meta analysis

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pages: 321 words: 97,661

How to Read a Paper: The Basics of Evidence-Based Medicine by Trisha Greenhalgh

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call centre, complexity theory, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, deskilling, knowledge worker, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, New Journalism, p-value, personalized medicine, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, the scientific method

You may have worked out by now that anyone who is thinking about doing a clinical trial of an intervention should first do a meta-analysis of all the previous trials on that same intervention. In practice, researchers only occasionally do this. Dean Fergusson and colleagues of the Ottawa Health Research Institute published a cumulative meta-analysis of all randomised controlled trials carried out on the drug aprotinin in peri-operative bleeding during cardiac surgery [16]. They lined up the trials in the order they had been published, and worked out what a meta-analysis of ‘all trials done so far’ would have shown (had it been performed at the time). The resulting cumulative meta-analysis had shocking news for the research communities. The beneficial effect of aprotinin reached statistical significance after only 12 trials—that is, back in 1992. But because nobody did a meta-analysis at the time, a further 52 clinical trials were undertaken (and more may be ongoing).

The inclusion in systematic reviews of irrelevant studies is guaranteed to lead to absurdities and reduce the credibility of secondary research. Meta-analysis for the non-statistician If I had to pick one term that exemplifies the fear and loathing felt by so many students, clinicians and consumers towards EBM, that word would be ‘meta-analysis’. The meta-analysis, defined as a statistical synthesis of the numerical results of several trials that all addressed the same question, is the statisticians' chance to pull a double whammy on you. First, they frighten you with all the statistical tests in the individual papers, and then they use a whole new battery of tests to produce a new set of odds ratios, confidence intervals and values for significance. As I confessed in Chapter 5, I too tend to go into panic mode at the sight of ratios, square root signs and half-forgotten Greek letters. But before you consign meta-analysis to the set of specialised techniques that you will never understand, remember two things.

Figure 9.4 illustrates this waste of effort. Figure 9.4 Cumulative meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of aprotinin in cardiac surgery [16]. Reproduced with permission of Clinical Trials. If you have followed the arguments on meta-analysis of published trial results this far, you might like to read up on the more sophisticated technique of meta-analysis of individual patient data, which provides a more accurate and precise figure for the point estimate of effect [17]. You might also like to hunt out what is becoming the classic textbook on the topic [18]. Explaining heterogeneity In everyday language, ‘homogeneous’ means ‘of uniform composition’, and ‘heterogeneous’ means ‘many different ingredients’. In the language of meta-analysis, homogeneity means that the results of each individual trial are compatible with the results of any of the others.

 

pages: 357 words: 110,072

Trick or Treatment: The Undeniable Facts About Alternative Medicine by Edzard Ernst, Simon Singh

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Barry Marshall: ulcers, Berlin Wall, correlation does not imply causation, false memory syndrome, Florence Nightingale: pie chart, germ theory of disease, John Snow's cholera map, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, Simon Singh, The Design of Experiments, the scientific method

In fact, the most sensible interpretation of the meta-analysis was that homeopathy was indeed nothing more than a placebo. This interpretation becomes more convincing if we bear in mind another aspect of his research. While conducting his meta-analysis on homeopathy, he also conducted a meta-analysis for a whole variety of new, conventional pharmaceuticals. These pharmaceuticals had been tested on the same illnesses that had been considered for the homeopathy meta-analysis. In this secondary meta-analysis, Shang scrupulously applied exactly the same selection criteria to these conventional drug trials as he had done in his homeopathy meta-analysis. The result of his meta-analysis on conventional drug trials was that on average they worked. Although this result also had an uncertainty associated with it, the average benefit was so large that the effectiveness of these new conventional drugs was not in any doubt.

He and his colleagues decided to examine the considerable body of research into homeopathy in order to develop an over-arching conclusion that took into consideration each and every trial. This is known as a meta-analysis, which means an analysis of various analyses. In other words, each individual trial into homeopathy concluded with an analysis of its own data, and Linde was proposing to pool all these separate analyses in order to generate a new, more reliable, overall result. Meta-analysis can be considered as a particular type of systematic review, a concept that was introduced in the previous chapter. Like a systematic review, a meta-analysis attempts to draw an overall conclusion from several separate trials, except that a meta-analysis tends to involve a more mathematical approach. Although the term meta-analysis might be unfamiliar to many readers, it is a concept that crops up in a range of familiar situations where it is important to make sense of lots of data.

Indeed, the majority of experiments (three out of five) imply a higher than expected hit rate, so one way to interpret these sets of data would be to conclude that, in general, the experiments support astrology. However, a meta-analysis would come to a different conclusion. The meta-analysis would start by pointing out that the number of attempts made by the astrologer in any one of the experiments was relatively small, and therefore the result of any single experiment could be explained by mere chance. In other words, the result of any one of these experiments is effectively meaningless. Next, the researcher doing the meta-analysis would combine all the data from the individual experiments as though they were part of one giant experiment. This tells us that the astrologer had 49 hits out of 600 in total, which is equivalent to a hit rate of 0.98 out of 12, which is very close to 1 out of 12, the hit rate expected by chance alone. The conclusion of this hypothetical meta-analysis would be that the astrologer has demonstrated no special ability to determine a person’s star sign based on their personality.

 

pages: 382 words: 115,172

The Diet Myth: The Real Science Behind What We Eat by Tim Spector

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., The Big Fat Surprise (Simon & Schuster, 2014) 6 Goldacre, B., BMJ (2014); 349 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g4745. Mass treatment with statins. 7 Harborne, Z., Open Heart (2015); 2: doi:10.1136/openhrt-2014-000196. Evidence from randomised controlled trials did not support the introduction of dietary fat guidelines in 1977 and 1983: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 8 Siri-Tarino, P.W., Am J Clin Nutr (2010); 91: 535–46. Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies evaluating the association of saturated fat with cardiovascular disease. 9 Hjerpsted, J., Am J Clin Nutr (2011); 94: 1479–84. Cheese intake in large amounts lowers LDL-cholesterol concentrations compared with butter intake of equal fat content. 10 Rice, B.H., Curr Nutr Rep (15 Mar 2014); 3: 130–38. Dairy and Cardiovascular Disease: A Review of Recent Observational Research. 11 Tachmazidou, I., Nature Commun (2013); 4: 2872.

., BMJ (15 Jan 2012); 346: e7492. Dietary sugars and body weight: systematic review and meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials and cohort studies. 31 Sievenpiper, J.L., Ann Intern Med (21 Feb 2012); 156: 291–304. Effect of fructose on body weight in controlled feeding trials: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 32 Kelishadi, R., Nutrition (May 2014); 30: 503–10. Association of fructose consumption and components of metabolic syndrome in human studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis. 11 Carbohydrates: Non-sugars 1 Claesson, M.J., Nature (9 Aug 2012); 488(7410): 178–84. Gut microbiota composition correlates with diet and health in the elderly. 2 van Tongeren, S., Appl. Environ. Microbiol (2005); 71(10): 6438–42. Fecal microbiota composition and frailty. 3 Friedman, M., J Agric Food Chem (9 Oct 2013); 61(40): 9534–50.

Food neophobia shows heritable variation in humans. 12 Fibre 1 Anderson, J.C., Am J Gastroenterol (Oct 2014); 109(10): 1650–2. Editorial: constipation and colorectal cancer risk: a continuing conundrum. 2 Threapleton, D.E., BMJ (19 Dec 2013); 347: f6879. Dietary fibre intake and risk of cardiovascular disease: systematic review and meta-analysis. 3 Kim, Y., Am J Epidemiol (15 Sep 2014);180(6): 565–73. Dietary fiber intake and total mortality: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. 4 Thies, F., Br J Nutr (Oct 2014); 112 Suppl 2: S19–30. Oats and CVD risk markers: a systematic literature review. 5 Musilova, S., Benef Microbes (Sep 2014); 5(3): 273–83. Beneficial effects of human milk oligosaccharides on gut microbiota. 6 Ukhanova, M., Br J Nutr (28 Jun 2014); 111(12): 2146–52.

 

pages: 322 words: 107,576

Bad Science by Ben Goldacre

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Asperger Syndrome, correlation does not imply causation, experimental subject, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, John Snow's cholera map, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, offshore financial centre, p-value, placebo effect, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, the scientific method, urban planning

They died, even when there was enough information available to know what would save them, because that information had not been synthesised together, and analysed systematically, in a meta-analysis. Back to homeopathy (you can see why I find it trivial now). A landmark meta-analysis was published recently in the Lancet. It was accompanied by an editorial titled: ‘The End of Homeopathy?’ Shang et al. did a very thorough meta-analysis of a vast number of homeopathy trials, and they found, overall, adding them all up, that homeopathy performs no better than placebo. The homeopaths were up in arms. If you mention this meta-analysis, they will try to tell you that it was a stitch-up. What Shang et al. did, essentially, like all the previous negative meta-analyses of homeopathy, was to exclude the poorer-quality trials from their analysis.

As with the fish-oil pills, Horrobin’s products were always in the news, but it was difficult to get hold of the research data. In 1989 he published a famous meta-analysis of trials in a dermatology journal which found that his lead product, evening primrose oil, was effective in eczema. This meta-analysis excluded the one available large published trial (which was negative), but included the two oldest studies, and seven small positive studies sponsored by his own company (these were still unavailable at the last review I could find, in 2003). In 1990 two academics had their review of the data binned by the journal after Horrobin’s lawyers got involved. In 1995 the Department of Health commissioned a meta-analysis from a renowned epidemiologist. This included ten unpublished studies held by the company which was marketing evening primrose oil.

The fact, however, that the average result of the 10 trials scoring 5 points on the Jadad score contradicts this notion, is consistent with the hypomesis that some (by no means all) methodologically astute and highly convinced homeopaths have published results that look convincing but are, in fact, not credible. But this is a curiosity and an aside. In the bigger picture it doesn’t matter, because overall, even including these suspicious studies, the ‘meta-analyses’ still show, overall, that homeopathy is no better than placebo. Meta-analyses? Meta-analysis This will be our last big idea for a while, and this is one that has saved the lives of more people than you will ever meet. A meta-analysis is a very simple thing to do, in some respects: you just collect all the results from all the trials on a given subject, bung them into one big spreadsheet, and do the maths on that, instead of relying on your own gestalt intuition about all the results from each of your little trials. It’s particularly useful when there have been lots of trials, each too small to give a conclusive answer, but all looking at the same topic.

 

pages: 402 words: 129,876

Bad Pharma: How Medicine Is Broken, and How We Can Fix It by Ben Goldacre

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data acquisition, framing effect, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, income per capita, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan, Simon Singh, WikiLeaks

At the bottom, however, you can see the summary effect – a dot on this old-fashioned blobbogram, rather than a diamond. And you can see very clearly that overall, streptokinase saves lives. So what’s that on the right? It’s something called a cumulative meta-analysis. If you look at the list of studies on the left of the diagram, you can see that they are arranged in order of date. The cumulative meta-analysis on the right adds in each new trial’s results, as they arrived over history, to the previous trials’ results. This gives the best possible running estimate, each year, of how the evidence would have looked at that time, if anyone had bothered to do a meta-analysis on all the data available to them. From this cumulative blobbogram you can see that the horizontal lines, the ‘summary effects’, narrow over time as more and more data is collected, and the estimate of the overall benefit of this treatment becomes more accurate.

It would also allow cautious ‘subgroup analyses’, to see if a drug is particularly useful, or particularly useless, in particular types of patients. The biggest immediate benefit from data sharing is that combining individual patient data into a meta-analysis gives more accurate results than working with the crude summary results at the end of a paper. Let’s imagine that one paper reports survival at three years as the main outcome for a cancer drug, and another reports survival at seven years. To combine these two in a meta-analysis, you’d have a problem. But if you were doing the meta-analysis with access to individual patient data, with treatment details and death dates for all of them, you could do a clean combined calculation for three-year survival. This is exactly the kind of work being done in the area of breast cancer research, where a small number of charismatic and forceful scientists just happen to have driven a pioneering culture of easier collaboration.

Then, in October 2009, the company changed tack: they would like to hand the data over, they explained, but another meta-analysis was being conducted elsewhere. Roche had given them the study reports, so Cochrane couldn’t have them. This was a simple non-sequitur: there is no reason why many groups shouldn’t all work on the same question. In fact, quite the opposite: replication is the cornerstone of good science. Roche’s excuse made no sense. Jefferson asked for clarification, but never received a reply. Then, one week later, unannounced, Roche sent seven short documents, each around a dozen pages long. These contained excerpts of internal company documents on each of the clinical trials in the Kaiser meta-analysis. This was a start, but it didn’t contain anything like enough information for Cochrane to assess the benefits, or the rate of adverse events, or fully to understand exactly what methods were used in the trials.

 

pages: 378 words: 110,408

Peak: Secrets From the New Science of Expertise by Anders Ericsson, Robert Pool

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Albert Einstein, deliberate practice, iterative process, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, sensible shoes

. [>] students or the ballet dancers: Even some researchers forget this from time to time. As I was working on this book, a group of researchers published a meta-analysis—that is, an analysis of a large number of previously published studies—that concluded that structured practice (although they called it “deliberate practice”) explained relatively little of the difference in performance among individuals in various fields, including music, sports, education, and other professions. See Brooke N. Macnamara, David Z. Hambrick, and Frederick L. Oswald, “Deliberate practice and performance in music, games, sports, education, and professions: A meta-analysis,” Psychological Science 25 (2014): 1608–1618. The major problem with this meta-analysis was that few of the studies the researchers examined were actually looking at the effects of the type of practice on performance that we had referred to as deliberate practice; instead, the researchers used very loose criteria to decide which studies to include in their meta-analysis, so they ended up examining a collection of studies that dealt mainly with various types of practice and training that did not meet the criteria of deliberate practice as we described it earlier in this chapter.

The major problem with this meta-analysis was that few of the studies the researchers examined were actually looking at the effects of the type of practice on performance that we had referred to as deliberate practice; instead, the researchers used very loose criteria to decide which studies to include in their meta-analysis, so they ended up examining a collection of studies that dealt mainly with various types of practice and training that did not meet the criteria of deliberate practice as we described it earlier in this chapter. I offer a detailed critique of their work in K. Anders Ericsson, “Challenges for the estimation of an upper-bound on relations between accumulated deliberate practice and the associated performance in domains of expertise: Comments on Macnamara, Hambrick, and Oswald’s (2014) published meta-analysis,” available on my website, https://psy.fsu.edu/faculty/ericsson/ericsson.hp.html. The bottom line is that what their meta-analysis really demonstrated is that if you wish to understand why some people perform better than others, it is not sufficient to attempt to measure all hours engaged in just any sort of practice; you need to focus on the activities based on our criteria for deliberate practice.

Soumerai, “Systematic review: The relationship between clinical experience and quality of health care,” Annals of Internal Medicine 142 (2005): 260–273. See also Paul M. Spengler and Lois A. Pilipis, “A comprehensive meta-analysis of the robustness of the experience-accuracy effect in clinical judgment,” Journal of Counseling Psychology 62, no. 3 (2015): 360–378. [>] Another study of decision-making accuracy: Paul M. Spengler, Michael J. White, Stefanía Ægisdóttir, Alan S. Maugherman, Linda A. Anderson, Robert S. Cook, Cassandra N. Nichols, Georgios K. Lampropoulos, Blain S. Walker, Genna R. Cohen, and Jeffrey D. Rush, “The meta-analysis of clinical judgment project: Effects of experience on judgment accuracy,” Counseling Psychology 20 (2009): 350–399. [>] experienced nurses do not: K. Anders Ericsson, James Whyte 4th, and Paul Ward, “Expert performance in nursing: Reviewing research on expertise in nursing within the framework of the expert performance approach,” Advances in Nursing Science 30, no. 1 (2007): E58–E71. [>] Davis and a group of colleagues examined: Dave Davis, Mary Ann Thomson O’Brien, Nick Freemantle, Fredric M.

 

pages: 284 words: 79,265

The Half-Life of Facts: Why Everything We Know Has an Expiration Date by Samuel Arbesman

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Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrew Wiles, bioinformatics, British Empire, Chelsea Manning, Clayton Christensen, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, David Brooks, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, double helix, Galaxy Zoo, guest worker program, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, index fund, invention of movable type, Isaac Newton, John Harrison: Longitude, Kevin Kelly, life extension, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, Nicholas Carr, p-value, Paul Erdős, Pluto: dwarf planet, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, social graph, social web, text mining, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas Malthus, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation

Rather than be accused of subjectivity, or have to gain expertise in countless specific areas, Robinson and Goodman sidestepped these problems by doing something clever: They looked at meta-analyses. Meta-analysis is a well-known technique that can be used to extract more meaning from specific papers than could be gained from looking at each one alone. A meta-analysis combines the results of papers in a specific area in order to see if there is a consensus or if more precise results can be found. They are like the analyses of thermal conductivity for different elements mentioned in chapter 3, which use the results from lots of different articles to get a better picture of the shape of what we know about how these elements conduct heat. Assuming the meta-analyses bring together all the relevant trials, Robinson and Goodman simply looked through all the studies examined in each meta-analysis to see how many of the studies cited in the meta-analyses were also mentioned in each of the newer studies being examined.

Lau and his colleagues simply recognized that to be serious about this idea of cumulative knowledge, you have to truly combine all that we know and see what new facts we can learn. While Don Swanson combined papers from scientific areas that should have overlapped but didn’t, Lau and his colleagues combined papers from very similar areas that had never been combined, looking at them more carefully than they had been examined up until then. By using cumulative meta-analysis, hidden knowledge could have been revealed fifteen years earlier than it actually was and helped improve the health of countless individuals. Modern technology is beginning to aid cumulative meta-analysis and its development, and we can even now use computational techniques to employ Swanson’s methods on a grand scale. . . . WE are not yet at the stage where we can loose computers upon the stores of human knowledge only to return a week later with discoveries that would supplant those of Einstein or Newton in our scientific pantheon.

If you did that, Lau and his colleagues discovered, a researcher would have known that intravenous streptokinase was an effective treatment years before this finding was actually published. According to their research, scientists could have found a statistically significant result in 1973, rather than in 1988, and after only eight trials, if they had combined the disparate facts. This type of analysis is known as cumulative meta-analysis. What Lau and his colleagues realized was that meta-analyses can be viewed as a ratchet rather than simply an aggregation process, with each study moving scientific knowledge a little closer to the truth. This is ultimately what science should be: an accumulation of bits of knowledge, moving ever forward, or at least sweeping away error as best we can. Lau and his colleagues simply recognized that to be serious about this idea of cumulative knowledge, you have to truly combine all that we know and see what new facts we can learn.

 

pages: 358 words: 95,115

NurtureShock: New Thinking About Children by Po Bronson, Ashley Merryman

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affirmative action, Columbine, delayed gratification, desegregation, impulse control, index card, job satisfaction, lake wobegon effect, meta analysis, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trial, Steven Pinker, telemarketer, theory of mind

Taggart, Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala, Andrew Currie, Ed Peile, Saverio Stranges, and Michelle A. Miller, “Meta-analysis of Short Sleep Duration and Obesity in Children and Adults,” Sleep, vol. 31, no. 5, pp. 619–626 (2008). Carins, A., J. Harsh, and M. LeBourgeois, “Napping in Children Is Related to Later Sleep Phase,” Journal of Sleep and Sleep Disorders Research, vol. 30, 2007 Abstract Supplement, p. A100 (2007). Chaput, J-P., M. Brunet, and A. Tremblay, “Relationship Between Short Sleeping Hours and Childhood Overweight/Obesity: Results From the ‘Québec en Forme’ Project,” International Journal of Obesity, vol. 30, no. 7, pp. 1080–1085 (2006). Chen, Xiaoli, May A. Beydoun, and Youfa Wang, “Is Sleep Duration Associated With Childhood Obesity? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Obesity, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 265–274 (2008). Chervin, Ronald D., Kristen Hedger Archbold, James E.

“It has to be based on a real thing—some skill or talent they have.” Once children hear praise they interpret as meritless, they discount not just the insincere praise, but sincere praise as well. Excessive praise also distorts children’s motivation; they begin doing things merely to hear the praise, losing sight of intrinsic enjoyment. Scholars from Reed College and Stanford reviewed over 150 praise studies. Their meta-analysis determined that praised students become risk-averse and lack perceived autonomy. The scholars found consistent correlations between a liberal use of praise and students’ “shorter task persistence, more eye-checking with the teacher, and inflected speech such that answers have the intonation of questions.” When they get to college, heavily-praised students commonly drop out of classes rather than suffer a mediocre grade, and they have a hard time picking a major—they’re afraid to commit to something because they’re afraid of not succeeding.

And in many districts, such as New York City and Chicago, students are not retested and remain in the program until they graduate from their school. Those admitted at kindergarten to private schools will stay through eighth grade. While the publishers of the tests aren’t trying to determine how well early intelligence tests predict later achievement, the academic researchers are. In 2003, Dr. Hoi Suen, Professor of Educational Psychology at Pennsylvania State University, published a meta-analysis of 44 studies, each of which looked at how well tests given in pre-K or in kindergarten predicted achievement test scores two years later. Most of the underlying 44 studies had been published in the mid-1970s to mid-1990s, and most looked at a single school or school district. Analyzing them together, Suen found that intelligence test scores before children start school, on average, had only a 40% correlation with later achievement test results.

 

pages: 743 words: 189,512

The Big Fat Surprise: Why Butter, Meat and Cheese Belong in a Healthy Diet by Nina Teicholz

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Albert Einstein, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, Gary Taubes, Indoor air pollution, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, Robert Gordon, the scientific method, Upton Sinclair

Hunter, Graham A. Colditz, et al. “Association of Dietary Intake of Fat and Fatty Acids with Risk of Breast Cancer.” Journal of the American Medical Association 281, no. 10 (March 10, 1999): 914–920. Hooper, Lee, Paul A. Kroon, Eric B. Rimm, et al. “Flavonoids, Flavonoid-Rich Foods, and Cardiovascular Risk: a Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 88, no. 1 (July 2008): 38–50. Hopkins, Paul N. “Effects of Dietary Cholesterol on Serum Cholesterol: A Meta-Analysis and Review.” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 55, no. 6 (June 1992): 1060–1070. Hornstra, Gerard, and Anna Vendelmans-Starrenburg. “Induction of Experimental Arterial Occlusive Thrombi in Rats.” Atherosclerosis 17, no. 3 (May–June 1973): 369–382. Horowitz, Roger. Putting Meat on the American Table: Taste, Technology, Transformation.

Journal of Lipid Research 12, no. 2 (March 1971): 233–247. Ramsden, Christopher E., Joseph R. Hibbeln, Sharon F. Majchrzak, and John M. Davis. “N-6 Fatty Acid-Specific and Mixed Polyunsaturate Dietary Interventions Have Different Effects on CHD Risk: A Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials.” British Journal of Nutrition 104, no. 11 (December 2010): 1586–1600. Ramsden, Christopher E., Daisy Zamora, Boonseng Leelarthaepin, et al. “Use of Dietary Linoleic Acid for Secondary Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease and Death: Evaluation of Recovered Data from the Sydney Diet Heart Study and Updated Meta-Analysis.” British Medical Journal 346 (February 4, 2013): doi:10.1136/bmj.e8707. Rand, Margaret L., Adje A. Hennissen, and Gerard Hornstra. “Effects of Dietary Palm Oil on Arterial Thrombosis, Platelet Responses and Platelet Membrane Fluidity in Rats.”

., “Effects of Dietary Cholesterol on the Regulation of Total Body Cholesterol in Man,” Journal of Lipid Research 12, no. 2 (1971): 233–247; Paul J. Nestel and Andrea Poyser, “Changes in Cholesterol Synthesis and Excretion When Cholesterol Intake Is Increased,” Metabolism 25, no. 12 (1976): 1591–1599. one of the most comprehensive analyses: Paul N. Hopkins, “Effects of Dietary Cholesterol on Serum Cholesterol: A Meta-Analysis and Review,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 55, no. 6 (1992): 1060–1070. authorities in Britain and most other European nations: A. Stewart Truswell, “Evolution of Dietary Recommendations, Goals, and Guidelines,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 45, no. 5, suppl. (1987): 1068. The United States, however, has continued recommending: Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, prepared for the Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture and US Department of Health and Human Services, Report of the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee on the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2010.

 

pages: 278 words: 70,416

Smartcuts: How Hackers, Innovators, and Icons Accelerate Success by Shane Snow

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3D printing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, attribution theory, augmented reality, barriers to entry, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, deliberate practice, Elon Musk, Fellow of the Royal Society, Filter Bubble, Google X / Alphabet X, hive mind, index card, index fund, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, Khan Academy, Law of Accelerating Returns, Lean Startup, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, popular electronics, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs

McManus, Shana A. Simon, and Joyce E. A. Russell. “The Protege’s Perspective Regarding Negative Mentoring Experiences: The Development of a Taxonomy.” Journal of Vocational Behavior 57, no. 1 (2000): 1–21. Eby, Lillian T., Tammy D. Allen, Sarah C. Evans, Thomas Ng, and David L. DuBois. “Does Mentoring Matter? A Multidisciplinary Meta-Analysis Comparing Mentored and Non-Mentored Individuals.” Journal of Vocational Behavior 72, no. 2 (2008): 254–67. Ellington, Aimee J. “A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Calculators on Students’ Achievement and Attitude Levels in Precollege Mathematics Classes.” Journal for Research in Mathematics Education 34, no. 5 (2003): 433–63. English, T. J. Havana Nocturne: How the Mob Owned Cuba and Then Lost It to the Revolution. William Morrow, 2008. Finkelstein, Stacey R., and Ayelet Fishbach.

Underhill, “The Effectiveness of Mentoring Programs in Corporate Settings: A Meta-analytical Review of the Literature,” Journal of Vocational Behavior 68 (2006): 292–307, shows that informal mentoring has a greater effect than formal mentoring. A later study found that formal and informal mentorship results in various activities (work, youth, academic) were small, but generally positive: Lillian T. Eby, Tammy D. Allen, Sarah C. Evans, Thomas Ng, and David L. DuBois, “Does Mentoring Matter? A Multidisciplinary Meta-Analysis Comparing Mentored and Non-mentored Individuals,” Journal of Vocational Behavior 72, no. 2 (2008): 254–67. 44 “Searching for a mentor has become the professional equivalent”: Sheryl Sandberg, Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead (Alfred A. Knopf, 2013). 46 journey-focused mentorship and not just a focus on practice: Further research shows that when protégés open up to their mentors—what my friend and NextJump.com founder Charlie Kim calls “vulnerability”—they tend to achieve more positive results: Connie R.

Staats, KC Diwas, and Francesca Gino, “Learning from My Success and from Others’ Failure: Evidence from Minimally Invasive Cardiac Surgery,” Management Science 59, no. 11 (2013): 2435–49. 68 a hundred years of these studies: Kluger and DeNisi examine the “contradictory and seldom straight-forward” outcomes of feedback intervention studies over the decades in Avraham N. Kluger and Angelo DeNisi, “The Effects of Feedback Interventions on Performance: A Historical Review, a Meta-Analysis, and a Preliminary Feedback Intervention Theory,” Psychological Bulletin 119, no. 2 (1996): 254–84, and find that more than one-third of feedback decreases performance. “The results suggest that FI [feedback intervention] effectiveness decreases as attention moves up the hierarchy closer to the self and away from the task,” they write. 68 vastly preferred negative feedback: As people gain expertise, they shift from desiring positive feedback to desiring negative, write Stacey R.

 

pages: 600 words: 174,620

The Body Keeps the Score: Brain, Mind, and Body in the Healing of Trauma by Bessel van Der Kolk M. D.

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anesthesia awareness, British Empire, conceptual framework, deskilling, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, false memory syndrome, feminist movement, impulse control, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, placebo effect, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, theory of mind, Yogi Berra

., “Preventing Child Abuse and Neglect with a Program of Nurse Home Visitation: The Limiting Effects of Domestic Violence,” JAMA 284, no. 11 (2000): 1385–91; D. I. Lowell, et al., “A Randomized Controlled Trial of Child FIRST: A Comprehensive Home-Based Intervention Translating Research into Early Childhood Practice,” Child Development 82, no. 1 (January/February 2011): 193–208; S. T. Harvey and J. E. Taylor, “A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Psychotherapy with Sexually Abused Children and Adolescents, Clinical Psychology Review 30, no. 5 (July 2010): 517–35; J. E. Taylor and S. T. Harvey, “A Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Psychotherapy with Adults Sexually Abused in Childhood,” Clinical Psychology Review 30, no. 6 (August 2010): 749–67; Olds, Henderson, Chamberlin, & Tatelbaum, 1986; B. C. Stolbach, et al., “Complex Trauma Exposure and Symptoms in Urban Traumatized Children: A Preliminary Test of Proposed Criteria for Developmental Trauma Disorder,” Journal of Traumatic Stress 26, no. 4 (August 2013): 483–91.

., “Randomized Trial of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Chronic Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Adult Female Survivors of Childhood Sexual Abuse,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 73, no. 3 (2005): 515–24; Institute of Medicine of the National Academies, Treatment of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: An Assessment of the Evidence (Washington: National Academies Press, 2008); and R. Bradley, et al., “A Multidimensional Meta-Analysis of Psychotherapy for PTSD,” American Journal of Psychiatry 162, no. 2 (2005): 214–27. 39. J. Bisson, et al., “Psychological Treatments for Chronic Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” British Journal of Psychiatry 190 (2007): 97–104. See also L. H. Jaycox, E. B. Foa, and A. R. Morrall, “Influence of Emotional Engagement and Habituation on Exposure Therapy for PTSD,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 66 (1998): 185–92. 40. “Dropouts: in prolonged exposure (n = 53 [38%]); in present-centered therapy (n = 30 [21%]) (P = .002).

Sterman, “Neuropsychological Assessment of Subjects with Uncontrolled Epilepsy: Effects of EEG Feedback Training,” Epilepsia 29, no. 2 (1988): 163–71. 6. M. B. Sterman, L. R. Macdonald, and R. K. Stone, “Biofeedback Training of the Sensorimotor Electroencephalogram Rhythm in Man: Effects on Epilepsy,” Epilepsia 15, no. 3 (1974): 395–416. A recent meta-analysis of eighty-seven studies showed that neurofeedback led to a significant reduction in seizure frequency in approximately 80 percent of epileptics who received the training. Gabriel Tan, et al., “Meta-Analysis of EEG Biofeedback in Treating Epilepsy,” Clinical EEG and Neuroscience 40, no. 3 (2009): 173–79. 7. This is part of the same circuit of self-awareness that I described in chapter 5. Alvaro Pascual-Leone has shown how, when one temporarily knocks out the area above the medial prefrontal cortex with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), people can temporarily not identify whom they are looking at when they stare into the mirror.

 

pages: 397 words: 109,631

Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking by Richard E. Nisbett

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affirmative action, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, big-box store, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, cognitive dissonance, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, cosmological constant, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dark matter, endowment effect, experimental subject, feminist movement, fundamental attribution error, glass ceiling, Henri Poincaré, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, quantitative easing, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Socratic dialogue, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, William of Occam, Zipcar

Lehman, Lempert, and Nisbett, “The Effects of Graduate Training on Reasoning: Formal Discipline and Thinking About Everyday Life Events.” 7. ODDS AND NS 1. Kuncel, Hezlett, and Ones, “A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the Graduate Record Examinations: Implications for Graduate Student Selection and Performance.” 2. Kunda and Nisbett, “The Psychometrics of Everyday Life.” 3. Rein and Rainwater, “How Large Is the Welfare Class?” 4. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow. 8. LINKED UP 1. Smedslund, “The Concept of Correlation in Adults”; Ward and Jenkins, “The Display of Information and the Judgment of Contingency.” 2. Zagorsky, “Do You Have to Be Smart to Be Rich? The Impact of IQ on Wealth, Income and Financial Distress.” 3. Kuncel, Hezlett, and Ones, “A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the Graduate Record Examinations: Implications for Graduate Student Selection and Performance.” 4.

; Dijksterhuis, “Think Different: The Merits of Unconscious Thought in Preference Development and Decision Making”; Dijksterhuis and Nordgren, “A Theory of Unconscious Thought”; A. Dijksterhuis et al., “On Making the Right Choice: The Deliberation-Without-Attention Effect”; Gonzalo et al., “‘Save Angels Perhaps’: A Critical Examination of Unconscious Thought Theory and the Deliberation-Without-Attention Effect”; Strick et al., “A Meta-Analysis on Unconscious Thought Effects.” 11. Lewicki et al., “Nonconscious Acquisition of Information.” 12. Klarreich, “Unheralded Mathematician Bridges the Prime Gap.” 13. Ghiselin, ed. The Creative Process. 14. Maier, “Reasoning in Humans II: The Solution of a Problem and Its Appearance in Consciousness.” 15. Kim, “Naked Self-Interest? Why the Legal Profession Resists Gatekeeping”; O’Brien, Sommers, and Ellsworth, “Ask and What Shall Ye Receive?

Hanushek, “The Economics of Schooling: Production and Efficiency in Public Schools”; Hoxby, “The Effects of Class Size on Student Achievement: New Evidence from Population Variation”; Jencks et al., Inequality: A Reassessment of the Effects of Family and Schooling in America. 4. Krueger, “Experimental Estimates of Education Production Functions.” 5. Shin and Chung, “Class Size and Student Achievement in the United States: A Meta-Analysis.” 6. Samieri et al., “Olive Oil Consumption, Plasma Oleic Acid, and Stroke Incidence.” 7. Fong et al., “Correction of Visual Impairment by Cataract Surgery and Improved Survival in Older Persons.” 8. Samieri et al., “Olive Oil Consumption, Plasma Oleic Acid, and Stroke Incidence.” 9. Humphrey and Chan, “Postmenopausal Hormone Replacement Therapy and the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease.” 10.

 

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The End of Illness by David B. Agus M. D.

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Danny Hillis, discovery of penicillin, double helix, epigenetics, germ theory of disease, Google Earth, impulse control, information retrieval, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Murray Gell-Mann, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, Steve Jobs, the scientific method

Thankfully, sound research from some of our most trusted purveyors of medical wisdom has tried to put this uncertainty to rest. Today, the growing body of evidence—and scientific opinion held—is changing the landscape for these molecules. For starters, researchers at the Cleveland Clinic attempted to clear up the confusion about supplement use by doing a meta-analysis—an overview study of the best-designed, largest studies of antioxidants. A meta-analysis is an excellent way to explore an idea because it allows investigators to combine the results of many studies, thereby allowing small benefits or harm to be seen that may not have been appreciated in any one study. The Cleveland group’s findings were published in 2003 in the British medical journal the Lancet. The researchers analyzed results from seven large, randomized trials of vitamin E, alone or in combination with other antioxidants, and eight of beta-carotene, which is a precursor of vitamin A.

The researchers analyzed results from seven large, randomized trials of vitamin E, alone or in combination with other antioxidants, and eight of beta-carotene, which is a precursor of vitamin A. The doses of vitamin E ranged from 50–800 international units (IU); for beta-carotene, the doses were 15–50 milligrams (mg). Overall, 81,788 patients were included in the vitamin E portion of the meta-analysis and 138,113 in the beta-carotene portion. The researchers looked for the effect of these antioxidant vitamins on death rates, either from cardiovascular disease or from any other cause, what’s referred to in scientific circles as “all-cause mortality.” Much to the their surprise, vitamin E did not provide any benefit in lowering mortality compared to control treatments, and it did not significantly decrease the risk of cardiovascular death or stroke (“cerebrovascular accident”).

British Journal of Sports Medicine 17, no. 2 (June 1983): 122–27. Bishop, D. The effects of travel on team performance in the Australian national netball competition. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine 7, no. 1 (March 2004): 118–22. Bjelakovic, G., D. Nikolova, L.L. Gluud, R.G. Simonetti, and C. Gluud. Mortality in randomized trials of antioxidant supplements for primary and secondary prevention: systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association 297, no. 8 (February 28, 2007): 842–57. Blair, S.N. Physical inactivity: the biggest public health problem of the 21st century. British Journal of Sports Medicine 43, no. 1 (January 2009): 1–2. Blair, S.N., et al. A tribute to Professor Jeremiah Morris: the man who invented the field of physical activity epidemiology. Annals of Epidemiology 20, no. 9 (September 2010): 651–60.

 

pages: 480 words: 138,041

The Book of Woe: The DSM and the Unmaking of Psychiatry by Gary Greenberg

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Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, back-to-the-land, David Brooks, impulse control, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Snow's cholera map, late capitalism, Louis Pasteur, McMansion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, neurotypical, phenotype, placebo effect, random walk, statistical model, theory of mind, Winter of Discontent

Frances thought there was a way to protect the system from both instability and pontificating: meta-analysis, a statistical method that, thanks to advances in computer technology and statistical modeling, had recently allowed statisticians to compile results from large numbers of studies by combining disparate data into common terms. The result was a statistical synthesis by which many different research projects could be treated as one large study. “We needed something that would leave it up to the tables rather than the people,” he told me, and meta-analysis was perfect for the job. “The idea was you would have to present evidence in tabular form that would be so convincing it would jump up and grab people by the throats.” “We put a lot of faith in meta-analysis,” Frances told me. Not that he expected to use meta-analysis to sort out the arguments, at least not very often.

Not that he expected to use meta-analysis to sort out the arguments, at least not very often. “You need lots of data from lots of sources for a meta-analysis,” he said. “And I knew that the literature didn’t have the data. I knew we couldn’t do a real meta-analysis of most of what would come up.” If someone brought up one of those off-the-cuff ideas in a meeting, or collared him with a pet proposal at dinner, Frances would just tell him to bring him the data, which he was pretty sure didn’t exist. Meta-analysis would protect the DSM-IV (not to mention Frances) from the pontificators, the profession from confusion, the common language from its own tenuousness. With statistics guarding the gate, the revision would be modest. It might also be boring, but, Frances says, “dull is better than arbitrary.” Seven years after he met with Pincus, when the DSM-IV was released, it was nearly four hundred pages longer than the DSM-III-R, but most of the expansion was in the explanatory sections.

(Apparently, Schatzberg couldn’t imagine another way for doctors to learn about new drugs other than from the sales forces of the companies that make them; perhaps he also buys his cars based on what his dealer tells him.) “The strident debate and attacks have obfuscated the negative impact of eliminating industry from our offices,” he complained. As unjust as it might have been, however, the drug company purge seemed irreversible. The APA was going to have to make up that $10 million deficit somehow. The organization won’t say how much revenue it anticipates from a new DSM, but you don’t have to run a meta-analysis to figure out that a new book would be worth far more at its outset than the $6 million the DSM-IV generated in 2010. Leaders of the APA would not confirm the old suspicion that money was a driving force behind the revision (although one trustee did tell me that “it would be disastrous not to get that income”), but that looming bonanza had to be looking pretty good—if only they could get their hands on it.

 

Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth About Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers by David Perlmutter, Kristin Loberg

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epigenetics, Gary Taubes, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mouse model, phenotype, Ralph Waldo Emerson, stem cell

Smoller, et al., “Antidepressant Use and Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality Among Postmenopausal Women in the Women’s Health Initiative Study,” Archives of Internal Medicine 169, no. 22 (December 14, 2009): 2128–39. 21. J. C. Fournier, et al., “Antidepressant Drug Effects and Depression Severity: A Patient-level Meta-analysis,” JAMA 303, no. 1 (January 6, 2010): 47–53. 22. J. Y. Shin, et al., “Are Cholesterol and Depression Inversely Related? A Meta-analysis of the Association Between Two Cardiac Risk Factors,” Annals of Behavioral Medicine 36, no. 1 (August 2008): 33–43. 23. http://www.naturalnews.com/032125_statins_memory_loss.html. 24. James Greenblatt, MD, “Low Cholesterol and Its Psychological Effects: Low Cholesterol Is Linked to Depression, Suicide, and Violence,” The Breakthrough Depression Solution (blog), Psychology Today, June 10, 2011, http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-breakthrough-depression-solution/201106/low-cholesterol-and-its-psychological-effects. 25.

