Cluster-weighted modeling – link to Probability density function

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==Basic form of model==
==Basic form of model==
The procedure for cluster-weighted modeling of an input-output problem can be outlined as follows.<ref name=nature/> In order to construct predicted values for an output variable ''y'' from an input variable ''x'', the modeling and calibration procedure arrives at a [[joint probability distribution|joint probability density function]], ''p''(''y'',''x''). Here the "variables" might be uni-variate, multivariate or time-series. For convenience, any model parameters are not indicated in the notation here and several different treatments of these are possible, including setting them to fixed values as a step in the calibration or treating them using a [[Bayesian analysis]]. The required predicted values are obtained by constructing the [[conditional probability distribution|conditional probability density]] ''p''(''y''|''x'') from which the prediction using the [[conditional expected value]] can be obtained, with the [[conditional variance]] providing an indication of uncertainty.
The procedure for cluster-weighted modeling of an input-output problem can be outlined as follows.<ref name=nature/> In order to construct predicted values for an output variable ''y'' from an input variable ''x'', the modeling and calibration procedure arrives at a joint [[probability density function]], ''p''(''y'',''x''). Here the "variables" might be uni-variate, multivariate or time-series. For convenience, any model parameters are not indicated in the notation here and several different treatments of these are possible, including setting them to fixed values as a step in the calibration or treating them using a [[Bayesian analysis]]. The required predicted values are obtained by constructing the [[conditional probability distribution|conditional probability density]] ''p''(''y''|''x'') from which the prediction using the [[conditional expected value]] can be obtained, with the [[conditional variance]] providing an indication of uncertainty.


The important step of the modeling is that ''p''(''y''|''x'') is assumed to take the following form, as a [[mixture model]]:
The important step of the modeling is that ''p''(''y''|''x'') is assumed to take the following form, as a [[mixture model]]: