Parkinson's law

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pages: 261 words: 16,734

Peopleware: Productive Projects and Teams by Tom Demarco, Timothy Lister

A Pattern Language, cognitive dissonance, interchangeable parts, job satisfaction, knowledge worker, lateral thinking, Parkinson's law, performance metric, skunkworks, supply-chain management, women in the workforce

Of course, it would take nerves of steel, at least the first time. Your principal concern would be that Parkinson’s Law would be working against you. That’s an important enough subject to warrant a chapter of its own. 5. Parkinson’s Law Revisited Writing in 1954, the British author C. Northcote Parkinson introduced the notion that work expands to fill the time allocated for it, now known as Parkinson’s Law. If you didn’t know that few managers receive any management training at all, you might think there was a school they all went to for an intensive course on Parkinson’s Law and its ramifications. Even managers that know they know nothing about management nonetheless cling to that one axiomatic truth governing people and their attitude toward work: Parkinson’s Law. It gives them the strongest possible conviction that the only way to get work done at all is to set an impossibly optimistic delivery date.

It gives them the strongest possible conviction that the only way to get work done at all is to set an impossibly optimistic delivery date. Parkinson’s Law and Newton’s Law Parkinson’s Law is a long way from being axiomatic. It’s not a law in the same sense that Newton’s law is a law. Newton was a scientist. He investigated the gravitational effect according to the strictest scientific method. His law was only propounded after rigorous verification and testing. It has stood the test of several centuries of subsequent study. Parkinson was not a scientist. He collected no data; he probably didn’t even understand the rules of statistical inference. Parkinson was a humorist. His “law” didn’t catch on because it was so true. It caught on because it was funny. Of course, Parkinson’s Law wouldn’t be funny if there weren’t a germ of truth in it. Parkinson cites examples of his law as observed in a fictitious government bureaucracy, some believe patterned on the British Post Office.

Some Data from the University of New South Wales Of course, the Parkinson’s Law mentality is not going to go away just because we say it ought to. What would help to convert managers would be some carefully collected data proving that Parkinson’s Law doesn’t apply to most workers. (Forget for a moment that Parkinson supplied no data at all to prove that the law did apply, he just reiterated it for a few hundred pages.) Two respected researchers at the University of New South Wales, Michael Lawrence and Ross Jeffery, ran annual surveys through the eighties and nineties. They measured live projects in industry according to a common data collection standard. Each year they focused on a different aspect of project work. The 1985 survey provided some data that reflects on the inapplicability of Parkinson’s Law. It isn’t exactly the “smoking gun” that completely invalidates the law, but it ought to be sufficient to raise some doubts.

pages: 170 words: 46,126

The 1% Rule: How to Fall in Love With the Process and Achieve Your Wildest Dreams by Tommy Baker

"side hustle", Cal Newport, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, Elon Musk, knowledge worker, Parkinson's law, passive income, Steve Jobs

“What can I execute on right now that will prove that my outcome and vision are not only possible, but coming true?” Using this question on a daily basis will prove priceless to you—if used with intention and clarity after you’ve done the work required to know where you’re going. PARKINSON’S LAW We’re all crammers. Human nature dictates we are, so your tendency to cram for your final exams in high school and college has likely carried on well into adulthood. Many times, we won’t even start until we can’t go one second longer and we have our backs up against the wall. Urgency in life matters but it must be used the right way, and without the constant rollercoaster we’ve all experienced. Parkinson’s Law (Parkinson 1955) is one of the most studied, researched, and used concepts in productivity for great reason. The principle, written by C. Northcote Parkinson, is simple: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.


You submitted a proposal at work on Monday for the following week, yet didn’t start until Friday night. You commit to cleaning your entire place on a Sunday, yet don’t start until it’s time to go to bed. We’ve all been there, and it can be outrageous how much we can get done at the last minute. However, this is not a long-term strategy for success. It’s stressful and usually leaves us exhausted the next day. What makes Parkinson’s Law powerful is that it mirrors a universal law where empty space will be filled by the lowest possible priority. One of my mentors, Dr. John Demartini, taught me this in Houston, Texas, once when he said: If you don’t fill your day with high-priority items, others will fill your day with low-priority items. The question is designed to help you break through and specifically identify the action step you’re committed to achieving.

pages: 426 words: 105,423

The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9-5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich by Timothy Ferriss

Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, call centre, clean water, Donald Trump,, Firefox, fixed income, follow your passion, game design, global village, Iridium satellite, knowledge worker, late fees, lateral thinking, Maui Hawaii, oil shock, paper trading, Parkinson's law, passive income, peer-to-peer, pre–internet, Ralph Waldo Emerson, remote working, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, Steve Jobs, Vilfredo Pareto, wage slave, William of Occam

Twenty-four hours later and one minute before the deadline, as his assistant was locking the office, I handed in a 30-page final paper. It was based on a different company I had found, interviewed, and dissected with an intense all-nighter and enough caffeine to get an entire Olympic track team disqualified. It ended up being one of the best papers I’d written in four years, and I received an A. Before I left the classroom the previous day, Ed had given me some parting advice: Parkinson’s Law. Parkinson’s Law dictates that a task will swell in (perceived) importance and complexity in relation to the time allotted for its completion. It is the magic of the imminent deadline. If I give you 24 hours to complete a project, the time pressure forces you to focus on execution, and you have no choice but to do only the bare essentials. If I give you a week to complete the same task, it’s six days of making a mountain out of a molehill.

It is a symptom of “task creep”—doing more to feel productive while actually accomplishing less. As stated, you should have, at most, two primary goals or tasks per day. Do them separately from start to finish without distraction. Divided attention will result in more frequent interruptions, lapses in concentration, poorer net results, and less gratification. 9. Use Parkinson’s Law on a Macro and Micro Level. Use Parkinson’s Law to accomplish more in less time. Shorten schedules and deadlines to necessitate focused action instead of deliberation and procrastination. On a weekly and daily macro level, attempt to take Monday and/or Friday off, as well as leave work at 4 P.M. This will focus you to prioritize more effectively and quite possibly develop a social life. If you’re under the hawklike watch of a boss, we’ll discuss the nuts and bolts of how to escape in later chapters.

Of course, before you can separate the wheat from the chaff and eliminate activities in a new environment (whether a new job or an entrepreneurial venture), you will need to try a lot to identify what pulls the most weight. Throw it all up on the wall and see what sticks. That’s part of the process, but it should not take more than a month or two. It’s easy to get caught in a flood of minutiae, and the key to not feeling rushed is remembering that lack of time is actually lack of priorities. Take time to stop and smell the roses, or—in this case—to count the pea pods. The 9–5 Illusion and Parkinson’s Law I saw a bank that said “24-Hour Banking,” but I don’t have that much time. —STEVEN WRIGHT, comedian If you’re an employee, spending time on nonsense is, to some extent, not your fault. There is often no incentive to use time well unless you are paid on commission. The world has agreed to shuffle papers between 9:00 A.M. and 5:00 P.M., and since you’re trapped in the office for that period of servitude, you are compelled to create activities to fill that time.

pages: 624 words: 127,987

The Personal MBA: A World-Class Business Education in a Single Volume by Josh Kaufman

Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, Black Swan, business cycle, business process, buy low sell high, capital asset pricing model, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Heinemeier Hansson, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Dean Kamen, delayed gratification, discounted cash flows, Donald Knuth, double entry bookkeeping, Douglas Hofstadter,, Frederick Winslow Taylor, George Santayana, Gödel, Escher, Bach, high net worth, hindsight bias, index card, inventory management, iterative process, job satisfaction, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Lao Tzu, lateral thinking, loose coupling, loss aversion, Marc Andreessen, market bubble, Network effects, Parkinson's law, Paul Buchheit, Paul Graham, place-making, premature optimization, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rent control, side project, statistical model, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, subscription business, telemarketer, the scientific method, time value of money, Toyota Production System, tulip mania, Upton Sinclair, Vilfredo Pareto, Walter Mischel, Y Combinator, Yogi Berra

If something must be done next week, it’ll be done next week. If something must be done tomorrow, it’ll be done tomorrow. We plan based on how much time we have, and when the deadline approaches, we start to make Choices and Trade-offs to do what must be done to complete the task by the deadline. Parkinson’s Law should not be considered carte blanche to set unreasonable deadlines. All projects take time—you certainly can’t build a skyscraper in a day or a factory in a week. The more complex the project, the more time it typically takes—to a point. Parkinson’s Law is best used as a Counterfactual Simulation question. What would it look like if you finished the project on a very aggressive time scale? If you had to build a skyscraper in a day, how would you go about doing it? Answer the question the way you would a counterfactual, and you’ll discover techniques or approaches you can use to get the work done in less time.

I typically use a 3 × 5 index card or David Seah’s “Emergent Task Planner,”7 a free downloadable PDF that makes it easy to plan your day. When creating your list of MITs, it’s useful to ask a Self-Elicitation question : “What are the two or three most important things that I need to do today? What are the things that—if I got them done today—would make a huge difference?” Write only those tasks on your MIT list, then try to get them done first thing in the morning. Combining this technique with Parkinson’s Law (discussed later) by setting an artificial deadline is extremely effective. If you set a goal to have all of your MITs done by 10:00 a.m., you’ll be amazed at how quickly you can complete the day’s most important tasks. Having a list of two or three MITs helps you maintain a Monoideal state by giving you permission to say no to interruptions that aren’t as important. If you’re working on your MITs and someone calls you, it’s easier to ignore the call or tell the caller, “I’m working under deadline—I’ll get back to you later.”

After doing a simulation, you’ll always come away with a greater understanding of what it takes to do something, or what would need to be true in order to make something work. Apply your mind to Counterfactual Simulation, and you’ll be absolutely astounded at how easy it is to accomplish some of the things that you assumed were simply dreams. SHARE THIS CONCEPT: Parkinson’s Law Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. —CYRIL NORTHCOTE PARKINSON, NAVAL HISTORIAN AND MANAGEMENT THEORIST In 1955, Cyril Northcote Parkinson wrote a humorous essay in the Economist based on his experience in the British civil service. In that essay, Parkinson proposed what became his eponymous law: “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.”

Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models by Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann

affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, anti-pattern, Anton Chekhov, autonomous vehicles, bank run, barriers to entry, Bayesian statistics, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, business process, butterfly effect, Cal Newport, Clayton Christensen, cognitive dissonance, commoditize, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Attenborough, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, discounted cash flows, disruptive innovation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, effective altruism, Elon Musk,, experimental subject, fear of failure, feminist movement, Filter Bubble, framing effect, friendly fire, fundamental attribution error, Gödel, Escher, Bach, hindsight bias, housing crisis, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, illegal immigration, income inequality, information asymmetry, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, John Nash: game theory, lateral thinking, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, Lyft, mail merge, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Metcalfe’s law, Milgram experiment, minimum viable product, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Network effects, nuclear winter, offshore financial centre, p-value, Parkinson's law, Paul Graham, peak oil, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, placebo effect, Potemkin village, prediction markets, premature optimization, price anchoring, principal–agent problem, publication bias, recommendation engine, remote working, replication crisis, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Richard Thaler, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, school choice, Schrödinger's Cat, selection bias, Shai Danziger, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, survivorship bias, The Present Situation in Quantum Mechanics, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, uber lyft, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, urban planning, Vilfredo Pareto, wikimedia commons