Petousis-Harris, “Saturated Fat Has Been Unfairly Demonised: Yes,” Primary Health Care 3, no. 4 (December 1, 2011): 317–19. 11. http://www.survivediabetes.com/lowfat.html. 12. A. W. Weverling-Rijnsburger, et al., “Total Cholesterol and Risk of Mortality in the Oldest Old,” Lancet 350, no. 9085 (October 18, 1997): 1119–23. 13. L. Dupuis, et al., “Dyslipidemia Is a Protective Factor in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis,” Neurology 70, no. 13 (March 25, 2008): 1004–09. 14. P. W. Siri-Tarino, et al., “Meta-analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies Evaluating the Association of Saturated Fat with Cardiovascular Disease,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 91, no. 3 (March 2010): 535–46. 15. Michael I. Gurr, et al., Lipid Biochemistry: An Introduction, Fifth Edition (New York: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010). 16. A. Astrup, et al., “The Role of Reducing Intakes of Saturated Fat in the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: Where Does the Evidence Stand in 2010?”

., “Insulin Resistance in Cognitive Impairment: The InCHIANTI Study,” Archives of Neurology 62, no. 7 (2005): 1067–72. 18. M. Adamczak and A. Wiecek, “The Adipose Tissue as an Endocrine Organ,” Seminars in Nephrology 33, no. 1 (January 2013): 2–13. 19. E. L. de Hollander, et al., “The Association Between Waist Circumference and Risk of Mortality Considering Body Mass Index in 65-to 74-year-olds: A Meta-analysis of 29 Cohorts Involving More Than 58,000 Elderly Persons,” International Journal of Epidemiology 41, no. 3 (June 2012): 805–17. 20. F. Item and D. Konrad, “Visceral Fat and Metabolic Inflammation: The Portal Theory Revisited,” pt. 2, Obesity Reviews 13 (December 2012): S30–S39. 21. C. Geroldi, et al., “Insulin Resistance in Cognitive Impairment” (see chap. 4, n. 17). 22. C. A. Raji, et al., “Brain Structure and Obesity,” Human Brain Mapping 31, no. 3 (March 2010): 353–64. 23.

 

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The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey

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3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, autonomous vehicles, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve

This discovery has been dubbed the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis posits that environmental conditions initially deteriorate as economic growth takes off, but later improve when citizens with rising incomes demand better quality environmental amenities. There is still considerable debate over the empirical reality of this hypothesis, but a 2011 meta-analysis based on 878 observations from 103 empirical EKC studies (1992 to 2009) reports that its results “indicate the presence of an EKC-type relationship for landscape degradation, water pollution, agricultural wastes, municipal-related wastes, and several air pollution measures.” The best evidence backs the notion that increasing wealth from economic growth correlates with a cleaner natural environment—that is to say, richer becomes cleaner.

In a 2010 review article in the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, the Rutgers ecologist Joan Ehrenfeld reported that rapidly accumulating evidence from many introduced species of plants and animals shows that they improve ecosystem functioning by increasing local biomass and speeding up the recycling of nutrients and energy. For example, zebra mussels are very effective filter feeders that have helped clear up the polluted waters of the Great Lakes enough to permit native lake grasses and other plants to flourish. A 2012 review article in Trends in Ecology and Evolution surveying the literature on the effects of introduced species on ecosystem functioning reported that a “meta-analysis of over 1000 field studies showing that, although regional native species richness has often declined, primary production and several ecosystem processes were usually maintained or enhanced as a result of species introductions.” The researchers further conclude, “What is clear is that ecological theory does not automatically imply that a global decline in species richness will result in impaired functioning of the world’s ecosystems.”

“The influence of innovation”: Harry Bloch and David Sapsford, “Innovation, Real Primary Commodity Prices, and the Business Cycles,” paper presented at the International Schumpeter Society Conference 2010 on Innovation, Organisation, Sustainability and Crises, Aalborg, June 2010, 10. presence of an EKC-type relationship: Bishwa Koirala et al., “Further Investigation of Environmental Kuznets Curve Studies Using Meta-Analysis.” International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics 22.S11 (2011). www.ceserp.com/cp-jour/index.php?journal=ijees&page=article&op=view&path[]=1014. globally, pollution: edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/news_docs/July%2019_v2.pdf, Version v4.1of the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), July 2010. sulfur dioxide emissions: K. Zilmont, S. J. Smith, and J. Cofala, “The Last Decade of Global Anthropogenic Sulfur Dioxide 2000–2011.”

 

pages: 404 words: 124,705

The Village Effect: How Face-To-Face Contact Can Make Us Healthier, Happier, and Smarter by Susan Pinker

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Atul Gawande, Bernie Madoff, call centre, cognitive dissonance, David Brooks, delayed gratification, Edward Glaeser, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, estate planning, facts on the ground, game design, happiness index / gross national happiness, indoor plumbing, invisible hand, Mark Zuckerberg, medical residency, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, neurotypical, Occupy movement, place-making, Ponzi scheme, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, Ray Oldenburg, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steven Pinker, The Great Good Place, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Tony Hsieh, urban planning, Yogi Berra

For more on why we’re so bad at predicting what will make us happy, read Harvard’s Dan Gilbert: Daniel Gilbert, Stumbling on Happiness (New York: Knopf, 2006). 63. Finkel et al., “Online Dating: A Critical Analysis from the Perspective of Psychological Science.” 64. Matching personality traits do not predict the longevity of a relationship, according to a meta-analysis of 313 studies: R. Matthew Montoya, Robert S. Horton, and Jeffrey Kirchner, “Is Actual Similarity Necessary for Attraction? A Meta-analysis of Actual and Perceived Similarity,” Journal of Social and Personal Relationships 25, no. 6 (2008). 65. The following assertion appeared on eHarmony’s website in August 2012: “Our compatibility matching models are based on 35 years of clinical experience and rigorous scientific research into which characteristics between spouses are consistently associated with the most successful relationships.”

The twenty-strong team of international researchers who conducted this study found that the increased rate of early breastfeeding in the experimental group led to fewer digestive and skin ailments in the babies in the short term, and also to a boosted verbal IQ score in the long term, when these children were tested six years later.9 Presumably every parent wants clever children, and an average increase of 7.5 IQ points is nothing to sneeze at. So impressed were they with the data showing enhanced health and intelligence in breastfed babies that officials at the World Health Organization based its international breastfeeding strategy on a meta-analysis of these studies. This leads us to an uncomfortable question. If the majority of women in the West are giving up the practice before their infants can hold up their heads, what are they missing? I asked this question of Michael Kramer, the McGill-based pediatric epidemiologist who is the Belarusian study’s lead author. I also wanted to know what he thought was making the breastfed babies smarter.

Meanwhile, research shows that face-to-face contact with a skilled teacher for even one year of a child’s life has more impact on the child’s learning than any laptop program has had so far.22 If policymakers want to use resources wisely, it is clear that you get a lot more from parent and teacher training programs than you do from investing in expensive—and highly perishable—classroom technology.23 To be sure, there are wonderful pieces of educational software on the market, and well-trained teachers who know how to use them to advantage—mostly to target specific skills.24 But among the most vulnerable kids, the ones who most need a leg-up to succeed—primarily lower-income children, those with ADHD, and impulsive boys—what boosts achievement the most are initiatives that help them develop self-discipline and what psychologists call executive function, namely the ability to plan, to hold key bits of information in memory, and to be cognitively flexible, all while inhibiting their impulses. So, what helps school-age kids master those skills? Adele Diamond and Kathleen Lee, two Canadian psychologists, asked that question in a recent meta-analysis published in Science. They discovered that even the best computer programs, which build in increasing challenges as the child gains competence, succeeded at training kids one skill at a time. But that one skill didn’t transfer well to other areas. In other words, a program that trained kids on short-term memory didn’t help them with other types of tasks, including ones that included memory skills.

 

pages: 407 words: 109,653

Top Dog: The Science of Winning and Losing by Po Bronson, Ashley Merryman

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Asperger Syndrome, Berlin Wall, conceptual framework, crowdsourcing, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, Edward Glaeser, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fear of failure, game design, Jean Tirole, knowledge worker, loss aversion, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, phenotype, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, school choice, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Steve Jobs

Ibáñez, Enrique Ortega, Nuno Leite, & Jaime Sampaio, “An Analysis of Defensive Strategies Used by Home and Away Basketball Teams,” Perceptual & Motor Skills, vol. 110(1), pp. 159–166 (2010) Han, Ru, Shu Li, & Jian-Nong Shi, “The Territorial Prior-Residence Effect and Children’s Behavior in Social Dilemmas,” Environment & Behavior, vol. 41(5), pp. 644–657 (2009) Hansen, Darah, “How the Right Seat Can Reduce Office Stress,” Staff Blog, Vancouver Sun, http://bit.ly/pnxrnn (9/19/2011) Hirst, Alison, “Settlers, Vagrants and Mutual Indifference: Unintended Consequences of Hot-Desking,” Journal of Organizational Change Management, vol. 24(6), pp. 767–788 (2011) Ibáñez, Sergio J., Javier García, Sebastian Feu, Alberto Lorenzo, & Jaime Sampaio, “Effects of Consecutive Basketball Games on the Game-Related Statistics that Discriminate Winner and Losing Teams,” Journal of Sports Science & Medicine, vol. 8(3), pp. 458–462 (2009) Jamieson, Jeremy P., “The Home Field Advantage in Athletics: A Meta-Analysis,” Journal of Applied Social Psychology, vol. 40(7), pp. 1819–1848 (2010) Jansen, Friederike, Rebecca S. Heiming, Vanessa Kloke, Sylvia Kaiser, Rupert Palme, Klaus-Peter Lesch, & Norbert Sachser, “Away Game or Home Match: The Influence of Venue and Serotonin Transporter Genotype on the Display of Offensive Aggression,” Behavioural Brain Research, vol. 219(2), pp. 291–301 (2011) Jones, Marshall B., “Home Advantage in the NBA as a Game-Long Process,” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, vol. 3(4), art. 2 (2007) Koning, Ruud H., “Home Advantage in Speed Skating: Evidence from Individual Data,” Journal of Sports Sciences, vol. 23(4), pp. 417–427 (2005) Koyama, Mark, & J.

Findings Relating to Genetic Variations of COMT and Cognitive Functioning: In the scientific literature, the genetic variations of COMT are typically referred to as “met-met,” “val-val,” and “val-met,” referring the possible allele combinations. Someone with two methionine (“met”) instructions—the slower enzyme—would be “met-met.” Having two valine (“val”), and thus the faster enzyme processing, would be “val-val.” And val-met is naturally someone with one of each. Barnett, J. H., P. B. Jones, T. W. Robbins, & U. Müller, “Effects of the Catechol-O-Methyltransferase Val 158Met Polymorphism on Executive Function: A Meta-Analysis of the Wisconsin Card Sort Test in Schizophrenia and Healthy Controls,” Molecular Psychiatry, vol. 12(5), pp. 502–509 (2007) Barnett, Jennifer H., Jon Heron, Susan M. Ring, Jean Golding, David Goldman, Ke Xu, & Peter B. Jones, “Gender-Specific Effects of the Catechol-O-Methyltransferase Val108/158Met Polymorphism on Cognitive Function in Children,” American Journal of Psychiatry, vol. 164(1), pp. 142–149 (2007) Blasi, Giuseppe, Venkata S.

., Honus Wagner: The Life of Baseball’s “Flying Dutchman,” Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co. (1996) Mendelson, Abby, “Honus Wagner,” Pittsburgh Pirates, http://atmlb.com/PDax1p (2012) Society for American Baseball Research, The SABR Baseball List & Record Book: Baseball’s Most Fascinating Records, New York: Simon & Schuster (2007) “Statistics,” Major League Baseball, MLB.com, http://atmlb.com/Q65Z1w (2012) “Stealing Second → Stealing Third → Stealing Home,” Baseball Almanac, http://bit.ly/q2BoIm (2012) Sulloway, Frank J., Born to Rebel, New York: Vintage (1997) Sulloway, Frank, Interview with Author (2011) Sulloway, Frank J., & Richard L. Zweigenhaft, “Birth Order and Risk Taking in Athletics: A Meta-Analysis and Study of Major League Baseball,” Personality & Social Psychology Review, vol. 14(4), pp. 402–416 (2010) 4. Sibling Conflict: We dedicated an entire chapter of our book, NurtureShock, to sibling conflict. We invite you to look there for a fuller discussion of the nature of sibling arguments, research on how to respond to sibling quarreling, et cetera. (A couple of the studies briefly mentioned in this book, regarding the frequency of sibling quarrels, are addressed more fully in its pages, as well.)

 

pages: 236 words: 66,081

Cognitive Surplus: Creativity and Generosity in a Connected Age by Clay Shirky

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Andrew Keen, Brewster Kahle, Burning Man, citizen journalism, corporate social responsibility, Dean Kamen, experimental economics, experimental subject, fundamental attribution error, invention of movable type, invention of the telegraph, Kevin Kelly, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, Nicholas Carr, social software, Steve Ballmer, The Nature of the Firm, the scientific method, ultimatum game

In 1994, Judy Cameron and David Pierce of the University of Alberta analyzed the results of dozens of studies that had paid experimental subjects to perform various tasks. Their meta-analysis (as such studies of multiple experiments are called) denied the existence of any such crowding-out effect. Deci and research partner Richard Ryan responded in 1999, pointing out that Cameron and Pierce had included a large number of studies noting that people were more motivated to do uninteresting tasks if you paid them, a result no one disputed. What Deci had examined, rather, was intrinsic motivation for tasks a subject was interested in. Deci and Ryan’s own meta-analysis, which excluded boring tasks, again found a crowding-out effect. Cameron and Pierce’s second meta-analysis, in 2001, conceded that the crowding out of free choice can occur with the introduction of extrinsic motivations.

(Zuerichbergstrasse, Zurich: Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, 1999), http://ideas.repec.org/s/zur/iewwpx.html. 73 this sort of crowding out can appear in children as young as fourteen months: Tomasello’s research on children and their view of how things should be, by some ethical compass (a trait called “normativity,” or the understanding and abiding by norms), was published as “The Sources of Normativity: Young Children’s Awareness of the Normative Structure of Games,” with his coauthors, H. Rakoczy and F. Wameken, in Developmental Psychology 44.3 (2008): 875-81. 74 dozens of studies that had paid experimental subjects: Judy Cameron and David Pierce, “Reinforcement, Reward, and Intrinsic Motivation: A Meta-Analysis,” Review of Educational Research 64.3 (1994): 363-423. 74 people were more motivated to do uninteresting tasks if you paid them: Edward L., Deci, Richard Koestner, and Richard Ryan, “A Meta-Analytic Review of Experiments Examining the Effects of Extrinsic Rewards on Intrinsic Motivation,” Psychological Bulletin 125.6 (1999): 627-68. 74 crowding out of free choice can occur with the introduction of extrinsic motivations: J.

 

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Humans Are Underrated: What High Achievers Know That Brilliant Machines Never Will by Geoff Colvin

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Ada Lovelace, autonomous vehicles, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, Black Swan, call centre, capital asset pricing model, computer age, corporate governance, deskilling, en.wikipedia.org, Freestyle chess, future of work, Google Glasses, Grace Hopper, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, job automation, knowledge worker, low skilled workers, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Narrative Science, new economy, rising living standards, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, theory of mind, Tim Cook: Apple, transaction costs

See Adam Grant, Give and Take: Why Helping Others Drives Our Success (Penguin Books, 2013). In a company with a giver culture, Grant says . . . These quotations are from Grant, “Givers Take All: The Hidden Dimension of Corporate Culture,” McKinsey Quarterly, April 2013. A giant meta-analysis of studies involving 51,000 people . . . Nathan P. Podsakoff, Steven W. Whiting, Philip M. Podsakoff, Brian D. Blume, “Individual- and Organizational-Level Consequences of Organizational Citizenship Behaviors: A Meta-Analysis,” Journal of Applied Psychology 2009, vol. 94, no. 1, pp. 122–141, doi: 10.1037/a0013079. Grant reports how a firm called Appletree Answers . . . Grant, “Givers Take All.” In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks . . . J. Richard Hackman, Michael O’Connor, “What makes for a great analytic team?

In a taker culture, by contrast, “the norm is to get as much as possible from others while contributing less in return. Employees help only when they expect the personal benefits to exceed the costs.” And is that not the very definition of economic rationality? Yet which culture do you think produces better results? We all know the answer. Extensive research shows that the answer is even more impressive than we suspect. A giant meta-analysis of studies involving 51,000 people in companies found that giver behaviors were associated with higher productivity, efficiency, and profit; lower costs, employee turnover, and absenteeism; and greater customer satisfaction. The giver culture works even in environments where employees needn’t interact much, as discovered in that petri dish of organizational research, the call center. Grant reports how a firm called Appletree Answers was plagued by a 97 percent employee turnover rate, a common problem in that industry.

Michael Trimble concludes, in scientific language . . . Trimble, op. cit., p. 95. We’re built to function best on ten hours of sleep a night . . . James B. Maas, Power Sleep: How to Prepare Your Mind for Peak Performance (Villard, 1998), p. 6. A massive study of empathy in U.S. college students . . . Sara H. Konrath, Edward H. O’Brien, Courtney Hsing, “Changes in Dispositional Empathy in American College Students Over Time: A Meta-Analysis,” Personal and Social Psychology Review 15(2), pp. 180–198, doi: 10.1177/1088868310377395. As you would expect, higher narcissism . . . Konrath et al., op. cit., p. 183. Over the past several decades people in developed countries . . . Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community (Simon and Schuster, 2000). A well-known program, Roots of Empathy . . .

 

pages: 455 words: 116,578

The Power of Habit: Why We Do What We Do in Life and Business by Charles Duhigg

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Atul Gawande, Checklist Manifesto, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, delayed gratification, desegregation, game design, haute couture, impulse control, index card, meta analysis, meta-analysis, patient HM, pattern recognition, randomized controlled trial, rolodex, Rosa Parks, Silicon Valley, telemarketer, Tenerife airport disaster, Toyota Production System, transaction costs, Walter Mischel

Tournie, “Alcoholics Anonymous as Treatment and as Ideology,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol 40, no. 3 (1979): 230–39; P. E. Bebbington, “The Efficacy of Alcoholics Anonymous: The Elusiveness of Hard Data,” British Journal of Psychiatry 128 (1976): 572–80. 3.20 “It’s not obvious from the way they’re written” Emrick et al., “Alcoholics Anonymous: What Is Currently Known?”; J. S. Tonigan, R. Toscova, and W. R. Miller, “Meta-analysis of the Literature on Alcoholics Anonymous: Sample and Study Characteristics Moderate Findings,” Journal of Studies on Alcohol 57 (1995): 65–72; J. S. Tonigan, W. R. Miller, and G. J. Connors, “Project MATCH Client Impressions About Alcoholics Anonymous: Measurement Issues and Relationship to Treatment Outcome,” Alcoholism Treatment Quarterly 18 (2000): 25–41; J. S. Tonigan, “Spirituality and Alcoholics Anonymous,” Southern Medical Journal 100, no. 4 (2007): 437–40. 3.21 One particularly dramatic demonstration Heinze et al., “Counteracting Incentive Sensitization in Severe Alcohol Dependence Using Deep Brain Stimulation of the Nucleus Accumbens: Clinical and Basic Science Aspects,” Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 3, no. 22 (2009). 3.22 graduate student named Mandy “Mandy” is a pseudonym used by the author of the case study this passage draws from. 3.23 Mississippi State University B.

., “A Descriptive Study of Individuals Successful at Long-Term Maintenance of Substantial Weight Loss,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 66 (1997): 239–46; M. J. Mahoney, N. G. Moura, and T. C. Wade, “Relative Efficacy of Self-Reward, Self-Punishment, and Self-Monitoring Techniques for Weight Loss,” Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology 40 (1973): 404–7; M. J. Franz et al., “Weight Loss Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Weight-Loss Clinical Trials with a Minimum 1-Year Follow-up,” Journal of the American Dietetic Association 107 (2007): 1755–67; A. DelParigi et al., “Successful Dieters Have Increased Neural Activity in Cortical Areas Involved in the Control of Behavior,” International Journal of Obesity 31 (2007): 440–48. 4.26 researchers referred to as “grit” Jonah Lehrer, “The Truth About Grit,” The Boston Globe, August 2, 2009. 4.27 “despite failure, adversity, and plateaus in progress” A.

M. Tice, “Ego Depletion: A Resource Model of Volition, Self-Regulation, and Controlled Processing,” Social Cognition 74 (2000): 1252–65; Roy F. Baumeister and Mark Muraven, “Self-Regulation and Depletion of Limited Resources: Does Self-Control Resemble a Muscle?” Psychological Bulletin 126 (2000): 247–59; See also M. S. Hagger et al., “Ego Depletion and the Strength Model of Self-Control: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 136 (2010): 495–25; R. G. Baumeister, K. D. Vohs, and D. M. Tice, “The Strength Model of Self-Control,” Current Directions in Psychological Science 16 (2007): 351–55; M. I. Posne and M. K. Rothbart, “Developing Mechanisms of Self-Regulation,” Development and Psychopathology 12 (2000): 427–41; Roy F. Baumeister and Todd F. Heatherton, “Self-Regulation Failure: An Overview,” Psychological Inquiry 7 (1996): 1–15; Kathleen D.

 

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If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Happy? by Raj Raghunathan

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Broken windows theory, business process, cognitive dissonance, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, fundamental attribution error, job satisfaction, Mahatma Gandhi, market clearing, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, Phillip Zimbardo, placebo effect, science of happiness, Skype, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thorstein Veblen, Tony Hsieh, working poor, Zipcar

Pelled, “Employee Positive Emotion and Favorable Outcomes at the Workplace,” Organization Science 5(1) (1994): 51–71. Happy employees earn more: See E. Diener and R. Biswas-Diener, “Will Money Increase Subjective Well-being?,” Social Indicators Research 57(2) (2002): 119–69; see also M. Pinquart and S. Sörensen, “Influences of Socioeconomic Status, Social Network, and Competence on Subjective Well-being in Later Life: A Meta-analysis,” Psychology and Aging 15(2) (2000): 187. Happier (optimistic) CEOs: J. B. Foster et al., “Setting the Tone for Organizational Success: The Impact of CEO Affect on Organizational Climate and Firm-Level Outcomes,” 17th Annual Meeting of the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology, Toronto, Ontario, Canada, 2004. Happier CEOs receive higher performance ratings: M. A. Pritzker, “The Relationship Among CEO Dispositional Attributes, Transformational Leadership Behaviors and Performance Effectiveness” (doctoral dissertation, ProQuest Information & Learning, 2002).

selectively upload . . . most flattering images: Chou and Edge (2012) showed that those who spend more time on Facebook are more likely to believe that other people are leading better lives. H. T. G. Chou and N. Edge, “‘They Are Happier and Having Better Lives than I Am’: The Impact of Using Facebook on Perceptions of Others’ Lives,” Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking 15(2) (2012): 117–21. Facebook triggers more negative feelings: C. Huang, “Internet Use and Psychological Well-being: A Meta-analysis,” Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking 13(3) (2010): 241–49. For a more reader-friendly review of the literature on the impact of exposure to social media on well-being, see www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/how-facebook-makes-us-unhappy. That said, however, social media may also have a positive impact on people’s moods. Findings from one of the largest-ever studies of Facebook—involving over a billion updates on the website—found that positive emotions spread faster than do negative ones.

have to master that domain: As made popular by Malcolm Gladwell in Outliers, researchers agree that, in general, it takes about ten thousand hours (or about ten years) of practice to master a domain; K. A. Ericsson, R. T. Krampe, and C. Tesch-Römer, “The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance,” Psychological Review 100(3) (1993): 363. Note, however, that there are exceptions to this general rule; see B. N. Macnamara, D. Z. Hambrick, and F. L. Oswald, “Deliberate Practice and Performance in Music, Games, Sports, Education, and Professions: A Meta-analysis,” Psychological Science 25(8) (2014): 1608–18. flow doesn’t . . . come at . . . cost of another’s: This reason was mentioned to me in the interview that I did with Professor Csikszentmihalyi, which can be accessed at https://www.coursera.org/learn/happiness/lecture/hMLNh/week-2-video-7-why-flow-en hances-happiness. See also Moulard et al. (2014), who suggest that people who are motivated by their true passions as opposed to external motivations such as prestige or profits hold an esteemed place because they are perceived as more authentic and less superficial; J.

 

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Hooked: How to Build Habit-Forming Products by Nir Eyal

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Airbnb, AltaVista, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, en.wikipedia.org, framing effect, game design, Google Glasses, Inbox Zero, invention of the telephone, iterative process, Jeff Bezos, Lean Startup, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Oculus Rift, Paul Buchheit, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, QWERTY keyboard, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Snapchat, TaskRabbit, telemarketer, Toyota Production System, Y Combinator

As part of a French study, researchers wanted to know if they could influence how much money people handed to a total stranger asking for bus fare by using just a few specially encoded words. They discovered a technique so simple and effective it doubled the amount people gave. The turn of phrase has not only proven to increase how much bus fare people give, but has also been effective in boosting charitable donations and participation in voluntary surveys. In fact, a recent meta-analysis of 42 studies involving over 22,000 participants concluded that these few words, placed at the end of a request, are a highly-effective way to gain compliance, doubling the likelihood of people saying “yes.” [xcii] The magic words the researchers discovered? The phrase, “but you are free to accept or refuse.” The “but you are free” technique demonstrates how we are more likely to be persuaded when our ability to choose is reaffirmed.

To help the app spread, a new verse greets the reader on the first page. Below the verse, a large blue button reads, “Share Verse of the Day.” One click and the daily scripture is blasted to Facebook or Twitter. The drivers behind recently read scripture have not been widely studied. However, one reason may be the reward portraying oneself in a positive light, also known as the “humblebrag.” [cxxviii] A Harvard meta-analysis entitled “Disclosing information about the self is intrinsically rewarding” found the act, “engages neural and cognitive mechanisms associated with reward.” [cxxix] In fact, sharing feels so good that one study found “individuals were willing to forgo money to disclose about the self.” There are many opportunities to share verse from within the Bible app, but one of Gruenewald’s most effective distribution channels is not online but in-row — that is, in the pews where church-goers sit side by side every week.

title=Jason_Calacanis&oldid=579577057). https://www.quantcast.com/mahalo.com [xc] Cluley, Graham. “Creepy Quora Erodes Users’ Privacy, Reveals What You Have Read.” Naked Security. Accessed December 1, 2013. http://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2012/08/09/creepy-quora-erodes-users-privacy-reveals-what-you-have-read/. [xci] “Removing Feed Stories About Views.” Quora. Accessed November 12, 2013. http://www.quora.com/permalink/gG922bywy. [xcii] Carpenter, Christopher J. “A Meta-Analysis of the Effectiveness of the ‘But You Are Free’ Compliance-Gaining Technique.” Communication Studies 64, no. 1 (2013): 6–17. doi:10.1080/10510974.2012.727941. [xciii] Hamari, Juho. “Social Aspects Play an Important Role in Gamification.” Gamification Research Network. Accessed November 13, 2013. http://gamification-research.org/2013/07/social-aspects/. [xciv] Adalian, Josef. “Breaking Bad Returns to Its Biggest Ratings Ever.”

 

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Good Calories, Bad Calories: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom on Diet, Weight Control, and Disease by Gary Taubes

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Albert Einstein, California gold rush, cognitive dissonance, collaborative editing, Drosophila, experimental subject, Gary Taubes, invention of agriculture, John Snow's cholera map, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, placebo effect, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Robert Gordon, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, unbiased observer, Upton Sinclair

One other method can be employed to judge the validity of the hypotheses that dietary fat or saturated fat causes heart disease, and that cholesterol-lowering diets prevent it. This is a technique known as meta-analysis, viewed as a kind of last epidemiological resort in these kinds of medical and public-health controversies: if the existing studies give ambiguous results, the true size of a benefit or harm may be assessed by pooling the data from all the studies in such a way as to gain what’s known as statistical power. Meta-analysis is controversial in its own right. Investigators can choose, for instance, which studies to include in their meta-analysis, either consciously or subconsciously, based on which ones are most likely to give them the desired result. For this reason, a collaboration of seventy-seven scientists from eleven countries founded the Cochrane Collaboration in 1993.

The founders, led by Iain Chalmers of Oxford University, believed that meta-analyses could be so easily biased by researchers’ prejudices that they needed a standardized methodology to minimize the influence of such prejudice, and they needed a venue that would allow for the publication of impartial reviews. The Cochrane Collaboration methodology makes it effectively impossible for researchers to influence a meta-analysis by the criteria they use to include or exclude studies. Cochrane Collaboration reviews must include all studies that fit a prespecified set of criteria, and they must exclude all that don’t. In 2001, the Cochrane Collaboration published a review of “reduced or modified dietary fat for preventing cardiovascular disease.” The authors combed the literature for all possibly relevant studies and identified twenty-seven that were performed with sufficient controls and rigor to be considered meaningful.*26 These trials encompassed some ten thousand subjects followed for an average of three years each.

Cholesterol, stroke, and Japan: Blackburn and Jacobs 1989. Framingham investigators provided: Anderson et al. 1987. Most striking result: Ibid. The NHLBI workshop: Jacobs et al. 1992. Footnote. Hulley et al. 1992. Rifkind’s interpretation: Interview, Basil Rifkind. Cf. Jacobs et al. 1992. “Questions should be pursued…”: Jacobs et al. 1992. Feynman’s lectures: Feynman 1967 (“…if your bias…” and “…absolutely sure…,” 147).83 Meta-analysis: Mann 1990 provides a good review. Cochrane Collaboration: Taubes 1996; the Cochrane Collaboration Web site (www.cochrane.org). “reduced or modified…”: Hooper et al. 2001. “A major lesson…”: Keys 1975. “The pooled effects suggest…”: Ebrahim et al. 2006. Evidence indeed suggested: Malmros 1950; Schornagel 1953; Vartiainen and Kanerva 1947. PART TWO: THE CARBOHYDRATE HYPOTHESIS Epigraph.

 

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The Cancer Chronicles: Unlocking Medicine's Deepest Mystery by George Johnson

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Atul Gawande, Cepheid variable, Columbine, dark matter, discovery of DNA, double helix, Drosophila, epigenetics, Gary Taubes, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, Isaac Newton, Magellanic Cloud, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, mouse model, Murray Gell-Mann, phenotype, profit motive, stem cell

[http://www.aacr.org/home/public-media.aspx] CHAPTER 2 Nancy’s Story 1. two-thirds of cancer cases are preventable: See, for example, World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research, Food, Nutrition, Physical Activity, and the Prevention of Cancer: A Global Perspective (Washington, DC: AICR, 2007), xxv. [http://www.dietandcancerreport.org] 2. the argument is weak at best: Miguel A. Sanjoaquin et al., “Folate Intake and Colorectal Cancer Risk: A Meta-analytical Approach,” International Journal of Cancer 113, no. 5 (February 20, 2005): 825–28 [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15499620]; Susanna C. Larsson, Edward Giovannucci, and Alicja Wolk, “Folate and Risk of Breast Cancer: A Meta-analysis,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 99, no. 1 (January 3, 2007): 64–76 [http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/99/1/64.abstract]; and Jane C. Figueiredo et al., “Folic Acid and Risk of Prostate Cancer: Results from a Randomized Clinical Trial,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 101, no. 6 (March 18, 2009): 432–35. [http://jnci.oxfordjournals.org/content/101/6/432.short] 3. folic acid … can increase cancer risk: See, for example, Figueiredo et al., “Folic Acid and Risk of Prostate Cancer”; and Marta Ebbing et al., “Cancer Incidence and Mortality After Treatment with Folic Acid and Vitamin B12,” JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association 302, no. 19 (November 18, 2009): 2119–26.

Ames, “Dietary Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens,” Science 221, no. 4617 (September 23, 1983): 1256–64. [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6351251] 23. eating a lot of red meat: The calculation is for a fifty-year-old. See Teresa Norat et al., “Meat, Fish, and Colorectal Cancer Risk,” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 97, no. 12 (June 15, 2005): 906–16; [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15956652] and Doris S. M. Chan et al., “Red and Processed Meat and Colorectal Cancer Incidence: Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies,” PLOS ONE 6, no. 6 (June 6, 2011). [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3108955] 24. from 1.28 percent to 1.7 percent: Norat et al., “Meat, Fish, and Colorectal Cancer Risk.” 25. fish, fish oils, and colon cancer prevention: For evidence that eating fish discourages cancer by encouraging apoptosis and impeding cellular proliferation, see Youngmi Cho et al., “A Chemoprotective Fish Oil- and Pectin-Containing Diet Temporally Alters Gene Expression Profiles in Exfoliated Rat Colonocytes Throughout Oncogenesis,” Journal of Nutrition 141, no. 6 (June 1, 2011): 1029–35.

Kvinnsland, “Prospective Study of Height, Body Mass Index and Risk of Breast Cancer,” Acta Oncologica 31, no. 2 (1992): 195–200. [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1622634] 41. oral contraceptives may slightly raise the odds: “Oral Contraceptives and Cancer Risk,” National Cancer Institute, reviewed March 21, 2012. 42. Alcohol … with digestive cancers: The evidence for esophageal, liver, and other cancers is examined in Vincenzo Bagnardi et al., “Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Cancer: A Meta-Analysis,” Alcohol Research and Health: The Journal of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism 25, no. 4 (2001): 263–70. [http://pubs.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/arh25-4/263-270.htm] 43. the risk from hepatitis viruses: Heather M. Colvin and Abigail E. Mitchell, eds., Hepatitis and Liver Cancer (Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2010), 29–30. [http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?

 

pages: 369 words: 90,630

Mindwise: Why We Misunderstand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want by Nicholas Epley

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affirmative action, airport security, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Cass Sunstein, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, friendly fire, invisible hand, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, payday loans, Peter Singer: altruism, pirate software, Richard Thaler, school choice, the scientific method, theory of mind

American Psychologist 60: 581–92. 22. Actually, in all but one culture. One sample in Spain showed results in the same direction, but it was not statistically significant. Overall, the gender differences were large and consistent. None are in the opposite direction. 23. Hyde, J. S. (2005). The gender similarities hypothesis. American Psychologist 60: 581–92. Hyde’s main evidence is based on a meta-analysis of as many published reports of studies that tallied results by gender as she could find, assessing gender effects across several different categories: cognitive variables (math, memory, overall intelligence, spatial skills), verbal and nonverbal communication (talkativeness, language ability, smiling), social and personality variables (physical and verbal aggression, leadership style and skill, extroversion), psychological well-being (happiness, anxiety, self-esteem, depression), and motor skills (throwing velocity and distance, running speed, activity level).

Cognition 111: 138–43; Rosset, E. (2008). It’s no accident: Our bias for intentional explanations. Cognition 108: 771–80. 22. Gilbert, D. T., B. W. Pelham, and D. S. Krull (1988). On cognitive busyness: When person perceivers meet persons perceived. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54: 733–40. 23. Steblay, N., et al. (2006). The impact on juror verdicts of judicial instruction to disregard inadmissible evidence: A meta-analysis. Law and Human Behavior 30: 469–92. 24. Kassin, S. M., and H. Sukel (1997). Coerced confessions and the jury: An experimental test of the “harmless error” rule. Law and Human Behavior 21: 27–46; Kassin, S. M., D. Bogart, and J. Kerner (2012). Confessions that corrupt: Evidence from the DNA exoneration case files. Psychological Science 23: 41–45; Wallace, D. B., and S. M. Kassin (2012). Harmless error analysis: How do judges respond to confession errors?

Schmid Mast (2007). Sources of accuracy in the empathic accuracy paradigm. Emotion 7: 438–46; Reinhard, M. A., et al. (2011). Listening, not watching: Situational familiarity and the ability to detect deception. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 101: 467–84. 5. Blanch-Hartigan, D., S. A. Andrzejewski, and K. M. Hill (2012). The effectiveness of training to improve person perception: A meta-analysis. Basic and Applied Social Psychology 34: 483–98. 6. Lopata, C., et al. (2008). Effectiveness of a manualized summer social treatment program for high-functioning children with autism spectrum disorders. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders 38: 890–904; McKenzie, K., et al. (2000). Impact of group training on emotion recognition in individuals with a learning disability. British Journal of Learning Disabilities 28: 143–47; Moffatt, C.

 

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Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking by Susan Cain

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8-hour work day, Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, call centre, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, game design, hive mind, index card, indoor plumbing, Isaac Newton, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Mahatma Gandhi, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, new economy, popular electronics, Ralph Waldo Emerson, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, telemarketer, The Wisdom of Crowds, traveling salesman, Walter Mischel, web application, white flight

It may be “simply a reflection of the populations sampled and included.” In fact, a wholly separate survey, this one using the Eysenck Personality Inventory and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire rather than the Myers-Briggs test, indicates that extraversion scores have increased over time (from 1966 to 1993) for both men and women: see Jean M. Twenge, “Birth Cohort Changes in Extraversion: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis, 1966–1993,” Personality and Individual Differences 30 (2001): 735–48. 14. United States is among the most extroverted of nations: This has been noted in two studies: (1) Juri Allik and Robert R. McCrae, “Toward a Geography of Personality Traits: Patterns of Profiles Across 36 Cultures,” Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology 35 (2004): 13–28; and (2) Robert R. McCrae and Antonio Terracciano, “Personality Profiles of Cultures: Aggregate Personality Traits,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 89:3 (2005): 407–25. 15.

MacKinnon, “The Nature and Nurture of Creative Talent” (Walter Van Dyke Bingham Lecture given at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, April 11, 1962). See also MacKinnon, “Personality and the Realization of Creative Potential,” Presidential Address presented at Western Psychological Association, Portland, Oregon, April 1964. 4. One of the most interesting findings: See, for example, (1) Gregory J. Feist, “A Meta-Analysis of Personality in Scientific and Artistic Creativity,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 2, no. 4 (1998): 290–309; (2) Feist, “Autonomy and Independence,” Encyclopedia of Creativity, vol. 1 (San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1999), 157–63; and (3) Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, Creativity: Flow and the Psychology of Discovery and Invention (New York: Harper Perennial, 1996), 65–68. There are some studies showing a correlation between extroversion and creativity, but in contrast to the studies by MacKinnon, Csikszentmihalyi, and Feist, which followed people whose careers had proven them to be exceptionally creative “in real life,” these tend to be studies of college students measuring subjects’ creativity in more casual ways, for example by analyzing their personal hobbies or by asking them to play creativity games like writing a story about a picture.

(Note also that the link between the short allele of the SERT gene and depression in humans is well discussed but somewhat controversial.) 38. thought to be associated with high reactivity and introversion: Seth J. Gillihan et al., “Association Between Serotonin Transporter Genotype and Extraversion,” Psychiatric Genetics 17, no. 6 (2007): 351–54. See also M. R. Munafo et al., “Genetic Polymorphisms and Personality in Healthy Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” Molecular Psychiatry 8 (2003): 471–84. And see Cecilie L. Licht et al., “Association Between Sensory Processing Sensitivity and the 5-HTTLPR Short/Short Genotype.” 39. has speculated that these high-reactive monkeys: Dobbs, “The Science of Success.” 40. adolescent girls with the short allele of the SERT gene … less anxiety on calm days: Belsky et al., “Vulnerability Genes or Plasticity Genes?”

 

pages: 293 words: 81,183

Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Make a Difference by William MacAskill

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barriers to entry, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Cal Newport, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, effective altruism, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, follow your passion, food miles, immigration reform, income inequality, index fund, Isaac Newton, job automation, job satisfaction, labour mobility, Lean Startup, M-Pesa, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Nate Silver, Peter Singer: altruism, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, randomized controlled trial, self-driving car, Skype, Stanislav Petrov, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, universal basic income, women in the workforce

(For a sanity check, remember that even the very poorest people in the world live on sixty cents per day; if it cost ten dollars to save a life, then we’d have to suppose that they or their family members couldn’t save up for a few weeks, or take out a loan, in order to pay for the lifesaving product.) Claims of a program’s effectiveness are more reliable when grounded in academic studies. If there’s been a meta-analysis—a study of the studies—that’s even better. Even then, there can be cause for concern because the program that a charity implements might be subtly different from the programs that were studied in the meta-analysis. Knowing that, it’s even better if the charity has done its own independently audited or peer-reviewed randomized controlled evaluations of its programs. Robustness of evidence is very important for the simple reason that many programs don’t work, and it’s hard to distinguish the programs that don’t work from the programs that do.

; Maria Kuecken and Anne-Marie Valfort, “When Do Textbooks Matter for Achievement?” Economic Letters, 2013; Glewwe and Kremer, “Schools, Teachers, and Education Outcomes in Developing Countries,” in Eric A. Hanushek and F. Welch (eds.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, vol. 2, (New York: Elsevier, 2006), 945–1017; Patrick McEwan, “Improving Learning in Primary Schools of Developing Countries: A Meta-Analysis of Randomised Experiments,” unpublished paper. The American Cancer Society spends: American Cancer Society, “Stewardship Report,” 2013, 44, http://www.cancer.org/acs/groups/content/@corporatecommunications/documents/document/acspc-041227.pdf. The ALS Association (of ice-bucket-challenge fame) spends: ALS Association, “Annual Report,” 2014, 3, http://www.alsa.org/assets/pdfs/annual_report_fy2014.pdf.

