–23; prosperity 67–72, 113, 212; role of the state 201–2, 205; selfishness 131–8; shame 123–4; spending vs. saving behaviour 118–21, 119 see also sustainable prosperity limits to growth: confronting 7–8; exceeding 20–2; wellbeing 62–3 Limits to Growth report (Club of Rome) xxxii, xxxiii, 8, 11–16 ‘The Living Standard’ essay (Sen) 50, 123–4 living standards 82 see also prosperity Lloyd, William Forster 190 loans 154; community investment 155–6; financial system weaknesses 34 see also credit; debt London School of Economics 25 loneliness 123, 137 see also alienation long-term: investments 222; social good 219 long-term wellbeing vs. short-term pleasures 194, 197 longevity see life expectancy love 212 see also intrinsic values low-carbon transition 19, 220 LowGrow model for the Canadian economy 175 MacArthur Foundation 144 McCracken, Grant 115 Malthus, Thomas Robert 9–11, 132–3, 190 market economies: coordinated 27, 106; liberal 27, 35–6, 106, 107 market liberalism 106, 107; financial crisis 27, 35–6; wellbeing 47 marketing 140, 203–4 Marmot review, health inequality in the UK 72 Marx, Karl/Marxism 9, 189, 192, 225 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) 11, 12, 15 material abundance see opulence material goods 68–9; identity 52; language of 139–40; and wellbeing 47, 48, 49, 51, 65, 126 see also symbolic role of goods material inputs see resource use materialism: and fear of death 69, 104, 115, 212–15; and intrinsic values 127–31; paradox of 121–3; price of 126; and religion 115; values 126, 135–6 see also consumerism mathematical models/simulations 132; austerity policies 181; countercyclical spending 181–2, 182; decoupling 84, 91, 96–101; inequality 176–8; post-growth economy 164; stock-flow consistent 179–80 Mawdsley, Emma 70 Mazzucato, Mariana 193, 220 MDG (Millennium Development Goals) 74–5 Meadows, Dennis and Donella 11, 12, 15, 16 meaning/purpose 2, 8, 22; beyond material goods 212–16; consumerism 69, 203, 215; intrinsic values 127–31; moving towards 218–20; wellbeing 49, 52, 60, 121–2; work 144, 146 see also intrinsic values means and ends 159 mental health: inequality 206; meaning/purpose 213 metaphors: government as household 30, 42; invisible hand 132, 133, 187 Middle East, energy inputs 88 Miliband, Ed 199 Mill, John Stuart 125, 159, 160, 174 Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 74–5 mindfulness 128 Minsky, Hyman 34, 35, 40, 182, 208 MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) 11, 12, 15 mixed economies 106 mobility of labour, loneliness index 123 Monbiot, George 84, 85, 86, 91 money: creation 154, 157, 178–9; and prosperity 5; as social good 140, 153–7, 158 see also financial systems monopoly power, corporations 106–7 The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth (Friedman) 82, 176 moral dimensions, good life 63 see also intrinsic values moral hazards, separation of risk from reward 35 ‘more fun with less stuff’ 129, 217 mortality fears 69, 104, 115, 212–15 mortality rates, and income 74, 74–6, 75 mortgage loans 28–9, 35 multinational corporations 106–7 national debt see debt, public-sector nationalisation 191; financial crisis 38, 188 natural selection 132–3 see also struggle for existence nature, rights of 6–7 negative emissions 98–9 negative feedback loops 16–17 Netherlands 58, 62, 206, 207 neuroscientific perspectives: flourishing 68, 69; human behaviour 134 New Climate Economy report Better Growth, Better Climate 18 New Deal, USA 39 New Economics Foundation 175 nickel, commodity prices 13 9/11 terrorist attacks (2001) 121 Nordhaus, William 171, 172–3 North America 128, 155 see also Canada; United States Norway: advertising 204; inequality 206; investment as commitment 151–2; life expectancy 74; relative income effect 58; schooling 76 novelty/innovation 104, 108, 113; and anxiety 116–17, 124, 211; crisis of commitment 195; dilemma of growth 211; human psyche 135–6, 136, 137; investment 150, 166, 168; post-growth economy 226; role of the state 196, 197, 199; as service 140, 141–4, 158; symbolic role of goods 114–16, 213 see also technological advances Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (Thaler and Sunstein) 194–5 Nussbaum, Martha 64 nutrient loading, critical boundaries 17 nutrition 67 see also basic entitlements obesity 72, 78, 206 obsolescence, built in 113, 204, 220 oceans: acidification 17; common pool resources 192 Offer, Avner 57, 61, 71, 194, 195 oil prices 14, 21; decoupling 88; financial crisis 26; resource constraints 15 oligarchic capitalism 106, 107 opulence 50–1, 52, 67–72 original sin 9, 131 Ostrom, Elinor and Vincent 190, 191 output see efficiency; gross domestic product; productivity ownership: and expansion 105; private vs. public 9, 105, 191, 219, 223; new models 223–4; types/definitions of capitalism 105–7 Oxfam 141 paradoxes: materialism 121–3; thrift 120 Paris Agreement 19, 101, 201 participation in society 61, 114, 122, 129, 137; future visions 200, 205, 218, 219, 225; work as 140–9, 148, 157, 158 see also social inclusion part-time working 145, 146, 149, 175 Peccei, Aurelio 11 Perez, Carlota 112 performing arts, Baumol’s cost disease 171–2 personal choice 216–18 see also freedom/autonomy personal property 189, 191 Pickett, Kate 71, 205–6 Piketty, Thomas 33, 176, 177 planetary boundaries see limits (ecological) planning for change 17 pleasure 60–1 see also wellbeing/happiness Plum Village mindfulness community 128 Polanyi, Karl 198 policy see governance political leadership 199 see also governance Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts 41 pollution 12, 21, 53, 95–6, 143 polycentric governance 191, 192 Poor Laws 10 poor nations see poverty population increase 3, 12, 63, 96, 97, 190; Malthus on 9–11, 132–3 porn industry 40 Portugal 28, 58, 88, 206 positional competition 55–61, 58, 71, 72 see also social comparison positive feedback loops 16–17 post-growth capitalism 224 post-growth macroeconomics 159–60, 183–4, 221; credit 178–80; degrowth movement 161–3; economic stability 174–6; green growth 163–5; inequality 176–8; role of state 181–3, 182, 200–8, 206; services 170–4; sustainable investment 166–70 see also alternatives; future visions; reform poverty 4, 5–6, 216; basic entitlements 72; flourishing within limits 212; life expectancy 74, 74; need for new economic model 101; symbolic role of goods 70; wellbeing 48, 59–60, 61, 67 see also inequality; relative income effect power politics 200 predator–prey analogy 103–4, 117 private credit see credit private vs. public: common good 208; ownership 9, 105, 191, 219, 223; salaries 130 privatisation 191, 219 product lifetimes, obsolescence 113, 204, 220 production: inputs 80–1; ownership 191, 219, 223 productivity: investment 109, 167, 168, 169; post-growth economy 224; services as engine of growth 171, 172, 173; targets 147; trap 175 see also efficiency measures; labour productivity; resource productivity profits: definitions of capitalism 105; dilemma of growth 211; efficiency measures 87; investment 109; motive 104; post-growth economy 224; and wages 175–8 progress 2, 50–5, 54 see also novelty/innovation; technological advances progressive sector, Baumol’s cost disease 171 progressive state 185, 220–2; contested 186–9; countering consumerism 202–5; equality measures 205–7, 206; governance of the commons 190–2; governance as commitment device 192–5; governmentality of growth 195–7; limit-setting 201–2; moving towards 197–200; post-growth macroeconomics 207–8, 224; prosperity 209 prosocial behaviour 198 see also social contract prosperity 1–3, 22, 121; capabilities for flourishing 61–5; and growth 3–7, 23, 66, 80, 160; and income 3–4, 5, 66–7; limits of 67–72, 113, 212; materialistic vision 137; progress measures 50–5, 54; relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72; social perspectives 2, 22, 48–9; state roles 209 see also capabilities for flourishing; post-growth macroeconomics; sustainable prosperity; wellbeing prudence, financial 120, 195, 221; financial crisis 33, 34, 35 public sector spending: austerity policies 189; countercyclical spending strategy 181–2, 182; welfare economy 169 public services/amenities: common pool resources 190–2, 198, 199; future visions 204, 218–20; investment 155–6, 204; ownership 223 see also private vs. public; service-based economies public transport 41, 129, 193, 217 purpose see meaning/purpose Putnam, Robert 122 psyche, human see human nature/psyche quality, environmental 12 see also pollution quality of life: enterprise as service 142; inequality 206; sustainable 128 quality to throughput ratios 113 quantitative easing 43 Queen Elizabeth II 25, 32, 34, 37 quiet revolution 127–31 Raworth, Kate 141 Reagan, Ronald 8 rebound phenomenon 111 recession 23–4, 28, 81, 161–3 see also financial crisis recreation/leisure industries 143 recycling 129 redistribution of wealth 52 see also inequality reforms 182–3, 222; economic structures 224; and financial crisis 103; financial systems 156–8, 180 see also alternatives; future visions; post-growth economy relative decoupling 84–5, 86; historical perspectives 87–9, 89; relationship with absolute decoupling 96–101, 111 relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72 see also social comparison religious perspectives 9–10, 214–15; materialism as alternative to religion 115; original sin 9, 131; wellbeing 48, 49 see also existential fear of death renewable energy xxxv, 41, 168–169 repair/renovation 172, 220 resource constraints 3, 7, 8, 11–15, 47 resource productivity 110, 151, 168, 169, 220 resource use: conflicts 22; credible alternatives 101, 220; decoupling 84–9, 92–5, 94, 95; and economic output 142–4; investment 151, 153, 168, 169; trade off with labour costs 110 retail therapy 115 see also consumerism; shopping revenues, state 222–3 see also taxation revolution 186 see also social stability rights: environment/nature 6–7; human see basic entitlements risk, financial 24, 25, 33, 35 The Road to Serfdom (Hayek) 187 Robinson, Edward 132 Robinson, Joan 159 Rockström, Johan 17, 165 romantic movement 9–10 Roosevelt, Franklin D. 35, 39 Rousseau, Jean Jacques 9, 131 Russia 74, 76, 77–80, 78, 122 sacred canopy 214, 215 salaries: private vs. public sector 130, 171; and profits 175–8 Sandel, Michael 150, 164, 218 São Paulo, Clean City Law 204 Sardar, Zia 49, 50 Sarkozy, Nicolas xxxi, 53 savage state, romantic movement 9–10 savings 26–7, 28, 107–9, 108; investment 149; ratios 34, 118–20, 119 scale, efficiencies of 104 Scandinavia 27, 122, 204 scarcity, managing change 16–17 Schumpeter, Joseph 112 Schwartz, Shalom 135–6, 136 schooling see education The Science of Desire (Dichter) 114 secular stagnation 43–7, 45, 173 securitisation, mortgage loans 35 security: moving towards 219; and wellbeing 48, 61 self-development 204 self-expression see identity construction self-transcending behaviours see transcendence The Selfish Gene (Dawkins) 134–5 selfishness 133–8, 196 Sen, Amartya 50, 52, 61–2, 123–4 service concept/servicization 140–4, 147–8, 148, 158 service-based economies 219; engine of growth 170–4; substitution between labour and capital 178; sustainable investment 169–70 see also public services SFC (stock-flow consistent) economic models 179–80 shame 123–4 shared endeavours, post-growth economy 227 Sheldon, Solomon 214 shelter see basic entitlements shopping 115, 116, 130 see also consumerism short-termism/living for today 194, 197, 200 signals: sent out by society 130, 193, 198, 203, 207; social status 71 see also language of goods Simon, Julian 13 simplicity/simple life 118–20, 127–9, 215–16 simulations see mathematical models/simulations slow: capital 170; movement 128 smart growth 85, 163–5 see also green growth Smith, Adam 51, 106–7, 123, 132, 187 social assets 220 social boundaries (minimum standards) 141 see also basic entitlements social care 150–1 see also caring professions social comparison 115, 116, 117 see also relative income effect social contract 194, 198, 199, 200 social inclusion 48, 69–71, 114, 212 see also participation in society social investment 155, 156, 189, 193, 208, 220–3 social justice 198 see also inequality social logic of consumerism 114–16, 204 social stability 24, 26, 80, 145, 186, 196, 205 see also alienation social status see status social structures 80, 129, 130, 137, 196, 200, 203 social tolerance, and wellbeing 59, 60 social unrest see social stability social wage 40 social welfare: financial reforms 182–3; public sector spending 169 socialism 223 Sociobiology (Wilson) 134 soil integrity 220 Solon, quotation 47, 49, 71 Soper, Kate 125–6 Soros, George 36 Soskice, David 106 Soviet Union, former 74, 76, 77–80, 78, 122 Spain 28, 58, 144, 206 SPEAR organization, responsible investment 155 species loss/extinctions 17, 47, 62, 101 speculation 93, 99, 149, 150, 154, 158, 170; economic stability 180; financial crisis 26, 33, 35; short-term profiteering 150; spending: behaviour of ordinary people 34, 119, 120–1; countercyclical 181–2, 182, 188; economic stability 81; as way out of recession 41, 44, 119, 120–1; and work cycle 125 The Spirit Level (Wilkinson and Pickett) 71, 205–6 spiritual perspectives 117, 127, 128, 214 stability see economic stability; social stability stagflation 26 stagnant sector, Baumol’s cost disease 171 stagnation: economic stability 81–2; labour productivity 145; post-financial crisis 43–7, 45 see also recession state capitalism, types/definitions of capitalism 106 state revenues, from social investment 222–3 see also taxation state roles see governance status 207, 209, 211; and possessions 69, 71, 114, 115, 117 see also language of goods; symbolic role of goods Steady State Economics (Daly) xxxii steady state economies 82, 159, 160, 174, 180 see also post-growth macroeconomics Stern, Nicholas 17–18 stewardship: role of the state 200; sustainable investment 168 Stiglitz, Joseph 53 stock-flow consistent (SFC) economic models 179–80 Stockholm Resilience Centre 17, 201 stranded assets 167–8 see also ownership structures of capitalism see economic structures struggle for existence 8–11, 125, 132–3 Stuckler, David 43 stuff see language of goods; material goods; symbolic role of goods subjective wellbeing (SWB) 49, 58, 58–9, 71, 122, 129 see also wellbeing/happiness subprime lending 26 substitution, between labour and capital 177–178 suffering, struggle for existence 10 suicide 43, 52, 77 Sukdhev, Pavan 41 sulphur dioxide pollution 95–6 Summers, Larry 36 Sunstein, Cass 194 sustainability xxv–xxvi, 102, 104, 126; financial systems 154–5; innovation 226; investment 101, 152, 153, 166–70, 220; resource constraints 12; role of the state 198, 203, 207 see also sustainable prosperity Sustainable Development Strategy, UK 198 sustainable growth see green growth sustainable prosperity 210–12; creating credible alternatives 219–21; finding meaning beyond material commodities 212–16; implications for capitalism 222–5; personal choices for improvement 216–18; and utopianism 225–7 see also limits (flourishing within) SWB see subjective wellbeing; wellbeing/happiness Switzerland 11, 46, 157; citizen’s income 207; income relative to wellbeing 58; inequality 206; life expectancy 74, 75 symbolic role of goods 69, 70–1; existential fear of death 212–16; governance 203; innovation/novelty 114–16; material footprints 139–40; paradox of materialism 121–2 see also language of goods; material goods system dynamics model 11–12, 15 tar sands/oil shales 15 taxation: capital 177; income 81; inequality 206; post-growth economy 222 technological advances 12–13, 15; decoupling 85, 86, 87, 96–8, 100–3, 164–5; dilemma of growth 211; economic stability 80; population increase 10–11; role of state 193, 220 see also novelty/innovation Teilhard de Chardin, Pierre 8 terror management, and consumption 69, 104, 115, 212–15 terrorist attacks (9/11) 121 Thailand, Buddhist monasteries 128 Thaler, Richard 194 theatre, Baumol’s cost disease 171–2 theology see religious perspectives theory of evolution 132–3 thermodynamics, laws of 112, 164 Thich Nhat Hanh 128 thrift 118–20, 127–9, 215–16 throwaway society 113, 172, 204 timescales for change 16–17 tin, commodity prices 13 Today programme interview xxix, xxviii Totnes, transition movement 128–9 Towards a Green Economy report (UNEP) 152–3 Townsend, Peter 48, 61 trade balance 31 trading standards 204 tradition 135–6, 136, 226 ‘Tragedy of the commons’ (Hardin) 190–1 transcendence 214 see also altruism; meaning/purpose; spiritual perspectives transition movement, Totnes 128–9 Triodos Bank 156, 165 Trumpf (machine-tool makers) Germany 146 trust, loss of see alienation tungsten, commodity prices 13 Turkey 58, 88 Turner, Adair 157 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (2015) 19 UBS (Swiss bank) 46 Ubuntu, African philosophy 227 unemployment 77; consumer goods 215; degrowth movement 162; financial crisis 24, 40, 41, 43; Great Depression 39–40; and growth 38; labour productivity 80–1; post-growth economy 174, 175, 183, 208, 219; work as participation 144–6 United Kingdom: Green New Deal group 152; greenhouse gas emissions 92; labour productivity 173; resource inputs 93; Sustainable Development Strategy 198 United Nations: Development Programme 6; Environment Programme 18, 152–3; Green Economy initiative 41 United States: credit unions 155–6; debt 27, 31–32; decoupling 88; greenhouse gas emissions 90–1; subprime lending 26; Works Progress Administration 39 universal basic income 221 see also citizen’s income University of Massachusetts, Political Economy Research Institute 41 utilitarianism/utility, wellbeing 50, 52–3, 55, 60 utopianism 8, 38, 125, 179; post-growth economy 225–7 values, materialistic 126, 135–6 see also intrinsic values Veblen, Thorstein 115 Victor, Peter xxxviii, 146, 175, 177, 180 vision of progress see future visions; post-growth economy volatility, commodity prices 14, 21 wages: and profits 175–8; private vs. public sector 130, 171 walking, personal choices for improvement 217 water use 22 Wealth of Nations, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes (Smith) 123, 132 wealth redistribution 52 see also inequality Weber, Axel 46 welfare policies: financial reforms 182–3; public sector spending 169 welfare of livestock 220 wellbeing/happiness 47–50, 53, 121–2, 124; collective 209; consumer goods 4, 21, 22, 126; growth 6, 165, 211; intrinsic values 126, 129; investment 150; novelty/innovation 117; opulence 50–2, 67–72; personal choices for improvement 217; planetary boundaries 141; relative income effect 55–61, 58, 71, 72; simplicity 129; utilitarianism 50, 52–3, 55, 60 see also capabilities for flourishing western lifestyles 70, 210 White, William 46 Whybrow, Peter 68 Wilhelm, Richard 7 Wilkinson, Richard 71, 205–6 Williams, Tennessee 213 Wilson, Edward 134 wisdom traditions 48, 49, 63, 128, 213–14 work: as participation 140–9, 148, 157, 158; and spend cycle 125; sharing 145, 146, 149, 175 Works Progress Administration, USA 39 World Bank 160 World Values Survey 58 youth unemployment, financial crisis 144–5 zero sum game, growth as 57, 71


Making Globalization Work by Joseph E. Stiglitz

affirmative action, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, business process, capital controls, central bank independence, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Doha Development Round, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Firefox, full employment, Garrett Hardin, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, Gunnar Myrdal, happiness index / gross national happiness, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, incomplete markets, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inventory management, invisible hand, John Markoff, Jones Act, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, microcredit, moral hazard, new economy, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, oil rush, open borders, open economy, price stability, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, race to the bottom, reserve currency, rising living standards, risk tolerance, Seymour Hersh, Silicon Valley, special drawing rights, statistical model, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, Tragedy of the Commons, trickle-down economics, union organizing, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game

To use economists’ jargon, in the former case the marginal cost of usage is zero; in the latter it is positive. 2.See chapter 3, p. 84, for a discussion of the concept of externality and the role of government in dealing with the inefficiences that result. 3.Greenhouse gases include not only carbon dioxide and methane (global average atmospheric concentrations of methane have increased 150 percent since 1750) but also such gases as nitrous oxide (N20). See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Geneva: United Nations Environment Programme, 2001). 4.The most comprehensive surveys of the science on global warming are provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its periodic reports. See IPCC, IPCC Third Assessment: Climate Change 2001 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001). The previous two assessments—IPCC, IPCC First Assessment Report, 1990 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1990); and IPCC, IPCC Second Assessment: Climate Change 1995 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1995)—can be found at www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm. 5.The IPCC was established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, to assess the “risk of human-induced climate change.”

The Rio Earth Summit Some twenty years ago, as scientists first became aware of the changes taking place in the global climate, the world recognized that there was a potential problem and decided to study it. In 1988, the UN created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), asking the world’s leading experts to assess the scale of climate change and its likely impact.5 The IPCC published three major studies between 1990 and 2001, concluding in each of them that there is indeed mounting evidence of the dangers of global warming. The evidence has also been reviewed in innumerable studies by the academies of science in individual countries, including one in the United States after President George W.

My hope is that this book will help nudge the changes in the right direction. New York April 2007 NOTES International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook 2006, Washington, DC, 2006, Table 5, available at www.imf.org/Pubs/FT/weo/2006/01/index.htm. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Geneva, February 2007, available at www.ipcc.ch/SPM2 feb07.pdf. Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007), available at www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_ review_report.cfm.


There Is No Planet B: A Handbook for the Make or Break Years by Mike Berners-Lee

air freight, autonomous vehicles, call centre, carbon footprint, cloud computing, dematerialisation, disinformation, Elon Musk, energy security, energy transition, food miles, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, global village, Hans Rosling, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), land reform, neoliberal agenda, off grid, performance metric, profit motive, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, smart cities, Stephen Hawking, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trickle-down economics, urban planning

(Berners-Lee) 32, 147–48, 227 hydrocarbons/hydrogen 72 hydroelectric power 75 hydro storage 72 ice 228 ICT (information and communication technology), impacts 84–85, 113–14 imperial units 242–44 income tax see tax system India, global distribution of fossil fuel reserves 89–90 individual actions see personal actions and effects individualism 119, 225–26, 228 indoor farming 45–46, 67–68 inequality 228 and citizen’s wage 154 energy use 60, 90–91, 131 food distribution 15–16 global deals 210 population growth 150–51 prisons/prisoners 156 tax system 142–45, 144 trickledown of wealth 130–31, 130 and values 169–71 wealth distribution 130–35, 131–40, 132, 134 insecurity 172–73 interdependencies, global/societal 189–90 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 229 interstellar travel, impracticality of 117–18, 195, 237 interventionist economies 127–30 intrinsic motivation and values 143–44, 170–73 investment 140–42, 228–29 renewable energy sources 73, 87 sustainable farming 48–50 Index iodine, malnutrition 15 IPCC see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iraq, global distribution of fossil fuel reserves 89–90 Ireland, tax system 145 iron animal sources of food 19–20 malnutrition and inequalities of distribution 15 irrigation technology 45–46 Italy, wealth distribution 130–35, 133 Japan nuclear energy 76 sunlight/radiant energy 70, 70–71 Jevons paradox, energy efficiency 82–83 jobs see work/employment joined up perspectives 189–92, 221 journalists see media roles Kennedy, Bobby: speech on GNP 124 Keys to Performance (O’Connor) 180 kids 6–8, 187, 191, 229 kilocalories 12, 242–43 kinetic energy in a gas analogy 136–39 laboratory grown meat 45–46, 67–68 lag times, climate change 204–5 land requirements, sustainable travel 101–3, 102–3, 103–4 leadership 229–30 life expectancy, benefits of growth 123 life-minutes per person lost, diesel vehicles 109 lifestyles 4–5; see also personal actions and effects 283 limits to growth 221 big picture perspective 195 energy use 67–69, 68, 94–95, 208 21st century thinking skills 187–88 and values 170 local activities, appreciation of 123, 187–88, 191 local food, pros and cons 30–32, 230 luxury cruises 115–16 Maldives 210, 230 malnutrition 15–16 Marine Stewardship Council 33 market economies 127–30 materialistic values 174; see also consumption/consumerism maturity, need for 93, 121 Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution 136–38, 230, 265 measurement see metrics meat eating see animal sources of food media roles 231 promoting culture of truth 179–80 trust 182 messages, societal 172–74; see also values methane 79–81, 208–9, 231 metric units 242–44 metrics healthy economic growth 124–27 prisons/prisoners 156 and values 174 work/employment 151 micro-nutrients animal sources of food 19–20 malnutrition 15 Microsoft, carbon pricing scheme 147 mindfulness 174–75, 191, 193 284 misinformation 222 and trust 182, 184 and truth 175 and values 170 mitigation strategies, businesses 163–64 models, climate change 200–1, 204–5 molecular analogy of wealth distribution 136–39 Monbiot, George 236 motivation extrinsic/intrinsic 143–44, 172–73 and trust 181, 184 Musk, Elon 167 natural gas 224; see also fracking; methane neoliberalism 45, 129, 131, 172, 228, 232; see also free market Netherlands 70, 70–71, 149–50 neuroscience 232 nitrogen dioxide 108, 208–9 Norway 130–35, 138, 155–56 nuclear fusion 77, 232 nuclear power (fusion) 75–77, 231–32 obesity 16 ocean acidification 54–55, 232 O’Connor, Tim: Keys to Performance 180 oil 233; see also fossil fuels One Planet principles 160–62, 162 open-mindedness neuroscience 232 respect for 180 spirituality/belief systems 192 and trust 181–82, 184 optimism bias 233 over-simplification 182; see also complexity overeating 16 INDEX parental responsibility 233 Paris climate agreement 165–66 particulate air pollution 107–9 Patagonian Toothfish 33–34 pay rates 173; see also wealth distribution personal actions and effects 198–99, 233–34 air travel 112–13 antibiotics resistance 21 climate change 55 energy 97 feelings of insignificance in global systems 5–6 food/agricultural issues 30, 34–35, 40, 43, 50 population growth 150–51 promoting culture of truth 178–79 technological changes 168 values 174–75 wealth distribution 139 work/employment 153 ‘personal truths’ 176–77 perspectives big picture 186, 191, 195–97 businesses 159 joined up 189–92, 221 photocopying metaphor 219 photovoltaic technology 63–64, 66–67; see also solar energy physical growth mind-set 120 Planet B, lack of 117–18, 195, 237 planned economies 127–30 planning ahead, future scenarios 204–5 planning, urban 104 plastics 55–58, 56–57, 234 politicians see governmental roles; voting pollution, chicken farming 25–26; see also air pollution Index population growth 149–50, 234 feeding growing populations 46–47 investment in control measures 141, 150–51 personal actions and effects 150–51 risks of further growth 122 positive feedback mechanisms, climate change 200–1, 239 power, units of 242–43 prisons/prisoners 154–57, 157, 174, 234 problem-solving methods 5 profit-motive 159, 174 protein animal sources 17–18, 18 carbon footprints 23–25, 24 psychology 227–28 public service 174 questions and answers, reader contributions 194 reader contributions 9–10, 194 ready meals 238 rebalancing, evolutionary 6, 221 rebound effects 213, 235, 272 business strategies 163 climate change 52, 128, 165–66, 206–7, 206 energy efficiency 84, 207 virtual meetings 113–14 reductionism 189–90, 193 refugees 234–35 relatedness/belonging 266 religion 192–93 renewable energy sources 64, 208, 235 hydroelectric power 75 investment 141 limitations relative to fossil fuels 73–86, 85–87 285 using instead of/as well as fossil fuels 81–82 wind energy 73–74 see also biofuels; carbon capture and storage; solar energy respect 171, 180, 197 responsibility corporate 219 parents 233 super-rich 134–35 restaurants role food wastage 40 vegetarianism/veganism 28 retailing, food see food retailers revenge, prisoners 155–56 rice farming 29–30, 45–46, 235 rock weathering, carbon capture and storage 92 Rogers, Carl 172 Russia 210, 235 global distribution of fossil fuel reserves 89–90 sunlight/radiant energy 69–70, 70 Rwanda 70, 70–71, 172 salaries 173; see also wealth distribution Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) 164–66 scientific facts see facts scientific fundamentalism 176 scientific reductionism 189–90, 193 seabass, rebadging Patagonian toothfish as 33–34 sea travel 114–16, 235–36 self-awareness of simple/small/local 123, 187–88, 191 and trust 181, 184 self-reflection, 21st century thinking skills 188 286 sentient animals, treating decently 11, 17 shared-use vehicles 105–6 shareholder profits 159, 174 sharing 146 shifting baseline syndrome 236 shipping 114–16, 235–36 shock 236 simple things, appreciation of 123, 187–88, 191 simplistic thinking 182; see also complexity slavery and citizen’s wage 154 and employment 151 fishing industry 32, 34–35 slowing down 187–88, 196 small scale, appreciation of 123, 187–88, 191 Smith, Adam: The Wealth of Nations 129 social support structures, and values 173–74 solar energy 236 amount falling on earth 66 coping with intermittent sunlight 71–73 countries with highest radiant energy 69–71 countries with least radiant energy 70–71 relative to fossil fuel reserves 89 global distribution of radiant energy 69–71, 70 harnessing 66–67 South Korea, sunlight/radiant energy 70, 70–71 soya beans 21, 22, 236–37 space tourism 94, 100 spaceflight, impracticality of interstellar travel 117–18, 195, 237 INDEX Spain, wealth distribution 130–35, 133 spending practices, ethical consumerism 147–48, 168 spirituality/belief systems 192–93, 237 status symbols 173 sticking plasters (band aids) 237–38 storage of renewable energy 71–73 sunlight see solar energy supermarkets see food retailers super-rich responsibilities 134–35 taxation 145 wealth distribution 137 supply chains ethical consumerism 147–48 food and agriculture 48 science-based targets 165–66 systems approaches big picture perspective 196 businesses 159–62, 161 One Planet Living principles 160–62, 162 Taiwan, tax system 145 takeaways 238 tax system 238 carbon taxes 142–43 wealth distribution 138, 142–45 technological changes 239 agricultural 45–46 big picture perspective 195–96 business strategies 166–68 and economic growth 122–23 thinking skills big picture perspective 197 twenty-first century 185–92, 190–91 tipping points see trigger points town planning 104 transmission of renewable energy 73 Index travel and transport 99 air travel 110–14 autonomous cars 109–10 commuting 217 current rates 99–100, 100 cycling 116 diesel vehicles 107–9, 109 e-cars 106 food miles 30–32 future demands 100–1, 109–10 land needed for sustainable 101–3, 102–3, 103–4 sea travel 114–16 shared-use vehicles 105–6 spaceflight 117–18 urban 104–6 trickledown of wealth 130–31, 130, 239 trigger points, step changes in climate 2, 200–2 trust 180–84 truth 175–76, 239 big picture perspective 197 importance of seeking 177 media roles 179–80 ‘personal truths’ 176–77 promoting culture of 177–79 respect for 171 and trust 180–84 tsunami, December 2004 2 twenty-first century thinking skills 185–92, 190–91, 197 2-degree ‘safe limit’ for temperature rise 52, 200–1, 204–5, 239 unconditional positive regard 172 United Kingdom energy by end use 62, 62 gambling industry 139–40 nuclear energy 76 population growth 149–50 prisons/prisoners 155 287 sunlight/radiant energy 70, 70–71 wealth distribution 136–37 United States global distribution of fossil fuel reserves 89–90 prisons/prisoners 155–56 sunlight/radiant energy 69–70, 70 tax system 145 wealth distribution 130–35, 132–35 units, metric/imperial 242–44 urban planning 104 urban transport 104–6 value of human life 240 values 6–8, 169 big picture perspective 197 businesses 159, 174 changing for the better 172–75 and economics 119 evidence base for values choices 169–71 extrinsic/intrinsic 170–73 global cultural norms 171–72, 197 prisons/prisoners 156 technological changes 168 wealth distribution 132–33 work/employment 152–53 see also ethical consumerism vegetarianism/veganism 26–29 Venezuela, global distribution of fossil fuels 89–90 violent deaths 240 virtual travel 113–14 visions of future 8–9 businesses 159 vitamin A 15, 19–20, 247 voting, power of 240–41 climate change policies 51–53, 200–11 288 voting, power of (cont.) energy policies 59, 97 promoting culture of truth 178–80 see also democracy waking up 241 Wallis, Stewart 145 waste food 36–43, 241 mitigation 42–44, 43, 43 as proportion of food grown 12–15, 14 by region/type/processing stage 37, 38–39, 39 water use technology, in agriculture 45–46 watts 12, 242–43 wealth distribution economics 130–35, 131–40, 132, 134 tax system 138, 142–45, 144 see also inequality The Wealth of Nations (Smith) 129 INDEX weapons industry 152 weight, units of 244 wellbeing 241 benefits of growth 123 businesses, role of 158–59 and citizen’s wage 154 metrics of healthy growth 126 work/employment 151–52 Wellbeing Economy 267 wind energy 73–74 wisdom, need for 93, 121 work/employment 229 agricultural work 44–45, 222 and citizen’s wage 153–54 investment in sustainability 49–50 personal actions and effects 153 useful/beneficial 151–52 values 152–53 zinc 15, 19–20

Since there is only so much money to go around, divestment liberates the opportunity for investment elsewhere. Just to give one important example, investment in fossil fuels is unhelpful. However, divestment from them creates opportunity for Alphabetical Quick Tour 229 investment in things we urgently need like renewables, green transport and direct capture of carbon from air. IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A large group of very clever and well-resourced scientists who have put together an incredibly thoughtful and robust assessment of climate change; the risks and uncertainties. In the past it has had two main shortcomings. First has been the misplaced belief that presenting the arguments ever more clearly with increasing rigour is what is required to win the argument and precipitate appropriate action on climate change.

Some of what follows was laid out in more detail by Duncan Clark and I in ‘The Burning Question’ 1 although the position briefly outlined here also contains some important updates. STOP PRESS: As this book went into its final edit, the IPCC's long awaited special report 'Global Warming of 1.5 degrees' hit the front pages of all good news media. It is the IPCC's most urgent call for action so far and is a very useful development. Since it draws mainly on the same source material that I have used, it is no surprise that the report is totally coherent with the points in this appendix. Happily, unlike the IPCC, I have not had to negotiate the content with any politicians, so it is easier for me to get quickly to the point without any requirement for tact.2 Point 1: A global temperature rise of 2 C looks very risky but 1.5 C much less so In truth, no one really knows how bad the consequences of any particular temperature rise might be.


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Under a White Sky: The Nature of the Future by Elizabeth Kolbert

Albert Einstein, big-box store, clean water, coronavirus, Covid-19, COVID-19, Donald Davies, double helix, Hernando de Soto, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, Kickstarter, Maui Hawaii, moral hazard, Stewart Brand, The Chicago School, Whole Earth Catalog

All of which makes negative emissions—as an idea at least—irresistible. The extent to which humanity is already counting on them is illustrated by the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was published in the run-up to Paris. To peer into the future, the IPCC relies on computer models that represent the world’s economic and energy systems as a tangle of equations. The output of these models is then translated into figures that climate scientists can use to forecast how much temperatures are going to rise. For its report, the IPCC considered more than a thousand scenarios. The majority of these led to temperature increases beyond the official 2°C disaster threshold, and some led to warming of more than 5°C (9° Fahrenheit).

., “Betting on Negative Emissions,” Nature Climate Change, 4 (2014), 850–852. All of the scenarios consistent with that goal: J. Rogelj et al., “Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development,” in Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report, V. Masson-Delmotte et al., eds., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Oct. 8, 2018), ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/02/SR15_Chapter2_Low_Res.pdf. I used up my allotment: Calculating the emissions from air travel is complicated, and different groups offer different estimates for the same trip. I am relying on the flight carbon calculator at myclimate.org.

The majority of these led to temperature increases beyond the official 2°C disaster threshold, and some led to warming of more than 5°C (9° Fahrenheit). Just a hundred and sixteen scenarios were consistent with holding warming under 2°C, and of these, a hundred and one involved negative emissions. Following Paris, the IPCC produced another report, based on the 1.5°C threshold. All of the scenarios consistent with that goal relied on negative emissions. “I think what the IPCC really is saying is, ‘We tried lots and lots of scenarios,’ ” Klaus Lackner told me. “ ‘And, of the scenarios which stayed safe, virtually every one needed some magic touch of negative emissions. If we didn’t do that, we ran into a brick wall.’ ” * * * — Climeworks, the company I paid to bury my emissions in Iceland, was founded by two college friends, Christoph Gebald and Jan Wurzbacher.


pages: 304 words: 90,084

Net Zero: How We Stop Causing Climate Change by Dieter Helm

3D printing, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, blockchain, Boris Johnson, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, coronavirus, Covid-19, COVID-19, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, demand response, Deng Xiaoping, Donald Trump, fixed income, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Haber-Bosch Process, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, market design, means of production, North Sea oil, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, planetary scale, price mechanism, quantitative easing, remote working, reshoring, Ronald Reagan, smart meter, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, statistical model, Thomas Malthus

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AI, artificial intelligence BSE, bovine spongiform encephalopathy CAP, Common Agricultural Policy CBA, cost–benefit analysis CCC, Committee on Climate Change CCS, carbon capture and storage CEGB, Central Electricity Generating Board CfD, Contract for Difference COP, Conference of the Parties CRISPR, clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats DECC, Department of Energy and Climate Change Defra, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs DDT, Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane DETR, Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions DNO, distribution network operator EFP, equivalent firm power EMR, Electricity Market Reform EU ETS, EU Emissions Trading System GDP, gross domestic product GMO, genetically modified organism GW, gigawatt HS2, a planned high-speed rail project for England ICT, information and communications technology IEA, International Energy Agency IEM, Internal Energy Market IP, intellectual property IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LED, light-emitting diode LNG, liquefied natural gas mbd, million barrels per day MPC, Monetary Policy Committee NDC, nationally determined contribution NFU, National Farmers’ Union OPEC, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ppm, parts per million PV, photovoltaics R&D, research and development RAB, regulated asset base SUV, sport utility vehicle TWh, terawatt-hour UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USO, universal service obligation VAT, value-added tax WTO, World Trade Organization INTRODUCTION It is not going well.

