GPT-4

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The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-First Century's Greatest Dilemma by Mustafa Suleyman

"World Economic Forum" Davos, 23andMe, 3D printing, active measures, Ada Lovelace, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, AI winter, air gap, Airbnb, Alan Greenspan, algorithmic bias, Alignment Problem, AlphaGo, Alvin Toffler, Amazon Web Services, Anthropocene, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, ASML, autonomous vehicles, backpropagation, barriers to entry, basic income, benefit corporation, Big Tech, biodiversity loss, bioinformatics, Bletchley Park, Blitzscaling, Boston Dynamics, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, ChatGPT, choice architecture, circular economy, classic study, clean tech, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, coronavirus, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, COVID-19, creative destruction, CRISPR, critical race theory, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, cuban missile crisis, data science, decarbonisation, deep learning, deepfake, DeepMind, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Demis Hassabis, disinformation, drone strike, drop ship, dual-use technology, Easter island, Edward Snowden, effective altruism, energy transition, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ernest Rutherford, Extinction Rebellion, facts on the ground, failed state, Fairchild Semiconductor, fear of failure, flying shuttle, Ford Model T, future of work, general purpose technology, Geoffrey Hinton, global pandemic, GPT-3, GPT-4, hallucination problem, hive mind, hype cycle, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of the wheel, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, John von Neumann, Joi Ito, Joseph Schumpeter, Kickstarter, lab leak, large language model, Law of Accelerating Returns, Lewis Mumford, license plate recognition, lockdown, machine readable, Marc Andreessen, meta-analysis, microcredit, move 37, Mustafa Suleyman, mutually assured destruction, new economy, Nick Bostrom, Nikolai Kondratiev, off grid, OpenAI, paperclip maximiser, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, plutocrats, precautionary principle, profit motive, prompt engineering, QAnon, quantum entanglement, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, Recombinant DNA, Richard Feynman, Robert Gordon, Ronald Reagan, Sam Altman, Sand Hill Road, satellite internet, Silicon Valley, smart cities, South China Sea, space junk, SpaceX Starlink, stealth mode startup, stem cell, Stephen Fry, Steven Levy, strong AI, synthetic biology, tacit knowledge, tail risk, techlash, techno-determinism, technoutopianism, Ted Kaczynski, the long tail, The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Thomas Malthus, TikTok, TSMC, Turing test, Tyler Cowen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, uranium enrichment, warehouse robotics, William MacAskill, working-age population, world market for maybe five computers, zero day

GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT eminent professor of complexity Melanie Mitchell See Melanie Mitchell, Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans (London: Pelican Books, 2020), and Steven Strogatz, “Melanie Mitchell Takes AI Research Back to Its Roots,” Quanta Magazine, April 19, 2021, www.quantamagazine.org/​melanie-mitchell-takes-ai-research-back-to-its-roots-20210419. GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT I think it will be done The Alignment Research Center has already tested GPT-4 for precisely this kind of capability. GPT-4 was, at this stage, “ineffective” at acting autonomously, the research found. “GPT-4 System Card,” OpenAI, March 14, 2023, cdn.openai.com/​papers/​gpt-4-system-card.pdf. Within days of launch people were getting surprisingly close; see, for example, mobile.twitter.com/​jacksonfall/​status/​1636107218859745286. The version of the test here, though, requires far more autonomy than displayed there.

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., “A Generalist Agent,” DeepMind, Nov. 10, 2022, www.deepmind.com/​publications/​a-generalist-agent. GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT Internal research on GPT-4 @GPT-4 Technical Report, OpenAI, March 14, 2023, cdn.openai.com/​papers/​gpt-4.pdf. See mobile.twitter.com/​michalkosinski/​status/​1636683810631974912 for one of the early experiments. GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT Early research even claimed Sébastien Bubeck et al., “Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early Experiments with GPT-4,” arXiv, March 27, 2023, arxiv.org/​abs/​2303.12712. GO TO NOTE REFERENCE IN TEXT AIs are already finding ways Alhussein Fawzi et al., “Discovering Novel Algorithms with AlphaTensor,” DeepMind, Oct. 5, 2022, www.deepmind.com/​blog/​discovering-novel-algorithms-with-alphatensor.

