Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

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pages: 417 words: 109,367

The End of Doom: Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First Century by Ronald Bailey

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3D printing, additive manufacturing, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Asilomar, autonomous vehicles, Cass Sunstein, Climatic Research Unit, Commodity Super-Cycle, conceptual framework, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, diversified portfolio, double helix, energy security, failed state, financial independence, Gary Taubes, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, knowledge economy, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Naomi Klein, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, pattern recognition, peak oil, phenotype, planetary scale, price stability, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, Stewart Brand, Tesla Model S, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, women in the workforce, yield curve

See International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Iler, Stuart income increase climate adaptation and climate mitigation and fertility rate decline and intergenerational equity and open-access social orders and trend overview India biotech crops in climate change negotiations with farmer suicide in fertility rate and life expectancy in Green Revolution in oil consumption patterns for Orissa cyclone Industrial Revolution industrialization commodity super-cycles and fertility rate decline and innovation trial and error in pollution correlation to Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) Inhofe, James innovation cognitive biases against elitist resistance to fertility rate decline and free-market capitalist drive for population projections and positive possibilities with precautionary resistance to trial and error for innovation sectors and types additive manufacturing autonomous vehicles biofuel biotech crops cellular climate geoengineering DDT electric vehicle energy, clean energy efficiency food production Green Revolution lasers metal nanotechnology nuclear power oil pharmaceutical resource efficiency solar power insulin Intellectual Ventures intergenerational equity Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate adaptation on climate mitigation on extinction on natural disasters on natural gas efficiency on ocean acidification on temperature increase on water privatization International Energy Agency (IEA) International Food Policy Research Institute International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) International Monetary Fund International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Ioannidis, John IPCC. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iran ITIF. See Information Technology and Innovation Foundation IUCN. See International Union for the Conservation of Nature Jacks, David Jacobson, Mark Jaggard, Keith Jenkins, Martin Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Kahan, Dan Kazman, Sam Kennedy, Ted Kershen, Drew Klare, Michael Klein, Naomi Kloor, Keith Knobloch, Kevin Kricher, John Kron, Thomas Kyoto Protocol Lackey, Robert Lackner, Klaus Langmuir, Irving lasers Leffall, LaSalle D., Jr.

destruction caused by Superstorm Sandy: Greenpeace, “Hurricane Sandy = Climate Change,” Extreme Weather and Climate Change, 2013. www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/campaigns/global-warming-and-energy/Extreme-Weather-and-Climate-Change/. hurricanes, typhoons, hailstorms, or tornadoes: IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/. economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, November 2014, 16. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf. “there has been little change in drought”: Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, and Michael Roderick, “Little Change in Global Drought over the Past 60 Years.”

What the Science Says The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing; the world has warmed; glaciers are melting; and the seas are rising. These facts are not scientifically in dispute. As Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, the 2013 report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), states: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.” The report adds, “Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.” These findings were restated and bolstered in November 2014 in the IPCC’s Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. The vast majority of climate researchers agree that man-made global warming is now under way. The amounts of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, gases that tend to warm the atmosphere (greenhouse gases or GHG), are at levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.


pages: 391 words: 99,963

The Weather of the Future by Heidi Cullen

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2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, air freight, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, availability heuristic, back-to-the-land, bank run, California gold rush, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, energy security, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, mass immigration, megacity, millennium bug, out of africa, Silicon Valley, smart cities, trade route, urban planning, Y2K

Held is a senior research scientist at a division of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): its Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), a prominent climate modeling center in Princeton, New Jersey. Few people understand the complexity of rainfall in the Sahel better than Held. A member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Held served as a lead author of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report chapter on regional climate projections. The IPCC’s regional projections use fourteen state-of-the-art climate models to provide a glimpse into the future. The GFDL climate model is one of the best in the world. And if you believe this model’s projections for the Sahel, you’ll be very worried about the future. Held knows why the GFDL model behaves as it does; he just doesn’t know if the real world will behave the same way.

These were serious people, people who were not prone to exaggeration. And the data spoke for itself,” Rahman says. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the scientific group responsible for building the data and models that convinced Rahman, has issued a very strong statement about the changes that are taking place in Bangladesh. Temperatures in Bangladesh have already increased. The Fourth Assessment report indicates an increasing trend of about 1.8°F in May and 0.9°F in November during the fourteen-year period from 1985 to 1998. Annual average temperature in South Asia (5°N to 30°N, 65°E to 100°E) is projected to increase 3.2°F by 2050 and 5.6°F by 2100, according to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The seasonal values for South Asia are shown in the accompanying table. Temperatures in Bangladesh are projected to increase 1.8°F and 2.5°F by 2030 and 2050, respectively, according to a recent assessment by the Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS).

Arrhenius calculated how much the temperature of the Earth would drop if the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was halved; he also calculated the temperature increase to be expected from a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere—a rise of about 8°F. More than a century later, the estimates from state-of-the-art climate models doing the same calculations to determine the increase in temperature due to a doubling of the CO2 concentration show that the calculation by Arrhenius was in the right ballpark. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesized the results from eighteen climate models used by groups around the world to estimate climate sensitivity and its uncertainty. They estimated that a doubling of CO2 would lead to an increase in global average temperature of about 5.4°F, with an uncertainty spanning the range from about 3.6°F to 8.1°F. It’s amazing that Arrhenius, doing his calculations by hand and with very few data, came so close to the much more detailed calculations that can be done today.


pages: 364 words: 101,193

Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas

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accounting loophole / creative accounting, Climatic Research Unit, Deng Xiaoping, failed state, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Live Aid, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, price stability, South China Sea, supervolcano

The scenes lingered in my mind even as the city was emptied and the bedraggled survivors of New Orleans and the wider Gulf region were packed off to temporary shelters in Texas and elsewhere, where half a million still remain at the time of writing: arguably the first climate refugees, displaced permanently from their homes. I kept wondering: where next? What will happen as the world warms bit by bit? With up to six degrees Celsius of global warming on the cards over the next hundred years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), what will happen to our coasts, our towns, our forests, our rivers, our croplands and our mountains? Will we all, as some environmentalists suggest, be reduced to eking out a living from the shattered remains of civilisation in Arctic refuges, or will life go on much as before-if only a little warmer? As I pondered these questions, I had already begun to sift through the latest scientific literature on global warming.

In retrospect, this is perhaps surprising: it contained clear evidence that a climate only a degree or so warmer than today could melt enough Greenland ice to drown coastal cities around the globe, cities that are home to tens of millions of people. Nor was it just a one-off: more recent work confirms that Greenland's contribution to the higher sea levels of the Eemian was indeed somewhere between 2 and 5 metres. The 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did conclude that higher temperatures would eventually melt the Greenland ice sheet-but only over centuries to millennia, and very little contribution from Greenland was factored into the twenty-first-century sea level rise projections of between 9 and 88 cm. As warnings go, it wasn't a terribly urgent one: most people have trouble caring about what happens 100 years hence, let alone bothering about whether their distant descendants in the year 3000 might be getting their feet wet.

D. and Billie 184 Hamilton, Dr Gordon 69 Hansen, James 27, 65-6, 67, 70, 71-2, 115, 166 Harappan civilisation 174, 175 Hardin, Garrett 264 Harrison, Gary 76-7 Harvard University 204 Hawaiian 92 Hayward, Dr Alan 110, 111 heat 61, 122-3, 193, 197, 209-10, 231 heatstroke 57-8, 62 heatwaves 6, 186, 197, 202 Alpine 30, 31, 177 Australia 173 Europe 57-63, 150, 178-9, 202 winter 180 Helheim Glacier, Greenland 68, 69 Higgins, Craig 29 Higgins, John 204 High Tide xiii-ix, xv, 46-7, 77, 81 Hilbert, David 33-4 Hill, Robert 108 Himalayas 80, 108, 138, 173 Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove 35-6, 37, 38 Hoerling, Martin 21, 102-3, 104 Holland, Marika 26-7 Holocene 20, 21, 24, 66, 107 Hong Kong 171 housing 183, 272, 276 Houston, Texas 125-8 Howat, Ian 67, 68, 69 Huntingford, Chris 273-4 hurricanes 42-6, 125-8, 129, 146 ancient 219, 229-30 Catarina 42-3 Europe 44-5, 149, 185 Floyd 146 formation 42-6 Galveston 1900 126 hypercanes 230 Katrina xiv, 38, 42, 46, 126, 166 modelling 106 Odessa 126, 127 sea temperature and 126, 229-30 storm surges xiv, 145-9, 165, 182 strong 125-8, 219, 230 Rita 46 Vince 44 Wilma 46 hydroelectricity 17-18, 58, 62, 84-5, 87, 140, 178, 181 hydrogen sulphide 233, 237 hydrological cycle 224 ice ages xvii-xviii, 6, 9, 10, 24, 135 and El Niño 114 modelling 106, 251 ice-albedo feedback 28, 70-1 ice caps 26-7, 64-72, 81, 130-1, 197, 208, 220, 246 ice cores 6, 14, 15-16, 64, 81 ice sheets 64-72, 129, 130, 131, 146, 166, 167-70, 176, 193 ice shelves 168-9 icebergs 68, 113 Iceland 130-1 Inconvenient Truth, An 263 India xxii, 77-80, 135-7, 173 agricultural 78-9, 137, 173 ancient 218 drought 173 Environment Ministry 78 famine 78-9 monsoon 21, 52, 79, 135-7, 173, 209, 219 water table 173 warming 102, 104 Indian Ocean 136 Indonesia xvii, 118-19, 121, 136-7, 206, 211, 276 Indus, River 137-42, 174 Industrial Revolution 112 Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 77 interglacial, Eemian 52, 63-6, 107 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) xiv, xx-xxi, 13, 24, 65, 66, 70, 71, 72, 77, 118, 130, 158, 173, 217, 225, 246, 251, 256 International Energy Agency (IEA) 258 intertropical convergence zone 151, 193 International Rice Research Institute 157 Inuit peoples 76, 77 irrigation 8, 58, 82, 86, 140, 144, 158, 196 Italy 44, 63 Jacobshavn Isbrae glacier, Greenland 68 James Cook University 33 Japan 194 Jequetepeque River 82, 83 jet streams 28 Jones, Brian 63 Jones, Chris 273-4 Joshi, S.


pages: 258 words: 77,601

Everything Under the Sun: Toward a Brighter Future on a Small Blue Planet by Ian Hanington

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agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, Exxon Valdez, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hedy Lamarr / George Antheil, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), oil shale / tar sands, stem cell, sustainable-tourism, the scientific method, University of East Anglia, urban planning, urban sprawl

In 2010, government negotiators from around the world met in Busan, South Korea, where they approved the creation of a new global science body to act as an “early warning system” to inform government leaders on major biodiversity declines and to identify what governments must do to reverse these damaging trends. This global biodiversity scientific body is modelled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which, through science, has catalyzed worldwide understanding of and action on global warming. Despite the efforts of huge multinational oil companies to discredit its work, the IPCC has compiled the best available science on the causes and impacts of global warming and charted the most effective ways for us to solve the problem. In doing so, it has ensured that climate change has remained a priority for governments, and it has proven to be an invaluable tool to help the media understand and report on the issue—independent of politics or PR spin. We hope the newly created “IPCC for nature” will play a similar role in educating, inspiring, and mobilizing policy-makers and the public to take decisive action to stem the biodiversity crisis.

Science is clear about the threat of climate change WHY DOES THE public often pay more attention to climate-change deniers than climate scientists? Why do denial arguments that have been thoroughly debunked still show up regularly in the media? Some researchers from New York’s Fordham University may have found some answers. David Budescu and his colleagues asked 223 volunteers to read sentences from reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The responses revealed some fundamental misunderstandings about how science works. Science is a process. Scientists gather and compare evidence, then construct hypotheses that “make sense” of the data and suggest further tests of the hypothesis. Other scientists try to find flaws in the hypothesis with their own data or experiments. Eventually, a body of knowledge builds, and scientists become more and more certain of their theories.

The University of East Anglia has since posted its research and data online, and all of the emails in question have also been posted. As for criticisms of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s global assessment of climate change, a review found that despite “a very small number of near-trivial errors in about five hundred pages,” the report contained “no errors that would undermine the main conclusions.” Yet another independent study supported Pennsylvania State University climatologist Michael Mann. Deniers have been attacking Mann’s research for years. Another blow to the deniers’ arsenal came when London’s Sunday Times was forced in June 2010 to run an apology and retraction for an article it published in January questioning the findings of the IPCC report on rainfall changes in the Amazon. The Times admitted that it had misrepresented the views of climate researcher Simon Lewis and that, contrary to its article, the findings of the IPCC report were backed by peer-reviewed research.


pages: 692 words: 127,032

Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America by Shawn Lawrence Otto

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affirmative action, Albert Einstein, anthropic principle, Berlin Wall, Brownian motion, carbon footprint, Cepheid variable, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, commoditize, cosmological constant, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Dean Kamen, desegregation, double helix, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fudge factor, ghettoisation, Harlow Shapley and Heber Curtis, Harvard Computers: women astronomers, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, shareholder value, sharing economy, smart grid, Solar eclipse in 1919, stem cell, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, transaction costs, University of East Anglia, War on Poverty, white flight, Winter of Discontent, working poor, yellow journalism, zero-sum game

Life Under a Cloud: American Anxiety about the Atom. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1999. p. 117. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Chapter 10.6.2: The Himalayan Glaciers. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Introduction to the Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-intro.pdf. World Bank. Countries and Economies. n.d. http://data.worldbank.org/country. Xu, J., et al.

McClatchy Newspapers, December 15, 2009. www.mcclatchydc.com/2009/12/15/v-print/80663/commentary-climategate-is-a-lesson.html. [opinion] 74. Sensenbrenner, F. J. Sensenbrenner Urges IPCC to Exclude Climategate Scientists. Letters from the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, December 8, 2009. http://republicans.globalwarming.house.gov/Press/PRArticle.aspx?NewsID=2749. 75. Palin, S. Sarah Palin on the Politicization of the Copenhagen Climate Conference. Washington Post, December 9, 2009. www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/08/AR2009120803402.html. 76. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Chapter 10.6.2: The Himalayan Glaciers. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch10s10-6-2.html. 77. Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Dale, 192–93, 196–97 Hall, Wilson, 311 Halpern, Michael, 149 Handler, Philip, 104 Hansen, James, 16 Hardin, Garrett, 247–48, 268 Harris, Sam, 280–81 Hartwig, Robert, 264 Hasnain, Syed, 211 Hayward, Tony, 266 H-bomb, 81, 92, 109 Health care reform and bill, 200, 225 Hedde, Carl, 264 Henry VIII, 45 Hertzsprung, Ejnar, 66 Highway system, 82 Hitchcock, Albert Spear, 60 Hitler, Adolf, 73–74 Hobbes, Thomas, 25, 51, 133 Hockey stick graph, 198–99, 201, 214 Holdren, John, 199–200, 228–29 Holt, Rush, 14–15, 149 Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 224–26, 255 Homosexuality, 290 Hooker telescope, 65–66 Höppe, Peter, 264 Horace, 92 Horowitz, David, 31 Hoyle, Fred, 70 Hubble, Edwin, 61, 65–66, 68, 70–72, 104, 119–20, 309 Hubble, John, 265 Hubble’s Law, 69 Hubble Space Telescope, 71 Hubris, 98, 138 Hughes, Malcolm, 201 Huizenga, Bill, 222 Humason, Milton, 67–71 Hume, David, 52–53, 247, 249, 252 Hurricane Katrina joke, 296–97 Hussein, Saddam, 11 Hydrogen bomb (H-bomb), 81, 92, 109 I Ideas, empowering, 56–57 Id, Jeff, 201 Ignorance, 252 Impetus, concept of, 118–19 Inclusiveness, 126, 238 Inconvenient Truth, An (Gore documentary), 199, 237–38 Individualism, 249–50, 252, 273–74 Inductive reasoning, 44, 67 Indulgences, 42 Inhofe, James, 196, 214–16, 221 Innovation, 57–59 Insurance companies, 263–67 Intellectual flight, 56, 75 Intellectual honesty, 44, 116, 138, 177, 289 ”Intelligent design,” 15, 168–69, 289 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 199, 212–13 Intuitive knowledge, 50, 53 “Invisible hand” theory, 3–4, 87, 301–2 IPCC, 199, 212–13 J Jackson, Nancy, 239–40 James, King, 45 Jefferson, Thomas, 3, 34, 37, 46–49, 51–53, 57, 59, 87, 293–94 Johnson, Lyndon B., 96, 226–27 Jones, John, 173 Jones, Phil, 201–3, 215 Judeo-Christian ethic, 14–15 Just world belief, 282–84 K Kadanoff, Leo, 148–49 Kamen, Dean, 287, 294 Kant, Immanuel, 107 Keeling, Charles, 188–89 Keeling curve, 188, 230–31 Kempthorne, Dirk, 196–97 Kennedy, John F., 93–96, 98 Kennedy, Robert F.


pages: 370 words: 102,823

Rethinking Capitalism: Economics and Policy for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth by Michael Jacobs, Mariana Mazzucato

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3D printing, balance sheet recession, banking crisis, basic income, Bernie Sanders, Bretton Woods, business climate, Carmen Reinhart, central bank independence, collaborative economy, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Detroit bankruptcy, double entry bookkeeping, Elon Musk, endogenous growth, energy security, eurozone crisis, factory automation, facts on the ground, fiat currency, Financial Instability Hypothesis, financial intermediation, forward guidance, full employment, G4S, Gini coefficient, Growth in a Time of Debt, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, investor state dispute settlement, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, mass incarceration, Mont Pelerin Society, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, new economy, non-tariff barriers, paradox of thrift, Paul Samuelson, price stability, private sector deleveraging, quantitative easing, QWERTY keyboard, railway mania, rent-seeking, road to serfdom, savings glut, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, the built environment, The Great Moderation, The Spirit Level, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, total factor productivity, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, universal basic income, very high income

., ‘Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet’, Science, vol. 347, no. 6223, 13 February 2015, http://science.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855 (accessed 12 April 2016). 32 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ (accessed 12 April 2016). 33 The first assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was published in 1990. See https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_first_assessment_1990_wg1.shtml (accessed 12 April 2016). 34 T. O. Wiedmann et al., ‘The material footprint of nations’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of America, vol. 112, no. 20, 2015, pp. 6271–6, http://doi:10.1073/pnas.1220362110 (accessed 12 April 2016). 35 There is a lively debate among monetary theorists over whether governments, as opposed to central banks, do in practice create new money through government spending, or whether they have to acquire bank-credit money through taxation or borrowing prior to government spending.

In the transition to a low-carbon future, it may prove easier to drive change than to predict it. Notes 1 World Meteorological Organisation, Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, no. 11, 9 November 2015, http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/ghg-bulletin_11_en.pdf (accessed 14 April 2016). 2 IPCC, ‘Summary for policymakers’, in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ (accessed 14 April 2016). 3 Ibid. 4 Ibid. 5 Dietz and Stern show that accounting for the endogeneity of growth leads to a much stronger case for climate policy action than indicated in standard economic models. In this chapter we extend this basic logic to argue that accounting for the drivers of growth and innovation affords the opportunity to dramatically lower the costs of reducing emissions.

Unless stronger action is taken to curb and reverse rising emissions—not just of carbon dioxide, but also of methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—the world is with high probability heading for warming beyond 2°C. On current trends, the temperature rise could exceed 4°C by the end of the century.2 The economic impacts of warming above 2°C would be profound. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has listed the likely impacts. These include a higher incidence of extreme weather events (such as flooding, storm surges and droughts), leading to the risk of a breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services, particularly in coastal regions and cities; a heightened risk of food insecurity and breakdown of food systems resulting from changes in rainfall and reduced agricultural productivity; increased ill health and mortality from extreme heat events and food- and water-borne diseases; greater risks of displacement of peoples and conflict; and faster loss of terrestrial and marine ecosystems and species.


pages: 523 words: 111,615

The Economics of Enough: How to Run the Economy as if the Future Matters by Diane Coyle

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accounting loophole / creative accounting, affirmative action, bank run, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, bonus culture, Branko Milanovic, BRICs, call centre, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, collapse of Lehman Brothers, conceptual framework, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, deindustrialization, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, disintermediation, Edward Glaeser, endogenous growth, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Financial Instability Hypothesis, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, Hyman Minsky, If something cannot go on forever, it will stop - Herbert Stein's Law, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, industrial cluster, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, light touch regulation, low skilled workers, market bubble, market design, market fundamentalism, megacity, Network effects, new economy, night-watchman state, Northern Rock, oil shock, Pareto efficiency, principal–agent problem, profit motive, purchasing power parity, railway mania, rising living standards, Ronald Reagan, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, Steven Pinker, The Design of Experiments, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, The Market for Lemons, The Myth of the Rational Market, The Spirit Level, transaction costs, transfer pricing, tulip mania, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, web application, web of trust, winner-take-all economy, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

Yet opinion polls suggest that in most countries the majority of people (albeit a declining majority in several cases) accept that the changing global climate due in large part to the buildup of emissions of carbon dioxide and other “greenhouse” gases (GHGs) poses a serious threat to future well-being. The central forecast of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) published in 2007 was for a 0.2 degrees centigrade a decade increase in temperature, with the risks of a bigger rise. The UN’s latest report on climate change forecasts says the chances are increasing that the increase will lie at the upper end of the IPCC’s range of forecasts; and that some events previously expected to occur on a longer-term time horizons are already happening or set to happen far sooner. Recent increases in greenhouse gas concentrations have led scientists to predict a warming of between 1.3 and 4.3 degrees centigrade above preindustrial surface temperatures.

., 127–28 Calculus of Consent, The: Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy (Buchanan and Tullock), 242 call centers, 131, 133, 161 Cameron, David, 288 capitalism: China and, 234; communism and, 96, 182–83, 209–13, 218, 226, 230, 239–40; community and, 27, 51, 65, 117–18, 137, 141, 152–54; cultural effects of, 25–29, 230–38; current crisis of, 6–9; democracy and, 230–38; Engels on, 14; fairness and, 134, 137, 149; growth and, 268, 275, 290, 293, 297; happiness and, 25–29, 33, 45, 53–54; historical perspective on, 3, 6, 14; institutions and, 240; market failure and, 226–30; Marx on, 14; measurement and, 182; mercantile economy and, 27–28; nutrition and, 10; profit–oriented, 18; Protestant work ethic and, 13–14; protests against, 211–13; rethinking meaning of, 9; social effects of, 25–26; values and, 209–13, 218, 226, 230–32, 235–36; well-being and, 137–39 carbon prices, 70–71 celebrities, 33 charitable giving, 33, 141 Checkpoint Charlie, 147 China, 161, 262, 280; capitalism and, 234; carbon emissions and, 63; changed demographic structure of, 90; convergence and, 122; declining population in, 98; energy use in, 63, 65; global manufacturing and, 149; inequality and, 125–26; Mao and, 10; middle class of, 125–26; as next major power, 94; one–child policy and, 95–96; population growth and, 95–96; purchasing power parity (PPP) and, 306n19; rise in wealth of, 81, 122–23, 125, 212; savings and, 87, 94, 100, 108; wage penalties and, 133; World Bank influence and, 163 cities, 308n29; face-to-face contact and, 165–68; size and, 165–66; structural changes in, 165–70; urban clustering and, 166 City of London, 147, 221 Clemens, Michael, 81 climate change, 5–7, 17, 24, 90, 238; carbon prices and, 70–71; Copenhagen summit and, 62, 64–65, 68, 162, 292; domestic dissent and, 66–71; future and, 75–83; geological history and, 69; global warming and, 57, 64, 66, 68; greenhouse gases and, 23, 29, 35, 59, 61–63, 68, 70–71, 83; Himalayan glaciers and, 66–67; incandescent light bulbs and, 59–60; InterAcademy Council and, 66–67; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and, 59, 66–69, 82, 297; Kyoto Protocol and, 62–64; lack of consensus on, 66–71; Montreal Protocol and, 59; policy dilemma of, 58–62; policy recommendations for, 267, 280, 297; politics and, 62–65; social welfare and, 71–75; technology and, 59–60, 198 Coachella Value Music Festival, 197 Cobb, John, 36 Coca Cola, 150 coherence, 49 Cold War, 93, 112, 147, 209, 213, 239, 252 Collier, Paul, 77–78, 80, 82 Commerzbank, 87 Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, 37–38 communism: Berlin Wall and, 182, 226, 239; capitalism and, 96, 182–83, 209–13, 218, 226, 230, 239–40; Cold War and, 93, 112, 147, 209, 213, 239, 252; fall of, 209–13, 226, 239–40, 252; Iron Curtain and, 183, 239, 252; Leipzig marches and, 239; one-child policy and, 95–96; Velvet Revolution and, 239 community: civic engagement and, 140–41; globalization and, 148–49; intangible assets and, 149–52, 157, 161 (see also trust); public service and, 295; Putnam on, 140–41, 152–54 commuting, 45–47 Company of Strangers, The (Seabright), 148–49, 213–14 comprehensive wealth, 81–82, 202–3, 208, 271–73 consumerism, 22, 34, 45, 138 consumption: conspicuous, 11, 22, 45, 236; consumerism and, 22, 34, 45, 138; cutting, 61; downgrading status of, 11; downshifting and, 11, 55; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; global per capita, 72; of goods and services, 7, 10, 24, 35–36, 40, 82, 99, 161, 188, 191, 198, 214, 218, 228–29, 282; green lifestyle and, 55, 61, 76, 289, 293; growth and, 280, 295; happiness and, 22, 29, 40, 45; hedonic treadmill and, 40; increasing affluence and, 12; institutions and, 254, 263; Kyoto Protocol and, 63–64; measurement and, 181–82, 198; missing markets and, 229; natural resources and, 8–12, 58, 60, 79–82, 102, 112, 181–82; nature and, 58–61, 71–76, 79, 82; posterity and, 86, 104–5, 112–13; reduction of, 105; Slow Movement and, 27; trends in, 138; trilemma of, 13–14, 230–36, 275; values and, 229, 236 convergence, 5, 122 Copenhagen summit, 62, 64–65, 68, 162, 292 Crackberry, 205 Crafts, Nicholas, 156–57 credit cards, 2, 21, 136, 138, 283 Csikszentmilhalyi, Mihaly, 45–49 Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism, The (Bell), 230, 235–36 Czechoslovakia, 239 Daly, Herman, 36 Damon, William, 48 Dasgupta, Partha, 61, 73, 77–78, 80, 82 David, Paul, 156 Dawkins, Richard, 118 debit cards, 2 decentralization, 7, 159, 218, 246, 255, 275, 291 defense budgets, 93 democracy, 2, 8, 16, 312n19; capitalism and, 230–38; culture and, 230–38; fairness and, 141; growth and, 268–69, 285–89, 296–97; institutions and, 242–43, 251–52, 262; nature and, 61, 66, 68; posterity and, 106; trust and, 175; values and, 230–35 Denmark, 125 Dickens, Charles, 131 Diener, Ed, 48, 49 Discourse on the Origin and Basis of Inequality among Men (Rousseau), 114 distribution, 29, 306n22; Asian influence and, 123; bifurcation of social norms and, 231–32; consumerism and, 22, 34, 45, 138; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; fairness and, 115–16, 123–27, 134, 136; food and, 10, 34; of goods and services, 7, 10, 24, 35–36, 40, 82, 99, 161, 188, 191, 198, 214, 218, 228–29, 282; income, 34, 116, 123–27, 134, 278; inequality and, 123 (see also inequality); institutions and, 253; measurement and, 181, 191–99, 202; paradox of prosperity and, 174; policy recommendations for, 276, 278; posterity and, 87, 94; trust and, 151, 171; unequal countries and, 124–30; values and, 226 Dorling, Danny, 224, 307n58, 308n34 Douglas, Michael, 221 downshifting, 11, 55 downsizing, 175, 246, 255 drugs, 44, 46, 137–38, 168–69, 191, 302n47 Easterlin, Richard, 39 Easterlin Paradox, 39–44 eBay, 198 Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity project, The (TEEB), 78–79 economies of scale, 253–58 Economy of Enough, 233; building blocks for, 12–17; first ten steps for, 294–98; growth and, 182; happiness and, 24; institutions and, 250–51, 258, 261–63; living standards and, 13, 65, 78–79, 106, 113, 136, 139, 151, 162, 190, 194, 267; Manifesto of, 18, 267–98; measurement and, 182, 186–88, 201–7; nature and, 59, 84; Ostrom on, 250–51; posterity and, 17, 85–113; values and, 217, 233–34, 238; Western consumers and, 22 (see also consumption) Edinburgh University, 221 efficiency, 2, 7; evidence–based policy and, 233–34; fairness and, 126; Fama hypothesis and, 221–22; happiness and, 9, 29–30, 61; institutions and, 245–46, 254–55, 261; limits to, 13; nature and, 61–62, 69, 82; network effects and, 253, 258; productivity and, 13 (see also productivity); trilemma of, 13–14, 230–36, 275; trust and, 158–59; values and, 210, 215–16, 221–35 Ehrlich, Paul, 70 e-mail, 252, 291 “End of History, The” (Fukuyama), 239 Engels, Friedrich, 14 Enlightenment, 7 Enron, 145 environmentalists.

See also markets goodwill, 150 Google, 195, 291 Gore, Al, 60, 74 governance: definition of, 16; growth and, 270, 275, 288, 292; institutions and, 242, 247, 255–58, 261–62; measurement and, 183, 186; sense of, 18; technology and, 17; trust and, 151, 162–65, 173–77; values and, 211, 217, 238; wider crisis of, 255–58 government: bailouts and, 1, 88, 91, 99–100, 145; communism and, 96, 182–83, 209–13, 218, 226, 230, 239–40; debt and, 3–4, 11, 84–86, 89–94, 98–105, 108, 150, 248, 271, 275, 286–87, 294; decentralization and, 246; defining, 15–16, 269; distrust of, 150, 157, 162, 172, 175–76, 247; failure of, 183, 240–44, 257; fairness and, 121, 123, 131, 136; first ten steps for, 294–98; growing challenge to authority and, 245–46; growth and, 268–72, 275–89, 293–97; happiness and, 22–26, 29–32, 38–40, 43–45, 50–54; higher social spending and, 243–44; influence of over social norms, 280–84; infrastructure spending and, 93; institutions and, 240–63; interest groups and, 242–43, 285; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and, 59, 66–69, 82, 297; intrusive regulatory practices and, 244; market control and, 14–15; measurement and, 182–88, 191, 193, 196, 202–3, 206; nature and, 58–62, 65–71, 82–84; New Public Management and, 245–47; OECD countries and, 4, 11, 38, 52, 60, 68, 87, 93–94, 97–99, 112, 125–26, 160, 171, 201, 212, 243–44, 246, 273–74, 281, 283, 287, 291, 293; online access of, 287–88; as organizing economy, 218–19; police service and, 5, 35, 163, 193, 200, 247; policy and, 2 (see also policy); posterity and, 85–95, 98–113; as shareholder, 88; stimulus packages and, 91, 100–103, 111; values and, 14, 210–11, 215–20, 225–26, 229–30, 234 government debt, 3–4, 84, 150, 248; cradle-to-grave social systems and, 104; credibility and, 101; default on, 110–12; deficit spending and, 101, 203, 287; demographic implosion and, 95–100; Gross on, 287; higher retirement age and, 106–7; importance of, 100–104; increased saving and, 105–6; legacy of, 90–92; less leisure and, 106–7; migration and, 108–9; policy for, 104–12, 271, 275, 286–87, 294; posterity and, 85–86, 90–94, 98–100, 105, 108; productivity improvements and, 107–8; reduced consumption and, 105–6; retirement age and, 98; as social issue, 113; Stein’s Law and, 104; as time bomb, 104 Great Crash, 28 Great Depression, 3, 28, 35, 61, 82, 109, 150, 208, 281 Greece, 3, 260, 276, 287, 295 greed, 248; bankers and, 277–78; fairness and, 129; happiness and, 26, 34, 54; high salaries and, 130, 143–44, 193, 223, 277–78, 286, 296; option pricing theory and, 222; policy recommendations for, 277–79; posterity and, 88; trust and, 150; values and, 221–23 Green, Stephen, 279 greenhouse gases, 23, 29, 35, 59, 61–63, 68, 70–71, 83 green lifestyle, 55, 61, 76, 289, 293 Greenspan, Alan, 129 Gross, Bill, 287 gross domestic product (GDP), 10, 12; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; fairness and, 127; growth and, 270, 274, 281, 294; happiness and, 22–23, 28, 32–42, 51–53; logarithm of, 41–42; measurement and, 41–42, 187–91, 198, 201–8; nature and, 56–60, 75–76, 80–82; policy recommendations for, 270, 274, 281, 294; posterity and, 91–94, 98–99, 103, 108, 111; trust and, 157, 160; values and, 212, 218, 232 Gross National Happiness, 36, 40 growth: antigrowth alternative and, 39–44; capitalism and, 268, 275, 290, 293, 297; Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress and, 37–38; community and, 27, 51, 65, 117–18, 137, 141, 152–54; comprehensive wealth and, 81–82, 202–3, 208, 271–73; consequences of inequality and, 135–36; consumption and, 280, 295; cultural suspicion of capitalist, 26–29; democracy and, 268–69, 285–89, 296–97; downgrading consumption and, 11; fairness and, 114–16, 121, 125, 127, 133–37; governance and, 270, 275, 288, 292; government and, 268–72, 275–89, 293–97; gross domestic product (GDP) and, 270, 274, 281, 294; happiness and, 9–12, 22–29, 32–44, 51–53; increasing affluence and, 12; Industrial Revolution and, 27, 149, 290, 297; of information, 205, 291; innovation and, 201–7, 271–73, 281, 290–92; institutions and, 258, 261, 263; limits to, 13, 190, 231; Manifesto of Enough and, 267–98; measurement and, 181–85, 188–90, 194, 201–5, 208; mercantile economy and, 27–28; morals and, 275–76, 279, 293, 295, 297; nature and, 56–59, 62–66, 69–72, 76, 79–82; new conventional wisdom on, 23–24; paradox of prosperity and, 174; as policy goal, 22; politics and, 33; population, 29, 63, 70, 81, 89, 95–96, 108, 168; posterity and, 90, 95, 97, 99, 102, 105–8, 111; productivity and, 189–90, 194, 199–201, 206–7 (see also productivity); public goods and, 185–86, 190, 199, 211, 229, 249, 261; statistics and, 270–74, 290–94; sustainability and, 240, 244, 248 (see also sustainability); trust and, 152–56, 160, 174; values and, 13, 210–13, 222, 231–36; welfare and, 9–12 Groysberg, Boris, 143 Gutenberg press, 7 Haidt, Jonathan, 45–49, 117 Haldane, Andrew, 174 Hall, Peter, 140–41 Hamilton, Kirk, 81 handcrafting, 11, 55 happiness: absorbing work and, 10, 48–49; anomie and, 48, 51; anxiety and, 1, 25, 47–48, 136–38, 149, 174; capitalism and, 25–29, 33, 45, 53–54; charitable giving and, 33; choice and, 10–11; coherence and, 49; Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress and, 37–38; commuting and, 45–47; conflict in relationships and, 47; consumer electronics and, 36–37; consumption and, 22, 29, 45; as correct guide for life, 29–32; cultural suspicion of growth and, 26–29; Easterlin Paradox and, 39–44; efficiency and, 9, 29–30, 61; emotional response to, 21; fairness and, 53; formula for, 46; freedom and, 10, 13, 26, 42–44, 50–53; globalization and, 24; government and, 22–26, 29–32, 38–40, 43–45, 50–54; gross domestic product (GDP) and, 22–23, 28, 32–42, 51–53; Gross National Happiness and, 36; growth and, 9–12, 22–29, 32–44, 51–53; health issues and, 24, 33–38, 42–43, 48, 50; Human Development Index (HDI) and, 36; inequality and, 25, 36, 42, 44, 53; innovation and, 37; lack of control and, 47; literacy and, 36; measurement and, 35–39; mercantile economy and, 27–28; morals and, 22, 26, 30, 34, 43, 48–49; more money and, 56; movement of, 10; nature and, 56–59, 75–76, 80–84; new conventional wisdom on, 23–24; noise and, 47; philosophy and, 21, 27, 31–32, 49–50; politics and, 22–30, 33, 43–44, 50–54; productivity and, 27, 38, 42, 51; psychology of, 44–50; religion and, 32–33, 43, 50; sense of flow and, 48–49, 51; shame and, 47; Slow Movement and, 27–28, 205; social engagement and, 10; social welfare and, 25–26, 30–32, 35, 39–42, 50–53; statistics and, 35–42, 51–52; technology and, 24–25, 35–37, 44, 53–54; unemployment and, 56; utiltariansim and, 31–32; volunteering and, 46–49 Happiness: Lessons from a New Science (Layard), 39 Happy Planet Index, 36 Harvard, 100 Hayek, Friedrich von, 215–16 health care, 4–5, 11; fairness and, 137–43; happiness and, 24, 33–38, 42–43, 48, 50; institutions and, 247, 252–53; measurement and, 181, 188–93, 200, 207; Obama administration and, 285; policy reform and, 285, 290, 293; politics and, 269; posterity and, 89, 93–94, 97–99, 103, 106, 111–13; trust and, 172 hedonic treadmill, 40 Henderson, David, 68 Himalayan glaciers, 66–67 hippies, 27 Hirsch, Fred, 190, 213 Hobbes, Thomas, 114 HSBC, 279 Hugo, Victor, 131 human capital, 81, 203–4, 282 Human Development Index (HDI), 36 Hume, David, 120 Hungary, 239 hybrid cars, 61 hyperinflation, 110–11 Idea of Justice, The (Sen), 43 illegal downloading, 196–97 incandescent light bulbs, 59–60 income.


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Plenitude: The New Economics of True Wealth by Juliet B. Schor

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Asian financial crisis, big-box store, business climate, carbon footprint, cleantech, Community Supported Agriculture, creative destruction, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, deskilling, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, Gini coefficient, global village, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, knowledge economy, life extension, McMansion, new economy, peak oil, pink-collar, post-industrial society, prediction markets, purchasing power parity, ride hailing / ride sharing, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, sharing economy, Simon Kuznets, single-payer health, smart grid, The Chicago School, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, Zipcar

Available from http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/usa/press-center/reports4/ghg-impact-of-the-economic-sti.pdf (accessed June 1, 2009). Inglehart, Ronald. 1997. Modernization and postmodernization: Cultural, economic, and political change in 43 societies. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. ———. 1989. Culture shift in advanced industrial society. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Special report on emissions scenarios. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC Secretariat. Available from http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Fsr/?src=/climate/ipcc/emission (accessed July 4, 2009). International Monetary Fund. 2009. Indices of primary commodity prices 1999-2009. Available from http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/table1a.pdf (accessed May 25, 2009). International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. 2009. Wildlife in a changing world: An analysis of the 2008 IUCN red list of threatened species.

One reason the conversation reverted to its usual outlines is that macroeconomists, who focus on growth, employment, and the overall economy, have been slow to incorporate ecological data into their worldview. During 2007 and 2008, the same period that the housing and credit markets were collapsing, dramatically bad news was surfacing on the climate front. Developments since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, whose data ended in 2006, have been grim. Arctic sea ice was melting at hitherto unimaginable rates, and oceans were rising at more than double the IPCC report’s maximum possibility. Drought conditions were spreading. World emissions were sharply up in 2007, and in June 2008, James Hansen, NASA’s leading climate scientist, told Congress that the CO2 target “we have been aiming for is a disaster.” By February 2009, the news was worse, with scientists reporting that the speed of climate change was already beyond anything considered in the last round of models.

Barlow, Maude. 2002. Blue gold: The fight to stop the corporate theft of the world’s water. New York: New Press. Barnes, Peter. 2001. Who owns the sky? Our common assets and the future of capitalism. Washington, D.C.: Island Press. Bates, Bryson C., Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Shaohong Wu, and Jean P. Palutikof. 2008. Climate change and water: Technical paper of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Geneva: IPCC Secretariat. Available from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tp-climate-change-water.htm (accessed June 1, 2009). Battisti, David S., and Rosamond L. Naylor. 2009. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323 (January 9): 240-44. Baudrillard, Jean. 2001. Selected writings. Edited by Mark Poster. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press. Bauwens, Michel. 2005.The political economy of peer production.

Because We Say So by Noam Chomsky

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Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, American Legislative Exchange Council, Chelsea Manning, cuban missile crisis, David Brooks, drone strike, Edward Snowden, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Julian Assange, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, means of production, Monroe Doctrine, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, Powell Memorandum, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, Slavoj Žižek, Stanislav Petrov, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, WikiLeaks

Department of Energy reported the emissions figures for 2010. Emissions “jumped by the biggest amount on record,” the Associated Press reported, meaning that “levels of greenhouse gases are higher than the worst-case scenario” anticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. John Reilly, co-director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT) program on climate change, told the Associated Press that scientists have generally found the IPCC predictions to be too conservative—unlike the fringe of denialists who gain public attention. Reilly reported that the IPCC’s worst-case scenario was about in the middle of the MIT scientists’ estimates of likely outcomes. As these ominous reports were released, the FINANCIAL TIMES devoted a full page to the optimistic expectations that the U.S. might become energy-independent for a century with new technology for extracting North American fossil fuels.

One side consists of the overwhelming majority of scientists, the world’s major national academies of science, the professional science journals and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They agree that global warming is taking place, that there is a substantial human component, that the situation is serious and perhaps dire, and that very soon, maybe within decades, the world might reach a tipping point where the process will escalate sharply and will be irreversible, with severe social and economic effects. It is rare to find such consensus on complex scientific issues. The other side consists of skeptics, including a few respected scientists who caution that much is unknown—which means that things might not be as bad as thought, or they might be worse. Omitted from the contrived debate is a much larger group of skeptics: highly regarded climate scientists who see the IPCC’s regular reports as much too conservative.

., 138 Grandin, Greg, 124 Grappo, Gary, 131 Great Charter, 31, 51 Greece, 189–190 Greenland, 191 Green Line, 78 Greenwald, Glenn, 42, 173–175 Guangcheng, Chen, 47 Guantánamo Bay, 32, 172, 174 Guatemala, 109–113, 154, 180 Gwadar port, 85 Habeas Corpus Act, 51–52 Halliday, Denis, 189 Hamas, 27, 70, 71, 78, 80, 184–186 Hardin, Garrett, 53 Harrison, Selig, 140 Hass, Amira, 102, 186 Hayden, Michael, 154 Hebron, 185 Heidegger, Martin, 190 Helsinki, 85, 87, 140 Hewlett-Packard, 91 Hezbollah, 190 Hiroshima, 55, 57, 86 Honduras, 154, 180 Hormuz strait, 85 Humboldt, Wilhelm von, 145 Huntington, Samuel P., 136, 158, 175 Hussein, Saddam, 32, 35, 60, 131, 142 India, 25, 33, 35, 45, 57, 60, 84, 90, 141, 192 Indian Olympic Association, 45 Indochina, 30, 170, 172 Indyk, Martin, 128 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 23, 96, 190–191 International Atomic Energy Agency, 65 International Criminal Court, 79 International Energy Agency (IEA), 22–23 International Olympic Committee, 45 Intifada, 72 Iran, 32–36, 35, 56–57, 59–61, 65, 79, 83–87, 139–142, 153, 169, 190 Iraq, 32–34, 154, 169, 172, 177–178, 189–190 ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), 177, 189–190 Israel, 27, 33–36, 57, 59–61, 65–66, 70–74, 77–84, 86, 99–100, 110, 117–118, 125–128, 137, 140–141, 143, 154, 183–187 Israel Defense Forces Southern Command, 77 Istanbul, 119 Italy, 121, 124 Jabari, Ahmed, 79 Jackson, Robert, 177 Japan, 89–91 Jaradat, Arafat, 102 Jarrar, Raed, 178 Jefferson, Thomas, 150–151 Jeju Island, 48–49 Jeong-hyeon, Mun, 48 Jericho area, 126 Jerusalem, 125–127, 126, 190 Jervis, Robert, 136 Jindal, Bobby, 96 Jintao, Hu, 81 John, King, 51, 52 Johnson, 107 Jordan, 77, 125 JSOC, 108 Kaye, David, 136–137 Kazakhstan, 85 Keith Alexander, 158 Keller, Bill, 48 Kennan, George F., 157 Kennedy, John F., 29–30, 55, 56, 131, 170 Kerry, John, 137, 186 Khadr, Omar, 32 Khan Yunis, 73 Khong, Yuen Foong, 170–171 Khrushchev, Nikita, 55, 170 Kinsley, Michael, 111–112 Kirkpatrick, Jeane, 130 Kissinger, Henry, 22, 31, 56–57, 111 Korea, 91 Kornbluh, Peter, 123 Krebs, Ronald R., 27 Kroenig, Matthew, 33 Krosnick, Jon A., 94 Krugman, Paul, 62 Kuperwasser, Yosef, 26 Kuwait, 131 Kyoto Protocol of 1997, 21 Laos, 30–31, 107–108 Latin America, 44, 48, 90, 111–112, 122, 124 Latin American Commission on Drugs and Democracy, 42 Leahy, Sen.


pages: 421 words: 120,332

The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future by Laurence C. Smith

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Bretton Woods, BRICs, clean water, Climategate, colonial rule, deglobalization, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, energy security, flex fuel, global supply chain, Google Earth, guest worker program, Hans Island, hydrogen economy, ice-free Arctic, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, land tenure, Martin Wolf, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan: Tear down this wall, side project, Silicon Valley, smart grid, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade liberalization, trade route, UNCLOS, UNCLOS, urban planning, Washington Consensus, Y2K

For the latest data, see http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/. The 2007 IPCC SRES B1, A1T, B2, A1B, A2, and A1FI illustrative marker scenarios are about 600, 700, 800, 850, 1,250, and 1,550 ppm, by century’s end respectively, with different scenarios reflecting different assumptions about controlling carbon emissions. Such numbers are two to five times preindustrial levels. IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report, Table 3.1. (Full reference IPCC Fourth Assessment Report [AR4], Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, A. Reisinger (eds.), IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland: 104 pp.) available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. 39 J. O’Neill, S.

Page 118: Maps by author using model data courtesy of Joseph Alcamo and Martina Flörke, Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel. Page 126, 128: Climate model projections reprinted courtesy IPCC AR4 (see endnote 277 for full reference). Climate-change projection maps presented in Chapter Five were modified by permission of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.8, Cambridge University Press. Please note that the modifications made to these maps (“optimistic,” “moderate,” “pessimistic”) are for the purposes of this book only, and are not suggested or used by the IPCC. Pages 158-159: Maps by author using 2006 shipping data from AMSA, 2009 (see endnote 362). Page 166: Map by author. Page 212: Map by author.

., available at http://pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise/report.pdf. 261 The 2007 IPCC AR4 “consensus estimate” of 0.18 to 0.6 meters by 2100 may be too low. Other estimates suggest a possible range of 0.8-2.0 meters (W. T. Pfeffer et al., “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise,” Science 321, no. 5894 2008: 1340-1343) and 0.5-1.4 meters (S. Rahmstorf, “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise,” Science 315, no. 5810 [2007]: 368-370, DOI:10.1126/science.1135456.) 262 The main reason for this is that hurricanes and typhoons are fueled by sea surface temperatures. The Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates their intensity is “likely” to increase, meaning a >66% statistical probability. IPCC AR4 (2007). 263 Calculated from Table 2 of R.


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What's Next?: Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the World Economy by David Hale, Lyric Hughes Hale

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affirmative action, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, bank run, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, Black Swan, Bretton Woods, capital controls, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, debt deflation, declining real wages, deindustrialization, diversification, energy security, Erik Brynjolfsson, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, floating exchange rates, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, global village, high net worth, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, index fund, inflation targeting, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Just-in-time delivery, Kenneth Rogoff, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, Long Term Capital Management, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage tax deduction, Network effects, new economy, Nicholas Carr, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, passive investing, payday loans, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, price stability, private sector deleveraging, purchasing power parity, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, regulatory arbitrage, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Thaler, risk/return, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, sovereign wealth fund, special drawing rights, technology bubble, The Great Moderation, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Tobin tax, too big to fail, total factor productivity, trade liberalization, Washington Consensus, Westphalian system, women in the workforce, yield curve

He was appointed Adjunct Professor of Sustainable Resources Development in 2003. Concurrent with his position at ABARE, in 1993 Dr. Fisher was appointed one of the experts completing the socioeconomic assessment of climate change for the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report. He served as economic adviser to Australia’s negotiating team at the third Conference of the Parties in Kyoto. He also fulfilled this role at the fourth, fifth, and sixth Conferences of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and was engaged as one of the experts completing the IPCC’s Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. Dr. Fisher has published more than 260 papers and monographs. ANNA MATYSEK BAEconomics Anna Matysek specializes in resource and environmental economics and has more than a decade’s experience working in the areas of scenario design, CGE modeling, policy advice, and climate change mitigation and adaptation.

As scientific understanding of the climate change problem has improved, it has become increasingly clear that substantial emissions reductions will be required to avoid significant increases in global average temperature. The following is a review of climate change policy rather than of the science of climate change. Although there is much uncertainty about the nature of climate change, we have taken the broad scientific consensus as presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as given and as a reasonable representation of the state of the science. The nature of the emission reductions being discussed in the international climate negotiations go well beyond mitigation efforts at the margin because they involve major energy system transitions. To achieve this in a way that does not stifle economic growth, particularly in the developing world, is a challenge of unprecedented proportions.

She has also worked as a consultant on major international mergers and acquisitions transactions. As a lead author for the East and South Asia region on the World Bank–sponsored Intergovernmental Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development, she worked with a diverse team to develop economic, trade, and environmental scenarios. Ms. Matysek was a lead author in the areas of long-term and industry mitigation on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This paper was completed while she was at BAEconomics. She has recently become General Manager, Strategy and IOG–Business Development at Rio Tinto. TIMOTHY CONGDON International Monetary Research Ltd. Tim Congdon is one of the world’s leading monetary analysts. After starting his career as a journalist for the Times of London, he became an economist in London in 1976.


pages: 264 words: 71,821

How Bad Are Bananas?: The Carbon Footprint of Everything by Mike Berners-Lee

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air freight, carbon footprint, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Skype, sustainable-tourism, University of East Anglia

(Earthscan, London): Chapter 6, pp. 56–58, “Reducing black carbon.” Everything on black carbon is taken from this chapter. 20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group I Report: The Physical Science Basis (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Chapter 2; Ramanathan & Carmichael, op. cit. note 2.) Referenced in the Worldwatch Institute’s piece on black carbon (see note 9 above). Radiative forcing from black carbon is put at 0.4 to 0.9 watts per square meter (0.04 to 0.08 watts per square foot), in contrast with 1.6 watts per square meter (0.15 watts per square foot) for CO2. 21. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), Global anthropogenic GHG emissions. In Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (IPPC, Geneva), p. 36. Adapted to include an emissions weighting factor of 1.9 for high-altitude emissions. 22. © SASI Group, University of Sheffield. 23. © SASI Group, University of Sheffield. 24. © SASI Group, University of Sheffield. 25.

I don’t know any scientists who have any time for his position at all, although some commentators treat his work with unwarranted respect in the misguided name of “balance” or perhaps just to be polite. In the name of open-mindedness I’ve looked in detail at several other “skeptics” and had a similar experience.2 So much for the skeptics. Let’s look at the mainstream scientific community. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change consists of around 2,500 scientists. The skeptics point out that there may be potential for group-think and mass hysteria. These are warnings that should be taken seriously. Furthermore, there have been occasional errors in the IPCC’s work, and even the hint of the odd deliberate misrepresentation. However, the standard of integrity that is demanded of the climate change believers is on a different plane altogether from that demanded of the skeptics. Some scientists at the University of East Anglia have been in world in headline-hitting trouble for allegedly “sexing up” their work in a way that the some of the skeptics would consider quite normal.

See construction industry human beings: individual footprints, 11, 137–38, 149–50, 161, 169; value of, 13–15. See also mortality hydrogen generation, 153 ice cream, 54 Iceland, 54, 56–58, 158, 162, 165–66, 167, 194 India, 103, 104, 152, 162, 165–66, 173, 194 indirect emissions, defined, 7 Indonesia, 152, 194 input–output analysis, 124, 141–42, 191–93 insulation, 120–22, 188, 189, 215nn6–7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 185–86 Inventory of Carbon and Energy, 191 investment, in renewable energy, 59–61 Iran, 194 Iraq wars, 168, 174 ironing, 25–26 jewelry, 122–23 junk mail. See mail Kemp, Roger, 43 Kenya, 208n35 Keswick Brewing Company, 50–51 lamb, 111. See also meat Lancaster University, 154–56 landfills. See waste management La Paz (Bolivia), 39 laundry, 25–26, 39–41, 86–87, 95–96, 209nn8–9 Leontief, Wassily, 192 life-cycle analysis, 124, 141–42, 190–91, 192 lights and light bulbs, 102 Lomborg, Bjørn, 184–85 London (U.K.), 44, 45 mail, 21, 45–47, 114, 204–5n11, 205n12 Malawi, 11, 137, 162, 167 Marcos, Imelda, 105, 212n1 marginal demand, 44, 57, 206n17 Market Transformation Programme, 191 measurement, units of, 10–11 meat: beef and burgers, 12, 22, 26, 42, 88–89, 97, 112, 158; lamb, 111; large footprint of, 177–78; reducing consumption, 180–81 metals, 61–63, 103–4, 122–23 methane: from agriculture, 91–92, 176–77; from egg production, 98; as greenhouse gas, 5, 6, 196n2, 196n3; from livestock, 73, 75, 88–89, 97, 111; world totals, 170, 171, 172, 173 Miliband, Ed, 40–41 milk.


pages: 239 words: 68,598

The Vanishing Face of Gaia: A Final Warning by James E. Lovelock

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Ada Lovelace, butterfly effect, carbon footprint, Clapham omnibus, cognitive dissonance, continuous integration, David Attenborough, decarbonisation, discovery of DNA, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Henri Poincaré, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), mandelbrot fractal, mass immigration, megacity, Northern Rock, oil shale / tar sands, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, planetary scale, short selling, Stewart Brand, University of East Anglia

Scientists, especially Steve Schneider and Jim Hansen, recognized in the 1980s the possibility of dangerous climate change as a result of our pollution of the air with excessive carbon dioxide. This led the eminent Swedish climatologist Bert Bolin to persuade the United Nations (UN) to form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with Sir John Houghton and Gylvan Meiro Filho as its first co‐chairs. It began gathering evidence about the changing chemistry and physics of the atmosphere in 1990 and has issued reports in 1991, 1995, 2001 and 2007. Through the efforts of this more than 1,000‐strong panel of scientists of many different nations we now know enough about the Earth’s atmosphere to make intelligent guesses about future climates. But so far these guesses have been unable to match the observed changes in climate closely enough for us to be confident about IPCC forecasts decades into the future. We are almost all of us now so urbanized that few living in the cities of the northern hemisphere see the stars at night.

Instead, before our thoughts were diverted by the global financial collapse, we seemed lost in an endless round of celebration and congratulation. It was good to recognize the huge efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore with the Nobel Peace Prize and to have a brave 10,000 make the long journey to Bali as a salutation, but because they failed to see the Earth as alive and responsive they ignored at our peril the extent of its disapproval of all we do. As we hold our meetings and talk of stewardship, Gaia still moves step by step towards the hot state, one that will allow her to continue as the regulator, but where few of us will be alive to meet and talk. Perhaps we were celebrating because the once rather worrying voice of the IPCC now spoke comfortably of consensus and endorsed those mysterious concepts of sustainability and energy that renewed itself.

Norton, New York, 1988) James Lovelock, Gaia: The Practical Science of Planetary Medicine (1991), reprinted as Gaia: Medicine for an Ailing Planet (Gaia Books, London, 2005) James Lovelock, Homage to Gaia: The Life of an Independent Scientist (Oxford University Press, 2000) Index bold numbers refer to tables, italic numbers to figures adaptation 48, 49, 104 aerosol, atmospheric 35–8, 40 agribusiness 9, 86, 144, 146 agriculture, greenhouse gas 47 albedo, reduction of 46, 47, 163 algae 29, 33, 163 CLAW hypothesis 111, 116 ocean fertilization 98 Amsterdam Declaration 117, 165 Andreae, Meinrat 36, 94, 111, 116 anti-nuclear propaganda 70–76 Arctic, loss of ice 7, 10–11, 28 Bali, UN Climate Change Conference 4, 16, 47 belief, anecdotal 52–3, 73 Betts, Richard 38, 42 Bhopal industrial accident 72–3 biodiversity 115 biofuel crops 12–13 biogeochemistry 31, 121 biologists, and Gaia 119 Bolin, Bert 3, 120 Brand, Stewart 79, 111 Branson, Sir Richard 2 breathing, greenhouse gas emissions 47 British Antarctic Survey 42 Broecker, Wally, Fixing Climate 11, 97 Brown, Gordon 90 ‘butterfly effect’ 132 C4 plants 155 Caldeira, Ken 94, 95, 110, 112 Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) 74, 146 carbon dioxide burial 77, 96 effect on model Earth 34–5 and energy production 69 Eocene increase 101–2 production by population 47 reduction of 32, 33 regulation 108–10, 112 removal by algae 29, 33, 98 sequestration 96–9 carbon footprint 18, 48 carbon trading 48, 50 Carson, Rachel 143–5 CFCs 137, 145 chaos, deterministic 132–3, 164 Chapman Conferences 120 char, burial 58, 99–100 Charlson, Robert 15, 36, 38, 94, 111, 116 Chernobyl nuclear accident 71, 72–3 China, pollution 37 CLAW hypothesis 111, 116 climatologists, and Gaia 120 clouds artificial 95–6 CLAW hypothesis 111, 116 condensation nuclei 95, 111 effect on climate 35–8 coal 79, 83 combined heat and power generation 79 Common Agricultural Policy 90 Common Energy Policy 90 computers 130 Connes, Janine 107 Connes, Pierre 107 Cool Earth 97 Coombe Mill 136–43 ecosystem 139 grass-burning boiler 138 horticulture 140 tree planting 139 countryside, destruction of 9, 144 Cox, Peter 36, 42 Crane, Robert, The Earth System 110 Crichton, Michael, A State of Fear 147 Crutzen, Paul 94, 95 Daisyworld model 111, 112–14, 115 Dale, Sir Henry 15 Daniel, Billy 143 Darwinism 6, 31, 115, 119, 127–8, 131 Dasgupta, Sir Partha 5 Dawkins, Richard 111, 128, 153 DDT 147 Descartes, René 127, 130, 131, 158–9 deserts, solar thermal energy 66–7 determinism 132–3 Dickinson, Robert 42 dimethyl sulphide 98, 111, 116 disequilibrium 107, 112 dissonance, cognitive 25, 44 Doolittle, Ford 111 drought 10, 54–5 Dyke, James 115 Earth ageing 154 atmosphere 105, 107, 111–12 catastrophes 52, 152–3, 154 effect of carbon dioxide 34–5 hot state 2, 4, 34, 35, 118 human carrying capacity 56 as living system 7, 8–9, 47, 62, 165, 166 surface temperature 39 eco-warriors 21 Ehrlich, Ann 49 Ehrlich, Paul 49 electricity dependence on 16, 17, 88–9 production 65, 68 Electron Capture Detector (ECD) 145 energy 64–86 and political power 75–6 renewable 12, 80–85, 142 Eocene, climate 101–2, 104 Erikson, Brent 13 European Union, renewable energy policy 90 evapotranspiration 37, 38 evolution, Darwinian 6, 31, 115, 119, 127–8, 131 extremophiles 155 Farman, Joseph 42 feedback 167–8 climate models 34, 35, 100–101 ecosystems 38 Fells, Professor Ian 65 Festiger, Leon 25 fire 149–51 Flannery, Timothy 128 The Weather Makers 19 flooding 50 food production, greenhouse gas 47 supply 86–91 synthesized 16, 87, 100 forecasting climate change 23–45 forests clearance 97 evapotranspiration 38 fossil fuels 64, 77–80 Gaia naming by William Golding 1, 106, 128–9 perception of 126–7 see also Earth, as living system Gaia Theory, history 105–22, 166 Gardiner, Brian 42 Garrels, Robert 110 gas, natural 78–9, 83 genes, ‘selfish’ 153 geochemistry 108–10 geoengineering 92–104 Geological Society of London, 2003 Wollaston Medal 120 geologists, and Gaia 110, 119 geophysics 32 geophysiology 31, 100–102 global dimming 36, 102 Golding, William 1, 106, 128–9 Goodell, Jeff 80 Gore, Al 4, 15, 128 Gray, John 6 green ideology 12, 142–7 greenhouse condition 33, 101, 166 greenhouse gas 4, 47 Greenpeace 20, 74, 146 Greenspan, Alan 5 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research 36, 38, 42 Hamilton, William 115, 128, 153 Hansen, James 3, 5, 15 carbon dioxide reduction 32 scientific reticence 74 Hardin, Garrett 62 Harvey, Inman 115 Hayes, P. B. 108 Henderson-Sellers, Ann 42 Ho, Mae Wan 106 holistic systems 127, 129–30, 131 Holland, H. D. 108, 112 Hölldobler, Bert 133 hornets 141 hothouse condition 101 Houghton, Sir John 3, 10 humidity, relative 39 hydrocarbons 77–8 hydroelectricity 71 hysteresis 101, 113, 167 India, pollution 37 intelligence 156–7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3, 4, 7–8 forecasting 23–6, 27, 28, 29, 40, 44 isoprene 98 Jet Propulsion Laboratory 1, 13, 105 Jones, Chris 42 Kahn, Herman 24–5 Kasting, James 108, 110 Keeling, Charles David 6 Keeling, Ralph 6, 14 Koeslag, Johan 115 Kump, Lee 29, 110 Kunzig, Robert, Fixing Climate 11, 97 Kyoto Agreement 8 Lackner, Klaus 97 Laplace, Pierre-Simon 132 Lawson, Nigel, An Appeal to Reason 51, 147 leaves, temperature 38 Lehmann, Johannes 58, 99 Lenton, Timothy 42, 115 ‘lifeboat’ world 11–12, 22, 56, 161 Liss, Professor Peter 42, 116 Litvinenko, Alexander 75 livestock, greenhouse gas 47 living space 87–91 Lorenz, Edward 132–3 Lovelock, Helen 137 Lovelock Sandy 73, 79, 108, 115, 123–4, 125, 136, 141–3 Lovelock, Tom 134–5 McGuffie, Kendal 42 magnesium carbonate 97 mankind breathing greenhouse gas 47 importance to Gaia 21 place in Earth system 6 use of fire 149–51 Margulis, Lynn 13, 108, 111 Marine Biological Association 43 Mars, atmosphere 107 Martin, John 98 Maunder minimum 41 May, Robert 128, 132–3 Maynard Smith, John 115, 128 media, anti-nuclear 71–6 methane 79 clathrates 102 micro-organisms 31, 108 Midgley, Mary 106 Millennium Assessment Ecosystem Commission 42 models climate change 7, 14, 30, 33–5, 40–45, 129 dangers of 4, 6, 14, 26, 129–30, 131–2 Monod, Jacques 127, 158–9 National Centre for Atmospheric Research 42 neo-Darwinism 111, 115, 132, 153 New Age 106, 111 nuclear energy 16–17, 50, 64, 68–76, 83 oceans acidification 41, 46, 94, 102 carbon dioxide storage 97–9 fertilization 98 as indicator of global warming 29, 44–5 oil 77–8, 83 overpopulation 3–4, 9, 49, 77 oxygen 49, 152 concentration 105–6 ozone depletion 42, 95, 137 Pachauri, Dr Rajendra K. 30, 49 Paltridge, Garth W. 118 Parris, Matthew 70–71 Pearce, Fred 106 perception 123–6 of Gaia 126–7 pesticides 143, 144, 145 petroleum 77–8 photosynthesis 38, 49, 99, 152 Pinatubo eruption, effect on climate 4, 37, 40, 94 Poincaré, Henri 132 pollution effect on climate 35–7 light 3 polonium-210 75 Polovina, Jeffrey 29 Porritt, Jonathon 106 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 42 Prince’s Forest Trust 97 radiation, nuclear 70–71 Rahmstorf, Stefan 7, 26, 42 Ramanathan, Professor V. 37 Rapley, Chris 77, 98 rationalism 127 reductionism, Cartesian 127, 130, 131, 158–9 Rees, Sir Martin, Our Final Century 41 religion 157–9 Rogers, James 79 Rogers, Richard, Cities for a Small Planet 87 Russell, Bertrand 44 Saunders, Dame Cicely 46 Saunders, Professor Peter 115 Schellnhuber, John 42 Schneider, Stephen 3, 8, 15, 28, 120 Schrödinger, Erwin 127 Schroeder, Professor Peter 121 Schwartzman, D.


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Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet by Jeffrey Sachs

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agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, British Empire, business process, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial rule, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, demographic transition, Diane Coyle, Edward Glaeser, energy security, failed state, Gini coefficient, Haber-Bosch Process, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge worker, labor-force participation, labour mobility, low skilled workers, mass immigration, microcredit, oil shale / tar sands, old age dependency ratio, peak oil, profit maximization, profit motive, purchasing power parity, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, Simon Kuznets, Skype, statistical model, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, transaction costs, unemployed young men, War on Poverty, women in the workforce, working-age population

Kennedy, I. Harris, et al., “Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A New Dataset from 1850,” Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (2006). 87 Stern Review on Climate Change: Nicholas Stern, “The Economics of Climate Change,” The Stern Review (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007). 87 “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Round Assessment. Information available at: http://www.mnp.nl/ipcc/. 88 Polar bears and alpine species: Steven C. Amstrup, Bruce G. Marcot, and David C. Douglas, Forecasting the Range-wide Status of Polar Bears at Selected Times in the 21st Century (Virginia: U.S. Geological Survey Administrative Report, 2007). 88 higher-latitude environments: Carbon fertilization is the hypothesis, somewhat debated, that higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations may “fertilize” crops and raise the productivity of photosynthesis.

., “Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate Change Through Ozone Effects on the Land-Carbon Sink,” Nature, August 16, 2007, pp. 791–94. 94 brilliant analysis by my colleague James Hansen: James Hansen, “Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate: A GISS ModelE Study,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7 (2007): 2287–312. 98 if the hybrid can be plugged: James Kliesch and Therese Langer, Plug-in Hybrids: An Environmental and Economic Performance Outlook, report number T061, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, September 2006; and The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Position Statement Plug-In Electric Hybrid Vehicles, adopted by the board of directors June 15, 2007. 101 This translates roughly: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage.” Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/srccs/index.htm. 103 “Anything but a marginal”: Tommy Dalgaard, “Looking at Biofuels and Bioenergy,” Science 312 (June 23, 2006): 1743. 103 In a study published in 2005: Klaus Lackner and Jeffrey D. Sachs, “A Robust Strategy for Sustainable Energy,” Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, 2005. 107 Both are needed: International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Sustainable Development in Africa: Is the Climate Right?

Science 301 (2003): 929. Humphreys, Macartan, Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Joseph Stiglitz, eds. Escaping the Resource Curse. New York: Columbia University Press, 2007. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. Position Statement: Plug-In Electric Hybrid Vehicles. Adopted by the Board of Directors, June 15, 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Fourth Assessment Report, 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch. _____. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, 2006. http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/srccs/index.htm. International Conference on Population and Development, Program of Action. http://www.unfpa.org/icpd/icpd_poa.htm. International Conservation Union for Nature and Natural Resources. 2006 Red List of Threatened Species, 2006. http://www.iucn.org/themes/ssc/redlist2006/redlist2006.htm.


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The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View From the Future by Naomi Oreskes, Erik M. Conway

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anti-communist, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, laissez-faire capitalism, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, means of production, oil shale / tar sands, Pierre-Simon Laplace, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, stochastic process, the built environment, the market place

ening grave consequences if not rapidly controlled. Vari- ous groups and individuals began to argue for the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions and begin a transition to a non-carbon-based energy system. Historians view 1988 as the start of the Penumbral Period. In that year, world scientific and political leaders created a new, hybrid scientific-governmental organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to communicate relevant science and form the T h e C o m i N g o f T h e P e N u m b r A l A g e 5 foundation for international governance to protect the planet and its denizens. A year later, the Montreal Protocol to Control Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer became a model for international governance to protect the atmosphere, and in 1992, based on that model, world nations signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to prevent “danger- ous anthropogenic interference” in the climate system.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, IARC-JAXA Information System (IJIS), accessed October 10, 2013: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/ en/home/seaice_extent.htm; Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis, National Snow & Ice Data Center, accessed October 10, 2013: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/; Christine Dell’Amore, “Ten Thousand Walruses Gather on Island As Sea Ice Shrinks,” National Geographic, October 2, 2013; William M. Connolley, “Sea ice extent in million square kilometers,” accessed October 10, 2013: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Seaice-1870-part-2009.png. 20. Gerald A. Meehl and Thomas F. Stocker, “Global Climate Projections,” in Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007—The Physical Science Basis.” February 2, 2007. 21. Clifford Krauss, “Exxon and Russia’s Oil Company in Deal for Joint Projects,” The New York Times, April 16, 2012. 22. For statistics on continued coal and oil use in the mid-twentieth century, see U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2011 (Washington, D.C.: N o t e s 85 U.S.

The year 2009 is viewed as the “last best chance” the Western world had to save itself, as leaders met in Copenhagen, Denmark, to try, for the fifteenth time since the UNFCCC was written, to agree on a binding, international law to prevent disruptive climate change. Two years before, scientists involved in the IPCC had declared by the early 2000s, dangerous anthropogenic warming to anthropogenic interference in be “unequivocal,” and public the climate system was under opinion polls showed that way. fires, floods, hurricanes, a majority of people—even and heat waves began to intenin the recalcitrant United sify. Still, these effects were States—believed that action discounted. was warranted. But shortly before the meeting, a massive campaign was launched to discredit the scientists whose research underpinned the 8 T h e C o m i N g o f T h e P e N u m b r A l A g e IPCC’s conclusion. This campaign was funded primarily by fossil fuel corporations, whose annual profits at that time exceeded the GDPs of most countries.5 (At the time, most countries still used the archaic concept of a gross domestic product, a measure of consumption, rather than the Bhutanian concept of gross domestic happiness to evaluate well-being in a state.)


pages: 462 words: 150,129

The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves by Matt Ridley

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23andMe, agricultural Revolution, air freight, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, colonial exploitation, colonial rule, Corn Laws, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, double entry bookkeeping, Edward Glaeser, en.wikipedia.org, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, falling living standards, feminist movement, financial innovation, Flynn Effect, food miles, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Hans Rosling, happiness index / gross national happiness, haute cuisine, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, income per capita, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invisible hand, James Hargreaves, James Watt: steam engine, Jane Jacobs, John Nash: game theory, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kevin Kelly, knowledge worker, Kula ring, Mark Zuckerberg, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, Northern Rock, nuclear winter, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, packet switching, patent troll, Pax Mongolica, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, Productivity paradox, profit motive, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, rising living standards, Silicon Valley, spice trade, spinning jenny, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, supervolcano, technological singularity, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transaction costs, ultimatum game, upwardly mobile, urban sprawl, Vernor Vinge, Vilfredo Pareto, wage slave, working poor, working-age population, Y2K, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game

Abbasids 161, 178 Abelard, Peter 358 aborigines (Australian): division of labour 62, 63, 76; farming 127; technological regress 78–84; trade 90–91, 92 abortion, compulsory 203 Abu Hureyra 127 Acapulco 184 accounting systems 160, 168, 196 Accra 189 Acemoglu, Daron 321 Ache people 61 Acheulean tools 48–9, 50, 275, 373 Achuar people 87 acid rain 280, 281, 304–6, 329, 339 acidification of oceans 280, 340–41 Adams, Henry 289 Aden 177 Adenauer, Konrad 289 Aegean sea 168, 170–71 Afghanistan 14, 208–9, 315, 353 Africa: agriculture 145, 148, 154–5, 326; AIDS epidemic 14, 307–8, 316, 319, 320, 322; colonialism 319–20, 321–2; demographic transition 210, 316, 328; economic growth 315, 326–8, 332, 347; international aid 317–19, 322, 328; lawlessness 293, 320; life expectancy 14, 316, 422; per capita income 14, 315, 317, 320; poverty 314–17, 319–20, 322, 325–6, 327–8; prehistoric 52–5, 65–6, 83, 123, 350; property rights 320, 321, 323–5; trade 187–8, 320, 322–3, 325, 326, 327–8; see also individual countries African-Americans 108 agricultural employment: decline in 42–3; hardships of 13, 219–20, 285–6 agriculture: early development of 122–30, 135–9, 352, 387, 388; fertilisers, development of 135, 139–41, 142, 146, 147, 337; genetically modified (GM) crops 28, 32, 148, 151–6, 283, 358; hybrids, development of 141–2, 146, 153; and trade 123, 126, 127–33, 159, 163–4; and urbanisation 128, 158–9, 163–4, 215; see also farming; food supply Agta people 61–2 aid, international 28, 141, 154, 203, 317–19, 328 AIDS 8, 14, 307–8, 310, 316, 319, 320, 322, 331, 353 AIG (insurance corporation) 115 air conditioning 17 air pollution 304–5 air travel: costs of 24, 37, 252, 253; speed of 253 aircraft 257, 261, 264, 266 Akkadian empire 161, 164–5 Al-Ghazali 357 Al-Khwarizmi, Muhammad ibn Musa 115 Al-Qaeda 296 Albania 187 Alcoa (corporation) 24 Alexander the Great 169, 171 Alexander, Gary 295 Alexandria 171, 175, 270 Algeria 53, 246, 345 alphabet, invention of 166, 396 Alps 122, 178 altruism 93–4, 97 aluminium 24, 213, 237, 303 Alyawarre aborigines 63 Amalfi 178 Amazon (corporation) 21, 259, 261 Amazonia 76, 138, 145, 250–51 amber 71, 92 ambition 45–6, 351 Ames, Bruce 298–9 Amish people 211 ammonia 140, 146 Amsterdam 115–16, 169, 259, 368 Amsterdam Exchange Bank 251 Anabaptists 211 Anatolia 127, 128, 164, 165, 166, 167 Ancoats, Manchester 214 Andaman islands 66–7, 78 Andes 123, 140, 163 Andrew, Deroi Kwesi 189 Angkor Wat 330 Angola 316 animal welfare 104, 145–6 animals: conservation 324, 339; extinctions 17, 43, 64, 68, 69–70, 243, 293, 302, 338–9; humans’ differences from other 1, 2–4, 6, 56, 58, 64 Annan, Kofi 337 Antarctica 334 anti-corporatism 110–111, 114 anti-slavery 104, 105–6, 214 antibiotics 6, 258, 271, 307 antimony 213 ants 75–6, 87–8, 192 apartheid 108 apes 56–7, 59–60, 62, 65, 88; see also chimpanzees; orang-utans ‘apocaholics’ 295, 301 Appalachia 239 Apple (corporation) 260, 261, 268 Aquinas, St Thomas 102 Arabia 66, 159, 176, 179 Arabian Sea 174 Arabs 89, 175, 176–7, 180, 209, 357 Aral Sea 240 Arcadia Biosciences (company) 31–2 Archimedes 256 Arctic Ocean 125, 130, 185, 334, 338–9 Argentina 15, 186, 187 Arikamedu 174 Aristotle 115, 250 Arizona 152, 246, 345 Arkwright, Sir Richard 227 Armenians 89 Arnolfini, Giovanni 179 art: cave paintings 2, 68, 73, 76–7; and commerce 115–16; symbolism in 136; as unique human trait 4 Ashur, Assyria 165 Asimov, Isaac 354 Asoka the Great 172–3 aspirin 258 asset price inflation 24, 30 Assyrian empire 161, 165–6, 167 asteroid impacts, risk of 280, 333 astronomy 221, 270, 357 Athabasca tar sands, Canada 238 Athens 115, 170, 171 Atlantic Monthly 293 Atlantic Ocean 125, 170 Attica 171 Augustus, Roman emperor 174 Augustus the Strong, Elector of Saxony 184–5 Australia: climate 127, 241, 300, 334; prehistoric 66, 67, 69–70, 127; trade 187; see also aborigines (Australian); Tasmania Austria 132 Ausubel, Jesse 239, 346, 409 automobiles see cars axes: copper 123, 131, 132, 136, 271; stone 2, 5, 48–9, 50, 51, 71, 81, 90–91, 92, 118–19, 271 Babylon 21, 161, 166, 240, 254, 289 Bacon, Francis 255 bacteria: cross fertilisation 271; and pest control 151; resistance to antibiotics 6, 258, 271, 307; symbiosis 75 Baghdad 115, 177, 178, 357 Baines, Edward 227 Baird, John Logie 38 baking 124, 130 ‘balance of nature’, belief in 250–51 Balazs, Etienne 183 bald eagles 17, 299 Bali 66 Baltic Sea 71, 128–9, 180, 185 Bamako 326 bananas 92, 126, 149, 154, 392 Bangladesh 204, 210, 426 Banks, Sir Joseph 221 Barigaza (Bharuch) 174 barley 32, 124, 151 barrels 176 bartering vii, 56–60, 65, 84, 91–2, 163, 356 Basalla, George 272 Basra 177 battery farming 104, 145–6 BBC 295 beads 53, 70, 71, 73, 81, 93, 162 beef 186, 224, 308; see also cattle bees, killer 280 Beijing 17 Beinhocker, Eric 112 Bell, Alexander Graham 38 Bengal famine (1943) 141 benzene 257 Berlin 299 Berlin, Sir Isaiah 288 Bernard of Clairvaux, St 358 Berners-Lee, Sir Tim 38, 273 Berra, Yogi 354 Besant, Annie 208 Bhutan 25–6 Bible 138, 168, 396 bicycles 248–9, 263, 269–70 bin Laden, Osama 110 biofuels 149, 236, 238, 239, 240–43, 246, 300, 339, 343, 344, 346, 393 Bird, Isabella 197–8 birds: effects of pollution on 17, 299; killed by wind turbines 239, 409; nests 51; sexual differences 64; songbirds 55; see also individual species bireme galleys 167 Birmingham 223 birth control see contraception birth rates: declining 204–212; and food supply 192, 208–9; and industrialisation 202; measurement of 205, 403; population control policies 202–4, 208; pre-industrial societies 135, 137; and television 234; and wealth 200–201, 204, 205–6, 209, 211, 212; see also population growth Black Death 181, 195–6, 197, 380 Black Sea 71, 128, 129, 170, 176, 180 blogging 257 Blombos Cave, South Africa 53, 83 blood circulation, discovery of 258 Blunt, John 29 boat-building 167, 168, 177; see also canoes; ship-building Boers 321, 322 Bohemia 222 Bolivia 315, 324 Bolsheviks 324 Borlaug, Norman 142–3, 146 Borneo 339 Bosch, Carl 140, 412 Botswana 15, 316, 320–22, 326 Bottger, Johann Friedrich 184–5 Boudreaux, Don 21, 214 Boulton, Matthew 221, 256, 413–14 bows and arrows 43, 62, 70, 82, 137, 251, 274 Boxgrove hominids 48, 50 Boyer, Stanley 222, 405 Boyle, Robert 256 Bradlaugh, Charles 208 brain size 3–4, 48–9, 51, 55 Bramah, Joseph 221 Branc, Slovakia 136 Brand, Stewart 154, 189, 205 Brando, Marlon 110 brass 223 Brazil 38, 87, 123, 190, 240, 242, 315, 358 bread 38, 124, 140, 158, 224, 286, 392 bridges, suspension 283 Brin, Sergey 221, 405 Britain: affluence 12, 16, 224–5, 236, 296–7; birth rates 195, 200–201, 206, 208, 227; British exceptionalism 200–202, 221–2; climate change policy 330–31; consumer prices 24, 224–5, 227, 228; copyright system 267; enclosure acts 226, 323, 406; energy use 22, 231–2, 232–3, 342–3, 368, 430; ‘glorious revolution’ (1688) 223; income equality 18–19, 218; industrial revolution 201–2, 216–17, 220–32, 255–6, 258–9; life expectancy 15, 17–18; National Food Service 268; National Health Service 111, 261; parliamentary reform 107; per capita income 16, 218, 227, 285, 404–5; productivity 112; property rights 223, 226, 323–4; state benefits 16; tariffs 185–6, 186–7, 223; see also England; Scotland; Wales British Empire 161, 322 bronze 164, 168, 177 Brosnan, Sarah 59 Brown, Lester 147–8, 281–2, 300–301 Brown, Louise 306 Bruges 179 Brunel, Sir Marc 221 Buddhism 2, 172, 357 Buddle, John 412 Buffett, Warren 106, 268 Bulgaria 320 Burkina Faso 154 Burma 66, 67, 209, 335 Bush, George W. 161 Butler, Eamonn 105, 249 Byblos 167 Byzantium 176, 177, 179 cabbages 298 ‘Caesarism’ 289 Cairo 323 Calcutta 190, 315 Calico Act (1722) 226 Califano, Joseph 202–3 California: agriculture 150; Chumash people 62, 92–3; development of credit card 251, 254; Mojave Desert 69; Silicon Valley 221–2, 224, 257, 258, 259, 268 Cambodia 14, 315 camels 135, 176–7 camera pills 270–71 Cameroon 57 Campania 174, 175 Canaanites 166, 396 Canada 141, 169, 202, 238, 304, 305 Canal du Midi 251 cancer 14, 18, 293, 297–9, 302, 308, 329 Cannae, battle of 170 canning 186, 258 canoes 66, 67, 79, 82 capitalism 23–4, 101–4, 110, 115, 133, 214, 258–62, 291–2, 311; see also corporations; markets ‘Captain Swing’ 283 capuchin monkeys 96–7, 375 Caral, Peru 162–3 carbon dioxide emissions 340–47; absorption of 217; and agriculture 130, 337–8; and biofuels 242; costs of 331; and economic growth 315, 332; and fossil fuels 237, 315; and local sourcing of goods 41–2; taxes 346, 356 Cardwell’s Law 411 Caribbean see West Indies Carnegie, Andrew 23 Carney, Thomas 173 carnivorism 51, 60, 62, 68–9, 147, 156, 241, 376 carrots 153, 156 cars: biofuel for 240, 241; costs of 24, 252; efficiency of 252; future production 282, 355; hybrid 245; invention of 189, 270, 271; pollution from 17, 242; sport-utility vehicles 45 The Rational Optimist 424 Carson, Rachel 152, 297–8 Carter, Jimmy 238 Carthage 169, 170, 173 Cartwright, Edmund 221, 263 Castro, Fidel 187 Catalhoyuk 127 catallaxy 56, 355–9 Catholicism 105, 208, 306 cattle 122, 132, 145, 147, 148, 150, 197, 321, 336; see also beef Caucasus 237 cave paintings 2, 68, 73, 76–7 Cavendish, Henry 221 cement 283 central heating 16, 37 cereals 124–5, 125–6, 130–31, 143–4, 146–7, 158, 163; global harvests 121 Champlain, Samuel 138–9 charcoal 131, 216, 229, 230, 346 charitable giving 92, 105, 106, 295, 318–19, 356 Charles V: king of Spain 30–31; Holy Roman Emperor 184 Charles, Prince of Wales 291, 332 Chauvet Cave, France 2, 68, 73, 76–7 Chernobyl 283, 308, 345, 421 Chicago World Fair (1893) 346 chickens 122–3, 145–6, 147, 148, 408 chickpeas 125 Childe, Gordon 162 children: child labour 104, 188, 218, 220, 292; child molestation 104; childcare 2, 62–3; childhood diseases 310; mortality rates 14, 15, 16, 208–9, 284 Chile 187 chimpanzees 2, 3, 4, 6, 29, 59–60, 87, 88, 97 China: agriculture 123, 126, 148, 152, 220; birth rate 15, 200–201; coal supplies 229–30; Cultural Revolution 14, 201; diet 241; economic growth and industrialisation 17, 109, 180–81, 187, 201, 219, 220, 281–2, 300, 322, 324–5, 328, 358; economic and technological regression 180, 181–2, 193, 229–30, 255, 321, 357–8; energy use 245; income equality 19; innovations 181, 251; life expectancy 15; Longshan culture 397; Maoism 16, 187, 296, 311; Ming empire 117, 181–4, 260, 311; per capita income 15, 180; prehistoric 68, 123, 126; serfdom 181–2; Shang dynasty 166; Song dynasty 180–81; trade 172, 174–5, 177, 179, 183–4, 187, 225, 228 chlorine 296 cholera 40, 310 Chomsky, Noam 291 Christianity 172, 357, 358, 396; see also Catholicism; Church of England; monasteries Christmas 134 Chumash people 62, 92–3 Church of England 194 Churchill, Sir Winston 288 Cicero 173 Cilicia 173 Cisco Systems (corporation) 268 Cistercians 215 civil rights movement 108, 109 Clairvaux Abbey 215 Clark, Colin 146, 227 Clark, Gregory 193, 201, 401, 404 Clarke, Arthur C. 354 climate change 328–47, 426–30; costs of mitigation measures 330–32, 333, 338, 342–4; death rates associated with 335–7; and ecological dynamism 250, 329–30, 335, 339; and economic growth 315, 331–3, 341–3, 347; effects on ecosystems 338–41; and food supply 337–8; and fossil fuels 243, 314, 342, 346, 426; historic 194, 195, 329, 334, 426–7; pessimism about 280, 281, 314–15, 328–9; prehistoric 54, 65, 125, 127, 130, 160, 329, 334, 339, 340, 352; scepticism about 111, 329–30, 426; solutions to 8, 315, 345–7 Clinton, Bill 341 Clippinger, John 99 cloth trade 75, 159, 160, 165, 172, 177, 180, 194, 196, 225, 225–9, 232 clothes: Britain 224, 225, 227; early homo sapiens 71, 73; Inuits 64; metal age 122; Tasmanian natives 78 clothing prices 20, 34, 37, 40, 227, 228 ‘Club of Rome’ 302–3 coal: and economic take-off 201, 202, 213, 214, 216–17; and generation of electricity 233, 237, 239, 240, 304, 344; and industrialisation 229–33, 236, 407; prices 230, 232, 237; supplies 302–3 coal mining 132, 230–31, 237, 239, 257, 343 Coalbrookdale 407 Cobb, Kelly 35 Coca-Cola (corporation) 111, 263 coffee 298–9, 392 Cohen, Mark 135 Cold War 299 collective intelligence 5, 38–9, 46, 56, 83, 350–52, 355–6 Collier, Paul 315, 316–17 colonialism 160, 161, 187, 321–2; see also imperialism Colorado 324 Columbus, Christopher 91, 184 combine harvesters 158, 392 combined-cycle turbines 244, 410 commerce see trade Commoner, Barry 402 communism 106, 336 Compaq (corporation) 259 computer games 273, 292 computers 2, 3, 5, 211, 252, 260, 261, 263–4, 268, 282; computing power costs 24; information storage capacities 276; silicon chips 245, 263, 267–8; software 99, 257, 272–3, 304, 356; Y2K bug 280, 290, 341; see also internet Confucius 2, 181 Congo 14–15, 28, 307, 316 Congreve, Sir William 221 Connelly, Matthew 204 conservation, nature 324, 339; see also wilderness land, expansion of conservatism 109 Constantinople 175, 177 consumer spending, average 39–40 containerisation 113, 253, 386 continental drift 274 contraception 208, 210; coerced 203–4 Cook, Captain James 91 cooking 4, 29, 38, 50, 51, 52, 55, 60–61, 64, 163, 337 copper 122, 123, 131–2, 160, 162, 164, 165, 168, 213, 223, 302, 303 copyright 264, 266–7, 326 coral reefs 250, 339–40, 429–30 Cordoba 177 corn laws 185–6 Cornwall 132 corporations 110–116, 355; research and development budgets 260, 262, 269 Cosmides, Leda 57 Costa Rica 338 cotton 37, 108, 149, 151–2, 162, 163, 171, 172, 202, 225–9, 230, 407; calico 225–6, 232; spinning and weaving 184, 214, 217, 219–20, 227–8, 232, 256, 258, 263, 283 Coughlin, Father Charles 109 Craigslist (website) 273, 356 Crapper, Thomas 38 Crathis river 171 creationists 358 creative destruction 114, 356 credit cards 251, 254 credit crunch (2008) 8–10, 28–9, 31, 100, 102, 316, 355, 399, 411 Cree Indians 62 Crete 167, 169 Crichton, Michael 254 Crick, Francis 412 crime: cyber-crime 99–100, 357; falling rates 106, 201; false convictions 19–20; homicide 14, 20, 85, 88, 106, 118, 201; illegal drugs 106, 186; pessimism about 288, 293 Crimea 171 crocodiles, deaths by 40 Crompton, Samuel 227 Crookes, Sir William 140, 141 cruelty 104, 106, 138–9, 146 crusades 358 Cuba 187, 299 ‘curse of resources’ 31, 320 cyber-crime 99–100, 357 Cyprus 132, 148, 167, 168 Cyrus the Great 169 Dalkon Shield (contraceptive device) 203 Dalton, John 221 Damascus 127 Damerham, Wiltshire 194 Danube, River 128, 132 Darby, Abraham 407 Darfur 302, 353 Dark Ages 164, 175–6, 215 Darwin, Charles 77, 81, 91–2, 105, 116, 350, 415 Darwin, Erasmus 256 Darwinism 5 Davy, Sir Humphry 221, 412 Dawkins, Richard 5, 51 DDT (pesticide) 297–8, 299 de Geer, Louis 184 de Soto, Hernando 323, 324, 325 de Waal, Frans 88 Dean, James 110 decimal system 173, 178 deer 32–3, 122 deflation 24 Defoe, Daniel 224 deforestation, predictions of 304–5, 339 Delhi 189 Dell (corporation) 268 Dell, Michael 264 demographic transition 206–212, 316, 328, 402 Denmark 200, 344, 366; National Academy of Sciences 280 Dennett, Dan 350 dentistry 45 depression (psychological) 8, 156 depressions (economic) 3, 31, 32, 186–7, 192, 289; see also economic crashes deserts, expanding 28, 280 Detroit 315, 355 Dhaka 189 diabetes 156, 274, 306 Diamond, Jared 293–4, 380 diamonds 320, 322 Dickens, Charles 220 Diesel, Rudolf 146 Digital Equipment Corporation 260, 282 digital photography 114, 386 Dimawe, battle of (1852) 321 Diocletian, Roman emperor 175, 184 Diodorus 169 diprotodons 69 discount merchandising 112–14 division of labour: Adam Smith on vii, 80; and catallaxy 56; and fragmented government 172; in insects 75–6, 87–8; and population growth 211; by sex 61–5, 136, 376; and specialisation 7, 33, 38, 46, 61, 76–7, 175; among strangers and enemies 87–9; and trust 100; and urbanisation 164 DNA: forensic use 20; gene transfer 153 dogs 43, 56, 61, 84, 125 Doll, Richard 298 Dolphin, HMS 169 dolphins 3, 87 Domesday Book 215 Doriot, Georges 261 ‘dot-communism’ 356 Dover Castle 197 droughts: modern 241, 300, 334; prehistoric 54, 65, 334 drug crime 106, 186 DuPont (corporation) 31 dyes 167, 225, 257, 263 dynamos 217, 233–4, 271–2, 289 dysentery 157, 353 eagles 17, 239, 299, 409 East India Company 225, 226 Easter Island 380 Easterbrook, Greg 294, 300, 370 Easterlin, Richard 26 Easterly, William 318, 411 eBay (corporation) 21, 99, 100, 114, 115 Ebla, Syria 164 Ebola virus 307 economic booms 9, 29, 216 economic crashes 7–8, 9, 193; credit crunch (2008) 8–10, 28–9, 31, 100, 102, 316, 355, 399, 411; see also depressions (economic) ecosystems, dynamism of 250–51, 303, 410 Ecuador 87 Edinburgh Review 285 Edison, Thomas 234, 246, 272, 412 education: Africa 320; Japan 16; measuring value of 117; and population control 209, 210; universal access 106, 235; women and 209, 210 Edwards, Robert 306 Eemian interglacial period 52–3 Egypt: ancient 161, 166, 167, 170, 171, 192, 193, 197, 270, 334; Mamluk 182; modern 142, 154, 192, 301, 323; prehistoric 44, 45, 125, 126; Roman 174, 175, 178 Ehrenreich, Barbara 291 Ehrlich, Anne 203, 301–2 Ehrlich, Paul 143, 190, 203, 207, 301–2, 303 electric motors 271–2, 283 electricity 233–5, 236, 237, 245–6, 337, 343–4; costs 23; dynamos 217, 233–4, 271–2, 289 elephants 51, 54, 69, 303, 321 Eliot, T.S. 289 email 292 emigration 199–200, 202; see also migrations empathy 94–8 empires, trading 160–61; see also imperialism enclosure acts 226, 323, 406 endocrine disruptors 293 Engels, Friedrich 107–8, 136 England: agriculture 194–6, 215; infant mortality 284; law 118; life expectancy 13, 284; medieval population 194–7; per capita income 196; scientific revolution 255–7; trade 75, 89, 104, 106, 118, 169, 194; see also Britain Enron (corporation) 29, 111, 385 Erie, Lake 17 Erie Canal 139, 283 ethanol 240–42, 300 Ethiopia 14, 316, 319; prehistoric 52, 53, 129 eugenics 288, 329 Euphrates river 127, 158, 161, 167, 177 evolution, biological 5, 6, 7, 49–50, 55–6, 75, 271, 350 Ewald, Paul 309 exchange: etiquette and ritual of 133–4; and innovation 71–2, 76, 119, 167–8, 251, 269–74; and pre-industrial economies 133–4; and property rights 324–5; and rule of law 116, 117–18; and sexual division of labour 65; and specialisation 7, 10, 33, 35, 37–8, 46, 56, 58, 75, 90, 132–3, 350–52, 355, 358–9; and trust 98–100, 103, 104; as unique human trait 56–60; and virtue 100–104; see also bartering; markets; trade executions 104 extinctions 17, 43, 64, 68, 69–70, 243, 293, 302, 338–9 Exxon (corporation) 111, 115 eye colour 129 Ezekiel 167, 168 Facebook (website) 262, 268, 356 factories 160, 214, 218, 219–20, 221, 223, 256, 258–9, 284–5 falcons 299 family formation 195, 209–210, 211, 227 famines: modern 141, 143, 154, 199, 203, 302; pessimism about 280, 281, 284, 290, 300–302, 314; pre-industrial 45, 139, 195, 197 Faraday, Michael 271–2 Fargione, Joseph 242 farming: battery 104, 145–6; free-range 146, 308; intensive 143–9; organic 147, 149–52, 393; slash-and-burn 87, 129, 130; subsidies 188, 328; subsistence 87, 138, 175–6, 189, 192, 199–200; see also agriculture; food supply fascism 289 Fauchart, Emmanuelle 264 fax machines 252 Feering, Essex 195 Fehr, Ernst 94–6 female emancipation 107, 108–9, 209 feminism 109 Ferguson, Adam 1 Ferguson, Niall 85 Fermat’s Last Theorem 275 fermenting 130, 241 Ferranti, Sebastian de 234 Fertile Crescent 126, 251 fertilisation, in-vitro 306 fertilisers 32, 129, 135, 139–41, 142, 143, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149–50, 152, 155, 200, 337 Fibonacci 178 figs 125, 129 filariasis 310 Finland 15, 35, 261 fire, invention of 4, 50, 51, 52, 60, 274 First World War 289, 309 fish, sex-change 280, 293 fish farming 148, 155 fishing 62, 63–4, 71, 78–9, 81–2, 125, 127, 129, 136, 159, 162, 163, 327 Fishman, Charles 113 Flanders 179, 181, 194 flight, powered 257, 261, 264, 266 Flinders Island 81, 84 floods 128, 250, 329, 331, 334, 335, 426 Florence 89, 103, 115, 178 flowers, cut 42, 327, 328 flu, pandemic 28, 145–6, 308–310 Flynn, James 19 Fontaine, Hippolyte 233–4 food aid 28, 141, 154, 203 food miles 41–2, 353, 392; see also local sourcing food preservation 139, 145, 258 food prices 20, 22, 23, 34, 39, 40, 42, 240, 241, 300 food processing 29–30, 60–61, 145; see also baking; cooking food retailing 36, 112, 148, 268; see also supermarkets food sharing 56, 59–60, 64 food supply: and biofuels 240–41, 243, 300; and climate change 337–8; and industrialisation 139, 201–2; pessimism about 280, 281, 284, 290, 300–302; and population growth 139, 141, 143–4, 146–7, 192, 206, 208–9, 300–302 Ford, Ford Maddox 188 Ford, Henry 24, 114, 189, 271 Forester, Jay 303 forests, fears of depletion 304–5, 339 fossil fuels: and ecology 237, 240, 304, 315, 342–3, 345–6; fertilisers 143, 150, 155, 237; and industrialisation 214, 216–17, 229–33, 352; and labour saving 236–7; and productivity 244–5; supplies 216–17, 229–30, 237–8, 245, 302–3; see also charcoal; coal; gas, natural; oil; peat Fourier analysis 283 FOXP2 (gene) 55, 375 fragmentation, political 170–73, 180–81, 184, 185 France: capital markets 259; famine 197; infant mortality 16; population growth 206, 208; revolution 324; trade 184, 186, 222 Franco, Francisco 186 Frank, Robert 95–6 Franken, Al 291 Franklin, Benjamin 107, 256 Franks 176 Fray Bentos 186 free choice 27–8, 107–110, 291–2 free-range farming 146, 308 French Revolution 324 Friedel, Robert 224 Friedman, Milton 111 Friend, Sir Richard 257 Friends of the Earth 154, 155 Fry, Art 261 Fuji (corporation) 114, 386 Fujian, China 89, 183 fur trade 169, 180 futurology 354–5 Gadir (Cadiz) 168–9, 170 Gaelic language 129 Galbraith, J.K. 16 Galdikas, Birute 60 Galilee, Sea of 124 Galileo 115 Gandhi, Indira 203, 204 Gandhi, Sanjay 203–4 Ganges, River 147, 172 gas, natural 235, 236, 237, 240, 302, 303, 337 Gates, Bill 106, 264, 268 GDP per capita (world), increases in 11, 349 Genentech (corporation) 259, 405 General Electric Company 261, 264 General Motors (corporation) 115 generosity 86–7, 94–5 genetic research 54, 151, 265, 306–7, 310, 356, 358 genetically modified (GM) crops 28, 32, 148, 151–6, 283, 358 Genghis Khan 182 Genoa 89, 169, 178, 180 genome sequencing 265 geothermal power 246, 344 Germany: Great Depression (1930s) 31; industrialisation 202; infant mortality 16; Nazism 109, 289; population growth 202; predicted deforestation 304, 305; prehistoric 70, 138; trade 179–80, 187; see also West Germany Ghana 187, 189, 316, 326 Gibraltar, Strait of 180 gift giving 87, 92, 133, 134 Gilbert, Daniel 4 Gilgamesh, King 159 Ginsberg, Allen 110 Gintis, Herb 86 Gladstone, William 237 Glaeser, Edward 190 Glasgow 315 glass 166, 174–5, 177, 259 glass fibre 303 Global Humanitarian Forum 337 global warming see climate change globalisation 290, 358 ‘glorious revolution’ (1688) 223 GM (genetically modified) crops 28, 148, 151–6, 283, 358 goats 122, 126, 144, 145, 197, 320 Goethe, Johann von 104 Goklany, Indur 143–4, 341, 426 gold 165, 177, 303 golden eagles 239, 409 golden toads 338 Goldsmith, Edward 291 Google (corporation) 21, 100, 114, 259, 260, 268, 355 Gore, Al 233, 291 Goths 175 Gott, Richard 294 Gramme, Zénobe Théophile 233–4 Grantham, George 401 gravity, discovery of 258 Gray, John 285, 291 Great Barrier Reef 250 Greece: ancient 115, 128, 161, 170–71, 173–4; modern 186 greenhouse gases 152, 155, 242, 329; see also carbon dioxide emissions Greenland: ice cap 125, 130, 313, 334, 339, 426; Inuits 61; Norse 380 Greenpeace 154, 155, 281, 385 Grottes des Pigeons, Morocco 53 Groves, Leslie 412 Growth is Good for the Poor (World Bank study) 317 guano 139–40, 302 Guatemala 209 Gujarat 162, 174 Gujaratis 89 Gustavus Adolphus, King of Sweden 184 Gutenberg, Johann 184, 253 Guth, Werner 86 habeas corpus 358 Haber, Fritz 140, 412 Hadza people 61, 63, 87 Haiti 14, 301, 315 Halaf people 130 Hall, Charles Martin 24 Halley, Edmond 256 HANPP (human appropriation of net primary productivity) number 144–5 Hanseatic merchants 89, 179–80, 196 Hansen, James 426 hanta virus 307 happiness 25–8, 191 Harappa, Indus valley 161–2 Hardin, Garrett 203 harems 136 Hargreaves, James 227, 256 Harlem, Holland 215–16 Harper’s Weekly 23 Harvey, William 256 hay 214–15, 216, 239, 408–9 Hayek, Friedrich 5, 19, 38, 56, 250, 280, 355 heart disease 18, 156, 295 ‘hedonic treadmill’ 27 height, average human 16, 18 Heller, Michael 265–6 Hellespont 128, 170 Henrich, Joe 77, 377 Henry II, King of England 118 Henry, Joseph 271, 272 Henry, William 221 Heraclitus 251 herbicides 145, 152, 153–4 herding 130–31 Hero of Alexandria 270 Herschel, Sir William 221 Hesiod 292 Hippel, Eric von 273 hippies 26, 110, 175 Hiroshima 283 Hitler, Adolf 16, 184, 296 Hittites 166, 167 HIV/AIDS 8, 14, 307–8, 310, 316, 319, 320, 322, 331, 353 Hiwi people 61 Hobbes, Thomas 96 Hock, Dee 254 Hohle Fels, Germany 70 Holdren, John 203, 207, 311 Holland: agriculture 153; golden age 185, 201, 215–16, 223; horticulture 42; industrialisation 215–16, 226; innovations 264; trade 31, 89, 104, 106, 185, 223, 328 Holy Roman Empire 178, 265–6 Homer 2, 102, 168 Homestead Act (1862) 323 homicide 14, 20, 85, 88, 106, 118, 201 Homo erectus 49, 68, 71, 373 Homo heidelbergensis 49, 50–52, 373 Homo sapiens, emergence of 52–3 Hong Kong 31, 83, 158, 169, 187, 219, 328 Hongwu, Chinese emperor 183 Hood, Leroy 222, 405 Hooke, Robert 256 horses 48, 68, 69, 129, 140, 197, 215, 282, 408–9; shoes and harnesses 176, 215 housing costs 20, 25, 34, 39–40, 234, 368 Hoxha, Enver 187 Hrdy, Sarah 88 Huber, Peter 244, 344 Hueper, Wilhelm 297 Huguenots 184 Huia (birds) 64 human sacrifice 104 Hume, David 96, 103, 104, 170 humour 2 Hunan 177 Hungary 222 Huns 175 hunter-gatherers: consumption and production patterns 29–30, 123; division of labour 61–5, 76, 136; famines 45, 139; limitations of band size 77; modern societies 66–7, 76, 77–8, 80, 87, 135–6, 136–7; nomadism 130; nostalgia for life of 43–5, 135, 137; permanent settlements 128; processing of food 29, 38, 61; technological regress 78–84; trade 72, 77–8, 81, 92–3, 123, 136–7; violence and warfare 27, 44–5, 136, 137 hunting 61–4, 68–70, 125–6, 130, 339 Huron Indians 138–9 hurricanes 329, 335, 337 Hurst, Blake 152 Hutterites 211 Huxley, Aldous 289, 354 hydroelectric power 236, 239, 343, 344, 409 hyenas 43, 50, 54 IBM (corporation) 260, 261, 282 Ibn Khaldun 182 ice ages 52, 127, 329, 335, 340, 388 ice caps 125, 130, 313, 314, 334, 338–9, 426 Iceland 324 Ichaboe island 140 ‘idea-agora’ 262 imitation 4, 5, 6, 50, 77, 80 imperialism 104, 162, 164, 166, 172, 182, 319–20, 357; see also colonialism in-vitro fertilisation 306 income, per capita: and economic freedom 117; equality 18–19, 218–19; increases in 14, 15, 16–17, 218–19, 285, 331–2 India: agriculture 126, 129, 141, 142–3, 147, 151–2, 156, 301; British rule 160; caste system 173; economic growth 187, 358; energy use 245; income equality 19; infant mortality 16; innovations 172–3, 251; Mauryan empire 172–3, 201, 357; mobile phone use 327; population growth 202, 203–4; prehistoric 66, 126, 129; trade 174–5, 175, 179, 186–7, 225, 228, 232; urbanisation 189 Indian Ocean 174, 175 Indonesia 66, 87, 89, 177 Indus river 167 Indus valley civilisation 161–2, 164 industrialisation: and capital investment 258–9; and end of slavery 197, 214; and food production 139, 201–2; and fossil fuels 214, 216–17, 229–33, 352; and innovation 38, 220–24, 227–8; and living standards 217–20, 226–7, 258; pessimistic views of 42, 102–3, 217–18, 284–5; and productivity 227–8, 230–31, 232, 235–6, 244–5; and science 255–8; and trade 224–6; and urbanisation 188, 226–7 infant mortality 14, 15, 16, 208–9, 284 inflation 24, 30, 169, 289 influenza see flu, pandemic Ingleheart, Ronald 27 innovation: and capital investment 258–62, 269; and exchange 71–2, 76, 119, 167–8, 251, 269–74; and government spending programmes 267–9; increasing returns of 248–55, 274–7, 346, 354, 358–9; and industrialisation 38, 220–24, 227–8; and intellectual property 262–7, 269; limitlessness 374–7; and population growth 252; and productivity 227–8; and science 255–8, 412; and specialisation 56, 71–2, 73–4, 76–7, 119, 251; and trade 168, 171 insect-resistant crops 154–5 insecticides 151–2 insects 75–6, 87–8 insulin 156, 274 Intel (corporation) 263, 268 intellectual property 262–7; see also copyright; patents intensive farming 143–9 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 330, 331, 332, 333–4, 338, 342, 347, 425, 426, 427, 428 internal combustion engine 140, 146, 244 International Planned Parenthood Foundation 203 internet: access to 253, 268; blogging 257; and charitable giving 318–19, 356; cyber-crime 99–100, 357; development of 263, 268, 270, 356; email 292; free exchange 105, 272–3, 356; packet switching 263; problem-solving applications 261–2; search engines 245, 256, 267; shopping 37, 99, 107, 261; social networking websites 262, 268, 356; speed of 252, 253; trust among users 99–100, 356; World Wide Web 273, 356 Inuits 44, 61, 64, 126 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 330, 331, 332, 333–4, 338, 342, 347, 349, 425, 426, 427, 428 IQ levels 19 Iran 162 Iraq 31, 158, 161 Ireland 24, 129, 199, 227 iron 166, 167, 169, 181, 184, 223, 229, 230, 302, 407 irradiated food 150–51 irrigation 136, 147–8, 159, 161, 163, 198, 242, 281 Isaac, Glyn 64 Isaiah 102, 168 Islam 176, 357, 358 Israel 53, 69, 124, 148 Israelites 168 Italy: birth rate 208; city states 178–9, 181, 196; fascism 289; Greek settlements 170–71, 173–4; infant mortality 15; innovations 196, 251; mercantilism 89, 103, 178–9, 180, 196; prehistoric 69 ivory 70, 71, 73, 167 Jacob, François 7 Jacobs, Jane 128 Jamaica 149 James II, King 223 Japan: agriculture 197–8; birth rates 212; dictatorship 109; economic development 103, 322, 332; economic and technological regression 193, 197–9, 202; education 16; happiness 27; industrialisation 219; life expectancy 17, 31; trade 31, 183, 184, 187, 197 Jarawa tribe 67 Java 187 jealousy 2, 351 Jebel Sahaba cemeteries, Egypt 44, 45 Jefferson, Thomas 247, 249, 269 Jenner, Edward 221 Jensen, Robert 327 Jericho 127, 138 Jevons, Stanley 213, 237, 245 Jews 89, 108, 177–8, 184 Jigme Singye Wangchuck, King of Bhutan 25–6 Jobs, Steve 221, 264, 405 John, King of England 118 Johnson, Lyndon 202–3 Jones, Rhys 79 Jordan 148, 167 Jordan river 127 Joyce, James 289 justice 19–20, 116, 320, 358 Kalahari desert 44, 61, 76 Kalkadoon aborigines 91 Kanesh, Anatolia 165 Kangaroo Island 81 kangaroos 62, 63, 69–70, 84, 127 Kant, Immanuel 96 Kaplan, Robert 293 Kay, John 184, 227 Kazakhstan 206 Kealey, Terence 172, 255, 411 Kelly, Kevin 356 Kelvin, William Thomson, 1st Baron 412 Kenya 42, 87, 155, 209, 316, 326, 336, 353 Kerala 327 Kerouac, Jack 110 Khoisan people 54, 61, 62, 67, 116, 321 Kim Il Sung 187 King, Gregory 218 Kingdon, Jonathan 67 Kinneret, Lake 124 Klasies River 83 Klein, Naomi 291 Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (venture capitalists) 259 knowledge, increasing returns of 248–50, 274–7 Kodak (corporation) 114, 386 Kohler, Hans-Peter 212 Korea 184, 197, 300; see also North Korea; South Korea Kuhn, Steven 64, 69 kula (exchange system) 134 !

Nature 433:613-7.‘the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’. The full IPCC reports are available at www.ipcc.ch. p. 331 ‘the Dutch economist Richard Tol’. www.ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/20061031_tol.pdf. p. 331 ‘With a higher discount rate, Stern’s argument collapses’. See Weitzman, M. 2007. Review of the Stern Review on the economics of climate change. Journal of Economic Literature 45 (3): ‘The present discounted value of a given global-warming loss from a century hence at the non-Stern annual interest rate of 6 per cent is one-hundredth of the value of the same loss at Stern’s centuries-long discount rate of 1.4 per cent.’ p. 331 ‘Nigel Lawson asks, reasonably enough’. Lawson, N. 2008. An Appeal to Reason. Duckworth. p. 331 ‘all six of the IPCC’s scenarios assume that the world will experience so much economic growth that the people alive in 2100 will be on average 4–18 times as wealthy as we are today’. http://www.ipcc.ch/ipcc reports/sres/emission/014.htm.

Besides, even if the current alarm does prove exaggerated, there is now no doubt that the climate of this planet has been subject to natural lurches in the past, and that though luckily there has been no huge lurch for 8,200 years, there have been some civilisation-killing perturbations – as the ruins at both Angkor Wat and Chichen Itza probably testify. So if only hypothetically, it is worth asking whether civilisation could survive climate change at the rate assumed by the consensus of scientists who comprise the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – that is, that the earth will warm during this century by around 3°C. However, that is just a mid-range figure. In 2007 the IPCC used six ‘emissions scenarios’, ranging from a fossil-fuel-intensive, centennial global boom to something that sounds more like a sustainable, groovy fireside sing-along, to calculate how much temperature will increase during the century. The average temperature increases predicted for the end of this century ranged from 1.8°C to 4°C above 1990 levels.


pages: 829 words: 229,566

This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate by Naomi Klein

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1960s counterculture, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, big-box store, bilateral investment treaty, British Empire, business climate, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, cognitive dissonance, colonial rule, Community Supported Agriculture, complexity theory, crony capitalism, decarbonisation, deindustrialization, dematerialisation, Donald Trump, Downton Abbey, energy security, energy transition, equal pay for equal work, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, feminist movement, financial deregulation, food miles, Food sovereignty, global supply chain, hydraulic fracturing, ice-free Arctic, immigration reform, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, light touch regulation, market fundamentalism, moral hazard, Naomi Klein, new economy, Nixon shock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, open borders, patent troll, Pearl River Delta, planetary scale, post-oil, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Rana Plaza, Ronald Reagan, smart grid, special economic zone, Stephen Hawking, Stewart Brand, structural adjustment programs, Ted Kaczynski, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, trickle-down economics, Upton Sinclair, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, wages for housework, walkable city, Washington Consensus, Whole Earth Catalog, WikiLeaks

For more information about the vulnerability of small island nations and coastal areas of Latin America and South and Southeast Asia to sea level rise under “business as usual” and other emissions scenarios (including more optimistic ones), refer to the Working Group II contributions to the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports of the IPCC, both available at http://www.ipcc.ch See chapters 10, 13, and 16 of M.L. Perry et al., ed., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007); and chapters 24, 27, and 29 of V.R. Barros et al., ed., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Part B: Regional Aspects, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014). On California and the northeastern United States, see Matthew Heberger et al., “Potential Impacts of Increased Coastal Flooding in California Due to Sea-Level Rise,” Climatic Change 109, Issue 1 Supplement (2011): 229-249; and Asbury H.

., 15 Thoreau, Henry David, 184, 286 350.org, 140, 156, 233n, 353, 356 tidal power, 127 Tiger Management, 208 tight-rock formations, 311; see also shale, fracking of Tillerson, Rex, 111, 314 Time magazine, Planet Earth on cover of, 74, 204 Tiputini oil field, 410 Tjelmeland, Aaron, 192, 195 Tongue River, 389, 390 Tongue River Railroad (proposed), 389 tornados, 406 Toronto, 55, 65, 67, 73, 126 Total, 246 Totnes, England, 364 Toyota, 196 trade, see free trade agreements; international trade trade unions, 81, 83, 177, 204, 454 job creation and, 126–27 job protection by, 126, 178 NAFTA opposed by, 84 transaction tax, 418 TransCanada, 149, 346, 359, 361, 362 see also Keystone XL pipeline Transition Town movement, 364 Transocean, 330 Trans-Pacific Partnership, 78 transportation infrastructure, 85, 90, 127 travel, wealth and, 113 Treaty 6, 372 tree farms, 222 Trenberth, Kevin, 272, 275 Trent River, 300 trickle-down economics, 19 Trinity nuclear test, 277 triumphalism, 205, 465 Tropic of Chaos (Parenti), 49 tropics, techno-fixes and risk to, 49 Trump, Donald, 3 Tschakert, Petra, 269 Tsilhqot’in First Nation, 345 Tsipras, Alexis, 181–82, 466 Tsleil-Waututh First Nation, 323 Tutu, Desmond, 464 Tuvalu, 13 2 degrees Celsius boundary, 87–88, 89, 150, 354, 456 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 13, 21, 56, 86–87, 214, 283 typhoons, 107, 175, 406, 465 Uganda, 222 ultra-deepwater “subsalt” drilling, 145 Undesirables (Isaacs), 167 unemployment, 180 unemployment insurance, 454 Unified Campesino Movement of Aguán, 222 Union of Concerned Scientists, 201 Clean Vehicles Program at, 237 United Kingdom, 13, 149, 170, 224, 225 compensation of slave-owners in, 415–16, 457 “dash for cash” in, 299 divestment movement in, 354 flooding in, 7, 54, 106–7 fracking in, 299–300, 313 Industrial Revolution in, 172–73, 410 negatives of privatization in, 128 politics of climate change in, 36, 150 supports for renewable energy cut in, 110 Thatcher government of, 39 World War II rationing in, 115–16 United Nations, 7, 18, 64, 87, 114 Bloomberg as special envoy for cities and climate change of, 236 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), 219–20, 224, 226 climate governance and, 280 climate summits of, 5, 11, 65, 150, 165, 200; see also specific summits Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 110 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, see Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) international agreements and, 17 Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, 135 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment of 1972, 202 United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, 377, 383 United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, 180 United Nations Environmental Modification Convention, 278 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 272 United Nations Framework on Climate Change, 200, 410 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 76, 77, 78–79 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 167 United Nations Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (1992), 55, 293 United Policyholders, 109 United States, 19, 67, 68, 143 carbon emissions from, 409 coal exports from, 320, 322, 346, 349, 374, 376 Copenhagen agreement signed by, 12, 150 energy privatization reversals in, 98 environmental legislation in, 201–2 failure of climate legislation in, 226–27 Kyoto Protocol and, 218–19, 225–26 oil and gas export restrictions in, 71 opposition movement in, 9 solar energy market in, 72 WTO challenges brought against, 65 WTO challenges brought by, 64–65, 68 United States Climate Action Partnership (USCAP), 226–28 University College London, 415–16 uranium, 176 urban planning, green, 16 urban sprawl, 90, 91 US Airways, 1–2 U.S.

As conference speaker Larry Bell succinctly puts it in his book Climate of Corruption, climate change “has little to do with the state of the environment and much to do with shackling capitalism and transforming the American way of life in the interests of global wealth redistribution.”7 Yes, there is a pretense that the delegates’ rejection of climate science is rooted in serious disagreement about the data. And the organizers go to some lengths to mimic credible scientific conferences, calling the gathering “Restoring the Scientific Method” and even choosing a name, the International Conference on Climate Change, that produces an organizational acronym, ICCC, just one letter off from that of the world’s leading authority on climate change, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a collaboration of thousands of scientists and 195 governments. But the various contrarian theses presented at the Heartland conference—tree rings, sunspots, the Medieval Warm Period—are old news and were thoroughly debunked long ago. And most of the speakers are not even scientists but rather hobbyists: engineers, economists, and lawyers, mixed in with a weatherman, an astronaut, and a “space architect”—all convinced they have outsmarted 97 percent of the world’s climate scientists with their back-of-the-envelope calculations.8 Australian geologist Bob Carter questions whether warming is happening at all, while astrophysicist Willie Soon acknowledges some warming has occurred, but says it has nothing to do with greenhouse emissions and is instead the result of natural fluctuations in the activity of the sun.


pages: 217 words: 61,407

Twilight of Abundance: Why the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short by David Archibald

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Bakken shale, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, deindustrialization, energy security, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), means of production, mutually assured destruction, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, peak oil, price discovery process, rising living standards, sceptred isle, South China Sea, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, Yom Kippur War

Their paper predicted that Solar Cycles 24 and 25 would have amplitudes similar to those of Solar Cycles 5 and 6 of the Dalton Minimum before a return to more normal levels mid-century.15 A Finnish tree-ring study followed in 2007 with a forecast cold period, beginning about 2015, deeper and broader than any cold period of the last 500 years.16 WHY DID SO MANY SCIENTISTS GET IT WRONG? How can the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Academy of Sciences in the United States, the Royal Society in the United Kingdom, and the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO in Australia all be so wrong? There are not very many scientists involved in the IPCC deliberations. The inner circle ultimately responsible for these organizations’ policy is possibly twenty souls. The question that needs to be asked is, “Did IPCC scientists actually believe in the global warming that they were promoting?” Apparently they did, and possibly still do. That is shown by the Climategate emails17 released on November 20, 2009, and a second batch of emails released two years later. The fact that the IPCC scientists believed in the global warming they were promoting means that their morality was better than some have suspected.

Meanwhile, changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will have a minuscule effect on climate. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is not even a little bit bad. It is, in fact, wholly beneficial. The more carbon dioxide we can put into the atmosphere, the better life on Earth will be for human beings and all other living things. If all that is true, you will ask, how is it that the United Nations–derived Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came up with its ice cap–melting prediction of a 6°C increase in average global temperature by the end of this century? The notorious Climategate emails,1 released on November 20, 2009, appear to show scientists manipulating data to produce the answers they desired, bullying those who disagreed with them, plotting against scientific journal editors, and deliberately concocting misleading figures, among other apparent acts of willful malfeasance.