., 38 oil, 105–6 Olympics, 209, 246–48, 285 O’Neal, Shaquille, 246 one-hundred-year floods, 192 Onion, 211–12 On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection (Darwin), 100 OODA loop, 294–95 openness to experience, 250 Operation Ceasefire, 232 opinion, diversity of, 205, 206 opioids, 36 opportunity cost, 76–77, 80, 83, 179, 182, 188, 305 of capital, 77, 179, 182 optimistic probability bias, 33 optimization, premature, 7 optimums, local and global, 195–96 optionality, preserving, 58–59 Oracle, 231, 291, 299 order, 124 balance between chaos and, 128 organizations: culture in, 107–8, 113, 273–80, 293 size and growth of, 278–79 teams in, see teams ostrich with its head in the sand, 55 out-group bias, 127 outliers, 148 Outliers (Gladwell), 261 overfitting, 10–11 overwork, 82 Paine, Thomas, 221–22 pain relievers, 36, 137 Pampered Chef, 217 Pangea, 24–25 paradigm shift, 24, 289 paradox of choice, 62–63 parallel processing, 96 paranoia, 308, 309, 311 Pareto, Vilfredo, 80 Pareto principle, 80–81 Pariser, Eli, 17 Parkinson, Cyril, 74–75, 89 Parkinson’s law, 89 Parkinson’s Law (Parkinson), 74–75 Parkinson’s law of triviality, 74, 89 passwords, 94, 97 past, 201, 271–72, 309–10 Pasteur, Louis, 26 path dependence, 57–59, 194 path of least resistance, 88 Patton, Bruce, 19 Pauling, Linus, 220 payoff matrix, 212–15, 238 PayPal, 72, 291, 296 peak, 105, 106, 112 peak oil, 105 Penny, Jonathon, 52 pent-up energy, 112 perfect, 89–90 as enemy of the good, 61, 89–90 personality traits, 249–50 person-month, 279 perspective, 11 persuasion, see influence models perverse incentives, 50–51, 54 Peter, Laurence, 256 Peter principle, 256, 257 Peterson, Tom, 108–9 Petrified Forest National Park, 217–18 Pew Research, 53 p-hacking, 169, 172 phishing, 97 phones, 116–17, 290 photography, 302–3, 308–10 physics, x, 114, 194, 293 quantum, 200–201 pick your battles, 238 Pinker, Steven, 144 Pirahã, x Pitbull, 36 pivoting, 295–96, 298–301, 308, 311, 312 placebo, 137 placebo effect, 137 Planck, Max, 24 Playskool, 111 Podesta, John, 97 point of no return, 244 Polaris, 67–68 polarity, 125–26 police, in organizations and projects, 253–54 politics, 70, 104 ads and statements in, 225–26 elections, 206, 218, 233, 241, 271, 293, 299 failure and, 47 influence in, 216 predictions in, 206 polls and surveys, 142–43, 152–54, 160 approval ratings, 152–54, 158 employee engagement, 140, 142 postmortems, 32, 92 Potemkin village, 228–29 potential energy, 112 power, 162 power drills, 296 power law distribution, 80–81 power vacuum, 259–60 practice, deliberate, 260–62, 264, 266 precautionary principle, 59–60 Predictably Irrational (Ariely), 14, 222–23 predictions and forecasts, 132, 173 market for, 205–7 superforecasters and, 206–7 PredictIt, 206 premature optimization, 7 premises, see principles pre-mortems, 92 present bias, 85, 87, 93, 113 preserving optionality, 58–59 pressure point, 112 prices, 188, 231, 299 arbitrage and, 282–83 bait and switch and, 228, 229 inflation in, 179–80, 182–83 loss leader strategy and, 236–37 manufacturer’s suggested retail, 15 monopolies and, 283 principal, 44–45 principal-agent problem, 44–45 principles (premises), 207 first, 4–7, 31, 207 prior, 159 prioritizing, 68 prisoners, 63, 232 prisoner’s dilemma, 212–14, 226, 234–35, 244 privacy, 55 probability, 132, 173, 194 bias, optimistic, 33 conditional, 156 probability distributions, 150, 151 bell curve (normal), 150–52, 153, 163–66, 191 Bernoulli, 152 central limit theorem and, 152–53, 163 fat-tailed, 191 power law, 80–81 sample, 152–53 pro-con lists, 175–78, 185, 189 procrastination, 83–85, 87, 89 product development, 294 product/market fit, 292–96, 302 promotions, 256, 275 proximate cause, 31, 117 proxy endpoint, 137 proxy metric, 139 psychology, 168 Psychology of Science, The (Maslow), 177 Ptolemy, Claudius, 8 publication bias, 170, 173 public goods, 39 punching above your weight, 242 p-values, 164, 165, 167–69, 172 Pygmalion effect, 267–68 Pyrrhus, King, 239 Qualcomm, 231 quantum physics, 200–201 quarantine, 234 questions: now what, 291 what if, 122, 201 why, 32, 33 why now, 291 quick and dirty, 234 quid pro quo, 215 Rabois, Keith, 72, 265 Rachleff, Andy, 285–86, 292–93 radical candor, 263–64 Radical Candor (Scott), 263 radiology, 291 randomized controlled experiment, 136 randomness, 201 rats, 51 Rawls, John, 21 Regan, Ronald, 183 real estate agents, 44–45 recessions, 121–22 reciprocity, 215–16, 220, 222, 229, 289 recommendations, 217 red line, 238 referrals, 217 reframe the problem, 96–97 refugee asylum cases, 144 regression to the mean, 146, 286 regret, 87 regulations, 183–84, 231–32 regulatory capture, 305–7 reinventing the wheel, 92 relationships, 53, 55, 63, 91, 111, 124, 159, 271, 296, 298 being locked into, 305 dating, 8–10, 95 replication crisis, 168–72 Republican Party, 104 reputation, 215 research: meta-analysis of, 172–73 publication bias and, 170, 173 systematic reviews of, 172, 173 see also experiments resonance, 293–94 response bias, 142, 143 responsibility, diffusion of, 259 restaurants, 297 menus at, 14, 62 RetailMeNot, 281 retaliation, 238 returns: diminishing, 81–83 negative, 82–83, 93 reversible decisions, 61–62 revolving door, 306 rewards, 275 Riccio, Jim, 306 rise to the occasion, 268 risk, 43, 46, 90, 288 cost-benefit analysis and, 180 de-risking, 6–7, 10, 294 moral hazard and, 43–45, 47 Road Ahead, The (Gates), 69 Roberts, Jason, 122 Roberts, John, 27 Rogers, Everett, 116 Rogers, William, 31 Rogers Commission Report, 31–33 roles, 256–58, 260, 271, 293 roly-poly toy, 111–12 root cause, 31–33, 234 roulette, 144 Rubicon River, 244 ruinous empathy, 264 Rumsfeld, Donald, 196–97, 247 Rumsfeld’s Rule, 247 Russia, 218, 241 Germany and, 70, 238–39 see also Soviet Union Sacred Heart University (SHU), 217, 218 sacrifice play, 239 Sagan, Carl, 220 sales, 81, 216–17 Salesforce, 299 same-sex marriage, 117, 118 Sample, Steven, 28 sample distribution, 152–53 sample size, 143, 160, 162, 163, 165–68, 172 Sánchez, Ricardo, 234 sanctions and fines, 232 Sanders, Bernie, 70, 182, 293 Sayre, Wallace, 74 Sayre’s law, 74 scarcity, 219, 220 scatter plot, 126 scenario analysis (scenario planning), 198–99, 201–3, 207 schools, see education and schools Schrödinger, Erwin, 200 Schrödinger’s cat, 200 Schultz, Howard, 296 Schwartz, Barry, 62–63 science, 133, 220 cargo cult, 315–16 Scientific Autobiography and other Papers (Planck), 24 scientific evidence, 139 scientific experiments, see experiments scientific method, 101–2, 294 scorched-earth tactics, 243 Scott, Kim, 263 S curves, 117, 120 secondary markets, 281–82 second law of thermodynamics, 124 secrets, 288–90, 292 Securities and Exchange Commission, U.S., 228 security, false sense of, 44 security services, 229 selection, adverse, 46–47 selection bias, 139–40, 143, 170 self-control, 87 self-fulfilling prophecies, 267 self-serving bias, 21, 272 Seligman, Martin, 22 Semmelweis, Ignaz, 25–26 Semmelweis reflex, 26 Seneca, Marcus, 60 sensitivity analysis, 181–82, 185, 188 dynamic, 195 Sequoia Capital, 291 Sessions, Roger, 8 sexual predators, 113 Shakespeare, William, 105 Sheets Energy Strips, 36 Shermer, Michael, 133 Shirky, Clay, 104 Shirky principle, 104, 112 Short History of Nearly Everything, A (Bryson), 50 short-termism, 55–56, 58, 60, 68, 85 side effects, 137 signal and noise, 311 significance, 167 statistical, 164–67, 170 Silicon Valley, 288, 289 simulations, 193–95 simultaneous invention, 291–92 Singapore math, 23–24 Sir David Attenborough, RSS, 35 Skeptics Society, 133 sleep meditation app, 162–68 slippery slope argument, 235 slow (high-concentration) thinking, 30, 33, 70–71 small numbers, law of, 143, 144 smartphones, 117, 290, 309, 310 smoking, 41, 42, 133–34, 139, 173 Snap, 299 Snowden, Edward, 52, 53 social engineering, 97 social equality, 117 social media, 81, 94, 113, 217–19, 241 Facebook, 18, 36, 94, 119, 219, 233, 247, 305, 308 Instagram, 220, 247, 291, 310 YouTube, 220, 291 social networks, 117 Dunbar’s number and, 278 social norms versus market norms, 222–24 social proof, 217–20, 229 societal change, 100–101 software, 56, 57 simulations, 192–94 solitaire, 195 solution space, 97 Somalia, 243 sophomore slump, 145–46 South Korea, 229, 231, 238 Soviet Union: Germany and, 70, 238–39 Gosplan in, 49 in Cold War, 209, 235 space exploration, 209 spacing effect, 262 Spain, 243–44 spam, 37, 161, 192–93, 234 specialists, 252–53 species, 120 spending, 38, 74–75 federal, 75–76 spillover effects, 41, 43 sports, 82–83 baseball, 83, 145–46, 289 football, 226, 243 Olympics, 209, 246–48, 285 Spotify, 299 spreadsheets, 179, 180, 182, 299 Srinivasan, Balaji, 301 standard deviation, 149, 150–51, 154 standard error, 154 standards, 93 Stanford Law School, x Starbucks, 296 startup business idea, 6–7 statistics, 130–32, 146, 173, 289, 297 base rate in, 157, 159, 160 base rate fallacy in, 157, 158, 170 Bayesian, 157–60 confidence intervals in, 154–56, 159 confidence level in, 154, 155, 161 frequentist, 158–60 p-hacking in, 169, 172 p-values in, 164, 165, 167–69, 172 standard deviation in, 149, 150–51, 154 standard error in, 154 statistical significance, 164–67, 170 summary, 146, 147 see also data; experiments; probability distributions Staubach, Roger, 243 Sternberg, Robert, 290 stock and flow diagrams, 192 Stone, Douglas, 19 stop the bleeding, 234 strategy, 107–8 exit, 242–43 loss leader, 236–37 pivoting and, 295–96, 298–301, 308, 311, 312 tactics versus, 256–57 strategy tax, 103–4, 112 Stiglitz, Joseph, 306 straw man, 225–26 Streisand, Barbra, 51 Streisand effect, 51, 52 Stroll, Cliff, 290 Structure of Scientific Revolutions, The (Kuhn), 24 subjective versus objective, in organizational culture, 274 suicide, 218 summary statistics, 146, 147 sunk-cost fallacy, 91 superforecasters, 206–7 Superforecasting (Tetlock), 206–7 super models, viii–xii super thinking, viii–ix, 3, 316, 318 surface area, 122 luck, 122, 124, 128 surgery, 136–37 Surowiecki, James, 203–5 surrogate endpoint, 137 surveys, see polls and surveys survivorship bias, 140–43, 170, 272 sustainable competitive advantage, 283, 285 switching costs, 305 systematic review, 172, 173 systems thinking, 192, 195, 198 tactics, 256–57 Tajfel, Henri, 127 take a step back, 298 Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 2, 105 talk past each other, 225 Target, 236, 252 target, measurable, 49–50 taxes, 39, 40, 56, 104, 193–94 T cells, 194 teams, 246–48, 275 roles in, 256–58, 260 size of, 278 10x, 248, 249, 255, 260, 273, 280, 294 Tech, 83 technical debt, 56, 57 technologies, 289–90, 295 adoption curves of, 115 adoption life cycles of, 116–17, 129, 289, 290, 311–12 disruptive, 308, 310–11 telephone, 118–19 temperature: body, 146–50 thermostats and, 194 tennis, 2 10,000-Hour Rule, 261 10x individuals, 247–48 10x teams, 248, 249, 255, 260, 273, 280, 294 terrorism, 52, 234 Tesla, Inc., 300–301 testing culture, 50 Tetlock, Philip E., 206–7 Texas sharpshooter fallacy, 136 textbooks, 262 Thaler, Richard, 87 Theranos, 228 thermodynamics, 124 thermostats, 194 Thiel, Peter, 72, 288, 289 thinking: black-and-white, 126–28, 168, 272 convergent, 203 counterfactual, 201, 272, 309–10 critical, 201 divergent, 203 fast (low-concentration), 30, 70–71 gray, 28 inverse, 1–2, 291 lateral, 201 outside the box, 201 slow (high-concentration), 30, 33, 70–71 super, viii–ix, 3, 316, 318 systems, 192, 195, 198 writing and, 316 Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), 30 third story, 19, 92 thought experiment, 199–201 throwing good money after bad, 91 throwing more money at the problem, 94 tight versus loose, in organizational culture, 274 timeboxing, 75 time: management of, 38 as money, 77 work and, 89 tipping point, 115, 117, 119, 120 tit-for-tat, 214–15 Tōgō Heihachirō, 241 tolerance, 117 tools, 95 too much of a good thing, 60 top idea in your mind, 71, 72 toxic culture, 275 Toys “R” Us, 281 trade-offs, 77–78 traditions, 275 tragedy of the commons, 37–40, 43, 47, 49 transparency, 307 tribalism, 28 Trojan horse, 228 Truman Show, The, 229 Trump, Donald, 15, 206, 293 Trump: The Art of the Deal (Trump and Schwartz), 15 trust, 20, 124, 215, 217 trying too hard, 82 Tsushima, Battle of, 241 Tupperware, 217 TurboTax, 104 Turner, John, 127 turn lemons into lemonade, 121 Tversky, Amos, 9, 90 Twain, Mark, 106 Twitter, 233, 234, 296 two-front wars, 70 type I error, 161 type II error, 161 tyranny of small decisions, 38, 55 Tyson, Mike, 7 Uber, 231, 275, 288, 290 Ulam, Stanislaw, 195 ultimatum game, 224, 244 uncertainty, 2, 132, 173, 180, 182, 185 unforced error, 2, 10, 33 unicorn candidate, 257–58 unintended consequences, 35–36, 53–55, 57, 64–65, 192, 232 Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), 306 unique value proposition, 211 University of Chicago, 144 unknown knowns, 198, 203 unknowns: known, 197–98 unknown, 196–98, 203 urgency, false, 74 used car market, 46–47 U.S.

Two mental models can offer insight on this difficulty. Sayre’s law, named after political scientist Wallace Sayre, offers that in any dispute the intensity of feeling is inversely proportional to the value of the issues at stake. A related concept is Parkinson’s law of triviality, named after naval historian Cyril Parkinson, which states that organizations tend to give disproportionate weight to trivial issues. Both of these concepts explain how group dynamics can lead the group to focus on the wrong things. In his 1957 book Parkinson’s Law, Parkinson presents an example of a budget committee considering an atomic reactor and a bike shed, offering that “the time spent on any item of the agenda will be in inverse proportion to the sum involved.” The committee members are reluctant to deeply discuss all of the complicated aspects of the atomic reactor decision because it is challenging and esoteric.

By contrast, a realistic, time-bound, and specific gym commitment might be: “I will go to the gym Wednesday and Sunday mornings with my friend for the next three months, doing twenty minutes of running and twenty minutes of weight training, and I will give my friend twenty dollars each time I miss a date.” Once you overcome procrastination and are actually making consistent progress toward a goal, the next trap you can fall into is failing to plan your time effectively. Parkinson’s law (yes, another law by the same Parkinson of Parkinson’s law of triviality) states that “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” Does that ring true for you? It certainly does for us. When your top priority has a deadline far in the future, it doesn’t mean that you need to spend all your time on it until the deadline. The sooner you finish, the sooner you can move on to the next item on your list.

pages: 222 words: 53,317

Overcomplicated: Technology at the Limits of Comprehension by Samuel Arbesman

algorithmic trading, Anton Chekhov, Apple II, Benoit Mandelbrot, citation needed, combinatorial explosion, Danny Hillis, David Brooks, digital map, discovery of the americas,, Erik Brynjolfsson, Flash crash, friendly AI, game design, Google X / Alphabet X, Googley, HyperCard, Inbox Zero, Isaac Newton, iterative process, Kevin Kelly, Machine translation of "The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak." to Russian and back, mandelbrot fractal, Minecraft, Netflix Prize, Nicholas Carr, Parkinson's law, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, software studies, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, superintelligent machines, Therac-25, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, Whole Earth Catalog, Y2K

United States, 498 U.S 192. See also United States v. Murdock, 290 U.S. 389. pages in the Code of Federal Regulations: Susan E. Dudley and Jerry Brito, Regulation: A Primer, 2nd ed. (Arlington, VA, and Washington, DC: Mercatus Center, George Mason University, and The George Washington University Regulatory Studies Center, 2012), 5, known as Parkinson’s Law: “Parkinson’s Law,” The Economist, November 19, 1955, accessed February 26, 2015, This relationship does not seem to hold when a country is at war. those in the software world have enshrined this idea: See Meir M. Lehman, “Programs, Life Cycles, and Laws of Software Evolution,” Proceedings of the IEEE 68, no. 9 (1980): 1060–76. Also Lehman et al., “Metrics and Laws of Software Evolution—The Nineties View,” in METRICS ’97, Proceedings of the Fourth International Software Metrics Symposium (Washington, DC: IEEE Computer Society, 1997), 20–32.

Or consider the overall growth in regulations enacted by various departments and agencies of the government, such as the Environmental Protection Agency. For example, if you look only at the number of pages in the Code of Federal Regulations—the collection of rules from these many agencies—this number has gone from fewer than 25,000 to more than 165,000 in the past fifty years. We see a similar growth in bureaucracies and administration. In an article from the 1950s, The Economist proposed something known as Parkinson’s Law, which is a quantitative description of the multiplication of bureaucrats over time. While the article is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, it is buttressed with data, and concludes that governmental bureaucracies are essentially compelled to grow at the rate of about 5–6 percent more people per year. Managing an ever-growing bureaucratic structure seems to only increase in complexity. In fact, those in the software world have enshrined this idea of accretion and accumulation to the level of a general rule.

., 46 Newton, Isaac, 89, 112, 114, 152, 221 New York Stock Exchange, 1, 187 Niagara Falls Museum, 88 nonlinear systems, 78–79 Norman, Don, 158–59, 172 Northeast Blackout (2003), 48, 128 Norton, Quinn, 22 Norvig, Peter, 56 “novelty detection,” 127 nuclear power plants, 126 Oremus, Will, 189 outliers, 76–77, 137 see also edge cases Out of Control (Kelly), 83 overclocking, 76 Oxford English Dictionary, 55 Pac-Man, 160 Parkinson’s Law, 41 particle accelerators, 2 pattern-making mind, 146–47 penicillin, 124 percolation, 133–34 personbyte, 212 pharmaceutical research, 125 Philosophical Transactions, 111 philosophy of technology, 79–81 Photoshop, 35 physical systems, biological systems vs., 116–17 physics thinking, 112–13, 121 abstraction in, 115–16, 121–22, 128 aesthetics and, 113, 114 in ancient Greece, 138–40 biological thinking vs., 114–16, 137–38, 142–43, 222 technological complexity and, 122, 127–28 unity in, 117 Pinker, Steven, 73 poliovirus, 49 polymaths, 86–89, 93, 144 Post, David, 61 Postal Service, U.S., 34 posterior hippocampus, 78 power grid, cascading blackouts in, 47–48, 128 power laws, 55–56, 206 pre-Socratics, 138–40 programmers, programming: computer vs. human counting in, 69–70, 209 differences of scale and, 50–51 languages in, 23 lessons from, 160–63 recursion and, 71 as valuable skill, 43 see also software Programming Pearls, 104–5 progress, overoptimistic view of, 12–13 progress bars, 159–60 Progressive Policy Institute, 46 Ptak, John, 147–48 Quabbin Reservoir, 101 radiation machines, overdose failures of, 67–69 radical novelty, 3, 50 railroads, 2 RAM, 110 Ramanujan, Srinivasa, 77, 78 recursion: in language, 71–72, 75 in programming, 71 refactoring, 200, 201 regulatory accumulation, 46–47 Renaissance man, 86–89, 93, 144 see also generalists resilience, in technological complexity, 16 resolution, levels of, 127–28 RNA interference (RNAi), 123–24, 141 road system, complexity of, 16 Rosenberg, Scott, 69 Royal Society, 111 scale, difference of, 50–51 Schwarz, Barbara, 10 scientific method, 109 limits to, 153 scientific models, 131 edge cases in, 54–62, 207 interconnection of, 2 as means of understanding complex systems, 165–67 software bugs in, 97 Scientific Reports, 4 Scientific Revolution, optimistic view of human comprehension in, 152–53 security, software bugs and, 97–98 Seinfeld (TV show), 130 sentences: garden path, 74–75 parsing of, 73–74 sewage systems, complexity of, 101 Shakespeare, William, 55 Shatner, William, 160 Shepard, Alan, 200 sickle-cell anemia, 128 SimCity, 159, 166 simulations, see scientific models software: accretion in, 37–38, 41–42, 44 in automobiles, 10–11, 13, 45, 65, 100, 174 branch points in, 80–81 complexity of, 43–44, 59, 68–69 “dark code” in, 21–22 “hygiene” in, 65, 81 interaction in, 44–45 kluges in, 35 legacy code in, see legacy code, legacy systems modules in, 63–64 multidisciplinary teams and, 92 testing of, 107 see also programmers, programming software bugs, 1, 45, 65, 156 complexity and, 96–97 dangerous consequences of, 67–69 debugging of, 103–7 in Galaga, 95–96, 97, 216–17 inevitability of, 174–75 in Microsoft Windows, 98 in scientific models, 97–98 security and, 97–98 in Vancouver Stock Exchange index, 105–6 soldiers, “losing the bubble” and, 70 sophistication, in technological complexity, 16 space shuttle missions, outdated computer systems used by, 38 spaghetti code, 44–45, 201 spatial memory, 78 special effects, greeblies in, 130 specialization: abstraction and, 24, 26–27 collaboration and, 91–92 complexity and, 85–93 generalists and, 146 as rewarded by job market, 144 technological complexity and, 142 Stephenson, Neal, 128–29 stock market systems: complexity of, 4 crashes in, 1, 4, 25, 187 interconnectivity of, 2, 24–26 laws and rules of, 25 and limits of human comprehension, 26–27, 189 storytelling, biological and physical thinking in, 129–30 strangeness, as impetus for scientific discovery, 124, 140–41 subitizing, 75 supply chains, interconnection of, 2 Supreme Court, U.S., 40 Symons, John, 79–80, 97 Systems Bible, The (Gall), 157–58 tax code, 16, 40, 42 Tay (chatbot), 106–7 technological complexity: abstraction and, 23–28, 81, 121–22 accretion in, 130–31 awe as response to, 6, 7, 154–55, 156, 165, 174 biological thinking and, 116–49, 158, 174 branch points and, 80–81 evolution of, 127, 137–38 as examples of human ingenuity, 4 fear as response to, 5, 7, 154–55, 156, 165 “field biologists” for, 123, 126, 127, 132 humility as response to, 155–56, 158, 165, 167, 170, 174, 176 impact of computer on, 3 inevitability of, 42 interconnectivity in, 2, 47–48 interdependence in, 47–48 interoperability in, 47–48, 64–65 interpreters of, 166–67, 229 kluges as inevitable in, 34–36, 127, 128, 154, 173–74 and limits of human comprehension, 1–7, 16–29, 69–70, 80–81, 153–54, 169–70, 175–76 misunderstandings about, 68–69 models as means of understanding, 165–67 naches as response to, 168–69, 174 new ways of thinking about, 6–7, 28–29, 163–67, 176 optimal interoperability in, 62–63 pervasiveness of, 15–16 physics thinking and, 122, 127–28 rapid growth of, 173 resilience in, 16 sophistication in, 16 specialization and, 142 unexpected behavior in, see unexpected behavior user interfaces and, 159 wonder vs. mystery in comprehension of, 170–76 see also complexity, complex systems technological werewolves, 93, 97, 102 technology: cost of construction vs. cost of failure in, 48–50 interconnection of natural world and, 3–4 “natural history” of, 103–4 philosophy of, 79–81 self-contained ecosystems in, 4 Teece, David, 144 Thales, 139 Theory of Everything, 113 Therac-25, overdose failures of, 67–69 Three Mile Island nuclear disaster, 12, 126 time zones, 2, 51–52 tinkering, 118, 125–26, 127, 132, 191 Torvalds, Linus, 102 Toyota automobiles: massively complex software in, 11, 45, 65 unintended acceleration of, 10–11, 13, 65, 174 Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS), 18–19 translation software, 57–59, 207 triumphalism, 153, 156 T-shaped individuals, 143–44, 146 Tubes (Blum), 101–2 TurboTax, 160 Turing, Alan, 96, 175 Twitter, 106 unexpected behavior, 4, 18–20, 95–110 accretion and, 38 in biology, 109–10, 123–24 complexity and, 93, 96–97, 98–99, 192 debugging and, 103–4 deliberate inducing of, 124–25 edge cases and, 99–100 inevitability of, 157, 174–75 interconnectivity and, 11–12 as learning experience, 102–7, 123–24, 219–20 and limits of human comprehension, 18–22, 96–97, 98 “magical” explanation for, 20–22 modules and, 64 of software, see software bugs of Toyota automobiles, 10–11, 13, 65, 174 United Airlines, 1 United States Code, 33–34, 64, 136–37 unity, search for, see physics thinking unthinkable present, 176 user interfaces, 159–60, 163 Valéry, Paul, 193 Vancouver Stock Exchange stock index, software bug in, 105–6 Wall Street Journal, 1, 187 water supply systems, complexity of, 101, 102 Watson, 169 Watts, Duncan, 62 weather science, 148, 165 Weber, Max, 13 websites, interconnection of, 2 Wells, H.

pages: 134 words: 41,085

The Wake-Up Call: Why the Pandemic Has Exposed the Weakness of the West, and How to Fix It by John Micklethwait, Adrian Wooldridge

Admiral Zheng, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, basic income, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Bernie Sanders, Boris Johnson, carried interest, cashless society, central bank independence, Corn Laws, coronavirus, COVID-19, Covid-19, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Deng Xiaoping, Dominic Cummings, Donald Trump, Etonian, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, global pandemic, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jones Act, knowledge economy, laissez-faire capitalism, McMansion, night-watchman state, offshore financial centre, oil shock, Panopticon Jeremy Bentham, Parkinson's law, pensions crisis, QR code, rent control, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, Shoshana Zuboff, Silicon Valley, smart cities, trade route, universal basic income, Washington Consensus

This was a golden age to be a European civil servant—not just because pay was in line with the private sector but because of what you were trusted to do. The philosophy was, as one Labor intellectual put it, that “the gentleman in Whitehall really does know better what is good for people than the people know themselves.” And, with the same principle applying to gentlemen (and women) in Bonn, Paris, and Rome, bureaucracies began to sprawl. In 1955, Cyril Northcote Parkinson invented Parkinson’s Law—that work expands to fill the time available for its completion—partly on the basis of observing the way that Britain’s Colonial Office gradually grew as the Empire shrunk, with the maximum number of staff occurring when it was folded into the Foreign Office due to the lack of colonies left to administer.29 The United States never went in for nationalizing industries as they did in Europe.