The UN decided that immediate action needed to be taken on the reasonable grounds that there was enough evidence to act, and delay was only going to make things worse. There followed the ground-breaking UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC),[2] signed in 1992, committing the signatories to action and drawing on the reports of the already established Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This in turn led to the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 and the Paris Agreement in 2015, with targets indexed back to the baseline of 1990.[3] Apart from nuclear arms treaties, there has probably never been anything like the UNFCCC in human history. Hopes were high. The fact that the Soviet Union had imploded added to the sense that there was a new world order, capable of tackling this new and huge problem.

acid rain 25, 194 Africa xiv, xv, 2, 25, 30, 38, 44, 45, 47, 48, 51, 137, 229 agriculture 2, 6, 12, 13, 14, 23, 35–6, 43, 44–5, 70, 76, 86, 87–8, 95, 100, 102, 109, 116, 146–7, 149, 159, 163–80, 181, 183, 192, 197, 198, 206, 220 baseline, the 164–8 biodiversity loss and 2, 5, 100, 164, 165, 168, 169, 171, 172, 174, 180 biofuels and 197–8 carbon emissions and 2, 12, 13, 35–6, 76–7, 146–7, 163–80 carbon price and 167–70, 171, 172, 173, 180 China and 28–9, 35, 45, 180 economics of 76, 165, 166–7, 171, 174 electricity and 13, 166, 168, 174, 178, 180 fertiliser use see fertiliser lobby 14, 110, 164, 165, 169, 170, 197 methane emissions 23, 84, 177, 178, 179 net gain and 172–4 net value of UK 76, 166 new technologies/indoor farming 87–8, 174–9, 180, 213 peat bogs and 2, 179 pesticide use see pesticides petrochemicals and 166 polluter-pays principle and 76, 168–70, 172, 173 pollution 36, 86, 163, 165–6, 168–70, 172, 173, 177–8, 230 public goods, agricultural 170–4, 180 sequestering carbon and 12, 95, 163, 166, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173–4, 177, 179, 180 soils and 2, 146, 163, 164, 165, 166, 168, 169, 171, 172, 175, 179 subsidies 14, 76, 102, 109, 116, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 172, 180, 228 25 Year Plan and 179–80 Agriculture Bill (2018), UK 170 air conditioning 135–6, 224, 233 air quality xiii, 13, 25, 46, 52, 61, 70, 135, 153, 177, 180, 201, 216, 230, 232 air transport 3–4, 6, 11, 13, 22, 50, 53, 73, 87, 88, 92, 107, 125, 128, 129, 132, 133, 134, 149, 156–7, 186, 195, 201, 203–5 aluminium 7, 117 Amazon rainforest 2, 34, 35, 95, 145, 149–50, 151, 155, 229, 230 ammonia 35, 137, 191 anaerobic digesters 35, 165, 230 animal welfare 167, 177 antibiotics 93, 165, 174 Arctic 26, 46, 114, 178 artificial intelligence (AI) 32, 175, 220, 231 autonomous vehicles 13, 129, 132, 175, 189–90, 231 Balkans 137–8 Bank of England 121 batteries 6, 31, 131, 135, 141, 183, 184, 185–90, 191, 199, 204, 213, 214, 219, 220, 221, 225, 231 beef 5, 95, 116, 117, 167, 230 Berlin, Isaiah 104 big 5 polluter products 117–18, 120 bin Salman, Mohammad 27 biocrops 36 biodiversity xiv, 2, 5, 12, 13, 28, 35, 51, 76, 94, 100, 148, 149, 152, 153, 158, 159, 164, 165, 168, 169–70, 171, 172, 174, 180, 227, 233 bioenergy 31, 34–5, 36 biofuels 21, 35, 49, 50, 67, 70, 95, 135, 183, 184, 197–8, 210, 230 biomass 32, 34, 49, 50, 67, 69, 109, 146, 147, 151, 210, 217 bonds, government 220 BP 27, 149, 187, 199 Deepwater Horizon disaster, Gulf of Mexico (2010) 147 Brazil 2, 35, 38, 44–5, 47, 95, 145, 149–50, 155, 198 Brexit 42, 47, 56, 117, 165 British Gas 102, 139 British Steel x, 194 broadband networks 6, 11, 90, 92, 125, 126, 127–8, 130–1, 132–3, 135, 140–1, 199, 201, 202, 205, 211, 214, 231, 232 Brundtland Commission 45 BT 127–8, 141 Openreach 214 Burn Out (Helm) ix, xiv Bush, George W. 36, 48, 53, 103 business rates 76, 165 Canada 52, 191, 193 capitalist model 26, 42, 99, 227 carbon border tax/carbon border adjustment xii, 11, 13, 60, 80, 115–20, 194–6, 204 carbon capture and storage (CCS) xiv, 12, 75–6, 95, 109, 146, 147–8, 149, 154, 159, 203–4, 207, 209, 222, 223 Carbon Crunch, The (Helm) ix, xiv, 221 carbon diary 4–5, 8, 10, 11, 64–6, 83, 86, 116, 143, 144, 155, 156, 167, 180, 181, 185, 203, 205 carbon emissions: agriculture and see agriculture by country (2015) 30 during ice ages and warm periods for the past 800,000 years 21 economy and 81–159 electricity and see electricity global annual mean concentration of CO2 (ppm) 19 global average long-term concentration of CO2 (ppm) 20 measuring 43–6 since 1990 1–14, 17–37 transport and see individual method of transport 2020, position in 36–7 UN treaties and 38–57 unilateralism and 58–80 see also unilateralism carbon offsetting xiii–xiv, 4, 5, 12, 34, 45, 72, 74, 79, 94–6, 97, 105, 143–59, 192, 201, 203, 207, 214, 222, 223, 234 for companies 148–50 for countries 151–5 for individuals 155–7 markets 71–2, 110–13, 117, 144, 157–9, 208 travel and 156, 201–3 see also sequestration carbon permits 71–2, 79, 110–13, 117, 144, 208 carbon price/tax xii, xiii, xv, 8, 11, 12, 13, 26, 60, 61, 71, 72, 77, 79, 80, 84, 85–6, 102–3, 105, 106–24, 134, 143, 146, 147, 150, 151–4, 157, 159, 192, 197, 198, 199, 203, 227–30, 232, 234 agriculture and 167, 168, 169–70, 171, 173, 180 domain of the tax/carbon border adjustment xii, 11, 13, 60, 80, 115–20, 121, 124, 192, 194–6, 197, 204, 227 electric pollution and 216–18 ethics of 107–10 floor price 115, 117, 208 for imports 11, 13 prices or quantities/EU ETS versus carbon taxes 110–13 setting 113–15 transport and 192–9 what to do with the money 121–4 where to levy the tax 119–20 who fixes the price 120–1 carbon sinks 2, 5, 166, 169, 203 carboniferous age 34 cars 1, 3, 4, 7, 20, 22, 36, 44, 70, 73, 114, 129, 181, 182, 183, 184–5, 190, 191, 193, 196, 197, 198, 199 see also electric vehicles cartels 39, 40, 43, 45, 46, 47, 56 cattle farming 35, 36, 95, 150, 166, 167, 173, 177, 198 Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) 102, 139, 218 cement 6, 7, 26, 29, 34, 87, 117, 171 charging networks, electric vehicle 91, 129–30, 141–2, 184, 185–90, 199, 200, 202, 219 Chernobyl 78 China xi, xv, 1–2, 5, 8, 18, 42, 46, 47, 48, 64, 66, 74, 101, 180, 229 Belt and Road Initiative 28, 45 coal use 1–2, 8, 23–4, 24, 28, 31, 38, 117, 154, 206, 208 Communist Party 2, 27, 42, 46 demand for fossil fuels/carbon emissions 1–2, 8, 18, 20, 22, 23–4, 24, 25, 27–31, 36, 38, 51, 73, 117, 154, 206, 208 export market x–xi, 5, 9, 64, 66, 117, 155, 194 fertiliser use 35 GDP xv, 27, 29 nationalism and 42 petrochemical demand 22 renewables companies 9, 32, 73, 74, 77, 79 Tiananmen Square 42 unilateralism and 58, 59 UN treaties and 46, 47, 48, 53, 54, 55, 58, 59 US trade war 56, 118 Churchill, Winston 183 citizen assemblies 99–101 climate change: carbon emissions and see carbon emissions 1.5° target 38, 57 2° target 1, 10, 22–3, 28, 30, 38, 39, 45, 47, 54, 55, 57, 108, 122, 155, 206 see also individual area of climate change Climate Change Act (2008) 66, 74–7 Clinton, Bill 40, 48 Club of Rome 98 coal 1–2, 5, 8, 13, 20, 23–5, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 34, 36, 38, 50, 52, 53, 60–1, 67, 72, 77, 78–9, 101, 109, 112, 116, 117, 119, 134, 136, 145, 147, 148, 151, 154, 155, 182, 183, 194, 196, 206–9, 210, 212, 214, 216, 217, 218, 229, 230 coastal marshes 146, 159 colonialism 45 Committee on Climate Change (CCC), UK x–xi, 7, 74–5, 120, 164, 166, 169, 217, 235 ‘Net Zero: The UK’s Contribution to Stopping Global Warming’ report x–xi conference/video calls 6, 129, 156, 202, 205 Conference of the Parties (COP) xii, 10, 48, 50, 53–4, 55, 59, 205 congestion charges 198 Copenhagen Accord 48, 53–4, 59 Coronavirus see Covid-19 cost-benefit analysis (CBA) 71, 108, 110, 114, 138 cost of living 116 Covid-19 x, xi–xii, 1, 3, 6, 9, 18, 19, 22, 25, 27, 30, 37, 44, 46, 50, 57, 65, 69, 80, 89, 93, 129, 135, 148, 171, 201, 202, 204, 232 CRISPR 176 crop yields 172, 177 dams 2, 36, 52–3, 179 DDT (Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) 100 deforestation 2, 5, 34, 35, 36, 38, 43, 44, 47, 55, 87, 95, 145, 146, 149–50, 155, 172–3, 179, 197–8, 229 Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) 170 deindustrialisation x, 29, 46, 52, 54, 59, 72–4, 218 Deng Xiaoping 27 Denmark 69–70, 136–7 desalination 135–6, 179 diesel 4, 20–1, 70, 76, 86, 109, 119, 121, 129, 132, 164, 165, 166, 174, 175, 178, 179, 181, 182, 185, 186, 191, 192, 196–7, 208, 217, 230 ‘dieselgate’ scandal 196–7 digitalisation 1, 8, 11, 13, 33, 92, 117, 136, 174, 175, 180, 206, 211, 215, 221, 228–9, 231 DONG 69 Drax 147, 151, 154, 218 economy, net zero 10–12, 81–159 delivering a 96–103 intergenerational equity and 96–7 markets and 103–5 net environmental gain see net environmental gain political ideologies and 98–101 polluter-pays principle see polluter-pays principle public goods, provision of see public goods, provision of technological change and 98 EDF 139, 218 Ehrlich, Paul 98 electricity 1–2, 4, 6, 11, 12, 13, 23, 31, 32, 49, 53, 61, 65, 66, 68, 70, 73, 77, 78, 79, 91, 92, 101, 102, 109, 117, 125, 127, 128, 129–30, 131–2, 134, 135, 136, 137, 139, 140, 141, 149, 158, 166, 168, 174, 178, 180, 182, 183, 228, 229, 231, 232, 234, 235 coal, getting out of 206–7 electric pollution and the carbon price 216–18 electric vehicles 4, 6, 13, 20, 23, 49, 61, 91, 92, 94, 121, 125, 128, 129–30, 131–2, 134, 141, 183–92, 193, 194, 197, 200, 201, 202, 206, 219, 228 equivalent firm power auctions and system operators 210–16 future of 206–25 gas, how to get out of 207–9 infrastructure, electric 185–90, 218–20 low-carbon options post-coal and gas 209–10 net gain and our consumption 222–5 R&D and next-generation renewables 220–2 renewable see renewables Energy Market Reform (EMR) 219 equivalent firm power (EFP) 212–16, 217, 220 ethanol 35, 71, 95, 197 eucalyptus trees xiv, 152 European Commission 60, 71, 72, 112 European Union (EU) xiv, 2, 7, 8, 9, 37, 42, 44, 46, 47, 117, 137, 165, 166, 197; baseline of 1990 and 51–2 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 76, 165 competition regime and customs union 56 deindustrialisation and 46, 52, 54, 59, 72–4 directives for 2030 66 Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) 71–2, 73, 79, 110–13, 117, 144, 208 importing carbon emissions 59 Internal Energy Market (IEM) 68, 71 Kyoto and 9, 51, 59, 66–7 Mercosur Agreement 44, 95 net zero target for 2050 66, 115, 143, 155, 167, 180 Paris and 54 Renewable Energy Directive 68–71, 73, 109 2020 targets signed into law 66 2020–20–20 targets 67, 69, 74 unilateralism and 59, 66–71, 80 Eurostar 133 externalities 104, 170, 180, 196 Extinction Rebellion 6 farmers 14, 26, 35, 36, 43, 71, 76, 86, 95, 102, 109, 110, 146–7, 164, 165, 166, 169, 170, 174, 175, 196, 197, 198 fertiliser 4, 6, 7, 26, 29, 35, 61, 73, 86, 87, 116, 117, 119, 163, 165, 169, 174, 175, 178, 179, 191, 194, 197 fibre/broadband networks 6, 11, 90, 92, 125, 126, 127–8, 130–1, 132–3, 135, 140–1, 201, 202, 205, 211, 214, 231, 232 financial crisis (2007/8) 1, 19, 69 first-mover advantage 75 First Utility 199 flooding 13, 77, 149, 152, 153, 159, 170, 233 food miles 167 food security 170–1 food waste 178, 180, 231 Forestry Commission xiv Formula One 186, 196 fossil fuels, golden age of 20–5 see also individual fossil fuel France 46, 47, 52, 56, 73, 78, 101, 113, 130, 136, 138 free-rider problem 39–40, 43, 62–4, 106, 119 fuel duty 121, 195–6 fuel efficiency 197 fuel prices 26, 112–13, 209 fuel use declaration 195 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster (2011) 52, 78 Fukuyama, Francis: The End of History and the Last Man 40–1 gardens 6, 43, 143, 156 gas, natural ix, 2, 5, 8, 20, 23, 24, 25, 26, 29, 31, 32, 36, 50, 52, 68, 69, 79, 102, 109, 117, 119, 129, 136, 137, 146, 147–8, 149, 183, 190, 193, 194, 207–9, 210, 211, 214, 216–17 G8 47 gene editing 172, 176, 231 general election (2019) 121 genetics 98, 172, 174–6, 231 geoengineering 177 geothermal power 137, 178 Germany 9, 30, 47, 52, 59, 60, 62, 66, 67, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 75, 77–80, 83, 91, 101, 112, 136, 137, 138, 144, 206, 208, 209 Energiewende (planned transition to a low-carbon, nuclear-free economy) 59, 69, 77–80, 112, 144, 208 Gilets Jaunes 101, 113 GMOs (genetically modified organisms) 176, 177 Great Northern Forest, Britain 151 Green and Prosperous Land (Helm) xiii, xiv, 165, 169, 234 greenbelt 173 greenhouse effect 17 green new deal 90, 102, 234 green parties/green votes 69, 77, 78 green QE (quantitative easing) 102–3 green walls 153, 231 greenwash 156 gross domestic product (GDP) xii, xv, 1, 25, 27, 29, 41, 57, 59, 73, 76, 83, 93, 98, 103, 133, 165, 207, 227, 229, 233 growth nodes 133 G7 47 G20 47 Haber-Bosch process 35, 163 Hamilton, Lewis 186 ‘hands-free’ fields 175 Harry, Prince 6 Heathrow 133, 134 hedgerow 76, 166, 167, 172 Helm Review (‘The Cost of Energy Review’) (2017) ix, 120, 141, 200, 210, 212, 215, 217, 220, 238 herbicide 163 home insulation 102 House of Lords 170 housing 101, 223–4 HS2 92, 125, 132–4, 138, 202 Hume, David 49 hydrogen 13, 49, 92, 125, 128, 135, 137, 183, 184, 190–2, 199, 200, 204, 206, 213, 228 hydro power 31, 35, 36, 50, 52–3, 70, 136, 137, 191 Iceland 137, 178 imports x–xi, xiii, 5, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 62, 68, 70, 117–18, 155, 167, 178, 173, 180, 196, 227 income effect 72, 111 income tax 121, 122, 232 India xiv, xv, 25, 30, 31, 38, 43, 44, 47, 48, 51, 54, 55, 57, 154, 229 individuals, net zero for 155–7 Indonesia 2, 35 indoor farming 87–8, 177–8, 180, 213 indoor pollutants 223, 232 Industrial Revolution 1, 18, 19, 25, 47, 116, 145 INEOS Grangemouth petrochemical plant xi information and communications technology (ICT) 117, 202, 231 infrastructures, low-carbon xiii, xiv, 11–12, 14, 28, 60, 62, 65, 66, 90, 91–4, 96, 105, 109, 123, 125–42, 143, 147, 151, 154, 159, 171, 184, 186, 187, 190, 199–200, 214, 218–20, 228, 230, 231–2, 234–5 centrality of infrastructure networks 128–30 electric 125–41, 218–20 making it happen 141–2 net zero national infrastructure plan 130–6 private markets and 125–8, 141–2 regional and global infrastructure plan 136–7 state intervention and 126, 127–8, 141–2 system operators and implementing the plans 138–41 inheritance tax 76, 165 insects 164, 177, 231 insulation 102, 224 Integrated Assessment Models 114 intellectual property (IP) 75 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 17–18, 47, 55, 57, 108, 172 internal combustion engine 13, 22, 181–2, 183, 184, 200, 221, 228 Internal Energy Market (IEM) 68, 71, 138 International Energy Agency (IEA) 25, 207 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 51 internet banking 131, 213 internet-of-things 128, 175 Iran 27, 42, 113, 137 Iraq 56, 192 Ireland 43, 157 Italy 137, 182 Japan 27, 28, 30, 52, 73, 78, 101, 185 Jevons Paradox 224 Johnson, Boris 89–90 Kant, Immanuel 104 Keynes, John Maynard 89, 102, 103, 105 Kyoto Protocol (1997) xii, 2, 7, 9, 13, 17–18, 37, 38, 39, 40–1, 47–8, 49, 51, 52–3, 59, 66–7, 119 laissez-faire 104, 138, 188 land use 35, 61, 95, 172, 237 LED (light-emitting diode) lighting 87, 178, 179, 180, 213 liquefied natural gas (LNG) 136, 183 lithium-ion battery 185 lobbying 10, 14, 33, 69, 71, 109, 110, 111–12, 115, 121, 157, 169, 170, 187, 197, 209, 223, 227, 228 location-specific taxes 194 maize 35, 165, 197 Malaysia 2, 229 Malthus, Thomas 98 Mao, Chairman 27, 42 meat xi, 65, 164, 177, 180, 232 Mekong River 2, 28, 179, 229 Mercosur Agreement 44, 95 Merkel, Angela 78 methane 4, 23, 84, 177, 178, 179, 216 microplastics 22 miracle solution 49–50, 55, 209 mobile phone 5, 125, 185 National Farmers’ Union (NFU) 110, 164, 165, 169, 170, 171 National Grid 139, 141, 189, 200, 211, 214, 219 nationalisations 101–2, 126–7 nationalism 41, 43, 55, 56, 138 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) 54–5 natural capital xiii, 14, 33–6, 51, 85, 86, 88, 90, 94, 97, 154, 158, 168, 171, 173–4, 236 Nature Fund 123, 169, 234 net environmental gain principle xiii, xiv, 10, 12, 62, 84, 94–6, 105, 143–59, 169, 172–4, 192, 201–3, 222–5 agriculture and 169, 172–4 carbon offsetting and see carbon offsetting electricity and 222–5 principle of 94–6, 143–4 sequestration and see sequestration transport and 192, 201–3 Netherlands 138 Network Rail 214 net zero agriculture and see agriculture defined x–xv, 3–14 economy 10–12, 81–159 see also economy, net zero electricity and see electricity transport and see individual method of transport 2025 or 2030 target 89 2050 target x, xi, 5, 59, 66, 74, 75, 115, 120, 135, 143, 155, 167, 169, 180, 184, 216, 217, 222, 226, 230, 231, 232 unilateralism and see unilateralism NHS 65 non-excludable 91, 93, 126, 170 non-rivalry 91, 93, 126, 170 North Korea 42 North Sea oil/gas 9, 40, 75, 97, 102, 137, 139, 147, 148, 193 Norway 130, 137, 191 nuclear power 5, 9, 12, 18, 23, 52, 60, 73, 77–9, 109, 125, 128, 129, 136, 140, 178, 194, 199, 206, 207, 208, 209–10, 212, 214, 216, 218, 219, 222, 228 Obama, Barack 48, 53, 54, 59 oceans 2, 14, 22, 33, 85, 86, 88, 148, 163, 231 offsetting see carbon offsetting offshore wind power 31, 69, 75–6, 208, 212, 219, 221 Ofgem 220 oil ix, 2, 20, 22–3, 25, 26, 27, 31, 32, 33, 36, 39, 40, 50, 67, 69, 86, 97, 117, 119, 129, 136, 137, 146, 147, 148–9, 150–1, 152, 181–3, 184, 185, 187, 189, 190, 192–4, 196, 197, 199, 206, 209, 210, 216–17, 229 OPEC 39, 40, 193 Orbán, Viktor 41, 42 organic food 61, 87, 178 Ørsted 70 palm oil 2, 5, 6, 35, 36, 66, 71, 167, 173, 197–8, 230 pandemic see Covid-19 Paris Climate Change Agreement (2015) xii, 2, 10, 13, 18, 30, 37, 38, 39, 48, 49, 54–5, 56, 57, 58, 66, 80, 105, 106, 118, 119, 227 peat bogs xiv, 2, 13, 14, 33, 35, 36, 43, 109, 146, 169, 179 pesticides 4, 26, 61, 163, 165, 169, 174, 178, 231 petrochemicals xi, 7, 8, 20, 22–3, 29, 73, 80, 86, 117, 166, 182 petrol 4, 86, 119, 121, 129, 185, 186, 187, 191, 192, 199 photosynthesis 34, 197 plastics 1, 22, 28, 35, 43, 66, 86, 87, 119, 143, 166, 184, 231 polluter-pays principle xiii, xv, 84–90 agriculture and 76, 168–70, 172, 173 carbon price and see carbon price/tax generalised across all sources of pollution 86 identifying polluters that should pay 86 importance of 10–11, 13, 61, 62, 65 intergenerational balance and 96–7 net environmental gain and 94 sequestration and see sequestration, carbon sustainable economy and 96–7, 105, 106 transport and 192–5, 198–9 see also individual type of pollution population growth 93, 97, 177, 178, 179, 232 privatisation 127, 140, 218–19, 220 property developers 94 public goods, provision of xiii, 10, 11–12, 62, 75, 84, 90–4, 96, 104, 105, 109, 122, 123, 126, 128, 141, 147, 151, 153, 159, 164, 168, 173–4, 180, 192, 199–200, 202, 218, 229, 230 agricultural 170–4, 180 low-carbon infrastructures see infrastructures, low-carbon research and development (R&D) see research and development (R&D) Putin, Vladimir 27, 41, 42, 89 railways 11, 13, 13, 87, 91, 92, 94, 125, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132–3, 138, 139, 156, 182, 183, 187, 202, 212, 214, 232 rainforest 2, 5, 34, 35, 36, 38, 44, 47, 55, 87, 95, 145, 149, 155, 173, 179–80, 197, 229 rationalism 40–1 Reagan, Ronald 103 red diesel 76, 109, 164, 165, 196 regulated asset base (RAB) 127, 141, 215, 220 remote working 128, 156, 201–2, 205 renewables ix, 6, 8, 9–10, 18, 19, 21, 26, 31–5, 36, 49, 50, 55, 61, 67, 72, 77, 79, 85, 86, 109, 110, 112, 123, 125, 128, 131, 135, 138, 140, 144, 149, 178, 188, 191, 194, 197, 199, 207, 209–10, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 219, 220–2, 224, 228 Chinese domination of market 9, 32, 73, 74, 77, 79 cost-competitiveness of 9–10, 49, 51, 61, 68 failure of, 1990-now 19, 31–3, 36 modern global renewable energy consumption measured in TWh per year 32 miracle solution and 49–51 Renewable Energy Directive 68–71, 73, 109 subsidies ix, 9, 10, 50, 68–9, 71, 79, 80 see also individual renewable energy source Renewables UK 110 research and development (R&D) xiv, 12, 13, 14, 62, 65, 66, 90, 93–4, 104, 109, 123, 165, 172, 192, 200, 218, 220–2, 223, 228, 234 reshoring businesses 8, 204 rivers 2, 22, 28, 86, 128, 152, 165, 169, 179, 214, 230 roads 11, 28, 45, 91, 92, 125, 129, 131–2, 140, 165, 182, 189, 194, 198, 202, 232 robotics 32, 175, 204, 206, 231 Rosneft 26 Royal Navy 183 Russia 26, 27, 30, 40, 42, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 50, 52, 55, 56, 192, 193 RWE 139, 218 Ryanair 156–7 rye grass 35 salmon 169, 177 Saudi Arabia 26, 33, 40, 42, 50, 137, 192, 193 Saudi Aramco 26, 50 seashells 34 sequestration, carbon xi, xiv, 12, 61, 66, 85, 90, 95, 143–59, 228, 229, 231, 232 agriculture and 12, 163, 166, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173, 176–7, 179, 180 baseline definition and 146–7 biofuels and 35, 146, 217 carbon capture and storage (CCS) xiv, 12, 75–6, 95, 109, 146, 147–8, 149, 154, 159, 203–4, 207, 209, 222, 223 companies, net zero for 148–51 countries, offsetting for 151–5 electricity and 222, 223 gas and 207 individuals, net zero for xi, xiv, 155–7 markets, offsetting 157–9 natural capital destruction and 2, 19, 33–6, 44, 45, 51 natural sequestration xi, xiii, 2, 7, 12, 14, 33–6, 37, 45, 52, 66, 85, 90, 94–6, 105, 143–59, 163, 168, 171, 173, 176–7, 179, 180, 203, 206, 207, 222, 223 net gain principle and 143–4, 146, 149–50 offsetting principle and 143–5 peat bogs and see peat bogs principle of xi, xiii, 2, 7, 12–13 soils and see soils transport and 185, 190, 203 tree planting and see trees, planting/sequestration and types of 145–8 wetlands/coastal marshes and 146, 159, 233 shale gas 8, 208 Shell 27, 149, 199 shipping 8, 13, 22, 28, 36, 49, 114, 125, 137, 181, 182–3, 191, 194–5, 203–5, 217 Siberia 2, 46 smart appliances 128, 129, 132 smart charging 11, 13, 128, 129, 130, 139, 214, 219 soils xiii, 2, 5, 7, 12, 14, 33, 35, 36, 43, 55, 76, 109, 146, 149, 152, 156, 159, 163, 164, 165, 166, 168, 169, 171, 172, 175, 179, 203, 228 solar panels/solar photovoltaics (PV) 5, 6, 9, 12, 13, 21, 31, 32, 33, 49, 53, 68, 69, 71, 74, 79, 87, 91, 135, 136, 137, 178, 179, 188, 204, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 213, 214, 216, 217, 221, 222, 223, 224–5 Sony 185 Soviet Union 18, 40, 52, 67–8, 89 soya 95 Spain 69, 130, 137 sport utility vehicles (SUVs) 106, 121, 192 spruce xiv, 152, 170 standard of living xv, 1, 5, 8, 10, 11, 14, 229, 233 staycations 201 steel x–xi, 6, 7, 8, 26, 28, 29, 53, 66, 73, 80, 87, 116, 117, 118, 119, 171, 184, 194–5 Stern, Nicholas: The Economics of Climate Change 41, 63 subsidies ix, 9, 10, 14, 32, 50, 51, 52, 53, 69, 71, 76, 79, 80, 89, 102, 109, 110, 113, 116, 123, 140, 154, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 172, 180, 193, 196, 198, 209, 215, 221, 222, 228, 230 sugar cane 35, 71, 95, 197, 198 sulphur pollution 22, 25, 28, 78, 191, 194, 197, 230 sustainable economic growth xv, 10, 12, 14, 61, 83, 92, 94, 97, 98, 105, 227, 233 Taiwan 42 taxation xii, 11, 62, 71, 72, 76, 80, 87, 89, 90, 91, 92, 97, 101, 102, 103, 106–24, 126, 127, 130, 133, 147, 150, 151–2, 153–4, 157, 159, 165, 169, 170, 192–6, 197, 198, 199, 203, 232, 234 technological change 98, 127, 141, 174–5, 221 Thatcher, Margaret 17 Thompson, Emma 6 3D printing 175, 204 Thunberg, Greta 6, 205 tidal shocks 159 top-down treaty frameworks 13, 38–57, 80, 110, 119 tourism/holidays 6, 22, 36, 88, 94, 107, 114, 128, 156, 201, 204–5 transport, reinventing 181–205 aviation 195, 201, 203–5 see also air transport batteries and charging networks 185–90 biofuels 196–8 electric alternative 183–5 hydrogen and fuel cells 190–2 innovation, R&D and new infrastructures 199–200 internal combustion engine 181–2 net gain and offsets (reducing travel versus buying out your pollution) 201–3 oil 183–4 polluter pays/carbon tax 192–6 shipping 203–5 urban regulation and planning 198–9 vehicle standards 196–8 see also individual type of transport Treasury, UK 120–2 trees, planting/sequestration and xi, xiii, xiv, 2, 7, 13, 14, 33, 34, 45, 76, 85, 94–6, 146, 148, 149–51, 152–3, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 168, 169, 172, 179, 203, 231 trophy project syndrome 133 Trump, Donald 2, 8, 41, 42, 48, 89, 99, 103, 121 25 Year Environment Plan xiii, 153, 170, 179–80 UK 47, 69 agriculture and 164, 166, 167, 173 carbon emissions (2015) 30 carbon price and 115, 120 Climate Change Act (2008) 66, 74–7 coal, phasing out of 24–5, 60–1, 77, 208 Committee on Climate Change (CCC) x–xi, 7, 74–6, 120, 164, 166, 169, 217, 235 deindustrialisation and 72–4 80 per cent carbon reduction target by 2050 74 electricity and 206, 208, 218, 219, 224 Helm Review (‘The Cost of Energy Review’) (2017) ix, 120, 141, 200, 210, 212, 215, 217, 220, 238 infrastructure 125, 132–3, 134, 137, 139–40 net zero passed into law (2019) 66 sequestration and 145, 150, 153, 154, 155, 156 transport and 195–6, 197, 198 unilateralism and 58–9, 60–1, 65, 66, 69, 72–7, 80 unilateralism xi, 8, 10, 11, 25, 58–80, 83, 105, 106, 119, 125, 143, 144, 155, 164, 167, 197, 203, 227 in Europe 66–80 incentive problem and 58–60 morality and 62–6 no regrets exemplars and/showcase examples of how decarbonisation can be achieved 60–2 place for 80 way forward and 80, 83 United Nations xi, xii, 6, 10, 17, 37, 38, 118 carbon cartel, ambition to create a 39–40, 43, 45, 46–7, 56 climate treaty processes xi, 6, 10, 13, 17–18, 36, 37, 38–57, 59, 80, 110, 118, 119, 204–5 see also individual treaty name Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 17–18, 36, 38, 59 miracle solution and 50–1 origins and philosophy of 41 Security Council 46, 47, 57 United States 8, 74, 139, 206 agriculture in 175, 176, 197 carbon emissions 8, 29, 30 China and 27–8, 42, 118 coal and 2, 24, 28, 29, 208 economic imperialism 45 energy independence 50 gas and 8, 20, 23, 24, 29, 50, 208 oil production 40, 50, 193 pollution since 1990 29 unilateralism and 58, 59, 74 UN climate treaty process and 38, 40–1, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 53, 54, 56 universal service obligations (USOs) 92, 126, 131, 202 utilitarianism 41, 63–4, 108, 110 VAT 117, 119–20, 121, 122, 232 Vesta 69 Volkswagen 196–7 water companies 76, 214, 230 water pollution/quality xiv, 12, 22, 61, 76, 152, 153, 165, 169, 170, 171, 172, 175, 177, 178, 179, 180, 232 Wen Jiabao 53, 59 wetlands 159, 233 wildflower meadow 164, 184 wind power 5, 9, 12, 21, 31, 32, 33, 49, 53, 68, 69–70, 71, 74, 75, 76, 78, 79, 91, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 178, 188, 191, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 213, 214–15, 216, 217, 219, 221, 222 wood pellets 67, 217, 230 Woodland Trust 156, 158 World Bank 51 World Trade Organization (WTO) 52, 56, 118 World War I 183 World War II (1939–45) 78, 90, 92, 101, 106, 171 Xi Jinping 27, 41, 42 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS So much is now discussed, written and published about climate change that it is impossible to keep track of all the ideas and conversations that have influenced my understanding of the subject.


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Living in a Material World: The Commodity Connection by Kevin Morrison

addicted to oil, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, commoditize, commodity trading advisor, computerized trading, diversified portfolio, Doha Development Round, Elon Musk, energy security, European colonialism, flex fuel, food miles, Great Grain Robbery, Hernando de Soto, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kickstarter, Long Term Capital Management, new economy, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, price mechanism, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transaction costs, uranium enrichment, young professional

The reason for this is that the Mop delegates are from the countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which does not include the United States. The US delegates only participate in the Cop discussions. 170 | LIVING IN A MATERIAL WORLD 3. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fourth assessment on climate change throughout 2007 through draft and final reports on the various issues associated with global warming from the scientific basis to adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC was constantly in the news and added to the expectation that the Bali meeting would conclude with strong action on combating climate change. 4. The Marketing Association of the English Wine Industry – http://www. englishwineproducers.com/history.htm 5.

But it could be another ten years before there is a track record with the seeds consistently producing the desired oil and before the breeding techniques for the plant are fine-tuned around the world. The Energy and Resource Institute (Teri), the New Delhi-based research group headed by Dr Rajendra K. Pachauri, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is also conducting research on jatropha. ‘We should not be debating whether there is land for fuel or land for food, we should debate what areas are suitable for non-edible crops,’ said Dr Adholeya, director of biotechnology and management in Teri’s bioresources division. His office was prone to intermittent power cuts during our discussions, a regular occurrence across India due to prolonged power shortages.

The IEA said in its World Energy Outlook that carbon capture and storage is assumed not to be deployed before 2030 because of doubts about whether technical and cost challenges can be overcome. The report states that the greatest reductions in future US electric sector CO2 emissions are likely to come from applying carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to nearly all new coal-based power plants coming online after 2020. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s ‘Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage – Summary for policymakers and technical summary’ gives a breakdown of the volume of emissions from each sector. CLIMATE | 177 54. In 1900 the global annual water use per capita was 350 cubic metres. In 2000, that number had grown to 642 cubic metres, said John Dickerson in his speech ‘The Economic Paradox That Spawned A Compelling Investment Theme’, at the Case for Water Investing conference in 2007. 55.


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The End of Growth by Jeff Rubin

Ayatollah Khomeini, Bakken shale, banking crisis, Bear Stearns, Berlin Wall, British Empire, business cycle, call centre, carbon footprint, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, deglobalization, energy security, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, flex fuel, full employment, ghettoisation, global supply chain, Hans Island, happiness index / gross national happiness, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, illegal immigration, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, Kickstarter, McMansion, Monroe Doctrine, moral hazard, new economy, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce, working poor, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game

But as we’ll explore later on, before global warming spells the end of the world, those same climate change scientists need to ask where China is going to get all the coal it’s expecting to burn. To fulfill the carbon emission projections made by groups like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Chinese economy may need to burn through the coal supplies of several planets. A few doors west, India’s fuel demands are also bolting higher. Overall, world coal consumption, according to the IPCC, is forecast to double over the next two decades. That covers the demand side of the equation. But we still need to ask where we’ll get all this coal. As growing power shortages across the country will attest, China is already struggling to come up with the 3.7 billion tons of coal it burns each year.

And the mainstream scientific community is coming closer to Lovelock’s view that global warming could unleash a climactic Armageddon if immediate steps aren’t taken to reduce emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the United Nations in 1988, comprises thousands of scientists and is the largest publisher of peer-reviewed climate change research in the world. In 2007, the organization shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for increasing public knowledge about climate change and laying the groundwork to counteract such change. In its latest comprehensive assessment report from 2007, the IPCC warns that human-generated emissions are causing global temperatures to rise.

At the same time, I’m not losing much sleep worrying about the worst-case scenarios from Lovelock or the IPCC. I find the IPCC’s assumptions for economic growth—and, more to the point, fuel demand—hard to swallow. In its forecasts, the IPCC takes a business-as-usual approach to resource consumption. But projections that model the future by extrapolating from the quantity of hydrocarbons we currently burn are implausible. The Achilles heel of the dire predictions for climate change is the computer modeling by IPCC scientists that assumes our hydrocarbon consumption will continue to increase at the same rate over the next few decades as it has in the past.


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The Revolt of the Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium by Martin Gurri

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Arthur Eddington, Ayatollah Khomeini, bitcoin, Black Swan, Burning Man, business cycle, citizen journalism, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collective bargaining, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, currency manipulation / currency intervention, dark matter, David Graeber, death of newspapers, disinformation, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, facts on the ground, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, housing crisis, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, job-hopping, Mohammed Bouazizi, Nate Silver, Occupy movement, Port of Oakland, Republic of Letters, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, too big to fail, traveling salesman, University of East Anglia, urban renewal, War on Poverty, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, Yochai Benkler, young professional

On November 19, 2009, someone who had hacked thousands of emails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, Britain, released them to the public on an obscure Russian server. The names on the emails belonged to the most eminent climatologists involved in global warming research, and included many of the leading contributors to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The release had a pointedly political purpose. A gathering of world leaders to coordinate policy on climate change was scheduled for December in Copenhagen. From the emails, an unflattering portrait emerged of the hierarchy of climatology, caught en famille. The scientists sounded vain, petty, intolerant, obsessed with media coverage, and abusive to outsiders.

Chao, Loreta. “Twitter, Other Apps Disrupted in Venezuela.” Wall Street Journal, February 21, 2014. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303775504579397430033153284. Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2013. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/docs/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf. Cohen-Friedman, Naama. “Social activists: The revolution is here.” Ynetnews.com, July 30, 2011. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4102107,00.html. “Colleague defends ‘ClimateGate’ professor.” BBC, December 4, 2009. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi /8396035.stm.