See Core countries (“the Core”) G G20, 4, 61 Gabala, 102 Gaddafi, Muammar, 54 Gandhi, Indira, 91 Gates, Robert, 128 Geophysical Research Letters, 30 Germany, 40, 68, 108–9, 114, 145–46 Giaever, Ivar, 168–69 glaciations, 16–17, 24, 166 Gleissberg cycle, the, 51 global warming Climategate and, 28–31 as cult, 4–5, 8–9, 57, 167, 178–79 disproving the theory of, x, 13, 15, 32, 166 IEA and, 140 public policy and, 140, 147, 151–52, 165, 170, 172, 177 science and, 5–6, 12, 22, 26, 35–36, 140, 168–69 too much focus on, vii–viii, 178–79 as worldwide conspiracy, 4, 61, 86, 115 Gōngjiàn Shou (character in “A Picture from a Possible Future”), 131, 134 grain 1816 and, 39 Brazil and, 59–60 Canada and, 2, 40 China and, 60, 67, 179 climate and, 2, 4, 6, 49–41, 64–66, 178–79 contamination of, 105–6 MENA region and, 44–58, 62–63, 95 Mexico and, 58–59 Russia and, 2, 59–60 South Africa and, 69 supply of (world), 1–2, 4, 6, 40–41, 58–61, 64–66, 153, 178–79 UK and, 7 U.S. and, 59–60, 66–67, 179 grain belts, 2, 4, 6, 41 Great Barrier Reef, the, 16 Great Depression, the, 65 Great Leap Forward (China), 60, 64–65, 112, 179 Great Plains, 24–25 Great Plains Synfuels Plant, 146–47, 149, 172 Greenland, 13–14 Green River Formation, 160–61, 171 Guam, 115, 127, 130–34 Gulf of Mexico, 24–25, 37, 144–45 H Hahn, Otto, 86 Hainan Island, 108 Haiti, 76, 186–87 Hanover, NH, temperature record, 21 Hanson, Victor David, 73–75 Hargraves, Robert, 163 Harrison, Mark, 117 Hawaii, 110 Haynesville Shale, 143 heroin, 45, 47 High Altitude Observatory, 22 Hiroshima, 88–90, 102–3 Hobbes, Thomas, 16 Holocene interglacial period, 16, 18, 166 Holocene Optimum, 16 Hoover Digest, 117 Hubbert, M. King, 140–41, 143 Hulme, Mike, 29 Huntington, Samuel, 107 I Iceland, 36–37 India, Indian, 23, 68, 74, 90–96, 180 Indian drought of 1967, 58 Indian Ocean, 53, 96 Indonesia, 68, 109 Industrial Revolution, 165, 167, 184 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 12, 28, 30–33 International Energy Agency (IEA), 114–15, 139–40 International Monetary Fund (IMF), the, 49 iodine-131 (I131), 105 Iowa, 15–16, 24, 50, 154, 173 Iranian Revolution, 56 Iran, Iranians collapse of, 45 energy and, 58, 119, 151–52 food supply and, 68 heroin and, 45 nuclear weapons and, 3, 47, 86, 92–94, 97–102, 119, 122–23, 179–80 population of, 56–57 relationship with Iraq, 56 Iraq, Iraqis, 45, 54, 56, 58, 98 Ireland, 21, 39–40, 61–62, 68 Irish potato famine, 61 Iron Dome, 97 Islam, Islamic attacks against the West, 54, 73, 75, 107–8 and cultural development, 48, 72, 81–84, 99, 107–8 in the Middle East, 56, 72, 92 Islamists, 50–51, 55, 95, 99 Israel, Israelis attacks on (past and future), 86, 94, 96–97, 99–102, 120 economy of, 68, 81 grain and, 55–56, 68 nuclear weapons of, 96–97, 180 J J-10A fighters, 125–26, 129 J-10B fighters, 129 J-11B fighters, 129 J-20 aircraft, 120, 126, 129–34 J-31 aircraft, 120 Janatti, Ahmad, 99 Jarvis, M.


pages: 326 words: 48,727

Hot: Living Through the Next Fifty Years on Earth by Mark Hertsgaard

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Berlin Wall, business continuity plan, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, decarbonisation, defense in depth, en.wikipedia.org, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fixed income, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, peak oil, Port of Oakland, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, South China Sea, the built environment, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, transit-oriented development, University of East Anglia, urban planning

I could not have written this book without relying on the voluminous scientific research that has been done on global warming and climate change and, equally important, the efforts of scientifically literate experts to explain those findings in ways that a non-scientist such as myself can understand. A foundation source is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC has been criticized over the years, both by deniers of climate change who focus on a handful of errors in thousands of pages of text to try to discredit the entirety of climate science and, on the other side, by scientists and advocates who complain that the IPCC's procedures (including the control that governments exercise over the executive summaries of IPCC assessments) make its reports overly conservative and dated. Nevertheless, the IPCC's reports, especially its four Assessment Reports (published in 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007), are necessary (if often dry and technical) reading for any student of climate change. Beyond the IPCC, Mark Lynas, a science writer based in Oxford, has written one of the essential books on the subject, Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (London: Harper Collins, 2007).

No comparably prominent scientist in the United States was saying this sort of thing publicly in 2005. In particular, King's assertions went beyond the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international group of scientists and experts the UN had created in 1988 to advise the world's governments on global warming. The IPCC had issued three major reports on climate change by the time I interviewed King. Its First Assessment Report appeared in 1990, its Second Assessment Report in 1995, and its Third Assessment Report in 2001. Only in its Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007, eighteen months after our interview, did the IPCC declare that the scientific evidence for man-made global warming was "unequivocal" and that long-term sea level rise and other impacts of climate change had become inevitable.

"This Was a Crime" [>] Epilogue: Chiara in the Year 2020 [>] Acknowledgments [>] Notes [>] Index [>] Prologue: Growing Up Under Global Warming Working on climate change used to be about saving the world for future generations. Not anymore. Now it's not only your daughter who is at risk, it's probably you as well. —MARTIN PARRY, co-chair of the Fourth Assessment Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change I covered the environmental beat for fifteen years before I became a father. Much of that time was spent overseas, where, like many other journalists, I saw more than my share of heartbreaking things happening to children. But they were always other people's children. My first time was in the old Soviet Union, where I exposed a series of nuclear disasters that had been kept secret for decades by both the KGB and the CIA.


pages: 443 words: 112,800

The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World by Jeremy Rifkin

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3D printing, additive manufacturing, Albert Einstein, barriers to entry, borderless world, carbon footprint, centre right, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, Community Supported Agriculture, corporate governance, decarbonisation, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, global supply chain, hydrogen economy, income inequality, industrial cluster, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, job automation, knowledge economy, manufacturing employment, marginal employment, Martin Wolf, Masdar, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, new economy, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open borders, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, purchasing power parity, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, Spread Networks laid a new fibre optics cable between New York and Chicago, supply-chain management, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, too big to fail, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, urban planning, urban renewal, Yom Kippur War, Zipcar

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/frontmattersforeword.html. 34.Solomon, S., et al. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm. 35.Bernstein, L., Bosch, P., Canziani, O., Chen, Z., Christ, R., Davidson, O., Yohe, G. (2007, November 17). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. 36.Raup, D.

Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Change. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 254. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf 41.Bernstein, L., Bosch, P., Canziani, O., Chen, Z., Christ, R., Davidson, O., Yohe, G. (2007, November 17). Observed Changes in Climate and Their Effects. In Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 32. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. 42.Webster, P., Holland, G., Curry, J., & Chang, H. (2005). Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in Warming Environment.

Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Valencia, Spain: Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 49. 45.Parry, M., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., van der Linden, P., & Hanson, C. (2007). Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic). In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 676. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch15.html; Instanes, A. (2005). Infrastructure: Buildings, Support Systems, and Industrial Facilities. In Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Retrieved from http://www.acia.uaf.edu/PDFs/ACIA_Science_Chapters_Final/ACIA_Ch16_Final.pdf. 46.Lean, G. (2008, August 31).


pages: 879 words: 233,093

The Empathic Civilization: The Race to Global Consciousness in a World in Crisis by Jeremy Rifkin

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agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, British Empire, carbon footprint, collaborative economy, death of newspapers, delayed gratification, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, feminist movement, global village, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, labour mobility, Mahatma Gandhi, Marshall McLuhan, means of production, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, Milgram experiment, new economy, New Urbanism, Norbert Wiener, off grid, out of africa, Peace of Westphalia, peak oil, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, Simon Kuznets, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, supply-chain management, surplus humans, the medium is the message, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, theory of mind, transaction costs, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, working poor, World Values Survey

“Climate Change ‘Will Cause Refugee Crisis.’ ” Independent Online. October 20, 2006. 2 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policy Makers: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 2. 3 Ibid. p. 3. 4 Ibid. 5 Ibid. p. 5. 6 “Why Build Green? ” U.S. Building Council. 2008. 7 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Livestock’s Long Shadow—Environmental Issues and Options, 2006. p. 272. ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/A0701E07.pdf 8 Ibid. 9 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. February 2 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. p. 12 www.ipcc.ch/ 10 Stainforth, D. A., T. Alna, C. Christensen, M. Collins, N. Fauli, D.

Chapter 3: Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 254. 21 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 376. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Chapter 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic). Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 655. 22 Schneeberger, C., H. Blatter, A. Abe-Ouchi, and M. Wild. “Modelling Changes in the Mass Balance of Glaciers of the Northern Hemisphere for a Transient 2×CO2 Scenario.”

No. 27. 2005. 11 Bemstein, Lenny, et al. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf 12 Whitty, Julia. “By the End of the Century Half of All Species Will Be Gone. Who Will Survive?” Mother Jones 32. No. 3. p. 36-90. 13 Houghton, John. Global Warming: The Complete Briefi ng, 2nd ed. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997, p. 127. 14 Ibid. 15 Ibid. 16 Beardsley, Tim. “In the Heat of the Night.” Scientifi c American. Vol. 279. No. 4. October 1998. p. 20. 17 Ibid. 18 Pearce, Fred. “Violent Future.” New Scientist. July 21, 2001. p. 4. 19 Mayell, H. “UN Highlights World Water Crisis.” National Geographic News. June 5, 2003. 20 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.


pages: 428 words: 121,717

Warnings by Richard A. Clarke

active measures, Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, anti-communist, artificial general intelligence, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, Bernie Madoff, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, data acquisition, discovery of penicillin, double helix, Elon Musk, failed state, financial thriller, fixed income, Flash crash, forensic accounting, friendly AI, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, James Watt: steam engine, Jeff Bezos, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, knowledge worker, Maui Hawaii, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, mouse model, Nate Silver, new economy, Nicholas Carr, nuclear winter, pattern recognition, personalized medicine, phenotype, Ponzi scheme, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman: Challenger O-ring, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart grid, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Stuxnet, technological singularity, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Vernor Vinge, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, women in the workforce, Y2K

These three glaciers, along with the rest of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, contain enough ice to raise the global sea level by 3.9 feet. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the world’s preeminent climate science organization. It is open to all member countries of the United Nations; currently 195 of them are members. Thousands of scientists have contributed to its work. They state, “By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the authority of their scientific content.” Therefore, their work is “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.” The IPCC has been publishing its climate-change assessments since 1990. The IPCC disagrees significantly with Hansen about both the rate at which and the level to which the water will rise. The IPCC’s most recent assessment was released in 2014. It projects an increase in global temperature at greater than 1°C, but less than about 4°C above preindustrial temperatures.

(Enthoven), 361 Hsu, Steve, 343 Huckabee, Mike, 384n Human embryo gene editing, 326, 340–41, 345 Huntington, Samuel, 36 Hurricane Andrew, 53 Hurricane Betsy, 46 Hurricane Katrina, 6, 39–55, 72 government failures, 50–55 levee system, 40, 41–42, 46, 49, 50, 53–54 making landfall, 39–40, 49 New Orleans Scenario and, 45, 46–50, 52 Hurricane Pam exercise, 40, 47–49 Hurricane Sandy, 252 Hussein, Saddam Allen’s warning of Gulf War, 19–20, 22–23, 26–30, 358 Iraq-Iran War, 22–24 WMD and, 31 Hussein of Jordan, 28 IBM, 202, 209 Idaho Falls exercise, 288–89 Ideological Response Rejection, 179–80 Impact events, 301–24 Chelyabinsk meteor, 309–10, 316 Chicxulub crater, 307–9 Tunguska event, 301–3, 316 “In-attentional blindness,” 175 India, 261–73 Cold Start doctrine, 264–65, 267, 270 Mumbai terrorist attacks of 2008, 261–64 nuclear weapons and Pakistan, 264–73, 281–82 partition of, 265–66 Indian Air Force, 264 Indian Army, 266–67 Indian Navy, 264 Indications and warning (I&W), 25–27, 359–60 Industrial Revolution, 175 Initial Occurrence Syndrome, 171–72 Ford and Syria, 72 Fukushima nuclear disaster, 97–98 Iraq-Kuwait case, 34–35 Morrison and asteroid threat, 318 van Heerden and levee failures, 52 Yudkowsky and AI, 215 Institutional reluctance, 140–42, 177–78, 320–21 Intelligence (IQ), 343 “Intelligence explosion,” 201–2, 205 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 246–50, 253, 254–55 International Arabian Horse Association, 54 International Herald-Tribune, 92 International Rice Research Institute, 193 International Summit on Human Gene Editing (2015), 345–46 Internet of Things (IoT), 292–300, 366 Invisible Obvious, 174–76, 234–35 In vitro fertilization (IVF), 343–44 Iran Iraq-Iran War, 22–24 nuclear program, 291–92 Syria and, 67, 73, 74 Iran-Contra scandal, 32 Iraq, 58, 63.

Kerr, “Hansen vs. the World on the Greenhouse Threat,” Science 244, no. 4908 (1989): 1041–43, at 1041. 10. “Global Temperature,” Vital Signs, NASA Global Climate Change, http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature (accessed Oct. 9, 2016). 11. Christopher B. Field, Vicente R. Barros, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds., Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability—Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014), 63. 12. “Adoption of the Paris Agreement,” Conference of the Parties, Twenty-First Session, Paris, Nov. 30–Dec. 11, 2015, (United Nations: Framework Convention on Climate Change), 4, 6. 13. Oliver Milman, “James Hansen, Father of Climate Change Awareness, Calls Paris Talks ‘a Fraud,’” Guardian, Dec. 12, 2015, sec.


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Living in a Material World: The Commodity Connection by Kevin Morrison

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barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, commoditize, commodity trading advisor, computerized trading, diversified portfolio, Doha Development Round, Elon Musk, energy security, European colonialism, flex fuel, food miles, Hernando de Soto, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, hydrogen economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Long Term Capital Management, new economy, North Sea oil, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, out of africa, Paul Samuelson, peak oil, price mechanism, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, sovereign wealth fund, the payments system, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, transaction costs, uranium enrichment, young professional

There is the conference of parties (Cop) for the UNFCCC and the member of parties (Mop) for the Kyoto Protocol. The reason for this is that the Mop delegates are from the countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which does not include the United States. The US delegates only participate in the Cop discussions. 170 | LIVING IN A MATERIAL WORLD 3. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fourth assessment on climate change throughout 2007 through draft and final reports on the various issues associated with global warming from the scientific basis to adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC was constantly in the news and added to the expectation that the Bali meeting would conclude with strong action on combating climate change. 4. The Marketing Association of the English Wine Industry – http://www. englishwineproducers.com/history.htm 5. The reference to Evelyn was taken from the Museum of London website – http://www.museumoflondon.org.uk/archive/exhibits/changing faces/ change/change1.htm.

It could even go into biomass to use for power generation. But it could be another ten years before there is a track record with the seeds consistently producing the desired oil and before the breeding techniques for the plant are fine-tuned around the world. The Energy and Resource Institute (Teri), the New Delhi-based research group headed by Dr Rajendra K. Pachauri, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is also conducting research on jatropha. ‘We should not be debating whether there is land for fuel or land for food, we should debate what areas are suitable for non-edible crops,’ said Dr Adholeya, director of biotechnology and management in Teri’s bioresources division. His office was prone to intermittent power cuts during our discussions, a regular occurrence across India due to prolonged power shortages.

The IEA said in its World Energy Outlook that carbon capture and storage is assumed not to be deployed before 2030 because of doubts about whether technical and cost challenges can be overcome. The report states that the greatest reductions in future US electric sector CO2 emissions are likely to come from applying carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to nearly all new coal-based power plants coming online after 2020. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s ‘Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage – Summary for policymakers and technical summary’ gives a breakdown of the volume of emissions from each sector. CLIMATE | 177 54. In 1900 the global annual water use per capita was 350 cubic metres. In 2000, that number had grown to 642 cubic metres, said John Dickerson in his speech ‘The Economic Paradox That Spawned A Compelling Investment Theme’, at the Case for Water Investing conference in 2007. 55.


pages: 279 words: 87,910

How Much Is Enough?: Money and the Good Life by Robert Skidelsky, Edward Skidelsky

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banking crisis, basic income, Bertrand Russell: In Praise of Idleness, Bonfire of the Vanities, call centre, creative destruction, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, death of newspapers, financial innovation, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, happiness index / gross national happiness, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joseph Schumpeter, lump of labour, market clearing, market fundamentalism, Paul Samuelson, profit motive, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, Tobin tax, union organizing, University of East Anglia, Veblen good, wage slave, wealth creators, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

Our doubts concern the economic implications, not the science of global warming. That said, the science is not as settled as is often claimed. Climatology is a young field, in which much remains uncertain and disputed. It is also fiercely politicized, with powerful commercial and bureaucratic interests on either side of the debate. Not even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s chief assembly of climate scientists, is entirely above suspicion. “There remains a risk,” claims a 2005 House of Lords report on climate change, “that IPCC has become a ‘knowledge monopoly’ in some respects, unwilling to listen to those who do not pursue the consensus line.”7 Faced with this barrage of accusation and counter-accusation, the best we can do as non-scientists is to accept the majority view, which is that global warming is indeed mainly the result of human activity.

George Monbiot, “Bring on the Recession,” Guardian, October 9, 2007. 6. Tim Jackson, Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (London: Earthscan, 2009). 7. House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs, The Economics of Climate Change (London: MMSO, 2005), p. 58. 8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), Working Panel 1, Technical Summary, p. 79. 9. K. R. Popper, The Poverty of Historicism (London: Routledge, 1961), pp. v–vi. 10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Working Panel 2, ch. 3, p. 154. 11. Quoted in Mike Hulme, “Chaotic world of climate truth,” 2006, BBC News website, 2006, news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6115644.stm (accessed November 9, 2011). news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6115644.stm (accessed September 9, 2011). 12.

Both assumptions are questionable. Let us take them in turn. Forecasting is a hazardous business, especially in fields as complex and ill-understood as this. That does not prevent people trying though. The IPCC has been putting out estimates of the costs of global warming since 1990. These estimates are generated on powerful computers and stretch decades into the future. They radiate technocratic authority. But how much can they really tell us? The IPCC’s models are based on long-term projections not only of climate but of population, economic growth and technological change, all highly uncertain. Compound these uncertainties, and you have what the IPCC itself calls a “cascade of uncertainty.”8 This seems a weak basis on which to adopt measures that will certainly have a drastic effect on our standard of living. Technology is central to estimating the costs of global warming, because it determines how well we can respond to the flooding, drought and disease forecast to follow in its wake.

Making Globalization Work by Joseph E. Stiglitz

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affirmative action, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, business process, capital controls, central bank independence, corporate governance, corporate social responsibility, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Doha Development Round, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Firefox, full employment, Gini coefficient, global reserve currency, Gunnar Myrdal, happiness index / gross national happiness, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, incomplete markets, Indoor air pollution, informal economy, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inventory management, invisible hand, John Markoff, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, low skilled workers, manufacturing employment, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, microcredit, moral hazard, North Sea oil, offshore financial centre, oil rush, open borders, open economy, price stability, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, race to the bottom, reserve currency, rising living standards, risk tolerance, Silicon Valley, special drawing rights, statistical model, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, trade liberalization, trickle-down economics, union organizing, Washington Consensus, zero-sum game

Greenhouse gases include not only carbon dioxide and methane (global average atmospheric concentrations of methane have increased 150 percent since 1750) but also such gases as nitrous oxide (N20). See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Geneva: United Nations Environment Programme, 2001). 4. The most comprehensive surveys of the science on global warming are provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its periodic reports. See IPCC, IPCC Third Assessment: Climate Change 2001 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2001). The previous two assessments—IPCC, IPCC First Assessment Report, 1990 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1990); and IPCC, IPCC Second Assessment: Climate Change 1995 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1995)______ can be found at www .ipcc.ch/pub/reports htm. 5. The IPCC was established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, to assess the "risk of human-induced climate change."

These examples show that the international community has been able, in the past, to respond to the challenge posed by a threat to the global environment. Can it respond to the enormous challenge posed by global warming? The Rio Earth Summit Some twenty years ago, as scientists first became aware of the changes taking place in the global climate, the world recognized that there was a potential problem and decided to study it. In 1988, the UN created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), asking the world's leading experts to assess the scale of climate change and its likely impact.' The IPCC published three major studies between 1990 and 2001, concluding in each of them that there is indeed mounting evidence of the dangers of global warming. The evidence has also been reviewed in innumerable studies by the academies of science in individual countries, including one in the United States after President George W Bush had seemingly cast doubt on the seriousness of global warming.

., 107, 108 protection of, 51, 72 research and, 111 standards for, 119, 128 strengths and limits of, 107-12 in trade agreements, 116-17 U.S. push for, 96 WTO requirements for, 305n see also Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) InterAmerican Development Bank, 307n interdependence, as globalization tool, 266 interest rates, 70, 218-19, 220, 221, 222, 235, 236, 246, 247, 257, 288 as cost of reserve, 249-50 on loans, 241, 248-50, 265 unemployment and, 253 349 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 168 International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, 336n International Conference on Financing for Development, 14 International Convention for Regulation of Whaling (1946), 168 International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), 306n International Credit Court, 230 International Labour Organization, 8, 117 International Monetary Fund (IMF), ix, xii, 12-13, 16-17, 21, 28, 34, 36, 54, 154-55, 209, 225, 226, 277, 279-80, 320n, 331n, 334n, 335n, 338n Argentina and, 211, 221, 222-24, 241, 242 Asian Monetary Fund discouraged by, 260 attempt to discredit Stiglitz by, 293n bailouts by, 217 bankruptcy and, 287 BIS vs., 237 capital market liberalization and, 16, 38, 39 changes in voting structure at, 281-82 conditions on aid from, 15, 57, 146-47 creation of, 74 debt negotiation and, 215 debt relief by, 15, 239-40 democracy undermined by, 56 democratic deficit in, 18, 276 East Asian crisis exacerbated by, ix, 31, 34-35, 231, 248, 261 establishment of, 236 failed recommendations from, 31, 38-39, 40, 146-47 improved accountability for, 283-84 Indonesia and, 243 Iraq and, 234 loans to developing countries from, 41, 212, 226 Nigeria and, 234-35 overlending and, 220 policy flaws and failures of, xii, xiii, 255, 266 power plants and, 218 privatization advised by, 142-43, 234 Russian economic failures accelerated by, ix-x, 234, 242-43 SDRs and, 261-62 trade deficits as focus of stabilization policies of, 264 350 INDEX International Trade Commission, U.S., 308n International Trade Organization (ITO), 74-75 Internet, 20, 43, 84 "invisible hand," xiv Iraq, 135, 136, 229, 231, 234, 238 Iraq War, xviii, 5, 22, 172, 286, 291 see also war on terrorism Ireland, 170 irrigation, 85 Italy, 213, 224, 295n Ivory Coast, 41 Jamaica, 12, 84, 307n Japan, 33, 71, 77, 85, 261, 264, 270, 295n, 328n Asian Monetary Fund proposed by, 260 bribery in, 139 Chinese pollution in, 164 energy efficiency of, 170 greenhouse gases of, 169, 172 Kyoto Protocol and, 169, 173, 177, 180, 185 in Paris Club, 234 reserves held by, 247-48, 254-56, 258 tariffs of, 303n wage disparity in, 46 Jefferson, Thomas, 108, 314n Jones Act (1920), 88-89, 307n Jubilee 2000, 226-27 Justice Department, U.S., 201, 313n Kaletra, 121 Kantor, Mickey, 131, 318n Karnataka, India, 25 Katrina, Hurricane, 172, 307n Kazakhstan, 40, 133, 134, 139 Kennedy Round, 305n Kenya, 40, 41 Keynes, John Maynard, xvii-xviii, 68, 235, 239, 260, 261 Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 144 Klein, Joel, 313n knowledge, 285, 302n patents as impediment to distribution of, 110 as public good, 107-8, 123, 174, 315n, 317n see also economies of information; traditional knowledge knowledge gap, 29, 51, 57, 118, 188, 272 Kyoto Protocol, 169-74, 180-81, 310n, 315n deforestation and, 179-80 developing countries and, 169-70, 173, 175-76 and emissions targets for developing countries, 174-76 trade agreements and, 315n trade sanctions and, 177-78, 182 2012 revised version of, 180 U.S. rejection of, 171-74, 176, 180, 184 labor, 79 flow of, 78, 88-90 free trade and, 66-67 middleaged, 67-68 unskilled, 8890, 271, 272 labor standards agreement, 117 Lagos, 134 Lagos, Richard, 320n Lamy, Pascal, 80 Lancet, 316n land grants, 20 Latin America, xi, 11, 24, 35-36, 89, 134 bail-outs in, 217 bilateral trade agreements in, 97 debt forgiveness in, 240 development failures in, 44, 47 government interventionist policies of 35 growth of development in, 30, 36-37, 238 import restrictions in, 35 inflation in, 36 leftist governments in, 36-37 money flow to U.S. from, 221 NAFTA and, 285 per capita income of, 35-36 policy reform in, 296n poverty rate vs.


pages: 293 words: 81,183

Doing Good Better: How Effective Altruism Can Help You Make a Difference by William MacAskill

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barriers to entry, basic income, Black Swan, Branko Milanovic, Cal Newport, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, clean water, corporate social responsibility, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, effective altruism, en.wikipedia.org, end world poverty, experimental subject, follow your passion, food miles, immigration reform, income inequality, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, job automation, job satisfaction, labour mobility, Lean Startup, M-Pesa, mass immigration, meta analysis, meta-analysis, microcredit, Nate Silver, Peter Singer: altruism, purchasing power parity, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, randomized controlled trial, self-driving car, Skype, Stanislav Petrov, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, The Future of Employment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, universal basic income, women in the workforce

First, it shows that the debate over whether man-made climate change is happening is pretty irrelevant when it comes to what we ought to do. In these debates, one group points to the scientific consensus that man-made climate change is happening while the other argues that the jury is still out. To be clear, there really is near consensus among scientists that man-made climate change is happening. A UN-backed panel of thousands of climate scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has said that “it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-twentieth century,” where they define “extremely likely” to mean at least 95 percent probability. One article reviewed four thousand papers that discuss global warming and reported that “97.1 percent endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.”

It doesn’t consider what the consequences would be if our best-guess estimates are wrong. This is especially important because the climate is an incredibly complex system that is difficult to predict, so we can’t be sure that our estimates are correct. When climate scientists make estimates about temperature rise, they have to acknowledge that there is a small but significant risk of a temperature increase that’s much greater than 2 to 4ºC. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gives more than 5 percent probability to temperature rises greater than 6ºC, and even acknowledges a small risk of catastrophic climate change, of 10ºC or more. To be clear, I’m not saying that this is at all likely, in fact, it’s very unlikely. But it is possible, and if it were to happen, the consequences would be disastrous, potentially resulting in civilizational collapse. It’s difficult to give a meaningful answer to the question of how bad that would be, but if we think it’s potentially catastrophic, then we need to revise our evaluation of the importance of mitigating climate change.

In the summer of 2013, President Barack Obama referred to climate change as “the global threat of our time.” He’s not alone in this opinion. The US secretary of state, John Kerry, called climate change “the greatest challenge of our generation”; former Senate majority leader Harry Reid has said that “climate change is the worst problem facing the world today,” and the cochair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Thomas F. Stocker called climate change “the greatest challenge of our time.” Are Obama and these other commentators correct? Is climate change the most important cause in the world today—a greater global priority than extreme poverty? How could we decide? A lot of people have asked these questions. Though foundations and social entrepreneurs often talk about trying to maximize their impact, they normally just focus on maximizing their impact within the cause or causes that they’re personally passionate about (like poverty, or education, or climate change), rather than thinking strategically about which causes they should focus on.


pages: 262 words: 83,548

The End of Growth by Jeff Rubin

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Ayatollah Khomeini, Bakken shale, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, deglobalization, energy security, eurozone crisis, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, fiat currency, flex fuel, full employment, ghettoisation, global supply chain, Hans Island, happiness index / gross national happiness, housing crisis, hydraulic fracturing, illegal immigration, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, labour mobility, McMansion, Monroe Doctrine, moral hazard, new economy, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, uranium enrichment, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce, working poor, Yom Kippur War, zero-sum game

It’s easy to see why most climate change scientists worry that China’s ambitious coal consumption targets will throw off enough carbon emissions to cook the atmosphere and trigger cataclysmic climate change: it is already a world-leading carbon emitter. But as we’ll explore later on, before global warming spells the end of the world, those same climate change scientists need to ask where China is going to get all the coal it’s expecting to burn. To fulfill the carbon emission projections made by groups like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Chinese economy may need to burn through the coal supplies of several planets. A few doors west, India’s fuel demands are also bolting higher. Overall, world coal consumption, according to the IPCC, is forecast to double over the next two decades. That covers the demand side of the equation. But we still need to ask where we’ll get all this coal. As growing power shortages across the country will attest, China is already struggling to come up with the 3.7 billion tons of coal it burns each year.

And the mainstream scientific community is coming closer to Lovelock’s view that global warming could unleash a climactic Armageddon if immediate steps aren’t taken to reduce emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the United Nations in 1988, comprises thousands of scientists and is the largest publisher of peer-reviewed climate change research in the world. In 2007, the organization shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for increasing public knowledge about climate change and laying the groundwork to counteract such change. In its latest comprehensive assessment report from 2007, the IPCC warns that human-generated emissions are causing global temperatures to rise. An increase of 4 degrees Celsius in the next hundred years, they say, would create devastating consequences for humanity.

Two hundred years of spewing filth into the atmosphere has to have had consequences for the biosphere. At the same time, I’m not losing much sleep worrying about the worst-case scenarios from Lovelock or the IPCC. I find the IPCC’s assumptions for economic growth—and, more to the point, fuel demand—hard to swallow. In its forecasts, the IPCC takes a business-as-usual approach to resource consumption. But projections that model the future by extrapolating from the quantity of hydrocarbons we currently burn are implausible. The Achilles heel of the dire predictions for climate change is the computer modeling by IPCC scientists that assumes our hydrocarbon consumption will continue to increase at the same rate over the next few decades as it has in the past. Economic growth drives carbon emissions. When growth is shuffled to the back burner in a static economy, emissions will come down too, removing the need for stringent climate change policies.

Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics by Francis Fukuyama

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Asian financial crisis, banking crisis, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, cognitive bias, cuban missile crisis, energy security, flex fuel, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John von Neumann, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Norbert Wiener, oil rush, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, packet switching, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, The Wisdom of Crowds, trade route, Vannevar Bush, Vernor Vinge, Yom Kippur War

See International Monetary Fund Immigration, 148, 149, 156, 161–62 Incentives: for good vs. bad predictions, 2, 171; against infectious disease preparedness, 87, 88, 89; political, 4, 171 Income gap, 137, 149 Income per capita: increases in, 137; and value of life, 11, 15 Incubation period, of SARS, 87 India: energy dependence of, 76; poverty rates in, 164; predictions of famine in, 135–36 Indian Ocean tsunami (2004), political barriers to preparing for, 10–11 Individualism, expressive, 133 Indonesia: breakup of, as future surprise, 106, 144; conditions before economic crisis in, 44, 46; effects of economic crisis in, 42, 47, 49 Inequality, income, 137, 149 Infectious disease, emerging, 82–90; drug resistance in, 84, 85; funding for response to, 89–90; gaps in preparation for, 83; global approach to, 83, 89–90; international regulations on, 88–89, 90; optimism vs. pessimism about prospect of, 129–30, 136; preparedness for, 85–86, 171; prevention of, 83–85; reporting on, 87, 88; response to, 87, 89–90; sources of, 82, 83; surveillance of, 86–87, 88; transmission of, 82–83, 85; treatment of, 84; vs. wellestablished disease, 84–85 Influenza pandemic: bird flu and, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86; funding for response to, 89–90; optimism vs. pessimism about prospect of, 129–30, 136; 2990-7 ch17 index 7/23/07 12:33 PM Page 190 190 1918–19 outbreak of, 83, 130, 136; preparedness for, 85; prevention of, 84, 85; response to, 87, 89–90; sources of future, 82; surveillance of, 86 Information collection, filters for, and strategic surprises, 99–100 Information processing, and strategic surprises, 100–01 Information technology innovation, 120–25; convergence of ideas in, 123–25; at DARPA, 63–65; individuals driving, 120–23; in scenario thinking, 110, 117–19; trends in, 120; U.S. leadership in, 58 Innovation organization, 59–70; DARPA model of, 63–67; definition of, 59; and energy dependence, 59–60, 67–70; fragmentation of, 62–63; at institutional level, 59, 63–67; at personal level, 59, 63–65; precursors to DARPA model of, 60–63; in World War II, 60–61 Inside-out perspective, 101–03 Institute of Medicine, 89 Institutional barriers: to energy innovation agency, 68–69; to preparedness, 2–5, 171 Institutional organization, of DARPA, 59, 63–67 Intel, 122–23 Intelligence, U.S.: examples of failures in, 41. See also Soviet Union collapse Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 113 International Energy Agency, 74, 77 International Health Regulations (IHR), 88–89, 90 International Monetary Fund (IMF): before East Asian economic crisis, 43, 48, 52, 170; response to East Asian economic crisis, 42, 48–49 International system, and climate change, 150–52 index Internet: access to knowledge through, 164–65; development of, 63–64, 123, 125; global changes caused by, 163 IPCC. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Iran: and oil dependence, 74; regional role of, 146; Russian-Chinese alliance and, 159; U.S. foreign policy toward, 76 Iranian revolution, U.S. intelligence on, 41 Iraq: future of, 147; in Gulf War, 71, 146; oil embargo by, 74; oil industry in, 71–73, 74; pre-war WMD estimates for, 2–3, 41 Iraq war (2003– ): accuracy of bombs in, 138; and Australian-U.S. relations, 145; bold vs. careful policies in, 109; mental models in planning for, 170; oil embargo used as threat, 74; oil production during, 71; scenario thinking about, 112; and U.S. national power, 157; WMD estimates in, 2–3, 41 Islam: and breakup of Indonesia, 144; and oil industry, 74, 75; political, rise of, 146 Islamic countries, demographics of, 132–33 Islamic fundamentalism: in Egypt, 108; in Indonesia, 144 Israel, past surprises in, 146 Italy: future surprises in, 108; political Left in, 149 Jamaah al-Islamiya, 144 Japan: demographics in, 142; after East Asian economic crisis, 49, 50, 53; before East Asian economic crisis, 44, 46–47 Java, 106 Judaism, 160 Kahn, Herman, 112 Kaminsky, Graciela, 45–46 2990-7 ch17 index 7/23/07 12:33 PM Page 191 index 191 Katrina, Hurricane: cost-benefit analysis of preparing for, 15; economic development and, 8; political barriers to preparing for, 11–12; predictability of, 3; as socio-surprise, 3 Kennan, George, 97 Kennedy, John F., 64 Khamenei, Ali, 74 Kim Jong-Il, 33 Kimmel, Husband, 2 Knowledge, access to, 137, 164–65 Korean War, 62 Krugman, Paul, on East Asian economy, 43, 48 Kurzweil, Ray, 154 Kuwait, in Gulf War, 71, 146 Kyoto Protocol, 151 Logic, in digital computers, 123–24 Loomis, Alfred, 60–61 Los Alamos National Laboratory, 58, 61, 63 Low-probability, high-impact events (LPHIs), 147–50 Low-probability events: bias and, 2–3; challenges of, 1–6; in definition of catastrophe, 7; hedging against, limits of, 3, 171; imagination applied to, 3, 8–9, 98; psychological preparedness for, 4; in rational choice model, 4 LPHIs.

They must make difficult decisions about how, and how extensively, to regulate such pollution; what new emissions-reducing technologies to develop; and how to help farmers, coastal communities, and other vulnerable parts of society adapt to coming changes. To help inform these debates, scientists, economists, and other scholars concerned with climate change have created a variety of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the twenty-first century. The most impressive and authoritative effort has been the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) sponsored by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).6 The creators of these scenarios worked hard to implement the approach practiced by Wack and Schwartz but fell far short of results that can help national governments seize the opportunities and avoid the dangers related to climate change. To assess the SRES effort, it is important to note the extent to which climate change presents a challenge of competing surprises. In one plausible future, greenhouse gas emissions will continue rising and the earth’s natural environment will change more rapidly and dramatically than anything in recorded human experience.

Treverton, Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information (Cambridge University Press, 2001). 3. As quoted by Ronald Suskind, “Without a Doubt,” New York Times Magazine, October 17, 2004. 4. P. F. Drucker, The Age of Discontinuity (New York: Harper and Row, 1968). 5. M. B. Ridgway, Soldier: The Memoirs of Matthew B. Ridgway (New York: Harper, 1956). 6. N. Nakicenovic, and others, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2000). 2990-7 ch16 notes contribs notes 7/23/07 12:17 PM Page 179 179 7. David G. Groves and Robert J. Lempert, "A New Analytic Method for Finding Policy-Relevant Scenarios," Global Environmental Change 17 (2007): 73–85. 8. R. J. Lempert, S. W. Popper, and S. C. Bankes, Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis, (Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND, 2003).


pages: 422 words: 113,525

Whole Earth Discipline: An Ecopragmatist Manifesto by Stewart Brand

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agricultural Revolution, Asilomar, Asilomar Conference on Recombinant DNA, back-to-the-land, biofilm, borderless world, Buckminster Fuller, business process, Cass Sunstein, clean water, Community Supported Agriculture, conceptual framework, Danny Hillis, dark matter, decarbonisation, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Elon Musk, Exxon Valdez, failed state, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, glass ceiling, Google Earth, Hans Rosling, Hernando de Soto, informal economy, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, invention of the steam engine, Jane Jacobs, jimmy wales, Kevin Kelly, Kibera, land tenure, M-Pesa, Marshall McLuhan, megacity, microbiome, New Urbanism, out of africa, Paul Graham, peak oil, Richard Florida, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, stem cell, Stewart Brand, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, Thomas Malthus, University of East Anglia, uranium enrichment, urban renewal, wealth creators, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, William Langewiesche, working-age population, Y2K

The idea of abruptness (in our paper and a number of others) changed the public conversation about climate change. For the first time, climate was understood as a clear and present danger, the responsibility of currently serving officials worldwide instead of some future generation’s problem. Public opinion on the subject began its own abrupt change. • If GBN’s scenario worries you, don’t worry. In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consulted twenty-three climate models and concluded that the widespread concern of climatologists about the Gulf Stream was misplaced. A Norwegian professor, Helge Drange, said, “The bottom line is that the atmosphere is warming up so much that a slowdown of the North Atlantic Current will never be able to cool Europe.” Or worry harder. A 2008 study of Greenland ice cores revealed that changes in the Gulf Stream appear to have triggered severe climate changes twelve thousand years ago that occurred not over decades but in one to three years.

Guanacaste Conservation Area, Costa Rica Guardian Guidetti, Geri Gwadz, Robert Haeckel, Ernst “Half Century of United States Federal Government Energy Incentives, A” (Bezdek and Wendling) Hallwachs, Winnie Hamming, Richard Hansen, James Hansson, Anders Harris, Michael Harrison, Jim Haseltine, William Hawaii Hawken, Paul Hawks, John heat waves Hebert, Paul Henderson, Donald herbicides Herman, Arthur Higgs, Eric High Country News Hillis, Danny Hiroshima, Japan HIV/AIDS Holdren, John Holistic Management (Savory) Homer-Dixon, Thomas Hopis horizontal gene transfer horses Howard, Albert Humanitarian Golden Rice Network hurricanes hybrid seeds hydroelectric power hydrogen ice-to-water albedo flip Idea of Decline in Western History, The (Herman) IEEE Spectrum iGEM Jamboree Iglesias-Rodríguez, Débora Illicit (Naím) “Implications of Rising Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere” (Conservation Foundation) Inconvenient Truth, An Independent India genetic engineering and Green Revolution and nuclear power and slums and Industry Association of Synthetic Biology informal economy infrastructure insect resistance insulin integral fast reactors integrated pest management intelligent design Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International Consortium for Polynucleotide Synthesis International Council of Science (ICSU) International Human Microbiome Consortium International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center International Rice Research Institute International Soil Reference and Information Centre International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Internet Internet Engineering Task Force Intertribal Bison Cooperative Intervention (Caruso) iron irrigation Islam, Muslims Italy jaguars Janzen, Daniel Japan atomic bombing of genetic engineering and nuclear power and Jefferson, Richard Jennings, Lois Judson, Horace Juniper, Tony Kahn, Herman Kahn, Lloyd Kaplan, Robert Kareiva, Peter Kaufman, Wallace Keeling, Charles Keith, David Kelly, Brian Kelly, Kevin Kenya Keynes, John Maynard Khosla, Vinod King, Franklin Hiram Kirk, Andrew Klaassen, Johann Kleiber’s law Knight, Tom Kohm, Kathy Korea, North Korea, South Kunstler, James Howard Kyoto Protocol (2001) L-1 Point (Inner Lagrange Point) Lackner, Klaus Lake Nyos, Cameroon, disaster in Lamarck, Jean-Baptiste Lament for an Ocean (Harris) landraces Langewiesche, William Lansing, Stephen Laquian, Aprodicio Last Forest, The (London and Kelly) Last Whole Earth Catalog Latham, John Latin America genetic engineering and see also specific countries Laws of Fear (Sunstein) LeBlanc, Steven LEED rating system Lehmann, Johannes Lerner, Jaime Lewis, John Liberation Biology (Bailey) Liferaft Earth Limits to Growth, The (Meadows et al.)

“We were surprised to find that areas that were suffering most from deforestation had the lowest population density and were far from markets,” he told New Scientist. The robust areas of forest were protected by their local villages: “If an outsider wants to use the forest, the only way to get permission is to marry into the clan.” Because of climate concerns, forests are now seen as crucial for their role in fixing and retaining carbon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that converting 2 billion acres of farmland to agroforestry (which integrates trees, shrubs, livestock, and row crops) would remove 50 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The World Agroforestry Centre suggests that “allowing farmers to sell that carbon on global carbon markets could generate as much as $10 billion each year for poor people in rural areas.” Forests change climate, and climate changes forests.


pages: 379 words: 108,129

An Optimist's Tour of the Future by Mark Stevenson

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23andMe, Albert Einstein, Andy Kessler, augmented reality, bank run, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, clean water, computer age, decarbonisation, double helix, Douglas Hofstadter, Elon Musk, flex fuel, Gödel, Escher, Bach, Hans Rosling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, invention of agriculture, Isaac Newton, Jeff Bezos, Kevin Kelly, Law of Accelerating Returns, Leonard Kleinrock, life extension, Louis Pasteur, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, off grid, packet switching, peak oil, pre–internet, Ray Kurzweil, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Rodney Brooks, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, smart cities, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steven Pinker, Stewart Brand, strong AI, the scientific method, Wall-E, X Prize

We’re told our cities may flood, whole nations may become uninhabitable, that the carrying capacity of the planet will plummet and wars will erupt as we fight for ever scarcer resources. Then we realise that climate science isn’t exact. To the non-science literate this makes the whole enterprise sound rather unsure of itself – and given the gravity of the possible outcomes, many people expect a stronger-worded case. (Ironically for many scientists, the consensus on the climate change threat, expressed in a series of IPCCIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – reports, represents the strongest wording any body of scientists has ever collectively come up with.) Then there’s the fact that the most important figure used in the climate change argument seems intuitively non-threatening – sure CO2 levels have gone up, but by a hundred parts per million. And the rise since the Industrial Revolution? About a thousandth of a per cent of the entire atmosphere.

Daniel 160, 164 Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, The 100 Hoek, Eric 118 Hofmeister, Anke 261–2 Hofstadter, Douglas 276 Holbrook 221–2, 239–40 Huggable 78 Human Security Brief 148 Huntington’s disease 44, 58 Huxley, Julian 13 I IBM 113, 125 identical twins 43 Imperial College London 31, 213 indium 195–6 Industrial Revolution 110, 115, 167, 171, 284–5 inequality 302 influenza virus 64–5, 69–70 Insomnia Cookies 93–4 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 149 Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology 69 Intelligent, Safe and Smart Built (ISSB) 119 interconnectedness Internet 151–8 nonzero-sum game 149–51 telegraph 145–7 and violent deaths 149 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 171, 172, 179, 180 International Association Synthetic Biology 68 International Gene Synthesis Consortium 68 Internet 147, 151–64, 268, 302 invariants 99 Iran 157 Isasi, Rosario 27 IVF 106 J Jackson, Ron 64 Jones, Richard 120–1, 124, 130 Joule Biotechnologies 57, 186–8, 189 JSB see Brown, John Seely Jungerbluth, Philip 20 Jurassic Park 39, 75 K Kahn, Bob 153, 159 Kármán line 133 Kasparov, Garry 82, 83, 86 Katter, Bob 171 Keeley, Lawrence 147 Keeling, Charles David 167 Keith, David 184 Kelly, Kevin 161 Kench, Paul 242 Kessler, Andy 43 Klein, Naomi 303 Kleinrock, Leonard 152 Kline, Charley 152 Knome 50 Konarka 190–1, 196–204, 206, 224, 295, 299 Kossel, Albrecht 37 Krummel, Glen 228 Kukla, George 178–9, 186 Kunfunadhoo Island 261–2, 266 Kurzweil, Ray 90, 267–78, 282, 293, 299, 303–4 and Brown, John Seely 285 posthumans 103–4, 268 The Singularity 88 transhumanism 21–2, 267–8 Kyrgyzstan 157 L Lackner, Klaus 173, 174–86, 188, 189, 259–60, 299, 301 Lana 224–5 Langley, Tim 212–19 Law of Accelerating Returns 51, 270–8, 293 Leber’s congenital amaurosis (LCA) 59–60 Legion of Extraordinary Dancers 155, 158, 294 Lehmann, Johannes 209–10 Leo 73–4, 75–6, 79, 80–2, 84–6, 102 Lewis, Dan 203 Licht, Stuart 184 life expectancy 12–13, 301 and income 27–8 longevity escape velocity 29–30 limited liability corporations 290–1 Lincoln, Abraham 265–6 Lipson, Hod 92, 94–6, 98–101, 102, 210, 272–3, 293, 299 longevity escape velocity 29–30 López, José 117 Lovell, Tony 222–40, 300 Lovelock, James 164, 172, 220 biochar 208–9, 210, 215 LS9 56–7, 61 Lynx spaceplane 142 M Maahlos 261 McConnell, James 17 MacDiarmid, Alan 196 ‘Machine Stops, The’ (Forster) 161 McNamara, Kaitlyne 20–1 Maes, Pattie 162–3 Maldives 241–62 Malé 249–50 Malthus, Thomas Robert 250 ‘Manchester Report, The’ 223, 224 Markram, Henry 90, 91 Martine, George 252–3 Masten Space Systems 136 Matrix, The 103 men life expectancy 12, 23 pregnancy 24 methane 230 Methuselah Foundation 21 Mexico 278–9 Miescher, Johannes Friedrich 37 Miller, Webb 41 Minsky, Marvin 102, 104 Miromatrix Medical 20 MIT 40, 262 Fluid Interfaces Group 162–3 Media Lab 77–8 nanotechnology 201 Smart Cities Group 200 Technology Review 16, 187 Mitchell, Bill 200 Mojave 131–3, 135–44 Monbiot, George 215, 303 Moombril 221–2, 239–40 Moore, Michael 303 Moorhead, Paul 18 Moravec, Hans 74, 84, 89–90 Morgan Stanley 193 Mosely, Andrew 231–5 Mosely, Megan 231–5 Mouchot, Augustin 192–3, 266 mousepox 63–4 Musk, Elon 136, 141 Myhrvold, Nathan 16 N Najning University 120 nanofactories 114–17, 125–6, 286 Nanoforum 120 nanoparticles 287 nanopunk 117 Nanosolar 202–3 Nanosystems (Drexler) 112, 124 nanotechnology 107, 108–30, 268, 301, 302 apocalypse 125–7 and energy 201 Grey Goo 121–3 products 117–21 Narrandera 237–8 NASA 134, 135, 136, 141, 170 Nasheed, Mohamed 243–9, 254–60, 262 National Academy of Engineering 125 National Academy of Sciences 125 National Center for Atmospheric Research 176 National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) 64–5 National Human Genome Research Institute 36 National Research Council 125 National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity 67–8 natural language 86–7 Nature 170 Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) 134 New Scientist 68 New York 172 New York University 120 New Zealand 206–20 New Zealand Wind Farms 208 Nexi 102 Niven, Larry 135 nonzero-sum games 149–51, 153–4, 270 Northwest Passage 177–8 Nouri, Ali 65 nuclein 37 O oil 193 Olovnikov, Alexey 52–3 Olshansky, Stuart Jay 12 oncogenes 46–7 optical telegraph 145–6 Optimist (cocktail) 220 organic conductive polymers 196–7, 198, 201 ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency 58–9 Ott, Harold 20 over-population 17–18 P Pakistan 157 Pan Am 133 parabolic surfaces 192 Parkinson’s disease 273–4 Partners in Health (PIH) 202 Personal Genome Project (PGP) 37, 42–3, 47–50, 51, 273 Personal Robots Group 73–4, 75–6, 77–82, 84–6, 102 Pew Charitable Trusts 119 Pew Research Center 168 phenylketonuria 44, 58 Picton 214–15, 217–18, 220 Pifre, Abel 192 Pinatubo, Mount 169 Pinker, Steven 83, 147, 149, 293 Pirbright Laboratory 68 Pistorius, Oscar 29, 300 Pleasance, Erin 40–1 Polonator G.007 50 Pontin, James 16 Popular Science Monthly 192 population 17–18, 249–54 pornography 158 Portugal 234–5 Power Plastic 196–7, 198, 204, 224 Prey (Crichton) 122 procreative beneficence 23 Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies 119 proteins 45–6 ProtoLife 66 Pygmalion (Shaw) 86 pyrolysis 209–10, 212–14 R Ranchos de Taos, New Mexico 234 Rankin, Sarah 31 Rasmussen, Lars 256 Rebek, Julius 124 reflection 86 Regis, Ed 112 Reicher, Dan 194–5 Rema 199 Reporters Without Borders 157 Revue des Deux Mondes 192 Rice University 118–19, 201 Ridley, Matt 270, 302–3 Roberts, Lawrence 152 Roberts, Paul 244, 248, 254 Robinson, Ken 265–6, 284, 288, 293 robots 73–92, 302 Leo 73–4, 75–6, 79, 80–2, 84–6 Nexi 102 Starfish 95–6, 98–9 Rofecoxib 49 Rosenthal, Elisabeth 254 Rosling, Hans 251, 254, 293 Rothemund, Paul 119, 120 Ruddiman, William 230 Rumsfeld, Donald 172 Rutan, Dick 140–1, 142, 143 S Sanger Institute 40–1, 51 Saudi Arabia 157 Savory, Allan 221, 226–7, 232 Savulescu, Julian 23 scalable efficiency 286 Scaled Composites 136, 139, 142 Schmidt, Michael 98, 99, 273 Schöni, Peter 220 Schuster, Stephen 41 Schweizer, Erhard 113 scientific method 96–8 self-replication 121–3 senescence 18, 53–4 Shadow Robot Company 74–5 Sharkey, Noel 76–7 Sharpe, Tom 256 Shaw, George Bernard 86 Shawcross, Lord 215 Shew, Ashley 109–10 Shirakawa, Hideki 196 Shivdasani, Eva 261 Shivdasani, Sonu 261 Siemens 193 silicon cells 195–7 Singularity 88, 268 Singularity is Near, The 268, 269, 271 Six Million Dollar Man, The 14 SixthSense 162–3 Skordalakes, Emmanuel 52, 53 Smalley, Richard 111, 122, 123, 201 SmartHand 103 Smolker, Rachel 216 Snider, Wayne 200 Socrates 96–7, 99 soil carbon 228–31, 233–5, 236–7, 238 soil charcoal 213–14 solar energy 190–1, 192–3, 194–205, 206, 274, 295, 302 Solar Thermal Electrochemical Photo Carbon Capture 184 Solarbuzz 205 Soneva Fushi 261–2 space 133–44, 302 Space Frontier Foundation 134 SpaceShipOne 135–6 SpaceShipTwo 136, 139, 142 SpaceX 136, 141 Sparrow, Rob 23–4 Speedy, Barb 218 Spielberg, Steven 75 Stan Winston Studio 75 Standage, Tom 146–7 Stanford University 20 Star Wars 76, 83, 102 Starfish 95–6, 98–9 Stark, Philip 158 Stellenbosch University 118 stem cells 19–21, 31, 301 Stiehl, Dan 78–9 Stoppard, Tom 281 Strong, Graham 237–8 StubbyGlove 228 Suel, Gurol 273 Suh, Yousin 53 Sun Tzu 40–1, 51–2 surveillance 127, 129 synthetic biology 55–8, 70 bacteria 56–8 bioterrorism 63–6, 68 control 66–70 genome engineering 60–3 viral gene therapy 58–60 Synthetic Genomics 56 Syria 157 Szostak, Jack 18 T Taylor, Doris 20 TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) 14, 153, 265–6, 291–5 Tefera, Elfenesh 199 telegraph 145–7, 297, 301 tellurium 195–6 telomerase 18–19, 45, 52–4 Terminator, The 76, 78, 103, 302 Tetrahymena 18 Thornton, Edward 146 thymine 37–9, 46 Toffler, Alvin 289 Tofu 79 transhumanism 13–18, 21–34, 45, 52–4, 267–8 transplants 19–21 Treder, Mike 126–7 tribes 155–6 Tripathy, Sukant 199 truth 96–8 Tsiolkovsky, Konstantin 114, 116, 125, 128 Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development 49 Tumlinson, Rick 133–4 Turing, Alan 88 Turkmenistan 157 Turney, Chris 213 twins 43 U underwater cabinet meeting 241–2, 245, 246–9, 258 Ungar, Georges 17 United Nations (UN) biosafety 68 Livestock’s Long Shadow 230 population 252 State of the World’s Forests 253 World Urbanisation Prospects 250 United States biofuels 187 carbon dioxide 184 electricity 285 global warming 168 oil 187, 188 science 279–80 space programme 134, 136 University of Bradford 149 University of Bristol 20 University of British Columbia 148 University of California 118–19 University of Maryland 201 University of Minnesota 20 University of Regensburg 125 University of Washington, Center for Conservation Biology 40 Uppsala University 148 Uzbekistan 157 V Venter, Craig 36, 47, 50, 56, 57, 58, 279 Vietnam 157 Vinsen, Mark 211–12 violence 147–51, 302 and interconnectedness 157–8 and Internet 244–5 and nanotechnology 126–7 Vioxx 49 viral gene therapy 58–60 Virgin Galactic 135–6, 141 vitrification 15 Voltaire 218 Voyager 140 W Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine 20 Wall-E 76 Ward, Bruce 222–40, 259, 300 wars 147–9 Watson, James 56 Web 154–5 Weitz, David 51 Weizenbaum, Joe 86 Weldon, Larry 190–1, 196–7 Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute 40–1, 51 Wemett, Tracy 190, 197, 204, 267, 276, 297 Wired 61, 112, 159 Witt, Stuart 137–40, 143, 144 women 23–4 Wonder, Stevie 269 wood gas 209 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 119 World Health Organisation 68, 69–70, 148, 149 World Transhumanist Association 25 worldchanging.com 158 Wright, Allen 179, 180 Wright, Burt 179, 180 Wright, Karen 224–5 Wright, Orville 132–3 Wright, Robert 149–51, 156, 158, 270, 293 Wright, Tim 224–5 Wright, Wilbur 132–3 X Xcel Energy 199, 200 XCOR Aerospace 136, 141–2 Y YouTube 155, 157, 294 Z Zhang, Jin 118 Zimbabwe 221, 226 Zittrain, Jonathan 153 Ziyad, Mohamed 254, 255–6 Zykov, Victor 95 * An interesting coda to Claudia’s story is that she nearly didn’t get her operation.

The normally calm research scientist lost his cool, not least because he was entertaining ‘a very important man from China, one of the first Chinese visitors that came here.’ Wally laughs. ‘We asked him whether the Chinese did pranks like that and he said: “Only small children.”’ But joking aside, Wally is one of the world’s top scientists, and when he talks about climate, people listen. He has kept himself apart from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change committees, instead giving his own accounts, based on sixty years of science. He insists the warming we’re seeing now is fundamentally different to historical shifts in the climate. ‘It’s bigger and faster,’ he tells me. Which naturally prompts the question ‘What can we do about it?’ The options generally presented are to do nothing (this from the sceptic camp), cut CO2 emissions (from optimistic climate activists) or engineer countermeasures to produce some kind of counteracting cooling effect.


pages: 350 words: 100,822

Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jörgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows

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agricultural Revolution, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, Climatic Research Unit, conceptual framework, dematerialisation, demographic transition, financial independence, game design, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), means of production, new economy, purchasing power parity, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, University of East Anglia, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review

Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 203. 85. Ibid., 167-176. 86. Ibid., 205. 87. WCED, Our Common Future, 224. 88. Robert T. Watson, chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, presenting the key conclusions of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (Climate Change 2001) to the Sixth Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, July 19, 2001. Available at www.ipcc.ch. 89. D. H. Meadows et al., Limits to Growth (New York: Universe Books, 1972), 79. 90. WWF, Living Planet Report 1999 (Gland, Switzerland: WWF, 1999), 8. 91. R. T. Watson et al., Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2001). Also available along with numerous illustrations atwwwipcc.ch. 92. For a colorful presentation of the skeptic's view on climate and all other environmental issues, see Lomborg, Environmentalist. 93.

None of the observations above proves that the ongoing climate change has human causes. Even if it has, the effects of global climate change on future human activity or ecosystem health cannot be predicted with certainty Some have exploited that uncertainty in an effort to create a state of confusion,92 and thus it is important to state clearly what we do know In this we rely on the several hundred scientists and researchers who make up the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which issues their carefully considered views approximately every five years:93 • It is certain that human activities, especially fossil fuel burning and deforestation, contribute to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. FIGURE 3-24 The Rising Global Temperature The global average temperature has risen over the past century by some 0.6°C. The dashed line represents annual averages; the thick line represents five-year running averages.

Bureau of Mines, Mineral Facts and Problems (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1970). International Energy Statistics Sourcebook, 14th ed. (Tulsa, OK: PennWell Pub. Co., 1999). International Energy Annual 2001 (Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2001) http: / /www.eia.doe.gov/ emeu / iea / contents.html. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Chapter 3.4.3.1, "Fossil and Fissile Resources," http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/071.htm (accessed 1/19/04). Figure 3-11 U.S. Oil Production and Consumption Basic Petroleum Data Book (Washington, D.C.: American Petroleum Institute, 1981). Annual Energy Review (Washington, D.C.: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Dept. of Energy) http:/ /wwweia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/tab05O2.htm. Figure 3-12 Scenarios for Global Oil Production Kenneth S.


pages: 339 words: 105,938

The Skeptical Economist: Revealing the Ethics Inside Economics by Jonathan Aldred

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airport security, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, citizen journalism, clean water, cognitive dissonance, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, Diane Coyle, endogenous growth, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, first-past-the-post, framing effect, greed is good, happiness index / gross national happiness, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, job satisfaction, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, labour market flexibility, laissez-faire capitalism, libertarian paternalism, new economy, Pareto efficiency, pension reform, positional goods, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RAND corporation, risk tolerance, school choice, spectrum auction, Thomas Bayes, trade liberalization, ultimatum game

But here I focus on environmental matters where many of the underlying problems with quantification arise in a particularly stark and challenging form. Before examining them in detail, it is worth taking a glimpse at policy debate on climate change in order to see exactly how the issues arise and how crucial they have become. Climate change battles The key organization charged with advising governments across the globe on climate change policy is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC has argued fiercely over the monetary valuation of human life — the argument nearly tore the IPCC apart. The argument was not about the notion of monetary value of human life itself, but the numbers involved. The standard view of market economics is, unsurprisingly, that the monetary values put on life, or decreased risk of death, should reflect values in markets. Economists argue that we can deduce how much people care about an increased or decreased risk of death by observing their behaviour in markets.