America adds a peculiar disincentive of its own: the raft of political appointees at the top. As late as the mid-1970s, two thirds of senior positions in Washington were filled by civil servants; now only a third are. Would you want to be an American diplomat if you could never become ambassador to China or the Court of St. James’s? Given the poor pay and hostile atmosphere, civil servants have to look for their status elsewhere. “Parkinson’s Law” survives across the West. Visit any cabinet department in Washington, DC, and you will find a bunch of flunkies with inflated titles like chief of staff, “deputy deputy assistant secretary,” and, presumably, deputy to the deputy deputy assistant secretary. The Italian president has nine hundred underlings, eight times as many as the German president. There are thousands of state limousines.

pages: 347 words: 88,114

The Zero-Waste Lifestyle: Live Well by Throwing Away Less by Amy Korst

airport security, business climate, carbon footprint, delayed gratification, if you build it, they will come, Mason jar, Parkinson's law

Here, necessity is the mother of invention—work hard to find unique ways to embrace the 3 Rs, and reuse what would usually be trash. William Rathje, whose archaeology of garbage project I talked about in this book’s introduction, found much the same thing. One of Rathje’s discoveries earned the title of Parkinson’s Law of Garbage, which goes like this: “Garbage expands so as to fill the receptacles available for its containment.” (The law is named after C. Northcote Parkinson, who said, “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.”) We’ve found Parkinson’s Law to be true—take away the receptacle and, in some very real ways, you take away the trash. Right now, you’re just in the planning stages of your new zero-waste lifestyle. Chapters 3 through 5 will help you establish the systems you need to manage your transition to trash-free living.

See Trash Garbage bags, 3.1, 5.1 Garbage Project Gas stations, 11.1 Gift cards Gifts ideas for packaging and receiving wrapping Girl Scouts, donating to Glad Rags Glass cleaning recycling, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4 Global warming Gloves Goals, setting Golf balls Goodwill Green Dot program Green Garbage Project, itr.1, 2.1, epl.1, epl.2 Greeting cards Grout, cleaning H Hair, 2.1, 5.1, 7.1 accessories care products Halloween, 13.1, bm.1 Hand wipes HDPE (high density polyethylene) Herb crackers Herbs Heritage Turkey Foundation Highlighters Hobbies Holidays decorating for food for lights planning celebration of special traditions for Home-waste audit, conducting Hotels I Incinerators Independence Day Ink cartridges, 12.1, bm.1 Instant gratification, combating Invitations J Jack-o’-lanterns Jeans Jewel cases Jordan, Chris K Keep America Beautiful Kitchen tracking waste from zero-waste L Landfills Laundry detergent Laundry room tracking waste from zero-waste LDPE (low density polyethylene) Leachate, 1.1, 1.2 Leather Leave No Trace principles Leaves Leelyn, Lou Lemon juice Leonard, Annie Life cycle, of products Lightbulbs, 4.1, bm.1 Linen spray Lint brushes Litter, itr.1, 1.1, epl.1, epl.2, epl.3 Livestrong bracelets Local businesses, supporting, itr.1, 2.1 Local Harvest Locks of Love Loofah sponges, 5.1, 7.1 Lou’s Upcycles Lunapads Lunch baggies, 7.1 M Makeup, 7.1, bm.1 Manufacturers, responsibility of Marine litter Masking tape Matches, used Meat, 2.1, 5.1, 5.2, 6.1, 13.1 Medical appointments Medical products, 2.1, 7.1 Menstrual pads, 7.1, 7.2 Mesh produce bags, 3.1, 6.1 Metal, recycling, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, bm.1 Methane, 1.1, 1.2 Microplastics, 1.1, 4.1 Milk cartons Mirrors MRFs (Materials Recovery Facilities) MSW (municipal solid waste), 1.1, 1.2 Mulch N Nail clippings Napkins, paper, 3.1, 4.1, 5.1 National Costume Swap Day Newspapers, 1.1, 4.1, 5.1 New Year’s Eve Nut shells O Obsolete items Oceans, trash in, 1.1, 4.1 Office supplies Oils cooking removing stains of Olympic National Park, epl.1 Oregon Caves National Monument Organizations, with zero-waste goals, 7.1 Outdoor spaces, tracking waste from Oven cleaner P Packaging composite materials as as percent of waste recycling, 2.1, 4.1 responsibility of manufacturers for Paper bags, 3.1, 5.1 butcher composting cups egg cartons napkins, 3.1, 4.1, 5.1 plates recycling, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 shredded, 4.1, 5.1 tablecloths tissue, 4.1, 4.2 towels waxed, 4.1, 5.1 in the workplace Paper clips Parkinson’s Law of Garbage Parties Halloween New Year’s Eve at work, 2.1, 12.1 Pawn shops Peanuts, packing Pencils Pencil shavings, 5.1, 12.1 Pens, 3.1, 12.1, bm.1 PET/PETE (polyethylene terephthalate) Pets food and treats for, 5.1, 6.1 toys for waste from, 2.1, 5.1, 5.2 Pizza boxes Plane, traveling by Plants, 5.1, 13.1 Plastic bags, 3.1, 4.1 bottle caps cards compostable containers, reheating food in recycling, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4, bm.1 silverware straws, 3.1, 4.1 stretchy trash Plates, paper POPs (persistent organic pollutants) Potpourri PP (polypropylene) Precycling Prescription bottles Preserve Gimme 5, 4.1, 4.2, bm.1 Produce bags, 3.1, 6.1 Produce stickers, 4.1, bm.1 Product stewardship PS (polystyrene) PVC (polyvinyl chloride), 4.1, 4.2, 13.1 R Raffia Rags Rathje, William, 1.1, 2.1, 5.1 Rawhide dog chews Razors Receipts Recipes Recycling commingled, 4.1, 4.2 composting as determining suitability for, 2.1, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, 4.4 guide to of “hand-carry” items, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 local requirements for, 4.1, 4.2 plastics process of rates of, 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 setting up system for strategies for, 4.1, 4.2 transportation costs and, 4.1, 4.2 traveling and waste hierarchy and, 3.1, 4.1, 4.2 Reducing, 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 Resorts Restaurants Restrooms, public Reusing, 3.1, 3.2 Rhythm method Ribbon Ricotta cheese Rope S St.

pages: 199 words: 57,599

Secrets of the Millionaire Mind by T. Harv Eker

Buckminster Fuller, Build a better mousetrap, Donald Trump, fear of failure, high net worth, Maui Hawaii, Parkinson's law, passive income

That’s why their ride is fast, smooth, direct, and relatively easy. By the way, I use the analogy of a bus because once you are successful, your goal might be to bring others along on the ride with you. Poor and most middle-class people play the money game on one wheel only. They believe that the only way to get rich is to earn a lot of money. They believe that only because they’ve never been there. They don’t understand Parkinson’s Law, which states, “Expenses will always rise in direct proportion to income.” Here’s what’s normal in our society. You have a car, you make more money, and you get a better car. You have a house, you make more money, and you get a bigger house. You have clothes, you make more money, and you get nicer clothes. You have holidays, you make more money, and you spend more on holidays. Of course there are a few exceptions to this rule…very few!

Necessities Account need negative energy negativity negotiations network marketing net worth determining four factors of tracking of vs. working income net worth factors net worth objective Nita, Sean nonempowering thoughts, see disempowering thoughts not-doing habits nurturing obstacles One Minute Millionaire, The (Hansen and Allen) opportunities opportunity zone optimism outer laws of money outer world overspending parental influences Parkinson’s Law partners passive income through “business working for you,” through “money working for you,” vs. working income passive-income streams peace Peak Potentials Training people pleasers percentage personal characteristics of the wealthy see also individual characteristics personal growth continuing nonsupportive influences on in problem solving in retaining wealth personal histories personal service businesses personal success coaches perspective of “either/or” vs.

pages: 272 words: 66,985

Hyperfocus: How to Be More Productive in a World of Distraction by Chris Bailey

"side hustle", Albert Einstein, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Cal Newport, Chuck Templeton: OpenTable:, Clayton Christensen, correlation does not imply causation, deliberate practice, functional fixedness, game design, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Parkinson's law, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Skype, twin studies, Zipcar

Outside of questioning individual tasks, it’s also worth reflecting on how challenging you find your workload in general. The tactics in Hyperfocus will allow you to accomplish more in less time, but you may then find you don’t have enough work remaining to fill that extra time. This can manifest itself in some odd ways. Our work tends to expand to fit the available completion time—in productivity circles, this phenomenon is known as Parkinson’s law. But by disabling distractions in advance, you may find the same thing I did: your work no longer expands to fit the time you have available for its completion, and you discover how much work you truly have on your plate. Some executives I coach find they’re able to accomplish a full day’s work in just a few hours when they focus on only their most consequential tasks. I discovered this phenomenon firsthand with my last book.

., 43 brain and, 43–44 costs of, 43–47 with habits, 32–33 stress and, 73–74 women vs. men in, 75n music, 104–7, 203n nature, 163 Nature, 152 necessary work, 20–22, 34, 59 negative self-talk, 30 Newport, Cal, 82 Newton, Isaac, 176 Nicklaus, Jack, 167 nighttime ritual, 168 noise-cancelling headphones, 83, 106 novelty bias, 41, 42, 136–38 numbers, 26 office, 104 cleanliness of, 101n, 103–4 getting out of, 84–85 open-plan, 210–12 temperature of, 104–5 whiteboard in, 61, 103 open loops, 107–8, 112, 144–45, 173 Parkinson’s law, 114 Partridge, Dale, 85–86 past, in mind wandering, 137–40, 167, 203 pens and highlighters, 10–11 People Over Profit (Partridge), 85 personal concerns, 112 worries, 19, 108, 112 personal life, hyperfocus and, 123–25 phone, 31, 41, 42, 43, 45, 55, 88, 100–102, 136 apps on, 91 being deliberate about use of, 89–92 breaks and, 76, 90, 149 disconnecting from, 2–3, 7–8 do not disturb mode on, 83, 89, 90–91 “Mindless” folder on, 91 mindless loop and, 18–19 notifications on, 45, 88–89, 94–95 paying attention to when you reach for, 8 second, for distractions, 91 socializing and, 100n, 149 swapping with friend, 90 phone conversations, overhearing, 106 plants, 103 pleasure, 136–37, 148 dopamine and, 41–42, 186–87, 202 Poldrack, Russell, 44 positive thinking, 201 present, in mind wandering, 137–40, 167 problem solving, 213 scatterfocus and, 143, 145–47, 178–79, 198 sleep and, 179 writing out the problem in, 178 procrastination, 4, 18, 21, 71, 85, 99, 116 productive tasks, 20, 21, 34, 37 productivity, 7, 18, 31, 44, 59, 169, 171 constraints and, 70 defining, 42 music and, 105 novelty and, 41 sleep and, 166–68 switching attention and, 47 temperature and, 104–5 and working around your energy levels, 205–7 work-related interruptions and, 75 prospective bias, 140–41, 148 purposeful work, 20–22, 34, 59, 109–10 radio, 40 Ratatouille (film), 207 reading, 17–18, 34, 183–84, 188 active vs. passive involvement in, 10–11 attentional space and, 28–29 focus in, 7–11 mind wandering and, 17–18 sentence structure and, 29 short-form memory in, 29 texting while, 110 recharging, 125, 127, 142, 159–70, 212 frequency and length of breaks, 163–66 nature and, 163 need for, signs of, 159–61 rest, 159, 169–70 scatterfocus and, 159, 161 taking more refreshing breaks, 161–63 see also sleep relationships, 125 rest, 159, 169–70 rote tasks, 116, 206n Rule of 3, 60 scatterfocus, 129–30, 133–58, 202, 212, 215 aversion to, 135–38 brain and, 151, 167, 172, 198, 199, 206 capture mode in, 143, 144–45, 198 and collecting dots, 182–99 and connecting dots, 171–81 creativity and, 133, 134, 171–73, 199 cues and, 177 energy and, 206 entering, 134 environment and, 176–77 frequency of, 197, 212 as fun, 148 habitual, 143, 147–50, 157, 174–76, 178, 197–99, 212 hyperfocus and, 151–53, 200 information consumption and, 181 insight triggers and, 173–76 as intentional, 142–43 opportunities for, 198–99 problem solving and, 143, 145–47, 178–79, 198 recharging and, 159, 161 scheduling time to experiment with, 150–51 sleep and, 167, 179 styles of, 142–51 and writing out problems, 178 schedules and calendars, 60–61, 107–8 Schooler, Jonathan, 138, 142–43, 153 self-control and impulsiveness, 77–78, 85 self-talk, 30 sentence structure, 29 serendipity, 194 shower, taking, 18, 55, 133 mindfulness and, 120–22 sleep, 18, 159, 166–68, 169 attentional space and, 160 brain and, 167 memory and, 179 nighttime ritual for, 168 ninety-minute rule cycles in, 164–65 productivity and, 166–68 REM stage of, 179 scatterfocus and, 167, 179 Smallwood, Jonathan, 138, 142–43 smartphone, see phone social media, 59, 88, 116 Facebook, 74, 76, 77n, 141n Twitter, 15, 76, 77 spotlight effect, 54n Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace (film), 23 stimulation, 156–57 stress, 73–74, 111–12 email and, 96 studying, 44 see also reading tasks: attentional space and, 31–38 attractive, 20, 21 brain’s processing of, 33 complex, 34–35, 37–38, 112 complex, hyperfocus and, 54, 55, 70–71, 112 complex, increasing, 113–16 consequences and, 61–62 distracting, 20–22 externalizing, 107–8 four types of, 19–22 grid for, 20–22, 59–60 leaving unfinished intentionally, 180–81 maintenance, 32 mindless, 11, 34 multitasking, see multitasking necessary, 20–22, 34, 59 productive, 20, 21, 34, 37 resistance to, 77 rote, 116, 206n Rule of 3 and, 60–61 purposeful, 20–22, 34, 59, 109–10 unattractive, 20, 21, 57, 71 unnecessary, 20–22 tea and coffee, 10, 83, 85, 208–10 television, 40, 41, 42, 43, 57, 100, 101, 168, 190–91 temperature, 104–5 ten-thousand-hour rule, 196–97 This Is Your Brain on Music (Levitin), 196 threats, 136–37 time: hyperfocus and, 57, 68–69, 72, 127 not having, 127 work expanding to fill, 114–15 timer, 69–70 to-do lists, 61, 95, 107–8 Tolkien, J.

pages: 728 words: 182,850

Cooking for Geeks by Jeff Potter

3D printing, A Pattern Language, carbon footprint, centre right, Community Supported Agriculture, Computer Numeric Control, crowdsourcing, Donald Knuth, double helix,, European colonialism, fear of failure, food miles, functional fixedness, hacker house, haute cuisine, helicopter parent, Internet Archive, iterative process, Kickstarter, Parkinson's law, placebo effect, random walk, Rubik’s Cube, slashdot, stochastic process, the scientific method

Broken cheese graters, chipped glasses, cracked dishes—anything that can cause injury should it break while in use—should be fixed or replaced. (Dull knives count. Keep those knives sharp!) Should something break while you’re cooking and leave bits of glass or ceramic in your food, toss the whole dish out and order pizza. (Mmm, pizza: cheaper than a visit to the emergency room.) Note Parkinson’s Law: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Potter’s Corollary to Parkinson’s Law: Kitchen stuff expands so as to fill every last shelf and drawer. Kitchen stuff expands to fill all available space, and then some. Any time you introduce a new chop-o-whiza-matic to your kitchen, try to remove something that takes up a similar amount of space. If your kitchen is already crammed full of stuff and you find the idea of a marathon pruning session overwhelming, try doing your clean-out one cupboard at a time.