[207] Screen shot from video, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSAKcKMncfY. [208] Screen shot of video, http://hellaoccupyoakland.org/occupy-oakland-forum-police-actions/ . [209] Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2013, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/docs/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf . [210] Will Wrigley, “Hurricane Sandy Survivors Demand Climate Change Action From Obama,” Huffington Post, February 11, 2013, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/11/hurricane-sandy-climate-change_n_2664563.html


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The Planet Remade: How Geoengineering Could Change the World by Oliver Morton

Albert Einstein, Asilomar, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, colonial rule, Colonization of Mars, Columbian Exchange, decarbonisation, demographic transition, Elon Musk, energy transition, Ernest Rutherford, Garrett Hardin, germ theory of disease, Haber-Bosch Process, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Harrison: Longitude, John von Neumann, Kim Stanley Robinson, late capitalism, Louis Pasteur, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, orbital mechanics / astrodynamics, Philip Mirowski, planetary scale, Plutocrats, plutocrats, renewable energy transition, Scramble for Africa, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, Stewart Brand, Thomas Malthus

Marshall Institute, 154 germ theory of disease, 129 Germany: explosives industry, 190; geoengineering research, 159; nuclear industry, 17, 358; renewable energy (Energiewende), 19, 20, 106, 159; scientific research, 182 Gernsback, Hugo, 243 glaciers and ice: Arctic melting, 313, 362; and cloud brightening, 294–5, 336; and nuclear fallout, 44; protecting, 344–5, 371–2, 374; as record of earlier climates, 222–3, 227, 321, 344; and tracking climate change, 222–7; and volcanic eruptions, 86, 88 global cooling, 275–9 global warming: and counter-geoengineering, 341–2; ‘pause’ in, 3, 70, 108, 280; sulphur’s masking effect, 279–80; see also climate change Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 276 Goldsmith, Oliver, 83 Goodell, Jeff, 157 Gore, Al, 349 GPS, 118–19 Gran, Haaken Hasberg, 252 green movement: and carbon dioxide emissions, 141, 143; and CCS, 247; future scenarios, 351; and geoengineering, 28, 159, 261–2; influence on environmental policies, 19–20, 141; moderate green views on climate change, 135; and nuclear power, 16–17 ‘Greenfinger’ scenario, 352–4 greenhouse gases: and climate change, 65–71, 72–3; and farming, 224–5, 227; harm caused by those other than carbon dioxide, 146; historical atmospheric levels, 222–8; and ice ages, 231; see also carbon dioxide; methane; nitrous oxide; water vapour Greenland, 222, 342, 362, 371, 374 Grübler, Arnulf, 11 guano, 180 Haber, Fritz, 182, 190, 193, 202 Hadley Centre, 273 hail, 271 Hamblin, Jacob Darwin, 136, 309 Hamilton, Clive, 157, 248 Hampson, John, 278 Hansen, James, 90–2, 140, 276 Hardin, Garrett, 77–8 Harvard Forest, 97–8 Harvard University, 28 Havel, Václav, 351 Haywood, Jim, 293 HCFCs, 72, 146 health: effect of European ‘discovery’ of Americas on Native Americans, 227; and fossil fuels, 12, 16; germ theory of disease, 129; nitrogen pollution of water, 195–9; and nuclear power, 15–16, 45; and ozone layer, 49–50; vaccination programmes, 353; and veilmaking, 112, 281; see also air pollution Heard, Gerald, 41, 342 Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 296 Helin, Glo, 328 helium, 178 Hiroshima, 148, 190 holism, 77 Holmes, Arthur, 216 Holocene, 222–4, 226, 231, 236, 241 Hoskins, Brian, 69 House, Jo, 261 Hoyle, Fred, 278 human empire, 24–5, 125, 177–78, 209–10, 372 human prehistory, 229–31, 241–2 Hungary, 314 hurricanes, 284, 294–5, 295–6, 353 Huxley, Aldous, 41 Huxley, Julian, 313–14 Hyde, Roderick, 149, 151 hydrological cycle: future scenarios, 242, 362; and veilmaking, 114–18; workings of, 64, 67 hydropower, 3, 182 hydrosphere, 40 ice see glaciers and ice ice ages: 1960s and 1970s fear of human-generated, 275–8; artificially starting, 342–3; averting, 149, 278; and carbon dioxide in the oceans, 252–3, 254; and climate change, 231; as climate change phenomenon, 130; and greenhouse gases, 222–4; and human development, 230–1; next, 266–7, 277–8; enduring question of origins, 87–8, 98; and plant growth, 233–4; Younger Dryas, 226–7 ice–albedo feedback, 223, 276, 278, 342–3 IG Farben, 190 IMO see International Maritime Organization India: agriculture, 192; air pollution, 365; future scenarios, 364–6, 367–8; monsoons, 86, 364–6; population issues, 187; rainmaking schemes, 271; and veilmaking models, 121 Indonesia, 86–7 industrialization, 128, 177, 225–6, 228–9 infrared radiation, 65–6 Ingold, Tim, 57 interglacials, 222–4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 7, 140 internal combustion engine, 212 international agreements see air pollution: agreements; climate negotiations and agreements; nuclear weapons: treaties and test bans; UNFCCC International Energy Agency, 3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 246 International Maritime Organization (IMO), 282–3, 297–8 interstellar travel, 139, 150 Intertropical Convergence Zone, 293 IPCC see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Ireland, 127 iron fertilization, 252–9, 265 Israel, 16 James, William, 132 Jameson, Fredric, 310 JASON group, 136, 321 Jeanne-Claude, 344 Jefferson, Thomas, 127 Jesus Christ, 125 jet streams, 46–7 Jevons, Stanley, 180–1 Johnson, Lyndon B., 137, 139 Johnston, Harold, 51, 201 Jupiter, 37, 333 Kaempffert, Waldemar, 49, 314 Kármán, Theodore von, 136 Keeling, David, 75–6, 96, 98, 239–40 Keith, David: background, 150; death threats, 104; funds source, 28, 102, 156–7; and geoengineering, 101–2, 107, 149–50, 156–7, 160, 169, 286, 342, 358 Kennedy, John F., 59, 340 Kilimanjaro, Mount, 344–5 Kingsland, Sharon, 79 Kintisch, Eli, 157 Klein, Naomi, 225 Koch, Robert, 129 Krakatau, 86–7, 108 Kravitz, Ben, 113, 116–17 Kruger, Tim, 163 Kyoto conference (1997), 3 Kyoto protocol (2005), 140–1, 144, 145 Lackner, Klaus, 27–8 Langmuir, Irving, 269–70, 272, 295 Latham, John: career, 272–3, 283; cloud work, 268, 272–4, 283–4, 285–8, 294–5, 298–301, 323; home, 298 Latham, Mike, 268, 300 Latour, Bruno, 171, 271 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 148–51, 317, 319, 334, 339 Le Châtelier, Henri Louis, 182 Leith, Chuck, 317 Lenton, Tim, 290 Lesseps, Ferdinand de, 128 Levenson, Tom, 324 LeVier, Tony, 57 Levitt, Stephen, 154–5 Lewis, Simon, 227 Libby, Willard, 45–6 Liebig, Justus von, 178–9, 237, 251–2 lightning, 272, 299–301 lightning conductors, 112, 127 lime and liming, 250–1, 363, 371 lithosphere, 40 Livermore see Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Lobell, David, 236, 237, 238, 240 Locher, Fabien, 129 Long, Jane, 20 Lotka, Alfred, 75, 78–9, 175, 217–19 Lovell, Jim, 60 Lovelock, James, 75, 275, 278, 282, 287, 290 Lowell, Percival, 131, 132, 133, 139 McCarthy, Cormac, 309 MacCracken, Mike, 319, 327 MacCready, Paul, 299–300 MacDonald, Gordon, 136–7 McKibben, Bill, 125 Maddox, John, 204 Malthus, Thomas, 180, 185–6, 203 Manhattan Project, 42, 148, 312, 321 Marchetti, Cesare, 137, 246, 259 Mariner 9, 89 Mars: canals, 131–3; colonizing, 139, 140; craters, 322; expensive village on, 374; stratosphere, 37, 89 Martin, John, 252–4 Marx, Karl, 179–80, 205 Maryland, University of, 225 Masco, Joe, 310 Maslin, Mark, 227 Mauritius, 127 Mead, Margaret, 327 measles, 227 Mediterranean region, 116, 198, 230, 241, 375 Medwin, Thomas, 332 mending; 359, 372 mesosphere, 41 Meteorological Office, 293, 294 methane: and climate change, 65, 72; and farming, 224–5; historical atmospheric levels, 223; human responsibility for emissions, 72, 146; positive feedback due to, 241; see also natural gas Mexico, 90–1, 189, 190–1, 192 Mexico, Gulf of, 186, 195–6 Middle East, 284–5 the military, and asteroid impact work, 334–5, 339–41; and cabin ecology, 75; and geoengineering, 315; and climate modification. 158, 270; and cloud seeding. 270, 272; and geophysical warfare, 135–7; and nuclear energy, 16; and nuclear weapons, 42, 306, 308–9 mirrors, space-based, 149, 150–1 Mitchell, Edgar, 77 mitigation see adaptation and mitigation monsoons: future scenarios, 364–6, 367–8, 371; and geoengineering, 292; prehistoric, 241; and volcanic eruptions, 86, 115 Montreal protocol (1987), 53, 110, 143–4 moon: Clementine mission to, 334; craters, 322; Earth seen from, 60, 63, 65; planned human moonbases, 75; planned nuclear explosion on, 338, 339; appearance changed by volcanic eruptions on Earth, 86 Mooney, Pat, 23 More, Sir Thomas, 124, 127 Morrison, David, 328, 330–1 Mossop, S.

When I was told on reasonable authority that my risks of a cardiac event in the next fifteen years or so were about 6 per cent, I resolved to make some changes in the way I lived my life. A little later I actually managed to act on those resolutions. A straightforward reading of the latest assessment by the scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would suggest that the risks are higher than those I just gave; many scientists and almost all environmental activists would put them much higher. But if you think, as I do, that figures as low as 50 per cent and 5 per cent justify action, it doesn’t really matter for the purposes of this discussion if the figures are actually higher.

A Case Against Climate Engineering Polity Press Ingold, Tim (2000) ‘Globes and Spheres: The Topology of Environmentalism’ in The Perception of the Environment: Essays in Livelihood, Dwelling and Skill, Routledge IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis – see http://www.climatechange2013.org/ IPCC (2014a) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – see http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/ IPCC (2014b) Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change – see http://mitigation2014.org/ Jessee, E. Jerry (2014) ‘A Heightened Controversy: Nuclear Weapons Testing, Radioactive Tracers, and the Dynamic Atmosphere’ in Toxic Airs: Body, Place, and Planet in Historical Perspective eds James R.


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The Ones We've Been Waiting For: How a New Generation of Leaders Will Transform America by Charlotte Alter

"side hustle", 4chan, affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, basic income, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, carbon footprint, clean water, collective bargaining, Columbine, corporate personhood, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, disinformation, Donald Trump, double helix, East Village, ending welfare as we know it, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, gig economy, glass ceiling, Google Hangouts, housing crisis, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job-hopping, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, Lyft, mandatory minimum, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, mass incarceration, McMansion, medical bankruptcy, microaggression, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, Nate Silver, obamacare, Occupy movement, passive income, pre–internet, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, Snapchat, Steve Bannon, TaskRabbit, too big to fail, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, universal basic income, unpaid internship, We are the 99%, white picket fence, working poor, Works Progress Administration

., 22 Hogg, David, 41, 247 Houlahan, Chrissy, 268, 270 Howe, Neil, xiv Hultgren, Randy, 206, 231, 242 Hurricane Harvey, 193 Hurricane Katrina, 43 Hurricane Maria, 225 Hurricane Sandy, 129 Hurst, Chris, 212 identity politics, 60–61 immigration, 160, 254, 279–80 income inequality deregulation and privatization and, 219 in 1920s, 216–17, 219 Ocasio-Cortez and, 25 parenting and, 35 Reagan’s policies and, 30 Indigenous Environmental Network, 182 individual mandate, Affordable Care Act, 108, 110 Indivisible resistance, 180, 204–7 Inhofe, James, 159 Instagram, 273 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 190 International Indigenous Youth Council, 182 internet, 55, 56, 57 See also social media intersectionality, 199 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 190 iPhone, 55, 57 iPod, 57 Iraq invasion, 67 Iraq War. See War on Terror Isaacson, Walter, 55 Iweala, Uzodinma, 4 Jackson, Jesse, 119 Jefferson, Thomas, xiii, 200–201 Jones, Eric, 140 Journal of Social Psychology, 41 Justice Democrats, 209 Kavanaugh, Brett, 203 Kennedy, Caroline, 87 Kennedy, John F., xiii, 29, 74 Kennedy, Ted, 87, 94, 107, 249 Kerry, John, 76 Keystone XL pipeline, 158, 181–82 kidnappings, 36 Kids These Days (Harris), 35 Kim, Andy, 111 Kim Jong Un, 254 King, Coretta Scott, 195 King, Martin Luther, Jr., xiii, 29–30 King, Steve, 197 Kinsley, Michael, 32, 285 Kinzinger, Adam, 158 Klein, Joe, 86 Koch brothers, 124, 131, 149, 154–55 Kushner, Jared, xvii Lakota Sioux, 181–82 Lanza, Adam, 147 latchkey kids, 33 Lauer, Matt, 4 Lawrence, John A., 276 Lazerson, Marvin, 46 Lean In (Sandberg), 153–54 Lehman Brothers, 93 Lepore, Jill, 219 Lesser, Eric, xxi, 104, 132, 141–42, 153–57 elected to Massachusetts State Senate, 111, 141 Obama’s 2004 Democratic National Convention speech and, 81 on Obama’s leadership style, 112 as special assistant to David Axelrod, 105–9 as staffer for Obama’s first presidential campaign, 83–84, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90 trans-state railroad championed by, 141–42 “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” (Romney), 104 leveraged buyouts, 28–29 Levin, Ezra, 124–25 Indivisible resistance and, 180, 204–5 2012 presidential election and, 170–71, 172–73, 176, 178–80 Lieberman, Joe, 107 Lincoln, Abraham, xiii Litman, Amanda, 209–12 Logan, Eric, 144–45, 286 Londrigan, Betsy Dirksen, 241 Look Who’s Talking (film), 33 Love, Mia, 155–56, 158, 264 Lovett, Jon, 111 Lucas, Quinton, 135 Lumumba, Chokwe Antar, 223 Luria, Elaine, 270 Lyft, 99 Mackler, Camille, 202 McBath, Lucy, 268 McCain, John, xiii, 90, 147, 206–7 McCain, Meghan, 260 McCarthy, Kevin, 155 McCaskill, Claire, 87 McChrystal, Stanley, 71 McConnell, Mitch, xv, 51, 147, 277 McDonald, Laquan, 121 Mckesson, DeRay, 171, 172 Mad, 285 Make the Road New York, 202 Malcolm X, 29–30 Mallory, Tamika, 199–200 Mannheim, Karl, xiv March for Our Lives, 247 March for Science, 204 Marcinko, Richard, 14 marijuana issue, 160 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, 293 Markey, Ed, 281 Martin, Trayvon, 118 mass shootings Columbine High School shooting, 27 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting, 293 Parkland, Florida, shooting, 41, 247 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, 147 Virginia Tech shooting, 53 Mast, Brian, 158 Me Generation.

They had reason to be dramatic: in 2018, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report that warned that “there is no historical precedent” for the economic transformation needed to prevent global temperatures from rising to catastrophic levels; just half a degree, they warned, could cost millions of lives. Sunrise wasn’t alone. Young people all over the world were realizing that the adults weren’t going to make their governments address climate change—so they would have to do it themselves. In 2018, a few months after the release of the IPCC report, a soft-spoken fifteen-year-old Swedish girl with Asperger’s syndrome named Greta Thunberg gave an electrifying speech at the annual United Nations climate talks in Poland that excoriated adult leaders for failing to act boldly to prevent climate catastrophe.

., 31, 53, 71, 75–76, 102 Buttigieg, Pete, xv, xxi, 3–8, 132, 142–45, 282–87 academic accomplishments of, 7–8 addresses Women’s March, 198 announces presidential candidacy, 287 black community and, 144–45 childhood of, 5–7 digital revolution and, 61–62 economic development initiatives of, 143–44 elected mayor of South Bend, 143 enlistment and service in military of, 73–77 essay on Bernie Sanders written by, 7–8 future of Democratic party and, 289–91 generational argument for presidential candidacy of, 284–85 at Harvard, 3–5, 8 marriage of, 146 as mayor of South Bend, 143–45 media appearances of, 283–84 moderate views and personality of, 285–86 Muslim travel ban protests and, 202 9/11 terrorist attacks and, 3–4 Ocasio-Cortez and, 290 personality of, 4–5, 6 policing and, 144 presidential campaign of, 284–87 sexuality of, 7, 145–46 on socialism, 218 technocratic solutions embraced by, 143 work on Obama 2008 presidential campaign, 85–86 BuzzFeed, 52 cancel culture, 37 capitalism, 213, 214–15, 216, 221 Carlson, Tucker, 222 Carr, Justin, 127 Carter, Lee, 223 Carter, Michael, 216–17, 220–21, 228 Casten, Sean, 241 Castile, Philandro, 121 cell phones, 55, 57 Chadwick, Sarah, 247 Chakrabarti, Saikat, 209, 222, 279–80, 281 Chetty, Raj, 137 child safety, 36–38 China, 47 Chrysler, 102, 103–4, 105 Churchill, Winston, 151 Cisneros, Gil, 270 Citizens United decision, 114 Civilian Conservation Corps, 217 civil rights movement, 29 The Class of ’74: Congress after Watergate and the Roots of Partisanship (Lawrence), 276 Clean Power Plan, 196 climate change, 31, 157–59 Crenshaw and, 254 Curbelo and, 157–58 Green New Deal and, 191, 273–75, 278–79 hurricane frequency and intensity and, 43 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on, 190 Paris Climate Agreement, United States withdrawal from, xvi, 158, 195, 258 Republicans and, 157–59 Stefanik and, 157–58 student protests and, 190–91 Sunrise Movement and, 189–90, 191 Thunberg speeches on, 190 Trump’s views on, 195–96 Climate Solutions Caucus, 157–59 Clinton, Bill, xvi, 27, 30–31, 106, 169, 249 balanced budget of, 31 crime bill of, 30–31 earned income tax credit and, 30 Clinton, Hillary, 86–87, 106, 166, 167, 169–70, 234–35 CNN, 172, 173, 175, 242 coaches, 51 Coakley, Martha, 107 Cobb, Jelani, 119 Cohen, Ben, 115 Cohen, Michael, 252, 261 Colbert, Stephen, 266, 284, 288 colleges/universities administrators hired by, increase in, 50–51 college process and, 47 cut in funding for public universities, 50 discrimination claims related to admissions criteria, 47–48 increase in number of students attending, 47–48 international student enrollment, 47 race as factor in admissions process, 48 reasons for increase in cost of, 50–51 student enrollment and, 50 student loan debt and, 44–52 Collins, Susan, 206–7 Columbine High School shooting, 27 communism, 213 Congress, 196–98 age of members, during Trump presidency, 196–97 freshman class of 2018, 265–81 out of touch with changes in American society, 196–98 2018 elections, 226–45 Watergate babies, 276 Consumer Financial Protection Board (CFPB), 194–95 Costello, Ryan, 264 Couric, Katie, 4, 53 Crazy Horse, 181 credit default swaps, 28–29 Crenshaw, Dan, xxi, 13–14 belief in War on Terror of, 66–67 campaign for and election to House of Representatives, 250–52 childhood of, 13–14 loses eye in IED blast on battle damage assessment (BDA) mission, 65–66 medals received by, 66 Navy SEAL career of, 63–66 9/11 terrorist attacks and, 13 on outrage culture, 252 on ROTC scholarship to Tufts University, 14 on Trump and Trump’s policies, 252–57 2012 presidential election and, 173–75, 177–78 Crenshaw, Kimberlé, 199 Crenshaw, Tara, 251 crime bill of 1994 (Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act), 30–31 Crow, Jason, 270 crowd-sourced collaboration, 55 Crowley, Joe, 224, 226, 228, 229 Cruz, Ted, xviii, 147 Curbelo, Carlos, 155–57, 258 bipartisanship of, 161 climate change and, 157–58 defeated in reelection bid, 2018, 264 elected to House of Representatives, 155–56 immigration legislation sponsored by, 160 reelected to House of Representatives, 2016, 262 on Trump and Trump’s policies, 262–64 2012 presidential election and, 169 youth of, 156 DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program), 195, 263 Dakota Access Pipeline, 181–82 Davidson, Pete, 251, 253 Day Without Immigrants, 204 Dean, Howard, 82, 86, 90 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, 195, 263 DeGroot, Jake, 117 democratic socialism.


pages: 193 words: 51,445

On the Future: Prospects for Humanity by Martin J. Rees

23andMe, 3D printing, air freight, Alfred Russel Wallace, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, Benoit Mandelbrot, blockchain, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, dark matter, decarbonisation, demographic transition, distributed ledger, double helix, effective altruism, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, global village, Hyperloop, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Johannes Kepler, John Conway, life extension, mandelbrot fractal, mass immigration, megacity, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, quantitative hedge fund, Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart grid, speech recognition, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Stanislav Petrov, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, supervolcano, technological singularity, the scientific method, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Walter Mischel, Yogi Berra

Doubling of CO2, if all other aspects of the atmosphere were unchanged, would cause 1.2 degrees (centigrade) of warming, averaged over the Earth—this is a straightforward calculation. But what is less well understood are associated changes in water vapour, cloud cover, and ocean circulation. We don’t know how important these feedback processes are. The fifth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2013, presented a spread of projections, from which (despite the uncertainties) some things are clear. In particular, if annual CO2 emissions continue to rise unchecked we risk triggering drastic climate change—leading to devastating scenarios resonating centuries ahead, including the initiation of irreversible melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica, which would eventually raise sea levels by many metres.

See also intelligent robots insects as food, 25 intelligence: bottlenecks to development of life with, 155–56, 158; posthuman, 169–70, 194; of scientists, 202–3. See also AI (artificial intelligence); aliens, intelligent; inorganic intelligences intelligent design: biological, 196–98; technological, 178 intelligent robots, 8, 152–53. See also inorganic intelligences Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 39, 40, 58 International Atomic Energy Agency, 218 international institutions, 10, 32, 218–19 International Space Station, 140, 146 international tensions, 100 International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), 54 internet: leveling global education and health, 83–84, 220–21; national and religious divisions on, 100; security on, 220.

It’s important to note that the ‘headline figure’ of a global temperature increase is just an average; what makes the effect more disruptive is that the rise is faster in some regions and can trigger drastic shifts in regional weather patterns. The climate debate has been marred by too much blurring between science, politics, and commercial interests. Those who don’t like the implications of the IPCC projections have rubbished the science rather than calling for better science. The debate would be more constructive if those who oppose current policies recognise the imperative to refine and firm up the predictions—not just globally but, even more important, for individual regions. Scientists in Cambridge and California13 are pursuing a so-called Vital Signs project, which aims to use massive amounts of climatic and environmental data to find which local trends (droughts, heat waves, and such) are the most direct correlates of the mean temperature rise.


pages: 614 words: 176,458

Meat: A Benign Extravagance by Simon Fairlie

agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, Boris Johnson, call centre, carbon footprint, Community Supported Agriculture, deindustrialization, en.wikipedia.org, food miles, Food sovereignty, Garrett Hardin, Haber-Bosch Process, household responsibility system, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Just-in-time delivery, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, megacity, Northern Rock, Panamax, peak oil, refrigerator car, scientific mainstream, sexual politics, stem cell, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, Tragedy of the Commons, University of East Anglia, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

page=-1 71 This figure is dependent on some variables such as the amount of OH in the atmosphere. Environmental Change Institute (2006), op cit. 34; IPCC (2001), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 4.2, Cambridge University Press, 2001. IPCC (1995), Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. Working Group 1. Summary for Policymakers. International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UNEP, 1995. 72 Stern, N (2007), The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge, p 223. 73 IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Chapter 2,pp 140-142 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf 74 DEFRA (2008), UK Climate Change Sustainability Indicator: 2006 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Final Figure,http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/2008/080131a.htm; EIA (2008), Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the US 2008, ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057308.pdf; Padma, T V, India and Climate Change: Facts and Figures, Sci Dev Net, 31 August 2006, http://www.scidev.net/en/climate-change-and-energy/mitigation/features/india-climate-change-facts-and-figures.html 75 Farmers Weekly (2007), ‘Milk Yield Holds the Key to Lower Carbon Footprint’, Farmers Weekly, 20 August 2007. 76 FAO (2006), op cit 77 IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC (Introduction) eds B Metz et al, Cambridge University Press, 2007, pp 103-5. 78 Ibid., p 104. 79 Goodland, Robert (1998), ‘Environmental Sutainability in Agriculture: Bioethical and Religious Arguments Against Carnivory’, in J Lemons et al (eds), Ecological Sustainability and Integrity, Kluwer, 1998, pp 235-65. 80 Goodland, R and Anhang, J (2009), Livestock and Climate Change: What if the Key Actors in Climate Change are Cows, Pigs and Chickens?

Jonathon Porritt used it in advertisements for Compassion in World Farming; the Green Party MEP, Caroline Lucas, cited it in speeches and radio interviews (though after I had telephoned her about it, she did acknowledge publicly that the figure had been challenged). And in September 2008, Rajendra Pachauri, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, endorsed the 18 per cent figure at a talk in London hosted (once again) by Compassion in World Farming. The IPCC is the Nobel prize-winning body of scientists whose word is normally taken as gospel on matters relating to global warming. Virtually all of its statistics are hedged by provisos, subject to intensive peer review and backed up by volumes of impenetrable technical data, so it was strangely cavalier of Mr Pachauri to be volunteering a figure which far exceeded most other estimates made by reputable scientific organizations, including the IPCC itself, which claims that the whole of agriculture only contributes 10–12 per cent of global GHG emissions.7 The World Resources Institute’s global warming flow chart, which is based on 1996 IPCC statistics, allocates just 5.1 per cent of global greenhouse gases to ‘livestock and manure’.8 This discrepancy does not necessarily mean that one figure is wrong and the other right.

International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UNEP, 1995. 72 Stern, N (2007), The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge, p 223. 73 IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Chapter 2,pp 140-142 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf 74 DEFRA (2008), UK Climate Change Sustainability Indicator: 2006 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Final Figure,http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/2008/080131a.htm; EIA (2008), Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the US 2008, ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057308.pdf; Padma, T V, India and Climate Change: Facts and Figures, Sci Dev Net, 31 August 2006, http://www.scidev.net/en/climate-change-and-energy/mitigation/features/india-climate-change-facts-and-figures.html 75 Farmers Weekly (2007), ‘Milk Yield Holds the Key to Lower Carbon Footprint’, Farmers Weekly, 20 August 2007. 76 FAO (2006), op cit 77 IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC (Introduction) eds B Metz et al, Cambridge University Press, 2007, pp 103-5. 78 Ibid., p 104. 79 Goodland, Robert (1998), ‘Environmental Sutainability in Agriculture: Bioethical and Religious Arguments Against Carnivory’, in J Lemons et al (eds), Ecological Sustainability and Integrity, Kluwer, 1998, pp 235-65. 80 Goodland, R and Anhang, J (2009), Livestock and Climate Change: What if the Key Actors in Climate Change are Cows, Pigs and Chickens?


pages: 406 words: 120,933

The Great Lakes Water Wars by Peter Annin

clean water, Donald Trump, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), off grid, Ronald Reagan, urban sprawl

Earth Science Communications Team, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, “Global Temperature,” https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/, accessed December 20, 2017. 5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Summary for Policy-makers,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland (2013), 23. 6. IPCC, Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment, Geneva, Switzerland (2014), 6. 7. IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Geneva, Switzerland (2001), 12. 8.

But if current global emission trends continue, this century could see average global surface temperatures rise by 3.7 degrees Celsius, (nearly 7°F), according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s leading climate institution.5 That would drive transformative environmental change throughout the globe, creating a very different world from what we have today. As scientists have long predicted, sea levels have already begun to rise, global ice cover has decreased, glaciers have receded, storms have become more severe, as have droughts. What’s more, the IPCC warned that human-caused climate change has already affected the global water cycle. “In many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality.”6 The IPCC has long predicted that tension over water will reach new heights during this century.

See also benefit standard India, 7 Indiana Compact adoption, 239 Dyer case, 255–56, 265 Fort Wayne, 272 Lowell diversion proposal, 153–67 Mud Creek Irrigation District and, 175–78, 182 Pleasant Prairie, Wisconsin, and, 142 St. John, 272 Valparaiso, 272 “water personality” of, 223 indigenous First Nations and Native American people, 13, 135–36, 186–87, 283 Injerd, Daniel, 12, 52, 101–8, 115–16, 175, 238, 283, 286, 291, 298 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 42 Interior Department, US, 9 International Agreement. See also Annex Implementing Agreements adoption of, 242, 301 signing of, 19–20 water future and, 301 working group and, 221–22 International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, 31, 33 International Joint Commission (IJC) blue-ribbon report, 207–8 creation of, 12 on diversion threat, 12–15 on Illinois diversion, 99–100 on Long Lac and Ogoki, 128, 133 “Plan 2014” (IJC), 55–57 on St.


pages: 412 words: 113,782

Business Lessons From a Radical Industrialist by Ray C. Anderson

addicted to oil, Albert Einstein, banking crisis, Bear Stearns, business cycle, carbon footprint, centralized clearinghouse, clean water, cleantech, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, dematerialisation, distributed generation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fear of failure, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invisible hand, late fees, Mahatma Gandhi, market bubble, music of the spheres, Negawatt, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old-boy network, peak oil, renewable energy credits, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, supply-chain management, urban renewal, Y2K

It makes you wonder, what part of unsustainable do they not understand? The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently issued a report that lays the blame for global climate disruption at our feet with a more than 90 percent certainty. They said, “Greenhouse gas forcing has very likely (>90 percent) caused most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years. This conclusion takes into account … the possibility that the response to solar forcing could be underestimated by climate models. Many climate doubters and global warming deniers have raised some serious questions about how the IPCC came up with that 90 percent figure—indeed, about how they decided on anything at all.

It would be like giving a convicted thief a say over the wording of the laws that govern theft. You can bet the final text would go light on thievery. So goes the politicized UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The doubters also believe the IPCC report seriously overstates the impact of human emissions on the climate. But the actual observed climate data clearly show the report dramatically understates it. Here’s just one example, and there are many. Last April (2008), in an article titled “Conservative Climate,” Scientific American noted that objections by Saudi Arabia and China forced the IPCC to remove a sentence stating that the impact of human greenhouse gas emissions on the earth’s recent warming is five times greater than that of the sun.

use of petroleum-derived raw materials vision for 2020 waste-control program Interface-Americas division Interface Architectural Resources Interface Cool Fuel Card Interface Environmental Foundation Interface Europe Interface Flooring Systems InterfaceFLOR InterfaceRAISE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Truck interstate highway system investments accounting standards for assessing underperforming Iranian revolution (1972) Iran-Iraq war Iraq war IRS Isdell, Neville ISO 14001 certification Jackson, Wes Johnson, Huey Johnson Foundation Jones, Stuart Jordan, Slug Just carpet Kennedy, John F.


pages: 345 words: 92,063

Power, for All: How It Really Works and Why It's Everyone's Business by Julie Battilana, Tiziana Casciaro

affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, algorithmic bias, Asperger Syndrome, blood diamonds, Boris Johnson, British Empire, call centre, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, collective bargaining, conceptual framework, coronavirus, Covid-19, COVID-19, different worldview, disinformation, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, feminist movement, fundamental attribution error, future of work, gig economy, hiring and firing, impact investing, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of movable type, Jeff Bezos, job satisfaction, Joshua Gans and Andrew Leigh, Mahatma Gandhi, means of production, mega-rich, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, Occupy movement, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, Ralph Waldo Emerson, ride hailing / ride sharing, Second Machine Age, shareholder value, sharing economy, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits, Steven Pinker, surveillance capitalism, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Tim Cook: Apple, transatlantic slave trade, union organizing, zero-sum game

But remember, agitation without innovation means complaints without ways forward, and innovation without orchestration means ideas without impact.8 PUTTING AN ISSUE ON THE PUBLIC AGENDA In August 2018, Greta Thunberg, the teenager who has since become the face of the youth climate movement, drew the now-famous words “Skolstrejk för Klimatet” (School Strike for Climate) onto poster board and started skipping school, first every day and later every Friday, to protest her government’s inaction on climate change on the steps of the Swedish Parliament. Two months later, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report stating that, without major steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth’s temperature would increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius between 2030 and 2052, causing extreme weather events unlike anything we’d ever seen before.9 Emboldened by Greta, and alarmed by the IPCC report, teenagers around the world were inspired to participate in Fridays for Future, the international coalition started by Greta and other students.

., 212n7, 230n12, 230n14 Grunitzky, Claude, 228n39 Gutenberg, Johannes, 142, 143 Hammurabi (Babylonian king), 100 Harari, Yuval Noah, 243n3, 245n31, 250n85 Harry, Prince (Duke of Sussex), 30 Harvard Study of Adult Development, 49 Heimans, Jeremy, 141 Heroic Failure: Brexit and the Politics of Pain (O’Toole), 52 hierarchies of power legitimacy narratives and, 100–04, 232n33 legitimization of, 92–94 obedience to authority, 94–97, 229n8 perpetuation of, 27 power infernal trio, 97–98 powerlessness and, 98–100 stability of, 90, 91–92, 197 stereotypes and, 104–8, 169 stickiness of, xvii, 91–92, 108 Hitler, Adolf, 9 Hobbit, The (Tolkien), ix Ho Chi Minh, 15, 16 Hollande, François, 24, 68 Holocaust, 20–21 Homer, 101 Homestead Strike, 111 Hominem te memento, 34, 214n49 L’Homme Providentiel, 16 Hossain, Mashroof, 34–35 hubris awareness of impermanence, 38 cultivating humility and, 30, 34–36, 36 Greek myths of, 23 power sharing and accountability reinforced, 39, 166, 172–73 Hughes, Debbie, 93 human needs See safety, self-esteem, valued resources human rights, xiv, 133–34, 136, 156, 157 humility, 30, 34–36, 36, 38, 195, 215n55 Huxley, Aldous, 164 imbalance of power, 111–15, 153–54, 182, 189–90, 194 impermanence, 34, 38, 115 impermanence awareness, 38, 115 Implicit Association Test, 104 Indignados, 118 infernal trio, 97–98, 102 informal power of networks, 72–74, 72, 84 innovation, 119–20, 125–30, 147–49, 154, 195, 196 In Praise of Scribes (Trithemius), 142, 143 Institutions, 104, 233n47 institutional change, 109, 235n64, 235n65, 235–36n66 interdependence awareness, xv, 32, 38, 97, 115, 195 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 120 interpersonal liking familiarity, 63 similarity, 63, 88–90 intoxication of power, 20–22, 173 Johnson, Boris, 52 Johnson, Lyndon Baines, 14, 15, 16, 76 Johnson Space Center (JSC), 167, 168 Johnson treatment, 14 jointly developed power, 8, 162–63, 178–79 Jost, John, 231n19, 231n20, 231n22 Kant, Immanuel, 55 Kanter, Rosabeth Moss, 168–69 Karman, Tawakkol, 186 Kegan, Robert, 214n40, 258n84 Keltner, Dacher, 211n7, 212n16, 230n12, 230n17, 237n71 Kennedy, John F., 14 Keohane, Robert O., 261n14 Khan, Lina M., 159 King, Martin Luther, Jr., 33, 92, 119, 124 Kirchner, Nestór, 131, 132 Krackhardt, David, 71, 225n7, 226n8, 226n16 Lady Gaga, 85 Lasn, Kalle, 118, 119 Legion of Honor, 47, 219–20n30 legitimizing stories, 91–92, 101–04, 123 levers of persuasion, 10, 210n15 LGBTQ+, 88, 109, 117, 131–33, 136–37 LinkedIn, 153 Livingston, Robert W., 172 Lopez, Sandra, 177, 179–80 Lord of the Rings, The (Tolkien), ix–x Lorenzetti, Ambrogio, 165 Lukes, Steven, 261n5 Machiavelli, Niccolò, xvi, 19, 227n21 machine-learning algorithms, 148–49, 150 Magee, Joe C., 212n7, 230n14, 230n18, 231n24, 237n72, 262n22 Mandela, Nelson, 56, 119 Manuel’s story, 70–73 marriage equality, 131–37, 242n34 Marx, Karl, 110, 236n68 Maslow, Abraham, 217–18n15 Mayo, Tony, 171 McEvily, Bill, 86, 226n9 mechanical movable-type printing press, 142 Mencius (Mengzi), 55 meritocracy, 103, 169–70 #MeToo movement, 117, 137, 141, 147–48, 156 Meyer, John W., 233n46 Microsoft, 157 Milgram, Stanley, 95–96, 229n8 misunderstanding power fallacies of, xii–xiv Mjumbe, Nezuma, 144–46, 161 mobile health technology, 149 monopoly, 11 Montesquieu (Charles-Louis de Secondat), 182–83 moral principles, 55, 56, 164, 192 moral purity, 25, 30, 212n21, 213n30 Morrison, Toni, 8 motivation See safety, self-esteem, valued resources movement fatigue, 137 mutual dependence, 3, 7, 114, 181, 200 Na’Allah, Bala Ibn, 184 Naím, Moisés, 141 NASA Innovation and Inclusion Council, 170 Johnson Space Center (JSC), 167–68 Transparency and Opportunity Program (TOP), 171–73 National Domestic Workers Alliance, 177–79 National Health Service, 67 Nazi concentration camps, 21 negativity bias, 19 neoliberal capitalist system, 46, 189 Netflix, 153 networks betweenness, 79, 80, 153 informal power, 70–74, 71, 77–81, 84–89 network diversity, 84–89 organizational networks, 73–90 popularity and prominence, 73, 79, 227n25 power mapping, 74–84, 88, 128, 143–46, 191, 194 similarity and social relationships, 82–83, 89–90 Nietzsche, Friedrich, 57 Ning’s story, 61, 63–64 nonviolent civil disobedience, 123–24 Nosek, Brian A., 231n19, 231n20 #NoToSocialMediaBill, 184 Nye, Joseph S., 261n14 Obama Administration, 85 Occupy Wall Street, 118, 119 Ochoa, Ellen, 167–72 Odyssey (Homer), 101 Ogundipe, Tope, 184–85 O’Neil, Cathy, 150 online agitation, 137 Oppenheimer, Harry, 9, 10 orchestration, 119–20, 130–37, 154, 195, 196 organizational networks, 73 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 161 O’Toole, Fintan, 52 oversight and accountability, 173–77 panopticon, 151, 245n30 Pansardi, Pamela, 262n21 Paradigm, 184 Parsons, Talcott, 261n17 participative democracy initiatives, 191 People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA), 57 perceptions of power, 25–27 personal development, 29–40, 97, 135, 163, 170–71, 195 Pettit, Philip, 43 Pfeffer, Jeffrey, 222n49, 260n7, 261n6, 261n13 Phillips, Nelson, 262n22 Pichai, Sundar, 155, 158 Piketty, Thomas, 219n28, 238n84 Pinker, Steven A., 146 Pitkin, Hanna F., 202, 262n20 Plato, ix, 198 Poo, Ai-jen, 178 positional power fallacy, xii–xiii possession of power fallacy, xii, 16, 211n25 Powell, Walter W., 233n46 power, definition of, 1–2, 199–202 power imbalance, 3, 7, 111–15, 201 power’s psychological effects, 20–40 cultivating empathy, 30–33, 36, 38, 195 cultivating humility, 30, 34–36, 36, 38, 195, 215n55 developmental process and, 29–30 experience of power, 22–25 intoxication of power, 20–22, 173 morality and, 27–29, 164, 192, 194 perceptions of power, 25–27 selection, 36–38 structural safeguards, 38–40 power is dirty fallacy, xiii, 19–40 power mapping accuracy levels, 75–77, 194, 227n18 challenging environments, 81–84 community, 191 diversity and accuracy of, 88 endorsers, fence-sitters, and resisters, 77–78 fundamentals of power and, 195 keys to, 40 reputational power, 74–75, 226n16 technological change and, 143, 146 power from rank and role, 69–70 power sharing and accountability organizational, 166, 167–73, 191–92 societal, 182–84, 192, 256n63 power vs. authority, xii–xiii, 58–61, 66–68, 73 power-with, 8 Pratto, Felicia, 231n26 Prince, The (Machiavelli), xvi, 19, 227n21 principal-agent problem, 173 Protestant Reformation, 143 pseudoscience, 94, 101–3 psychological resources, 2, 47–51 psychological safety, 35, 39 public narrative, 122–23, 239–40n14 transportation, 135 Purpose of Power, The: How We Come Together When We Fall Apart (Garza), 139 #QuellaVoltaChe, 137 Rabelais, François, 164 Rachid, María, 131–37 racism, 82–84, 89–90, 91–92, 104–08, 117 See also stereotypes Ramarajan, Lakshmi, 169 Ranganathan, Aruna, 47 Rawls, John, 193 Reading the Mind in the Eyes, 22 rebalancing power, 8–13 attraction, 8–11, 9, 12, 194 consolidation, 8, 11–12, 111, 112, 142, 194 digital era and, 158–62 expansion and withdrawal, 8, 12–13, 194 redistribution of power, 170, 197 Renaissance, 143 representative democracy, 183 Republic (Plato), ix, 198 resistance, 123–24, 161, 199 to change, 74, 77–78, 127, 131 violent and nonviolent, 124 Ridgeway, Cecilia L., 233n46, 251n5 Ring des Nibelungen, Der (Wagner), x Ring of Gyges, ix, x, xiii, 198 Roberts, Laura Morgan, 171 Robinson, James A., 257n79 Rogers, Jean, 126–30, 176 Rohingya, 34 Ross, Lee, 16 Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, 189 Rowan, Brian, 233n46 Roy, Bunker, 144, 161 Rubin, Andy, 156 Russell, Bertrand A.