 

pages: 235 words: 62,862

Utopia for Realists: The Case for a Universal Basic Income, Open Borders, and a 15-Hour Workweek by Rutger Bregman

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autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Branko Milanovic, cognitive dissonance, computer age, conceptual framework, credit crunch, David Graeber, Diane Coyle, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Levy and Richard Murnane: The New Division of Labor, full employment, George Gilder, happiness index / gross national happiness, Henry Ford's grandson gave labor union leader Walter Reuther a tour of the company’s new, automated factory…, income inequality, invention of gunpowder, James Watt: steam engine, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, Kodak vs Instagram, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, low skilled workers, means of production, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, minimum wage unemployment, Mont Pelerin Society, Nathan Meyer Rothschild: antibiotics, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, precariat, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, stem cell, Steven Pinker, telemarketer, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, wage slave, War on Poverty, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, wikimedia commons, women in the workforce, working poor, World Values Survey

A 2013 study estimated the costs of child poverty in the U.S. at as much as $500 billion a year. Kids who grow up poor end up with two years’ less educational attainment, work 450 fewer hours per year, and run three times the risk of all-round bad health than those raised in families that are well off. Investments in education won’t really help these kids, the researchers say.16 They have to get above the poverty line first. A recent meta-analysis of 201 studies on the effectiveness of financial education came to a similar conclusion: Such education makes almost no difference at all.17 This is not to say no one learns anything – poor people can come out wiser, for sure. But it’s not enough. “It’s like teaching a person to swim and then throwing them in a stormy sea,” laments Professor Shafir. Educating people certainly isn’t entirely pointless, but it can only go so far in helping them to manage their mental bandwidth, already taxed, as it is, by demands like the impossible bureaucratic mire of the welfare state.

One study showed that hospital interns make five times as many diagnostic errors when working excessively long weeks compared to normal workweeks. Christopher P. Landrigan et al., “Effect of Reducing Interns’ Work Hours on Serious Medical Errors in Intensive Care Units.” The New England Journal of Medicine (October 2004). http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa041406 There is also a mountain of research attesting that working too hard is bad for health. See the meta-analysis: Kate Sparks et al., “The Effects of Hours of Work on Health: A Meta-Analytic Review,” Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology (August 2011). http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2044-8325.1997.tb00656.x/abstract 42. Jon C. Messenger and Naj Ghosheh, “Work Sharing during the Great Recession” (International Labour Organization). http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_187627.pdf 43.

Daniel Patrick Moynihan, “Speech on Welfare Reform” (September 16, 1995) http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/politics/danielpatrickmoynihansspee.html 31. Beyond this, Nixon’s plan, once implemented, would have been difficult to repeal as it would have rapidly garnered widespread support. “New policies create new politics,” writes Steensland (p. 220). 32. Steensland, p. 226. 33. Steensland, p. x. 34. In a large meta-analysis of 93 European programs, no or negative effects were found in at least half. See: Frans den Butter and Emil Mihaylov, “Activerend arbeidsmarktbeleid is vaak niet effectief,” ESB (April 2008). http://personal.vu.nl/f.a.g.den.butter/activerendarbmarktbeleid2008.pdf 35. Stephen Kastoryano and Bas van der Klaauw, “Dynamic Evaluation of Job Search Assistance,” IZA Discussion Papers (June 15, 2011). http://www.roa.nl/seminars/pdf2012/BasvanderKlaauw.pdf 36.

 

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The Organized Mind: Thinking Straight in the Age of Information Overload by Daniel J. Levitin

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airport security, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Anton Chekhov, big-box store, business process, call centre, Claude Shannon: information theory, cloud computing, cognitive bias, complexity theory, computer vision, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Eratosthenes, Exxon Valdez, framing effect, friendly fire, fundamental attribution error, Golden Gate Park, Google Glasses, haute cuisine, impulse control, index card, indoor plumbing, information retrieval, invention of writing, iterative process, jimmy wales, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, life extension, meta analysis, meta-analysis, more computing power than Apollo, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, phenotype, placebo effect, pre–internet, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, Skype, Snapchat, statistical model, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, Turing test, ultimatum game

educational attainment Hampson, S. E., Goldberg, L. R., Vogt, T. M., & Dubanoski, J. P. (2007). Mechanisms by which childhood personality traits influence adult health status: Educational attainment and healthy behaviors. Health Psychology, 26(1), 121–125, p. 121. criteria related to career success Barrick, M. R., & Mount, M. K. (1991). The big five personality dimensions and job performance: A meta-analysis. Personnel Psychology, 44(1), 1–26. and, Roberts, B. W., Chernyshenko, O. S., Stark, S., & Goldberg, L. R. (2005). The structure of conscientiousness: An empirical investigation based on seven major personality questionnaires. Personnel Psychology, 58(1), 103–139. better recovery outcomes following surgery Kamran, F. (2013). Does conscientiousness increase quality of life among renal transplant recipients?

Students who studied for an exam Farnsworth, P. R. (1934). Examinations in familiar and unfamiliar surroundings. The Journal of Social Psychology, 5(1), 128–129. and, Smith, S. M. (1979). Remembering in and out of context. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 5(5), 460–471, p. 460. and, Smith, S. M., & Vela, E. (2001). Environmental context-dependent memory: A review and meta-analysis. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 8(2), 203–220. brain simply wasn’t designed I’m using the term designed loosely; the brain wasn’t designed, it evolved as a collection of special-purpose processing modules. 1941 by the Oxford Filing Supply Company Jonas, F. D. (1942). U.S. Patent No. 2305710 A. East Williston, NY. U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Related patents by Jonas and Oxford include US2935204, 2312717, 2308077, 2800907, 3667854, 2318077, and many others.

Sexual and Marital Therapy 8(3), 243–253. Intimacy, love, and passion . . . belong to completely different, multidimensional constructs Acker, M., & Davis, M. H. (1992). Intimacy, passion and commitment in adult romantic relationships: A test of the triangular theory of love. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 9(1), 21–50. and, Graham, J. M. (2011). Measuring love in romantic relationships: A meta-analysis. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 28(6), 748–771. and, Sternberg, R. J. (1986). A triangular theory of love. Psychological Review, 93(2), 119. Just like our chimpanzee cousins Hare, B., Call, J., & Tomasello, M. (2006). Chimpanzees deceive a human competitor by hiding. Cognition, 101(3), 495–514. and, McNally, L., & Jackson, A. L. (2013). Cooperation creates selection for tactical deception.

 

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The Patient Will See You Now: The Future of Medicine Is in Your Hands by Eric Topol

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23andMe, 3D printing, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Anne Wojcicki, Atul Gawande, augmented reality, bioinformatics, call centre, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, computer vision, conceptual framework, connected car, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, dark matter, data acquisition, disintermediation, don't be evil, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, Firefox, global village, Google Glasses, Google X / Alphabet X, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, interchangeable parts, Internet of things, Isaac Newton, job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, Julian Assange, Kevin Kelly, license plate recognition, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, Nate Silver, natural language processing, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, obamacare, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, placebo effect, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, Smart Cities: Big Data, Civic Hackers, and the Quest for a New Utopia, Snapchat, social graph, speech recognition, stealth mode startup, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Turing test, Uber for X, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, X Prize

McFadden, “Cholesterol Overhaul,” New York Times, July 8, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2012/07/08/opinion/sunday/the-strip.html. 55. H. E. Bloomfield et al., “Screening Pelvic Examinations in Asymptomatic, Average-Risk Adult Women: An Evidence Report for a Clinical Practice Guideline from the American College of Physicians,” Annals of Internal Medicine 161 (2014): 46–53. 56. L. T. Krogsbøll et al., “General Health Checks in Adults for Reducing Morbidity and Mortality from Disease: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” British Medical Journal 345 (2012): e7191. 57. C. Lane, “The NIMH Withdraws Support for DSM-5,” Psychology Today, May 4, 2013, http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/side-effects/201305/the-nimh-withdraws-support-dsm-5. 58. D. W. Bianchi et al., “DNA Sequencing versus Standard Prenatal Aneuploidy Screening,” New England Journal of Medicine 370, no. 9 (2014): 799–808. 59. N. Biller-Andorno and P.

“Choosing Wisely: Five Things Physicians and Patients Should Question,” ABIM Foundation, accessed August 19, 2014, http://www.choosingwisely.org/doctor-patient-lists/. 70. V. M. Rao and D. C. Levin, “The Overuse of Diagnostic Imaging and the Choosing Wisely Initiative,” Annals of Internal Medicine 157, no. 8 (2012): 574–577. 71. L. T. Krogsbøll et al., “General Health Checks in Adults for Reducing Morbidity and Mortality from Disease: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” British Medical Journal 345 (2012): e7191. 72. S. R. Johnson, “Reducing Wasteful Care,” Modern Healthcare, August 24, 2013, http://www.modernhealthcare.com/article/20130824/MAGAZINE/308249974. 73. L. M. Schwartz and S. Woloshin, “Endless Screenings Don’t Bring Everlasting Health,” New York Times, April 17, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/17/health/views/endless-screenings-dont-bring-everlasting-health.html. 74.

Havele, “Why Patients Need to Be Treated like Consumers,” Rock Health, January 28, 2014, http://rockhealth.com/2014/01/why-patients-need-to-be-treated-like-consumers-qa-noah-lang/. 59. B. Mannino, “Do You Really Need an Annual Physical?,” Fox Business, August 24, 2012, http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2012/08/24/do-really-need-annual-physical/. 60. L. T. Krogsbøll et al., “General Health Checks in Adults for Reducing Morbidity and Mortality from Disease: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” British Medical Journal 345 (2012): e7191. 61. E. Klein, “The Two Most Important Numbers in American Health Care,” Washington Post, September 19, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/19/the-two-most-important-numbers-in-american-health-care/?print=1. 62. S. Lohr, “Salesforce Takes Its Cloud Model to Health Care,” New York Times, June 26, 2014, http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/06/26/salesforce-takes-its-cloud-model-to-health-care/. 63.

 

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Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis by Robert D. Putnam

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correlation does not imply causation, deindustrialization, demographic transition, desegregation, ending welfare as we know it, epigenetics, full employment, George Akerlof, helicopter parent, impulse control, income inequality, index card, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, Occupy movement, Ralph Waldo Emerson, randomized controlled trial, school choice, Socratic dialogue, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the built environment, upwardly mobile, Walter Mischel, white flight, working poor

Henderson and Nancy Berla, A New Generation of Evidence: The Family Is Critical to Student Achievement (Washington, DC: National Committee for Citizens in Education, 1994), 1. Other recent overviews of the vast literature on the effects of parental engagement include William H. Jeynes, “The Relationship Between Parental Involvement and Urban Secondary School Student Academic Achievement: A Meta-Analysis,” Urban Education 42 (January 2007): 82–110; Nancy E. Hill and Diana F. Tyson, “Parental Involvement in Middle School: A Meta-Analytic Assessment of the Strategies That Promote Achievement,” Developmental Psychology 45 (May 2009): 740–63; William Jeynes, “A Meta-Analysis of the Efficacy of Different Types of Parental Involvement Programs for Urban Students,” Urban Education 47 (July 2004): 706–42; Frances L. Van Voorhis, Michelle F. Maier, Joyce L. Epstein, and Chrishana M. Lloyd with Therese Leung, The Impact of Family Involvement on the Education of Children Ages 3 to 8: A Focus on Literacy and Math Achievement Outcomes and Socio-Emotional Skills (New York: MDRC, 2013), accessed June 16, 2014, http://www.mdrc.org/sites/default/files/The_Impact_of_Family_Involvement_FR.pdf; and Mikaela J.

Logan, Elisabeta Minca, and Sinem Adar, “The Geography of Inequality: Why Separate Means Unequal in American Public Schools,” Sociology of Education 85 (July 2012): 287–301; and for a comprehensive recent overview, Gregory J. Palardy, “High School Socioeconomic Segregation and Student Attainment,” American Educational Research Journal 50 (August 2013): 714–54. Reyn van Ewijk and Peter Sleegers, “The Effect of Peer Socioeconomic Status on Student Achievement: A Meta-Analysis,” Educational Research Review 5 (June 2010): 134–50, found that the effect of the socioeconomic composition of a child’s classroom on his or her test scores is twice as large as the effect of the socioeconomic composition of his or her school. This entire line of research was stimulated in the 1960s by concerns about the effects of racial segregation, and in that era class segregation heavily overlapped with racial segregation.

Ferguson, “Pathways to Prosperity: Meeting the Challenge of Preparing Young Americans for the 21st Century” (report for the Pathways to Prosperity project, Harvard School of Graduate Education, 2011); Ben Olinsky and Sarah Ayres, “Training for Success: A Policy to Expand Apprenticeships in the United States” (report for the Center for American Progress, December 2013), accessed October 12, 2014, http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/apprenticeship_report.pdf; Robert I. Lerman, “Expanding Apprenticeship Opportunities in the United States” (report for the Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, 2014); David Card, Jochen Kluve and Andrea Weber, “Active Labour Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis,” Economic Journal 120 (November 2010): F452–F477; Katherine S. Newman and Hella Winston, Learning to Labor in the 21st Century: Building the Next Generation of Skilled Workers (New York: Metropolitan, forthcoming 2015). YouthBuild has shown positive results in nonexperimental research; see, for example, Wally Abrazaldo et al., “Evaluation of the YouthBuild Youth Offender Grants: Final Report,” Social Policy Research Associates (May 2009).

 

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The Rise and Fall of Modern Medicine by M. D. James le Fanu M. D.

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Barry Marshall: ulcers, clean water, cuban missile crisis, discovery of penicillin, double helix, experimental subject, Gary Taubes, Isaac Newton, meta analysis, meta-analysis, rising living standards, stem cell, telerobotics, The Design of Experiments, the scientific method, V2 rocket

, BMJ, 2 April 1949, pp. 557–60. 4.Richard Horton, ‘A Manifesto for Reading Medicine’, The Lancet, 1997, Vol. 349, pp. 872–3. 5.Sandra J. Tanenbaum, ‘What Physicians Know’, NEJM, 1993, Vol. 329, pp. 1268–71. See also Gilbert M. Goldman, ‘The Tacit Dimension of Clinical Judgement’, Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine, 1993, Vol. 63, pp. 47–61. 6.Editorial, ‘Meta-analysis Under Scrutiny’, The Lancet, 1997, Vol. 350, p. 675. See also Samuel Shapiro, ‘Meta-analysis/Schmeta-analysis’, American Journal of Epidemiology, 1994, Vol. 140, pp. 771–8. 7.Editorial, ‘A Meeting Too Many’, The Lancet, 1998, Vol. 352, p. 1161. 8.James McCormick, ‘Death of the Personal Doctor’, The Lancet, 1996, Vol. 2, pp. 667–8. Introduction: Ten Years On REFERENCES 1.Office of Health Economics, Compendium of Health Statistics 20th Edition (Office of Health Economics, 2010). 2.H.

Dudley, ‘The Controlled Clinical Trial and the Advance of Reliable Knowledge: An Outsider Looks In’, BMJ, 1983, Vol. 287, pp. 957–60; correspondence, M. Baum et al., BMJ, 1983, Vol. 287, pp. 1216–18; Bruce G. Charlton, ‘The Future of Clinical Research: From Mega-trials Towards Methodological Rigour and Representative Sampling’, Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 1996, Vol. 2, pp. 159–69; John C. Bailar, ‘The Promise and Problems of Meta-analysis’, NEJM, 1997, Vol. 337, pp. 559–61; S. Blinkhorn, ‘Meta Better’, Nature, 1998, Vol. 392, pp. 671–2. 4: 1952: Chlorpromazine and the Revolution in Psychiatry GENERAL READING Arvid Carlsson, Annual Review of Neuroscience, 1978, Vol. 10, pp. 19–40. David Healy, ‘The History of British Psychopharmacology’, 150 Years of British Psychiatry, Vol. 2: The Aftermath, ed. Hugh Freeman and German E.

Results from the National Comorbility Survey’, Archives of General Psychiatry, 1994, Vol. 51, pp. 8–19. 16.Alisdair Santhouse, ‘The Person in the Patient’, BMJ, 428:a2262. 17.Quoted in Jackie Law, Big Pharma: How the World’s Biggest Drug Companies Control Illness (Constable, 2006). 18.Cheryll Barron, ‘Big Pharma Snared by Net’, Observer, 26 September 2004. 19.Jackie Law, Big Pharma: How the World’s Biggest Drug Companies Control Illness (Constable, 2006). 20.Irvine Kirsch, 2009, The Emperor’s New Drugs (Bodley Head, 2009). 21.Dr Malcolm Kendrick, The Great Cholesterol Con (John Blake, 2007). 22.C. T. T. Collaborators, ‘Efficacy and Safety of Cholesterol-Lowering Treatment: Prospective Meta-Analysis of Data from 90,056 Participants by the Incidents of Fourteen Randomised Trials of Statins’, The Lancet, 2005, Vol. 366, pp. 1267–72. 23.‘Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults. Executive Summary of The Third Report of The National Cholesterol Education Programme’, JAMA, 2001, Vol. 285, pp. 2486–97. 24.D. Ricks and R. Raben, ‘Cholesterol Guidelines, Drugs Panelist Links Under Fire’, Newsday,15 July 2003. 25.J.

 

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Overdosed America: The Broken Promise of American Medicine by John Abramson

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germ theory of disease, Louis Pasteur, medical malpractice, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, p-value, placebo effect, profit maximization, profit motive, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, stem cell, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

Purcaro, “Randomized, Controlled Trial of Long-Term Moderate Exercise Training in Chronic Heart Failure: Effects on Functional Capacity, Quality of Life, and Clinical Outcome,” Circulation. 99:1173–1182, 1999. 100 not exactly the same as in the defibrillator study: The patients in the exercise study had more severe heart failure, were younger (55 versus 64 years old), and did not all have heart disease caused by inadequate blood supply through the coronary arteries (85 percent versus 100 percent). 101 smoking cessation after heart attack: Average reduction in the absolute risk of death among the 12 studies reviewed is 11.1 percent, and the relative risk reduction in smokers is 46 percent compared with those who continued to smoke. The patients in these studies all had heart attacks, but ejection fraction or the incidence of congestive heart failure is not reported, precluding direct comparison with the defibrillator study. K. Wilson, N. Gibson, A. Willan, and D. Cook, “Effect of Smoking Cessation on Mortality After Myocardial Infarction: Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies,” Archives of Internal Medicine 160:939–944, 2000. 101 the acid-blocking drug Prilosec: Organic molecules of identical chemical composition can occur in two forms that are mirror images of each other. Prilosec is a mix of both forms. Nexium is composed of only one form. 102 “head-to-head” studies between Prilosec and Nexium: J. E. Richter, P. J. Kahrilas, J. Johanson, et al., “Efficacy and Safety of Esomeprazole Compared to Omeprazole in GERD Patients with Erosive Esophagitis: A Randomized Controlled Trial,” American Journal of Gastroenterology 96:656–665, 2001. 102 Would 40 mg of Prilosec daily: See http://www.nexium-us.com/science/cva05c.asp.

VIII-3. 140 “aggressive LDL-lowering therapy: NCEP Full Report, p. II-32. 140 The table mentioned cites nine references: NCEP Full Report, p. II-5. 141 average age was 51: The Upjohn study was the only one that was difficult to find, having been completed in 1978, nine years before the first statin came on the market. S. B. Manuck, A. B. Mendelsohn, J. R. Kaplan, and S. H. Belle, “Cholesterol Reduction and Non-Illness Mortality: Meta-Analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials,” British Medical Journal 322:11–15, 2001. 141 “The relationship between serum cholesterol: NCEP Full Report, p. II-34. 141 total cholesterol is not significantly related to mortality: Framingham Heart Study reported in 1993. See Kronmal, Cain, Ye, and Omenn, op. cit. 141 not even an increase in the risk of heart attack: B. M. Psaty, C. D. Furberg, L. H. Kuller, et al., “Traditional Risk Factors and Subclinical Disease Measures as Predictors of First Myocardial Infarction in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study,” Archives of Internal Medicine 159:1339–1347, 1999. 142 remains high in the elderly: D.

., “Pravastatin in Elderly Individual at Risk of Vascular Disease (PROSPER): A Randomized Controlled Trial,” The Lancet 360:1623–1630, 2002. 145 “There is no evidence: NCEP Full Report p. I–44. 145 “Carcinogenicity of Lipid-Lowering Drugs”: Newman T. B., Hulley S. B., “Carcinogenicity of Lipid-Lowering Drugs,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 275:55-60, 1996. 146 could take many years: Bjerre L.M., LeLorier J., “Do Statins Cause Cancer? A Meta-Analysis of Large Randomized Clinical Trials,” American Journal of Medicine,: 110:716–723, 2001. 147 Dr. Scott Grundy: Quoted in Thomas M. Burton and Chris Adams, “New Government Cholesterol Standards Would Triple Number of Prescriptions,” Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2001. 147 Dr. Walter Willett: Naomi Aoki, “Drug Makers Influence Pondered Eye on U.S. Advice to Cut Cholesterol,” Boston Globe, May 31, 2001. 148 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter newsletter: Jami Rubin and Andrew Baum, “Our Survey of the Statin Market Projects Strong Growth,” Morgan Stanly Dean Witter U.S.

 

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I Think You'll Find It's a Bit More Complicated Than That by Ben Goldacre

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call centre, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, Desert Island Discs, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, Firefox, Flynn Effect, jimmy wales, John Snow's cholera map, Loebner Prize, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, Simon Singh, statistical model, stem cell, the scientific method, Turing test, WikiLeaks

This breaks down into such objectives as: improving the health of drug users, by providing clean drugs in measured doses under medical supervision; reducing drug-related crime by providing users with free legal opiates, thus reducing their need to steal to fund illicit heroin; improving the social situation of drug users (family relationships, finances, employment, housing and so on); persuading users to reduce their daily dose and ultimately take steps towards abstinence. This is in many ways an updated version of Rolleston’s rationale from 1926. However, the policy of prescribing methadone may be criticised from many different angles, and to the best of my knowledge these criticisms have never been comprehensively considered in one article. Certainly there is no convenient meta-analysis of methadone programmes. I shall consider each criticism in detail, and later compare the use of methadone to the maintenance prescription of heroin, which still continues on a small scale in the UK, and has recently been reassessed in Switzerland and Australia. Firstly, it is important to recognise that methadone is not a pleasant drug to take, causing nausea and vomiting, weight gain, profuse sweating, dysphoria and tooth decay.

It’s not a perfect study – I don’t like subgroup analyses for a start, and it only followed up participants for seven days – but it’s not alone. An earlier study from 2009 randomly assigned a hundred students either to a control group or to a couple of forms of imagery, picturing themselves choosing a healthy snack over an unhealthy one. The imagery group went on to have more healthy snacks. Meanwhile, a meta-analysis from 2006 collectively analyses the results of ninety-four studies and finds that ‘implementation intentions’ (‘If I am in situation X, I will do Y’) had a positive effect overall on goal achievement. So there’s probably something there, and this research tells us some interesting things about science. Firstly, I think this kind of research is useful. Rupert Sheldrake is the researcher who claims dogs can sense their owner is coming home before they arrive.

: http://www.badscience.net/2009/08/check-me-out-i-bought-some-posh-chocolate-im-political/ two review papers: http://www.food.gov.uk/news/newsarchive/2009/jul/organic in terms of composition: http://www.food.gov.uk/multimedia/pdfs/organicreviewappendices.pdf or health benefits: http://www.food.gov.uk/multimedia/pdfs/organicreviewreport.pdf blanket right of reply: http://news.google.co.uk/news?ned=uk&hl=en&ncl=d0-fIEkn R_72tGMiU0uORy7OgGBTM&cf=all Don’t talk about that: http://www.badscience.net/2007/04/this-ageing-breadhead-guy-is-totally-angry-with-me/ pharmaceutical companies before it: http://www.badscience.net/2008/04/cliff-richard-gloria-hunniford-carole-caplin-the-60bn-food-supplement-industry-and-the-quantum-xrroid-dude-refute-a-cochrane-meta-analysis/ example from its press release: http://www.soilassociation.org/News/NewsItem/tabid/91/smid/463/ArticleID/97/reftab/57/t/Soil-Association-response-to-the-Food-Standards-Agency-s-Organic-Review/Default.aspx www.qlif.org: http://www.qlif.org/ list of 120 papers: http://orgprints.org/view/projects/eu_qlif.html immune parameters in rat: http://orgprints.org/12653/ Salmonella Infection Level: http://orgprints.org/13728/ As Far as I Understand Thinktanks … As Far as I: http://www.badscience.net/2008/06/707/ Meaningful Debates Need Clear Information Meaningful Debates: http://www.badscience.net/2007/10/557/ in the Independent: http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article3084306.ece and the Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?

 

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The Vegetarian Myth: Food, Justice, and Sustainability by Lierre Keith

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British Empire, car-free, clean water, cognitive dissonance, correlation does not imply causation, Drosophila, dumpster diving, en.wikipedia.org, Gary Taubes, Haber-Bosch Process, McMansion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, peak oil, placebo effect, Rosa Parks, the built environment

Cornell University’s Program of Breast Cancer and Environmental Risk Factors warned women at risk for Nutritional Vegetarians 229 breast cancer to avoid eating soy. After endorsing soy in 1999, the nutrition committee of the American Heart Association did a turnaround in 2006, announcing that soy confers no benefit and that the organization “therefore does not recommend isoflavone supplements in food or pills.”267 And while it’s true that the FDA has endorsed soy as “heart healthy,” that endorsement was based on a meta-analysis of studies on soy and heart disease—a meta-analysis paid for by PTI (Protein Technologies International, which is partly owned by DuPont).268 One soy researcher admitted publicly in 2001 that: Clinical work is driven by the idea that the isoflavone levels of Asians were extremely high and that low incidences of hormonal disease was due to high circulating levels of these compounds. If we look at a new cohort study in Japan, we see an average intake of 6-8 g per day.

In dogs, cholesterol feeding had no effect at all unless the poor creatures had their thyroids removed or chemically suppressed.45 Writes Anthony Colpo, “High amounts of cholesterol appeared to be readily metabolized by carnivorous animals, whereas herbivorous animals may not be equipped to metabolize large amounts of dietary cholesterol or animal fat, both of which are absent from plant foods.”46 Not to put too fine a point on it, but duh? Remember that 80 percent of the cholesterol in your blood was made by your body. Only 20 percent was put there by your food choices. Your body knows where it wants that cholesterol level. It may have been misled—by insulin, for instance—but it will adjust its production based on what you ingest. If you eat more cholesterol, it will produce less. A meta-analysis of one hundred sixty seven—yes, that’s 167—cholesterol-feeding experiments found that raising dietary cholesterol had a negligible effect on blood cholesterol, and no link to CHD (coronary heart disease) risk.47 Before we go any further, do you even know what cholesterol is? This benign, maligned substance is needed by every cell in your body, and most of all by the ones that make you human.

 

pages: 320 words: 96,006

The End of Men: And the Rise of Women by Hanna Rosin

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affirmative action, call centre, cognitive dissonance, David Brooks, delayed gratification, edge city, facts on the ground, financial independence, hiring and firing, housing crisis, income inequality, informal economy, job satisfaction, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, New Urbanism, Northern Rock, postindustrial economy, purchasing power parity, Results Only Work Environment, Silicon Valley, Steven Pinker, union organizing, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce, young professional

McGregor et. al, “Terror Management and Aggression: Evidence that Mortality Salience Motivates Aggression against Worldview-Threatening Others,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 74, no. 3 (1998): 590–605. women “increasingly reported masculine-stereotyped personality traits”: Jean M. Twenge, “Changes in Masculine and Feminine Traits Over Time: A Meta-Analysis,” Sex Roles 36, no. 5/6 (1997): 305–325. In 2001, Twenge analyzed personality tests: Jean M. Twenge, “Changes in Women’s Assertiveness in Response to Status and Roles: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis, 1931–1993,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81, no. 1 (2001): 133–145. A 1999 analysis of 150 studies on risk-taking behaviors: James P. Byrnes, David C. Miller, and William D. Schafer, “Gender Differences in Risk Taking: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 125, no. 3 (1999): 367–383. To measure rates of competitiveness: Uri Gneezy, Kenneth L. Leonard, and John A. List, “Gender Differences in Competition: Evidence from a Matrilineal and a Patriarchal Society,” Econometrica 77, no. 5 (2009): 1637–1664.

 

pages: 342 words: 86,256

Walkable City: How Downtown Can Save America, One Step at a Time by Jeff Speck

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A Pattern Language, active transport: walking or cycling, car-free, carbon footprint, congestion charging, David Brooks, edge city, Edward Glaeser, Enrique Peñalosa, food miles, Frank Gehry, Guggenheim Bilbao, if you build it, they will come, intermodal, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, peak oil, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Florida, skinny streets, smart cities, Stewart Brand, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, transit-oriented development, Upton Sinclair, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight, young professional, Zipcar

We talked about this phenomenon at length in Suburban Nation in 2000, and the seminal text, The Elephant in the Bedroom: Automobile Dependence and Denial, was published by Hart and Spivak in 1993. For this reason, I will not take the time here to address its causes, which are multifold and fascinating. Since these books were published, however, there have been additional reports, all essentially confirming what we knew then. In 2004, a meta-analysis of dozens of previous studies found that “on average, a 10 percent increase in lane miles induces an immediate 4 percent increase in vehicle miles traveled, which climbs to 10 percent—the entire new capacity—in a few years.”14 The most comprehensive effort remains the one completed in 1998 by the Surface Transportation Policy Project, which looked at fully seventy different metropolitan areas over fifteen years.

“The Return of the Two-Way Street.” governing.org, December 2009. El Nasser, Haya. “In Many Neighborhoods, Kids Are Only a Memory.” USA Today, June 3, 2011. Erlanger, Steven, and Maïa de la Baume. “French Ideal of Bicycle-Sharing Meets Reality.” The New York Times, October 30, 2009. Eversley, Melanie. “Many Cities Changing One-Way Streets Back.” USA Today, December 20, 2006. Ewing, Reid, and Robert Cervero. “Travel and the Built Environment: A Meta-Analysis.” Journal of the American Planning Association 76, no. 3 (2010): 11. Ewing, Reid, and Eric Dumbaugh. “The Built Environment and Traffic Safety: A Review of Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Planning Literature 23, no. 4 (2009): 347–67. Fallows, James. “Fifty-Nine and a Half Minutes of Brilliance, Thirty Seconds of Hauteur.” theatlantic.com, July 3, 2009. Farmer, Molly. “South Jordan Mom Cited for Neglect for Allowing Child to Walk to School.”

They found that “those living in more walkable neighborhoods trusted their neighbors more; participated in community projects, clubs and volunteering more; and described television as their major form of entertainment less than survey participants living in less walkable neighborhoods” (Rogers et al., “Examining Walkability,” 201–203). ●The Blue Zones, 220. It’s worth noting that Lesson Four is “buy a case of high-quality red wine,” which certainly adds to the book’s appeal (240). ■The Blue Zones, 223. According to The New York Times, “a recent meta-analysis of studies about exercise and mortality showed that, in general, a sedentary person’s risk of dying prematurely from any cause plummeted by nearly 20 percent if he or she began brisk walking (or the equivalent) for 30 minutes five times a week” (Gretchen Reynolds, “What’s the Single Best Exercise?”). ●In Carjacked, Catherine Lutz and Anne Lutz Fernandez suggest that “10 to 25 percent of the annual military budget should be allocated to the line item of oil resource control” (96).

 

Are We Getting Smarter?: Rising IQ in the Twenty-First Century by James R. Flynn

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Flynn Effect, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, popular electronics

State, 151 S.W.3d 450, 458 (Tenn.) November 16, 2004. INDEC (Instituto Nacional de Estaditica y Censos) (2002). School attendance from the Argentine census. Unpublished. In re Mathis, 483 F.3d 395 (5th Cir.) April 2, 2007. In re Salazar, 443 F.3d 430, 433 (5th Cir.) March 17, 2006. Irwing, P., & Lynn, R. (2005). Sex differences in means and variability on the Progressive Matrices in university students: A meta-analysis. British Journal of Psychology, 96: 505–524. Japan Reference (2011). The origins of the Japanese people. Accessed August 26, 2011. Jensen, A. R. (1973). Educability and Group Differences. London: Methuen. (1980). Bias in Mental Testing. London: Methuen. (1998). The g Factor: The Science of Mental Ability. Westport, CT: Praeger. (2011). The theory of intelligence and its measurement. Intelligence, 39: 171–177. 294 References Johnson, S. (2005).

Intelligence, 37: 249–255. Lynn, R., Allik, J., Pullman, H., & Laidra (2002a). A study of intelligence in Estonia. Psychological Reports, 91: 1022–1026. 296 References (2002b). Sex differences on the Progressive Matrices among adolescents: Some data for Estonia. Personality and Individual Differences, 34: 669–679. Lynn, R., & Irwing, P. (2004). Sex differences on the Progressive Matrices: A meta-analysis. Intelligence, 32: 481–498. Lynn, R., & Kazlauskaite, V. (2002). A study of IQ in Lithuania. Psychological Reports, 95: 611–612. Lynn, R., & Vanhanen, T. (2002). IQ and the Wealth of Nations. Westport, CT: Praeger. (2006). IQ and Global Inequality. Augusta, GA: Washington Summit. Mackintosh, N. J. (1998). Reply to Lynn. Journal of Biosocial Science, 30: 533–539. Maguire, E. A., Gadian, D. G., Johnsrude, I.

The suitability of Raven’s Standard Progressive Matrices for various groups in South Africa. Personality and Individual Differences, 13: 149–160. People v. Superior Court of Tulare County, 21 Cal.Rptr.3d 542 (Cal. Ct.App.) December 6, 2004. People v. Superior Court of Tulare County, 155 P.3d 259 (Cal.) April 12, 2007. Pietschnig, J., Voracek, M., & Formann, A. K. (2010). Pervasiveness of the IQ rise: A cross-temporal meta-analysis. PLoS ONE, 5: e14406. PISA (2006). Science Competencies for the Modern World. Paris: OECD – Programme for International Science Assessment. Raven, J. (1986). Manual for Raven’s Progressive Matrices and Vocabulary Scales (research supplement No. 3). London: H. K. Lewis. Raven, J., & Court, J. H. (1989). Manual for Raven’s Progressive Matrices and Vocabulary Scales (research supplement No. 4).

 

pages: 346 words: 92,984

The Lucky Years: How to Thrive in the Brave New World of Health by David B. Agus

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3D printing, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, butterfly effect, clean water, cognitive dissonance, crowdsourcing, Danny Hillis, Drosophila, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, Kickstarter, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, microcredit, mouse model, Murray Gell-Mann, New Journalism, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, placebo effect, publish or perish, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, statistical model, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Thomas Malthus, wikimedia commons

Berenson, “Self-Perception of Weight and Its Association with Weight-Related Behaviors in Young, Reproductive-Aged Women,” Obstetrics & Gynecology 116, no. 6 (December 2010): 1274–80, doi:10.1097/AOG.0b013e3181fdfc47. 4. Benjamin Radford, “Forty Percent of Overweight Women Don’t Know It,” Discovery News, December 10, 2010, http://news.discovery.com/human/psychology/40-of-overweight-women-dont-know-it-101210.htm, accessed August 7, 2015. 5. A. Lundahl, K. M. Kidwell, and T. D. Nelson, “Parental Underestimates of Child Weight: A Meta-analysis,” Pediatrics 133, no. 3 (March 2014): E689–703, doi:10.1542/peds.2013-2690, Epub February 2, 2014. See also H. Y. Chen et al., “Personal and Parental Weight Misperception and Self-Reported Attempted Weight Loss in US Children and Adolescents, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007–2008 and 2009–2010,” Preventing Chronic Disease 11 (July 31, 2014): E132, doi:10.5888/pcd11.140123.

., “Meat Consumption in Relation to Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease Among Japanese Men and Women,” European Journal of Clinical Nutrition 66, no. 6 (June 2012): 687–93. doi:10.1038/ejcn.2012.6, Epub February 15, 2012. 12. R. Micha, S. K. Wallace, and D. Mozaffarian, “Red and Processed Meat Consumption and Risk of Incident Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke, and Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis,” Circulation 121, no. 21 (June 1, 2010): 2271–83, doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.109.924977, Epub May 17, 2010. 13. The debate about the risk factors related to the consumption of red meat was well explained by Patrick J. Skerrett, “Study Urges Moderation in Red Meat Intake,” Harvard Health (blog), March 13, 2012, www.health.harvard.edu/blog/study-urges-moderation-in-red-meat-intake-201203134490. 14.

Jeffrey Beall, “List of Predatory Publishers,” Scholarly Open Access blog, last modified January 2, 2014, http://scholarlyoa.com/2014/01/02/list-of-predatory-publishers-2014/. 23. P. Autier, “Vitamin D Status and Ill Health: A Systematic Review,” Lancet Diabetes Endocrinology 2, no. 1 (January 2014): 76–89, doi:10.1016/S2213-8587(13)70165-7, Epub December 6, 2013. 24. I. R. Reid, “Effects of Vitamin D Supplements on Bone Mineral Density: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis,” Lancet 383, no. 9912 (January 11, 2014): 146–55, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61647-5, Epub October 11, 2013. 25. E. S. LeBlanc et al., “Screening for Vitamin D Deficiency: Systematic Review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force,” Annals of Internal Medicine 162, no. 2 (January 20, 2015): 109–22, doi:10.7326/M14-1659. 26. Anahad O’Conner, “Fish Oil Claims Not Well Supported,” New York Times, March 30, 2015, http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/30/fish-oil-claims-not-supported-by-research. 27.

 

pages: 158 words: 46,760

Overcoming Adrenal Fatigue: How to Restore Hormonal Balance and Feel Renewed, Energized, and Stress Free by Kathryn Simpson

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impulse control, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, randomized controlled trial

Association of depression with medical illness: Does cortisol play a role? Biological Psychiatry (55)1:1-9. Bunevicius, R., G. Kazanavicius, R. Zalinkevicius, and A. J. Prange. 1999. Effects of thyroxine as compared with thyroxine plus triiodothyronine in patients with hypothyroidism. New England Journal of Medicine 340(6):424-429. Burke, H. M., M. C. Davis, C. Otte, and D. C. Mohr. 2005. Depression and cortisol responses to psychological stress: A meta-analysis. Psychoneuroendocrinology 30(9):846-856. Burton, J. M., S. Kimball, R. Vieth, et al. 2010. A phase I/II dose-escalation trial of vitamin D3 and calcium in multiple sclerosis. Neurology 74(23):1852-1859. Catena, C., G. Colussi, E. Nadalini, et al. 2008. Cardiovascular outcomes in patients with primary aldosteronism after treatment. Archives of Internal Medicine 168(1):80-85. Chae, C. U., R.

Plasma aldosterone, cortisol, and electrolyte concentrations in physical exercise after magnesium supplementation. Journal of Clinical Chemistry and Clinical Biochemistry 22(11):717-721. Gordon, G. G., and A. L. Southren. 1977. Thyroid hormone effects on steroid hormone metabolism. Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine 53(3):241-259. Gorham, E. D., C. F. Garland, F. C. Garland, et al. 2007. Optimal vitamin D status for colorectal cancer prevention: A quantitative meta analysis. American Journal of Preventative Medicine 32(3):210-216. Gotoh, S., N. Nishimura, O. Takahashi, et al. 2008. Adrenal function in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. European Respiratory Journal 31(6):1268-1273. Grootveld, M., C. Silwood, P. Claxson, B. Serra, and M. Viana. 2001. Health effects of oxidized heated oils. Foodservice Research International 13(1):41-55. Guth, L., Z. Zhang, and E.