in recipes, Picking a Recipe organic foods, Seasonal Method Oskay, Windell, Making ice cream osmosis salt and, Salt sugar and, Sugar Ossau-Iraty (cheese), Seasonal Method oven overclocking, High-heat ovens and pizza oven spring, Yeast in breads Oven-Cooked Barbeque Ribs, Liquid Smoke: Distilled Smoke Vapor ovens calibrating using sugar, Approaching the Kitchen high-heat, Sous Vide Cooking, Blowtorches for crème brûlée improving recovery time, Approaching the Kitchen regulating heat, Approaching the Kitchen oxygen bacterial growth and, Foodborne Illness and Staying Safe FAT TOM acronym, Foodborne Illness and Staying Safe liquid nitrogen and, Dangers of liquid nitrogen yeast and, Yeast in beverages oxymyoglobin, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Bacteria oyster knife, Knives O’Reilly, Tim, Baking Powder P palate cleansers, Taste (Gustatory Sense) pan searing (see ) Slow-Cooked Short Ribs, 154°F / 68°C: Collagen (Type I) Denatures pancake recipes Buttermilk Pancakes, Baking Soda Pancakes, Picking a Recipe pans, heating, Reading Between the Lines papain (enzyme), 154°F / 68°C: Collagen (Type I) Denatures par-baking pizza, Pizza par-cooking, 310°F / 154°C: Maillard Reactions Become Noticeable parasites foodborne illnesses and, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Parasites freezing, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Parasites, Sous Vide Cooking pH levels and, Acids and Bases trichinosis and, Wet brining paring knife, Knives Parkinson’s Law, Kitchen Pruning parma torte, Regional/Traditional Method pasteurization defined, Foodborne Illness and Staying Safe eggs and, The 30-Minute Scrambled Egg food safety and, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Bacteria sous vide cooking and, Foodborne Illness and Sous Vide Cooking, Chicken and other poultry surface contamination and, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Bacteria pastry chefs, 356°F / 180°C: Sugar Begins to Caramelize Visibly, Whipped Cream, Playing with Chemicals A Pattern Language (Alexander), Uniform Storage Containers peanut allergies, Ingredients to avoid Pear Sorbet, Smell (Olfactory Sense) PEBKAC-type errors, Know your type pectin improving mouth-feel, Making Gels: Starches, Carrageenan, Agar, and Sodium Alginate making, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down making jam, Baking Powder starchy vegetables and, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down pepper grinders, Unitaskers pepperminty odor, Analytical Method perceptions, reasons for cooking, Functional Fixedness Perfumer’s Compendium (Allured), Analytical Method perishable foods, storage tips, Kitchen Equipment PFOA, Pots and pans pH scale about, Baking Soda, Acids and Bases food additives and, E Numbers: The Dewey Decimal System of Food Additives sodium citrate and, Making gels: Sodium alginate pickling, flash, Chocolate Pie Dough, Gluten pinch (as measurement), Bitter piperine, Combinations of Tastes and Smells pizza, Pizza high-heat ovens and, Blowtorches for crème brûlée Pizza Dough—No-Knead Method, Pizza Pizza Dough—Yeast-Free Method, Baking Powder pizza stones, Approaching the Kitchen, Yeast in breads, Pizza plasmolysis, Salt, Sugar plastic storage bags, Water heaters Playing with Fire and Water blog, Commercial Hardware and Techniques 1-p-methene-8-thiol, Smell (Olfactory Sense) Poached Pears in Red Wine, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down poaching, Sous Vide Cooking (see also ) Oven-Poached Eggs, The 30-Minute Scrambled Egg Poached Pears in Red Wine, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down Salmon Poached in Olive Oil, 104°F / 40°C and 122°F / 50°C: Proteins in Fish and Meat Begin to Denature polar bonds, Alcohol, Making Foams: Lecithin Pollan, Michael, A Few Words on Nutrition, Seasonal Method polymer fume fever, Pots and pans PolyScience, Making ice cream popcorn lung, Smell (Olfactory Sense) Popovers, Whipped Cream poppy seed bagels, Cooking for Others Pork Chops Stuffed with Cheddar Cheese and Poblano Peppers, Wet brining pork, trichinosis and, Wet brining portion control, A Few Words on Nutrition post-mortem proteolysis, 104°F / 40°C and 122°F / 50°C: Proteins in Fish and Meat Begin to Denature potassium bicarbonate, Baking Soda potatoes Roasted Potatoes with Garlic and Rosemary, Seasonal Method Rosemary Mashed Potatoes, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down Skillet Fried Potatoes, 310°F / 154°C: Maillard Reactions Become Noticeable pots and pans, Cutting boards acidity in foods and, Reading Between the Lines, Pots and pans buttering, Adapt and Experiment Method cladded metals, Pots and pans hanging up, Counter Layout hot spots, Pots and pans organizing, Kitchen Organization splatter guards, Bar towels thermal conductivity of, Pots and pans, Methods of Heat Transfer types of, Cutting boards, Kitchen Pruning Potter’s Corollary to Parkinson’s Law, Kitchen Pruning Poulette Sauce, Adapt and Experiment Method poultry (see ) Powdered Brown Butter, "Melts" in your mouth: Maltodextrin Powell, Doug, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Parasites Pralus, George, Sous Vide Cooking prepping ingredients, Calibrating Your Instruments, Thermometers and timers preserving foods Lime Marmalade, Sugar Preserved Lemons, Wet brining with salt, Traditional Cooking Chemicals, Dry brining, Wet brining with sugar, Sugar pressure cooking, Convection, 310°F / 154°C: Maillard Reactions Become Noticeable, Stock, broth, and consommé probe thermometer, Avoid PEBKAC-type errors: RTFR!

in recipes, Picking a Recipe organic foods, Seasonal Method Oskay, Windell, Making ice cream osmosis salt and, Salt sugar and, Sugar Ossau-Iraty (cheese), Seasonal Method oven overclocking, High-heat ovens and pizza oven spring, Yeast in breads Oven-Cooked Barbeque Ribs, Liquid Smoke: Distilled Smoke Vapor ovens calibrating using sugar, Approaching the Kitchen high-heat, Sous Vide Cooking, Blowtorches for crème brûlée improving recovery time, Approaching the Kitchen regulating heat, Approaching the Kitchen oxygen bacterial growth and, Foodborne Illness and Staying Safe FAT TOM acronym, Foodborne Illness and Staying Safe liquid nitrogen and, Dangers of liquid nitrogen yeast and, Yeast in beverages oxymyoglobin, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Bacteria oyster knife, Knives O’Reilly, Tim, Baking Powder P palate cleansers, Taste (Gustatory Sense) pan searing (see ) Slow-Cooked Short Ribs, 154°F / 68°C: Collagen (Type I) Denatures pancake recipes Buttermilk Pancakes, Baking Soda Pancakes, Picking a Recipe pans, heating, Reading Between the Lines papain (enzyme), 154°F / 68°C: Collagen (Type I) Denatures par-baking pizza, Pizza par-cooking, 310°F / 154°C: Maillard Reactions Become Noticeable parasites foodborne illnesses and, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Parasites freezing, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Parasites, Sous Vide Cooking pH levels and, Acids and Bases trichinosis and, Wet brining paring knife, Knives Parkinson’s Law, Kitchen Pruning parma torte, Regional/Traditional Method pasteurization defined, Foodborne Illness and Staying Safe eggs and, The 30-Minute Scrambled Egg food safety and, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Bacteria sous vide cooking and, Foodborne Illness and Sous Vide Cooking, Chicken and other poultry surface contamination and, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Bacteria pastry chefs, 356°F / 180°C: Sugar Begins to Caramelize Visibly, Whipped Cream, Playing with Chemicals A Pattern Language (Alexander), Uniform Storage Containers peanut allergies, Ingredients to avoid Pear Sorbet, Smell (Olfactory Sense) PEBKAC-type errors, Know your type pectin improving mouth-feel, Making Gels: Starches, Carrageenan, Agar, and Sodium Alginate making, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down making jam, Baking Powder starchy vegetables and, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down pepper grinders, Unitaskers pepperminty odor, Analytical Method perceptions, reasons for cooking, Functional Fixedness Perfumer’s Compendium (Allured), Analytical Method perishable foods, storage tips, Kitchen Equipment PFOA, Pots and pans pH scale about, Baking Soda, Acids and Bases food additives and, E Numbers: The Dewey Decimal System of Food Additives sodium citrate and, Making gels: Sodium alginate pickling, flash, Chocolate Pie Dough, Gluten pinch (as measurement), Bitter piperine, Combinations of Tastes and Smells pizza, Pizza high-heat ovens and, Blowtorches for crème brûlée Pizza Dough—No-Knead Method, Pizza Pizza Dough—Yeast-Free Method, Baking Powder pizza stones, Approaching the Kitchen, Yeast in breads, Pizza plasmolysis, Salt, Sugar plastic storage bags, Water heaters Playing with Fire and Water blog, Commercial Hardware and Techniques 1-p-methene-8-thiol, Smell (Olfactory Sense) Poached Pears in Red Wine, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down poaching, Sous Vide Cooking (see also ) Oven-Poached Eggs, The 30-Minute Scrambled Egg Poached Pears in Red Wine, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down Salmon Poached in Olive Oil, 104°F / 40°C and 122°F / 50°C: Proteins in Fish and Meat Begin to Denature polar bonds, Alcohol, Making Foams: Lecithin Pollan, Michael, A Few Words on Nutrition, Seasonal Method polymer fume fever, Pots and pans PolyScience, Making ice cream popcorn lung, Smell (Olfactory Sense) Popovers, Whipped Cream poppy seed bagels, Cooking for Others Pork Chops Stuffed with Cheddar Cheese and Poblano Peppers, Wet brining pork, trichinosis and, Wet brining portion control, A Few Words on Nutrition post-mortem proteolysis, 104°F / 40°C and 122°F / 50°C: Proteins in Fish and Meat Begin to Denature potassium bicarbonate, Baking Soda potatoes Roasted Potatoes with Garlic and Rosemary, Seasonal Method Rosemary Mashed Potatoes, 158°F / 70°C: Vegetable Starches Break Down Skillet Fried Potatoes, 310°F / 154°C: Maillard Reactions Become Noticeable pots and pans, Cutting boards acidity in foods and, Reading Between the Lines, Pots and pans buttering, Adapt and Experiment Method cladded metals, Pots and pans hanging up, Counter Layout hot spots, Pots and pans organizing, Kitchen Organization splatter guards, Bar towels thermal conductivity of, Pots and pans, Methods of Heat Transfer types of, Cutting boards, Kitchen Pruning Potter’s Corollary to Parkinson’s Law, Kitchen Pruning Poulette Sauce, Adapt and Experiment Method poultry (see ) Powdered Brown Butter, "Melts" in your mouth: Maltodextrin Powell, Doug, How to Prevent Foodborne Illness Caused by Parasites Pralus, George, Sous Vide Cooking prepping ingredients, Calibrating Your Instruments, Thermometers and timers preserving foods Lime Marmalade, Sugar Preserved Lemons, Wet brining with salt, Traditional Cooking Chemicals, Dry brining, Wet brining with sugar, Sugar pressure cooking, Convection, 310°F / 154°C: Maillard Reactions Become Noticeable, Stock, broth, and consommé probe thermometer, Avoid PEBKAC-type errors: RTFR!

pages: 287 words: 81,014

The Charisma Myth: How Anyone Can Master the Art and Science of Personal Magnetism by Olivia Fox Cabane

airport security, cognitive dissonance, Elon Musk,, hedonic treadmill, Lao Tzu, Nelson Mandela, Parkinson's law, Peter Thiel, placebo effect, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, social intelligence, Steve Jobs

Conjure a few different scenarios that would induce you into a more useful mental state. Of course, the most useful alternate reality is not necessarily the most pleasant. When my publishers gave me a year to write the book you’re now holding, I wanted to progress as efficiently as possible, avoiding the procrastination pitfalls that ensnare so many first-time authors. One author friend reminded me of a maxim called Parkinson’s Law: “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” He challenged me: “Rather than letting the writing process fill the entire year, try to write the entire book in one month. At the end of a month, what you have will certainly not be a finished book, but it’ll be more than you would have without this self-imposed deadline.” This seemed sensible, so I decided to give it a try.

., 101, 112 Kipling, Rudyard, 118 Kosslyn, Stephen, 68 Krauss, Stephen, 70 Langer, Ellen, 25 language, 20, 136, 144, 186 Lao Tzu, 24 “lasts,” 177 leadership, 2, 3 compassion needed for, 83 Leahy, Robert, 32 lectures, 139–40 left frontal lobes, 88 life, enjoying, 17–18 limbic resonance, 146 Lincoln, Abraham, 74, 136 listening, 14, 17, 26, 100, 128–31, 142, 184, 231, 232, 241 Little Prince, The (Saint-Exupéry), 185 logic, 144, 163 lovable book, 90 love at first sight, 153 Lowndes, Leil, 185 Lurie, Bob, 40 Madonna, 98 Mao Zedong, 112, 220 marketing, 169 Martinez, Angel, 83 meditation, 12, 15, 16, 18, 45 meetings, 72–73, 96–97 memory cards, 189–90 mental discomfort, 31–41, 43, 44, 65 metaphors, 189, 190, 233 Method acting, 12, 68 Metta, 87–90, 239–40 Michelangelo, 27 microexpressions, 22, 182 mindfulness discipline, 15, 45 Mindful Path to Self-Compassion, The (Germer), 87 mindset shift, 15–16, 224 mind wandering, 16 mirror, 155 mirror neurons, 145 Miss Piggy, 92–93 MIT, 73 MIT Media Lab, 20, 126, 140 moms, 3 Monitor Group, 40 Monroe, Marilyn, 1, 4 Multiple Sclerosis Association, 203 Muppet Show, The, 92–93 music, 70–71, 95, 96, 174 Musk, Elon, 98–99 Mussolini, Benito, 104, 220 Napoleon I, Emperor of the French, 74, 201, 204 narcissism, 85 neediness, 75 Neff, Kristin, 86 negative associations, 131–34, 142 negativity, 37, 38–39, 40, 42, 46 neutralizing, 47–51, 58, 59, 65, 66, 202, 236 suppressing, 52 negativity bias, 48–49 negotiations, 100, 130 NeuroLeadership Institute, 38 neuronal connections, 68 neuroscience, 11 Newman, Paul, 68 New Scholars, 147–49 New York Times, 188 Ney, Marshal, 204 Nicklaus, Jack, 67 nocebo effect, 25–26 nodding, 10, 106, 149, 160, 161, 162, 164 numbers, 189–90 Obama, Barack, 109 Ochsner, Kevin, 22n OfficeMax, 184 Onassis, Aristotle, 153–54 open-ended questions, 123 Oracle, 119 oscillators, 146 outgoing personalities, 10 owning the stage, 193–94 oxytocin, 73, 170, 198 Paramount Equity, 109, 215 Parkinson’s Law, 55 patience, 100, 103 pauses, 10, 106, 130–31, 141, 234 pausing, 129 in presentations, 196–97 Pavlov, Ivan, 132 PayPal, 98 Penn, Sean, 68 performance, 53, 58 performance review, 174 Perot, Ross, 216 Persia, 132 personality, 10, 107–10, 113 personal magnetism, 6 personal space, 150–53 Peter Pan, 71 phenylethylamine (PEA), 153 phones, 183–85, 186 physical discomfort, 28–31, 42, 43, 59, 65, 66 physicians, 3 pictures, 136–39, 142 pitch, 140 placebo effect, 25, 26, 36, 55, 74 Play-Doh, 173–74 posture, 21, 91, 97, 147, 149, 150, 156–63, 164 authority charisma and, 106 in presentations, 198 Powell, Colin, 5, 104, 112 power, 5, 6, 13, 18–20, 21, 26, 27, 31, 67, 94, 100, 130, 139, 142, 162, 191, 224, 229–30, 231, 234 praise, 207–11 presence, 5–6, 12, 13–18, 26, 27, 31, 63, 129, 142, 154, 224, 229–30, 235 anxiety and, 32 appearance of, 191 body language and, 21 focus charisma and, 100, 231 techniques for, 15 presentations, 7, 72, 187–200, 215, 232, 233–34 charismatic message in, 188–90 colors at, 191 mid-course corrections, 197–99 Q&As at, 190 rehearsals of, 192–93 supporting points in, 189 warmth in, 194–95 Rao, Srikumar, 53n rationalization, 170–71, 186 reality: mind’s view of, 47–49, 50 rewriting, 51, 52–58, 59–60, 65, 66, 202, 236–37 reassurance, 161, 162, 164 resentment, 57, 58, 75, 130, 207–11 resilience, 64–65 responsibility, 210 responsibility transfer, 34–37, 42, 45, 60, 100, 202, 235–36 Rice, Condoleezza, 5 Riggio, Ronald, 143–44 Rock, David, 38 Rocky III, 71 role-playing, 96 romance, 2, 174 Rome, 120 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 136, 194 Saint-Exupéry, Antoine de, 185 sarcasm, 56 satisfaction, 58, 237 Schiro, Tom, 83 Schnabel, Arthur, 130 seating choices, 152–53, 242 Seinfeld, Jerry, 192, 193 self-acceptance, 85 self-compassion, 84–90, 103, 181, 239 self-confidence, 84, 85–86, 94–95 self-consciousness, 199 self-criticism, 38–39, 40, 42, 50, 86–87, 90 self-doubt, 39–41, 42, 43 self-esteem, 84–85, 94–95 self-evaluation, 85 self-warmth, 84 separation distress, 154 shame, 45–46, 50, 90 Sicilienne, The, 196 Sinatra, Frank, 198, 216 situations, 107, 110–13 smiling, 24, 141–42, 184 social comparison, 85 Social Intelligence, 146 social situations, 3 social skills, 23 social smile, 22 soft focus, 155 sounds, 15, 235 Southwest Airlines, 146 space, 158–59 speaking, 131–39, 142, 241 see also presentations Stalin, Joseph, 104, 220 Stanford Business School, 40 Stanford University, 157, 159 statistics, 189–90 status, 134, 160, 232 authority charisma and, 104–7, 231 stories, 189, 190, 233 Streep, Meryl, 68 stress, 2, 38, 41, 52, 53, 154–55 visualization and, 71 stress hormones, 38, 52, 170 stress system, 170, 174, 202 students, 3 suicide, 73 sympathy, 82 Tan, Chade-Meng, 45–46 teachers, 116 technical skills, 23 tempo, 140, 141, 142 tension, 59–60, 61 Teresa, Mother, 88, 112 Tesla Motors, 98–99 Texas, University of, 116 Thatcher, Margaret, 112 Thich Nhat Hanh, 44 threat response, 38 tone, 140 apologies and, 181 criticism and, 179 Tonight Show, The, 192 Top Gun, 71 traffic, 56 true smile, 24 trust, 2, 152 uncertainty, 32–37, 42, 101, 167 Uslan, Michael, 40 Vangelis, 71 vision, 203–5, 231, 234 visionary, 210 visionary charisma, 98, 101–2, 103, 107, 108, 109, 110, 112, 136, 167, 231 visualization, 67–74, 96, 231, 238 body language and, 68, 69, 73, 97 of funeral, 78–79, 83 of goodwill, 81 of historical counselors, 74 of invisible angel wings, 81, 158, 171, 174, 194 kindness charisma and, 103 before meetings, 72–73 of Metta, 88–89 for phone calls and e-mails, 183 practice for, 69 before presentations, 72 voice, 21, 139–42, 182 volume, 140–41, 193–94 vulnerability, 216–18, 221, 243 Walmart, 198 Walton, Sam, 198, 216 warming up, 93–97, 103, 172 warmth, 5, 6, 13, 18–20, 26, 27, 67, 74, 81, 92, 94, 97, 101, 106, 109, 123, 130, 139, 142, 150, 155, 156, 158, 161, 162, 163, 164, 172, 176, 182, 224, 229–30, 231, 232 anxiety and, 32 body language and, 21, 234 criticism and, 179 focus charisma and, 100 handshakes and, 121 kindness charisma and, 102–4, 231 on phone, 185 in presentations, 191, 194–95, 197 self-, 84 vocal, 141–42 Weiss, Alan, 144 white knights, 120 Williams, Redford, 170 willpower, 94 Winfrey, Oprah, 75, 108, 109, 110–11 Wise Brain Bulletin, 73 Wiseman Institute, 80 worst-case scenario, 50, 51 writing, 54, 56, 57

pages: 320 words: 86,372

Mythology of Work: How Capitalism Persists Despite Itself by Peter Fleming

1960s counterculture, anti-work, call centre, clockwatching, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, David Graeber, Etonian, future of work, G4S, Goldman Sachs: Vampire Squid, illegal immigration, Kitchen Debate, late capitalism, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, market fundamentalism, means of production, neoliberal agenda, Parkinson's law, post-industrial society, post-work, profit maximization, profit motive, quantitative easing, Results Only Work Environment, shareholder value, social intelligence, The Chicago School, transaction costs, wealth creators, working poor

They even suggest that organizations ought to design their offices after warehouse apartments, to mimic the creativity, comradery and ethos of people driven by a labour of love. But workplace informality has a dark side; namely, the potential for authoritarianism to take on a rather sadistic and perverse quality. Informality and power do not go well together. Under such circumstances we are not only paying for the elite’s freedoms, but being callously toyed with to boot. Hence Jez’s rancour. And herein lies the problem with anti-work arguments that evoke Parkinson’s Law. The idea behind the law is simple. If we are given eight hours to perform a task, it usually takes eight hours to do so successfully. If we are only given three hours to do the same task, it typically takes three hours to do so successfully. Therefore, we could spend much less time on the job whilst maintaining the same level of productivity achieved by the 40-hour work week. But there is hitch with this rationale.

capitalism ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 General Motors plant (Michigan) ref1 Goffee, R. ref1 Goldman Sachs ref1 The Good Soldier Svejk (Hasek) ref1 Gordon, D. ref1 Gorz, A. ref1, ref2 Graeber, D. ref1 Groundhog Day (Ramis) ref1 Guattari, F. ref1, ref2, ref3 on criticism/criticality ref1 and de-subjectification ref1 language ref1, ref2 Gujarat NRE ref1 Gulf of Mexico oil spill (2010) ref1 Hamper, B. ref1 Hanlon, G. ref1 Hardt, M. ref1 Hart, A. ref1 Harvard Business Review (HBR) ref1 Harvey, D. ref1, ref2 Hayek, F. ref1, ref2, ref3 health and safety ref1, ref2 ‘Help to Buy’ support scheme ref1 Hirschhorn, N. ref1 Hodgkinson, T. ref1 holiday policy ref1 Houellebecq, Michel ref1, ref2, ref3 human capital ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7 human relations movement ref1 Human Resource Management (HRM) ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6 humour ref1 ‘I, Job’ function ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6 and biopower ref1, ref2 and death drive ref1, ref2 as escape into work ref1 and illness ref1, ref2, ref3 resisting ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6 see also escape; totality refusal see also work, as all-encompassing; working hours illegal immigrants, deportations ref1 illness ref1, ref2 collective ref1, ref2 see also Social Patients’ Collective as desirable experience ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 of managers ref1, ref2 and productive power ref1, ref2 as weapon against capitalism ref1 ‘immersion room’ exercise ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 imperceptibility ref1 see also invisibility incentivization ref1 indexation process ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 informality and authoritarianism ref1, ref2 see also deformalization insecurity ref1 Institute of Leadership and Management (ILM) ref1, ref2, ref3 invisibility ref1, ref2 ‘Invisible Committee’ ref1, ref2 Italian autonomist thought ref1, ref2 Jameson, F. ref1 Jones, G. ref1 Junjie, Li ref1 Kamp, A. ref1 Kein Mensch ist illegal ref1 Kellaway, L. ref1 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) ref1 Keynes, J.M. ref1, ref2 Khrushchev, Nikita ref1, ref2 Kim, Jonathan ref1 King, Stephen ref1 ‘Kitchen Debate’ ref1 Kramer, M. ref1, ref2 labour unions ref1 dissolution of ref1, ref2 language, evolution of ref1 Larkin, P. ref1 Latour, B. ref1, ref2 Laval, C. ref1, ref2 Lazzarato, M. ref1, ref2 leaders backgrounds ref1 remuneration and bonuses ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 see also managers Lefebvre, H. ref1 Leidner, R. ref1 Lewin, D. ref1 liberation management ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 life itself, enlisting ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 lines of flight ref1, ref2 Lordon, F. ref1, ref2, ref3 Lucas, R. ref1, ref2 Lukács, G. ref1 Lynch, R. ref1 McChesney, R. ref1 McGregor, D. ref1 management ref1, ref2 and class function ref1, ref2 as co-ordination ref1 and inducement of willing obedience ref1, ref2 information deficit ref1 and power ref1, ref2 self-justification rituals ref1 as transferable skill ref1, ref2 managerialism ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7 and abandonment ideology ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 and boundary management ref1 and conflict-seeking behaviour ref1 division between managers and managed ref1, ref2 general principles of ref1 and leadership ref1 profligate management function ref1 refusing ref1 and securitization ref1 as self-referential abstraction ref1 managers as abandonment enablers ref1, ref2 and deformalization ref1 and engagement of workers ref1, ref2 lack of practical experience ref1 overwork ref1, ref2 see also leaders Marcuse, H. ref1 Market Basket supermarket chain ref1 Marx, K. ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6 Maslow, A. ref1 Matten, D. ref1 meat consumption ref1 Meek, J. ref1 Meyerson, D. ref1 Michelli, J. ref1 Miller, W.I. ref1 Mitchell, David ref1 mobile technology ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7 Modafinil ref1, ref2 Monaghan, A. ref1 money ref1, ref2 see also accumulation Mooney, G. ref1 Moore, A.E. ref1 Moore, Michael ref1, ref2 music industry ref1 Naidoo, Kumi ref1 NASA ref1 Natali, Vincenzo ref1 Negri, A. ref1, ref2 neoliberal capitalism ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7 and bureaucracy ref1 and ideal worker ref1, ref2 and non-work time ref1, ref2 and paranoia ref1, ref2 resisting ref1, ref2 see also post-labour strategy and threat of abandonment ref1, ref2 and truth telling ref1, ref2, ref3 neoliberalism ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6 and class relations ref1, ref2, ref3 and disciplinary power ref1 and human-capital theory ref1 and impossibility ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6 and micro-fascism ref1 and reign of technocrats ref1 role of state ref1 and truth telling ref1, ref2 and worker engagement ref1, ref2, ref3 Nestlé ref1 New Public Management ref1, ref2 New Zealand, and capitalist deregulation ref1 New Zealand Oil and Gas (NZOG) ref1 Newman, Maurice ref1 Nietzsche, Friedrich ref1, ref2 Nixon, Richard ref1, ref2 Nyhan, B. ref1 obsession ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7, ref8 Onionhead program ref1 overcoding ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7 The Pain Journal (Flanagan) ref1, ref2, ref3 paranoia ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 overwork/paranoia complex ref1, ref2 Paris Commune ref1, ref2 Parkinson’s Law ref1 Parnet, C. ref1 Parsons, T. ref1 Peep Show (TV comedy) ref1 pensions ref1, ref2 personnel management ref1 see also Human Resource Management Peters, T. ref1 Philip Morris ref1 Pike River Coal mine (New Zealand) ref1 Pollack, Sydney ref1 Pook, L. ref1 Porter, M. ref1, ref2 post-labour strategy, recommendations ref1 postmodernism ref1, ref2, ref3 power ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 and truth telling ref1 Prasad, M. ref1 Price, S. ref1 private companies, transferring to public hands ref1 privatization ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7 profit maximization ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 quantitative easing ref1 Rand, Ayn ref1 rationalization ref1, ref2, ref3 Reifler, J. ref1 reserve army of the unemployed ref1 Ressler, C. ref1 results-only work environment (ROWE) ref1, ref2, ref3 Rimbaud, A. ref1 Rio+20 Earth Summit (2012) ref1 ‘riot grrrl’ bands ref1 rituals of truth and reconciliation ref1 Roberts, J. ref1 Roger Award ref1 Roger and Me (Moore) ref1 Rosenblatt, R. ref1 Ross, A. ref1, ref2 Ross, K. ref1 Rudd, Kevin ref1 ruling class fear of work-free world ref1, ref2 and paranoia ref1, ref2 Sade, Marquis de ref1 Sallaz, J. ref1 Saurashtra Fuels ref1 Scarry, E. ref1 Securicor (G4S) ref1 Segarra, Carmen ref1 self-abnegation ref1 self-employment ref1 self-management ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 self-preservation ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 self-sufficiency ref1, ref2, ref3 shareholder capitalism ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 shift work ref1, ref2 see also working hours Shragai, N. ref1 sleep and circadian rhythms ref1 as form of resistance ref1 working in ref1, ref2, ref3 smart drugs ref1, ref2 Smith, Roger ref1 smoking and addiction ref1 dangers of ref1, ref2 scientific research ref1 sociability ref1, ref2 ‘the social’ ref1, ref2 social factory ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7 and structure of work ref1 social media ref1 Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission ref1 Social Patients’ Collective (SPK) ref1, ref2, ref3 social surplus (commons) ref1, ref2, ref3 socialism ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4 Sontag, S. ref1 Spicer, A. ref1 stakeholder management ref1, ref2 Starbucks ref1 state, theory of ref1 subcontracting ref1, ref2, ref3 subsidization ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5, ref6, ref7 suicide as act of refusal ref1 Freud’s definition ref1 work-related ref1, ref2, ref3, ref4, ref5 surplus labour ref1, ref2 surplus living wage ref1 ‘tagged’ employees ref1 ‘tagged’ prisoner ref1 Tally, Richard ref1 taxation ref1, ref2, ref3 Taylor, F.W. ref1 Taylor, S. ref1 Taylorism ref1 technological progress, and emancipation from labour ref1 Thatcher, Margaret ref1 Thatcherism ref1 They Shoot Horses Don’t They?

pages: 836 words: 158,284

The 4-Hour Body: An Uncommon Guide to Rapid Fat-Loss, Incredible Sex, and Becoming Superhuman by Timothy Ferriss

23andMe, airport security, Albert Einstein, Black Swan, Buckminster Fuller, carbon footprint, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, correlation does not imply causation, Dean Kamen, game design, Gary Taubes, index card, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, life extension, lifelogging, Mahatma Gandhi, microbiome, p-value, Parkinson's law, Paul Buchheit, placebo effect, Productivity paradox, publish or perish, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, stem cell, Steve Jobs, survivorship bias, Thorstein Veblen, Vilfredo Pareto, wage slave, William of Occam

YouBar Custom Protein Bars ( Custom design your own protein bars with YouBar, which allows you to choose protein type and dozens of add-ons like cashew butter, chia seeds, goji berries, and much more. Anyone can have their own branded (you choose the label type) protein-on-the-go for a minimum of 12 bars. For my preferred mix, search for the “Training 33” bar. Parkinson’s Law by Cyril Northcote Parkinson ( This is the seminal book on Parkinson’s Law, written by Parkinson himself. Everyone you meet will want to tell you how to train and eat. Read this hysterical book to cultivate your selective ignorance of these “bike shed” discussions, which will derail more than help. Biceps are a male obsession. This usually leads to throwing everything and the kitchen sink at them. In reality, to build large and vascular biceps, there is no need to do isolated arm work.

Nutrition Data nuts: Brazil nuts, 22.1, 46.1, 46.2 and cholesterol overeating and testosterone as travel snack O Obama, Michelle obesity, 9.1, 9.2 observer effect Occam’s Protocol adapting the program cardio frequency objective of, 18.1, 18.2 Occam’s feeding, 17.1, 18.1 Occam’s frequency Occam’s prescriptions questions and criticisms slower gains starting weights Occam’s Razor ofuro oil, rancid oligosaccharides OneTaste, 20.1, 20.2, 20.3, 20.4 oral contraceptives orange juice orgasm: and bad science clitoral glans and clitoris, 20.1, 20.2 definition of Doing Method, 20.1, 20.2, 20.3 facilitation of female focused repetition for and grounding and g-spot, 19.1, 20.1 guidelines for beginners and masturbation, 19.1, 20.1 positions practice and how-to precondition the quest questions about vibrator for O’Rourke, Dara Ottey, Merlene Joyce oversimplification Owen (monkey) oxygen-assisted static apnea Ozolin, Nikolay P Pagan, Eben PAGG warnings about Paleolithic “paleo” diet palmitoleic acid Palumbo, Dave “Jumbo,” 150, 13.1, 17.1 Parazynski, Scott Pareto, Vilfredo Pareto’s Law Parisi, Bill Parkinson’s Law partial completeness Paul (testosterone) Pavlina, Steve PC (phosphocreatine) PC (pubococcygeus) muscle Pearl, Bill pear shape peer pressure Penn, B. J. periodization Perls, Tom Phelps, Michael pheromones Phillips, Bill phlebotomy phosphocreatine (PC) phosphoric acid photos, before/after, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3 Picasso, Pablo placebo effect, 29.1, 42.1, 44.1 platelet-rich plasma (PRP) Plato, Peggy, 3.1, 16.1 Plese, Elliott plyometrics Polanyi, John policosanol, 10.1, 10.2 Poliquin, Charles, 16.1, 17.1, 22.1, 25.1, 46.1 Pollan, Michael, 43.1, 48.1 polysomnograms poo, weighing pork belly Portland Marathon Pose Method, 30.1, 30.2, 31.1 potassium Pottenger, Francis M.

pages: 370 words: 111,129

Inglorious Empire: What the British Did to India by Shashi Tharoor

affirmative action, barriers to entry, Boris Johnson, British Empire, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, corporate raider, deindustrialization, European colonialism, global village, informal economy, joint-stock company, land tenure, liberal capitalism, Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, night-watchman state, Parkinson's law, trade route

‘Of all human conditions, perhaps the most brilliant’: Dalrymple, ‘The East India Company’. The British charges against the rulers they overthrew: Hyndman: Report on India, 1907, Ruin of India by British, pp. 513–533. ‘partly to amaze the indigenes, partly to fortify’: Jan Morris, Farewell the Trumpets: An Imperial Retreat, London: Faber & Faber, 1978. Years later, the management theorist C. Northcote Parkinson: C. Northcote Parkinson, Parkinson’s Law: The Pursuit of Progress, London: John Murray, 1958. reflected what the British writer David Cannadine dubbed ‘Ornamentalism’: David Cannadine, Ornamentalism: How the British Saw Their Empire, London: Allen Lane, 2001. ‘frivolous and sometimes vicious spendthrifts and idlers’: David Gilmour, Curzon: Imperial Statesman, New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2003. ‘neither Indian, nor civil, nor a service’: Jawaharlal Nehru, Glimpses of World History: Being Further Letters to his Daughter, London: Lindsay Drummond Ltd., 1949, p. 94.

Ó Gráda, Cormac, Eating People is Wrong, and Other Essays on Famine, its Past, and its Future, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015. Ozbudun, E. and Weiner, M. (eds), Competitive Elections in Developing Countries, Durham, NC: Duke University, 1987. Pandey, Gyanendra, The Construction of Communalism in Colonial North India, New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 1990. Parkinson, C. Northcote, Parkinson’s Law: The Pursuit of Progress, London, John Murray, 1958. Peers, D. M. and Gooptu, N. (eds), India and the British Empire, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012. Pernau, Margrit (ed.), Delhi College: Traditional Elites, the Colonial State and Education before 1857, New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2006. Pillai, Manu, The Ivory Throne, New Delhi: Harper Collins, 2015. Prasad, Amba, Indian Railways: A Study in Public Utility Administration, Bombay: Asia Publishing House, 1960.

When Computers Can Think: The Artificial Intelligence Singularity by Anthony Berglas, William Black, Samantha Thalind, Max Scratchmann, Michelle Estes

3D printing, AI winter, anthropic principle, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, augmented reality, Automated Insights, autonomous vehicles, availability heuristic, blue-collar work, brain emulation, call centre, cognitive bias, combinatorial explosion, computer vision, create, read, update, delete, cuban missile crisis, David Attenborough, Elon Musk,, epigenetics, Ernest Rutherford, factory automation, feminist movement, finite state, Flynn Effect, friendly AI, general-purpose programming language, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Gödel, Escher, Bach, industrial robot, Isaac Newton, job automation, John von Neumann, Law of Accelerating Returns, license plate recognition, Mahatma Gandhi, mandelbrot fractal, natural language processing, Parkinson's law, patent troll, patient HM, pattern recognition, phenotype, ransomware, Ray Kurzweil, self-driving car, semantic web, Silicon Valley, Singularitarianism, Skype, sorting algorithm, speech recognition, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, superintelligent machines, technological singularity, Thomas Malthus, Turing machine, Turing test, uranium enrichment, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons, zero day

Those primitive computers could perform thousands of calculations per second, and do the work of hundreds of junior engineers and clerks. Indeed, until that time a “computer” was somebody that computed things for a living, often using a mechanical adding machine or slide rule. There was much concern at the time that electronic computers would lead to mass white collar unemployment. Fortunately Parkinson’s law had already shown that bureaucratic work always grows to fill the time available, so the ever increasing needs of bureaucracies has prevented that prophecy from being realized. RK05 disk drive When this author was a student not all that long ago (he thinks), he was excited to be able to use a PDP11 computer that was a thousand times more powerful than those early machines and had the latest RK05 disk drive in it.

Given that the size of a bureaucracy is not related to its function, one might ask why the size of the tax office has remained between 1% and 2% of GDP for over fifty years, regardless of the technology available to it. Why not 0.2%, or 35.7%? The answer is that society could not tolerate a value much higher than 2% — we would be paying taxes just to fund the tax collection process. Below 1% is easily affordable, so the bureaucracy will naturally grow beyond that size as predicted by Parkinson. One effect of Parkinson’s law on the tax office is that the complexity of the tax act has grown several orders of magnitude. In 1955, it was a fairly simple system that was easy to understand which has now become the monster that every Australian needs to deal with. The political forces that created our current monster were present back in 1955, but their effect was limited by the inability of the preautomated bureaucracy to deal with a high level of complexity.

pages: 349 words: 134,041

Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives by Satyajit Das

accounting loophole / creative accounting, Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, beat the dealer, Black Swan, Black-Scholes formula, Bretton Woods, BRICs, Brownian motion, business process, buy and hold, buy low sell high, call centre, capital asset pricing model, collateralized debt obligation, commoditize, complexity theory, computerized trading, corporate governance, corporate raider, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, currency peg, disintermediation, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edward Thorp, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, Everything should be made as simple as possible, financial innovation, fixed income, Haight Ashbury, high net worth, implied volatility, index arbitrage, index card, index fund, interest rate derivative, interest rate swap, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, John Meriwether, locking in a profit, Long Term Capital Management, mandelbrot fractal, margin call, market bubble, Marshall McLuhan, mass affluent, mega-rich, merger arbitrage, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, money market fund, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Myron Scholes, new economy, New Journalism, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, oil shock, Parkinson's law, placebo effect, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, random walk, regulatory arbitrage, Right to Buy, risk-adjusted returns, risk/return, Satyajit Das, shareholder value, short selling, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, technology bubble, the medium is the message, the new new thing, time value of money, too big to fail, transaction costs, value at risk, Vanguard fund, volatility smile, yield curve, Yogi Berra, zero-coupon bond

People rarely abandon a cherished belief; a single explanation entirely colours their perception. They are more concerned about losses than gains, leading to frequently irrational decisions. A deep-rooted fear of poverty shapes my every financial decision. People frequently spend excessive time on small decisions and an inadequate amount on larger decisions. The time taken on a decision is inversely related to the amount of money spent – Parkinson’s Law. Large expenditures, say millions of dollars on a new computer system, are approved with minimal discussion. Small expenditures, whether chocolate biscuits should be served for coffee breaks, require endless discussions. Then, there is regret. People spend an inordinate amount of time crying over spilt milk, leading to more irrational decisions. Fascination with behavioural finance leads to some odd trading decisions.