Doudna and Emmanuelle Charpentier, “The New Frontier of Genome Editing with CRISPR-Cas9,” Science 346, no. 6213 (2013). 81 Megan Rose Dickey, “Human Capital: ‘People Were Afraid of Being Critical with Me,’ ” TechCrunch, August 28, 2020, https://social.techcrunch.com/2020/08/28/human-capital-it-doesnt-have-to-be-this-way/. 82 Ottmar Edenhofer et al., “Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2014). 83 Ronald Segal, The Black Diaspora: Five Centuries of the Black Experience Outside Africa (New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 1995), 4. 84 François Rabelais and Andrew Brown, Pantagruel: King of the Dipsodes Restored to His Natural State with His Dreadful Deeds and Exploits (London: Hesperus, 2003), 34. 85 Yuval N.


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Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Make a Difference by William MacAskill

barriers to entry, basic income, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Cal Newport, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, effective altruism, en.wikipedia.org, end world poverty, experimental subject, follow your passion, food miles, immigration reform, income inequality, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, job automation, job satisfaction, Lean Startup, M-Pesa, mass immigration, meta-analysis, microcredit, Nate Silver, Peter Singer: altruism, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, randomized controlled trial, self-driving car, Skype, Stanislav Petrov, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, universal basic income, women in the workforce

In these debates, one group points to the scientific consensus that man-made climate change is happening while the other argues that the jury is still out. To be clear, there really is near consensus among scientists that man-made climate change is happening. A UN-backed panel of thousands of climate scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that “it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century,” where they define “extremely likely” to mean at least 95 percent probability. One article reviewed four thousand papers that discuss global warming and reported that “97.1 percent endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.”

This is especially important because the climate is an incredibly complex system that is difficult to predict, so we can’t be sure that our estimates are correct. When climate scientists make estimates about temperature rise, they have to acknowledge that there is a small but significant risk of a temperature increase that’s much greater than 2 to 4ºC. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gives more than 5 percent probability to temperature rises greater than 6ºC, and even acknowledges a small risk of catastrophic climate change, of 10ºC or more. To be clear, I’m not saying that this is at all likely, in fact, it’s very unlikely. But it is possible, and if it were to happen, the consequences would be disastrous, potentially resulting in civilizational collapse.

In the summer of 2013, President Barack Obama referred to climate change as “the global threat of our time.” He’s not alone in this opinion. The US secretary of state, John Kerry, called climate change “the greatest challenge of our generation”; former Senate majority leader Harry Reid has said that “climate change is the worst problem facing the world today,” and the cochair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Thomas F. Stocker called climate change “the greatest challenge of our time.” Are Obama and these other commentators correct? Is climate change the most important cause in the world today—a greater global priority than extreme poverty? How could we decide? A lot of people have asked these questions.


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Peers Inc: How People and Platforms Are Inventing the Collaborative Economy and Reinventing Capitalism by Robin Chase

Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Andy Kessler, banking crisis, barriers to entry, basic income, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, business climate, call centre, car-free, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, commoditize, congestion charging, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, decarbonisation, different worldview, do-ocracy, don't be evil, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Ethereum, ethereum blockchain, Ferguson, Missouri, Firefox, frictionless, Gini coefficient, hive mind, income inequality, independent contractor, index fund, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Lyft, means of production, megacity, Minecraft, minimum viable product, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, openstreetmap, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, peer-to-peer model, Post-Keynesian economics, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, TaskRabbit, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, Tragedy of the Commons, transaction costs, Turing test, turn-by-turn navigation, Uber and Lyft, uber lyft, Zipcar

Gordon Rosenblatt, “Google’s Biggest Competitor Is Amazon,” Medium.com, October 18, 2014, https://medium.com/@gideonro/the-google-amazon-slugfest-8a3a07a1d6dd. 17. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report,” November 1, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr. 18. World Bank, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided,” report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, November 1, 2012. 19. Ibid. 20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.” 21. Jim Robbins, “Building an Ark for the Anthropocene,” New York Times, September 27, 2014. 22.

My mind, though, was truly opened when I read the much talked-about World Bank report “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided.” The World Bank is a very conservative financial institution, very capitalistic, very market-driven. Its report was compiled from the same source materials consulted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its November 2014 synthesis report and was reviewed by the same top scientists.17 The top-line finding: Even if every country does everything it has promised to do in order to reduce CO2 emissions, we are on track for a 4°C (7°F) increase in average global temperature by 2100.18 Since I had no idea what such an increase actually implies, I decided to search historical climate temperatures to see what the world was like when it was 4°C cooler than it is now and get a sense of what changes such a shift had already brought about.

See Regulations Hackathons, 39–40 Hagel, John, 178 Hansen, James, 232 Hardware, in-vehicle, 14 Haselmayer, Sascha, 170–171, 173 Heiferman, Scott, 238–239 HelloWallet, 41 HelpAround, 82–83 Heminway, Mark, 15–16 Hemmesch, Annie, 82–83 Hilton Hotels, 74 Hives, as innovative distribution mechanism, 235–236 Hoffman, Reid, 127 “How to Run Your Own Apps for Democracy Innovation Contest,” 40 Humans, working in conjunction with computers, 85–87 Hurricane Sandy, lessons learned, 243–244 IKEA, resistance to change, 175 Income enabling various sources, 58–59 rising inequalities, 187–188, 195–196, 220–221 India, auto rickshaw innovation, 239–243 Individual strengths, 18 Indonesia, forest fires, 230–232 Industrial economy vs. collaborative, 18–19, 250 prior to Internet, 249 valuing corporation over people, 253 Industrial model, 164–166 Industrial strengths, 18 InnoCentive, 83 Innovation Apollo 13, 222–223 dictated by platform structure, 44–45 gap between idea and service, 172–173 no permission required, 141, 142 open platforms, 104–107 reforming Defense Intelligence Agency, 167–169 Instacart, 55 Institutions benefiting from peer collaboration, 61–68 lack of flexibility, 188–189 sustainability efforts, 226–229. See also B corp See also individual names Insurance health. See Benefits, workers’ and ridesharing, 154–155 Intellectual property, sharing. See Free and open-source software (FOSS); Open platforms; Patents, opening Intercontinental Hotel Group, 73–74 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 90–91 Internet economy before and since, 249–250 as government creation, 140–141 and platforms to tap excess capacity, 17–18 Internet service providers (ISPs), conflicts of interest, 123 Investments, private, 197–199, 200–202 iPhone, apps as excess capacity use, 26–27 Jacobs, Jane, 99 Jobs, Steve, 26–27 Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, 205 Kahneman, Daniel, 86 Kernel.


Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics by Francis Fukuyama

Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, business cycle, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, cognitive bias, cuban missile crisis, energy security, flex fuel, global pandemic, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John von Neumann, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Norbert Wiener, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, The Wisdom of Crowds, trade route, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Yom Kippur War

.: examples of failures in, 41. See also Soviet Union collapse Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 113 International Energy Agency, 74, 77 International Health Regulations (IHR), 88–89, 90 International Monetary Fund (IMF): before East Asian economic crisis, 43, 48, 52, 170; response to East Asian economic crisis, 42, 48–49 International system, and climate change, 150–52 index Internet: access to knowledge through, 164–65; development of, 63–64, 123, 125; global changes caused by, 163 IPCC. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iran: and oil dependence, 74; regional role of, 146; Russian-Chinese alliance and, 159; U.S. foreign policy toward, 76 Iranian revolution, U.S. intelligence on, 41 Iraq: future of, 147; in Gulf War, 71, 146; oil embargo by, 74; oil industry in, 71–73, 74; pre-war WMD estimates for, 2–3, 41 Iraq war (2003– ): accuracy of bombs in, 138; and Australian-U.S. relations, 145; bold vs. careful policies in, 109; mental models in planning for, 170; oil embargo used as threat, 74; oil production during, 71; scenario thinking about, 112; and U.S. national power, 157; WMD estimates in, 2–3, 41 Islam: and breakup of Indonesia, 144; and oil industry, 74, 75; political, rise of, 146 Islamic countries, demographics of, 132–33 Islamic fundamentalism: in Egypt, 108; in Indonesia, 144 Israel, past surprises in, 146 Italy: future surprises in, 108; political Left in, 149 Jamaah al-Islamiya, 144 Japan: demographics in, 142; after East Asian economic crisis, 49, 50, 53; before East Asian economic crisis, 44, 46–47 Java, 106 Judaism, 160 Kahn, Herman, 112 Kaminsky, Graciela, 45–46 2990-7 ch17 index 7/23/07 12:33 PM Page 191 index 191 Katrina, Hurricane: cost-benefit analysis of preparing for, 15; economic development and, 8; political barriers to preparing for, 11–12; predictability of, 3; as socio-surprise, 3 Kennan, George, 97 Kennedy, John F., 64 Khamenei, Ali, 74 Kim Jong-Il, 33 Kimmel, Husband, 2 Knowledge, access to, 137, 164–65 Korean War, 62 Krugman, Paul, on East Asian economy, 43, 48 Kurzweil, Ray, 154 Kuwait, in Gulf War, 71, 146 Kyoto Protocol, 151 Logic, in digital computers, 123–24 Loomis, Alfred, 60–61 Los Alamos National Laboratory, 58, 61, 63 Low-probability, high-impact events (LPHIs), 147–50 Low-probability events: bias and, 2–3; challenges of, 1–6; in definition of catastrophe, 7; hedging against, limits of, 3, 171; imagination applied to, 3, 8–9, 98; psychological preparedness for, 4; in rational choice model, 4 LPHIs.

To help inform these debates, scientists, economists, and other scholars concerned with climate change have created a variety of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the twenty-first century. The most impressive and authoritative effort has been the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) sponsored by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).6 The creators of these scenarios worked hard to implement the approach practiced by Wack and Schwartz but fell far short of results that can help national governments seize the opportunities and avoid the dangers related to climate change. To assess the SRES effort, it is important to note the extent to which climate change presents a challenge of competing surprises.

As quoted by Ronald Suskind, “Without a Doubt,” New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2004. 4. P. F. Drucker, The Age of Discontinuity (New York: Harper and Row, 1968). 5. M. B. Ridgway, Soldier: The Memoirs of Matthew B. Ridgway (New York: Harper, 1956). 6. N. Nakicenovic, and others, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2000). 2990-7 ch16 notes contribs notes 7/23/07 12:17 PM Page 179 179 7. David G. Groves and Robert J. Lempert, "A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios," Global Environmental Change 17 (2007): 73–85. 8. R. J. Lempert, S. W.


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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't by Nate Silver

"Robert Solow", airport security, availability heuristic, Bayesian statistics, Bear Stearns, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, business cycle, buy and hold, Carmen Reinhart, Claude Shannon: information theory, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, disinformation, diversification, Donald Trump, Edmond Halley, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, Freestyle chess, fudge factor, George Akerlof, global pandemic, haute cuisine, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, housing crisis, income per capita, index fund, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, Laplace demon, locking in a profit, Loma Prieta earthquake, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, Nate Silver, negative equity, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pets.com, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, security theater, short selling, Skype, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons

“Occam’s Razor;” Wikipedia.org. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam’s_razor. 51. John Theodore Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, J. J. Ephraums, eds. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990). http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf. 52. “1.6: The IPCC Assessments of Climate Change and Uncertainties” in Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch1s1-6.html. 53. “New York Snow: Central Park Sets the October Record from Noreaster,” Associated Press via Huffington Post, October 29, 2011. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/29/new-york-snow-noreaster_n_1065378.html. 54.

Earth System Research Laboratory, “Full Mauna Loa CO2 Record.” 83. See section 2.7 in “IPCC Second Assessment: Climate Changes 1995,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 5. It refers to a “best estimate” of a 2°C increase in global mean surface temperatures in the 110 years between 1990 and 2100, which works out to approximately 1.8°C per 100 years. The note also expresses a range of projections between 0.9°C and 2.7°C in warming per century. So, even the high end of the IPCC’s 1995 temperature range posited a (slightly) lower rate of warming than its best estimate in 1990. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-1995/ipcc-2nd-assessment/2nd-assessment-en.pdf. 84.

One common technique requires adults to dutifully record everything they eat over a period of weeks, and trusts them to do so honestly when there is a stigma attached to overeating (and more so in some countries than others). 8. J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, “Report Prepared for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Working Group I,” Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p. XI. 9. David R. Williams, “Earth Fact Sheet,” NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, last updated November 17, 2010. http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/earthfact.html. 10.


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The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows

agricultural Revolution, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dematerialisation, demographic transition, financial independence, game design, Garrett Hardin, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), longitudinal study, means of production, new economy, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, Tragedy of the Commons, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review

Robert T. Watson, chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, presenting the key conclusions of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (Climate Change 2001) to the Sixth Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, July 19, 2001. Available at www.ipcc.ch. 89. D. H. Meadows et al., Limits to Growth (New York: Universe Books, 1972), 79. 90. WWF, Living Planet Report 1999 (Gland, Switzerland: WWF, 1999), 8. 91. R. T. Watson et al., Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2001). Also available along with numerous illustrations atwwwipcc.ch. 92.

Even if it has, the effects of global climate change on future human activity or ecosystem health cannot be predicted with certainty Some have exploited that uncertainty in an effort to create a state of confusion,92 and thus it is important to state clearly what we do know In this we rely on the several hundred scientists and researchers who make up the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which issues their carefully considered views approximately every five years:93 • It is certain that human activities, especially fossil fuel burning and deforestation, contribute to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. FIGURE 3-24 The Rising Global Temperature The global average temperature has risen over the past century by some 0.6°C.

International Energy Statistics Sourcebook, 14th ed. (Tulsa, OK: PennWell Pub. Co., 1999). International Energy Annual 2001 (Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2001) http: / /www.eia.doe.gov/ emeu / iea / contents.html. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Chapter 3.4.3.1, "Fossil and Fissile Resources," http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/071.htm (accessed 1/19/04). Figure 3-11 U.S. Oil Production and Consumption Basic Petroleum Data Book (Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum Institute, 1981). Annual Energy Review (Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration, U.S.


The Knowledge Machine: How Irrationality Created Modern Science by Michael Strevens

Albert Einstein, Albert Michelson, anthropic principle, Arthur Eddington, Atul Gawande, coronavirus, Covid-19, COVID-19, dark matter, Edmond Halley, Fellow of the Royal Society, fudge factor, germ theory of disease, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of movable type, invention of the telescope, Isaac Newton, Islamic Golden Age, Johannes Kepler, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, Murray Gell-Mann, Peace of Westphalia, Richard Feynman, Solar eclipse in 1919, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Thales of Miletus, the scientific method, Thomas Bayes, William of Occam

The voice of the golem in these cases sounds not like a harmonizing choir but like the babble before the music begins: the clamor of a thousand crosscutting conversations. To make sense of the cacophony, we must find an interpreter. In the dire case of climate change, the foremost interpreter is the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Coordinated by the United Nations, the IPCC gathers scientists from around the world in working groups that contribute to assessment reports issued every few years. The aim of the reports is to summarize the state of scientific knowledge concerning the climate; among other things, they assign confidence levels to hypotheses, perhaps attaching “medium confidence” to one and “very high confidence” to another, and they assign likelihoods to particular events—such as a 3-degree increase in average global temperature by 2050 or a 5-inch increase in sea level by 2100—using expressions such as “more likely than not,” “likely,” “very likely,” and so on.

., 76 fossil record, 175–77 four innovations that made modern science, 119 fractals, 210, 216–17, 217, 236 frame-dragging effect, 34, 36 fraud in science, 47–48, 59 Fürbringer, Max, 220 Galápagos Islands, 35 Galilei, Galileo and beauty, 227 and empirical inquiry, 243, 244 heresy conviction, 316n and mathematical foundation of physics, 194 and nature of light, 290 and planetary motion, 106 Galison, Peter, 154 gases, 143 Gawande, Atul, 59, 61–62 Gell-Mann, Murray, 146, 229–36, 265, 273 generalization, See inductive reasoning general theory of relativity, 34–35, 41–42, 49, 111–12, 155–61 See also eclipse expedition (Eddington) Genesis (biblical book), 276 “Genetic Studies of Genius,” 36 genius, IQ and, 36, 297n “Geological Age of Reptiles, The” (Mantell), 175 geology, 74–81, 175–83 geometrical transformations, 221–27, 223 “germs,” spontaneous generation and, 51, 82 Giere, Ronald, 296n Gilbert, Elizabeth, 66–67 Glaisher, James, 169–70 Glaser, Donald, 228 glass pane experiment, 94–95 God; See also religion account of creation of humanity in Genesis, 276 in Cartesian natural philosophy, 205–6 and Cartesian philosophy of knowledge, 270–71 in Cartesian physics, 133 Newton and, 187, 188 Newton’s Anglican ordination crisis, 250–52 and Oration on the Dignity of Man, 269–70 and Scoresby’s snowflake images, 169 and theory of special creation, 28 and Whewell’s History of the Inductive Sciences, 178–82 in Whewell’s theories, 176–78 gold, 185 golem, science as, 285–88 Golgi, Camillo, 153–55, 161–62 Gopnik, Alison, 265 Gould, Stephen Jay on diversion of science and humanities, 274–75 extrascientific interests, 265 on science and religion as nonoverlapping areas of inquiry, 207 on “science wars,” 263 Grand Design, The (Hawking and Mlodinow), 260 Grant, Peter and Rosemary, 35, 36 gravitational bending angle, 112 gravity Aristotelian physics, 27–28, 133–34 Cartesian physics, 131–33 development of theories of, 27–28, 136–7 Einsteinian physics, See general theory of relativity Newtonian physics, 27–28, 40, 68, 111, 136–40, 188, 195 Gravity Probe B experiment, 34, 34–36, 114 Great Method Debate, 6, 13–86; See also methodism/methodists; subjectivity and Baconian convergence, 112 iron rule and, 8 Thomas Kuhn and, 22–33, 31, 36, 38–40, 46–47, 57, 85–86 lack of consensus about nature of, 5 Karl Popper and, 13–22, 38–40 and radical subjectivism, 63 and single-minded focus on data collection, 33–37 The Structure of Scientific Revolutions and, 23–24 subjectivity and, 85 Great War (World War I), 14 Greece, ancient, 1, 2, 142–43, 242 Greek astronomical system, 26–27 Greek natural philosophers, 5 Greek philosophy, 117 Greene, Brian, 235 Greenwich Observatory (England), 69, 69 Grosseteste, Robert, 117 growth, laws of, 225–26 Guillemin, Roger, 33–34, 60–63, 61, 99 gyroscopes, 34, 36 hackberry trees, 37 hadrons, 230 Haeckel, Ernst, 47–48 Halley, Edmond, 141 Hanging, The (Callot), 247 harmony, 209; See also beauty Harris, Geoffrey, 21 Harvey, William, 312n Hawking, Stephen, 173, 260 heat, physics of Bacon and, 107–8 and Kelvin’s estimate of earth’s age, 76–77 kinetic vs. caloric theory, 90–94 “heat rays,” 92, 94, 95 Hedgehog, the Fox, and the Magister’s Pox, The (Gould), 275 Heilbron, John, 151 Hellmann, Gustav, 170–71 Helmholtz, Hermann von, 301n Heraclitus, 2, 117 heresy, 250, 316n Herschel, John, 173, 174, 219, 236 Higgs boson, 101 historical question about science, the, See science, late arrival of History of the Inductive Sciences (Whewell), 178–82 Hitler, Adolf, 13 Hobbes, Thomas, 243, 316n Holy Roman Empire, 129 Holy Trinity, 250–52, 316n Homage to Newton (Pittoni painting), 141, 142 Homo erectus, 223, 240 Homo neanderthalensis, 240 Hooke, Robert, 168–69, 169 Hradčany Castle (Prague), 245 Human Genome Project, 181 humanism, 269–77 human nature, suppression in scientific method, 8–9 Hume, David, 16–18, 21, 140 Hurricane Sandy, 278–79, 289 Huxley, Thomas, 76–78 Huygens, Christiaan, 194 Hydrozoa, 221 hypothalamus, 33, 99, 296n, 304n hypotheses (generally) Bacon and, 109–10 in IPCC reports, 288 Newton and, 137, 191, 311n–312n Ibn Sīnā, 117 idols (Baconian concept), 107, 109, 187, 192 inductive reasoning (induction), 15–18, 21–22 industry-sponsored research, 52–53, 84 infrared radiation, 92 innovations that made modern science, 119 Inquisition, 316n Institute for Theoretical Physics (Copenhagen), 145 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 288–89 interpretation of evidence logical impossibility of finding objective rule for, 79–82 subjectivity of, 57–58, 62–65, 79–82, 92–93, 288–89 IQ tests, 36, 297n iron rule of explanation, 8, 93–104 aesthetics and, 208–38, 237 and Aristotle’s approach to inquiry, 203–4 and Baconian convergence, 112–14, 116–17 “Capulet” and “Montague” (hypothetical matchup of two scientists), 89–96, 103 and critical spirits, 281–82 defined, 293 difficulty of teaching, 258–59 dissemination of, 257–60 Eddington and, 160 elements of, 96–97, 103 as essential ingredient for thriving science, 283 establishment of rules, 100–101 exclusion of nonempirical considerations from, 180–82 exclusion of philosophy from, 118, 207–8 exclusion of religion from, 204–7 explanatory relativism and, 128–29 first modern scientists’ relationship to, 265–67 as game, 100–102, 128–29, 164–65, 181–82, 203 indifference to metaphysics of causal principles, 147 Kuhn’s rules of science vs., 304n methodological innovations encompassed by, 117–19 and methods outlined in Principia, 137, 191, 248–49 moral strategy for teaching, 258–59 negative clause, 118–19, 195 Newton and, 142, 191–92, 245, 273 Newton’s law of universal gravitation and, 188 Newton’s outlining of essential aspects, 137–38 objectivity and, 118, 162 principle of total evidence and, 315n procedural consensus and, 117–18 quantum mechanics and, 147, 150, 151 rigid specifications for public announcements, 118 scientific argument vs. private reasoning in, 163–64, 181, 235, 238, 249–51, 264–66, 273 and Scientific Revolution, 243 scientific vs. unscientific reasons, 181 and seventeenth century natural philosophy, 192–94 and shallow conception of explanation, 142, 195 simplemindedness and, 259–60 as sine qua non of modern science, 202 sterilization and, See “sterilization” of scientific argument string theory and, 284–85 supremacy of observation in, 173–97 and tedium of empirical work, 256 and theoretical cohorts, 139–40 and Tychonic principle, 116 Whewell and, 180, 191, 205 irrationality and “golem” model of science, 287 of iron rule, 9, 201–8, 237–38 and science education, 256–57 and Scientific Revolution, 242 and teaching of iron rule to Atlanteans, 258 Jahren, Hope, 37, 255 James I (king of England), 105 Jesus Christ, 187, 250–52 Jupiter (planet), 106 Kamlah, Andreas, 296n Kant, Immanuel, 136 Keller, Alexander, 300n Kelvin, Lord (William Thomson), 74–79, 81–85, 181 Kennefick, Daniel, 298n Kepler, Johannes, 27, 106, 193 Keynes, John Maynard, 188, 212, 214 kinetic theory of heat, 90–92, 94, 108, 109 Krauss, Lawrence, 261 Kuhn, Thomas, 6, 31 and Aristotle’s physics, 123–24 belief in science’s power to create new knowledge, 32–33 birth and early years, 22–23 commonalities with Popper, 38–40 on Copernicanism, 27 and Copernican revolution, 26–27 and crisis, 28 and dogmatism, 258 and Eddington’s eclipse expedition, 46–47 errors in paradigm concept, 46–47, 238, 298n extraphilosophical claims, 40 and history of gravity, 137 and iron rule of explanation, 102, 103 on motivation, 38, 116, 203, 282 and objectivity, 85–86 and partisans, 57 on prevailing paradigm as sole worldview of science, 289 recommendations for healthy science, 282–83 on relation of experimental inquiry to paradigm, 36 on rules of science, 304n Lab Girl (Jahren), 255 Laboratory Life (Latour and Woolgar), 61 Lakatos, Imre, 30 lambda (subatomic particle), 228, 230 Language of God, The (Collins), 181 Large Hadron Collider, 81 latitudinarianism, 75 Latour, Bruno, 60–63, 68 “law of higgledy-piggledy,” 219, 236 Lawrence, D.

Such a panel, for all its expertise and hard work, cannot determine what science says. Science holds no determinate views. The IPCC’s numbers are created, as all such numbers must be, by infusing the scientific record with a set of plausibility rankings. Although the IPCC aims to use a range of rankings that reflect, in some sense, the center of mass of scientific opinion, they are subjective all the same: they are not derived from the objective evidence, but are rather what must be added to the evidence to induce it to begin to talk. It follows, says Stephen Schneider, a lead author of several of the IPCC reports, that “if we care about the future, we have to learn to engage with subjective analyses.”


pages: 302 words: 83,116

SuperFreakonomics by Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner

agricultural Revolution, airport security, Andrei Shleifer, Atul Gawande, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, Boris Johnson, call centre, clean water, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, creative destruction, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, Did the Death of Australian Inheritance Taxes Affect Deaths, disintermediation, endowment effect, experimental economics, food miles, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Nash: game theory, Joseph Schumpeter, Joshua Gans and Andrew Leigh, longitudinal study, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, market design, microcredit, Milgram experiment, oil shale / tar sands, patent troll, presumed consent, price discrimination, principal–agent problem, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, selection bias, South China Sea, Stanford prison experiment, Stephen Hawking, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, ultimatum game, urban planning, William Langewiesche, women in the workforce, young professional

., “Climate Changes Endanger World’s Food Output,” The New York Times, August 8, 1974; Peter Gwynne, “The Cooling World,” Newsweek, April 28, 1975; Walter Sullivan, “Scientists Ask Why World Climate Is Changing; Major Cooling May Be Ahead,” The New York Times, May 21, 1975. Ground temperatures over the past 100 years can be found in “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,” U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). JAMES LOVELOCK: All Lovelock quotes in this chapter can be found in The Revenge of Gaia: Earth’s Climate Crisis and the Fate of Humanity (Basic Books, 2006). Lovelock is a scientist perhaps best known as the originator of the Gaia hypothesis, which argues that the earth is essentially a living organism much like (but in many ways superior to) a human being.

Caldeira is among the most respected climate scientists in the world, his research cited approvingly by the most fervent environmentalists. He and a co-author coined the phrase “ocean acidification,” the process by which the seas absorb so much carbon dioxide that corals and other shallow-water organisms are threatened. He also contributes research to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for sounding the alarm on global warming. (Yes, Caldeira got a Nobel certificate.) If you met Caldeira at a party, you would likely place him in the fervent-environmentalist camp himself. He was a philosophy major in college, for goodness’ sake, and his very name—a variant of caldera, the craterlike rim of a volcano—aligns him with the natural world.

Department of, 163 Homo altruisticus, 110–11 Homo economicus, 106, 110, 112, 113 horses, 8–10, 12 Horsley, Ian, 88–90, 91, 92, 94, 95–96 hospitals errors in, 68–69, 72, 204 report cards for, 75 See also specific hospital Hurricane Katrina, 158 hurricanes, 158–63,178,193 Iceland, volcano eruptions in, 189 Ichino, Andrea, 21–22 impure altruism, 124–25 incentives and altruism, 125,131 and annuities, 82 to change behavior, 203 and chemotherapy, 85 and climate change, 173, 203 and doctors’ behavior, 206 and drunk driving, 2 and predicting behavior, 17 and prostitution, 19–20, 25, 41 and unintended consequences, 139 wages as, 46–47 and women in India, 4 India condoms in, 5, 6 List in, 115 television in, 6–8, 12, 14, 16 TV in, 103 women in, 3–8, 14 Indian Council of Medical Research, 5 Industrial Revolution, 142 information, medical, 70–74 input dilemma, 188 Institute of Medicine, 204 Intellectual Ventures (IV), 177–203 pro bono work of, 198–99 See also specific person or project intentions behind an action, 106–7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 184 International Kidney Exchange, Ltd., 112 Internet, 39–40, 51 Iran, organ transplants in, 112, 124–25 Iraq war, 65, 87 Ireland, garbage tax in, 139 Irish Republican Army (IRA), 63 irrational behavior, 214 Jacobs, Barry, 112 Jaws (film), 15 Jefferson, Thomas, 83 Jensen, Robert, 6–7 Johnson, Boris, 170 Jung, Edward, 178 Justice Department, U.S., 23 Kahneman, Daniel, 115 Katz, Lawrence, 21, 45–46 Kay, Alan, 69 Kennedy, John F., 102 Kew Gardens (New York City).


pages: 422 words: 113,525

Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto by Stewart Brand

agricultural Revolution, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, back-to-the-land, biofilm, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, business process, Cass Sunstein, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dark matter, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Elon Musk, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, glass ceiling, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, Herbert Marcuse, Hernando de Soto, informal economy, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Kevin Kelly, Kibera, land tenure, lateral thinking, low earth orbit, M-Pesa, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, microbiome, New Urbanism, orbital mechanics / astrodynamics, out of africa, Paul Graham, peak oil, Peter Calthorpe, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, stem cell, Stewart Brand, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thomas Malthus, Tragedy of the Commons, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, wealth creators, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, William Langewiesche, working-age population, Y2K

For the first time, climate was understood as a clear and present danger, the responsibility of currently serving officials worldwide instead of some future generation’s problem. Public opinion on the subject began its own abrupt change. • If GBN’s scenario worries you, don’t worry. In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consulted twenty-three climate models and concluded that the widespread concern of climatologists about the Gulf Stream was misplaced. A Norwegian professor, Helge Drange, said, “The bottom line is that the atmosphere is warming up so much that a slowdown of the North Atlantic Current will never be able to cool Europe.”

Guanacaste Conservation Area, Costa Rica Guardian Guidetti, Geri Gwadz, Robert Haeckel, Ernst “Half Century of United States Federal Government Energy Incentives, A” (Bezdek and Wendling) Hallwachs, Winnie Hamming, Richard Hansen, James Hansson, Anders Harris, Michael Harrison, Jim Haseltine, William Hawaii Hawken, Paul Hawks, John heat waves Hebert, Paul Henderson, Donald herbicides Herman, Arthur Higgs, Eric High Country News Hillis, Danny Hiroshima, Japan HIV/AIDS Holdren, John Holistic Management (Savory) Homer-Dixon, Thomas Hopis horizontal gene transfer horses Howard, Albert Humanitarian Golden Rice Network hurricanes hybrid seeds hydroelectric power hydrogen ice-to-water albedo flip Idea of Decline in Western History, The (Herman) IEEE Spectrum iGEM Jamboree Iglesias-Rodríguez, Débora Illicit (Naím) “Implications of Rising Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere” (Conservation Foundation) Inconvenient Truth, An Independent India genetic engineering and Green Revolution and nuclear power and slums and Industry Association of Synthetic Biology informal economy infrastructure insect resistance insulin integral fast reactors integrated pest management intelligent design Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International Consortium for Polynucleotide Synthesis International Council of Science (ICSU) International Human Microbiome Consortium International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center International Rice Research Institute International Soil Reference and Information Centre International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Internet Internet Engineering Task Force Intertribal Bison Cooperative Intervention (Caruso) iron irrigation Islam, Muslims Italy jaguars Janzen, Daniel Japan atomic bombing of genetic engineering and nuclear power and Jefferson, Richard Jennings, Lois Judson, Horace Juniper, Tony Kahn, Herman Kahn, Lloyd Kaplan, Robert Kareiva, Peter Kaufman, Wallace Keeling, Charles Keith, David Kelly, Brian Kelly, Kevin Kenya Keynes, John Maynard Khosla, Vinod King, Franklin Hiram Kirk, Andrew Klaassen, Johann Kleiber’s law Knight, Tom Kohm, Kathy Korea, North Korea, South Kunstler, James Howard Kyoto Protocol (2001) L-1 Point (Inner Lagrange Point) Lackner, Klaus Lake Nyos, Cameroon, disaster in Lamarck, Jean-Baptiste Lament for an Ocean (Harris) landraces Langewiesche, William Lansing, Stephen Laquian, Aprodicio Last Forest, The (London and Kelly) Last Whole Earth Catalog Latham, John Latin America genetic engineering and see also specific countries Laws of Fear (Sunstein) LeBlanc, Steven LEED rating system Lehmann, Johannes Lerner, Jaime Lewis, John Liberation Biology (Bailey) Liferaft Earth Limits to Growth, The (Meadows et al.)

The robust areas of forest were protected by their local villages: “If an outsider wants to use the forest, the only way to get permission is to marry into the clan.” Because of climate concerns, forests are now seen as crucial for their role in fixing and retaining carbon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that converting 2 billion acres of farmland to agroforestry (which integrates trees, shrubs, livestock, and row crops) would remove 50 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The World Agroforestry Centre suggests that “allowing farmers to sell that carbon on global carbon markets could generate as much as $10 billion each year for poor people in rural areas.”


pages: 379 words: 108,129

An Optimist's Tour of the Future by Mark Stevenson

23andMe, Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, augmented reality, bank run, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, clean water, computer age, decarbonisation, double helix, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, flex fuel, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hans Rosling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of agriculture, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Leonard Kleinrock, life extension, Louis Pasteur, low earth orbit, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, off grid, packet switching, peak oil, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, social intelligence, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, strong AI, the scientific method, Wall-E, X Prize

To the non-science literate this makes the whole enterprise sound rather unsure of itself – and given the gravity of the possible outcomes, many people expect a stronger-worded case. (Ironically for many scientists, the consensus on the climate change threat, expressed in a series of IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – reports, represents the strongest wording any body of scientists has ever collectively come up with.) Then there’s the fact that the most important figure used in the climate change argument seems intuitively non-threatening – sure CO2 levels have gone up, but by a hundred parts per million.