Land Economics 73: 492-507 Index ability to pay 87 absolute consumption 58-59 accountability 199, 205-206, 230 see also audit culture adaptation 23-24, 25, 237 and increasing happiness 66-67, 98, 140-141 to economic growth 55-57, 61-62 addictive consumption 22-24, 98 advertising brand recognition 16 consumer sovereignty 19-21 increased choice 41 restricting 236-237 affluenza 3, 235-238 altruism see unselfish behaviour animal lives 160 Aristotle 134, 135 audit culture 192-198, 202, 204-205 availability 15-16, 122 babies, markets in 181, 209 Baumol’s cost disease 68-74, 78, 237-238 affordability of personal services 74-77, 191 Baumol, William 68, 75, 76, 77 Bayesianism 164-166, 178, 224-225 Bayes, Thomas 164 Becker, Gary 27, 34 behavioural economics 26, 232-233, 234 belief 13 benefit transfer 157 Bentham, Jeremy 120-121, 130-131, 135 best practice 201, 202 Bewley, Truman 229 biodiversity 160 black box economics 1-2, 4 Blanchard, Oliver 48 Blinder, Alan 232 blood donation 33, 197, 217 body shape and weight 42 brand recognition 16, 21 Breyer, Stephen 156 Broome, John 154 Bush, George W. administration 146, 153, 156 capital investment 168 capital punishment 215-216 Caplan, Bryan 226-227 carbon trading markets 222, 223 cars advertising 20 ownership 42-43, 63 catastrophe, precautionary principle 173 charitable giving 27, 28, 33-34 choice 25-26 costs to consumers 39, 191 economic analysis 12-14, 25-26, 43-44 increasing options 39-43, 182-184, 192 inequalities of 43, 189-190, 209-210 ofjobs 101-102 psychologist analysis 14-19 in public services 184-186, 188-192, 205 rational 11-12, 21, 28, 164-165 see also decision making choice advisers 191 citizen’s income 97 citizens’ juries 214, 215 climate change 2, 21, 146, 147-151, 159, 218 precautionary principle 173 valuing the future 161, 162 commodification 179-181, 206-216 alternatives to CBA 213-216 limits to monetary valuation 216-219 meaning of monetary valuation 207-210 rational decision making 211-213 commuters 56, 57 compensation argument for rates of pay 99-103, 105 competitive consumption 24-25, 57-62, 62-63 congestion 60-61 consumers 11-45 addictive consumption 22-24, 98 choice in public services 182-192 competitive consumption 24-25, 57-62, 62-63 preference satisfaction 37-43 rational choice 11-12 self-interest 26-36 shopping 12-19 sovereignty myth 19-22, 25, 156, 158, 225 consumption future 168 see also consumers context-specific valuation of risk 157-158 contingent valuation surveys 152, 157 contracts 203-204 contribution argument for rates of pay 103-108 coordination problem 63 cost-benefit analysis (CBA) 145-178 alternatives to 173-174, 213-216 best practice 201, 202 climate change 2, 146, 147-151, 159 determining preferences 39 of emotions 30-31 limits to monetary quantification 175-178 valuing the future 161-173 valuing human life 147-148, 151-160, 209 valuing nature 160-161 Coyle, Diane 2 cream-skimming 189-190, 210 cultural differences in perception of happiness 118-120 cultural value 207 Damasio, Antonio 44 decision making 174, 175, 176-177, 211-214 see also cost-benefit analysis (CBA) declining discount rates 169-170 democracy and accountability 199, 206, 230 and CBA 172-173, 176-177, 214 economics as 225, 227-228 valuing life 158-159 see also politics deserving what we earn 99-109 desire 13 Dickens, Charles 138 digital TV 41, 42 diminishing marginal utility 95, 158-159 disappointment 41 discounting 149, 166-173, 176, 178, 226, 234 doctors 2, 70, 91, 106-107 decisions on behalf of patients 186-187 drugs 128 earnings 79-80 differences in 99-109 personal services sector 70-71 see also performance-related pay (PRP); taxation economic growth 47-78, 168, 170 adaptation to 55-57, 61-62 affordability of personal services 74-77 alternative form of 236-238 and consumer sovereignty 21-22 and happiness 48-55, 61-62, 66-68, 141-142 meaning and measurement of 64-66 rivalry 57-62, 62-63 self-help 62-64 and taxation 88, 89 and work 235-236 see also Baumol’s cost disease economic imperialism 180, 222-223, 233 ecosystem services 160-161 education as a positional good 60-61, 190 reflected in pay 100, 105, 106 to enable pursuit of a good life 136, 236 education services 69, 237-238 choices 185-186 goals 202 inequality 189 supply and demand 190 efficiency 4-6, 8, 177 personal services 75, 191 taxation 93, 94, 95-98, 111-112, 237 effort 108 Ellsberg Paradox 164-165 emotions and choosing public services 185 and complex choices 40-41, 42 and monetary incentives 197 and prediction of satisfaction 16 and self-interest 30-31 employment 48, 53, 142, 235-236 Environmental Protection Agency (US) (EPA) 151 ethics 7-9, 224-228, 239 consumers 34-36, 37-38, 44 desert 108 and efficiency 5-6, 112 impartiality across generations 166-167, 171-172 limits to monetary valuation 216-219 monetary value for human life 150, 159-160 personal 138 principled disagreement 201-202 for public policy 133-139, 140-141, 142, 177, 234 view of discount rates 170-171 Experience Machine 127 Experience Sampling Method 123,124 fairness and efficiency 94-98 framing effects 14-15, 16, 18, 197 Frank, Robert 56 Freakonomics 1, 31-32, 34, 233 free trade 5-6 Friedman, Milton 7 future generations, discounting 166-167, 168-169, 171-172 future outcomes discounting 149, 166-173 precautionary principle 173-174 see also probabilities gambling games 164 game theory 222, 233 goals happiness 125, 126, 129-133 monetary incentives 200-201 for public services 199, 201-202 self interest 17, 37 Goodhart’s Law 141, 192, 194, 202, 223-224 governments auditing public services 203-204 consumer sovereignty 30, 38, 186 economic growth 47-48, 49, 68 Greatest Happiness principle 137-138 policy and CBA 150, 154, 157, 160, 172-173, 175, 215-216 policy for maximizing happiness 141-143 rights of ownership 81-82, 84-85 setting priorities 210 trust in 230-231 Greatest Happiness principle 127-133, 136-138 growth paths 65, 66 guilt 27, 28, 30-31 habitat destruction 160 Hahn, Robert 163 happiness 113-143 adaptation to material improvement 55-57 defining 114-116, 120-121, 134 and economic growth 48-55, 61-62, 66-68 maximized through extending choice 183 maximized through pay incentives 109 maximized through taxation 94-98 measurement of 53-54, 116-126, 139-140, 141, 224 philosophy of 126-133 and public ethics 133-139 as public policy 140-143 of service providers 191 happiness economics 50-55, 64, 78, 115, 122 alternative form of economic growth 236-237 and politics 137-138, 141-143 happiness treadmill 23, 24, 55 see also satisfaction treadmill Harrod, Sir Roy 59 Hayeck, Friedrich von 27-28 health insurance (US) 189-190 health services 69, 71-72, 237-238 difficulty in choosing 184-185 inequality in 189-190 productivity improvements 70, 74 see also doctors Heckman, James 188 higher pleasures 130-131, 135-136 Hirsch, Fred 59, 63 holiday entitlements 58, 59 holidays 17 Homo economicus 27, 29-36, 44, 111,178 and behavioural economics 232 determining preferences 39 location in brain 225-226 self-fulfilling assumption 224 service providers 187 and trust 230-231 useful context for 222-223 hours of work 91-92, 105, 108 House of Lords (UK) report on climate change 148, 150 human life discounting 168 monetary value of 21, 147-148, 151-160, 207-208 Quality-Adjusted Life Years 176 Hume, David 129 identity 24-25, 42, 154 ignorance 162 incentive to work 89-92, 104, 109 and tax 109-112 see also audit culture; monetary incentives income adaptation to 23-24 and happiness 52-54 relative 57-58, 59-60, 62 see also earnings; taxation income effect 91, 92 income tax see taxation inconspicuous consumption 59 inefficiency see efficiency inequality acceptability of 79-80 and choice in public services 188-190, 209-210 effect on happiness 54 rates of pay 99-109 information for consumers advertising 19-20 complexity in public services 184-185 inheritance 81, 86, 99 genetic 101, 108 in-kind valuations 213—214 intellectual diversity 229 interest rates 167—168, 169 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 147-148, 158 internet 43 interpersonal utility comparisons 49-50 Israeli day-care centres study 32 Japan, economic growth and happiness 52 Jefferson, Thomas 130 Jevons, William Stanley 49 job centre case workers 188, 202 Kahneman, Daniel 25-26, 124 objective happiness 114, 121, 125, 126 Peak-End evaluations 17, 122, 125 Keynes, John Maynard 6, 177, 235 Kyoto Protocol 146, 148 labour costs see Baumol’s cost disease labour market 5, 72, 142 language 87, 239 and reporting happiness 116-117, 118-119 law-breakers 34-35 Layard, Richard 121, 126, 137 alternative form of economic growth 236-237 Greatest Happiness principle 129-130, 132-133 happiness drugs 128 Le Grand, Julian 184, 186, 187, 188-189, 195-198 libertarianism view of taxation 82, 84, 86 widening choice 183, 205 libertarian paternalism 227-228 life expectancy 54 limited edition products 60 Locke, John 84 lost wallets 27, 28, 30 love 27, 208 luck and responsibility 105-106 marginal tax rates 96-97 market imperfections 218 market prices 33, 107 market rates of pay 99 compensation argument 100-101, 102, 103 contribution argument 103, 104, 106-107 putting a value on human life 147-148, 152-155 mental illness 3, 42, 54 Mill, John Stuart 130-131, 135-136, 183 mobile phone spectrum auctions 222 monetary incentives 30, 31-33, 195-198, 217 public services 200-201 see also performance-related pay (PRP) monetary quantification see commodification; cost benefit analysis (CBA) money corrosive effects of 209 see also monetary incentives mood 121-122, 125 moral convictions 217 motivation intrinsic 33, 195, 197, 200-201 public service staff 186-188, 191-198, 199, 200-201, 206 see also self-interest; status seeking national product 64-65, 70 natural talents 99, 101, 102, 105 nature ownership rights 210 putting a value on 160-161, 208, 213-214 neuroscience 50, 115-116, 117-118, 225-226 news media current perceptions of economics 6-7 doctrine of self-interest 34 silence on Baumol’s cost disease 68-69, 77 Nietzche, Friedrich Wilhelm 119 non-economic impacts 7 non-renewable resources 168 Nozick, Robert 127 Nussbaum, Martha 131 objective happiness 114, 121, 125, 126, 127 objective list theories 134-136 optimal tax theory 95-98 optimization 233 options 13-16 increasing 39-43, 182-184, 192 ownership principle 80-87, 218 pay see earnings; performance-related pay (PRP) Peak-End evaluation 17-18, 122, 125-126 perceived happiness 140 perfect preferences 37-39, 43, 135-136 performance-related pay (PRP) 33, 193-194, 195-198, 200, 237 performative contradiction 231 performative economics 223-224 personal services 69-77, 237-238 Peter the plumber 92-93 pleasure 22-23, 130-131, 134, 135 policy entrepreneurs 1-2 political economics 230-231, 233 political forums 214, 215 politics democracy and CBA 172-173, 177, 215 and happiness economics 137-138, 141-143 poll taxes 93-94 positional goods 59-61, 63, 190, 236, 237 post-tax distribution 85—86, 87, 98 precautionary principle 173—174 preferences 13, 14, 135—136, 225 and advertising 19—20 of future generations 168-169 pure time 166-167, 172 revealed by choices 21, 64 risk 156, 159, 176 satisfaction 37-43 pre-tax economic activity 92-93, 94 pre-tax income 80-84 pricelessness 209, 210 principled disagreement 201-202 priorities audit culture 193, 202 government policy 38, 50, 141,142 private property 80-81 probabilities 150, 154, 155, 161-162, 164-166 productivity 65-66 high earners 96-97 personal services 70-72, 73-74, 75-76 and taxation 88, 89, 90 progressive tax systems 96, 97 psychological well-being (PWB) 134-135 psychology 14-19 see also behavioural economics public opinion 214 public perception of risk 153, 155-156 public service ethos 194, 199-201, 205, 210,219 public services 68, 74-75, 180 affordability 74-77, 237-238 and attitudes to taxation 110-111 audit culture 192-198 complexity and importance 184-185 distinctiveness of 198-206, 216-217 ensuring real choice 188-192 implications of choices for others 185-186 motivation of service providers 186-188, 191-198, 199, 200-201, 206 trust 203-206 widening choice 182-184 see also Baumol’s cost disease pure time preference 166-167, 172 qualitative factors 163 Quality-Adjusted Life Years 174 quality of life 3, 236 measurement of 49-50, 50-55 and public ethics 135-139 quantifying the unquantifiable 162-166 targets 193 Ramsey, Frank 167 rational choice 11-12, 21, 28, 164-165 see also decision making Rawls, John 99, 101, 102 redistribution 86, 88, 92-94 maximization of happiness 95-98 Rees, Bill 232 regret 41, 42 relationships, putting a value on 208 relative consumption 58-59, 61 relative income 57-58, 59-60, 62 research objectives and methods 228-230 responsibility 41, 100, 105 rights 82, 83, 181, 210, 218 rigour in research methods 229 risk monetary value of 21, 151-158, 178, 211 versus uncertainty 161-166 rivalry 24-25, 57-62, 62-63, 237 and increasing happiness 66-67, 98 sacrifice 196 satisfaction treadmill 125, 126, 140 see also happiness treadmill scarcity 59-61, 106-107 science and economics 1, 8, 50, 224, 225,227, 228-230 Greatest Happiness principle 131-133 see also neuroscience self-control 18-19 self-help 62-64 self-interest 12, 13, 17-19, 26-36 and consumer sovereignty 21-22 politicians and economists 230-231 public service providers 187, 188 self-fulfilling assumptions of 31-34, 223 self-reported happiness see surveys, happiness Sen, Amartya 132, 136, 234 Shaw, George Bernard 208, 210 shopping 11, 12 addiction and compulsion 22-26 economist perspective 12-14 psychologist perspective 14-19 smiley-face sampling 124, 130 smiling 119-120 Smith, Adam 6 smoking 18-19, 132, 135 spare capacity in public services 190 standard of living 48 state benefits 85-86 statistical lives 151-152, 154, 207-208 status anxiety 24-25 status seeking 58-61, 62-63, 236 Stern Review 148-149, 150, 166 substitution effect 91, 92, 96 subtractive method 117 supply and demand in public services 189, 190 rates of pay 100, 101, 105, 106 surveys 214 contingent valuation 152, 157 happiness 53-54, 114-115, 116-117, 118-124, 130, 137 public services users 182 sustainability 171 sustainable development 173 Sutton, Willie 34 targets see audit culture taxation 76, 79-98 cigarettes 132 effect on work 88-92 evasion 35 incentive to work 109-112 ownership principle 80-87 redistribution 86, 88, 92-94 to maximize happiness 94-98, 237-238 teachers 70 team working 193, 194 technical innovation 65, 70, 73-74 theory and self-fulfillment 223-224 Titmuss, Richard 33 trade-offs 13 complex choices 40-41 economic growth 63-64 life 160, 211 taxation 94, 95, 97 The Truman Show 127 trust 203-206, 230-231 TWA Flight 800 163 ultimatum game 29, 33-34 uncertainty and the precautionary principle 173 and risk 161-166 unselfish behaviour 27-28, 29 reaction to manipulation 31-32 service providers 187-188 utilitarianism 120-121, 126-133, 135,136,138-139, 183 Uttal, William 117 value judgements see ethics value for money 212 veto economics 2-3, 6, 227 Viscusi, Kip 153 volunteers 195 wage differentials 152-153, 157 Weitzman, Martin 169 work and employment 235-236 hours of 91-92, 105, 108 see also incentive to work worker inputs and outputs 104-105 Table of Contents Contents Acknowledgements Chapter One - Introduction: Ethical Economics?

Poor people are worth less, on any measure of their value reflected in market prices or surveys. In drafting the second IPCC report, most governments completely rejected this view, but a group of economists insisted that the report should include it: ‘A careful reading of the fine print revealed that they were valuing lives in rich countries at $1,500,000, in middle-income countries at $300,000, and in lowest-income countries at $100,000.’4 The final report heavily qualified this approach, but not because any consensus was reached: ‘The outcome of it all was that the IPCC is very reluctant to engage in that controversy again because the proponents on both sides are still there and obviously still willing to have another fight if the opportunity was given to them.’5 And in preparing subsequent reports, the IPCC has attached less importance to ubiquitous monetary valuation.


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Peers Inc: How People and Platforms Are Inventing the Collaborative Economy and Reinventing Capitalism by Robin Chase

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3D printing, Airbnb, Amazon Web Services, Andy Kessler, banking crisis, barriers to entry, basic income, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), bitcoin, blockchain, Burning Man, business climate, call centre, car-free, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, commoditize, congestion charging, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, decarbonisation, don't be evil, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, ethereum blockchain, Ferguson, Missouri, Firefox, frictionless, Gini coefficient, hive mind, income inequality, index fund, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, jimmy wales, job satisfaction, Kickstarter, Lean Startup, Lyft, means of production, megacity, Minecraft, minimum viable product, Network effects, new economy, Oculus Rift, openstreetmap, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, peer-to-peer model, Richard Stallman, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, six sigma, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, Snapchat, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Crocker, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, TaskRabbit, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Future of Employment, The Nature of the Firm, transaction costs, Turing test, turn-by-turn navigation, Uber and Lyft, Zipcar

“Vint Cerf Pt. 1,” The Colbert Report, July 15, 2014, http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/videos/08a2dg/vint-cerf-pt—1. 16. Gordon Rosenblatt, “Google’s Biggest Competitor Is Amazon,” Medium.com, October 18, 2014, https://medium.com/@gideonro/the-google-amazon-slugfest-8a3a07a1d6dd. 17. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report,” November 1, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr. 18. World Bank, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided,” report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, November 1, 2012. 19. Ibid. 20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.” 21. Jim Robbins, “Building an Ark for the Anthropocene,” New York Times, September 27, 2014. 22. “London Congestion Charge,” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_congestion_charge. 23.

Since then most of my talks, writing, consulting, and start-ups have focused on getting us closer to a more sustainable world. My mind, though, was truly opened when I read the much talked-about World Bank report “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided.” The World Bank is a very conservative financial institution, very capitalistic, very market-driven. Its report was compiled from the same source materials consulted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its November 2014 synthesis report and was reviewed by the same top scientists.17 The top-line finding: Even if every country does everything it has promised to do in order to reduce CO2 emissions, we are on track for a 4°C (7°F) increase in average global temperature by 2100.18 Since I had no idea what such an increase actually implies, I decided to search historical climate temperatures to see what the world was like when it was 4°C cooler than it is now and get a sense of what changes such a shift had already brought about.

See Regulations Hackathons, 39–40 Hagel, John, 178 Hansen, James, 232 Hardware, in-vehicle, 14 Haselmayer, Sascha, 170–171, 173 Heiferman, Scott, 238–239 HelloWallet, 41 HelpAround, 82–83 Heminway, Mark, 15–16 Hemmesch, Annie, 82–83 Hilton Hotels, 74 Hives, as innovative distribution mechanism, 235–236 Hoffman, Reid, 127 “How to Run Your Own Apps for Democracy Innovation Contest,” 40 Humans, working in conjunction with computers, 85–87 Hurricane Sandy, lessons learned, 243–244 IKEA, resistance to change, 175 Income enabling various sources, 58–59 rising inequalities, 187–188, 195–196, 220–221 India, auto rickshaw innovation, 239–243 Individual strengths, 18 Indonesia, forest fires, 230–232 Industrial economy vs. collaborative, 18–19, 250 prior to Internet, 249 valuing corporation over people, 253 Industrial model, 164–166 Industrial strengths, 18 InnoCentive, 83 Innovation Apollo 13, 222–223 dictated by platform structure, 44–45 gap between idea and service, 172–173 no permission required, 141, 142 open platforms, 104–107 reforming Defense Intelligence Agency, 167–169 Instacart, 55 Institutions benefiting from peer collaboration, 61–68 lack of flexibility, 188–189 sustainability efforts, 226–229. See also B corp See also individual names Insurance health. See Benefits, workers’ and ridesharing, 154–155 Intellectual property, sharing. See Free and open-source software (FOSS); Open platforms; Patents, opening Intercontinental Hotel Group, 73–74 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 90–91 Internet economy before and since, 249–250 as government creation, 140–141 and platforms to tap excess capacity, 17–18 Internet service providers (ISPs), conflicts of interest, 123 Investments, private, 197–199, 200–202 iPhone, apps as excess capacity use, 26–27 Jacobs, Jane, 99 Jobs, Steve, 26–27 Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, 205 Kahneman, Daniel, 86 Kernel.


pages: 411 words: 108,119

The Irrational Economist: Making Decisions in a Dangerous World by Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Paul Slovic

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Andrei Shleifer, availability heuristic, bank run, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, clean water, cognitive dissonance, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, conceptual framework, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cross-subsidies, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, endowment effect, experimental economics, financial innovation, Fractional reserve banking, George Akerlof, hindsight bias, incomplete markets, information asymmetry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, iterative process, Kenneth Arrow, Loma Prieta earthquake, London Interbank Offered Rate, market bubble, market clearing, money market fund, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Pareto efficiency, Paul Samuelson, placebo effect, price discrimination, price stability, RAND corporation, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, source of truth, statistical model, stochastic process, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, ultimatum game, University of East Anglia, urban planning, Vilfredo Pareto

This proposal, known as the Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII), offers a practical way of building an international regime for social protection. WEATHER EXTREMES: WHY THE POOR SUFFER THE MOST The impacts of natural hazards on economic well-being have escalated alarmingly in recent decades. Although increased population and wealth in vulnerable areas remain the main factors in explaining rising losses, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that extreme event impacts are “very likely” to change because of increasing weather variability.3 There is even mounting evidence of a current “climate signal,” with the IPCC (2007) reporting observations of widespread changes in temperature, wind patterns, and aspects of extreme weather, including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves, and the intensity of tropical cyclones. With over 95 percent of disaster fatalities and far greater relative economic losses occurring in low- and middle-income countries, the poor suffer the most (see Figure 25.1).

Hurricane Betsy Hurricane Camille Hurricane Diane Hurricane Hugo, insured losses from Hurricane Ike Hurricane Katrina floods of government aid following impact of insured losses from Mississippi Gulf Coast and New Orleans and policy innovation and recovery from reinsurance/actuarial value after (table) Hurricane Rita, reinsurance/actuarial value after(table) Hurricane Wilma, reinsurance/actuarial value after(table) Hurricanes damage from fiscal deficits and reinsurance against risk for tourism economy and Incentives Inconvenient Truth, An (Gore) Influenza pandemics Information asymmetric as commodity economic assumption of interpreting/manipulating limited meaning of measuring acquisition of processing seeking value of Infrastructure Management and Extreme Events Program Institute for Defense Analysis (IDA) Institutions, reinventing Insurance accident adequate auto benefits/costs/challenges of buying car rental catastrophe contracts crop decisions about deposit development assistance and disaster assistance and earthquake efficiency and excessive fire flight government health index-based homeowners Insurance (continued) hurricane international support for life long-term low-deductible mitigation and mortgage municipal bond prevention and pricing pricing (risk-based) principles private public relief and risk and subsidized terrorism underinsurance unemployment vouchers Insurance Assistance Facility Insurance contracts long-term short-term Insurer solvency, thoughts on Integrated Assessment Models Interdependence growth of weak links and Interdependent security (IDS) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Intervention Intuition moral Investment “Irrational Economist, The” conference Irrationality Jaffee, Dwight Johnson, Eric Johnson, Lyndon environmental issues and Johnson, Steven Journal of Risk and Uncertainty Judgment Just-in-time society Just, Richard Kahneman, Daniel Kasperson, Roger Keelin, Tom Keeney, Ralph Kennedy, John F.

But as indicated by the above-cited remark he made to the Sierra Club, Nixon saw that the times required environmental action and provided the voting public with what it wanted. On the one hand, the times we’re in today are rather like the 1960s and early 1970s: There is again a widespread intuition that we are doing something potentially disastrous to the environment. There is nobody as eloquent as Rachel Carson in Silent Spring, but Al Gore’s documentary An Inconvenient Truth and his Nobel Prize have had an impact, as have the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Stern Review, other official bodies emphasizing the changes we are forcing in our most basic environmental systems, and the stream of television documentaries about the threats to forests and marine life. On the other hand, there is a major difference between the environmental issues we face today and those that precipitated the flurry of legislation under Johnson and Nixon.


pages: 829 words: 186,976

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't by Nate Silver

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airport security, availability heuristic, Bayesian statistics, Benoit Mandelbrot, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, big-box store, Black Swan, Broken windows theory, Carmen Reinhart, Claude Shannon: information theory, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, cognitive dissonance, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collateralized debt obligation, complexity theory, computer age, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, diversification, Donald Trump, Edmond Halley, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, en.wikipedia.org, equity premium, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, everywhere but in the productivity statistics, fear of failure, Fellow of the Royal Society, Freestyle chess, fudge factor, George Akerlof, haute cuisine, Henri Poincaré, high batting average, housing crisis, income per capita, index fund, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet Archive, invention of the printing press, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, John Nash: game theory, John von Neumann, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, locking in a profit, Loma Prieta earthquake, market bubble, Mikhail Gorbachev, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, Monroe Doctrine, mortgage debt, Nate Silver, negative equity, new economy, Norbert Wiener, PageRank, pattern recognition, pets.com, Pierre-Simon Laplace, prediction markets, Productivity paradox, random walk, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Saturday Night Live, savings glut, security theater, short selling, Skype, statistical model, Steven Pinker, The Great Moderation, The Market for Lemons, the scientific method, The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, too big to fail, transaction costs, transfer pricing, University of East Anglia, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, wikimedia commons

See section 2.7 in “IPCC Second Assessment: Climate Changes 1995,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 5. It refers to a “best estimate” of a 2°C increase in global mean surface temperatures in the 110 years between 1990 and 2100, which works out to approximately 1.8°C per 100 years. The note also expresses a range of projections between 0.9°C and 2.7°C in warming per century. So, even the high end of the IPCC’s 1995 temperature range posited a (slightly) lower rate of warming than its best estimate in 1990. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/climate-changes-1995/ipcc-2nd-assessment/2nd-assessment-en.pdf. 84. Pielke, Jr., “Verification of IPCC Temperature Forecasts 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001319verification_of_ipcc.html. 85.

Gavin Schmidt, “Green and Armstrong’s Scientific Forecast,” RealClimate.org, July 20, 2007. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/07/green-and-armstrongs-scientific-forecast/. 50. “Occam’s Razor;” Wikipedia.org. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam’s_razor. 51. John Theodore Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, J. J. Ephraums, eds. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990). http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf. 52. “1.6: The IPCC Assessments of Climate Change and Uncertainties” in Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch1s1-6.html. 53. “New York Snow: Central Park Sets the October Record from Noreaster,” Associated Press via Huffington Post, October 29, 2011. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/29/new-york-snow-noreaster_n_1065378.html. 54.

“Nauru: General Data of the Country,” Populstat.info. http://www.populstat.info/Oceania/naurug.htm. 7. One common technique requires adults to dutifully record everything they eat over a period of weeks, and trusts them to do so honestly when there is a stigma attached to overeating (and more so in some countries than others). 8. J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, “Report Prepared for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Working Group I,” Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p. XI. 9. David R. Williams, “Earth Fact Sheet,” NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, last updated November 17, 2010. http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/earthfact.html. 10. Yochanan Kushnir, “The Climate System,” Columbia University. http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/lectures/radiation/. 11.


pages: 369 words: 98,776

The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas

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Airbus A320, back-to-the-land, Berlin Wall, carbon footprint, clean water, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, dematerialisation, demographic transition, Haber-Bosch Process, ice-free Arctic, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, moral hazard, Negawatt, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, planetary scale, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, Ronald Reagan, special drawing rights, Stewart Brand, University of East Anglia

; descent of; birth of; brain development; drive hominid relatives to oblivion; Pleistocene overkill and Hudson River Huhne, Chris Hurricane Katrina Hybrid: The History and Science of Plant Breeding (Kingsbury) hydroelectric dams/power hydrogen as fuel hydrological cycle hydrological engineering Independent India: carbon emissions; alternatives to high carbon aviation; hydroelectricity in; vultures in; pollution in; black carbon and; Copenhagen summit and Indonesia Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) International Energy Agency (IEA) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Whaling Commission (IWC) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) irrigation Israel IUCN Red List J. Craig Venter Center Jackson, Jeremy Jacobson, Mark Japan: earthquake and tsunami, 2011; climate change in; Fukushima disaster, 2011 Jordan River Journal of Geophysical Research keystone/apex predators Kruger, Tim Kunin, Professor Bill Kyoto Protocol, 1997 Labrador Sea Lake District Lake Powell land use boundary; human impact on; importance of ecological zones; a plan for land; protected land; global value of wilderness; intensification of farming and; integrated pest management; agroforestry; aquaculture; meat and energy; REDD; population growth and urbanization Leipold, Gerd Lenton, Tim Les Rois Liberal Democratic Party life, creating new forms of; origin of Limits to Growth report, 1972 Lovelock, James Lovins, Amory Lucas, Caroline Madagascar Mahli, Yadvinder malaria Maldives: levy on diving trips considered; climate change and; Copenhagen summit and; pledges carbon neutrality Malua Forest Reserve mass extinctions Max Planck Institute McKibben, Bill McNeill, John megacities “megafauna fruit” Mekong delta mercury Merkel, Angela Met Office Hadley Centre, U.K.

Another difference between ozone and climate is that authoritative scientific assessments have not been as successful in convincing naysayers about the latter as they were with the former. This is not due to any shortcomings in the scientific process: Evidence about the reality of global warming is far more overwhelming today than it was about the threat to the ozone layer in the mid-1980s. Nor have the experts failed to speak with one voice: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has delivered unimpeachably weighty assessments over the years, underlining its growing confidence about the science on climate change. But with climate the reactionary backlash has been unprecedentedly successful. It is almost forgotten now, but there was a denialist backlash against ozone regulation too, centered in the U.S. in the mid-1990s, which swayed some important politicians.

Deniers promoting the so-called “Climategate” affair took a few out-of-context quotes and superficially embarrassing private slips by leading scientists from some leaked emails and nearly managed to publicly discredit not only the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia but several other leading institutes too. Vociferous promoters of a subsequent scandal took a single mistake about Himalayan glaciers, buried deep in the second weighty tome of the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, and used it to attack the entire IPCC process, and the role of Chair Rajendra Pachauri in particular. None of this changed anything we knew—anything that mattered—about the reality of climate change, but the deniers succeeded in making climate science an ideological battleground, where the expert consensus was rejected by whole political parties and large sections of the media as itself partisan. The failure of climate policymaking has been a self-reinforcing process.


pages: 412 words: 113,782

Business Lessons From a Radical Industrialist by Ray C. Anderson

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Albert Einstein, banking crisis, carbon footprint, centralized clearinghouse, clean water, cleantech, corporate social responsibility, Credit Default Swap, dematerialisation, distributed generation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fear of failure, Gordon Gekko, greed is good, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invisible hand, late fees, Mahatma Gandhi, market bubble, music of the spheres, Negawatt, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, old-boy network, peak oil, renewable energy credits, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, six sigma, supply-chain management, urban renewal, Y2K

It makes you wonder, what part of unsustainable do they not understand? The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently issued a report that lays the blame for global climate disruption at our feet with a more than 90 percent certainty. They said, “Greenhouse gas forcing has very likely (>90 percent) caused most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years. This conclusion takes into account … the possibility that the response to solar forcing could be underestimated by climate models. Many climate doubters and global warming deniers have raised some serious questions about how the IPCC came up with that 90 percent figure—indeed, about how they decided on anything at all. And the thing is, perversely, I find I am in agreement with them, but for very different reasons. Here’s an amazing revelation from studying the IPCC’s methods.

Government representatives were allowed to vote on and revise the IPCC summaries, no matter what the data said. As a direct result, China (think coal) and Saudi Arabia (oil) got to veto anything they didn’t like. The United States (think do nothing) also had line-by-line veto power. You can imagine what happened in a swamp like that. The deniers call this “politicized science” and say that the IPCC summaries were just one big exaggeration, when in fact the reverse is true. They are almost surely understated. It would be like giving a convicted thief a say over the wording of the laws that govern theft. You can bet the final text would go light on thievery. So goes the politicized UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The doubters also believe the IPCC report seriously overstates the impact of human emissions on the climate.

Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution Hay, Buddy Hendrix, Dan Henley, William Ernest, “Invictus” Hewlett-Packard hope Hurricane Katrina hurricanes hybrid truck engines hydrocarbon economy hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants hydropower industry ideal comfort zone, mental exercise ideas, sources of incineration India industrial engineering industrial revolution damage from new one, gathering speed training of engineers with skills appropriate for the first industries American, disappearance of most energy-intensive perverse incentives to industry (as institution), power of, to effect environmental change Ingram, Billy innovation, derived from nature, Interface’s Intek textile factory Intel Interface awards given to charts of sustainability operations compensation system at consulting arm culture of customer base customers who wanted to know “what Interface is doing for the environment” emissions from, at start of sustainability program environmental task force founding of green and lean influence of its business model on other companies profitability of, playing with the old rules profit record since 1996 proud moments at renewable energy initiative successes since 1996 in climbing Mount Sustainability sustainability project transformation of, as a business-school case study transportation modalities of product (truck, rail, etc.) use of petroleum-derived raw materials vision for 2020 waste-control program Interface-Americas division Interface Architectural Resources Interface Cool Fuel Card Interface Environmental Foundation Interface Europe Interface Flooring Systems InterfaceFLOR InterfaceRAISE Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Truck interstate highway system investments accounting standards for assessing underperforming Iranian revolution (1972) Iran-Iraq war Iraq war IRS Isdell, Neville ISO 14001 certification Jackson, Wes Johnson, Huey Johnson Foundation Jones, Stuart Jordan, Slug Just carpet Kennedy, John F. Kohl’s Kraft Foods Kyoto Protocol labels, environmental labor efficiency (of the past) LaGrange, Georgia landfill energy project LaGrange, Georgia, Interface factory Laljani, Karin landfills methane gas from running out of Land Institute Lash, Jonathan LaValle, Joyce laws of thermodynamics Lay, Ken leadership lack of, in Washington need for role of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Green Building Rating System (LEED) leasing Lehman Brothers Leopold, Aldo Levy, Frank Lewis, Carlton Lietaer, Bernard life cycle assessment (LCA) of environmental impact Liveris, Andrew local government, innovative energy-saving programs of local smarts log cabins Lost Valley, N.C., country retreat love Lovins, Amory Winning the Oil Endgame Lukken, Jeff Maine, Interface facilities in Mali management, top-down man-made materials, must not increase in nature Mantle, Bob manufacturing, abandonment of, in U.S.


pages: 560 words: 158,238

Fifty Degrees Below by Kim Stanley Robinson

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airport security, bioinformatics, Burning Man, clean water, Donner party, full employment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, iterative process, means of production, minimum wage unemployment, North Sea oil, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, the scientific method

This year, however, the party had been somewhat taken over by the Inuit nation Nunavut, in conjunction with the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, who had declared this “The Year of Global Environmental Awareness,” and sent out hundreds of invitations, and provided many ships themselves, in the hope of gathering a floating community that would emphasize to all the world the undeniable changes already wrought by global warming. The organizers were willing to accept the risk of making the gathering look like a party, or even God forbid a celebration of global warming, in order to garner as much publicity as possible. Of course a whole new ocean to sail on was no doubt an exciting thing for sailors, but all that missing winter ice was floating down into the North Atlantic at that very moment, changing everything. IPCC wanted people to see with their own eyes that abrupt climate change was already upon them, and that it could soon cast the entire world into thousands of years of bad weather, as it had during the Younger Dryas just eleven thousand years before.

Usually representatives from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were on hand, and the discussions had a curiously suspended or hypothetical air; if Diane were the American president or a representative of his, they would have been more intent perhaps to press their positions; as it was they knew they were dealing with a kind of shadow government figure, or with the amorphous scientific community out there beyond the government, which Diane might be said to represent. She understood this and dealt with it using a kind of tightrope-walking tact, diplomatic and attractive; there were things NSF could do, and things it might do, were the political climate to change; and the physical climate changes might drive the political ones. After these meetings, it was the IPCC crowd itself who stayed on in the meeting rooms.

That was the only thing that would make staying in Washington bearable. He focused on her list: • Coordinate already existing federal programs • Establish new institutes and programs where necessary • Work with Sophie Harper, NSF’s congressional liaison officer, to contact and educate all the relevant Congressional committees and staffs, and help craft appropriate legislation • Work with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN Environmental Program, its Millennial Project, and other international efforts • Identify, evaluate, and rank all potential climate mitigation possibilities: clean energy, carbon sequestration, etc. This last item, to Frank, would create the real Things To Do list. “We’ll have to go to New York and talk to people about that stuff,” Diane said. “Yes.” It would be interesting to watch her there.


pages: 614 words: 176,458

Meat: A Benign Extravagance by Simon Fairlie

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agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, back-to-the-land, call centre, carbon footprint, Community Supported Agriculture, deindustrialization, en.wikipedia.org, food miles, Food sovereignty, Haber-Bosch Process, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Just-in-time delivery, land reform, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Wolf, megacity, Northern Rock, Panamax, peak oil, refrigerator car, scientific mainstream, sexual politics, stem cell, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, University of East Anglia, upwardly mobile, women in the workforce, zero-sum game

Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 4.2, Cambridge University Press, 2001. IPCC (1995), Climate Change 1994, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. Working Group 1. Summary for Policymakers. International Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UNEP, 1995. 72 Stern, N (2007), The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge, p 223. 73 IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Chapter 2,pp 140-142 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf 74 DEFRA (2008), UK Climate Change Sustainability Indicator: 2006 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Final Figure,http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/2008/080131a.htm; EIA (2008), Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the US 2008, ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oiaf/1605/cdrom/pdf/ggrpt/057308.pdf; Padma, T V, India and Climate Change: Facts and Figures, Sci Dev Net, 31 August 2006, http://www.scidev.net/en/climate-change-and-energy/mitigation/features/india-climate-change-facts-and-figures.html 75 Farmers Weekly (2007), ‘Milk Yield Holds the Key to Lower Carbon Footprint’, Farmers Weekly, 20 August 2007. 76 FAO (2006), op cit 77 IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC (Introduction) eds B Metz et al, Cambridge University Press, 2007, pp 103-5. 78 Ibid., p 104. 79 Goodland, Robert (1998), ‘Environmental Sutainability in Agriculture: Bioethical and Religious Arguments Against Carnivory’, in J Lemons et al (eds), Ecological Sustainability and Integrity, Kluwer, 1998, pp 235-65. 80 Goodland, R and Anhang, J (2009), Livestock and Climate Change: What if the Key Actors in Climate Change are Cows, Pigs and Chickens?

Jonathon Porritt used it in advertisements for Compassion in World Farming; the Green Party MEP, Caroline Lucas, cited it in speeches and radio interviews (though after I had telephoned her about it, she did acknowledge publicly that the figure had been challenged). And in September 2008, Rajendra Pachauri, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, endorsed the 18 per cent figure at a talk in London hosted (once again) by Compassion in World Farming. The IPCC is the Nobel prize-winning body of scientists whose word is normally taken as gospel on matters relating to global warming. Virtually all of its statistics are hedged by provisos, subject to intensive peer review and backed up by volumes of impenetrable technical data, so it was strangely cavalier of Mr Pachauri to be volunteering a figure which far exceeded most other estimates made by reputable scientific organizations, including the IPCC itself, which claims that the whole of agriculture only contributes 10–12 per cent of global GHG emissions.7 The World Resources Institute’s global warming flow chart, which is based on 1996 IPCC statistics, allocates just 5.1 per cent of global greenhouse gases to ‘livestock and manure’.8 This discrepancy does not necessarily mean that one figure is wrong and the other right.

Rasse et al conclude from their experiments that ‘the relative root contribution to SOC has an average value 2.4 times that of shoots’. D Rasse et al (2005), ‘Is Soil Carbon Mostly Root Carbon? Mechanisms for a Specific Stabilization’, Plant and Soil, 269, pp 341-56. 43 IPCC (2000), Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc%5Fsr/?src=/Climate/ipcc/land_use/index.htm 44 Fisher, M J et al (1994), Carbon Storage by Introduced Deep-Rooted Grasses in the South American Savannas’, Nature, vol 371, 15 September 1994. Actually the highest figure reported was 11.73 ± 2.58, but the IPCC cite the top end of the standard error range. 45 Davidson et al (1995), ‘Pasture Soils as Carbon Sink’, Nature, Vol 376, 10 August 1995. 46 Pimentel, D et al (2005), Organic and Conventional Farming Systems: Environmental and Economic Issues, Cornell University, 2005. 47 Yeomans, op cit.32, 146. 48 Jones, C (2007), Australian Soil Carbon Accreditation Scheme, Renewable Soil.com, 29 March 2007, http://renewablesoil.com/australian-soil-carbon-accreditation-scheme.html 49 IPCC (2000), op cit. 43. 50 The information about Christine Jones’ work is culled from the following documents, available on www.amazingcarbon.com: Jones, C (2008), ‘Liquid Carbon Pathway Unrecognized’, Australian Farm Journal, 1 July 2008; Porteous, James and Smith, Frank (2008), Farming, A Climate Change Solution, ECOS (Australia) Feb/Mar 2008; Jones, C (2007), op cit.; Jones, C (2006a), Carbon and Catchments.


pages: 302 words: 83,116

SuperFreakonomics by Steven D. Levitt, Stephen J. Dubner

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agricultural Revolution, airport security, Andrei Shleifer, Atul Gawande, barriers to entry, Bernie Madoff, call centre, clean water, cognitive bias, collateralized debt obligation, creative destruction, credit crunch, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deliberate practice, Did the Death of Australian Inheritance Taxes Affect Deaths, disintermediation, endowment effect, experimental economics, food miles, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), John Nash: game theory, Joseph Schumpeter, Joshua Gans and Andrew Leigh, loss aversion, Louis Pasteur, market design, microcredit, Milgram experiment, oil shale / tar sands, patent troll, presumed consent, price discrimination, principal–agent problem, profit motive, randomized controlled trial, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Richard Thaler, selection bias, South China Sea, Stephen Hawking, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, ultimatum game, urban planning, William Langewiesche, women in the workforce, young professional

Ground temperatures over the past 100 years can be found in “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,” U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). JAMES LOVELOCK: All Lovelock quotes in this chapter can be found in The Revenge of Gaia: Earth’s Climate Crisis and the Fate of Humanity (Basic Books, 2006). Lovelock is a scientist perhaps best known as the originator of the Gaia hypothesis, which argues that the earth is essentially a living organism much like (but in many ways superior to) a human being. He has written several books on the subject, including the foundational Gaia: The Practical Science of Planetary Medicine (Gaia Books, 1991). COWS ARE WICKED POLLUTERS: The potency of methane as a greenhouse gas as compared with carbon dioxide was calculated by the climate scientist Ken Caldeira, of the Carnegie Institution for Science, based on the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report.

He runs an ecology lab at Stanford for the Carnegie Institution. Caldeira is among the most respected climate scientists in the world, his research cited approvingly by the most fervent environmentalists. He and a co-author coined the phrase “ocean acidification,” the process by which the seas absorb so much carbon dioxide that corals and other shallow-water organisms are threatened. He also contributes research to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore for sounding the alarm on global warming. (Yes, Caldeira got a Nobel certificate.) If you met Caldeira at a party, you would likely place him in the fervent-environmentalist camp himself. He was a philosophy major in college, for goodness’ sake, and his very name—a variant of caldera, the craterlike rim of a volcano—aligns him with the natural world.

Department of, 163 Homo altruisticus, 110–11 Homo economicus, 106, 110, 112, 113 horses, 8–10, 12 Horsley, Ian, 88–90, 91, 92, 94, 95–96 hospitals errors in, 68–69, 72, 204 report cards for, 75 See also specific hospital Hurricane Katrina, 158 hurricanes, 158–63,178,193 Iceland, volcano eruptions in, 189 Ichino, Andrea, 21–22 impure altruism, 124–25 incentives and altruism, 125,131 and annuities, 82 to change behavior, 203 and chemotherapy, 85 and climate change, 173, 203 and doctors’ behavior, 206 and drunk driving, 2 and predicting behavior, 17 and prostitution, 19–20, 25, 41 and unintended consequences, 139 wages as, 46–47 and women in India, 4 India condoms in, 5, 6 List in, 115 television in, 6–8, 12, 14, 16 TV in, 103 women in, 3–8, 14 Indian Council of Medical Research, 5 Industrial Revolution, 142 information, medical, 70–74 input dilemma, 188 Institute of Medicine, 204 Intellectual Ventures (IV), 177–203 pro bono work of, 198–99 See also specific person or project intentions behind an action, 106–7 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 184 International Kidney Exchange, Ltd., 112 Internet, 39–40, 51 Iran, organ transplants in, 112, 124–25 Iraq war, 65, 87 Ireland, garbage tax in, 139 Irish Republican Army (IRA), 63 irrational behavior, 214 Jacobs, Barry, 112 Jaws (film), 15 Jefferson, Thomas, 83 Jensen, Robert, 6–7 Johnson, Boris, 170 Jung, Edward, 178 Justice Department, U.S., 23 Kahneman, Daniel, 115 Katz, Lawrence, 21, 45–46 Kay, Alan, 69 Kennedy, John F., 102 Kew Gardens (New York City).


pages: 520 words: 129,887

Power Hungry: The Myths of "Green" Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future by Robert Bryce

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Bernie Madoff, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, cleantech, collateralized debt obligation, corporate raider, correlation does not imply causation, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, decarbonisation, Deng Xiaoping, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, flex fuel, greed is good, Hernando de Soto, hydraulic fracturing, hydrogen economy, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Menlo Park, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, Stewart Brand, Thomas L Friedman, uranium enrichment, Whole Earth Catalog

Between 1990 and 2009, India’s electricity production nearly tripled, reaching 834.3 terawatt-hours in 2008, and about 68 percent of that power generation now comes from the burning of coal.42 But even with the huge increases in power production, 40 percent of Indian homes still don’t have electricity and 60 percent of Indian industrial firms rely on alternate forms of generation because the power grid isn’t reliable.43 India is tired of lagging behind the rest of the world. That message was made clear by none other than Rajendra Pachauri, the Indian academic who chairs the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In July 2009, Pachauri asked reporters, “Can you imagine 400 million people who do not have a light bulb in their homes?” And he went on to explain where India was going to be getting its future power: “You cannot, in a democracy, ignore some of these realities and as it happens with the resources of coal that India has, we really don’t have any choice but to use coal.”44 The necessity of coal in developing countries was made clear in October 2009 by none other than U.S.

deforestation in electricity generation in and energy consumption(fig.) and energy intensity(fig.) need for increased electricity in and nuclear power power consumption in(fig.) ranking of, by GDP and electricity generation(table) Industrial Revolution Infant mortality rates Innumeracy, issue of Inpex Holdings Institute for 21st Century Energy Institute for Fusion Studies Institution of Mechanical Engineers Integrated energy parks Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) International Energy Agency (IEA) on carbon capture and sequestration on decarbonization on demand in the oil market on emissions on estimated global gas resources on gas-fired capacity on global gas resources on global liquified natural gas production on the growth of renewables on nuclear power on oil demand and GDP on peak oil on projected costs for new electricity generation plants(fig.)

In fact, some environmental activists have decided that the optimum level of carbon dioxide in the global atmosphere should be 350 parts per million. (By late 2009, the concentration was about 390 parts per million.) On October 24, 2009, the supporters of the 350 parts per million target conducted more than 4,000 synchronized demonstrations around the world. Their aim: to build a “global community” to support the 350 ppm goal.18 The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri, has said he is “fully supportive” of the 350 ppm goal.19 In November 2009, former vice president Al Gore, appearing on the Late Show with David Letterman, declared that unless the people of the world took drastic action to curb carbon dioxide emissions, it could be “the end of civilization as we know it.”20 Gore may be right. It’s also possible that he’s wrong.

Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence, and the Poverty of Nations by Raymond Fisman, Edward Miguel

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accounting loophole / creative accounting, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, barriers to entry, blood diamonds, clean water, colonial rule, congestion charging, crossover SUV, Donald Davies, European colonialism, failed state, feminist movement, George Akerlof, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Live Aid, mass immigration, megacity, oil rush, prediction markets, random walk, Scramble for Africa, selection bias, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, unemployed young men

For poor African farmers, where the weather determines whether the next harvest will yield enough food to eat, or barren fields will bring hunger, what comes out of factory smokestacks in China could truly be a matter of life and death. If changing global weather brings less rain to Africa, it may also bring more war. Global Weathermen Despite the lingering naysayers, scientists worldwide largely agree that climate change is happening and isn’t going away anytime soon. This consensus is expressed in the United Nations scientific report called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment, whose authors were awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize (together with Al Gore). The leading researchers who penned the report agree that in the coming decades, rising global temperatures and sea levels will change life as we know it, altering landscapes and habitats across the globe.19 But while many experts generally agree that the planet is heating up, there are divergent views on exactly how it’ll change and by how much.

See also Rapid Conflict Prevention Support (RCPS) Geschiere, Peter, 140 Ghana, 142 Gine, Xavier, 199–200 Githongo, John, 208–9 Giuliani, Rudy, 104 Gladwell, Malcolm, 19–20 Glennerster, Rachel, 227n14, 231nn6, 7 Glewwe, Paul, 194 global warming: China and, 127–29; predicted effects of, 129–31; Sahelian Africa and, 131–34, 225n21; U.S. and, 127–29 Grain of Wheat (Ngugi), 2 Guidolin, Massimo, 182b–84b Halliburton, 29, 220n19 HIV/AIDS, 9, 191–92 Hoeffler, Anke, 228n20, 230n13 Homo economicus, 6, 87 Hong Kong, 55–57 Houtafa Ag Moussa, 122 incentives, economic, 188–89; bribery and, 80; parking violations and, 103b–5b; policy formulation and, 189–91; smuggling and, 61–62, 65, 70–73, 78–79 India, 21 Indonesia: road building in, 197–99; Suharto and, 22–24, 33–40, 187, 218nn7, 8, 9 (see also Suharto) insider information, stock trading and, 34–40 institutionalists, 12–15 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), 129 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 39–40, 41–42, 154 Iraq: army dissolution and, 180–81; civilian casualties in, 119b; national identity in, 179; rebuilding of, 178–81 Italy: corruption in, 93b; Mafia in, 43b–46b; political connections in, value of, 48–49 Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX), 33, 36–40, 217n6, 218n7 Japan, postwar recovery of, 162–63, 179–80 Jeffords, Jim, 51 Jolie, Angelina, 9 Kenya: childrens’ names in, 123b; development program evaluations in, 193–95; economic growth of, 204–5; fighting for development in, 1–3; Mungiki and, 147b–48b; police salaries in, 189; politics and politicians in, 1–5; road building in, 186–87; village of Sauri and, 202–6.

New York Times, “World Briefing: Africa: Niger: Rebel Attack at Army Base Kills 13,” June 23, 2007. 18. The International Energy Agency Statistics, 2007 (www .iea.org) contains detailed global data on CO2 emissions. 19. The full report can be found at: http://www.ipcc.ch/ (last visited March 29, 2008). Much of the research in this section is based on ongoing joint work with John Dykema and Shanker Satyanath. We are especially grateful to John Dykema for many insightful conversations on climate models. 20. This is for the range of low emission to high emission scenarios: see http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html, p. 13 (last visited March 29, 2008). 21. There is no single accepted definition of the Sahel. The following organizations have different definitions: USAID (http:// www.usaid.gov/press/factsheets/2005/fs050803.html), the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (http://www.africa-union.org/root/ au/ RECs/cen_sad.htm), and the International Development Research Centre (http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-43109-201-1-DO_TOPIC. html).

Who Rules the World? by Noam Chomsky

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Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Ayatollah Khomeini, Berlin Wall, Bretton Woods, British Empire, capital controls, corporate governance, corporate personhood, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, Donald Trump, Doomsday Clock, Edward Snowden, en.wikipedia.org, facts on the ground, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Howard Zinn, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, liberation theology, Malacca Straits, Martin Wolf, Mikhail Gorbachev, Monroe Doctrine, nuclear winter, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, one-state solution, Plutonomy: Buying Luxury, Explaining Global Imbalances, precariat, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ronald Reagan, South China Sea, Stanislav Petrov, structural adjustment programs, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, trade route, union organizing, uranium enrichment, wage slave, WikiLeaks, working-age population

“The door is closing,” the IEA’s chief economist said, and very soon it “will be closed forever.”13 Shortly before that, the U.S. Department of Energy reported its annual carbon dioxide emissions figures, which “jumped by the biggest amount on record,” to a level higher than the worst-case scenario anticipated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).14 That came as no surprise to many scientists, including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s program on climate change, which for years has warned that the IPCC’s predictions are too conservative. Such critics of the IPCC predictions receive virtually no public attention, unlike the fringe climate change denialists who are supported by the corporate sector, along with huge propaganda campaigns that have driven many Americans off the international spectrum in their dismissal of the threats of climate change.

Humanitarian Law Project Holocaust Honduras Hoodbhoy, Pervez Hoover Institution Hout, Shafiq al- Hull, Cordell humanitarian intervention human rights Human Rights Watch Hungary Huntington, Samuel P. Hussein, Saddam Husseini, Faisal Ibrahim, Youssef Ickes, Harold immigrants imperialism India Indians (Native Americans) indigenous populations Indochina Indonesia industrial revolution Industrial Workers of the World inequality Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) internal security International Court of Justice International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia International Energy Agency International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War International Security Intifada Iran coup of 1953 Iran Air Flight 655 Iran-Iraq war Iraq U.S. invasion of Ireland Iron Fist operations ISIS (Islamic State) Islamic Jihad Islamic world Israel.


pages: 403 words: 111,119

Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist by Kate Raworth

3D printing, Asian financial crisis, bank run, basic income, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, bitcoin, blockchain, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, Buckminster Fuller, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Cass Sunstein, choice architecture, clean water, cognitive bias, collapse of Lehman Brothers, complexity theory, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, dematerialisation, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, Erik Brynjolfsson, ethereum blockchain, Eugene Fama: efficient market hypothesis, experimental economics, Exxon Valdez, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Financial Instability Hypothesis, full employment, global supply chain, global village, Henri Poincaré, hiring and firing, Howard Zinn, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of writing, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, land reform, land value tax, Landlord’s Game, loss aversion, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, market fundamentalism, Martin Wolf, means of production, megacity, mobile money, Mont Pelerin Society, Myron Scholes, neoliberal agenda, Network effects, Occupy movement, off grid, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, Paul Samuelson, peer-to-peer, planetary scale, price mechanism, quantitative easing, randomized controlled trial, Richard Thaler, Ronald Reagan, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Simon Kuznets, smart cities, smart meter, South Sea Bubble, statistical model, Steve Ballmer, The Chicago School, The Great Moderation, the map is not the territory, the market place, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, Torches of Freedom, trickle-down economics, ultimatum game, universal basic income, Upton Sinclair, Vilfredo Pareto, wikimedia commons

Green, T. (2012) ‘Introductory economics textbooks: what do they teach about sustainability?’, International Journal of Pluralism and Economics Education, 3: 2, pp. 189–223. 22. Daly, H. and Farley, J. (2011) Ecological Economics. Washington: Island Press, p. 16. 23. Daly, H. (1990) ‘Toward some operational principles of sustainable development’, Ecological Economics, 2, pp. 1–6. 24. IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributions of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 25. Putnam, R. (2000) Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon & Schuster, p. 19. 26. Putnam, R. (2000) Bowling Alone, p. 290. 27. ‘Election day will not be enough’: an interview with Howard Zinn, by Lee, J. and Tarleton, J. The Indypendent, 14 November 2008, available at: http://howardzinn.org/election-day-will-not-be-enough-an-interview-with-howard-zinn/ 28.

ICRICT (2015) Declaration of the Independent Commissions for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation. http://www.icrict.org Institute of Mechanical Engineers (2013) Global Food: Waste Not, Want Not. London: Institute of Mechanical Engineers. International Cooperative Alliance (2014) World Cooperative Monitor. Geneva: ICA. International Labour Organisation (2014) Global Wage Report. Geneva: ILO. International Labour Organisation (2015) Global Employment Trends for Youth 2015. Geneva: ILO. IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contributions of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Islam, N. (2015) Inequality and Environmental Sustainability. United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs Working Paper no. 145. ST/ESA/2015/DWP/145. Jackson, T. (2009) Prosperity without Growth. London: Earthscan. Jensen, K., Vaish, A. and Schmidt, M. (2014) ‘The emergence of human prosociality: aligning with others through feelings, concerns, and norms’, Frontiers in Psychology 5, p. 822.

In 2014, for instance, they met in Brisbane, Australia, where they discussed global trade, infrastructure, jobs and financial reform, stroked koalas for the cameras, and then rallied behind one overriding ambition. ‘G20 leaders pledge to grow their economies by 2.1%’ trumpeted the global news headlines – adding that this was more ambitious than the 2.0% that they had initially intended to target.1 How did it come to this? The G20’s pledge was announced just days after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that the world faces ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible’ damage from rising greenhouse gas emissions. But the summit’s Australian host, then Prime Minister Tony Abbott, had been determined to stop the meeting’s agenda from being ‘cluttered’ by climate change and other issues that could distract from his top priority of economic growth, otherwise known as GDP growth.2 Measured as the market value of goods and services produced within a nation’s borders in a year, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has long been used as the leading indicator of economic health.


pages: 362 words: 104,308

Forty Signs of Rain by Kim Stanley Robinson

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bioinformatics, business intelligence, double helix, experimental subject, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), phenotype, prisoner's dilemma, Ronald Reagan, stem cell, the scientific method, zero-sum game

He was testing the temperature of the thawed milk by taking a quick suck on the nipple when his phone rang. He whipped on a headset and answered. “Hi Charlie, it’s Roy.” “Oh hi Roy, what’s up.” “Well I’ve got your latest draft here and I’m about to read it, and I thought I’d check first to see what I should be looking for, how you solved the IPCC stuff.” “Oh yeah. The new stuff that matters is all in the third section.” The bill as Charlie had drafted it for Phil would require the U.S. to act on certain recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “Did you kind of bury the part about us conforming to IPCC findings?” “I don’t think there’s earth deep enough to bury that one. I tried to put it in a context that made it look inevitable. International body that we are part of, climate change clearly real, the UN the best body to work through global issues, support for them pretty much mandatory for us or else the whole world cooks in our juices, that sort of thing.”

And hip to at least the most obvious of movie trivia. Charlie couldn’t help feeling a bit reassured. Now the President said, “That’s nice, Charles, let’s get to it then, shall we? I heard from Dr. S. here about the meeting this morning, and I wanted to check in on it in person, because I like Phil Chase. And I understand that Phil now wants us to join in with the actions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to the point of introducing a bill mandating our participation in whatever action they recommend, no matter what it is. And this is a UN panel.” “Well,” Charlie said, shifting gears into ultradiplomatic mode, not just for the President but for the absent Phil, who was going to be upset with him no matter what he said, since only Phil should actually be talking to the President about this stuff.