However, the text is different. 6 ‘What Worries Warren’ (3 March 2003) Fortune. 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 4:44 pm Page 325 Index accounting rules 139, 221, 228, 257 Accounting Standards Board 33 accrual accounting 139 active fund management 111 actuaries 107–10, 205, 289 Advance Corporation Tax 242 agency business 123–4, 129 agency theory 117 airline profits 140–1 Alaska 319 Allen, Woody 20 Allied Irish Bank 143 Allied Lyons 98 alternative investment strategies 112, 308 American Express 291 analysts, role of 62–4 anchor effect 136 Anderson, Rolf 92–4 annuities 204–5 ANZ Bank 277 Aquinas, Thomas 137 arbitrage 33, 38–40, 99, 114, 137–8, 171–2, 245–8, 253–5, 290, 293–6 arbitration 307 Argentina 45 arithmophobia 177 ‘armpit theory’ 303 Armstrong World Industries 274 arrears assets 225 Ashanti Goldfields 97–8, 114 Asian financial crisis (1997) 4, 9, 44–5, 115, 144, 166, 172, 207, 235, 245, 252, 310, 319 asset consultants 115–17, 281 ‘asset growth’ strategy 255 asset swaps 230–2 assets under management (AUM) 113–4, 117 assignment of loans 267–8 AT&T 275 attribution of earnings 148 auditors 144 Australia 222–4, 254–5, 261–2 back office functions 65–6 back-to-back loans 35, 40 backwardation 96 Banca Popolare di Intra 298 Bank of America 298, 303 Bank of International Settlements 50–1, 281 Bank of Japan 220 Bankers’ Trust (BT) 59, 72, 101–2, 149, 217–18, 232, 268–71, 298, 301, 319 banking regulations 155, 159, 162, 164, 281, 286, 288 banking services 34; see also commercial banks; investment banks bankruptcy 276–7 Banque Paribas 37–8, 232 Barclays Bank 121–2, 297–8 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 326 4:44 pm Page 326 Index Baring, Peter 151 Baring Brothers 51, 143, 151–2, 155 ‘Basel 2’ proposal 159 basis risk 28, 42, 274 Bear Stearns 173 bearer eurodollar collateralized securities (BECS) 231–3 ‘behavioural finance’ 136 Berkshire Hathaway 19 Bermudan options 205, 227 Bernstein, Peter 167 binomial option pricing model 196 Bismarck, Otto von 108 Black, Fischer 22, 42, 160, 185, 189–90, 193, 195, 197, 209, 215 Black–Scholes formula for option pricing 22, 185, 194–5 Black–Scholes–Merton model 160, 189–93, 196–7 ‘black swan’ hypothesis 130 Blair, Tony 223 Bogle, John 116 Bohr, Niels 122 Bond, Sir John 148 ‘bond floor’ concept 251–4 bonding 75–6, 168, 181 bonuses 146–51, 244, 262, 284–5 Brady Commission 203 brand awareness and brand equity 124, 236 Brazil 302 Bretton Woods system 33 bribery 80, 303 British Sky Broadcasting (BSB) 247–8 Brittain, Alfred 72 broad index secured trust offerings (BISTROs) 284–5 brokers 69, 309 Brown, Robert 161 bubbles 210, 310, 319 Buconero 299 Buffet, Warren 12, 19–20, 50, 110–11, 136, 173, 246, 316 business process reorganization 72 business risk 159 Business Week 130 buy-backs 249 ‘call’ options 25, 90, 99, 101, 131, 190, 196 callable bonds 227–9, 256 capital asset pricing model (CAPM) 111 capital flow 30 capital guarantees 257–8 capital structure arbitrage 296 Capote, Truman 87 carbon trading 320 ‘carry cost’ model 188 ‘carry’ trades 131–3, 171 cash accounting 139 catastrophe bonds 212, 320 caveat emptor principle 27, 272 Cayman Islands 233–4 Cazenove (company) 152 CDO2 292 Cemex 249–50 chaos theory 209, 312 Chase Manhattan Bank 143, 299 Chicago Board Options Exchange 195 Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) 25–6, 34 chief risk officers 177 China 23–5, 276, 302–4 China Club, Hong Kong 318 Chinese walls 249, 261, 280 chrematophobia 177 Citibank and Citigroup 37–8, 43, 71, 79, 94, 134–5, 149, 174, 238–9 Citron, Robert 124–5, 212–17 client relationships 58–9 Clinton, Bill 223 Coats, Craig 168–9 collateral requirements 215–16 collateralized bond obligations (CBOs) 282 collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) 45, 282–99 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 4:44 pm Page 327 Index collateralized fund obligations (CFOs) 292 collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) 283–5, 288 commercial banks 265–7 commoditization 236 commodity collateralized obligations (CCOs) 292 commodity prices 304 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 255 compliance officers 65 computer systems 54, 155, 197–8 concentration risk 271, 287 conferences with clients 59 confidence levels 164 confidentiality 226 Conseco 279–80 contagion crises 291 contango 96 contingent conversion convertibles (co-cos) 257 contingent payment convertibles (co-pays) 257 Continental Illinois 34 ‘convergence’ trading 170 convertible bonds 250–60 correlations 163–6, 294–5; see also default correlations corruption 303 CORVUS 297 Cox, John 196–7 credit cycle 291 credit default swaps (CDSs) 271–84, 293, 299 credit derivatives 129, 150, 265–72, 282, 295, 299–300 Credit Derivatives Market Practices Committee 273, 275, 280–1 credit models 294, 296 credit ratings 256–7, 270, 287–8, 297–8, 304 credit reserves 140 credit risk 158, 265–74, 281–95, 299 327 credit spreads 114, 172–5, 296 Credit Suisse 70, 106, 167 credit trading 293–5 CRH Capital 309 critical events 164–6 Croesus 137 cross-ruffing 142 cubic splines 189 currency options 98, 218, 319 custom repackaged asset vehicles (CRAVEs) 233 daily earning at risk (DEAR) concept 160 Daiwa Bank 142 Daiwa Europe 277 Danish Oil and Natural Gas 296 data scrubbing 142 dealers, work of 87–8, 124–8, 133, 167, 206, 229–37, 262, 295–6; see also traders ‘death swap’ strategy 110 decentralization 72 decision-making, scientific 182 default correlations 270–1 defaults 277–9, 287, 291, 293, 296, 299 DEFCON scale 156–7 ‘Delta 1’ options 243 delta hedging 42, 200 Deming, W.E. 98, 101 Denmark 38 deregulation, financial 34 derivatives trading 5–6, 12–14, 18–72, 79, 88–9, 99–115, 123–31, 139–41, 150, 153, 155, 175, 184–9, 206–8, 211–14, 217–19, 230, 233, 257, 262–3, 307, 316, 319–20; see also equity derivatives Derman, Emmanuel 185, 198–9 Deutsche Bank 70, 104, 150, 247–8, 274, 277 devaluations 80–1, 89, 203–4, 319 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 4:44 pm Page 328 328 Index dilution of share capital 241 DINKs 313 Disney Corporation 91–8 diversification 72, 110–11, 166, 299 dividend yield 243 ‘Dr Evil’ trade 135 dollar premium 35 downsizing 73 Drexel Burnham Lambert (DBL) 282 dual currency bonds 220–3; see also reverse dual currency bonds earthquakes, bonds linked to 212 efficient markets hypothesis 22, 31, 111, 203 electronic trading 126–30, 134 ‘embeddos’ 218 emerging markets 3–4, 44, 115, 132–3, 142, 212, 226, 297 Enron 54, 142, 250, 298 enterprise risk management (ERM) 176 equity capital management 249 equity collateralized obligations (ECOs) 292 equity derivatives 241–2, 246–9, 257–62 equity index 137–8 equity investment, retail market in 258–9 equity investors’ risk 286–8 equity options 253–4 equity swaps 247–8 euro currency 171, 206, 237 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 297 European currency units 93 European Union 247–8 Exchange Rate Mechanism, European 204 exchangeable bonds 260 expatriate postings 81–2 expert witnesses 310–12 extrapolation 189, 205 extreme value theory 166 fads of management science 72–4 ‘fairway bonds’ 225 Fama, Eugene 22, 111, 194 ‘fat tail’ events 163–4 Federal Accounting Standards Board 266 Federal Home Loans Bank 213 Federal National Mortgage Association 213 Federal Reserve Bank 20, 173 Federal Reserve Board 132 ‘Ferraris’ 232 financial engineering 228, 230, 233, 249–50, 262, 269 Financial Services Authority (FSA), Japan 106, 238 Financial Services Authority (FSA), UK 15, 135 firewalls 235–6 firing of staff 84–5 First Interstate Ltd 34–5 ‘flat’ organizations 72 ‘flat’ positions 159 floaters 231–2; see also inverse floaters ‘flow’ trading 60–1, 129 Ford Motors 282, 296 forecasting 135–6, 190 forward contracts 24–33, 90, 97, 124, 131, 188 fugu fish 239 fund management 109–17, 286, 300 futures see forward contracts Galbraith, John Kenneth 121 gamma risk 200–2, 294 Gauss, Carl Friedrich 160–2 General Motors 279, 296 General Reinsurance 20 geometric Brownian motion (GBM) 161 Ghana 98 Gibson Greeting Cards 44 Glass-Steagall Act 34 gold borrowings 132 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 4:44 pm Page 329 Index gold sales 97, 137 Goldman Sachs 34, 71, 93, 150, 173, 185 ‘golfing holiday bonds’ 224 Greenspan, Alan 6, 9, 19–21, 29, 43, 47, 50, 53, 62, 132, 159, 170, 215, 223, 308 Greenwich NatWest 298 Gross, Bill 19 Guangdong International Trust and Investment Corporation (GITIC) 276–7 guaranteed annuity option (GAO) contracts 204–5 Gutenfreund, John 168–9 gyosei shido 106 Haghani, Victor 168 Hamanaka, Yasuo 142 Hamburgische Landesbank 297 Hammersmith and Fulham, London Borough of 66–7 ‘hara-kiri’ swaps 39 Hartley, L.P. 163 Hawkins, Greg 168 ‘heaven and hell’ bonds 218 hedge funds 44, 88–9, 113–14, 167, 170–5, 200–2, 206, 253–4, 262–3, 282, 292, 296, 300, 308–9 hedge ratio 264 hedging 24–8, 31, 38–42, 60, 87–100, 184, 195–200, 205–7, 214, 221, 229, 252, 269, 281, 293–4, 310 Heisenberg, Werner 122 ‘hell bonds’ 218 Herman, Clement (‘Crem’) 45–9, 77, 84, 309 Herodotus 137, 178 high net worth individuals (HNWIs) 237–8, 286 Hilibrand, Lawrence 168 Hill Samuel 231–2 329 The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy 189 Homer, Sidney 184 Hong Kong 9, 303–4 ‘hot tubbing’ 311–12 HSBC Bank 148 HSH Nordbank 297–8 Hudson, Kevin 102 Hufschmid, Hans 77–8 IBM 36, 218, 260 ICI 34 Iguchi, Toshihude 142 incubators 309 independent valuation 142 indexed currency option notes (ICONs) 218 India 302 Indonesia 5, 9, 19, 26, 55, 80–2, 105, 146, 219–20, 252, 305 initial public offerings 33, 64, 261 inside information and insider trading 133, 241, 248–9 insurance companies 107–10, 117, 119, 150, 192–3, 204–5, 221, 223, 282, 286, 300; see also reinsurance companies insurance law 272 Intel 260 intellectual property in financial products 226 Intercontinental Hotels Group (IHG) 285–6 International Accounting Standards 33 International Securities Market Association 106 International Swap Dealers Association (ISDA) 273, 275, 279, 281 Internet stock and the Internet boom 64, 112, 259, 261, 310, 319 interpolation of interest rates 141–2, 189 inverse floaters 46–51, 213–16, 225, 232–3 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 4:44 pm Page 330 330 Index investment banks 34–8, 62, 64, 67, 71, 127–8, 172, 198, 206, 216–17, 234, 265–7, 298, 309 investment managers 43–4 investment styles 111–14 irrational decisions 136 Italy 106–7 Ito’s Lemma 194 Japan 39, 43, 82–3, 92, 94, 98–9, 101, 106, 132, 142, 145–6, 157, 212, 217–25, 228, 269–70 Jensen, Michael 117 Jett, Joseph 143 JP Morgan (company) 72, 150, 152, 160, 162, 249–50, 268–9, 284–5, 299; see also Morgan Guaranty junk bonds 231, 279, 282, 291, 296–7 JWM Associates 175 Kahneman, Daniel 136 Kaplanis, Costas 174 Kassouf, Sheen 253 Kaufman, Henry 62 Kerkorian, Kirk 296 Keynes, J.M. 167, 175, 198 Keynesianism 5 Kidder Peabody 143 Kleinwort Benson 40 Korea 9, 226, 278 Kozeny, Viktor 121 Krasker, William 168 Kreiger, Andy 319 Kyoto Protocol 320 Lavin, Jack 102 law of large numbers 192 Leeson, Nick 51, 131, 143, 151 legal opinions 47, 219–20, 235, 273–4 Leibowitz, Martin 184 Leland, Hayne 42, 202 Lend Lease Corporation 261–2 leptokurtic conditions 163 leverage 31–2, 48–50, 54, 99, 102–3, 114, 131–2, 171–5, 213–14, 247, 270–3, 291, 295, 305, 308 Lewis, Kenneth 303 Lewis, Michael 77–8 life insurance 204–5 Lintner, John 111 liquidity options 175 liquidity risk 158, 173 litigation 297–8 Ljunggren, Bernt 38–40 London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) 6, 37 ‘long first coupon’ strategy 39 Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) 44, 51, 62, 77–8, 84, 114, 166–75, 187, 206, 210, 215–18, 263–4, 309–10 Long Term Credit Bank of Japan 94 LOR (company) 202 Louisiana Purchase 319 low exercise price options (LEPOs) 261 Maastricht Treaty and criteria 106–7 McLuhan, Marshall 134 McNamara, Robert 182 macro-economic indicators, derivatives linked to 319 Mahathir Mohammed 31 Malaysia 9 management consultants 72–3 Manchester United 152 mandatory convertibles 255 Marakanond, Rerngchai 302 margin calls 97–8, 175 ‘market neutral’ investment strategy 114 market risk 158, 173, 265 marketable eurodollar collateralized securities (MECS) 232 Markowitz, Harry 110 mark-to-market accounting 10, 100, 139–41, 145, 150, 174, 215–16, 228, 244, 266, 292, 295, 298 Marx, Groucho 24, 57, 67, 117, 308 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 4:44 pm Page 331 Index mathematics applied to financial instruments 209–10; see also ‘quants’ matrix structures 72 Meckling, Herbert 117 Melamed, Leo 34, 211 merchant banks 38 Meriwether, John 167–9, 172–5 Merrill Lynch 124, 150, 217, 232 Merton, Robert 22, 42, 168–70, 175, 185, 189–90, 193–7, 210 Messier, Marie 247 Metallgesellschaft 95–7 Mexico 44 mezzanine finance 285–8, 291–7 MG Refining and Marketing 95–8, 114 Microsoft 53 Mill, Stuart 130 Miller, Merton 22, 101, 194 Milliken, Michael 282 Ministry of Finance, Japan 222 misogyny 75–7 mis-selling 238, 297–8 Mitchell, Edison 70 Mitchell & Butler 275–6 models financial 42–3, 141–2, 163–4, 173–5, 181–4, 189, 198–9, 205–10 of business processes 73–5 see also credit models Modest, David 168 momentum investment 111 monetization 260–1 monopolies in financial trading 124 moral hazard 151, 280, 291 Morgan Guaranty 37–8, 221, 232 Morgan Stanley 76, 150 mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) 282–3 Moscow, City of 277 moves of staff between firms 150, 244 Mozer, Paul 169 Mullins, David 168–70 multi-skilling 73 331 Mumbai 3 Murdoch, Rupert 247 Nabisco 220 Napoleon 113 NASDAQ index 64, 112 Nash, Ogden 306 National Australia Bank 144, 178 National Rifle Association 29 NatWest Bank 144–5, 198 Niederhoffer, Victor 130 ‘Nero’ 7, 31, 45–9, 60, 77, 82–3, 88–9, 110, 118–19, 125, 128, 292 NERVA 297 New Zealand 319 Newman, Frank 104 news, financial 133–4 News Corporation 247 Newton, Isaac 162, 210 Nippon Credit Bank 106, 271 Nixon, Richard 33 Nomura Securities 218 normal distribution 160–3, 193, 199 Northern Electric 248 O’Brien, John 202 Occam, William 188 off-balance sheet transactions 32–3, 99, 234, 273, 282 ‘offsites’ 74–5 oil prices 30, 33, 89–90, 95–7 ‘omitted variable’ bias 209–10 operational risk 158, 176 opinion shopping 47 options 9, 21–2, 25–6, 32, 42, 90, 98, 124, 197, 229 pricing 185, 189–98, 202 Orange County 16, 44, 50, 124–57, 212–17, 232–3 orphan subsidiaries 234 over-the-counter (OTC) market 26, 34, 53, 95, 124, 126 overvaluation 64 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 4:44 pm Page 332 332 Index ‘overwhelming force’ strategy 134–5 Owen, Martin 145 ownership, ‘legal’ and ‘economic’ 247 parallel loans 35 pari-mutuel auction system 319 Parkinson’s Law 136 Parmalat 250, 298–9 Partnoy, Frank 87 pension funds 43, 108–10, 115, 204–5, 255 People’s Bank of China (PBOC) 276–7 Peters’ Principle 71 petrodollars 71 Pétrus (restaurant) 121 Philippines, the 9 phobophobia 177 Piga, Gustavo 106 PIMCO 19 Plaza Accord 38, 94, 99, 220 plutophobia 177 pollution quotas 320 ‘portable alpha’ strategy 115 portfolio insurance 112, 202–3, 294 power reverse dual currency (PRDC) bonds 226–30 PowerPoint 75 preferred exchangeable resettable listed shares (PERLS) 255 presentations of business models 75 to clients 57, 185 prime brokerage 309 Prince, Charles 238 privatization 205 privity of contract 273 Proctor & Gamble (P&G) 44, 101–4, 155, 298, 301 product disclosure statements (PDSs) 48–9 profit smoothing 140 ‘programme’ issuers 234–5 proprietary (‘prop’) trading 60, 62, 64, 130, 174, 254 publicly available information (PAI) 277 ‘puff’ effect 148 purchasing power parity theory 92 ‘put’ options 90, 131, 256 ‘quants’ 183–9, 198, 208, 294 Raabe, Matthew 217 Ramsay, Gordon 121 range notes 225 real estate 91, 219 regulatory arbitrage 33 reinsurance companies 288–9 ‘relative value’ trading 131, 170–1, 310 Reliance Insurance 91–2 repackaging (‘repack’) business 230–6, 282, 290 replication in option pricing 195–9, 202 dynamic 200 research provided to clients 58, 62–4, 184 reserves, use of 140 reset preference shares 254–7 restructuring of loans 279–81 retail equity products 258–9 reverse convertibles 258–9 reverse dual currency bonds 223–30 ‘revolver’ loans 284–5 risk, financial, types of 158 risk adjusted return on capital (RAROC) 268, 290 risk conservation principle 229–30 risk management 65, 153–79, 184, 187, 201, 267 risk models 163–4, 173–5 riskless portfolios 196–7 RJ Reynolds (company) 220–1 rogue traders 176, 313–16 Rosenfield, Eric 168 Ross, Stephen 196–7, 202 Roth, Don 38 Rothschild, Mayer Amshel 267 Royal Bank of Scotland 298 Rubinstein, Mark 42, 196–7 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 4:44 pm Page 333 Index Rumsfeld, Donald 12, 134, 306 Rusnak, John 143 Russia 45, 80, 166, 172–3, 274, 302 sales staff 55–60, 64–5, 125, 129, 217 Salomon Brothers 20, 36, 54, 62, 167–9, 174, 184 Sandor, Richard 34 Sanford, Charles 72, 269 Sanford, Eugene 269 Schieffelin, Allison 76 Scholes, Myron 22, 42, 168–71, 175, 185, 189–90, 193–7, 263–4 Seagram Group 247 Securities and Exchange Commission, US 64, 304 Securities and Futures Authority, UK 249 securitization 282–90 ‘security design’ 254–7 self-regulation 155 sex discrimination 76 share options 250–1 Sharpe, William 111 short selling 30–1, 114 Singapore 9 single-tranche CDOs 293–4, 299 ‘Sisters of Perpetual Ecstasy’ 234 SITCOMs 313 Six Continents (6C) 275–6 ‘smile’ effect 145 ‘snake’ currency system 203 ‘softing’ arrangements 117 Solon 137 Soros, George 44, 130, 253, 318–19 South Sea Bubble 210 special purpose asset repackaging companies (SPARCs) 233 special purpose vehicles (SPVs) 231–4, 282–6, 290, 293 speculation 29–31, 42, 67, 87, 108, 130 ‘spinning’ 64 333 Spitzer, Eliot 64 spread 41, 103; see also credit spreads stack hedges 96 Stamenson, Michael 124–5 standard deviation 161, 193, 195, 199 Steinberg, Sol 91 stock market booms 258, 260 stock market crashes 42–3, 168, 203, 257, 259, 319 straddles or strangles 131 strategy in banking 70 stress testing 164–6 stripping of convertible bonds 253–4 structured investment products 44, 112, 115, 118, 128, 211–39, 298 structured note asset packages (SNAPs) 233 Stuart SC 18, 307, 316–18 Styblo Bleder, Tanya 153 Suharto, Thojib 81–2 Sumitomo Corporation 100, 142 Sun Tzu 61 Svensk Exportkredit (SEK) 38–9 swaps 5–10, 26, 35–40, 107, 188, 211; see also equity swaps ‘swaptions’ 205–6 Swiss Bank Corporation (SBC) 248–9 Swiss banks 108, 305 ‘Swiss cheese theory’ 176 synthetic securitization 284–5, 288–90 systemic risk 151 Takeover Panel 248–9 Taleb, Nassim 130, 136, 167 target redemption notes 225–6 tax and tax credits 171, 242–7, 260–3 Taylor, Frederick 98, 101 team-building exercises 76 team moves 149 technical analysis 60–1, 135 television programmes about money 53, 62–3 Thailand 9, 80, 302–5 13_INDEX.QXD 17/2/06 4:44 pm Page 334 334 Index Thatcher, Margaret 205 Thorp, Edward 253 tobashi trades 105–7 Tokyo Disneyland 92, 212 top managers 72–3 total return swaps 246–8, 269 tracking error 138 traders in financial products 59–65, 129–31, 135–6, 140, 148, 151, 168, 185–6, 198; see also dealers trading limits 42, 157, 201 trading rooms 53–4, 64, 68, 75–7, 184–7, 208 Trafalgar House 248 tranching 286–9, 292, 296 transparency 26, 117, 126, 129–30, 310 Treynor, Jack 111 trust investment enhanced return securities (TIERS) 216, 233 trust obligation participating securities (TOPS) 232 TXU Europe 279 UBS Global Asset Management 110, 150, 263–4, 274 uncertainty principle 122–3 unique selling propositions 118 unit trusts 109 university education 187 unspecified fund obligations (UFOs) 292 ‘upfronting’ of income 139, 151 Valéry, Paul 163 valuation 64, 142–6 value at risk (VAR) concept 160–7, 173 value investing 111 Vanguard 116 vanity bonds 230 variance 161 Vietnam War 182, 195 Virgin Islands 233–4 Vivendi 247–8 volatility of bond prices 197 of interest rates 144–5 of share prices 161–8, 172–5, 192–3, 199 Volcker, Paul 20, 33 ‘warehouses’ 40–2, 139 warrants arbitrage 99–101 weather, bonds linked to 212, 320 Weatherstone, Dennis 72, 268 Weil, Gotscal & Manges 298 Weill, Sandy 174 Westdeutsche Genosenschafts Zentralbank 143 Westminster Group 34–5 Westpac 261–2 Wheat, Allen 70, 72, 106, 167 Wojniflower, Albert 62 World Bank 4, 36, 38 World Food Programme 320 Worldcom 250, 298 Wriston, Walter 71 WTI (West Texas Intermediate) contracts 28–30 yield curves 103, 188–9, 213, 215 yield enhancement 112, 213, 269 ‘yield hogs’ 43 zaiteku 98–101, 104–5 zero coupon bonds 221–2, 257–8

pages: 225 words: 54,010

A Short History of Progress by Ronald Wright

Albert Einstein, Atahualpa, Bretton Woods, British Empire, clean water, Columbian Exchange, cuban missile crisis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Haber-Bosch Process, Hernando de Soto, invention of agriculture, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, nuclear winter, out of africa, Parkinson's law, Ronald Reagan, Thomas Malthus, urban sprawl

Average life expectancy in ancient Rome was only nineteen or twenty years — much lower than in Neolithic Çatal Hüyük,23 but slightly better than in Britain’s Black Country, evoked so vividly by Dickens, where the average fell to seventeen or eighteen.24 Without a constant inflow of soldiers, slaves, merchants, and hopeful migrants, neither ancient Rome nor Georgian London could have kept its numbers up. Rome had several serious pandemics, possibly of Asian origin. While these caused manpower and fiscal problems, they may also have postponed the empire’s decline by relieving pressure on the land. Explanations for Rome’s fall run the gamut — plagues, lead poisoning, mad emperors, corruption, barbarians, Christianity — and Joseph Tainter, in his book on social collapses, has added Parkinson’s Law. Complex systems, he argues, inevitably succumb to diminishing returns. Even if other things remain equal, the costs of running and defending an empire eventually grow so burdensome that it becomes more efficient to throw off the whole imperial superstructure and revert to local forms of organization. By the time of Constantine, the imperial standing army was more than half a million men, an enormous drain on a treasury whose revenue depended mainly on agriculture, especially as many great landowners had been granted tax exemptions.

pages: 176 words: 54,784

The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck: A Counterintuitive Approach to Living a Good Life by Mark Manson

false memory syndrome, fear of failure, hedonic treadmill, iterative process, Parkinson's law, Rubik’s Cube

Before we can look at our values and prioritizations and change them into better, healthier ones, we must first become uncertain of our current values. We must intellectually strip them away, see their faults and biases, see how they don’t fit in with much of the rest of the world, to stare our own ignorance in the face and concede, because our own ignorance is greater than us all. Manson’s Law of Avoidance Chances are you’ve heard some form of Parkinson’s law: “Work expands so as to fill up the time available for its completion.” You’ve also undoubtedly heard of Murphy’s law: “Whatever can go wrong will go wrong.” Well, next time you’re at a swanky cocktail party and you want to impress somebody, try dropping Manson’s law of avoidance on them: The more something threatens your identity, the more you will avoid it. That means the more something threatens to change how you view yourself, how successful/unsuccessful you believe yourself to be, how well you see yourself living up to your values, the more you will avoid ever getting around to doing it.

pages: 243 words: 59,662

Free to Focus: A Total Productivity System to Achieve More by Doing Less by Michael Hyatt

"side hustle", Atul Gawande, Cal Newport, Checklist Manifesto, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Frederick Winslow Taylor, informal economy, invention of the telegraph, Jeff Bezos, job automation, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Parkinson's law, remote working, Steve Jobs, zero-sum game

I arrive at the office by around 9:00 a.m., and I quit for the day by 6:00 p.m. Factoring an hour for lunch and a nap in the middle of the day, that is a forty-hour workweek. With the lessons we’ll cover in the next chapter, you’ll see that’s plenty to accomplish my key goals and projects. When will you start and when will you finish? Setting limits on your workday is foundational to productivity. We know from Parkinson’s Law that work expands to fill the available time; the lesson for us is that we must limit the availability or it will balloon into the early morning and late evenings. Suddenly you’re skipping breakfast and eating takeout at your desk at 7:30 p.m., and as we know from the research on overwork, there’s no payoff for those extra hours. Rejuvenation. I reserve the last several hours of the day for rejuvenation, which includes spending time with my family, friends, and hobbies.

pages: 282 words: 69,481

Road to ruin: an introduction to sprawl and how to cure it by Dom Nozzi

business climate, car-free, Jane Jacobs, New Urbanism, Parkinson's law, place-making, Ray Oldenburg, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, skinny streets, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Great Good Place, transit-oriented development, urban decay, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, zero-sum game

In the long run, generated traffic can consume from 50 to 90 percent of added capacity due to road widenings.17 The Southern California Association of Governments estimated some years back that even if a state car club realized its desire to have 19 new expressways built in southern California, traffic in 20 years will still move at an average speed of 25 mph, less than the current speed of 31 mph.18 Widening roads bumps into “Parkinson’s Law of Traffic: Traffic expands to fill the available road space.”19 Moore and Thorsnes make the point that “no rational concert promoter would decide how big to build a stadium based on the number of people who would come to see the Grateful Dead if the tickets were free. But that is often how transportation planners decide how [big to build a road]: they estimate how many trips would be made on an unpriced [free] facility, then try to build a [road] big enough to accommodate that number of trips.”20 Often, we justify the “need” for wider roads by pointing to gas savings and air emissions reductions.

pages: 411 words: 80,925

What's Mine Is Yours: How Collaborative Consumption Is Changing the Way We Live by Rachel Botsman, Roo Rogers

Airbnb, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, bike sharing scheme, Buckminster Fuller, buy and hold, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, commoditize, Community Supported Agriculture, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, dematerialisation, disintermediation,, experimental economics, George Akerlof, global village, hedonic treadmill, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, information retrieval, iterative process, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, late fees, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, Menlo Park, Network effects, new economy, new new economy, out of africa, Parkinson's law, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, peer-to-peer rental, Ponzi scheme, pre–internet, recommendation engine, RFID, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, Simon Kuznets, Skype, slashdot, smart grid, South of Market, San Francisco, Stewart Brand, The Nature of the Firm, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thorstein Veblen, Torches of Freedom, transaction costs, traveling salesman, ultimatum game, Victor Gruen, web of trust, women in the workforce, Zipcar

By the early 1990s, American families had, on average, twice as many possessions as they did twenty-five years earlier.32 So much stuff has been bought that it doesn’t fit into our homes anymore, and so we rent storage to extend the capacity to own more things. Just as Cyril Northcote Parkinson, a British civil servant, mused in the Economist in 1955 that “Work expands so as to fill the time available for completion,” many of us fall victim to Parkinson’s Law when it comes to storage: more space increases our tendency to acquire more stuff. Just as plastic migrates to the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, these things get stored away, out-of-sight, out-of-mind. If you’ve ever traveled from an airport into a city, say London or New York, and noticed the abundance of self-storage warehouses along the route, you begin to see the extent of the problem. These buildings sit on the sides of orbital highways, sprout from the landscape of suburbia, or are wedged into commercial strips in a city’s central core.

pages: 252 words: 80,636

Bureaucracy by David Graeber

a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, airport security, Albert Einstein, banking crisis, barriers to entry, borderless world, Bretton Woods, British Empire, collateralized debt obligation, Columbine, conceptual framework, Corn Laws, David Graeber, George Gilder, High speed trading, hiring and firing, Kitchen Debate, late capitalism, means of production, music of the spheres, new economy, obamacare, Occupy movement, Parkinson's law, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, post-work, price mechanism, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, transcontinental railway, union organizing, urban planning, zero-sum game

v3.1 Contents Cover Other Books by This Author Title Page Copyright Introduction The Iron Law of Liberalism and the Era of Total Bureaucratization 1 Dead Zones of the Imagination An Essay on Structural Stupidity 2 Of Flying Cars and the Declining Rate of Profit 3 The Utopia of Rules, or Why We Really Love Bureaucracy After All Appendix On Batman and the Problem of Constituent Power Notes Introduction The Iron Law of Liberalism and the Era of Total Bureaucratization Nowadays, nobody talks much about bureaucracy. But in the middle of the last century, particularly in the late sixties and early seventies, the word was everywhere. There were sociological tomes with grandiose titles like A General Theory of Bureaucracy,1 The Politics of Bureaucracy,2 or even The Bureaucratization of the World,3 and popular paperback screeds with titles like Parkinson’s Law,4 The Peter Principle,5 or Bureaucrats: How to Annoy Them.6 There were Kafkaesque novels, and satirical films. Everyone seemed to feel that the foibles and absurdities of bureaucratic life and bureaucratic procedures were one of the defining features of modern existence, and as such, eminently worth discussing. But since the seventies, there has been a peculiar falling off. Consider, for example, the following table, which diagrams how frequently the word “bureaucracy” appears in books written in English over the last century and a half.

pages: 309 words: 85,584

Nine Crises: Fifty Years of Covering the British Economy From Devaluation to Brexit by William Keegan

banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Boris Johnson, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, congestion charging, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Etonian, eurozone crisis, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, financial thriller, floating exchange rates, full employment, gig economy, inflation targeting, Just-in-time delivery, light touch regulation, liquidity trap, Martin Wolf, moral hazard, negative equity, Neil Kinnock, non-tariff barriers, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, oil shock, Parkinson's law, Paul Samuelson, pre–internet, price mechanism, quantitative easing, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, short selling, South Sea Bubble, The Chicago School, transaction costs, tulip mania, Winter of Discontent, Yom Kippur War

Sir John subsequently became a television star with a programme that involved visiting British companies and telling them in no uncertain terms what they were doing wrong. He never went to university himself but relished becoming Chancellor of Bradford University. He once told me that the greatest influence on his career had been ‘Professor Parkinson’. It was Professor C. Northcote Parkinson – an eminently memorable name – who went down in history with Parkinson’s Law: ‘Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.’ Unfortunately, the Thatcher government, while ostensibly obsessed with the work ethic, became past masters in pursuing economic policies that put millions of people out of work. In its early days I was invited to meet the Secretary of State for Employment, Jim Prior, in his office opposite St James’s Park Station. Over a gin and tonic, Jim, a prominent member of the Cabinet, asked me, ‘What on earth is this government up to?’

pages: 297 words: 93,882

Winning Now, Winning Later by David M. Cote

activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, Asian financial crisis, business cycle, business process, hiring and firing, Internet of things, Parkinson's law, Paul Samuelson, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Steve Jobs, Toyota Production System, trickle-down economics

“BRING-UP NOTES” AND BLUE NOTEBOOKS To minimize the number of follow-up meetings required to resolve issues, and thus maximize the time on your calendar for thinking, I recommend ending every meeting by establishing the who, what, and when of any follow-up actions. Just because a team reaches consensus on an issue doesn’t mean a decision will actually be implemented. Be clear what the follow-up action is, and when it comes to the “who,” never accept “the team” as an answer. You want the name of someone who will stay awake nights to make sure the required work gets done. On “when,” remember Parkinson’s law, which says that work expands to fill the time allotted. Don’t be afraid to create tight timelines, because sometimes the culture demands them. In one instance, I asked a finance person when they could perform a task for me. Clearly not used to being asked, the person responded, “Two weeks.” Pointing to my watch, I said, “What time today?” The task was handed in by 5:00 P.M. that day. Sometimes organizations get used to telling time with calendars instead of watches, and it has to stop.

pages: 308 words: 98,729

Garbage Land: On the Secret Trail of Trash by Elizabeth Royte

clean water, low earth orbit, Maui Hawaii, Norman Mailer, Parkinson's law, RAND corporation, Silicon Valley, thinkpad, upwardly mobile, working poor

I considered buying a composter for all the food waste, or at least the coffee grounds, which coated everything in the kitchen bag. But I didn’t have a garden in which to use the finished product, and cultivating rotting food outside my brownstone would surely alienate my neighbors. Or so I thought at the time. As the Garbage Project discovered, “Garbage expands so as to fill the receptacles available for its containment.” (Project researchers called this Parkinson’s Law of Garbage, after the original law formulated by C. Northcote Parkinson, a British civil servant based in Singapore: “Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.”) My house had one trash can in the kitchen, a tiny one in the bathroom, and two more in bedrooms. By making it easy to toss things away, was I was abetting garbage mindlessness? It’s hard to imagine, but 125 years ago the kitchen trash can didn’t exist.

pages: 300 words: 99,432

Godforsaken Sea by Derek Lundy

British Empire, Charles Lindbergh, Parkinson's law, the scientific method, William Langewiesche, Winter of Discontent