Daniel 160, 164 Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, The 100 Hoek, Eric 118 Hofmeister, Anke 261–2 Hofstadter, Douglas 276 Holbrook 221–2, 239–40 Huggable 78 Human Security Brief 148 Huntington’s disease 44, 58 Huxley, Julian 13 I IBM 113, 125 identical twins 43 Imperial College London 31, 213 indium 195–6 Industrial Revolution 110, 115, 167, 171, 284–5 inequality 302 influenza virus 64–5, 69–70 Insomnia Cookies 93–4 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 149 Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology 69 Intelligent, Safe and Smart Built (ISSB) 119 interconnectedness Internet 151–8 nonzero-sum game 149–51 telegraph 145–7 and violent deaths 149 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 171, 172, 179, 180 International Association Synthetic Biology 68 International Gene Synthesis Consortium 68 Internet 147, 151–64, 268, 302 invariants 99 Iran 157 Isasi, Rosario 27 IVF 106 J Jackson, Ron 64 Jones, Richard 120–1, 124, 130 Joule Biotechnologies 57, 186–8, 189 JSB see Brown, John Seely Jungerbluth, Philip 20 Jurassic Park 39, 75 K Kahn, Bob 153, 159 Kármán line 133 Kasparov, Garry 82, 83, 86 Katter, Bob 171 Keeley, Lawrence 147 Keeling, Charles David 167 Keith, David 184 Kelly, Kevin 161 Kench, Paul 242 Kessler, Andy 43 Klein, Naomi 303 Kleinrock, Leonard 152 Kline, Charley 152 Knome 50 Konarka 190–1, 196–204, 206, 224, 295, 299 Kossel, Albrecht 37 Krummel, Glen 228 Kukla, George 178–9, 186 Kunfunadhoo Island 261–2, 266 Kurzweil, Ray 90, 267–78, 282, 293, 299, 303–4 and Brown, John Seely 285 posthumans 103–4, 268 The Singularity 88 transhumanism 21–2, 267–8 Kyrgyzstan 157 L Lackner, Klaus 173, 174–86, 188, 189, 259–60, 299, 301 Lana 224–5 Langley, Tim 212–19 Law of Accelerating Returns 51, 270–8, 293 Leber’s congenital amaurosis (LCA) 59–60 Legion of Extraordinary Dancers 155, 158, 294 Lehmann, Johannes 209–10 Leo 73–4, 75–6, 79, 80–2, 84–6, 102 Lewis, Dan 203 Licht, Stuart 184 life expectancy 12–13, 301 and income 27–8 longevity escape velocity 29–30 limited liability corporations 290–1 Lincoln, Abraham 265–6 Lipson, Hod 92, 94–6, 98–101, 102, 210, 272–3, 293, 299 longevity escape velocity 29–30 López, José 117 Lovell, Tony 222–40, 300 Lovelock, James 164, 172, 220 biochar 208–9, 210, 215 LS9 56–7, 61 Lynx spaceplane 142 M Maahlos 261 McConnell, James 17 MacDiarmid, Alan 196 ‘Machine Stops, The’ (Forster) 161 McNamara, Kaitlyne 20–1 Maes, Pattie 162–3 Maldives 241–62 Malé 249–50 Malthus, Thomas Robert 250 ‘Manchester Report, The’ 223, 224 Markram, Henry 90, 91 Martine, George 252–3 Masten Space Systems 136 Matrix, The 103 men life expectancy 12, 23 pregnancy 24 methane 230 Methuselah Foundation 21 Mexico 278–9 Miescher, Johannes Friedrich 37 Miller, Webb 41 Minsky, Marvin 102, 104 Miromatrix Medical 20 MIT 40, 262 Fluid Interfaces Group 162–3 Media Lab 77–8 nanotechnology 201 Smart Cities Group 200 Technology Review 16, 187 Mitchell, Bill 200 Mojave 131–3, 135–44 Monbiot, George 215, 303 Moombril 221–2, 239–40 Moore, Michael 303 Moorhead, Paul 18 Moravec, Hans 74, 84, 89–90 Morgan Stanley 193 Mosely, Andrew 231–5 Mosely, Megan 231–5 Mouchot, Augustin 192–3, 266 mousepox 63–4 Musk, Elon 136, 141 Myhrvold, Nathan 16 N Najning University 120 nanofactories 114–17, 125–6, 286 Nanoforum 120 nanoparticles 287 nanopunk 117 Nanosolar 202–3 Nanosystems (Drexler) 112, 124 nanotechnology 107, 108–30, 268, 301, 302 apocalypse 125–7 and energy 201 Grey Goo 121–3 products 117–21 Narrandera 237–8 NASA 134, 135, 136, 141, 170 Nasheed, Mohamed 243–9, 254–60, 262 National Academy of Engineering 125 National Academy of Sciences 125 National Center for Atmospheric Research 176 National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) 64–5 National Human Genome Research Institute 36 National Research Council 125 National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity 67–8 natural language 86–7 Nature 170 Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) 134 New Scientist 68 New York 172 New York University 120 New Zealand 206–20 New Zealand Wind Farms 208 Nexi 102 Niven, Larry 135 nonzero-sum games 149–51, 153–4, 270 Northwest Passage 177–8 Nouri, Ali 65 nuclein 37 O oil 193 Olovnikov, Alexey 52–3 Olshansky, Stuart Jay 12 oncogenes 46–7 optical telegraph 145–6 Optimist (cocktail) 220 organic conductive polymers 196–7, 198, 201 ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency 58–9 Ott, Harold 20 over-population 17–18 P Pakistan 157 Pan Am 133 parabolic surfaces 192 Parkinson’s disease 273–4 Partners in Health (PIH) 202 Personal Genome Project (PGP) 37, 42–3, 47–50, 51, 273 Personal Robots Group 73–4, 75–6, 77–82, 84–6, 102 Pew Charitable Trusts 119 Pew Research Center 168 phenylketonuria 44, 58 Picton 214–15, 217–18, 220 Pifre, Abel 192 Pinatubo, Mount 169 Pinker, Steven 83, 147, 149, 293 Pirbright Laboratory 68 Pistorius, Oscar 29, 300 Pleasance, Erin 40–1 Polonator G.007 50 Pontin, James 16 Popular Science Monthly 192 population 17–18, 249–54 pornography 158 Portugal 234–5 Power Plastic 196–7, 198, 204, 224 Prey (Crichton) 122 procreative beneficence 23 Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies 119 proteins 45–6 ProtoLife 66 Pygmalion (Shaw) 86 pyrolysis 209–10, 212–14 R Ranchos de Taos, New Mexico 234 Rankin, Sarah 31 Rasmussen, Lars 256 Rebek, Julius 124 reflection 86 Regis, Ed 112 Reicher, Dan 194–5 Rema 199 Reporters Without Borders 157 Revue des Deux Mondes 192 Rice University 118–19, 201 Ridley, Matt 270, 302–3 Roberts, Lawrence 152 Roberts, Paul 244, 248, 254 Robinson, Ken 265–6, 284, 288, 293 robots 73–92, 302 Leo 73–4, 75–6, 79, 80–2, 84–6 Nexi 102 Starfish 95–6, 98–9 Rofecoxib 49 Rosenthal, Elisabeth 254 Rosling, Hans 251, 254, 293 Rothemund, Paul 119, 120 Ruddiman, William 230 Rumsfeld, Donald 172 Rutan, Dick 140–1, 142, 143 S Sanger Institute 40–1, 51 Saudi Arabia 157 Savory, Allan 221, 226–7, 232 Savulescu, Julian 23 scalable efficiency 286 Scaled Composites 136, 139, 142 Schmidt, Michael 98, 99, 273 Schöni, Peter 220 Schuster, Stephen 41 Schweizer, Erhard 113 scientific method 96–8 self-replication 121–3 senescence 18, 53–4 Shadow Robot Company 74–5 Sharkey, Noel 76–7 Sharpe, Tom 256 Shaw, George Bernard 86 Shawcross, Lord 215 Shew, Ashley 109–10 Shirakawa, Hideki 196 Shivdasani, Eva 261 Shivdasani, Sonu 261 Siemens 193 silicon cells 195–7 Singularity 88, 268 Singularity is Near, The 268, 269, 271 Six Million Dollar Man, The 14 SixthSense 162–3 Skordalakes, Emmanuel 52, 53 Smalley, Richard 111, 122, 123, 201 SmartHand 103 Smolker, Rachel 216 Snider, Wayne 200 Socrates 96–7, 99 soil carbon 228–31, 233–5, 236–7, 238 soil charcoal 213–14 solar energy 190–1, 192–3, 194–205, 206, 274, 295, 302 Solar Thermal Electrochemical Photo Carbon Capture 184 Solarbuzz 205 Soneva Fushi 261–2 space 133–44, 302 Space Frontier Foundation 134 SpaceShipOne 135–6 SpaceShipTwo 136, 139, 142 SpaceX 136, 141 Sparrow, Rob 23–4 Speedy, Barb 218 Spielberg, Steven 75 Stan Winston Studio 75 Standage, Tom 146–7 Stanford University 20 Star Wars 76, 83, 102 Starfish 95–6, 98–9 Stark, Philip 158 Stellenbosch University 118 stem cells 19–21, 31, 301 Stiehl, Dan 78–9 Stoppard, Tom 281 Strong, Graham 237–8 StubbyGlove 228 Suel, Gurol 273 Suh, Yousin 53 Sun Tzu 40–1, 51–2 surveillance 127, 129 synthetic biology 55–8, 70 bacteria 56–8 bioterrorism 63–6, 68 control 66–70 genome engineering 60–3 viral gene therapy 58–60 Synthetic Genomics 56 Syria 157 Szostak, Jack 18 T Taylor, Doris 20 TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) 14, 153, 265–6, 291–5 Tefera, Elfenesh 199 telegraph 145–7, 297, 301 tellurium 195–6 telomerase 18–19, 45, 52–4 Terminator, The 76, 78, 103, 302 Tetrahymena 18 Thornton, Edward 146 thymine 37–9, 46 Toffler, Alvin 289 Tofu 79 transhumanism 13–18, 21–34, 45, 52–4, 267–8 transplants 19–21 Treder, Mike 126–7 tribes 155–6 Tripathy, Sukant 199 truth 96–8 Tsiolkovsky, Konstantin 114, 116, 125, 128 Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development 49 Tumlinson, Rick 133–4 Turing, Alan 88 Turkmenistan 157 Turney, Chris 213 twins 43 U underwater cabinet meeting 241–2, 245, 246–9, 258 Ungar, Georges 17 United Nations (UN) biosafety 68 Livestock’s Long Shadow 230 population 252 State of the World’s Forests 253 World Urbanisation Prospects 250 United States biofuels 187 carbon dioxide 184 electricity 285 global warming 168 oil 187, 188 science 279–80 space programme 134, 136 University of Bradford 149 University of Bristol 20 University of British Columbia 148 University of California 118–19 University of Maryland 201 University of Minnesota 20 University of Regensburg 125 University of Washington, Center for Conservation Biology 40 Uppsala University 148 Uzbekistan 157 V Venter, Craig 36, 47, 50, 56, 57, 58, 279 Vietnam 157 Vinsen, Mark 211–12 violence 147–51, 302 and interconnectedness 157–8 and Internet 244–5 and nanotechnology 126–7 Vioxx 49 viral gene therapy 58–60 Virgin Galactic 135–6, 141 vitrification 15 Voltaire 218 Voyager 140 W Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine 20 Wall-E 76 Ward, Bruce 222–40, 259, 300 wars 147–9 Watson, James 56 Web 154–5 Weitz, David 51 Weizenbaum, Joe 86 Weldon, Larry 190–1, 196–7 Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute 40–1, 51 Wemett, Tracy 190, 197, 204, 267, 276, 297 Wired 61, 112, 159 Witt, Stuart 137–40, 143, 144 women 23–4 Wonder, Stevie 269 wood gas 209 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 119 World Health Organisation 68, 69–70, 148, 149 World Transhumanist Association 25 worldchanging.com 158 Wright, Allen 179, 180 Wright, Burt 179, 180 Wright, Karen 224–5 Wright, Orville 132–3 Wright, Robert 149–51, 156, 158, 270, 293 Wright, Tim 224–5 Wright, Wilbur 132–3 X Xcel Energy 199, 200 XCOR Aerospace 136, 141–2 Y YouTube 155, 157, 294 Z Zhang, Jin 118 Zimbabwe 221, 226 Zittrain, Jonathan 153 Ziyad, Mohamed 254, 255–6 Zykov, Victor 95 * An interesting coda to Claudia’s story is that she nearly didn’t get her operation.

The normally calm research scientist lost his cool, not least because he was entertaining ‘a very important man from China, one of the first Chinese visitors that came here.’ Wally laughs. ‘We asked him whether the Chinese did pranks like that and he said: “Only small children.”’ But joking aside, Wally is one of the world’s top scientists, and when he talks about climate, people listen. He has kept himself apart from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change committees, instead giving his own accounts, based on sixty years of science. He insists the warming we’re seeing now is fundamentally different to historical shifts in the climate. ‘It’s bigger and faster,’ he tells me. Which naturally prompts the question ‘What can we do about it?’


pages: 339 words: 105,938

The Skeptical Economist: Revealing the Ethics Inside Economics by Jonathan Aldred

airport security, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, citizen journalism, clean water, cognitive dissonance, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, Diane Coyle, endogenous growth, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, framing effect, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, labour market flexibility, laissez-faire capitalism, libertarian paternalism, longitudinal study, new economy, Pareto efficiency, pension reform, positional goods, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, school choice, spectrum auction, Thomas Bayes, trade liberalization, ultimatum game, When a measure becomes a target

Before examining them in detail, it is worth taking a glimpse at policy debate on climate change in order to see exactly how the issues arise and how crucial they have become. Climate change battles The key organization charged with advising governments across the globe on climate change policy is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC has argued fiercely over the monetary valuation of human life — the argument nearly tore the IPCC apart. The argument was not about the notion of monetary value of human life itself, but the numbers involved. The standard view of market economics is, unsurprisingly, that the monetary values put on life, or decreased risk of death, should reflect values in markets.

Land Economics 73: 492-507 Index ability to pay 87 absolute consumption 58-59 accountability 199, 205-206, 230 see also audit culture adaptation 23-24, 25, 237 and increasing happiness 66-67, 98, 140-141 to economic growth 55-57, 61-62 addictive consumption 22-24, 98 advertising brand recognition 16 consumer sovereignty 19-21 increased choice 41 restricting 236-237 affluenza 3, 235-238 altruism see unselfish behaviour animal lives 160 Aristotle 134, 135 audit culture 192-198, 202, 204-205 availability 15-16, 122 babies, markets in 181, 209 Baumol’s cost disease 68-74, 78, 237-238 affordability of personal services 74-77, 191 Baumol, William 68, 75, 76, 77 Bayesianism 164-166, 178, 224-225 Bayes, Thomas 164 Becker, Gary 27, 34 behavioural economics 26, 232-233, 234 belief 13 benefit transfer 157 Bentham, Jeremy 120-121, 130-131, 135 best practice 201, 202 Bewley, Truman 229 biodiversity 160 black box economics 1-2, 4 Blanchard, Oliver 48 Blinder, Alan 232 blood donation 33, 197, 217 body shape and weight 42 brand recognition 16, 21 Breyer, Stephen 156 Broome, John 154 Bush, George W. administration 146, 153, 156 capital investment 168 capital punishment 215-216 Caplan, Bryan 226-227 carbon trading markets 222, 223 cars advertising 20 ownership 42-43, 63 catastrophe, precautionary principle 173 charitable giving 27, 28, 33-34 choice 25-26 costs to consumers 39, 191 economic analysis 12-14, 25-26, 43-44 increasing options 39-43, 182-184, 192 inequalities of 43, 189-190, 209-210 ofjobs 101-102 psychologist analysis 14-19 in public services 184-186, 188-192, 205 rational 11-12, 21, 28, 164-165 see also decision making choice advisers 191 citizen’s income 97 citizens’ juries 214, 215 climate change 2, 21, 146, 147-151, 159, 218 precautionary principle 173 valuing the future 161, 162 commodification 179-181, 206-216 alternatives to CBA 213-216 limits to monetary valuation 216-219 meaning of monetary valuation 207-210 rational decision making 211-213 commuters 56, 57 compensation argument for rates of pay 99-103, 105 competitive consumption 24-25, 57-62, 62-63 congestion 60-61 consumers 11-45 addictive consumption 22-24, 98 choice in public services 182-192 competitive consumption 24-25, 57-62, 62-63 preference satisfaction 37-43 rational choice 11-12 self-interest 26-36 shopping 12-19 sovereignty myth 19-22, 25, 156, 158, 225 consumption future 168 see also consumers context-specific valuation of risk 157-158 contingent valuation surveys 152, 157 contracts 203-204 contribution argument for rates of pay 103-108 coordination problem 63 cost-benefit analysis (CBA) 145-178 alternatives to 173-174, 213-216 best practice 201, 202 climate change 2, 146, 147-151, 159 determining preferences 39 of emotions 30-31 limits to monetary quantification 175-178 valuing the future 161-173 valuing human life 147-148, 151-160, 209 valuing nature 160-161 Coyle, Diane 2 cream-skimming 189-190, 210 cultural differences in perception of happiness 118-120 cultural value 207 Damasio, Antonio 44 decision making 174, 175, 176-177, 211-214 see also cost-benefit analysis (CBA) declining discount rates 169-170 democracy and accountability 199, 206, 230 and CBA 172-173, 176-177, 214 economics as 225, 227-228 valuing life 158-159 see also politics deserving what we earn 99-109 desire 13 Dickens, Charles 138 digital TV 41, 42 diminishing marginal utility 95, 158-159 disappointment 41 discounting 149, 166-173, 176, 178, 226, 234 doctors 2, 70, 91, 106-107 decisions on behalf of patients 186-187 drugs 128 earnings 79-80 differences in 99-109 personal services sector 70-71 see also performance-related pay (PRP); taxation economic growth 47-78, 168, 170 adaptation to 55-57, 61-62 affordability of personal services 74-77 alternative form of 236-238 and consumer sovereignty 21-22 and happiness 48-55, 61-62, 66-68, 141-142 meaning and measurement of 64-66 rivalry 57-62, 62-63 self-help 62-64 and taxation 88, 89 and work 235-236 see also Baumol’s cost disease economic imperialism 180, 222-223, 233 ecosystem services 160-161 education as a positional good 60-61, 190 reflected in pay 100, 105, 106 to enable pursuit of a good life 136, 236 education services 69, 237-238 choices 185-186 goals 202 inequality 189 supply and demand 190 efficiency 4-6, 8, 177 personal services 75, 191 taxation 93, 94, 95-98, 111-112, 237 effort 108 Ellsberg Paradox 164-165 emotions and choosing public services 185 and complex choices 40-41, 42 and monetary incentives 197 and prediction of satisfaction 16 and self-interest 30-31 employment 48, 53, 142, 235-236 Environmental Protection Agency (US) (EPA) 151 ethics 7-9, 224-228, 239 consumers 34-36, 37-38, 44 desert 108 and efficiency 5-6, 112 impartiality across generations 166-167, 171-172 limits to monetary valuation 216-219 monetary value for human life 150, 159-160 personal 138 principled disagreement 201-202 for public policy 133-139, 140-141, 142, 177, 234 view of discount rates 170-171 Experience Machine 127 Experience Sampling Method 123,124 fairness and efficiency 94-98 framing effects 14-15, 16, 18, 197 Frank, Robert 56 Freakonomics 1, 31-32, 34, 233 free trade 5-6 Friedman, Milton 7 future generations, discounting 166-167, 168-169, 171-172 future outcomes discounting 149, 166-173 precautionary principle 173-174 see also probabilities gambling games 164 game theory 222, 233 goals happiness 125, 126, 129-133 monetary incentives 200-201 for public services 199, 201-202 self interest 17, 37 Goodhart’s Law 141, 192, 194, 202, 223-224 governments auditing public services 203-204 consumer sovereignty 30, 38, 186 economic growth 47-48, 49, 68 Greatest Happiness principle 137-138 policy and CBA 150, 154, 157, 160, 172-173, 175, 215-216 policy for maximizing happiness 141-143 rights of ownership 81-82, 84-85 setting priorities 210 trust in 230-231 Greatest Happiness principle 127-133, 136-138 growth paths 65, 66 guilt 27, 28, 30-31 habitat destruction 160 Hahn, Robert 163 happiness 113-143 adaptation to material improvement 55-57 defining 114-116, 120-121, 134 and economic growth 48-55, 61-62, 66-68 maximized through extending choice 183 maximized through pay incentives 109 maximized through taxation 94-98 measurement of 53-54, 116-126, 139-140, 141, 224 philosophy of 126-133 and public ethics 133-139 as public policy 140-143 of service providers 191 happiness economics 50-55, 64, 78, 115, 122 alternative form of economic growth 236-237 and politics 137-138, 141-143 happiness treadmill 23, 24, 55 see also satisfaction treadmill Harrod, Sir Roy 59 Hayeck, Friedrich von 27-28 health insurance (US) 189-190 health services 69, 71-72, 237-238 difficulty in choosing 184-185 inequality in 189-190 productivity improvements 70, 74 see also doctors Heckman, James 188 higher pleasures 130-131, 135-136 Hirsch, Fred 59, 63 holiday entitlements 58, 59 holidays 17 Homo economicus 27, 29-36, 44, 111,178 and behavioural economics 232 determining preferences 39 location in brain 225-226 self-fulfilling assumption 224 service providers 187 and trust 230-231 useful context for 222-223 hours of work 91-92, 105, 108 House of Lords (UK) report on climate change 148, 150 human life discounting 168 monetary value of 21, 147-148, 151-160, 207-208 Quality-Adjusted Life Years 176 Hume, David 129 identity 24-25, 42, 154 ignorance 162 incentive to work 89-92, 104, 109 and tax 109-112 see also audit culture; monetary incentives income adaptation to 23-24 and happiness 52-54 relative 57-58, 59-60, 62 see also earnings; taxation income effect 91, 92 income tax see taxation inconspicuous consumption 59 inefficiency see efficiency inequality acceptability of 79-80 and choice in public services 188-190, 209-210 effect on happiness 54 rates of pay 99-109 information for consumers advertising 19-20 complexity in public services 184-185 inheritance 81, 86, 99 genetic 101, 108 in-kind valuations 213—214 intellectual diversity 229 interest rates 167—168, 169 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 147-148, 158 internet 43 interpersonal utility comparisons 49-50 Israeli day-care centres study 32 Japan, economic growth and happiness 52 Jefferson, Thomas 130 Jevons, William Stanley 49 job centre case workers 188, 202 Kahneman, Daniel 25-26, 124 objective happiness 114, 121, 125, 126 Peak-End evaluations 17, 122, 125 Keynes, John Maynard 6, 177, 235 Kyoto Protocol 146, 148 labour costs see Baumol’s cost disease labour market 5, 72, 142 language 87, 239 and reporting happiness 116-117, 118-119 law-breakers 34-35 Layard, Richard 121, 126, 137 alternative form of economic growth 236-237 Greatest Happiness principle 129-130, 132-133 happiness drugs 128 Le Grand, Julian 184, 186, 187, 188-189, 195-198 libertarianism view of taxation 82, 84, 86 widening choice 183, 205 libertarian paternalism 227-228 life expectancy 54 limited edition products 60 Locke, John 84 lost wallets 27, 28, 30 love 27, 208 luck and responsibility 105-106 marginal tax rates 96-97 market imperfections 218 market prices 33, 107 market rates of pay 99 compensation argument 100-101, 102, 103 contribution argument 103, 104, 106-107 putting a value on human life 147-148, 152-155 mental illness 3, 42, 54 Mill, John Stuart 130-131, 135-136, 183 mobile phone spectrum auctions 222 monetary incentives 30, 31-33, 195-198, 217 public services 200-201 see also performance-related pay (PRP) monetary quantification see commodification; cost benefit analysis (CBA) money corrosive effects of 209 see also monetary incentives mood 121-122, 125 moral convictions 217 motivation intrinsic 33, 195, 197, 200-201 public service staff 186-188, 191-198, 199, 200-201, 206 see also self-interest; status seeking national product 64-65, 70 natural talents 99, 101, 102, 105 nature ownership rights 210 putting a value on 160-161, 208, 213-214 neuroscience 50, 115-116, 117-118, 225-226 news media current perceptions of economics 6-7 doctrine of self-interest 34 silence on Baumol’s cost disease 68-69, 77 Nietzche, Friedrich Wilhelm 119 non-economic impacts 7 non-renewable resources 168 Nozick, Robert 127 Nussbaum, Martha 131 objective happiness 114, 121, 125, 126, 127 objective list theories 134-136 optimal tax theory 95-98 optimization 233 options 13-16 increasing 39-43, 182-184, 192 ownership principle 80-87, 218 pay see earnings; performance-related pay (PRP) Peak-End evaluation 17-18, 122, 125-126 perceived happiness 140 perfect preferences 37-39, 43, 135-136 performance-related pay (PRP) 33, 193-194, 195-198, 200, 237 performative contradiction 231 performative economics 223-224 personal services 69-77, 237-238 Peter the plumber 92-93 pleasure 22-23, 130-131, 134, 135 policy entrepreneurs 1-2 political economics 230-231, 233 political forums 214, 215 politics democracy and CBA 172-173, 177, 215 and happiness economics 137-138, 141-143 poll taxes 93-94 positional goods 59-61, 63, 190, 236, 237 post-tax distribution 85—86, 87, 98 precautionary principle 173—174 preferences 13, 14, 135—136, 225 and advertising 19—20 of future generations 168-169 pure time 166-167, 172 revealed by choices 21, 64 risk 156, 159, 176 satisfaction 37-43 pre-tax economic activity 92-93, 94 pre-tax income 80-84 pricelessness 209, 210 principled disagreement 201-202 priorities audit culture 193, 202 government policy 38, 50, 141,142 private property 80-81 probabilities 150, 154, 155, 161-162, 164-166 productivity 65-66 high earners 96-97 personal services 70-72, 73-74, 75-76 and taxation 88, 89, 90 progressive tax systems 96, 97 psychological well-being (PWB) 134-135 psychology 14-19 see also behavioural economics public opinion 214 public perception of risk 153, 155-156 public service ethos 194, 199-201, 205, 210,219 public services 68, 74-75, 180 affordability 74-77, 237-238 and attitudes to taxation 110-111 audit culture 192-198 complexity and importance 184-185 distinctiveness of 198-206, 216-217 ensuring real choice 188-192 implications of choices for others 185-186 motivation of service providers 186-188, 191-198, 199, 200-201, 206 trust 203-206 widening choice 182-184 see also Baumol’s cost disease pure time preference 166-167, 172 qualitative factors 163 Quality-Adjusted Life Years 174 quality of life 3, 236 measurement of 49-50, 50-55 and public ethics 135-139 quantifying the unquantifiable 162-166 targets 193 Ramsey, Frank 167 rational choice 11-12, 21, 28, 164-165 see also decision making Rawls, John 99, 101, 102 redistribution 86, 88, 92-94 maximization of happiness 95-98 Rees, Bill 232 regret 41, 42 relationships, putting a value on 208 relative consumption 58-59, 61 relative income 57-58, 59-60, 62 research objectives and methods 228-230 responsibility 41, 100, 105 rights 82, 83, 181, 210, 218 rigour in research methods 229 risk monetary value of 21, 151-158, 178, 211 versus uncertainty 161-166 rivalry 24-25, 57-62, 62-63, 237 and increasing happiness 66-67, 98 sacrifice 196 satisfaction treadmill 125, 126, 140 see also happiness treadmill scarcity 59-61, 106-107 science and economics 1, 8, 50, 224, 225,227, 228-230 Greatest Happiness principle 131-133 see also neuroscience self-control 18-19 self-help 62-64 self-interest 12, 13, 17-19, 26-36 and consumer sovereignty 21-22 politicians and economists 230-231 public service providers 187, 188 self-fulfilling assumptions of 31-34, 223 self-reported happiness see surveys, happiness Sen, Amartya 132, 136, 234 Shaw, George Bernard 208, 210 shopping 11, 12 addiction and compulsion 22-26 economist perspective 12-14 psychologist perspective 14-19 smiley-face sampling 124, 130 smiling 119-120 Smith, Adam 6 smoking 18-19, 132, 135 spare capacity in public services 190 standard of living 48 state benefits 85-86 statistical lives 151-152, 154, 207-208 status anxiety 24-25 status seeking 58-61, 62-63, 236 Stern Review 148-149, 150, 166 substitution effect 91, 92, 96 subtractive method 117 supply and demand in public services 189, 190 rates of pay 100, 101, 105, 106 surveys 214 contingent valuation 152, 157 happiness 53-54, 114-115, 116-117, 118-124, 130, 137 public services users 182 sustainability 171 sustainable development 173 Sutton, Willie 34 targets see audit culture taxation 76, 79-98 cigarettes 132 effect on work 88-92 evasion 35 incentive to work 109-112 ownership principle 80-87 redistribution 86, 88, 92-94 to maximize happiness 94-98, 237-238 teachers 70 team working 193, 194 technical innovation 65, 70, 73-74 theory and self-fulfillment 223-224 Titmuss, Richard 33 trade-offs 13 complex choices 40-41 economic growth 63-64 life 160, 211 taxation 94, 95, 97 The Truman Show 127 trust 203-206, 230-231 TWA Flight 800 163 ultimatum game 29, 33-34 uncertainty and the precautionary principle 173 and risk 161-166 unselfish behaviour 27-28, 29 reaction to manipulation 31-32 service providers 187-188 utilitarianism 120-121, 126-133, 135,136,138-139, 183 Uttal, William 117 value judgements see ethics value for money 212 veto economics 2-3, 6, 227 Viscusi, Kip 153 volunteers 195 wage differentials 152-153, 157 Weitzman, Martin 169 work and employment 235-236 hours of 91-92, 105, 108 see also incentive to work worker inputs and outputs 104-105 Table of Contents Contents Acknowledgements Chapter One - Introduction: Ethical Economics?

In drafting the second IPCC report, most governments completely rejected this view, but a group of economists insisted that the report should include it: ‘A careful reading of the fine print revealed that they were valuing lives in rich countries at $1,500,000, in middle-income countries at $300,000, and in lowest-income countries at $100,000.’4 The final report heavily qualified this approach, but not because any consensus was reached: ‘The outcome of it all was that the IPCC is very reluctant to engage in that controversy again because the proponents on both sides are still there and obviously still willing to have another fight if the opportunity was given to them.’5 And in preparing subsequent reports, the IPCC has attached less importance to ubiquitous monetary valuation. But many economists are dissatisfied, and their arguments have been invoked as part of attempts to discredit the IPCC and the Kyoto Protocol. In July 2005 a British House of Lords committee published an influential report on climate change that pressed the IPCC to ‘monetize’ all costs and benefits, and give more prominence to such measures. It acknowledged that the controversy over the monetary valuation of life had been an obstacle, but dismissed such objections and explicitly sided with the economists.6 In its conclusions and media summary, the House of Lords committee went on to question the independence of the IPCC, arguing that its membership and findings were being driven by external political pressures.7 Against this view, I shall show that attempts to monetize all costs and benefits inevitably involve ethical judgements of just the sort that are vulnerable to political pressure.


Falter: Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out? by Bill McKibben

23andMe, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, American Legislative Exchange Council, Anne Wojcicki, artificial general intelligence, Bernie Sanders, Bill Joy: nanobots, Burning Man, call centre, carbon footprint, Charles Lindbergh, clean water, Colonization of Mars, computer vision, David Attenborough, disinformation, Donald Trump, double helix, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, ending welfare as we know it, energy transition, Flynn Effect, Google Earth, Hyperloop, impulse control, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Kim Stanley Robinson, life extension, light touch regulation, Mark Zuckerberg, mass immigration, megacity, Menlo Park, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, Nelson Mandela, obamacare, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, Robert Mercer, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, San Francisco homelessness, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, smart meter, Snapchat, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, supervolcano, technoutopianism, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, traffic fines, Tragedy of the Commons, Travis Kalanick, urban sprawl, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Y Combinator, Y2K, yield curve

Throughout the Holocene (the ten-thousand-year period that began as the last ice age ceased, the stretch that encompasses all recorded human history), the carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere stayed stable, and therefore so did the sea level, and hence it took a while for people to worry about sea level rise. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted in 2003 that sea level should rise a mere half meter by the end of the twenty-first century, most of that coming because warm water takes up more space than cold, and while a half meter would be enough to cause expense and trouble, it wouldn’t really interfere with settlement patterns.16 But even as the IPCC scientists made that estimate, they cautioned that it didn’t take into account the possible melt of the great ice sheets over Greenland and Antarctica.

See also glaciers; sea ice iGen immune systems Inconvenient Truth, An (film) Inconvenient Truth … or Convenient Fiction, An (film) India individualism Indonesia inequality inertia infant mortality Ingraffea, Tony insects InsideClimateNews (website) Institute for Justice Intel Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Interior, Department of the International Congress of Genetics, Sixteenth International Organization for Migration International Space Station internet Inuit Iowa IQ scores Iran Iraq Ireland irrigation Italy IVF treatment Jackson, Jesse Jacobs, Jane Jacobson, Mark Jaeger, John Jakarta Japan Java Sea jellyfish Jenner, Kylie Jeopardy!

But the important thing to remember is that it all happened behind closed doors, in meetings confined to a few scientists and officials.1 The world, its leaders and its citizens, effectively knew nothing of the threat until the hot June day in 1988 when a mid-career NASA scientist named James Hansen testified before a Senate committee that “the greenhouse effect has been detected and it is changing our climate now.”2 In the weeks that followed, members of Congress introduced the National Energy Policy Act to “address … heat-trapping gases produced in burning fossil fuels.” The world’s atmospheric scientists announced the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to track the crisis. And Vice President George H. W. Bush, in the midst of a successful campaign for the White House, announced that he would “fight the greenhouse effect with the White House effect.” It looked like America meant business, that a response was starting to take shape.


pages: 369 words: 98,776

The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas

Airbus A320, back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Haber-Bosch Process, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, megacity, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Negawatt, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, planetary scale, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, Stewart Brand, Tragedy of the Commons, two and twenty, undersea cable, University of East Anglia

; descent of; birth of; brain development; drive hominid relatives to oblivion; Pleistocene overkill and Hudson River Huhne, Chris Hurricane Katrina Hybrid: The History and Science of Plant Breeding (Kingsbury) hydroelectric dams/power hydrogen as fuel hydrological cycle hydrological engineering Independent India: carbon emissions; alternatives to high carbon aviation; hydroelectricity in; vultures in; pollution in; black carbon and; Copenhagen summit and Indonesia Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) International Energy Agency (IEA) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Whaling Commission (IWC) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) irrigation Israel IUCN Red List J. Craig Venter Center Jackson, Jeremy Jacobson, Mark Japan: earthquake and tsunami, 2011; climate change in; Fukushima disaster, 2011 Jordan River Journal of Geophysical Research keystone/apex predators Kruger, Tim Kunin, Professor Bill Kyoto Protocol, 1997 Labrador Sea Lake District Lake Powell land use boundary; human impact on; importance of ecological zones; a plan for land; protected land; global value of wilderness; intensification of farming and; integrated pest management; agroforestry; aquaculture; meat and energy; REDD; population growth and urbanization Leipold, Gerd Lenton, Tim Les Rois Liberal Democratic Party life, creating new forms of; origin of Limits to Growth report, 1972 Lovelock, James Lovins, Amory Lucas, Caroline Madagascar Mahli, Yadvinder malaria Maldives: levy on diving trips considered; climate change and; Copenhagen summit and; pledges carbon neutrality Malua Forest Reserve mass extinctions Max Planck Institute McKibben, Bill McNeill, John megacities “megafauna fruit” Mekong delta mercury Merkel, Angela Met Office Hadley Centre, U.K.

Another difference between ozone and climate is that authoritative scientific assessments have not been as successful in convincing naysayers about the latter as they were with the former. This is not due to any shortcomings in the scientific process: Evidence about the reality of global warming is far more overwhelming today than it was about the threat to the ozone layer in the mid-1980s. Nor have the experts failed to speak with one voice: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has delivered unimpeachably weighty assessments over the years, underlining its growing confidence about the science on climate change. But with climate the reactionary backlash has been unprecedentedly successful. It is almost forgotten now, but there was a denialist backlash against ozone regulation too, centered in the U.S. in the mid-1990s, which swayed some important politicians.

Deniers promoting the so-called “Climategate” affair took a few out-of-context quotes and superficially embarrassing private slips by leading scientists from some leaked emails and nearly managed to publicly discredit not only the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia but several other leading institutes too. Vociferous promoters of a subsequent scandal took a single mistake about Himalayan glaciers, buried deep in the second weighty tome of the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, and used it to attack the entire IPCC process, and the role of Chair Rajendra Pachauri in particular. None of this changed anything we knew—anything that mattered—about the reality of climate change, but the deniers succeeded in making climate science an ideological battleground, where the expert consensus was rejected by whole political parties and large sections of the media as itself partisan.


pages: 338 words: 104,684

The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy by Stephanie Kelton

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, blockchain, bond market vigilante , Bretton Woods, business cycle, capital controls, central bank independence, collective bargaining, Covid-19, COVID-19, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, discrete time, Donald Trump, eurozone crisis, fiat currency, floating exchange rates, Food sovereignty, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global supply chain, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, inflation targeting, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), investor state dispute settlement, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, liquidity trap, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, market bubble, Mason jar, Modern Monetary Theory, mortgage debt, Naomi Klein, National Debt Clock, new economy, New Urbanism, Nixon shock, Nixon triggered the end of the Bretton Woods system, obamacare, open economy, Paul Samuelson, Ponzi scheme, Post-Keynesian economics, price anchoring, price stability, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, San Francisco homelessness, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Tax Reform Act of 1986, trade liberalization, urban planning, working-age population, Works Progress Administration, yield curve, zero-sum game

Richard “Skip” Bronson, “Homeless and Empty Homes—an American Travesty,” Huffpost, May 25, 2011, www.huffpost.com/entry/post_733_b_692546. 44. IPCC, Global Warming of 1.5º C, Special Report, United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018, www.ipcc.ch/sr15/. 45. Nathan Hultman, “We’re Almost Out of Time: The Alarming IPCC Climate Report and What to Do Next,” Brookings Institution, October 16, 2018, www.brookings.edu/opinions/were-almost-out-of-time-the-alarming-ipcc-climate-report-and-what-to-do-next/. 46. Umair Irfan, “Report: We Have Just 12 Years to Limit Devastating Global Warming,” Vox, October 8, 2018, www.vox.com/2018/10/8/17948832/climate-change-global-warming-un-ipcc-report. 47. Brandon Miller and Jay Croft, “Planet Has Only Until 2030 to Stem Catastrophic Climate Change, Experts Warn,” CNN, October 8, 2018, www.cnn.com/2018/10/07/world/climate-change-new-ipcc-report-wxc/index.html. 48.

The science indicates that, to avoid the worst climate change scenarios, we need to limit global warming over this century to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Current plans, however, would only limit the temperature rise to 3 or 4 degrees Celsius above that threshold. What happens if we fail to close the gap between where we are and where we need to be? The latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) paint a dire picture: rising sea levels, more drastic flooding, more severe droughts, stronger storms and hurricanes, and heat waves leading to many more deaths. Many coastal cities and communities around the world could become unlivable, and significant climate pattern shifts could upend crops and freshwater supplies, leading to hundreds of millions of new climate refugees.

But the most likely business-as-usual scenarios do suggest global poverty reduction could be set back decades, which intrinsically means hundreds of millions of additional deaths.61 But then, that’s assuming the consensus of the IPCC reports isn’t significantly underestimating the danger.62 These are only the most likely scenarios; we may be underestimating the cascade effects and feedback loops, meaning there’s a small but real chance that business as usual will lead to far more catastrophic results. “We’re already at 1 degree warming and seeing some significant impacts,” Hultman wrote, summing up the IPCC’s conclusions. “1.5 degrees is going to have more severe impacts; 2 degrees has more; and we probably don’t want to test what happens above 2 degrees—although our current momentum appears to have us on a trajectory for about a 3 degrees or more world.”


pages: 433 words: 124,454

The Burning Answer: The Solar Revolution: A Quest for Sustainable Power by Keith Barnham

Albert Einstein, Arthur Eddington, carbon footprint, credit crunch, decarbonisation, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, Ernest Rutherford, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Kickstarter, Naomi Klein, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, Richard Feynman, Schrödinger's Cat, Silicon Valley, Stephen Hawking, the scientific method, uranium enrichment, wikimedia commons

You can follow day-by-day measurement of CO2 level in the atmosphere from Mauna Loa Observatory on the Keeling Curve site at Scripps Institution of Oceanography [11]. The 2013 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which presented the convincing evidence that humankind is responsible for most of the global warming, is reference 12. If you, or anyone you are discussing with, still doubts this, compare two graphs: Figure SPM.1a in the IPCC report (the measured rise in global temperature averaged over a decade) and the Keeling curve graph for years 1700 to the present date. Both of them start an upward trend around 1900 when oil started to be seriously exploited.