 

pages: 76 words: 20,238

The Great Stagnation by Tyler Cowen

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Asian financial crisis, Bernie Madoff, en.wikipedia.org, financial innovation, Flynn Effect, income inequality, indoor plumbing, life extension, liquidity trap, Long Term Capital Management, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Peter Thiel, RAND corporation, school choice, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, urban renewal

: The Effect of School Resources on Student Achievement and Adult Success, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1996, although many of the papers in that volume still are skeptical about the money-results connection. For one defense of educational spending and its connection to outcomes, see Larry V. Hedges, Richard D. Laine, and Rob Greenwald, “An Exchange: Part I: Does Money Matter? A Meta-Analysis of Studies of the Effects of Differential School Inputs on Student Outcomes,” Educational Researcher, April 1994, 23, 3, pp. 5-14. A response to this perspective can be found in the recent Eric A. Hanushek and Alfred A. Lindseth, Schoolhouses, Courthouses, and Statehouses: Solving the Funding-Achievement Puzzle in America’s Public Schools, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009. That same book, on p.298, offers the statistic on U.S. educational spending as a percentage of GDP and the comparison with Iceland.

 

The Psychopath Inside: A Neuroscientist's Personal Journey Into the Dark Side of the Brain by James Fallon

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Bernie Madoff, epigenetics, meta analysis, meta-analysis, personalized medicine, phenotype, stem cell, theory of mind

But the increase was much greater in males with the warrior gene. Twelve percent of the guys had this combination of abuse and the warrior gene, but they were responsible for 44 percent of the men’s violent convictions, doing four times their share of the damage. Overall, 85 percent of the males with the warrior gene who were severely maltreated became antisocial. A similar pattern was seen in females, though they were less violent. A later meta-analysis Caspi and his colleagues conducted of similar studies showed that even without abuse, the warrior gene does increase aggression, but its effect on its own is much smaller. Those several months following birth are sometimes called the “fourth trimester,” and this extended period of what should have been prenatal development means that early environment for a human infant is particularly important.

Insel, Thomas R. “The challenge of translation in social neuroscience: a review of oxytocin, vasopressin, and affiliative behavior.” Neuron 65, no. 6 (2010): 768. Kim-Cohen, Julia, Avshalom Caspi, Alan Taylor, Benjamin Williams, Rhiannon Newcombe, Ian W. Craig, and Terrie E. Moffitt. “MAOA, maltreatment, and gene-environment interaction predicting children’s mental health: New evidence and a meta-analysis.” Molecular Psychiatry 11, no. 10 (2006): 903–913. Kirsch, Peter, Christine Esslinger, Qiang Chen, Daniela Mier, Stefanie Lis, Sarina Siddhanti, Harald Gruppe, Venkata S. Mattay, Bernd Gallhofer, and Andreas Meyer-Lindenberg. “Oxytocin modulates neural circuitry for social cognition and fear in humans.” The Journal of Neuroscience 25, no. 49 (2005): 11489–11493. Koenigs, Michael, Liane Young, Ralph Adolphs, Daniel Tranel, Fiery Cushman, Marc Hauser, and Antonio Damasio.

 

pages: 255 words: 78,207

Web Scraping With Python: Collecting Data From the Modern Web by Ryan Mitchell

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AltaVista, Amazon Web Services, cloud computing, en.wikipedia.org, Firefox, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, optical character recognition, random walk, self-driving car, Turing test, web application

If you are storing copyrighted material that you have free access to in your own nonpublic database for the purposes of anal‐ ysis, that is fine. If you are publishing that database to your website for viewing or download, that is not fine. If you are analyzing that database and publishing statistics about word counts, a list of authors by prolificacy, or some other meta-analysis of the data, that is fine. If you are accompanying that meta-analysis with a few select quotes, or brief samples of data to make your point, that is likely also fine, but you might want to examine the “fair use” clause of the DMCA to make sure. Trespass to Chattels Trespass to chattels is fundamentally different from what we think of as “trespassing laws” in that it applies not to real estate or land but to moveable property (such as a server).

 

pages: 262 words: 80,257

The Eureka Factor by John Kounios

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Albert Einstein, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, deliberate practice, en.wikipedia.org, Flynn Effect, Google Hangouts, impulse control, invention of the telephone, invention of the telescope, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Necker cube, pattern recognition, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Jobs, theory of mind, Wall-E, William of Occam

But just because it’s possible to design an experiment that shows no incubation doesn’t mean that incubation, waking or otherwise, is a myth. It just means that incubation isn’t equally effective in all kinds of situations. More precision was needed, and two psychological scientists, Ut Na Sio and Thomas Ormerod, recently put the question to rest. They took the findings of all available prior studies of incubation and performed a statistical “meta-analysis” that essentially combined them all into one giant high-resolution study. Their central conclusion was that incubation is real—if a person takes a break from a problem and returns to it later, then the break can increase the likelihood that she will solve the problem (relative to uninterrupted work). FATIGUED BRAINS, AUTOMATIC THINKING, AND THE REAL UNCONSCIOUS MIND * * * Mental work can be draining.

The failure to solve it can sensitize you to hints around you that could trigger a solution by insight. Recent research suggests that sleep can heighten opportunistic assimilation of clues. The effects of sleep on prospective memory are described in M. K. Scullin and M. A. McDaniel, “Remembering to Execute a Goal: Sleep on It!,” Psychological Science 21 (2010): 1028–35. Waking Incubation 1 Sio and Ormerod’s meta-analysis of past incubation research is described in U. N. Sio and T. C. Ormerod, “Does Incubation Enhance Problem Solving?: A Meta-Analytic Review,” Psychological Bulletin 135 (2009): 94–120. Fatigued Brains, Automatic Thinking, and the Real Unconscious Mind 1 Research on “attention restoration theory” backs up the idea that the brain’s executive functions can be rejuvenated by even relatively short periods of rest.

 

pages: 262 words: 66,800

Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future by Johan Norberg

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agricultural Revolution, anti-communist, availability heuristic, Bartolomé de las Casas, Berlin Wall, British Empire, business climate, clean water, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, demographic transition, desegregation, Donald Trump, Flynn Effect, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, Haber-Bosch Process, Hans Island, Hans Rosling, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, income inequality, income per capita, indoor plumbing, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, John Snow's cholera map, Kibera, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, more computing power than Apollo, moveable type in China, Naomi Klein, open economy, place-making, Rosa Parks, special economic zone, Steven Pinker, telerobotics, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transatlantic slave trade, very high income, working poor, Xiaogang Anhui farmers

Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015, p. 17f. 23 Environmental Performance Index 2006. 24 Indur M. Goklany, The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet. Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2007, p. 149f. 25 Bishwa S. Koirala, Hui Li and Robert P. Berrens, ‘Further investigation of environmental Kuznets curve studies using meta-analysis’, International Journal of Ecological Economics and Statistics, 22, S11 (2011). 26 Indur Goklany, ‘Deaths and death rates from extreme weather events: 1900–2008’. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons, 14, 4 (2009), 102–9. 27 Todd Moss and Benjamin Leo, ‘Maximizing access to energy: estimates of access and generation for the overseas private investment corporation’s portfolio’, Center for Global Development, January 2014, www.cgdev.org/publication/maximizing-access-energy-estimates-access-and-generation-overseas-private-investment (accessed on 22 March 2016). 28 Bailey 2015, p. 200. 29 Lindstrand et al. 2006, p. 70.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003, p. 488. 19 World Economic Forum, ‘Global gender gap report 2015’, http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-gender-gap-report-2015 (accessed on 22 March 2016). 20 UNDP, Human Development Report 2014. New York: UNDP, 2014. 21 Pinker 2011, p. 413. 22 United Nations Children’s Fund, Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting: What Might the Future Hold? New York: UNICEF, 2014. 23 Pew Research Center 2013. 24 Jean M. Twenge, ‘Attitudes toward women, 1970–1995: a meta-analysis’, Psychology of Women Quarterly, 21, 1 (1997), 35–51. 25 Pinker 2011, p. 408f. 26 Lillian Faderman, The Gay Revolution: The Story of the Struggle. New York: Simon and Schuster, 2015, p. 137. 27 Aaron Day: ‘The PinkNews guide to the history of England and Wales equal marriage’, PinkNews, 15 July 2013. 28 John D’Emilio, Sexual Politics, Sexual Communities, 2nd edn. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2012, p. 156. 29 Faderman 2015. 30 ‘The gay divide’, The Economist, 11 October 2014. 10 The next generation 1 Julian L.

 

pages: 288 words: 73,297

The Biology of Desire: Why Addiction Is Not a Disease by Marc Lewis Phd

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delayed gratification, helicopter parent, impulse control, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Ronald Reagan, Skype, Walter Mischel

., The Self-Organizing Brain: From Growth Cones to Functional Networks, Progress in Brain Research vol. 102 (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1994), 227–243. Chapter 2: A Brain Designed for Addiction 1. From William James’s Habit (1887), quoted by Maria Popova at www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2012/09/25/william-james-on-habit. Chapter 3: When Craving Comes to Power (There are no notes for this chapter.) Chapter 4: The Tunnel of Attention 1. For a meta-analysis, see J. MacKillop, M. T. Amlung, L. R. Few, L. A. Ray, L. H. Sweet, and M. R. Munafo, “Delayed Reward Discounting and Addictive Behavior: A Meta-analysis,” Psychopharmacology 216 (2011): 305–321. Chapter 5: Donna’s Secret Identity (There are no notes for this chapter.) Chapter 6: Johnny Needs a Drink 1. Barry J. Everitt and Trevor W. Robbins, “From the Ventral to the Dorsal Striatum: Devolving Views of Their Role in Drug Addiction,” Neuroscience and Biobehavioral Reviews 37, no. 9, part A (2013): 1946–1954. 2.

 

pages: 86 words: 27,453

Why We Work by Barry Schwartz

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Atul Gawande, call centre, deskilling, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, if you build it, they will come, invisible hand, job satisfaction, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Silicon Valley, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Toyota Production System

Psychological Science, 15 (2004): 787–93. Hilfiker, D. “A Doctor’s View of Modern Medicine.” New York Times Magazine, February 23, 1986: 44–47, 58. Hirsch, F. Social Limits to Growth. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Press, 1976.* Hodson, R. Dignity at Work. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001.* Judge, T. A., R. F. Piccolo, N. P. Podsakoff, J. C. Shaw, and B. L. Rich. “The Relationship Between Pay and Job Satisfaction: A Meta-Analysis of the Literature.” Journal of Vocational Behavior, 77 (2010): 157–67. Jussim, L. “Self-fulfilling Prophecies: A Theoretical and Integrative Review.” Psychological Review, 93 (1986): 429–45. ——. “Teacher Expectations: Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Perceptual Biases, and Accuracy.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57 (1989): 469–80. Jussim, L., J. Eccles, and S. Madon. “Social Perception, Social Stereotypes, and Teacher Expectations: Accuracy and the Quest for the Powerful Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.”

 

pages: 468 words: 150,206

Food Revolution, The: How Your Diet Can Help Save Your Life and Our World by John Robbins, Dean Ornish M. D.

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Albert Einstein, carbon footprint, clean water, complexity theory, double helix, Exxon Valdez, food miles, laissez-faire capitalism, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, profit motive, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Rosa Parks, telemarketer

Poster presented at: American Public Health Association's 137th Annual Meeting and Exposition; November 9, 2009: Philadelphia, PA. xvi. Brekke HK, Ludvigsson J. Daily vegetable intake during pregnancy negatively associated to islet autoimmunity in the offspring-The ABIS study. Pediatr Diabetes. Advanced access published September 16, 2009. DOI: 10.1111 /j.1399-5448.2009.00563.x. xvii. Aune D, Ursin G, Veierod MB. Meat consumption and the risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies. Diabetologia. 2009;52:2277-2287. xviii. Koh WP, Wu AH, Wang R, et al. Gender-specific associations between soy and risk of hip fracture in the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Ain J Epi- deiniol. 2009;170:901-909. xix. Kathy Freston, "Vegetarian is the new Prins," Huffington Post, Jan 18, 2007. xx. Livestock's Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Option, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Rome, 2006.

., "Mortality Pattern and Life Expectancy of Seventh-Day Adventists in the Netherlands," International Journal of Epidemiology 12 (1983):455-9; Chang-Claude, J., et al., "Mortality Pattern of German Vegetarians after 11 Years of Followup," Epidemiology 3 (1992):395-401. 13. Resnicow, et al., "Diet and Serum Lipids in Vegan Vegetarians." See also Messina and Messina, The Dietitian's Guide to Vegetarian Diets. 14. Anderson, J. W., et al., "Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Soy Protein Intake on Serum Lipids," New England Journal of Medicine 333 (1995):276-82. See also Carroll, K. K., "Dietary Protein in Relation to Plasma Cholesterol Levels and Atherosclerosis," Nutrition Review 36 (1978):1-5. 15. Ibid. 16. "Myths and Facts about Beef Production." 17. Barnard, Neal, The Power of Your Plate (Summertown, TN: Book Publishing Company, 1990), pp. 25-6. 18.

.," British Journal of Nutrition 69 (1993):3-19; Carlson, et al., "Vegan, Vegetarian and Omnivore Diets"; Hughes, et al., "Riboflavin Levels in the Diet and Breast Milk of Vegans and Omnivores," Proceedings of Nutritional Science 38 (1979):95A; Janelle, et al., "Nutrient Intakes and Eating Behavior Scores," 180-6. 36. Davis, et al., "Rebuttal." 37. Ibid. 38. Ibid. 39. Anderson J. W., et al., "Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Soy Protein Intake on Serum Lipids," New England Journal of Medicine 333 (1995):276-82; Sirtori, C. R., et al., "Double-Blind Study of the Addition of High-Protein Soya Milk vs. Cow's Milk to the Diet of Patients ... ," British Journal of Nutrition 82 (1999):91-6. 40. Jacobsen, B. K., et al., "Does High Soy Milk Intake Reduce Prostate Cancer Incidence?" Cancer Causes, Control 9 (1998):553-7. 41.

 

pages: 503 words: 131,064

Liars and Outliers: How Security Holds Society Together by Bruce Schneier

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airport security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Bernie Sanders, Brian Krebs, Broken windows theory, carried interest, Cass Sunstein, Chelsea Manning, corporate governance, crack epidemic, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Graeber, desegregation, don't be evil, Double Irish / Dutch Sandwich, Douglas Hofstadter, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, George Akerlof, hydraulic fracturing, impulse control, income inequality, invention of agriculture, invention of gunpowder, iterative process, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock company, Julian Assange, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Nate Silver, Network effects, Nick Leeson, offshore financial centre, patent troll, phenotype, pre–internet, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, profit motive, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Coase, security theater, shareholder value, slashdot, statistical model, Steven Pinker, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Market for Lemons, The Nature of the Firm, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, too big to fail, traffic fines, transaction costs, ultimatum game, UNCLOS, union organizing, Vernor Vinge, WikiLeaks, World Values Survey, Y2K

Holt (2000), “Y2K Bibliography of Experimental Economics and Social Science: Ultimatum Game Experiments,” University of Virginia. Hessel Oosterbeek, Randolph Sloof, and Gijs van de Kuilen (2004), “Cultural Differences in Ultimatum Game Experiments: Evidence From a Meta-Analysis,” Experimental Economics, 7:171–88. how the game works Werner Güth, Rolf Schmittberger, and Bernd Schwarze (1982), “An Experimental Analysis of Ultimatum Bargaining,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 3:267–88. turn down offers Hessel Oosterbeek, Randolph Sloof, and Gijs van de Kuilen (2004), “Differences in Ultimatum Game Experiments: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis,” Experimental Economics, 7:171–88. cultural backgrounds Donna L. Bahry (2004), “Trust in Transitional Societies: Experimental Results from Russia,” Paper presented at the American Political Science Association Meeting, Chicago.

cultivate their brand Smooch Reynolds (Dec 2002), “Career Branding: Is There Really Such a Concept?” Public Relations Tactics, 9:7,22. A small complaint Daniel J. Solove (2007), The Future of Reputation: Gossip, Rumor, and Privacy on the Internet, Yale University Press. isn't an effective Daniel Balliet, Laetitia B. Mulder, and Paul A.M. Van Lange (2011), “Reward, Punishment, and Cooperation: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin, 137:594–615. Maine lobstermen James M. Acheson (Apr 1972), “Territories of the Lobstermen,” Natural History Magazine, 81 (4): 60–9. Shame is a common Thomas J. Scheff (2000), “Shame and the Social Bond: A Sociological Theory,” Sociological Theory, 18:84–99. excessive CEO pay Sandeep Gopalan (2007), “Shame Sanctions and Excessive CEO Pay,” Delaware Journal of Corporate Law, 32:757–97.

 

pages: 414 words: 119,116

The Health Gap: The Challenge of an Unequal World by Michael Marmot

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active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Atul Gawande, Bonfire of the Vanities, Broken windows theory, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Celtic Tiger, centre right, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, Doha Development Round, epigenetics, financial independence, future of work, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, illegal immigration, income inequality, Indoor air pollution, Kenneth Rogoff, Kibera, labour market flexibility, lump of labour, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, New Urbanism, obamacare, paradox of thrift, race to the bottom, Rana Plaza, RAND corporation, road to serfdom, Simon Kuznets, Socratic dialogue, structural adjustment programs, the built environment, The Spirit Level, trickle-down economics, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Winter of Discontent, working poor

Two months later, the Principal asked for sixty volunteers – an addition of 45 over what she had. Linda Fried, geriatrician, gerontologist, epidemiologist Lack of social integration can be fatal. If Mr O. had the choice of giving up smoking or being more enmeshed socially, it is a close thing: both are potentially life-saving, but social integration is marginally better for his health. A ‘meta-analysis’ combined results from 148 studies of men and women with an average age of sixty-four at the start of the study. It found that over an average 7.5 years of follow-up, people who were socially engaged had a 50 per cent lower chance of dying. Being socially integrated in a variety of ways was more protective than simply being married or not living alone.24 The protective effect was similar in men and women.

British Medical Bulletin. 1997; 53(1): 96–108. 8Felitti VJ, Anda RF, Nordenberg D, Williamson DF, Spitz AM, Edwards V, et al. Relationship of childhood abuse and household dysfunction to many of the leading causes of death in adults. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Study. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 1998; 14(4): 245–58. 9Norman RE, Byambaa M, De R, Butchart A, Scott J, Vos T. The long-term health consequences of child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS Med. 2012;9(11):e1001349. 10Smith Z. NW. London: Hamish Hamilton, 2012, pp. 270–1. 11Plomin R. Genetics and children’s experiences in the family. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. 1995; 36: 33–67; Plomin R. Nature and Nurture: An Introduction to Human Behavioral Genetics. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks-Cole, 1990. 12UCL Institute of Health Equity. Marmot Indicators 2014 [10/11/2014].

Available from: https://www.instituteofhealthequity.org/members/workplans-and-draft-reports. 16Head et al. The Potential Impact; Bambra CL, Whitehead MM, Sowden AJ, Akers J, Petticrew MP. Shifting schedules: the health effects of reorganizing shift work. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2008; 34(5): 427–34; Vyas MV, Garg AX, Iansavichus AV, Costella J, Donner A, Laugsand LE, et al. Shift work and vascular events: systematic review and meta-analysis. British Medical Journal. 2012; 345: e4800. 17Steptoe and Kivimaki. Stress and cardiovascular disease. 18Beveridge W. Social Insurance and Allied Services. London: HMSO, 1942. 19New Policy Institute, MacInnes T, Aldridge H, Bushe S, Kenway P, Tinson A. Monitoring Poverty and Social Exclusion 2013. Joseph Rowntree Foundation; 2013. 20OECD. Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries.

 

pages: 372 words: 111,573

10% Human: How Your Body's Microbes Hold the Key to Health and Happiness by Alanna Collen

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Asperger Syndrome, Barry Marshall: ulcers, Berlin Wall, biofilm, clean water, correlation does not imply causation, discovery of penicillin, Drosophila, Fall of the Berlin Wall, friendly fire, germ theory of disease, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, illegal immigration, John Snow's cholera map, Louis Pasteur, Maui Hawaii, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, placebo effect, the scientific method

Hempel, A. et al. (2012). Probiotics for the prevention and treatment of antibiotic-associated diarrhea: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of the American Medical Association 307: 1959–1969. 4. AlFaleh, K. et al. (2011). Probiotics for prevention of necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm infants. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Issue 3. 5. Ringel, Y. and Ringel-Kulka, T. (2011). The rationale and clinical effectiveness of probiotics in irritable bowel syndrome. Journal of Clinical Gastroenterology 45(S3): S145–S148. 6. Pelucchi, C. et al. (2012). Probiotics supplementation during pregnancy or infancy for the prevention of atopic dermatitis: A meta-analysis. Epidemiology 23: 402–414. 7. Calcinaro, F. (2005). Oral probiotic administration induces interleukin-10 production and prevents spontaneous autoimmune diabetes in the non-obese diabetic mouse.

Association or lack of association between tetracycline class antibiotics used for acne vulgaris and lupus erythematosus. British Journal of Dermatology 157: 540–546. 13. Tan, L. et al. (2002). Use of antimicrobial agents in consumer products. Archives of Dermatology 138: 1082–1086. 14. Aiello, A.E. et al. (2008). Effect of hand hygiene on infectious disease risk in the community setting: A meta-analysis. American Journal of Public Health 98: 1372–1381. 15. Bertelsen, R.J. et al. (2013). Triclosan exposure and allergic sensitization in Norwegian children. Allergy 68: 84–91. 16. Syed, A.K. et al. (2014). Triclosan promotes Staphylococcus aureus nasal colonization. mBio 5: e01015–13. 17. Dale, R.C. et al. (2004). Encephalitis lethargica syndrome; 20 new cases and evidence of basal ganglia autoimmunity.

 

pages: 478 words: 142,608

The God Delusion by Richard Dawkins

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Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Ayatollah Khomeini, Brownian motion, cosmological principle, David Attenborough, Desert Island Discs, double helix, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, Fellow of the Royal Society, gravity well, invisible hand, John von Neumann, luminiferous ether, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Murray Gell-Mann, Necker cube, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, placebo effect, planetary scale, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Schrödinger's Cat, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, Thorstein Veblen, trickle-down economics, unbiased observer

Sociologists studying British children have found that only about one in twelve break away from their parents’ religious beliefs. As you might expect, different researchers measure things in different ways, so it is hard to compare different studies. Meta-analysis is the technique whereby an investigator looks at all the research papers that have been published on a topic, and counts up the number of papers that have concluded one thing, versus the number that have concluded something else. On the subject of religion and IQ, the only meta-analysis known to me was published by Paul Bell in Mensa Magazine in 2002 (Mensa is the society of individuals with a high IQ, and their journal not surprisingly includes articles on the one thing that draws them together).57 Bell concluded: ‘Of 43 studies carried out since 1927 on the relationship between religious belief and one’s intelligence and/or educational level, all but four found an inverse connection.

On the subject of religion and IQ, the only meta-analysis known to me was published by Paul Bell in Mensa Magazine in 2002 (Mensa is the society of individuals with a high IQ, and their journal not surprisingly includes articles on the one thing that draws them together).57 Bell concluded: ‘Of 43 studies carried out since 1927 on the relationship between religious belief and one’s intelligence and/or educational level, all but four found an inverse connection. That is, the higher one’s intelligence or education level, the less one is likely to be religious or hold “beliefs” of any kind.’ A meta-analysis is almost bound to be less specific than any one of the studies that contributed to it. It would be nice to have more studies along these lines, as well as more studies of the members of elite bodies such as other national academies, and winners of major prizes and medals such as the Nobel, the Crafoord, the Fields, the Kyoto, the Cosmos and others. I hope that future editions of this book will include such data. A reasonable conclusion from existing studies is that religious apologists might be wise to keep quieter than they habitually do on the subject of admired role models, at least where scientists are concerned.

 

pages: 406 words: 115,719

The Case Against Sugar by Gary Taubes

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Albert Einstein, British Empire, cuban missile crisis, epigenetics, Gary Taubes, Isaac Newton, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, phenotype, pre–internet, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, the scientific method, Works Progress Administration

“Dietary Surveys from the Tokelau Island Migrant Study.” Ecology of Food and Nutrition 19, no. 2: 83–97. Hass, H. B. 1960. Letter to Roger Adams, April 29. Sugar Research Foundation, Inc. Papers of Roger Adams, University of Illinois Archives, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He, F. J., J. Li, and G. A. MacGregor. 2013. “Effect of Longer Term Modest Salt Reduction on Blood Pressure: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomised Trials.” Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews no. 4 (April 30): CD004937. Heinbecker, P. 1928. “Studies on the Metabolism of Eskimos.” Journal of Biological Chemistry 80, no. 2 (Dec. 1): 461–75. Helmchen, L. A., and R. M. Henderson. 2004. “Changes in the Distribution of Body Mass Index of White US Men, 1890–2000.” Annals of Human Biology 31, no. 2 (March–April): 174–81. Hess, J.

“Influence of Dietary Fructose and Sucrose on Serum Triglycerides in Hyper­trigl­yceri­demia and Diabetes.” In Sipple and McNutt, eds., 1974, 441–50. Noorden, C. von. 1907. “Obesity.” Trans. D. Spence. In Metabolism and Practical Medicine, Vol. 3: The Pathology of Metabolism, ed. C. von Noorden and I. W. Hall (Chicago: W. Keener, 1907), 693–715. Noto, H., A. Goto, T. Tsujimoto, and M. Noda. 2012. “Cancer Risk in Diabetic Patients Treated with Metformin: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.” PLOS One 7, no. 3 (March): e33411. Nuccio, S. 1964. “Advertising: Sales Clicking for Dietetic Pop.” New York Times, May 20: 68. O’Connor, A. 2015. “Coca-Cola Funds Effort to Alter Obesity Battle.” New York Times, Aug. 10: A1. Ors, R., E. Ozek, G. Baysoy, et al. 1999. “Comparison of Sucrose and Human Milk on Pain Response in Newborns.” European Journal of Pediatrics 158, no. 1 (Jan.): 63–66.

London: Tim Goodwin. Smith, C. J., E. M. Manahan, and S. G. Pablo. 1994. “Food Habit and Cultural Changes Among the Pima Indians.” In Joe and Young, eds., 1994, 407–33. Smith, D. 1952. “Fight Continues Between Dentists, Sugar Industry.” Boston Globe, Sept. 1: 34. Snapper, I. 1960. Bedside Medicine. New York: Grune & Stratton. Sniderman, A. D., K. Williams, J. H. Contois, et al. 2011. “A Meta-Analysis of Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, Non-High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, and Apolipoprotein B as Markers of Cardiovascular Risk.” Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes 4, no. 3 (May): 337–45. Snowden, C. 2015. “The Coca-Cola ‘Exposé’ Had All the Spin of a Classic Anti-Sugar Smear Piece.” Spectator, Oct. 12. At https://​health.​spectator.​co.​uk/​the-​coca-​cola-​expose-​had-all-​the-spin-​of-a-​classic-​anti-sugar-​smear-​piece/.

 

pages: 327 words: 103,336

Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer by Duncan J. Watts

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affirmative action, Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Black Swan, butterfly effect, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, clockwork universe, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, complexity theory, correlation does not imply causation, crowdsourcing, death of newspapers, discovery of DNA, East Village, easy for humans, difficult for computers, edge city, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, framing effect, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, happiness index / gross national happiness, high batting average, hindsight bias, illegal immigration, interest rate swap, invention of the printing press, invention of the telescope, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, lake wobegon effect, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, medical malpractice, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, natural language processing, Netflix Prize, Network effects, oil shock, packet switching, pattern recognition, performance metric, phenotype, planetary scale, prediction markets, pre–internet, RAND corporation, random walk, RFID, school choice, Silicon Valley, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, supply-chain management, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, Toyota Production System, ultimatum game, urban planning, Vincenzo Peruggia: Mona Lisa, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, X Prize

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything. New York: William Morrow & Co. Lewis, Michael. 2009. “The No-Stats All-Star.” New York Times Magazine, February 13. Lewis, Randall, and David Reiley. 2009. “Retail Advertising Works! Measuring the Effects of Advertising on Sales via a Controlled Experiment on Yahoo.” Working paper, Yahoo. Lodish, Leonard M., Magid Abraham, Stuart Kalmenson, et al. 1995a. “How TV Advertising Works: A Meta-analysis of 389 Real World Split Cable TV Advertising Experiments.” Journal of Marketing Research 32: 125–39. Lodish, Leonard M., Magid Abraham, Jeanne Livelsberger, et al. 1995b. “A Summary of Fifty-five In-Market Experimental Estimates of the Long-term Effect of TV Advertising.” Marketing Science 14 (3):133–40. Lohmann, Susanne. 1994. “The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989–91.”

Rice, Andrew. 2010. “Putting a Price on Words.” New York Times Magazine, May 10. Riding, Alan. 2005. “In Louvre, New Room with View of ‘Mona Lisa.’ ” New York Times, April 6. Rigney, Daniel. 2010. The Matthew Effect: How Advantage Begets Further Advantage. New York: Columbia University Press. Robbins, Jordan M., and Joachim I. Krueger. 2005. “Social Projection to Ingroups and Outgroups: A Review and Meta-analysis.” Personality and Social Psychology Review 9:32–47. Rogers, Everett M. 1995. Diffusion of Innovations, 4th ed. New York: Free Press. Roese, Neal J., and James M. Olson. 1996. “Counterfactuals, Causal Attributions, and the Hindsight Bias: A Conceptual Integration.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 32 (3):197–227. Rosen, Emmanuel. 2000. The Anatomy of Buzz: How to Create Word-of-Mouth Marketing.

 

pages: 300 words: 65,976

The Gospel of Food: Everything You Think You Know About Food Is Wrong by Barry Glassner

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Gary Taubes, haute cuisine, income inequality, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, placebo effect, profit motive, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Saturday Night Live, stem cell, urban sprawl, working poor

., “Intake of Fatty Acids and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in a Cohort of Finnish Men,” American Journal of Epidemiology 145 (1997): 876–87; Uffe Ravnskov, “Diet–Heart Disease Hypothesis Is Wishful Thinking,” British Medical Journal 324 (2002): 238; Hester Vorster et al., “Egg Intake Does Not Change Plasma Lipoprotein and Coagulation Profiles,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 55 (1992): 400–410; Paul N. Hopkins, “Effects of Dietary Cholesterol on Serum Cholesterol: A Meta-Analysis and Review,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 55 (1992): 1060–70; Esther Lopez-Garcia, M. Schulze, et al., “Consumption of Trans Fatty Acids Is Related to Plasma Biomarkers of Inflammation and Endothelial Dysfunction,” Journal of Nutrition 135 (2005): 562–66. 21. Emily Green, “No—Less Is Less,” Los Angeles Times, May 10, 2000. 22. Emily Green, “The Low-Fat-Free, Diet-Food-Free Diet” and “Virtue with a Touch of Gloss,” Los Angeles Times, March 13 and July 24, 2002. 23.

On the PCRM, see, for example, Mary Carmichael, “Atkins Under Attack,” Newsweek, February 23, 2004; Joe Sharkey, “Perennial Foes Meet Again in a Battle of the Snack Bar,” New York Times, November 23, 2004; “Who’s Who in Animal Rights,” Observer (London), August 1, 2004. 10. See, for example, Nestle, Food Politics, part 4; “Vitamin A: ‘Magic Bullet’ That Can Backfire,” Tufts Nutrition Letter (February 2005); Edgar Miller, Roberto Pastor-Barriuso, et al., “Meta-Analysis: High-Dosage Vitamin E Supplementation May Increase All-Cause Mortality,” Annals of Internal Medicine 142 (2005): 37–46. 11. USDA Food Guidance System Public Comment Meeting, August 19, 2004: 101 (www.usda.gov/cnpp/pyramid-update/Comments/Oral%20Comm entsTranscript.pdf); Warren Belasco, “Futures Notes: The Meal-in-a-Pill,” Food and Foodways 8 (2000): 253–71. Except as otherwise noted, my analysis and quoted material below utilize the Belasco article.

 

pages: 379 words: 109,612

Is the Internet Changing the Way You Think?: The Net's Impact on Our Minds and Future by John Brockman

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A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Albert Einstein, AltaVista, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Asperger Syndrome, availability heuristic, Benoit Mandelbrot, biofilm, Black Swan, British Empire, conceptual framework, corporate governance, Danny Hillis, Douglas Engelbart, Emanuel Derman, epigenetics, Flynn Effect, Frank Gehry, Google Earth, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, index card, information retrieval, Internet Archive, invention of writing, Jane Jacobs, Jaron Lanier, Kevin Kelly, lone genius, loss aversion, mandelbrot fractal, Marshall McLuhan, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Journalism, Nicholas Carr, out of africa, Ponzi scheme, pre–internet, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Schrödinger's Cat, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, SETI@home, Silicon Valley, Skype, slashdot, smart grid, social graph, social software, social web, Stephen Hawking, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, telepresence, the medium is the message, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, trade route, upwardly mobile, Vernor Vinge, Whole Earth Catalog, X Prize

The tools for research and communication about this research developed, along with new thinking about mind-machine interaction, the future of education, the impact of the Internet on texts and writing, and the issues of filtering, relevance, learning, and memory. And then somehow the creature became autonomous, an ordinary part of our universe. We are no longer surprised, no longer engaged in so much meta-analysis. We are dependent. Some of us are addicted to this marvelous tool, this multifaceted medium that is—as predicted even ten years ago—concentrating all of communication, knowledge, entertainment, business. I, like many of us, spend so many hours before a computer screen, typing away, even when surrounded by countless books, that it is hard to say exactly how the Internet has affected me. The Internet is becoming as ordinary as the telephone.

We can finally harness the law of large numbers to improve our decision making: the larger the sample of peer ratings, the more accurate the average. As ratings accumulate, margins of error shrink, confidence intervals get tighter, and estimates improve. Ordinary consumers have access to better product rating data than market researchers could hope to collect. Online peer ratings empower us to be evidence-based about almost all our decisions. For most goods and services—and, indeed, most domains of life—they offer a kind of informal meta-analysis, an aggregation of data across all the analyses already performed by like-minded consumers. Judgment becomes socially distributed and statistical rather than individual and anecdotal. Rational-choice economists might argue that sales figures are a better indication than online ratings of real consumer preferences, insofar as people vote with their dollars to reveal their preferences. This ignores the problem of buyer’s remorse: Consumers buy many things that they find disappointing.

 

pages: 368 words: 96,825

Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth and Impact the World by Peter H. Diamandis, Steven Kotler

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3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, cloud computing, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, dematerialisation, deskilling, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Exxon Valdez, fear of failure, Firefox, Galaxy Zoo, Google Glasses, Google Hangouts, Google X / Alphabet X, gravity well, industrial robot, Internet of things, Jeff Bezos, John Harrison: Longitude, Jono Bacon, Just-in-time delivery, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, Law of Accelerating Returns, Lean Startup, life extension, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, Mars Rover, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, minimum viable product, move fast and break things, Narrative Science, Netflix Prize, Network effects, Oculus Rift, optical character recognition, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, performance metric, Peter H. Diamandis: Planetary Resources, Peter Thiel, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, rolodex, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, skunkworks, Skype, smart grid, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, telepresence, telepresence robot, Turing test, urban renewal, web application, X Prize, Y Combinator

Each chapter will close with a very concrete how-to section, intended to allow anyone to finish the reading and jump immediately into the doing. To gather the advice in the how-to sections in part three, my team did exhaustive research, interviewing over a hundred top platform providers, the very people behind all of these crowd-powered companies, and speaking with top users, those exponential entrepreneurs who have already succeeded in leveraging crowd tools to tackle the bold. We also conducted a meta-analysis of all the various how-to articles online and in major reports, distilling key lessons and insights. Finally, during the same time this work was going on, I had the opportunity to implement much of this advice, putting it to the test in my own companies. Taken together, my hope is that these how-to sections serve as a comprehensive playbook, literally a user’s guide for going big, creating wealth, and impacting the world.

The final example is the ARKYD Space Telescope, a campaign run by my company Planetary Resources, which helped us start and forge an enormously passionate community of space enthusiasts—generating the kind of support that is absolutely required by this kind of future-forward project.15 One quick clarification: these examples have been kept intentionally short because they’ll again be followed by a lengthy how-to section—the real meat of this chapter. It’s here we’ll break down everything you need to know to get started, providing information drawn from four sources: a meta-analysis of all the major crowdfunding guides that have appeared in the past few years (twenty-six in total); lengthy interviews with the founders and CEOs of major crowdfunding companies such as Indiegogo, RocketHub, and Crowdfunder; lengthy interviews with entrepreneurs who have run incredibly successful campaigns (for example, Eric Migicovsky, creator of the Pebble Watch campaign); and finally, my own personal experience raising $1.5 million via crowdfunding, which at the time was the twenty-fifth most successful Kickstarter campaign ever.

 

pages: 314 words: 101,034

Every Patient Tells a Story by Lisa Sanders

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data acquisition, discovery of penicillin, high batting average, index card, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, pattern recognition, randomized controlled trial, Ronald Reagan

How expertise develops in medicine: knowledge encapsulation and illness script formation. Med Ed. 2007;41:1133–39, Charlin B, et al. Scripts and clinical reasoning. Med Ed. 2007;41:1178–84. 29 One of the ways doctors are taught to think about disease: Mangruikar RS, et al. What is the role of the clinical “pearl.” Am J Med. 2002; 113(7):617–24. Ioannidis JPA, Lau J. Uncontrolled pearls, controlled evidence, meta-analysis and the individual patient. J Clin Epidemiolo. 1998;51(8):709–11. 31 Dr. André Lemierre, a physician in Paris, first described this disease in 1936: Lemierre A. On certain septicemias due to anaerobic organisms. Lancet. 1936;1:701–3. Centor RM. Should Lemierre’s syndrome re-emergence change pharyngitis guidelines? Manuscript from author. Singhal A, Kerstein MD. Lemierre’s syndrome. Medscape. 2001;94(9):886–87. http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/410830. 32 Like those presented to Fitzgerald: Hunter KM.

Association of chronic Lyme arthritis with HLA-DR4 and HLA-DR2 alleles. N Engl J Med. 1990;323:219–223. 178 They recruited one hundred residents: Shadick NA, Phillips CB, Logigian EL, Steere AC, Kaplan RF, Berardi VP, et al. The long-term clinical outcomes of Lyme disease. A population-based retrospective cohort study. Ann Int Med. 1994;121:560–567. 178 Other studies too have found: Cairn V, Godwin J. Post-Lyme borreliosis syndrome: a meta-analysis of reported symptoms. Int J Epi. 2005;34:1340–1345. 179 Researchers at Tufts Medical Center: Klempner MS, et al. Two controlled trials of antibiotic treatment in patients with persistent symptoms and a history of Lyme disease. N Engl J Med. 2001;345:85–92. 179 Two other rigorous trials: Krupps LB, et al. Study and treatment of post Lyme disease. Neurology. 2003;60:1923–1930. Fallon BA. A randomized, placebo-controlled trial of repeated IV antibiotic therapy for Lyme encephalopathy.

 

pages: 295 words: 89,280

The Narcissist Next Door by Jeffrey Kluger

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Albert Einstein, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Bernie Madoff, Columbine, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, Elon Musk, impulse control, Jony Ive, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, QWERTY keyboard, Ralph Nader, Ronald Reagan, Schrödinger's Cat, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, theory of mind, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, Walter Mischel

A whole lot of people are now moving up that scale, developing cases of subclinical, or lowercase-n, narcissism that may not shut down governments but may cause plenty of personal harm to the people around them. In 2008, a team of researchers published a study in the Journal of Personality looking at narcissism among college students over a twenty-seven-year period, from 1979 to 2006. Their paper was what’s known as a meta-analysis, a recrunching of the data from eighty-five separate narcissism studies covering a collective 16,475 subjects. All of the people surveyed had been administered the Narcissistic Personality Inventory (NPI), a forty-item questionnaire that requires subjects to choose between such essentially opposite statements as “I insist upon getting the respect that is due me” and “I usually get the respect that I deserve”; “Sometimes I tell good stories” and “Everybody likes to hear my stories”; “I can read people like a book” and “People are sometimes hard to understand”; “I am more capable than other people” and “There is a lot I can learn from other people.”

When children in the 1950s were administered the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI)—an exceedingly detailed survey that requires subjects to answer hundreds of true-false questions measuring personality on multiple dimensions—only 12 percent agreed with the statement “I am a special person.” By the late 1980s, the figure had exploded to 80 percent. Other studies in the 1990s showed similar high numbers of kids agreeing with such statements as “I have often met people who are supposed to be experts who are no better than I.” A 2012 meta-analysis of results from the American Freshman Survey, a personality inventory that has been administered to a collective nine million incoming college students in the United States over the past forty-seven years, has found that in every one of five different personality dimensions tested—drive to achieve, intellectual self-confidence, belief in leadership ability, social self-confidence and belief in writing ability—scores have been steadily on the rise, with up to 75 percent of kids believing they are above average.