“Come on it’s a lot more than that, young man, it’s one of the few chances we have left to avoid complete global disaster, I mean—” “Preaching to the converted! Preaching to the converted!” “I certainly hope so.” “Sure sure. Okay, I’ll read this draft and get back to you ASAP. I want to move on with this, and the committee discussion is now scheduled for Tuesday.” “That’s fine, I’ll have my phone with me all day.” “Sounds good, I’ll be in touch, but meanwhile be thinking about how to slip the IPCC thing in even deeper.” “Yeah okay but see what I did already.” “Sure bye.” “Bye.” Charlie pulled off the headset and turned off the stove. Joe finished his bottle, inspected it, tossed it casually aside. “Man, you are fast,” Charlie said as he always did. One of the mutual satisfactions of their days together was doing the same things over and over again, and saying the same things about them.


pages: 432 words: 124,635

Happy City: Transforming Our Lives Through Urban Design by Charles Montgomery

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2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, agricultural Revolution, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, Bernie Madoff, British Empire, Buckminster Fuller, car-free, carbon footprint, centre right, City Beautiful movement, clean water, congestion charging, correlation does not imply causation, East Village, edge city, energy security, Enrique Peñalosa, experimental subject, Frank Gehry, Google Earth, happiness index / gross national happiness, Home mortgage interest deduction, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, license plate recognition, McMansion, means of production, megacity, Menlo Park, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mortgage tax deduction, New Urbanism, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, rent control, ride hailing / ride sharing, risk tolerance, science of happiness, Seaside, Florida, Silicon Valley, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, the High Line, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade route, transit-oriented development, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban sprawl, wage slave, white flight, World Values Survey, zero-sum game, Zipcar

These highways: Todd Litman, Generated Traffic and Induced Travel Implications for Transport Planning (Victoria, BC: Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 2010); interview with Howard Frumkin of the Centers for Disease Control in the Web series American Makeover, episode 1, “Sprawlanta,” www.americanmakeover.tv/episode1.html (accessed February 2, 2011). United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: core writing team, R. K. Pachauri, and A. Reisinger, eds., Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2008). The travel time: Green, Charles, Health Plenary Address, Congress for New Urbanism 18, Atlanta, May 20, 2010. This we know: Thomas, C., et al., “Extinction Risk from Climate Change,” Nature, 2004: 145–48. alarmed the insurance industry: Fogarty, David, “Climate Change Growing Risk for Insurers: Industry,” Planet Ark, January 20, 2011, http://planetark.org/wen/60947 (accessed January 21, 2011).

Here are some things we know: The earth’s atmosphere is warming at an unprecedented pace, mainly as a result of human activity causing greenhouse gas emissions. On this point there is agreement from every peer-reviewed journal on the subject, and from the national scientific academies of Canada, China, Brazil, India, Russia, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, Mexico, the United Kingdom, the United States, and dozens of other countries,† as well as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which synthesizes the work of the biggest group of scientists ever to focus on a single issue. Which is to say that to the very best of human knowledge, we are blowing so much methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide into the air that we are throwing the delicate system governing climate and weather out of whack. This we know: climate change is likely to cause more heat waves, droughts, intense storms, cyclones, and tornadoes; the inundation of lowland cities; the spread of infectious diseases; crop failures; and famine that may collectively kill hundreds of millions of people and impoverish many more, not to mention the disappearance of 15 to 37 percent of species by 2050.

*These highways helped scatter 90 percent of Atlanta’s growing population out of the urban core. *The travel time in Atlanta grew faster in the 1990s than in any other American city. The average person’s time spent in Atlanta traffic rose from six hours a year to thirty-four hours between 1990 and 2000 alone. †A survey of just a few of the national scientific institutions that support the IPCC’s findings on climate change: Academia Brasileira de Ciências, the Royal Society of Canada, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Académie des Sciences, Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina, the Indian National Science Academy, Accademia dei Lincei, the Science Council of Japan, the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Royal Society of the United Kingdom, and the National Academy of Sciences (from “Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change,” Washington, DC: The National Academies, 2005), as well as the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the governments of all G8 nations.


pages: 437 words: 115,594

The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World by Steven Radelet

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Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Asian financial crisis, bank run, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, business climate, business process, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, clean water, colonial rule, creative destruction, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Doha Development Round, Erik Brynjolfsson, European colonialism, F. W. de Klerk, failed state, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the steam engine, James Watt: steam engine, John Snow's cholera map, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, land reform, low skilled workers, M-Pesa, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, off grid, oil shock, out of africa, purchasing power parity, race to the bottom, randomized controlled trial, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, secular stagnation, Simon Kuznets, South China Sea, special economic zone, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, trade route, women in the workforce, working poor

A similar consensus now exists among climate scientists, a consensus that maintains climate change is happening, and human activity is the cause.7 According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric temperatures rose by about 0.85°C (about 1.5°F) during the last century, and the first decade of the twenty-first century was the hottest on record. Ocean temperatures have risen even faster. Sea levels have risen by about 0.2 meters over the last century, on average, and in some places, they have risen higher. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last eight hundred thousand years. Carbon dioxide concentrations, in particular, have increased by 40 percent since the industrial revolution.8 How climate will change in the future, of course, is a matter of extensive debate and uncertainty. The IPCC believes it is “likely” that average global temperatures will rise another 0.7°C this century, bringing the total increase in temperatures to 1.5°C (2.7°F).

., “High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change,” Science 342, no. 6160 (November 15, 2013): 850–53, www.sciencemag.org/content/342/6160/850. 7. What We Know: The Reality, Risks and Response to Climate Change (New York: American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2014), p. 6, http://whatweknow.aaas.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/whatweknow_website.pdf. 8. “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis—Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), last modified January 30, 2014, www.climatechange2013.org. 9. Nicholas Stern, “How Climate Change Will Affect People Around the World,” chap. 3 in Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change (London: Government of the United Kingdom, 2006), http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100407172811/http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/stern_review_report.htm. 10. Dean Jamison et al., “Global Health 2035: A World Converging Within a Generation,” Lancet 382, no. 9908 (December 7, 2013): 1898–1955. 11.

., 97 Hindu nationalists, 287 Hitler, Adolf, 127, 146 HIV/AIDS, 20, 75, 81–82, 83, 94, 95, 173, 174–75, 182, 205, 214, 221, 246, 266 Hobbes, Thomas, 24 Honduras: coup in, 97–98 crime in, 264 war in, 145 Hong Kong: British control of, 153 and globalization, 155 growth in, 147 hookworm, 205 housing, 24, 307 humanitarian relief, 213 human rights groups, 110 Hungary, 7, 143 illiberalism in, 255, 263 protests in, 134 trade encouraged by, 155 Huntington, Samuel, 104, 105, 112, 121, 122, 146, 197, 265, 296 Hussein I, King of Jordan, 187 illiberal democracy, 264 immunization, 94, 178 income, 3, 5, 8, 17, 25, 31, 32, 40, 77, 94, 294 in Africa, 12 in China, 201 climbing, 240–41, 240 doubling of, 4, 5–6, 44 education, health and, 89–93 falling, 11, 49 income inequality, 65–71 between countries, 69–71, 70 within countries, 65–69 incubators, 175 independence from colonialism, 140–43 India, 3, 7, 22, 32–33, 37, 127, 159, 203, 289, 292, 297 colonialism in, 140 data entry firms in, 178 demand in, 53 as democracy, 98, 122, 123, 126 economic reforms in, 192 emigration from, 284 floods in, 281 future of, 234 growth in, 6, 8–9, 17, 21, 45, 50, 71, 128, 235, 237 inequality in, 69–70 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 innovation in, 302 malaria in, 211 natural capital in, 63 Pakistan’s wars with, 141, 145 poverty reduction in, 244 slowdown in growth of, 237, 255, 257, 262 software companies in, 56 terrorism in, 287 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 water demand in, 279 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Indian Institute of Technology, 247 Indonesia, 10, 36, 124, 127, 184, 289 agriculture in, 58–59, 204 aid for schools in, 216 aid to, 214, 223 benign dictatorship in, 126 child mortality in, 85 colonial legacy in, 136–40 demand in, 53 democracy in, 106, 112, 114, 115, 122, 123, 124, 250 demonstrations in, 281 as dictatorship, 99, 122 factories in, 201 fertility rates in, 85, 85 growth in, 6, 7, 22, 38–39, 50, 71, 125–26, 128, 147, 233, 238, 242, 262 healthcare in, 95 individual leadership in, 187 Nikes from, 56 population growth in, 85 rice yields in, 215–16 terrorism in, 286 timber, 223 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 industrial equipment, 165 industrial revolution, 24, 25, 77, 135, 166, 300 industry, 45, 56, 260 inequality, 258 infant mortality, 92, 118, 175, 306 in South Africa, 183 infectious diseases, 92 inflation, 11, 192 in Africa, 12 information, 166, 234 information revolution, 175–79, 176 infrastructure, 164, 201, 207, 262 aid projects for, 216 Inkatha Freedom Party, 182, 185 innovation, 234, 258, 292, 294 in China, 236 Institute of World Economics and Politics, 298 institutions, 200, 294, 297–98, 303–4 and resource curse, 206 insurance companies, 241 insurance markets, 305 interest rates, 233, 305 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 282 International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), 171 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 102, 235, 237, 239, 258, 259, 260, 298, 309 International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), 171, 215–16 internet, 162, 175, 233, 300 investment, 6, 20, 22, 52, 156, 157, 166, 301, 304–5, 306 in Africa, 12 in technology, 234, 246 Iran, 114, 124 coup in, 100 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Iraq, 8, 114, 118, 124, 285 US invasion of, 8, 118, 124, 146 Ireland, 284 iron, 25, 53, 159 Islam, 124 fundamentalist, 265 Islamabad, 287 Israel, 106, 285 Istanbul, 201, 206 Istanbul Technical University, 247 Italy, 47, 104 ivory, 152, 206 Jakarta, 137 Jamaica, 49, 50 Jamison, Dean, 246 Japan, 19, 20, 21, 146, 167, 201, 288, 290, 292, 298, 300 as democracy, 122, 123, 126, 250, 296 colonialism in Indonesia, 137 industrialization of, 25–26 leadership needed by, 234 post–World War II boom in, 262 reforms in, 295 slowing of progress in, 250, 255, 257 Jarka, Lamine Jusu, 104 Java, 152, 204 Jensen, Robert, 177 job training, 38 Johannesburg, 58 Johnson, Simon, 13 Johnson Sirleaf, Ellen, 3, 120, 184, 185, 209, 217 Jordan, 285 growth in, 45 individual leadership in, 187 life expectancy in, 78 poverty in, 36 JSI Research and Training Institute, 173 Kabila, Laurent, 185 Kagan, Robert, 253 Kampala, 177 Kaplan, Robert, 11 Kapstein, Ethan, 198 Karimov, Islam, 8, 127, 144, 185 Kathmandu, 203, 206 Kazakhstan, 36, 106, 115, 285 Kelly, James, 254 Kenny, Charles, 11, 93 Kenya, 18, 169 accounting firms in, 56 data entry firms in, 178 horticulture in, 169 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Kerekou, Mathieu, 144 Kharas, Homi, 240–41, 261 Khatun, Jahanara, 270, 272 Khmer Rouge, 114 Khrushchev, Nikita, 250 Kim, Jim Yong, 231, 242 Kim Il Sung, 100, 144, 184 Kirkpatrick, Jeanne, 124 Kissinger, Henry, 271 Kodari, 203 Kolkata, 203 Korean War, 81, 100, 141, 145 Kosovo, and democracy, 248 Kotler, Steven, 300 Kraay, Aart, 65 Kufuor, John, 189–90 Ku Klux Klan, 124, 265 Kurlantzick, Josh, 263 Kuwait, 47 Kuznets, Simon, 66 KwaZulu-Natal, 182 Kyrgyzstan, 205, 285 labor unions, 102 Lancet, 91, 245, 267, 284, 306 Landes, David, 13 Laos, 184 Latin America, 11, 36, 146 colonialism in, 140 economic growth in, 255 growth in, 50, 141 inequality in, 67–68 megacities in, 277 reforms in, 192 Latvia, growth in, 128 Laveran, Alphonse, 211 leadership, 16, 17–18, 131, 184–87, 200, 201, 234, 303–4 Lebitsa, Masetumo, 57 Lee, Jong-Wha, 87 Lee Kuan Yew, 7, 121, 122, 123, 125, 127 Lensink, Robert, 226 Lesotho, 57, 103 Levine, Ruth, 214 Levi Strauss & Co., 165 Lewis, Arthur, 66 Liberia, 3, 11, 18, 159, 184, 185, 285 aid to, 217 democracy in, 106, 145 Ebola in, 82 growth in, 7, 50 health system in, 266 infrastructure investment in, 216 violence in, 120, 145, 146, 206, 209, 217 Libya, 115 life expectancy, 78–79, 79, 92, 93, 232, 266, 271, 294 Lipset, Seymour Martin, 121 literacy programs, 161, 162, 176, 178–79 literacy rates, 87 Liu Yingsheng, 153 London, 24, 201 Lord’s Resistance Army, 287 Lukashenko, Alexander, 85 Maathai, Wangari, 18 McAfee, Andrew, 166, 300 Macapagal-Arroyo, Gloria, 264 McLean, Malcolm, 167 Madagascar, 49, 50, 263 Mahbubani, Kishore, 241 malaria, 6, 10, 14, 73, 75, 92, 94, 205, 209–13, 221, 246, 302 Malawi, 103, 122, 175, 208 Malaysia, 136 benign dictatorship in, 126 and democracy, 248, 250 forest loss in, 280 malaria in, 211 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Maldives, 152, 284 Mali, 206 child mortality in, 84 coup in, 114, 264–65 democracy in, 103, 108, 122, 123, 263 economic problems in, 255 as landlocked, 205 poverty in, 122 malnutrition, 73, 80 Malthus, Thomas, 270, 273–74, 275 Mandela, Nelson, 17, 149, 180, 182–83, 184, 198, 309 released from jail, 103, 143, 148 Mandelbaum, Michael, 11 manufacturing, 25, 37–39, 45, 56, 67, 156, 260, 261–62 in China, 235–36 Mao Tse-tung, ix, 35, 81, 102, 123, 127, 134, 185 Maputo, 44 Marcos, Ferdinand, 11, 100, 103, 104, 109, 127, 141, 143, 148, 222 Mariam, Mengistu Haile, 144 Marrakesh, 206 Marshall Islands, 284 Maseru Tapestries and Mats, 57 Massmart Holdings Ltd., 46 Matela Weavers, 57 maternal mortality rates, 246 Mauritania, 281 Mauritius: aid to, 216 child mortality in, 84 as democracy, 98 growth in, 5, 37, 50, 126, 128 Mbasogo, Teodoro Obiang Nguema, 184 Mearsheimer, John, 290–91 measles, 92, 94, 161 Mecca, Zheng He’s trip to, 152 medical equipment, 20, 165 medicine, 21, 31 megacities, 277 Meiji Restoration, 25–26, 146 Melaka, 136 Menchú Tum, Rigoberta, 18 Mexico, 159, 162 default by, 101–2 democracy strengthening in, 115 demonstrations in, 281 emigration from, 284 growth in, 235 Micklethwait, John, 295 middle class, 20, 240–41 Middle East, 36, 184, 256, 265 conflict in, 146 democracy and, 265 financing in, 259 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 82–83 oil from, 201 trade and, 159 middle-income trap, 261 Milanovic, Branko, 65, 70 Millennium Challenge Corporation, 216 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), 18, 30–31, 95, 217, 242 Millennium Summit, 217 Mills, John Atta, 189 minerals, 22, 152, 205–6 Ming China, 151–53 minimum wage, 165 mining, 278 Ministry of Finance, Gambia, The 190 Mitteri Bridge, 203 Mobarak, Mushfiq, 59 Mobile Alliance for Maternal Action (MAMA), 178 mobile devices, 47 mobile phones, 157, 175–78, 176 Mobilink-UNESCO, 179 Mobutu Sese Seko, 11, 100, 127, 141, 143, 145, 222 Moi, Daniel Arap, 103 Moldova, 6, 7, 36, 143 Mongolia, 108 aid to, 223 coal and iron ore exported by, 53 democracy in, 104, 122, 123, 144 growth in, 6, 7, 45, 128 Moran, Ted, 164–65 Moreira, Sandrina Berthault, 226 Morocco: demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 6, 50 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 poverty in, 36 Morrisson, Christian, 25, 27, 28 mosquitoes, 212 Moyo, Dambisa, 12 Mozal aluminum smelter, 44 Mozambique, 11, 18, 43–45, 159 aid to, 214, 216 aluminum exported by, 53 and democracy, 248 demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 6, 50, 261 inequality in, 67 infrastructure investment in, 216 reforms in, 192 state-owned farms in, 195 war in, 100, 145 M-Pesa, 47 Mubarak, Hosni, 113, 125, 185 Mugabe, Robert, 8, 106, 113, 127, 144, 181, 182, 185, 221 Mumbai, 287 Museveni, Yoweri, 112, 187 Musharraf, Pervez, 113 Mussolini, Benito, 104, 146 Myanmar, 9, 22, 112, 144, 184, 208, 263 child mortality in, 82 cyclones in, 281 health improvements in, 93 Namibia, ix, x, 37 democracy in, 135 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 266 war in, 100, 145 National Academy of Sciences, US, 172 National Constituent Assembly, Tunisia, 124 National Institutes of Health, US, 302 natural capital, 62–63 Natural Resource Governance Institute, 306 Nazarbayev, Nursultan, 106 Nazism, 124, 146, 265, 309 Ndebele tribe, 180 Nepal, 37, 174, 203–4, 208 democracy in, 107, 122, 123 demonstrations in, 281 as landlocked, 202, 205 poverty in, 122 Netherlands, 47 Indonesian colonialism of, 136–37, 138, 139 New Development Bank, 259 New Orleans, La., 201 New York, N.Y., 201, 277 New York Times, 104, 176–77, 270 New Zealand, 25, 78, 167, 202, 231 Nicaragua, 11, 36 democracy in, 104 war in, 100, 145 Niger, 208 agriculture in, 204 democracy in, 124, 263 as landlocked, 202, 205 mobile phones in, 177–78 Nigeria, 115, 159, 243, 245, 287 dictatorship in, 99, 113 health technology in, 175 oil in, 285 per capita wealth in, 62 Nike, 165, 202 Nkomo, Joshua, 181 noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), 268 non-governmental organization (NGOs), 110, 221 Noriega, Manuel, 144 North Africa, 36 growth in, 50 life expectancy in, 82–83 trade and, 159 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 156, 162 North Korea, 8, 9, 100, 144, 184, 192, 208, 243 nutrition, 232 Obama, Barack, 297 Obama administration, 297 O’Hanlon, Michael, 299 oil, 44, 53, 62, 67, 114–15, 201, 205, 285 in Equatorial Guinea, 223 in Indonesia, 138, 139 oil crises, 10 open markets, 131 Opium Wars, 153 oral rehydration therapy (ORT), 94, 173, 215 overfishing, 61 overtime regulations, 165 Paarlberg, Rob, 172 Pakistan, 37, 162, 243, 245, 285–86 conflict in, 118, 119 coup in, 113 and democracy, 263 emigration from, 284 factories in, 58 India’s wars with, 141, 145 terrorism in, 287 violence in, 146 Panama, 9 growth in, 50, 128, 238 US invasion of, 144 Panama Canal, 211 Panasonic, 202 Papua New Guineau, 50, 213 Paraguay, 50, 280 Park Chung-hee, 99, 122 patents, 157 Peace Corps, 75, 90, 202 pensions, 38, 241 People Power Revolution, 186 Perkins, Dwight, 235 pertussis, 94, 161 Peru, 159, 185, 285, 287 agriculture in, 56–57 copper exported by, 53 demonstrations in, 281 pharmaceuticals, 20, 165 Philippines, 7, 11, 17, 18, 100, 103, 121, 127, 184, 185, 201, 222, 289, 290, 297 call centers in, 178 corruption in, 264 democracy in, 104, 106, 109, 122, 123, 250, 263 growth in, 242 inequality in, 67 nickel exported by, 53 rice yields in, 215–16 transcribers in, 56 Piketty, Thomas, 68–69 Pinker, Steven, 115 Pinochet, Augusto, 107–8, 122, 141, 143–44, 187 Plano Real (“Real Plan”), 187 Plundered Planet, The (Collier), 292 pneumonia, 73 Poland, 6, 18, 36, 103, 143, 184, 186 protests in, 134 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 polio, 94, 119, 161, 215 Polity IV Project, 107, 109 pollution, 302 Population Bomb, The (Ehrlich), 274 population growth, 21, 80–81, 84, 95, 233, 234, 272, 273–77, 276 Portfolios of the Poor (Collins et al.), 32, 33–34 Port of Cotonou, 216 Portugal, 105, 123, 136 poverty, 94, 294 definitions and terminology of, 26–27 democracy and, 121 as exacerbated by conflicts, 119, 119 as man-made, 180 poverty, extreme, 5, 8, 25, 26, 27–30, 30, 31–35, 36, 41, 42, 118, 231, 232, 240, 241–45, 244, 256, 271 in China, 35, 36, 242 in Indonesia, 136 in South Africa, 183 poverty, reduction of, 3, 4, 5, 8, 17, 21, 27–31, 28, 30, 34–35 in Africa, 12 in China, 201 after global food crisis (2007), 12 ignorance of, 10 lack of attention to, 10 poverty traps, 14–16 pregnancy, 178 press, freedom of, 198–99 Preston, Samuel, 92 Preston curves, 92 Pritchett, Lant, 89, 235, 262 Programa Bolsa Família, 38, 67 progress in developing countries, x, 3–5, 45–53, 46, 49, 229, 237–39, 238 democratization and, see democracy factors for, 16–19 future of, 21–23 as good for West, 19–21 income growth in, 240–41, 240 investment in, 238 and long historical perspective, 13 and microlevel studies, 13–14 middle class emergence in, 240–41 pessimism about, 9–12 possible stalling of, 255–56 possible tripling of incomes in, 277–78 and poverty traps, 14–16 reduction of poverty in, see poverty, reduction of threats to, 291–92 transforming production in, 262–63 property rights, 142, 303 protein, 280 Protestant work ethic, 120–21 Publish What You Pay, 305 Punjab, 178–79 Putin, Vladimir, 224, 255 Radelet, John, 60 Rahman, Ziaur, 271 Rajan, Raghuram, 225, 237 Rajasthan, 33 Ramos, Fidel, 103 Ramos-Horta, José, 184 Ravallion, Martin, 27, 29, 64, 227, 243 Rawlings, Jerry, 188–89 Rebirth of Education, The (Pritchett), 89 recession (1980s), 10, 191 Reebok, 164 religion, freedom of, 198–99 religious bodies, 110 Reserve Bank, Zimbabwe, 181 resource curse, 54, 163, 206 resource demand, 21, 233, 272, 281 resource extraction, 162–63 resources, 275 in Africa, 261 resource wars, 284–86 retail trade, 37, 45 Return of History and the End of Dreams, The (Kagan), 253 Reuveny, Rafael, 272 Rhodes, Cecil, 180 Rhodesia, 43 rice, 139, 215–16 rickshaw drivers, 32–33 Ridley, Matt, 11 rights, 131, 161, 198–99 rinderpest, 215 Rio de Janeiro, 46, 58, 159, 201 river blindness, 214 roads, 169, 233, 235 aid for, 216 in South Africa, 202 Robinson, James, 13, 140, 249 robotics, 261, 301 Rockefeller Foundation, 170 Rodrik, Dani, 261, 263 Roll Back Malaria Partnership, 212 Romania, 36, 50, 134, 143 Romero, Óscar, 100 Roosevelt, Franklin, 100 Roosevelt, Theodore, 169 Ross, Ronald, 211 Royal Economic Society, 226 Russia, 47, 146, 222, 256 democracy in, 113, 263, 264 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 slowing of progress in, 250, 264 Ukraine invaded by, 192, 233 US aid banned by, 224 Rutagumirwa, Laban, 176–77 Rwanda, 144, 159 aid to, 214, 216, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 growth in, 6, 7, 45, 50, 125, 128, 261 individual leadership in, 187 as landlocked, 207 Sachs, Jeffrey, 14–15, 175, 205, 210, 213, 219 Safaricom, 47 salinity, 171, 215 Sall, Macky, 114 Samoa, 202 sanitation, 73, 77, 216, 303 Sargsyan, Vazgen, 113 Saudi Arabia, 115 savings rate, 201 schistosomiasis, 205 Schlesinger, Arthur, Jr., 121 Schumpeter, Joseph, 249 Second Machine Age, The (Brynjolfsson and McAfee), 166, 300 secular stagnation, 257 seed drill, 25 seeds, 171 semiconductors, 20 Sen, Amartya, 19, 123, 127, 128 Sendero Luminoso, 287 Senegal, 7, 37 aid to, 223, 224 corruption in, 114 democracy in, 123, 124, 263 demonstrations in, 281 growth in, 261 inequality in, 67 Senkaku islands, 288 Seoul, 201 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks of, 269 services, 67, 260, 261–62 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 82, 267 Seychelles, 284 Shanghai, 201 Shenzhen, 91 Sherpas, 203 Shikha, 33–34 Shinawatra, Thaksin, 254–55, 264 Shinawatra, Yingluck, 255 Shining Path, 287 shipping, 202 shipping containers, 167–68 shock therapy, 219 shoes, 56, 139, 162, 262 Sierra Leone, 220, 285 democracy in, 104, 107 Ebola in, 82 growth in, 50 health system in, 266 violence in, 146, 206 Silk Road, 206 silks, 152 silver, 152 Simon, Julian, 294 Sin, Jaime, 18, 103 Singapore, 7, 16, 184 benign dictatorship in, 126 and democracy, 122, 248, 250 and globalization, 155 growth in, 125, 139, 147 universities in, 247 Singh, Manmohan, 192 Six-Day War, 285 skills and capabilities, 16, 190–92 slavery, 142, 156, 180, 206 smallpox, 214, 215 Smith, Adam, 151, 156, 200–201 Smith, David, 43 Smith, Marshall, 178–79 SMS text messages, 47, 178 Snow, John, 77 social safety net, 38, 39, 68, 164, 307 Sogolo, Nicéphore, 144 soil, 171, 215 Solow, Robert, 165 Somalia, 8, 9, 99, 119, 213, 243 aid to, 224 power vacuum in, 184 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Somoza García, Anastasio, 100, 127 Song-Taaba Yalgré women’s cooperative, 178 South Africa, 7, 17, 18, 20, 22, 37, 43, 46, 127, 143, 145, 155, 182–83, 207 aid to, 223 apartheid in, 44, 57, 68, 100, 103, 135, 141, 180, 182 banks in, 56 corruption in, 264 economic growth in, 183, 235, 262 future of, 234 HIV in, 174 inequality in, 68 infrastructure financing in, 259–60 life expectancy in, 266 political turmoil in, 57 roads in, 202 universities in, 247 South Asia, 37, 50 Southeast Asia, 5, 12, 167 colonialism in, 140 growth in, 141 Southern Rhodesia, 180 South Jakarta, 286 South Korea, 36, 127, 159, 184, 201, 288, 290 aid to, 214, 216 benign dictatorship in, 126 democracy in, 104, 122, 126, 250 as dictatorship, 99, 122 and globalization, 155 growth in, 7, 16, 29, 71, 125, 139, 147, 236, 262 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 68 lack of resources in, 205 land redistribution in, 68 Soviet Union, x, 50, 126, 133–34, 145, 148, 298, 309 Afghanistan invaded by, 134, 146 collapse of, 16, 81, 103, 131, 135, 142, 156, 250, 251 countries controlled by, 141 dictatorships supported by, 100 malaria in, 210 Spain, 105, 123, 140 speech, freedom of, 198–99 Spence, Michael, 86, 165 Spratly Islands, 289 Sputnik, 147, 250 Sri Lanka, 11, 37 economic problems in, 255 engineers from, 56 malaria in, 211 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Stalin, Joseph, 127 state-owned farms, 195 Stavins, Robert, 297 steam engine, 25, 300 Steinberg, James, 299 Stern, Nicholas, 213, 292 Stiglitz, Joseph, 213, 227 stock exchanges, 241 Strait of Malacca, 201 student associations, 110 Subic Bay Naval Station, 201 Subramanian, Arvind, 225 Sudan, 114, 115, 185, 206, 208, 285 aid to, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 violence in, 285 Suharto, 99, 112, 122, 126, 138–39, 144 Sumatra, 152 Summers, Lawrence, 88, 227, 235, 246, 257 Sustainable Development Goals, 217 Swaziland, life expectancy in, 266 sweatshops, 58 Sweden, 159 Switzerland, 27, 202 Sydney, 201 Syria, 8, 285 aid to, 224 conflict in, 118, 119, 146, 233, 255 in Six-Day War, 285 Taiwan, 29, 153, 201, 289, 290 aid to, 216 benign dictatorship in, 126 democracy in, 122, 126, 250 and globalization, 155 growth in, 125, 139, 147, 236, 262 individual leadership in, 187 lack of resources in, 205 Tajikstan, 205, 208 Tanzania: aid to, 214, 216 and democracy, 248 fruit markets in, 58 growth in, 45, 50, 238, 240, 261 purchasing power in, 27 reforms in, 192 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 tariffs, 44, 102, 155, 167, 193, 263, 305 Tarp, Finn, 226 tax revenues, 241, 247 Taylor, Charles, 99, 145 technology, x, 17, 19, 22, 94–96, 135, 150, 151–79, 183, 200, 206–7, 234, 245, 258, 294, 301 for agriculture, 170–71 for banking, 175, 179 in China, 154–55, 236 for education, 178–79 globalization and, 156, 166 for health, 173–75, 179, 293 terrorism and, 287–88 telecommunications, 158 Terai, 211 terms-of-trade ratio, 54 terrorism, 19, 20, 21, 146, 286–88 tetanus, 94, 161 textiles, 25, 56, 139, 152 Thailand, 9, 22, 36, 253–55, 265 benign dictatorship in, 126 child mortality in, 84 corruption in, 254, 264 and democracy, 248, 253–54, 255, 263 growth in, 139, 147, 262 protests in, 255, 263 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Theroux, Paul, 12 Things Fall Apart (Achebe), 72 think tanks, 110 Third Wave, The (Huntington), 121 Thomas, Brendon, 90–91 Tiananmen Square, 148 Tibet, 203 Tigris, 285 timber, 61, 139, 206, 223, 285 Timbuktu, 206 Timor-Leste, 36, 139, 144, 184, 220 aid to, 223 democracy in, 106, 122 infrastructure investment in, 216 poverty in, 122 tin, 139 Tokyo, 201, 277 totalitarianism, 10–11, 16 tourism, 45 toys, 56, 139 trade, x, 6, 17, 20, 22, 52, 156, 157, 162–63, 193, 203, 204–5, 234, 257, 303 in agriculture, 273 Asian economic miracle and, 170, 201 growth of, 157, 158–59, 160 sea-based, 200–201 shipping containers and, 167–68 trade unions, 110 transportation, 166, 261 Truth and Reconciliation Commission, 182 T-shirts, 159, 164 Tuareg, 265 tuberculosis, 75, 94, 161, 205, 214 Tull, Jethro, 25 Tunisia: democracy in, 7, 106, 124, 255, 263 growth in, 50, 238 Turkey, 36, 127, 285 aid to, 223 authoritarian rule in, 255 demand in, 53 democracy in, 106, 123, 124, 263 future of, 234 growth in, 6, 7, 22, 235, 238 protests in, 263 trade encouraged by, 155 universities in, 247 Turkmenistan, 114, 266, 285 Tutu, Desmond, 18, 103, 185 Uganda, 106, 112, 144, 159, 287 aid to, 216 and democracy, 263, 264 growth in, 50 horticulture producers in, 169 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 infrastructure investment in, 216 mobile phones in, 176–77 Ukraine, 143, 192, 233 Ultimate Resource, The (Simon), 294 unemployment benefits, 38, 164 United Fruit Company, 223 United Nations, 79, 212, 217, 258, 275, 298, 309 United Nations’ International Labour Organization, 57 United States, 19, 47, 68, 148, 231, 292, 300 China’s relationship with, 298–99 countries controlled by, 141 coups supported by, 100 democracy criticized in, 126 democracy in, 112, 296 and dictatorships, 139, 222 Iraq invasion by, 8, 118, 124, 146 leadership needed by, 234 natural capital in, 63 Panama invaded by, 144 post–World War II boom in, 262 protection provided by, 289–90 in World War II, 137 universities, 247 urbanization, 4, 22, 233, 268, 276–77, 279 US Agency for International Development (USAID), 95, 170, 171, 216, 308 Uyuni Sal Flat, 205 Uzbekistan, 8, 145, 185, 281, 285 vaccines, 77, 94, 161, 214, 233, 302 Velvet Revolution, 103 Venezuela, 22, 47, 106, 115 and democracy, 248, 263, 264 economic problems in, 255 natural capital in, 63 Vereenigde Oostindische Compagnie (VOC), 136–37 Vietnam, 36, 106, 144, 289 aid to, 214, 224 China’s example followed by, 266 growth in, 7, 45, 50, 125, 128, 147, 262 individual leadership in, 187 inequality in, 67 life expectancy in, 78 rice yields in, 215–16 textiles from, 56 Zheng He’s trip to, 152 Vietnam War, 100, 138, 141, 145, 289 Vincent, Jeffrey, 61 violence, 6, 20, 290 decline in, 4, 115–20, 116, 117, 119, 145–46 poverty deepened by, 119, 119 and poverty traps, 15 over resources, 284–86 Vitamin A deficiency, 173–74 Viviano, Frank, 152 Wade, Abdoulaye, 114, 224 Wałesa, Lech, 18, 103, 143, 149, 184, 186 Walls, Peter, 181 Walmart, 46 Wang Huan, 90–91 war, 5 attention to, 10 and poverty traps, 15 reduction of, 3, 4, 6 watchdog groups, 110 water, 77, 80, 161, 216, 275, 277–80, 307 water conservation, 233 water pollution, 8 water shortages, 22, 73 Watt, James, 25 Wealth and Poverty of Nations, The (Landes), 13 Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), 200–201 Weber, Max, 120 West Africa, 8, 10, 22, 205 colonialism in, 140 West Bengal, 31 Western Samoa, 75, 202 What We Know (AAAS report), 281–82 “When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down” (Eichengreen et al.), 236 White, Howard, 226 white supremacy, 124 “Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed?”


pages: 261 words: 81,802

The Trouble With Billionaires by Linda McQuaig

battle of ideas, Bernie Madoff, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, British Empire, Build a better mousetrap, carried interest, collateralized debt obligation, computer age, corporate governance, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, employer provided health coverage, financial deregulation, fixed income, full employment, George Akerlof, Gini coefficient, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of the telephone, invention of the wheel, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jacquard loom, Jacquard loom, Joseph-Marie Jacquard, laissez-faire capitalism, land tenure, Mark Zuckerberg, market bubble, Martin Wolf, mega-rich, minimum wage unemployment, Mont Pelerin Society, Naomi Klein, neoliberal agenda, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, Paul Samuelson, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, pre–internet, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, The Chicago School, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Tobin tax, too big to fail, trickle-down economics, Vanguard fund, very high income, wealth creators, women in the workforce

And, coming less than a year after the signing of the Montreal Protocol, there was reason to believe that the world would proceed to address this newly discovered problem. With evidence suggesting that global warming was already under way – melting icebergs, rising sea levels, unexplained weather extremes – the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization moved quickly, setting up an independent body called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to review the scientific understanding of the problem. Robert Watson, fresh from his effective handling of the ozone scientific review process and now a senior scientist at NASA, was enlisted as a key figure in the IPCC, eventually becoming its chairman. From his experience with the ozone process, Watson understood that the key resistance to tackling global warming would come from industry, and would be fierce – even fiercer this time around, given the greater clout of the fossil fuel industry interests.

Reports were drawn up after extensive research, which included consultation with industry. A draft was first sent to a few experts and then redrafted and sent to every relevant scientist in the world – about two and a half thousand. After feedback from these experts, it was redrafted and sent back to them for another look. ‘Without any question it’s the most intense peer review system ever,’ ‌Watson said in an interview.2 The IPCC’s first assessment report, released in 1990, was a powerful statement of the problem, effectively a scientific throwing down of the gauntlet to the world. It laid out clearly that the ‘greenhouse effect’ was real, and that, after ten thousand years without a significant change in temperature, the Earth’s surface had been getting detectably warmer since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

In an insightful report entitled Corporations, Climate and the United Nations, Sabrina Fernandes and Richard Girard observe: ‘During the 1970s and into the early ’80s the UN was actually mandated to regulate and monitor the activities of multinational corporations who were perceived to be unduly pressuring states in the Global South and in turn responsible ‌for certain aspects of underdevelopment.’7 This began to change in the 1980s, they note, as illustrated by the replacement of the UN’s regulatory body, the UN Centre on Transnational Corporations, with a new body whose goal was to encourage foreign investment in the developing world, the UN Conference on Trade and Development. This significant transformation at the UN took place just as the global warming problem was coming to world attention in the late 1980s. By 1992, global warming had moved to the forefront as one of the most pressing global issues, prompting world leaders to come together for the Earth Summit in Rio. After the 1995 release of an even stronger second report from the IPCC, pointing to the human ‘fingerprint’ in climate change, world leaders reconvened in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997. Following marathon negotiating sessions in Kyoto, an international treaty was reached to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with US Vice President Al Gore playing an important mediating role. Surprised by the tenacity of the international commitment to action, some key industry players – including BP, Royal Dutch Shell and General Motors – announced they were withdrawing from the anti-Kyoto coalition, leaving Exxon virtually alone in carrying on the struggle.


pages: 219 words: 65,532

The Numbers Game: The Commonsense Guide to Understanding Numbers in the News, in Politics, and inLife by Michael Blastland; Andrew Dilnot

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Atul Gawande, business climate, correlation does not imply causation, credit crunch, happiness index / gross national happiness, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), moral panic, pension reform, pensions crisis, randomized controlled trial, school choice, very high income

Two out of three mean the story is wasting your time, because the easiest way to say something shocking with figures is to be wrong. Outliers—numbers that don’t fit the mold—need especial caution: their claims are large, the stakes are high, and so the proper reaction is neither blanket skepticism, nor slack-jawed credulousness, but demand for a higher standard of proof. Greenhouse gases could cause global temperatures to rise by more than double the maximum warming so far considered likely by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to results from the world’s largest climate prediction experiment, published in the journal Nature this week. These were the words of the press release that led to alarmist headlines in 2005. It continued: The first results from climateprediction.net, a global experiment using computing time donated by the general public, show that average temperatures could eventually rise by up to 11°C [60°F], even if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are limited to twice those found before the industrial revolution.

health care health-care spending heart attacks heart disease heart surgery hospital waiting lists and medical research and mortality rates performance measurement rankings of health-care systems standards of care waiting-time targets weight and longevity See also cancer Healthcare Commission of Britain Health Protection Agency (HPA) heart attacks heart disease heart surgery hedgehogs HEDIS (Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set) Helena, Montana High Wycombe, England HIV/AIDS Hobbit Man Home Office (Britain) Hood, Christopher hospital waiting lists Iceland IID (infectious intestinal diseases) Study illness. See health care immigration income income tax infant development intelligence and birth order Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Council for the Exploration of the Sea International Passenger Survey Interphone Iraq Body Count Iraq war Japan Johns Hopkins University journalists and news media on debt levels on dying pensioners on norovirus epidemic on risks on speed cameras statistical reporting by See also specific newspapers Karinthy, Frigyes Karolinska Institute Kennedy, Charles Kennedy, Sir Ian Kesteven and Grantham Girls’ School King, Mervyn Kleinfeld, Judith Lancet Lawrence, Audrey Liberal Democrats (Britain) life expectancies longevity and weight Loveday, Joshua malaria in East Africa Malta Mammals on Roads Survey Marmor, Ted mastectomies math-skills rankings mean meat, processed median medical research Medicare Middle America Middle Britain Milburn, Alan Milgram, Stanley Mississippi mobile phones mode Mohammed, Mohammed More Damned Lies and Statistics (Best) mortality rates for AIDS/HIV child mortality and general practitioners on roads in UK hospitals multiple sclerosis (MS) Naegele’s Rule National Health Service (NHS) National Hedgehog Survey National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism National Lottery of Britain National Public Radio National Statistics (Britain) natural frequencies Nature Newfoundland New York City New York Observer New York Times Nicomachean Ethics (Aristotle) No Child Left Behind (NCLB) norovirus epidemic North Sea nutritional supplements Obendorf, Peter Olympic games Oman Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Oster, Emily outliers in climate change in human height in T/E levels Oxford University passive smoking Patient Choice patient records Pen, Jan pensioners in Britain percentages performance and the blind men and the elephant in education in health care performance indicators in recycling in road safety physicians.


pages: 1,152 words: 266,246

Why the West Rules--For Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future by Ian Morris

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Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, anti-communist, Arthur Eddington, Atahualpa, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Columbian Exchange, conceptual framework, cuban missile crisis, defense in depth, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of the americas, Doomsday Clock, en.wikipedia.org, falling living standards, Flynn Effect, Francisco Pizarro, global village, God and Mammon, hiring and firing, indoor plumbing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of agriculture, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, Kitchen Debate, knowledge economy, market bubble, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, New Journalism, out of africa, Peter Thiel, phenotype, pink-collar, place-making, purchasing power parity, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, Ronald Reagan, Scientific racism, sexual politics, Silicon Valley, Sinatra Doctrine, South China Sea, special economic zone, Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Steven Pinker, strong AI, The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed, the various products of the whole earth, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, trade route, upwardly mobile, wage slave, washing machines reduced drudgery

In the past, higher temperatures often meant better agricultural yields and rising development (as in the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods), but this time may be different. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested in 2007 that “Altered frequencies and intensities of extreme weather, together with sea level rise, are expected to have mostly adverse effects on natural and human systems … warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible.” And that may be putting it mildly; the small print in their report is even more alarming. The air bubbles in the ice caps show that carbon dioxide levels have fluctuated across the last 650,000 years, from just 180 molecules of carbon dioxide per million molecules of air in the ice ages to 290 parts per million (ppm) in warm interglacials. Carbon dioxide never reached 300 ppm—until 1958. By May 2010 it was clocked at 393 ppm, and the IPCC estimates that if present trends continue unchecked, carbon dioxide levels will reach 550 ppm by 2050—higher than they have been for 24 million years—and average temperatures will jump another 5°F.

Africans and the Industrial Revolution in England. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002. ———. “Africa and the Globalization Process: Western Africa, 1450–1850.” Journal of Global History 2 (2007), pp. 63–86. Institute for International Strategic Studies. The Military Balance 2009. London: Institute for International Strategic Studies, 2009. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007. http://www/ipcc.ch/. International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Update, July 8, 2009 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/02). Iriye, Akira. The Origins of the Second World War in Asia and the Pacific. London: Longman, 1987. Irwin, Douglas. Against the Tide: An Intellectual History of Free Trade. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996.

., 585 Treatise on Agriculture (Wang Zhen), 379, 420n Tripitaka (“Three Baskets” of Buddhist canon), 256 Trobriand Islands, 133, 137 Troy, 199, 241 True Levellers, 452 Tunisia, 315, 364 Turkana Boy, 45, 52, 57 Turkey, 81, 97, 197n, 431, 443–46, 452, 453, 459–61, 528, 605n archaeological sites in, 96, 100, 102–103, 105, 123–25 modernization of, 571 Turkic peoples, 348, 349, 354–56, 358, 361, 364, 366–67, 372, 567; Ottoman, see Ottomans Turkmenistan, 125, 189 2001: A Space Odyssey (Clarke), 63, 149, 182, 183 Ugarit (Syria), 216, 217, 220, 225 Ukraine, 196, 295, 458 Uluburun (Anatolia), 200 ’Umar, 351 Undefeated Sun, 323 United Arab Emirates, 605n United Monarchy, 234 United Nations, 150, 610 Food and Agriculture Organization, 601 Human Development Index, 145–47, 149–50 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 599 United States, 31, 35, 158, 488, 531, 601n, 604, 605, 612, 634 carbon emissions of, 18, 538, 609 China and, 518, 546–47, 585–88, 606 diseases in, 603 economy of, 12, 34, 225, 529–31, 535, 540–41, 542, 553, 578, 582, 588, 597, 598, 615 emigration to, 509, 603 impact of climate change in, 600 industrialization in, 510, 521 Japan and, 10, 534 military spending in, 548, 631 neo-evolutionary theory in, 138–39 nuclear weapons and, 605–606, 608, 616 September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on, 551 Soviet Union and, 526, 527, 533–35, 540–42, 550, 580, 616 technology in, 542, 594, 597, 615 in Vietnam War, 535 in World War I, 529 in World War II, 52, 532, 533, 579 Universal History (Polybius), 263–64 Ur (Mesopotamia), 193–94 Royal Cemetery of, 188–89 Urartu, 248 Urban II, Pope, 372 Uruk (Mesopotamia), 181–88, 190, 192, 194, 203, 206, 207, 210, 223, 229, 562, 610 Uzbekistan, 59, 366, 606n Vagnari (Italy), 273 Valencia, 438 Valens, Emperor, 312, 313 Valerian, Emperor, 310, 328 Vandals, 313, 315, 316, 345 Vedas, 137 Venice, 371, 373, 384, 392, 402, 404, 420n, 427, 429, 431–32, 459 Venter, Craig, 595, 596 Verne, Jules, 507, 511 Vespasian, Emperor, 286 Viagra, 594 Victoria, Queen of England, 6, 7, 10–11, 14, 148 Vienna, Congress of, 489 Vietnam, 11, 127, 407, 408, 587 Vietnam War, 106, 140, 141, 502n, 535 Vikings, 363, 364, 371, 421, 427 Vinland, 371 Virgil, 286 Voltaire, 13, 280, 472–74, 481 von Däniken, Erich, 182–83, 186, 189, 194, 215, 253, 399, 410, 614n Voyage on the Red Sea, The, 273, 275 Wagner, Lindsay, 594 Wales, 472n Wal-Mart, 553 Wang Anshi, 376, 421 Wang Feng, 18 Wang Mang, Emperor, 299 Wang Qirong, 210–11 Wang Yangming, 426, 453, 473n Wang Zhen, 379–80, 420n Wanli, Emperor, 442–43 War and Peace (Tolstoy), 113 Wardi, al-, 398 War of the East, 524, 532 Warring States period, 244n, 264 War of the West, 486–89, 524, 526, 532, 534, 550 Waterloo, battle of, 486 Watt, James, 494–97, 500, 502, 504, 567, 568, 573 Wayne, John, 18 Wealth and Poverty of Nations, The (Landes), 17 weapons, 151, 180, 185, 197, 217, 295, 389 in China, 305, 374, 380 nuclear, see nuclear weapons high-tech, 548, 591–92, 615–16, 618 iron and bronze, 128–29, 181, 191, 200, 208, 233–34, 276 of mass destruction, 605 prehistoric, 57, 80 siege, 277 in World War I, 526; see also guns Weber, Max, 136–37 Wedgwood, Josiah, 498 Wei (China), 265, 266, 335n Weiss, Harvey, 192 Wellington, Duke of, 486 Wendi, Emperor, 337, 345, 346, 354 West Germany, 533, 535 Wheeler, Brigadier Mortimer, 274–75 White, Leslie, 148 Whitney, Eli, 496 Wilhelm II, Kaiser, 524, 525 Wilkinson, John (“Iron-Mad”), 495 William I (“the Conqueror”), King, 194 William of Orange, 20 Wire, The (television show), 442 Woods, Tiger, 594 Wordsworth, William, 491–92 World Bank, 547, 603 World Health Organization, 603–604 World Trade Organization, 610 World War I, 65, 133, 526–29, 531, 533, 605 World War II, 17, 52, 254, 273–75, 526, 531–34, 565, 578, 579, 608 Wozniak, Steve, 542 Wright brothers, 510 Wu (China), 245, 524 Wu, King, 229–31 Wudi, Emperor (Han dynasty), 285, 294, 457 Wudi, Emperor (Liang dynasty), 329 Wuding, King, 212–15, 220, 221 Wu Zetian, 340–42, 344, 345, 355, 363n Wuzong, Emperor, 375 Xia dynasty, 205–209, 214, 235, 245 Xian, Marquis, 251 Xianbei, 335–36 Xiandi, Emperor, 302–304 Xianfeng, Emperor, 10 Xiangyang (China), 392 Xiaowen, Emperor, 336, 338, 362 Xiongnu, 293–95, 298, 299, 301, 303–305, 310, 314, 349, 354 Xishan (China), 124 Xishuipo (China), 126 Xuan, King, 242 Xuan, Marquis, 251 Xuanzong, Emperor, 355–57, 359 Xuchang (China), 79 Xu Fu, 421n Xunzi, 259 Yahgan people, 139 Yale University, 30, 192 Yan (China), 265n Yang, Prince, 221 Yang Guifei, 355–56, 424 Yangzhou (China), 442 Yanshi (China), 209 Yan Wenming, 120, 121 Yellow Turbans, 302 Yemen, 349 Yesugei, 388 Yih, King, 233 Yom Kippur/Ramadan conflict, 90 Yongle, Emperor, 406, 407, 413, 414, 416, 426, 429 You, King, 242–43, 355 Younger Dryas, 92–94, 96, 100, 114, 119, 122, 175, 577–78 Yu, King, 204–208, 214 Yuan dynasty, 587 Yuan Shikai, 528 Yue (China), 524 Yu Hong, 342 Yukichi, Fukuzawa, 15 Zemeckis, Robert, 572 Zeno, Emperor, 316–17 Zenobia, Queen, 311 Zhang Zhuzheng, 442–43 Zhao, King, 232 Zhao (China), 265, 266, 279 Zhaodun, 252–53 Zheng, King, 266–67 Zheng (China), 244 Zhengde, Emperor, 441 Zheng He, 16, 17, 407, 408, 413, 417, 420n, 426, 429, 433, 589 Zhengtong, Emperor, 413, 416, 417 Zhengzhou (China), 209–10, 212 Zhou, Duke of, 230, 257 Zhou, Madame, 424, 426 Zhou dynasty, 214, 221–22, 229–37, 242–45, 250–51, 253, 257, 278, 285, 355, 359n, 369 Zhoukoudian (China), 51–55, 57, 60, 72, 78, 154, 210n, 211 Zhou Man, 408, 410, 413 Zhuangzi, 257–59 Zhu Xi, 422–24, 426, 453 Zhu Yuanzhang, 404–405 Zoroaster, 254n Zoroastrianism, 328, 342 Zuozhuan (commentary on historical documents), 252–53 *Some people think Chinese sailors even reached the Americas in the fifteenth century, but, as I will try to show in Chapter 8, these claims are probably fanciful.


pages: 407 words: 121,458

Confessions of an Eco-Sinner: Tracking Down the Sources of My Stuff by Fred Pearce

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additive manufacturing, air freight, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, British Empire, car-free, carbon footprint, clean water, congestion charging, corporate social responsibility, credit crunch, demographic transition, Fall of the Berlin Wall, food miles, ghettoisation, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Kibera, mass immigration, megacity, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, out of africa, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, profit motive, race to the bottom, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, Steve Jobs, the built environment, urban planning, urban sprawl, women in the workforce

In my last book, The Last Generation, I explained why many scientists believe that the world faces a series of dangerous ‘tipping points’ that could make warming happen much faster and more violently than allowed for in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. The threats include the runaway release of greenhouse gases from natural reservoirs like soils, forests and permafrost; the shutdown of the ocean currents and switch-off of the monsoon; and the rapid break-up of ice sheets, causing a sea-level rise of several metres within a century. All these could be unleashed as carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere rise. The IPCC is soft-pedalling on these doomsday scenarios in its most recent reports, because many of them are difficult to quantify and far from certain. But as one scientist put it to me, ‘If you were about to board a plane and the pilot told you there was a one in ten chance of it crashing, would you still take your seat and buckle up for take-off?

Shroff 131–2 extremism, humanity 5 fairtrade 371 brands 32 chocolate 98 coffee 34 community projects 32 cotton 128–30, 134–5 jewellery 245–7 Fairtrade Foundation 32, 103–4 famines, inefficient dealing with 340 farming see also urban farming energy intensive production 102–3 livestock 211 Nigeria 335–6 water usage 341 favelas Brasilia 347 Rio 114–16, 349 women’s power in 114–16 female emancipation Bangladesh 144–5 population growth 369–70 fertility rates Africa 366 Bangladesh 364 China 364 Europe 366–7 global decline 369 Iran 364 Muslim states 366 fertilizer, from sewage 255 fishing depletion of natural stocks 49, 50, 51, 53 fresh-fish auctions 49 Mauritania 50–2, 53–4 poaching 51–2 preference for line 54 Senegal 52–3, 54 ‘sustainable’ 53 trawlers vs pirogues 52 world-wide 49–50 flour stoneground wholemeal 42–4 wheat for 43–4 Fonebak 277 food see also plant foods cooking 103 imports 100–2 ‘food patriotism’, David Cameron 45, 103, 359 food production, and population growth 340 Forest Stewardship Council approved paper 312 tropical hardwoods 175 Forest Trends 170, 175 forests as carbon offsets 309 maintenance 308–9 Foundation for Adolescent Development 154 Fox, Richard, Homegrown 111 Foxconn, mobile phones 271–2 Friends of the Earth 101, 350 Frison, Emile 84 fruit pickers, immigrant 46–7 fuels, greenest 355–7 Gala, coffee roasting 33–4 Gandhi, Mahatma 360 Gap 141, 142 garlic 89 garment workshops Dhaka 138–44 H&M 140 gas domestic use 242 power stations 227 Siberia 223–5 storage projects 227 gas power, public transport 345 Gazprom 222–4 UK takeovers by 224 gemstones, finance for corrupt regimes 208–9 genetic modification bananas 88–9 cotton 125, 132–3 genetic resources, plant foods 89–92 ginger, China 58 Girardet, Herbert 239–40 Gladstone aluminium smelting 193–7 ecology 192–3 power station 193, 196–7 glass, recycling 255–6 global footprints comparative 317–18 world-wide 317 global warming CO2 emissions 354–5 threat of 354–5 globalization coffee trading 31 consumption 7–10 gold certificates of origin 247 ethically sourced 245–7 extraction process 18 in history 20–1 hoarding 21–2, 134 origins 15 power of 21–2 prices 19, 21 smuggling 21 South Africa 14–22, 205 gold mining access shafts 14–15 Fanakalo language 17 quartz containing 22 recruitment for 17–18 safety 16–17 smuggling 17 Gold Standard 21 Goodall, Chris, How to Live a Low-Carbon Life 244 Gottmann, Jean 351 gourmet chocolate 99 grain growing, water for 211 green beans food miles issue 111–12 Homegrown 104–6, 108–11 hygiene 107 Machakos 104–13 Marks & Spencer 105, 107, 109 smallholdings 104–6, 109 traceability 107, 112–13 Green Gold 246 greenhouse gases see CO2 emissions; nitrogen oxides Grimsby, fresh-fish auctions 49 Grosvenor, paper reprocessing 257–60 Gujarat Agrocel 129–31 organic cotton 129–32 water supplies 130–1 H&M 140, 142 hafnium 208 Hall, Peter 347, 349 Hall and Woodhouse brewery 37–9 Hammond, Geoff 317 Hanson, Jim 355 Harris, Frances 336 Haupt, Melville 19 heat-island effect 348 Heathrow airport CO2 emissions 235–7 fuel supplies 236 land use efficiency 237–8 noise issues 238 HelpAge International 72 herbs in beers 39 conservation 56 oregano 55–6 sage 57–8 thyme 56 Hewitt, Geoff 119–21 Hewlett-Packard 160, 163, 165 Hickey, Dan 120 Hindu philanthropy 133–4 ‘hobbits’ (Homo floresiensis) 325, 328, 331 extinction 332 Homegrown, green beans 104–6, 108–11 hominids see Homo erectus; Homo floresiensis; Homo sapiens; Neanderthals Homo erectus 325, 327, 331 extinction 332 Homo floresiensis (‘hobbits’) 325, 328, 331 extinction 332 Homo sapiens African evolution 328–9 artistic evolution 330–1 common characteristics 5–6 conspicuous consumption 333 cultural evolution 329–30 ecological footprint 333 future of 372 geographical spread 331–2 ice age survival 332–3 social evolution 330 survival skills 332 urbanization 344 virtual extinction 325, 328–9 volcanic winters 325, 328–30, 331 household waste see also sewage collections 251 food growing on 341 landfill sites 261 Thames barge transport 252–3 transfer stations 251–2 How to Live a Low-Carbon Life, Chris Goodall 244 human rights see also child labour Mauritania 184–5 Uzbekistan 147, 151–2 humanity, extremism 5 Humphries, Rick 193–4, 197–8 Hurn airport 237–8 hydroponics 342 IBM 163, 165 ice ages, Homo sapiens’ survival 332–3 immigrant fruit pickers conditions 46–7 pay 47 imports air miles 101 carbon footprints 101–2 plant foods 100–2 incinerators electricity generation from 261 pollution from 260–1 India Bihar 289 cardamom 58 child labour 124 computer recycling 288–92 cotton 124–5, 129–31, 133–5 Delhi 287–92 gold hoarding 134 Hindu philanthropy 133–4 Maral Overseas 133–4, 133–5, 135–7 Toxics Link 290–1 water shortages 130–1, 133 indium, uses 207 Indonesia palm oil 76–7 rainforest clearances 172–3 innovative enterprises, Tanzania 278–9 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 354–5 International Crisis Group 151 International Institute for Environment and Development 103, 339 International Institute for Tropical Agriculture 95, 335 Iqbal Ahmed see also king prawns business empire 61–2, 68–70 Iran, family sizes 364 iron see also steel extraction 205 Italy, rocket 56, 90 Ivory Coast, cocoa 97 JCPenney 141 jewellery, fairtrade 245–7 Joynson-Hicks, Paul, Phones for Africa 277–8 just-in-time assembly 166 retailing 106 Kazakhstan apples 90–1 chromium 205 Keen, David 209–10 Kenya coffee 27–34 Computers for Schools 297–300 desertification reversals 108, 338–9 farm outputs 338–9 German presence in 34–5 green beans 104–13 Khosa, Veronica, AIDS clinics 73–4 Khulna, king prawn industry 63–4, 67–8 Kilimanjaro coffee 27–30 Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union (KNCU) 30–3 king prawns certification scheme needed 69 fry hatcheries 65–6 introduction to UK 62 landowner threats 64–5 middlemen 66–8 organic farming 64 processing plants 67 Seamark 62, 68 sustainability 69–70 Kinyua, Patrick 106–7 Kirkham, Ruth 40 Klor, Babubhai 131 KNCU (Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union) 30–3 Kombe, Jackson 29–30 Kyoto Protocol air travel 236–7 Australia 198 carbon offsets 304, 311 Ministry of Defence 242 Lagavulin, Islay single malt Scotch 44–5 Lamb, Harriet 103–4 land, multiple functions for 316 landfill sites heavy metals 287 household waste 261 Lea Valley 349 Leach, Matthew 260 Letterewe, Scotland 321–2 Lighthouse bakery 42 line-fishing 54 Lister, John 43–4 livestock farming 211 Lloyd Wright, Frank, Broadacre City 346–7 local food 36–7, 45 Logitech 160–1 London congestion charge 345 greenhouse gases 242 household waste 251–3, 261 Lea Valley 349 materials recycling 255–6 MI6 headquarters 241 public services 241–2 sewage 23–4, 254, 261–3 Wandsworth Prison 241 water ring-main 241 London Wildlife Trust 350 Ma, Cheng Liang 352–3 McDonald’s 79, 102–3 Machakos desertification reversals 338–9 green beans from 104–13 Macharia, John 108–9 Madagascar, vanilla 58–9 Mahesh, Priti 290–1 Makinga, Norman 297–9 Malaysia, palm oil 76–7 malnutrition 340 Mandela, Nelson 320 Mandoli, computer recycling 288–91 Manila abortions 154 contraception 153–5 Foundation for Adolescent Development 154 prostitution 153, 155 manures, changes to natural 335–6 Marakele wildlife park 320 Maral Overseas, cotton 133–4, 135–7 margarine from palm oil 76 from whale oil 75 marine national parks, Banc d’Arguin 50–2 Marks & Spencer Blue Horizon jeans 145 cotton 122, 132, 142, 145 fairtrade coffee 32 fairtrade cotton 128, 134–5 green bean imports 105, 107, 109 materials ‘rucksacks’ 204–5 Mauritania debt slavery 186 fishing 50–4 racial structure 185–6 slavery 184–5 meat production 340 mega-cities 344 absorption of urban centres 351–3 eco-projects 345 environmental footprint 344–5 recycling mantra, necessity for 346 wildlife in 349–50 Melbourne, eco-projects 345 Melgar, Junice 154–5 metals see also aluminium; gold antimony 205 bismuth 207 chromium 205 copper 203, 204 global corporations 203 hafnium 208 indium 207 iron/steel 205 materials ‘rucksacks’ 204–5 mining footprint 203–4 mobile phones 273–5 palladium 207 platinum 205, 207 recycling 210, 256, 288, 290–1, 295 rising demands 206 ruthenium 207–8 tantalum 273–6 terbium 208 tin 205, 276–7 waste ores 204–5 world demand for 202–3 zinc 205 Mgase, Jacob Rumisha 28–9 middlemen traders cocoa 96–7 king prawns 66–8 Milonge, Boniface 264 Milonge, Geoffrey market sales 266–7 mitumba imports 264–5 Urafiki market 267–8 Milton Keynes 347 Ministry of Defence, Kyoto Protocol 242 mitumba Dar es Salaam 264–7 Dubai 266 mobile phones assembly 271–2 Foxconn 271–2 Nokia 271, 272 Phones for Africa 277–8 reuse 277–8 toxic chemicals in 272–5 world-wide usage 270–1 money laundering, International Crisis Group 151 Morocco, phosphates 206 Morris, Tim 37–9 Mortimore, Michael 338 Moshi coffee auctions 31–2 curing plant 33 motherboards 161–4 motor cars catalytic converters 207 and urban design 346–7 Motorola 276 Murray, Craig 147–8 Musili, Tom, Computers for Schools Kenya 297–300 Muslim states, fertility rates 366 Musyoki, Jacob 104–6, 113 National Grid 226–7 natural resources, consumption rates 314–15 Neanderthals 325, 328 extinction 332 and Homo sapiens 329 Nellie, Flower-stall Girl 153, 155, 371 Nestlé cocoa 96 fairtrade coffee 32 New Guinea, tropical hardwoods 170, 171 Nicholson-Lord, David 348 Niemeijer, David 337, 339 Niger, reversing desertification 337 Nigeria, crop/livestock integration 335–6 Nine Dragons, paper recycling 284–5 nitrogen oxides, ozone production 307 NKD 143 Nokia, mobile phones 271, 272, 276 Novelis, aluminium recycling 199–200 Noyabr’sk, oilfields 221–2 nuclear power stations 227, 355–6 waste from 356 nuclear-fusion research reactors, Culham 226 offices, ecological footprints 315 oil Alaska 215–20 Siberia 220–2 Orbost, carbon offsets 305–6 oregano 55–6 organic farming bananas 87 coffee 30 crop/livestock integration 336 king prawns 64 Nigeria 335–6 organic food, air freighted 102 overconsumption 360 Padulosi, Stefano 56, 90–2 Pakistan, cotton 124 palladium, source 207 palm oil 75–8 and biofuels 77 rainforest clearances for 76–7 paper burning 260 Chinese recycling 280–2, 284–5 Forest Stewardship Council approved 312 manufacture 260 recycling 257–60 sustainable sources 312 Papua New Guinea, rainforest clearances 169, 173–5 pathogen risks, urban farming 343 Paul Reinhart 123 peanuts 89–90 Pendolinos 233 people smuggling, to Canary Islands 55 personal footprints 4–5, 242–4, 318 city metabolism 240 pesticides banana diseases 87 cotton 124–5, 130 natural 87, 130 Pethick, John 262 Philippines see Manila Phones for Africa, Tanzania 278 phosphates fertilizers 205–6 Morocco 206 phthalates, mobile phones 273 pineapples 89 pistachios 91 plankton, carbon offsets 310 plant foods see also foods by name air-miles issues 111–12 ancient varieties 89–90 benefits of local 45 carbon footprint 101–2 energy intensive production 102–3 extinctions 84 genetic resources 89–92 mutations 85–6 seasonality 100, 105 UK imports 100–2, 111–12 wild 55–60, 89–90 plastic bottles (PET), recycling 256–7, 282–3 platinum South Africa 205 uses for 207 Plexus, cotton 123 plywood Chinese originated 175–6 from illegal logging 169, 174–5 poaching, fisheries 51–2 pollution imprint of 333 incinerators 260–1 Siberia 221–2 pomegranates, Turkmenistan 91–2 population growth average family size 361, 362 family-planning policies 364–5 female attitudes 365–6 female emancipation 369–70 fertility rates 366–7 and food production 340 limiting 360–1 longevity 362–3 mortality rates 366, 367 potential diminution 363–4 stabilization 368–9 twentieth century 361–2 power stations China 358 coal-fired 228–31, 356 natural gas 227 nuclear 227, 355–6 tidal 355 wave 355 wind 355 Poynton, Scott 175, 176 prawns see king prawns prostitution, Manila 153, 155 Prudhoe Bay 214–20 public services, environmental footprint 241–2 public transport, gas powered 345 publishing, carbon footprint 313 Qiaotou 179 rainforest clearances Borneo 172 consequences 77–8 illegal logging 170–1 Indonesia 172–3 logging concessions 173–4 for palm oil 76–7 Papua New Guinea 170, 173–5 slash-and-burn agriculture 95 for soya beans 78 ‘sustainability’ audits 174 tropical hardwoods 169–70, 175 recycling 10 see also reuse aluminium 199–201, 256, 285–6 centres 255 computers 288–91 domestic 251 economics 210 electronic waste 294–5 ethos 282–4 glass 255–6 metals 210, 256, 288, 290–1, 295 paper 257–60 plastic bottles 256–7 steel 210, 256 textiles 264–9 Rees, William 315 Register, Roger 347 Rehfish, Mark 262 Renner, Michael 209 retailing just-in-time 106 traceability 107 reuse computers 297–300 mobile phones 277–8 Rhine, damaged ecology 321 Rimbunan Hijau, logging concessions 173–4 Rio de Janiero favelas 114–16, 349 Rosinha 114 Rio Tinto, metal mining 203 Rio Tinto Aluminium environmental claims 198 Gladstone 192–4 Tasmania 197 rivers, wildlife in clean 262–3 Rivoli, Pietra 269 Roberts, Tony 299–300 rocket, Italian 56, 90 Rosinha, Women’s Association of 114–16 Roszak, Theodore 368 Royal Swaziland Sugar Corporation 80–1 rubbish see household waste Russia coal exports 229–30 gas 224–5 oil 220–2 Siberia 220–1 ruthenium 207–8 S & A Produce, strawberry pickers 46–8 sage, Albanian 57–8 Sahara, efforts to reverse spread 334 Sainsbury’s 47 Salam, M.