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With a whopping 175 billion parameters it was, at the time, the largest neural network ever constructed, more than a hundred times larger than its predecessor of just a year earlier. Impressive, yes, but that scale is now routine, and the cost of training an equivalent model has fallen tenfold over the last two years. When GPT-4 launched in March 2023, results were again impressive. As with its predecessors, you can ask GPT-4 to compose poetry in the style of Emily Dickinson and it obliges; ask it to pick up from a random snippet of The Lord of the Rings and you are suddenly reading a plausible imitation of Tolkien; request start-up business plans and the output is akin to having a roomful of executives on call.

Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson

4chan, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, AltaVista, Apollo 11, Apple II, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, artificial general intelligence, autism spectrum disorder, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Big Tech, blockchain, Boston Dynamics, Burning Man, carbon footprint, ChatGPT, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Clayton Christensen, clean tech, Colonization of Mars, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, coronavirus, COVID-19, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, deep learning, DeepMind, Demis Hassabis, disinformation, Dogecoin, Donald Trump, Douglas Engelbart, drone strike, effective altruism, Elon Musk, estate planning, fail fast, fake news, game design, gigafactory, GPT-4, high-speed rail, hiring and firing, hive mind, Hyperloop, impulse control, industrial robot, information security, Jeff Bezos, Jeffrey Epstein, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Jony Ive, Kwajalein Atoll, lab leak, large language model, Larry Ellison, lockdown, low earth orbit, Marc Andreessen, Marc Benioff, Mars Society, Max Levchin, Michael Shellenberger, multiplanetary species, Neil Armstrong, Network effects, OpenAI, packet switching, Parler "social media", paypal mafia, peer-to-peer, Peter Thiel, QAnon, Ray Kurzweil, reality distortion field, remote working, rent control, risk tolerance, Rubik’s Cube, Salesforce, Sam Altman, Sam Bankman-Fried, San Francisco homelessness, Sand Hill Road, Saturday Night Live, self-driving car, seminal paper, short selling, Silicon Valley, Skype, SpaceX Starlink, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Jurvetson, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Streisand effect, supply-chain management, tech bro, TED Talk, Tesla Model S, the payments system, Tim Cook: Apple, universal basic income, Vernor Vinge, vertical integration, Virgin Galactic, wikimedia commons, William MacAskill, work culture , Y Combinator

Instead, they were back in three months. Altman, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and others came to dinner at his house to show him a new version, called GPT-4, and Gates bombarded it with biology questions. “It was mind-blowing,” Gates says. He then asked what it would say to a father with a sick child. “It gave this very careful excellent answer that was perhaps better than any of us in the room might have given.” In March 2023, OpenAI released GPT-4 to the public. Google then released a rival chatbot named Bard. The stage was thus set for a competition between OpenAI-Microsoft and DeepMind-Google to create products that could chat with humans in a natural way and perform an endless array of text-based intellectual tasks.

Being You: A New Science of Consciousness by Anil Seth

AlphaGo, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, backpropagation, carbon-based life, Claude Shannon: information theory, computer age, computer vision, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, coronavirus, correlation does not imply causation, CRISPR, cryptocurrency, deep learning, deepfake, DeepMind, Drosophila, en.wikipedia.org, Filter Bubble, GPT-3, GPT-4, John Markoff, longitudinal study, Louis Pasteur, mirror neurons, Neil Armstrong, Nick Bostrom, Norbert Wiener, OpenAI, paperclip maximiser, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, Pierre-Simon Laplace, planetary scale, Plato's cave, precautionary principle, Ray Kurzweil, self-driving car, speech recognition, stem cell, systems thinking, technological singularity, TED Talk, telepresence, the scientific method, theory of mind, Thomas Bayes, TikTok, Turing test

In one example, published in the Guardian, it delivered a five-hundred-word essay about why humans should not be afraid of AI – ranging across topics from the psychology of human violence to the industrial revolution, and including the disconcerting line: ‘AI should not waste time trying to understand the viewpoints of people who distrust artificial intelligence for a living.’ Despite its sophistication, I am pretty sure that GPT-3 can still be caught out by any reasonably sophisticated human interlocutor. This may not be true for GPT-4, or GPT-10. But even if a future GPT-like system repeatedly aces the Turing test, it would be exhibiting only a very narrow form of (simulated) intelligence – disembodied linguistic exchange – rather than the fully embodied ‘doing the right thing at the right time’ natural intelligence that we see in humans and in many other animals – as well as in my hypothetical silicon beast machine.