 

pages: 327 words: 97,720

Loneliness: Human Nature and the Need for Social Connection by John T. Cacioppo

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Alfred Russel Wallace, biofilm, butterfly effect, Celebration, Florida, corporate governance, delayed gratification, experimental subject, impulse control, income inequality, Jane Jacobs, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, post-industrial society, Rodney Brooks, Ted Kaczynski, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, theory of mind, urban planning, urban renewal, Walter Mischel

A dozen years earlier, the epidemiologist Lisa Berkman had found that men and women with few ties to others were two to three times more likely to die in a nine-year follow-up period than those who had many more contacts. People with few social ties were at increased risk of dying from ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular and circulatory disease, cancer, and a broader category that included respiratory, gastrointestinal, and all other causes of death.3 In 1988 an article in Science reviewed subsequent research, and that meta-analysis indicated that social isolation is on a par with high blood pressure, obesity, lack of exercise, or smoking as a risk factor for illness and early death.4 For some time the most common explanation for this sizeable effect has been the “social control hypothesis.” This theory holds that, in the absence of a spouse or close friends who might provide material help or a more positive influence, individuals may have a greater tendency to gain weight, to drink too much, or to skip exercise.

In a culture built around disconnection, the better move is to work that much harder to reach out to those with whom we share even the most superficial contact in the everyday world. Gatherings As an obligatorily gregarious species, we humans have a need not just to belong in an abstract sense but to actually get together. Congregating physically may actually play a role in an association found between religious observance and decreased morbidity and mortality. The sociologists Lynda H. Powell, Leila Shahabi, and Carl E. Thoresen conducted a meta-analysis of the extensive literature on religion and health, exploring nine different hypotheses that might account for the purportedly positive effects. Do religious people live longer and healthier lives because of the more conservative and healthful lifestyle that religion promotes? Is it the power of prayer? Or is it something about spirituality in itself that is affecting us at the cellular level?

 

pages: 350 words: 96,803

Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution by Francis Fukuyama

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Albert Einstein, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, Columbine, demographic transition, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Flynn Effect, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, impulse control, life extension, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, Peter Singer: altruism, phenotype, presumed consent, Ray Kurzweil, Scientific racism, stem cell, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, Turing test

., p. 10. 4 Kramer (1993); and Elizabeth Wurtzel, Prozac Nation: A Memoir (New York: Riverhead Books, 1994). 5 Kramer (1993), pp. 1–9. 6 Joseph Glenmullen, Prozac Backlash: Overcoming the Dangers of Prozac, Zoloft, Paxil, and Other Antidepressants with Safe, Effective Alternatives (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2000), p. 15. 7 Irving Kirsch and Guy Sapirstein, “Listening to Prozac but Hearing Placebo: A Meta-Analysis of Antidepressant Medication,” Prevention and Treatment 1 (1998); Larry E. Beutler, “Prozac and Placebo: There’s a Pony in There Somewhere,” Prevention and Treatment 1 (1998); and Seymour Fisher and Roger P. Greenberg, “Prescriptions for Happiness?,” Psychology Today 28 (1995): 32–38. 8 Peter R. Breggin and Ginger Ross Breggin, Talking Back to Prozac: What Doctors Won’t Tell You About Today’s Most Controversial Drug (New York: St.

New York: Free Press, 1985. Kevles, Daniel T., and Leroy Hood, eds. The Code of Codes: Scientific and Social Issues in the Human Genome Project. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1992. Kirkwood, Tom. Time of Our Lives: Why Ageing Is Neither Inevitable nor Necessary. London: Phoenix, 1999. Kirsch, Irving, and Guy Sapirstein. “Listening to Prozac but Hearing Placebo: A Meta-Analysis of Antidepressant Medication.” Prevention and Treatment I (1998). Klam, Matthew. “Experiencing Ecstasy.” The New York Times Magazine, January 21, 2001. Kolata, Gina. Clone: The Road to Dolly and the Path Ahead. New York: William Morrow, 1998. ———. “Genetic Defects Detected In Embryos Just Days Old.” The New York Times, September 24, 1992, p. A1. Kolehmainen, Sophia. “Human Cloning: Brave New Mistake.”

 

pages: 519 words: 104,396

Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (And How to Take Advantage of It) by William Poundstone

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availability heuristic, Cass Sunstein, collective bargaining, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Donald Trump, East Village, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, equal pay for equal work, experimental economics, experimental subject, feminist movement, game design, German hyperinflation, Henri Poincaré, high net worth, index card, invisible hand, John von Neumann, laissez-faire capitalism, loss aversion, market bubble, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nash equilibrium, new economy, payday loans, Potemkin village, price anchoring, price discrimination, psychological pricing, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, random walk, RFID, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, rolodex, Steve Jobs, The Chicago School, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, ultimatum game, working poor

Neale (1987). “Experts, Amateurs, and Real Estate: An Anchoring-and-Adjustment Perspective on Property Pricing Decisions.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 84, 87–93. Oosterbeek, Hessel, Randolph Sloof, and Gijs van de Kuilen (2004). “Cultural Differences in Ultimatum Game Experiments: Evidence from a Meta-analysis.” Experimental Economics 7, 171–88. Orr, Dan, and Chris Guthrie (2006). “Anchoring, Information, Expertise, and Negotiation: New Insights from Meta-Analysis.” Ohio State Journal on Dispute Resolution 21, 597–628. Available at ssrn.com/abstract=900152. Phillips, Lawrence D., and Detlof von Winterfeldt (2006). “Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards to Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research.” London School of Economics and Political Science, working paper LSEOR 06.86.

 

pages: 340 words: 92,904

Street Smart: The Rise of Cities and the Fall of Cars by Samuel I. Schwartz

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2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, active transport: walking or cycling, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, autonomous vehicles, car-free, City Beautiful movement, collaborative consumption, congestion charging, crowdsourcing, desegregation, Enrique Peñalosa, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frederick Winslow Taylor, if you build it, they will come, intermodal, invention of the wheel, lake wobegon effect, Loma Prieta earthquake, Lyft, Masdar, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Nate Silver, oil shock, Productivity paradox, Ralph Nader, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, Rosa Parks, self-driving car, skinny streets, smart cities, smart grid, smart transportation, the built environment, the map is not the territory, transportation-network company, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, Unsafe at Any Speed, urban decay, urban planning, urban renewal, walkable city, Wall-E, white flight, Works Progress Administration, Yogi Berra, Zipcar

MAPS 3 included two new parks, one of forty acres, the other thirty, connecting downtown Oklahoma City with the Oklahoma River; between twenty-five and thirty-six miles of new sidewalks; and nearly thirty-five miles of bike paths and walking trails. And, while I’m not sure this actually qualifies as active transportation, MAPS 3 upgraded the banks of the Oklahoma River to accommodate both rowing and kayaking facilities.j It also called for a state-of-the-art streetcar system running on five miles of rails through Oklahoma City’s downtown, which isn’t, strictly speaking, a form of active transportation. However, a meta-analysis—a research technique that combines multiple investigations, giving different statistical weights to each one depending on its findings—of fifty different studies found that one of the most important factors in walkability was connectivity: the ease with which walkers could get from one street to another. Streetcars that run regularly on routes perpendicular to walking routes make it a lot easier for pedestrians to get where they need to go.

“America’s Most Obese Cities.” Forbes, November 7, 2007. Schmitt, Angie. “The Importance of Driving to the U.S. Economy Started Waning in the 70s.” StreetsBlog USA, December 18, 2014. “ ———. The Koch Brothers’ War on Transit.” StreetsBlog USA, September 2014. Schwartz, Samuel I., and Shauna Tarshis Colasuonno. “VIM: Not Just Another Acronym.” ITE Journal (September 1982): 23–27. Seto, Karen C., et al. “A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion.” PLoS One 6, no. 8 (August 2011): e23777. Shoup, Donald C. “Free Parking or Free Markets.” Access: The Magazine of the University of California Transportation Center 38 (Spring 2011). ———. “The High Cost of Free Parking.” Journal of Planning Education and Research 17, no. 1 (Fall 1997): 201–216. Silberg, Gary, and Richard Wallace. Self-Driving Cars: The Next Revolution.

 

pages: 244 words: 37,906

Spiralizer Cookbook by Rockridge Press

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meta analysis, meta-analysis

Accessed March 12, 2015. http://www.celiaccentral.org/non-celiac-gluten-sensitivity/introduction-and-definitions. “The New Way to Make a Homemade (Healthy!) Pasta Dinner.” Good Housekeeping. (Accessed Sep. 30, 2014). http://www.goodhousekeeping.com/product-reviews/test-kitchen-blog/spiralizer-spiraled-vegetables. Santos, F. L., S. S. Esteves, A. da Costa Pereira, W. S. Yancy Jr., and J. P. L. Nunes. “Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Clinical Trials of the Effects of Low Carbohydrate Diets on Cardiovascular Risk Factors.” Obesity Reviews (July 2012), doi/10.1111/j.1467-789X.2012.01021.x/ “Spiral Slicers (Spiralizers).” Cook’s Illustrated. Accessed March 12, 2015. http://www.cooksillustrated.com/equipment_reviews/1540-spiral-slicers-spiralizers. WebMD. “Celiac Disease Treatment.” Accessed March 12, 2015. http://www.webmd.com/digestive-disorders/celiac-disease/celiac-disease-treatment

 

pages: 100 words: 28,911

A Short Guide to a Long Life by David B. Agus

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Danny Hillis, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Murray Gell-Mann, personalized medicine, placebo effect, risk tolerance, the scientific method

For now, the following rules are relevant based on the data we have available that convincingly show the best practices for reducing your risk of disease. While it’s true that you can find single, unrepeated studies that contradict my ideas, that’s not how science works. When scientists weigh in on a topic, they can’t just rely on single studies that support their view. Instead, they have to consider all the studies on a topic and examine the results of each. That is exactly what a meta-analysis does. Hence, all of my prescriptions are rooted in studies that meet this gold standard. They always will be. And if the day comes when science uproots an established “truth” or does a complete 180 on a universally accepted fact, then I will welcome that new viewpoint with excitement and resolve (and a new rule). Ground Rule 2 The rules in this book are not meant to be blanket recommendations, especially when it comes to prescription medications.

 

pages: 1,351 words: 385,579

The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined by Steven Pinker

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1960s counterculture, affirmative action, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, Albert Einstein, availability heuristic, Berlin Wall, Bonfire of the Vanities, British Empire, Broken windows theory, California gold rush, Cass Sunstein, citation needed, clean water, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Columbine, computer age, conceptual framework, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, crack epidemic, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, demographic transition, desegregation, Doomsday Clock, Douglas Hofstadter, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, experimental subject, facts on the ground, failed state, first-past-the-post, Flynn Effect, food miles, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, fudge factor, full employment, ghettoisation, Gini coefficient, global village, Henri Poincaré, impulse control, income inequality, informal economy, invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, lake wobegon effect, libertarian paternalism, loss aversion, Marshall McLuhan, McMansion, means of production, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, open economy, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Singer: altruism, QWERTY keyboard, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, random walk, Republic of Letters, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, Saturday Night Live, security theater, Skype, Slavoj Žižek, South China Sea, statistical model, stem cell, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, Turing machine, ultimatum game, uranium enrichment, V2 rocket, Walter Mischel, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce

., 1997; van Beijsterveldt, Bartels, Hudziak, & Boomsma, 2003; van den Oord, Boomsma, & Verhulst, 1994. 141. Aggression in separated twins: Bouchard & McGue, 2003, table 6. 142. Aggression in adoptees: van den Oord et al., 1994; see also Rhee & Waldman, 2007. 143. Aggression in twins: Cloninger & Gottesman, 1987; Eley et al., 1999; Ligthart et al., 2005; Rhee & Waldman, 2007; Slutske et al., 1997; van Beijsterveldt et al., 2003. 144. Meta-analysis of behavioral genetics of aggression: Rhee & Waldman, 2007. 145. Violent crime in twins: Cloninger & Gottesman, 1987. 146. Pedomorphy and self-domestication: Wrangham, 2009b; Wrangham & Pilbeam, 2001. 147. Heritability of gray matter distribution: Thompson et al., 2001. 148. Heritability of white matter connectivity: Chiang et al., 2009. 149. Making voles monogamous: McGraw & Young, 2010. 150.

., & Schmitt, D. P. 1993. Sexual strategies theory: An evolutionary perspective on human mating. Psychological Review, 100, 204–32. Bussman, M., & Schneider, G. 2007. When globalization discontent turns violent: Foreign economic liberalization and internal war. International Studies Quarterly, 51, 79–97. Byrnes, J. P., Miller, D. C., & Schafer, W. D. 1999. Gender differences in risk-taking: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 125, 367–83. C-SPAN. 2010. C-SPAN 2009 Historians presidential leadership survey. http://legacy.c-span.org/PresidentialSurvey/presidential-leadership-survey.aspx. Cairns, R. B., Gariépy, J.-L., & Hood, K. E. 1990. Development, microevolution, and social behavior. Psychological Review, 97, 49–65. Capital Punishment U.K. 2004. The end of capital punishment in Europe. http://www.capitalpunishmentuk.org/europe.html.

How thick is blood? Ethnic & Racial Studies, 22, 789–820. Gilad, Y. 2002. Evidence for positive selection and population structure at the human MAO-A gene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99, 862–67. Gilbert, S. J., Spengler, S., Simons, J. S., Steele, J. D., Lawrie, S. M., Frith, C. D., & Burgess, P. W. 2006. Functional specialization within rostral prefrontal cortex (Area 10): A meta-analysis. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 18, 932–48. Gilligan, C. 1982. In a different voice: Psychological theory and women’s development. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Ginges, J., & Atran, S. 2008. Humiliation and the inertia effect: Implications for understanding violence and compromise in intractable intergroup conflicts. Journal of Cognition & Culture, 8, 281–94. Ginges, J., Atran, S., Medin, D., & Shikaki, K. 2007.

 

Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David Aronson

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Albert Einstein, Andrew Wiles, asset allocation, availability heuristic, backtesting, Black Swan, capital asset pricing model, cognitive dissonance, compound rate of return, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, distributed generation, Elliott wave, en.wikipedia.org, feminist movement, hindsight bias, index fund, invention of the telescope, invisible hand, Long Term Capital Management, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, p-value, pattern recognition, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, price stability, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Ralph Nelson Elliott, random walk, retrograde motion, revision control, risk tolerance, risk-adjusted returns, riskless arbitrage, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Sharpe ratio, short selling, statistical model, systematic trading, the scientific method, transfer pricing, unbiased observer, yield curve, Yogi Berra

The seminal study comparing the accuracy of subjective predictions (expert intuition) to predictions based on statistical rules (models) was done by Paul Meehl33 in 1954. It was a review of prior studies, known as a meta-analysis, which examined 20 studies that had compared the subjective diagnoses of psychologists and psychiatrists with those produced by linear statistical models. The studies covered the prediction of academic success, the likelihood of criminal recidivism, and predicting the outcomes of electrical shock therapy. In each case, the experts rendered a judgment by evaluating a multitude of variables in a subjective manner. “In all studies, the statistical model provided more accurate predictions or the two methods tied.”34 A subsequent study by Sawyer35 was a meta analysis of 45 studies. “Again, there was not a single study in which clinical global judgment was superior to the statistical prediction (termed ‘mechanical combination’ by Sawyer).”36 Sawyer’s investigation is noteworthy because he considered studies in which the human expert was allowed access to information that was not considered by the statistical model, and yet the model was still superior.

The studies include prediction of academic performance, life-expectancy of cancer patients, changes in stock prices, psychological diagnosis, bankruptcy, student ratings of teacher effectiveness, sales performance, and IQ based on Rorschach test. The average correlation between prediction and outcome for expert judgment was 0.33 on a scale of 0 to 1.0. The average correlation for the objective model was 0.64. In a meta-analysis of over 100 peer-reviewed studies comparing expert judgment with statistical rules, statistical rules were more accurate in 96 percent of the cases. See J.A. Swets, R.M. Dawes, and J. Monahan, “Psychological Science Can Improve Diagnostic Decisions,” Psychological Science in the Public Interest 1 (2000). 482 NOTES 27. If each variable is assigned a value of 0 for low and 1 for high, the possible values of a sum are: 0 (all have values of zero), 1 (one variable has a value of 1 and two are zero), 2 ( two variables have values of 1 and one has a value of zero), and 3 ( all have values of 1). 28.

 

pages: 1,294 words: 210,361

The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biography of Cancer by Siddhartha Mukherjee

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Barry Marshall: ulcers, conceptual framework, discovery of penicillin, experimental subject, iterative process, life extension, Louis Pasteur, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, New Journalism, phenotype, randomized controlled trial, scientific mainstream, Silicon Valley, social web, statistical model, stem cell, women in the workforce, éminence grise

In total, the trials used for the report encompassed studies on about 1,123,000 men and women—one of the largest cohorts ever analyzed in an epidemiological report. Each member of the committee brought insight to a unique dimension of the puzzle. The precise and meticulous Cochran devised a new mathematical insight to judge the trials. Rather than privilege any particular study, he reasoned, perhaps one could use a method to estimate the relative risk as a composite number through all trials in the aggregate. (This method, termed meta-analysis, would deeply influence academic epidemiology in the future.) The organic chemist in Fieser was similarly roused: his discussion of chemicals in smoke remains one of the most authoritative texts on the subject. Evidence was culled from animal experiments, from autopsy series, from thirty-six clinical studies, and, crucially, from seven independent prospective trials. Piece by piece, a highly incontrovertible and consistent picture emerged.

., 191 “Ella” (VAMP protocol survivor), 148–50 Ellie: A Child’s Fight Against Leukemia (Tucker), 21 embryonic stem cells, 458 Enders, John, 22, 94 Endicott, Kenneth, 162, 171, 177, 260 environmentalists, 456 enzymes, viral, 352–53, 354 epidemiology, 238, 243, 245 case-control studies in, 245, 246–47, 276, 280 causality and, 253–56, 276, 290, 350 Framingham longitudinal data and, 444–45 meta-analysis and, 261 molecular, 457 preventive medicine and, 290, 457 recall bias in, 446 tobacco-cancer link and, 241–42, 247, 248–49, 250, 261 Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), 175 Erikson, Ray, 358, 361, 368, 375 Erk protein, 387, 454 Erwin, Bob, 429 esophageal cancer, 274, 305 estrogen, 211, 213, 456 breast cancer and, 215, 221, 222–23, 456, 464 receptor in, 215, 216, 217, 464 etoposide, 206 Evans, Audrey, 123 evolution, 39, 247–48 Ewing, James, 30n extended field radiation, 159–61, 163 extirpations, 23 Faget, Max, 178 fairness doctrine, 265–66, 267 “Fall, The” (Milosz), 116 false positives, false negatives, 291–92 Farber, Emmanuel, 259, 261 Farber, Norma, 30 Farber, Sidney, 129, 162, 286, 395 as advocate for cancer research, 100, 171–72, 189 background of, 18–19 cancer research hospital project of, see Jimmy’s Clinic cancer research of, 122–23, 126–27 chemotherapy regimens devised by, 103 chemotherapy seen as universal cure by, 93, 155, 403 colostomy of, 118 death of, 189–90, 193, 461 as fund-raiser, 102 isolation of, 27, 35, 101–2 at Jimmy’s Clinic, 125–26, 153, 189–90 leukemia research of, 19–20, 21, 27, 29–30, 31, 33–36, 92, 100, 101, 114, 121, 122–23, 130, 132, 136, 158, 309, 338, 433, 439 M.

., 26 Marlboro Man, 251 Marmite, 28 Marshall, Barry, 276, 281, 282–84, 456 Martin, Steve, 358 Masi, Phil, 97–98 Massachusetts, 325 Massachusetts General Hospital, 3, 56, 223, 320, 390, 398, 403, 437, 451 mastectomies, 49, 419 of Atossa, 5, 41–42, 463 disfigurement from, 65–66, 294 prophylactic, 457–58, 464 radical, 23, 64–72, 73, 109–10, 173, 193–95, 196, 197, 198–201, 202, 218, 219, 225, 294, 463 simple (local), 67, 197, 201, 464 success rate of, 66–69 Master Settlement Agreement (MSA), 273 Matter, Alex, 432–33 mauve, 81–82 Mayer, Robert, 130–31, 311, 326, 328 Mayfield, Jerry, 441, 442–43 MD Anderson Cancer Center, 147, 366, 438 measurement: of leukemia, 19 of negative claims, 167–68 of radiation, 74 in War on Cancer, 227, 231, 232–33 Medical and Chirurgical Society, 157 Medical Journal of Australia, 283 Medical Research Council (British), 131, 243–44 Medical World News, 349 medicine: synthetic chemistry and, 83–84 as technological art, 462 Mek protein, 387, 454 melanoma, 451 Memorial Sloan-Kettering, 92, 135, 138, 167n, 184, 234, 424 Mendel, Gregor, 343–44, 346, 364, 366, 369 meningiomas, 71 menopausal symptoms, 456 Mercer, Robert, 34 Merck, 21 Meselson, Matthew, 345 meta-analysis, 261 metastasis, metastases, 16, 38, 39, 55, 58, 123, 135, 136, 154, 161, 196–97, 204, 223, 391, 442, 465, 467 of breast cancer, 67, 76, 161, 217, 218, 302–3, 314, 322, 325, 329, 419, 422, 424, 463, 465 of Hodgkin’s lymphoma, 163 as inevitable, 79 of lung cancer, 208, 256, 267, 268, 307, 389–90, 403 methotrexate, 127, 132–33, 137, 138, 140, 162, 164, 219, 220, 338 Mexico, cigarette regulation in, 274 Meyer, Willy, 65, 78–79, 80, 219 mice, transgenic, 382–83, 384 microtubules, 140 Middle Ages, medical knowledge in, 49–50, 51–53 Million Women Study, 456 Milosz, Czeslaw, 116 Milstein, Cesar, 417, 419 Ministry of Health, British, 243 Ministry of Health, Mexican, 274 Minot, George, 27–28, 29 Mississippi, antitobacco lawsuit of, 272–73 mitosis, 451 mitosis, pathological, 348, 351, 355, 359, 387, 391 see also hyperplasia, pathological Mizutani, Satoshi, 353 molecular biology, “central dogma” of, 346, 352, 354, 357 molecular pumps, 442 molecules: decoy, 31, 87 structural view of, 432 as switches, 28 see also receptors Moloney, William, 143 Monod, Jacques, 20, 345, 346 mononucleosis, 175 Montagnier, Luc, 318 Moore, Charles, 64 Moore, Michael, 272–73 MOPP, 164–66, 208 Morbid Anatomy of Some of the Most Important Parts of the Human Body, The (Baillie), 53 Morgan, Thomas Hunt, 344, 346, 347–48, 364 Morison, Robert, 116 morphine, 63, 149, 225 mortality rates, of cancer, xi, 25, 105, 228–30, 293, 401 age-adjusted, 230–31, 232–33, 330 of breast cancer, 296, 297, 300–301, 401–2 dynamic equilibrium in, 330–31 mortality rates, of tuberculosis, 229 Morton, William, 56 motility, of cancer cells, 386, 387, 388 see also metastasis, metastases MRIs, 457, 464 Mukherjee, Leela, 398 Mukherjee, Siddhartha: Berne and, 467–70 and daughter’s birth, 398–99 as oncology fellow, 2–5, 168, 190, 305–6, 307–8, 337, 390, 398–99, 437–38, 467 Orman and, 152–53, 399–400 palliative care suggested by, 223–24 Reed and, 2–3, 7, 17–18, 127, 168–69, 190, 337, 338–39, 400, 448–49 Sorenson and, 153–55 tobacco-cancer link in patients of, 274–75 Muller, Hermann Joseph, 347–48 multidose regimens, see chemotherapy, high-dose multidrug regimens in multiple myeloma, 309, 443–44 mummies, cancer in, 43, 45 Murayama, Hashime, 288 Murphy, Mary Lois, 92 mustard gas, see nitrogen mustard mutagens, mutagenesis, 278, 303, 347, 348, 362, 364, 406, 456 mutation, genetic, 377 in bacteria, 277–78 Cancer Genome Atlas and, 450–54 causes of, see mutagens, mutagenesis driver (active), 453 frequency of, 451–52 in fruit flies, 347 functional vs. structural view of, 455 as governing all aspects of cancer, 387–88, 462 as mechanism of carcinogenesis, 6, 39, 176, 278, 357, 362, 370, 380–83, 384–88, 390–92, 403, 406, 449–50, 462, 464–65 passenger (passive), 452–53 see also oncogenes myc (c-myc) gene, 382–83, 384, 391, 410, 412, 453–54, 458 mycobacteria, 84, 131 myelodysplasia, 306, 309, 312 myeloid cells, 16–17 Myriad Genetics, 381 Nathan, David, 140 National Alliance of Breast Cancer Organizations (NABCO), 327 National Breast Cancer Coalition (NBCC), 426, 429 National Cancer Act (1971), 188, 189 National Cancer Institute (NCI), 15, 114, 130, 158, 159, 166, 177, 188, 228, 231, 318, 325, 330, 339, 374, 393, 443 chemotherapy protocols of, 132–42, 143–50, 164–66, 206–8, 219–20, 232, 310, 317 Clinical Center of, 128–29, 139, 145, 162, 165, 260 creation of, 25–26 Institutional Board of, 137 mammography project (BCDDP) of, 296–98, 302 Pap smear trial of, 289–90 preventative strategies neglected by, 233–34 Special Virus Cancer Program of, 175–76, 280–81, 356, 357 National Cancer Institute Act (1937), 25 National Health Service, British, 294 National Institutes of Health (NIH), 25n, 121, 187, 188, 202–3, 260, 319 National Library of Medicine, 261 National Program for the Conquest of Cancer, 184 National Science Foundation (NSF), 121 National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP), 200–201 National Tuberculosis Association, 259 natural selection, 248 Nature, 354, 379 Nature Medicine, 435 nausea, from chemotherapy, 165, 205–6, 209, 226, 305 Nazis, 290 Neely, Matthew, 25, 173 negative statistical claims, 197–98 Nelson, Marti, 424–25, 429 “funeral procession” for, 425–26 neoplasia, 16, 42, 385 neu, 410–11, 412, 413, 420 neuroblastomas, 410, 413 New England Journal of Medicine, 35–36, 161, 229, 330, 385 Newton, Isaac, 370 New York, HIP in, 294–96, 297 New York, N.Y., AIDS in, 316, 318 New York Amsterdam News, 286 New York Times, 24, 26–27, 105, 117, 119–20, 180–81, 183, 319, 327, 455 Neyman, Jerzy, 197–98 nicotine: addictive properties of, 270–71 see also cigarettes; smoking; tobacco; tobacco industry Nisbet, Robert, 193 nitrogen mustard, 207, 220, 257 bone marrow affected by, 88, 90 DNA damaged by, 163, 406 hyperplasia as halted by, 163, 406 as mustard gas, 87–88, 89–90, 162–63 nitrosoguanidine derivatives, 278 Nixon, Richard M., 180–81, 183, 184, 187–88 Nobel Prize, 28, 87, 91, 176, 348, 363 Norris Center, 323 Norton, Larry, 327, 426 Novartis, 436, 439 Nowell, Peter, 365 NSABP-04 trial, 200–201, 203, 220 Nuland, Sherwin, 38 Ochsner, Alton, 256–57 Oedipus the King (Sophocles), 321 Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD), 90, 119 Oliver Twist (Dickens), 239 oncogenes, 363, 366, 370–71, 380, 384, 402, 409–11, 412, 415, 431, 439, 443, 450, 453, 454, 462, 466 amplification of, 416 pathological hyperplasia induced by, 357–59, 372, 431 proto-, see proto-oncogenes see also specific genes oncology, oncologists, 304, 433 AIDS and, 316–17 death and, 4, 306–8, 337–38 fellowships in, 2–5, 168 origin of term, 47 overconfidence of, 223, 226, 231–32, 234, 308, 310 palliative care and, 224–26, 307 patients’ relationships with, 199, 202, 209, 306–8, 449 radiation, see radiation therapy OncoMouse, 382–83, 384 onkos, 47 etymology of, 466–67 “On Some Morbid Appearances of the Absorbent Glands and Spleen” (Hodgkin), 157 opiates, 226 Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU), 434 Orman, Ben, 151–53, 155, 399–400 Osler, William, 45 osteosarcomas (bone tumors), 43 ovarian cancer, 59, 162, 346, 381, 450, 451, 457 ovaries, removal of, 214, 215 Pacific yew tree, 206 Pack, George, 70–71 Padhy, Lakshmi Charon, 410–11 Page, Irvine, 187 paleopathology, 42 palliative care, 223–26, 231, 307 drug trials for, 226 pancreas, 154, 414 pancreatic cancer, 154, 158, 450, 451, 465 Panel of Consultants, 184, 188 Panzer, Fred, 270 Papanicolaou, George, 286–90, 291, 384–85, 386, 401 Papanicolaou, Maria, 287 papillomavirus, 174, 349n, 381n Pap smears, 228, 286, 287–90, 296, 303, 331, 381, 385, 401 Paré, Ambroise, 49 Paris, University of, 51 Park, Roswell, 24, 45 Parliament cigarettes, 269 Pasteur, Louis, 57 pathology, pathologists, 11–12, 14 Hodgkin’s approach to, 156–57 Patterson, James, 183 PCP (Pneumocystis carinii), 165, 315–16 Pearson, Egon, 197–98 pectoralis major, 64–65 pectoralis minor, 64 pellagra, 110 penicillin, 21–22, 122, 129, 465–66 Penicillium, 122 Pepper, Claude, 26n peptic ulcers, 281–84 Perkin, William, 81–82, 83 pernicious anemia, 27–28, 31 Peru, 42–43 pesticides, 456–57 Peters, Vera, 159–60 Peters, William, 311–15, 319–20, 321, 325, 326, 329 Peto, Richard, 241, 249, 273–74, 462 pharmaceutical industry, 426 see also specific companies Philadelphia chromosome, 365, 430–31 Philip Morris, 251, 269–71, 273 phlegm, 48 phosphorylation, 358–59, 361, 380, 418, 431–32 Piccolo, Brian, 181 Pim, Isabella, 58 Pinkel, Donald, 123, 167–68, 170, 178 pitchblende, 74 pituitary cells, 414 placebos, in randomized trials, 131–32, 319 placenta, 135, 219 platelets, 18 Plato, 370 Pneumocystis carinii (PCP), 165, 315–16 pneumonectomy, 242 pneumonia, 45 PCP, 165, 315–16 Poet Physicians, 60 polio, 22, 229, 342, 466 national campaign against, 93–94, 175 Popper, Karl, 370 population, U.S., aging of, 230 Postmortem Examination, The (Farber), 19 Pott, Percivall, 173, 237–39, 241, 276, 447 precancer, 286, 306, 455 Auerbach’s research on, 258–59, 284, 289 prednisone, 127, 140, 143, 149 see also VAMP regimen Premarin, 213 preventive medicine, 281 epidemiology and, 290 see also cancer prevention procarbazine, 162, 164 product-liability lawsuits, 269–73, 401 progesterone, 456 “Progress Against Cancer?”

 

pages: 623 words: 448,848

Food Allergy: Adverse Reactions to Foods and Food Additives by Dean D. Metcalfe

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Albert Einstein, bioinformatics, epigenetics, impulse control, life extension, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, pattern recognition, phenotype, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, statistical model, stem cell

Maternal and/or infant elimination diets Studies attempting to prevent CM and egg allergies by maternal CM and egg avoidance during late pregnancy have failed to show a reduction in food allergy, any other atopic disorder, or sensitization from birth through age 5 years. Additionally, maternal weight gain during pregnancy was negatively affected by these dietary restrictions. A recent Cochrane meta-analysis [51] confirmed the above findings, and the authors concluded that the prescription of an antigen avoidance diet to a high-risk woman during pregnancy is unlikely to substantially reduce the child’s risk of atopic diseases, and such a diet may adversely affect maternal or fetal nutrition, or both. Another recent review of this issue by Muraro et al. [52] stated that there is no conclusive evidence for a protective effect of a maternal exclusion diet during pregnancy.

Breast-feeding For quite some time, it has been suggested that the presence of food antigens in breast milk might sensitize an infant if the mother does not avoid these foods in her diet during lactation. However, results of studies during the 1980s and 1990s examining this hypothesis have been contradictory. These contradictory studies, along with consideration of many others, led both a Cochrane analysis [51] and a recent meta-analysis [52] to conclude that while the prescription of an antigen avoidance diet to high-risk women during lactation may reduce the child’s risk of developing AD, there is insufficient conclusive evidence to show a preventative effect of maternal diet during lactation on atopic disease in childhood. Furthermore, one cannot state for certain whether food antigens in breast milk will induce allergy or be immunoprotective in any given recipient [53].

Some trends can be observed and conclusions drawn from a review of the literature on the effects of human milk and breast-feeding on AD and food allergy. Of the many studies regarding the association between breast-feeding and AD, some have shown a protective effect [54,55], whereas others have shown a lack 114 Chapter 9 of association [56], and some have even shown a positive association [57]. To assist in sorting out the discrepancies in the above studies, Gdalevich et al. [58] performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies in developed countries that compared breast-feeding with CM formula feeding on the development of AD. Statistical analysis revealed a significant overall protective effect of breastfeeding for 3 months on AD, with an OR of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.52–0.88) in the cohort as a whole. The effect was even stronger in children with a family history of atopy (OR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.41–0.92).

 

pages: 412 words: 115,266

The Moral Landscape: How Science Can Determine Human Values by Sam Harris

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Albert Einstein, banking crisis, cognitive bias, endowment effect, energy security, experimental subject, framing effect, hindsight bias, impulse control, John Nash: game theory, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, out of africa, pattern recognition, placebo effect, Ponzi scheme, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, risk tolerance, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, theory of mind, ultimatum game, World Values Survey

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Northoff, G., Heinzel, A., Bermpohl, F., Niese, R., Pfennig, A., Pascual-Leone, A., et al. (2004). Reciprocal modulation and attenuation in the prefrontal cortex: An fMRI study on emotional-cognitive interaction. Hum Brain Mapp, 21 (3), 202–212. Northoff, G., Heinzel, A., de Greck, M., Bermpohl, F., Dobrowolny, H., & Panksepp, J. (2006). Self-referential processing in our brain—a meta-analysis of imaging studies on the self. Neuroimage, 31 (1), 440–457. Nowak, M. A., & Sigmund, K. (2005). Evolution of indirect reciprocity. Nature, 437 (7063), 1291–1298. Nozick, R. (1974). Anarchy, state, and utopia. New York: Basic Books. Nunez, J. M., Casey, B. J., Egner, T., Hare, T., & Hirsch, J. (2005). Intentional false responding shares neural substrates with response conflict and cognitive control.

, & West, R. F. (2000). Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 645–726. Stark, R. (2001). One true God: Historical consequences of monotheism. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Steele, J. D., & Lawrie, S. M. (2004). Segregation of cognitive and emotional function in the prefrontal cortex: A stereotactic meta-analysis. Neuroimage, 21 (3), 868–875. Stenger, V. A. (2009). The new atheism: Taking a stand for science and reason. New York: Prometheus Books. Stewart, P. (2008, May 29). Vatican says it will excommunicate women priests. Reuters. Stoller, S. E., & Wolpe, P. R. (2007). Emerging neurotechnologies for lie detection and the Fifth Amendment. American Journal of Law & Medicine, 33, 359–375. Stone, M.

 

pages: 561 words: 120,899

The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

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bioinformatics, British Empire, Claude Shannon: information theory, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, double helix, Edmond Halley, Fellow of the Royal Society, full text search, Henri Poincaré, Isaac Newton, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, linear programming, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nate Silver, p-value, placebo effect, prediction markets, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, Ronald Reagan, speech recognition, statistical model, stochastic process, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, traveling salesman, Turing machine, Turing test, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War

As part of the government’s post-Sputnik push to teach students at every level about probability, Mosteller wrote two textbooks about frequentism and Bayes’ rule for high school students. In 1961 he taught probability and statistics on NBC’s early-morning Continental Classroom series; his lectures were viewed by more than a million people and taken for credit by 75,000. In medical research Mosteller pioneered meta-analysis and strongly advocated randomized clinical trials, fair tests of medical treatments, and data-based medicine. He was one of the first to conduct large-scale studies of placebo effects, evaluations of many medical centers, collaborations between physicians and statisticians, and the use of large, mainframe computers. How did Mosteller juggle a massive Bayesian analysis on top of his other work?

., 95 McCarthy, Joseph, 85, 87 McCullagh, Peter, 169 MCMC, 224–6, 232. See also Markov chains Monte Carlo simulation McNamara, Robert, 194 means, 130–32 medical devices, 228–29 medicine: cancer, x, 108–9, 110–14, 215–16, 227–28, 235, 255–57 diagnosis in, 135, 226–29, 255–57 heart attacks, x, 114–16 strokes, 226–27, 244 treatment in, 116, 235 X-rays, 53 Mercer, Robert L., 237–38, 245–47 Meshenberg, M. P., 101 meta-analysis, 215–16 metric system, 29 Metropolis, Nicholas, 222–23, 224 Michie, Donald, 81, 82 Microsoft, 242–43 military: asteroids and, 209 in Cold War, generally, 164–65, 173–75, 215 equal probabilities and, 38, 73 of France, 29, 38–40 image analysis and, 240, 241 inverse probability and, 38 mathematics and, 97 nuclear weapons and, 119–28, 182–95 robotics and, 240 of Russia, 72–73 satellites and, 209 statistics and, 97 submarines and, 194–203, 206–8 translation and, 247 weapons systems and, 241.

 

pages: 390 words: 115,769

Healthy at 100: The Scientifically Proven Secrets of the World's Healthiest and Longest-Lived Peoples by John Robbins

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clean water, collective bargaining, Community Supported Agriculture, Donald Trump, happiness index / gross national happiness, illegal immigration, indoor plumbing, land reform, life extension, Maui Hawaii, meta analysis, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trial, Silicon Valley, telemarketer

Here is a table showing the percentage of nutrients lost when whole wheat flour is refined into white flour: Protein: 25 percent lost Fiber: 95 percent lost Calcium: 56 percent lost Copper: 62 percent lost Iron: 84 percent lost Manganese: 82 percent lost Phosphorus: 69 percent lost Potassium: 74 percent lost Selenium: 52 percent lost Zinc: 76 percent lost Vitamin B1: 73 percent lost Vitamin B2: 81 percent lost Vitamin B3: 80 percent lost Vitamin B5: 56 percent lost Vitamin B6: 87 percent lost Folate: 59 percent lost Vitamin E: 95 percent lost Many people think that when white flour is “enriched” with added vitamins, the nutritional value is restored. But this is far from true. Of the twenty-five nutrients that are removed when whole wheat flour is milled into white flour, only five nutrients are chemically replaced when the white flour is enriched. The importance of whole grains in cancer prevention was vividly illustrated in a 2001 report published in the Journal of the American Dietetic Association.3 The authors conducted a “meta-analysis,” reviewing the entire body of available scientific literature on whole grains and cancer risk. Here’s what they found: Of forty-five studies on whole grains and cancer, forty-three showed whole-grain intake to provide significant protection from several cancers. Specifically, a protective association was seen in 9 of 10 mentions of studies on colorectal cancers and polyps, 7 of 7 mentions of gastric cancer, 6 of 6 mentions of other digestive tract cancers, 7 of 7 mentions of hormone-related cancers (breast, prostate, ovarian, and uterine cancer), 4 of 4 mentions of pancreatic cancer, and 10 of 11 mentions of other cancers.

Bradley J. Willcox, D. Craig Willcox, and Makoto Suzuki, The Okinawa Program: Learn the Secrets to Health and Longevity (Three Rivers Press, 2001), pp. 43, 71. 2. Ibid. p. 69. 3. Joanne Slavin et al., “The Role of Whole Grains in Disease Prevention,” Journal of the American Dietetic Association 2001, 101:780–85. See also D. R. Jacobs et al., “Whole-grain intake and cancer: An expanded review and meta-analysis,” Nutrition and Cancer 1998, 30:85–96. 4. D. R. Jacobs et al., “Is whole-grain intake associated with reduced total and cause-specific death rates in older women? The Iowa Women’s Health Study,” American Journal of Public Health 1999, 89(3):322–29. See also S. Liu, “Intake of refined carbohydrates and whole grain foods in relation to risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and coronary heart disease,” Journal of the American College of Nutrition 2002, 21(4):298–306; D.