If I only care about warming over the next few years, the figure will be higher than if my perspective is for centuries hence. I am sorry to complicate matters so. But when we are being sold offset packages like cans of beans, it is wise to know a bit about what’s in the tin. Most scientists agree that the CO2 emissions from an aircraft flight need to be multiplied by some figure to give a reasonable estimate of the warming effect of all the emissions. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says the best estimate, based on a 100-year time horizon, is that the warming effect of emissions from aircraft is 2.7 times the effect of CO2 alone. Atmosfair multiplies CO2 emissions by three, Climate Care multiplies by two and CarbonNeutral simply calculates CO2 with no allowance for other gases. That explains some of the discrepancy between the calculators for my Brisbane trip, but not all of it.


pages: 337 words: 103,273

The Great Disruption: Why the Climate Crisis Will Bring on the End of Shopping and the Birth of a New World by Paul Gilding

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airport security, Albert Einstein, Bob Geldof, BRICs, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, Climategate, commoditize, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, decarbonisation, energy security, Exxon Valdez, failed state, fear of failure, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Joseph Schumpeter, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, Naomi Klein, new economy, nuclear winter, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, purchasing power parity, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, union organizing, University of East Anglia

When this approach is applied to climate change, it is interesting to note that every major grouping of qualified scientists that has analyzed the issue comes to the same conclusion and has done so consistently over time and around the world. Examples include national science academies, which are the peak science bodies across all disciplines in a given country, or major international subsets of the scientific community, such as atmospheric scientists or, at the highest and most comprehensive level globally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The broad conclusion they all come to is that we face a significant risk of major change that undermines society’s prosperity and stability, we are a substantial contributor to the risk, and to reduce the level of risk we should dramatically reduce emissions of the pollution that causes the problem. As with most issues in sustainability, defining the problem and the solutions is really very simple.

One study by Naomi Oreskes published in the journal Science demonstrated that of the papers whose abstract contained the keywords global climate change between 1993 and 2003, none questioned the consensus position—not one.5 Oreskes’s subsequent book Merchants of Doubt interestingly reveals how many of the figures who fronted the tobacco industry’s antiscience campaign to deny the link between smoking and lung cancer are also now prominent and vocal climate skeptics. A more recent study in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences used a data set of 1,372 published climate researchers and their publication and citation history, finding that 97 to 98 percent of those climate researchers publishing most actively on the topic agreed with the tenets of climate change as identified by the IPCC. They also found the expertise and prominence of the scientists who agreed with the IPCC findings to be substantially higher than that of the scientists who did not.6 Of course, there are always outliers who hold a different view regarding the level of consensus on an issue, and that is good. In the case of climate change, though, this uncertainty, where it is genuine, applies to detailed subissues such as regional variations or speed of change, not to the basic conclusion.

So while I challenged myself constantly in case I was missing something, the evidence that reinforced my case continued to mount. The scientific evidence over late 2007 to early 2008 had been particularly distressing. The most dramatic was the accelerated melting of the northern polar ice cap. In the summer melt season of 2007, the arctic sea ice reached a new record low, with more than one million square kilometers less ice than the previous record low set only in 2005, and 41 percent below the 1978–2000 average.1 The IPCC climate models had predicted consistent melting, but this was so far ahead of their forecasts that it sent shock waves through the science community. Professor Mark Serreze, director of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center and an arctic ice expert, reported his shock at how the ice levels had “simply fallen off a cliff.” Along with others, he argued that if trends continued, all summer ice might disappear by 2030, a full seventy years earlier than many of the models had predicted.


pages: 234 words: 63,149

Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World by Ian Bremmer

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airport security, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, blood diamonds, Bretton Woods, BRICs, capital controls, clean water, creative destruction, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, energy security, European colonialism, failed state, global rebalancing, global supply chain, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Julian Assange, labour mobility, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Nixon shock, nuclear winter, Parag Khanna, purchasing power parity, reserve currency, Ronald Reagan, smart grid, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, Stuxnet, trade route, uranium enrichment, Washington Consensus, WikiLeaks, Yom Kippur War

Brown, “The New Geopolitics of Food,” Foreign Policy, May/June 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=full. 34. OECD/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2011), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011–2020, OECD Publishing, http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2011_agr_outlook-2011-en. 35. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,” http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains1.html. 36. Javier Blas, “Nations Make Secret Deals over Grain,” Financial Times, April 10, 2008, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c4cb03dc-074a-11dd-b41e-0000779fd2ac.html#axzz1bFTh1klM. 37. Brown, “The New Geopolitics of Food.” 38. Tom Burgis, “Madagascar Scraps Daewoo Farm Deal,” Financial Times, March 18, 2009, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7e133310-13ba-11de-9e32-0000779fd2ac.html#axzz1RujI3Erx. 39.

CHAPTER FOUR Winners and Losers There is no security on this earth, there is only opportunity. —General Douglas MacArthur Few countries on earth are as vulnerable to rising tides as the Republic of Maldives, a string of 1,190 coral islands stretching north–south a few hundred miles from India’s southwest coast. About 80 percent of its islands are less than forty inches above sea level, and the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that unless global warming is reversed, the Indian Ocean could rise to swallow the Maldives by the end of this century.1 That’s why, even before he arrived in Copenhagen for the ill-fated global climate summit, President Mohamed Nasheed decided on a dramatic play for the world’s attention. On October 17, 2009, Nasheed convened the most unusual cabinet meeting in history.

., Subcommittee on Commerce, Manufacturing and Trade, 75 Hu Jintao, 162 Human Rights Watch, 135 Hungary, 53 Hussein, Saddam, 124 Hu Yaobang, 53 hydrocarbon energy, 99 hyperinflation, 37 IAEA, 207n Iceland, in Arctic Council, 96–97 India, 3, 9, 10, 16, 24–25, 26, 28, 33, 40, 55, 79, 117, 122, 155, 161, 167–68, 170, 183, 187 biofuel production in, 100 China’s rivalry with, 25, 70, 115, 173, 178 climate change and, 94 defense spending of, 129 demand for grain in, 98–99 economic growth in, 98–99, 148, 166 energy imported by, 30 famine in, 100 food riots in, 98 nuclear program of, 57, 76 Pakistan’s conflict with, 25, 70, 152, 158, 165–66 urbanization in, 99, 118 water security in, 105 in World Bank and IMF, 29–30 Indochina, 40 Indonesia, 48, 51, 55, 70, 71, 76, 114, 120, 122, 194 biofuel production in, 100 economic growth in, 99 multinationals in, 80 industrialization, 104 inflation, 32, 39, 49, 60 information revolution, 92–93 intellectual property, 84 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, UN, 109 International Energy Agency, 94, 100 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 4, 22, 27–28, 29–30, 80, 118, 120, 134, 135, 167 American and European influence in, 42, 43–44 creation of, 39, 43 Greece aided by, 45 world currency and debt crises resolved by, 38 International Telecommunications Union (ITU), 88–89 Internet, 22, 33, 87–91, 93, 94, 180 Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), 87, 88 Internet Engineering Task Force, 87 Internet Society, 87 Iran, 14, 47, 48, 69, 117, 123, 125, 136, 139, 154 Internet in, 90, 92 nuclear program of, 15, 55, 56, 58–59, 73, 123–24, 158 protests in, 192 revolution in, 112–13 Iraq, 15, 47, 48, 58, 64, 69, 113, 117, 124, 127, 175, 183, 187, 202n U.S. withdrawal from, 32, 202n Ireland, 126 Ismay, Hastings Lionel, 133 Israel, 48–49, 56, 69, 113, 117, 129, 130 as exposed state, 136 Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 17, 136, 158 nuclear program of, 57, 207n Italy, 19, 25, 39, 45, 47, 181 Japan, 15, 16, 19–20, 22, 25, 30, 47, 50, 70, 82–83, 114, 120, 121, 129, 143, 148, 155, 166 aging population of, 120 biofuel production in, 100 China’s tension with, 69, 71, 114, 135–36, 173, 177–78 climate change and, 94 debt problems of, 20 as exposed state, 135–36 grain production, 104 oil imported by, 47 political and economic malaise of, 3 post–World War II reconstruction and growth of, 39, 45–47, 50–51 reduced role of, 194 Jiang Zemin, 60 job creation, 32 Johnson, Lyndon, 100 Jordan, 48, 69, 113, 176 JPMorgan Chase, 75 Kan, Naoto, 20 Kawasaki, 127 Kazakhstan, 54, 122, 137, 141, 177, 179 Kenya, 72, 106, 177 Kimberley Process (KP), 131–32 Korb, Lawrence, 191 Kosovo, 181 Kuwait, 48, 71 Kyoto Protocol, 94 Lagarde, Christine, 27–28 Lake Victoria, 106 Lampedusa Tunisian Collective, 19 Laos, 105 Latin America, 40, 59, 85 Chinese investments in, 80 cooperation in, 115–16, 174 corruption in, 115–16 debt crisis in, 37 League of Nations, 170 Liberal Democratic Party, Japanese, 20 Libya, 19, 30, 48, 69, 134, 138–39, 192 civil war in, 112, 113, 175, 202n oil exports of, 117 Lizza, Ryan, 113n Lockheed Martin, 129 London, 33, 121 Lula da Silva, Luiz Inácio, 55 Maastricht Treaty, 54 MacArthur, Douglas, 39, 45–46, 109 Mack, Mary Bono, 75 McKinsey & Company, 146 McKinsey Global Institute, 99 Madagascar, 102 mad cow disease, 103 Mahbubani, Kishore, 114–15 Malaysia, 51 Maldives, 9, 109–10 Mandelbaum, Michael, 11 Marange mine, 131–32 Margrethe, queen of Denmark, 7–8 Martin, Paul, 1–2 MasterCard, 75 Medicaid, 12 Medicare, 12, 189 Medvedev, Dmitry, 203n Merkel, Angela, 9, 18 metals, 147 Mexico, 55, 122 borrowing by, 37 food riots in, 98 as shadow state, 136–37 Middle East, 40, 48, 59, 136, 175 as potential hotspot, 69–72, 113–14, 152 water scarcity in, 104 minerals, 147 Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), Japan, 46 Mongolia, 122 Morgenthau, Henry, Jr., 41 Morocco, 69, 101, 113, 176 Mozambique, 102, 120 Mubarak, Hosni, 89, 113, 192–93 Mugabe, Robert, 7–8, 131–32 multinational companies, 74–75, 79, 80, 83, 91, 119, 126–28, 139–40 mutually assured destruction, 172 Myanmar, 123, 124, 125 Chinese companies in, 80 nanotechnology, 147 Napoleon I, emperor of France, 11 Napoleonic Wars, 167 Nasdaq, 75 Nasheed, Mohamed, 9, 110 National Committee on U.S.

Masters of Mankind by Noam Chomsky

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affirmative action, American Legislative Exchange Council, Berlin Wall, failed state, God and Mammon, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), land reform, Martin Wolf, means of production, nuremberg principles, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, Paul Samuelson, Plutocrats, plutocrats, profit maximization, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Silicon Valley, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, union organizing, urban renewal, War on Poverty, Washington Consensus, Westphalian system

One side consists of the overwhelming majority of scientists, all of the world’s major national academies of science, the professional science journals, and the IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). They agree that global warming is taking place; that there is a substantial human component; that the situation is serious and perhaps dire; and that very soon, maybe within decades, the world might reach a tipping point where the process will escalate sharply and will be irreversible, with severe social and economic effects. It is rare to find such consensus on complex scientific issues. The other side consists of skeptics, including a few respected scientists who caution that much is unknown—which means that things might not be as bad as thought, or might be worse. Omitted from the contrived debate is a much larger group of skeptics: highly regarded climate scientists who regard the regular reports of the IPCC as much too conservative.


pages: 353 words: 98,267

The Price of Everything: And the Hidden Logic of Value by Eduardo Porter

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Alvin Roth, Asian financial crisis, Ayatollah Khomeini, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, British Empire, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, clean water, Credit Default Swap, Deng Xiaoping, Edward Glaeser, European colonialism, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial deregulation, Ford paid five dollars a day, full employment, George Akerlof, Gordon Gekko, guest worker program, happiness index / gross national happiness, housing crisis, illegal immigration, immigration reform, income inequality, income per capita, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Jean Tirole, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Joshua Gans and Andrew Leigh, Kenneth Rogoff, labor-force participation, laissez-faire capitalism, loss aversion, low skilled workers, Martin Wolf, means of production, Menlo Park, Mexican peso crisis / tequila crisis, new economy, New Urbanism, peer-to-peer, pension reform, Peter Singer: altruism, pets.com, placebo effect, price discrimination, price stability, rent-seeking, Richard Thaler, rising living standards, risk tolerance, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, stem cell, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, superstar cities, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, ultimatum game, unpaid internship, urban planning, Veblen good, women in the workforce, World Values Survey, Yom Kippur War, young professional, zero-sum game

Data on bestselling cars and their carbon emissions are from “New Car CO2 Report,” Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, London, March 2009 (http://www.smmt.co.uk/downloads/SMMT-Annual-CO2-report.pdf, accessed on 08/16/2010); Autodata (http://www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html, accessed 01/15/2010); and www.fueleconomy.gov. Data on the path of CO2 emissions and global warming is from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, “International Energy Outlook,” May 2010; the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change, 2007 Synthesis Report” (at www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf, accessed 07/19/2010); The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Executive Summary, London, October 2006 (webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternre view_index.cfm , accessed 07/19/2010). Estimates of population and the availability of water in 2050 are from a United Nations Press Conference on Key Issues Relating to Climate Change and Sustainable Development, November 6, 2009 (www.un.org/News/briefings/docs/2009/091106_Climate_Change.doc.htm, accessed 07/19/2010). 209-216 The Ethics of Tomorrow: Americans’ declining concerns about climate change are discussed in Frank Newport, “Americans’ Global Warming Concerns Continue to Drop,” Gallup Report, March 11, 2010 (www.gallup.com/poll/126560/americans-global-warming-concerns-continue-drop.aspx, accessed 07/19/2010).

A 2005 study of what Chinese were willing to pay to avoid sickness or death from air pollution calculated that, at the official exchange rate, the median value of a statistical life could be as little as $4,000. This kind of valuation would lead to some untenable decisions about allocating resources across the world. Representatives of developing countries were outraged when a report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1995 assessed the impact of global warming valuing statistical lives at $150,000 in poor countries and at $1.5 million in rich ones. Did this mean, they asked, that protecting people in poor countries from climate change provided less bang for the buck than protecting citizens of the rich world? So the panel backtracked, threw out its sophisticated economic analysis, and settled for the politically tenable notion that we are all worth the same, $1 million whether in rich countries or poor.

PRECISELY BECAUSE ENERGY is not sufficiently taxed, humanity consumes it with abandon, spewing around 39 billion tons of CO2 from energy use, 60 percent more than in 1980. Other dynamics, like deforestation, add another 20 billion tons. Because of this, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen by more than half since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. And global temperatures have risen by about half a degree Celsius since then. We have a lot more warming coming. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of scientists studying warming around the world, on present trends greenhouse gas emissions will grow between 25 and 90 percent from 2000 to 2030. Along this path, the planet would warm at least 1.8 degrees Celsius and perhaps up to 6.4°C over the course of the current century. For comparison, we are only 5°C warmer than we were during the last Ice Age. It doesn’t require a lot of warming to cause environmental havoc.

The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America's Future by Michael Levi

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American energy revolution, Berlin Wall, British Empire, Carmen Reinhart, crony capitalism, deglobalization, energy security, Exxon Valdez, fixed income, full employment, global supply chain, hiring and firing, hydraulic fracturing, Induced demand, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kenneth Rogoff, manufacturing employment, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea

Basic economics says that the value added to the economy from a barrel of oil production is equal to the difference between what it costs to produce the oil and the value of the oil to its consumer (which is bounded below by the price of oil), minus any externalities. The full impact of a given barrel stays positive so long as this difference is greater than the resulting climate damage. James Hansen et al., “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” The Open Atmospheric Science Journal 2 (2008). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, ed. Robert T. Watson (Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 2002). James Hansen, “Game Over for the Climate,” New York Times, May 9, 2012. Hansen notes that the oil sands contain enough carbon to increase concentrations by 120 ppm, but he does not note that only about half of CO2 emissions end up in the atmosphere; the rest end up in oceans and land.

Author’s calculations are based on figures taken from International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris: OECD, 2011). The author thanks Paul Joskow for this observation. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007. Michael A. Levi, “Climatic Consequences of Natural Gas as a Bridge Fuel,” Climatic Change, January 2013. Daniel P. Schrag, “Is Shale Gas Good for Climate Change?” Daedalus 141, no. 2 (Spring 2012). Tom Zeller Jr., “Studies Say Natural Gas Has Its Own Environmental Problems,” New York Times, April 11, 2011. Piers Forster et al., “2007: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing,” in Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Susan Solomon et al., eds. (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007). Robert W.

Richard S. Lindzen, “Global Warming: How to Approach the Science,” Campaign to Repeal the Climate Change Act Seminar, http://impactofcc. NOTES FOR PAGES 87–95 • 229 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. blogspot.com/2012/02/richard-s-lindzen-reconsidering-climate.html, 4. This was an audiovisual presentation at the UK House of Commons on February 22, 2012. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Box 10.2, Figure 1,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report, ed. S. Solomon et al. (Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 2007). David Chandler, “Revised MIT Climate Model Sounds Alarm,” MIT TechTalk 53, May 20, 2009, http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/techtalk53-26.pdf. More precisely, if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is raised by 1 ppm, it takes about a hundred years for that to decay to 0.37 ppm (i.e., by a factor of e).


pages: 501 words: 134,867

A Line in the Tar Sands: Struggles for Environmental Justice by Tony Weis, Joshua Kahn Russell

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Bakken shale, bilateral investment treaty, call centre, carbon footprint, clean water, colonial exploitation, conceptual framework, corporate social responsibility, decarbonisation, Deep Water Horizon, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, energy transition, Exxon Valdez, failed state, global village, guest worker program, happiness index / gross national happiness, hydraulic fracturing, immigration reform, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), investor state dispute settlement, invisible hand, liberal capitalism, LNG terminal, market fundamentalism, means of production, Naomi Klein, new economy, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, profit maximization, race to the bottom, smart grid, special economic zone, working poor

And that demands action: “The carbon emissions from that coal, and from oil and natural gas, and agriculture and so much other human activity—causes global warming, and we have to act to cut those emissions, and act now.”2 However, the AFL-CIO still has not endorsed even the minimal targets for carbon reduction proposed by the world’s leading body of climate scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), let alone the reduction of carbon in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million, which America’s leading climate scientist, James Hansen, and many other experts say is necessary to prevent those “catastrophic consequences for human civilization.” Meanwhile, organized labour has become an enthusiastic proponent of “green jobs.” The AFL-CIO established a Center for Green Jobs to promote green jobs, establish appropriate job standards, and help train workers to fill them.

See fracking hydrocarbon consumption, 25 hydrocarbon extraction, 105 hydrocarbons, 9, 231, 254, 281, 285 Idle No More movement, 16, 29, 74–75, 144, 214, 231, 251, 261, 273–74, 325n43, 349n11 (ch.24) Imperial Oil, 76, 95, 138, 141 impoverishment, intersection of with colonialism, labour, capital, and the state, 87 India, 61, 78, 102; trade agreement with, 93 Indigeneity, resurgence and, 259 Indigenous Economic Principles, 238 Indigenous Environmental Network (IEN), 170, 176, 187, 208, 212, 236, 240, 242, 244, 247, 250–51, 271, 293; Protecting Mother Earth Summit (2006), 246 Indigenous lands, 316; settling of, 96–97, 115 Indigenous-led movement, proposal for, 267–78 Indigenous peoples, 9, 13, 16–18, 23, 48, 55, 185, 204, 287, 298, 311–12; activism by, 66, 68, 69–72, 74, 75, 98; and age of fossil fuels, 229–39; alienation of, 255; alliances with environmental NGOs, 41–42; and building economics for seventh generation, 229–39; cancer among, 53, 114, 116, 135, 140, 208, 236, 254; and Chemical Valley, 135–45; children, 255, 261–63; economic marginalization of, 254; exploitation of, 97, 115, 125–26, 255, 258, 295, 299; genocide of, 85; Healing Walk, 16, 88, 127–33; industrialization of territories of, 257; and Keystone XL, 169, 280; killing and displacement of, 97; languages of, 155; in Latin America, 94; as most oppressed group in Canada, 69–70; and Northern Gateway project, 147–59; politicization of, 251; poverty among, 114; resistance by, 16, 18, 41, 80, 143–45, 156–59, 253–66, 267–78; respiratory illness among, 114, 116, 135; self-determination of, 12, 93, 98, 256, 258, 260–61, 271, 276; traditional knowledge of, 153, 156, 259–60; traditions of, 254; two-spirits (okichidaakwewag), 255, 261–63, 348n6; and UKTSN, 207–16; and uranium mining, 315–16; women, 193, 209, 213, 242, 246, 251–52, 255, 261–63 Indigenous rights, 81, 122, 124–26, 128, 153, 208–9, 268, 271–75, 277, 294; strategic framework of (NRF), 240–52, 257–59. See also treaty rights Indigenous Tar Sands Campaign, 74 industrial genocide, 64, 69 “in situ extraction,” 9 “insourcing,” 84 institutional disruption, 293–94 institutional ecology, 298, 353n3; “green jobs” and, 301–4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 218 International Energy Agency (IEA), 27, 28, 101, 304 International Labour Organization, 303, 335n13, 353n10; Convention 169: 251 International Transport Workers’ Federation, 307 Inuit, 258, 316 Iraq: oil imports from, 31; US invasion of, 99 Israel: “extreme” tar sands extraction in, 105–7; trade agreement with, 93; Zionism in, 105–7 Israel Chemicals, 106 Israel Energy Initiatives (IEI), 105–7 Italy, 102 Jacobsen, David, 56 Jewish National Fund (JNF), 106–7 Jimisawaabandaaming, 237 Johanson, Reg, 163 Jonas, Howard, 107 Jones, Van, 244, 284 Jordan, “extreme” tar sands extraction in, 107–8 Jordan Energy and Mines Limited, 108 Journal of Power Sources, 283 jurisdictional contestation, 295–96; Indigenous form of, 295 Kalamazoo (Michigan), 116, 137, 182; Enbridge pipeline spill in, 195–206 Kalamazoo River, 17 Karak International Oil, 108 kerogen-infused oil shale, 105–7 kerogen shale, 6, 100–101 Keynesianism, 298, 302 Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline, 5, 12, 17, 18, 30, 41, 62–63, 77–79, 91, 102, 116, 149, 162, 165, 204–5, 232–36, 250, 282, 314, 315; direct action at White House to stop, 166–80, 279–81, 284, 312; Gulf Coast resistance to, 181–94; jobs and energy security brought by, 233; labour movement and, 219–23 Kihci Pikiskwewin (Speaking the Truth), 118–26 Kinder Morgan, 11, 116, 160, 260; Trans Mountain Pipeline, 11, 91, 95, 125, 149, 162 Klamath River Native organizing, 168 Klare, Michael, 313 Klein, Naomi, 170, 173, 246, 284 Klein, Ralph, 38, 51 Kluane people (Yukon), 153 Kyoto Protocol, 29, 53, 124, 218 La Boétie, Étienne de, 286 Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA), 220–22 Labor Network for Sustainability, 220 Laboucan-Massimo, Melina, 209, 248 labour, intersection of with colonialism, the state, capital, and impoverishment, 87 labour movement, 287; and climate change, 217–25, 244; and environmental movement, 86, 88, 90 Lac-Méantic (Quebec), 81, 182 LaDuke, Winona, 246 Lakehead pipelines, 231 Lakota Nation, 235–36 Lameman, Alphonse, 122 Lax Kw’alaams Nation, 264 lead, 136 learning disabilities, 140 Leclerc, Christine, 163–64 Leduc #1, 40 Leggett, Sheila, 148–49, 156 Lenape people, 253 Lepine, Lionel, 208, 248 Levant, Ezra, 50–51 Lickers, Amanda, 265 Liepert, Ron, 56 Life of Mine permit, 169 liquefied natural gas (LNG), 241 Little Village Environmental Justice Organization, 280 Lockridge, Ada, 144 logging, protection of forests from industrial, 70 London Rising Tide, 209 Louisiana, 102, 183 Lovins, Amory, 356n25 Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), 60–62 Lubicon Cree: land settlement agreement, 115; struggle of, 113–17; undermining sovereignty of, 114 Lukacs, Martin, 57 LyondellBasell, 189 Mabee, Holly Spiro, 71–72 Machado, Antonio, 75 Mackenzie Basin, 33 Madagascar, “extreme” tar sands extraction in, 104–5 Madagascar Oil, 104–5 Maisonneuve magazine, 60 Malaysia, 102 Manitoba: destruction of treaty lands in, 125; soil and lake acidification in, 33 Marathon, 60 Marcellus Shale formation, 283, 314–15 “market ecology,” 46, 298, 302, 304, 309; green growth and, 300–301 market fundamentalism, 95 Marois, Pauline, 82 Marx, Karl: Grundrisse, 309 Masten, Scott, 202 Mathias Colomb Cree Nation (Pukatawagan), 74 Matthews, Hans, 149 Mayflower (Arkansas), 17, 182, 189 McKibben, Bill, 169, 170, 173, 220, 311 McMichael, Philip, 68 “megaload” corridor, 11 Mercredi, Mike, 248 mercury, 136, 254 methane, 15, 241, 324n33 Métis people, 4, 128, 131, 254, 258 Mexico, poverty in, 89 Meyer, John M., 316 Michif people, 253, 259 Michigan.

Since the early 1970s, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have risen by roughly 2 ppm per year, and in 2013 they surpassed 400 ppm for the first time in millions of years. 34. Two major examples are how declining sea and glacial ice means declining albedo and increasing thermal absorption in the Arctic Ocean and across high-latitude land masses, and how thawing permafrost threatens to release vast stores of methane. 35. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 5th Assessment Report, 2013; James Hansen, Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth about the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity (New York: Bloomsbury, 2009). 36. David Biello, “‘Greenhouse Goo,”’ Scientific American, 308,7 (2013), 56–61; see also Neil C. Swart and Andrew J. Weaver, “The Alberta Oil Sands and Climate” in Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, 134–136, February 19, 2012. 37.


pages: 395 words: 116,675

The Evolution of Everything: How New Ideas Emerge by Matt Ridley

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affirmative action, Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, Albert Einstein, Alfred Russel Wallace, altcoin, anthropic principle, anti-communist, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, bitcoin, blockchain, British Empire, Broken windows theory, Columbian Exchange, computer age, Corn Laws, cosmological constant, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, discovery of DNA, Donald Davies, double helix, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lorenz: Chaos theory, Edward Snowden, endogenous growth, epigenetics, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, falling living standards, Ferguson, Missouri, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Frederick Winslow Taylor, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, George Santayana, Gunnar Myrdal, Henri Poincaré, hydraulic fracturing, imperial preference, income per capita, indoor plumbing, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, joint-stock company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, Khan Academy, knowledge economy, land reform, Lao Tzu, long peace, Lyft, M-Pesa, Mahatma Gandhi, Mark Zuckerberg, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, mobile money, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, Necker cube, obamacare, out of africa, packet switching, peer-to-peer, phenotype, Pierre-Simon Laplace, price mechanism, profit motive, RAND corporation, random walk, Ray Kurzweil, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, rising living standards, road to serfdom, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Satoshi Nakamoto, Second Machine Age, sharing economy, smart contracts, South Sea Bubble, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thorstein Veblen, transaction costs, women in the workforce

The wealthy can buy indulgences (carbon offsets) so as to keep flying their private jets, but none must depart from faith (in carbon dioxide) as set out in scripture (the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). It is the duty of all to condemn heretics (the ‘deniers’), venerate saints (Al Gore), heed the prophets (of the IPCC). If we do not, then surely Judgement Day will find us out (with irreversible tipping points), when we will feel the fires of hell (future heatwaves) and experience divine wrath (worsening storms). Fortunately, God has sent us a sign of the sacrifice we must make – I have sometimes been struck by the way a wind farm looks like Golgotha. When Rajendra Pachauri resigned as chairman of the supposedly neutral and scientific IPCC in February 2015, his resignation letter to the UN Secretary General included the remarkable admission: ‘For me the protection of Planet Earth, the survival of all species and sustainability of our ecosystem is more than a mission.

‘Mahatma’ 178 Garzik, Jeff 312 Gas Research Institute 136 Gassendi, Pierre 12, 13 Gates, Bill 222 Gaua 81 Gazzaniga, Michael 144, 147 GCHQ 303 genes: background 59–61; function of 65; and the genome 62–4; and junk or surplus DNA 66–72; mutation 72–5; selfish gene 66, 68 Genghis Khan 87, 223 geology 17 George III 245 Georgia Inst. of Technology 272 German Society for Racial Hygiene 198, 202 Germany 12, 29, 101, 122, 138, 231, 243, 247, 251, 253, 318 Ghana 181, 229 Giaever, Ivar 273 Gilder, George 287 Gilfillan, Colum 127 Gladstone, William Ewart 246 Glaeser, Edward 92 Glasgow University 22, 25 Glass-Steagall Act 287 global warming 271–6 Glorious Revolution (England) 243 Gobi desert 92 Goddard, Robert 138 Godkin, Ed 250 Goethe, Charles 202 Goethe, Johann Wolfgang von 248 Goldberg, Jonah 252; Liberal Fascism 199, 251 Goldman Sachs 3 Goldsmith, Sir Edward 211 Goodenough, Oliver 36 Google 120, 130, 132, 188 Gore, A1205, 211, 273, 274 Gosling, Raymond 121 Gottlieb, Anthony 41 Gottlieb, Richard 11 Gould, Stephen Jay 38, 53, 69 government: commerce and freedom 243–4; counterrevolution of 247–50; definition 236; free trade and free thinking 244–6; as God 254–5; and the Levellers 241–2; liberal fascism 250–2; libertarian revival 252–3; prison system 237–8; and protection rackets 238–41; and the wild west 235–6 Grant, Madison 202; The Passing of the Great Race 200–1 Graur, Dan 71, 72 Gray, Asa 44; Descent of Man 44–5 Gray, Elisha 119 Great Depression 105, 125, 318 Great Recession (2008–09) 97, 297 Greece 259 Green, David 115 Green, Paul 226 Green Revolution 208, 210 Greenblatt, Stephen 9, 11n Greenhalgh, Susan 212; Just One Child 210–11 Greenspan Put 289 Gregory, Ryan 71 Gregory VII, Pope 239 Gresham’s Law 279 Guardian (newspaper) 53 Gulf War 298 Gutenberg, Johannes 220 Hadiths 262 Haeckel, Ernst 197, 198 Hahnemann, Samuel 271 Haig, David 57 Hailey, Malcolm, Lord 231 Hailo 109 Haiti 207 Hamel, Gary 224 Hamilton, Alexander 244 Hannan, Daniel 35, 242, 315 Hannauer, Nick 107 Hansen, Alvin 105 Hanson, Earl Parker, New Worlds Emerging 209 Harford, Tim, Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure 127, 255 Harriman, E.H. 200 Harris, Judith Rich 155–6, 158–65, 169; The Nurture Assumption 160–1 Harris, Sam 147, 148, 149–50, 151, 152 Harvard Business Review 224 Harvard University 9, 28, 57, 155, 159, 300 Hayek, Friedrich 35, 102, 128, 133, 230, 232, 243; The Constitution of Liberty 300; The Road to Serfdom 253 Haynes, John Dylan 146–7 Hazlett, Tom 223 Heidegger, Martin 201 Helsinki 211, 212 Henrich, Joe 89 Henry II 34 Henry VII 240 Henry the Navigator, Prince 134 Heraclius 262 Heritage Foundation 241 Higgs, Robert 240 Hill, P.J. 235–6 Hines, Melissa 169 Hitler, Adolf 198, 201, 217, 251, 252, 253; Mein Kampf 252 Hobbes, Thomas 8, 12, 197–8, 243 Holdren, John 208 Holland 142 Holland, Tom, In the Shadow of the Sword 261–2 Holocaust 214 Hong Kong 31, 92, 97, 101, 190, 191, 233–4 Hood, Bruce 148; The Self Illusion 145 Horgan, John 60 Hortlund, Per 284 ‘How Aid Underwrites Repression in Ethiopia’ (2010) 232 Howard, John 273 Hu Yaobang 212 Human Genome Project 64 Human Rights Watch 232 Hume, David 20, 21–2, 40–1, 54, 276; Concerning Natural Religion 39–40; Natural History of Religion 257 Humphrey, Nick 144, 154 Hussein, Saddam 298 Hutcheson, Francis 22, 25 Hutchinson, Allan 33 Hutton, James 17 Huxley, Aldous, Brave New World 167 Huxley, Julian 205, 211 Hyderabad 181 Ibsen, Henrik 249 Iceland 32 Iliad 87 Immigration Act (US, 1924) 201 Incas 86, 259 India 34, 87, 108, 125, 177–8, 181, 183, 196, 204, 206, 213, 214, 258, 259 Industrial (R)evolution 63, 104, 108,109–10, 135, 220, 248, 254–5, 277 Infoseek (search engine) 120 Intel 223 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 273–4 International Code of Conduct for Information Security 305 International Federation of Eugenics Organisations 202 International Monetary Fund (IMF) 286 International Telecommunications Union (ITU) 305 internet: balkanisation of the web 302–6; and bitcoin 308–12; and blockchains 306–9, 313–14; central committee of 305–6; complexity of 300–1; emergence of 299–300; individuals associated with 301–2; and politics 314–16 Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) 305–6 Iraq 32, 255 Ireland 213, 246 Irish Republican Army (IRA) 240 Islam 259, 260, 262–3 Islamabad 92 Islamic State 240 Israel, Paul 119 Italian city states 101 Italy 34, 247, 251 Ive, Sir Jonathan 319 Jablonka, Eva 56, 57 Jackson, Doug 309 Jacobs, Jane 92 Jagger, Bianca 211 Jainism 260 Japan, Japanese 32, 122, 125, 231, 232, 288 Jefferson, Thomas 15, 20, 114, 244 Jehovah 13, 276 Jerome, St 11 Jesus Christ 8, 9, 88, 257, 258, 263, 266 Jevons, William Stanley 63, 106 Jews 29, 142, 197, 202–3, 257 Jobs, Steve 119, 222 Johnson, Boris 166; The Churchill Factor: How One Man Made History 217 Johnson, Lyndon B. 206, 207, 289 Johnson, Steven Berlin 220; Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation 127 Jones, Judge John 49, 50, 51 Jonson, Ben 15 J.P.


pages: 222 words: 50,318

The Option of Urbanism: Investing in a New American Dream by Christopher B. Leinberger

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American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, asset allocation, big-box store, centre right, commoditize, credit crunch, David Brooks, desegregation, Donald Trump, drive until you qualify, edge city, full employment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jane Jacobs, knowledge economy, McMansion, mortgage tax deduction, new economy, New Urbanism, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, postindustrial economy, RAND corporation, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, reserve currency, Richard Florida, Seaside, Florida, the built environment, transit-oriented development, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight

Our Built Environment, EPA, January, 2001, 231-R-01-002. 28. R. Ewing and R. Cervero, “Travel and the Built Environment: A Synthesis,” Transportation Research Board Record no. 1780 (2001): 87–114. 29. Howard Frumkin, Lawrence Frank, and Richard Jackson, Urban Sprawl and Public Health: Designing, Planning, and Building for Healthy Communities (Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2004). 30. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis,” http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf. 31. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “2007 Draft U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report,” http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventory report07.html. 32. Ibid. 33. Lawrence Frank et al., “New Data for a New Era: A Summary of the SMARTRAQ Findings,” Smart Growth America, January 2007, http:// www.smartgrowthamerica.org/documents/SMARTRAQSummary_000 .pdf. 34.

The amount that Americans drive—measured as “vehicle miles traveled” (VMT)—increased by 226 percent between 1983 and 2001, despite population growth of just twenty-two percent during that time period.26 74 | THE OPTION OF URBANISM The geometric growth in VMT is partially attributable to changing demographics and increased wealth, but sixty-four percent of the growth is attributable to land-use changes that have increased trip distances and increased the number of trips made.27 Many studies have documented that drivable sub-urbanism is linked to longer trips and more miles driven.28 Although tailpipe cleanups have been successful in improving air quality, the increase in driving has offset those gains,29 and many metropolitan areas continue to struggle with meeting the air quality standards set in the Clean Air Act. C L I M AT E C H A N G E. Virtually no reasonable person now doubts that the climate is warming and, backed up by overwhelming scientific evidence from the 2007 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, most people understand that climate change is occurring largely due to the actions of humans (ninety percent probability).30 The major cause is the release of carbon dioxide and other gases that trap heat, causing the greenhouse effect. The United States is the largest producer of greenhouse gases on the planet, accounting for twenty-five percent of total emissions. Transportation, primarily the burning of gasoline by cars and trucks, accounts for thirty-three percent of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.31 Commercial (office and retail) and residential buildings are responsible for thirty-nine percent of greenhouse gas emissions in this country; the majority of these emissions result from electricity generation through coal-burning power plants.


pages: 386 words: 91,913

The Elements of Power: Gadgets, Guns, and the Struggle for a Sustainable Future in the Rare Metal Age by David S. Abraham

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3D printing, Airbus A320, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, commoditize, Deng Xiaoping, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, glass ceiling, global supply chain, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, reshoring, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, telemarketer, Tesla Model S, thinkpad, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, Y2K

“Elering: Electricity Consumption and Production in Estonia,” accessed December 4, 2014, elering.ee/electricity-consumption-and-production-in-estonia-2/. 3. American Physical Society, “Energy Critical Elements,” accessed December 4, 2014, www.aps.org/policy/reports/popa-reports/upload/elementsreport.pdf. 4. U.S. Department of Energy, Critical Materials Strategy, 2011, energy.gov/sites/prod/files/DOE_CMS2011_FINAL_Full.pdf; Core Writing Team, “Climate Change Synthesis Report Summary For Policymakers,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, 2014, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_SPMcorr1.pdf. 5. If the world wants to maintain carbon emissions below 450 ppm then, according to the International Energy Agency, the world needs more than 15,000 TWh, to be produced from alternative sources. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/International Energy Agency, “Renewable Energy Outlook, Basking in the Sun?”

Some rare metals themselves should also be considered green because many of them, like niobium, drastically reduce the amount of other metals that are used, meaning a smaller overall carbon dioxide (CO2) footprint. And as abhorrent as this may sound to some environmentalists, green goals require increased mining and more processing of rare metals. Mining is not antithetical to a green economy; it’s a necessity. And studies show we are going to need more of them—a lot more of them—to curb global warming. According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, renewables must supply about 50 percent of the world’s energy by 2050, thereby reducing the importance of fossil fuels in our energy mix. The study concludes that the world must nearly eliminate fossil fuel use by 2100. The road to change is not simply about switching to new technologies. It’s about ensuring rare metal resources. In a joint study in 2011, the Materials Research Society and the American Physical Society issued a warning that should be of grave concern.

., 30 Tungsten: Allied actions on, in WWII, 239n28 China, production in, 32, 205, 240n33, 289n16 conflict tungsten, 108, 109 Congo production, 108 export quota, 240n34 in glass, 217 importance, xi, 11 in lighting, 151 patents, 211 production locations, 48 shortage fears, 207, 219 sources of, 32, 48, 93, 108, 205, 240n24, 240n33, 289n16 wartime use of, 29, 30, 239n28 in weaponry, 29, 161–62, 167 Tunna, Nigel, 96 Twitter, 126 Uganda, cassiterites from, 111 Umicore, 191 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 135 United States: aluminum can recycling, 285n34 Bureau of Mines closure, 222 China, trade case against, 36 on China’s materials exports, 203 cobalt supplies, 19 commodity stockpiles, 291n36 conflict materials, actions on, 110–11 Japan, embargo against, 30 rare metal security strategy, 206, 208–12 reshoring, 212 tungsten, wartime actions on, 162, 239n28. See also Military (U.S.)


pages: 386 words: 91,913

The Elements of Power: Gadgets, Guns, and the Struggle for a Sustainable Future in the Rare Metal Age by David S. Abraham

3D printing, Airbus A320, carbon footprint, clean water, cleantech, commoditize, Deng Xiaoping, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, glass ceiling, global supply chain, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, new economy, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, reshoring, Robert Metcalfe, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, South China Sea, Steve Ballmer, Steve Jobs, telemarketer, Tesla Model S, thinkpad, upwardly mobile, uranium enrichment, Y2K

“Elering: Electricity Consumption and Production in Estonia,” accessed December 4, 2014, elering.ee/electricity-consumption-and-production-in-estonia-2/. 3. American Physical Society, “Energy Critical Elements,” accessed December 4, 2014, www.aps.org/policy/reports/popa-reports/upload/elementsreport.pdf. 4. U.S. Department of Energy, Critical Materials Strategy, 2011, energy.gov/sites/prod/files/DOE_CMS2011_FINAL_Full.pdf; Core Writing Team, “Climate Change Synthesis Report Summary For Policymakers,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, 2014, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_SPMcorr1.pdf. 5. If the world wants to maintain carbon emissions below 450 ppm then, according to the International Energy Agency, the world needs more than 15,000 TWh, to be produced from alternative sources. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/International Energy Agency, “Renewable Energy Outlook, Basking in the Sun?”

Some rare metals themselves should also be considered green because many of them, like niobium, drastically reduce the amount of other metals that are used, meaning a smaller overall carbon dioxide (CO2) footprint. And as abhorrent as this may sound to some environmentalists, green goals require increased mining and more processing of rare metals. Mining is not antithetical to a green economy; it’s a necessity. And studies show we are going to need more of them—a lot more of them—to curb global warming. According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, renewables must supply about 50 percent of the world’s energy by 2050, thereby reducing the importance of fossil fuels in our energy mix. The study concludes that the world must nearly eliminate fossil fuel use by 2100. The road to change is not simply about switching to new technologies. It’s about ensuring rare metal resources. In a joint study in 2011, the Materials Research Society and the American Physical Society issued a warning that should be of grave concern.

., 30 Tungsten: Allied actions on, in WWII, 239n28 China, production in, 32, 205, 240n33, 289n16 conflict tungsten, 108, 109 Congo production, 108 export quota, 240n34 in glass, 217 importance, xi, 11 in lighting, 151 patents, 211 production locations, 48 shortage fears, 207, 219 sources of, 32, 48, 93, 108, 205, 240n24, 240n33, 289n16 wartime use of, 29, 30, 239n28 in weaponry, 29, 161–62, 167 Tunna, Nigel, 96 Twitter, 126 Uganda, cassiterites from, 111 Umicore, 191 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 135 United States: aluminum can recycling, 285n34 Bureau of Mines closure, 222 China, trade case against, 36 on China’s materials exports, 203 cobalt supplies, 19 commodity stockpiles, 291n36 conflict materials, actions on, 110–11 Japan, embargo against, 30 rare metal security strategy, 206, 208–12 reshoring, 212 tungsten, wartime actions on, 162, 239n28. See also Military (U.S.)


pages: 692 words: 167,950

The Ripple Effect: The Fate of Fresh Water in the Twenty-First Century by Alex Prud'Homme

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2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, American Society of Civil Engineers: Report Card, big-box store, bilateral investment treaty, carbon footprint, Chance favours the prepared mind, clean water, commoditize, corporate raider, Deep Water Horizon, en.wikipedia.org, Exxon Valdez, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, John Snow's cholera map, Louis Pasteur, mass immigration, megacity, oil shale / tar sands, peak oil, renewable energy credits, Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, urban sprawl, William Langewiesche

Climatologists predict that drought will increase in many of the world’s most densely populated regions this century, and that global warming is the second major trend that will significantly impact water supplies. IN HOT WATER In 2008, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former vice president Al Gore, identified areas of the world at risk from drought. As expected, the report identified parts of the developing world, especially equatorial Asia and Africa, as especially vulnerable to prolonged aridity. The 1984–85 drought in the Horn of Africa, the East African peninsula that encompasses Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, led to 750,000 deaths. But the IPCC also pointed to the American South and West as prime targets for increased heat and water stress. In 1998, according to a NASA study, losses from a severe drought and heat wave that swept from Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the Carolinas caused some $40 billion in damage and killed two hundred people, surpassing the losses of the San Francisco earthquake in 1989, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and the Mississippi River floods in 1993.

., 337 Huntington’s disease, 42 Huron, Lake, 196 hurricanes: floods and, 208, 209–12, 228 see also specific hurricanes Hussein, Saddam, 197 hydrocarbons, 16 hydroelectric power, 5, 155, 179, 182, 183, 185, 244, 278, 279, 354 hydrofluorocarbons, 93–94 hydrofracking, 281–87 air pollution from, 286 health problems tied to, 282, 284–85 toxic chemicals used in, 286–87 as unregulated, 283, 286, 350 water contamination from, 282, 284, 285, 286 water use by, 284 hydrogen peroxide, 111 hydrologic cycle, 5 global warming and, 129 hypersalinity, 154 hypoxia, 59, 79, 88, 95 see also dead zones, aquatic ibuprofen, 68, 69 Idaho, 184, 318 water use in, 125 IDE Technologies, 334 Iliamna, Alaska, 314, 315 Iliamna, Lake, 309, 314, 317 Iliamna Development Corporation, 308 Illinois, 50, 219, 221 Imjin River, 197 Immelt, Jeffrey, 39 immune response, 76, 86, 351 Imperial Irrigation District, 240 imposex, 75 incineration, of health-care waste, 68 Independent (UK), 272 Independent Oil and Gas Association of New York, 285 India, 84, 110, 199, 347 water pollution in, 351 water scarcity and, 130, 197, 198, 353 Indiana, 50 Indian Point nuclear plant, 280–81 indicator species, 73–74, 245 Indonesia, 274, 354 Indus River Commission, 199 Industrial Age, 50 industry: pollution from, 32–40, 77, 119, 267 wasteful water practices of, 267 Inhofe, James, 104–5 Iniskin Bay, 314 “In Praise of Tap Water” (New York Times), 294 integrators, 81–83 Intel, 338–42, 353 green technology as priority of, 340 water conservation at, 340 see also computer chip manufacturing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 128, 130 Interior Department, US, 64, 79, 170, 175, 182 International Alert, 198 International Bottled Water Association, 11, 292 International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, 275 International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, 271 International Monetary Fund, 267 intersex: agricultural runoff and, 76 estrogen and, 76–77, 351 in fish, 70, 75–78, 85, 345, 351 in frogs, 5 in humans, 77–78 invasive species, 64, 129, 192, 203 Inyo Mountains, 151 Ionics, 333 Iowa, 219, 221 Iowa River, 220 Iraq, 196 US invasion of, 197 irrigated agriculture, 125–26, 127, 139, 152, 153–54, 174, 193, 239–40, 242–43, 244, 246–48, 249–52, 303, 304, 341–42, 352, 355 efficient technologies for, 251, 347 groundwater used by, 258, 259, 267, 279 low-value vs. high-value crops in, 240, 251, 355 recycled wastewater in, 326 subsidized water costs in, 240, 250, 345 Israel, 110, 199, 334 Italy, 69–70, 75, 212 Jackson, Lisa P., 92, 102–5, 138, 323, 351 Jadwin, Edgar, 219 Jamaica Bay, 54 James Bay, 141 James River, 354–55 Japan, 33, 42, 93 Jeffery, Kim, 297–98, 299, 302, 303–4 Jenkins, Bruce, 311–12 Jennings, Bill, 246 Jidda, Saudi Arabia, 331 John F.

While Hirsch agrees the planet is warming, he says, “Scientific evidence about the specific ways it is changing our water resources is still very unclear.” The 2008 IPCC report highlighted concerns about equatorial regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where climate change is adding to desertification. The UN has warned that basins of the Nile, Niger, Volta, and Zambezi Rivers are all potential flashpoints for violence over water supplies. Hydrologists, academics, and diplomats worry that in coming years water disputes could devolve into wars among historical rivals—between China and India, or India and Pakistan, over the Himalayan glaciers, for example; or between Turkey, Syria, and Kurdistan over the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers; or between Egypt and its neighbors over control of the Nile. The IPCC report also noted the diminishing snowpack of the Sierra Nevada in northeastern California, and the overuse of the Colorado River.


pages: 542 words: 132,010

The Science of Fear: How the Culture of Fear Manipulates Your Brain by Daniel Gardner

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Atul Gawande, availability heuristic, Black Swan, Cass Sunstein, citizen journalism, cognitive bias, cognitive dissonance, Columbine, correlation does not imply causation, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, David Brooks, Doomsday Clock, feminist movement, haute couture, hindsight bias, illegal immigration, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), mandatory minimum, medical residency, Mikhail Gorbachev, millennium bug, moral panic, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, placebo effect, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, Stephen Hawking, Steven Levy, Steven Pinker, the scientific method, Tunguska event, uranium enrichment, Y2K, young professional

Is the earth getting warmer and is human activity the cause? In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) answered that question with this statement: “The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate.” In 2001, the IPCC said, “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” And in 2007, with further research pointing to the same conclusion, the IPCC reported that “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. ” The phrase “very likely” is about as strong as science gets. In the 2007 IPCC report, it was defined as meaning a 95 percent chance that it is so.

It was “five minutes to midnight,” they said. A key reason for this warning was the fact that, according to the statement of the board of directors, “global warming poses a dire threat to human civilization that is second only to nuclear weapons.” Thanks to the prestige of the scientists involved, this statement garnered headlines around the world. But it was politics, not science. According to the IPCC, there are still enormous uncertainties about the consequences of climate change, and it is very possible those consequences will be nothing like the civilizational crisis claimed by Stephen Hawking and his colleagues. Even the most basic consequences—things that activists typically assume will happen—are uncertain. The report says it is “likely” that drought will increase—meaning greater than a 66 percent chance.

The report also states that it’s “likely” that sea levels will rise, but scientists debate how high they will go. We don’t hear about this uncertainty from activists, though. In a magazine ad from the World Wildlife Fund, a boy in a baseball uniform stands with his bat ready, waiting for the pitch, paying no attention to the fact that he is submerged in water up to his shoulders. “Ignoring global warming won’t make it go away,” says the ad. It’s an arresting image, but the IPCC estimates that, under a variety of scenarios, climate change will cause the oceans to rise somewhere between seven and twenty-three inches. That is serious, but it doesn’t lend itself to public campaigning, because a picture of someone shin-deep in water isn’t going to catch the attention of a bored woman flipping through a magazine in her dentist’s waiting room. A boy oblivious to the fact he is about to drown may be misleading, but it certainly gets the job done.


pages: 351 words: 93,982

Leading From the Emerging Future: From Ego-System to Eco-System Economies by Otto Scharmer, Katrin Kaufer

Affordable Care Act / Obamacare, agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Asian financial crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collapse of Lehman Brothers, colonial rule, Community Supported Agriculture, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, dematerialisation, Deng Xiaoping, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, Fractional reserve banking, global supply chain, happiness index / gross national happiness, high net worth, housing crisis, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Joseph Schumpeter, market bubble, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, Mohammed Bouazizi, mutually assured destruction, Naomi Klein, new economy, offshore financial centre, peak oil, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, Silicon Valley, smart grid, Steve Jobs, technology bubble, The Spirit Level, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, Washington Consensus, working poor, Zipcar

David Pimentel, “Soil Erosion: A Food and Environmental Threat,” Environment, Development, and Sustainability 8, no. 1 (2006): 119–37. 17. UNEP, “At a Glance: Millennium Issues”; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Land Degradation Assessment, www.fao.org/nr/land/degradation/en/ (accessed December 9, 2012). 18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis,” IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007, www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-direct-observations.html (accessed December 9, 2012). 19. World Bank, “New Report Examines Risks of 4 Degree Hotter World by End of Century,” November 18, 2012, www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/11/18/new-report-examines-risks-of-degree-hotter-world-by-end-of-century (accessed December 19, 2012). 20.


pages: 400 words: 129,320

The Way We Eat: Why Our Food Choices Matter by Peter Singer, Jim Mason

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agricultural Revolution, air freight, clean water, collective bargaining, dumpster diving, food miles, Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, means of production, rent control, urban sprawl, Whole Earth Review

., and Paul Gunderson, National Farm Medicine Center, in discussion with Brian Halweil; Karen Pylka and Paul Gunderson, "An Epidemiologic Study of Suicide Among Farmers and Its Clinical Implications," Marshfield Clinical Bulletin, vol. 26, 1992, pp. 31-58. I owe these references to Brian Halweil, Eat Here, pp. 69-70. 23 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report: Summary for Policymakers: The Science of Climate Change. IPCC Working Group I, p. 10. Available at: www.ipcc.ch. On the hottest years, see Traci Watson, "2004 is 4th hottest year for world since 1861, U.N. report says," USA Today, December 15, 2004, www.usatoday.com/weather/ news/2004-12-15-hot-year-x.htm 24 Richard Posner, Catastrophe: Risk and Response, Oxford University Press, New York, 2004. 25 For further discussion of climate change as an ethical issue, see Peter Singer, One World, Yale University Press, 2002, chapter 2. 26 John Hendrickson, "Energy use in the U.S.

PDF. 30 Alison Smith, et al, The Validity of Food Miles as an Indicator of Sustainable Development, ED50254, Issue 7, July 2005, p.67; A. Carlsson , Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Life-Cycle of Carrots and Tomatoes: methods, data and results from a study of the types and amounts of carrots and tomatoes consumed in Sweden, IMES/EESS Report no. 24, Department of Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Lund University, Sweden, March 1997; cited in Tara Garnett, Wise Moves, Transport 2000, pp. 76, 82-4. 31 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Cambridge University Press, 1999; J. Whitelegg and N. Williams, The Plane Truth: aviation and the environment, Transport 2000 and Ashden Trust, London, 2001; we owe these references to Tara Garnett, Wise Moves, Transport 2000, p. 23. 32 J. Pretty and A. Ball, "Agricultural Influences on Carbon Emissions and Sequestration: A Review of Evidence and the Emerging Trading Options," Centre for Environment and Society Occasional Paper 2001-03, University of Essex, 2001. 33 Andy Jones, Eating Oil, Sustain & Elm Farm Research Centre, London, 2001, Case Study 2. www.sustainweb.org/chain-fm-eat.asp. 34 Alison Smith, et al, The Validity of Food Miles as an Indicator of Sustainable Development, ED50254, Issue 7, July 200S, p. 74. 35 Email from Carlo Petrini to Brian Halweil, cited in Brian Halweil, Eat Here, p. 161.


pages: 526 words: 155,174

Sixty Days and Counting by Kim Stanley Robinson

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dumpster diving, energy security, full employment, Golden Gate Park, hiring and firing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), McMansion, megacity, mutually assured destruction, off grid, place-making, Ralph Waldo Emerson, RFID, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, Saturday Night Live, urban decay, Works Progress Administration

Because they needed the World Bank executing Phil’s program; in the war of the agencies, now fully engaged, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund were among the most mulish of their passive-aggressive opponents. Phil had the power to hire and fire the upper echelons in both agencies, which was good leverage, but it would be better to do something less drastic, to keep the midlevels from shattering. This meeting with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN organization, might be a good venue for exerting some pressure. The IPCC had spent many years advocating action on the climate front, and all the while they had been flatly ignored by the World Bank. If there was now a face-off, a great reckoning in a little room, then it could get interesting. But the meeting, held across the street in the World Bank’s headquarters, was a disappointment. These two groups came from such different world-views that it was only an illusion they were speaking the same language; for the most part they used different vocabularies, and when by chance they used the same words, they meant different things by them.

