overconfidence effect

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Time Paradox by Philip G. Zimbardo, John Boyd

Albert Einstein, behavioural economics, cognitive dissonance, Drosophila, endowment effect, heat death of the universe, hedonic treadmill, impulse control, indoor plumbing, loss aversion, mental accounting, meta-analysis, Monty Hall problem, Necker cube, overconfidence effect, Ronald Reagan, science of happiness, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, twin studies

., “The Illusion of Control Among Depressed Patients,” Journal of Abnormal Psychology 88: 454–57 (1979). 49. L. B. Alloy and L. Y. Abramson, “Judgment of Contingency in Depressed and Nondepressed Students: Sadder but Wiser?” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 108: 441–85 (1979). For a contrary view, see D. Dunning and A. L. Story, “Depression, Realism and the Overconfidence Effect: Are the Sadder Wiser When Predicting Future Actions and Events?” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 61: 521–32 (1991); and R. M. Msetfi et al., “Depressive Realism and Outcome Density Bias in Contingency Judgments: The Effect of the Context and Intertrial Interval,” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 134: 10–22 (2005). 50.

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Miller, “Trends and Debates in Cognitive Psychology,” Cognition 10: 215–25 (1981). 25. D. T. Gilbert and T. D. Wilson, “Miswanting: Some Problems in the Forecasting of Future Affective States,” in Feeling and Thinking: The Role of Affect in Social Cognition, ed. J. Forgas (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000), 178–97. 26. D. Dunning et al., “The Overconfidence Effect in Social Prediction,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 58: 568–81 (1990); and R. Vallone et al., “Overconfident Predictions of Future Actions and Outcomes by Self and Others,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 58: 582–92 (1990). 27. D. W. Griffin, D. Dunning, and L.