 

pages: 565 words: 151,129

The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism by Jeremy Rifkin

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3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, autonomous vehicles, back-to-the-land, big-box store, bioinformatics, bitcoin, business process, Chris Urmson, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, Community Supported Agriculture, computer vision, crowdsourcing, demographic transition, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, Frederick Winslow Taylor, global supply chain, global village, Hacker Ethic, industrial robot, informal economy, intermodal, Internet of things, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, labour mobility, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, new economy, New Urbanism, nuclear winter, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, phenotype, planetary scale, price discrimination, profit motive, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Stallman, risk/return, Ronald Coase, search inside the book, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, social web, software as a service, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, the built environment, The Nature of the Firm, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, transaction costs, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, WikiLeaks, working poor, Zipcar

Psychologists, sociologists, political scientists, and anthropologists are publishing reports and studies that are deeply at odds with one another. A massive study of 14,000 college students conducted between 1979 and 2009 by the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan concluded that “college kids today are about 40 percent lower in empathy than their counterparts of 20 or 30 years ago, as measured by standard tests of this personality trait.”20 Sarah Konrath, a University of Michigan researcher who conducted the meta-analysis study, which combined the results of 72 studies of American college students over the 30-year period, says that today’s college students are less likely to agree with statements such as, “I sometimes tried to understand my friends better by imagining how things look from their perspective” and “I often have tender, concerned feelings for people less fortunate than me.”21 Other studies on the Millennial Generation, however, appear to show the opposite trend.

Schor, Born to Buy: The Commercialized Child and the New Consumer Culture (New York: Scribner, 2004), 31. 19. Ibid., 37. 20. Diane Swanbrow, “Empathy: College Students Don’t Have as Much as They Used To,” University of Michigan News Service, May 27, 2010, http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/7724 (accessed April 2, 2013). 21. Swanbrow, “Empathy”; Sara H. Konrath, Edward H. O’Brien, and Courtney Hsing, “Changes in Dispositional Empathy in American College Students over Time: A Meta-Analysis,” Personality and Social Psychology Review 5(2) (2011): 180–81, http://www.sitemaker.umich.edu/eob/files /konrathetal2011.pdf (accessed April 2, 2013). 22. Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais, Millenial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics (Piscataway, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2008), 5. 23. Kelsey Sheehy, “10 Colleges Where the Most Students Study Abroad,” U.S.

 

pages: 510 words: 120,048

Who Owns the Future? by Jaron Lanier

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3D printing, 4chan, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Airbnb, augmented reality, automated trading system, barriers to entry, bitcoin, book scanning, Burning Man, call centre, carbon footprint, cloud computing, computer age, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, David Graeber, delayed gratification, digital Maoism, en.wikipedia.org, facts on the ground, Filter Bubble, financial deregulation, Fractional reserve banking, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Akerlof, global supply chain, global village, Haight Ashbury, hive mind, if you build it, they will come, income inequality, informal economy, invisible hand, Jacquard loom, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, job automation, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, Kodak vs Instagram, life extension, Long Term Capital Management, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, mutually assured destruction, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, obamacare, packet switching, Peter Thiel, place-making, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, pre–internet, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reversible computing, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart meter, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Stewart Brand, Ted Nelson, The Market for Lemons, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, WikiLeaks

To what degree must replication require the gathering of different, but similar big data, and not just the reuse of the same data with different algorithms? • What is publication? Is it just a description of the code used? The code itself? The code in some standardized form or framework that makes it reusable and tweakable? • Must analysis be performed in a way that anticipates standard practices of meta-analysis? • What documentation of the chain of custody of data must be standardized? • Must there be new practices established, analogous to double-blind tests or placebos, that help prevent big data scientists from fooling themselves? Should there be multiple groups developing code to analyze big data that remain completely insulated from each other in order to arrive at independent results? Before long, all these questions will be answered, but for now, practices are still in flux.

., 296, 298 lawyers, 98–99, 100, 136, 184, 318–19 leadership, 341–51 legacy prices, 272–75, 288 legal issues, 49, 63, 74–82, 98–99, 100, 104–5, 108, 136, 184, 204, 206, 318–19 Lehman Brothers, 188 lemonade stands, 79–82 “lemons,” 118–19 Lennon, John, 211, 213 levees, economic, 43–45, 46, 47, 48, 49–50, 52, 92, 94, 96, 98, 108, 171, 176n, 224–25, 239–43, 253–54, 263, 345 leveraged mortgages, 49–50, 61, 227, 245, 289n, 296 liberal arts, 97 liberalism, 135–36, 148, 152, 202, 204, 208, 235, 236, 251, 253, 256, 265, 293, 350 libertarianism, 14, 34, 80, 202, 208, 210, 262, 321 liberty, 13–15, 32–33, 90–92, 277–78, 336 licensing agreements, 79–82 “Lifestreams” (Gelernter), 313 Lights in the Tunnel, The (Ford), 56n Linux, 206, 253, 291, 344 litigation, 98–99, 100, 104–5, 108, 184 loans, 32–33, 42, 43, 74, 151–52, 306 local advantages, 64, 94–95, 143–44, 153–56, 173, 203, 280 Local/Global Flip, 153–56, 173, 280 locked-in software, 172–73, 182, 273–74 logical copies, 223 Long-Term Capital Management, 49, 74–75 looms, 22, 23n, 24 loopholes, tax, 77 lotteries, 338–39 lucid dreaming, 162 Luddites, 135, 136 lyres, 22, 23n, 24 machines, 19–20, 86, 92, 123, 129–30, 158, 261, 309–11, 328 see also computers “Machine Stops, The” (Forster), 129–30, 261, 328 machine translations, 19–20 machine vision, 309–11 McMillen, Keith, 117 magic, 110, 115, 151, 178, 216, 338 Malthus, Thomas, 132, 134 Malthusian humor, 125, 127, 132–33 management, 49 manufacturing sector, 49, 85–89, 99, 123, 154, 343 market economies, see economies, market marketing, 211–13, 266–67, 306, 346 “Markets for Lemons” problem, 118–19 Markoff, John, 213 marriage, 167–68, 274–75, 286 Marxism, 15, 22, 37–38, 48, 136–37, 262 as humor, 126 mash-ups, 191, 221, 224–26, 259 Maslow, Abraham, 260, 315 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 75, 93, 94, 96–97, 157–58, 184 mass media, 7, 66, 86, 109, 120, 135, 136, 185–86, 191, 216, 267 material extinction, 125 materialism, 125n, 195 mathematics, 11, 20, 40–41, 70, 71–72, 75–78, 116, 148, 155, 161, 189n, 273n see also statistics Matrix, The, 130, 137, 155 Maxwell, James Clerk, 55 Maxwell’s Demon, 55–56 mechanicals, 49, 51n Mechanical Turk, 177–78, 185, 187, 349 Medicaid, 99 medicine, 11–13, 17, 18, 54, 66–67, 97–106, 131, 132–33, 134, 150, 157–58, 325, 346, 363, 366–67 Meetings with Remarkable Men (Gurdjieff), 215 mega-dossiers, 60 memes, 124 Memex, 221n memories, 131, 312–13, 314 meta-analysis, 112 metaphysics, 12, 127, 139, 193–95 Metcalf’s Law, 169n, 350 Mexico City, 159–62 microfilm, 221n microorganisms, 162 micropayments, 20, 226, 274–75, 286–87, 317, 337–38, 365 Microsoft, 19, 89, 265 Middle Ages, 190 middle class, 2, 3, 9, 11, 16–17, 37–38, 40, 42–45, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 60, 74, 79, 91, 92, 95, 98, 171, 205, 208, 210, 224–25, 239–43, 246, 253–54, 259, 262, 263, 280, 291–94, 331, 341n, 344, 345, 347, 354 milling machines, 86 mind reading, 111 Minority Report, 130, 310 Minsky, Marvin, 94, 157–58, 217, 326, 330–31 mission statements, 154–55 Mixed (Augmented) Reality, 312–13, 314, 315 mobile phones, 34n, 39, 85, 87, 162, 172, 182n, 192, 229, 269n, 273, 314, 315, 331 models, economic, 40–41, 148–52, 153, 155–56 modernity, 123–40, 193–94, 255 molds, 86 monetization, 172, 176n, 185, 186, 207, 210, 241–43, 255–56, 258, 260–61, 263, 298, 331, 338, 344–45 money, 3, 21, 29–35, 86, 108, 124, 148, 152, 154, 155, 158, 172, 185, 241–43, 278–79, 284–85, 289, 364 monocultures, 94 monopolies, 60, 65–66, 169–74, 181–82, 187–88, 190, 202, 326, 350 Moondust, 362n Moore’s Law, 9–18, 20, 153, 274–75, 288 morality, 29–34, 35, 42, 50–52, 54, 71–74, 188, 194–95, 252–64, 335–36 Morlocks, 137 morning-after pill, 104 morphing, 162 mortality, 193, 218, 253, 263–64, 325–31, 367 mortgages, 33, 46, 49–52, 61, 78, 95–96, 99, 224, 227, 239, 245, 255, 274n, 289n, 296, 300 motivation, 7–18, 85–86, 97–98, 216 motivational speakers, 216 movies, 111–12, 130, 137, 165, 192, 193, 204, 206, 256, 261–62, 277–78, 310 Mozart, Wolfgang Amadeus, 23n MRI, 111n music industry, 11, 18, 22, 23–24, 42, 47–51, 54, 61, 66, 74, 78, 86, 88, 89, 92, 94, 95–96, 97, 129, 132, 134–35, 154, 157, 159–62, 186–87, 192, 206–7, 224, 227, 239, 253, 266–67, 281, 318, 347, 353, 354, 355, 357 Myspace, 180 Nancarrow, Conlon, 159–62 Nancarrow, Yoko, 161 nanopayments, 20, 226, 274–75, 286–87, 317, 337–38, 365 nanorobots, 11, 12, 17 nanotechnology, 11, 12, 17, 87, 162 Napster, 92 narcissism, 153–56, 188, 201 narratives, 165–66, 199 National Security Agency (NSA), 199–200 natural medicine, 131 Nelson, Ted, 128, 221, 228, 245, 349–50 Nelsonian systems, 221–30, 335 Nelson’s humor, 128 Netflix, 192, 223 “net neutrality,” 172 networked cameras, 309–11, 319 networks, see digital networks neutrinos, 110n New Age, 211–17 Newmark, Craig, 177n New Mexico, 159, 203 newspapers, 109, 135, 177n, 225, 284, 285n New York, N.Y., 75, 91, 266–67 New York Times, 109 Nobel Prize, 40, 118, 143n nodes, network, 156, 227, 230, 241–43, 350 “no free lunch” principle, 55–56, 59–60 nondeterministic music, 23n nonlinear solutions, 149–50 nonprofit share sites, 59n, 94–95 nostalgia, 129–32 NRO, 199–200 nuclear power, 133 nuclear weapons, 127, 296 nursing, 97–100, 123, 296n nursing homes, 97–100, 269 Obama, Barack, 79, 100 “Obamacare,” 100n obsolescence, 89, 95 oil resources, 43, 133 online stores, 171 Ono, Yoko, 212 ontologies, 124n, 196 open-source applications, 206, 207, 272, 310–11 optical illusions, 121 optimism, 32–35, 45, 130, 138–40, 218, 230n, 295 optimization, 144–47, 148, 153, 154–55, 167, 202, 203 Oracle, 265 Orbitz, 63, 64, 65 organ donors, 190, 191 ouroboros, 154 outcomes, economic, 40–41, 144–45 outsourcing, 177–78, 185 Owens, Buck, 256 packet switching, 228–29 Palmer, Amanda, 186–87 Pandora, 192 panopticons, 308 papacy, 190 paper money, 34n parallel computers, 147–48, 149, 151 paranoia, 309 Parrish, Maxfield, 214 particle interactions, 196 party machines, 202 Pascal, Blaise, 132, 139 Pascal’s Wager, 139 passwords, 307, 309 “past-oriented money,” 29–31, 35, 284–85 patterns, information, 178, 183, 184, 188–89 Paul, Ron, 33n Pauli exclusion principle, 181, 202 PayPal, 60, 93, 326 peasants, 565 pensions, 95, 99 Perestroika (Kushner), 165 “perfect investments,” 59–67, 77–78 performances, musical, 47–48, 51, 186–87, 253 perpetual motion, 55 Persian Gulf, 86 personal computers (PCs), 158, 182n, 214, 223, 229 personal information systems, 110, 312–16, 317 Pfizer, 265 pharmaceuticals industry, 66–67, 100–106, 123, 136, 203 philanthropy, 117 photography, 53, 89n, 92, 94, 309–11, 318, 319, 321 photo-sharing services, 53 physical trades, 292 physicians, 66–67 physics, 88, 153n, 167n Picasso, Pablo, 108 Pinterest, 180–81, 183 Pirate Party, 49, 199, 206, 226, 253, 284, 318 placebos, 112 placement fees, 184 player pianos, 160–61 plutocracy, 48, 291–94, 355 police, 246, 310, 311, 319–21, 335 politics, 13–18, 21, 22–25, 47–48, 85, 122, 124–26, 128, 134–37, 149–51, 155, 167, 199–234, 295–96, 342 see also conservatism; liberalism; libertarianism Ponzi schemes, 48 Popper, Karl, 189n popular culture, 111–12, 130, 137–38, 139, 159 “populating the stack,” 273 population, 17, 34n, 86, 97–100, 123, 125, 132, 133, 269, 296n, 325–26, 346 poverty, 37–38, 42, 44, 53–54, 93–94, 137, 148, 167, 190, 194, 253, 256, 263, 290, 291–92 power, personal, 13–15, 53, 60, 62–63, 86, 114, 116, 120, 122, 158, 166, 172–73, 175, 190, 199, 204, 207, 208, 278–79, 290, 291, 302–3, 308–9, 314, 319, 326, 344, 360 Presley, Elvis, 211 Priceline, 65 pricing strategies, 1–2, 43, 60–66, 72–74, 145, 147–48, 158, 169–74, 226, 261, 272–75, 289, 317–24, 331, 337–38 printers, 90, 99, 154, 162, 212, 269, 310–11, 316, 331, 347, 348, 349 privacy, 1–2, 11, 13–15, 25, 50–51, 64, 99, 108–9, 114–15, 120–21, 152, 177n, 199–200, 201, 204, 206–7, 234–35, 246, 272, 291, 305, 309–13, 314, 315–16, 317, 319–24 privacy rights, 13–15, 25, 204, 305, 312–13, 314, 315–16, 321–22 product design and development, 85–89, 117–20, 128, 136–37, 145, 154, 236 productivity, 7, 56–57, 134–35 profit margins, 59n, 71–72, 76–78, 94–95, 116, 177n, 178, 179, 207, 258, 274–75, 321–22 progress, 9–18, 20, 21, 37, 43, 48, 57, 88, 98, 123, 124–40, 130–37, 256–57, 267, 325–31, 341–42 promotions, 62 property values, 52 proprietary hardware, 172 provenance, 245–46, 247, 338 pseudo-asceticism, 211–12 public libraries, 293 public roads, 79–80 publishers, 62n, 92, 182, 277–78, 281, 347, 352–60 punishing vs. rewarding network effects, 169–74, 182, 183 quants, 75–76 quantum field theory, 167n, 195 QuNeo, 117, 118, 119 Rabois, Keith, 185 “race to the bottom,” 178 radiant risk, 61–63, 118–19, 120, 156, 183–84 Ragnarok, 30 railroads, 43, 172 Rand, Ayn, 167, 204 randomness, 143 rationality, 144 Reagan, Ronald, 149 real estate, 33, 46, 49–52, 61, 78, 95–96, 99, 193, 224, 227, 239, 245, 255, 274n, 289n, 296, 298, 300, 301 reality, 55–56, 59–60, 124n, 127–28, 154–56, 161, 165–68, 194–95, 203–4, 216–17, 295–303, 364–65 see also Virtual Reality (VR) reason, 195–96 recessions, economic, 31, 54, 60, 76–77, 79, 151–52, 167, 204, 311, 336–37 record labels, 347 recycling, 88, 89 Reddit, 118n, 186, 254 reductionism, 184 regulation, economic, 37–38, 44, 45–46, 49–50, 54, 56, 69–70, 77–78, 266n, 274, 299–300, 311, 321–22, 350–51 relativity theory, 167n religion, 124–25, 126, 131, 139, 190, 193–95, 211–17, 293, 300n, 326 remote computers, 11–12 rents, 144 Republican Party, 79, 202 research and development, 40–45, 85–89, 117–20, 128, 136–37, 145, 154, 215, 229–30, 236 retail sector, 69, 70–74, 95–96, 169–74, 272, 349–51, 355–56 retirement, 49, 150 revenue growth plans, 173n revenues, 149, 149, 150, 151, 173n, 225, 234–35, 242, 347–48 reversible computers, 143n revolutions, 199, 291, 331 rhythm, 159–62 Rich Dad, Poor Dad (Kiyosaki), 46 risk, 54, 55, 57, 59–63, 71–72, 85, 117, 118–19, 120, 156, 170–71, 179, 183–84, 188, 242, 277–81, 284, 337, 350 externalization of, 59n, 117, 277–81 risk aversion, 188 risk pools, 277–81, 284 risk radiation, 61–63, 118–19, 120, 156, 183–84 robo call centers, 177n robotic cars, 90–92 robotics, robots, 11, 12, 17, 23, 42, 55, 85–86, 90–92, 97–100, 111, 129, 135–36, 155, 157, 162, 260, 261, 269, 296n, 342, 359–60 Roman Empire, 24–25 root nodes, 241 Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, 129 Rousseau humor, 126, 129, 130–31 routers, 171–72 royalties, 47, 240, 254, 263–64, 323, 338 Rubin, Edgar, 121 rupture, 66–67 salaries, 10, 46–47, 50–54, 152, 178, 270–71, 287–88, 291–94, 338–39, 365 sampling, 71–72, 191, 221, 224–26, 259 San Francisco, University of, 190 satellites, 110 savings, 49, 72–74 scalable solutions, 47 scams, 119–21, 186, 275n, 287–88, 299–300 scanned books, 192, 193 SceneTap, 108n Schmidt, Eric, 305n, 352 Schwartz, Peter, 214 science fiction, 18, 126–27, 136, 137–38, 139, 193, 230n, 309, 356n search engines, 51, 60, 70, 81, 120, 191, 267, 289, 293 Second Life, 270, 343 Secret, The (Byrne), 216 securitization, 76–78, 99, 289n security, 14–15, 175, 239–40, 305–8, 345 self-actualization, 211–17 self-driving vehicles, 90–92, 98, 311, 343, 367 servants, 22 servers, 12n, 15, 31, 53–57, 71–72, 95–96, 143–44, 171, 180, 183, 206, 245, 358 see also Siren Servers “Sexy Sadie,” 213 Shakur, Tupac, 329 Shelley, Mary, 327 Short History of Progress, A (Wright), 132 “shrinking markets,” 66–67 shuttles, 22, 23n, 24 signal-processing algorithms, 76–78, 148 silicon chips, 10, 86–87 Silicon Valley, 12, 13, 14, 21, 34n, 56, 59, 60, 66–67, 70, 71, 75–76, 80, 93, 96–97, 100, 102, 108n, 125n, 132, 136, 154, 157, 162, 170, 179–89, 192, 193, 200, 207, 210, 211–18, 228, 230, 233, 258, 275n, 294, 299–300, 325–31, 345, 349, 352, 354–58 singularity, 22–25, 125, 215, 217, 327–28, 366, 367 Singularity University, 193, 325, 327–28 Sirenic Age, 66n, 354 Siren Servers, 53–57, 59, 61–64, 65, 66n, 69–78, 82, 91–99, 114–19, 143–48, 154–56, 166–89, 191, 200, 201, 203, 210n, 216, 235, 246–50, 258, 259, 269, 271, 272, 280, 285, 289, 293–94, 298, 301, 302–3, 307–10, 314–23, 326, 336–51, 354, 365, 366 Siri, 95 skilled labor, 99–100 Skout, 280n Skype, 95, 129 slavery, 22, 23, 33n Sleeper, 130 small businesses, 173 smartphones, 34n, 39, 162, 172, 192, 269n, 273 Smith, Adam, 121, 126 Smolin, Lee, 148n social contract, 20, 49, 247, 284, 288, 335, 336 social engineering, 112–13, 190–91 socialism, 14, 128, 254, 257, 341n social mobility, 66, 97, 292–94 social networks, 18, 51, 56, 60, 70, 81, 89, 107–9, 113, 114, 129, 167–68, 172–73, 179, 180, 190, 199, 200–201, 202, 204, 227, 241, 242–43, 259, 267, 269n, 274–75, 280n, 286, 307–8, 317, 336, 337, 343, 349, 358, 365–66 see also Facebook social safety nets, 10, 44, 54, 202, 251, 293 Social Security, 251, 345 software, 7, 9, 11, 14, 17, 68, 86, 99, 100–101, 128, 129, 147, 154, 155, 165, 172–73, 177–78, 182, 192, 234, 236, 241–42, 258, 262, 273–74, 283, 331, 347, 357 software-mediated technology, 7, 11, 14, 86, 100–101, 165, 234, 236, 258, 347 South Korea, 133 Soviet Union, 70 “space elevator pitch,” 233, 342, 361 space travel, 233, 266 Spain, 159–60 spam, 178, 275n spending levels, 287–88 spirituality, 126, 211–17, 325–31, 364 spreadsheet programs, 230 “spy data tax,” 234–35 Square, 185 Stalin, Joseph, 125n Stanford Research Institute (SRI), 215 Stanford University, 60, 75, 90, 95, 97, 101, 102, 103, 162, 325 Starr, Ringo, 256 Star Trek, 138, 139, 230n startup companies, 39, 60, 69, 93–94, 108n, 124n, 136, 179–89, 265, 274n, 279–80, 309–10, 326, 341, 343–45, 348, 352, 355 starvation, 123 Star Wars, 137 star (winner-take-all) system, 38–43, 50, 54–55, 204, 243, 256–57, 263, 329–30 statistics, 11, 20, 71–72, 75–78, 90–91, 93, 110n, 114–15, 186, 192 “stickiness,” 170, 171 stimulus, economic, 151–52 stoplights, 90 Strangelove humor, 127 student debt, 92, 95 “Study 27,” 160 “Study 36,” 160 Sumer, 29 supergoop, 85–89 supernatural phenomena, 55, 124–25, 127, 132, 192, 194–95, 300 supply chain, 70–72, 174, 187 Supreme Court, U.S., 104–5 surgery, 11–13, 17, 18, 98, 157–58, 363 surveillance, 1–2, 11, 14, 50–51, 64, 71–72, 99, 108–9, 114–15, 120–21, 152, 177n, 199–200, 201, 206–7, 234–35, 246, 272, 291, 305, 309–11, 315, 316, 317, 319–24 Surviving Progress, 132 sustainable economies, 235–37, 285–87 Sutherland, Ivan, 221 swarms, 99, 109 synthesizers, 160 synthetic biology, 162 tablets, 85, 86, 87, 88, 113, 162, 229 Tahrir Square, 95 Tamagotchis, 98 target ads, 170 taxation, 44, 45, 49, 52, 60, 74–75, 77, 82, 149, 149, 150, 151, 202, 210, 234–35, 263, 273, 289–90 taxis, 44, 91–92, 239, 240, 266–67, 269, 273, 311 Teamsters, 91 TechCrunch, 189 tech fixes, 295–96 technical schools, 96–97 technologists (“techies”), 9–10, 15–16, 45, 47–48, 66–67, 88, 122, 124, 131–32, 134, 139–40, 157–62, 165–66, 178, 193–94, 295–98, 307, 309, 325–31, 341, 342, 356n technology: author’s experience in, 47–48, 62n, 69–72, 93–94, 114, 130, 131–32, 153, 158–62, 178, 206–7, 228, 265, 266–67, 309–10, 325, 328, 343, 352–53, 362n, 364, 365n, 366 bio-, 11–13, 17, 18, 109–10, 162, 330–31 chaos and, 165–66, 273n, 331 collusion in, 65–66, 72, 169–74, 255, 350–51 complexity of, 53–54 costs of, 8, 18, 72–74, 87n, 136–37, 170–71, 176–77, 184–85 creepiness of, 305–24 cultural impact of, 8–9, 21, 23–25, 53, 130, 135–40 development and emergence of, 7–18, 21, 53–54, 60–61, 66–67, 85–86, 87, 97–98, 129–38, 157–58, 182, 188–90, 193–96, 217 digital, 2–3, 7–8, 15–16, 18, 31, 40, 43, 50–51, 132, 208 economic impact of, 1–3, 15–18, 29–30, 37, 40, 53–54, 60–66, 71–74, 79–110, 124, 134–37, 161, 162, 169–77, 181–82, 183, 184–85, 218, 254, 277–78, 298, 335–39, 341–51, 357–58 educational, 92–97 efficiency of, 90, 118, 191 employment in, 56–57, 60, 71–74, 79, 123, 135, 178 engineering for, 113–14, 123–24, 192, 194, 217, 218, 326 essential vs. worthless, 11–12 failure of, 188–89 fear of (technophobia), 129–32, 134–38 freedom as issue in, 32–33, 90–92, 277–78, 336 government influence in, 158, 199, 205–6, 234–35, 240, 246, 248–51, 307, 317, 341, 345–46, 350–51 human agency and, 8–21, 50–52, 85, 88, 91, 124–40, 144, 165–66, 175–78, 191–92, 193, 217, 253–64, 274–75, 283–85, 305–6, 328, 341–51, 358–60, 361, 362, 365–67 ideas for, 123, 124, 158, 188–89, 225, 245–46, 286–87, 299, 358–60 industrial, 49, 83, 85–89, 123, 132, 154, 343 information, 7, 32–35, 49, 66n, 71–72, 109, 110, 116, 120, 125n, 126, 135, 136, 254, 312–16, 317 investment in, 66, 181, 183, 184, 218, 277–78, 298, 348 limitations of, 157–62, 196, 222 monopolies for, 60, 65–66, 169–74, 181–82, 187–88, 190, 202, 326, 350 morality and, 50–51, 72, 73–74, 188, 194–95, 262, 335–36 motivation and, 7–18, 85–86, 97–98, 216 nano-, 11, 12, 17, 162 new vs. old, 20–21 obsolescence of, 89, 97 political impact of, 13–18, 22–25, 85, 122, 124–26, 128, 134–37, 199–234, 295–96, 342 progress in, 9–18, 20, 21, 37, 43, 48, 57, 88, 98, 123, 124–40, 130–37, 256–57, 267, 325–31, 341–42 resources for, 55–56, 157–58 rupture as concept in, 66–67 scams in, 119–21, 186, 275n, 287–88, 299–300 singularity of, 22–25, 125, 215, 217, 327–28, 366, 367 social impact of, 9–21, 124–40, 167n, 187, 280–81, 310–11 software-mediated, 7, 11, 14, 86, 100–101, 165, 234, 236, 258, 347 startup companies in, 39, 60, 69, 93–94, 108n, 124n, 136, 179–89, 265, 274n, 279–80, 309–10, 326, 341, 343–45, 348, 352, 355 utopian, 13–18, 21, 31, 37–38, 45–46, 96, 128, 130, 167, 205, 207, 265, 267, 270, 283, 290, 291, 308–9, 316 see also specific technologies technophobia, 129–32, 134–38 television, 86, 185–86, 191, 216, 267 temperature, 56, 145 Ten Commandments, 300n Terminator, The, 137 terrorism, 133, 200 Tesla, Nikola, 327 Texas, 203 text, 162, 352–60 textile industry, 22, 23n, 24, 135 theocracy, 194–95 Theocracy humor, 124–25 thermodynamics, 88, 143n Thiel, Peter, 60, 93, 326 thought experiments, 55, 139 thought schemas, 13 3D printers, 7, 85–89, 90, 99, 154, 162, 212, 269, 310–11, 316, 331, 347, 348, 349 Thrun, Sebastian, 94 Tibet, 214 Time Machine, The (Wells), 127, 137, 261, 331 topology, network, 241–43, 246 touchscreens, 86 tourism, 79 Toyota Prius, 302 tracking services, 109, 120–21, 122 trade, 29 traffic, 90–92, 314 “tragedy of the commons,” 66n Transformers, 98 translation services, 19–20, 182, 191, 195, 261, 262, 284, 338 transparency, 63–66, 74–78, 118, 176, 190–91, 205–6, 278, 291, 306–9, 316, 336 transportation, 79–80, 87, 90–92, 123, 258 travel agents, 64 Travelocity, 65 travel sites, 63, 64, 65, 181, 279–80 tree-shaped networks, 241–42, 243, 246 tribal dramas, 126 trickle-down effect, 148–49, 204 triumphalism, 128, 157–62 tropes (humors), 124–40, 157, 170, 230 trust, 32–34, 35, 42, 51–52 Turing, Alan, 127–28, 134 Turing’s humor, 127–28, 191–94 Turing Test, 330 Twitter, 128, 173n, 180, 182, 188, 199, 200n, 201, 204, 245, 258, 259, 349, 365n 2001: A Space Odyssey, 137 two-way links, 1–2, 227, 245, 289 underemployment, 257–58 unemployment, 7–8, 22, 79, 85–106, 117, 151–52, 234, 257–58, 321–22, 331, 343 “unintentional manipulation,” 144 United States, 25, 45, 54, 79–80, 86, 138, 199–204 universities, 92–97 upper class, 45, 48 used car market, 118–19 user interface, 362–63, 364 utopianism, 13–18, 21, 30, 31, 37–38, 45–46, 96, 128, 130, 167, 205, 207, 265, 267, 270, 283, 290, 291, 308–9, 316 value, economic, 21, 33–35, 52, 61, 64–67, 73n, 108, 283–90, 299–300, 321–22, 364 value, information, 1–3, 15–16, 20, 210, 235–43, 257–58, 259, 261–63, 271–75, 321–24, 358–60 Values, Attitudes, and Lifestyles (VALS), 215 variables, 149–50 vendors, 71–74 venture capital, 66, 181, 218, 277–78, 298, 348 videos, 60, 100, 162, 185–86, 204, 223, 225, 226, 239, 240, 242, 245, 277, 287, 329, 335–36, 349, 354, 356 Vietnam War, 353n vinyl records, 89 viral videos, 185–86 Virtual Reality (VR), 12, 47–48, 127, 129, 132, 158, 162, 214, 283–85, 312–13, 314, 315, 325, 343, 356, 362n viruses, 132–33 visibility, 184, 185–86, 234, 355 visual cognition, 111–12 VitaBop, 100–106, 284n vitamins, 100–106 Voice, The, 185–86 “voodoo economics,” 149 voting, 122, 202–4, 249 Wachowski, Lana, 165 Wall Street, 49, 70, 76–77, 181, 184, 234, 317, 331, 350 Wal-Mart, 69, 70–74, 89, 174, 187, 201 Warhol, Andy, 108 War of the Worlds, The (Wells), 137 water supplies, 17, 18 Watts, Alan, 211–12 Wave, 189 wealth: aggregate or concentration of, 9, 42–43, 53, 60, 61, 74–75, 96, 97, 108, 115, 148, 157–58, 166, 175, 201, 202, 208, 234, 278–79, 298, 305, 335, 355, 360 creation of, 32, 33–34, 46–47, 50–51, 57, 62–63, 79, 92, 96, 120, 148–49, 210, 241–43, 270–75, 291–94, 338–39, 349 inequalities and redistribution of, 20, 37–45, 65–66, 92, 97, 144, 254, 256–57, 274–75, 286–87, 290–94, 298, 299–300 see also income levels weather forecasting, 110, 120, 150 weaving, 22, 23n, 24 webcams, 99, 245 websites, 80, 170, 200, 201, 343 Wells, H.

 

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Influence: Science and Practice by Robert B. Cialdini

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Albert Einstein, attribution theory, bank run, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, desegregation, experimental subject, Mars Rover, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, Milgram experiment, Ralph Waldo Emerson, telemarketer, The Wisdom of Crowds

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The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom by Jonathan Haidt

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crack epidemic, delayed gratification, feminist movement, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, invisible hand, job satisfaction, Lao Tzu, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Peter Singer: altruism, placebo effect, prisoner's dilemma, Ralph Waldo Emerson, stem cell, Steven Pinker, telemarketer, the scientific method, ultimatum game, Walter Mischel

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The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth by Robin Hanson

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8-hour work day, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, brain emulation, business process, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, correlation does not imply causation, demographic transition, Erik Brynjolfsson, ethereum blockchain, experimental subject, fault tolerance, financial intermediation, Flynn Effect, hindsight bias, job automation, job satisfaction, Just-in-time delivery, lone genius, Machinery of Freedom by David Friedman, market design, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nash equilibrium, new economy, prediction markets, rent control, rent-seeking, reversible computing, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, smart contracts, statistical model, stem cell, Thomas Malthus, trade route, Turing test, Vernor Vinge

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“A Simple Version of the Henry George Theorem.” Finance India 17(2): 561–564. Ramscar, Michael, Peter Hendrix, Cyrus Shaoul, Petar Milin, and Harald Baayen. 2014. “The Myth of Cognitive Decline: Non-Linear Dynamics of Lifelong Learning.” Topics in Cognitive Science 6(1): 5–42. Randall, Jason, Frederick Oswald, and Margaret Beier. 2014. “Mind-Wandering, Cognition, and Performance: A Theory-Driven Meta-Analysis of Attention Regulation.” Psychological Bulletin 140(6): 1411–1431. Rao, Venkatesh. 2012. “Welcome to the Future Nauseous.” Ribbon Farm blog, May 9, http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2012/05/09/welcome-to-the-future-nauseous/. Rayneau-Kirkhope, Daniel, Yong Mao, and Robert Farr. 2012. “Ultralight Fractal Structures from Hollow Tubes.” Physics Review Letters 109(20): 204301. Regan, Pamela, Saloni Lakhanpal, and Carlos Anguiano. 2012.

 

pages: 184 words: 53,625

Future Perfect: The Case for Progress in a Networked Age by Steven Johnson

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airport security, algorithmic trading, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Sanders, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Cass Sunstein, cognitive dissonance, credit crunch, crowdsourcing, dark matter, Dava Sobel, David Brooks, future of journalism, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, HyperCard, Jane Jacobs, John Gruber, John Harrison: Longitude, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, lone genius, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, Nate Silver, Occupy movement, packet switching, Peter Thiel, planetary scale, pre–internet, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social graph, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Tim Cook: Apple, urban planning, WikiLeaks, working poor, X Prize

Sites such as Talking Points Memo and Politico did extensive direct reporting. Daily Kos provided in-depth surveys and field reports on state races that the Times would never have had the ink to cover. Individual bloggers such as Andrew Sullivan responded to each twist in the news cycle; The Huffington Post culled the most provocative opinion pieces from the rest of the blogosphere. The statistician Nate Silver at the website Five Thirty Eight did meta-analysis of polling that exceeded anything Bill Schneider dreamed of doing on CNN in 1992. When the banking crisis erupted in September 2008, I followed economist bloggers such as Brad DeLong to get their expert take on the candidates’ responses to the crisis. I watched the debates with a thousand virtual friends live-tweeting alongside me on the couch. All this was filtered and remixed through the extraordinary political satire of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, whom I watched via viral clips on the Web as much as I watched them on TV.

 

pages: 179 words: 43,441

The Fourth Industrial Revolution by Klaus Schwab

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3D printing, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, Baxter: Rethink Robotics, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, clean water, collaborative consumption, conceptual framework, continuous integration, crowdsourcing, disintermediation, distributed ledger, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, future of work, global value chain, Google Glasses, income inequality, Internet Archive, Internet of things, invention of the steam engine, job automation, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, life extension, Lyft, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, more computing power than Apollo, mutually assured destruction, Narrative Science, Network effects, Nicholas Carr, personalized medicine, precariat, precision agriculture, Productivity paradox, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, reshoring, RFID, rising living standards, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart cities, smart contracts, software as a service, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stuxnet, The Spirit Level, total factor productivity, transaction costs, Uber and Lyft, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, WikiLeaks, winner-take-all economy, women in the workforce, working-age population, Y Combinator, Zipcar

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence-but-are-we-taking-9313474.html 61 Greg Brockman, Ilya Sutskever & the OpenAI team, “Introducing OpenAI”, 11 December 2015 https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/ 62 Steven Levy, “How Elon Musk and Y Combinator Plan to Stop Computers From Taking Over”, 11 December 2015 https://medium.com/backchannel/how-elon-musk-and-y-combinator-plan-to-stop-computers-from-taking-over-17e0e27dd02a#.qjj55npcj 63 Sara Konrath, Edward O’Brien, and Courtney Hsing. “Changes in dispositional empathy in American college students over time: A meta-analysis.” Personality and Social Psychology Review (2010). 64 Quoted in: Simon Kuper, “Log out, switch off, join in”, FT Magazine, 2 October 2015. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc76fce2-67b3-11e5-97d0-1456a776a4f5.html 65 Sherry Turkle, Reclaiming Conversation: The Power of Talk in a Digital Age, Penguin, 2015. 66 Nicholas Carr, The Shallows: How the Internet is changing the way we think, read and remember, Atlantic Books, 2010. 67 Pico Iyer, The Art of Stillness: Adventures in Going Nowhere, Simon and Schuster, 2014. 68 Quoted in: Elizabeth Segran, “The Ethical Quandaries You Should Think About the Next Time You Look at Your Phone”, Fast Company, 5 October 2015.

 

pages: 230 words: 61,702

The Internet of Us: Knowing More and Understanding Less in the Age of Big Data by Michael P. Lynch

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Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Amazon Mechanical Turk, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, bitcoin, Cass Sunstein, Claude Shannon: information theory, crowdsourcing, Edward Snowden, Firefox, Google Glasses, hive mind, income inequality, Internet of things, John von Neumann, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nate Silver, new economy, patient HM, prediction markets, RFID, sharing economy, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, WikiLeaks

Or consider the case of metal detectors and full body scanners at airports. The latter were (and still are) controversial on privacy grounds; moreover, more than one person argued that the scanner violated their dignity. But while scans like this can make you uncomfortable, this sort of directed, publicly known invasion of one’s privacy is not equivalent to the systematic program of incidental collection and meta-analysis of phone call data practiced by the NSA. That’s because full body scans are given to commercial airplane passengers for a very specific reason: to detect whether they have a concealed weapon or explosives. This reason is well understood—or should be—by those given the scans. It is, in fact, a classic case of trading privacy for more security. It is a trade that may be justified, all things considered.

 

pages: 220 words: 73,451

Democratizing innovation by Eric von Hippel

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additive manufacturing, correlation coefficient, Debian, hacker house, informal economy, inventory management, iterative process, James Watt: steam engine, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Network effects, placebo effect, principal–agent problem, Richard Stallman, software patent, transaction costs, Vickrey auction

Adjusted R2 = 0.281; p = 0.002; n = 30. Source of data: Franke and von Hippel 2003. Why Many Users Want Custom Products (Chapter 3) Why do so many users develop or modify products for their own use? Users may innovate if and as they want something that is not available on the market and are able and willing to pay for its development. It is likely that many users do not find what they want on the market. Meta-analysis of market-segmentation studies suggests that users’ needs for products are highly heterogeneous in many fields (Franke and Reisinger 2003). Mass manufacturers tend to follow a strategy of developing products that are designed to meet the needs of a large market segment well enough to induce purchase from and capture significant profits from a large number of customers. When users’ needs are heterogeneous, this strategy of “a few sizes fit all” will leave many users somewhat dissatisfied with the commercial products on offer and probably will leave some users seriously dissatisfied.

 

pages: 269 words: 77,042

Sex, Lies, and Pharmaceuticals: How Drug Companies Plan to Profit From Female Sexual Dysfunction by Ray Moynihan, Barbara Mintzes

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business intelligence, clean water, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, New Journalism, placebo effect, profit motive, Ralph Nader

Nini, ‘Phosphodiesterase inhibitors for erectile dysfunction in patients with diabetes mellitus’, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, vol. 1, 2007, CD002187. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD002187.pub3. 30 C. Miles, B. Candy & L. Jones et. al., ‘Interventions for sexual dysfunction following treatments for cancer’, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, vol. 4, 2007, CD005540. DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD00540.pub.2. 31 A. Tsertsvadze, F. Yazdi & H.A. Fink et. al., ‘Oral sildenafil citrate (Viagra) for erectile dysfunction: A systematic review and meta-analysis of harms’, Urology, vol. 74, 2009, pp. 831–6. 32 US Food and Drug Administration, Sildenafil Citrate (marketed as Viagra) Information, November 2007, www.fda.gov/Drugs/DrugsSafety/PostmarketDrugSafetyInformationforPatientsandProviders/ucm162833.htm. 33 T. Melnik, B. Soares & A. Nasello, ‘Psychosocial interventions for erectile dysfunction’, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, vol. 3, 2007, CD004825.