Calmness at speed was his signature style, as with certain surfing stars. And even now he persisted with that style, or tried to; but the workload was so huge it was hard to keep the calmness along with the pace. They were far past the time when he and Charlie were able to chat about things like they used to. Now their phone conversations went something like: “Charlie it’s Roy have you met with IPCC?” “No, we’re both scheduled to meet with the World Bank on Friday.” “Can you meet them and the Bank team at six today instead?” “I was going to go home at five.” “Six then?” “Well if you think—” “Good okay more soon bye.” “Bye.”—said to the empty connection. Charlie stared at his cell phone and cursed. He cursed Roy, Phil, Congress, the World Bank, the Republican Party, the world, and the universe.

These two groups came from such different world-views that it was only an illusion they were speaking the same language; for the most part they used different vocabularies, and when by chance they used the same words, they meant different things by them. They were aware at some level of this underlying conflict, but could not address it; and so everyone was tense, with old grievances unsayable and yet fully present. The World Bank guys said something about nothing getting cheaper than oil for the next fifty years, ignoring what the IPCC guys had just finished saying about the devastating effects fifty more years of oil burning would have. They had not heard that, apparently. They defended having invested 94 percent of the World Bank’s energy investments in oil exploration as necessary, given the world’s dependence on oil—apparently unaware of the circular aspect of their argument. And, being economists, they were still exteriorizing costs without even noticing it or acknowledging such exteriorization had been conclusively demonstrated to falsify accounts of profit and loss.


pages: 651 words: 161,270

Global Spin: The Corporate Assault on Environmentalism by Sharon Beder

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American Legislative Exchange Council, battle of ideas, business climate, centre right, clean water, corporate governance, Exxon Valdez, Gary Taubes, global village, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, laissez-faire capitalism, oil shale / tar sands, old-boy network, price mechanism, profit maximization, Ralph Nader, RAND corporation, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, telemarketer, The Bell Curve by Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, urban planning

The documents stated that victory would be achieved when climate change became a non-issue and those promoting the Kyoto Treaty using existing science appeared “to be out of touch with reality”.19 This was just the latest phase in a corporate-funded campaign to discredit global warming predictions and undermine the political will necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In September 1995 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which involves 2,500 climate scientists, issued a landmark statement representing a level of consensus that had not previously been achieved on the issue of global warming. The panel stated that “the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate” and that climatic instability was likely to cause “widespread economic, social and environmental dislocation over the next century”.20 Yet this level of consensus amongst the world’s climate scientists is not widely known, because the corporations that would be affected by measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have waged a deceptive campaign to confuse the public and policy-makers on the issue.

In any case, “No one should worry about a modest warming, should it occur,” as it is likely to result in beneficial impacts.51 The CEI, which is “dedicated to the principles of free enterprise and limited government” and claims to have “a team of nearly 40 policy experts,” notes on its web pages that it is actively involved in the policy debate: “We reach out to the public and the media to ensure our ideas are heard, work with policy makers to ensure that they are implemented and, when necessary, take our arguments to court to ensure the law is upheld.”52 CEI is an active member of the Cooler Heads Coalition, which was founded by the corporate front group Consumer Alert: “The Cooler Heads Coalition focuses on the consumer impact of global warming policies that would drastically restrict energy use and raise costs for consumers.”53 It distributes a bi-weekly newsletter, published by CEI. The Heartland Institute’s Instant Expert Guide to Global Warming argues that “Most scientists do not believe human activities threaten to disrupt the Earth’s climate” and that “The most reliable temperature data show no global warming trend”. Additionally it argues that the IPCC has been unable to prove human activities cause global warming and that “A modest amount of global warming, should it occur, would be beneficial to the natural world and to human civilization.”54 The Cato Institute employs Patrick Michaels as a senior fellow, and he writes for the Institute’s Policy Analysis papers on global warming. For example, he argued in the journal that since the Kyoto Protocol would only achieve a tiny reduction in global warming over the next 50 years and would cost the US 2.3 percent of GDP per year, it shouldn’t be agreed to: “Even global warming alarmists in the scientific establishment now say that the Kyoto Protocol will have no discernible impact on global climate”.55 Think-tanks in other parts of the world are also seeking to cast doubt upon global warming predictions.

He complains that ABC reporting therefore “represents a pernicious mixture of science and environmentalism”.58 However, the ABC has given air time to IPA Senior Fellow Brian Tucker, previously chief of the CSIRO division of atmospheric research. In 1996, in a talk on the ABC’s Ockham’s Razor, he stated that “unchallenged climatic disaster hyperbole has induced something akin to a panic reaction from policy makers, both national and international”.59 In his talk he ignored the scientific consensus represented by the IPCC 1995 statement, and argued that global warming predictions are politically and emotionally generated: There is little evidence to support the notion of net deleterious climate change despite recent Cassandra-like trepidation in the Australian Medical Association and exaggerations from Greenpeace. Why then has so much alarm been generated? The answer is complicated. In my opinion, it is due partly to the use and abuse of science to foment fear by those seeking to support ideological positions, and partly due to the negative and fearful perspective that seems to characterize some environmental prejudices.


pages: 258 words: 83,303

Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization by Jeff Rubin

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air freight, banking crisis, big-box store, BRICs, carbon footprint, collateralized debt obligation, collective bargaining, creative destruction, credit crunch, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, decarbonisation, energy security, food miles, hydrogen economy, illegal immigration, immigration reform, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, James Watt: steam engine, Just-in-time delivery, market clearing, megacity, North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, profit maximization, reserve currency, South Sea Bubble, the market place, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, trade liberalization, zero-sum game

Unfortunately, that kind of world is looking more likely by the day. Total global emissions have risen by a cumulative 25 percent since the beginning of the decade. For all the carbon abatement in the developed world, there is certainly no evidence of any emission slowdown on the global stage. In fact, emissions are rising faster than the worst-case scenario examined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Despite the fact that the world is quickly waking up to the problem, emissions in the first decade of the millennium are growing four times faster than they did in the 1990s. If there is any good news, it is that only a small fraction of that increase came from the rich countries of the OECD—the countries that cast the seeds of this problem more than 200 years ago. In fact, emissions from the most advanced economies in the world have grown by only 5 percent between 2000 and 2007, one-tenth of the 50 percent increase seen in the developing world.

In addition to the difficulties posed by the sheer scale of the infrastructure required and the fact that the technology is untested at anything like the scale required to make a difference, there is the fact that the process is energy-intensive and would increase a plant’s fuel requirements by as much as 40 percent, taking back the efficiency gains of the past few decades and raising costs by as much as 90 percent (www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_whole-report.pdf). p. 139: The most common way of producing hydrogen is by processing natural gas, which makes the fuel a pretty inappropriate response to the problems of both resource depletion and climate change. See “The Car of the Perpetual Future,” by Phil Wrigglesworth, in the September 4, 2008, edition of The Economist. (www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?


pages: 459 words: 103,153

Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure by Tim Harford

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Andrew Wiles, banking crisis, Basel III, Berlin Wall, Bernie Madoff, Black Swan, car-free, carbon footprint, Cass Sunstein, charter city, Clayton Christensen, clean water, cloud computing, cognitive dissonance, complexity theory, corporate governance, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cuban missile crisis, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, Dava Sobel, Deep Water Horizon, Deng Xiaoping, double entry bookkeeping, Edmond Halley, en.wikipedia.org, Erik Brynjolfsson, experimental subject, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Fermat's Last Theorem, Firefox, food miles, Gerolamo Cardano, global supply chain, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, Jarndyce and Jarndyce, John Harrison: Longitude, knowledge worker, loose coupling, Martin Wolf, mass immigration, Menlo Park, Mikhail Gorbachev, mutually assured destruction, Netflix Prize, New Urbanism, Nick Leeson, PageRank, Piper Alpha, profit motive, Richard Florida, Richard Thaler, rolodex, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, South China Sea, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, the market place, The Wisdom of Crowds, too big to fail, trade route, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, web application, X Prize, zero-sum game

fta=y&pagewanted=all; and a press release from the Taiwan International Orchid Show 2010, http://www.tios.com.tw/tios_test/eng/5_2taiwan.php 148 Silicon Valley venture capitalists need lose little sleep: Jim Pickard, ‘Venture capital fund turned £74m into £5m’, Financial Times, 9 March 2010, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/76859892-2ae1-11df-886b-00144feabdc0.html; and Josh Lerner’s opening statement in The Economist debate on Industrial Policy: http://www.econo-mist.com/debate/overview/177/Industrial%20policy 149 The Holy Roman Emperor himself: Sebastian Mallaby, ‘The politically incorrect guide to ending poverty’, The Atlantic, July/August 2010, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/07/the-politically-incorrect-guide-to-ending-poverty/8134/1/; Wikipedia; Simon Heffer, ‘Lübeck: the town that said no to Hitler’, Daily Telegraph, 2 June 2009, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/city-breaks/5428909/Lübeck-The-town-that-said-no-to-Hitler.html 151 Romer has pushed the charter city concept: Paul Romer, ‘For richer, for poorer’, Prospect, issue 167, 27 January 2010. 151 Before turning down the job of Chief Economist of the World Bank: David Warsh, ‘Learning by doing’, Economic Principals, 19 July 2009, http://www.economicprincipals.com/issues/2009.07.19/571.html 151 He argues that foreign ownership: author interview with Paul Romer, 20 September 2010. 152 It’s a free economic zone: Sean Campbell, ‘Metropolis from scratch’, Next American City, issue 8, April 2005, http://americancity.org/magazine/issue/i08/; and Greg Lindsay, ‘Cisco’s big bet on New Songdo: creating cities from scratch’, Fast Company, 1 February 2010, http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/142/the-new-new-urbanism.html 5 Climate change or: Changing the rules for success 154 ‘I think we’re going to find’: Prince Charles, interview with the BBC, October 2005, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4382264.stm 154 ‘Evolution is cleverer than you are’: obituary: Professor Leslie Orgel, The Times, 6 December 2007, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/obituaries/article3006557.ece 154 A dazzling lecturer at London’s Royal Insttution: Gabrielle Walker & Sir David King, The Hot Topic (Bloomsbury, 2008), pp. 14–18; Wikipedia entry on John Tyndall, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Tyndall; & James Rodger Fleming, Historical Perspectives on Climate Change (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 68–71. 155 Earth’s atmosphere contains traces of other gases: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, Table 6.1, http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/221.htm#tab61 156 ‘Comparing a single atom of oxygen’: cited in Fleming, Historical Perspectives, pp. 70–1. 156 Richard Lindzen, a contrarian meteorologist: ‘350 science’ at 350.org http://www.350.org/about/science; and ‘Top climate scientists share their outlook’, FT Magazine, 20 November 2009. 158 But that is what has just happened to Geoff: Geoff Mason is fictional.


pages: 390 words: 109,870

Radicals Chasing Utopia: Inside the Rogue Movements Trying to Change the World by Jamie Bartlett

Andrew Keen, back-to-the-land, Bernie Sanders, bitcoin, blockchain, blue-collar work, brain emulation, centre right, clean water, cryptocurrency, Donald Trump, drone strike, Elon Musk, energy security, ethereum blockchain, failed state, gig economy, hydraulic fracturing, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jaron Lanier, job automation, John Markoff, Joseph Schumpeter, life extension, Occupy movement, off grid, Peter Thiel, post-industrial society, postnationalism / post nation state, precariat, QR code, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Rosa Parks, Satoshi Nakamoto, self-driving car, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart contracts, stem cell, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Steven Pinker, technoutopianism

See William Powers, Hamlet’s BlackBerry (HarperCollins, 2010); Joseph Schumpeter, ‘Too much information: How to cope with data overload’, Economist, 30 June 2011; ‘Self harm, suicide and risk: helping people who self-harm’, Royal College of Psychiatrists College Report CR158, June 2010, http://www.rcpsych.ac.uk/files/pdfversion/cr158.pdf. 38. Monika Alleweldt, ‘The healing biotopes plan: A plan for the healing of humankind and the earth’, https://www.tamera.org/basic-thoughts/the-healing-biotopes-plan/. Chapter 7 1. ‘Climate change 2013: The physical science basis’, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University, 2013, http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/. 2. In 2014 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its Fifth Assessment Report, a sort of summary of the scientific consensus on the subject, written collectively by more than 800 authors. It concluded that it’s 95 to 100 per cent likely that temperatures are rising, and it’s us humans doing it. While that will result in some benefits in some areas, overall the net effects will be strongly negative, with significant costs associated: ‘Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.’ 3.

While that will result in some benefits in some areas, overall the net effects will be strongly negative, with significant costs associated: ‘Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.’ 3. ‘Top UNHCR official warns about displacement from climate change’, UNHCR, December 2008, http://www.unhcr.org/493e9bd94.html; Justin Gillis, ‘U.N. climate panel endorses ceiling on global emissions’, New York Times, 27 September 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/28/science/global-climate-change-report.html?_r=0. Thomas Stocker, the co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, called climate change the greatest challenge of our time. 4. Cited in Steve Hilton, More Human (WH Allen, 2015), pp. 360–2. 5. ‘Divestment commitments’, Fossil Free, September 2016, http://gofossilfree.org/commitments/; ‘Global trends in renewable energy investment 2016’, Frankfurt School FS-UNEP Collaborating Centre for Climate & Sustainable Energy Finance (2016), p. 12, http://fs-unep-centre.org/sites/default/files/publications/globaltrendsinrenewableenergyinvestment2016lowres_0.pdf; ‘Record fall in global coal consumption driven by low oil price’, Daily Telegraph, 8 June 2016, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/08/record-fall-in-global-coal-consumption-driven-by-low-oil-price/; ‘Aggregate effect of the intended nationally determined contribution: an update’, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2 May 2016, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2016/cop22/eng/02.pdf. 6.


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The Stack: On Software and Sovereignty by Benjamin H. Bratton

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1960s counterculture, 3D printing, 4chan, Ada Lovelace, additive manufacturing, airport security, Alan Turing: On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem, algorithmic trading, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Web Services, augmented reality, autonomous vehicles, basic income, Benevolent Dictator For Life (BDFL), Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, bitcoin, blockchain, Buckminster Fuller, Burning Man, call centre, carbon footprint, carbon-based life, Cass Sunstein, Celebration, Florida, charter city, clean water, cloud computing, connected car, corporate governance, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, dark matter, David Graeber, deglobalization, dematerialisation, disintermediation, distributed generation, don't be evil, Douglas Engelbart, Douglas Engelbart, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, Eratosthenes, ethereum blockchain, facts on the ground, Flash crash, Frank Gehry, Frederick Winslow Taylor, future of work, Georg Cantor, gig economy, global supply chain, Google Earth, Google Glasses, Guggenheim Bilbao, High speed trading, Hyperloop, illegal immigration, industrial robot, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, Internet of things, invisible hand, Jacob Appelbaum, Jaron Lanier, John Markoff, Jony Ive, Julian Assange, Khan Academy, liberal capitalism, lifelogging, linked data, Mark Zuckerberg, market fundamentalism, Marshall McLuhan, Masdar, McMansion, means of production, megacity, megastructure, Menlo Park, Minecraft, Monroe Doctrine, Network effects, new economy, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, packet switching, PageRank, pattern recognition, peak oil, peer-to-peer, performance metric, personalized medicine, Peter Eisenman, Peter Thiel, phenotype, Philip Mirowski, Pierre-Simon Laplace, place-making, planetary scale, RAND corporation, recommendation engine, reserve currency, RFID, Robert Bork, Sand Hill Road, self-driving car, semantic web, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley ideology, Slavoj Žižek, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, social graph, software studies, South China Sea, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spectrum auction, Startup school, statistical arbitrage, Steve Jobs, Steven Levy, Stewart Brand, Stuxnet, Superbowl ad, supply-chain management, supply-chain management software, TaskRabbit, the built environment, The Chicago School, the scientific method, Torches of Freedom, transaction costs, Turing complete, Turing machine, Turing test, universal basic income, urban planning, Vernor Vinge, Washington Consensus, web application, Westphalian system, WikiLeaks, working poor, Y Combinator

Another speculative alternative is Amy Balkin's Public Smog project, which seeks to transform discrete volumes of the air above into new public parks through the issuance of emissions offsets. Maneuvers and innovations such as these may seem odd, but they may also represent a critical path of design intervention into the unstable geopolitical architectures of the Earth layer of The Stack. Wilsonian internationalist mechanisms have had a far too limited ability to enact and enforce effective solutions, as Hu and Obama's flimsy “compromise” at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) talks in Copenhagen in 2008 exemplify. Planetary Skin's central bank for carbon could not rush in and save that particular day, as the essential problems of measuring a carbon economy (Who, how, when, where, why?) would require the most powerful national economies to disclose and share sovereign information about their industrial empires in ways that interested neither of the two most powerful prisoners in this particular dilemma.65 We are left knowing both that impending ecological calamity represents perhaps the most significant challenge to the very premise of governance that we face today, and also that the Westphalian-looped state is a dangerously awkward sovereign unit with which to assemble an effective quorum.

See also graphical user interface alegal, 355–356 ambient, 296, 368 animal-human, 276 Apps as, 236 chains of, 231, 249 city and nation-state, 155–156 in City layer, 154 decentralization, 156–157 decision-making, 32–33 defined, 220–222, 419n6 etymology, 419n6 forms of, 338 function of, 68, 124, 220–222 Google's, 34 governance, 325 hands as, 222–223, 226, 236–239 human-Stack, 219–221 individuation, 347–348 as layer, 228–230 machinic, 224–226, 230 mobile ecology of, 237–238 navigational, 12 nonhuman-Stack, 219 from object to sign to object, 222–228 perceived as real, 236 persuasive, 224, 430n65 placebo, 224 remote, 223 tangible, 168 as thresholds, 228 User in relation to, 12, 338 User versus owner, 345–346 of violence, 317, 325 visual/nonvisual, 13, 230–235, 341, 424n41 interfacial acceleration, 232–233 interfaciality Apps, 225, 297 chains of, 231, 233–234, 338–339 geopolitics of, 228 intrinsic/extrinsic, 223 through objects, 226–228 software, 167 urban, 223, 227–228 interfacial knowledge, 223–228 interfacial regimes centralizing and decentralizing, 232 of a Cloud Polis, 339–340 competitive, 229, 233 as cosmograms, 243 defined, 373 design, 232 flows and connections, 229 function of, 235 future, legality of, 176 political identity of the User, 260 present-day, 229 sovereign geographies, 243–250 Stack-to-come, 339–340 as totality machines, 229 interfacial security regimes, 345 interfacial symmetry and asymmetry, 342 interfacial totalities, 229–230, 233–235, 373 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 98–99 interiority/exteriority architectural, 23, 185, 220, 303, 323, 324 camp/enclave, 173–175, 311–312 exit to and from, 313, 315, 317, 371, 447n45 political borders marking, 324 reversibility of, 23, 312, 319, 341, 447–448n45, 452n69 of the social body, 22 International Communications Union (US), 143 International DOI Foundation, 207 International Map Project, 413n5 Internet addresses, 202, 207–211 addressing authority, 34, 196 addressing systems, 195–196, 205–206 alternative non-US, 35–36 balkanization, 135–136 the city compared, 445n37 Cloud services based in, 117 to come, 445n37 development of, 35 geography of, 361 governance, 143 growth of, 35 industrial, 202 interplanetary, 387n31 mapping, 398n25, 441n8 nonhuman User, 216, 278 slogan of, 426n46 space available, 117, 207–209 state controlled, 318–319 we know, 61–64, 445n37 worlds of, 445n37 Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), 34, 196 Internet of Things, 200–203, 207, 211, 216, 335, 339–340, 397n18 consortia, 413n5 ecology, 346 emergent, 413n5 Internet for Things, 203–204 Internet of haecceities, 211, 296, 361 Internet of Things Bill of Rights, 203 Internet service provider (ISP), 118, 208 intertextuality, 199–200 invention, 76–81, 360 invention of technology as invention of accident, 13, 17 inverse prostheticization, 275 Invisible Cities (Calvino), 147 iPhone, 168 IP-networked haecceities, 215 IPv4, 202, 207–208 IPv6, 207–210, 416n35 Iran, 154 Iraq, 401n45 irreductionism, 417m38 Ishii, Hiroshi, 226 ISIS, 246 Islam, 246, 321, 425n46 islands, technology free, 313, 315 Islands in the Net (Sterling), 400n42 iTACITUS Reality Filtering, 429n59 Italy, 309 Ito, Joi, 344 iTunes, 129 Ive, Jony, 129 Jameson, Fredric, 25, 27–28, 56–57, 178, 321, 330–331, 359, 427n47 Japanese internment camp, Poston, CA, 103 Japanese postal system, 194 Jefferson, Thomas, 109 Jeremijenko, Natalie, 276 Jerusalem, 324 Jobs, Steve, 129–130, 186 Johnny Dronehunter, 455nn80–81 Jonze, Spike, 277 Jules Verne (Serres), 1, 75 “junkspace,” 404n4 jurisdiction.

But these “emergencies” should be understood in both senses of the word: first as a crisis for which conventional understandings and instruments are inadequate and therefore require or justify unconventional measures, and second as moments of the emergence of something that was genuinely and qualitatively not there before. For ecojurisdictions, these emerge around both the production of energy and the effects of that production. We see this already in the divided constituencies and alliances represented at the IPCC climate talks. Large oil- and gas-producing countries share certain interests in ecological governance, or in its prevention, that cut across ideology and continental location, whereas countries whose landscapes serve as important carbon sinks also seek common cause, as do those whose circumstance puts them at shared risks for particular kinds of disaster. Shared ecogeographic interests can matter more than party lines when the transversal economic solidarities of energy production, and its consequences, come to outweigh cartographic, historical, or ethnic proximity.


pages: 437 words: 113,173

Age of Discovery: Navigating the Risks and Rewards of Our New Renaissance by Ian Goldin, Chris Kutarna

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2013 Report for America's Infrastructure - American Society of Civil Engineers - 19 March 2013, 3D printing, Airbnb, Albert Einstein, AltaVista, Asian financial crisis, asset-backed security, autonomous vehicles, banking crisis, barriers to entry, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, bioinformatics, bitcoin, Bonfire of the Vanities, clean water, collective bargaining, Colonization of Mars, Credit Default Swap, crowdsourcing, cryptocurrency, Dava Sobel, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Doha Development Round, double helix, Edward Snowden, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, epigenetics, experimental economics, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, financial innovation, full employment, Galaxy Zoo, global supply chain, Hyperloop, immigration reform, income inequality, indoor plumbing, industrial cluster, industrial robot, information retrieval, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, Internet of things, invention of the printing press, Isaac Newton, Islamic Golden Age, Khan Academy, Kickstarter, labour market flexibility, low cost carrier, low skilled workers, Lyft, Malacca Straits, mass immigration, megacity, Mikhail Gorbachev, moral hazard, Network effects, New Urbanism, non-tariff barriers, Occupy movement, On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres, open economy, Panamax, Pearl River Delta, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, post-Panamax, profit motive, rent-seeking, reshoring, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart grid, Snapchat, special economic zone, spice trade, statistical model, Stephen Hawking, Steve Jobs, Stuxnet, TaskRabbit, The Future of Employment, too big to fail, trade liberalization, trade route, transaction costs, transatlantic slave trade, uranium enrichment, We are the 99%, We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters, working poor, working-age population, zero day

Development Research Group, Poverty & Inequality Team, Washington D.C.: World Bank. 77. Naim, Moses (2005). Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers and Counterfeiters Are Hijacking the Global Economy. London: Random House. 78. Pimentel, David (2005). “Update on the Environmental and Economic Costs Associated with Alien-Invasive Species in the United States.” Ecological Economics 52: 273–288. 79. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Geneva: IPCC. 80. Anderson, Benedict (2006). Imagined Communities: Reflections on the Origin and Spread of Nationalism. London: Verso. 81. W3 Techs (2015). “Usage of Content Languages for Websites.” Retrieved from w3techs.com/technologies/overview/content_language/all. 82. Internet World Stats (2014). “Internet World Users by Language.” Usage and Population Statistics.

Admit risk Venice’s greatest mistake was complacency in the face of increasingly clear vulnerabilities. We are in danger of repeating it. Our own complacency has two roots: lack of awareness and lack of urgency. How to tackle the first is straightforward: political leadership, public education and social media campaigns have all proven effective. Take one of the biggest issues in the world today: climate change. In 2014, about the same time that the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released an updated report on the increasing likelihood of “severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts,” surveys showed that climate change ranked somewhere between 12th (in Europe) and 14th (in the US) on people’s list of worries.59 By mid-2015, in the build-up to the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, it had risen to third and sixth, respectively. And survey respondents across sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America (regions especially vulnerable to climate change) rated it the top global threat they could see—far ahead of global economic instability, Iran’s nuclear program or the rise of the Islamic State.60 So we know how to put things on the global public’s radar.

The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community by David C. Korten

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Albert Einstein, banks create money, big-box store, Bretton Woods, British Empire, clean water, colonial rule, Community Supported Agriculture, death of newspapers, declining real wages, European colonialism, Francisco Pizarro, full employment, George Gilder, global supply chain, global village, God and Mammon, Hernando de Soto, Howard Zinn, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, joint-stock company, land reform, market bubble, market fundamentalism, Monroe Doctrine, Naomi Klein, neoliberal agenda, new economy, peak oil, planetary scale, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Project for a New American Century, Ronald Reagan, Rosa Parks, sexual politics, source of truth, South Sea Bubble, stem cell, structural adjustment programs, The Chicago School, trade route, Washington Consensus, wealth creators, World Values Survey

World Wildlife Fund for Nature, Living Planet Report 2002 (Cambridge, UK: WWF, 2002). Available at http:// www.panda.org/ downloads/general/LPR_2002.pdf. 8. Ibid. 9. Chris Bright, “A History of Our Future,” in Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2004, 5. 10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Meteorological Association and United Nations Environment Programme, Third Assessment Report: Climate Change 2001 (Geneva: 2001), available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/online.htm. 11. Jonathan Leake, “Britain Faces Big Chill as Ocean Current Slows,” Sunday Times, May 8, 2005, http://www.timesonline.co.uk/ article/0,,2087-1602579,00.html. 12. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report. 13. Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security, October 2003, 1–2, 22, available at http://www.gbn.com/ ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?


pages: 471 words: 124,585

The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Niall Ferguson

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Admiral Zheng, Andrei Shleifer, Asian financial crisis, asset allocation, asset-backed security, Atahualpa, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Black Swan, Black-Scholes formula, Bonfire of the Vanities, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, capital asset pricing model, capital controls, Carmen Reinhart, Cass Sunstein, central bank independence, collateralized debt obligation, colonial exploitation, commoditize, Corn Laws, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, Daniel Kahneman / Amos Tversky, deglobalization, diversification, diversified portfolio, double entry bookkeeping, Edmond Halley, Edward Glaeser, Edward Lloyd's coffeehouse, financial innovation, financial intermediation, fixed income, floating exchange rates, Fractional reserve banking, Francisco Pizarro, full employment, German hyperinflation, Hernando de Soto, high net worth, hindsight bias, Home mortgage interest deduction, Hyman Minsky, income inequality, information asymmetry, interest rate swap, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, iterative process, John Meriwether, joint-stock company, joint-stock limited liability company, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Rogoff, knowledge economy, labour mobility, Landlord’s Game, liberal capitalism, London Interbank Offered Rate, Long Term Capital Management, market bubble, market fundamentalism, means of production, Mikhail Gorbachev, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, moral hazard, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, Myron Scholes, Naomi Klein, negative equity, Nick Leeson, Northern Rock, Parag Khanna, pension reform, price anchoring, price stability, principal–agent problem, probability theory / Blaise Pascal / Pierre de Fermat, profit motive, quantitative hedge fund, RAND corporation, random walk, rent control, rent-seeking, reserve currency, Richard Thaler, Robert Shiller, Robert Shiller, Ronald Reagan, savings glut, seigniorage, short selling, Silicon Valley, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, spice trade, structural adjustment programs, technology bubble, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Bayes, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, transaction costs, value at risk, Washington Consensus, Yom Kippur War

A successful biological attack using anthrax spores could be nearly as lethal.83 What if global warming is increasing the incidence of natural disasters? Here, too, there are some grounds for unease. According to the scientific experts on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ‘the frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most areas’ as a result of man-made global warming. There is also ‘observational evidence of an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970’. The rising sea levels forecast by the IPCC would inevitably increase the flood damage caused by storms like Katrina.84 Not all scientists accept the notion that hurricane activity along the US Atlantic coast is on the increase (as claimed by Al Gore in his film An Inconvenient Truth).

., p. 119. 82 Graham Allison, ‘Time to Bury a Dangerous Legacy, Part 1’, Yale Global, 14 March 2008. Cf. idem, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe (Cambridge, MA, 2004). 83 Michael D. Intriligator and Abdullah Toukan, ‘Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction’, in Peter Kotana, Michael D. Intriligator and John P. Sullivan (eds.), Countering Terrorism and WMD: Creating a Global Counter-terrorism Network (New York, 2006), table 4.1A. 84 See IPCC, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (Valencia, 2007). 85 Robert Looney, ‘Economic Costs to the United States Stemming from the 9/11 Attacks’, Center for Contemporary Conflict Strategic Insight (5 August 2002). 86 Robert E. Litan, ‘Sharing and Reducing the Financial Risks of Future Mega-Catastrophes’, Brookings Issues in Economic Policy, 4 (March 2006). 87 William Hutchings, ‘Citadel Builds a Diverse Business’, Financial News, 3 October 2007. 88 Marcia Vickers, ‘A Hedge Fund Superstar’, Fortune, 3 April 2007. 89 Joseph Santos, ‘A History of Futures Trading in the United States’, South Dakota University MS, n.d. 5.


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Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped Our World and Will Define Our Future by Ian Goldin, Geoffrey Cameron, Meera Balarajan

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Admiral Zheng, agricultural Revolution, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Branko Milanovic, British Empire, conceptual framework, creative destruction, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, endogenous growth, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, guest worker program, illegal immigration, income inequality, income per capita, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), job automation, Joseph Schumpeter, knowledge economy, labor-force participation, labour mobility, Lao Tzu, life extension, low skilled workers, low-wage service sector, Malacca Straits, mass immigration, microcredit, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, old age dependency ratio, open borders, out of africa, price mechanism, purchasing power parity, Richard Florida, selection bias, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, spice trade, trade route, transaction costs, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, women in the workforce, working-age population

The 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, sponsored by the British government, noted that without a reduction in carbon emissions, the livelihoods of people could be affected by changes in access to water, food production, health, and use of land and the environment.61 Climate change would have the most severe consequences for developing countries because of geography and the relative lack of economic and political resources to respond to severe environmental stress. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has noted that shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and agricultural disruption can promote human migration as an adaptive response. The debate around the implications of climate change for migration revolves around the magnitude and permanence of displacement by environmental factors. In the coming century, climate change would make many parts of the world less viable places to live, threatening the security and livelihoods of millions of people.

As sea levels rise in the Indian Ocean and the islands in the Maldives become less habitable, the population will become more concentrated in Male, and the number of people looking to emigrate could increase. Climate change also poses a major threat to Bangladesh, where many of the country's people live in densely populated coastal areas. Rising sea levels will exacerbate coastal flooding, and tropical cyclones and storm surges would be more severe. Fluctuating rainfall patterns and melting glaciers in the Himalayas would lead to higher flows during the monsoon season. A lead author of the IPCC report, Dr. Atiq Rahman, speculates that 35 million people could be displaced from the coastal regions of Bangladesh by 2050.75 It is still unclear precisely how these climate threats would influence out-migration from Bangladesh, and overseas development assistance has already begun to focus on building infrastructure and systems that will facilitate internal migration and diminish the human impact of floods and storms.76 The way in which environmental change impacts peoples' livelihoods and generates migration pressure will be heavily determined by states' social policies and their capacity to respond to immediate crises.


pages: 497 words: 150,205

European Spring: Why Our Economies and Politics Are in a Mess - and How to Put Them Right by Philippe Legrain

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3D printing, Airbnb, Asian financial crisis, bank run, banking crisis, barriers to entry, Basel III, battle of ideas, Berlin Wall, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business process, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, Carmen Reinhart, Celtic Tiger, central bank independence, centre right, cleantech, collaborative consumption, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, corporate governance, creative destruction, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, crony capitalism, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, debt deflation, Diane Coyle, Downton Abbey, Edward Glaeser, Elon Musk, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, eurozone crisis, fear of failure, financial deregulation, first-past-the-post, forward guidance, full employment, Gini coefficient, global supply chain, Growth in a Time of Debt, hiring and firing, hydraulic fracturing, Hyman Minsky, Hyperloop, immigration reform, income inequality, interest rate derivative, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Irish property bubble, James Dyson, Jane Jacobs, job satisfaction, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Rogoff, labour market flexibility, labour mobility, liquidity trap, margin call, Martin Wolf, mittelstand, moral hazard, mortgage debt, mortgage tax deduction, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, open economy, peer-to-peer rental, price stability, private sector deleveraging, pushing on a string, quantitative easing, Richard Florida, rising living standards, risk-adjusted returns, Robert Gordon, savings glut, school vouchers, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart grid, smart meter, software patent, sovereign wealth fund, Steve Jobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, too big to fail, total factor productivity, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, working-age population, Zipcar

The sensitivity of the global climate to rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is highly uncertain and the local impacts are even more unpredictable. For example, contrary to climatologists’ predictions, global temperatures have scarcely risen over the past decade, yet paradoxically sea ice in the Arctic is melting much faster than they expected.582 The most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights that the many of the predictions in previous reports are actually much less certain than they claimed.583 This is red meat for sceptics, some of whom don’t believe that man-made climate change is actually happening. Sceptics can also point to the many follies of EU climate policy, such as massive subsidies for biofuels, or the fact that Germany subsidises both clean energy and filthy coal.

Code: proj_10c2150zmp 580 See The Economist, "The autopilot solution", 2 February 2013. http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21571116-how-notional-savings-accounts-could-put-state-pensions-sustainable 581 See, for instance, Friends of the Earth Europe, "2030 Climate and Energy Policy: The Time is Now", May 2013 http://www.foeeurope.org/sites/default/files/publications/2030_briefing_may2013.pdf and Greenpeace EU, "The Next Step in Europe’s Climate Action: Setting Targets for 2030", June 2013 http://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/Global/eu-unit/reports-briefings/2013/ecofys_PolicyPaper.pdf 582 http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21574490-climate-change-may-be-happening-more-slowly-scientists-thought-world-still-needs 583 http://www.ipcc.ch/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_campaign=525d05a1c0-June_Mailout7_5_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b63698abdf-525d05a1c0-61519721 584 Dieter Helm, The Carbon Crunch: How We’re Getting Climate Change Wrong – And How to Fix It, Yale: 2012 585 International Energy Authority, Medium-term coal market report, 2012 586 10 per cent in the transport sector. 587 Quoted in http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/danielfinkelstein/article3865753.ece 588 Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Routledge: 1942 pp. 82–83. 589 The education targets are reducing the rates of early school leaving below 10 per cent and at least 40 per cent of 30-34–year-olds completing third-level education. http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/europe-2020-in-a-nutshell/targets/index_en.htm 590 http://www.oecd.org/site/innovationstrategy/45187823.pdf 591 http://www.oecd.org/site/innovationstrategy/45187845.pdf 592 http://www.oecd.org/site/innovationstrategy/45187873.pdf 593 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c74be3b8-adc3-11e2-a2c7-00144feabdc0.html 594 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?


pages: 777 words: 186,993

Imagining India by Nandan Nilekani

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affirmative action, Airbus A320, BRICs, British Empire, business process, business process outsourcing, call centre, clean water, colonial rule, corporate governance, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, demographic dividend, demographic transition, Deng Xiaoping, digital map, distributed generation, farmers can use mobile phones to check market prices, full employment, ghettoisation, glass ceiling, global supply chain, Hernando de Soto, income inequality, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), joint-stock company, knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, land reform, light touch regulation, LNG terminal, load shedding, Mahatma Gandhi, market fragmentation, mass immigration, Mikhail Gorbachev, Network effects, new economy, New Urbanism, open economy, Parag Khanna, pension reform, Potemkin village, price mechanism, race to the bottom, rent control, rolodex, Ronald Reagan, school vouchers, Silicon Valley, smart grid, special economic zone, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, transaction costs, trickle-down economics, unemployed young men, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, women in the workforce, working poor, working-age population

India may even be disproportionately vulnerable—the immediate catastrophe from climate change, as Kevin Watkins, an economist and lead author of the UNDP’s Human Development Report 2007, has noted, “won’t happen in Manhattan, but in Andhra.” India is already feeling the heat of global warming. “The effects of emissions and environmental abuse,” Dr. R. K. Pachauri, chairman of the now famous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), tells me, “is already quite apparent across India.” Environmental degradation is becoming visible here in all its grimy splendor—for example, in the vast bank of “dirty clouds” formed from industrial emissions that hang suspended over the subcontinent, which India sleeps and wakes under. The past years have also seen the country struggle with massively delayed rains and unexpected droughts.

CEO Forum Industrial Development and Regulation Act (1951) Industrial Revolution infant mortality rates inflation information technology (IT); acceptance of; in agriculture ; in banking ; caste identification and; computers in ; economic impact of ; education and ; for energy sources; entrepreneurs in; for environmental issues; “gatekeepers” eliminated by ; in global economy ; government policies on ; growth of ; for health care ; identity cards supported by; Internet access of ; investment in ; jobs created by ; kiosks for ; for land records, ; low-cost approach of; outsourcing of; see also business process outsourcing; paperwork eliminated by; political applications of; poverty alleviated by ; for railroad schedules ; for retirement funds ; in rural areas ; for social services; for stock exchanges ; for taxation; technological revolution in; in telecommunications ; in urban areas ; for voting ; see also software industry Infosys Technologies Institution for Human Settlements insurance industry Insurance Regulatory Authority of India (IRAI) Integrated Energy Policy interest rates Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Food Policy Research Institute International Monetary Fund (IMF) International Water Management Institute International Year of the Aged Invest India Foundation investment, capital Iran Ireland iron irrigation ISO 9000 certifications Israel Ivory Coast Iyengar, Haravu Raj Jaffrelot, Christophe Jain, L. C. Jallianwala Bagh attack (1919) Jammu Janaagraha Janata Dal Jan Sangh Japan jatropha jaundice Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) Jayakar Commission (1927) Jejeebhoy, Lady Avia Jharkhand Jiang Zemin Jindal Steel Jinnah, Mohammed Ali job creation job retraining job security Johnson, Lyndon B.


pages: 797 words: 227,399

Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century by P. W. Singer

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agricultural Revolution, Albert Einstein, Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Atahualpa, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, Bill Joy: nanobots, blue-collar work, borderless world, clean water, Craig Reynolds: boids flock, cuban missile crisis, digital map, en.wikipedia.org, Ernest Rutherford, failed state, Fall of the Berlin Wall, Firefox, Francisco Pizarro, Frank Gehry, friendly fire, game design, George Gilder, Google Earth, Grace Hopper, I think there is a world market for maybe five computers, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, industrial robot, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invention of gunpowder, invention of movable type, invention of the steam engine, Isaac Newton, Jacques de Vaucanson, job automation, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, Law of Accelerating Returns, Mars Rover, Menlo Park, New Urbanism, pattern recognition, private military company, RAND corporation, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, robot derives from the Czech word robota Czech, meaning slave, Rodney Brooks, Ronald Reagan, Schrödinger's Cat, Silicon Valley, speech recognition, Stephen Hawking, strong AI, technological singularity, The Coming Technological Singularity, The Wisdom of Crowds, Turing test, Vernor Vinge, Wall-E, Yogi Berra

More people also means more environmental degradation, thus also overwhelming the planet’s ability to cope. This creates a feedback loop, which worsens the problem of scarcity. Then add in the effect of global warming. Whether you believe the cause is man-made carbon dioxide or unicorn farts, it is without dispute that the warming of the Earth will make life more difficult for many. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found that the current pace of global warming will bring water scarcity to between 1.1 and 3.2 billion people over the next few decades, and create food shortages for an additional 200 to 600 million. As if this wasn’t bad enough, while some parts of the globe will be parched for water, others may suffer instead from too much of it. Some 100 million people will face the annual risk of floods from rising sea levels, and destructive megastorms like Hurricane Katrina will also become more common, as ocean temperature is the “fuel” for hurricanes.

Hopper, Grace How to Survive a Robot Uprising: Tips on Defending Yourself Against the Coming Rebellion (Wilson) Hudson, Cliff Human Genome Project “Human ID at a Distance” program humanoid robots human rights accountability of autonomous systems and legality of weapons and rules of engagement and rules of war and self-defense and unmanned systems and war crimes and Human Rights Watch Hunter (unmanned aerial vehicle) “Hunters of Minesweepers, The,” Huntington, Sam Hurricane Katrina Hussein, Qusay Hussein, Saddam Hussein, Uday hyperspectral imagery I, Robot (Asimov) I, Robot (film) IBM Idaho National Lab i-Foot (robot) Ignatieff, Michael Ijaz, Mansoor Iliad (Homer) improvised explosive device (IED) insurgency-technology struggle and Incans India Industrial Age Information and Communications Ministry, South Korean information technology (IT) network-centric warfare and Institute of Automation insurgency Integrated Battle Command Intel Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) International Atomic Energy Agency International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) International Trade and Industry Ministry, Japan Internet exponential changes in robotics and Iran Iran Air Flight 655 tragedy Iraq Iraq war counterinsurgency challenge in demand for UAVs in IEDs in insurgency in Joint Robotics Repair Facility in lack of doctrine in network-centric warfare and private contractors in rules of engagement in technology-insurgents battle in IREX (International Robotics Exhibition) iRobot Foster-Miller’s rivalry with ownership structure of products of Swarm Project of Ishiguro, Hiroshi Israel Hezbollah vs.


pages: 289 words: 112,697

The new village green: living light, living local, living large by Stephen Morris

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back-to-the-land, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, cleantech, collective bargaining, Columbine, Community Supported Agriculture, computer age, cuban missile crisis, deindustrialization, discovery of penicillin, distributed generation, energy security, energy transition, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, Firefox, index card, Indoor air pollution, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Kevin Kelly, Louis Pasteur, Mahatma Gandhi, mass immigration, McMansion, Menlo Park, Negawatt, off grid, peak oil, rolodex, Silicon Valley, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review

Compared with the original models of a few years ago, ice is melting faster; forest soils are giving up more carbon as they warm; storms are increasing much more quickly in number and size. As I’m writing these words, news comes across the bottom of my computer screen that a new study shows methane leaking from Siberian permafrost at five times the predicted rate, which is seriously bad news since methane is an even more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 . In this fast-changing scientific puzzle, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has given the world valuable guidance for a decade, stands the risk of being outrun by new data. The panel is supposed to issue a new report in the coming year summarizing the findings made by climate scientists since its last report. But it’s unlikely that its somewhat unwieldy procedures will allow it to incorporate fears such as Lovelock’s adequately, or even to address fully the far more mainstream predictions issued during the last twelve months by James Hansen of NASA, the planet’s top climatologist.1 Hansen is not quite as gloomy as Lovelock.


pages: 372 words: 107,587

The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality by Richard Heinberg

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3D printing, agricultural Revolution, back-to-the-land, banking crisis, banks create money, Bretton Woods, carbon footprint, Carmen Reinhart, clean water, cloud computing, collateralized debt obligation, computerized trading, credit crunch, Credit Default Swap, credit default swaps / collateralized debt obligations, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Graeber, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, dematerialisation, demographic dividend, Deng Xiaoping, Elliott wave, en.wikipedia.org, energy transition, falling living standards, financial deregulation, financial innovation, Fractional reserve banking, full employment, Gini coefficient, global village, happiness index / gross national happiness, I think there is a world market for maybe five computers, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Kenneth Rogoff, late fees, liberal capitalism, mega-rich, money market fund, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage debt, naked short selling, Naomi Klein, Negawatt, new economy, Nixon shock, offshore financial centre, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Ponzi scheme, post-oil, price stability, private military company, quantitative easing, reserve currency, ride hailing / ride sharing, Ronald Reagan, short selling, special drawing rights, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Thomas Malthus, Thorstein Veblen, too big to fail, trade liberalization, tulip mania, working poor, zero-sum game

Water Resources Research 44 (March 29, 2008). 44.N ational Energy Technology Laboratory, Innovations for Existing Plants Program, “Water-Energy Interface,” netl.doe.gov/technologies/coalpower/–ewr/water/power-gen.html. 45. “The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change famously predicted [the Himalayan glaciers] could disappear as soon as 2035. It turns out that guesstimate was based on misquoting a researcher in a 1999 news article — not a result from any kind of peer-reviewed scientific study. The incident reflects a breakdown in the IPCC process but it doesn’t undercut the reality that glacier loss, particularly in what are technically tropical regions such as the Andes and Himalayas, continues to accelerate in the 21st century. Though they likely won’t disappear entirely for centuries, losing the glaciers will eventually be bad news for the billions around the world who rely on meltwater to survive.”


pages: 388 words: 125,472

The Establishment: And How They Get Away With It by Owen Jones

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anti-communist, Asian financial crisis, bank run, battle of ideas, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, bonus culture, Bretton Woods, British Empire, call centre, capital controls, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, centre right, citizen journalism, collapse of Lehman Brothers, collective bargaining, don't be evil, Edward Snowden, Etonian, eurozone crisis, falling living standards, Francis Fukuyama: the end of history, full employment, G4S, glass ceiling, hiring and firing, housing crisis, inflation targeting, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), investor state dispute settlement, James Dyson, laissez-faire capitalism, light touch regulation, market fundamentalism, mass immigration, Monroe Doctrine, Mont Pelerin Society, moral hazard, Neil Kinnock, night-watchman state, Northern Rock, Occupy movement, offshore financial centre, old-boy network, open borders, Plutocrats, plutocrats, popular capitalism, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, rent control, road to serfdom, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, short selling, sovereign wealth fund, stakhanovite, statistical model, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transfer pricing, union organizing, unpaid internship, Washington Consensus, wealth creators, Winter of Discontent

About ten minutes later, the doctor found that his heart had stopped and he was no longer breathing. Upon arriving at King’s College Hospital, Southwark, Rigg was pronounced dead. But when Rigg’s death was investigated by the IPCC, their report of February 2010 found no evidence of neglect or wrongdoing on the part of the police, claiming, rather, that they had acted ‘reasonably and proportionately’. For critics of the IPCC, it was a risible verdict, albeit a hardly unexpected one. In 2008 over a hundred lawyers resigned from its advisory board, expressing ‘increasing dismay and disillusionment’ at ‘the consistently poor quality of decision-making at all levels of the IPCC’. In February 2013 a report by the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee savaged the IPCC for being ‘woefully under-equipped and hamstrung in achieving its original objectives. It has neither the powers nor the resources that it needs when the integrity of the police is in doubt.’23 In large part, it is not an issue of lack of powers or competence: it’s a question of who makes up the IPCC, which brings into question how independent it actually is as a body.

It would be five years after his death before three police officers – two police officers involved in the detention and a Police Federation officer – were themselves taken into custody for perjury and perverting the course of justice, and another year before the Crown Prosecution Service considered legal action against two of those officers. Four arresting officers and a police sergeant are being re-investigated by the IPCC as they examine the arrest, restraint and detention of Rigg. When an independent report into the IPCC’s investigation was published in May 2013, it was an indictment of a watchdog that supposedly existed to hold the police to account. The IPCC had accepted accounts from officers that were ‘implausible and improbable’; it had failed to examine CCTV footage that contradicted an officer’s claims; and interference by the Police Federation amounted to ‘inappropriate conduct’. The police officers involved had been able to confer with each other.24 The IPCC investigation was a joke, a sham, a parody of a genuinely thorough attempt to uncover the truth. ‘Sean was not an animal,’ Marcia says.

The officers informed the family that the IPCC would be conducting an investigation, handed them an A4 leaflet explaining the role of this supposed police watchdog, and informed them of the IPCC investigator’s name: Christopher Partridge. Samantha asked the officers when they could identify the body. ‘They said he was sealed off in a body bag and offered Sean’s passport to identify Sean,’ says Marcia. ‘We couldn’t comprehend that.’ The officers also handed Samantha a bunch of leaflets, one belonging to the charity Inquest. Desperate, Samantha got in touch with them, and was informed by Inquest that there would be a state autopsy later that morning, on 22 August. Marcia returned to London that day, meeting the rest of the family at the hostel as they put questions to the care team. On behalf of the IPCC, lead investigator Christopher Partridge informed the family of the results of the autopsy and apparent injuries: ‘a small scratch to his cheek, some injuries consistent with the handcuffing, a few grazes on his knees and elbows, and that was it.


pages: 162 words: 34,454

Mad Mobs and Englishmen? Myths and Realities of the 2011 Riots by Steve Reicher, Cliff Stott

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Brixton riot, Deng Xiaoping, Fellow of the Royal Society, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), New Urbanism

At that meeting, the acting Borough Commander was made aware of the potential for a riot and told that the police needed to provide more information about Duggan’s shooting in order to reduce tension.144 The police apparently made clear that they could not provide any information on the shooting because of the constraints they felt were placed upon them as a result of the IPCC investigation. According to a BBC report, those present at the meeting said they agreed instead to inform the IPCC of the need for information – presumably so they could begin the process of liaising with the family and easing tensions.144 But according to the same report, Deborah Glass (Deputy Chair of the IPCC) insisted that the Metropolitan Police did not contact them until 8 p.m. on Saturday evening. In her BBC interview, Glass asserts that there were protocols in place to ‘make it very clear the police are not gagged when the IPCC are involved in an investigation’.144 Wherever responsibility actually lay between the IPCC and the police, one thing is certain – no information was provided either to the family or the community.

Doubts were cast on the credibility of the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC), who were investigating what had happened. Those who spoke out also gave the Prime Minister a prophetic warning that ‘unrest would reach your shores soon unless you address the needs and concerns of us the community.’140 The Death of Mark Duggan On Thursday, 4 August 2011, at about six in the afternoon, a 29-year-old black man called Mark Duggan – from the Broadwater Farm estate in Haringey, North London – was travelling in a taxi along Ferry Lane in Tottenham Hale. Unbeknownst to Duggan, officers acting under the direction of Operation Trident had him under surveillance. In circumstances as yet unclear, the police moved in, shots were fired by the police and moments later Mark Duggan was dead. Given that this was a fatal shooting, the IPCC (Independent Police Complaints Commission) became involved almost straight away.

The following morning the Daily Telegraph wrote that ‘a policeman’s life was saved by his radio last night after a gunman Mark Duggan opened fire on him and the bullet hit the device’. The article went on to state that armed police ‘returned fire’ and as a consequence Duggan, ‘a well known gangster’, was shot dead. An un-named IPCC spokesperson was also quoted saying that they ‘understand the officer was shot first before the male was shot.’141 The Deputy Chair of the IPCC later retracted this claim and apologized for the misleading nature of earlier comments. But in many respects significant damage had already been done. From that point onward, Mark Duggan was branded in the press as the armed gangster who had fired the first bullet at the police. This view did not go uncontested. In a televised interview Mark Duggan’s family refused to accept that he had been armed, let alone that he had been the aggressor.


pages: 121 words: 36,908

Four Futures: Life After Capitalism by Peter Frase

3D printing, Airbnb, basic income, bitcoin, call centre, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty, carbon footprint, cryptocurrency, deindustrialization, Edward Snowden, Erik Brynjolfsson, Ferguson, Missouri, fixed income, full employment, future of work, high net worth, income inequality, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), iterative process, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, litecoin, mass incarceration, means of production, Norbert Wiener, Occupy movement, pattern recognition, peak oil, Plutocrats, plutocrats, postindustrial economy, price mechanism, private military company, Ray Kurzweil, Robert Gordon, Second Machine Age, self-driving car, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, smart meter, TaskRabbit, technoutopianism, The Future of Employment, Thomas Malthus, Tyler Cowen: Great Stagnation, universal basic income, Wall-E, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, We are the 99%, Wolfgang Streeck

Things in our world may not play out with such literal deceptions, but we can already see how our political and economic elites manage to justify ever-higher levels of misery and death while remaining convinced that they are great humanitarians. NOTES Introduction: Technology and Ecology as Apocalypse and Utopia 1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,” ESRL.NOAA.gov, 2014. 2Thomas F. Stocker et al., “Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013. 3Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, New York: W. W. Norton, 2014. 4Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?,” OxfordMartin.ox.ac.uk, 2013. 5Kevin Drum, “Welcome, Robot Overlords.

Classification: LCC HB72 .F6775 2016 (print) | LCC HB72 (ebook) | DDC 330--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016023756 Typeset in Fournier by Hewer Text UK Ltd, Edinburgh, Scotland Printed in the US by Maple Press CONTENTS Introduction: Technology and Ecology as Apocalypse and Utopia 1.Communism: Equality and Abundance 2.Rentism: Hierarchy and Abundance 3.Socialism: Equality and Scarcity 4.Exterminism: Hierarchy and Scarcity Notes Conclusion: Transitions and Prospects INTRODUCTION: TECHNOLOGY AND ECOLOGY AS APOCALYPSE AND UTOPIA Two specters are haunting Earth in the twenty-first century: the specters of ecological catastrophe and automation. In 2013, a US government observatory recorded that global concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide had reached 400 parts per million for the first time in recorded history.1 This threshold, which the Earth had not passed in as many as 3 million years, heralds accelerating climate change over the coming century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts diminishing sea ice, acidification of the oceans, and increasing frequency of droughts and extreme storm events.2 At the same time, news of technological breakthroughs in the context of high unemployment and stagnant wages has produced anxious warnings about the effects of automation on the future of work. In early 2014, Massachusetts Institute of Technology professors Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee published The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies.3 They surveyed a future in which computer and robotics technology replaces human labor not just in traditional domains such as agriculture and manufacturing, but also in sectors ranging from medicine and law to transportation.

Some of the changes are irreversible and must simply be adapted to. But it is nevertheless urgent that we reduce carbon emissions massively, in order to head off more apocalyptic scenarios. As Christian Parenti has argued in his many works on the climate crisis, large-scale transformation on a very short time scale is necessary if we want to preserve a decent and livable world for the whole of humanity. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that to avoid catastrophic global feedback loops and tipping points, rich countries must cut their carbon emissions by as much as 90 percent by 2050. The severity of the challenge and the short time to act mean that, as Parenti says, “it is this society and these institutions that must cut emissions.”7 This challenge falls far short of overthrowing capitalism and yet still entails the monumental challenge of bringing down the powerful interests that profit from destructive fossil fuels.

The Techno-Human Condition by Braden R. Allenby, Daniel R. Sarewitz

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airport security, augmented reality, carbon footprint, clean water, cognitive dissonance, conceptual framework, creative destruction, Credit Default Swap, decarbonisation, facts on the ground, friendly fire, industrial cluster, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), invisible hand, Isaac Newton, Jane Jacobs, land tenure, life extension, Long Term Capital Management, market fundamentalism, mutually assured destruction, nuclear winter, Peter Singer: altruism, planetary scale, prediction markets, Ralph Waldo Emerson, Ray Kurzweil, Silicon Valley, smart grid, source of truth, stem cell, Stewart Brand, technoutopianism, the built environment, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, transcontinental railway, Whole Earth Catalog

But because those who are concerned about the consequences of climate change feel a powerful need to make strong claims about the future, they often treat model results not as scenarios but as plausible futures, and climate science not as an input into more complex social deliberations but as the determinative discourse. 4 Politically, a major reason why top-down international approaches to climate change exemplified by the Kyoto Protocol have failed is that they represent the effort of Earth scientists, environmental advocates, and diplomats to take a complicated human system and manage it through the applied reason of climate-change science. Much of the scientific information that justifies the Kyoto Protocol has been provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose many products include multiple scenarios about, for example, future temperatures and carbon dioxide emissions-scenarios that are always represented as suites of smooth curves, based on different assumptions, extending for the next hundred or more years. And yet, though it is not possible to predict the specifics of technological evolution over that period, we can say with a high degree of confidence that any such curve is surely wrong, starting with its smoothness. 112 Chapter 6 Imagine trying to predict out a hundred years in 1900.

lo For example, a professor writing in the Medical Journal of Australia recently called on the Australian government to impose a carbon charge of $5,000 on every birth, to charge annual carbon fees of $800 per child, and to provide a carbon credit for sterilization. 11 Articles in New Scientist have suggested that obesity is mostly a problem because of the additional carbon load it imposes on the environment,12 that a major social cost of divorce is the additional carbon burden resulting from splitting up families, and that pets should be should be eliminated because of their carbon footprints ("Man's best friend, it turns out, is the planet's enemy").13 A recent study from the Swedish Ministry of Sustainable Development argues that males have a disproportionately larger impact on global warming. 14 ("Women cause considerably fewer carbon dioxide emissions than men, and thus considerably less climate change.") The chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that those who downplay the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change are no better than Hitler. 1s (He now claims that his words were taken out of context, but the reporter who conducted the interview, Lars From, stands by it.) E. O. Wilson has called such people parasites. The columnist Ellen Goodman has Complexity, Coherence, Contingency 123 written that "global warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers.,,16 There are always fringe articles and unfortunate comments in areas of active public debate.

This moral evolution bears the fingerprints of the Enlightenment because science has been invoked-both by scientists and laypersons-as the key source of information, guidance, and truth underlying the authority of carbon fundamentalism. As we write these words, however, the predictable backlash is gathering momentum. E-mail exchanges among climate scientists, and errors in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have provided ammunition for those who oppose carbon-footprint fundamentalism to use in attacking the authority of the scienceY Public support for action on climate change is declining not just in the United States but in many European countries as well. In some ways, then, the climate-change discourse is not a brave assault of knowledge against ignorance and greed, but rather is yet another example of how Enlightenment rationalism-the foundation for linking rationality to action for 300 Complexity, Coherence, Contingency 125 years-is failing.


pages: 378 words: 110,518

Postcapitalism: A Guide to Our Future by Paul Mason

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Alfred Russel Wallace, bank run, banking crisis, banks create money, Basel III, basic income, Bernie Madoff, Bill Gates: Altair 8800, bitcoin, Branko Milanovic, Bretton Woods, BRICs, British Empire, business process, butterfly effect, call centre, capital controls, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, Claude Shannon: information theory, collaborative economy, collective bargaining, Corn Laws, corporate social responsibility, creative destruction, credit crunch, currency manipulation / currency intervention, currency peg, David Graeber, deglobalization, deindustrialization, deskilling, discovery of the americas, Downton Abbey, drone strike, en.wikipedia.org, energy security, eurozone crisis, factory automation, financial repression, Firefox, Fractional reserve banking, Frederick Winslow Taylor, full employment, future of work, game design, income inequality, inflation targeting, informal economy, information asymmetry, intangible asset, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Internet of things, job automation, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Joseph Schumpeter, Kenneth Arrow, Kevin Kelly, knowledge economy, knowledge worker, late capitalism, low skilled workers, market clearing, means of production, Metcalfe's law, money: store of value / unit of account / medium of exchange, mortgage debt, Network effects, new economy, Norbert Wiener, Occupy movement, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, Paul Samuelson, payday loans, Pearl River Delta, post-industrial society, precariat, price mechanism, profit motive, quantitative easing, race to the bottom, RAND corporation, rent-seeking, reserve currency, RFID, Richard Stallman, Robert Gordon, Robert Metcalfe, secular stagnation, sharing economy, Stewart Brand, structural adjustment programs, supply-chain management, The Future of Employment, the scientific method, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, Transnistria, union organizing, universal basic income, urban decay, urban planning, Vilfredo Pareto, wages for housework, women in the workforce

But in the edge-places of the world the catastrophe is happening already. If we listened to those whose lives are being destroyed by floods, deforestation and encroaching deserts, we would better understand what is coming: the total disruption of the world. The IPCC’s fifth report, published in 2013, states unequivocally that the planet is warming. ‘Since the 1950s,’ say the world’s most respected climate scientists, ‘many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, [the] sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.’2 The IPCC is confident that this is primarily caused by human beings using carbon to fuel economic growth – so much so that in this report it upgraded from ‘likely’ to ‘very likely’ the probability of hotter temperatures, more frequent hot days and more frequent heatwaves being caused by humans.