It would restrict the chances of disaster to the realm of freaky luck: a rogue wave; an invisible flaw in the rigging; a slip overboard off a slick, icy deck; an unseen growler ripping its way through the lightweight inch-thick hull. The skippers and their support teams swarmed the boats, trying to reach the purely theoretical end of the list of things to do before the imminent start. It is an axiom of long-distance sailboat racing (a kind of nautical Parkinson’s Law) that the amount of work left to do always exceeds the time available in which to do it. There is always something else to attach to the boat, gear to stow, food to pack away, electronic devices to program. Weaknesses that had turned up here and there in the course of qualifying sails or sea trials—in a block (the pulleys on board a boat that assist in handling lines) or a sail, perhaps even in the structural solidity of the boat—still needed attending.

pages: 446 words: 102,421

Network Security Through Data Analysis: Building Situational Awareness by Michael S Collins

business process, cloud computing, create, read, update, delete, Firefox, general-purpose programming language, index card, Internet Archive, inventory management, iterative process, p-value, Parkinson's law, peer-to-peer, slashdot, statistical model, zero day

The second way is to reduce the time an analyst needs to process an alert by fetching additional information, providing context, and identifying courses of action. There are no perfect rules to this process. For example, although it’s always a good (and necessary) goal to minimize false positives, analysts will take a more nuanced approach to this problem. For example, if there’s a temporary risk of a nasty attack, an analyst will often tolerate a higher false positive rate in order to more effectively defend against that attack. There’s a sort of Parkinson’s Law problem here. All of our detection and monitoring systems provide only partial coverage because the Internet is weird, and we don’t really have a good grasp of what we’re missing. As any floor improves its detection process, it will find that there are newer and nastier alerts to consider. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld: we do have a problem with unknown unknowns. This problem of unknown unknowns makes false negatives a particular headache.

pages: 379 words: 118,576

On Her Majesty's Nuclear Service by Eric Thompson

amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics, Berlin Wall, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, Etonian, Fall of the Berlin Wall, friendly fire, Kickstarter, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Parkinson's law, Winter of Discontent, Yom Kippur War, young professional

I was joining the Dartmouth Training Squadron to discover the harsh realities of life at sea. To record the experience, I had to keep a journal. Journal: ‘One thing is immediately apparent; the ship is being manned by dockyard mateys and sailors. The sailors work hard and take pride in the ship while the dockyard mateys spend their days drinking tea, reading newspapers, playing cards and watching the sailors work. It is no coincidence that Parkinson’s Law – Work expands to fill the time available – was first observed in a Royal Dockyard. Professor Parkinson was an Admiralty Civil Servant.’ Mentor’s comment: This page is for sketches. Journal: ‘A British sailor is a man of whom the country can be proud. On the treatment of him: 1. Remember he is a human being living under difficult conditions. 2. Always make time to listen to his suggestions or troubles. 3.

pages: 426 words: 115,150

Your Money or Your Life: 9 Steps to Transforming Your Relationship With Money and Achieving Financial Independence: Revised and Updated for the 21st Century by Vicki Robin, Joe Dominguez, Monique Tilford

asset allocation, Buckminster Fuller, buy low sell high, credit crunch, disintermediation, diversification, diversified portfolio, fiat currency, financial independence, fixed income, fudge factor, full employment, Gordon Gekko, high net worth, index card, index fund, job satisfaction, Menlo Park, money market fund, Parkinson's law, passive income, passive investing, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Bolles, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, software patent, strikebreaker, Thorstein Veblen, Vanguard fund, zero-coupon bond

We’re not saying you should buy only things that are on your premeditated shopping list (although that isn’t such a bad idea for compulsive shoppers); we are saying that you must be scrupulously honest when you’re out and about. Saying, “I anticipate needing this,” as you’re drooling over a left-handed veeblefitzer or cashmere sweater is not the same as having already anticipated needing one and recognizing that this particular one is a bargain. Remember the corollary to Parkinson’s Law (“The work expands to fit the time allowed for its completion”): “Needs expand to encompass whatever you want to buy on impulse.” 7. Research Value, Quality, Durability, Multiple Use and Price Research your purchases. The print and online editions of Consumer Reports and other Web sites and publications give excellent evaluations and comparisons of almost everything you might buy—and they can be fun just to read.

Construction Project Management by S. Keoki Sears

8-hour work day, active measures, air freight, inventory management, Parkinson's law, supply-chain management, zero day

There is almost certainly a degree of activity overlap that is not represented in the Critical Path Method (CPM) diagram. Nor is the job logic truly as rigid as it is made out to be. Craft workers are shifted about from one activity to another as they are needed. The daily fluctuations shown in Chart 8.2 for laborers will not really occur during the construction period. A relatively stable labor crew of five or six workers will be on hand throughout the job. A form of Parkinson’s Law, which says that work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion, takes effect, and every worker is kept busy, even when more laborers are present on a given day than Chart 8.2 indicates actually would be needed. Manpower leveling, using present‐day algorithms, is a trial‐and‐error process and is made difficult by the fact that most activities use more than one labor classification as well as different types of equipment.

Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into Values by Robert M. Pirsig

Albert Einstein, always be closing, Henri Poincaré, Isaac Newton, Lao Tzu, Parkinson's law, the scientific method

As he was testing hypothesis number one by experimental method a flood of other hypotheses would come to mind, and as he was testing these, some more came to mind, and as he was testing these, still more came to mind until it became painfully evident that as he continued testing hypotheses and eliminating them or confirming them their number did not decrease. It actually increased as he went along. At first he found it amusing. He coined a law intended to have the humor of a Parkinson’s law that “The number of rational hypotheses that can explain any given phenomenon is infinite.” It pleased him never to run out of hypotheses. Even when his experimental work seemed dead-end in every conceivable way, he knew that if he just sat down and muddled about it long enough, sure enough, another hypothesis would come along. And it always did. It was only months after he had coined the law that he began to have some doubts about the humor or benefits of it.

pages: 407 words: 135,242

The Streets Were Paved With Gold by Ken Auletta

British Empire, business climate, clean water, collective bargaining, full employment, Gunnar Myrdal, hiring and firing, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, mortgage debt, Norman Mailer, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, Parkinson's law, Ponzi scheme, price stability, profit motive, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, rent control, Ronald Reagan, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, union organizing, Upton Sinclair, upwardly mobile, urban decay, urban renewal, War on Poverty, working-age population

In these cases, the allocation of our dwindling resources is seriously skewed by federal policies contrary to local needs. Obviously, it’s not just Nixon’s fault. The mood of the country shifted—Nixon did, after all, carry every state but one in 1972. Much of the federal spending was wasteful, and the public wised up. And, one suspects, federal spending could have soared and New York would still be in trouble because local spending would have tried to keep pace. Parkinson’s law—work expands to fill available space—has its home in New York. In this sense, New York, not just Nixon, is to blame. New York refused to adjust to the new nogrowth federal reality. And, as we will see, it did not adjust to the reality of its own declining economy. Ignoring the City’s Economy “How would you like to be remembered?” I once asked Alfred Eisenpreis, Mayor Beame’s first Economic Development Administrator.

pages: 1,007 words: 181,911

The 4-Hour Chef: The Simple Path to Cooking Like a Pro, Learning Anything, and Living the Good Life by Timothy Ferriss

Airbnb, Atul Gawande, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, deliberate practice,, Golden Gate Park, happiness index / gross national happiness, haute cuisine, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, Isaac Newton, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, Loma Prieta earthquake, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, Marc Andreessen, Mark Zuckerberg, Mason jar, microbiome, Parkinson's law, Paul Buchheit, Paul Graham, Pepto Bismol, Ponzi scheme, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Silicon Valley, Skype, spaced repetition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, the High Line, Y Combinator

Johanne Killeen remembers, “They found it impossible to believe that anything wonderful could result from four ingredients!” THE HOLY GRAIL OF THE ONE-PAGER The easiest way to avoid being overwhelmed is to create positive constraints: put up walls that dramatically restrict whatever it is that you’re trying to do. In the world of work, a task will swell in complexity to fill the time you allot it, a phenomenon often referred to as Parkinson’s Law. How does so much get done just before you leave for holidays? All the items lingering on your to-do list for weeks or months? It’s the power of the clear and imminent deadline. Though vastly simplified, in the world of cooking, Le Chatelier’s Principle is invoked to remember that a gas will expand to fill the size of its container. So…all we have to do is create a tiny container: the wonderful one-pager.

Theory of Games and Economic Behavior: 60th Anniversary Commemorative Edition (Princeton Classic Editions) by John von Neumann, Oskar Morgenstern

Albert Einstein, business cycle, collective bargaining, full employment, Isaac Newton, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, linear programming, Nash equilibrium, Parkinson's law, Paul Samuelson, profit motive, RAND corporation, the market place, zero-sum game

Von Neumann’s approach fails because it controverts a Great Natural Law, as follows: If you have to add numbers to get the answer to anything, you will never get it right. . . . . . Also, anything that has to have its square root taken is already in pretty shaky shape. You’d better discard it and go on to something else. . . . . . All life is governed by certain Great Natural Laws like the one—Parkinson’s Law, we think—which goes: “If you keep fooling around something, sooner or later it will come off.” The root Great Natural Law for successful predictions is as follows: Things which are caused by something are really caused by something else. Let us forecast what you will have for dinner. What are the causative factors? You have had ground beef for lunch. You do not much like ground beef, and the brown gravy on this was bad.

Robert Opposition of interest Optimality, permanent. See also Strategy Optimum Optimum behavior Order of society. See also Organization; Standards of behavior Ordering complete partial well Oreographical saddles Organization social, complexity of social and economic Origin (point in space) Outside source Overbids. See also Poker Parallelism of interests Pareto, V. Parkinson’s Law Parsons, Talcott Partial ordering. See also Ordering Participants Partition decomposition logistic interpretation Passes Passing, in poker Patience Pauli, Wolfgang Penny matching. See Matching Pennies Per absurdum proof Perfect competition Perfect recall Permutation cyclic Persian poetry Perturbations Peston, Maurice Physical sciences Physics Planning Plateau, rectangular Plausibility considerations Play actual course of individual identity of outcome of sequence of choices value of Player: chief chief, segregated composite defeated discriminated excluded fictitious found out indifferent isolated privileged segregated self-contained splitting the unprivileged victorious Players: interchanging of permutation of privileged group of removable sets of strategies of (see also Strategy) Playing appropriately Plays, set of all Poker bids in bluffing in draw poker general forms of good strategy in interpretation of the solutions mathematical description of all solutions as a model of strategy overbidding in passing in probabilities for hands in seeing solution strategy in stud poker Political science Popper, Karl Position Positive octant Positive quadrant Postulates.

pages: 872 words: 259,208

A History of Modern Britain by Andrew Marr

air freight, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, battle of ideas, Beeching cuts, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Geldof, Bretton Woods, British Empire, Brixton riot, clean water, collective bargaining, computer age, congestion charging, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Etonian, falling living standards, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, floating exchange rates, full employment, housing crisis, illegal immigration, Kickstarter, liberal capitalism, Live Aid, loadsamoney, market design, mass immigration, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, Neil Kinnock, Nelson Mandela, new economy, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, open borders, out of africa, Parkinson's law, Piper Alpha, Red Clydeside, reserve currency, Right to Buy, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, strikebreaker, upwardly mobile, Winter of Discontent, working poor, Yom Kippur War

The class who would do best out of the wartime changes was be the middle class, a fast growing minority. Government bureaucracy had grown hugely and would continue to do so. Labour’s Welfare State would require hundreds of thousands of new white-collar jobs, administering national insurance, teaching, running the health service. Even the Colonial Office vastly expanded its staff as the colonies disappeared, giving one of its officials, C. Northcote Parkinson, the idea for ‘Parkinson’s Law’ – that work expands to fill the time available. Studies of social mobility, such as the major one carried out in 1949, are notoriously crude and have to be taken with a pinch of salt. But they suggest that while working-class sons generally followed their fathers into similar jobs, there was much more variation among middle-class children. Labour might have intended to help the workers first, but education reform was helping more middle-class children get a good grammar school education.

pages: 331 words: 60,536

The Sovereign Individual: How to Survive and Thrive During the Collapse of the Welfare State by James Dale Davidson, Rees Mogg

affirmative action, agricultural Revolution, bank run, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, borderless world, British Empire, California gold rush, clean water, colonial rule, Columbine, compound rate of return, creative destruction, Danny Hillis, debt deflation, ending welfare as we know it, epigenetics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, falling living standards, feminist movement, financial independence, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, George Gilder, Hernando de Soto, illegal immigration, income inequality, informal economy, information retrieval, Isaac Newton, Kevin Kelly, market clearing, Martin Wolf, Menlo Park, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, new economy, New Urbanism, Norman Macrae, offshore financial centre, Parkinson's law, pattern recognition, phenotype, price mechanism, profit maximization, rent-seeking, reserve currency, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, Sam Peltzman, school vouchers, seigniorage, Silicon Valley, spice trade, statistical model, telepresence, The Nature of the Firm, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, Turing machine, union organizing, very high income, Vilfredo Pareto

., p.22. 11. van Creveld, op. ciL, p.52. 12. Huizinga, op. ciL, p.21. 316 13. Ibid., p.83. 14. Ibid., pp.88-89. 15. Ibid., p.95. 16. Jbid., p.90. 17. Ibid., p.87. 18. Norman Cohn, The Pursuit of the Millennium: Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages, revised and expanded edition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1970), p.127. 19. Ibid. 20. Ibij, p.128. 21. C. Northcote Parkinson, Parkinson s" Law and Other Studies in Administration (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1957), p.60, quoted in Tilly, p.4. 22. van Creveld, op. cit., p.50. 23. Playfair, op. cit., p.72. 24. Huizinga, op. ciL, p.26. 25. Ibid., p.57. 26. Ibid. 27. Frederic C. Lane, Venice: A Maritime Republic (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1973), p.275. 28. Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1976), pp.8-9. 29.

pages: 923 words: 516,602

The C++ Programming Language by Bjarne Stroustrup

combinatorial explosion, conceptual framework, database schema, distributed generation, Donald Knuth, fault tolerance, general-purpose programming language, index card, iterative process, job-hopping, locality of reference, Menlo Park, Parkinson's law, premature optimization, sorting algorithm

Note, C++ has specific language support to help avoid most of the problems mentioned (§24.3.4). Robert C. Martin: Designing Object-Oriented C++ Applications Using the Booch Method. Prentice-Hall. 1995. ISBN 0-13-203837-4. Shows how to go from a problem to C++ code in a fairly systematic way. Presents alternative designs and principles for choosing between them. More practical and more concrete than most books on design. Contains extensive C++ code examples. C. N. Parkinson: Parkinson’s Law and other Studies in Administration. Houghton Mifflin. Boston. 1957. One of the funniest and most cutting descriptions of disasters caused by administrative processes. Bertrand Meyer: Object Oriented Software Construction. Prentice Hall. 1988. Pages 1-64 and 323-334 give a good introduction to one view of object-oriented programming and design with many sound pieces of practical advice. The rest of the book describes the Eiffel language.

Engineering Security by Peter Gutmann

active measures, algorithmic trading, Amazon Web Services, Asperger Syndrome, bank run, barriers to entry, bitcoin, Brian Krebs, business process, call centre, card file, cloud computing, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, combinatorial explosion, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Debian, domain-specific language, Donald Davies, Donald Knuth, double helix,, endowment effect, fault tolerance, Firefox, fundamental attribution error, George Akerlof, glass ceiling, GnuPG, Google Chrome, iterative process, Jacob Appelbaum, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, John Conway, John Markoff, John von Neumann, Kickstarter, lake wobegon effect, Laplace demon, linear programming, litecoin, load shedding, MITM: man-in-the-middle, Network effects, Parkinson's law, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, Pierre-Simon Laplace, place-making, post-materialism, QR code, race to the bottom, random walk, recommendation engine, RFID, risk tolerance, Robert Metcalfe, Ruby on Rails, Sapir-Whorf hypothesis, Satoshi Nakamoto, security theater, semantic web, Skype, slashdot, smart meter, social intelligence, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, telemarketer, text mining, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Market for Lemons, the payments system, Therac-25, too big to fail, Turing complete, Turing machine, Turing test, web application, web of trust, x509 certificate, Y2K, zero day, Zimmermann PGP

Skinner, Appleton-Century, 1938. [134] “Human Factors: Understanding People-System Relationships”, Barry Kantowitz and Robert Sorkin, John Wiley and Sons, 1983. [135] “A communication model for determining the appropriateness of on-product warnings”, R.Driver, IEEE Transactions on Professional Communication, Vol.30, No.3 (September 1987), p.157. [136] “Intended and Unintended Consequences of Warning Messages: A Review and Synthesis of Empirical Research”, David Stewart and Martin Ingrid, Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, Vol.13, No.1 (Spring 1994), p.1. [137] “Human Factors Considerations for Passwords and Other User Identification Techniques, Part 2: Field Study, Results and Analysis”, Kenneth Allendoerfer and Shantanu Pai, US Federal Aviation Administration technical report DOT/FAA/TC-06/09, January 2008. [138] “Geekonomics”, David Rice, Addison-Wesley, 2007. [139] “Advancing the State of Home Networking”, W.Keith Edwards, Rebecca Grinter, Ratul Mahajan and David Wetherall, Communications of the ACM, Vol.54, No.6 (June 2011), p.62. 100 Problems [140] “JavaScript and HTML: Forgiveness by Default”, Jeff Atwood, 26 April 2007, [141] “Firefox and the Worry-free Web”, Blake Ross, in “Security and Usability: Designing Secure Systems That People Can Use”, O’Reilly, 2005, p.577. [142] “Access Control for Home Data Sharing: Attitudes, Needs and Practices”, Michelle Mazurek, J.P. Arsenault, Joanna Bresee, Nitin Gupta, Iulia Ion, Christina Johns, Daniel Lee, Yuan Liang, Jenny Olsen, Brandon Salmon, Richard Shay, Kami Vaniea, Lujo Bauer, Lorrie Faith Cranor, Gregory Ganger and Michael Reiter, Proceedings of the 28th Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI’10), April 2010, p.645. [143] “Parkinson’s Law”, C.Northcote Parkinson, Houghton Mifflin, 1957. [144] “Building Systems to Be Shared, Securely”, Poul-Henning Kamp and Robert Watson, ACM Queue, Vol.2, No.5 (July/August 2004), p.42. [145] “Getting Real: The smarter, faster, easier way to build a successful web application”, Jason Fried, Heinemeier Hansson and Matthew Linderman, 37Signals, 2009. [146] “Free software UI”, Havoc Pennington, April 2002, [147] “Checkboxes that kill your product”, Alex Limi, 18 March 2013, [148] “Say NO by default”, Derek Sivers, 7 August 2004,