This means that Pauli’s principle gives the exact number of electrons in a full orbit. 1931 Wilson publishes his theory of semiconductors. 1947 Bardeen, Brattain and Shockley start the semiconductor revolution by demonstrating a transistor that involves electron conduction and also positive conduction in a nearly full valence band. 1954 Chapin, Fuller and Pearson demonstrate a 6 per cent efficient silicon solar cell. 1973 Solar Power Corporation reduce the price of silicon PV panels fivefold in two years by using crystals rejected by the silicon chip industry. 1978 Handheld calculators appear on the market powered by amorphous silicon thin film solar cells. 1990 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to global warming. 1994 The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) produces a GaAs-based, two-junction cell with efficiency higher than any single junction PV cell. Japan launches a 70,000-roof PV programme. 1998 Germany initiates a 100,000-roof programme. 2000 The feed-in-tariff (FIT) is introduced in Germany for most forms of renewable energy. 2002 More than 90 per cent of all new homes in Sweden are equipped with a heat pump. 2004 The price of PV panels stops falling.

air conditioning, 286, 366 solar-powered, 283, 285–7 use of heat pumps, 201–2 air source heat pumps, 203–4, 343–4 incentives for, 292 alien civilisations, 2, 18, 127, 269–70, 323 alpha radiation, 75, 77 amorphous silicon, 131 Ampère, André-Marie, 26 Ampère’s law, 31 Maxwell’s addition, 31–6 amplifiers, 43–4 anaerobic digestion (AD), 182–4, 206–7, 309 Arctic ice caps, shrinkage, 152, 313, 368 Aresta, Michele, 361 Areva, 227, 305–6, 370 argon, electron orbits, 64 artificial leaf, 265–70, 284, 269, 310, 361 Atkins, Peter, 325 Atlantic Array offshore wind farm, 303–4, 370 atmosphere, carbon dioxide concentrations, 150, 254, 313, 370 atom, splitting of see nuclear fission atomic structure, 13–14, 27 Rutherford’s work, 57–8, 75 Bohr’s work, 56–9 Schrödinger equation, 64–65 Pauli principle, 61–2 ‘Atoms for Peace’, 86 balance-of-systems cost, PV installations, 189 band-gap energy, 106 direct band-gap, 132 indirect band-gap problem, 129–32; solutions, 131–2, 133–4 Bang, Mads, 360 banks, shareholder campaigns, 279–81 Barber, Jim, 261, 262–3, 361 Bardeen, John, 118, 311 Bath and West Community Energy group, 208, 346–7 batteries, electric cars, 240, 241 Becquerel, Henri, 75 Beerten, Jef, 183, 185, 342 Bellis, Mary, 358 Benn, Tony, 89, 331 beta radiation, 75 big bang, 12 biogas (biomethane), 205–7, 274, 346 production, 198, 208–9, 313 biogas electricity generators, 178–9 carbon footprint, 178–9 Kombikraftwerk project, 154–61, 163 biological solar fuels, 264–5 biomass electricity generators, 178–9 carbon footprint, 178–9 Blyth, William, 353 Bohr, Niels, 56–65, 311, 357 boron, as a diversity atom, 110–13 Boyle, Willard, 128 BP Solar, 228–9 Brattain, Walter, 118, 311, 335 Braun, Carl, 42–4, 311 British Nuclear Fuels Limited (BNFL), 90–1 Browne, John, 228–9, 352 Bruton, Tim, 229 Bryson, Bill, A Short History of Nearly Everything, 3 burning definition of, 17 when it began, 19 Burns, Ciaran, 346 cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar cells, 132, 229 Calder Hall reactor, 87–8 Cambrian explosion, 16, 325 Cameron, David, 230, 353 Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND), Sizewell Working Group, 90 campaigning groups, 364 carbon, diamond crystals, 100–2 carbon dioxide capture by photosynthesis, 261, 263–5 concentrations in the atmosphere, 150, 313, 370 direct capture from the air, 254–9, 360–1 as a greenhouse gas, 152–3 carbon dioxide emissions Climate Change Committee recommendations, 181, 212 International Energy Agency analysis, 353 lobbying for limits, 278 carbon footprints biomass–biogas cycle, 178–9 of natural gas electricity generation, 181–3 of nuclear electricity, 183–7 of solar fuels, 253 Carboniferous period, 16 carbon molecules, diversity, 71 carbon-neutral communities, 207, 208 Carnot, Sadi, 197–8 catalysts 247–9, 253 cavity radiation 49–51 central heating systems, 195–9 CERN, 219, 236, 295, 367 Chadwick, James, 75–6, 331 chain reaction, nuclear fission, 81 Chapin, Daryl, 124, 311 charged coupled devices (CCDs), 128–9 Chatten, Amanda, 267 China air conditioning, 285–7 solar panel manufacture, 189, 312 solar revolution, 293–5, 366 civil plutonium, military use, 90–2 Climate Change Committee (CCC), recommendations on carbon dioxide emissions, 181, 212 Clive, Barry, 285, 366 CMOS (Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor), 120 coal, formation of, 16 coincidences, Einstein cusp, 2 electron proton charge, 25 every visible photon, 123 raising electron to band, 110 raising electron from band, 111 temperature of sun, 123–4 combined heat and power (CHP), 179–80 geothermal energy, 174 J V Energen, 205–6 solar CPV , 141 combined power plants, Kombikraftwerk project, 154–61 community power schemes, 161, 207–8, 275, 346 complementary resources, wind power, 146–9 comparemysolar, comparison site 189–91, 344 computers, development of, 120–1 concentrating solar power (CSP), 168 DESERTEC project, 283–5 concentrator photovoltaics (CPV), 141, 168, 191 and carbon dioxide capture, 257–8 potential in sun-rich countries, 287, 289–90 recharging electric cars, 245 tracking systems, 292 conduction bands metals, 103 semiconductors, 106 conductors, 98 quantum picture of, 102–4 conservation of energy, 46, 200 ‘contracts for difference’, nuclear power, 227, 303 copper-indium diselenide (CIS) solar cells, 132 core of the earth, 170 Cornell study on shale gas extraction, 224–5 cost of biogas electricity, 309 cost of nuclear power, 157, 161, 183 cost of solar power, 156–9, 344 household PV panels, 188–90 cost of wind power, offshore, 305, 3720 onshore, 189, 344 Cox, Brian, 3, 323 Curie, Marie, 75 Curie, Pierre, 75 current, electrical, 27 Dawkins, Richard, 325 de Broglie, Louis, 60–1, 311 de Forest, Lee, 43 Denmark, combined heat and power schemes, 180 community power schemes, 207, 346 target 2050, all renewable, 211–2, 349 use of renewable resources, 174, 252 Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), Renewable Energy Roadmap (2011), 171, 340 ‘Pathways to 2050’, 216–7 depleted uranium, military use, 93, 332 DESERTEC project, 283–5 deuterium, 82 diamond as an insulator, 100–2 refraction of light, 104 Dickens’s equation, 29–30 digital cameras, 127–8 diodes, 113–4, 334–5 see also light emitting diodes (LEDs) Dirac, Paul, 62, 67, 311 direct action, 281 distributed generation (micro-generation), 127, 274, 277 see also community power schemes diversity atoms (dopants), 109–13, 335 diversity diodes, 115–6, 118, 335 in transistors, 118–21 dual-conductors, 113, 335 see also semiconductors Duggan, Geoff, 294, 367 Durrant, James, 361 dynamos, 39 E = hf, 2–4, 53–5 Einstein’s interpretation, 55–8 and electron orbits, 59 E = mc2, 2–4 meaning of, 46–7 earth history of, 16, 17–19 surface temperature, 150–1 EDF, open letter to, 302–6 Einstein, Albert, 3, 36, 236 interpretation of E = hf, 55–8, 311 and nuclear weapons, 87 see also E = mc2 electric cars, 235, 240 fuel cells, 246–7, 360 fuel efficiency, 244 history of, 241–2 information sources, 358–9 present-day use, 242–3 recharging, 244, 245 ‘electric eyes’ (photodetectors), 124–5 electric fields, 24–6, 99 electricity early use of, 39–40 as flow of electrons, 99 generation of, 38–9; Faraday’s Law, 27–8; modern methods, 40 electricity costs Germany, wholesale PV 158–9, 307 savings from PV panels, 190 southern Italy, 157 electricity demand, variation through the day, 154–5 electric motors, 39 electrolysis, 249 electromagnetic waves, 35 energy of; Planck’s work, 52–3; Rayleigh’s work, 50–1 generation and detection, 41–2 Maxwell’s discovery of, 23–4 electromagnetism, 36 electronics, impact on Second World War, 97–8 electron orbits, 58–9 2, 8, 8 mystery, 65–7 and reactivity of elements, 63–5 Schrödinger’s wave equation, 61–2 stability of, 67–9 electrons, 11, 25 behaviour in crystals, 101–2 behaviour in insulators, 102 behaviour in metals, 102–4 uncertainty principle, 63–4 electron spin, 62, 67 electron waves, 60–1, 63 electroweak force, 37–8 elements, 11 formation in stars, 12–14 reactivity, 63–5 Elliott, David, 217, 325 energy, 46 conservation of, 46, 200 relationship to power, 5–6 units of, 7 energy efficiency, 179–80 Energy Savings Trust, 180, 190, 196, 345 Englert, François, 296 environmental groups, 275 equations Dickens’s equations, 29–30 E = hf, meaning of, 52–5 E=mc2, meaning of, 46–7 Maxwell’s, 28–9, 30–1, 327; application of, 38–40 wave equations, 34 ethanol carbon footprint, 253 safety of, 252–3 ‘Ethanol Economy’, 253 problems with, 269 ethanol fuel cells, 252–3 European Power Reactor (EPR), construction costs, 185, 304, 344 evolution, 16–17, 260–1, 262–3 exclusion principle, Wolfgang Pauli, 66–7 exponential expansion of PV power, 162–3 Fairlie, Ian, 331 Faraday, Michael, 21, 25, 39 generation of electrical power, 27–8 Faraday’s law, 30 feed-in-tariff (FIT) policies, 162–4, 277 Germany, 210, 338 United Kingdom, 350 Feldheim, Germany, first carbon neutral community, 207, 346 Fermi, Enrico splitting of the atom, 77–8, 80 work on Manhattan Project, 83 fermions, 77 fertilisers, production by anaerobic digestion, 206 Feynman, Richard, 67, 69, 70, 86, 327 on conduction, 97, 99, 103 on electron sharing, 68, 329 field-effect transistor, 119–20 Film4Sun, 286–7, 366 Finding, Nick, 205, 346 Finney, David, 217 first law of thermodynamics, see thermodynamics First Solar, 132–3, 229, 312 First World War, 59 flat dwellers, solar power options, 191–2 Fleming, John Ambrose, 43 Forshaw, Jeff, 3, 323 fossil fuel industry development of solar fuels, 279–81 influences, 39–40 open letter to, 308–10 fossil fuel lobby, 230–1, 352–3 fossil fuels depletion of reserves, 18 formation of, 16, 17 quantum bonding, 70–2 fossil fuel subsidies, 230–1, 278, 308, 353 Frack Off, environmental action group, 275 fracking, 223–5, 276, 301, 352 Fraunhofer laboratories, 218–19 frequency of waves, 48 Friends of the Earth, environmental action group, 275, 369 Frisch, Otto, 79, 80, 330 fuel cells, 235, 246–7 in electric cars, 240, 242, 248–50 information sources, 359–60 methanol and ethanol, 253–3 predictions, 314 Fukushima nuclear disaster, 18, 306, 325 consequences for nuclear power industry, 157, 211, 227, 228, 238, 312 Fuller, Calvin, 124, 311 fundamental forces electromagnetism, 35–6 electroweak force, 37 fusion bomb project, 86 fusion research, 175, 273, 361, 363 Gabriel, Joseph, 334 gallium arsenide (GaAs), 133 alloys, 135 quantum wells, 138–9 in third generation solar cells, 140 Gallium Arsenide Street, 138 gallium nitride LEDs, 136 gamma radiation, 75 gas see biogas; natural gas gas molecules, energy distribution, 52 Gasplasma, 206 Gauss, Carl Friedrich, 30 geothermal energy, 74–5, 170–1 combined heat and power (CHP), 174 as a nuclear technology, 174–5 sustainability, 171–4 Germany biogas electricity generation, 179 community power schemes, 207, 346 cost of solar power, 157–8, 159, 305 expansion of PV power, 161–3, 312, 337 expansion of wind power, 164 feed-in-tariff (FIT) policy, 162, 338 Kombikraftwerk project, 154–6 national grid, 160 national laboratories, 218–20 photovoltaic power programme, 95 political influences, 209–11 target 2050, all solar electricity, 179, 211 use of renewable energy, 5 Gill, Ed, 193, 345 global warming, 1, 17, 306, 307, 315 action on, 313–14 explanation of, 151–2 information sources, 370–1 potential impact of fracking, 224–5 Goeppert, Alain, 253 Goldhaber, Gerson, 69 Good Energy, 192–3, 345 Gore, A1, 166, 340 gravity, 47 Green Electricity Market Place, 192, 345 Greenfield Energy, 346 green gas see biogas greenhouse effect, 152 greenhouse gases, 152 see also carbon dioxide; methane greenhouses, solar-powered, 288 Greenpeace, environmental action group, 275, 281 Gribbin, John, 328 grid parity, 156–7, 158–9 ground source heat pumps, 198–203, 292, 345–6 incentives for, 277 Grove, William, 246 Hahn, Otto, 78–9 Haslam, David, 364 Hassard, John, 177, 341 Hawking, Stephen, 2, 29, 323 heat energy, 49 as means of energy storage, 154 heat exchangers, 199 Heath, Garvin, 183–4, 185, 342 heating air source heat pumps, 203–4 biogas supplies, 205–7 electrical systems, 195–6 ground source heat pumps, 198–203 heat pumps, 197–8, 345–6 air source, 203–4 ground source, 198–203 incentives for, 277 reversible, 201 use by supermarket chain, 201–2 use in Sweden, 201 Heede, Richard, 365 Heisenberg, Werner, uncertainty principle, 62–3, 68 helium atomic structure, 11 electron orbit, 64 formation in stars, 12 Hertz, Heinrich, 41–2, 311 Hesketh, Ross, 90, 331 Higgs, Peter, 296 Higgs boson, 295–6, 367 high electron mobility transistor (HEMT), 139 Hill Robert, 290 Hinkley Point A reactors, 90 Hinkley Point C reactors, construction costs, 185–7 information sources, 372–3 open letter to stakeholders of EDF, 302–6 projected costs, 160 Hoffmann, Peter, 359 ‘holes’ (positrons), 108–9, 114 household PV panels, 153–4 cost, 188–90 information sources, 344–5 recharging electric cars, 244–5 solutions for less suitable roofs, 190–2 human evolution and development, 17 hybrid cars, 241–2 hydrogen fuel cells, 248–50 methanol/ethanol fuel cells, 251–2 hydrocarbon molecules, 71–2 hydrogen atomic structure, 11 isotopes, 82 production of, 248–9, 267, 314 quantum bonding, 67–8 safety of, 249–50 hydrogen bomb, 86 hydrogen fuel cells, 248, 359 in electric cars, 248–50 hydropower, 125 carbon footprint, 182 construction costs, 185 energy storage, 156, 160 large-scale, 168–9 small-scale, 169 HydroVenturi technology, 177 ice caps, shrinkage, 152, 312, 313, 370 Iceland, use of renewable resources, 211, 290–1, 349 impurity atoms, 107 benefits of diversity, 109–13 indirect band-gap problem, 129–30 solutions, 131–2, 133–4 Industrial Revolution, 20–1, 197 infrared catastrophe, 58 insulators, 98–100 quantum picture of, 100–2 integrated circuits, 119 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 312, 371 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 296, 297 367 International Energy Agency (IEA), carbon emission origins, 224, 353 one-third fossil fuel reserves, 227, 314, 352 Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS), 95, 332 subsidies, 230–1, 353 International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), 297 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 297, 367 international solar laboratory, 295–8 inverters, 286 Iran, potential of solar technology, 300–1 isotopes, 81–2 of hydrogen, 82 see also tritium of uranium, 82–3 Israeli-Palestine conflict, potential of solar technology, 300 Italy cost of solar power, 157 photovoltaic power use, 95 speed of PV power expansion, 163 Japan Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs, 85 photovoltaic power programme, 95 see also Fukushima nuclear disaster Jews, persecution of, 77 Joliot-Curie, Frederic, 81 Joliot-Curie, Irene, 78, 79 Jungk, Robert, Brighter than a Thousand Suns, 77, 78, 79, 80, 84, 85, 237–8, 330 J V Energen, 206 Keeling, Charles, 370 Keeling, Ralph, 370 Kelsall, Geoff, 267 Kelvin, Lord, 197–8, 345 Kennedy, Robert F.


pages: 520 words: 129,887

Power Hungry: The Myths of "Green" Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future by Robert Bryce

addicted to oil, Bernie Madoff, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, cleantech, collateralized debt obligation, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, disinformation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Menlo Park, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks

Between 1990 and 2009, India’s electricity production nearly tripled, reaching 834.3 terawatt-hours in 2008, and about 68 percent of that power generation now comes from the burning of coal.42 But even with the huge increases in power production, 40 percent of Indian homes still don’t have electricity and 60 percent of Indian industrial firms rely on alternate forms of generation because the power grid isn’t reliable.43 India is tired of lagging behind the rest of the world. That message was made clear by none other than Rajendra Pachauri, the Indian academic who chairs the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In July 2009, Pachauri asked reporters, “Can you imagine 400 million people who do not have a light bulb in their homes?” And he went on to explain where India was going to be getting its future power: “You cannot, in a democracy, ignore some of these realities and as it happens with the resources of coal that India has, we really don’t have any choice but to use coal.”44 The necessity of coal in developing countries was made clear in October 2009 by none other than U.S.

need for increased electricity in and nuclear power power consumption in(fig.) ranking of, by GDP and electricity generation(table) Industrial Revolution Infant mortality rates Innumeracy, issue of Inpex Holdings Institute for 21st Century Energy Institute for Fusion Studies Institution of Mechanical Engineers Integrated energy parks Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International Energy Agency (IEA) on carbon capture and sequestration on decarbonization on demand in the oil market on emissions on estimated global gas resources on gas-fired capacity on global gas resources on global liquified natural gas production on the growth of renewables on nuclear power on oil demand and GDP on peak oil on projected costs for new electricity generation plants(fig.)

(By late 2009, the concentration was about 390 parts per million.) On October 24, 2009, the supporters of the 350 parts per million target conducted more than 4,000 synchronized demonstrations around the world. Their aim: to build a “global community” to support the 350 ppm goal.18 The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri, has said he is “fully supportive” of the 350 ppm goal.19 In November 2009, former vice president Al Gore, appearing on the Late Show with David Letterman, declared that unless the people of the world took drastic action to curb carbon dioxide emissions, it could be “the end of civilization as we know it.”20 Gore may be right.


pages: 411 words: 108,119

The Irrational Economist: Making Decisions in a Dangerous World by Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Paul Slovic

"Robert Solow", Andrei Shleifer, availability heuristic, bank run, Black Swan, business cycle, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cross-subsidies, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, endowment effect, experimental economics, financial innovation, Fractional reserve banking, George Akerlof, hindsight bias, incomplete markets, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, iterative process, Kenneth Arrow, Loma Prieta earthquake, London Interbank Offered Rate, market bubble, market clearing, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, placebo effect, price discrimination, price stability, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Savings and loan crisis, source of truth, statistical model, stochastic process, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, urban planning, Vilfredo Pareto

WEATHER EXTREMES: WHY THE POOR SUFFER THE MOST The impacts of natural hazards on economic well-being have escalated alarmingly in recent decades. Although increased population and wealth in vulnerable areas remain the main factors in explaining rising losses, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that extreme event impacts are “very likely” to change because of increasing weather variability.3 There is even mounting evidence of a current “climate signal,” with the IPCC (2007) reporting observations of widespread changes in temperature, wind patterns, and aspects of extreme weather, including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves, and the intensity of tropical cyclones.

Hurricane Betsy Hurricane Camille Hurricane Diane Hurricane Hugo, insured losses from Hurricane Ike Hurricane Katrina floods of government aid following impact of insured losses from Mississippi Gulf Coast and New Orleans and policy innovation and recovery from reinsurance/actuarial value after (table) Hurricane Rita, reinsurance/actuarial value after(table) Hurricane Wilma, reinsurance/actuarial value after(table) Hurricanes damage from fiscal deficits and reinsurance against risk for tourism economy and Incentives Inconvenient Truth, An (Gore) Influenza pandemics Information asymmetric as commodity economic assumption of interpreting/manipulating limited meaning of measuring acquisition of processing seeking value of Infrastructure Management and Extreme Events Program Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) Institutions, reinventing Insurance accident adequate auto benefits/costs/challenges of buying car rental catastrophe contracts crop decisions about deposit development assistance and disaster assistance and earthquake efficiency and excessive fire flight government health index-based homeowners Insurance (continued) hurricane international support for life long-term low-deductible mitigation and mortgage municipal bond prevention and pricing pricing (risk-based) principles private public relief and risk and subsidized terrorism underinsurance unemployment vouchers Insurance Assistance Facility Insurance contracts long-term short-term Insurer solvency, thoughts on Integrated Assessment Models Interdependence growth of weak links and Interdependent security (IDS) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Intervention Intuition moral Investment “Irrational Economist, The” conference Irrationality Jaffee, Dwight Johnson, Eric Johnson, Lyndon environmental issues and Johnson, Steven Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Judgment Just-in-time society Just, Richard Kahneman, Daniel Kasperson, Roger Keelin, Tom Keeney, Ralph Kennedy, John F.

On the one hand, the times we’re in today are rather like the 1960s and early 1970s: There is again a widespread intuition that we are doing something potentially disastrous to the environment. There is nobody as eloquent as Rachel Carson in Silent Spring, but Al Gore’s documentary An Inconvenient Truth and his Nobel Prize have had an impact, as have the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Stern Review, other official bodies emphasizing the changes we are forcing in our most basic environmental systems, and the stream of television documentaries about the threats to forests and marine life. On the other hand, there is a major difference between the environmental issues we face today and those that precipitated the flurry of legislation under Johnson and Nixon.


pages: 560 words: 158,238

Fifty Degrees Below by Kim Stanley Robinson

airport security, bioinformatics, Burning Man, clean water, Donner party, full employment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, iterative process, Kim Stanley Robinson, means of production, minimum wage unemployment, North Sea oil, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Feynman, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, the scientific method

He focused on her list: • Coordinate already existing federal programs • Establish new institutes and programs where necessary • Work with Sophie Harper, NSF’s congressional liaison officer, to contact and educate all the relevant Congressional committees and staffs, and help craft appropriate legislation • Work with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN Environmental Program, its Millennial Project, and other international efforts • Identify, evaluate, and rank all potential climate mitigation possibilities: clean energy, carbon sequestration, etc. This last item, to Frank, would create the real Things To Do list. “We’ll have to go to New York and talk to people about that stuff,” Diane said.

All the board members in attendance seemed on board with that. Potential partners were being identified in the scientific community, also supportive members of Congress, sympathetic committees. As Diane kept saying, they needed legislation, they needed funding. Meanwhile she was working with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Council for Science, the World Conservation Union, the National Academy of Engineering, NASA and NOAA, the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the World Meteorological Organization, the World Resources Institute, the Pew Charitable Trust, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the President’s Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology, the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Nature Conservancy, the Ecological Society of America, DIVERSITAS, which was the umbrella program to coordinate global research effort in the biodiversity sciences, and GLOBE, which stood for Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment— “And so on,” she concluded, looking impassively at the PowerPoint slide listing these organizations.

The gatherings had a Burning Man festival aspect to them, the sybaritic excess and liberal shooting off of fireworks leading many to call it Drowning Man, or Freezing-Your-Butt-Man. This year, however, the party had been somewhat taken over by the Inuit nation Nunavut, in conjunction with the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, who had declared this “The Year of Global Environmental Awareness,” and sent out hundreds of invitations, and provided many ships themselves, in the hope of gathering a floating community that would emphasize to all the world the undeniable changes already wrought by global warming.


Battling Eight Giants: Basic Income Now by Guy Standing

basic income, Bernie Sanders, centre right, collective bargaining, decarbonisation, diversified portfolio, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, full employment, future of work, Gini coefficient, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, labour market flexibility, Lao Tzu, longitudinal study, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, open economy, pension reform, precariat, quantitative easing, rent control, Ronald Reagan, selection bias, universal basic income, Y Combinator

The perils of rapid climate change have become only too clear, with Britain too facing disruption of weather patterns, droughts, floods and the threat of rising sea levels. All mainstream political parties have committed to the country’s pledge under the Paris Agreement of 2015 to slash CO2 emissions by 2030. But existing policies fall far short of what is needed to honour our national pledge. Moreover, in 2018, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed that to avoid massive and dangerous environmental destruction the world should be aiming to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C, rather than the 2°C targeted by the Paris Agreement. Yet, without urgent and decisive action, we will hit the critical 1.5°C temperature rise from pre-industrial levels by 2030.

See also individual entries definition 1, 4–8 reasons for need 8–9 security 98, 113, 114 system 1, 20, 23, 26, 32, 37, 52, 70, 84, 90–1, 122 n.7 Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN) 94 behavioural conditionality 70, 73, 77, 114 behaviour-testing 4, 39, 70, 84 benefits 5, 7, 27 conditional schemes 41 social assistance 23 BET365 11 Beveridge, William 8–9, 38 Beveridge model 21 Big Bang liberalization 18 BJP 92 black economy 40, 60 B-Mincome 99–100 Booker, Cory 101 brain development 98–9 132 Branson, Richard 54 Brexit 53 Britain 6, 8–10, 12–18, 20, 23–4, 26–7, 30–1, 33–4, 37–8, 40–2, 55, 57, 59, 90, 101, 104, 112 British Columbia 95 British Constitution 1 Buck, Karen 57 bureaucracy 40, 49, 100, 102 Bureau of Economic Analysis 16 Business Property Relief 58 California 69, 96–7 Canada 35 capacity-to-work tests 6, 104 cap-and-trade approach 34 Capita 50 capital dividend 59 capital fund 89–90 capital grants 59, 75, 76, 92 carbon dividends 37 carbon emissions 33–4 carbon tax 34–5, 37 care deficit 53 care work 36, 53, 67, 74, 84 cash payments 111 cash transfers 99 ‘casino dividend’ schemes 88 charities 48 The Charter of the Forest (1217) 1 Chicago 99 Child Benefit 57, 58, 72, 123 n.4 childcare 99, 110–11 child development 88 Child Tax Credits 81 chronic psychological stress 26 Citizens Advice 46–8 Citizen’s Basic Income Trust 7, 122 n.7, 123 n.4 citizenship rights 1, 29 civil society organizations 79 Index climate change 34 Clinton, Hillary 126 n.4 Clinton, Bill 105 Coalition government 41, 50 cognitive performance 33 collateral damage 53 common dividends 7, 20, 21, 59–60, 69, 73, 75, 83, 84, 85 Commons Fund 8, 35, 57, 59, 89 community cohesion 3 resilience 23 work 84 ‘community payback’ schemes 102 Compass 59 compensation 2, 7, 16, 104 ‘concealed debt’ 24–5 conditional cash transfer schemes 90 Conservative government 9, 85 Conservatives 23 consumer credit 24 consumption 23 contractual obligations 46 Coote, Anna 113 cost of living 25, 49, 52, 83 council house sales 76 council tax 25 Crocker, Geoff 122 n.15 cross-party plans 80 crowd-funded schemes 100 deadweight effects 102 ‘deaths of despair’ 27 Deaton, Angus 10 debt 23–6, 67, 85 debt collection practices 24–5 decarbonization 34 dementia 33 democratic values 69 Democrats 37 demographic changes 15 Index 133 Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) 11–12, 42–8, 50–2, 73, 81, 92, 129 n.6 depression 28, 94 direct taxes 56, 58 disability benefits 6, 49–52, 83 Disability Living Allowance (DLA) 49–51 Disabled People Against Cuts 52 Dividend Allowance 58 ‘dividend capitalism’ 8 domestic violence 29, 87 Dragonfly 92 due process 46, 49 ecological crisis 33, 37, 39, 114 ecological developments 21 ecological disaster 35 ecological taxes and levies 37 economy benefits 20, 60 crisis 106 damage 34 growth 20, 36, 106 industrialized 20 insecurity 21, 35, 39, 89 security 75, 80, 84, 88 system 15, 27, 38 tax-paying 60 uncertainty 8, 22–3, 31 ‘eco-socialism’ 8 ecosystems 33 Edinburgh 80 education 88, 108 Elliott, Larry 122 n.15 employment 16, 22, 39, 60–1, 81, 89, 93–4, 102, 106, 107, 110, 114 Employment Support Allowance (ESA) 27, 41, 49–51 England 28, 63, 110–11 Enlightenment 85 Entrepreneurs’ Relief 18 equality 31, 85 Europe 37 European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound) 120 n.1 European Heart Journal 33 European Union 6, 17, 41 euthanasia 113 extinction 33–7 ‘Extinction Rebellion’ 33 Fabian Society 57–8 Facebook 97 family allowances 56 family benefits 56 family insecurity 23 federal welfare programs 106 Fife 24, 80 financial crash (2007–8) 23, 26, 34 financialization 116 n.22 financial markets 18 Financial Services Authority 123 n.15 Financial Times 19, 123 n.15 financial wealth 18 Finland 28, 61, 93–5 food banks 10, 29–30, 43, 109 food donations 29 food insecurity 108–9 fossil fuels 33–4 France 12, 17, 18, 32, 38, 57 free bus services 112 freedom 8, 30, 84, 85, 101, 114 ‘free food’ 108–9, 129 n.6 ‘free’ labour market 106 free trade 13 Friends Provident Foundation 75 fuel tax 35 fund and dividend model 89 funding 29, 59, 62, 69, 71–2, 112 134 G20 (Group of 20 large economies) 15 Gaffney, Declan 57 Gallup 105 GDP 14, 17–18, 23–4, 34, 36, 59, 89, 108 General Election 91–2, 94 ‘genuine progress indicator’ 36 Germany 17–18, 38, 100 Gillibrand, Kirsten 101 Gini coefficient 9, 12 GiveDirectly 91 Glasgow City 80 globalization 14 Global Wage Report 2016/17 14 global warming 33, 37 Good Society 75, 106 The Great British Benefits Handout (TV series) 92 Great Depression 9 Great Recession 23 greenhouse gas emissions 34, 36 gross cost 110 The Guardian 101, 103, 122–3 n.15 Hansard Society 37 Harris, Kamala 101 Harrop, Andrew 57 Hartz IV 100 HartzPlus 100 health 67, 87, 100 human 33 insurance premiums 35 services 60 healthcare costs 28 hegemony 14 help-to-buy loan scheme 76 Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) 64, 73, 81 Hirschmann, Albert 56 household debt 24 Index household earnings 16 household survey 12 House of Commons 110–11 housing allowance 95 Housing Benefit 24, 41, 53, 71 housing policy 53 hub-and-spoke model 112 Hughes, Chris 97 humanity 33 human relations 3 ‘immoral’ hazard 109 ‘impact’ effects 78 incentive 62 income 81 assistance 88 average 83 components 11 distribution system 4, 13–14, 38, 67, 84, 107, 114 gap 9 growth 16 insecurity 27 men vs. women 15–16 national 14, 36 pensioners’ 16 rental 13–15, 20 social 14, 16–17 support payments 110 tax 1, 7, 57, 89, 111 transfer 85 volatility 22 India 68, 80, 90–2 Indian Congress Party 91 inequality 2, 4, 9–13, 21, 29, 31, 33, 35, 37, 38, 39, 54, 80, 85, 114 growth 17 income 9–10, 15–17, 19 living standard 20 wealth 18–19, 76 informal care 111 Index 135 inheritance tax 58 in-kind services 111 insecurity 21–3, 29, 38, 39, 47, 67, 85, 106 Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) 10 Institute for Public Policy Research 125 n.17 Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) 75, 111 Institute of New Economic Thinking 123 n.15 Institute of Public Policy Research 59 insurance schemes 8 intellectual property 14–15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 34 International Labour Organization (ILO) 14, 122 n.4 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 31, 34 international tax evasion 18 interpersonal income inequality 83 inter-regional income inequalities 83 intra-family relationships 3 involuntary debt 26 in-work benefits 22 Ireland 35 Italy 18 labour 31, 107 inefficiency 106 law 101 markets 8, 14, 32, 39, 40, 60, 62–3, 96, 100, 106 regulations 13 supply 67, 95 Labour governments 85 labourism 106 Lansley, Stewart 59 Latin America 90 Left Alliance 94 Lenin, Vladimir Ilyich 113 Liberal government 35 life-changing errors 51 life-threatening illness 33 Liverpool 80 living standards 20, 23, 33, 36, 53, 59, 92 Local Housing Allowances 24 London Homelessness Project 92–3 low-income communities 33 low-income families 21 low-income households 17 low-income individuals 86 Low Pay Commission 63 low-wage jobs 60, 107 Luddite reaction 32 lump-sum payments 35, 59, 76 Jackson, Mississippi 99 JobCentrePlus 47 job guarantee policy 101–7 job-matching programs 106 Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) 41, 46 Joseph Rowntree Foundation 21 McDonnell, John 129 n.13 McKinsey Global Institute 31 Macron, Emmanuel 35 Magna Carta 1 ‘Making Ends Meet’ 97 ‘mandatory reconsideration’ stage 51 Manitoba 87–8 Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment (Mincome) 87 market economy 105, 114 master-servant model 101 Kaletsky, Anatole 123 n.15 Kenya 90–2 Khanna, Ro 103 Kibasi, Tom 113 136 Index Maximus 50 means-testing 4, 39, 42, 48, 58, 61–2, 70, 84, 88, 90, 109–10, 114 benefits 5, 7, 27, 40, 46, 56, 71–3, 81, 129 n.6 social assistance 23, 41, 95, 122 n.7 system 6 medical services 28 Mein Grundeinkommen (‘My Basic Income’) 100 mental health 26, 28, 94 disorders 88 trusts 28 mental illness 33, 68 migrants 7, 113 ‘minimum income floor’ 45 Ministry of Justice 51 modern insecurity 22 modern life 31 monetary policy 59 Mont Pelerin Society 13 moral commitment 75 moral hazard 109 mortality 27, 76 multinational investment funds 34 Musk, Elon 31, 54 Namibia 90–2 National Audit Office (NAO) 24, 43–4, 46, 76 National Health Service (NHS) 8, 24, 27–8, 44, 68, 80, 108, 111 National Insurance 18, 22, 124 n.4 nationalism 37 National Living Wage 63 National Minimum Wage 63–4 national solidarity 3 Native American community 88 negative income tax (NIT) 23, 87, 95, 100 neo-fascism 37–8 neoliberalism 13, 84 Netherlands 96 New Economics Foundation (NEF) 57, 113, 122 n.15 non-resident citizens 113 non-wage benefits 16 non-wage work 74 North America 67 North Ayrshire 80 North Carolina 88 North Sea oil 89–90 Nyman, Rickard 23 Oakland 96–7 Office for National Statistics (ONS) 14–15, 17, 36 Ontario, Canada 95–6 open economy 84 open ‘free’ markets 13, 15 opportunity dividend 59 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 18, 23, 27, 31 Ormerod, Paul 23 Osborne, George 19 Paine, Thomas 2, 75 Painian Principle 2 panopticon state 55 Paris Agreement (2015) 34 participation income 74–5 paternalism 42, 55 pauperization 63 Pawar, Alderman Ameya 99 pay contributions 21 pension contributions 18, 58 Pension Credit 41 Pericles Condition 75 permanent capital fund 71 personal care services 110–11 Index 137 personal income tax 35 Personal Independence Payment (PIP) 49–51 personal insecurity 23 Personal Savings Allowance 58 personal tax allowances 17, 58, 59 perverse incentives 50 physical health 26, 94 piloting in Britain 67–81 applying 80–1 rules in designing 70–80 policy development 3, 69 political decision 78 political discourse 92 political instability 35 political system 38 populism 37–8, 75 populist parties 37 populist politics 39 Populus survey 55 post-war system 8 poverty 2, 4, 10–12, 22, 27, 29, 36, 38, 40, 60–1, 89, 100, 108–9, 114, 125 n.17, 129 n.6 precarity 29–30, 38, 39, 60–1, 85, 103, 129 n.6 Primary Earnings Threshold 124 n.4 private debt 23–4, 39 private inheritance 2 private insurance 85 private property rights 13 private wealth 18 privatization 13, 17, 112 property prices 76 prostitution 43 Public Accounts Committee (PAC) 51 public costs 28 public debt 23 public inheritance 61 public libraries 47 public policy 97 public sector managers 103 public services 4, 17, 62, 108, 112, 114 public spending 89 public wealth 18 ‘quantitative easing’ policy 59 quasi-basic income 89, 98 quasi-universal basic services 30 quasi-universal dividends 35 quasi-universal system 61, 70, 90 Randomised Control Trial (RCT) 124–5 n.14 rape 44 Ratcliffe, Jim 12 Reagan, Ronald 13 Reed, Howard 59 refugees 7 regressive universalism 57 regular cash payment 7 rent arrears 24 controls 53 rentier capitalism 13–21, 107, 116 n.22 republican freedom 2–3, 30, 84 Republicans 37 Resolution Foundation 10, 15, 19, 25, 76 ‘revenue neutral’ constraint 7 right-wing populism 37–8 robot advance 31–3 Royal College of Physicians 33 Royal Society of Arts 55, 59, 124 n.12 RSA Scotland 125 n.17 Rudd, Amber 9 Russia 113 138 Sanders, Bernie 101 scepticism 31 schooling 67, 89 Scotland 69, 80, 111 Second World War 19, 21 security 8, 38, 55, 68, 84 economic 3, 4, 49, 56 income 73–4 social 8, 22, 49 Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) 68 self-employment 45 Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer 3, 115 n.3 Smith, Iain Duncan 42 ‘snake oil’ 113 social assistance 3, 28 social benefit 20 social care 102, 104, 110–11 social crisis 106 social dividend scheme 92 Social Fund 29 social inheritance 2 social insecurity 21 social insurance 22, 85 social integration 44 social justice 2, 8, 20, 69, 84, 101, 114 social policy 8, 23, 26, 30, 42, 53, 84–5, 96 social protection system 32 social relation 100 social security 10, 70–1, 95 social solidarity 3, 8, 39, 61, 84–5, 91 social spending 17 social status 104 social strife 35 social value 29 ‘something-for-nothing’ economy 19–20, 61 Index Speenhamland system 63 State of the Global Workplace surveys 105 statutory minimum wages 106 stigma 47, 55 stigmatization 41, 109 Stockton 97–9 Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration (SEED) 97 stress 26–9, 39, 51, 67, 68, 85, 93 student loans 24 substitution effects 102–3 suicides 26–7 Summers, Larry 105–6 Sweden 113 Swiss bank Credit Suisse 12 Switzerland 35 tax advantages 49 and benefit systems 17, 18, 69, 110 credits 3, 17, 24, 63, 105, 106 policies 16 rates 72 reliefs 17–18, 57–8, 61 tax-free inheritance 19 technological change 105 technological revolution 14, 31, 114 ‘teething problems’ 42 Thatcher, Margaret 13 Thatcher government 9, 18 The Times 92 Torry, Malcolm 122 n.7 Trades Union Congress 24 tribal casino schemes 76 ‘triple-lock’ policy 16 Trump, Donald 37 Trussell Trust 29, 43 Tubbs, Michael 97–8 Index 139 Turner, Adair 123 n.15 two-child limit 44 UK.


pages: 288 words: 85,073

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund

animal electricity, clean water, colonial rule, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, first square of the chessboard, first square of the chessboard / second half of the chessboard, global pandemic, Hans Rosling, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), jimmy wales, linked data, lone genius, microcredit, purchasing power parity, Stanford marshmallow experiment, Steven Pinker, Thomas L Friedman, Walter Mischel

In some extreme cases, households may experience an average of 60 power outages per week and still be listed as “having access to electricity.” The question, accordingly, talks about “some” access. See gapm.io/q12. Fact Question 13: Correct answer is A. “Climate experts” refers to the 274 authors of the IPCC[1] Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), published in 2014 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), who write, “Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios”; see IPCC[2]. See gapm.io/q13. Illusions. The idea of explaining cognitive biases using the Müller-Lyer illusion comes from Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman (2011). The ten instincts and cognitive psychology.

Search results for feature films filtered by year. gapm.io/ximdbf. India Census 2011. “State of Literacy.” Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India. 2011. gapm.io/xindc. ISC (Internet System Consortium). “Internet host count history.” gapm.io/xitho. IPCC[1] (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Authors and Review Editors. May 27, 2014. gapm.io/xipcca. IPCC[2]. Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)—Climate Change 2014: Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, page 10: “Surface temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emission scenarios.” Accessed April 10, 2017. gapm.io/xipcc.


pages: 197 words: 49,296

The Future We Choose: Surviving the Climate Crisis by Christiana Figueres, Tom Rivett-Carnac

3D printing, Airbnb, autonomous vehicles, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, disinformation, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, F. W. de Klerk, Fall of the Berlin Wall, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Lyft, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Nelson Mandela, new economy, ride hailing / ride sharing, self-driving car, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, the scientific method, trade route, uber lyft, urban planning, urban sprawl, Yogi Berra

This textbook, authored by “distinguished climate scientists,” was sent to teachers, with a letter urging them to use the book and its accompanying DVD in their classrooms. The Heartland Institute, which promotes denial of established climate science, encouraged people to “seek out advice from independent, non governmental organizations and scientists who are free of financial and political conflicts of interest” rather than relying on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for scientific advice. It would have been extremely difficult for some recipients of that book to determine whether this was real science or bunk, and whether the authors were indeed distinguished climate scientists. In fact, one author was formerly director of environmental science at Peabody Energy (a coal company that went bankrupt).

Stefan Jungcurt, “IRENA Report Predicts All Forms of Renewable Energy Will Be Cost Competitive by 2020,” SDG Knowledge Hub, January 16, 2018, http://sdg.iisd.org/​news/​irena-report-predicts-all-forms-of-renewable-energy-will-be-cost-competitive-by-2020/. 45. United Nations Climate Change, “IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C,” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, https://unfccc.int/​topics/​science/​workstreams/​cooperation-with-the-ipcc/​ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-15-degc. 46. Sunday Times Driving, “10 Electric Cars with 248 Miles or More Range to Buy Instead of a Diesel or Petrol,” Sunday Times (UK), July 1, 2019, https://www.driving.co.uk/​news/​10-electric-cars-248-miles-range-buy-instead-diesel-petrol/. 47.

That is, 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the preindustrial average global temperature. 17. For a full explanation, see Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, “Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC,” 2018, https://www.ipcc.ch/​sr15/. 18. Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart, eds., Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000), https://www.ipcc.ch/​report/​emissions-scenarios/. 2. THE WORLD WE ARE CREATING 1. Department of Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, World Health Organization, “Ambient Air Pollution: Health Impacts,” https://www.who.int/​airpollution/​ambient/​health-impacts/​en/. 2.


Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence, and the Poverty of Nations by Raymond Fisman, Edward Miguel

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, blood diamonds, clean water, colonial rule, congestion charging, crossover SUV, Donald Davies, European colonialism, failed state, feminist movement, George Akerlof, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, mass immigration, megacity, oil rush, prediction markets, random walk, Scramble for Africa, selection bias, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, unemployed young men

If changing global weather brings less rain to Africa, it may also bring more war. Global Weathermen Despite the lingering naysayers, scientists worldwide largely agree that climate change is happening and isn’t going away anytime soon. This consensus is expressed in the United Nations scientific report called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment, whose authors were awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize (together with Al Gore). The leading researchers who penned the report agree that in the coming decades, rising global temperatures and sea levels will change life as we know it, altering landscapes and habitats across the globe.19 But while many experts generally agree that the planet is heating up, there are divergent views on exactly how it’ll change and by how much.

See also Rapid Conflict Prevention Support (RCPS) Geschiere, Peter, 140 Ghana, 142 Gine, Xavier, 199–200 Githongo, John, 208–9 Giuliani, Rudy, 104 Gladwell, Malcolm, 19–20 Glennerster, Rachel, 227n14, 231nn6, 7 Glewwe, Paul, 194 global warming: China and, 127–29; predicted effects of, 129–31; Sahelian Africa and, 131–34, 225n21; U.S. and, 127–29 Grain of Wheat (Ngugi), 2 Guidolin, Massimo, 182b–84b Halliburton, 29, 220n19 HIV/AIDS, 9, 191–92 Hoeffler, Anke, 228n20, 230n13 Homo economicus, 6, 87 Hong Kong, 55–57 Houtafa Ag Moussa, 122 incentives, economic, 188–89; bribery and, 80; parking violations and, 103b–5b; policy formulation and, 189–91; smuggling and, 61–62, 65, 70–73, 78–79 India, 21 Indonesia: road building in, 197–99; Suharto and, 22–24, 33–40, 187, 218nn7, 8, 9 (see also Suharto) insider information, stock trading and, 34–40 institutionalists, 12–15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), 129 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 39–40, 41–42, 154 Iraq: army dissolution and, 180–81; civilian casualties in, 119b; national identity in, 179; rebuilding of, 178–81 Italy: corruption in, 93b; Mafia in, 43b–46b; political connections in, value of, 48–49 Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX), 33, 36–40, 217n6, 218n7 Japan, postwar recovery of, 162–63, 179–80 Jeffords, Jim, 51 Jolie, Angelina, 9 Kenya: childrens’ names in, 123b; development program evaluations in, 193–95; economic growth of, 204–5; fighting for development in, 1–3; Mungiki and, 147b–48b; police salaries in, 189; politics and politicians in, 1–5; road building in, 186–87; village of Sauri and, 202–6.

The International Energy Agency Statistics, 2007 (www .iea.org) contains detailed global data on CO2 emissions. 19. The full report can be found at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ (last visited March 29, 2008). Much of the research in this section is based on ongoing joint work with John Dykema and Shanker Satyanath. We are especially grateful to John Dykema for many insightful conversations on climate models. 20. This is for the range of low emission to high emission scenarios: see http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html, p. 13 (last visited March 29, 2008). 21. There is no single accepted definition of the Sahel. The following organizations have different definitions: USAID (http:// www.usaid.gov/press/factsheets/2005/fs050803.html), the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (http://www.africa-union.org/root/ au/ RECs/cen_sad.htm), and the International Development Research Centre (http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-43109-201-1-DO_TOPIC. html).


pages: 437 words: 115,594

The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World by Steven Radelet

"Robert Solow", Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, business climate, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, clean water, colonial rule, creative destruction, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Gini coefficient, global pandemic, global supply chain, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, John Snow's cholera map, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, land reform, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, Nelson Mandela, off grid, oil shock, out of africa, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, Shenzhen special economic zone , Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, special economic zone, standardized shipping container, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, women in the workforce, working poor

And this consensus among the health community has convinced most Americans that the health risks from smoking are real. A similar consensus now exists among climate scientists, a consensus that maintains climate change is happening, and human activity is the cause.7 According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric temperatures rose by about 0.85°C (about 1.5°F) during the last century, and the first decade of the twenty-first century was the hottest on record. Ocean temperatures have risen even faster. Sea levels have risen by about 0.2 meters over the last century, on average, and in some places, they have risen higher.

What We Know: The Reality, Risks and Response to Climate Change (New York: American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2014), p. 6, http://whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/whatweknow_website.pdf. 8. “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis—Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), last modified January 30, 2014, www.climatechange2013.org. 9. Nicholas Stern, “How Climate Change Will Affect People Around the World,” chap. 3 in Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (London: Government of the United Kingdom, 2006), http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100407172811/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm. 10.

., 97 Hindu nationalists, 287 Hitler, Adolf, 127, 146 HIV/AIDS, 20, 75, 81–82, 83, 94, 95, 173, 174–75, 182, 205, 214, 221, 246, 266 Hobbes, Thomas, 24 Honduras: coup in, 97–98 crime in, 264 war in, 145 Hong Kong: British control of, 153 and globalization, 155 growth in, 147 hookworm, 205 housing, 24, 307 humanitarian relief, 213 human rights groups, 110 Hungary, 7, 143 illiberalism in, 255, 263 protests in, 134 trade encouraged by, 155 Huntington, Samuel, 104, 105, 112, 121, 122, 146, 197, 265, 296 Hussein I, King of Jordan, 187 illiberal democracy, 264 immunization, 94, 178 income, 3, 5, 8, 17, 25, 31, 32, 40, 77, 94, 294 in Africa, 12 in China, 201 climbing, 240–41, 240 doubling of, 4, 5–6, 44 education, health and, 89–93 falling, 11, 49 income inequality, 65–71 between countries, 69–71, 70 within countries, 65–69 incubators, 175 independence from colonialism, 140–43 India, 3, 7, 22, 32–33, 37, 127, 159, 203, 289, 292, 297 colonialism in, 140 data entry firms in, 178 demand in, 53 as democracy, 98, 122, 123, 126 economic reforms in, 192 emigration from, 284 floods in, 281 future of, 234 growth in, 6, 8–9, 17, 21, 45, 50, 71, 128, 235, 237 inequality in, 69–70 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 innovation in, 302 malaria in, 211 natural capital in, 63 Pakistan’s wars with, 141, 145 poverty reduction in, 244 slowdown in growth of, 237, 255, 257, 262 software companies in, 56 terrorism in, 287 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 water demand in, 279 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Indian Institute of Technology, 247 Indonesia, 10, 36, 124, 127, 184, 289 agriculture in, 58–59, 204 aid for schools in, 216 aid to, 214, 223 benign dictatorship in, 126 child mortality in, 85 colonial legacy in, 136–40 demand in, 53 democracy in, 106, 112, 114, 115, 122, 123, 124, 250 demonstrations in, 281 as dictatorship, 99, 122 factories in, 201 fertility rates in, 85, 85 growth in, 6, 7, 22, 38–39, 50, 71, 125–26, 128, 147, 233, 238, 242, 262 healthcare in, 95 individual leadership in, 187 Nikes from, 56 population growth in, 85 rice yields in, 215–16 terrorism in, 286 timber, 223 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 industrial equipment, 165 industrial revolution, 24, 25, 77, 135, 166, 300 industry, 45, 56, 260 inequality, 258 infant mortality, 92, 118, 175, 306 in South Africa, 183 infectious diseases, 92 inflation, 11, 192 in Africa, 12 information, 166, 234 information revolution, 175–79, 176 infrastructure, 164, 201, 207, 262 aid projects for, 216 Inkatha Freedom Party, 182, 185 innovation, 234, 258, 292, 294 in China, 236 Institute of World Economics and Politics, 298 institutions, 200, 294, 297–98, 303–4 and resource curse, 206 insurance companies, 241 insurance markets, 305 interest rates, 233, 305 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 282 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), 171 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 102, 235, 237, 239, 258, 259, 260, 298, 309 International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), 171, 215–16 internet, 162, 175, 233, 300 investment, 6, 20, 22, 52, 156, 157, 166, 301, 304–5, 306 in Africa, 12 in technology, 234, 246 Iran, 114, 124 coup in, 100 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Iraq, 8, 114, 118, 124, 285 US invasion of, 8, 118, 124, 146 Ireland, 284 iron, 25, 53, 159 Islam, 124 fundamentalist, 265 Islamabad, 287 Israel, 106, 285 Istanbul, 201, 206 Istanbul Technical University, 247 Italy, 47, 104 ivory, 152, 206 Jakarta, 137 Jamaica, 49, 50 Jamison, Dean, 246 Japan, 19, 20, 21, 146, 167, 201, 288, 290, 292, 298, 300 as democracy, 122, 123, 126, 250, 296 colonialism in Indonesia, 137 industrialization of, 25–26 leadership needed by, 234 post–World War II boom in, 262 reforms in, 295 slowing of progress in, 250, 255, 257 Jarka, Lamine Jusu, 104 Java, 152, 204 Jensen, Robert, 177 job training, 38 Johannesburg, 58 Johnson, Simon, 13 Johnson Sirleaf, Ellen, 3, 120, 184, 185, 209, 217 Jordan, 285 growth in, 45 individual leadership in, 187 life expectancy in, 78 poverty in, 36 JSI Research and Training Institute, 173 Kabila, Laurent, 185 Kagan, Robert, 253 Kampala, 177 Kaplan, Robert, 11 Kapstein, Ethan, 198 Karimov, Islam, 8, 127, 144, 185 Kathmandu, 203, 206 Kazakhstan, 36, 106, 115, 285 Kelly, James, 254 Kenny, Charles, 11, 93 Kenya, 18, 169 accounting firms in, 56 data entry firms in, 178 horticulture in, 169 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Kerekou, Mathieu, 144 Kharas, Homi, 240–41, 261 Khatun, Jahanara, 270, 272 Khmer Rouge, 114 Khrushchev, Nikita, 250 Kim, Jim Yong, 231, 242 Kim Il Sung, 100, 144, 184 Kirkpatrick, Jeanne, 124 Kissinger, Henry, 271 Kodari, 203 Kolkata, 203 Korean War, 81, 100, 141, 145 Kosovo, and democracy, 248 Kotler, Steven, 300 Kraay, Aart, 65 Kufuor, John, 189–90 Ku Klux Klan, 124, 265 Kurlantzick, Josh, 263 Kuwait, 47 Kuznets, Simon, 66 KwaZulu-Natal, 182 Kyrgyzstan, 205, 285 labor unions, 102 Lancet, 91, 245, 267, 284, 306 Landes, David, 13 Laos, 184 Latin America, 11, 36, 146 colonialism in, 140 economic growth in, 255 growth in, 50, 141 inequality in, 67–68 megacities in, 277 reforms in, 192 Latvia, growth in, 128 Laveran, Alphonse, 211 leadership, 16, 17–18, 131, 184–87, 200, 201, 234, 303–4 Lebitsa, Masetumo, 57 Lee, Jong-Wha, 87 Lee Kuan Yew, 7, 121, 122, 123, 125, 127 Lensink, Robert, 226 Lesotho, 57, 103 Levine, Ruth, 214 Levi Strauss & Co., 165 Lewis, Arthur, 66 Liberia, 3, 11, 18, 159, 184, 185, 285 aid to, 217 democracy in, 106, 145 Ebola in, 82 growth in, 7, 50 health system in, 266 infrastructure investment in, 216 violence in, 120, 145, 146, 206, 209, 217 Libya, 115 life expectancy, 78–79, 79, 92, 93, 232, 266, 271, 294 Lipset, Seymour Martin, 121 literacy programs, 161, 162, 176, 178–79 literacy rates, 87 Liu Yingsheng, 153 London, 24, 201 Lord’s Resistance Army, 287 Lukashenko, Alexander, 85 Maathai, Wangari, 18 McAfee, Andrew, 166, 300 Macapagal-Arroyo, Gloria, 264 McLean, Malcolm, 167 Madagascar, 49, 50, 263 Mahbubani, Kishore, 241 malaria, 6, 10, 14, 73, 75, 92, 94, 205, 209–13, 221, 246, 302 Malawi, 103, 122, 175, 208 Malaysia, 136 benign dictatorship in, 126 and democracy, 248, 250 forest loss in, 280 malaria in, 211 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Maldives, 152, 284 Mali, 206 child mortality in, 84 coup in, 114, 264–65 democracy in, 103, 108, 122, 123, 263 economic problems in, 255 as landlocked, 205 poverty in, 122 malnutrition, 73, 80 Malthus, Thomas, 270, 273–74, 275 Mandela, Nelson, 17, 149, 180, 182–83, 184, 198, 309 released from jail, 103, 143, 148 Mandelbaum, Michael, 11 manufacturing, 25, 37–39, 45, 56, 67, 156, 260, 261–62 in China, 235–36 Mao Tse-tung, ix, 35, 81, 102, 123, 127, 134, 185 Maputo, 44 Marcos, Ferdinand, 11, 100, 103, 104, 109, 127, 141, 143, 148, 222 Mariam, Mengistu Haile, 144 Marrakesh, 206 Marshall Islands, 284 Maseru Tapestries and Mats, 57 Massmart Holdings Ltd., 46 Matela Weavers, 57 maternal mortality rates, 246 Mauritania, 281 Mauritius: aid to, 216 child mortality in, 84 as democracy, 98 growth in, 5, 37, 50, 126, 128 Mbasogo, Teodoro Obiang Nguema, 184 Mearsheimer, John, 290–91 measles, 92, 94, 161 Mecca, Zheng He’s trip to, 152 medical equipment, 20, 165 medicine, 21, 31 megacities, 277 Meiji Restoration, 25–26, 146 Melaka, 136 Menchú Tum, Rigoberta, 18 Mexico, 159, 162 default by, 101–2 democracy strengthening in, 115 demonstrations in, 281 emigration from, 284 growth in, 235 Micklethwait, John, 295 middle class, 20, 240–41 Middle East, 36, 184, 256, 265 conflict in, 146 democracy and, 265 financing in, 259 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 82–83 oil from, 201 trade and, 159 middle-income trap, 261 Milanovic, Branko, 65, 70 Millennium Challenge Corporation, 216 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), 18, 30–31, 95, 217, 242 Millennium Summit, 217 Mills, John Atta, 189 minerals, 22, 152, 205–6 Ming China, 151–53 minimum wage, 165 mining, 278 Ministry of Finance, Gambia, The 190 Mitteri Bridge, 203 Mobarak, Mushfiq, 59 Mobile Alliance for Maternal Action (MAMA), 178 mobile devices, 47 mobile phones, 157, 175–78, 176 Mobilink-UNESCO, 179 Mobutu Sese Seko, 11, 100, 127, 141, 143, 145, 222 Moi, Daniel Arap, 103 Moldova, 6, 7, 36, 143 Mongolia, 108 aid to, 223 coal and iron ore exported by, 53 democracy in, 104, 122, 123, 144 growth in, 6, 7, 45, 128 Moran, Ted, 164–65 Moreira, Sandrina Berthault, 226 Morocco: demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 6, 50 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 poverty in, 36 Morrisson, Christian, 25, 27, 28 mosquitoes, 212 Moyo, Dambisa, 12 Mozal aluminum smelter, 44 Mozambique, 11, 18, 43–45, 159 aid to, 214, 216 aluminum exported by, 53 and democracy, 248 demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 6, 50, 261 inequality in, 67 infrastructure investment in, 216 reforms in, 192 state-owned farms in, 195 war in, 100, 145 M-Pesa, 47 Mubarak, Hosni, 113, 125, 185 Mugabe, Robert, 8, 106, 113, 127, 144, 181, 182, 185, 221 Mumbai, 287 Museveni, Yoweri, 112, 187 Musharraf, Pervez, 113 Mussolini, Benito, 104, 146 Myanmar, 9, 22, 112, 144, 184, 208, 263 child mortality in, 82 cyclones in, 281 health improvements in, 93 Namibia, ix, x, 37 democracy in, 135 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 266 war in, 100, 145 National Academy of Sciences, US, 172 National Constituent Assembly, Tunisia, 124 National Institutes of Health, US, 302 natural capital, 62–63 Natural Resource Governance Institute, 306 Nazarbayev, Nursultan, 106 Nazism, 124, 146, 265, 309 Ndebele tribe, 180 Nepal, 37, 174, 203–4, 208 democracy in, 107, 122, 123 demonstrations in, 281 as landlocked, 202, 205 poverty in, 122 Netherlands, 47 Indonesian colonialism of, 136–37, 138, 139 New Development Bank, 259 New Orleans, La., 201 New York, N.Y., 201, 277 New York Times, 104, 176–77, 270 New Zealand, 25, 78, 167, 202, 231 Nicaragua, 11, 36 democracy in, 104 war in, 100, 145 Niger, 208 agriculture in, 204 democracy in, 124, 263 as landlocked, 202, 205 mobile phones in, 177–78 Nigeria, 115, 159, 243, 245, 287 dictatorship in, 99, 113 health technology in, 175 oil in, 285 per capita wealth in, 62 Nike, 165, 202 Nkomo, Joshua, 181 noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), 268 non-governmental organization (NGOs), 110, 221 Noriega, Manuel, 144 North Africa, 36 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 82–83 trade and, 159 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 156, 162 North Korea, 8, 9, 100, 144, 184, 192, 208, 243 nutrition, 232 Obama, Barack, 297 Obama administration, 297 O’Hanlon, Michael, 299 oil, 44, 53, 62, 67, 114–15, 201, 205, 285 in Equatorial Guinea, 223 in Indonesia, 138, 139 oil crises, 10 open markets, 131 Opium Wars, 153 oral rehydration therapy (ORT), 94, 173, 215 overfishing, 61 overtime regulations, 165 Paarlberg, Rob, 172 Pakistan, 37, 162, 243, 245, 285–86 conflict in, 118, 119 coup in, 113 and democracy, 263 emigration from, 284 factories in, 58 India’s wars with, 141, 145 terrorism in, 287 violence in, 146 Panama, 9 growth in, 50, 128, 238 US invasion of, 144 Panama Canal, 211 Panasonic, 202 Papua New Guineau, 50, 213 Paraguay, 50, 280 Park Chung-hee, 99, 122 patents, 157 Peace Corps, 75, 90, 202 pensions, 38, 241 People Power Revolution, 186 Perkins, Dwight, 235 pertussis, 94, 161 Peru, 159, 185, 285, 287 agriculture in, 56–57 copper exported by, 53 demonstrations in, 281 pharmaceuticals, 20, 165 Philippines, 7, 11, 17, 18, 100, 103, 121, 127, 184, 185, 201, 222, 289, 290, 297 call centers in, 178 corruption in, 264 democracy in, 104, 106, 109, 122, 123, 250, 263 growth in, 242 inequality in, 67 nickel exported by, 53 rice yields in, 215–16 transcribers in, 56 Piketty, Thomas, 68–69 Pinker, Steven, 115 Pinochet, Augusto, 107–8, 122, 141, 143–44, 187 Plano Real (“Real Plan”), 187 Plundered Planet, The (Collier), 292 pneumonia, 73 Poland, 6, 18, 36, 103, 143, 184, 186 protests in, 134 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 polio, 94, 119, 161, 215 Polity IV Project, 107, 109 pollution, 302 Population Bomb, The (Ehrlich), 274 population growth, 21, 80–81, 84, 95, 233, 234, 272, 273–77, 276 Portfolios of the Poor (Collins et al.), 32, 33–34 Port of Cotonou, 216 Portugal, 105, 123, 136 poverty, 94, 294 definitions and terminology of, 26–27 democracy and, 121 as exacerbated by conflicts, 119, 119 as man-made, 180 poverty, extreme, 5, 8, 25, 26, 27–30, 30, 31–35, 36, 41, 42, 118, 231, 232, 240, 241–45, 244, 256, 271 in China, 35, 36, 242 in Indonesia, 136 in South Africa, 183 poverty, reduction of, 3, 4, 5, 8, 17, 21, 27–31, 28, 30, 34–35 in Africa, 12 in China, 201 after global food crisis (2007), 12 ignorance of, 10 lack of attention to, 10 poverty traps, 14–16 pregnancy, 178 press, freedom of, 198–99 Preston, Samuel, 92 Preston curves, 92 Pritchett, Lant, 89, 235, 262 Programa Bolsa Família, 38, 67 progress in developing countries, x, 3–5, 45–53, 46, 49, 229, 237–39, 238 democratization and, see democracy factors for, 16–19 future of, 21–23 as good for West, 19–21 income growth in, 240–41, 240 investment in, 238 and long historical perspective, 13 and microlevel studies, 13–14 middle class emergence in, 240–41 pessimism about, 9–12 possible stalling of, 255–56 possible tripling of incomes in, 277–78 and poverty traps, 14–16 reduction of poverty in, see poverty, reduction of threats to, 291–92 transforming production in, 262–63 property rights, 142, 303 protein, 280 Protestant work ethic, 120–21 Publish What You Pay, 305 Punjab, 178–79 Putin, Vladimir, 224, 255 Radelet, John, 60 Rahman, Ziaur, 271 Rajan, Raghuram, 225, 237 Rajasthan, 33 Ramos, Fidel, 103 Ramos-Horta, José, 184 Ravallion, Martin, 27, 29, 64, 227, 243 Rawlings, Jerry, 188–89 Rebirth of Education, The (Pritchett), 89 recession (1980s), 10, 191 Reebok, 164 religion, freedom of, 198–99 religious bodies, 110 Reserve Bank, Zimbabwe, 181 resource curse, 54, 163, 206 resource demand, 21, 233, 272, 281 resource extraction, 162–63 resources, 275 in Africa, 261 resource wars, 284–86 retail trade, 37, 45 Return of History and the End of Dreams, The (Kagan), 253 Reuveny, Rafael, 272 Rhodes, Cecil, 180 Rhodesia, 43 rice, 139, 215–16 rickshaw drivers, 32–33 Ridley, Matt, 11 rights, 131, 161, 198–99 rinderpest, 215 Rio de Janeiro, 46, 58, 159, 201 river blindness, 214 roads, 169, 233, 235 aid for, 216 in South Africa, 202 Robinson, James, 13, 140, 249 robotics, 261, 301 Rockefeller Foundation, 170 Rodrik, Dani, 261, 263 Roll Back Malaria Partnership, 212 Romania, 36, 50, 134, 143 Romero, Óscar, 100 Roosevelt, Franklin, 100 Roosevelt, Theodore, 169 Ross, Ronald, 211 Royal Economic Society, 226 Russia, 47, 146, 222, 256 democracy in, 113, 263, 264 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 slowing of progress in, 250, 264 Ukraine invaded by, 192, 233 US aid banned by, 224 Rutagumirwa, Laban, 176–77 Rwanda, 144, 159 aid to, 214, 216, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 growth in, 6, 7, 45, 50, 125, 128, 261 individual leadership in, 187 as landlocked, 207 Sachs, Jeffrey, 14–15, 175, 205, 210, 213, 219 Safaricom, 47 salinity, 171, 215 Sall, Macky, 114 Samoa, 202 sanitation, 73, 77, 216, 303 Sargsyan, Vazgen, 113 Saudi Arabia, 115 savings rate, 201 schistosomiasis, 205 Schlesinger, Arthur, Jr., 121 Schumpeter, Joseph, 249 Second Machine Age, The (Brynjolfsson and McAfee), 166, 300 secular stagnation, 257 seed drill, 25 seeds, 171 semiconductors, 20 Sen, Amartya, 19, 123, 127, 128 Sendero Luminoso, 287 Senegal, 7, 37 aid to, 223, 224 corruption in, 114 democracy in, 123, 124, 263 demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 261 inequality in, 67 Senkaku islands, 288 Seoul, 201 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks of, 269 services, 67, 260, 261–62 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 82, 267 Seychelles, 284 Shanghai, 201 Shenzhen, 91 Sherpas, 203 Shikha, 33–34 Shinawatra, Thaksin, 254–55, 264 Shinawatra, Yingluck, 255 Shining Path, 287 shipping, 202 shipping containers, 167–68 shock therapy, 219 shoes, 56, 139, 162, 262 Sierra Leone, 220, 285 democracy in, 104, 107 Ebola in, 82 growth in, 50 health system in, 266 violence in, 146, 206 Silk Road, 206 silks, 152 silver, 152 Simon, Julian, 294 Sin, Jaime, 18, 103 Singapore, 7, 16, 184 benign dictatorship in, 126 and democracy, 122, 248, 250 and globalization, 155 growth in, 125, 139, 147 universities in, 247 Singh, Manmohan, 192 Six-Day War, 285 skills and capabilities, 16, 190–92 slavery, 142, 156, 180, 206 smallpox, 214, 215 Smith, Adam, 151, 156, 200–201 Smith, David, 43 Smith, Marshall, 178–79 SMS text messages, 47, 178 Snow, John, 77 social safety net, 38, 39, 68, 164, 307 Sogolo, Nicéphore, 144 soil, 171, 215 Solow, Robert, 165 Somalia, 8, 9, 99, 119, 213, 243 aid to, 224 power vacuum in, 184 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Somoza García, Anastasio, 100, 127 Song-Taaba Yalgré women’s cooperative, 178 South Africa, 7, 17, 18, 20, 22, 37, 43, 46, 127, 143, 145, 155, 182–83, 207 aid to, 223 apartheid in, 44, 57, 68, 100, 103, 135, 141, 180, 182 banks in, 56 corruption in, 264 economic growth in, 183, 235, 262 future of, 234 HIV in, 174 inequality in, 68 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 life expectancy in, 266 political turmoil in, 57 roads in, 202 universities in, 247 South Asia, 37, 50 Southeast Asia, 5, 12, 167 colonialism in, 140 growth in, 141 Southern Rhodesia, 180 South Jakarta, 286 South Korea, 36, 127, 159, 184, 201, 288, 290 aid to, 214, 216 benign dictatorship in, 126 democracy in, 104, 122, 126, 250 as dictatorship, 99, 122 and globalization, 155 growth in, 7, 16, 29, 71, 125, 139, 147, 236, 262 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 68 lack of resources in, 205 land redistribution in, 68 Soviet Union, x, 50, 126, 133–34, 145, 148, 298, 309 Afghanistan invaded by, 134, 146 collapse of, 16, 81, 103, 131, 135, 142, 156, 250, 251 countries controlled by, 141 dictatorships supported by, 100 malaria in, 210 Spain, 105, 123, 140 speech, freedom of, 198–99 Spence, Michael, 86, 165 Spratly Islands, 289 Sputnik, 147, 250 Sri Lanka, 11, 37 economic problems in, 255 engineers from, 56 malaria in, 211 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Stalin, Joseph, 127 state-owned farms, 195 Stavins, Robert, 297 steam engine, 25, 300 Steinberg, James, 299 Stern, Nicholas, 213, 292 Stiglitz, Joseph, 213, 227 stock exchanges, 241 Strait of Malacca, 201 student associations, 110 Subic Bay Naval Station, 201 Subramanian, Arvind, 225 Sudan, 114, 115, 185, 206, 208, 285 aid to, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 violence in, 285 Suharto, 99, 112, 122, 126, 138–39, 144 Sumatra, 152 Summers, Lawrence, 88, 227, 235, 246, 257 Sustainable Development Goals, 217 Swaziland, life expectancy in, 266 sweatshops, 58 Sweden, 159 Switzerland, 27, 202 Sydney, 201 Syria, 8, 285 aid to, 224 conflict in, 118, 119, 146, 233, 255 in Six-Day War, 285 Taiwan, 29, 153, 201, 289, 290 aid to, 216 benign dictatorship in, 126 democracy in, 122, 126, 250 and globalization, 155 growth in, 125, 139, 147, 236, 262 individual leadership in, 187 lack of resources in, 205 Tajikstan, 205, 208 Tanzania: aid to, 214, 216 and democracy, 248 fruit markets in, 58 growth in, 45, 50, 238, 240, 261 purchasing power in, 27 reforms in, 192 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 tariffs, 44, 102, 155, 167, 193, 263, 305 Tarp, Finn, 226 tax revenues, 241, 247 Taylor, Charles, 99, 145 technology, x, 17, 19, 22, 94–96, 135, 150, 151–79, 183, 200, 206–7, 234, 245, 258, 294, 301 for agriculture, 170–71 for banking, 175, 179 in China, 154–55, 236 for education, 178–79 globalization and, 156, 166 for health, 173–75, 179, 293 terrorism and, 287–88 telecommunications, 158 Terai, 211 terms-of-trade ratio, 54 terrorism, 19, 20, 21, 146, 286–88 tetanus, 94, 161 textiles, 25, 56, 139, 152 Thailand, 9, 22, 36, 253–55, 265 benign dictatorship in, 126 child mortality in, 84 corruption in, 254, 264 and democracy, 248, 253–54, 255, 263 growth in, 139, 147, 262 protests in, 255, 263 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Theroux, Paul, 12 Things Fall Apart (Achebe), 72 think tanks, 110 Third Wave, The (Huntington), 121 Thomas, Brendon, 90–91 Tiananmen Square, 148 Tibet, 203 Tigris, 285 timber, 61, 139, 206, 223, 285 Timbuktu, 206 Timor-Leste, 36, 139, 144, 184, 220 aid to, 223 democracy in, 106, 122 infrastructure investment in, 216 poverty in, 122 tin, 139 Tokyo, 201, 277 totalitarianism, 10–11, 16 tourism, 45 toys, 56, 139 trade, x, 6, 17, 20, 22, 52, 156, 157, 162–63, 193, 203, 204–5, 234, 257, 303 in agriculture, 273 Asian economic miracle and, 170, 201 growth of, 157, 158–59, 160 sea-based, 200–201 shipping containers and, 167–68 trade unions, 110 transportation, 166, 261 Truth and Reconciliation Commission, 182 T-shirts, 159, 164 Tuareg, 265 tuberculosis, 75, 94, 161, 205, 214 Tull, Jethro, 25 Tunisia: democracy in, 7, 106, 124, 255, 263 growth in, 50, 238 Turkey, 36, 127, 285 aid to, 223 authoritarian rule in, 255 demand in, 53 democracy in, 106, 123, 124, 263 future of, 234 growth in, 6, 7, 22, 235, 238 protests in, 263 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 Turkmenistan, 114, 266, 285 Tutu, Desmond, 18, 103, 185 Uganda, 106, 112, 144, 159, 287 aid to, 216 and democracy, 263, 264 growth in, 50 horticulture producers in, 169 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 infrastructure investment in, 216 mobile phones in, 176–77 Ukraine, 143, 192, 233 Ultimate Resource, The (Simon), 294 unemployment benefits, 38, 164 United Fruit Company, 223 United Nations, 79, 212, 217, 258, 275, 298, 309 United Nations’ International Labour Organization, 57 United States, 19, 47, 68, 148, 231, 292, 300 China’s relationship with, 298–99 countries controlled by, 141 coups supported by, 100 democracy criticized in, 126 democracy in, 112, 296 and dictatorships, 139, 222 Iraq invasion by, 8, 118, 124, 146 leadership needed by, 234 natural capital in, 63 Panama invaded by, 144 post–World War II boom in, 262 protection provided by, 289–90 in World War II, 137 universities, 247 urbanization, 4, 22, 233, 268, 276–77, 279 US Agency for International Development (USAID), 95, 170, 171, 216, 308 Uyuni Sal Flat, 205 Uzbekistan, 8, 145, 185, 281, 285 vaccines, 77, 94, 161, 214, 233, 302 Velvet Revolution, 103 Venezuela, 22, 47, 106, 115 and democracy, 248, 263, 264 economic problems in, 255 natural capital in, 63 Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie (VOC), 136–37 Vietnam, 36, 106, 144, 289 aid to, 214, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 growth in, 7, 45, 50, 125, 128, 147, 262 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 life expectancy in, 78 rice yields in, 215–16 textiles from, 56 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Vietnam War, 100, 138, 141, 145, 289 Vincent, Jeffrey, 61 violence, 6, 20, 290 decline in, 4, 115–20, 116, 117, 119, 145–46 poverty deepened by, 119, 119 and poverty traps, 15 over resources, 284–86 Vitamin A deficiency, 173–74 Viviano, Frank, 152 Wade, Abdoulaye, 114, 224 Wałesa, Lech, 18, 103, 143, 149, 184, 186 Walls, Peter, 181 Walmart, 46 Wang Huan, 90–91 war, 5 attention to, 10 and poverty traps, 15 reduction of, 3, 4, 6 watchdog groups, 110 water, 77, 80, 161, 216, 275, 277–80, 307 water conservation, 233 water pollution, 8 water shortages, 22, 73 Watt, James, 25 Wealth and Poverty of Nations, The (Landes), 13 Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 200–201 Weber, Max, 120 West Africa, 8, 10, 22, 205 colonialism in, 140 West Bengal, 31 Western Samoa, 75, 202 What We Know (AAAS report), 281–82 “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down” (Eichengreen et al.), 236 White, Howard, 226 white supremacy, 124 “Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed?”


Who Rules the World? by Noam Chomsky

"Robert Solow", Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, corporate governance, corporate personhood, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Garrett Hardin, Howard Zinn, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, liberation theology, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, Nelson Mandela, nuclear winter, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, one-state solution, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, precariat, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Stanislav Petrov, structural adjustment programs, The Theory of the Leisure Class by Thorstein Veblen, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, trade route, Tragedy of the Commons, union organizing, uranium enrichment, wage slave, WikiLeaks, working-age population

Department of Energy reported its annual carbon dioxide emissions figures, which “jumped by the biggest amount on record,” to a level higher than the worst-case scenario anticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).14 That came as no surprise to many scientists, including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s program on climate change, which for years has warned that the IPCC’s predictions are too conservative. Such critics of the IPCC predictions receive virtually no public attention, unlike the fringe climate change denialists who are supported by the corporate sector, along with huge propaganda campaigns that have driven many Americans off the international spectrum in their dismissal of the threats of climate change.

Humanitarian Law Project Holocaust Honduras Hoodbhoy, Pervez Hoover Institution Hout, Shafiq al- Hull, Cordell humanitarian intervention human rights Human Rights Watch Hungary Huntington, Samuel P. Hussein, Saddam Husseini, Faisal Ibrahim, Youssef Ickes, Harold immigrants imperialism India Indians (Native Americans) indigenous populations Indochina Indonesia industrial revolution Industrial Workers of the World inequality Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) internal security International Court of Justice International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia International Energy Agency International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War International Security Intifada Iran coup of 1953 Iran Air Flight 655 Iran-Iraq war Iraq U.S. invasion of Ireland Iron Fist operations ISIS (Islamic State) Islamic Jihad Islamic world Israel.


pages: 330 words: 99,044

Reimagining Capitalism in a World on Fire by Rebecca Henderson

Airbnb, asset allocation, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, business climate, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, commoditize, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, crony capitalism, dark matter, decarbonisation, disruptive innovation, double entry bookkeeping, Elon Musk, Erik Brynjolfsson, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, family office, fixed income, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, greed is good, Hans Rosling, Howard Zinn, Hyman Minsky, impact investing, income inequality, independent contractor, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), joint-stock company, Kickstarter, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta-analysis, microcredit, mittelstand, Mont Pelerin Society, Nelson Mandela, passive investing, Paul Samuelson, Philip Mirowski, profit maximization, race to the bottom, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Second Machine Age, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, Steven Pinker, stocks for the long run, Tim Cook: Apple, total factor productivity, Toyota Production System, uber lyft, urban planning, Washington Consensus, WeWork, working-age population, Zipcar

WHO (World Health Organization), “Health Benefits Far Outweigh the Costs of Meeting Climate Change Goals,” www.who.int/news-room/detail/05-12-2018-health-benefits-far-outweigh-the-costs-of-meeting-climate-change-goals; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea, and L. L.White (Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014). 2. IPCC, Climate Change 2014; WWAP (UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2019: Leaving No One Behind (Paris: UNESCO, 2019), www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/half-world-face-severe-water-stress-2030-unless-water-use-decoupled. 3.