The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, [the] sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.’2 The IPCC is confident that this is primarily caused by human beings using carbon to fuel economic growth – so much so that in this report it upgraded from ‘likely’ to ‘very likely’ the probability of hotter temperatures, more frequent hot days and more frequent heatwaves being caused by humans. Scientists do not use such terms lightly; they are the equivalent of a qualitative increase in their degree of certainty. Because our ecosystem is so complex, we can’t trace every disruption of the climate to a human cause with 100 per cent certainty. But we can, says the IPCC, be fairly certain that extreme weather – hurricanes, floods, typhoons, droughts – will increase in the second half of the century. In its 2014 update, the IPCC warned unequivocally: failure to stop the rise in carbon emissions would increase the likelihood of ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems’. This, remember, is from a report by scientists. They do not sign off on words like ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible’ before weighing them carefully.


pages: 224 words: 69,494

Mobility: A New Urban Design and Transport Planning Philosophy for a Sustainable Future by John Whitelegg

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active transport: walking or cycling, Berlin Wall, British Empire, car-free, conceptual framework, congestion charging, corporate social responsibility, decarbonisation, energy transition, eurozone crisis, glass ceiling, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), megacity, meta analysis, meta-analysis, New Urbanism, peak oil, post-industrial society, price mechanism, Right to Buy, smart cities, telepresence, the built environment, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Spirit Level, transit-oriented development, urban planning, urban sprawl

It is a source of deep regret that within the EU both national governments and EU-wide policies have fundamentally failed to understand these issues and have set us on a trajectory that will, as a result of an illogical commitment to mobility, multiply a large number of negative consequences including severe climate change. 7. Climate Change “Reducing global transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be challenging since the continuing growth in passenger and freight activity could outweigh all mitigation measures unless transport emissions can be strongly decoupled from GDP growth (high confidence).” (IPCC,2013) “Reducing [climate change] emissions from the on-road transportation sector is particularly attractive because this action yields both rapid and longer term climate benefits.” (Unger, 2010, page 3) The transport sector in the 27 member states of the European Union (EU27) is responsible for 25.5% of total CO2 emissions and these are expected to rise by 120% in the period 2000-2050 (UITP, 2009).

Of this figure Annex 1 countries (the developed world) accounted for 864 GtCO2 which is 72% of the total. Since their share of population was nearly 25%, their fair CO2 emission share would have been 300 GtCO2 and their overuse or carbon debt was therefore about 564 GtCO2. Non Annex 1 countries accounted for 336 GtCO2 which is 28% of the total CO2 emissions. Their fair share would have been 900 GtCO2 and thus they had an underuse of 564 GtCO2 of emissions.” Pape goes on to quote IPCC calculations that set out the case for restricting cumulative CO2 emissions to 900 GtCO2 in the period 2011-2050 and that on a population basis Annex 1 countries should emit only 122 GtCO2, since they represent only 13.5% of the global population. Developing counties with 86.5% of global population should be limited to 778 GtCO2. This is then translated into an equity-based financial compensation mechanism (Pape, 2014): “On top of this, in order to be able to claim this carbon budget of 122 GtCO2 emissions, the developed countries would have to repay the 564 GtCO2 of climate debt that they accumulated in the previous period, 1850–2010.

IARC (2013) Outdoor air pollution a leading cause of cancer deaths, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organisation, Press Release No 221, 17th October 2013. IATA (2009) Aviation and Climate Change: pathway to carbon neutral growth in 2020. International Air Transport Association. ICAO (2013) ICAO Air Transport results confirm robust passenger demand, sluggish cargo demand. IPCC (2013) 5th Assessment Report, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, Chapter 8, Transport. Independent Newspaper (2013), London cycling deaths: woman killed in lorry crash becomes 4th fatality in 8 days on streets of capital, 13th November 2013. ITDP (2008) Sustainable Transport Award Nominees, Sustainable transport, Winter 2008, No 20, page 29, Institute for Transportation and Development, New York.


pages: 468 words: 150,206

Food Revolution, The: How Your Diet Can Help Save Your Life and Our World by John Robbins, Dean Ornish M. D.

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Albert Einstein, carbon footprint, clean water, complexity theory, double helix, Exxon Valdez, food miles, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), laissez-faire capitalism, Mahatma Gandhi, meta analysis, meta-analysis, profit motive, Ralph Nader, randomized controlled trial, Rosa Parks, telemarketer

The report did not have one or two lead authors, as is usual for scientific papers, but 78 lead authors and 400 contributing authors from 26 countries, whose work had been reviewed by 500 additional scientists from 40 countries, and then re-reviewed by 177 delegates representing every national academy of science on Earth." The findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were unequivocal. There is simply no question any longer. Our burning of fossil fuels is destabilizing the world's climate and is likely to unleash devastating weather disturbances and disasters. It is absolutely imperative that we cut carbon emissions all over the world, but particularly in the industrial nations where these emissions are the heaviest. In 2001, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published a new report, revising its estimates. Global warming, they said, was nearly twice as serious and dangerous as their own previous calculations, done five years earlier, had indicated.

As long as we keep on burning fossil fuels and forests, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will continue to skyrocket out of control. As the concentration of carbon dioxide continues to increase, which it inevitably will unless we make major changes, Earth's vegetation won't catch on fire. But many scientists expect the ice caps to break tip, the seas to rise, storms to worsen, pests to spread, and entire ecosystems to die. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was set tip by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program in the early 1990s to ascertain what is certain, and what is speculative, about climate change. The panel, made up of leading climate scientists from 98 countries, studied the problem exhaustively and issued a 1995 report warning the world that global warming is an indisputable reality.

But huge increases in population and even greater increases in technological capability have exponentially amplified our ability to create change. Living indoors in heated and air-conditioned buildings, as many of us do today, we can forget how vulnerable we are to atmospheric conditions. Stephen Schneider is a climatologist who spent twenty years at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. He is currently a professor at Stanford University and an advisor to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He recently described what even a four-degree warming over the next century-now a very conservative estimate of what we may encounter-would mean. "By and large, most of us can adapt to one degree. But four degrees is virtually the difference between an ice age and a warm epoch like we're in now. It takes nature ten thousand years to make those kinds of changes, and we're talking about changes like that on the order of a century.


pages: 565 words: 151,129

The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism by Jeremy Rifkin

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3D printing, active measures, additive manufacturing, Airbnb, autonomous vehicles, back-to-the-land, big-box store, bioinformatics, bitcoin, business process, Chris Urmson, clean water, cleantech, cloud computing, collaborative consumption, collaborative economy, Community Supported Agriculture, Computer Numeric Control, computer vision, crowdsourcing, demographic transition, distributed generation, en.wikipedia.org, Frederick Winslow Taylor, global supply chain, global village, Hacker Ethic, industrial robot, informal economy, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, Internet of things, invisible hand, Isaac Newton, James Watt: steam engine, job automation, John Markoff, John Maynard Keynes: Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, John Maynard Keynes: technological unemployment, Julian Assange, Kickstarter, knowledge worker, labour mobility, Mahatma Gandhi, manufacturing employment, Mark Zuckerberg, market design, mass immigration, means of production, meta analysis, meta-analysis, natural language processing, new economy, New Urbanism, nuclear winter, Occupy movement, off grid, oil shale / tar sands, pattern recognition, peer-to-peer, peer-to-peer lending, personalized medicine, phenotype, planetary scale, price discrimination, profit motive, QR code, RAND corporation, randomized controlled trial, Ray Kurzweil, RFID, Richard Stallman, risk/return, Ronald Coase, search inside the book, self-driving car, shareholder value, sharing economy, Silicon Valley, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, smart meter, social web, software as a service, spectrum auction, Steve Jobs, Stewart Brand, the built environment, The Nature of the Firm, The Structural Transformation of the Public Sphere, The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith, The Wisdom of Crowds, Thomas Kuhn: the structure of scientific revolutions, Thomas L Friedman, too big to fail, transaction costs, urban planning, Watson beat the top human players on Jeopardy!, web application, Whole Earth Catalog, Whole Earth Review, WikiLeaks, working poor, zero-sum game, Zipcar

Wood, “Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity,” NASA, http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/607932main _sheffield_et_al_drought_press_conf.pdf (accessed November 25, 2013). 46. “Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture—Fact Sheet on Asia,” International Food Policy Research Institute, 2009, http://www.ifpri.org/publication/impact-climate-change-agriculture -factsheet-asia (accessed February 27, 2013); Lenny Bernstein, Peter Bosch, Osvaldo Canziani, et al., “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, November 12, 2007, 20–21, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf (accessed March 3, 2013). 47. “Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture—Fact Sheet on Sub-Saharan Africa,” International Food Policy Research Institute, 2009, http://www.ifpri.org/publication/impact-climate-change -agriculture-factsheet-sub-saharan-africa (accessed February 27, 2013). 48. “Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture—Fact Sheet on Middle East and North Africa,” International Food Policy Research Institute, 2009, http://www.ifpri.org/publication/impact -climate-change-agriculture-factsheet-middle-east-and-north-africa (accessed February 27, 2013). 49.


pages: 423 words: 118,002

The Boom: How Fracking Ignited the American Energy Revolution and Changed the World by Russell Gold

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accounting loophole / creative accounting, activist fund / activist shareholder / activist investor, American energy revolution, Bakken shale, Bernie Sanders, Buckminster Fuller, clean water, corporate governance, corporate raider, energy security, energy transition, hydraulic fracturing, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), margin call, market fundamentalism, Mason jar, North Sea oil, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Project Plowshare, risk tolerance, Ronald Reagan, shareholder value, Silicon Valley, Upton Sinclair

Darbonne, Nissa. “Dear Sierra Club, Do You Take This U.S. Natural Gas Industry? An Unexpected Union.” Oil and Gas Investor, March 4, 2008. Devall, Bill. “The End of American Environmentalism?” Nature and Culture 1, no. 2 (Autumn 2006): 157–80. Freeman, James. “The Weekend Interview with Aubrey McClendon: The Politically Incorrect CEO.” Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2012. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2011. Kennedy Jr., Robert F. “How to End America’s Deadly Coal Addiction.” Financial Times, July 19, 2009. Leaton, James. Unburnable Carbon—Are the World’s Financial Markets Carrying a Carbon Bubble? London, UK: Carbon Tracker Initiative, 2011. McKibben, Bill.


pages: 603 words: 182,781

Aerotropolis by John D. Kasarda, Greg Lindsay

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3D printing, air freight, airline deregulation, airport security, Akira Okazaki, Asian financial crisis, back-to-the-land, barriers to entry, Berlin Wall, big-box store, blood diamonds, borderless world, British Empire, call centre, carbon footprint, Cesare Marchetti: Marchetti’s constant, Clayton Christensen, cleantech, cognitive dissonance, commoditize, conceptual framework, credit crunch, David Brooks, David Ricardo: comparative advantage, Deng Xiaoping, deskilling, digital map, edge city, Edward Glaeser, failed state, food miles, Ford paid five dollars a day, Frank Gehry, fudge factor, full employment, future of work, Geoffrey West, Santa Fe Institute, George Gilder, global supply chain, global village, gravity well, Haber-Bosch Process, Hernando de Soto, hive mind, if you build it, they will come, illegal immigration, inflight wifi, intangible asset, interchangeable parts, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), intermodal, invention of the telephone, inventory management, invisible hand, Jane Jacobs, Jeff Bezos, Kangaroo Route, knowledge worker, kremlinology, labour mobility, Marchetti’s constant, Marshall McLuhan, Masdar, mass immigration, McMansion, megacity, Menlo Park, microcredit, Network effects, New Economic Geography, new economy, New Urbanism, oil shale / tar sands, oil shock, peak oil, Pearl River Delta, Peter Thiel, pets.com, pink-collar, pre–internet, RFID, Richard Florida, Ronald Coase, Ronald Reagan, Rubik’s Cube, savings glut, Seaside, Florida, Shenzhen was a fishing village, Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley startup, Skype, smart cities, smart grid, South China Sea, South Sea Bubble, sovereign wealth fund, special economic zone, spice trade, spinning jenny, stem cell, Steve Jobs, supply-chain management, sustainable-tourism, telepresence, the built environment, The Chicago School, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, The Nature of the Firm, thinkpad, Thomas L Friedman, Thomas Malthus, Tony Hsieh, trade route, transcontinental railway, transit-oriented development, traveling salesman, trickle-down economics, upwardly mobile, urban planning, urban renewal, urban sprawl, walkable city, white flight, white picket fence, Yogi Berra, zero-sum game

“I think if things continue in this one-sided sensationalist way, purely targeting air freight, labeling our produce with aeroplanes and not looking at other aspects of production, it will cripple Kenya. It will cripple the economy.” Tesco was torn between their fears and ours. Greenhouse-gas emissions are higher than at any point in human history, and rising faster than even the worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While America dithered and China willfully ignored environmental devastation, Britain led a charge to the barricades. The U.K. was the first nation to adopt a cap-and-trade scheme for emissions and pushed for one encompassing the European Union. Three weeks after Obama was elected promising a similar system, Parliament passed the Climate Change Act, mandating an 80 percent cut in Britain’s emissions by 2050, starting from a 1990 baseline.

For similar reasons, the price of jet fuel actually peaked ten years ago, just before 9/11. But Europe’s easyJet addiction will prove harder to quit, and coupled with renewed growth in the Middle East and Asia, flying’s total carbon contribution will likely rise to 5 percent by 2050. Another caveat is that commercial aircraft release their carbon in the lower reaches of the stratosphere, where greenhouse gases collect. To account for this, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has raised aviation’s effective contribution to 3 percent—a figure equal to a quarter of the traffic on the world’s highways, or half the respiration of our homes. Even at its highest estimates, it isn’t likely aviation will overtake driving as one of the most ergregious global warmers, let alone factories and electric turbines. So why don’t we focus our energies on fixing them instead?

Statistics on the energy use and carbon emissions of the built environment are taken from Linda Tischler’s “The Green Housing Boom” (Fast Company, July/August 2008). Figures on aviation’s declining share of carbon emissions are from the Air Transport Association, an airline industry lobbying group, and from Climate Change 2007: Mitigation, a report by the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Richard Branson’s commitment to devote his transportation businesses’s profits to biofuel research was made at the Clinton Global Initiative conference in September 2006. 1: A Tale of Three Cities The early history of Los Angeles International Airport and its first incarnation as Mines Field was drawn from notes taken during a trip to the airport’s Flight Path Learning Center, which has kept Ford A.


pages: 348 words: 39,850

Data Scientists at Work by Sebastian Gutierrez

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Albert Einstein, algorithmic trading, Bayesian statistics, bioinformatics, bitcoin, business intelligence, chief data officer, clean water, cloud computing, commoditize, computer vision, continuous integration, correlation does not imply causation, creative destruction, crowdsourcing, data is the new oil, DevOps, domain-specific language, Donald Knuth, follow your passion, full text search, informal economy, information retrieval, Infrastructure as a Service, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), inventory management, iterative process, lifelogging, linked data, Mark Zuckerberg, microbiome, Moneyball by Michael Lewis explains big data, move fast and break things, move fast and break things, natural language processing, Network effects, nuclear winter, optical character recognition, pattern recognition, Paul Graham, personalized medicine, Peter Thiel, pre–internet, quantitative hedge fund, quantitative trading / quantitative finance, recommendation engine, Renaissance Technologies, Richard Feynman, Richard Feynman, self-driving car, side project, Silicon Valley, Skype, software as a service, speech recognition, statistical model, Steve Jobs, stochastic process, technology bubble, text mining, the scientific method, web application

This ensures that the information cannot be abused for purposes that it wasn’t intended for. So ensuring the privacy of individuals and organizations will be important. In our work at Planet OS, I see just how little is being done about the environment. So having access to environmental data through all the sensors that are out there in an integrated form will mean a great deal to mankind for understanding the impact we have on the planet. Right now, IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] reports come out at such a slow pace that it’s just unacceptable compared to the rate of change we see are actually seeing and the volatilities that we see in the environment. Having great means for insight into that data and what is actually happening will be very valuable. Another interesting area is being able to look at cities as you would look at an organism. In particular, city resource mining so that there is less waste is highly relevant and important as the world’s population continues to get more concentrated into cities.

., 139 UMSI, 148 Wall Street, 131 Wilson, Fred (investors), 141 Electrical engineering and computer science (EECS), 295 Embedding, 52 F www.it-ebooks.info Index G Galene, 87 Global Bay Mobile Technologies, 131 Google, 89, 91, 311 LeCun,Yann, 58 Lenaghan, Jonathan, 185, 197 Smallwood, Caitlin, 27 Tunkelang, Daniel, 89, 91 Grameen Foundation, 319 H Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS), 195 Hadoop software, 103 Heineike, Amy advice to fresher, 254 Cambridge University, 239 career, 240 Crawford, Kate (researcher), 250 Cukier, Kenneth (big data editor), 250 data exploration, 251 data science colleagues, 257 data visualization, 239, 245 Director of Mathematics, 239, 241 economic consultancy work, 246 engineering team, 242 first data set, 247 government agencies, 239 The Guardian, 249 hedge funds, 239 hiring people, 255 machine learning, 239, 245 math and programming interest, 246 natural language processing, 239 network diagram, 251 network science, 239, 245 new data streams, 244 news sources, 244 next challenges, 249 NLP, 245 optimize user experience, 255 Ormerod, Paul (director), 247 own success measurement, 252 Quid’s product, 242 research and strategy analysis, 248 Rosewell, Bridget (director), 248 scaling up, 244 Software-as-a-Service platform, 242 software development toolkit, 249 spreadsheet/PowerPoint slide, 245 Strata conference, 250 study and analyze, 252 tools/techniques, 256 Twitter feed/posts, 249, 253 typical day, 251 users, 253 Volterra Consulting, 247 Hu,Victor advanced machine learning, 272 advice to fresher, 269 artist evolution, 267 Billboard 200, 266 book division, 264 Chief Data Scientist, (Next Big Sound), 259 college life, 260 cross-sectional analyses, 271 D3.js visualizations, 268 DataKind Data Dive, 269 data management track, 262 data team structure, 265 effective data visualization, 262 effective writing, 262 first project, 264 forecasting album sales, 263 hiring data scientists, 268 impactful feedback, 270 Java and PHP, 268 machine learning techniques, 262, 264 modeling process, 268 new skills, 262 NLP projects, 270 nonwork data sets, 270 personal believe, 272 PrestoDB, 268 product team and customer team, 266 record label deal, 264 R/Python, 268 skill acquisition, 261 social and music industry data, 263 social media, 263 SoundCloud, 263 theoretical techniques, 266 traditional industries, 260 Twitter profile, 265 two-week project cycles, 265 Yankees experience, 261 www.it-ebooks.info 337 338 Index I new BRAIN initiative, 295 nontechnical advice, 317 other people’s work expedition, 309 Palantir, 300–301 Peter Norvig philosophy, 311 Peter Thiel’s group, 294 Peter Thiel’s venture capital firm, 293 as PhD student, 303 PhD theses, 300 predictive analytics, 311 Prior Knowledge (PK), 294, 302 “Probability Theory: The Logic of Science”, 316 problem solving, 308 Python, 306 quantitative and computational science, 316 research scientist, 293 Salesforce, 302 science tool companies, 301 Sebastian Seung’s group, 296 as startup CEO, 303 study and analyze, 295, 297, 305 TechCrunch Disrupt, 294 VC money, 307 IA Ventures, 131 Institute for Data Sciences and Engineering (IDSE), 1 International Conference on Learning Representation (ICLR), 51 Invite Media, 131, 137 J Jonas, Eric advice to fresher, 313 Bayesian models, 306 Bayesian nonparametric models, 315 Bayesian statistical community, 294 Berkeley’s AMPLab, 312 biological systems, 299 Brown, Scott (CEO of Vicarious and Bob Mcgrew), 300 C++, 306 Chief Predictive Scientist, 293 C++ numerical methods, 317 computational neuroscience, 298, 311 COSYNE conference, 296, 303 DARPA, 307 data sets, 312 dating spread sheet, 310 EECS and BCS sciences, 297 experiences, 300 Founders Fund, 294 funding agencies, 298 Grande Data problems, 312 Hadoop, 307 Harvard Business Review, 311 hiring people, 314 as independent researcher, 304 Kording, Konrad (scientist), 296 LASSO-based linear regression system, 316 Levie, Aaron (Box CEO), 295 machine learning models, 293 Markov chain Monte Carlo, 315 Matplotlib, 309 Nature Reviews Genetics, 300 Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 300 Navia Systems, 293 neuroscience research, 294 neuroscience tools, 301 K Karpištšenko, André ADCP, 223 advice to starter, 235 atmosphere capturing data, 221 Brute-force analytics, 231 career, 222 challenges, 234 climate changes, 226 co-founder and research lead (Planet OS), 221 co-founder (ASA Quality Services), 221 communication patterns, 225 Cornell and Rutgers (partners), 227 create models, 237 creating and writing software, 237 daily operation decisions, 222 data mining methods, 225 data privacy and trust, 223 data science, future of, 234 engineering and calibration tools, 225 engineering, data, and technology side, 222 www.it-ebooks.info Index European environmental agency, 224 FuturICT program, 224 Gephi, 231 Greenplum, 231 hiring, 232 insurance companies, 227 investment decisions, 222 IPCC reports, 237 Kaggle data science community, 228 machine learning methods, 225 model-driven development, 224 music generation algorithms, 237 NASA, 227 National Data Buoy Center profilers, 223 NOAA, 227 ocean infrastructure, 223 oceanography, 222 OPeNDAP data exchange protocol, 228 past year project, 233 people’s work, expectation, 234 personal operational things, 229 physical world, 226 problem solving, 230 public transport ticketing system, 224 Python, 231 R, 231 Sharemind, 236 shipping, oil, and gas industries, 226 success and measure success, 229 team building, 232 team members, 223 Vowpal Wabbit, 232 Weka, 232 Keyhole Markup Language (KML), 166 Knight Foundation, 319 L LASSO-based linear regression system, 316 LeCun,Yann academic scientific disciplines, 63 AI research materials, 50 artificial neural networks with back-propagation, 45 check-reading/check-recognition system, 52 content analysis and understanding users, 57 convolutional net, 53 CVPR 2014 conference papers, 57 daily work, 54 data sets, 50 deep learning, 45, 47, 52 Director of AI Research, Facebook, 45–46 DjVu system, 54 educational courses, 64 EMNLP 2014 papers, 57 experimental work, 60 first data set, 49 future of data science, 62 grad school, 48 graduation,VLSI integrated circuit design and automatic control, 48 graphical models, 51 Hinton,Geoff, 48 hiring research scientists and exceptional engineers, 65 ICML conference, 51 Image Processing Research Department head, AT&T Bell Labs, 45–46 image recognition, 57 industry impacts deployed things, 55 intellectual impact, 54 research projects, 55 initial understanding of data science, 65 innovative and creative work, 60 inspired work, 59 interest in AI, 48 kernel methods, 51 language translation, 64 long-term goal, understanding intelligence, 47 machine learning, 51–52 mathematical virtuosity, 60 Memory Networks, 57 multi-layer neural nets learning, 48 natural language, 52, 57 NEC Research Institute, 45 opportunities for data science, 65 opportunity at Facebook, 46 organizing research lab, 55 radar techniques, 51 www.it-ebooks.info 339 340 Index LeCun,Yann (cont.) robotics, Google, 58 Sejnowski, Terry, 48 shorter-term goal, understanding content, 47 Silver Professor of Computer Science, New York University, 45–46 solving right problem, 58 supervised and unsupervised learning, 46 support vector machines, 51 team members, 46 tools Lush project, 56 Torch 7, 56 undergrad, electrical engineering, 47 unsupervised learning, 61 Lenaghan, Jonathan career, 179, 182 engineering practices, 198 financial vs. ad tech industry, 184 Google, 197 high-frequency algorithmic trading, 183 mathematical consistency, 183 overfitting models, 183 packages and libraries, 196 Physical Review in Brookhaven, 183 PlaceIQ academic literature, 185 academic research, 185 ad-request logs, 181 ad-supported apps, 189 Air Traveler audience, 192 algorithmic trading, 180 Amazon’s S3 service, 194 ambient background location app, 184 architecture and long-term planning, 186 augmented intelligence service, 190 building models, 186 campaigns, 186 C++ and Perl, 190 Clojure projects, 195 data science team, 186 data scientist, 180 data sets, 180 data volume, 183 demographic results, 193 device IDs, 194 discussions with account managers, 187 domain, 190 explosive growth, 186 final output and functionality, 187 financial services, 180 geography, 185 geospatial layer, 182 geospatial location analytics, 181 geospatial visualization, 191 Google, 185 high-QPS and low-latency environment, 196 human behavior, 185 identifier, 194 ingest, transformation, and contextualization, 182 initial prototype, 188 interview process, 195 Julia, 195 location targeting, 192 matplotlib, 191 meetup, 180 mobile ads and location intelligence, 179 munging data, 191 ontology/taxonomy, 192 potential APIs, 190 problem solving, 187, 194 product/troubleshooting meetings, 187 prototype code, 188 prototype performs, 188 Python, 190 qualitative terms, 182 query language, 192–193 real-time processing and computation affects, 196 residential/nonresidential classifiers, 193 scaling test, 188 self-critical, 195 smartphones, 189 social anthropology, 189 spatial dimension testing, 188 temporal data, 191 tile level, 192 www.it-ebooks.info Index time periods, 180 urgency, 184 quantitative fields, 197 quantitative finance industry, 183 quantum chromodynamics, 182 relational queries, 196 software engineering skills, 198 Starbucks, 197 statistical analyses, 196 tech ad space, 181 testing, 198 LinkedIn, 34, 83 Lua programming language, 56 M Magnetic, 131 MailChimp.com, 108 Mandrill, 111–112 Media6Degrees, 151 Moneyball, 260 N National Data Buoy Center profilers, 223 National Security Agency, 107 Natural language, 52, 57 Natural Language Processing (NLP), 245 Netflix Culture, 20 Network operations Center (NOC), 120 The New York Times (NYT), 1 Neural net version 1.0, 48 Neural net winter, 48 Next Big Sound, 259 O O’Reilly Strata, 95 P, Q PANDA, 57 Perlich, Claudia AAAI, 162 advertising exchanges, 154 algorithm sorts list, 167 appreciation, 168 artificial neural networks, 152 Bayesian theory, 172 career, 151 challenges, 158 chief scientist (Dstillery), 151 communication, 171 Dstillery’s history and focus, 153 engineering team, 167 first data set, 158 fraud problem, 160 Hadoop cluster, 165 hire data scientists, 173 IBM’s Watson Research Center, 152 insight translate, 158 interview, 172 Journal of Advertising Research and American Marketing Association, 161 Kaggle website, 177 KML, 166 learning lessons, 166–167 long-tailed distributions, 170 machine learning techniques, 177 managerial responsibilities, 154 marksmanship, 167 matchmaking, 169 medical field, 175–176 Melinda approach, 172 Nielsen reports, 172 nonwork data puzzles, 157 NoSQL, 165 NYU Stern Business School, 152 PhD program, 152 photo-sharing URL, 154 present and future, data science, 174 prototype building tasks, 164 Provost, Foster (PhD advisor), 153 puzzles, 156 responsibilities, 155 routine tasks, 163 single-numbered aggregates, 170 statistical measures, 170 SVMlight, 165 teach data mining, 151 team members, 154 typical day, 161 www.it-ebooks.info 341 342 Index Perlich, Claudia (cont.) typical intellectual leadership day, 162 typical modeling and analysis day, 162 Personally identifiable information (PII), 181 Porway, Jake academia/government labs, 331 Amnesty International, 323–324 artificial intelligence, 325 career, 319 communication/translation challenges, 322 computer vision course, 325 data science, future of, 330 ethical responsibility, 331 founder and executive director (DataKind), 319 global chapter network, 323 Grameen Foundation’s Community Knowledge Program, 327 “The Human Face of Big Data”, 326 hunger alleviation experts, 321 Kenyan village, 322 Kirkpatrick, Robert (UN Global Pulse), 332 “The Macroscope”, 329 measure success, 330 Netflix, 325 New York Times, 324 OkCupid, 332 personal philosophies, 332 PhD program, 326 playbook, 322 problem solving, 325 pro bono service, 324 Rees, Kim, 329 Stanford Social Innovation Review, 327 statistical background, 331 statistics department, 326 team and organization, 320 Thorp, Jer, 329 typical workday, 327 volunteer, 325 volunteer data scientists, 322 Predictive Analytics Innovation Summit Chicago 2013 conference, 262 Prior Knowledge (PK), 293 R Radinsky, Kira computer science bioinformatics, 280 causality graph, 282 causes and effects, 283 cholera outbreaks, 284 computer games, 280 earthquakes, 282–283 Google Trends, 281 history patterns, 283 iPad, 283 Mayan calendar, 281 Microsoft research, 284–285 oxygen depletion, 281–282 Russian language, 280 storylines, 283 Technion External Studies program, 281 workshops, 285 data scientists hiring data science skills, 288 data stack, 289–290 government-backed research data sets, 290 medical data sets, 290 personal philosophy, 289 problem domain, 288 problem perception, 288 self-building algorithms, 290 smartphones, 290 team building, 288 toolkits and techniques, 288 data structures, 291 genetic hardware, 291 learning resources, 291 problem solving data science, and big data, 286 engineers, 286 lectures, 286 passion, 292 SalesPredict artificial intelligence, 285 buyer persona, 279 cloud-based solution, 275 customer based challenges, 276 customer’s perception, 279 www.it-ebooks.info Index customer’s website data, 276 data distributors, 279 data-specific challenges, 277 decision making, 274 engineering task, 287 engineering team, 275 global data changes, 280 hiring people, 287–288 HR department, tackling, 274 issues, 278 Java and Scala, 286 money spending, 274 MySQL and NoSQL, 286 ontology, 280 performance, 278 pilot customer, 274 problem solving, 287 salesperson, 278 sales process, 277 senior engineer, 279 statistical model, 277 web crawlers, 276 S Shellman, Erin advice to data scientists, 81 advice to undergrads, 70 beauty replenishment project, 77 beauty stylists, 73 company-wide open-door policy, 72 Confluence, 79 cost-benefit conversation, 78 data lab structure, 68 develop ideas, 76 experiment, 73 fashion retail industry, 74 freeing data scientists, 80 HauteLook and Trunk Club, 74 internal customers, 72 kanban board, 75 Lancôme and M•A•C, 78 machine learning class, 81 measuring success, 75 NIH internship, 70 other companies, 73 pair programing, 68 people relationship, 72 predictive modeling, 80 presentation skills, 80 programming and computer science, 70 quantitative and computational skills, 71 recommendations, 71 recommendation strategy, 78 Recommendo, 71, 75 Recommendo API, 77 R programmer, 69 Segmento, 71 SKU turnover, 77 STEM subject, 81 under graduation, 69 Wickham’s, Hadley work, 79 work area, 68 SIGIR conferences, 95 Skype, 221–222, 225, 230–231 Smallwood, Caitlin A/B test, 37 algorithm, 23, 42 Amazon, 34 analytics meeting, 28 analytics pre-Internet, 20 appreciation change, 36 basic data, 42 brainstorming meeting, 27 business priorities, 32 camaraderie, 35 collaborative environment, 42 company strategies, 21 content acquiring model, 29 custom model implementation, 31 data capture, 32 data-centric organizations, 20 data culture, 21 egoless attitude, 40 experience, 39, 42 experimentation, 23, 28, 30 experimentation-heavy culture, 28 Gomez-Uribe, Carlos (colleague), 34 Google search, 27 health care data sharing, 39 HiQ Labs, 34 hunger and insatiable curiosity, 36 Hunt, Neil (manager), 20 incredibly creative and innovative, 43 interesting insights, 35 internet data products, 19 internet entertainment, 24 www.it-ebooks.info 343 344 Index Smallwood, Caitlin (cont.)


pages: 1,773 words: 486,685

Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century by Geoffrey Parker

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agricultural Revolution, British Empire, Climatic Research Unit, colonial rule, creative destruction, currency manipulation / currency intervention, Defenestration of Prague, Edmond Halley, en.wikipedia.org, European colonialism, failed state, Fellow of the Royal Society, financial independence, friendly fire, Google Earth, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Isaac Newton, Joseph Schumpeter, Khyber Pass, mass immigration, Mercator projection, moral hazard, mortgage debt, Peace of Westphalia, Peter Thiel, Republic of Letters, sexual politics, South China Sea, the market place, trade route, transatlantic slave trade, transatlantic slave trade, unemployed young men, University of East Anglia, World Values Survey, zero-sum game

Before governments had time to enact these resolutions, however, the ‘shadow of a world food crisis’ disappeared thanks to the ‘Green Revolution’: new high-yielding varieties of wheat, maize and rice, combined with the increased use of irrigation, fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides, dramatically increased food production. Famines virtually disappeared from the headlines and climate change virtually disappeared from the research agenda of historians.3 Then in 1990 the ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ (IPCC), another United Nations initiative, issued its first Assessment Report, summarizing the research of ‘several hundred working scientists from 25 countries’. The document claimed that ‘emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases’, and that without immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, ‘additional warming of the Earth's surface’ was inevitable.

Norberg, eds, Fiscal crises, liberty, and representative government, 1450–1789 (Stanford, 1994) Horner, R. W., ‘The Thames Barrier Project’, Geographical Journal, CXLV (1979), 242–53 Hoskins, W. G., ‘Harvest fluctuations and English economic history, 1620–1759’, Agricultural History Review, XVI (1968), 15–31 Houghton, J. T., G. J. Jenkins and J. J. Ephraums, eds, Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment Report prepared for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Working Group I (Cambridge, 1990) Houston, R. A., Punishing the dead? Suicide, lordship and community in Britain, 1500–1830 (Oxford, 2010) Howard, D. A., ‘Ottoman historiography and the literature of “decline” of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries’, Journal of Asian History, XXII (1988), 52–77 Howell, D. L., Capitalism from within: Economy, society and the state in a Japanese fishery (Berkeley, 1995) Hoyt, D.

Report of the World Food Conference, Rome, 5–16 November 1974 (New York, 1975), 6–8 (at FAORLC-41001WorldFoodConference doc, accessed 9 Mar. 2012. Note that in 1981, two years after the University of East Anglia conference, Amartya Sen published his influential Poverty and famines, arguing that famine reflected faulty distribution rather than defective production: see page 108 above. 4. Houghton, Climate, xi (‘Executive summary’) http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_spm.pdf 5. http://inhofe.senate.gov/pressreleases/climateupdate.htm Speech by Senator Inhofe in the US Senate, 4 Jan. 2005 quoting with approval his speech on 28 July 2003. In another speech about ‘the most media-hyped environmental issue of all time, global warming’ on 25 Sep. 2006, the senator stated: ‘The media often asks me about how much I have received in campaign contributions from the fossil fuel industry.


pages: 471 words: 109,267

The Verdict: Did Labour Change Britain? by Polly Toynbee, David Walker

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banking crisis, Big bang: deregulation of the City of London, Bob Geldof, call centre, central bank independence, congestion charging, Corn Laws, Credit Default Swap, decarbonisation, deglobalization, deindustrialization, Etonian, failed state, first-past-the-post, Frank Gehry, gender pay gap, Gini coefficient, high net worth, hiring and firing, illegal immigration, income inequality, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), knowledge economy, labour market flexibility, market bubble, mass immigration, millennium bug, moral panic, North Sea oil, Northern Rock, offshore financial centre, pension reform, Plutocrats, plutocrats, Ponzi scheme, profit maximization, purchasing power parity, Right to Buy, shareholder value, Skype, smart meter, stem cell, The Spirit Level, too big to fail, University of East Anglia, working-age population, Y2K

But lack of training and, the MPs might have added, the inadequacy of the City of London toytown police – part of the anomalous governance of the Square Mile that Labour had mysteriously left alone – produced the indelible video image of a passer-by being pushed to the ground by a burly officer; the man died. The inquiry into the death passed to the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC), revamped and given a four-fold increase in budget by Labour – mitigating the charge of oppressiveness. In 2007–8 the IPCC opened 100 new investigations, compared with 31 in 2004–5. The increase came in part from Human Rights Act case law and in part because of improved public access to the police complaints system. The release of previously secret reports on an older demonstration death, of Blair Peach in 1978, showed the system opening up; Labour deserved some credit.

., 1 Gallagher, Liam, 1 Gallagher, Noel, 1 gambling, 1 gangmasters, 1, 2 gas, 1 Gates, Bill, 1 Gateshead, 1 Gaza, 1 GCHQ, 1 GCSEs, 1, 2, 3, 4 Gehry, Frank, 1 Geldof, Bob, 1 gender reassignment, 1 General Teaching Council, 1 genetically modified crops, 1 Germany, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 economy and business, 1, 2, 3, 4 and education, 1, 2 and health, 1, 2 Ghana, 1 Ghandi’s curry house, 1 Ghent, 1 Gladstone, William Ewart, 1, 2 Glaister, Professor Stephen, 1 Glasgow, 1, 2, 3, 4 Gleneagles summit, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 globalization, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and crime, 1 and foreign policy, 1, 2, 3 and inequality, 1 and migration, 1, 2 Gloucester, 1 Goldacre, Ben, 1 Good Friday agreement, 1 Goodwin, Sir Fred, 1 Goody, Jade, 1 Gormley, Antony, 1 Gould, Philip, 1 grandparents, and childcare, 1 Gray, Simon, 1 Great Yarmouth, 1 Greater London Authority, 1, 2 Greater London Council, 1 green spaces, 1 Greenberg, Stan, 1 Greengrass, Paul, 1 Greenspan, Alan, 1, 2 Greenwich, 1 Gregg, Paul, 1 Guardian, 1, 2, 3 Guizot, François, 1 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, 1 Gummer, John, 1 Gurkhas, 1 Guthrie of Craigiebank, Lord, 1 Guy’s and St Thomas’s Hospital, 1 habeas corpus, suspension of, 1 Hacienda Club, 1 Hackney, 1 Hale, Baroness Brenda, 1 Hallé Orchestra, 1 Ham, Professor Chris, 1 Hamilton, Lewis, 1 Hammersmith Hospital, 1 Hammond, Richard, 1 Hardie, Keir, 1 Hardy, Thea, 1 Haringey, 1, 2 Harman, Harriet, 1 Harris of Peckham, Lord, 1 Harrison, PC Dawn, 1, 2 Harrow School, 1 Hartlepool, 1, 2 Hastings, 1, 2 Hatfield rail crash, 1 Hatt family, 1, 2, 3, 4 health, 1 and private sector, 1, 2 and social class, 1 spending on, 1, 2 Health Action Zones, 1 Health and Safety Executive, 1 Heathcote, Paul, 1 Heathrow airport, 1, 2, 3, 4 Hellawell, Keith, 1 Hennessy, Professor Peter, 1 Henry, Donna Charmaine, 1, 2, 3 heroin, 1 Hewitt, Patricia, 1, 2 Higgs, Sir Derek, 1 Hills, Professor John, 1, 2, 3 Hirst, Damien, 1 HMRC, 1, 2, 3 Hogg, John, 1, 2, 3 Hoggart, Richard, 1 Holly, Graham, 1 homelessness, 1, 2 Homerton Hospital, 1 homosexuality, 1, 2, 3 ‘honour’ killings, 1 Hoon, Geoff, 1 hospital-acquired infections, 1 hospitals and clinics, 1, 2, 3, 4 A&E units, 1, 2 closures, 1, 2, 3 foundation trusts, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and PFI, 1 House of Commons reforms, 1, 2 House of Lords reforms, 1, 2, 3, 4 housing market, 1, 2, 3 housing policies, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Howe, Elspeth, 1 Hoxton, 1 Huddersfield, 1 Hudson, Joseph, 1 Hull, 1, 2, 3 Human Rights Act, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Humber Bridge, 1 hunting ban, 1 Hussein, Saddam, 1, 2, 3, 4 Hutton, John, 1 Hutton, Will, 1, 2 identity cards, 1, 2 If (Kipling), 1 Imperial War Museum North, 1 income inequalities, 1, 2, 3 gender pay gap, 1, 2 and high earners, 1 and social class, 1 Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC), 1 Independent Safeguarding Authority, 1 independent-sector treatment centres (ISTCs), 1 Index of Multiple Deprivation, 1 India, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 individual learning accounts, 1 inflation, 1 and housing market, 1, 2 International Criminal Court, 1 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 1, 2, 3 internet, 1, 2, 3 and crime, 1 and cyber-bullying, 1 file sharing, 1 gambling, 1 and sex crimes, 1 Iran, 1, 2, 3 Iraq, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 arms supplies, 1 Chilcot inquiry, 1, 2, 3, 4 and Territorial Army, 1 and WMD, 1 Ireland, 1, 2, 3 Irish famine, 1 Irvine of Lairg, Lord, 1, 2 Ishaq, Khyra, 1 Islamabad, 1 Isle of Man, 1 Isle of Wight, 1, 2 Israel, 1 Italy, 1, 2, 3 and football, 1 Ivory Coast, 1 Japan, 1, 2, 3, 4 Jenkins, Roy, 1, 2 Jerry Springer: The Opera, 1 Jobcentre Plus, 1, 2 John Lewis Partnership, 1, 2 Johnson, Alan, 1, 2, 3, 4 Johnson, Boris, 1, 2 Judge, Lord (Igor), 1 Judge, Professor Ken, 1 Julius, DeAnne, 1 jury trials, 1, 2 Kabul, 1 Kapoor, Anish, 1, 2 Karachi, 1 Karadžic, Radovan, 1 Kashmir, 1 Kaufman, Gerald, 1 Keegan, William, 1 Keep Britain Tidy, 1 Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum, 1 Kensit, Patsy, 1 Keynes, John Maynard, 1 Keys, Kenton, 1 Kidderminster Hospital, 1 King, Sir David, 1, 2 King, Mervyn, 1 King Edward VI School, 1 King’s College Hospital, 1 Kingsnorth power station, 1 Kirklees, 1 Knight, Jim, 1 knighthoods, 1 knowledge economy, 1 Kosovo, 1, 2, 3, 4 Kynaston, David, 1 Kyoto summit and protocols, 1, 2, 3 Labour Party membership, 1 Lacey, David, 1 Ladbroke Grove rail crash, 1 Lamb, General Sir Graeme, 1 Lambert, Richard, 1 landmines, 1 Lansley, Andrew, 1 lapdancing, 1 Las Vegas, 1 Lawrence, Stephen, 1 Lawson, Mark, 1 Layard, Professor Richard, 1 Le Grand, Professor Julian, 1 Lea, Ruth, 1 Lea Valley High School, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Leahy, Sir Terry, 1, 2 learndirect, 1 Learning and Skills Council, 1 learning difficulties, 1, 2 learning mentors, 1 Leeds, 1, 2, 3, 4 legal reforms, 1 Leigh, Mike, 1 Lenon, Barnaby, 1 Lewes, 1 Lewisham, 1 Liberty, 1 licensing laws, 1, 2 life expectancy, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Life on Mars, 1 Lincoln, 1 Lindsell, Tracy, 1, 2 Lindsey oil refinery, 1 Lisbon Treaty, 1 Liverpool, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Liverpool FC, 1 living standards, 1, 2 living wage campaign, 1, 2 Livingstone, Ken, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Livni, Tzipi, 1 Loaded magazine, 1 local government, 1, 2, 3 and elected mayors, 1 Lockerbie bomber, 1 London, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 bombings, 1, 2 congestion charge, 1, 2 detention of foreign leaders, 1 G20 protests, 1 Iraq war protests, 1, 2 mayoral election, 1, 2 and transport policy, 1, 2, 3 London Array wind farm, 1 Longannet, 1 Longfield, Anne, 1 Lord-Marchionne, Sacha, 1 Lorenzetti, Ambrogio, 1 lorry protests, 1, 2 Lowry Museum, 1 Lumley, Joanna, 1 Luton, 1, 2, 3, 4 Lyons, Sir Michael, 1 Macfadden, Julia, 1 Machin, Professor Stephen, 1, 2 Maclean, David, 1 Macmillan, Harold, 1 Macmillan, James, 1 McNulty, Tony, 1 Macpherson, Sir Nick, 1 Macpherson, Sir William, 1 McQueen, Alexander, 1 Madrid, 1, 2, 3 Major, John, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Malaya, 1 Malloch Brown, Mark, 1 Manchester, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 club scene, 1, 2 and crime, 1, 2 Gorton, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and local government, 1 and transport policy, 1, 2, 3 Manchester Academy, 1 Manchester United FC, 1, 2 Manchester University, 1 Mandelson, Peter, 1, 2 Manpower Services Commission, 1 manufacturing, 1, 2, 3 Margate, 1 ‘market for talent’ myth, 1 marriage rate, 1 Martin, Michael, 1 maternity and paternity leave, 1, 2 Mayfield, Charlie, 1 Medical Research Council, 1 mental health, 1, 2, 3, 4 mephedrone, 1 Metcalf, Professor David, 1 Metropolitan Police, 1, 2, 3 Mexico, 1, 2 MG Rover, 1 Michael, Alun, 1 Middlesbrough College, 1, 2 migration, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 Milburn, Alan, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Miliband, David, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Miliband, Ed, 1, 2, 3 Millennium Cohort Study, 1, 2 Millennium Dome, 1, 2, 3 Miloševic, Slobodan, 1 Milton Keynes, 1 minimum wage, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Mitchell, Senator George, 1 modern art, 1 Mohamed, Binyam, 1 Monbiot, George, 1 Moray, 1 Morecambe, 1, 2 Morecambe Bay cockle pickers, 1 Morgan, Piers, 1 Morgan, Rhodri, 1 mortgage interest relief, 1 Mosley, Max, 1 motor racing, 1 Mowlam, Mo, 1 Mozambique, 1 MPs’ expenses, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 MRSA, 1 Mugabe, Robert, 1 Muijen, Matt, 1 Mulgan, Geoff, 1 Mullin, Chris, 1 Murdoch, Rupert, 1, 2, 3 Murphy, Richard, 1 museums and galleries, 1, 2, 3 music licensing, 1 Muslims, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 mutualism, 1 Myners, Paul, 1 nanotechnology, 1, 2, 3 National Air Traffic Control System, 1 National Care Service, 1 national curriculum, 1 national debt, 1 National Forest, 1 National Health Service (NHS) cancer plan, 1 drugs teams, 1 and employment, 1, 2 internal market, 1 IT system, 1 league tables, 1 managers, 1, 2 NHS direct, 1 primary care, 1 productivity, 1, 2 and public satisfaction, 1 staff numbers and pay, 1 and targets, 1, 2, 3 waiting times, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 National Heart Forum, 1 National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), 1, 2 National Insurance, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 National Lottery, 1, 2, 3 National Offender Management Service, 1 National Savings, 1 National Theatre, 1 Natural England, 1, 2 Nazio, Tiziana, 1 Neighbourhood Watch, 1 Netherlands, 1, 2 neurosurgery, 1 New Deal, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 New Deal for Communities, 1, 2 New Forest, 1 Newcastle upon Tyne, 1, 2 Newham, 1, 2 newspapers, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Nigeria, 1 Nightingale, Florence, 1 non-doms, 1 North Korea, 1 North Middlesex Hospital, 1 North Sea oil and gas, 1 Northern Ireland, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Northern Rock, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Norway, 1 Nottingham, 1, 2 NSPCC, 1 nuclear power, 1 Number Ten Delivery Unit, 1 nurses, 1, 2, 3, 4 Nutt, Professor David, 1 NVQs, 1 O2 arena, 1 Oakthorpe primary school, 1, 2 Oates, Tim, 1 Obama, Barack, 1, 2 obesity, 1, 2 Octagon consortium, 1 Office for National Statistics, 1, 2 Office of Security and Counter Terrorism, 1 Ofsted, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Ofwat, 1 Oldham, 1, 2, 3, 4 O’Leary, Michael, 1 Oliver, Jamie, 1, 2 Olympic Games, 1, 2, 3 Open University, 1 O’Reilly, Damien, 1, 2 orthopaedics, 1 Orwell, George, 1, 2 outsourcing, 1, 2, 3, 4 overseas aid, 1, 2 Oxford University, 1 paedophiles, 1, 2, 3 Page, Ben, 1, 2 Pakistan, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Palestine, 1, 2 parenting, 1 absent parents, 1 lone parents, 1, 2 teenage parents, 1 Paris, 1, 2 Park Lane, 1 Parkinson, Professor Michael, 1 particle physics, 1 party funding, 1, 2, 3 passport fraud, 1 Passport Office, 1 Patch, Harry, 1 Payne, Sarah, 1, 2 Peach, Blair, 1 Pearce, Nick, 1 Peckham, 1, 2 Aylesbury estate, 1 Peel, Sir Robert, 1 pensioner poverty, 1, 2 pensions, 1, 2 occupational pensions, 1, 2 pension funds, 1, 2 private pensions, 1 public-sector pensions, 1 state pension, 1, 2 Persian Gulf, 1 personal, social and health education, 1 Peterborough, 1 Peugeot, 1 Philips, Helen, 1 Phillips, Lord (Nicholas), 1, 2 Phillips, Trevor, 1 Pilkington, Fiona, 1 Pimlico, 1 Pinochet, Augusto, 1 Plymouth, 1, 2 Poland, 1, 2 police, 1 and demonstrations, 1 numbers, 1, 2, 3 in schools, 1, 2, 3 pornography, 1 Portsmouth FC, 1, 2 Portugal, 1 post offices, 1 Postlethwaite, Pete, 1 poverty, 1, 2, 3 see also child poverty; pensioner poverty Premier League, 1 Prescott, John, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 press officers, 1 Preston, 1 Prevent strategy, 1 Primary Care Trusts (PCTs), 1, 2 prisons, 1, 2 Private Finance Initiative (PFI), 1, 2 probation, 1, 2 property ownership, 1 prostitution, 1, 2, 3 Public Accounts Committee, 1 public sector reform, 1, 2 public service agreements, 1 public spending, 1, 2, 3 and the arts, 1 and science, 1 Pugh, Martin, 1 Pullman, Philip, 1 QinetiQ, 1 Quality and Outcomes Framework, 1 quangos, 1, 2 Queen, The, 1 Quentin, Lieutenant Pete, 1, 2 race relations legislation, 1 racism, 1, 2 RAF, 1, 2, 3 RAF Brize Norton, 1 railways, 1 Rand, Ayn, 1 Rawmarsh School, 1 Raynsford, Nick, 1 Reckitt Benckiser, 1 recycling, 1 Redcar, 1 regional assemblies, 1, 2 regional development agencies (RDAs), 1, 2, 3 regional policy, 1 Reid, John, 1 Reid, Richard, 1 religion, 1, 2 retirement age, 1, 2 right to roam, 1 Rimington, Stella, 1 Rio Earth summit, 1 road transport, 1 Rochdale, 1, 2 Roche, Barbara, 1 Rogers, Richard, 1 Romania, 1, 2 Rome, 1 Rooney, Wayne, 1 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 1 Rosetta Stone, 1 Rosyth, 1 Rotherham, 1, 2, 3 Royal Opera House, 1 Royal Shakespeare Company, 1 Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, 1 Rugby, 1 rugby union, 1 Rumsfeld, Donald, 1 rural affairs, 1, 2 Rushdie, Salman, 1 Russia, 1, 2 Rwanda, 1 Ryanair, 1, 2 Sainsbury, Lord David, 1 St Austell, 1 St Bartholomew’s Hospital, 1, 2 St Pancras International station, 1 Salford, 1, 2, 3, 4 Sanchez, Tia, 1 Sandwell, 1 Sarkozy, Nicolas, 1, 2 Savill, Superintendent Paul, 1 Saville, Lord, 1 savings ratio, 1 Scandinavia, 1, 2, 3 Scholar, Sir Michael, 1 school meals, 1, 2 school uniforms, 1 school-leaving age, 1 schools academies, 1, 2, 3, 4 building, 1 class sizes, 1 comprehensive schools, 1, 2 faith schools, 1, 2, 3, 4 grammar schools, 1, 2, 3 and inequality, 1 nursery schools, 1 and PFI, 1, 2, 3 police in, 1, 2, 3 primary schools, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 private schools, 1, 2 secondary schools, 1, 2, 3 in special measures, 1 special schools, 1 specialist schools, 1 and sport, 1 science, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Scotland, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and children, 1 devolution, 1 electricity generation, 1 and health, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Scottish parliament, 1, 2 Section 1, 2 security services, 1 MI5, 1, 2, 3 Sedley, Stephen, 1 segregation, 1 self-employment, 1 Sellafield, 1 Serious Organized Crime Agency, 1 sex crimes, 1 Sex Discrimination Act, 1 Shankly, Bill, 1 Sharkey, Feargal, 1 Shaw, Liz, 1 Sheen, Michael, 1 Sheffield, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Sheringham, 1 Shetty, Shilpa, 1 Shipman, Harold, 1 shopping, 1 Short, Clare, 1 Siemens, 1 Siena, 1 Sierra Leone, 1, 2 Skeet, Mavis, 1 skills councils, 1 slavery, 1 Slough, 1 Smith, Adam, 1 Smith, Chris, 1 Smith, Jacqui, 1, 2 Smith, John, 1, 2 Smithers, Professor Alan, 1, 2 smoking ban, 1, 2 Snowden, Philip, 1 social care, 1, 2, 3 Social Chapter opt-out, 1 social exclusion, 1, 2 Social Fund, 1 social mobility, 1, 2 social sciences, 1 social workers, 1 Soham murders, 1, 2, 3, 4 Solihull, 1, 2 Somalia, 1, 2 Souter, Brian, 1 South Africa, 1 South Downs, 1 Spain, 1, 2, 3 special advisers, 1 speed cameras, 1 Speenhamland, 1 Spelman, Caroline, 1 Spence, Laura, 1 sport, 1, 2 see also football; Olympic Games Sri Lanka, 1, 2 Stafford Hospital, 1 Staffordshire University, 1 Standard Assessment Tests (Sats), 1, 2, 3 Standards Board for England, 1 statins, 1, 2, 3 stem cell research, 1 STEM subjects, 1 Stephenson, Sir Paul, 1 Stern, Sir Nicholas, 1, 2 Stevenson, Lord (Dennis), 1 Stevenson, Wilf, 1 Steyn, Lord, 1 Stiglitz, Joseph, 1 Stockport, 1 Stonehenge, 1 Stoppard, Tom, 1 Straw, Jack, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 student fees, 1 Stuff Happens, 1 Sudan, 1, 2 Sugar, Alan, 1 suicide bombing, 1 suicides, 1 Sun, 1, 2 Sunday Times, 1, 2 Sunderland, 1, 2 supermarkets, 1, 2 Supreme Court, 1, 2 Sure Start, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 surveillance, 1, 2 Sutherland, Lord (Stewart), 1 Swansea, 1 Sweden, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Swindon, 1 Taliban, 1, 2 Tallinn, 1 Tanzania, 1 Tate Modern, 1 Taunton, 1 tax avoidance, 1, 2, 3 tax credits, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 council tax credit, 1 pension credit, 1, 2, 3 R&D credits, 1 taxation, 1, 2 10p tax rate, 1 capital gains tax, 1, 2 corporation tax, 1, 2, 3, 4 council tax, 1, 2 fuel duty, 1, 2, 3 green taxes, 1, 2 and income inequalities, 1 income tax, 1, 2, 3, 4 inheritance tax, 1, 2 poll tax, 1 stamp duty, 1, 2, 3 vehicle excise duty, 1 windfall tax, 1, 2, 3 see also National Insurance; VAT Taylor, Damilola, 1 Taylor, Robert, 1 teachers, 1, 2, 3 head teachers, 1, 2 salaries, 1, 2 teaching assistants, 1, 2 teenage pregnancy, 1, 2, 3 Teesside University, 1 television and crime, 1 and gambling, 1 talent shows, 1 television licence, 1, 2, 3 Territorial Army, 1 terrorism, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Terry, John, 1 Tesco, 1, 2, 3, 4 Tewkesbury, 1 Thames Gateway, 1 Thameswey, 1 Thatcher, Margaret, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 Thatcherism, 1, 2, 3 theatre, 1 Thornhill, Dorothy, 1 Thorp, John, 1 Tibet, 1 Tilbury, 1 Times, The, 1 Times Educational Supplement, 1, 2 Timmins, Nick, 1 Titanic, 1 Tomlinson, Mike, 1 Topman, Simon, 1, 2 torture, 1, 2 trade unions, 1, 2, 3 Trades Union Congress (TUC), 1, 2, 3 tramways, 1 transport policies, 1, 2 Trident missiles, 1, 2, 3 Triesman, Lord, 1 Turkey, 1, 2 Turnbull, Lord (Andrew), 1 Turner, Lord (Adair), 1, 2, 3 Tweedy, Colin, 1 Tyneside Metro, 1 Uganda, 1 UK Film Council, 1 UK Sport, 1 UK Statistics Authority, 1 unemployment, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 United Nations, 1, 2, 3 United States of America, 1, 2 Anglo-American relationship, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and child poverty, 1 and clean technologies, 1 economy and business, 1, 2, 3 and education, 1, 2, 3 and healthcare, 1, 2 and income inequalities, 1 and internet gambling, 1 and minimum wage, 1 universities, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and migration, 1 and terrorism, 1 tuition fees, 1 University College London Hospitals, 1 University for Industry, 1 University of East Anglia, 1 University of Lincoln, 1 Urban Splash, 1, 2 Vanity Fair, 1 VAT, 1, 2, 3 Vauxhall, 1 Venables, Jon, 1 Vestas wind turbines, 1 Victoria and Albert Museum, 1 Waitrose, 1 Waldfogel, Jane, 1 Wales, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and children, 1 devolution, 1 Walker, Sir David, 1 walking, 1, 2 Walsall, 1 Wanless, Sir Derek, 1 Wanstead, 1 Warm Front scheme, 1 Warner, Lord Norman, 1 Warsaw, 1 Warwick accord, 1 water utilities, 1 Watford, 1 welfare benefits child benefit, 1, 2 Employment Support Allowance, 1 and fraud, 1, 2, 3, 4 housing benefit, 1 incapacity benefit, 1, 2 Income Support, 1 Jobseeker’s Allowance, 1, 2, 3 and work, 1, 2 Welsh assembly, 1, 2 Wembley Stadium, 1 Westfield shopping mall, 1 Wetherspoons, 1 White, Marco Pierre, 1 Whittington Hospital, 1 Wiles, Paul, 1 Wilkinson, Richard, and Kate Pickett, 1 Williams, Professor Karel, 1 Williams, Raymond, 1 Williams, Rowan, 1 Wilson, Harold, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Wilson, Sir Richard, 1 wind turbines, 1, 2 Winslet, Kate, 1 winter fuel payments, 1 Wire, The, 1 Woking, 1, 2 Wolverhampton, 1 Woolf, Lord, 1 Wootton Bassett, 1, 2 working-class culture, 1 working hours, 1, 2 World Bank, 1 Wrexham, 1 Wright Robinson School, 1, 2, 3 xenophobia, 1 Y2K millennium bug, 1 Yarlswood detention centre, 1 Yeovil, 1 Yiewsley, 1 York, 1, 2, 3, 4 Young Person’s Guarantee, 1 Youth Justice Board, 1 Zimbabwe, 1, 2 About the Author Polly Toynbee is the Guardian’s social and political commentator.