 

pages: 291 words: 81,703

Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation by Tyler Cowen

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Amazon Mechanical Turk, Black Swan, brain emulation, Brownian motion, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, complexity theory, computer age, computer vision, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, dark matter, David Brooks, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, deliberate practice, Drosophila, en.wikipedia.org, endowment effect, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, eurozone crisis, experimental economics, Flynn Effect, Freestyle chess, full employment, future of work, game design, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, Isaac Newton, Khan Academy, labor-force participation, Loebner Prize, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Narrative Science, Netflix Prize, Nicholas Carr, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, reshoring, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Skype, statistical model, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Turing test, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, upwardly mobile, Yogi Berra

List, “Do Competitive Work Places Deter Female Workers? A Large-Scale Natural Field Experiment on Gender Differences in Job-Entry Decisions,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 16546, November 2010. On the importance of conscientiousness in the workplace and for earnings, see for instance Murray R. Barrick and Michael K. Mount, “The Big Five Personality Dimensions and Job Performance: A Meta-Analysis,” Personnel Psychology, 1991, 44(1): 1–26; Ellen K. Nyhus and Empar Pons, “The Effects of Personality on Earnings,” Journal of Economic Psychology, 2005, 26(3): 363–84; and Daniel Spurk and Andrea E. Abele, “Who Earns More and Why? A Multiple Mediation Model from Personality to Salary,” Journal of Business and Psychology, 2011, 26(1): 87–103. For more general writings on conscientiousness, see Brent W.

 

pages: 271 words: 82,159

David and Goliath: Underdogs, Misfits, and the Art of Battling Giants by Malcolm Gladwell

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affirmative action, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, medical residency, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, RAND corporation, school choice, Silicon Valley

And, as noted above, Israel also has larger class sizes than the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. So the results presented here may be showing evidence of a marginal return for reductions in class size over a range of sizes that are not characteristic of most American schools.” For a discussion of the relationship between drinking and health as an inverted-U curve, see Augusto Di Castelnuovo et al., “Alcohol Dosing and Total Mortality in Men and Women: An Updated Meta-analysis of 34 Prospective Studies,” Archives of Internal Medicine 166, no. 22 (2006): 2437–45. Jesse Levin’s research on class size and achievement is “For Whom the Reductions Count: A Quantile Regression Analysis of Class Size and Peer Effects on Scholastic Achievement,” Empirical Economics 26 (2001): 221. The obsession with small class sizes has real consequences. The one thing that all educational researchers agree about is that teacher quality matters far more than the size of the class.

 

pages: 239 words: 70,206

Data-Ism: The Revolution Transforming Decision Making, Consumer Behavior, and Almost Everything Else by Steve Lohr

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23andMe, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, big data - Walmart - Pop Tarts, bioinformatics, business intelligence, call centre, cloud computing, computer age, conceptual framework, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Danny Hillis, data is the new oil, David Brooks, East Village, Edward Snowden, Emanuel Derman, Erik Brynjolfsson, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Google Glasses, impulse control, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial robot, informal economy, Internet of things, invention of writing, John von Neumann, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, obamacare, pattern recognition, payday loans, personalized medicine, precision agriculture, pre–internet, Productivity paradox, RAND corporation, rising living standards, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, six sigma, skunkworks, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, The Design of Experiments, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, unbanked and underbanked, underbanked, Von Neumann architecture, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!

hospital infections are a huge problem: The death estimate comes from a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study by Monina Klevens et al., “Estimating Health Care-Associated Infections and Deaths in the U.S. Hospitals, 2002,” Public Health Reports 122, no. 2 (March–April 2007): 160–66. The cost estimate comes from a 2013 article by Eyal Zimlichman et al., “Health Care-Associated Infections: A Meta-analysis of Costs and Financial Impact on the US Health Care System,” JAMA Internal Medicine 173, no. 22 (Dec. 9–23, 2013): 2039–46. Alex Rubinsteyn had just completed his PhD: His descriptions and quotes come from an interview on Dec. 19, 2013. Tim O’Donnell was doing broadly similar research: His descriptions and quotes come from an interview on Dec. 24, 2013. 10: The Prying Eyes of Big Data the Kodak-wielding “camera fiend”: Information on the Kodak section comes largely from the online essays, written by David Lindsay, that accompanied the PBS American Experience series, The Wizard of Photography, which aired in 2000. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/eastman/peopleevents/index.html.

 

pages: 246 words: 81,843

David and Goliath: The Triumph of the Underdog by Malcolm Gladwell

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affirmative action, Berlin Wall, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, medical residency, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, RAND corporation, school choice, Silicon Valley

And, as noted above, Israel also has larger class sizes than the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. So the results presented here may be showing evidence of a marginal return for reductions in class size over a range of sizes that are not characteristic of most American schools.” For a discussion of the relationship between drinking and health as an inverted-U curve, see Augusto Di Castelnuovo et al., “Alcohol Dosing and Total Mortality in Men and Women: An Updated Meta-analysis of 34 Prospective Studies,” Archives of Internal Medicine 166, no. 22 (2006): 2437–45. Jesse Levin’s research on class size and achievement is “For Whom the Reductions Count: A Quantile Regression Analysis of Class Size and Peer Effects on Scholastic Achievement,” Empirical Economics 26 (2001): 221. The obsession with small class sizes has real consequences. The one thing that all educational researchers agree about is that teacher quality matters far more than the size of the class.

 

Everydata: The Misinformation Hidden in the Little Data You Consume Every Day by John H. Johnson

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Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Black Swan, business intelligence, Carmen Reinhart, cognitive bias, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Donald Trump, en.wikipedia.org, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, lake wobegon effect, Long Term Capital Management, Mercator projection, Mercator projection distort size, especially Greenland and Africa, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nate Silver, obamacare, p-value, PageRank, pattern recognition, randomized controlled trial, risk-adjusted returns, Ronald Reagan, statistical model, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tim Cook: Apple, wikimedia commons, Yogi Berra

Allison Aubrey, “Even if You’re Lean, 1 Soda Per Day Ups Your Risk of Type 2 Diabetes,” NPR website, July 23, 2015, http://www.npr.org/ sections/thesalt/2015/07/23/425635400/even‑if‑­youre-​­lean‑1‑­s oda-​­per-​­day -​­ups-​­your-​­risk‑of‑diabetes. 25. Fumiaki Imamura, Laura O’Connor, Zheng Ye, Jaako Mursu, Yasuaki Hayashino, Shilpa N. Bhupathiraju, and Nita G. Forouhi, “Consumption of Sugar Sweetened Beverages, Artifically Sweetened Beverages, and Fruit Juice and Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Systematic Review, ­Meta-​­Analysis, and Estimation of Population Attributable Fraction,” BMJ 351(2015), doi: http://dx.doi .org/10.1136/bmj.h3576. 26. On February 12, 2002, Rumsfeld (former U.S. secretary of defense) appeared at a U.S. Department of Defense briefing and said: “There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know.

 

pages: 226 words: 66,188

Adventures in Human Being (Wellcome) by Gavin Francis

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Atul Gawande, Isaac Newton, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Ralph Waldo Emerson, stem cell, traveling salesman

Hip: Jacob & the Angel p. 199 ‘He had studied …’ Italo Svevo, La Coscienza di Zeno (Milan: Einaudi, 1976), p. 109 (author’s translation). p. 202 ‘If someone over the …’ J. A. Grisso et al., ‘Risk Factors for falls as a cause of hip fracture in women’, The New England Journal of Medicine (9 May 1991), 1,326–31. p. 202 ‘Around 40 percent …’ Figures from Atul Gawande, Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End (London: Profile, 2014). p. 202 ‘Between five and eight …’ P. Haentjens et al., ‘Meta-analysis: Excess Mortality After Hip Fracture Among Older Women and Men’, Annals of Internal Medicine 152 (2010), 380–90. p. 203 ‘His name Yaakov …’ My reading of Jacob’s story has been informed by Geoffrey H. Hartman, ‘The Struggle for the Text’, from Geoffrey H. Hartman and Sanford Budick (eds), Midrash and Literature (London: Yale University Press, 1986), pp. 3–18. p. 203 ‘Some commentators have …’ Roland Barthes, ‘The Struggle with the Angel’, in Image, Music, Text, translated by Stephen Heath (Glasgow: Fontana Press, 1977).

 

pages: 224 words: 69,494

Mobility: A New Urban Design and Transport Planning Philosophy for a Sustainable Future by John Whitelegg

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active transport: walking or cycling, Berlin Wall, British Empire, car-free, conceptual framework, congestion charging, corporate social responsibility, decarbonisation, energy transition, eurozone crisis, glass ceiling, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, peak oil, post-industrial society, price mechanism, smart cities, telepresence, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Spirit Level, transit-oriented development, urban planning, urban sprawl

Bestufs (2007) Best Practice Update 2007, Part 1. Road pricing and urban freight transport. Urban freight platforms. Boege, S (1995) The well-travelled yoghurt pot: lessons for new freight transport policies and regional production, World Transport Policy and Practice, Volume 1, Number 1, 7-11. Brons, M, Pels, E, Nijkamp, P and Rietveld, P (2002) Price elasticities of demand for passenger air travel: a meta-analysis. Journal of Air Transport Management 8, 165-175. Brown, L (2009) Plan B 4.0. Mobilizing to save civilization, Earth Policy Institute, W W Norton and Company. Burke, M and Dodson, J (2014) Suburban density: disrupting the density debate in Gleeson, B and Beza, B (2014) The Public City. Essays in honour of Paul Mees, Melbourne University Press, 132-148. CAA (2012) Passenger Survey Report, Civil Aviation Authority, Table 14.7.

 

pages: 211 words: 69,380

The Antidote: Happiness for People Who Can't Stand Positive Thinking by Oliver Burkeman

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experimental subject, fear of failure, Kibera, Lao Tzu, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, science of happiness, Steve Jobs, traveling salesman, World Values Survey

A Focusing Illusion’, Science 312 (2006): 1908-10. And perhaps more to the point, it certainly seems to be the case that if you set out to achieve material goals, you’ll be less happy than those with other priorities: see Carol Nickerson et al., ‘Zeroing in on the Dark Side of the American Dream’, Psychological Science 14 (2003): 531-6. Nor does better education: See for example Robert Witter et al., ‘Education and Subjective Wellbeing: A Meta-analysis’, Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis 6 (1984): 165-73. Nor does an increased choice of consumer products: The canonical resource on this is Barry Schwartz, The Paradox of Choice (New York: Ecco, 2003). Nor do bigger and fancier homes: Robert H. Frank, ‘How Not To Buy Happiness’, Daedalus 133 (2004): 69-79. research strongly suggests they aren’t usually much help: One example is Gerald Haeffel, ‘When Self-help is No Help: Traditional Cognitive Skills Training Does Not Prevent Depressive Symptoms in People Who Ruminate’, Behaviour Research and Therapy 48 (2010): 152-7.

 

pages: 255 words: 75,208

Why We Get Fat and What to Do About It by Gary Taubes

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California gold rush, cognitive dissonance, Gary Taubes, meta analysis, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trial

Edinburgh: Livingstone. Walker, A. R. 1964. “Overweight and Hypertension in Emerging Populations.” American Heart Journal. Nov;68(5):581–85. West, K. M. 1981. “North American Indians.” In Western Diseases, ed. H. C. Trowell and D. P. Burkitt, pp. 129–37. London: Edward Arnold. Chapter 2: The Elusive Benefits of Undereating Dansinger, M. L., A. Tatsioni, W. B. Wong, M. Chung, and E. M. Balk. 2007. “Meta-Analysis: The Effect of Dietary Counseling for Weight Loss.” The Archives of Internal Medicine. Jul 3;147(1):41–50. Howard, B. V., J. E. Manson, M. L. Stefanick, et al. 2006. “Low-Fat Dietary Pattern and Weight Change over 7 Years: The Women’s Health Initiative Dietary Modification Trial.” Journal of the American Medical Association. Jan 4;295(1):39–49. Maratos-Flier, E., and J. S. Flier. 2005. “Obesity.”

 

pages: 654 words: 191,864

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman

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Albert Einstein, Atul Gawande, availability heuristic, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, cognitive bias, complexity theory, correlation coefficient, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, demand response, endowment effect, experimental economics, experimental subject, Exxon Valdez, feminist movement, framing effect, hindsight bias, index card, job satisfaction, John von Neumann, libertarian paternalism, loss aversion, medical residency, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, nudge unit, pattern recognition, pre–internet, price anchoring, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, random walk, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, The Chicago School, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, union organizing, Walter Mischel, Yom Kippur War

Bodenhausen, “Social Cognition: Thinking Categorically about Others,” Annual Review of Psychology 51 (2000): 93–120. po {"><21; : Sian L. Beilock and Thomas H. Carr, “When High-Powered People Fail: Working Memory and Choking Under Pressure in Math,” Psychological Science 16 (2005): 101–105. exertion of self-control: Martin S. Hagger et al., “Ego Depletion and the Strength Model of Self-Control: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 136 (2010): 495–525. resist the effects of ego depletion: Mark Muraven and Elisaveta Slessareva, “Mechanisms of Self-Control Failure: Motivation and Limited Resources,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 29 (2003): 894–906. Mark Muraven, Dianne M. Tice, and Roy F. Baumeister, “Self-Control as a Limited Resource: Regulatory Depletion Patterns,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 74 (1998): 774–89.

successive food breaks: Danziger, Levav, and Avnaim-Pesso, “Extraneous Factors in Judicial Decisions.” lowering validity: Richard A. DeVaul et al., “Medical-School Performance of Initially Rejected Students,” JAMA 257 (1987): 47–51. Jason Dana and Robyn M. Dawes, “Belief in the Unstructured Interview: The Persistence of an Illusion,” working paper, Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania, 2011. William M. Grove et al., “Clinical Versus Mechanical Prediction: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Assessment 12 (2000): 19–30. Dawes’s famous article: Robyn M. Dawes, “The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making,” American Psychologist 34 (1979): 571–82. not affected by accidents of sampling: Jason Dana and Robyn M. Dawes, “The Superiority of Simple Alternatives to Regression for Social Science Predictions,” Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 29 (2004): 317–31.

 

pages: 786 words: 195,810

NeuroTribes: The Legacy of Autism and the Future of Neurodiversity by Steve Silberman

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Albert Einstein, Asperger Syndrome, crowdsourcing, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, experimental subject, Golden Gate Park, Haight Ashbury, hypertext link, IBM and the Holocaust, index card, Isaac Newton, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mother of all demos, neurotypical, New Journalism, pattern recognition, placebo effect, scientific mainstream, side project, Silicon Valley, Simon Singh, Skype, slashdot, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, the scientific method, union organizing, Whole Earth Catalog, women in the workforce, Yom Kippur War

Wakefield was stripped of his medical license in England by the General Medical Council in 2010, and the editors of the British Medical Journal denounced his study as “an elaborate fraud” in 2011. Multiple attempts by independent researchers to confirm a link between autism and the MMR vaccine have failed. In 2003, researchers writing for the Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine performed a systematic meta-analysis of a dozen epidemiological studies and concluded, “The current literature does not suggest an association between ASD and the MMR vaccine. While the risk of autism from MMR remains theoretical, the consequences of not vaccinating are real.” — FROM THEIR OFFICE AT the Lorna Wing Centre for Autism a few miles outside London, Lorna and Judith regarded the vaccine controversy with a sense of tragic inevitability.

“If my son really is Patient 11”: “Exposed: Andrew Wakefield and the MMR-Autism Fraud,” Brian Deer. http://briandeer.com/mmr/lancet-summary.htm ten of the study’s co-authors took their names off the paper: “Controversial MMR and Autism Study Retracted,” Maggie McKee. New Scientist, March 4, 2004. Wakefield was stripped of his medical license: “Retracted Autism Study an ‘Elaborate Fraud,’ British Journal Finds,” CNN Wire Staff. http://www.cnn.com/2011/HEALTH/01/05/autism.vaccines/ a systematic meta-analysis of a dozen epidemiological studies: “Association of Autistic Spectrum Disorder and the Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccine: A Systematic Review of Current Epidemiological Evidence,” Kumanan Wilson et al. Archives of Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine, Vol. 157, No. 7, July 2003, pp. 628–63. “It’s a question of diagnosis”: Lorna Wing and Judith Gould, interview with the author, 2011. CHAPTER 11.

 

pages: 257 words: 94,168

Oil Panic and the Global Crisis: Predictions and Myths by Steven M. Gorelick

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California gold rush, carbon footprint, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, income per capita, invention of the telephone, meta analysis, meta-analysis, North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, statistical model, Thomas Malthus

“Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand,” The Energy Journal, 29(1). Cooper, J. C. B. (2003). “Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries,” OPEC Review, 27: 1–8. US Federal Trade Commission (2005). “Gasoline price changes: The dynamics of supply, demand, and competition,” page 135, citing Epsey, M. (1998). “Gasoline Demand Revisited: An International Meta-Analysis of Elasticities,” Energy Economics, 20: 273–95, for long-term elasticity value and their own analysis for the short-term value. Cooper, J. C. B. (2003). Price elasticity of demand for crude oil: estimates for 23 countries, OPEC Review, 27: 1–8. www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/gasoline_q-and-a.html Ye, M., J. Zyren, J. Shore, and M. Burdette (2005). “Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through in U.S.

 

pages: 304 words: 22,886

Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness by Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein

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Al Roth, Albert Einstein, asset allocation, availability heuristic, call centre, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, continuous integration, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, desegregation, diversification, diversified portfolio, endowment effect, equity premium, feminist movement, framing effect, full employment, George Akerlof, index fund, invisible hand, late fees, libertarian paternalism, loss aversion, Mahatma Gandhi, Mason jar, medical malpractice, medical residency, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, pension reform, presumed consent, profit maximization, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Saturday Night Live, school choice, school vouchers, transaction costs, Vanguard fund, Zipcar

Research in progress (a). ———. “Simplifying the FAFSA: The Effects on College Enrollment.” Research in progress (b). Bikhchandani, Sushil, David Hirshleifer, and Ivo Welch. “Learning from the Behavior of Others.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 12, no. 3 (1998): 151–70. Boaz, David. Libertarianism: A Primer. New York: Free Press, 1997. Bond, Rod, and Peter Smith. “Culture and Conformity: A Meta-Analysis of Studies Using Asch’s Line Judgment Task.” Psychological Bulletin 119 (1996): 111–37. Boston Research Group. “Enron Has Little Effect on 401(k) Participants’ View of Company Stock.” 2002. Breman, Anna. “Give More Tomorrow: A Field Experiment on Intertemporal Choice in Charitable Giving.” Working paper, Stockholm University, November 7, 2006. http://www.hhs.se/NR/rdonlyres/A6055D0E-49AE-4BBF-A9FC-ECC965E9 DF84/0/GMT_jobmarket.pdf.

 

pages: 312 words: 35,664

The Mathematics of Banking and Finance by Dennis W. Cox, Michael A. A. Cox

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barriers to entry, Brownian motion, call centre, correlation coefficient, inventory management, iterative process, linear programming, meta analysis, meta-analysis, P = NP, pattern recognition, random walk, traveling salesman, value at risk

However, the use of a questionnaire-based approach may be preferable to a team of illinformed or biased interviewers, since it should be completely standard with the same question asked of each customer in the same way. Finally there is the option of conducting a literature search, in its broadest sense. The data required might already be available – for example, in the company’s records. Would it be possible to combine the results of a number of independent but related studies using statistical methods to retrieve, select and combine the data – a process referred to as meta-analysis? The case may also occur where a range of independent surveys has already been conducted and their results published. While the results on a survey in the USA may not be directly applicable to the business you are looking at in the United Kingdom, the conclusions are likely to be of interest and the questions employed may also be suitable for your purposes. Sampling 49 Having settled on the testing approach to be employed, the sample must then be chosen.

 

pages: 309 words: 86,909

The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger by Richard Wilkinson; Kate Pickett

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Berlin Wall, clean water, Diane Coyle, epigenetics, experimental economics, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, full employment, germ theory of disease, Gini coefficient, impulse control, income inequality, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, land reform, Louis Pasteur, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, offshore financial centre, phenotype, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit maximization, profit motive, Ralph Waldo Emerson, statistical model, The Chicago School, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, ultimatum game, upwardly mobile, World Values Survey

Daly, ‘Competitiveness, risk-taking and violence: the young male syndrome’, Ethology and Sociobiology (1985) 6: 59–73. 209. D. M. Buss, The Evolution of Desire: Strategies of human mating. New York: Basic Books, 1994. 210. P. Fajnzylber, D. Lederman and N. Loayza, ‘Inequality and violent crime’, Journal of Law and Economics (2002) 45: 1–40. 211. C.-C. Hsieh and M. D. Pugh, ‘Poverty, income inequality, and violent crime: A meta-analysis of recent aggregate data studies’, Criminal Justice Review (1993) 18: 182–202. 212. United Nations Crime and Justice Information Network, Survey on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, Eighth). New York: United Nations, 2000. 213. Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1990–2000. 214.

 

pages: 605 words: 110,673

Drugs Without the Hot Air by David Nutt

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British Empire, double helix, en.wikipedia.org, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, offshore financial centre, randomized controlled trial, risk tolerance, Robert Gordon, War on Poverty

.”• LSD: my problem child, Albert Hofmann, McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1980 4 “I lost all control of time• As above. 5 they recorded that they found themselves taking their schizophrenic patients’ accounts of their illness more seriously• Hofmann’s Potion: The Early Years of LSD, Connie Littlefield, URL-120, 2002 6 The LSD trials at Saskatchewan• As above. 7 outbreak of insanity in the French town of Pont-Saint-Esprit in 1951• A terrible mistake, Hank Albarelli, Trine Day, 2009 8 Leary first tried psilocybin, the active ingredient in magic mushrooms, and he soon began experimenting with LSD as well• Hofmann’s Potion: The Early Years of LSD, Connie Littlefield, URL-120, 2002 9 “hearing voices”• Schizophrenia, National Institute of Mental Health, URL-118. 10 an edition of Spiderman in 1971• The Amazing Spiderman issues #96–98, Stan Lee, Marvel Comics, May–July 1971 11 five other studies that have found LSD helps people overcome alcoholism• Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) for alcoholism: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials, Teri S. Krebs and Pal-Orjan Johansen, Journal of Psychopharmacology, 2011 12 cluster headaches self-medicate with psychedelics• Will Harvard drop acid again?, Peter Bebergal, URL-121, June 9th 2008 13 use in problem solving• LSD – The Problem Solving Psychedelic, PG Stafford and BH Golightly, Award Books, 1967 14 Francis Crick• Nobel Prize Genius Crick was High on LSD when he discovered the secret of life, Alun Rees, the Mail on Sunday, August 8th 2004 15 Kary Mullis• BBC Horizon – Psychedelic Science – DMT, LSD, Ibogaine – Part 5, BBC, 1997 16 polymerase chain reaction (PCR)• The polymerase chain reaction is used to “amplify” a small amount of DNA, to produce a larger quantity that makes testing possible or easier.

 

pages: 422 words: 104,457

Dragnet Nation: A Quest for Privacy, Security, and Freedom in a World of Relentless Surveillance by Julia Angwin

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AltaVista, Ayatollah Khomeini, barriers to entry, bitcoin, Chelsea Manning, clean water, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, data is the new oil, David Graeber, Debian, Edward Snowden, Filter Bubble, Firefox, GnuPG, Google Chrome, Google Glasses, informal economy, Jacob Appelbaum, Julian Assange, market bubble, market design, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, prediction markets, price discrimination, randomized controlled trial, RFID, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, security theater, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart meter, Steven Levy, Upton Sinclair, WikiLeaks, Y2K, Zimmermann PGP

LinkedIn said that after: LinkedIn Corp., “Privacy Policy: LinkedIn.” “A public display of connections”: Judith Donath and Danah Boyd, “Public Displays of Connection,” BT Technology Journal 22, no. 4 (October 2004): 73, http://www.danah.org/papers/PublicDisplays.pdf. Scientists have found that people: Nalini Ambady and Robert Rosenthal, “Thin Slices of Expressive Behavior as Predictors of Interpersonal Consequences: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 111, no. 2 (1992): 256, http://ambadylab.stanford.edu/pubs/1992Ambady.pdf. Online photos are notoriously misleading: Lauren F. Sessions, “‘You Looked Better on MySpace’: Deception and Authenticity on Web 2.0,” First Monday 14, no. 7 (July 6, 2009), http://firstmonday.org/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/2539/2242#4a. Donath … has done fascinating work: Judith S. Donath, “Identity and Deception in the Virtual Community,” in Communities in Cyberspace (New York: Routledge, 1999), 27.

 

pages: 342 words: 94,762

Wait: The Art and Science of Delay by Frank Partnoy

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algorithmic trading, Atul Gawande, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, blood diamonds, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, Flash crash, Frederick Winslow Taylor, George Akerlof, Google Earth, Hernando de Soto, High speed trading, impulse control, income inequality, Isaac Newton, Long Term Capital Management, Menlo Park, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nick Leeson, paper trading, Paul Graham, payday loans, Ralph Nader, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, six sigma, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, statistical model, Steve Jobs, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, upwardly mobile, Walter Mischel

The researchers’ judgment was stark: “Equal treatment in the face of unequal diagnosis between the two groups constitutes a disparity.” Green et al., “Implicit Bias Among Physicians,” p. 7. 4. Dana R. Carney and Greg Willard, “Racial Prejudice Is Contagious,” working paper, available at: http://www.columbia.edu/~dc2534/Contagion.pdf. 5. Nalini Ambady and Robert Rosenthal, “Thin Slices of Expressive Behavior as Predictors of Interpersonal Consequences: A Meta-Analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 111(1992): 256–274. 6. Nalini Ambady and Robert Rosenthal, “Predicting Teacher Evaluations from Thin Slices of Nonverbal Behavior and Physical Attractiveness,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 64(3, 1993): 431–441. 7. Gordon W. Allport, Personality: A Psychological Interpretation (Holt, 1937). 8. Malcolm Gladwell, Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (Little, Brown, 2005), p. 8. 9.

 

pages: 369 words: 98,776

The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas

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back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Haber-Bosch Process, ice-free Arctic, invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Negawatt, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, planetary scale, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, Stewart Brand, University of East Anglia

Fisch, 2008: “Declining Worldwide Sperm Counts: Disproving a Myth,” Urologic Clinics of North America, 35, 137–47. 17. M.-H. Wang et al., 2008: “Endocrine Disruptors, Genital Development, and Hypospadias,” Journal of Andrology, 29, 499–505. 18. H. Fisch et al., 2010: “Rising Hypospadias Rates: Disproving a Myth,” Journal of Pediatric Urology, 6, 1, 37–9. 19. M. López-Cervantes et al., 2004: “Dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane Burden and Breast Cancer Risk: A Meta-analysis of the Epidemiologic Evidence,” Environmental Health Perspectives, 112, 2, 207–14. 20. M. Gammon et al., 2002: “Environmental Toxins and Breast Cancer on Long Island. II. Organochlorine Compound Levels in Blood,” Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention, 11, 8, 686–97. 21. S. Safe, 2004: “Endocrine Disruptors and Human Health: Is There a Problem,” Toxicology, 205, 1–2, 3–10. 22. A. Blaustein and P.

 

pages: 362 words: 99,063

The Education of Millionaires: It's Not What You Think and It's Not Too Late by Michael Ellsberg

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affirmative action, Black Swan, Burning Man, corporate governance, financial independence, follow your passion, future of work, hiring and firing, job automation, knowledge worker, Lean Startup, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, Peter Thiel, profit motive, race to the bottom, Sand Hill Road, shareholder value, side project, Silicon Valley, Skype, Steve Ballmer, telemarketer, Tony Hsieh

“My career unfolded along the leading edge of this transformation, so in a sense I was too early to reap all the benefits. But there’s a generation of kids coming, who have grown up with Wikipedia, who have grown up with a notion that they’re not just a consumer of media, but a participant. They therefore have a deeper and more ingrained skepticism of the media, and therefore have a better capability to distinguish truth from fiction, authority from charlatan. This capability for meta-analysis of information is essential as they wade through the vast sea of information. For the first time in history they have all the world’s information at their disposal, accessible from anywhere they want. The result is that this emerging generation no longer has reality dictated to them—they are finally empowered to construct their own unique, and possibly idiosyncratic, perspective on the world, if they so choose.

 

pages: 312 words: 89,728

The End of My Addiction by Olivier Ameisen

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Albert Einstein, epigenetics, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, randomized controlled trial, statistical model

Gulmann NC, Bahr B, Andersen B, et al. A double-blind trial of baclofen against placebo in the treatment of schizophrenia. Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1976; 54:287–293. 9. Bigelow LB, Nasrallah H, Carman J, et al. Baclofen treatment in chronic schizophrenia: a clinical trial. Am J Psychiatry. 1977; 134:318–320. 10. Soares KV, McGrath JJ. The treatment of tardive dyskinesia—a systematic review and meta-analysis. Schizophr Res. 1999; 39:1–16. 11. Glazer WM, Moore DC, Bowers MB. The treatment of tardive dyskinesia with baclofen. Psychopharmacology (Berlin). 1985; 87:480–483. 12. Itil TM, Herkert E, Schneider SJ, et al. Baclofen in the treatment of tardive dyskinesia: open label study. Acta Ther. 1980; 6:315–323. 13. Nair NP, Yassa R, Ruiz-Navarro J, et al. Baclofen in the treatment of tardive dyskinesia.

 

pages: 353 words: 110,919

The Road to Character by David Brooks

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Cass Sunstein, David Brooks, desegregation, Donald Trump, follow your passion, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, New Journalism, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rent control, Snapchat, Steve Jobs, Triangle Shirtwaist Factory, union organizing, Upton Sinclair, upwardly mobile

University of California, Los Angeles. February, 1997. 21. Gretchen Anderson, “Loneliness Among Older Adults: A National Survey of Adults 45+” (AARP Research and Strategic Analysis, 2010). 22. Francis Fukuyama, The Great Disruption: Human Nature and the Reconstitution of Social Order (Profile, 1999), 50. 23. Sara Konrath, “Changes in Dispositional Empathy in American College Students Over Time: A Meta-Analysis” (University of Michigan, 2011). 24. Jean M. Twenge, W. Keith Campbell, and Brittany Gentile, “Increases in Individualistic Words and Phrases in American Books, 1960–2008” (2012), PLoS ONE 7(7): e40181, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0040181. 25. David Brooks, “What Our Words Tell Us,” New York Times, May 20, 2013. 26. Pelin Kesebir and Selin Kesebir, “The Cultural Salience of Moral Character and Virtue Declined in Twentieth Century America,” Journal of Positive Psychology, 2012. 27.

 

pages: 366 words: 87,916

Fluent Forever: How to Learn Any Language Fast and Never Forget It by Gabriel Wyner

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card file, crowdsourcing, en.wikipedia.org, index card, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, Skype, spaced repetition, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Yogi Berra

The first provides a nice overview of the research in general, and the second delves a bit deeper into the mnemonic advantages of Personal Connection (also known as the Self-Reference Effect): Robert S. Lockhart and Fergus I. M. Craik, “Levels of Processing: A Retrospective Commentary on a Framework for Memory Research,” Canadian Journal of Psychology 44, no. 1 (1990): 87–112; Cynthia S. Symons and Blair T. Johnson, “The Self-Reference Effect in Memory: A Meta-Analysis,” CHIP Documents (1997): Paper 9. 2 This effect even applies to totally unrelated images: Note that a related image works better, so if you need to learn the word apple, you might as well grab a picture of an apple. Also note that if the image is the opposite of what you’re learning (if you’re learning hot with a picture of an ice cube), you’re going to have a harder time remembering that combination.

 

pages: 285 words: 86,174

Twilight of the Elites: America After Meritocracy by Chris Hayes

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affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, asset-backed security, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, carried interest, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, dark matter, David Brooks, David Graeber, deindustrialization, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, fixed income, full employment, George Akerlof, hiring and firing, income inequality, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Julian Assange, Mark Zuckerberg, mass affluent, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, Nate Silver, peak oil, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Ralph Waldo Emerson, rolodex, The Spirit Level, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, We are the 99%, WikiLeaks, women in the workforce

Esquire, January 18, 2011. 41 “And I—I mean—you know, my dad”: See “Republican Presidential Candidates Participate in a CNN-Sponsored Debate,” Political Transcript Wire, January 20, 2012. 42 “It was always a business where you had to have an edge”: Steve Fishman, “The Madoff Tapes,” New York, February 27, 2011. 43 “I am an important person”: Jean M. Twenge et al., “Egos Inflating Over Time: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis of the Narcissistic Personality Disorder,” Journal of Personality 76, no. 4 (2008): 878. 44 “People with insecure high self-esteem”: Kate Pickett and Richard Wilkinson, The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger (New York: Bloomsbury), p. 37. 45 “not that smart and kind of a bully”: See Jeffrey Rosen, “The Case Against Sotomayor,” New Republic, May 4, 2009. 46 “meritocratic feedback loop”: Ho, Liquidated, p. 57. 47 “There’s 100 percent no question”: Author interview. 48 “the outstretched arms of J.P.

 

pages: 354 words: 91,875

The Willpower Instinct: How Self-Control Works, Why It Matters, and What You Can Doto Get More of It by Kelly McGonigal

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banking crisis, bioinformatics, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, cognitive bias, delayed gratification, game design, impulse control, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, phenotype, Richard Thaler, Wall-E, Walter Mischel

P age 137—Goal to feel better trumps self-control: Tice, D. M., and E. Bratslavsky. “Giving In to Feel Good: The Place of Emotion Regulation in the Context of General Self-Control.” Psychological Inquiry: An International Journal for the Advancement of Psychological Theory 11 (2000): 149–59. Page 139—Terror management theory: Burke, B. L., A. Martens, and E. H. Faucher. “Two Decades of Terror Management Theory: A Meta-Analysis of Mortality Salience Research.” Personality and Social Psychology Review 14 (2010): 155–95. Page 140—Death and comfort eating: Mandel, N., and D. Smeesters. “The Sweet Escape: Effects of Mortality Salience on Consumption Quantities for High- and Low-Self-Esteem Consumers.” Journal of Consumer Research 35 (2008): 309–23. Page 140—Death and status symbols: Mandel, N., and S. J. Heine. “Terror Management and Marketing: He Who Dies with the Most Toys Wins.”

 

pages: 297 words: 96,509

Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert

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Albert Einstein, cognitive dissonance, Drosophila, endowment effect, impulse control, indoor plumbing, loss aversion, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Necker cube, Ronald Reagan, science of happiness, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith

Bonanno and S. Kaltman, “Toward an Integrative Perspective on Bereavement,” Psychological Bulletin 125: 760–76 (1999); and G. A. Bonnano et al., “Resilience to Loss and Chronic Grief: A Prospective Study from Preloss to 18-Months Postloss,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 83: 1150–64 (2002). 3. E. J. Ozer et al., “Predictors of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Symptoms in Adults: A Meta-analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 129: 52–73 (2003). 4. G. A. Bonanno, C. Rennicke, and S. Dekel, “Self-Enhancement Among High-Exposure Survivors of the September 11th Terrorist Attack: Resilience or Social Maladjustment?” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 88: 984–98 (2005). 5. R. G. Tedeschi and L. G. Calhoun, “Posttraumatic Growth: Conceptual Foundations and Empirical Evidence,” Psychological Inquiry 15: 1–18 (2004); P.

 

pages: 297 words: 96,509

Time Paradox by Philip, John Boyd Zimbardo

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Albert Einstein, cognitive dissonance, Drosophila, endowment effect, impulse control, indoor plumbing, loss aversion, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Necker cube, Ronald Reagan, science of happiness, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith

Bonanno and S. Kaltman, “Toward an Integrative Perspective on Bereavement,” Psychological Bulletin 125: 760–76 (1999); and G. A. Bonnano et al., “Resilience to Loss and Chronic Grief: A Prospective Study from Preloss to 18-Months Postloss,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 83: 1150–64 (2002). 3. E. J. Ozer et al., “Predictors of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Symptoms in Adults: A Meta-analysis,” Psychological Bulletin 129: 52–73 (2003). 4. G. A. Bonanno, C. Rennicke, and S. Dekel, “Self-Enhancement Among High-Exposure Survivors of the September 11th Terrorist Attack: Resilience or Social Maladjustment?” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 88: 984–98 (2005). 5. R. G. Tedeschi and L. G. Calhoun, “Posttraumatic Growth: Conceptual Foundations and Empirical Evidence,” Psychological Inquiry 15: 1–18 (2004); P.

 

pages: 407 words: 103,501

The Digital Divide: Arguments for and Against Facebook, Google, Texting, and the Age of Social Netwo Rking by Mark Bauerlein

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Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrew Keen, centre right, citizen journalism, collaborative editing, computer age, computer vision, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, David Brooks, disintermediation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Howard Rheingold, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invention of the telephone, Jaron Lanier, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, late fees, Mark Zuckerberg, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, PageRank, pets.com, Results Only Work Environment, Saturday Night Live, search engine result page, semantic web, Silicon Valley, slashdot, social graph, social web, software as a service, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, technology bubble, Ted Nelson, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thorstein Veblen, web application

Six hours is far less than a Digital Native would typically spend over a weekend watching TV and playing video games. The trick, though, is to make the learning games compelling enough to actually be used in their place. They must be real games, not just drills with eye candy, combined creatively with real content. The numbers back this up. The Lightspan Partnership, which created PlayStation games for curricular reinforcement, conducted studies in over 400 individual school districts and a “meta-analysis” as well. Their findings were increases in vocabulary and language arts of 24 and 25 percent respectively over the control groups, while the math problem solving and math procedures and algorithms scores were 51 and 30 percent higher.29 Click Health, which makes games to help kids self-manage their health issues, did clinical trials funded by the National Institutes of Health. They found, in the case of diabetes, that kids playing their games (as compared to a control group playing a pinball game) showed measurable gains in self-efficacy, communication with parents and diabetes self-care.

 

pages: 319 words: 90,965

The End of College: Creating the Future of Learning and the University of Everywhere by Kevin Carey

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Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, business intelligence, carbon-based life, Claude Shannon: information theory, complexity theory, declining real wages, deliberate practice, discrete time, double helix, Douglas Engelbart, Downton Abbey, Drosophila, Firefox, Frank Gehry, Google X / Alphabet X, informal economy, invention of the printing press, inventory management, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, low skilled workers, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, Network effects, open borders, pattern recognition, Peter Thiel, pez dispenser, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, social web, South of Market, San Francisco, speech recognition, Steve Jobs, technoutopianism, transcontinental railway, Vannevar Bush

Army conducted an education technology experiment: Ruth Colvin Clark and Richard E. Meyer, e-Learning and the Science of Instruction, San Francisco: Pfeiffer, 2008, p. 12. The U.S. Department of Education has examined scores of online learning studies: Barbara Means, Yukie Toyama, Robert Murphy, Marianne Bakia, Karla Jones, and the Center for Technology in Learning, Evaluation of Evidence-Based Practices in Online Learning: A Meta-Analysis and Review of Online Learning Studies, U.S. Department of Education, Office of Planning, Evaluation, and Policy Development, Policy and Program Studies Service, revised 2010, http://www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-based-practices/finalreport.pdf. Suppes showed up on the first day of class: Michael Allen, “Addressing Diversity in (e-)Learning,” in Michael Allen’s e-Learning Annual, 2008, San Francisco: Pfeiffer, 2008.

 

pages: 111 words: 1

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Antoine Gombaud: Chevalier de Méré, availability heuristic, backtesting, Benoit Mandelbrot, Black Swan, complexity theory, corporate governance, currency peg, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, discounted cash flows, diversified portfolio, endowment effect, equity premium, global village, hindsight bias, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, mandelbrot fractal, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, QWERTY keyboard, random walk, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, road to serfdom, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, shareholder value, Sharpe ratio, Steven Pinker, stochastic process, too big to fail, Turing test, Yogi Berra

Value of the seat: Even then, by some attribution bias, traders tend to believe that their income is due to their skills, not the “seat,” or the “franchise” (i.e., the value of the order flow).The seat has a value as the New York Stock Exchange specialist “book” is worth quite large sums: See Hilton (2003). See also Taleb (1997) for a discussion of the time and place advantage. Data mining: Sullivan, Timmermann and White (1999). Dogs not barking: I thank my correspondent Francesco Corielli from Bocconi for his remark on meta-analysis. CHAPTER 10 Networks: Arthur (1994). See Barabasi (2002), Watts (2003). Nonlinear dynamics: For an introduction to nonlinear dynamics in finance, see Brock and De Lima (1995), and Brock, Hsieh and LeBaron (1991). See also the recent, and certainly the most complete, Sornette (2003). Sornette goes beyond just characterizing the process as fat-tailed and saying that the probability distribution is different from the one we learned in Finance 101.

 

pages: 276 words: 93,430

Animal: The Autobiography of a Female Body by Sara Pascoe

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Albert Einstein, Berlin Wall, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, meta analysis, meta-analysis, presumed consent, rolodex, WikiLeaks

If breast enlargement is advertised on the tube, talked about nonchalantly in newspaper columns and on chat shows, we are all complicit in making it an understandable response to body issues. We continue a culture where women who don’t depend on men wanting sex with them for income behave as if they do. Want to know a disturbing statistic? You know I said that all women who have boob jobs are unwittingly part of an ongoing study; well, lots of studies are conducted using their data – health complications afterwards, further cosmetic procedures, etc. And a meta-analysis of all these studies found that women who’ve had breast enlargements are two to three times more likely to commit suicide than women who haven’t. We need to think about that. About why this is happening, about the vulnerabilities of the women who choose cosmetic surgery and the normalisation of such choices. When they asked cosmetic surgeons about this rise in suicides they didn’t understand: ‘they were happy with their operations,’ they said; ‘she didn’t show signs of depression.’

 

pages: 504 words: 147,660

In the Realm of Hungry Ghosts: Close Encounters With Addiction by Gabor Mate, Peter A. Levine

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Albert Einstein, Anton Chekhov, corporate governance, epigenetics, ghettoisation, impulse control, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, phenotype, placebo effect, Yogi Berra

“Recovering Church: The 2005 Greenfield Lectures,” St John the Baptist Episcopal Church, Portland, Oregon; http://www.st-john-the-baptist.org/Greenfield_lectures.htm. CHAPTER 12 FROM VIETNAM TO “RAT PARK” 1. G.M. Aronoff, “Opioids in Chronic Pain Management: Is There a Significant Risk of Addiction?” Current Review of Pain 4(2) (2000): 112–21. 2. A.D. Furlan, “Opioids for Chronic Noncancer Pain: A Meta-analysis of Effectiveness and Side Effects,” CMAJ 174(11) (23 May 2006): 1589–94. 3. S.R. Ytterberg et al., “Codeine and Oxycodone Use in Patients with Chronic Rheumatic Disease Pain,” Arthritis and Rheumatism 14(9) (September 1998): 1603–12. 4. L. Dodes, The Heart of Addiction (New York: HarperCollins, 2002), 73. 5. L. Robins et al., “Narcotic Use in Southeast Asia and Afterward,” Archives of General Psychiatry 23 (1975): 955–61. 6.

 

pages: 542 words: 161,731

Alone Together by Sherry Turkle

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Albert Einstein, Columbine, global village, Hacker Ethic, helicopter parent, Howard Rheingold, industrial robot, information retrieval, Jacques de Vaucanson, Jaron Lanier, Kevin Kelly, Loebner Prize, Marshall McLuhan, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Nicholas Carr, Norbert Wiener, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Rodney Brooks, Skype, stem cell, technoutopianism, The Great Good Place, the medium is the message, theory of mind, Turing test, Vannevar Bush, Wall-E, women in the workforce

See Groopman, “Robots That Care.” 29 A University of Michigan study found that today’s college students have less empathy than those of the 1980s or 1990s. Today’s generation scored about 40 percent lower in empathy than their counterparts did twenty or thirty years ago. Sara Konrath, a researcher at the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research, conducted, with University of Michigan graduate student Edward O’Brien and undergraduate student Courtney Hsing, a meta-analysis that looked at data on empathy, combining the results of seventy-two different studies of American college students conducted between 1979 and 2009. Compared to college students of the late 1970s, the study found, college students today are less likely to agree with statements such as “I sometimes try to understand my friends better by imagining how things look from their perspective” and “I often have tender, concerned feelings for people less fortunate than me.”

 

pages: 487 words: 151,810

The Social Animal: The Hidden Sources of Love, Character, and Achievement by David Brooks

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Albert Einstein, asset allocation, Atul Gawande, Bernie Madoff, business process, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, clean water, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, delayed gratification, deliberate practice, disintermediation, Donald Trump, Douglas Hofstadter, Emanuel Derman, en.wikipedia.org, fear of failure, financial deregulation, financial independence, Flynn Effect, George Akerlof, Henri Poincaré, hiring and firing, impulse control, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, labor-force participation, loss aversion, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Monroe Doctrine, Richard Thaler, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, school vouchers, six sigma, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, Walter Mischel, young professional

“I don’t think there is any single thing in an impoverished environment that is responsible for the deleterious effects of poverty.” Turkheimer had spent years trying to find which parts of growing up with a poor background produced the most negative results. He could easily show the total results of poverty, but when he tried to measure the impact of specific variables, he found there was nothing there. He conducted a meta-analysis of forty-three studies that scrutinized which specific elements of a child’s background most powerfully shaped cognitive deficiencies. The studies failed to demonstrate the power of any specific variable, even though the total effect of all the variables put together was very clear. That doesn’t mean you do nothing to alleviate the effects of poverty. It means you don’t try to break down those effects into constituent parts.

 

pages: 385 words: 117,391

The Complete Thyroid Book by Kenneth Ain, M. Sara Rosenthal

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follow your passion, medical residency, meta analysis, meta-analysis, place-making, placebo effect, Post-materialism, post-materialism, randomized controlled trial, upwardly mobile

“Beta-Adrenergic Blockade for the Treatment of Hyperthyroidism.” The American Journal of Medicine 93, no. 1 (1992): 61–68. Gharib, H. “Changing Concepts in the Diagnosis and Management of Thyroid Nodules.” Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinics of North America 26, no. 4 (1997): 777–800. Grozinsky-Glasberg, S., et al. “Thyroxine-Triiodothyronine Combination Therapy Versus Thyroxine Monotherapy for Clinical Hypothyroidism: Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.” Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism (2006) 91:2592–99. Gruters, A., H. Biebermann, and H. Krude. “Neonatal Thyroid Disorders.” Hormone Research 59, suppl. 1 (2003): 24–29. Hegedus, L., S. J. Bonnema, and F. N. Bennedbaek. “Management of Simple Nodular Goiter: Current Status and Future Perspectives.” Endocrine Reviews 24, no. 1 (2003): 102–32. Henderson, L., Q.

 

pages: 462 words: 150,129

The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves by Matt Ridley

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23andMe, agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, Corn Laws, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, falling living standards, feminist movement, financial innovation, Flynn Effect, food miles, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, happiness index / gross national happiness, haute cuisine, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, invention of agriculture, invisible hand, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Kula ring, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Northern Rock, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, packet switching, patent troll, Pax Mongolica, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Productivity paradox, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Silicon Valley, spice trade, spinning jenny, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supervolcano, technological singularity, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transaction costs, ultimatum game, upwardly mobile, urban sprawl, Vernor Vinge, wage slave, working poor, working-age population, Y2K, Yogi Berra

Tomorrow’s Table: Organic Farming, Genetics and the Future of Food. Oxford University Press. p. 152 ‘a near-doubling of yield and a halving of insecticide use’. ISAAA 2009. The Dawn of a New Era: Biotech Crops in India. ISAAA Brief 39, 2009: http://www.isaaa.org/resources/publications/downloads/The-Dawn-of-a-New-Era.pdf. p. 152 ‘the use of insecticides is down by as much as 80 per cent’. Marvier M., McCreedy, C., Regetz, J. and Kareiva, P. 2007. A meta-analysis of effects of Bt cotton and maize on nontarget invertebrates. Science 316:1475–7; also Wu, K.-M. et al. 2008. Suppression of cotton bollworm in multiple crops in China in areas with Bt Toxin-containing cotton. Science 321:1676–8 (doi: 10.1126/science.1160550). p. 152 ‘the leaders of the organic movement locked themselves out of a new technology’. Ronald, P.C. and Adamchak, R.W. 2008. Tomorrow’s Table: Genetics, and the Future of Food.

 

pages: 476 words: 132,042

What Technology Wants by Kevin Kelly

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Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, Buckminster Fuller, c2.com, carbon-based life, Cass Sunstein, charter city, Clayton Christensen, cloud computing, computer vision, Danny Hillis, dematerialisation, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, en.wikipedia.org, Exxon Valdez, George Gilder, gravity well, hive mind, Howard Rheingold, interchangeable parts, invention of air conditioning, invention of writing, Isaac Newton, Jaron Lanier, John Conway, John von Neumann, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, Lao Tzu, life extension, Louis Daguerre, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, out of africa, performance metric, personalized medicine, phenotype, Picturephone, planetary scale, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, refrigerator car, Richard Florida, Silicon Valley, silicon-based life, Skype, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Ted Kaczynski, the built environment, the scientific method, Thomas Malthus, Vernor Vinge, Whole Earth Catalog, Y2K

Cataloged library with index (at Alexandria), a way to search recorded information 1403 Collaborative encyclopedia, a pooling of knowledge from more than one person 1590 Controlled experiment, used by Francis Bacon, wherein one changes a single variable in a test 1665 Necessary repeatability, Robert Boyle’s idea that results of an experiment must be repeatable to be valid 1752 Peer-review-refereed journal, adding a layer of confirmation and validation over shared knowledge 1885 Blinded, randomized design, a way to reduce human bias; randomness as a new kind of information 1934 Falsifiable testability, Karl Popper’s notion that any valid experiment must have some testable way it can fail 1937 Controlled placebo, a refinement in experiments to remove the effect of biased knowledge of the participant 1946 Computer simulations, a new way of making a theory and generating data 1952 Double-blind experiment, a further refinement to remove the effect of knowledge of the experimenter 1974 Meta-analysis, a second-level analysis of all previous analysis in a given field Together these landmark innovations create the modern practice of science. (I am ignoring various alternative claims of priority because for my purposes the exact dates don’t matter.) A typical scientific discovery today will rely on facts and a falsifiable hypothesis; be tested in repeatable, controlled experiments, perhaps with placebos and double-blind controls; and be reported in a peer-reviewed journal and indexed in a library of related reports.

 

pages: 484 words: 131,168

The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart by Bill Bishop, Robert G. Cushing

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1960s counterculture, affirmative action, big-box store, blue-collar work, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, cognitive dissonance, David Brooks, demographic transition, desegregation, Edward Glaeser, immigration reform, income inequality, Jane Jacobs, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, music of the spheres, New Urbanism, post-industrial society, Post-materialism, post-materialism, Ralph Nader, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, stem cell, Steve Jobs, superstar cities, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, union organizing, War on Poverty, white flight, World Values Survey

Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1977. Inglehart, Ronald, and Wayne Baker. "Modernization, Cultural Change, and the Persistence of Traditional Values." American Sociological Review 65 (February 2000). Inglehart, Ronald, and Christian Welzel. Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005. Isenberg, Daniel J. "Group Polarization: A Critical Review and Meta-Analysis." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 50, no. 6 (1986). Jacobs, Jane. Cities and the Wealth of Nations. New York. Vintage Books, 1985. ———. The Death and Life of Great American Cities. New York: Random House, 1961. ———. The Economy of Cities. New York: Vintage Books, 1970. Jacobson, Gary C. "Explaining the Ideological Polarization of the Congressional Parties Since the 1970s." Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, 2004.

 

pages: 453 words: 132,400

Flow by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi

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Albert Einstein, Bonfire of the Vanities, centralized clearinghouse, conceptual framework, correlation does not imply causation, double helix, fear of failure, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job satisfaction, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Necker cube, pattern recognition, place-making, Ralph Waldo Emerson, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

Csikszentmihalyi (M. Csikszentmihalyi 1975, pp. 123–39). The first two quotations are from Csikszentmihalyi (1975), p. 129, the next two from ibid., p. 136. The ESM study that looks at how much flow American workers report on their job and in leisure was reported in Csikszentmihalyi & LeFevre (1987, 1989) and LeFevre (1988). Dissatisfaction. The low percentages of dissatisfied workers were computed by a meta-analysis performed in 1980 on 15 national surveys between 1972 and 1978; see Argyle (1987, p. 32). Our studies of American workers. In addition to the ESM studies, here I am drawing on data I have collected over a period of five years (1984–88) on about 400 managers, from different companies and all parts of the country, who have attended the Vail Management Seminars organized by the Office of Continuing Education of the University of Chicago.

 

pages: 538 words: 121,670

Republic, Lost: How Money Corrupts Congress--And a Plan to Stop It by Lawrence Lessig

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asset-backed security, banking crisis, carried interest, cognitive dissonance, corporate personhood, correlation does not imply causation, crony capitalism, David Brooks, Edward Glaeser, Filter Bubble, financial deregulation, financial innovation, financial intermediation, invisible hand, jimmy wales, Martin Wolf, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, place-making, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, regulatory arbitrage, rent-seeking, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, single-payer health, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, upwardly mobile, WikiLeaks, Zipcar

., “a substantial majority of academic research on the subject has shown that there is little connection between contributions and legislative votes or actions.”36 “We don’t see it” is not the same as “there is nothing to see.” Ansolabehere and his colleagues’ conclusions, moreover, are not uncontested. Some political scientists do believe that there is a link between money and results that can be demonstrated by the numbers alone.37 Thomas Stratmann, for example, conducted a meta-analysis of the same forty studies that Ansolabehere and his colleagues reviewed. That analysis rejected the conclusion that money does not affect results.38 Sanford Gordon and his colleagues find that an executive’s likelihood of contributing to political candidates is tied to how sensitive his or her salary is to firm profitability: the higher the sensitivity, the higher the likelihood of contributions, reinforcing the suggestion that the contribution is an investment rather than consumption.39 Consistent with this result, in a study of PAC contributions related to the 1984 Deficit Reduction Act, Sanjay Gupta and Charles Swenson found that firms whose managers’ compensation included earnings-based bonuses made larger PAC contributions, and that contributions generally were “positively associated with firm tax benefits.”40 Likewise, Atif Mian and his colleagues found that the voting patterns on the 2008 Emergency Economic Stabilization Act were strongly predicted by the amount of campaign contributions from the financial services industry.41 Not exclusively, but partially, and certainly enough for us to wonder whether the money is queering results more generally.

 

pages: 574 words: 164,509

Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies by Nick Bostrom

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agricultural Revolution, AI winter, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anthropic principle, anti-communist, artificial general intelligence, autonomous vehicles, barriers to entry, bioinformatics, brain emulation, cloud computing, combinatorial explosion, computer vision, cosmological constant, dark matter, DARPA: Urban Challenge, data acquisition, delayed gratification, demographic transition, Douglas Hofstadter, Drosophila, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, fear of failure, Flash crash, Flynn Effect, friendly AI, Gödel, Escher, Bach, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, information retrieval, interchangeable parts, iterative process, job automation, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Nash equilibrium, Netflix Prize, new economy, Norbert Wiener, NP-complete, nuclear winter, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, performance metric, phenotype, prediction markets, price stability, principal–agent problem, race to the bottom, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, reversible computing, social graph, speech recognition, Stanislav Petrov, statistical model, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, strong AI, superintelligent machines, supervolcano, technological singularity, technoutopianism, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Nature of the Firm, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, Turing machine, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, World Values Survey

., and Thomas, M. G. 2009. “Late Pleistocene Demography and the Appearance of Modern Human Behavior.” Science 324 (5932): 1298–1301. Price, Huw. 1991. “Agency and Probabilistic Causality.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42 (2): 157–76. Qian, M., Wang, D., Watkins, W. E., Gebski, V., Yan, Y. Q., Li, M., and Chen, Z. P. 2005. “The Effects of Iodine on Intelligence in Children: A Meta-Analysis of Studies Conducted in China.” Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition 14 (1): 32–42. Quine, Willard Van Orman, and Ullian, Joseph Silbert. 1978. The Web of Belief, ed. Richard Malin Ohmann, vol. 2. New York: Random House. Railton, Peter. 1986. “Facts and Values.” Philosophical Topics 14 (2): 5–31. Rajab, Moheeb Abu, Zarfoss, Jay, Monrose, Fabian, and Terzis, Andreas. 2006. “A Multifaceted Approach to Understanding the Botnet Phenomenon.”

 

pages: 432 words: 124,635

Happy City: Transforming Our Lives Through Urban Design by Charles Montgomery

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2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, agricultural Revolution, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon footprint, centre right, City Beautiful movement, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, East Village, edge city, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, experimental subject, Frank Gehry, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, license plate recognition, McMansion, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, New Urbanism, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, science of happiness, Seaside, Florida, Silicon Valley, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transit-oriented development, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban sprawl, wage slave, white flight, World Values Survey, Zipcar

Depression scales: The Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory, a questionnaire used by medical health professionals, is one of the most widely used tests in psychological assessment. The test consists of ten scales: Hypochondriasis, Depression, Hysteria, Psychopathic Deviate, Masculinity/Femininity, Paranoia, Psychasthenia, Schizophrenia, Hypomania, and Social Introversion. See Twenge, Jean M., “Birth Cohort Increases in Psychopathology Among Young Americans, 1938–2007: A Cross-Temporal Meta-analysis of the MMPI,” Clinical Psychology Review, 2010: 145–54. One in ten Americans: Olfson, Mark, and Steven C. Marcus, “National Patterns in Antidepressant Medication Treatment,” Archives of General Psychiatry, 2009: 848–56. “correlates of subjective well-being”: Wilkinson, Will, “In Pursuit of Happiness Research: Is it Reliable? What Does It Imply for Policy?” Policy Analysis, Cato Institute (April 11, 2007).

 

pages: 436 words: 141,321

Reinventing Organizations: A Guide to Creating Organizations Inspired by the Next Stage of Human Consciousness by Frederic Laloux, Ken Wilber

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Albert Einstein, augmented reality, blue-collar work, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, carbon footprint, conceptual framework, corporate social responsibility, crowdsourcing, failed state, future of work, hiring and firing, index card, interchangeable parts, invisible hand, job satisfaction, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Kenneth Rogoff, meta analysis, meta-analysis, pattern recognition, post-industrial society, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, randomized controlled trial, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, the market place, the scientific method, Tony Hsieh

As for levels and lines, Laloux states that “In their exploration, [many researchers] found consistently that humanity evolves in stages. Our knowledge about the stages of human development is now extremely robust. Two thinkers in particular—Ken Wilber and Jenny Wade—have done remarkable work comparing and contrasting all the major stage models, and have discovered strong convergence. … The way I portray the stages borrows mostly from Wade’s and Wilber’s meta-analysis, touching briefly upon different facets of every stage—the worldview, the needs, the cognitive development, the moral development.” Laloux rightly invites us to be extremely careful what we mean by “a stage.” As Howard Gardner made popular, and virtually every developmentalist agrees, there is not just one line of development with its stages or levels, but multiple lines or multiple intelligences, and each of those lines are quite different, with different characteristics and different stage structures.

 

The Panic Virus: The True Story Behind the Vaccine-Autism Controversy by Seth Mnookin

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Albert Einstein, AltaVista, British Empire, Cass Sunstein, cognitive dissonance, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, en.wikipedia.org, illegal immigration, index card, Isaac Newton, loss aversion, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mouse model, neurotypical, pattern recognition, placebo effect, Richard Thaler, Saturday Night Live, Solar eclipse in 1919, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions

American Journal of Public Health 2000;90(2): 199–207. ———. “Mercury, Vaccines, and Autism: One Controversy, Three Histories.” American Journal of Public Health 2008;98(2): 244–53. ———. “The Pertussis Vaccine Controversy in Great Britain, 1974–1986.” Vaccine 2003;21(25–26): 4003–10. Bakir, F. “Methylmercury Poisoning in Iraq.” Science 1973;181(4096): 230–41. Balicer, Ran, et al. “Is Childhood Vaccination Associated with Asthma? A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.” Pediatrics 2007;120(5): e1269–77. Ball, Philip. “Predicting Human Activity.” Nature 2010;465: 692. Banerjee, Abhijit. “A Simple Model of Herd Behavior.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 1992;107(3): 797–817. Barquet, Nicolau, and Pere Domingo. “The Triumph over the Most Terrible of the Ministers of Death.” Annals of Internal Medicine 1997;127(8): 635–42. Bell, Vaughan, et al.

 

pages: 497 words: 130,817

Pedigree: How Elite Students Get Elite Jobs by Lauren A. Rivera

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affirmative action, availability heuristic, barriers to entry, Donald Trump, fundamental attribution error, glass ceiling, income inequality, job satisfaction, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, performance metric, profit maximization, profit motive, school choice, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, The Wisdom of Crowds, unpaid internship, women in the workforce, young professional

Michael Huberman. 1994. Qualitative Data Analysis: An Expanded Sourcebook. 2nd ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Monroe, Kristen, Saba Ozyurt, Ted Wrigley, and Amy Alexander. 2008. “Gender Equality in Academia: Bad News from the Trenches, and Some Possible Solutions.” Perspectives on Politics 6:215–33. Montoya, Matthew, Robert Horton, and Jeffrey Kirchner. 2008. “Is Actual Similarity Necessary for Attraction? A Meta-Analysis of Actual and Perceived Similarity.” Journal of Social and Personal Relationships 25:899–922. Morgan, Harriet. 1990. “Sponsored and Contest Mobility Revisited: An Examination of Britain and the USA Today.” Oxford Review of Education 16:39–54. Morton, Samuel. 1839. Crania Americana; Or a Comparative View of the Skulls of Various Aboriginal Nations of North and South America. Philadelphia: J.

 

pages: 500 words: 145,005

Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics by Richard H. Thaler

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Albert Einstein, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Andrei Shleifer, Apple's 1984 Super Bowl advert, Atul Gawande, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Black-Scholes formula, capital asset pricing model, Cass Sunstein, Checklist Manifesto, choice architecture, clean water, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, constrained optimization, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, delayed gratification, diversification, diversified portfolio, Edward Glaeser, endowment effect, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, George Akerlof, hindsight bias, Home mortgage interest deduction, impulse control, index fund, invisible hand, Jean Tirole, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, late fees, law of one price, libertarian paternalism, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, market clearing, Mason jar, mental accounting, meta analysis, meta-analysis, More Guns, Less Crime, mortgage debt, Nash equilibrium, Nate Silver, New Journalism, nudge unit, payday loans, Ponzi scheme, presumed consent, pre–internet, principal–agent problem, prisoner's dilemma, profit maximization, random walk, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Coase, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, Steve Jobs, technology bubble, The Chicago School, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, ultimatum game, Walter Mischel

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Rozeff, Michael S., and William Kinney. 1976. “Capital Market Seasonality: The Case of Stock Returns.” Journal of Financial Economics 3, no. 4: 379–402. Russell, Thomas, and Richard H. Thaler. 1985. “The Relevance of Quasi Rationality in Competitive Markets.” American Economic Review 75, no. 5: 1071–82. Sally, David. 1995. “Conversation and Cooperation in Social Dilemmas: A Meta-Analysis of Experiments from 1958 to 1992.” Rationality and Society 7, no. 1: 58–92. Samuelson, Paul A. 1954. “The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure.” Review of Economics and Statistics 36, no. 4: 387–9. ———. 1963. “Risk and Uncertainty: A Fallacy of Large Numbers.” Scientia 98, no. 612: 108. ———. 1979. “Why We Should Not Make Mean Log of Wealth Big Though Years to Act Are Long.” Journal of Banking and Finance 3, no. 4: 305–7.

 

pages: 401 words: 119,488

Smarter Faster Better: The Secrets of Being Productive in Life and Business by Charles Duhigg

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Air France Flight 447, Asperger Syndrome, Atul Gawande, Black Swan, cognitive dissonance, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, epigenetics, Erik Brynjolfsson, framing effect, hiring and firing, index card, John von Neumann, knowledge worker, Lean Startup, Malcom McLean invented shipping containers, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, Saturday Night Live, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, statistical model, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, theory of mind, Toyota Production System, Yom Kippur War

Sullivan and Michael Lewis, “Contextual Determinants of Anger and Other Negative Expressions in Young Infants,” Developmental Psychology 39, no. 4 (2003): 693. freedom to choose Leotti and Delgado, “Inherent Reward of Choice.” Psychological Science in 2011 Ibid. autonomy and self-determination Erika A. Patall, Harris Cooper, and Jorgianne Civey Robinson, “The Effects of Choice on Intrinsic Motivation and Related Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis of Research Findings,” Psychological Bulletin 134, no. 2 (2008): 270; Deborah J. Stipek and John R. Weisz, “Perceived Personal Control and Academic Achievement,” Review of Educational Research 51, no. 1 (1981): 101–37; Steven W. Abrahams, “Goal-Setting and Intrinsic Motivation: The Effects of Choice and Performance Frame-of-Reference” (PhD diss., Columbia University, 1989); Teresa M. Amabile and Judith Gitomer, “Children’s Artistic Creativity Effects of Choice in Task Materials,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 10, no. 2 (1984): 209–15; D’Arcy A.

 

pages: 473 words: 121,895

Come as You Are: The Surprising New Science That Will Transform Your Sex Life by Emily Nagoski Ph.d.

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cognitive dissonance, correlation does not imply causation, delayed gratification, meta analysis, meta-analysis, placebo effect, Skype, Snapchat, spaced repetition, the scientific method

Chris, Neils G. Waller, and Kelly A. Brennan. “An Item-Response Theory Analysis of Self-Report Measures of Adult Attachment.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78, no. 2 (2000): 350–65. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.78.2.350. Frühauf, Sarah, Heike Gerger, Hannah Maren Schmidt, Thomas Munder, and Jürgen Barth. “Efficacy of Psychological Interventions for Sexual Dysfunction: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.” Archives of Sexual Behavior 42, no. 6 (2013): 915–33. Fulu, Emma, Xian Warner, Stephanie Miedema, Rachel Jewkes, Tim Roselli, and James Lang. Why Do Some Men Use Violence Against Women and How Can We Prevent It? Quantitative Findings from the United Nations Multi-Country Study on Men and Violence in Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok: UNDP, UNFPA, UN Women and UNV, 2013. Gaffney, D. “Established and Emerging PTSD Treatments.”

 

pages: 410 words: 114,005

Black Box Thinking: Why Most People Never Learn From Their Mistakes--But Some Do by Matthew Syed

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Alfred Russel Wallace, Arthur Eddington, Atul Gawande, Black Swan, British Empire, call centre, Captain Sullenberger Hudson, Checklist Manifesto, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, corporate governance, credit crunch, deliberate practice, double helix, epigenetics, fear of failure, fundamental attribution error, Henri Poincaré, hindsight bias, Isaac Newton, iterative process, James Dyson, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Joseph Schumpeter, Lean Startup, meta analysis, meta-analysis, minimum viable product, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, Silicon Valley, six sigma, spinning jenny, Steve Jobs, the scientific method, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, Toyota Production System, Wall-E, Yom Kippur War

In 1996, almost twenty years after Finckenauer’s RCT, the New York Times reported that the original program at Rahway was at the height of its popularity, hosting around ten groups per week or 12,500 kids per year. But then in 2002 the Campbell Collaboration arrived on the scene. This is a global, nonprofit organization devoted to evidence-based policy. They conducted what is called a “systematic review.” This is where the data from all the randomized trials are collated into a single spreadsheet. By pooling the results from all the individual trials (seven were used in the so-called meta-analysis), a systematic review represents the gold standard when it comes to scientific evidence. It is the ultimate failure test.18 Forgive me if you know what’s coming, but the results were emphatic. Scared Straight doesn’t work. It increases crime. Some research indicates that this increase can be as high as 28 percent.19 In exquisitely understated language, the authors effectively damned its entire rationale: “We conclude that programs like Scared Straight are likely to have a harmful effect and increase delinquency . . .

 

pages: 527 words: 147,690

Terms of Service: Social Media and the Price of Constant Connection by Jacob Silverman

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23andMe, 4chan, A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace, Airbnb, airport security, Amazon Mechanical Turk, augmented reality, Brian Krebs, California gold rush, call centre, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, don't be evil, Edward Snowden, feminist movement, Filter Bubble, Firefox, Flash crash, game design, global village, Google Chrome, Google Glasses, hive mind, income inequality, informal economy, information retrieval, Internet of things, Jaron Lanier, jimmy wales, Kevin Kelly, Kickstarter, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, late capitalism, license plate recognition, life extension, Lyft, Mark Zuckerberg, Mars Rover, Marshall McLuhan, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Minecraft, move fast and break things, national security letter, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, Occupy movement, optical character recognition, payday loans, Peter Thiel, postindustrial economy, prediction markets, pre–internet, price discrimination, price stability, profit motive, quantitative hedge fund, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, recommendation engine, rent control, RFID, ride hailing / ride sharing, self-driving car, sentiment analysis, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Snapchat, social graph, social web, sorting algorithm, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, telemarketer, transportation-network company, Turing test, Uber and Lyft, Uber for X, universal basic income, unpaid internship, women in the workforce, Y Combinator, Zipcar

I’ll proceed to follow her, of course, if I don’t already. Then I’ll start feeling very guilty if I don’t retweet one of her posts.” Each exchange requires a complex cost-benefit analysis, one which, for anyone who has experienced this for himself, may seem wildly disproportionate to the conversation at hand. Just as metadata (that is, the number of retweets or likes) can matter more than the message itself, this process of meta-analysis, of deciphering the uncertain power dynamic between two people, can seem more important than the conversation on which it’s based. PHOTOGRAPHY AS A MEANS OF CONSUMPTION Maybe Alford would be more comfortable with photographs, which, in their vivid particularity, seem to demand less of a response. They can live on their own. We don’t need to justify them. Photographs “furnish evidence,” as Susan Sontag said.

 

pages: 387 words: 120,155

Inside the Nudge Unit: How Small Changes Can Make a Big Difference by David Halpern

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Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, availability heuristic, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, centre right, choice architecture, cognitive dissonance, collaborative consumption, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, endowment effect, happiness index / gross national happiness, hindsight bias, illegal immigration, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, libertarian paternalism, market design, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, nudge unit, peer-to-peer lending, pension reform, presumed consent, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Rory Sutherland, Simon Kuznets, skunkworks, the built environment, theory of mind, traffic fines, World Values Survey

., and Mourato, S. (2013), ‘Happiness is greater in natural environments’, Global Environmental Change, 23(5): 992–1000. 12 Dunn, E. W., Gilbert, D. T., and Wilson, T. D. (2011), ‘If money doesn’t make you happy, then you probably aren’t spending it right’, Journal of Consumer Psychology, 21(2): 115–25. Subsequently expanded into the book Happy Money. 13 See Halpern, D., (2005), Social Capital, Polity Press, for a summary of the literature. For a more recent meta-analysis see Holt-Lunstad et al., including 148 independent studies which used data from over 300,000 individuals followed for an average of 7.5 years. This shows that individuals with adequate social support experience a 50 per cent increase in the odds of survival than their counterparts with poorer social connections. Holt-Lunstad, J., Smith, T. B., and Layton, J. B. (2010), ‘Social relationships and mortality risk: a meta-analytic review’, PLoS medicine, 7(7), e1000316. 14 Pennebaker, J.

 

pages: 468 words: 123,823

A People's History of Poverty in America by Stephen Pimpare

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affirmative action, British Empire, car-free, clean water, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deindustrialization, delayed gratification, dumpster diving, East Village, Frederick Winslow Taylor, George Gilder, hiring and firing, Howard Zinn, illegal immigration, impulse control, income inequality, index card, Jane Jacobs, low skilled workers, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, New Urbanism, payday loans, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, union organizing, urban renewal, War on Poverty, white flight, working poor, Works Progress Administration

According to a homelessness survey by the U.S. Conference of Mayors, 41 percent of homeless Americans were single men; 40 percent were families with children; two-thirds were single-parent families; over one in five were mentally disabled; 10 percent were veterans (other studies show 25 percent or more); and almost one-third were drug- or alcohol-dependent. Fully half were African American.56 One meta-analysis of sixty surveys conducted during the 1980s found that, on average, between one-fourth and one-third of all homeless people had been in a psychiatric hospital, undergone detox, had a current mental illness or alcohol addiction, or described themselves as having no friends. Over 40 percent had been in jail, prison, or both. They were more likely to have been raised in foster homes.57 And according to a study in Los Angeles, 42 to 77 percent of homeless people do not receive benefits they are eligible for.58 It’s a hard life, and a dangerous one.

 

pages: 651 words: 180,162

Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Air France Flight 447, Andrei Shleifer, banking crisis, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, discrete time, double entry bookkeeping, Emanuel Derman, epigenetics, financial independence, Flash crash, Gary Taubes, Gini coefficient, Henri Poincaré, high net worth, Ignaz Semmelweis: hand washing, informal economy, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Hargreaves, Jane Jacobs, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, Lao Tzu, Long Term Capital Management, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, mandelbrot fractal, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microbiome, moral hazard, mouse model, Norbert Wiener, pattern recognition, placebo effect, Ponzi scheme, principal–agent problem, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, Ralph Nader, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, rent control, Republic of Letters, Ronald Reagan, Rory Sutherland, Silicon Valley, six sigma, spinning jenny, statistical model, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, stochastic process, stochastic volatility, The Great Moderation, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, urban planning, Yogi Berra, Zipf's Law

Chapitre XXVIII. Specific Medical Topics Note that the concern of this author is not evidence, but rather absence of it and how researchers manage such a problem. The focus is in detecting missed convexities. Effectiveness of low-calorie sweeteners: One gets plenty of information by looking at studies by defenders with vested interests. De la Hunty et al. (2006) shows “advantages” to aspartame, with a meta-analysis, but focusing on the calorie-in calorie-out method, not overall weight gains. But reading it closely uncovers that the core is missing: “Some compensation for the substituted energy occurs but this is only about one-third of the energy replaced and is probably [emphasis mine] less than when using soft drinks sweetened with aspartame. Nevertheless these compensation values are derived from short-term studies.”

 

pages: 879 words: 233,093

The Empathic Civilization: The Race to Global Consciousness in a World in Crisis by Jeremy Rifkin

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agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, British Empire, carbon footprint, collaborative economy, death of newspapers, delayed gratification, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, feminist movement, global village, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, interchangeable parts, Internet Archive, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, labour mobility, Mahatma Gandhi, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, planetary scale, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, supply-chain management, surplus humans, the medium is the message, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, transaction costs, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, working poor, World Values Survey

Murray, Carol Mertens, and E. Richard Dustin. “Student Self-Esteem and the School System: Perceptions and Implications. Journal of Education Research Vol. 89. No. 5. 1996. pp. 289-290. 63 Twenge. Generation Me. p. 55. 64 Ibid. p. 63. 65 CBS News. The Class of 2000. Simon and Schuster eBook, 2001. p. 64. 66 Twenge, Jean M., and W. Keith Campbell. “Age and Birth Cohort Differences in Self-Esteem: A Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis. Personality and Social Psychology Review. Vol. 5. pp. 321-344. 67 Newsom, C. R., et al. “Changes in Adolescent Response Patterns on the MMPI/MMPI-A Across Four Decades. Journal of Personality Assessment. Vol. 81. 2003. pp. 74-84. 68 Pew Research Center. “A Portrait of Generation Next: How Young People View Their Lives, Futures and Politics.” January 9, 2007. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/278/a-portrait-of-generation-next 69 Winograd, Morley, and Michael D.

 

pages: 798 words: 240,182

The Transhumanist Reader by Max More, Natasha Vita-More

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23andMe, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, artificial general intelligence, augmented reality, Bill Joy: nanobots, bioinformatics, brain emulation, Buckminster Fuller, cellular automata, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, combinatorial explosion, conceptual framework, Conway's Game of Life, cosmological principle, data acquisition, discovery of DNA, Drosophila, en.wikipedia.org, experimental subject, Extropian, fault tolerance, Flynn Effect, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Frank Gehry, friendly AI, game design, germ theory of disease, hypertext link, impulse control, index fund, John von Neumann, joint-stock company, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, life extension, Louis Pasteur, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Network effects, Norbert Wiener, P = NP, pattern recognition, phenotype, positional goods, prediction markets, presumed consent, Ray Kurzweil, reversible computing, RFID, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, silicon-based life, Singularitarianism, stem cell, stochastic process, superintelligent machines, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, technological singularity, Ted Nelson, telepresence, telepresence robot, telerobotics, the built environment, The Coming Technological Singularity, the scientific method, The Wisdom of Crowds, transaction costs, Turing machine, Turing test, Upton Sinclair, Vernor Vinge, Von Neumann architecture, Whole Earth Review, women in the workforce

Heroic rescue workers who endanger their lives on a dangerous mission are admired because we assume that they are putting at risk something that most people would be very reluctant to risk, their own survival. For some three decades, economists have attempted to estimate individuals’ preferences over mortality and morbidity risk in labor and product markets. While the tradeoff estimates vary considerably between studies, one recent meta-analysis puts the median value of the value of a statistical life for prime-aged workers to about $7 million in the United States (Viscusi and Aldy 2003). A study by the EU’s Environment Directorates-General recommends the use of a value in the interval €0.9 to €3.5 million (Johansson 2002). Recent studies by health economists indicate that improvements in the health status of the U.S. population over the twentieth century have made as large a contribution to raising the standards of living as all other forms of consumption growth combined (Murphy and Topel 2003; Nordhaus 2003).

 

pages: 661 words: 187,613

The Language Instinct: How the Mind Creates Language by Steven Pinker

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Albert Einstein, cloud computing, David Attenborough, double helix, Drosophila, elephant in my pajamas, finite state, illegal immigration, Loebner Prize, Maui Hawaii, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, out of africa, P = NP, phenotype, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, speech recognition, Steven Pinker, theory of mind, transatlantic slave trade, Turing machine, Turing test, Yogi Berra

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102 (27): 9643–48. Sims-Williams, P. 1998. Genetics, linguistics, and prehistory: Thinking big and thinking straight. Antiquity 72:505–527. The SLI Consortium. 2002. A genomewide scan identifies two novel loci involved in Specific Language Impairment. American Journal of Human Genetics 70:384–398. Stromswold, K. 2001. The heritability of language: A review and meta-analysis of twin and adoption studies. Language 77:647–723. Tomasello, M. 2003. Constructing a language: A usage-based theory of language acquisition. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. van der Lely, H. K. J. 2005. Domain-specific cognitive systems: Insight from Grammatical Specific Language Impairment. Trends in Cognitive Science 9 (2): 53–59. Vargha-Khadem, F., Watkins, K. E., Price, C.

 

pages: 892 words: 91,000

Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies by Tim Koller, McKinsey, Company Inc., Marc Goedhart, David Wessels, Barbara Schwimmer, Franziska Manoury

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air freight, barriers to entry, Basel III, BRICs, business climate, business process, capital asset pricing model, capital controls, cloud computing, compound rate of return, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, discounted cash flows, distributed generation, diversified portfolio, energy security, equity premium, index fund, iterative process, Long Term Capital Management, market bubble, market friction, meta analysis, meta-analysis, new economy, p-value, performance metric, Ponzi scheme, price anchoring, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, shareholder value, six sigma, sovereign wealth fund, speech recognition, technology bubble, time value of money, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, value at risk, yield curve, zero-coupon bond

Travlos, “Corporate Takeover Bids, Methods of Payment, and Bidding Firms’ Stock Return,” Journal of Finance 42 (1987): 943–963. The result was statistically significant in Sirower but not significant in Travlos. 11 Morck et al., “Do Managerial Objectives Drive Bad Acquisitions?”; and D. K. Datta, V. K. Narayanan, and G. E. Pinches, “Factors Influencing Wealth Creation from Mergers and Acquisitions: A MetaAnalysis,” Strategic Management Journal 13 (1992): 67–84. 12 See, for example, L. Capron and J. Shen, “Acquisitions of Private versus Public Firms: Private Information, Target Selection and Acquirer Returns” (INSEAD Working Paper Series, 2005); and P. Draper and K. Paudyal, “Acquisitions: Public versus Private,” European Financial Management 12, no. 1 (2006): 57–80. ARCHETYPES FOR VALUE-CREATING ACQUISITIONS 607 r The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the acquirer relative to the target’s P/E r The relatedness of the acquirer and the target, based on Standard Indus- trial Classification (SIC) codes This empirical evidence is important because it shows that there is no magic formula to make an acquisition successful.