Who Stood Up to President Trump: Ken Frazier Speaks Out,” New York Times, Feb. 19, 2018, www.nytimes.com/2018/02/19/business/merck-ceo-ken-frazier-trump.html. 42. Matthew E. Kahn et al., “Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis,” NBER Working Paper no. w26167 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019). 43. IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, edited by O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel, and J. C. Minx (Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014). 44.

Appropriate regulation—something like a carbon tax or a carbon cap—would not only allow the global economy to decarbonize at minimal cost but would also open up billions of dollars in new market opportunities. Decarbonization will be expensive. But unchecked climate change will cost billions of dollars more. Current estimates suggest that climate change could cost the US economy as much as 10 percent of GDP by the end of the century and destabilize the world’s food supply.42 The IPCC estimates that keeping GHG emissions to a level that offers a 66 percent chance of not exceeding 2°C warming would cost 3 to 11 percent of world GDP by 2100.43 But leaving global warming unchecked might cost 23 to 74 percent of global per capita GDP by 2100 in lost agricultural production, health risks, flooded cities, and other major disruptions.44 Unchecked climate change will also impose irreversible harm on coming generations.


pages: 250 words: 75,151

The New Nomads: How the Migration Revolution Is Making the World a Better Place by Felix Marquardt

agricultural Revolution, Black Swan, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, British Empire, carbon footprint, coronavirus, Covid-19, COVID-19, dark matter, Donald Trump, ghettoisation, glass ceiling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Joi Ito, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, out of africa, phenotype, place-making, Ponzi scheme, pre–internet, QAnon, Ray Kurzweil, remote working, Richard Feynman, road to serfdom, Silicon Valley, Skype, Snapchat, sustainable-tourism, technoutopianism, Yogi Berra, young professional

movement 48–54, 69, 123–7, 130, 145–6 Barry, Boubakar 132–3 Barry, Ismaila 131–9, 144, 145 Beckett, Samuel 243 Bengal famine (1943) 100 Berry, Wendell: ‘The Peace of Wild Things’ 224 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 140 Black Elephant 232–9, 241 Blair, Tony 30 Blanc, Louis 159 Blueground 75–6 Bogotá, Colombia 116, 119–20 Bohr, Niels 212 Boswell, Scott 201, 202–3, 204 Breslau, Silesia 32 Brexit referendum (2016) 8, 15–16, 30, 40–1, 99, 100–1, 205, 210, 218, 238 Brilliant Minds conference (2019) 212–14, 215 Britain 14, 125 air travel in 217 Brexit referendum see Brexit referendum emigration from Britain to the EU 99, 101, 121 Empire 77, 100–1, 134 European migrants in 54–5, 128–30 football supporters in 59–63 ‘hostile environment’ policy 146, 168 private schools in 49 university sector 77–8, 108, 146 Canada 52, 72, 73, 116, 118, 128, 176–7, 178, 179 carbon emissions 16–17, 163, 198, 214, 217, 241 Carrère, Emmanuel 27 Casablanca, Charlotte de 116–20, 229 Caudill, Debbie 64 Caudill, Jeremiah 59, 63–8 Céline, Louis-Ferdinand: Journey to the End of the Night 93 Central America, emigration from 9, 10 Chang, Lulu 107–111, 115, 116, 119–20, 229 Charlie Hebdo 23, 24 Charlottesville rally, US (2017) 15 Chiang Mai, Thailand 186, 197 China 102, 140 African migrants in 130–9 emigration from 107–111, 229 entrepreneurship in 51, 52, 55, 79, 80, 83 global rankings of most-prized destinations for migrants and 76, 130–9, 145 One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative 135–6 racism and 131–2 Uighurs in 139 Chirac, Jacques 51 Ciudad del Este, Paraguay 85–6 climate change 16–17, 19, 30–1, 90, 198, 200, 228 Africa and 90, 217 air travel and 217–18 Berenice Tompkins and 218–21, 223 cities, movement out of and 223 Covid-19 and 217–18 culture, demands a new kind of 58–9 carbon footprint of average environmentally conscious privileged liberal 216–17 conservatives and 219, 222 COP21 (United Nations climate change conference) 218 COP24 (United Nations climate change conference) 218 Davos and 30–1 denial 209 digital nomad and 195, 197, 198, 200 early humans and 147 ‘global economy’ phrase and 222 Great March for Climate Action 218–21 inequality and 216–17 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 215 liberals and 15, 31, 215, 216–21 migrants/refugees, climate 19, 159, 205, 215 optimism around, unwarranted 222 Othering, climate activists and 15 People’s Pilgrimage (climate march) 218–21 solutionism and 216 ultra-mobility and 215 US and 217–21 Coates, Ta-Nehisi 113–14 Collier, Paul: Refuge 174 conservatives anywheres-somewheres divide and 41 climate change and 219, 222 Othering and 15 problems of modern world, responses to 222 US and 3, 7, 14, 202 COP21 (United Nations climate change conference) 218 COP24 (United Nations climate change conference) 218 county supremacy doctrine, US 64 Covid-19 10, 16–17, 44, 146, 161, 228, 235, 236 climate change and 217–18 digital nomad and 184, 193, 198–9, 217, 218, 225 dual citizenship and 185–6 post-Covid era 223, 228, 238 WEF/Davos and 240, 241 Cylance 28 Dar Al Islam (French-language ISIS magazine) 25 Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 76, 80–1, 84, 85, 86, 88, 122 Davis, Carl 114, 115 Deborah (Spanish migrant in UK) 128–30 Demonbreun, Taylor 195 De Pecol, Cassie 195 Dewhirst, Isaac 70–1 Diabate, Abdramane ‘Abdi’ Black Elephant and 235, 238, 241 migration to US 1–8, 12, 13–14, 21–2, 47, 59, 68, 133, 218, 224, 232–4, 235, 238, 241 World Economic Forum in Davos (2017), attends 232–4 Diabate, Mamadou 2, 5–7 Diabate, Nouweizema 6 digital nomad 167, 182, 183–200, 225 competitive travel and 189–90 coronavirus pandemic and 184, 185, 186, 193, 198–9 ‘Davos man’ and 196 dual citizenship and 185–6 ecological cost of 195, 197, 198, 200 global elite and 188, 195–6 Gonzalo Sanchez Sarmiento’s experience as 190–4, 197, 199 hyper-nomad and 188 Jobbatical and 191–2 sense of community and 197, 199 location independence and 196–7 New Nomad, as prototype for 199–200 origins of 187–8 problems with 192–4, 197, 199–200 typical jobs 186 Diop, Medinatou Mohamed 132, 133 Dorling, Danny 100 dual citizenship 185–6 Dubai 76–9, 80, 110, 162 economic migration 122–47, 196 ‘Barrez-vous!’

movement 123–7, 130, 146–7 education system/Grandes Écoles 48–9, 54, 118, 126 emigration of young people from 48–54, 55, 69, 116–20, 123–7, 130, 145–7 FM childhood in 37–42, 43 FM family first move to 37–8 gerontocratic tradition in 50, 123, 128 Gilets Jaunes movement 48–9 hip-hop in 28, 45–6, 50, 55, 113, 124, 139, 162, 233 Islamist terror attacks in 23–6 Les Trente Glorieuses (three decades of sustained growth) 124–5 London, emigration to from 54–5, 59 racism and 52 ‘republican equality of chances’ (les valeurs de la République) 20, 211 Syrian refugees in 169–75 youth unemployment/lack of opportunity within 48–54, 55, 69, 116–20, 123–7, 130, 145–7 see also individual place name French Islamic Foundation 24 Friedman, Sam 211 Fuerteventura 149 Fulbright scholarship 34–5, 136 Gates, Bill 28 Générations 88.2 (French independent radio station) 48–54 Georgia (nation) 73, 175–8 Georgia (state), US 82–3 Germany 1, 2, 17, 32–4, 37, 38, 42, 43, 47, 72, 73, 79, 100, 101, 126, 132, 138 gerontocracy (government by entitled elders) 50, 124, 127 Ghana 96, 134–5 Gilets Jaunes 48–9 globalisation 11, 51–2, 90 globalism 30, 54 Goodhart, David 40–1 Grand Tour 57, 59 Grandes Écoles 48–9, 54, 118, 126 Great March for Climate Action 218–19 Greece 18, 35, 36, 37, 43, 45, 47, 55, 57, 78, 135 Group, the (religious cult) 64 Hedges, Chris 32 Heimat (mix of home, culture, vernacular, community) 17 Hibbard, Cooper 1–2, 4, 238 Hindriks, Karoli 191 Hine, Dougald 20 hip-hop 28, 45–6, 50, 55, 113, 124, 139, 162, 233 Holiday Swap app 195 Hollande, François 126 Homo erectus 9 homosexuality 102–7 Hughes, Solomon 114–15 Hult 137 hunter-gatherers 9–10, 18, 187 Huntington, Samuel P. 195–6 Hutchinson, Robert 84–5 iEconcalc 78 Ikola, Rabbi 220 Illich, Ivan 232 immigration economic 122–47 see also economic migration education and 48–69 see also education, immigration and emigration 93–121 see also emigration entrepreneurs and 70–92 see also entrepreneurs, migration and Felix Marquardt, transformative power in life of 23–47 see also Marquardt, Felix labelling of 169–200 see also labelling, migration and nomadism and see nomadism ‘out of Africa’ migration of early humans 9, 18, 69 pushback against 201–23 see also liberals refugees and 148–68 see also refugees World Economic Forum, Davos and see World Economic Forum, Davos India 14–15, 76, 80, 83, 111, 118, 130, 155, 156 Citizenship Bill (2016) 140 entrepreneurs returning to 139–45 Youthonomics Global Index (YGI) and 139–40, 145 inequality 16, 20, 31, 49, 209, 210–11, 216, 228, 241 Ingvarsdóttir, Sigurlína 239 initiatory journey 57 ‘internal’ migrations from village to city ix, 10 International Council on Clean Transportation 217 International Herald Tribune 28, 188 international schools 41 ‘inverted totalitarianism’ 32 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 215 Iraq 10, 123, 179–80 ISIS 23, 25 Islam 4, 8, 15, 23–5, 160, 175 Israel 157–8 Italy 36, 126 Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire) 53, 98, 152, 155 Jackson, Wes 227 Japan 77, 93–9, 128, 135, 136, 156 Jews 2, 15, 27, 31, 70, 79, 100, 157–8 Jobbatical 191–2 Johnson, Boris 100, 146 Jung, Carl 212 Jungle, Calais 9 Kaba, Mbake 153–4 Kansas Wesleyan University 206 Kati, Mali 2, 5, 6 Kawaakibi1 Foundation 24–6 Kazakh government 177 Kierkegaard, Søren 212 King, Steve 199 Kobalia, Anastasia 177–8 Kobalia, Vera 175–9, 182 Koum, Jan 71 Kundera, Milan 45 Kurzweil, Ray 181 labelling, migration and 168, 169–82 Amr Maskoun/labelling of refugees 169–73 immigration and emigration, distinction between 174–5 ‘migrant’ and ‘refugee’, conflation of terms 174–5 Mustafa Al Sarajj/labelling of refugees 179–82 refugee, usefulness of term 174 Vera Kobalia/labelling of refugees 175–9 La Croix-Valmer, France 42 Larsson, Sven 179, 180, 181 Latour, Bruno: Où atterrir?

In 2018 alone there were 17.2 million displacements caused by natural disasters and around 764,000 caused by droughts.4 Climate change is going to cause more natural disasters, and more droughts. For lots of people around the world, a push factor spurring them to migrate is already the climate. In the coming years, there are going to be more and more. The latest projections of the climate experts of the IPCC are that we may be looking at temperatures of up to six to seven degrees Celsius above preindustrial averages by 2100.5 This would make half the planet uninhabitable. It may sound far away. It isn’t. A considerable number of humans already born will be around. The problem isn’t that liberal values, the value of human connection and open-mindedness, aren’t part of the worldview of our Brilliant Minds.


The Economics Anti-Textbook: A Critical Thinker's Guide to Microeconomics by Rod Hill, Anthony Myatt

American ideology, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, bank run, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, business cycle, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, different worldview, endogenous growth, equal pay for equal work, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, failed state, financial innovation, full employment, gender pay gap, Gini coefficient, Gunnar Myrdal, happiness index / gross national happiness, Home mortgage interest deduction, Howard Zinn, income inequality, indoor plumbing, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, liberal capitalism, low skilled workers, market bubble, market clearing, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, medical malpractice, minimum wage unemployment, moral hazard, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, Peter Singer: altruism, positional goods, prediction markets, price discrimination, principal–agent problem, profit maximization, profit motive, publication bias, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Ralph Nader, random walk, rent control, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, The Myth of the Rational Market, the payments system, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, ultimatum game, union organizing, working-age population, World Values Survey, Yogi Berra

Their strategy is to create an impression of controversy over the science, the same strategy that was 155 7  |  Externalities … people around the world are already suffering from past emissions, and current emissions will have potentially catastrophic impacts in the future … The scientific evidence on the potential risks is now overwhelming, as demonstrated in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. (2008: 1–2) used successfully for so long by the tobacco industry and its public relations advisers, as we saw in Chapter 5.4 As a consultant to the US Republican Party wrote in 2002, ‘Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly.

Commodity fetishism, fair trade, and the environment’, Organization and Environment, 16(4): 413–30. Hunt, E. K. and H. J. Sherman (2008) Economics: An introduction to traditional and radical views, 7th edn, New York: M. E. Sharpe. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, available at www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4–wg1.htm. International Agency for Research on Cancer (2005) Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, vols 1–8 (updated) and vol. 9, Lyons: International Agency for Research on Cancer, available at wwwdep.iarc.fr/.

., 139 lobbyists, 109, 111 long-run costs, 104–5 Lunn, Pete, 25, 243 301 Index imperfect information see information, imperfect import protection, 219–24; quotas, 221 inaction, collective, 112–13 incentives, 9, 14, 129, 186, 203; backfiring of, 24; bad, 193 indeterminate and unstable economy, 72 India, influenza epidemic, 39 individual: focus on, 42; versus community, 17–18; versus corporation, 18–20 inefficiency, 13, 27, 51, 244 inequality, 205, 249; economic, 203–4; effect on efficiency, 20–1; of income, 90, 198–200; of wages, 227; of wealth, 200–1; pervasive costs of, 213–17 infant formula, marketing of, 82–3 infant industries policy, 222 information, 167, 233–4; about job risks, 162; asymmetric and imperfect, 1, 5, 7, 12, 22, 55, 67, 69–70, 78, 83–7, 114, 115, 142, 161, 166, 224, 231, 250 (importance of, 256–7); complete, 232; lack of, 174; perfect, 6, 54, 57, 78, 92, 120, 160, 169 (and costless, 5) information economics, 106 innovation, 132, 134, 135, 248 inspection-goods, 141, 142, 144, 250 Intel, 133 intellectual property rights, 235, 237 interest rates, 258, 259 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 155 International Labour Organization (ILO), 160, 161 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 235 International Telephone and Telegraph corporation, 240 invisible hand, 6, 13, 17, 22, 64, 86, 154, 250 Iran, coup d’état in, 240 malnutrition, of children, 201 management compensation see executive compensation Mankiw, N.


pages: 432 words: 124,635

Happy City: Transforming Our Lives Through Urban Design by Charles Montgomery

2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, agricultural Revolution, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon footprint, centre right, City Beautiful movement, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, East Village, edge city, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, experimental subject, Frank Gehry, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, hedonic treadmill, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, license plate recognition, McMansion, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, New Urbanism, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, science of happiness, Seaside, Florida, Silicon Valley, starchitect, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transit-oriented development, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban sprawl, wage slave, white flight, World Values Survey, zero-sum game, Zipcar

These highways: Todd Litman, Generated Traffic and Induced Travel Implications for Transport Planning (Victoria, BC: Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2010); interview with Howard Frumkin of the Centers for Disease Control in the Web series American Makeover, episode 1, “Sprawlanta,” www.americanmakeover.tv/episode1.html (accessed February 2, 2011). United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: core writing team, R. K. Pachauri, and A. Reisinger, eds., Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008). The travel time: Green, Charles, Health Plenary Address, Congress for New Urbanism 18, Atlanta, May 20, 2010. This we know: Thomas, C., et al., “Extinction Risk from Climate Change,” Nature, 2004: 145–48.

On this point there is agreement from every peer-reviewed journal on the subject, and from the national scientific academies of Canada, China, Brazil, India, Russia, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, Mexico, the United Kingdom, the United States, and dozens of other countries,† as well as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which synthesizes the work of the biggest group of scientists ever to focus on a single issue. Which is to say that to the very best of human knowledge, we are blowing so much methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide into the air that we are throwing the delicate system governing climate and weather out of whack.

*The travel time in Atlanta grew faster in the 1990s than in any other American city. The average person’s time spent in Atlanta traffic rose from six hours a year to thirty-four hours between 1990 and 2000 alone. †A survey of just a few of the national scientific institutions that support the IPCC’s findings on climate change: Academia Brasileira de Ciências, the Royal Society of Canada, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Académie des Sciences, Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina, the Indian National Science Academy, Accademia dei Lincei, the Science Council of Japan, the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Royal Society of the United Kingdom, and the National Academy of Sciences (from “Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change,” Washington, DC: The National Academies, 2005), as well as the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the governments of all G8 nations.


The Smart Wife: Why Siri, Alexa, and Other Smart Home Devices Need a Feminist Reboot by Yolande Strengers, Jenny Kennedy

"side hustle", active measures, autonomous vehicles, cloud computing, computer vision, crowdsourcing, cyber-physical system, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, feminist movement, game design, gender pay gap, Grace Hopper, hive mind, Ian Bogost, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, John Markoff, Kitchen Debate, knowledge economy, Milgram experiment, Minecraft, natural language processing, Network effects, new economy, pattern recognition, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, self-driving car, Shoshana Zuboff, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, smart meter, social intelligence, Steve Jobs, surveillance capitalism, technoutopianism, Turing test, Wall-E, women in the workforce

MacKay, Radical Transformation. 46. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Global Warming of 1.5°C: An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty (Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018), https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/; Gerardo Ceballos, Paul R.

Data centers, the “factories of the digital age,” deliver and maintain much of the convenience proffered by smart wives by providing connectability, operability, “always-on” services, software updates, and livestream footage.104 Brad Smith, president of Microsoft, notes that these seemingly innocuous players will rank among the largest users of electric power on the planet by the middle of the next decade.105 Data centers consumed 1.7 percent of global electricity use in 2012, thus emitting roughly the same carbon dioxide emissions as the airline industry.106 Looking forward, global estimates of data center demand in 2030 anticipate an increase of three to ten times the current levels.107 (Also, 2030 is the year that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has provided as its early estimate for the earth reaching the dangerous 1.5 degrees of warming if we continue on our current trajectory.)108 Since 2014, Greenpeace has monitored the energy performance of the IT sector, and encouraged big players like Amazon to disclose their energy footprints and transition to renewable energy.109 The leaders in this transition are Facebook, Apple, and Google, which were the first to make 100 percent renewable commitments in 2013; they have since been joined by nearly twenty internet companies.

,” Yale Environment 360, April 3, 2018, https://e360.yale.edu/features/energy-hogs-can-huge-data-centers-be-made-more-efficient. 107. Anders S. G. Andrae and Tomas Edler, “On Global Electricity Usage of Communication Technology: Trends to 2030,” Challenges 6, no. 1 (June 2015): 117–157. 108. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Summary for Policymakers,” in Global Warming of 1.5°C. 109. Greenpeace, Clicking Clean. 110. Google and Apple both scored As. Greenpeace, Clicking Clean, 124. 111. Greenpeace, Clicking Clean, 124. 112. International Energy Agency, Digitalisation and Energy, Technology Report, November 2017, https://www.iea.org/reports/digitalisation-and-energy. 113.


Sustainable Minimalism: Embrace Zero Waste, Build Sustainability Habits That Last, and Become a Minimalist Without Sacrificing the Planet (Green Housecleaning, Zero Waste Living) by Stephanie Marie Seferian

8-hour work day, Airbnb, big-box store, carbon footprint, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, coronavirus, Covid-19, COVID-19, crowdsourcing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Mason jar, mass immigration, ride hailing / ride sharing

You can calculate your unique carbon footprint at www.nature.org. The average carbon footprint for a person living in the United States is a whopping 16 metric tons, one of the highest rates in the world.105 The worldwide per person average is closer to 4 tons.106 Yet the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that it is imperative to prevent a warming of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (about 34.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050.107 To achieve this, every human on earth must reduce their carbon footprints to just 2 metric tons per year. While lifestyle habits within the home—including what you eat and how many children you choose to have—increase or decrease your unique carbon footprint, intentional choices outside the home can substantially reduce your impact.

“Calculate Your Carbon Footprint.” Accessed October 2020. https://www.nature.org/en-us/get-involved/how-to-help/carbon-footprint-calculator/#:~:text=Globally%2C%20the%20average%20is%20closer,under%202%20tons%20by%202050. 107 Global Warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius. (Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018), https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/. 108 “Public Transportation Is 10 Times Safer, Analysis Shows,” Safety and Health Magazine, December 27, 2018, https://www.safetyandhealthmagazine.com/articles/17905-public-transportation-is-10-times-safer-for-commuters-analysis-shows. 109 Livia Albeck-Ripka, “How to Reduce your Carbon Footprint,” The New York Times, accessed 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/guides/year-of-living-better/how-to-reduce-your-carbon-footprint. 110 Taylor Mabrey, “Reducing the Carbon Footprint?


pages: 286 words: 87,168

Less Is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World by Jason Hickel

air freight, Airbnb, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, cognitive dissonance, coronavirus, corporate governance, corporate personhood, COVID-19, David Graeber, decarbonisation, declining real wages, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, disinformation, Elon Musk, energy transition, Fellow of the Royal Society, Fractional reserve banking, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, gender pay gap, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, land reform, liberal capitalism, longitudinal study, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, McMansion, means of production, meta-analysis, microbiome, Money creation, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Naomi Klein, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, passive income, planetary scale, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Post-Keynesian economics, quantitative easing, rent control, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, Scramble for Africa, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, Simon Kuznets, structural adjustment programs, the scientific method, The Spirit Level, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, universal basic income

In some cases it will be worse: Indian wheat and US corn could plummet by as much as 60%.23 Under normal circumstances, regional food shortages can be covered by surpluses from elsewhere on the planet. But climate breakdown could trigger shortages on multiple continents at once. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming more than 2 degrees is likely to cause ‘sustained food supply disruptions globally’. As one of the lead authors of the report put it: ‘The potential risk of multi-breadbasket failure is increasing.’ Add this to soil depletion, pollinator die-off and fishery collapse, and we’re looking at spiralling food emergencies.

It held out the tantalising possibility of meeting our climate goals while keeping capitalism intact, and while allowing rich nations, who wield so much power in the climate negotiations, to maintain their high levels of consumption. It was incredibly alluring – a kind of get-out-of-jail-free card – and it offered real hope to green growth optimists. A few years after Obersteiner’s paper was published the IPCC started including BECCS in its official models, even though there was still no evidence of its feasibility. And in 2014 the idea took centre stage: BECCS appeared in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), not only as a side show, but as the dominant assumption in no fewer than 101 of the 116 scenarios for staying under 2°C. AR5 is the blueprint that the Paris Agreement relies on. Governments are using the AR5 scenarios as a guide when it comes to deciding how quickly to reduce their emissions.

In other words, even with the Paris Agreement in place, we’re on track for catastrophe. What’s going on here? How is it possible that emissions will keep rising even under a plan that’s meant to cut them? And why does nobody seem to be worried about this? There’s a backstory. In the early 2000s, IPCC modellers realised that the emissions reductions required to keep climate change under control were so steep that they were likely to be incompatible with continued economic growth. Growing the global economy means growing energy demand, and growing energy demand makes the task of transitioning to clean energy significantly more difficult.


pages: 371 words: 109,320

News and How to Use It: What to Believe in a Fake News World by Alan Rusbridger

airport security, basic income, Boris Johnson, call centre, Chelsea Manning, citizen journalism, Climategate, cognitive dissonance, coronavirus, correlation does not imply causation, Covid-19, COVID-19, Credit Default Swap, cross-subsidies, crowdsourcing, disinformation, Dominic Cummings, Donald Trump, Edward Snowden, Filter Bubble, future of journalism, ghettoisation, global pandemic, Google Earth, hive mind, housing crisis, Howard Rheingold, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jeff Bezos, Jeffrey Epstein, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, Mark Zuckerberg, Murray Gell-Mann, Narrative Science, Neil Kinnock, Nelson Mandela, New Journalism, Nicholas Carr, offshore financial centre, profit motive, publication bias, Seymour Hersh, Snapchat, Steve Bannon, the scientific method, universal basic income, WikiLeaks, yellow journalism

In 2018, the BBC overhauled its climate-change reporting by releasing an internal editorial policy and position on climate change to staff, as well as requiring all BBC reporters to attend a training course on the new material. The statement began with a mea culpa – ‘we get coverage of [climate change] wrong too often’ – and affirmed that the BBC accepts the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) position that climate change is happening and is caused by humans. It warned journalists against the ‘false balance’ provided by including a climate denier in reports on climate change. It also set out the BBC’s Greener Broadcasting strategy, including that it uses its platform to ‘ensure that we . . . are informing and educating the public, allowing them to make informed choices about their own behaviours around sustainable living’.

Such ideas caused enough consternation for the Health and Safety Executive to issue refutations of several of his claims. He was also a passionate denier of man-made climate change (SEE: CLIMATE CHANGE). ‘Needless to say, he was widely rebuked by the scientific community and he was sued by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change over accusations he made about its chairman. Booker was only encouraged by such skirmishes. If he was getting under their skin that much, he was convinced he must be doing something right. His campaigning was consistent and his message, unlike the climate, never changed . . . His writings in the Daily Telegraph on the European Union exasperated the paper’s editor Max Hastings, who wrote in his memoir that “Booker’s fanatical hostility to Europe increasingly distorted his journalism.”’

<https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity-life/looking-through-a-royal-lens-with-arthur-edwards/news-story/7e20cc778f384f5ff001ca6de5b7191d#.vln70> Silverman, Craig. Regret the Error: How Media Mistakes Pollute the Press and Imperil Free Speech. New York: Union Square Press, 2007. Small, Mike. ‘IPCC Report: British Press Focus on Snog over Smog as Scientists Warn of Climate Crisis’. DeSmog UK, 9 October 2018. <https://www.desmog.co.uk/2018/10/09/comment-media-responses-ipcc-are-part-problem> Smith, Anthony. The Politics of Information: Problems of Policy in Modern Media. London: Macmillan, 1978. Smith, Ben. ‘How We Characterized Michael Cohen’s Testimony’. BuzzFeed News, 18 April 2019.


pages: 362 words: 104,308

Forty Signs of Rain by Kim Stanley Robinson

bioinformatics, business intelligence, double helix, experimental subject, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kim Stanley Robinson, phenotype, prisoner's dilemma, Ronald Reagan, social intelligence, stem cell, the scientific method, zero-sum game

“Oh hi Roy, what’s up.” “Well I’ve got your latest draft here and I’m about to read it, and I thought I’d check first to see what I should be looking for, how you solved the IPCC stuff.” “Oh yeah. The new stuff that matters is all in the third section.” The bill as Charlie had drafted it for Phil would require the U.S. to act on certain recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “Did you kind of bury the part about us conforming to IPCC findings?” “I don’t think there’s earth deep enough to bury that one. I tried to put it in a context that made it look inevitable. International body that we are part of, climate change clearly real, the UN the best body to work through global issues, support for them pretty much mandatory for us or else the whole world cooks in our juices, that sort of thing.”

Now the President said, “That’s nice, Charles, let’s get to it then, shall we? I heard from Dr. S. here about the meeting this morning, and I wanted to check in on it in person, because I like Phil Chase. And I understand that Phil now wants us to join in with the actions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to the point of introducing a bill mandating our participation in whatever action they recommend, no matter what it is. And this is a UN panel.” “Well,” Charlie said, shifting gears into ultradiplomatic mode, not just for the President but for the absent Phil, who was going to be upset with him no matter what he said, since only Phil should actually be talking to the President about this stuff.

“I certainly hope so.” “Sure sure. Okay, I’ll read this draft and get back to you ASAP. I want to move on with this, and the committee discussion is now scheduled for Tuesday.” “That’s fine, I’ll have my phone with me all day.” “Sounds good, I’ll be in touch, but meanwhile be thinking about how to slip the IPCC thing in even deeper.” “Yeah okay but see what I did already.” “Sure bye.” “Bye.” Charlie pulled off the headset and turned off the stove. Joe finished his bottle, inspected it, tossed it casually aside. “Man, you are fast,” Charlie said as he always did. One of the mutual satisfactions of their days together was doing the same things over and over again, and saying the same things about them.


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Why the West Rules--For Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future by Ian Morris

addicted to oil, Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Arthur Eddington, Atahualpa, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Columbian Exchange, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, defense in depth, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of the americas, Doomsday Clock, en.wikipedia.org, falling living standards, Flynn Effect, Francisco Pizarro, global village, God and Mammon, hiring and firing, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Kickstarter, Kitchen Debate, knowledge economy, market bubble, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, out of africa, Peter Thiel, phenotype, pink-collar, place-making, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Scientific racism, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, Sinatra Doctrine, South China Sea, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade route, upwardly mobile, wage slave, washing machines reduced drudgery

Temperatures have risen 1°F since 1850, with most of the increase coming in the last thirty years; and the mercury in the thermometer just keeps rising. In the past, higher temperatures often meant better agricultural yields and rising development (as in the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods), but this time may be different. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested in 2007 that “Altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, together with sea level rise, are expected to have mostly adverse effects on natural and human systems … warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible.” And that may be putting it mildly; the small print in their report is even more alarming.

“Africa and the Globalization Process: Western Africa, 1450–1850.” Journal of Global History 2 (2007), pp. 63–86. Institute for International Strategic Studies. The Military Balance 2009. London: Institute for International Strategic Studies, 2009. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007. http://www/ipcc.ch/. International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Update, July 8, 2009 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/02). Iriye, Akira. The Origins of the Second World War in Asia and the Pacific. London: Longman, 1987.

., 585 Treatise on Agriculture (Wang Zhen), 379, 420n Tripitaka (“Three Baskets” of Buddhist canon), 256 Trobriand Islands, 133, 137 Troy, 199, 241 True Levellers, 452 Tunisia, 315, 364 Turkana Boy, 45, 52, 57 Turkey, 81, 97, 197n, 431, 443–46, 452, 453, 459–61, 528, 605n archaeological sites in, 96, 100, 102–103, 105, 123–25 modernization of, 571 Turkic peoples, 348, 349, 354–56, 358, 361, 364, 366–67, 372, 567; Ottoman, see Ottomans Turkmenistan, 125, 189 2001: A Space Odyssey (Clarke), 63, 149, 182, 183 Ugarit (Syria), 216, 217, 220, 225 Ukraine, 196, 295, 458 Uluburun (Anatolia), 200 ’Umar, 351 Undefeated Sun, 323 United Arab Emirates, 605n United Monarchy, 234 United Nations, 150, 610 Food and Agriculture Organization, 601 Human Development Index, 145–47, 149–50 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 599 United States, 31, 35, 158, 488, 531, 601n, 604, 605, 612, 634 carbon emissions of, 18, 538, 609 China and, 518, 546–47, 585–88, 606 diseases in, 603 economy of, 12, 34, 225, 529–31, 535, 540–41, 542, 553, 578, 582, 588, 597, 598, 615 emigration to, 509, 603 impact of climate change in, 600 industrialization in, 510, 521 Japan and, 10, 534 military spending in, 548, 631 neo-evolutionary theory in, 138–39 nuclear weapons and, 605–606, 608, 616 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on, 551 Soviet Union and, 526, 527, 533–35, 540–42, 550, 580, 616 technology in, 542, 594, 597, 615 in Vietnam War, 535 in World War I, 529 in World War II, 52, 532, 533, 579 Universal History (Polybius), 263–64 Ur (Mesopotamia), 193–94 Royal Cemetery of, 188–89 Urartu, 248 Urban II, Pope, 372 Uruk (Mesopotamia), 181–88, 190, 192, 194, 203, 206, 207, 210, 223, 229, 562, 610 Uzbekistan, 59, 366, 606n Vagnari (Italy), 273 Valencia, 438 Valens, Emperor, 312, 313 Valerian, Emperor, 310, 328 Vandals, 313, 315, 316, 345 Vedas, 137 Venice, 371, 373, 384, 392, 402, 404, 420n, 427, 429, 431–32, 459 Venter, Craig, 595, 596 Verne, Jules, 507, 511 Vespasian, Emperor, 286 Viagra, 594 Victoria, Queen of England, 6, 7, 10–11, 14, 148 Vienna, Congress of, 489 Vietnam, 11, 127, 407, 408, 587 Vietnam War, 106, 140, 141, 502n, 535 Vikings, 363, 364, 371, 421, 427 Vinland, 371 Virgil, 286 Voltaire, 13, 280, 472–74, 481 von Däniken, Erich, 182–83, 186, 189, 194, 215, 253, 399, 410, 614n Voyage on the Red Sea, The, 273, 275 Wagner, Lindsay, 594 Wales, 472n Wal-Mart, 553 Wang Anshi, 376, 421 Wang Feng, 18 Wang Mang, Emperor, 299 Wang Qirong, 210–11 Wang Yangming, 426, 453, 473n Wang Zhen, 379–80, 420n Wanli, Emperor, 442–43 War and Peace (Tolstoy), 113 Wardi, al-, 398 War of the East, 524, 532 Warring States period, 244n, 264 War of the West, 486–89, 524, 526, 532, 534, 550 Waterloo, battle of, 486 Watt, James, 494–97, 500, 502, 504, 567, 568, 573 Wayne, John, 18 Wealth and Poverty of Nations, The (Landes), 17 weapons, 151, 180, 185, 197, 217, 295, 389 in China, 305, 374, 380 nuclear, see nuclear weapons high-tech, 548, 591–92, 615–16, 618 iron and bronze, 128–29, 181, 191, 200, 208, 233–34, 276 of mass destruction, 605 prehistoric, 57, 80 siege, 277 in World War I, 526; see also guns Weber, Max, 136–37 Wedgwood, Josiah, 498 Wei (China), 265, 266, 335n Weiss, Harvey, 192 Wellington, Duke of, 486 Wendi, Emperor, 337, 345, 346, 354 West Germany, 533, 535 Wheeler, Brigadier Mortimer, 274–75 White, Leslie, 148 Whitney, Eli, 496 Wilhelm II, Kaiser, 524, 525 Wilkinson, John (“Iron-Mad”), 495 William I (“the Conqueror”), King, 194 William of Orange, 20 Wire, The (television show), 442 Woods, Tiger, 594 Wordsworth, William, 491–92 World Bank, 547, 603 World Health Organization, 603–604 World Trade Organization, 610 World War I, 65, 133, 526–29, 531, 533, 605 World War II, 17, 52, 254, 273–75, 526, 531–34, 565, 578, 579, 608 Wozniak, Steve, 542 Wright brothers, 510 Wu (China), 245, 524 Wu, King, 229–31 Wudi, Emperor (Han dynasty), 285, 294, 457 Wudi, Emperor (Liang dynasty), 329 Wuding, King, 212–15, 220, 221 Wu Zetian, 340–42, 344, 345, 355, 363n Wuzong, Emperor, 375 Xia dynasty, 205–209, 214, 235, 245 Xian, Marquis, 251 Xianbei, 335–36 Xiandi, Emperor, 302–304 Xianfeng, Emperor, 10 Xiangyang (China), 392 Xiaowen, Emperor, 336, 338, 362 Xiongnu, 293–95, 298, 299, 301, 303–305, 310, 314, 349, 354 Xishan (China), 124 Xishuipo (China), 126 Xuan, King, 242 Xuan, Marquis, 251 Xuanzong, Emperor, 355–57, 359 Xuchang (China), 79 Xu Fu, 421n Xunzi, 259 Yahgan people, 139 Yale University, 30, 192 Yan (China), 265n Yang, Prince, 221 Yang Guifei, 355–56, 424 Yangzhou (China), 442 Yanshi (China), 209 Yan Wenming, 120, 121 Yellow Turbans, 302 Yemen, 349 Yesugei, 388 Yih, King, 233 Yom Kippur/Ramadan conflict, 90 Yongle, Emperor, 406, 407, 413, 414, 416, 426, 429 You, King, 242–43, 355 Younger Dryas, 92–94, 96, 100, 114, 119, 122, 175, 577–78 Yu, King, 204–208, 214 Yuan dynasty, 587 Yuan Shikai, 528 Yue (China), 524 Yu Hong, 342 Yukichi, Fukuzawa, 15 Zemeckis, Robert, 572 Zeno, Emperor, 316–17 Zenobia, Queen, 311 Zhang Zhuzheng, 442–43 Zhao, King, 232 Zhao (China), 265, 266, 279 Zhaodun, 252–53 Zheng, King, 266–67 Zheng (China), 244 Zhengde, Emperor, 441 Zheng He, 16, 17, 407, 408, 413, 417, 420n, 426, 429, 433, 589 Zhengtong, Emperor, 413, 416, 417 Zhengzhou (China), 209–10, 212 Zhou, Duke of, 230, 257 Zhou, Madame, 424, 426 Zhou dynasty, 214, 221–22, 229–37, 242–45, 250–51, 253, 257, 278, 285, 355, 359n, 369 Zhoukoudian (China), 51–55, 57, 60, 72, 78, 154, 210n, 211 Zhou Man, 408, 410, 413 Zhuangzi, 257–59 Zhu Xi, 422–24, 426, 453 Zhu Yuanzhang, 404–405 Zoroaster, 254n Zoroastrianism, 328, 342 Zuozhuan (commentary on historical documents), 252–53 *Some people think Chinese sailors even reached the Americas in the fifteenth century, but, as I will try to show in Chapter 8, these claims are probably fanciful.


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